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Today — 2 April 2026Main stream

获得 B 站 AI 创作大赛一等奖的 UP 主说,AI 对创意没有任何帮助,但价值在别处

By: 刘学文
2 April 2026 at 16:04

《奇点临近》是一本 2005 年出版的关于未来技术预测的书,如今看来其中诸多预测都过于乐观,比如说关于 VR 在 2010 年就能普及和成熟的预测。

但有一个预测又明显保守了,这本书里预测到 2029 年才会有突破图灵测试的人工智能电脑出现。实际上,2023 年的时候,ChatGPT 就已经完成了图灵测试。后果就是,社交网络上遍布着各种难以分辨以假乱真的 AI 生成内容,再然后,针对 AI 生成的垃圾内容有了专属名词「数字泔水」。

人们对于技术奇点临近的感知有所不同,真正让我感受到震撼且明确感知 AI 技术足以断代的事情是《牌子》这个依靠 AI 生成的视频。

所以,我希望在往下看下去之前,可以先抽出 7 分钟的时间,先看看这个在 B 站已经有 1800 多万播放量的视频:【牌子】当世界过分“诚实”,我们要如何保持好奇与勇气

B 站 Up 主 DiDi_OK 是这个视频的作者,他的作品最终也获得了 B 站首届 AI 创作大赛开放赛道的一等奖。他在颁奖典礼上的分享,在我看来,其价值并不亚于《牌子》这个视频,如果说《牌子》这个视频的价值在于让人们认识到,AI 生成视频的上限在哪里,那么这个分享的价值就在于这个「上限」如何产生的。

DiDi_OK 分享全文

(为了方便阅读,我自作主张加了小标题)

大家好!非常荣幸能站在这里给大家分享一下我的创作过程,首先我做一个自我介绍。我叫 DiDi_OK,之所以叫这个名字,是因为我曾用名有一个字是 D,所以从小到大,所有人都叫我弟弟,大家都可以占这个便宜。

目前我在伦敦从事广告制作行业,突然做 AI 其实是顺水推舟的事情,今天非常荣幸可以跟所有的朋友分享我是如何做这个故事,以及 AI 过程中我个人的想法。这里叠一个甲,有可能有一点有一些小暴论,但是的的确确是我真实的想法。

把不吐不快的感受表达出来,这是创作的初始条件

第一,我分享一下我初始创作的灵感。我在很多采访和分享中提到过,其实《牌子》的最初创意是圣诞节期间和朋友们去土耳其旅游得到的灵感。

这里有几张图,比如说前面两张和最后一张都是来自土耳其的照片,这是我第一次经历,我到了一个没有办法说母语,说英语也没有用的地方,我完全无法理解很多牌子的意思,我只能用 ChatGPT 跟当地的司机进行有障碍的沟通,这个时候我恰巧意识到好像图形一开始就是人类交流的语言。

第三张图是很重要的图,是英国朋友家的照片,在他家洗手间上看到两个感叹号,我当时有一个我自己的感受,我最终没有选择问他,因为我觉得这个留给我的故事更有意义。这就是我初始的创作,大家会看到这是一个比较有形式化的创意出发点。

接下来就有一些我真正比较内核的表达在里面,对我来说,我从来不认为故事是目的,我认为表达才是我们每一次行动的目的,至少我是这么坚持的。日常生活中我相信每个人都有非常多的感受,比如说对我而言,圣诞节期间,我有一个非常强烈的感受就是愤怒。因为那一段打开新闻会有非常多不太美好的新闻,比如说打仗,我平时在伦敦会感受到多种族熔炉下,每一个种族下有一些剑拔弩张不美好的感觉,我觉得都 2026 年了,怎么人还坏成这样子?

有了愤怒自然有诉求,我是有一个期待的,我非常期待能够感受到我小时候感受到的感觉,就是所有人在一起,比如说 2008 年地球村的感觉以及我是有一个时代烙印的,我从小看《独立日》《指环王》,我非常怀念我第一次指环王白城保卫战的画面,同时我也非常怀念《哈利波特》中霍格沃茨保卫战的画面,我很费解为什么最近看不到这些东西了,这就是我的期待,我期待再次看到这样的画面,以及我感觉你们不做,那我来做,这是我的第二个期待。

最终落实到一个表达,我的核心表达就是人与人之间的隔阂变少,说人话就是能不能真的把对方当成人,大家一起做一件事,就像《加勒比海岛 3》每一艘船升起自己国旗的画面。

这是我个人的公式,每次做片子我会套这个片子,我称之为前期的思维导图。首先是表达,找到了表达点,一定是发自我内心的感受,我可能不说出来就说睡不着。这个时候我会再问自己这个表达是否有价值,这个表达传递给他人是否会带来困扰还是会带来比较有意思的感受,这是我的第一步自我审核。

表达就像请客吃饭,要考虑受众,也要考虑成本

第二步就到了形式的问题,因为我感觉做片子,对我来说更像是我请客吃饭,我有一个非常独特的,可能是家乡菜或者是我自己研究的一道菜,如果我只是直接端到客人面前是有一些唐突的。

比如说我想请一个外国朋友吃我最喜欢吃的臭豆腐,我直接端给他,他大概率是拒绝的,这个时候我要出于我的礼貌,比如说该有的刀叉要备好,可能该有的中国比较著名的菜,像糖醋里脊、宫保鸡丁还是要准备,潜移默化中给对方一定的时间去接受,在合适的 timing 我端出我的臭豆腐问一下,你尝一下,有可能会喜欢,这个对我来说就是形式。

在《牌子》片子中,我最终选择了我自己觉得很有意思的形式,就是各种各样的牌子。这个时候会引出另外一个点,何为有意思,何为有意思的形式。我们回想起来这些著名的影视作品中的设计,比如说《星球大战》中的死星是传奇的武器,一整颗星球是武器,但是整个视觉语言非常简单,就是球体,大家不需要有过多的理解成本就可以理解,这是一颗人造星体,具有超级威力,这样的设计方式在《星球大战》中非常多,《星球大战》表现速度感的几艘主要的飞船,我看到了设计理念,基本上来自衣服夹,这种方式是一种比较快速能够把观众代入故事的手段。

这步结束以后我会再问自己技术上是否可行?尽管现在有非常多的 AI 工具,比如说 SeeDance2、可灵,它们都非常优秀。但是作为小团队或者个人作者,我依然考虑一个问题,就是我是否可以在单位周期内完成这份作业,如果单位周期内无法完成,我个人的情绪就会散掉,所以我第一步就来预判,有了好的形式,它是否成本可控?技术可控?也在第三步我会 pass 掉非常多的创意,有可能这些创意很酷了,但是我无法控制它的成本。

在这三步之后,我会再次问自己,这一系列的做法之后,我能否回归我的表达?这一点有点类似于姜文提到的我就是为了这盘醋才包的饺子,如果我饺子包完,我的那盘醋端不上来,我依然不会想要做这个片子,这是我前期的自我审视、自我检查。

AI 不仅改变了工作方式,也让自我价值被重新审视

AI 到底改变了什么?至少目前为止改变了我整个工作方式,以及生活上心态上的改变,我展开剖析一下只代表我个人的改变。

第一,AI 凸显了个人的价值,特别是成为你自己。从毕业到现在,我经历过找工作,跟身边的朋友找工作都面临一个问题,是不是自己不够优秀,我是不是应该为了一个社会的形状去砍掉自己的某一部分,是不是我不太会社交,是我有点 I 人。但是我往往发表一个暴论,就是我认为世界上不应该有人因为做自己而受到惩罚,这是不对的事情。但是往往很多人其实过去很多时候或多或少会因为做自己而受到惩罚。

我有很多个人的经历,我从小画画,我喜欢画怪物,我也经历过年轻的时候谈恋爱到对象家,对方父母问你干什么的?我想了半天说我是画怪物的,其实我当时觉得我没有价值感,好像没有非常体面生活方式或者思想。但是我觉得现在反而是我一直坚持下来的想法和理念,能让我在这个时代突然一下子做出一些有意思的东西。我就突然意识到下一个问题,好像做自己这个赛道上,没有人比我更强。AI 出现之后,我某些窘迫和奇怪的点是可以被接受的,因为它们可能在某个层面上存在真正的价值。

