Texas Democrats have wandered in the wilderness for decades. They hope a seminarian-turned-politician will finally lead them out.

Now that Republicans have nominated Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, Democrats see November as their best opportunity this century to flip Texas blue. They have a favorable political environment, aided by nationwide dissatisfaction with the economy and President Donald Trump’s leadership. They see the Texas GOP fractured after a messy Senate primary that took out Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), one of the party’s senior statesmen, and a potentially fatally flawed candidate in Paxton with his significant personal baggage.

They think their nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, is the ideal candidate to break through.

“Democrats have been in the desert for three decades,” said Mark McKinnon, a longtime GOP strategist and adviser to former President George W. Bush. “Talarico could be Moses.”

Cliff Walker, a Texas Democratic strategist and principal at Seeker Strategies, echoed the sentiment: “Folks are pretty damn bullish. I think this is the year.”

The pieces are all aligning, Democratic strategists, lawmakers and activists argue: Talarico is a charismatic candidate who has fundraising prowess and boasts a lead in early head-to-head polling.

Still, it’s a target that has long eluded Democrats in one of America’s most conservative, and costliest, battlegrounds. In election cycle after cycle, they’ve raised their hopes and poured money into trying to flip a statewide seat blue. Try as they might, Texas Democrats haven’t elected one of their own to the Senate since 1988.

Paxton won’t make it easy. The Texas attorney general, who defeated Cornyn by a wide margin in Tuesday’s runoff, emerged from the most expensive Senate primary on record with his eyes trained on November. After securing Trump’s endorsement last week, Paxton announced he’d remove all ads attacking Cornyn from the airwaves and instead focus his gaze on Talarico, who he calls a “leftist lunatic” and “Talafreako.”

“My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated,” Paxton said in his victory speech Tuesday. “No matter what he says or how much he raises, the reality is that James Talarico is going to be nothing more than a Texas-based puppet for Chuck Schumer and the national Democrats.”

Texas Democrats have been bullish before. In 2014, former state Sen. Wendy Davis elicited hopes of flipping the governor’s mansion, but her campaign spent $36 million only to lose to then-Attorney General Greg Abbott by a whopping 20 points.

In 2018, national Democrats were hesitant to back former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s challenge to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. O’Rourke eventually caught fire in the race’s final months, smashing fundraising records and running neck-and-neck in the polls, before losing by less than three percentage points — and leaving national Democrats wondering what could’ve happened if they jumped in sooner.

In 2020, Cornyn defeated Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by nearly 10 points; in 2024, Cruz toppled former Rep. Colin Allred by eight.

This cycle could be different, Texas Democrats say. Talarico is polling and fundraising ahead of where O’Rourke was at this point in 2018. And Talarico benefits from a Democratic political operation in the state — much of it built by O’Rourke — that was nonexistent when his predecessor ran.

“It’s the best chance Texas Democrats will have to win a statewide race in the entirety of my career,” said Democratic strategist Jeff Rotkoff, who has advised campaigns in Texas for 25 years.

The national headwinds facing Republicans — as voters’ patience for the Iran war and its effect on energy prices has eroded — are blowing especially hard in Texas, said Matt Angle, founder of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic-aligned group.

“At the voter level, what you've got is just an overwhelming dissatisfaction with Republicans in a way that you just haven't seen in Texas in the past,” Angle said.

Some point to Texas’ 9th Senate District as evidence, which Trump won by 17 points in 2024 and a Democrat flipped in January. When the Democratic-aligned Texas Majority PAC surveyed voters there, they found that 90 percent of Republican-leaning voters who backed the Democrat in the race said they did it because “they just would not support any MAGA candidate,” said Katherine Fischer, the group’s director.

“It was tough for us last cycle to run in an environment where our president was deeply unpopular,” Fischer said. “Now it's on them.”

Democrats believe Cornyn’s closing argument: That Paxton and his long trail of controversies will create a drag on the Republican ticket.

"Ken Paxton will be an albatross,” Cornyn said during a Fox News appearance Tuesday. “He could well lose, but even if he doesn't lose, he will win by such a razor-thin margin that it's likely to have a negative drag on the down ballot races in Texas."

It’s a message that has some national Republicans wringing their hands. “The national mood is not great for Republicans right now, and Texas feels even worse,” said one Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn, granted anonymity to speak openly. “We already know we’re heading into a headwind in the state, up and down the ticket, and we just put up the worst possible top-of-the-ticket person.

“I can’t think of a worse person to put on the top of the ticket than Ken Paxton,” he added. “It’s laughable. All I can do is laugh.”

Still, it may be Paxton who gets the last laugh. Although his impeachment, the securities fraud investigation and ethics complaints against him, and his ongoing divorce were played up in the many attack ads Cornyn ran, the attorney general still managed to garner support from a large majority of GOP runoff voters.

“I think Talarico is the only opponent Paxton can beat,” said Tim Edson, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s former political director. “Democrats are going to wish they had Beto again. ... Talarico is a Marxist creep who will make Paxton seem normal after this race is litigated.”

The NRSC backed Cornyn in the primary. In a post-election statement the group blasted Talarico, but didn’t mention Paxton.

"A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” said NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell. “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”

Paxton is already laser-focused on attacking Talarico as too progressive: A Paxton-aligned super PAC spent the past week running an ad that labeled Talarico as “weird,” clipping the state representative’s statements on gender, race, meat consumption and patriotism.

Those culture war issues are seen as Talarico’s largest liability as he seeks to win over a wide umbrella of progressive and moderate Democrats, independents and Republicans dissatisfied with Trump. Talarico has claimed there are “more than two” biological sexes and said he’s had to “reckon” with his own whiteness and masculinity.

Some of his allies want him to avoid those issues altogether.

“Stay away from it,” said state Sen. Royce West, a Democrat who represents Dallas. “I'm pretty sure he'll have a strategy to do that, but he's got to be able to get centrists.”

The same goes for downballot Democrats, who may be hoping to ride the energy of Talarico’s campaign to victory in their own races. The stakes are high: Future control of Congress could run through the Lone Star State, as the post-2030 Census reapportionment is poised to gift additional House seats to Texas while kneebuckling the map for Democrats nationwide. With newly redrawn House maps that favor Republicans and not another U.S. Senate race in the state until 2030, now is the ideal moment for Texas Democrats to notch victories up and down the ballot and send a message that they can play in the state.

“There's just a ton of evidence to suggest that this is a much more favorable cycle than anything we've seen in Texas in the last 30 years. Is it enough to win in November? I don't know,” said Fischer. “If it's possible to win in Texas, all of the things are there for us to do it.”

