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Today — 1 May 2025News

事实查核|网传视频显示,白宫墙上挂着「2028竞选红帽」销售图?

查核结果:错误

一分钟完读:

近日在微博、X等平台上流传一则短视频,画面是美国总统特朗普向福克斯新闻记者展示白宫墙上挂着的「2028竞选红帽」销售页面截图,特朗普还问记者,「很酷,对吧?」

但经查,福克斯新闻播出的原始影像中,挂在白宫墙上的是《独立宣言》文件,社媒用户传播的短视频显然经过修改。

深度分析:

微博大VX蓝勾用户在4月25日发布一则16秒的短视频,画面是美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump, 又译川普)向福克斯新闻 (Fox News)主持人劳拉‧殷格拉汉(Laura Ingraham)介绍白宫椭圆形办公室,并且揭开挂在墙上的帘子,里面的相框展示写着「TRUMP 2028」红色帽子的图像。

在短视频中,特朗普向殷格拉汉说,「这很酷,对吧?昨天才挂上的。妳认为拜登会这么做吗?我不认为。」字幕写着「特朗普向劳拉展示惊人的东西」。

转传这则短视频的社媒用户宣称,特朗普「把(2028竞选帽子)网站的销售页面截图起来,像一幅油画,挂在白宫里,还挂了个帘子,自己亲自向福克斯记者Laura揭幕」。

社媒流传一则短视频,美国总统特朗普在白宫办公室墙上挂着竞选红帽的图像。
社媒流传一则短视频,美国总统特朗普在白宫办公室墙上挂着竞选红帽的图像。
(微博截图)

亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab, AFCL)以关键字查询,找到福克斯新闻网站上的相符影像,播出时间为2025年3月中。在福克斯新闻的原始影像3分28秒处,出现了和网传短视频高度相似的画面,特朗普向殷格拉汉展示挂在白宫办公室墙上的相框,但不同的是,特朗普拉开帘子后,相框里放的是《独立宣言》文件,字幕也写着「特朗普向劳拉展示独立宣言」。网传短视频的画面显然经过修改。

福克斯新闻的原始影片显示,美国总统特朗普展示挂在白宫墙上的是独立宣言。
福克斯新闻的原始影片显示,美国总统特朗普展示挂在白宫墙上的是独立宣言。
(福克斯新闻截图)

AFCL注意到,网传短视频右下角有「Dilley Meme Team」的浮水印,据《英国广播电台》(BBC)新闻报道,这是一个制作支持特朗普影片和图像的团体,提供许多讽刺政治内容;但没有迹象表明,该团体是由特朗普竞选团队所资助。

根据《美国广播公司》(ABC)等多家媒体近期新闻报道,特朗普的网路商店开始贩售印有「Trump 2028」字样的红色帽子,此前特朗普曾暗示有意竞选第三任期。美国宪法第22条修正案规定,「无论何人,当选担任总统,职务不得超过两次」。

亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab)针对当今复杂媒体环境以及新兴传播生态而成立。我们本于新闻专业主义,提供专业查核报告及与信息环境相关的传播观察、深度报导,帮助读者对公共议题获得多元而全面的认识。读者若对任何媒体及社交平台传播的信息有疑问,欢迎以电邮afcl@rfa.org寄给亚洲事实查核实验室,由我们为您查证核实。

亚洲事实查核实验室更详细的介绍请参考本文。我们另有X、脸书、IG频道,欢迎读者追踪、分享、转发。 X这边请进:中文@asiafactcheckcn;英语:@AFCL_engFB在这里IG也别忘了

© AFCL制图

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A Flashing Economic Warning and a Sharp Political Jolt

1 May 2025 at 08:24
The report that the economy contracted in the first quarter underscored how much President Trump has at risk as he pursues an aggressive trade war.

© Pete Marovich for The New York Times

President Trump met with his cabinet at the White House on Wednesday.

David Horowitz, Leftist Turned Trump Defender, Is Dead at 86

1 May 2025 at 07:17
Once a Marxist, he came to embrace hard-right positions, including the falsehood that Mr. Trump won in 2020, and to mentor Stephen Miller, later the Trump adviser.

© Monica Almeida/The New York Times

David Horowitz in his office in Los Angeles in 2000.

New Mideast Project Is Latest Trump Company Deal Tied to Foreign Government

The Trump Organization agreed to partner on a real estate project in Qatar in the latest of a series of projects tied to foreign governments.

© Bassam Masoud/Reuters

Eric Trump looking at a model of a planned Trump project with officials in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday.

Meta warns of 'worse' experience for European users

1 May 2025 at 05:47
Getty Images Blonde woman looks frustrated while using her smartphone at homeGetty Images

Meta warned Wednesday that European users could face a "materially worse" experience following a key regulatory decision by the European Commission.

Meta recently introduced a "consent or pay" model which leaves users to choose between paying for a monthly subscription or letting Meta combine data it has collected on Facebook and Instagram.

