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Today — 11 May 2025News

南风窗|被同一个老师性骚扰的女孩们

11 May 2025 at 00:01

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2023年10月,19岁的Yuki被卷入一场与性骚扰相关的舆论风暴。作为施害者出现的,是她的高中语文老师陈勇。

事情起于她参与的一个性骚扰相关调研。Yuki写下自己的遭遇,并上传到QQ空间相册里。于她而言,这只是一次普通的记录。可到了当晚,Yuki看到这条动态的浏览量比平时多出不少。第二天,陆续有人来私聊她。还有人从别处看到了截图,他们问,这件事是真的吗?你认识那个女生吗?“我说我认识,就是我。”

这次风暴很快平息,但在2024年7月底,28岁的Nicole发帖讲述了自己在18岁时被性骚扰的遭遇。通过文章里的关键词,人们意识到,其中提到的高中语文老师,与性骚扰Yuki的是同一个人。

CDT 档案卡
标题:南风窗|被同一个老师性骚扰的女孩们
作者:南风窗
发表日期:2025.5.10
来源:腾讯新闻“南风窗”
主题归类:性骚扰
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

这篇文章揭开了一起高中教师性骚扰、涉嫌猥亵学生的案件。在Nicole之后,相继有近十个当事人,站出来指认这位语文老师。案件跨越了两所学校,以及十余年的时间。

她们遭遇性骚扰时还未成年,但伤害却一直延续至今。在事件受到公众关注前,她们独自面对这段过往,却不知道仍然有高中生,在和她们差不多的年纪受到伤害。

这一次,她们决定主动站出来。对于尚未成年或刚刚成年的女孩们来说,这是一次成长中的动荡,这场迟到的维权,也终将给她们带去回馈。

01

孤立无援

被传播开来的截图,记录着Yuki遭遇性骚扰的详细经过。那时她18岁,是成都市实验外国语学校西区的高三学生。

事情发生在2022年4月13日晚上,她原本在校外的补习班上晚自习。她的高中语文老师给她发来一个餐厅定位,邀请她吃晚饭。她坐在了老师旁边,看到老师对面还坐着一个姐姐,他介绍说,这是一位“故人”,称呼她为“九月”。吃饭过程中,老师先是多次把手搭上Yuki的肩膀,顺势擦过她的胸部。Yuki有些尴尬,假装没感受到,坐在对面的九月也没有什么特别的反应,而老师的行为逐渐明目张胆。他在饭桌下牵住Yuki的手,好几次摸她的胸,把她搂进自己怀里。

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事发当晚,Yuki向朋友讲述被陈勇性骚扰/受访者供图

Yuki没有直接写出对方的名字,但提到男性的“高中语文老师”,指向的只有陈勇。

她能察觉到自己没有取得太多信任。她发在朋友圈里的相关信息,很多同班同学都不会点赞或转发。后来一个学妹告诉她,当时有人在学校的表白墙上分析Yuki平时的“生活作风”,也质疑她,为什么过了这么久才提起这件事。

这并不奇怪。在成都市实验外国语学校西区(以下简称为“实外西区”),陈勇一直是个受到众多学生、同事喜欢的老师。

在Yuki的印象里,陈勇似乎对所有学生都很好。他常常给学生送书,Yuki就收到过三四本。他们每周都要写周记,高中学习压力大,Yuki就会在周记里写下自己的不开心,陈勇每次都给她批注很多评语,内容大多是鼓励和关心,“所有人好像都在push你去看你的成绩,但是这个老师只会希望你健康快乐地成长”。

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陈勇批注的评语:今天是一个很温暖的日子,恰巧是5·21,你记住此生爱世界的前提是爱自己!/受访者供图

陈勇也经常提起自己在上一个学校任职的往事。Yuki记得,他在课上告诉学生,自己之前在石河子市第二中学(以下简称为“石河子二中”)教书,是实外西区的校长花重金把他聘过来。过去那些和他关系很好的学生,被他称为“弟子”或“丫鬟”。在陈勇的微博里,也有很多他和学生的合照,还有学生给他写的信和诗。

在石河子二中,其他老师和同学都叫他“才子”,这个称号也延续到了实外西区。Yuki记得,陈勇不喜欢别人叫他“陈老师”。

让Yuki印象最深刻的,还是学生们写给才子的文字。他们谈到自己对陈勇的感情,谈到陈勇给自己带来了多么大的影响。Yuki能看出其中真诚的“景仰”。

所有这些,组成了她记忆里的陈勇,一个可以用“美好”来形容的语文老师,而这种美好在性骚扰发生的当天破灭了。

18岁的Yuki不知道要如何理解陈勇的行为。那天晚上,她在线上问陈勇为什么要这么做,只得到了模棱两可的回答。后来她选择了回避,假装什么都没发生,最后,她拉黑、删除了陈勇的所有联系方式。

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事发当晚,Yuki在线上质问陈勇/受访者供图

她想要欺骗自己,但是陈勇在她耳边说的话,她始终绕不过去,“非常直白,我又听得超级清楚,要是离我远一点,我还说听错了”。

到了2023年,19岁的Yuki仍然没有真正鼓起勇气。当时,她似乎是陈勇性骚扰行为的唯一受害者。她甚至觉得,陈勇对其他学生都很好,“可能是他(对我)没有把握好分寸,他当天真的是喝多了一点点”。

在这场风暴中,Yuki孤立无援。舆论逐渐平息后的两三个月,她都处在痛苦之中。她有很多天没去上课,但也不知道干什么,只能在宿舍或是咖啡厅里“待着”。“每天都感觉自己活得很不真实,这个世界很陌生,有点灰蒙蒙的。”

Yuki不知道的是,有一个女生坚定地相信她。她是比Yuki小一届的学妹,而陈勇是她所在班级的语文老师,她也正在忍受陈勇的性骚扰。

大概在2022年下半年,16岁的晴枫就意识到,陈勇可能是在对自己进行性骚扰。

那时陈勇常常给她发微信,问她在干什么、去了哪里、和谁在一起,作为他的学生,晴枫都听话地一一回答。后来,陈勇的信息开始越界,一放假,他就会要求晴枫给他发自拍,还让她“把头发散下来”“夜跑到汗流浃背的时候拍下来”。周五放学的时候,他常常要求晴枫和他自拍合照。晴枫不喜欢拍照,总是找机会逃走,陈勇就在学校里偷拍了她的很多照片,然后私下发给她,说她长得真好看。

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陈勇在聊天中的言语骚扰/受访者供图

每次收到这些消息,晴枫都很不安,不知道该怎么回复。

晴枫记得,2023年10月,几乎整个学校都知道了Yuki的事。起初看到Yuki的文章,晴枫有些震惊,但仔细一想,“确实像是他(陈勇)会干出来的事”。

Yuki和晴枫还不知道她们将会认识彼此。Yuki努力地从那次风暴的后遗症中走了出来,晴枫则在被骚扰的过程中不断忍耐。直到2024年7月底,一篇公开帖文再次引发了风暴,发帖者Nicole曾是石河子二中的学生,她在文章里写到,2014年,她18岁时,曾受到石河子二中一名语文老师的性骚扰。

而这位语文老师,被大家称为“才子”。

这篇帖文像一根线,把散落在数十年间、分布在各个地区的受害者们联系起来。她们不再是孤立无援。

02

找到彼此

Nicole的发帖是一个偶然。那天她看到一个视频,视频作者讲述了自己童年被亲戚性侵的遭遇,评论区里,有很多相似经历的留言。这些分享,让Nicole联想到自己。

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Nicole发帖讲述被性骚扰经历/受访者供图

性骚扰发生在2014年,Nicole高中毕业的暑假。她记得,那年陈勇30岁上下。事情发生那天,Nicole偶然被同学邀请,去陈勇家里吃饭。饭后,同学们在客厅里聊天,陈勇突然叫Nicole去他的房间。Nicole去了,但只是站在门口,陈勇坐在床上,问她“是不是处女”,还说自己“最讨厌处女了”。Nicole很惊讶,就在她还没反应过来的时候,陈勇走过来抱了她,还亲了她的脸和嘴。

18岁的Nicole同样产生过自我怀疑,但28岁的Nicole早已明白这件事并非自己的错。Nicole想,也许讲出自己的遭遇,能让更多人警醒。

这一次,帖子传播到了更远的地方,也因此带来更多回响。来自石河子二中和实外西区的受害者们,在这里找到彼此,并且获得彼此的支撑。

Yuki和很多高中同学一样,立刻认出文章里的“才子”就是陈勇。她联系上Nicole,作为同样曾身陷风波的人,Yuki觉得,自己也许能够帮上一点忙。

麻烦确实很快就来了。公安机关找到了Nicole,要通电话向她了解情况。可好几个电话打来,她都不敢接。后来,Nicole一边通话,一边给Yuki发消息,Yuki把消息转发给一个学法律的朋友,询问朋友应该如何作答,再把回答转发回去,就这样聊了一个多小时。

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2024年8月,事件曝光后警察找Yuki了解情况/受访者供图

三个人分担了紧张。“她(Nicole)没有给我们发消息的时候,我们也在想警察在说什么,还有什么要注意的。”Yuki说。

事情没有止于性骚扰的曝光。2024年8月1日,公安机关也联系到Yuki,到她家里做了笔录。警察告诉她,这件事涉及未成年人被性骚扰,他们必须强制介入,开展调查。Yuki和Nicole因此决定,两人分别与西北、成都的当事人联系,把收集到的更多证据提交给警察。

帖子发出后的每一天,Nicole都能收到新的线索。有的网友告诉她,自己就曾被陈勇性骚扰,有人则提供疑似受害者的线索,一共“起码得有十几二十个(人)”。

晴枫也是主动联系她们的当事人之一。过去她不敢报案,因为陈勇是她的老师,连她家的门牌号都知道,她担心被报复。但Nicole的帖子和其他受害者的评论让她意识到,十几年来,陈勇的性骚扰行为可能从来没有停止过。2024年8月,陈勇主动从学校辞职,晴枫彻底没有了顾虑,没过几天,她就和Yuki一起去报了案。

站出来用法律手段维权,需要更大的勇气。和当事人们交流,Yuki发现她们有很多担忧。她们担心自己的信息被身边人识别出来,会特别强调要把陈勇给她们的称呼、相关关键词抹掉。整理案情自述的时候,Yuki提到警察可能会联系她们做笔录,她们也很害怕接到警察的电话。

不少人在犹豫中选择了拒绝。有一个人私信了Yuki,但是说自己还想再考虑一下,之后就再也没有回复她的消息。Nicole也屡屡碰壁,有一些人向她倾诉类似经历,可不愿出来作证;还有一两个同学给Nicole发来陈勇的骚扰信息,“但也是觉得现在比较忙,(或者)结婚了,以各种理由拒绝我了”。

她们也会听到反对的声音。Nicole记得,高中时陈勇和一个女生走得很近,在任何场合他都会带着这个女生出现,她猜测这名女生可能也被陈勇性骚扰,但女生听了Nicole的话之后非常生气,她说,陈勇是她“生命里的一束光”,还说Nicole做这样的事,以后会遭报应。

最后,一共有9个当事人愿意提供自己的材料。她们有了一个小群,名叫“正义取胜”。

其中两个2022届的学姐让晴枫印象深刻。陈勇的性骚扰曝光后,她们嘴上说着很忙,不想和陈勇有太多交集,希望这件事“过了就算了”,之后还是发来了详细的自述和大量证据,包括陈勇给她们的信、礼物,还有一些亲密的语音信息。

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陈勇发的红包记录截图/受访者供图

“每个来联系我们的人,都很可能说出一些让我们更加震惊的事情。”和其他当事人交流,让Yuki反复感到愤怒和痛苦。

在这种愤怒的推动下,她很快投入整理证据材料的过程。那几天,Yuki天天一个人待在家里,除了吃外卖都在面对电脑屏幕。她从自己做过的那次笔录里,学到了警察提问的方式,会补充问当事人更多详细的问题。学法律的朋友也一直给她提建议:自述里要附上身份证号、手写签名,还要补充一句“本人承诺以上全部内容属实,明确该举报内容可能带来的法律后果,愿意承担相应法律责任”。

事实上,这已经不是Yuki第一次“追求正义”了。在2022年4月事件发生时,在2023年10月风波兴起时,她都曾有可能得到属于自己的“正义”。

但她两次与“正义”错过。2022年4月,Yuki被性骚扰的第二天,她就把这件事告诉了一个朋友,对方很生气,坚持打了12345,投诉到市长热线,但因为当时Yuki不愿出面,后来也没有新的进展。

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2023年10月,Yuki的经历曝光后,实外西区的副校长、年级主任和一位英语女老师找到了Yuki大学的校门口。他们说学校非常重视这件事,一定会仔细调查,在两周内给她答复,但后来也没了消息。Yuki鼓起勇气去问了当时在场的女老师,老师告诉她,学校已经在大会上公开批评过陈勇,还取消了他的相关奖金和评优评先资格。

她之后没有再追问这件事的书面处理结果。而晴枫告诉南风窗,2023年那次风波的最后,校方在学生面前给陈勇做了澄清。那是一个晚自习,晴枫的班里突然来了七八个校领导。他们告诉学生,最近有一些关于陈勇的谣言,都是完全没有的事,让学生们不要相信、不要担心。

而到了2024年,因为找到了彼此,事情似乎有了实质的推进。8月7日,Yuki和朋友把她整理了整整7天的自述和证据,交给了公安局。那份材料很厚,Yuki还记得,有100多页。

03

噩梦与好梦

报案以来,晴枫常常做噩梦。

在梦里,陈勇回来了。有时候他们在上课,陈勇突然就出现在教室门口;有的梦里,他喊晴枫的名字,晴枫一抬头就看到他站在面前;还有一些梦里,晴枫看见他从学校门口走进来,或是从教室门口经过。

“吓得要死,但是醒来发现是梦,就万幸。”晴枫说,陈勇在她梦里出现了不下20次。而Yuki告诉南风窗:“(梦见陈勇),那是我们大家都会做的梦。”

