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Today — 8 May 2025News

文革系列(133):毛林剑拔弩张

By: 孙诚
8 May 2025 at 21:37

一、中共九大投票的玄机

大家好,欢迎大家收听《纵横大历史》,我是主持人孙诚。今天,我们将继续进行文革历史系列节目。

在上一讲中,我们谈到了毛泽东和林彪围绕起草中共九大政治报告问题,所产生的明争暗斗。这场争斗,以毛泽东否定了林彪、陈伯达推出的强调“经济建设”的政治报告,采用了张春桥、姚文元起草的以“阶级斗争”为中心的报告告终。在1969年4月的中共九大会场上,不满的林彪面无表情地宣读了张、姚二人的那份报告,相当得意的毛泽东则是阴阳怪气地询问全场“林彪同志所作的政治报告,赞成不赞成啊”,并引发了整个会场手举红宝书的表忠。不过,林彪也不会咽下这个哑巴亏。1969年4月24日是中共九大的最后一天,这天,林彪展开了反击。

这天的会议上,中共进行了历来都是走过场的投票环节,推出中共中央委员,当时在会场上的代表共有1510人。如往常一样,毛泽东毫无悬念地获得全票通过,这表示毛泽东也给自己投了一票。周恩来获得了1509票,这是因为他没有投给自己。林彪得了1508票,这是因为林彪觉得自己的票数不能和毛泽东平起平坐,所以他和他的妻子叶群给自己投了反对票。而令人意外的是,江青只拿到了1502票,少了8票。至于另三个当红毛派大将康生、张春桥、姚文元,则更是只有1490多票。

对于这个投票结果,江青非常之不满。根据林系干将吴法宪的回忆,在投票结束后,曾有过这样一段事情:

“江青的选票不仅落后于叶群,也落后于黄永胜、我、李作鹏、邱会作等。这一下,江青、康生、张春桥、姚文元的脸色都变了,康生的脸色甚至比江青的还要难看。在大家来到江苏厅休息的时候,江青起哄了,大发雷霆,对我们喊道:‘你们的选票比我们的多呀!你们军委办事组的人威信高,老娘得票比你们少得多,难道你们对‘文化大革命’的贡献比我还大吗?’对她的挑衅,我们大家默不作声。“康生这个人向来比较鬼,对选举结果发生了怀疑。于是,他和江青就派中组部的郭玉峰来大会秘书处查选票。他要郭玉峰先查主席台上的选票,再查各个大区的选票,要查清楚究竟是哪个代表团少投了他们的票。”

事实上,这样的投票结果之所以会出现,背后确实是因为林彪系人马的大力活动。根据吴法宪的回忆,事情的原委是这样的:

“在选举之前,一次叶群在同我们闲谈时说:‘林总讲,现在江青太猖狂了。张春桥、姚文元过去都是榜上无名的小卒,现在的威望都这样高,看来当选中央委员是没有问题的,但是要使他们的选票少几张,不能让他们得全票,以杀一杀他们的锐气。’“陈伯达接着说:‘张春桥在上海不过是个小瘪三。’黄永胜也说:‘张春桥看不起我们,一次在机场公开说我们是大老粗,我当场回敬了他一句,说你在晋察冀不过是一个小记者。’在这以后,我们按照叶群传达的意思作了安排和布置,指定军队有的人在选举时不投江青等人的票。”

根据吴法宪的回忆,在康生和江青试图弄清楚是谁没有给他们投票后,事情传到了吴法宪和周恩来耳中,两人都表示这样做违反了中共党章,其后周恩来把事情告诉了毛泽东,毛泽东对此没有说话,事情就此不了了之。不过,吴法宪也在他的回忆录中谈到,他们忽略了一个重要的方面,就是江青在这类问题上一直在和毛泽东通气,是毛泽东站在江青身后。可以说,尽管事情不了了之了,但这件事实际上加重了毛泽东对林彪的敌意。

(以上内容见吴法宪回忆录第十二章第四节)

总而言之,在一片视投票为儿戏的闹剧中,中共九大推出了170名中共中央委员和109名中共中央候补委员,共计279人。其中,只有53人是上一届的中共中央委员或候补委员,有多达136人是军队干部,有90人是所谓“群众组织”的代表。这一格局,反映了以林彪为代表的军方势力的膨胀。此外,随着林彪在中共九大通过的新中共党章里正式成了毛泽东的“接班人”,以及林彪在投票问题上狠狠敲打了一番毛派,林彪的势头比以前要更盛。在这之后,他很快就做出了更大的动作。

二、林彪的“第一个号令”

当时,中共与苏共的关系已经跌到了谷底。1969年3月和8月,苏中两军在珍宝岛、铁列克提相继发生武装冲突,双方互有死伤,进入了大规模战争的边缘。9月11日,周恩来与和苏联部长会议主席柯西金在北京机场进行了会谈,使双方的关系有所缓和。

不过,中共高层继续着备战,在这年10月1日之后向各地疏散,其中毛泽东跑到了武汉,林彪跑到了苏州。10月17日,林彪向中共军队下达了一份文件,名为《林副主席第一个号令》。根据毛泽东的“大内总管”汪东兴的回忆,这一文件的要点为“一是抓紧反坦克武器的生产;二是组织战时指挥部,进入临战状态;三是各级领导加强战备值班;四是严密注视中苏边境的形势及时掌握情况,随时报告。”10月18日,时任中共军队总参谋长的黄永胜将这一命令下达到了中共全军。根据汪东兴的说法,林彪是在10月19日才采用电话记录的方式,以急件传阅将这个文件报给了毛泽东。汪东兴回忆当时的情形说:

“我拿此急件送给主席看,毛主席看后,一脸不高兴的样子,对我说:‘烧掉。’我以为主席是让我拿去烧了,还没等我反应过来,主席自己拿起火柴一划,把传阅件点着,给烧了。接着,他又拿起传阅件的信封又要烧,我赶紧对主席说:‘主席,不能烧,你都烧了,以后查问起来,我无法交代。留下这个信封上面还有传阅件的编号,你不要烧了。’”

(以上内容原载于汪东兴回忆,亦见于1998年9月21日出版的《华夏文摘》增刊第156期)

按照汪东兴的说法,林彪是绕开了毛泽东自作主张地下了这个命令。不过,对于这件事的真相,直到目前仍有不少争议。根据林彪的秘书张云生的说法,这个命令在10月18日下达的当天,叶群就已表示将它的内容告诉毛泽东。在这之后,这个文件才由黄永胜向中共全军下达。吴法宪的回忆录也表示,毛泽东曾通过汪东兴给叶群打电话,表示他对林彪的命令没什么意见。可以说,对这件事各执一词的双方,必然有一方说的是完全的假话。但在相关档案解密之前,我们也很难知道真相了。但无论如何,这件事都显示了林彪在军队中的强劲实力,也引起了毛泽东对林彪的进一步猜疑。根据文革史学者萧象的总结,这件事背后的逻辑是这样的:

“在权力高度集中的封闭社会,当一、二把手关系已有间隙,一把手对二把手多有戒备和猜疑的敏感时期,任何来自二把手与属下的动静尤其是不慎,都会引起一把手的(强烈)反应与(深度)怀疑。毫无疑问,林彪的‘一号号令’进一步加深了毛对林的猜忌,也加大了毛林之间的裂痕。在毛泽东看来,林彪势力尾大不掉,已是到了需要抑制与削弱的时候了。”

(萧象:《再探林彪的“一号号令”》,爱思想网,2021年10月30日)

三、中国国家主席的存废,点燃毛林直接冲突

于是,随着毛林关系的裂痕越来越大,双方的直接冲突很快就点燃了。双方直接爆发冲突的节点,是1970年8月23日至9月6日的庐山会议。

这次庐山会议的正式名称,是中共九届二中全会。会议的原本议程,是中共中央聚集在度假胜地庐山,讨论召开四届人大、修改宪法的问题。在这之前的第三届人大,是在1964年12月召开的,按照中共的规定,理论上人大这个橡皮图章应该是五年一开。不过,由于文革爆发,新一届人大的召开一拖再拖。毛泽东也需要召开人大修改宪法,从而在宪法层面巩固他通过文革造成的政治路线。不过,这次会议实际上却是离题万里,变成了毛派和林系人马的正面冲突。至于冲突的引爆点,看上去也是一个似乎无关紧要的问题,那就是要不要设置中国国家主席这个职务。

在文革前,长期担任中国国家主席职务的人是刘少奇。在以党治国的中共体制下,国家主席这个职务实际上礼仪性质大于实质。在刘少奇倒台后,代理这一职务的人是80多岁的中共元老董必武。由于这一职务需要处理种种繁琐的礼仪事务,不耐繁剧的毛泽东对它没什么兴趣,但这时候董必武年纪也很大了,很难继续胜任下去。于是,要不要继续设立这个职务,就成了一个问题。在文革前,刘少奇既是毛泽东的接班人,又是中国国家主席,这个职务实际上是对“接班人”地位的又一层保障。按照之前的逻辑,新一任中国国家主席应该是已经有了“接班人”头衔的林彪。不过,对林彪已经有了很强猜忌心理的毛泽东却另有考虑。

1970年3月,周恩来致信毛泽东,向他报告了新宪法草案,毛泽东则明确表示不再设立国家主席。这个月的16号,中共中央政治局又就修宪问题给毛泽东写了请示报告,毛泽东则再次表示不设立国家主席。另一方面,身处苏州的林彪在通过周恩来得知了毛泽东的看法后,于3月9日通过叶群告诉林系干将黄永胜、吴法宪,表示他赞成设立国家主席。于是,在3月17—20日的中共中央工作会议上,黄永胜、吴法宪就高调地坚持应该设立国家主席,并引发了激烈的争吵。毛泽东得知这件事后,又再次表示不要设立国家主席、他自己也不想当国家主席。在这之后,林彪又通过秘书转告毛泽东,表示他建议毛泽东当国家主席,毛泽东则没有理睬这一提议。4月11日,林彪又一次向中共中央政治局表示,他建议由毛泽东担任国家主席。12日,周恩来主持的中共中央政治局会议同意了林彪的提议,随后再次被毛泽东否决。

然而,这一切还只是前哨战。随着庐山会议的临近,更大规模的冲突猛烈爆发了。

感谢大家,这个星期就讲到这里。

© AP

毛泽东(右)与他的“亲密战友”林彪交谈。

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In Israel’s Demolition Path, West Bank Residents Pack Up Their Lives

8 May 2025 at 21:23
A monthslong Israeli military operation in the northern West Bank has displaced tens of thousands of people. Some are now learning they may not return.

© Nasser Nasser/Associated Press

Ukraine labels Russian ceasefire a farce after reports of hundreds of violations

8 May 2025 at 19:28
DSNS Ukraine Three buildings damaged in UkraineDSNS Ukraine
Emergency services in the town of Bilopillia in Sumy said one civilian died in an early morning Russian attack

Russia's unilateral, three-day ceasefire has proved to be a farce because of continued attacks across the front line, Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, has said.

He accused Russia of 734 violations since its truce came into effect overnight into Thursday, adding that Ukraine was responding "appropriately" to every attack.

Russia's defence ministry insisted the ceasefire - called by Vladimir Putin to mark World War Two Victory Day - was being observed and accused Ukraine of 488 violations.

At least one person was killed in Ukraine's northern Sumy region following Russian strikes, according to emergency services.

Ukraine's air force said there had been no drone or missile strikes in its airspace overnight as of 08:00 (05:00 GMT) on Thursday, although Russia had intensified strikes using air-launched glide bombs in the Sumy area.

Buildings were hit in a residential area of Bilopillia, a town in Sumy just south of the Russian border. Rescuers freed a woman trapped under the rubble, emergency services said.

Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Trehubov said there had also been Russian military assaults in several eastern areas after the Russian ceasefire officially came into force at midnight Moscow time (21:00 GMT on Wednesday).

Kyiv has rejected Russia's truce, with Volodymyr Zelensky calling it a "theatrical show" designed to protect the Moscow Victory Day parade on Friday. The Ukrainian president has reiterated calls for a longer truce of at least 30 days.

A temporary 30-hour ceasefire was announced by the Kremlin over Easter which saw a decrease in fighting but claims of hundreds of breaches from both sides.

The Kremlin has described its pause as a "test of Ukraine's readiness for peace", although Putin earlier rejected a joint US-Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional ceasefire.

Russia's defence ministry said all groups of Russian forces in Ukraine had "completely ceased combat operations and remained on the previously occupied lines and positions". However, they were reacting in a "mirror-like manner" to violations by Ukrainian forces.

Reacting to the bombardment of the Sumy region, Sviatoslav Yurash, a Ukrainian MP and serving soldier, accused Moscow of lying.

"We don't want a peace that breaks apart in no time, and Russia takes another attempt to try and kill us and destroy us," he told the BBC.

Sergey Sanovich of Stanford University told the BBC the Russian truce was not meant as a gesture of goodwill to Ukrainians but rather to maintain interest in peace talks with the US.

Since his inauguration in January, President Donald Trump has sought to end the war in Ukraine by mediating with both parties - but he has been accused of trying to pressure Ukraine into making painful concessions to secure a peace deal.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, and currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, including the southern Crimea peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.

For three consecutive days ahead of Russia's proposed truce, Kyiv and Moscow exchanged a barrage of strikes.

The Russian defence ministry said on Wednesday that 524 Ukrainian drones had been destroyed over the past 24 hours - a record number if confirmed. No casualties were reported but flights at Russian airports were suspended, causing disruption to some 60,000 passengers.

Sergey Sanovich told the BBC the Ukrainian drone strikes were an indication that Kyiv was not interested in "peace out of desperation".

On the eve of Victory Day in Moscow, China's Xi Jinping met Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin to sign an updated investment deal. Xi said the two countries' ties had injected "positive energy" into a world in turmoil.

The Chinese president is one of a reported 27 leaders due to attend Russia's commemorations in Moscow's Red Square.

Ahead of the event, Ukraine warned it could not guarantee the safety of anyone attending the parade.

Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, told the BBC that "Russia is seriously concerned about the possibility of attack by Ukrainian drones".

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian military and special services were taking "all necessary measures" to ensure the celebration takes place "in a calm, stable and peaceful atmosphere," including jamming mobile internet connections ahead of the parade.

Unlike Russia, the rest of Europe celebrates Victory in Europe (VE) Day on 8 May. Commemorations this year mark the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Zelensky released a video address on Thursday, where he was seen walking through central Kyiv and paying his respects to fallen Ukrainian soldiers at a large display of Ukrainian flags.

He said Ukraine was marking Victory Day along with all those who had fought to ensure evil would lose and and would be "never again".

"Unfortunately, three years ago, it happened again and just like before the air raid siren roared over Kyiv," he said.

Deriding Russia's celebration as a "parade of cynicism", he warned that evil had to be fought "resolutely, with force".

Israel PM 'uncertain' over condition of three Gaza hostages

8 May 2025 at 18:47
Reuters Israeli hostages' relatives and their supporters protest in Jerusalem (5 May 2025)Reuters
Hostages' families have urged Israel's prime minister to agree another deal with Hamas rather than expand the Gaza offensive

Israel's prime minister has said there is "uncertainty" about the condition of three of 24 hostages previously believed to be alive in Hamas captivity in Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu said he knew "with certainty" that 21 hostages were alive but the status of "three more" was unclear.

His comments came after US President Donald Trump said 24 hostages were alive a week ago but the figure was now 21. He made the comments while speaking at an event at the White House on Tuesday and did not cite a source or provide further details.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum had demanded information.

The forum also urged Netanyahu to halt his plans to expand Israel's offensive in Gaza and to instead agree a deal with Hamas to return its remaining 59 living and dead hostages.

A spokesperson called on the prime minister "to stop the war until the return of the last abductee", adding: "This is the most urgent and important national task."

Speaking in a video on Wednesday following Trump's remarks, Netanyahu said: "We know with certainty that 21 hostages are alive. There are three more regarding whom there's uncertainty about whether they are alive."

Last week, Netanyahu said rescuing hostages was a "very important goal" of the war, but that "the supreme goal is to achieve victory over our enemies".

Israel's chief military spokesman Brig-Gen Effie Defrin appeared to contradict the prime minister on Monday when he stated: "The objective of the operation is the return of our hostages, the dismantling and decisive defeat of the Hamas regime."

Despite that statement, Israel's Haaretz newspaper reports that the military's chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, presented operational orders to commanders this week that put "returning the hostages" bottom of a six-point list, with "defeating Hamas" at the top.

Israeli officials have said the plans for the expanded offensive include seizing all of the territory indefinitely, forcibly displacing Palestinians to the south, and taking over aid distribution with private companies despite protests from the UN and its humanitarian partners.

About 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage during the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which triggered the Gaza war.

Another four people, two of them dead, were already being held captive in Gaza before the conflict.

So far, Israel has secured the return of 196 hostages, 147 of them alive, mostly through two temporary ceasefire deals with Hamas.

At least 52,653 people have been killed in Gaza during the war, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

More than 2,500 have died since Israel ended a two-month ceasefire on 18 March and resumed its offensive, saying it wanted to put pressure on Hamas to release hostages.

