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Today — 10 January 2025News

Reeves heads to China as pressure continues over market trouble

10 January 2025 at 11:52
PA Media Rachel Reeves speaking to the media at a banking hubPA Media

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is travelling to China in a bid to boost trade and economic ties, as she faces pressure over government borrowing costs hitting their highest level in years.

The three day-visit has been criticised by some Conservatives who claim she should have cancelled the trip to prioritise dealing with economic issues at home.

Government borrowing costs have hit their highest levels for several years, meaning that uses up more tax revenue, leaving less money to spend on other things.

Economists have warned this could mean spending cuts affecting public services or tax rises that could hit people's pay or businesses' ability to grow.

On Thursday, the pound fell to its lowest level in more than a year - but the Treasury said markets continued to "function in an orderly way".

Travelling to China with the chancellor are senior financial figures, including the governor of the Bank of England and the chair of HSBC.

There she will meet China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing before flying to Shanghai for discussion with UK firms operating in China.

The government is looking to revive an annual economic dialogue with China that has not been held since the pandemic.

Ties have been strained in recent years by growing concerns about the actions of China's Communist leaders, allegations of Chinese hacking and spying and its jailing of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong.

The Conservatives have criticised the chancellor for proceeding with the planned trip rather than staying in the UK to address the cost of government borrowing and slide in the value of the pound.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Reeves of being "missing in action" and said she should have stayed in the UK.

But Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones, standing in for Reeves in the Commons on Thursday, said the trip was "important" for UK trade and there was "no need for an emergency intervention".

Former chancellor Philip Hammond also told the World at One programme on Thursday that he "wouldn't personally recommend the chancellor cancels her trip to China. This can wait until she gets back next week".

Line chart showing 10-year UK government bond yields, from 2004 to January 2025. The yield was 4.9% on 2 January 2004, and rose to a peak of 5.5% in July 2007. It then gradually fell to a low of 0.1% in August 2020, before starting to climb again. On 9 January 2025, it hit 4.9%, the highest since 2008.

Governments generally spend more than they raise in tax so they borrow money to fill the gap, usually by selling bonds to investors.

Interest rates - known as the yield - on government bonds have been going up since around August, a rise that has also affected government bonds in the US and other countries.

The yield on a 10-year bond has surged to its highest level since 2008, while the yield on a 30-year bond is at its highest since 1998, meaning it costs the government more to borrow over the long term.

Reeves has previously committed only to make significant tax and spend announcements once a year at the autumn Budget.

But if higher borrowing costs persist, there is the possibility of cuts to spending before that or at least lower spending increases than would otherwise happen.

Any further spending cuts could be announced in the chancellor's planned fiscal statement on 26 March , ahead of a spending review that has already asked government departments to find efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

Israeli settlers in West Bank see Trump win as chance to go further

10 January 2025 at 14:05
EPA A picture taken with a drone shows a construction site of a new neighborhood in the Neve Daniel settlement, in the Gush Etzion settlement block at the West Bank, 15 February 2023.EPA
Israel continues to build settlements in the occupied West Bank

On a clear day, the skyscrapers of Tel Aviv are visible from the hill above Karnei Shomron, an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank.

"I do feel different from Tel Aviv," said Sondra Baras, who has lived in Karnei Shomron for almost 40 years. "I'm living in a place where my ancestors lived thousands of years ago. I do not live in occupied territory; I live in Biblical Judea and Samaria."

For many settlers here, the line between the State of Israel, and the territory it captured from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East war, has been erased from their narrative.

The visitors' audio-guide at the hill-top viewpoint describes the West Bank as "a region of Israel" and the Palestinian city of Nablus as the place where God promised the land to the Jews.

But formal annexation of this territory has so far remained a dream for settlers like Sondra, even while settlements - viewed as illegal by the UN's top court and most other countries - have mushroomed year after year.

Now many see an opportunity to go further, with the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.

"I was thrilled that Trump won," Sondra told me. "I very much want to extend sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. And I feel that's something Trump could support."

Standing outside, Sondra stares into the camera, wearing red rimmed glasses, a yellow scarf and yellow cardigan. In the background is out of focus greenery
Settler leader Sondra Baras has lived in the West Bank for nearly four decades

There are signs that some in his incoming administration might agree with her.

Mike Huckabee, nominated as Trump's new ambassador to Israel, signalled his support for Israeli claims on the West Bank in an interview last year.

"When people use the term 'occupied', I say: 'Yes, Israel is occupying the land, but it's the occupation of a land that God gave them 3,500 years ago. It is their land,'" he said.

Reuters Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump are seen at a campaign event in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 29, 2024Reuters
Mike Huckabee, seen with Donald Trump on the campaign trail last year, is the president-elect's nominee for US Ambassador to Israel

Yisrael Gantz, head of the regional settlement council that oversees Karnei Shomron, says he has already noticed a change in tone from the incoming Trump administration as a result of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, which triggered the war on Gaza.

"Both here in Israel and in the US, they understand that we must apply sovereignty here," he told me. "It's a process. I can't tell you it will be tomorrow. But in my eyes, the dream of a two-state solution is dead."

US President Joe Biden has always maintained the US position in support of a future Palestinian state alongside Israel. Asked whether he was hearing something different from the incoming Trump administration, Mr Gantz replied, "Of course, yes."

But there are also signs that Israelis lobbying for annexation of the West Bank - some of them in cabinet positions - might be disappointed in Trump's decisions.

Their hopes have been fuelled by memories of his first term as president, during which he broke with decades of US policy - and international consensus - by recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which were captured from Syria in 1967.

EPA A man walks past a large billboard congratulating US President-elect Donald Trump, on the facade of Friends of Zion Museum in Jerusalem, 07 November 2024.EPA
Many Israelis welcomed Donald Trump's election win in November

But supporting annexation of the West Bank would be a much bigger and thornier issue for Trump.

It would likely alienate Washington's other key ally, Saudi Arabia, complicating Trump's chances for a wider regional deal.

It could also alienate some moderate Republicans in the US Congress, concerned about the impact on West Bank Palestinians, and their future status under Israeli rule.

Settler leader Sondra Baras told me that West Bank Palestinians who did not want to live in Israel could "go wherever they want".

Challenged on why they should leave their homeland, she said: "I'm not kicking them out, but things change. How many wars did they start? And they lost."

"If sovereignty were to go forward, there would be a lot of yelling and screaming, absolutely," she continued. "But at some point, you create a fact that's irreversible."

Shortly after Trump's election victory last November, Israel's far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, publicly called for annexing the Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

"2025 must be the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria," he said.

View through the empty window frame of a large pile of rubble in Nablus, with some buildings still standing in the distance
Mohaib Salameh's home on the outskirts of Nablus has been demolished

Whether or not the new US president agrees, many Palestinians say discussion of formal annexation misses the point - that Israel is, in practice, already annexing territory here.

One of them is Mohaib Salameh. He leads me across the rubble of his family home, built on private Palestinian land, on the outskirts of Nablus. The building was ruled illegal by an Israeli court last year and demolished.

Israel has full control over security and planning in 60% of the West Bank on an interim basis, as outlined in the Oslo peace accords three decades ago.

While settlements are expanding, permits for Palestinian homes are almost never granted. And lawyers say demolitions like this are increasing.

Close up shot of Mohaib in focus, with the rubble and destruction in the background out of focus
Mohaib Salameh says his now-demolished home posed no threat to the Israelis

"This is all part of policies to force us to leave," Mohaib said. "It's a policy of forced migration. What difference does it make to them [Israelis] if I build here or not? We pose no threat to them."

Palestinians are also increasingly being forced off their land by violent Israeli settlers - who have been sanctioned by the US and UK, but largely left unchallenged by Israeli courts at home.

B’Tselem About a dozen people dressed in black with faces covered by hoods and scarves run in the same direction across dry ground, with a small stone building in the background, Khirbet Susiya in the South Hebron Hills, 21 December 2024B’Tselem
This image, provided by an Israeli human rights organisation, shows what they describe as teenage settlers attacking Palestinian homes in the southern West Bank

Activists say more than 20 Palestinian communities in the West Bank have been expelled over the past few years by increasingly violent attacks, and that settlers are now encroaching into new areas outside Israel's interim civil control.

Mohaib told me that no US president had ever protected Palestinians, and that he doesn't believe Donald Trump will either.

America's next president is widely seen as a friend of Israel.

But he's also a man who also likes closing deals - and avoiding conflicts.

Trump says meeting with Putin being arranged

10 January 2025 at 13:44
EPA Vladimir PutinEPA

Donald Trump has said that a meeting is being arranged between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US president-elect gave no timeline for when the meeting might take place.

"He wants to meet and we are setting it up," he said in remarks at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Trump has promised to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine soon after he takes office on 20 January and has expressed scepticism about US military and financial support for Kyiv.

Libya expels 600 Nigeriens in ‘dangerous and traumatising’ desert journey

10 January 2025 at 14:00
A long line of people sitting on the sand in the desert beside a border wallguardian.org

More than 600 people have been forcibly deported from Libya on a “dangerous and traumatising” journey across the Sahara, in what is thought to be one of the largest expulsions from the north African country to date.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) confirmed 613 people, all Nigerien nationals, arrived in the desert town of Dirkou in Niger last weekend in a convoy of trucks. They were among a large number of migrant workers rounded up by the authorities in Libya over the past month.

“This is something new. There was one expulsion of 400 people last July, but this convoy is the largest number to date,” said Azizou Chehou, of the migrant distress response charity Alarm Phone Sahara.

The expulsions come as EU countries have been accused of ignoring the widespread and systematic human rights violations and abuses against migrants in Libya as they seek to reduce the number of people arriving in Europe, with Italy signing deals with Tunisia and Libya to reduce Mediterranean crossings. According to the Italian interior ministry, 66,317 people reached Italy in 2024, less than half the number in 2023.

David Yambio, spokesperson for the nonprofit organisation Refugees in Libya, said: “This is Europe’s border policy laid bare, outsourcing mass expulsion and death to Libya, where the desert becomes a graveyard.

“Leaders like [Viktor] Orbán, [Giorgia] Meloni, or Trump applaud such efficient cruelty. It’s no accident; it’s the design. The EU pays to erase migrants, to make suffering invisible, and to wash its hands while others do its dirty work.”

Chehou said the journey across the Sahara region between Libya and Niger was “dangerous and traumatising”. “Winter in the desert is very cold and with migrants packed like sardines, fights to find the most comfortable spots can break out and people can fall out of the truck breaking limbs. People will arrive [in Agadez] in a very sorry state.”

Jalel Harchaoui, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and a specialist on Libya, said the periodic roundup and expulsion of foreign workers was, “something of a tradition in southern Libya since even during the time of Gadafi”, but that this incident was notable and different because of the large number of people expelled in one go.

“There has been no official announcement nor clear policy – this is simply local authorities rounding people up. However, in the rhetoric of the Haftar coalition [the Libyan National Army led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar], which largely controls Sabha [a city in southern Libya where they were deported from], there is often a tendency to demonise foreigners, particularly those from sub-Saharan Africa.”

Libya has long been a destination for those seeking work, with people from Niger, Mali and Chad migrating into southern Libya to work in sectors such as agriculture, construction and retail. Others migrate to the country to earn money to travel to the coast and join a smuggler’s boat to Europe.