第二,内容孤岛化。这可能是我自己发明的词,我观察到一个现象,90 后或者是一直到 2000 年的人,大家提到听歌就是周杰伦,女歌手就是蔡依林,有可能还有林俊杰,在过去那个时代,大家打开电视就是共同的文化内容,不论是音乐还是电影,有一个非常共通点,大家都是看着这些人长大的。但是现在出现了一个问题,我们打开自己的音乐 APP,彼此之间的歌单差异非常大,内容越来越个人化,孤岛化,我喜欢的东西,甚至我最好的朋友未必都知道。这个时候我觉得它和做自己形成了互补,甚至是两者形成了一种对应的含义坐标,我可以做自己的同时,做自己独立的内容去吸引跟我志同道合的人,这对我来说是 AI 改变一个内容传播的方面。

最重要,大家都能感受到,就是 AI 改变了我们的生产方式,这一点我非常有经历。最早我是做游戏的概念设计,再后来做了游戏动画,基本上在设计端或者制作端整个流程,我或多或少都参与过。我能体会到的第一个改变就是沉没成本,比如说在曾经的时代要做概念设计,我的确有一个非常有意思的想法,比如说我看到衣服架子,我真的想把它设计成飞船,但是前提需要很长时间的沉没成本,比如说你是否精确掌握透视,你是否精确掌握图形的分割,单纯图形分割语言,对我而言,五到六年是非常短的时间,在行业里都不属于非常卷的练习量。同时还要了解配、饱和度,最后就会意识到这需要童子功。同时要做动画,pipeline 就会更大,精通于绑定的人,可能一辈子都没有打开过玛雅的建模功能,每一个流程都出现了极长的沉没成本和非常孤立的工作流,需要团队协作才能把整件事完成。但是现在做一个东西,由于 AI 存在,它更像一个黑盒,输入端和输出端,输入我想要什么,输出确保是我想要的,这是生产方式的改变,极大减少了我们的成本。

当 AI 把生产成本降得足够低,个人意志的能量也可以足够强

最后就是个人创作的机会,根本上也发生了改变。第一点,就是个人风格。这次《牌子》我看到很多评论非常有意思,有人会问这不就是 MV 吗?为什么台词这么少?这些在做的时候我都料到了,曾经的生产模式中,如果要做一个片子,我不太可能个人拉起一整个团队我也没有这样的关系、资源。但是就算是我和志同道合的人一起去做,依然要考虑一个问题就是成本。同时还要考虑到一个问题,这个东西发出去,我要有收益,否则我巨大的成本,没有收益也不会贸然做出这一步。最终我的作品很有可能变成一个非常平庸的东西,我需要考虑到方方面面,考虑到投资人,考虑到观众是否会掏钱等等。

但是就像我开始做我自己片子的时候,我发现我完全不需要考虑这个问题。第一,成本很低,我想做就做了。同时面向观众这一端,我不会有太多的压力,因为我是免费给大家看的,大家赏脸看我会很开心,但是如果大家不愿意看,我也不需要观众为我付出时间以外的资源。所以这种情况下,我就会更大胆地尝试这个片子,很有可能这个片子就是 MV,你如果觉得是我也很开心,但是也有可能是非常少对白的叙事电影,我就发现 AI 时代下我多了非常多的容错率和大胆尝试的可能性。

还有一个就是内容差异化,这个也是我关注别人作品时候有一个点非常令我震撼,我不知道大家有没有在 B 站上看过一个视频,就是把小岛秀夫的《死亡搁浅》做成了郭德纲相声,这样一个解构对我来说过于震撼了,我曾经觉得《死亡搁浅》非常高雅的第九艺术,郭德纲是我非常喜欢的相声艺术家,但是两者的结合如果放在曾经沉没成本是极高的,这样的艺术形式前端的成本无法控制,后期的回本无法控制,但是现在这样一个全新的内容就这么出现了,每个人都能感受到,这又进一步避免了内卷化。大家一直讨论AI是不是只能复刻已有的东西,但是我提到的这几个东西,其实人们已经拿AI做全新的东西,曾经不存在的形式,这个赛道并不是变得越来越拥挤,而是通往不同方向路变得非常多。

最后引申到我的另外一个个人感受,就是关于二手欲望的问题,生活中很多东西产生二手欲望,比如说我职位 title 是不是能让家人和女朋友有面子?或者说我的学校等等二手的焦虑和二手欲望,做视频的时候我过去是可以感受到的。比如说我做出来是否符合行业标准,行业里的老前辈怎么看我?甚至我发一个视频有没有人看,流量、热度,但是曾经我有这种压力和焦虑的时候,是因为我的沉没本太大了,我有点输不起的感觉。但是我觉得有了 AI 之后,整个 pipeline 就非常简单,我在做的时候很爽,我不会再产生二手焦虑、二手欲望,我就关注一件事,这个故事有没有讲明白,这顿饺子包得好不好,以及那盘醋到底最后有没有人去蘸一下,这是AI带给我个人的一些想法。
最重要的一点就是有意思,这也是引用郭德纲的一句话,讲相声先搞笑,不搞笑就太搞笑了。所以我觉得做视频无论是唱片、短片、动画有意思是最重要的,如果没有意思,这件事就真的很没意思。

关于 AI 赛道,赛道其实变多了,由于前端和后端的成本降低,观众的压力很小,制作者的压力也很少,必然带来一个结果就是包容增加,这样一个时代会承载更多有趣的灵魂。

对于我来说,有一个公式,至少我是通过这一套公式看看每一次新作品是不是有意思。对我来讲最重要的就是游戏、电影、书籍、音乐,它们组成了最基本的底色,就是我的底色。举一个例子,我认为每个人不同的经历会给每个人带来不同的底色,如果我是一个黄色,那我遇到了一件事情,这件事情是蓝色,就会组成绿色,但是如果说是教授,您就是红色,但是同样遇到一个蓝色的事情,您可能得到一个紫色,真正变亮是我们自己,我们自己最开始的底色,我通常用这样的模板分析我现在的底色是什么样子的。我刚才提到,我刻意的追求一个人类大团结,这个对我来说是非常重要的底色,因为我的确就是从小《指环王》看起来的,但是可能一个人从小就比较喜欢黑色幽默的主题,那得出来的结果必然跟我不一样。

同时,因为 AI 的出现,各种艺术形式的边界开始模糊,有一个很直接的例子,我收到很多的反馈,大家都非常喜欢这次片子的音乐,但是其实我自己是一个五音不全的人,五线谱都不认识的。当时我做《Error》的时候我想到很多游戏作品,比如说《死亡搁浅》,而这次在做《牌子》的时候,我依然会想到我喜欢的游戏,比如说我喜欢的《巫师 3》,我喜欢其中的配乐方式是古代波兰传统艺术形式,就是女人的吟唱感。我就把这个描述给 Gemini,问它这到底叫什么?它会告诉我历史和典故,最后给我一段 Prompt,而这一切的灵感是来自于书籍,我听过的音乐、打过的游戏,它们让我的底色越来越浓。

最终这个底色我称之为通感,我发现一个很有意思的现象,比如说我很喜欢的艺术家,很多年轻人都很喜欢就是《爱死机》的导演,也是《证人》的导演阿尔贝托,我就会观察他的个人生活,他除了动画做得很好,传统油画我认为画得登峰造极,同时衣品也特别好,身材也特别好,我更加确信这是他的通感特别好。

当我们确定了一个人的通感的时候,我再次审视我表达的层面,我的经历、背景以及我的性格,最重要的就是我的主观感受。比如说我的背景,因为我长期待在伦敦,潜移默化中会出现一些伦敦的场景。如果另外一个作者经常待在上海,很有可能他的作品里上海占据很大一部分,这个时候又一次发生了变化。

