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苹果要“完蛋”了吗?

11 April 2025 at 05:08

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苹果要“完蛋”了吗?

PATRICK McGEE
Lucia Buricelli for The New York Times
你的下一部iPhone会不会要2000美元?还是更贵?这个问题的答案,连同美国最富有的公司和我们岌岌可危的金融市场的未来,都取决于一个人,他肩负着非常棘手的任务。
将触屏手机变为现实的梦想家或许是乔布斯,但让苹果的营收和股价突破天际的,却是他那位低调的继任者蒂姆·库克的运营天赋和老练的政治手腕。库克在抵御唐纳德·特朗普第一个总统任期内的威胁时所取得的胜利并非没有代价:他一边百般讨好特朗普,一边对苹果与中国的关系几乎未做任何改变,把总统玩弄于股掌之间。
如今特朗普重返白宫,对中国加征的关税之高已严重威胁到苹果在智能手机市场的绝对优势。很显然,库克若想故技重施,难度会比上次更大。若他失败——大多数人都不看好他——将对苹果公司、股市乃至更为广泛的经济造成重创。
让我们先来了解一下其中的利害关系。自2011年以来,苹果基本上一直是全球市值最高的公司,在特朗普发出关税威胁之前,其市值约占标普500指数的8%。如果你的退休金投资于指数基金,那么苹果公司就是你最大的单笔投资。它是如此巨大,以至于像该公司在2019年初所做的那样,光是发布季度盈利预警,就足以让全球金融市场陷入不安。
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再来看一个事实:将生产转移到美国——这是特朗普极端关税政策所宣称的目标——对苹果公司来说几乎是不可能的。苹果约90%的全球生产都是在中国进行,而且也是苹果在过去25年里持续重金投入人力、设备和工艺创新的唯一国家。
Wedbush的分析师估算,美国本土组装iPhone的成本将是目前价格的三倍多,约3500美元。更糟的是,美国根本缺乏大规模制造苹果产品所需的制造技术、产业集群,甚至没有大规模生产苹果产品所需的人口密度。
许多苹果供应商极度依赖中国进城务工的低薪劳动力,据估计这类工人的数量在3亿到5亿成年人之间,即便取下限,这个数字也几乎相当于美国的全部人口,男女老少统统包括在内。在繁忙的假日季,这些工人对于苹果实现日产百万部iPhone(每部含约1000个零部件)至关重要。将全部产能移出中国,很可能要耗资数千亿美元。
因此,在2016年,当特朗普敦促他的支持者抵制苹果产品,并威胁要对中国征收巨额关税时,难怪库克这位低调的民主党人、LGBTQ权益和多元化倡议的坚定支持者,展开了魅力攻势。他特意给特朗普打电话,还经常拜访他。第二年,特朗普说,库克发誓要在美国建造“三座大工厂,漂亮的工厂”。
这种奉承奏效了,苹果公司获得了特朗普关税的广泛豁免。但苹果在美国没有建造任何工厂。它的首席执行官只是成功耗完了特朗普的总统任期。
从那以后,苹果与中国的关系愈发紧密。我的报道显示,苹果公司通过帮助中国企业模仿然后取代那些在过去十年里助力中国建立起科技制造业优势的跨国竞争对手,赢得了中国官员的好感。苹果公司的年报显示,从2012年到2023年,其顶级供应商名单中的中国供应商数量增加了两倍多,达到52家,挤掉了美国和台湾的竞争对手。
Nic Coury/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
库克向特朗普2025年的总统就职典礼捐款100万美元,并出席了典礼。几周后,苹果公司承诺在总统的第二个任期内“支出并投资”5000亿美元,以扩大“对美国制造业的支持”。特朗普吹嘘说,这项投资体现了他的“美国优先”议程。
仅凭这个承诺还不足以拯救苹果。特朗普的一些顾问肯定意识到,苹果的承诺可能是无稽之谈。几乎没有证据表明该公司将投入近5000亿美元;公告中只提到了四项新举措,其投资总额可能连这个数字的十分之一都不到。除非计算结果为了误导,故意包含了与美国制造业毫无关系的回购和分红,或者另有未公开的进一步计划,否则这一承诺就像库克在特朗普第一任期内所作的一样,只是空头支票。
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而这一次,特朗普的关税要严厉得多。关税于周三生效,这是自乔布斯1997年回归拯救濒临破产的苹果公司以来,苹果业务面临的最大威胁。罗森布拉特证券公司的分析师估计,这些关税可能使苹果公司的年利润减少400亿美元。特朗普不仅在上周表示将对中国征收54%的高额关税(包括之前加征的关税),而且还将至少其他90个国家包括在内,从而有效地切断了苹果公司通过越南(税率46%)或印度(税率27%)改变产品路线的努力。中国以自己的关税措施进行回应,没有表现出任何退缩的迹象。特朗普也没有退缩,正在推动进一步加征的计划。
苹果公司陷入了困境,而且没有明显的出路。即使能立即将苹果的生产迁出中国,库克也有可能激怒北京,并危及苹果公司在那里价值约700亿美元的业务。他唯一的选择是继续将更多苹果产品的最终组装工作转移到印度和越南等地,同时把大部分复杂的制造环节留在中国——这是一条越来越狭窄、越来越危险的道路。自去年12月底达到峰值以来,苹果公司的股价已经蒸发逾1万亿美元。
如果特朗普这次不能识破苹果的政治手段,那他可就太愚蠢了。话又说回来,他往往更看重表象而非原则。任何押注苹果未来的人都应该希望库克手里还有一张外交王牌。但这一次,他的胜算实在不大。

