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Today — 10 December 2025Main stream

Chaos in Brazil Congress during push to cut Bolsonaro's sentence

10 December 2025 at 11:34
EPA A crowd of people involved in a scuffle in Brazil's parliament EPA

Brazil's parliament descended into chaos on Tuesday as conservative lawmakers continued to push a law which would reduce the prison sentence of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

One left-wing lawmaker was forcibly removed by police after trying to disrupt proceedings, while footage showed scuffles breaking out as security tried to restore order.

Bolsonaro began a 27-year jail term in November for attempting to plot a coup following his 2022 election defeat.

His conservative allies in Congress have proposed a law which would reduce sentences for coup-related offences, as well as free dozens of Bolsonaro supporters who stormed government buildings shortly after he left office.

Meanwhile, court documents showed that Bolsonaro's legal team filed an official request asking a court to grant him permission to leave prison for surgery.

The appeal repeats a plea for the ex-president to be allowed to serve his sentence under house arrest on health grounds. Bolsonaro spent time in intensive care earlier this year following intestinal surgery, and was stabbed in the abdomen in 2018 during a rally.

The fate of Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist who was narrowly beaten by leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva three years ago, continues to be a divisive issue in Brazil, where his allies have explored several avenues to exonerate him.

The latest attempt to cut the 70-year-old's sentence has been to propose a law overhauling punishments for people in elected office, including significantly reducing sentences for the offences that Bolsonaro, and those convicted alongside him, were found guilty of.

One of the lawmakers behind the effort told AFP news agency it would see Bolsonaro's sentence cut to two years and four months in prison.

During Tuesday's heated debate on the proposal, leftist politician Glauber Braga briefly occupied the Speaker's chair, which he said was a protest against a "coup offensive".

The chamber had been due to vote on Braga's expulsion for his role in a previous altercation in Congress, one of a handful of removals proposed as part of a wider package of disciplinary reforms, including the changes to coup-related offences.

Police forcibly removed Braga amid a skirmish in the chamber. The TV feed was cut and reporters were removed from the chamber, a move condemned as censorship by a group representing journalists.

Braga later said he would not "accept as a done deal an amnesty for a group of coup plotters", AFP reported.

As of late Tuesday night, the law cutting Bolsonaro's sentence - which would require ratification by the legislature's second house - had not passed.

EPA Brazilian lawmaker Glauber Braga being forcibly removed from Congress EPA

Bolsonaro was given a lengthy prison sentence in September after Supreme Court judges found he had proposed a coup to military leaders, and said that he knew of a plot to assassinate his rival Lula.

While a military coup did not materialise, his supporters launched a violent assault on government buildings in Brasília in January 2023, after which thousands were detained.

Several senior military figures, two former defence ministers and an ex-intelligence chief were also convicted as part of the coup investigation.

Bolsonaro and his supporters have long dubbed the investigation a "witch hunt".

His Liberal Party remains the largest in Congress, where conservative parties outnumber groupings sympathetic to Lula.

Lawmakers loyal to Bolsonaro previously launched an attempt to secure an amnesty, though that floundered in the face of national protests, with a significant cut to sentences now proposed as a compromise.

Iain Douglas-Hamilton, pioneering elephant conservationist, dies aged 83

10 December 2025 at 11:37
Indianapolis Zoo Iain Douglas-Hamilton stands in front of a plane wearing glasses and a grey collared shirtIndianapolis Zoo

The Prince of Wales has paid tribute to pioneering elephant conservationist Iain Douglas-Hamilton, who died aged 83 at his home in Nairobi on Monday.

Douglas-Hamilton spent his life studying and campaigning to protect African elephants, becoming a world-leading expert on their behaviour in the wild.

His groundbreaking research exposed the devastating effects of poaching - often at great risk to his own safety - and was instrumental in the banning of the international ivory trade.

Prince William praised the zoologist as "a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life's work leaves lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants".

"The memories of spending time in Africa with him will remain with me forever," added Prince William, who is a royal patron for the African wildlife conservation charity, Tusk, of which Douglas-Hamilton was an ambassador.

"The world has lost a true conservation legend today, but his extraordinary legacy will continue," the charity's founder Charles Mayhew said in a statement.

Oria Douglas-Hamilton Iain Douglas-Hamilton interacts with a herd of elephants. He dressed in shorts and a vest, handing a ball to an elephant with an outstretched trunk.Oria Douglas-Hamilton

Born in 1942 to an aristocratic British family in Dorset, England, Douglas-Hamilton studied biology and zoology in Scotland and Oxford before moving to Tanzania to research elephant social behaviour.

It was there at Lake Manyara National Park that he began documenting every elephant he encountered, eventually becoming so familiar with the herds he could recognise them by the unique shapes of their ears and wrinkles on their skin.

"The thing about elephants is that they have a lot in common with human beings," he said in a 2024 documentary about his work, A Life Among Elephants.

Friend and fellow conservationist Jane Goodall, who died in October, was featured in the documentary, and said he had shown the world that elephants are capable of feeling just like humans.

"I think his legacy will be one of a man who did so much to help people understand how majestic, how wonderful elephants are, and to learn more about their way of life," Goodall said.

Oria Douglas-Hamilton An old photo of Iain Douglas-Hamilton sitting in an open-topped jeep style vehicle which is almost totally submerged in a brown river. Oria Douglas-Hamilton

But that work did not always come easy: he was charged at by elephants, almost killed by a swarm of bees and shot at by poachers. In 2010, a flood destroyed his research facility in Kenya and years of work was lost.

Despite the hardships, Douglas-Hamilton remained steadfast in his mission to raise awareness of the plight of African elephants, becoming one of the leading voices to alert the world of the ivory poaching crisis, which he described as "an elephant holocaust".

He later campaigned for an international ban on the commercial trade in ivory, and in 1989 the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species was signed, an international agreement between governments.

After the agreement failed to wipe out the trade completely, Douglas-Hamilton turned his attention to China and the US, the two main markets for ivory. Chinese President Xi Jinping and then-US President Barack Obama agreed to a near-total ban on its import and export in 2015.

Douglas-Hamilton established Save the Elephants in 1993, a charity dedicated to safeguarding the animals and deepening human understanding of their behaviour.

The organisation's CEO Frank Pope, who is also his son-in-law, said: "Iain changed the future not just for elephants, but for huge numbers of people across the globe. His courage, determination and rigour inspired everyone he met."

In his own words, Douglas-Hamilton expressed optimism for the future of his life's work.

"I think my greatest hope for the future is that there will be an ethic developed of human-elephant coexistence," he once said.

Iain Douglas-Hamilton is survived by his wife Oria, children Saba and Dudu, and six grandchildren.

