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Today — 9 January 2025Main stream

中国PPI连续27月下跌 通缩阴霾挥之不去

中国周四(9日)公布12月居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨0.1%,全国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.3%,PPI是连续27个月下跌,引发通货紧缩的疑虑。

中国国家统计局的数据显示,全国CPI环比持平,同比上涨0.1%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI微幅回升,同比上涨0.4%,涨幅比上月增加0.1个百分点。

12月份,全国PPI环比下降0.1%,同比下降2.3%,同比降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。统计局归因于受部分行业进入传统生产淡季、国际大宗商品价格波动传导等因素所影响。

汪浩:中国通缩源于供过于求

国际问题专家汪浩接受本台访问时表示,中国当前的通缩现象源于结构性供过于求,反映产能过剩与有效需求不足的深层问题。从房地产到电动车,各行业都存在供需失衡的情况,这是结构性问题,有长期恶化的趋势。

“中国国家领导人习近平不懂经济,只关注降低物价,但忽视企业获利的重要性。随着产品价格下降,企业难以盈利,越赔越多。最终被迫裁员,导致失业率上升。百姓失去工作,物价再便宜也无用,”汪浩认为,这种供需失衡的根本原因在于,中国经济结构只考虑共产党的利益,而非一般老百姓需求,导致经济运行长期供需不平衡。

彭博解读,中国的消费者通胀进一步减弱接近零,已连续4个月放缓,这对政府试图通过经济刺激措施消除通缩,并提振需求的努力来说是一个挫折。北京的担忧在于,持续的价格下跌周期可能长期抑制家庭支出,严重损害企业营收,进而阻碍投资,并导致进一步的工资削减和裁员。

CNBC指出,持续接近零的消费者通胀率表明,中国仍在努力应对疲弱的国内需求,这引发了通缩的阴影。尽管北京自去年9月以来推出了一系列刺激经济措施,包括降低利率、支持股市和房地产市场以及增加银行贷款,但消费仍未能明显回升。

赖荣伟:中国美化数据后仍显示通缩恶化

TIA台湾励志协会执行长赖荣伟对本台表示,中国经济数据的可靠性受到广泛质疑,PPI数据被认为美化过,依然仍是负成长,显示实际通缩问题的严重性,这种结构性问题在2020年疫情爆发前已有迹象,疫情后进一步恶化。投资、消费、出口三大经济支柱相互影响,经济问题并非短期内可改善,即便官方数据显示改善,造假的可能性也很大。他说:“从投资角度看,全球对中国的投资虽未完全脱钩,但实际上正在减少,显示外资对中国市场的信心下降。”

《华尔街日报》:高善文惹怒习近平遭禁言

中国经济下行,境内经济学家解读数据高度敏感。12月时,中国经济学者高善文和付鹏,两人发表的言论与主流的“唱响经济光明论”相违背,两人的微信及短视频等社交媒体帐号都遭到封锁。

近日《华尔街日报》引述知情人士揭露,习近平下令对国有券商国投证券(SDIC Securities)首席经济学家高善文展开调查。高善文在彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)和一家中国智库举办的论坛中,质疑中国经济增长数据的可靠性。高善文说:“我自己的猜测是过去两到三年实际(国内生产总值GDP增速)数字平均可能在2%左右,尽管官方数字接近5%。”

“习近平要求‘数据姓党’,党要有什么数据,就要做出什么数据来,”汪浩表示,从实证数据和生活状况来看,中国的消费、基建投资等均处于低增长,所有的细项数据都欠佳,硬要叠加支撑高增长率的数据。若要凑足官方预期的增长数字,只能依靠数据造假。

中国GDP预测5%“隐形红线”

经济观察网报道,中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院预测科学研究中心(预测科学研究中心)发布2025年中国经济预测。“2025年中国的GDP增速初步预计在4.8%左右,但是如果各项的促进经济发展的增量政策措施能够有效落地,并且产生成效,2025年经济增速有望达到5%左右。”中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院副院长杨翠红研究员表示。

