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Today — 6 July 2025Main stream

US deports eight men to South Sudan after legal battle

6 July 2025 at 18:14
US Department of Homeland Security In the background two bald men in blue overalls with hands and feet shackled sit on the plane, with one Asian man to one of their left and other faces not visible but more people sat with shackles in grey overalls. Uniformed men are stood around themUS Department of Homeland Security
The deported men shackled by both hands and feet, guarded by US service members, aboard the plane

The US has deported eight people to South Sudan following a legal battle that saw them diverted to Djibouti for several weeks.

The men - convicted of crimes including murder, sexual assault and robbery - had either completed or were near the end of their prison sentences.

Only one of the eight is from South Sudan. The rest are nationals of Myanmar, Cuba, Vietnam, Laos and Mexico. US officials said most of their home countries had refused to accept them.

The Trump administration is working to expand its deportations to third countries.

It has deported people to El Salvador and Costa Rica. Rwanda has confirmed discussions and Benin, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini and Moldova have been named in media reports as potential recipient countries.

A photo provided by the department of homeland security to CBS News, the BBC's US partner, showed the men on the plane, their hands and feet shackled.

Officials did not say whether the South Sudanese government had detained them or what their fate would be. The country remains unstable and is on the brink of civil war, with the US State Department warning against travel because of "crime, kidnapping and armed conflict".

The eight had initially been flown out of the US in May, but their plane was diverted to Djibouti after US district judge Brian Murphy in Massachusetts blocked the deportation. He had ruled that migrants being deported to third countries must be given notice and a chance to speak with an asylum officer.

But last week, the Supreme Court sided with the Trump administration and overturned Judge Murphy's ruling. On Thursday, the Supreme Court confirmed that the judge could no longer require due process hearings, allowing the deportations to proceed.

Lawyers then asked another judge to intervene but he ultimately ruled that only Judge Murphy had jurisdiction. Judge Murphy then said he had no authority to stop the removals due to the Supreme Court's "binding" decision.

Tricia McLaughlin from the department of homeland security called the South Sudan deportation a victory over "activist judges".

Earlier this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revoked all visas for South Sudanese passport holders, citing the country's past refusal to accept deported nationals.

兩岸喜劇演員:如何用笑話開啟敏感對話?

6 July 2025 at 19:47

來自上海的Jamie,3年前意外在台灣開啟了喜劇之路,她最受歡迎的笑話,是講在台灣遭遇到的歧視與刻板印象。而她的好朋友、來自台灣的喜劇演員Vickie,則是在上海踏入這一行,在中國經歷內容審查的她,如今移居紐約、試圖在新的舞台,替台灣「做一點外交」。帶著各自的身份到異地冒險,她們如何透過「諷刺的藝術」觸碰敏感議題? 彼此又有哪些同與不同的人生經歷?

中国民航启用台海新航线 陆委会称单方面改变现状

6 July 2025 at 19:47
德正
2025-07-06T11:25:50.249Z
福州、厦门航班不再绕行,直接向东飞往贴近台海中线的M503航线

(德国之声中文网)中国民航局周日(7月6日)宣布即日起启用M503航线W121衔接航线。W121航线位于台湾海峡“中线”以西,是继W122与W123后的第三条M503航线延伸线。

中国国台办发言人陈斌华以答记者问形式发布书面新闻稿称,设立和启用这一航线是中国大陆民航空域管理的一项常规工作,是为缓解有关地区航班增长压力。国台办称,这样改变目的是确保飞行安全,减少航班延误,“对两岸民众都有利”。

去年1月13日台湾总统选举结束后,中国民航局1月底就公告,自2月1日起取消位于台湾海峡中线西侧的M503航线自北向南运行的飞行偏置措施,不再西移;接着在4月19日宣布启用向西连接福建福州、厦门的W122、W123衔接航线,由西向东运行。

这意味着福州、厦门航班将不再绕至北方航路,直接由西向东飞往贴近台海中线的M503航线。但由于M503航线距离台海中线仅4.2海里(约7.8公里),这也将大幅压缩台湾空防预警时间。

“抹掉”台海中线?

中国民航周日宣布启用新航线后,台湾陆委会随即发表声明,强调中国此次“以单方面行动改变现状”,是破坏现状的行为,并可能对两岸及区域安全带来严重影响。

台湾国防安全研究院国防战略与资源研究所长苏紫云对《联合报》分析称,大陆片面启用W121支线航道,不仅将压缩台湾的空防纵深及预警时间,更试图彻底抺去台海中线,而且对飞安的影响很严重。

中国并不承认台湾海峡中线为两岸空域分界,解放军军机近期仍多次越线进入台湾一侧空域。W121航线启用时机敏感,正逢台湾即将举行年度“汉光演习”之际。该演习将于7月9日登场,为期10 天,是台湾一年一度最重要的防卫操演。

《华尔街日报》6日指出,中国透过航线调整与军机频繁跨越台海中线,正逐步改变台海空域现状,这是北京为未来可能军事行动铺路的战略布局。报导认为,这种“灰色地带”策略不仅削弱台湾空防预警时间,也旨在以非军事手段持续施压,增加台湾防卫难度。

 

DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。



Welfare U-turn makes spending decisions harder, minister tells BBC

6 July 2025 at 18:39
BBC Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson appearing on the BBC 1 current affairs programme, Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg.BBC

Spending decisions have been made "harder" by the government's U-turn on welfare changes, the education secretary has said, as she did not commit to scrapping the two-child benefit cap.

Bridget Phillipson told BBC One's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme that ministers were "looking at every lever" to lift children out of poverty.

But she said removing the cap would "come at a cost" and insisted the government was supporting families with the cost of living in other ways.

It comes after a rebellion of Labour MPs forced the government to significantly water down a package of welfare reforms that would have saved £5bn a year by 2030.

The climbdown means the savings will now be delayed or lost entirely, which puts pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the autumn Budget.

Before its retreat on benefits, the Labour government was considering lifting the two-child benefit cap, a policy that restricts means-tested benefits to a maximum of two children per family for those born after April 2017.

When asked if the chances of getting rid of the cap had diminished, Phillipson said: "The decisions that have been taken in the last week do make decisions, future decisions harder.

"But all of that said, we will look at this collectively in terms of all of the ways that we can lift children out of poverty."

How MI5 piled falsehood on falsehood in the case of neo-Nazi spy who abused women

6 July 2025 at 13:00
PA Media/BBC Composite graphic with in the foreground a photo of MI5 director general Sir Ken McCallum, a white man with dark, swept-back hair and round dark-rimmed glasses, wearing a dark suit and tie. Behind him is an image of the Royal Courts of Justice, rendered in blue on a yellow background and the MI5 logo in bluePA Media/BBC

When the BBC revealed that MI5 had lied to three courts, the Security Service apologised for giving false evidence - vowing to investigate and explain how such a serious failure had occurred.

But on Wednesday, the High Court ruled that these inquiries were "deficient", ordering a new "robust" investigation. A panel of judges said they would consider the issue of contempt of court proceedings against individuals once that was complete.

Now we can detail how, over the past few months leading up to the judgment, MI5 continued to provide misleading evidence and tried to keep damning material secret.

The material gives an unprecedented insight into the internal chaos at MI5 as it responded to what has become a major crisis and test of its credibility.

At the heart of the case is the violent abuse of a woman by a state agent under MI5's control. After the BBC began investigating, MI5 attempted to cover its tracks - scattering a trail of false and misleading evidence.

The case started very simply: I was investigating a neo-Nazi, who I came to understand was also an abusive misogynist and MI5 agent.

After I contacted this man - known publicly as X - in 2020 to challenge him on his extremism, a senior MI5 officer called me up and tried to stop me running a story.

The officer said X had been working for MI5 and informing on extremists, and so it was wrong for me to say he was an extremist himself.

It was this disclosure, repeated in a series of phone calls, which the Security Service would later lie about to three courts as it attempted to keep X's role and identity shrouded in secrecy.

During the phone calls with me, MI5 denied information I had about X's violence, but I decided to spend more time investigating. What I learned was that X was a violent misogynist abuser with paedophilic tendencies who had used his MI5 role as a tool of coercion.

