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Today — 30 April 2025News

Trump congratulates Canada's Carney as they agree to meet in 'near future'

30 April 2025 at 06:05
AFP via Getty Images Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to the media upon arriving at his office on Parliament Hill April 29. 
He is smiling and waving, and wearing a dark blue suit and white shirt. AFP via Getty Images

US President Donald Trump has called Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to congratulate him on his victory in the country's general election and the two have agreed meet in the near future.

The two countries were expected to enter talks about a new economic and security relationship after Monday's vote.

Trump's trade tariffs and repeated comments undermining Canada's sovereignty overshadowed the race, which ended with Carney's Liberals projected to win a minority government, according to public broadcaster CBC.

That result will make Carney's pressing tasks of negotiating with his US counterpart and tackling a range of domestic issues more of a challenge, as he'll need to wrangle support from other political parties.

In their first call since the election, Trump congratulated Carney on his victory, according to the prime minister's office on Tuesday.

The office also said the two leaders had "agreed on the importance of Canada and the United States working together – as independent, sovereign nations – for their mutual betterment".

The Liberals will need to rely on their support to pass legislation through the House of Commons.

They also face possible defeat in any vote of confidence in the chamber.

Results map

The Liberals are most likely to find willing partners with the diminished left-wing New Democrats, who have in the past supported the Liberals, and the Bloc Québécois.

The Liberals are projected to have won 169 seats, three short of the 172 needed for a majority in Canada's House of Commons.

It still marks a historic turnaround for a party that had seemed on course for collapse just months ago.

Carney, a former central banker for Canada and the UK, will continue as prime minister, having stepped into the role last month following his unpopular predecessor Justin Trudeau's resignation.

One issue where it may be easy for the Liberals to find support in the House is in passing legislation to help workers and industries affected by US tariffs - something all parties swung behind on the campaign trail.

On Tuesday morning, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet suggested Carney could benefit from at least a period of stability in the House.

Blanchet urged a "truce" among parties while Canada negotiated trade with the US, saying it was clear Canadians wanted political stability in unstable times.

He said it wasn't time for other parties to "threaten to overthrow the government anytime soon" and didn't see any scenario "other than collaboration for a period of slightly over a year".

The leader of the sovereigntist party, which only runs candidates in Quebec, did urge Carney to avoid pressing the province on certain issues, noting that collaboration goes both ways.

On Tuesday, the White House commented on Carney's win, with deputy press secretary Anna Kelly saying: "The election does not affect President Trump's plan to make Canada America's cherished 51st state."

In an interview with the BBC, Carney said that Canada deserves "respect" from the US and he will only allow a Canada-US trade and security partnership "on our terms".

Carney has told the BBC that a 51st state scenario was "never, ever going to happen".

Meanwhile, new US ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, said in a video statement that he is "committed to making progress in this great relationship".

Carney has also promised action on a range of domestic issues, including tackling the country's housing crisis and tax cuts for lower- and middle-income Canadians.

The prime minister also needs to prepare for the G7 summit in June, which Canada is hosting in the province of Alberta.

In Monday's election, both the Liberals and the Conservatives saw a significant rise in their share of the national vote compared with four years ago.

The Conservative Party came in second, on track to win 144 seats, and will form Official Opposition.

Increased support for Canada's two largest parties has come at the expense of smaller parties, particularly the NDP, whose share of the popular vote is down by around 12 percentage points.

Voter turnout for the election was 67%.

Both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost their seats, with Singh announcing he will step down as leader of the left-wing party.

Jenkyns at odds with Farage on special needs

30 April 2025 at 05:22
Getty Images Andrea Jenkyns Getty Images

Reform UK's candidate to be the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, has appeared to contradict her party's leader Nigel Farage over their outlook on children with special educational needs, or SEND.

Dame Andrea, a former Conservative minister, has spoken publicly about both her and her young son having attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

In a news conference last week, Nigel Farage said that he thought there were too many diagnoses of special educational needs in children.

Farage said that "so many of these diagnoses, for SEND before 18, for disability register after 18 – so many of these have been conducted on Zoom, with the family GP.

"And I think we are massively – I'm not being heartless, I'm being frank – I think we are massively over diagnosing those with mental illness problems and those with other general behavioural disabilities."

Dame Andrea told the BBC that she and Mr Farage "are not always going to agree on everything" when asked to respond to his remarks.

"In no party do you ever agree with everything. I didn't with the Conservatives did I - I was the worst critic," she added.

"All I can go on is my personal experience as a parent, as somebody who's neurodiverse myself, and as a former MP who saw some of the very sad stories of children, how they've been left behind really."

