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Today — 22 December 2024Main stream

German police probe market attack security and warnings

22 December 2024 at 16:51
EPA Three German police officer stand behind red and white police tape by the Christmas marketsEPA

Grief and anger are boiling over in Magdeburg after an attacker used an access lane for emergency vehicles to drive into a Christmas market, killing five people and injuring hundreds.

On a visit on Saturday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ministers and regional political leaders were heckled by members of the public, some seemingly outraged by what was criticised as a lapse in security.

German authorities have defended the layout and security at the market.

Authorities are also facing questions after reports that they were warned last year about the suspect, with police saying they had conducted an evaluation as to whether the perpetrator might be a potential threat a year ago.

The suspect has been ordered into pre-trial detention and faces charges of murder, attempted murder and dangerous bodily harm.

Usually at this time of the year, German city centres are full of shoppers and revellers drinking mulled wine, but this year the mood is very different.

The main Christmas market is cordoned off by tape and surrounded by police vans as armed officers patrol the shops and malls nearby.

There is sadness in the air in Magdeburg, as well as bafflement and anger, as people ask how could this have happened.

As Scholz and his colleagues walked out of the cordoned-off market during their visit on Saturday, they were met with booing and heckling and shouts of "hau ab", an extremely aggressive form of "get lost".

Some people seemed enraged by a perceived lapse in security. Others appeared simply annoyed and irritated in general at Germany's political leaders.

Security has ramped up at Christmas markets across Germany since a similar attack in Berlin in 2016 when a man drove a lorry into a market crowd, killing 12 people.

Open-plan Christmas markets now have some sort of barrier around them — typically large concrete blocks, which is the case in Magdeburg.

However, the gap in the barriers was large enough to allow emergency vehicles to pass through.

City official Ronni Krug told reporters at a press conference on Saturday that emergency responders needed an evacuation route in case of a "conventional" emergency, and all the relevant agencies approved the plan.

"A safety and security concept must, on the one hand, protect those visiting an event as much as possible, but also needs to ensure, at the same time, if something does happen, they are able to leave the site safely and rapidly", he said.

"Perhaps it is something that could not have been prevented", he added.

German media reported that before the attack, there had been warnings into a potential threat from the suspect.

The suspect, a doctor from Saudi Arabia named Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, arrived in Germany in 2006 and in 2016 was recognised as a refugee.

An atheist, he ran a website that aimed to help other former Muslims flee persecution in their Gulf homelands. His social media was full of anti-Islamic sentiment and conspiracy theories.

At Saturday's press conference, Magdeburg police chief Tom-Oliver Langhans said police had conducted an evaluation as to whether the perpetrator might be a potential threat, "but that discussion was one year ago".

He added that investigations into the suspect's past were ongoing and declined to comment further.

One of those tip-offs is believed to have come from Saudi Arabia, the suspect's home country.

A source close to the Saudi government told the BBC it sent four official notifications known as "Notes Verbal" to German authorities, warning them about what they said were "the very extreme views" held by al-Abdulmohsen.

However, a counter-terrorism expert told the BBC the Saudis may have been mounting a disinformation campaign to discredit someone who tried to help young Saudi women seek asylum in Germany.

On Saturday, Langhans said he did not have information when asked about Saudi Arabia issuing warnings.

Later, the head of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Holger Münch, told public broadcaster ZDF that his office had received a notice from Saudi Arabia in November 2023. He said local police took appropriate investigative measures, but the matter was unspecific.

He added that the suspect "had various contacts with authorities, insulted them and even made threats, but he was not known for violent acts".

Past investigations would need to be revisited, Münch said.

Who is the suspect? What we know so far about Magdeburg market attack

22 December 2024 at 17:11
Reuters A pedestrian walkway through a Christmas market is littered with rubbish and other debrisReuters

On Friday evening, a man ploughed a car into a crowd of shoppers at a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg.

The attack has left five people dead and more than 200 injured, with many in a critical condition.

One man has been arrested over the attack, and police believe he was solely responsible.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travelled to Magdeburg on Saturday, and a city councillor declared Christmas over for the city.

How did the attack unfold?

Unverified footage on social media showed a black BMW travelling at high speeds through the pedestrian walkway between Christmas stalls.

Eyewitnesses described jumping out of the car's path, fleeing or hiding. One told the Reuters news agency that police were already at the venue and chased after the car before arresting the suspect.

Footage from verified sources showed armed police confronting and arresting a man who can be seen lying on the ground next to a stationary vehicle - a black BMW with significant damage to its front bumper.

BBC correspondent Damien McGuinness in Magdeburg reported that the market is "surrounded by concrete blocks". However, "there is a gap which is wide enough for pedestrians to go through, but tragically wide enough for a car to go into the Christmas market", he said.

City officials said around 100 police, medics and firefighters, as well as 50 rescue service personnel rushed to the scene in the aftermath of the attack.

Images from the scene on Friday night showed an area outside the market awash with blue lights as dozens of first responders attended to the injured.

Video shows arrest of Magdeburg attack suspect

Who are the victims?

Five people have died in the attack, one of whom is a child.

More than 200 people have been injured and at least 41 are in a critical condition.

The toll had earlier been reported as two dead and 68 injured, but was revised to the much higher totals on Saturday morning.

None of the victims have been identified yet.

Reuters Bouquets of flowers, candles and teddy bears lean against steps at a makeshift memorialReuters
Tributes have been left at a church by the scene

Who is the suspect?

German media has identified the suspect as Taleb A, a psychiatrist who lives in Bernburg, around 40km (25 miles) south of Magdeburg.

The motive behind the attack remains unclear, but authorities have reported that they believe he carried out the attack alone.

Originally from Saudi Arabia, he arrived in Germany in 2006 and in 2016 was recognised as a refugee.

He ran a website that aimed to help other former Muslims flee persecution in their Gulf homelands.

Evidenced by social media posts, the suspect is an outspoken critic of Islam, and has promoted conspiracy theories regarding a plot to seek Islamic supremacy in Europe.

A report from Der Spiegel said a complaint was filed against Taleb A with the authorities a year ago over statements he made. Officials did not see any concrete threat, the report says.

What have officials said about the attack?

"The reports from Magdeburg raise the worst fears," the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said on social media platform X.

Magdeburg's city councillor for public order, Ronni Krug, said the Christmas market will stay closed and that "Christmas in Magdeburg is over", according to German public broadcaster MDR.

That sentiment was echoed on the market's website, which in the wake of the attack featured only a black screen with words of mourning, announcing that the market was over.

The Saudi government expressed "solidarity with the German people and the families of the victims", in a statement on X, and "affirmed its rejection of violence".

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he was "horrified by the atrocious attack in Magdeburg", adding that his thoughts were with "the victims, their families and all those affected" in a post on X on Friday night.

