How al-Qaida-linked jihadist group JNIM is bringing Mali to its knees
Armed groups of JNIM fighters have blocked key routes used by fuel tankers, disrupting supply lines to the capital Bamako and other regions across Mali.
The al-Qaida-linked jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) is gradually converging on Mali’s capital, Bamako, with increasing attacks in recent weeks, including on army-backed convoys.
Should the city fall, the west African country would be on its way to becoming an Islamist republic with strict interpretations of sharia law.
That would fulfil a jihadist mandate following in the steps of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan or Syria, where the former rebel Ahmed al-Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is now head of state. In areas under its control, JNIM is already enforcing dress codes and punishments via courts that, as Human Rights Watch noted in a 2024 report, did not adhere to fair trial standards.
On Tuesday the US state department issued its second advisory in a week to its citizens in Mali, urging all US citizens to “depart immediately using commercial aviation”, citing infrastructural problems and the “unpredictability of Bamako’s [the capital] security situation”. On Wednesday, Australia, Germany and Italy also urged their citizens to leave as soon as possible.
Observers within and outside Mali say things could escalate faster and that the US’s warnings are the latest indication that the country is on the brink of a third successful coup in five years and the sixth since independence from France in September 1960.
“I don’t want to sound too dramatic, but the country is collapsing before our eyes,” a former Malian minister who now lives in exile told the Guardian anonymously. “I would not be shocked if another overthrow happens within the next few days.
“Before 31 December, a coup will happen in the Sahel,” the former official continued. “Mali will go first and then you’ll have the same domino effect that we’ve seen between 2020 and 2023, with all of these countries falling one after the other.”
Mali is grappling with a two-week fuel scarcity due to blockades targeting trucks from neighbouring Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Senegal, by JNIM. Drivers and soldiers have either been kidnapped or killed – or in some cases, both.
Landlocked Mali relies mostly on imports to keep its stuttering economy running. In the absence of the fuel trucks, life has come to a standstill in most of Bamako.
Long queues in gas stations are a common sight now, and in many parts of the city, there is no electricity. Shops and supermarkets are closed, as many people stay indoors, unable to find transport and prices of food items keep rising. Schools have also been shut down tentatively, until 9 November.
Analysts such as Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel programme at the German thinkthank Konrad Adenauer Foundation, say next week could be pivotal in the lifespan of the current junta.
“I think next week will be really bad, because then the existing stocks everybody’s living off will be gone,” he said. “It’s hard to see a way out. It’s just difficult to see how they can resupply the capital in sufficient quantities.”
Several analysts approached by the Guardian declined to comment on the matter, saying the regime’s sensitivity about comments deemed to not be strongly in its favour, is at an all-time high.
An Islamic state
“So far nobody is demonstrating against the government because I think they know if they brought down this government, then the next one would be an Islamist one so it can also kind of strengthen the regime’s resolve a bit,” said Laessing.
In June 2020, civil society, religious groups and opposition parties formed a protest coalition known as the June 5 Movement – Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP) that spearheaded large-scale protests against the democratically elected president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, citing corruption and worsening security.
Among the M5-RFP’s most visible figures was Mahmoud Dicko, an influential and controversial imam who first came to national spotlight with his role in the 1991 coup of the then president Moussa Traoré. The cleric’s mobilisation played a key role in forcing the collapse of the Keïta government.
During one meeting where the regional bloc Ecowas, or the Economic Community of West African States, mediated between the state and M5-RFP, Keïta dropped a shocker. “I was part of the meeting when he told Ecowas leaders that Imam Dicko wants Mali to become an Islamic country under sharia law,” the former minister said. “When he said that, hell broke loose.”
Within two months, soldiers led by Assimi Goïta, a young captain, took over government, replacing parliament with the National Transitional Council (NTC). A second coup within a year led to Goïta being sworn in as head of state.
However, the junta’s promises have mostly been unfulfilled. The NTC, headed by Col Malick Diaw, scheduled elections for February 2022 but has repeatedly postponed them.
In the meantime the death toll from the insurgency has risen sharply; the total since 2012 has exceeded 17,700, with more than two-thirds of that occurring after 2020, according to data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. JNIM, whose finances have been boosted by several high-profile ransoms paid for abductees, including Emirati citizens, is expanding operations to Benin and Nigeria in coastal west Africa.
Human rights groups have also alleged that Mali’s operations with Wagner mercenaries and pro-junta militias comprising hunter militias are rife with abuses.
End of the road?
The junta’s isolation seems nearly complete.
It signed a pact for military assistance with the regimes of Burkina Faso and Niger but the effect of that remains to be seen. Having broken off relations with Ecowas, Mali is also unable to draw on its military resources.
In recent years, some foreign diplomatic missions have scaled back their presence just as the junta expelled staff from other groups amid deteriorating relations with the west.
Consequently, there have been reports of increasing frustration within the ranks of the army, suggesting internal tensions among the five colonels who staged the first coup. Two of them, Diaw and the defence minister, Sadio Camara, are being mooted as potential successors who could replace Goïta.
Meanwhile, Dicko, who has been in exile in Algeria since 2023 after falling out with the government and losing his diplomatic passport, is expected to return.
“Some JNIM people are asking for Dicko to come back so they can negotiate with him instead of the Malian government,” the insider said. “This is their end goal, to turn Mali into an Islamic state and they’re very close.”
