A new year, a new beginning.

The latest monthly figures on the economy hardly confirm a change of gear, but nor do they back up the worst doom-mongers claiming decline and recession. It is neither doom nor boom, but a new year makes an opportunity to wipe the slate clean on policy, on a sense of certainty, and perhaps above all, the vibes in the economy.

There is one chart that might explain quite a lot about both the state of and the prospects for the UK economy. And it might say a fair bit about the political direction of the UK too.

It is consumer confidence. These are the long-running surveys that essentially put the nation on the economic psychiatric couch. How do you feel about the economy's prospects? Are you likely to buy a major piece of equipment? How are your personal finances?

There is a solid data source of consistently asked questions going back five decades - it is the measure now called the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer.

I've been reporting on this metric for half of its existence. It's an imperfect science but the basic idea to reach the net confidence number is the optimism score minus the pessimism score.

The patterns then were interesting and consistent. And it was important as a predictor for those in power to stay in power. "It's the Economy Stupid", remember.

But has something significant changed in the water? This chart is quite extraordinary and a version of it has been circulated at the top of government.

A quick narration is in order.

This chart breaks down the headline net confidence number by age cohort.

Broadly speaking they used to move together, they were "correlated".

Younger people have a generally sunnier starting point but that dims as they age - not a great surprise - and all age groups react to events similarly.

Over the past decade you can see correlated declines in consumer confidence across all age groups in reaction to the post-Brexit vote era and the impact of the pandemic.

An interesting takeaway is how devastating the Liz Truss mini-budget in 2022 was for all age groups. A loss of confidence in the 45-day government and in economic prospects.

And up until 2024 all those lines move in tandem.

But what happens in late 2024? Divergence. Big time.

The under-50s' consumer confidence goes higher, and soars for the under-30s to highs not seen since Brexit.

But take a look at the bottom two red lines. Over-50s' and over-60s' consumer confidence collapses toward Truss-era levels.

How can it be that the over 50s, and pensioners in particular, are living through another collapse in economic confidence, and yet the young adult population is much more positive?

Well the dotted line is the 2024 General Election. And while correlation does not mean causation, that is when this age-related break occurs.

Votes affecting vibes

A possible explanation from political economy is this - the flow of causality from economic sentiment to political sentiment has reversed.

Where how you felt about your finances influenced how you voted, now how you voted influences how you feel about your finances and the economic outlook for the country.

Young people broadly on the liberal left are now happier after enduring a rolling series of crises so far this decade, and with a government they largely voted for in 2024.

The older, who voted Conservative and Reform predominantly, are unhappy and unconvinced. They think the country has gone to the dogs even more than usual.

One possible factor is the tone set by social media and the emotive doom-scrolling and rage magnets embodied in their algorithms. Is this demographic seeing the Mad Max-style dystopia presented on their social media feeds and responding with this negative outlook?

There is also some evidence in the US of respondents to one consumer sentiment survey exhibiting a political tint on their sense of economic confidence. In the transition between the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations at the end of 2020, Democrats respondents' economic confidence surged from 67 to 96, while Republicans' crashed from 100 to 59.

The Biden administration then bemoaned what staffers called the "Vibecession" - the subsequent sense of economic malaise not really reflected in good economic numbers.

Rates a double-edged sword

There are other economic factors at play.

This rebound in confidence for the young coincides with when the Bank of England started cutting interest rates. Rate cuts are good for young home seekers and jobseekers, but bad for older savers.

There are significant economic consequences if this picture is correct too.

It might help explain the curiously high and nearly double-digit UK savings rate. That looks like a pandemic-style aberration. Older Britain is sat on its savings, despondent about the country and the economy, refusing to spend its money and weighing down GDP, even as pay rises for workers remain higher on average than the rate of inflation.

The takeaways from this chart are also well-reflected in the early financial results we are getting from businesses.

Many retail results have defied the gloom. Some bosses that complain the most about National Insurance rises seem to be reporting healthy sales and profits having basically paid for the tax.

Pub chain Mitchells & Butlers "traded very strongly across the festive season with like-for-like growth of 7.7%". Fullers had an "outstanding five-week Christmas and New Year season across all parts of the estate", 8% up on an already strong festive period last year.

Obviously challenges remain in the level of price rises. But inflation is on its way down to the 2% target, with a conscious attempt from government to limit regulated price rises for rail and water.

More rate cuts will come slowly, and the impact of previous cuts will also filter into the household sector.

A mortgage price war may be on its way to help a housing market rebound after months of Budget uncertainty.

