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Today — 4 April 2025News

Trump’s Trade War Risks Forfeiting America’s Economic Primacy

3 April 2025 at 23:47
The United States has steered an economic order for 80 years based on trade and trust, making the country the world’s financial superpower. That vision is now blurred.

© Focke Strangmann/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

New Mercedes-Benz vehicles at the port of Bremerhaven, Germany, in February.

Even After the Salman Rushdie Attack, Turmoil at Chautauqua Institution

3 April 2025 at 15:00
Charges of antisemitism and liberal bias and dismay over cuts to the opera budget have led to a small mutiny at Chautauqua Institution. And this was after the attack on Salman Rushdie.

© Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

Yesterday — 3 April 2025News

Is South Africa's coalition government about to fall apart?

3 April 2025 at 21:56
AFP South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (L) smiles as DA leader John Steenhuisen (C) shakes hands with South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile (R) - all wearing dark grey suits and ties - at the sitting of parliament for the swearing in of cabinet minister - July 2024.AFP
DA leader John Steenhuisen pictured with President Ramaphosa (L) and Deputy President Paul Mashatile (R) not long after their coalition was formed

South Africa's coalition government is on shaky ground, with the sharp divisions between its two biggest parties - the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) - exposed in a crucial vote on the national budget.

The centre-right DA voted against the fiscal framework - a key part of the budget - after rejecting an increase in VAT, and demanding a cut in spending across all government departments.

The ANC, which positions itself as a centre-left party, refused to bow to what it called the DA's demand for an "austerity budget".

It demonstrated its political acumen by winning the support of a slew of smaller parties - both inside and outside government - to get the fiscal framework through parliament by 194 votes to 182.

The DA filed papers in court to challenge the vote, saying it was "procedurally flawed" while its top leadership is due to meet later to decide whether or not to remain in what South Africans call a government of national unity (GNU).

Professor William Gumede, an academic at Wits University's school of governance in Johannesburg, told the BBC it was unclear whether the DA would quit the government at this stage.

"It will be asking itself whether this is the tipping-point or whether it should wait - at least until the outcome of the court case," Prof Gumede said.

The coalition government was formed less than a year ago after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in elections for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994 at the end of white-minority rule.

South Africa's business sector lobbied the two parties to enter into a coalition, seeing it as the best option to guarantee economic stability.

But hinting that the DA's participation was no longer certain, DA spokesman Willie Aucamp accused the ANC of a "serious infraction" and said the party had "crossed a line in the sand".

DA federal chair Helen Zille said the party would consider all its options, and not rush into a decsion.

"We know that being in a coalition requires compromise. You can't get it all. But the ANC also can't get it all, and they are refusing, point blank, to share power," Zille added.

The ANC took an equally tough stand, with its parliamentary chief whip, Mdumiseni Ntuli, accusing the DA of "complete betrayal" by breaking ranks with its partners in the GNU.

"The DA is a member, or was a member," Ntuli said.

"I don't know what is going to happen with them now, but the GNU remains," he added, referring to the fact that other parties in the 10-member coalition remain committed to it.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's spokesman Vincent Magwenya also threw down the gauntlet to the DA, saying: "You can't be part of a government whose budget you opposed."

The DA found itself voting alongside South Africa's two biggest, and most populist, opposition parties - former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Advocating the nationalisation of key sectors of the economy, these two parties are the impeccable foes of the pro-business DA.

But the three parties were united in opposing a VAT increase, believing it would hit the poor hard.

As DA leader John Steenhuisen put it: "The ANC is out of touch with the people, and if they bought their own groceries or filled their own tanks, they would know how expensive life already is."

But the ANC argued that a VAT increase - set at 0.5% this year and a further 0.5% next year - was necessary to raise revenue, and to offer public services such as health and education.

Crucially, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) voted with the ANC, signalling the end of the alliance it formed with the DA in the build-up to the election in a failed bid to keep Ramaphosa's party out of power.

ActionSA - a small opposition party which broke away from the DA - helped the ANC clinch the vote.

It said it had reached a deal with the ANC that would see the VAT increase scrapped, while alternative ways of raising revenue for the government are explored.

"Yesterday's [Wednesday's] adoption of the report on the fiscal framework was merely one step in a multi-stage budgeting process before the final budget is approved," ActionSA said in a statement.

Getty Images A woman with the logo of the Democratic Alliance painted in blue on her face at the DA's manifesto launch in Pretoria, South Africa - February 2024. Getty Images
Prof Gumede says the DA has taken the opportunity to show "it is pro-poor"

Prof Gumede said the ANC would find it difficult to convince the public to pay more taxes when public services were crumbling.

"The optics don't look good for the ANC," he told the BBC.

"The DA has taken the budget as an opportunity to make a big impact, and to show it is pro-poor."

The dispute over the budget is the latest sign of the sharp differences between the two parties, with the DA also challenging in the courts three other pieces of legislation - including the land expropriation act.

This law was one of the issues that led to US President Donald Trump's administration cutting aid to South Africa.

The Trump administration has now imposed tariffs of 30% on all South African imports, in a move that is likely to be a huge blow to its already floundering economy.

"They have got some bad things going on in South Africa. You know, we are paying them billions of dollars, and we cut the funding because a lot of bad things are happening in South Africa," the US president said, before going on to name other countries.

In a statement, Ramaphosa's office condemned the new tariffs as "punitive", saying they could "serve as a barrier to trade and shared prosperity".

But for many South Africans, the tariffs signal the need for the two biggest parties to resolve their differences and work together - or risk seeing the nation sink into a deeper economic crisis at a time when the unemployment rate is already at more than 30%.

You may also be interested in:

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UK set to host 2035 Women's World Cup

3 April 2025 at 20:22

UK set to host 2035 Women's World Cup

The Spanish team celebrating their win and holding the World Cup trophyImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Spain won the 2023 Women's World Cup in Australia and New Zealand

  • Published

The United Kingdom is set to host the 2035 Women's World Cup after being the only valid bid received by Fifa, the organisation that runs international football.

Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland put forward a joint bid in March.

Fifa has already stated that the tournament must be in Europe or Africa.

There was a suggestion that Spain alongside Portugal and Morocco might be putting a bid forward, but Fifa president Gianni Infantino said the UK's was the only valid one received.

Meanwhile, the United States are set to host the 2031 Women's World Cup.

"The path is there for the Women's World Cup in 2031 and 2035 to take place in some great nations and further boost the women's football movement," Gianni Infantino said.

In 2031, 48 teams are due to compete up from the 32 teams competing in the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Russia not on Trump's tariff list

3 April 2025 at 21:34
Reuters View of sunny MoscowReuters
Local media say Moscow's absence is "to the disappointment of many in the West"

One country that did not feature on Donald Trump's list of tariffs on US trade partners was Russia.