A spokesperson for the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said it believed more groups of migrants were coming from Libya and that it was “ready to support IOM, particularly in identifying and supporting individuals who may be in need of international protection”.

A group of black people sit on the ground in the desert

事实快查|好莱坞地标烧毁了?房屋保险被取消?加州山火肆虐,假消息四起

By: 郑崇生
10 January 2025 at 14:37

作者:郑崇生

美国加州洛杉矶近日爆发山火,伴随强烈季风,火势迅速蔓延,包括众多好莱坞明星聚集的居住地帕利塞兹区(Palisades)也有多间房屋身陷火海。根据洛杉矶消防局9日的最新消息,帕利塞兹遭受火灾蔓延的面积已达1万7200英亩。

洛杉矶也是北美主要的华人居住地之一,不少华人转述当地灾情。但亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab, AFCL)也发现,许多疑似电脑动画(CG)或人工智能(AI)生成的图片与影像,或是断章取义的资讯,也形同野火燎原。AFCL整理、核查了一些广泛传播的不实信息:

大火燃烧好莱坞山标志性招牌?

这是错误资讯。

微博上有视频与照片,都显示好莱坞山的标志性招牌深陷火海。然而,這座招牌有时实转播的影像,根据官网查询,至截稿也没有任何“身陷火海”的情形。此外,包括事实查核组织Snopes在内都已经发表报告澄清,这些最早出现在美国社交媒体平台X上的图片以及TikTok上的视频,都不是目前好莱坞招牌所在地的实际情况。

至于这些图象是哪里来的?细看X平台上流传到微博的这张图片,美东时间1月9日可发现,除了原本右上角已标注上XI,图片右下角也有”GROK XI”的浮水印(如下方截图两个红圈处),AFCL可以确认,这是一张由AI软件Grok生成的图像,但相关发文搬运到了微博上,这一浮水印消失不见。

原本标注为人工生成的”XI”浮水印
原本标注为人工生成的”XI”浮水印
(图取自X平台)

Grok是社交媒体平台X执行长马斯克(Elon Musk)成立的AI公司,AFCL在Grok实测发现,输入“create +image+hollywood+sign+on+fire”,约10秒钟就可得到与上方相似的AI生成图。值得注意的是,若以文字询问Grok好莱坞山标志是否起火,却又得到否定的答案。

洛杉矶知名盖蒂庄园博物馆陷入火海?

这是误导信息。

X上有中英语发文流传着洛杉矶当地著名的盖蒂庄园博物馆(Getty Villa Museum)也遭受这次的野火波及,然而,AFCL将发文中的影像与谷歌地图街景相对照发现,影像中的盖蒂庄园招牌是真实存在,但对照当地地形位置,发文中位于高处的建筑物,并不是盖蒂庄园内的建物,而是位于山脚下、邻近盖蒂庄园的莱昂别墅(Villa de Leon)与周边太平洋海岸公路(太平洋海岸公路)接壤坡地上的树木起火。

左为网传图片,宣称盖蒂庄园博物馆遭到野火波及。但比对谷歌地图街景(右),可见该建筑物,并不是盖蒂庄园内的建物。
左为网传图片,宣称盖蒂庄园博物馆遭到野火波及。但比对谷歌地图街景(右),可见该建筑物,并不是盖蒂庄园内的建物。
(图取自X平台及谷歌街景)

另外,盖蒂庄园官网也公布新闻稿指出,截至8日上午,博物馆建筑仍安全无恙,但因应当地的严重灾情,至少关闭至1月12日。盖蒂庄园位于这次灾情惨重的帕利塞兹,当地邻近太平洋岸,马里布海滩(Malibu beach)风景优美,也是洛杉矶的知名观光地点。

加州大火肆虐之际,保险公司“第一时间”取消上千名屋主的保单?

这也是断章取义。微博上名为“波士顿圆脸”的大V录制视频声称,“灾害要来临之际,资本家早就知道了,所以说,保险公司在第一时间就取消了当地很多的保险”。

有微博博主称保险公司在山火爆发的第一时间,大量取消房屋保险合约。
有微博博主称保险公司在山火爆发的第一时间,大量取消房屋保险合约。
(图取自微博)

根据视频中引用的英文报道截图,AFCL发现,这是美国新闻周刊(Newsweek)8日刊发这次火灾情况的相关报道,讲述美国去(2024)年有保险公司在评估加州近年来因气候变化野火频传后,取消一些加州当地的房屋火险保单,而其中有上百户居民就是处在这次山火发生所在地的“宝马山花园”社区(Pacific Palisades)。然而,在他的视频中其实可以清楚看到英文报道第一段写着取消保单是发生在“去年夏”天”,报道标题也明确指出这是在灾害发生的“数个月前”(下方截图右处红圈处)。

有微博博主称保险公司在山火爆发的第一时间,大量取消房屋保险合约。但在他自己视频引用的媒体报道(右图)中,就提及取消合约是去(2024)年的事情。
有微博博主称保险公司在山火爆发的第一时间,大量取消房屋保险合约。但在他自己视频引用的媒体报道(右图)中,就提及取消合约是去(2024)年的事情。
(图取自微博视频)

根据这篇报道介绍,多家私人保险公司在过去3年间取消了加州一些高风险地区的房屋保险,许多民众因此得透过州政府的“公平取得保险方案”(Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan,FAIR Plan )购买。加州“公平取得保险方案”投保案件在2020年至2024年间成长逾一倍,总额达到45万2000件。


亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab)针对当今复杂媒体环境以及新兴传播生态而成立。我们本于新闻专业主义,提供专业查核报告及与信息环境相关的传播观察、深度报道,帮助读者对公共议题获得多元而全面的认识。读者若对任何媒体及社交软件传播的信息有疑问,欢迎以电邮afcl@rfa.org寄给亚洲事实查核实验室,由我们为您查证核实。

亚洲事实查核实验室更详细的介绍请参考本文。我们另有在X、脸书、IG频道,欢迎读者追踪、分享、转发。X这边请进:中文@asiafactcheckcn;英文:@AFCL_engFB在这里IG也别忘了

© AFCL

亚洲事实查核实验室制图

《无限暖暖》游戏评测

2024年12月,IGN官网公布了2024年IGN年度游戏提名名单,其中有一款国产游戏引起了我的兴趣,也就是IGN给出了9分的高分的游戏《无限暖暖》,由于从未接触过类似的游戏,因此我也将这款游戏下载试玩了一下,颇有一些感慨。

玩法体验

无限暖暖是一个女性向的游戏,对于时尚和服装关注度极高,几乎没有暴力元素,其战斗部分非常简易。建议使用PS5和PC来玩这个游戏,使用手机玩的话体验不好。

游戏具有多种元素融合在一起,有类似塞尔达传说那样高自由度的开放世界的钓鱼、采集植物、捕捉昆虫、清理动物等等,还有超级马里奥那样的跳跃玩法,也有类似RPG里的服装升级等等。游戏中的服装不仅具有时尚功能,还附加了各种实用的技能,如跳跃、滑翔、捕鱼、捕虫等技能。

游戏的主要玩法,一个是通过主线任务和支线任务来获得新服装,或者提升服装能力,另一个是在游戏世界里探索和收集各种各样的物品。

由于是女性向的游戏,男玩家初玩起来会有一些不适,其实,无限暖暖和古墓丽影没啥太大区别,都是不停跳跳跳的游戏,游戏里也有很多服饰,默认的裙子服装太女性化,可以把暖暖的服装换成上衣+短裤(长裤)这种形式,男性玩家玩起来就舒服多了。

画面表现

从画面表现来看,电脑端和PS5端画面优化的很好,虚幻5引擎带来相当惊艳的美术效果,人物和场景质感出色,细节丰富,服装的建模也非常华丽和精致,视觉效果非常迷人。不过,游戏的手机端画面表现不怎么样,可能是因为UE5引擎对手机支持不好,不好进行优化,其实,可能UE4比UE5更适合手机开发。

手柄操作非常顺畅,用鼠键操作可能会晕3D,不过手柄菜单非常复杂繁琐,不如鼠标操作简单,如果能把手柄和鼠标结合在一起,菜单用鼠标操作,游戏用手柄操作,那样体验就好了。

音乐表现

游戏的音乐也是一大亮点,音乐风格与游戏场景和剧情紧密结合,为玩家营造了一个沉浸式的游戏体验,愿望梦境仓库副本里乘坐千纸鹤的那段背景音乐令人印象深刻,好听的不得了。游戏的片头曲《Together Till Infinity》也很好听,由Jessie J演唱。游戏副本里的音乐旋律也很不错,都恰到好处地烘托了游戏的氛围。

游戏剧情

在剧情方面,《无限暖暖》目前算是单机游戏,没有其他玩家互动,游戏主线任务较为单调,游戏剧情和任务比较平淡和沉闷,游戏台词也相对平庸,缺乏深度和吸引力,地图容量比较少。

游戏的副本非常出色,副本数量虽然不多,但副本设计得相当出色,质量上乘。每一个副本都充满了挑战,不仅考验操作,还考验策略,让玩家可以在游戏中不断挑战自我。

游戏一开始内容比较丰富,有大量的任务可做,主线任务和支线任务完成了以后,就会遇到一个比较尴尬的情况:每天上线无事可做。制作和升级服装需要大量资源,核心的资源只能通过每天恢复的体力来交换,需要交换多日才能制作或升级一套服装,这导致每天换完资源,完成日常任务后,就没什么事情可做了,导致游戏的粘性不太高。

总结

总的来说,《无限暖暖》是一款集换装、探索、冒险于一体的开放世界游戏,具有不错的画面表现和丰富的游戏内容。然而,游戏在移动端存在优化不足的问题,且剧情和台词相对平庸,这在一定程度上影响了玩家的游戏体验。

