Inside Cipriani Wall Street, a lavish event space in the financial district, amid the sea of tuxedos and ball gowns, was white nationalist leader Jared Taylor. Across the room sat EmpathChan, an influencer who went viral recently for wearing blackface on Halloween. And appearing on stage was Markus Frohnmaier, a far-right German politician, whose political party the club had cheered with a German-language phrase popularized by the Nazis. At least nineteen other members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party joined him.
Just eight weeks after the city club’s statewide counterpart was disbanded by the New York State GOP, the city-based club showed on Saturday night how a Young Republican organization can throw a party. Its 113th annual gala came as local chapters are still reeling from the racist and antisemitic “I love Hitler” chat — and as the GOP faces a larger reckoning over whether anti-Jewish voices have space within the party.
On Saturday night, the festivities provided a glimpse of what the party’s youth wing looks like amid those conditions. Over the course of the gala, a club member struck an attendee in the face outside on the sidewalk, President Donald Trump was endorsed for a third term and a protester wearing a Nazi armband and waving a swastika-laden banner popped up from his seat to shout, “I guess we're all Nazis!” in an attempt to disrupt the event, according to two attendees and a release from Goofball, the group behind the protest.
The sold-out Cipriani served its signature bellini cocktail to attendees upon arrival. Zoltán Mága, a Hungarian violinist whose last name sparked jokes among the GOP faithful, performed during the six-course dinner, which featured baked tagliolini with mushrooms, prime rib and potatoes.
Meanwhile, Democratic state senators, assemblymembers and city council members were outside protesting the event at a demonstration hosted by the Manhattan Young Democrats.
“The people that are in that room, they were calling folks like me watermelon people,” said Assemblymember Jordan Wright, who is Black, referencing a line from the chats exposed by POLITICO. “They were being racist, they were being homophobic, they were idolizing Hitler.”
In October, POLITICO reported on a chat with a dozen Young Republicans who held leadership positions in chapters of the organization across the country. Since that initial report, at least seven people involved in the chats lost their jobs, including a Vermont state lawmaker who resigned. Two members of the chat apologized for the chats but blamed the rival city group for them coming to light
Later in the evening, white nationalist Nick Fuentes — whose friendly October interview with Tucker Carlson has splintered the GOP — lingered on the sidewalk outside Cipriani after the club’s organizers banned him from entering.
“This is the worst event they’ve ever thrown,” the club’s press chairman, Lucian Wintrich, told reporters huddled together in the “press pen” where the media was restricted for much of the event. Wintrich had been expressing frustration that the dozens of outlets he welcomed to the gala were relegated to a distant corner by his fellow organizers.
Conspicuously absent from Saturday night’s event were five GOP elected officials — including one congressman — who the club had announced would be there.
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) was advertised as scheduled to attend in an October email, but he didn’t show up. His team did not respond to requests for comment.
Neither did New York City GOP Council Member Inna Vernikov — who was brought on stage by Trump at the 2023 gala while she wore an Israeli-flag-themed gown. The local MAGA firebrand and longtime ally of the club skipped its event despite being promoted as an “honored guest” days before. Assemblymember Michael Tannousis and City Council Members David Carr and Frank Morano were also not seen, despite promotions touting their participation.
Vernikov and Tannousis declined to comment. Carr and Morano did not respond to requests for comment.
From the stage, the speakers took an increasingly anti-immigrant bent.
“If dubiously elected or rather naturalized illegal immigrants are polluting our politics, the new right must have courage to deport them,” said Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), in reference to his call to deport Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, which he said would “resurrect our nation.”
Earlier in the night, the club’s president, Stefano Forte, addressed attendees.
“We all know who the enemy is,” Forte said. “The enemy is who shot President Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. The enemy is who almost shot him again two weeks [later] in Mar-a-Lago…The enemy slanders us in the media, throws wide open our borders, replaces our native population.”
“For years, antisemitic rhetoric has dominated THE LEFT and has fully infiltrated the Democratic Party,” she wrote on X, saying such rhetoric led to the terror seen in Sydney. “Unfortunately, today the same venom has entered corners of the conservative movement and the hard RIGHT WING of the Republican Party. Lunatics like Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, who spew bigoted, racist and antisemitic rhetoric, should be condemned and excommunicated from the Republican Party never to be welcomed again … I will DISASSOCIATE myself from any event, individual, or organization whether Democrat or Republican, that welcomes these vile bigots into their mist, defends them or amplifies their voices.”
The club had a very different message about the attacks — one which was deleted from social media after POLITICO started asking questions about it.
“The horrific terror attack in Australia last night is more evidence that Remigration is the only path forward for Western countries,” the club wrote in the since-deleted post. “America, Germany, Australia, and the rest of Europe must implement Remigration or more shootings like this will be inevitable.”
Pauline von Pezold contributed to this report.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO's New York Playbook. Subscribe here.
After his son was repeatedly attacked, Rick Kuehner reached out to his suburban school, to the police and to other parents. The violence only got worse.
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Watch Panorama's undercover filming: "You'll make no money my friend unless you get all your parcels out. Get them all out."
When Becky ordered a Barbie doll for her daughter, she got a notification from delivery firm Evri saying it had arrived. There was just one problem: it was nowhere to be seen.
There was no parcel at her front door, in the Hampshire village of Twyford, and the photo she was sent of its location was not one she recognised.
Becky turned detective - and she discovered that reports of similar incidents nearby had "snowballed".
Around the corner, her neighbour Jonathan had received a similar notification. It showed a photo of a parcel of tools he was expecting - taken inside a car - but nothing had been delivered. He tried to take it up with Evri, but told BBC Panorama that "they don't respond - it's very frustrating".
"You feel like you're playing Russian roulette" as to whether the parcel is going to arrive, says customer Becky
With millions relying on delivery companies to send their parcels this Christmas, we have been investigating Evri, including sending a journalist undercover as a courier.
The company is a market leader, but a recent customer survey of the 11 biggest delivery firms by industry regulator, Ofcom, suggested Evri had the most issues for parcels not being delivered and the highest level of customer dissatisfaction.
Amazon and FedEx came top for customer satisfaction.
While Evri disputes Ofcom's findings, 30 current and former workers have told us problems are being caused by growing pressures on couriers."They have to deliver so much volume now for a decent pay," one told us.
The link between poor service and work pressures was further borne out by Panorama's investigation, which found:
Couriers at an Evri depot in the Midlands describing how to cut corners to complete deliveries on time - with one telling our undercover reporter: "You can even throw the parcel at the back door"
Changes to Evri's pay rates have led some workers to claim they are earning less than minimum wage
New, lower pay rates for so-called "small packets" were also affecting courier earnings, we were told
Larger items being "misbanded" as small packets, some couriers told us, including heavy flatpack furniture and radiators
In Hampshire, parcels started to go missing in Twyford six months after a regular courier, Dave, left Evri. He worked as an Evri courier for six years, often with his wife, and they earned about £60,000 a year between them.
Like all Evri couriers, Dave was self-employed. But, because Evri pays couriers by the parcel, and sets the rate per parcel, it felt like the company was in the driving seat.
Changes to Evri's parcel rates last January, meant it no longer made financial sense to carry on, Dave told us. It would have led to him being paid less than the minimum wage, he says.
The amount Evri couriers are paid depends on the size and weight of the parcels they deliver and how far they must travel.
Couriers like Dave, who was on an Evri Plus contract, are supposed to be guaranteed at least the National Minimum Wage - currently £12.21 per hour for those aged 21 and over.
Dave says he estimated that with Evri's changes, including a new "small packets" rate, he would earn £10 an hour.
"You were always looking over your shoulder, wondering what might come next in terms of reducing your rates," he told us. "So that you're paid less for what you're doing even though you're doing the same job."
Another Evri Plus courier told Panorama he could earn as little as £7 or £8 an hour at times, once fuel and his vehicle's running costs had been taken into account.