He had attacked his girlfriend - known publicly as "Beth" - with a machete, and abused an earlier partner, whose child he had threatened to kill. He even had cannibal fantasies about eating children.

Beth, pictured in a blurred silhouette against a high window, looking out onto tall buildings stretching into the distance on an overcast day
Beth, who was terrorised and coerced by X, has called for a public apology from MI5

When I challenged both X and MI5 with our evidence, the government took me and the BBC to court in early 2022. They failed to stop the story but did win legal anonymity for X.

Arguing for secrecy in a succession of court proceedings, the Security Service told judges it had stuck to its core policy of neither confirming nor denying (NCND) informants' identities, including during conversations with me. Crucially, this stance allowed it to keep evidence secret from "Beth", who had taken MI5 to court.

The service aggressively maintained its position until I produced evidence proving it was untrue - including a recording of one of the calls with a senior MI5 officer.

Finally accepting it had provided false evidence, MI5's director general Sir Ken McCallum said: "We take our duty to provide truthful, accurate and complete information very seriously, and have offered an unreserved apology to the court."

Two investigations were commissioned: an internal MI5 disciplinary inquiry, and an external review by Sir Jonathan Jones KC, who was once the government's chief lawyer. This latter review was personally commissioned by the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and MI5's director general.

Both of these concluded that the original false evidence was not due to dishonesty by MI5 or any of its officers. They effectively put it down to mistakes, both personal and systemic.

But these two inquiries quickly began to fall apart.

Not fair or accurate

The government initially refused to provide both reports in full to the court.

Like many cases involving MI5, this one was held partly in secret to allow the government to use evidence which it says is too sensitive to be discussed in open hearings.

Access to the secret, closed part of the case was only available to the government, the judge and security-cleared barristers known as special advocates who were representing the BBC - but who were not allowed to communicate directly with us.

The government said it would not be providing any closed evidence about the two inquiries to the judge or the special advocates.

Instead, it provided an "open" version of Sir Jonathan's external review, with apparently sensitive material edited out, and it purported to provide a full account of the internal inquiry in a witness statement by MI5's director general of strategy - known as Witness B.

Sir Jonathan wrote that he was "satisfied" that the open version was a "fair and accurate" account of his full review. Witness B, third-in-command at the Security Service, said in his statement: "I am satisfied that there is nothing in the closed material that has been excluded from the open report which prevents MI5 from providing the court with a frank and accurate account."

Getty Images An exterior view of the Royal Courts of Justice where the High Court sits, with the neo-Gothic building featuring many spires, turrets, arched windows and a central rose window pictured in sunshine against blue skies.Getty Images
The High Court ruled that the explanations for MI5's false evidence were "deficient"

During hearings, the government argued against disclosing secret material to the court. It eventually agreed to hand over the secret version of Sir Jonathan's review, and then was ordered to disclose the internal investigation report described by Witness B, along with policy documents and notes of interviews with MI5 officers.

When the disclosure came, it was clear why MI5 was so keen to keep it secret: the summaries, including the one from MI5's third-in-command, were not fair or accurate. Key information had been withheld, which undermined their conclusions.

In short, the court was still being misled.

At the same time, in response to the inquiries, I was submitting new evidence which proved that some of the claims made by the two reviews were false.

Neither the internal investigation nor Sir Jonathan Jones contacted me, despite the fact I was the only other person who really knew what had been said in all the phone calls at the centre of the case.

'The fallibility of memory'

The two official reviews concluded that the senior officer who called me - Officer 2 - failed to recall telling me that X was an agent.

"There is nothing surprising in this narrative, which is ultimately about the fallibility of memory in the absence of a written record," as the Security Service put it in legal submissions.

The Jones review said that, because no formal record was made of the calls, by the time MI5 was preparing evidence the "only first-hand evidence available was Officer 2's personal recollection".

Sir Jonathan said the officer's recollection was "uncertain", although it had hardened over time into a position that he had not departed from NCND.

But material that MI5 and the government sought to keep secret shows that Officer 2 gave a detailed recollection of the conversation with me - until I exposed it as false.

His recollection was contained in a note of an internal MI5 meeting, arranged to discuss what to tell the special advocates and the court about the conversations with me. In it, the officer insisted he did not depart from NCND and gave a melodramatic account of my "long pauses" as I said I needed the story, before I eventually became cooperative and said I had "seen the light".

This was all untrue. He also falsely claimed I had revealed that I had spoken to X's former girlfriend, when I had done no such thing.

Graphic showing a note of an internal MI5 meeting, titled "MI5 office gave detailed false account of call with BBC". The graphic shows a reproduction of an extract of notes about Officer 2's recollection of the call with the BBC's Daniel De Simone, which says things such as "We did focus mostly on this individual", referring to X and "I kept insisting for ns reasons [national security reasons] it would be extremely helpful to keep out. Couldn't go into detail as to why." One line is highlighted, showing the detail in his false recollection: "I recall the long pauses of him saying need the story. Me saying it would be really really unhelpful."

The note also showed that Officer 2 had told colleagues that he persuaded me to drop the story by implying that agent X was being investigated by MI5 as an extremist. This was the exact opposite of what he had in fact told me, which was that X was an MI5 agent rather than a real extremist.

Sir Jonathan was aware of the full version of this elaborate false account, but it was absent from the unclassified version given to the court and the BBC.

The MI5 internal review also claimed that Officer 2 had a lapse of memory.

It said that Officer 2 had told another officer - a key figure involved in preparing the Security Service's false evidence for the court, known as Officer 3 - that he could not remember whether he had departed from NCND.

In his statement to court, Witness B - MI5's director general of strategy - said Officer 2 had said "they could not recall the details" of the conversations with me but "did not think they had departed from NCND" and believed "they would have remembered if they had done so".

But an internal note by Officer 3, written after his discussion with Officer 2, contained a very different account.

It stated unequivocally that "we did not breach NCND" and that the contact with me "was prefaced with confirmation that this conversation was not on the record".

It also stated that, "after being initially fairly bullish, De Simone said that he acknowledged the strength of the argument, and agreed to remove those references".

All three claims were false, including about the conversations being off the record, something now accepted by MI5.

The evidence showed specific false claims being presented as memories - not the absence of memory the two inquiries said they found.

The written records MI5 said did not exist

The question of memory was so important because the court was told that written records were not available.

Witness B - MI5's third-in-command - said the internal investigation established that Officer 2 had "updated colleagues within MI5" about the conversations with me, but that "there was no evidence identified of any written record being made, by Officer 2 or anyone else".

Graphic showing an extract of a witness statement by MI5's director general of strategy, titled "MI5 falsely claimed 'no written record' of conversation with BBC". The statement says Office 2 updated colleagues about his discussions with the BBC's Daniel De Simone, but that "there was no evidence identified of any written record being made" about whether he had departed from the NCND policy. A line is highlighted that says when the issue was examined in 2022, "there was no written record held by MI5 as to what had been said during the Officer 2 Conversations."

"The fact of the matter was that Officer 2 was reliant on personal recollection alone which inevitably carries a degree of inherent uncertainty," Witness B said in his statement to court.

Sir Jonathan gave the same impression in his review.

But the secret material MI5 was forced to hand over proved this was false. There were several written records consistent with what had really happened - that MI5 had chosen to depart from NCND and that several people were aware of it.

Graphic of MI5 decision log showing that, just after the authorisation took place, a formal record was created saying the plan was to call the BBC and "reveal the MI5 link to X". The log then noted: "This was discussed with Officer 2 who subsequently approached the BBC to begin this conversation." We have highlighted a passage which reads: 'Although we would never want to reveal the identity of a CHIS to the BBC, it was agreed that in this case there was no alternative.

There was a decision log.

There were notes of conversations with Agent X himself.

There were emails.

The decision log showed that, just after the authorisation took place, a formal record was created saying the plan was to call the BBC and "reveal the MI5 link to X". The log then noted: "This was discussed with Officer 2 who subsequently approached the BBC to begin this conversation."