Last week, the European Commision - the EU's executive - announced it had decided that the model does not comply with the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and fined Meta €200m (£171m).

"Based on feedback from the EC in connection with the DMA, we expect we will need to make some modifications to our model," Meta said in its quarterly earnings statement.

Meta said it expected those modifications "could result in a materially worse user experience for European users and a significant impact" to its European business and revenue.

The company said those impacts could kick in as soon as the third quarter of this year, and may be in effect while it appeals the decision.

Eric Seufert, analyst at Mobile Dev Memo, said Meta may be trying to strategically turn European users into "vocal cheerleaders" for its products amid a regulatory clampdown.

"What they ultimately want to do is turn public opinion against this regulatory regime which will demonstrably degrade the product offerings that are available to EU residents," Seufert told the BBC in a phone interview after the announcement.

Meta, formerly known as Facebook, includes the social media network in addition to the photo sharing app Instagram and the messaging service WhatsApp.

The Commission has said that Meta's consent-or-pay model does not allow users to freely consent to how their data is used.

The body is currently assessing another option Meta introduced last year, which the company says uses less personal data to display advertisements.

Meta was given 60 days to comply with the DMA's recent decision, or risk further fines.

Apple was also issued a €500m (£428m) fine over its App Store practices last week.

Meta's announcement comes as it released quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations.

The results showed Meta continues to bring in significant advertising revenue.

The company touted its AI tools on Wednesday.

"We're making good progress on AI glasses and Meta AI, which now has almost 1 billion monthly actives," Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement.

"Our community continues to grow and our business is performing very well," he said.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said the results showed that Meta has gone "full throttle on investments in AI" and notes

Britzman also noted the 6% jump in daily active users.

"There had been some concerns that we might see a slowdown in new users this year, but this was a very strong start and a signal to investors that Meta's family of apps has a grip on users that's hard to displace," Britzman said.

The EC fine comes amid what Meta called "an active regulatory landscape" in its earnings report.

The company is currently defending itself at trial in a case brought by the US Federal Trade Commission which alleges that Meta runs a social media monopoly.

The FTC, the top antitrust watchdog in the US, says Meta cemented its monopoly by purchasing Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014.

Trump, on Tariffs, Says ‘Maybe the Children Will Have 2 Dolls Instead of 30’

1 May 2025 at 06:13
At the end of a cabinet meeting, the president allowed for the possibility that trade war could disrupt supply chains.

© Krista Schlueter for The New York Times

Toy stores may see a shortage of dolls because of President Trump’s tariff policies, an executive of an industry group said.

At Vietnam War Memorial, Grief, Anger and a Sense of Finally Moving On

1 May 2025 at 08:44
Visitors to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial on the anniversary of the fall of Saigon said they still felt sadness and fury. And some, at last, had a sense of closure.

© Allison Robbert for The New York Times

A National Park Service volunteer, Sam Calabrese, helps a visitor trace a name at the Vietnam Veterans Memorial on Wednesday, the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon.

South Africa to review claims past ANC governments impeded apartheid crimes investigations

1 May 2025 at 04:02
Four men walking

South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is setting up an inquiry into whether past ANC governments interfered with the investigation and prosecution of apartheid-era crimes, amid criticism from the families of victims.

A group of 25 relatives and survivors of apartheid-era deaths and violence sued the government in January, claiming that interference from “the highest levels of government” blocked investigations into cases referred to the National Prosecuting Authority by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

On Wednesday, the presidency said in a statement: “Allegations of improper influence in delaying or hindering the investigation and prosecution of apartheid-era crimes have persisted from previous administrations.

“Through this commission, President Ramaphosa is determined that the true facts be established and the matter brought to finality … President Ramaphosa appreciates the anguish and frustration of the families of victims, who have fought for so many years for justice.”

The families suing the government include those of four men known as the Cradock Four, who were beaten, strangled with telephone wire, stabbed and shot to death in one of the most notorious killings of South Africa’s apartheid era.

In 1999, the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) denied six security officers amnesty for their role in the killings of Fort Calata, Sparrow Mkonto, Matthew Goniwe and Sicelo Mhlauli. The officers were never prosecuted and are all now dead.

The families criticised Ramaphosa’s decision that an inquiry should assess their claims for “constitutional damages” – their high court case asked for 167m rand (£7.3m) to fund further investigations and litigation, as well as memorials and public education – and said that their rights were violated.

They said in a statement that an inquiry would have no authority over these areas and would only be able to offer advice. “This fundamental shortcoming was pointed out to the president’s legal team, as well as the fact that it will likely result in the issues remaining unresolved for years. This will perpetuate the pain and trauma that the families and survivors have experienced for many years.”

South Africa’s governments have been led by the African National Congress party of Nelson Mandela since the end of apartheid over 30 years ago.

In March, Thabo Mbeki, who was president from 1999 to 2008, and the former justice minister Brigitte Mabandla applied to intervene in the families’ high court case. Mbeki has repeatedly denied interfering in decisions to prosecute apartheid-era cases.