游戏有氪金系统,但我自己零氪也能玩,其中蓝龙提供的三套服装以及游戏主线提供的服装,可以完成大部分任务,不用氪金玩起来也没问题。

看游戏的内容量,内容非常休闲,以收集和探索为主要玩法,应该属于3A单机游戏,但这种单机游戏免费给用户玩,不知道能不能收回成本。

“又来了”:世界如何应对更肆无忌惮的特朗普2.0

10 January 2025 at 02:26

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“又来了”:世界如何应对更肆无忌惮的特朗普2.0

DAMIEN CAVE
周二,候任总统唐纳德·特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉歌庄园举行新闻发布会。
周二,候任总统唐纳德·特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉歌庄园举行新闻发布会。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
当唐纳德·特朗普赢得重返白宫的机会时,许多国家都以为自己知道会发生什么,以及如何为即将发生的事情做好准备。
世界各国首都的外交官们都表示,他们将关注特朗普政府的所作所为,而不是特朗普的言论。那些大国制定了计划来缓和或反击特朗普惩罚性关税的威胁。较小的国家则希望自己能躲过又一场四年的“美国优先”飓风。
但是,让世界保持冷静并继续前进越来越难。
在周二的马阿拉歌庄园新闻发布会上,特朗普拒绝排除使用武力夺取格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河的可能性。他发誓要将墨西哥湾重新命名为“美利坚湾”。他还表示,出于美国国家安全的考虑,他可以使用“经济力量”将加拿大变成美国的第51州。
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对于那些急于从虚张声势中辨别实质的人来说,这似乎又是一场散漫的夸夸其谈,一部更加肆无忌惮的续集——《特朗普2》。甚至在就职之前,特朗普就以其令人目瞪口呆的愿望清单在全球引发人们评价道:“又来了”。
然而,除了闲聊之外,还有严重的利害关系。当全世界都在为特朗普的回归做准备时,他的关注点与19世纪末遥远的美帝国主义时代之间的相似之处正变得越来越重要。
特朗普已经对那个时代的保护主义大加赞赏,声称19世纪90年代的美国“可能是它在历史上最富裕的时候,因为那是一个关税体系”。现在,他似乎又在将19世纪和20世纪初对领土控制的关注加入进去。
这两个时代的共同之处在于对地缘政治动荡的恐惧,以及被排除在具有重要经济和军事意义的区域之外的威胁。正如美国西北大学历史学家丹尼尔·伊默瓦尔所说:“我们看到的是一个回归到更多强取豪夺的世界。”
特朗普曾多次表示希望接管格陵兰。
特朗普曾多次表示希望接管格陵兰。 Carsten Snejbjerg for The New York Times
对特朗普来说,中国的威胁正在逼近——在他看来,中国随时准备夺取远离其边界的领土。他诬蔑中国控制了美国建造的巴拿马运河。此外还有一个(相对更贴近现实的)说法——中国及其盟友俄罗斯有可能控制北冰洋航道和珍贵矿产。
与此同时,随着一些国家(印度、沙特阿拉伯)的崛起和另一些国家(委内瑞拉、叙利亚)的恶化和挣扎,四面八方的竞争在加剧,这为外部影响渗入创造了机会。
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在19世纪80、90年代也出现了争夺控制权的局面,没有一个国家能够独占鳌头。人们认为国家强大了,版图也应该扩大,相互敌对的各方势力开始重绘地图,引发了从亚洲到加勒比海的诸多冲突。
1898年,美国吞并关岛和波多黎各,这与欧洲的殖民规划如出一辙。但在菲律宾等较大的国家,美国选择了间接控制,通过谈判达成交易,为美国企业和军事利益提供优惠待遇。
一些人认为,特朗普对格陵兰岛、巴拿马运河甚至加拿大的执迷是一种他个人的诉求,试图引发对领土扩张追求的重新关注。
“这符合美国对它认为是其利益所在的地区施加控制或试图施加控制的模式,在不使用‘帝国’、‘殖民地’或‘帝国主义’这些可怕的字眼的同时,仍能获取物质利益,”澳大利亚悉尼新南威尔士大学的美利坚帝国历史学家伊恩·泰瑞尔说。
特朗普威胁要接管领土,这可能只是一个交易起点或某种个人愿望。美国过去已经与丹麦达成协议,以便在格陵兰岛建立基地。
在许多外国外交官和学者看来,他提出的将那里和其他地方“美国化”的建议,与其说是一反常态,不如说是对常态的升级。多年来,美国一直试图用一种熟悉的方式来遏制中国的野心。
特朗普错误地指称中国控制了巴拿马运河。
特朗普错误地指称中国控制了巴拿马运河。 Federico Rios for The New York Times
菲律宾再次成为焦点,美军与菲律宾达成了新的基地协议,以便在与中国的潜在战争中使用。对亚洲和北极地区贸易来说最重要的海上航线也是如此,随着气候变化融化冰层,航行变得更加容易。
泰瑞尔说:“美国一直想要的是市场准入、通信线路,以及物质力量的前置部署能力。”
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但对于某些地区来说,历史的前车之鉴尤其唤起恐惧。
巴拿马及其邻国倾向于将特朗普的言论视为19世纪90年代和20世纪80年代的混合体,当时冷战导致华盛顿打着打击共产主义的幌子插手许多拉美国家的事务。门罗主义是另一个19世纪产物,当时美国将西半球视为其专属势力范围,如今门罗主义与关税和领土交易一起重新变得重要起来。
墨西哥城著名专栏作家卡洛斯·普伊格称,拉丁美洲比世界上任何其他地区都更担心特朗普的回归。
“这就是特朗普,手握两院多数优势,抱怨了整整四年,一个只关心自己和不惜一切代价要赢的人,”普伊格说。“对于这样一个人来说,无论他的承诺有多么疯狂,他都想表明他正在努力实现这些承诺。我不确定一切都只是恃强凌弱和近乎滑稽的挑衅。”
但特朗普究竟能取得多少成果或造成多少破坏呢?
他在佛罗里达州举行的新闻发布会上既有含糊其辞的威胁(“可能是因为你不得不做些什么”),又有救世主般的承诺(“我说的可是保护自由世界啊”)。
这足以唤醒其他国家,甚至在他上任之前就已经吸引了强烈的关注和反击。
作为对特朗普想将墨西哥湾更名为“美利坚湾 ”的提议的回应,墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆周三表示,美国应被称为“墨西哥美洲”。
作为对特朗普想将墨西哥湾更名为“美利坚湾 ”的提议的回应,墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆周三表示,美国应被称为“墨西哥美洲”。 Alfredo Estrella/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
法国外交部长让·诺埃尔·巴罗周三警告不要威胁欧盟的“主权边界”——他指的是丹麦的格陵兰岛。他还说:“我们已经进入了一个要回归到弱肉强食的时代。”
在马阿拉歌可能看不出来,但在外国首都却讨论得沸沸扬扬:许多国家已经厌倦了特朗普想要恢复其荣光的那个美国。
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虽然美国仍然是一股主导力量,但其影响力已不如20世纪80年代或19世纪90年代,这不仅是因为中国的崛起,还因为在许多国家看来,美国自身正陷入功能失调和债务危机,而其他国家却在大发展。
美国在“二战”后帮助建立的国际体系将贸易放在首位,希望以此阻止国家对外征服——这一体系运作良好,铺设了通往繁荣的道路,从而使美国单边主义的威力减弱。
正如华盛顿昆西治国方略研究所全球南方项目主任萨朗·希多尔所解释的那样,许多发展中国家“更老道、自信和精干了,而美国变得不再那么可预测和稳定”。
换言之,当今世界动荡不安。欧洲和中东的战争,中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜的专制伙伴关系,被削弱但正在寻求核武器的伊朗,以及气候变化和人工智能,都在动摇战后的平衡。
19世纪末也曾动荡不安。历史学家认为,特朗普现在可能犯的错误是,他认为只要增加美国的疆域和资产,世界就能变得更平静、简单。
特朗普将保护主义、帝国主义时代浪漫化,而那个时代在德国和意大利试图强取豪夺时崩塌了。结果就是两次世界大战。
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“使用20世纪武器是什么下场,我们已经见识过了,”著有《如何隐藏一个帝国:大美国简史》一书的伊默瓦尔说。“21世纪可能要危险得多。”

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“爱家月子中心”数十店停业 产妇付款“打水漂”

10 January 2025 at 14:09

近日,中国知名母婴连锁品牌“爱家月子中心”在多个省市的数十间门店接连倒闭,负责人疑似卷款潜逃,留下大批产妇和婴儿无人照料,费用退还无门,引发社会关注。据初步统计,涉案金额或达数亿元,受害人数增至六百人以上。

2025年1月7日起,中国多地网民在社交媒体爆料称,“爱家月子中心”突然关闭旗下门店,上海、江苏、广东等省市的多家分店相继停业,甚至有产妇在入住期间面临停水停电的窘境。据悉,“爱家月子中心”隶属于江苏爱之家母婴服务集团有限公司,覆盖全国80余家分店。

江苏网民王先生本周五(10日)接受自由亚洲电台采访时表示,经济环境持续恶化,当地许多企业难以为继,近期,不仅仅是月子中心,就连供货商追款维权事件也层出不穷。他说:“昨天,他们有人在公安局报案,他们供货商跟装修公司签了合同,现在装修公司老板跑路了,有的经营不下去,有的是资金链断裂,就想把钱卷走,矛盾愈来愈多。”

月子中心停业突如其来

极目新闻报道,上海嘉定区一位孕妇在2024年11月与安亭镇一家门市签订服务合约,42天服务期的全额费用是两万九千五百元,她在社群媒体上看到爱家月子中心关门的消息后赶到门市,发现门店的招牌已经拆除,大量消费者在店外向民警登记消费资讯。消费者褚女士说,自己已经结束服务期离店了,但门市还有没退还的押金及杂费三千多元。

据报,安亭镇分店在关闭前几天仍正常营业,甚至1月6日还在招聘新员工。苏州一产妇更是无奈表示,自己刚缴纳两万九千八百元入住两天,就遭遇月子中心关闭。她和婴儿不得不依赖外卖维持基本生活。部分未入住的消费者表示,早已预付的服务费也无法退还,负责人已“人间蒸发”。

海外社交媒体账号“李老师不是你老师”发布的视频显示,1月8日,广东佛山美玥月子中心老板连夜跑路,消费者集体维权。警察在场维持秩序。

武汉居民吴女士接受本台采访时说,她的侄女在月子中心待产,她很担心老板卷款跑路:“我侄女也在月子中心,她现在待产,收费贵啊,要五万元,但经营合不合法搞不清楚。现在只要你有门路,经营就‘合法’,你没门路就“不合法”。”

月子中心员工薪资遭拖欠

不仅消费者蒙受损失,月子中心员工也深受其害。一位产康师透露,自己已被拖欠3个月工资,得知公司倒闭后,只能通过劳动监察部门和警方报案。根据员工反馈,公司领导早已退出员工沟通群,疑似早有预谋。

天眼查数据显示,“爱家月子中心”母公司成立于2022年,注册资本1亿元人民币,其法定代表人王某某涉及关联80家企业,分布在江苏、浙江、上海、广东等地。虽然部分关联企业仍在运营,但“爱家”早已出现资金链断裂问题。

据华夏时报网站报道,截至1月8日,由消费者自发组织的维权群组已有600余人加入,涉及金额超过一千万元,受害人数仍在持续增加。一些地方政府已介入调查,例如上海嘉定区安亭派出所工作人员表示,当地消费者可登记损失情况,相关部门将予以处理。

网民高先生对本台感叹道,对中国民众而言,遇到的是生存问题:“现在不能谈经济了,谈活命了。我昨天也看到这则消息,人家孕妇提前交钱,你不应欠账啊,去月子中心都是先给钱,你收了人家的钱再提供服务。现在资金链断掉,你卷钱逃跑了,再去找其它项目投资。”

与此同时,浙江部分倒闭门店的房东出于人道考量,允许产妇暂时继续居住,但厨师和月嫂已离职,产妇们的基本生活陷入困境。有律师指出,如果经营者在明知无法履行合同的情况下继续收取消费者款项,并卷款潜逃,则涉嫌合同诈骗,将面临刑事追责。

行业乱象与经济困境

近年来,中国月子中心倒闭事件频繁发生。2020年因新冠疫情,母婴行业受到重创。2023年12月,福建泉州一家月子中心也突然倒闭,涉及金额数百万元人民币。

针对本次事件,律师建议受害者立即报案,并通过劳动监察部门和法院提起民事诉讼。同时,律师呼吁相关部门加强对母婴服务行业的监督管理,建立风险保障机制,防止类似事件重复发生。

责编:陈美华 许书婷

© AP

中国近年月子中心倒闭事件频繁发生。图为月嫂在家中照顾四周大的婴儿。

Trump says meeting with Putin being arranged

10 January 2025 at 13:44
EPA Vladimir PutinEPA

Donald Trump has said that a meeting is being arranged between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US president-elect gave no timeline for when the meeting might take place.