Dame Andrea said she had seen people waiting three or four years to receive a diagnosis for a child, "by which time they're going into secondary education and they're way behind."

"I pulled my child out of mainstream into private school because he was two years behind, and as a parent you do the best for your child. I know his daily struggles and to me it's about ensuring everybody gets that best start in life, no matter what your background is."

A source close to Nigel Farage said he was seeking to argue that mental health issues were being over diagnosed in children.

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Life inside Iraq's 'Forbidden Zone' controlled by Turkey

30 April 2025 at 07:29
Phil Caller A middle-aged man in a head scarf and brown jacket stares contemplativelyPhil Caller
For generations Sherwen Sergeli and his family have made a living from his village's land, but that's now under threat

Nestled in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan sits the picturesque village of Sergele.

For generations villagers have made a living growing pomegranates, almonds and peaches and foraging in the surrounding forests for wild fruits and spices.

But Sergele, located 16km (10 miles) from the border with Turkey, has become increasingly surrounded by Turkish military bases, which are dotted across the slopes.

One, perched halfway up the western ridge, looms over the village, while another in the east is under construction.

At least seven have been built here over the past two years, including one by a small dam that regulates Sergele's water supply, rendering it off limits to villagers.

"This is 100% a form of occupation of Kurdish [Iraqi Kurdistan] lands," says farmer Sherwan Sherwan Sergeli, 50, who has lost access to some of his land.

"The Turks ruined it."

Phil Caller A panoramic shot of an attractive village with small houses and other buildings nestled among trees, greenery and farming land. Mountains loom over the village Phil Caller
Sergele, a village in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, is now on the front line of Turkey's war with the Kurdish militant PKK group

Sergele is now in danger of being dragged into what's known locally as the "Forbidden Zone" - a large strip of land in northern Iraq affected by Turkey's war with the Kurdish militant group the PKK, which launched an insurgency in southern Turkey in 1984.

The Forbidden Zone spans almost the entire length of the Iraqi border with Turkey and is up to 40km (25 miles) deep in places.

Community Peacemaker Teams, a human rights group based in Iraqi Kurdistan, says that hundreds of civilians have been killed by drone and air strikes in and around the Forbidden Zone. According to a 2020 Kurdistan parliamentary report, thousands have been forced off their land and whole villages have been emptied out by the conflict.

Sergele is now effectively on the front line of Turkey's war with the PKK.

When the BBC World Service Eye Investigations team visited the area, Turkish aircraft pummelled the mountains surrounding the village to root out PKK militants, who have long operated from caves and tunnels in northern Iraq.

Much of the land around Sergele had been burned by shelling.

"The more bases they put up, the worse it gets for us," says Sherwan.

A map showing northern Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, the Forbidden Zone, the border with Syria, Turkey and Iran, and the Turkish military bases dotted around northern Iraq

Turkey has been rapidly growing its military presence in the Forbidden Zone in recent years, but until now the scale of this expansion was not publicly known.

Using satellite imagery assessed by experts and corroborated with on-the-ground reporting and open-source content, the BBC found that as of December 2024, the Turkish military had built at least 136 fixed military installations across northern Iraq.

Through its vast network of military bases, Turkey now holds de-facto control of more than 2,000 sq km (772 square miles) of Iraqi land, the BBC's analysis found.

Satellite images further reveal that the Turkish military has built at least 660km (410 miles) of roads connecting its facilities. These supply routes have resulted in deforestation and left a lasting imprint on the region's mountains.

While a few of the bases date back to the 1990s, 89% have been constructed since 2018, after which Turkey began significantly expanding its military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The Turkish government didn't respond to the BBC's requests for interviews, but has maintained that its military bases are necessary to push back the PKK, which is designated a terrorist organisation by Ankara and a number of Western nations, including the UK.

Phil Caller A middle-aged man in a striped shirt picks apples from an apple tree. He has surrounded by fruit trees Phil Caller
Salam Saeed, whose land is in the shadow of a large Turkish military base, has not been able to cultivate his vineyard for three years

The sub-district capital of Kani Masi, which is only 4km (2.5 miles) from the Iraqi-Turkish border and parts of which are within the Forbidden Zone, may offer a glimpse into Sergele's future.

Once famous for its apple production, few residents remain here now.

Farmer Salam Saeed, whose land is in the shadow of a large Turkish base, hasn't been able to cultivate his vineyard for the past three years.

"The moment you get here, you will have a drone hover over you," he tells the BBC.

"They will shoot you if you stay."

The Turkish military first set up here in the 1990s and has been consolidating its presence since.

Its main military base, featuring concrete blast walls, watch and communication towers and space for armoured personnel carriers to move inside, is much more developed than the smaller outposts around Sergele.