US and Ukraine inch towards critical minerals deal

1 May 2025 at 05:10
Getty Images Earth and minerals are loaded onto a truck at an open-pit mine in Donetsk region in February.Getty Images
Ukraine has a vast mining industry and large reserves of rare minerals

Both the US and Ukraine have said they are broadly ready to sign a deal which would give American firms access to Ukraine's minerals.

"We are ready to sign this afternoon if they are," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine "decided to make last minute changes" to the agreement.

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was flying to Washington on Wednesday after an apparent breakthrough in negotiations.

Earlier, BBC News saw a draft copy of the deal, which provides for the creation of a joint Ukrainian-US investment fund to search for minerals in Ukraine, and set outs how revenues would be split.

On Wednesday afternoon a US source familiar with the talks criticised Ukraine for seeking to re-open some terms that had already been agreed upon over the weekend.

Both US and Ukrainian teams worked through the night on Friday into Saturday to finalise the documents, as well as into the early morning on Wednesday, the source told the BBC.

They added that the sticking points include governance of the fund, the transparency mechanism, and steps to ensure that all funds are fully traceable.

Despite these last minute negotiations, the signing could still happen by the end of Wednesday if the US side believes that Ukraine is complying with already agreed upon terms, the source said.

"Nothing's been removed," Bessent said when asked about any changes to the deal. "It's the same agreement that we agreed to on the weekend. No changes on our side."

Technical documents were signed last week by representatives of both countries.

In Kyiv, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that Ukraine expected the deal to be signed within "the next 24 hours".

"This is truly a good, equal and beneficial international agreement on joint investments in the development and recovery of Ukraine," Shmyhal said.

EPA Donald Trump and Zelensky sitting talking face to face at the Vatican.EPA
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky spoke face-to-face while they were in Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis at the weekend

Since returning to the White House, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed for an agreement as a prerequisite to offering any future security guarantees to Kyiv, as Ukraine continues to fight against invading Russian forces.

Ukraine is believed to have vast reserves of critical rare minerals like graphite, titanium and lithium beneath its soil. They are highly sought after because of their use in renewable energy, military applications and industrial infrastructure.

The Trump administration's push for access to another country's mineral wealth comes amid a growing trade war with China, where 90% of the world's current stocks are sourced from.

The draft deal also appears to give the US sweeping access to Ukrainian industries beyond minerals.

While it does not specify security support that Washington is willing to provide in return, it states that the deal is "a tangible demonstration of the United States of America's support for Ukraine's security".

The agreement comes days after Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral, and as talks between Moscow and Washington over a possible ceasefire in Ukraine continue.

The latest Trump-Zelensky talks appeared to be far more amicable than their meeting at the White House in February, and have led to a softening in tone from the US president towards his Ukrainian counterpart in the days that followed, as well as an increased level of criticism of Russia's attacks.

Speaking on Wednesday, Trump said: "As you know, we're looking for rare earth [minerals] all the time.

"They have a lot, and we made a deal, so we can start digging and doing what we have to do. It's also good for them."

The initial agreement was due to be signed in February, but fell apart following the heated exchange between the two leaders, when Trump accused Zelensky of "gambling with World War Three".

House Votes to Repeal California’s Clean Truck Policies

1 May 2025 at 06:22
Lawmakers voted to stop the state from requiring that an increasing share of new trucks sold there have zero emissions.

© Mark Abramson for The New York Times

An electric truck at the Port of Los Angeles in 2023.

访谈:维吾尔人权活动家茹仙·阿巴斯和她为自由的抗争

By: 维语组
1 May 2025 at 05:57

茹仙·阿巴斯(Rushan Abbas)是最杰出的维吾尔族群人权倡导者之一。她的回忆录《不屈:一个维吾尔人为自由的抗争》将在6月10日出版。

这本书讲述了她的个人旅程:从1980年代在中国做学生时从事民主运动,到1989年移居美国,再到她努力提醒人们关注维吾尔人的困境,即遭遇大规模拘禁和其它严重虐待——美国政府说这些行为构成了种族灭绝。

在她为之发声的人中,包括她的姐姐古丽仙·阿巴斯(Gulshan Abbas),她在2018年被中国监禁。她的父亲阿巴斯·包尔汉,一位杰出的维吾尔学者,因为她的活动被迫离开了新疆科学技术协会主席的职务。

茹仙·阿巴斯目前担任总部位于美国人权组织维吾尔运动(Campaign for Uyghurs)的执行主任。她表示,她由奥普蒂姆国际出版社(Optimum Publishing International)出版的这本书既是个人证词,也是为让世界范围内的政府和公民展开行动发出的政治呼吁。她接受了自由亚洲电台维吾尔语组记者Shahrezad Ghayrat的采访。这一采访已经过编辑,以保证篇幅和清晰度。

RFA:您的书名是《不屈》。在您经历和目睹了这一切之后,不屈对您个人意味着什么?