In an internal email, after I had said I would not include X in an initial story, one of X's handling team reported this development to other MI5 officers and accurately described the approach to me, namely that Officer 2 had claimed my proposed story was "incorrect" and the rationale for this was that most of the material was as a "direct result of his tasking" as an MI5 agent.

Notes of calls and meeting with Agent X show he approved the plan to reveal his MI5 role and was kept updated about the calls. In a later meeting with him, MI5 recorded that he was "happy" to meet with me, which was an offer MI5 had made and I ignored.

But it showed that MI5 and X were well aware of the NCND departure, because the Security Service would obviously only try to arrange a meeting with someone like X if they were an agent.

A graphic showing a reproduction of an MI5 note describing an MI5 officer identified as AA3 in contact with agent X, saying "I also asked X if they would be happy to meet with the journalist. X said they would be happy to do so, and if they did it would hopefully serve to counter some of the conclusions that the journalist had reached about X."

In a telling note, MI5 said X thought that a meeting with me would "hopefully serve to counter some of the conclusions that the journalist had reached about X". This is a violent, misogynistic neo-Nazi, a danger to women and children, yet MI5 wanted to do PR for him with a journalist.

'Back in the box'

These records and others show that the handling team for agent X understood there had been an NCND departure. This was unsurprising as the calls with me at the time made it clear that his case officers knew what was happening.

But the internal investigation report records how, as MI5 was preparing to take the BBC to court to block our story on X, one officer went around convincing colleagues that no such departure had ever taken place.

Officer 3 spoke several times to a member of the agent-handling team within MI5 - known as Officer 4 - regarding what had been said to me about X.

"We have already named him pal," said Officer 4, according to Officer 4's evidence to the investigation and Officer 3 replied: "I can categorically tell you we didn't".

After these conversations, Officer 4 said he felt the other officer had put him "back in his box". Other members of the handling team thought what Officer 3 was saying was "odd" and "weird".

MI5 has given completely contradictory explanations for how the false claim about not departing from NCND had got into its witness statement.

Reuters An exterior view of MI5's headquarters, Thames House, showing a large grey stone neo-classical building, partly concealed by a row of trees along the river, as a police boat speeds past on the water.Reuters
MI5 offered an "unreserved apology" to the court for its false evidence

The claim was given to court by an officer known as Witness A, acting as a corporate witness - meaning he was representing the organisation rather than appearing as someone necessarily involved personally in the events.

When the government was trying to stop the BBC publishing its story about X in 2022, the BBC's special advocates asked how Witness A could be so sure that NCND had not been breached.

The government's lawyers said "Witness A spoke to the MI5 officer who had contact with the BBC" - meaning Officer 2 - and the officer had said he neither confirmed nor denied agent X's role. The lawyers' answers strongly appeared to suggest that the pair had even spoken at the time of the calls with me.

After we exposed Witness A's false evidence, the lawyers' answers created a problem for MI5 as it either suggested Officer 2 had lied all along - or that he and Witness A were both lying.

It has since been claimed that the men did not speak to each other at the time of the calls with me.

Despite not reconciling these contradictory accounts, the investigation concluded "the parties were collectively doing their best to prepare a witness statement that was accurate".

Five times MI5 abandoned 'neither confirm nor deny'

Officer 2 claimed that he had never departed from NCND before and said that was a key reason why he would have recalled doing so.

But new evidence I submitted to court showed he had also told me whether or not five other people I was investigating were working with the Security Service. One of them was an undercover MI5 officer - one of the most sensitive and memorable details an officer could disclose.

Officer 2 had invited me to meet this undercover officer, just as he had offered me the chance to meet Agent X. I had not pursued either offer, which I thought were a crude attempt at pulling me into MI5's orbit.

Indeed, the internal MI5 material suggests that its officers wrongly believe that the role of journalists is to be cheerleaders for the Security Service. I was variously described as "bullish", "stubborn", "awkward", and not "as on board as other journalists".

A heavily blurred photo of X, who is wearing a black T-shirt and holding a large machete
X physically and sexually abused Beth, attacking her with a machete

They said, before their involvement with me, the BBC was seen as "friendly" and "supportive" of MI5. In reality, journalists like me are here to scrutinise and challenge the organisation.

The five other NCND departures were not apparently uncovered by MI5's internal investigators, nor by Sir Jonathan Jones.

Disclosing agent X's role would have been memorable and unusual on its own.

But the fact there were also departures on NCND relating to five other people made the chain of events even more extraordinary, and made any claimed loss of memory by Officer 2 – and in MI5 more widely – simply unbelievable.

The missing interviews

Both inquiries failed to speak to key people who were on the calls they were supposed to be investigating. Neither of them spoke to me - but there were other omissions too.

Sir Jonathan's review wrongly claimed that "only Officer 2 had been party to the calls" with me. In fact, Officer 2 had invited another senior officer to join one of the calls. He introduced himself by saying: "I head up all counter-terrorism investigations here."

He referred to my earlier "conversations" with Officer 2 and was plainly aware of their content - he even made a specific pun about something connected to X.

While MI5's internal investigation was aware that the head of counter-terror investigations had joined one of the calls and mentioned it in their secret report, investigators never bothered interviewing him.

After I submitted new evidence, MI5 was forced to speak to him - but the internal investigators concluded there was nothing to show he knew about NCND departures.

Sir Jonathan had also failed to speak to the MI5 officer at the centre of the case, Officer 2. He had simply adopted the conclusions of the internal inquiry - in which MI5 was investigating itself.

It emerged during the court case that Sir Jonathan did speak to MI5 director general Sir Ken McCallum for his investigation. But when the BBC's special advocates requested any notes of the interview, they were told that none existed.

'Maintaining trust'

"MI5's job is to keep the country safe," Sir Ken said after the High Court judgement. "Maintaining the trust of the courts is essential to that mission."

Because of this case, the courts have made plain that MI5's practices should change. The government says it is reviewing how the service prepares and gives evidence.

Because NCND has been abandoned in relation to Agent X, Beth will now have a fairer trial of her legal claim against MI5. The monolithically consistent way in which the policy has been presented, including in a string of important cases, has been shown to be untrue.

This has become a story about whether MI5 can be believed, and about how it uses its privileged position to conceal and lie.

But in the beginning - and in the end - it is a story about violence against women and girls, about the importance placed on that crucial issue by the state, and about how covering up for abusive misogynists never ends well.

靠发展军工推动经济增长?经济学家有话说

6 July 2025 at 19:17
Sabine Kinkartz
2025-07-06T10:54:31.828Z
图为国防公司MBDA的奠基仪式:德国国防部长皮斯托里乌斯 (Boris Pistorius)(左二)和巴伐利亚州州长索德 (Markus Söder)(右二)都来到现场

(德国之声中文网)2025年3月18日将载入德国史册。当天,德国联邦议院以三分之二的多数票,为史无前例的债务铺平了道路。未来几年,德国将通过贷款融资,投资4000亿欧元用于改善德国老旧的基础设施,并投资1000亿欧元用于气候保护。

德国在国防领域的投资更多,在该领域未来几乎没有限制。正如来自社民党的防长皮斯托里乌斯自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来反复呼吁的那样,一切让德国和联邦国防军“做好战备”的措施都将获得资金支持。德国总理梅尔茨(Friedrich Merz,又译“默茨”)希望将德国军队打造成欧洲最强大的常规军。

对于那些修建公路桥梁、铺设铁路、生产高速互联网光纤电缆的公司来说,这是好消息。对于国防工业而言更是如此。在长达数十年的时间里,国防工业在德国经济结构中的地位持续下降。毕竟在德国,谁还会对坦克感兴趣呢?

