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历史的残局

By: wuyagege
25 December 2023 at 00:29

亲爱的读者圣诞节快乐!

2023年已近尾声,那就聊一下历史的残局(Endgame)吧,或者时髦词“历史的垃圾时间”。

中国上一次进入残局并非庚子国变后的晚清日落,而是离我们近得多的 1970 年代。

1971 年,助力毛泽东发动文革的得力副手、写进党章里的接班人、“永远健康”的林彪同志命丧温都尔汗。

文革无以为继,政治陷入僵局,民生经济萧条。

但毛泽东还没死。他不死,文革歹戏拖棚,一切都无从改变。

对毛失望透顶的党内干部和党外青年只能干熬,盼望“万寿无疆”早日去见马克思。结果却先等来周恩来去世……

1976年清明节,已经等得不耐烦的北京市民借着悼念周恩来的名义发起“四五运动”,聚集天安门广场献花、念悼亡诗、追打警察、掀翻汽车、冲击人民大会堂。

“中国已不是过去的中国,人民也不是愚不可及,秦皇的时代已一去不返了!”

“誓把今日的秦始皇送上历史的断头台,让愚昧、专制、封建的制度一去不复返。”

《天安门诗抄》,1976 清明节

“伟大领袖”密切关注着广场上的动向,精明如他当然知道“秦皇”究竟在说谁;四个月后,毛泽东郁郁而终。

1976 年 10 月 5 日,华国锋、叶剑英、汪东兴发动怀仁堂政变。垃圾时间结束,中国历史翻开新的一页。

铁板一块、人人愚忠只是“文化大革命”政治高压所塑造的假象。在这五年残局时间里,人心思变,暗流涌动,酝酿出了新的可能。

文革源流

毛泽东在中共党内的声望于 1956 年到达顶峰。

国门外的韩战和国境内的政治整肃同步进行,确定了中国在共产体系内的稳固地位。

在苏联技术扩散支持下,首个五年计划超额完成,农业国迈入工业化。经历“三大改造”,党权深入农村和边疆,城市居民也被编入严密的“单位制”网格。

除了迈不过去的台湾海峡,外无大患,内无强敌,一个暴烈、强大而稳固的共产主义政权在抗战、内战与韩战的废墟上冉冉升起。

然而历史之神偏爱开玩笑。谦受益,满招损,实力滋长野心:瞧不起赫鲁晓夫的毛泽东认为自己才是共产主义世界的新一代领袖、斯大林真正的接班人。

历史进程陡然加速:百花运动、大跃进、中苏决裂,短短三年就酿出人类历史上死亡人口最多的大饥荒(3000万——4500万非正常死亡,按照不同的统计口径)。

大灾当前,人非草木。中共干部们面对本党这位浪漫又狂妄、自信又多疑的领袖,只能用进谏之类的“柔性政变”方式要求领袖认错,退居二线。以“守序专制”取代“混乱专制”。

1959 年庐山会议,彭德怀率先对毛泽东发难,惨遭镇压。第一次柔性政变失败,大饥荒继续。

1962 年七千人大会,刘少奇率领党政官僚体系批评毛泽东:“三分天灾,七分人祸”。毛泽东认错,第二次柔性政变成功。

这七千人包括中央局、各省、市、地、县、厂矿领导人,他们推崇刘少奇这种“儒家斯大林主义者”。务实、勤政、铁腕的政工干部以理性规划主导国政。

党国精英已对毛泽东去魅,如同对待家里遭人厌的老长辈,敬而远之,仅仅维持表面上的尊重。身段柔软的周恩来擅长表演忠诚,曾一直紧随毛泽东的邓小平却开始导向刘少奇。

这也决定着三人未来的命运:刘少奇身死,邓小平起起落落,周恩来与毛缠斗到生命最后一刻。

请看毛泽东后来的抱怨:

“邓小平从来不找我,从五九年到现在,什么事情不找我。”

“邓小平耳朵聋,一开会就在我很远的地方坐着。五九年以来六年不向我汇报工作”

“邓小平对我敬而远之”

领导人下台或者被架空,在共产主义世界并不独特。苏共政变推翻赫鲁晓夫,德共昂纳克取代乌布里希,越南共产党黎笋架空胡志明……

真正独特的是:失去党国精英支持的毛泽东,多年以后居然能够卷土重来。他充分利用了一个时间差:中国普通民众和青少年一代对毛泽东的信仰崇拜,迟至 1966 年才达到最高峰。

因此 1966 年“文化大革命”是毛泽东在林彪支持下,发动党外青年一代,清算与他路线不和、对他本人不敬的党国精英。

支持毛泽东的三股力量:

  • 毛的嫡系人马

  • 以林彪为首的军队

  • 被发动起来的党外青年群众(大学生、中小学生和青年工人)

党外群众对官僚体系有诸多不满,这种不满由毛泽东亲自点燃,怒火指向刘少奇为首的党政官僚。

当第一批红卫兵(干部子弟为主)发现整场运动的斗争对象居然是自己的高干父母时,他们对毛泽东迅速去魅了。

当第二批红卫兵(学生造反派以及工人造反派)参与打倒党内官僚后,自然也失去了利用价值。

政党机器已被摧毁,但被中央文革小组发动起来的造反派四分五裂,无法组建有效政府。只有军队尚保持完整的官僚层级制,最终林彪领导的军队出场,以血腥暴力恢复社会秩序,主导各地的新型政府“革命委员会”,赶红卫兵们“上山下乡”,压制内战。

百万知识青年在“广阔天地”中变相劳改。他们有足够的时间反思,思考国家和个人的命运。

视频:1969 年中共九大资料片,文革的顶点

1969 年起,中国已变成由军队实质管理的国家,毛泽东对林彪的疑心滋长。

1971 年林彪的政变企图失败(被自家崇拜毛的女儿告发)出逃苏联,折戟温都尔汗。

文革破灭

因此除了惯常的“十年文革”叙事之外,史学届还有“三年文革”和“五年文革”的说法,前者认为文革 1969 年就结束了,后者认为文革到了 1971 无以为继。

林彪事件为文革和毛崇拜划下了休止符。

“一九七一年的林彪事件,几乎是当天从境外广播中听到的。

这是七十年代最重要的事。毛泽东的神话顷刻崩溃。从一九六六年八一八毛泽东在天安门城楼上挥手开始,不,从刘少奇提出“毛泽东思想”开始,至此,催眠终止。

大家都从床上坐起来,互相看着,震惊中涌出喜不自胜。虽然竹笆草房永远是透气的,但是大家还是往外走,觉得外面空气好一些。”

阿城《听敌台》

写进党章里的接班人居然叛逃,总是站在毛泽东身侧的助手是叛徒?

被打倒的干部们有幸灾乐祸,也有兔死狐悲;党外青年群众等着毛泽东给个解释。最终林立果起草的《五七一工程纪要》下发至县级,作为林彪阴谋的证据,其中写着:

他们的社会主义实质是社会法西斯主义。
他们把中国的国家机器变成一种互相残杀,互相倾轧的绞肉机式的。
把党内和国家政治生活变成封建专制独裁式家长制生活。
实际上他已成了当代的秦始皇……

他不是一个真正的马列主义者,而是一个行孔孟之道借马列主义之皮、执秦始皇之法的中国历史上最大的封建暴君。

其中对社会现状的分析,大概也能引发阅读者的赞同:

党内长期斗争和文化大革命中被排斥和打击的高级干部敢怒不敢言。
农民生活缺吃少穿。
青年知识分子上山下乡,等于变相劳改。
红卫兵初期受骗被利用,已经发现充当炮灰,后期被压制变成了替罪羔羊。
机关干部被精简,上五七干校等于变相失业。

《五七一工程纪要》如同一道闪电,毛崇拜烟消云散。在各种与文革相关的私人回忆里,很多知识青年都会回忆起自己第一次得知林彪身死时自己身在何方、在做什么,就像美国同代人回忆起肯尼迪遇刺。

同时被普遍记忆的还有偷听敌台的经历。

天南海北的知青和中共干部们,通过收音机来掌握中国政治的动向。偷听敌台在 1970 年代已成常态。美国之音电台成了《人民日报》之后的中国第二大公共媒体。

“草原地广人辟,天高皇帝远,蒙族干部,言语不通,难做‘政治思想工作’,竟对知青播放的美国之音开始曲‘扬基歌’大加赞赏,连连夸奖这一乐曲的动听。不知是哪个知青,还将诸如‘敬祝毛主席万寿无疆’之类的词加入曲中,唱给不断追问的牧民听,逗得知青们捧腹大笑。”

内蒙知情回忆

表面铁板一块,野火地下燃烧。

在没有民意调查的年代,政治学家和历史学家无从统计究竟有多少人产生了反毛意识,直到 1976 年四五运动爆发,外国观察家才能发现中国内部的暗流涌动。

四五运动

1975 年邓小平短暂恢复工作,帮助重病中的毛泽东和周恩来收拾经济烂摊子。然而毛要求邓小平继承文革遗产,等自己死后不准推翻文革政策。邓小平强硬拒绝,再次被解职。

毛泽东对自己死后的局面忧心忡忡,他并不认为自己的嫡系有能力维持局面,尤其是周恩来等一系列干部仍在位的情况下。

1976 年 1 月 8 日,周恩来去世。遗体告别仪式上,江青不行脱帽礼,毛泽东不参加追悼会。

据张玉凤回忆,她当时问毛:“去参加总理的追悼会吗?”毛泽东拍拍自己的腿说:“我走不动了。”

内部通令不准群众戴黑纱,不准送花圈,不准设灵堂,不准开追悼会,不准挂遗像。

1 月 11 日,北京百万市民自发上街为周恩来送行,“十里长街送总理”。这不只是哀悼,也是一种政治反抗。人民日报对此事不做报道。

月后流言四起,说毛泽东在中南海里放鞭炮庆祝。

对毛泽东已经完全失望的人多多少少还对周恩来抱有一些好感,现在,毛泽东及其亲信连周恩来也不肯放过,使人们感到执政集团里已经是“洪洞县里没好人”了。于是,群众性的抗议活动首先在南京爆发,很快就蔓延到北京和全国各地。

陈子明

1976年 3 月 29 日,南京市民率先上街游行示威。口号:“谁反对周总理就打倒谁”。

4 月 4 日、5 日清明节,中国多座城市发生示威游行。最激烈的冲突出现在天安门广场。

因为中美关系缓和,当时北京已有外媒记者驻站,《纽约时报》记者发回现场报道:

北京,4 月 6 日周二——昨日北京天安门广场爆发暴力示威,显然是出于对已故前总理周恩来及其同志者的支持。几乎无人采取措施制止示威活动。

抗议活动持续了一整天。约 3 万示威群众试图冲进人民大会堂,许多人放火焚烧汽车和附近的一幢建筑。随后,民兵手持木棍进行清场。

纽约时报 1976 年 4 月 6 日

1976年刊登在《纽约时报》上的本文原文。

中共高干子弟如此回忆:

“那几天,毛泽东密切注视着天安门广场。他与广场同呼吸共命运。虽然他已半截身子入土但并不妨碍他掌握广场的动向。

他的心情很沉重。以前,天安门广场属于他。现在,广场不再属于他。他悲怆地意识到他与广场的蜜月已经结束。他已不再是广场中人。他力图还是,但广场已不收容他了。广场抛弃他了。”

刘亚洲

四个月后,毛泽东郁郁而终。

毛泽东死时,我正在北京,毫无感觉(他已在听敌台的云南知青心里于七一年死去)

阿城

正如那一代中国人都会背诵的诗歌:

有的人活着

他已经死了;

有的人死了

他还活着。

有的人

骑在人民头上:“呵,我多伟大!”