Israel has also blocked all deliveries of humanitarian aid and other supplies for nine weeks, which the UN says has caused severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel.

Smokey Robinson denies sexual assault allegations

8 May 2025 at 16:06
Getty Images Smokey RobinsonGetty Images
Smokey Robinson was vice president of Motown Records and has worked with everyone from Diana Ross and Dolly Parton to Elton John and Gary Barlow

Motown legend Smokey Robinson has denied allegations of sexual assault that were made by several former employees.

In a lawsuit filed on Tuesday, four female housekeepers accused the singer-songwriter of sexual battery including rape, plus false imprisonment and a number of labour violations.

In a statement to the BBC, Robinson's lawyer Christopher Frost called the allegations "vile" and "false".

"As this case progresses, the evidence (the crucial element that guides us) will show that this is simply an ugly method of trying to extract money from an 85-year-old American icon - $50 million, to be exact," he said.

Robinson was Motown's first hitmaker, writing number one hits like Mary Wells' My Guy and the Temptations' My Girl.

He was both a talent scout for the record label and one of its most prominent recording artists in his own right, known for songs like Tracks of My Tears, Shop Around and Tears of a Clown.

He has spots in both the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Halls of Fame, and claims to have credits on more than 4,000 songs.

Getty Images Smokey Robinson and his wife Frances Getty Images
Robinson and his wife Frances deny the allegations against them

His second wife, Frances, was also named in Tuesday's lawsuit, which claimed she contributed to a hostile work environment and failed to stop Robinson's alleged sexual misconduct.

The women are suing under the pseudonyms Jane Doe 1, 2, 3 and 4, due to the sexual misconduct allegations, including rape, being levelled against the musician.

In the 27-page lawsuit they detail several incidents dating back to 2006 and allege they were pressured into sex.

All four women, who are of Hispanic descent, said they had not come forward until now because they feared losing their livelihood, familial reprisal or embarrassment. Some were concerned the allegations could affect their immigration status.

They are seeking at least $50m in damages and a jury trial.

No police reports or criminal charges have been filed against the musician.

The women's lawyers held a press conference on Tuesday, accusing Robinson of being a "serial and sick rapist" who "must be stopped".

This drew the ire of the Robinson's legal team, who called it a "bizarre" attempt "to enlist the public as an unwitting participant in the media circus they are trying to create".

"We will have more to say in the coming days as we make our legal response, and in time Mr Robinson will respond in his own words," Mr Frost said.

"We ask anyone following this case to reserve judgment as the evidence comes to light and all the actual facts of the case unfold.

"We will be asking the Court to dismiss the lawsuit. We will also be asking the Court to address that in their statements to the press about Mr Robinson, the plaintiff's attorneys have reached beyond the bounds of liberties that even lawyers are typically allowed in this context."

Dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters arrested at Columbia University

8 May 2025 at 20:28
Watch: Moment protesters storm into Columbia University library

New York police have arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters after they occupied part of the main library at Columbia University on Wednesday.

Two university security officers were injured when protesters forced their way into Butler Library on Wednesday, according to a statement from University President Claire Shipman, who called their actions "outrageous".

Video posted on social media showed chanting protesters entering the library, many wearing keffiyeh headscarves and masks, defying a ban imposed by the Trump administration.

Mrs Shipman said she asked the NYPD for assistance, and added that many of the protesters were not students.

More than 70 protesters were arrested by the police, Columbia Spectator, a campus newspaper, reported.

"At the direct request of Columbia University, the NYPD is responding to an ongoing situation on campus where individuals have occupied a library and are trespassing," the NYPD posted on X.

Videos of the protests showed protesters vandalising bookshelves by writing "free Palestine".

Another clip showed public safety officers blocking the library door's exit and asking those inside to show their Columbia IDs or face arrest, which led to an hours- long standoff.

Columbia's president said that while the protest was isolated to one room in the library, "it is completely unacceptable that some individuals are choosing to disrupt academic activities as our students are studying and preparing for final exams".

Mrs Shipman, who took over the role in March after the previous president resigned, asked students to stay away from the library.

"We will not tolerate hate or violence in any form in our city," New York City Mayor Eric Adams said in a post on X.

In a post on social media, the protestors accused the university of "violent repression" and said that they had refused to show their IDs to police and campus public safety officers.

It marks the first time that Columbia University has called the NYPD for an on-campus protest since April 2024, when pro-Palestinian protesters occupied Hamilton Hall for nearly 24 hours.

Getty Images Crowds of protesters outside the Butler Library. Some protesters are wearing keffiyeh headscarves and masksGetty Images
Crowds of protesters grew as a standoff with security and a group calling themselves "Columbia University Apartheid Divest" at the library continued into the evening

Columbia has drawn ire from US President Donald Trump, who claims many universities have tolerated antisemitism and harassment of Jewish students.

Trump has already threatened to withhold some $400m (£309m) in federal funding for Columbia, as his administration continues to target those involved in previous campus protests with deportation.

In March, Columbia agreed to several demands from the Trump administration, including a ban on face masks at protests and a change in oversight of some academic programmes, after the administration said it planned to withhold millions in federal funds.

It is unclear whether the funds will be reinstated, though a lawsuit was filed by some of the faculty members over the cuts.

The New York college was the epicentre of pro-Palestinian protests against the war in Gaza and US support for Israel on college campuses last year.

On Tuesday, Trump also terminated $2.2 billion in taxpayer funds to Harvard University after ordering a review of its federal financing.

The Trump administration has warned 60 universities that funding may be cancelled if allegations of antisemitism on campuses are not addressed.

Sotheby's halts Buddha jewels auction after India threat

8 May 2025 at 14:37
Reuters The image shows an billboard advertising the sale of the Buddha jewels, which are shown arranged in a circle. They come in a range of colours, and some are shaped like flowers. Reuters
A screen displays an image of the Piprahwa gems at the auction house Sotheby's in Hong Kong.

The auction house Sotheby's has postponed its sale in Hong Kong of hundreds of sacred jewels linked to the Buddha's remains, after a threat of legal action by the Indian government.

The sale of the collection - described as one of the most astonishing archaeological finds of the modern era - had drawn criticism from Buddhist academics and monastic leaders. India had said it offended the global Buddhist community.

Sotheby's said the suspension would allow for discussions between the parties.

A British official named William Claxton Peppé unearthed the relics in northern India nearly 130 years ago, alongside bone fragments identified as belonging to the Buddha himself.

The auction of the collection, known as the Piprahwa Gems of the Historical Buddha Mauryan Empire, Ashokan Era, circa 240-200 BCE, was due to take place on 7 May.

In a letter to the auction house two days earlier, the Indian government said that the relics constituted "inalienable religious and cultural heritage of India and the global Buddhist community. Their sale violates Indian and international laws, as well as United Nations conventions".

A high-level Indian government delegation then held discussions with Sotheby's representatives on Tuesday.

In an emailed statement, Sotheby's said that in light of the matters raised by India's government "and with the agreement of the consignors, the auction ... has been postponed".

It said updates on the discussions would be shared "as appropriate".

Notice of the gems sale had been removed from its auction house by Wednesday and the website page promoting the auction is no longer available.

William Claxton Peppé was an English estate manager who excavated a stupa at Piprahwa, just south of Lumbini, the believed birthplace of Buddha. He uncovered relics inscribed and consecrated nearly 2,000 years ago.

The findings included nearly 1,800 gems, including rubies, topaz, sapphires and patterned gold sheets, stored inside a brick chamber. This site is now in the state of Uttar Pradesh.

Sotheby's had said in February that the 1898 discovery ranked "among the most extraordinary archaeological discoveries of all time".

Men found guilty of violent murder of Aboriginal schoolboy

8 May 2025 at 13:54

Warning: This article contains the name and images of an Indigenous person who has died. His family has given permission to use his name and image.

Mechelle Turvey Mechelle Turvey and her son CassiusMechelle Turvey
Cassius Turvey's death sparked protests and vigils across Australia

Two men have been found guilty of the murder of Cassius Turvey, an Aboriginal schoolboy who was chased down by a vigilante gang and beaten, in a case which outraged Australia.

The 15-year-old Noongar Yamatji boy died of head injuries in October 2022, 10 days after he was brutally assaulted on the outskirts of Perth - prompting vigils and protests nationwide.

Four people were charged with his murder and Jack Steven James Brearley, 24, and Brodie Lee Palmer, 29, were on Thursday found guilty after a 12-week trial.

Mitchell Colin Forth, 27, was instead found guilty of manslaughter, and a woman who was with the trio in the moments before the attack was acquitted.

Speaking outside court, Cassius' mum Mechelle Turvey said she was "numb with relief" at the verdict after "three months of hell".

But she added that "justice, to me, will never be served because I don't have my son, and he's not coming back".

The trial was told the attack on Cassius was the culmination of a complex series of tit-for-tat events "that had absolutely nothing to do with him", according to the Australian Associated Press.

The group had been "hunting for kids" because somebody had damaged Brearley's car windows, prosecutors said.

"Somebody smashed my car, they're about to die," Brearley was heard saying on CCTV footage captured shortly before the incident and played to the court.

There is no suggestion Cassius had any involvement in what happened to the car, but he was among a throng of kids who were confronted by the trio of men while walking along a suburban street after school.

A boy on crutches was assaulted, sending the others scattering through nearby bushland to escape.

Prosecutors alleged the trio caught Cassius and knocked him to the ground, where he was hit on the head at least twice with a short metal pole, leaving him with a brain bleed.

In the days after the attack, Cassius underwent surgeries in hospital, aimed at relieving the pressure on his brain and saving his life. Meanwhile, Brearley was caught on camera boasting about beating the child.

"He was laying in the field and I was just smacking him with a trolley pole so hard, he learnt his lesson," he was heard saying on a phone call played at the trial, according to a report by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Brearley told the court his assault on Cassius was self-defence, and claimed it was Palmer who had hit him with the metal pole. Palmer said the opposite, blaming Brearley.

Ultimately the jury found both responsible for his murder, and Forth guilty of manslaughter.

The men are due to return to court for sentencing hearing on 26 June.

Outside court, Mrs Turvey embarked on a list of thank yous, including for the trial witnesses, most of whom were "young children that are scarred for life".

"I'd like to thank all of Australia, people that know us, for all of their love and support," she added.

Cassius remembered as 'funny' and kind

EPA Mechelle Turvey, the mother of Cassius Turvey, takes part in a smoking ceremony during a vigil for her son Cassius TurveyEPA
Mechelle Turvey taking part in a smoking ceremony during a vigil for her son

Speaking to the BBC the month after his death, Mrs Turvey said her son was beloved in the local community.

Along with two of his friends, he had set up a small business in order to reach out to neighbours and mow lawns. He wanted to change the negative stereotypes about Aboriginal youth in Australia.

"He was funny. He loved posing," Mechelle Turvey said, showing photos of Cassius smiling.

His killing in 2022 sparked national grief and anger. Thousands of people attended vigils for Cassius in more than two dozen places across the country, with events also being held in the US and New Zealand.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese claimed the attack was "clearly" racially motivated - though this was not advanced as a motive in court - and it reopened a national debate about racial discrimination.

"Australia does have a shocking reputation around the world for this kind of violence," Human rights lawyer Hannah McGlade told the BBC at the time.

US judge blocks plan to deport migrants to Libya

8 May 2025 at 17:04
Bloomberg via Getty Images A person's hands are seen handcuffed behind their back.Bloomberg via Getty Images
Donald Trump promised voters "mass deportations"

A US judge in Boston ordered a temporary block on the Trump administration's plan to deport migrants to Libya, saying it would "clearly violate" a prior order he made that ensures their right to due process.

The order came after two US officials told BBC partner CBS News that the US may soon start deporting migrants to Libya as part of its crackdown on immigration.

In response to the deportations report, Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh wrote in a statement on X that his country refused "to be a destination for the deportation of migrants under any pretext."

Responding to the same report, a spokesperson for the US state department said they would not discuss the matter.

The officials who spoke to CBS - who requested anonymity - said the US military could fly migrants to the North African country as early as this week.

The move is likely to spark controversy - Libya has been mired in conflict for more than a decade and the US state department advises Americans not to travel there due to factors like crime, terrorism and civil unrest.

Immigration lawyers moved quickly on Wednesday to prevent the Trump administration from carrying out the deportations, asking a Massachusetts judge to "urgently" issue a temporary block.

"Multiple credible sources report that flights are preparing to immediately depart the United States carrying class members for removal to Libya," the attorneys wrote in their court filing

US District Judge Brian Murphy in Boston responded late on Wednesday afternoon by issuing an order that restricts the Trump administration's ability to quickly deport the migrants.

In his ruling, Judge Murphy said the deportations "blatantly" defy an injunction he had previously issued that protects the due process rights of migrants subject to final deportation orders.

That earlier ruling requires officials to provide migrants with a written notice in their language and a meaningful opportunity to file a claim to protect them from removal.

Asked whether he was aware of the plan to deport migrants to Libya, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday: "I don't know. You'll have to ask homeland security."

Libya is thought to be one of several countries asked to accept migrant deportations by Trump's administration.

This week Rwanda confirmed it was in the "early stage" of talks with the US, while Benin, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini and Moldova have all been named in media reports.

It is not clear how many people the US hopes to deport to Libya, or which part of Libya the migrants would be sent to.

Since the overthrow of former ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the country has been divided into two - the west is ruled by a UN-backed government, of which Dbeibeh is prime minister, while military strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar controls the east.

Haftar's son met US officials in Washington last Monday, but the US state department and a Libyan spokesperson said the meeting was not about deportations.

Since returning to office in January, President Trump has launched a mass deportation campaign - at times relying on controversial tactics such as the invocation of a centuries-old wartime law.

Earlier this week, the government offered migrants who are in the US illegally a sum worth $1,000 (£751) to leave the country.

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President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, at the Kremlin on Thursday.

北溪2号破产清算在即 美方或成接盘者?

8 May 2025 at 21:17
德正
2025-05-08T12:50:35.773Z
北溪2号天然气登陆站的管道系统和关闭装置

(德国之声中文网)“北溪2号”公司(Nord Stream 2 AG)破产清算程序启动迫在眉睫。瑞士楚格州法院已于2025年1月9日决定“破例将公司是否破产的裁定延长至2025年5月9日”,理由是地缘政治局势复杂以及德国大选“可能会对北溪2号的处境产生重要影响”。

破产清算在即 德国政府无方案

延长期限被业内人士视为,是法院为德国新政府留下的一个干预北溪2号命运的机会。但现实是,上届政府已无力阻止破产或采取其他措施,而新政府尚未来得及处理这一问题。本周二的选举混乱甚至盖过了这样一个重大的战略议题。

如果德国政府至本周五(5月9日)前未能对北溪的未来提出新方案,北溪2号公司资产将被清算。除非法院将最后期限再次延长,否则,来自Transliq AG的破产管理人菲利普·波萨(Philipp Possa)将全面接手管理权。

而其产权方俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)以及德国能源公司Uniper等5家投资方将失去对北溪2号的控制权。Uniper对该管道投入了近10亿欧元,由于Uniper已被收归国有,这笔损失将由德国纳税人承担。 

德国环境项目援助部(DUH)负责人萨沙·穆勒-克雷纳(Sascha Müller-Kraenner)在接受《商报》(Handelsblatt)采访时警告称,德国新政府尚未表明其对北溪2号是否有应对策略。“这和即将卸任的上届政府如出一辙。”他说道,“最坏的情况是,北溪2号沦为普京、特朗普、乌克兰与欧盟之间地缘政治博弈的棋子。” 

美商有意接手北溪

《商报》掌握的一封德国财政部写给穆勒-克雷纳的信函显示,即将卸任的联邦政府对北溪2号项目并不积极。联邦财政部负责监督联邦政府在德国能源公司Uniper公司的持股,而联邦经济部则负责能源政策方面的事务。信中指出,联邦政府在楚格法院的破产程序中并非诉讼方,也未向Uniper下达任何指示。至于是否计划启用北溪2号的问题,信中写道:“我们对所有者是否有相关计划没有任何信息。”

与此同时,美国商人斯蒂芬·林奇(Stephen Lynch)早在数月前就已展现了对北溪2号的兴趣。据称其与特朗普政府关系良好,且有与俄罗斯打交道的经验。事件发展对林奇日渐有利,因为一旦5月9日后启动破产程序,在德国政府表现出不感兴趣的情况下,林奇可能会毫无阻力地以低价从破产资产中收购这条波罗的海天然气管道。

绿党警告北溪“不应落入美俄之手”

绿党政治家、前联邦经济部国务秘书迈克尔·凯尔纳(Michael Kellner)接受《商报》采访时对此发出警告:“再次使用北溪2号输送天然气将导致德国对俄罗斯能源的高度依赖,伤害我们在欧洲的盟友,并填补俄罗斯的战争资金。这种情况必须被阻止。”因此,他主张北溪管道“应归欧洲所有,不能落入俄罗斯或美国之手。”

《商报》报道,在与各部委的决策者就美方购买北溪的话题交谈时,得到的答复大多是“无需担心”。其表示,没有联邦政府的批准,该管道无法投入运营——这在技术层面是正确的,因为北溪2号 确实需要获得政府机构的认证才能投入使用。从物理层面来看,管道目前也无法投入运行:2022年9月,北溪1号的两条管道北溪2号的一条管道发生爆炸受损。但专家认为这些损毁是可以修复的

