Gov. Janet Mills’ entrance into the Maine Senate primary on Tuesday reignited the familiar progressive-versus-establishment battle lines. A three-way clash in Michigan has exposed the ongoing divisions within the party over Israel-Gaza. And a wave of generational challenges to elderly House members have flared across the country.
Democratic primaries — already crowded, often messy and frequently retreading well-worn ideological fault lines within the party — are finally taking shape as top candidates jump in and filing deadlines approach.
Who wins these primary races will give early clues for how the party might emerge from the political wilderness in the wake of 2024 losses, as it looks to retake levers of power in Washington next fall. But they also present challenges for Democratic Party officials, often looking to control the primary process by pushing their preferred candidates and avoiding expensive intra-party clashes.
Mills, for example, was heavily recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to enter the race, but she’ll now face well-funded primary opponent Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with the backing of Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
“The Democratic Party is undergoing a robust discussion with itself about how to win again. That means a lot of viewpoints, a lot of energy — and a lot of candidates,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist who served as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s political director in 2016. “Candidates will have to prove whether their views, profiles and approach fit their districts or states. This process will be messy and unpredictable but is often unavoidable.”
POLITICO compiled a list of the top Democratic primaries that will offer clues for how the party moves forward.
Maine Senate primary
Hours after Mills joined the race, her campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee formed a joint fundraising committee, making it clear who Washington Democrats prefer and providing a resource boon.
But it’s not clear whether the two-time governor’s establishment connections will help her in the primary — a familiar challenge in Democratic primaries.
Platner, who is in his early 40s and backed by a constellation of younger, progressive organizations, has already raised $4 million for his bid — a large sum for a first-time candidate. Jordan Wood, a 36-year-old former congressional aide whose campaign said he’s raised $3 million, is also running. Dan Kleban, a co-founder of the Maine Beer Company, dropped out on Tuesday and endorsed Mills.
Platner previewed some of the attack lines against Mills in The New York Times, saying that “going with someone who is very much of the establishment, going with someone who is very much of the party that has built the world we live in now, I think that runs a massive risk.”
There are also generational themes underpinning the race, as Mills, who is 77, is the oldest candidate in the race and would be the oldest freshman senator should she win. She has said that she only planned to serve one term, should she be elected.
Michigan Senate primary
The United States’ role in Israel is poised to take center stage again in the Michigan Senate race, where a trio of candidates, all with differing stances on the issue, are competing to replace retiring Michigan Sen. Gary Peters in a crucial battleground.
Earlier this month, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow called the conflict in Gaza a genocide, joining Abdul El-Sayed, a former Michigan health official, who has taken an even firmer stance against Israel’s actions. McMorrow’s comments represent not only the Democratic Party’s evolving views on Israel, but also how candidates hope to use the issue to differentiate themselves within the primary.
In contrast, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) is backed by AIPAC, the pro-Israel group. AIPAC’s super PAC already dropped millions to boost Stevens in 2022, when she beat then-Rep. Andy Levin in a member-on-member primary. Democrats in the state expect AIPAC to spend heavily on behalf of Stevens again, which could also test Democratic primary voters’ willingness to accept big money interventions.
The state, home to a significant Arab-American population, saw the rise of the “uncommitted” movement to pressure then-President Joe Biden to take a stronger stance against Israel last year amid the war.
Tennessee’s 9th District primary
A handful of young, insurgent candidates have popped up across the country, challenging older, tenured House members, whom they have deemed generationally out-of-step in standing up to President Donald Trump.
Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson, the “Tennessee Three” member who announced his primary bid against 10-term Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) last week, best represents this dynamic. Pearson, who is 30, instantly picked up support from David Hogg’s group, Leaders We Deserve, which pledged to spend $1 million against the 76-year-old Cohen.
The complaints are often stylistic rather than ideological, which could shed new light on primary voters’ preferences ahead of the 2028 presidential primary.
California gubernatorial primary
Voters in the biggest blue state, in picking its next governor, will confront what matters more: A candidate focused on standing up to Trump or dealing with the state’s non-Trump-related problems.
But, so far, there is no clear frontrunner answering that question. Former Rep. Katie Porter, who lost a 2022 bid for Senate, held a slight polling advantage before a recent contentious interview went viral. But several other Democrats are vying for a spot: former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former state comptroller Betty Yee and state superintendent Tony Thurmond.
And other high-profile candidates may still enter the race. Los Angeles businessman and former mayoral candidate Rick Caruso is often name-checked, as is Sen. Alex Padilla. It’s not clear if either will ultimately make the jump.
Another dynamic for Democrats could come in the general election, should the Republican candidates, Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton, get locked out. If it’s a Democrat-versus-Democrat in November 2026, voters can deliver an even more clear answer on what it means to be a California Democrat, particularly on issues around crime and housing.
New York’s 17th District primary
This upstate New York district is one of only three House districts Kamala Harris won in 2024 that’s also held by a Republican, making it one of the most tantalizing pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2026. National Democrats are closely watching who might emerge from the unsurprisingly crowded primary, where eight candidates have jumped in to take on Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) — with party leaders betting that more moderate candidates would be enticing to swing district voters.
Cait Conley, a former National Security Council official, and Beth Davidson, a Rockland County legislator, were both mentioned by national Democrats as potential swing seat stars, should they emerge from the primary.
“In 2018 Democratic primaries set the stage to win the House, [and] moderates with records of service won the day,” said Dan Sena, who served as the DCCC’s executive director in 2018. “One of the big questions for 2026 will be if the Democrats can again replicate that strategy and success.”
NEW YORK — Leaders of Young Republican groups throughout the country worried what would happen if their Telegram chat ever got leaked, but they kept typing anyway.
They referred to Black people as monkeys and “the watermelon people” and mused about putting their political opponents in gas chambers. They talked about raping their enemies and driving them to suicide and lauded Republicans who they believed support slavery.
William Hendrix, the Kansas Young Republicans’ vice chair, used the words “n--ga” and “n--guh,” variations of a racial slur, more than a dozen times in the chat. Bobby Walker, the vice chair of the New York State Young Republicans at the time, referred to rape as “epic.” Peter Giunta, who at the time was chair of the same organization, wrote in a message sent in June that “everyone that votes no is going to the gas chamber.”
Giunta was referring to an upcoming vote on whether he should become chair of the Young Republican National Federation, the GOP’s 15,000-member political organization for Republicans between 18 and 40 years old.
“Im going to create some of the greatest physiological torture methods known to man. We only want true believers,” he continued.
Two members of the chat responded.
“Can we fix the showers? Gas chambers don’t fit the Hitler aesthetic,” Joe Maligno, who previously identified himself as the general counsel for the New York State Young Republicans, wrote back.
“I’m ready to watch people burn now,” Annie Kaykaty, New York’s national committee member, said.
The exchange is part of a trove of Telegram chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than seven months of messages among Young Republican leaders in New York, Kansas, Arizona and Vermont. The chat offers an unfiltered look at how a new generation of GOP activists talk when they think no one is listening.
Since POLITICO began making inquiries, one member of the group chat is no longer employed at their job and another’s job offer was rescinded. Prominent New York Republicans, including Rep. Elise Stefanik and state Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt, have denounced the chat. And festering resentments among Young Republicans have now turned into public recriminations, including allegations of character assassination and extortion.
A liberating atmosphere
The 2,900 pages of chats, shared among a dozen millennial and Gen Z Republicans between early January and mid-August, chronicle their campaign to seize control of the national Young Republican organization on a hardline pro-Donald Trump platform. Many of the chat members already work inside government or party politics, and one serves as a state senator.
Together, the messages reveal a culture where racist, antisemitic and violent rhetoric circulate freely — and where the Trump-era loosening of political norms has made such talk feel less taboo among those positioning themselves as the party’s next leaders.
“The more the political atmosphere is open and liberating — like it has been with the emergence of Trump and a more right wing GOP even before him — it opens up young people and older people to telling racist jokes, making racist commentaries in private and public,” said Joe Feagin, a Texas A&M sociology professor who has studied racism for the last 60 years. He’s also concerned the words would be applied to public policy. “It’s chilling, of course, because they will act on these views.”
The dynamic of easy racism and casual cruelty played out in often dark, vivid fashion inside the chats, where campaign talk and party gossip blurred into streams of slurs and violent fantasies.
The group chat members spoke freely about the pressure to cow to Trump to avoid being called a RINO, the love of Nazis within their party’s right wing and the president’s alleged work to suppress documents related to wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex crimes.
Dwyer and Kaykaty declined to comment. Maligno and Hendrix did not return requests for comment.
But some involved in the chat did respond publicly.
Giunta claimed the release of the chat is part of “a highly-coordinated year-long character assassination led by Gavin Wax and the New York City Young Republican Club” — an allusion to a once obscured internecine war that has now spilled into the open.
“These logs were sourced by way of extortion and provided to POLITICO by the very same people conspiring against me,” he said. “What’s most disheartening is that, despite my unwavering support of President Trump since 2016, rouge [sic] members of his administration — including Gavin Wax — have participated in this conspiracy to ruin me publicly simply because I challenged them privately.”
Wax, a staffer in Trump’s State Department, formerly led the New York Young Republican Club — a separate, city-based group that is at odds with the state organization, the New York State Young Republicans. He declined to comment.
Despite his allusions to infighting, Giunta still apologized.
“I am so sorry to those offended by the insensitive and inexcusable language found within the more than 28,000 messages of a private group chat that I created during my campaign to lead the Young Republicans,” he said. “While I take complete responsibility, I have had no way of verifying their accuracy and am deeply concerned that the message logs in question may have been deceptively doctored.”
At least one person in the Telegram chat works in the Trump administration: Michael Bartels, who, according to his LinkedIn account, serves as a senior adviser in the office of general counsel within the U.S. Small Business Administration. Bartels did not have much to say in the chat, but he didn’t offer any pushback against the offensive rhetoric in it either. He declined to comment.
A notarized affidavit signed by Bartels and obtained by POLITICO also sheds light on the intraparty rivalry that led the “RESTOREYR WAR ROOM” Telegram chat to be made public. Bartels references Wax as well. He wrote that he did not give POLITICO the chat and that Wax “demanded” in a phone call that he provide the full chat log.
“When I attempted to resist that demand, after providing some of the requested information, Wax threatened my professional standing, and raised the possibility of potential legal action related to an alleged breach of a non-disclosure agreement,” Bartels claimed in the affidavit. “My position within the New York Young Republican Club was directly threatened.”
Walker, who now leads the New York State Young Republicans, touched on a similar theme, saying that he believes portions of the chat “may have been altered, taken out of context, or otherwise manipulated” and that the “private exchanges were obtained and released in a way clearly intended to inflict harm.”
He also apologized.