© Brenda Bazán/AP Photo

Former Rep. Colin Allred defeated Rep. Julie Johnson in a runoff that pitted two of the Democratic Party’s rising stars against each other in Texas’ newly redrawn 33rd District.

Allred’s victory Tuesday means he’s all but certain to win the general election in the deep-blue Dallas-area district.

Both candidates boasted substantial bios: Johnson became the first openly LGBTQ+ representative elected in a southern state last year, and Allred is an ex-NFL player, a three-term representative and a two-time U.S. Senate candidate.

When the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature passed a new congressional gerrymander last year, Allred decided to drop his Senate bid and take another shot at the House, setting up a race against a sitting member who had replaced him in Congress. The two have represented about one third of the newly drawn district.

The race turned intoa proxy fight of March's Senate primary: Democratic nominee and state Rep. James Talarico endorsed Johnson, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett endorsed Allred and rallied with him last week.

Allred ran for Senate in 2024 instead of running for reelection for the House, eventually losing to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). He ran for Senate again in 2026 before dropping out and running for the 33rd District.

He attempted to make the race a referendum on corruption in politics, attacking Johnson’s stock trading and donations from corporate PACs. Allred also benefitted from a significant name ID advantage, winning the March primary by double digits and earning the endorsements of the two other primary candidates who failed to make the runoff.

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© Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Texas Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee defeated longtime Rep. Al Green in a runoff that was defined by heavy outside spending and clashes over generational change.

The Tuesday result will likely end the long career of Green, a 78-year-old civil rights champion who was running for a 12th term in Washington. He entered the race in the newly drawn Houston-area 18th District after his own district was carved up in redistricting.

Menefee, a 38-year-old Harris County attorney and fellow member of the Congressional Black Caucus, was sworn into Congress earlier this year after winning a special election in January to serve out the remainder of the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s term. He is expected to cruise to victory in November in the safely Democratic Houston district.

The race was also the latest sign of the power of the crypto lobby’s influence. A cryptocurrency super PAC poured $4 million into the race to back Menefee, turning the incumbent-on-incumbent showdown into the most expensive House runoff in Texas this cycle.

In the end, Green, an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, couldn’t overcome the cash disadvantage despite his name recognition.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

President Donald Trump's trade war has driven Canadians from Las Vegas. Democrats think it will help them protect their Nevada battleground seats in November.

Last year, as Trump levied tariffs on Canada, visits from Canadians — who account for up to half of Las Vegas’ foreign tourism — dropped off by 17 percent. That played a large role in a 7.5 percent year-over-year decline in total tourist visits, making 2025 the worst non-pandemic year for Las Vegas since the city started tracking data in 1970. Now, as peak tourism season arrives in a battleground state where Republicans’ control of the House could be won or lost, Democrats are pushing voters to see the tourism slump as a direct impact of Trump’s levies.

“Trump instituted his reckless tariffs. In response, Canadians have literally boycotted traveling to America,” said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), whose Las Vegas-area seat is Republicans’ top target in the state. “That has had a significant impact on our tourism.”

Trump narrowly carried Lee’s district in 2024 and nearly won two other Vegas-area districts held by Democrats. Republicans are less bullish than they were a year ago about flipping the seats, but they view Lee's as their best chance.

The races are a rare example of the international politics of tariffs — beyond their direct economic impact — playing a major role in an election. Unlike the upper Midwest or the Great Plains, Nevada doesn’t have a large manufacturing or agricultural sector jolted by the tariffs. Instead, the product most affected is the state’s Canadian visitors — who, on any given year, make up between 25 and 50 percent of Las Vegas’ foreign tourism market.

Spokespeople for the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee criticized Nevada’s Democratic congresspeople for voting against last year’s reconciliation bill, which included a “no tax on tips” provision. “If they actually cared about affordability, they wouldn’t have spent years making Nevada harder and more expensive to live in,” NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez said.

Kush Desai, spokesperson for the White House, noted the “vast majority of Las Vegas tourists are Americans,” adding that the Trump administration “is focused on unleashing the historic job, wage, and economic growth that the American people experienced during President Trump’s first term with the President’s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance.”

Many Canadians, incensed by Trump’s tariffs and his “51st state” taunts, have boycotted U.S. products and tourist destinations in retaliation. It coincides with an overall dropoff in Canadians’ view of their southern neighbor: According to a POLITICO Poll in February, a majority of Canadians now think the U.S. is an unreliable ally.

Even some Nevada Republicans acknowledge the problem. “The Canadians aren't coming the way they were. Wonder why that is, huh?” Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.), who isn’t running for reelection in his northern Nevada seat, said with a chuckle. “The communications for the tariff stuff was suboptimal.”

The dropoff in Canadian visitors played a role in stagnating a Las Vegas hospitality sector reliant on wealthy international visitors spending in the city’s casinos and hotels. A string of Las Vegas restaurants closed in recent months, some citing a downturn in visitors. And while employment has increased recently in the entertainment and recreation sectors, hiring in food and accommodation has been stagnant, according to Andrew Woods, an economist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The decline has been severe enough that local industry is taking dramatic steps to try to lure back lost business amidst an ongoing boycott from Canada. A group of Las Vegas resorts is offering to treat Canadian dollars at par with U.S. dollars, effectively a 30 percent discount, and hosting free concerts featuring Canadian artists. And the city’s tourism office recently launched a $3.5 million marketing campaign targeting Canadian visitors.

But it’s hard to overcome national patriotic fury with an ad campaign.

“Despite the efforts of our major operators in Las Vegas, the headwinds are coming from these external forces and the policies of this administration, and that's what's creating the economic uncertainty that we're facing right now in Las Vegas,” said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), whose district Trump lost by less than 3 points.

Overall tourist visits ticked up in February and March from those months the year earlier, offering a silver lining to the service industry. But the previous year of declining numbers created a deep hole to dig out of, said Ted Pappageorge, secretary/treasurer of the state’s powerful Culinary Union, which represents 60,000 cooks, roomkeepers and other hospitality workers in the state. If the low numbers continue, the union — which endorsed Democrats in all four of Nevada’s congressional races — is considering putting together relief efforts for its struggling members like it did during Covid, which included food, utility and rent assistance.

“If there's anything like the reduction in visitation that happened last year, if that happens this year, then we'll be in relief effort territory for our members,” said Pappageorge, noting “thousands and thousands of hours” have been cut for his union’s members this year due to reductions and restaurant closures.