2020年,德国最大的国防公司莱茵金属(Rheinmetall AG)的股价为59欧元。2025年6月,其股价在1700欧元至1800欧元间波动。瑞银预测莱茵金属的股价还将进一步上涨,目前的目标价为2200欧元。

“一个巨额经济刺激计划”

国防工业正处于黄金时期,国防企业管理层表示,增加国防开支的受益者不仅仅是企业。 “国防开支是一项巨大的经济刺激计划,”亨索尔特(Hensoldt)国防公司负责人多尔(Oliver Dörre)在2025年3月法兰克福的一次活动上表示。他表示,增加国防投资会提振德国经济,而德国经济目前正处于低迷中。

政界人士也希望在实现国防工业现代化的同时,也为经济增长注入新的动力。不过早在联邦议院历史性的投票前,经济学家们就指出,不要期待过高。“国家军费开支的增加对德国经济有一些提振作用,但其经济刺激力度将很有限,”曼海姆大学经济学教授克雷布斯(Tom Krebs)在一份提交给联邦议院预算委员会的声明中写道。

经济学家警告:经济回报率很低

克雷布斯及其同事卡兹马尔奇克(Patrick Kaczmarczyk)在一项研究中对此进行了详细论述:考察额外政府支出对国内生产总值的贡献时,德国军费开支最多能带来0.5倍数的增幅。换言之,这意味着政府每支出一欧元,最多只能带来50美分的额外经济活动。

相比对于基础设施和教育的投资,或者是对日托中心、学校等儿童保育基础设施的扩建,其回报率会是两倍甚至三倍。克雷布斯表示,从经济角度来说,让经济军事化是一场风险很大的赌博,总体经济回报率很低。

国防开支就像保险

其中原因不难解释。一辆坦克造出来后,无论使用、闲置还是在战场上被摧毁,它都不会为经济创造任何附加值。国防开支就像保险,买保险是为了在紧急情况下获得保障,但是如果不需要保险,保费就打水漂了。

相反,这笔钱如果政府用来投资建设运输路线,货物可以通过这些道路、桥梁和铁路运输到企业。企业可以利用这些货物生产产品,然后再出售。如果建起幼儿园,家长们就可以有时间去上班赚钱。学校可以培养青少年长大成材。

另外,生产国防工业产品目前也只能带来有限的经济增长。德国国防工业的订单正在大幅增加。例如,莱茵金属在2025年第一季度的订单积累额接近630亿欧元。在乌克兰战争爆发前,这一数字还不到目前数字一​​半,约为240亿欧元。业内其他公司也同样繁忙。

如果需求增加、供应有限,通常是因为缺乏竞争,会导致价格上涨。经济学家已经对此进行了提醒。克雷布斯和卡兹马尔奇克写道:“增加国防开支对国防能力的益处,远不及其对国防公司利润率和股息的益处。”

一辆坦克不会为经济创造附加值。国防开支就像保险,而买保险是为了在紧急情况下获得保障

大众工厂改生产坦克?

不过,良好的商业前景也引起了民用工业的关注,尤其是那些受到经济疲软影响的行业。例如,位于科隆的道依茨股份公司(Deutz AG)不仅生产高空作业平台的发动机,还生产农用车辆、挖掘机和其他大型机械的发动机。由于经济疲软,该公司2024年的销售额下降了12%。道依茨本来已经在生产军用车辆的发动机,如今计划大幅扩展这项业务。“对我们来说,国防是一个非常重要且有吸引力的市场,拥有巨大的增长潜力,”该公司首席执行官舒尔特(Sebastian Schulte)在3月表示。

再以大众汽车为例,这家车商目前正深陷危机,已经被迫裁员数千人,位于奥斯纳布吕克的工厂濒临关闭。国防工业的发展可能给其带来转机。莱茵金属正在研究是否也能在那里生产坦克。而生产卡车的防弹驾驶室的计划已经制定好了。

将激光技术用于防御无人机?

对于机械工程公司通快(Trumpf)来说,改变业务领域并非易事。其股东协议规定,该家族企业不会参与武器生产。通快监事会主席兼共同所有人莱宾格(Peter Leibinger)希望改变这一现状。在今年2月的慕尼黑安全会议上,他告诉《商报》:“我们经济界也要重新评估我们对建设防御性民主的必要贡献,从内部确认国防能力和必要物资的价值。”

话虽如此,但通快希望做出调整显然也有商业原因。该公司在激光技术领域拥有丰富的专业知识,但正在努力应对订单的下滑。 “即使是通快公司也无法逃脱持续近两年的全球经济衰退,”该公司在宣布裁员1000人的声明中表示。如果将激光技术用于防御无人机,其订单肯定不再是问题了。

更多阅读——德国联邦国防军:巨额资金将花在哪里?

目前针对间谍无人机,德国还没有好的防御措施。如果通快将其先进的激光技术用于无人机,那么订单肯定不是问题了

研发可以从中受益

这些都是有利于经济的例子。增加国防开支也可能会对研发产生积极影响。曼海姆的经济学家克雷布斯和卡兹马尔奇克在他们的研究中也承认这一点。不过,他们也写道,必须确保军事研究不仅带来国防领域的技术发展,也能引发民用经济领域的技术发展。

这就需要特定的控制机制。这两位学者建议国家直接投资国防企业。这样,“公共资金的使用可以更加精准,资金的使用也可以得到更好的控制。”

DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

相关图集:德国联邦国防军亟待解决的装备“黑洞”

豹2型坦克:联邦议院国防专员巴特尔斯(Hans-Peter Bartels)在其一月底提交的年度报告中写道:“联邦国防军远说不上装备齐全。几乎每个领域都缺器材。”联邦国防军的豹2型主战坦克也存在这个问题,只有一小部分可以投入使用。
美洲狮步兵战车:“美洲狮”步兵战车的情况也不乐观。今年2月,在244辆交付的战车中,只有60辆可以投入使用。国防部对于这些新设备的交付质量不满。实际上,它们只是试用版:预计这款战车完全准备就绪不会早于2024年。
修来修去:维修部队永远在忙。而这里也不是没有问题:有时会缺少重要的备件。国防专员巴特尔斯抱怨道,目前工业维修总是“等待时间过长”。
A400M运输机:不上天的飞机:对于军用运输机A400M而言,这是常态。在很长一段时间里,这款运输机被看作是“问题飞机”——费用比预计的高;到货比预计的晚;功能比预计的少。由于可以投入使用的飞机太少,目前联邦国防军还在继续使用已用了50个年头的C-160运输机。
虎式军用直升机:根据一份内部报告,联邦国防军的直升机中也只有一小部分达到战备水平。报告称,德国陆军航空兵有53架这种虎式武装直升机,然而去年平均只有11.6架可以投入使用。而NH90和CH-53型运输直升机的情况也是类似灾难性的。
海军训练舰“戈尔希·福克”:海军训练舰“戈尔希·福克”(Gorch Fock)本来的维修费用应只有1000万欧元。如今,花销已经爆炸,激增至1.35亿欧元,目前付了将近7000万。前防长冯·德莱恩承认,联邦国防军在预估费用时出现严重错误。
212型潜艇:德国联邦国防军总检察长佐恩(Eberhard Zorn)在今年3月的一份内部报告中对目前的情况表示不满,海军的情况尤为岌岌可危:在去年的5个月中,没有一艘212型潜艇处于战备状态。该报告引发的后果是:时任防长冯·德莱恩表示,未来不再公开这些数字。
G36自动步枪:士兵们想要这款突击机枪,而防长不想要。这款机枪因为在实验室极端温度条件下测试时出现射击不准确而被剔除。然而,配置后继枪型的过程非常不顺利,可以概括为花费高、运气差、故障多。
基本装备也存在缺陷:不仅仅是这些大型设备存在问题:国防专员巴特尔斯指出,防护背心、靴子、衣服、头盔以及夜视设备这些装备也太少,而造成这些问题的主要原因是繁冗复杂的官僚体制。


使用 Rspack 构建 Halo 插件的前端部分

By: Ryan Wang
16 June 2025 at 14:37

更新(25-06-19)

现在已经为插件的 UI 部分提供了新的配置方式,@halo-dev/ui-plugin-bundler-kit@2.21.1 包提供了 rsbuildConfig 方法,可以更加方便的使用 Rsbuild 来构建 UI 部分。