有的人

俯下身子给人民当牛马。

有的人

把名字刻入石头,想“不朽”;

有的人

情愿作野草,等着地下的火烧。

有的人

他活着别人就不能活;

有的人

他活着为了多数人更好地活。

臧克家

中国新生

毛泽东的死亡以一场全国哀悼剧终,没有人敢不痛哭失声。其中有多少真诚的眼泪,有多少感时伤世,有多少喜极而泣,没有民调专家能做统计。

文革产生了一系列意料之外的后果:

  • 它彻底消磨了共产主义狂热,意识形态退烧;

  • 它打碎了中央权威,权力碎裂到地方;

  • 它毁掉了计划经济体系,反而为接受市场化转轨提供了可能;

  • 它使中国进一步脱离了苏联阵营,转而加入美国体系;

这四个条件都为改革开放政策铺平了道路。同时更重要是:

它让一小部分中国人民,尤其是出身城市的年轻知识分子,产生了新思想。他们在苦难中反思体制,在黑暗中信仰光明,一步步走向已在中国断代许久的人权与民主意识。

最终新的思维点燃新的行动,产生了走上街头的集体抗议。这股改变中国的冲动如潮水拍岸,波涛汹涌于整个八零年代。

今天先写到这里,以后再聊中国变幻莫测的 1980 年代~

推荐阅读

我们读历史,是为了体会人类面对各种处境所作出的选择,而不是拿历史做简单的影射或类比。

历史从不重复,它只是偶尔押韵。每一代人都面对全新的局面,要求时人做出自己的选择。而我们的选择,也将汇入未来的历史,被后人记忆。

我主业是欧洲现代史,并非中国现代史,文中史实错漏之处,请各位朋友不吝批评。

进一步阅读:

阿城:《听敌台

杨小凯:《 牛鬼蛇神录

高华:《历史笔记》,牛津大学出版社 2019

陈子明:《四五运动:中国二十世纪的转折点》博智出版社 2006

麦克法考尔:《文化大革命的起源 卷3》,香港中文出版社 2012

麦克法夸尔、沈迈克:《毛泽东最后的革命》,香港星克尔出版公司 2009

魏昂德:《脱轨的革命:毛泽东时代的中国》,香港中文出版社 2015

文安立:Brothers in Arms. Washington / Stanford 1998

拉琴科:Two Suns in the Heaven. Washington, D.C. 2009

沈大伟:China's Leaders: From Mao to Now. Washington, D.C. 2021

白思鼎、李华钰编:《中国学习苏联》,香港中文出版社 2019

冯客:《解放的悲劇:中國革命史1945-1957》聯經出版公司 2018

冯客:《毛澤東的大饑荒:中國浩劫史1958-1962》聯經出版公司 2021

冯客:《文化大革命:人民的歷史1962-1976》聯經出版公司 2016

冯客:《后毛泽东时代的中国》聯經出版公司 2024

潘佐夫:《毛澤東:真實的故事》,聯經出版公司 2015

潘佐夫:《鄧小平: 革命人生》,聯經出版公司 2016

钟延麟:《文革前的邓小平》,香港中文出版社 2013

高文谦:《晚年周恩来》,明镜出版社 2003

陈兼:《Zhou Enlai: A Life 周恩来传》,哈佛大学出版社 2024

如果喜欢这个专栏,请推荐给家人朋友订阅,感谢阅读!

Thanks for reading 不如读书! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

AI in Chains

13 December 2023 at 21:02

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This piece was authored by Ciel Qi, a researcher specializing in emerging technology, security, and US-China relations.

In a recent article on ChinaTalk, anonymous contributor L-squared illustrated the detrimental impact of China’s stringent AI regulations on Chinese firms: “the scope of regulatory targets is actually wider than expected, and Chinese AI diffusion is being seriously compromised by confused and overbearing regulatory action.” Echoing that article’s sentiment, I put forward three arguments on how China’s regulatory framework could stall its domestic generative AI development:

  1. Its expansive content controls could impair AI model performance,

  2. The excessive responsibility it places on AI providers could overburden them,

  3. And its limitations on providers and bans on generating certain kinds of content could deter users from engaging with Chinese AI models.

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The Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services 生成式人工智能服务管理暂行办法 (“the Interim Measures”) are a key part of China’s generative AI regulatory landscape. Drafted in April of this year, they came into effect in August, spelling out the responsibilities of providers offering generative AI services to the Chinese public. Currently, these providers are predominantly Chinese tech giants like Baidu (the provider of Ernie Bot 文心一言) and Alibaba (the provider of Tongyi Qianwen 通义千问). And the Interim Measures are supported by a recently released technical policy document called the Basic Security Requirements for Generative Artificial Intelligence Service 生成式人工智能服务安全基本要求 (“the Basic Security Requirements”).

True, the Interim Measures and the Basic Security Requirements express the Chinese government’s encouragement for developing generative AI — but a deeper examination reveals their potential to stall that development.

Expansive Content Control Impairs Model Performance

Content control is a central aspect of China’s generative AI regulations. The Interim Measures stipulate that the content generated by generative AI must adhere to the “core values of socialism” 坚持社会主义核心价值观. Content is prohibited if it promotes “the subversion of state authority” 煽动颠覆国家政权 or the “overthrow of the socialist system” 推翻社会主义制度, or which “threatens or compromises national security and interests” 危害国家安全和利益. Further, generative AI must not generate “false or harmful information, or any content that is outlawed by legal and administrative frameworks” 虚假有害信息等法律、行政法规禁止的内容 (Article 4.1).

Given that the Chinese government considers a wide spectrum of content “false or harmful,” adhering to these regulations requires China-based generative AI service providers to censor such content, regardless of the technical feasibility of doing so. Moreover, implementing a censorship mechanism during the training phase — which could be required by the Basic Security Requirements (discussed in the following section) — could significantly narrow the breadth and diversity of the data that a generative AI model is trained on. As the robustness and effectiveness of a model largely depend on a wide and diverse set of training data, a generative AI model enforcing under extensive content regulation is likely to exhibit compromised performance — including, as L-squared also suggested, reduced “helpfulness and honesty.”

Excessive Responsibility Overburdens Generative AI Providers

China’s regulations on generative AI impose a significant burden on providers. A key requirement is for them to file algorithms with the Cyberspace Administration of China or its local branches within ten days of launching their generative AI service. As stipulated in the 2022 Administrative Provisions on Algorithm Recommendation for Internet Information Services 互联网信息服务算法推荐管理规定, the Interim Measures mandate this filing obligation only when a provided service possesses “public opinion attributes or social mobilization capabilities” 舆论属性或者社会动员能力. But since the Chinese government could interpret this condition so broadly, it’s likely that any generative AI provider catering to the public will be obligated to fulfill this requirement. While big Chinese tech companies may find compliance straightforward, smaller entities or startups (which L-squared estimates make up 44.2% of Chinese companies that have filed algorithms) may find the process burdensome. And the need to prepare and submit the required documentation shifts companies’ focus away from other vital tasks such as bug fixing and releasing new iterations, which are often crucial steps post-launch.

The Interim Measures demand — without mentioning specifics — that generative AI providers conduct a security review 安全评估 (Article 17). Even so, insight into the expectations can be gleaned from the recently released draft of the Basic Security Requirements. This document mandates providers to carry out a security assessment of training data and blacklist datasets containing more than five percent of “illegal and harmful information” 违法不良信息. While the Interim Measures require providers to offer necessary training of data annotators (see Article 8), the Basic Security Requirements take a step further by requiring providers to regularly evaluate their annotators and certify those who meet the qualifications (Article 8.1). Moreover, providers whose services extend to minors are required to implement measures that prevent addiction and filter out inappropriate content for minors (Article 7.a.3-4). Before public launch (Article 4) and after major updates of a generative AI service (Article 7.g.2), the Basic Security Requirements also demand a security review to evaluate the security of training data and generated content, with the review findings to be submitted to Chinese authorities.

Even for well-resourced big Chinese tech companies, ensuring compliance with such requirements will incur additional costs, either in terms of human capital or financial resources. For example, data annotation in China is commonly outsourced to third parties, but the requirements necessitate that providers now invest additional resources in training, evaluating, and certifying data annotators in-house. For small- and medium-sized companies, compliance with the regulations could potentially drain vital limited resources.

Potential User Disengagement

China’s framework for regulating generative AI could potentially deter user engagement. While, as noted above, regulations primarily delineate the responsibilities of providers, the Interim Measures also mandate that users of generative AI services must not generate false or harmful information. And service providers still don’t escape here: per Article 14, they are required to report to Chinese authorities if they discover users engaging in illegal activities with their generative AI services.

Even a highly fine-tuned model might inadvertently generate content deemed harmful, especially given the Chinese government’s broad categorization of harmful and illegal information. That knowledge may discourage users from utilizing generative AI services: they might fear accidentally generating information which would put them at risk. Moreover, providers might tighten access to their APIs to preempt any possible misuse. Even before the release of the Interim Measures, some Chinese companies already had a relatively stringent screening process for prospective users in place — so with more companies implementing heightened access restrictions, even more potential users will likely be deterred.

The potential unwillingness of users to utilize domestically provided generative AI services, stemming from content-control concerns or restricted access, might drive them to use non-Chinese generative AI services — which may lead to a dwindling user base for China’s local generative AI services, impacting the revenues of the companies behind them. Although the Chinese government might offset these financial drawbacks through research funding, thus ensuring continued innovation despite suboptimal revenues, China’s domestic generative AI could lag behind international competitors without more public testing and feedback as to how to improve a model.

ChinaTalk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Conclusion and Considerations

The rapid development of generative AI, coupled with the potential risks posed by this technology, underscores the need for regulations. While various governments are examining and evaluating the most viable regulatory framework for generative AI, China has taken a forward-leaning stance by setting out — and in some instances implementing — generative AI regulations. Nevertheless, by focusing on expansive content control and placing excessive responsibility on service providers, China risks stalling its domestic generative AI development.

To be sure, this slowdown is not inevitable. After all, the Interim Measures are called “interim,” suggesting a possible willingness to amend them down the road. Moreover, as the Basic Security Requirements have just concluded the process of soliciting public opinion, it’s possible they will be moderated in the final policy version (likely facilitated, as L-squared points out, by “pushback from [Chinese] industry”). And even if the original form of both regulations remains unchanged — in which case China’s generative AI is likely to be significantly constrained — China’s regulatory framework could still offer other countries interesting angles to consider in shaping their own regulatory frameworks, such as regulating the data annotation industry, preventing addiction among minors, and enhancing transparency in generative AI services.