Marty O’Donnell — the GOP front-runner to face Lee, who has the backing of Trump and the NRCC — was once skeptical of tariffs, but now says he “fully support(s)” the president’s trade policy.

“I'm now a convert, because what I see Donald Trump doing with tariffs is not something I ever anticipated,” O’Donnell said in an interview. “He uses it as a negotiating tool in a way that I never anticipated, and I actually love what he's doing.”

O’Donnell said tariffs aren’t at the top of voters’ list of concerns. “I don't hear anybody complaining about tariffs,” he said. “I just don't think it's an issue. I think there are way, way more important issues.”

One Nevada Republican strategist assisting multiple campaigns this cycle, granted anonymity to speak candidly about GOP strategy, admitted that Canadians were upset by Trump’s threats to make the country the “51st state” last year. But he and other Republicans pointed to an uptick in visitors in February and March. The strategist also noted the fact that Nevada added jobs at a faster rate than any other state in April, even though it has the nation’s third-highest unemployment rate. Those recent economic wins take the air out of Democrats’ attack, the strategist said.

“There are some bright spots,” O’Donnell senior adviser Keith Schipper said. “We're talking about tariffs less so now than even six months, eight months ago.”

Republicans also point to the popularity of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who they hope can win reelection in a tough environment and pull down-ballot candidates over the finish line. In a February poll, he was still viewed positively by a majority of Nevada voters even as Trump’s job approval dipped to 41 percent.

Not all economic indicators are dire, said Woods, the UNLV economist. The high-end hospitality sector is doing well, and an uptick in convention and business travelers has more than replaced the loss of Canadian tourists in numbers. “Canadian visitors, though, tend to stay longer and make Vegas their prime destination compared to other international tourists, which is good for our economy,” he said.

The local tourism drop lands on top of other economic concerns that are impacting everyone. A new CNN/SSRS poll conducted in late April and early May found that 77 percent of U.S. voters say Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. And a surge in energy prices driven by the war in Iran led to inflation reaching its highest point in three years.

But Las Vegas is still an industry town. And with the main industry suffering, Democrats are banking on their races going their way.

“There's a lot of service industry folks here, and so those folks are in the social circles in town,” said John Oceguera, the former Democratic speaker of the Nevada Assembly. “Whether you're at a little league baseball game or a school event or whatnot, people are talking about that.”

© John Locher/AP

John Curtis arrived in the Senate just 16 months ago. He’s already eyeing a possible move back home.

The Utah Republican’s inner circle is actively canvassing donors and allies in Utah to gauge support for a gubernatorial bid in 2028, according to six people involved with or briefed on the discussions. They were granted anonymity to detail private conversations. His allies have asked donors in recent months to hold off on supporting other gubernatorial candidates until Curtis makes up his mind. And his chief of staff has said his boss is keeping the door open.

“John Curtis is going to serve where the people of Utah want him to serve,” Corey Norman, Curtis’ chief of staff, told POLITICO.

Curtis, who replaced former Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) last year, has a reputation as a pragmatic dealmaker and moderate voice from his three terms in the U.S. House. But after seeing Washington grow increasingly polarized during his decade there, the former mayor and business executive may see the benefits of returning home.

“He doesn’t love being in the Senate,” said a Utah Republican operative who has discussed Curtis’ political future with him. “Trump’s MAGA base sees him as one of the four squishiest Republicans. He’s basically Mitt without the stature.”

The timing of Curtis’ exploration is tethered to former GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is quietly attempting to clear the 2028 gubernatorial field for himself since Utah Gov. Spencer Cox announced he wouldn’t seek a third term.

A potential Chaffetz-Curtis primary in 2028 would likely mirror the Republican Party’s own ideological battles as it enters its first presidential election without Trump on the ballot in over a decade. Chaffetz is one of the Trump administration's staunchest defenders on Fox News; Curtis is a self-described “Reagan Republican” and occasional Trump critic more in the mold of his predecessor, Romney.

Earlier this year, as Chaffetz began asking Utah donors and elected officials to back him, Curtis received an influx of inquiries about a run of his own, according to two people close to the senator, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. Curtis first rebuffed the proddings; now, he is actively exploring it.

“The first time I asked John about this, and the third and fourth and fifth time, his answer was, ‘Have I said hell no lately?’” said one longtime friend. “And now his response has changed dramatically.”

Just in the last few weeks, the friend said, “there has been a very meaningful change in his thinking.”

The ad-hoc team of advisers, friends and longtime allies that are now canvassing donors have a goal of securing $10 million in pledges. Curtis’ current outlook, a second longtime friend said, is, “If there’s a pathway forward and I felt like it was clear to me that citizens wanted me to do it, then I would do it.”

Curtis, an avid outdoorsman and practicing Latter-day Saint, went on a retreat in the mountains recently to pray and meditate about running, according to the first longtime friend. Now Curtis is planning a 250-mile solo walk across the state to honor the U.S.’ 250th anniversary, concluding on July 4 in Provo, Utah, a second person close to the senator said. The walk will give Curtis additional time to meditate on his political future.

Meanwhile, Chaffetz, who Curtis replaced in the U.S. House when the former left Congress for a gig on Fox News, is holding regular meetings with local lawmakers and donors across the state to ask for their support, and he’s begun transferring funds from a federal PAC to a state PAC.

“His pitch is that he is the likely nominee and he invites them to get in early while they still can,” said a second longtime Utah GOP operative who hasn’t chosen sides in the potential primary, granted anonymity to discuss the topic openly. “You can tell from his finance disclosures that he has had limited success on that front.” Chaffetz did not respond to a request for comment.

Keeping the door open now may be an attempt to avoid repeating past mistakes: Curtis initially vowed he wouldn’t run for Romney’s seat, but he changed his mind and made a late entry into the 2024 GOP primary field after being urged to run by Utah donors, politicos and Romney allies. It was a tough fight, as former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and others had already locked up supporters across the state. But Curtis rallied and garnered over 50 percent of the vote in a crowded primary.

“He’s not going to cede early ground to Chaffetz like he did to Wilson in the Senate race,” the second Utah GOP political operative said. “It’s now to the point where I would be surprised if Curtis doesn’t run.”

Curtis entered the Senate in 2025 amid much fanfare among Trump-skeptical Republicans who hoped he would fill the role of his predecessor, Romney, as a frequent critic of and check on the president. Curtis had earned a reputation during his time in the House as a China hawk and a rare Republican voice supporting conservation, as founder of the House’s Conservative Climate Caucus. He was one of the most effective House members, passing 27 bills during his three terms.