美国军舰红海误击己方战机 两名飞行员幸存

22 December 2024 at 17:47

2024-12-22T09:29:01.683Z
FA-18超级大黄蜂战机在红海被美军舰艇误击(资料图片)

(德国之声中文网)美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)周六晚间宣布,一架F/A-18超级大黄蜂战斗机在从航空母舰“哈里·杜鲁门”号(USS Harry S. Truman)起飞后,被己方导弹巡洋舰“葛底斯堡”号(USS Gettysburg)“误击”后坠毁。这架飞机属于弗吉尼亚州大洋娜海军航空站第11攻击战斗机中队“红色裂缝者”。

美军声明指出,事故发生在周六上午,飞机起飞后不久即被巡洋舰发射的导弹击中。两名飞行员紧急弹射逃生,其中一人受轻伤。

美国海军哈里·S·杜鲁门号航母战斗群上周进入红海地区(资料图片)

事故调查已展开

目前尚不清楚“葛底斯堡”号如何将己方战机误认为敌机或导弹。由于战斗群中的舰艇通过雷达和无线电通信保持联系,此类失误极为罕见。CENTCOM表示,已启动全面调查,以查明事故原因。

事故发生时,美国军方正对也门首都萨那附近的胡塞武装目标展开空袭。此前,胡塞武装曾向以色列商业中心特拉维夫发射导弹,导致多人受伤。美军还击落了胡塞武装发射的多架无人机和反舰巡航导弹。

红海局势持续紧张

过去一年中,红海地区军事活动显著增加。胡塞武装以支持巴勒斯坦为由,持续袭击商船,自2023年10月加沙战争爆发以来,已攻击约100艘商船,并击沉两艘,造成四名船员死亡。胡塞武装还多次向以色列发射导弹和无人机,招致以色列空袭报复。

美国和欧洲自去年底派遣舰队巡逻红海,以确保航运安全。今年初,美国“艾森豪威尔”号航母战斗群曾经历二战以来最激烈的作战行动。

(法新社,美联社,德新社,路透社)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

BlinkShot – 开源免费 AI 图片快速生成工具

By: DUN
15 December 2024 at 17:12

DUN.IM BLOG

DUN.IM BLOG

我们还年轻,可不想看到这个世界处在毫无自由、隐私的边缘。

BlinkShot 是一个以 AI 人工智能技术即时生成图片的免费服务,这是开源项目,背后使用 AI 加速云服务「Together AI」和图片生成模型 FLUX,这项服务特性是能在非常短的时间内依照输入的提示词生成各种图片,以毫秒为单位,生成的图片也丝毫不逊色,有兴趣的朋友可以玩玩看。

目前 BlinkShot 支持英文提示词,也可以直接叫 AI 服务帮你生成〔例如用 ChatGPT 或其他同类型服务〕,另一个方法是使用图片转文字 AI 工具,例如:Image to Prompt等工具,将喜欢的图片快速转换为英文提示词,最后稍作修改再生成想要的图片。

BlinkShot 目前没有使用的生成数量限制,还有个「Together API Key」栏位可自定义自己的 API 密钥,生成的图片素材皆可免费下载使用,AI 图片基本上也不会受到版权限制,使用于个人或商业用途都没问题。

Generate images with AI in a milliseconds

进入 BlinkShot 后直接输入提示词就会立即生成图片,整体速度非常快,过程中如果继续输入其他形容或是提示词,图片会即时更新,相较于其他同类型的 AI 图片生成器来说确实非常强大!

下方会显示生成的图片历史记录。

通过 BlinkShot 生成的图片看起来很逼真,也能依照用户需求调整成各种风格、样式,越仔细的提示词就能生成更细致准确的结果。

生成过的图片历史记录会显示于下方,可以随时切换回去查看。

在图片点击右键即可下载保存。

在图片上点击鼠标右键、选择「另存图片」后将图片保存下来即可使用。

BlinkShot 未来也会加入下载按钮,让用户更方便获取图片。

苹果 AI 总结新闻闹乌龙,这比「标题党」更令人担心

By: 范津瑞
22 December 2024 at 12:00

万万没想到,苹果 AI 也会有被大骂「标题党」的一天。这对于迟迟没有推出 Apple Intelligence 完全体的苹果可不是一个好消息。

实际情况可能比「标题党」这个不痛不痒的形容词严重得多。如果说标题党只是通过夸张和断章取义的手法来博眼球的话,苹果 AI 的所作所为可以说是「颠倒黑白」。

需要澄清的是,这次「闯祸」的责任完全在于苹果 AI,跟 ChatGPT 的接入没有任何关系。

▲图源:9TO5Mac

近日,英国广播公司(BBC)发布了一系列关于路易吉·曼吉奥内(Luigi Mangione)谋杀美国联合健康保险公司首席执行官布莱恩·汤普森(Brian Thompson)的新闻和跟踪报道,提到了其将面临一级谋杀指控等细节。

然而,BBC 提供的一张截图显示,苹果 AI 总结生成的新闻摘要是「路易吉·曼吉奥内开枪自杀了」(Luigi Mangione shoots himself)。这与事件的真实走向大相径庭:据报道,目前他仍被关押在宾夕法尼亚州的监狱中。

太离谱了,错得太离谱了。

▲图源:BBC

针对这一令人啼笑皆非的错误,BBC 已经向苹果正式提出投诉,要求后者要求采取纠正措施,并且防止此类错误再次发生。BBC 发言人表示其「致力于实现最高标准的准确性和公正性,并努力避免故意严重误导我们的读者」。

此外,无国界记者组织(Reporters Without Borders,简称 RSF)也敦促苹果放弃其生成式人工智能功能。该组织表示「虚假标题」事件表明「生成式 AI 服务仍然太不成熟,无法为公众提供可靠的信息」。

无国界记者组织的技术和新闻部门负责人文森特·伯蒂尔(Vincent Berthier)表示 AI 是概率机器,事实不能通过掷骰子来决定。他还指出《欧洲人工智能法案》并未将信息生成类 AI 归为高风险系统,留下了「严重的法律真空」。

▲图源:Engadget

实际上,这不是苹果 AI 摘要第一次「新闻造假」了。上个月,美国调查新闻网站「ProPublica」的一位名为肯·施文克(Ken Schwencke)的记者在 Bluesky 上分享了一张截图。

截图中的第一条新闻赫然写着「内塔尼亚胡已经被逮捕」(Netanyahu arrested)。然而,真实的情况是国际刑事法院对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发出逮捕令。

这篇被苹果 AI 严重歪曲的报道来自《纽约时报》(NYTimes),后者目前并未对此事发表评论。

▲图源:Bluesky

苹果 Apple Intelligence 的智能生成摘要功能于今年下半年正式推出。苹果的本意,是它能「通过其深度语言理解帮助提炼对你最重要的信息,通知会生成摘要以便你一览重要详细信息」。

