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Today — 3 April 2025News

Chris Mason: UK relief but not delight at Trump tariffs

3 April 2025 at 12:43
EPA Keir Starmer is seen in close up with a blurred Union Jack flag in the background. He has a serious and pensive look on his face. EPA
The prime minister is meeting affected businesses today and the business secretary will address the Commons.

Office lights in some corners of Westminster were on much later than usual last night.

Why? Because ministers and officials, just like so many others, were watching the telly to see what President Trump would have to say, the Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds among them.

The president, brandishing a giant rectangular piece of card packed with the new tariff increases, unleashing waves of anxiety across factory floors, boardrooms and government ministries the world over.

Folk in government in the UK had picked up a sense of the mood music – a sense that the UK was "in the good camp rather than the bad camp" as one figure put it to me – but they had no idea in advance precisely what that would mean.

We now do know what it means.

I detect a sense of relief among ministers, but make no mistake they are not delighted – the tariffs imposed on the UK will have significant effects, and the tariffs on the UK's trading partners will have a profound impact on jobs, industries and global trading flows in the weeks, months and years to come.

It will be "hugely disruptive," as one government source put it.

There is an acute awareness in particular about the impact on the car industry.

Negotiations with America over a trade deal continue.

I am told a team of four UK negotiators are in "pretty intensive" conversation with their American counterparts – talking remotely, but willing to head to Washington if signing a deal appears imminent.

Let's see.

Those on the UK side characterise the discussions as "more like a corporate conversation than a trade negotiation", putting that down to the personnel, outlook and biographies of plenty in the Trump administration.

The other point being seized upon at Westminster, in particular by the Conservatives, is the difference between how the UK is being treated compared to the European Union – with plenty pointing to it as a dividend of Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats, by contrast, think the UK should work with Commonwealth and European allies to stand up to President Trump and impose retaliatory tariffs "if necessary".

The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is meeting affected businesses on Thursday and the business secretary will address the Commons.

The next chapter of this economic revolution begins now, with how the world reacts, in rhetoric and retaliation.

This in itself will have a huge impact.

Whether, how and when some choose to respond will have economic and political consequences at home and abroad.

The global story of Donald Trump's tariffs is only just beginning.

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川普宣布對等關稅措施 主要經濟體稅率一次看

3 April 2025 at 13:17

2025-04-03T04:39:13.253Z
美國總統川普4月2日公布對等關稅措施

(德國之聲中文網)美國總統川普週三(4月2日)在白宮玫瑰花園舉行「讓美國再次富有」(Make America Wealthy Again)記者會,宣布了這項預期影響巨大的關稅措施。川普在演說中稱,他將簽署一項行政命令,並將關稅計劃形容為「經濟獨立的宣言」,他稱這項計劃將「讓美國再次富裕」。

根據川普公布的內容,美國對大多數國家徵收10%的基準關稅,但針對特定國家徵收的稅額更高。中國、歐盟和越南分別面臨34%、20%和46%的關稅; 日本、韓國、印度、柬埔寨和台灣,分別受到24%、25%、26%、49%和32%進口關稅的打擊。

川普表示,最新公布的對等關稅措施,是針對其他國家向美國商品徵收關稅和其他非關稅壁壘的回應,「我們將向他們收取大約一半(稅率)......因此關稅並不完全對等 」

川普稱美國長期被各國「糟蹋」、「他們這樣對我們,我們也對他們這樣做」、「在許多情況下,朋友比敵人更糟糕」,主張此舉將促進國內的製造業發展,把工廠和工作機會帶回美國,美國也將打開外國市場、瓦解他國設下的貿易壁壘,並認為此舉將降低美國物價。

但有經濟學家此前警告,這項新的關稅措施可能會導致全球經濟放緩,增加經濟衰退的風險,並使美國普通家庭的生活成本增加數千美元。

據白宮公告,10%的基準關稅將在本週六(5日)午夜後生效,更高稅率的對等關稅則是預計在下週三(9日)午夜後生效。

值得注意的是,川普政府週三也公布一系列不受到此次對等關稅影響的商品,分別是早前已被加徵關稅的鋼鐵、鋁汽車。目前,銅、藥品、半導體和木材也暫時未涵蓋在這波對等關稅措施中。

川普對等關稅措施引發全球市場緊張

中國累計關稅超過50%

川普在演說中點名競爭對手中國,批評北京「操縱貨幣和設立貿易壁壘」,因此將對中國再加徵34%的關稅。若加上川普此前已經對來自中國的所有進口商品徵收20%的關稅,累積稅率達到了54%。

除此之外,川普週三也簽署另一項行政命令,終結對中國包裹的小額豁免(價值低於800美元的包裹可免除關稅)政策,意味著中國電商平台未來可能將面臨更多審查。分析人士警告,目前透過Temu或Shein等平台進口的一些商品可能不再被允許進入美國。

根據白宮說法,川普此舉是為了打擊中國在芬太尼危機中的作為,批評許多人將類阿片藥物在內的非法物品藏在價值低的包裹中,利用小額豁免鑽貿易漏洞。

亞洲盟友也成箭靶

川普此波全面對等關稅也波及多個亞洲地區的主要盟友,日本及韓國分別被加徵24%及25%的關稅,台灣則是被徵稅32%。

川普在演說中重申過往說法,指台灣拿走了美國晶片和半導體產業,美國過去是該產業的王者,但如今幾乎失去一切。不過他也提及台積電赴美投資一事,稱台積電董事長魏哲家來自全球最棒的企業之一,並且將在美國興建全球最大的廠房之一。

歐盟被徵稅20%、加墨獲排除

針對多次被川普批評「坑害」美國的歐盟,在此次對等關稅措施中則被加徵20%的關稅。

川普週三稱:「歐盟在剝削我們,讓人看得太難過了。」

另外,川普政府指出,由於加拿大及墨西哥當前已經正在繳納25%的進口關稅,因此將免於繳納10%基準關稅以及對等關稅。

各方如何反應?

中國:中國商務部週四(3日)上午發出聲明,指美國「聲稱自己在國際貿易中吃了虧......(對等關稅)罔顧多年來多邊貿易談判達成的利益平衡結果,也無視美方長期從國際貿易中大量獲利的事實。」

商務部聲明批評對等關稅、不符合國際貿易規則,「是典型的單邊霸凌做法」,強調此舉解決不了美國自身問題,「損害美國自身利益,也危及全球經濟發展和產供鏈穩定」,呼籲美方立即取消單邊關稅措施,與貿易夥伴通過平等對話妥善解決分歧。

英國:英國商業暨貿易大臣雷諾茲(Jonathan Reynolds)回應:「我們的方法是保持冷靜,並致力於完成這筆交易,希望能減輕已經宣布的事情的影響。」他也強調,英國政府將繼續捍衛國家的利益,「沒有什麼是不可考慮的」。

巴西:巴西政府週三表示,美國聲稱關稅是對等的說法「未反應出現實」,「正在評估所有可能的行動,以確保雙邊貿易的互惠,包括訴諸世界貿易組織,以捍衛合法的國家利益。」但也補充稱,該國仍對對話持開放態度。

澳洲:澳大利亞總理阿爾巴尼斯指出,美國的關稅措施「違背了我們兩國夥伴關係的基礎......不是朋友的行為」,但排除了對美國徵收對等關稅的可能性,以避免提高澳洲家庭生活成本,稱接下來將尋求與美國談判。

瑞士:瑞士總統凱勒-薩特(Karin Keller-Sutter)在社群平台X上發文,稱瑞士將「快速決定」下一步行動,並補充說「國家的長期經濟利益是最重要的。遵守國際法和自由貿易仍是核心價值。」

義大利:義大利總理梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)呼籲美國與歐盟達成協議,警告貿易戰將削弱西方實力,「(美國對歐盟徵稅)我認為這是錯誤的舉措,對雙方都不利。」

梅洛尼說:「我們將盡我們所能努力與美國達成協議,避免掀起貿易戰。」

美國財政部長貝森特(Scott Bessent)接受福斯新聞訪問時則警告受影響國家:「不要報復」,揚言對美方的任何報復行動,都會進一步升高情勢。

(綜合報導)

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© 2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。

墙外文摘:习近平反腐,其实是在制造腐败

3 April 2025 at 12:47
null 墙外文摘
2025-03-30T13:43:22.269Z

(德国之声中文网)时事节目“不明白播客”主持人袁莉采访了美国加州克莱蒙特·麦肯纳学院政治学教授裴敏欣,讨论“习近平反腐为何越反越腐”。

节目比较了刚发布的中纪委报告和去年的报告,2023年的反腐立案总件数是62.6万件,留置人数是2.6万,处分了61万人。到了2024年,它们分别增加到87.7万、3.8万和88.9万。2023年批评教育处分和追究刑事责任的人次是172万人,2024年这个数字上升到了215万人。其他比如政治纪律处分,中管干部查处,行贿案件立案各种各样的项目的数字都有增长。

裴敏欣认为,中共的反腐运动是违背专业知识的。其实在学术界有很多很多关于治理腐败的文献。这些研究认为根治腐败不能通过反腐运动来反腐。不能为了反腐而反腐,那肯定是反不了腐。造成腐败的基本原因不外乎这些:第一,政府运作不透明。第二,没有公众监督,特别媒体、民间团体的监督。第三,政府对经济的干预过多,特别是通过国有企业和各种各样的行政规章制度对资产占有、分配。过去的12年里,习近平做的基本上是相反的,政府对经济的干预越来越多,对民间团体的打压、言论的管控越来越严,这使得腐败没有从根本上去治理。出现越反越腐的现象,一点都不奇怪。

习近平和特朗普应该谈谈AI?

《纽约时报》发表文章《为什么我认为特朗普和习近平应该尽快会面》,作者托马斯·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)认为,人工智能系统和人形机器人能为人类带来诸多潜在的益处,但如果不赋予它们正确的价值观并加以控制,它们可能具有巨大的破坏性,甚至会破坏社会稳定。此外,这个新时代的主题必须是大量规划当机器在很多事情上做得比人好时,人类将从事什么工作,以及如何维护人类从工作中获得的尊严。成百上千万人可能同时失去工作和尊严,这将会引发社会混乱。

文章说,中美两国之间的不信任已经到了无以复加的地步。因此,要求两国相互信任,合作建立一个道德的推理系统,确保我们得到人工智能最好的一面,缓和最坏的一面,这听起来非常荒谬。但是,两国领导者应该从软件技术公司如何使用“合作竞争”(指竞争者之间的合作)中学到东西。苹果、微软、谷歌和Meta都想在商业上摧毁彼此,但它们最终意识到,如果它们在一些基本标准上进行合作,而不是各自为政,就可以为它们原本独立的产品和服务大规模扩展市场。如果两国之间没有信任,而每个国家都有自己的人工智能系统,这将是加强版的TikTok问题。

台湾青年能接住中共的就业橄榄枝吗?