Rsbuild 基于 Rspack 构建,提供了更完善的 loader 配置,所以在封装的时候就直接选择了 Rsbuild。

安装依赖:

pnpm install @halo-dev/ui-plugin-bundler-kit@2.21.1 @rsbuild/core -D

rsbuild.config.mjs:

import { rsbuildConfig } from "@halo-dev/ui-plugin-bundler-kit";

export default rsbuildConfig()

package.json 添加 scripts:

{
  "type": "module",
  "scripts": {
    "dev": "rsbuild build --env-mode development --watch",
    "build": "rsbuild build"
  }
}

需要注意的是,为了适应新版的 plugin-starter,默认生产构建输出目录改为了 ui/build/dist ,如果你要从已有的插件项目迁移到 Rsbuild,建议参考 halo-dev/plugin-starter#52 对 Gradle 脚本进行改动,或者自定义 Rsbuild 的配置以保持原有的输出目录配置:

import { rsbuildConfig } from "@halo-dev/ui-plugin-bundler-kit";

const OUT_DIR_PROD = "../src/main/resources/console";
const OUT_DIR_DEV = "../build/resources/main/console";

export default rsbuildConfig({
  rsbuild: ({ envMode }) => {
    const isProduction = envMode === "production";
    const outDir = isProduction ? OUT_DIR_PROD : OUT_DIR_DEV;

    return {
      resolve: {
        alias: {
          "@": "./src",
        },
      },
      output: {
        distPath: {
          root: outDir,
        },
      },
    };
  },
});

示例:halo-sigs/plugin-migrate

了解更多:https://docs.halo.run/developer-guide/plugin/basics/ui/build


前情提要

Halo 插件的 UI 部分(Console / UC)的实现方式其实很简单,本质上就是构建一个结构固定的大对象,交给 Halo 去解析,其中包括全局注册的组件、路由定义、扩展点等。 基于这个前提,在实现插件机制时,主要面临的问题就是如何将这个大对象传递给 Halo。当初做了非常多的尝试,最终选择构建为 IIFE(Immediately Invoked Function Expression,立即执行函数),然后 Halo 通过读取 window[PLUGIN_NAME](PLUGIN_NAME 即插件名)来获取这个对象。 构建方案采用 Vite,并提供了统一的构建配置。回过头来看,这个方案存在不少问题:

  1. 会污染 window 对象,虽然目前并没有出现因为这个导致的问题,但是从长远来看,这个方案并不是最优的。(当然,使用 Rspack 来构建并不是为了解决这个问题)

  2. Vite 不支持 IIFE / UMD 格式的代码分割(主要是 Rollup 还不支持),无法像 ESM(ECMAScript Module)那样实现异步加载模块的机制。

  3. 基于第 2 点,如果插件中实现了较多的功能,可能会导致最终产物体积巨大,尤其是当用户安装了过多的插件时,会导致页面加载缓慢。

    1. www.halo.run 为例,gzip 之前接近 10M 的 bundle.js,gzip 之后也有 2M - 3M。

    2. 以此博客为例,gzip 之后也有 1.8M 的 bundle.js。

  4. 基于第 2 点,如果不支持代码分块(Chunk),也无法充分利用资源缓存,访问页面时,也会一次性加载所有插件的代码(即便当前页面不需要)。

基于以上问题,我开始寻找其他替代方案,最终通过翻阅 Rspack(Webpack 的 Rust 实现)的文档发现,Webpack 能够通过配置实现 IIFE 格式的代码分割,最终选择 Rspack 作为尝试。

基本的 Rspack 配置

安装依赖:

pnpm install @rspack/cli @rspack/core vue-loader -D

package.json 添加 scripts:

{
  "type": "module",
  "scripts": {
    "dev": "NODE_ENV=development rspack build --watch",
    "build": "NODE_ENV=production rspack build"
  }
}

rspack.config.mjs:

import { defineConfig } from '@rspack/cli';
import path from 'path';
import process from 'process';
import { VueLoaderPlugin } from 'vue-loader';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'url';

// plugin.yaml 中的 metadata.name
const PLUGIN_NAME = '<YOUR_PLUGIN_NAME>';

const isProduction = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production';
const dirname = path.dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url));

// 开发环境启动直接输出到插件项目的 build 目录,无需重启整个插件
// 生产环境输出到插件项目的 src/main/resources/console 目录下
const outDir = isProduction ? '../src/main/resources/console' : '../build/resources/main/console';

export default defineConfig({
  mode: process.env.NODE_ENV,
  entry: {
    // 入口文件,可以参考:https://docs.halo.run/developer-guide/plugin/basics/ui/entry
    main: './src/index.ts',
  },
  plugins: [new VueLoaderPlugin()],
  resolve: {
    alias: {
      '@': path.resolve(dirname, 'src'),
    },
    extensions: ['.ts', '.js'],
  },
  output: {
    // 资源根路径,加载代码分块(Chunk)的时候,会根据这个路径去加载资源
    publicPath: `/plugins/${PLUGIN_NAME}/assets/console/`,
    chunkFilename: '[id]-[hash:8].js',
    cssFilename: 'style.css',
    path: path.resolve(outDir),
    library: {
      // 将对象挂载到 window 上
      type: 'window',
      export: 'default',
      name: PLUGIN_NAME,
    },
    clean: true,
    iife: true,
  },
  optimization: {
    providedExports: false,
    realContentHash: true,
  },
  experiments: {
    css: true,
  },
  devtool: false,
  module: {
    rules: [
      {
        test: /\.ts$/,
        exclude: [/node_modules/],
        loader: 'builtin:swc-loader',
        options: {
          jsc: {
            parser: {
              syntax: 'typescript',
            },
          },
        },
        type: 'javascript/auto',
      },
      {
        test: /\.vue$/,
        loader: 'vue-loader',
        options: {
          experimentalInlineMatchResource: true,
        },
      },
    ],
  },
  // 这部分依赖已经由 Halo 提供,所以需要标记为外部依赖
  externals: {
    vue: 'Vue',
    'vue-router': 'VueRouter',
    '@vueuse/core': 'VueUse',
    '@vueuse/components': 'VueUse',
    '@vueuse/router': 'VueUse',
    '@halo-dev/console-shared': 'HaloConsoleShared',
    '@halo-dev/components': 'HaloComponents',
    '@halo-dev/api-client': 'HaloApiClient',
    '@halo-dev/richtext-editor': 'RichTextEditor',
    axios: 'axios',
  },
});

配置需要懒加载的路由或者组件:

在 index.ts 中配置路由:

import { definePlugin } from '@halo-dev/console-shared';
import { defineAsyncComponent } from 'vue';
import { VLoading } from '@halo-dev/components';
import 'uno.css';
-import DemoPage from './views/DemoPage.vue';

export default definePlugin({
  routes: [
    {
      parentName: 'Root',
      route: {
        path: 'demo',
        name: 'DemoPage',
-        component: DemoPage,
+        component: defineAsyncComponent({
+          loader: () => import('./views/DemoPage.vue'),
+          loadingComponent: VLoading,
+        }),
      ...
      },
    },
  ],
  extensionPoints: {},
});

注:推荐使用 defineAsyncComponent 包裹,而不是直接使用 () => import() 的方式,后者会在进入路由之前就开始加载页面的代码分块(Chunk),导致页面在加载期间没有任何响应。

构建产物示例:

❯ ll src/main/resources/console
.rw-r--r-- 191k ryanwang staff 16 Jun 10:47  359-3bebb968.js
.rw-r--r--  83k ryanwang staff 16 Jun 10:47  962-3bebb968.js
.rw-r--r-- 4.1k ryanwang staff 16 Jun 10:47  main.js

其他配置

集成 Scss / Sass

安装依赖:

pnpm install sass-embedded sass-loader -D

rspack.config.mjs 添加配置:

import { defineConfig } from '@rspack/cli';
import path from 'path';
import process from 'process';
import { VueLoaderPlugin } from 'vue-loader';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'url';
+import * as sassEmbedded from "sass-embedded";

...