看来,苹果所提到的「深度语言理解」似乎水分很大。伦敦城市大学的媒体政策教授佩特罗斯·伊奥菲迪斯(Petros Iosifidis)表示苹果的错误「看起来很尴尬」。

伊奥菲迪斯还表示他「对苹果会推出这样明显半生不熟的产品感到很惊讶」。虽然这项技术在未来具有潜在优势,但是目前「存在传播虚假信息的真正的危险」。

▲Petros Iosifidis(图源:伦敦城市大学)

生成式 AI 技术发展到今天,我们似乎很自然地认为用其来总结一篇文章对于 AI 来讲是「小菜一碟」。事实上,大多数 AI 工具在使用时很少会出现「瞎编」的情况,理解有误或者「断章取义」的情况倒是比较常见。

除了苹果之外,谷歌和微软等科技企业也在尝试使用人工智能技术来对新闻进行分类、排序和摘要总结。这类 AI 工具虽然能够增强用户体验,但其在没有人工干预的情况下一旦出错,所引发的「误会」便可能成指数级传播。

▲图源:Medium

虽说 AI 已经能在大多数场景下出色地帮助人们提高工作效率,但其出错的概率绝不为零。于是,我们不得不在「承担错误风险」和「享受 AI 的便利」之间做出几乎唯一的选择。

下一次,面对社交媒体上的一切信息,我们都要「擦亮眼睛」。

#欢迎关注爱范儿官方微信公众号:爱范儿(微信号:ifanr),更多精彩内容第一时间为您奉上。

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3 年 50 次迭代:我编写了一款专为 Mac 打造的休息提醒工具

22 December 2024 at 09:49
Kakarottoxxxx: 三年前,我开始开发 macOS 休息提醒工具 Eye Monitor ,目前这款应用已经常驻在 App Store 健康榜的前三位。

Eye Monitor 的设计初衷是因为本人常常面对电脑一工作就是 3 、4 小时不停歇,长时间的用眼和久坐导致我在某个时期视力下降明显以及出现腰酸的现象。

Eye Monitor 工作原理很简单:它通过你在 Mac 上的鼠标移动和键盘使用来自动识别你是否在使用电脑,并在长时间使用后弹出弹窗提醒你休息。所以你不需要手动地设置提醒。

这三年进行不少功能迭代,其中我最喜欢的功能有三个:
1 、数据报表:可以查看历史上使用时长、休息完成率等数据的趋势,并且数据可以通过 iCloud 同步,也可以下载到本地
2 、自定义全屏弹窗的壁纸和提示词:颜值即正义
3 、iOS 提醒:我发现自己常常在 Eye Monitor 提示我休息后离开电脑开始玩手机,可以称之为“假休息”。所以我也写了一个 iOS 版本,用来接收 Mac 的提醒并在手机上也弹出提醒,这样可以让我回头是岸。


清华大学有句口号叫做“为祖国健康工作五十年”,希望大家共勉之。

B 站搜索推荐的“f2 翙 r8 勰 sd 蒯 pj 鳏 0o 翙”大家有遇到吗

21 December 2024 at 18:22
sleepybear1113:

我的 B 站首页的搜索框出现了这个 up 搜索推荐的时候,我乍一看以为是乱码了,就顺着好奇真的搜了一下,然后进到这个人的主页,最新的几个动态的评论都是搜索栏引来的,也都是今天下午的事情。

有趣的是,几个朋友也遇到了这个情况。

uid:470578289

这个有没有人分析一下,是凑巧,还是被啥注入了,或者是钻了什么漏洞,还是啥。

反正就是好奇,挺有趣的。

下附截图

Imgur

Imgur

拍摄 RAW 格式对个人用户的意义到底是什么

By: CatCode
21 December 2024 at 17:09
CatCode:

看了一下之前拍摄的照片,大量的 RAW 格式存在硬盘上。大部分都是没有修的图——因为拷卡的时候一起拷了。只有少部分被选过,挑出来修了之后导出了修图之后的 JPG/PNG 。没被选中的也没删。这么多年这些照片也几乎没有打开看过。

虽然 Windows 已经添加了主流相机的 RAW 格式读取支持,但是读取依然比 JPEG 慢一截。

数量积攒在那里,想回去筛选一遍,也不知道该怎么看完这近 TB 级的照片。 (这些图像格式几乎都是高熵格式,几乎没法进一步压缩)

Mozambique on edge before ruling on disputed election results

22 December 2024 at 16:00
Mozambican police officers arrived in an armoured vehicle as smoke billows from burning tyres and protesters stand in a road

Mozambique is on edge ahead of a ruling expected on Monday to determine the final results of October’s disputed elections, after allegations of rigging triggered weeks of protests in which security forces have killed dozens of people.

The opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane has threatened “chaos” if the constitutional council confirms the initial election results, which gave the ruling party candidate, Daniel Chapo, 70.7% of the vote and Mondlane 20.3%.

The Podemos party, which is allied with Mondlane, said it should have 138 out of 250 seats in parliament, instead of the 31 that the election commission said it had won.

Mozambique’s Catholic bishops alleged that ballot-stuffing had taken place, while EU election observers noted “irregularities during counting and unjustified alteration of election results”.

Mondlane has repeatedly said he won and has urged his supporters to take to the streets. This has brought the economy to a near standstill, including shutting the border and disrupting trade with South Africa.

Security forces have cracked down in response, killing at least 130 people and injuring hundreds more, according to Human Rights Watch. Local media reported that security forces shot dead two mourners on 14 December at a funeral for a blogger known as Mano Shottas, who had been killed while livestreaming a protest two days earlier.

Recently, some protesters have become violent, with offices of the ruling party, Frelimo, set on fire and a statue of the former defence minister Alberto Chipande, who is credited with firing the first shot in Mozambique’s war of independence, pulled down.

“On Monday the whole country must stop,” Mondlane said on Friday in one of his regular broadcasts, which he has been streaming on Facebook from an undisclosed location abroad, where he claims he fled to avoid being assassinated.

Mondlane called for prayers in the south-east African country on Sunday. “We are giving the opportunity to pray for the judges of the constitutional council, to pray for [its chair] Dr Lúcia Ribeiro, so that on Monday, from her, justice comes out, the electoral truth does not come out as a lie,” he said.

Mozambique’s outgoing president, Filipe Nyusi, rebutted Mondlane’s claim that he was planning to cling to power, saying in a Thursday evening broadcast that he would leave office in January as planned.

He also implicitly criticised Mondlane, saying: “It worries us that the process of choosing our leaders was transformed into a pretext to induce and exacerbate social tensions and violent acts.”