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PLA Purges! What does it all mean for Xi and Taiwan Risk?

25 October 2023 at 18:40

Yesterday Defense Minister Li Shangfu got officially purged. To discuss, we brought on Joel Wuthnow, a fellow at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, US-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. He joined ChinaTalk to discuss Xi Jinping’s recent purges of high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi’s larger vision for the PLA, and what all this internal turmoil might mean for China’s longer-term designs on Taiwan.

Key insights:

  • Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA;

  • Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks;

  • Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department);

  • Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan;

  • Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility.

Trust Issues in the PLA

Jordan Schneider: Xi Jinping’s got some trust issues. Over the past few months he’s run through a number of PLA generals he appointed less than twelve months ago! Joel, two-sentence overview: what has happened with these purges of late? 

Joel Wuthnow: There have been many purges inside China, even beyond the PLA. Qin Gang 秦刚 disappeared, a whole bunch of people from the defense industry up and disappeared. In the PLA, a number of senior generals are missing in action; right now, frankly, we don’t know where they are. There are a lot of rumors circulating about these key figures, including the Defense Minister [Li Shangfu 李尚福] and the former commander of the Rocket Force [Li Yuchao 李玉超]. It’s not a good look for Xi Jinping.

The fact that there are so many people missing all at once means that Xi has a lack of trust and lack of confidence in some of his senior leadership right now.

Jordan Schneider: From the PLA watcher community, I had one friend reach out to me who said he was bummed about all this! He’s been following Li Shangfu for a decade, and all of a sudden he’s gone.

Are you excited or sad to see your friends leave the stage? What’s the emotional response when you see a new round of crackdowns?

Joel Wuthnow: For me, the feeling is surprise coupled with curiosity. It’s a shocking state of affairs, and the reason is this: us PLA watchers all mostly assume that Xi’s really in charge of the machine over there, that he put his people into place, and that his political rivals were gone a decade ago.

So it’s really surprising to wake up and find that the Defense Minister, someone who is probably pretty close to Xi — he’s on the Central Military Commission — is just gone. It’s surprising and a little bit worrisome, if you think about its implications for China.

Jordan Schneider: I think we should start by unpacking the idea that Xi has controlled or put his stamp on the PLA. To do that, we need to start with a little bit of institutional history. What was the bargain that Deng Xiaoping gave the PLA coming into the 1980s?

Joel Wuthnow: Back in the 1980s, the PLA was governing society. They were stacked in the Politburo. They were a very important part of the leadership and had a huge amount of power. Then Deng Xiaoping said, “No, we’re going to focus on reforming the economy. We want to bring in technocrats, and we want the military to be put in its place and put back in its barracks.” He said to the PLA, “We want you to modernize, but we’re not going to give you that much money to do it.”

It didn’t seem like a great bargain for the PLA. They had to give up a lot of authority and status without getting a lot of money. So, Deng said, “Okay, go back to your barracks — but you decide what you’re going to do. We’re not going to look into your affairs or get too involved in your business.”

So, Deng gave the PLA a huge amount of autonomy, and this was acceptable to them.

However, this also created a situation that allowed the PLA to become very corrupt and very inward-lookingvery secretive and poorly supervised by the Politburo and the senior civilian leadership of the Party. This is really the origin of a lot of the problems that we’re seeing today.

China doesn’t have Western-style civil-military relations where there’s a lot of civilian oversight of the military — political appointees, courts, judges, media. There’s really none of that in China. So that’s the situation that the PLA found themselves in: corrupt and secretive, though not rebellious — they weren’t starting military coups against the leaders, as you saw in 1991 with the Soviet Union. But they weren’t fully professional and or fully “clean.” So the seed for what’s going on today was planted about forty years ago — in the 1980s — with Deng Xiaoping.

Jordan Schneider: The reason the PLA was so ingrained in society was because Mao decided that they were the only way to get the country out of the Cultural Revolution. So it was basically PLA power or complete chaos. This resulted in a very awkward situation where, if you’re in the PLA — if you’re not about to fight a war anytime soon and everyone else is getting rich around you — the dominant strategies if you want to rise up and be successful are to either do things like import luxury cars and run hotels; or to just graft on the procurement that’s been allocated to your budget instead of doing what the Premier wants (which is to get you in tip-top shape to potentially deter adversaries and maybe even fight an aggressive war).

So, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao: what did they want to do, and how did they struggle to execute their vision of what the PLA should be doing in the 1990s and 2000s?

Joel Wuthnow: Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao both basically wanted to make the PLA give up its business interests. The PLA was running all sorts of business empires as a way to make ends meet. Part of the way Jiang and Hu tried to undo this was by giving the PLA larger budgets; so in the 1990s and early 2000s, there were double-digit budget increases, as well as new rules and regulations.

A lot of the PLA’s operations, like the casinos and the luxury cars, were actually shut down — but this didn’t really change the basics: the PLA wasn’t well-governed or -supervised.

Jordan Schneider: To give folks a sense of just how broken the system was — there was not a way to rise up in the ranks without being corrupt? Because at a certain point you ended up having to buy your rank. All these positions had dollar amounts attached.

Say you want to get promoted and you don’t have a rich Chinese uncle that you can find to bankroll you. Who else might be interested in supporting folks getting promoted in the PLA system? Foreign intelligence agencies. So you end up with this very vicious cycle of the people who are getting promoted actually being the ones who are on the take from adversaries. This is the dynamic that Xi is facing as he comes to power in 2011 and 2012. Any other thoughts, Joel?

Joel Wuthnow: You’re right; it was really prolific, with schemes inside the general political department, which is like an HR system. Becoming a general had a renminbi 人民币 amount attached to it.

So when Xi comes to power in 2012, everybody who’s in the PLA is complicit in this system.

Xi’s dilemma was that he needed to fix the system, but couldn’t just get rid of everybody. So the top people on his list were those who were not only corrupt, but who were also associated with his political rivals. He focused first on Jiang Zemin’s people.

Jordan Schneider: So the hope was that you could scare people straight, while at the same time hopefully changing the institutional incentive such that everyone who may have had a dirty past ends up seeing the light, focusing on military national rejuvenation as opposed to making sure that their grandkids can have a beach house in Malibu, or what have you.

Joel Wuthnow: Exactly. But this isn’t to overstate or overplay the problem or imply that these guys are just sitting around doing corrupt schemes. Some of them are probably competent officers.

Reforming the PLA?

Jordan Schneider: So Xi starts off with a bang, throws a lot of folks out, including a lot of very senior folks, and then tries to build in some institutional reform so that this doesn’t happen again. At the same time he has a very ambitious vision for what he wants the PLA to achieve. So Joel, walk us through those two things: the reforms and his hopes for the PLA.

Joel Wuthnow: The reforms have many different pieces, some of which are about making the PLA a better warfighting organization, others of which are about making the PLA better managed. I’ll focus on the latter.

What Xi is trying to do is rearrange the system so that the people who are the supervisors — the internal control people — are a little bit disentangled from each other. Previously the General Political Department had all the power and was doing all the supervision. Corruption was investigated at that level. Xi Jinping broke up the General Political Department into a bunch of different components — financial auditors, anti-corruption people, military-court people. They’re all different from each other now; they don’t work for each other and are not part of the same bureaucracy.

These days, there are a few different control chains that come up independently to Xi Jinping’s level. He’s trying to eliminate corruption from that angle.

Ultimately, though, it’s a limited solution to the problem — because these are all still PLA officers. They all came up through the same corrupt system.

They’re all former GPD people, and they don’t work for each other anymore — but there’s no outside supervision or external control. So it is a reform that may make the system a bit better, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem, which is that the PLA is in its own little box.

Jordan Schneider: I assume another dynamic is that Xi has a very ambitious dream for the military power that China is able to project, which has led to 10% annual increases in the budget and, all of a sudden, a whole lot more money sloshing around than there ever has been in the history of this organization.

So the temptation is probably greater than it ever was in the Jiang and Hu eras, just because there’s so much more cash floating around.

Joel Wuthnow: There’s a lot of money sloshing around — the latest rumor is about the two guys from the Rocket Force [PLARF] who disappeared. That’s part of the PLA that’s undergoing a big expansion right now. They’re building silo fields; they’re building new ICBMs; they’re doing all sorts of construction there. The dominant rumor is that the entire leadership in the Rocket Force was in on some kind of scheme that’s not yet known, but it’s likely that there was so much money going into their strategic arsenal that the temptation was too great and the supervision was too limited and something got out of control, which led to Xi’s crackdown. But the details are totally opaque right now, and there are so many different rumors. It does seem to be about money.

Jordan Schneider: Can we get a two-second sidebar on what the Rocket Force is? It’s not something that most countries currently have.

Joel Wuthnow: It’s a little bit of a misnomer because they’re called the Rocket Force, but really this is the ICBMs, the land-based ballistic missiles. The Rocket Force runs most of the PLA’s nuclear arsenal for the PLA.

In addition to nuclear, they also manage the long-range conventional missile forces. You may have heard of the anti-ship ballistic missile or the DF26, the Guam killer. This is all part of the Rocket Force’s arsenal. It’s not so much rockets as it is ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Jordan Schneider: This is the really interesting internal contradiction here: on the one hand, something is wrong enough for Xi to want to fire these folks; but at least to outside observers, the Rocket Force has had some real technological successes. Can you talk a little bit about hypersonics and the broader development capabilities that the Rocket Force has presumably overseen?

Joel Wuthnow: The big thing with hypersonics is that it’s not like a ballistic missile. It’s a different trajectory. It’s not the speed — it’s that they’re very hard to track and intercept.

The reason why China is investing so much money in this is because it sees this technology as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict. China understands that we are reliant on large bases in the western Pacific, and they’re also aware that we’re building ballistic missile defenses.

It’s technologies like hypersonics that China thinks are an ace card, a game changer in terms of deterring, disrupting, and defeating us. Of course it’s also the case that the Chinese are just very, very good — historically and today — at missile forces and artillery and rocketry. 

It’s operationally very significant and they’re good at it; hence, there’s a whole lot of money going into hypersonics.

Jordan Schneider: To that point, we’ve seen very impressive tests, which is at least a data point that the Rocket Force isn’t wasting and stealing everything that’s going through their coffers.

Joel Wuthnow: Right, it’s not that this money is going for naught. The question for Xi Jinping is: if they haven’t been honest about the spending, are they hiding something? So this gets to trust. Showing off in parades and a successful test here and there is one thing, but if the balloon ever goes up, will this huge arsenal be reliable? It’s not just the missiles that have to work — it’s the satellites and the people that are sitting at the controls.

Jordan Schneider: How much less likely are you to start a war involving very tricky joint operations if you don’t have a ton of confidence in your generals?

Joel Wuthnow: My view is that you probably don’t want to go down that path. Xi seems to have confidence in what they’re doing right now in terms of coercion: sending planes slightly across the midline, sending a bunch of planes up into the ADIZ and so on. The PLA is able to do that, but when talking about the requirements of a war, so much more is on the line for him and the Party.

