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Today — 10 January 2025News

加拿大将选新总理 外国干预问题引发忧虑

10 January 2025 at 03:17

加拿大总理特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)不敌党内要求其下台的声浪,日前宣布愿辞去党魁职务。执政的加拿大自由党将举行新党魁选举,选出的新党魁也将成为加拿大新一任总理。然而,各界批评自由党党魁选举规则过度宽松,可能给外国势力打开干预之门。

这几天,加拿大自由党团的会议对于如何举行党魁选举发生激烈讨论,现任党魁、总理特鲁多已承诺等待新党魁选出后就会交棒。但根据自由党2016年修改的选举规则,只要年满14岁,“通常居住在加拿大”(ordinarily resides in Canada)的任何人,填表成为自由党党员就可以参与选举投票。

自由党国会议员萨瑞(Randeep Sarai)在党团会议上提出应该修改选举规则,防堵这个轻易让外国政府干预选举的大漏洞:“我们有300万的临时外籍劳工和国际学生,外国政府很容易就操弄手段达到干预选举的目的。现在世界变得很多,很多情况你预料不到。”

安大略理工大学教授、加拿大政府前安全问题分析师莫利纳罗(Dennis Molinaro)也批评自由党选举机制太离谱,因为若投票时拿不出居住证明都没关系,只要找到另一人做担保就可以投票。

加拿大联邦政坛大震荡,自由党松散的选举机制令外界担心,该党可能会选出一个受外国干预的总理候选人。
加拿大联邦政坛大震荡,自由党松散的选举机制令外界担心,该党可能会选出一个受外国干预的总理候选人。
(路透社图片)

外国政府干预加拿大的问题在过去几年不断发酵,尤其中国曾两度干预加拿大联邦大选,导致加拿大启动了外国干预独立调查听证会。法官霍格(Marie-Josée Hogue)在调查报告中也确认外国干预的确存在,其中还提到有证据显示,与中国政府有联系的人员组织了留学生,于2019年参加自由党多伦多选区的党内提名战,并让这些中国学生投票支持北京青睐的候选人董晗鹏(Han Dong),最终董晗鹏顺利当选国会议员。

法官霍格建议,政党应该要在选举规则中建立更严谨的门槛。但目前,自由党表明无意修改规章。

前保守党国会议员赵锦荣说,加拿大保守党和新民主党都规定,只有公民或永久居民才能参与党内选举,自由党松散的做法非常危险。目前的局势是自由党仍是执政党,所以谁当选党魁就立刻成为加拿大总理:“你投票不是选一个自由党党魁那么简单,你是在选一个人立刻成为加拿大总理。你选其他党的党魁,他们是要经过加拿大人投票洗礼,他才能够成功当总理。”

加拿大首席选举官佩罗 (Stéphane Perrault) 表示,减少外国干预的一种方法是将投票权限制在公民手中,因为非公民更容易受到外国政府的压力。

加拿大最大报纸《环球邮报》(Globe and Mail)1月8日在社论中也批评自由党罔顾外国干预的问题,批评其政党事务与民意严重脱节。

责编:何平 网编:洪伟

© 视频截图

加拿大总理特鲁多1月6日宣布,在自由党选出新党魁后,他将辞去该党党魁和加拿大总理职务。

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The effort to ban TikTok isn’t about what’s on the platform but rather who runs it.

© Illustration by George Douglas; source photographs by Alfred Gescheidt and ullstein bild/Getty Images

Henry Zeffman: Market trouble threatens Labour's economic plans

9 January 2025 at 22:48
Reuters Rachel Reeves, a woman with a dark bob hair style, and a blue suit, stands in front of two microphonesReuters
Rachel Reeves may soon have a big decision to make

Nothing has been more important to the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer than economic credibility.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out clear fiscal rules, such as getting debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament, and she has made sticking to these rules a crucial test of the government's credibility.

That's what makes the recent rise in government borrowing costs potentially so dangerous for Reeves, the Treasury and - arguably - Sir Keir Starmer's entire political project.

If the government has to spend a lot more money paying interest on debt, then it is less likely to meet its rules.

On current trends, 26 March is set to become a critical date.

That is when the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will deliver its latest forecasts, including an assessment of whether the government is on course to meet its fiscal rules or not.

Suppose the OBR says the government is not on course. It's important to stress this may not happen - but it is something that senior government figures are growing more jittery about by the minute.

Reeves would have a decision to make.

She has previously committed only to make significant tax and spend announcements once a year at the autumn Budget.

A Treasury spokesperson said last night that "meeting the fiscal rules is non-negotiable".

That would suggest she would have to break her commitment and announce, or at least pave the way for, measures to bring the government in line with its rules.

What could that mean?

In principle, it could mean either tax rises or spending restraint.

In practice, given the significant increase in employers' National Insurance rates in October, it would mean spending restraint - Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, practically said as much in the Commons today.

To be clear, spending restraint would not necessarily mean spending cuts, just much lower spending increases than would otherwise happen.

This is where economics could collide with politics fast.

It's all very well for the Treasury to take measures to soothe the bond markets, where government debt is traded.

But just because a strategy is the most economically viable available, that doesn't mean it is politically viable in a Labour Party made up of MPs who have spent the past 14 years decrying Conservative austerity.

Many Labour MPs, among them cabinet ministers, believe there is little fat left to trim from the state.

They were already anxious about a tough multi-year spending review, expected to conclude around June, before borrowing costs rose.

There is almost a risk of a paradox: that any acts of spending restraint visible and significant enough to calm the markets might, by definition, be too visible and too significant to fly politically among Labour MPs - especially after the controversy of the cut to the winter fuel payment for pensioners.

Labour figures argue that successive Conservative governments dealt with similar problems by piling the most painful spending measures towards the end of five-year forecast periods - hoping that by the year at which those "pencilled-in" measures were reached, circumstances would have changed.

But some also voice a fear that - precisely because of the Conservatives having done this - repeating the trick would be given short shrift by the markets: the fiscal sins of previous governments being visited on this new one.

Unlike recent Conservative debates on economic policy, the Labour Party has one big asset.

In 2022, when Liz Truss decided to go big, with a radical tax-cutting agenda, the Conservative Party had no consensus on how to approach the economy.

The 2022 leadership election in which Truss defeated Rishi Sunak was essentially a clash of economic ideas.

She won that argument with Tory members, having lost it among the party's MPs - and then lost it unambiguously with the public and the markets within 49 days.

The Labour Party, give or take some sotto voce debates about tax for the wealthiest and welfare for the poorest, does broadly have an economic consensus, especially when it comes to what the Conservatives did wrong.

But what if these shared beliefs in how best to run the economy turn out to be products of the low interest rate era?

And how do you maintain that consensus if the markets disagree?

This is a political worst case scenario for Reeves.

Asking influential Labour figures about the markets this morning was to be told that lines go down as well as up, that the markets can move the other way in rapid time.

But all acknowledge that it is a bad sign when the value of the currency goes down at the same time as the cost of borrowing goes up.

And all are watching anxiously to see how things develop.

As one government source said to me: "It's definitely not tin hat time yet."

UK borrowing costs rising - what does it mean for me?

10 January 2025 at 00:18
Getty Images Woman points at financial graph on tablet as colleagues in meeting look onGetty Images

Government borrowing costs have been steadily rising in recent months, and have now hit their highest levels for several years.

Why is this happening and how does it affect ordinary people?

What's happening in the bond markets?

A bond is a bit like an IOU that can be traded in the financial markets.

Governments generally spend more than they raise in tax so they borrow money to fill the gap, usually by selling bonds to investors.

As well as eventually paying back the value of the bond, governments pay interest at regular intervals so investors receive a stream of future payments.

UK government bonds - known as "gilts" - are normally considered very safe, with little risk the money will not be repaid. They are mainly bought by financial institutions, such as pension funds.

Interest rates - known as the yield - on government bonds have been going up since around August.

The yield on a 10-year bond has surged to its highest level since 2008, while the yield on a 30-year bond is at its highest since 1998, meaning it costs the government more to borrow over the long term.

The pound has also fallen in value against the dollar over the last few days. On Tuesday it was worth $1.25 but is currently trading at $1.23.

Why are bond yields rising?

Yields are not just rising in the UK. Borrowing costs have also been going up in the US, Japan, Germany and France, for instance.

There is a great deal of uncertainty around what will happen when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later this month. He has pledged to bring in tariffs on goods entering the US and to cut taxes.

Investors worry that this will lead to inflation being more persistent than previously thought and therefore interest rates will not come down as quickly as they had expected.

But in the UK there are also concerns about the economy underperforming.

Inflation is at its highest for eight months - hitting 2.6% in November - above the Bank of England's 2% target - while the economy has shrunk for two months in a row.

Analysts say it is these wider concerns about the strength of the economy that is driving down the pound, which typically rises when borrowing costs increase.

How does it affect me?

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has pledged that all day-to-day spending should be funded from taxes, not from borrowing.

But if she needs more money to pay back higher borrowing costs, that uses up more tax revenue, leaving less money to spend on other things.

Economists have warned that this could mean spending cuts which would affect public services, and tax rises that could hit people's pay or businesses' ability to grow and hire more people.

The government has committed to having only one fiscal event a year, where it can raise taxes, and this is not expected until the autumn.