再就是性格,我如何收敛我的性格跟别人达成一种共识,但是现在我不需要考虑其他人的感受我可以完全地把我的性格表达出来。

最后就是主观感受,我就是会有愤怒感和期待,我表达出来就好,这个时候我们会发现,我们已经加入很多的变量,有点像打游戏,每个玩家打游戏都点出自己的天赋数,每点出一层变量就会多一种可能性,这个时候我觉得可能就成为我,有了通感,有了我,我可能就要写故事,我因为旅游、新闻都会产生感受,就有了契机,有了契机就有动力,但是最重要的就是要强调个人审美,我不觉得它只跟美术有关系,更多的是你说话的方式、做事的方式,是一种很多方式的总和这是一道菜最重要的调料。我之所以每一次做的都是写实风格,就是因为我比较喜欢低饱和度,有一点点幽默空间的氛围,这是我的个人表达。最终把所有的东西加在一起,这个饺子就包完了,你可以得到一个故事。

AI 让执行变得简单,哪怕做出垃圾也是有意义的

结束这个环节,我们就可以讨论,到底 AI 有没有帮助我们提升创作,我个人认为 AI 正在把创作权归还给我们,不论是工作流变化,还是个人表达主张的便利性,我都觉得它节省了我的时间,当我节省了时间,去除了沉没成本,节省了很多体力,最后还剩下什么?有一个显而易见的答案就是灵魂。比如说设计一个角色,你不用练基本功,当然基本功很重要,但是你至少可以省下大部分的时间。比如说做一个 3D 的角色的时候,你不用每天每夜的拆 UV 或者去做优化,因为在曾经的工作流中你要设计一个有趣的角色,我认为有趣的耗费时间把它变有趣,最多占 20%,大部分时间你要考虑如何把 3D 模型优化好交给绑定的团队,这都和创意没有关系。所以我感觉现在更像是退潮了,才可以看到到底留在海滩上的哪部分属于创意的部分,而这部分恰恰是 AI 留给我们的。

这里有很多我自己的想法,比如说曾经用于拆 UV 的时间用来表达。我还想说故事是一切的核心,如果让我给出建议,我希望大家赶紧去做故事,而且越快越好,因为有些故事放在我心里太久,久到我没有勇气说它了。所以我现在有一个想法,我就像章协调日记一样赶紧写出来,哪怕只有 15 秒,对我来说都非常有价值,而且它是可以被扩展开的。

这里还有一个小暴论,但是其实它是出现在教科书,游戏设计行业里称之为圣经的教科书,扉页里有一句话是「你的前 10 个作品都是垃圾,所以赶紧做掉吧」。曾经我一直想努力地做完我的前 10 个垃圾,但是在 3D 时代,我用了三年才做了 8 个垃圾,我还差 2 个垃圾,我感觉我可能有经验。但是 AI 的话,我的确可以很快把前 10 个垃圾做完,并且快速迭代,收到市场反馈,这是 AI 时代最重要的一点,它给到我们无法找借口机会,我们不能再说时间不够,设备不好,没有时间去做,我们可以快速把人生前十个垃圾做完收到市场反馈继续进步。

还有就是关于技术层面,曾经我自己也陷入一个误区,我会像孔乙己一样,向别人分享你知道茴香豆的茴字有几种写法吗?我相信每一个做 3D 的人都有或多或少这样的经历,我掌握了新的拆 UV 的方法,我觉得太棒了,我掌握了新的减少 3D 面数的方法,我可能不厌其烦地陷入这种具体的可被代替的技术当中。但是现在市场告诉我们,它不再有价值了,而且你没有必要再浪费时间在这种事情上了,你可以直面故事本身,直面表达本身,这对我来说是通过 AI 的努力,把某种本该属于我的权利归还给我。

以上就是我的分享,我还是想表达我的立场,我还是一个很坚定的人类至上的拥护者,真正决定一个作品,不论是片子还是一首歌都是我的表达,我不希望它有丝毫对我的影响。这是我最终想分享的,非常感谢!

▲ 用 Nano Banana 2 生成的《诗云》意象图

《诗云》,李白,与品位

除了在颁奖典礼的完整分享,UP 主 DiDi_OK 在这次 B 站首届 AI 创作大赛活动后面还有圆桌对谈和媒体采访,其中一段我觉得可以单独拎出来另成一段。他在聊个人特点和特性在 AI 时代是否更重要的时候说:

尽管刘慈欣老师有一个小说写得跟 AI 没有关系,但是已经把答案告诉我了,就是《诗云》,这是一个关于 AI 非常经典的模型。

 

讲的就是神级文明,他非常喜欢中国人的古诗,自己又写不出来,一气之下把地球变成了空心的服务器,通过大量的计算,能把所有中文排列出来的可能性都排列出来,这就意味着只要人类能够写出来的古诗都飘浮在天空中,问题就出现了,你如何识别哪一首是最好的古诗?比如说李白时代他知道什么叫好,于是他写出来了,其他人就知道这个好,现在它已经存在了,就仿佛现在的 AI,我们可以一口气生成一万段是没有问题的,但是哪一段是真正的好,哪一段能被别人也同时认为是真正的好,这是最考验创作者能力。

虽然没有提「品位」这个关键词,但是「知道什么是好的」其实是「品位」的另一种表达。

非常凑巧的是,不久前跟同事聊 AI 已经可以在各个内容领域生成 70 分乃至 80 分的不错作品,那什么时候可以生成 90 分乃至 95 分的顶级内容,乃至会不会生成超越最顶尖人类手搓内容的满分内容时,也想到了刘慈欣的《诗云》。

依靠极其庞大的算力,AI 理论上可以生产出无限的文字排列组合,这里面自然包含有李白的所有诗作,甚至也会有超越李白的诗作存在,这是个数字游戏。

《诗云》的结局是神级文明的算力可以找出所有的文字排列组合,但这些算力远远不够找出其中的杰作。

不是很恰当的比喻是,很多人可以背圆周率后面的几百位上千位,但这些记忆的价值,远远不如祖冲之把圆周率算到小数点后第 7 位。

非要蹭个热点的话,也很像最近关于《李白》这首歌的版权争论,也是关乎于品位。没有品位的人,会把一首很好的作品改编得面目全非,而拥有这种东西的人,则可以让 AI 工具撬动巨大的生产力杠杆。

但真正产生决定性作用的,还是使用 AI 工具的那个人,DiDi_OK 也说:

我目前的体感,AI 创意上没有帮助过我任何一点,你会被它气死,但是在基础资料上给了我极大的帮助,比如说过去要结合各种搜索引擎确认一些事情,当然它还是会有胡说八道的可能性,但是基础资料的搜索提供不少帮助。

 

如果你想要它给你情绪方面的拔高,我认为几乎不可能,我们突然问他一个热点的梗,它无法理解,它无法理解人类有点神经质的笑点、快乐点,这是人类最敏锐的部分。有时候我们仔细问自己一个事情,为什么要笑一个梗,每一个新火起来的梗都有层次感,但是如果我们能做出直击别人内心的一下子,我觉得 AI 太难理解了,这也是我认为写剧本目前最难的部分,你要打动另外一个人,特别是你把你脑子里的东西抠出来,抠出来的过程中本来就会产生损耗,再放到别人脑子的时候又出现损耗,这个就需要人与人的交流。

在这次 B 站 AI 创作大赛的参与者当中,叫兽易小星可能是名气最大的获奖者。他在前 AI 创作时代就已经是相当成功的网红视频创作者和导演,甚至作为演员也做得还不错。

他成为影视行业从业者的起点,源自于 2010 年左右的土豆映像节短片奖。佳能 5D2 这款不算昂贵也不算笨重的设备在当时可以拍摄出比较专业的影视画面,进而催生出了「微电影」的概念,以及「每个人都是生活的导演」的口号。

平价生产力设备的出现,平台的激励,匹配上了众多的草根创作者的创作热情和想法,一段时间内「微电影」如火如荼。

虽然后面土豆网和「微电影」概念都渐渐偃旗息鼓,但那一批土豆映像节的参与者中,有《哪吒》系列的导演饺子,也有《南京照相馆》的导演申奥,当然也有叫兽易小星,优秀的创作者从草根开始,完成了人生的逆袭。

这次 B 站 AI 创作大赛的获奖者们几乎都有同样的想法,无论是可灵还是 Seedance 或是其他的 AI 工具,都是帮助实现想法和创意的工具,这个工具具有各种各样的优点,但最宝贵的,还是那个想法和创意。