If Xi has questions about whether things are going to work and his people are competent, then the incentive to go down the warpath starts to decline very quickly. I think this internal dynamic is something we don’t pay enough attention to on our side.

What’s This Mean for the PLA’s Future?

Jordan Schneider: You wrote recently that there’s tremendous pressure on the PLA to demonstrate progress and prove that it deserves the government’s largesse. We’re at a moment where China’s macroeconomic health over the next few years is very unclear. Do you think there’s any potential that Xi becomes so frustrated and fed up with his current PLA that he decides to starve the beast a little bit, given competing priorities and the clear lack of trust that exists between him and his military?

Joel Wuthnow: I don’t expect that he’s going to cut the PLA’s budget. Xi talks about security all the time. He seems to be rather paranoid.

For example, he needed to be talked down back in 2020 when he thought the US was going to attack him. In October 2020, the PLA leadership seemed to genuinely fear that the US was going to attack them as part of a so-called “October Surprise,” and they needed to be reassured. This was the big story with General Mark Milley having to reassure his PLA counterpart.

This incident speaks to the larger issue of paranoia: Xi thinks the US is out to get him, that we’re doing color revolutions — which doesn’t match with trying to starve the beast.

The PLA is also not an insignificant political actor. I think they need to have some level of autonomy and attention from the top. Xi’s going to keep giving them funds, and he’s going to hope that they’re using them in the right way, but I think he does feel the need to continue to make examples out of people and show that he’s serious about these problems.

Nicholas Welch: When Xi came to power, he fired a whole bunch of people. And then during the recent Party Congress in October 2022, he stacked the Central Committee with loyalists. But now he’s firing people again. Do you think that this move makes him more or less likely to be influenced by a so-called echo chamber and to make rational decisions?

Joel Wuthnow: If you’re China, how do you get into a war? If you look at a pure cost-benefit analysis, I think the costs are very high and the benefits are not necessarily huge. But how else can you get into a war?

One possible way would be an echo chamber. Say the PLA is making a case to you as the boss: we’re ready. So Xi Jinping gave the PLA a 2027 deadline; they need to be ready to go to war with Taiwan by 2027. When that day comes, he’ll be asking the PLA, “What’s your update? I gave you time, I gave you money, I gave you a whole lot of inspirational talk — have you done it at this point?” And who’s going to come to him and say, “No, sorry, boss, we need another five years”?

So this is a concern — that the PLA lines up and says, “We’re ready, we think America is in decline, they’re a paper tiger, and Taiwan is having a lot of their own problems.”

If Xi Jinping comes to trust that and makes a decision based on false optimism — a bit like Putin being misled by his generals and invading Ukraine — it’s something worth worrying about.

That’s a different way of plunging into a war than just saying, “I’ve counted my missiles and counted their air defenses, and mine are superior” — that’s a clinical cost-benefit. This is more based on what you believe the outcome will be, regardless of how you’re actually going to perform. That echo chamber is worth worrying about.

Jordan Schneider: Doesn’t that echo chamber scenario seem pretty unlikely right now, as Xi is firing top leadership?

Joel Wuthnow: That’s basically right. If you had asked me the question a year ago, right after the Party Congress when the entire narrative was, “Xi has installed yes-men who aren’t going to give him candid advice and are going to tell him what they think he wants them to” — I would have given you a firmer answer on the overconfidence bit.

Now, given the shock of people disappearing and what that means in terms of his confidence, I’d say the chances are less than they were a year ago, less than they were two months ago — but not zero. That’s the reason to keep worrying. Five years from now, when Xi is seventy-five and he’s surrounded by people who may be giving him simple answers, we don’t know if there’s a 1 or 2 percent chance that he’ll believe them. To me, that’s still worth worrying about. What we’re really talking about is a 1 or 2 percent chance of calamity, so that’s still a pretty huge expected problem.

Paid subscribers get access to the second half of our conversation. We discuss why invasion timelines floated on both sides of the Pacific should be taken with a grain of salt, China’s calculus on Taiwan and Xi’s confidence in its warfighting technology, and Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities and what it could do better to stand its ground until help (possibly) arrives.

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本周碎碎念(13)

By: Stoner
5 December 2023 at 21:26

英文媒体年度图书汇总

纽约时报:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/books/review/best-books-2023.html

华尔街日报:https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/the-10-best-books-of-2023-846bed1a

Thanks for reading 网中的太阳! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

华盛顿邮报:https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2023/11/16/best-books-year/

金融时报:https://www.ft.com/booksof2023(重点推荐)

经济学人:https://www.economist.com/culture/2023/12/01/the-best-books-of-2023-as-chosen-by-the-economist(重点推荐)

纽约客:https://www.newyorker.com/best-books-2023(重点推荐)

NPR:https://apps.npr.org/best-books/#view=covers&year=2023

Five Books:https://fivebooks.com/books/best-books-of-2023/(重点推荐)

长文推荐

中国教育内卷报告

  • 育娲人口研究发布的中国教育内卷报告,从横向比较和纵向历史来分析。

先生制造:地球边缘的少女

美国国家地理:Got a cold? Here’s how your immune system is fighting it.

外交政策:Was Henry Kissinger Really a Realist?

Women are overmedicated because drug dosage trials are done on men, study finds

  • 大多数非处方药从未在女性身上进行过测试,女性被广泛性的过度用药,并遭受过多的副作用,因为药物剂量是根据对男性受试者进行的大量研究计算得出的。

  • 阅读推荐:《看不见的女性》

NYRB:Becoming European

  • Timothy Garton Ash教授的新书出版。

封面照片:寇德卡《布拉格之春》

Chartbook:In the beginning was Napoleon

  • Adam Tooze教授分析拿破仑战争经济学及其后果。

Merriam-Webster:Word of the Year 2023

播客推荐

WSJ:Artificial:The Dream

  • WSJ播客新出的系列,讲述OpenAI崛起的历史。

视频推荐

Big Think:The chaos inside OpenAI – Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and existential risk explained

  • 非常棒的一期采访,强烈推荐!

TED:Life on the Frontlines of War Reporting

  • 一位老记者讲述自己多年来报道全球各地冲突的经历。

本期推荐音乐:PJ Harvey: Tiny Desk Concert

感谢阅读🙏


如果您对文章感兴趣并想订阅,请尽量选择Gmail、Outlook和Proton等邮箱,国内邮箱可能无法成功发送。如果可以的话请帮我多多转发推荐,再次感谢。

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优质英文播客(1)

By: Stoner
23 November 2023 at 17:53

相信很多朋友平常都听播客,大部分播客是通勤做家务的打发时间利器,这在中文播客中尤为明显,中文播客大多是个人情感抒发和朋友之间的唠嗑。但当我们把视角放到英文届的时候,我们会发现一些硬核播客真的有助于个人打破信息差,优化知识结构,这也算是一种互补吧。本期开始介绍一些我常听的英文硬核播客。

In Our Time

BBC Radio 4 - In Our Time - Podcasts

如果我的手机只能留下一个播客节目,我肯定留下这个节目。这个节目如今已经有了一千多期,从哲学到科学都有涉略,算是学术播客届的常青树,也是BBC全球下载量最大的每周播客。主持人Melvyn Bragg老爷子牛津大学历史学毕业,知识渊博、幽默风趣,经常和教授嘉宾开玩笑。嘉宾来自各个名牌大学的学者教授,专业性极强但讲解不枯燥。比如今年年初讲约翰罗尔斯这期,直接请来了大名鼎鼎的 Wolff 教授,他是《政治哲学》的作者。然后我们来看这期给的reference,是不是随便挑出一本读都比中文世界的五手解读更有收获?

新手包:New to In Our Time? Here are ten great places to start

这是节目自1998年开播以来的列表,包括嘉宾信息,非常详细。

New Books Network

NBN 是一个专业的学术新书访谈网站,几乎囊括了所有专业,嘉宾基本上都是新书作者,在几十分钟时间里,我们能快速了解到作者写此书的动机和问题意识。

New Books Network | Membership

我平常听的最多的是中国研究部分。随便截个图,是不是很有意思,我们可以直接听到扶霞讲美食或者卜正民讲明史最新研究,而这些新书引进翻译到中文要很长一段时间,或者根本无法出版。

NPR系列

NPR(全国公共广播电台)在播客届赫赫有名,在我看来,NPR 出品的播客就没有差劲的。从新闻热点到评论分析,从科技到文化,NPR 的播客无所不包。

我平常听的最多的是ThroughlinePlanet MoneyFresh Air三档节目。

Throughline:历史类,制作精良,音效超级棒,很容易浸入其中。

Planet Money:经济类,一些经济学概念的科普和经济现象的分析。

Fresh Air:内容包罗万象,会请一些大牛来做客,从流行文化讲到社会科技议题。

TL
Planet Money : NPR
FA

如果你自己也想做播客的话,NPR 还有播客制作手册供参考学习。

Sinica

这是一个关于中国议题的播客,Kaiser Kuo是原来唐朝乐队的成员,前百度国际公关负责人,个人风格突出,节目涉及科技、商业、文化、环境等多方面内容。这节目还蛮有名的,很多朋友应该都知道,我就不多介绍了。

Sinica Podcast

Empire

Empire 是历史学家 William DalrympleAnita Anand 主持的播客,这个播客主要讲世界历史上各大帝国的兴衰以及对今天的人们有什么影响。两位历史学家会巧妙地将各种线索串联起来,内容兼具学术性和趣味性,并不是干巴巴复述维基百科或者谈论历史八卦,中文世界根本找不到这种水平的历史学术科普类节目。

Empire | Podcast on Spotify

第一季:大英帝国在印度:东印度公司、1857年印度民族起义、甘地、印巴分治等。

第二季:奥斯曼帝国:君士坦丁堡陷落、苏莱曼大帝、勒班陀战役、亚美尼亚大屠杀等。

第三季:奴隶制:从罗马人与维京人讲到三角贸易和海地革命。

第四季:沙俄帝国:彼得大帝、克里米亚战争、日俄战争、俄国革命等。

第五季:波斯帝国:正在更新中。

如果大家有喜欢的英文播客,欢迎推荐。


如果您对文章感兴趣并想订阅,请尽量选择Gmail、Outlook和Proton等邮箱,国内邮箱可能无法成功发送。如果可以的话请帮我多多转发推荐,再次感谢。

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浅谈独立思考

By: Stoner
19 July 2023 at 16:01

前段时间国内关于新闻学专业的争论吵得沸沸扬扬,其实从现实角度来看,国内大部分院校的新闻学专业确实很水。但是大部分争论都忽略了关键的一点,国内的文科教育(名校除外)基本都是被动灌输式,而不是培养学生主动挖掘知识的能力。而这就引申到一项重要的能力“独立思考”,英文中通常狭义称为critical thinking。本文并不是具体阐述技法(会做一些推荐),而是大致讲讲我对这种能力的思考。(我的这项能力也很菜,需要不断学习和实践。)