So if higher borrowing costs persist, we may be more likely to see cuts to spending before that.

Some people may be wondering about the impact of higher gilt yields on the mortgage market, particularly after what happened after Liz Truss's mini-Budget in September 2022.

Although yields are higher now than they were then, they have been creeping up slowly over a period of months, whereas in 2022 they shot up over a couple of days. That speedy rise led to lenders quickly pulling deals while they tried to work out what interest rate to charge.

Analysts and brokers say the current unease in the markets is having some effect on the pricing of mortgages. Many were expecting to see some falls in rates at the start of the year but instead lenders are holding off from cuts to see what happens.

What happens next?

The Treasury has said there is no need for an emergency intervention in the financial markets.

It has said it will not make any spending or tax announcements ahead of the official borrowing forecast from its independent watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), due on 26 March.

If the OBR says the chancellor is still on track to meet her self-imposed fiscal rules then that might settle the markets.

However, if the OBR were to say because of slower growth and higher-than-expected interest rates, the chancellor were likely to break her fiscal rules then that would potentially be a problem for Reeves.

Winter pressure bad as height of pandemic, NHS says

9 January 2025 at 21:18
Getty Images A&E signGetty Images

Flu cases are skyrocketing, causing huge problems for hospitals, NHS England bosses are warning.

Last week the number of patients in hospital in England with the virus topped 5,400 a day on average – around 1,000 higher than a week before.

NHS England's Prof Julian Redhead said cases were going up at a "concerning rate" with hospitals "bursting with patients".

He said this was causing delays in A&E and for ambulances as staff struggled to cope with the demands being placed on them.

It comes as around 20 NHS trusts have been forced to declare critical incidents because of the pressures they are facing.

Prof Redhead, NHS England's national director for emergency care, said the "skyrocketing" flu cases came on top of continued pressure being caused by other viruses, including Covid and the vomiting bug Norovirus.

He apologised for the problems being seen, saying staff were frustrated with the quality of care being provided under such pressures.

"I'm really proud of the way my colleagues have responded to the pressure...but nobody wants to see delays in the ambulances going out and the delays in patients getting to beds that they need. No one will be proud of that system which is occurring."

The number of patients with flu is more than three times higher than they were this time last year – and are now on par with what was seen in early 2023 – one of the worst flu seasons for many years.

Average flu cases in acute hospitals in England have reached 5,408 in the first week of January, up from 4,469 the previous week and almost at the peak of the last bad flu year in 2022-23.

Along with the bad weather and flooding, it has meant the NHS has had a "brutal" start to the new year, according to Saffron Cordery, of NHS Providers, which represents health managers.

And she added: "We're not out of the woods yet. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.

"Stresses and strains on emergency services are a huge concern with many patients facing long waits for ambulances and in A&Es."

'Like Victorian workhouse'

Liz Shearer is just one of many people who have shared their experiences with the BBC of the care being provided.

Her elderly mother spent more than 30 hours in a corridor on a hospital trolley last week because there were no bays available. She was taken to hospital after collapsing at her care home.

"I've never experienced anything like that in my life. It was like a Victorian workhouse. The nurses were saying how bad it is, and they were saying they just had to crack on with it."

Yvonne Wolstenholme spent 13 hours in A&E after she was sent there by her GP because she was struggling to breathe.

"It was absolutely heaving," she said. "Staff are snowed under, they really are rushing around like headless chickens and it's not because of a lack of skill, it's the lack of time to see individual patients.

"While I was there, there were at least eight ambulance crews waiting to hand over patients and obviously they are not out on the streets if they are there waiting."

Chart showing percentage of people seen at A&E within four hours each month in England. The latest proportion is 71% for December 2024. The target of 95% was last hit in July 2015.

Official figures released on Thursday showed just how much the emergency care system was struggling.

  • The average ambulance response time for immediately life-threatening category one calls, such as cardiac arrests, was 8 mins 40 seconds in December. The target is 7 minutes
  • For category two calls, which includes heart attacks and strokes, it was 47 mins 26 seconds. The target is 18 minutes
  • Just 71% of patients visiting A&E were seen and treated or admitted within the target time of four hours

But there was more positive news on routine treatment, with the hospital waiting list falling to 7.48 million at the end of November – down from 7.54 million the month before and below the record-high of 7.77 million in September 2023.

Similar pressures are being experienced in other parts of the UK with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all missing their key targets.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine in Scotland said this week hosptials there were "gridlocked" and in the middle of their own winter crisis.

Dr Tim Cooksley, of of the Society for Acute Medicine, said the NHS was experiencing an "appalling" winter crisis.

"The reality for patients and staff is corridors full of patients experiencing degrading care, being treated in the backs of ambulances because there is simply no space in hospital and the immense physical and emotional harm that inevitably results.

"The fundamental issue is that there is a continued lack of capacity throughout the year - a tough flu season must not be used as a political excuse for the current situation."

Man's fails in claim to recover £600m Bitcoin hard drive from tip

10 January 2025 at 00:38
BBC James Howells listening to reporter who is facing him, with a camera man to the left of the reporter. Mr Howells is wearing a white shirt and black tie with a white pattern and a grey checked waistcoat and navy blazer.BBC
James Howells tried to sue Newport council to gain access to the landfill site or receive £495m in compensation

A judge has thrown out a man's attempt to sue a council to recover from a rubbish tip a Bitcoin hard drive which he says is now worth about £600m.

James Howells had argued that his former partner had mistakenly dumped the hard drive containing a Bitcoin wallet in 2013, and he wanted to access the site and recover the cryptocurrency.

But Newport council asked a High Court judge to strike out Mr Howells' legal action to access the landfill or get £495m in compensation.

Judge Keyser KC said there were no "reasonable grounds" for bringing the claim and "no realistic prospect" of succeeding at a full trial.

During the hearing in December the court heard how Mr Howells had been an early adopter of Bitcoin and had successfully mined the cryptocurrency.

As the value of his missing digital wallet soared, Mr Howells organised a team of experts to attempt to locate, recover and access the hard drive.

He had repeatedly asked permission from the council for access to the site, and had offered it a share of the missing Bitcoin if it was successfully recovered.

Mr Howells successfully "mined" the Bitcoin in 2009 for almost nothing, and says he forgot about it altogether when he threw it out.

The value of the cryptocurrency rose by more than 80% in 2024, and Mr Howells believes his 8,000 bitcoins to now be worth more than £600m.

But James Goudie KC, for the council, argued that existing laws meant the hard drive had become its property when it entered the landfill site. It also said that its environmental permits would forbid any attempt to excavate the site to search for the hard drive.

A photo of a phone with the value of what the Bitcoin is now worth. It says it is £601,277,316.
The above picture shows the current value of James Howells' bitcoin wallet which he says is in Newport landfill

The offer to donate 10% of the Bitcoin to the local community was encouraging the council to "play fast and loose" by "signing up for a share of the action," said Mr Goudie.

In a written judgement the judge said: "I also consider that the claim would have no realistic prospect of succeeding if it went to trial and that there is no other compelling reason why it should be disposed of at trial."

The landfill holds more than 1.4m tonnes of waste, but Mr Howells said he had narrowed the hard drive's location to an area consisting of 100,000 tonnes.

Mr Howells has speculated that, by next year, the Bitcoin on his hard drive could be worth £1bn.

He told BBC Wales outside the court hearing in Cardiff last December that he believed in his case and was willing to take it all the way to Supreme Court.

House Passes Bill to Impose Sanctions on I.C.C. Officials for Israeli Prosecutions

10 January 2025 at 03:15
The action put the measure on track for likely enactment given strong support for it among Republicans, who now control the Senate, and President-elect Donald J. Trump.

© Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, in Paris last year. Congressional Republicans have been trying to crack down on the court since May, when Mr. Khan announced he was seeking warrants for Israeli leaders.

评论 | 严歌苓:心疫

By: 严歌苓
10 January 2025 at 02:32

在美国新奥尔良以卡车袭击人群和在拉斯维加斯自爆的两件跨年事件,根据肇事人遗留的理念信息判断,是两起性质不同的恶性事故。经过几天的思考,我觉得它们反映了同一种危险的精神症状,那症状发自得病的心灵。

人是群居动物。自从智人诞生,二十几万年来,人类通过伦常进化,渐渐以家庭、血缘、宗族、邻里、同学、朋友形成小群,从而组合成社会、民族的大群。人的不断进化,依赖于个体之间的沟通和协调。沟通是一切合作的基础。哪怕是导致了战事的失败沟通,也不失为有来有往的交道。

记得我童年时期,孩子的群落里就有领导者和从众者,有霸凌者和受欺者,在每一次“官兵捉强盗”的游戏中,或踢毽子、跳房子的玩耍中进行着相克相生、适者生存小生态。就是那样的孩提小生态,也无时不刻地充满沟通和协调。现在我们还能看到街巷里,小区里,左邻右舍的孩子们的以游戏玩耍建立的小社会吗?我在中国的小区里,极少看到我们童年那种玩嗨的孩子群。在国外,这种自发的游戏玩耍也属罕见。要玩儿,可以,家长们须提前预订时间,确定人员和地点。而孩提之乐,不就乐在随性和自发?孩子们交往的最可爱之处,不就是无话不谈,真诚交流吗?而现在的孩子们,从两三岁开始,就成了低头族,一个手机就是他们的整个世界。倒是省了打架吵闹,省了家长们的是非扯皮,但他们长着长着,就长成了沟通无能的社交残障者。他们无论多苦闷,多需要排解苦闷,都不能像我们当年那样,投入到叽叽喳喳的小伙伴群里,或倾诉,或嘀咕,或被嘲笑一通,亦或寻衅打一架,借题发挥地宣泄掉浑身胀满的压力。