茹仙·阿巴斯:不屈意味着尽管我的人民和我的家庭经历了一切——分离、苦难、压迫和大规模拘禁——我们的精神、尊严、希望没有被摧毁。这是对韧性的见证,也是对这样的理念的证明:即使在最困难的条件下,维吾尔人也不会被打败,我们会抗争。我们会带着不屈的意志和勇气继续抗争。

RFA:您分享了您已故父亲的部分回忆录。他的故事怎样影响了您今天争取维吾尔自由的抗争?

茹仙·阿巴斯:我父亲的故事,他在文化大革命期间所经历的一切,是我自己争取维吾尔自由斗争的核心。他的回忆录是在他在美国的短暂时期写成的。他经历了难以想象的压迫,和我的母亲、我的祖父母一起,在文化大革命期间坚持着对后代的希望。他始终对后代抱有希望,为下一代倡导人权铺平了道路。我今天能在这里,就是因为他。我很小的时候就这样。我将我的人民和奉献交给这项事业,这都归功于他。因此,这不仅仅是我通过这本书写下的一个政治故事,也不仅仅是我个人的故事,或仅仅是我家庭的故事,它是一个属于所有在家乡的维吾尔人民的故事。

RFA:您将《不屈》描述为既一个个人故事,也是一个关于展开行动的政治呼吁。您最希望谁能听到这个呼吁:政策制定者、公众,还是两者都希望?

茹仙·阿巴斯:其实是两者——政策制定者和公众。我希望公众了解正在发生的事的人道代价,与我们站在一起。我也希望政策制定者能感受到采取行动的急迫,了解如果我们不追究中国专制政府的责任,世界将会付出什么样的代价。各国政府必须行动,向中国政府施加压力、追究责任,因为我们在谈论自由世界的未来,而不仅仅是正发生在维吾尔人身上的事或中国在它境内做的事。

RFA:尊者达赖喇嘛、(知名维吾尔人被迫害问题学者)郑国恩博士(Dr. Adrian Zenz)以及其他人都对您的书表达了支持。国际团结,包括来自不同社区的声音,在对抗中国压迫方面有多重要?

茹仙·阿巴斯:国际团结不可或缺,它很重要。中国的压迫是一个全球人权问题,它影响着未来的世界……它不仅仅是一个维吾尔人的问题。因此,我们不是在讨论一些只发生在维吾尔人身上的事,也是(关于)如果我们不发声、不向中国追责,中国将会怎样影响世界。因为如果我们不现在就阻止中共,我们的后代将会(面对)一个不自由的世界带来的后果。所以,当来自不同社区的声音站在一起,比如藏人、香港人、中国民运人士、穆斯林社区、学者和立法者,它就向世界表明,任河地方的不公都需要所有地方的行动。

RFA:您的书涵盖了拘禁营地、强制绝育和监控等痛苦的话题。对您来说,最难写的一章是什么,为什么?

茹仙·阿巴斯:正如你提到的,所有这些暴行——拘禁营地、强制绝育、强制结婚、监控、儿童被掳走——所有这些都不堪回首,但最后一章尤其难写。最后一章的题目是《希望之光》,它反映了我们作为一个组织或一个活动人士在过去几年里获得的一些成果。写关于成就的事尤其具有挑战性和困难,因为我们知道就在今天,维吾尔人民的现实状况仍然没有改变。这场种族灭绝仍在继续。我持续着每天与海外维吾尔人交谈,谈论我们的人民在家乡经历的可怕遭遇。因此,在局势如此,你知道,仍然如此可怕的情况下,要写关于成就的事并试着带给人们希望是困难的。

RFA:您一直是全球范围内坚定的人权提倡者。您如何看待海外侨民社区——不仅是维吾尔人,也包括其它群体在世界范围内捍卫人权承担的角色?

茹仙·阿巴斯:侨民社区有至关重要的角色。我们通过发声、组织、建立联盟,讲述那些高压政权试图封锁的故事。我们促成让这些迫害人权的行为保留在国际视野中,出现在国际对话中,并推动为中共残酷统治下的所有人追究责任和争取自由。因此,这个角色极为重要。

RFA:随着《不屈》的出版,您希望国际社会,特别是各国政府接下来采取什么具体行动?

茹仙·阿巴斯:我希望各国政府不要只说空洞的话和声明。我希望他们将开始采取行动,对那些从强迫劳动中获利的公司实施制裁,对那些对暴行负有责任的中国官员进行制裁,禁止维吾尔奴工制造的产品;并且在他们的对华外交政策中优先考虑人权问题,每当与中国进行贸易对话或任河形式的外交接触时,维吾尔问题都应被放在前面和核心。维吾尔人民理应生活在自由中,享有对他们人格尊严的完全尊重。

RFA:跨国镇压是您强调的一个主题。您个人是如何体验到中国试图让您在它的境外保持沉默的?