Patrick McGee) 是即将出版的《Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company》一书的作者。

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中国继续反制,对美关税税率提高至125%

By: 艾莎
11 April 2025 at 05:20

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中国继续反制,对美关税税率提高至125%

艾莎
3月,肯塔基州路易斯维尔Vendome Copper & Brass Works的一名工人。
3月,肯塔基州路易斯维尔Vendome Copper & Brass Works的一名工人。 Jon Cherry for The New York Times
中国周五对特朗普总统的关税作出回应,把对美国商品的关税税率从84%提高至125%,在两个超级大国的这场不断升级的贸易战中第三次采取报复性措施。
在中国国务院宣布这一消息之前,特朗普政府官员于周四澄清,目前中国所有出口至美国的产品面临最低145%的关税。
中国表示,新关税将于周六生效。
过去两周,全球最大的两个经济体一直进行着以牙还牙的对抗,事态发展迅速,贸易成本随之飙升。
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周五,中国最高领导人习近平公开谈论关税问题,这是自华盛顿和北京本月开始逐步提高关税以来,他首次就该问题公开讲话。
“打关税战没有赢家,”他说道。
来源:美国白宫、中国财政部
来源:美国白宫、中国财政部 By Agnes Chang and Pablo Robles
特朗普总统对从中国进口的商品征收的关税目前至少为145%。此外,他还将对钢铁和铝进口加征关税。
中国表示,征收“畸高关税”违反了国际经贸规则,“违背基本的经济规律和常识,”并称之为“单边霸凌胁迫做法”。

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Trump had five tariff goals - has he achieved any of them?

11 April 2025 at 12:01
EPA Image shows Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting on ThursdayEPA

Donald Trump announced a massive tariff plan last week that would have upended the global economic order as well as long-established trading relationships with America's allies.

But that plan - or at least a significant part of is - is on ice after the president suspended higher tariffs on most countries for 90 days while leaning into a trade war with China.

So with this partial reversal, is Trump any closer to realising his goals on trade? Here's a quick look at five of his key ambitions and where they now stand.

1) Better trade deals

What Trump said: For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike

Trump's original trade plan packed a big punch that landed around the world, with a flat 10% baseline tariff on everyone (including some uninhabited islands) and additional "reciprocal" tariffs on the 60 counties that he said were the worst offenders.

It sent allies and adversaries scrambling, as they stared down the prospect of a debilitating blow to their economies.

The White House has been quick to boast about all the world leaders who have reached out to the president to make deals and offer trade concessions – "more than 75", according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Although the administration hasn't released a list of all the countries that Trump said on Tuesday were "kissing my ass" and promising to do anything, the US has announced it is in negotiations with South Korea and Japan, among others.

The takeaway: America's trading partners have 90 days to strike some sort of agreement with Trump, and the clock is ticking. But the fact that talks are happening indicates that the president has a good chance of getting something for his efforts.

2) Boosting American industry

What Trump said: Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country…We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.

Trump has said for decades that tariffs are an effective way of rebuilding America's manufacturing base by shielding it from unfair foreign competition. While some factories may be able to increase production in current facilities, more substantive efforts take time. And for business leaders to pull the trigger on "reshoring" their production lines and investing in new US factories, they will want to know that the rules of the game are relatively stable.