export default defineConfig({
  ...
  module: {
    rules: [
      ...
+      {
+        test: /\.(sass|scss)$/,
+        use: [
+          {
+            loader: "sass-loader",
+            options: {
+              api: "modern-compiler",
+              implementation: sassEmbedded,
+            },
+          },
+        ],
+        type: "css/auto",
+      },
    ],
  },
...
});

集成 UnoCSS

如果你习惯使用 TailwindCSS 或者 UnoCSS 来编写样式,可以参考以下配置:

本文推荐使用 UnoCSS,因为可以利用 UnoCSS 的 transformerCompileClass 来编译样式,预防与 Halo 或者其他插件产生样式冲突。

安装依赖:

pnpm install unocss @unocss/webpack @unocss/eslint-config style-loader css-loader -D

入口文件(src/index.ts)添加导入:

import 'uno.css';

rspack.config.mjs 添加配置:

import { defineConfig } from '@rspack/cli';
import path from 'path';
import process from 'process';
import { VueLoaderPlugin } from 'vue-loader';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'url';
+import { UnoCSSRspackPlugin } from '@unocss/webpack/rspack';

...

export default defineConfig({
  ...
  plugins: [
    new VueLoaderPlugin(),
+    UnoCSSRspackPlugin()
  ],
  ...
  module: {
    rules: [
      ...
+      {
+        test: /\.css$/i,
+        use: ['style-loader', 'css-loader'],
+        type: 'javascript/auto',
+      },
    ],
  },
...
});

uno.config.ts:

import { defineConfig, presetWind3, transformerCompileClass } from 'unocss';

export default defineConfig({
  presets: [presetWind3()],
  transformers: [transformerCompileClass()],
});

.eslintrc.cjs:

/* eslint-env node */
require('@rushstack/eslint-patch/modern-module-resolution');

module.exports = {
  root: true,
  extends: [
    'plugin:vue/vue3-recommended',
    'eslint:recommended',
    '@vue/eslint-config-typescript/recommended',
    '@vue/eslint-config-prettier',
+    '@unocss',
  ],
  env: {
    'vue/setup-compiler-macros': true,
  },
+  rules: {
+    "@unocss/enforce-class-compile": 1,
+  },
};

总结

以上就是针对 Halo 插件前端部分的 Rspack 配置。我已经对 Halo 官方维护的部分插件进行了迁移,几乎没有遇到什么问题,并且带来的收益非常明显:www.halo.run 和本博客的 bundle.js 在 gzip 之后仅有不到 200k,各个页面也只会在访问时加载所需的资源。

需要注意的是,我对这些构建工具并不算非常熟悉,所以配置仍然有优化空间。我们会持续优化,后续也会考虑提供一个通用的 CLI 或 Rspack 配置,期望实现如下效果:

rspack.config.mjs:

import { rspackConfig } from '@halo-dev/ui-bundler-kit';

export default rspackConfig({
  ...
});

或者基于 Rspack 包装一个 CLI:

plugin.config.mjs:

import { defineConfig } from '@halo-dev/ui-bundler-kit';

export default defineConfig({
  ...
});

package.json:

{
  "scripts": {
    "dev": "halo-ui dev",
    "build": "halo-ui build"
  }
}

参考文档

感谢阅读,欢迎交流与指正!

Paintings of Norwegian Fjords 1900-28

By: hoakley
6 July 2025 at 19:30

On the second day of this weekend’s visit to the fjords of Norway, we’ve reached the twentieth century, and a pupil of Eilert Adelsteen Normann (1848-1918).

gruttefienkiekebuschfjordlandscapepc
Elisabeth Grüttefien-Kiekebusch (1871-1954), Fjord Landscape (date not known), oil on canvas, 80 x 120 cm, Private collection. Wikimedia Commons.

Clearly inspired by Normann’s views of the fjords, Elisabeth Grüttefien’s style is quite distinct, as shown in her undated Fjord Landscape. Her greens are more vibrant, and there are some fluffy red patches in her blue sky.

gruttefienkiekebuschfjordsteamer
Elisabeth Grüttefien-Kiekebusch (1871-1954), Fjord with steamer (c 1900), further details not known. Wikimedia Commons.

In her Fjord with Steamer from about 1900, she includes a sailing boat and one of the larger steamships, just as might have appeared in Normann’s paintings.

gruttefienkiekebuschfjordlandscape
Elisabeth Grüttefien-Kiekebusch (1871-1954), Fjord Landscape (c 1900), further details not known. Wikimedia Commons.

She also found some different motifs. In Fjord Landscape, also from about 1900, it is spring, and there’s still plenty of snow left from the winter. Groups of birch trees have yet to come into leaf.

Sadly, Elisabeth Grüttefien then vanished, and her paintings stopped.

Nikolai Astrup, the last landscape artist in this series, spent most of his life in the hamlet of Jølster, to the north of Sognefjord, where his father was the parish priest. He trained under two great Norwegian painters, Harriet Backer and Christian Krogh, and under Lovis Corinth in Berlin. Unlike the previous artists, Astrup was no visitor to the fjords, he lived among them.

astrupkollen
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), Kollen (The Fell) (1905-06), oil on canvas, 100.2 x 120.3 cm, Bergen Kunstmuseum, KODE, Bergen, Norway. Wikimedia Commons.

Kollen, translated as The Barren Mountain, or simply The Fell, (1905-06) shows one of the huge rocky outcrops towering over the coast of fjords and lakes in this part of Norway. Astrup must have painted this during the late winter.

astrupfuneralday
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), Funeral Day in Jølster (before 1908), oil on canvas, 68 x 73 cm, Bergen Kunstmuseum, KODE, Bergen, Norway. The Athenaeum.

Astrup recorded the public rites of the community, as in his Funeral Day in Jølster (before 1908). With the grandeur of the hills behind, a small party escorts the coffin of one of the villagers. His father, the pastor, leads the procession to the small churchyard, a rite that had taken place many times over the preceding centuries, and was to follow the artist’s own early death in 1928.

astrupgreyspringevening
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), Grey Spring Evening (before 1908), oil on canvas, 98.2 x 106.2 cm, Bergen Kunstmuseum, KODE, Bergen, Norway. The Athenaeum.

Grey Spring Evening (before 1908) is one of Astrup’s finest paintings of Jølster Lake. In its suffuse light, the hill dominating the opposite bank has rich earths and a shallow strip of green fields near the water’s edge. The pale green spring foliage on the trees in the foreground is muted, and a rowing boat out in the middle of the lake seems a tiny speck lost in the midst of nature.

astrupjunenightoldjolsterfarm
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), A June Night and Old Jølster Farm (before 1911), oil on canvas, 88 x 105 cm, Private collection. The Athenaeum.

Jølster Lake is fed from meltwater from Jostedalsbreen, and there’s still abundant snow on the mountains in Astrup’s view of A June Night and Old Jølster Farm, with its lush carpet of marsh marigolds.

astrupkarifromsunde
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), Kari – Motif from Sunde (c 1918), oil on canvas, dimensions not known, Private collection. The Athenaeum.

His prints clearly influenced his painting style. Kari – Motif from Sunde (c 1918) shows an elfin figure of a girl who has been painted as if in an illustration, or perhaps one of Carl Larsson’s popular albums.

astrupcoldframemound
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), The Cold Frame Mound (c 1921-28), oil on canvas, 77 x 108 cm, Private collection. The Athenaeum.

The Cold Frame Mound (c 1921-28) reveals the Astrup family vegetable garden by their house at Sandalstrand, including the ‘cold frame’ of the title. Despite their name, cold frames actually protect plants from the cold, and are used to enable earlier starting of vegetable crops. Sinking the cold frame into the ground (and siting it on a high point) protects its contents from ground frosts, while covering it with glazed windows ensures that daylight can raise the air and soil temperatures within it.

astrupbefringmountainfarms
Nikolai Astrup (1880–1928), The Befring Mountain Farms (c 1924-28), oil on canvas with woodblock printing, 89 x 110 cm, Private collection. The Athenaeum.

For much of his career, Astrup’s prints and paintings had informed and influenced one another; The Befring Mountain Farms (c 1924-28) is an example of his mixing the media in a single work, coupling woodblock printing with oil painting. It shows an extended series of farm buildings not far from Jølster Lake.