Zenaida Machado, a researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the ruling administration had “decided to brand the entire protest movement as violent to justify their own use of excessive force”.

“The fact that some people within a protest have become violent does not label the entire protests violent,” she said.

While most analysts believe there was some level of rigging, some said it was unclear whether Mondlane had won.

“A 70% majority for Frelimo was a massive surprise to everybody,” said Alex Vines, who was part of a group of election observers from the Commonwealth. “But neither … can [you] say that Venâncio Mondlane won. We just don’t know.

“The [opposition party] Renamo vote collapsed in Renamo heartlands,” said Vines, the head of the Africa programme at the thinktank Chatham House. “Frelimo benefited from that. It was in the urban areas that Podemos and particularly Venâncio prospered, which is not enough, necessarily, to get a majority.”

Four of the constitutional council’s seven judges were appointed by Frelimo parliamentarians, while the chair was appointed by Nyusi.

Adriano Nuvunga, the director of the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights, a Mozambican non-profit organisation, said: “Everything will depend on what they say at the announcement – whether they will confirm the current results with minor changes or whether there will be a change, which is unrealistic. We are bracing for impact.”

客座评论:从线性发展到通货紧缩的怪圈

22 December 2024 at 16:17
张俊华
2024-12-22T08:08:16.813Z
学者的最新预估称,中国有大约9亿人月收入低于3000元

(德国之声中文网)北大的林毅夫是中国线性思维的代表。记得在2015年他就提出我们将在明年即2025年进入“高收入阶段”阶段。按照他的理论,中国在1978—1998年时期是第一阶段是低收入阶段。在这一时间段,中国人均国民总收入从190美元增长到820美元。1999—2009年是中国发展的第二阶段,即下中等收入阶段。2010—2023年则是中国发展的第三阶段,即上中等收入阶段。而从2025年起,中国便进入了第四阶段,即高收入阶段。

最新估测

现在回过头来看,显然,他的乐观预测并没有成为现实。相反,习近平残酷的清零政策以及后来蹩脚的经济政策,导致了中国经济明显的紧缩。尽管在2017,官方声称中国的中等收入族群已超过4亿,而习近平政府又在2020年宣告中国成功地实现了全面脱贫。但《经济观察报》12月7日一个报道,告诉了我们一个残酷的事实:据浙江大学共享与发展研究院院长李实研究并估算,截至目前,未达到中等收入标准的人群数量约占全国总人口的65%,即低收入人群约有9亿人。李实教授的低收入的标准是,月收入低于3000元。

李实教授指出,这9亿人群的收入也存在较大差距,一部分群体的收入接近中等收入水平,而另外一部分群体则处于相对贫困状态。但不管如何,他们的实际生活水准并不令人羡慕。笔者以为,如果把中国目前的“实际可支配的收入低于3000元”的人一同计算,即那些表面上其收入似乎高于3000元,但由于每个月支付房贷和车贷等,最终到手的依然低于3000元的人群算进去,总数可能还多一些呢。

李实的估算,跟中国前总理李克强2020年曾在总理记者会上的说法似乎类似。当时李克强断定,中国有6亿人的每月收入仅为1000元。而中国国家统计局此后回应说,该数据反映了中国的基本国情。如果这样的话,再看一下疫情后的经济下行,各地不少企业不是在倒闭、裁人,就是在减薪。连政府部分和事业单位、国企也不例外。

相关图集:盛极而哀 中国房产业风雨飘摇

房企接连爆雷:中国房地产商碧桂园2024年2月28日表示,27日遭债权人提出了清盘呈请。消息一出,碧桂园28日在香港股价下跌约12%。在中国政府欲重建各界对房地产业的信心之际,此事也对经济前景蒙上阴影。此前碧桂园是为数不多的没有出现资金问题的中国大型开发商之一,但2023年上半年亏损达到了67亿美元。9月中,碧桂园获得债权人的批准,将六只境内债券的偿还期限延长三年。
恒大资不抵债:中国房产巨头恒大集团才刚于今年1月底遭香港高等法院裁定资不抵债,勒令清盘。碧桂园债务估计约1.36万亿人民币(约1900亿美元),接近其1.43万亿人民币的资产;恒大集团负债则达到3000亿美元。恒大2023年9月22日提交给证券监管机构的公告中称,由于房地产销售不如预期,该公司认为有必要重新审视350亿美元的债务重组的方案。9月底,恒大证实其创始人许家印"因涉嫌违法犯罪,已被依法采取强制措施"。2021年恒大陷入资不抵债,导致了一系列开发商违约,引发了中国的房地产泡沫崩解。
金融信托巨头陷入财务危机:2023年8月,有报道称中国最大私人信托公司中融信托出现财务危机,无法完成信托产品的兑付,影响范围可能达到人民币3500亿元。其母公司中植集团也承认有流动性困难,计划债务重组。8月16日,约二十名抗议者在北京中融信托大楼前抗议要求还钱,他们购买了高收益的金融产品,却无法得到兑付。信托业历来是房地产商重要的资金来源,房地产业的爆雷也使信托业陷入危机。
放松限购刺激房市效果不彰:中国央行2023年8月宣布降低首次购房者现有抵押贷款利率,以及部分城市的购房首付款比例。从8月末到9月初,广州、深圳、北京、上海相继官宣实施"认房不认贷"政策,名下无房人群的购房门槛比之前降低,不少购房人将由二套房资格变为首套房资格,首付比例大幅下调。此后有报导指北京的房产交易出现小幅反弹。但更多的专家指出,这些措施可能会使房地产交易中产生短期反弹,但不足以稳定房地产市场。”
空置房屋“14亿人住不完”:据中新社发布的一段视频,中国国家统计局原副局长、全国人大财经委副主任的贺铿9月23日在2023中国实体经济发展大会上称,“现在房地产供应过剩,空置的房屋究竟有多少,各个专家估出来的数字相差很大,但是14亿人可能住不完。”他认为“房地产企业必须转型,早转型早主动”。
数百万套房屋未售出:资产管理集团思睿投资(Grow Investment)首席经济学家洪灏表示,调整中国的房地产行业可能需要多年甚至长达十年的时间。“原因是,我们为中国人建造了太多的住房。”中国国家统计局的数据显示,截至2023年8月底,全国未售出房屋的总建筑面积为6.48亿平方米。根据路透社的计算,以平均房屋面积90平方米来算,中国未售出房屋的总建筑面积当于720万套房屋。这还不包括因现金流问题已售出但尚未竣工的大量住宅项目。

官方数据的水分

当然,为了迎合习近平的在经济下行时期只能唱赞歌的原则,官方不少数据依然在渲染“形势一片大好”。如中国社会保障学会日前还宣布,如果按照2023年个税清缴数据报告推算,每月收入人民币3500元以下的超低收入人口逾6亿。而中国官方的国内生产总值GDP也是如此报道的。