茹仙·阿巴斯:我经历了不断的骚扰、攻击、死亡威胁和通过网络威胁进行的诽谤……各种恐吓企图,但最具破坏性的跨国镇压例子是我姐姐的事,她是古丽仙·阿巴斯博士,一个退休医生。她被中国政府不公正地囚禁,这是对我作为一个美国公民的主张和在美国行使我的言论自由的报复。甚至尽管,你知道,我已经在中国之外生活了36年。他们仍然继续……针对我的姐姐,试图通过把她关进监狱让我沉默。因此,这是中国试图让我沉默的过程中,我经历的最严酷的跨国镇压。但他们犯了一个如此巨大的错误,持续地将我姐姐作为人质,不仅给了我完全的力量去更有力地抗争,而且这也成了国际舞台、论坛、峰会和各种平台邀请我讲话的原因,因为我是直接受害者的妹妹,她在狱中受到虚假的指控。所以,中国政府的这种企图正在反噬他们。它没有奏效,反而实际上给了我更多讲话的机会。

RFA:回顾您数十年的倡导,是什么在今天给了您关于维吾尔人民未来最多的希望?

茹仙·阿巴斯:给我带来最大希望的,是维吾尔人民的韧性,以及全球对中共是对全人类、自由和民主的威胁的认知和理解在增长。无论如何,我们的文化、我们的身份和我们的精神仍然存在,随着越来越多的人开始认识和了解中国共产党意图向全球输出它的压迫和专制模式,全世界越来越多的人与我们站在一起。

RFA:如果您能直接对那些感到害怕或被沉默的维吾尔年轻人传递一条信息,那会是什么?

茹仙·阿巴斯:你们并不孤单,你们的声音很重要。我们的历史、我们的身份和我们的未来通过你们存在。不管中共如何努力尝试,他们都无法抹杀掉我们是谁。让我们带着一种不屈的内在力量和精神,一同全力对抗极权体系。正义将会胜利,我们需要发声。除非我们今天就说出来,否则剩下的就只有遗憾。

© AP

维吾尔人权活动家茹仙·阿巴斯在华盛顿国会山举行的美国国会行政当局中国委员会听证会上作证。

中美贸易谈判罗生门 美专家:北京更在乎报复美国

“中国不退⋯⋯世界的公理就有人守护。”为应对美国关税战,中国外交部加大宣传力度,周二(29日)发布题为“不跪!”(Never Kneel Down)的中英双语宣传片,强调不会向霸权低头。同日稍晚,美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)则指关税战是否降温由中方决定,但其侵略性的经济模式将难以持久。

根据美国投资银行高盛的报告估算,美国总统特朗普发起的关税战,将使中国2025年的GDP增长降到约4%,2026年的GDP 预估增长降到约3.5%;美国对中国形同施加贸易禁运的做法,预计危及中国境内将近1620万个工作。

不过,中国外交部29日加大宣传中方强硬立场,发布题为“不跪“的中英语宣传片。在美国施加145%关税的压力下,北京的政策选择已经越发鲜明。

对于中国选择采取强硬的做法,前拜登政府国家安全委员会中国事务主任、现任布鲁金斯学会桑顿中国研究中心外交政策研究员秦江南(Jonathan Czin)对自由亚洲电台分析指出,相较于衡量中国经济可能承受的压力,北京更在乎的是反击美国总统这种对中国家关税的做法,“我认为在这几周里非常明显,他们并不急于这么做(谈判),实际上我认为北京方面想做的是,对美国进行报复,并采取一系列行动,他们希望让美国消费者、美国经济和一些关键的美国行业,像我们的科技行业,感受到痛苦,然后再采取任何形式的谈判。“

他进一步指出,”我认为北京不仅仅是在回应特朗普政府在解放日的举措。我认为他们还想向未来的美国总统政府传递一个信号,那就是,如果再次加征关税,中国将以让美国感到痛苦的方式反击。”

北京不急于谈判

自美国总统特朗普在4月2日宣布对美国贸易伙伴施加“对等关税”以来,美国贸易专家一度对中美贸易谈判感到乐观,认为一旦双方都承受不住压力,谈判就会水到渠成。

特朗普自4月10日也开始对中国松口,称自己与中国国家主席习近平有著”良好关系”,并对双方最终达成协议抱持乐观态度;17日,他又表示,“我认为我们会与中国达成一个非常好的协议”。在22日的白宫新闻发布会上,特朗普甚至进一步对税率做出表态,“145%是非常高的”,并指出该税率可以通过中美谈判降低。

但是中国商务部发言人在24日例行记者会上,否认中美双方已展开任何谈判,且强调“如果美方真想解决问题,就应该...彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施,通过平等对话找到解决分歧的办法。”

美国华盛顿智库亚洲协会政策研究所(ASPI)副主席、美国前贸易副代表科特勒(Wendy Cutler) 对本台指出,要求完全撤除关税对美国是“不切实际的(要求),而且中国对此也非常清楚。在准备长期(抗争)的同时,北京很显然相信时间是在他们那一方,” 中美谈判的前景已经更为复杂了。

