谈还是打?特朗普的伊朗问题决断时刻
谈还是打?特朗普的伊朗问题决断时刻





The opening of HS2 will be delayed beyond the target date of 2033, the BBC understands.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to tell Parliament on Wednesday that there is "no reasonable way to deliver" the railway line on schedule and within budget - but is not expected to say how long the delay will be.
She is set to outline the findings of an independent review into HS2, in which a "litany of failure" has been blamed for ballooning costs.
It is the latest setback for the high-speed rail project, which has been scaled back and delayed repeatedly.
Alexander is expected to say that Conservative governments presided over the cost of HS2 rising by £37bn between 2012, when the line was first approved, and the general election last year.
Under the original plans, HS2 was intended to create high-speed rail links between London and major cities in the Midlands and North of England.
It was designed to cut journey times and expand capacity on the railways, but has has faced myriad challenges and soaring costs.
It has already been pared down to a high-speed link between Birmingham and London, with the Birmingham to Manchester leg cancelled in 2023.
Confirming that decision, the then-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said costs were getting "totally out of control".
That was two years after a planned eastern leg between Birmingham and Leeds was axed.
In 2010, it was estimated HS2 would cost £33bn and open in 2026.
Last year, the Department for Transport said the remaining project cost was estimated at between £45bn and £54bn in 2019 prices - but HS2 management has estimated it could be as high as £57bn.
On Wednesday, the transport secretary is expected to announce the findings of a review conducted by the former chief executive of Crossrail, James Stewart, which was commissioned last year to "investigate the oversight of major transport infrastructure projects".
In October last year, a new chief executive, Mark Wild, was put in place as part of efforts to get control of rising costs.
When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, officials in Russia described the current escalation in the Middle East as "alarming" and "dangerous."
Still, Russian media were quick to stress the potential positives for Moscow.
Among them:
However, the longer Israel's military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events.
"The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow," wrote Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov in business daily Kommersant on Monday.
"The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership.
"Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it's not ready to provide Iran with military assistance."
The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance.
It does not oblige Moscow to come to Tehran's defence.
At the time, though, Moscow talked it up.
In an interview with the Ria Novosti news agency, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement paid "special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence".
In the last six months Moscow has already lost one key ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad.
After the Syrian leader was deposed last December he was offered asylum in Russia. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow.
Commenting on developments in the Middle East on Tuesday, Moskovsky Komsomolets concluded: "In global politics right now, massive changes are taking place in real time which will affect life in our country, either directly or indirectly."
Vladimir Putin will be spending much of this week in St Petersburg where the city is hosting its annual International Economic Forum.
The event was once dubbed "Russia's Davos", but the label doesn't really apply now.
In recent years the chief executives of big Western companies have stayed away – especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Nonetheless, the organisers claim that this year representatives from more than 140 countries and territories will attend.
Russian authorities will almost certainly use the event to try to demonstrate that attempts to isolate Russia over the war in Ukraine have failed.
An economic forum it may be, but geopolitics is never far away.
We'll be watching closely for any comments the Kremlin leader makes about the Middle East and about Ukraine.
Less than 40 seconds.
That's how long Air India Flight 171 was airborne before it plunged into a densely populated neighbourhood in Ahmedabad in one of India's rarest aviation disasters in recent memory.
Investigators now face the grim task of sifting through the wreckage and decoding the cockpit voice and flight data recorders of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner to piece together what went catastrophically wrong in the seconds after take-off. Under international rules set by the UN aviation body ICAO, a preliminary investigation report should be released within 30 days, with the final report ideally completed within 12 months.
The London Gatwick-bound aircraft, piloted by Captain Sumeet Sabharwal and co-pilot Clive Kundar, lifted off from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad at 13:39 local time [08:09 GMT] on Thursday, with 242 people and nearly 100 tonnes of fuel on board. Within moments, a mayday call crackled from the cockpit. It would be the last transmission. This was followed by a loss of altitude and a crash engulfed in flames.
Captain Kishore Chinta, a former investigator with India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), calls this "the rarest of the rare" crashes - a controlled flight into terrain just 30 seconds after take-off. "To my knowledge, nothing quite like this has ever happened," he told the BBC.
Did both engines fail due to bird strikes or fuel contamination? Were the flaps improperly extended, reducing lift on a heavily loaded jet in extreme heat? Was there a maintenance error during engine servicing? Or did an inadvertent crew action cut off fuel to both engines?
Investigators will be probing all these possibilities - and more. Air crash investigations rely on triangulation and elimination - matching physical evidence from the wreckage with recorded aircraft performance data to build a coherent picture of what went wrong.
Every scorched cable, damaged turbine blade, airplane maintenance log, and signals and sounds from the flight data and cockpit voice recorders - the so-called "black box" - will be examined. The BBC spoke to accident experts to understand how the investigation will proceed.
Critically, the first clues on the ground may come from the wreckage of the two engines, at least three investigators said.
"You can tell from the damage whether the engines were generating power at impact - turbines fracture differently when spinning at high speed," says Peter Goelz, a former managing director of US's National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). "That's the first clue to what went wrong."
Turbines are crucial rotating components that play a key role in extracting energy to generate thrust.
"If the engines weren't producing power, investigators have a serious case on their hands - and the focus will shift sharply to the cockpit."
What happened in the cockpit will be revealed by the Boeing 787's Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorders (EAFRs) - or the "black boxes" - which, investigators say, will help tell the story. (Indian officials say the recorders have been recovered from the crash site.)
These devices capture extensive flight data and cockpit audio - from pilot radio calls to ambient cockpit sounds. Voice recordings come from individual pilot mics, radio transmissions and an area microphone that picks up background noise in the cockpit.
Data recorders track with high precision the position of gear and flap levers, thrust settings, engine performance, fuel flow and even fire handle activation.
"If the flight data recorder shows the engines were making full power, then the attention will move to the flaps and slats. If they are found to be extended as needed, then it becomes a very difficult investigation," says Mr Goelz.
Flaps and slats increase lift at lower speeds, helping an aircraft take off and land safely by allowing it to fly slower without stalling.