“There is no excuse for the language and tone in messages attributed to me. The language is wrong and hurtful, and I sincerely apologize,” Walker said. “This has been a painful lesson about judgment and trust, and I am committed to moving forward with greater care, respect, and accountability in everything I say and do.”
251 times
Mixed into formal conversations about whipping votes, social media strategy and logistics, the members of the chat slung around an array of slurs — which POLITICO is republishing to show how they spoke. Epithets like “f----t,” “retarded” and “n--ga” appeared more than 251 times combined.
In one instance, Walker — who at the time was a staffer for Ortt — talked about how a mutual friend of some in the chat “dated this very obese Indian woman for a period of time.”
Giunta responded that the woman “was not Indian.”
“She just didn’t bathe often,” Samuel Douglass, a state senator from northern Vermont and the head of the state’s Young Republicans, replied to Giunta.
In a separate conversation, Giunta shared that his flight to Charleston, South Carolina, landed safely. Then, he offered some advice for his fellow Young Republicans.
“If your pilot is a she and she looks ten shades darker than someone from Sicily, just end it there. Scream the no no word,” Giunta wrote.
Douglass did not respond to requests for comment.
In a statement, Ortt called for members of the chat to resign.
“I was shocked and disgusted to learn about the racist, anti-Semitic, and misogynistic comments attributed to members of the New York State Young Republicans,” Ortt said. “This behavior is indefensible and has no place in our party or anywhere in public life.”
Walker had been in line to manage Republican Peter Oberacker’s campaign for Congress in upstate New York, but a spokesperson for the campaign said Walker won’t be brought on in light of the comments in the chat.
Seeking Trump’s endorsement
The private rhetoric isn’t happening in a vacuum. It comes amid a widespread coarsening of the broader political discourse and as incendiary and racially offensive tropes from the right become increasingly common in public debate. Last month, Trump posted an artificial intelligence-generated video that showed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in a sombrero beside Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose fabricated remarks were about trading free health care for immigrant votes — a false, long-running GOP trope. The sombrero meme has been widely used to mock Democrats as the government shutdown wears on.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump spread false reports of Haitian migrants eating pets and, at one of his rallies, welcomed comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and joked about Black people “carving watermelons” on Halloween.
Liz Huston, a White House spokesperson, rejected the idea that Trump’s rhetoric had anything to do with the chat members’ language.
“Only an activist, left-wing reporter would desperately try to tie President Trump into a story about a random groupchat he has no affiliation with, while failing to mention the dangerous smears coming from Democrat politicians who have fantasized about murdering their opponent and called Republicans Nazis and Fascists,” she said. “No one has been subjected to more vicious rhetoric and violence than President Trump and his supporters.”
In the “RESTOREYR WAR ROOM” chat, Giunta tells his fellow Republicans that he spoke with the White House about an endorsement from Trump for his bid to become chairman of the national federation. Trump and the Republican National Committee ultimately decided to stay neutral in the race.
A White House official said that it has no affiliation with Restore YR and that hundreds of groups ask the White House for its endorsement.
Giunta was the most prominent voice in the chat spreading racist messages — often encouraged or “liked” by other members.
When Luke Mosiman, the chair of the Arizona Young Republicans, asked if the New Yorkers in the chat were watching an NBA playoff game, Giunta responded, “I’d go to the zoo if I wanted to watch monkey play ball.” Giunta elsewhere refers to Black people as “the watermelon people.”
Hendrix made a similar remark in July: “Bro is at a chicken restaurant ordering his food. Would he like some watermelon and kool aid with that?”
Hendrix was a communications assistant for Kansas’ Republican Attorney General Kris Kobach until Thursday. He also said in the chat that, despite political differences, he’s drawn to Missouri’s Young Republican organization because “Missouri doesn’t like f--s.”
POLITICO reached out to Danedri Herbert, a spokesperson for the attorney general who also serves as the Kansas GOP chair, and shared with her excerpts of the chat involving Hendrix. In response, Herbert said that “we are aware of the issues raised in your article” and that Hendrix is “no longer employed” in Kobach’s office.
In another exchange, Dwyer, the Kansas’ chair, informs Giunta that one of Michigan’s Young Republicans promised him the group “will vote for the most right wing person” to lead the national organization.
“Great. I love Hitler,” Giunta responded.
Dwyer reacted with a smiley face.
Few minority groups spared
Giunta, who serves as chief of staff to New York state Assemblymember Mike Reilly, ultimately fell six points short of winning the chairship to lead the Young Republican National Federation earlier this year — despite earning endorsements from Stefanik and longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone.
Reilly did not respond to requests for comment.
Earlier this year, Stefanik accepted an award from the New York State Young Republicans. She lauded Giunta for his “tremendous leadership” in August and had her campaign and the political PAC she leads donate to that state organization. Alex deGrasse, a senior adviser for Stefanik, said the congresswoman “was absolutely appalled to learn about the alleged comments made by leaders of the New York State Young Republicans and other state YRs in a large national group chat.”
“According to the description provided by Politico, the comments were heinous, antisemitic, racist and unacceptable,” he continued, noting Stefanik has never employed anyone in the chat. “If the description by Politico is accurate, Congresswoman Stefanik calls for any NY Young Republicans responsible for these horrific comments in this chat to step down immediately.”
Stone also condemned the comments in a statement.
“I of course, have never seen this alleged chat room thread,” he said. “If it is authentic, I would, of course, denounce any such comments in the strongest possible terms, This would surprise me as it is inconsistent with Peter that I know, although I only know him in his capacity as the head of the New York Young Republicans, where I thought he did a good job.”
Few minority groups are spared from the Young Republican group’s chat. Their rhetoric — normalized at most points as dark humor — mirrors some popular conservative political commentators, podcasters and comedians amid a national erosion of what’s considered acceptable discourse.
Giunta’s line on a darker-skinned pilot, for example, echoes one used by slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk last year when he said, “If I see a Black pilot, I’m going to be like, boy, I hope he’s qualified.” Kirk was discussing how diversity hiring “invites unwholesome thinking.”
Walker also uses the moniker “eyepatch McCain” (originally coined by conservative commentator Tucker Carlson) in an apparent reference to GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw. Crenshaw lost his eye while serving as a Navy SEAL in Afghanistan. Walker also makes the remark, “I prefer my war heroes not captured,” a repeat of a similar 2015 line from Trump.
Art Jipson, a professor at the University of Dayton who specializes in white racial extremism, surmised the Young Republicans in the chat were influenced by Trump’s language, which he said is often hyperbolic and emotionally charged.
“Trump’s persistent use of hostile, often inflammatory language that normalizes aggressive discourse in conservative circles can be incredibly influential on young operatives who are still trying to figure out, ‘What is that political discourse?’” Jipson said.
White supremacist symbols
Jipson reviewed multiple excerpts of the Young Republicans’ chat provided by POLITICO. One was a late July message where Mosiman, the chair of the Arizona Young Republicans, mused about how the group could win support for their preferred candidate by linking an opponent to white supremacist groups. But Mosiman then realized the plan could backfire — Kansas’ Young Republicans could end up becoming attracted to that opponent.
“Can we get them to start releasing Nazi edits with her… Like pro Nazi and faciam [sic] propaganda,” he asked the group.
“Omg I love this plan,” Rachel Hope, the Arizona Young Republicans events chair, responded.
“The only problem is we will lose the Kansas delegation,” Mosiman said. Hope and the two Kansas Young Republicans in the chat reacted with a laughing face to the message. Hope did not respond to requests for comment. Mosiman declined to comment.
Jipson said the Young Republicans’ conversations reminded him of online discussions between members of neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups.
“You say it once or twice, it's a joke, but you say it 251 times, it's no longer a joke,” Jipson said. “The more we repeat certain ideas, the more real they become to us.”
Weeks later, someone in the chat staying in a hotel asks its members to “GUESS WHAT ROOM WE’RE IN.”
“1488,” Dwyer responds. White supremacists use the number 1488 because 14 is the number of words in the white supremacist slogan “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.” H is the eighth letter in the alphabet, and 88 is often used as a shorthand for “Heil Hitler.”
In another conversation in February, Giunta talks approvingly about the Orange County Teenage Republican organization in New York — which appears to be part of the network of national Teen Age Republicans — and how he was pleased with its young members’ ideological bent.
“They support slavery and all that shit. Mega based,” he said. The term “based” in internet culture is used to express approval with an idea, often one that’s bold or controversial.
In a statement, Orange County GOP Chair Courtney Canfield Greene said the party was disappointed to learn its teen group was mentioned in the chat.
"Our teen volunteers have no affiliation with the NYSYR's or the YRNF,” she said. “This behavior has no home within the Republican Party in Orange County."
Ed Cox, the chair of the New York State GOP, also condemned the remarks made in the chat.
“I was shocked and disgusted to learn about the reports of comments made by a small group of Young Republicans,” he said. “Just as we call out vile racist and anti-Semetic rhetoric on the far left, we must not tolerate it within our ranks.”
Vicious words for enemies
Members of the Telegram chat speak about their personal lives, too. Extensive discussions about their everyday lives include one exchange about how devoutly Catholic some chat members are and how often they attend church.
Many of the slurs, epithets and violent language used in the chat often appear to be intended as jokes.
Mosiman was derided by members of the chat as “beaner” and “sp-c.”
“Stay in the closet f----t,” Walker of New York also jested in July, though he is the group’s main target for the same epithet.
The group used slurs against Asians, too.
“My people built the train tracks with the Chinese,” Walker says at one point, referring to his Italian ancestors.
“Let his people go!” Maligno responds. “Keep the ch--ks, though.”
In another instance, Mosiman tells the group that, “The Spanish came to America and had sex with every single woman.”
“Sex is gay,” Dwyer writes.
“Sex? It was rape,” Mosiman replies.
“Epic,” Walker says.
There’s more explicit malice in some phrases, too, especially when they turn their ire on opponents outside the chat, such as the leader of the rival Grow YR slate, Hayden Padgett, who defeated Giunta and was reelected chairman of the Young Republican National Federation this summer.
“So you mean Hayden F----t wrote the resolution himself?” Giunta asked the group about the National Young Republicans chair in late May.
“RAPE HAYDEN,” Mosiman declared the following month.
“Adolf Padgette is in the F----tbunker as we speak,” Walker said in July.
Padgett responded to the chat’s language in a statement.
“The Young Republican National Federation condemns all forms of racism, antisemitism, and hate,” Padgett said. “I want to be clear that such behavior is entirely inconsistent with our values and has no place within our organization or the broader conservative movement.”
Giunta also had expletive-laden criticism for the Young Republicans in states that were supporting or leaning toward Padgett’s faction.