台湾“上报”发表文章《不顾中国青年失业,却向台湾青年抛就业橄榄枝?》,作者MC小臣指出,随着中国经济增长放缓,青年失业问题日益严峻。根据中国教育部数据,2025年高校毕业生将达1222万人,连续多年创新高。然而,就业市场却无法吸纳如此庞大的毕业生群体,许多应届生面临“毕业即失业”的窘境。2023年,中国官方公布的高校毕业生就业率为55.7%,但有学者指出,实际数据可能不足三成。甚至在经济发达的上海,也未能达到官方标准。为了掩饰就业困境,中共将“灵活就业”纳入统计,例如外送员、自媒体从业者等,只要每周工作一小时,即不计入失业人口,导致数据失真。

然而,在中国毕业生就业困境加剧的同时,北京政府却积极向台湾青年抛出“就业橄榄枝”。近期,中共推出多项对台优惠政策,鼓励台湾青年赴陆发展,包括提供创业补助、专案奖励、低门槛就业机会等。

作者提醒有意赴陆发展的台湾青年,需审慎评估风险,包括中共政策不确定性,言论自由受限等政治风险,中国科技、制造业面临国际制裁,中共统战与身份认同操作等等。

摘编自其他媒体的内容,不代表德国之声的立场或观点。

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©2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到着作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。



川普宣布對等關稅措施 各國稅額一次看

3 April 2025 at 12:47

2025-04-03T04:39:13.253Z
美國總統川普4月2日公布對等關稅措施

(德國之聲中文網)美國總統川普週三(4月2日)在白宮玫瑰花園舉行「讓美國再次富有」(Make America Wealthy Again)記者會,宣布了這項預期影響巨大的關稅措施。川普在演說中稱,他將簽署一項行政命令,並將關稅計劃形容為「經濟獨立的宣言」,他稱這項計劃將「讓美國再次富裕」。

根據川普公布的內容,美國對大多數國家徵收10%的基準關稅,但針對特定國家徵收的稅額更高。中國、歐盟和越南分別面臨34%、20%和46%的關稅; 日本、韓國、印度、柬埔寨和台灣,分別受到24%、25%、26%、49%和32%進口關稅的打擊。

川普表示,最新公布的對等關稅措施,是針對其他國家向美國商品徵收關稅和其他非關稅壁壘的回應,「我們將向他們收取大約一半(稅額)......因此關稅並不完全對等 」

川普稱美國長期被各國「糟蹋」、「他們這樣對我們,我們也對他們這樣做」、「在許多情況下,朋友比敵人更糟糕」,主張此舉將促進國內的製造業發展,把工廠和工作機會帶回美國,美國也將打開外國市場、瓦解他國設下的貿易壁壘,並主張此舉將降低美國物價。

但有經濟學家此前警告,這項新的關稅措施可能會導致全球經濟放緩,增加經濟衰退的風險,並使美國普通家庭的生活成本增加數千美元。

據白宮公告,10%的基準關稅將在本週六(5日)午夜後生效,更高稅額的對等關稅則是預計在下週三(9日)午夜後生效。

值得注意的是,川普政府週三也公布一系列不受到此次對等關稅影響的商品,分別是早前已被加徵關稅的鋼鐵、鋁汽車。目前,銅、藥品、半導體和木材也暫時未涵蓋在這波對等關稅措施中。

川普對等關稅措施引發全球市場緊張

中國累計關稅超過50%

川普在演說中點名競爭對手中國,批評北京「操縱貨幣和設立貿易壁壘」,因此將對中國再加徵34%的關稅。若加上川普此前已經對來自中國的所有進口商品徵收20%的關稅,累積稅額達到了54%。

除此之外,川普週三也簽署另一項行政命令,終結對中國包裹的小額豁免(價值低於800美元的包裹可免除關稅)政策,意味著中國電商平台未來可能將面臨更多審查。分析人士警告,目前透過Temu或Shein等平台進口的一些商品可能不再被允許進入美國。

根據白宮說法,川普此舉是為了打擊中國在芬太尼危機中的作為,批評許多人將類阿片藥物在內的非法物品藏在價值低的包裹中,利用小額豁免鑽貿易漏洞。

亞洲盟友也成箭靶

川普此波全面對等關稅也波及多個亞洲地區的主要盟友,日本及韓國分別被加徵24%及25%的關稅,台灣則是被徵稅32%。

川普在演說中重申過往說法,指台灣拿走了美國晶片和半導體產業,美國過去是該產業的王者,但如今幾乎失去一切。不過他也提及台積電赴美投資一事,稱台積電董事長魏哲家來自全球最棒的企業之一,並且將在美國興建全球最大的廠房之一。

歐盟被徵稅20%、加墨獲排除

針對多次被川普批評「坑害」美國的歐盟,在此次對等關稅措施中則被加徵20%的關稅。

川普週三稱:「歐盟在剝削我們,讓人看得太難過了。」

另外,川普政府指出,由於加拿大及墨西哥當前已經正在繳納25%的進口關稅,因此將免於繳納10%基準關稅以及對等關稅。

各方如何反應?

中國:中國商務部週四(3日)上午發出聲明,指美國「聲稱自己在國際貿易中吃了虧......(對等關稅)罔顧多年來多邊貿易談判達成的利益平衡結果,也無視美方長期從國際貿易中大量獲利的事實。」

商務部聲明批評對等關稅、不符合國際貿易規則,「是典型的單邊霸凌做法」,強調此舉解決不了美國自身問題,「損害美國自身利益,也危及全球經濟發展和產供鏈穩定」,呼籲美方立即取消單邊關稅措施,與貿易夥伴通過平等對話妥善解決分歧。

英國:英國商業暨貿易大臣雷諾茲(Jonathan Reynolds)回應:「我們的方法是保持冷靜,並致力於完成這筆交易,希望能減輕已經宣布的事情的影響。」他也強調,英國政府將繼續捍衛國家的利益,「沒有什麼是不可考慮的」。

巴西:巴西政府週三表示,美國聲稱關稅是對等的說法「未反應出現實」,「正在評估所有可能的行動,以確保雙邊貿易的互惠,包括訴諸世界貿易組織,以捍衛合法的國家利益。」但也補充稱,該國仍對對話持開放態度。

澳洲:澳大利亞總理阿爾巴尼斯指出,美國的關稅措施「違背了我們兩國夥伴關係的基礎......不是朋友的行為」,但排除了對美國徵收對等關稅的可能性,以避免提高澳洲家庭生活成本,稱接下來將尋求與美國談判。

瑞士:瑞士總統凱勒-薩特(Karin Keller-Sutter)在社群平台X上發文,稱瑞士將「快速決定」下一步行動,並補充說「國家的長期經濟利益是最重要的。遵守國際法和自由貿易仍是核心價值。」

義大利:義大利總理梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)呼籲美國與歐盟達成協議,警告貿易戰將削弱西方實力,「(美國對歐盟徵稅)我認為這是錯誤的舉措,對雙方都不利。」

梅洛尼說:「我們將盡我們所能努力與美國達成協議,避免掀起貿易戰。」

美國財政部長貝森特(Scott Bessent)接受福斯新聞訪問時則警告受影響國家:「不要報復」,揚言對美方的任何報復行動,都會進一步升高情勢。

(綜合報導)

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© 2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。

降准降息如何“择机”?访清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩

降准、降息是央行的重要政策选项,以加大宽松力度,稳定市场预期,激发经济活力。

从“保持物价总体稳定”变为“保持物价处于合理水平”,体现了货币政策在目标设定上更加细致和精准。

南方周末记者 吴超

责任编辑:张玥

上海浦东发展银行。视觉中国/图

上海浦东发展银行。视觉中国/图

2025年3月18日,中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开了第一季度例会。会议建议,加大货币政策调控强度。择机降准降息。保持流动性充裕,引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。

2025年政府工作报告中,将连续实施了14年的“稳健的货币政策”调整为“适度宽松的货币政策”。

这样一系列政策信号,意味着什么?货币政策的调整会为经济带来怎样的改变?

为此,南方周末记者专访了清华大学国家金融研究院院长、金融学讲席教授田轩,他长期从事公司金融领域研究。2023年7月,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家座谈会,田轩出席会议并作了发言。

“择机降准降息”

南方周末:央行表示将择机降准降息,“择机”将受到哪些因素影响?

田轩:在经济增长动能减弱,或金融市场出现流动性紧张时,降准、降息(即降低存款准备金率和利率)是央行的重要政策选项,以加大宽松力度,稳定市场预期,激发经济活力。

在时机的选择上,需要平衡内外部经济环境,包括通胀水平、就业状况、房地产、资金空转问题等内部因素,以及资本外流、汇率波动压力等外部因素。还要考虑之前已出台政策的效果和累积效应,避免过度宽松引发通胀风险,并避免降息带来的息差缩窄,对银行经营造成过大压力。

南方周末:如何理解货币政策的立场是支持性的?

田轩:支持性的货币政策是在

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特朗普签署行政令,对贸易伙伴征收“对等关税”

3 April 2025 at 09:57

央视新闻

当地时间4月2日,美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓“对等关税”的行政令,宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的“最低基准关税”,并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。

特朗普宣布实施“对等关税”措施

当地时间4月2日,美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的“对等关税”措施。特朗普表示,他将签署行政命令,对多国实施“对等关税”。

特朗普表示,美国将计算对美国构成了极大威胁的国家的所有关税、非关税壁垒和其他形式的综合税率。关税将不是完全对等的,美国将向这些国家收取大约一半的费用。

此前,多个贸易伙伴已表示将采取反制措施予以回应。

多方反对美加征关税政策

美国关税政策落地前夕,多方4月1日密集表态,对此表示反对。

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示,欧盟有强有力的反制计划,必要时将反击美国关税政策。冯德莱恩还表示,美国广泛加征关税只会让国际贸易状况变得更糟。

加拿大总理卡尼4月1日表示,加方拒绝一切试图削弱加拿大的企图,如果美国对加拿大额外加征关税,加拿大将对此进行报复。

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆4月1日称,美国的加征关税政策将对世界经济产生负面影响,墨西哥将采取措施保护本国人民和就业。

此前,美国公布了一份清单,将澳大利亚的制药等行业列为美国加征关税政策的潜在目标。当地时间4月1日,澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯表示,澳大利亚不会对美国做出让步,相关问题没有谈判余地。

网络编辑:明非

AI和机器人,广东如何抢跑新赛道?

人工智能和机器人产业单个外资项目,在政策实施期内最高可按照3%奖补比例,封顶1.5亿元进行奖励。

广东省人工智能领域国家专精特新“小巨人”企业数量位居全国第一。

南方周末记者 赵继林

责任编辑:张玥

4月1日广东省新闻发布会现场。南方周末记者 赵继林/摄

2025年4月1日,广东省人民政府新闻发布会现场。南方周末记者 赵继林/摄

“诚挚欢迎广大有志青年、企业家、科学家和投资者到广东投资兴业,推动更多好项目、好企业落户广东。”2025年4月1日,广东省副省长王胜在广东省新闻办举行的《广东省推动人工智能与机器人产业创新发展若干政策措施》(下称《政策措施》)新闻发布会上说。

王胜表示,《政策措施》的出台,将在全省进一步凝聚共识、坚定信心,加快打造全球重要的人工智能和机器人产业发展新高地。

今年以来,“人工智能”“机器人”在广东成为热门词汇。“新春第一会”广东全省高质量发展大会上明确,要在人工智能和机器人两大领域下大决心、集中发力。随后,广东召开人工智能与机器人产业发展座谈会,提出将汇聚最优资源、集聚最大力量,加快打造人工智能与机器人产业高地。

