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Today — 5 January 2025News

全球各地如何庆祝2025年新年

5 January 2025 at 17:47

最早一批跨入2025的国家:可能每个人都熟悉悉尼歌剧院上空燃放新年烟花的画面。因为澳大利亚是最早迎接新年的国家之一。它比中欧时间早10小时。不过全世界最先跨进2025年的是太平洋岛国基里巴斯。

色彩缤纷的台北101大楼:有些城市会选择在极具标志性的建筑物燃放新年烟花,例如台北著名的101大楼。楼高508米。在台北101燃放并观赏新年烟花已经成为一项传统。

迪拜新年:这是比台北101还要高出300多米的迪拜摩天大楼——哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa)。在这里观看跨年烟花也成为一道独特的城市景观。

似是圣诞来:这里看着像圣诞市场,其实是跨年晚会。印度孟买的人口超过2800万。除夕夜,在这座城市举办许多场跨年晚会活动。

祥和的新年:叙利亚人民迎来了阿萨德政权垮台后的第一个新年聚会。首都大马士革显得格外热闹。烟花在夜空中炸开。我们仍然希望叙利亚2025年会比往年更加和平。

除夕夜的抗议活动:在格鲁吉亚首都第比利斯,数万人在除夕夜走上街头抗议政府并要求加入欧盟。一些人在议会前挥舞着欧盟旗帜。11月底,格鲁吉亚政府宣布暂停入盟谈判至2028年。此后,该国爆发了大规模抗议活动。

人在画中游:跨年夜漫步于德国东部萨克森州城市德累斯顿,就会有一种人在画中游的感觉。古老的街道,高耸的教堂和在夜空中绚烂绽放的烟花。

“防火墙”:烟花前的黑色曲线其实是山脉,由此可见烟花燃放的面积有多大。这里是巴西第二大城市(仅次于圣保罗)里约热内卢。超过600万人居住在这里。250万人参加了除夕晚会。

柏林的新年派对:这一城市地标对于世界各地的许多人来说应该都很熟悉。它展示了柏林勃兰登堡门后面的新年前夜烟花,更准确地说是勃兰登堡门上的四马车后面。德国最大的除夕派对每年都会在这里举行。

被点燃的不只是烟花:世界各地都有庆祝新年的传统和风俗。在塞内加尔隆普尔沙漠,人们穿着传统的狮子服,点燃用纸折成的2025字样,以此来庆祝新的一年的到来。

2024美国新车销量创五年新高 混动需求旺盛

5 January 2025 at 17:47
德才
2025-01-05T09:40:33.146Z
丰田汽车美国市场销量同比增长3.7%,混合动力车型如Camry和RAV4成为销量增长的主要驱动力。图为加州圣何塞的一处丰田销售点

(德国之声中文网)2024年,美国新车销量显著增长,从疫情低谷中逐步恢复。据分析公司Wards Intelligence的数据,美国市场全年销量达到1590万辆,同比增长2.2%,为2019年以来的最高水平。汽车制造商预计这一趋势将在2025年延续,但特朗普即将上任的政府可能取消电动车税收抵免,这为未来的市场表现增添了不确定性。

通用汽车在2024年继续蝉联美国销量冠军,全年销售270万辆,同比增长4.3%。公司全球市场负责人哈维(Rory Harvey)表示:“我们正带着强劲的势头迈入2025年。”

混合动力车需求激增

混合动力车在2024年的销量增长尤为显著,同比增长36.7%。丰田汽车销量同比增长3.7%,混合动力车型如Camry和RAV4成为销量增长的主要驱动力。丰田北美销售和营销负责人克里斯特(David Christ)指出:“混合动力车的需求极为强劲,几乎供不应求。相比之下,尽管提供了大量补贴,电动车的需求依然疲软。”

福特汽车同样受益于混合动力车的热销,全年总销量增长4.2%。福特报告称,混合动力车销量达187,426辆,是其电动车销量的两倍。尽管如此,福特表示将继续推动电动车销售,包括延长为电动车购买者提供免费充电装安装服务的计划至2025年3月底。

特斯拉和Stellantis表现不佳

与整体市场趋势形成对比的是,特斯拉和Stellantis在2024年的销量出现下滑。Stellantis全年销量同比下降15%,旗下Ram、Jeep和Dodge品牌销量均有所减少。公司此前的激进定价策略导致消费者流失,并最终导致前CEO塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)离职。

特斯拉也面临销量下降的压力。随着产品线逐渐老化,以及中国市场竞争加剧,这家电动车巨头在2024年的交付量罕见出现年度下降。

特朗普政策的不确定性

分析人士指出,特朗普政府的计划可能对2025年及以后的汽车市场产生重要影响,特别是如果取消拜登政府实施的7500美元电动车税收抵免政策,以及提高对墨西哥和加拿大进口汽车的关税。这些政策变化可能改变消费者的购买偏好。丰田的克里斯特表示:“如果电动车税收抵免被取消,这将显著影响消费者的选择和购买方式。”

(综合报道)

©2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。

带你一次看懂德国选举制度

5 January 2025 at 17:17

2025-01-05T08:47:40.779Z
德国的联邦议院会议厅

(德国之声中文网)德国的选票设计独特,每位选民需要同时选择两项内容。第一票是投给本选区的直接候选人,这决定了联邦议院总席位的一半,确保每个选区都有代表。第二票则是投给政党的票,它决定政党在联邦议院的整体席位的比例分配。

从2025年起,联邦议院的席位将限制在630个,以遏制过去因比例代表制导致议员人数过多的情况。然而,这一改革部分被德国宪法法院推翻,最终影响将在选举后显现。

谁有资格投票?

德国共有约8300万人口,其中约6100万人符合投票资格。这些选民是年满18岁的德国公民,包括旅居国外的公民,他们可以通过邮寄方式参与投票。

根据法律,因间谍活动或泄露国家机密等政治罪行被定罪的人可能会失去投票权,但犯有谋杀、过失杀人或严重性侵犯罪的公民则不会被剥夺投票资格。与此同时,候选人必须符合与选民相同的资格要求。

在选民中,女性略多于男性;约40%的选民年龄在60岁及以上,14%年龄在30岁以下。德国的投票率一般保持在较高水平,最近两次大选的投票率均超过76%。

5%门槛如何决定政党的命运?

根据德国选举法,政党必须获得至少5%的第二票(即政党票)才能在联邦议院中获得席位。这一规定旨在避免小型政党过多进入议会,削弱议会的功能性。然而,有两种例外情况:

如果一个政党的候选人在至少三个选区直接当选获胜,即得到第一票,即便该党未达到5%的门槛,也可按得票比例获得议会席位。此外,被认可的少数民族候选人,如丹麦族或索布族,只需获得约3.5万至3.8万张选票即可获得议席。

如何组建政府与选举总理?

在德国,如果一个政党获得超过半数的选票,其代表人数将足以推动本党的政策议程。然而,这种情况极为罕见。因此,政党通常需要与其他政党合作组建执政联盟以确保在联邦议院中占据多数席位。

传统上,获得最多选票的政党的候选人将被提名为总理,而次要联盟伙伴的候选人可能被任命为外交部长等重要职务。根据德国基本法,选举后30天内必须召开联邦议院首次会议,并选出总理。

总理候选人需获得联邦议院超过半数议员的支持。如果第一次投票失败,将在两周内进行第二轮投票;若仍未成功,则立即举行第三轮投票,简单多数者将成为总理。如果总理当选,总统需在七天内完成任命,或在无法达成一致时解散议会并重新举行选举。

如何对选举结果提出质疑?

根据德国选举审查法,任何符合投票资格的个人或团体都可以对选举结果提出质疑。这些质疑需在选举日后两个月内以书面形式提交至设在柏林的联邦议院选举审查委员会。

委员会将对所有质疑进行处理,并向每位提交者提供书面答复。如果要宣布选举无效,质疑必须证明存在违反联邦选举法、选举规则或宪法的选举错误,并且这一错误对联邦议院席位分配有直接影响。

审查委员会通常需要一年时间处理这些质疑,其中不到4%的案件会上诉至德国宪法法院。截至目前,德国从未有全国性选举因质疑被宣布无效。

©2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。

Congestion Pricing Has Begun in New York City. Here’s How It Works.

5 January 2025 at 13:01
The tolling program, the first of its kind in the nation, will charge most drivers who enter Manhattan south of 60th Street during peak hours a $9 fee.

© Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

The fees will be collected mainly through the E-ZPass system, which many drivers already use to pay tolls on bridges, tunnels and highways.

这些诉讼,因AI而起

无论是民事侵权还是刑事犯罪,作为技术工具的AI是“有罪”还是“无罪”?