If I had accepted the pay cut, I would have been earning "well below minimum wage", says ex-Evri driver Dave
This shouldn't be happening - according to what Evri's legal director, Hugo Martin, told a parliamentary select committee in January. The company's paid-per-parcel model, he told MPs, made sure that "couriers earn well above national minimum wage".
The committee chair, Labour's Liam Byrne, has now told Panorama that because of the "categorical assurances" that people were not paid below the minimum wage, the company should now be recalled to Parliament to investigate the full picture.
His comments come as a separate, cross-party group of MPs expressed their own concerns about Evri's delivery record last week.
Evri gave us "categorical assurances that people were not paid below the minimum wage", says Liam Byrne, chair of the Business and Trade Committee at Westminster
We put Mr Byrne's comments to Evri and a spokesperson said company couriers "generate earnings significantly above the National Living Wage".
The National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage are currently the same for anyone aged over 21 - £12.21 an hour.
Average courier earnings, the Evri spokesperson continued, "exceeded £20 an hour". The "sector is highly competitive, but we benchmark pay locally", they added.
Small packets, small fees
It wasn't just Dave who told us the introduction of Evri's "small packets" has made it harder to make a living.
Other couriers told us they had started to see more of them in their rounds, and that it was eating into their earnings because they received less money to deliver them.
Rates vary, but Evri pays couriers as little as 35p to deliver one.
The company told us it had introduced the new "small packets" sizing in January to "remain competitive".
However, big parcels, for which couriers would be paid more per delivery, keep getting mislabelled as small packets, some couriers told the BBC.
Getty Images
Evri introduced "small packets" parcel size in January - which it can pay couriers as little as 35p to deliver
Evri does not do enough to check the items are being accurately weighed and measured by senders, they said - with heavy flatpack furniture and radiators listed as examples of large items which had been "misbanded" and paid for as small packets.
One courier told us he delivered "countless numbers of misbands", leaving him short-changed.
Parcels are labelled by clients, not Evri, the company told the BBC. It said that 99.2% of all parcels were correctly banded - and that "couriers can request checks and upgrades via the courier app, if they think a parcel has been misbanded".
'There's a safe space for everything, mate'
An Evri courier of 10 years told us their colleagues were "cutting corners" because they had to deliver so much in terms of volume to get a decent wage.
"They are not doing the job correctly… parcels go missing," he added. "Piles of parcels are found in hedges."
Our undercover reporter, who we are calling Sam because he wants to remain anonymous, was told by another courier, "if you want to earn money, you need to find a safe place and leave it there".
"You can even throw the parcel at the back door, you only get paid if the parcel is delivered," the courier explained during Sam's six-day stint in October at Evri's West Hallam delivery unit near Nottingham.
As a new starter, Sam was put on a Flex contract, which does not include sick or holiday pay and does not commit to paying the minimum wage, unlike the Plus contract.
It can be difficult for new starters to earn the same as more experienced couriers, as they don't know their patch, so they won't be as efficient.
Sam was told he could be eligible for some extra cash. New starters get payments to ensure they earn adequately while they get used to the work, Evri's lawyers told the BBC.
Couriers told us they are not paid extra for the time it takes to scan the parcels and load them into their vehicles at depots - but Evri says it factors this time into its parcel rates.
"You only get paid if the parcel is delivered. Never take it back," said one courier
Couriers are also only paid if a package is delivered and a photograph is taken - which is supposed to mean giving it to the customer, a neighbour, or finding a safe place, and not leaving it in plain sight outside the delivery address.
If drivers cannot deliver a parcel, they should make at least two more attempts to do so - according to Evri rules - but this takes time.
Back at the depot, a courier told Sam there was not much point trying to redeliver because couriers did not get paid for going back.
"You'll make no money, my friend, unless you get all your parcels out. Get them all out," he said. "There's a safe space for everything, mate."
You can deliver 50 parcels an hour on a round, a supervisor tells our undercover reporter
The company says it will deliver about 900 million parcels this year, going to almost every single home in the UK.
But 7% of customers in the six months between January and July said they had reported an Evri parcel not having been delivered - compared to an industry average of 4% - according to Ofcom's recent consumer survey.
The survey also suggested Evri had the most issues for delays in the UK, with 14% of customers reporting a parcel arriving late in the same period. The industry average is 8%, says Ofcom.
Evri told us it provides "a fast, reliable, and cost-effective delivery service" and that its "couriers are local people… and the vast majority do an excellent job and strictly follow our delivery standards".
If "a courier receives a low customer rating for a delivery, this is immediately investigated", it says.
The company, which rebranded from Hermes UK in 2022, has been owned since last year by the American investment firm Apollo Global Management. In the financial year 2023-24, Evri's pre-tax profit almost doubled to nearly £120m.
"I think Evri are making a fortune off the couriers' backs and I think the couriers are being totally ripped off," one courier told us.
For Becky and Jonathan in Hampshire, at least, all was not lost.
Becky started a spreadsheet for other people in the area to list their missing Evri parcels, after seeing how many comments were being left on the village Facebook group.
Almost 90 incidents were reported to the police. A man was arrested but never charged.
Lawyers for Evri told the BBC that this was an isolated incident and that the company took prompt action.
"The performance of our couriers is tracked in real time, with mandatory photo proof for every delivery," the company said.
Becky got a refund from the seller and bought a new Barbie, and Jonathan got his tools replaced by the seller.
Police inspect a bridge used by the gunmen as a firing-point
Two gunmen - identified by authorities as a father and son - opened fire on hundreds of people marking a Hanukkah event on Sydney's Bondi Beach on Sunday, killing 15 and leaving 27 in hospital with injuries.
The father was killed in an exchange of fire with police at the scene while the son is in hospital with critical injuries.
Among the victims of the country's worst mass shooting in decades, which targeted Jewish people and is being treated as a terrorist incident, are a 10-year-old girl, a Holocaust survivor and two rabbis.
The attackers are both said to have pledged allegiance to the Islamic Sate group. Here is what we know about them.
Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke confirmed the relationship between the two gunmen without naming them.
Australian public broadcaster ABC did name them as Naveed Akram, 24 - who is in hospital under police guard - and his dead father Sajid Akram, 50.
Burke indicated the father held permanent residency in Australia, without giving details of his nationality.
The minister said he arrived in the country on a student visa in 1998. Later, in 2001, he transferred to a partner visa and subsequently obtained Resident Return Visas after trips overseas.
The son, he said, is an Australian-born citizen.
'Allegiance to Islamic State'
The son first came to the attention of the Australian intelligence agency (ASIO) in 2019, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed.
"He was examined on the basis of being associated with others and the assessment was made that there was no indication of any ongoing threat or threat of him engaging in violence," the prime minister said.
Albanese said the two gunmen had acted alone and were not part of a wider extremist cell. They had, he said, been "clearly" motivated by "extremist ideology".
Two IS flags were found in the men's car at Bondi, senior officials told ABC, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A senior JCTT official, again speaking on condition of anonymity, said the ASIO had taken an interest in Naveed Akram in 2019 after police foiled plans for an IS attack.
Naveed Akram, the official said, was "closely connected" to Isaac El Matari, who was jailed in 2021 for seven years in Australia for terrorist offences.
Matari had declared himself the IS commander for Australia.
Firearms licence
The gunmen appear to have used long-barrelled guns during the attack, firing them from a small bridge.
A number of improvised explosive devices were also found in the gunmen's car, Albanese said.
New South Wales Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon said the force had recovered six firearms from the scene and confirmed that six firearms had been licensed to the father.
Sajid Akram had met the eligibility for a firearms licence for recreational hunting, Commissioner Lanyon said.
"In terms of a firearms licence, the firearms registry conducts a thorough examination of all applications to ensure a person is fit and proper to hold a firearms licence," he said.
Eligibility for a game hunting licence in NSW depends on the type of animal individuals wish to hunt, the reason for hunting and the land they want to hunt on.
'Normal people'
Watch: BBC's Katy Watson reports from Bondi gunmen's house
Naveed and Sajid Akram lived in the south-west Sydney suburb of Bonnyrigg, about an hour's drive inland from Bondi.