The government will hope to draw a line under a tumultuous 2025, with what they hope is an investment boom typified by recent announcements on Heathrow and on a new northern train line.

So there's a platform to defy the doom. But could people's now politically charged perceptions of economic confidence be a brake on all that?

Sienna Rose is having a good month.

Three of her dusky, jazz-infused soul songs are in Spotify's Viral Top 50. The most popular, a dreamy ballad called Into The Blue, has been played more than five million times.

If she continues on this trajectory, Rose could become one of the year's hottest new stars.

There's only one problem: All the signs indicate she's not real.

Streaming service Deezer, which has developed tools to tackle AI music, told the BBC that "many of her albums and songs on the platform are detected and flagged" as computer generated.

Look closer and you'll see the indications of an AI artist. Rose has no social media presence, has never played a gig, has no videos, and has released an improbable number of songs in a short space of time.

Between 28 September and 5 December, she uploaded at least 45 tracks to streaming services. Even Prince, an artist known for restless creative mania, would have struggled to match that figure.

Her Instagram account, which is currently deactivated, featured a strangely homogenous series of headshots, all showing the gauzy, unreal lighting that's characteristic of AI image generators.

Then there's the music itself. Songs like Into The Blue and Breathe Again sit neatly next to Norah Jones or Alicia Keys, full of jazzy guitar lines and buttery smooth vocals.

But many listeners have noted what they have identified as "AI artefacts".

Play Under The Rain or Breathe Again and you'll hear a telltale hiss running throughout the tracks.

That's a common trait of music generated on apps like Suno and Udio - partly because of the way they start with white noise and gradually refine it until it resembles music.

It's this quirk that enables Deezer to flag AI songs.

"When the [software] adds all the layers and the instruments, it introduces errors," explains Gabriel Meseguer-Brocal, a senior research scientist for the streaming company.

"They're not perceptual, we cannot listen to them, but they're easy to spot if you do a few mathematical operations."

The errors act like a fingerprint, Meseguer-Brocal says, with a "unique signature" that means it's possible to detect which piece of software was used to create any piece of music.

For casual listeners, there are other signs: Inconsistent drum patterns, bland lyrics, and a singer who never strays from the melody or lets rip on the final chorus.

That "generic" sound has been the biggest clue for some of Sienna Rose's listeners.

"I was like, 'I like this', but there was something that was very 'uncanny valley'," said TikTok music critic Elosi57.

"So I went to look [at her profile] and I was like, 'This is AI'."

Another user posted on X: "Started listening to Olivia Dean (fantastic). Within two days Spotify recommended Sienna Rose, who has a similar, but more generic sound. Took me a few songs to realise she's AI."

Broadcaster Gemma Cairney told BBC Radio 4: "The photographs of her do look a little bit unreal... And having listened to the music, is there just some of the soul in the soul missing?"

To be fair, many others have fallen for Rose's songs.

Among them is pop star Selena Gomez, who used the Rose track Where Your Warmth Begins as the background for an Instagram post about Sunday's Golden Globes.

The song was later removed when questions about Rose's identity spread online, but Gomez's post took interest in Rose and her identity to a new level.

And many of the listeners who'd been playing Rose's music reacted with dismay when they learned she might not exist.

"Please tell me she's real," pined one on Threads.

"I'm disappointed cuz a couple of her songs came on and the music isn't BAD," agreed another on Bluesky. "[But] somebody said once you know then it sounds soulless' and I agree."

AI music ban

Of course, it's entirely possible that everyone has got it wrong, and Sienna Rose is a real singer who shuns the limelight. Maybe she's in witness protection. Perhaps she's a real singer, stuck in a contractual dispute with her label, and releasing music under a pseudonym.

If so, I'm sorry. It must be crushing to have your music labelled as soulless "slop". But that's indicative of the problem facing the entire music industry right now.

AI software is becoming so sophisticated that clone artists are competing with genuine musicians.

In Sweden this week, a chart-topping song was banned from the charts after journalists discovered the artist behind it, Jacub, didn't exist.

There are many people - both in tech companies and the business side of the music industry - who want to see AI succeed.

The costs of launching an act like Sienna Rose are practically zero, but her music is making an estimated £2,000 in royalties per week.

Compare that to the K-Pop industry, where labels invest an average of $1m (£750,000) per member of a girl or boy group per year, and you can see the attraction.

Interestingly, several of Rose's songs are credited to New York indie record label Broke - who have a track record in turning viral artists like bbno$ and Ndotz into chart stars.