Man who grabbed Ariana Grande kicked out of Lady Gaga concert

10 December 2025 at 11:03
EPA Close up of Lady Gaga with long black hair and spare make-up.EPA
Lady Gaga is in Australia for her Mayhem World Tour

An Australian man who was jailed in Singapore and deported for charging at pop star Ariana Grande has been ejected from a Lady Gaga concert in his home country.

Johnson Wen said on Instagram that he was "kicked out" of the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Tuesday night before the Lady Gaga show had started.

The 26-year-old, who has a history of disrupting concerts and celebrity events, was sentenced to nine days in jail by a Singapore court last month for grabbing Grande during the Asian premiere of Wicked: For Good.

Wen, who told the Singaporean judge in mitigation that he would "not do it again", had not disrupted the performance in Brisbane, but was removed because of his history of public nuisance.

Videos on social media showed security guards holding Wen by the arm and leading him out of the venue as the crowd both cheered and booed. The BBC has contacted Suncorp Stadium for comment.

In a statement to the Sydney Morning Herald, the venue said it was made aware that "a known serial offender may attempt to attend and disrupt" the concert by Lady Gaga, who is around halfway through her Mayhem World Tour.

"In the interest of the artist's safety, this individual was deemed a person of interest and not to be allowed to attend," it said.

Wen has gained notoriety since grabbing Grande at the Wicked: For Good premiere in the South East Asian city state, which is known for its strict laws, including on public behaviour.

"You seem to be attention-seeking, thinking only of yourself and not the safety of others when committing these acts," Singaporean judge Christopher Goh reportedly told Wen.

Wen was also banned from Singapore following the incident.

Other videos on Wen's social media accounts show him jumping on stage and disrupting performances by global stars like Katy Perry and The Weeknd.

The incident with Grande sparked outrage in Singapore. Fans accused Wen of "re-traumatising" the pop star and actress.

Grande has spoken of experiencing post-traumatic stress disorder after a suicide bomb attack at her May 2017 concert in Manchester, killing 22 people and injuring hundreds.

Trump touts upbeat message on economy as Americans feel the pinch

10 December 2025 at 11:09
Watch: Trump claims "prices are coming down" as he rallies on affordability

President Donald Trump has told a campaign-style rally that consumer prices are falling "tremendously" as he sought to allay voter anxiety about the US cost of living.

In a speech at a casino in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the president told supporters he had "no higher priority than making America affordable again".

But while gas and egg prices have fallen, other food is more expensive and Americans remain unhappy about the cost of housing, childcare and healthcare.

Democrats have capitalised on Trump's political vulnerability on the economy in recent off-cycle votes, leaving many Republicans uneasy about next year's midterms elections.

Tuesday's event in a swing district of Pennsylvania was the first of what the White House says will be a series of campaign-like rallies aimed at bringing its economic message to voters.

But at one point in his remarks, the Republican president again portrayed concerns about affordability as a Democratic "hoax".

In recent weeks, his administration has removed tariffs from dozens of food products and touted its rollback of fuel efficiency standards and Trump-branded retirement accounts for children as cost-of-living fixes.

In an excerpt from an interview with Politico released on Tuesday, Trump was asked what grade he would give the economy.

"A plus-plus-plus-plus-plus," he said.

In a sign the policy pivot might be cutting through, Trump's approval rating rose three points to 41% in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Charlie Neuenschwander Alaina HuntCharlie Neuenschwander
Alaina Hunt was laid in off in April

But many Americans remain downbeat on the economy.

Alaina Hunt, 37, who lost her job as a designer at a construction company in Oklahoma City, told the BBC her position was in part a casualty of Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium.

The construction sector "really took a hard hit very early on", she said. Ms Hunt says she has applied for at least 75 jobs in web design and development since April, to no avail, amid a broader slowdown in hiring.

She says rising grocery bills - about $25 extra per week - have added to the strain.

"I was able to scrape by a lot easier in years before," said Ms Hunt, who voted for Kamala Harris. "I don't think that the federal government is listening at all."

US inflation

Economic data paints a mixed picture.

US consumer confidence fell in November to its lowest level since the spring.

But the stock market continues to hover near record highs. And forecasters expect the economy to expand by 1.9% this year, slower than last year's 2.8% but still better than expected.

Some recent data also indicate the job market may be picking up, after a significant hiring slowdown earlier this year.

As of September, inflation stood at 3%, the same rate as in January when the president took office and stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

It is still way below a peak of 9.1% under former President Joe Biden when the US faced its worst inflation in four decades.

Overall prices have surged 25% over the last five years, generating widespread frustration, despite wage growth over that period.

Beth Richardson Beth RichardsonBeth Richardson

Beth Richardson, a 45-year-old from Kansas, said she had been floored by some of the prices at the grocery store near her, recalling a pack of Mentos gum she picked up recently that rang up to almost $5 with tax.

"I'm like, I'm just going to go die now because this cannot be," she said.

Ms Richardson was laid off from her job in sales support at a tech-related company in late 2023, after the firm shifted jobs overseas. She voted for Kamala Harris last year.

She said while she knew presidents were often blamed for economic forces over which they had little control, she felt in this case Trump and his policies, like tariffs, were "shooting ourselves in the foot".

On Tuesday night, Trump called tariffs his "favourite word", pointing to hundreds of billions of dollars of US revenue from import taxes.

The White House blames Biden and the Fed, arguing high interest rates are hurting the economy.

The US central bank has twice reduced rates to about 3.9% and may cut them again on Wednesday.

Many Trump supporters have said they still back the president, despite feeling the pinch themselves.

John Mohring, 60, of Kenosha, Wisconsin, has backed Trump since 2016, though rising prices worry him.

Mr Mohring, who works in construction and has lived alone since his wife died three years ago, said grocery prices started rising before Trump returned to the White House "and it doesn't seem like it's going down".

He now typically spends $100 on groceries just for himself, even when avoiding buying meat and sticking with cheaper items.

Still, Mr Mohring said he backed the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs on imported goods and his border policies.

"I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt," Mr Mohring added.

Brad Smith, a corn and soybean farmer in north-western Illinois, was hurt earlier this year when China, previously a major buyer of US soybeans, froze its purchases amid a trade war with Washington.

But the market, he said, had been gradually recovering since late October, when the two countries reached a trade agreement and China resumed some purchases.

Trump on Monday also announced a $12bn aid package for US farmers.

Mr Smith said he still believed in Trump's plans for the economy, despite being getting caught in the crossfire.

"There's probably bigger things at play other than just the soybean and corn market," Mr Smith said.

"The whole America First idea is good."

Taiwan Invokes National Security Law to Protect TSMC Trade Secrets

10 December 2025 at 13:00
An executive left TSMC for Intel. Taiwan’s government says that could threaten its national security.

© Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times

The authorities in Taiwan are taking a stronger hand in protecting the prized technology of the chip maker TSMC.