A few weeks before Sunday's shooting, the two men moved into an Airbnb in the suburb of Campsie, a drive of 15 to 20 minutes.
Three people at the house in Bonnyrigg were arrested overnight during a police raid but released without charge and brought back to the property.
BBC News tried to approach them on Monday but they would not come out to speak to the media.
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, a woman who identified herself as the wife and mother of the gunmen had told them on Sunday evening that the pair had said they were going on a fishing trip before heading to Bondi
Reuters news agency describes Bonnyrigg as a working-class, well-kept enclave with an ethnically diverse population.
Local residents told the agency that the Akram family had kept to themselves but seemed like any other in the suburb.
"I always see the man and the woman and the son," said Lemanatua Fatu, 66. "They are normal people."
'Not everyone who recites the Quran understands it'
Naveed Akram studied the Quran and Arabic language for a year at Al Murad Institute in western Sydney after applying in late 2019, ABC reports.
Institute founder Adam Ismail said the Bondi shooting was a "horrific shock" and such attacks were forbidden in Islam.
"What I find completely ironic is that the very Quran he was learning to recite clearly states that taking one innocent life is like killing all of humanity," he said on Monday.
"This makes it clear that what unfolded yesterday at Bondi is completely forbidden in Islam. Not everyone who recites the Quran understands it or lives by its teachings, and sadly that appears to be the case here."
Supporters of José Antonio Kast celebrated his victory
Chile is perceived by many of its neighbours in the Latin American region as a safer, more stable haven.
But inside the country, that perception has unravelled as voters worried about security, immigration and crime chose José Antonio Kast to be their next president.
Kast is a hardline conservative who has praised General Augusto Pinochet, Chile's former right-wing dictator whose US-backed coup ushered in 17 years of military rule marked by torture, disappearances and censorship.
To his critics, Kast's family history, including his German-born father's membership in the Nazi Party and his brother's time as a minister under Pinochet, is unsettling.
However, some of Kast's supporters openly defend Pinochet's rule, arguing that Chile was more peaceful then.
In a nod to Chile's past and to accusations levelled at other right-wing leaders in the region after they imposed military crackdowns on organised crime, the 59-year-old pledged in his first speech as president-elect that his promise to lead an "emergency government" would not mean "authoritarianism".
Sunday's election makes Chile the latest country in Latin America to decisively swing from the left to the right, following Argentina, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama.
Peru, Colombia and Brazil face pivotal elections next year.
Kast's victory places Chile within a growing bloc of conservative governments likely to align with US President Donald Trump, particularly on migration and security.
In some cases, like that of Argentina, inflation and economic crisis drove the shift. In others, it was a backlash against leftist governments mired in corruption or infighting.
In Chile, immigration and crime seemed to swing it.
Kast promised a border wall and mass deportations of undocumented migrants.
At rallies, he counted down the days until the inauguration and warned that those without papers should leave by then if they wanted the chance to ever return.
His message resonated in a country which has seen a rapid growth in its foreign-born population. Government figures show that by 2023 there were nearly two million non-nationals living in Chile, a 46% increase from 2018.
The government estimates about 336,000 undocumented migrants live in Chile, many from Venezuela.
The speed of that change has unsettled many Chileans.
"Chile was not prepared to receive the wave of immigration it did," says Jeremías Alonso, a Kast supporter who volunteered to mobilise young voters during the campaign.
He rejects critics' accusations that Kast's rhetoric amounts to xenophobia.
"What Kast is saying is that foreigners should come to Chile, let them come to work, but they should enter properly through the door, not through the window," he says, arguing that undocumented migrants are a strain on taxpayer-funded public services.
He says his working-class neighbourhood has experienced "the social changes that irregular immigration brings in terms of crime, drug addiction and security".
Jeremías Alonso supported José Antonio Kast in the election
Kast has blamed rising crime on immigration, an allegation that resonates politically even as the number of murders has fallen since peaking in 2022, and despite some studies suggesting migrants commit fewer crimes on average.
Many voters cite organised crime, drug trafficking, thefts and carjackings as contributing towards their sense of insecurity.
Kast's victory message is that migrants will be welcome if they comply with the law, criminals will be locked up and order will return to the streets.
He, like Trump, is expected to move quickly to demonstrate an "iron fist" approach, deploying the military to the border and probably promoting his crackdown through social media.
But in practice, large-scale deportations will be difficult.
Venezuela does not accept deportees from Chile and deportations have so far been limited.
Kast seems to hope his rhetoric will encourage irregular migrants to leave voluntarily. But this is unlikely to compel hundreds of thousands to pack up.
Gabriel, who is from Venezuela, felt hurt by comments diners made about migrants
For irregular migrants already in Chile, the future feels uncertain.
Gabriel Funez, a Venezuelan waiter, moved to Chile four years ago, crossing the land border irregularly to escape his country's "very, very bad economic situation".
He has since submitted his documents to police and immigration authorities and received a temporary ID so he can pay taxes but has so far had no response to his visa request.
His salary is currently being paid into a friend's bank account. "I'm basically a ghost here," he says.
While he fears deportation, his bigger concern is a rise in xenophobia, which he says has already increased.
"Kast is expressing what many Chileans want to express. He's validating it," he said.
He recalls how at the restaurant where he works, he served diners who were discussing how migrants should leave.
"It was uncomfortable. I'm a foreigner, and I'm hearing all those super hurtful words."
He explains that about 90% percent of the restaurant's staff are migrants.
With migrants increasingly key to Chilean businesses, Kast could come up against opposition from those relying on foreign labour for their business.
Carlos Alberto Cossio, a Bolivian national who has lived in Chile for 35 years, runs a business making and delivering salteñas, savoury Bolivian pastries.
Carlos Alberto Cossio says migrant workers are key to his business
He says he has often employed workers from Haiti, Colombia and Venezuela and insists that "the migrant workforce is very important".
He explains that migrants are eager to work and less likely to change jobs as they rely on their employer for a contract visa until they are issued with a permanent visa.
"Many companies, especially in fruit harvesting, employ migrant workers who are not necessarily registered," he adds.
Expelling unregistered workers "will impact Chile's export economy and make raw materials more expensive," he warns.
Mr Cossio acknowledges that there has been some friction since large numbers of migrants arrived from Venezuela to escape the economic and political crisis there.
"Many of the customs they have brought haven't been compatible with Chilean customs," he says, lamenting how this has damaged the reputation of migrants who want to work and contribute.
Mr Kast's party lacks a majority in Congress, meaning some of his proposals, from tougher sentencing to maximum-security prisons, may require compromise and negotiation.
But for many voters, the perception of control may matter just as much as delivering results as anxiety over crime, insecurity and migration is sweeping the continent.
Two people have been found dead at a home in Los Angeles identified by authorities as the residence of director and actor Rob Reiner, authorities say.
Firefighters were called to a house in Brentwood on Sunday afternoon, where they found the bodies of a 78-year-old man and 68-year-old woman who were pronounced dead at the scene, the LA Fire Department said.
Authorities did not immediately identify them or the circumstances surrounding their deaths.
Rob Reiner is 78 and his wife, Michele, is 68.
Reiner is a storied Hollywood filmmaker whose movies include classics such as The Princess Bride, When Harry Met Sally, and This is Spinal Tap.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.
Experts say the climate crisis is in part responsible for the extreme weather fluctuations
Flash floods have killed at least 37 people in Morocco's coastal Safi region, according to state-owned television.
Cars and mounds of rubbish were seen sweeping through the main port city of Safi after torrential rain hit on Sunday.
Dozens of people have been receiving treatment in hospital for their injuries, say local authorities, and at least 70 homes have been inundated in the old city centre.
Local reports say access to and from the city is blocked on certain roads because of damage and debris.
Residents on Sunday described it as a dark day, with one telling the AFP news agency: "I've lost all my clothes. Only my neighbour gave me some to cover myself. I have nothing left. I've lost everything."