实际上,在后续的媒体采访中,DiDi_OK 说《牌子》的制作只花了 3 天,但剧本的创作花了一个半月。

如果采用实拍和特效制作的方式,这个 7 分多钟的视频很可能需要 30 天,30 人,300 万的成本。AI 不太能帮助 DiDi_OK 减少太多剧本创作的时间,但是能把 30 天 30 人 300 万的时间人力资金成本,压缩到 3 天 1 人 3 万元。

在做《牌子》这个视频之前,DiDi_OK 已经有不少具有很大影响力的 AI 视频了,我们甚至可以从这些视频里看到这位 UP 主是如何从入门到精通 AI 工具,以及 AI 工具本身的进化的。

AI 的叙事就是这样,如果只是一个旁观者,我们很容易陷入到 AI 数字泔水和精细手搓作品的二元对立之中;如果对 AI 浅尝辄止并且不愿付出思考和实践,也会觉得 AI 不过尔尔徒增焦虑罢了;但一旦投入了精力思考和时间,跨过了「先做 10 个垃圾」的节点,后面就会找到与之共生并享受匹配创造力的生产力。

稳中向好。

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港2月零售飙19% 业界忧伊战碍消费 未敢抬前景预测 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

2 April 2026 at 15:15
02/04/2026 - 09:01

香港零售销售额连升十个月,今年 2月的零售额和销货量均大幅上升,当中,货额的临时估值达 350亿港元(下同,折算约 38.7亿欧元),按年升19.3%,远优於市场预期,且是33个月以来最大升幅,主因受去年基数低及农历新年所在月份不同所影响。零售管理协会认为,香港首两个月的消费气氛确有好转,但忧虑中东局势会影响股市及消费气氛,加上港人4月会着长假期北上消费或外游,会维持上半年零售额按年不变的预测。

逾百年老店:港消费及零售市场将持续疲弱

香港消费市场未根本改善的迹象,亦可从在港已有126年历史的先施百货公司看出端倪。公开资料显示,先施今年可能再有分店结业,届时先施的分店数目会由全盛时期的12间,减至只馀旺角一间;另外,集团昨(1日)午发布的独立核数师报告亦表明,对先施持续经营能力产生重大疑虑。集团解释,百货业务主要因应香港消费及零售市场疲弱而须减价促销,导致毛利率下跌,亏损扩大,亦令整个集团的亏蚀在去年扩大至 6410万。管理层预计,香港零售业将继续面对消费及零售市场疲弱,集团会灵活应对挑战,董事会对集团之前景感到乐观。

与先施同日发表数据的,还有港府的统计局。官方指出,由於今年农历新年在2月,去年则在1月,因此作比较时,将1月和2月的零售数字合并分析较为合适。而今年首两个月合计,零售额按年升11.8%,销货量亦增加9.8%。

首两月合升11.8% 业界及分析师均维持原先预测

港府续称,按类别划分,今年首两个月零售额录得最大升幅的,是电器及其他未分类耐用消费品,按年涨32.4%,主要是新手机型号推出市场;而电动车税务宽免於3月底结束,亦推动换车数目增加,令汽车及汽车零件上升28.5%。另外,受惠金价上升刺激,珠宝首饰丶钟表及名贵礼物按年涨27.8%。

展望未来,港府发言人表示,本地经济增长势头强韧,以及访港游客数目上升,预料可继续支持零售业务,但同时会密切留意地缘政治局势的发展,并评估其对本地消费市场的潜在影响。

业界则没有政府般乐观。香港零售管理协会主席谢邱安仪虽认同今年首两个月的零售额升幅算是理想,开局势头向好,但根据3000家店铺和6.7万名员工的会员调查显示,3月份零售市道已回到正常情况,有五成受访会员表示3月份的生意录得升幅,但业界普遍担心中东的局势会影响股市及打击消费气氛和意欲。

她又说,零售商普遍对4月销情谨慎,因为本月有清明及复活节长假,属港人外游高峰期,中国内地游客增加,未必能抵消港人外游影响,零售商一般以加大优惠来应对。但在去年4月超低基数下,逾五成受访会员预期,生意可录得按年升幅;而估计生意下跌的会员,则有逾一成。

总结而言,谢邱安仪估计,现时局势变化较大,协会暂时维持今年上半年零售额按年不变的预测。

另外,大新金融集团首席经济及策略师温嘉炜在新闻稿中表示,中短线而言,本地消费可望维持温和扩张,但同时需关注中东等外围地缘政治局势会否牵连本地经济,暂时维持全年零售额增长5%的预测。

特朗普最新讲话未为伊战降温 油价转升 亚太股市普遍下跌 南韩半日最惨 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

2 April 2026 at 15:15
02/04/2026 - 09:10

美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump,又译川普)在香港时间今(2日)早发表的全国讲话,未能为结束伊朗战争订下时间表,令市场失望,以致石油价格由原先的回落转为抽高,亚太区股市亦普遍低开,至中午收市时,32个股市中,七成半指数下跌,跌幅由0.25%至4.41%不等,当中,韩国股市跌幅最大,上海 B股跌幅最小。

特朗普早前透露,预计美国两至三星期内结束对伊朗的战事,被市场视为停战将临的利好讯号,带动全球股市造好,油价亦显着回落;但事隔一日,他在今早的讲话基本上是旧调重弹,美国《纽约时报》八名跑不同领域新闻的记者在即播特朗普讲话时开启「即时对话」栏,他们纷纷表示,总统讲话没有新意,声称若伊朗不愿达成协议便予以狂轰,但实际上,伊朗深明其优势,不会轻易言退。相反,若特朗普真的攻击当地电网,必然会影响民众生活,法律专定认为,这势必违反日内瓦公约。

受到特朗普最新讲话的影响,布兰特原油期货价格在他19分钟讲话後,已由讲话前的每桶99.8美元,扯高至之後的105美元,之後缓慢攀升至107美元以上。

亚太股市亦普遍下跌,在特朗普讲话後半小时,StockQ平台上的32个股市中,只有七个上升,其馀25个均出现跌市;到了中午收市,升市的股市增多一个,即其八个升市,其馀24个同市均告下跌,当中以韩国跌幅最大,跌4.41%;日本股市跌2.27%,收报52519点,跌1220点;台湾股市亦跌超过 1%。

中国内地和香港股市受的影响较小。内地股市初段向下,跌势持续至中午收市,上证综合指数中午收市报3927点,跌20点,跌幅0.53%;深证成份指数报13548点,跌158点,跌幅1.15%;创业板指数跌幅最大,跌 1.78%。不过,深圳A股和B股均告上升。

香港的恒生指数今早在低开39点之後,便拾级而下,最多时跌 291点,中午收市时险守25000点,半日收报 25017点,跌276点,跌幅约 1.1%,成交1162亿港元。永丰金证券(亚洲)研究部主管麦嘉嘉在电台节目中表示,跌幅显示市场对预期战事结束的希主落空,但成交额只是轻微减少,反映资金以调仓为主,并非撤走。她更相信,讲话的信息会令美国联邦储备局的减息行动押後,将持嫌令科技股受压。

另外,中国传媒《环球市场播报》引述野村全球市场研究主管Robert Subbaraman表示,特朗普讲话未有如市场希望般发出为局势降温的明确讯号,可能令亚洲货币兑美元走弱,如果波动过於迅速,各国央行可能会加强干预行动,若此,便会对国债孳息率带来上行压力。

'We go for all humanity' - emotional scenes as rocket launches

2 April 2026 at 11:09
Watch the moment Artemis II blasts into space on historic mission

Nasa's Artemis II mission thundered away from Florida's coast, taking its four crew members on their historic journey to circle the Moon.

There was a deep rumbling as a sheet of brilliant white flame suddenly erupted, momentarily engulfing the whole launch pad as the mightiest rocket Nasa has ever built rose into the sky.

Nasa's Space Launch System (SLS) majestically crept upwards - slow at first, then gathering pace, riding on two blinding pillars of flame that crackled and roared with increasing volume until the rumbling was almost deafening, a sound we could feel in our bodies as we watched on in amazement, three miles (4.8km) away from the launch pad.

There were small cheers from those in the know as the rocket past the moment of maximum danger - one minute and 10 seconds into the launch. This is where the pressure hits the rocket the hardest, and when engineers know that even a small structural weakness can be disastrous.