“Minnesota - f----ts,” he messaged, continuing: “Arkansas - inbred cow fuckers Nebraska - revolt in our favor; blocked their bind and have a majority of their delegates Maryland - fat stinky Jew … Rhode Island - traitorous c---s who I will eradicate from the face of this planet.”
Giunta also said he planned to make one of the competing Young Republicans “unalive himself on the convention floor.”
In another instance, Douglass, the Vermont state senator, describes to the group members how one of Padgett’s Jewish colleagues may have made a procedural error related to the number of Maryland delegates permitted at the national convention.
“I was about to say you’re giving nationals to [sic] much credit and expecting the Jew to be honest,” Brianna Douglass, Sam’s wife and Vermont Young Republican’s national committee member, replied to her husband’s message. Brianna Douglass did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
‘If we ever had a leak of this chat...’
While reporting this article, POLITICO was examining a separate allegation: that Giunta and the Young Republicans mismanaged the New York organization’s finances and hadn’t paid at least one venue for a swanky holiday party it hosted last year. POLITICO’s report detailed how the organization was missing required financial disclosure forms and how their subsequent efforts to file the forms revealed the organization was in more than $28,000 of debt. As of Tuesday, updated records show the organization is in more than $38,000 of debt.
Donations to New York State Young Republicans' political account must be reported to the state Board of Elections. Expenditures must be reported too.
At the time, Giunta told POLITICO the allegations were “nothing more than a sad and pathetic attempt at a political hit job.” But in their “RESTOREYR WAR ROOM” chat, he and Walker speak flippantly about mishandling the club’s finances.
“NYSYR Account be like: $500 - Balding cream $1,000 - Ozempik,” Walker said in one message. “NYSYR will be declaring bankruptcy after this I just know it,” he said in another.
“I drained $10k tonight to pay for my next vacation to Italy,” Giunta appeared to joke about the organization’s bank account.
“I spent it on massage,” he says of another check that was deposited in the account.
“Great. Can’t wait to get sued by our venue,” Walker replies.
Members of the chat occasionally appeared to be aware of its toxicity and even made remarks that considered the possibility someone outside their tight-knit group could view it.
Walker seemed to consider that possibility the most.
In one instance, he joked about bombing the Young Republican National Federation’s convention in Nashville and then remarked, “Just kidding for our assigned FBI tracker.”
In another, he considered the totality of the thousands of messages he and his peers had written, and what would happen if the public saw them come to light.
“If we ever had a leak of this chat we would be cooked fr fr,” he wrote.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries met in a Zoom meeting with members of the Illinois congressional delegation Monday to talk about redistricting in the state — an effort that is already triggering concern among lawmakers who fear the changes could dilute Black political power.
No maps were shown to the group but some versions of boundaries have been shared during individual conversations, according to one person in the meeting who was granted anonymity to speak freely.
“It’s what you’d expect. They’re trying to get another district,” the person said, adding that Republican Rep. Mary Miller’s downstate district appears to be the target. Miller is one of three Republicans in the 17-member delegation.
Redistricting talk is raising concern that adjusting congressional boundaries could dilute Black communities in districts, thereby undermining Black political influence.
“At what cost do you try to get one more seat? How many more do you put in jeopardy?” said another person on the call who was also granted anonymity to speak about a private meeting.
The implications go beyond Illinois. As national Democrats look ahead to the 2026 and 2028 election cycles, there’s pressure to find winnable seats in Republican-dominated districts. Any redistricting effort in Illinois would come before the midterms in an effort to counter Republicans’ push for more favorable maps to keep the House.
Jeffries sees Illinois and Maryland as states that could pick up Democrats, according to one of the people in Monday’s meeting.
A few weeks ago during a visit to Springfield, Jeffries acknowledged the push to get more seats in some states, including Illinois. President Donald Trump wants to “rig the midterms," he told POLITICO. "Democrats will respond in self-defense of the American people.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker didn’t immediately return a request for comment, but he previously has not ruled out congressional redistricting. "None of us want to do it. None of us want to go through a redistricting process. But if we're forced to, it's something we'll consider doing," he said in a recent interview.
The Illinois General Assembly, which is controlled by Democrats in both chambers, would have to vote on any new maps.
After the 2020 census, Democrats redrew district maps to adjust for losing a seat because of population decline. They cut out two Republican incumbents and created a new district favoring their party. The state's congressional delegation now includes 14 Democrats and three Republicans from deeply conservative areas of the state.
Regardless of the political dynamics, candidates have until Nov. 3 to file for congressional races, meaning any revised map would need to be finalized before that deadline.
Election attorneys in Illinois say the Legislature can make adjustments to accommodate new boundaries.
“The main complication is that currently, each district has a different signature requirement, based on the number of votes cast in that district in the last primary," said election lawyer Michael Dorf, whose past clients include the Democratic Party of Illinois and several statewide officials. “But the Legislature could revert to the standard used in the first election following a redistricting, where every congressional candidate just needs 600 signatures.”
So far, leaders in the Illinois House and Senate say there are no ongoing talks about altering the current map. But it could come up in caucus meetings today when lawmakers return for a legislative session to take up new bills and address potential vetoes.
“We haven’t seen any maps. We haven’t had any conversations with our members about maps,” House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said in a statement when asked Monday whether his caucus would be addressing the issue.
Illinois House Republican Leader Tony McCombie said “it would be obscene” for Illinois Democrats “to erase” any Republican-held seats given Trump won 44 percent of the statewide vote.
A man who scaled an iron security fence in the middle of the night, eluded police and used beer bottles filled with gasoline to ignite the occupied Pennsylvania governor’s mansion pleaded guilty Tuesday to attempted murder and other charges.
Cody Balmer, 38, also entered pleas to terrorism, 22 counts of arson, aggravated arson, burglary, aggravated assault of Gov. Josh Shapiro, 21 counts of reckless endangerment and loitering in the April 13 attack that did millions of dollars in damage to the state-owned brick building.
Under a plea deal, Balmer was sentenced to 25 to 50 years in prison.
Shapiro and members of his family had to be awakened and evacuated, but no one was injured. The multiple endangerment charges reflected the number of people in the residence at the time, including the governor’s family, guests and state troopers.
The fire was set hours after they celebrated the Jewish holiday of Passover with a Seder in the residence. Prosecutors played video clips that showed Molotov cocktails going off and a figure inside and outside the residence. Judge Deborah Curcillo called the video “horrific” and “very frightening.”
Balmer told police he planned to beat Shapiro with a small sledgehammer if he had encountered him after breaking into the building, according to court documents. Balmer turned himself in the next afternoon to face charges of attempted homicide, terrorism, aggravated arson and aggravated assault.
Police say Balmer broke in through the southern wing of the residence, into a room often used to entertain crowds and display art. Investigators recovered two broken glass beer bottles containing gasoline. The fire charred walls, tables, buffet serving dishes, plates and a piano. Window panes and brick around doors and windows were also damaged.
Shapiro's Jewish faith and the attack during the Passover weekend raised questions about Balmer's motivation, but Balmer told The Associated Press in a May letter from jail that had not been a factor in his decision.
“He can be Jewish, Muslim, or a purple people eater for all I care and as long as he leaves me and mine alone,” Balmer wrote.
He said in a brief June 9 video interview from Camp Hill State Prison that he did think beforehand about whether children might be injured.
“Does anyone ever consider children?” Balmer said in June. “It doesn't seem that way. I sure as hell did. I'm glad no one got hurt.” Asked why he felt Shapiro had somehow done him wrong, Balmer replied: “I'm not going to answer that.”
Balmer’s mother said days after his arrest that she had tried to get him assistance for mental health issues, but “nobody would help.” Court proceedings had been delayed while he received mental health treatment, his lawyer has said.
At a court hearing a few days after the fire, Balmer told a judge he was an unemployed welder with no income or savings and “a lot of children.”
The residence, built in 1968, did not have sprinklers. Work to fix the damage and to bolster its security features continues.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills joined her state's crowded Democratic Senate primary as the establishment favorite on Tuesday, aiming to flip Republican Sen. Susan Collins' seat in a pivotal midterm year.
Democrats view the seat as one of their top pickup opportunities — the only in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 — and Mills is among a few top-tier candidates Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer aggressively recruited to run this cycle. But first the term-limited governor must contend with a competitive primary against breakout candidate Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who announced he has more than $3 million in the bank and already received the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Maine Beer Company owner Dan Kleban is also running for the nomination and his fundraising figures will be made public Wednesday, when federal filings are released.
In her launch video, Mills highlighted her recent fight with President Donald Trump over transgender sports and accused Collins of enabling him. "I won't sit idly by while Maine people suffer and politicians like Susan Collins bend the knee as if this were normal," Mills said.
Despite initial hesitation, the governor started interviewing staff and telling local reporters she was seriously considering a bid last month.
She addressed that long contemplation in her announcement, saying in the video, "Honestly, if this president and this Congress were doing things that were even remotely acceptable, I wouldn't be running for the U.S. Senate."
The race sets up the latest generational clash for a party struggling to find its footing after losing the White House and both branches of Congress last year.
Mills, who won her seat by wide margins in her last two races, is 77 years old, making her five years Collins' senior at a time when Americans are grappling with debates about the age of their politicians. If elected, she would be the oldest first-year senator ever. Platner is 41 and unlikely to leave the race for Mills; Kleban, who is 48, has so far dodged questions about what he would do if Mills jumped in.
Democrats need to pick up four seats in order to win back control of the Senate, a difficult task that all but has to include a pickup in Maine, where Harris won by 7 points.
Democrats poured millions of dollars into an ultimately-unsuccessful effort to unseat Collins in 2020 — but her declining popularity in the bluing state is giving Democrats hope that next year’s race could be their best chance yet.
Republicans are eager to expose Mills' weaknesses, and have already targeted her public fight Trump, as well as her age.
Democrats’ hardline opposition to rising health care costs isn’t earning them voters’ trust on economic issues — a disconnect that lays bare the party’s challenge heading into next year’s midterms.
Voters blame Republicans more than Democrats for the federal government shutdown, according to a review of polling conducted after services shuttered. An Economist/YouGov survey of 1,648 Americans showed 41 percent hold the GOP accountable for the lapse in federal funding, compared to 30 percent who point a finger at Democrats and 23 percent who hold the parties equally responsible. A 2,441-person CBS News/YouGov survey also found Americans blame Republicans more than Democrats — 39 percent to 30 percent — with 31 percent faulting both. And a Harvard/Harris poll demonstrated 2,413 voters impugned Republicans more than Democrats by 6 points.
Those same voters, however, delivered the GOP a 4-point advantage when asked which party they trust more on economic issues. And a survey from Democratic-aligned firm Navigator Research showed 1,000 registered voters faulting Republicans for the shutdown by 11 points, but giving them a 2-point advantage on inflation and cost of living.