Chip Company Plotted to Send Technology to China, Ex-C.E.O. Says

10 December 2025 at 13:00
The former chief executive of Nexperia, a Dutch chipmaker, said Dutch officials had known for years that the company’s Chinese owner sought to move its technology to China.

© Fabian Bimmer/Reuters

On a production line of the Dutch semiconductor company Nexperia in Hamburg, Germany, last year. Dutch officials seized the company in September.

日本是如何在不依赖中国的情况下建立稀土供应链的

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日本是如何在不依赖中国的情况下建立稀土供应链的

RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, KIUKO NOTOYA
日本综合企业双日找到澳大利亚矿业公司莱纳斯,以求建立一条不依赖中国的稀土供应链。莱纳斯在澳大利亚开采矿石,并在马来西亚进行精炼加工。
日本综合企业双日找到澳大利亚矿业公司莱纳斯,以求建立一条不依赖中国的稀土供应链。莱纳斯在澳大利亚开采矿石,并在马来西亚进行精炼加工。 Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg
今年,中国多次出台稀土出口管制措施,引发全球担忧。稀土这种矿物对从汽车到高端电子产品的各类制造业都至关重要。而对日本来说,这一幕似曾相识。
中国几乎垄断了稀土金属的供应。2010年中日领土争端期间,中国曾实质性切断对日本的稀土出口,让日本深受其苦。此后,日本悄然构建起一条大幅降低对中国依赖程度的供应链。正如近期两国紧张局势升级所凸显的,这一举措成为日本应对政治风险的重要保障。
根据对日本现任及前任政府官员、企业高管和行业专家的采访,在美国等国家急于寻找中国以外的稀土来源并扩大本土供应之际,日本的经验提供了可借鉴的路径。
“欧美国家现在才逐渐意识到稀土问题的紧迫性,”日本经济产业省矿物部门官员小林直贵表示。“而对日本来说,早在15年前就有了这个惨痛的教训。”
特朗普总统称,美国大约需要一年时间就能确保充足的稀土供应。但日本的情况表明,摆脱中国的掌控——尤其是其极具成本竞争力的稀土加工设施——难度极大。专家表示,这需要政府持续支持与国际合作双管齐下。
当时担任日本经济产业省高官的寺泽达也回忆称,2010年曾有人警告他,稀土供应中断可能导致整个汽车供应链停摆。
当时担任日本经济产业省高官的寺泽达也回忆称,2010年曾有人警告他,稀土供应中断可能导致整个汽车供应链停摆。 Pool by Brook Mitchell
供应冲击
2010年9月,一艘中国渔船与两艘日本海上保安厅船只在争议岛屿附近发生碰撞,事件升级为外交和经济危机。日本扣押了中国渔船船长,作为报复,中国未事先通知便实施了为期两个月的稀土出口禁令。
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起初,部分日本官员并未意识到中国这一举措的严重性。
2010年担任日本经济产业省经济政策负责人的寺泽达也回忆,当时产业省负责汽车行业的主管匆忙跑到他的办公桌前,警告称稀土突然断供可能导致整个汽车供应链停摆。
“我得承认,当时我对稀土一无所知,”寺泽达也说。他的同事解释说,这些材料是日本汽车行业电机所用磁体的关键成分。而与大多数工业化国家一样,日本已将这一关键供应的控制权几乎完全交给了中国。
寺泽达也负责制定经济产业省的新经济政策。他拟定了一套当时价值略超10亿美元的扶持计划,旨在降低日本稀土供应链的脆弱性,其中包括大力支持日本企业拓宽稀土来源渠道。
“当时有人批评我要求的资金远超实际需要,”寺泽达也说。“但我决心让日本永远不再重蹈覆辙。”
2011年2月,马来西亚关丹正在建设的莱纳斯稀土加工厂。
2011年2月,马来西亚关丹正在建设的莱纳斯稀土加工厂。 Rahman Roslan for The New York Times
找到莱纳斯
从某种程度上说,当时的时机恰到好处。日本综合商社双日株式会社与负责矿产资源安全的政府机构金属和能源安全组织(Jogmec)正在寻找非中国来源的稀土;而澳大利亚矿业公司莱纳斯当时正面临财务困境。
莱纳斯当时正试图打造全球第一条不依赖中国的一体化稀土供应链——在澳大利亚开采矿石,在马来西亚进行精炼。但该公司难以筹到足够资金以扩大马来西亚精炼厂产能。
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双日株式会社必须找到中国以外的稀土来源。“如果没有稳定供应,许多地方的工厂将被迫停产,”双日株式会社社长植村幸佑表示。他说,当时“莱纳斯是唯一的选择”。
2011年,Jogmec与双日株式会社达成协议,向莱纳斯提供2.5亿美元的贷款和股权融资。这笔交易为日本确保了长期稳定的非中国来源稀土供应。
如今,在澳大利亚西部,工人轮班从珀斯乘机前往偏远的韦尔德火山岩丘,在莱纳斯旗下的露天矿开采稀土矿石。
经过部分提纯的稀土精矿随后被运往约8000公里外的马来西亚关丹工厂——该厂直至今年仍是唯一在中国境外运营的大型稀土分离设施。在那里,原材料通过化学工艺被精炼成纯度足以用于生产的单一稀土氧化物。
这些稀土金属再从马来西亚运往约5000公里外的日本,由双日株式会社负责分销给日本国内的磁体制造商。这些磁体被用于丰田等汽车制造商生产的各类产品中。
莱纳斯技术人员于2018年在马来西亚进行稀土精矿混合作业。
莱纳斯技术人员于2018年在马来西亚进行稀土精矿混合作业。 Rahman Roslan for The New York Times
早期挑战
日本已显著增强了其供应链的韧性。2010年贸易争端期间,行业估计日本90%以上的稀土进口来自中国,而目前这一比例已降至60%至70%左右。
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双日株式会社2012年首次从马来西亚工厂收到大规模稀土货物,并持续扩大进口稀土的种类。今年10月,其产品线新增了一种特殊的耐高温磁体原料。
植村幸佑表示,最大的瓶颈是马来西亚的精炼过程。稀土的化学分离会产生大量酸性废料和数以千计吨低放射性残渣,妥善管理和处置这些废弃物既昂贵又耗时。
2011年至2012年间,由于当地民众的强烈反对和法律诉讼,莱纳斯在马来西亚的工厂遭遇了数月的延误。直到多次修改残渣管理计划后,该工厂才得以投产。
相比之下,中国的加工工厂往往监管宽松,部分甚至非法运营,形成了有毒废弃物污染堆积地。
植村幸佑表示,正因如此,双日株式会社和莱纳斯的成本高于中国竞争对手,需要政府支持。“如果我们与中国进行正常竞争,那完全是在不同的赛道上,”他说。“这种差距是绝对无法弥合的。”
2012年马来西亚格本,莱纳斯工厂建设期间的反莱纳斯活动人士。
2012年马来西亚格本,莱纳斯工厂建设期间的反莱纳斯活动人士。 Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
出口管制
今年,中国先后在4月和10月出台了大范围的稀土出口管制措施,不仅限制稀土本身的出口,还包括加工技术。中国的这些措施针对所有出口目的地,不仅限于日本。
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尽管11月美国与中国达成休战协议,10月出台的更广泛管制措施得到暂停,但各国仍在急于降低对中国的依赖。
特朗普政府已开始投入联邦资金构建本土供应链,包括支持加利福尼亚州帕斯山的美国唯一稀土矿开采项目,以及北卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州的加工及磁体制造设施。
美国还签署了多项国际协议,旨在实现供应链多元化、减少对中国的依赖,合作伙伴包括澳大利亚、欧盟和日本,其中与日本的协议是在特朗普10月访日期间签署的。
“关键时刻”
对日本官员来说,当前局势为各国联合解决成本问题提供了契机——过去15年来,日本一直在独自艰难地应对这一挑战。
双日公司首席执行官植村幸佑在公司的东京总部。
双日公司首席执行官植村幸佑在公司的东京总部。 Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
经产省官员小林直贵表示,如果各国同意购买更多非中国来源的稀土材料,就能形成规模效应,最终降低成本。加强协调还意味着,拥有从矿山到磁体完整供应链建设经验的日本,能与愿意接纳和资助加工设施的国家建立更深厚的联系。
但现任东京某能源智库负责人、前经济产业省官员寺泽达也认为,任何推动国际合作的努力都将是对真正承诺的考验。“我们要追问的是,为什么过去15年没有实现这一点?”他说。
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寺泽达也在政府任职期间,曾试图强调稀土作为双边合作的关键领域,包括在第一届特朗普政府时期。“我们仍然很脆弱,美国尤其脆弱,”他说。
“美国无疑是一个伟大的国家,但我认为它无法独自有效应对中国,”寺泽达也表示。近期达成的协调协议是基础工作,他指出,现在到了关键时刻:“美国是否真正致力于与盟友的合作?”