But the Senate has proved to be a difficult place for a consensus-minded pragmatist like Curtis. He failed to get a seat on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee which his fellow Utahn, Sen. Mike Lee, chairs. Though he bucked the Trump administration on several occasions — he was credited with torpedoing several Trump nominees, and he fought to protect clean energy tax credits in the One Beautiful Bill Act — he voted in line with Trump 100% of the time in 2025, per VoteHub’s tally. (He eventually relented and voted for the reconciliation package — with a gradual rollback of some credits included.)

Curtis often tells allies his favorite job was as mayor of Provo, Utah, where he could enact change as the city’s nonpartisan chief executive, according to two other people close to the senator.

Norman, the senator’s longtime chief of staff, has made the rounds on local media hinting that his boss is open to a run for governor. During an appearance on KSL NewsRadio on April 9, he said his boss “hasn’t said yes, he hasn’t said no.” During an interview with ABC4 that aired Sunday, Norman was more blunt: “He is an executive problem solver at heart, and in my opinion, he would make an exceptional governor.”

Curtis could retain his seat in the U.S. Senate while running for governor. If he wins, he would select his successor from three options provided by the state legislature.

There is a growing contingent of Utah politicos who want him in the governor’s mansion.

“Chaffetz is the only one out there right now and folks are looking for an alternative that has the ability to beat him,” said a third Utah GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak openly. “It just sucks that he’s forcing the field to start so early. A two-plus year run for governor is absurd.”

Curtis’ openness about the possibility of a gubernatorial run — a full two-and-a-half years before November 2028 — is rankling some allies. The topic arose at a wedding for Romney’s grandson last week, where Romney’s allies and former staffers mingled. They acknowledged Curtis would make a good governor but wanted to see him finish out his term in the Senate, according to one individual present, granted anonymity to discuss a private conversation. 



But all were frustrated by Curtis’ team signaling at his intentions this early in the cycle. “It’s pretty early to leak it all out,” the person said. “Way too early.”

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

Tennessee’s Republican-controlled legislature approved a new congressional map Thursday that dismantles the state’s majority-Black district and will likely secure them an all-GOP federal delegation.

The redraw comes as Republican-led Southern states scramble to enact new maps in the wake of last week’s Supreme Court ruling that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and opened the door to states blowing up blue districts drawn to protect the voting power of racial minorities.

The new map aims to draw the state’s lone Democratic congressional representative — Rep. Steve Cohen — out of his Memphis-area seat by splitting up majority-Black Shelby County. It also divides Maury County, likely delivering a more favorable district to Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list.

“The Supreme Court has opined that redistricting, like the judicial system, should be color-blind,” said Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton in a social media post. “The decision indicated states can redistrict based off partisan politics.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, is expected to sign the map into law imminently. He called the legislature into a special session last week to pass the map.

“We owe it to Tennesseans to ensure our congressional districts accurately reflect the will of Tennessee voters,” Lee said in a statement Friday. “After consultation with the Lt. Governor, Speaker of the House, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, I believe the General Assembly has a responsibility to review the map and ensure it remains fair, legal, and defensible.”

Tennessee is the first state to finalize a new congressional map after last week’s Supreme Court decision. Louisiana’s GOP-controlled legislature is expected to unveil a new map as soon as this week, and Republicans in South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama are pushing to do the same.

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

© Mark Zaleski/AP Photo

Tennessee Republicans on Wednesday unveiled a proposed congressional map that slices into the state’s majority-Black district and will likely secure them an all-GOP federal delegation.

The redraw comes as Republican-led Southern states scramble to enact new maps in the wake of last week’s Supreme Court ruling that weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and opened the door to states blowing up blue districts drawn to protect the voting power of racial minorities.

Tennessee’s new map aims to draw the state’s lone Democratic congressional representative — Rep. Steve Cohen — out of his Memphis-area seat by splitting up majority-Black Shelby County. It also divides Maury County, likely delivering a more favorable district to Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who is onthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list.

The plan is supported by Republican leadership in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly and is expected to pass Thursday.

“The Supreme Court has opined that redistricting, like the judicial system, should be color-blind,” said Tenesseee House Speaker Cameron Sexton in a social media post. “The decision indicated states can redistrict based off partisan politics. Today, Tennessee joins other red and blue states in redrawing their congressional maps.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, called the state assembly into a special session on Friday following the Supreme Court ruling. The assembly adopted a set of rules limiting public comment in an attempt to expedite the new map.

“House Republicans remain well-positioned to re-elect our incumbents, compete aggressively across the map, and grow the majority in November,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson said in a statement.

Andrew Howard contributed reporting.

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© Jon Cherry/Getty Images

DALLAS — Friendship-West Baptist Church is a stronghold for Black politics, where candidates pass through cycle after cycle to win over its 13,000 congregants. It’s the church Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) calls home; her pastor, the Rev. Dr. Frederick D. Haynes III, is now running to succeed her in Congress. Even Beto O’Rourke visited last week to encourage people to register to vote.

But several congregants can’t help but notice a continued absence this year: James Talarico.

The Democratic Senate nominee has a long road ahead if he wants to flip the Texas seat blue — one that requires winning over the state’s nearly 3 million Black voters, who largely broke for Crockett in the March primary and many of whom remain skeptical of his candidacy.

“Come and make the ask. Come and try to earn the vote,” said Alan Williams, a Crockett voter and Friendship-West congregant. “I think he thinks our vote is just a default and he doesn't have to earn it.”

In the month-and-a-half since he won the nomination, Talarico has begun criss-crossing Texas, including visiting some Black churches, holding meetings with faith leaders and elected officials, and block-walking in majority-Black cities. But frustration from worshippers at Friendship-West — who have yet to hear from him directly — and interviews with Black power brokers across the state reveal the pressure Talarico faces to move faster to heal open wounds from a contentious primary and convince voters to turn out.

David Malcolm McGruder, the church’s executive pastor, said Talarico has to do more to sell his vision to voters — and convince them he’ll follow through: “We have people who show up in our churches during the election season, but who don't show up for us at the level of policy beyond November.”

Talarico, in an interview, acknowledged that he would “love” to visit Friendship-West soon. “My top priority is bringing our coalition back together, and that is specifically reaching out to Black Texans,” he said. “There's no way to win Texas without winning the trust and the support of Black voters. Period. Full stop.”