"If [the trail leads] to a problem in the flight management control system, that would raise serious concerns - not just for Boeing, but for the entire aviation industry."
The Boeing 787's flight management control system is a highly automated suite that manages navigation, performance and guidance. It integrates data from a number of sensors to optimise the aircraft's flight path and fuel efficiency.
With over 1,100 Boeing 787s flying worldwide since 2011, investigators must determine whether this was a systemic issue that could affect the global fleet - or a one-off failure unique to this flight, experts say. "If it points to a system problem, then the regulatory bodies have to make some tough decisions very quickly," says Mr Goelz.
So far, there is no indication of fault on anyone's part. India's civil aviation ministry said on Tuesday that a recent inspection of Air India's Boeing 787 fleet - 24 of 33 aircraft have been checked so far - "did not reveal any major safety concern," adding that the planes and maintenance systems complied with existing standards.
Boeing President and CEO Kelly Ortberg said on 12 June: "Boeing will defer to India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) for information on Air India Flight 171, in line with UN ICAO protocol."
Decoding of the data at the AAIB lab in Delhi will be led by Indian investigators, with experts from Boeing, engine-maker GE, Air India and Indian regulators. Investigators from the NTSB and UK will also be participating.
"In my experience, teams can usually determine what happened fairly quickly," Mr Goelz says. "But understanding why it happened can take much longer."
The wreckage may yield other clues. "Every part - wire, nut, bolt - will be meticulously collected," says Mr Chinta.
Typically, wreckage is moved to a nearby hangar or secure facility, laid out to identify the nose, tail and wingtips, and then pieced together. In this case, depending on what the flight data and voice recorders reveal, a full reconstruction may not be necessary, investigators say.
The importance of wreckage varies by accident, say investigators. For Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, shot down over eastern Ukraine in July 2014, it was crucial - reconstruction of the nose revealed clear shrapnel damage from a Russian-made missile.
In the wreckage, investigators will also examine fuel filters, lines, valves and residual fuel to check for contamination - something that's easy to detect or rule out, a crash investigator who preferred to remain unnamed, said. Also, he believed that the refuelling equipment used before departure "has likely been quarantined and already inspected".
That's not all. Investigators will gather maintenance and fault history records from the airline and Boeing's ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting system) which transmits data via radio or satellite to both Boeing and Air India, says Mr Chinta.
They will review all flights operated by the aircraft and the crew over recent months, along with the technical log of pilot-reported faults and corrective actions taken before release of aircraft to service.
Investigators will also examine pilot licenses, training records, simulator performance and instructor remarks - including how pilots handled scenarios like engine failures in advanced flight simulators. "I reckon Air India would have already provided these records to the investigation team," says Mr Chinta.
Investigators will review the service history of all components of the aircraft that were removed and replaced, examining reported defects for any recurring issues - or signs of problems that could have affected this flight.
"These investigations are extraordinarily complex. They take time, but there will be early indicators of what likely went wrong," says Mr Goelz.
A big reason is how far technology has come. "One of the first accidents I investigated in 1994 had a flight data recorder tracking just four parameters," he says.
"Today's recorders capture hundreds - if not thousands - every second. That alone has transformed the way we investigate crashes."
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One of Indonesia's most active volcanoes spewed a huge ash cloud more than 11 kilometres into the sky on Tuesday after officials issued the country's highest alert.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki, erupted at 17:35 local time (10:35 BST), the country's volcanology agency said, sending the vast cloud above the tourist island of Flores.
A 7km exclusion zone was in place around the crater of the 1,584m (one mile) high twin-peaked volcano. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.
The volcano erupted multiple times in November, killing nine people and forcing thousands to flee. The ash cloud also forced flight cancellations.
Geology agency head Muhammad Wafid said no one should carry out any activities within 7km of the eruption, and warned of potential lahar floods - a type of mud or debris flow of volcanic materials - if heavy rain occurs.
Residents were also urged to wear face masks to protect themselves from volcanic ash.
The National Disaster Mitigation Agency meanwhile said that at least one village had been evacuated, and ash rain was reported in several others outside the exclusion zone.
A spokesman called on residents around the volcano "to evacuate to safe locations" as tremors were still being detected, which indicated ongoing volcanic activity.
Lewotobi Laki-laki's last eruption was in May, when authorities also raised the level to the most severe.
Laki-Laki, which means "man" in Indonesian, is twinned with the calmer but taller 1,703m named Perempuan, the Indonesian word for "woman".
"My son died like an animal," said Meshack Ojwang, before breaking down in tears in front of journalists outside Central Police Station in Kenya's capital, Nairobi.
His only son Albert Ojwang had been arrested in their village of Kakoth, near the western town of Homa Bay, the day before - on Saturday 7 June 2025 - as he was having lunch with his wife Nevnina Onyango.
One of the five arresting officers told the family he was accused of insulting a police boss on social media.
"We asked the police if he was going to be safe, because we had heard stories of some people being abducted," Ms Onyango told the BBC. "They assured us, at the point of even them giving us their numbers."
When Mr Ojwang was booked into Central Police Station at around 21:30 on the Saturday night he was allowed to phone his wife.
"When we talked, he was like: 'As much as I'm stressed, don't worry that much. I'll see you soon.' I think those were his last words," she said.
But his father was concerned and decided to follow his son, making the 350km (220 miles) journey to Nairobi - carrying the family's land title deed as security in case it was needed to pay bail.
He says he arrived early on the Sunday morning at the station, and after being kept waiting for several hours, was eventually told that his son had died from self-inflicted wounds.
In disbelief and standing next to his lawyer, he described seeing his son's body: "He was bleeding from the nose and had a bruised torso and face. He was also shirtless, but this is not how I handed him over to the police on Saturday."
His candid interview in heartfelt Swahili and his refusal to stay silent touched Kenyans and the hashtag #JusticeForAlbertOjwang immediately began trending, with calls for an investigation.
Kenya has a history of police brutality, but the subsequent revelations have stunned the nation - not only the details about the death in police custody of the trained teacher turned blogger, but the ensuing allegations of police lies and subterfuge.
Parliament even called in the chief of police, the head of the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI), the internal affairs minister and the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA) for questioning.