成果集中涌现

凭借强大的工业基础和产业链,广东在人工智能领域展现出强劲的发展势头。

过去一年,广东人工智能核心产业规模超过2200亿元,稳居全国第一方阵;全省人工智能核心企业超

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地震中曼谷唯一倒塌的高楼:中国承建商遭质疑

简繁中文
纽约时报 出版语言
字体大小

地震中曼谷唯一倒塌的高楼:中国承建商遭质疑

DAMIEN CAVE, MUKTITA SUHARTONO
周二,曼谷倒塌建筑现场。
周二,曼谷倒塌建筑现场。 Chanakarn Laosarakham/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
上周五在数百公里外的缅甸发生地震期间,曼谷只有一栋建筑倒塌。救援工作仍在继续,至少15人死亡,数十人失踪。确定事故原因可能需要数月时间。
但对现场工人的采访,以及早期的官方调查结果,凸显了建筑设计和质量方面的潜在问题。
中铁十局是此次调查的焦点,这家中国国有企业在泰国还有十几个其他项目,灾难发生后,该公司的承包商试图从现场移走文件。
这家中国公司背后的母公司中国国家铁路集团是一家负债累累、急需新项目的中国基础设施巨头,其子公司在几个国家面临安全薄弱的指责。
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曼谷的工人告诉《纽约时报》,中铁十局是该建筑施工财团的成员之一,他们向承包商支付了较低的报酬,这些承包商使用的材料质量较差,而且使用了比平常更窄的立柱。
泰国官员对废墟中扭曲的金属进行了检测,称他们发现了不合格的钢筋,这些钢筋由一家泰国工厂制造,工厂的所有者是中国人,当局已于去年12月关闭了这家工厂。
一家反腐败监督机构还表示,在3月28日逃离的工人们眼睁睁地看着这栋30层的高楼坍塌之前,该机构就已经发现了施工过程中的违规行为。
“我站在三楼的柱子那里往后看,横梁并没有破裂,”38岁的电工内提蓬·帕通说,周二,勉强逃过一劫的他在现场等待失踪朋友的消息。“由于里面的金属被挤压,它们碎裂了。”
泰国官员将此次倒塌事件描述为对国家形象的打击,他们已采取积极行动,调查与该大厦签订6200万美元建筑合同的财团。这座大厦原本是为政府审计员提供的办公场所。
在周二的内阁会议上,泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦下令当局也要审查泰国所有涉及中铁十局的项目。她没有提及中铁十局的母公司是否会受到调查。
“我们确实需要找到一个答案,”佩通坦告诉记者。“我们需要告诉人民和全世界,在泰国发生了什么。”
周三,泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦在大楼倒塌现场问候等待消息的人们。
周三,泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦在大楼倒塌现场问候等待消息的人们。 Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
压力之下
这座30层高楼的合资项目于2018年在泰国注册,其中包括泰国开发商意大利-泰国开发公司,但据工人说,日常运营由中铁十局负责。
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这家中国公司最近发布的一段宣传视频展示了无人机拍摄的该建筑画面,赞扬了其建筑质量。中铁十局还负责泰国南部的一个机场航站楼,据泰国交通部称,该航站楼本应在1月份完工,但截至3月,完工不足40%
中铁十局曼谷办事处没有回复寻求置评的电子邮件。中国大使馆在Facebook上发表声明,敦促中国企业配合泰国政府的调查。
中铁十局的母公司中国国家铁路集团以修建了中国约4.5万公里高铁线路中的大部分起家。但近年来,随着国内对新项目的需求减弱,该公司及其子公司扩大了业务范围,急于招揽工程。
时机往往与中国政府的优先事项一致。2019年,随着北京寻求在太平洋地区建立更紧密的关系,中铁集团在所罗门群岛购买了一座休眠金矿。那里的工人告诉时报,安全问题经常被忽视。
在此过程中,该公司的债务飙升。其2024年年报显示,该公司的总负债为1.74万亿元,几乎是五年前8107亿元的两倍。
基建巨头中铁集团债务飙升,急需新项目。
基建巨头中铁集团债务飙升,急需新项目。 Reuters
加州大学圣地亚哥分校研究中国政治和金融的专家史宗瀚说,当一家公司背负如此沉重的债务负担时,“产生现金流来偿还债务的压力可能相当大”。
去年11月,塞尔维亚一座火车站顶篷倒塌,造成15人死亡,中铁集团的另一家子公司与涉嫌腐败的官员一起受到指责。
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在曼谷,施工进度落后于计划,这给该公司带来了更大的压力。尽管该建筑于2020年开工,但完工还不到一半。泰国反腐败组织主席玛纳·尼米蒙空表示,由于项目延误,政府曾威胁要在2024年取消该项目。
更令人起疑的是,四名自称分包商的中国公民在地震发生第二天被监控摄像拍到从废墟后面的一间办公室里移走文件。他们告诉当局那是为了保险索赔。警察没收了文件;这些人被拘留,然后被释放。
周三,救援人员从废墟中找到一具遇难者遗体。
周三,救援人员从废墟中找到一具遇难者遗体。 Wason Wanichakorn/Associated Press
强度不够的材料
曼谷的结构工程师很难理解这座建筑为什么一下子就坍塌了。
参与起草曼谷抗震标准的泰国地震研究中心主任彭侬·瓦尼猜说,这座建筑本来应该能够屹立不倒。他说,地震发生后,在曼谷检测到的地面运动,“大约是我们在设计典型建筑时考虑水平的三分之一到二分之一。”
泰国基本上遵循美国的防震模式,即摩天大楼以钢筋混凝土为核心。核心通常是位于建筑物中心的矩形竖井,楼层和垂直支撑柱向外延伸。
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彭侬说,在倒塌的那座建筑中,设计师把核心设置在偏离中心的位置。他还说,他看过设计图。其他类似设计的建筑没有倒塌。但他说,由于地震距离较远,地震波之间的间隔时间较长,而且曼谷的大部分地区都建在软土上,建筑物可能既摇晃又扭曲,从而加剧了危险。
彭侬和其他几位工程师强调,现在确定坍塌的原因还为时过早。钢材质量、设计、工作标准和土壤都可能发挥作用。但他说,迄今为止,从工作人员和官员那里收集到的证据,加上地震的视频片段,都表明,较低楼层的核心和支撑柱发生了坍塌。
“它似乎是从底部而不是顶部倒塌的,”他说。
2024年12月拍摄的卫星图像显示了曼谷建筑的施工情况。
2024年12月拍摄的卫星图像显示了曼谷建筑的施工情况。 Planet Labs, via Reuters
其他专家一致认为,相比从顶部倒塌,大楼更像是从底部倒塌,这与在最后一刻逃生的工人的说法相符。
当时在倒塌大楼三楼至十楼作业的六名员工表示,这个项目经常显得不安全。他们报告的一些问题相对较小:许多工人穿运动鞋,而不是钢头靴子;在较高楼层使用安全带的要求被忽视。
三名在较低楼层工作过的工人说,这栋楼的柱子比他们在其他高层建筑工地看到的要细。在八楼工作的阿皮察·柴劳说,他的主管非常担心,亲自测量了这些柱子,“他说这些柱子不对。”
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“我当时没有想到这一点,但现在看来,”他还说,“和我参与过的其他项目相比,那块地板看起来并不结实。”
两名因担心遭到雇主报复而拒绝透露姓名的分包商表示,中国管理人员经常无视泰国同行的建议,采用低报价合同,导致材料质量下降。
关于中铁集团在塞尔维亚子公司的报道也凸显了质量控制的缺失。在那里,一名曾参与发生致命坍塌事故的车站工程的工程师说,负责该事故的中国财团雇佣的一名承包商无视设计规范,在顶棚上额外添加了混凝土。
11月,塞尔维亚一座火车站顶篷倒塌,造成15人死亡,工人们检查顶篷。
11月,塞尔维亚一座火车站顶篷倒塌,造成15人死亡,工人们检查顶篷。 Darko Vojinovic/Associated Press
泰国工业标准研究所所长农提猜·利基塔蓬表示,曼谷大楼的问题包括使用的钢材强度太弱。
从现场收集的两种规格的钢筋样品在质量、化学性质和抗压能力方面未通过泰国钢铁协会的测试。农提猜说,其他样品符合要求标准,但有问题的金属是由同一家中国公司生产的:新科原钢铁有限公司,该公司在泰国罗勇府有一家工厂。
泰国当局在去年12月关闭了这家工厂,理由是发生一起涉及天然气泄漏的事故后存在安全风险。他们查获了2400多吨钢材,此前的测试发现,这些钢筋的肋高和硼含量不符合批准的标准,破坏了与混凝土的粘合力,削弱了混凝土的强度。
政府还要求该公司高管召回已售出的所有钢材。目前尚不清楚他们是否已执行。
记者无法通过该公司网站上列出的电话号码联系到该公司置评。
以国有企业为首的中国建筑网络在曼谷最近的建筑热潮中发挥了重要作用,为其增添了公寓、铁路和其他项目。泰国政府与中国的关系日益密切,中国是泰国最大的投资国。上个月,应北京要求,泰国将40名寻求庇护的维吾尔人遣返回中国,这引起了联合国官员和活动人士的强烈谴责,他们长期以来一直警告称,这些人回国后可能会面临酷刑和监禁。
在中国国内,北京试图审查有关这栋倒塌建筑的报道和讨论。调查新闻媒体财新网一篇关于该大楼结构的解释性报道,以及官方新闻机构新华社的一篇关于大楼倒塌造成人员伤亡的短文在发表后不久就被删除了。
但在泰国,对高层建筑的恐惧现在已经很普遍,愤怒情绪也随之高涨。
朱拉隆功大学政治学和国际关系教授提提南·蓬苏迪拉克说,“泰国公众对中国企业的存在和政府交易的批评日益强烈。”
“中国打造的建筑倒塌,”他还说,“可能会强化这种批评的观点。”

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美国对台征32%关税 台湾行政院︰强烈不合理 将与美严正交涉

By: 陈美华
3 April 2025 at 12:34

美国总统特朗普2日宣布对来自台湾的进口商品征收32%的关税。台湾行政院3日发布新闻稿表示,行政院认为强烈不合理,并高度遗憾,后续将与美国严正交涉。

台湾行政院发言人李慧芝表示,这项税率的提出,并未实际反映台美经贸实际状况,对台湾并不公平,并有三大不合理之处。

第一项不合理是,这次美国对等关税的计算方式、科学依据及国际贸易理论基础不明,无法反映台美贸易结构高度互补性以及实质贸易关系,这是第一项不合理。

第二项不合理是,近年台湾对美国出口及贸易顺差大幅增加,主要是反映近年美国客户对半导体及关联产品,尤其是AI产品激增之需求,以及川普总统第一任任期对中国加征关税及科技管制等国安政策,台商供应链转移回流台湾,美国对台湾资通讯产品需求增加,此反映台湾对美国经济及国安的巨大贡献,却反被课征高额关税。

第三是,美国指出低价违规转运“洗产地”也是计算税率原因,美国长期关切中国低价违规转运,这次与中国贸易密切国家,尤其有违规转运问题的国家取得的税率也更高,例如越南46%、柬埔寨49%、泰国36%,但台湾已有相关措施,积极查缉违规转运,台湾财政部以三道防线防堵,包括事前预防、事中严查、事后严罚。

李慧芝表示,行政院长卓荣泰稍早已指示经贸谈判办公室立即盘点此高额关税不合理及对台湾不公平之处,向美国贸易代表提出严正交涉,要求说明,并持续与美方沟通。

© REUTERS

美国总统特朗普2日宣布对来自台湾的进口商品征收32%的关税。图为台北市一家电脑相关产品商店。

美国宣布对中国商品征34%关税 中国商务部:坚决反对

美国总统特朗普于本周三(4月2日)在白宫玫瑰园宣布,美国将对进口商品大规模加征关税,称之为“全球对等关税”计划。其中,对中国商品征收34%的关税,对欧盟商品征收20%,对台湾、越南等多个国家和地区的商品也设立不同税率。中国商务部就此表示坚决反对,敦促美方立即取消单边关稅措施,与贸易伙伴通过平等对话妥善解决分歧。

特朗普总统在白宫发表讲话时表示,美国长期以来在全球贸易体系中处于“被掠夺”地位,他强调,这项关税计划旨在重振美国工业,并终结对美国“不公平”的贸易待遇。特朗普说,这项对等关税将为美国带来经济独立,并称其为“美国的解放日”。

3日,中国商务部表示坚决反对美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收对等关税,并将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益,强调贸易战没有赢家。中国商务部发言人表示,美方声称自己在国际贸易中吃了亏,以所谓“对等”为由提高对所有贸易伙伴的关税,这种做法罔顾多年来多边贸易谈判达成的利益平衡结果,也无视美方长期从国际贸易中大量获利的事实。

根据该计划,美国将对不同国家和地区实施差异化关税,其中,中国:34%;欧盟20%;台湾32%;越南46%;瑞士31%;英国和巴西10%;日本、韩国、印度:分别为24%、25%和26%;柬埔寨:49%。此外,特朗普宣布,所有进入美国的商品将设立最低10%的关税标准。如果美国成功征收上述税收,将为美国增加约六万亿美元收入。

广东贸易商:已将订单转到越南 未来几天非常关键

在中国,专做出口美国电子产品的广东贸易商李女士周四接受自由亚洲电台采访时表示,美国的新关税让中国业内人士心急如焚,无所适从,她感叹“一切听天由命”。她说,之前该公司已经调整策略,将订单转到越南:“中国的外贸出口只能采取迂回的方法,在中国接单,货物从东南亚比如在越南出口,在越南有工厂,产地也是越南。但是广东厂商就接不到订单了。”

