In the lead-up to Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey, some Democrats wondered if Mikie Sherrill could pull off the improbable: winning three consecutive terms for the party for the first time since 1961.
Sherrill said Wednesday in an interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns on “The Conversation” podcast that she “never really felt too nervous about my ability to win this one.”
As early voting got underway, it became clear that it was “just a matter of how much we'd win by,” Sherrill said.
“The narrative was weird in the primary, and it was weird in the general, and I think some of that was because of how people felt from ’24, that there was still this kind of hangover from ’24 and how that race went,” she told POLITICO.
Sherrill speculated that some observers underestimated her campaign because it didn’t follow the model of “the traditional Democratic campaign” in New Jersey, where the legacy of machine politics looms large.
"Because we built this a different way, I think it wasn't as clear to people how we were doing it and how we were getting our votes out,” she said. “And I think that probably made some people nervous, but I would say that we invested a lot of time, energy and resources in a statewide field program, the likes of which have never been seen.”
Sherrill also said that her military background conveyed her "decisive” leadership style to voters, who she said trust her to deliver on promises like bringing down energy costs.
While she said she hasn’t yet spoken to President Donald Trump, the governor-elect told POLITICO that she’s intent on “clawing back as many resources into the state of New Jersey as possible.”
“I'm really hoping we can convince the administration, ‘hey, if you want to have a comeback in this economy, this is where you start and this is how you do it,’” she said.
Despite striking a message comfortably to the right of New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, Sherrill said she and her Democratic peers who saw electoral success across the board Tuesday have one thing in common: “This desire to make change that things aren't working for people.”
Listen to POLITICO's full conversation with Sherill on Friday's episode of “The Conversation."
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
Battleground Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — who has thwarted repeated GOP efforts to unseat him in a red district — will not seek reelection, writing in an op-ed Wednesday “that now is the right time to step away from elected office.”
Golden was facing both a primary challenge from his left and a strong challenge from former Maine GOP Gov. Paul LePage in the state’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump won by about 10 points in 2024.
“I have never loved politics,” Golden wrote in the Bangor Daily News. “But I find purpose and meaning in service, and the Marine in me has been able to slog along through the many aspects of politics I dislike by focusing on the good work that Congress is capable of producing with patience and determination.”
“But after 11 years as a legislator, I have grown tired of the increasing incivility and plain nastiness that are now common from some elements of our American community — behavior that, too often, our political leaders exhibit themselves,” he continued.
Golden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race buoys the campaign of Matt Dunlap, the state auditor who jumped in the race last month and attacked Golden from the left, accusing the fourth-term lawmaker of voting too often with Republicans in Congress.
Prior to Dunlap’s campaign launch, Golden’s campaign released polling showing Dunlap trailing LePage by 10 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly urged Dunlap not to challenge Golden — which the DCCC has not refuted.
Dunlap’s campaign rolled out a slate of dozens of endorsements last week, including one from a former state senator who was also listed as an endorser of Golden earlier this year.
In a social media statement, Dunlap praised Golden’s tenure in Congress.
“I want to thank Jared Golden for his military service and years in public office,” he wrote on X. “We may have disagreed on issues, but I believe he is a good person, husband, and father.
Golden said he was motivated to step away from public life in part due to the rise in political violence around the country — pointing to the killing of Charlie Kirk, the attempted assassinations of President Donald Trump, the attack on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and the killing of Minnesota state legislator Melissa Hortman.
“These have made me reconsider the experiences of my own family, including all of us sitting in a hotel room on Thanksgiving last year after yet another threat against our home,” Golden wrote. “There have been enough of those over the years to demand my attention.”
Golden called for open and competitive primaries in both parties while condemning both LePage and Dunlap as “a far cry from being standard bearers of the generations that will inherit the legacy of today’s Congress.” He added that he believed he would win if he decided to stay in the race, but dreaded the responsibility of returning to Congress.
“I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning,” he wrote. “Simply put, what I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son.”
The announcement took Democrats on Capitol Hill by surprise. Many of Golden’s colleagues believed he would run for re-election despite the primary challenge.
“I sincerely commend Jared for all the work he has done for Mainers, from lowering costs to protecting lobstermen’s jobs and fighting for veterans,” DCCC chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said in a statement. “His efforts to revitalize the Blue Dog Coalition have helped to grow our party, and his willingness to cross the aisle and find bipartisan solutions was deservedly rewarded time and time again by his constituents who continued to re-elect him despite bruising campaigns.”
With Golden out of the race, Republicans are expressing confidence the GOP will flip his seat in next year’s midterms.
“Serial flip-flopper Jared Golden’s exit from Congress says it all: He’s turned his back on Mainers for years and now his chickens are coming home to roost,” NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement. “He, nor any other Democrat, has a path to victory in ME-02 and Republicans will flip this seat red in 2026.”
“Congressman Jared Golden is out after two public polls from the UNH Survey Center and other polls showed him losing Maine’s second congressional district to former Governor Paul LePage in Maine,” Brent Littlefield, a LePage campaign strategist, wrote on social media. “Team LePage is committed to helping bring stronger representation and more prosperity to the people of Maine.”
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the government shutdown played a “big role” in Democrats’ victories Tuesday night and urged Republicans to kill the Senate filibuster to quickly restore federal funding.
“If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans,” Trump said during a breakfast with Senate Republicans at the White House. “Last night, it was not expected to be a victory, it was very Democrat areas. I don't think it was good for Republicans. I don't think it was good for anybody. We had an interesting evening and learned a lot."
He cited outside pollsters who have attributed the GOP losses to the fact that Trump wasn’t on the ballot, depressing turnout among the MAGA base. “I don't know about that but I was honored that they said that,” he added.
Trump used his candid autopsy of the election results to urge Republicans to kill the Senate filibuster to quickly reopen the government and then enact their agenda, including a national voter ID requirement.
He acknowledged that it’s an unlikely proposition as most Senate Republicans oppose the move but warned that he believes Democrats will do so the next time they’re in power.
“It’s possible you’re not going to do that, and I’m going to go by your wishes,” he said. “You’re very smart people. But I think it’s a tremendous mistake. It would be a tragic mistake, actually.”
On Wednesday, the shutdown stretched into its longest in U.S. history, with the previous 35-day shutdown set during Trump’s first term in 2019. Republican and Democratic lawmakers are locked in a stalemate.
Democrats on Tuesday won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and a high-profile mayoral race in New York City in which Trump endorsed two of the losing candidates. Complicating Trump’s newfound focus on a swift end to the shutdown, the romp only further ratcheted up pressure on Democratic senators who are signaling they could be ready to end the record-breaking government shutdown to hold the line until they secure an extension to Affordable Care Act subsidies.
“Republicans aren't the ones asking for anything, so for them it's a choice between changing the rules or helping Dems find an offramp,” Liam Donovan, a veteran GOP strategist, told POLITICO. “Last night's result theoretically allows Democrats to declare victory and end this on their own terms, but success makes choreography of any resolution that much trickier.”
Northern Virginia counties with large concentrations of federal workers shifted toward Democrats. Over a fifth of voters in CNN’s Virginia exit poll said someone in their household was a federal worker or contractor; of those, 63 percent supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
Progressive advocacy groups, Democratic strategists and some of the party’s Senate hopefuls immediately seized on the results as a spine-stiffener for the senators.
“It would be moronic for congressional Democrats to cave after voters said hell no to Trump and his creation of economic pain for Americans. Trump should honor the will of the people and fold,” Adam Green, who co-founded the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said Tuesday night.
A Senate Democratic aide, granted anonymity to discuss caucus deliberations, said “it’s hard for anyone to argue the message from voters is ‘please cave ASAP’ to Trump.” The pressure “will be enormous for moderates to hold the line.”
“This should send a chill down the spines of congressional Republicans and make them realize they need to come to the table if they have any hope of changing the political tides,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said.
For Democrats, Tuesday night felt like 2017 all over again.
All across the country, Democrats won big, from the marquee races to the down-ballot contests. Counties that had shifted right a year ago veered back to the left, and the suburbs that powered Democrats’ massive wins in the first Trump administration came roaring back. Exit polls even showed Democrats improved their margins with non-college educated voters.
The strength of the wins hints at Democrats’ appetite to take on Trump as he ends his first year in office and voters’ concerns about cost of living.
Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill cruised to double-digit victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Two Georgia Democrats flipped seats on the state’s Public Service Commission, the first non-federal statewide wins for a Democrat in nearly two decades. Democrats flipped a pair of Republican-held state Senate seats in Mississippi, cracking the GOP supermajority in a deep-red state. And a successful California ballot measure delivered five additional seats for the party’s House margins ahead of the 2026 midterms, offsetting Texas’ redistricting push.
But they also started to overperform in special elections, hinting that the tide was turning. And on Tuesday, their first big electoral test of the second Trump era, they didn’t just match the wins from eight years ago that had been a harbinger of a blue wave in the 2018 midterms — in several key races, they exceeded them.
“Virginians and voters spoke loud and clear that they're pissed off at the Trump administration,” Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist who worked on the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race. “Democrats came out in record numbers, and this is a foreshadow of what we're going to see next year.”