That dichotomy underscores an electoral hurdle for the party locked out of power: Even as Democrats hold the line over expiring health care subsidies that could send millions of Americans’ insurance prices soaring, voters still favor Republicans on the economy and cost of living.
“Are we going to get all the working class back? Probably not,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is seeking reelection in a redrawn Texas district while facing federal bribery charges. “[But] I see an opening here. … And we need to jump on that and just really focus and repeat over and over and over that we Democrats are interested in bringing costs down.”
The next challenge for his party, he added: “Make sure people understand we are a viable alternative.”
The shutdown-polling paradox has shown up in surveys for months, as Democrats struggle to move voters who are souring on President Donald Trump and his party’s handling of the economy and inflation into their corner. And it underscores the uphill battle Democrats face in wresting power from Republicans, even as they narrow their scattered messaging to affordability.
Frontliner Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) called her party’s shutdown stance “an important step” toward convincing voters Democrats can tackle rising costs.
“And it’s a crucial step to take right now … to make sure that people don’t see their premiums go up exponentially,” said Gillen, who is defending the Long Island swing seat she flipped last year. “But then it needs to be part of a broader discussion to show that we are on the side of the American people and we care about the economic pain they’re feeling and we have a concrete plan.”
The party is still hashing out the particulars of that plan, which depending on the candidate ranges from pitching a hardscrabble background to railing against a rigged economy and vilifying the billionaires that benefit from it.
Right now, Democrats are trying to leverage their minimal power to force Republicans to stop Affordable Care Act subsidies from expiring at the end of the year, attempting to squeeze out a policy win on a top cost-of-living issue as they scramble to regain working-class voters.
The political winds have been shifting in Democrats’ favor on the economy. Trump’s net approval rating on the subject has nosedived since the start of his second term, polling averages show. Voters routinely rank inflation as one of their top issues, but disapprove of his handling of it. The latest CBS/YouGov poll showed three-quarters of adults don’t think Trump is doing enough to lower prices — one of his 2024 campaign trail pledges. Labor Department statistics show the job market is slowing.
Despite signs of economic distress, Republicans consistently enjoy a polling advantage on the economy. And Liam Kerr, who co-founded the centrist WelcomePAC, warned that Democrats won’t be able to erase it through a single stand on health care costs.
“You can’t just do it one time and all is forgotten,” Kerr said. “Playing against type requires even more effort.”
Nevertheless, Democrats remain confident they can reverse their heavy losses in 2024 by drilling down on voters’ cost-of-living concerns, according to interviews with half a dozen congressional candidates.
They cast their party’s shutdown play as part of a broader strategy that ranges from hammering Republicans over tariffs that could drive up prices for consumers and for businesses, to battling utility companies over rising bills. And they believe the slate of working-class candidates the party is putting up for House and Senate seats, from a firefighter in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley to a waitress in western Wisconsin, can convince voters that Democrats care about blue-collar Americans who have turned toward Trump in recent years.
They’re getting backup from Democrats’ national campaign arm, which on Friday launched a five-figure digital-and-billboard ad campaign and organizing effort to alert voters to the pending increase in their premiums.
Still, shutdowns carry risks for both parties, especially the longer they drag on. The Trump administration on Friday began firing federal workers, which could increase pressure on both sides to bring their standoff to an end. And some polls already show voters think Democrats should cave and reopen the government; a sentiment expressed by nearly two-thirds of voters in the Harvard/Harris survey and just over half of respondents to the Navigator poll.
But Democrats are dug in.
“We have to give people a reason to fight, and we have to get back to catering to the many over the few,” Cherlynn Stevenson, a state representative running for the Democratic nomination in Kentucky’s open 6th District, said. “This can be a big turning point for our party.”
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Dan Rayfield is Oregon’s attorney general — and the latest state-level politician to be thrust into the national spotlight by a legal clash with the Trump administration. In this instance, it’s over the federal government ordering troops into Portland, where protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement have been deemed rebellion by the president.
I would invite anybody to come to Oregon and I think it's pretty clear that there isn't an invasion going on in Oregon,” Rayfield says. “Sometimes I'll joke the only rebellion going on right now is when I tried to feed my son a vegetable.”
The AG explained that his opposition to Trump’s proposed deployment is because, in his view, the president’s stated reasons for doing so aren’t based on the facts — or in the best interest of the people of Oregon.“If you want to deploy the military, if you want to federalize the National Guard, I'm okay with that if you have the right facts for it.,” Rayfield says. “We should give any president some deference, but when you have zero facts to base it on, that's when you've got to draw the line.”
In this week’s episode of The Conversation, Rayfield talks with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns about how he’s trying to defend states rights by fending off the Trump administration’s attempted National Guard incursion in Portland, the reality of what’s happening in the city, freedom of speech and how progressive policies have drawn outside attention to the state in recent years.
Plus, blogger and activist Vani Hari — better known as “The Food Babe” — joins the show to talk about her influence on HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and how she hopes to help the MAHA agenda become reality.
Check out the interview with Dan Rayfield on YouTube and the full episode wherever you get your podcasts.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger passed on a chance to use one of the most high-profile moments of her run for Virginia governor to withdraw her endorsement for her party’s attorney general nominee for his use of violent rhetoric in a text message.
The subject of Jay Jones’ violent message from three years ago emerged immediately as the Democrat faced Republican Winsome Earle-Sears on Thursday in the only planned debate of the closely watched race.
Spanberger condemned the text as “abhorrent” but repeatedly declined to say whether she would withdraw her support for Jones, saying it should be left to the voters in the Nov. 4 election.
“The voters now have the information, and it is up to voters to make an individual choice based on this information,” she said.
Jones suggested the former Republican House speaker should get “two bullets to the head.” He has apologized for the text, which became public last week amid rising fears of political violence following a string of incidents, including the killing of Charlie Kirk on Sept. 10 and the attack on Minnesota lawmakers in June.
Jones' text dominated the early portion of the debate at Norfolk State University that otherwise include feisty exchanges on public policy and culture war issues.
Earle-Sears pivoted from the first question, about Virginia’s car tax, to insist that Spanberger address the issue. “My opponent needs to answer about Jay Jones.”
The lieutenant governor then repeatedly turned to ask Spanberger what it would take for her to call for Jones to leave the race. “You have little girls,” she said, looking directly at her opponent and ignoring moderators’ attempts to allow the Democratic nominee to answer. “What would it take? Him pulling the trigger? Is that what would do it and then you would say he needs to get out of the race, Abigail?”
While Spanberger declined to say whether she would continue to support Jones, she made it clear she disagreed with his text. "I denounced them when I learned of them and I will denounce them at every opportunity," she said.
The debate frequently bogged down with cross-talk and by Earle-Sears' interruptions of her opponent. Their differences centered around whose party deserves blame for the government shutdown, immigration enforcement, abortion rights and gay marriage — which the lieutenant governor opposes.
Virginia is one of two states electing governors in November and is often viewed as a bellwether election for the party occupying the White House. Democrats were hoping for decisive wins in Virginia to use as a springboard into next year’s midterms, but have encountered some turbulence as Republicans have announced a combined $3 million ad push in recent days to keep the text messaging saga top of mind for voters in the campaign’s final stretch.
President Donald Trump looms large in the Virginia gubernatorial contest. He’s not only unpopular with Democrats and Independents, his administration’s gutting of the federal government through DOGE cuts and his push to deny backpay to federal workers still on the payroll but forced off the job during the partial federal government shutdown disproportionately impact Virginia voters.
There was little talk about the history at stake during the hour-long debate. Either would be the first female governor of Virginia and Earle-Sears would be the first Black woman to lead the state.
President Donald Trump’s mid-cycle redistricting push is on the verge of stalling in Indiana, top state Republican officials have warned the White House, and Vice President JD Vance is on his way to the Hoosier state to turn things around.
The cautionary note, shared by three Republicans close to the deliberations, prompted Vance’s second trip in three months to the state to mount a “hard push,” one of the people said. The people cited in this story were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.
During the visit, the White House political shop is threatening to conduct its own whip operation.
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, conveyed his concerns about the redistricting effort’s chances in the state Senate to the White House last week, two people familiar with those discussions told POLITICO.
One of those people said Indiana GOP Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray “has been doing nothing to help the effort along or encourage his members, but has been really sort of hiding behind them, and maybe even subtly or not so subtly pouring cold water on the idea so that he can say he doesn't have the votes.”
The White House’s renewed pressure campaign comes as Republicans look to keep up their momentum in their national redistricting fight — building on new maps they passed in Texas and Missouri that could net them up to six House seats in next year’s pivotal midterms. Remapping Indiana’s congressional lines could help the GOP secure two more.
Some of those seats could be offset by the Democratic push to respond in California, where voters will decide on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push in an Election Day ballot question. And given the GOP’s narrow advantage in the House, any stalling from a red state takes on added importance.
“I think the main thing is that the governor has consistently said that he wants to get the legislature on board with this approach,” the second person said. “He has indicated to the White House that he doesn't think that they're all there yet. And their main reaction to that is that, you know, the vice president wants to come out and continue to put the hard sell on Indiana legislative Republicans to get from point A to point B on this.”
Bray, according to the two Republicans, delivered the White House the same message. The state’s Speaker of the House, Todd Huston, told the president’s team he is willing to “get this done,” one of the Republicans said, but is concerned about securing votes in the Senate, as well as the optics of remapping the state mid-decade.
“I don't think Houston has been particularly helpful, but he's not really been harmful,” the person said. “I think he'll go along. And we can pull the house along if we have to.”
White House deputy chief of staff James Blair and Political Director Matt Brasseaux are expected to arrive in the state Thursday in their personal capacities to help with the pitch. They’ll be joined by Republican National Committee chief of staff Michael Ambrosini.
“I think the White House is going to take stock of the votes,” one of the Republicans told POLITICO. “And if people are going to say we’re not going to help Republicans, then I think the White House is going to make them tell them that to their face."
The White House and a spokesperson for Vance did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Bray declined to comment. And a spokesperson for Huston said, “the Speaker is still having conversations and getting feedback from his caucus members and constituents on this topic.”
Vance learned of the talks in recent days, one of the Republicans allied with Trump’s efforts said, and offered to go to Indiana for a second time, following his August visit to meet with local Senate Republicans.
Vance’s visit comes just weeks after former Transportation Secretary and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeig visited the Indiana Statehouse to rail against redistricting efforts, saying that Hoosier Republican leaders were “ashamed of what they’re doing.”
White House allies in Indiana have argued that the death of MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk, who backed primaries for holdout state lawmakers, should lead to renewed efforts to redistrict.
“They killed Charlie Kirk — the least that we can do is go through a legal process and redistrict Indiana into a nine to zero map,” Sen. Jim Banks, the Republican of Indiana, told POLITICO last month.