"He wants to meet and we are setting it up," he said in remarks at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Trump has promised to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine soon after he takes office on 20 January and has expressed scepticism about US military and financial support for Kyiv.

Musk interviews German far-right frontwoman

10 January 2025 at 11:58
Reuters Alice Weidel, co-leader of Germany’s far-right party AfD (Alternative fuer Deutschland) is pictured in her office before a virtual talk event with U.S. billionaire Elon Musk on his platform X in Berlin, Germany, January 9, 2025Reuters
Alice Weidel in her office before the interview

Elon Musk took his endorsement of Germany's far-right party to the next level on Thursday, hosting a live chat with its frontwoman, Alice Weidel.

The 74-minute conversation ranged across energy policy, German bureaucracy, Adolf Hitler, Mars and the meaning of life.

The world's richest man unequivocally urged Germans to back Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in forthcoming elections.

It's the tech billionaire's latest, controversial foray into European politics.

There'd been a considerable build-up to this discussion as Elon Musk faced accusations of meddling in Germany's snap election.

But the interview, conducted in English, was arguably as much a chance for the AfD to reach international audiences via Musk's X platform.

Knowing of his close relationship with Donald Trump, Alice Weidel made sure to express her support for the US president-elect and his team.

She insisted her party was "conservative" and "libertarian" but had been "negatively framed" by mainstream media as extremist.

Sections of the AfD have been officially classed as right-wing extremist by German authorities.

A BBC News investigation last year found connections between some party figures and far-right networks, while one leading light on the party's hard right, Björn Höcke, was fined last year for using a banned Nazi phrase – though he denied doing so knowingly.

During the conversation, Weidel declared that Hitler had in fact been a "communist", despite the notable anti-communism of the Nazi leader, who invaded the Soviet Union.

"He wasn't a conservative," she said. "He wasn't a libertarian. He was this communist, socialist guy."

She also described Hitler as an "antisemitic socialist".

On other matters, she and Musk chimed – and at times giggled - over Germany's infamous bureaucracy, its "crazy" abandonment of nuclear power, the need for tax cuts, free speech and "wokeness".

In a sometimes stilted and, at times, surprising conversation, one surreal moment came when Weidel asked Mr Musk if he believed in God.

The reply – for those who wish to know – was that he's open to the idea as he seeks to "understand the universe as much as possible".

Despite all the anticipation that exchange, surely, had not been on many people's bingo card.

Reuters Tech billionaire Elon Musk. He is wearing a blue suit and tie and looking off to the left of the image. Reuters
Elon Musk (file image)

The AfD, which also opposes Berlin's weapons aid to Ukraine, is polling second in Germany, with a snap federal election scheduled for 23 February.

However, it won't be able to take power as other parties won't work with it.

That hasn't stopped Elon Musk from hailing Weidel as the "leading candidate to run Germany".

He's justified his intervention by citing his significant investments in the country - notably a huge Tesla plant just outside Berlin.

And he's dismissed characterisation of the AfD as far-right while previously labelling the social democratic Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a "fool".

Scholz, whose chances of retaining the chancellery look remote, later insisted that he was "staying cool" about Elon Musk's attacks.

Controversial Buddhist monk jailed for insulting Islam

10 January 2025 at 12:53
Getty Images Galagodaatte Gnanasara, centre, leaves after a meeting with a Buddhist spiritual leader in 2019Getty Images
Galagodaatte Gnanasara leads a Sinhalese Buddhist nationalist group and is a close ally of outsed former president Rajapaksa

A hardline Sri Lankan monk who is a close ally of ousted former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has been sentenced to nine months in prison for insulting Islam and inciting religious hatred.

Galagodaatte Gnanasara was convicted on Thursday for the remarks, which date back to 2016.

Sri Lanka rarely convicts Buddhist monks, but this marks the second time that Gnanasara, who has repeatedly been accused of hate crimes and anti-Muslim violence, has been jailed.

The sentence, handed down by the Colombo Magistrate's Court, comes after a presidential pardon he received in 2019 for a six-year sentence related to intimidation and contempt of court.

Gnanasara was arrested in December for remarks he made during a 2016 media conference, where he made several derogatory remarks against Islam.

On Thursday, the court said that all citizens, regardless of religion, are entitled to the freedom of belief under the Constitution.

he was also given a fine of 1,500 Sri Lankan rupees ($5; £4). Failure to pay the fine would result in an additional month of imprisonment, the court's ruling added.

Gnanasara has filed an appeal against the sentence.

He was a trusted ally of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was forced to resign and flee abroad following mass protests over the island nation's economic crisis in 2022.

During Rajapaksa's presidency, Gnanasara, who also leads a Sinhalese Buddhist nationalist group, was appointed head of a presidential task force on legal reforms aimed at protecting religious harmony.

After Rajapaksa's ouster, Gnanasara was jailed last year for a similar charge related to hate speech against the country's Muslim minority but was granted bail while appealing his four-year sentence.

In 2018, he was sentenced to six years for contempt of court and intimidating the wife of a political cartoonist who is widely believed to have been disappeared. However, he only served nine months of that sentence because he received a pardon by Maithripala Sirisena who was the country's president at the time.

Booze ban for Marcos family member after plane brawl

10 January 2025 at 12:05
Getty Images Analisa Josefa Corr with her husbandGetty Images
Analisa Josefa Corr has been accused of assaulting a fellow passenger while intoxicated

The daughter of late Philippines dictator Ferdinand Marcos has been banned from drinking on planes and in airports after she and her husband got into a drunken brawl with another passenger on board a Jetstar flight.

Analisa Josefa Corr and James Alexander Corr caused a "disturbance" with their "disorderly behaviour" while intoxicated on a flight from Hobart to Sydney on 29 December, Australia police said.

Ms Corr has been accused of "grabbing and shaking another passenger while exiting the aircraft toilet", police said. The pair were escorted off the flight.

They pleaded not guilty to charges of not complying with safety instructions and consuming alcohol not provided by the crew, but on Friday agreed to a booze ban while on bail.

If found guilty, they could be fined up to A$13,750 ($8,520; £6,925) for each charge.

Ms Corr has also denied a charge of assaulting a fellow passenger on board the aircraft, which carries up to two years in prison.

They have each also been asked to offer up A$20,000, which would be forfeited they breach any bail conditions.

Ms Corr, 53, is Marcos' Australia-raised daughter with former Sydney model Evelin Hegyesi - which makes her the half-sister of the Philippines' current president Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

On Instagram Ms Corr describes herself as an interior designer.

Mr Corr, 45, is a former soldier, according to Australian media.

In its statement on the case, police urged travellers to be "mindful of their behaviour at airports".

"You don't want to start the new year with a significant fine or worse, behind bars," said Australian Federal Police Sergeant Luke Stockwell.

"The AFP is increasing patrols at all major airports during the holidays and will not tolerate dangerous, disruptive or abusive behaviour from travellers," he added.

Jetstar did not directly comment on the incident, but a spokesman said the company will "never tolerate disruptive behaviour on our aircraft".

"The safety and wellbeing of customers and crew is our number one priority," he added.

Beninese army suffers 'hard blow' in border attack

10 January 2025 at 12:55
AFP Benin's soldiers leave the Ouidah Military Camp to participate in the joint military exercise 05 December 2004 in Ouidah during a joint military exercise tagged 'RECAMP IV'. AFP
Benin has in recent years witnessed increasing jihadist attacks in the northern region

Benin forces have suffered heavy losses in an attack near the border with insurgency-hit Niger and Burkina Faso, authorities have said.

Colonel Faizou Gomina, the national guard's chief of staff, said one of Benin's most well-equipped military positions had been hit in the north on Wednesday evening.

"We've been dealt a very hard blow," Col Gomina added.

The country has in recent years witnessed increasing attacks in the northern region blamed on jihadist groups based in neighbouring countries.

More than 120 Beninese military officers were killed between 2021 and December 2024, a diplomatic source told AFP news agency.

Last month, gunmen killed three soldiers and wounded four others who were guarding an oil pipeline in the north-east.

Col Gomina did not provide a death toll for Wednesday's attack, but the main opposition party, The Democrats, said about 30 soldiers had been killed in the Alibori region, Reuters news agency reports.

A security source put the death toll at 28, according to AFP.

"We are continuing cleaning-up operations. Forty assailants have been neutralised so far," the military source added.

Col Gomina said the position attacked had been "one of the strongest and most militarised" and called on military commanders to improve their operational strategies in order to counter security threats.

"Wake up, officers and section chiefs, we have battles to win," he said.

In 2022, Benin deployed nearly 3,000 troops to curb cross-border incursions and reinforce security in the north.

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2024 first year to pass 1.5C global warming limit

10 January 2025 at 12:13
BBC Creative image showing wavy white lines on a red background on the left, symbolising the warming world, and a quarter of the globe on the rightBBC

The planet has moved a major step closer to warming more than 1.5C, new data shows, despite world leaders vowing a decade ago they would try to avoid this.

The European Copernicus climate service, one of the main global data providers, said on Friday that 2024 was the first calendar year to pass the symbolic threshold, as well as the world's hottest on record.

This does not mean the international 1.5C target has been broken, because that refers to a long-term average over decades, but does bring us nearer to doing so as fossil fuel emissions continue to heat the atmosphere.

Last week UN chief António Guterres described the recent run of temperature records as "climate breakdown".

"We must exit this road to ruin - and we have no time to lose," he said in his New Year message, calling for countries to slash emissions of planet-warming gases in 2025.

Bar chart of global average annual temperatures between 1940 and 2024. There is a rising trend, and 2024 shows the highest global average temperature of 1.6C, according to the European climate service. The hotter the year, the darker shade of red for the bars.

Global average temperatures for 2024 were around 1.6C above those of the pre-industrial period - the time before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels - according to Copernicus data.

This breaks the record set in 2023 by just over 0.1C, and means the last 10 years are now the 10 warmest years on record.

The Met Office, Nasa and other climate groups are due to release their own data later on Friday. All are expected to agree that 2024 was the warmest on record, although precise figures vary slightly.

Last year's heat is predominantly due to humanity's emissions of planet-warming gases, such as carbon dioxide, which are still at record highs.

Natural weather patterns such as El Niño - where surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm - played a smaller role.

"By far and away the largest contribution impacting our climate is greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere," Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, tells the BBC.

The 1.5C figure has become a powerful symbol in international climate negotiations ever since it was agreed in Paris in 2015, with many of the most vulnerable countries considering it a matter of survival.

The risks from climate change, such as intense heatwaves, rising sea-levels and loss of wildlife, would be much higher at 2C of warming than at 1.5C, according to a landmark UN report from 2018.

Yet the world has been moving closer and closer to breaching the 1.5C barrier.

"When exactly we will cross the long-term 1.5C threshold is hard to predict, but we're obviously very close now," says Myles Allen of the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford, and an author of the UN report.

Maps for each year since 1970, showing average air temperatures around the world compared with the 1991-2020 reference period. Further down the chart, the maps are covered by increasingly dark shades of red, denoting warmer temperatures.

The current trajectory would likely see the world pass 1.5C of long-term warming by the early 2030s. This would be politically significant, but it wouldn't mean game over for climate action.

"It's not like 1.49C is fine, and 1.51C is the apocalypse - every tenth of a degree matters and climate impacts get progressively worse the more warming we have," explains Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a research group in the US.