It’s clear that Talarico has his work cut out for him. He wasn’t Black voters' preferred candidate. Some are exhausted by a messy primary that thrust questions over race and electability into the center of the contest. And while Black voters are overwhelmingly committed Democrats, he needs to keep enthusiasm high to ensure they turn out, especially as concerns over voter suppression grow. (A last-minute rule change in Dallas County, Crockett’s home base, caused thousands of people to be turned away from the polls or have their ballots invalidated on primary Election Day.)

Democrats have long faced accusations that they take Black voters for granted. Several Texas strategists are worried that’ll happen again in the lead up to November — and that the party will blame Black voters if Talarico loses.

“Black voters have been let down over time,” said Antjuan Seawright, a longtime Democratic strategist who has advised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “What some may not understand is that our vote, more so than any other constituency in the history of this country, has always been a demonstration of our trust, but our trust has either been taken for granted or has always been on the chopping block by a number of people.”

Talarico is already getting on-the-ground support from Democratic groups like O’Rourke’s Powered By People and a host of Black state lawmakers.

“We don't have time to remain in our feelings,” added Crystal Chism, president of the Dallas County chapter of Texas Coalition of Black Democrats. “We need to make the main thing the main thing, and that's getting Talarico elected.”

But there’s a notable ally missing: Even though Crockett quickly conceded the race and endorsed Talarico in March, she has yet to hit the campaign trail or put much effort publicly into rallying the base behind him. Crockett, through a spokesperson, declined an interview request for this story.

Talarico said he and Crockett have “exchanged a few messages” since the primary and he “would love nothing more” than to have her on the campaign trail.

“He’s got his work cut out for him,” noted Russell Maryland, the former No. 1 NFL draft pick who won three Super Bowls with the Dallas Cowboys and voted for Crockett in the primary. “He's gonna have to work to win over Jasmine's supporters. … Talarico will really need to put his fingers in the ground, so to speak in football terms, and kick up some dust.”

The seminarian is still trying to overcome some of the criticism leveled against him in the lead up to the primary.

In February, a PAC that supported Talarico ran a TV ad with the tagline, “If she wins, we lose.” Crockett claimed the ad darkened her skin and said it was bigoted. “It’s not even undertones right now,” she said. “It’s straight-up racist.” (Talarico, in an interview, emphasized that the PAC was not affiliated with his campaign and that he disagreed with its message. He added that he believes Crockett is electable statewide in Texas, as he has said before.)

Then a social media influencer claimed Talarico told her in a private conversation that former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who dropped out of the Senate race right before Crockett joined, was a “mediocre Black man.” Talarico has said that was a mischaracterization of his comments, and that he was describing Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre.

Allred, who is now in a competitive run-off to represent Texas’ 33rd district, said in an interview that he backs Talarico. “Of course I support him,” he said. “I support Democrats. I've been supporting Democrats here for my whole life.”

But Talarico’s challenge, Allred added, isn’t convincing Black voters to support him over the Republican nominee — it’s convincing them to turn out.

“He needs to show comfort in Black spaces and Black communities,” Allred said. “I’m sure he can do that, but there’s just no substitute for it. Particularly given how some of the ads that ran, there may be some element of having to show contrition, even if he wasn't responsible for all those.”

Talarico has visited Black churches almost every weekend since the primary, and he dropped by Prairie View A&M University, an HBCU, on Wednesday, where he acknowledged he has “got to earn the trust and the respect and the support of every single one of the congresswoman’s supporters.” He block-walked in majority-Black DeSoto, Texas and held a roundtable with Black community leaders in Austin recently. And last month, he convened African American clerics at Saint Luke Community United Methodist Church in Dallas for a discussion about policy.

“The Democratic Party has taken Black voters for granted and assumed that they're just part of the base, assumed they'll just show up and vote for you,” Talarico said in an interview. “And I think we've seen the disastrous results of that kind of disrespect toward Black voters.”

To his benefit, Talarico has an army of Texas Democrats anxious to flip the state for the first time in decades. Last Sunday, O’Rourke — whose three-point loss in 2018 to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz was Texas Democrats’ high-water mark this century — mingled with congregants at Friendship-West, while his organization’s yellow-vested volunteers encouraged them to check their voter registration.

“I love James Talarico,” O’Rourke said. “I'm excited for him. I’ve talked to him and said, ‘You can send me anywhere that the campaign can't get to. I will raise money for you. I'll go try to get your volunteers fired up. I’ll speak as a surrogate. You let me know.’”

State Sen. Royce West of Dallas, who voted for Crockett and has since endorsed Talarico, is also optimistic, if more measured: “He’s warming up. He has support within the African American community. Is it where it needs to be? No. Is he making strides? Yes.”

On the Republican side, longtime Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a lengthy and expensive run-off that could play to Democrats’ advantage. Talarico’s internal polling shows him competitiveagainst either candidate, but some observers think he has a stronger path against Paxton given his myriad controversies. Talarico boasts a cash advantage with almost $10 million cash on hand after the first quarter of the year, compared with Cornyn's more than $8 million and Paxton's $2.6 million.

“There's work to be done,” said Cliff Walker, a Texas Democratic strategist and principal at Seeker Strategies. “But I don't stay up at night worried that we're not going to be able to reassemble this coalition in time for November.”

© Bob Daemmrich/Texas Tribune

The GOP's escalating infighting over immigration now has a pair of PACs lining up millions of dollars on opposing sides of Republican primaries across the country.

The dueling pledges turn a congressional fight over Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar's (R-Fla.) Dignity Act into an electoral proxy war between hardliners and moderates over how far the Republican Party should go on immigration reform. It’s putting the bill's 20 House GOP co-sponsors in the spotlight.

The Homeland PAC, backed by immigration-restrictionist Republicans, launched last week in an effort to primary some of those co-sponsors. Meanwhile, American Business Immigration Coalition Action, a pro-immigration group, secured $1.2 million to protect them through its Building America’s Economy PAC and hopes to raise $5 million in total, according to plans first shared with POLITICO.

The Dignity Act, a bipartisan bill, has faced an onslaught of criticism from conservative MAGA influencers and allies of President Donald Trump, who view it as a nonstarter. While the bill doesn't create pathways to citizenship, it would allow millions of unauthorized immigrants to eventually gain work permits and remain in the U.S. legally.

Republicans like battleground Reps. Gabe Evans (Colo.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) have signed onto the bill. But critics pan it as “amnesty” and signal that the future of the Republican Party hinges on this debate.