什么是独立思考

独立思考并不是与生俱来的,其需要后天教育和培养。按照维基百科的定义,“是对事实、证据、观察结果和论据的分析以形成判断”。独立思考首先要学会质疑,面对这种标准答案,千万不要死记硬背,而是要发出疑问,它是怎么得出的?它在回答什么问题?这个问题还有没有其它答案与解释?另外,还必须要认识到独立思考所遇的障碍,无论是外部的(权威、历史、传统)还是内部的(个人情感、个体经验),这些认知偏误会极大影响独立思考。据我观察,判断一个人有无基本的独立思考能力还有一个重要标准:区分事实(Fact)和观点(Opinion)。

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事实:“太阳从东方升起” “我是独生子”

观点:“相信老祖宗的智慧,中医比西医好” “芒果奶茶最好喝”

为什么要独立思考

要想理解为什么我们拥有某物,通常情况下,一个很好的策略就是考虑没有它会怎样。那么,如果我们没有独立思考能力,我们会怎样呢?我们会迷信权威,很容易被别人的说辞洗脑;我们会掉入信息茧房中,每天在垃圾信息中徘徊却不自知。而这一切的后果就是我们失去了自身的判断力,任人割韭菜了。

经典案例威尔逊·爱德华兹虚假新闻事件

如何独立思考

这是我本文的重点,学得并实践这种能力并不容易。我将自己日常的方法大致分为以下几种:

1.优质信息源

接收到一个信息时,首先要查找源头,这个信息是真的吗?它是哪个机构发布的?还是转发的?这个机构是官方媒体还是市场媒体? 这个信息或报道有没有经过多方查核和交叉验证?除了事实核查能力,自己也应该学会寻找优质信息源,下面是我的简单推荐:

官方渠道:各大政府或官方机构网站(e.g. 中国国家统计局美联储UNESCO

  • 注意:官方数据也会造假,懂得都懂。

市场渠道:

1.数据库(e.g. JstorStatistaOur world in data)

  • 多看英文数据库,少看中国知网这种。

2.智库(e.g. BrookingsHoover institutionPew Research Center

  • 每个智库背后都有金主,并有着不同的意识形态和诉求,不能盲目阅读。

3.市场化专业媒体(e.g. The New York TimesThe EconomistThe Atlantic

  • 市场化媒体都有自身的议程设置和意识形态倾向,这一点在美国这种媒体自由化高度发达的国家尤为如此,可搜索“media bias chart”进行了解。

  • 如果使用chrome或者edge浏览器,可以下载Nobias插件,可以快速了解到一家媒体、甚至某篇文章的倾向性、可信度。

4.优质公众号(分为专业媒体公众号和自媒体公众号,下面是我常看的一些公号:)

  • 科普类:果壳、知识分子、量子学派、回形针(已被封)、大象公会(已被封)

  • 商业财经类:智本社、财经十一人、虎嗅、36氪、晚点

  • 人文历史类:信睿周报、小鸟与好奇心、东方历史评论(已被封)

  • 科技前沿类:新智元、量子位、硅星人、机器之心

  • 非虚构报道类:真实故事计划、正面连接、谷雨实验室

  • 书评类:新京报书评周刊、上海书评、读书杂志、燕京书评

5.播客(现在大媒体会用播客形式进行事实报道,如纽约时报的the daily,其它大部分播客只是对一个热点或现象进行具体分析。)

2.高质量的论证

无论在日常生活中还是学习中,我们都会遇到形形色色的观点,每个高质量的观点都有自己的论证结构。我们以社科硬核书来举例,作者会提出一个或多个命题,而每个命题背后都会回答一个或多个问题(这叫问题意识,今后可以具体谈谈);每个命题(作者的论点)都需要论据来支撑,这个结构化的过程就是论证,学会论证的套路和方法,将有益于我们独立思考。演讲或者写作的本质就是说服别人或者激发思考,所以拆解这个套路有三部曲:

  1. 论证的结构是什么?

  2. 论证的质量怎么样?

  3. 如果质量不佳,换作是我该怎么提高论证的质量?

我这里主要讲如何评判论证的质量。有一个评价论证好坏的工具—ARG,指的是可接受性、相关性和充分性。一个论证必须同时满足了这三个标准,这个论证才是高质量的。

  • 可接受性(acceptability): 理由是可以被相信、被接受的。那么什么是可接受呢?

理由是客观的事实信息,应确保真实可信,比如:特朗普是总统。

理由是主观的观点,那应该是具有普遍共识的常识,或者得到专业领域内认可的专家研究。比如:特朗普是糟糕的总统。

错误案例:自由不能当饭吃。

  • 相关性(relevance): 论点和论据之间必须存在关联。

举例:“如果没有中医,你祖宗十八代都死绝了。”

分析:中医和老祖宗寿命长并没有必要的联系,个案或者小样本也根本不能成为证据,那我还可以说,没有中医的话,老祖宗要是用上现代医学能多活好多年。

  • 充分性(good ground): 论据要尽可能全面,考虑到多种情况,这里就不举例了。

3.要有好的外部环境

在一个崇尚理性和法律的文明社会中,独立思考是被推崇的良好品质,而在一个以人情世故为主要运转机制的社会中,独立思考是被压抑和稀缺的。因此,有一个营养更均衡、信息质量更高的外部环境非常重要。没有的话怎么办,我也不知道,因为我也在其中,如果目前出不去,国内一线城市可能好一点。

其它

推荐一些文章和书籍,关于具体的思考技法:

徐贲《明亮的对话》

奥萨·维克福什《另类事实

David Kelley《The Art of Reasoning》

塔勒布的书和文章

关于认知偏误的medium文章

思方网:Critical thinking web

Coursera课程:Introduction to Logic and Critical Thinking Specialization

🙏感谢您的阅读,如果不满意您可以退订(怕给您的邮箱添乱);如果觉得我写得还行请帮我多多转发,再次感谢。

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政治学习简明指南(扩展包)

By: wuyagege
18 November 2023 at 04:55

政治学习简明指南》发出后收到了很多评论,感谢您的每一份建议和分享~

这篇扩展包是给邮件订阅读者。因为邮件推送里不包含评论,而上篇文章的评论区里有一些优质资源值得收藏。

扩展包

Cheyenne 分享《政治学通识》相关书目

我分享我在豆列做的一个书单,是包刚升教授在《政治学通识》里的所有附录书籍

https://www.douban.com/doulist/152737878/

里面的书基本上有部分实体都很难找到了,翻翻电子版就应该还有,更适合英语能力不咋滴但是又想了解这方面的兄弟姐妹吧。

Jeff 分享了The University of Glasgow 中国政治、国际关系课程文献清单

推荐两个书单,一个是有关中国政治的,来自我的supervisor。https://rl.talis.com/3/glasgow/lists/6478D333-EF34-08E8-DBEA-3E81C17FC56C.html?lang=en

另一个是我之前上课时的书单,主要是国际关系理论。https://rl.talis.com/3/glasgow/lists/1088CAD3-BD77-68FC-3537-ADB5606DA1BF.html?lang=en

Corey 分享了剑桥大学政治学-国际关系本科课程:

今年年初我整理了一份剑桥政治与国际研究系的本科生课纲,一共二十多门课,现代国家、国际冲突、国际组织、比较政治学、政治学研究方法、思想史、性别、宗教等都有涉及。列出的文献过于详细专业,适合专业人士,我反正功力不够:

https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Undergrad/Current/Part1

https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/files/lecturelist061123.pdf

我整理的合集:https://1drv.ms/f/s!Arj3el6XbhdOg0FcqfWoIZ4I8lLv?e=xTdhya

政治哲学入门

Corey 还分享了一份政治哲学入门:

1.任何学科入门都可以先去Crash Course看看。

https://youtube.com/@crashcourse?si=CXjXI0Zm5DpflWla

2.耶鲁大学Shapiro老师的公开课。

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNeyViG2ar68jkgEi4y6doNZy&si=yKu409cyWuVJiP15

3.乌鸦哥主要推荐的是政治科学,我想推荐本政治哲学的书,Wolff教授的《政治哲学》,将各个概念线索连结得非常好,入门神作,中信出了中译本。

https://m.douban.com/book/subject/33436180/

4.三土老师当年的《当代西方政治哲学研究》课程大纲。

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JE_eDnry8Fxh-gpOxrhRUg

谷歌云盘:https://drive.google.com/drive/mobile/folders/1Uguv49okOMKb-qC5TTFgJcub-20AeCBF

5.特别提醒:罗斯金和海伍德的那两本中文版阉割严重,新版相较旧版再次阉割,看了中文版等于没看,所以朋友们去看英文版吧,英文教科书比起专著来说更好读,没有那么多生词和长难句,入门先搞清楚每章的大问题就可以了,细节满满补。

专栏推荐

Corey 的 Substack 专栏:

网中的太阳

“本周碎碎念”系列每期必看,推荐给大家订阅。

政治学习简明指南

By: wuyagege
17 November 2023 at 04:01

亲爱的读者周五好,捷克系列稍后更新,这周先更一篇自学指南,事关每位现代公民都无法逃避的领域:政治。

自学指南系列:

外语学习简明指南

历史学习简明指南

防骗指南

政治学入门

有人的地方就有政治,政治无非“众人之事”。每位公民都需要一些简单的政治常识。

政治常识可以通过生活中观察人类社会来自己总结,也可以靠大量阅读来学习。边读书,边阅世,互相映照,效率加倍。

学院里很多学科涉及政治:法学、政治学、社会学、经济学、历史学、人类学、哲学与神学等。

第二次世界大战后,专门研究人类政治行为的现代学科——政治科学 Political Science 在欧美(尤其是美国)迅速发展,遍及每所大学,政治学书籍批量进入大众阅读市场。

同一时期,1952年中国学习苏联进行“高等院校调整”,取消了政治学的生存资格,一晃三十年。

改革开放后政治学缓慢恢复,北大、复旦等高校进行政治学的“学科重建”,随后诞生了首批国产政治学家

2000年后中西交往密切,才翻译出版了一些面向普通读者和大学生、摆脱意识形态窠臼的新一代政治学入门书籍。广为人知的入门三书:

罗斯金等《政治科学》,翻译自英文版 Michael G. Roskin, Political Science: An Introduction

海伍德:《政治学》,翻译自英文版 Andrew Heywood : Politics

包刚升的《政治学通识

三选一就可以,不用都看。这三本书的区别:

罗斯金的书美国大学用得多,海伍德的书英国学生用得多;包刚升那本是他在复旦大学的课程讲义,也许更适合中国宝宝体质。

这三本书都提供现代公民应该了解的政治常识。章节末尾都有推荐书目,可以循此线索继续读书,包刚升列的推荐书目尤其新手友好,以中文书为主。

政治学有三个大的分支学科:比较政治学、政治理论和国际关系。也有一些入门书籍。

罗斯金:《国家的常识:政权·地理·文化》,Countries and Concepts 美国普通高校里较为常见的比较政治学入门书(这本书从方法论到知识都稍显陈旧,但仍是中国读者入门不二之选)

麦克米兰:《西方政治思想史》,英美普通高校常用的政治理论/政治思想史入门教科书。

(国际关系是重灾区,我不知道有什么合格的中文入门书,《牛津国际关系手册》很棒,但绝对不适合新手。您如果知道,请留言推荐)

读完三两本书,如果你发现,自己对政治学有着极为强烈的兴趣,必须要在这条路上进一步探索,怎么办?