Democrats rode the traditional, party-out-of-power tailwinds, reenergizing their own base by pushing back on Trump’s second-term policies that have alarmed liberals. Spanberger’s and Sherrill’s messaging on the stagnant economy and affordability crisis helped their party bounce back in its first political test of the second Trump era — and by margins that even surprised some Democrats.
“After brutal losses, like 2024 and 2016, it is hard to trust polling … and your gut of what should happen historically. You can't trust it,” said Stephanie Schriock, a Democratic strategist who formerly led EMILY’s List, a progressive group that elects women. “But everything, the internal polling, the organizations on the ground, the No Kings and Indivisible movement, the energy, it was all there.”
During Trump’s last midterm cycle in 2018, Democrats picked up 40 House seats — and Spanberger and Sherrill were part of that wave.
In Virginia, whose odd-year state elections are often seen as a bellwether ahead of midterms and presidential elections, Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in the House of Delegates. In the attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones won by at least six points, overperforming expectations even as controversy mired his campaign’s final stretch, following revelations of violent text messages. Across the state, virtually every county shifted blue from former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance.
Spanberger’s double-digit victory was powered by a familiar set of voters: While she did better than Democrats from the past decade just about everywhere, her strongest gains were in suburban and exurban Virginia, including Loudoun County. Those are some of the same areas that powered Democrats’ resistance to Trump during his first term, but had drifted toward the GOP during President Joe Biden’s tenure.
In Prince William County, a wealthy enclave outside Washington, Democrat Ralph Northam won by 23 points in 2017; last year, Harris’ margin fell to under 18 points there. Spanberger won it by a whopping nearly 34 points.
And while slightly less dramatic, Spanberger’s strong showing in southeast Virginia could provide hope for Democrats aiming to flip districts held by GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman next year, even before potential changes from a redistricting push to help make that effort easier.
“The mood music is the same soundtrack,” Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist who focuses on House races, said of the comparison to 2018. “A deeply unpopular president, the same one, and a lot of Americans are very concerned about key issues like health care costs spiking.”
In the top races — the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the New York mayoral — all Democrats cleared 50 percent support. The trio of candidates represent both ends of the Democratic spectrum: democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani and traditional moderates Spanberger and Sherill. Republicans are already salivating over the change to turn Mamdani into a boogeyman and tie him to more moderate Democrats across the country.
But Democrats argued “the throughline on all of these races was: talk about affordability,” said David Hogg, a Democratic activist who co-founded Leaders We Deserve, a group focused on electing young people.
“Tomorrow, there are going to be a lot of mischaracterizations and bad faith arguments about how every single policy Zohran ran on here should and will be applied across the country,” Hogg said. “Even if the policies aren't transferrable [among states], what is transferrable are the tactics, listening to voters and not giving bullshit talking points..”
Democrats’ are still battling a damaged brand, according to NBC News’ exit pollthat showed that more voters in Virginia, New Jersey and California hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party than favorable ones. But the Tuesday elections could inject new energy and focus into a party that has been without for much of the year.
Republicans, already feeling the traditional midterm headwinds, warned Tuesday’s results could portend serious challenges next year. That’s particularly acute without Trump on the ballot, as one national Republican consultant said, because “you get all the damage with none of the benefits.”
Another GOP strategist, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the biggest challenge will be figuring out how to turn out low-propensity Trump voters next year. The most troubling sign for Republicans out of Tuesday’s results were Georgia Democrats’ flips of the two statewide seats in a sleepy Public Service Commission race, the strategist added.
The state’s Senate race next year is almost certain to be among the biggest of the cycle, with Republicans looking to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
"The one thing that would worry me, besides making sure you hold the House, is looking at how Democrats were able to fire up their base in some of these local elections in Georgia,” the strategist said.
NEW YORK — The common theme that emerged from Democrats’ trio of wins in New York, New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday was affordability.
For all their ideological differences, Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger found a shared language that aims at the heart of President Donald Trump’s populism: the high cost of everyday life.
Their wins suggest a recalibration of Democratic politics — from moral crusades to kitchen-table math.
Heading into the 2026 midterms, that formula will be hard to ignore. Democrats now have proof that campaigns grounded in affordability and competence can still unite the party’s fractious coalition — from democratic socialists in the nation’s biggest city to centrists in its quintessential suburbs.
“In a big-tent party like this, we're going to have lots of different ideas, lots of different ways to accomplish the same goal, and that's where we're unified,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in an interview ahead of Election Day. “What is Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger running on that’s similar? Affordability.”
The message wasn’t flashy — and it wasn’t new. But in a political landscape that’s been dominated by culture-war battles and Trump’s omnipresence, Democrats found traction by talking about rent, utilities and groceries instead of ideology.
Mamdani’s three main mayoral campaign pledges were simple: Freeze the rent for two million New Yorkers. Fast and free buses. Childcare for all.
The promises from the state assemblymember appealed to a broad swath of New Yorkers. Exorbitant daycare costs are an issue that even some Republicans, like Ivanka Trump, have talked about in recent years but that remains a burden for even well-to-do parents.
While Sherrill, a Democratic member of Congress, often talked about abortion rights in her campaign for governor of New Jersey, it was far from the most prominent issue. Her closing message largely relied on her plan to drive down utility costs — and blaming Trump for wreaking havoc on the economy.
A key plank of her “it’s the economy stupid” campaign turn was promising to declare a state of emergency and freeze utility rates when she takes office. Some progressives weren’t happy that she wasn’t talking more about immigration — an issue that another member of the New Jersey congressional delegation is now being prosecuted after taking on — but it didn’t matter.
Garden State Democrats knew that Trump drew in some of their core voters — Black and Hispanic voters — with promises about the economy during the 2024 campaign. But Sherrill bet that she could bring them back into the fold by pointing out how he hasn’t delivered.
Spanberger — a congressional Democrat like Sherrill — also resisted any temptation to center her Virginia gubernatorial campaign on the latest controversies from the White House and instead stuck to an economic message, specifically the cost of life for Virginians. Exit polls showed that was the top issue for voters by a wide margin, followed by health care.
The question now is whether Democrats can sustain that balance once governing — and inflation, housing costs and Trump’s shadow — put it to the test.
In their victory speeches, the trio hewed closely to their campaign messages.
In Brooklyn, Mamdani said that his election was a "mandate for a city you can afford.”
Though Sherrill closed her victory speech in East Brunswick by echoing the language of the “No Kings” protests, much of her speech was focused on New Jersey’s motto — “Liberty and Prosperity.”
“Liberty alone is not enough if the government makes it impossible for you to feed your family, to get a good education or to get a good job,” Sherrill said.
In Richmond, Spanberger said voters “chose leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most: lowering costs, keeping our communities safe and strengthening our economy for every Virginian.”
Former President Barack Obama, who campaigned this weekend for Sherrill and Spanberger, said during his New Jersey stop that people voted for Trump and Republicans “because they were, understandably, frustrated with inflation and high gas prices and the difficulty of affording a home, and they were worried about their children’s futures.”
“Now, nine months later, you’ve got to ask yourself, has any of that gotten better?” Obama asked.
Voters seem to think not.
Daniel Hanand Liz Crampton contributed to this report.
Jay Jones, the Democrats’ scandal-plagued attorney general nominee who sparked a Republican-led backlash over violent text messages, secured victory in what turned into a high-profile race in Virginia’s statewide electoral contests Tuesday.
Spurred largely by anti-Donald Trump sentiments among voters, Jones defeated Republican Jason Miyares, the incumbent in the race who the GOP put much of its political capital in protecting. Republicans hoped the public outrage over Jones’ 2022 texts — where he detailed the hypothetical killing of a GOP lawmaker — would be enough to all but disqualify him from winning the post.
"To everyone who didn’t give up on this campaign: I say thank you," Jones said Tuesday night. “I will protect our jobs, our health care and our economy from Donald Trump’s attacks.”
Jones had been leading Miyares in polling as the final month of campaigning approached. But the contest took a dramatic turn after the National Review reported that Jones sent to a colleague three years ago a series of texts that included “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head” — a reference to then-Virginia GOP House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The comments were quickly condemned by the party, but the scandal broke after Virginia’s 45-day early voting period began, leaving the party little recourse but to keep him on the ticket rather than ask him to step aside.
Republicans used Jones to attack Spanberger and openly questioned whether she could effectively lead the state if she was unwilling to speak out forcefully and call for a down-ballot candidate to end his bid. She condemned Jones’ text messages as “abhorrent” but refused to rescind her endorsement. Jones later expressed regret for sending the texts.
That left Jones, who makes history as Virginia’s first Black attorney general, to fend for himself. While some Democrats embraced him in the final days of the campaign including both Democratic Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine at a get-out-the-vote rally in Norfolk — the event’s headliners, Spanberger and former President Barack Obama, made no mention of him at all.
Miyares, who has ties to Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, took advantage of his incumbency and lapped Jones in fundraising. He gave Republicans hope, even before the scandal, that he could be the party’s best chance at blocking Democrats attempts at a clean sweep of the top statewide offices.
“As much as I love Abigail, the most important position this year is the attorney general's race,” said Del. Joshua Cole, a Democrat in Virginia’s General Assembly. “In Trump's America, we need a Democratic attorney general, and the Republicans know that. That’s why they [pulled] out all the stops” for Miyares.