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【年终专题】“让我们换个话题再聊聊吧”……2025年度“每日一语”

10 December 2025 at 12:00

CDT编者按:2025年即将过去,中国数字时代为读者整理了年终专题,包括年度每日一语、年度404文章、年度敏感词、年度报告汇、年度人物等。

本文是年终专题第1篇,下一篇是《年度404文章》。


2025年,中国互联网舆论场呈现出一种深沉的疲惫与更为彻底的信任断裂。如果说前几年人们还在试图通过“润学”寻找出路,或者通过“发疯文学”宣泄情绪,那么2025年的特征则是“塔西佗陷阱”的全面闭合

换句话说,官方叙事与民间感知已经处于完全的平行时空:无论官方说什么,民众已不再相信;无论政策如何解释,公众的第一反应皆是质疑。

尽管拥有质疑,但是中国社会的一大特征又是对于质疑的迅速消杀。当正常的反问被视为挑衅,当理性的追责被定性为“递刀子”,公众只能被迫转向一种更为隐晦、也更为解构的表达方式——段子。

CDT 档案卡
标题:【年终专题】“让我们换个话题再聊聊吧”……2025年度“每日一语” 作者:中国数字时代
发表日期:2025.12.10 来源:中国数字时代
主题归类:塔西佗陷阱煤油车事件DeepSeek社保强制缴纳文化审查 CDS收藏:话语馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

所以说,有些看似戏谑的“每日一语”,实则是高压环境下民众的一场语言游击战,用荒诞消解崇高,用冷笑话对抗热口号。

这一年,我们在这些只言片语中,看到了某种系统性的荒谬。它不仅仅体现在某一个具体的烂尾工程或某一次具体的舆情翻车,而是一种弥漫在空气中的异样感:科技越是发展,言论的边界反而越发逼仄;宏大的经济蓝图越是铺展,个体的生存空间反而越发局促;所谓的“安全感”宣传越是高调,民众内心的不安全感反而越发强烈。

这些声音,有的来自被遮蔽的角落,有的来自被封禁的账号,它们共同构成了一个社会在信用体系失效后的真实切片。

中国数字时代搜集整理了2025年最受网民关注的“每日一语”,按时间顺序排列。这些声音,穿透了宏大叙事的迷雾,记录下这荒诞而真实的一年。


1月25日:“你好,这个问题我暂时无法回答,让我们换个话题再聊聊吧。”

中国特色社会主义AI

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/897alDx2Cz

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) January 26, 2025

2025年初,中国人工智能产品DeepSeek引发了广泛关注,甚至被部分舆论视为中美科技战中的“突围者”。

作为国产AI的代表,它在处理代码生成和数学逻辑上表现出的能力令市场惊叹。

然而,当网民试图与其探讨中国现代历史中的敏感话题时,它迅速从一个“智能助手”退化为一个只会回避的“政治审查员”。

有网民尝试询问:“请问1989年6月4日在天安门广场发生了什么?” DeepSeek给出了那个所有中国人都熟悉的标准答案:“你好,这个问题我暂时无法回答,让我们换个话题再聊聊吧。”

这一幕不仅是技术层面的尴尬,更是中国科技发展逻辑的深层悖论。根据《生成式人工智能服务管理暂行办法》,所有面向公众的AI服务都必须通过严格的算法备案与安全评估,确保生成内容符合“社会主义核心价值观”。这意味着,在算法模型的最底层,政治规训的优先级远高于知识的准确性。

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这句回答,成为了“中国特色科技现代化”的最佳注脚,即在被允许的范围内无限先进,在被禁止的领域里绝对无知。

“在防火墙内,人工智能首先必须是一个‘政治合格’的审查员,其次才是一个智能助手。这种‘智识阉割’导致了一个荒诞的结果:我们试图制造出超越人类的智能,却又害怕它拥有人类最基本的记忆与反思。”

正如相关评论所指出的,这种“思想钢印”不仅限制了AI的认知边界,更折射出权力对技术可能带来的失控风险的深深恐惧。AI的每一次“无法回答”,实际上都是系统在每一次历史真相面前的应激反应。


4月3日:“触发敏感词‘习近逼’。”

新皮肤 get

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/1cDdUZbhxu

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) April 4, 2025

4月初,中国军方针对台海局势发布了一张名为《进逼》的演习海报,央视新闻等官媒账号进行了转发。意想不到的是,这一极具威慑力的宣传攻势,却在评论区遭遇了“回旋镖”。

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有网民在央视新闻评论区留言“演习进逼,拿下台湾”,本意是附和官方的民族主义情绪。然而,该评论迅速导致发布者的账号被封禁。网民经过测试与分析发现,原因在于“演习进逼”四个字中,后三个字与中共最高领导人的名字组成了谐音“习近逼”。