Astrup uses the natural environment to generate one of his most magical works. Two people are engaged in milking a goat by the entrance to a building in the left foreground. The farm buildings have turf roofs with luxuriant growth, in one case sporting a small tree. Spindly birches stand next to them, their leaves shimmering in the light of the crescent moon. That moon is reflected in a small pond surrounded by marsh marigolds in full flower. You can hear the silence among the massive rock bluffs towering over the lake, and that in the centre looks like the head of an owl, watching over the stillness of the night.

特朗普正在让欧洲再次伟大?

6 July 2025 at 18:47
Thomas Kohlmann
2025-07-06T10:37:01.087Z
面对特朗普贸易政策引发的不确定性增加,投资者对欧洲资产的兴趣正在升温

(德国之声中文网)时间紧迫:美欧关税争端达成协议的最后期限是7月9日。美国是否会持续对欧洲征收高额关税,局势是否会升级,目前尚无定论。欧盟将采取何种措施应对,同样也不明朗。尽管近几个月来特朗普政府主动出击、四处施压,然而国际投资者对美国经济的怀疑态度日益加深,同时对欧洲的兴趣也日益浓厚,尤其是对欧洲最大经济体德国。

美股标普500指数自今年年初以来一直处于下跌状态,但德国DAX指数却上涨了超15%,创下新高。

自特朗普上任以来,美元兑欧元已贬值10%,美元兑英镑、美元兑瑞士法郎也出现下跌。

国际货币基金组织、德国央行都敲响警钟

德国央行行长纳格尔(Joachim Nagel)在5月份提出警告,如果关税问题得不到解决,金融市场将再次陷入动荡。纳格尔用尖锐的言辞描述了美国宣布对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收高额关税后,股价下跌、美元走弱,同时债券收益率上升的情况:“有时,在某些日子里,我感觉我们离金融市场崩溃不远了。”

国际货币基金组织(IMF)则指出,美国债务可能失控。国际货币基金组织副总裁戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)最近在接受英国《金融时报》采访时警告称,美国预算赤字过大,美国需要解决其“不断增长”的债务负担。

国籍货币基金组织首席经济学家Gita Gopinath

根据美国财政部数字,美国背负着超过36万亿美元的巨额债务。去年,美国债务总额超过国内生产总值(GDP)的120%,几乎是德国债务与GDP比率的两倍。而且,新债务每年都在增加。

投资者担忧美国市场

经济学家辛恩(Hans-Werner Sinn)也认为,当前美国债务模式的生存空间正在缩小。“美国人将不得不勒紧裤腰带。这种生活水平,这种由购物中心和少数工厂组成的世界,从长远来看是无法持续的,”这位慕尼黑Ifo经济研究所前所长在接受DW采访时表示。

经济学家奥萨(Ralph Ossa)表示能理解美国正在寻求减少其与欧盟的贸易逆差,不过,这位世贸组织首席经济学家也认同主流经济学界的观点,“从经济学角度上来看,基本上所有经济学家都认为关税不是解决贸易逆差的合适手段”,他对DW说。

奥萨将美国的做法比作一个人购买力超过其工作收入并因此负债。“如果我遇到债务问题——比如因为我买了太多车,那么当然可以考虑对汽车征税,这样我就不会再买那么多了。但这显然不是解决问题最直接的方法,”奥萨在描述美国的做法时说道。

“情绪彻底逆转”

德国复兴信贷银行行长温特尔斯(Stefan Wintels)最近在接受德国《商报》采访表示,特朗普咄咄逼人的贸易和关税政策正在吓跑投资者,迫使他们将目光转向欧洲。“我观察到,国际投资者对德国的兴趣正在增长”。他表示,许多机构的投资组合中美股权重过高,机构投资者希望能增加对欧洲、尤其是德国的投资。

温特尔斯还表示,短短几个月内,国际投资者对欧洲和德国的情绪彻底逆转了。“在我30多年的职业生涯中,我从未见过如此迅速的情绪转变。我们应该竭尽全力,让德国和欧洲能利用好这种强劲势头。”

感受到欧洲、德国的吸引力

即使黑石集团(Blackstone)这样的国际资管巨头,也正在被欧洲所吸引。黑石集团首席执行官施瓦茨曼(Steve Schwarzman)宣布,未来十年在欧洲投资最高5000亿美元。在地缘政治动荡的时代,欧洲以及德国对投资者的吸引力日益增强,这与德国高额的基础设施、国防投资计划也不无关系。

施瓦兹曼(Stephen Schwarzman)是全球最大的另类投资管理公司黑石集团的负责人

“我们认为这对我们来说是一个绝佳的机会,”施瓦茨曼在6月初接受彭博电视台采访时表示。“他们正在开始改变策略,我们相信这将带来更高的增长率。”

布鲁塞尔已经认识到,欧盟必须更好利用欧盟内部巨大的消费市场。欧盟委员会希望着手解决其中“十大弊端”,一份被媒体平台“Table Briefings”揭秘的欧盟战略文件进行了如下计算:要抵消对美出口20%的下降,欧盟内部货物贸易只要增长2.4%就够了。实现这一目标的途径包括减少官僚主义。预计这将尤其有利于中小企业,使其能够更轻松地在欧盟内部跨境运营。此外,布鲁塞尔还需要加快与伙伴国家达成自贸协定的步伐。

目前,欧洲已经从新视角中收益。在6月初 SuperReturn International(“国际超级回报大会”)投资者大会上,数千名大型投资者齐聚柏林,其资产管理规模总计约46万亿欧元,被誉为全球规模最大的私募股权和风险投资大会。很多资管机构都对欧洲作为投资目的地表现出浓厚的兴趣。总部位于纽约的阿波罗全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)表示,其8000亿美元投资组合中,欧洲权重已达到约1000亿美元,并计划在未来十年进一步加大对德国的投资力度。

“我们认为,仅在德国这个国家,未来十年就有机会投资1000亿美元,” 阿波罗全球管理公司泽尔特(Jim Zelter)告诉《金融时报》,并补充说,“这是一个全球范围内都难以超越的数字。”

DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

相关图集:特朗普关税战2.0时间线梳理

2025年2月1日 |对墨、加、中加征关税:特朗普上任后首次大规模加征关税:自2月1日开始对美国三大贸易伙伴加拿大、墨西哥和中国加征关税。特朗普宣布对邻国加拿大和墨西哥进口商品加征25%的关税,指责两国未能阻止非法移民进入美国;对来自中国商品加征10%的关税,指责中国在芬太尼生产中扮演重要角色。
2025年2月10日 |加征钢铝关税 无例外豁免:特朗普2月10日签署行政令,对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝制品加征25%关税,并取消加拿大、墨西哥和巴西等钢铝主要供应国的免税额度。
2025年3月26日|宣布对进口汽车全面征税:特朗普于3月26日宣布,自4月3日起,对所有进口汽车与轻型卡车征收25%的关税。全球汽车供应链受冲击,日韩汽车产业首当其冲。受此消息影响,丰田、本田、现代和起亚等汽车制造商股价大幅下跌,总市值蒸发约165亿美元。
2025年4月2日|宣布“对等关税”:特朗普4月2日在白宫玫瑰花园举行“让美国再次富有”(Make America Wealthy Again)记者会,宣布“对等关税”措施。美国对大多数国家征收10%的基准关税,但针对特定国家征收更高税额。中国、欧盟和越南分别面临34%、20%和46%的关税; 日本、韩国、印度、柬埔寨和台湾,分别受到24%、25%、26%、49%和32%进口关税的打击。
2025年4月9日|暂缓关税90日 中国除外:特朗普4月9日在大规模“对等关税”上路不到24小时后出现政策大转弯,宣布暂缓征收“对等关税”90天,在此期间,税率将统一降至10%的基准关税。但中国被排除在暂缓名单之外,不仅如此,还将对中国的关税加码至145%,其中包含了美国此前指控中国打击芬太尼不力而征收的20%关税。
2025年5月4日 | 对美国境外制作的电影征收100%关税:特朗普5月4日以“国安威胁”为由,宣布将对非美国制作的电影征收100%关税,理由是要“拯救美国电影业”。
2025年5月12日|中美关税战90天“停火协议”:美中高层在瑞士进行谈判后于5月12日发布联合声明,就90天的“暂停期”达成协议:美国对大多数中国输美商品加征145%的关税将在5月14日前下调至30%,30%关税里包括针对芬太尼问题额外施加的20%惩罚性关税;中国对美产品加征的125%关税则将降至10%。美中双边早前不断叠加的报复性关税,在这波协商中几乎都被取消。(图为美财政部长贝森特与贸易谈判代表格里尔出席美中贸易会谈)
2025年5月13日|美大幅下调中国“小包裹”关税:白宫5月13发布行政命令,将从5月14日起将对中国低价值货物(不超过800美元)征收的“最低限度”关税从120%下调至54%,原计划的200美元固定费用征税方案被搁置,现行的100美元固定费用将继续执行。
5月23日 对阵欧盟:特朗普威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品加征50%的统一关税。他同时警告苹果公司,若其在美国销售的手机是在海外生产的,将面临25%的关税。两天后,特朗普收回了对欧盟加征50%关税的威胁,他表示,与欧委会主席冯德莱恩通电话后,同意将美国和欧盟的谈判期限延长至7月9日。
5月28日 美国法院裁定特朗普对等关税“越权”:美国联邦国际贸易法庭裁定,特朗普今年4月2日对多国征收的对等关税,以及早前向中国、加拿大和墨西哥加征的报复性关税都属于“非法”。判决认定,特朗普征收全球关税的行为超出了《国际经济紧急权力法》(IEEPA)赋予总统的权限。美政府表示将对该裁决提出上诉。
5月29日 美国上诉法院暂准特朗普关税恢复执行:美国联邦上诉法院一天后推翻该判决,让特朗普的关税政策得以持续实施。上诉法院指出,为了审理特朗普政府的上诉,将先暂缓此前法院的裁决,并命令原告及特朗普政府分别在6月5日和6月9日前提交回应文件。
5月30日 特朗普全面上调钢铝关税:美国总统特朗普宣布将对全球钢铁和铝产品的进口关税提高至50%。中国是美国的第三大铝供应国。他指责中国未按约降低关税,取消针对稀土等产品的贸易限制。他说:“中国完全违反了与我们达成的协议。不能再做好好先生了!”
6月10日 美中谈判双方宣布原则上达成贸易框架协议:中国和美国官员在英国伦敦举行贸易谈判,经过两天的会议,6月10日,双方宣布原则上已达成贸易框架协议,以落实5月在瑞士日内瓦的共识、还有两国领袖上周的通话内容。特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social上表示,按照美中达成的新的贸易协议,美国将从中国获得稀土磁体。他还表示,将允许中国学生在协议达成后继续留在美国大学学习。

网上卖的 DIY 净水器靠谱吗?

By: Reach
6 July 2025 at 11:06
Reach:

家里喝的主要还是纯净水,最近想干脆整个净水器,省的一直要订水。

于是了解了下,发现大多换滤芯都很贵,有些都快赶上半个净水器价格了。

后来搜到 DIY 净水器的介绍视频,有些博主直接卖 DIY 净水器,价格方面挺有诱惑力。

想知道这种 DIY 的,在卫生、品控和售后等方面靠谱吗,和大厂差距多大?

有没有朋友尝试过,可以现身说法下~

宝子们一年下来,停车费花了多少啊?

By: jacketma
5 July 2025 at 22:49
jacketma:

上班不是每天开,下雨才开车,小区地面无固定停车费一年 2400 ,回来晚了没位子还得停外面,早上再停进来。公司那边停车场一天 15 元封顶,一个月差不多也要百来块,节假日出去一年下来停车费毛姑姑也得五六百,违章停车罚了三回 600 块(不违章的地方没有,要么就停车场特别远),一年下来油费都没停车费多了 大概算一下,停车费一年快小五千了,宝子们一年下来,停车费花了多少啊?

小弟不是那种喜欢开车的,除了假日远途开还能感觉到一些驾驶的乐趣,平时在市区真的经常越开越郁闷,希望无人驾驶车赶紧发展,以后都不用自己买车了

请教下如今 sata ssd 如何买?什么行情?有啥推荐的?

5 July 2025 at 19:17
4zp8oaahntzvhd: 最近买了个盒子,带 2.5 寸硬盘位,随想买个 ssd 。
一搜,好多都是杂牌,有些是拆机盘矿盘,再一搜,好像 ssd 猫腻不少,什么清零盘啥的,还没好好去看是个啥。
外加,ssd 分容量,容量越大寿命越高。还分等级,mlc tlc 如今 mlc 应该异常稀缺了吧。。。
如果做 sata ssd 的话,还可以挑 ngff 盘转接 sata ,这也是一个方法

所以请教下万能的 V 友,你留意到最近有啥好盘?
作为盒子轻 NAS 的盘,希望大一点,大到 2t 规格也成。感觉下载这个需求也是免不了了。。。
求指教,谢谢了,感谢。🫡🫡🫡

RustDesk 自建中转服务器卡顿,疑是 UDP 打洞遭运营商限制

By: jiny28
5 July 2025 at 18:17
jiny28:

自建的 RustDesk 中转服务器( hbbs/hsts )遇到卡顿问题,连接类型一直显示“加密中继连接”。带宽充足,判断是 UDP 打洞失败,所有流量都走中继了。服务器部署在 OpenWrt 路由器上。目前怀疑是网络环境或运营商限制,希望大家能帮我看看。

我的环境: RustDesk 服务端( hbbs/hsts )运行在 OpenWrt 路由器上。

路由器有真实公网 IPv4 ,规则转发 tcp 生效。

上级光猫是桥接模式,OpenWrt WAN 口 IP 与 ip.cn 显示一致,已排除 CG-NAT 。

所有 RustDesk TCP 端口( 21115, 21117, 21118, 21119 )转发正常,公网可访问,文件传输等功能正常。

已排查步骤及结果: OpenWrt 防火墙设置:

端口转发: 所有 RustDesk 端口(包括 21116/udp )均已设置转发到路由器自身 IP ,并已启用。

防火墙区域:WAN 口到自身( Input )等默认策略均为“接受”。

通信规则: 未发现任何针对 UDP 21116 端口的显式拒绝规则。

结论:OpenWrt 防火墙配置看起来没问题。

Nmap 端口扫描 UDP 21116: 从外部客户端扫描 21116/udp 端口,结果是 open|filtered unknown 。

分析:Nmap 无法确定端口是开放还是被过滤,暗示 UDP 流量可能不稳定或受阻。

UDP 监听测试: 已确认 hbbs 在 OpenWrt 上监听 21116/udp 。我将进行实际测试:在路由器上运行 nc -ul 21116 ,同时从外部客户端 echo "hello test" | ncat -u ip 21116 来验证是否收到数据。

结果是未收到数据。

我的推论: 综合以上情况,特别是 TCP 正常、UDP open|filtered 以及 RustDesk 始终中继,我高度怀疑电信运营商对 UDP 流量(尤其是 P2P 打洞所需的)进行了隐性限制或 QoS 策略。 即使我路由器配置无误,流量可能在运营商网络层面就被丢弃或异常处理,导致打洞失败。

China and Russia Keep Their Distance From Iran During Crisis

6 July 2025 at 17:01
Some U.S. officials talked about an “axis” of authoritarian nations, but the American and Israeli war with Iran has exposed the limits of that idea.

© Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

An ambulance burned in an Israeli attack in Tehran last month. Despite the appearance of unity, Russia, China and North Korea did not rush to Iran’s aid during its war with Israel or when U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites.

Netanyahu Heads to Washington as Trump Pushes for Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire

6 July 2025 at 16:39
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is set to meet with President Trump on Monday as attention has turned from Iran to a cease-fire for Gaza.

© Pool photo by Jack Guez

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel visited the site of an Iranian strike in Rehovot, Israel, last month during the 12-day Israel-Iran war.
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