But the text messages weren’t the only issue Republicans hit Jones with. He also faced renewed criticism over a years-old reckless driving charge where he was caught driving 116 mph in a 70 mph zone and struck a deal to forgo jail time by paying a fine and performing community service. Jones reportedly completed some of those community service hours while working at his own political action committee, giving Miyares and his Republican allies more material to paint Jones as being “above the law.”
Jones’ texting scandal had the potential to drag down other Democrats. During an interview on “Next Question with Katie Couric” last month Spanberger lamented having to repeatedly answer questions about Jones.
“The fact that I have to spend even a moment's time talking about somebody else's text messages from years ago, rather than what I want to do as governor, is something that I am deeply unhappy about,” Spanberger said on the podcast. Weeks prior during the lone gubernatorial debate, Spanberger said about Jones texts: “The voters now have the information, and it is up to voters to make an individual choice based on this information.”
Trump also sought to tie Spanberger to Jones.
“Radical Left Lunatic, Jay Jones, who is running against Jason Miyares, the GREAT Attorney General in Virginia, made SICK and DEMENTED jokes…” the president wrote in a Truth Social post, giving his full endorsement to Miyares. “Abigail Spanberger, who is running for Governor, is weak and ineffective, and refuses to acknowledge what this Lunatic has done,” he wrote in early October.
While Republicans zeroed in on the Jones texts in the closing stretch, calling the attorney general race a “referendum on decency," some Democrats pushed back on that line of attack before Tuesday night.
“Show me one of them that stood up and chastised Donald Trump about January 6, about saying that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody,” said Susan Swecker, a Democratic National Committee member and former chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia last week. “Don't be coming over to my party and lecturing me about something that our nominee for attorney general did.”
Jones’ texting scandal, along with Maine Senate Democratic candidate Graham Platner coming under attack for previous social media posts, provides fresh challenges to DNC Chair Ken Martin.
He acknowledged in an interview with POLITICO Sunday evening that improving vetting of candidates in the future is something the party will have to evaluate.
“It's not up to the DNC and to the party a chair to decide what's disqualifying or not,” Martin said. “We all are gonna have to do a much better job of vetting our candidates as we move forward.”
Donald Trump has been uncharacteristically distant from some of this year’s highest-profile races, going as far as bolstering a flailing Democrat in his hometown mayor’s contest while never uttering the name of Virginia’s Republican candidate for governor.
The endorser-in-chief has mostly avoided the marquee gubernatorial races across the Potomac in Virginia or in New Jersey, where he spends summer weekends golfing at his Bedminster club. He hasn’t set foot in either state for one of his signature campaign rallies. His muted approach is a departure from his usual impulse to throw himself into races across the country, and a sign he tacitly acknowledges Democrats’ relative strength in the first major election since he reassumed the White House.
Off-year elections prove an early assessment of each party’s standing heading into the following year’s midterms, when the tide generally turns from the party occupying the White House.
At times, Trump has seemed most interested in the mayoral race in his native New York City — a far less competitive race that democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears poised to win.
While the president has yet to mention Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by name, and only recently waded back into the New Jersey governor's race to reiterate his support for the GOP contender, in New York City, he all but endorsed Andrew Cuomo — a Democrat forced to run as an independent after losing the primary. Trump warned in a Monday night Truth Social post of Mamdani and disparaging Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
And in California, where voters will decide on a ballot measure allowing Democrats to redraw congressional maps, Trump has not catalyzed any major effort to counteract Gov. Gavin Newsom’s well-funded campaign — even as the White House aggressively pushes redistricting in red states across the country.
“The president has the ability to drive people out like we've never seen in American political history, both for him and against him,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist. “But right now he is not on the ballot, so I think the enthusiasm to go out for his supporters might be a little less, whereas the opposition is equal, if not even more engaged.”
Trump, who readily muses about wanting to pick winners and over the last few days has endorsed dozens of Republicans, understands the potential positive impact of his explicit backing and often wields that power. Perhaps more saliently, he seems to know where his support can do more harm than help. In these two blue–but-GOP-curious states, Trump has toed that line — and likely will continue to until the polls close.
“My take is that those are blue states. It is only interesting when they occasionally have a streak of red,” Bartlett said of Virginia and New Jersey. “So, I just think those should not be in play, maybe ever, certainly now with Trump in the White House.”
In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill by single digits, has the awkward task of embracing the president’s support to consolidate the right without alienating a fairly moderate statewide electorate.
“Jack Ciattarelli is a WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump wrote in a mid-May social media post ahead of the primary. Ciattarelli, who was once critical of Trump, rocketed to the nomination the following month.
In the general election, he’s taken a different tack.
Ciattarelli has in some ways fashioned himself as a MAGA-style Republican, participating in a rally on the Jersey Shore with prominent Trump surrogates. Only one notable attendee was missing: Trump.
"You need to max out the Trump coalition as much as you possibly can, but also don't ignore voters who don't give Trump the time of the day," said Jesse Hunt, a former communications director for the Republican Governors Association. "You may need to have voters with negative opinions of Trump to cross over for Jack."
Democrats have used nearly every opportunity to remind voters of Ciattarelli's alliance with Trump, pointing to a comment he made in a recent debate in which he awarded Trump an "A" rating.
Trump reentered the fray last month on Ciattarelli’s behalf, reiterating his endorsement in another social media post, and hosted an October telerally urging New Jerseyans to reject Sherrill. The White House announced a second telerally for Ciattarelli on the eve of the election. Even then, the Ciattarelli campaign did not publicly advise the president would be dialing into the Garden State.
“Now that you have Trump in the White House, New Jersey will continue to be ‘Blue Jersey,’ I would expect,” Bartlett said.
In Virginia, another high-profile race is soon to be decided and Trump has notably kept his distance.
Earle-Sears, the state’s Republican lieutenant governor, has struggled to accrue momentum in her race to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Polling averages consistently show her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the blue-leaning state. She’s shaken up her campaign staff to improve her lagging fundraising and electoral prospects, and local Republicans have voiced concerns about the strength of her candidacy.
Trump never endorsed Earle-Sears by name, merely telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Oct. 20: "Well, I think the Republican candidate is very good and I think she should win because the Democrat candidate's a disaster."
One person close to the White House, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the president’s positioning, said, “If she had made it more of a race, it would’ve gotten more attention from him.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment about the president’s 2025 election strategy.
But Republicans haven’t lost all hope in Virginia.
Trump has made note of their strongest statewide down-ballot candidate, Attorney General Jason Miayres, who appears to have a shot at keeping his seat following a leaked text thread showing rival Democrat Jay Jones musing about shooting political adversaries. Recent polls show the two locked in a tight race.
Knocking Jones in a Truth Social post, Trump called Miyares “a GREAT Attorney General” who has his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”
He also held a separate, last-minute telerally for the Republican slate Monday night — only advised by the White House.
For now, Trump seems to be more focused on elections beyond 2025 — and even the 2026 midterms. He’s mentioned Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his potential successors in the next presidential election. He went as far as suggesting that the two would make an “unstoppable” ticket.
As for himself: “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.”
Former President George W. Bush paid tribute to his late vice president, Dick Cheney, on Tuesday, calling him “a patriot who brought integrity, high intelligence, and seriousness of purpose to every position he held.”
“Dick was a calm and steady presence in the White House amid great national challenges,” Bush wrote. “I counted on him for his honest, forthright counsel, and he never failed to give his best. He held to his convictions and prioritized the freedom and security of the American people.”
And even though the pair’s relationship was strained toward the end of their time in the White House — due in large part to Bush’s refusal to pardon Cheney’s chief of staff, Scooter Libby — the former president hailed Cheney as “among the finest public servants of his generation.”
“For those two terms in office, and throughout his remarkable career, Dick Cheney’s service always reflected credit on the country he loved,” Bush wrote.
One key Republican who has remained conspicuously silent in the hours since Cheney’s death was announced is President Donald Trump. Cheney’s twilight in American politics was marked by his opposition to the president.
“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” he said in 2022 campaign advertisement for his daughter, Liz Cheney, another Trump foil. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He is a coward. A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters.”
But many Republicans, even some who backed Trump in the aftermath of his failed bid to remain in the White House after losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, offered their condolences.
“Vice President Cheney dedicated his life to serving our nation,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a key Trump ally, said in a post on X. “He was known for his love of his family and his country. Ann and I are praying for the Cheney family and all who knew him during this time.”
Their stand saw the Cheneys effectively run out of GOP politics, with Trump winning the general election last November and continuing to reshape the party in his image in the months since returning to the Oval Office.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
But other key Republicans paid their respects Tuesday.
“As our nation mourns the loss of former Vice President Dick Cheney, we honor his devotion to serving our nation,” Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), the fourth-ranking House Republican, said on X. “My prayers are with the Cheney family during this difficult time.”
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in a statement that Cheney, who grew up in Casper, Wyoming, would be remembered as “a towering figure who helped guide the course of history” in the state.
“From high school football star to White House Chief of Staff, Congressman, Secretary of Defense, and Vice President, Dick’s career has few peers in American life,” Barrasso wrote. “His unflinching leadership shaped many of the biggest moments in domestic and U.S. foreign policy for decades.”
Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is pushing to redraw the state’s congressional maps, announcing on Tuesday the creation of a commission that will propose new lines ahead of the 2026 midterms.
It sets up a clash between the two Democratic leaders in a blue-leaning state where any effort to redraw the map will net a single seat, given that Maryland Democrats already dominate the state’s congressional delegation with seven of its eight U.S House seats. It also comes as Democrats are ramping up their efforts to change maps to match President Donald Trump’s moves to redistrict red-leaning states to net additional seats for Republicans.
“My commitment has been clear from day one — we will explore every avenue possible to make sure Maryland has fair and representative maps,” Moore said in a statement Tuesday. “This commission will ensure the people are heard..”
The commission will be chaired by Maryland Democratic Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a close ally of Moore’s who he helped get elected to the Senate last year. Moore’s other appointees include Brian Frosh, the state’s former Democratic attorney general who served under former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, and Ray Morriss, the nonpartisan mayor of the city of Cumberland.
The other appointees of the commission include Maryland House Speaker Adrienne Jones, who has been public about her intent to launch a redistricting push, and Ferguson “or designee.”
In a statement, Ferguson suggested he is open to Marylanders hearing opposing concerns and that following through on a redistricting push could backfire on Democrats and “unintentionally give Donald Trump one or two additional Congressional seats.”
Maryland’s Supreme Court leans conservative with five of the seven justices being appointed by former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, underscoring Ferguson’s concern that future legal battles changing newly created maps may ultimately be detrimental to Democrats.
Moore, considered a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is itching for Maryland to enter the national mid-decade redistricting fight that touched off earlier this year when Trump urged the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature to redraw districts to pick up five seats that favor Republicans ahead of next year's midterms.
Moore himself has characterized what Trump is doing as “nothing more than political redlining,” a reference to the discriminatory housing practice that kept Black Americans out of predominantly white neighborhoods by denying them mortgages.
Ferguson, who is white, in his letter last week also made a racial argument against moving to redraw state lines. He said Maryland, which has a governor, House speaker and attorney general who are all Black, has long fought against racial gerrymandering that was aimed at “diluting” the Black vote. It would be “hypocritical to say that it is abhorrent to tactically shift voters based on race, but not to do so based on party affiliation,” he wrote.
In California on Tuesday, voters take up a ballot measure, Proposition 50, the mid-decade gerrymander that is being led by Gov. Gavin Newsom. If it passes as expected, it would offset the GOP pickups that the Texas redistricting effort created.
Results from The POLITICO Poll for the Nov. 3, 2025 story "America is bracing for political violence — and a significant portion think it’s sometimes OK"
President Donald Trump has threatened to withhold federal funding from New York City in a last-ditch effort to drive the city’s voters to former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and prevent Zohran Mamdani from winning Tuesday’s election.
Trump wrote in a social media post “it is highly unlikely” he will allow the city to receive federal funding beyond “the very minimum as required” if voters elect Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor, while advocating for Cuomo, who is running as an independent.
The statement marked a more forceful endorsement of Cuomo by Trump, who said in a “60 Minutes” interview on Sunday he would like to see Cuomo defeat Mamdani.
“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!,” Trump wrote.
Trump also urged people not to vote for Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate in the race, arguing that it amounted to supporting Mamdani.
Trump, who praised Cuomo’s “record of success,” offered his most unequivocal backing for the former governor in the race’s final hours. His complimentary posture toward Cuomo marks a shift from the “60 Minutes” interview, in which he framed the race as a choice “between a bad Democrat and a Communist,” adding that he would pick “the bad Democrat all the time.”
Cuomo sought to distance himself from Trump’s backhanded commendation while campaigning on Monday, repeatedly insisting to reporters that Trump did not endorse him. Mamdani’s campaign seized on the “60 Minutes” interview, painting his comments as a full-throated endorsement.
Cuomo has sought to position his campaign to win the support of Trump supporters in New York City. He privately told donors in August he’s counting on Trump to tell voters to support him over Sliwa as part of their shared goal of defeating Mamdani. The New York Times reported in August that Trump and Cuomo discussed the mayoral race in a phone call.
It’s not immediately clear the extent to which Trump could hamstring New York City’s funding if he does withhold federal dollars. But over $100 billion in federal funding flows through New York City via state and city allocations as well as disbursements to health care providers and other public entities.
Conservative podcaster Ben Shapiro blasted Tucker Carlson on Monday, calling him “the most virulent super-spreader of vile ideas in America," adding fuel to an incident that sparked a staff shakeup at the Heritage Institute.
In an episode of “The Ben Shapiro Show” released Monday, Shapiro criticized Carlson’s podcast episode with Holocaust-denier Nick Fuentes, saying Carlson failed to push back on Fuentes’ bigotry.
“The issue here isn't that Tucker Carlson had Nick Fuentes on his show last week. He has every right to do that, of course,” Shapiro said. “The issue here is that Tucker Carlson decided to normalize and fluff Nick Fuentes and that the Heritage Foundation then decided to robustly defend that performance.”
Carlson declined to comment when contacted Monday.
Shapiro’s critique is the latest crack in a conservative movement splintering over Carlson’s inflammatory interview with Fuentes. The interview, which aired last week, was laced with antisemitic references and sparked division within the Republican Party over whether the discussion should be allowed or condemned. On the podcast, Fuentes praised Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin and claimed the “big challenge” to unifying the country was “organized Jewry.” Carlson, a former Fox News host who retains a large following, said Republican Israel supporters suffer from a “brain virus.”
Shapiro pushed back on Roberts’ characterization. “It is not cancellation to draw moral lines between viewpoints,” Shapiro said. “In fact, we used to call that one of the key aspects of conservatism.”
The incident sparked internal changes at the Heritage Foundation. Ryan Neuhaus, Roberts' former chief of staff, resigned from the conservative think tank Monday, a Heritage spokesperson confirmed. Neuhaus had reposted statements defending Roberts' statement on X.
"[Neuhaus] is a good man, we appreciate his service, and we have no doubt he will serve the movement in another capacity," the spokesperson said. The Hill first reported on his resignation.
Carlson’s interview with Fuentes came on the heels of other high-profile incidents of antisemitism on the political right. Last month, a nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel withdrew his nomination after bragging of his “Nazi streak” in a text message; days earlier, POLITICO reported on a leaked group chat of Young Republicans who praised Hitler and joked about the Holocaust. The same week, a Nazi symbol was discovered hanging in a GOP congressional office.
Shapiro, a prominent conservative podcaster who hosted fundraisers for Donald Trump and Senate GOP candidates during the 2024 cycle, warned that a “splinter faction” of white supremacists is being "facilitated and normalized” into the Republican Party’s mainstream, aided by Carlson.
“The main agent in that normalization is Tucker Carlson, who is an intellectual coward, a dishonest interlocutor, and a terrible friend,” Shapiro said.
At the annual Republican Jewish Coalition annual leadership summit last weekend, top GOP Jews attempted to distance Carlson from the GOP mainstream. Matt Brooks, CEO of the RJC, told reporters that antisemitism is “a very small, limited problem in our party,” and attendees waved printed placards that read, “TUCKER IS NOT MAGA.”
Shapiro, who is Jewish, warned that the GOP is “being eaten by its radicals.”
“The left followed its radicals to electoral hell,” Shapiro said. “Apparently, many on the right wish to do the same.”
A red-state Democrat is inching toward a Senate run as Kansas' Republican-controlled legislature debates drawing her out of a seat.
Rep. Sharice Davids met with Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) last week to talk through the logistics of a Senate campaign and garner advice from a lawmaker who’s transitioned from the lower chamber to the upper one, according to one person with knowledge of the conversation. Schiff is a vice-chair for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 cycle.
Republicans in the Kansas state Senate eye redrawing Davids’ district to make it more friendly to Republicans, as part of a nationwide push to deliver a more favorable 2026 House map for the GOP. Across the country, Republicans are looking at drawing up to 19 new House seats — an aggressive push Democrats are starting to challenge ahead of the midterms.
Kansas legislators are scheduled to meet in a special session later this week to take up redistricting. But a sufficient number of members of the Kansas State House of Representatives have yet to offer their support to the effort, some of them criticizing the precedent mid-decade redistricting would set.
Davids, the lone Democrat in Kansas’ congressional delegation, represents much of the Kansas City metro area. She entered the House in 2019.
“If [Kansas Republicans] continue forward on this path, and they’re successful in this, at this point, all I can say is that every option is on the table, including a statewide run,” she said in a press conference last month.
Sen. Roger Marshall (K-Kansas) is the incumbent up for reelection in 2026.
In a press release last week, Davids’ office called the redistricting effort a “power grab” and said she “remains focused on representing [Kansans] in whatever capacity best allows her to do so.”
Spokespeople for Davids and Schiff did not respond to requests for comment.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
President Donald Trump endorsed more than 50 Republicans on Sunday night — but didn’t specifically name Virginia gubernatorial hopeful Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears ahead of Tuesday’s critical elections.
In dozens of social media posts, the president threw his support behind both first time hopefuls and those seeking reelection, including Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Earle-Sears, facing off against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, was not mentioned by name among the 53 endorsements Trump issued Sunday.