There was no weakness, and SLS arced out over the Atlantic like a fiery white angel, leaving a white smoky trail as the sound subsided and the spacecraft disappeared from view, shrinking to a single bright star as it chased the Moon.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Artemis is taking off in the distant background, and people watch, many with tripods. The US flag flutters above them on a flag pole.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Spectators are kept at a safe distance, but the deep rumbling of the rocket launch can still be physically felt

Afterwards, there was a giddy euphoria among staff at the Kennedy Space Center.

One person told me they felt quite emotional and another said they wanted to cry – no doubt a release of tension built up over the past few months when Artemis II came close to launch, but ended up being scrubbed for various reasons.

Tonight, though, Nasa employees were laughing and clapping - this is the moment that they have spent years working towards. There is still work to do, but for now they are bathing in the moment of triumph.

In the hour before take-off there were issues which threatened the launch.

They concerned the launch abort system, which enables Nasa engineers to eject the astronauts and blow up the rocket if there is a malfunction.

The countdown clock was held at 10 minutes while engineers resolved the problem. They worked quickly, but it was an agonising wait to see if the launch could still go ahead.

Then came the staccato rhythm of the calls by each engineer responsible for the rocket's critical systems: "booster, go", "GNC, go", "range, go" – each reply, a tiny release of tension and a build-up of expectation.

"Artemis II, this is launch director," said Charlie Blackwell-Thompson, the first woman to hold the position at Nasa.

"You are go for launch," she told the crew. "We go for all humanity", Commander Reid Wiseman responded.

Cheesy words in normal circumstances, but that was the moment our spines began to tingle and we knew we were about to witness history.

Gerardo Mora/Getty Images A group of people watches the launch, most holding phones or cameras up to the sky.Gerardo Mora/Getty Images
Many thousands of people gathered at viewing locations around the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to watch the launch

The Kennedy Space Center was built to send astronauts to the Moon, but that hasn't happened since 1972 when Apollo 17 blasted off. Today, the centre was back in business, doing what it was made for.

The press corps headed outside, where clouds that had threatened to cancel the launch had evaporated.

As the countdown clock restarted, the atmosphere turned to electric anticipation.

The four RS 25 engines and twin solid rocket boosters lit up, driving more than 8.8 million pounds of thrust into the Florida evening sky.

"God Speed Artemis II" Blackwell-Thompson said in another echo from the past. The same words were used in a launch from here in 1962 to send John Glenn, the first American to orbit the Earth, on his way.

NASA Four astronauts stand side by side inside a cramped white spacecraft or support module, wearing bright orange launch and entry suits with blue trim and mission patches. Their arms are folded confidently across their chests.NASA
On their way to the Moon: Commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor J Glover, and mission specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen

I have been lucky enough to see launches of the Space Shuttle to the International Space Station from the Kennedy Space Center. Those launches are almost as impressive in flight, surging into space with an enormous bang and rising at the speed of a bullet.

But the SLS launch was not only more beautiful, it meant much more: a moment full of emotion for all those who saw it, perhaps because it reminded us of what humanity can do when it comes together, or perhaps because we may be entering a new era of space travel.

In the 1990s, I had the opportunity to speak to Neil Armstrong, who, in 1969, became the first person to ever walk on the moon.

Our discussion came at a time when the dream of human space travel seemed to be over. I asked him whatever happened to that dream? He smiled and said "the reality may have faded but the dream is still there and it will come back in time".

Today was the day the dream returned.

Petrol and diesel prices rise at record rate in March, says RAC

2 April 2026 at 07:59
Getty Images A woman looking at her mobile phone while filling up her car at a petrol stationGetty Images

The jump in the price of oil triggered by the conflict in the Middle East has raised the possibility of higher fuel costs for motorists.

Following the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the price of oil leapt by 10% and gas prices also surged.

The reason for the jump is that Iran has warned vessels not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway in the south of the country through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas is shipped.

If these restrictions persist and oil prices remain high for some time, the worry is this will have knock-on effects on prices of a number of goods.

However, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty at this stage as to whether the conflict will have a lasting effect on the price of oil, gas and wider energy costs.

How quickly will rising oil prices show in fuel prices?

Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher oil prices could eventually drive up prices at the pumps.

The AA motoring group says that over the next few weeks fuel costs could return to where they were at the start of the year.

That would be a change to the general trajectory of fuel prices, which have been falling on UK forecourts over the past few weeks.

Further rises will depend on the magnitude and duration of the conflict, the AA said.

Currently, the average price for petrol is 132.6p a litre and 142.3p for diesel, according to AA data.

Simon Williams, from rival motoring group the RAC, said: "If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136p for petrol.

"At $90, we'd be looking at over 140p a litre and $100 would take us nearer to 150p, but it's all too soon to know."

What could the impact be on food prices?

As well as affecting prices at the pump, if higher fuel costs persist they could have further knock-on effects on the prices of goods on the shelf.

More expensive petrol and diesel will increase the transport costs of those businesses moving food and other goods around the country.

These increased costs might then be passed on by shops and supermarkets to the consumer. As a result, the cost of living goes up.

There might also be a more direct impact on food. "Some elements of crude oil are used in fertiliser, and so there could be a cost implication in terms of food prices," Benjamin Goodwin, partner at banking advisory firm PRISM Strategic Intelligence told the BBC.

However, if the disruption is short lived then it is unlikely to result in an immediate increase in food prices, he said.

Will my energy bills rise?

In the short-term, millions of UK householders' domestic gas and electricity bills are shielded from any impact on wholesale costs paid by suppliers.

People whose energy bills are governed by the price cap already know what their unit prices are now, and will be for the three months from April. They have already been set.

However, the impacts of the conflict could potentially be seen on domestic variable energy tariffs from the subsequent price cap, for the three months from July.

How will this affect UK inflation and interest rates?

UK inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, has eased relative to the heights reached immediately after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

It has meant that the Bank of England has been able to cut interest six times since August 2024 to 3.75%.

The Bank recently said further cuts to borrowing costs are likely this year with another cut widely expected later this month, but if the oil price continues to rise is this now less likely?

Much depends on how long crude prices remain elevated, according to Subitha Subramaniam, chief economist and head of investment strategy at Sarasin & Partners.

If they do, she said: "It will start to cascade into other prices such as food, agriculture, industrial commodities and that's just going to really bleed into inflation."

The Bank's rate-setting committee next meets in a couple of weeks' time which really isn't enough time to assess the impact of higher oil prices on inflation.

So, in the short-term, Subramaniam said: "I would say the prudent course for the Bank of England would be to remain on hold."

New laws to make it easier to cancel subscriptions and get refunds

2 April 2026 at 14:09
Getty Images Close up of a person holding a TV remote, pointing at a smart TVGetty Images
The laws will enable people to cancel subscriptions "with the click of a button".

New laws will make it easier to cancel subscriptions and get refunds for unwanted auto-renewals, the government has said.

A crackdown on "subscription traps" could save the average person nearly £170 a year, according to the Department for Business and Trade (DBT).

Consumers will no longer have to make "endless phone calls" to cancel a subscription, and they will be given a 14-day cooling off period after the end of a trial period, or when an annual subscription automatically renews.

The changes are expected to come in to force in spring 2027.

The laws will enable people to cancel subscriptions "with the click of a button", the DBT said.

Companies will be forced to give clear information upfront to prevent consumers from being "silently rolled onto expensive contracts", it added.

Firms will also have to give customers reminders when a free or discounted trial is about to end, or when contracts that are a year or longer are about to be renewed.

The 14-day cooling off period will allow people to get a "full or proportionate refund" if they forget to cancel after a free trial, or the subscription auto-renews.

The changes could save the public a total of £400m a year, the DBT said.

Kim Biggs from Lincolnshire told BBC News she has been "caught out" by annual subscription fees that renew automatically.

Kim was notified that her free trial of AVG, the anti-virus software was about to end..she said trying to cancel the subscription was "exasperating".

"It took quite a lot of time to wade through all the pages, all the information that was presented when you first clicked onto the 'unsubscribe' part on the website.

"Eventually I clicked on the right options to get an online form to request a refund. I completed this but did not receive my refund."

Kim said the phone number for AVG 's support centre was not easy to find online.

When she did speak to a support agent Kim said she was told "the form that I'd sent in is basically disregarded by them, that you have to speak to them through the support centre to get your refund, which was really annoying".