卢比奥否认解除对“北溪2号”制裁 林奇为购买已申请豁免许可

上周,美国国务卿卢比奥否认了《Politico》的一篇报道。该报道称白宫正在考虑为促成乌克兰和平协议而解除对“北溪2号”管道及其它俄罗斯在欧洲资产的制裁。对此,卢比奥和特朗普特使维特科夫(Steve Witkoff)在一份联合声明中表示:“这不属实。我们从未在和平协议框架下讨论过解除制裁的问题。”并批评该报道“纯为捏造,极不负责”。 

而与此同时,据媒体报道,美国商人林奇(Lynch)已经向美国政府申请了在破产情况下购买北溪2号管道所需的豁免许可。之所以需要这类许可,是因为美国政府对北溪2号实施了严格的制裁。

特朗普:“很多人知道是谁炸的北溪”“不是俄罗斯”

林奇的说法是:若由美国人接手北溪,美国政府将掌握一个用于与俄罗斯展开和平谈判的筹码。美国总统特朗普似乎对此说法持支持态度。

当地时间本周一(5月5日)一名记者新闻发布会上提问特朗普是否会下令对北溪被炸事件进行正式调查。特朗普表示华盛顿知道是谁炸了“北溪”天然气管道,因此“没必要浪费一大笔钱进行调查。”并调侃地补充说:“我想,很多人都知道是谁炸了它。而实际上,我才是最早就把它炸掉的人,因为我当时根本不希望它被建成。”

而早在竞选总统期间,特朗普就已表示,俄罗斯并不是炸毁“北溪”管道的人。他同时暗示,美国可能参与了该起破坏事件。当时他对保守派主持人卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)说道:“我不想让我们的国家陷入麻烦,所以我不会回答这个问题。但我可以告诉你谁没干这事——不是俄罗斯。” 

北溪或成美俄谈判的一部分

据《商报》报道,早在三月底,有关“北溪”天然气管道被纳入美俄就结束乌克兰战争进行谈判的传言就已被证实。俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫在接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时表示:“北溪项目在被讨论。”他所称的“欧洲正常能源供应”不仅符合美国和俄罗斯的利益,也符合欧洲自身利益。拉夫罗夫表示,“接下来将会很有趣,看美国是否会利用其对欧洲的影响力,迫使欧洲不再拒绝来自俄罗斯的天然气。”

但另一方面,据德国每日新闻等各大媒体报道,欧盟委员会本周二(5月6日)发表声明,将在下月提交一份法律提案,计划最迟在2027年底前,全面停止从俄罗斯进口天然气和液化天然气。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示:“现在欧洲是时候彻底切断与不可靠供应商的能源关系了。”

(综合报道)

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© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

德国总统:反对俄罗斯的历史谎言

8 May 2025 at 21:17
德正
2025-05-08T13:06:34.633Z

(德国之声中文网)德国总统施泰因迈尔周四(5月8日)批评俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中散布“历史谎言”。

当天,柏林纪念欧洲二战结束80周年,施泰因迈尔在柏林议会发表讲话时,对盟军士兵和抵抗运动表示感谢,称他们“以全部力量、付出巨大牺牲”打败了纳粹德国。

他还赞扬了苏联红军——其中俄乌士兵并肩作战——在击败纳粹中的作用,并指出苏联红军曾解放了纳粹占领下波兰的奥斯维辛集中营

“我们不会忘记这一点,”施泰因迈尔在德国联邦议会庄严的纪念活动中说道。这一天是纳粹德国向盟军无条件投降的80周年纪念日。

习近平5月8日抵达克宫同普京举行会晤

“但也正因为如此,我们坚决反对克里姆林宫今天的历史谎言。”

俄罗斯将其三年对乌克兰的进攻描述为对“新纳粹”的斗争,并借用自己的二战遗产为战争辩护。

但施泰因迈尔说:“对乌克兰的战争,并不是对抗法西斯主义斗争的延续。”

他说:“普京的侵略战争,他对一个自由、民主国家的攻击,与二战中对抗纳粹暴政的斗争毫无共同之处。”

乌克兰和西方盟国,以及独立专家,都普遍拒绝接受莫斯科的说辞。

德国一直是基辅对抗莫斯科侵略的重要支持者。俄罗斯驻柏林大使没有受邀参加周四的纪念活动。这一天在柏林是公共假日。

泽连斯基:俄罗斯或需“去纳粹化和去军事化”

乌克兰总统泽连斯基周四强调了乌克兰在解放欧洲摆脱纳粹统治中的作用。

泽连斯基在基辅拍摄的视频讲话中说,战争中有800万乌克兰人丧生。他还将他们争取自由的斗争与当前乌克兰反抗俄罗斯的战争相提并论。

泽连斯基表示,如果俄罗斯不改变,将需要“去纳粹化和去军事化”,他使用了普京常用来描绘基辅政府的措辞。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基周四强调了乌克兰在解放欧洲摆脱纳粹统治中的作用。

乌克兰指责莫斯科滥用苏联在二战中战胜纳粹德国的胜利

一场大型阅兵仪式计划于5月9日在莫斯科举行,这一天在俄罗斯被称为胜利日。

据估计,二战期间苏联损失了2700万人的生命。

(法新社、德新社)

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E.U. Unveils Plan for Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Products, if Negotiations Fail

8 May 2025 at 20:59
Boeing and big American food producers could end up in the cross-hairs if the bloc follows through on its threat to impose new tariffs on more American goods.

© Lanna Apisukh for The New York Times

The E.U. has threatened to impose new tariffs on a range of American exports, including meat.

What to Know About Bill Gates’s Plans to Shut Down the Gates Foundation

8 May 2025 at 20:15
The billionaire philanthropist says he will accelerate his giving — but then dissolve his organization in 20 years, decades earlier than he originally planned.

© Dave Thompson/WPA Pool, via Getty Images

Bill Gates and George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, at an event in Liverpool in 2016 announcing funding for a program aimed at reducing deaths from malaria.

巴基斯坦击落五架印度战机 中国军工股票大涨

8 May 2025 at 20:17
德正
2025-05-08T12:06:49.137Z
中国产歼-10C战斗机 资料图片

(德国之声中文网)印度对巴基斯坦周三(5月7日)发动了数十年来最深入、最致命的打击,而巴基斯坦则称击落了数架印度战机。这是两国自2019年以来的首次直接冲突。

巴基斯坦军方周四(5月8日)表示,在多个地点“击落”了25架印度无人机,目前行动仍在继续。

5月7日,印度对巴基斯坦与巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区发动空袭。

巴基斯坦总理谢里夫在国会电视讲话中表示,军方击落了五架印度战机,其中包括三架法国制造的“阵风”战机。谢里夫称,巴基斯坦战机并未进入印度领空,击落敌机是在对方“投弹”之后。这些说法目前无法证实,印度政府也未对战机损失的质疑作出回应。

巴基斯坦使用中国产PL-15空对空导弹

尽管这场空战仍然情况不明,但可以确定的是,巴基斯坦首次在实战中使用了中国产PL-15(霹雳-15)主动雷达制导空对空导弹。

据当地官方媒体报道,巴基斯坦外长伊沙克·达尔(Ishaq Dar)周三称,巴基斯坦在与印度空军的冲突中部署了中国产歼-10C战斗机。

巴基斯坦称击落两架印军战机

一些疑似PL-15导弹残骸的图像开始在社交媒体上传播。据称,这些导弹碎片坠落在印度旁遮普邦东北部的霍希阿尔布尔地区。

PL-15是中国标准的主动雷达制导导弹,设计性能对标美国AIM-120D中程导弹。

印度装备有MBDA“流星”远程导弹,与PL-15相当,但西方分析人士认为,“流星”凭借冲压发动机在“无法逃逸区”和远程命中率上更胜一筹。

中国军工股票大涨

巴基斯坦此次疑似使用的歼-10C战机由中国航空工业集团(AVIC)旗下的成都飞机工业公司生产。在深圳上市的成都飞机工业公司股票一度暴涨超过16%。截至当天上午11点40分,当地股价仍上涨8.31%。周三,该股上涨了17.05%,创下去年10月以来的最大单日涨幅。

中国船舶集团的股票也微涨0.4%。该集团生产军用和民用船只。

根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据,2020年至2024年间,超过60%的中国武器出口流向巴基斯坦。

据路透社报道,周四,当被问及中国战机是否参与了印度与巴基斯坦之间的冲突时,中国外交部称“对此事不了解情况”。

 

(综合报道)

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Bargain Hunt expert charged with terror offences

8 May 2025 at 18:34
BBC Wearing a baseball cap and a yellow shirt with a grey blazer over the top Ochuko Ojiri looks directly at the camera smiling. In the background are dozens of antiques displayed around himBBC

An art dealer who appeared as an expert on the BBC's Bargain Hunt has been charged with terror offences, the Metropolitan Police has said.

Oghenochuko Ojiri, 53, of West London, has been charged with eight counts of "failing to make a disclosure during the course of business within the regulated sector", following an investigation into "terrorist financing".

The Met added that the alleged offences are said to have occurred between October 2020 and December 2021.

Mr Ojiri, who is also known as Ochuko Ojiri, will appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Friday.

The Met said it is the first charge of its kind under section 21A of the Terrorism Act of 2000.

It added that the probe was carried out by its specialist arts and antiques unit, alongside the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) and HMRC.

Mr Ojiri is listed on Bargain Hunt's website as one of the show's experts. He has also appeared on Antiques Road Trip and Channel 5's Storage: Flog the Lot!

He also founded Ramp Gallery, a contemporary art showroom now known as the Ojiri Gallery, based in Stoke Newington in East London.

Israel PM 'uncertain' over condition of three Gaza hostages

8 May 2025 at 18:47
Reuters Israeli hostages' relatives and their supporters protest in Jerusalem (5 May 2025)Reuters
Hostages' families have urged Israel's prime minister to agree another deal with Hamas rather than expand the Gaza offensive

Israel's prime minister has said there is "uncertainty" about the condition of three of 24 hostages previously believed to be alive in Hamas captivity in Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu said he knew "with certainty" that 21 hostages were alive but the status of "three more" was unclear.

His comments came after US President Donald Trump said 24 hostages were alive a week ago but the figure was now 21. He made the comments while speaking at an event at the White House on Tuesday and did not cite a source or provide further details.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum had demanded information.

The forum also urged Netanyahu to halt his plans to expand Israel's offensive in Gaza and to instead agree a deal with Hamas to return its remaining 59 living and dead hostages.

A spokesperson called on the prime minister "to stop the war until the return of the last abductee", adding: "This is the most urgent and important national task."

Speaking in a video on Wednesday following Trump's remarks, Netanyahu said: "We know with certainty that 21 hostages are alive. There are three more regarding whom there's uncertainty about whether they are alive."

Last week, Netanyahu said rescuing hostages was a "very important goal" of the war, but that "the supreme goal is to achieve victory over our enemies".

Israel's chief military spokesman Brig-Gen Effie Defrin appeared to contradict the prime minister on Monday when he stated: "The objective of the operation is the return of our hostages, the dismantling and decisive defeat of the Hamas regime."

Despite that statement, Israel's Haaretz newspaper reports that the military's chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, presented operational orders to commanders this week that put "returning the hostages" bottom of a six-point list, with "defeating Hamas" at the top.

Israeli officials have said the plans for the expanded offensive include seizing all of the territory indefinitely, forcibly displacing Palestinians to the south, and taking over aid distribution with private companies despite protests from the UN and its humanitarian partners.

About 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage during the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which triggered the Gaza war.

Another four people, two of them dead, were already being held captive in Gaza before the conflict.

So far, Israel has secured the return of 196 hostages, 147 of them alive, mostly through two temporary ceasefire deals with Hamas.

At least 52,653 people have been killed in Gaza during the war, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

More than 2,500 have died since Israel ended a two-month ceasefire on 18 March and resumed its offensive, saying it wanted to put pressure on Hamas to release hostages.

Israel has also blocked all deliveries of humanitarian aid and other supplies for nine weeks, which the UN says has caused severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel.

Wikipedia legally challenges 'flawed' online safety rules

8 May 2025 at 17:30
Getty Images A stock image showing a screenshot of Wikipedia's logo - a globe constructed out of jigsaw piece like elements bearing letters in different global alphabets -  on a mobile phone. The text in the image reads "Wikipedia The Free Encyclopedia"Getty Images

Wikipedia is taking legal action against new Online Safety Act regulations it says could threaten the safety of its volunteer editors and their ability to keep harmful content off the site.

The Wikimedia Foundation - the non-profit which supports the online encyclopaedia - is seeking a judicial review of rules which could mean Wikipedia is subjected to the toughest duties required of websites under the act.

Lead counsel Phil Bradley-Schmieg said it was "unfortunate that we must now defend the privacy and safety of Wikipedia's volunteer editors from flawed legislation".

The government told the BBC it was committed to implementing the act but could not comment on ongoing legal proceedings.

It's thought this is the first judicial review to be brought against the new online safety laws - albeit a narrow part of them - but experts say it may not be the last.

"The Online Safety Act is vast in scope and incredibly complex," Ben Packer, a partner at law firm Linklaters, told the BBC.

The law would inevitably have impacts on UK citizens' freedom of expression and other human rights, so as more of it comes into force "we can expect that more challenges may be forthcoming", he told the BBC.

These will add to the array of challenges the act already faces, from claims it's burdensome rules are forcing harmless small websites to close - to those who argue the law and its enforcement are too weak and not up to the job.

Why is Wikipedia unhappy?

The Online Safety Act requires the regulator, Ofcom, to categorise platforms according to their size and their potential to cause users harm.

Those designated "Category 1" - the highest level - will face additional duties to keep users safe.

In very simple terms, sites are most likely to be classed as Category 1 if they allow millions of UK users to interact and share content with each other, and have systems that recommend content.

These rules were originally designed to target the services where UK users were most likely to encounter harmful content - but Wikipedia is concerned they are so vaguely defined there is "a significant risk" it will be included in Category 1.

If that happened, the consequences for the army of volunteers who write and edit articles could be serious and would reach beyond the UK, the Foundation argues.

It has singled out additional duties which could, in effect, require the site to verify the identities of its volunteers - something it fears could expose them to data breaches, stalking, vexatious lawsuits or even imprisonment by authoritarian regimes.

"We would be forced to collect data about our contributors, and that would compromise their privacy and safety, and what that means is that people would feel less safe as contributors", Rebecca MacKinnon the Wikimedia Foundation's vice president of global advocacy told the BBC

"We've seen in other parts of the world, when people do not feel safe contributing to Wikipedia, then they then they shy away from controversial topics that may be challenging to to people who are powerful, and that reduces the quality and the usefulness of the encyclopaedia".

'Outlier' services

The Wikimedia Foundation stresses it is not trying to challenge the OSA in general, or the idea that there should be Category 1 services subject to additional duties.

Instead, it is challenging parts of the so-called "Categorisation Regulations" that set out how the regulator Ofcom will decide which sites will have to follow the most stringent duties.

It argues, as currently defined, they risk not only inappropriately catching sites such as Wikipedia but also missing some platforms which should be abiding by tougher rules.

"The Regulations do not just risk overregulating low risk "outlier" services, like Wikipedia," Phil Bradley-Schmieg wrote in a blog post.

"As designed, the regulations will also fail to catch many of the services UK society is actually concerned about, like misogynistic hate websites".

The foundation argues its volunteers already do an effective job of keeping harmful content off the platform.

After the 2024 Southport murders, volunteers worked night and day to provide reliable and neutral information Mr Bradley-Schmieg wrote.

Ben Packer argues the foundation will have a high bar to cross to convince a court that the Secretary of State acted unlawfully making the regulations.

"Typically, it is difficult to succeed in a judicial review challenging regulations," he told BBC News.

"Here, Wikimedia will be challenging regulations set by the Secretary of State on the advice of Ofcom, after they had conducted research and consultation on where those thresholds should be set," he pointed out.

Ofcom has not yet categorised any services, but has requested information from a number of sites - including Wikipedia - and is awaiting responses.

In a statement it said: We note the Wikimedia Foundation's decision to challenge the categorisation regulations set by the Secretary of State under the Online Safety Act."

VE Day at 80: What's to come - and what you might have missed

8 May 2025 at 02:26
Getty An image of children celebrating VE Day. On the left, there's a child in colour and on the right the children are black and white. The background is a large "V" in grey with blue, white and red stripes. Getty

VE Day marked the end of World War Two in Europe. Huge crowds took to the streets on 8 May 1945 to sing, dance and rejoice after nearly six years of war.

To mark the 80th anniversary, four days of commemorative events have been planned across the UK, from 5 to 8 May. Here's a guide to what's happening and when.

1. Commemorations at the Cenotaph

A banner showing two pictures of the Cenotaph in London, one is black and white and the other is in colour.

London's Cenotaph will become a focal point for quiet reflection when commemorations begin on Bank Holiday Monday.

The monument will be draped in Union Flags, echoing its 1920 unveiling in honour of the fallen soldiers of World War One.