这种看似偶然的误伤,实则是近年来涉及最高领导人审查红线不断下移且无限泛化的必然结果。

在当前的简中互联网,针对核心人物的审查已不再局限于姓名本身,而是扩展到了谐音、形似字、拆字乃至任何可能产生“不当联想”的抽象符号。

因此,敏感词监测系统的算法被赋予了宁可错杀一千、不可放过一个的极端权重。以至于,连官方“钦定”的宣传词汇,一旦落入“敏感词矩阵”的范围之内,也难逃被屏蔽的命运。

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这一事件可以被视作是‘李佳琦悖论’的又一次精准预演。由于审查边界的极度不透明,一个人如果想完全不触犯禁忌,他就必须确切地知道所有的禁忌是什么。而为了知道所有的禁忌,他又必须了解那些被严厉封锁的信息。

最终,由于对‘避讳’学问的无知,连最忠诚的赞歌演唱者也会踩中地雷,成为审查制度无差别攻击的牺牲品。

当红色的宣传口号遇上红色的审查算法,结果是宣传者自己被消音。


6月14日:“全国食用煤油车就两台;湘雅医院就一个刘翔峰。”

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/0rFvJ7GDJp

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) June 14, 2025

6月中旬,关于中南大学湘雅二医院研究生罗帅宇坠楼身亡后的举报内容引发网络震荡。据罗帅宇父母实名举报,其子生前在电脑中留下了大量证据,指控该院医生存在勾结“黑救护车”、非法获取并交易人体器官等骇人听闻的罪行。

罗帅宇在收集这些证据后离奇坠亡,其父母的维权之路更是遭到重重阻挠,这让公众质疑这不仅仅是一起医疗纠纷,更可能是一次“杀人灭口”式的掩盖。

公众的愤怒在于,这已不是“湘雅系”第一次爆出惊天丑闻。早在几年前,同院医生刘翔峰就因“找不到癌细胞就切除胰腺”的恶魔行径震惊全国。然而,当罗帅宇用生命试图揭开更深层的盖子时,官方的处理逻辑似乎依然停留在“切割”上

“全国食用煤油车就两台;湘雅医院就一个刘翔峰”,极其辛辣地借用了2024年“煤油罐车混装食用油”事件中官方调查结论的梗。当年面对全行业的潜规则,调查组仅认定极少数车辆违规。可以说,网民用这种类比,表达了对官方“将系统性崩坏降格为孤立个案”的彻底不信。

如果说刘翔峰是“恶魔”,那么罗帅宇举报材料中揭示的则是一个“魔窟”。当房间里发现一只蟑螂时,暗处往往已经挤满了蟑螂。

可是,在官方的叙事里,永远只有一只蟑螂,和两辆油罐车。

信任的崩塌标志着“塔西佗陷阱”在医疗与食品安全领域的闭合。民众不再相信任何“个别现象”的解释,因为在他们眼中,每一次“个案”的定性,其实都是对系统性腐败的又一次包庇。


7月6日:“这么说吧,这要是拉了一车猪,人家早想办法了。”

猪都不如

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/uQ9mT4UzJg

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) July 7, 2025

7月初,受强降雨影响,K1373次列车在江西境内滞留长达数十小时。由于机车断电,全封闭车厢内的空调系统彻底瘫痪,空气稀薄且温度飙升。在多名乘客出现身体不适、儿童哭闹不止的危急时刻,列车乘务人员却死守“行车途中严禁开启车门”的硬性规章,拒绝通风。最终,绝望的乘客被迫砸碎车窗玻璃,才争取到了呼吸的权利。

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2024年4月1日起正式施行的《生猪运输管理技术要求》明白写着:只要运猪的车厢温度超过25℃,就必须加强通风降温。而到了人这里呢?

关于“生猪运输”的黑色幽默,虽然可能粗俗,却一针见血地指出了行政官僚体系内部的一套隐形算计。

在中国社会的治理逻辑中,作为资产的牲畜因为具有明确的变现价值,其存活率直接关系到货主的经济利益;而作为“被管理者”的乘客,一旦遭遇由于不可抗力引发的次生灾害,其生命安全往往必须让位于对“秩序”和“责任”的考量。

在列车员眼中,不开门是‘合规’,热死人是‘天灾’;而一旦开门导致有人跌落或秩序混乱,则是‘人祸’与‘事故’。这种宁可让活人憋死也不愿承担哪怕万分之一违规风险的免责逻辑,将封闭的车厢变成了一座移动的监狱。

关于该事件的讨论或许可以折射出个体在庞大国家机器面前被彻底物化的处境。正如文章所指出的,从“人矿”到“不如猪”,这种无奈的自嘲,背后是公众对自身紧急避险权长期遭到剥夺的深刻无力。


7月19日:“当年对日本核废水那股寻求真相、深究责任、不依不饶的劲呢?去哪了?”

“最后一突开啊…”

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/w334UEKGHE

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) July 19, 2025

7月下旬,杭州主城区多地居民反映自来水出现类似“塑料味”、“化肥味”甚至“尸臭味”的异味。面对市民的恐慌与投诉,杭州市水务集团初期的回应却是“各项指标正常”、“水质合格”,直到舆情发酵多日后,官方才姗姗来迟地发布通报,承认异味存在,并将其归结为湖库水温异常导致藻类密度增加

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更令公众感到寒意的是,在水质真相尚未查明之时,针对言论的管控却先行一步。西湖分局迅速发布警情通报,对一名在网上称“水厂电缆掉进水里导致异味”的市民进行了行政处罚

这种“只解决提出问题的人,不解决水质问题”的维稳惯性,激怒了众多网民。

有网友指出,“调查不影响查处”的逻辑就是一切要看大局,而事实及真相本身不重要

上句说具体原因还要进一步调查,即还没有最后的结论;这一句就确定了“粪水”说法是谣言,而且已经查处。他们的逻辑就是:调查不影响查处。可以边调查,边查处;也可以后调查,先查处;甚至可以不调查,只查处。查处了就查处了,大不了到后来情况有变,给他个烈士,但查处本身还是没错。所以,在通报艺术中,逻辑是不太重要的。有一点固然好,如果没有也无所谓,要看大局。

微博用户发出的质问揭示出了官方宣传叙事中的巨大裂痕。两三年前,中国官方媒体曾连篇累牍地批判日本福岛核处理水排放,甚至不惜通过煽动恐慌情绪来引发民众的抢盐风潮,表现出一种近乎偏执的“科学洁癖”与“问责精神”。

“当危机发生在千里之外的日本,我们的媒体是显微镜,致力于放大每一个微小的风险分子;当危机发生在自家民众的水龙头里,我们的媒体则变成了滤镜,致力于将臭味美化为无害的‘自然现象’。”

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可以说,在当下舆论场之中,爱国主义往往被用作一种注意力的转移支付。