Salam, like some other locals, believes Turkey ultimately wants to claim the territory as its own.

"All they want is for us to leave these areas," he adds.

Phil Caller A distant view of a building and trucks on the edge of a mountainPhil Caller
Few residents remain in Kani Masi, where a large Turkish military base (pictured) is now present

Little leverage

Near Kani Masi, the BBC saw first-hand how Turkish forces have effectively pushed back the Iraqi border guard, which is responsible for protecting Iraq's international boundaries.

At several locations, the border guards were manning positions well inside Iraqi territory, directly opposite Turkish troops, unable to go right up to the border and potentially risk a clash.

"The posts that you see are Turkish posts," says General Farhad Mahmoud, pointing to a ridge just across a valley, about 10km (6 miles) inside Iraqi territory.

But "we cannot reach the border to know the number of posts", he adds.

Turkey's military expansion in Iraqi Kurdistan - fuelled by its rise as a drone power and growing defence budget - is seen as part of a broader foreign policy shift towards greater interventionism in the region.

Similar to its operations in Iraq, Turkey has also sought to establish a buffer zone along its border with Syria to contain Syrian armed groups allied with the PKK.

In public, Iraq's government has condemned Turkey's military presence in the country. But behind closed doors it has accommodated some of Ankara's demands.

In 2024, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly fight the PKK.

But the document, obtained by the BBC, did not place any limitations on Turkish troops in Iraq.

Iraq depends on Turkey for trade, investment and water security, while its fractured internal politics have further undermined the government's ability to take a strong stance.

Iraq's national government did not respond to the BBC requests for comment.

iPlayer strap graphic

Meanwhile, the rulers of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan have a close relationship with Ankara based on mutual interests and have often downplayed the civilian harm due to Turkey's military action.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), an arch enemy of the PKK, dominates the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and has officially been in charge since 2005, when Iraq's constitution granted the region its semi-autonomous status.

The KDP's close ties with Turkey have contributed to the region's economic success and have strengthened its position, both against its regional political rivals and with the Iraqi government in Baghdad, with which it tussles for greater autonomy.

Hoshyar Zebari, a senior member of the KDP's politburo, sought to blame the PKK for Turkey's presence in Iraqi Kurdistan.

"They [the Turkish military] are not harming our people," he told the BBC.

"They are not detaining them. They are not interfering in them going about their business. Their focus, their sole goal is the PKK."

Phil Caller A middle-aged man in a white shirt stands in front of a burned-out vehicle in a field of straw, with mountains in the distance. Phil Caller
When Hashem Shaker filed a complaint after surviving an air strike he was detained by Kurdish security forces and held for eight months on suspicion of supporting the PKK - an accusation he and his family deny

The conflict shows no signs of ending, despite the PKK's long-jailed leader Abdulla Ocalan calling in February for his fighters to lay down arms and disband.

Turkey has continued to shell targets across Iraqi Kurdistan, while the PKK claimed responsibility for downing a Turkish drone last month.

And while violent incidents in Turkey have declined since 2016, according to a tally by the NGO Crisis Group, those in Iraq have spiked, with civilians living on the border region facing growing risk of death and displacement.

One of those killed was 24-year-old Alan Ismail, a stage-four cancer patient hit by an air strike in August 2023 while on a trip to the mountains with his cousin, Hashem Shaker.

The Turkish military has denied carrying out a strike that day, but a police report seen by the BBC attributes the incident to a Turkish drone.

When Hashem filed a complaint in a local court about the attack he was detained by Kurdish security forces and held for eight months on suspicion of supporting the PKK - an accusation he and his family deny.

"It has destroyed us. It's like killing the whole family," says Ismail Chichu, Alan's father.

"They [the Turks] have no rights to kill people in their own country on their own land."

Turkey's Defence Ministry did not respond to the BBC's requests for comment. It has previously told the media that the Turkish armed forces follow international law, and that in the planning and execution of their operations they only target terrorists, while taking care to prevent harm to civilians.

Phil Caller A middle-aged man in white shirts sits contemplatively on a large brown sofa, his hands folded in his lap, as he stares aheadPhil Caller
Ismail Chichu says he wants the Kurdish authorities to acknowledge his son's death and send their condolences

The BBC has seen documents suggesting Kurdish authorities may have acted to help Turkey evade accountability for civilian casualties.

Confidential papers seen by the BBC show a Kurdish court closed the investigation into Alan's killing, saying the perpetrator was unknown.

And his death certificate - issued by Kurdish authorities and seen by the BBC - says he died because of "explosive fragments".