US outlet Axios quoted White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying this was because existing US sanctions on Russia "preclude any meaningful trade" and noting that Cuba, Belarus and North Korea were also not included.

However, nations with even less trade with the US - such as Syria, which exported $11m of products last year according to UN data quoted by Trading Economics - were on the list.

The US imposed large-scale sanctions on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump has generally taken a friendlier approach to Russia since his return to the White House.

He has made ending the war a priority and a top Russian official is in Washington this week for meetings with his administration, as negotiations continue on a deal.

Last month, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on countries buying Russian oil if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.

On Thursday, Russian media also argued that their country was not on the sweeping tariffs list because of existing sanctions.

"No tariffs have been imposed on Russia, but that's not because of some special treatment. It's simply because Western sanctions are already in place against our country," says state-run Rossiya 24 TV.

According to its sister channel Rossiya 1, Russia is missing from the list "to the disappointment of many in the West".

Many Kremlin-controlled media outlets have specifically referred to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told Fox News: "Russia and Belarus, we don't trade with. They're sanctioned."

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported goods from Russia worth $3.5bn (£2.7bn) in 2024. It mainly consisted of fertilisers, nuclear fuel and some metals, according to Trading Economics and Russian media.

Some of the Russian coverage has taken a mocking tone, with pro-Kremlin NTV saying Trump treated America's allies in Europe as "serfs" who only respond with "moaning".

Many, such as Zvezda TV which is run by Russia's defence ministry, note the inclusion of uninhabited Heard Island and McDonald Islands on the tariffs list.

"Looks like it's some penguins who will have to pay the 10% tariff," Zvezda said.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is facing a 10% tariff on its exports to the US.

The country's first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, said the new US tariff would mostly hit small producers.

She also said Ukraine was "working to secure better terms".

In 2024, Ukraine exported $874m (£642m) worth of goods to the US and imported $3.4bn from the US, according to the deputy prime minister.

"Ukraine has much to offer the United States as a reliable ally and partner," she added. "Fair tariffs benefit both countries."

Despite the small scale of trade, the US has provided significant material support for the war against Russia. Trump has argued that the US has spent $300-$350bn on such aid, while the US Department of Defense said $182.8bn had been "appropriated" - a figure that covers US military training in Europe and replenishment of US defence stocks - for Operation Atlantic Resolve.

The US has also been attempting to reach a deal for access to Ukrainian minerals as part of negotiations to end the war.

特朗普狂征关税 欧中抱团取暖还是相互防范?

3 April 2025 at 23:17
德才
2025-04-03T15:05:47.764Z
特朗普在白宫玫瑰园向记者展示签署的关税文件

(德国之声中文网)就在4月3日的中国商务部新闻发布会上,发言人何亚东对美国宣布加征“对等关税”之决定大加抨击,表示会“坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益”。何亚东提到,已经有“很多贸易伙伴表达强烈不满和明确反对”,指出“历史证明,提高关税解决不了美国自身问题,既损害美国自身利益,也危及全球经济发展和产供链稳定”。中方敦促“美方立即取消单边关税措施,与贸易伙伴通过平等对话妥善解决分歧”。

值得注意的是,中国商务部发言人在抨击美国时,多次提及“很多贸易伙伴”。就在同一场新闻发布会上,何亚东就披露说,几天前,中国商务部长与到访的欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇(Maroš Šefčovič)举行会谈,“双方同意尽快重启电动汽车反补贴案价格承诺谈判,为推动中欧企业开展投资和产业合作营造良好环境。鉴于案情复杂,应欧方请求,中方决定依法延长白兰地反倾销案调查期限。”

在接受德国之声采访时,曾多年任欧盟驻中国商会主席的伍德克(Jörg Wuttke)指出,这是中国在利用特朗普颠覆既有国际秩序的时机向欧盟发动“魅力攻势”。“我觉得欧盟和中国在接下去一段时间里真的有可能互相接近,欧中关系有望进一步缓和。”这位目前担任​大成全球咨询公司–奥尔布赖特石桥集团(DGA)合伙人的中国问题专家认为,这是因为中美关系极有可能因为特朗普不断加码关税而趋于紧张,“因为中国政府必须做出回击,而且可以说他们早就已经把子弹上膛了。”

中国驻欧盟商会秘书长方东葵在接受德国之声采访时也说,作为中、美、欧全球三大市场中的两个,“中国和欧盟现在可以通过加强沟通和磋商,从而为动荡的全球贸易注入稳定性和正能量。”

多年任欧盟驻中国商会主席的伍德克目前担任​大成全球咨询公司–奥尔布赖特石桥集团(DGA)合伙人。他指出,欧盟和中国在接下去一段时间里真的有可能互相接近,欧中关系有望进一步缓和。

欧中贸易摩擦依旧

然而,中国和欧盟相互接近、共同抵抗特朗普关税大棒的构想面临着许多内部的阻碍。近年来,欧中之间围绕着太阳能、电动汽车反补贴关税等贸易问题有着不小的摩擦。欧盟方面调查认定中国的电动汽车产业链大量受益于“不公正的补贴政策”,并出台了相应的惩罚性关税。北京也对不少欧盟产品加征报复性关税。尽管欧中双方一直在就此议题保持谈判,但是何时能取得成果仍然是个未知数。此外,也有不少关注欧中关系的分析人士担心,随着特朗普普遍加征关税,同是出口导向型经济体的欧盟和中国,势必会在美国以外的市场上更加激烈地竞争,因此会反而激化欧中之间的矛盾。

长年关注中国经济的科隆德国经济研究所(IW Köln)贸易专家马特斯(Jürgen Matthes)就对德国之声表示,中国商品极可能会被迫寻求其他销售市场,尤其是欧盟市场。“我们看到中国企业一方面确实更有效率、更善于创新,但另一方面也收到了巨额补贴。而且,人民币兑欧元汇率也是被低估的,这也赋予了中国商品不对称优势。”

中国驻欧盟商会则对这种担忧不以为然。秘书长方东葵说,作为体量巨大的经济体,中欧之间存在贸易摩擦和分歧是“非常正常的现象”,中欧双方现在要做的就是“作为多边贸易体系维护者防止逐级竞争”,“避免全球多边贸易体系蒙受更严重冲击”。他进一步建议目前处于封冻中的《中欧投资协议》重启谈判,从而“通过中欧合作来对冲全球市场的动荡”。

科隆德国经济研究所的中国问题专家马特斯认为,解冻“中欧投资协议”现在并非好主意

双重去风险

德国经济学家马特斯却认为,解冻“中欧投资协议”现在并非好主意。“如果北京真的能大幅收紧补贴、恢复人民币升值,那么我们或许还可以讨论《中欧投资协议》。但即便是这样,也是不一定符合我们欧洲利益的。因为该协议会激励欧洲大型企业进一步加大对中国的投资,扩大其中国工厂的产能,进一步损害欧盟对华出口、进一步威胁欧洲本土的就业岗位。”