"I had to keep repeating that I just wanted a refund, as she was very persistent in pushing the products available, trying to get me to change my mind."

The BBC has asked AVG for a comment.

'Nothing more frustrating'

Sue Davies, the head of consumer rights policy at Which?, said subscription traps can "wreak havoc on finances".

"These new rules will help put consumers in the driving seat with proper transparency and protection," she said.

Certain memberships for charitable, cultural and heritage organisations will be excluded from the new rules.

The DBT estimates that there are 10 million unwanted, active subscriptions across the UK.

It said that more than 3.5 million people are being "quietly rolled from free or discounted trials into fully costed contracts", while another 1.3 million are caught out by unexpected auto-renewals.

Elon Musk's SpaceX moves to become a publicly traded company

2 April 2026 at 06:35
Reuters Elon Musk waving to a crowd from a stage wearing a black blazer and a black t-shirt.Reuters

Elon Musk's SpaceX is poised to become one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.

The company, which manufactures rockets, space exploration technology and Starlink satellites, is currently privately held. But on Wednesday it made a confidential filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering, which would allow shares to be traded in the stock market.

The value of SpaceX once it goes public is expected to surpass $1tn (£751bn). That would make its eventual stock market debut one of the most financially significant in history.

Musk's own holding in SpaceX would put the billionaire on track to become the world's first trillionaire.

The BBC has contacted SpaceX for comment.

The company is aiming to officially go public sometime in June, according to reports in Bloomberg, Reuters and the New York Times.

A confidential IPO filing with the SEC allows a company to avoid immediately revealing information to the public while it requests feedback from the regulator. The next step will be for company executives to hold "roadshows" - meetings with big investors to convince them to buy shares.

By making shares of SpaceX available for purchase by the public, the company is looking to raise $50bn or more, according to the reports.

Earlier this year, SpaceX took over xAI, Musk's artificial intelligence venture. After that all-stock merger, SpaceX is believed to have become the most valuable private company in the world, with an internal valuation of $1.25tn.

Recently, Musk's various companies have been becoming increasingly intertwined.

Last year, xAI, best known for its chatbot Grok, took over X, the social media platform previously called Twitter that Musk bought in 2022.

This degree of consolidation was a clear sign to investors that SpaceX was preparing to go public.

Emily Zheng, a senior analyst at Pitchbook, earlier told the BBC that by bringing xAI under SpaceX, Musk could show potential investors that he was consolidating costs and able to easily share resources between his companies.

With its large-scale ambitions, SpaceX is in need of a massive cash infusion that going public can provide, Zheng added. The company is racing to keep up with the "sheer cost of compute, infrastructure, and energy" needed to expand, she said.

Earlier this year, Tesla, Musk's electric vehicle company, revealed it had invested more than $2bn in xAI.

The billionaire said a significant share of Tesla's manufacturing would begin to shift toward building robots, which would make use of xAI technology like Grok.

Grok is already included in some Teslas as an AI assistant.

SpaceX would also partner with Tesla and xAI in the massive chipmaking endeavour Musk announced last month, which he is calling Terafab.

"Tesla, xAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things that people did not think could be done before," Musk said in a March presentation discussing Terafab.

Musk started SpaceX in 2002 with the aim of reducing the cost of launching crafts into space, mainly by making rockets that could be launched more than once. It first contracted with Nasa in 2006.

Today, most of SpaceX's work continues to revolve around rockets and the operation of Starlink, a fleet of satellites offering internet connectivity across the globe.

But Musk often discusses grander ambitions for the company, including putting data centers needed for AI in space and building a self-sufficient city on Mars, which many experts have said could be impossible to realise.

Utah teen identified as victim of serial killer Ted Bundy

2 April 2026 at 06:35
Police handout Laura Aimee, in a school photo from the 1970s. She has long brown hair parted down the middle and brown eyes, and wears a patterned blouse. Police handout

Officials in Utah have formally closed a 51-year-old cold case after using new DNA technology to identify a murdered teenager as a victim of serial killer Ted Bundy.

Laura Ann Aime, 17, disappeared after leaving a party on Halloween in 1974. Her body was discovered about one month later by hikers in the American Fork Canyon.

On Wednesday, the Utah County Sheriff's Office announced that new testing "confirmed irrefutably that DNA evidence recovered from Laura's body verified the existence of DNA belonging to Bundy".

Between February 1974 and February 1978 Bundy murdered at least 30 women. He has also been linked to many more killings throughout the country.

Before he was executed in Florida in 1989, Bundy confessed to Laura's killing, but since he would not elaborate or give any detail to his actual involvement in her death, "the Sheriff's Department elected to keep this case open until investigators could prove, without a shadow of doubt", that he was her killer, the sheriff said in a statement.

"This case is now officially closed," Utah County Sheriff Mike Smith declared during a news conference, according to The Salt Lake Tribune.

The sheriff added that if Bundy were still alive, prosecutors would pursue the death penalty against him.

Bundy is among America's most infamous serial killers, and began his spree by attacking victims throughout the Pacific Northwest of the US. He later killed victims in Colorado, Utah and Florida.

At the time of Laura's death, he was living in Salt Lake City and studying law at the University of Utah.

The sheriff's statement said Laura is remembered as an "outgoing free spirit who enjoyed outdoor activities and shared a passion for riding horses, hunting, and caring for her several siblings".

Getty Images (Original Caption) Miami, FLA.: Theodore Bundy, seated in court, charged with the killings of two FSU coeds.
Getty Images

Bundy was known to often approach women in public places, gain their trust with his charm or a fake injury, and then lure them to secluded areas and kill them.

He was first arrested in 1975 for kidnapping a woman and sentenced to 15 years in jail.

But in 1977 he escaped by jumping out of a prison library window.

He was recaptured for eight days and then escaped again, continuing to kill until he was finally caught in 1978.

Magnitude 7.4 earthquake hits off Indonesia, killing one

2 April 2026 at 12:00
Reuters A resident inspects the damage at a sports complex in ManadoReuters
While the region sees high levels of seismic activity, some say this was one of the strongest quakes they've experienced in recent years

A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck in the Molucca Sea off Indonesia's Ternate island early Thursday, killing at least one person.

The quake, which struck at 06:48 local time (22:48 GMT) at a depth of 35km, sparked tsunami warnings which have since been withdrawn.

A 70-year-old woman in North Sulawesi died after being crushed by building debris, and another person broke their leg after jumping off a building, Indonesia's national news agency Antara reported.

While the region experiences high levels of seismic activity, some residents told the BBC this was one of the strongest earthquakes they have felt in at least the past six years.

The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially warned that tsunami waves less than 0.3m (1 ft) "were possible" along the coasts of Guam, Japan, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Taiwan. The tsunami alert was lifted after two hours.

Journalist Isvara Safitri, who lives in central Manado, recalled how furniture in her room shook for several seconds.

"It was really strong... My head even felt dizzy," Safitri told BBC Indonesian.

Even the roads outside the house were shaking, she said, adding that the earthquake "feels like the strongest" she's experienced over the past six years.

Yayuk Oktiani, who lives in Bitung, a city on the north-eastern coast of Sulawesi, said she often experiences tremors, "but they're never as strong as this one".

Oktiani was at the market when "everything started shaking". Several stores experienced power outages and as the tremors got stronger, people fled, she told the BBC.

She headed straight for her child's school, which is located "very close" to the sea.

"The situation there was chaotic... The teachers immediately told parents to bring their children home, even though they had only just arrived," she told the BBC.

In Ternate, resident Budi Nurgianto said the walls in his house vibrated for what felt like more than a minute. He rushed outside, into a scene of panic.

"There were many people outside... I even saw some people leaving their house without having finished their shower," he told AFP news agency.

Manado and Bitung are located on the island of Sulawesi, while Ternate is a volcanic island in the North Maluku province.

Abd Rahman Muchtar Parts of the Siloam Hospital have been badly damagedAbd Rahman Muchtar
Parts of the Siloam Hospital have been badly damaged

The epicentre of the quake was roughly midway between Manado and Ternate.

At least two aftershocks, with magnitudes 5.5 and 5.2, followed the major quake, with authorities warning of more to come.