最好的办法就是找间大学入读,念政治学本科(开玩笑

毕竟不是人人都有机会读大学;而且有些国家的大学受到专制制度影响的程度越来越深,那里的政治学也许念了还不如不念。

让我们继续自学吧。

政治学进阶

自学不是瞎学,最好建立系统的学习计划,去哪里寻找靠谱的学习计划?

欧美顶尖大学的教育质量普遍得到认可,他们给本科生的教学大纲大约是最好的自学指南。

QS 2023 年度政治学专业全球排名前五:哈佛、牛津、巴黎政治、伦敦政经、斯坦福。让我们去他们官网好好挖掘一下,看看有没有教学大纲。

于是我们很轻松地找到了 伦敦政经 LSE 本科政治学的教学大纲。(链接:LSE BSc Politics)。

再往下挖一挖,我们就能找到政治学本科课程列表(链接:LSE 政治学本科课程列表)。

政治学本科三年,需要修满12个课程模块(Units)

  • 第一年四门课:全校通选课 LSE 100、政治理论入门、政治科学入门、跨专业课一门

  • 第二年四门课:从 Government List A里选择四门

  • 第三年 四门课:主要从 Government List B 里选择四门

更美妙的是,列表中的每个数字编目都可以点开查看详情,其中包括任课老师、课程概要,以及……最重要的:本课推荐书目。

GV100 政治理论入门 Introduction to Political Theory

Paul Kelly教授要求学生读关键思想家的关键著作,和他自己写的政治思想史:

D. Boucher and P. Kelly, Political Thinkers: From Socrates to the Present (Oxford 2017);

GV101 政治科学入门 Introduction to Political Science

必读书目:

  • W Clark, M Golder and S Nadenichek Golder, Foundations of Comparative Politics, Sage, 2019.

  • A Lijphart, Patterns of Government: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries, 2nd ed., Yale University Press, 2012.

  • G. Tsebelis, Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work, Princeton University Press, 2002.

第一本是比较政治学教材;第二本比较政治学经典《民主的模式:36个国家的政府形式和政府绩效》;第三本是 Tsebelis 的神书 Veto Players(台湾译本《否决者论:制度如何运作》 感谢 @千古事 在评论区的提醒)

GV245 民主和民主化 Democracy and Democratisation

Francisco Panizza教授要求学生必须阅读前两本,后三本选读:

  • J. Grugel and M. L. Bishop (2016) Democratization: A Critical Introduction;

  • S. Noakes and C. Wilson (2023) Democratization. A Thematic Approach.

  • L. Whitehead (2002) Democratization.

  • S. Levitsky D. Ziblatt (2018) How Democracies Die; (台湾有译本

  • Donatella Della Porta (2013) Can Democracy be Saved?

这五本书中国都没有翻译,我强烈推荐第一本,非常棒的民主与民主化入门书。

学无止境

如果我们继续挖,可以找到 LSE 全校本科课程列表(链接:伦敦政经所有本科课程列表),它不仅可以用来学政治学,还能指导我们学历史学、人类学、国际关系……

比如 HY 那一列是历史学,HY242 是苏联史大家祖博克教授的课,他开出了一份详尽的苏联史书单。HY335 是殷晴飞主讲的中国外交史。

比如IR 是国际关系, IR100 提供了国际关系入门书目,IR313 如何对待中国在东亚的崛起?

我此前在推特上说过,每个大学官网都是一座宝库,只要你愿意挖掘,总能找到很多学习资源。像伦敦政经这样把教学系统公开晾在网络上的学校还有很多很多,感谢他们的慷慨!

互联网对所有人敞开大门,它推倒一切求知门槛。无论身在非洲的茅草屋,印度的贫民窟、中国的农村; 还是身在剑桥、波斯顿和海德堡, 只要有足够的好奇心去不断发掘,你可以追上世界前沿的教学动态;只要学会英语这个全球思想的交流工具,人类千年积累的知识库存都对你敞开大门,予取予求。

当然自学有局限性,比如很难找到师友答疑解惑,比如课堂讨论才是大学教育的精华;但你也没给 LSE 缴纳每年3万英镑的学费对吧?

自学更大的障碍在于自己:是否真的求知若渴,是否自律,有无雄心。阻止我们前进的只有我们自己。

理解中国政治

按照相同的思路,你可以去找找哪些大学教授中国政治。

比如我找到了 George T. Crane 今年在 威廉姆斯学院的课程 当代中国政治

Image

他给出的书目很精要:

China Under Mao 回顾前三十年(有中译本:《脱轨的革命:毛泽东时代的中国》)

Never Turn Back 回顾充满张力的80年代

The Dictator’s Dilemma 关注党权

China's Crony Capitalism 关注权贵

Outsourcing Repression 关注权力的基层渗透

Mobilizing without the Masses 关注政治社会关系

Contesting Cyberspace in China 关注网络管控

Rightful Resistance in Rural China关注农村

Betraying Big Brother 关注女权运动

感谢 Crane 教授的分享。

(思考题:这个书单还缺了哪几本好书?)

最后做一下技术总结

1,欧美大学的官网都是宝藏

2,学好英语,用英语学习

3,学无止境,各自努力

Thanks for reading 不如读书! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

用英语阅读中国

By: wuyagege
24 October 2023 at 04:17

亲爱的读者周一好~这周聊一下用英语阅读中国。

学英文是为了了解中国

只读简体中文已经不够了。

中国的审查制度是一道不公正的滤网,给你他们想让你看的,不给你他们不想让你看的。

只读简中就像只用一只眼睛看世界:一只眼确实能看世界,但你会失去立体视觉。

不读英语也可以理解中国,但读英语可以帮助我们建立更立体的视野。

越来越多的人意识到了这一问题:“学英文是为了了解中国”。

读英文新闻

阅读当然从新闻开始,因为新闻最重要。

我的旧文章《防骗指南》里曾把新闻比喻为饮用水,它是当代生活的必需品;而新闻审查制度就是持续对水源投毒。再正常的人类长期喝这样的水,也难免“变异”。

英文媒体包罗万象。

民主意味着(一定程度的)媒体自由,大小媒体在信息市场上自由竞争,争夺受众有限的注意力,而互联网和社交媒体进一步放大了极端的声音。

从简中的井底跳出来,很容易迷失在庞大的英文资讯海洋。

因此新手贵精不贵多,可以精选一家高可信度、有严格编审制度的顶级媒体作为早餐咖啡伴侣 or 睡前读物。这家媒体最好长期关注中国事务,有一支专业报道中国的团队。

The Media Bias Chart 长期追踪英文媒体的意识形态倾向和可信度,官网定期更新,而且可以放大查看。左右是媒体的意识形态倾向,从高到低可信度梯度下降。请选择最上方第一梯队的媒体。

美联社 AP、法新社 AFP、路透社 Reuters、BBC、彭博社 Bloomberg、金融时报 FT、华尔街日报 WSJ 的中国报道较为全面。部分媒体需要付费订阅,请根据个人经济状况和意识形态倾向对比选择。

比如我订阅了 WSJ 作为每日必读媒体。因为我的意识形态偏向 liberal(民主党),而 WSJ 是一家中间偏保守的媒体。阅读 WSJ 可以保证我能听到不同的声音,消除自己的视野盲区。 WSJ 另一个优点是有一支卓越的中国报道团队,他们甚至运营中文网站,把少量文章翻译成中文。

Update:英文报纸的 opinion 版面和 News 版遵循不同的编辑原则,在客观性和意识形态上会有较大差异,比如 WSJ News 偏中立客观,Opinion 相当保守。

一家媒体的英文版和中文版可能有编辑原则和新闻质量的重大差异,比如 VOA 英文版是一家高品质媒体,中文版文章就相对混杂一些。

感谢 Sam 和 Gabriel 在留言区的提醒。

订阅 NEWSLETTERS

新闻的进阶玩法是邮箱订阅。

通过订阅多家媒体/智库的中国主题邮箱推送,定期查收邮件就可以掌握关键信息,效率很高。下面分享我订阅的 Newsletters,您如果有更好的推荐,请留言~

China Brief

由 Foreign Policy 出品, James Palmer 主编,主要关注中国外交事务,每周更新一次。Palmer 视角稳重,写作用心。订阅邮件免费,但 Foreign Policy 本身有付费墙。

NEXT CHINA

彭博社 Bloomberg 出品,主要关注中国经济和商业,每周更新一次。邮件本身免费,但 Bloomberg 本身有付费墙。

Axios China

Bethany 貝書穎主编,她视角独特,非常关注中国影响力的全球扩张,邮件写得极其用心。她今年出版的新书 Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World 收到广泛好评。

China's Global Sharp Power Weekly Alert

胡佛研究所出品,每周更新一次。顾名思义,它关心的是中国的 Sharp Power. 编辑挑选当周最值得阅读的文章和报告做成列表推荐给大家。

Watching China in Europe

德国马歇尔基金会出品,Noah Barkin主编,每月更新一次,主要关注欧洲与中国关系。

读学术期刊

如果你需要比新闻更深度一些的阅读,可以选择读学术期刊。

以下是研究中国的英文学术刊物:

有趣的是,这些刊物一半的投稿人是中国学者。他们用中文发言谨小慎微,用英文发表学术论文往往更大胆。(参考阅读:专访当代中国研究知名学刊《中国季刊》主编:“未来面对的最大挑战是学术自由”

如果你生活在国外,本城的公共图书馆(纸质or数据库)大概率能找到其中的一两本,《中国季刊》尤其常见。

如果生活在中国,获取学术期刊确实有些困难,只有部分大学订阅包含这些期刊的数据库。不过这些期刊的官网可能有些过刊或部分文章免费开放;另外也有一些“非常规”手段去获得数字期刊,这里不介绍。

读英文书

如果热爱求知,那迟早要走上读英文书这一步。指望台版书也太不可行,台湾的出版市场太小,每年译书量有限。

好在读书这件事就是越读越熟练,前几本可能啃得困难,撑过去就是另一番天地。

如何挑选英文书?

China Book Review

一个刚刚上线的网络刊物,定期推荐中国主题相关的虚构/非虚构图书。

GoodReads

类似豆瓣图书的存在,可以标记已读、待读图书,可以看一本书的评分和评论,相关推荐可以找到大量图书。

学术刊物上的书评板块、你所订阅的英文媒体的书评版都会给你种草新书。

最后你会发现挑书根本不成问题,找书的速度肯定大于读书的速度,书单堆积如山才是真头疼……

写在最后

走出自己的母语,用英语来读新闻、读书、读论文,这一跨越语言鸿沟的过程充满坎坷,对谁来说都不是一件容易的事情。

可是又有什么办法呢?