对于美国加征越南货品关税达46%,李女士认为越南政府会在其它方面向美国妥协,以降低关税,而未来几天非常关键。她也表示:“越南工厂的效率没有广东高,实在没办法货品在中国生产后运往越南,再转运出去(美国)。”

美国买家要求中国出口价扣除关税

不过,美国采购方最近多次向中国供应商要求减价,以弥新关税损失。李女士说,最近一段时间,美国买家要求出口商品价格包含关税:“美国买家要求把定价固定在中国货到美国货仓的价格,入境关税他们不负担,中国出口商的利润被大大削减,这边(入境美国前)的成本就要自己(出口商)承担,为此,你只能提高货物的单价。比如我之前10元卖给你的货,现在要12元卖,你不提高单价,怎么负担成本。”

中国商人张胜其对本台说,美国加征中国货34%关税,这将直接打击中国对美出口商品的价格优势。尤其是电子、机械、纺织、家具等劳动密集型产品,成本大幅上升,导致美方买家减少订单、转向其他国家采购。他说:“这会引发三大连锁效应:一,订单流失,出口企业利润下滑;二,产能缩减,中小企业首当其冲;三,就业受挫,沿海出口导向型地区首受冲击。总结一句话:中国出口的货品对美国依赖度越高,受到的冲击就越重。”

越南关税46%精准打击中国商品转运

关注美中关税战的张胜其认为,美国对越南征收46%统一关税,比中国高出12个百分点。这一政策释放出一个明确信号,就是中国商品“搬到越南”规避关税的路径已被精准识别,而越南作为“出口替身”的角色被全面瓦解,转口避税空间被彻底压缩。他说:“特朗普政府通过“产业链溯源+源头责任追究”的双重机制,成功封堵了中国制造经越南绕道出口美国的通道,有效抵消了中企在越南设厂转出口的价格优势。”

特朗普宣布新关税措施后,国际市场迅速作出反应,美元兑欧元汇率在国际标准时间20:20下跌超过1%。分析人士指出,市场担忧美国经济可能因高额关税而放缓,全球供应链也将受到冲击。

加上已实施的20%关税 中国进口美国商品面临54%关税

美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博社采访时证实,对中国的新关税将加到现有的20%基础税率上,使实际关税税率达到54%。他补充称,各国仍有机会与美国政府就关税问题进行讨论,但特朗普目前可能不会调整政策。

美中关系学者李朗认为,特朗普向各国货品征收关税,其效果就像1930年美国胡佛总统(任期1929-1933任期)签署了《斯姆特-霍利关税法案》的效果一样,改变了地缘政治格局,在远东和欧洲刺激了法西斯主义的上升,促进了二战爆发。他说:“特朗普总统类似关税措施和他的行政命令也会重蹈二十世纪三十年代的霍利关税法案,全球地缘政治的混乱,为全世界带来不可预料的后果。对中国来说,给中国经济增长的引擎外贸,带来直接的影响,也会改变美国和欧洲,美国和亚洲传统盟友之间的关系。”

另一位中国学者吴昊对本台说,特朗普是一位非常强势的美国总统,他做了一辈子生意懂得如何经商:“如何利用手中的杠杆同对手进行激烈的对抗,更能对付中国。中国从来没有遇到过这样一位美国总统。到目前为止,中国的应对都是非常笨拙,如果中国不作出彻底改变,很难逃过这一劫难。”

全球贸易体系面临新挑战

特朗普政府此前曾在2018年和2019年对中国商品征收高额关税,并在其首个总统任期内推行一系列保护主义政策。拜登政府上台后保留了部分对华关税,并在2024年进一步加征新关税。此次特朗普的新一轮关税措施,意味着美国正进一步推向贸易保护主义。

中国商务部发言人表示,美方所谓“对等关税”,不符合国际贸易规则,严重损害相关方的正当合法权益,是典型的单边霸凌做法。

责编:陈美华

© REUTERS

2025年4月2日,美国马里兰州巴尔的摩港,无人机拍摄了美国总统特朗普即将宣布新关税当天船上的货柜。

Auto Tariffs Take Effect, Putting Pressure on New Car Prices

3 April 2025 at 12:14
President Trump says the tariffs will encourage investment in U.S. factories, but analysts say car buyers will have to pay thousands more.

© Saul Martinez for The New York Times

An Audi dealership’s showroom in Miami, on Saturday. Tariffs will be highest on cars manufactured abroad.

Rubio Visits NATO Amid European Alarm Over Trump’s Agenda

3 April 2025 at 12:01
The secretary of state’s trip comes amid an abrupt shift in relations between the United States and Europe after close cooperation during the Biden era.

© Maansi Srivastava for The New York Times

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to press President Trump’s call for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, an approach that alarms many European leaders who overwhelmingly support Kyiv and fear that Mr. Trump will wind up appeasing Russia.

The Country Was Fake. But Its Land Grab in Bolivia Was Real.

Emissaries of the “United States of Kailasa,” led by a fugitive holy man, were deported after negotiating 1,000-year deals with Indigenous groups.

© Manjunath Kiran/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The guru known as Swami Nithyananda after appearing at his bail hearing near Bengaluru, India, in 2012. A fugitive holy man, he has claimed miracle powers.

我在中国看到了世界未来的样子

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我在中国看到了世界未来的样子

托马斯·弗里德曼
Ben Hickey
前几天在上海,我面临一个选择:去看哪个明日世界?是去上海迪士尼乐园看那个美国设计的假明日世界呢,还是去真正的明日世界?后者是由中国的科技巨头华为打造的巨型研发中心,面积大致相当于225个美式橄榄球场那么大。我选择了华为的研发中心。
这个中心引人入胜、令人赞叹,但最终却令人深感不安:它生动地印证了一名在中国工作了几十年的美国商人在北京对我说的话。“以前,人们是去美国看未来是什么样的,”他说。“现在他们来这里看。”
我从未看到过像华为园区这样的地方。它只用了三年多时间就建成了,由104栋设计独特的建筑组成,修剪整齐的草坪覆盖着整个园区,还有迪士尼式的小火车将园区连接起来,园区最多可容纳3.5万名科学家、工程师和其他工作人员的实验室,100家咖啡馆,还有健身中心,以及其他旨在吸引最优秀的中外科技人才的额外待遇。
练秋湖研发中心基本上可以说是华为对美国试图将其扼杀的回应,美国出于国家安全考虑,从2019年开始限制向华为出口包括半导体在内的美国技术。禁令曾给华为造成巨大损失,但在中国政府的帮助下,公司已寻求通过创新来突破封锁。正如韩国《每日经济新闻》去年报道的那样,那一直是华为在做的事情:“尽管受到美国的制裁,华为去年仍推出了使用先进半导体的‘Mate 60’智能手机系列,令世界震惊。”华为后来还推出了全球首款三折叠屏智能手机,并发布了自己的移动操作系统鸿蒙,与苹果和谷歌的操作系统竞争。
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华为还涉足人工智能领域,为从电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车,到能替代人类矿工的自动采矿设备等创造所需的技术。华为高管说,仅2024年一年,公司就在中国各地为电动汽车安装了10万个快速充电桩;相比之下,美国国会已在2021年为建设充电桩网络划拨75亿美元,但截至去年11月,该网络只在12个州建成了214个可使用的充电桩。
把这点用特写镜头展现出来,简直令人恐惧。特朗普总统把注意力放在美国的跨性别运动员能参加哪些比赛上,中国则把注意力放在用人工智能改造本国的工厂上,以便超越我们所有的工厂。特朗普的“解放日”战略是加倍征收关税,同时摧毁推动美国创新的国立科研机构和工作人员。中国的解放战略是,为让本国从特朗普的关税中彻底解放出来而开设更多的研发园区,大力推进人工智能驱动的创新。
中国政府向美国传递的信息是:我们不怕你。你们并非自己以为的那个样子——而我们也不是你们以为的那个我们。
我这么说是什么意思?例证一:《华尔街日报》2024年的报道称,华为“去年的净利润增长了一倍多,标志着这家公司惊人的复苏”,“在国产芯片上运行的”新硬件刺激了这种复苏。例证二:《华尔街日报》最近引用的共和党参议员乔什·霍利提到中国时的说法,他说,“我不认为他们能独立地做出太多的创新,但如果我们继续与他们分享所有这些技术的话,他们就能做出来。”
我们的一些参议员需要多出去看看。作为一名美国的议员,如果你要抨击中国,那请便——我甚至可能陪你来一轮——但至少你要先做好功课。如今,两党中这样做功课的人太少了,却有太多的共识,认为政治上安全的做法是抨击中国政府,高呼几声“美国,美国,美国”,说几句民主国家永远比独裁国家更具创新力的陈词滥调,然后就算了事。
我更喜欢用极其坦率的方式来讨论我们的弱点和优势、中国的弱点和优势,以及为什么我认为在人工智能革命的前夕,将给我们两国带来最美好未来的战略叫作“美国工人与中国的资本和技术合作、美国制造”,藉此来表达我的爱国情怀。
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让我解释一下。
特朗普的异想天开
我认同特朗普在第一个任期内对中国征收关税的做法。那时,中国正在阻止某些美国产品和服务进入本国市场,我们需要以对等的方式回应中国政府的关税政策。例如,中国政府一直在拖延美国信用卡在中国的使用,直到本土的支付平台完全占据了市场主导地位,使中国成了一个无现金社会,几乎所有人都用手机上的移动支付应用来支付所有费用。上周,在北京的一个火车站,当我在一家商店里使用Visa卡付款时被告知,需要先将我的信用卡与一个移动支付应用(例如中国的支付宝或微信支付)绑定,这两款应用合计占据了中国移动支付市场的90%以上。
我甚至同意特朗普加征有针对性新关税的做法,这对堵住中国把墨西哥和越南作为美国关税的后门可能有用,但需要把它作为更大战略的一部分。
我不能同意的是特朗普的异想天开,那就是,只要在一个行业(或整个经济)周围筑起保护墙,然后——瞧!很快,美国的工厂就会蓬勃发展,它们能在美国用相同的成本生产那些产品,而且不会让美国消费者承受任何负担。
首先,这个想法完全忽略了一个事实,那就是,如今几乎每种复杂产品——从汽车到iPhone、再到mRNA疫苗——都是由庞大且复杂的全球制造生态系统制造的。这就是为什么这些产品不断变得越来越好、越来越便宜的原因。当然,如果要保护的是钢铁行业,我们的关税也许很快会对保护这种大宗商品起作用。但如果想保护的是汽车行业,认为只要筑起关税高墙就能做到的话,那你根本不了解汽车的制造过程。让美国汽车公司取代它们依赖的全球供应链,在美国制造所有的零部件,这需要多年时间。就连特斯拉也需要进口某些零部件。
但如果认为中国占据全球制造业主导地位靠的只是欺骗的话,那也错了。欺骗、抄袭,强制性技术转让,中国确实都做过。但中国制造业像今天这样如此强大的原因不仅是它能更便宜地生产东西,也因为它能更便宜、更快、更好、更智能地生产东西,而且正在越来越多地将人工智能融入到产品中来。
Costfoto/NurPhoto, via Getty Images
中国的健身俱乐部模式
中国是如何做到这点的?曾长期担任中国欧盟商会主席的伍德克(Jörg Wuttke)将其称为“中国的健身俱乐部”,其运作方式如下:
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中国从重视STEM(科学、技术、工程、数学的英文首字母缩写)教育开始。中国STEM专业的毕业生每年达350万人,大约相当于美国所有学科的副学士、学士、硕士、博士学位毕业生总数。
有这么多STEM毕业生的国家能在解决任何技术问题上投入比任何其他国家更多的人才。正如《纽约时报》北京分社社长柏凯斯(Keith Bradsher)去年报道的那样:“中国有39所大学开设了培训稀土行业工程师和研究人员的课程。美国和欧洲的大学大都只偶尔开设相关课程。”
虽然许多中国工程学科的毕业生可能达不到麻省理工学院的水平,但中国最优秀的工程师是世界级的,而且数量众多。中国有14亿人口。这意味着如果你在中国是百万分之一的人才,仍有1400个和你一样的人。
同样重要的是,中国的职业学校每年培养出成百上千万名电工、焊工、木匠、机械师以及水管工,因此如果有人想出了一种新产品,想建一个工厂来生产它,工厂很快就能建成。需要一个能把中国国歌倒过来唱的粉色圆按钮吗?中国明天就有人把它生产出来,而且能快速送货上门。中国的高铁已把550多座城市连接起来,这让我们的美铁Acela列车看起来像是旧时的驿马快递(Pony Express)。
中国正在不懈地追求将一切数字化,并用网络连接起来,快速进出酒店房间只需要刷脸。善用技术的乞丐们能把收款二维码打印出来,让路人用手机扫描一下后快速捐款。整个体系都是为速度设计的,包括如果你挑战中共统治的话,因为到处都是监控摄像头,你会很快被逮捕、很快消失。
如果我们不在关税壁垒后面建立类似的健身俱乐部模式的话,我们将陷入通货膨胀和经济停滞。不可能靠关税来实现繁荣,尤其是在人工智能时代即将到来的时候。
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我四个月前也来过中国。在那次和这次访问之间,中国的人工智能创新者展示了他们研发自己的开源人工智能引擎DeepSeek的能力,而且使用了少得多的美国专业芯片。我能感觉到中国科技界的魔力。这种活力是实实在在的。上个月,中国总理李强在全国人民代表大会开幕式上说,中国政府“支持大模型广泛应用”。
一名曾在特斯拉工作过的中国年轻汽车工程师对我说:“所有的人现在都在插入了多少人工智能上竞争。人们现在吹嘘自己插入了多少人工智能。所有的人都很坚定。‘我将使用人工智能,尽管我现在还不知道怎么用。’大家都在为那个东西做准备,就连只是在一条简单生产线上制造冰箱的人也说,‘我必须使用人工智能,因为我老板叫我那样做。’”
凯马特的购物者们请注意:有一个已经拥有像中国那样强大且数字化连接的制造业引擎,然后给这个机器的每个层面注入人工智能后,那就像给生产注入一种兴奋剂,能够优化和加速制造的各个环节,从设计到测试,再到生产。
对于美国议员来说,现在可不是因为害怕被称为“熊猫”拥护者而避免访问中国的时候。
正如亚洲集团的中国区总监、美国人林汉昇在上海和平饭店与我吃早饭时说的那样,“DeepSeek本不该让人感到惊讶。”但他继续说,由于美国所有那些新的“限制海外投资和抑制合作的做法,我们现在对中国的科技发展毫无觉察。中国正在没有美国参与的情况下定义未来的技术标准。这将让我们在未来处于严重的竞争劣势。”
中国政府不想打贸易战
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尽管中国有很多优势,但它并不想与美国打贸易战。中国许多中产阶级现在不开心。十多年来,许多中国人把钱用在买房子上,而不是存入银行,因为银行利息几乎为零。这样做的结果是形成了一个巨大的房地产泡沫。许​​多人曾在泡沫膨胀期受益,后来政府在2020年收紧了银行提供给房地产行业的贷款后,他们又受到了冲击。
所以他们现在不想消费,因为房产收益没有了,而且政府提供的养老金和医保也很微薄。所有人都在存钱,以备不时之需。
正如我的同事柏凯斯前不久报道的那样,经济放缓已让中国政府失去了刺激经济和提供补贴所需的税收收入。“中国政府手上用于帮助出口行业的备用资金减少了,该行业有助于推动经济增长,但可能受到关税的冲击”。
简言之,中国的健身俱乐部模式很厉害,但政府仍需要与特朗普达成一项保护本国出口引擎的贸易协议。
我们也需要这种协议。但特朗普已变成一个如此不可预测的行为者,随时都在改变政策,以至于中国官员严重怀疑是否能与之达成他会遵守的协议。
斯坦福大学的谈判专家米歇尔·盖尔凡德说:“为特朗普辩护的人认为,他的不可预测性让对手不知所措。但非常好的谈判者都知道,信任而非制造混乱,才是得到持久结果的关键。特朗普用“你输我赢”的方式做交易是一场危险的博弈。”她补充道,“如果他继续不计后果地把盟友当作对手,把谈判桌当作战场,美国不仅可能达成糟糕的协议,还可能发现世界上没有人再会与我们做交易了。”
在我看来,唯一的双赢交易是我所说的:美国工人与中国的资本、技术和专家合作,在美国制造。也就是说,我们只是需要把中国在20世纪90年代使用的致富战略搬到美国来。中国那时的做法是:中国工人与美国、欧洲、韩国、日本的技术、资本和伙伴合作,在中国制造。
在中国生活了30年的商业顾问麦健陆(Jim McGregor)向我解释说:为了进入中国市场,美国的大型跨国公司以前会来中国,成立与中国公司合资的企业。现在,外国公司到中国来对中国的跨国公司说:如果你们想进入欧洲市场的话,可以带上你们的技术来跟我成立合资企业。
我们应该采取的做法是,一边对中国的出口产品征收关税,一边欢迎中国公司进入美国市场,通过要求它们把最好的制造创新授权给美国公司,或与美国公司合作成立股权平分的先进制造业合资工厂的方式。但必须要求中国在美国的合资企业稳步增加它们在当地采购的零部件数量,而不是无限期地进口零部件。
当然,这需要用巨大的努力来重建信任,信任在目前的两国关系中几乎完全缺失。这是实现合理双赢贸易的唯一途径。如果做不到这一点,我们将会走向双输的局面。例如,今年3月19日,得州参议院初步通过了一项法案,将禁止以中国、伊朗、朝鲜、俄罗斯为主要居住地的人,以及设在这些国家的组织在得州拥有财产。把中国列入这个名单简直是愚蠢:嘿,让我们禁止一些世界上最伟大的头脑吧,而不是为他们来得州投资创造激励措施和条件。
我们什么时候变得这么害怕?我们又是什么时候对我们所生活的世界如此视而不见的呢?你可以尽全力谴责全球化,但这不会改变我们和我们的命运已被电信、贸易、移民,以及气候变化紧紧联系在一起的事实。
我喜欢《怎么办:为什么我们做任何事情的方式意味着一切》(How: Why How We Do Anything Means Everything)一书的作者多夫·塞德曼对这种情况的描述。他对我说,当涉及美国和中国乃至整个世界时,“相互依存不再是一个选择,而是我们的生存状态。我们唯一的选择是,或是建立健康的相互依存关系,从而共同发展,或是维持不健康的相互依存关系,从而一起衰落。”
但无论我们选择那种做法,我们都要一起面对。
两国的领导人过去都曾知道这点。最终,他们将重新认识到这点。我心中唯一的问题是:等到他们重新认识到这点时,曾经为两国创造了如此多财富的一体化的全球经济还会剩下些什么?