The president, however, made clear that he hopes voters cast their ballots for the Republican candidates in Virginia and in New Jersey, where Jack Ciattarelli is in a heated battle against Mikie Sherrill for the governor’s mansion. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in October.
“Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World?” Trump said in one post. “VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense!”
Trump has hedged around an official endorsement for Earle-Sears, telling reporters last monththat the “Republican candidate” in Virginia should win “because the Democrat candidate is a disaster." Last week, the president joined the term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin for a virtual rally for the entire Virginia Republican ticket.
Most Americans expect political violence to keep growing in the United States and believe that it is likely a political candidate will be assassinated in the next few years.
Widespread pessimism about political violence is a rare, grim point of consensus in a country riven by political and cultural divisions.
A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.
It’s a view held by majorities of Americans all across lines like gender, age, party affiliation and level of education, though Democrats and older voters expressed particular concern.
Perhaps most troubling, a significant minority of the population — 24 percent — believes that there are some instances where violence is justified.
There was little partisan divide in that belief, but a strong generational one: Younger Americans were significantly more likely than older ones to say violence can be justified. More than one in three Americans under the age of 45 agreed with that belief.
While political violence can take many forms, more than half of Americans say that it is very or somewhat likely that a political candidate gets assassinated in the next five years, according to the exclusive survey. That view cuts across party lines, with agreement from 51 percent of last year’s Trump voters and 53 percent of Americans who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Robert Pape, a University of Chicago political science professor who has studied political violence for the last three decades, is no longer warning that the country is on the brink of a violent age, as he did as recently as five months ago.
“We're not on the brink of it, we're firmly in the grip of it,” Pape told POLITICO, saying the country is now in an era of “violent populism.”
The POLITICO Poll, conducted after Kirk’s assassination, suggests Americans are rattled by the environment of heightened political violence — and that most still reject it: about two thirds, 64 percent, say political violence is never justified.
Still, a small but significant portion of the population, 24 percent, say that there are some instances where violence is justified.
“What's happening is public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream, it's not a fringe thing, and the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people,” Pape said.
There have been a series of high-profile attacks and threats against members of both parties, across the country and at all levels of government, in recent years.
In addition to Kirk’s killing and the attempts on Trump’s life, there was the gruesome attack targeting former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that left her husband, Paul Pelosi, with a fractured skull in 2022; the assassination plot against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh that same year; the plan to kidnap Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020; and the firebombing at Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence earlier this year.
In June, former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in their home by a man impersonating a police officer in an attack that Gov. Tim Walz (D) called “politically motivated.” The man accused of killing Hortman and her husband was indicted on federal murder charges. His case is still pending.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are also increasingly concerned over the rising culture of violence. Last year, U.S. Capitol Police investigated nearly 10,000 “concerning statements” and threats against members, their families and staff. Just two weeks ago, a man was arrested and charged with making a “credible death threat” against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Local officials have also faced elevated attacks and hostilities — including insults, harassment and threats — according to a survey from CivicPulse and Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative earlier this year.
That can have damaging effects for democracy, said Shannon Hiller, executive director of the non-partisan Princeton project: “When people aren't willing to run because of the climate of hostility, that impacts who's ultimately representing us.”
While most Americans believe violence will increase, the survey also found some gaps in opinion that revealed some groups hold darker views than others.
Democrats, for example, are more likely than Republicans to say that violence will increase.
That difference may reflect at least in part a broader sense of pessimism about the nation’s future among Democrats. Surveys — including The POLITICO Poll — have found that Democrats have more negative views than Republicans since Trump’s return to office, reversing the trend from when former President Joe Biden was in office.
Americans who hold negative views about major institutions, including the U.S. presidency, are particularly likely to say that violence is likely to increase. Among Americans who hold a very negative view of the presidency, for example, 76 percent believe violence will increase, while only 15 percent believe it will decrease.
The data suggest that the extreme partisanship that has come to dominate the current era of politics has in many ways shaped Americans’ feelings on violence.
Forty-one percent of Americans say they feel hesitant to share their political views in public, and they are significantly more likely than others to expect politically motivated violence to increase — 68 percent, compared with 47 percent of those who feel comfortable sharing their political views.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in September asked an open-ended question about the reasons for political violence over the last several years, and Americans’ most common answers were grounded in partisanship. More than a quarter of Democrats, 28 percent, mentioned Trump’s rhetoric, the MAGA movement or conservatives as a reason, while 16 percent of Republicans cited the rhetoric of Democrats and liberals.
In the aftermath of Kirk’s killing, lawmakers on both sides urged Americans to engage with each other, even when they disagree.
“We can always point the finger at the other side,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) said at a press conference after authorities apprehended Kirk’s alleged killer. “At some point we have to find an off-ramp, or else it’s going to get much worse.”
But even the act of engaging with others who hold different views is difficult in a bitterly divided nation: 41 percent of Americans say they don’t have a close friend who votes for a different party than them.
LAS VEGAS — Republican Jews acknowledged antisemitism is cropping up in their movement during a conference this weekend, but were quick to blame left-leaning Democrats for fanning the flames.
At the Republican Jewish Coalition leadership summit, a string of recent high-profile antisemitic incidents — including a skirmish this week featuring Tucker Carlson and the Heritage Foundation — cast a long shadow. Even as many speakers denounced antisemitism among conservatives and said the GOP must root it out, nearly all their condemnations were quickly qualified by criticism of Democrats.
“Republicans have a cold, and Democrats have a fever,” Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary and RJC board member, told reporters. “And Republicans are fighting the cold.”
The group's summit, held annually at The Venetian Expo, the late casino magnate and GOP donor Sheldon Adelson’s convention center, occurs this year as the Republican Party is facing a barrage of pro-Nazi and pro-Hitler incidents within its ranks. Last month, a nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel withdrew his nomination after bragging of his “Nazi streak” in a text message; days earlier, POLITICO reported on a leaked group chat of Young Republicans who praised Hitler and joked about the Holocaust. The same week, a Nazi symbol was discovered hanging in a GOP Congressional office.
Then, this week, Carlson hosted Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes on his podcast; the guest claimed the “big challenge” to unifying the country was “organized Jewry.” Carlson, a former Fox News host who retains a large following, said Republican Israel supporters suffer from a “brain virus.”
RJC speakers took aim at Carlson starting on the conference’s opening night. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said Thursday he has “seen more antisemitism on the right” in the past six months “than I have in my entire life.”
"If you sit there with someone who says Adolf Hitler was very, very cool, and that their mission is to combat and defeat global Jewry, and you say nothing, then you are (a) coward and you are complicit in that evil,” Cruz said.
But many speakers downplayed the concern, saying antisemitism is relegated to the fringes of the GOP.
Matt Brooks, CEO of the hosting organization, told reporters that antisemitism is “a very small, limited problem in our party.” On Saturday, RJC staffers gave attendees large placards reading “TUCKER IS NOT MAGA” to wave, suggesting that Carlson’s antisemitic views stand apart from the GOP mainstream. Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), the longest serving Republican Jew in Congress, emphasized in his speech that antisemitism is an issue on the “fringes” of the Republican Party, and suggested that legacy conservative institutions like the Heritage Foundation are removed from the party’s mainstream.
“Heritage has to decide whether, in fact, they're going to be a serious conservative movement and think tank and resource for all of us, or whether they're going to pray to the fringes,” Kustoff said in an interview.
Even Rep. Randy Fine (R-Florida), who denounced Carlson as “the most dangerous antisemite in America” in his speech, said in an interview that antisemitism is “still on the fringes” in his party.
“But if we don't deal with it, it could metastasize, like we've seen with the Democrats,” Fine said. “And I'm not willing to be a part of that.”
The string of antisemitic incidents among Republicans in recent weeks has caused some top Jewish GOP donors to double down. "Antisemitism isn’t a 'right-wing' problem — it’s a human one, festering across the spectrum,” said Y. David Scharf, a GOP megadonor and grandson of Holocaust survivors. He noted the incidents “don’t shake my support for the RNC or GOP candidates — they fuel it.”
“The party’s swift suspension of that Young Republicans chapter shows accountability,” he added. “I will back those who fight hate decisively."
Even so, the antisemitic incidents have yet to garner explicit condemnations from President Donald Trump or Vice President J.D. Vance, a fact RJC officials and Republican lawmakers downplayed in interviews. “This is a decision every elected official gets to make,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) told reporters, when asked about Vance’s dismissal of Young Republicans’ rhetoric as “edgy, offensive jokes.”
“I believe the Republican Party stands for Israel. I believe we stand against antisemitism,” Scott said.
Unless Trump, Vance and other Republican leaders condemn the incidents, it will only continue to fester, said Halie Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America. “If the president himself and Republicans were serious about combating antisemitism, they would condemn it when it emerges in their own ranks. And they do not,” Soifer said in an interview last week. “There's a permission structure within the Republican Party, and it comes from the top.”
Joe Gruters, the chair of the Republican National Committee, mentioned antisemitism nine times throughout his speech Saturday, all in reference to universities or the political left. “Antisemitism has found a home in the Democrat Party,” he said.
Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) agreed, adding, “Let's face it: Antisemitism is running wild on the progressive left,”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the highest ranking Jewish senator, encouraged Republicans to look inward, writing on social media Thursday, “Every person who has aligned itself with the Heritage Foundation, including elected officials, must disavow this dangerous mainstreaming of these hateful ideologies."