Even fractions of a degree of global warming can bring more frequent and intense extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

In 2024, the world saw blistering temperatures in west Africa, prolonged drought in parts of South America, intense rainfall in central Europe and some particularly strong tropical storms hitting north America and south Asia.

These events were just some of those made more intense by climate change over the last year, according to the World Weather Attribution group.

Even this week, as the new figures are released, Los Angeles has been overwhelmed with destructive wildfires fuelled by high winds and a lack of rain.

While there are many contributing factors to this week's events, experts say conditions conducive to fires in California are becoming more likely in a warming world.

Graphic showing the distribution of global daily air temperature differences from the 1991-2020 average, for every year between 1940 and 2024. Each individual year resembles a hill, shaded in a darker shade of red and further to the right for warmer years. The trend is clearly towards warmer days.

It wasn't only air temperatures that set new marks in 2024. The world's sea surface also reached a new daily high, while the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere reached record levels.

That the world is breaking new records is not a surprise: 2024 was always expected to be hot, because of the effect of the El Niño weather pattern - which ended around April last year - on top of human-caused warming.

But the margin of several records in recent years has been less expected, with some scientists fearing it could represent an acceleration of warming.

"I think it's safe to say that both 2023 and 2024 temperatures surprised most climate scientists - we didn't think we'd be seeing a year above 1.5C this early," says Dr Hausfather.

"Since 2023 we've had around 0.2C of extra warming that we can't fully explain, on top of what we had expected from climate change and El Niño," agrees Helge Gößling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany

Various theories have been suggested to explain this 'extra' warmth, such as an apparent reduction in the low-level cloud cover that tends to cool the planet, and prolonged ocean heat following the end of El Niño.

"The question is whether this acceleration is something persistent linked to human activities that means we will have steeper warming in the future, or whether it is a part of natural variability," Dr Gößling adds.

"At the moment it's very hard to say."

Despite this uncertainty, scientists stress that humans still have control over the future climate, and sharp reductions in emissions can lessen the consequences of warming.

"Even if 1.5 degrees is out the window, we still can probably limit warming to 1.6C, 1.7C or 1.8C this century," says Dr Hausfather.

"That's going to be far, far better than if we keep burning coal, oil and gas unabated and end up at 3C or 4C - it still really matters."

2024 first year to pass 1.5C global warming limit

10 January 2025 at 12:13
BBC Creative image showing wavy white lines on a red background on the left, symbolising the warming world, and a quarter of the globe on the rightBBC

The planet has moved a major step closer to warming more than 1.5C, new data shows, despite world leaders vowing a decade ago they would try to avoid this.

The European Copernicus climate service, one of the main global data providers, said on Friday that 2024 was the first calendar year to pass the symbolic threshold, as well as the world's hottest on record.

This does not mean the international 1.5C target has been broken, because that refers to a long-term average over decades, but does bring us nearer to doing so as fossil fuel emissions continue to heat the atmosphere.

Last week UN chief António Guterres described the recent run of temperature records as "climate breakdown".

"We must exit this road to ruin - and we have no time to lose," he said in his New Year message, calling for countries to slash emissions of planet-warming gases in 2025.

Bar chart of global average annual temperatures between 1940 and 2024. There is a rising trend, and 2024 shows the highest global average temperature of 1.6C, according to the European climate service. The hotter the year, the darker shade of red for the bars.

Global average temperatures for 2024 were around 1.6C above those of the pre-industrial period - the time before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels - according to Copernicus data.

This breaks the record set in 2023 by just over 0.1C, and means the last 10 years are now the 10 warmest years on record.

The Met Office, Nasa and other climate groups are due to release their own data later on Friday. All are expected to agree that 2024 was the warmest on record, although precise figures vary slightly.

Last year's heat is predominantly due to humanity's emissions of planet-warming gases, such as carbon dioxide, which are still at record highs.

Natural weather patterns such as El Niño - where surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm - played a smaller role.

"By far and away the largest contribution impacting our climate is greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere," Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, tells the BBC.

The 1.5C figure has become a powerful symbol in international climate negotiations ever since it was agreed in Paris in 2015, with many of the most vulnerable countries considering it a matter of survival.

The risks from climate change, such as intense heatwaves, rising sea-levels and loss of wildlife, would be much higher at 2C of warming than at 1.5C, according to a landmark UN report from 2018.

Yet the world has been moving closer and closer to breaching the 1.5C barrier.

"When exactly we will cross the long-term 1.5C threshold is hard to predict, but we're obviously very close now," says Myles Allen of the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford, and an author of the UN report.

Maps for each year since 1970, showing average air temperatures around the world compared with the 1991-2020 reference period. Further down the chart, the maps are covered by increasingly dark shades of red, denoting warmer temperatures.

The current trajectory would likely see the world pass 1.5C of long-term warming by the early 2030s. This would be politically significant, but it wouldn't mean game over for climate action.

"It's not like 1.49C is fine, and 1.51C is the apocalypse - every tenth of a degree matters and climate impacts get progressively worse the more warming we have," explains Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a research group in the US.

Even fractions of a degree of global warming can bring more frequent and intense extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

In 2024, the world saw blistering temperatures in west Africa, prolonged drought in parts of South America, intense rainfall in central Europe and some particularly strong tropical storms hitting north America and south Asia.

These events were just some of those made more intense by climate change over the last year, according to the World Weather Attribution group.

Even this week, as the new figures are released, Los Angeles has been overwhelmed with destructive wildfires fuelled by high winds and a lack of rain.

While there are many contributing factors to this week's events, experts say conditions conducive to fires in California are becoming more likely in a warming world.

Graphic showing the distribution of global daily air temperature differences from the 1991-2020 average, for every year between 1940 and 2024. Each individual year resembles a hill, shaded in a darker shade of red and further to the right for warmer years. The trend is clearly towards warmer days.

It wasn't only air temperatures that set new marks in 2024. The world's sea surface also reached a new daily high, while the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere reached record levels.

That the world is breaking new records is not a surprise: 2024 was always expected to be hot, because of the effect of the El Niño weather pattern - which ended around April last year - on top of human-caused warming.

But the margin of several records in recent years has been less expected, with some scientists fearing it could represent an acceleration of warming.

"I think it's safe to say that both 2023 and 2024 temperatures surprised most climate scientists - we didn't think we'd be seeing a year above 1.5C this early," says Dr Hausfather.

"Since 2023 we've had around 0.2C of extra warming that we can't fully explain, on top of what we had expected from climate change and El Niño," agrees Helge Gößling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany

Various theories have been suggested to explain this 'extra' warmth, such as an apparent reduction in the low-level cloud cover that tends to cool the planet, and prolonged ocean heat following the end of El Niño.

"The question is whether this acceleration is something persistent linked to human activities that means we will have steeper warming in the future, or whether it is a part of natural variability," Dr Gößling adds.

"At the moment it's very hard to say."

Despite this uncertainty, scientists stress that humans still have control over the future climate, and sharp reductions in emissions can lessen the consequences of warming.

"Even if 1.5 degrees is out the window, we still can probably limit warming to 1.6C, 1.7C or 1.8C this century," says Dr Hausfather.

"That's going to be far, far better than if we keep burning coal, oil and gas unabated and end up at 3C or 4C - it still really matters."

Reeves heads to China amid market trouble at home

10 January 2025 at 11:52
PA Media Rachel Reeves speaking to the media at a banking hubPA Media

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is travelling to China in a bid to boost trade and economic ties, as she faces pressure over government borrowing costs hitting their highest level in years.

The three day-visit has been criticised by some Conservatives who claim she should have cancelled the trip to prioritise dealing with economic issues at home.

Government borrowing costs have hit their highest levels for several years, meaning that uses up more tax revenue, leaving less money to spend on other things.

Economists have warned this could mean spending cuts affecting public services or tax rises that could hit people's pay or businesses' ability to grow.

On Thursday, the pound fell to its lowest level in more than a year - but the Treasury said markets continued to "function in an orderly way".

Travelling to China with the chancellor are senior financial figures, including the governor of the Bank of England and the chair of HSBC.

There she will meet China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing before flying to Shanghai for discussion with UK firms operating in China.

The government is looking to revive an annual economic dialogue with China that has not been held since the pandemic.

Ties have been strained in recent years by growing concerns about the actions of China's Communist leaders, allegations of Chinese hacking and spying and its jailing of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong.

The Conservatives have criticised the chancellor for proceeding with the planned trip rather than staying in the UK to address the cost of government borrowing and slide in the value of the pound.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Reeves of being "missing in action" and said she should have stayed in the UK.

But Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones, standing in for Reeves in the Commons on Thursday, said the trip was "important" for UK trade and there was "no need for an emergency intervention".

Former chancellor Philip Hammond also told the World at One programme on Thursday that he "wouldn't personally recommend the chancellor cancels her trip to China. This can wait until she gets back next week".

Line chart showing 10-year UK government bond yields, from 2004 to January 2025. The yield was 4.9% on 2 January 2004, and rose to a peak of 5.5% in July 2007. It then gradually fell to a low of 0.1% in August 2020, before starting to climb again. On 9 January 2025, it hit 4.9%, the highest since 2008.

Governments generally spend more than they raise in tax so they borrow money to fill the gap, usually by selling bonds to investors.

Interest rates - known as the yield - on government bonds have been going up since around August, a rise that has also affected government bonds in the US and other countries.

The yield on a 10-year bond has surged to its highest level since 2008, while the yield on a 30-year bond is at its highest since 1998, meaning it costs the government more to borrow over the long term.

Reeves has previously committed only to make significant tax and spend announcements once a year at the autumn Budget.

But if higher borrowing costs persist, there is the possibility of cuts to spending before that or at least lower spending increases than would otherwise happen.

Any further spending cuts could be announced in the chancellor's planned fiscal statement on 26 March , ahead of a spending review that has already asked government departments to find efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

Violent protests in China after student falls to his death

10 January 2025 at 06:17
BBC A policeman beats a protester with a baton in Pucheng, Shaanxi province in China during large scale demonstrations. Grab from video on XBBC
In one verified video, a policeman is seen beating a protester with a baton

The death of a teenage boy sparked violent protests in a city in north-west China, the BBC has confirmed through verified video.

In the videos shared on social media, protesters can be seen hurling objects at police and officers beating some demonstrators in Pucheng in Shaanxi province.

Authorities said the teenager fell to his death on 2 January in an accident at his school dormitory. But following his death allegations began spreading on social media that there had been a cover-up.

Protests erupted soon after and lasted several days, before they were apparently quelled earlier this week. The BBC has seen no further evidence of protest in Pucheng since then.

Public demonstrations are not uncommon in China, but authorities have been particularly sensitive about them since the 2022 White Paper protests against Covid policies, which saw rare criticism of the Chinese Communist Party and President Xi Jinping.

Protester wiping his bloodied head with tissue paper at Pucheng in China. Grab from video on X
One clip shows a protester wiping blood from his head

State media has been silent on the protests in Pucheng. Any clips or mention of the demonstrations have been largely censored from Chinese social media, as is usually the case for incidents deemed sensitive by authorities.

But several videos have been leaked out of China and posted on X.

The BBC has confirmed these videos were filmed at the Pucheng Vocational Education Centre, and found no earlier versions online prior to the reported outbreak of the protests over the past few days.