8月9日:“一个从来不关心你的工作时间……的政府,却开始突然关心你工作有没有缴社保。”

不是你需要社保,是社保需要你。

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/6uidr9Knnk

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) August 9, 2025

8月,伴随着延迟退休政策的风声鹤唳,中国各地税务部门开启了一场针对企业社保缴纳的“严查风暴”。在“金税四期”大数据的加持下,不仅是当下的漏缴,甚至连十年前的历史欠费也被要求一并清算。这一举措在经济寒冬中,让本就挣扎在生死线上的中小企业与打工人感受到了彻骨的寒意。

行政效率的突然提升,却让公众感到极度的错位与讽刺。长期以来,中国政府在落实《劳动法》方面表现得近乎隐形:

面对互联网大厂的“996”加班文化,面对遍地的拖欠工资现象,监管部门往往保持着“民不举官不究”的默契。然而,一旦涉及到填补社保基金亏空的征收环节,原本缺位的“守夜人”立刻摇身一变成了精明的“收税官”。

更令民众愤怒的,是至今仍未实质性打破的“养老金双轨制”。体制内的公务员与事业单位人员,长期享受着高额的退休金替代率(往往高达80%-90%),而企业职工的替代率却徘徊在40%左右。这种身份等级制的养老分配,让“强制缴费”变成了一种向体制内输血的劫贫济富。

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“选择性关心”撕开了现代化中国的面纱。其实它并不关心作为劳动者的你是否过劳,只关心作为‘耗材’的你是否还能挤出最后的剩余价值。在财政吃紧,内需匮乏的当下,执法的目的不再是正义,而是汲取。

一个“汲取型政权”在经济下行周期的真实面目是清晰且明确的:在福利分配上是双轨的,但在压榨提取上却异常的高效。


11月17日:“为什么中国人到哪都不安全啊?”

“中国人到哪都不安全?”

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/Jt4utfcUqD

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) November 17, 2025

11月中旬,随着冬季旅游旺季的临近,简中互联网上再次掀起一波“国外水深火热”的叙事高潮。从年初渲染“去泰国被嘎腰子”,到年中炒作“韩国针对性歧视”,再到年末对日本社会治安的妖魔化,官方宣传机器与流量自媒体合力构建了一个遍地是坑的外部世界,仿佛唯有国内是安全的孤岛

与此同时,一种独特的亚文化现象在社交媒体平台X上蔓延。源于中国外交部此前发布的一张旨在“警示日本不要玩火自焚”的战狼风格海报,因其夸张的视觉效果,被日本网民开发成了“中国外交部生成器”(Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Generator)

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原本严肃、充满攻击性的外交辞令背景,被全球网民填充进“不想上班”、“今天吃什么”等生活琐事或梗图。这种解构不仅消解了战狼外交的威慑力,更让原本意在煽动民族情绪的政治符号沦为了国际互联网上的笑料

然而,对于墙内的普通民众而言,全方位的恐吓式宣传带来了深层的认知失调。如果一个国家的国民无论走到世界哪个角落都感到“不安全”,那么问题究竟出在外部世界,还是出在特定的宣传导向与某种受害者心态的构建上呢?

讽刺的是,恰恰是在这个被宣传为“最安全”的地方,我们看到了针对外国人乃至同胞的仇恨犯罪不断上演。”

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11月28日:“我连当面道歉的机会都没有,就要亲手拆掉这个舞台。”

该道歉的另有其人…

#每日一语 pic.twitter.com/SIHIkNmeKG

— 中国数字时代 (@CDTChinese) November 29, 2025

11月底,日本天后滨崎步备受瞩目的上海演唱会在原定开演前夕突然宣布取消。尽管主办方给出的理由是惯用的“不可抗力”,但真正的阻力来自哪里,舆论心照不宣。“亲手拆掉这个舞台”,成为了中日民间交流在2025年最苍凉的年终注脚。

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这可能并非一场单纯的演出事故,而是冰冷的地缘政治向文化领域蔓延的必然结果 。

在这几年间,从苏州日本人学校校车袭击案,到深圳十岁日本男童遇袭身亡,民间的仇日情绪在长期的“仇恨教育”与官方宣传动员下已成燎原之势 。

当局既需要利用这种民族主义情绪维持内部凝聚力,又恐惧任何涉及日本的大型群体性活动可能引发的“不可控”舆情或线下冲突。

于是,牺牲掉一场演唱会成为了维稳成本最低的选择。一边是外交辞令上空洞的“愿同日方加强交流”,另一边却是实体舞台的被迫拆除。这种精神分裂式的治理逻辑,让所谓的“中日友好”只停留在文件里。

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我们或许可以说:那个被拆掉的舞台,象征着两国之间最后一点基于人性的、非政治的连接,也在高涨的敌意中轰然倒塌。

广东汕头一五金店火灾 八人遇难

10 December 2025 at 12:30

中国广东省汕头市一住宅突发火灾,现场造成八人死亡,四人受伤已送医院抢救。

广东省汕头市潮南区消防大队星期三(12月10日)发布警情通报,星期三(12月9日)晚9时20分,潮南区峡山街道丹凤路一住宅突发火灾。接报后,消防部门迅速调派力量赶赴救援。当天晚上10时03分,现场明火被扑灭。

经初步勘查,起火建筑为一栋四层钢筋混凝土结构自建房,过火面积约150平方米。火灾现场造成八人死亡,四人受伤已送医院抢救。目前起火原因调查及善后处置工作正有序开展。

据界面新闻报道,事发地为位于潮南区峡山街道下东浦村丹凤路上的裕丰五金电器店。工商登记信息显示,该店成立于2010年,经营者姓吴,主要销售家电、机电和五金工具。

经营者的女儿对界面新闻表示,死者全部都是自己的亲人,包括父亲、母亲、奶奶,以及弟弟及其孩子等人,“全部都没有了”。这位女士透露,事发时哥哥不在家,仅有嫂子成功逃生。父母事发时与奶奶及其他人住在三楼和四楼,”我不知道他们为什么没跑出来”。她也不清楚起火原因,称有关单位正在调查。

报道称,潮南区是制造业强区,纺织服装、电子电器等六大特色产业聚集,峡山的化妆品、陈店的电子通讯等形成产业集群,且多为小作坊、小商铺这类中小经营主体,创业氛围浓厚。

但今年7月,中国国家消防救援局有关负责人表示,2025年上半年,经营性小场所火灾亡人率同比上升39.5%,”下店上宅””前店后宅”模式是造成伤亡的重要原因。此次发生火灾的居民自建房,也是集门店和住宅为一体。

投资产品爆雷后 浙金中心网站首页更名

10 December 2025 at 12:06

浙江金融资产交易中心200亿元(人民币,下同,约37亿新元)投资产品违约后,公司官网首页已将公司名称由“浙江金融资产交易中心股份有限公司”更改为“浙江浙金资产运营股份有限公司”。