而最近冒出了两个经济学家,则对此进行了批驳,以至于他们被官方消音。一位是国投证券首席经济学家高善文,他根据经济增长、就业、消费和投资数据无法吻合的情况推断,2021年至2023年期间,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)“增速每一年高估了3个百分点,累计高估了10个百分点”。高善文认为当前的失业严峻程度和官方公布的经济增速有很大反差,并推算新增就业人口比正常状态下少了4700万。

另一位是东北证券经济学家付鹏,他在一次会议演讲中说,消费疲软源于房地产价格下跌,导致一些中产阶级房主出现负资产;中产阶级又因裁员、降薪等因素产生恐慌,开始大幅压缩支出。这种消费能力的下降不是短期现象,而是一个结构性的转变。付鹏对目前政府实现这个结构转变的能力是持有怀疑态度的,他说,“由于问题深重,政府通过加杠杆刺激经济的措施,已难扭转中产阶级迅速萎缩的趋势”。付鹏的分析不是没有根据,因为中国的房地产包含了中国70%的家庭财富,持续的危机会削弱消费者和企业的信心。

事实确实是这样:中国今年经济表现不佳,官方陆续出台纾困政策,但迄今未开花结果。今年房地产危机持续恶化,地方政府债务高企,消费疲软不振,出口乏善可期,企业与资金继续外流。中央确实也推出了各种措施刺激经济,但官方的刺激措施已无法像2008年那样奏效。

过去传统三大经济火车头,基础建设投资、房地产和出口,近年都面临停滞。房地产业占GDP高达16%,加计基建投资更占到约24%,但房地产已无火车头的拉动效用,无法成为经济增长主要动能,甚至成为拖累因素。而基建投资由于地方政府债务繁重,已无法像以往那样大手大脚地操作了。

相关图集:盛世?危时?鸟瞰中国经济

基建放缓:江苏南京,距离上海约300公里的省会,成排高铁列车在南站停靠。中国计划2024年新开通14条高铁,全长1700公里。多年来,中国一直力推基础设施建设。但如今,大规模基建放缓。
东三省的困境:图中是今年春节前夕辽宁沈阳的一个市场。近年来,在房地产危机之下,中国经济受到重压,影响到就业、社会的方方面面。沈阳所在的东北地区曾是中国重工业的摇篮,如今经济萧条。
农业与天时:盛夏,重庆的农民收获了玉米和辣椒。今年,由于洪水、酷热高温等极端天气,农田被毁,农产品价格飙升。
清洁能源与光伏内卷:在宁夏腾格里沙漠,光伏电池板组成大片的光伏基地。中国正大力推动清洁能源。然而,光伏产业如今正面临产能过剩,光伏企业面临严重内卷。
民以食为天:江苏如皋的工人在手工生产酱油。民以食为天。今年,中国也爆出食品安全事件:油罐车混装化工煤油和食用油,引发公众愤怒。
新疆的活畜市场:5月,新疆伊犁的活畜交易市场看上去颇为热闹。
期待日子“红红火火”:夏日,重庆的工人们将红辣椒分包待运。
内卷的汽车:南京一处报废汽车停放场地。作为全球最大汽车销售市场,中国汽车行业内卷十分严重。与此同时,报废汽车对环境的污染问题也有待解决。

习近平的尝试和新的许诺

至于出口实际上正是习近平对提升中国经济希望的寄托:因为习近平自2020年就开始努力,希望通过发展高科技的工业,并出口它们的产品(如新三件:即电动车、车用电池、太阳能板), 来实现经济结构的转型,即用高科技产品来替换原来的经济动力,即房地产和国内的消费,但显然,由于他不精明的经济外交(如倾销),在国外阻力重重。

而随着中国经济的明显下滑,中国的年轻人和中年人的生活负担日益加重,以致于到了有人“吃了上顿顾不了下顿”的地步。中国目前法拍房剧增、无家可归的人增加,以及无差别害人的事件愈演愈烈,无不说明了这个“重返集体贫困”的问题。面对上述问题,中央层面不能说一无所知毫无感觉,在本月的几个重要会议上,中央层面已经释出了“异常紧迫”的信号。习近平自己在中央经济工作会议上发出如下的许诺:

即“推动中低收入群体增收减负,适当提高退休人员基本养老金,提高城乡居民基础养老金,提高城乡居民医保财政补助标准。加大保障和改善民生力度,增强人民群众获得感幸福感安全感”。 但迄今为止,习近平更关心的实际上是他的所谓“新生产力”,而非百姓的生活质量。中央宁愿为制造业多花钱,也不愿意为百姓提高收入。

中国能走出通货紧缩的怪圈吗?

本月11至12日在北京举行中央经济工作会议,也作出如下决定,即2025年要提高财政赤字率、增发超长期特别国债、适时降准降息以保持流动性充裕,以及实施“适度宽松的货币政策”等宣示,未公布具体的政策措施。换言之,中国2025年的财经政策将因此从保守走向宽松扩张。这意味着,决策者可能设定高达4%的高于往常的赤字目标 (以往的上限是3%),人民银行(中国央行)印钞票去买国债, 从而为增加中央政府借款以提振经济奠定基础。另外,2025年政策利率极有可能下调40个基点,如果是这样,这将是自2016年以来的最大降幅。但上述的各项宣示重点主要仍偏向“增加政府的开支”,却缺乏如何“增加民众的开支”以促进消费。 最终,习近平上面一大串许诺即有可能成为一张空头支票。

现在看来,中国至少在今后一两年内很难摆脱通货紧缩的怪圈。所谓通货紧缩就是由于有效需求的严重不足导致商品与服务的价格下降,而人们的购买意愿的低下则又促使前者价格再进入一个新的一轮的下跌(主要工业产品,日常用的食品例外),导致经济进一步衰退。中国的通货紧缩现在正在进入一种恶性循环,这并非是通过印钞票能解决的。  

本文作者张俊华为德籍华人政治学者,在德国生活三十余年。他曾就读于德国法兰克福大学,并获得哲学博士学位。此后曾执教于柏林自由大学等高校。现为法国Ecole Universitaire de Management客座教授。

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Last Week on My Mac: School of Athens or Blinded Samson?

By: hoakley
22 December 2024 at 16:00

I wonder whether we’ll look back at 2024 as the year that Apple Intelligence came to our Macs and devices?

While there are plenty of nay-sayers, and those who still accuse Apple of falling behind, there can be few who aren’t aware of what’s available to those who have bought a recent Mac or one of the higher-end iPhones or iPads. Since Apple’s attempt to hijack the established abbreviation AI at WWDC last summer, we have heard little else. There can have been few minor updates that were sold as heavily as the autumn’s x.1 and x.2 releases for their lavishly preannounced new features.