It is hard to imagine why the 31-year-old Bachelor of Education graduate could have died such brutal circumstances.
It is clear that his father, who used to work in a quarry in south-eastern Kenya, was proud that his son from such humble beginnings had done so well academically.
"He could never hurt anyone either online or physically," David Bwakali, a former teaching colleague at Kituma Secondary School, told Kenya's Daily Nation's newspaper.
Albert Ojwang, a passionate Manchester United football fan, had taught religious studies, history and rugby at the school in the town of Mwatate in south-eastern Kenya.
He was only there for a couple of terms last year as he had not been employed on a government contract but privately through the school's management board.
This is common for new teachers - he had not long graduated from Pwani University - and such arrangements tend not to be well paid.
Mr Bwakali said his friend had recently been in touch to discuss how he hoped to get a posting as a government teacher.
And it was an exciting time for Mr Ojwang, who lived in the coastal town of Malindi, as he and his 26-year-old wife had gone back to his rural Homa Bay home for a long visit so she could be properly introduced to his family.
They had arrived in April and were, according to Luo customs, formalising their marriage.
Part of these traditions involved refurbishing his "simba" - or bachelor's pad within his father's homestead - into a home suitable for the couple and their three-year-old son George.
He was helping his parents out by doing some farm work on the family's two-acre plot of land - and he and his wife were making plans for their future with Ms Onyango's imminent graduation as a health worker.
Mr Ojwang was also trying to make money as a digital content creator - and was part of a movement of young people on social media posting about political and social issues.
This is what led to his death.
It is not clear how many followers he had on X as his account was deleted after his arrest, but fellow influencers said he had a strong online presence and often participated in social media campaigns.
He used a pseudonym - something that is not unusual with Kenyans online given recent crackdowns on youth dissent.
Activists have linked his death to a broader trend of police impunity, citing the unresolved deaths of more than 60 young people during last year's anti-tax protests.
"Ojwang's death is not an isolated incident but a chilling reminder of the institutionalised impunity and rogue behaviour within the National Police Service (NPS)," Muslims for Human Rights (MUHURI) director and renowned human rights defender, Khelef Khalifa, told local media.
But what is unusual about Albert Ojwang's case is the how swiftly and detailed the investigation has been. In addition, two days of the televised parliamentary hearings have meant that Kenyans have heard for themselves the disturbing details that led to his death.
When appearing before the parliament last Wednesday, police chief Douglas Kanja was forced to retract an earlier police statement that said that Mr Ojwang was found unconscious in his cell and rushed to hospital, where he died of head injuries sustained after he banged his own head against a wall.
The post-mortem examination and an unusually speedy investigation by the IPOA ruled out the possibility that the blogger had killed himself.
The police chief apologised and blamed the error on "misinformation" from his juniors.
He went on to say that the arrest of Mr Ojwang had stemmed from defamatory online posts targeting his deputy, Eliud Lagat - who has since stepped aside. Mr Lagat said he was doing so in the "good and conscious thought" of his responsibilities as deputy police chief and that he would provide any support he could to the investigation into the blogger's death.
According to Mr Kanja's statement to parliament, the posts on X had alleged Mr Lagat was running corrupt operations in the police by placing trusted officers in specific departments and traffic shifts to "control both revenue streams and intelligence flow".
Mr Kanja's statement detailed various posts including one that claimed Mr Lagat was under investigation by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) along with his photo and the phrase "Mafia Cop".
According to the police chief's parliamentary statement, Mr Lagat had submitted a complaint to the DCI on 4 June about the posts. The next day when the EACC confirmed there was no investigation into Mr Lagat, the police proceeded with what was regarded as a "serious case" under the Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes Act.
Mr Kanja said the Communications Authority was contacted about two accounts linked to the posts. It led to the arrest of a man on 5 June who revealed that he and four others were involved in the campaign - one being Albert Ojwang.
Two days later, the police had tracked Mr Ojwang down to his home village in western Kenya.
In her testimony, IPOA Vice Chair Anne Wanjiku gave some shocking details about the last few hours of Mr Ojwang's life.
She said two witnesses, who were in a neighbouring cell, told the IPOA that they had heard loud screams on the night he died.
IPOA investigators claim that a technician was paid $30 (£22) to disconnect the CCTV in the station.
After the parliamentary hearings ended, two police officers were arrested in connection with Mr Ojwang's death.
The IPOA, which is bringing the case, said junior officer PC James Mukhwana had told investigators the intention had been to "discipline" Mr Ojwang, not kill him.
He said the officer in charge of the station, Samson Talam, had been contacted by Mr Lagat with the order and had given the constable $15 to pay two inmates to beat up Mr Ojwang.
Mr Talam, through his lawyers, has denied the allegation and Mr Lagat has not commented.
Under Kenyan law, individuals in police custody are entitled to specific protections, including the right to legal representation and communication with advocates or support persons.
Mr Ojwang's family are still having difficulty absorbing their loss.
"I had not believed it until I saw his body in the morgue," said Ms Onyango, telling the BBC it bore signs of torture. It was like "things that we just see in movies… I've never seen such a body. It was so heart breaking," she said.
President William Ruto, who pledged to end Kenya's history of police brutality and extrajudicial deaths when he came into power in 2022, has spoken out about his shock, saying: "This tragic occurrence, at the hands of police, is heart-breaking and unacceptable."
He urged the police to co-operate fully to facilitate a "swift, transparent and credible investigation".
"I fully expect that the truth about what happened to Ojwang will be established in due course and that justice will be served," he added.
However nearly 160 cases of suspected extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances were reported across Kenya last year, according to the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC).
IPOA chairperson Ahmed Issack Hassan told MPs when he was questioned on Thursday that at least 20 people had died while held by police in the past four months alone.
"It is as if our constitution only is there like a newspaper to be read, and tomorrow we forget about it," Mr Ojwang's father told the BBC.
Grief has overwhelmed Mr Ojwang's widow: "I don't know what will happen next, because that one person that was my best friend… he's not there. So, I feel like my world is so small and it's dark."
But like her father-in-law, Ms Onyango believes the case, which has sparked protests, could be a turning point.