Failing to mention when victims of air strikes have died as a result of violence, rather than an accident, makes it difficult for families to seek justice and compensation, to which they're entitled under both Iraqi and Kurdish law.

"In most of the death certificates, they only wrote 'infijar', which means explosion," says Kamaran Othman from Community Peacemaker Teams.

"It can be anything exploding.

"I think the Kurdish Regional Government doesn't want to make Turkey responsible for what they are doing here."

The KRG said it acknowledged the "tragic loss of civilians resulting from military confrontation between the PKK and Turkish army in the region".

It added that "a number of casualties" had been documented as "civilian martyrs", meaning they have been unjustly killed and entitling them to compensation.

Almost two years after Alan was killed, his family is still waiting, if not for compensation, at least for acknowledgement from the KRG.

"They could at least send their condolences - we don't need their compensation," says Ismail.

"When something is gone, it's gone forever."

Mark Carney Has to Deliver on Trump and the Economy After Canada Election Win

30 April 2025 at 08:38
The Canadian prime minister achieved a stunning political upset, running on an anti-Trump platform and promising to revive the economy. Now, he needs to deliver.

© Cole Burston for The New York Times

Prime Minister Mark Carney addressing supporters on Monday night in Ottawa after his Liberal Party won the national elections.

No Evidence of Cremations at Mexican Ranch, Attorney General Says

30 April 2025 at 07:43
Mexico’s top prosecutor said the ranch, which some groups searching for missing relatives had called an “extermination camp,” had been used by a cartel for training and recruiting.

© Alfredo Estrella/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Attorney General Alejandro Gertz of Mexico said on Tuesday that the authorities had no idea how many people may have come through the ranch.

Floridians Are Getting Glimpses of What Aggressive Immigration Enforcement Looks Like

30 April 2025 at 07:40
Two new laws that were demanded by Gov. Ron DeSantis have entangled every level of government, unnerving residents who had long considered the state an immigrant haven.

© Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Gov. Ron DeSantis has said that he wants to be on the front lines of helping the Trump administration carry out mass deportations.

Humans’ Wounds Heal Much More Slowly Than Other Mammals’

30 April 2025 at 07:01
We naked apes need Band-Aids, but shedding the fur that speeds healing in other mammals may have helped us evolve other abilities.

© J. Ritterbach/Tierfotoagentur, via Alamy

A chimpanzee with an owie. Furry animals are covered in stem-cell-packed follicles, which help quickly close up wounds in mice or monkeys.

Judge Orders Trump Officials to Disburse Funding for Radio Free Europe

By: Minho Kim
30 April 2025 at 07:09
The news organization relies almost exclusively on congressional funding, which the Trump administration has held up for weeks.

© Martin Divisek/EPA, via Shutterstock

The headquarters of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Prague in February.

Kennedy Advises New Parents to ‘Do Your Own Research’ on Vaccines

In an interview with Dr. Phil, the health secretary offered false information about vaccine oversight and revealed a lack of basic understanding of new drug approvals.

© Al Drago for The New York Times

In suggesting vaccines are unsafe, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. contradicted decades of advice from public health experts.

Paramount Board Clears Possible Path for Settling Trump’s ‘60 Minutes’ Lawsuit

Paramount’s interest in settling has dismayed CBS’s news division. The executive producer of “60 Minutes” abruptly resigned last week.

© Pool photo by Ron Sachs; Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images; Doug Mills/The New York Times

Shari Redstone, Paramount’s controlling shareholder; Bill Owens, who resigned as executive producer of “60 Minutes”; and President Trump.

The Six Triple Eight: Black, Female Soldiers Honored for World War II Success

30 April 2025 at 06:29
The women were sent to Europe to clear a backlog of 17 million pieces of mail waiting to be sent to U.S. troops.

© National Archives, via Associated Press

An undated photograph of members of the 6888th Central Postal Directory Battalion, an all-female, all-Black unit formed during World War II.

Andy Bey, Jazz Singer Renowned for His Vocal Range, Dies at 85

30 April 2025 at 06:22
An admirer of Nat King Cole, he began as a child performer and as part of a family trio before emerging as a master of the American Songbook.

© Christian Rose/Roger Viollet, via Getty Images

Andy Bey performing in 2004. The sheer reach of his voice, and his expert control over it, could astound audiences.

Trump Signs Executive Order Walking Back Some Auto Tariffs

Most levies on imported cars and car parts will remain in place, but automakers have secured some relaxation of the trade policy.

© Nic Antaya for The New York Times

A Ford assembly plant in Wayne, Mich. Automakers have welcomed any relaxation of tariffs, which they said would raise car prices, cause sales to fall and threaten their financial viability.