报案给晴枫带去不小的压力。在补习班,她遇到一个男老师和陈勇长得很像,“有点应激”。她更担心自己的身份被学校发现。最初的一周里,她根本无法集中注意力听课,每天晚上都会失眠。晚自习上,她写着写着作业就会开始怀疑自己,是不是做了很冲动的决定?接下来应该怎么办?学校可能会约谈自己,甚至是处分、开除,她把最坏的结果都想了一遍。

2024年9月16日,终于收到了Yuki和晴枫的行政立案告知书。

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立案告知书/受访者供图

警察告诉她们,会在两个月内有结果。而在一个确定的结果真正到来前,她们的生活在漫长的等待与调查中被不断消磨。

作为高三学生,晴枫往往只能抽出周末的时间。她一直没有把自己的遭遇和维权的事告诉父母,如果要去派出所,她只能以周日下午返校为借口,早一点出门。实际上,她要坐一个多小时的车去派出所做笔录,然后再赶回学校。与此同时,她还得兼顾上午的补课和晚上在学校的考试,“一整天的行程非常地累”。

晴枫曾努力为自己找证人。她写了一篇短文发给同学,希望能让他们知道自己已经做了很多努力,而现在离成功只有一步之遥。只要对方还没告诉家长,还有一点点动摇,晴枫都会一直努力说服。花了两周时间,她终于找到两个女生和一个男生,带他们去派出所做了笔录。

晴枫后来追问对接的警察结果如何,对方没有明确的答复。

2024年10月,陈勇的一则朋友圈让Yuki愤怒。事情曝光以来,Yuki时不时就会从别人那里看到陈勇的消息,大多是说当事人们在造谣,说自己很委屈、看错了人。而那天,他的朋友圈是在怀念一个“小丫鬟”——这个女生之前因为意外去世,Yuki记得,陈勇常常在课上提到他们关系很好。在朋友圈里,陈勇写道:“小丫鬟……我很想你,可是你不晓得的是,我喊你‘小丫鬟’也会被拿来说。”

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陈勇朋友圈截图/受访者供图

可Yuki知道事实并不是这样。陈勇的性骚扰行为曝光之后,女生的两个朋友找到了Yuki,她们说,女生以前跟她们讲过很多自己被陈勇性骚扰的事,还说自己很害怕。

那天Yuki原本在和父母逛街,陈勇的朋友圈帖子打乱了计划。在父母面前,Yuki因为生气脸涨得通红,不想逛街、也吃不下饭,直接蹲在一边开始用手机打字,“有点不受控制”。在此之前,她和代理律师也有商量过写一篇文章,把此前整理的信息在网上公开发布,可是担心风险,还没有商定确切的时间。而当时看到陈勇的朋友圈,她一天就把文章写了出来,发到了几个社交平台上。

“因为我那天就是很生气,非常生气,我就是忍不了了,我不能等了。”

2024年11月,Yuki又在其他平台公开发文,警察也对接了案件里的其他当事人,去了西北、上海、北京,给更多的当事人做了笔录。

也是在11月,警方通过陈勇,联系到了2022年4月案发当晚,和Yuki、陈勇同桌吃饭的另一个女生九月。代理律师陈思琪告诉南风窗,九月的证言与Yuki的陈述基本吻合,甚至提供了更多猥亵细节。因此,公安初步确认了陈勇对Yuki的性骚扰、猥亵事实。

警方的积极行动,总能给当事人们带去新的希望。每到这种时候,Yuki都会开心地和群里的其他当事人分享进展,原本沉默的群会短暂地活跃起来。她们开玩笑似的讨论,要是陈勇进监狱了,要不要去看他,怎么去看他,“每次他们(警方)一说这种事情,我就会想很多”。

等待结果成了她们之间的纽带。晴枫返校前的那个周日下午,Yuki常常会跟她说,希望她下周回家拿到手机的时候,就能看到陈勇被关进监狱的消息。

这是她们共享的好梦。

04

坚持的回馈

距离立案过去了约3个月,2024年12月20日,公安机关对陈勇骚扰他人案,涉及Yuki部分做出了终止案件调查的决定,理由是违法行为已过追究时效。

距离立案过去了约4个月,2025年1月22日,警方对陈勇骚扰他人案,涉及晴枫部分做出了不予行政处罚的决定,理由是现有证据不足以认定违法事实的成立。

晴枫还记得自己收到结果的时刻。她把手机偷偷带进了学校,晚上躲在寝室的厕所里看消息。警察先是让她去公安局签字,签字后再说结果。又隔了好久,警察才给她发了不予处罚的决定书。

img

晴枫和Yuki收到的不予行政处罚决定书和终止案件调查决定/受访者供图

她看着警察的消息,发了很久的呆,最后只是回了一句:“好,我知道了。”

这是晴枫预想中最坏的结果之一。在不予行政处罚决定书里,警方单独摘出了一句晴枫曾发给陈勇的话:“想你了才子。”在代理律师、上海海华永泰(成都)律师事务所律师陈思琪看来,警方也许认为这是晴枫对陈勇的回应,进而证明,他们之间的聊天是“有来有回”的。

警方也曾向晴枫问起这句“回应”。她解释,快要放假前,陈勇会不断地在课堂上提醒同学们要去想他,他也会私底下跟晴枫说类似的话。晴枫知道,如果自己发了这句话,就可以让陈勇“消停点”。比起承担拒绝带来的后果,她能做的是尽量减少陈勇对自己的骚扰。

晴枫不是没有尝试过拒绝。有一次,晴枫实在受不了了,把陈勇设置成了免打扰,整个周末都没有回复他的消息。到了周日返校的时候,陈勇就把晴枫叫到办公室,问她为什么不回消息,还拿戒尺打她的手。还有一回,大约是2024年1月中旬,晴枫坐在教室最后一排复习,陈勇从她背后绕到桌前,很快地用手背蹭了下她的脸,然后就走了,晴枫根本没有反应过来。

“他可能停顿了两秒钟,当时我花了一秒钟来反应放在我脸上的是什么东西,再花一秒钟去反应他为什么要这么做。他走了之后,我才意识到我刚刚经历了什么。”而这时候,晴枫已经来不及再做出什么行动,去表示拒绝。此后,类似的行为陈勇又做过两次。

上海汉盛律师事务所律师刘颖告诉南风窗,在很多性犯罪案件中,极少有受害者在行为人实施犯罪行为的时候强烈反抗,大多数受害者的态度倾向于沉默、甚至是无意识地同意。受害者的这种反应背后,可能存在很多考量:比如对方与自己的社会地位差别、对方对自己切身的权益的影响、对方是否会过激作出人身伤害行为等等。

“这些都是可以理解的,但确实会造成事后难以认定受害人是否同意,或行为人是否‘强制’的原因。”刘颖说。

事实上,她们在最初就已经知道困难的存在,却还是一步一步坚持了下来。对她们而言,坚持本身就是一种意义。

图片几位受害人向教育局实名举报/受访者供图

Yuki的父母也曾劝她放弃。那一次,Yuki因为看到陈勇的朋友圈帖子气得吃不下饭,原本支持她维权的父母,也觉得她的情绪有些异常。他们劝她,事情过去了,还是要向前看才好。

“(可是)我觉得就没有办法向前看了,既然我知道有这么多事情已经发生了,我不能视而不见向前看了。”自从知道自己并非唯一的受害者,Yuki就已经无法再后悔。

至少,她们最基础的诉求已经实现——陈勇被吊销了教师资格证,这意味着,不会再有更多学生成为他性骚扰的受害者。

在半年多的维权之后,长期跟进案件进展的Yuki和晴枫都意识到自己变了,变得更加勇敢、更加坚定。

晴枫感受到自己的成长。第一次去公安局立案的时候,Yuki、律师还有她的朋友都陪着她,她依旧特别害怕。Yuki能看出来她当时有些发怵,还有点发抖。后来,晴枫带自己找到的证人去公安局时,似乎充当起了过去Yuki的角色,她会提前告诉同学警察会问什么问题,安慰他们不要紧张和担心。

而Yuki也有了更多信心。因为她终于发现,自己的坚持并不孤单。

她找到了一个网络,在其中人们坚持着某种“理想”,同时彼此支持。每次Yuki公开发文,都会有很多人给她打电话要求删帖,在持续大约一周的时间里,她常常很害怕,不敢接电话。有一次,她把来电显示截图发给代理律师,代理律师找了另外几个社工朋友一起,开了一个线上会议室陪她。会议室里,大家聊聊案件的情况,有时候并不说话,Yuki也会感到很安心。

她意识到,理解别人的痛苦也是一种能力,“我相信(共情)这个东西是有力量的”。

力量传递到她手中,Yuki也变得勇敢。有一次,电话那头要求删帖的人说,她们以后结婚的时候,想到这件事会觉得很后悔,Yuki听了很生气:“难道这是什么很羞耻的事吗?我们是不应该发声吗?我们要自己忍着吗?”说完她就挂了电话。

而曾经的伤疤,还需要更长的时间才能愈合。晴枫依旧会做噩梦,陈勇还是会在某天突然出现在她的梦里。如今回想起2022年4月的那一天,Yuki还是会心跳加速,有点喘不上气。

Yuki还有至今也无法面对的事。作为语文老师,陈勇曾经给她的高中三年留下了美好记忆,她的笔记里还记着很多他教给学生的诗,周记本上还有他的评语。而现在,这些东西似乎都不复存在了。Yuki不愿仔细去想,陈勇就是用这些文字在关心她,获得她的信任,又用所谓的文人潇洒去伤害她、控制她。“也许我真的需要去相信,所谓文学也是一种巧言令色。”

img

Yuki的手机里还存着陈勇留在周记本上的评语/受访者供图

她手机里还留着周记本的照片,她也曾想过要把本子翻出来看看,即使她不知道,自己应该对它做点什么。

可是,周记本找不到了。它和那些Yuki不愿看到的照片一样,藏到了更深的地方。

Yuki知道,总有一天,她必须把它们都翻找出来,“彻底地、非常舒坦地去面对”。

Remarrying in Retirement Can Mean Tricky Money Talks

10 May 2025 at 17:00
People over 65 who remarry after a death or divorce can face thorny financial questions — especially when it comes to adult children and inheritances.

© Benjamin Cleeton for The New York Times

Elaina Clapper had been divorced for about 40 years when she remarried, to her husband David. “We just kind of talked about what we were both bringing to the marriage financially,” she said.

A股女性董监高,五年增长超四成!

女性不仅塑造了个体生命的丰富维度,更以独特的方式推动着社会发展与科技进步。

南方周末科创力研究中心

责任编辑:黄金萍

又到母亲节。

女性,既是家庭温暖的守护者,又是职场创新的推动者。家庭与职场的双重历练,赋予女性独特的复合型能力。她们不仅塑造了个体生命的丰富维度,更以独特的方式推动着社会发展与科技进步。

基于东方财富Choice数据,结合南

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校对:赵立宇

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

“行人相撞案”现场视频公布 法院道歉:表述不当造成误导

10 May 2025 at 21:09

央视新闻

近日,山东省青岛市李沧区人民法院发布的“两行人相撞案”普法案例引发争议,央视《法治在线》联系到青岛市李沧区人民法院,法院回应,关于“安全距离”,表述存在使用不恰当的问题。法院还提供了事发现场公共场所视频,并详细介绍案发情节。

青岛市李沧区人民法院审判委员会专职委员郭栋介绍,这个普法案例源自法院调解结案的一起真实案例。事发时间是2023年5月19日,原告为女性,碰撞事故发生时59岁,被告也是一名女性,事发时29岁。事发当时,原告在道路上行走,其间放慢脚步接电话,后停下缓慢转身站住,被告当时从后面左右张望快步前行,并未注意前方情况,将原告撞倒,导致原告右股骨胫创伤性骨折。后经司法鉴定,构成十级伤残。

真实案情与普法案例介绍的案情、网传的案情存在较大出入。

  • 第一,网撞人的是男性,实际上是女性,在发布的普法视频和文字中,法官只是用刘某和王某指代,并未体现二人性别。
  • 第二,普法案例中提到原告“突然转身往回走”与事实不符,实际上,从现场监控视频看,原告并没有“突然转身往回走”,只是缓慢转身站住,此时原被告之间尚有一定距离。
  • 第三,普法案例中提到被告“存在未保持安全距离的过错”,表述不当。真实案情中,被告从后面左右张望、快步前行,存在未注意前方情况的问题。

2023年9月17日,原告向法院提起民事赔偿诉讼,原被告双方均聘请了律师进行代理。后办案法官组织双方进行了证据交换,共同查看了调取的监控视频,双方共同商定对此事协商解决。此后,办案法官多次与双方沟通调解方案,被告同意赔偿原告70000元,采用分期付款方式支付,原告同意该调解意见和支付方式。

2024年6月27日,双方到法院签署了调解协议,法院于次日出具了民事调解书。签署调解协议后,被告2024年7月28日向原告支付了第一笔赔偿款1万元,并自2024年8月起于每月28日前均按时向原告支付6000元,目前只剩一期余款6000元因没到时间尚未支付。双方在履行调解书过程中未发生争议。

对于网传案情与真实案情存在出入的问题,青岛市李沧区人民法院审判委员会专职委员郭栋介绍,对于法院此次普法过程中因法官描述事实不准确、表述不当,给广大网民造成误导的问题,在此诚恳地道歉。

下一步,法院将认真吸取此次案例普法中的教训,进一步规范案例普法工作,提高普法宣传质量,以更高标准、更严要求落实“谁执法谁普法”责任制。请广大网民继续关心和监督法院的工作。

网络编辑:澍生

寻找广州塔

(本文首发于南方人物周刊)

陈冲 南方人物周刊记者 聂阳欣

责任编辑:郑洁 方迎忠

广州动物园,飞跃的猴子(陈冲/图)

2015年,陈冲开始拍摄广州。在中国城市现代化建设中,有一条最简单的游戏规则——追逐高度。站在高点,就能看到这座城市逐渐更新的样貌。他经常爬几十层楼梯去寻找一个拍摄的点位。最高的一次,他用了近一个小时,爬上了尚未竣工的东塔的九十多层。

珠江新城,夜晚加班的写字楼(陈冲/图)

拍摄高楼的时候,广州塔总会有意无意地被拍进照片。它实在太高了,600米,是广州最高的建筑,北面一百多米是珠江,再往北是海心沙亚运公园,南面是广州塔公园,

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校对:赵立宇

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。
Yesterday — 10 May 2025News

Labour to unveil big immigration plans next week - but will they win back votes?