涉及AI案件为何集中在民商事领域?这与AI技术的应用场景密切相关,“多数情况下AI都是用来生成一些信息,而知识产权的客体就是信息,这直接与著作权等相关法律问题产生了关系。”

南方周末记者 翟星理 南方周末实习生 陶语嫣 杜培

责任编辑:钱昊平

在一幅夺人眼球的画作前,一位愤怒的艺术家正拿着法律文件指控另一位画家盗用了他的作品。(钱昊平使用AI工具生成/图)

2024年12月26日,最高人民法院发布《人民法院第六个五年改革纲要(2024—2028年)》(以下简称“纲要”),明确了改革内容和具体任务。

近年来备受关注的AI在纲要中也有所体现:面对人工智能和算法更新迭代,要完善新兴领域的裁判规则。

作为一种新生事物,AI的概念进入中国后,已经在图文生成、音频视频制作、直播带货、教辅等民商事领域有了广泛的应用。随之而来的,司法实践中也发生了多起AI涉诉的判例。

尤其是在应用场景最为广泛的民商事领域,已有多起标志性的判例。杭州、广州、北京等地的互联网法庭先后开庭审理了全国首例“虚拟数字人”侵权案、全国首例“AIGC平台侵权案”、全国首例AI声音侵权案等。

国内尚未针对AI进行专门立法。这些判例所遵循的一些裁判原则将影响今后一段时期司法实践中对类似案件的审理工作。

在一些受访学者看来,“学界现在争论非常激烈,实务界也没有成熟的做法”。

AI绘画著作权第一案

李昀锴是一名AI绘画爱好者。2022年10月底,他开始研究AI绘画工具,根据教程从网站上下载了开源工具,逐步将生成的绘画图片发布在他的小红书账号上。

此间他也加入了许多AI绘画的社群。李昀锴注意到,不少群友存在着困惑:他们对AI绘画投入较多精力,却经常被他人盗图。他们讨论此类行为是否构成侵权?能否维权?但考虑到维权的时间成本,大多数群友最终放弃。

但李昀锴不同,他是名执业律师,于是选择了通过法律途径维权。

2023年2月24日,李昀锴通过软件生成了一组图片,两天后发布于小红书账号,标题为“春风送来了温柔”。2023年3月2日,百家号账号“我是云开日出”发布了名为《三月的爱情,在桃花里》的文章,配图使用了李昀锴生成的图片,并截去小红书平台的署名水印。

李昀锴想探究AI绘画技术所创作的成果到底是否会受到保护,于是选择起诉。

他先将百度作为起诉对象,而后将百家号注册主体追加为被告,诉请被告赔礼道歉并赔偿经济损失。案件审理阶段共开庭6次。2023年11月27日,北京互联网法院一审判决李昀锴胜诉,李昀锴没有要经济赔偿。

此案在业界、

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4位省级党委书记同日上任丨时政周报

多名副省级官员被增补为省政协委员。

2024年落马中管干部达58人。

2023年全国科普工作经费投入首次突破200亿元。

2025年春运自1月14日开始,2月22日结束。

一周时政新闻回顾(2024年12月28日—2025年1月3日)

南方周末记者 翟星理

责任编辑:钱昊平

 

2023nian 9月26日至27日,时任青海省委陈刚(右二)赴海北藏族自治州祁连县调研。(图片来源|青海日报)

2023年9月26日至27日,时任青海省委陈刚(右二)赴海北藏族自治州祁连县调研,2024年12月31日,陈刚调任广西壮族自治区党委书记。(图片来源|青海日报)

2024年最后一天,4位新任省级党委书记公开亮相。

广西壮族自治区党委原书记刘宁,调任河南省委书记;青海省委原书记陈刚,调任广西壮族自治区党委书记;此前担任湖北省省长的王忠林,升任湖北省委书记;此前担任青海省省长的吴晓军,升任青海省委书记。

生于1959年的河南省委原书记楼阳生、生于1960年的湖北省委原书记王蒙徽卸任。

新任湖北省委书记王忠林生于1962年,山东费县人,曾长期在山东任职,仕途轨迹辗转枣庄、聊城、济南等地。2020年2月,王忠林从山东省委常委、济南市委书记任上调任湖北省委常委、武汉市委书记,

“我来湖北工作后,和大家一道战疫情、闯难关、促发展,深深感到湖北是个物华天宝、得中独厚的好地方。”2024年12月31日,在湖北全省领导干部会议上,王忠林说,“深深感到湖北人民是赤胆豪情、团结奋进的英雄人民。”

卸任湖北省委书记的王蒙徽,毕业于清华大学建筑系,先后在广东、福建、辽宁任职, 2022年3月从住房城乡建设部部长改任湖北省委书记,与省长王忠林搭档,直至此番职务调整。

湖北省委领导调整的当天,河南、广西、青海的领导联动调整。

广西壮族自治区党委书记刘宁改任河南省委书记。刘宁毕业于清华大学水利工程系,长期在水利系统任职。2017年,时任水利部副部长的刘宁转任青海省委副书记,后相继担任辽宁省省长、广西壮族自治区党委书记。

到任后的第一天,2025年1月1日,刘宁赴兰考县调研。在焦裕禄干部学院,刘宁主持召开会议,听取开封市、兰考县工作情况汇报后,刘宁提到了县域治理话题。县域治理也是刘宁长期关注的重点工作之一。他在辽宁和广西工作期间,都推动过县域治理、县域经济的工作。

刘宁跨省履新后,青海省委原书记陈刚接任广西壮族自治区党委书记。陈刚生于1965年,15岁就考入扬州师范学院,后来又在哈工大、北京大学求学,在北京大学获化学博士学位。

2000年,陈刚进入政坛。2003年,时年38岁的陈刚担任北京市朝阳区代区长,是当时最年轻的正厅级干部之一。陈刚先后在北京、贵州、河北、青海任职,具有丰富的地方工作经验。2017年,陈刚离开工作了4年的贵州,先后以河北省委常委、河北省委副书记的身份同时兼任省政府副省

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校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

The year China's famous road-tripping 'auntie' found freedom

5 January 2025 at 07:07
Su Min A smiling Su Min in a red top standing by a water body with a blurred hill in the background.  Su Min
Su Min has captured the curiosity and awe of millions of Chinese women with her video diaries

Sixty-year-old Chinese grandmother Su Min had no intention of becoming a feminist icon.

She was only trying to escape her abusive husband when she hit the road in 2020 in her white Volkswagen hatchback with a rooftop tent and her pension.

"I felt like I could finally catch my breath," she says, recalling the moment she drove away from her old life. "I felt like I could survive and find a way of life that I wanted."

Over the next four years and 180,000 miles, the video diaries she shared of her adventures, while detailing decades of pain, earned her millions of cheerleaders online. They called her the "road-tripping auntie" as she inadvertently turned into a hero for women who felt trapped in their own lives.

Her story is now a hit film that was released in September - Like a Rolling Stone – and she made it to the BBC's list of 100 inspiring and influential women of 2024.

It was a year of big moments, but if she had to describe what 2024 meant to her in a single word, she says that word would be "freedom".

Su Min Su Min, wearing a blue shirt and black pants, standing in front of her white Volkswagen hatchback Su Min
Su Min's newest SUV is her third car in the four years she has spent on the road

As soon as Su Min started driving, she felt freer, she told the BBC over the phone from Shenyang – just before she headed south for winter in her new SUV with a caravan.

But it wasn't until 2024, when she finally filed for divorce, that she experienced "another kind of freedom".

It took a while to get there: it's a complicated process in China and her husband refused to divorce her until she agreed to pay him. They settled on 160,000 yuan ($21,900; £17,400) but she is still waiting for the divorce certificate to come through.

But she is resolute that she doesn't want to look back: "I'm saying goodbye to him."

The road to freedom

In her new life on the road, Su Min's duty is to herself.

Her videos mostly feature only her. Although she drives alone, she never seems lonely. She chats with her followers as she films her journey, sharing what she has been cooking, how she spent the previous day and where she's going next.

Her audience travels with her to places they never knew they would long for – Xinjiang's snow-capped mountains, Yunnan's ancient river towns, sparkling blue lakes, vast grasslands, endless deserts.

They applaud her bravery and envy the freedom she has embraced. They had rarely heard such a raw first-hand account about the reality of life as a "Chinese auntie".

"You're so brave! You chose to break free," wrote one follower, while another urged her to "live the rest of your life well for yourself!". One woman sought advice because she too "dreams of driving alone" and an awe-struck follower said: "Mom, look at her! When I get older, I'll live a colourful life like hers if I don't get married!"

For some, the takeaways are more pragmatic yet inspiring: "After watching your videos, I've learned this: as women, we must own our own home, cultivate friendships far and wide, work hard to be financially independent, and invest in unemployment insurance!"

Through it all, Su Min processes her own past. A stray cat she encounters on the road reminds her of herself, both of them having "weathered the wind and rain for years but still managing to love this world that dusts our faces". A visit to the market, where she smells chili peppers, evokes "the smell of freedom" because throughout her marriage spicy food was forbidden by her husband who didn't like it.