The national geological agency reported "damage to buildings and injuries" about an hour after the initial tremor, but did not provide further detail.

Footage from a search and rescue team in Manado shows residents and officials walking through the rubble at a sports complex, with some shouting "oh my God".

Large pieces of furniture were flung onto the ground, with some metallic structures bent out of shape.

A patient at Siloam Hospital in Manado recalled the frantic efforts to evacuate staff and patients.

"We were sitting there drinking tea... [Initially we] didn't realise it was an earthquake. And then we heard a child scream, 'Come down, hurry up,' " said Admini, 69.

Nurses and doctors quickly set up makeshift treatment areas, out in the open and inside vehicles.

"Everyone was huddled together outside," Admini said. "Some were in wheelchairs, others were helping each other."

Additional reporting by Heyder Affan in Jakarta

Alleged Bondi gunman loses court bid to suppress names of his family

2 April 2026 at 09:08
Rocco Fazzari/Getty Images A court sketch of a man with shaved head and green t-shirt with his head bowed.Rocco Fazzari/Getty Images
A sketch shows alleged Bondi gunman Naveed Akram at a court hearing last month

The alleged Bondi gunman has lost his court bid to suppress the names and addresses of his mother, brother and sister due to fears over their safety.

Lawyers for Naveed Akram - who is facing 59 charges over December's attack on a Jewish festival on Bondi Beach that killed 15 people - argued that his family could be targeted by vigilantes and had already experienced abuse.

Last month, details of Akram's family were suppressed under an interim order but on Thursday, a Sydney court lifted it after several media outlets opposed the move.

The case had attracted "unprecedented" attention in Australia and globally, the judge ruled, and information about the family was already widely available online.

"This case has unprecedented public interest, outrage, anger and grief," Judge Hugh Donnelly told the court.

He said the request for a suppression order lasting 40 years did not meet the exceptional circumstances threshold and would have limited impact as it would only apply in Australia and not social media platforms or international media outlets.

The judge said the case was "exceptional by virtue of the sheer magnitude and intensity of the commentary" on overseas platforms, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).

Donnelly said it was "unfortunate" that Akram's driver's licence had already been posted online but that his lawyers had not properly explained how an order could be enforced.

He also said he was not critical of an interview that Akram's mother gave to a local outlet but that suppressing her identity would do little, the ABC reported.

On the names and workplaces of Akram's siblings, the court said they were unlikely to be part of any court proceedings as they had "little relevance to the case".

Akram, 24, appeared in court via video link from the high security prison where he is being held.

During a hearing last month, the court heard that people had driven past Akram's family home, shouting abuse and death threats.

Family members also reported receiving threatening texts and phone calls.

"We live in constant fear someone will harm us or set our house on fire. I fear for my life and the lives of my children," Akram's mother wrote in a statement.

Lawyers for the media organisations who opposed the suppression order argued that the details of his family were already widely known and there was no evidence of an imminent risk to them, according to the Guardian Australia.

Trump leaves key questions unanswered as he seeks to calm nerves over Iran war

2 April 2026 at 11:22
Trump says US "on the cusp" of ending Iran war in televised address

President Donald Trump's address from the White House on Wednesday evening was - despite some speculation beforehand - largely a rehash of what he has been saying for days about the Iran war.

In a 20-minute primetime speech, he said the "core strategic objectives" of the US-Israeli military operation were "nearing completion" after a month of war and projected it would last another two to three weeks.

There were the usual threats against Iran, too, including a repeated pledge to bomb the country "back to the stone age".

If you were to copy and paste his posts on Truth Social over the last week or so, you would not be far off this address to the nation.

The president did attempt to persuade Americans of the merits of this war. There is good reason for that, as polls suggest a consistent majority of voters disapprove of the military operation he launched on 28 February.

Trump urged Americans to see this war as an "investment" in their future, and suggested it was nothing compared to other conflicts over the past century or more in which the US has ended up being involved for far longer.

But there was little here for those hoping for clear answers on where this war is heading or potential exit ramps for the US. There were glaring omissions which leave a plethora of questions unanswered.

Firstly, Israel is still attacking Iran and taking incoming drone and missile attacks – including earlier on Wednesday in Tel Aviv just hours before the beginning of Passover.

A key question is whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government agrees with the timetable of a few more weeks that was provided by Trump. We simply do not know at this point in time.

Secondly, what happened to the 15-point peace plan the White House was urging Iran to accept just days ago? There was no mention of it by Trump on Wednesday night. Is Washington now ditching many of those demands, including the retrieval of its stockpile of enriched uranium?

That, too, is unclear.

Former Nato ambassador: 'Lack of clarity' in Trump's war aims

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's busiest oil shipping channels which has been effectively closed off by Iran, is a central issue in this conflict.

The president, however, does not appear to have a settled view on it.

One moment he is demanding Iran allow tankers through, and the next he is telling allies to go and sort it out for themselves. "Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves," he said on Wednesday. "The hard part is done, so it should be easy."

He then simply said, without expanding further, that the strait would reopen "naturally" when the war was over. That is unlikely to reassure those concerned about oil prices.

Trump's pointed criticism of some allies - he said at one point that they should "build up some delayed courage" and lead an operation to reopen the strait - came after he floated the idea of pulling out of the Nato military alliance in an interview earlier on Wednesday.

But that rhetoric was completely absent from this speech, despite briefings suggesting it would be a key part of his words tonight.

'Something needs to be done' - Americans struggle as gas prices surge

Another key unanswered question relates to ground troops. What are the thousands of marines and paratroopers actually going to be doing in the region as they continue to arrive?

The truth is that after this national address, we are really none the wiser about what the president sees as victory in this war.

And given the often conflicting nature of his statements from one day to the next, everything could change at any time.

Meanwhile, the average price of gas in the US has topped $4 for the first time in nearly four years and the president's approval ratings are cratering, just months before the crucial midterm elections which will determine control of Congress.

This is a US president looking for a way out of this war – and he is still casting about to find one.

Magnitude 7.4 earthquake hits off Indonesia, killing one

2 April 2026 at 12:00
Reuters A resident inspects the damage at a sports complex in ManadoReuters
While the region sees high levels of seismic activity, some say this was one of the strongest quakes they've experienced in recent years

A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck in the Molucca Sea off Indonesia's Ternate island early Thursday, killing at least one person.

The quake, which struck at 06:48 local time (22:48 GMT) at a depth of 35km, sparked tsunami warnings which have since been withdrawn.

A 70-year-old woman in North Sulawesi died after being crushed by building debris, and another person broke their leg after jumping off a building, Indonesia's national news agency Antara reported.

While the region experiences high levels of seismic activity, some residents told the BBC this was one of the strongest earthquakes they have felt in at least the past six years.

The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially warned that tsunami waves less than 0.3m (1 ft) "were possible" along the coasts of Guam, Japan, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Taiwan. The tsunami alert was lifted after two hours.

Journalist Isvara Safitri, who lives in central Manado, recalled how furniture in her room shook for several seconds.

"It was really strong... My head even felt dizzy," Safitri told BBC Indonesian.

Even the roads outside the house were shaking, she said, adding that the earthquake "feels like the strongest" she's experienced over the past six years.

Yayuk Oktiani, who lives in Bitung, a city on the north-eastern coast of Sulawesi, said she often experiences tremors, "but they're never as strong as this one".

Oktiani was at the market when "everything started shaking". Several stores experienced power outages and as the tremors got stronger, people fled, she told the BBC.

She headed straight for her child's school, which is located "very close" to the sea.

"The situation there was chaotic... The teachers immediately told parents to bring their children home, even though they had only just arrived," she told the BBC.

In Ternate, resident Budi Nurgianto said the walls in his house vibrated for what felt like more than a minute. He rushed outside, into a scene of panic.

"There were many people outside... I even saw some people leaving their house without having finished their shower," he told AFP news agency.

Manado and Bitung are located on the island of Sulawesi, while Ternate is a volcanic island in the North Maluku province.

Abd Rahman Muchtar Parts of the Siloam Hospital have been badly damagedAbd Rahman Muchtar
Parts of the Siloam Hospital have been badly damaged

The epicentre of the quake was roughly midway between Manado and Ternate.

At least two aftershocks, with magnitudes 5.5 and 5.2, followed the major quake, with authorities warning of more to come.