Canada Election Results: Mark Carney and the Liberal Party Fall Short of Majority

30 April 2025 at 06:02
Final results from Monday’s crucial election showed Mark Carney’s party had secured 169 of 343 seats and would need help from other parties to pass laws.

© Cole Burston for The New York Times

Prime Minister Mark Carney during his election night party in Ottawa on Monday.

How Trump May Unintentionally Cut Carbon Emissions

30 April 2025 at 03:44
Despite his administration’s lack of concern about climate change, a recession would give the atmosphere a break. At least in the short term.

© Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

犀牛娱乐|电影市场已回到2012年水准

30 April 2025 at 05:07

当下的电影市场,正处于最为割裂的时期。

《哪吒2》的150亿+表现惊动了全世界,另一边当下的市场大盘却处于最为冰冷的时期,这种极致的割裂也是从未有过的。尤其是后春节档时期,相继经历了清明档倒退55%,工作日连续下探1000万+的绝境,更可怕的是接下来的五一档丝毫没有回暖的迹象。整个4月份的电影市场,已经处在了历史的低位。

市场倒退达13年

遥想2023年的电影市场,犀牛娱乐最常用的论点便是市场退回到了7年前,去年显得更加严峻,常用的词汇便是市场倒退10年。此刻,内地电影市场再度下探,截至目前4月份累计票房刚刚突破11亿大关,预计将以近12亿体量收官,这意味着,中国电影市场,单月体量已经倒退了13年之多,回到2012年水准。

img

市场如此幅度的下沉,影院彻底被抛弃的现象,放眼过去十几年都是较为罕见的。纵观全年电影市场来看,4月、9月、11月历来都是年度的一个低谷时期,可即便如此,2025年4月份来到11亿+票房,显然是极为不正常的数据,已经不能简单用腰斩、膝斩来形容,属于一个超跌的状态。

去掉口罩时期的市场表现外,最近一次单月不足11亿体量要追溯到2012年11月,单月11亿基本属于2012年左右的水准。从列表可以清晰的看出,今年4月份表现已经比2012年4月还要低,比巅峰期的2017年有着明显的差距,较巅峰期下滑多达74%之多。

一个月票房11亿+,单日平均3000多万,这是非常可怕的数字,要知道2012年全国只有3200多家影院,如今早已来到了1.1万+的影院数量,两者的效率根本不可同日而语。影院数量翻了接近4倍,票价亦是大幅的提升,但最终票房依然不如13年前,这肯定出现了问题。

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另外,今年4月份的冰冷,也是出现了各种见证历史的时刻,拿今年4月2日的票房来看,单日票房仅为1200多万,同样属于13年前的表现,也是今年单日票房最低的一天。更可怕的是,单日总场次34.2万,但总出票竟然仅有34.7万,这意味全国所有的影城,一个影厅平均只有一个人,意味着“全国人均包场”,也相当于大部分场次是没有人的。

一个人一个厅,如此恐怖的效率,意味着对于绝大部分影城来说,关门都要好过营业,处于一个严重的亏损模式。在《哪吒2》带来的强大赚钱效应之后,影城可能将面临长达几个月的亏损。此刻的电影市场,正经历着前所未有的寒冷,“人均包场”注定将载入史册。

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继续拆解今年4月份市场,可以发现更加严峻的问题。哪怕数字如此寒冷,但单月票房冠军依然由《哪吒2》所霸占,要知道《哪吒2》是一部已经上映3个月的电影了,依然还得靠着它最后一丝热度来支撑着电影大盘,对于新片来说,这才是更加尴尬的。

当冯小刚新片《向阳花》顺利突破2亿大关之后,导演发朋友圈表示,《向阳花》成为了春节档之后首部票房突破2亿的电影,也是首部未亏损的电影,背后充满了无奈和唏嘘。偌大的内地电影市场,竟然连续2个月几乎没有市场的输出,身处原地踏步的节奏当中。

市场倒退13年、全国人均包场都是严重不正常的。在4月期间,其中4月18日,国家电影局、中央广播电视总台在北京启动“中国电影消费年”,“预计投入不少于10亿元观影优惠补贴,围绕重点档期支持电影消费季”。可当下面临的绝境,岂是10亿观影补贴能够解决的。

如今的内地市场只有三个档期

当下的整个电影行业,已经进入了一个恶性循环:越是冷档期,越是没有片子,于是市场也就越冷,于是越是没有片子,如此反复循环之后,当下的内地电影市场,仅剩下三个真正意义的档期了,即春节档、暑期档以及国庆档。全年分为了三个档期以及其他档期。