从最新信息看,贾巴尔(Shamsud-Din Jabbar)和李维斯博格(Matthew Livelsberger)的他杀和自杀,都是孤狼行动。前者为ISIS(伊斯兰国)理念所影响,实施的无差别屠杀跟所有恐怖活动手段相同。后者是对现实彻底绝望,以自身之死进谏世人。两人身份的相似处,就是他们都有着从军作战的经历。似乎曾与死亡多次擦肩而过,便将生命贬值,便看淡了死亡,包括无辜他人的死亡。二人还有个相似处,就是与家人关系的危机,以及私人生活的失意。他们内心感到的孤绝,不能通过与人交流沟通而排泄出去,只能原路返回,再被内心回收。被多次回收的怨愤和迷思以及执念,逐渐变质,成为以自杀加他杀来终极宣泄的毒素。因为不交流沟通,所以没有共情力,同情心,最终变成极致的自私者:世界因我存在而存在,若世界不以我的意志而转移,我宁可毁灭这世界。试想他俩若有一个半个知己,哪怕一个熟人或邻居,能借一只同情的耳朵,去聆听他们的苦楚憋屈,那耳朵等于一个盛装他们心灵呕吐物的器皿,事情会不同吗?

这种“器皿”我曾经遇到过多个,对我呕吐出的最危险的念头,都是默默盛装,最多给于三两句劝慰。应该说,这两个失败人生的最失败之处,是没有找到或错过了这样的聆听者。用同样寓意,便是错失了盛装他们心灵呕吐物的同情之耳。这样的同情之耳来自一颗共情之心,有时它属于终身伴侣,有时属于亲密朋友,他们共同的特点,是绝不仲裁你,任你吐尽内心淤积。这是我们当今生活中最大的缺失,这缺失在男性中尤为显著,因为男人们都争当硬汉,将诉苦抱怨视为软弱,于是死扛着即将崩塌的积雪,只等最后一片雪花飘落以触发整场雪崩。女性在寻找心灵倾吐器皿方面,是较为幸运的。她们从史前人类就被采集、种植等集体活动塑造出易于合群的本性,这本性在她们内心培养了一个沉睡的怨妇,一旦遇到不可承受之事,那怨妇就会苏醒,从而把身边的亲近者变成她们心灵呕吐的盛装器皿。家长里短的嚼舌,搬是弄非的恶习,在此时反而救了女性,被当做“器皿”者,此时若反馈几句偏心劝解,或者交换一两个同样糟心的秘密,那片造成雪崩的最后一片雪花,便飘往了别处。我在长篇小说《扶桑》中写道:“她跪着,却宽恕了所有站着的男人”。这是我受老子“弱之胜强,柔之胜刚”哲思启发所发的所谓女权宣言。男人的脆弱,在于他们的太要强,“兵强则灭,木强则折”,“强大处下,柔弱处上”。对于刚强者易折这一点,扶桑是看得很清的。有人说扶桑身具奴性,我只能诡秘一笑;她的强大,在于内心,是悟性的强大,是向死而生的强大。

我在上一篇文章中(《我们都是鱼》https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/guandian/pinglun/2024/12/25/ygl-yan-ge-ling-wo-men-dou-shi-yu/)谈到我们群体防护意识薄弱是因为群体健忘引起,现在,我认为那是偏颇之谈。防,是要从何处防起?要从每一个孩子,每一个家庭,每一个社区,每个朋友圈开始;护,便是对每一颗心灵增加关注和关怀。心灵是我们生命的“软件”,“软件中毒”,后果有时比“硬件病态”更加可怕。一个得癌症的人,可以说他硬件得了重病,但只要他的心灵健康,绝不会在刹那间以全人类的他者为敌,尽可能多地消灭那些他者。贾巴尔预谋的开始,是想弑杀他的家人,但他考量到对家人的杀戮不会引起巨大社会反响,所以他决定拿陌生人开刀。也就是说,这类走极端的人类成员是有共同点的,那就是他们都有表演欲,他们或多或少都是“行为艺术家“,在自己的终极的生命演出中,尽量多地为自己拉观众,因为他们的一生都缺乏旁人的关注和关怀,他们用毁灭自身和他人来博得关注。所以对此类恶性事件防范的开始,是对个体的关注,是对一个幼小孩童的关注,是对一个不愉快的朋友或熟人的关注。给于他人一点关注吧,这对我们自身是多么廉价的防护!

当今人们会花高价寻求心灵呕吐的盛装器皿,那一个个人形器皿,叫做心理咨询师。随着疫情对我们生活方式的永久改变,使我们更加离群索居,更加需要扩充心灵呕吐物的回收量,现在心理就诊可谓一诊难求,很多人在感到最后一片雪花正在飘来时求助心理诊所,而得到却是“本所不再接受新患者”的电子语音答复。就算你幸运,找到一个还有接纳量的诊所,你花几百块进行一次“呕吐”,也很难得到一个真正理解的回声。从弗洛伊德到荣格,再到当代心理医学界,在人类无限复杂的心理迷宫里,他们只能指出为数不多的几种出路,倒是还不如碎嘴女人几句家长里短的帮腔,拉偏架。想想这有多可怕,我们同路行走的人群里,就有那些等着最后一片雪花飘来以触发他整个心灵崩溃,从而毁灭他人或自身的人。他们如我们一样穿衣戴帽,心里却万念俱灰,满心阴暗,视身边一切他者为敌,不惜与其同归于尽。假如我知道他们是谁,我愿意让我的耳朵做一只无限大的“器皿”,盛装他们倾尽一生不如意的呕吐,我愿意稍微帮腔,小小地拉一点偏架,我愿意为他们挡住那最后一片雪花。

(本文仅代表作者个人观点立场)

© 路透社

笔者:在美国新奥尔良(图)以卡车袭击人群和在拉斯维加斯自爆的两件跨年事件,根据肇事人遗留的理念信息判断,是两起性质不同的恶性事故。

中国透视 | 开年黑天鹅 图穷匕首见 ——美中俄2025博弈

主持人:陈奎德

座谈人:张杰博士 ,独立学者 法学博士

一、“四大皆空”: 2025中国经济开年

2025年一开局,从中国传来坏消息。在经济上,影响中国人心理状态的四组数据:股市、汇率、楼市、就业,被很多经济学者和观察家认为是四大皆空。也就是说,飞来了四只经济的黑天鹅。

中国股市2025年出师不利,3大指数在开年三天后不仅已连3跌,创下近3个月来最大单周跌幅。1月8日,A股三大指数早盘开低走低,沪指盘中跌破3200点,截至午间收盘,上证指数跌1.46%、深证成指跌2.38%、创业板指跌2.77%。股市断崖式下滑的恐慌正在蔓延。

1月3日,在岸人民币汇率跌破了北京当局自去年年底以来一直捍卫的“红线”。

1月8日,最新报道称,人民币汇率已跌至16个月低点。尽管中国央行在特朗普本月就职前维持人民币中间价的稳定,但今天,在岸人民币兑美元汇率下跌0.1%,至1美元兑7.34元人民币为2023年9月以来的最低水平。

2025年中国经济深陷泥潭,股市、房市、汇市、债市将会是“四大皆空”。几只黑天鹅齐飞。

二、2025中国政局诡异

2025年,习近平的权力进一步出现衰退迹象。年底解放军报几篇论民主集中制文章后,每年一度均由军委主席开训声中却没有了习近平身影。各方面的势力正在恶斗。并未达到一个妥协点及平衡点。中国政局暗云压顶,极度动荡。其军中亲信苗华垮台等重大事件虽然使习渐失军队掌控权,但名义上仍保有最高位置。习近平已无其他灵丹妙药,只好再度祭起效用递减的“反腐”大刀,以图重掌全面大权。

目前局面,类似1976年毛死之前之后国内的诡异气氛,一场腥风血雨之斗,恐怕已难于避免。虽然如此,但在大多中国国民心中,恐怕是在默念王安石的《元日》诗呢:

爆竹声中一岁除,春风送暖入屠苏。

千门万户曈曈日,总把新桃换旧符。

不过,我们今天主要讨论的主要内容是,中共在年关之交的美中俄博弈。

三、三角棋盘:且看美俄中如何博弈?

先到为王

在5个月前,2024年8月8日我们曾在《中国透视》节目中指出:“(民主阵营与轴心阵营)两阵营的划分并非凝固不变天长地久,它时时处于重组与流变之中。因为各国大多数人仍能看出世界重心之所在,全球潮流之所趋。就连现在与美国为敌的中俄两国的政治菁英阶层,虽然目前背靠背相互取暖,扰乱世界,抗拒国际主流秩序。但在复杂的世局变化中,当历史的转折点隐隐浮现时,在生死攸关的利益盘算下,它们将会在地下暗中比赛,看谁能先与美帝握手。因为届时的游戏规则是:先到为王。”

当下的历史时刻,正是上述微妙的转折点将临之际。

在2024与2025之交,围绕着俄乌战争以及台海、南海乃至巴拿马运河等事件,美中俄之间是如何在交手、过招、博弈的?