"I think Albert's death should be an eye-opening to us, because it has shown us some of the things that are happening in the cells that maybe we don't know.
"I really want to talk to my fellow Kenyans to stand on our feet and try and talk about this matter, so that everybody can be accountable."
Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.
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© Angelina Katsanis for The New York Times
© Todd Heisler/The New York Times
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© Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times
前两天看到一篇文章,讲我老家县里一个落马县委书记周XX的。
没想到,评论区除了骂他的,也有很多人为这个贪官摆好。
“有一说一,周XX犯错误了该批!但他对我县的发展有目共睹,城镇建设、企业发展、民生福祉等,哪一件他都用心在做!作为老百姓,怀念他!”
“周书记工作能力强,为我县的发展做出来巨大的贡献!放眼看看XX、XX等周边城市,哪个建设的有我县好?企业发展,经济发展等各方面都有生机。”
“作为在外工作的XX人,这几年回到家乡,每每听到乡邻谈论家乡政事,周XX在我县人民的心中留下的是肯干敢干实干的形象,当然自身贪腐也应受到法律的严惩。但不像现在,守着老摊子无所作为。”
难道本县的建设当真要靠周XX这样的贪官吗?
当然不是的。
评论区有人说得好:“那只是赶上了时代,那个时候大家都有钱,和气生财而已。”
大概很多地方都有这样的贪官:倒不是他们能力有多强,只是他们恰好赶上了一个快速发展的时间段,老百姓在那个时间段的切身感受是很好的,所以当这些贪官落马后,老百姓还记得他们的“好”。
或者说,老百姓真正怀念的,其实不是贪官,而是那个搞钱容易的岁月。只是,那些贪官是那个岁月的具象化,所以他们“怀念”那些贪官。
抓贪官是没错的,但需要思考一个问题:为什么在贪官较多的岁月,经济是反倒是快速发展的?这当然不是因为贪官们具有超强的能力,而是因为那个时期,地方在发展权限上较大,努力招商,相互之间开展营商环境的竞争,是这种竞争,推动了地方经济高速增长。
大部分官员的素质也就那样。比如蓬安县委书记袁菱,贪起来简单粗暴,还玩弄男同事,你说她能有多高的素质?重点还是因为他们赶上了机制。
地方竞争这方面,很多学者都做过研究。我知道的,张五常、钱颖一、陶然、周业安、张维迎等学者,都是。
还有毛寿龙教授。那时候全国舆论都在批“唯GDP论”,说老百姓的满意比GDP更重要。有次我采访毛寿龙教授,他说,地方的GDP竞争当然是有问题的,可没有比GDP竞争更好的竞争。老百姓满意怎么评?其实就体现在GDP上。老百姓满意,才会来你这儿投资、就业,你这儿GDP增长自然就好。你说其他指标,没用。
这里说一下陶然教授的研究,挺有意思。其实很多年前,舆论上都在说GDP决定升迁,但我结合经济学、历史知识以及新闻观察,认为“GDP决定升迁”只是大众的错觉。我认为大部分官员搞好GDP,主要还是为了当官有味、财政有钱花。即便是外地来的官员,也要照顾当地人的利益。如果和当地人的利益对着干,那官当得没意思的。
晚清的“疆臣权重”,其实就是如此。比如曾国藩当两江总督,同时还挂大学士衔,大学士衔其实就是宰相衔,所以大家称曾国藩为“曾相”,这已经位极人臣没法再升官了,但曾国藩还是努力发展两江GDP,为啥?他得照顾当地人的利益。即便喜欢捞钱的官员,也会照顾当地人的利益的,否则捞钱也不方便。什么情况下,封疆大臣才会不照顾当地人的利益呢?当朝廷推出不切实际的计划,要求疆臣必须执行时。
但我仅仅是根据理论和历史做出推断,毕竟没有进行过数据的研究。后来陶然教授做了这个数据研究,他的结论基本印证了我的推断。陶然教授的数据研究说,在县以上,GDP和升迁之间的关系要紧一点,在县以及县以下,GDP和升迁之间的相关性很弱。这个层级以下的官员搞GDP,主要是为了解决实际问题。其实,我的观察,到省这一级,GDP也不决定升迁。
但是无奈的是,大众舆论基于“GDP决定升迁”的错觉,而对地方竞争大肆批判,最终演变成对地方竞争的压抑。
今天老百姓对那个时期的贪官的“怀念”,或许可以提示人们,贪官固然要抓,但发展经济更加重要。现在老百姓变聪明了。如果老百姓搞钱不容易,你这个官再不贪,老百姓也不会怀念你的。能否在抓贪官的同时,恢复一下宽松的发展氛围,再次给地方努力招商搞钱的动力和空间?
那尔那茜事件还没有一点点音讯,热搜榜上又出现了#那尔那茜哥哥 数学10分#的词条。打开一看,说的是其兄科尔沁夫高考数学仅考了10分,专业课钢琴也只学了一年,就考进了双一流中央民族大学。
看到这个消息,一点也不吃惊。妹妹高考179分,哥哥是学霸的可能性微乎其微,从某种意义上来说,你不得不考虑“家族遗传”。与此同时,妹妹能够以如此低的分数进入上海戏剧学院,哥哥又怎么可能“白衣出身”,这叫路径依赖,也可以叫作“家族传承靠吾辈”。
而这种“路径依赖”,甚至都应该反过来,因为先有其兄的操作,然后才会有其妹黏贴复制——只是我们知道的太晚了而已。
要说知道太晚了,仅指那尔那茜家的个体事件而已。而这种“路径依赖”,早已有之,也是大家耳熟能详的。这也是为什么关于此事,一直不感到吃惊的原因。反过来想,为何那尔那茜事件直到现如今都没有任何一方出来说调查,更别说“情况通报”了。有没有一种可能,就是完全合规的呢?
高考179分,甭管这个分数有多低,也是在试卷上明明白白清清楚楚地考出来的,没有假吧;上海戏剧学院以这个分数录取,甭管你如何诧异,也是规定所允许的。
那尔那茜作为委培生,毕业之后不返回委培单位,的确有错。可是委培生只要缴了“违约金”并协议分手,是可以换回“自由”的,这也是规定所允许的。
同样的道理,那尔那茜的老兄,只要一切在规矩内行事,数学10分进双一流大学,又有什么不可以?