曾在中国生活好几十年的伍德克则指出,不论是中国商品可能转而冲击欧盟市场、还是《中欧投资协议》可能造成的欧洲就业岗位流失,其根本原因都在于中国工业领域广泛的产能过剩问题,而这个问题在当前中国政经体制下很难解决。“中国的制造业生产了全球34%的商品,如果产能全开比例也许还要更高,但是中国的消费只占了全球的12%。这样的情况,肯定会造成国内的经济问题,也会危及和贸易伙伴的关系。……但是我依然相信布鲁塞尔和北京现在都在寻求改善双边关系。”

智库机构“欧盟外交关系委员会”(ECFR)的中国问题专家欧特尔(Janka Oertel)几天前在接受德广联中国播客节目Welt.Macht.China采访时则明确警告说,欧洲不应该在欧美关系转冷之时转而寻求亲近中国:“在特朗普当选之前存在的欧中摩擦,如今依然存在,不论是产能过剩、还是不公正的贸易手段等等。所以说,另一边的中国并不是什么神奇药方。”

有鉴于此,近期德国以及欧盟政界逐渐开始提及“双重去风险”概念(Duo-Derisking),也就是同时降低欧洲对美国、中国的经贸依赖度。科隆德国经济研究所(IW Köln)贸易专家马特斯就在德国之声采访中说:“欧盟的对华去风险策略将会因为特朗普的关税而变得更加艰难,这意味着欧盟必须要加强和拉美国家、中国以外的亚洲国家加强关系,推动经贸关系多样化进程。”

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© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

德语媒体:观望中的北京

3 April 2025 at 22:47
null 媒体看中国
2025-03-31T13:03:45.625Z
法兰克福汇报:北京对中美关系的变化仍持观望态度。

(德国之声中文网)《法兰克福汇报》发表评论认为,与大多数人的预期不同,北京并未急于填补特朗普留下的“战略空隙”,而是停留在象征性举动和外交辞令之中。这篇题为《北京仍在观望》的评论写道:

“就在前不久,中国总理李强在北京将中国描述为‘全球化的负责任捍卫者’。他强调,全世界应当共同反对‘单边主义’。中国仍在观望华盛顿将如何制定对华立场以及如何应对普京。即使面对遭到特朗普团队蔑视以及公然施压的欧洲,中国也并未提出任何新倡议、新承诺以及做出任何妥协和让步。无论是在贸易问题上,还是在俄乌战争的问题上,至今中国几乎没有采取任何实际行动。

因为对于中国而言,美国始终是最核心的外交议题。尽管特朗普的所作所为也在中国国内引起了很多困惑,但在对美关系未能清晰定位之前,北京基本上并没有采取改弦易辙的外交举措。

这也同样适用于中国的内部治理。在中国,包括外交政策在内的各个方面,其决策机制都已越来越集中于最高领导人一人手中。针对官僚体系的清洗行动,已经使官僚阶层内人心惶惶,整个体系也陷入了瘫痪状态。

或许中国政府会认为,不需付出过高代价,就可以改善同美国之外其他西方国家的关系。毕竟为了自身安全,欧洲方面已经开始强调要同北京加强‘建设性合作’。尽管同欧洲改善关系已经有了一线希望,但中国却并未因此调整其支持俄罗斯的立场,也更没有改变中国的产业政策,毕竟,下一任美国总统上台后,华盛顿的政策可能会再次转向。”

中国总理李强:”中美合作则双赢,对抗则双输“。(资料图)

评论指出,尽管特朗普政府在国际政治舞台留下了大量空白,但中国显然并不急于去扮演填充角色,而是采取了一贯的观望立场。

“鉴于习近平会坚定地执行其既定路线,因此他完全可以以不变应万变,坐视西方阵营自乱阵脚。而且,与需要在中期选举前拿出政绩的特朗普不同,习近平并没有类似的时间压力。正因为如此,北京并不急于安排习近平与特朗普的首脑峰会,同时也可能会尽力拖延中美双方就贸易问题达成协议的时间。

中国既不会做出妥协让步,但也不会让矛盾升级。中国总理李强表示:‘历史告诉我们,中美合作则双赢,对抗则双输。’中国正在密切关注美国方面4月初即将结束的一项调查,这份调查将评估中国是否履行了此前的贸易协议。双方都很清楚,调查结果对中国将是负面的。届时,美国可能会对中国发起猛烈攻势。北京的首要目标是坚持既定战略的前提下,安然熬过特朗普的执政期。”

《商报》评论也认为,美国总统特朗普对美欧关系的调整,以及对俄罗斯独裁者普京的迎合,是非常短视的行为。但同《法兰克福汇报》评论不同,《商报》评论作者认为,特朗普对国际关系的颠覆性改变,给了北京可乘之机,而这也正是本届特朗普政府的最大败笔:

“中国人不仅是美国自我毁灭过程的敏锐观察者,同时也在极具战略性地利用这一机会。前不久的中国人大会议上,中国共产党领导人已宣布,中国将再次大幅提升科研与开发预算。

此外,美国经济战略家长期以来的期望,即中国政府会继续束缚本国私营 IT 企业的发展,也在逐渐破灭。习近平最近高调为中国私营 IT 企业‘平反’,就清楚地表明了这一点。

所有这些因素都使得特朗普政府让美国变成世界公敌的严重错误,变得更加致命。直到不久前,几乎没有人会认真相信,美国坚固的国家安全体系竟然会在如此短的时间内、遭到如此戏剧化的毁坏。”

摘编自其他媒体的内容,不代表德国之声的立场或观点。

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特朗普对等关税席卷全球 会否引发贸易战

3 April 2025 at 22:47
Timothy Rooks
2025-04-03T14:23:13.320Z
特朗普对等关税的“新现实”

(德国之声中文网)4月2日,美国总统特朗普如期宣布了新关税。受影响的既包括该国最紧密的盟友,如日本,也包括对手,如中国。

10%的基准关税将于4月5日生效,谈判几乎没有时间。对不同国家的最高关税将于4月9日生效。

而这些关税将累加在美国已对中国征收的钢、铝和汽车关税之上。

美国国内反应

工业界迅速作出回响。全美制造业协会主席提门斯(Jay Timmons)表示:“美国许多制造商利润率已经很低了。新关税的高成本威胁投资、就业、供应链,以及美国作为制造业超级大国,面对其它国家的竞争力。”

消费者技术协会负责人沙皮罗(Gary Shapiro)也作出类似表态:“总统特朗普席卷全球的对等关税,将推高通胀,令就业岗位消失,并且可能带来美国经济衰退。”