We’ve been beta-testing some of those features for as long as we’re normally allowed for a whole major release of macOS. Over that period, the number of users who have switched to English (US) as their primary language must have been substantial. It’s the first time I have kept one of my Macs running beta-releases long after the annual macOS upgrade, and I only reverted when 15.2 was released with AI support for English (UK).

raphaelschoolathens
Raphael (1483–1520), The School of Athens (c 1509-10), fresco, 500 x 770 cm, Stanza della Segnatura, Palazzo Vaticano, The Vatican City. Wikimedia Commons.

Although these AI features have their uses, and for many should prove quietly revolutionary, I’m not convinced that they transform our Macs or devices into anything even remotely intelligent, and a far cry from the great thinkers in Raphael’s masterpiece The School of Athens. The central figures here are Plato (left), who carries in his left hand a book titled TIMEO (I am afraid), and Aristotle (right), whose book bears the word ETICA (ethics). Seen further to the left in profile is Socrates, and below him is Pythagoras writing in a book while a boy holds in front of him a small blackboard showing the theory of harmony.

Contrast that hullabaloo about AI with Apple’s complete silence on security, specifically the changes brought in its front-line malware detection feature XProtect in macOS Sequoia, since its release on 16 September. Prior to that, XProtect’s data bundle, including its Yara file of detection signatures for malicious software, had been maintained by the general macOS update service through softwareupdated. The diagram below outlines this long-established process.

xprotectupd1

When Sequoia 15.0 was released, that changed to what has turned out to be an intermediate invoking both the old mechanism and the new.

xprotectupd2

For the first couple of weeks of that, XProtect updates were chaotic:

  • 13 Sep (approx) Software Update Service stopped providing regular XProtect updates
  • 13 Sep (approx) XProtect version 5273 available from Software Update Service for Sequoia only
  • 16 Sep macOS 15.0 released, with version 5273 available from Software Update Service for Sequoia only; upgraded Macs updated to 5273 by copying from secondary to primary locations; 5273 not provided from iCloud, where 5272 remained the current version
  • 18 Sep Software Update Service resumed delivery of 5272 to Sonoma and earlier
  • 18 Sep Software Update Service started delivery of 5274 to Sonoma and earlier; 5273 no longer available for Sequoia, with 5272 still available from iCloud
  • 24 Sep Software Update Service delivered 5275 for Sequoia; no change to Sonoma and earlier, and 5272 still available from iCloud.

Then, just as we were getting the hang of it, Sequoia 15.2 excised the old mechanism, as we discovered last week when Apple released the first update to XProtect since 15.2.

xprotectupd3

Throughout all of this, Apple has remained completely silent. What’s even more surprising is that in the last few days, Apple has updated its definitive guide to security for Macs and all its devices. Although not all localised English translations have yet been synced with its US or Canadian English versions, the account of XProtect now has a published date of 19 December 2024, but doesn’t mention September’s changes.

There are those who insist that none of this is our concern, we should just let Apple do whatever it deems appropriate, and we shouldn’t even know what version of XProtect’s data is installed, as macOS takes care of all that for us. However, the security of my Mac is very much my business. If I were to unwittingly install malware that stole sensitive information, those are my banking details at risk, not Apple’s. Should I suffer financial loss as a result, would Apple provide unlimited compensation?

Hardly. Read sections 8 and 9 of Apple’s licence for macOS Sequoia, and the onus is clearly placed on the user. Just to emphasise this, further down that licence, in the Apple Pay & Wallet Terms and Conditions, is the express statement: “You are solely responsible for maintaining the security of your Mac Computer, Supported Devices, your Apple Account, your Touch ID information, the passcode(s) to your device(s), and any other authentication credentials used in connection with the Services (collectively, your “Credentials”).” The next time someone says that you should leave the security of your Mac to Apple, remind them of that.

Apple also encourages us to take an active part in our Mac’s security protection, and provides us with tools for doing so. The description given in man xprotect is a good example: “xprotect is used to interact with XProtect. It is useful for administrators or users who want to manually invoke XProtect functionality.”

Information about XProtect updates is exposed in the GUI, in System Information, where each update including those delivered by both old and new mechanisms is listed, together with its version number. That in itself is puzzling, as recent entries incomprehensibly duplicate older XProtectPlistConfigData entries with newer XProtectCloudKitUpdates.

So if AI doesn’t bring us the School of Athens, what has macOS Sequoia achieved so far? For this second image I turn to Lovis Corinth’s first major painting after his near-fatal stroke just before Christmas in 1911, an autobiographical portrait expressing his frustrations, in The Blinded Samson from 1912.

corinthblindsamson
Lovis Corinth (1858–1925), The Blinded Samson (1912), oil on canvas, 105 x 130 cm, Alte Nationalgalerie, Berlin. Wikimedia Commons.

Please don’t breathe a word of this over on Apple Support Communities, though, where it seems your Mac’s security should be like mediaeval religion, a matter of blind faith and the suppression of knowledge. It’s high time for a Renaissance, much more Enlightenment, and a modicum of Intelligence.

'I heard rumbling and shattering glass': Eyewitness describes Christmas market attack

22 December 2024 at 03:59
Reuters Armed officer stands in front of building with Christmas decorations projected onto it and an ambulance to the side in MagdeburgReuters

A woman who was with her boyfriend at the Christmas market in Magdeburg has told local media she had her boyfriend in her arms when the car used in the attack came speeding towards them.

"He was hit and pulled away from my side. It was terrible," 32-year-old Nadine told the Bild newspaper.

Footage published on German media showed a black car striking a crowd of people at high speed and continuing to drive forward for hundreds of metres.

Nadine's boyfriend is said to have sustained injuries to his leg and head.

Another eyewitness, Gianni Warzecha, told the BBC he was listening to Christmas music at the market with his girlfriend's family when "suddenly there was a rumbling and the sound of shattered glass".

"People began to panic," he said. "I saw the car and people on the floor, people bleeding. There were also kids.

"I was concentrating on getting first aid to people. It took a few minutes for the first paramedics to arrive but it wasn't enough because there were already 200 people hurt.

"Most of the first aid was done by people there."

Lars Frohmüller, a reporter for the public broadcaster MDR who arrived at the Christmas market in Magdeburg shortly after the attack, told the BBC about what he saw.

"Everywhere were ambulances, there were police, there were a lot of fire workers.

"This was a real chaotic situation. We saw blood on the floor, we saw people sitting beside each other and having golden and silver foils around them. And we saw many doctors trying to keep people warm and help them with their injuries.

"It's a big shock. It's a big shock for every people here in Magdeburg and for every person in Saxony-Anhalt."

Tobias Rausch, who was at the Christmas market and serves as general secretary of Germany's far-right AfD party in Saxony-Anhalt, told Reuters it was scary.

