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Today — 4 January 2025News

汇市活跃货币的强与弱:美元恒强?日元续跌?|2025年投资市场展望②

美联储或会放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息进程。与此同时,市场已形成特朗普关税政策即将落地实施的普遍预期。上述因素极有可能推动美元在2025年继续保持升值态势。

针对美元兑人民币和美元兑日元在2025年的走势预判,33 家被调研机构之间存在较为显著的分歧。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员 廖浩伦 实习生 林伊洁

责任编辑:丰雨

2024年,汇率市场呈现“一币独强”格局。

2024年12月31日,美元指数收盘微涨。这一年,美元指数涨幅为7.07%,兑欧元、日元和人民币的汇率则分别涨6.29%、11.58%和2.35%。但开局与终局的趋势并非一致。2024年10月之前,正如南方周末新金融研究中心2024年初所预测,美元指数较年初有所下行。但市场对特朗普当选美国总统预期升温后,美元快速走强,欧元、日元和人民币汇率相应进入贬值通道。

作为全球主要活跃货币,2025年美元是否恒强?日元是否依旧疲弱?欧元和人民币又将如何走向?

为深度分析美元、欧元、日元和人民币四大活跃货币的未来走势及影响因素,南方周末新金融研究中心对比研究了33家中外知名投资机构或研究中心的2025年展望报告。研究发现,上述机构主流观点倾向认为,2025年,美联储或会放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息进程。与此同时,市场已形成特朗普关税政策即将落地实施的普遍预期。上述因素极有可能推动美元在 2025年继续保持升值态势。

与之相对应,欧元兑美元汇率交易区间或将下探至1附近波动。但值得一提的是,针对美元兑人民币和美元兑日元在2025年的走势预判,33家机构之间存在较为显著的分歧。

美元走势超预期

回溯2024年全球宏观经济事件,机构此前针对欧洲央行降息时机、美联储降息节点、日本央行取消收益率曲线控制(YCC)政策和日本央行停止加息举措所做出的各项预测,均精准地在现实中得到了验证(相关预测详见《四大活跃货币将如何此升彼降?丨2024年投资市场展望③》,实际情况详见下图)。

尽管机构对全球宏观政策的预期较为精准,但主要活跃货币11月和12月的走势与机构年初的预期出现了较大偏差。究其原因,在2024年11月6日美国大选结果揭晓之后,市场对于美元持续走强形成了一致性判断。美元走强,欧元、日元和人民币随即进入贬值通道(详见下图)。与此同时,美国二三季度实际GDP年化季率终值分别为2.8%和3.1%,超过市场普遍预期的2%和2.8%。

关税对汇率影响或降低

为何特朗普当选如此影响主要活跃货币的走势?

南方周末新金融研究中心为此统计研究33家机构的报告,这些机构包含18家全球知名投行、10家证券公司、4家期货公司和1家基金公司及前述机构旗下全资子公司或研究中心。

上述机构发布的2025年宏观经济展望中均提及特朗普政府或即将落地的关税政策。南方周末新金融研究中心对比研究上述机构研报和其它权威数据发现,关税政策对汇率波动的影响极大。以2018年至2019年美国对中国实施的三轮关税措施与汇率走势为例。自2018年3月23日,美国宣布对500亿美元的中国进口商品加征25%的关税后,人民币随即进入贬值的通道(详见下图)。2019年,美元兑人民币甚至一度“破7”。

基于此,海外知名投行和研究中心普遍认为,在特朗普政府关税政策即将实施的背景下,人民币将在2025年继续贬值。其中,18家海外机构对2025年底美元兑人民币的预测均值为7.55。

较之海外机构,中资机构普遍认为本轮关税政策对人民币汇率的影响或将小于2018年。中金公司在2025年的展望报告中表示,由于2025年的宏观与政策环境和2018年有较大不同,2025年人民币汇率受关税扰动后的贬值压力或小于2018年。中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛则在2024年12月29日的报告中称,特朗普2.0只是部分兑现其关税威胁的概率不低,这将有助于缓解人民币面临的压力。特别是如果2025年中国外贸出口实绩好于预期的话,人民币有望获得支撑。

南方周末新金融研究中心对15家中资机构的研报进行统计分析后发现,大部分机构预测美元兑人民币在2025年内或将保持在7.1到7.35之间波动。

美元或持续走强

除了特朗普政府即将实施的新关税政策,美联储的货币政策亦是各机构2025年展望报告中重点关注的因素。

基于对美国经济韧性的判断,大部分机构预测美联储将在2025年放缓降息步伐。高盛集团首席经济学家Jan Hatzius领导的团队在报告中指出,美联储在降息25个基点后,未来可能会在行动上更加谨慎。

南方周末新金融研究中心通过研究还发现,大部分美联储官员和全球期货市场投资者均给出了放缓降息步伐甚至停止降息的预判。

对比2024年12月和2024年9月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)经济预测点阵图(由美国联邦公开市场委员会发布的显示美联储官员对未来特定时间点联邦基金利率的预测图表)可以发现,在美联储12月18日宣布降息时,美联储官员对于货币政策的预期从“预计2025年降息4次,一次下调25个基点”降至“预计2025年降息2次,一次下调25个基点”(详细分析可见下图)。

与此同时,芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的“美联储观察(FedWatch)”工具(通过对芝加哥商品交易所交易的30天联邦基金期货价格计算美联储降息概率的工具)显示,随着2024年12月18日美联储降息落地,市场对2025年1月和3月美联储维持利率不变的预期概率分别从12月降息落地前的81.57%和40.02%上升至12月降息落地后的92.75%和57.5%。

基于对特朗普关税政策和美联储降息步伐即将放缓的预期,至少20家机构明确预判,2025年,美元汇率中枢将进一步抬升。其中,中金公司认为,2025年,特朗普的政策可能意味着更高的美元汇率中枢;高盛集团预计,美国关税政策将使美元高估值持续更长时间;巴克莱外汇策略师Skylar Montgomery Koning 亦称:随着经济数据强劲,美联储对利率预期的展望正变得更加强硬,从而支撑了美元。2025年,特朗普时代的政策预期将提升通胀,同时投资者和美联储预计降息步伐将放缓,美元有望继续走强。

欧元或将震荡下行

在全市场预期美联储放缓降息步伐的背景下,欧元将如何波动?

在研报中提及欧元趋势的机构基本都给出了一致性的欧元持续震荡或贬值预判。多数被调研机构预判,2025年底,欧元兑美元的汇率预期区间为1至1.08。而2024年12月31日,欧元兑美元汇率为1.04正处在该区间内。

高盛集团在展望报告中指出,市场对欧美政策利率路径的重新定价已对欧元产生影响,预计欧洲央行将从限制性政策转向宽松政策,而美联储政策调整幅度相对较小。这将对欧元兑美元汇率产生下行压力。

中金公司则在展望报告中表示,在市场对欧央行货币政策宽松的预期(降息的节奏和总量)略大于美联储的情形已经充分计价的基础上,2025年早期存在政策预期相对收敛的风险,即市场减少欧央行宽松定价,并增加对美联储宽松预期的定价。但随着时间的推移,特朗普政府的关税等政策或开始扰动经济预期和风险偏好。基于此,他们判断欧元2025年大概率或走出前高后低的行情。

日元预期走势存分歧

与欧元走势较为一致的预期不同,33家机构对日元汇率存有较大分歧。

南方周末新金融研究中心发现,至少5家以上的亚洲投资机构在研报中明确提及日元将在2025年升值,而非欧美投资机构基本认为日元将在该年贬值。不同区域机构之所以呈现两个极端走势的预判,是因为他们对日美利差的走势判断差异。有意思的是,在美联储降息后,部分日本投资机构却改变了当初研报中对日元2025年升值的预判。

以日本瑞穗金融集团(下称“瑞穗”)为例。该机构此前认为,由于2025年美日之间的政策息差和10年期国债收益率差收窄,日元汇率将达到自2023年初以来的最高水平。但在美联储发布最新货币政策预期后,瑞穗立即改变了对美元兑日元的预测。瑞穗策略师Masafumi Yamamoto和Masayoshi Mihara称,目前,在美国经济相对强劲和利率水平较高的背景下,美元可能会保持强势。因此,我们上调了对美元的预测。三井住友保险市场策略师Tsukasa Sugiura亦称,由于美联储的极端鹰派和日本央行的极端鸽派,我们改变了对前景的看法。现在看来,日本央行1月份加息的可能性不大了。

校对:星歌

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Hacker stole unreleased Coldplay and Rexha tracks

4 January 2025 at 00:19
PA Media  Coldplay's Chris Martin performing on stage at Wembley Stadium, north London, in 2022. He has short brown hair and stubble and is holding the microphone up to his mouth with his left hand. His right hand is outstretched. He is wearing a reddish t-shirtPA Media
Coldplay were the headline act at Radio 1's Big Weekend, which was held in Luton in the summer

A cyber hacker has pleaded guilty to stealing unreleased music from artists including British rock band Coldplay and US singer-songwriters Upsahl and Melanie Martinez.

Skylar Dalziel made about £42,000 by selling the tracks online, according to City of London Police.

Prosecutor Richard Partridge said she "selfishly used their music to make money for herself by selling it on the dark web".