对“朋友”的关税

欧委会主席冯德莱恩表示:“我们正在最终完成初步的一揽子反制措施,作为对钢铁关税的回应。我们正准备进一步的反制措施,以备谈判失败。”

意大利总理梅洛尼在脸书上则语气更为缓和。“我们将尽全力与美国达成协议,以避免终将削弱西方而有利于其它全球玩家的贸易战。”

投资者如何看

德意志银行战略分析师利德(Jim Reid)向投资者表示,美国新关税的水平属于最坏预期之列。他预计,美国增长今年可能因此损失1-1.5%。

中国来说,加征34%的关税后,中国产品面临的关税将为54%。

咨询公司Capital Economics首席经济师席令(Neil Shearing)也表示,新对等关税规模大过预期。据该机构的初步估算,新关税之下,中国GDP或下降0.5%,欧元区和日本则下降约0.2%。

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After Meeting With Laura Loomer, Trump Fires National Security Council Officials

During the 30-minute meeting, Ms. Loomer excoriated National Security Council officials in front of the president and Michael Waltz, the national security adviser.

© Saul Martinez for The New York Times

Laura Loomer’s rhetoric and actions have been so extreme that she has alienated others even on the far right.

How were Trump's tariffs calculated?

3 April 2025 at 19:48
Getty Images A photo of Donald Trump with a mathematical formula written in the backgroundGetty Images

US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries being imported into the US, with even higher rates for what he calls the "worst offenders".

But how exactly were these tariffs - essentially taxes on imports - worked out? BBC Verify has been looking at the calculations behind the numbers.

What were the calculations?

When Trump presented a giant cardboard chart detailing the tariffs in the White House Rose Garden it was initially assumed that the charges were based on a combination of existing tariffs and other trade barriers (like regulations).

But later, the White House published what might look like a complicated mathematical formula.

White House A screen grab of the formula used by the White House used to calculate tariffsWhite House
The formula shared by the White House

But the actual exercise boiled down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

A trade deficit occurs when a country buys (imports) more physical products from other countries than it sells (exports) to them.

For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them - there is a goods deficit of $295bn. The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn.

Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.

Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House's formula resulted in a 20% tariff.

A BBC graphic showing how the White House methodology works

Are the Trump tariffs 'reciprocal'?

Many commentators have pointed out that these tariffs are not reciprocal.

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers (things like regulations that drive up costs).

But the White House's official methodology document makes clear that they have not calculated this for all the countries on which they have imposed tariffs.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US's goods trade deficit with each country.

Trump has broken away from the formula in imposing tariffs on countries that buy more goods from the US than they sell to it.

For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.

'Lots of broader impacts'

Trump believes the US is getting a bad deal in global trade. In his view, other countries flood US markets with cheap goods - which hurts US companies and costs jobs. At the same time, these countries are putting up barriers that make US products less competitive abroad.

So by using tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, Trump hopes to revive US manufacturing and protect jobs.

Reuters A man wearing a jacket saying "Auto Workers For Trump" sits in the Rose Garden during Trump's address on Wednesday evening. He is also wearing a baseball cap, and is flanked by other men in work gear. Reuters
The US car industry is one of the manufacturing sectors Trump is keen to revive

But will this new tariff regime achieve the desired outcome?

BBC Verify has spoken to a number of economists. The overwhelming view is that while the tariffs might reduce the goods deficit between the US and individual countries, they will not reduce the overall deficit between the US and rest of the world.

"Yes, it will reduce bilateral trade deficits between the US and these countries. But there will obviously be lots of broader impacts that are not captured in the calculation", says Professor Jonathan Portes of King's College, London.

That's because the US' existing overall deficit is not driven solely by trade barriers, but by how the US economy works.

For one, Americans spend and invest more than they earn and that gap means the US buys more from the world than it sells. So as long as that continues, the US may continue to keep running a deficit despite increasing tariffs with it global trading partners.

Some trade deficits can also exist for a number of legitimate reasons - not just down to tariffs. For example, buying food that is easier or cheaper to produce in other countries' climates.

Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics said: "The formula is reverse engineered to rationalise charging tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit. There is no economic rationale for doing this and it will cost the global economy dearly."

BBC Verify logo

UK explores retaliatory action against US tariffs

3 April 2025 at 20:20
House of Commons Jonathan Reynolds in the House of CommonsHouse of Commons

The UK government is launching a consultation with businesses on how taking retaliatory tariff measures against the US would impact them.

It comes after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs of 10% on all UK imports.

The government has previously said it would not be rushed into a knee-jerk response to Trump's imposition of tariffs on its trading partners around the world while insisting all options were on the table.

But in a toughening of this stance, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told MPs he would "seek the views of UK stakeholders over four weeks until 1 May 2025 on products that could be potentially included in any UK tariff response".

He said talks were ongoing with the US government to secure an economic deal aimed at avoiding or reducing tariffs but warned that the UK "reserves the right to take any action we deem necessary if a deal is not secured".

In the event of reaching a deal with the US, the consultation with businesses would be paused, he added.

Speaking in the House of Commons, he said the fact the US had put lower tariffs on the UK compared to other countries "vindicated the pragmatic approach the government has taken". However, he said he was "disappointed" by the increase.

Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith questioned Reynolds' claim that the government's approach had been "vindicated".

"The government got no special favours," he said noting that the UK was facing the same tariffs as more than 125 other countries and territories including the Congo and the Christmas Islands.

He said the EU was being hit by 20% tariffs and the UK's lower rate of 10% was actually a vindication of those who "were pilloried and abused" for backing Brexit.

"They [Labour] should regret the 48 times they voted to stay in Europe and thank us for getting Brexit done."

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Trump was telling the UK he would only lower tariffs "if you lower your standards".

"If the government gives in to Trump's threats it will only encourage him to use the same bullying tactics again and again."

She reiterated her party's call for an "economic coalition of the willing" against the tariffs.

In addition to the 10% tariffs, a 25% tariff has been put on UK car exports, as well as steel and aluminium products.

The UK exported almost £60bn worth of goods to the US last year, mainly machinery, cars and pharmaceuticals.

The government's official forecaster estimates a worst-case scenario trade war could reduce UK economic growth by 1% and wipe out the £9.9bn of economic headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave herself at last week's Spring Statement.

It could mean that in order to meet her own fiscal rules, she would have to raise taxes or make cuts to government spending.

What the president announced - and why it matters

3 April 2025 at 20:28
Watch: Three things to know about Trump's tariffs announcement

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on goods from countries across the world, on what he called "Liberation Day".

He says the move will make America wealthy again, but economists warn that prices could rise for Americans and fears of a global trade war have grown.

What are tariffs and which countries is Trump targeting?

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods imported from other countries. Companies bringing the goods into the country pay the amount, typically a percentage of the goods' value, to the government.