The president's on-again, off-again tariff moves over the past week are inherently unstable, however. For the moment, it's difficult to predict where the final tariff levels will land and which industries will receive the greatest protections. It could be auto manufacturers and steel producers today, and high-tech electronics companies tomorrow.

The takeaway: When tariffs are applied and removed seemingly at the president's whim, it's much more likely that companies – both in the US and abroad – will hunker down and wait for the dust to settle before making any big commitments.

Watch: Why US markets skyrocketed after Trump tariffs pause

3) Facing off with China

What Trump said: I have great respect for President Xi of China, great respect for China, but they were taking tremendous advantage of us.

After Trump's tariff about-face on Wednesday, several White House officials – including Treasury Secretary Bessent - were quick to say that Trump's goal was to drop the hammer on the real villain, China.

"They are the biggest source of the US trade problems," Bessent told reporters, "and indeed they are the problem for the rest of the world.

If Trump wanted a battle of wills with China, testing each side's tolerance for economic and political pain, he got one – even if the president and his aides have hinted that they are looking for an exit ramp.

On Wednesday, Trump said that he blamed past US leaders, not China, for the current trade dispute. The prior day, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president would be "incredibly gracious" if China reaches out to make a deal.

The takeaway: Even if this showdown is one Trump wants, picking a fight with the second-largest economy in the world, with military power to match, comes at enormous risk. And along the way America may have alienated the allies it needs most in such a confrontation.

4) Raising revenue

What Trump said: Now it's our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it'll all happen very quickly.

During last year's presidential campaign, Trump regularly touted that his proposed tariffs would bring in vast sums in new revenue, which the US could then use to shrink its budget deficit, fund tax cuts and pay for new government programmes.

A study last year by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimated that a 10% universal tariff – which is what Trump has landed on for at least the next 90 days – would generate $2tn in new revenue over the next 10 years.

To put that in context, the tax cuts Congress recently included in its non-binding budget blueprint would cost approximately $5tn over the next 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The takeaway: Trump wanted more tariff revenue, and if he sticks with his baseline tariffs, plus the additional levies on certain imports and larger ones on China, he's going to get it – at least until Americans switch to more domestic production, when the tariff money gusher could turn to a trickle.

5) Lower prices for US consumers

What Trump said: Ultimately, more production at home will mean stronger competition and lower prices for consumers. This will be indeed the golden age of America.

Analysts and experts have offered a grab bag other explanations about why Trump made such an aggressive move on trade last week. Was he trying to drive down interest rates, or devalue the US dollar or bring the world to the table for a new, global agreement on trade? The president himself hasn't spoken much about those kinds of elaborate schemes.

One thing he has talked about relentlessly, however, is his desire to lower costs for American consumers - and he has promised that his trade policy will help address this. While energy prices dipped in the week since Trump announced his tariff plan, that may have been a result of fears that the trade wars could trigger a global recession.

The consensus among economists is that new tariffs will drive up consumer prices, as tariffs are tacked on to the price of imports and, eventually, when there is less competition for US-made products. Last year, the Tax Foundation estimated that a 10% universal tariff would increase costs for American households by an average of $1,253 in its first year. Economists also warn that lower-income Americans will be hardest hit.

The takeaway: An increase in prices is an arrow moving in the wrong direction – and it represents an enormous potential liability for both Trump's political standing and his party's future electoral prospects.

New pill that slows incurable breast cancer approved for NHS

11 April 2025 at 14:48
Getty Images A doctor wearing green scrubs and a face mask and hair net, looks at scansGetty Images

A new type of drug for one of the most common kinds of advanced breast cancer is now available on the NHS in England.

Some 3,000 women a year could benefit from capivasertib after a clinical trial showed it can slow progression of the disease, and shrink tumours in a quarter of people.

The drug has been given the green light for NHS funding by England's drug assessment body.

It's one of a range of treatment options available to people whose cancer has spread and is no longer curable, but a cancer charity said breast cancer drugs should be approved more quickly.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in the UK, with one in seven women affected in their lifetimes and 75% surviving for 10 years or more after diagnosis.

If the cancer returns and spreads to other parts of the body, treatments aim to control it, reduce the symptoms and improve quality of life.