美俄近期风向:特朗普以习逼普

还有十几天即将二次上任的美国待任总统特朗普,出于其对世界地缘政治的战略考量,明确希望尽早结束俄乌战争。他一面向莫斯科传递信号,一面又暗示北京可以帮忙。但这是一个极其艰难的政治手术。对于特朗普抛出的橄榄枝,北京和莫斯科各有算盘,习近平当局可能在盘算,如何以此做筹码缓和中美关系(虽然习近平本人还在夸张地作抗美状),而普京无疑也在琢磨如何把握难得的机会解套。

据中共官媒报道,一架由俄罗斯特种航空中队驾驶的伊尔-96飞机从莫斯科起飞,于2024年12月26日凌晨抵达纽约。几小时后,再飞抵华盛顿,并在那里停留到当天下午晚些时候返回俄罗斯。该型号的飞机被称为“普京专机”,主要是用来运送俄高层官员,包括普京。“总统专机”深夜抵美,飞机上的是什么人,到美国又是所为何事?美俄对此不约而同地保持沉默。这架神秘飞机上应该有俄方的高级官员前往美国,大概率是就乌克兰问题进行谈判。如果此次“俄方专机”上搭载的是普京或代表普京的重要官员,一定程度上可以说明,这是俄罗斯的让步,讨论推进俄乌和谈事宜,并为特朗普与普京的会晤做铺垫。

北京当局对此事的格外关注,显露了习近平最大的担心,他深恐特朗普和普京背着自己做交易,使习中共单独直接面对美国、欧洲、日本、韩国、印度以及澳大利亚的极大压力。不难看出,卖掉莫斯科,目前几乎是习近平少有的瞬间即逝的历史机会。如果不尽快使用,就可能很快永久失去;而且相反,还很有可能反过来被普京出卖。

之前,普京在特朗普大选获胜后之所以迟迟未接美方抛出的俄乌和谈的橄榄枝,是因为他不希望被视为在战场优势尚不明显的态势下有求于美国而急于结束战争,他还想获得更多砝码再上谈判桌。但是特朗普急躁中发出的信号未见普京配合,颇不耐烦,于是连连向习近平喊话,又是邀请来美参加他的就职典礼,又是“好朋友”之类谀词接连不断。如是者三,普京有些沉不住气了。若习近平先于普京与特朗普会面,事情就复杂了。他怎能让到手的鸭子飞了?

于是,在几天前的年度记者会上,普京口气转换,强调:“与特朗普的会面在任何时候都可以,相信我们会有许多事要谈。” 于是,那神秘的俄罗斯专机深夜抵美的事件应运而生。毕竟,普京最大的战略诉求还是战争停火,他已经很难支撑下去了。于是,近日特朗普表示,他希望在半年内解决乌克兰冲突。在海湖庄园的讲话中,他表示:“我希望,在6个月内能行。“

既然普京已经放出口风,特朗普的“好朋友”习近平就一边凉快销声匿迹了。特朗普1月7日在佛州海湖庄园举行的记者会上指出,把巴拿马运河交给巴拿马是前总统卡特任内的一大错误, “巴拿马需要维修费时就来跟美国要钱,我们什么也没得到,这种情况将成为过去”。“巴拿马运河对我们国家至关重要,它目前由中国运营,中国!我们把巴拿马运河给了巴拿马,并没有把它给中国。” 他还说了这样一句话:“不排除动用武力,夺取巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛的控制权”。

习近平已经感受到了在(操控)巴拿马运河问题上特朗普吹向北京的凛冽寒风。

毕竟,在美中俄三边关系中,虽然中俄目前联手抗美,但俄国只是因战争需求迫不得已而绑定北京。一旦俄乌战争结束,美俄关系恐立马回暖。对特朗普而言,中俄两国孰亲孰疏是清楚的:首先,中共是既有意愿又有实力且意识形态敌对的挑战现代既有国际秩序的唯一大国,其二,以老大美国为首的美中俄三国而言,固有规律就是亲老三,敌老二;其三,对特朗普而言,在感情上接近种族近似以及宗教同一渊源(广义基督教的东正教)的俄罗斯而疏远敌基督的共产中国,是顺理成章之事。因此,在长远的亲疏关系上,美俄接近而疏远北京的态势显而易见的。当前美国所以与中俄双方仍然若即若离,基本的因素当然是俄乌战争。一旦战事消停,基本的真实的三国关系必将显露无遗,而美国就有更多的空间在亚太地区发挥作用,关注台海、南海、巴拿马运河,制衡中共。

所以,对北京而言,最大利益就是继续俄乌战争,这是习中共一直要维持住的历史事态。只要俄乌战争继续,普京就无法不有求于中共,那么习近平就可以以此拿捏俄罗斯。

基本的问题,仍然在于如何结束俄乌战争。

和平协议的基本条款将在哪一个平衡点上签署?

显然,它取决于战局。

众所周知,前几个月国际舆论的主流认为乌东战场上俄军已占据主动地位,俄军正在缓慢但稳定地推进。而在乌军突进的俄土库尔斯克境内,双方战况僵持胶着。总之,尽管有美英及几个北约国家批准了乌军可以使用长程导弹打击俄国境内军事目标,但总的形势是俄军居于攻势,而乌军处于守势。

然而,最近情况似乎发生了一些逆转,有三个新出现的动向间接或直接反映战局的变化。

第一,2024年12月12日,英国、西班牙、意大利、德国、波兰、法国、乌克兰七国外交部长和欧盟高级代表,在柏林举行会议讨论加大对乌全方位支持,会后签署了《柏林宣言》,誓言支持乌克兰打赢俄乌战争,恢复乌克兰国家主权和领土完整。这一宣言虽然言及乌俄两国,但主要是说给美国当选总统特朗普听的。

第二,据英国《金融时报》2024年12月20日报道,美国当选总统特朗普的团队告诉欧洲官员,特朗普计划在上任后维持美国对基辅的军事支持,但他也要求北约成员国将其军费开支提高至本国国内生产总值(GDP)的5%。即是说,美国不再对乌克兰威胁说将不再给乌克兰军援。这是美方的一个重大战略转向。

第三,从1月5日开始,乌军在库尔斯克方向上向俄军发起大规模进攻。支持俄罗斯入侵乌克兰但是经常对俄军遭遇挫败持批评态度的俄罗斯军事博主们也证实,乌军此次反攻让俄军遭遇巨大压力。乌克兰军队突然在俄罗斯库尔斯克地区多个方向发起大规模反攻,投入了至少6个旅约2万人的兵力,数百辆坦克和装甲车,在远程炮火和无人机掩护下,进展迅猛,截止本文发稿时,已经突破俄军纵深5至8公里。

这是谈判前的典型动作,夺取更多谈判筹码。

结束俄乌战争的四种可能方案:

1、俄乌拒绝任何调解,增强战争烈度 (北京激赏)

2、俄乌美签署停战协议 (土地换土地,恢复到2022年2月24日之前状态,乌克兰意愿)

3、联合国维和部队进入乌东四州和俄国库尔斯克地区强制停战。

4、以乌克兰的核能力制衡俄国的核恐吓

…………….

北京随时可能把莫斯科当作筹码,与美国及其盟友做交易。与其被北京卖掉,莫斯科当然也是希望有机会能先卖掉北京。特朗普也许正在带来这样的机会。如果特朗普能开出可接受的条件,普京显然不会放过和谈机会。

从前面的分析看,通过一个多月的话语博弈,莫斯科已经比北京占了上风。而且,前一段有消息称特朗普以及团队点名要与蔡奇直接沟通。看来美方正在试探和评估中国内部的高层权力状况。从习近平的反应来看,他比普京已经慢了一拍。

四、图穷匕首见?

2025一开年,习近平就面临内外交困,受到巨大压力。在美中俄三边关系上,倘若俄乌和平谈判取得某种进展,习近平被逼到墙角,在无路可走的情势下,不能排除他铤而走险的可能性,特别是在台海问题上。中国有老话:图穷而匕首见。所以,台湾当局及国际国内的各种力量,当未雨绸缪,谨防其狗急跳墙。

© 路透社

北京随时可能把莫斯科当作筹码,与美国及其盟友做交易。

💾

France Indicts Founder of Notorious Website Used in Pelicot Rape Case

The site, coco.fr, was shut down in June after being linked to more than 23,000 sexual abuse and other cases in France alone, including the rape trial that shocked the country last year.

© Christophe Simon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Gisèle Pelicot leaving the courthouse in Avignon, France, after a hearing in November.

Fire evacuation order lifted for LA's Hollywood Hills West

10 January 2025 at 00:29
Reuters A firefighter tackling a fire in the Palisades area of Los Angeles. They sit in the foreground with their back to the camera holding a hose. A stream of water is going from the hose towards a tire in the roof of a building in the background. Reuters

A mandatory evacuation order has been issued in the Hollywood Hills following the spread of the wildfires raging across Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) said there was an "immediate threat to life" in the area and that it was being legally closed to the public.

At least five fires are currently active across Los Angeles, with five people confirmed to have been killed.

More than 130,000 people have already had to evacuate, and the homes of a number of celebrities - including Paris Hilton and Billy Crystal - have been destroyed.