10 May 2025 at 21:36
BBC Two treated images of a large border force ship and on the bottom, border force workersBBC

"A failed free market experiment" – that's how the home secretary will describe the approach that's seen vast numbers of people from around the world come to the UK to pour pints in pubs, to cut hair, to care for the most vulnerable, to pick fruit, or to fix our plumbing.

Yvette Cooper's getting ready to unveil the government's overhaul of the rules that determine who can come to the UK with permission, and for how long.

Her White Paper, which will be called "Restoring Control Over the Immigration System" and be 69 pages long, is a big moment for Labour to try to sort a messy system, under which the numbers of people moving here rose way over most people's imagination.

With Reform hard on Labour's heels, capitalising on public concern about immigration, the success or failure of Cooper is vital to the government.

So what has Labour come up with?

It will emerge in full on Monday, but we know a lot about what's on the table.

It's expected that work visas will be strictly time-limited for jobs that don't need graduate-level skills.

Foreign students who have studied for degrees here could lose the right to stay in the UK after they finish at university.

Overseas workers will be expected to have a better understanding of English, but reported suggestions of A-level equivalent are wide of the mark.

And companies who repeatedly can't show efforts to recruit UK-based staff, rather than hunt abroad, might lose their right to sponsor foreign workers to come here at all.

EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock British Secretary of State for the Home Department Yvette Cooper delivers a speech during the Border Security Summit in LondonEPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

There are also likely to be proposals designed to change how judges apply what's known as Article 8 of the Human Rights Act. It is designed to protect everyone's right to a family life.

But how it's used sometimes by immigration lawyers to stop deportations has long been a concern of politicians – in 2011, I even remember Theresa May claiming an asylum seeker had been allowed to stay in the UK because of their cat.

More than a decade later, recent cases like this one raised at Prime Minister's Questions have led the government to review how the courts have been interpreting everyone's right to a family life. We'll hear more of the details from the home secretary in the studio tomorrow, and likely from the prime minister on Monday.

Some Conservatives and Reform argue the only way of making a material difference is to leave the European Convention on Human Rights altogether, rather than see ministers stick their nose into the courts. Whether the government's proposals here make a difference, we'll have to see.

But the big principle in Cooper's thinking is that the immigration system should be fundamentally linked to the labour market – helping British workers get the skills to fill vacancies, rather than overseas workers being brought in again and again, to plug the gaps.

EPA-EFE/Shutterstock British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) leaders' summit EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

The Whitehall wiring will be redirected to try to make that happen with a new approach under a 'quad' – where employers, the Department for Work and Pensions, the job centres, skills bodies, and the Migration Advisory Committee, that sets the specific rules, all work together.

The idea, to wean the economy off relying on staff from overseas, by pushing employers to work much harder to find staff from here at home.

That's the theory. Here are the politics: for years, conventional thinking in both main parties was the immigration was broadly good because it helped the economy. Politicians and members of the public who raised concern about the pace and scale of workers coming were sometimes dismissed.

One Cabinet minister says last time Labour was in power, when "people raised concerns, it was too easy to say it's a race question – there's a good understanding now that good, decent people worry about immigration – it's about fairness".

When it emerged that 900,000 people came to the UK in 2023 the prime minister held an emergency press conference accusing the Tories of a failed "open border experiment"'.

A senior government source says now the previous government wasn't "bringing in 100,000 scientists to live in central London, it was bringing in people to fix problems of the economy everywhere, often in poor communities".

Ministers accept there might always be a need for overseas staff with specific expertise to come to the UK. But Sir Keir Starmer's allies say he's been making the case for years, since a speech to the CBI in 2022, warning employers they wouldn't be able to rely on cheap foreign labour on his watch.

Since then, partly down to the Conservatives' tightening up of visa rules before they left office, the numbers of people coming to the UK legally has dropped a lot and is expected to fall further this year. But the political prominence of the issue overall has gone the other way.

By some polling measures in spring this year immigration and small boats passed the NHS as the biggest worry for voters in 2025.

If the numbers of workers coming is falling, why is the public more concerned?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C-L) hosts a round table at the Border Security Summit at Lancaster House

Sources inside government acknowledge that for many of the public, the issues of legal and illegal migration are bundled together.

While legal migration has been falling, the numbers of those coming in ways considered illegal and trying to claim asylum has gone the other way, hitting the highest level since 1979.

And there are two highly visible signs of that – small boat crossings, and asylum seekers being housed in hotels around the country.

One member of the government told me, "it's the boats, and everything is amplified on social media, we know it's having an effect as it's fed back to us on the doorstep – as a party we just seem to be floundering".

The use of hotels isn't just costly – projected recently to be £15bn, triple the amount the Conservatives reckoned when they signed the contracts back in 2019 – they can also create unease and resentment in communities.

A Labour MP with an asylum hotel in their constituency tells me a big part of the problem is that constituents link spending on hotels with the government squeezing cash elsewhere.

"It is impossible to make the case we need to do some form of austerity while we are spending so much money on putting people up here – whether it's winter fuel and PIP (welfare payments) – you haven't got money for this, but you have money for that."

PA Media A UK Border signPA Media

There's even a belief in Downing Street that had there not been an asylum hotel in Runcorn, Labour would likely have held on to its seat in the by election last week.

The other blindingly obvious reason immigration has become so fraught politically is that for decades, successive governments have told the public one thing but done another. Under Tony Blair, people from countries joining the EU were allowed immediately to come and work in the UK.

The government had publicly estimated the numbers likely to move would be around 13,000, but hundreds of thousands of people from Eastern Europe made the UK their home in the following years. Papers released at the end of last year reveal that some of Blair's team worried precisely about that happening.

David Cameron then promised repeatedly that he'd get the number of extra people settling in the UK under 100,000. That vow was repeatedly broken. His government's lack of ability to control migration from Europe was at the core of the Brexit argument.

With deep irony, Boris Johnson won that argument in the referendum, then set up an immigration system that allowed even more people to move to the UK, peaking at 900,000 in 2023. Rishi Sunak then promised to "Stop the Boats" - but they still came.

A No 10 insider says the "public has been gaslit for years – taxpayers have been told it's happening, but nothing has been changing".

It's Cooper and Sir Keir who are now under huge pressure to get the numbers down and keep their vow to "smash the gangs".

The plans for managing legal migration better on Monday will be followed by a meeting in Albania later in the week, where the focus will be on cracking the illegal trade that smuggles people across Europe.

Ministers hope their plans will make a difference, although screeds of extra immigration law have not exactly improved the situation in recent years.

Making a complex system that doesn't work even more complicated will not necessarily be a success. But in government there's no doubt how vital it is– not just to fix a system that's been failing, but to demonstrate to voters that something is being done.

The plans we'll talk about in the next couple of days have been long in the making. But Reform's massive success at the ballot box shows why Labour has to get this right.

As one member of the government reckons, the public "got rid of the Tories by voting for us, there was no love for Labour, and they are prepared to do the same to us".

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Taylor Swift criticises court summons in Lively-Baldoni row

10 May 2025 at 19:47
Getty Images Taylor Swift, wearing a green velvet dress, walks with Blake Lively, wearing a black, red and orange jumper, at night in New York City in 2023.Getty Images
Taylor Swift and Blake Lively, seen here in 2023, have been close friends for many years

Taylor Swift's representatives have told the BBC she is being brought into a legal row between Justin Baldoni and Blake Lively to create "tabloid clickbait".

The 35-year-old singer was summoned to a US court after it was alleged she encouraged Baldoni to accept script re-writes by Lively for It Ends With Us, a film that both starred in and is the centre of a sexual harassment case.

Baldoni says he was invited to Lively's New York home in 2023 to discuss script changes, where Lively's husband, Ryan Reynolds, and Swift were there to serve as her "dragons".

Representatives for Swift said "she was not involved in any casting or creative decision" and "never saw an edit or made any notes on the film".

Lively, 37, sued Baldoni, 41, in December 2024, accusing him of sexual harassment and a smear campaign. Baldoni is counter-suing Lively and her husband, the actor Ryan Reynolds, on claims of civil extortion, defamation and invasion of privacy.

Lively and Baldoni have been locked in a dispute since the film, which is an adaption of a Colleen Hoover novel, was released last summer.

According to Baldoni, there were tensions over the 2023 re-write of the scene, at which he was surprised to find Reynolds and Swift present.

He alleges Lively wrote in a text to him: "If you ever get around to watching Game of Thrones, you'll appreciate that I'm Khaleesi, and like her, I happen to have a few dragons. For better or worse, but usually better. Because my dragons also protect those I fight for."

Baldoni says he responded supportively, writing: "I really love what you did. It really does help a lot. Makes it so much more fun and interesting. (And I would have felt that way without Ryan and Taylor).

"You really are a talent across the board. Really excited and grateful to do this together."

It is also alleged that Swift was involved in the casting of Isabela Ferrer in the film, who played a younger version of Lively's character, Lily Bloom.

Speaking at the New York premiere of It Ends With Us, Ferrer said: "She [Taylor Swift] was a helpful part of the audition, which I found out later when I got it, and that rocked my world."

But Swift's representatives said the only involvement she had in the film was permitting the use of her song, My Tears Ricochet, noting that she was among 20 artists featured in the film.

Swift "never set foot on the set of this movie, she was not involved in any casting or creative decisions, she did not score the film, [and] she never saw an edit or made any notes on the film", they said.

They added that Swift did not see It Ends With Us until "weeks after its release" as she was "travelling around the globe" on tour at the time.

The popstar's spokespeople argued that the subpoena "designed to use Taylor Swift's name to draw public interest by creating tabloid clickbait instead of focusing on the facts of the case".

Cardinal reveals what it was like to be part of highly secretive conclave

10 May 2025 at 20:22
Getty Images Cardinal Vincent Nichols holds up his hand while walking along. Getty Images

Being sealed off from the world in the conclave to choose the new Pope was "immensely peaceful", England and Wales's most senior Roman Catholic has told the BBC.

Cardinal Vincent Nichols, leader of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales, was one of 133 cardinals who were shut into the Vatican's Sistine Chapel and later elected Pope Leo XIV on Thursday.

He told BBC Breakfast on Saturday that nobody in the highly-secretive meeting was saying who to vote for or who to not vote for, adding that there was "no rancour" or "politicking" among the cardinals.

"It was a much calmer process than that and I found it actually a rather wonderful experience," he added.

Conclaves have take place in the Sistine Chapel since the 15th Century and cardinals must have no communication with the outside world until a new Pope is elected. The recent conclave came after the death of Pope Francis on 21 April.

The 79-year-old Cardinal Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said that his mobile phone was taken off him, adding that he found he had "more time on my hands just to be prayerful, just to reflect, just to be still, rather than being constantly agitated... or prompted by what might be coming in" on his phone.

"For me, one of the experiences of these last few days was to learn a bit of patience, to just take this step by step," he said.

"There was a calmness, a bit of solemnity," he continued, adding that everyone he spoke to when in it was "peaceful and just wanting to do this well".

Cardinal Vincent Nichols looks at the camera.
Cardinal Nichols spoke to BBC Breakfast on Saturday about the conclave

There is no timescale on how long it takes for a conclave to elect a new Pope, with previous ones in 2005 and 2013 lasting two days. The conclave that elected Pope Leo lasted for one day.

"I think it was a short conclave in part because Pope Francis left us with a good inheritance," the cardinal said.

"He left a college of cardinals who were dedicated, who had this desire for the church to be more missionary, and that led us forward actually very, very easily to the decision that we made."

Pope Leo will be formally inaugurated at a mass in St Peter's Square on 18 May, which delegations from countries around the world will attend.

The Duke of Edinburgh, Prince Edward, will attend on behalf of King Charles, Buckingham Palace confirmed on Saturday.

Speaking about the new Pope, Cardinal Nichols said Pope Leo is "very decisive" in a "quiet way", adding that he has seen him "make decisions which disappoint people but don't destroy them".

"A good thing about a pope is if he's able to say, 'No', to you when he thinks something is not right and then give you a hug so you don't go away offended, and I think he's got that ability to do both those things, which is very important."

Your guide to all 37 of this year's Eurovision songs

10 May 2025 at 11:15
Alma Bengtsson Australian musician Go-Jo drops to his knees, wearing bejeweled aqua leggings, and not much else, during rehearsals for the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest.Alma Bengtsson
Australia's Go-Jo is one of 37 artists hoping to lift the Eurovision trophy in Basel, Switzerland

The 2025 Eurovision Song Contest pops its cork on Sunday, with a "turquoise carpet" parade featuring competitors from all 37 nations.

But the competition really begins on Tuesday, when the first semi-final will see five countries unceremoniously kicked out.

Another six will lose their place at the second semi-final on Thursday, before the Grand Final takes place in Basel, Switzerland, on Saturday, 17 May.

This year's entrants include two returning contestants, one professional opera singer, a thinly veiled allusion to sexual emissions and a dance anthem about a dead space dog.

It's a lot to take in.

To help you prepare, here's a guide to all 37 songs in the contest, which I've sorted into rough musical categories, mainly for my own sanity (it didn't work).

Left-field pop bangers

Pavla Hartmanova / BBC / Alma Bengtsson JJ, Remember Monday and KAJPavla Hartmanova / BBC / Alma Bengtsson
From left to right: JJ, Remember Monday and KAJ

Win or lose, UK contestants Remember Monday have given headline writers a gift with the title of their entry: What The Hell Just Happened?

A souped-up, full throttle pop anthem, it cherry-picks the best bits of Queen, Andrew Lloyd Webber and the Beatles, presumably to remind voters of Britain's rich musical heritage.