美国《华尔街日报》23日引用一位白宫高级官员和知情人士指出,白宫正考虑削减对华关税至大约50%到65%之间。同时,政府也在考虑一种分级制度,类似于众议院中国问题委员会去年底提出的方案:对被美国视为不构成国家安全威胁的商品征收35%的关税,对被认为具有战略意义、关系到美国利益的商品征收至少100%的关税,整个制度在五年内逐步实施落实。

秦江南指出,随着特朗普政府不断做出表态,北京也在评估特朗普政府在谈判过程中,在多大程度上会自我妥协,“愿意在对方提出任何明确提案之前,不断让步来换取谈判的机会。”

他强调,”我认为习近平判断,中国在这场贸易战中能承受的痛苦指数比美国高“ , ”尤其是现在习近平已经进入第三个任期,他比上一次贸易战时更有权力。我认为他在国内政治上有更多的空间来度过这一局面。“

借贸易战加强控制和影响力

在贸易战展开后,习近平在4月14日展开为期一周东南亚之行,依次访问越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨;他一路反复强调“团结一致、共同应对外部威胁”。

秦江南指出,从访问结果看来,北京并未对这些国家提供很多诱因,但事实上北京在第一回合也不需要这么做,因为北京的目标是避免美国建构一个孤立中国的联盟,当美国的关税政策已经疏远了传统盟友和伙伴的同时,中国只要在充分了解美国政策对这些国家的伤害后,再提供一些诱因或好处就够了。

而且从另一角度来说,中国对美国的报复性反应,也是为了阻止第三国站队美国, 或在这些贸易问题上与美国站在一起,秦江南强调,”我认为他们已经传递了一个强烈的信号,就是中国是少数几个第一时间愿意采取报复行动的国家之一。“ 如果中国真的能够对美国经济造成痛苦,这将向像越南和其他国家,”特别是那些与中国有重要贸易关系的国家传送强烈讯息,提醒他们在与北京打交道时要小心谨慎。“

华盛顿智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)资深研究员、经济和贸易专家史剑道(Derek Scissors), 也对本台指出,北京的首要目标并非中国经济的繁荣,而是”在降低别国对自身经济影响力的同时,增加自身经济对他国的影响力。“ 他强调,如果在关税战后,中国出口和就业降低了对美国的依赖,”习近平会欢迎这个结果“。

对于未来中美谈判的前景和管道建立,科特勒指出,从美国财政部、商务部到贸易代表办公室,太多的官员可以参与谈判,“真正而紧迫的障碍是启动初步对话,推动重返谈判桌。但是如果白宫坚持在几乎没有任何准备的情况下进行领导人之间的通话,那么在近期内与中国重新接触可能仍将难以实现。”

秦江南也强调,特朗普被认为想要自己和习近平进行一对一的谈判,但是习近平的做法会恰恰相反。“对于习近平来说,尤其是在泽伦斯基事件之后,这种直接对话的风险太大了,可能会出现什么意外情况。我认为他的偏好是让下级人员,也就是那些“手下”,先进行这些困难的对话,先谈判这些复杂而棘手的问题,然后习近平实际上是谈判的收尾者...我认为这就是我们现在看到的僵局“。

© 路透社資料圖片

北京加强游说与美方谈判的国家,宣称美国行为霸道,并不可信:而特朗普则利用对中国以外国家的90日关税宽限期,争取签订双边贸易协议。

U.S. and Ukraine Sign Minerals Deal

The agreement is intended to give the U.S. access to proceeds from Ukraine’s reserves of minerals and to help fund the rebuilding of Ukraine when the fighting stops.

© Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

A uranium mine in Neopalymivka, Ukraine.

Meta Says It Anticipates Continued Growth Despite Tariffs

The Silicon Valley company made the revenue projection as it reported a 35 percent rise in profit in the first quarter.

© Jason Henry for The New York Times

Meta’s business has been robust in recent years as it has invested in using artificial intelligence to suggest different posts, videos and ads to users.

More Kneecap gigs cancelled after 'kill your MP' controversy

1 May 2025 at 03:18
Getty Images Three young men are standing close to each other posing for a photo. They are standing in front of a pink backdrop. One is crouched down and smiling. The man in the middle is wearing a Irish tricolour balaclava.Getty Images
Kneecap say they have faced a "smear campaign"

Three more concerts by Irish rap band Kneecap have been cancelled in Germany.

It comes after news that footage of the band allegedly calling for MPs to be killed is being assessed by counter-terrorism police.

A ticket site for the gigs in Hamburg, Berlin and Cologne states that the summer shows are no longer going ahead.

A number of politicians have been calling for the band to be uninvited from some UK gigs, with Tory MP Mark Francois saying the group should not be allowed to play Glastonbury in light of the ongoing police investigation.