The first fire began on Tuesday in the Pacific Palisades neighbourhood, near Malibu, with others subsequently breaking out across the north of the city.

As of 20:15 local time (04:00 GMT), four fires in the areas of the Palisades, Pasadena, Sylmar, and the Hollywood Hills covered more than 27,000 acres (42 sq miles; 109 sq km) and were 0% contained, according to the LAFD.

One fire in the Acton area had been partially contained, while two others had been completely contained.

The fire in the Hollywood Hills - a residential neighbourhood overlooking the historic Hollywood area of the city - began at around 18:00 local time on Wednesday.

Less than two hours later, much of the heart of Hollywood was blanketed with thick smoke, and the tops of the palm trees that line its streets were barely visible.

People used sweatshirts to cover their faces to help them breathe, while others - clearly surprised by the fire - wore only pyjamas. Many carried bags and suitcases, talking on their phones as they made plans for where to go.

Many of the roads near the fire - including Hollywood Boulevard, home to the Hollywood Walk of Fame - were gridlocked with traffic. Some people even drove on the wrong side of the road as they tried to get out of the area.

Resident Anna Waldman told the BBC she had set out to walk her dog but smelled smoke almost instantly when she went outside.

She went back inside and, looking out her back windows, saw fire, and watched as it moved quickly thought the Hollywood Hills, coming to within a block of her home.

She packed what she could: food, clothes, blankets, food for her three small dogs.

"I can't believe this," she said in exhaustion, pulling down her face mask.

Makayla Jackson, 26, and her two-year-old son, Ramari, had been evacuated from a homeless shelter that was in danger of burning, and now stood on the street waiting for a ride to a high school where help was being offered to people.

"They just told us to get out and go," she said.

Hollywood resident Anna Waldman stands in a car park after wildfires forced her to leave her home. She has a trolley of belongings and a buggy in which is sat her three small white dogs. She is wearing glasses and a face mask and is doing a peace sign at the camera.
Anna Waldman told the BBC she had had to flee her home with her three dogs

Firefighters tackling the blazes have experienced water shortages and have had to resort to taking water from swimming pools and ponds.

Officials said three separate one-million-gallon tanks were full before the fires began, but that the elevation of the fires meant water couldn't move quickly enough to hydrants in the affeted areas.

The city also doesn't typically see fires of this magnitude - the Palisades blaze is already the most destructive in its history - and its systems are designed for urban use, not fighting wildfires.

【404文库】基本常识|深圳火灾豪宅过渡安置方案:财政补贴每月每户5万元租房

10 January 2025 at 00:26

file

深圳火灾豪宅过渡安置方案:财政补贴每户每月5万元租房,

深圳财政对富人真的是相当慷慨,慷慨到我揉眼睛看好几遍都不敢相信的程度。

前阵子,深圳湾悦府的超级豪宅发生火灾事故的新闻想必大家都还记得,一名女住户不幸遇难, 很多人通过视频目睹了事故现场,留下深深的心理阴影。

受影响更大的是同一栋楼的其他住户,发生爆炸以及被火灾波及的27楼和28楼几乎烧成废墟, 整栋楼的幕墙、电梯等都需要重新修复,甚至主体结构也需要评估损害之后才能确定能否继续住人。

花大价钱买的房子不能住了,那怎么办呢?去投靠亲友吗?去租房住吗?去住酒店吗?难不成要

露宿街头?……

顺着我们“普通人”的思路想问题,写着写着我自己都觉得可笑:人家买得起超过20多万一平, 总价超5000万的顶级豪宅,你觉得人家会只有这一套房子?是这套房不能住就无家可归了,还是租不起房了,还是住不起酒店了?

我想,稍有基本常识的人都不会担心深圳湾悦府的业主没地方住对不对?

但是!深圳市南山区政府真的在担心,看起来他们真的在为这些有家不能回的豪宅业主着急,怕他们租不起房住不起酒店。

根据方案,这栋楼的业主可以选择两种过渡安置方式:第一种是住每晚约800元的五星酒店(后海木棉花酒店),每家给安排2到3个房间,一直住到能搬回去为止。

第二种是接受现金安置,按照房屋建筑面积(包括公摊部分)每平米每月补贴225元,折合大户型每月补贴50400元。

一言以蔽之,大佬们生活品质不能有一丁点的下滑。

咱们公允地说,这些业主遭受了无妄之灾,拿到补偿接受补贴是合情合理的事,不能因为他们有钱就忽视他们的合法权益。仇富是不对的。

关键在于,这赔偿和补贴的钱由谁来出呢?

CDT 档案卡
标题:深圳火灾豪宅过渡安置方案:财政补贴每月每户5万元租房
作者:项栋梁
发表日期:2025.1.10
来源:微信公众号“基本常识”
主题归类:深圳豪宅燃气爆炸
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

我看到有文章分析说,因为发生燃气爆炸的房屋是法拍房,所以责任归属出现了真空地带,原业主失联很久了,物业没责任,天然气公司没责任,抵押的银行也没责任,所以不知道向谁索

赔……

这些法律责任方面的事情我们非专业人士可能搞不明白,但有一点是非常清楚而且绝对不会错的:

这栋楼发生火灾,我没有一丁点责任吧?不该我出钱赔偿和安置业主吧?既然我没有一丁点的责任,为什么深圳南山区要拿着财政的钱去补贴这些业主每月5万元呢?

作为深圳纳税人,这些补贴给亿万富豪的钱里面,大概率也包含了我的一两元吧?我一个普普通通的城市白领何德何能可以出钱补贴这些住在千万豪宅里的亿万富豪呢?我自己租着每月不到 5000元的房子,你再拿我交的税去补贴人家每月5万元的租金,不觉得有点过分吗?

可能有人要说了,财政资金说是先行垫付,后面业主们通过法律途径维权拿到赔偿之后会还回去的。

那么问题来了,业主们找谁索赔去呢?如果知道索赔的对象,为什么不让责任方来垫付呢?如果不知道索赔对象,那这垫付还能有收回来的一天吗?

作为政府,出于人道主义安置受灾群众是非常合理的,如果真是受灾群众有困难,拿财政资金去垫付也好,赈灾也好,谁都没有二话。

深圳湾悦府二期A栋的业主们的确是受灾了,可他们是困难群众吗?你在整个太阳系打听打听, 有见过非要住五星酒店或者花5万元租房的困难群众吗?

请制定补贴方案的领导们搞搞清楚,我们这些勤勤恳恳打工纳税的人才是困难群众啊。

分享一点基本常识:天之道,损有余而补不足。

房市持续低迷 碧桂园提出离岸债务重组方案

据路透社9日报道,中国房地产开发商碧桂园于当日提出了一项离岸债务重组方案。根据提案,债权人可以从多种选项中选择,包括将债务拍卖以换取现金、接受2028年底到期的强制性可转换债券、将债务期限延长至最多11年半,或选择新的债务工具等。

碧桂园曾是中国最大的房地产开发商,但由于未能偿还2023年底到期的110亿美元离岸债券,进一步加剧了中国房地产行业的债务危机。报道指出,房地产市场持续低迷,令开发商偿债压力倍增,被迫提出债务重组方案,就碧桂园而言,其2024年12月的销售额为69.1亿元人民币,比前一年同期下降了50%,凸显了中国房地产的景气依旧面临严峻挑战。

责编:安克 网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

中国房地产开发商碧桂园于提出了一项离岸债务重组方案。

免签政策难奏效?中国入境游客未达复苏目标

过去一年,中国积极开放多国免签政策,希望吸引更多外国游客来华观光,以刺激经济并促进投资。然而,据彭博社报道,入境游客数量未达预期,仍无法恢复至疫情前的水平。今年前三季度,前往中国的游客总数不到2300万人次,虽然是2023年的两倍,但仅为2019年同期的63%,与北京通过简化签证程序实现全面复苏的目标相距甚远。

彭博社分析指出,这一现象的主要原因包括国际航班数量大幅减少、经济和政治环境变化,以及西方对中国观感的恶化。来自美国和西欧国家的游客因政治和贸易摩擦减少赴华意愿,实际入境游客主要来自邻近亚洲国家和较不发达地区。

目前,中国已单方面向38个国家提供免签入境服务,而在疫情前,仅有新加坡、日本和文莱享有此待遇。此外,北京扩大了针对过境旅客的免签政策,允许计划停留10天以内的游客免签入境,目前覆盖54个国家。彭博社分析指出,过去中国在免签政策上倾向于要求互惠,如今主动提供单方面免签,反映出在严重通货紧缩的背景下,北京迫切希望吸引外国消费者以提振经济。

但是,由于免签政策未能有效吸引更多来自富裕国家的游客,这为北京通过旅游振兴经济的愿景增添了更多挑战。报道指出,据统计,2024年国际游客在中国的消费额预计为980亿美元,比2019年1320亿美元的峰值下降了26%。

报道还提到,除了航空和地缘政治等因素外,中国对国际游客而言仍是一个具有挑战性的目的地。英语使用不广泛、存在独特的支付系统不鼓励现金交易,以及严格的互联网审查,使得外国游客难以使用谷歌和Instagram等常用平台,这些都为中国吸引国际游客增加了障碍。

责编:安克 网编:瑞哲

© 美联社

2024年10月8日,中国游客游览北京慕田峪长城

U.S. Steel Faces Stark Choices as Nippon Steel Merger Founders

10 January 2025 at 01:39
The onetime dynamo is fighting to revive a takeover by Nippon Steel. Other tie-ups could also face obstacles, and going it alone could force cutbacks.