Trump has announced a 10% "baseline" tariff on all imports to the US – this is what the UK will face.

But 60 countries will be hit with higher rates of up to 50%, including Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Bangladesh. Countries in the European Union are facing a 20% tariff. The tariffs are set to take effect in days.

Trump also confirmed previously announced tariffs on specific goods, including 25% on steel, aluminium and foreign-made cars.

Read more:

Why is Trump so keen to use tariffs?

Trump says "tariff" is his favourite word, and since the 1980s he has held a strong belief that the taxes can boost the US economy.

He believes they will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, and increase the amount of tax raised. Trump also wants to reduce the gap between the value of US goods imported and exported.

The White House said the measures were necessary because countries were taking advantage of the US by imposing their own high tariffs and other trade barriers.

"For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike," Trump said as he announced the tariffs.

However, Trump is taking an enormous risk upon which he is staking his presidency, our North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher writes.

If successful, the move could fundamentally reshape the global economic order. Trump promises that it will rebuild American manufacturing and make the country more self-reliant.

But it risks alienating allies, while economists warn it could raise prices and threaten a global recession.

A messy global trade war looks inevitable, suggests the BBC's economics editor Faisal Islam.

Trump's decision to take tariff revenues to a level beyond those seen during the 1930s will mean huge changes to world trade patterns, he says.

Read more:

Watch: Key moments in Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement

Will prices go up for US consumers?

Economists warn this is likely because companies are likely to pass the increased cost of imported goods onto their customers. They could also reduce imports, meaning fewer products are available - putting further pressure on prices.

To raise the revenue Trump is hoping for, US consumers are going to have to swallow rises and keep on buying items made in other countries in similar quantities as now, says the BBC's deputy economics editor Dharshini David.

And as she points out, history shows the frontline casualties tend to be consumers, due to reduced choice and higher prices, and exporters.

"Growth, jobs and price stability are in the firing line," she writes.

Cars, lumber used to build houses, beer, whisky and tequila, and avocados are among the goods that could become more expensive.

Read more:

How is the world reacting to Trump's tariffs?

Global stockmarkets fell after tariffs were announced and a series of world leaders condemned the measures.

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said "the global economy will massively suffer" and that "the consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe".

EU countries are finalising a response to 25% steel and aluminium tariffs, which have already been introduced, and could announce further measures.

It has promised to protect European businesses, including Germany's car industry, Italy's luxury goods and France's wine and champagne producers.

China has promised "resolute countermeasures", which are likely to hurt US companies trying to sell into the huge Chinese market.

However, Trump's tariffs may also benefit China by allowing President Xi Jinping to portray his country as a champion of free trade, the BBC's China correspondent Stephen McDonell says. Countries could be encouraged to build or strengthen their trade relationships with China.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged the economy will be hurt by the latest tariffs but promised to react with "cool and calm heads".

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told MPs the government would launch a consultation to explore how retaliatory tariff measures against US products could affect British firms.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said the tariffs will "fundamentally change the international trading system".

He said Canada would retaliate against US tariffs soon, "with purpose and with force", to protect workers and strength the economy.

Read more:

How tariffs could affect UK households - and their money

The UK is now facing a 10% tariff on all goods heading to the US but there's a lot of uncertainty about what it could mean for the UK itself:

Prices could rise – or fall

Once tariffs are in place, the value of the dollar could strengthen. That might push up import costs for UK firms buying goods, which could then be passed on to consumers through higher prices.

But some economists say prices might actually drop at first. That's because firms that usually sell to the US might start sending their goods to countries like the UK instead – possibly leading to a surge of cheaper goods here.

Your job could be affected

Higher prices might lead workers to ask for bigger pay rises. If UK companies see their profits squeezed, job cuts could follow. More than 25,000 jobs in the car manufacturing sector could be at risk.

Interest rates could stay high

Rates are currently at 4.5%, and economists had expected two cuts this year. But if inflation rises because of higher prices, rates might stay higher for longer.

Read more

Prince Harry hopes watchdog will uncover 'truth' in charity row

3 April 2025 at 21:19
Reuters Prince Harry in front of a banner for the Sentebale charityReuters
The Sentebale charity co-founded by Prince Harry has been caught up in a dispute

The Charity Commission is to examine the bitter dispute that led to the Duke of Sussex and several others resigning from the charity he co-founded.

The watchdog announced it had begun a "regulatory compliance case" involving Sentebale, following concerns raised by its head Sophie Chandauka.

Ms Chandauka told the BBC she welcomed the move by the commission, which comes after she said she had "blown the whistle" on issues including bullying and harassment, and warned of the prince's "toxicity" for the charity.

Sources close to the founders and former trustees of Sentebale have previously rejected the allegations and said they "look forward to the adjudication of the truth".

The Charity Commission's announcement is the first step in assessing the complaints and allegations over what has happened at Sentebale, which was founded in 2006 to help children in southern Africa affected by HIV and Aids.

It will then decide whether inquiries need to be escalated.

An acrimonious boardroom battle led to Prince Harry, his co-founder Prince Seeiso of Lesotho and trustees resigning from their roles after Ms Chandauka had resisted attempts to remove her as chair.

Ms Chandauka previously said she had reported the trustees to the Charity Commission, and made a whistleblower complaint about issues including what she described as an abuse of power, bullying, sexism and racism.

On Thursday, Ms Chandauka said in a statement that the concerns brought to the commission included "governance, administration and management matters".

The Sentebale head said she hoped the public and donors would now see there was a new board of trustees "acting appropriately to demonstrate and ensure good governance and a healthy culture".

Insiders have claimed personality clashes and tensions around leadership had added to Sentebale's challenges - and the watchdog is likely to hear financial concerns from some of those formerly involved with running the charity.

"It is devastating that the relationship between the charity's trustees and the chair of the board broke down beyond repair, creating an untenable situation," those trustees leaving the charity said a statement.

Among the likely claims are that £500,000 of Sentebale's money was spent on consultants in a strategy to get donations from wealthy individuals and foundations in the US, but which sources close to the former trustees say had not delivered adequate results.

The financial fears come despite the charity receiving an extra £1.2m from Prince Harry's earnings from his best-selling memoir Spare.

A Sentebale spokeswoman rejected the claim that £500,000 had been spent on US consultants - and defended its approach to seeking new funds for the charity. Sources also claim Ms Chandauka had raised funding to cover the cost of the consultants and that her own family had become significant donors to the charity.

Sentebale told the BBC it had hired a US firm called Lebec to help build a new fundraising strategy, and that by October 2024 a team of six consultants had set up 65 key relationships with potential donors, who might help Sentebale in the future.

It said the 12-month deal with Lebec, a women-led strategy firm, had successfully delivered links to "high-net-worth individuals, family offices, corporations, foundations and partner non-profits".