Another survivor said he wanted to see government trucks at the scene to pump out the water.
Moroccan authorities say search and rescue missions are still under way.
Experts say the climate crisis is in part responsible for the extreme weather fluctuations seen in the North African state.
It has suffered seven years of drought in a row, depleting its reservoirs.
Last year was officially the hottest ever on record.
This latest, sudden downpour is expected to continue on Tuesday together with snowfall across the Atlas mountains, Morocco's weather service warns.
Democrats are mourning the death of actor and director Rob Reiner and his wife Michele Singer Reiner after they were found dead in their California home on Sunday. The Hollywood star was known not only for classic films like “The Princess Bride” and “When Harry Met Sally,” but for his outspoken support of progressive causes.
Former President Barack Obama said he and Michelle Obama were “heartbroken” by the news. Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Reiner “fought for America’s democracy.” And former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called him “remarkable and excellent” in everything he pursued.
“Rob’s achievements in film and television gave us some of our most cherished stories on screen,” Obama said in a statement. “But beneath all of the stories he produced was a deep belief in the goodness of people — and a lifelong commitment to putting that belief into action. Together, he and his wife lived lives defined by purpose. They will be remembered for the values they championed and the countless people they inspired.”
Reiner and Singer Reiner’s bodies were discovered in their Los Angeles home on Sunday after the Los Angeles Fire Department responded to a medical aid request shortly after 3:30 p.m., according to The Associated Press.
Authorities are investigating their deaths as an “apparent homicide,” said Capt. Mike Bland of the Los Angeles Police Department. Authorities announced on Monday that Reiner's son, Nick Reiner, is in custody as a suspect in the case. He has been booked for murder and is being held on $4 million bail.
Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer called the news of the Reiners’ death “horrific.”
“Not only was Rob an incredibly talented actor & director, he was also a relentless defender of democracy and the values so many of us share,” Schumer said. “He will be missed dearly. My prayers this morning are with the Reiner family and all those who loved his movies and what he and Michele stood for.”
“Personally, Rob cared deeply about people and demonstrated that in his civic activities — whether by supporting the First 5 initiative or fighting against Prop 8 in California,” said Pelosi, referring to the California Children and Families Commission, which supports programs for children under 5 years old. Proposition 8 was California’s 2008 ballot proposal to ban same-sex marriage.
Pelosi continued, “Civically, he was a champion for the First Amendment and the creative rights of artists. And professionally, he was an iconic figure in film who made us laugh, cry and think with the movies he created.”
The son of legendary comedian Carl Reiner, Rob Reiner was a strong supporter of LGTBQ+ rights and early childhood education. Reiner often held fundraisers and campaigned for Democratic issues. In 2008, he co-founded the American Foundation for Equal Rights, which challenged California’s ban on same-sex marriage. In 1998, as chair of the campaign for the state’s Proposition 10, which led to the creation of the First 5 initiative, Reiner advocated for funding early childhood development services with a tax on tobacco products.
He was also a sharp critic of President Donald Trump, previously accusing the president of “treason” and being “mentally unfit” to serve in office. In an October interview with MSNBC, now MS NOW, Reiner compared the current political climate under the Trump administration as “beyond McCarthy era-esque.”
“Make no mistake: We have a year before this country becomes a full-on autocracy and democracy completely leaves us," Reiner said at the time. “I believe the way to stop it is to educate people who may not understand what democracy is. They may not know what the impact of losing it is. We have to explain it, us storytellers have to explain to them what they’re going to wind up with if an autocrat has his way."
“Rob Reiner's work has impacted generations of Americans,” she said. “The characters, dialogue, and visuals he brought to life in film and television are woven throughout our culture. Rob loved our country, cared deeply about the future of our nation, and fought for America's democracy.”
“His boundless empathy made his stories timeless, teaching generations how to see goodness and righteousness in others — and encouraging us to dream bigger,” said Newsom in a statement. “That empathy extended well beyond his films. Rob was a passionate advocate for children and for civil rights — from taking on Big Tobacco, fighting for marriage equality, to serving as a powerful voice in early education. He made California a better place through his good works.”
Newsom added that Reiner will be remembered for his “extraordinary contribution to humanity.”
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass called the Reiners’ deaths a “devastating loss” for both the city and the nation.
“Rob Reiner’s contributions reverberate throughout American culture and society, and he has improved countless lives through his creative work and advocacy fighting for social and economic justice,” Bass said in a post on X.
is president of the Council on Foreign Relations, former U.S. Trade Representative, and a substacker. He joins ChinaTalk to discuss:
Why his 1992 dissertation on détente is suddenly relevant again – and why “positive linkage” fails to change adversary behavior,
How mutual assured destruction has shifted from nuclear weapons to rare earths, supply chains, and technology, and why the U.S. and China are stuck in a costly, uncomfortable stalemate,
How think tanks work — salary levels, where the money comes from, and what to expect from Mike’s tenure.
Jordan Schneider: We’re going to take it all the way back to 1992. You did your dissertation about this idea of détente and how it evolved from the ’50s all the way through the end of the Reagan administration. Coming to your conclusion, the echoes of where we are today and that theme seem to be very striking. Why don’t you pick a quote and then kick it off from there?
Mike Froman: “To retain the support of the American public, U.S.-Soviet relations must be based on reciprocity. Détente suffered no greater liability than the public’s perception that the Soviets exploited it at the United States’ expense. To be reciprocal, however, U.S. policy must embody reasonable expectations.”
Mike Froman: I thought I was writing a historic piece. The end of the Cold War came. I put the book on the shelf, thought it would never be opened again. And yet, Jordan, there you found it and indeed have highlighted that there might be some relevance to the U.S.-China relationship today.
Jordan Schneider: I played this game with Kurt Campbell. He did his thesis on Soviet relations with South Africa and the tensions of how the U.S. navigated that dynamic. Everything’s coming back.
We’re sitting here in the fall of 2025. We have a president who is probably as far towards the “let’s do détente” mindset as you could have gotten in this political moment. What do you think are the bounds of what an American president today could domestically go towards if they were in a détente mindset?
Mike Froman: The issue of détente back in the old Soviet days was — was it a strategy to transform the Soviet Union by engaging with it, or was it a reflection that we had to engage with it because we had overwhelming common interests? Some of those are the same questions that come up today in the U.S.-China relationship. Do we think we can fundamentally change the trajectory of China, or do we just simply have to accept it and live with it, coexist with it, and create some rules of the road for managing potential conflicts?
Any president right now figuring out how to coexist with China will have to determine — where do we need to cooperate on issues of national security? Where do we have to compete around the economy and technology? And where do we have to be very careful to manage potential conflicts that could blow up and create a kinetic conflict between us — whether around Taiwan, the South China Sea, or otherwise? Balancing those different baskets of interests is the most challenging thing for any administration to deal with.
Jordan Schneider: You wrote, “The theory of using détente as a means of transformation was based largely on the misguided assumption that the U.S. could use cooperation on common interests as a source of leverage over conflicting ones. Positive linkage was not particularly effective, however, because success in areas of common interest did not easily translate into success in areas of divergent ones.”
You published this book in 1992, which is a key moment of translating that kind of — in your estimation — flawed thinking of how we went about this with the Soviet Union to the next 25 or 30 years of American policy towards China. Can you talk about those parallels?
Mike Froman: Yes. The U.S.-China relationship is quite a bit different than the U.S.-Soviet relationship, first and foremost because of our economic interdependence. Russia and the Soviet Union were never terribly significant economic players in the global economy, whereas China very much is. We have developed over the last several decades a great deal of interdependence with them.
The leverage question’s a little bit different. Could you use economic leverage — the fact that we have a common interest in maintaining strong trade relations — as positive linkage into other issues? Or could you cooperate in areas like climate change, which both sides thought at one point were of common interest, and translate that into broader cooperation in other issues?
Having said all that, you’re right to point out that it’s proved to be relatively limited. In China’s view, they in many respects separated areas of common interest from areas of potential conflict and from areas of competition, and were unwilling to allow cooperation in one area to really affect their interests and how they pursue them in the others.