When contacted by the BBC, a representative from the publicity department of the Pucheng government denied there had been protests. There was no answer when we rang an official handling media queries.

In a statement released earlier this week, local authorities said that the teenager surnamed Dang was a third-year student at the education centre in Pucheng.

Prior to his death, Dang had been woken up in the night by other students chatting in his dormitory, their statement said. He got into an argument and altercation with a boy, which was resolved by a school official.

Later that night, his body was found by another student at the foot of the dormitory block.

The statement described it as "an accident where a student fell from a height at school". It added that the police had conducted investigations and an autopsy, and "at present exclude it as a criminal case".

But allegations have swirled online for days that there was more to the story and that the school and authorities were hiding the truth. One account claimed, without proof, that Dang killed himself after he was bullied by the boy he'd fought with earlier.

Unverified remarks from his family have been circulating, alleging that the injuries on Dang's body were inconsistent with the authorities' version of events and that they were not allowed to examine his body for long.

The allegations appeared to have incensed many in Pucheng, sparking protests that drew at least hundreds of people.

Bullying has become a highly sensitive topic in China in recent years, with past cases of student deaths triggering protests. Last month, a Chinese court handed out lengthy jail sentences to two teenagers who murdered a classmate.

A protester hurling an object at a police officer in a Pucheng demonstration. Grab from video on X
Protesters were also seen hurling objects at police officers holding shields

There are also videos posted on X on Monday, which the BBC has confirmed were filmed at the Pucheng Vocational Education Centre, showing people mourning the teenager's death. They placed flowers and offerings at the entrance of the school, and conducted a traditional mourning ritual by throwing pieces of paper from the rooftop of a school building.

Other videos circulating online appear to show demonstrators, many of them young, storming a building and clashing with police while shouting "give us the truth".

One verified clip shows a school official confronted by shouting protesters who shove him around. Others show destroyed offices in the compound, and protesters pushing down a barricade at the school entrance.

Another show protesters hurling objects such as traffic cones at groups of retreating police; and officers tackling and detaining people while beating them with batons. Some protesters are seen with blood on their heads and faces.

There is little information on what happened next, but reports on social media suggest a much larger police presence in Pucheng in recent days with no more reports of demonstrations.

Authorities have also urged the public not to "create rumours, believe in rumours, or spread rumours".

Freezing cold snap to last into weekend as UK wakes to more ice

10 January 2025 at 12:11
PA Media A 4x4 makes its way through a snow-covered road in Scotton, Harrogate, North YorkshirePA Media
A 4x4 makes its way through a snow covered road in Harrogate, North Yorkshire

Commuters are being warned of icy roads and travel disruption, as temperatures plummeted again overnight across the UK.

Fresh weather warnings have been issued, with snow, ice and fog forecast across southern England, Wales, Northern Ireland and northern Scotland on Thursday.

It will be mainly dry elsewhere with winter sunshine, but temperatures could fall again to as low as -16C on Thursday night.

The cold snap has already brought heavy snowfall to some areas, and dozens of flood alerts and warnings are in place due to either heavy rain or melting snow.

On Wednesday the lowest temperature recorded was -8.4C (16F) in Shap, Cumbria, according to the Met Office.

It comes as an amber cold health alert remains in place for all of England until Sunday, meaning the forecast weather is expected to have significant impacts across health - including a rise in deaths.

The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher A sheep in Huddersfield in snow The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher
A sheep walks in snow in Huddersfield

The Met Office says travel disruption to road and rail services is likely on Thursday in areas covered by warnings, as well potential for accidents in icy places.

There are five warnings in place:

  • A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday
  • A yellow warning for ice has been issued until 10:30 across southern England and south-east Wales
  • Two yellow warnings for snow and ice are in force until 11:00 GMT - one across western Wales and north-west England, and south-west England; and another for Northern Ireland
  • A yellow warning for fog until 09:00 in Northern Ireland
Sue B/BBC Weather Watchers A snow sculpture in a garden in LeedsSue B/BBC Weather Watchers
A teenager made a snow sculpture of Venus in her garden in Leeds

On Wednesday snow caused some roads to close and motorists to be stationary for "long periods of time" in Devon and Cornwall, according to authorities there.

Gritters working into Thursday morning have been fitted with ploughs to clear routes in the area.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

"Cold conditions will last until at least the weekend, so we urge drivers to remain vigilant of the risks posed by ice and, in some locations, snow," said RAC breakdown spokeswoman Alice Simpson.

National Rail have also advised passengers to check before they travel, as ice and snow can mean speed restrictions and line closures.

On Wednesday evening, poor weather was affecting Northern and Great Western Railway.

Buses are also replacing trains between Llandudno Junction and Blaenau Ffestiniog until Monday.

Reuters An car covered in snow in Buxton Reuters
A car covered in snow on a road in Buxton, Derbyshire

The wintry conditions have caused significant disruption across the UK since snow swept many parts of the country at the weekend.

Hundreds of schools were closed in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, including schools in Yorkshire, Merseyside, the Midlands and Aberdeenshire.

The country has also been hit by widespread flooding in recent days. Currently there are 68 flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected - in England and three in Wales.

The weather is expected to be less cold over the weekend.

Boeing and Google give $1m each to Trump's inauguration

10 January 2025 at 11:18
Getty Images US President Donald Trump addresses a crowd at the debut event for the Boeing Dreamliner 787-10 on February 17, 2017.Getty Images
The plane maker has joined the growing list of firms making donations to the fund

US aviation giant Boeing has told BBC News it is donating $1m (£812,600) to an inauguration fund for President-elect Donald Trump.

Google has also confirmed that it has made a similar donation as the two firms join a growing list of major American companies contributing to the fund.

The list also includes oil producer Chevron and technology giants Meta, Amazon and Uber.

Trump's inauguration, marking the start of his second term in the White House, is set to take place on 20 January.

"We are pleased to continue Boeing's bipartisan tradition of supporting US Presidential Inaugural Committees," Boeing said.

The company added that it has made similar donations to each of the past three presidential inauguration funds.

Boeing is working to recover from a safety and quality control crisis, as well as dealing with the losses from a strike last year.

The company is also building the next presidential aircraft, known as Air Force One. The two jets are expected to come into service as early as next year.

During his first term as president, Trump forced the plane maker to renegotiate its contract, calling the initial deal too expensive.

Google became the latest big tech firm to donate to the fund, following similar announcements by Meta and Amazon. It also said it will stream the event around the world.

"Google is pleased to support the 2025 inauguration, with a livestream on YouTube and a direct link on our homepage," said Karan Bhatia, Google's global head of government affairs and public policy.

Car companies Ford, General Motors and Toyota have also donated a $1m each to the inaugural committee.

In the energy industry, Chevron confirmed that it has made a donation to the fund but declined to say how much.

"Chevron has a long tradition of celebrating democracy by supporting the inaugural committees of both parties. We are proud to be doing so again this year," said Bill Turene, Chevron's manager of global media relations.

泰国警方还原王星案始末

By: 新华社
10 January 2025 at 11:27

新华社

泰国国家警察总署督察长塔查猜9日接受新华社记者专访时说,初步调查确认,中国籍男演员王星为人口贩运受害者,预计他将于10日返回中国。

塔查猜说,根据调查结果,王星收到工作邀约来到泰国,乘坐“工作邀约方”安排的车辆从曼谷素万那普机场出发,途中拍摄了照片和地标并传给在中国的亲属。王星说,直到穿过河流进入缅甸乡村,发现环境非常简陋、没有娱乐设施,才意识到自己可能被骗了。

据泰国达府移民局1月7日公布的时间线,王星于当地时间1月3日凌晨3时16分入境泰国,3时40分乘车离开素万那普机场,7时左右到达猜纳府,9时左右经过甘烹碧府,10时左右到达达府湄索县,随后于11时左右失联。经调查,王星在湄索县经历一次换车,警方并未发现他经过位于泰缅两国边境间的泰缅一号友谊大桥。

塔查猜说,接到中方求助后,泰方动用监控录像、电话记录等技术手段,追踪王星位置。案件调查进展较快是因为王星从素万那普机场出发后,中途基本没有停留,所乘车辆非常明确地直奔边境。

“这使得我们的追踪工作可以非常迅速地展开。我们发现他越过边境的具体地点,随后找到司机,从而获得确切信息。”塔查猜说。

对于其他潜在类似案件,塔查猜说,如果有人求助,泰方会根据法律程序提供协助。“但有些案件复杂性较高,比如中途换车、换人、改变方向等情况,追踪工作会变得更困难。”

塔查猜提醒来泰的中国访客应警惕声称去邻国工作的邀约,尤其是经过泰国到邻近的第三国,以免落入诈骗集团手中。

“我们认为应加强国际合作,联合开展宣传教育,避免人们在不知情的情况下成为人口贩运受害者。下周我们会召开紧急会议,讨论如何防止类似事件发生,例如制定措施防止受骗者通过泰国前往第三国。”塔查猜说。

中国驻泰国大使馆7日表示,据泰方通报,中国公民王某已于当地时间7日下午成功获救,中国驻泰使领馆对泰国政府及其他有关各方为此所作努力和富有成效的工作表示感谢。

网络编辑:明非

预计达90亿人次,2025年春运人员流动将创历史新高

10 January 2025 at 10:56
2025年春运铁路整体客流将稳定增长,全国铁路发送旅客有望突破5.1亿人次,日均1275万人次,同比2024年春运增长5.5%。

从出行结构看,自驾出行将稳居主体地位,预计达到72亿人次,约占全社会跨区域人员流动量的八成,高速公路车流量单日峰值或创历史新高。

南方周末记者 李桂

责任编辑:钱昊平

 

2024年1月26日,旅客在石家庄站站台候车。当日,2024年春运启动。(视觉中国|供图)

2024年1月26日,旅客在石家庄站站台候车。当日,2024年春运启动。(视觉中国|供图) 

春节假期临近,2025年1月8日,国务院新闻办就2025年春运形势和工作安排举行发布会。

国家发展改革委副主任李春临介绍,2025年春运将从1月14日开始,到2月22日结束,为期40天。“从总体规模看,据交通运输等部门预计,全社会跨区域人员流动将达到90亿人次,铁路、民航客运量有望分别突破5.1亿人次和9000万人次,均创历史新高。”

今年春运有何特点?各部门又将如何有效保障春运平稳有序安全进行?发布会上,公安部、交通运输部、应急管理部、中国气象局、中国民航局、国铁集团等有关负责人介绍了相关情况。

铁路发送旅客有望突破5.1亿人次

“第一次将除夕列入法定假期,春节放8天假。春节前后客流集中度较高。”李春临表示,2025年春运群众出行规模进一步增长,国家发展改革委联合相关部门和单位及早研究谋划,综合采取多项措施,将从增加运力、引导出行、保障畅通和优化服务等四个方面尽最大努力满足群众出行需要。

其中,在增加运力方面,铁路将采取增开临客列车、夜间高铁等方式,深入挖掘增运潜力,同时保障边远地区公益性“慢火车”开行,既要保障城市点对点的旅客运输,也要保障老少边穷地区老百姓的出行。

“预计春运期间每日安排旅客列车1.4万余列,客座能力同比增长约4%。”李春临说。

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校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