Su Min  Su went back to her home province Henan, dressing in traditional Chinese costume. She is standing in a red dress with fur collar in front of several yellow paper lamps, lit from the insideSu Min
Su Min in a traditional outfit when she visited her home province, Henan, in January 2024

For years Su Min had been the dutiful daughter, wife and mother – even as her husband repeatedly struck her.

"I was a traditional woman and I wanted to stay in my marriage for life," she says. "But eventually I saw that I got nothing in return for all my energy and effort – only beatings, violence, emotional abuse and gaslighting."

Her husband, Du Zhoucheng, has admitted to hitting her. "It's my mistake that I beat you," he said in a video she recently shared on Douyin, TikTok's China platform.

A high school graduate, he had a government job in the water resources ministry for 40 years before retiring, according to local media reports. He told an outlet in 2022 that he beat his wife because she "talked back" and that it was "an ordinary thing": "In a family, how can there not be some bangs and crashes?"

When duty called

Su Min married Du Zhoucheng "really to avoid my father's control, and to avoid the whole family".

She was born and raised in Tibet until 1982, when her family moved to Henan, a bustling province in the valley along the Yellow River. She had just finished high school and found work in a fertiliser factory, where most of her female colleagues, including those younger than 20, already had husbands.

Her marriage was arranged by a matchmaker, which was common at the time. She had spent much of her life cooking for and looking after her father and three younger brothers. "I wanted to change my life," she says.

The couple met only twice before the wedding. She wasn't looking for love, but she hoped that love would grow once they married.

Su Min did not find love. But she did have a daughter, and that is one reason she convinced herself she needed to endure the abuse.

Su Min Su Min in a black wetsuit in the ocean, on a purple and green surfboard Su Min
Su Min learned to surf in the waters off the coast of Hainan in February 2021

"We are always so afraid of being ridiculed and blamed if we divorce, so we all choose to endure, but in fact, this kind of patience is not right," she says. "I later learned that, in fact, it can have a considerable impact on children. The child really doesn't want you to endure, they want you to stand up bravely and give them a harmonious home."

She thought of leaving her husband after her daughter got married, but soon she became a grandmother. Her daughter had twins – and once again duty called. She felt she needed to help care for them, although by now she had been diagnosed with depression.

"I felt that if I didn't leave, I would get sicker," she says. She promised her daughter she would care for the two boys until they went to kindergarten, and then she would leave.

The spark of inspiration for her escape came in 2019 while flicking through social media. She found a video about someone travelling while living in their van. This was it, she thought to herself. This was her way out.

Even the pandemic did not stop her. In September 2020, she drove away from her marital home in Zhengzhou and she barely looked back as she made her way through 20 Chinese provinces and more than 400 cities.

It's a decision that has certainly resonated with women in China. To her millions of followers, Su Min offers comfort and hope. "We women are not just someone's wife or mother… Let's live for ourselves!" wrote one follower.

Many of them are mothers who share their own struggles. They tell her that they too feel trapped in suffocating marriages – some say her stories have inspired them to walk out of abusive relationships.

"You are a hero to thousands of women and many now see the possibility of a better life because of you," reads one of the top comments on one of her most-watched videos.

"When I turn 60, I hope I can be as free as you," another comment says.

A third woman asks: "Auntie Su, can I travel with you? I'll cover all the expenses. I just want to take a trip with you. I feel so trapped and depressed in my current life."

'Love yourself'

"Can you have the life of your dreams?" Su Min pondered over the call. "I want to tell you that no matter how old you are, as long as you work hard, you will definitely find your answer. Just like me, even though I'm 60 now, I found what I was looking for."

She admits it wasn't easy and she had to live frugally on her pension. She thought the video blogs might help raise some money – she had no idea they would go viral.

Getty Images A woman walks on the Wuhan bridge over the Yangtze river in Wuhan, in China's central Hubei province on December 22, 2024Getty Images
Su Min's stories have touched millions of Chinese women who feel trapped in their own lives

She talks about what she's learned over the years and her latest challenge – finalising the divorce.

"I haven't got my divorce certificate yet, because the law has a cooling-off period and we are now in that period."

One of her followers wrote that the money she paid her husband was "worth every penny", adding: "Now it's your turn to see the world and live a vibrant, unrestrained life. Congratulations, Auntie - here's to a colourful and fulfilling future!"

She says it's hard to get a divorce because "many of our laws in China are to protect the family. Women often dare not divorce because of family disharmony".

At first, she thought that Du Zhoucheng's behaviour might improve with time and distance, but she said he still threw "pots and pans" at her on her return.

He has only called her twice in the last few years – once because her highway access card was tied to his credit card and he wanted her to return 81 yuan (£0.90). She says she hasn't used that card since then.

Undeterred by the delay in securing a divorce, Su Min keeps planning more trips and hopes to one day travel abroad.

She's worried about overcoming language barriers, but is confident her story will resonate around the world - as it has in China.

"Although women in every country are different, I would like to say that no matter what environment you are in, you must be good to yourself. Learn to love yourself, because only when you love yourself can the world be full of sunshine."

Additional reporting by Fan Wang in Singapore

2025年 德国汽车工业面临着怎样的挑战

5 January 2025 at 16:17
Dirk Kaufmann
2025-01-05T08:15:17.076Z
夜幕下的沃尔夫斯堡大众公司总部。

(德国之声中文网)新年到来之际,德国随处都可以感受到经济低迷的氛围。而对德国经济至关重要的汽车工业,这一点表现得尤为突出。德国汽车工业的龙头老大 – 大众公司甚至计划关闭一些设在德国境内的工厂,这是该企业历史上从未有过的事情。

元旦前夕,劳资双方终于达成了一项共识。根据这项被称为“圣诞奇迹”的妥协方案,大众预计将削减35000个工作岗位,减产近四分之一,但不会采取直接的裁员措施或关闭工厂。不过,其他汽车厂家和供货商是否会出现大规模裁员潮,目前尚不得而知。

德国汽车工业前景堪忧,对此各方均无异议,只是对造成暗淡前景的具体原因,市场观察家们仍有争论。汽车工业管理中心CAM的布莱策尔(Stefan Bratzel)表示:“当前的困境是德国的多重危机导致的。”

大众公司能否走出危机和困境,2025年至关重要。

布莱策尔对德国之声表示,对于汽车工业转型过程中出现的新生事物,德国还需要从头学起。“这其中就包括电动车技术,车辆操控软件以及自动驾驶等等。除此之外,竞争环境也发生了变化,新竞争对手也早已不再局限于特斯拉和中国制造商。”

德国汽车工业联合会(VDA) 一位女发言人接受德国之声采访时表示,对于汽车工业面临的困境,德国政府也难辞其咎。她表示:“2023年12月,政府叫停了电动车补贴,充电桩设施的建设也迟迟跟不上需求,凡此种种,都对电动车的销量和汽车工业造成了冲击。”汽车工业研究所的杜登霍夫( Ferdinand Dudenhöffer)接受德国之声访谈时也表达了类似的观点,他批评说,有些政治家一会说要大力发展电动车,一会又对燃油车赞不绝口,这只能让民众感到无所适从。

沉睡不醒的汽企高层

个体化出行方式的未来,正在同燃油车技术逐步脱节,这一趋势在多年以前似乎就已成定局。至于燃油车将来会使用化石能源,还是人造能源,也早已变得无关紧要。毕竟电动车已经是大势所趋。

有鉴于此,中等企业高等学院汽车管理专业教师施沃普( Frank Schwope)认为,一些汽车企业高管的决策出现了严重失误。有些车企老总显然是采取了鸵鸟策略,认为只有把头埋进沙子里,一切终究会好起来的。

押错了宝?保时捷研发的人工合成燃油技术。

布莱策尔表示,事与愿违,一切并没有因此而好起来。面对国际竞争压力,德国的处境已经明显恶化,而造成竞争劣势的原因之一就是“高昂的劳动成本,这其中包括昂贵的医保支出以及长时间的带薪休假。”他说,当年德国汽车工业之所以能维持这样的高成本,是因为你做得比别人好,创新能力也比别人突出。

问题重重 积重难返

作为汽车专家,布莱策尔这番话可谓一针见血。对于以化石能源为动力的传统汽车,德国汽车工业的确拥有不可撼动的全球霸主地位:阀门和化油器的制造工艺,德国人绝对一流。但是在制造电子部件方面,情况就大为不同了。正如杜登霍夫所说的那样,制造今天的汽车,德国人拥有优势,但对于明天的汽车而言,唱主角的则是那些高科技企业。

布莱策尔想必也会赞同这种说法。他表示,那些历史悠久的德国顶级汽车企业,对技术转型视而不见是在是愚蠢至极,“如此因循守旧,简直就是一场悲剧。”