CORRECTION: Matt Brooks' name was incorrect in an earlier version of this article.
In a bitterly divided country, pessimism and cynicism reign supreme: Two-thirds of Americans say it is at least probably true that the government often deliberately lies to the people. That distrust cuts across partisan lines: Strong majorities of Donald Trump voters (64 percent) and Kamala Harris voters (70 percent) agree.
Nearly half of Americans, 49 percent, say that the best times of the country are behind them, according to The POLITICO Poll by Public First. That’s greater than the 41 percent who said the best times lie ahead, underscoring a pervasive sense of unease about both individuals’ own futures and the national direction.
The exclusive new poll, conducted nearly one year after Trump’s reelection, reveals a deep strain of pessimism across the electorate — but especially for Democrats.
People who voted for Harris last year are twice as likely as Trump voters to say the United States’ best times are in the past.
America, as a country, is like “someone who is feeling lost, confused, or beat up … or uncertain of what to do, and looking around and saying this isn’t right, this isn’t the way,” said Maury Giles, the CEO of Braver Angels, a nonprofit that works to bridge partisan divides.
Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans
Asked about “the best times” in the United States, only a small number of people cited the present moment.
Instead, nearly two-thirds of Harris voters said the best times in the U.S. were in the past, double the share of Trump voters who believe that. A 55 percent majority of Trump voters said the best times still lie ahead.
That’s likely at least partly a reflection of a partisan pattern of expressing optimism when one's party is in the White House, and pessimism when it is not.
“Americans will divide on how they view the country's doing depending on who is in office and which party they identify with,” said Jennifer McCoy, a political scientist at Georgia State University who focuses on political partisanship.
Americans’ views may flip in the future, when control of the White House and government next change — but for now, Democrats’ negative views are pervasive.
More than half of Harris voters, 51 percent, say that America is not a functioning democracy, while 52 percent of Trump voters take the opposite view and say the U.S. is a model.
The view from Democrats is so gloomy that a solid majority of Harris voters — 70 percent — say the quality of life in the U.S. is at least somewhat worse than it was five years ago, a period that was marked by the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread racial justice protests and a contentious presidential election. Meanwhile, a 42 percent plurality of Trump voters say the quality of life in the U.S. is at least somewhat better than it was five years ago.
That dynamic even extends to views of the world at large: More than three-quarters — 76 percent — of Harris voters say the state of the world is at least somewhat worse than it was five years ago, compared to 44 percent of Trump voters who agree.
Many people don’t believe the American Dream exists
On a personal level, faith in the American Dream has also fallen. The idea — once considered a national ethos about the ability to better one’s life through hard work and discipline — was not specifically defined in the poll, which asked more generally about the statement that “the American Dream no longer exists.”
Overall, almost half — 46 percent — of Americans said that the American Dream no longer exists. That was by far the most common answer, far greater than the 26 percent who disagreed.
A slight majority of Harris voters, 51 percent, agreed that the American Dream no longer exists, while last year’s Trump voters were even split, with 38 percent agreeing and 38 percent disagreeing.
The declining belief in the American Dream, which has been mirrored in other national surveys, reflects a pessimism about today’s economy, said McCoy.
There’s also a stark age divide, with younger Americans more likely to say the American Dream no longer exists. More than half of Americans 18-24 — 55 percent — agree, compared to 36 percent of Americans over 65.
“In economic terms, social mobility has been getting worse and worse, and that social mobility is basically the indicator of the American Dream,” she said. “And young people especially ... are feeling that, feeling that they can't buy a house, they can't afford to have children, they still have student debt, all of these things,” she continued.
Americans know they’re polarized, and say it’s getting worse
The sense of pessimism about the future comes amid a widening perception of political polarization.
More than half of U.S. adults, 59 percent, said that political polarization is “much” or “somewhat” worse than it was five years ago, with Americans over 65 much more likely to hold that view, according to the survey.
Americans’ divisions are also reflected in their personal lives, with 61 percent of Americans saying that most of their friends share their political views. That cuts across party — 65 percent of Trump voters, 67 percent of Harris voters — and age and gender divides, according to the survey.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned in an interview last week that American politics had been degraded by the internet and a culture of anonymous vitriol.
"Anonymity makes anger worse and gets people really ginned up," Paul told POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for “The Conversation.” He faulted people whose "expertise and ... excellence is in anger and emitting anger."
Forty-one percent of Americans say they do not have a close friend at all who votes for a different party than them, with younger Americans and those who supported Harris more likely to say that is the case.
The increasingly segmented society has exacerbated Americans’ pessimism, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a frequent critic of the Trump White House, told POLITICO.
“We have a crisis of connection and meaning in this country, and Trump is a symptom, not the cause, of that crisis,” he said.
“We are built to want to feel a sense of common purpose, but we live in a world today in which we spend less time with our family and our friends and our peers than ever before,” he added.
Americans say ‘radical change’ is needed
Americans’ general malaise has fueled an appetite for overhaul in the country, with a slight majority (52 percent) believing that “radical change” is necessary to make life better in America.
Younger Americans are particularly likely to hold that view, and more Harris voters agree with the need for radical change than Trump voters.
Roughly one-third of Americans go even further: Thirty-five percent say the U.S. needs a revolution — a view that, broadly, cuts across party lines, with 39 percent of Harris voters and 32 percent of Trump voters holding that view.
But even as pessimism about the future persists for many Americans, pride endures. Almost two-thirds of Americans — 64 percent — say they are proud to be an American, according to the poll.
“Americans need hope and they need confidence,” Giles said. “The vast majority of this country understands that what is happening right now is not healthy, it is not sustainable.”
Working-class voters see Democrats as “woke, weak and out-of-touch” and six in 10 have a negative view of the party, concluded a frank internal assessment of the hole the party finds itself in.
The nine-month, 21-state research project is the latest in a wave of post-mortems and data dives aimed at solving the Democratic Party’s electoral challenges after their sweeping losses in 2024. It was funded by Democracy Matters, a nonprofit aligned with flagship Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, and backed by months of polling, dozens of focus groups and message testing.
American Bridge’s project focused exclusively on working-class voters, shedding light on a once-core constituency for Democrats that’s drifted away from the party over the last decade. And the initial feedback is grim: Working-class voters don’t see Democrats as strong or patriotic, while Republicans represent safety and strength for them. These voters “can't name what Democrats stand for, other than being against [Donald] Trump,” according to the report.
The Democratic brand “is suffering,” as working-class voters see the party as “too focused on social issues and not nearly focused enough on the economic issues that impact every one, every day,” the report said.
“We lost people we used to get [in 2024], so why did we lose them? Why don’t we go ask them,” said Mitch Landrieu, co-chair of Democracy Matters and senior adviser to then-President Joe Biden. “They said what they thought about us and it was painful to hear … They feel forgotten, left out, and that their issues are not prioritized by the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.”
He added, “they want somebody focused first, second and third, on their economic stress.”
Landrieu and other aides will brief congressional members on the findings in the coming weeks. They’re also airing one of the ads they tested as a part of the project in Virginia, boosting Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor. The ad, backed by a six-figure buy, features a 70-year-old woman who said she still works and lives paycheck to paycheck.
The project was conducted by Impact Research, GBAO and HIT Strategies over a 9 month period, surveying 3,000 working-class voters from across the political spectrum. It also included 39 focus groups with 400 working-class voters and other research.
The report argues Democrats still have a path to regain the support of blue-collar voters they have been losing to Republicans, from resetting their perceived priorities to leaning into issues that voters trust them on, including health care and housing. They point to Trump’s failure to bring down costs since resuming office this year as proof that “this group is very much up for grabs,” said Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster who worked on the project.
“They are not convinced that what they are getting from Republicans is alleviating the stress they’re experiencing and Democrats can win them over,” said Molly Murphy, another Democratic pollster who also worked on the project.
But warning signs remain for Democrats heading into next year’s midterms.
Working-class voters “don’t fully recognize the extent of the harm Trump’s budget bill is causing,” the report said. Instead, they are “incredulous as to why Republicans would seemingly make a bad system worse.” The report acknowledged that “Republicans start off on stronger ground on these issues, but Democrats can reclaim them when they vividly illustrate how their plans differ from Republicans’, particularly on health care.”
Trump’s job approval rating among the surveyed working-class voters, who backed him by 7 points in 2024, is even. Still, these same voters only gave Republicans a 2-point edge heading into 2026, per the data from Democracy Matters.
Democrats’ must focus on affordability, the report emphasized, though its messaging suggestions clash with the strategy of progressives, differing on who to blame for economic strain. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) drew enormous crowds when they barnstormed the country this spring on their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, attacking billionaires and “the 1 percent.”
But in the report, their surveys found “a candidate focused on taking on big corporations and the wealthy” received 43 percent, while a “candidate focused on fixing the economy so those who work hard can get ahead” earned 52 percent.
“Not one person in all of our focus groups mentioned the word ‘oligarchy,’” Landrieu said.
These respondents aspire to wealth, Landrieu added, but “absolutely felt like wealthy people who were using the tax system to not pay their fair share was a very serious problem.”