中国严苛的出版审查制度逼迫每一个热爱知识的人必须一步步扔掉中文这个拐杖,去习惯阅读外语。

拄着拐杖是走不远的,扔掉它才能拥抱自由。

时代的无奈,也是时代的机遇。当你一步步习惯了英语阅读、英语思考甚至是英语写作……欢迎来到一个更广阔自由的世界。

X 上的ISHU 𝕏 RAJPUT:「"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good  things ever dies" ~Andy Dufresne (The Shawshank Redemption)  https://t.co/7ChWM0mcV0」 / X

最后祝大家阅读愉快~

如果喜欢《不如读书》专栏,请推荐给家人朋友订阅,感谢!

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China’s enormous surveillance state is still growing

16 December 2023 at 10:29
China | Eyes everywhere

Its citizens don’t seem to mind

image: Reuters

The sleepy county of Kaijiang, on the eastern fringes of Sichuan province, is hardly a hotbed of unrest. The authorities there seem intent on keeping it that way. They are hoping to upgrade the county’s portion of China’s “Skynet” surveillance system. According to a procurement notice from August, officials in Kaijiang want cameras that “support detection of more than 60 faces simultaneously”. The local system should be fast enough to analyse up to 100 faces per second and have the capacity to store up to 1.8bn images (Kaijiang has a population of 410,000). There must be “no blind spots”, says the document.

Officials argue that such measures protect the public. China’s abundance of CCTV cameras, many equipped with facial-recognition technology, “leave criminals with nowhere to hide”, boasts the People’s Daily, a Communist Party mouthpiece. Chinese people report feeling safe from violent crime, so there is merit to these claims. But the cameras also protect the party. Dissidents and demonstrators can be tracked as easily as burglars. Step out of line and the government will probably know.

Measuring the size and growth of China’s surveillance state is hard, owing to the government’s secrecy, but analysts are trying. A team led by Martin Beraja of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology collected 3m public-sector procurement contracts issued between 2013 and 2019. Using their data, we tallied up the number of surveillance cameras bought by the authorities in 139 cities. Data are missing for some important places, such as the regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, where CCTV cameras are ubiquitous. That helps explain why there were only 8.5m surveillance cameras in the contracts. The People’s Daily, in 2017, said Skynet had 20m cameras. Others have put the number in the hundreds of millions.

image: The Economist

As big as it already is, China’s surveillance network appears to be growing. ChinaFile, an online magazine published by the Asia Society, a think-tank in New York, has gathered tenders issued by the Chinese government. They provided us with ones that included the word “Skynet” or “surveillance”. The number of tenders that mentioned either term spiked between 2010 and 2017. The pace slowed during the covid-19 pandemic, but has since picked up again (see chart).

Surveillance in China is not limited to cameras. A wide range of activities, from buying train tickets and SIM cards to hailing a DiDi (China’s version of Uber), require citizens to use their identity cards—and, therefore, make them susceptible to tracking. A state ID is also required to sign up for WeChat, the messaging app used by nearly everyone and which is policed by the authorities. During the pandemic, state surveillance rose to a whole new level, with citizens required to download an app that tracked and restricted their movements. Though it was meant to curb the spread of covid, the app was used by authorities in the city of Zhengzhou to stop protesters from assembling.

Many places in the West are also studded with surveillance cameras, while private firms track the virtual movements of app users. But Westerners tend to view these things with more suspicion than the Chinese. In fact, the Chinese public appears to be broadly supportive of government monitoring. A survey of 3,000 people in 2018 found that 82% favoured CCTV surveillance. Even state snooping on emails and internet usage received 61% support.

It may be that Chinese people are basing their views on incomplete information. The government censors news, such as the story from Zhengzhou, that might cast its surveillance efforts in a negative light. A study from 2022 found that when university students were told about surveillance being used for political repression, support for it declined. The pandemic and the state’s draconian covid controls may have also soured the public’s mood towards monitoring.

The government, meanwhile, is pushing ahead. On top of cameras, it has deployed phone-tracking devices and is collecting voice prints from the public. If support for such intrusiveness has dimmed, the state will have little trouble finding those who speak out against it.

Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline "Eyes everywhere"

Climate report: Some progress, must try harder

From the November 25th 2023 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

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"中国民间档案馆"上线 纪录当局企图隐藏的史实

16 December 2023 at 06:42

近日,“中国民间档案馆”网站(minjian-danganguan.org)在美国上线,该网站致力于向公众提供遭到中国当局屏蔽的敏感史料。本周五,“中国民间档案馆”馆长张彦(Ian Johnson)接受了本台专访。

“中国民间档案馆”网站在近期上线,这个网站希望能讲述中国一般民众所不知道的故事 – 被北京当局掩盖的重大历史。网站上所提供的史料,包含了大跃进所引发的饥荒、文化大革命的暴力清洗与权力斗争、1989年六四事件在天安门广场的屠杀等等。

“档案馆”透过提供电影、期刊、书籍等资料,让希望探询历史真相的中国民众能透过翻墙软件浏览网页,获取大量、整理过的系统性信息。

张彦:希望提供中国民间史学的研究动力

12月15日,本台记者专访了“中国民间档案馆”馆长、普利策新闻奖得主张彦(Ian Johnson) 。

他谈到,创立“中国民间档案馆”的原因是希望让中国民众能获取更多被封闭的历史资料:“中国民众有时候想要找更多资讯时会遇到困难,像是有人送你一本书,但你要找到其他类似主题的书就会很困难,所以我们希望能创建一个清楚的资料库,这样人们想要做相关研究时就会很有帮助。”

张彦补充表示:“我们想提供资讯流动的价值……。我们的目标是,让一般民众以及在民间的史学家有一个可以做研究的地方。”

张彦指出,目前“中国民间档案馆”已经在中国的互联网上遭到屏蔽,中国民众只能通过使用翻墙软件才能读取相关内容:“这不让我惊讶,我们本来就预期会有这样的结果。在网站上架时,中国政府所使用的软件便能立刻侦测到网页上的敏感字词,像是文化大革命、饥荒、天安门等等。所以我们的目标不是直接触及中国的14亿人口,我们希望触及想要做研究并撰写中国历史的人。虽然这些人为数不多,但长期而言,他们会非常有影响力。”

"中国民间档案馆"馆长、普利策新闻奖得主张彦(Ian Johnson)(蔡耀征摄影)
"中国民间档案馆"馆长、普利策新闻奖得主张彦(Ian Johnson)(蔡耀征摄影)

张彦:希望能让"中国人讲中国故事"

与此同时,张彦指出,“中国民间档案馆”提供的史料主要源自中国作家及历史学者对事实的描述,希望能提供一个“中国人讲中国故事”的平台。

他表示:“虽然中国民间档案馆’有75%、80%的目的是帮助中国民众做研究,但是20%也是想告诉其他国家的人们,其实有很多中国人也在自己发掘历史。”

“中国民间档案馆”的史料目前仍旧在不断上传与更新,相关文件涵盖了1949年以前的中国共产党历史,并延续到2022年当局解除新冠清零政策之后。

记者:唐缘媛    责编:何平    网编:洪伟

💾

© "中国民间档案馆"官网截图

"中国民间档案馆"网站陈列的部分文集

照护志愿者自述:我记忆中高耀洁的最后日子——享誉世界的英雄,平凡弱势的老人

By: victoriaj
12 December 2023 at 20:36
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照护志愿者自述:我记忆中高耀洁的最后日子——享誉世界的英雄,平凡弱势的老人