With eight tempo changes, it could prove tricky for voters to grasp, but the band's stellar harmonies and sparkling personalities should carry them through.

Crucially, the song avoids the Eurovision cliches of jackhammer dance anthems and windswept balladry – something Remember Monday have in common with this year's favourites.

Sweating it out at the top are Swedish representatives KAJ, whose song Bara Bada Bastu is an ode to the restorative powers of the sauna, complete with dancers in skimpy towels.

Unreasonably catchy, it's won the approval of Abba's Bjorn Ulvaeus, whose been singing the track in his own private sauna. As you do.

Stiff competition comes from Austrian singer JJ, and his operatic ballad Wasted Love.

A timeworn story of unrequited love, it leans on his training as a counter-tenor, before exploding into an unexpected techno breakdown.

A favourite with the bookies, the song's only Achilles heel is its similarity to last year's winner, Nemo.

Distinctive in a different way is Ireland's entry, Laika Party – a 90s rave track about a dog who was sent to space by Russia and left to die there.

Singer Emmy aims for a hopeful spin on a tragic story but, despite a peppy performance, it's a bit of a downer.

More palatable is Luxembourg's Laura Thorn, whose La Poupée Monte Le Son is a callback to France Gall's 1965 winning entry, Poupée De Cire, Poupée De Son.

Where the original was about a "fashion doll" operated by songwriter Serge Gainsbourg, Thorn's response is all about taking control.

"If you think a man like you can manipulate me, go back to your mum," she scolds. Yeouch.

Other countries sucking up to Italy

ERR / Sarah Louise Bennett Tommy Cash and Gabry Ponte ERR / Sarah Louise Bennett
Tommy Cash and Gabry Ponte will represent Estonia and San Marino with tributes to Italian culture

Rome must be blushing. This year features not one, but two, songs about the vibrant culture of Il Bel Paese.

The first comes, not surprisingly, from San Marino – the independent microstate that nestles inside north-central Italy.

Titled Tutta L'Italia, it celebrates everything from the county's football team and its vineyards, to the Mona Lisa (under her Italian name Gioconda).

Written by Gabry Ponte – one of the brains behind Eiffel 65's Blue (Da Ba Dee) – it's a slight, but fun, mixture of dance beats, traditional accordion playing and the folk dances of Calabria.

The staging could be its downfall, though, with Gabry marooned behind his DJ decks while the singers, who for some reason wish to remain anonymous, obscure their faces with masks.

More memorable, but definitely more unhinged, is Estonia's Espresso Macchiato.

Performed by Tommy Cash (the only Eurovision contestant to have appeared on a Charli XCX record) it's an affectionate-ish caricature of Italian stereotypes, featuring the indelible lyric: "Life is like spaghetti, it's hard until you make it".

Smut!

Sarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson Go-Jo, Erika Vikman and Miriana ConteSarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson
From left to right: Go-Jo, Erika Vikman and Miriana Conte

I'm trying to give up sexual innuendo, but Eurovision is making it har... difficult.

A trio of artists are trying to sneak smut past the censors, led by Malta's Miriana Conte, with a throbbing club track called Serving.

In its original form, the song's chorus revolved around the phrase "serving kant" – the word kant being Maltese for "singing" and a homophone for an English term that definitely doesn't mean singing.

It's a reference to a well-known phrase in the drag / ballroom world; but several countries complained it broke broadcasting guidelines, prompting a hasty re-write.

If the stunt was meant to generate headlines it worked, but now that Miriana has our attention, she's not letting go.

Her performance, featuring a giant disco ball pursed between two red lips, is gloriously OTT, and she has an enviable set of pipes. Too bad the song is riddled with Europop cliche.

Another contestant doubling his entendres is Australia's Go-Jo, who wants us to "take a sip" of milkshake from his "special cup". Interpret that how you want but I'd be wary of hitching a lift in his ice cream van, if I were you.

With a smattering of Electric Six's saucy disco funk, Milkshake Man is tasty enough to get Australia back in the finals after only achieving a semi last year.

Finally, we have Finland's Erika Vikman, whose song Ich Komme is billed as a "joyous message of pleasure, ecstasy and a state of trance".

Structured to mimic the pneumatic realities of lovemaking, it recalls iconic gay anthems such as Kylie's Your Disco Needs You and Donna Summer's Hot Stuff – and ends with Erika shooting into the sky astride a massive gold microphone that's definitely not a stand-in for a phallus.

Three songs inspired by cancer

France Télévisions / Sarah Louise Bennett Louane, Klemen and Kyle AlessandroFrance Télévisions / Sarah Louise Bennett
From left to right: Louane, Klemen and Kyle Alessandro

Little in life is more devastating than the phrase "I'm afraid it's cancer".

The disease will affect one in two of us and, although survival rates have dramatically improved, the impact can be devastating.

This year, three separate Eurovision contestants have been touched by cancer, inspiring songs of unmatched heartbreak and reflection.

French singer Louane captures it best. Her song Maman, is an intimate conversation with her mother, who died when she was just 17 years old.

Over three verses, Louane describes the "emptiness" she was felt; and how she filled the void with bad behaviour and meaningless love affairs. But, as the song progresses, she tells her mum she's settled down and found purpose... by becoming a mother herself.

She sings it beautifully, with a mixture of regret and strength. And when her daughter's voice appears in the final moments of the song, it would take a steely heart not to shed a tear.

Over in Norway, 19-year-old Kyle Alessandro shared a similar story, when his mother was diagnosed with cancer in autumn 2023. Thankfully, she's now in remission, but something she said during her treatment inspired his Eurovision entry: "Never lose your light."

Kyle took that phrase and turned it into a thumping pop song about surviving adversity. "Nothing can burn me now," he sings. "I'm my own Lighter."

Klemen Slakonja, meanwhile, is a comedian best known in Slovenia for his impressions of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin - but his ballad, How Much Time Do We Have Left was written after his wife, actress Mojca Fatur, was diagnosed with bone marrow cancer.

As he sings, Klemen's dancers raise him into the air and hold him upside down, to represent the disorientation the family felt.

"When she read her diagnosis, our world turned upside down and I felt that rush of blood in my head, the same one I feel whenever I am upside down in the performance," he told Eurovision World.

Defying the odds, Mojca survived, and joins him on stage at Eurovision. It's a deeply intimate and moving moment.

The bops

Sarah Louise Bennett / Valero Rioja / Alma Bengtsson Red Sebastian, Melody and VæbSarah Louise Bennett / Valero Rioja / Alma Bengtsson
Left to right: Red Sebastian, Melody and Væb

Listening to this year's line-up, it's like the contestants all heard Cascada's Evacuate the Dancefloor and went, "Nah, we're good, thanks".

There are club bangers everywhere, with Belgium's Red Sebastian (named after the crab in The Little Mermaid, bless him) submitting an entire song about the loved-up liberation of an all-night rave.

"Where no words are needed to feel the connection / Where clocks never tick and where love is the ending."

A favourite with fans, the 90s rave elements of Strobe Lights feel a little dated to me, but his meticulously-choreographed performance is a treat.

Denmark's Sissal takes a similar sound, with a throwback Euro-bop called Hallucination that effortlessly evokes two-time Eurovision winner Loreen.

Sissal said her biggest goal was for the audience to feel they couldn't sit down during the song. Mission accomplished.

Germany, meanwhile, have been hoping to reverse their 15-year losing streak with Baller, a super-catchy trance anthem that wouldn't sound out of place at Berlin superclub Berghain.

Performed by Austrian siblings Abor & Tynna, it's languishing in the middle of the field, after Tynna developed laryngitis, robbing the duo of the chance to impress fans at Eurovision's various pre-parties. But now that she's recovered, the song could rise up the rankings.

That's less likely for Væb, aka the Icelandic Jedward. Their energetic dance-rap song, Roá, is all about rowing from Iceland to the Faroe Islands, "because no matter what happens in life you just keep on rowing through the waves".

Sadly, it's not as deep as it sounds.

Spanish star Melody fares better with Esa Diva, a pumping house track with a sprinkling of flamenco guitar, that documents her journey to fame.

And Azerbaijan's Mamagama go all Maroon 5 on Run With U, a smooth pop song elevated by a twinkling riff on the saz – a long-necked plucked instrument similar to the lute.

Post-immigrant pop

Sarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson Shkodra Elektronike, Claude and KlavdiaSarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson
From left to right: Shkodra Elektronike, Claude and Klavdia

OK, so I've stolen that description from Shkodra Elektronike.

They're an Albanian duo living in Italy, who fuse the ethnic music of their hometown, Shkodër, to a progressive electronic sound.

Their song Zjerm (Fire) imagines a time when cross-cultural understanding would lead to peace and harmony – a world without a need for soldiers and ambulances, and where "oil would smell like lilac" (no, me neither).

Greece's entry, Asteromáta, is also rooted in history and memory, as Klavdia describes the unbreakable bond that refugees share with their homeland.

"Even if they cross the seas / They shall never forget the sacred earth they called home," she sings, in a haunting ballad that blends traditional Greek and Pontic elements with soaring strings.

Taking a more upbeat approach is Dutch singer Claude. A refugee from the bloody civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo, he moved to the Netherlands at the age of nine and fell in love with Eurovision while waiting in the refugee centre.

His song, C'est La Vie, is a tribute to his mum, who taught him to see the positive in their situation.

Fizzing with freedom and joy, it combines elements of chanson and French-Caribbean zouk, and looks set for a top 10 placing.

Witchcraft, sorcery and moody goth boys

Sarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson Theo Evan, Justyna Steczkowska and Marko BošnjakSarah Louise Bennett / Alma Bengtsson
From left to right: Theo Evan, Justyna Steczkowska and Marko Bošnjak

The success of "goth gremlin witch" Bambie Thug at last year's Eurovision has conjured a veritable coven of imitators in 2025.

Polish singer Justyna Steczkowska, representing her country for the second time, even includes a Slavic magic spell in her song, Gaja – summoning the spirit of the mother Earth to "cleanse" her of a toxic relationship.

It's a suitably intense performance, with Justyna singing long sustained notes and playing a furious violin solo, before being hoiked into the rafters on a pair ropes.

What a time to be alive.

Marko Bošnjak, meanwhile, is cooking up a Poison Cake to feed to his tormentors - chiefly the people who bombarded him with homophobic hate messages after he was selected to represent Croatia.

The criticism was so intense that he lost his voice and couldn't leave the house for five days.

His song is suitably melodramatic, replete with guttural synths and creepy playground chants. It's a little overbaked, but should still sail through to the finals.

Taking a more ethereal approach are Latvian group Tautumeitas, whose song Bur Man Laimi translates as "a chant for happiness".

Reminiscent of Bjork and Enya, its overlapping folk harmonies are based on traditional Latvian wedding songs, making it one of this year's most captivating entries. I fear it may be too subtle to score well, though.

Further mystery is provided by, Theo Evan, Cyprus's answer to Nick Jonas. The lyrics to his song, Shh, are a riddle, written by former tennis player Elke Tiel, whose "hidden truth will only be revealed on the Eurovision stage in May".

He opens his performance perched between two pieces of scaffolding in a recreation of Leonardo da Vinci's famous Vitruvian Man sketch – so there's a clue.

Shh is one of a number of gothic pop songs, sung by brooding young men with interesting hair.

Among the best is Kiss Kiss Goodbye, by Czechia's Adonxs, who divebombs from an angelic falsetto to an unsettling baritone as he confronts his absent father.

Lithuanian band Katarsis are an interesting experiment, with a deliberately downbeat rock song that declares "the foundations of everything have begun to rot".

Titled Tavo Akys (your eyes), it builds to a compelling climax, but it's hard to see it being a vote-winner, unless Eurovision suddenly attracts an audience of depressed emo teens.

Rounding out the field are Armenian singer Parg, with the Imagine Dragons-inspired Survivor and Serbia's Princ, whose overwrought ballad is called Mila.

Both performers give it their all, but the songs don't feel strong enough to survive the semi-finals.

70s rock throwbacks

Getty Images / Alma Bengtsson Lucio Corsi, Napa and ZiferblatGetty Images / Alma Bengtsson
From left to right: Lucio Corsi, Napa and Ziferblat

Four years after Måneskin's victory, Eurovision's rock revival continues apace.

Italy are back at it again, thanks to Lucio Corsi – think David Bowie as Pierrot – and his glam rock ballad Volevo Essere Un Duro (I wanted to be tough).

A delicate anthem for people who feel they don't fit in, it recalls how Lucio was bullied as a kid, and how he's grown to embrace his fragility. At one point, he sings: "Instead of a star, [I'm] just a sneeze."

It's a timeless bit of songwriting that pulls off that crucial Eurovision trick of sounding new and familiar all at once.

Portuguese indie band Napa also have a 70s vibe, channelling Paul McCartney's Wings on the soft rock tear-jerker Deslocado (out of place).

It's another song about migration, written after the band were forced to relocate from Madeira to the Portuguese mainland due to the economic crisis.

"Even though we've been here for a few years we always have that desire to go back, and that anguish of saying goodbye to family," said singer Guilherme Gomes.

Last but not least are Ukraine's Ziferblat, who continue the country's astonishing run of high-quality entries in the midst of a war with Russia.

Their song, Bird Of Pray, is an unexpected mix of 70s new wave band Cars, birdsong and the guitar riff from Rachel Stevens' Sweet Dreams My LA Ex – while the lyrics are full of hope for a peaceful reunion with their loved ones.

It's better than that makes it sound.

The ballads

Shai Franco / Sarah Louise Bennett / Maurice Haas Yuval Raphael, Nina Žižić and Zoë MëShai Franco / Sarah Louise Bennett / Maurice Haas
From left to right: Yuval Raphael, Nina Žižić and Zoë Më

Where would Eurovision be without a raven-haired woman bellowing into a wind machine set to "hurricane"?

Israel has strong form in this category, and sets the bar again with New Day Will Rise, a melancholy piano ballad sung in a mixture of English, French and Hebrew.