所以,无论网上再怎么闹翻天,热搜榜上一个又一个词条,有关方面也是无法出面的,因为“师出无名”啊。但是我们所有人都知道,那尔那茜与其兄之事,合理合规但是不合情。
在现实生活中,这个“情”字看起来代表着民意,是舟下的水。可这仅仅是书面及历史上的定义,现实生活中,最不值钱的,或者说最不让“他们”在乎的,恰恰也就是“情”字。
更何况,那尔那茜与其兄之事,也不是孤例。就比方说前段时间协和4+4,除了董小姐弄虚作假之外,剩下的小姐公子哥们,再查出谁不是按规定来的吗?再比方说众所周知的周公子,他进大国企,难道不是按照规定流程走得吗?如果再举例的话,还有很多,什么三代服务于一个行业的“榜样”们,哪个不是“一本正经”走得正规流程。
你要挑流程的毛病,是一点都挑不出来的。而普通人与流程之间,实际上差距说大也大说不大也不大,仅缺了一个“好爸爸”或者“好干爹”而已。
很多人都知道冯军旗的《中县干部》,一个县城161个家族,里边的哪一个人,不是按照流程一步步来的。也就是为何这份博士论文发表了15年之后,中县还是那个中县,一切都没有变化之原因。
你要说没有变化,也有失偏颇。毕竟想要进入某些门径,越来越严格,也越来越公开透明。但是,在严格与公开之下,阻挡的仅是根基不深和门路不广者。真正的手眼通天,或者根基深厚者,照样有捷径可走。这点,看看安远县长李秋平的履历就知道了;或者看看万年县的“佩奇”组合。
那尔那茜与其兄,在他们眼里,仅仅是小卡拉米而已。所以,那尔那茜之事,自然不是第一起,也不会是最后一起。
前两天看到一个视频,一个年轻的外卖员深夜里痛哭流涕地诉说:后悔没有听父母的话,没有好好学习……也许很多人会感到不屑,好好学习又能够怎么样,在大学生泛滥的今天,弄不好日后大概率依旧是送外卖。
可是我们扪心自问一下:纵观社会当中的各种考试,有哪个比高考更加公平?而高考,真是寻常子弟逆天改命的最好之机会。最起码,“他们”还是得划定分数,不能考个0蛋就进来。
以上说的,都是大白话,没有什么思想深度。可是往往是大白话,才是最残酷的——梦想,很难照进普通人的现实。所以,当别人再对你谈“梦”的时候,应该好好地想一想,你与他之间,是不是有同样的“父亲”。如果没有的话,趁早转身离去。
总之,我们无法阻挡他们一些事情的发生。但是最起码,我们还有拒绝再看再听那尔那茜与其兄所有作品的自由。
Ian Carmichael (18 June 1920 – 5 February 2010) was an English actor who had a career that spanned seventy years. Born in Kingston upon Hull, he trained at the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art, but his studies—and the early stages of his career—were curtailed by the Second World War. After initial success in revue and sketch productions, he was cast by the film producers John and Roy Boulting to star in a series of satires, starting with Private's Progress in 1956 through to I'm All Right Jack in 1959. In the mid-1960s he played Bertie Wooster for BBC Television for which he received positive reviews, including from P. G. Wodehouse, the writer who created the character of Wooster. In the early 1970s he played another upper-class literary character, Lord Peter Wimsey, the amateur but talented investigator created by Dorothy L. Sayers. Carmichael was often typecast as an affable but bumbling upper-class innocent, but he retained a disciplined approach to training and rehearsing. (Full article...)
The Garni Temple is a classical colonnaded structure in the village of Garni, in central Armenia, around 30 km (19 mi) east of Yerevan. Built in the Ionic order, it is the best-known structure and symbol of pre-Christian Armenia. It has been described as the "easternmost building of the Greco-Roman world" and the only largely preserved Hellenistic building in the former Soviet Union. It is conventionally identified as a pagan temple built by King Tiridates I in the first century AD as a temple to the sun god Mihr (Mithra). It collapsed in a 1679 earthquake, but much of its fragments remained on the site. Renewed interest in the 19th century led to excavations in the early and mid-20th century. It was reconstructed in 1969–75, using the anastylosis technique. It is one of the main tourist attractions in Armenia and the central shrine of Hetanism (Armenian neopaganism). This aerial photograph shows the Garni Temple in the winter.
Photograph credit: Yerevantsi
If male baboons were subject to the same kind of cultural commentary as humans, the phrase “deadbeat dads” might be called for, such is the primate’s relatively limited involvement in raising their young.
But a study suggests that even their little effort might go a long way, with female baboons who experience a stronger relationship with their fathers when young tending to live longer as adults.
“Among primates, humans are really unusual in how much dads contribute to raising offspring,” said Prof Elizabeth Archie, co-author of the research from the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
“Most primates’ dads really don’t contribute very much, but what the baboons are showing us is that maybe we’ve been under-appreciating dads in some species of primates.”
In the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Archie and colleagues reported how they studied wild baboons in Kenya, focusing on 216 females fathered by 102 males, as confirmed by genetic data.
The team studied the frequency of grooming interactions between fathers and daughters during the first four years of the females’ lives, as well as recording the total number of days fathers and daughters lived in the same group over that period. They then tracked how long the daughters lived as adults.
Archie said the team focused on female offspring because males often moved to other social groups as adults, making it difficult to track how long they live.
The researchers found that female baboons who, during the first four years of their life, lived in the same group as their fathers for longer and spent more time grooming with them, lived two to four years longer as adults than those who experienced weaker relationships with their dads. If only one of the two occurred, an increase of about two to three years was found, Archie added.
“A typical lifespan for a female baboon, if she reaches adulthood, [is] 18 years,” she said, noting that females tended to have offspring every 18 months or so. “So living two to three years longer would allow her time potentially to have another kid.”
That, Archie added, might provide an incentive for fathers, given males were less able to fight others for mates as they get older.