“Peace, Détente, Cooperation.” A Soviet propaganda poster from 1983. Source.
Jordan Schneider: What is your sense of why the theory of the case was so directly ported over to China? The argument through the Clinton administration, Bush administration, first half of Obama was basically — we’re going to develop leverage, develop these common interests and they’ll see the light. We didn’t get that these are both two party-led systems. There are some commonalities, but there are pieces of learning that maybe folks overlooked from that experience. It felt like a brave new world. Given your view over the past 30 years of this arc, what do you think got lost in translation there?
Mike Froman: If the Cold War was defined at least in part by an ideological battle between Western liberal, capitalist, market-oriented, democratic-oriented principles and the communist totalitarian principles of the former Soviet Union, the view at the end of the Cold War was that it was much more of a unipolar moment. Not necessarily U.S. hegemony, but the hegemony of the open liberal democratic capitalist perspective.
That was embraced by China. If you go back to the days of Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji and the reform trajectory that they laid out, they were very much on the path towards market-oriented reforms, opening up — not necessarily democracy. Those who thought that opening up on the economic side would lead to political pluralism were probably being overly optimistic. But there was certainly a view that China was on a path towards greater integration in the global economy, which they have been, and greater market-oriented policies to help lead them there.
They were on that trajectory for quite a while. It didn’t go as far or as fast and it wasn’t as linear as people expected. The advent of President Xi, who was willing to either stop or reverse some of those reforms, was probably not as anticipated as proved to be necessary.
There was this dominance of a set of principles that we thought could bring China into the international system and bring the U.S. and China into a more cooperative relationship. What happened was that China changed course and didn’t go as far as we expected. Indeed, China reversed many of the gains that we thought we had seen.
Escalation Dominance and Stalemate
Jordan Schneider: Escalation dominance — a phrase we thought was dead and dusted in the bin of history — is now back. Is this the right mental framework folks should be using when thinking about these trade wars? What is and isn’t useful when trying to take the arms control frameworks and put them onto what you’re seeing with the U.S. and China with respect to economics and technology?
Mike Froman: There certainly is a rigorous competition between the two in technology, economics, and military. The Chinese buildup of both its conventional and nuclear forces is very much top of mind.
Where the analogy may play out — it does come from nuclear weapons, but it’s not necessarily the escalation issues. It’s really back to the notion of mutual assured destruction. What we’ve seen more recently in the U.S.-China relationship is we have leverage in terms of access to our markets and access to our technology, but China too has leverage in terms of their capacity to control critical choke points of key technologies — whether it’s critical minerals, rare earths, magnets, et cetera. That’s, in my view, probably just the tip of the iceberg of the kinds of technologies and products that they control and that they have now demonstrated a willingness to use their leverage with us.
If anything, we’ve reached a stalemate where both sides realize that neither can escalate in a costless way. Indeed, it may require them to sit down and come up with some rules of the road for managing the relationship going forward.
“Back to Where it All Started,” Michael Cummings. Aug 1953. Source.
The number of nuclear warheads possessed by the U.S./USSR (Russia) from 1962-2010 in 1000s. Source.
Jordan Schneider: There’s this misreading of the history of the Cold War that once you had mutually assured destruction, everything was cool by the 1970s, which, as you as well as anyone know, was not necessarily the case. You had both countries developing new weapons systems and wrestling for that nuclear primacy and escalation dominance.
If we are in a world now where the U.S. and China both understand that they can take big, painful chunks of GDP without going to war or doing incredibly aggressive cyber attacks, where does that lead us? Because the game doesn’t stop, right? We’re still having different moves that both sides can play.
Mike Froman: Exactly. The competition doesn’t stop. As you said, back in the Cold War, it wasn’t all sweetness and light once you hit mutual assured destruction, but it did prevent a direct nuclear exchange between the two largest nuclear powers. They had to find other ways of positioning vis-à-vis each other, whether through proxy wars or other elements that allowed them to try and gain some advantage over each other.
That’s probably true here in the China relationship as well. It’s likely to lead to a certain degree of selective decoupling, whether it’s on advanced technology issues where we’ll go our way and China will go its way. The question is for the rest of the relationship — to what degree can there be a normalization of trade and other interactions?
There is a lot of non-strategic trade. The Trump administration is evolving in its views towards — what can we actually grow or produce here in the United States and where do we actually need to import from other countries? Can we take T-shirts and sneakers and toys from China without compromising our national security? I would think so. Allowing them in at a decent rate is good for particularly low-income Americans who spend a disproportionate amount of their disposable income on the basics of supporting their family.
But there are likely to be some technologies that we’re going to want to keep out of China’s hands, and China is going to have some choke point technologies that they can control over us. Hopefully that again reaches some sort of balance.
Jordan Schneider: Say we’re in 2028 and both countries have had three years to do more economic securitization and the size and amount of the bites that each country can take out of the other one diminishes. America has a few more mines. China does a better job of making semiconductors. Is the world in a more or less safe place? Or does just the fact that each side is still going to have this leverage — if they are the world’s two largest economies and still do trade — is that still the salient thing? Does playing around the edges even mean all that much?
Mike Froman: It’s unclear at this point because it’s very much a work in progress. It’s only been in the last few months that we’ve seen China’s willingness not only to turn off access to a particular batch of technologies like the magnets back in April 2025, but demonstrate a willingness to put in place a whole export control licensing system which could disrupt global supply chains in fundamental ways. They’ve now demonstrated their capacity to do that. We’ll see how they actually go about implementing it.
This ultimately could be, ironically, a force for stability with each side recognizing that the other side has some significant leverage. But to me, the bigger issue is we’re not really dealing with the other very significant questions in the relationship. The summit that President Trump and President Xi had in Korea — the main issues were fentanyl, soybeans and TikTok. We’re not asking ourselves: how do we get to the fundamental relationship between the two economies around China’s strategy of export-led growth, excess capacity, high subsidization of critical areas? How do we deal with that and the potential ongoing tensions that’s likely to create going forward?
Whether we’re on a more stable or a less stable path, in my view, depends on whether we get to those underlying issues and try and resolve some of those. Those have not yet been put back on the table, let alone issues like Taiwan, South China Sea, North Korea, nonproliferation, et cetera.
Jordan Schneider: We just had a whole conversation about how using international diplomacy as a means of domestic transformation is a bit of a fool’s errand, right?
Mike Froman: It’s not about domestic transformation. If you remember back in the Soviet Union, the idea was if we engaged with them or took other actions vis-à-vis them, somehow their system would collapse. They would see the values of democracy, the values of market orientation and everything would fall apart. They would inevitably collapse.
This isn’t about making China collapse. It’s about seeing whether we can come up with rules of the road so that China and the rest of the global economy can coexist without undue tension. Right now we’re not really dealing with those issues.
Jordan Schneider: If we’re defining “dealing with those issues” — for my first job out of college, I covered trade policy for the Eurasia Group. I was listening to every single one of your speeches trying to figure out if this meant like the U.S.-China BIT was 7% more likely to happen.
With the second Trump administration, there are two disjunctures that we’ve seen from the past 20 years of American foreign policymaking. The biggest one is just the risk tolerance and the ability to take big swings that may end up being either illegal or backfiring horribly, which the presidents that you worked for were a little more reluctant to do, for better or for worse.
If you’re sitting as USTR and you have the threat of putting 50% tariffs on the countries you’re negotiating with — be it China with a U.S.-China BIT or with all the allies that you were talking around with the TPP — to what extent do you think that unlocks new political economies and new negotiating paths that weren’t possible if at the end of the day you have a president who just wants to be nice to the countries that we have treaty allies with?
Mike Froman:The Trump administration’s threat and use of tariffs has created very significant negotiating leverage and has gotten countries to come to the table on a whole range of issues — whether it’s fentanyl, migration, or economic issues — and to agree to things that they previously would very likely not have agreed to. The administration in the short run has very much demonstrated that access to the U.S. market is a source of negotiating leverage and other countries have responded to it. They haven’t been happy about responding to it but that’s okay.