Murphy said their data prompted them to “come out of this wanting to use a little bit of caution” when talking about the economy. “Not to be prescriptive in saying, ‘don’t say take on billionaires’ or use populist messaging,” she added, “but [working-class voters] need to know Democrats respect people who build wealth, and we’re not looking to punish them.” .
The report identified two areas of particular weakness for Democrats: transgender rights and immigration. Both topics dominated Republican messaging in 2024, particularly Trump’s ad that included the tagline, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”
The research argued the “strongest Dem messages on trans issues focus on keeping the government out of medical professionals’ decisions, followed by prioritizing the economy” and it urged candidates: “Don’t say Republicans need to stop attacking LGBT people. Instead, say everyone — Republicans and Democrats — need to stop obsessing over this issue.”
But it also found one-third of independents would be “much more likely” to support Democrats if they said “transgender women should not play in women’s sports,” the second highest testing message in swaying these voters.
Democrats have split on how to talk about transgender issues. Some, like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, broke with his party to criticize allowing transgender athletes to participate in female college and youth sports, calling it “an issue of fairness” on his podcast last March. In contrast, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker blasted “do-nothing” Democrats in a speech last spring for “blam[ing] our losses on our defense of Black people, of trans kids, of immigrants — instead of their own lack of guts and gumption.”
The report included a detailed media consumption study, finding that working-class voters are “consuming less news and using YouTube and playing video games more than the overall electorate.” They rely on YouTube, TikTok and Facebook for news, and they’re more likely to use TikTok specifically for news than the overall electorate.
They also are constantly tuned into audio throughout the day, be it radio, streaming or podcasts.
“We heard time and again in the groups that these are not low-info voters and they’re not traditional news readers, but they’re getting inundated with information,” said Ryan Berni, a Democratic consultant who advised on the project. “It’s almost a slur to call them low-info voters. They’re getting a lot, but not from Democrat-aligned sources.”
NORFOLK, Virginia and NEWARK, New Jersey — Barack Obama reprised his role as the Democrats’ closer-in-chief on Saturday, filling a void for his still leaderless party in the waning days of closely watched gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey.
The former president’s stops — his first in Norfolk, home to the nation’s largest naval installation and two historically Black colleges, and later in Newark, the Garden State’s most populous city where nearly half of residents are Black — are nods that Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, see these voters as key to securing victory in the Nov. 4 election.
But Obama’s reemergence is also a reminder of the rudderlessness of the Democratic Party, which is still reeling from stinging losses in 2024 that left them completely locked out of power in the federal government. Democrats are counting on decisive victories from Spanberger and Sherrill, both of whom are favored to win on Tuesday, to help springboard them into the critical midterm elections next year.
President Donald Trump made gains in both states last year, in part due to improved performance among Black and Hispanic voters.
Democrats have worked to get these voters back on their side, with the bet that their affordability-focused messaging will demonstrate that Trump failed to deliver on his economic promises that drew in so many of them. But Republicans, too, have been courting these voters in an attempt to replicate Trump’s gains last year.
Obama underscored Spanberger and Sherrill’s focus on the economy as he sought to fire up voters.
“Abigail’s opponent does seem to care a lot about what Trump and his cronies are doing. She praised the Republican tax law that would raise the cost of health care and housing and energy in Virginia,” Obama said without mentioning Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by name.
“It’s like everyday is Halloween, except it’s all tricks and not treats,” the former president said, drawing laughs from the crowd, before adding: “I did warn y’all.”
Just a couple of hours later in New Jersey, Obama told the crowd that there is “absolutely no evidence that Republican policies have made life better for the people of New Jersey.”
Obama criticized Sherrill’s opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, whom he also did not mention by name, for choosing to “suck up to the Republicans in Washington” after running unsuccessful gubernatorial bids twice before. He also pointed to Trump’s endorsement of Ciattarelli, in which Trump called him “100 percent MAGA.”
“Not a great endorsement,” Obama said.
Obama also spoke to New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani on Saturday, according to a person familiar with the call who was granted anonymity to confirm the private conversation, underscoring the former president’s involvement in trying to direct an adrift Democratic Party. The call was first reported by The New York Times.
Without a singular figure driving the Democratic Party, Democrats are searching for a message that will resonate with voters. Tuesday’s races will be the latest temperature check on the effectiveness of their rhetoric on the economy — and their blaming of Trump for voters’ unhappiness with it.
“President Obama is somebody who is widely respected across the state,” Sherrill told reporters Thursday. “He's a pragmatic leader who I think cares deeply about rights and freedoms, but also about driving down costs. And I think at this moment, having the architect of the Affordable Care Act — as now everybody here in New Jersey, because of President Trump, is set to see their premiums go up by 175 percent — is really telling.”
Spanberger and Sherrill have sought to tie their Republican opponents to Trump. The Democrats have positioned themselves as a bulwark to the president, whom they argue has made the economy worse since he returned to power — in part pointing to the ongoing government shutdown.
Thousands of federal workers are missing paychecks, and others are out of a job due to the Department of Government Efficiency-related firings earlier this year and more recently through Trump-backed job cuts since the shutdown began a month ago — a dynamic that is particularly acute in Virginia, which has a large number of federal workers.
“You deserve a governor who will work with Democrats and Republicans to grow our economy and not stand by while Virginia’s workforce is under attack,” Spanberger said Saturday.
Saturday brought in a new round of hardship: Millions of Americans were placed at risk of losing food assistance as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program was forecast to run out of money. Sherrill said her campaign will be “collecting donations for the Community Food Bank of New Jersey as the Trump Administration is letting SNAP funding expire, forcing more families to rely on food banks for food assistance.”
In Virginia, outgoing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared an emergency, blaming the “Democrat Shutdown” for the funding fight while stepping in to help SNAP beneficiaries. New Jersey also declared a state of emergency and is “accelerating” funds to food banks, term-limited Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said. Murphy on Friday said “the Trump Administration’s decision to suspend SNAP funding as the government shutdown drags on is both unethical and illegal.”
“I’m angry that our president is cutting everything from the Gateway tunnel funds to SNAP benefits,” Sherrill told the crowd on Saturday. “But I don’t feel afraid. As I stand here, I feel nothing but courage. New Jerseyans give me courage, and I’m sure the nation feels that way too.”
In New Jersey, which is expected to be a tighter race than Virginia, some Democrats have expressed concerns about Democrats regaining ground with Black voters. Sherrill — who called Black voters a “key part of the Democratic firewall” — is likely to win among this demographic, but as Ciattarelli also attempts to appeal to them, the margin could make a difference in the outcome of the race.
Earle-Sears, who is Black, took Obama to task for his comments chastising Black men for not supporting then-presidential nominee Kamala Harris more aggressively, yet urging Black voters a year later to support Democratic nominees who are both white.
It was unclear prior to Obama’s remarks in Virginia whether he would weigh in on the controversy surrounding Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.
Jones has been at the center of scandal surrounding violence-themed text messages he sent in 2022, where he fantasized about shooting and killing a Republican lawmaker, that came to light in the closing weeks of the race. It threw the party’s hopes for flipping Virginia’s top statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general into question and offered Republicans a rallying cry to hammer Spanberger, who condemned the messages but refused to pull her endorsement of Jones or ask him to drop out of the race.
But Jones appeared early in the rally and made no mention of the scandal that has engulfed his campaign. While other speakers mentioned Jones, including Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), neither Obama nor Spanberger did.
While Obama’s return to the campaign trail gave many Democrats a jolt of excitement — in New Jersey, attendees shouted “we miss you” when Obama said that the country and politics “are in a pretty dark place right now” — his presence has been pilloried by Republicans who suggest both nominees are incapable of leading Democrats into the future and are the reason they’re reliant on “the face of the Democrat Party from a decade ago.”
“Sherrill and Spanberger both lack a cohesive forward-looking agenda to improve the lives of voters in their states, so it comes as no surprise that they're reliant on Democrat nostalgia despite its failed policies that let Americans down,” Courtney Alexander, communications director for the Republican Governors Association, said in a statement to POLITICO.
Obama has been a consistent presence for gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia in recent cycles, regularly serving as the headliner even after he left office.
He, along with a swarm of Democrats — many of whom have an eye on the 2028 presidential election — have come to rally for Spanberger and Sherrill in the closing stretch of the campaign. But the party’s more recent standard-bearers, former President Joe Biden and Harris, have largely stayed off the campaign trail.
“There's no bigger voice, a more respected voice in our party, than Barack Obama,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said. “And so having him come in to rally the troops in the final few days, to thank the volunteers and the people who've been on the ground working so hard, and to really create, help remind folks of what's at stake in this election, it never hurts.”
Gregory Svirnovskiy, Adam Wren and Daniel Han contributed to this report.
President Donald Trump on Saturday went after Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) for her Somali heritage, urging her to leave the country in a social media post, reprising an attack he used several times throughout his time in office.
“She should go back!” he wrote on Truth Social, alongside a video of Omar speaking to a crowd. It was not immediately clear when the event was, but the video of Omar speaking has been circulating among right-leaning social media accounts for at least a couple weeks.
Trump also called out Omar multiple times during his first term, in one instance accusing her of “telling us how to run our country” during the final months of the 2020 campaign.