© Justin Merriman for The New York Times

A U.S. Steel plant in Braddock, Pa. Without a merger partner, the company may sell off parts of its business.

What rising borrowing costs could mean for Labour's economic plan

9 January 2025 at 22:48
Reuters Rachel Reeves, a woman with a dark bob hair style, and a blue suit, stands in front of two microphonesReuters
Rachel Reeves may soon have a big decision to make

Nothing has been more important to the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer than economic credibility.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out clear fiscal rules, such as getting debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament, and she has made sticking to these rules a crucial test of the government's credibility.

That's what makes the recent rise in government borrowing costs potentially so dangerous for Reeves, the Treasury and - arguably - Sir Keir Starmer's entire political project.

If the government has to spend a lot more money paying interest on debt, then it is less likely to meet its rules.

On current trends, 26 March is set to become a critical date.

That is when the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will deliver its latest forecasts, including an assessment of whether the government is on course to meet its fiscal rules or not.

Suppose the OBR says the government is not on course. It's important to stress this may not happen - but it is something that senior government figures are growing more jittery about by the minute.

Reeves would have a decision to make.

She has previously committed only to make significant tax and spend announcements once a year at the autumn Budget.

A Treasury spokesperson said last night that "meeting the fiscal rules is non-negotiable".

That would suggest she would have to break her commitment and announce, or at least pave the way for, measures to bring the government in line with its rules.

What could that mean?

In principle, it could mean either tax rises or spending restraint.

In practice, given the significant increase in employers' National Insurance rates in October, it would mean spending restraint - Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, practically said as much in the Commons today.

To be clear, spending restraint would not necessarily mean spending cuts, just much lower spending increases than would otherwise happen.

This is where economics could collide with politics fast.

It's all very well for the Treasury to take measures to soothe the bond markets, where government debt is traded.

But just because a strategy is the most economically viable available, that doesn't mean it is politically viable in a Labour Party made up of MPs who have spent the past 14 years decrying Conservative austerity.

Many Labour MPs, among them cabinet ministers, believe there is little fat left to trim from the state.

They were already anxious about a tough multi-year spending review, expected to conclude around June, before borrowing costs rose.

There is almost a risk of a paradox: that any acts of spending restraint visible and significant enough to calm the markets might, by definition, be too visible and too significant to fly politically among Labour MPs - especially after the controversy of the cut to the winter fuel payment for pensioners.

Labour figures argue that successive Conservative governments dealt with similar problems by piling the most painful spending measures towards the end of five-year forecast periods - hoping that by the year at which those "pencilled-in" measures were reached, circumstances would have changed.

But some also voice a fear that - precisely because of the Conservatives having done this - repeating the trick would be given short shrift by the markets: the fiscal sins of previous governments being visited on this new one.

Unlike recent Conservative debates on economic policy, the Labour Party has one big asset.

In 2022, when Liz Truss decided to go big, with a radical tax-cutting agenda, the Conservative Party had no consensus on how to approach the economy.

The 2022 leadership election in which Truss defeated Rishi Sunak was essentially a clash of economic ideas.

She won that argument with Tory members, having lost it among the party's MPs - and then lost it unambiguously with the public and the markets within 49 days.

The Labour Party, give or take some sotto voce debates about tax for the wealthiest and welfare for the poorest, does broadly have an economic consensus, especially when it comes to what the Conservatives did wrong.

But what if these shared beliefs in how best to run the economy turn out to be products of the low interest rate era?

And how do you maintain that consensus if the markets disagree?

This is a political worst case scenario for Reeves.

Asking influential Labour figures about the markets this morning was to be told that lines go down as well as up, that the markets can move the other way in rapid time.

But all acknowledge that it is a bad sign when the value of the currency goes down at the same time as the cost of borrowing goes up.

And all are watching anxiously to see how things develop.

As one government source said to me: "It's definitely not tin hat time yet."

Lily Allen to take podcast break over mental health

9 January 2025 at 22:35
PA Close up of Lily Allen with dangly earringsPA

Lily Allen has said she is taking a break from her podcast for "a few weeks" because her mental health is "spiralling" and she is not "in a good place".

Speaking on the latest episode of Miss Me?, the pop star-turned-actor said she had been going through a "tough period".

It comes amid reports of a split from her husband, Stranger Things star David Harbour.

Allen, who co-hosts the show with her friend, presenter Miquita Oliver, said she was currently "unable to concentrate on anything except the pain I'm going through".

Reuters Lily Allen and David Harbour pictured smiling together at a public eventReuters
Lily Allen and David Harbour got married in 2020

"I'm finding it hard to be interested in anything. I'm really not in a good place," she said on Thursday's episode.

"I know I've been talking about it for months, but I've been spiralling and spiralling and spiralling, and it's got out of control. I've tried.

"I came to the Miss Me? Christmas lunch and had a panic attack and had to go home," the 39-year-old added. "And I went to see something at the theatre the other night with my friends... and I had to leave at half-time.

"I just can't concentrate on anything except the pain that I'm going through. And It's really hard."

The singer, who now lives in the US, went on to say she was "going away next week", adding: "You're not going to hear me for a few weeks, listeners."

But despite "rumours" that she was going into drug rehab, she said that was not the case and she had not relapsed.

She didn't say where she's going, but said she is "not allowed my phone".

'Source of joy'

Allen also said her two daughters - whom she shares with her ex-husband Sam Cooper and recently went on safari with - had been a great help of late.

"It's really tough - they are always there and you have to be present and there for them," she said.

"And that's OK. When things in life are going well and swimmingly and you're coping, it's really nice to have the kids around - they're a joy to be around, in fact one of the main sources of joy in one's life.

"But when things are not going so well and life is tough - as it is for many people for all manner of reasons - having to hold things together is really hard."

Co-host Oliver told listeners she would "drive this ship" in Allen's absence and "wait for the captain to return".

The BBC Sounds podcast, which launched last year, sees childhood friends Allen former Popworld host Oliver indulge in twice weekly "transatlantic catch-ups, discussing the highs and lows of their lives and the biggest cultural moments of the week".

Allen made her West End theatre debut in 2:22 - A Ghost Story in 2021, and is due to return to the stage in Hedda, a new version of Henrik Ibsen's Hedda Gabler, at Bath Theatre Royal's Ustinov Studio in July.

She is also reportedly filming a screen adaptation of Virginia Woolf's comic novel Night and Day.

The Brit Award winner mentioned in a previous episode that she was hoping to go back into the studio to record more music later this year.

How Elon Musk seized on baseless memo claim to fuel wave of misinformation

9 January 2025 at 21:10
Reuters Elon Musk stares ahead. He is wearing a white open-necked shirt and a suit. Reuters

Elon Musk's online attacks on former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown over grooming gangs draw on a baseless claim about a Home Office memo supposedly issued 17 years ago, research by BBC Verify has established.

A wave of social media posts - including some amplified by Mr Musk - allege that a 2008 Home Office document advised police not to intervene in child grooming cases because victims had "made an informed choice about their sexual behaviour".

But BBC Verify has carried out extensive searches of Home Office circulars issued across that period and found no evidence that any document containing this advice exists.

Brown - who was prime minister in 2008 - has called the allegations "a complete fabrication" and the Home Office says there "has never been any truth" to them.

'Informed choice'

Social media posts referencing a memo and using either the phrase "informed choice" or a variation like "lifestyle choice" have circulated for several years with some gaining traction.

But that intensified dramatically since the start of the year, with posts repeating the claim generating tens of millions of views in the past week after Mr Musk amplified several of them on his social media platform, X.

In one post, which has received over 25 million views, Mr Musk alleged that "Gordon Brown sold those little girls for votes" while reposting another user, June Slater, using words that were apparently a variation of the memo claim.

X A screenshot showing one of the posts shared by Elon Musk.X
This was one of the posts shared by Elon Musk on X

The original unfounded claim about a Home Office circular to police seems to stem from an interview Nazir Afzal - the former Crown Prosecution Service chief prosecutor for north-west England - gave to the BBC on 19 October 2018. He now admits that he had not seen any such circular himself, despite apparently stating its existence as fact.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's PM programme, he told presenter Carolyn Quinn at the time:

"You may not know this, but back in 2008 the Home Office sent a circular to all police forces in the country saying 'as far as these young girls who are being exploited in their towns and cities we believe they have made an informed choice about their sexual behaviour and therefore it's not for you police officers to get involved in".

Although the programme is no longer available to listen to on the BBC's website, a version has been uploaded to YouTube. BBC Verify has also accessed the programme through the BBC's in-house archives to confirm the audio is genuine.

The first post referencing Mr Afzal's claim appears to have been made one month after his interview, BBC Verify has found. But the first post to gain considerable traction was in July 2019.

Since then posts with versions of the claim have circulated occasionally on X and other platforms, with some posts from larger accounts in 2024 getting more attention, before intensifying massively in recent days.

Misinterpreted instructions

Speaking to BBC Verify, Mr Afzal clarified his position admitting that he has never seen any circular with the form of words that he used in his 2018 interview.