Rausch said he had not reached the market when "all of a sudden, we heard a muffled noise, an engine roaring".

"People were screaming. It all happened in a fraction of a second."

Once away from danger, Rausch said he was able to film the moment police detained the suspect.

Local officials told a news conference that fellow citizens had given vital first aid to those hurt in the moments before emergency services arrived on the scene.

Reuters Heike JankeReuters
Heike Janke was at the Christmas market on Friday hours before the attack

One Magdeburg resident, Heike Janke, was at the Christmas market on Friday and left at around 18:00 local time (17:00 GMT), roughly an hour before the attack took place.

"We could have been hit," Ms Janke told Reuters, as she lit a candle for those involved in the tragedy. She said she felt appalled by what happened, "somehow you just can't believe it".

She was joined by many other locals who brought flowers and candles to a church near where the attack happened.

Corinna Pagels, a local and employee with a counselling organisation, said she was at the market herself early on Friday. She said the healing for the community starts now.

"Of course, it gets to you and we also need to process things and thankfully we have a good network and are also there to provide aftercare for rescue workers and firefighters and support them in the aftermath. So the real work starts now."

Video shows arrest of Magdeburg attack suspect

要充电就买电车,混动是卖给燃油车主的。

22 December 2024 at 14:01
qiumaoyuan: 混合动力最开始出现的目的,就是为了省油。根本上是利用了电机与内燃机正好在各自高效工作的区间可以互补的特点,来达到让内燃机要么不工作,要么就只工作在最高效的区间的目的。

最一开始的混动只有油混(不能充电),后来车企在国内的政策下搞出了应付政策的插混。然后插混莫名其妙的似乎更受欢迎起来了,是因为多数人觉得混动的定义是“即可以用电又可以烧油”。其实关于这些问题,10 年前 38 号早就科普过: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1EJ411Q7kD

电比油便宜,插混流行起来就会导致一个结果:很多人买了插混之后,图便宜老是充电,这样用的时间久了发现自己不知道加油的意义。再后来,就如很多人发现的那样:既然我整天充电为什么不直接买电车?

对插电混动来说,电池本来就相对纯电车小,续航也短,如果整天不加油,只用电,充电循环次数比纯电增长得快得多,寿命也更容易损耗。而如果正常当作燃油车来用,电池管理系统会自动让电池始终处于浅充浅放的状态,该充电了会自动启动内燃机,做到电池与车辆同寿命。

混合动力本来就是一种高配燃油车,省油的同时,能带来更好的驾驶感受,更低的噪音,更直接的动力。如果这样看待混动,很多关于混动的莫名其妙的疑问自然迎刃而解。

总结一下 3 个观点:

1. 混动是高配燃油车,更省油、更舒适。
2. 插电混动是应付政策(要上绿牌必须能够纯电行驶 xx 公里)的产物。
3. 图电费便宜,直接买电车。

Apple 全家桶用户/HomeKit 用户慎用小米系的路由器

22 December 2024 at 13:54
MacsedProtoss:

症状描述

网络拓补大概为 光猫(桥接)- 软路由原版 OpenWrt 拨号/DHCP - Mac Mini Surge 旁路由 - 小米路由器 AP 模式有线 mesh

小米路由器是一台 AX9000 和一台小米万兆路由器 两台都是旗舰机

使用 sunshine-moonlight 串流 串流 host 是 windows 13900K+4090 没有性能瓶颈

当接收方是非 Apple 设备时 例如 steam deck oled ,音画同步 调试信息显示 latency 5ms jitter 1ms

当接收方是 Apple 设备 无论是 iPad Pro 还是 MacBook Pro 还是 Apple TV 都会都会遇到声音断断续续 操作不流畅 调试信息显示 latency 乱跳 几十到上百 ms jitter 也随之变化 幅度也是几十到上百 ms

排查过程

由于只有 Apple 设备有问题 所以就在 GitHub issue 中搜寻 结果发现了 awdl 相关的 issue https://github.com/moonlight-stream/moonlight-qt/issues/159#issuecomment-568654813

于是将 AP 改为 awdl 的频段 149 ,iPad Pro 上问题消失 我以为是解决了

结果没过几天 问题突然又复现了 遇事不决先重启设备试试 发现问题依旧 于是开始进一步的 debug

首先我发现 awdl 问题苹果其实已经修了 在 macOS13.1 开始就没有问题了 https://systemstatus.ucla.edu/status?id=status_record&service=a8226ec01b1651509ca4a602b24bcb20

其次之前我遗漏了一个点 Apple TV 是有线连接的 为啥也一样出问题呢? 肯定不是 Wi-Fi only 的 awdl 问题导致的

意外收获

所有这些设备无论无线还是有线都是连接的小米 AP 所以第一反应是尝试下重置 AP 重置的时候没注意从分开三频变成了三频合一 然后突然发现所有无线设备网络都巨卡无比 难道是 AP 坏了?当然不是...开启三频合一之后又恢复了

那么开启合一会导致哪些设备也用同一个 ssid 了呢?那就是智能家居 进一步说 是 HomeKit 设备 突然联想到这一块应该是用的 mdns ,但是小米这个 ap 都是旗舰级的咋还有这种问题呢

思来想去还是打算换个 AP 测试一下 于是买了个美版的 Asus ET12 ( AXE11000 )

单个 ET12 确实解决了问题 哪怕没设置为 awdl 频段。但是当我接入一台小米 ap 单独为 HomeKit 设备提供 2.4G 网络时 问题又复现了 也就是说 Apple 设备走 mdns - ET12 - 小米 AP - HomeKit 这个链路就会有问题,去除掉小米 AP 之后就没有问题了

经过两周测试后确认没有问题 于是再入手一只 ET12 组有线 mesh 现在已经平稳运行 2 个月了 问题解决

未解之谜

小米的路由器到底干了啥对于 mdns 的性能如此之差 建议 Apple 用户 尤其是 HomeKit 用户不要考虑购买小米的路由器

我做了个视频介绍 stripe 以及 stripe 开发

By: gen900
22 December 2024 at 13:19
gen900:

之前做了个小产品出海,虽然没有带来理想的收入,但是把整个出海流程从开发到部署运维,到收款都走了一遍。最近和群里小伙伴聊天说到这个事,他说既然都做了何不把你会的知识分享给其他有需要的小伙伴呢? 我一想也有道理,于是花时间做了个短视频介绍 stripe

如果有小伙伴对 stripe 有兴趣可以留言多多交流。

求助:组装的电脑时不时会卡住黑屏 2 秒

By: 0139
22 December 2024 at 12:59
0139:

问题表现

使用某些程序时,点击了某个按钮的时候,所有程序的界面会先卡住 2 秒,期间光标是可以移动的,但光标样式不会变(比如移动到文本框不会变成编辑状态的 I )。紧接着光标也卡住不动,显示器黑屏 2 秒再恢复。弹出 AMD 错误报告工具窗口。