The Indiana Capital Chronicle earlier Wednesday first reported of Vance’s visit.
“It’s probably fair to say that the House, all things being equal, would rather not do it, but they're also not going to go walk the plank before they know they've got cover across the hallway,” the person added of the state Senate.
Late spending, exacerbated by a mid-battle candidate switch, and lack of attention to voters’ top concerns are among the reasons Democrats lost the White House last year, the Democratic National Committee determined in its assessment of the defeat.
The DNC started briefing top Democrats this week on parts of its post-election review, a highly anticipated post-mortem for a party still divided over what led to President Donald Trump’s second victory and how to forge a path back to electoral power.
DNC officials argued Democrats didn’t spend early or consistently enough to engage and persuade voters, one of several problems the party faced in 2024, the committee said. Swapping Joe Biden with Kamala Harris atop the ticket intensified those systemic, long-term problems for the party, the officials said, according to two people briefed by the DNC this week and granted anonymity to discuss those conversations. So far, Biden's age has not come up, they said.
The DNC officials said the party’s failure to respond to voters’ top issues led to losses across once-core constituencies, including working class voters. One of the people briefed said they understood that assessment to mean Democrats “didn’t talk enough about bread-and-butter issues, and instead, we talked about social issues, social anxieties.” That could portend a DNC critique of the Harris campaign, which some Democrats said emphasized abortion and democracy over the economy and immigration.
The DNC is not expected to release its post-election report until after the New Jersey and Virginia elections in November, arguing privately they must focus on the off-year races in which Democrats appear poised to win the blue states.
The third person briefed on the report said it will examine Democrats’ role in the media ecosystem, advocacy, organizing and technology, and make recommendations for how the party can improve. It will also analyze paid content, messaging, candidate travel and spending decisions from last year.
One of the people described the takeaways as “one, we can’t invest late in building out infrastructure in the states, and two, long-term investment is more important than late investment.”
“The problem with our side — we saw it in 2016, 2020 and 2024 — the money comes late and we need the money to come earlier. The issue for our side is not the lack of money, it’s how late it comes,” the person added.
Even so, it’s not clear how some of these conclusions square with reality.
The Biden campaign did only maintain a skeletal on-the-ground staff in some battleground states, worrying in-state Democrats, as POLITICO reported in December 2023. But Biden’s campaign also started communicating with voters earlier than any other modern presidential reelection campaign.
What questions the DNC tackles in its post-mortem, what conclusions it draws, and who it blames, if anyone, will inevitably inflame Democrats, reopening wounds over an election in which the party lost ground with voters across every demographic and ceded every swing state.
DNC Chair Ken Martin pledged to publicly release the results after he was elected in February, turning what would end up in the post-election review into a parlor game for frustrated Democrats. Some hope the party will take aim at the consultant class, a position Martin ran on during his in-house race. Some Democrats want the leadership of Harris’ campaign to receive more direct blame, while others point fingers at Future Forward, the flagship super PAC that backed her bid. And others believe the DNC needs to more aggressively reevaluate its own role in the defeat.
It’s also not clear if the report will tackle Biden’s advanced age — a top attack line from the GOP that his team downplayed, but one that was put on national display during his disastrous debate performance — and well as his decision to not exit the race until three months before the election.
So far, in these sessions, the DNC did not call out any person or entity by name, these two people said, but one acknowledged, “I don’t know what’s in the full document.”
When asked about the briefings, a DNC aide said the committee was in regular contact with Democrats to share early insights of its analysis, but added the report was not complete and interviews are still ongoing. The aide warned that topics not covered in the briefings may be addressed in the final assessment.
Two of those briefed said the DNC is also using the sessions to prepare for the New Jersey and Virginia elections, where it’s piloting new voter contact projects.
“The DNC has this core role as an infrastructure hub, and they’re looking critically at where that wasn’t strong enough and early enough,” the second person continued. “There were a lot of conversations about what kind of quality persuasion tactics should be deployed, how long that stuff takes, the perpetual problem of talking to voters at the very end of the cycle.”
They also said the DNC shared an analysis of the Republican ecosystem, particularly focused on their online communications, where Democrats “tend to go dark in the off-years in a way [Republicans] don’t do,” the person added.
Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson is challenging 10-term House incumbent Steve Cohen, turning the Democratic primary into the latest test of the party’s debate over age.
David Hogg's political group, established to elect younger people to office, is pledging $1 million to Pearson.
In his announcement video, Pearson described himself as a "Memphian, born and raised, who understands how to build bridges across race, identity, ethnicity and generations in order to build the future that we want to live into.”
“We always stand up against those who try to silence us, push us to the periphery, push us to the back, in the places that should represent us,” Pearson added. “Now, I am ready to fight for us in the United States Congress.”
The primary represents the latest clash between generational forces in the party, with the 30-year-old Pearson taking on the 76-year-old Cohen. A wave of Democratic primary candidates, from California to Indiana to Georgia, are challenging longtime incumbents whom they feel are weak leaders at a time when the party is searching for a path back to power. They argue the party needs a stylistic makeover, led by a younger generation of candidates.
Pearson didn’t name-check Cohen in his launch video, but a pair of his progressive backers did. Hogg, who co-founded Leaders We Deserve and pledged to challenge “asleep-at-the-wheel” Democrats, urged Cohen to “pass the torch” in a statement. Justice Democrats called Cohen an “average absentee congressman” who “rarely shows up in the community, campaigns for support or holds town halls … while still cashing checks from corporate PACs.”
Cohen is also the only white member from either party to represent a majority-Black district.
Pearson and Tennessee state Rep. Justin Jones gained national attention for their expulsion, then reinstatement, to the state legislature in 2023. The pair led a gun control protest on the state House floor after six children were murdered at a Christian school in Nashville.
Cohen, who was first elected in 2006, has faced primary challenges before and he’s usually crushed his opponents. In 2024, he won with nearly three-quarters of the vote.
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed called a fundraising email that went out on the anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel a mistake in a statement provided first to POLITICO.
“That email mistakenly went out yesterday. Abdul has been clear and consistent: he holds equally valuable the lives of all innocent people and condemns violence against them," said spokesperson Roxie Richner.
The fundraising email from El-Sayed's campaign started by marking that "Two years ago this month, Netanyahu’s military launched a ground invasion of Gaza. Since then, the world has watched tragedy unfold in real time."
It drew condemnation from many on the right and some Democrats, who criticized it for omitting any mention of Hamas' attack on Israel at the outset of the war. El-Sayed put out a separate statement on the two-year anniversary of the conflict Tuesday condemning Hamas' "heinous attack on Oct. 7" and also condemning Israel's "horrific genocide on Gaza."
The Israel-Hamas war could become a major flashpoint in the Michigan Senate race, with Democrats believing the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee could intervene in the contest. The group's political arm has previously backed Rep. Haley Stevens, who's also vying for the Senate nomination, during her time in Congress.
El-Sayed had been a backer of Michigan's "uncommitted" movement during the 2024 election, though he'd said he would still support Democrats over Donald Trump. He ultimately endorsed Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
Bari Weiss, co-founder and CEO of The Free Press, has been appointed CBS News’ editor-in-chief, Paramount announced on Monday. The Free Press will now operate under the company as well.
It’s a major move from the company, which merged with Skydance Corp. in August under CEO David Ellison. Under Ellison, the company has made several strategic acquisitions and is reportedly exploring acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery.
“This move is part of Paramount’s bigger vision to modernize content and the way it connects – directly and passionately – to audiences around the world,” Ellison said in a statement. “We believe the majority of the country longs for news that is balanced and fact-based, and we want CBS to be their home.”
Though she will remain CEO and editor-in-chief of The Free Press, Weiss will report directly to Ellison. The Free Press will maintain its own independent brand and operations, the company said.
Weiss and her wife, Nellie Bowles, launched The Free Press in 2021 with Weiss’ sister Suzy. She was previously an opinion writer for The New York Times.
Partnering with Paramount, Weiss said, allows The Free Press to expand its audience of 1.5 million.
“The values that we’ve hammered out here over the years—journalism based in curiosity and honesty, a culture of healthy disagreement, our shared belief in America’s promise—now have the opportunity to go very, very big,” Weiss wrote in a blog post on The Free Press.
Earlier this year, CBS and Paramount settled a $16 million lawsuit with President Donald Trump over a “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Paramount then hired an ombudsman to analyze bias in CBS reporting.
Weiss said she believes in Ellison and “the entire leadership team who took over Paramount this summer.” She added that they plan to make CBS “the most trusted news organization of the 21st Century.”
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Mallory McMorrow, the Michigan Democrat running in a three-way primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has shifted her stance on the war in Gaza and now believes it is a genocide.
Her latest evolution came during a chat with voters at a brewery in the West Michigan town of Allegan Sunday, just days ahead of the anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that led to the conflict. McMorrow’s team provided video of the exchange to POLITICO.
During the back-and-forth, an attendee asked McMorrow whether she would accept support from AIPAC — the politically influential pro-Israel lobby that’s backing rival Democratic candidate Haley Stevens, a member of congress.
“I’m not accepting AIPAC support,” McMorrow told the questioner. “I’m not seeking their endorsement. I’ve never accepted their support. And what we are seeing in the Middle East is a moral abomination.”
She went on to say she would’ve supported Sen. Bernie Sanders’ resolution to block offensive arm sales to Israel and called for a two-state solution.
“My view on this is we have completely lost the humanity of this issue,” McMorrow continued. “It is talked about as like a third rail litmus test without acknowledging these are human beings. They’re people. And our position should be that there is no individual life that is worth more than another individual life.”
A different voter interrupted her to asked whether the conflict was a genocide. McMorrow paused for several seconds, exhaled, and responded, “based on the definition, yes.”
“I don’t care what you call it,” she added, saying for some Jews the term “means something very different to them: that if you lost family members in the Holocaust it means the specific medical testing, gas chambers, being put on a train — I don’t want us to get lost in, ‘do you agree with this definition or not.’ I want to get to the solution.”
The issue is personal for McMorrow, whose husband is Jewish: She received a death threat on her daughter’s life after Oct. 7.
Her remarks demonstrate the fast-moving politics of the issue in a battleground state ahead of next year’s midterms. And they come as the Michigan Democratic candidates are looking for ways to contrast ahead of the election.
They also isolate Stevens as the only remaining Democratic candidate not to call the conflict a genocide. Stevens recently declined two interviews with POLITICO on the matter. Abdul El-Sayed, a former Michigan health official, has long said the war meets that criteria.
Asked 13 days ago by POLITICO about whether the conflict in Gaza is a genocide, McMorrow said “dehumanizing Palestinians, declaring collective guilt, blocking food and medicine and bombing Gaza to the point of uninhabitability is a moral catastrophe.” She declined to use the word “genocide.”