Her office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
But the four-term lawmaker told a radio host Friday that she isn’t concerned by rhetoric around her immigration status.
“I have no worry, I don’t know how they’d take away my citizenship and like deport me,” she said on The Dean Obeidallah Show. “But I don’t even know like why that’s such a scary threat. Like I’m not the 8-year-old who escaped war anymore. I’m grown, my kids are grown. Like I could go live wherever I want if I wanted to. It’s a weird thing to wake up every single day to bring that into every single conversation, ‘we’re gonna deport Ilhan.’”
NORFOLK, Virginia — Jay Jones, the embattled Democratic nominee for attorney general in Virginia, made a surprise appearance at a major Democratic campaign rally Saturday aimed at revving up the party faithful ahead of the high-stakes statewide elections Tuesday.
Jones — whose years-old violent text messages triggered a nationwide GOP backlash and a steady drumbeat of calls for Democrats to push him off the ticket — opened the event, where headliner former President Barack Obama energized voters in support of Abigail Spanberger, the party’s gubernatorial nominee.
Speaking before Spanberger and Obama took the stage, Jones made no mention of the scandal that prompted Spanberger to distance herself from him. He instead focused his brief remarks on Jason Miyares, seeking to cast the incumbent GOP attorney general as a puppet for President Donald Trump.
“Trump has endorsed Jason. … He said ‘Jason will never let us down,’ and what that means is that he'll never let Donald Trump down,” Jones said, with the crowd at the Chartway Arena erupting in boos in response to the mention of the current president.
He cast his opponent as being a “willing enabler” of the president, who has wreaked havoc on Virginia residents, and claimed Trump “illegally fires workers [and] levies tariffs that destroy our regional economies, including the Port of Virginia.”
The overwhelmingly Democratic crowd received Jones warmly, with cheers and applause. He reminded them he grew up in this region, which he said will help Virginia send a message to Trump on Election Day.
Republicans, including Trump, have seized on the text messages from Jones, who in 2022 sent to a colleague messages fantasizing about shooting then-House Speaker of Virginia Todd Gilbert, a Republican. Jones has apologized but refused calls, including from his opponent Miyares, to end his bid for attorney general.
Spanberger criticized those text messages, but like most other prominent Democrats in the state and nationally, did not call on him to drop out.
Speakers who appeared after Jones, including Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott, state Sen. Lamont Bagby and Sen. Tim Kaine all urged voters to vote for Jones on Tuesday.
“I met Jay Jones when he was 11 years old. I have known him for 25 years,” Kaine said, before laying into Trump, blaming him for the ongoing federal government shutdown and allowing funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to lapse. He pointed out that several states filed lawsuits against the administration — but not Virginia.
“Virginia didn't participate," he said, "because Jay's opponent wouldn't stand up and say ‘hungry people deserve the money in the contingency fund that was set for them.’ Jay would never do that.”
PASSAIC COUNTY, New Jersey — Both candidates in the New Jersey governor’s race have something to prove here in Passaic. It’s ground zero for the inroads President Donald Trump made with Latino voters — Trump won this plurality-Latino county last year, the first GOP presidential candidate to do so in decades — and it offers the first big litmus test of whether the Latino shift toward the GOP in 2024 will stick without Trump on the ballot.
That is, if Latino voters show up.
With just days left until Election Day, there are concerns on the ground that Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s and Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s campaigns have not done enough to reach the hyperlocal and swingy communities of Latinos in this northern pocket of New Jersey. Strategists and local leaders told POLITICO they’ve witnessed a lack of enthusiasm in Passaic County, where campaign messaging and activation around Latino voters is falling flat.
“It’s not as proactive as they needed to be,” said a Democratic strategist with roots in Passaic, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Around Passaic, there’s a resounding recognition among Latino leaders and some organizers that this bellwether bloc of voters may not vote this year. Latino voters, like other minority groups, historically have lower levels of engagement in off-year elections.
“I’m asking you, please, do not stay home,” Passaic Mayor Hector Lora told a crowd of Sherrill voters at a campaign rally in Paterson last Sunday. “New Jersey is watching Passaic County, and the nation is watching New Jersey,” Christine Tiseo, a local councilmember, said at the same rally.
The signs of lagging enthusiasm are evident on the ground. A trip up Main Avenue, which cuts through the city of Passaic heading into Clifton and Paterson, is devoid of campaign postings or early voting signs. The main library in Clifton, which serves as an early voting site, has been under construction for months and is adorned with large black-and-white signs signaling its temporary closure. Prospective early voters have to make their way around the back of the building to find the entrance available to them.
“How the hell do you expect these people to vote!” Jeannette Mestre, a Clifton voter, told POLITICO on the sidelines of Sherrill’s event.
The most noticeable sign of life from either campaign during the past week came by way of canvassers from Make the Road Action New Jersey, who’ve been in the city of Passaic for months campaigning for Sherrill and speaking to thousands of residents to remind them to vote. During their third round of door-knocking Thursday in Passaic — which Trump carried with 52 percent last year — two canvassers noted the lack of visibility for either campaign in the neighborhood.
“It’s like they’re literally trying to get people not to vote,” said Lori Gonzalez, a volunteer with Make the Road. She estimated that of 60 voters her group connects with, about 40 will stay home. Knocking on doors of midsize residential buildings in Passaic on Thursday in the pouring rain, a consistent trend emerged: The decided voters — usually younger, all who have already prepared to vote — said they’re going for Sherrill. But many were unsure, and most of the others said they weren’t planning to hit the polls.
That trend is also playing out across the area: Passaic County’s early voting numbers are lagging behind, with Democratic turnout at 13.4 percent — six points below the state average, with a similar lagging trend for mail-in ballots. It’s the manifestation of anxieties ruminating within Latino strategists and local politicians that the community just hasn’t been rallied or motivated enough to vote.
“We fought a good fight for the primary, but now I see an apathy,” a local Democratic leader said about Sherrill’s campaign. “I would have wished to have seen more done in the Latino communities — you know where people are feeling like, ‘Wow, they care.’ And I believe that they care, but I think the campaign — I don't think it's making sure. [Sherrill’s] just out there, just going from space to space, and it's a big state.”
Democrats’ theory of the case is that many voters in Latino strongholds like Passaic County had election fatigue in 2024; the right messaging didn’t reach them, so they chose Trump as a change agent who would help their pocketbooks or they simply stayed home. Winning Passaic back would not only chip away at Republicans’ gains, but also provide Democrats a battle-tested message to take into midterms.
Republicans are betting that their success with Latino voters last year wasn’t just a Trump effect, but rather a budding realignment of Latinos and working-class voters nationwide with whom they share values. Latinos are “waking up to the fact that the current policies have failed us, but also, the Democratic Party has been taking them for granted,” Ciattarelli told POLITICO on his tour bus after his rally in Clifton last Saturday.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has spotlighted him at practically every Latino parade in the state, connecting with Latino churches and small-business owners, said Kennith Gonzalez, who leads the campaign’s Hispanic outreach. Sherrill’s campaign has focused on connecting with local Latino leaders and groups, who can channel her message into their communities, campaign vice chair Patricia Campos-Medina said.
The problem is, with either approach, there’s people who fall through the cracks, according to Rafael Collazo, the executive director of the UnidosUS Action PAC, one of multiple groups supporting Sherrill and working to reach Latino voters across the state. “It’s hard to put a number on it, but a significant amount of Latino voters aren't really touched by those networks on either side,” he told POLITICO.
Despite the millions of dollars in investments in Spanish ads and media outreach, the strategists and local leaders said Sherrill’s campaign has not spent enough time effectively connecting with hyperlocal Latino communities. A Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly said Sherrill’s running a suburban campaign with Latinos: “It’s like they took the strategy that you apply to the suburbs and try to take it statewide.” That comes amid general concerns in the final weeks about the enthusiasm surrounding Sherrill’s campaign, as POLITICO has previously reported.
Immigration is also bubbling as a flashpoint. Of the Passaic residents who spoke with Playbook about the election, all named immigration — ICE raids and deportations, more specifically — as their chief concern. The county is around 42 percent Latino, but cities like Passaic are up to 70 percent Latino, immigrant-dominated areas with some of the biggest concentrations of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Peruvians anywhere in the U.S. Ciattarelli has toed a delicate line by aligning himself with MAGA while softening on some immigration issues, but recent polling suggests that Trump’s sway with Latino voters generally is dropping.
“It’s the first meaningful temperature check since the last election,” Carlos Odio, a Latino analyst and pollster with Equis Research, told POLITICO. “And it’s fitting that it be here, because this is where you saw the biggest shifts from ’20 to ’24.”
Canvassing continues as the final days approach. Ciattarelli’s campaign is knocking doors this weekend in Paterson and nearby Woodbridge, while Make the Road said it’ll keep going for Sherrill in Passaic through Tuesday. Sherrill was scheduled for a get-out-the-vote rally in Clifton on Saturday.
But the campaigns will find out if they walked the walk with Latino voters on Tuesday. Sherrill, for her part, is talking the talk, at least. In a high school gymnasium in Paterson last Sunday, surrounded by Latinos volunteering for her campaign, Sherrill made a heartfelt plea to the community.
“Necesito su voto, familia,” she told the crowd in Spanish: I need your vote.
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