“Donald Trump is not going to be around forever,” said Ryan Girdusky, the GOP strategist behind Homeland PAC. “The goal is to focus and to put our efforts into the future, and make sure Republicans know that the demand for stronger borders and for reforms to legal immigration and illegal immigration means something. We are not going to roll over and go back to business as usual.”

The clash is playing out as the White House recalibrates its own message on immigration amid plummeting public perception. The administration has shifted away from using the phrase “mass deportations” in public messaging and says it is focusing on deporting the “worst of the worst.”

“Extreme-right internet influencers have escalated their attacks, and we want to ensure the leadership on commonsense immigration reform are protected,” said Rebbeca Shi, CEO of ABIC Action, whose PAC is seeking to defend Republican co-sponsors of the Dignity Act.

Salazar has defended her bill, saying it offers workers “dignity.” But former Trump adviser Steve Bannon called it the “screw American workers” bill. Conservative pundit Megyn Kelly said the bill “is not going to go over well with the GOP base, with the America Firsters.” And conservative members of Congress, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), slammed the bill as a betrayal to Trump’s base.

Girdusky, whose Homeland PAC is dedicated to “ending the career of every Republican who supports amnesty and sells out the American people on immigration,” won’t reveal which specific lawmakers he’s targeting or how much money he plans to spend. Several of the Dignity Act’s cosponsors are retiring or represent competitive districts, but Girdusky said his group will focus on those in safe-red seats with primary challenges.

“If any of these members have a change of heart and say, ‘Wow, this is actually a terrible bill for American workers and for the border and enriches human traffickers, I'm going to drop my support of it,’ I'm not going to challenge them in a primary,” he said.

Several hardline immigration groups have jockeyed for influence with the Trump administration, hoping to convince the president to keep his promise to enact the largest deportation initiative in history. But leaning into such an approach risks turning off voters, many of whom disapprove of the president’s handling of immigration so far.

New results from The POLITICO Poll shows that Americans’ views of Trump’s deportation campaign remain broadly negative in the three months since its enforcement surge in Minneapolis. Half of Americans, including one quarter of Trump’s 2024 voters, said his deportation campaign is too aggressive.

Shi said her group will defend the Dignity Act’s cosponsors — both Republicans and Democrats — in primaries, as well as Republicans who voted to reinstate temporary protected status for Haitians last week. She believes signing off on a bipartisan immigration reform bill like the Dignity Act would be a smart political move for the White House ahead of the midterms.

“The White House is very sensitive to the polling on this, and the numbers haven’t changed since Minneapolis,” Shi said. “That’s why the next logical step to win in November is to actually have solutions.”

© Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo

A group of President Donald Trump’s MAGA allies released a playbook Wednesday to fulfill the largest deportation push in U.S. history. It could very well split Trump’s coalition.

The plan from the Mass Deportation Coalition — an organization led by some prominent Trumpworld veterans, immigration restrictionist groups and hawkish policy experts — rests on one crucial pillar: A major immigration enforcement crackdown on workplaces, modeling the strategy that former President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s administration used to deliver the nation’s largest deportation initiative in history.

“There is no chance for a mass deportation program if worksite enforcement is not the centerpiece,” the playbook, shared first with POLITICO, reads. “Enforcement at scale means focusing on physical areas where illegal aliens are concentrated: worksites.”

That strategy almost certainly promises to alienate some of the Trump administration’s allies in the agriculture, construction and hospitality industries, which all rely heavily on undocumented labor. Farm groups in particular hold significant sway in Trump’s Washington and have already shown prowess in steering the administration away from worksite enforcement when those efforts disrupted the industry.

Worksite raids could also prove deeply unpopular with voters, whose views have turned increasingly negative toward Trump on immigration and seemingly forced the administration to ramp down its deportation push.

The release of the group’s playbook — which also offers recommendations from digitizing the employment verification process to barring unauthorized immigrants from accessing credit — comes as the Trump administration enters a new stage of internal immigration enforcement.

In the months since an immigration surge in Minneapolis left two U.S. citizens dead, the administration pivoted its message on mass deportations while overhauling its leadership at the Department of Homeland Security. Border czar Tom Homan replaced Customs and Border Protection chief Greg Bovino in Minneapolis and drew down the immigration enforcement presence in the city; the president ousted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and tapped then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to replace her; and a POLITICO review of official administration social media accounts found that references to “mass deportations” sharply decreased in March.

In a statement, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson denied that the White House has shifted its deportation approach.

“Nobody is changing the Administration’s immigration enforcement agenda,” she said in a statement. “President Trump’s highest priority has always been the deportation of illegal alien criminals who endanger American communities. As the Department of Homeland Security has repeatedly said, approximately 70 percent of deportations to date have been illegal aliens with criminal records.”

Still, the Mass Deportation Coalition is trying to push the White House back toward a more aggressive immigration approach. Its members include Mark Morgan, the former acting commissioner of CBP under Trump; Erik Prince, a Trump ally and former Blackwater CEO who has pitched the White House on privatizing immigration detention operations; and a number of conservative organizations like the Heritage Foundation.

The group commissioned a poll last month by McLaughlin & Associates, one of Trump’s pollsters, that found a majority of likely U.S. voters support deporting all migrants who entered the country illegally. The poll also found that 70 percent of likely voters support “strengthening workplace immigration enforcement to help raise wages for American workers.”

However, those results differ drastically from other recent polling on immigration, like a January POLITICO poll amid the Minneapolis surge which found that nearly half of U.S. adults say Trump’s mass deportation campaign was too aggressive, including 1 in 5 of his 2024 voters.

“Special interests and industry have been able to operate in the shadows, and to lean on lawmakers and administration officials,” said Mike Howell, president of the Oversight Project and a member of the Mass Deportation Coalition. “We're taking that fight public, and we don't think that they're well situated to win that fight, because their arguments don't sell with the American people.”

The group’s stated goal of 1 million deportations in 2026 mirrors a private goal among White House officials, the Washington Post reported last year. It would mark a significant uptick in apprehensions: The Department of Homeland Security said it deported just over 600,000 individuals in 2025, though independent analyses put the number lower.

A DHS spokesperson said 3 million unauthorized immigrants left the U.S. during Trump's first year back in office and noted the agency is still targeting worksites — but they didn't directly respond to the Mass Deportation Coalition's plan.

“Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to protect public safety, national security, and economic stability while rescuing individuals who may be victims of labor trafficking or exploitation," the spokesperson said. "These operations target illegal employment networks that undermine American workers, destabilize labor markets, and threaten American communities."