托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报,曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书,包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在TwitterFacebook上关注他。

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World leaders call Trump tariffs 'wrong' and 'unjustified'

3 April 2025 at 09:33
Getty Images/BBC Composite image of Mark Carney, Giorgia Meloni and Anthony AlbaneseGetty Images/BBC
Canada's Mark Carney (L), Italy's Giorgia Meloni (C) and Australia's Anthony Albanese (R) have been reacting to Trump's tariffs on goods coming into the United States

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said US tariffs on European Union imports are "wrong", after US President Donald Trump announced he would begin charging a 20% rate on EU goods.

Meloni is one of the many world leaders reacting to Trump's "liberation day" announcements, which include a universal 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the US from 5 April.

Around 60 countries - including the EU - will be hit with steeper tariffs from 9 April. Some of the highest rates will be levied on smaller countries, such as Lesotho, which has been hit with a 50% levy.

Trump said the measures would "make America rich again", adding that he had been "very kind" in his decisions.

Meloni, a Trump ally, said the EU tariffs would "not suit either party" - referring to the EU and the US - but that she would work towards a deal with the US to "prevent a trade war".

Her Spanish counterpart Pedro Sánchez said Spain would protect its companies and workers and "continue to be committed to an open world."

Irish trade minister Simon Harris said he was ready to negotiate with the US, calling it the "best way forward", while Taoiseach Micheál Martin said Trump's decision was "deeply regrettable" and benefitted "no-one".

Outside of the EU, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Americans would end up paying the biggest price for what he called "unjustified tariffs", but said his government would not impose reciprocal measures.

"We will not join a race to the bottom that leads to higher prices and slower growth", he added.

Latin America's biggest economy, Brazil, approved a law in congress on Wednesday - the Economic Reciprocity Law - to counter the 10% tariff imposed by Trump. There was no immediate reaction from the president, but last week Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his country "cannot stand still" in face of the tariffs.

Shortly after Trump's announcement, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries not to "retaliate" and "sit back, take it in".

"Because if you retaliate, there will be escalation", he told Fox News.

Watch: Key moments in Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement

Noticeably, the US's two biggest trade partners, Canada and Mexico, were not mentioned in Wednesday's announcements.

The White House said it would deal with both countries according to previous executive orders, which imposed 25% tariffs on the two nations as part of efforts to address fentanyl and border issues.

Regardless, Canada will still be impacted by the tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney said. Measures such as the 25% tariff on automobiles starting at midnight on Thursday would "directly affect millions of Canadians", he added.

He vowed to "fight these tariffs with counter measures", adding that the US levies would "fundamentally change the global trading system."

Netanyahu Arrives in Hungary, Finding a Rare Welcome in Europe

3 April 2025 at 11:27
The visit comes as the Israeli prime minister faces an arrest warrant against him by the International Criminal Court.

© Pool photo by Yair Sagi

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

South Korean Actress’s Suicide Spurs Scrutiny of Ex-Boyfriend

3 April 2025 at 11:15
The death of the actress Kim Sae-ron has plunged her former boyfriend, the superstar actor Kim Soo-hyun, into the biggest crisis of his career.

© Soo-Hyeon Kim/Reuters

South Korean actor Kim Soo-hyun gave a tearful news conference on Monday to respond to the controversy over his relationship with actress Kim Sae-ron, who was found dead in February.

Assisted dying: California man invites BBC to witness his death as Parliament debates new law

3 April 2025 at 07:14
BBC A man sits in a reclining chair in shorts and T-shirt in his living room alongside his daughter, son and wife.BBC
This is the last picture of Wayne with his wife Stella (right) and children Emily and Ashley (left), taken on the day of his death

It's 10am, and in a little over two hours, Wayne Hawkins will be dead.

The sun is shining on the bungalow where the 80-year-old lives in San Diego, California with his wife of more than five decades, Stella.

I knock on the door and meet his children - Emily, 48, and Ashley, 44 - who have spent the last two weeks at their father's side.

Wayne sits in a reclining chair where he spends most of his days. Terminally ill, he is too weak to leave the house.

He has invited BBC News to witness his death under California's assisted dying laws - because if MPs in London vote to legalise the practice in England and Wales, it will allow some terminally ill people here to die in a similar way.

Half an hour after arriving at Wayne's house, I watch him swallow three anti-nausea tablets, designed to minimise the risk of him vomiting the lethal medication he plans to take shortly.

Are you sure this day is your last, I ask him? "I'm all in," he replies. "I was determined and decided weeks ago - I've had no trepidation since then."

His family ask for one last photo, which I take. As usual, Stella and Wayne are holding hands.

Shortly after, Dr Donnie Moore arrives. He has got to know the family over the past few weeks, visiting them on several occasions alongside running his own end-of-life clinic. Under California law, he is what is known as the attending physician who must confirm, in addition to a second doctor, that Wayne is eligible for aid in dying.

Dr Moore's role is part physician, part counsellor in this situation, one he has been in for 150 assisted deaths before.

On a top shelf in Wayne's bedroom sits a brown glass bottle containing a fine white powder - a mixture of five drugs, sedatives and painkillers, delivered to the house the previous day. The dosage of drugs inside is hundreds of times higher than those used in regular healthcare and is "guaranteed" to be fatal, Dr Moore explains. Unlike California, the proposed law at Westminster would require a doctor to bring any such medication with them.