Possible treatments include chemotherapy, radiotherapy and drugs that help to stop the cancer growing - either by blocking hormones, boosting the body's immune system or targeting what makes cancer cells grow.

This new drug capivasertib is a targeted therapy. It works in a new way, blocking the activity of a protein molecule called AKT which drives cancer growth.

Scientists started working on the drug's development 20 years ago and say it's the most effective cancer drug they've seen for advanced cancer.

"It presents a very effective option that can work for a long time - many months, and in some people it can be years," said Prof Nick Turner, lead researcher and professor of medical oncology at the Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden.

In trials, in 708 women, when combined with hormone therapy, the drug doubled the time the cancer took to grow, from 3.6 months to 7.3 months. It also shrank tumours in 23% of patients.

"It can substantially delay chemotherapy which many women fear because of the side-effects," Prof Turner added.

"Advanced breast cancer is highly treatable and we want kinder, better treatments."

'Four years of extra time'

Linda Kelly sits in an armchair in her home, wearing a purple blouse, with framed photos behind her on a table
Linda says the drug has given her extra years of life

Linda Kelly, 67, is a keen gardener who keeps active by cycling 60 miles a week. She also does pilates.

Breast cancer has spread to her bones and chest wall.

But she's had "fantastic" results from the new drug capivasertib.

"It does let you have a normal kind of life and you forget you have cancer," she said.

"You feel the drug is working and you can be a lot calmer - it's given me nearly four years of extra time."

Linda and her husband are now planning to travel. She says the drug has given her hope.

"It does make you think about your life, and what you want to do with your life in the future - but at least you feel well enough to make those plans and confident enough as well to fulfil some of those plans."

The drug is suitable for those with certain gene mutations that affect up to half of people with hormone receptor positive secondary breast cancer - the most common type, which grows in the presence of oestrogen.

Professor Peter Johnson, clinical director for cancer at NHS England, said it offered "an additional option" for some whose cancer has progressed despite previous hormone therapy - but it wouldn't be suitable for everyone.

Claire Rowney, chief executive at charity Breast Cancer Now, said she was "delighted" that the drug would offer some people "the hope of more precious time to do what matters most to them".

But she said patients had "faced unnecessary delays in accessing it" after the drug was initially rejected by NICE, and breast cancer drugs should be approved more quickly for those who need them.

"NHS England must now put in place prompt genetic testing to ensure those eligible receive capivasertib without further delay," she said, adding that Scotland should also consider funding the treatment quickly so that patients across the UK would have access.

Mo Salah signs new Liverpool deal

11 April 2025 at 15:02

Salah signs new two-year deal with Liverpool

Liverpool forward Mohamed SalahImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Salah joined Liverpool from Roma in 2017

Egypt forward Mohamed Salah has signed a new two-year contract with Liverpool.

His previous deal was scheduled to run out in the summer and there had been doubts he would stay with the Reds following comments from the 32-year-old during the season as well as speculation linking him with a move to Saudi Arabia.

However, he will now have the chance to add to his 243 goals and 109 assists for Liverpool in 393 appearances.

"Of course I'm very excited - we have a great team now," said Salah.

"Before we also had a great team. But I signed because I think we have a chance to win other trophies and enjoy my football.

"I have played eight years here, hopefully it's going to be 10. I'm enjoying my life here, enjoying my football. I have had the best years of my career here."

Salah has scored 32 goals in all competitions this season, including 27 in the Premier League as the Reds chase a 20th top-flight title. Liverpool are 11 points clear of second-placed Arsenal with seven games remaining.

Salah, who joined Liverpool from Roma in 2017, has won the Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup and Fifa Club World Cup with the Reds.

He was one of three key Liverpool players who will be out of contract this summer, along with right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold and centre-back Virgil van Dijk.

Netherlands defender Van Dijk has said there has been progress on talks over a new deal but Alexander-Arnold has been heavily linked with a move to Real Madrid.

Long-running Salah saga finally ends

Amid uncertainty about his future, Salah has already had his second-best season in terms of league goals at Liverpool in 2024-25. With seven games left, he could feasibly reach the 32 he scored in his first campaign.

In September, he said in a Sky Sports interview it was his "last season" at Anfield because nobody at the club had talked to him about a new contract.

Those comments were made after he had scored in a 3-0 win at Manchester United - a match he had treated like it was his last at Old Trafford.

Two months later, following a win at Southampton, Salah stated he was "disappointed" at not having been offered a new deal by Liverpool and that he was "probably more out than in".