Speaking on RTÉ's Prime Time on Tuesday, the band's manager said "moral hysteria" had taken hold and that the band are being held to a higher moral standard than politicians.

Daniel Lambert claimed a "concerted campaign" against the group is "solely about de-platforming artists".

"It's about telling the next young band, both through the music industry and through the political class, that you cannot speak about Palestine," he said.

On having gigs cancelled, the band's manager said: "It's not for us to worry, it's for us to have the strength of conviction that we did the right thing."

He added that going to Coachella was the right thing to do, and "all of this has emerged from that".

TV personality Sharon Osbourne called for the band's US work visas to be revoked after their performance at the Coachella music festival in California earlier this month, where they described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide.

Which Kneecap gigs have been cancelled?

Scheduled appearances at Hurricane and Southside festivals, also in Germany, were cancelled last week.

A gig at the Eden Project in Cornwall has also been cancelled.

On Tuesday, an Eden Sessions Limited spokesperson said: "Ticket purchasers will be contacted directly and will be fully refunded."

The band are set to support Fontaines DC at Boucher Playing Fields, Belfast, in August.

Speaking to BBC Radio Ulster's The Nolan Show, councillor Jim Rodgers said "serious consideration should be given" on whether the concert should go ahead.

"I've already spoken to some of the council officers and I'm hoping that the necessary action will be taken. We have to lead by example," he said.

"We would be sending out the wrong message if we were to allow this group to go ahead with their event."

A Belfast City Council spokesperson said: "Use of the venue for these events is managed via a legal agreement between the council and the promoter. Events programming remains a matter for the organisers.

"Any matter that an elected member wishes to raise would be considered by the relevant committee and full council."

Who are Kneecap?

Getty Images Three young men are posing for a photo. Two are wearing caps and one is wearing a green, white and orange balaclava.Getty Images
The group go by the stage names of Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara and DJ Próvaí

Kneecap are an Irish-speaking rap trio who have courted controversy with their provocative lyrics and merchandise.

The group was formed in 2017 by three friends who go by the stage names of Mo Chara, Móglaí Bap and DJ Próvaí.

Their rise to fame inspired a semi-fictionalised film starring Oscar-nominated actor Michael Fassbender.

The film won a British Academy of Film Award (Bafta) in February 2025.

'Smear campaign'

Last week, a video emerged of the west Belfast trio at a November 2023 gig appearing to show one person from the band saying: "The only good Tory is a dead Tory. Kill your local MP."

The daughter of the Conservative MP David Amess whose father was stabbed to death at a constituency surgery called for Kneecap to apologise.

In a statement on X, the band said that "an extract of footage, deliberately taken out of all context, is now being exploited and weaponised, as if it were a call to action".

They also called some of the backlash a "smear campaign" and said it was "a transparent effort to derail the real conversation" away from their messages of "love" and support for Palestine.

They added: "To the Amess and Cox families, we send our heartfelt apologies, we never intended to cause you hurt."

Getty Images A floral tribute to Jo Cox. Flowers are lying around a photo of Ms Cox.Getty Images
Jo Cox, the former Batley and Spen MP, was killed by far-right terrorist Thomas Mair in 2016, a week before the EU referendum vote

On Tuesday, the husband of murdered MP Jo Cox called on Kneecap to give a "real apology".

Brendan Cox, whose wife was killed in June 2016, said this was "only half an apology".

None of the members of Kneecap have been charged with any offences.

Royal Mail takeover approved by shareholders

1 May 2025 at 01:12
Getty Images A Royal Mail postman walks down a street in a high vis jacket delivering mailGetty Images

The sale of Royal Mail's parent company to a Czech billionaire has been cleared by shareholders.

The approval of the £3.6bn deal, first proposed a year ago, will see the 500-year institution taken over by Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group.

Just over 80% of the shareholders of International Distribution Services (IDS), Royal Mail's owner, voted in favour of the takeover on Wednesday afternoon.

Mr Kretinksy said "the pathway to success for IDS lies in taking a truly long-term view of the future".

One in six seats changed hands in Canada election

1 May 2025 at 03:15
Reuters People wait in line to register to vote at a polling station for Canada's federal election, in Toronto, OntarioReuters

While the government of Canada may not have changed hands, the federal election results are anything but business as usual.

Party leaders lost their own seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) now faces the possibility of life on the sidelines and the Liberal Party pulled off a dramatic turnaround in fortunes, all while led by a prime minister who wasn't even a member of Parliament (MP).

Preliminary results from Elections Canada show that 17% of seats - 59 out of 343 - changed hands in this election, up from just 7% - 22 out of 338 - in 2021.

The rise in the number of available seats in the House of Commons, from 338 to 343, reflects a new political map which accounts for changes in population.

Leaders from three of the five parties represented in the House of Commons failed to win their seats.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre - who was on course to become prime minister three months ago when his party held a double-digit lead in the polls - lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario to the Liberals.

Jagmeet Singh resigned as NDP leader after finishing third in his British Columbia seat of Burnaby Central, while the Green Party's co-leader Jonathan Pedneault came fifth in Outremont, Quebec.