The 22-year-old, of Winchester Gardens in Luton, admitted 11 copyright offences at Luton Crown Court and was sentenced to 21 months imprisonment, suspended for 24 months.

Getty Images UPSAHL performing July 31, 2024 in Miami Beach, Florida. Shehas pulled back reddish hair and is wearing a grey and blue jacket, possibly leather. She is seated and playing a guitar, looking slightly over to her right, with a microphone on a stand in front of herGetty Images
The thefts came to light when Sony Music Entertainment discovered that a cloud account owned by Upsahl had been compromised

Det Con Daryl Fryatt, from the force's Police Intellectual Property Crime Unit, said: "Stealing copyrighted material for your own financial gain is illegal.

"It jeopardises the work of artists and the livelihoods of the people who work with them to create and release their music."

The thefts came to light when Sony Music Entertainment discovered a cloud account owned by Upsahl had been compromised and reported it to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) in June 2021.

Forty unreleased tracks had been extracted and were being sold online, police said.

The IFPI and the Recording Industry Association of America identified an account on an online forum selling unreleased music from various artists and that account was linked to Dalziel.

Getty Images Melanie Martinez perform in 2024 in Milan, Italy. She has her arms outstretched with her microphone held in her right hand and is looking up and smiling. She is wearing a pink dress, with short white puffed sleevesGetty Images
Melanie Martinez was among the artists whose work was also hacked

Officers said they arrested Dalziel on 9 January 2023 and seized three drives which contained 291,941 music tracks.

They also found a spreadsheet which showed she had sold tracks to customers and her PayPal and bank accounts revealed she had received £42,049 from April 2021 to January 2023.

Some of this money was transferred to bank accounts in the US and City of London Police said it was working with Homeland Security Investigations to identify the people linked to the accounts.

Dalziel pleaded guilty to 11 counts of making for sale an article without licence of the copyright's owner, one count of transferring criminal property and three counts of acquiring/using/possessing criminal property.

She was also sentenced to 180 hours of unpaid work.

Det Con Fryatt said the sentencing "sends a clear message that we have the ability and tools to locate cyber criminals and hold them to account for their actions".

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One-punch-killer thought victim had made fun of partner at pub karaoke

3 January 2025 at 23:43
South Wales Police Christopher Cooper mugshot. He has grey short hair. South Wales Police
Christopher Cooper had been boasting about the attack taking a single punch, the court heard

A "cowardly" attacker who murdered a 64-year-old man with a single punch outside a pub has been jailed for life with a minimum term of 16 years.

Christopher Cooper, 39, from the Maritime Quarter in Swansea, punched Kelvin Evans, from Gorseinon, Swansea, once to the head.

The judge at Swansea Crown Court told Cooper Mr Evans's life was "senselessly and cruelly extinguished", and he had shown no remorse about the attack from behind outside The Station Hotel in Gorseinon, even boasting about the attack only taking one punch.

Mr Evans's 92-year-old mother Maureen said she looked at her son's picture every morning and night, and in tears told the court of her sadness.

Family Photo Kelvin Evans, pictured smiling and wearing a beige brimmed hat. He has a checked jacket on. Family Photo
Kelvin Evans's family say he was a "wonderful, loving, funny son, brother, uncle and friend"

Cooper and his partner Catherine Francis were at the pub - known locally as "The Gyp" - as were Mr Evans and his partner.

The judge said a perceived slight seemed to have been the trigger for the attack. Cooper had waited for Mr Evans to leave before hitting him.

After the attack in May the victim was immediately knocked unconscious and was taken to hospital, but his condition deteriorated, and he died a month later.

The judge told Cooper it was "a cowardly punch... totally unexpected" and it "would result in real serious injury" when the head would hit a hard surface.

Mr Evans was described by family as a kind man who would help anyone. He loved trips in his camper van Bella, often taking loved ones for days out.

CPS Mugshot of Catherine Francis, who has long dark hair and is wearing a grey top CPS
The Crown Prosecution Service said after the hearing that Catherine Francis was aware of the assault but did not call police

Nephew Mark Jones said: "To lose him to such a cowardly attack has been nothing short of devastating.'"

He said Cooper and Francis' lies were "disrespectful and disturbing".

Cooper had previously admitted manslaughter but denied murder.

Judge Walters said Francis had lied throughout her evidence and shown no remorse.

She was previously convicted of assisting an offender and was sentenced to two years.

The Crown Prosecution Service said after the hearing that Francis was aware of the assault but did not call police.

Analysis of her phone showed she searched for hotels after the attack, and they were both arrested the next day at a service station.

Apple's AI notification falsely claims Littler has already won world darts final

3 January 2025 at 23:20
Getty Images Luke Littler pumping his fist in celebration during the semi-finalGetty Images
Luke Littler does not play in the PDC World Championship final until Friday evening

A news summary from Apple has falsely claimed darts player Luke Littler won the PDC World Championship - before he has even played in the final.

On Friday morning, an iPhone notification based on a news story of Littler winning the semi-final of the PDC World Championship falsely made it appear that the BBC was reporting he had won the whole event.

The BBC previously complained to Apple when the feature generated a false headline about a high-profile alleged murder in the US.

Apple has been contacted for comment.

"It is essential that Apple fixes this problem urgently - as this has happened multiple times," said a BBC spokesperson.

"As the most trusted news media organisation in the world, it is crucial that audiences can trust any information or journalism published in our name and that includes notifications."

Littler, 18, has generated huge excitement in the darts world on his way to the final, which takes place on Friday evening.

Screenshot of iPhone notification, which reads: "Luke Littler won PDC World Championship; South Korean investigators call off arrest attempt; flu cases rising."

Even though the notification appears to be directly from the BBC, it is in fact Apple Intelligence summarising three much longer headlines.

The other two stories in the summary, about the South Korean president and flu cases, were accurately summarised.

Apple Intelligence, which launched in the UK in December 2024, is intended to give users a simple round-up of all the alerts they have missed.

But the firm has run into some trouble since the feature launched, with inaccurate summaries of news stories and other notifications.

It prompted the journalist body Reporters Without Borders (also known as RSF) to call on Apple to axe its AI-powered summaries of news stories.

"The automated production of false information attributed to a media outlet is a blow to the outlet's credibility," said Vincent Berthier, the head of RSF's technology and journalism desk, in December.

He added it was "a danger to the public's right to reliable information on current affairs."

A screenshot of the three original notifications from the BBC News app, with the original headlines for each news story visible.

The latest notification glitch on Littler's semi-final win was received by a BBC News employee.

It is likely that most people's AI-generated summaries would be unique as different combinations of notifications are summarised depending on the device being used and the alerts coming through.

Apple Intelligence is only available on certain iPhones - those using the iOS 18.1 system version or later on recent devices (all iPhone 16 phones, the 15 Pro, and the 15 Pro Max). It is also available on some iPads and Macs.

The grouped notifications are marked with a specific icon, and users can report any concerns they have on a notification summary.

Apple has not outlined how many reports it has received.

Biden blocks Japan's Nippon Steel from buying US Steel

4 January 2025 at 00:21
Getty Images U.S. Steel's Clairton Coke Works rests along the Monongahela River in ClairtonGetty Images

US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.

The controversial decision comes a year after Nippon Steel first announced the $14.9bn (£12bn) deal, describing it as a lifeline for its smaller Pennsylvania-based rival.

But the transaction soon ran into political trouble, after leaders of the United Steelworkers union loudly opposed the deal, bringing political pressure to bear in a key state during the 2024 presidential election.

Biden decided to scrap the deal despite concerns by some advisors that it could damage Washington's relations with Tokyo, a key ally.

BBC News has contacted Nippon Steel and US Steel for comment.

Nippon Steel has previously denied that it planned to reduce production or cut jobs, while US Steel had warned that it might have to close plants without the investment that would come with a new owner.

Those concerns had been echoed by some workers and local politicians.

Other business groups said they feared rejecting the transaction would chill the climate for international investment in the US.

But Biden has voiced longstanding opposition to the deal. The transaction has also been criticised by President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming vice-president, JD Vance.

A US government panel charged with reviewing the deal for national security risks failed to reach a consensus by late December, leaving the decision to Biden, who was required to act within a 15-day deadline.

In his announcement on Friday he said maintaining US ownership was important to keeping the US steel industry and it supply chains strong.

"As I have said many times, steel production - and the steel workers who produce it - are the backbone of our nation," he said.

"That is because steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base. Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure."

Nippon Steel and US Steel have previously suggested they may pursue legal action against the government if the deal did not happen.

Prof Stephen Nagy, of the Department of Politics International Studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said this was a "political" decision, noting that the Biden administration from its start promised a "foreign policy for the middle class".

"This was a direct response and continuation of the Trump MAGA agenda of Making America Great Again," he said.

"The Biden administration couldn't appear weak on foreign businesses, whether it's an ally or adversary."

Does Ally Pally immortality await Luke Littler in World Darts Championship final?

3 January 2025 at 14:50

Teenager Littler aims for Ally Pally immortality

Luke Littler walks through crowdsImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Littler has become darts' biggest draw since making his PDC World Championship debut last year

In one home video clip, the boy throwing the darts is wearing a nappy.