"Lebec provided the positioning strategy, the tools, and the insights to enter the US market successfully and with credibility," a spokeswoman for Sentebale said.

The one-off donation from Prince Harry from his Spare book was "incredibly useful" but did not represent a long-term "funding pipeline", said Sentebale.

The dispute has become increasingly personal.

Ms Chandauka argued the controversy around Prince Harry leaving the UK had become a barrier to potential donors.

She said the "toxicity" of Prince Harry's brand was the "number one risk for this organisation".

Ms Chandauka also spoke about a dispute over a video at a fundraising polo match, where it had been claimed Meghan was manoeuvring her out of the way during a prize-giving ceremony.

"Prince Harry asked me to issue some sort of a statement in support of the duchess and I said I wouldn't," said Ms Chandauka.

Sources close to Prince Harry and Meghan have rejected suggestions there was any conflict or anything negative about how the prize line-up was organised, saying it had been misrepresented.

They say the full video with sound shows Meghan politely helping the group get ready for the photo by asking: "Do you want to come over here?".

Ms Chandauka says she and her leadership team are focusing on the day-to-day operations of the charity, and looking forward to working with their supporters as "we recalibrate for an ambitious future".

Government backs plans for Luton airport expansion

3 April 2025 at 21:37
BBC/Danny Fullbrook The front of London Luton Airport. A large black building with a large illuminated LLA and "London Luton Airport" written on it in white font.BBC/Danny Fullbrook
London Luton Airport's owners believe the expansion scheme will generate 11,000 new jobs

The government has approved plans to expand London Luton Airport.

Luton Rising, the airport's owners, wanted to increase airport capacity from 18 million annual passengers to 32 million by 2043.

This would involve building a new terminal, new taxiways and increasing the capacity in the existing terminal.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander approved the proposals despite the Planning Inspectorate recommending she reject them over environmental concerns.

Luton Rising An artist impression of the new terminal at Luton AirportLuton Rising
The expansion plans include a new terminal building

Due to the scale of the project, the airport had to submit a Development Consent Order to the Secretary of State for Transport for a final decision.

The decision had been delayed three times - most recently so newly appointed Alexander could have more time to consider the application.

Paul Kehoe, the independent chair of Luton Rising which is owned by Luton Borough Council, welcomed the approval which could bring "significant economic, employment and social benefits for our town".

He said: "At a new capacity of 32 million passengers per year, our scheme will deliver up to 11,000 new jobs, additional annual economic activity of up to £1.5bn, and up to an additional £13m every year for communities and good causes."

BBC/Janine Machin An easyjet plane is parked on the runway at Luton airport.BBC/Janine Machin
The airport wants to increase passenger capacity to 32 million a year

Andrew Lambourne of campaign group LADACAN, which has opposed the airport's expansion, said the government had ignored local people.

He said: "The government has said it believes in local decision making, yet has ignored the 90% of residents, groups and councils which strongly opposed this application because they know it is out-of-keeping with the area.

"People living under the flight path are already at risk of health damage from being awoken by night flights, so adding 70% more is inhumane.

"And with climate change worsening, the last thing any of us need is 70,000 more aircraft a year creating greenhouse gases and contrails."

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Buyers circle and rumours swirl as TikTok sale deadline looms

3 April 2025 at 20:54
Getty Images An illustration of a hand holding a phone with the TikTok logo in the foreground, while the US flag is in the backgroundGetty Images

The list of would-be buyers for TikTok in the US - both rumoured and confirmed - has grown longer as the deadline for deciding its future looms.

The social media giant faces being shut down in the US unless it sells to an American company by 5 April.

The runners and riders range from US tech giants to the British entrepreneur dubbed "the king of homemade porn".

However, TikTok and its Chinese owner, ByteDance have still not confirmed they are willing to do a deal.

They also continue to reject the reason for the sale - that the US considers their ties to the Chinese government a national security threat.

It is also not clear what exactly would be sold, in particular what would happen to TikTok's algorithim, which decides what content to expose users to, and is considered a big reason for its success.

"TikTok without its algorithm is like Harry Potter without his wand - it's simply not as powerful," said Kelsey Chickering, principal analyst at Forrester Research.

Despite all this uncertainty, Ms Chickering said it was unlikely the app would go offline in the US as it briefly did in January.

"It is highly unlikely that TikTok will go dark again. All signs point to a deal or another extension."

Last-minute bids

As with everything else to do with the app's future, who exactly is attempting to buy it is cloaked in uncertainty.

According to the New York Times, Amazon recently sent a letter to the US Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressing interest.

Amazon declined to comment when approached by BBC News.

Another late-stage bid reportedly came from an app marketing and analytics company called AppLovin.

They have remained similarly tight-lipped on the speculation, though - at least in public.

A third last-minute bidder includes the man once called "the king of homemade porn" by the Sunday Times - British OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely.

His proposed bid - and all the media attention which comes with it - happens to coincide with the relaunch of a company he co-founded in 2022.

How the proposed and then shelved TikTok ban affected US influencers

One confirmed bidder is Perplexity, an AI search startup which counts Amazon's Jeff Bezos among its backers.

The company recently published its "vision" for what its version of TikTok would look like for America.

Another potential investor is Frank McCourt, who founded the Project Liberty organisation in 2021, which aims to give more power to internet users.

He says he would scrap the current algorithm in favour of a far more open version where users have more control over what they see on the platform.

Also part of this bid are Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian and Canadian businessman Kevin O'Leary.

A bid from MrBeast?

According to the Financial Times, a consortium of American businesses is close to getting US government endorsement for a bid - though of course it is up to ByteDance, not the White House, whether they sell or not.

The group includes Trump loyalist Marc Andreessen and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

Oracle already handles the data for TikTok in the US.There are a number of other potential bids which have been mentioned by Donald Trump when he has been asked.

He has said, in responses to questions from reporters, that Elon Musk may be interested in getting hold of TikTok, and has also mentioned Microsoft in the past.

Microsoft had a bid rejected in 2020 when the previous Tump administration explored a TikTok ban which never happened.

YouTuber Jimmy Donaldson, or MrBeast to his millions of fans, has also said he's been contacted by a number of different groups trying to get him to be the face of a new bid.

But whoever ends up being picked by the White House to go forward with a bid will still have to get over the same huge hurdle: how do you buy a company that's not for sale?

British Steel could decide to shut Scunthorpe plant in days

3 April 2025 at 20:31
Getty Images A man in high vis walks toward Scunthorpe steel plantGetty Images

Decisions taken within the next few days will determine whether British Steel's Scunthorpe plant stays open, the BBC understands.

The plant's Chinese owner, Jingye, has cancelled two cargo shipments of coking coal for the site's two blast furnaces and it has not yet paid for iron pellets that are scheduled to arrive next week.