Industry groups are warning worksite enforcement would disrupt supply chains. Last June, after immigration raids on farms and meatpacking plants sent a shiver through the agriculture industry and drew negative headlines, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and others successfully lobbied the president to pivot to focus on blue cities instead — a move that eventually culminated with the tumultuous operation in Minneapolis.

“The president made clear where he stands on the issue, and made clear how he wants to see the policy enforced,” said John Hollay, president of the National Council of Agricultural Employers. “If [immigration raids] were to occur again on farm operations, that’s going to disrupt the food supply chain, and we’ve made that very clear. We know the president is committed to ensuring our food supply chain is not disrupted and that prices at the grocery store are not raised unnecessarily.”

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© Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

In Nevada, a gallon of gas is approaching $5. In Pennsylvania, farmers are fretting about the prices of fertilizer. And in Michigan, supply chain woes are throwing a wrench into the manufacturing and auto industry operations.

One month into the war in Iran, a new political reality is sinking in for Republicans in these and other battlegrounds: The war may not end as quickly as they initially hoped, and the literal and figurative costs keep rising.

Each week the war drags on prolongs the pain Americans feel. Economists have warned gas prices could continue to remain high for months even if the U.S. immediately de-escalates in Iran. Extended conflict also raises the risk of increased casualties, especially if U.S. servicemembers are deployed to on-the-ground combat. And it could sour MAGA voters whose support of President Donald Trump hinged, in part, on their opposition to “forever wars” and foreign regime change.

Some Republicans worry the war will depress turnout among staunch “America First” proponents ahead of a crucial midterm election. It’s not yet a political crisis, GOP strategists and county chairs across the country said. They’re still willing to trust the president — for now.

But they’re also finding it harder to brush off the consequences.

“What’s the end game? I don’t think the president has been clear about that,” said Todd Gillman, chair of the Monroe County Republican Party in Michigan. “The gas prices are a problem. We’re concerned how this might affect the midterms.”

A POLITICO poll this month found the president’s most loyal voters continue to back his decision to attack Iran, even though some say it violates MAGA principles or even breaks his campaign promise not to start new wars. But it also revealed real political risk if more U.S. troops are killed or the conflict extends much longer than the promised four to six weeks.

“I don't think it's going to impact Republicans’ desire to vote Republican, but I do believe that that turnout will be an issue,” said Craig Berland, chair of the Maricopa County, Arizona, Republican Party. “If the war drags on, that is going to impact the turnout, unless we are very, very successful in communicating and educating. And that's our plan, to do that.”

The situation in Iran remains in flux, and Trump could choose to withdraw U.S. support and end the country’s involvement at any moment.

Until then, the prolonged conflict is complicating the White House’s cost-of-living message, which voters consistently say is their top concern. In recent months, Trump and Vice President JD Vance embarked on an affordability messaging tour, dotting the country to deliver speeches about the administration’s wins in lowering costs and providing relief for working-class families.

But the affordability road show has screeched to a halt in the month since the U.S. launched its war in Iran.

“These types of major events can become all-consuming,” said Buzz Jacobs, a GOP strategist and White House official under George W. Bush. “They certainly suck up political capital, and they make it very difficult for the most senior officials, particularly the President, to focus on any other strategic objective.”

After Bush invaded Iraq, Jacobs recalled, a digital board outside the Situation Room listed the same meeting topics for weeks: “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, something else, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Jacobs said.

The White House pointed to polling that shows a majority of Republican voters back the Iran war.

“The President has been clear that, while there may be some short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, ultimately oil prices will quickly drop once the operation’s clear objectives have been achieved and America will be back on its solid trajectory of cooling inflation and robust growth thanks to this Administration’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.

In several battleground counties, GOP chairs are holding out hope that the impact will be temporary even as the reality of the war sets in and gas prices creep toward a national average of $4 per gallon.

“Yes, it's painful now. We all realize that it's painful, with the gas prices,” said Carson City, Nevada GOP chair Susan Ruch. “I know prices are going to go up — but I do know this is short term compared to World War III.”

That optimism is shared by Decatur County, Georgia, GOP Vice Chair Jesse Williard, who also believes gas prices will plummet quickly after the war ends, setting up Republicans to buck historic midterms trends and post a strong showing in November.

“The economy, I think between now and then, is going to be great,” he said. “If it goes the other direction, it may be horrible, but I anticipate it's going to be a red wave.”

But other GOP county chairs see early fractures ahead of November’s election, driven by surging costs that are already causing pain for businesses and consumers. In the Phoenix metro area, Berland, the Maricopa County chair, said door-to-door canvassing has become more difficult since the onset of the war.

“We're even going around canvassing neighborhoods and registered Republicans are yelling out the door, ‘go away, or I'm calling the police,’” Berland said. “I find that very discouraging.”

Voters’ frustrations, he said, stem from “the war or the economy. And the economy is defined largely by energy prices.”

Across Rural America, the pain is even more acute.

Farmers in Pennsylvania, North Dakota and other agriculture-heavy states are feeling the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which sent fertilizer prices skyrocketing just ahead of planting season. Some producers have had to shake up their plans last minute and plant new crops that are less reliant on fertilizer.

The scramble could lead to lower crop yields, which potentially means higher food prices this summer, North Dakota Farmers Union President Matt Perdue said.

Farmers have long been loyal to the GOP and Trump. But the war now poses another massive financial headache on top of the tariffs that have increased their production costs and evaporated markets abroad where they could sell their crops.

“We've had just a pile of uncertainty, a pile of volatility in the markets that we buy from and sell to and we're just creating more volatility, more uncertainty as we move ahead,” Perdue said.

A chorus of farm groups — including the often Trump-aligned American Farm Bureau — petitioned the White House for a bailout last week. And the agriculture lobby is requesting an ad hoc aid package from Congress to cover the mounting fertilizer costs.

Monroe County, Pennsylvania, GOP chair Pete Begley acknowledged that supply chain woes and high prices are pinching some in his community. But he’s willing to offer Trump a long runway before he gets worried.

“If it turns into six months later, we're still there, and the Ayatollah's son is still supposedly in charge, that I think will cause concern,” Begley said. “But for now, I think people are standing by the president.”

© Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP

When Brandon Herrera ran for Congress in 2024, the Republican Jewish Coalition called him “a goose-stepping extremist” and spent big to take him down. Two years later, he’s the presumptive GOP nominee — and his former foes are staying home as the GOP establishment moves to embrace him.