Only Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois and Elizabeth May, the other Green co-leader, retained their seats while Mark Carney became an MP for the first time.

All 59 seats that flipped went to either the Liberals or Conservatives.

The NDP lost 17 of the 24 seats they were defending - 10 to the Conservatives and seven to the Liberals - and fell short of the 12 seats required for official party status.

This means the loss of parliamentary funding for things like office budgets and technology equipment, as well as fewer chances to ask questions of the government and sit on committees.

NDP losses were part of a wider shift away from Canada's smaller parties.

The Bloc Québécois had 35 seats going into Monday's vote, taking into consideration the impact of boundary changes on 2021 results - calculated by Elections Canada - and last year's victory in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election.

It lost 13 of them in Quebec, with all but one going to the Liberals.

Terrebonne, a suburb of Montreal, flipped from the Bloc to the Liberals by just a few dozen votes.

Meanwhile, the Greens lost their Kitchener Centre riding, the first Ontario seat in their history, to the Liberals.

A map shows election results in 2021 and 2025 in and around Montreal in Quebec. Terrebonne has flipped from Bloc Quebecois to the Liberals. There is one NDP seat that has not changed. Les Pays-d'en-Haut has flipped. from BQ to Liberal along with Châteauguay-Les Jardins-de-Napierville.

Despite making overall gains it was still a turbulent night for incumbents in the two largest parties.

The Liberals gave up 16 seats - all to the Conservatives - which was twice as many as the eight they lost in 2021.

Nine of the 16 losses came in Toronto and the surrounding "905" - places that all share the same area code.

The Conservatives saw 12 of their MPs suffer defeat including Poilievre, up from nine four years ago.

All 12 were won by Liberals, including Toronto St Paul's which the Conservatives previously flipped in a 2024 by-election.

A map shows the election results in 2021 and in 2025 in areas surrounding Toronto. In Toronto itself, most seats are Liberal red including one in St Paul's won back from the Conservatives. It had been lost in a by-election in 2024. The Conservatives have turned 9 seats from red to blue. And the NDP have lost their only seat on this map to the Liberals.
The words "Canada election" on a red background with a white maple leaf

El Salvador Is Said to Have Spurned U.S. Request to Return Abrego Garcia

It remained unclear whether the diplomatic effort was a genuine bid by the White House to address the plight of the immigrant, Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia.

© Eric Lee/The New York Times

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has refused to release a Salvadoran immigrant who the Justice Department has said was wrongly deported.

A.I. Can Trick You, Warns Book That Hid A.I.’s Help Writing It

1 May 2025 at 04:29
People were deceived. Accusations of dishonesty and even illegality flew. But the man behind the book defends it, calling it not a prank but a “philosophical experiment.”

The cover of the book, with its authorship attributed to an invented philosopher.

Cyril Ramaphosa sets up inquiry into claims of interference with investigation of apartheid-era crimes

1 May 2025 at 04:02
Four men walking

South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is setting up an inquiry into whether past ANC governments interfered with the investigation and prosecution of apartheid-era crimes, amid criticism from the families of victims.

A group of 25 relatives and survivors of apartheid-era deaths and violence sued the government in January, claiming that interference from “the highest levels of government” blocked investigations into cases referred to the National Prosecuting Authority by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

On Wednesday, the presidency said in a statement: “Allegations of improper influence in delaying or hindering the investigation and prosecution of apartheid-era crimes have persisted from previous administrations.

“Through this commission, President Ramaphosa is determined that the true facts be established and the matter brought to finality … President Ramaphosa appreciates the anguish and frustration of the families of victims, who have fought for so many years for justice.”

The families suing the government include those of four men known as the Cradock Four, who were beaten, strangled with telephone wire, stabbed and shot to death in one of the most notorious killings of South Africa’s apartheid era.

In 1999, the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) denied six security officers amnesty for their role in the killings of Fort Calata, Sparrow Mkonto, Matthew Goniwe and Sicelo Mhlauli. The officers were never prosecuted and are all now dead.

The families criticised Ramaphosa’s decision that an inquiry should assess their claims for “constitutional damages” – their high court case asked for 167m rand (£7.3m) to fund further investigations and litigation, as well as memorials and public education – and said that their rights were violated.

They said in a statement that an inquiry would have no authority over these areas and would only be able to offer advice. “This fundamental shortcoming was pointed out to the president’s legal team, as well as the fact that it will likely result in the issues remaining unresolved for years. This will perpetuate the pain and trauma that the families and survivors have experienced for many years.”

South Africa’s governments have been led by the African National Congress party of Nelson Mandela since the end of apartheid over 30 years ago.

In March, Thabo Mbeki, who was president from 1999 to 2008, and the former justice minister Brigitte Mabandla applied to intervene in the families’ high court case. Mbeki has repeatedly denied interfering in decisions to prosecute apartheid-era cases.

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