A man in a grey jacket and blue shirt with a stethoscope smiles in a living room.
Dr Donnie Moore has been involved in dozens of assisted deaths

When Wayne signals he is ready, the doctor mixes the meds with cherry and pineapple juice to soften the bitter taste - and he hands this pink liquid to Wayne.

No one, not even the doctor, knows how long it will take him to die after taking the lethal drugs. Dr Moore explains to me that, in his experience, death usually occurs between 30 minutes and two hours of ingestion, but on one occasion it took 17 hours.

This is the story of how and why Wayne chose to die. And why others have decided not to follow the same course.

We first met the couple a few weeks earlier, when Wayne explained why he was going ahead with the decision to have an assisted death - a controversial measure in other parts of the world.

"Some days the pain is almost more than I can handle," he said. "I just don't see any merit to dying slow and painfully, hooked up with stuff - intubation, feeding tubes," he told me. "I want none of it."

Wayne said he had watched two relatives die "miserable", "heinous" deaths from heart failure.

"I hate hospitals, they are miserable. I will die in the street first."

Wayne met Stella in 1969; the couple married four years later. He told us it was something of an arranged marriage, as his mother kept inviting Stella for dinner until eventually the penny dropped that he should take her out.

They lived for many years in Arcata, northern California, surrounded by sweeping forests of redwood trees, where Wayne worked as a landscape architect, while Stella was a primary school teacher. They spent their holidays hiking and camping with their children.

Now Wayne is terminally ill with heart failure, which has already brought him close to death. He has myriad other health issues including prostate cancer, liver failure and sepsis which brings him serious spinal pain.

He has less than six months to live, qualifying him for an assisted death in California. His request to die has been approved by two doctors and the lethal medication is self-administered.

It was during our first meeting that he asked the BBC to return to observe his final day, saying he wanted terminally ill adults in the UK to have the same right to an assisted death as him.

Wayne sits in a reclining chair surrounded by his family on the day of his death.
Wayne sits surrounded by his family on the day of his death

"Britain is pretty good with freedoms and this is just another one," he said. "People should be able to choose the time of their death as long as they meet the rules like six months to live or less."

Stella, 78, supports his decision. "I've known him for over 50 years. He's a very independent man. He's always known what he wants to do and he's always fixed things. That's how he's operating now. If this is his choice, I definitely agree, and I've seen him really suffer with the illness he's got. I don't want that for him."

Wayne would also qualify under the proposed new assisted dying law in England and Wales. The measures return to the House of Commons later this month, when all MPs will have a chance to debate and vote on changes to the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill.

The proposed legislation, tabled by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, says that anyone who wants to end their life must have the mental capacity to make the choice, that they must be expected to die within six months, and must make two separate declarations - witnessed and signed - about their wish to die. They must satisfy two independent doctors that they are eligible.

MPs in Westminster voted in favour of assisted dying in principle last November but remain bitterly divided on the issue. If they ultimately decide to approve the bill, it could become law within the next year and come into practice within the next four years.

There are also divisions here in California, where assisted dying was introduced in 2016. Michelle and Mike Carter, both 72 and married for 43 years, are each being treated for cancer - Mike has prostate cancer that has spread to his lymph nodes, and Michelle's advanced terminal ovarian cancer has spread throughout much of her body.

"I held my mother's hand when she passed; I held my father's hand when he passed," Michelle told me. "I believe there's freedom of choice however for me, I choose palliative care… I have God and I have good medicine."

A woman in a cream top sits on a sofa smiling in front of windows.
Michelle Carter is placing her trust in medicine

Michelle's physician, palliative care specialist Dr Vincent Nguyen, argued that assisted dying laws in the US state lead to "silent coercion" whereby vulnerable people think their only option is to die. "Instead of ending people's lives, let's put programmes together to care for people," he said. "Let them know that they're loved, they're wanted and they're worthy."

He said the law meant that doctors have gone from being seen as healers to killers, while the message from the healthcare system was that "you are better off dead, because you're expensive and your death is cheaper for us".

Some disability campaigners say assisted dying makes them feel unsafe. Ingrid Tischer, who has muscular dystrophy and chronic respiratory failure, told me: "The message that it sends to people with disabilities in California is that you deserve suicide assistance rather than suicide prevention when you voice a desire to end your life.

"What does that say about who we are as a culture?"

Critics often say that once assisted dying is legalised, over time the safeguards around such laws get eroded as part of a "slippery slope" towards more relaxed criteria. In California, there was initially a mandatory 15-day cooling off period between patients making a first and second request for aid in dying. That has been reduced to 48 hours because many patients were dying during the waiting period. It's thought the approval process envisaged in Westminster would take around a month.

'Goodbye,' Wayne tells his family

Outside Wayne's house on the morning of his death, a solitary bird begins its loud and elaborate song. "There's that mockingbird out there," Wayne tells Stella, as smiles flicker across their faces.

Wayne hates the bird because it keeps him awake at night, Stella jokes, hand in hand with him to one side of his chair. Emily and Ashley are next to Stella.

Dr Moore, seated on Wayne's other side, hands him the pink liquid which he swallows without hesitation. "Goodnight," he says to his family - a typical touch of humour from a man who told us he was determined to die on his terms. It's 11.47am.

After two minutes, Wayne says he is getting sleepy. Dr Moore asks him to imagine he is walking in a vast sea of flowers with a soft breeze on his skin, which seems appropriate for a patient who has spent much of his life among nature.

After three minutes Wayne enters a deep sleep from which he will never wake. On a few occasions he lifts his head to take a deep breath without opening his eyes, at one point beginning to snore softly.

Dr Moore tells the family this is "the deepest sleep imaginable" and reassures Emily there is no chance her dad will wake up and ask, "did it work?"

"Oh that would be just like him," Stella says with a laugh.

A man sits on a reclining chair surrounded by three relatives and a doctor 9n his house.
Wayne and his family shortly before his death

The family start to reminisce about hiking holidays and driving around in a large van they converted to become a camper. "Me and dad insulated it and put a bed in the back," says Ashley.

On the walls are photos of Emily and Ashley as small children next to huge carved Halloween pumpkins.

Dr Moore is still stroking Wayne's hand and occasionally checking his pulse. For a man who Emily says was "always walking, always outdoors, always active", these are the final moments of life's journey, spent surrounded by those who mean most to him.

At 12.22pm Dr Moore says, "I think he's passed… He's at peace now."

Outside, the mockingbird has fallen silent. "No more pain," says Stella, embracing her children in her arms.

I step outside to give the family some space, and reflect on what we have just seen and filmed.

I have been covering medical ethics for the BBC for more than 20 years. In 2006, I was present just outside an apartment in Zurich where Dr Anne Turner, a retired doctor, died with the help of the group Dignitas - but California was the first time I had been an eyewitness to an assisted death.

This isn't just a story about one man's death in California - it's about what could become a reality here in England and Wales for those who qualify for an assisted death and choose to die this way.

Whether you're for or against the proposed new Westminster law, the death of a loved one is a deeply personal and emotional time for a family. Each death leaves an imprint, as will Wayne's.

Additional reporting by Josh Falcon

Marine Le Pen's ban has outraged France's far right - and they may well seek revenge

3 April 2025 at 07:06
BBC A black and white silhouette of Marine Le Pen, head onlyBBC

Outrage is a precious political currency and France's far right has spent this week attempting, furiously and predictably, to capitalise on the perceived injustice of a court's decision to block its totemic leader, Marine Le Pen, from standing in the 2027 presidential election.

The airwaves have been throbbing with indignation.

"Be outraged," said one of Le Pen's key deputies, on French television, in case anyone was in doubt as to what their reaction should be.

But it remains unclear whether Le Pen's tough sentence will broaden support for her party, the National Rally (RN), or lead to greater fragmentation of the French far right. Either way, it has created a feverish mood among the nation's politicians.

Le Pen and her allies have boldly declared that France's institutions, and democracy itself, have been "executed", are "dead", or "violated". The country's justice system has been turned into a "political" hit squad, shamelessly intervening in a nation's right to choose its own leaders. And Marine Le Pen has been widely portrayed, with something close to certainty, as France's president-in-waiting, as the nation's most popular politician, cruelly robbed of her near-inevitable procession towards the Élysée Palace.

"The system has released a nuclear bomb, and if it is using such a powerful weapon against us, it is obviously because we are about to win the elections," Le Pen fumed at a news conference, comparing herself to the poisoned, imprisoned, and now dead Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny.

As France assesses its latest political tremors, an uneven pushback has begun.

No clear frontrunner for president

Nervous about the impact the judgement may have for the country's frail coalition government, the Prime Minister François Bayrou has admitted to feeling "troubled" by Le Pen's sentence and worried about a "shock" to public opinion.

But other centrist politicians have taken a firmer line, stressing the need for a clear gap between the justice system and politics.

Getty Images Le Pen and Bardella wave their arms at a rally while people wave French flags behind themGetty Images
An opinion poll carried out a day before the court decision predicted that Le Pen would secure up to 37% of votes in the 2027 presidential election

An early opinion poll appears to show the French public taking a calm line, bursting – or at least deflating – the RN's bubble of outrage. The poll, produced within hours of the court's ruling, showed less than a third of the country – 31% - felt the decision to block Le Pen, immediately, from running for public office, was unjust.

Tellingly, that figure was less than the 37% of French people who recently expressed an interest in voting for her as president.

In other words, plenty of people who like her as a politician also think it reasonable that her crimes should disqualify her from running for office.

And remember, French presidential elections are still two years away – an eternity in the current political climate.

Emmanuel Macron is not entitled to stand for another term and no clear alternative to Le Pen, from the left or centre of French politics, has yet emerged. Le Pen's share of the vote has consistently risen during her previous three failed bids for the top job but it is premature, at best, to consider her a shoo-in for 2027.

Le Pen's crime and punishment

Anyone who followed the court case against her and her party colleagues in an impartial fashion would struggle to conclude that the verdicts in Le Pen's case were unreasonable.

The evidence of a massive and coordinated project to defraud the European Parliament and its associated taxpayers included jaw-droppingly incriminating emails suggesting officials knew exactly what they were doing, and the illegality of their actions.

That the corruption was for the party, not for personal gain, surely changes nothing. Corruption is corruption. Besides, other parties have also been found guilty of similar offences.

Getty Images Head-and-shoulders image of Marine Le Pen witting in a news studioGetty Images
On 31 March, Marine Le Pen was banned with immediate effect from standing for office for five years

Regarding the punishments handed out by the court, here it seems fair to argue that Le Pen and her party made a strategic blunder in their approach to the case.

Had they acknowledged the facts, and their errors, and cooperated in facilitating a swift trial rather than helping to drag the process out for almost a decade, the judges – as they've now made clear – might have taken their attitude towards the case into consideration when considering punishments.

"Neither during the investigation nor at the trial did [Le Pen] show any awareness of the need for probity as an elected official, nor of the ensuing responsibilities," wrote the judges in a document explaining, often indignantly, why they'd delivered such a tough sentence.

They berated Le Pen for seeking to delay or avoid justice with "a defence system that disregards the uncovering of the truth".

Hypocrisy among the elite

It is worth noting, here, the wider hypocrisy demonstrated by elites across France's political spectrum who have recently been muttering their sympathy for Le Pen. It is nine years since MPs voted to toughen up the laws on corruption, introducing the very sanctions - on immediately banning criminals from public office - that were used by the judges in this case.

That toughening was welcomed by the public as an antidote to a judicial system stymied by an indulgent culture of successive appeals that enabled – and sometimes still enables - politicians to dodge accountability for decades.

Le Pen is now being gleefully taunted by her critics online with the many past instances in which she has called for stricter laws on corruption.

"When are we going to learn the lessons and effectively introduce lifelong ineligibility for those who have been convicted of acts committed while in office or during their term of office?" she asked in 2013.

Reasonable people can reasonably disagree about the court's sentencing decisions in Le Pen's case. But the notion – enthusiastically endorsed by populist and hard-right politicians across Europe and the US – that she is a victim of a conspiratorial political plot has clearly not convinced most French people.