CDT 档案卡
标题:犀牛娱乐|电影市场已回到2012年水准
作者:犀牛娱乐
发表日期:2025.4.29
来源:微信公众号“犀牛娱乐”
主题归类:中国电影
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

正如前面提到的恶性循环,当档期无人问津之后,三个档期受到的追捧只会越来越强,最终总体票房占比也越来越高,即强者愈强。而所谓的小档期将再也没有翻身的机会,清明档的惨败算是预期之内,更可怕的是,哪怕五天长假的五一档,都已经被边缘化,沦为了三大档期之外的“其他档期”了。

从今年五一档的片单就能看出,如今连五一档都被嫌弃了,处在了鄙视链的末端了,上不了饭桌了,毕竟真正的种子项目根本就不会考虑,其背后正是恶性循环所导致。就真正的好项目、大项目来说,三大档期成为了仅有的选择,也是盈利的保障。

行业也完全根据档期的梯队,对项目进行三六九等的排布,哪些能够上春节档、哪些上暑期档、国庆档,哪些上其他档期,哪些上普通周末,这是一套完整的链条,项目都被明码标价,根本没办法完成阶级跨越,只能处在自己的层级,这形成了一种无形的枷锁。

这种逐步稳固的阶级,其实是今年4月份电影市场不佳的幕后真正原因,换言之,清明档只能匹配这种级别的项目,因为优质项目不愿来,更小的项目进不来,进而导致了清明档低迷的表现。即将到来的五一档,这些项目基本属于中等体量级别,以它们的量级难以进驻春节档,甚至暑期档,最终获得了与之匹配的五一档。

久而久之,档期将形成阶级固化,这不利于档期的概念,优质的大片完全可以来到三大档期以外的节点,具备品质的黑马自然也能挑战三大档期,可游戏规则已经制定,接下来完成阶级挑战和跨越的机会只能越来越少。或许接下来,4月份倒退13年的现象还将持续发生。

风声OPINION|为何催婚政策戳不中年轻人的心?

30 April 2025 at 04:06

如今家庭的功能和形态已经发生了变化,人们不再把家庭的存续视为全部的任务,而是越来越重视婚姻和生育对个人发展的影响了。

2025年4月25日,民政部官方网站公布的《2025年第一季度民政统计报告》显示,今年第一季度全国办理结婚登记的对数为181万,比去年同期有所减少;而离婚登记则达到了63万对,较去年同期有所增加。

与2024年第一季度的196.9万对结婚登记和57.3万对离婚登记相比,今年一季度的结婚登记减少了15.9万对,离婚登记则增加了5.7万对。

登记结婚数据逐渐走低,各级政府的催生(婚)政策越发密集。由多个层级的政府分散地决定出台的促进生育政策,人们通常将它们统称为催生政策。

继这些催生政策之后,各地的催婚政策也在不断出台。年轻人在想什么呢?为什么许多人仍不买账呢?

从“催生”走到“催婚”是必然的

在一定程度上,催婚政策可以看作催生政策的一个组成部分。当然,从催生到催婚,是很自然的一个发展,因为在中国,通常情况下,结婚组成家庭是生育子女的前提。既然开始催生了,也就很难避免再向前走到催婚这一步。

更直接的一个原因可能是,目前的催生政策,大部分都着眼于催生“二孩”或“三孩”(见表1),但是实际上,有不少结婚的夫妇,“一孩”也不愿意生,对于这些人,出台催生政策也不大可能生二孩、三孩。

CDT 档案卡
标题:风声OPINION|为何催婚政策戳不中年轻人的心?
作者:风声OPINION
发表日期:2025.4.29
来源:微信公众号“风声OPINION”
主题归类:结婚率
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

另一方面,国家卫健委的资料显示,自先后实施单独两孩政策、全面两孩政策、三孩政策以来,我国出生人口中二孩及以上占比已经提升到了55%以上。

因此要想催生出更多的孩子,首先要稳住一孩生育这个“基本盘”,即先得保证一孩家庭的数量有所增长或不下降,而一孩家庭数量的增长的前提是有更多人愿意结婚组建家庭。

在这个意义上,从催生走到催婚,或许是一种必然。

表1:2021年以来若干地方政府出台的催生政策 

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注一:本表只是一个不完全统计,而且各地出台的催生政策并不仅限于现金形式发放的生育奖励和育儿补贴,一般都还会在孕期服务、产假、孩子入托入学优待、妇女就业保障等方面规定相应的优惠政策,有的还附带了购房补贴政策。