基尔世界经济研究所的多泽( Dirk Dohse)也认为,这正是德国汽车工业的症结所在。他表示:“德国仍然拥有世界一流的研发人员和工程师团队,但尤其是管理层非常缺乏灵活性,因此无法赢得那些酷爱新技术的亚洲年轻客户群。”

汽车行业工人也在呼吁管理层重视创新技术的研发。

威胁并不仅仅来自中国

汽车工业的未来在于电池驱动,而在这一领域,中国已经明显领先。世界经济研究所的多泽表示:“中国拥有全球最大的电动车市场,同时这里也是最具发展活力的市场。种种迹象表明,中国将继续保持快速发展的势头。”

这一发展势头显然令大众、宝马、奔驰和保时捷等一众德国企业的前景不容乐观。毕竟,中国市场的巨大规模本身,就给予了中国市场无与伦比的力量。更何况,构成竞争压力的,也并不止中国一个国家。布莱策尔表示:“现在印度也出现了一些以中国模式为样板的强有力玩家。今后可能将有一些中国和韩国厂家以合资企业的方式进入印度。”

汽车专家施沃普表示,在仍处于起步阶段的电池研发领域,德国还有一线希望。他对德国之声说:“车用电池的研发目前还不成熟,还有很大的突破空间。到2030年前,很有可能会在固体电池方面取得巨大突破,届时将会出现重新洗牌的局面。”

置之死地而后生?

布莱策尔表示,在新的一年里,德国汽车工业必须痛定思痛奋起直追,这不仅包括改善框架条件,同时也要展现勇气和想象力。“德国车不能只是价格贵,也应至少表现出相应的创新能力。”

否则,后果将不堪设想,德国汽车工业联合会发言人援引最新版本的预估调研表示:“电动车转型可以会导致工作岗位的大量流失。根据这一发展趋势,2035年时,德国汽车工业的就业人数将比2019年时减少186000人。”而2019年至2023年期间,该行业的工作岗位已经减少了46000个,预计2035年前,该行业的就业岗位还会继续减少大约14万个。

裁员和关厂:德国汽车工业阴云密布。

有鉴于此,这位发言人要求政界立即采取行动。她说:“我们应当少一点官僚主义,多一些贸易协定,建立有竞争力的税务和支出制度,并使审批程序变得更简单快捷。”

今后的日子将更加艰难

不过,即使政界能够打造出必要的框架条件,重新赋予德国强劲的竞争力,情况也难以立即出现改观。布莱策尔表示:“今后两到三年内,德国将面临一系列巨大的挑战,需要同时应对一系列结构性问题。”他表示,令人略感欣慰的是,“政界目前已经意识到了德国正面临着多重危机。”

世界经济研究所专家多泽也表示,情况今后将会继续恶化,之后才会出现峰回路转的迹象。“我认为,对德国汽车工业来说,今年将异常艰难。而这一年里,德国必须为迎接未来挑战铺平道路。”

汽车专家杜登霍夫则为德国汽车工业的未来指明了方向:一方面要寄希望于东方,另一方面要警惕美国。他说:“哪里是新潮流的诞生之地,我们就要走向那里,这一点至关重要。这其中的一部分可能是中国,也可能一部分是在美国。我们必须密切关注,特朗普上台之后,会不会让八十年代的燃油发动机技术‘再次伟大’。”

来自韩国的新技术:现代推出的Tiger X-1试验车型,既不需要燃油,也不需要道路。

大学教师施沃普的一番话或许更适合作为结束语,毕竟他看到了德国汽车工业的一线希望。施沃普认为,新的一年喜忧参半,“我认为,2025年,至迟到2026年,欧洲电动车将会出现迅猛增长的势头。”  

©2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。

After bruising election loss, what next for Kamala Harris?

5 January 2025 at 13:10
REX/Shutterstock A woman in a green suit and blouse stands in the Old Senate Chamber at the US Capitol, WashingtonREX/Shutterstock
On Monday Vice-President Harris will certify Trump's election victory against her

Exactly two months after her election loss to Donald Trump, Vice-President Kamala Harris will preside over the certification of her own defeat.

As president of the Senate, on Monday she will stand at the House Speaker's rostrum to lead the counting of Electoral College votes, officially cementing her rival's triumph two weeks before he returns to the White House.

The circumstances are painful and awkward for a candidate who decried her opponent as an urgent threat to American democracy, but Harris aides insist she will conduct her constitutional and legal duty with seriousness and grace.

It is not the first time a losing candidate will lead the joint session of Congress to count their opponent's presidential electors - Al Gore endured the indignity in 2001 and Richard Nixon in 1961.

But it's a fitting coda to an improbable election that saw Harris elevated from a back-up to the nation's oldest president to the Democratic standard bearer - whose fleeting campaign provided a jolt of hope to her party before a crushing loss exposed deep internal faultlines.

Harris and her team are now deliberating her second act, and weighing whether it includes another run for the White House in 2028 or pursuing a bid for the governor's mansion in her home state of California.

While recent Democratic candidates who lost elections - Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton - have decided against seeking the presidency again, aides, allies and donors argue that the groundswell of support Harris captured in her unsuccessful bid and the unusual circumstances of her condensed campaign proves there's still scope for her to seek the Oval Office.

They even point to Donald Trump's own circuitous political path - the former and future president's bookend wins in 2016 and 2024, despite losing as the incumbent in 2020.

But while many Democrats do not blame Harris for Trump's win, some - stung by a bruising loss that has called the party's strategy into question - are deeply sceptical of giving her another shot at the White House. A host of Democratic governors who coalesced behind the vice-president in 2024 but have ambitions of their own are seen by some strategists as fresher candidates with a much better chance of winning.

Reuters President Donald Trump points towards Democratic presidential nominee,  Vice President Kamala Harris, as he speaks during a presidential debate Reuters
Trump and Harris in their TV debate in September

Harris herself is said to be in no rush to make any decisions, telling advisers and supporters she is open to all the possibilities that await her after Inauguration Day on 20 January.

She is assessing the last few months, which saw her launch an entirely new White House campaign, vet a running-mate, lead a party convention and barnstorm the country in just 107 days. And aides point out that she remains the US vice-president, at least for another two weeks.

"She has a decision to make and you can't make it when you're still on the treadmill. It may have slowed down – but she's on the treadmill until 20 January," said Donna Brazile, a close Harris ally who advised the campaign.

"You can't put anyone in a box. We didn't put Al Gore in a box and it was obvious the country was very divided after the 2000 election," said Brazile, who ran Gore's campaign against George W Bush and pointed to his second life as an environmental activist. "All options are on the table because there's an appetite for change and I do believe that she can represent that change in the future."

But the nagging question that shadows any potential 2028 run is whether the 60-year-old can separate herself from Joe Biden - something she failed to do in the election campaign.

Her allies in the party say that Biden's choice to seek re-election despite worries about his age, only then to ultimately drop out of the race with months to go, doomed her candidacy.

Though Trump swept all seven battleground states and is the first Republican in 20 years to win the popular vote, his margin of victory was relatively narrow while Harris still won 75 million votes, an outcome her supporters argue can't be ignored as a currently faceless Democratic party rebuilds over the next four years.

On the other side, those close to Biden remain convinced he could have defeated Trump again, despite surveys showing he had been bleeding support from key Democratic voting blocs.

They point out that Harris fell short where the president didn't in 2020, underperforming with core Democratic groups like black and Latino voters. Critics continue to bring up her 2019 campaign to become the Democratic presidential nominee, which sputtered out in less than a year.

"People forget that had there been a real primary [in 2024], she never would have been the nominee. Everyone knows that," said one former Biden adviser.

The adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, applauded Harris for reviving the Democratic base and helping key congressional races, but said Trump's campaign successfully undercut her on critical campaign issues including the economy and the border.

Reuters Joe Biden holds Kamala Harris' hand in the air while gesturing at Day One of the Democratic National ConventionReuters
Biden and Harris at the Democratic National Convention in August, a high point for her campaign

Members of Trump's team, however, including his chief pollster, have acknowledged that Harris performed stronger as a candidate than Biden on certain issues like the economy among voters.

Yet there's no escaping that any Democratic primary contest for 2028 would be a tough fight, with rising stars like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and California Governor Gavin Newsom already weighing presidential runs.

Some Democrats say that Harris would nonetheless start ahead of the pack, with national name recognition, a much-coveted mailing list and a deep bench of volunteers.

"What state party would not want her to come help them set the table for the 2026 midterm elections?" Brazile said. "She's going to have plenty opportunities not only to rebuild, but to strengthen the coalition that came together to support her in 2024."

Others have suggested she could step out of the political arena entirely, running a foundation or establishing an institute of politics at her alma mater, Howard University, the Washington-based historically black college where she held her election night party.