“2025年中国要达到4.8%和5%的经济增长目标是否过于乐观?”赖荣伟表示,中国官方数据的准确性和统计是否符合国际标准令人存疑,更多像是一种“信心喊话”。而且他们似乎不敢把目标调低到4%以下,更不敢接近3%,而“5%”的增长率从2020 年以来,更像是一条被揣摩出来的红线。

信贷评级机构穆迪去年12月将2025年中国GDP增长预测从4%上调至4.2%,较乐观的高盛去年10月将2025年中国GDP增速预期从4.3%,上调至4.7%,都未达5%。

责编:许书婷 陈美华

© REUTERS

中国9日公布CPI同比上涨0.1%,PPI同比下降2.3%,PPI是连续27个月下跌,引发通缩疑虑。

'Where do I go?' Chaos on Hollywood streets as people flee flames

9 January 2025 at 15:41
Christal Hayes Anna Waldman gestures a peace sign as she stands with her belongings and three dogs in a trolley. Christal Hayes
Anna Waldman with her three dogs.

Raging wildfires surrounding Los Angeles have spread to Hollywood Hills, a residential neighbourhood overlooking the historic Hollywood area of the city.

The Sunset fire broke out at around 18:00 (14:00 GMT) local time on Wednesday, covering much of Hollywood in thick smoke and forcing an evacuation order.

While driving in Hollywood, I saw many people running away from their homes with whatever belongings they could carry.

As I pulled over, some of them responded to me in fear and anxiety.

"Are you here to help people? Where do I go?" Anna Waldman asked as I got out of my car.

"Where is it safe?"

Above us, sirens had gone off and helicopter blades were whipping.

As I helped her get to a safe area, she told me she was walking her dogs and had planned to stop by a grocery store when she smelled heavy smoke.

She went back home, looked out her windows, and watched the fire move quickly through the Hollywood Hills to within a block from her home.

She packed what she could: food, clothes, blankets, food for her three small dogs.

"I can't believe this," she said in exhaustion.

Makayla Jackson, 26, held her two-year-old son Ramari on the corner of a street as they waited for a ride. They had been evacuated from a homeless shelter that was in danger of burning.

"They just told us to get out and go," she told me.

She said she was heading toward Hollywood High School, where more help was being offered.

Christal Hayes A woman with her daughter stands on a road with a suitcase in one hand and a bag in another. Christal Hayes

Much of the heart of Hollywood is blanketed in thick smoke. You can barely see the tops of the towering palm trees that line streets here.

It is utter chaos on the streets near the fire. People are using sweatshirts to cover their faces so they can breathe. Many are carrying bags and suitcases looking for a place to go.

Some are wearing pyjamas, clearly taken by surprise.

Christal Hayes Several cars lined up on a road near the blaze. 


Christal Hayes

Many of the roads near the blaze, such as the iconic Hollywood Boulevard, which includes the Hollywood Walk of Fame, are gridlocked with traffic.

Some are even driving on the wrong side of the road to escape.

The inferno could be seen from nearby freeways, lighting up the dark with bright red hues.

On the outskirts of the legendary city though, it is as though nothing is happening. People are eating dinner, shopping and going about their evenings.

Mozambique opposition leader returns after post-election violence

9 January 2025 at 17:38
Venancio Mondlane in dark glasses with flower garland surrounded by people

Mozambique’s opposition leader, Venâncio Mondlane, has returned to the country from self-imposed exile, saying he was ready for talks with the government after claiming October’s elections were stolen from him.

In large dark sunglasses, Mondlane dropped to his knees as he exited the arrivals door of Maputo’s international airport and appeared to be praying. He spoke to journalists outside, wearing a fake flower garland, before his car edged through crowds of cheering supporters.

Mozambique has been beset by protests since the 9 October presidential and parliamentary votes, which Mondlane and his allied party Podemos said they had won. More than 280 people have been killed by security forces, according to the Centre for Public Integrity, a local monitoring group.

“I had to break this narrative that I was absent because of my own will,” Mondlane told reporters in comments that were also broadcast live on his Facebook page. “So I’m here present, I’m here in the flesh, I’m here to say that if they want to negotiate, if you want to talk to me, if you want to sit down for a discussion, I’m here.”