The song's performed by Yuval Raphael, a 24-year-old who narrowly escaped with her life at the 2023 Nova music festival, where an attack by Hamas claimed the lives of 378 people and triggered Israel's ongoing offensive in Gaza.

It's hard not to interpret her lyrics as a response to those events – "everyone cries, don't cry alone". As a result, her participation hasn't received the same level of criticism as Eden Golan, who represented Israel last year.

That can't be said for Georgia's contestant, Mariam Shengelia, who has been booed during pre-Eurovision appearances for her alleged support of the country's authoritarian, pro-Russian, anti-LGBT ruling party, Georgian Dream.

Shengelia has denied the accusations, pointing out that her song – a stirring, quasi-militaristic ballad called Freedom – is about "freedom of choice, freedom to love, freedom to live as you want to live".

"No amount of manufactured hate will change that," she told the Eurovision fan site Wiwibloggs.

Montenegro's Nina Žižić tackles domestic abuse in Dobrodošli, a brooding and refined orchestral ballad.

The singer, who previously entered Eurovision in 2015 with the cyborg pop oddity Igranka, delivers her lyrics with passion and sincerity, but somehow the song never quite takes off.

Last but not least, we have defending champions Switzerland, represented by 24-year-old Zoë Më, who describes herself as a "little fairy".

Appropriately enough, her self-penned song, Voyage is delicate as a fairy's wings, fluttering with a soft-spoken plea to treat each other with kindness.

Automatically qualifying for the final, it's a welcome oasis of calm amidst the steamy sauna sessions, moody goth haircuts and thrusting innuendo.

But that's Eurovision for you. All human life is here. See you in Basel!

'I freaked out and spent $400 on Shein': US shipping changes spark concern

10 May 2025 at 12:01
Deborah Grushkin Deborah Grushkin, her eyes dramatically outlined, wears a pink shirt and holds up a Shein package Deborah Grushkin
Deborah Grushkin says she felt panicked when she heard about the end of "de minimis"

Earlier this year, Deborah Grushkin, an enthusiastic online shopper from New Jersey, "freaked out".

US President Donald Trump had signed an order to stop allowing packages from China worth less than $800 (£601) to enter the country free of import taxes and customs procedures.

It was a move, backed by traditional retailers, that had been discussed in Washington for years amid an explosion of packages slipping into the US under the limit.

Many countries, including the UK, are considering similar measures, spurred in part by the rapid ascent of Shein and Temu.

But in the US, Trump's decision to end the carve-out while ordering a blitz of new trade tariffs, including import taxes of at least 145% on goods from China, has delivered a one-two punch that has left businesses and shoppers reeling.

US-based e-commerce brands, which were set up around the system, are warning the changes could spark failures of smaller firms, while shoppers like Deborah brace for price hikes and shortages.

With the 2 May deadline bearing down, the 36-year-old last month rushed in some $400 worth of items from Shein - including stickers, T-shirts, sweatshirts, Mother's Days gifts and 20 tubes of liquid eyeliner.

"I felt like maybe it was my last sort of hurrah," she says.

Use of rules known as "de minimis", which allow low-value packages to avoid tariffs, customs inspections and other regulatory requirements, has surged over the last decade.

Take-up accelerated during Trump's first term in office, when he raised tariffs on many Chinese goods.

By 2023, such shipments represented more than 7% of consumer imports, up from less than 0.01% a decade earlier. Last year, nearly 1.4 billion packages entered the country using the exemption - more than 3.7 million a day.

Advocates of the carve-out, which include shipping firms, say the system has streamlined trade, leading to lower prices and more options for customers.

Those in favour of change, a group that includes lawmakers from both parties, say businesses are abusing rules intended to ease gifts between family and friends, and the rise has made it easier to slip products that are illegal, counterfeit or violate safety standards and other rules into the country.

Trump recently called de minimis a "scam", brushing off concerns about higher costs. "Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls," he said.

However, polls suggest concerns about his economic policies are rising as the changes start to hit home.

Krystal DuFrene Krystal DuFrene stands in front of a door banner with a blue peacockKrystal DuFrene
Krystal DuFrene believes it's the consumer who ends up paying the tariff

Krystal DuFrene, a retired 57-year-old from Mississippi who relies on disability payments for her income, says she has nervously been checking prices on Temu for weeks, recently cancelling an order for curtains after seeing the price more than triple.

Though she eventually found the same item for the original price in the platform's US warehouse network, she says the cost of her husband's fishing nets had more than doubled.

"I don't know who pays the tariff except the customer," she says. "Everywhere is selling cheap stuff from China so I actually prefer being able to order directly."

When the rules around de minimis changed last week, Temu said it would stop selling goods imported from China in the US directly to customers from its platform, and that all sales would now be handled by "locally based sellers", with orders fulfilled from within the US.

'End of an era'

Even without the latest tariffs, economists Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal had estimated that ending de minimis would lead to at least $10.9bn in new costs, which they found would be disproportionately borne by lower income and minority households.

"It does kind of feel like the end of an era," says Gee Davis, a 40-year-old author from Missouri, who used Temu during a recent house move to buy small items such as an electric can opener and kitchen cabinet organisers.

Gee Davis Gee Davis and her roommateGee Davis
Gee Davis and her roommate used Temu to get new kitchen organisers as they moved house

She says it was a relief to be able to easily afford the extras and the new rules felt like a "money grab" by the government to benefit big, entrenched American retailers like Amazon and Walmart that sell similar products - but at a bigger mark-up.

"I don't think it's right or fair that little treats should be [restricted] to people who are richer.

"It just would be a real bummer if everyone who was under a certain household income threshold was just no longer able to afford anything for themselves."

As with other Trump policy changes, questions remain about the significance of the shift.

The president was already forced to suspend the policy once before, as packages began piling up at the border.

Lori Wallach, director at Rethink Trade, which supports ending de minimis for consumer safety reasons, says the end of the exemption is significant "on paper", but she fears the administration is taking steps that will weaken its implementation.

She points to a recent customs notice, which said products affected by many of the new tariffs could enter the country through the informal process, a move that eases some regulatory requirements.

"Practically, because all of this stuff can come though informal entry, it's going to be extremely hard to collect tariffs or to be able to inspect really very much more than before the change happened," she says.

'An insurmountable shift'

Customs and Border Protection deny the move will undermine enforcement, noting that firms are still required to supply more information than before.

Businesses have indicated they are taking the changes seriously.

Washington Post/Getty Images Style guide Kiavash Asghari, center, measures customer Bobby Bartlett, of Germantown, Md., on a new suit purchase at Indochino in Tyson's Galleria on January 12, 2018 in McLean, Va. (Photo by Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post via Getty Images)Washington Post/Getty Images
Custom suit company Indochino has said changes to de minimis pose a "significant threat" to its viability

Both Shein and Temu last month warned customers that prices would rise, while Temu says it is rapidly expanding its network of US-based sellers and warehouses to protect its low prices.

Other business groups say many smaller, less high-profile American brands that manufacture abroad for US customers are struggling - and may not survive.

"If the tariffs weren't in place, it would be like taking a little bit of bitter medicine," says Alex Beller, board member of the Ecommerce Innovation Alliance, a business lobby group and a co-founder of Postscript, which works with thousands of smaller businesses on text messaging marketing.

"But paired with the other tariffs, especially for brands that manufacture in China, it just becomes an insurmountable shift."

In a letter to the government last month, men's clothing company Indochino, known for its custom suits made-to-order in China, warned that ending de minimis posed a "significant threat to the viability" of its business and other mid-size American firms like it.

Steven Borelli is the chief executive of the athleisure clothing firm CUTS, which manufactures outside the US, shipping products to a warehouse in Mexico, from where packages are mailed to customers in the US.

His firm has been pushing to reduce its reliance on China, halting orders in the country months ago. Still, he says he is now considering price increases and job cuts.

He says his business has room to manoeuvre, since it caters to higher income customers, but he expects "thousands" of other brands to die without changes to the situation.

"We want more time," he says. "The speed at which everything is happening is too fast for businesses to adjust."

“何日君再来” ——邓丽君逝世30周年

10 May 2025 at 23:47

本“筠”成“均”:1953年1月29日,邓丽君出生于台湾云林县一个军人家庭。父亲邓枢,原籍河北大名县,是随中华民国政府迁台的国军军官;母亲赵素桂则来自山东东平县。邓丽君在五个兄弟姐妹中排行第四,有三位兄长和一位弟弟。满月时,父亲请部队中一位学识颇丰的杨姓军官为她取名“丽筠”,意为“美丽的竹子”,然而,“筠”字在乡里口中常被误读为“均”。后来,她在踏入歌坛后正式以“邓丽君”为艺名,从此这个名字成为华语乐坛无法抹去的传奇。邓丽君在上小学时就展示出歌唱天赋。1967年,年仅14岁的她发行了首张个人专辑《凤阳花鼓》,自此开启了她璀璨夺目的音乐人生。

亚洲歌姬:上世纪七十至八十年代,邓丽君的歌声几乎席卷整个华人世界。她以多种语言演唱日本流行曲、东南亚民谣和国语情歌,打破地域与文化的界限,成为亚洲流行文化融合的桥梁。那时流传一句话:“有华人的地方,就有邓丽君的歌声。”她的代表作如《月亮代表我的心》《甜蜜蜜》《小城故事》《何日君再来》《我只在乎你》以及《但愿人长久》,不仅脍炙人口,更在此后几十年中不断被一代又一代歌手翻唱,成为横跨时代的经典。台湾著名音乐人李宗盛曾说:“在演艺圈,很多人是‘奇迹’,但唯有邓丽君,可以称得上‘传奇’。” 而香港女歌手王菲则坦言,邓丽君是她唯一的偶像,也是启蒙的老师:“我从未想过,也不认为自己可以超越邓丽君。我喜欢她的歌,所以我就去唱。”

靡靡之音:邓丽君柔和的歌声穿透了两岸。邓丽君和当时的中国共产党领导人邓小平(老邓)一起成为老百姓熟悉的名字,并流传着“白天听老邓,晚上听小邓”、“只爱小邓,不爱老邓”等民间戏语。不过,伴随着小邓音乐的流行,批判也逐渐开始。1979年,针对以邓丽君为代表的港台歌曲因在大城市里广受欢迎,一些老音乐人为此特意召开了一次“西山会议”,邓丽君的歌曲被定性为“黄色歌曲”和“靡靡之音”,随即全面被禁。但禁令却进一步助长了邓丽君的流行,80年代开始,邓丽君的歌曲已经传遍大陆,虽然官方媒体从未播放过。2014年《人民日报》的一篇报道中说,早在上世纪80年代,习近平就是邓丽君的歌迷。他曾和(前人大常委会副委员长)耿飚的司机杨希连一起,“把那盘《小城故事》的磁带都听坏了”。

《甜蜜蜜》:1996年,香港电影《甜蜜蜜》横扫各大电影奖项,荣获金马奖最佳剧情片与最佳女主角奖,并在香港电影金像奖中一举夺得最佳电影、最佳导演等九项大奖。片中男女主角骑单车时轻声哼唱《甜蜜蜜》的画面,成为影史中温柔而隽永的经典瞬间。这部电影是为纪念歌手邓丽君逝世而作,曾计划以《大城小爱》为片名,其后更名为《甜蜜蜜》。故事发生的年代也正是邓丽君在日本乃至整个东亚最为活跃的巅峰时期,最后以她不幸因病去世这一事件为全片故事结尾的契机。电影的同名主题曲《甜蜜蜜》,原改编自印尼民谣《Dayung Sampan》(《划舢舨》),也是邓丽君最为家喻户晓的作品之一。影片原声带中还收录了她的多首经典代表作,包括《再见我的爱人》《月亮代表我的心》等。

寸心不移:邓丽君从小受军旅家庭的影响,与国民党有着深厚渊源。1980年10月4日,邓丽君在台北国父纪念馆演唱会上,非常直白地表达政治立场。主持人田文仲提及大陆方面曾有邀约她前往演出的传闻,邓丽君回应称,她曾在报纸上看见过相关消息,但无人与她接洽,并说道:“当我在大陆演唱的那一天,就是我们‘三民主义’在大陆实行的那一天。”1985年2月9日,邓丽君在新加坡接受香港记者电话访问时,公开表示:“身为一个艺人,有这么多中国人喜欢听自己的歌,心里难免会有点儿想面对面唱给他们听的冲动,但是我生长在台湾,我一定会坚持我的立场,不可能去大陆演唱……”六四事件发生后,她更明确表态:“我跟他们说了,六四不平反,我就不去大陆。”

念兹在兹:1989年六四事件前后,邓丽君表态支持参与抗议活动的学生,且不顾周遭亲友反对参与相关的抗议集会。5月27日,她在香港跑马地《民主歌声献中华》活动中悬挂手书“反对军管”的牌子并演唱《我的家在山的那一边》。同年10月,于日本TBS电视台的《爱的15年—出道15周年特别节目》中,邓丽君在演唱《悲伤之自由》之前动情发言:“我是中国人,无论到世界何处,在哪里生活也好,我都是中国人。所以今年中国所发生的事情,让我感到很痛心。中国的未来究竟在哪里?我十分忧虑。我渴望自由,而且所有人都应该享有自由。如果自由受到威胁,那是多么可悲的事。但是,这种悲痛的心情,总有一天会好起来的,无论是谁都一定能够互相了解的,深信那一天的到来。”

自由之声:位于金门的马山观测所距离福建角屿仅2公里,是金门本岛距中国大陆最近点,两岸军事对峙时期曾有天下第一哨之称。马山播音站也曾是台湾对大陆心战喊话的第一线。1991年3月,邓丽君在金门前线马山观测所向大陆同胞喊话:“亲爱的大陆同胞们,你们好,我是邓丽君。我现在来到金门广播站向大陆沿海的同胞们广播,今天,我很高兴地能够站在自由祖国的第一前线——金门,我感觉到非常地快乐、非常的幸福。我希望大陆的同胞也可以跟我们享受到一样的民主跟自由,唯有在自由、民主、富庶的生活环境下,才能拥有实现个人理想的机会;也唯有全体青年都能够自由发挥聪明才智,国家的未来才能充满光明和希望。”随着时代变迁,马山播音站早已停止了对中国大陆的心战喊话,现今偶尔播放流行音乐和台语歌曲,成为历史的见证。