In another, a highchair leans against the wall as he slams them home.

In a third, at an age where most children can barely conceive of double digits, the toddler wanders to the camera and gleefully shouts "one hundred and eighty".

The height of the board changes, the oche edges back, magnet tips switch to tungsten, but the easy action of Luke Littler, which will grace tonight's World Championship final, is a constant.

In football, 'Project Mbappe' has been used to describe the perfect storm conditions that propelled football star Kylian Mbappe from the Paris suburbs to the brink of greatness while he was still a teenager.

Littler is the first prodigy whose total arrows immersion has been documented in real time. His steps have followed a pre-plotted route to the Alexandra Palace stage since he first started walking.

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Media caption,

Watch: Luke Littler plays darts as a toddler in home video footage

Last year, aged just 16, he arrived.

He came into the World Championships as a 66-1 debutant, carved his way through the draw, accumulating followers, raising decibels and spilling out into the mainstream.

It took the world number one - Luke Humphries – to halt the hype train, beating Littler in the final at the cavernous north London venue.

But it was Littler on the chat show sofas alongside Hollywood stars, Littler on the front of kids' darts sets under the Christmas tree, Littler streaking through the earth's upper atmosphere as part of a gaming console advert.

Online, he was searched for more than the King or the Prime Minister.

On television, last year's PDC final was the most-watched sports event, outside football, in Sky Sports' 34-year history., external

Humphries, who won it, has joked about people discovering mid-conversation with him that they are talking to the "wrong Luke".

For Littler things have kept going right.

A boy born to the board, he has been relentless and ruthless, somehow finding the calm at the centre of the storm around him.

His game continued down those familiar childhood grooves, undisturbed by the commotion and celebrity.

The backdrop may be a fancy-dress cast of thousands, but Littler kept chucking as easy as the kid back in his Warrington living room.

A fortnight after his final defeat, he claimed his first televised nine-dart finish. He took revenge on Humphries in the Premier League Darts final in May. In total, he won 10 titles in 2024, rising to fourth in the world.

However, this visit to Ally Pally has been different.

Perhaps it is the circularity of it.

Twelve months ago, he was an unknown. This time, the attention is immediate, and the pressure is inescapable. Now, the upsets are his to suffer, rather than to inflict.

He is approaching the ceiling, bumping up against the biggest names, battling for the biggest prize, as an equal rather than a newcomer.

So soon into his career, he is entering a new era. And the air is different up here.

"I have never felt anything like that," he said after winning the opening match of his campaign against Ryan Meikle.

Admitting to nerves during the match, he said: "It is probably the biggest time it's hit me. Coming into it I was fine, but as soon as [referee] George Noble said 'game on', I couldn't throw them.

"It has been a lot to deal with."

It was, Littler said, "the worst game I have played". That he clocked a tournament record three-dart average of 140.91 in an electrifying, 31-dart, three-leg, fourth set during it shows his sky-high standards.

Still, Littler, choking up, had to cut short his on-stage interview, seeking out his family for a hug.

Luke Littler hugs his familyImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Littler sought out his family in the crowd after a misfiring performance in his world championship opener against Ryan Meikle

'The Nuke' wasn't in meltdown, but neither was he at his best.

His check-out accuracy was off. Doubles were elusive. He wobbled in the last 16, edging past unseeded Ryan Joyce 4-3.

But, when it has mattered, Littler plucked precision from the quiver.

Worryingly for the opposition, he has started to find his happy place too.

"I'll be honest, no nerves," he said after his quarter-final victory, a 5-2 walloping of Nathan Aspinall.

"I'm playing with absolute confidence, with freedom."

Stephen Bunting was barely a semi-final speedbump for Littler's steamrolling momentum. He averaged 105.48, his highest of this year's competition, in a 6-1 thrashing of the world number five.

Now, Michael van Gerwen stands between Littler and dart's biggest prize, complete with a £500,000 pay day.

The Dutchman is the youngest PDC world champion to date, having won the title as a 24-year-old in 2014.

That period was defined by the Van Gerwen's titanic, torch-passing tussles with Phil Taylor, a rivalry that super-charged darts' rise and saw him claim three world titles.

Littler is the beneficiary, but has added another story to the edifice.

He is already, by some distance, the best-known darts player in the world. Will he now be the best player?

Related topics

西藏水电工程引争议 印度敦促中国保障下游利益

By: 唐缘媛
4 January 2025 at 01:59

印度外交部本周五表示,新德里已向北京表达了对中国计划在西藏雅鲁藏布江上游修建水电站的关切。雅鲁藏布江在流入印度后还流向孟加拉国,尽管中国官方宣称该水电项目不会对环境或下游水资源造成危害,但位处下游的印度和孟加拉等国仍对此感到担忧。

综合国际媒体报道,印度外交部发言人兰迪尔·贾伊斯瓦尔(Randhir Jaiswal)1月3日在例行记者会上表示,印度已敦促中方确保其在雅鲁藏布江上游地区的活动不损害布拉马普特拉河(雅鲁藏布江流入印度后的称谓)下游国家的利益。印方将继续密切监测局势,并在必要时采取措施,保护自身利益。他强调,相关项目的建设应保持透明,并与下游国家进行充分磋商。

法新社披露,西藏上述水电站项目在上个月获得中国政府批准,该项目与北京的碳中和目标以及西藏地区的经济发展目标高度关联。一旦建成后,该项目预计年发电量将达3000亿千瓦,并将成为全球最大的此类工程。虽然中国官方声称该项目能开发清洁能源、应对气候变化,同时不会对下游造成负面影响,但除了下游国家对该项目高度关切外,环保人士在过去也曾警告,此类大型工程可能对生态敏感的青藏高原造成不可逆转的冲击。

据路透社报道,贾伊斯瓦尔同时还在记者会上提到,印度近期针对中国设立两个新县的举措向北京提出了“严正抗议”,其中一个县涵盖了印度声称拥有主权的争议地区。贾伊斯瓦尔强调,中方此举既不会改变印度对该地区主权的长期立场,也不会为中国对该地的非法主张提供任何合法性。

中印两国在喜马拉雅山附近的边境问题上长期存在紧张关系。不过,双方于去年10月就对峙点撤军达成共识,缓解了冲突。上个月,两国官员在过去5年来首次举行正式会谈,并同意采取小幅措施以改善双边关系。

责编:何平 网编:洪伟

© 法新社图片

在西藏修建的一座水电站

回应中国黑客攻击 美国制裁北京一网络安全公司

By: 唐缘媛
4 January 2025 at 01:50

1月3日,美国国务院发布新闻稿宣布,将对位于北京的网络安全公司永信至诚科技集团实施制裁。原因是该公司与中国国家安全部存在关联,并多次参与针对美国的黑客攻击活动。

美国国务院指出,永信至诚雇佣的黑客组织被外界称为“亚麻台风”(Flax Typhoon)。该组织在中国政府的指挥下,针对美国及其他国家的关键基础设施发动网络攻击,其目标包括外国企业、大学、政府机构、电信供应商以及媒体机构等。去年9月,美国司法部经法院授权采取行动,成功摧毁了由永信至诚渗透并控制的一个由全球超过20万台设备组成的僵尸网络。

新闻稿强调,美国将继续致力于防御来自中国的网络威胁,并采取一切可用手段,以保护美国的关键基础设施和人民免受不负责任的网络攻击侵害。

责编:何平;网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

永信至诚雇佣的黑客组织被外界称为“亚麻台风”(Flax Typhoon)

US top doctor calls for cancer warnings on alcohol

3 January 2025 at 23:35
Getty Images Two glasses of red wineGetty Images

America's top doctor has called for risk warnings on alcoholic beverages, similar to the labels on cigarettes, following new research that links the drinks to seven types of cancer.

The advisory from US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy says the "majority of Americans are unaware of this risk" that leads to about 100,000 cases of cancer and 20,000 deaths annually in the US.

It would require an act of Congress to change the existing warning labels, which have not been updated since 1988.

Mr Murthy has also called for reassessing recommended limits for alcohol consumption and boosting education efforts regarding alcoholic drinks and cancer.

The Surgeon General, who is the leading spokesperson on matters of public health in the federal government, said that alcohol was the third most common preventable cause of cancer after tobacco and obesity.

"The direct link between alcohol consumption and cancer risk is well-established for at least seven types of cancer ...regardless of the type of alcohol (e.g., beer, wine, and spirits) that is consumed," Mr Murthy said in a statement.

This includes increased risk of throat, liver, throat, oesophageal, mouth, larynx and colon cancers.

The new report recommends health care providers should encourage alcohol screening and treatment referrals as needed, and efforts to increase general awareness should be expanded.

The warning labels are currently required to state that women who are pregnant should not drink alcohol due to birth defect risks. It also must state that "consumption of alcoholic beverages impairs your ability to drive a car or operate machinery, and may cause health problems".

Share prices of US-listed alcoholic beverage companies - including Diageo, the world's biggest spirits manufacturer - fell by up to 4% following the announcement.

Biden blocks Japan's Nippon Steel from buying US Steel

4 January 2025 at 00:21
Getty Images U.S. Steel's Clairton Coke Works rests along the Monongahela River in ClairtonGetty Images

US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.