“They can no longer compete for females, but what they can do is help their daughters,” said Archie. “And if their daughters live a little bit longer, then the fathers will pass on more genes and have higher fitness because their daughters are living longer and having more kids.”
The researchers found that strong relationships between young females and adult males in general, or with males who were not their fathers, was not associated with an increase in females’ survival as adults.
Archie said it was not yet clear why the strength of early-life relationships between daughters and fathers might affect females’ survival as adults, but said a number of mechanisms could be at play.
Among them, she suggested fathers were more likely to step in should their daughters get into fights, or by sheer intimidation create a “zone of safety” around them so they were less likely to have food stolen or be injured or harassed – helping them grow into healthier adults.
But, Archie noted, there was another possibility.
“Maybe it is just that healthy daughters have good relationships with their fathers, and they also live longer,” she said.
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截至目前,放学以后Newsletter专题系列如下:“在世界游荡的女性”系列、“女性解放指南”系列、“女性浪漫,往复信笺”系列、莫不谷游荡口袋书《做一个蓄意的游荡者》系列、“莫胡说”系列”《创作者手册:从播客开始说起》,播客系列和日常更新等。
大家好,本期Newsletter由芬兰的粽子轮值。粽子是游荡者平台产品经理,也是播客“思前想后”的主播。下面这篇文章是粽子在游荡者【每周一游】栏目更新的文章。
【每周一游】是莫不谷提议在游荡者上发起的活动,从2025年5月30日游荡者新的版本发布上线之日起,游荡者平台线上游轮将每周启航,我们作为“导游区”成员(莫不谷、霸王花木兰,粽子、金钟罩)将每周轮值担任船长,在国内时间每周四更新一篇【每周一游】,分享内容包括但不限于各种花花万物和生命体验的推荐和避雷!在临近周末打工人即将解放的周四,和大家一起驶向一些海域打发时间,度过无聊,对抗虚无!欢迎各位游荡者每周四定期登船!(游荡者网址 www.youdangzhe.com)
现在将粽子在【每周一游】轮值的这篇文章同步分享到本期Newsletter,希望大家能在这趟游轮之旅找到些许对运动的好奇和喜爱,并且愿意去尝试运动,体验其对身体、心灵和大脑的美妙刺激,也通过运动获得真正的有效休息。
(拍摄于芬兰,今年春天发现了一对儿可爱的树)
芬兰在5月下旬终于迎来了春天,万物复苏。进入6月,草地和树木转眼便已郁郁葱葱,而我也像经历了冬眠一样,在冬天只想躺着的身体,在阳光充足、生命力旺盛的初春,不由自主地想要活动一下筋骨。这是我来芬兰的第2年,每年冬天确实感觉身体的活力水平很低,运动的强度和频率都会明显减小,但是一到春天,我就会像是被关了半年多终于自由的小狗,想要放开撒欢式地运动。最近一段时间,规律的运动让我的身体状态和自我感觉都越来越好,所以想在这一期游轮上给各位游荡者安利一下运动。
首先呢,我要推荐一本书:《运动改造大脑》( [美] 约翰•瑞迪(John Ratey) / 埃里克•哈格曼),这本书在我看完之后,推荐给了身边很多朋友。这本书的书名虽然只强调了运动对大脑的影响,但其中的内容还涉及运动对身体和心理的种种益处。以下是对书中提及运动效果的简单总结:
运动可以提高整个大脑的优质营养肥料
运动对焦虑和抑郁有治疗效果,有益于心理健康
运动对身体和大脑都有抗衰老的效果
另外,运动在提高学习能力方面也有神奇的效果,以下是书中原文:
“运动如何在三个层面提高学习能力:首先,它完善你的思维模式以提高警觉力、注意力和驱动力;其次,它让神经细胞准备就绪,并促使它们相互连接起来,这是连通新信息的细胞基础;最后,运动激发海马体的干细胞分化成新的神经细胞。”
我还因此找到了学习的最佳时刻:“一旦你运动完,血液几乎会立刻回流,这时如果有需要敏锐思维和复杂分析力的事情,就正是注意力集中的最佳时刻。”
今年,我还亲身实践了书中的理论。在2月收集完论文所需的数据之后,3月初我因为家里有事回国了一趟。本来打算在国内的时候开始分析论文数据,甚至背了电脑回去,结果回国两周的时候,电脑都没打开过。我意识到自己在国内是很难静下心写论文,索性彻底搁下论文,好好地玩吧,就这样我在国内放纵了一个月。4月初,我回到芬兰,开始赶论文。刚开始的一两周,我的效率很低,整个人也因此焦虑,压力水平不断上升。为了调整自己的状态和日常写论文的时间规划,我开始尝试实践《运动改造大脑》这本书里的理论。芬兰的4月还是冬天,户外很冷,此时我终于想起了小区免费的健身房,之前只在刚搬来的时候去参观过一次。从4月15号开始,我的daily rountine调整成了:
8:00左右起床,简单洗漱,喝杯牛奶
8:30左右开始运动1小时,单号日去健身房做力量训练,双号日就在家做跳舞或者骑车去超市采购
9:30运动完以后立刻开始写论文1-2个小时
11:30左右开始做午饭吃午饭,娱乐休息一会儿
14:00左右午睡半小时,醒来继续写论文1-2个小时
16:30左右开始准备晚饭吃晚饭,娱乐休息一会儿
19:00左右出门遛弯一小时左右,回来继续写论文2-3小时,期间会间隔休息一下
22:30左右洗漱,然后上床阅读半小时左右,进入睡乡
在这样的日程安排下,我用了不到两周的时间写完了论文的后半部分,交了论文初稿并且得到了导师很高的评价。由于需要修改的内容也不多,我5月初就完成了论文的最终稿。目前论文已经顺利通过审核,拿到了我很满意的分数,其中数据分析模块,更是拿到了接近满分的评分结果,而这部分内容恰好是我每天早上运动之后集中完成的。虽然我在下午和晚上也有写论文,但早上运动之后的那1-2个小时,是我思维最清晰写论文效率最高的时间段,我的大脑切身感受到了运动之后思维、分析力和注意力都被激活的状态。与此同时,我的焦虑和压力,也随着规律运动的开始慢慢得到缓解。运动真的帮我度过了一段我原以为会无比煎熬的时间,让我在赶论文的过程中,更多感受到的是充实和满满的成就感。
以上是我自身实践书中理论的体验,虽然我罗列了书里的一些理论要点,但在开始实践之前如果有时间,我还是非常推荐你先亲自去看看整本书,花5分钟看要点和花10小时看全书,所得到的认知是不一样的,认知的不同也会影响实际的行为结果。如果你对开始运动还是犹犹豫豫,那更要先去看看这本书,书里大量专业的理论以及实验案例一定会让你对运动产生兴趣的。
此外,这本书里还介绍了不同类型的运动对大脑有着不同的影响,书中指出:“有氧运动和复杂活动对我们大脑产生各自不同的有益影响。好消息是它们之间是互补的。”其中的解释是:“有氧运动能增加神经递质、建立新的血管来输送生长因子,促使新细胞的生成;通过经强化与拓展的神经网络,复杂的活动让所有这些元素都投入使用。活动越复杂,突触的联系也越复杂。”对此,我简单粗暴地理解为:有氧运动能够让大脑产生更多新细胞,而复杂的活动能让细胞的突触更多,彼此相互作用提升大脑的活力和能力。
关于有氧运动和复杂活动,书中给出了一些运动选项,像是跑步、游泳这些就是简单的有氧运动,像是跳舞、攀岩这些就是复杂的活动,而像网球之类的运动兼具两种效果,能同时锻炼心血管系统和大脑。我也简单地理解为:多尝试不同类型的运动能够更有效地锻炼和激活大脑,对身体也是如此。
接下来,我会逐个分享一下我平常会做的运动类型。
我的comfort food是番茄鸡蛋面,但如果有comfort sports,我会选跑步。
跑步在我看来,是最方便快速且容易上脚的运动。蹬上运动鞋,带上耳机,播放音乐,出门下楼,就能开始。跑步入门几乎没什么技术难度,就算是运动小白,跑步的动作也是有肌肉记忆的,剩下的只需要收紧核心和调整呼吸。当然,对跑步有更专业要求的请咨询专业人士。
跑步对场地要求也很低,只要是平坦的道路,就可以作为跑步的跑道。疫情期间,我在北京居住的小区经常被封控,每天在家远程工作加班,下班都得到晚上九十点钟,这个时间在家运动会影响楼下的邻居,也出不了小区。我就会在小区楼下围着绿化带跑步,一圈可能只有50米左右,就这样一圈一圈地跑着,每次跑个两三公里。现在回想起来,跑步是当时我没有被封控搞疯掉,且还能维持基本正常的身体和心理状态的一剂良药。现在我在芬兰,跑步更是我最爱的运动之一了,尤其是在5月-9月期间,出门到处都是穿梭于森林氧吧的跑道,我住在海边,还可以沿着海岸线边跑步边吹海风看风景,好不惬意。
另外,跑步对于我来说,不止是运动,还像是在冥想,因为跑步时我会集中注意力关注在自己的一呼一吸,耳朵里放着音乐(我跑步时听不了任何有信息含量的东西),大脑会逐渐放空,从而进入一种放松、平静的状态。
(拍摄于夏威夷,当时在直播,我给大家表演跑步)
关于跑步,我还想推荐村上春树的随笔集《当我谈跑步时,我在谈些什么?》,他在长达四分之一个世纪里,日日都坚持跑步。在这本书里,他记录了在世界各地的跑步经历,提及了很多他对跑步的体验和感受。他在书中这样推荐跑步:“跑步有好几个长处。首先是不需要伙伴或对手,也不需要特别的器具和装备,更不必特地赶赴某个特别的场所。只要有一双适合跑步的鞋,有一条马马虎虎的路,就可以在兴之所至时爱跑多久就跑多久。网球可不能这样,每次都得专程赶到网球场去,还得有一个对手。游泳虽然一个人就能游,也得找一个适宜的游泳池才行。” 我个人觉得这本书就是对跑步最好的安利了。
游泳,作为有氧运动,和跑步有异曲同工之妙。相较于跑步,游泳对场地和装备的要求确实更高,但它也有独特的好处,比如不伤膝盖,对体重基数大的人更友好,能更好地舒缓久坐的腰椎和肩颈等等。在gap的这两年里,我游泳的次数屈指可数,但不妨碍我心里还是很爱这项运动。
(拍摄于夏威夷,我在海里游泳,海水是真咸)
在我边工作边备考雅思再加上政治性抑郁最最最痛苦的那段时间,游泳池就像是我的避难所。趁着工作午休时间,去到公司楼下的健身房,一头扎进游泳池,世界仿佛一下子就安静了,我的烦躁和焦虑也瞬间消散许多。低头沉到水下,我被水温柔地包裹着,呼气,耳边只有水声和我呼出气泡的咕噜声;抬头露出水面,世界会有一瞬间的嘈杂,迅速地吸上一大口气,再次回到静谧的水下世界。游泳也带给我冥想一般的体验,甚至比跑步还要强烈,因为跑步时我还是会听音乐,但没有防水耳机的我,游泳的时候更是全身心地专注在流淌在我周围的水和我自己本身。游泳让我在水下感受过全身每一个毛孔都在微微发热的状态,因为极度专注,我的触觉才会如此敏感,才能感觉到那种微妙而神奇的变化。