猝逝清迈:1995年5月8日,邓丽君因哮喘引发心肌梗塞,送医途中贻误最佳抢救时机,于泰国清迈猝逝,享年42岁。邓丽君的香消玉殒正值她声名鼎盛的时期。这或许可以与猫王普雷斯利、美国女星玛丽莲·梦露或英国戴安娜王妃的早逝相提并论:他们的离世不仅震惊了千万粉丝,也引发了层出不穷的阴谋论。围绕邓丽君的离世也出现了各种各样的猜测,其中也不乏离奇荒谬的说法,例如有人说她被美国中央情报局暗杀,以阻止东亚整合。或者邓丽君伪造了自己的死亡消息,逃至法国并在那里隐居。还有传言说她是被恶灵所杀。又或者根据一个佛教团体的说法,邓丽君是观世音菩萨的化身,被召回天界。

云去云来:台湾演员林青霞是邓丽君生前的挚友。她在散文集《云去云来》中,专门写下了一篇名为《印象邓丽君》的文章,深情追忆这位如谜的朋友。林青霞写道:“和她(邓丽君)的交往不算深。她很神秘,如果她不想被打扰,你是联络不到她的。我们互相欣赏。对她欣赏的程度是—男朋友移情别恋如果对象是她,我决不介意。”她还回忆起2013年新年前夕,在南非度假时的一个夜晚:“因为睡不着,打开窗帘,窗外满天星斗,拱照着蒙上一层层薄雾的橘色月亮,诗意盎然,我想起了她,嘴里轻哼起‘月亮代表我的心’。她的突然离去,我怅然若失,总觉得我们之间的情谊不该就这样结束了。这些年她经常在我梦里出现,梦里的她和现实的她一样—谜一样的女人。奇妙的是,在梦里,世人都以为她去了天国,唯独我知道她还在人间。”

缘何怀念:为什么30年后人们仍在纪念邓丽君?有历史学者认为,人们对逝者的长久纪念,实质是在确认自身的历史坐标。邓丽君的持久影响力,源于她不仅是一位歌手,更是一个时代的文化符号。她的音乐承载了个人与集体的记忆,超越了政治隔阂。她的形象凝聚了华人的情感认同,而她的早逝则让她的传奇永远定格在最美的瞬间。如今的年轻人,或许未曾亲历那个年代,但在短视频平台、翻唱作品、AI复刻甚至博物馆展览中,依然可以看到“永远的邓丽君”。她被不断致敬、重温、再发现。每一次播放,都是一场时光的穿越;每一次纪念,都是一次文化的回望。

中美高层日内瓦密谈 贸易战现缓和迹象

10 May 2025 at 22:47
德正
2025-05-10T14:29:34.308Z
中美正尝试缓解贸易争端

(德国之声中文网)据中国官媒新华社报道,周六(5月10日)上午,中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行。报道介绍,中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人,当天与美方牵头人、美国财长贝森特(Scott Bessent)举行会谈。

这是自美国总统特朗普发起贸易战以来,双方高层官员首次公开证实针对贸易紧张局势举行会谈。外界普遍认为,虽然取得重大突破的希望渺茫,但此举是缓解中美贸易战的初步尝试。

虽然会谈具体地点并未公开,但目击者称,周六当天,双方代表团在午休后返回了位于日内瓦郊区科洛尼(Cologny)的瑞士驻联合国大使官邸继续谈判。美联社报道称,一位不愿透露姓名的外交消息人士称,周六上午双方进行了大约两小时会谈,随后赴预定午宴。

上个月,特朗普将对中国商品的关税提高至总计145%,中国则以125%的报复性关税回应。如此高的税率几乎等同于双方抵制对方商品,严重扰乱去年高达6600亿美元的双边贸易。

这场贸易争端,加上特朗普对其他数十个国家加征关税的决定,已严重扰乱全球供应链,动摇金融市场,并引发对全球经济急剧下滑的担忧。

美国财长贝森特(资料图片)

期望有限

华盛顿希望削减对华贸易逆差,并说服中国放弃其“重商主义”经济模式,更积极参与全球消费,这将涉及中国一系列政治上较为敏感的国内改革。而北京反对外部干涉,要求华盛顿降低关税、明确希望中方增加采购的商品,并在国际舞台上平等对待中国。

然而,在互信缺失的背景下,双方都不愿示弱,经济分析人士对会谈成果预期不高。

华盛顿智库史汀生中心(Stimson Center)中国项目主任孙韵向美联社指出,这是何立峰与贝森特首次会谈。她对会谈能达成实质成果持怀疑态度,但认为若双方同时宣布降低关税,即便幅度不大,也将释放积极信号。

中欧国际工商学院经济学教授许斌向法新社表示,会谈表明双方愿意对话,这一点本身就很重要。“中国是唯一对特朗普关税进行对等反制的国家,”他补充道。

中国副总理何立峰(资料图片)

瑞士经济部长帕尔默林(Guy Parmelin)周五在日内瓦分别会见了中美代表团,他称会谈的举行本身就是一种成功。“如果双方能达成路线图并决定继续对话,将有助于缓解紧张局势,”他向记者表示,谈判可能持续至周日甚至周一。此次会议是由瑞士在近期中美访问中斡旋促成的。

路透社援引世界贸易组织发言人报道称,何立峰还计划临时会见世贸组织的总干事伊维拉(Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala)。伊维拉早前曾表示欢迎此次会谈,称其是“走向缓和的积极建设性一步”,并呼吁世界两大经济体持续对话。

特朗普周五在社交媒体上表示,对中国产品征收80%关税“看起来合理”,暗示关税可能下调。特朗普还称是中国想与美方谈判,而北京则表示,会谈是应美方请求而举行的。

中国可能也在寻求与其他国家类似的90天关税豁免期,而任何形式的减税与后续谈判都将被投资者视为积极信号。

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美伊核谈判周日继续 特朗普下周访问中东

10 May 2025 at 22:47
德正
2025-05-10T14:31:44.217Z
特朗普在第一任期内退出了前总统奥巴马促成的伊朗核协议。该协议允许伊朗在远低于武器级别的标准下进行铀浓缩

(德国之声中文网)美国和伊朗将于周日(5月11日)在阿曼苏丹国举行新一轮核谈判,而特朗普即将在下周访问中东。

特朗普将访问海湾地区的三个阿拉伯君主国——沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋。他曾表达希望与德黑兰达成协议,以避免以色列对伊朗核计划发动军事打击,从而引发更大范围的战争。

此前,在阿曼和意大利罗马举行的三轮谈判结束时,双方都表达了乐观态度。尽管美伊敌对已持续四十年,但目前的外交气氛被形容为友好。

不过,这些谈判尚未进入技术细节,许多基本问题仍未解决。

特朗普的朋友、全球特使史蒂夫·维特科夫(Steve Witkoff)曾表示,将允许伊朗为民用目的保留低浓缩铀的灵活性。

但在周五(5月9日)发布的一次采访中,维特科夫明确地给出了不同的信息。他表示,特朗普政府将反对伊朗进行任何形式的铀浓缩。

他在右翼媒体《布赖特巴特新闻》上说:“伊朗绝不能再拥有铀浓缩计划。这是我们的红线。绝不允许浓缩。”

他说:“这意味着要拆除,这意味着不能武器化,也意味着纳坦兹、福尔多和伊斯法罕——他们的三个浓缩设施——都必须被拆除。”

美国国务卿卢比奥此前曾提出,伊朗可以进口用于民用能源的浓缩铀。

特朗普在第一任期内退出了前总统奥巴马促成的伊朗核协议。该协议允许伊朗在远低于武器级别的标准下进行铀浓缩。

2011年开始启用的伊朗布什尔核电站

“要么好好地炸,要么狠狠地炸”

伊朗是否会自愿完全拆除其核计划并放弃所有铀浓缩活动?许多观察人士表示怀疑

不过,过去一年中,伊朗的处境变得更加不利。以色列重创了伊朗支持的黎巴嫩什叶派武装组织真主党,使其在战争中反击的能力大为削弱。同时,伊朗在阿拉伯世界的主要盟友、叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德在去年12月被推翻

以色列还打击了伊朗的防空系统。在2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列进行恐怖袭击之后,两国关系公开恶化,爆发了冲突。哈马斯同样得到伊朗政权的支持。

特朗普本人也承认,他在伊朗政策上面临矛盾。他表示,自己在第二任期伊始,一些鹰派顾问曾敦促他加强对伊朗的压力,而他对此持保留态度。

在周四(5月8日)的一次采访中,特朗普表示,他希望“彻底验证”伊朗有争议的核活动已经停止,但希望通过外交途径实现。

他对保守派电台主持人休·休伊特(Hugh Hewitt)说,他宁愿“达成交易”,也不愿看到军事行动。

伊朗外长在3月曾表示:不会在“胁迫”下开展谈判

特朗普说:“只有两种选择——要么好好地炸,要么狠狠地炸。”

伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉克齐(Abbas Araghchi)表示,阿曼作为调解方提出周日为谈判日期,双方都已同意。

阿拉克齐在伊朗媒体发布的视频中说:“谈判正在推进,自然地,越往前走,我们需要的磋商就越多,代表团也需要更多时间研究问题。”

他说:“但重要的是,我们正在前进,逐步进入细节阶段。”

尽管谈判在进行,特朗普政府仍不断加码对伊朗的制裁,这激怒了德黑兰。周四,美国又制裁了中国一家炼油厂,这是伊朗石油的主要出口市场。

自特朗普退出奥巴马时期协议以来,美国一直试图利用其影响力阻止所有国家购买伊朗石油。

美国总统的出访历程

除了赴梵蒂冈参加前教宗方济各的葬礼之外,这趟中东之行是特朗普第二任期的重要外交行程。

自1900年以来,据法新社统计,美国总统共进行了834次出访,访问了116个国家和地区。

二战前,由于交通限制,美国总统的外访主要集中在拉丁美洲。二战后,欧洲成为美国总统首选的出访地区。

苏联解体后,东欧成为克林顿和小布什总统频繁出访的地区。

特朗普和泽连斯基周六在罗马参加教宗方济各葬礼期间,在梵蒂冈举行了会谈

在1970年代以前,没有美国总统访问过中东。

尼克松在1974年6月首次访问中东,走访了沙特阿拉伯、叙利亚、以色列和约旦。

从克林顿时代起,美国总统越来越多地访问中东,试图调解巴以冲突,也卷入了该地区的其他冲突。

以色列的重要性也由此凸显,自上世纪70年代以来,美国国务卿访问以色列次数达到169次,远超同一时期对整个撒哈拉以南非洲的访问总数。

进入奥巴马和特朗普第一任期,东亚和东南亚也成为美国总统重视的出访地区,两人四分之一的外访都集中在亚洲。

奥巴马政府时期,美国推出“亚太再平衡”政策,试图应对中国日益增长的地区影响力。

在这一战略框架下,美国对传统盟友日本的依赖加深。日本也因此成为奥巴马和特朗普总统外访中排名第二的目的地。

(法新社)

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大俄的碎碎念|中俄商人如何在茶叶销售中互相欺骗

10 May 2025 at 22:11

俄罗斯和中国之间的茶叶贸易是一部真正的经济惊悚片。卖家和转售商抬高巨额佣金,实施欺骗,一夜之间就可成百万富翁。

从 1727 年开始,每年俄罗斯和中国商人都会乘坐雪橇、战车、三驾马车和轿子来到恰克图(今布里亚特)。他们长途跋涉来做茶叶交易。恰克图当时被称为“西伯利亚汉堡”和“沙漠威尼斯”。这里牵涉到很多金钱。

来自专门委员会的俄罗斯商人致力于制定交易条款,与中国同行协调当季价格,同时也参观其他人的商品并展示自己的商品。在线人帮助下,他们可以改变产品交付时间来牟利。

img

(恰克图,1783 年,路易斯·尼古拉斯·德·莱斯皮纳斯)

出售的货物,也就是用来交换茶叶的货物,都是通过西伯利亚公路从各个省份运输过来的,这条公路也被称为茶叶之路。它从莫斯科延伸至恰克图。从那里,茶叶商人穿越内蒙古大草原,抵达当时被认为是通往中国的门户——张家口。

CDT 档案卡
标题:大俄的碎碎念|中俄商人如何在茶叶销售中互相欺骗
作者:大俄的碎碎念
发表日期:2025.5.10
来源:微信公众号“大俄的碎碎念”
主题归类:中俄贸易
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

根据沙皇保罗一世1800年3月颁布的《关于恰克图关税的法令》,所有结算均通过易货贸易进行。俄罗斯商人一直用本土商品来交换中国茶叶:纺织品和皮革、面包、山羊皮、赛加羚羊角和马鹿角,狐狸、水獭、貂、白鼬、北极狐、猞猁甚至猫等毛皮动物的毛皮特别受中国人的喜爱。直到1855年政府才最终允许货币支付。

img

(1851 年地图,从伊尔库茨克到北京的路线,在两国边境有姐妹城市——恰克图和買賣城)

買賣城,字面意思是“贸易城镇”,蒙古语:Naimaa hot、Maimaa hot、Maimaachin)是 19 世纪和 20 世纪初中国在外蒙古的几个贸易定居点的名称。靠近俄蒙边境,即所谓的“蒙古恰克图”(今阿尔坦布拉克)

恰克图各类商品的运输方式、保质期均有差异,运输所需的时间也不同。因此,雅库特博览会的毛皮于 11 月抵达,而莫斯科的皮革和织物则在次年头几个月抵达。

恰克图的交易有点让人想起现代交易所的股票市场。恰克图“多头”押注价格上涨,提前购买茶叶或毛皮,然后在需求高峰时卖出。空头伺机而动,故意不产生需求,等待更有利的条件。

在一次熊市中,舍斯托夫兄弟俩赚了一大笔钱。 1841年,由于山路崎岖,中国商人比往常晚运送了大批茶叶到恰克图。因此,只被允许销售上等茶叶,以免浪费时间检查廉价茶叶(毕竟,假冒商品确实存在)。当中级交易员还在犹豫是否要买入昂贵的商品时,掌握了情况的舍斯托夫兄弟已经成功购买了相当数量的商品,并成为了垄断者。

img

(恰克图的俄罗斯和中国商队)

当国内茶叶过剩的威胁笼罩着贸易商时,俄罗斯商人却相反,暂停了采购,因为他们担心展会和莫斯科的茶叶价格会下跌。因此推迟了货物交付,否则交易就不可能完成。

但这事不可能拖得太久。这些毛皮必须在秋季或初冬出售,而且随着温暖季节的到来,中国对毛皮的需求也会下降。由于道路泥泞、河水泛滥、货物损坏风险高、雇用马车夫的费用高昂以及牲畜饲料缺乏等多种原因,到了春季,俄罗斯境内的物流变得更加昂贵,毕竟冬季将货物运送到国内展会的费用要便宜一半。

中国茶商也先期抵达恰克图。但这不仅仅是因为他们想尽早达成交易。而是根据一项秘密指示。根据秘密指示,商贾抵达恰克图后,必须刺探俄国商人的货品需求与销售价格,通过人为哄抬物价刺激俄国商品大量运入,再突然压低价格。章程明文建议以宴请馈赠方式笼络俄商,在觥筹交错间套取商业机密,违者将受严惩——这等于是将工业间谍与内幕交易写进了官方文件!