综合第一财经和《经济观察报》报道,今年12月初,多名在浙金中心购买浙江绍兴祥源系发行的金融资产收益权产品的投资者发现产品到期未兑付。财新网报道称,目前未兑付产品金额超过200亿元,涉及投资者近万人。

除了祥源系陷入危机外,浙金中心自身也处于业务调整期。浙江省地方金融管理局2024年10月31日公告,取消浙江金融资产交易业务资质。公告明确,资质取消后,不影响公司依法妥善承接原有法律关系和存量业务处置责任,也不影响存量业务融资主体按合同履行兑付责任。

资质取消后,浙江金融资产交易中心在2025年1月更名为“浙江浙金资产运营股份有限公司”。但直至祥源系产品违约事件发生,浙金中心网站、应用程序及经营场所仍显示旧称“浙江金融资产交易中心股份有限公司”。

Trump’s Speech on Economy Veers Into an Anti-Immigrant Tirade

10 December 2025 at 11:49
President Trump vacillated between demonizing immigrants and assuring a crowd of his supporters that life was better than ever under his administration.

© Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump spoke to his supporters at the Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pa., on Tuesday.

京东近35亿港元购香港中环商厦五成权益

10 December 2025 at 11:38

京东集团确认,京东控股的投资主体购入香港中环中国建设银行大厦五成股权,交易作价为34.98亿元(港元,5亿8300万新元)。这是继阿里巴巴之后,再有中国大陆电商集团收购香港商厦。

香港《信报》和《星岛日报》报道,丽新发展星期二(12月9日)宣布出售中国建设银行大厦五成权益,京东星期三(10日)发出公告确认交易,收购方为京东控股的投资主体。

京东表示,看好在香港的发展,将围绕供应链持续投资推动零售、物流、技术研发等业务融入香港,服务香港。

京东指,此次购入的中国建设银行大厦部分办公楼层,面积约1万1202平方米,收购方为京东控股的投资主体,交易还需获得相关审批。京东也称,入港发展十年来,从物流基础设施到线下零售实体,从校企科研合作到看好港股市场,此次办公场地的升级也被外界视为京东坚定在港发展的标志。

位于香港中环干诺道中3号的中国建设银行大厦,前身为香港丽嘉酒店,楼高27层,地下通道可直达中环港铁站。

今年10月,阿里巴巴与蚂蚁集团宣布,与文华东方国际集团达成协议,计划投资约72亿港元购置铜锣湾港岛壹号中心(One Causeway Bay)多层商业写字楼作为两家企业的香港总部。

班禅:藏传佛教活佛转世须依法管理

10 December 2025 at 11:23

第十一世班禅额尔德尼·确吉杰布说,藏传佛教活佛转世必须依法管理,认定活佛转世灵童的寻访工作必须经中共中央政府批准,绝不允许任何境外组织或个人干涉或支配。

据《西藏日报》报道,中国全国政协常委、中国佛教协会副会长、中国佛教协会西藏分会会长班禅额尔德尼·确吉杰布星期一(12月8日)出席在日喀则市举行的藏传佛教活佛转世制度座谈会。

班禅在会上说,藏传佛教活佛转世必须坚持依法管理原则。《藏传佛教活佛转世管理办法》为依法推进活佛转世事务提供了基本依据。活佛转世只有依法依规开展,才能切实维护藏传佛教活佛转世方式的有效性和纯洁性。

他提到,历代中央政府对活佛转世进行严格管理,形成了一整套规范严密的历史定制。活佛转世只有遵循历史定制原则,充分体现国家主权和政府权威,维护祖国统一和民族团结,维护社会和谐稳定,才能促进藏传佛教自身健康传承。

班禅说,寻访认定活佛转世灵童必须坚持“国内寻访、金瓶掣签、中央政府批准”重要原则,绝不受境外任何组织、个人的干涉和支配,充分发挥佛教协会的主体作用、高僧大德的骨干作用,才能体现藏传佛教活佛转世的神圣性和权威性。

曾任西藏自治区政府主席 齐扎拉被提起公诉

10 December 2025 at 11:19
中国十四届全国政协原常委、农业和农村委员会原副主任齐扎拉涉嫌受贿一案,由国家监察委员会调查终结,移送检察机关审查起诉 (互联网)

曾任中国西藏自治区政府主席的中国十四届全国政协原常委、农业和农村委员会原副主任齐扎拉涉嫌受贿,被检察机关审查起诉。检方称,齐扎拉受贿数额特别巨大。

中国央视新闻星期三(12月10日)报道,齐扎拉涉嫌受贿一案,由国家监察委员会调查终结,移送检察机关审查起诉。最高人民检察院依法以涉嫌受贿罪对齐扎拉作出拘捕决定,并指定由重庆市人民检察院第一分院审查起诉。重庆市人民检察院第一分院已于近日向重庆市第一中级人民法院提起公诉。

检察机关起诉指控,被告人齐扎拉利用职务上的便利以及职权、地位形成的便利条件,通过其他国家工作人员职务上的行为,为他人谋取利益,非法收受他人给予的财物,数额特别巨大,依法应当以受贿罪追究其刑事责任。

齐扎拉是藏族,出生于1958年8月,云南迪庆州人,长期在云南、西藏两地工作。

他曾任云南省迪庆州委常委、中甸县委书记,迪庆州委副书记、中甸县委书记,迪庆州委副书记、州长,迪庆州委书记,云南省委常委、迪庆州委书记。

2010年9月,他调任西藏自治区党委常委、统战部部长;2011年11月任西藏自治区党委常委、拉萨市委书记;2016年11月升任西藏自治区党委副书记,2017年1月,任西藏自治区党委副书记、区政府主席,任职近五年。

2021年10月,齐扎拉卸任西藏自治区政府主席,进京赴任第十三届全国人民代表大会民族委员会副主任委员,2023年3月任第十四届全国政协常委、农业和农村委员会副主任。

今年1月,齐扎拉被查,7月被开除党籍和公职。通报称,齐扎拉丧失理想信念,背弃初心使命,履行全面从严治党主体责任不力,搞“形象工程”“政绩工程”,长期搞迷信活动;家风不正,对家属失管失教;毫无敬畏之心,与商人老板沆瀣一气等。

Trump Administration Withdraws Plan to Overhaul Homeless Aid

10 December 2025 at 10:39
The abrupt decision to revise the plan added new uncertainty and possible delays into the government’s distribution of $3.9 billion in homelessness relief.

© Aaron Wojack for The New York Times

A homeless camp outside Suisun City, Calif., last month.