At the time, the Reds claimed positive talks had been taking place with the player's representative.

However, in January Salah again spoke publicly about his contract situation when he said the two parties were "far away from any progress".

The forward has consistently been linked with a move to Saudi Arabia, with Liverpool rejecting a £150m offer from Al-Ittihad for Salah in 2023.

Saudi Arabia's sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal had said the forward would be "a big prize" and they "would love to have him".

However, Liverpool manager Arne Slot said in January he wanted the player to stay and Salah is "wise enough to make the right decision" over his future.

In announcing Salah's new deal, Liverpool posted a picture of the player - who is nicknamed the 'Egyptian King' - sat on a throne on the Anfield pitch with the caption 'more in than out'.

Analysis - The importance of contracts being two years

BBC Sport senior football reporter Sami Mokbel

There is a growing expectation at Liverpool that captain Virgil van Dijk will join forward Mohamed Salah in signing a new contract.

Following months of discussions it is understood Van Dijk is extremely close to signing what would be a new two-year contract.

There is an importance to both contracts being two years in length.

The first, and most obvious, benefit to Liverpool is they get to keep two of their most important players.

But it also means they can avoid a repeat of the unsettling narrative that has clouded Arne Slot's first season as manager for at least another year.

Liverpool, barring what would be a remarkable capitulation, are set to win their 20th league title - yet the achievement has come against the backdrop of Van Dijk, Salah and defender Trent Alexander-Arnold approaching the end of their contracts.

The club's hopes of retaining Alexander-Arnold have waned in recent weeks, with the right-back in talks with Real Madrid over a free transfer in the summer.

工伤维权、指控骗婚均“被精神病” 安徽强送精神病院案引关注

继李宜雪事件后,最近发生2起安徽的无病者被警察强送精神病院事件,成为网络话题。虽然官方均表示会调查,但无病者被强送精神病院接连发生,执法部门能决定送人到精神病院是否存在滥权,公权力和医院之间的利益和关係也引发关注。

近日引发网民关注的2起“被精神病”案例都发生在安徽。一名胡姓女子指控网恋男友重婚和诈骗,警方已在2月时立案,因胡女士不接受和解要求,3月从安徽开车到了北京郊区检查站时,被7至8人强行拉走,从北京带回芜湖市一所精神医院,被强迫入院6天和被餵药。胡女士出院后公开此事和没有精神病的鑑定。当地媒体引述权威部门表示,基于安全考虑才把胡女士送院。

安徽媒体《大象新闻》也曝光,因工伤身障的男子张坡,到淮河能源控股集团门口举板维权争取补助时,被警察带走送到精神病院。他被关22天后再因寻衅滋事被拘留。张坡在抖音拍视频回应,表示政府部门已介入调查,希望能真相大白。又说,虽然自己不是首次住院,但这次是被公权力强迫住院。

张坡说:“这次在我不同意和我家人也不同意的情况下,由公权力自己掏钱硬给我塞进去,这就是区别。主动与不主动,谁签字及谁掏钱是关键。除了他们(公权力)那些人不懂,老百姓都懂这里面的一些区别和差异。”

网民博主均质疑精神病已成为协助公权力解决纠纷的工具

胡女士和张坡先后成为网络讨论热话,有博主质疑,警察为何有权能随意把人送进精神病院。

博主“张正”说:“精神病院真是个好地方呀,啥事都能往里放,啥人都能往里装。解决不了问题,咱就解决提出问题的人。为什么治病的医院现在就成为限制公民自由的工具啊?一方随意送,一方随意收,铁门一关,强制治疗,叫天天不应,叫地地不灵。老百姓有没有精神病到底是谁说了算的?”

有博主表示,强送精神病院的做法如果不监管,人人都有可能“被精神病”。

博主“鹏哥”说:“一个正常人就这么被送进精神病院,到底有多离谱啊!这背后的流程他是怎么把控的?有没有一个严格的鉴定程序?还是说某些权利可以如此轻易的决定一个人的精神状态?如果这样的事情频频发生,那么以后我们每个人是不是都要在一种恐惧之中了?只要和某些人的意见不合,就可能被强制送进本是救助精神病人的地方。”

冰山一角 无辜者被送院涉及利益输送

中国独立评论人季风对本台表示,无病者被强制送精神病院的情况一直存在,现在曝光的个案只是冰山一角,又说,这次事件是公开了公权力和精神病院之间,存在利益输送等违法行为。