Throughout the four days of remembrance, it will serve as a place of silent tribute to those who died in World War Two, both at home and abroad.

2. Red Arrows in the skies

A banner showing two pictures of the Red Arrows, one is black and white and the other is in colour.

On Monday, more than 1,300 armed forces and members of the public are expected to participate in a military procession from Whitehall to Buckingham Palace.

The event will begin at 12:00 BST in Parliament Square with an actor reciting extracts from Prime Minister Winston Churchill's VE Day speech. The procession will travel down Whitehall, past the Cenotaph, through Admiralty Arch and up the Mall.

A map showing the VE Day military procession on 5 May. It will start at Parliament Square, travel down Whitehall, past the Cenotaph, through Admiralty Arch and up the Mall.

World War Two veterans will watch the event from the Queen Victoria Memorial, alongside Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The procession will be followed by a flypast of current and historic military aircraft. This will include a Voyager transport aircraft - a fleet extensively used in the UK's support for Ukraine - and the Royal Air Force's Red Arrows, famous for their red, white and blue smoke trails in the sky.

3. Royals on the balcony

A banner showing two pictures of the Queen Mother and Princess Elizabeth, one is black and white and the other is in colour.

King Charles and Queen Camilla are expected to make an appearance on the Buckingham Palace balcony at the military parade on Monday. They will also host a tea party for war veterans, their families and other members of the wartime generation in the palace gardens.

The 2025 VE Day commemorations will be the first to take place without any of the royals who appeared on the balcony 80 years ago. In 1945, large crowds gathered outside Buckingham Palace to catch a glimpse of King George VI, the Queen Mother, a young Queen Elizabeth II, and Princess Margaret.

Getty Images A view of the Buckingham Palace balcony on VE Day. From left to right, Queen Elizabeth II, the Queen Mother, Prime Minister Winston Churchill, King George VI and Princess Margaret. Getty Images

4. Street parties and get-togethers

A banner showing two VE Day street parties from different time periods, one is black and white photo and one is in colour.

On Monday, HMS Belfast is hosting a private VE Day 80 anniversary event, with Radio 5 Live's Matt Chorley joining for afternoon tea. In the evening, there is a late night extravaganza with drinks, music and special guests. The famous ship, now parked next to Tower Bridge, is the most significant surviving WW2 warship. It fired some of the opening shots on D-Day in 1944 and protected Arctic convoys during the war.

Street parties will also take place up and down the country, with local communities encouraged to organise their own get-togethers to echo the celebrations from 80 years ago. Councils are hosting events and some have waived their usual road closure fee. Check your local council website to see what festivities are taking place in your area.

And pubs in England and Wales will stay open late on Thursday to allow customers to raise a glass in their local until 01:00 BST.

5. Poppies pouring across Tower lawn

A banner with pictures of poppies, one is black and white and one is in colour.

On Tuesday, the Tower of London will open an art installation of 30,000 ceramic poppies. The flowers originally featured in Blood Swept Lands and Seas of Red, an artwork created to mark the centenary of WW1 and included 888,246 poppies at the castle.

Royal Historic Palaces (RHP) said the poppies "will pour across the lawn overlooked by the ancient White Tower, where the blood-red flowers will form a crater, with ripples flowing outwards".

Visitors can see the new installation as part of a general admission ticket to the Tower of London, although a small part will be visible from the public footpath. The exhibition runs until Armistice Day on 11 November.

6. Music to remember

A banner with two images of people celebrating VE Day in different time periods, one is black and white and the other is in colour.

On Wednesday, the Parliament Choir will host an anniversary concert at the Palace of Westminster marking the moment when a newsflash announced 8 May 1945 as VE Day.

On the same day, the IWM North war museum in Manchester is hosting Letters to Loved Ones, a performance about personal stories of the conflict and people's understanding of the war today.

On Thursday commemorations will be marked by a thanksgiving service at Westminster Abbey and VE Day 80: A Celebration to Remember, an evening concert at Horse Guards Parade. Expected to draw over 10,000 attendees, the concert will feature stars such as Samantha Barks, Fleur East and John Newman.

At the Royal Albert Hall, VE Day 80: The Party, will feature the Royal Philharmonic Concert Orchestra and is organised by SSAFA, the Armed Forces charity.

7. Celebrations across the nation

A banner showing people celebrating for VE Day, one is black and white and the other is in colour.

Outside London, elaborate VE Day celebrations are planned across the country. To search for an event in your local area, visit your council website or use the ve-vjday80.go.uk.

In Staffordshire, the Royal British Legion will host an anniversary tea party and service of remembrance at the National Memorial Arboretum on Thursday, bringing together one of the largest gatherings of WW2 veterans and their families on VE Day.

In Belfast, there will be guided tours of wartime landmarks and a "tea dance" hosted in the City Hall. In Pontypool Wales, the Blaenavon Workmen's Hall is hosting a Great Victory Bake off, a Knit for Victory event and a costume competition. On the north coast of Scotland at Banff Castle, a "full programme of music, dance and entertainment" is slated for VE Day.

How to follow the events on the BBC

A banner showing Winston Churchill in black and white and then a BBC sign in colour.

The BBC will commemorate VE Day with a variety of special programmes. Highlights on BBC One include special editions of Saturday Kitchen on 3 May (10:00 BST), Antiques Roadshow on 4 May (20:00 BST), The One Show on 5 May (18:30 BST), Who Do You Think You Are? on 6 May (21:00 BST) and EastEnders on 8 May (19:30 BST). There will be special programmes across BBC Radio including a concert from Alexandra Palace on BBC Radio 2.

Online, BBC News will cover VE Day with a range of reporting including live pages of the commemorations and a rich selection of video interviews with people who lived through the war.

There will also be live broadcasts of major events on BBC One and iPlayer including:

Monday 5 May - VE Day 80: The Nation Pays Tribute (BBC One, 10:30 BST), presented by Sophie Raworth with commentary from Paddy O'Connell on the military procession in London.

Thursday 8 May - VE Day 80: The Nation Remembers (BBC One, 10:45 BST), a service of thanksgiving from Westminster Abbey presented by Sophie Raworth with commentary from Petroc Trelawny.

Thursday 8 May - VE Day 80: A Celebration to Remember (BBC One, 20:00 BST) a live concert from the Horse Guards parade in London presented by Zoe Ball.

  • To read more about what's happening across the BBC, click here.

What could be in the UK-US tariff deal?

8 May 2025 at 18:42
Getty Images A woman with long straight brown hair in a ponytail wearing a blue uniform style polo shirt writing on a clipboard in front of a lorry full of carsGetty Images

The US and the UK are expected to announce a deal to reduce tariffs later.

It's thought US President Trump's blanket 10% tariffs on imports will stay, but that the UK will see cuts to the 25% tariffs on some of its biggest exports.

Here's a look at what could be in the deal.

This isn't a trade deal

US President Donald Trump declared on social media the announcement to come later would be a "major trade deal" - it won't be.

He does not have the authority to sign the type of free-trade agreement India and the UK finalised earlier this week - this lies with Congress.

Congress would need to approve a trade agreement, which would take longer than the 90-day pause in place on Trump's tariffs.

What it will be is some exemptions or lowering of those tariffs on specific goods.

It might be quite basic

What is announced today is likely to be only the bare bones of a narrow agreement.

There will be months of negotiations and legal paperwork to follow.

It could also be relatively short-term, covering just a few items.

Currently, most goods imported from the UK to the US face a blanket 10% tariff and that's expected to remain.

But this deal is likely to reduce tariffs on specific items set to be subject to higher tariffs.

Cars will be important

Trump has already placed import taxes of 25% on cars and car parts coming into the US.

Cars are our biggest export to the US - worth about £9bn last year.

What we could get later is a lowering of this 25% tariff, or a quota system.

A quota system would allow the UK to sell a certain number of cars into the US under low or zero tariffs, with extra charges on vehicles above that quota.

Car industry leaders have told the BBC they would much prefer lower tariffs across the board - as a quota could effectively put a ceiling on the number they can export competitively.

The UK currently imposes a 10% on US car imports, but is expected to lower this.

The US has demanded the import tax be cut to 2.5%, and Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has indicated she is open to such a cut.

Steel and aluminium pact

A 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports into the US came into effect in March. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK would "keep all options on the table", but did not announce immediate retaliation.

The UK exports a relatively small amount of steel and aluminium to the US, around £700m in total.

However the tariffs also cover products made with steel and aluminium, including things such as gym equipment, furniture and machinery.

These are worth much more, about £2.2bn, or about 5% of UK exports to the US last year.

Steel industry leaders if the 25% tariff isn't lowered or removed then it will be devastating for the industry. It's not known whether the agreement between the US and the UK will lead the rate to be cut or subject to quotas.

Tariffs could lead to US companies buying less from overseas. A knock-on effect could be more cheap steel flooding other markets, including the UK, as trade is redirected, putting more pressure on an already struggling industry.

Pharmaceuticals the big unknown

What will be agreed on pharmaceuticals is unknown.

Most countries, including the US, imposed few or no tariffs on finished drugs, as part of an agreement aimed at keeping medicines affordable.

Pharmaceuticals are a major export for the UK when it comes to US trade – last year sales of medicinal and pharmaceutical products were worth £6.6bn ($8.76bn) making it the UK's second-biggest export to the US.

It's also America's fourth biggest export to the UK, valued at £4bn ($5.3bn) last year.

The president has not announced any trade restrictions on medicines yet.

There is a danger that the UK could agree a deal, but is then subsequently hit by a global tariff.

Digital services tax olive branch

There is speculation the UK could lower its 2% digital services tax on US firms in return for lower tariffs on things like car and pharmaceutical exports.

The tax is on businesses that run social media, search engines or online marketplaces and applies to revenues derived from UK users.

Firms only have to pay it if they raise more than £500m in global revenues and £25m from UK users annually.

But this is a threshold easily met by US tech giants like Meta, Google, Apple.

The UK reportedly netted nearly £360m from American tech firms via the tax in its first year.

In weighing up whether to cut this tax, the UK will have had to balance its drive to raise revenue and further growth with the political risk of being seen to concede to big tech, or President Trump.

Food standards will not be included

Tariffs on US farm products could also be cut. However, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been clear that food standards - for example, allowing imports of chlorinated chicken or hormone-treated beef - will not feature in this deal for domestic political reasons.

This is an area where the UK has chosen alignment with EU - and the forthcoming "Brexit reset" with the EU - over the US.

Many American farmers use growth hormones as a standard part of their beef production, something that was banned in the UK and the European Union in the 1980s.

The US has previously pushed for a relaxation of rules for its agricultural products, including beef from cattle that have been given growth hormones.

It would be seen as a diplomatic win for the UK if the US has accepted even a narrow deal while dropping demands in this area.

The make-up artist using colours she can't see

8 May 2025 at 17:04
BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King Ailish is standing next to a seated make-up model. Ailish is holding a thin brush in one hand and has two turquoise rings on her fingers. She is looking off to the side, probably at a mirror, rather than directly at the model and has a look of concentration on her face. Ailish has black wavy hair with a fringe and bold black eyeliner. She is also wearing a black distressed jumper, silver hoop earrings and a silver necklace with a cross on it. She also has three silver nose piercings, including a nose ring, stud and septum barbell. The model has her eyes closed and her entire face has been painted using different shades of blue. It is clear that the make-up look has not been complete yet and the model's lips are bare. The model's black hair has been plaited back into cornrows. The background is out of focus but Ailish and the model are in a make-up studio with shelves or products and a ring light behind them. BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King
Ailish McBride, 20, is one of the contestants from Series 7 of Glow Up

Whether it's trying to cover up blemishes, match your foundation to your skin tone or create a bold eye look, picking out the right colours is an important part of doing your make-up.

But what if you can't tell some of them apart?

That's something Ailish McBride struggles with as a partially colour-blind make-up artist (MUA).

The 20-year-old didn't find out she had the condition, also called colour vision deficiency, until a couple of years ago.

But she says it runs in the family - with her dad and sister being fully colour-blind.

"Being a make-up artist is hard for me," Ailish tells BBC Newsbeat.

"Red and orange look the same to me and light blues I kind of see as grey," she says.

That makes mixing purple particularly tricky and she also struggles to see pastel colours.

BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King Ailish is looking directly into the camera with a completed make-up look. We can see her from her shoulders up and she has painted herself with a white base layer. On top of this are swirls of colour that have been painted on with brushtroke texture. One of her eyes is encircled with lilac. The other eye and middle part of her face is pink. Her lower lips and chin are covered in red. Her lower chin is orange and underneath this on her neck is yellow. One of her shoulders is blue while the other is green. Ailish's hair has been slicked back and she is against a plain black background. She has two silver nose pierecings in, one is a hoop and one is a stud. BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King
For the first creative brief on the show, Ailish didn't shy away from using colours she's unable to see

The cosmetics student from Belfast features on the latest series of BBC Three's Glow Up, where she opens up about her condition.

The show, hosted by model Leomie Anderson, sees 10 contestants from across the UK battle it out through weekly industry assignments and creative briefs to become the country's next make-up star.

"I didn't see me being colour blind as a setback in the competition because I know my skillset," Ailish says.

"It was a bit tricky in certain situations but I'm proud of how I worked through it."

In the first episode Ailish decided not to hold back, experimenting with an explosion of colour inspired by her own creativity.

"I love to challenge myself," she says. "I don't like to settle into a little box.

"I wanted to show people that even if you are colour-blind, you can still do big, bold, creative looks."

Ailish McBride There is a black make-up palette containing eyeshadow squares of different colours. Each row has different shades, including red, yellow, green, blue and pink. Underneath each square is a small white label that has the name of the colour. The palette is resting on a pink sheet with flowers on it.Ailish McBride
Labelling shades in make-up palettes is important to Ailish so she knows what colours she is using

In the first episode, judges Val Garland and Dominic Skinner said her final look was flat and simplistic and Ailish ended up in the Face Off, going head to head against contestant Joe Tiernan to stay in the competition.

However, Val told her: "I think it's amazing you've got this much colour down being colour-blind".

"That is showing a very determined make-up artist."

Ailish thinks she was able to execute her looks after learning more about colour theory, helping her understand how to mix together the shades she needed.

Plus, after freelancing in the industry for a few years, she's become used to labelling all of her palettes with the names of corresponding colours.

BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King Ailish is in the middle of applying a make-up look to her face. We can see her from a side-on angle. Her head is tilted upwards and she is looking straight ahead, presumably into a mirror. She has a paintbrush in hand and is painting on a yellow colour underneath her chin. Ailish's face has been sectioned off into different colour blocks with gaps of unpainted skin in between. The upper part of her cheek and one of the eyes is lilac. The middle of her face and nose is pink. Her lower lip and upper chin is red. Part of her lower chin is orange and underneath that is the yellow on her neck. Ailish's black hair has been scraped back into a low bun and she has a silver hoop nose piercing. The background is out of focus but she is in a dark room with neon blue vertical lines of light. BBC/Wall To Wall/Dave King
Judge Val Garland told Ailish her use of colour showed she was a determined make-up artist

It's estimated that about 3 million people living in the UK are affected by colour blindness, according to Colour Blind Awareness.

It affects more men than women - with about one in 12 males having the condition compared with one in 200 females.

There's no cure and it's also not clear what causes it, the NHS says, but often it runs in families and is something people are born with and adapt to.

After finding herself in the red chairs and at risk of elimination for two weeks in a row, Ailish became the second MUA to leave the competition on Wednesday.

She was seen getting emotional in the second episode, needing a hug from judge Val after her look failed to impress.

"I get quite bad anxiety," Ailish tells Newsbeat.

"It was overwhelming at the time and I really let myself get in my head during the show."

But Ailish was still proud to have even featured on Glow Up, which has been her dream since she first watched the show aged 14.

Having recently finished her degree, she's looking forward to pursuing more of her goals by picking up work on films and in theatres.

And while she may not have got one on series 7, as she starts this new chapter, Ailish asks: "Can I get a Ding Dong?!"

Glow Up: Britain's Next Make-Up Star is on BBC Three at 20:00 on Wednesdays and is available to stream on BBC iPlayer.

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Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 weekdays - or listen back here.

The choppy waters between North Sea oil and green energy revolution

8 May 2025 at 13:21
Getty Images an oil worker in a red uniform and and hard hat stands on one North Sea platform looking across the water to another platformGetty Images
There is concern over the pace of transition for oil and gas workers into the renewables sector

The Great Energy Transition is under way, and may come to define this era, but it's not going smoothly.

For the oil and gas sector, a further sign of its decline - both long-term and cyclical - is in 250 onshore Aberdeen jobs being axed by Harbour Energy, now one of the biggest operators.

With a global portfolio of producing fields, it has other places to put its capital, from Egypt to Argentina, where profits are not taxed at 78%, and where the government is not refusing to grant new drilling licences.

It is also reviewing its commitment to the Viking carbon capture and storage scheme being planned for Humberside, blaming "repeated delays" by the UK government.

The same company is a partner in the similar Acorn project, based in north-east Scotland. Those "repeated delays" affect both projects.

It would be less concerning if there were a transition for oil and gas workers into the renewables sector, re-skilling as they move. For many, including their union representatives, that is merely rhetoric.