If you visit their website, Rose isn't listed as one of their signings - but British dance act Haven are.

If that name rings a bell, it's because they got into trouble late last year for creating a song using an AI clone of Jorja Smith's voice.

Their song, Run, was removed from streaming services after record industry bodies issued takedown notices, alleging the track violated copyright - but was re-recorded with human vocals, and entered the UK Top 10 two weeks ago.

The BBC has contacted Broke to ask about their relationship with Sienna Rose, but has yet to receive a reply.

The BBC has also contacted another label, Nostalgic Records, which lists Rose on its website.

Nostalgic Records' biography claims she is "London-based" and says she is "not just a performer, but a storyteller of the heart".

Deezer says 34% of the songs uploaded to its streaming service - about 50,000 per day - are AI-generated.

"Eighteen months ago, it was around 5% or 6%," says Meseguer-Brocal. "It's kind of shocking how quickly it's increasing."

Still, Deezer hasn't gone as far as online music store Bandcamp, which this week announced it was banning all AI-generated music.

In a statement, Spotify defended the presence of artists like Rose on its playlists.

"It's not always possible to draw a simple line between 'AI' and 'non-AI' music," a spokesperson said. "Spotify does not create or own any music, and does not promote or penalise tracks created using AI tools."

In the meantime, a backlash against AI music is growing.

Last year, artists including Paul McCartney, Kate Bush, Damon Albarn, the Pet Shop Boys and Annie Lennox released a "silent album" protesting against companies who train their AI models on copyrighted work without permission.

Speaking at the Ivor Novello Awards in 2024, pop star Raye told me she believed fans would always choose real music over algorithmically-generated filler.

"There's no reason to feel a threat," she said. "I don't write because I'm trying to be the best writer. I write because I'm trying to tell my story.

"I'm trying to lift off some weight I've been carrying or I'm trying to express myself and feel better."

At the same event, Kojey Radical said he wasn't worried about AI when he couldn't even trust his washing machine to start at the right time.

"Why is everyone trying to make me scared of the robots?" he laughed.

"I'm not scared of the robots. I will win."

The mayor of Yokohama has apologised for insulting colleagues after an official publicly accused him of making offensive remarks.

At a news conference, the Japanese city's human resource chief, Jun Kubota, alleged that Mayor Takeharu Yamanaka had used terms such as "idiot" and "human scum" to disparage staff.

It is highly unusual in Japan for a serving city official to openly accuse a sitting mayor and demand an apology.

Yamanaka initially denied the allegations, but later admitted to some of them. "I want to frankly apologise for placing a psychological burden on the personnel director," he said.

At a news conference on Thursday, Kubota accused Mayor Yamanaka of repeatedly making remarks towards officials - including himself - that could amount to workplace harassment.

The mayor was accused of calling officials "useless", "silly" and "low-spec", as well as making comments about colleagues' appearance and likening them to animals.

He is also accused of threatening Kubota, saying he would have to "commit seppuku" - a Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment - if he failed to secure an international conference bid.

Kubota demanded an apology from Yamanaka and called for an investigation.

Yamanaka initially published a statement on his personal website, denying the allegations.

But on Friday, he publicly acknowledged some remarks - such as using words like "idiot" and "human scum" - and apologised.

"I am reflecting on this. I will be more careful with my words and behaviour," Yamanaka said.

He said those comments were made during discussions over personnel evaluations.

However, the mayor denied other accusations, including insulting colleagues' appearance.

Yamanaka said an investigation was being considered under the supervision of the deputy mayor, adding that he would co-operate "sincerely" if an investigation takes place.

In response, Kubota insisted Yamanaka had made the comments he has not admitted to, saying: "The mayor doesn't understand anything. I cannot accept that as an apology. I want him to change."

Police in Uganda have denied allegations that presidential candidate Bobi Wine was abducted on Friday evening as vote counting continues in the East African nation amid an internet blackout.

Wine's party said a helicopter landed in the grounds of his house in the capital, Kampala, and forcibly took him to an unknown location.

Initially Wine's son, Solomon Kampala, said both his parents had been seized, but later claimed his father "escaped" and his mother was still under house arrest, leading to confusion over the whereabouts of the opposition leader.

The latest electoral figures from Thursday's vote give Museveni 72% of the vote, with Wine on 24%, based on returns from 94% of polling stations.

Speaking at a press conference on Saturday morning, police spokesman Kituuma Rusoke said the National Unity Platform (NUP) party leader was still in his home in Kampala and that it was Wine's family members who were spreading "untrue" and "unfounded" claims.