季风说:“说这个社会太普遍、太多了,不需要什么关系网,就是生意和利益关系。那个男(胡女士前男友)敢把女的送进去,你一定要跟警察送钱的。这个警察可以说那个女的有抑郁症,精神病院也有财政拨款,如果那种送进去,还要收家属的钱。他们(警察和医院)现在就是明目张胆在做这种事,有人敢接就有人敢做。”

分析:当局容许滥送精神病院事件曝光是要恐吓社会

旅美人权律师吴绍平对本台表示,胡女士的个案已被立案,也被警察跨省强行送到精神病院,当中一定涉及徇私枉法和滥权,也突显法律存在的漏洞。

吴绍平说:“从董瑶琼案到李宜雪案,公权力部门往往会利用自己的权力去打压民众。将一个正常的公民强制送到精神病院,没有人因此承担责任和被追责。一个人是不是应当被强制送精神病院,判断的权力又在有权力强制把人送到精神病院的单位和公安的身上,公权力部门跟这些精神病医院是利益共同体,出现这种滥用,(法律)当然是有巨大的缺陷和漏洞。”

吴绍平表示,强送精神病院的事件在中国一直存在,近期接连有个案被曝光,刚好是中国处于经济不好和社会不稳定的时期,怀疑是权力部门故意向社会发放的警告。

吴绍平说:“这种事件的公布对老百姓来讲,会产生2种效果:一种是愤怒,另外一种是会让整个社会进入一种恐惧当中。因为他(公权力)会怎么把这种事件不断的曝光和酝酿,他就让整个社会知道。你(民众)看呀,你们要是在经济不好时要是出来,要是敢跟公权力叫板也好,或者是维权也好,或者上街闹事也好。你看我们(公权力)是有权力可以直接把你们送到精神病院去,某种程度是有恐吓社会的效果。”

吴绍平表示,中国有法律保障工伤赔偿的个案,如果政府有所作为,有要求企业履行应有责任,便不会有人需要维权,也不用公权力介入维稳和打压,减少社会的怨气和怒火。

责编:陈美华 许书婷

© 张坡的抖音截图

张坡拍抖音视频讲述被强送精神病院经历,强调是被公权力强迫入院。

Stocks waver on latest escalation in U.S.-China trade war.

11 April 2025 at 16:57
Beijing retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. goods, a tit-for-tat move that intensified investors’ anxiety and rattled already shaky markets.

© Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday.

Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Is in Russia, the Kremlin Says

11 April 2025 at 17:05
The Kremlin spokesman would not say whether the Trump aide, Steve Witkoff, would meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

© Maansi Srivastava for The New York Times

Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s senior aide on Russia negotiations, in Washington last month.

Democrats see an opening on the economy after Trump's trade war wreaks havoc on global markets

Democrats are targeting Donald Trump's weakened standing on the economy — even after the president paused his far-reaching reciprocal tariff policy that reverberated across global markets.

In interviews with more than a dozen Democratic lawmakers, congressional staffers and media strategists, many in the party see a prime opportunity to attack Trump on a key campaign promise they argue he’s failing to deliver — a message likely to be featured prominently in political ads if the economy continues to falter. Some candidates are already hitting tariffs in campaign launch ads, while the party is planning to capitalize on anger over the economy, among other issues, in upcoming town halls.

It's an opportunity for Democrats on the economy, a major point of strength for Trump in his presidential campaign last year, even as they conceded the economic crisis had eased somewhat after the president paused some — but not all — tariffs on most countries. On Thursday afternoon, Trump clarified that the combined tariffs on Chinese goods is now at 145 percent. Most other nations will be subject to the 10 percent baseline tariff the administration levied last week. The markets reacted accordingly, with stocks plummeting at the end of the day.

Now, Democrats are banking on rising panic in worldwide markets and fears of a recession to knock Republicans down.

“We heard for five freaking months going into the last election, people beating up Biden and Harris about inflation, and the price of fucking eggs,” said longtime Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “So why the hell would we make [ads] about tariffs, as opposed to making it about the economy?”

He said Trump is presenting one of the most favorable gateways to Democrats in recent history, imploring Democrats not to squander the week of earned media about a near-global market implosion.