The former top state prosecutor could also be a contender for secretary of state or attorney general in a future Democratic administration. And she'll need to decide if she wants to write another book.

For all of her options, Harris has told aides, she wants to remain visible and be seen as a leader in the party. One adviser suggested that she could exist outside the domestic political fray, taking on a more global role on an issue that matters to her, but that's a difficult perch without a platform as large as the vice-presidency.

Reuters Kamala Harris flanked by emergency aid workers looking at essential supplies laid out on tables in North CarolinaReuters
Harris helps with emergency aid packages after Hurricane Helene in North Carolina

In the waning days of the Biden-Harris administration, she plans to embark on an international trip to multiple regions, according to a source familiar with the plans, signalling her desire to maintain a role on the world stage and build a legacy beyond being Biden's number two.

For Harris and her team, the weeks since the election have been humbling, a mix of grief and resolve. Several aides described the three-month sprint that began when Biden dropped out as having begun with the campaign "digging out of a hole" and ending with their candidate more popular than when she began, even if she didn't win.

"There's a sense of peace knowing that given the hand we were dealt, we ran through the tape," said one senior aide.

Following the election, Harris and her husband, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, spent a week in Hawaii with a small group of aides to relax and discuss her future.

During a staff holiday party at her official residence before Christmas, Harris recounted election night and how she delivered a pep talk to her family as the results became clear.

"We are not having a pity party!" she told the crowd of her reaction that night.

Advisers and allies say she is still processing what happened, and wants to wait and see how the new administration unfolds in January before staking out any position, let alone seeking to become the face of any so-called Trump "resistance".

Democrats have found the resistance movement that took off among liberals in the wake of his 2016 win no longer resonates in today's political climate, where the Republican has proven that his message and style appeals to a huge cross-section of Americans.

They have adopted a more conciliatory approach in confronting the incoming president's agenda. As several Democrats put it: "What resistance?"

Though she's kept a relatively low profile since her loss, Harris provided a glimpse of her mindset at an event for students at Prince George's Community College in Maryland in December.

"The movements for civil rights, women's rights, workers' rights, the United States of America itself, would never have come to be if people had given up their cause after a court case, or a battle, or an election did not go their way," she said.

"We must stay in the fight," she added, a refrain she has repeated since her 2016 Senate win. "Everyone of us."

EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock Former US President Barack Obama celebrates by holding up Kamala Harris' hand in the air and gestures towards her on stage at a rallyEPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
Former US President Barack Obama campaigned with Kamala Harris

What that means is less clear. For some donors and supporters, staying "in the fight" could translate to a run for California governor in 2026, when a term-limited Gavin Newsom will step down and potentially pursue his own White House ambitions. The job, leading the world's fifth-largest economy, would also put Harris in direct conflict with Trump, who has regularly assailed the state for its left-leaning policies.

But governing a major state is no small feat, and would derail any presidential run, as she would be sworn into office about the same time she would need to launch a national campaign.

Those who have spoken to Harris said she remains undecided about the governor's race, which some allies have described as a potential "capstone" to her career.

She has won statewide office three times as California's attorney general and later as a US senator. But a gubernatorial win would give her another historic honour - becoming the nation's first black female governor.

Still, some allies acknowledge it would be difficult to transition from being inside a 20-car motorcade and having a seat across the table from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the governor's mansion.

The private sector is another option.

"For women at other levels of office, when they lose an election, sometimes options are not as available to them compared to men, who get a soft landing at a law firm or insurance business, and it gives them a place to take a beat, make some money and then make decisions about what's next," said Debbie Walsh, director for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

"I don't think that's going to be a problem for Kamala Harris. I think doors will open for her if she wants to open them."

But for Harris, who has been in elected office for two decades, and worked as a public prosecutor before that, an afterlife as governor may be the most fitting option.

"When you've had one client – the people – for the entirety of your career," said one former adviser, "where do you go from here?"

Snow hits parts of the UK with amber weather warnings in place

5 January 2025 at 12:39
Snow and ice warnings issued for parts of UK

Heavy snow and freezing rain are set to bring considerable disruption across the UK, with an amber weather warning now in force.

Parts of northern England, the Midlands and Wales are forecast to be among the worst hit as adverse weather pushes northwards throughout the night, possibly bringing 20-40cm (7.8-15.7in) of snow in some places.

The Met Office has warned of hazardous travel conditions and told motorists it is "safer not to drive". Power cuts are possible and some rural communities could get cut off.

Less severe yellow weather warnings are also in force covering other areas, including Scotland, Northern Ireland and southern parts of England.

The amber weather warnings in place are:

  • A warning for snow and freezing rain covering most of Wales and central England, including the Midlands and the north-west cities of Liverpool and Manchester, until noon on Sunday
  • A separate warning for snow covering most of northern England including Leeds, Sheffield and the Lake District from 21:00 GMT on Saturday to midnight on Sunday.

Amber warnings are more serious than yellow warnings and indicate a possible risk to life due to severe weather, as well as more significant travel disruption.

Much of England and Wales is covered by a separate yellow warning for snow and freezing rain into Sunday, though there is uncertainty over how disruptive the adverse weather could be, with milder temperatures forecast.

Most of Northern Ireland, as well as an swathe of northern Scotland, are also covered by yellow warnings for snow and ice.

Prof Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that freezing rain occurs when droplets fall onto surfaces at temperatures below zero degrees and instantly freeze, causing a "glazed ice" on the ground.

Snowfall began in western parts of England on Saturday evening, and a zone of wet weather will continue to move northwards across England and Wales overnight, turning readily to snow as it interacts with the cold air that is sitting across the UK.

The heaviest snow is expected in higher parts of Wales, the Midlands and northern England with up to 30-40cm possible over the mountains of north Wales, the Peak District and the Pennines.

At lower levels some disruptive snow is likely but in places this will mix with rain - falling on cold surfaces, leading to the threat of ice.

Cumbria Police said on Saturday afternoon that it had received numerous calls about a multiple-vehicle collision on Wrynose Pass in the Lake District.

Road users in England's north have been warned up to 25cm of snow could hit parts of the network including the A66 Old Spittal, A628 Woodhead Pass and M62 at Windy Hill.

Reuters A stag lies amongst frosty foliage in Richmond Park on Saturday. Only its head and antlers are visible.Reuters
A stag lies amongst frosty foliage in Richmond Park on Saturday

Eastern parts of Northern Ireland could also see a little snow overnight with up to 10cm possible over the hills.

Snow and ice will also affect parts of southern and eastern Scotland through the early hours, with wintry showers in northern Scotland also giving the chance of slippery conditions.

Across southern counties of England and southern Wales any snow is likely to turn back to rain as milder air pushes in - temperatures in parts of south west England could be as high as 12C by the end of the night.

On Sunday further snow is expected to accumulate across parts of northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland, where it will remain cold.

Heavy rain will be more of an issue across Wales, central and southern England where milder conditions will develop.

Fresh yellow weather warnings will also come into force in some areas on Sunday.

Heavy rain and thawing snow could lead to flooding in some parts of north-west England and Wales, while localised snow and ice warnings cover parts of Scotland where it will remain cold.

Temperatures are forecast to dip again from Monday, and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) amber cold weather health alerts for all of England remain in place.

You can keep up to date with BBC Weather forecasts online and on the app.

Join the BBC Weather Watchers community here.

Farage defends Musk after grooming gangs posts

5 January 2025 at 13:30
BBC Nigel FarageBBC

Nigel Farage has defended Elon Musk after the billionaire attacked the UK government's response to grooming gangs on X, the social media platform he owns.

In a series of posts over several days, Musk suggested Sir Keir Starmer failed to prosecute gangs and said Home Office minister Jess Phillips "deserves to be in prison".

It came as the Home Office defended its decision to reject a request for it to lead a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham. The Conservatives and Reform UK have called for a wider national inquiry.

Asked about Musk's comments on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Farage said he had used "very tough terms" but that "free speech was back" on X under his ownership.

Farage was also pressed on his wider relationship with Musk, who is said to be considering donating money to his Reform party.

Musk's latest intervention on UK politics came after Phillips, a safeguarding minister within the Home Office, instructed Oldham Council to launch its own local inquiry into historic child sexual abuse in the town, similar to inquiries set up in Rochdale and Telford. The local authority had called for a government-led inquiry.

The tech tycoon seized on the decision, which was taken in October, and began heavily criticising the British government online.

He suggested Sir Keir had failed to properly prosecute rape gangs while director of public prosecutions (DPP), and has repeatedly shared posts from Reform and Conservative MPs calling for a national inquiry.

Musk, who is a key advisor to incoming US President Donald Trump, called the prime minister "two-tier Keir" and accused Phillips of being a "rape genocide apologist".

Asked about the comments, Farage said "tough things get said... by both sides of the debate".