中国足协主席:管办分离,中足联已经获批准成立

10 January 2025 at 10:35

央视新闻

1月9日,中国足球协会第十二届会员代表大会第二次会议在京召开。

中国足协主席宋凯作了《2024年中国足球协会工作报告》。他表示,2024年是足球工作重树信心、重回正轨、重新出发的一年。中国足协全面加强党对足球工作的领导,聚焦落实《中国足球改革发展总体方案》这一主线,牢记协会在足球改革发展中的职责使命,充分发挥举国体制优势,凝聚全国足球工作力量,扎实推动足球重点领域改革,大力扭转行业风气,夯实足球发展基础,全力推动中国足球回到正轨,重整旗鼓开启中国足球新的长征。

宋凯说,过去一年来,足球政治生态实现根本好转,全国一盘棋的工作格局初步建立,各项工作呈现新面貌、迈出新步伐。

总结2024年工作具体亮点时,宋凯认为,一是职业联赛治理取得历史性突破。跨部门协作重拳打击“假赌黑”取得明显成效,职业联赛“管办分离”时隔10年终于“破冰”,中国足球职业联赛联合会已获批准成立。二是国家队建设取得明显成效。男足国家队在2026世界杯亚洲区预选赛18强赛取得两连胜,拼出了精气神。三是青少年足球扎实推进。四是社会足球焕发生机活力。五是专业人才队伍建设实现预期目标,等级教练员注册总量突破10万人。六是足球行业发展信心明显增强。

国家体育总局副局长、中国足协党委书记张家胜表示,一年来,足球领域以案促改促治工作初见成效,足球重点领域改革破题开篇,足球工作初步扭转了被动局面,形成了积极主动、稳中向好的工作态势。这些成绩极大改善了中国足球改革发展的环境,极大增强了做好足球工作的信心和决心。

张家胜说,在看到希望、坚定信心的同时,要更加清醒地认识到,过去一年所做的工作主要是建章立制打基础,距离真正落地见成效还有很大差距,距离广大人民群众的期盼还有很大距离,一些深层次矛盾问题仍待解决。

对于中国足协2025年的主要任务,宋凯表示,将包括加强党对足球工作的全面领导、加快推进职业联赛“管办分离”、进一步强化国家队建设、深化女子足球改革发展、扎实推动青少年足球走深走实、深入推进足球反腐和行风整治、持续加强中国足协自身建设等方面。

此外,会议选举增补北京理工大学党委常委、副校长李振键为中国足协第十二届执委会委员,中国公安体育协会被吸纳为中国足协会员。

网络编辑:明非

R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. Ambassador, Says China Is Aligned With ‘Agents of Disorder’

10 January 2025 at 13:13
R. Nicholas Burns, the top U.S. diplomat in Beijing, says the Biden administration is making a final push to urge China to reconsider its tilt toward Russia, Iran and North Korea.

© Eric Lee/The New York Times

U.S. ambassador to China R. Nicholas Burns, at left, with Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, and President Biden during a meeting in November with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and other top officials.

不讲女德FistsUnchained|今天胡友平的庭审,静悄悄

By: unknown
10 January 2025 at 12:58
CDT 档案卡
标题:今天胡友平的庭审,静悄悄
作者:理饿、李宇琛
发表日期:2025.1.9
来源:不讲女德FistsUnchained
主题归类:胡友平
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

2025年1月9日,苏州市中级人民法院。

这是一桩曾引起不小震动的案子。

日本母子在公交站被刀刺伤、一个中国女性为挡刀身亡,终在今日开庭。

按理说,中日两国当初都颇为关注,多少人以为会闹得沸沸扬扬。

可这几天,网络上没有官方的公告传播,只有零星几家媒体:

在开庭当天才发布消息。

透露消息的只说是中日相关人士:

而他们前一天才透露此事。

没人解释缘由,也没什么现场报道。

就像一阵风吹过,没人拦得住。

当初惊动四方,如今却成了一张平淡的庭审排期表——时间、地点、案由,仅此而已。

有心人想问个究竟,但并未见更多消息流出:

也没有公开庭审的信息。

案子依然是那个案子,影响依旧很大,但在此刻却失了声音。

仿佛公众记忆在几个月里被消磨殆尽。

人们绕过法院大门匆匆而过,留下一个问题悬在半空。

曾经轰动的事实,为何如今静得好似从未发生?

1

当时,中国外交部发言人例行记者会里称这是一场:

偶发事件。

并在记者问到如何评价世界上最安全的国家之一时,回答道:

你生活在中国,相信能感受到中国很安全。

在当地警方的通报里,没有点名仇日或报复社会,更没提那名行凶者的身份和动机。

毕竟:

说太多有风险,说太少也无妨。

偶发二字用处广泛,既可以安抚情绪:

也可以终结追问。

日本方面则敏锐得多。

日本驻上海总领事馆总领事向苏州市提出交涉,要求公开案件信息、加强警备。

日本驻华大使馆对胡友平的英勇行为表示敬意、哀悼,还降半旗致哀。

随后又宣布给予胡友平直系亲属:

永久居留权,发放抚恤金。

这举动让部分网友感到尴尬。

苏州当地给了个:

见义勇为模范称号。

大使馆那边却是降半旗、发抚恤金、给居留权。

听上去,像两家比着表达敬意。

哪一种更能给逝者家属以安慰,很难说。

还有网友在网络上变身福尔摩斯,有人替胡友平鸣不平,也有人:

把矛头对准那对母子。

他国国籍引发的情绪,就像火烧起来容易,想灭却要费劲。

于是网络平台开始删帖,大概是怕火越烧越旺。

在这个故事里,每个人都有自己的立场与逻辑,爱恨交织也不外乎如此。

有人关心作案动机,想问问52岁的行凶男子背后有什么样的故事。

有人试图把仇恨简化为民族情绪,他们:

盯住了日本人这个标签。

也有人痛惜胡友平的去世,说这是一片善心的牺牲,却也只能以叹息收尾。

2

2024年6月24日,下午四点,新地中心公交站。

那天阳光像火,炙烤得人睁不开眼。

本来,那只是一段寻常的初夏时光,嘈杂、潮湿,正好配上汗味与汽车尾气。

不过所有描述,都无法改变接下来发生的事。

一辆黄色校车缓缓停在站台,被太阳照得亮堂堂。

几个孩子在等车,家长们客气地寒暄,估计他们并不知道:

自己正站在那把刀的路径上。

中年妇女胡友平是这辆校车的引导员。

她不厌其烦地提醒孩子们排队上车,好像小学老师那样唠叨,又像个母亲,眼里装着孩子们的手足无措。

或许她自己也没料到,几分钟后,自己会被一个陌生男子的刀光击倒。

如果不是那一声尖叫,大家也许只会埋头刷手机,或者跟孩子谈今晚吃什么。

然而尖叫响了,世界就被一把刀搅得天旋地转。

那名52岁的男子挥刀冲向一对母子,他的表情很坚决,似乎早就认定非要把刀捅进某个人的身体才算数。

胡友平并没有犹豫,直接扔下手里的活儿:

挡在了刀和那对日本母子之间。

她多年如一日的工作经验告诉她,遇到危险,先把孩子护住。

只不过,她以前对付的是过于拥挤的人流或突然急刹车的公交车,而这次:

是一把真正的刀。

校车司机随后加入了搏斗,周围有人尖叫,但更多的人一时愣在原地。

也有人掏出手机,想要拍下点儿什么,还不知道:

拍出来能不能在网上发得出去。

最后,人群反应过来,上前合力制服了那位行凶者。

毕竟,见义勇为的故事并非只存在影视剧里,而这里:

仍是世界上最安全的国度。

孩子们安然无恙,瘫坐在地上的母子吓得神色惨白,而胡友平倒在血泊中。

两天后,她没能等到奇迹,医院宣告抢救无效。

有人提到,这名男子行凶的目标是:

日本人。

最后,挡在他刀下的是一位中国大姐。

有人说这是:

偶发事件。

3

2024年11月29日,该案嫌疑人已被起诉。

到了2025年1月9日,案子第一次开庭审理。

也许审完后会有新信息,但更多可能是新的问号。

胡友平的家人,不得不开始孤军作战,去办理各种证明,去接受多方慰问,或许深夜里还要应付:

那些追问为什么要出头的声音。

有人可能会安慰她的亲人,起码日本那边会给补偿啊。

但这样的补偿,能替换掉那条鲜活生命吗?

校车上的几十名日本孩子虽然没有受到身体上的伤害,但:

恐怖的氛围一旦出现便无法轻易散去。

多年以后,他们可能还会记得老师口中的那句,当时站台上有个阿姨,保护了你们。

也许他们不知道,那名阿姨为了保护他们挡住了刀。

就像一段城市传说,随时间流逝,越来越朦胧。

悲剧落幕,剩下的是漫长的审理程序和各怀心思的舆论。

到底是什么样的恨意,让一个52岁的男子冲进人群举刀。

又是什么样的力量,让一个普通妇女毫不犹豫冲上去挡刀。

如果说这是偶发,那我们就再等下一次偶发吧。

就如同某些人随口说的口头禅,无可奈何,然后抬头看看被灼烧过的天空:

仿佛一切都不曾发生。

或许有人会在公园长椅上,或者某个论坛里再讨论几句,但更多的人,早已经转身去为自家孩子准备下一顿晚饭了。

究竟该怎样评判这个世界,是个见仁见智的问题。

反正,最安全的国家已经发过通报了,偶发事件也已经立案、审理。

一切井然有序,仿佛夏天的炎热和那一地血迹都只是一场幻觉。

就算记得的人,还会记得多久呢?

再回看那条消息,胡友平,女,54岁,为阻止嫌疑人刺伤母子,不幸殉职。 

简短几句话,好像世界就这样记录了她的离开。

这才是最让人无奈的地方。

热闹的城市终将平静,只余下一点闷热,和一句话:

她怎么就这么冲上去了呢。

没有答案。

就像谁也说不准:

那把刀会不会再次出现。

只是人们已经学会了把新的不安,重新包装成偶发,再往舆论里一扔,像石子沉入河底。

水面倒是恢复了平静,但那个漩涡似乎还没散去,或许在河底翻滚,等待下一次机会。

Boeing and Google give $1m each to Trump's inauguration

10 January 2025 at 11:18
Getty Images US President Donald Trump addresses a crowd at the debut event for the Boeing Dreamliner 787-10 on February 17, 2017.Getty Images
The plane maker has joined the growing list of firms making donations to the fund

US aviation giant Boeing has told BBC News it is donating $1m (£812,600) to an inauguration fund for President-elect Donald Trump.

Google has also confirmed that it has made a similar donation as the two firms join a growing list of major American companies contributing to the fund.

The list also includes oil producer Chevron and technology giants Meta, Amazon and Uber.

Trump's inauguration, marking the start of his second term in the White House, is set to take place on 20 January.

"We are pleased to continue Boeing's bipartisan tradition of supporting US Presidential Inaugural Committees," Boeing said.

The company added that it has made similar donations to each of the past three presidential inauguration funds.

Boeing is working to recover from a safety and quality control crisis, as well as dealing with the losses from a strike last year.

The company is also building the next presidential aircraft, known as Air Force One. The two jets are expected to come into service as early as next year.

During his first term as president, Trump forced the plane maker to renegotiate its contract, calling the initial deal too expensive.

Google became the latest big tech firm to donate to the fund, following similar announcements by Meta and Amazon. It also said it will stream the event around the world.