The controversial decision comes a year after Nippon Steel first announced the $14.9bn (£12bn) deal, describing it as a lifeline for its smaller Pennsylvania-based rival.

But the transaction soon ran into political trouble, after leaders of the United Steelworkers union loudly opposed the deal, bringing political pressure to bear in a key state during the 2024 presidential election.

Biden decided to scrap the deal despite concerns by some advisors that it could damage Washington's relations with Tokyo, a key ally.

BBC News has contacted Nippon Steel and US Steel for comment.

Nippon Steel has previously denied that it planned to reduce production or cut jobs, while US Steel had warned that it might have to close plants without the investment that would come with a new owner.

Those concerns had been echoed by some workers and local politicians.

Other business groups said they feared rejecting the transaction would chill the climate for international investment in the US.

But Biden has voiced longstanding opposition to the deal. The transaction has also been criticised by President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming vice-president, JD Vance.

A US government panel charged with reviewing the deal for national security risks failed to reach a consensus by late December, leaving the decision to Biden, who was required to act within a 15-day deadline.

In his announcement on Friday he said maintaining US ownership was important to keeping the US steel industry and it supply chains strong.

"As I have said many times, steel production - and the steel workers who produce it - are the backbone of our nation," he said.

"That is because steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base. Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure."

Nippon Steel and US Steel have previously suggested they may pursue legal action against the government if the deal did not happen.

Prof Stephen Nagy, of the Department of Politics International Studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said this was a "political" decision, noting that the Biden administration from its start promised a "foreign policy for the middle class".

"This was a direct response and continuation of the Trump MAGA agenda of Making America Great Again," he said.

"The Biden administration couldn't appear weak on foreign businesses, whether it's an ally or adversary."

Ford and General Motors Report a Sales Surge, Especially for E.V.s

4 January 2025 at 01:40
The two big automakers said 2024 sales were up by 4 percent thanks to big increases in the final quarter.

© Scott Olson/Getty Images

Ford Mustang Mach-E electric vehicles for sale. E.V.s attracted increased demand in the final quarter of 2024.

台湾议员具中国籍遭解职 五名里长惹争议

台湾公职人员同时拥有中国国籍的问题,近日引发台湾社会高度关注。一名中国大陆配偶当选台湾议员后,因未放弃中国籍而遭到解职,而另有5名台湾里长也被发现拥有中国籍。

嫁到台湾的中国大陆籍配偶史雪燕2021年当选并递补为南投县议员,2022年九合一选举连任失利。去年12月,她被台湾的内政部指控违反《国籍法》,被解除议员公职资格。

史雪燕日前在国民党籍立委陪同下召开记者会,抨击民进党政府“政治操作”、操弄“两国论”议题。史雪燕自称她当选议员后,并未接到任何要求补交放弃国籍证明的通知,对接获解职处分感到错愕,已依法提起行政诉讼捍卫权益,希望以此也为全台陆配争取参政权。

台湾内政部表示,史雪燕在当选后,依规定应于一年内放弃中华人民共和国国籍,但查出她未在期限内完成程序,失去民选公职资格。内政部已函文南投县议会,要求追讨她在任期间相关费用,包括薪资与研究费。

史雪燕自称,曾在2007年提供放弃中国户籍的公证书。但内政部指出,“户籍”与“国籍”是不同的法律概念,仅注销中国户籍并不等于放弃国籍。此事涉及《国籍法》、《户籍法》与《两岸人民关系条例》,陆配在享受台湾福利的同时,必须遵守国籍规范。

此外,台湾的内政部长刘世芳日前指出,另有5名里长具中华人民共和国国籍。内政部已去函各相关区公所,应按照《国籍法》或《户籍法》规定办理,若未能完成,此5人也将面临解职处分。

刘世芳另提到,网红八炯、陈柏源《中国统战手法》纪录片中,有关自称代办中国身份证的林金城和出示拥有中国身份证的苏士恩,内政部已要求此两名台湾人在10天内提出说明,否则将废止其台湾身份证。

台湾人申领中国身份证 陆委会:过去10年注销679人

台湾主管两岸事务的大陆委员会发言人梁文杰指出,《两岸人民关系条例》第九条之一规定,台湾人不得在中国设户籍或领中国护照,违反可取消台湾户籍、身份证、护照等。台湾方面统计,过去10年已注销679人。

国民党立法院团质疑政府剥夺30万陆配参政权,是违宪硬干“新两国论”。国民党籍立委翁晓玲声称,所有“大陆地区人民”就是“中华民国”的国民。梁文杰驳斥说,解除公职无关“两国论”。

民进党立法院党团干事长吴思瑶表示,放弃户籍不等于放弃国籍,国民党团不要带头偷换概念,勿借机偷渡双证、偷渡一中的概念。

责编:陈美华、何平 网编:洪伟

© 路透社图片

棋子与中国国旗及台湾旗帜

人权律师余文生被控“煽颠”案二审即将宣判

By: 唐缘媛
4 January 2025 at 01:04

据维权网1月3日发布的消息,中国知名人权律师余文生被控“煽动颠覆国家政权”的案件二审,将在1月6日上午9点30分于苏州市中级法院宣判。

本台此前报道,余文生与他的妻子许艳在2023年4月受邀会见欧盟访华代表团,却在前往欧盟驻北京代表处途中被警方拦截。俩人后被警方以“寻衅滋事”和“煽动颠覆国家政权”等罪名拘捕。2024年10月,余文生被法院判刑3年,许艳被判刑1年9个月。而在庭审期间,德国、美国等10多名西方驻华使馆外交官到场要求旁听都被拒绝。针对这一判决结果,余文生提出了上诉,而许艳则预计将于今年1月12日刑满获释。

余文生是中国知名的人权律师,曾代理多起法轮功学员及“709大抓捕”中被捕的维权律师案件。他因积极倡导宪法改革而受到当局打压,曾于2018年1月被捕,后被判刑4年,直至2022年3月刑满释放。

责编:何平;网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

余文生与他的妻子许艳在前往欧盟驻北京代表处途中被警方拦截。

民进党: 台湾人办中国身份证恐遭长臂管辖

台湾网红八炯、陈柏源近日揭露逾10万台湾人可能申办中华人民共和国身份证后,台湾的总统赖清德元旦讲话示警“免钱的最贵”。本周五,台湾执政的民进党召开记者会,提醒台湾民众一旦拥有中国身份证恐遭长臂管辖,甚至成为中国攻台的借口。

民进党1月3日召开“免钱的最贵,小心‘中国陷阱卡’”记者会。民进党中国部主任吴峻鋕指出,中国领导人习近平的有关“两岸一家亲”政策,自2018年以来就推出所谓给予台湾同胞同等待遇、对台31条政策,核发卡式台胞证、台湾居民居住证、中国居民身份证等“三证”。有专家认为,中国可能仿效俄乌战争模式,把许多台湾人变成中国人之后,作为攻台借口。

民进党中国部主任吴峻鋕
民进党中国部主任吴峻鋕
(记者夏小华摄)

吴峻鋕指出,卡式“台湾居民来往大陆通行证”(俗称台胞证)、“台湾居民居住证”都有芯片,一刷就被全球定位,有个资(个人基本资料)外泄、国安疑虑。中方利用实名制、公民身份证资料库,监控在中国的台湾人。去年海峡论坛期间,中方力推申办“台湾居民身份证”卡,向国民党籍县市长招手。

吴峻鋕说:“办居住证需要照片、按指纹,个资、生物资料都让中国掌握,跟中国身份证相似度很高,把台湾‘内国化’,具有被中国纳入人脸辨识系统‘天眼’监控风险。”

【民进党示警申办中国居住证身分证】
【恐遭中共长臂管辖 甚至成为中国攻台借口】
台湾网红八炯、陈柏源近日揭露逾10万台湾人可能已申办中华人民共和国身分证,台湾的总统赖清德元旦讲话示警“免钱的最贵”。执政的民进党召开记者会提醒台湾人一旦拥有中国身分证,恐遭长臂管辖,甚至成为中国攻台借口。 pic.twitter.com/48yShwPFar

— 自由亚洲电台 (@RFA_Chinese) January 3, 2025

吴峻鋕提到,今年马祖连江县政府居然帮福建宣传“福马同城通”交通卡,去年中国举办陆军官校活动,台湾的陆官校友们落地中国马上被带去办银行卡、电话卡、驾驶卡、敬老卡等,还须填写家庭资料、紧急联络人等,看似提供消费优惠,却陷入个资外泄危机。

民进党籍立法委员王义川在会中指出,从八炯、陈柏源拍摄的中国统战纪录片可见,现在台湾人不用去中国就可申办各种中国证件,例如台胞证、居住证、中国身份证都可以代办,本人只需在领卡时出现就可以了。

王义川提到,台湾很多里长、理事长、宫庙组团邀民众到中国游览,使用的话术就是办卡不用钱,办一张没什么差别,而且在中国坐高铁须有卡、有证件,取票方便。台湾的宪法保障人民有移动、迁徙自由,在中国随时被掌控。

民进党3日召开“免钱的最贵,小心‘中国陷阱卡’”记者会。
民进党3日召开“免钱的最贵,小心‘中国陷阱卡’”记者会。
(记者夏小华摄)