He continued: "This man happens to be the richest man in the world, but equally, the fact that he's bought Twitter now actually gives us a place where we can have a proper open debate about many things... We may find it offensive, but it's a good thing, not a bad thing."

Earlier this week, Farage distanced himself from Musk's support for Tommy Robinson - a far-right activist who is serving a jail term for committing contempt of court.

PA Media Nick Candy, Elon Musk and Nigel Farage posing for a photoPA Media
Reform party treasurer Nick Candy, Farage and Musk met at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago property last month

In an interview to be broadcast on BBC One on Sunday morning, Farage said the public is "absolutely right to be" angry about grooming gangs.

He went on: "I just think people ask themselves, what has happened to our country? How could this possibly have happened? Why did everybody want to cover it up? Why has there been no full public inquiry?"

On Saturday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper defended Phillips as "fearless and formidable" and someone who has campaigned "tirelessly for justice for those badly let down by endemic institutional failure" for many years.

In a separate letter seen by the BBC, Phillips and Cooper wrote to the Conservatives setting out why they had asked Oldham Council to set up its own inquiry, rather than grant its request for a government-led one. The previous Conservative government turned down a similar request in 2022.

The letter pointed out the local authority had already started setting up its own inquiry, and added that victims have said "loud and clear" they want action.

"In Oldham the crimes committed by grooming gangs were horrific," they wrote.

"Young girls were abused in the most cruel and sadistic way. Victims and the community need to know that all steps are taken to deliver justice and protect children properly in the future."

They said they supported an independent review commissioned by Mayor Andy Burnham, which covered historic abuse in Oldham and led to a new police investigation, as well as other child protection work across Greater Manchester.

The letter highlighted the work of the Child Sexual Abuse Inquiry, which published its final findings in 2022. It made clear that "abuse must be pursued and challenged everywhere with no fear or favour" - whether in care homes, churches, homes or by grooming gangs.

Professor Alexis Jay, who led that inquiry, said in November she felt "frustrated" that none of its 20 recommendations to tackle abuse had been implemented more than two years later.

On Friday, Health Secretary West Streeting said the government was getting "on with the job" of implementing the recommendations "in full" since taking office in July.

There have been several investigations into grooming gangs in various parts of England, including Rotherham, Bristol, Cornwall and Derbyshire.

An inquiry into abuse in Rotherham found 1,400 children had been sexually abused over a 16-year period, predominantly by British Pakistani men.

An investigation in Telford found that up to 1,000 girls had been abused over 40 years - and that some cases had not been investigated because of "nervousness about race".

Police figures from 2023 reveal that group-based child sexual abuse accounted for 3.7% of all sexual offences against children reported to police.

According to the data, 26% of group-based child sexual abuse happened within families, compared with 17% involving groups including grooming gangs.

  • Watch Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg on BBC One at 9am

US braced for worst winter storm in over a decade

5 January 2025 at 12:43
Getty Images Snow falls outside the US CapitolGetty Images

Tens of millions of Americans are bracing for a huge winter storm that could bring the heaviest snowfall and coldest temperatures in over a decade.

The storm, which started in the middle of the US, will move east in the next couple of days, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.

Parts of the US not accustomed to severe cold, including Mississippi and Florida, have been warned to expect treacherous conditions.

Forecasters say the extreme weather is being caused by the polar vortex, an area of cold air that circulates around the Arctic.

"For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

AccuWeather forecaster Dan DePodwin said: "This could lead to the coldest January for the US since 2011."

He added that "temperatures that are well below historical average" could linger for a week.

Those low temperatures will be on the east coast as well, where the storm is expected to reach by Sunday evening.

In the central US, there will be "considerable disruptions to daily life" and "dangerous or impossible driving conditions and widespread closures" into Sunday, according to the NWS.

Some areas of Kansas and Indiana could see at least 8in (20.3cm) of snow.

In parts of the Midwest, blizzards are possible.

"Whiteout conditions will make travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists becoming stranded," the NWS warned.

Sleet and freezing rain is forecast for Missouri, Illinois, and swathes of Kentucky and West Virginia.

As the storm moves east, millions more Americans will see record low temperatures, forecasters said.

Cities including Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia are preparing for snowy and icy conditions from Sunday into Monday. Snowfall of between 5-12in could be recorded in parts of Virginia.

Also on Sunday, portions of the southern US including Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi may see severe thunderstorms.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue said: "It's going to be a mess, a potential disaster. This is something we haven't seen in quite a while."

American, Delta, Southwest and United airlines are waiving change fees for passengers because of the potential flight disruptions.

Severe winter storm puts much of US on high alert

5 January 2025 at 12:43
Getty Images Snow falls outside the US CapitolGetty Images

Tens of millions of Americans are bracing for a huge winter storm that could bring the heaviest snowfall and coldest temperatures in over a decade.

The storm, which started in the middle of the US, will move east in the next couple of days, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.

Parts of the US not accustomed to severe cold, including Mississippi and Florida, have been warned to expect treacherous conditions.

Forecasters say the extreme weather is being caused by the polar vortex, an area of cold air that circulates around the Arctic.

"For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

AccuWeather forecaster Dan DePodwin said: "This could lead to the coldest January for the US since 2011."

He added that "temperatures that are well below historical average" could linger for a week.

Those low temperatures will be on the east coast as well, where the storm is expected to reach by Sunday evening.

In the central US, there will be "considerable disruptions to daily life" and "dangerous or impossible driving conditions and widespread closures" into Sunday, according to the NWS.

Some areas of Kansas and Indiana could see at least 8in (20.3cm) of snow.

In parts of the Midwest, blizzards are possible.

"Whiteout conditions will make travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists becoming stranded," the NWS warned.

Sleet and freezing rain is forecast for Missouri, Illinois, and swathes of Kentucky and West Virginia.

As the storm moves east, millions more Americans will see record low temperatures, forecasters said.

Cities including Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia are preparing for snowy and icy conditions from Sunday into Monday. Snowfall of between 5-12in could be recorded in parts of Virginia.

Also on Sunday, portions of the southern US including Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi may see severe thunderstorms.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue said: "It's going to be a mess, a potential disaster. This is something we haven't seen in quite a while."

American, Delta, Southwest and United airlines are waiving change fees for passengers because of the potential flight disruptions.

How Hybrid Tactics Targeted NATO Allies in 2024: Drones, Exploding Parcels, Sabotage

4 January 2025 at 19:12
Russia and other hostile states have become increasingly brazen in adopting “gray zone” attacks against Europe and the United States, leaving defense officials with a dilemma: How to respond?

© Ronald Wittek/EPA, via Shutterstock

Ramstein Air Base in Germany, one of the biggest U.S. posts in Europe, where mysterious drones appeared in what analysts suspected may have been a state-sponsored surveillance mission.

Jeju Air’s Problems Mount After Crash of Flight 7C2216

5 January 2025 at 13:01
South Korea’s leading low-cost carrier, heavy with debt and its stock already near record lows, is now facing intense public and government scrutiny.

© Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

The wreckage of the Jeju Air plane that struck a wall at the end of the runway at Muan International Airport in South Korea last Sunday.

Hong Kong’s Cabbies, Long Scorned and Frustrated, Face the End of an Era

A government push to modernize taxi services comes up against the habits of drivers known for driving fast and accepting only cash.

© Anthony Kwan for The New York Times

Joe Fong driving a taxi with five cellphones affixed on his dashboard. He sees no value in antagonizing customers. “You need a ride and I need your money.”

Austria's chancellor to quit as coalition talks collapse

5 January 2025 at 08:04
Reuters Head of Austrian People's Party (OEVP) and Chancellor Karl Nehammer addresses the media during the election campaign in Vienna, 5 Sep 24Reuters

Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer says he will resign in the coming days, both as chancellor and party leader, after talks about forming a coalition government collapsed.

The chancellor said his party - the conservative People's Party (ÖVP) - and the Social Democrats had failed to agree on key issues.

The liberal Neos, another party involved in the talks, also pulled out on Friday.

In September the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won an unprecedented victory in Austria's general election, but the other parties ruled out forming a coalition with the FPÖ's leader Herbert Kickl.

The collapse of the talks could lead to the conservatives negotiating with the far-right, or to a new election taking place, analysts have said.

The Russia-friendly FPÖ has been in a ruling coalition before. It would likely welcome a new election as opinion polls suggest its popularity has grown further since September.

The FPÖ has said in a statement on X that three months have been lost by the coalition talks and adds that "instead of stability, we have chaos".

The party has called for Social Democrat leader Andreas Babler to also resign and said President Alexander Van der Bellen bears "a significant share of responsibility for the chaos that has arisen and the lost time".

The FPÖ won almost 29% of the vote in September's election, the People's Party came second with 26.3% and the Social Democrats third, with 21%.

There was a high turnout of 77.3% as Austrian voters took part in an election dominated by the twin issues of migration and asylum, as well as a flagging economy and the war in Ukraine.