茶企的盈利能力更多地依赖于俄帝国内部的高定价,而不是利润丰厚的国际贸易。平均而言,买家以3至10倍的价格购买茶叶。

img

(十七世纪的商人家庭,1896 年,安德烈·里亚布什金)

据20世纪末伊尔库茨克出版的《西伯利亚历史大事年表》记载,早在1638年,贵族之子瓦西里·斯塔尔科夫作为使节出访蒙古,返程时首次将茶叶作为汗王赠礼带入莫斯科。

尽管俄罗斯人最初将茶称为"空洞的饮品",甚至难以想象它会比传统克瓦斯更受欢迎,但俄帝国茶叶销量始终坚挺。谢德林在《外省散记》中写道:"看起来不过是杯清茶!可要是中国人断了这玩意,咱们这儿准得乱套"。

img

(中国茶叶商队在俄罗斯西伯利亚前进,摘自《伦敦新闻画报》,第 2731 期,1891 年 8 月 22 日)

19世纪中叶,茶叶成为俄罗斯的主要进口商品。马克思在1857年《纽约每日论坛报》头版上惊讶地指出:“以前恰克图的茶叶年平均销量不超过10万箱,而到1852年已达175万箱,商品总价超过1500万美元。”

茶商本人极少亲自采购茶叶。他们将交易委托给常驻恰克图的佣金代理人。这些代理人通过信贷或东家的资金,在俄罗斯采购工业品,将其运至恰克图换取中国茶叶,再通过陆路将茶叶运往俄罗斯集市或经西伯利亚转运欧洲。售出茶叶后,代理人需偿还债务并向茶商汇报。

img

(喝茶,1914 年,康斯坦丁·马科夫斯基,乌里扬诺夫斯克地区艺术博物馆)

代理人或许损害了东家的信誉,或许勉强保本,但雇主既不要账簿也不要凭证,全凭口头信任。代理人收取茶商的贿赂、以跳楼价抛售俄国商品,或完全放弃议价的情况屡见不鲜。但茶叶大亨对代理人造成的财务损失漠不关心。因为,茶叶需求持续增长,利润不仅能支付中间商佣金、抵消不利的兑换条件和物流成本,甚至足以支撑奢靡宴会。往返恰克图的商道危机四伏,对商人而言,承受些微损失远比丧命划算。途中可能遭遇劫匪…甚至同伴背叛。

img

(阿列克谢伊奇,1884 康斯坦丁·马科夫斯基,特列季亚科夫画廊)

随着1862年中国开放海港与苏伊士运河通航,俄国开始通过海路进口茶叶。经敖德萨绕开亚洲的运输路线更具成本优势,导致恰克图茶叶交易量腰斩。海关迁至伊尔库茨克后,恰克图的官员与商人陆续撤离。

茶商们从恰克图转战新兴城市开拓事业,同时将饮茶习俗传遍俄罗斯。自此,俄国人对茶的热爱从未消退,至今仍在每个家庭的茶炊中延续着这份跨越三个世纪的情怀。

‘Don’t Need a Deal’: Top Trump Economic Adviser Is All In on His China Hardball

10 May 2025 at 23:33
In a wide-ranging interview, Stephen Miran, the chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said, “Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean anything greater for the long term.”

© Brendan Smialowski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Stephen Miran is President Trump’s top economic adviser.

Another Casualty of the Trade Wars? Burgers Made With Brazilian Beef

10 May 2025 at 17:00
Americans are eating record amounts of Brazilian beef. Now, tariffs and trade wars could push up U.S. prices and send more of it to China.

© Francesco Tonelli for The New York Times

Hamburger patties grilled in American backyard barbecues and fast-food restaurants are often a blend of ground beef, both homegrown and imported from other countries, especially Brazil.

Elizabeth Holmes’s Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Start-Up

10 May 2025 at 23:16
Billy Evans has two children with the Theranos founder, who is in prison for fraud. He’s now trying to raise money for a testing company that promises “human health optimization.”

© Philip Cheung for The New York Times

Billy Evans with his partner, Elizabeth Holmes, at their home in 2023.

After Allegations, Smokey Robinson Show Goes On as Planned

10 May 2025 at 22:52
The 85-year-old Motown star performed for an adoring crowd and made no mention of the claims against him at his first concert since being named in a lawsuit.

© Annie Flanagan for The New York Times

Smokey Robinson performed at the Beau Rivage Resort & Casino in Biloxi, Miss., on Friday.

World Catholics See the First American Pope as Hardly American

10 May 2025 at 22:35
Catholics around the world were skeptical at first about an American pope. But Pope Leo XIV’s multicultural and multilingual identity has put them at ease.

© Marco Garro for The New York Times

Peruvians celebrating the election of Cardinal Robert Prevost as the new pope, in the city of Chiclayo, Peru, where he once served as bishop.

European leaders call Trump to discuss 30-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

10 May 2025 at 20:41
Getty Images (L-R) Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer, First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi, President of France Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz pose Getty Images
The leaders of Poland, the UK, France and Germany joined Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky (centre) in Kyiv

European leaders have called US President Donald Trump to discuss proposals for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from Monday while on a visit to Kyiv.

The call came after leaders of the so-called "coalition of the willing" held a meeting to discuss advancing peace talks.

The leaders of France, Germany, the UK and Poland were hosted in person by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, while others joined remotely.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the coalition backed a "full and unconditional" ceasefire - originally mooted by Trump - and that the EU was ready to "impose further biting sanctions" if it was broken.

The presence of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish PM Donald Tusk and new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Ukrainian capital was a symbolic response to the more than 20 leaders who joined Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday.

In a joint statement ahead of the visit, they said they "will stand in Kyiv in solidarity with Ukraine against Russia's barbaric and illegal full-scale invasion".

The leaders added: "Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace."

A 30-hour ceasefire, unilaterally called by Putin to mark Russia's Victory Day, is due to end on Saturday. It has seen a decrease in fighting but both sides have accused the other of breaches.

The "coalition of the willing" was formed to reinforce any eventual peace agreement with security guarantees, including the possibility of placing troops in Ukraine.

Trump earlier reiterated the call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire after a phone call with Zelensky.

"If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions," he wrote on social media.

As the meeting was going on, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was already "used to sanctions" and knew how to minimise their impact, adding: "There is no point in trying to scare us with these sanctions."

Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and now deputy head of Russia's Security Council, told the European allies to "shove these peace plans".

Other leaders who joined the meeting remotely included Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canadian PM Mark Carney, von der Leyen, and Mark Rutte, the secretary-general of Nato.

Reports of Russian attacks across Ukraine continue, despite Russia's claims of a temporary ceasefire.

In northern Sumy region, an 85-year-old woman was killed, three others were injured, 19 residential homes and 10 other buildings were destroyed or damaged, Ukrainian police said.

In Kostyantynivka, eastern Donetsk region, one person was injured and two apartment blocks caught fire after Russian attacks, Ukrainian state emergency service DSNS said.

And in the southern city of Kherson, a 58-year-old local resident sought medical help after being attacked by a Russian drone carrying explosives, the regional administration said.

Taylor Swift criticises Lively-Baldoni court summons

10 May 2025 at 19:47
Getty Images Taylor Swift, wearing a green velvet dress, walks with Blake Lively, wearing a black, red and orange jumper, at night in New York City in 2023.Getty Images
Taylor Swift and Blake Lively, seen here in 2023, have been close friends for many years

Taylor Swift's representatives have told the BBC she is being brought into a legal row between Justin Baldoni and Blake Lively to create "tabloid clickbait".

The 35-year-old singer was summoned to a US court after it was alleged she encouraged Baldoni to accept script re-writes by Lively for It Ends With Us, a film that both starred in and is the centre of a sexual harassment case.

Baldoni says he was invited to Lively's New York home in 2023 to discuss script changes, where Lively's husband, Ryan Reynolds, and Swift were there to serve as her "dragons".

Representatives for Swift said "she was not involved in any casting or creative decision" and "never saw an edit or made any notes on the film".

Lively, 37, sued Baldoni, 41, in December 2024, accusing him of sexual harassment and a smear campaign. Baldoni is counter-suing Lively and her husband, the actor Ryan Reynolds, on claims of civil extortion, defamation and invasion of privacy.

Lively and Baldoni have been locked in a dispute since the film, which is an adaption of a Colleen Hoover novel, was released last summer.

According to Baldoni, there were tensions over the 2023 re-write of the scene, at which he was surprised to find Reynolds and Swift present.

He alleges Lively wrote in a text to him: "If you ever get around to watching Game of Thrones, you'll appreciate that I'm Khaleesi, and like her, I happen to have a few dragons. For better or worse, but usually better. Because my dragons also protect those I fight for."

Baldoni says he responded supportively, writing: "I really love what you did. It really does help a lot. Makes it so much more fun and interesting. (And I would have felt that way without Ryan and Taylor).

"You really are a talent across the board. Really excited and grateful to do this together."

It is also alleged that Swift was involved in the casting of Isabela Ferrer in the film, who played a younger version of Lively's character, Lily Bloom.

Speaking at the New York premiere of It Ends With Us, Ferrer said: "She [Taylor Swift] was a helpful part of the audition, which I found out later when I got it, and that rocked my world."

But Swift's representatives said the only involvement she had in the film was permitting the use of her song, My Tears Ricochet, noting that she was among 20 artists featured in the film.

Swift "never set foot on the set of this movie, she was not involved in any casting or creative decisions, she did not score the film, [and] she never saw an edit or made any notes on the film", they said.

They added that Swift did not see It Ends With Us until "weeks after its release" as she was "travelling around the globe" on tour at the time.

The popstar's spokespeople argued that the subpoena "designed to use Taylor Swift's name to draw public interest by creating tabloid clickbait instead of focusing on the facts of the case".

德语媒体:美国正在自毁高科技霸主地位

10 May 2025 at 22:17
null 媒体看中国
2025-05-07T14:10:31.655Z
《新苏黎世报》:美国正在自毁其科技霸主地位。

(德国之声中文网)《人工智能扩散框架》5月15日生效后,美国芯片对世界大多数国家的出口都将受到限制。《新苏黎世报》发表评论称,美国捍卫自身高科技霸主地位的立场可以理解,但这种敌友不分的做法却只能起到适得其反的效果,最终会让中国从中受益。这篇题为《美国正在自毁科技霸权》的评论写道:

“科技是中美竞争的核心领域。这些最新举措的目的显然是要捍卫美国在科技领域的霸主地位,并同时遏制中国的发展。

然而,尽管特朗普的做法看似合乎逻辑,并符合其一贯的立场,但细究之下却错误百出。因为美国在科技领域霸主地位的基础,恰恰是数十个盟友对美国技术的广泛使用。AI芯片等美国技术令盟友们从中受益,同时也强化了美国技术的不可替代性。新的出口管制却对这一庞大生态系统提出了毫无理由的质疑。而只有当美国科技企业主导世界市场的时候,美国的科技霸主地位才能得到保障。特朗普的做法恰恰是对这一主导地位的削弱,而从中受益的则恰恰是中国。换言之,在就科技霸权展开的争夺战中,特朗普正在帮助中国从一名落后的挑战者,摇身一变成为势均力敌的竞争对手。

至迟从2018年开始,中美之间的科技战就已全面展开。当时的特朗普政府决定禁止中国获取生产芯片的高端设备,因为中国能够借助这些设备生产出用于人工智能和军事用途的高端芯片。一年之后,特朗普又对中国科技巨头华为发布了前所未有的出口禁令。”

《新苏黎世报》:美国扩大芯片出口管控范围,对中国利大于弊。

传统盟友也成了嫌疑对象

《新苏黎世报》评论指出,截至目前,上述禁运措施已经收到了明显的效果,中国造芯片大约还停留在西方2018年的技术水准,中国企业仍不具备生产最高端芯片的能力:

“然而,美国显然已不再满足于这一现状,因而进一步加大了管控范围。从美国人的行事逻辑来看,这一策略似乎看上去很果断坚决,也保持了其一贯性。但此举实际上给美国在世界各地的盟友以及美国本土的科技企业造成了巨大压力,最终也将损害美国的自身利益

美国的AI扩散框架(AI Diffusion Framework)是针对盟友而设计的。拜登在其总统任期结束前推出了该规定。就目前的局势而言,特朗普想必将会执行前任留下的这一框架。该法规的目标是严格控制美国AI技术的扩散,防止其流向如俄罗斯、伊朗或中国等国家。框架中列出了18个‘可信国家’,包括德国、法国、英国、日本、韩国和台湾等亲密盟友,但瑞士缺不在其列。对瑞士和其他一些未被列入可信名单的国家来说,5月15日之后进口美国芯片将变得异常困难。