我没有专业学过任何舞蹈,唯一的舞蹈基础可能是跟我妈一起跳过几次广场舞,也没有什么舞蹈天赋,但这些都不影响我喜欢跳舞。在我看来,跳舞可以是简单纯粹的一种运动,因为跟着音乐舞动起来,人就会感受到快乐。就像微笑一样,即使此刻不开心,但只要做出微笑的动作,人就能感受到幸福。
疫情期间多次被居家隔离时,我开始在家跟着视频跳 Zumba。Zumba 节奏轻快、动作不复杂,最重要的是,带跳的教练脸上总洋溢着快乐的笑容,让我也不自觉地笑起来,心情跟着变好。而且,我一旦跳熟了一个Zumba舞,就会偶尔想要拿出来再跳一跳,还能提升一下对自己跳舞的信心。下面这个链接就是我几年前居家隔离时开始跳、直到最近还在跳的一个 Zumba 舞:
【减脂瘦身操】最爱的youtube尊巴zumba精简版(剪教学休息)
在YouTube或者B站,有非常多的 Zumba 视频,也有其它类型的舞蹈,希望你能找到自己喜欢的舞,也欢迎在评论区分享。
此外,自从买了 Switch 游戏机后,我很爱的一个游戏系列就是Just Dance。我买的Just Dance 2021,好多歌曲都被我刷到了满星。这台游戏机我也带来了芬兰,虽然它大部分时间在吃灰,但最让我有动力打开它的还是Just Dance 2021。如果对这个系列的游戏感兴趣,可以先去B站找一下游戏录屏,跟着视频跳也很有乐趣,只是少了打分的体验。如果试跳以后真的很喜欢,不妨再考虑要不要购买游戏设备。
总之,跳舞时动作是否标准、能不能完全跟上节奏等等都不是跳舞的关键,跟着音乐动起来就足够了,哪怕像是群魔乱舞,但那也只是独自疯癫取悦自己而已。写到这儿,脑袋里开始自动播放陈慧琳的《不如跳舞》:
“
不如跳舞
聊天倒不如跳舞
让自己觉得舒服
是每个人的天赋
继续跳舞
谈恋爱不如跳舞
用这个方式相处
没有人觉得孤独
也没有包袱
”
一直以来,我的运动方式都是以有氧运动为主。很久以前尝试过撸铁类的训练,但喜欢不起来就放弃了。从今年4月中旬,我开始去小区的健身房。健身房里常常只有我一个人,看到各种器材摆在那儿,实在忍不住想试一试。我会先从网上搜一下对应器材的使用方法,然后再上手操作。
(图片来源网络,甩壶铃的动作以及训练到的肌肉群)
目前我在健身房常用的器材是壶铃、划船机和高位下拉机。其中,甩壶铃是我最爱的动作,因为既简单又能锻炼到全身肌肉。我状态不好又想坚持运动的时候,就会去健身房无脑甩壶铃,一组50个(因为健身房只有一个8kg的壶铃,重量对于我来说偏轻,只能通过增加次数来达到训练效果),甩个5-6组,快速而有效地完成一次全身锻炼。壶铃比哑铃更适合我上手,也非常适合居家训练。网上有很多关于壶铃训练的教学视频,大家可以自行搜索。我是在 YouTube 上找到的视频,这里也附上链接(油管视频需要科学上网)供大家参考:
划船机和高位下拉机属于固定轨道器材,看看简单的教学视频就能很快学会,这两种器械主要锻炼上半身肌群。我天生臀腿比较壮实,所以目前我抗阻训练只会单独针对上半身肌肉群,至于下半身肌肉群,就靠全身运动时顺带训练。
刚开始我自己训练时,经常是东试试西看看,间隔休息的时间也容易过长,导致训练的效率不怎么高。后来,在找教学视频的过程中,我发现了一个YouTube健身博主growingannanas,她也入驻了B站,账号是:安娜growingannanas。她有很多跟练视频,每个视频都安排了动作和间歇时间。最近我去健身房,就经常会直接选一个她的视频跟着练,省得自己想动作和数数,还能控制好节奏和休息时间。P.S. 她视频的训练强度真的很大,我跟练会减重量,中途实在跟不上也会停下偷懒,大家如果跟她练记得量力而行。
经过一个多月的抗阻训练,我从一开始非常不适应肌肉酸痛的感觉,到现在越来越喜欢这种酸痛,因为我知道它代表着肌肉正在生长。人随着年龄的增长,肌肉会不断流失,而维持足够的肌肉质量和力量,是实现高质量晚年生活的必要条件。我想,今后只要条件允许,我会坚持抗阻训练来增强肌肉,为自己的晚年生活打基础。
以上就是我目前常做或打算常做的运动,如果你也有推荐的运动类型,欢迎在评论区留言分享。
接下来,我想简单聊聊我是如何养成运动习惯的。对我来说,坚持运动最有效的方法,是将运动安排在每天或每周固定的时间段内。久而久之,到了那个时间点,就会自然而然地开始运动。我现在基本是每两天早上去一次健身房,另外一天做有氧运动。坚持一段时间后,我已经不需要刻意提醒自己,早上醒来就知道今天该进行什么锻炼。当然,这是因为我目前处于gap期,时间比较灵活。如果你平时工作繁忙,也可以在每周固定安排2~3个锻炼时段。我更推荐安排在早上:因为我以前上班时经常加班,晚上的时间难以掌控,导致运动计划很难坚持。早上锻炼还有其它好处,比如人少、不用排队抢器材,还能将运动带来的活力贯穿整个白天。如果运动安排在晚上,要注意运动结束时间与睡觉时间间隔至少1-2小时,否则大脑可能会过于兴奋而入睡困难。
最后,如果你看到这里已经跃跃欲试,准备开始运动,我想做一些提醒:
一开始运动不要用力过猛,否则可能一次性把自己练废,而且容易受伤,一定要根据自身情况循序渐进;
每次运动前,一定要充分热身,不然容易受伤;运动后也要记得拉伸,可以降低肌肉酸痛、提高肌肉和关节的柔韧性,也会降低运动伤害风险;
避免运动受伤!避免运动受伤!避免运动受伤!重要的事情说三遍。训练的重量一定要量力而行,哑铃壶铃之类的重物拿放时一定要小心,健身房内注意不要踢到脚、不要撞到头,户外跑的时候看清来往车辆不要闯红灯……
如今,很多人的休息方式是躺着刷手机,这也曾是我的休息方式。但这样的方式真的能让人获得有效休息吗?对我来说,并不能。每次刷完手机,我反而会更焦虑,也会责备自己又浪费了时间,而且大脑甚至因为刷手机变得迟钝。相比之下,虽然运动看起来是耗费体力的活动,但我却能从中获得真正的放松和恢复,身心和大脑都得到有效的“充电”。我想,运动才是我的有效休息方式。
希望大家也能从运动中获得有效休息,恢复活力,充满能量去做更多自己想做的事!
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