At least not yet.

Future of France's far right

So where does this verdict – clearly a seismic moment in French politics – leave the National Rally and the wider far-right movement?

The short answer is that no one knows. There are so many variables involved – from the fate of Le Pen's fast-tracked appeal, to the RN's succession strategy, to the state of France's precarious finances, to the broader political climate and the see-sawing appetite for populism both within France and globally – that predictions are an even more dubious game than usual.

The most immediate question – given the slow pace of the legal appeal that Le Pen has vowed to initiate – is whether the RN will seek prompt revenge in parliament by attempting to bring down the fragile coalition government of François Bayrou.

Getty Images Marine Le Pen, left, next to her father Jean-Marie, rightGetty Images
Marine Le Pen followed her father Jean-Marie (right) to take over the far-right National Rally party (formerly the National Front)

That could lead to new parliamentary elections this summer and the possibility that the RN could capitalise on its victim status to increase its lead in parliament and perhaps, even, to push the country towards a deadlock in which President Macron might – yet another "might" – feel obliged to step down.

One person who will now be facing extra scrutiny is Le Pen's almost but not quite anointed successor, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, who could be drafted in as a replacement presidential candidate if Le Pen's own "narrow path" towards the Élysée remains blocked on appeal.

If social-media-savvy Bardella's popularity among French youth is any indication of his prospects, he could well sweep to victory in 2027. He has found a way to tap into the frustrations of people angry about falling living standards and concerns about immigration.

Getty Images Le Pen on the left and Bardella on the rightGetty Images
Jordan Bardella is seen as Le Pen's successor, using social media to attract support among French youth

But turning youthful support into actual votes is not always straightforward, and other, more experienced and mainstream figures on the right may well be sensing an opportunity too.

The Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, is widely seen to be emerging as a potential contender. Some even wonder if the provocative television personality, Cyril Hanouna, might become a serious political force on the right of French politics.

Meanwhile, Bardella, like the RN in general, has been on a highly disciplined mission to detoxify the party's once overtly racist and antisemitic brand. In February, for instance, he abandoned plans to speak at America's far-right CPAC event after Donald Trump's former advisor Steve Bannon made a Nazi salute.

But this week's events have revealed that the RN is enthusiastically committed to the distinctly Trump-ian and populist strategy of blaming its misfortunes on a "swamp" of unelected officials. Bardella, meanwhile, complained about the recent closure of two right-wing media channels alongside his party's own legal struggles.

"There is an extremely serious drift today that does not reflect the idea we have of French democracy," he said.

It's the sort of language that goes down well with the RN's core constituency, but its broader appeal may be limited in a country that remains, in many ways, deeply attached to its institutions.

To frame it another way, will French voters be more motivated by the belief that Le Pen was unfairly punished, or by concern that the judges involved have since been the victims of death threats and other insults?

Getty Images Emmanuel Macron with his head bowedGetty Images
Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022 - he is not entitled to stand for another term and there no clear alternative to Le Pen

As for Marine Le Pen, she has vowed that she will not be sidelined. But her destiny is not entirely in her own hands now. At the age of 56 she has become a familiar figure, fiery at times, but personally approachable, warm and, in political terms, profoundly influential and disciplined. So what next for her?

France has had one Le Pen or other (Marine's father, Jean-Marie ran four times) on their presidential ballot paper since 1988. Always unsuccessfully.

History may well look back on this week as the moment Marine Le Pen's fate was sealed, in one of three ways: as France's first female and first far-right president, swept to power on a tide of outrage. As the four-time loser of a French presidential election, finally denied power by the taint of corruption. Or as someone whose soaring political career was brought to an early and shuddering halt by her own miscalculations over a serious embezzlement scandal.

BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.

UK charities launch Myanmar Earthquake Appeal

3 April 2025 at 09:21
AFP People stand past the debris of a collapsed building in Mandalay AFP

The UK's Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) is launching an appeal to help the thousands of people injured and displaced as a result of last week's powerful earthquake which struck Myanmar and the wider region.

Made up of 15 UK aid agencies, including the British Red Cross, Oxfam and Save the Children, the DEC is asking the British public for donations before the monsoon season arrives in two months.

More than 2,800 people have died and more than 4,500 have been injured, according to the leaders of Myanmar's military government, with figures expected to rise.

The charities say shelter, medicine, food, water and cash support is "urgently needed".

Baroness Chapman, minister for development, said public donations to the DEC appeal would be matched pound-for-pound by the government, up to the value of £5m.

DEC's chief executive Saleh Saeed said the situation was "ever more critical."

"Funds are urgently needed to help families access life-saving humanitarian aid following this catastrophe," he said.

Multiple international aid agencies and foreign governments have dispatched personnel and supplies to quake-hit regions.

Myanmar was already facing a severe humanitarian crisis before the 7.7 magnitude earthquake due to the ongoing civil war there, with the DEC estimating a third of the population is in need of aid.

The country has been gripped by violence amid the conflict between the junta - which seized power in a 2021 coup - and ethnic militias and resistance forces across the country.

On Wednesday, Myanmar's military government announced a temporary ceasefire lasting until 22 April, saying it was aimed at expediting relief and reconstruction efforts.

Rebel groups had already unilaterally declared a ceasefire to support relief efforts earlier this week, but the military had refused to do the same until Wednesday's announcement.

Aid workers have come under attack in Myanmar. On Tuesday night, the army opened fire at a Chinese Red Cross convoy carrying earthquake relief supplies.

Nine of the charity's vehicles came under attack. The UN and some charities have accused the military junta of blocking access.

Reuters Several man in blue t-shirts load an Indian naval ship with white and green sacks of disaster relief material. Reuters
Aid is being sent from across the globe to help disaster-stricken communities
Arete/DEC An aid worker sits on a mound of rubble in Mandalay, Myanmar.Arete/DEC
Mandalay city was near the epicentre of the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck on Friday

The US Geological Survey's modelling estimates Myanmar's death toll could exceed 10,000, while the cost in damages to infrastructure could surpass the country's annual economic output.

Roads, water services and buildings including hospitals have been destroyed, especially in Mandalay, the hard-hit city near the epicentre.

In Thailand, at least 21 people have died.

The Red Cross has also issued an urgent appeal for $100m (£77m), while the UN is seeking $8m in donations for its response.

"People urgently require medical care, clean drinking water, tents, food, and other basic necessities," the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said on Monday.

The DEC brings together 15 leading UK aid charities to provide and deliver aid to ensure successful appeals.

The appeal will be broadcast on the BBC and other media outlets throughout Thursday.

Councils in England putting homeless children at risk, MPs find

3 April 2025 at 08:48
BBC Sam Revell, a mother who received a payout after the Local Government and Social Care Ombudsman upheld her complaint about temporary accommodationBBC
Sam Revell said she was placed in "horrendous" temporary accommodation

Councils are exposing homeless children to serious health and safeguarding risks by housing them in unsuitable temporary accommodation, an inquiry by MPs has found.

MPs said a "crisis in temporary accommodation" in England had left a record 164,000 children without a permanent home.

The inquiry concluded many children were living in "appalling conditions" and suffering significant impacts to their health and education as a result.

In a report, the MPs urged ministers to deliver more affordable homes and take urgent action to support families living in temporary accommodation.

In England, some local authorities have a legal duty to support the homeless, including providing temporary accommodation.

Temporary accommodation is meant as a short-term solution for those experiencing or at risk of homelessness and can include hostels and rooms in shared houses.

The inquiry was launched last year by MPs on the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee, which condemned the state of some temporary accommodation as "utterly shameful".

The inquiry heard evidence of "egregious hazards" to children, including serious damp, mould, and mice infestations, and families living in temporary housing for years.

Florence Eshalomi, the Labour MP who leads the committee, told the BBC evidence showing the deaths of 74 children had been linked to temporary housing "should shock all of us".

"That should send alarm bells ringing," she said. "What was most shocking as well was the fact that over 58 of those young children were under the age of one. Where have we gone wrong?"

Eshalomi said when she was a child, she once lived in temporary accommodation filled with damp.

She said: "I think about what I went through as a young person and it pains me to think that many years later now as an MP, I see that still happening in the constituency I represent."

In its report, the committee set out recommendations, including requiring councils to check housing is safe to be used as temporary accommodation.

Another key recommendation was the proposal to give more powers to the Local Government and Social Care Ombudsman, which investigates complaints about the treatment of people placed in temporary housing.

In response to the inquiry, a government spokesperson said the findings were shocking, adding that the government was taking "urgent action to fix the broken system we inherited, investing nearly £1bn in homelessness services this year to help families trapped in temporary accommodation".

They said: "Alongside this, we are developing a long-term strategy to tackle homelessness, driving up housing standards and delivering the biggest boost in social and affordable homes in a generation."

Watch: Sam says she was placed 33 miles away from her child's school

In extreme cases, the ombudsman can ask councils to compensate people whose complaints are upheld - and data shared with the BBC shows a marked rise in those payouts.

Last year, the ombudsman upheld 176 complaints against councils and recommended 144 payouts in those cases.

The number of payouts last year - some worth thousands of pounds - was greater than the 121 in 2022-23 and the 73 in 2021-22.

Sam Revell, a mum of three, received a payout of about £2,000 in 2023.

The ombudsman found multiple faults in the way Bromley Council in London handled her request for temporary accommodation in 2022.

Sam said she ended up homeless after separating from her partner and approached the council for help.

"I couldn't get hold of an actual person to speak to," Sam said. "All my emails just went unanswered."

At one stage, she and her children slept overnight in her car when they had nowhere else to go.

"I think the one thing as a parent, you just put a roof over your children's head," Sam said.

"That for me, is just basic, and I couldn't even do that. I got a good job. I was in full-time employment, and the kids were in school and everything."

The ombudsman said the council eventually placed them in unsuitable interim accommodation, which was too far from her children's school and her workplace.

"It was like 33 miles in total and it took us sort of an hour each way," Sam said.

Sam said the council did not take account of her child's need to continue attending the primary school where she received specialist support.

She said the flat itself was "horrendous" and claimed neighbours were regularly taking drugs near her front door.

The ombudsman said the council did not respond properly to Sam's reports about delays in getting repairs done in this accommodation and incidents when she was threatened and physically assaulted by neighbours.

Sam and her children were allocated alternative accommodation in September 2022 but she had to wait three months before she could move in.

She accused the council of leaving her "in such a vulnerable situation that it was just so dangerous" and said the experience still affects her children to this day.

A council spokesperson said a national housing shortage meant offering homeless residents temporary accommodation they "would have chosen for themselves".

The spokesperson said: "We accept that mistakes were made in this case and extend our apology to this resident, recognising the continued understandable disquiet this experience has had.

"It is important to note Bromley Council co-operated fully with the ombudsman's investigation, which was two years ago, and agreed with the proposed remedial action, which has been fully implemented and lessons have been learnt."

Sam Revell and her three children at Keston Fishponds in Bromley
Sam said the temporary housing she lived in was "dangerous" for her children

Cameron Black, a spokesman for the ombudsman, said the payouts recognise "the gravity of the injustice that's caused to the individuals in these cases".

He said there was a growing but small number of councils who are resistant to the ombudsman's findings and recommendations.

He said the ombudsman is calling for more powers to monitor whether councils are meeting their legal duties to support homeless people.

The rise in payouts comes as councils struggle to cover the costs of their legal duty to support the growing number of homeless families.

Local authorities spent around £2.29bn on temporary accommodation in 2023/24.

The Local Government Association said the scale of the challenge facing councils on temporary accommodation and homelessness "are immense".

"Government needs to use the upcoming Spending Review to ensure that councils are sufficiently resourced, including by urgently increasing the temporary accommodation subsidy," said Adam Hug, housing spokesperson for the LGA.

Tornadoes Reported in South and Midwest Amid Powerful Storm System

3 April 2025 at 11:59
Millions of people were under severe weather advisories. More than 200,000 customers were without power, and injuries were reported in Kentucky and Arkansas.

© David Robert Elliott for The New York Times

Debris was cleared near a home after a reported tornado touched down in Nevada, Missouri.