Without coal and iron ore, the blast furnaces will shut down within weeks.

Last week British Steel launched a consultation on the proposed closure of its two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe, putting up to 2,700 jobs at risk.

It has been meeting with the trade unions Community, GMB and Unite.

The GMB's national officer, Charlotte Brumpton-Childs, said that a union meeting with workers on Wednesday had shown that ''Jingye has no intention of running the plant responsibly. Nationalisation is now the only option to save UK steel-making."

Sources close to the consultation accuse Jingye of deliberately undermining talks to save the plant by closing down the supply of raw materials.

A British Steel spokesperson said: "We are not able to comment at this time".

Reuters Scunthorpe steel plantReuters

British Steel has been owned by Jingye since 2020. The Chinese firm says it has invested more than £1.2bn into British Steel to maintain operations and claims it has suffered financial losses of about £700,000 a day.

Zengwei An, the company's chief executive, said the launch of the consultation process had been "a necessary decision given the hugely challenging circumstances the business faces", including the imposition of US tariffs and higher environmental costs.

The BBC reported last week that the company had drawn up a £2bn investment plan and that it had expected the government to contribute half.

The BBC understands that British Steel recently rejected a government offer of £500m.

There are growing calls for the government to nationalise the company.

On Tuesday, North Lincolnshire Council voted unanimously in favour of the company being brought back into public ownership, while last week in Parliament, Conservative MPs and the deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, also called for nationalisation.

Questioned on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning, business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds MP, said he was ''strongly committed to the UK having a steel industry'' and that he was making sure ''we are closely engaged on this issue''.

However declined to comment on reports that public ownership was being actively considered by ministers, saying to BBC Radio 4: "We are talking to the company. It's in private ownership, that is the situation that we have inherited, we are trying to find a way through that."

"I know for the workforce in particular this is a really difficult time,'' he added.

Trump Administration Threatens to Withhold Funds From Public Schools

3 April 2025 at 22:20
State education officials will be required to verify that they have eliminated all programs that promote diversity, equity and inclusion that the administration deems unlawful, according to a new memo.

© Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Education Secretary Linda McMahon at the White House last month. Her department has said that an “assessment of school policies and programs depends on the facts and circumstances of each case.”

World Bank announces multimillion-dollar redress fund after killings and abuse claims at Tanzanian project

3 April 2025 at 20:11
A man raises his arm above a white marker post in an expanse of dried ground with a few trees on the horizon.theguardian.org

The World Bank is embarking on a multimillion-dollar programme in response to alleged human rights abuses against Tanzanian herders during a flagship tourism project it funded for seven years.

Allegations made by pastoralist communities living in and around Ruaha national park include violent evictions, sexual assaults, killings, forced disappearances and large-scale cattle seizures from herders committed by rangers working for the Tanzanian national park authority (Tanapa).

The pastoralists say most of the incidents took place after the bank approved $150m (£116m) for the Resilient Natural Resource Management for Tourism and Growth (Regrow) project September in 2017, aimed at developing tourism in four protected areas in southern Tanzania in a bid to take pressure off heavily touristed northern areas such as Ngorongoro and the Serengeti.

In 2023, two individuals wrote to the bank accusing some Tanapa employees of “extreme cruelty” during cattle seizures and having engaged in “extrajudicial killings” and the “disappearance” of community members.

The Oakland Institute, a US-based thinktank that is advising the communities, and which alerted the World Bank to abuses in April 2023, says Ruaha doubled in size from 1m to more than 2m hectares (2.5m to 5m acres) during the project’s lifetime – a claim the bank denies. It says the expansion took place a decade earlier. Oakland claims 84,000 people from at least 28 villages were affected by the expansion plan.

This week, the bank published a 70-page report following its own investigation, which found “critical failures in the planning and supervision of this project and that these have resulted in serious harm”. The report, published on 2 April, notes that “the project should have recognised that enhancing Tanapa’s capacity to manage the park could potentially increase the likelihood of conflict with communities trying to access the park.”

Anna Bjerde, World Bank managing director of operations, said, “We regret that the Regrow project preparation and supervision did not sufficiently account for project risks, resulting in inadequate mitigation measures to address adverse impacts. This oversight led to the bank overlooking critical information during implementation.”

The report includes recommendations aimed at redressing harms done and details a $2.8m project that will support alternative livelihoods for communities inside and around the park. It will also help fund a Tanzanian NGO that provides legal advice to victims of crime who want to pursue justice through the courts.

A second, much bigger project, understood to be worth $110, will fund alternative livelihoods across the entire country, including Ruaha.

The total investment, thought to be the largest amount the bank has ever allocated to addressing breaches of its policies, is a reflection of the serious nature of the allegations.

The bank had already suspended Regrow funding in April 2024 after its own investigation found the Tanzanian government had violated the bank’s resettlement policy and failed to create a system to report violent incidents or claim redress. The project was cancelled altogether in November 2024. A spokesperson said the bank “remains deeply concerned about the serious nature of the reports of incidents of violence and continues to focus on the wellbeing of affected communities”.

By the time the project was suspended the bank had already disbursed $125m of the $150m allocated to Regrow.

The Oakland Institute estimates that economic damages for farmers and pastoralists affected by livelihood restrictions, run into tens of millions of dollars.

Anuradha Mittal, executive director of the Oakland Institute, said the “scathing” investigation “confirmed the bank’s grave wrongdoing which devastated the lives of communities. Pastoralists and farms who refused to be silenced amid widespread government repression, are now vindicated.”

She added that the bank’s response was “beyond shameful”.

“Suggesting that tens of thousands of people forced out of their land can survive with ‘alternative livelihoods’ such as clean cooking and microfinance is a slap in the face of the victims.”

Inspection panel chair Ibrahim Pam said critical lessons from the Regrow case will be applied to all conservation projects that require resettlement and restrict access to parks, especially those implemented by a law enforcement agency.

Regrow was given the go ahead in 2017. The Oakland Institute described its cancellation by the government in 2024 as a landmark victory, but said communities “remain under siege – still facing evictions, crippling livelihood restrictions and human rights abuses”.

In one village near the southern border of Ruaha, the brother of a young man who was killed three years ago while herding cattle in an area adjacent to the park, said: “It feels like it was yesterday. He had a wife, a family. Now the wife has to look after the child by herself.” He did not want to give his name for fear of reprisal.

Another community member whose husband was allegedly killed by Tanapa staff said: “I feel bad whenever I remember what happened to my husband. We used to talk often. We were friends. I was pregnant with his child when he died. He never saw his daughter. Now I just live in fear of these [Tanapa-employed] people.”