Instead he now says he was referring to police officers who had told him some officers had misinterpreted instructions in a circular sent by the Home Office.

Mr Afzal pointed us to Home Office circular 017/2008 which is about the police's powers under the 1989 Children's Act.

However, the words "informed choice" do not appear anywhere in the text, nor is the circular about child grooming gangs.

It does contain, however, a section on how to judge significant harm to a child. "It is important always to take account of the child's reactions, and his or her perceptions, according to the child's age and understanding," it reads.

It seems difficult to understand how any police officer could misconstrue this section in the way Mr Afzal described in his 2018 interview

He told BBC Verify he was "paraphrasing what I thought that meant to them", when he gave his Radio 4 interview.

Asked how officers could have interpreted circular 17/2008 in this way, Mr Afzal said:

"You're right, it doesn't stack up. It doesn't give an excuse or explanation, but I can't give you any other circular."

Nazir Afzal being interviewed by the BBC. He is wearing an open-necked shirt and jacket.
The claims spread on X appeared to have first been made by former chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal in a 2018 BBC interview

BBC Verify also asked Mr Afzal if he could put us in touch with any of the officers that may have misinterpreted the circular in way he described, but he was unable to do this.

Mr Afzal's claim was not a one off. One year before his 2018 interview, Mr Afzal wrote an article for the International Business Times where he also stated the claim as fact:

"The term "child prostitute" was used extensively to describe them and it should be noted both that the Home Office in a circular to police in 2008 used that term and spoke of girls making an "informed choice" to engage in this behaviour. Parliament only finally removed the term from all laws a couple of years ago."

Despite interest in the claim going back several years we have been unable to identify any individual who is able to provide evidence of any circular to this effect.

Home Office memos contain no reference to term

The purpose of the circulars - or memos - is to provide police forces with guidance, policy updates and administrative instructions.

The Home Office says all memos and circulars to police forces are published online in the National Archives. They are also kept in the library of the College of Policing website.

BBC Verify searched all the circulars for 2008 and could find no reference to "informed choice" or "child prostitute" or any phrase similar to the one cited in the social media posts.

Of the 32 circulars listed on the National Archives website for 2008, only one - 017/2008 - falls under the category "child abuse". We have also searched circulars for 2007, 2009 and 2010 and found no references to "informed choice". We also searched for other phrases in Mr Afzal's original statements and variations from later social media posts - for example "get involved", "sexual behaviour" and "lifestyle choice" - and found no occurrences.

There have been several Freedom of Information requests regarding a supposed memo or circular with the "informed choice" phrase, but no police force has found any trace of such a communication.

We were able to find a circular from 2009 that links to a webpage that further links to a document on child sexual exploitation released by the Department for Children, Schools and Families that mentions the phrase "informed choice". It is not an instruction to police and the context it appears in is emphasising situations where local agencies might need to report sexual activity in order to protect children "unable to make an informed choice".

There were circulars in 2007 and 2010 that contained the phrase "child prostitute". The first was in connection with some technical changes to offences like "controlling a child prostitute". The second again dealt with technical changes but this circular on prostitution also said: "In short, any steps taken, whether relating to criminal proceedings or not, should be designed to protect the child from continuing sexual exploitation and abuse."

The term "child prostitute" was taken out of the law in 2015 as it could imply that children could consent to abuse.

Circulars and memos are received by senior individuals in each police force, former Chief Constable of Norfolk Constabulary Simon Bailey told BBC Verify.

"They would've gone to crime registrars and the head of the crime and they would've cascaded the guidance," he said.

If there was any doubt about how to interpret the guidance a force would have gone back to the Home Office to seek clarity, Mr Bailey added.

"And even going back 17 years, I cannot believe the Home Office would've sent out a circular of that nature."

'Never been any truth'

In a statement to BBC Verify, the Home Office said it had never instructed police not to go after grooming gangs:

"There has never been any truth in the existence of a Home Office circular telling police forces that grooming gangs should not be prosecuted, or that their victims were making a choice, and it is now clear that the specific circular which was being referred to does absolutely no such thing."

Jacqui Smith - now Baroness Smith - was the Labour Home Secretary in 2008. She told BBC Verify: "It is categorically wrong that the Home Office or I instructed police forces not to prosecute grooming gangs or not to protect young girls."

A spokesperson for Gordon Brown said: "There is no basis for such allegations at all. They are a complete fabrication. There is no foundation whatsoever for alleging that Mr Brown sent, approved or was in anyway involved with issuing a circular or statement to the police because it did not happen."

PA Media Gordon Brown speaking at a conference. He is wearing a suit and a red tie. An advertising board is visible behind him with the logos of several sponsors. PA Media
A spokesperson for former Prime Minister Gordon Brown condemned the online attacks on him

'Got lost in translation'

BBC Verify has attempted to speak to those who repeated the claim on X and had their posts amplified by Mr Musk.

In one post, Mr Musk alleged that "Gordon Brown committed an unforgivable crime against the British people" and shared a video clip from campaigner Maggie Oliver appearing on GB News.

In the clip, Ms Oliver alleged: "Gordon Brown sent out a circular to all the police forces in the UK saying 'do not prosecute these rape gangs, these children are making a lifestyle choice'."

Ms Oliver said that she based her claim on what Mr Afzal said:

"My knowledge of this comes from what Nazir Afzal said publicly in 2018 in his BBC interview."

BBC Verify also reached out to June Slater, whose post was also amplified by Mr Musk. She told us she had not seen the memo, but her claim was also based on what Mr Afzal and Ms Oliver had previously said:

"I thought he was a reliable source as is Maggie Oliver."

Asked if he regretted the misinformation that had stemmed from his statements, Mr Afzal told BBC Verify:

"I regret that people have interpreted what I interpreted and that it's sort of got lost in translation."

BBC Verify also contacted the Police Federation, the National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing about the alleged circular.

The NPCC referred us to the Home Office's statement while the College of Policing said it was not aware of any circular.

'Allegations ignored'

While there is no evidence for the existence of the circular, the performance of the police and other institutions in protecting victims and investigating abuse has been heavily criticised during this period.

Prof Alexis Jay - who carried out the independent inquiry into child abuse - said some victims would never recover from their experiences.

"We heard time and time again how allegations of abuse were ignored, victims were blamed and institutions prioritised their reputations over the protection of children."

Additional reporting by Ned Davies and Lucy Gilder.

BBC Verify logo

Politics content to be pushed to Instagram and Threads users

9 January 2025 at 23:12
Getty Images Instagram and Threads logos lit up against a dark background, side by side.Getty Images

Threads and Instagram users will no longer be able to opt out of being shown political content from people they do not follow, parent company Meta has announced.

The head of the platforms Adam Mosseri said it followed Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg's reorienting the company towards "free expression" - a move that saw it ditch fact checkers on Tuesday.

Mr Mosseri said Meta would begin recommending political content in a "responsible and personalised way" from this week in the US, and globally from next week.

It represents a U-turn on his previous stance on news and political content on Threads, which he said in 2023 the platform would not "do anything to encourage".

"Any incremental engagement or revenue they might drive is not at all worth the scrutiny, negativity (let's be honest), or integrity risks that come along with them," he wrote in a Threads post at the time.

But on Wednesday, he said it had "proven impractical to draw a red line around what is and is not political content" - and users have asked to be shown more, not less, of this content than in years prior.

A setting that currently allows Threads and Instagram users to toggle political content recommendations on or off will be changed to provide three options for how much they are shown - less, standard and more.

This will opt users in to seeing a "standard" amount by default.

Mixed response

Mr Mosseri said Instagram - which Meta acquired for $1bn in 2012 - was founded upon the values of creativity and "giving anybody a voice".

"My hope is that this focus on free speech is going to help us do even a bit better along that path," he said in an Instagram video.

There has been considerable criticism of the changes Meta has already announced, with concerns expressed about the impact on minority groups.

The company has also been accused of pandering to the incoming Trump administration, which has previously been very critical of Meta and Mr Zuckerberg.

Some users have also reacted to these latest changes on Threads and Instagram with dismay.

"Well, time to delete the Threads app. It was nice while it lasted," said one Threads user responding to Mr Mosseri's posts.

On Instagram - where Mr Mosseri said accounts focused on politics now "don't have to worry about becoming non-recommendable" to other users - some users praised the move as "a good step towards the freedom on the platform".

Many have also, however, expressed concern about the effect that increasing content recommendations about social issues and politics could have on amplifying misinformation and hate speech.

Mick Lynch announces retirement as head of RMT union

9 January 2025 at 23:26
PA Media Mick Lynch stands waiting for an interview on the picket line outside London Euston train station. There is train station sign behind him and he is wearing a suit and has a visible earpiecePA Media

Mick Lynch, head of the country's largest railway union, has announced his retirement.

He became general secretary of the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers in 2021, and under his leadership the union staged a series of strikes over pay in 2022 and 2023, culminating in a deal with the new Labour government this summer.

Feted by supporters for his straight-talking style, he was attacked by critics for his £84,000 salary and for the disruption caused by the union's industrial action.

In a statement, Mr Lynch did not give a reason for standing down but said it had "been a privilege to serve this union for over 30 years in all capacities", adding it was now "time for change".

Mr Lynch will stay in his role until May, when RMT members elect a new general secretary.