"Google is pleased to support the 2025 inauguration, with a livestream on YouTube and a direct link on our homepage," said Karan Bhatia, Google's global head of government affairs and public policy.

Car companies Ford, General Motors and Toyota have also donated a $1m each to the inaugural committee.

In the energy industry, Chevron confirmed that it has made a donation to the fund but declined to say how much.

"Chevron has a long tradition of celebrating democracy by supporting the inaugural committees of both parties. We are proud to be doing so again this year," said Bill Turene, Chevron's manager of global media relations.

TikTok的全球困局:备受欢迎的同时在多国面临审查

10 January 2025 at 11:34

简繁中文
纽约时报 出版语言
字体大小

TikTok的全球困局:备受欢迎的同时在多国面临审查

MEAGHAN TOBIN
TikTok在加州卡尔弗城的办公室,该公司本周请求最高法院驳回在美国禁止该应用的法案。
TikTok在加州卡尔弗城的办公室,该公司本周请求最高法院驳回在美国禁止该应用的法案。 Bing Guan/Bloomberg
俄罗斯因TikTok未删除违禁内容而对其处以罚款。由于担心该应用被用于传播外国影响力,罗马尼亚的总统选举结果被推翻。在一名青少年因与另一名青少年在网上争吵将其刺死后,阿尔巴尼亚禁止使用TikTok一年。
“要么TikTok保护阿尔巴尼亚的儿童,要么阿尔巴尼亚保护自己的儿童不受TikTok的伤害,”该国总理埃迪·拉马在X上表示。
这都只是上个月发生的事。
美国约有1.5亿人使用TikTok应用程序,本周,TikTok及其中国母公司字节跳动请求最高法院废除一项法律,该法律将迫使TikTok出售或禁用该应用程序。
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近年来,TikTok在世界各地受到法律和政治审查,至少在20个国家面临全面或部分禁令,这些政府对其与中国的关系及其广泛的影响力,尤其是在年轻人中的影响力感到警惕。
尽管受到越来越多的审查,TikTok仍然在全球范围内大受欢迎。每月有超过10亿人使用该应用。
TikTok的新颖性来自其专有算法,该算法推荐源源不断的内容,主要是短视频,以让人们持续滚动浏览。字节跳动于2016年通过TikTok的中国版应用抖音首创了这一技术,后者已成为中国最受欢迎的应用之一,并为公司带来了大部分收入。字节跳动知道这可能会在海外大受欢迎,于是在2017年推出了TikTok。
但是,随着TikTok的算法抓住了全世界的注意力,立法者们也警惕起来,他们认为TikTok已经从一个猫咪视频和舞蹈潮流为主的平台迅速转变成一股具有潜在破坏性的社会、政治和经济力量。
TikTok首席执行官周受资在新加坡。2023年3月,他就该应用的安全性和与中国的关系在国会作证。
TikTok首席执行官周受资在新加坡。2023年3月,他就该应用的安全性和与中国的关系在国会作证。 Ore Huiying for The New York Times
从蒙大拿州到新西兰的官员都警告称,TikTok可能被用来煽动暴力、传播虚假信息和恶化心理健康。立法者还担心,TikTok可能会与中国政府共享用户数据,如位置和浏览历史。阿尔巴尼亚总理拉拉马说,需要保护年轻人,以防“算法的可怕陷阱”。
TikTok坚称这些担忧被夸大了。该公司在一份声明中表示,它有专门打击影响力行动的团队,并将其操作公之于众。公司还表示,会在算法中“保持内容中立”,并基于用户表示感兴趣的程度对内容进行排名。
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TikTok称,字节跳动的多数股权由全球投资者持有。与此同时,中国政府声称有权反对任何出售。
随着其他中国公司寻求在海外开展更多业务,TikTok已成为一个典范和警示。该应用表明,一种首先在中国流行的新型娱乐方式可以在其他地方流行起来。但它也为针对Temu和Shein等中国应用程序的抵制铺平了道路。
常驻美国的互联资本创始人凯文·徐(音)表示:“感觉现在每个中国企业家都需要一个政治学或国际关系学位,才能够把握自己的未来。”互联资本是一家投资人工智能技术的对冲基金。
新加坡咨询公司墨腾企服的首席执行官李江玕表示,其他拥有全球互联网产品的公司,如Meta和谷歌,也面临着全球范围内的审查。他说:“但作为美国公司,它们不会像TikTok一样面临西方政客和监管机构的不信任。”
以下是各国政府对TikTok的打击情况。
全面禁止:印度和尼泊尔
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美国的禁令可能会使TikTok失去最重要的市场之一。但TikTok已经经历过失去当时最大的受众群体。2020年,印度与中国之间蓄势已久的地缘政治冲突发展成为边境上的近身格斗,印度政府随后禁止了TikTok。
TikTok从应用商店消失,其网站也被封锁,这迫使以该应用为生的创作者在其他平台上重建受众。虽然出现了一些本土的替代品,但美国科技巨头是最大的赢家。YouTube和Instagram目前在印度的用户数量大约是美国的两倍。
印度邻国尼泊尔的官员将TikTok下架近一年,原因是其拒绝遏制被政府称为破坏“社会和谐”的仇恨言论的内容。在现任总理夏尔马·奥利第四次执掌政府后,禁令于去年8月被推翻。
去年冬天,TikTok的创作者们在华盛顿集会,支持这款应用。
去年冬天,TikTok的创作者们在华盛顿集会,支持这款应用。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
罚款和被迫与当地企业合作:俄罗斯和印度尼西亚
俄罗斯政府多次对TikTok进行罚款,原因是该应用允许传播不符合国家审查规定的内容,包括性、性别和女权主义等话题。俄罗斯法院在过去六个月中开出的两张最新罚单总计约9万美元。
在印度尼西亚,TikTok推出了在线购物,并将其作为新的收入来源。在这个东南亚最大的国家,该应用的用户数量几乎与美国相当。但在2023年,印尼政府通过了一项法律,迫使TikTok在短短几天内关闭了在线购物业务。
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TikTok Shop在与印尼最大电子商务公司Tokopedia合并后才得以重新营业。对许多店主来说,重建受众群的工作进展缓慢,但对TikTok来说,这场磨难带来了一个好处:可以利用送货司机和物流服务网络,将包裹送达印尼的17000个岛屿。
在政府设备上屏蔽:台湾、英国、加拿大和其他国家
一些政府试图在对TikTok安全性的担忧和言论自由之间取得平衡。
台湾在2019年禁止政府设备使用该应用程序。但官员们表示,他们并没有考虑全面禁止,因为他们不想遏制台湾的公共辩论文化。英国、澳大利亚和法国,以及欧盟执行机构和新西兰议会都采取了同样的做法。加拿大政府去年11月以字节跳动带来的国家安全风险为由,指示TikTok关闭在该国的分公司,当时TikTok已被禁止在政府配发的移动设备上使用。
TikTok在上个月向加拿大法院提交的文件中对这一命令发起质疑,称加拿大政府曾指示其推迟提交逾期的文件,直到美国决定对该公司的处理方式。

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9/11 guilty pleas delayed after US government objects

10 January 2025 at 09:09
Reuters Aerial photo the prison at Guantanamo Bay shows high fences topped with barbed wire, several cameras on poles and a watch tower. There are trees and brush in the background as well as another fenceReuters

The accused mastermind of the 9/11 terror attacks on the US will no longer plead guilty on Friday, after the US government moved to block plea deals reached last year from going ahead.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two co-defendants reached agreements in July to plead guilty to all charges in exchange for not facing a death penalty trial.

In a filing with a federal appeals court, the justice department argued that the government would be irreparably harmed if the pleas were accepted.

In its decision, the court said it needed more time to weigh the case and put the proceedings on hold. It has not yet ruled on whether Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has the power to walk back the plea deal.

The ruling comes after a military judge and appeals panel rejected a previous move by Austin to revoke the agreements, which had been signed by a senior official he appointed.

Families of some of those killed in the 9/11 attacks had criticised the deals, while others saw them as a way of moving the complex and long-running case forward.

In its filing, the government said going ahead with the deals would mean it was denied the opportunity to "seek capital punishment against three men charged with a heinous act of mass murder that caused the death of thousands of people and shocked the nation and the world".

"A short delay to allow this Court to weigh the merits of the government's request in this momentous case will not materially harm the respondents," it said.

Almost 3,000 people were killed in the 11 September 2001 attacks, when hijackers seized passenger planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon outside of Washington. Another plane crashed into a field in Pennsylvania after passengers fought back.

The three men have been in US custody for over 20 years and the pre-trial hearings in the case have lasted for more than a decade.

Arguments have focused on whether evidence has been tainted by torture the defendants faced in CIA custody after their arrests.

Getty Images Split headshot photo of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. In one on the right, he is wearing a suit and the left one shows him in a white shirt with his head covered and wearing glassesGetty Images
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged 'ringleader' of the 9/11 plot

Mohammed was subjected to simulated drowning, or "waterboarding", 183 times while held in secret CIA prisons following his arrest in 2003. Other so-called "advanced interrogation techniques" included sleep deprivation and forced nudity.

Several family members of victims had criticised the deal struck last year as being too lenient.

Speaking to the BBC's Today Programme last summer, Terry Strada, whose husband, Tom, died in the attacks, described the deals as "giving the detainees in Guantanamo Bay what they want".

Others said they were disappointed by further delays to the case.

Stephan Gerhardt, whose younger brother Ralph was killed in the attacks, flew to Guantanamo Bay to watch Mohammed plead guilty.

He said that while the deals were "not a victory" for the families, he had accepted them as a way of moving forward.

"It's not the conclusion to this case that anyone wanted… [But] it is time to find a way to close this, to convict these men because they're not getting younger, they're not in great health," he said.

"Let's convict them so they don't die innocent because that would be the bigger moral tragedy that they die innocent and the families don't even have a conviction."

Police search for missing sisters last seen three days ago

10 January 2025 at 09:17
Family handout Eliza and Henrietta Huszti smiling at a camera Family handout
Eliza and Henrietta Huszti were last seen in the early hours of Tuesday in Aberdeen city centre

Police are searching for two sisters in Aberdeen who were last seen three days ago.

Eliza and Henrietta Huszti, both 32 and who live in Aberdeen city centre, were last seen in Market Street at Victoria Bridge at about 02:12 GMT on Tuesday.

They then crossed the bridge and turned into a footpath next to the River Dee in the direction of Aberdeen Boat Club.

Police Scotland said they are carrying "extensive enquires" and searches to find the sisters, including the use of police dogs and the marine unit.

Family handout CCTV showing Eliza and Henrietta Huszti walking in Aberdeen city centreFamily handout
The Huszti sisters were last seen on CCTV in Aberdeen's Market Street at Victoria Bridge

Both Eliza and Henrietta are described as being white, slim build with long, brown hair.

Police said the side of Victoria Bridge in the Torry area, where they were last seen, contained many commercial and industrial units and searches are ongoing there.

It added it was urging businesses in and around the South Esplanade and Menzies Road area to review CCTV footage recorded in the early hours of Tuesday and dashcam footage.

Ch Insp Darren Bruce said: "We are continuing to speak to people who know Eliza and Henrietta and we urge anyone who has seen them or who has any information regarding their whereabouts to please contact 101 quoting incident number 0735 of Tuesday, 7 January, 2025."

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