绿委忧中共恐片面宣布领证台湾人具中国身份

吴峻鋕强调,依照台湾的《两岸人民关系条例》,当事人不得有双重户籍,一旦取得中国身份证就丧失台湾人身份。

王义川示警:“会不会有一天办了居住证,中国政府直接宣布等同身份证,你就变中国人,就有双重国籍?丧失台湾的身份和所有权利?会不会有一天,中国政府以保护中国人民的名义,要求你在台湾做什么?你有中国人身份无法拒绝。”

王义川反问,为何台湾里长带人去中国玩,鼓吹台湾里民都去办卡?是不是有业绩考量?中国接头的是不是也有业绩压力?你去旅游办卡,回台湾在社群媒体批评中国政府、骂习近平,未来去香港、澳门,或跟中国有签引渡条约的国家,会否被抓?他提醒台湾人千万要小心,到中国不要随便乱办卡。

绿委呼吁台湾政府要求民意代表自清未领中国身份证

王义川表示,他向台湾政府建言,应彻查台湾民意代表哪些已有中华人民共和国身份证,这些人起码须自清。

王义川说:“民意代表至少要签结:我没有中华人民共和国身份证和台湾居民居住证。我一提此建议,立法院很多立委讲话开始眼睛飘移、吞吞吐吐,声称这不值得回应,开始闪躲。试问:中华民国的民意代表可以拥有敌国、中国的身份证、台湾居民居住证,这通吗?”

民进党发言人吴峥表示,舆论关注中国籍配偶在台参政是否违反“双重国籍”?是否对国家有忠诚度?有无国安疑虑?台湾政府很难清查多少台湾人在中国办了居住证、身份证,个资进入中国当局手中如同掉进黑洞,中国单方面认定就能借司法进行政治清算。

吴峥提到,中国跨境镇压长臂管辖案例层出不穷,日媒最近才披露有日本人因在日本国内的言行,竟遭中国判间谍罪。

责编:陈美华、何平 网编:洪伟

© 记者夏小华摄

民进党3日召开“免钱的最贵,小心‘中国陷阱卡’”记者会。中国事务部主任吴峻鋕(左)、民进党籍立委王义川(中)、民进四发言人吴峥(右)。

Do You Believe in Life After Death? These Scientists Study It.

4 January 2025 at 00:00
Is reincarnation real? Is communication from the “beyond” possible? A small set of academics are trying to find out, case by case.

© Matt Eich for The New York Times

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies is one of the most prominent parapsychology research units in the world.

Awaiting Sentencing, Menendez Pleads for Leniency and Blames His Wife

4 January 2025 at 00:32
As they did during his trial, lawyers for the former senator argued in a court filing that he had been led astray by his wife, Nadine Menendez.

© Jefferson Siegel for The New York Times

Former Senator Robert Menendez faces sentencing and a possible prison term after his conviction on corruption charges.

人类命运共同体研究中心揭牌 分析:中国试图争夺国际主导权

1月2日,中国外长王毅在北京为新成立的人类命运共同体研究中心揭牌。王毅说,构建人类命运共同体是中共总书记习近平提出的重大原创性思想。有分析认为,中国意图在世界领域争夺主导权,以取代二战后的国际秩序。

新华社报道,王毅在揭牌时指出,构建人类命运共同体是习近平外交思想的核心理念,是对“建设一个什么样的世界、如何建设这个世界”这一时代课题给出的中国答案。他宣称,目前已有数十个国家和地区同中国一道,建设起不同形式的命运共同体,相关内容还多次写入联大决议和多边文件。

“中国以为现在第二大经济体,能跟美国并驾齐驱的超级大国,所以要在国际上争夺跟美国的话语权,因此提出所谓人类命运共同体的想法,它是想兜售中国模式。”时事评论人士、本台特约评论员陈破空就此表示。

中国提议共建“命运共同体” 多国不买单

陈破空进一步指出,所谓的“中国模式”就是一党专政,就是所谓的集体主义或举国体制、威权统治,但这些内容在国际社会被接受的程度有限。他以东盟国家为例,中国想向越南兜售这概念,提出共建“中越命运共同体”,但是越南的表述是“越中未来共享共同体”,未来是不确定的,最后沦为各自表述;最后,只有老挝、柬埔寨这些接受中国经济援助的国家与中国签订相关文件。陈破空表示,中国不管在东盟、金砖峰会、一带一路峰会兜售这一概念都失败了,更遑论美国、欧洲、西方国家不能接受。

“这就是习近平的自说自话、指手画脚,以为他会为世界发展指明方向,其实是一厢情愿,”陈破空说。

2023年12月12日,中国国家主席习近平和越南共产党总书记阮富仲在河内观看越南共产党中央办公厅展示的签署协议。中越双方宣布,将携手构建
2023年12月12日,中国国家主席习近平和越南共产党总书记阮富仲在河内观看越南共产党中央办公厅展示的签署协议。中越双方宣布,将携手构建"命运共同体"。
(美联社图片)

巩固习近平个人崇拜地位

在美国纽约的海外政论刊物《北京之春》荣誉主编胡平接受本台访问时指出,现在的中国共产党已不再重复其传统的“全世界无产阶级联合起来”、“全人类走向共产主义”等口号,而是转向“与各国和平友好”的空洞话语,但这些缺乏实质内容。中国传统的天下观曾以为自身为文明中心,视世界其他国家为野蛮之地,直到李鸿章提出“三千年未有之大变局”,中国传统的天下观才彻底改变。胡平表示,近代中国一些学者帮中共谋划“王道”取代“霸道”的国际观,主张天下一家、人类民族共同体,强调中国与西方“帝国主义”、资本主义的不同,提出“天下一家”和“人类命运共同体”等理念。

胡平说,习近平已被塑造成“伟大领袖”,成立形形色色以习近平思想为首的研究中心,包括习近平外交思想研究中心、习近平经济思想研究中心、习近平文化思想研究中心等,都是在进一步巩固其个人崇拜地位:“中国外交思想又搞一个人类命运共同体,就是神化习近平的表现,等于是给这个人再修个庙,至于庙里有何内涵不重要。”

人类共同体抗衡西方自由民主世界

“人类命运共同体”的概念是2013年3月,习近平在出访俄罗斯提出的。近年来,中国不断在国际推销“三大全球倡议”,鼓吹要建构“一个共同繁荣、开放包容、清洁美丽的世界。”这样的倡议不禁令人联想,中国是否有意重新建构一个由中国主导的“共产国际”,对抗西方世界?

陈破空直指,中共一直有此企图,“共产国际”最早是由苏联主导,中共是受第三国际领导的所谓远东支部。后来在毛泽东时代,中共与苏联翻脸,与苏共争夺话语权,中共提出毛泽东思想、红太阳万丈光芒照遍全世界、解放全人类等,但毛泽东晚期承认宣传失败。改革开放后,邓小平提出“韬光养晦”,乃至到胡温时代在国际间已少提出大而空的想法。

陈破空说:“到习近平时代又开始个人野心膨胀,所以提出人类命运共同体的说法。他以为提出后可以跟世界争夺话语权。从他2013年提出至今已经11个年头,事实证明是失败的。”

胡平表示,中国共产党在海外已经吃不开,传统的马列主义与毛泽东思想难以被接受,改以“孔子学院”为名推动海外“办学”,但共产党本质上并未真正尊崇孔子思想。中共明白共产党传统话语已经破产,招牌口号“全世界无产者联合起来,进行共产革命”已不再提及,因为只会招致反感。

“中共强调‘人类命运共同体’,意图拉拢其他国家,与自由民主国家对抗,以争夺国际关系的主导权。中国模式实质上是一种与普世价值对立的极权专制统治,试图建立以专制政权为核心的国际新秩序,取代二战后的国际秩序,”他说。

胡平总结说,中共试图以新的中国方式塑造其国际形象,但内核仍是与现有普世价值和国际秩序的针锋相对,试图构建更符合自身利益的全球格局。

责编:陈美华、何平 网编:洪伟

© 中国外交部官网截图

2025年1月2日,中国外长王毅在北京为人类命运共同体研究中心揭牌。

习近平的新年谈话透露什么信息? | 亚洲很想聊

#习近平 在2025年的新年谈话中说中国“经济回暖向好”,坦承“当前经济运行面临一些 #新情况”,他认为有外部环境不确定性的挑战,有新旧动能转换的压力,但这些经过努力是可以克服的。本期 #亚洲很想聊 解读习近平的新年谈话。
自媒体人 #五岳散人说,中共官员素质不差,只是习近平学不会,习近平的经济学是“胎教肄业”。
政治大学国际关系中心资深研究员 #宋国诚 说这种应景的节庆谈话可喻为中共的广告时间,习近平谈话表现出“自我感动的低调、了无新意的沉闷感、软弱无力的底气、欲振乏力的信心”。

习近平的新年谈话透露什么信息?

© 自由亚洲电台制图

习近平的新年谈话透露什么信息?(戴忠仁/上官乱/五岳散人/宋国诚)

Will Matt Gaetz Participate in the House Speaker Vote?

3 January 2025 at 23:17
The Florida Republican, who resigned his House seat during his short-lived bid for attorney general, has publicly flirted with the idea of showing up in Congress on Friday.