A spokesperson for McMorrow said she based her new stance on a United Nations Commission of Inquiry report from Sept.16 declaring that a genocide took place, as well as conversations with community leaders.
Asked for comment on McMorrow’s position change and its involvement in the race, an AIPAC spokesperson said in a statement: “Israel is fighting a just and moral war and is demonstrating a clear willingness to end the conflict. Rather than making false and malicious allegations against the Jewish state, the pressure should be applied on Hamas to release the hostages and give up power.”
On Saturday, the day before McMorrow called it a genocide, she told POLITICO she faces questions about the issue at nearly every event. She acknowledged it was “a probably small percentage of voters that are voting based on the issue, but it's a lingering concern people have.”
El-Sayed, who is endorsed by Sanders, has warned that AIPAC backing Stevens and spending a lot of money in the race could help Republicans win the seat. He’s noted the state’s “uncommitted movement,” the national pro-Palestinian group, could fray the party’s coalition. Like McMorrow, he said he faces questions about the issue at every campaign stop.
“When I talk about the fact that our tax dollars are being misappropriated to weaponize food against children and to subsidize a genocide, rather than to invest in real people in their communities and their kids and their schools and their health care, it is the single biggest applause line in every speech,” El-Sayed told POLITICO in an interview before a party confab here. “People understand that this is not about what’s happening over there. This is about what's happening with our tax dollars over here.”
Later in the evening Saturday, McMorrow, el-Sayed and Stevens gathered inside a room for Best of the West, a traditional Michigan Democratic fundraiser at a hotel in downtown Grand Rapids. There, they heard Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, who is running for governor, also say that the war in Gaza is a genocide.
McMorrow’s comments came on a weekend in which candidates running in the contentious and longhaul primary—it’s not scheduled to take place until August, though state lawmakers have discussed moving it up—sharpened their knives against one another.
McMorrow and El-Sayed have also contrasted with Stevens over her receiving the tacit backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose leadership has become a flashpoint among a new generation of Democratic candidates.
Not long after El-Sayed recorded himself trying to eat a heaping, 12-stack cheeseburger to talk about rising costs and billionaires, POLITICO reported that Stevens was set to take a luxury California fundraising trip in Napa Valley this weekend amid the shutdown with members of the DSCC.
“The DSCC believes that Haley has the best chance to win in the general,” reads an email obtained by POLITICO from Stevens’ fundraising firm. “With a proven record of winning in tough elections, she starts this race with a clear lead. The Republicans are uniting in opposition to Haley Stevens in the primary, viewing her defeat as clearing a path to capturing a Michigan U.S. Senate seat for the first time in three decades.”
The email promotes a weekend fundraising swing though Los Angeles in addition to her Napa stop. “If the government hasn’t reopened, she won't attend the events,” a spokesperson for Stevens said.
Still, in such a competitive race even the trip itself was fodder.
“I've never been to a wine cave,” El-Sayed, who doesn't drink, told POLITICO in an interview. “I don’t really know what happens there, but I'll tell you this, I've been all over my state, and I've never found one.”
CLARIFICATION: Due to a transcription error, a quote from El-Sayed has been clarified.
Rising GOP star Rep. Wesley Hunt is launching a long-shot Texas Senate bid, scrambling a heated primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton.
The race for the Republican nomination in the Lone Star State will likely be one the most expensive and bruising primary contests of the 2026 midterm cycle — and some Democrats see an opportunity in the red-leaning state if Republicans surrender their incumbent advantage. Already, Paxton has an edge in most polling of the primary race against Cornyn, though the incumbent senator has closed the gap in more recent surveys. President Donald Trump has yet to endorse in the contest.
Hunt’s announcement on Monday comes after months of work and millions of dollars spent by groups aligned with the two-term congressman to boost his profile outside of his Houston-area political base.
“The time is NOW,” Hunt said in a post on his X account that included a campaign video of testimonials from his wife, brother and longtime colleagues playing up his military record and his commitment to public service. It also included images of him standing next to Trump and made no mention of either of his primary opponents.
Now a three-way battle for the GOP nomination, some Republican strategists anticipate none of the candidates will garner enough votes to win the March 3 primary outright, likely forcing a runoff in May. Privately, some establishment Republicans worry that Hunt's entry in the race could boost Paxton. Over the summer, the establishment-aligned Senate Leadership Fund urged leaders to boost Cornyn’s embattled reelection campaign, arguing in memo obtained by POLITICO in August that Paxton is a “weak candidate who puts the Senate seat at risk in the general election.”
Responding to news that Hunt had launched his bid, SLC communications director Chris Gustafson said, "It's unfortunate that Wesley Hunt has decided to abandon President Trump's efforts to protect the House majority and instead his person ambition... With every credible poll showing him in a distant third place, the only person celebrating today is a giddy Chuck Schumer."
Hunt published a video on X on Monday in which he said that he takes "offense" to the "establishment" criticizing his bid. "I assure you, this is not a vanity project."
Cornyn is in the political fight of his career as he looks to court a base that's increasingly viewed him as disloyal to Trump, particularly after the senator said that Trump could not win the 2024 presidential election before eventually endorsing him the following year. According to internal polling from Cornyn's campaign conducted last month, Hunt received 17 percent of the vote in a hypothetical three-way matchup. It also found Cornyn garnered 32 percent to Paxton's 31 percent support.
“John Cornyn is a battle-tested conservative who continues to be a leader in delivering President Trump’s agenda in the U.S. Senate and he’s the best candidate to keep Texas in the Republican Senate Majority," National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement. "Now that Wesley has chosen personal ambition over holding President Trump's House Majority, there will be a full vetting of his record. Senator Cornyn's conservative record of accomplishment stands tall against Wesley’s."
But Paxton has some vulernabilities of his own. He survived an impeachment inquiry in 2023 where he was acquitted of 16 articles stemming from misuse of power, corruption and bribery. He is also in the midst of a bitter divorce from state Sen. Anglea Paxton, who said she was seeking an end to their 38-year-marriage on “biblical grounds,” publicly accusing him of adultery.
Hunt has made his closeness to Trump a key part of his pitch. He served as a surrogate for the president on the campaign trail last year, working alongside fellow Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to boost Trump’s standing among Black voters.
Trump’s endorsement is seen as pivotal in GOP primary. To receive it, Hunt will likely have to prove he can raise money at the same rate as Cornyn and Paxton. In the most recent campaign finance reports, Hunt raised just over $400,000 for the quarter ending in July — impressive for a member that faces little opposition but far short of what he'd need to mount a serious statewide bid. Meanwhile, Paxton hauled in $2.9 million for the same period while Cornyn’s political operation pulled in $3.9 million, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
Democrats also have a contested primary. Former Rep. Colin Allred, a Dallas Democrat who fell short in his push to unseat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz last year, is facing off against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star.
Democrats are pushing their candidates to go on the offense on crime ahead of the 2026 midterms, seeing upside in what’s been one of their weakest electoral issues.
A private polling memo that shows potential openings for the party to peel voters away from Republicans on one of their core issues is being distributed to House Democrats and their campaign committees, and was shared exclusively with POLITICO.
The battleground-district survey from Global Strategy Group — commissioned by gun-safety advocacy group Giffords and House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership — offers a bleak assessment of Democrats’ starting point: 89 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed want their Congress member to take steps to keep them safe, but only 38 percent trust Democrats over Republicans with that task.
Voters also reported preferring Republicans to Democrats with preventing and reducing crime and cracking down on violent crime — gaps that grew among swing voters.
But, in a hint of hope for the party looking to neutralize a weakness President Donald Trump will exploit next year, those voters swung toward Democrats in all four categories after hearing messaging acknowledging crime is a problem and showing steps the party has taken to increase safety. Specifically, pollsters cited cracking down on gun trafficking and strengthening firearm background checks. The persuasion effort included criticisms of GOP cuts to gun-violence prevention funding, the Trump administration’s attempts to roll back firearm regulations and Republicans’ ties to pro-gun groups.
The double-digit swings gave Democrats a 2-point advantage when respondents were asked about crime reduction, 4 points on keeping people safe and 6 points on crime prevention. The shifts were even more pronounced among swing voters.
Democrats also shrunk the GOP advantage on preventing violent crime to 1 point.
Giffords, House Majority Forward and Global Strategy Group pollsters are in the midst of briefing top House Democrats, frontline candidates and party committees about the poll, which was conducted in July. The groups are angling to revamp Democrats’ crime messaging, urging candidates to project toughness on crime and campaign against traditionally law-and-order-focused Republicans for making cities less safe by slashing federal funding.
And they want the party to shift quickly, lest they give Republicans a runway to ramp up their attacks in the upcoming midterms, when Democrats look to deny the GOP its slim advantage in the House.
“We do not want people to get shot or stabbed or carjacked. We want to hold people accountable when they break the law. None of that is revolutionary. But we do have to actually say that,” Emma Brown, Giffords’ executive director, said.
Doug Thornell, the CEO of consulting firm SKDK, who advised the polling project and works with Democrats including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, called crime “personal and emotional to voters, and they expect their leaders to make it a serious priority.”
But Democrats face a difficult task in trying to figure out how to handle voters’ concerns over crime, with Trump fomenting those worries by sending the National Guard into blue cities across the country as part of a broader law-and-order crackdown.
Democrats are responding to the push with recent statistics that show violent crime falling from a pandemic-era spike and touting their investments in anti-violence initiatives. But they have struggled to change voters’ perceptions that they’re weak on crime — a belief that helped Trump’s 2024 victory.
And Democrats have spent years trying to distance themselves from the “defund the police” slogan that hurt them with their own constituents — touting support for law enforcement and tough-on-crime tactics in an acknowledgment they need to retool their approach to criminal justice.
“Anytime Republicans make an aggressive stance and the Democrats criticize it, it looks like the Democrats are defending the status quo. And no one believes the status quo is acceptable when it comes to crime,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said.
The Democratic groups that commissioned the poll see political openings on crime and on gun violence. Mass shootings topped the list of crimes voters worry, and neighborhood shootings ranked third. Majorities of respondents said easy access to guns and illegal gun trafficking contribute heavily to crime.
Operatives point to Moore, as well as Mayors Justin Bibb of Cleveland and Michelle Wu of Boston, as Democrats who’ve prioritized public safety while parrying Trump’s National Guard push.
But Democrats are not unified.
Some battleground-district Democrats are imploring party leadership to do more to defend law enforcement funding, while others in the emerging slate of populist candidates hardly mention public safety as they position themselves to win back working-class voters on economic messaging.
Democratic-aligned think tanks and strategists disagree on the specifics of what more proactive messaging should look like.