The charismatic populist said he had also returned to witness what he labelled a “silent genocide” of his supporters and to defend himself against charges that he was culpable for damage caused during the protests.

Daniel Chapo, the candidate for Frelimo, the party that has ruled Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975, is due to be sworn in as president on 15 January.

On 23 December, the country’s top court declared Chapo secured 65.2% of the vote, which triggered another wave of protests by supporters of Mondlane, who the court said won 24.2% of the vote.

Election observers have said there was evidence of vote rigging, but some analysts have cautioned that Frelimo may still have won without any manipulation.

The outgoing president, Felipe Nyusi, called for talks with Mondlane in November and said in December that they had spoken by phone.

Mondlane previously said he had left Mozambique for an undisclosed location for fear of being assassinated. On 19 October, two of his allies, Elvino Dias, a lawyer, and Paulo Guambe, a film-maker and Podemos official, were shot dead by unknown attackers.

No one has been arrested for the killings, which human rights researchers say fits a pattern of targeted killings of opposition figures without anyone being brought to justice.

写的 React 组件有 bug,知道原因但不会解决,求教

9 January 2025 at 15:59
lisianthus:

完整代码: https://codesandbox.io/p/sandbox/d8kjg2

最近自娱自乐时,写了一个类似高中物理的木板-滑块组件,可以根据木板的角度来控制小球的位置,见图: https://imgur.com/a/Eo2briC

组件有个问题,在旋转到 90 度附近时,值会突然从 0 跳到 100: https://imgur.com/a/kWmm3I4

我知道问题出在 handleMouseMove 函数里,斜率 k 在 90 度附近发生了跳变,但不会解决,求教

咨询数字人直播问题

By: Wowjik
9 January 2025 at 15:58
Wowjik:

目前公司想要实现一个数字人直播,要求: 1 、windows 本地部署 2 、可训练自己数字人形象 3 、TTS 驱动、可打断

目前看了几个开源项目,效果都不太好。 各位大佬有没有相关的项目推荐指导一下,付费项目效果不错的更佳,烦请各位大佬指导一二,有偿

小狼毫一站式解决方案,基于 98 五笔的尝试

9 January 2025 at 15:52
Arctic2021:

rimetool 开发完毕

rimetool 经过半年公测,功能基本稳定:

https://github.com/yanhuacuo/rimetool

作为对 rime 参数可视化的尝试,在有限的方案范畴内实现了「词库管理」、「主题管理」、「上屏行为控制」等方面的控制。

通过「薄荷模版」的兼容,已支持如下方案

  • 薄荷全拼
  • 小鹤双拼
  • 小鹤混输
  • 地球拼音
  • 98 五笔
  • 86 五笔
  • 极点五笔
  • 智能 ABC 拼音
  • 微软双拼
  • 搜狗双拼
  • 紫光双拼
  • 自然码双拼

当然,参数对齐度最好的,依然是 98 五笔模版。

现在,借由「 98 五笔资源库」发布了「小狼毫 98 五笔」,并将 rimetool 集成在内,实现了「方案+工具」一步到位。

  • [小狼毫 98 五笔]

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1sErzYbE6h/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

基本上,完成了一种形码方案可以在 rime 上实现的最理想状态:一切参数可视化,所见即所得。小白也能随心所欲地使用 rime ,就像使用搜狗、百度等大厂输入法一样。

功能示例

配色管理

比如,有些朋友用了 rime 很久,摸索着可以配出一种「微信配色」了,诚坦讲,这很了不起,因为 rime 的主题参数非常多,但是,rimetool 可以将这个成本降到「鼠标点一点」的地步:

[中州韵助手:配色演示] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Yz4218738/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

甚至,你可以给任何主题做即时重绘

[中州韵助手:修善旧主题] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV121421r7LB/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

内置多种风格主题,支持一键切换。这些主题风格,过去需要了解十几个参数的组合与搭配,手动做起来相当麻烦

[中州韵助手:一键变换排版风格] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gS421d79f/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

[中州韵助手:注解界符] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV192rXY2EcC/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

码表管理

支持码表一键换血,只要有「单行单义」或「单行多义」表,就可以鼠标点一点,完成导表换血。

支持在线加词,批量加词,即时调序,增删改查。

[中州韵助手:形码表导演示] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1u1421273w/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

[中州韵助手:可视化词库管理] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1YXCGYME77/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

[中州韵助手:词条调序演示] https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV139CGYqE5d/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=37920c8c7678220e3b54da59922b8164

全参数支持

小狼毫前端引入了许多新特性,rimetool 全面支持:

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新注册的 GitHub 账号使用页面上的 Copilot,提示: User is spammy,怎么解决?