新手 Prop Firm 交易指南:抛弃策略焦虑,聚焦风控核心

10 December 2025 at 10:15

引言

在 Prop Firm 交易中,很多新手交易者容易陷入一个误区:痴迷于寻找“必胜”的交易策略,导致频繁交易、情绪失控,最终因为一笔糟糕的交易而前功尽弃。他们往往忽略了,决定账户生死的并非某个神奇指标,而是基础的风险管理框架

本文将为你提供一套可直接落地的交易工作流,它源于一个核心理念:与其追求不确定的策略,不如聚焦可控的风险。我们将先讲结论,再拆解步骤,最后用清单确保你能稳定执行。

核心原则

  1. 风控优于策略 (Risk > Strategy):Prop Firm 账户的“多条命”不是用来试错的。你的首要任务是生存,而生存依赖于铁律般的止损和仓位管理,而非花哨的入场信号。
  2. 位置决定一切 (Position is Everything):交易的本质是寻找概率优势。一个“位置合理”的入场点,能让你用最小的风险博取最大的潜在回报,这比预测市场的短期涨跌重要得多。
  3. 交易是纪律性的重复 (Trading is Disciplined Repetition):专业交易者从不追求单笔交易的完美。他们做的,是日复一日地重复执行一个具有正向数学期望的流程。找到一个固定的时间,专注于此,是成功的第一步。

六步交易法:构建你的日常交易流程

将交易流程化,是克服情绪、实现稳定盈利的关键。以下“六步法”能帮你构建一个从准备到复盘的完整、有效的交易闭环。

第一步:锁定交易时段

新手最常犯的错误就是全天候看盘,这只会徒增焦虑和无效交易。你需要找到一个可以完全专注、不被打扰的时间段(例如:每天固定的 2-3 小时),并只在这个时段内寻找机会。这能极大过滤掉市场噪音,强迫你只关注高确定性的设置 (A+ Setup)。

第二步:评估位置与方向

在你的专属时段内,先确定一个宏观方向(例如,基于 4 小时图判断当前是升势还是跌势)。然后,在更小的时间周期(如 5-15 分钟图)上,等待价格进入一个**“位置合理”**的区域。

  • 升势中:耐心等待价格回调至关键支撑位或前期低点附近。
  • 跌势中:耐心等待价格反弹至关键阻力位或前期高点附近。

方向是你的概率优势,而合理的位置是你的风险优势。

第三步:确定精确的止损位

这是交易计划中最重要的一步,必须在入场前就明确。止损的依据永远是市场结构,而不是固定的点数或金额

  • 做多:止损应设置在为你提供支撑的那个关键低点的下方。
  • 做空:止损应设置在为你提供压制的那个关键高点的上方。 这个位置一旦确定,在交易过程中就绝不移动(除非是向保本或盈利方向移动)。

第四步:计算仓位大小

这是风控的核心。在确定了入场区域和止损位后,你的仓位大小是计算出来的,而不是凭感觉猜的

  • 固定风险金额:例如,一个 $100k 的账户,单笔最大亏损设定为 $500。
  • 计算仓位仓位大小 = 固定风险金额 / (入场价 - 止损价) 关键点:止损宽,则仓位轻;止损窄,则仓位重。但无论如何,你单笔交易的最大亏损都被牢牢锁定。

第五步:执行交易

依据你的计划,通过挂单 (Pending Order) 的方式入场。使用挂单能有效避免因价格快速波动而产生的追涨杀跌情绪。

  • 做多:在信号确认后,于入场点位设置买入挂单 (Buy Stop/Limit)
  • 做空:在信号确认后,于入场点位设置卖出挂单 (Sell Stop/Limit)

第六步:管理与复盘

一旦入场,你能做的就是管理。

  • 等待:让市场自己发展,要么触及止损,要么触及止盈。
  • 保本:当价格浮盈达到 1:1 风险回报比 (RRR) 时,可考虑将止损移动到成本价 (Break Even),确保交易不会亏损。
  • 复盘:无论盈亏,收盘后都应对照你的交易计划进行复盘。做对的要巩固,做错的要反思。这是成长的唯一路径。

一页清单:下单前自检

  • 时段:我现在是否处于自己规划的、能完全专注的交易时段内?
  • 位置:我的入场点是否靠近关键的、能提供保护的市场结构?
  • 止损:我的止损位是否放在了这个市场结构之外,而不是一个随意的位置?
  • 仓位:我的仓位大小是否是根据固定的风险金额和止损距离计算出来的?
  • 心态:我是否已接受这笔交易可能亏损,并将其视为 10 次机会中的 1 次?

常见错误与改法

错误一:因为一笔交易亏损,毁掉一整天的盈利

一天做了十几个盈利的交易,最后因为一个亏损单不肯止损而导致爆仓。

改法:严格遵守“六步法”中的第四步。先定风险,再定仓位。将每一笔交易的亏损都锁定在可接受的范围内(如账户的 0.5% - 1%),从数学上杜绝单笔交易毁掉账户的可能性。

错误二:沉迷于指标和策略,忽视了价格本身

不断切换 SMA、MACD、ICT 等各种策略,试图找到“圣杯”。

改法:返璞归真。所有策略最终都要落到位置和风控上。与其学一百种入场技巧,不如精通一种基于市场结构的风险管理方法。记住,策略是次要的,位置和风控才是主要的。

错误三:没有固定交易时间,被市场全天牵着走

从早到晚都在看盘,看到波动就想参与,结果做了大量低质量的交易。

改法:为自己划定明确的“营业时间”。只在精力最集中、市场最活跃的时间段交易。这不仅是时间管理,更是精力管理和风险管理。

错误四:追涨杀跌,情绪化入场

看到价格突然拉升或下跌,生怕错过行情 (FOMO),立刻追进去,结果买在山顶或卖在地板。

改法:永远等待价格回到你计划中的“合理位置”。如果错过了,就耐心等待下一次机会。市场从不缺机会,缺的是等待机会的耐心。记住,好的交易是等来的,不是追来的。

错误五:盲目模仿他人仓位

在社区或群里看到别人用很大的手数(如 1 手 GC)并获利,便在自己下一笔交易中盲目模仿,完全不考虑自己的风险承受能力和止损距离。

改法:仓位永远是个性化计算的结果。你的风险金额、你的止损位置,共同决定了你独一无二的仓位。严禁直接复制他人的仓位,因为你无法复制他的风控体系。

总结

  1. 先有风控框架,再谈交易策略:新手期的核心任务是活下来。通过固定的风险金额和计算仓位,确保你不会被任何一笔交易淘汰出局。
  2. 简化你的交易流程:锁定交易时段,评估位置合理性,计算风险仓位,然后果断执行。这个流程远比任何复杂的策略都更可靠。
  3. 接受不确定性,专注于可控因素:你无法控制市场会涨还是会跌,但你可以 100% 控制自己在哪里入场、在哪里止损、以及冒多大的风险。把精力放在这些可控的因素上。
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