A recent Vera Institute polling presentation to Democratic National Committee members suggested the party use “serious about safety” messaging instead of “tough on crime” talking points and was quickly panned by more centrist Democratic figures — even as other aspects of the progressive criminal justice group’s argument aligned with advice being doled out across the party.
“This is where we should be unifying,” Kim Foxx, a former state’s attorney in Cook County, Illinois, said. “It's right there that we don't have transparency on police killings anymore, that in [the Trump administration’s] effort to go after immigration, they're cutting funding to strategies that work to reduce violence. … We just have to be bold and call it out with a consistent message.”
CHICAGO — Jesse Jackson Jr., once a rising Democratic star who saw his congressional career unravel in scandal, is returning to the political stage. He will announce his bid this week for the same Illinois congressional seat he vacated over a decade ago.
“Jesse has been meeting with residents whose concerns about the economy convinced him to run,” according to a person close to his campaign granted anonymity to speak freely. “He feels the district needs results fast and he is uniquely qualified to deliver.”
Jackson will spend the coming weeks unveiling his economic plan and policy platforms to address the cost of living, joblessness and health care access, according to the person.
It’s a dramatic twist for a man whose life once seemed destined for the national spotlight. The son of civil rights icon Rev. Jesse Jackson, he was first elected to Congress in 1995 and held his position for 17 years before it all came crashing down.
Jackson, whose brother is Illinois Rep. Jonathan Jackson, is now running for the seat currently held by Rep. Robin Kelly, who is stepping down to run for U.S. Senate in 2026. Kelly joins Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi in a competitive primary race to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, who announced he will not seek reelection — setting off a wave of political jockeying across Illinois.
Illinois is undergoing a rare political transformation, marked by a generational shift in leadership. Alongside Durbin, longtime Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Danny Davis have announced they also won’t seek reelection — creating an extraordinary power vacuum in the state's Democratic establishment. This moment of transition has opened the door for a new wave of ambitious contenders and a few familiar names, including former Rep. Melissa Bean and Jackson.
The Illinois Democrat is one of a long line of Illinois pols who’ve been caught up in corruption over the years. Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich went to prison before being pardoned by President Donald Trump. And former Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is scheduled to report to prison next week on his corruption conviction.
Jackson also wouldn’t be the first high-profile politician to seek retribution. Following his 2021 resignation as governor amid sexual harassment and nursing home scandals, Andrew Cuomo is also pursuing a political comeback with a run for New York City mayor.
In 2012, Jackson abruptly exited his seat, citing health reasons. A federal investigation revealed a misuse of campaign funds. Jackson pled guilty to siphoning $750,000 for personal luxuries, from Rolex watches to Michael Jackson memorabilia, leading to a prison sentence and a fall from grace.
Jackson served his time and then retreated to Chicago’s South Side, where he embarked on a redemption journey that he often shared in commentaries on Black radio stations. It drew the attention of former Rep. Bobby Rush, the longtime South Side congressmember who retired in 2024. He urged Jackson to get back into politics.
Over the summer, Jackson embarked on a “listening tour,” connecting with constituents. He saw it as a way to introduce himself to new voters to the Chicago South Side and south suburban district that has been redrawn since he left Congress.
Last week, Jackson returned to Washington for a fundraiser in his honor with some members of the Congressional Black Caucus.
And a recent poll showed he has high name recognition in a crowded field.
Still, his path may not be smooth. Jackson’s opponents include notable Democrats in the state, including state Sen. Robert Peters, who’s been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and David Hogg’s political group. Also running are state Sen. Willie Preston, Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, Water Reclamation Board Commissioner Yumeka Brown, management consultant Eric France, policy expert Adal Regis and community engagement expert Jeremy Young.
Roy Cooper raised $14.5 million during the first 65 days of his campaign — a record-breaking total for a Senate challenger in their first fundraising quarter in one of the most competitive races of 2026.
The fundraising haul, shared first with POLITICO, includes $10.8 million into the former North Carolina governor’s campaign account. Another $3.7 million was raised into joint fundraising committees with the party, which allows for bigger contributions. Of the donations, more than 90 percent were $100 or less, Cooper’s campaign said.
Whatley, who's been endorsed by President Donald Trump, and Cooper are expected to face off next fall.
Cooper and Whatley, a prodigious fundraiser with his own national network of donors, have turned this already marquee contest into what isexpected to be the most expensive Senate race in history. Operatives in both parties estimate spending to reach $650 million to $800 million.
Cooper’s first-quarter total beat the record set by Amy McGrath, the former Marine fighter pilot who challenged Sen. Mitch McConnell in 2020 and raised $10.7 million.
Democrats, locked out of power at every level in Washington, see North Carolina as their top offensive target, particularly after Cooper entered the race following the announced retirement of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Even so, Democrats face long shot odds in flipping control of the Senate in 2026.
Voters under 50 are the least open to electing a female president, and four in 10 Americans personally know someone who would not elect a woman to the White House, a new poll finds.
The American University poll, shared first with POLITICO, reveals a complicated portrait of how voters view women in politics. A majority supports electing more women to office, yet female politicians face persistent headwinds over trust on key issues like national security. They also run up against double standards, with voters saying a female president must be both “tough” and “likable.”
Nonetheless, most voters support electing more women and believe the government gets more done with women in office, according to the national poll of 801 registered voters conducted last month. It was commissioned by the university’s Women and Politics Institute and had a 3.5-point margin of error.
Nearly one in five voters said they or someone they are close to would not elect a woman presidential candidate. That includes one-quarter of women under 50 and 20 percent of men under 50, who said they would not back a qualified female candidate for president, while 13 percent of men and women over 50 said they wouldn’t be open to supporting a woman for president.
“This survey reveals a powerful paradox,” said Viva de Vicq, the survey's lead pollster. “Voters trust women on the issues that matter most and want to see more women in office. Yet when asked about the presidency, bias and narrow expectations resurface.”
The survey comes nearly one year after Kamala Harris lost the presidential race, raising questions about female electability in a country that has only chosen men for the White House.
Voters are divided over how the former vice president’s candidacy impacted future female contenders. More than 40 percent of independent voters believe Harris complicated others' paths — pessimism that pervaded much of the upper echelons of Democratic politics after the election, when Harris lost to Trump by wider margins than Hillary Clinton did eight years prior.
Reflecting on the 2024 election, the poll found that only one-third of voters listen to “bro culture” podcasts. Of those who do, four in five believe those podcasts affected the election. Half of those surveyed said former President Joe Biden hurt the Democratic Party.
The poll said voters trust female politicians more than men to advance women’s equality, abortion and childcare. But more voters trust men than women to handle global conflicts. The “‘old boys club’ culture in politics” was cited as the biggest deterrent for women running for office, closely followed by negative media portrayal.
Of the 2025 landscape, women surveyed are generally more pessimistic about the economy than they were in 2024. Women under 50 are particularly feeling the pinch with a 15-point jump in negative views of the economy.
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Democrats are entering the government shutdown blaming their rivals for rising health care costs. Republicans are countering by leaning into culture wars and attacking Democrats for pausing paychecks.
The partisan salvos crescendoed into Wednesday as each side prepared to answer for shutting down federal government operations after reaching a stalemate over a short-term funding patch.
Democratic and Republican leaders accused each other of operating in bad faith. The parties’ major campaign arms readied a barrage of attacks to hit airwaves and social media feeds across battlegrounds. And congressional candidates rushed to pin blame on the opposition — all moves that portend the battles to come next year when they tangle for control of the House.
Democrats believe they’re starting off the shutdown with the upper hand, pointing to polling that shows they have an advantage with voters concerned about health care. A stringof surveys, including a Morning Consult poll shared first with POLITICO, reveal more voters are poised to blame Republicans than Democrats for the funding lapse — though swaths of Americans say both parties share responsibility. Independents across those surveys more readily point fingers at the GOP governing trifecta.
“Democrats have an advantage: It's a persuasive issue, it's a trust issue. And people care about it,” Brad Woodhouse, who runs a progressive health care group advising members of Congress, said of health care costs.
But Republicans aren’t ceding any ground as they, too, gear up for a shutdown-era feud.
The GOP already sees cracks forming across the aisle, prompting its Housecampaign arm to launch a digital ad across 42 competitive districts slamming Democrats over delayed paychecks for military members and other federal workers and accusing the party of “grinding America to a halt” to give undocumented immigrants “free health care.” The party's Senate campaign committee is yoking Democratic candidates in key races to what they’re referring to as Senate Minority Leader Chuck “Schumer’s shutdown.”
“If you want to talk about how to hold down people's health care premiums I’m all for that. If you want to talk about how to protect rural hospitals, I'm here for that. But I don't understand what shutting down the government has to do with that. I don't get why the two things are linked,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said.
He was echoing Republicans who have blasted Democrats for attaching health care negotiations to government funding, accusing them of holding the federal workforce “hostage” over an issue Senate Majority Leader John Thune and several rank-and-file GOP senators said they were willing to engage in separate talks on. The Congressional Budget Office estimated Tuesday that roughly 750,000 employees could be furloughed each day of the shutdown.
“The people who will be hurt the most are the people that they say they want to help. It’s going to be working people,” Hawley added. “I just think that's kind of crazy."
Congressional Democrats’ refusal to support a stopgap funding measure without extending expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies marks a stark role reversal for the normally risk-averse party that typically abhors government shutdowns. And it represents a strategy shift for Schumer, who infuriated fellow Democrats when he sided with Republicans during the last funding fight in March.
Now his party is confident it’s returning to what’s historically been one of its winning issues by emphasizing health care. Democrats are armed with polling that shows opposition to the health care cuts in Republicans’ megalaw and are backed by the same advocacy groups that railed against Schumer after his spring shutdown cave. They’re also supported by surveys that show broad support for extending the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire by year’s end.
Democrats have discussed framing their message around health care for months, seizing on the expiring subsidies as another opportunity to hammer Republicans over rising costs and to freshen their attacks against the megalaw passed in July. The party’s House and Senate campaign arms began running digital ads ahead of the shutdown, accusing vulnerable Republican lawmakers of voting to raise health care costs and “standing in the way of affordable health care — on purpose.”
House Majority Forward is continuing its $3 million ad campaign targeting 10 vulnerable Republicans over tariffs and the shutdown until at least the end of next week, according to the group.
The minority party's bullishness is owed to millions of Americans likely being hit with higher health care premiums, should subsidies expire at year’s end without congressional action — another strain on the health care system on top of looming Medicaid cuts that providers warn threaten access nationwide. Even President Donald Trump’s top pollster has cautioned those cuts could harm battleground Republicans in the midterms.
But there are some warning signs for Democrats.