Herrera, a gun shop owner and popular YouTuber known as “The AKGuy” running in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, has faced widespread criticism for past videos in which he mimics a Nazi march to Nazi music, jokes about the Holocaust and boasts about his 1939 edition of “Mein Kampf.” His 2024 opponent, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) called him a “known neo-Nazi,” a characterization Herrera disputes. Concern over Herrera’s comments were so severe that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project spent more than $1 million two years ago and the Republican Jewish Coalition spent close to $400,000 to sink his campaign.

But now, a scandal forced Gonzales to drop out of the runoff, and Herrera is the GOP nominee in the sprawling, GOP-leaning Texas border district, which President Donald Trump carried by a 17-point margin in 2024.

And faced with the choice of a candidate they’ve long accused of antisemitism and a Democrat, these pro-Israel and Jewish groups are thus far choosing to sit on their hands.

AIPAC, which backs both Democratic and Republican pro-Israel candidates and usually focuses its efforts in primaries, has not endorsed in the race. AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa said in a statement only that the group would “continue to assess where candidates across the country stand on issues that affect the U.S.-Israel partnership.”

And the RJC, which only supports Republican candidates, won’t get involved. “The RJC has a longstanding policy of speaking out against those who traffic in Nazi ideology, and this is another case,” said RJC political director and spokesperson Sam Markstein. “The RJC opposed Mr. Herrera in 2024, and he will not get our support now.”

But Markstein made clear it was likely they would sit the race out rather than oppose him in the general election. “We've never supported a Democrat, so that should tell you everything you need to know,” he said.

In the weeks since Herrera finished as the top vote-getter in Texas’ March 4 primary and Gonzales dropped out, the GOP establishment has largely embraced Herrera.

Last week, as lawmakers and donors socialized during a glitzy Mar-a-Lago fundraiser for the House Freedom Caucus, which backed him in the primary, Herrera made a triumphant appearance, according to an attendee granted anonymity to detail a private event and another attendee’s post on social media. Trump announced his endorsement on social media the same night.

“Brandon is strongly supported by many Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in Texas, and Republicans in the US House,” Trump wrote. “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leadership followed a week later, calling him an “America First grassroots leader” in a joint statement Thursday.

Trump’s endorsement brings “a little bit of comfort” to pro-Israel GOP donors who view Trump as a loyal ally, said Gabriel Groisman, a Florida-based GOP donor active in pro-Israel circles. “We trust the president and his team in their vetting of congressional candidates,” Groisman said. “But it doesn't mean we don't ask questions and we don't dig further.”And Groisman said that the "ugly truth about politics" is Jewish Republican donors are now faced with the option of him or a Democrat, rather than another Republican. "So the question is whether it's better to have him in [office], or not. That's a very, very difficult question to answer."

Herrera criticized AIPAC’s spending against him in 2024, calling it “Israel first bullshit.” “I’m not anti-Israel, I’m anti Israel buying American elections,” he wrote on social media.

He has also been critical of U.S. policy toward Israel, arguing American taxpayers should not have to pay for military aid to Israel. We shouldn't be spending a cent of taxpayer dollars on anything that is not either an investment or right here in the United States,” he said in a speech, Israel National News reported. “I don't hate my neighbor just because I don't want to pay his power bill. If they want to buy rockets from us, let's sell to them."

Republicans’ embrace of Herrera shows how seriously the GOP values maintaining control of the House this cycle, even as some Republicans warn of growing antisemitism within their own ranks.

Herrera’s campaign has continued to publicly push back on criticisms of his social media history, which they contend are taken out of context from his “work as a historical firearms educator” and omitting extended clips that include “comments ridiculing and condemning Hitler’s book.” 

“The accusations against Brandon were bizarre and false, manufactured by a desperate political opponent who misleadingly cut and pasted together disparate video clips,” Herrera campaign manager Kimmie Gonzalez said in a statement.

Groisman, the Florida-based donor, said Herrera’s allies are working to assuage concerns about his past statements through outreach to Jewish and pro-Israel donors in Texas and beyond.

“They're trying to send them what he has actually said, versus what people say he said, which they seem to claim that there's a big delta there,” Groisman said. “The concern is, are we, as a Republican Party, allowing in another potential Thomas Massie-type figure? Nobody knows the answer to that question.” Massie, a Republican member of the House from Kentucky, has been an outspoken critic of Trump and Israel.

Herrera’s campaign confirmed he is looking for dialogue with those same groups that have attacked him for years — including the RJC.

Katie Padilla Stout, the Democratic nominee in the district, has said that Herrera has “consistently been on the wrong side of history,” citing content from his YouTube videos that mocked veterans and another video in which he tested Nazi weaponry. Padilla Stout has started to make allegations of antisemitism core to her attacks on her Republican opponent, as outside Democratic groups — like the House Majority PAC — use his past videos as attacks.

"Given his documented history of apparent anti-semitism, it's no surprise our campaign has received an outpouring of support from people from all across the district and from both sides of the aisle, including support from the Jewish community,” Padilla Stout’s campaign manager, Yolitzma Aguirre, said in a statement.

Some of the Republican officeholders who have warned loudly about growing antisemitism within their party dodged when asked about Herrera.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has vowed to take on any Republican congressional candidate who espoused antisemitism, but when asked about Herrera said “I don't know what you're talking about, in terms of what he said.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who denounced podcaster Nick Fuentes as a “goose-stepping Nazi” during a speech last week, has stayed out of the primary, even as he endorsed in other U.S. House races in his state. He said questions about Herrera’s statements or actions should be directed to Herrera himself.

“I haven't seen the video you're discussing, and so you're welcome to ask him those questions,” Cruz said in a brief interview last week.

When asked how he would advise Texas voters to cast their ballot in Herrera’s race, Cruz refused to answer. “Those are the exact same questions a Democrat tracker would ask,” Cruz said before walking away. His office declined to elaborate on his answers.

While Republicans circle the wagons or duck the topic, a Jewish Democratic group that rarely plays in districts like this is thinking about investing in trying to defeat Herrera.

The Jewish Democratic Council of America is considering getting involved in the heavily Republican district, which would deviate from their norm of engaging only in districts with significant Jewish voter populations.

“If there was ever a chance that a Democrat could win a seat like this, maybe it's in these midterms,” said JDCA CEO Halie Soifer. “So it is something we're looking at. Certainly it is a priority for us to defeat Trump-endorsed neo-Nazis, like this candidate.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misspelled Halie Soifer's name and misstated her title.

© Brandon Bell/Getty Images