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“抗艾斗士”高耀洁逝世,曾揭露河南艾滋病感染

By: 储百亮
11 December 2023 at 03:12

简繁中文
纽约时报 出版语言
字体大小

“抗艾斗士”高耀洁逝世,曾揭露河南艾滋病感染

储百亮
2006年,高耀洁在上海举办的艾滋病巡回讲座期间与学生交谈。
2006年,高耀洁在上海举办的艾滋病巡回讲座期间与学生交谈。 Mark Ralston/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
中国医生高耀洁于周日在曼哈顿上城的家中去世,享年95岁。她曾不顾政府压力揭露因混乱无序的采血活动而导致的农村艾滋病疫情。
哥伦比亚大学研究中国政治的学者黎安友(Andrew J. Nathan)教授证实了她的死讯,他曾帮她处理在美国的事务。
上世纪90年代末,高耀洁不遗余力地揭露和遏制艾滋病在贫困农民中的蔓延,这为她在中国赢得声望,她在国外也广受赞誉;奥巴马执政期间,她受到了国务卿希拉里·克林顿的赞扬。但共产党官员最终试图让高耀洁保持沉默,她在纽约度过了人生的最后十年。
即使流亡在外,健康状况不佳,她仍继续为数百个村庄发声,尤其是在她的家乡——中国中部的河南省,那里的居民成群结队地前往采血站卖血,而采血站粗劣的采血方法,导致数万乃至可能更多的人死于艾滋病。
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官员长期隐瞒、忽视或淡化疫情,受感染的村民几乎没有得到任何帮助,直到高耀洁和其他几位中国医生及专家激起的公愤促使政府开始分发药物。
“艾滋病的流行与蔓延,毁灭的不仅是患者个人,还殃及无数家庭,”高耀洁在2016年接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“这种人为大灾难,前所未有。然而,造成这场血祸的责任人,至今没有一个受到追究的,也没有一句道歉的话。”
高耀洁在年近70岁的时候开始了自己的第二职业——艾滋病教育工作者,当时她已经退休,不再从事日常的医学工作。但此前的经历给她的锤炼让她可以坚强地面对接下来的艰辛。
高耀洁于1927年12月19日出生于东部的山东省。她在日本侵华战争和内战期间长大——在毛泽东的领导下,共产党通过内战取得了政权。她经历了上世纪50年代末毛泽东的政策造成的饥荒,在他发动的文化大革命期间,她遭受了拘禁和殴打。后来,当她因指控官员隐瞒艾滋病疫情而被软禁,面对警察和政府官员的压力时,她说自己经历过比这更糟糕的事情。
“她的生活中经历了很多起伏,所有的逆境都考验着她的灵魂,”前香港投资银行家、智行基金会创始人杜聪(Chung To)说。该基金会旨在帮助中国农村孤儿或受艾滋病影响的儿童。“如果没有她,疫情暴发的消息可能会被掩盖更久,会有更多人死去。”
医学专家王淑平在揭露中国农村艾滋病传播方面也发挥了重要作用,2012年,她在谈到高耀洁时说:“她最大的贡献是赢得了新闻媒体的关注。地方政府想掩盖很多事情,但他们做不到,因为高耀洁很勇敢,一直在说话。”王淑平也移居美国,于2019年去世
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身材矮小、笑声爽朗的高耀洁走路一瘸一拐,但这并不仅是因为年事已高。她出生在一个相对富裕的地主家庭,小时候双脚用布条裹了六年,这是一种令人痛苦的中国传统习俗,目的是人为制造出小巧的双脚。
她和家人定居在河南古城开封,她很快就表现出独立的性格,选择在当地一所大学学习医学。她于1953年毕业,不久后结婚,成为一名妇科医生。
2016年,高耀洁在纽约曼哈顿的公寓。“如果不拉下毛泽东的神位,中国就没有希望,”她说。
2016年,高耀洁在纽约曼哈顿的公寓。“如果不拉下毛泽东的神位,中国就没有希望,”她说。 George Etheredge for The New York Times
河南省是1958年后受饥荒影响最严重的地区之一。1966年“文革”期间,该省爆发了激烈的武斗。由于高耀洁出生于“地主”家庭而且拒绝屈服,她成了毛派激进分子的重点目标,遭到他们的毒打。她说,由于被迫在冰冷的石头上跪了几个小时,她的膝盖从此落下毛病。
高耀洁一度试图自杀。她最小的儿子在13岁那年因被诬陷侮辱毛泽东被监禁了三年。由于在那段时期承受过的痛苦以及自那以后与儿子关系长久不和,她对毛泽东的功过是非评价非常负面。
“如果不拉下毛泽东的神位,中国就没有希望,去毒要把这个老根挖出来,”她在2015年对一位采访者表示。
1996年,在全国各地倡导女性健康的高耀洁首次接触到一名被诊断出艾滋病的患者,那是一名在手术中因输血而感染的中国农村妇女。她在大约两周后死亡。
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高耀洁开始亲自走访村民家里,调查艾滋病是如何进入河南的。
她和其他医务人员发现,大量黑心血站正在向村民购买血液,其采血方法几乎肯定会导致感染的传播,而这些血站通常都有官方的支持。血站从村民血液中提取有用的血浆,把剩下的血液汇集起来重新输回需要输血的村民体内。事实证明,大量汇集血液非常易于传染病的传播,包括导致艾滋病的HIV病毒。
1995年,河南官员试图取缔这种行为。但黑血市场依然存在,高耀洁呼吁关闭血站,治疗被感染的村民,并对官员问责。
她经常和司机从河南省会郑州的家中出发,长途奔波数日,为患病村民提供建议、食物和衣服,并带去治疗发烧、腹泻和其他艾滋病症状的基本药物。她回忆称,在一个村庄里,她见到了一名在丈夫死于艾滋病后上吊自杀的妇女。两岁的儿子紧紧抱着母亲的脚。
“高耀洁非常重要,因为她看到了村里发生的事情,也一直在为此发声,”来自河南的前记者张继承在采访中说,他是最早报道了河南艾滋病疫情的人之一。“很多人不理解她为什么这么做,但她经历了太多,所以一点也不怕。”
到2000年代初,中国农村的艾滋之祸已成为国际丑闻,国内外的愤怒令中国官员令无法再淡化此事。中国活动人士和记者都大力支持高耀洁,她在中国新闻媒体上赢得了一定赞誉,并受到官方的欢迎,一度得到副总理吴仪的接见。
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但高耀洁声名日益远播让其他中国官员感到不安,这些人认为她令他们难堪,特别是当她拒绝停止自己的倡议时。2007年,河南官员曾试图阻止她前往美国领奖,但遭到了副总理吴仪的驳斥。
2009年,高耀洁移居美国,开始用演讲和写书来讲述自己的经历。她对推广避孕套以防止HIV病毒和其他性传播疾病的感染持怀疑态度,这让许多艾滋病专家感到不满。
但由于她德高望重,即便是在预防艾滋病问题上批评她的人也对她怀有敬意。
她的丈夫、同为医生的郭明久于2006年去世。高耀洁身后留下两个女儿郭竞先和郭炎光;儿子郭锄非;妹妹高鸣凤;三个孙辈;还有生活在中国的三个弟弟和另一个妹妹。
生命的尾声,高耀洁住在西哈莱姆区的一处公寓里,有一群中国学生陪伴她并对她的著作进行编辑。她再也没有回河南,但她说过希望自己的骨灰被带回那里,撒入黄河。

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【图说天朝】美食博主王刚:作为厨师,以后再也不做蛋炒饭

28 November 2023 at 00:40

更新:11月27日晚,王刚发布道歉声明,称“作为厨师,以后再也不做蛋炒饭,也不拍蛋炒饭视频”。(视频已在墙内遭删除)

11月27日,中国知名的美食博主王刚在个人平台(含微博、B站等)发布了一则“蛋炒饭”视频,而该视频被一些网民集体指责临近毛岸英忌日“用蛋炒饭侮辱英烈”,随后王刚将视频删除。

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目前,王刚的微博、B站等平台最新视频评论区已出现大量攻击内容。但令人疑惑的是,11月27日其实已是毛岸英忌日(11月25日)的两天后。

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王刚,四川省自贡市富顺县人,中国厨师、博客作者、UP主、YouTuber、网络名人,网名“美食作家王刚”,又称“厨师长王刚”,因拍摄视频到网络上教导烹饪,大获网友好评,现已经有千万追随者。(维基百科)

(延伸阅读)知名YouTuber罗杰叔叔(@mrnigelng)曾在一支视频中吐槽BBC饮食频道主持赫尔沙·帕特尔煮饭方法,之后他又在另一视频中盛赞王刚的蛋炒饭才是“正确的打开方式”,值得英国厨师学习。

这已不是王刚首次因发蛋炒饭视频引争议。2018年10月22日王刚发布了一则“蛋炒饭家常做法”的视频,人民日报官方微博于24日进行了转发。但10月24日这天恰巧为毛泽东之子毛岸英的冥诞日,不少小粉红认为人民日报系“别有用心”,是刻意转发王刚视频暗讽毛岸英的“蛋炒饭死因”。

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注:2019年11月25日,人民日报又在微博分享了“蒸水蛋”菜谱视频,而这一天又刚好是毛岸英的忌日。【立此存照】巧合?人民日报蛋炒饭节发蒸蛋,爱国网友怒了

2020年10月24日,王刚在毛岸英冥诞日这天上传了一段扬州炒饭视频,评论区有人被指控他“故意在今天发蛋炒饭”,对此王刚本人表示相当无辜,并做出了公开道歉。

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直至今年王刚再度发布蛋炒饭视频,而这已经是他第三次被指控“侮辱英烈”,但从这三起案例的时间点来看,难以得出王刚是“有意为之”的结论。

中国数字时代在《【CDT百科】“蛋炒饭节”是什么梗?为什么一年可以过多次?》一文中解释了为何中国已经有至少两个“蛋炒饭节”,这是因为毛岸英(毛泽东之子)曾被传出是死于生火烹饪蛋炒饭暴露目标(遭空袭死于朝鲜战场)。之后,有网民在毛岸英忌日吃蛋炒饭以示庆祝,并称这一天为“蛋炒饭节”、“中国感恩节”,认为“毛岸英之死避免了中国成为毛氏世袭王朝的可能”,感谢历史的偶然让中国没有彻底沦为朝鲜。

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但这种政治行为艺术很快引起了当局的警觉,官方多次发文辟谣毛岸英并非死于蛋炒饭,并严厉批评这类网络梗的传播。2018年5月《中华人民共和国英雄烈士保护法》施行,该法律开始为打击这类“辱毛”言论保驾护航。2021年10月,一位微博网友 @左右的佑佑的网民 点评影片《长津湖》时评论道“寒战最大成果就是蛋炒饭,感谢蛋炒饭,没有蛋炒饭,我们就跟曹县一样没区别。当然,可悲的是现在也区别不大”,最终ta被行政拘留十日。

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在官方的强势打压和粉红网民的推波助澜之下,毛岸英与蛋炒饭的任何关联都成为了一种绝对禁忌。以王刚的个人经历为例,无论是在毛岸英生日(10月24日)还是毛岸英忌日(11月25日),发布蛋炒饭相关内容都有可能触及敏感红线(PS.毛泽东生日、忌日有待观察),导致被认定为恶意影射而遭网络讨伐。

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下图为一位网民对王刚炒饭内容的时间戳分析,证明其并非“年年都发”:

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CDT 档案卡
标题:【图说天朝】美食博主王刚三次用蛋炒饭视频“侮辱英烈”?
作者:中国数字时代
发表日期:2023.11.27
主题归类:蛋炒饭节
CDS收藏:话语馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

以下为中国数字时代编辑摘自推特、Youtube网友的评论:

Mark548130494:我寻思27号也不是感恩节,这是11月不准吃炒饭?

accadexia:建议十一月定为毛岸英纪念月,禁止玩网络游戏,炒饭等行为。

ExcitingMike:为什么这些人都理所当然认为十一月底展示蛋炒饭就是乳呢?建议查一下成分。

DonVanderbilt:蛋炒饭悖论:一边辟谣蛋炒饭,一边下架蛋炒饭,反而加强了蛋炒饭传闻的真实性。

Mise_ad2301:共產韭菜必須清楚知道一年365天,戰狼粉紅各有哪些高潮日,卻又沒人敢明確整理寫出哪些日子會讓人高潮。韭菜一生活的好累啊!

wangzhian8848:微博开始集体讨伐王刚,王刚其实也就是每年发一次蛋炒饭的视频,全都没有在11月25号。但这也不行。

5tevewanG:禁止吃蛋炒饭早晚被写入中国宪法。

wdnmd8638:黨都闢謠不是蛋炒飯害死毛岸英了,然後有人還是死咬不放。

user-tn8mm1pr4r:干脆立法吧,中国10月11月不准吃蛋炒饭。 本来你觉得这是谣言,那就大大方方的辟谣,加入历史爱国教育咯,整的这俩月看到蛋炒饭就高潮,敏感成这样真的会让人觉得是被戳到痛处才会这么发反应。

BigBrothersAreWatchingYou:加臘肉更美味!

Histone11:官方的严打下为大家普及了很多知识。

jacobyu5050:11月25日是正宗的感恩节,中国人民的风俗是腊肉蛋炒饭。

cuntou_R:墙上的照片只要在就是乳。

———— 更新道歉视频后 ————

伯罗奔尼飒:我要笑死哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈,这种事情大概只有中国才会发生。

大闸蟹:逼的一个厨子说以后再也不做蛋炒饭了,全网以后都屏蔽蛋炒饭最好,上纲上线最拿手。

DictatorOfPRC:2023禁片《王刚厨师蛋炒饭教学视频》。

zzzzz_369:过于抽象,一个厨师再也不做蛋炒饭……泛政治化过于严重了。

靜默無說話:直接规定十月十一月全国禁止炒饭得了。

Kagaribito:又到了***的季节。

MrD凉冬冬:这两个月避讳蛋炒饭?这个避讳制度感觉比大清还严格啊。

Burgerislove1:做得好,每年這天出來道歉一次,提提大家今天不能做蛋炒飯。

fred328397:天朝典型的逻辑悖论,为了让一件事成为敏感,而广而告之。

超級小陳cjxc:这种不让人炒饭的行为可以叫做猎巫。

MrMensao:一个厨师,因为做了蛋炒饭而向全国道歉,并发誓再也不做蛋炒饭……我不知道如何去向我的下一代解释当下的盛世,但相信未来能让下一代更加明白父母今日移民美国的意义。

真题测试:你能当综艺歌词审核员吗?

By: _ntadmin
2 November 2023 at 02:43
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