  • 一开始以为是系统和驱动的问题,从 win10 改到 win11 ,又装回 win10 ,驱动也是从 amd 官网的驱动管理工具自动安装的;
  • 黑屏前 cpu 占用很低,温度也不高;
  • 网上有说是显卡问题,但我用的是 cpu 集显;
  • 应该不是 hp 、hdmi 线的问题,试过将两个显示器的电源拔掉,在公司用 todesk 远程的时候,也会卡住;

电脑配置

电脑配置

复现方法

一个 100%能复现的方法是:使用豆包电脑端连续对话,10 分钟内必黑屏。

截图

Snipaste_2024-12-22_08-12-24.pngSnipaste_2024-12-22_08-12-38.png

错误报告

AMD 错误报告

AI 论文帮,学术论文不用求人了,一键生成

By: qbqbq
22 December 2024 at 12:17
qbqbq:

生成的论文及时复制保存到本地,本站不保存任何数据。

AI 论文帮:ttps://lw.aifeisheng.com/ 学生、老师、工程专用 AI 论文生成工具使用说明 填写论文题目和关键词。 设置字符数、章节数和案例数。 选择是否写结束语。 填写验证码,答对后点击“一键生成”。 生成的论文将显示在页面右侧。

加上昨天的作文帮,解决两个小需求,免费使用。

Sora Plus 会员 可以注册使用了

By: yzding
22 December 2024 at 12:13
yzding:

试用了一下,只能生出 5s 最高 720P 的视频。效果没有达到发布会吹的那样。开了 pro 的可以试一下生成更长时间的视频

创作词:

镜头从森林深处开始,一片静谧的河流在画面中央缓缓流动,阳光透过茂密的树冠洒在水面上,形成一片金色的光斑。河流周围的景色绿意盎然,偶尔可以听到昆虫和鸟类的鸣叫声。镜头慢慢移动到河中心,突然,一阵激烈的水花打破了平静。画面聚焦到一条巨大的蟒蛇正紧紧缠绕着一只体型庞大的鳄鱼。蟒蛇的鳞片在阳光下闪烁着微弱的光泽,显得坚韧而狡猾;鳄鱼则疯狂扭动着它的身躯,尾巴猛烈拍击着水面,溅起高高的浪花。

鳄鱼张开它那布满利齿的嘴巴发出低沉的咆哮,试图咬住蟒蛇的身体,但蟒蛇灵活地躲开,同时加大了缠绕的力度。镜头拉近,可以清楚地看到鳄鱼的爪子划过水面,激起一道道细碎的水纹,而蟒蛇的每一次动作都带动周围的水流,形成一股暗涌。

就在这场生死搏斗愈发激烈时,一头小鹿突然从左侧树林中冲出,双眼睁得大大的,显然意识到危险正在眼前。它毫不犹豫地迈开修长的四肢,朝着河流疾速奔跑而来。画面随着小鹿的动作移动,清楚地捕捉到它踏入河水时溅起的轻微水花。小鹿以优雅而快速的动作跃入空中,在阳光的照耀下,它的身体几乎像剪影般完美。

当小鹿跳跃的轨迹与正在搏斗的蟒蛇和鳄鱼交错时,鳄鱼的头短暂地转向小鹿,试图评估这突如其来的生物。但就在这瞬间,小鹿已经稳稳地落在河对岸,甩了甩被打湿的蹄子,迅速消失在树林深处。鳄鱼似乎意识到无法追上,重新将注意力放回与蟒蛇的争斗上,水面再次被拍打得水花四溅。

镜头缓缓拉远,远处的小鹿身影模糊地消失在翠绿的森林中,而河流的战斗仍在持续,水花和声音渐渐变小,最终画面切为一片宁静的森林场景。

bt 下载和 UPnP 端口映射问题

By: wisej
22 December 2024 at 12:06
wisej:

bt 客户端为 qBittorrent Enhanced ,开启 UPnP 。 从 log 里看应该是映射成功了,但是成功前也有 fail message ,如下:

(W) 2024-12-22T09:41:48 - UPnP/NAT-PMP port mapping failed. Message: "could not map port using UPnP: unknown UPnP error (-1)"
(I) 2024-12-22T09:41:48 - UPnP/NAT-PMP port mapping succeeded. Message: "successfully mapped port using UPnP. external port: TCP/7493"
(W) 2024-12-22T09:41:48 - UPnP/NAT-PMP port mapping failed. Message: "could not map port using UPnP: unknown UPnP error (-1)"
(I) 2024-12-22T09:41:48 - UPnP/NAT-PMP port mapping succeeded. Message: "successfully mapped port using UPnP. external port: UDP/7493"

但是用本地机器 A 和 vps 下同一个种子,从 vps bt 客户端的 peers 里能看到 peer A ,但是 A 的 port 并不是上面的 7493.这是否说明 UPnP 失败了?

查到的一种说法是多层 NAT ,可能下游 NAT 机器未开启 UPnP 。可是家宽应该都是多层 NAT 吧,如果 isp 没开 UPnP ,那本地开启也没意义了?

为什么用 Discuz 搭建的论坛邮箱服务失效率这么高

By: bhoppi
22 December 2024 at 12:01
bhoppi:

由于深受垃圾邮件骚扰,最近把用了 20 多年的主力电邮地址换掉了,打算把过去所有注册过的 300 多个网站都改一遍。整个改下来发现,大部分网站的修改都很顺利(已关停和被封禁的不算),但有一小部分网站没有改成功,主要是两大类:

  1. 网站不允许修改邮箱;
  2. 网站修改邮箱的功能不工作,主要收不到验证邮件、换绑时各种报错等。

总结下来,出现这些情况的网站绝大多数都是中文网站,这一定程度上体现出了中国互联网发展的特殊性(很多都是以手机号为主、邮箱为辅,甚至一些网站只为老用户保留邮箱但是只读,新用户直接没了这个字段)。最有意思的是,有些网站的国内和国外版都有区别,比如,联想的国际版可以改邮箱,而 CN 版不可以。

以上是背景。我要说的重点是第 2 种情况,网站修改邮箱的功能不工作,除了虎扑、当当等个别网站外,其余大部分都是 Discuz 搭建的论坛。我注册过的 Discuz 论坛有 20 个左右,改邮箱时发现大部分都收不到验证邮件,导致无法修改邮箱。而用基于 phpBB 、Discourse 、Flarum 等框架搭建的论坛基本没有这个问题。

不知道这里面有没有深层次的技术原因,还是纯属巧合,有没有搭建过 Discuz 论坛的坛友来说一说,你们的论坛有没有遇到过这个问题,原因是什么?

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