In a New York Times/Siena survey released Tuesday, nearly two-thirds of voters, including 59 percent of independents, said Democrats should not shut down the government if their demands are not met — a stat Thune’s aides and Republican campaign arms circulated online in the hours leading up to the shutdown.
And some Democrats are breaking rank: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), one of the three members of the Democratic caucus who voted with Republicans on Tuesday, had cautioned his colleagues ahead of the vote that Democrats “run the risk of not getting any of those kinds of changes to health care” if the government shuts down.
“There’s no such thing as a totally risk-less strategy,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said in a brief interview Monday night. “But this strategy is the right one. It's the right thing to do morally, ethically and legally."
Republicans — sensing they’ll be vulnerable on an issue central to many voters determining the makeup of the House next year — are trying to redirect attention to a culture war fight, arguing Democrats are shutting down the government to fund free health care for undocumented immigrants and suggesting Schumer is acting out of self interest to avoid a primary challenge in 2028.
“Democrats are fighting for free health care for illegal aliens. And at the end of the day, that's not even what they're fighting for. What they're really fighting for is their left wing base that hates Donald Trump,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), whose push to defund President Barack Obama’s signature health care law in 2013 propelled a shutdown, told reporters at the Capitol Tuesday night.
Trump amplified Republicans’ immigration message in a vulgar, artificial intelligence-generated video mocking Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries that he posted after a meeting Monday with congressional leaders from both parties.
Republicans are also highlighting the shutdown’s impacts — like cutting funding for Head Start programs — in Democratically controlled swing areas. The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched a digital ad Wednesday hitting Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, who voted against the plan to avert a government closure Tuesday, over how the shutdown will affect military families and veterans who may see delays in getting their paychecks and benefits. The NRSC also plans to blast out the ad to voters in a text campaign.
Ossoff is running for reelection in one of the Senate’s few tossup seats next year.
Georgia Democrats, however, are already blaming Trump for losing health care access. In Georgia and Virginia, several rural health care clinics recently announced closures explicitly tied to Medicaid changes under the megalaw officially called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. And if the Affordable Care Act tax credits expire, 750,000 people across the Peach State could lose access to health insurance by 2034, according to KFF.
Seth Clark, a Georgia Democrat and Macon mayor pro tempore, dismissed attacks on Ossoff as ineffective, saying he anticipates Georgians will blame the party in charge for the shutdown as they see government services shutter.
“I definitely don't think a 30-second spot with a scary voice is going to be the one who pins that tail on the donkey,” Clark said. “It's who called for negotiations and who walked away.”
Kamala Harris’ autopsy of the 2024 election is leaving storefronts at a historic rate.
Simon & Schuster, the book’s publisher, announced Monday that the former vice president’s book had sold 350,000 copies across the country in its first week on sale, putting it on track to be the year’s top-selling memoir. Just three celebrity memoirs — from Britney Spears, Taylor Swift and Prince Harry — have bested the week one total since 2023, the publisher said.
“In addition to being one of the most interesting books ever written about the experience of running for President of the United States, the success of 107 DAYS proves what a galvanizing and inspiring cultural figure Kamala Harris is,” Jonathan Karp, president and CEO of Simon & Schuster, said in a statement.
And the media blitz surrounding her book release, which has seen Harris attempt to walk back some of her criticism and refuse to rule out another presidential run, has only further alienated Democrats still sore over losing the White House to Trump in last year’s election.
But it was Harris’ criticism of former President Joe Biden, her boss in the White House, that drew the most attention. In her memoir, Harris wrote that the White House communications shop under Biden saddled her with unpopular policy priorities and amplified negative stories about her office. She wrote that in hindsight, refraining from pushing him to drop out of the presidential race earlier was reckless.
“It’s a good relationship and it’s a relationship that is based on mutual respect, having been in the trenches together, and admiration,” she said. “And it’s sincere.”
DES MOINES, Iowa — Rahm Emanuel, the longtime Washington operator and former mayor of Chicago, had a blunt confession this weekend. He’s tired of trying to fix a rigged system, and says he’s ready to rig it himself — for working Americans.
At a lively Democratic fish fry that capped a busy weekend in a state that’s historically been vital to presidential campaigns, Emanuel made his most public step yet toward testing a 2028 message.
The former White House chief of staff offered a message centered on economic fairness, education and affordability. “This should not come as a surprise to you,” Emanuel said from the stage set up at the home of Iowa state Rep. Sean Bagniewski, who hosted the fish fry in his front yard for 400 Democrats. “The American Dream is unaffordable. It's inaccessible, and we, as Democrats, that's unacceptable to us.”
In frank talk mixed with some humor, Emanuel more than once said, “Somebody needs to take a two-by-four upside Washington's head and swing at it.” The crowd ate it up.
Democrats are still trying to chart a path forward after Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump last year and the party is out of power. Emanuel’s weekend of informal campaigning and his populist message suggests he wants to see his party return to focusing on kitchen table issues that elevated his former bosses to the White House.
Iowa’s famously discerning electorate provides a proving ground few other early states can match. “The best test for somebody is to walk into a room and talk policy in front of 20 people who have their homework. That doesn’t happen in other places,” said Pete Giangreco, a Democratic consultant based in Chicago, where Emanuel got his political start.
“Rahm can speak from a lectern and one on one because he cuts right through the bullshit. It’s very authentic and real and I think Iowans appreciate that,” Giangrego said.
Emanuel avoided a polished stump speech and instead took questions from the crowd for nearly an hour, talking policy, telling stories of his years working for Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and making a few digs at Donald Trump.
The Q&A format was a strategic choice. It revealed that voters were less concerned with polarizing cultural issues and more focused on practical, everyday concerns — like tariffs, potential Medicaid cuts, education and, even, strategies to combat the spread of misinformation.
The crux of Emanuel’s message was about the American Dream needing fixing. “We used to strive to get into the middle class, now we just struggle to stay there, and we all know it,” he said. “We know it from our own kids.”
Emanuel offered a sobering generational comparison: “In 1950, 50 percent of the kids that were 30 years or younger were married and owned a home. … Today, it's 12 percent.” There was a murmur heard through the crowd.
If the economic message was the heart of his speech, education was its call to arms. “We are at a 30-year low in reading and math scores,” he warned. “Let me break the news to you: children do not hit a do-over. They get one shot.”
Emanuel took aim at Trump, criticizing a speech the president made earlier in the summer saying Democrats hate America.
“I’ve got two kids in the Navy. That's a funny way to show hate,” said Emanuel. “We may have disagreements, but the one thing we don't disagree about is America and why we're lucky to be here … Teddy Roosevelt defined the bully pulpit around the presidency, and President Trump is all bullying. No pulpit.”
Before his Q&A, Emanuel worked the crowd, talking to the small groups who gathered in Bagniewski’s living room or in the front yard.
Asked about a possible presidential run, Emanuel leaned over a table to tell one fish-fry guest, “I’m thinking about it and if I’ve got something to say and something to offer … then I’ll do it, and if I don’t, I won’t.”
The Iowa mystique
Though the Democratic Party dropped Iowa as its first primary state in the last presidential cycle, Iowans have kept their political fish fry tradition alive — and so have the politicians. Along with Emanuel appearing to test the White House waters, JB Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Ruben Gallego and Tim Walz have also visited the Hawkeye state.
Saturday’s fish fry and a dizzying number of events beforehand gave Iowans a glimpse of Emanuel as a retail politician.
He spent Saturday morning meeting with labor leaders before visiting with the entrepreneurs behind a downtown business development incubator — a project that mirrors efforts he supported while mayor of Chicago. And on Friday, Emanuel sat down with teachers to talk about education before joining Bagniewski at the Ames vs. Roosevelt high school football game at Drake University, where he talked to parents and teens milling about watching the game.
“This is what we want in Iowa — anyone who’s running or thinking of running to come to Iowa. We want to make sure Democrats are giving Iowa the time of day. It’s grassroots. Kissing babies and coming to Friday night football games really matters,” said Iowa state Sen. Izaah Knox, who also coaches football for Roosevelt.
Tom O'Donnell, a longtime science writer who attended the fish fry with his wife, Paula Mohr, said Emanuel “is reaching for a populist message and I think that’s what Democrats need to do.”
And Iowa state Rep. Rob Johnson, who’s originally from Chicago’s South Side, praised Emanuel for not “shying away” from difficult subjects. “Chicagoans know how to shake a hand and throw a punch at the same time. And in this type of space, you need somebody who you feel is going to tell you the truth even if you don’t like it.”
Attendance at Saturday’s fish fry was more than double its usual turnout. The fresh-caught fish battered in a special recipe from Bagniewski’s parents is always a big draw. Though this year, the Iowa Democrat said it was the headliner that mattered.
“The party’s in a weird place right now nationally and statewide, and I think people really want a fighter on our side. And nobody is more aggressive in the Democratic Party than Rahm Emanuel,” said Bagniewski, who invited Emanuel to the event.
Bagniewski’s home is in Des Moines’ Beaverdale neighborhood, where Obama spoke during his reelection campaign. Residents were so taken by the visit that the neighborhood was nicknamed “Obamadale.”
For Emanuel, known as a sharp-elbowed political operator, the fish fry allows him to road test whether he can translate his insider savvy into genuine connection with everyday voters.
"I'm in the listening mode. Leaders are gonna lift the lid and check the oil and see if the spark plugs are working, which is what they should do," he said in an interview before the fish fry.
More recently, Emanuel is known for breaking down politics as a national political commentator on TV. He pulls from his long resume: along with serving two terms as mayor, he had a stint as ambassador to Japan, was chief of staff to Obama and worked in City Hall.
“Rahm has unparalleled experience at every level of government and really keen insights. But these kinds of trips, done right, should be as much about listening and learning as speaking. It's a chance to let people become more familiar with him but, as important, for him to become familiar with them,” said David Axelrod, who lives in Chicago and worked with him in the Obama administration.
“No matter how good or smart you are, you are going to be tested and stretched by these encounters,” Axelrod said. “If he wants to run for president, or even just hone his ideas, trips like these are essential.”
It's unclear what place Iowa will have in any newly configured nominating calendar, but Iowa is still a state with important midterm races.
“Whether it's fish fries or steak fries, there's no better way to get media attention than going to Iowa or New Hampshire. It doesn't really matter that the calendar is in doubt. It’s more about the symbolic and historical importance of the state,” said Cook Political Report’s Election Analyst David Wasserman.
Bagniewski, the former chair of the Polk County Democrats, hopes Emanuel’s message — and the fish fry’s huge turnout — is a signal to higher-ups in the Democratic Party that it’s time to return the first primary to Iowa.
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting regularly through the spring to decide the primary calendar and whether to restore Iowa’s coveted first-in-the-nation status.
“I’m of the mind that we should do it anyway,” said Bagniewski.
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