© Anna Watts for The New York Times

Former Representative Matt Gaetz resigned from the House in December after President-elect Donald J. Trump picked him for attorney general. He was later dropped from consideration.

New Orleans Was Called Resilient After Attack. It Didn’t Need the Reminder.

The city was seeing glimmers of optimism for what the new year might bring before the horrendous attack on the French Quarter.

© Emily Kask for The New York Times

Many in New Orleans have expressed a certain comfort and satisfaction at the strength of the community’s bond and its collective ability to navigate disaster and hardship.

美国考虑对中国无人机实施新限制 北京抨击

3 January 2025 at 23:47

2025-01-03T15:17:27.857Z
中国江西一家出口无人机的工厂(2024年11月)

(德国之声中文网)周四(1月2日),美国商务部表示,正在考虑制定新规则,以应对使用中国和俄罗斯等外国对手技术制造的无人机带来的风险。

这意味着,美国或对主导全球市场的中国无人机进行限制或禁止。

周五,在回答记者相关提问时,中国外交部发言人毛宁指责美国“泛化国家安全概念,干涉和限制正常经贸交流,破坏全球生产和供应链的安全稳定”。

“我们将采取一切必要措施,坚决维护我们的合法权益,”她说道。

美国商务部正在就这一可能的新规则征求公众反馈,截止日期为3月4日。这意味着决定权将落在即将上任的当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府手中。

商务部警告,中国设计的技术可能使其“能够远程访问和操纵”无人机,这可能“对美国国家安全造成过度或不可接受的风险”。

2022年,华盛顿将中国无人机制造商大疆认定为 “中国军工公司”。去年10月,这家全球最大的无人机制造商表示,该公司将起诉美国国防部

“大疆不属于或受制于中国军方……是一家私营公司,不应被错误地归类为军工公司”,该公司当时表示。

近年来,大疆引起了华盛顿的注意,包括其涉嫌在中国监控少数民族方面所扮演的角色。

9月,华盛顿以国家安全风险为由,禁止销售采用中国和俄罗斯技术的联网汽车。

法新社)

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

俄罗斯大使:德日两国永远不能“入常”

3 January 2025 at 23:47
德正
2025-01-03T15:22:58.119Z
俄罗斯常驻联合国代表涅边贾:德日两国永远无法“入常”。(资料图)

(德国之声中文网)长期以来,德国一直在努力推动联合国安理会的改革,并希望能够在扩编后的安理会中拥有常任理事国席位,但莫斯科对此却持明确的反对立场。俄罗斯驻联合国代表涅边贾(Wassilij Nebensja)日前接受俄罗斯官方电视台采访时明确表示,无论有些国家如何努力,都永远不可能成为安理会常任理事国,“我们已经明确表示,他们永远不会获得这个席位。尤其是德国和日本。” 

 多年以来,联合国内部一直在就改革安理会问题进行讨论。期望在安理会中获得常任席位的国家包括日本、印度和一些非洲国家,而多年以来,德国联邦政府也一直在为“入常”进行着努力。曾几何时,俄罗斯曾被视作是德国入常的可能支持者,然而,俄罗斯总统下令对乌克兰发动侵略战争之后,过去几年来,俄罗斯同西方的紧张关系一直在不断加剧

多年来,德国、日本、印度以及非洲国家一直在努力推动联合国安理会进行改革。

有鉴于此,德国的“入常”希望已经变得非常渺茫。安理会拥有五个常任理事国,分别为中国、法国、英国、俄罗斯和美国,而上述五国中的任何一国都有权对安理会扩编改革行使否决权。 

(德新社)

©2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。

反击美国 中国公布对数十家美企出口管制

3 January 2025 at 23:47

2025-01-03T15:33:10.103Z
中方将多家涉及国防工业的美国实体列入出口管制名单, 禁止對其出口「两用物项」

(德国之声中文网)中国商务部周四(1月2日)表示,为了 「维护国家安全和利益」,中方决定将28家美国实体列入出口管制名单。该份公告指出,即日起禁止向名单上的美国实体出口「两用物项」,正在开展的相关出口活动应当立即停止。若特殊情况下确需出口,则出口经营者应当向商务部提出申请。

根据中国政府去年10月颁布的《两用物项出口管制条例》,两用物项指的是兼具民事与军事用途,或者有助于提升军事潜力的货物、技术和服务,包括相关的技术资料等数据。

名单上的美国企业多涉及国防工业,包括通用动力公司(General Dynamics)、波音防务(Boeing Defense, Space & Security)、洛克希德·马丁公司(Lockheed Martin)和雷神导弹与防务公司(Raytheon Missiles & Defense)等。

涉台军售企业被列入「不可靠清单」

此外,洛克希德·马丁、雷神导弹以及通用动力信息技术等10家美国企业还在同一天被中国商务部列入「不可靠实体清单」。商务部公告称,这些公司涉及「参与对台湾地区军售」。被点名的企业禁止从事与中国有关的进出口活动且禁止在中国境内新增投资;其高级管理人员禁止入境中国;取消或不批准上述企业高级管理人员在中国境内工作许可、停留或者居留资格。

中国商务部公布的这些新规定被视为对美国制裁中国企业的反击。近几年,美国政府以国家安全和企业利益为由,推出了一系列针对中国科技企业的制裁措施,禁止向中国出口先进半导体芯片与制造技术、设备等。自俄乌战争以来,也以涉俄、涉及中国军方为由将多家中国公司列入贸易限制名单

相关图集:那些年,台湾从美国采购的先进武器

一周之内两度军售:10月26日,华盛顿方面公布2020年内第四波对台军售案,表示美国国务院已核准将100枚鱼叉反舰飞弹出售给台湾。据台湾中央社报道,这笔军售交易总额高达23.7亿美元。鱼叉海岸防御系统(HCDS)射程在200到300公里之间,可对沿岸、港湾以及陆上目标实施打击,符合台湾近年机动、不对称战力的诉求。这是也是美国总统特朗普上任以来的第九个对台军售案。
40余年,上百次对台军售案:美国向台湾出售武器,源于1979年美国与台北断交,转而与北京建交之后,制定的《台湾关系法》。在撤离驻台美军之后,美国开始依照该法律为台湾提供防御性军武。根据1982年时任总统罗纳德·里根建立的备忘录,美国对台提供武器之性能与数量“视中共所构成之威胁而定”。
具有标志性意义的F16战机:在数十年的历次对台军售案当中,最为引人注目的先进武器之一莫过于美国的F16战斗机。这是由洛克希德·马丁公司研制的轻型战斗机,在战机世代上归类于第四代战斗机,同时也是第四代战机中产量最高的机种。台北方面从70年代就开始要求向美国采购这种先进战机,但是直到90年代才得以达成交易。1997年,台湾采购的首批F16战机进行交付。之后该系列战机又经历了多次升级和换装,美方提供的飞行训练和技术支援也都包括在军售交易之内。
基隆级驱逐舰:纪德级驱逐舰(Kidd class)是美国海军已除役的飞弹驱逐舰,2005年到2006年期间,美国海军陆续将该系列一共四艘驱逐舰交接给台湾海军,并改称为基隆级驱逐舰。图为台湾总统蔡英文2018年视察该舰。
爱国者导弹:爱国者导弹(Patriot)是美国雷神公司制造的中程地对空导弹系统,该系统曾在海湾战争中成功拦截了伊拉克军队发射的飞毛腿导弹,从而声名大噪。这款具有代表性的美军武器在之后经多次升级,从90年代起台湾多次向美国采购爱国者导弹。2020年7月达成的美国对台军售案中还包括爱国者三型导弹的零组件相关更换、维修、测试与后勤支援等内容。
将台湾打造成一个“堡垒”:近年来,随着中国军事装备力量的不断壮大,以及美中关系的日益紧张,美国出售给台湾的武器种类也发生了变化。美国兰德公司的研究员葛莱斯曼 (Derek Grossman)10月中旬在接受德国之声采访时表示:“美国过去卖给台湾许多不同类型的武器,有时是能提升台湾不对称防御战力的武器,有时是像F-16战机这种标志性的武器。不过现在美国的对台军援政策似乎做了一个明显的调整。”他认为,为了要阻止中国透过两栖登陆的方式入侵台湾,美国要协助台湾成为一个“坚不可摧的堡垒”。
北京如何应对?:历来的美国对台军售案都会引起北京方面的反对,但大多数情况下都仅限于口头抗议。10月26日,中国外交部发言人赵立坚在例行记者会上表示,中国将对参与上周对台军售案的洛克希德·马丁丶波音防务丶雷神等美国企业与个人实施制裁。其实洛克希德·马丁公司鲜少与中国做生意,多年来一直向台湾提供武器和国防设备。然而,如果中国对波音(Boeing)实施制裁,这可能对其造成沉重打击,因为该公司也向中国出售民航飞机。

或收紧电池和关键矿产技术出口

而根据中国商务部关于《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》调整公开征求意见的通知,该部建议对一些用于制造电池组件和处理关键矿产「锂」和「镓」的技术实施出口限制

征求意见反馈至2月1日截止,目前暂无该建议的明确生效日期,但如果实施,将影响到关键矿产以及其加工技术的获取,而中国在这些领域处于全球主导地位。

英国电池原材料咨询公司Benchmark Mineral Intelligence分析师Adam Webb表示,这能让中国拥有对全球70%锂金属的控制权。他指出,此举可以确保中国国内电池供应链的锂加工品供应,并且「根据所施加的出口限制程度,可能会对希望使用中国技术生产锂化学品的西方制造商构成挑战。」

不过路透社也提到,若中国届时真的收紧电池和关键矿产技术出口,也可能导致中国电池制造商如宁德时代、国轩高科和亿纬锂能的海外扩张计划受到影响

这些措施宣布的时间,正值特朗普二度就任美国总统之际。外界预料他在任内会对其他国家,尤其是中国,征收高额关税及采取多种贸易限制措施。

#中美关系

(路透社)

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究

Yesterday — 3 January 2025News

A dawn stand-off, a human wall and a failed arrest: South Korea enters uncharted territory

3 January 2025 at 18:30
Watch: President Yoon supporters rally outside residence

The stand-off started long before dawn. By the time we arrived in the dark, an army of police had pushed back suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol's angry supporters, who'd camped out overnight hoping to stop his arrest. Some of those I spoke to were crying, others wailing, at what they feared was about to unfold.