The Oakland Institute said the affected communities reject the bank’s recommendations, and have delivered a list of demands that includes “reverting park boundaries to the 1998 borders they accepted, reparations for livelihood restrictions, the resumption of suspended basic services, and justice for victims of ranger abuse and violence.

“Villagers are determined to continue the struggle for their rights to land and life until the bank finally takes responsibility and remedies the harms it caused.”

The bank has said it has no authority to pay compensation directly.

Wildlife-based tourism is a major component of Tanzania’s economy, contributing more than one quarter of the country’s foreign exchange earnings in 2019. The bank has said any future community resettlement will be the government’s decision.

Additional reporting by Peter Mururi

A metal sign saying Ruaha national parkA herd of elephants crosses and dirt road next to a 4X4A herd of cows grazing on dried grass

“德国经济的分水岭”:访德国弗莱堡大学经济学教授拉尔斯·P·菲尔德

在德国,建设一座桥梁通常要花6-10年,这还不包括建设需要的时间,只是前期的走流程。

统计数据显示,德国在AI方面专利数仅次于美国和中国,在全球排名第三,所以并不是那么糟。

人口老龄化会导致社会对于创新抵抗力增加,并不是说老年人不能再创新,而是担心他们的知识过时,会被新的知识替代。

南方周末记者 徐庭芳

发自:上海

责任编辑:顾策

德国新政的涟漪,正在蔓延。

2025年3月18日,德国联邦议院通过一项巨额财政方案草案,预计提供5000亿欧元特别基金,主要用于基础设施建设,并批准修改《基本法》中的“债务刹车”(Debt Brake)条款,放宽对国防开支的债务限制。

“债务刹车”于2009年写入德国《基本法》,目的是应对债务危机,要求联邦政府每年结构性新增债务不得超过国内生产总值(GDP)的0.35%,有效防止了德国政府债务失控。2023年,德国政府债务占GDP的比例约为63%,在发达国家中处于低位。

但紧缩的财政货币政策导致公共投资长期不足,新政有望帮助德国乃至欧盟经济摆脱衰退困境。

2025年3月28日,拉尔斯·P·菲尔德(Lars P.Feld)来到上海,他刚刚发布新书《经济学的未来:来自德国学术界的回答》。活动后,南方周末记者专访了菲尔德教授。

菲尔德现任德国弗莱堡大学经济学教授、弗莱堡欧肯研究所所长,曾任德国经济专家委员会(“五贤人”)前主席、德国前财政部长林德纳首席顾问。“债务刹车”制度正是出自菲尔德之手。

拉尔斯·P·菲尔德(Lars P.Feld)。图片来源:德国经济专家委员会官网。

长期以来,德国政府对公共财政赤字相当克制,这导致德国的基础设施投资并不完善,菲尔德用德国火车举例,“从法兰克福坐火车到柏林,准点率就像中彩票一样”。他总结,上一届政府(朔尔茨政府)的经济政策主要包括补贴干预和监管政策,以及抬高政府支出,更高的债务和更高的税收等等,但这些并非解决德国经济问题的“良药”。

“我们需要采取不同的方式,减少各种成本,同时减少政府支出,一种完全不同于上一届政府的政策。”他指出。

自德国宣布规模空前的财政扩张计划以来,德国10年期国债收益率一度接近3%,创下自2023年全球债券抛售以来的新高,推动其他欧洲国家的借贷成本水涨船高。

新政府仍将面临巨大的挑战:经济连年萎缩、全球需求疲软、能源危机等因素仍继续影响德国经济。美国多变的关税政策、外交政策,也将欧盟这一盟友“越推越远”。

德国经济的“分水岭”

南方周末:你怎么形容新政府提出的巨额财政计划?这是一项革命性的改变吗?

菲尔德:“革命”这个词有些用力过猛,我更愿意形容它是一个“分水岭”。我不确定这对整个欧元区意味着什么,但它很有可能会给我们带来麻烦,给欧洲央行带来更多压力。

一些南欧国家考

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校对:星歌

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震中实皆: 家园虽被毁,救援物资紧缺有所缓解

(本文首发于2025年4月3日《南方周末》)

南方周末记者 翁洹

发自:缅甸实皆、曼德勒

责任编辑:李楠

当地时间2025年4月1日,排队等待领取食物和饮用水等生活物资的小沙弥。 (南方周末记者 翁洹/图)

当地时间2025年4月1日,缅甸强震发生后的第四天,南方周末记者第二次进入实皆市,发现与前一天相比,在市区里发放救援和生活物资的人员数量明显多了起来。

当地时间2025年4月1日,一名沙弥尼站在倒塌的寺院前面。 (南方周末记者 翁洹/图)

实皆是一座很小的城市,走在街头能够明显感觉到,这边倒塌的房子比一江之隔的曼德勒要更多。很多建筑坍塌成了废墟,砖块和梁柱横七竖八地堆在街头。大量房屋倒塌导致许多灾民

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特朗普关税风暴,全球贸易版图会如何剧震?|说政经事

南方周末特约撰稿 林雪萍

责任编辑:张玥

美国迈阿密。视觉中国/图

美国迈阿密。视觉中国/图

美国“解放日”,全球陷落区。特朗普“对等关税”的重锤终于落下来了,各个国家地区几乎无一幸免。

特朗普称之为“美国解放日”,认为这将为美国带来制造业回归的黄金时代。对等关税的出台,就像突然打开的高压水龙头,势不可挡地涌向四方。

印度26%,孟加拉国37%。南亚失陷。

越南46%,柬埔寨49%,泰国36%,菲律宾也有17%。东南亚失陷。

日本24%,韩国25%。东亚失陷。

欧洲20%。欧洲失陷。

而中国为34%。虽然看上去不是最多的,但2025年以来增加的20%依然存在。还有原来的关税叠加,最高的产品甚至可能达到79%。

这像是一场地球表层的9级大地震,整个全球贸易格局经历了二战以来最为激烈的晃动。这样的关税鸿沟,没有一个国家能够招架得住。它更大的破坏力在于,人们脑海中习以为常的秩序被彻底颠覆。

整个世界进入了“信息迷雾期”。按照

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校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

江泽民故居面向社会公众开放

By: 新华社
3 April 2025 at 16:46

新华社

4月3日,江泽民故居组织参观活动,江泽民亲属和生前身边工作人员代表,江苏省干部群众代表等参加。据悉,江泽民故居于近日面向社会公众开放。

故居位于江苏省扬州市广陵区东关街道东圈门16号,分为东、西两路院落。西路院落是江泽民童年和青少年时期(1929-1940年)与家人一起租住生活的场所,东路院落为故居基本陈列场所,展陈以江泽民的生平为重点,分为“伟大光辉的一生”“爱国知识分子家庭”“扬州永远是故乡”三部分。故居对外开放采取分时段预约方式,每周二至周日开放。

网络编辑:明非

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