And the gap between one industry declining and the other rising is growing wider, with the decision by Ørsted, a Danish company, to halt development of a vast offshore wind farm off the coast of Yorkshire, called Hornsea 4.

The project secured a valuable and hard-won guarantee of a minimum price for 15 years, known as a Contract for Difference. That reduces risk for investors. But Orsted, majority owned by the Copenhagen government, is giving that away, and paying heavily to break supply chain contracts, because the financing of the project no longer stacks up.

The clean energy revolution is also grinding to a halt near Scotland's west coast. Drax, the owner of the hydro power station inside Ben Cruachan near Oban, had plans to expand its potential for pumped storage - a form of storing power by pumping water uphill when demand is low and there's excess supply of wind power, and then releasing water steeply downhill to generate power when demand goes up.

To reduce risk for investors, it wanted to win a similar type of contract for a minimum price (as well as a maximum one). But it's decided to postpone that £500m plan, blaming the capital costs.

Getty Images looking out to sea where a ship is surrounded by offshore wind turbinesGetty Images
Some high-profile offshore wind farm projects have been halted or scrapped

Even before the auction of contracts has been designed by Ofgem, it's backing out of bidding later this year, looking instead to the UK government and its regulator, Ofgem, to help reduce the risk and the costs associated with it.

Meanwhile, Drax is looking at less ambitious options for expanding the existing power station, now aged 60, which could generate both power and the cash to go much further.

Such delays put a big question mark over the Labour UK government plan to reach 95% of British energy generation from clean sources within only five years. If current plans cannot stack up financially, there are many other plans that are put into doubt.

These include four projects for pumped storage in Scotland - three of them new, one an expansion - and the humongous ScotWind plans to locate hundreds of fixed and floating wind turbines arrayed around the coast of Scotland.

Without pumped storage, the greener grid will require a lot more battery storage, and that is not proving popular with those who live near planned sites.

Because the UK government has set such an ambitious and high-profile target for clean, green power, it may be that these developers are using the leverage of a halted project to get a more attractive set of price guarantees.

These don't come from the taxpayer but from future electricity bill-payers, and Ofgem has the job of balancing the consumer interest with the objective of the energy transition.

It may also be that Harbour Energy is backing up the wider oil and gas industry in putting pressure on the UK government to give it a less hostile business environment. It took only a few minutes from the announcement of Harbour's job losses to Prime Minister's Questions, with both the Conservatives and SNP piling on the pressure.

Zonal pricing over national pricing

Across the British energy sector, this pressure is building at a vital time for three difficult and complex decisions.

ONE. The UK government recently closed a consultation on the future of the oil and gas industry, the way it is taxed and licensed.

The industry has been lobbying furiously for a slower wind-down of drilling activity, arguing that Britain will continue to need oil and gas for decades, and it is more secure and less damaging in greenhouse gas emissions if that is domestically produced.

To concede that argument would be an awkward U-turn, particularly for the Energy and Net Zero Secretary, Ed Miliband. Not to concede it puts future job losses at his door.

TWO. REMA, the Review of Energy Market Arrangements, is a Whitehall project to change the way markets work. The big decision there is over zonal pricing, instead of a national pricing system.

The case is made, most enthusiastically by retail supplier Octopus, that it could cut prices in some parts of Britain if they reflected the market rate for regional supply. So lots of wind power in northern Scotland could mean cheaper prices for northern Scots.

That is in theory. Critics of the plan say it would add cost overall, prices would be more volatile and unpredictable, which is itself a cost to suppliers, and cheaper power in one part of Britain would likely mean higher prices in other parts.

Developers of renewable energy say such a change would render it hard to make an investment case, where revenues become even more uncertain. And bedding in the system could take until the mid-2030s, and delay progress on other priorities.

An alternative outcome from REMA would be an evolved system with several reforms:

  • Technical and economic fixes to balance the power grid when the wind doesn't blow, and reduce the dependence on back-up gas plants
  • Opening up access to smaller generators, in solar, for instance: improving price transparency
  • And reform of those Contracts for Difference to align them with the changes the power system needs, and not merely with lower prices for consumers.

The intention is to send signals to investors that they can have the confidence to commit an estimated £40bn per year to fund the energy transition. Ed Miliband is expected to make that decision this month and announce it next month.

Getty Images a domestic energy smart meter showing a daily cost of £1.56 is sitting on a table with a laptop computer and a potted plant beside itGetty Images
Keeping domestic energy bills down could come at a cost of securing jobs

To back up that confidence for investors, the taxpayer-fuelled National Wealth Fund has added to a busy Wednesday of energy sector developments by committing £600m, alongside Bank of America, three Spanish, one French and two UK banks, to complete a £1.3bn Scottish Power loan.

This is for the Glasgow-based, Spanish-owned utility to build some of the grid connections necessary to link renewable power with customers. The total GB bill for that, however, looks more like £60bn.

In this case, it contributes to two high-voltage subsea links - one from Torness in East Lothian to County Durham, the other from Fife to landfall in Lincolnshire and on to Norfolk, while installing new substations and overhead transmission cables, often facing the headwind of local resident opposition.

And then there's THREE. Ofgem is due to conclude a review of the costs to developers of having access to the national grid. Known as TNUoS, Transmission Network Use of System, this has long been controversial in Scotland, because it places a rising cost on generating firms per unit of power as you travel north.

This was designed more than 30 years ago, as an incentive to build big thermal power stations nearer cities.

In the north of Scotland, where the most reliable winds blow, there's a hefty cost. In the south of England and Wales, connection is not a cost, but a subsidy. SSE Networks, which owns and operates the north of Scotland transmission cabling, is lobbying for change and gives an example of similar wind farms, the northern Scottish one paying £5.54 to connect per megawatt hour, while a Welsh one receives £2.81 in subsidy.

What about Net Zero targets?

Added to very high volatility from year to year, this issue is a deal-breaker for the next generation of offshore windfarms. Their supply costs of installation have been rising steeply, so they want to nail down the continuing transmission costs and the revenue they can expect.

That's put Ofgem under pressure to change the system, and build in incentives to put turbines where the wind blows.

None of these decisions can be spotted on your domestic or business energy bills. But all of them end up there, embedded in the prices charged for getting power into homes and business premises.

As more money is spent and the transition continues, a larger share of the bill is likely to come from the costs of giving developers and financiers the incentives to invest.

Such costs could be avoided, if the priority is to keep bills to a minimum. But that comes at a price, of jobs not created.

The power grid would remain dependent on imported gas, and on the volatility of its global pricing.

And the targets for Net Zero? Blown away.

今年“强基计划”有这些新动向

8 May 2025 at 16:15

中国教育报

4月上旬以来,清华大学、北京大学等39所高校陆续发布“强基计划”招生简章,启动2025年报名工作。

自2020年启动实施以来,“强基计划”持续推进。今年,“强基计划”有哪些新动态、呈现出哪些新趋势?

快和小编一起来看→

专业布局扩容升级 新增前沿与交叉学科

目前,“强基计划”试点高校共39所,在数学、物理、化学、生物、力学、历史、哲学、古文字学、基础医学等基础学科以及国家重大战略领域相关专业招生。

“基础学科不能等同于‘冷门学科’,基础学科可以认为是科技创新的源头。”南京大学招生办主任陈琳表示,“强基计划”聚焦高端芯片与软件、新材料、先进制造等关键领域以及国家人才紧缺的人文社会科学领域,旨在选拔培养有志于服务国家重大战略需求且综合素质优秀或基础学科拔尖的学生,为国家发展提供人才支撑,为强国建设奠定基础。

记者发现,今年“强基计划”招生专业中不乏量子信息、集成电路、人工智能等领域专业。

如南京大学今年新增了智能科学、电子科学两个培养方向,旨在培养具有源头创新能力的高水平人工智能专业人才和服务国家战略性、关键性与先导性产业的基础研究人才。北京理工大学数学与应用数学专业新增智能科学科技培养方案,以“人工智能+机器人”为培养特色。

与此同时,低空经济的迅速发展,带来了对航空航天人才的需求。“发展低空经济需要体系化支撑,比如,整合低空航空器制造、运行等领域技术,研发关键原材料及核心零部件以及城市空中交通应急管理等。”北京航空航天大学招生办主任刘睿表示,对此,学校新增空天材料、飞行器制造工程等4个专业,旨在面向国家关键领域和战略前沿,培养一批有志于报国,对专业学科有兴趣、有天赋,愿为国家关键领域重大科技攻关贡献力量的人才。

在专业布局方面,多所高校也更为注重学科交叉。例如,上海交通大学强基Ⅰ组以数学、物理、生物医学工程为核心学科,内设数学—人工智能、物理—电子科学与技术双学位,突破传统学科边界,强化理工交叉特色。西安交通大学围绕国家“卡脖子”技术领域布局,形成“基础学科+战略需求”的学科架构,理科专业强调“理学+工程”双线发展,文科哲学专业注重逻辑思辨与科技伦理研究,培养学生服务科技战略的宏观视野。

此外,不少高校都明确表示招生人数有所增加。在招生地域上,部分高校向中西部倾斜,例如,中国农业大学新增在贵州、新疆两地招生,中国海洋大学新增在重庆、云南、甘肃等地招生。

注重选拔机制公平公正 “单科破格”与多维考核并重

教育部强调,“强基计划”要在保证公平公正的前提下,探索建立多维度考核评价考生的招生模式。

整体来看,今年的“强基计划”招生继续为有学科特长的人才提供绿色通道,呈现出“淡化竞赛优待、单科破格拓宽”等趋势。一方面,北京航空航天大学、东北大学、重庆大学、大连理工大学等高校取消第二类五大学科竞赛二等奖及以上考生的破格入围资格。另一方面,天津大学、北京师范大学、北京理工大学、中国农业大学、华中科技大学、电子科技大学等高校则采取“单科破格”入围政策。

“与去年相比,我校‘强基计划’新增设了‘单科破格’入围的办法,对于第一类以高考成绩优异报名,数学或物理单科满分且高考成绩进入分省招生计划数5—6倍之间的考生,可破格入围。”电子科技大学招生办主任林鹏说。

“单科破格”多数表现在数学和物理学科。例如,天津大学数学与应用数学、工程力学等专业要求数学科目成绩不低于145分,且高考加权成绩排序处于6倍以内。华中科技大学数学与应用数学、生物科学要求数学不低于145分,物理学专业要求物理满分。中南大学要求数学成绩不低于145分,可不受名额限制入围第一志愿,不限专业。

今年,电子科技大学新增信息与计算科学、数理基础科学两大培养方向,要求选考“物理+化学”。“这两门学科培养了学生的逻辑推理与工程分析能力,帮助学生建立从微观原理到宏观系统的科学认知框架,强化学生的实验设计与跨学科关联能力,这是解决人工智能算法设计、芯片器件研发等复杂问题的思维基础,也是连接理论模型与实际应用的桥梁。”在林鹏看来,其核心目标是通过学科融合,塑造学生“理论推导—实践验证—技术转化”的完整学术思维链条,使其能够适应国家战略领域对创新性、综合型人才的需求。

那么,这是否就意味着“单科为王”呢?实则不然。

“宽口径,厚基础。”中南大学本科生招生办主任邹滨表示,中南大学完善校考评价体系,分科学思维、创新想象、公民素质、人文素养、学科特长5个方面对考生进行面试考核,旨在考核学生的综合能力,全方位考查学生是否具备将来从事基础研究和学科交叉研究的科研潜力。

“学校考核环节包含笔试、综合面试和体育测试。综合面试则包含科研潜质及创新素养评估,主要考查考生分析问题、解决问题的能力,以及表达能力和创新思维等。”上海交通大学招生办负责人介绍,上海交大不断探索和实行招考分离制度,设置考试评价中心等部门开展校考命题评价工作,并采取“三对一”两轮面试模式,采用“三随机”抽签,确保考试公平公正。

培养体系贯通衔接  个性化路径助力科研成长

“入学以来,我不仅收获了学术导师、学业导师、朋辈导师的陪伴,还在大一就加入课题组,进入实验室,并在大二学年就开始进行实验和理论方面的CUPT(中国大学生物理学术竞赛)项目研究,这极大地激发了我对学科的探索兴趣。”北京航空航天大学2022级“强基计划”学生刘丰宁说。

“从入口看,‘强基计划’选拔了一批对基础学科有志向有兴趣有天赋的学生;从培养看,多数学生表现优异并积极投身科学研究;从出口看,更多学生进入硕博阶段进行长周期培养。”教育部相关负责人表示。

采访中,许多高校提到要为每个学生量身定制成长路径,通过导师制和小班制教学等方式,突出产教融合、科教融汇,打造本研衔接的专业模块课程体系和学术训练体系,为学生构建全方位、长周期的研究能力培养格局。

挖掘学生潜力上,“做到思想政治教育全贯穿和创新创业教育全贯穿”。邹滨表示,学校从低年级开始就通过校内外导师联合培养,让学生尽早进入科研项目,了解产业前沿。在学生培养过程中,学生参与科研创新率达到100%。

拓宽学科视野上,陈琳以南京大学“AI生物学实验班”举例,学校通过建设交叉性课程、组织本科生跨学科研修,促进不同学科方向的教师和学生合作学习与研究。实施卓越人才培育计划,遴选来自不同基础学科的本科生共同参与,建立起多学科、多领域、大跨度、深层次的交叉渗透和跨界融合平台。

贯通衔接模式上,上海交通大学为学生定制本博衔接培养模式,打造“厚植基础+使命驱动+好奇心推动”的人才培养体系。哈尔滨工业大学本科阶段单独编班,并于每学年进行阶段性考核,通过考核的学生可进入研究生阶段。

谈及学生转段情况,刘睿表示:“83%左右的北航学生实现了本专业转段,其余学生转段进入高端芯片、新材料、智能制造等其他交叉学科培养。”

据悉,“强基计划”为服务国家重大战略需求选拔了一批批综合素质优秀或基础学科拔尖的学生。2020年、2021年录取的“强基计划”学生达到转段要求的已顺利完成本研衔接,超半数学生直接转入博士阶段培养。

本文来源|中国教育报2025年5月8日01版,原标题《试点高校陆续发布“强基计划”招生简章,启动2025年报名工作 今年“强基计划”有哪些新动向》

网络编辑:小乔

“软实力”概念提出者 美知名学者约瑟夫·奈去世

8 May 2025 at 15:24

央视新闻

当地时间7日,美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院发表公报称,该院前院长、美国知名政治学者、“软实力”概念提出者约瑟夫·奈6日去世,终年88岁。

公报说,约瑟夫·奈关于国际关系中权力本质的思想影响了一代又一代政策制定者、学者和学生。他在哈佛大学任教期间,发展了“软实力”“巧实力”和“新自由主义”等概念。

约瑟夫·奈1937年出生在美国新泽西州,1964年起在哈佛大学任教。他于上世纪70年代和90年代两次进入美国政府工作,曾在美国前总统克林顿任期内担任国防部负责国际安全事务的助理部长。

 

网络编辑:小乔

史上第三次同日宣布“双降”意味着什么?

同一天宣布降准降息此前在历史上仅有两次,分别是2008年12月22日和2015年8月25日。

“双降”的经济逻辑在于逆周期政策在面临外部冲击时需要进一步加码以提振内需,而低通胀环境也提供了充分的政策空间;近期美元走弱,人民币汇率走强,外汇市场处于流入状态,这为进一步货币宽松提供了契机。

“央行流动供给主要还是平衡增长、通胀以及宏观审慎的需要,倒不在于工具的限制。”

债券市场“科技板”相关政策和准备工作已经基本就绪。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员 李鹤鸣 廖浩伦

责任编辑:丰雨

2025年5月8日起,中国人民银行(下称“央行”)下调政策利率0.1个百分点。这是央行年内首度下调政策利率。

此前一天,2025年5月7日上午,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、国家金融监督管理总局(下称“金融监管总局”)和中国证监会“一把手”就“一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期”介绍有关情况。其中,中国人民银行宣布推出三类10项货币政策措施,金融监管总局宣布近期将推出8项增量政策。尤为令市场关注的是,央行当天同时宣布降低政策利率和存款准备金率。南方周末新金融研究中心查证发现,这是央行继2008年12月22日和2015年8月25日之后第三次同日宣布下调利率和存款准备金率,更是近10年来首次同日宣布“双降”。与此同时,债券市场“科技板”、科技创新债券风险分担工具和科技保险共保体等多项支持科技创新的金融政策在此次发布会上集中披露,亦引发市场高度关注。

多家大型金融机构首席经济学家、金融机构资深从业人员和知名高校金融学者接受南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研时表示,较之2024年9月24日国新办新闻发布会上推出的一揽子政策,此次新推出的一揽子金融政策是贯彻落实既定部署和政策尤其是4月25日中央政治局会议的要求,也是应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性的形势需要。

十年来首次同日官宣“双降”

此次发布会上,央行行长潘功胜首先发布了央行新推出的三类共10项货币政策,被市场称为“十箭齐发”。其中,降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点和下调政策利率0.1个百分点最受关注。央行官网随后发布的公告显示,5月8日起下调政策利率0.1个百分点,5月15日起下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点。潘功胜表示,下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点预计将向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元,下调政策利率0.1个百分点预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)随之下行0.1个百分点。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员统计研究发现,同一天宣布降准降息在历史上仅有两次,分别是2008年12月22日和2015年8月25日。其中,第一次是为应对国际金融危机对中国经济的冲击,通过降准降息增加市场流动性,刺激经济增长;第二次则是经济结构转型期为应对经济下行压力加大而采取的重要货币政策举措。

“双降”作为货币政策宽松的典型举措,其直接释放大量流动性对资本市场具有重大影响,因此历史上两次“双降”一般会选择在资本市场非交易时段发布。但此次发布会选择沪深股市开盘交易前开始,并一直持续至中午11点结束,亦属罕见。

需要指出的是,政策利率调降之后,市场预期,LPR(贷款市场报价利率)将按惯例于20日起随之调降。调整后新的贷款利率只针对新发放贷款,而存量贷款的重定价通常要迟至2025年1月份。降息也将对商业银行的净息差、营收和利润等构成新的挑战,对此潘功胜在发布会上也透露,将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。

在支持实体经济的同时,商业银行如何通过技术赋能实施精准定价、如何维持适当的盈利能力以实现可持续发展,亦是南方周末新金融研究中心研究员在调研时发现的商业银行自身和学界关注的焦点之一。

人民币走强提供“双降”契机

同日宣布“双降”同时,央行还阶段性把汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的5%降至0,并降低所有结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。数量型政策、价格型政策和结构型政策齐发,规模和力度均为2024年9月份以来最强。

央行为何选择此时出手?