解放军称完成联合演训 台湾侦获解放军机59架次船舰31艘

By: 陈美华
3 April 2025 at 09:25

台湾的国防部2日上午发布,自4月2日(星期三)6时至3日(星期四)6时止,共侦获解放军机59架次(其中逾越海峡中线进入台湾北部、中部、西南及东部空域31架次)及解放军舰23艘、公务船8艘,持续在台海周边活动。台湾运用任务机、舰及岸置飞弹系统严密监控与应处。

据解放军东部战区社交平台官方账号4月2日消息,东部战区新闻发言人施毅陆军大校表示,4月1日至2日,中国人民解放军东部战区圆满完成联合演训各项任务,全面检验了部队一体化联合作战能力。战区部队时刻保持高度戒备,持续加强练兵备战,坚决挫败一切“台独”分裂行径。

本台2日报道,台湾国防部表示,解放军在东海进行实弹射击,但在台海周边并未出现实弹射击。军事专家认为,中方意在将台湾内海化,为封锁台湾作准备。

© via REUTERS

2025年4月2日,解放军东部战区发布的一段影片截图显示,军事装备在东海海域参加远程实弹演习。

‘White Lotus’ Theme Song Composer Won’t Return for Season 4

3 April 2025 at 06:54
Cristóbal Tapia de Veer’s music was one of the breakout stars of HBO’s vacation thriller. But in an exclusive interview, the composer revealed that he had ooh’ed his last loo-loo.

Trump to charge tariffs of up to 50% on 'worst offenders' globally

3 April 2025 at 07:47
Watch: ''They're very tough traders' - President Trump reads from tariffs chart

President Donald Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new import taxes on all goods entering the US, in a watershed moment for global trade.

The plan sets a baseline tariff on all imports of at least 10%, consistent with a proposal Trump made on the campaign last year.

Items from countries that the White House described as the "worst offenders", including the European Union, China, Vietnam and Lesotho, would face far higher rates for what Trump said was payback for unfair trade policies.

Trump's move breaks with decades of American policy embracing free trade, and analysts said it was likely to lead to higher prices in the US and slower growth in the US and around the world.

The White House said officials would start charging the 10% tariffs on 5 April, with the higher duties starting on 9 April.

"It's our declaration of economic independence," Trump said in the White House Rose Garden against a backdrop of US flags.

The Republican president said the US had for years been "looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike".

"Today we are standing up for the American worker and we are finally putting America first," he said, calling it "one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history."

On the campaign trail last year, Trump called for new tariffs that he said would raise money for the government and boost manufacturing, promising a new age of American prosperity.

He has spent weeks previewing Wednesday's announcement, which follows other orders raising tariffs on imports from China, foreign cars, steel and aluminium and some goods from Mexico and Canada.

The White House said the latest changes would not apply to Mexico and Canada, two of America's closest trading partners.

Goods from the UK are set to face a new 10% tariff, while import taxes on items from the European Union would go to 20%.

The charge for goods imported from China will be 34%, while it will be 24% for Japan, and 26% on India.

Some of the highest rates will be levied on smaller countries, with goods from the southern African nation of Lesotho facing 50%, while Vietnam and Cambodia will be hit with 46% and 49% respectively.

The latter two have both seen a rush of investment in recent years, as firms shifted supply chains away from China following Trump's first term.

Together the moves will bring effective tariff rates in the US to levels not seen in decades.

Trump also confirmed that a 25% tax on imports of all foreign-made cars, which he announced last week, would begin from midnight.

Marine Le Pen's ban has outraged France's far right - and they may well seek revenge

3 April 2025 at 07:06
BBC A black and white silhouette of Marine Le Pen, head onlyBBC

Outrage is a precious political currency and France's far right has spent this week attempting, furiously and predictably, to capitalise on the perceived injustice of a court's decision to block its totemic leader, Marine Le Pen, from standing in the 2027 presidential election.

The airwaves have been throbbing with indignation.

"Be outraged," said one of Le Pen's key deputies, on French television, in case anyone was in doubt as to what their reaction should be.

But it remains unclear whether Le Pen's tough sentence will broaden support for her party, the National Rally (RN), or lead to greater fragmentation of the French far right. Either way, it has created a feverish mood among the nation's politicians.

Le Pen and her allies have boldly declared that France's institutions, and democracy itself, have been "executed", are "dead", or "violated". The country's justice system has been turned into a "political" hit squad, shamelessly intervening in a nation's right to choose its own leaders. And Marine Le Pen has been widely portrayed, with something close to certainty, as France's president-in-waiting, as the nation's most popular politician, cruelly robbed of her near-inevitable procession towards the Élysée Palace.

"The system has released a nuclear bomb, and if it is using such a powerful weapon against us, it is obviously because we are about to win the elections," Le Pen fumed at a news conference, comparing herself to the poisoned, imprisoned, and now dead Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny.

As France assesses its latest political tremors, an uneven pushback has begun.

No clear frontrunner for president

Nervous about the impact the judgement may have for the country's frail coalition government, the Prime Minister François Bayrou has admitted to feeling "troubled" by Le Pen's sentence and worried about a "shock" to public opinion.

But other centrist politicians have taken a firmer line, stressing the need for a clear gap between the justice system and politics.

Getty Images Le Pen and Bardella wave their arms at a rally while people wave French flags behind themGetty Images
An opinion poll carried out a day before the court decision predicted that Le Pen would secure up to 37% of votes in the 2027 presidential election

An early opinion poll appears to show the French public taking a calm line, bursting – or at least deflating – the RN's bubble of outrage. The poll, produced within hours of the court's ruling, showed less than a third of the country – 31% - felt the decision to block Le Pen, immediately, from running for public office, was unjust.

Tellingly, that figure was less than the 37% of French people who recently expressed an interest in voting for her as president.

In other words, plenty of people who like her as a politician also think it reasonable that her crimes should disqualify her from running for office.

And remember, French presidential elections are still two years away – an eternity in the current political climate.

Emmanuel Macron is not entitled to stand for another term and no clear alternative to Le Pen, from the left or centre of French politics, has yet emerged. Le Pen's share of the vote has consistently risen during her previous three failed bids for the top job but it is premature, at best, to consider her a shoo-in for 2027.

Le Pen's crime and punishment

Anyone who followed the court case against her and her party colleagues in an impartial fashion would struggle to conclude that the verdicts in Le Pen's case were unreasonable.

The evidence of a massive and coordinated project to defraud the European Parliament and its associated taxpayers included jaw-droppingly incriminating emails suggesting officials knew exactly what they were doing, and the illegality of their actions.

That the corruption was for the party, not for personal gain, surely changes nothing. Corruption is corruption. Besides, other parties have also been found guilty of similar offences.

Getty Images Head-and-shoulders image of Marine Le Pen witting in a news studioGetty Images
On 31 March, Marine Le Pen was banned with immediate effect from standing for office for five years

Regarding the punishments handed out by the court, here it seems fair to argue that Le Pen and her party made a strategic blunder in their approach to the case.

Had they acknowledged the facts, and their errors, and cooperated in facilitating a swift trial rather than helping to drag the process out for almost a decade, the judges – as they've now made clear – might have taken their attitude towards the case into consideration when considering punishments.

"Neither during the investigation nor at the trial did [Le Pen] show any awareness of the need for probity as an elected official, nor of the ensuing responsibilities," wrote the judges in a document explaining, often indignantly, why they'd delivered such a tough sentence.

They berated Le Pen for seeking to delay or avoid justice with "a defence system that disregards the uncovering of the truth".

Hypocrisy among the elite

It is worth noting, here, the wider hypocrisy demonstrated by elites across France's political spectrum who have recently been muttering their sympathy for Le Pen. It is nine years since MPs voted to toughen up the laws on corruption, introducing the very sanctions - on immediately banning criminals from public office - that were used by the judges in this case.

That toughening was welcomed by the public as an antidote to a judicial system stymied by an indulgent culture of successive appeals that enabled – and sometimes still enables - politicians to dodge accountability for decades.

Le Pen is now being gleefully taunted by her critics online with the many past instances in which she has called for stricter laws on corruption.

"When are we going to learn the lessons and effectively introduce lifelong ineligibility for those who have been convicted of acts committed while in office or during their term of office?" she asked in 2013.

Reasonable people can reasonably disagree about the court's sentencing decisions in Le Pen's case. But the notion – enthusiastically endorsed by populist and hard-right politicians across Europe and the US – that she is a victim of a conspiratorial political plot has clearly not convinced most French people.

At least not yet.

Future of France's far right

So where does this verdict – clearly a seismic moment in French politics – leave the National Rally and the wider far-right movement?

The short answer is that no one knows. There are so many variables involved – from the fate of Le Pen's fast-tracked appeal, to the RN's succession strategy, to the state of France's precarious finances, to the broader political climate and the see-sawing appetite for populism both within France and globally – that predictions are an even more dubious game than usual.

The most immediate question – given the slow pace of the legal appeal that Le Pen has vowed to initiate – is whether the RN will seek prompt revenge in parliament by attempting to bring down the fragile coalition government of François Bayrou.

Getty Images Marine Le Pen, left, next to her father Jean-Marie, rightGetty Images
Marine Le Pen followed her father Jean-Marie (right) to take over the far-right National Rally party (formerly the National Front)

That could lead to new parliamentary elections this summer and the possibility that the RN could capitalise on its victim status to increase its lead in parliament and perhaps, even, to push the country towards a deadlock in which President Macron might – yet another "might" – feel obliged to step down.

One person who will now be facing extra scrutiny is Le Pen's almost but not quite anointed successor, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, who could be drafted in as a replacement presidential candidate if Le Pen's own "narrow path" towards the Élysée remains blocked on appeal.

If social-media-savvy Bardella's popularity among French youth is any indication of his prospects, he could well sweep to victory in 2027. He has found a way to tap into the frustrations of people angry about falling living standards and concerns about immigration.

Getty Images Le Pen on the left and Bardella on the rightGetty Images
Jordan Bardella is seen as Le Pen's successor, using social media to attract support among French youth

But turning youthful support into actual votes is not always straightforward, and other, more experienced and mainstream figures on the right may well be sensing an opportunity too.

The Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, is widely seen to be emerging as a potential contender. Some even wonder if the provocative television personality, Cyril Hanouna, might become a serious political force on the right of French politics.

Meanwhile, Bardella, like the RN in general, has been on a highly disciplined mission to detoxify the party's once overtly racist and antisemitic brand. In February, for instance, he abandoned plans to speak at America's far-right CPAC event after Donald Trump's former advisor Steve Bannon made a Nazi salute.

But this week's events have revealed that the RN is enthusiastically committed to the distinctly Trump-ian and populist strategy of blaming its misfortunes on a "swamp" of unelected officials. Bardella, meanwhile, complained about the recent closure of two right-wing media channels alongside his party's own legal struggles.

"There is an extremely serious drift today that does not reflect the idea we have of French democracy," he said.

It's the sort of language that goes down well with the RN's core constituency, but its broader appeal may be limited in a country that remains, in many ways, deeply attached to its institutions.

To frame it another way, will French voters be more motivated by the belief that Le Pen was unfairly punished, or by concern that the judges involved have since been the victims of death threats and other insults?

Getty Images Emmanuel Macron with his head bowedGetty Images
Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022 - he is not entitled to stand for another term and there no clear alternative to Le Pen

As for Marine Le Pen, she has vowed that she will not be sidelined. But her destiny is not entirely in her own hands now. At the age of 56 she has become a familiar figure, fiery at times, but personally approachable, warm and, in political terms, profoundly influential and disciplined. So what next for her?

France has had one Le Pen or other (Marine's father, Jean-Marie ran four times) on their presidential ballot paper since 1988. Always unsuccessfully.

History may well look back on this week as the moment Marine Le Pen's fate was sealed, in one of three ways: as France's first female and first far-right president, swept to power on a tide of outrage. As the four-time loser of a French presidential election, finally denied power by the taint of corruption. Or as someone whose soaring political career was brought to an early and shuddering halt by her own miscalculations over a serious embezzlement scandal.

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