He said Wine's movements were restricted because his home was an area of "security interest".

"We have controlled access to areas which are security hotspots," Uganda's Daily Monitor paper quoted him as saying.

"We cannot allow people to use some places to gather and cause chaos. All our actions are intended to prevent anybody from creating violence or destabilising our security," he said.

On Friday, Wine had told his supporters to ignore the "fake results" that have been announced, saying the authorities have been "stealing the vote". He did not provide any evidence to back up his claim and the authorities have not responded to his allegations.

Wine's son Solomon Kampala, who has been posting updates on social media, admitted overnight he was getting conflicting reports about the security situation at his parents' home.

"Amidst the raid my father was able to escape, my mother is still currently under [house] arrest, still nobody is allowed to enter the house," he posted on X on Saturday morning.

Difficulty accessing the internet in the country has made it hard for people to verify information.

News that at least seven opposition supporters were killed in disputed circumstances in Butambala, about 55km (35 miles) south-west of the capital, on Thursday only emerged later on Friday.

The US embassy then issued an alert to its citizens because of reports the security forces were "using tear gas and firing into the air to disperse gatherings".

During Thursday's vote, voting was delayed by up to four hours in many polling stations around the country as ballot boxes were slow to arrive and biometric machines, used to verify voters' identity, did not work properly.

Some have linked the problems to the network outage.

Electoral chief Simon Byabakama said on Friday that the vote counting had not been affected by the internet blackout and the final results would be out before 17:00 local time (14:00 GMT] on Saturday.

Thursday's election followed an often violent campaign, with President Museveni, 81, seeking a seventh term in office. He first took power as a rebel leader in 1986.

Wine, a 43-year-old pop star-turned-politician, who says he represents the youth in a country where most of the population is aged under 30, has promised to tackle corruption and impose sweeping reforms, while Museveni argues he is the sole guarantor of stability and progress in Uganda.

Although there are six other candidates, the presidential poll is a two-horse race between Museveni and Wine.

The campaign period was marred by the disruption of opposition activities - security forces have been accused of assaulting and detaining Wine's supporters.

Rusoke, the police spokesperson, dismissed these complaints, accusing opposition supporters of being disruptive.

Internet access was suspended on Tuesday, with Uganda's Communications Commission saying the blackout was necessary to prevent misinformation, fraud and the incitement of violence - a move condemned by the UN human rights office as "deeply worrying".

Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.

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Justice Secretary David Lammy has intervened to block the transfer of a killer to an open prison after it emerged he had released drill music with lyrics referencing the murder, under a pseudonym.

Jake Fahri was sentenced to life in 2009 for killing 16-year-old Jimmy Mizen by throwing an oven dish at him that shattered and severed the arteries in his neck.

He was released on licence in 2023 but was later recalled after the Sun published a story that alleged Fahri was making music, including about the murder, as balaclava-clad artist TEN.

Two years on, the Parole Board has said he should now be moved to an open prison - but a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said Lammy's intervention was for "public protection".

In its decision summary, the board had said Farhi had initially disputed that the music was "about his own life" but after being recalled to prison, he accepted that he was the artist TEN.

It added that Farhi "needed to reflect" on "why he failed to be open and honest with the professionals managing his case" but this "could be achieved" in an open prison.

Lammy's reversal has been welcomed by Mizen's mother Margaret, who told the Sun she was "shocked" by the Parole Board's initial recommendation.

"I would much prefer this decision didn't have to be made because he would have turned his life around. I'm really sad that he hasn't," she said.

But the reversal shows Farhi had "not changed his attitude".

"He got into the witness box at his trial and lied through his teeth. Clearly, he hasn't changed, and I'm glad the justice secretary has seen through it."

Farhi had been given a minimum 14 year prison term - but, as with all minimum terms, that is the point at which release can be considered, usually with conditions attached about the criminal's behaviour outside prison.

Music by TEN was showcased on BBC 1Xtra. who were unaware of his real identity at the time of broadcast.

There is fresh paint in Reform HQ - and a fresh face in its line-up.

Before Thursday, the last time Robert Jenrick walked into Millbank Tower, a fabled address in Westminster where lots of political campaigns have been run, was decades ago as an eager Conservative activist.

Now, he's Reform UK's biggest prize so far - the best-known Tory to defect, and a favourite of Conservative party members.