The question is what are the longer-term implications and whether it makes it more difficult to gain their cooperation on some other issue down the road. But only time will tell. In the meantime, if you had asked people a year ago whether we would have this raft of agreements that the administration has rolled out with anywhere between 10% and 25% or 30% tariffs on other countries — quite asymmetric agreements in many respects — most people would have said it was highly unlikely, but it has proven to be the case.
Purely from a negotiating point of view, if you have the capacity with credibility to put tariffs on regardless of your international obligations and regardless of the long-term implications, you can probably get a fair amount done in the short run.
By the way, the Trump administration’s skepticism about some of the mechanisms of engagement with China — like these big bilateral fora that we managed for years: the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Security Economic Dialogue, et cetera — I share some of that skepticism. They involved thousands of person-hours of work and produced communiqués which I don’t think necessarily advanced the ball that far and show the limitations of that form of diplomatic engagement.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t other forms of engagement that make sense, including ones backed up by a series of potential actions. But certainly it’s healthy to look back and say, what did these things accomplish and where can we do better?
Jordan Schneider: Looking forward, if there is a Democratic president in 2028 — a president that you would want to work for, who was less scared to play hardball the way the Trump administration has when it comes to access to the American domestic market — a president that you would be more sympathetic to in terms of their ultimate aims, where would you want to see the new leverage that has clearly been brought to the fore when it comes to domestic market access? How would you want to use those cards?
Mike Froman: Ultimately, it’s in the U.S. interest not to go it alone in a lot of areas, but to bring allies and partners into the arena. Using whatever leverage we have to get allies and partners to work with us on difficult issues — including a common approach to competition, a common approach to adversaries, a common approach to national defense, whether it’s support for NATO or engagement vis-à-vis China — those are all very important.
We don’t have to have everything reshored to the United States. If we have coalitions of the willing, coalitions of the ambitious, trusted allies and partners who we can work with to make sure we’ve got adequate supply to critical inputs that we need for our national security and for our competitiveness more broadly — I would use whatever leverage the U.S. has to bring our allies and partners to the table with that goal in mind.
Jordan Schneider: This idea of economic security is very nebulous. The Fed has this clear thing they’re trying to do — 2% inflation, full employment. It feels like all these discussions about what economic security is very quickly go into here’s what we should do for this sector, here’s what we do for that sector, here’s what we should do for this technology. But there’s not an overarching framework of what the end state we’re trying to achieve or work towards is.
I want to run an essay contest around how to define it in more concrete ways with numbers attached. How would you frame that question? If you had an answer or an equation off the top of your head, I’d be curious for that as well.
Mike Froman: First of all, you should read our recently released CFR task force report on economic security. The task force was co-chaired by Gina Raimondo, former Commerce Secretary, Justin Muzinich, former Treasury Deputy Secretary in the Trump administration, and Jim Taiclet, who’s the CEO of Lockheed. We had a couple dozen CFR members with a wide range of backgrounds in technology and defense.
I flag that because one of the fundamental sets of questions that the task force was focused on is — what are the parameters? What are the guardrails? What are the limiting principles on economic security?
For decades, the focus of economic policy really had been on efficiency — the most efficient supply chains around the world. Companies put their factories and sited their suppliers where it made most economic sense to do so. A lot of that ultimately led to China, given not just the labor differential, but also its infrastructure, its management practices, and just how efficient it was as a manufacturing floor for the U.S. We found ourselves overly dependent on one country, or in the case of semiconductors, on Taiwan and China.
What economic security fundamentally means is really proper risk management. The number one principle of risk management is diversification. You want diversified supply chains, resilient supply chains. Particularly when it comes to national security core interests — such as the materials that go into a missile or into an F-16 — we can’t be dependent on our adversary for them. Figuring out where to draw that line is the goal.
It’s easy to say missile parts, F-16 parts — we should not be dependent on China for those. But what about active pharmaceutical ingredients? What about the supply chain for semiconductors? What about PPE that we saw during COVID? Where do you draw the line?
That’s the big challenge for policymakers going forward because each of these involves a trade-off. There’s a reason the manufacturing was sited in China — it was the economically most efficient thing to do. Any other approach is going to be, almost by definition, more expensive, less efficient. That may well be worth the cost. The question is, how much are we willing to pay additional for whatever product it is in order to have more resilience, more redundancy, more diversification, and better national security?
We ought to be willing to pay something. The question is how much. Maybe we’re willing to pay a fair amount to make sure our semiconductors, our missile parts, our F-16 parts are made in the United States or in a close ally’s jurisdiction. But we may not be willing to pay quite as much to make sure our sneakers and our T-shirts and our socks are made in the United States. That’s the kind of conversation we should be having — really about trade-offs.
Jordan Schneider: My question was an implicit critique of that report because I think it skipped the base question and then went pretty quickly to this sector, that sector, the other sector.
Mike Froman: Let me push back on you, Jordan. It decided, instead of focusing just on the theoretical, to say — here are three critical sectors. We could have picked a dozen. Here are three critical sectors. Let’s see what it looks like through the lens of a particular use case. Whether it was AI, quantum, or biotechnology, those each have particular needs that need to be addressed. Everybody would agree that at least in those three areas, we need to be a leader in those technologies. How do we maintain that leadership?
Jordan Schneider: The core issue here is escalation dominance — when can China inflict enough politically visible pain on American policymakers to force them to back down?
When we define it down to even the non-perishable consumables — I am the father of a young child and hit this weird crunch where the tariffs made it such that you couldn’t find car seats because every car seat in the world is made in China, apparently. It just seems to me that there’s just so much that is going to be dependent on the two countries.
Maybe there’s some 80/20 or 90/10 principle where we’re still going to rely on China for 90% of the screws that go into the F-16s, and if they take 10% away, we’ll still have this much of our military capacity back. But closing the loop for all the things like you did in the 1960s relative to the U.S. and Soviet Union is not feasible.
It seems like there are two relevant variables here. One is the long-term GDP cut that China can make from being dominant in something. The other is how much short-term political pain can an adversary use to squeeze American policymakers to do something that they wouldn’t otherwise want to do. Is there another aspect to it? Am I missing something here?
Mike Froman: That captures it. But what you’re pointing out is very much the importance of distinguishing between the strategic and the non-strategic. That points to the broader relationship as well.
In the Biden administration, it was the phrase “small yard, high fence.” What goes in the yard for control, and how small can you keep it? They were pretty selective and pretty targeted in terms of how they viewed that. Maybe some things would need to be added, maybe some things can come out of it. But the question is: what should be deemed as strategic either from the perspective of keeping key technologies out of China’s hands or ensuring that we have redundancy so we’re not overly dependent on China? And what can go anyway? What can be sold anyway?
Even in the height of the Cold War, we were buying wheat from the Soviet Union. Wheat was seen as non-strategic and we could buy wheat from them and still be at odds over various issues. With China, where are we willing to draw that line? To me, that’s really the question for the next phase. As the Trump administration engages now, there’s been a stabilization of escalation and de-escalation. The next phase should be: how are we going to define this relationship going forward?
Jordan Schneider: The ability to cause pain to the other side is always going to be there, but what tool you use to cause pain is the question. We’ve thankfully had some great norms develop around the use of nuclear weapons. We’ve had some norms around the use of conventional forces — TBD on those. All of the cyber stuff between the U.S. and China thus far has been of the snooping, not of the blowing up power plants variety.
But the fundamental question I have around economic security is — say that China wants to retain leverage on the U.S. and get politicians to do things they wouldn’t otherwise do in their druthers. It just seems like there are so many levers that you can pull as a peer competitor in the 2000s. It makes me worried that we’re working toward an end state of being resilient if the other side doesn’t want you to be resilient. It seems like a marathon where the end isn’t even something that’s realistic. You see what I’m getting at, Mike?