As dawn broke, the first officers ran up to the house, but were instantly thwarted - blocked by a wall of soldiers protecting the compound. Reinforcements came, but could not help. The doors to Yoon's house stayed tightly sealed, his security team refusing the police officers entry.

For several hours the investigators waited, the crowds outside growing more agitated - until, after a series of scuffles between the police and security officials, they decided their mission was futile, and gave up.

This is totally uncharted territory for South Korea. It is the first time a sitting president has ever faced arrest, so there is no rule book to follow - but the current situation is nonetheless astonishing.

When Yoon was impeached three weeks ago, he was supposedly stripped of his power. So to have law enforcement officers trying to carry out an arrest - which they have legal warrant for - only to be blocked by Yoon's security team raises serious and uncomfortable questions about who is in charge here.

The investigating officers said they abandoned efforts to arrest Yoon not only because it looked impossible, but because they were concerned for their safety. They said 200 soldiers and security officers linked arms, forming a human wall to block the entrance to the presidential residence, with some carrying guns.

Getty Images A sculpture of South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol is draped in chains inside a blue cage and surrounded by protesters in the streetGetty Images
For weeks, protesters have been calling for the impeachment and removal of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol

This is arguably part of Yoon's plan, leveraging a system he himself designed. Before he declared martial law last month – a plan we now know he cooked up months earlier – he surrounded himself with close friends and loyalists, injecting them into positions of power.

One of those people is the current head of his security team, who took up the job in September.

But although alarming, this situation is not entirely surprising. Yoon has refused to cooperate with the authorities over this investigation, ignoring every request to come in for questioning.

This is how things reached this point, where investigators felt they had no choice but to bring him in by force. Yoon is being investigated for one of the most serious political crimes there is: inciting an insurrection, which is punishable by life in prison or death.

Yoon has also spurred on his supporters, who have gathered in force outside his residence every day since the arrest warrant was issued. He sent them a letter on New Years' Day thanking them for "working hard" to defend both him and the country.

Although most people in South Korea are upset and angry at Yoon's decision to impose martial law, a core of his supporters have stayed loyal. Some even camped overnight, in freezing temperatures, to try and stop police reaching his home.

Many told me this morning they were prepared to die to protect Yoon, and repeated the same unfounded conspiracy theories that Yoon himself has floated – that last year's election was rigged, and the country had been infiltrated by pro-North Korea forces. They held up signs reading "stop the steal", a slogan they chanted over and over.

Attention is also now on South Korea's acting President Choi Sang-mok, and how far his powers extend; whether he could and should sack the president's security chief and force the team to allow his arrest. The opposition party says police should be arresting anyone who stands in their way.

Although investigators have until 6 January to attempt this arrest again – this is when the warrant runs out - it is unlikely they will go in once more without changing their strategy or negotiating with the security team in advance. They will want to avoid a repeat of today's failure.

They also have to contend with the throngs of Yoon's supporters, who now feel victorious and empowered. They believe they are largely responsible for the authorities' climb down. "We've won, we did it," they have been singing all afternoon.

As their confidence grows, so will their numbers, especially with the weekend approaching.

Unanswered questions remain after Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion

3 January 2025 at 17:04
Watch: What we know about the Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas

US law enforcement is looking for clues to unravel the mystery behind the Tesla vehicle that exploded outside Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas earlier this week, giving seven people minor injuries.

The man who rented the Cybertruck - then drove it to the city and parked it in front of the hotel - has been identified as Matthew Alan Livelsberger, a 37-year-old active-duty US special forces soldier.

Police found his lifeless body inside the charred Tesla with a self-inflicted gunshot wound. They also found fuel cannisters and more than a dozen firework mortars in the bed of the vehicle.

On Thursday, there remained a heightened police presence at the hotel, located right off the busy Las Vegas strip. Yellow police tape cordoned off a small section of the hotel's entrance as employees worked to repair damage to the facade.

Authorities continue to work and piece together information, and many questions remain.

For example, it is unclear why Livelsberger rented the car - or if the perpetrator was intending to make a political statement ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House later this month.

Why did Livelsberger drive to Las Vegas?

Getty Images A police care blocks the road near the Trump International Hotel in Las VegasGetty Images

One of the biggest unanswered questions is why Livelsberger rented the Tesla and drove it more than 800 miles (1,300km) from Colorado to Las Vegas.

Las Vegas police said he rented the vehicle on 28 December in Denver. They were able to track his movements using photographs taken on the drive and information from Tesla's charging technology. He was the only one seen driving it, they said.

The vehicle arrived in the city on Wednesday morning, less than two hours before the explosion, police said.

Las Vegas Sheriff Kevin McMahill said on Thursday that a body inside the vehicle was recovered. It was burned beyond recognition, but the county's coroner used DNA and dental records to confirm that Livelsberger had been inside the Cybertruck at the time of the blast. He was found with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head.

"I'm comfortable calling it a suicide with a bombing that occurred immediately after," Sheriff McMahill said. He added that no motive for the incident had been established.

Was the explosion meant to be a political statement?

Another big question is whether the explosion was meant as a statement ahead of the change of US president later this month.

Police have not found any evidence that links the alleged perpetrator to specific political beliefs, but they said they were investigating whether the incident was tied to the fact that President-elect Donald Trump owns the hotel, or that Elon Musk runs Tesla.

Trump recently named Musk to co-lead a presidential advisory commission, the Department of Government Efficiency, after the two became close during Trump's campaign.

"It's not lost on us that it's in front of the Trump building, and that it's a Tesla vehicle," said Spencer Evans, an FBI agent based in Las Vegas, on Thursday.

"But we don't have information at this point that definitely tells us, or suggests, that (the incident) was because of a particular ideology," he said.

Was it related to the attack in New Orleans?

The explosion happened just a few hours after a man drove a pickup truck into New Year revellers on the crowded Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Louisiana, killing 14 people and injuring dozens of others.

That attacker has been identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old US citizen who also served in the US Army.

President Joe Biden has said investigators are looking into whether the two incidents are linked, though so far nothing has been uncovered to suggest that is the case.

But the question continues to be fuelled by the apparent similarities between the two incidents and some biographical details of the drivers of both vehicles.

Both incidents happened in the early hours of New Year's Day. Both men served in the US armed forces - including at the Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg) military base in North Carolina - and both completed a tour in Afghanistan. Both men also rented the vehicles they used through a mobile car rental application called Turo.

However, police have said there is no evidence the two men were in the same unit or served at the same time at Fort Liberty. Although both were deployed to Afghanistan in 2009, there is no evidence they served in the same province, location or unit.

In the New Orleans attack, police recovered an Islamic State (IS) group flag from the vehicle used by Jabbar. They added that he posted videos to social media moments prior claiming allegiance to the group. Police have determined that Jabbar was acting alone.

Meanwhile, in Las Vegas, there is no evidence that suggests that Livelsberger was motivated by IS, or that he and Jabbar had ever been in contact. Police have cautioned that the investigation remains active.

What is Livelsberger's background?

Livelsberger was a decorated special forces intelligence sergeant who was serving in Germany, but was on approved leave at the time of the incident.

His father told BBC's US partner CBS News that his son was in Colorado to see his wife and eight-month-old daughter.

He said he last spoke to his son at Christmas and that everything seemed normal.

The Daily Beast reported that Livelsberger was a "big" supporter of Trump. A senior law enforcement official who spoke with Livelsberger's family told the outlet that Livelsberger voted for Trump in November's election.

His uncle told The Independent that Livelsberger loved Trump "and he was always a very, very patriotic soldier, a patriotic American."

Israel confirms it is holding Gaza hospital chief Abu Safiya

3 January 2025 at 20:31
Reuters doctor abu safiyaReuters
The hospital director was detained during an Israeli raid last Friday

Israel has confirmed it is holding Gaza hospital director Dr Hussam Abu Safiya after earlier telling a local NGO that it was unaware of his case, sparking concern for his well being.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) statement said he was "currently being investigated by Israeli security forces" in person.