Like or loathe Jenrick's tactics he has campaigning guile, a knack for grabbing headlines, experience of government, knowledge of Parliament and, of course, insider knowledge of what Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and her team are up to.

So how will this big political character adapt to a new political tribe? And could his huge move be swallowed up by a big fight on the right, at a time when Reform UK are busy trying to appeal to the whole country?

From speaking to Jenrick yesterday, he is plainly deadly serious about his political future, hitching his wagon to the biggest party in the polls right now. But any defection brings with it deep questions about whether that person can be trusted.

Some Conservatives are accusing him of lying and treachery. They say he sat in meetings with colleagues in the last seven days discussing party strategy normally.

He even, one source claimed to me, told the chief whip when challenged on the morning of his defection that it was "nonsense" and that he was "gobsmacked".

Hours later, Jenrick did appear grinning alongside Reform UK leader Nigel Farage for the public handshake sealing the deal after, remember, being sacked.

Did he serially deny thinking about going to Reform in the last few months?

Yes.

Do we know now that he'd been talking to them since the autumn?

Yes to that too.

Jenrick's answer to accusations of lying, and to the evidence he misled people, is to claim he is the one now being truly honest about the state of the country and the demise of the Conservative Party. He told us that he'd only made a final decision to leave at Christmas.

Whether you have sympathy for him, think his behaviour is appalling, or something in between, there's clearly a poisonous row raging over what he did. That row does nothing for the sense of trust in politicians.

He wouldn't be drawn on whether it was one of his own team who leaked his plans to defect, but you can be sure today won't be the last word on that.

One of the reasons for Jenrick's exit from the Tories is that he wanted to strike a more strident tone than his colleagues were willing to do. Political parties traditionally stand or fall on being able to disagree privately but agree in public. Without that discipline, it's chaos.

We asked him if he now agreed with Reform's position on benefits for bigger families – his answer was that the party "needs to think it through". Not exactly the same as the script.

And what about the NHS? Jenrick wasn't ready to agree with Farage's previous comments that it could possibly move to an insurance-based model. But it highlights an area where Reform will be under pressure to take a clearer position.

Political parties aren't just about what colour your banner or tie is, but what you believe in and stand for.

Once upon at time, Jenrick was seen as a 'Cameroon', a devotee of David Cameron's Waitrose-style politics: modern, socially liberal, middle-class-friendly. It is one thing to shift right, shaped by changes in the country and his own experience at the Home Office, for which he quit government in frustration. It's another to take the leap into a party that has a whole different system of beliefs.

And politicians are by nature ambitious people. Jenrick told me he hadn't been offered a job by Farage, but it's crackers to imagine that he doesn't want a prominent position.

How will his arrival go down with Reform's small number of other big names - Richard Tice or Zia Yusuf? Ambition - for themselves and their party, and, they'd say, the country - is what gets politicians out of bed in the morning. Sharing the spotlight is not something they all exactly love.

Jenrick told me he and Farage's previous barbs against each other were just "rough and tumble".

But given their exchanges have involved trading insults including fraud, hypocrite and unserious, we'll have to see how their working relationship evolves.

Jenrick's defection raises one of the biggest questions in politics right now; whether Reform UK can, as Jenrick says he wants to, "unite the right".

It has spent months miles ahead in the polls even as the Tories have pepped up a touch in recent weeks. But as Jenrick himself used to claim, there is a risk that if voters choose Reform that will split the votes on the right, making it easier for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to win next time round.

Truly "uniting the right" would require the Tories limping off - or, what right now seems far-fetched, the opposite. Or indeed doing a deal, which both groups swear blind they wouldn't.

There's no sign Badenoch has the appetite for anything other than a fight to the death.

As Chris Mason wrote yesterday, there is a risk that recruiting Jenrick and others gives Reform the flavour of being a repository for grumpy Conservatives, not the radical insurgent force Farage would like to claim. But nothing would suit Labour more than for the two to stay locked in combat, reminding the public of years of Tory spats and showing that both Reform and the Conservatives are focused on each other, not No 10.

Jenrick has clearly thought deeply about leaving the party that gave him his career and the opportunity to wield power. Over time, you can see that he has come to believe that the problems of the country need something more radical than either of the traditional big parties are prepared to countenance.

Reform will now have his knowledge and backing to help answer that call with a credible offer to the public. The Conservatives, in his view, need more than a fresh coat of paint.

Top image credit: Getty Images

BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. Emma Barnett and John Simpson bring their pick of the most thought-provoking deep reads and analysis, every Saturday. Sign up for the newsletter here