注二:按月或按年发放育儿补贴的,除了湖北省武汉市东湖高新区补贴到孩子六周岁之外,均只补贴到三周岁。

目前,已经出台催婚政策的地方政府相对来说还比较少(有些是作为催生政策组合的一项政策形式出现的),下面列出了其中的一部分(见表2)。

表2:若干地方政府出台的催婚政策

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除了以经济激励的手法催婚之外,在法律上和思想文化上其实也在助力催婚。例如,2024年8月份公布的《婚姻登记条例(修订草案征求意见稿)》第八条提出,“办理结婚登记的内地居民应当出具下列证件和书面材料:(一)本人的居民身份证;(二)本人无配偶以及与对方当事人没有直系血亲和三代以内旁系血亲关系的签字声明。”这就取消了以往结婚登记需要出具户口本的规定,实际上可能会起到鼓励想结婚的人违背户主意愿(或至少无需取得户主同意)结婚的作用。

又如,国务院办公厅印发的完善生育支持政策的文件,强调要积极构建新型婚育文化大力倡导积极的婚恋观、生育观,并将相关内容融入到中小学、本专科教育中去。

在一定程度上,这基本上就是在说“催婚和催生要从娃娃抓起”了。

“催婚”“催生”思路的背后

地方政府的催生和催婚政策,呈现出了各自为政、碎片化的特点;更重要的是,从政策思路来说,可能仍没有超出就问题解决问题的层面。

不少专家言必称“人口危机”,强调必须扭转少子化、老龄化加剧的局面,认为鼓励生育长期内事关国家繁荣和中华文明传承,短期内有助于扩大内需、稳增长、稳就业。但需要承认的是,当代中国人的生育观念,毕竟在总体上已经转向了少生和优生,而且个人对自我的未来发展的考虑,业已成为制约婚姻和生育的首要因素(这方面尤其突出的是女性的观念的转变)。

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其他影响因素,包括机会成本高、经济负担重、照料子女困难大等等,在很大程度上都是附着在这个因素的基础上发挥作用的。

不要忘记,观念决定行动,如今家庭的功能和形态已经发生了变化,人们不再把家庭的存续视为全部的任务,而越来越重视婚姻和生育对个人发展的影响了。

对于地方政府来说,催婚催生从某个角度来看也许确实是一种有益的投资,长期可能会带来可观回报,并且在短期内就可能见效,但是这仍然只是把“人口”视为一种可以控制和调配的资源。

只要承认结婚和生育是个人决策,不应该受任何力量的强制,那么不把个人的价值实现需要考虑在内的催生和催婚政策,就可能流于就问题解决问题,从而无法具备从整体战略出发解决问题时的政策一致性。

这一点不妨从更原始的家庭形态出发来说明。在这种传统的家庭关系中,丈夫在外面工作并获得收入,妻子则抚育孩子、照顾老人、料理家务。许多经济学家都正确地阐明了,无论是丈夫,还是妻子,他们付出的劳动都是生产性的。

但是关键在于,丈夫由于从外部获得了货币收入,他的劳动实现了显性的价值,而妻子的劳动的价值却无法显性地得到确认。这种差异会带来很大的冲突。古代社会的男女不平等其实是解决这个问题的一个方法(当然不是一个值得赞颂的方法)。

在现代社会中,男女平等了,当夫妻都参加了工作并获得收入时,这个问题有所缓解,但是仍然继续存在,因为家庭内部肯定还有很多无法实现其显性价值的“生产活动”。也正因为如此,爱情、亲情,以及家庭生活中各种有爱的场景,对于个人的价值实现来说是必不可少的,或者说,它们补偿了无法通过市场来实现的价值。

现在许多碎片化的催生和催婚政策,由于通常是从地方发展经济的需要这个角度进行合理性论证的,恰恰会将个人的婚姻和生育决策带入完全以货币数量进行片面市场化计算的情境,从而可能会起到反效果。

也就是说,许多地方政府出台催生政策的动机是拉动经济(特别是房地产),而制定催婚政策的目的则是因为催生政策似乎不怎么见效。这是一种“就问题解决问题”的思路,不是“根据整体战略确定解决问题的方法”的思路。

欧洲、美国等西方国家,以及韩国、日本等东亚国家的历史经验,还有经济学、社会学等领域的理论研究,都已经告诉我们——在实现了现代化的社会中,少子化、老龄化是不可避免的趋势。

这里还有一个问题是,在出现了拐点之后,中国人口下降速度似乎比韩国、日本等国出现拐点后要快,有不少人认为直接原因是中国的结婚率下降得更快,而这又可以作为出台催婚政策的一个理由。