Mike Froman: I do. I sense that you’re feeling overwhelmed by the challenge. But that should be our opportunity to rise to the challenge. There’s a certain urgency, I believe, in one, assessing what the key dependencies are. And two, assessing what it takes to address them. Is it a combination of tariffs, industrial policy, investment, and regulatory changes? What is the toolbox that we need?
Thinking very strategically about that — including where allies and partners can play a role because they’ve got capacity in certain areas that we don’t, or because they can supplement our capacity and help us get to scale more quickly — and building a bipartisan, ongoing consensus around what it takes is an urgent need. That helps you get to that point of saying, yes, it may seem overwhelming, but you’ve got to start somewhere.
That’s what we’re doing right now. That’s what the CHIPS and Science Act did during the Biden administration. It said we cannot be 100% dependent on Taiwan and China for the packaging, etc., of chips. We’re going to begin to rebuild chip manufacturing capacity in the United States. The question is, what additional sectors do we need to do?
Take shipbuilding. Everybody believes we need more ships, whether it’s for the Navy or for merchants or otherwise. We don’t have a huge amount of shipbuilding capacity anymore. Can we work with Japan, Korea, and Finland on icebreakers? Who can we partner with to get there?
Mission, Money, and Talent at the CFR
Jordan Schneider: You gave me a little transition there — building a bipartisan consensus for decades of policymaking going forward. That seems to double as your vision for what the point of a think tank or CFR is, particularly now. What are the KPIs we’re going to give for Mike Froman’s reign as president of the CFR?
Mike Froman: Our mission is to inform U.S. engagement with the world. There are lots of different ways to engage. Our job is to flesh out what are the different mechanisms for engaging with these goals in mind that we’ve just been talking about. What are the trade-offs involved? What are the costs and benefits of going down one path or the other and helping policymakers in their decision of how to pursue that? Also helping opinion leaders and the broader American public understand and get their input on which of those trade-offs they’re comfortable with. That’s an important part of what the Council does.
We’re focused on policymakers like most think tanks, but we’re also focused on the broader American public through broad education efforts and media efforts, digital, etc., programs around the rest of the country with the goal of getting their input into how they view the role of the U.S. in the world and to help inform policymakers accordingly.
Jordan Schneider: How are you going to do things differently? What’s the Mike Froman twist on all this?
Mike Froman: We’re taking a step back and saying, just as the Council did — the Council was founded in 1921 after the end of the First World War, after the defeat of the League of Nations — to organize around trying to push back against trends of isolationism. In 1948, it was a place where the Marshall Plan and NATO were very much being worked on. In 1991, at the end of the Cold War, there was a lot of talk about geoeconomics and bringing economics into the national security sphere as well.
From left to right: John W Davis, Elihu Root, Newton D Baker, Hamilton Fish Armstrong, the founding fathers of the CFR. Source.
This is another one of those inflection points. As a Council, we’re going to take a step back and say, where do we go from here? We’re going through a major disruption right now. Fundamental questions about the nature of the global economy, of the trading system, of alliances, of how to manage adversaries, how to compete — these are all on the table. How can we help policymakers and the broader public understand different options for pursuing U.S. national interests and the trade-offs involved in each?
It’s a major studies effort, a major research and analysis effort, but also a major education effort — engaging with more audiences, non-traditional audiences, different kinds of media to engage with the rest of the country and get a sense of their input as well.
Jordan Schneider: From an internal organization structure perspective, what do you think of the model? What needs to change?
Mike Froman: The Council’s been around for a long time and is actually well-positioned for this moment in history because we’re not just a think tank focused on trying to influence the couple thousand people in Washington that are sitting in these meetings and trying to make decisions. We’re also focused — as a membership organization, a publisher of Foreign Affairs, an educational organization that provides material to high schools and colleges — on the broader American public. We do events all over the country. We’re relatively well hedged to both work with policymakers on one hand and work with the rest of the country on the other hand.
Jordan Schneider: Let’s talk about money for a second. I assume you were on the other side of this in terms of large corporations funding various research efforts. What do you think about where funding comes from for think tanks in general, CFR in particular, and what makes sense and what doesn’t?
Mike Froman: Our funding’s obviously all public. It’s all on our website. It’s transparent. We don’t take any money from any government institution, including the U.S. government. We don’t take any money from corporations for research. Corporates can be members like other members and send their employees to our events, but they can’t involve themselves or set the agenda or influence our research agenda. That allows us to remain nonpartisan, allows us to remain independent. It’s one of the reasons that both our research and analysis and our publications are viewed highly as being independent and credible in that space.
What that means is we rely on — we’re a membership organization, so individuals pay dues. We’re blessed to have members who are philanthropic. We get money from foundations, some of the standard foundations that work in this area. That’s where our funding comes from. We have an endowment that’s been built up over the years as well, again, because of the generosity of our individual members.
Jordan Schneider: I’ve been on the other side of this, where you have a funder who is a corporation that wants you to write a certain thing. Do you think it’s unseemly? The dance is tricky, right? But without that, it would kind of only be CFR and Heritage left standing. There’s a lot of foreign government money as well.
Mike Froman: I’m not going to criticize my peers. I would just say that we’re lucky and we have a concerted strategy to make sure that we’re able to remain independent. That means no government money, no corporate money for research. That allows our fellows total freedom of speech. They can write whatever they like. As an institution, we take no institutional positions. We try to put our best research and analysis out there and make it available as broadly as possible.
Why are salaries so low
Jordan Schneider: Entry-level research associates come in with a $55K to $58K pay band at CFR. What are your thoughts on that, Mike?
Mike Froman: We would love to — we’re very lucky to have a great set of research assistants and entry-level people. There are a lot of people who want to go into the field of international relations. This is their first job. By the way, we view one of our core objectives of CFR as helping to identify, promote, and develop the next generation of diverse foreign policy expertise. We spend a lot of effort and time — whether it’s our interns, our research assistants, our junior staff, our term members — really focused on who the up-and-coming generation are, and what we can do to help them develop the skills and the expertise to succeed in that field.
As a nonprofit, obviously we’re subject to constraints, but we always look at what the market is and try our best to make sure we’re getting the very best quality people for the resources that we can expend.
Jordan Schneider: But it’s not a lot of money, right? These are really big, hard, important questions. It bums me out that we lose talent because folks who are coming out of school with debt or just see an opportunity to make 4x right out of college look at this field and say, “How can I go down this route?” It breaks my heart, really.
Term Members at CFR in 1970, the year CFR membership opened to women. Source.
Mike Froman: Having been at the beginning of my career once upon a time, I can relate to that. Luckily, we have a lot of interest in the Council by people coming out of college, coming out of graduate school. There’s significant demand for the openings that we have. We have a great group of junior staff and research assistants. I’m really impressed with them, and we take a lot of effort to make sure we’re doing everything we can to develop them professionally.
But I also say, Jordan, we’d be delighted to take a major donation from you to the Council to help endow a new research assistance endowment program if you like.
Jordan Schneider: That was my next question. I am surprised that there isn’t some rich person out there who doesn’t want to have the next generation all be Mr. and Mrs. X fellows. Then they get to make $10 or $20 grand more. It’s not that much money in the grand scheme of things for all of the kudos and accolades you would get and all of these fresh young faces saying thank you so much, Mr. or Mrs. Whoever.
Mike Froman: We have been very fortunate to have some of those donors participate.
Jordan Schneider: How do you split your time? What’s the weekly daily pie chart? You’re now a take artist on Substack as well. How do you think about where your time should be spent?
Mike Froman: I live in Washington, and I spend about three days a week on average in New York and two days a week at our office here. Every week’s a little different. I travel around the rest of the country as well, doing events for CFR members and others.
I split my time between my own research and writing — as you say, I have a weekly column that I put out on Fridays that then gets posted on Substack. It’s part of our newsletter as well. I spend a lot of time working with our senior leadership team on our programming here, making sure that we are presenting a nonpartisan slate of participants here on our stage for events on all the major issues. I spend a certain amount of my time on internal management. We’ve got a great management team here, so I’ve been able to defer to a lot of them in terms of managing people and systems and things here, budgets, etc. Of course, a certain amount of time on fundraising. I do a bit with the press, a bit with the media to be helpful and out there. That fills a week.