清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩对南方周末新金融研究中心研究员称,此时宣布“双降”政策,是基于当前宏观经济形势和金融市场的综合考虑。从宏观经济角度来看,是为了应对外部环境不确定性加大、经济增长放缓、投资和消费不振的压力;从金融市场角度看,可以提供充裕的流动性,降低市场波动风险,稳定市场预期,推动金融资源更高效配置,助力实体经济恢复活力。

“‘双降’并不意外。实际上,央行给出适时降准降息的前瞻性指引的时间已经不短,5月份降准、二季度降息均在预期之内。”花旗集团董事总经理、大中华区首席经济学家余向荣向南方周末新金融研究中心研究员分析称,“‘双降’的经济逻辑在于逆周期政策在面临外部冲击时需要进一步加码以提振内需,而低通胀环境也提供了充分的政策空间。”他认为,“央行之所以觉得现在是合适的时机,至少有两方面的考虑:其一,4月底中央政治局会议对稳增长政策进行了部署,需要及时落地,这也是提振市场预期的需要;其二,近期美元走弱,人民币汇率稳定,外汇市场处于流入状态,这为进一步货币宽松提供了契机。”

“存准”是否见底?

存款准备金率还有多大调降空间?

中国的存款准备金制度始于1984年,并自1985年首次通过调整存款准备金率进行宏观经济调控,迄今恰满40年。此次是央行第68次调整存款准备金率,也是第32次下调该项货币政策工具。此次调整后,大型银行和中小金融机构的存款准备金率分别为9%和6%,整体存款准备金率平均水平将从6.6%降至6.2%。与历史上的存款准备金率水平相比,大型银行的存款准备金率已较历史高位降低近60%,中小金融机构的存款准备金率已降至历史最低水平。

逼近历史低位的存款准备金率工具是否还有调降空间?粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒向南方周末新金融研究中心研究员称,中国整体存款准备金率距离6.0%的历史低位尚有空间,且与主要经济体仍存在明显差距,未来或可进一步下调1-2个百分点。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员查证,存款准备金率政策并非中国独有,也并非所有国家都施行。在施行存款准备金率政策的主要经济体中,美国和欧盟分别为0和1%,主要新兴经济体约5%,而英国、日本和澳大利亚等国甚至没有相关制度安排。

“美国的0和欧盟的1%也表明,较低的准备金率并不会导致金融系统不稳定。”田轩向南方周末新金融研究中心研究员表示,“中国和欧美在经济结构和发展阶段上存在差异,在货币政策工具上也有所不同。中国需综合考虑金融稳定、通胀控制等多重因素,进行审慎决策。继续下调存款准备金率确实能够释放更多流动性,支持实体经济发展;但另一方面,过低的存款准备金率可能会限制央行对流动性的调控能力,增加流动性风险。”

“传统的存款准备金率进一步下调仍有空间,但空间在减少。”余向荣也认为,中国不会施行美国的零准备金制度,较为合意的准备金率下限可能在5%左右。“预计今年准备金还会再降50个基点,但往后进一步下调的空间不太大。”他同时强调,“降准空间收窄并不意味着央行投放流动性的空间受限。央行2024年推出了买断式逆回购,重启了国债买卖,2025年3月份改革了MLF利率招标方式。这些都是有力的流动性投放工具,操作空间很大。从这个意义上说,央行流动供给主要还是平衡增长、通胀以及宏观审慎的需要,倒不在于工具的限制。”

科技金融多箭齐发

科技兴国已是国策,科技金融位列金融“五篇大文章”之首。

在此次发布会上,“一行一局一会”的“一把手”均披露了有关金融支持科技创新的多条最新政策举措,鼓励提升科技企业直接融资。其中,央行将创设科技创新债券风险分担工具,支持股权投资机构未来在债券市场“科技板”发行长期限的债券融资;中国证监会则会优化科技创新债券发行注册流程,完善增信支持,为科创企业提供全方位、“接力式”的金融服务;金融监管总局则将发起设立金融资产投资公司(简称“AIC”。相关报道详见《银行系股权投资扩围提速,容错机制如何置换信贷文化?》)的主体扩展至符合条件的全国性商业银行,其中首张扩围“门票”已于当天下午花落兴业银行。

其中,债券市场“科技板”、科技创新债券及其风险分担工具是“一行一局一会”与科技部等部门携手打造的最具“含金量”的系列科技金融创新政策。潘功胜在发布会上透露,债券市场“科技板”相关政策和准备工作已经基本就绪,未来将支持金融机构、科技型企业、股权投资机构这三类市场主体发行科技创新债券;从科技创新债券发行意愿的情况看,市场各方响应非常积极,目前有近100家市场机构计划发行超过3000亿元的科技创新债券,预计后续还会有更多机构参与。

与此前相比,此次发布会在该项创新政策上有哪些新突破?中信证券首席经济学家明明向南方周末新金融研究中心研究员分析称,5月7日央行与中国证监会联合发布公告,从产品体系、配套机制和风险分担等维度全面升级科技创新债券市场。首先,拓宽发行主体至金融机构、科技企业及股权投资机构,允许募集资金用于贷款、股权投资和并购等多元化场景;其次,优化发行流程,鼓励灵活设置长期限债券条款,简化信息披露并创新信用评级体系;再次,完善风险分担工具,鼓励地方提供增信支持。明明还认为,针对科创债的系列政策组合拳“有助于精准破解科创企业融资痛点”,一方面,通过增信机制降低中小科技企业发债门槛,以长期限债券匹配研发周期,流动性支持措施(如纳入基准做市品种)增强二级市场吸引力;另一方面,科创债有望成为“科技—产业—金融”良性循环的核心枢纽。

田轩则称,与其他国家支持科技企业融资的债券政策相比,在政策力度上,央行提供低成本再贷款资金,专门用于购买科技创新债券,更加直接有力;且央行通过与地方政府、市场化增信机构等合作,形成多层级风险分担机制,具有更强的带动作用;在覆盖范围上,不仅覆盖了科技创新企业,还涵盖了股权投资机构,帮助其拓宽了融资渠道,并促进股权融资市场与债券市场的良性互动;在针对性上,政策创新紧密围绕科技创新企业的融资需求,覆盖更多初创及成长期科技企业,精准解决融资难题。

田轩认为,系列政策预计会对科技企业融资环境带来实质性改善,进一步拓宽科技企业的融资渠道,降低科技企业的融资成本,显著提升科技企业的融资可获得性和成本优势,提高其融资效率,推动科技成果转化和产业升级。

8年首家AIC牌照落地

对于此次新发布的一揽子金融政策,作为市场主体的金融机构有何反应?

金融监管总局局长李云泽在发布会上表示,支持符合条件的全国性商业银行设立金融资产投资公司,近日即将陆续批复。“今天我们就会批复一家,推动加大对科创企业的投资力度。”当天下午,金融监管总局官网发布信息显示,批复同意兴业银行筹建兴银金融资产投资有限公司。南方周末新金融研究中心研究员查核发现,这是自2017年以来获批筹建的首家银行系AIC,亦是首个由全国性股份制商业银行发起设立的AIC公司。此前,首批5家 AIC分别由工农中建交五大国有银行全资于2017年获批成立。

AIC公司作为“耐心资本”的代表,是商业银行加大对实体经济直接融资支持力度的重要渠道,也是2024年9月出台的一揽子增量政策中的重要组成部分。通过AIC公司,大型银行得以构建“债权 + 股权”的联动服务机制,为高科技、创新型企业提供全生命周期的金融服务。对前一阶段AIC扩大试点的成效,李云泽表示,金融资产投资公司股权投资签约意向金额已突破3800亿元;科技企业并购贷款有序开展,18个城市试点银行“首单”业务都已经落地。

5月7日晚间,兴业银行发布公告称,已收到批复并将根据批复筹建兴银金融资产投资有限公司。兴银金融资产投资有限公司注册资本100亿元,是该行全资子公司。该公司正式开业后,将有利于该行更好服务新质生产力发展,实现对债转股业务的专业化、市场化运作,降低企业杠杆率,加大对科创企业、民营企业支持力度,进一步推动该行可持续、高质量发展。

中信银行投资银行部(科技金融中心)有关负责人向南方周末新金融研究中心研究员表示,该行依托中信集团金控全牌照优势,通过投贷联动、并购融资等创新模式,联手头部创投机构培育耐心资本,为科技企业提供“股-债-贷-保”一站式综合金融服务方案。为进一步赋能科技成果转化,该行近期正式推出“启航计划”,聚焦人工智能、生物医药、高端制造等科技前沿领域,通过构建全链条金融服务体系,计划未来三年重点培育和支持1万家关键核心技术领域的硬科技企业,推动创新成果落地生根。

接受调研的专家、学者和业内资深人士对于多箭齐发的科技金融新政策落地效果满怀期待。

校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

每日人物|打工13年,我成了“最后一代外企人”

8 May 2025 at 19:38

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今年,外企裁员仿佛按下加速键,几乎每月都有新消息传来。四月,PayPal(美国在线支付服务商)被传出将撤出中国,裁员比例高达80%。

把时间线再往前拉。去年八月,老牌互联网巨头IBM宣布关闭中国研发部门,超过1000名员工面临离职,在互联网上引发热议。来到今年三月初,故事迎来终局。IBM中国投资公司正式关停,这次震荡再次波及到北京、上海、大连等地1800多名员工的去留。

在21世纪初,入职像IBM这样的大型外企公司,意味着优渥的待遇,体面稳定的职场环境和潜力无限的未来,也代表了很多人对于一份工作的最高想象。时过境迁,当裁员潮下的外企人被迫走出“舒适圈”,才发现世界早就变了。

李莉就是其中之一。来自农村的她,一路考到北京的研究生,2011年毕业后,直接进入了IBM工作,一待就是13年。在那里,她遇见了自己的爱人,前后生了两个小孩。直到去年,成为裁员名单上的一员。对李莉来说,IBM不仅仅是一个工作的地方,也在某种程度上塑造了她的人生。当然,她也完整地见证了IBM这艘巨轮从黄金时代到逐渐沉船的过程。

CDT 档案卡
标题:打工13年,我成了“最后一代外企人”
作者:每日人物
发表日期:2025.5.8
来源:微信公众号“每日人物”
主题归类:外企
CDS收藏:人物馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

以下是李莉的讲述:

文 | 王潇

编辑 | Yang

运营 | 小二郎

生存的边缘

离开IBM半年后,再聊到它,我发现除了工作的部分,还有很多对青春的怀念。

我研究生毕业就直接进了IBM的研发中心,一工作就是13年,直到被裁。这13年里,我在IBM遇到了爱人,前后生了两个小孩。我有意识地自我观察,发现其实IBM一直在塑造着我,从某种程度来说,它已经变成了我生命中的一部分。

这种塑造很难说清楚。在一个环境里待久了,人自然就会被改变。或许,在有选择的情况下,我又入职了一家外企,这本身就能说明一些影响吧。

image
▲ 2024年10月30日是李莉在IBM的最后一天。图 /@虎虎生威-本人 视频截图

其实,当时知道要裁员后,我是不想再去外企的。IBM从1984年就进入中国了,是一家老牌企业。如今,连IBM都开始裁员并撤出中国,这在很多人的眼里,是一个信号:可能很难再找到一家稳定且待遇好的外企了。

而且,本身外企的工作机会就在减少,正式离职前,我面试的大多都是民企和国企。其实,我做了一些心理准备,比如可能加班很多,或者要更讲究人情。可真到面试的时候,还是会有出乎意料的时刻。我记得在面试一家国企的时候,领导坐在办公室的沙发里问问题,中途还点起一支烟,没聊多久,还有员工开门进来帮我们倒茶水。细究起来,这些都是小事,但是就感觉和我之前参加过的面试不太一样。

这些细碎的时刻让我逐渐意识到:本土企业和外企,文化底色是不同的。我抱着求稳的心态,原本打算入职一家国企,可后来,突然又接到了另一家外企的offer。理智告诉我,国企更适合现在的我,作为一个快40岁的二胎妈妈,虽然在国企很难再有上升空间,但至少是个“铁饭碗”。但当一个外企offer摆在面前时,我心里的天平明显倾斜了——外企的职场的年龄焦虑没有那么严重,努努力没准还有上升空间,我想着“要不再冲一把”。最终又回到了外企里。

image
▲ 从IBM离开两个月后,李莉找到了新工作。图 / @虎虎生威-本人视频截图

我原本以为,大家都像我一样幸运。去年八月,IBM宣布关闭中国研发部门,整个研发中心1000多人,包括一线经理、二线经理都要被裁。当时关于IBM裁员的新闻很多,毕竟是一家世界500强名企,立马有很多猎头联系我们,原本的工作群直接变成了找工作群,每天同事们都会在群里丢各种招聘信息。所以很幸运地,我没有经历过海投简历无门的情况,面试排得很满,我还专门列了一张Excel表格,平均看下来,每周都有两三个面试。

所以我天然地以为,同事们也和我一样,不缺选择。可前段时间,我和以前的同事一起聚餐,才发现事情不是这样的。有些同事在找新工作时还被降了薪,甚至有人还没找到工作。

我还在外企,所以要适应的地方不多,但其他人的情况就大不相同了。我爱人的新公司是一家民企,刚入职五个月,我们的生活已经在发生变化了。原本,我们都在IBM工作时,6点多下班,有很多时间可以一起陪孩子。有时会逛超市,有时带小孩去附近的公园玩。可现在,准点下班变成了少数情况,只能尽量争取一个人早点下班陪伴小孩。一个人带两个小孩是很耗费精力的,所以我一般只陪他们在家玩,很少像以前一样下班后全家一起出门了。

就算同样入职了外企,情况也有所不同。今年,裁员的外企更多了,几乎每月都有新消息。四月,PayPal(美国在线支付服务商)被传出将撤出中国,裁员比例高达80%。

我的一个前同事,入职了一家规模比较小的外企,我能明显感受到她的不安。她刚入职不久,就有员工被优化了,她只能每天谨言慎行,努力保住一份工作,毕竟现在的大环境哪里都不稳定。我还有一个在国企工作的朋友,在我的认知里,国企就代表着稳定,可是前段时间他们公司也传出,员工名额开始缩减的消息。

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▲ 就算是大众心里代表稳定的国企,也有员工名额缩减的情况。图 / 视觉中国

其实从离职后,我渐渐没有再关注IBM的新闻了,直到今年三月份,朋友圈突然多了很多关于离别的动态。我上网一查,才知道IBM(中国区)彻底关停了,在中国的研发职能全面撤离,北京、上海、大连等地1800多名员工面临离职,我原本工作的北京环宇大厦办公区也开始拆除设备。

原本我们会觉得工作没了大不了再找,可现在放眼望去,真正能承接自己的机会似乎在减少。对于我们这个年龄层的人来说,大多数人还在生存的边缘挣扎。

黄金年代

我算是见证了IBM从最辉煌走向落幕的全过程。

我之前在北京的一所大学读研,2011年毕业后,进入到IBM工作。那时候,国内的互联网行业初露头角,很多互联网公司在各大高校开出高薪抢人。相比之下,IBM给到的年薪会比互联网公司低一些,但有可能解决北京户口。

我是从农村一步一步考出来的,家里几乎不能托举我在大城市的人生。我得依靠自己的力量在北京落户、安家。所以,对于那时的我来说,IBM算得上是最优选,那段时间刚好也是IBM在中国的黄金年代。

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▲ IBM于1984年正式进入中国市场‌。当时,IBM在北京设立了代表处‌。图 / 视觉中国

外企是从1992年开始全面进入中国并持续增长,到2012年,有人把这20年称为外企的黄金时代。你去看IBM的财报,2012年是营收表现最好的一年,净利润高达166亿美元。