By: ashin
9 January 2025 at 15:43
ashin:
  1. 我查了下网上的,很多被标记的账号,有的人提交工单恢复了
  2. 我打算提交工单,他要我开启二次验证,开了。
  3. 他又要我验证手机号码,但是不没有中国区号
  4. 我搞个虚拟号接码,失败

还有甚么办法吗?

我的账号是正常使用。现在受限的功能有:Copilot/Actions

Copilot 我可以理解它不给中国人用,但 Actions 又是啥意思,提示 Unable to enable Actions for this repository.

我被卡脖子了救救我?

帮家里人做了一段时间销售跑了几趟客户,回过头来对当程序员时的几个看法

By: hoodjannn
9 January 2025 at 15:42
hoodjannn:

因为家里做制造业小生意的,正好自己也离职状态,没事帮老爸代跑了几次客户,当了一个月的销售了。有几点感触比较深

  1. 自己社会化程度缺乏。可能因为长期在互联网大厂工作,三点一线,接触的人沟通已经形成了一种特定模式,比如适当地与产品以及跨部门之间拉扯,看上去很牛逼是不是?但真实涉及市场交易大家都是真金白银做底的,你会发现谈话有时非常直接。

  2. 过于注重面子。准确地说放不下身段,需要给人戴高帽的时候拉不下面子,需要匪气的时候又拔不出来。

  3. 不善于“骗”。这个“骗”字我这里加了一个引号,很多码农对技术又极大的信仰,觉得承载这种信仰需要一颗纯洁本分老老实实的内心。。。不知道别人是咋样的,反正我当初真就这么想的。任何市面上的产品都存在包装的成分,巧妙的话术和适当的诡计在自由经济市场上是很有必要的。

  4. 没必要纠结不在目标里的东西,并且学会给人台阶下。不说现实工作里的业务 battle 了,v 站上都有很多整天为了语言框架吵来吵去不停的,长期浸淫这种氛围容易养成无端的攻击性,只要能达到自己的目的,中途中可有可无的东西都可以忽略,注意力分散不值当。

大致就这些吧,29 了,感觉知道这些道理有点晚,可能一直温室里呆久了,和年轻的码农们分享下。

关于宽带上行限速的一个解决思路

By: Lentin
9 January 2025 at 15:35
Lentin:

根据 https://www.v2ex.com/t/1099956 这篇帖子推测,运营商对 speedtest 相关的域名有白名单策略
这样用 clash meta 套一层 vmess 的 ws 伪装,然后再起一条 tunnel 隧道搭配 wireguard 可以回家,顺便似乎还能解决 WG 对 ddns 的地址变动不能即时生效的问题

proxies:
  - name: HOME
    type: vmess
    server: DDNS.domain
    port: PORT
    uuid: UUID
    alterId: 0
    cipher: auto
    tls: false
    network: ws
    ws-opts:
      path: /
      headers:
        Host: speedtest.cn
tunnels:
  - udp,127.3.0.0:16384,WGserver:WGport,HOME

然后再把 WG 配置文件的 Endpoint 改成上面对应的地址

Endpoint = 127.3.0.0:16384

相比较于 udp2raw 这个配置更简单一些,当然 vmess 不是必需品,可以是别的协议+伪装……仅供思路参考……

关于 Gunicorn + Flask 在多进程中,日志轮转的一个 BUG

By: Koril
9 January 2025 at 15:30
Koril:

语言、框架、环境

Python3.11

Gunicorn + Flask + logging

Debian 12


问题

我在开发一个小型的 Python Web 应用,选用的是 Gunicorn + Flask 的方案,日志采用了官方自带的 logging 库。

业务及其简单,但接口请求量比较大,日志记录比较多,我看到官方提供了一个logging.handlers.TimedRotatingFileHandler的日志轮转处理器,就直接用了。

但是过了一段时间,我发现了日志丢失的问题:

假设 Gunicorn 启动了 3 个 worker 进程,进程号分别是 1001 、1002 和 1003 ,一开始启动 Gunicorn 时,3 个进程的日志都能正确的写入到 app.log 中,但是一旦发生了日志轮转,最终只有一个进程(比如 1001 )能够写入到新的 app.log 中,另外的 1002 和 1003 的日志就再也没有写入成功了。


我的猜测

我猜应该是和多进程日志处理和日志轮转相关的问题,轮转的时候,只有一个进程在切换 app.log ,其他进程找不到文件了,日志就丢失了?(我的猜测很粗糙,我不太理解原理)

当然,官方文档也提到了这点:

https://docs.python.org/zh-cn/3/howto/logging-cookbook.html#logging-to-a-single-file-from-multiple-processes

文档的建议是,使用 SocketHandler 或者 QueueHandler ,总之是单独使用一个进程处理日志。


提问

  1. 生产环境下,有什么好的解决方案?

  2. 刚刚上面的轮转日志丢失,更加具体的,本质的原理是什么?


代码

日志配置文件 logging.yaml 如下:

version:
  1

formatters:
  brief:
    format: '%(asctime)s - %(levelname)s - %(name)s - %(message)s'
  detail:
    format: '%(asctime)s - %(levelname)s - %(process)d - %(processName)s - %(name)s - %(filename)s - %(funcName)s - %(message)s'

handlers:
  console_handler:
    class: logging.StreamHandler
    level: DEBUG
    formatter: brief
    stream: ext://sys.stdout

  info_handler:
    class: logging.handlers.TimedRotatingFileHandler
    level: INFO
    formatter: detail
    filename: logs/app.log
    when: midnight
    backupCount: 2
    encoding: utf-8

  error_handler:
    class: logging.handlers.TimedRotatingFileHandler
    level: ERROR
    formatter: detail
    filename: logs/error.log
    when: midnight
    backupCount: 2
    encoding: utf-8

loggers:
  study-flask:
    level: DEBUG
    handlers: [console_handler, info_handler, error_handler]
    propagate: False

root:
  level: DEBUG
  handlers: [console_handler]

app.py 中关于日志配置的代码:

def log_config(log_config_file):
    dict_config = yaml.load(
        open(log_config_file, encoding='utf-8'),
        Loader=yaml.FullLoader
    )
    Path.mkdir(Path.cwd().joinpath("logs"), parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    logging.config.dictConfig(dict_config)


def create_app(config_mode):
    app = Flask(__name__)

    log_config('./logging.yaml')
    
    # ... 省略其他代码

AI 导航站,前 50 位提交的账号,免费提交 20 个 ai 相关的网站

By: RobinWM
9 January 2025 at 15:23
RobinWM: 做了一个 AI 导航站,刚起步,收录的站点还很少,会保持活跃,持续运营。
站点: https://aidirs.org
号外:现在开始,前 50 位成功提交网站并通过审核的账号,后续免费提交 20 个 AI 相关的网站。赌一把,万一这个站起来了。

断舍离与不停搬家

9 January 2025 at 15:17
airportIllIl:

最近又在搬家,感觉自己物欲好重,不经意间攒下好多零碎物品。从大学毕业以来到现在,已经是第四次搬家,有的物品从大学一直陪伴到现在,总觉得哪一刻就会用上,或者是单纯的舍不得。这次狠下心来,想要轻装上阵,往老家寄走好几个大包裹。

另一个感想是,在大城市混,确实容易没有归属感,一直在各种奔波,租房担心房东人品,前几个月终于申请到公司宿舍,想着终于能稳定生活、不再担心租房扯皮,然而,戏剧性地,最近润了,马上又要去到陌生环境。如果有了自己的房子,也许就算找工作也会限定在一个地理范围内,不像现在这样跨区奔波。不得不说,安稳也是一种幸福。

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