通过《人工智能扩散框架》,美国将许多关系密切的盟友不加甄别的一律视为潜在嫌疑对象。美国人显然不相信瑞士当局有能力阻止美国芯片被转售到中国。瑞士以及其他所有‘不可信国家’,今后必须满足严苛的条件,才能继续不受限制地进口美国芯片。例如,他们必须向美国有关当局提供芯片最终用户的详细信息。至于有多少国家愿意且有能力遵守美国的上述规定,目前还无法断言。 

但另外一种可能性则是,一些国家在用完了美国的进口配额之后,会转而投向中国。因为在许多芯片领域,中国的华为已经完全可以替代美国的英伟达。这样一来,那些原本更希望依靠美国技术的国家,将会逐渐融入中国的AI生态系统。这将不可避免地提升中国在与美国的科技对抗中的地位。 ”

“两个芭比娃娃”政策

《南德意志报》发表评论称,美国总统特朗普的关税政策,正在让美国民众付出代价,美国的孩童也同样不能幸免。这位身家数亿的美国总统前不久曾表示,美国的孩子们不需要几十个玩偶和几百只彩笔,有两个布娃娃和五只彩笔就足够了:

去年七月,伦敦举行芭比娃娃展,庆祝“芭比”诞生65周年。

“特朗普‘两只布娃娃’政策的背后,实际上是他对其贸易政策失败的承认。毕竟美国的工厂几乎没有可能一夜之间就大幅提高产能,并以低廉价格为美国消费者生产出足够的布娃娃。这种情况很可能永远无法实现,毕竟美国既缺工厂,也缺工人。当然,问题并不仅局限于芭比娃娃,也同样涉及沙发、鞋子和智能手机等其他商品。 

最终为特朗普失败的贸易政策买单的,将是美国的消费者。就连特朗普本人现在也承认了这一点。美国民众现在必须学会节俭,但对美国这种立足消费的经济体来说,节俭恰恰意味着衰退。首当其冲的将是美国的最贫困群体,他们当中有很多是特朗普的支持者。对他们来说,节俭并非一种选择,而是无助的现实。毕竟,节俭与美国梦格格不入背道而驰。”

 

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黑噪音|中国要避免成为“工蜂”型经济

10 May 2025 at 20:51

最近,携程老总梁建章提出的“工蜂型经济模式”火了。

梁建章认为,在蜂群中,工蜂负责采集食物、哺育幼虫、构筑蜂巢。它们不辞辛苦,忙忙碌碌,却不能繁殖后代——这种生存状态神似韩国经济。

韩国这种“工蜂”经济的特点总结一下大概是这样:民众常年辛勤工作,向世界提供了大量的廉价工业品,他们的收入在满足日常需求外,更喜欢用于旅游等,却不愿意生育;即使选择生育,目标也是后代未来能跻身大企业,从而选择拼命“鸡娃”,但生得不多。

2024年,韩国生育率跌破0.72,再次刷新全球最低纪录。看上去只是一个数字,但它背后藏着一个国家的未来方向。

CDT 档案卡
标题:黑噪音|中国要避免成为“工蜂”型经济
作者:黑噪音
发表日期:2025.5.10
来源:微信公众号“黑噪音”
主题归类:低生育率
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

出生率不是国家强弱的终极指标,但它是一个社会是否还“能让人活下去”的直接信号。

曾经亚洲四小龙中最拼的韩国,今天却成了全球生育最低的国家。这不仅仅是人口学问题,更是社会系统全面失衡的表现。

而韩国的今天,是否就是中国的明天?

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年轻人不生娃,不是他们自主的选择,而是无路可走。

很多老一辈人看不懂年轻人的“不婚不育”。他们觉得是懒,是躺平,是不负责任。但真相其实是,越来越多年轻人不是“不愿意”,而是“生不起”。

韩国社会表面现代化,背后却极其保守和压抑。

你可能听说过“补习地狱”这个词,在韩国,这是常态。孩子放学后要接着上三四个小时的补习班,课表密不透风,一周七天几乎无休(当然,咱这儿也差不多)。

教育只是压力的一部分,更沉重的是住房。

首尔一套普通两居室的价格,折合人民币约400万元。而韩国年轻人毕业后年薪大约只有15万元人民币左右。别说买房,租房都得精打细算。房租、水电、交通、饮食,再加上养育一个孩子的教育和生活支出,几乎压垮所有人(当然,咱这儿房价收入比更夸张,即便在下跌之后)。

在这样的条件下,不结婚、不生娃,成了默认的出路。不是年轻人没有责任感,而是现实已经把他们逼到悬崖边。

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另外,女性生育则约等于退出职场,这是韩国残酷的潜规则。

很多韩国女性即使结了婚,也选择不生孩子。一位韩国妈妈在社交平台上说:“生完孩子那天,我的职业生涯就结束了。”

韩国对职场妈妈非常不友善。虽然法律上规定有产假,但在实际中,许多企业并不欢迎带娃女性回来继续上班。

大公司更倾向于不结婚、不生育的女性,甚至在面试中明里暗里询问婚育计划。职场歧视看不见,但依然真真实实存在着(咱这儿也一样……)。

于是,越来越多女性干脆做了选择——要么职业,要么家庭,两个都无法兼顾。

女人的困境,本质上是制度性的困境。

韩国还有一点令人感到恐惧:补贴和政策,挽不回年轻人的生活信心。

面对严重的人口危机,韩国政府也不是没反应。补贴、奖励、免费育儿服务都推出了。但他们没搞懂的是,问题并不在发多少钱,而在生活的基本结构已经扭曲了。

据韩国《中央日报》报道,按照2024年新政策,家中有1岁以下婴儿的父母每月可以获得100万韩元(约合5450元人民币)补贴,比去年增加30万韩元(1635元人民币);抚育1至2岁幼儿的父母,每月可得到50万韩元(2725元人民币)补贴,比去年增加15万韩元(818元人民币)。

此外,男女均可享有最多1年半的育儿假,可以分4次申请,在孩子满8岁前可随时使用。

然而,还是没用。

因为年轻人要的是一种可以预期的生活,而不是一时的补贴。他们知道,只要结构不变,今天的补助也会变成明天的成本。

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韩国的城市布局极度集中,全国人口超过一半都住在首尔圈,资源拥挤,房价飞涨,教育竞争无解。这是生育率下降的根本。

只要这些结构性的矛盾不变,发再多的钱也没用。

不光是韩国的问题——从“奋斗者”变成“工蜂”,东亚年轻人正在集体退出这场令人窒息的生存游戏。

过去几十年,韩国人是亚洲最拼命的民族之一。从“汉江奇迹”到三星、现代的崛起,背后都是一代代人艰苦奋斗的结果。

但如今,越来越多年轻人不想再继续这场“接力赛”了。他们用“工蜂”这个词形容自己。每天工作十小时以上,没有生活,也没有未来。赚来的钱不够生活,更别提结婚、生子。

曾经的奋斗有希望,如今的努力只换来疲惫。他们并不怕累,怕的是无意义的重复,成为被压榨的“社会耗材”而毫无价值尊严感。

选择不婚、不生,是一种集体性的沉默抗议。他们拒绝再为一个已经看不到出路的系统拼命。

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那么问题来了:中国会不会是下一个?

很多人看到韩国的困境,难免担忧中国会不会也走向同样的未来。

现实是,中国一些大城市的生育率已经低于韩国。2023年,北京、上海的生育率低于0.7,广州、深圳也差不多。而全国总和生育率也跌至1.0,出现60年来首次总人口负增长。

相比之下,中国体量大,还保有一些“缓冲带”。比如,二三线城市和县城的生活压力稍小,父母辈还愿意出钱、带娃。但这些优势能维持多久?更何况,小城市就业更难,房价还是很高。

最关键的问题在于,中国的年轻人对未来的信心正在迅速下滑。

当“努力也没用”成为普遍共识,整个社会的生育意愿自然会崩塌。

必须要注意到:生孩子不是数字,是年轻人对生活现状的投票。当教育模式越来越变态扭曲、当就业越来越卷而压榨不停、当工资不涨而生活成本却居高不下、当人们难以拥有足够的假期、当劣质有毒食品依然充斥着市场,谁还愿意生娃继续承受这一切?

很多政策制定者把生育率当成一个冷冰冰的数据。但对普通人而言,生孩子是对社会未来做出的“信任投票”。

只有人们觉得这个社会值得继续生活下去,你才会愿意传递生命。

但今天,越来越多年轻人不想做这个决定——不是他们不爱孩子,而是他们不接受这样的生活。

如果一个国家的年轻人普遍不愿生育,不该先去指责他们。更该反思的是,这个社会到底给了他们怎样的生活条件。

中国,正在“工蜂型社会”这条路上快速前进。

改变的时间窗口并不多。如果不真正从根本上去解决年轻人的生活焦虑,再多的补贴和鼓励都将沦为空谈。

“工蜂经济”这个比喻实在是太精妙了,感谢梁建章的勇敢发声。

但也要说个冷笑话:蜂群社会尽管有工蜂作为耗材,至少还有能够繁衍下去的一整套机制,而我们的社会呢?

Pope Leo XIV Outlines Path for Catholic Church That Follows in Francis’ Steps

10 May 2025 at 21:20
The new pope said he would be guided by a key document that his predecessor wrote listing the church’s priorities, including a “loving care for the least and the rejected.”

© Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times

Leo XIV, on Thursday, after he became pope. On Saturday, the pope said that advances in artificial intelligence would “pose new challenges for the defense of human dignity, justice and labor.”

Kwik Fit founder Sir Tom Farmer dies aged 84

10 May 2025 at 19:44
SNS Sir Tom Farmer standing in a football stand. he is wearing a greay coat and grey shirt and tieSNS
Sir Tom built the company into the world's biggest independent tyre and automotive chain

The founder of the Kwik Fit garage chain, Sir Tom Farmer, has died at the age of 84.

The Edinburgh-born businessman died peacefully at his home in the city on Friday, his family said.

He built the company into the world's biggest independent tyre and automotive chain, selling it to Ford for £1bn in 1999.

Sir Tom owned a majority stake in Hibernian FC for more than 20 years, selling his interest in the club in 2019.

Sir Tom was born in Leith in 1940 and first opened a tyre business in 1964.

He started Kwik Fit in 1971, eventually operating in more than 2,000 locations in 18 countries.

He was knighted in 1997 for his services to the automotive industry, and he was made a Commander of the Royal Victorian Order (CVO) in 2009.

A statement from his family said: "Sir Tom's long and extensive career touched many aspects of Scottish and UK life.

"His business career is well documented, as was his commitment to philanthropy, his many public roles and his unwavering support and appreciation for the communities and people that he lived his life within."

PA Media Sir Tom in dark suit and light tie holding up a bust of Andrew Carnegie. He is smiling.PA Media
Sir Tom was awarded the Carnegie Medal for his charitable work

Sir Tom's philanthropic work saw him awarded the Carnegie Medal and he became a Knight Commander with Star of the Order of St. Gregory the Great, an honour bestowed by the Pope, in 1997.

"Sir Tom's Roman Catholic faith was present throughout all areas of his life. He attended mass weekly in Edinburgh and enjoyed the friendship and company of many people with the Catholic community both here in Scotland and further afield," his family said.

"Sir Tom will be remembered by many for his deep commitment to his family, his work and his faith and for being at all times a proud Scotsman," they added.

Cardinal reveals what it was like to be part of conclave

10 May 2025 at 20:02
Getty Images Cardinal Vincent Nichols holds up his hand while walking along. Getty Images

Being sealed off from the world in the conclave to choose the new Pope was "immensely peaceful", England and Wales's most senior Roman Catholic has told the BBC.

Cardinal Vincent Nichols, leader of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales, was one of 133 cardinals who were shut into the Vatican's Sistine Chapel and later elected Pope Leo XIV on Thursday.

He told BBC Breakfast on Saturday that nobody in the highly-secretive meeting was saying who to vote for or who to not vote for, adding that there was "no rancour" or "politicking" among the cardinals.

"It was a much calmer process than that and I found it actually a rather wonderful experience," he added.

Conclaves have take place in the Sistine Chapel since the 15th Century and cardinals must have no communication with the outside world until a new Pope is elected. The recent conclave came after the death of Pope Francis on 21 April.

The 79-year-old Cardinal Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, said that his mobile phone was taken off him, adding that he found he had "more time on my hands just to be prayerful, just to reflect, just to be still, rather than being constantly agitated... or prompted by what might be coming in" on his phone.

"For me, one of the experiences of these last few days was to learn a bit of patience, to just take this step by step," he said.

"There was a calmness, a bit of solemnity," he continued, adding that everyone he spoke to when in it was "peaceful and just wanting to do this well".

Cardinal Vincent Nichols looks at the camera.
Cardinal Nichols spoke to BBC Breakfast on Saturday about the conclave

There is no timescale on how long it takes for a conclave to elect a new Pope, with previous ones in 2005 and 2013 lasting two days. The conclave that elected Pope Leo lasted for one day.

"I think it was a short conclave in part because Pope Francis left us with a good inheritance," the cardinal said.

"He left a college of cardinals who were dedicated, who had this desire for the church to be more missionary, and that led us forward actually very, very easily to the decision that we made."

Pope Leo will be formally inaugurated at a mass in St Peter's Square on 18 May, which delegations from countries around the world will attend.

The Duke of Edinburgh, Prince Edward, will attend on behalf of King Charles, Buckingham Palace confirmed on Saturday.

Speaking about the new Pope, Cardinal Nichols said Pope Leo is "very decisive" in a "quiet way", adding that he has seen him "make decisions which disappoint people but don't destroy them".

"A good thing about a pope is if he's able to say, 'No', to you when he thinks something is not right and then give you a hug so you don't go away offended, and I think he's got that ability to do both those things, which is very important."

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