那么近年来中国的结婚率为什么会下降得更快?问题可能出在政策不一致性上面。

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政策矛盾:离婚越来越难

从人口统计数据来看,近几年中国的结婚适龄人群其实并不小,但是结婚率却快速下行。

尽管2010年后新出生人口中男女比例失调严重,但就数据而言,20-34岁的结婚适龄人群中男性人数与女性人数相差并不太大,而且由于男性的法定结婚年龄比女性晚两年,这个差距就更小了。只不过由于男性的内部存在竞争或挤出效应,即很多大龄男性会与少龄妇女婚配(例如,成功中年男人迎娶年小妻子),结婚适龄男女人数的实际差距要比数据显示得大得多。

即便如此,相比于庞大的结婚适龄人口,现在的结婚率也显得低了一些。如表3所示,民政部相关数据显示,自2013年达到最高点以来,结婚率一路下行。2023年有所反弹(原因是前几年新冠疫情期间“被耽误”的新人集中登记结婚),但也只是昙花一现,2024年前三季度出现了更加猛烈的下跌。

表3:2013年以来历年结婚率

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作为对表3中的数据的补充,再来看一下离婚对数。根据民政部的数据,‌离婚对数在2019年达到最高峰的470.1万对之后,也呈现下降趋势:2020年为433.9万对,2021年为283.93万对,‌2022为287.9万对,2023年为259.3万对,2024年前三季度为196.7万对。

离婚率从2021年开始迅速下降,一个很重要的原因可能是“离婚冷静期”制度从2021年1月1日开始实施。根据《‌中华人民共和国民法典》第一千零七十七条的规定,自婚姻登记机关收到离婚登记申请之日起三十日内,任何一方不愿意离婚的,可以向婚姻登记机关撤回离婚登记申请。前款规定期限届满后三十日内,双方应当亲自到婚姻登记机关申请发给‌离婚证;未申请的,视为撤回离婚登记申请。

离婚冷静期制度,在维护婚姻的稳定和下一代的权益等方面均有重要意义,也与国际惯例相符,但是在执行中似乎有所走偏了,实际上导致了离婚难度大幅增大的结果。

事实上,离婚难度的增大,对结婚是有劝退作用的。“婚姻是一座围城,城外的人想冲进去,城里的人想逃出来。”这句话出自钱钟书的代表作《围城》,虽然是小说家言,但是却得到了经济学家的理论证明。

豪尔特(Hauert)等人在《科学》上发表的论文中证明:参与人可以自由选择退出,是合作得以出现和维持的一个条件。婚姻无疑是一项合作事业,如果没有退出“围城”的自由,必定会削弱人们进入“围城”的动力。

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或者至少可以说,如果离婚变得更加困难了,那么人们在考虑要不要结婚时会变得更加谨慎,同时即便结婚了,在考虑要不要孩子时也可能会变得更加谨慎。

从经济学的角度分析,大体上可以认为结婚是个人通过与他人匹配实现合作的决策(而生育则是个人之间合作进行人生最重要的投资之一的决策)。

如果觉得结婚和生育无法帮助实现个人的价值,同时又觉得离婚很难,那么即便有了各种催生、催婚政策,也存在导致均衡结果的风险,即本来可以匹配成功的双方未能实现匹配,因为一方觉得结婚生子就是对自己的惩罚,而另一方则庆幸不结婚似乎也过得下去。

毫无疑问,各地出台的催生、催婚政策,在边际上(即对那些本来已经打算结婚生子,但是有点犹豫的人来说)会有相当不错的效果,但是由于碎片化,再加上存在政策不一致性,也有可能效果不佳,甚至适得其反。

The M.T.A. Gets $68 Billion in the State Budget. What Will Riders Get?

30 April 2025 at 05:01
New York State has agreed to fully fund the transit authority’s five-year capital plan. Threats from the federal government could still lead to a shortfall.

© Jeenah Moon for The New York Times

Though the Metropolitan Transportation Authority had its biggest ever capital budget proposal approved as part of budget negotiations in Albany, uncertainty surrounding the agency’s funding remains.

Mosque Killing Puts French View of Muslims Under Scrutiny

30 April 2025 at 01:56
The victim was stabbed dozens of times last Friday while he was praying, and critics say officials were slow to call it a bias crime or show concern.

© Miguel Medina/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A march on Sunday in memory of Aboubakar Cissé, who was killed in a mosque on Friday in La Grand-Combe, France.

SEIU Local 721 Workers Go on Strike in Los Angeles

30 April 2025 at 04:44
The nation’s most populous county was already juggling legal liabilities, wildfire costs and threats to federal funding. Now its largest union is holding a 48-hour strike.

© Jaimie Ding/Associated Press

Los Angeles County workers picketing outside of the Los Angeles General Medical Center on Monday.
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