那段时间,我明显感觉到身边人对于IBM的向往。先是父母,他们一直都是很低调的人,我到大城市读书,入职IBM,他们很少直接夸奖,但过年的时候,亲戚问起我的工作,我能清晰地看到父母脸上骄傲的表情;我入职IBM后,还经常有身边的朋友拜托我介绍相亲,就像前几年的国内互联网大厂一样,IBM一度也是相亲市场里的加分项;还经常有人向我打听公司有没有新的招聘计划,能不能进来做实习生。

我性格里有很像父母的一部分。从小到大,我都很踏实,一步一个脚印地学。我发现IBM和我的性格底色也是很相合的。工作中,我大部分的时间是和计算机打交道,人际关系很简单。我更习惯踏踏实实干活,而不是在领导面前表现自己。不过,当时的领导是会把我的成果看在眼里,也不太需要我去刻意表现,还会去替我争取机会。

入职后差不多2年,我的职级就升了一级,紧接着又差不多3年,又升了一级,相当于5年升两级。这个速度在IBM也算是升得很快了。

那几年也是我最意气风发的时候。手握好几个重要项目,感觉好像不论干什么都能成。一般而言,要想在职场里长久地生存,都免不了要主动拓圈,多交朋友。但我不太习惯主动社交,在IBM,我只管把活干好,其他什么都不用想。

那几年也不缺项目,总有新客户进来。有的项目如果活太多,干起来太累,我和同事还会相互开玩笑,“要不这个活干脆不要了”。

当时在IBM工作最大的感受是舒服——人际关系简单,上班相对自由,不强制打卡,要想早下班简单说一声就行。

人在同一个环境里待久了,难免对一切都会习以为常,但有时候外部视角其实会有更多发现。我有拍视频的习惯,快离职时,我把工位的视频发到了网上,有人评论,“都要离职了工位还保持得这么整洁”。那时候,我才突然意识到这一点,公司没有相关规定,但好像真的不管什么时候,大家都会自觉地维护办公区或者桌面的整洁。

我开始思考背后的原因,就像酒店退房,或者出租屋退租时,我们并不会刻意保持整洁,因为觉得那不是家。但在IBM,我的确感受到了归属感。

image
▲ 图 / @虎虎生威-本人 视频截图

这也是IBM有意强化的部分。刚工作时,我的心态是“我干活,你付钱”,慢慢地这个想法被公司里的很多人和事改变了。比如,从入职起,我们就定时有领导一对一聊天,去帮我调整工作状态,或者解决问题。

还有定期组织的家庭日,设置亲子活动区,有针对幼龄的项目,也有针对大一点小孩的计算机科普类的项目。

在这种氛围的感染下,我时常会萌生一种想法:在这里一直干到退休,也挺好的。

从刚进公司一直到2018年左右,都是我的职业上升期,可能因为自己在走上坡路,就有些忽视了大环境是在慢慢发生着变化的。自2012年之后,公司的净利润一直都是下降的,也就是说,公司赚钱的增速正在逐渐放缓。仔细回想,其实那几年公司也时不时在裁员,有时会放出一些名额缩减计划。

如果放到现在往回看,当时的IBM在战略上是出现了问题的。从后来的互联网行业走向看,那些抓住了云计算、AI等先机的公司都迎来了更好的发展,错失云计算可能就是IBM沉船的开端。IBM很早就有开拓云计算市场的计划,但实际操作上,一直没有被真正重视。

直到2013年,IBM才正式进入公有云的市场,只能一直在边缘徘徊。

最后一代外企人

我对水温的改变,是有些后知后觉的。到现在我的感受是,我们这些人在某种程度上来说,似乎变成了最后一代外企人。

改变是从2019年开始显现。先是员工人数在减少。招的人变少了,原本走了一个会再招一个补齐,后来就走一个少一个,不再招新人进来。升职机会也在减少,哪怕领导已经尽力帮我向总部争取,我也没有再升职。公司里的年轻人,也没有像我刚入职时那样,能够获得晋升名额。

公司上升时,我们挑活干,但下行时只要有项目就接。这时候我们也开始琢磨新办法,找机会,体现团队价值。

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▲ 图 / 电视剧《理想之城》

我开始想客户可能有哪些新需求,再和团队往相同的方向努力一下。也差不多从那时起,我心里开始默默的看项目的时间线,看能不能撑满这一年。但在上升时期,我从来没有列过这种计划,活根本干不完。

公司的流动性也开始变大,年轻的员工会离职,其实也可以理解,那时的IBM就像是一艘即将沉没的巨轮,哪个年轻人愿意在这样一艘船上耗费青春呢。

如果是对市场很敏锐的人,或许是可以清楚地感知到巨轮是在不断下沉的。很多原本战略上的失误和周围环境改变所造成的影响都在慢慢显现。像之前云计算战略上的失误,导致后期IBM这家互联网巨头只能在市场边缘试探。根据市场研究机构Gartner调研数据,2017年时,全球公共云市场已经进入了3A竞争格局,亚马逊、微软、阿里云合计市场份额达到70.3%,其余若干家就只能分食剩下的29.7%。

AI战略的失误也开始出现。IBM其实算是AI产业的先行者,上世纪就开始投资AI了,可后来很长一段时间,IBM都把宝押在了医疗领域上,错失了AI的风口。

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▲ 早期的IBM电脑。图 / 视觉中国

再加上国内互联网大厂开始不再使用国外的IT设备,而转向本土化设备,这对IBM、Oracle(甲骨文)等提供IT设备的外企带来了很大影响。

把这些都放在一起考虑,很容易就会发现,IBM的颓势是止不住的。可当时的生活实在太舒服了,最忙的时候,加班也只到七、八点左右。所以即使行业在往下走,人就会像温水煮青蛙一样,很难立刻感知到风向的变化。

在2021年之前,我对这些变化都是没有察觉的。虽然在走下坡路,但排一排,每年的事情还都是满的。只是觉得大家似乎变得更清闲了,下班后业余的时间更多了。可等到2021年的时候,我突然发现公司已经很久没有招人了,团队的人走一个少一个,这其实是很可怕的一件事。

等到2023年时,我身边的很多老员工也开始明显地感受到危机。那时候,身边好几个同事提醒我要更留意个人能力的提升,为以后找新工作做准备。我们平时的聊天话题也发生了变化,从担心工作稳定,到自我安慰应该不会真的大规模裁员,再到最后摆烂一般“就算真裁了,也至少能拿个包吧”。

我和爱人开始慢慢地做出调整。有意识地学更多新知识,琢磨新技术的更新,为自己的未来留后路。

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▲ 图 / @虎虎生威-本人视频截图

如今回想起来,之前也有很多机会可以走,但如果放在每个时段的当下,我的选择并不多。像职业上升期的那几年,每年都有新挑战,我的角色也在不断成长,没有走的必要。等开始走下坡路时,我已经和爱人结婚了,作为女性,如果那时去找工作,已婚未育的状态,很难找到一家待遇更好、更稳定的公司。等到了2019年,我生了第一个小孩,2022年时,老二又出生了。

等到2023年大家都开始焦虑时,我又已经过了35岁,以这个年纪再想找到一份更好的工作,也是件难事,还不如继续留在IBM。好像人生真的是一环套着一环的,总以为有无数个机会可以从一艘即将沉没的船里逃走,但实际上,这艘沉船已经是当下最好的选择了。

当然,我一直没有离职还有一层原因,是没觉得自己真的会被裁。我一直想的是,公司可能会做一些人员优化,但总该留一些人,被裁的几率不会很大。

我甚至还考虑过把房子换到公司附近,结果还没行动,裁员的消息就来了,我真的特别意外,怎么都想不到会全部裁掉。

现在想来,我依然清晰地记得裁员时的状况,整个过程迅捷、高效,甚至有些猝不及防。先是周五时,我还在加班,可公司内网的权限突然被收回,我当时打给经理询问,才得知“要裁员了”。

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▲ 得知裁员消息后,仍然每天按时出门上班。图 / @虎虎生威-本人 视频截图

我还算得知信息早的,对于大多数员工来说,通知是周一早上才下达的。那时,天下着小雨,IBM通知召开全员大会,一众人冒雨到达公司,会议只进行了三分钟,宣布大规模裁员,迅速结束,紧接着,员工们被移除工作群组,内网无法登录。雨还没停,一会议室的同事们就从外企职场人都变成了待业人群。

曾经熟悉的同事们,就这样各自奔向了自己新的跑道,渐渐疏于联系,只能偶尔相聚。

我从IBM离职了,好像生命中很重要的一部分落幕了,其实从某种程度来说,一个时代也在落幕。如今的年轻人,很难像我们当年一样,有很多入职老牌外企的机会了,我们这代外企人好像变成了最后一代。

(李莉为化名。)

参考资料:

[1].《IBM失去的十年:错失云计算机遇,豪赌AI失败》,砾石商业评论 [2].《“老板”也在裁员名单中!IBM突发裁员,中国研发部门一锅端》,凤凰网财经

谷雨实验室|打击缅甸电诈之后

8 May 2025 at 19:01

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我在湄索遇到的每一个人,在得知我是中国人后,几乎都会用并不熟练却异常清晰的普通话吐出他们知道的唯一一个中文词语 ——“诈骗”。

湄索,这个与缅甸妙瓦底仅一河之隔的泰国边境城市,所有缅东电信诈骗从业者的必经之地,因为商业片《孤注一掷》和演员王星被人口贩卖到妙瓦底诈骗园区,两次成为中文互联网最风口浪尖的话题。

今年2月下旬,中泰缅三国在泰缅边境开展联合行动,是缅东诈骗产业自2023年底以来的力度最强的一次清扫。湄索正经历由此引发的一连串连锁反应,成为供我们一窥电诈生态变化的窗口。

3月初,在王星事件的两个月后,我和朋友为记录边境缅甸难民学童的故事来到湄索,机缘巧合之下,见到并对话了刚刚逃回的人口贩运受害者、疑似电诈园区管理层、为园区和缅甸民族武装供货的边境商人、解救受害者的在地组织,和很多在这里生活的际遇行业各不相同的普通人。

我们的所见所闻只是冰山一角,但或许也可以拼凑出一幅粗糙的图景——泰缅边境的电诈产业面临的又一轮清剿、压制,和在这一过程中,园区的预备、博弈、转型、甚至转移。以及这一切对湄索意味着什么。

CDT 档案卡
标题:打击缅甸电诈之后
作者:赵睿思 王佳薇
发表日期:2025.5.8
来源:微信公众号“谷雨实验室”
主题归类:演员王星失联事件
CDS收藏:人物馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

消失的中国人

3月7日,我从曼谷出发,乘坐每天一班的飞机前往湄索,航程只需50分钟,和飞清迈差不多,价格却是后者的四五倍。这一架次的飞机由于常年坐满了在湄索中转,要前往妙瓦底的人,被当地人戏称为“电诈专机”。

正值王星事件引发的“东南亚恐慌”和新一轮的电诈清扫,这架客载量180人上下的小型客机如今仅售出了不到五分之一的座位,加上我也只有三四个中国人。

湄索机场的到达大厅有一家叫“YATAI INTERNATIONAL”的茶叶店,据正面连接报道,它曾是泰缅边境最大的电诈园区“亚太城”开的,专门用来接待从曼谷飞来的电诈公司老板们,供其喝茶歇脚,如今陈设、商品已经全部被搬空。一同消失的还有大厅里的其他门面,灯牌都被拆下来倚靠在一旁,保持营业状态的只有一个航空公司柜台,一个连锁便利店,一个临时边境检查台和旁边站着的一群泰国警察。

看到我的中国护照,检查点的警察如临大敌,从怀里掏出手机拍照留底我的护照、泰国的长期签证、工作证、租房合同、TM30(泰国长期居留外国人向移民局报道的手续),并在填表过程中反复确认,“你知道这里的情况吗?就是诈骗。”“你确定不去缅甸吗?真的确定不去?”

大厅里摆了几排中泰双语的红黄蓝配色警示牌,零星几个在边角上标注了英文翻译,“请勿轻信境外高薪招聘信息,请勿非法偷渡”,“缅甸边境沿线只有损失,浪费时间,浪费金钱,浪费自由,危险生命”。

我经常能在泰国媒体上看到有疑似人口贩运受害者的中国游客在湄索机场被遣返的报道,甚至仅提及目的地是湄索,就会上海关的特别观察名单,影响下次入境。

从常规陆路进城也几乎是不现实的。我的朋友从清迈出发的大巴来被湄索城郊检查站卡住,作为全车唯一的中国人,他被喊下车,要求必须有湄索本地人前往检查站担保,否则只能原路遣返。在警车里睡了一晚后,边境难民学校的社工蓬带着一叠机构资质和身份文件来证明他的访问目的,才把他带出来。

作为朋友在湄索行动的实名担保人,蓬反复要求我们承诺不过河,远离国境线的丛林。我理解他的顾虑,就像边检警察拒绝朋友进城的理由,“我见过太多中国人,如果我现在让你进入这座城市,你今晚就会消失在河边。”

也许因为严格的出入城管制,我们在湄索期间,没在公共场所里见到一个中国人——这很不同寻常,在电诈产业疯长的几年里,这里几乎已经成为一个缅泰中三国人口共生之地。城中心几条商业街上,不少挂着春联灯笼的店铺都拉下了卷帘门。

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泰缅边境线的管控也更严密了。

紧贴着泰缅友谊大桥和作为国境线的莫艾河的十字路口,是本地最繁荣的边境市场,在这里你可以找到能想到绝大多数的泰国和缅甸小商品、宝石,甚至中国产的电器、器皿、零食。市场靠河的一面是一排露天集市摊位,主要卖海鲜和烟酒,他们被一道齐腰高的铁丝网挡住,那边就是缅甸了。朋友买了一包巧克力爆珠烟,我们隔着带刺的铁丝网递钱过去,他们再把商品递过来。即便防止偷渡的力量在不断加强,但边境线上有隙可乘,我看到其中的几段围栏上被套了厚纸壳,卖货的缅甸青年可以轻松地跨过去而不至于划伤大腿。

卖烟给我们的缅甸大哥问我们是哪里人,我们说中国。“以前每天都有20来个中国人来这买烟,最近都见不到了。你知道的,诈骗。”他缅甸语和英语夹杂着讲,最后两个字说得是中文,字正腔圆的。

即便能证明是出于正规目的,妙瓦底的缅甸人如今也几乎无法通过第一泰缅友谊大桥来到湄索。而为了应对更无处不在的偷渡,泰国一侧在作为国境线的莫艾河沿岸新设了大量检查站,摆着和机场一样的电诈警示牌。在与对岸园区最密集的河段,几乎每隔一两公里就有两三个迷彩服打扮的泰国士兵设卡驻守,他们中很大一部分来自曼谷和彭世洛的部队,临时派遣驻扎来湄索,以增强威慑。

我们入住酒店的前台说,2月底以前,他每周末都会接待十来个只会讲中文的人,由一个讲缅甸语的人与他沟通开房。他们持湄索口岸签发的的出入境卡,但使用的缅甸语假名。我们猜测这些是由缅甸华人带着出来过周末的园区中高层或蛇头,但前台说近期没再见过他们了。

出逃的受害者,人口贩卖受阻,诈骗“用工荒”

3月8日,我和朋友在酒店大堂等网约车,一个身材高大但神色紧张的青年男人主动上前搭话,向我们借手机给家人报平安。四个小时前,他刚刚渡过作为国境线的莫艾河,并向逃出电诈园区后遇到的第一群中国人——也就是我们——求助。

他叫小杨,自称于2月16日被发小骗来曼谷“救急虚拟币业务”半个月,机酒全包。落地两天后,他被贩运至妙瓦底以南16公里的欧亿公司。

小杨被贩运的路线很复杂,从曼谷出发,每一百公里换乘2次私家车,之后每十来分钟更换一辆皮卡车,换了7次,到达山区。那时他已经感到不妙,但语言不通,打不到车,又前不着村后不着店,只能继续跟着走。被进山关卡挡住后,他被要求步行翻山,四五十分钟后到达另一条山路,又接连换乘八辆摩托。每换一次,司机都会给他拍一张照片来确认身份。像一件快递在流水线上被传送整整一天后,他最终在渡河后被送往园区。

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欧亿园区

今年2月以来,米歇尔观察到泰缅边境线上的人口贩运路线发生了变化,在此之前,她在湄索生活了11年,在反人口贩卖组织(Global Alms)从事受害者救援工作。

米歇尔此前接触的受害者们大多直接乘坐私家车或公共交通从曼谷来到湄索,当夜入住酒店,第二天一早再被车接走,最多换车两到三次抵达河边并渡河。而近几个月,为了规避沿河增设的边境检查点,蛇头们开始启用更多的山区路线和更频繁的换乘。

重重封锁之下,泰缅边境线上的人口贩运仍在进行,但正变得越来越困难,这最直接的结果是——妙瓦底,尤其是那些资金和关系网络相对薄弱的小公司,开始面临劳动力短缺。

小杨被贩运到妙瓦底的路上看到一皮卡车一皮卡车的人反方向被送离缅甸。被困欧亿公司的半个多月里,他只见过两个在他之后来的新人,而同一批交赔付离开的有二十人。

这笔赎金交得也并不容易,公司一开始称转账3万美元放人,小杨父亲同意后,人事负责人又临时反悔,“他说最近人比较难进来,老板不肯放人,让我好好干一年,合同到期不用赔付都放我走。”