“There is an opportunity here, of historical proportions, given the advantage on the economy writ large that Republicans have had for decades,” he added. “You see Trump underwater on handling the economy and fighting inflation and bringing down costs – that is a major opening and a historic way for Democrats to take away what has been a major positive for Republicans.”

And recent polling backs up that claim that voters are waning on Trump’s economic stewardship. An Economist/YouGov poll of about 1,700 American adults released Wednesday showed Trump’s overall approval rating drop five percentage points from last week, combined with a four percentage-point drop in his handling of the economy. A poll from the Democratic group Navigator Research released Tuesday also showed 55 percent of 1,000 registered voters disapproving of Trump’s handling of the economy, an eight percentage-point swing since the group’s last poll in March. Another recent poll from the liberal group Data For Progress also showed a majority disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Not every poll showed dramatic changes. In a poll of 1,400 registered voters released Wednesday that was conducted April 3-7 from Quinnipiac, Trump’s handling of the economy and his overall approval rating remained steady or dropped only slightly.

Democrats and their affiliated groups are already blaming Trump for his scattershot tariff rollout as a way to pummel vulnerable Republicans in elections later this year and heading into the midterms.

Hours before Trump announced the tariff pause, the Democratic-aligned super PAC American Bridge released audio of Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, praising Trump’s tariff plan. Democrat Mike Sacks announced his candidacy Wednesday in a nearly two and a half minute ad. It featured an image of the word “tariff” nine times in bold red font along with a crimson-color graphic of a stock market plunging that was superimposed over the face of his opponent, incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), widely considered one of the most vulnerable House Republicans next cycle.

The Democratic-aligned group Families Over Billionaires, a nonprofit, is putting six figures into an ad running on social media and streaming platforms bashing the Trump administration over tax plans, and Democrats are planning a new round of town halls in GOP-held House districts over the upcoming recess.

Democrats argue the upheaval Trump injected into the economy undercuts the central premise that he campaigned on: that as a businessperson would be best positioned to grow the economy.

“The one thing that American voters want is security and safety. What they don’t want is chaos and uncertainty,” said Alex Jacquez, a former economic adviser to former president Biden who is now chief of policy for Groundwork Collaborative. “I think why you've seen such rapid deterioration on his approvals on the economy and on cost of living, tariffs and trade, is because not a single action that he has taken has been in service of addressing people's number one concern, which is cost of living.”

And that is precisely what has Democratic admakers salivating.

“Keep it simple and keep it tangible and keep it relatable to everyone's lives here,” said veteran media strategist Julian Mulvey, who has cut ads for Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris. He urged Democrats and affiliated groups to not overcomplicate their messaging by talking about esoteric economic concepts like supply chains and capital markets.

Instead, he referenced the “you break it, you own it” doctrine of politics.

“Trump is sort of charging headlong into breaking the economy and, and he's going to find out when he does,” he said. “Or in the modern vernacular: fuck around and find out.”

The White House, meanwhile, criticized the Democrats’ planned strategy.

“President Trump is the first president in modern American history to take decisive action to finally corner China and restore American Greatness,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. “If Democrats see an opportunity in President Trump and Republicans standing up for everyday Americans and restoring American Greatness, they’re headed for a worse election night than November 5, 2024.”

Several Democratic media strategists acknowledged it’s too early to say what the economy will look like when prime time campaign season hits. But that hasn’t stopped progressive strategists like Chuck Rocha from storyboarding what the anti-Trump attack ads will look like in the coming months.

“The best way to deliver the ad is from one of his voters, a white guy in his 50s who works in a steel mill, works at whatever the place down the street is that says: ‘Look, I don't really care about either party. I voted for Donald Trump because I thought he would change a rigged system,” Rocha said of a hypothetical ad that features someone speaking directly to camera. “But he's even rigging it more, and he's rigging it for himself.”

And that's on top of the party's already established playbook around Elon Musk's sledgehammer to government. Some Democratic ad-makers said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutinck's comments about "fraudsters" getting Social Security checks was bound to backfire.

It’s something that’s caught the attention of lawmakers too, including Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), who won reelection in a key swing state that Trump flipped last year. The representative is one of 26 Democrats that the Republican campaign arm is targeting in the midterms.

“Market manipulation … that’s what happened,” Horsford said on Wednesday. “On the same day that they're screwing America.” Horsford was referring to Trump’s social media post this week where the president proclaimed: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY."

© Pool via AP

The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics

11 April 2025 at 17:00
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
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