He said there was a need for a strong union for rail workers, but that a strong organisation needed "renewal and change".

He said he was proud of serving the union, adding: "This union has been through a lot of struggles in recent years, and I believe that it has only made it stronger despite all the odds."

At 16, he left school and trained to be an electrician, before finding work in construction.

As industrial action ebbed and flowed in the 1980s, Mr Lynch became involved in a breakaway union and was secretly blacklisted by constructions companies, leaving him struggling to find work for years.

When the blacklist was exposed decades later, Mr Lynch was compensated with a cheque for £35,000, a copy of which hangs framed on his office wall.

He went on to found the Electrical and Plumbing Industries Union (EPIU) in 1988, before joining the RMT.

He took charge of the RMT at a time of deep internal divisions.

Mr Lynch's predecessor as general secretary, Mick Cash, retired in 2020 after six years in the job, blaming a "campaign of harassment" by elements of the membership.

Mr Lynch was appointed acting general secretary, but soon stood down himself, accusing senior union members of "bullying" and creating "an intolerable, toxic atmosphere".

He then returned and won election to the role permanently in May 2021.

Maps and pictures chart how fires have spread

9 January 2025 at 17:22
BBC Firefighter tackling blazeBBC

Firefighters in Los Angeles are battling a number of blazes in city suburbs, as tens of thousands of residents are forced to flee.

The rapidly changing situation is compounded by Santa Ana winds and extremely dry conditions. Currently authorities say there is no possibility of bringing the fires under control.

The Palisades fire, which is closest to the coast and also the largest, has ripped through picturesque suburbs which are home to many Hollywood stars. More than 1,000 buildings have already been destroyed.

Here's how the fires have spread and are affecting the Los Angeles area.

An overview of the current fires

Map of the current four major fires

Four major fires are currently being tackled.

The Palisades fire was first reported at 10:30 (18:30 GMT) on Tuesday, and grew in just 20 minutes from a blaze of 20 acres to more than 200 acres, then more than tenfold in a matter of a few more hours. At least 30,000 people have so far been ordered to leave their homes.

The Eaton fire grew to cover 1,000 acres within the first six hours of breaking out. It started in Altadena in the hills above Pasadena at around 18:30 local time on Tuesday.

The Hurst fire is located just north of San Fernando. It began burning on Tuesday at around 22:10 local time, growing to 500 acres, according to local officials. It has triggered evacuation orders in neighbouring Santa Clarita.

The latest of the four fires is the Woodley fire, currently 75 acres in size. It broke out at approximately 06:15 local time on Wednesday.

How did the Palisades fire spread?

Map showing three stages of the development of the Palisades fire

The Palisades fire has so far burnt through more than 2,900 acres. The map above shows how rapidly the blaze spread, intensifying in a matter of hours. At just after 14:00 on Tuesday it covered 772 acres and within four hours it had expanded approximately to its current size.

Thousands of people have been forced to evacuate, as more than 1,400 firefighters try to tackle the blaze.

How does the Palisade fire compare in size with New York and London?

Maps showing the size of the Palisade fire when superimposed on to maps of New York (L) and London (R)

To give an idea of the size of the Palisades fire, we have superimposed it on to maps of New York and London.

As you can see, it is comparable in size with the central area of UK's capital, or with large areas of lower Manhattan and Brooklyn.

How the fires look from space

NASA Smoke from the Palisades fire seen drifting out to sea off the California coastNASA

Another indication of the scale of the Palisades fire comes from Nasa's Earth Observatory.

The images captured on Tuesday show a huge plume of smoke emanating from California and drifting out to sea.

Effects of the Eaton fire

Google Earth/Getty Images/BBC Before and after images of the Jewish Temple in PasadenaGoogle Earth/Getty Images/BBC

The Palisade fire is not the only one to have a devastating effect on neighbourhoods of Los Angeles.

The above images show the Jewish Temple in Pasadena before and during the Eaton fire.

The Jewish Temple and Centre's website says it has been in use since 1941 and has a congregation of more than 400 familes.

In pictures: Powerful images capture devastation and panic

9 January 2025 at 20:25
Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images Silhouetted firefighters gather in front of a fire engine next to a burning house in the Pacific Palisades areaKyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The blaze started in the wealthy Pacific Palisades neighbourhood, and quickly spread with strong winds and dry conditions

A wildfire that started in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles on Tuesday morning has spread across the west of the city at an alarming rate throughout Tuesday and overnight.

High winds and very dry conditions further fuelled the flames, causing the blaze to rip through neighbourhoods at alarming speeds. The fires reportedly spread from a size of 10 acres to nearly 3,000 in a matter of hours.

Firefighters have been battling the flames throughout the night, as residents were forced to flee amid evacuation orders affecting tens of thousands of people.

Photographers have captured dramatic scenes across the west of the city as firefighters work to control the fires.

David Swanson/AFP A helicopter drops water over burning hills, with a huge plume of smoke rising above them, in Pacific Palisades.David Swanson/AFP
Thick smoke has engulfed huge areas of the city as wind gusts of more than 80mph (126km/h) fanned the flames

The BBC's Regan Morris reported on fires raging out of control, leaving those without power and phone signal unable to receive updates on the latest evacuation alerts.

Meanwhile, CBS reporter Jonathan Vigliotti said firefighters were no longer "trying to save" houses in the Palisades, "they're trying to prevent these flames from jumping to other neighbourhoods".

Ringo Chiu/Reuters Sparks and debris fly through the air with a firefighter holding a water cannon in the foreground and a fence and trees in the background, on the west side of LA.Ringo Chiu/Reuters
Firefighters battled windy conditions as debris blew through residential areas
Caroline Brehman/EPA A group of firefighters walk through a clearing in woods with a burning hill in the background, in the Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
California Governor Gavin Newsom said that more than 1400 firefighters have been deployed to tackle the "unprecedented" fires
Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images A police officer escorts a homeless woman pushing her belongings on a trolley, on a street with a police car and burning mountain in the background, in Topanga Canyon Blvd.Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Police officers have been out on the streets, escorting people to safety and aiding evacuation efforts
Caroline Brehman/EPA A close up view of a group of firefighters as they climb a smoky burnt hill with trees on it, in the Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
Los Angeles County firefighters took up positions to tackle the blaze
Caroline Brehman/EPA A woman holds her dog and belongings while evacuating, as she walks down a street with fire in the background, in the Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
More than 30,000 people have been ordered to evacuate the area
David Crane/Los Angeles Daily News Firefighters are silhouetted against a yellow sky as they battle fire from the on the beachfront along Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu.David Crane/Los Angeles Daily News
Beachfront homes along the Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu are at risk of being engulfed by the flames
Caroline Brehman/EPA A Los Angeles firefighter drags a hose past cars trying in a smoky street in Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
Firefighters had to dodge residents evacuating areas affected by the fires
Caroline Brehman/EPA Rear view of a firefighter wearing a yellow helmet with the word 'Williams' on the back of it, as they fire a water cannon at a burning building in the Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
They deployed water cannons to extinguish the flames in affected areas
David Crane/Los Angeles Daily News A sign saying 'Malibu: 21 miles of scenic beauty' is seen in front of a burning building with firefighters in front of it, in MalibuDavid Crane/Los Angeles Daily News
The Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles borders well-known Malibu and Santa Monica
Mike Blake/Reuters People walk through a car park carrying luggage and belongings, with a smoky background and palm trees bending in high winds, on the west side of LA.Mike Blake/Reuters
People rushed to gather important belongings and pets while fleeing
Josh Edelson/AFP A McDonald's restaurant is seen behind a burning palm tree bent by high winds in PasadenaJosh Edelson/AFP
The usually iconic-looking palm trees of Los Angeles have bent and burned in the wake of the wildfires
David Swanson/AFP A silhouetted firefighter fires a water cannon in front of huge flames in a valley with burning hills and a fire helicopter in the background in Pacific PalisadesDavid Swanson/AFP
Helicopters worked alongside fire officers to try and stop the spread across hilly, wooded areas of west LA
Caroline Brehman/EPA A firefighter helps their colleague wrap up in gear with burning forestry in the background in the Pacific Palisades.Caroline Brehman/EPA
Weary firefighters have been battling the wildfires throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday

Can Susie Wiles, Trump’s Chief of Staff, Survive?

10 January 2025 at 01:34
As Ms. Wiles heads to Washington, the view in Trump World is that the president-elect’s closest aide and veteran strategist has a better chance than anyone.

© Doug Mills/The New York Times

Susie Wiles has told President-elect Donald J. Trump that it is her intention to stay all four years as chief of staff. “I’m going to try my best and give it everything I have,” she said.

Germany Approves Tribunal to Decide Nazi-Looted Art Claims

10 January 2025 at 01:50
The new body will be easier to access and its decisions will be legally binding. But some lawyers and Jewish heirs are not happy with the reform.

© John Macdougall/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Germany’s culture minister Claudia Roth, center, said that the reform would enable Germany to better meet its commitment to “fair and just solutions” for Nazi-looted art claims.

France Indicts Founder of Notorious Website Used in Pelicot Rape Case

The site, coco.fr, was shut down in June after being linked to more than 23,000 sexual abuse and other cases in France alone, including the rape trial that shocked the country last year.

© Christophe Simon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Gisèle Pelicot leaving the courthouse in Avignon, France, after a hearing in November.
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