The statement did not offer an explanation for the confusion but repeated that he was suspected of being a "terrorist" and for "holding a rank" in Hamas, the armed Palestinian group at war with Israel in Gaza.

Dr Abu Safiya was arrested as the Israeli military forced patients and medical staff to leave Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza last Friday, alleging the facility was a "Hamas terrorist stronghold".

On Thursday the IDF told Physicians for Human Rights Israel (PHRI) that it had "no indication of the arrest or detention of the individual in question".

The PHRI filed a petition with the Israeli High Court of Justice on Thursday, demanding Dr Abu Safiya's location be disclosed. It said the court had given the IDF a week to comply.

Meanwhile Amnesty head Agnès Callamard said Israeli authorities must "urgently disclose his whereabouts".

She said Israel had detained "hundreds of Palestinian healthcare workers from Gaza without charge or trial" and said they had been "subjected to torture and other ill-treatment and been held in incommunicado detention".

Israel denies mistreating detainees.

Dr Abu Safiya's family previously told BBC Arabic they believe he is being held at Sde Teiman military base in southern Israel, where Israeli forces have taken many detainees from Gaza for interrogation.

Whistleblowers have previously told the BBC and other international media of extremely harsh conditions for detainees there. Israel has said all detainees there are kept "carefully and appropriately".

The IDF ordered everyone inside Kamal Adwan hospital to leave last Friday morning, giving the hospital about 15 minutes to move patients and staff into the courtyard, medical staff told the BBC.

Beit Lahia, where the hospital is located, has been under a tightening Israeli blockade imposed on parts of northern Gaza since October. The UN has said the area has been under "near-total siege" as the Israeli military heavily restricts access of aid deliveries to an area where an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 people remain.

Reuters Palestinians inspect damages following an Israeli raid at Kamal Adwan hospital, in the northern Gaza StripReuters

On Saturday, the IDF said it apprehended 240 combatants at Kamal Adwan and said Dr Abu Safiya was among medical staff taken for questioning.

Video footage showed him walking towards an Israeli armoured vehicle before being taken for interrogation. An Israeli military spokesperson confirmed the arrest that same day, saying the doctor had been transferred for questioning.

Dr Abu Safiya was previously arrested by Israeli forces during an earlier raid on the hospital in October, but was freed shortly afterwards. During that Israeli operation Dr Abu Safiya's 15-year-old son was killed in a drone strike. Footage from later that day showed him leading funeral prayers for his son in the hospital courtyard.

Israeli attacks on Gaza's healthcare facilities have prompted increasing condemnation.

On Tuesday the UN Human Rights Office says Israeli attacks on and around hospitals have pushed Gaza's healthcare system to "the brink of total collapse" and raised serious concerns about war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Israel's mission in Geneva said Israeli forces operated in accordance with international law and would "never target innocent civilians".

Israel launched a campaign to destroy Hamas in response to the group's unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.

More than 45,580 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's health ministry.

Biden blocks Nippon Steel from buying US Steel

3 January 2025 at 22:25
Getty Images U.S. Steel's Clairton Coke Works rests along the Monongahela River in ClairtonGetty Images

US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.

The controversial decision comes a year after Nippon Steel first announced the $14.9bn (£12bn) deal, describing it as a lifeline for its smaller Pennsylvania-based rival.

But the transaction soon ran into political trouble, after leaders of the United Steelworkers union loudly opposed the deal, bringing political pressure to bear in a key state during the 2024 presidential election.

Biden decided to scrap the deal despite concerns by some advisors that it could damage Washington's relations with Tokyo, a key ally.

BBC News has contacted Nippon Steel and US Steel for comment.

Nippon Steel has previously denied that it planned to reduce production or cut jobs, while US Steel had warned that it might have to close plants without the investment that would come with a new owner.

Those concerns had been echoed by some workers and local politicians.

Other business groups said they feared rejecting the transaction would chill the climate for international investment in the US.

But Biden has voiced longstanding opposition to the deal. The transaction has also been criticised by President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming vice-president, JD Vance.

A US government panel charged with reviewing the deal for national security risks failed to reach a consensus by late December, leaving the decision to Biden, who was required to act within a 15-day deadline.

In his announcement on Friday he said maintaining US ownership was important to keeping the US steel industry and it supply chains strong.

"As I have said many times, steel production - and the steel workers who produce it - are the backbone of our nation," he said.

"That is because steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base. Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure."

Nippon Steel and US Steel have previously suggested they may pursue legal action against the government if the deal did not happen.

Prof Stephen Nagy, of the Department of Politics International Studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said this was a "political" decision, noting that the Biden administration from its start promised a "foreign policy for the middle class".

"This was a direct response and continuation of the Trump MAGA agenda of Making America Great Again," he said.

"The Biden administration couldn't appear weak on foreign businesses, whether it's an ally or adversary."

Why is it so hard to arrest South Korea's impeached president?

3 January 2025 at 20:21
Getty Images Police officers remove supporters of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from outside his official residence in Seoul, South Korea, on January 2, 2025.Getty Images
Police officers remove supporters of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from outside his official residence in Seoul

There were more than 100 police officers and they were armed with a warrant - but South Korean authorities failed to arrest suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol after a six-hour deadlock outside his home.

That's how long the confrontation with Yoon's security team lasted as they formed a human wall and used vehicles to block the arrest team's path, according to local media.

It has been an unprecedented month for South Korean politics - Yoon's shocking yet short-lived martial law order was followed by an impeachment vote against him. Then came the criminal investigation, his refusal to appear for questioning and, earlier this week, a warrant for his arrest.

The right-wing leader still has a strong support base - and thousands of them turned up outside his home on Friday morning to oppose his arrest.

But, by many accounts, Yoon is now a disgraced leader - impeached by parliament and suspended from office, he awaits the decision of the constitutional court which can remove him from office.

So why has it proven so difficult for police to arrest him?

The men guarding the president

Although Yoon has been stripped of his presidential powers - after lawmakers voted to impeach him - he is still entitled to a security detail.

And those men played a key role in blocking the arrest on Friday.

The presidential security service (PSS) could have acted out of loyalty to Yoon or under "a misguided understanding of their legal and constitutional role", says Mason Richey, an associate professor at Seoul's Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

Reuters Anti-Yoon protesters clash with police officers as they march towards impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's official residenceReuters
Anti-Yoon protesters clash with police after investigators failed to arrest the suspended president

Given that Yoon has been suspended, the PSS should be taking directions from acting President Choi Sang-mok. "They have either not been instructed by acting President Choi to stand down, or they are refusing his orders to do so," says Assoc Prof Richey.

Some experts believe the security officers were showing "unconditional loyalty" to Yoon, rather than the office itself. They point to the fact that the PSS's chief Park Jong-joon was appointed to the job by Yoon last September.

"It may well be the case that Yoon has seeded the organisation with hardline loyalists in preparation for precisely this eventuality," says US-based lawyer and Korea expert Christopher Jumin Lee.

And that Park's predecessor was former defence minister Kim Yong-hyun, who is accused of advising Yoon to impose martial law. He is currently being held for questioning as part of the criminal investigation into Yoon.

Yoon's residence

A risk of escalation

The "simplest" solution, Mr Lee says, is for acting president Choi to order the PSS to stand down in the interim.

"If he is unwilling to do so, that may be grounds for his own impeachment by the National Assembly," he added.

Choi, who is the finance minister, had stepped in to lead the country after lawmakers voted to impeach Yoon's first successor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

This political stalemate also reflects the polarisation in South Korean politics - between those who support Yoon, and his decison to impose martial law, and those who oppose it. And the differences don't necessarily end there.

The vast majority of South Koreans agree that Yoon's declaration of martial law on 3 Dec was wrong and that he needs to be held accountable, says Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security - but they cannot agree on what accountability looks like.

"The actors involved disagree over process, procedure and their legal basis, which is adding to the current political uncertainty," she explains.

That uncertainty is also creating tense stand-offs like the one that unfolded on Friday in and outside Yoon's presidental residence, where his supporters have been camping out for days, leading to heated speeches and even skirmishes with police.

Law enforcement could return with more agents and use force but that would be "highly dangerous," Assoc Prof Mason said.

Getty Images A screens shows footage of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivering an address to the nation at Seoul station on December 07, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea.Getty Images
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol

The PSS too is heavily armed, so arresting officers would be looking to avoid any escalation.

"What happens if the police show up with additional warrants calling for the arrest of PSS personnel, [the PSS] defy those warrants as well and then brandish their guns?" Mr Lee asks.

Police have now said they are investigating the PSS director and his deputy for obstructing them - so there could be more charges and arrest warrants coming.

The fallout from Yoon's martial law order is also a challenge for the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) that is investigating him.

It has only been operating for four years. It was was created in response to public anger over former president Park Geun-hye who was impeached, removed from office and later jailed over a corruption scandal.

While South Korean presidents have been jailed before, Yoon is the first one to face arrest before he steps down.

Investigators have until 6 January to arrest Yoon before the current warrant expires.

They may attempt to arrest Yoon again over the weekend, although the weekend could pose a bigger challenge if the crowds of supporters grow. They can also apply for a new warrant and try to detain him again.

Given how far South Korea has now slid into uncharted territory, the uncertainty is likely to continue.

Additional reporting by Ewe Koh

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