The FPÖ's Kickl promised to build "Fortress Austria", to restore Austrians' security and prosperity.

The party wants firm rules on legal immigration and it has promoted the idea of remigration, which involves sending asylum seekers to their original countries.

The FPÖ was founded by former Nazis in the 1950s.

Two days before last year's general election vote some of its candidates were caught on video at a funeral where an SS song was sung.

The party later denied the song, dating back to 1814, had any link to "National Socialist sentiments".

【CDT报告汇】CECC年度报告:从强迫劳动到技术支持,西方企业充当中共镇压人权的同谋(外二篇)

5 January 2025 at 10:01

blockquote>

编者按:《CDT报告汇》栏目收录和中国言论自由及其他人权问题相关的报告资讯。这些报告的来源多种多样,包括机构调查、学术研究、媒体报道和网民汇集等等。也欢迎读者向我们推荐值得关注的报告。

中国数字时代本周推荐媒体:

“真实故事奖”(True Story Award) :是首个全球新闻报道奖项,旨在表彰全球各地高质量的新闻报导,评选作品涵盖中文在内的9 种语言。

2025获奖中文作品:
【在場】國境之間:「春天革命」與泰緬邊界上的緬甸流亡者
【端传媒,在場】被两地“驱逐”的人
【澎湃新闻网】我是董宇,不是“铁生”
【三联生活周刊】梅大高速塌方:没有抵达家乡的打工者
【凤凰周刊冷杉RECORD】《隐痛66岁:当一位农村女性遭受三次性侵》
【GQ】以AI之名:一个父亲复生女儿的决心
【 正面连接】从家中偷走一个11岁女孩
【《人物》杂志】一个高中生和她拍下的117根手指
【Women我们】软肋

一、CECC 年度报告:2024 中国人权状况依旧恶劣,西方企业充当帮凶

2024 年底,美国国会及行政当局中国委员会 (CECC) 照例发布了中国人权状况和法治发展 2024 年度报告,结果显示,中国 2024 年人权依旧恶劣。然而,报告特别指出,大量西方企业参与其中,是中共侵犯人权的“同谋” (complicity)。

img

报告封面
CDT 档案卡
标题:【CDT报告汇】CECC年度报告:从强迫劳动到技术支持,西方企业充当中共镇压人权的帮凶(外二篇)
作者:中国数字时代
发表日期:2025.1.4
主题归类:强迫劳动
主题归类:俄乌战争
主题归类:良心犯
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

CECC 主席史密斯 (Christopher Smith) 表示:“在今天发布的 2024 年度报告中,CECC 再次与中国人民站在一起,对抗中国共产党…… 我们还严厉批评了那些与这些侵害行为有牵连的西方企业,包括那些使用被强迫劳动污染的供应链的企业。从此以后,他们再也不能说:‘我们不知道。’”

具体来讲,西方企业协助中共侵犯人权主要在于“使用强迫劳动和协助中国创建大规模生物特征监控系统”。

比如,报告特别点名德国知名汽车制造商大众汽车 (Volkswagen)。委员会称,有明确证据显示:大众汽车不仅涉嫌违反《防止强迫维吾尔人劳动法》的进口规定,还在新疆维吾尔自治区吐鲁番市利用遭强迫的维吾尔劳工修建测试跑道。

报告还提及了西方公司的撇清责任的办法——“审计清洗” (auditing washing)。这一现象是指这些西方公司雇佣某些审计公司,然后这些审计公司宣称其认证的中国工厂与供应链不存在强迫劳动或其他侵犯人权行为,以此帮助这些公司撇清责任。比如,审计机构“洛宁-人权和尽责商务”(Löning Human Rights & Responsible Business)的一位审计师公开与一次审计报告撇清关系。然而,正是这份审计让大众汽车在 2023 年 12 月声称:“没有发现任何侵犯人权的行为或更为广泛的工作条件问题。”

此外,这份 317 页的报告和去年一样,再次谈及了中国日益恶化的人权状况。报告详细记录了中国当局侵犯人权的行为,包括侵犯公民自由(言论自由、宗教自由和公民社会)、法治、歧视、虐待和人口贩卖、工人权利、西藏、新疆和港澳等问题。

其中,报告在摘要中特别强调了六点问题:

在新疆维吾尔自治区持续发生的暴行。
工会权益活动人士所遭到的镇压,尤其是在过去一年中罢工和劳工抗议数量上升的背景下。
不断推进的对香港民主自由的瓦解,利用国家安全法监禁了逾一千名政治犯。
试图摧毁包括藏人、南蒙古人以及维吾尔人在内的少数民族的语言和文化的行为。
在政治上被视为具有威胁性的公民社会组织和倡导活动上进一步加强控制,包括对宗教信徒和宗教社群的严厉打击。
恢复对朝鲜人的强迫遣返。

最后,该委员会表示,为了应对这些问题,美国国会提出了多项立法以制止这一情况,并表示会继续监督中国的人权状况。

二、美国国家科学院院刊:俄罗斯媒体成功塑造中国互联网的俄乌战争叙事

2024 年 12 月 30 日,《美国国家科学院院刊》(PNAS)上发表了一篇论文 《穿越防火墙:外媒在塑造中国社交媒体俄乌战争叙事中的作用》,结论显示俄罗斯媒体塑造了微博上的俄乌战争叙事。

img

文章封面

该研究首先收集了俄乌战争初期(2022 年 2 月至 4 月)微博上与此相关的 43 万余条帖子。研究者与其团队首先使用预训练 BERT 模型从庞大的微博数据中识别出 2,183 个主要叙事(narratives),然后对比分析来自中国、俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国约 10,000 家新闻网站的 826 万篇报道,以评估微博叙事在不同媒体生态系统之间的对应关系、首次出现时间以及影响力传播轨迹。

这一研究的主要目的是分析中国数字审查体系是否使微博用户对国际时事的获取几乎完全依赖官方媒体。

结果发现,俄罗斯新闻网站在与微博叙事相匹配的数量上占据主导,而中国新闻网站仅有约 10% 的微博叙事与之高度关联,甚至仅有 5% 的叙事最早可追溯到中国网站。此外,俄罗斯媒体对微博舆论的整体影响也显著高于中国媒体,其对微博舆论的“引导力”占比高达近八成。换言之,尽管中国的数字审查制度被普遍视为“防火墙”,但该研究显示,微博上与俄乌冲突相关的信息并非仅由中国官方媒体“把关”,而是受到外语媒体(尤其是俄语媒体)的显著影响。研究者指出,这一结果与传统的“信息孤岛”假说并不完全吻合。

最后,作者表示:“总体而言,这些结果表明,尽管中国实行严格的审查制度,但中国民众在数字领域并未与世界其他国家隔绝。中国国家媒体并不是国内观众了解外交事务的唯一守门人。我们的研究结果还强调,英语或纯粹西方导向的视角可能会导致人们误以为中国在数字领域是孤立的。考虑到其他语言和背景,很明显,在中国境外流传的叙事也出现在中国互联网上。”

三、维权网:十二月中国新增41名良心犯

公民维权志愿者联网组织维权网于12月31日发布了十二月《中国大陆在押政治犯、良心犯月度报告》。根据该报告,维权网上期名录中的44人已被刑满释放或取保获释。本期获悉有2名良心犯在狱中被迫害致死。并获悉有被羁押的3人被判刑,9人狱中有新动态。同时,本期新增被刑事拘留/被精神病/强迫失踪3人以及38人被判刑,共计41人。被捕的主要原因是维权上访,参加宗教活动,以及参加民主人权活动等。

1、本月获悉上期名录中刑满释放及取保获释的44人的名单:

白彦宾、卞丽训、常秀娥、陈淑琴、杜志俊、

范一平、何庆云、胡德元、黄爱华、江笑容、

金永新、靳玉玲、景润茹、寇爱梅、李萍、

栗静、 林国兰、刘淑萍、刘嗣祖、娄亚红、

马庆霞、梅新英、潘冬梅、任桂芬、孙淑杰、

汤芳琼、王红、 王卫真、吴玉娟、夏忆林、

徐建鑫、袁王柱、袁文格、曾永昭、张凤莲、

张美玲、张宪、 张小荣、赵常碧、卓顺珍、

江贤俊、訚爱梅、段振伟、曹培植、

2、羁押人员3人被判刑:

7年:董郁玉、

4年6个月:张忠顺、

2年6个月:宋泽、

3、被刑事拘留、被精神病、强迫失踪3人:

李宜雪:江西维权人士,女。李宜雪女士维权事件源于其在2022年4月14日遭派出所辅警猥亵,并在向警方指控后,竟然被警方送至江西省精神病院强制入院56日的事件。2022年12月21日,南昌市公安局西湖分局发通报回应,认定涉事辅警赖某吉不存在猥亵行为,并指李宜雪在2022年4月中先后4次在公共场合扬言自杀、自称患有抑郁症、难以入睡,丁公路派出所因此将其送至江西省精神病院,医院诊断后收治入院,民警也于当日通知家属。李宜雪后以医疗损害责任纠纷为由起诉江西省精神病院,并在网上曝光遭遇、发视频回应通报。2022年12月6日,诉江西省精神病院案一审开庭,庭审约两个小时,法院宣布择期宣判。2024年12月14日,李宜雪发布两则短视频称西湖分局筷子巷派出所所长带十余人闯入家中并破坏门口监控设备,此后李宜雪失联,引发网民持续关注。西湖区委宣传部12月17日通报称,当地小区此后每日上门关心,李宜雪一直在家中。大批中国大陆网民尝试多种方式联系李宜雪未果。2024年12月22日,南昌市公安局西湖分局、西湖区南浦街道办事处发布通告称,12月13日夜间北京安定医院3名专家(另5名民警、1名小区干部陪同)已在协商后上门到李宜雪家中为李宜雪鉴定,并与李宜雪父亲谈话,12月21日北京安定医院作出李宜雪患有强迫性障碍、人格障碍,鉴于李宜雪当前病情,22日已将其送诊。上述公告并未打消公众质疑,相反,大陆民间舆论对中共当局再次强制将李宜雪关进精神病院一事表达强烈的不满,谴责之声一夜之间如海啸一般。

多杰旦仁:藏族,他是位于青海果洛州久治县的多杰旦民族职业技术学校校长。多杰旦仁波切于2024年11月初被失踪,中共当局警告当地僧俗民众不得谈论他被失踪情况和传送他的开示视频等。多杰旦职业学校有1300多学生,藏人开始担心这个职校的命运。

刘汉斌:重庆自媒体人,网名:文艺犯。2024年11月27日,刘汉斌因公开声援内蒙古清河县失地农民维权,被内蒙古呼和浩特警方以涉嫌“寻衅滋事罪”跨省抓捕,并被刑事拘留,目前关押在呼和浩特市第一看守所。律师提出取保候审的请求,于2024年12月6日被呼和浩特警方以“案件重大复杂”为由拒绝,并且限制律师的正常会见权利。刘汉斌是一名长期关注社会问题、敢于揭露真相的自媒体人。他通过个人平台记录和揭露中国基层社会的不公现象,特别是失地农民的困境。此次事件的起因是刘汉斌公开支持内蒙古清河县失地农民的维权行动,揭露当地政府强行征地、补偿不足等问题。这些失地农民多年来上访未果,甚至遭到地方政府的暴力打压和非法拘禁。

4、本期新增被判刑的38人名单:

16年:帕尔哈提·吐尔逊(维)、

10年:任建平、毛丽旦·依拉吾冬(维)、李卓忠、廖燕琼、

9年:杜秀艳、

7年9个月:邹家成、

7年6个月:陈敏、

7年:高晓颖、张秀芳、赵家贤、

6年9个月:林卓廷、

6年6个月:彭卓棋、李秀珍、

6年1个月:钟锦麟、

6年:姚锡锐、

5年:谢育军、

4年6个月:丛伟、

4年:杨秀花、黄邵溥、王建、

3年6个月:李孟君、刘春华、

3年3个月:李春丰、

3年:段桂秀、张旭、金宝存、杨淑玉、

2年10个月:杨洁、

2年6个月:张淑杰、赵鸿娥、

2年:朱亚梅、

1年9个月:王改梅、

1年6个月:杨毓萍、

1年4个月:杨美华、

1年:孙超、李俊飞、苑俊丰、

5、本期获悉狱中被迫害致死的2人名单:

王忠实、姚静娇、

截止发稿为止,中国目前共有1651名在押政治犯、良心犯。其中,死缓11人,无期徒刑18人,有期徒刑1387人,刑期不明24人,羁押未判235人,另有大量人员 “被精神病” 和强迫失踪并未完全记录在内。

每位政治犯、良心犯的被捕原因详情请访问维权网:《维权网:中国大陆在押政治犯、良心犯月度报告(2024年12月31日)第111期(共1651人)》

此外,我们还需要关注的有非营利组织中国劳工通讯对于中国劳工权利的追踪报道。十二月份中国发生了安全事故0起,工人集体行动166起,工人求助36起。

Guatemalan forces arrive in Haiti to fight gangs

5 January 2025 at 10:10
Reuters Guatemalan soldiers hold a Guatemala flag as they arrive in Haiti for a security mission, at Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, HaitiReuters
Guatemalan security forces hold their country's flag as they arrive in Haiti's capital city, Port-au-Prince

A contingent of 150 Guatemalan soldiers has arrived in Haiti, tasked with helping to restore order amid the chaos wrought by armed gangs.

A first group of 75 soldiers arrived on Friday and another 75 on Saturday, all drafted from the military police, according to Guatemala's government.

A state of emergency has been in place across the Caribbean nation for months as the government battles violent gangs that have taken control of much of Port-au-Prince.

The forces are in Haiti to boost a United Nations-backed security mission led by Kenya that has so far failed to prevent violence from escalating.

Kenya sent nearly 400 police officers in June and July last year to help combat the gangs.

This was the first tranche of a UN-approved international force that will be made up of 2,500 officers from various countries.

A small number of forces from Jamaica, Belize and El Salvador are also in Haiti as part of the mission and the US is the operation's largest funder.

In March 2024, armed gangs stormed Haiti's two biggest prisons, freeing around 3,700 inmates.

The Ouest Department - a region including the capital Port-au-Prince - was originally put under a state of emergency on 3 March, after escalating violence gripped the capital.

Chronic instability, dictatorships and natural disasters in recent decades have left Haiti the poorest nation in the Americas.

In 2021, President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated by unidentified gunmen in Port-au-Prince.

Since then the country has been wracked by economic chaos, little functioning political control and increasingly violent gang warfare.

如果数字的她终有一天取代我:来自南周主播的观察

在过去的一年多,有两个一模一样的主播,在主持南方周末“来说说看”栏目的播报。哪怕是这家报社里的员工,可能也分不清两者的区别。

“有一天,我给我7岁的女儿看数字‘小岚’播报的视频。她说,这个人怎么跟妈妈有点不像。我问,哪儿不像,她就说,眨眼有点奇怪。”

(本文首发于2025年1月2日《南方周末》)

南方周末记者 苏有鹏

责任编辑:吴筱羽

(吴筱羽使用AI工具生成/图)

世界上第一位虚拟新闻女主播的生日是2000年4月19日,新世纪到来不久。她叫安娜诺娃,28岁,略带美国东部口音,创造她的英国报业联会觉得,她对男性和女性将具有同样大的吸引力。不过,在24年之后,这位头发、衣服和瞳孔都是绿色的女士,或许会让人联想到被淘汰的电脑游戏。

风向变成了尽可能的真实和完美。

在过去的一年多,有两个一模一样的主播,在主持南方周末“来说说看”栏目的播报。哪怕是这家报社的员工,可能也分不清两者的区别。她们一位是何京岚,南方周末研究院副秘书长,一个7岁女孩的母亲;另一位是数字“小岚”,她拥有和何京岚完全一样的外貌,是何京岚在一个秋日上午的切片。

数字“小岚”存活在每一个何京岚来不及录制视频的时刻,有时,她还能在互联网上收获不错的反馈。当人们越来越担忧工作是否会被人工智能取代时,何京岚已经有了另一种独特体验:人工智能正在压缩人类获得正反馈的机会。

以下为何京岚的讲述。

跨界主播

我第一次作为主播出现在南方周末的视频号上,是2023年4月13日。当时,北京出台了一项征收集体土地的文件,指出,要将“拆迁”改为“搬迁”。我们就从这个切口出发,做了简单的解读。

我一直在南方周末研究院的秘书处工作,日常工作需要和报社内的各个部门打交道,“主播”是一次跨界尝试。就在那个月,全媒体创意内容部的同事找到我,觉得我普通话还不错,就让我尝试出镜口播。刚开始没有把握,一是没有经过专业的训练,二是对形象不是很自信。她又劝我,说暂时没经费请专业主持来做这个事情,我的领导也支持我试一下。我想,组织都不嫌弃我,我也愿意去做一些尝试,就赶鸭子上架了。

大家有一股想到就干的热情。我记得那天是周五,中午我答应了,晚上就要拍。他们想拍出短视频平台上黑色背景、有采访感的片子,可是我头也没洗,穿着一件很随意的灰格子衬衫就上了。相机是和同事借的,

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欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

Olympic Sprinter Charged in Confrontation With Miami Beach Police

5 January 2025 at 10:11
A lawyer for Fred Kerley, a two-time Olympic medalist, described the police handling of the situation as “an unreasonable use of force.”

© Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times

Fred Kerley won a bronze medal at the 2024 Paris Games.
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