据小杨和本地NGO提供的信息,直到为应付近期清扫,泰缅边境第二大电诈园 “KK园区”向周边小公司施压(妙瓦底的大公司通常可以对小公司施加影响甚至下达命令),允许非自愿被贩卖的员工离开,小杨才获得了离园机会。据小杨说,临行前夜,他组里一个被骗招来但凑不出赎金的台湾单亲妈妈偷溜进他的宿舍,在他鞋垫下塞了写有妹妹电话的纸条,求他回家后帮忙联系想办法。小杨前后被四批不同的妙瓦底地方武装交接,在缅甸农民家等到凌晨出发,最终渡河回到湄索。

想要回国的人在缴清赔付和路费后,电诈公司会根据持有护照的情况设计不同的路线。

有护照且泰国签证没过期的,就送过河后正常从湄索坐飞机回国,无论谁问起都统一回答“没到过缅甸”。有护照但签证过期的,全部送到湄索移民局交罚款,逾期每天交500铢,上限2万,交完后也可以正常离境。

那些没有护照被一路偷渡来妙瓦底的,公司一般提供两个选项,明码标价。交不起回国路费的,过河后直接向湄索警察局自首,拘留28天后移交移民局,移民局再关数月后遣返回国,期间伙食费用自理,一般要花个800美元左右。如果不想蹲这么久移民监,交1500美元20天左右就可以回家。负担得起回国路费的,公司会联系蛇头安排偷渡路线,妙瓦底过河后经由泰国、老挝,一路回云南。第一次偷渡的人可直接在海关口岸自首,只需缴纳罚款,不会被判刑。

在湄索进出城管控,新设更多国境线检查点之外,泰缅边境线的人口贩运愈来愈困难的另一原因,是地方犯罪庇护网络的松动。

湄索本地人跟我闲聊时提到,有曾与电诈园区关系密切的警察局高层“被带走审查了”。我回到曼谷两天后,泰国官方确认了消息,曾负责处理湄索偷渡和走私问题长达四年的泰国皇家警署副总监被控“联合非法赌博团体罪”和“洗钱罪” 而被免职调查,一起被革职的还有他的四名下属。

缅东电诈何以特殊

在电诈公司们入驻对岸的妙瓦底前,湄索就像大多数不怎么发达的边陲小城那样,以边境贸易、纺织和农业为主要营生。在城里闲逛,随处可见售卖传统印花服装的低矮店铺,和琳琅满目摆着电器、餐具、汽修、玩具的杂货摊。

这里是泰国向缅甸出口货物最方便的地方,得益于完善的公路系统,来自泰国东海岸的集装箱卡车一天就能抵达这里。马路旁停放的车基本都是日产,从这里卖往到河对岸的也是。由于缅甸道路状况不佳,这个城镇就是装载着日本进口的二手汽车、摩托车和卡车的最后一站,商人们在码头上将集装箱装卸,和日用品等其他货物一起运往缅甸。

牛也是这里的主角。泰国的牛养殖业并不发达,每年都需要从缅甸进口大量的牛肉,其中湄索口岸通关的最多。每个月有超过一万头缅甸活牛从这里进入泰国——边境商人常常通过向畜牧官员支付每头牛一两千铢的费用避开30天的病毒检疫——被包装成检疫合格的产品送上泰国人的餐桌。

边境在这里并不是一个严格的界限。每天有大量的缅甸人跨越边境来到泰国工作,成为农场和工厂里沉默的螺丝钉。在湄索的缅甸人口甚至超过泰国人口的7倍,在底层劳动力市场也更受欢迎——他们便宜又能吃苦。

电诈改变了这里。2017、18年前后,“亚太城”最早在妙瓦底北部的水沟谷开始建设——时至今天仍是泰缅国境线上规模最大的电诈园区。潮水一样的中国人来到湄索,短暂停留后前往对岸的妙瓦底,沿着莫艾河,断断续续上百公里的钢筋水泥拔地而起,取代了山谷田地,建起一条灰色里夹着霓虹灯的“边境城墙”。城墙那头,是赌场、夜场、饭馆、酒店、游乐园,像毒蛇的獠牙紧咬在边境线上吸食血液。

18年底19年初,米歇尔在河对岸发现了脚手架和起重机,那里曾经除了树和低矮的村房什么都没有,慢慢地,一片一片的高楼出现在地平线上。当时,湄索作为经济特区已启动建设两年多,她起初以为那只是工厂。随后新冠爆发,由于缅甸在疫苗接种和疫情控制方面的严重滞后,湄索和其连接妙瓦底的口岸封锁超过两年。完全投射在新冠疫情的聚光灯照不到的阴影处,开始实施封闭式管理的园区成了一方自治天地,电诈公司在其中不受约束地成长,为所欲为。直到结束疫情封锁的2022年,第一批受害者出来时,米歇尔才知道,这是用于诈骗的。

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电诈公司为这座边境城市带来了更多的物资和贸易需求,以及与之相伴的溢价。以过河为例,渡一名缅甸人过河(其实是偷渡)从新冠疫情以前的20铢,涨到现在的2000铢,其他国家人则要支付更高的价码,中国人最贵。

现代奴隶制在诈骗公司里野草一样地疯长,几乎不受任何现代法度约束,反而更依赖与民间地方武装的紧密关系。为了获得庇护,电诈园区需向控制地盘的地方军缴纳土地租金和物业费分成,而人口贩运、渡河等关键环节,也需支付额外费用,以换取“默许”或“护送”。

一位湄索的边境贸易商人告诉我们,2018年以前,妙瓦底的地方军“特别穷”,基本上只买些食物、衣服之类的基础物资。但如今在电诈园区的“供养”下,他们的采购清单换血升级——军用雷达、战术头盔、防弹背心、豪车、名表,样样不缺。

公司与地方割据武装相勾结,这也使缅东地区在整个东南亚的电信诈骗产业中都极为特殊。

“在我经手的上百个案例中,缅东,尤其是克伦邦妙瓦底的受害者是最难解救的。”阿曼达说,她在全球反诈骗组织GASO从事东南亚电诈受害者救援工作,目前长居柬埔寨。

如果受困于在柬埔寨的电诈园区,GASO的营救路径通常是指直接联系柬埔寨内政部,由内政部帮助立案并直接交给受害者所在的省,由省指派管辖范围内的警察局直接去园区要人,基本可以实现零赔付捞人,“三年以来没有(营救)失败的案例”,阿曼达认为,“无论怎么样,一个完整的国家,维护名誉还是比赚钱收保护费重要。”

这在缅甸基本上无法实现。自1948年独立以来,缅甸内战不断。2021年春天,缅甸军方政变推翻了民选政府并拘禁昂山素季等前政府高层,更加剧了政府军和民族地方武装组织的混战。妙瓦底所在的克伦邦远离中央政府管辖,基本由几支民族地方武装控制——他们彼此因政治立场和宗教信仰而分裂,对电诈园区的实际控制权也时常更替。

在妙瓦底混乱的治理真空,救援经常要通过营救人员个人在地方武装、园区之间打通关系来达成实现,很多时候也只能通过家属向园区赔付再额外支付过河费把人捞出来。不同国籍的受害者赎金价码不同,阿曼达介绍,马来西亚人5000-7000美元,越南人大约8000美元,中国人则高达3-5万美元。相比之下,在缅甸政府军控制的区域实施救援难度甚至略低于地方武装割据的缅东地区。

断电、断网、断油,回合制博弈

当我们在谈论缅东的电诈清扫行动时,不能将其简单地理解为一种单向度的“打击与挨打”。事实远比这复杂得多——这是一场反复交锋、策略不断演变的博弈,电诈集团与国家治理力量围绕这条边境线展开你来我往的攻防。

控制边境人员流动之外,最被中文互联网熟知的打击手段还包括断电、断网和停止燃油供应。缅东地区长期依赖泰国的基础设施,以妙瓦底为例,其网络、电力几乎100%来自泰国,生活和生产物资也大多通过边境贸易获得。

2月5日,泰国省电力局宣布对与其签署有供电合同的五个缅甸边境地区断电,这些区域分别为中泰合作打击诈骗行动的三个目标——孟邦帕亚通祖、掸邦大其力、和克伦邦妙瓦底供电。这被视为是一次精准且有力的威慑。

但电诈公司早有准备。2023年底,妙瓦底所在的缅东地区已经经历过几轮清扫,如今很多大公司早已配备了发电机。而在这一轮断电宣布的前两天,路透社报道称,又见到了几批新的大型发电机抵达帕亚通祖,许多当地居民面临停电,但电诈公司却能维持运转。

甚至更早,泰缅边境的公司就开始预备转移对泰国能源的完全依赖。2022年,缅东大其力的园区就与老挝国有电力公司签署供电协议。

电力在这里成为外交的角力场,而电诈公司穿梭其间。大其力通讯社称,今年2月的断电行动开始当天,老挝对缅东的电力供应翻了一倍,以弥补泰国方面断电后的能源短缺。直到两天后,也就是老挝能源矿产部长会面中国驻老挝大使的前夜,老挝将对大其力的供电量削减回一半,并发文称将调查该地区可能存在的电力滥用问题。

相比之下,断网的杀伤力大些,但园区也并不是毫无还手之力。去年6月,阿曼达收到一封来自泰昌园区的求救邮件,信中提到了这家公认边境线上最黑的电诈园区正在安装埃隆·马斯克的星链——这种曾经为乌克兰等战区提供网络的卫星系统,开始飞速在缅东园区的建筑物顶扩张领地,以应对断网。据《连线》杂志统计,在过去四个月内,KK、泰昌等个电诈园区将星链设置为互联网提供商,使用次数超过4万次。

甚至更“原始”的方法也开始被启用。前面提到的那位边境贸易商人还告诉我们,2月8日开始,他被要求不能再向缅甸销售柴油和汽油。而稍早些时候,妙瓦底的电诈园区们从他那里采购了大量插卡路由器,插入手机SIM卡可以将热点充作WIFI。

但无论星链,还是插卡路由器配合SIM卡,这些方法比起普通光线宽带,成本更高,网速更慢,对于高度依赖网络,群发骗招信息、人口贩卖、日常诈骗和洗钱的电诈园区来说,就像抽去了釜中的一棵粗壮的薪柴。

2月20日,中泰缅三国开始针对妙瓦底电诈展开联合行动,中国公安部陆续派遣警察到湄索进行中国籍相关人员的解救和押解工作。很巧合地,我们和工作组警察住在湄索同一家酒店。办理入住时,我看见十几个身材健壮的中青年男性讲着中文上楼,当时还以为是误打误撞订到了那家传闻中专供从业者落脚、交换不同园区待遇情报的“电诈酒店”。有趣的是,当我们真的找到那家电诈酒店时,这里同样住满了中国公安。

电诈酒店斜对面十几米远,有一家“客家餐厅”,我们在那里遇到三个当天早上刚从妙瓦底过来的青年。他们反复称自己和电诈无关,但他们说对岸的园区目前仍正常运转,提及对“不听话”的员工用刑时一直说“家里的规矩”,我们推测他们是电诈公司管理层。在严格进出城管制和清扫的当下,他们仍有自如往返国境线的渠道。

对缅甸电诈的打击是一场跨国合作,需要考虑各国的法律和现实情况,这导致押解和解救工作很难一蹴而就。同酒店遇到的公安向我们解释了电诈人员的解救问题,这些滞留在妙瓦底的中国电诈从业者绝大多数是从湄索偷渡入境,若想回国,他们必须先回到湄索,走一遍泰国的司法程序。此外,每天包机数量有限,即使中缅泰三国联合行动有便捷通道,遣返流程依然需要时间。再加上跨境执法和缅东民族武装的割据格局,想要一股脑把所有中国人带回国,并不现实。

此外,据公开报道和公安的确认,无论是自愿前往还是被人口贩运,他们都需要在回国后根据实际参与电诈的程度接受法律审判。

转型,业务模式转变,国际盘

最近两个月,阿曼达在柬埔寨见到了不少熟面孔。那些电诈园区曾在2022年的柬埔寨西港“918”清扫电诈行动后转移到缅甸,如今又因为缅北和缅东地区的打击行动而搬回柬埔寨。

今年年初以来,柬埔寨东部毗邻越南的蒙多基里地区正在建起新一批的“诈骗城市”,成为被泰国在与缅甸、柬埔寨边境的清扫驱离的电诈园区们的下一落脚点。

离开的园区换了一处春风吹又生,而这条边境上选择留下来的公司也需要转型。

臭名昭著的亚太城、KK等大园区早在一年多前就开始调整策略,包括来去相对自由,名义上反对人口贩运的“规范”招聘,以及减少会造成直接致死致残的体罚。这看似更加“文明”的转变背后的逻辑仍是赤裸的。

在妙瓦底,公司不会在一个月内无法恢复工作能力的伤病上投入医疗和食宿成本,小杨和本地NGO告诉我,伤员会被视为失去价值并被转卖给其他园区,甚至公海(尽管器官交易实际上极少发生),或者不等没气就直接埋了。

而如今,由于国内反诈宣传普及、边境管控的加强,跨境拐骗链条难以维系,“劳动力”成了更珍贵的资源。一切依旧是为了攫取更大利益——正如奴隶主不会轻易杀死奴隶,以避免损失自己的“财产”。

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泰缅边境上那些不愿转型的公司,会押着员工躲进更偏僻隐蔽的山上,搬入更难以被锁定的“黑园区”。但现在,他们也到了生存还是改变的十字路口。

小杨所在的欧亿就是年前从电诈园区更聚集的通达搬到山上,如今这里只有他们一家公司。比他早来一个月的老员工告诉小杨,“他们刚来的时候都是先被吊起来几天,把你弄服。"小杨来时,公司已经开始走“怀柔”线路,他见到的几次被打得皮开肉绽的基本都是与公司绑定地更紧密的管理层,“他们想要长久,就想窝在那里赚钱,不想有人搞事情。”当然,这种“怀柔”是指仅仅不伤筋动骨但更花样百出的折磨,业绩不好的时候体罚鸭子步(双手背后完全屈膝状态下移动),或踩着指压板加班,晚上两点半下班,早上六点半继续工作。

妙瓦底园区的业务模式和目标市场也在转变。公司们纷纷转型“国际盘”。

有条件的大公司招聘印度、马来西亚、肯尼亚等地区的英语使用者。我在曼谷的同事曾为绿色工业合作拜访肯尼亚驻泰国大使,对方却滔滔不绝讲了半小时有多少肯尼亚人被困在泰缅边境搞电诈被折磨,他们远在非洲又缺乏资源,完全没有办法。

我们在湄索遇到了前加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉县地方副检察官艾琳,她因发现受理案件中越来越多被缅东杀猪盘诈骗的美国人而决定辞职,专门从事经济诈骗受害者服务。在来到边境后,她甚至真的曾成功追回过赃款。

小公司则无力进行同等的“国际化”转型。以小杨所在的欧亿为例,一百七八十人里除去三十个负责安保和后勤的缅工,大部分是骗招来的,他们年纪很小,文化水平不高,电脑拼音打字都需要现学(他们往往也是在两到三个月的新手保护期后因业绩差而最常被惩罚的),显然无力进行国际盘诈骗。即便如此,小公司们也已经放弃了日渐警惕的中国市场。

我想这背后的逻辑其实是一致的,被骗钱和被人口贩卖的中国人少了,中国政府的关注和打击也会减弱,而中国之外的一切,仍是一片“蓝海”。

莫艾河

湄索之行的最后一个下午,我和朋友决定去亲眼看看泰缅边境第一园区“亚太城”——离市中心不远,骑摩托向北半小时,就能抵达它的正对岸。一出镇子就是连片的甘蔗、玉米和蜀黍田,本地人说,这些不是经济作物而是作为动物饲料。种子和肥料都靠向湄索的中资企业贷款购买,等到收获时,农民自留一些,剩下的再卖回给这些企业。

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枯水期的莫艾河窄得只够一艘小轮渡在里面转个弯,水位刚没过成年男性的胸口。一路沿河行驶,没多久,我们甚至不用低头看地图,便知道已经到了。河岸这边仍是农田,对案已经是繁荣的城镇,高楼林立,最显眼的几栋少说有十几层高,我们在湄索都没看到这样有现代城市气质的建筑。

这是我们第二次见到莫艾河。上一次是去国境线上的寄宿制难民小学,正赶上期末考试结束,孩子们排队接种疫苗。朋友跟拍了一个缅甸学生,妈妈和姐姐从河对岸来看她,临走时她们手挽着手,涉水过河回家。

那天的河岸荒芜破败,我们却总感觉有干净的希望,眼前繁华的高楼却只能让我联想到浑浊血腥的脏污。

我模模糊糊地听到一阵笑声,朋友指着河对岸的一角让我去看——一群只穿着短裤的缅甸少年在浅滩游泳,在这短暂的一刻,他们像其他任何和平地方的孩子一样快乐,就好像诈骗和战争都没有存在过。

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