Jordan Schneider: If you took a pill and could sleep 10 fewer hours a week, where do you think you would spend it? Doesn’t have to be on the job.
Mike Froman: On the job, I would probably spend it digging further into our research and analysis and doing more in that area. That’s the direction I’m heading in. I’ve been here for a couple years. I wanted to spend the first couple years really getting my arms around the place as an institution. Now I’m working more closely with the fellows on this big project of taking a step back — our Future of American Strategy initiative — and looking at some of these big questions going forward.
Jordan Schneider: It’s a weird time, right? Doing the work that I do in Trump one or Biden felt like the residence was much more direct to the sorts of wavelengths that the most important decision makers in the country were on. Now we’re in a brave new world. There are lots of strains of thinking in American policymaking.
Going back to the 1940s and the origin story of CFR — man, isolationism is back. We got Nazis going on the most popular right-wing podcasts. Doing things in the normal, mainstream way, trying to optimize for the solutions that you, me, George H.W. Bush would all see as reasonable goals for American policymaking is not shared by a significant chunk of one of the two parties in America.
In this new paradigm we’re in, to what extent do the bounds of thinking, the ways of working in a mainstream foreign policy think tank, have to change? On the other hand, in which ways should things stay the same?
Mike Froman: First of all, I don’t view President Trump or his administration as isolationist. You can’t be isolationist and talk about taking over the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland. That’s expansionist. This president has spent more of his first 10 months on foreign policy — whether it’s getting involved in particular conflicts, traveling abroad, hosting foreign leaders — probably more than just about any other president in recent memory. He is deeply engaged in the world.
As I said, our mission is to inform U.S. engagement in the world. There are lots of different ways to engage. He is engaging with it in a different way than several of his predecessors, but he is deeply engaged. For a think tank that’s focused on that, it is to say — this is the way this president is engaged. What are the costs and benefits? What are the trade-offs involved? What are the alternatives? What could be done to ensure ultimately that the U.S. meets its national interests? That’s what our role has always been. That’s what our role is now.
Jordan Schneider: What do you think are the unique challenges of this job relative to others you’ve had in your career?
Mike Froman: That’s a great question. I worked in the public sector. I’ve worked in the private sector. This is the first time I’m running a nonprofit organization, a think tank. The challenge is to maintain its position as a nonpartisan, independent source of research and analysis in what is a very partisan environment. Every day we think, how do we make sure, whether it’s our membership or the people who participate in our meetings and are put on stage or the engagement we have with the administration, how do we make sure that we are fulfilling our obligation as a nonpartisan institution going forward? That is a new and different level of challenge now probably than in the past, just because of the broader nature of the political environment.
Jordan Schneider: Do you spend much time with AI? Have you been using it to research or write at all?
Mike Froman: Not really.
Jordan Schneider: Maybe this is my pitch to you, Mike. The tools are enabling young talent to learn much faster and be much more prolific than they ever were in the past. My critique of the model that I grew up with — you have senior fellows and then you have RAs who hang out for two or three years and then go on their merry way, and most of their job is directly supporting or just serving as a research assistant to someone senior — what the research tools which now exist allow folks who are really sharp and motivated to do is just get up these knowledge hills much more quickly.
Obviously there are things that ChatGPT can’t teach you. A lot of this think tank game is one of relationships, be that with folks in Washington or in the media or what have you, or the subtleties of how to shape an idea so that it will resonate with different audiences. On the more contentful learning stuff, you can run a lot further as a 23-year-old than you could even 10 years ago. I would encourage — challenge, maybe — you and the organization to imagine raising the bar for what the top tier of young talent can aspire to do.
Mike Froman: To that point, Jordan, we started about a year ago opening the door for our RAs to publish on CFR.org in conjunction with their fellows or on their own as well, recognizing, as you say, first of all, we have a terrific group of people with or without AI tools and quite expert in their own way for their stage in their career. We wanted to give them an opportunity to develop their portfolios as well.
Jordan Schneider: Cool. Two thumbs up for that.
It’s clear that demand exceeds supply for policy analysis roles. I see this when I put job descriptions out. I’m sure you guys see it as well. There are people willing to not make a lot of money to do this work because they think it’s really interesting and really important. It seems like we, as a country, are leaving some money on the table from an idea generation perspective. The fact that we don’t just have 10 times as many people trying to understand what makes the Chinese rare earths ecosystem tick… where are we on the production curve of idea generation for think tanks?
Mike Froman: It’s probably always been more applicants than roles for these kinds of jobs. It’s probably particularly acute right now just because changes in the government mean that a lot of people who expected to go into the government or into the intelligence community are probably not seeing the same pathways that they saw before. Same thing for a lot of NGOs or nonprofits, particularly in the development field. People who are planning on going into that area are probably seeing the jobs disappear.
On the positive side, virtually every company is figuring out that they need geopolitical advice. They need to understand the impact of the changing geopolitical environment on their business. Many of them are setting up offices to bring in people with foreign policy interests and ideas into their ecosystem. That’s another avenue that didn’t fully exist five or 10 years ago and now is a much more vibrant part of the market for ideas. It’s think tanks, obviously, being one piece of it. Universities also. But then the private sector is now another place where people can go and develop careers if they have an interest in this area. Can I ask you a question Jordan? Who among the CFR fellows is your favorite.
Jordan Schneider: Oh man, I don’t know if I can choose…
It’s interesting, right, this whole think tank model, because on the one hand, you are these independent atoms, kind of like professors who can do their own thing. But I imagine also as a president, you want to see synergies develop in-house, as opposed to if one’s sitting here and the other is at Brookings.
Given that you have all these stallions who are going to want to run in their different directions, how do you think about to what extent you’re going to want to get them playing together and rowing in the same direction versus going off and optimizing their time how they want?
Mike Froman: What I hear from you, Jordan, is that we have so much great talent that you can’t possibly choose who is the best one. I appreciate that endorsement of CFR.
To answer your question, because it is timely and it is one of the things that I brought to the Council as a bit of an innovation — we’re doing a lot more collaboration among the fellows. runs our China Strategy Initiative and he pulls in a wide range of fellows from CFR, but also from other think tanks and universities into his project to answer questions — What is China thinking? What is China doing? How do we compete and how do we engage? Those are the four pillars of his initiative. It involves dozens of folks across the Council, including our cadre of China fellows.
We’ve done the same, for example, on economics. Our Real Econ initiative, which is Reimagining American Economic Leadership, now has about a dozen or so fellows who touch trade and economics in one form or another and are working together on a whole series of projects. That’s a little bit new for the Council — these clusters of fellows coming together, working on collective projects, as well as working on their own books and their other projects. As you said, it adds that synergy. It’s not about having them all pull in the same direction intellectually because we welcome the diversity of their perspectives, but adding them together and seeing what we can produce on China, on economics, on technology, on energy and climate in ways that are additional is very important.
Jordan Schneider: One person you didn’t name is Tanner Greer, in the Rush Doshi extended universe. The other failure mode, which you have thankfully avoided, is this deification of PhDs as the only way to have relevant credentials or insight that would allow you to play under the bright lights of a CFR fellowship. Tanner has had a classic China arc of living in the PRC, speaking, teaching grade school, being a tutor, and just having a blog on the side. He’s one of the most well-read and thoughtful people. He also provides a little bit of ideological diversity to the building, which is important in these trying times. I’m really excited to see what he does with those extra tools and leverage that you guys can bring to him.
Mike Froman: Thank you for raising him. He’s a great new asset for us. Of course, he’s running our Open Source Observatory, which is this effort to do mass translations of Chinese public documents and make them available to scholars and policymakers so you can read in their own words what they are actually saying, which oftentimes proves to be actually quite relevant to the policy direction they’re taking their country.
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