The national geological agency reported "damage to buildings and injuries" about an hour after the initial tremor, but did not provide further detail.

Footage from a search and rescue team in Manado shows residents and officials walking through the rubble at a sports complex, with some shouting "oh my God".

Large pieces of furniture were flung onto the ground, with some metallic structures bent out of shape.

A patient at Siloam Hospital in Manado recalled the frantic efforts to evacuate staff and patients.

"We were sitting there drinking tea... [Initially we] didn't realise it was an earthquake. And then we heard a child scream, 'Come down, hurry up,' " said Admini, 69.

Nurses and doctors quickly set up makeshift treatment areas, out in the open and inside vehicles.

"Everyone was huddled together outside," Admini said. "Some were in wheelchairs, others were helping each other."

Additional reporting by Heyder Affan in Jakarta

US Supreme Court appears sceptical of Trump plan to limit birthright citizenship

2 April 2026 at 06:00
Protesters rally outside Supreme Court as justices hear birthright citizenship case

The Supreme Court appeared sceptical of President Donald Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship, a sign the high court could strike down a key element of his immigration agenda.

A majority of the court's justices on Wednesday seemed unconvinced that the US should stop granting citizenship to children of undocumented immigrants and some temporary US visitors.

The administration has argued that its effort to limit birthright citizenship is necessary to help rein in illegal immigration. Opponents argue it would upend more than a century of precedent and unravel a cornerstone of US immigration law enshrined by the 14th Amendment.

Trump attended the oral arguments in person on Wednesday, a rare move by a sitting president that underscored the high stakes of the case.

A defeat for Trump would mark a second straight setback at the high court, following the decision last month that invalidated the president's global tariffs. A win would help Trump deliver on his pledge to reshape America's immigration policies.

During more than two hours of arguments, U.S. Solicitor General John Sauer sought to convince the justices that the 14th Amendment - which establishes the concept of birthright citizenship and was extended formerly to enslaved people - and subsequent court rulings and laws passed by Congress all mistakenly expanded birthright citizenship.

Chief Justice John Roberts, a key swing vote on the court, questioned Trump's authority to exclude the children of undocumented immigrants from receiving US citizenship.

"I'm not quite sure how you can get to that big group," Roberts said.

The oral arguments turned on a key clause in the 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to all people born or naturalized in the US who are "subject to the jurisdiction thereof."

Bauer argued that the clause should only apply to the children of foreign diplomats and a few other limited groups. Parents who are in the country illegally when their children are born have "allegiance" to their home countries and therefore don't fall under the jurisdiction of US law, he said.

"Jurisdiction means allegiance," Sauer said. Citing a previous court opinion, he later argued that "permanent residence and domicile decides [citizenship]. That's what the court should be bound by."

But several justices said that interpretation would fundamentally reshape how Americans and people living around the world understand the US birthright citizenship process.

Justice Elena Kagan said the administration was seeking to undo a legal tradition of birthright citizenship that dates back to English common law. "What the 14th Amendment did was accept that tradition and not attempt to put any limitations on it. That was the clear rationale," Kagan said.

REUTERS/Kylie Cooper TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY Demonstrators hold letters making up the slogan "Born in the USA = citizen!" outside the U.S. Supreme Court building  REUTERS/Kylie Cooper TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Several justices also pointed to the 1898 Supreme Court ruling, United States v. Wong Kim Ark, the landmark decision that upheld birthright citizenship in the case of a child born to Chinese immigrants living in the US.

Cecillia Wang, an ACLU attorney representing the plaintiffs in court on Wednesday, used the decision to argue that Trump's executive order should be overturned.

"If we agree with you how to read Wong Kim Ark, then you win," Justice Brett Kavanaugh said. "That could be just a short opinion."

Whether the court ultimately issues a broad or narrow opinion remains to be seen. The difference between a sweeping ruling on constitutional grounds versus a more tailored opinion on statutory grounds is a critical one, legal experts said.

The justices could choose to focus on a 1952 law passed by Congress that codified birthright citizenship and not wade into the larger constitutional debate, said Stephen Yale-Loehr, an immigration law expert.

"The court does not like to rule on constitutional issues if it doesn't have to," Yale-Loehr said. "The court could argue that the Trump executive order is invalid on statutory grounds."

The court is expected to issue its decision in June. It would be the first major immigration case decided by the court on its merits since Trump started his second term. The court has taken up other immigration cases, but has so far sent them back to lower courts for further review.

Trump's push to end birthright citizenship is one part of his larger immigration crackdown. But it's nevertheless a longtime goal of many on the right, and something Trump has supported since his first term in office. A victory in this case would help Trump make the case that he is delivering on his campaign pledge to limit illegal immigration.

A loss would be a setback to Trump's immigration agenda. But it would also represent a larger blow to his efforts to aggressively expand executive power since returning to office. The ruling in February overturning Trump's sweeping global tariffs showed the justices are not willing to give Trump a blank check to bypass Congress and the courts.

Trump signaled his interest in the case by attending the oral arguments on Wednesday. Critics said his appearance was an improper effort to influence the court ahead of a decision that will have major repercussions for his domestic policy agenda.

"We are the only Country in the World STUPID enough to allow 'Birthright' Citizenship!" Trump said incorrectly on social media after leaving the court.

退休了就去徒步吧|被临时封禁的七天里,反思我一个纯徒步的公众号,是怎么踩中雷点的?

2 April 2026 at 14:00
CDT 档案卡
标题:被临时封禁的七天里,反思我一个纯徒步的公众号,是怎么踩中雷点的?
作者:退休了就去徒步吧
发表日期:2026.3.23
来源:微信公众号“退休了就去徒步吧”
主题归类:404经验
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

这个账号是在去年创建的,2024年的时候,我开始沉迷户外徒步,尤其是高海拔的川西,云南,西藏。

去了之后,回来还是念念不忘,身边的人很多都不理解,为什么偏要喜欢去那些“鸟不拉屎”的,没信号的地方。

我自己也无法解释,为了突破自己?为了猎奇刺激?还是冥冥中的吸引力?

为了这份不可知,我想到了用文字来记录的方式,把这些过程记录下来,在记录的过程中,有回味,有思索,也有反思。即便是为了年老后的回忆,也是值得。

就这样陆陆续续写了几十篇,慢慢的有几篇文章被推荐,被看见,也有了一定的关注度,一度我还沾沾自喜,以为是自己的文笔好。

直到上周,因为一篇关于进藏路线的文章突然引发了流量的关注,随着评论区里留言增加,触发了平台的监管红线。

于是,一记闷棍砸下来

image

当时是百思不可其解,更是觉得万分冤枉。

去申诉,被无情驳回。

后来,冷静下来,反思自己,确实活该!

评论区的言论,作者本人有责任监管,有义务屏蔽,不能说不是作者本人的言论就事不关己,甚至当发现因为评论区热闹而引起了流量推荐还沾沾自喜。

所以,流量这个事情,千万要警惕。

今天账号终于解禁回来了,但是流量肯定没了,推荐没了。这也罢了,最可惜的是因为受过平台的处罚,这个账号再也抹不去这个记录,成为了一个永远的伤疤,一个犯过错的账号,历史不再清白。

以后写文章的积极性也会受到影响,什么话不能说,什么评论要屏蔽,这都在考验账号的运营者。

进入游戏,就要遵守游戏规则。

image

以此为戒。

image

今年的春天,依然美丽的另文字无法描述,希望你们的心情也如这春天,温暖而充满了生机。

记得关注我,点赞助力,多谢


以下评论由CDT辑自网络:

浪淘沙:到底是触发什么敏感词了?

退休了就去徒步吧:一张封面配图

第五封荒原来信:什么样的配图会被封呢?

退休了就去徒步吧:不是配图有问题,是因为有读者看到配图上面的字不爽,就在评论区说了敏感词

Buying a used Mac

By: hoakley
2 April 2026 at 14:30

Macs are well known for their longevity, and are substantially cheaper when purchased used. This is a good time to consider buying a used Mac, as prices for Intel models are continuing to fall, and earlier Apple silicon models are becoming more widely available. However, buying any used computer is higher risk than buying new. This article explains how to reduce that risk.

Official refurbs

If you’re looking for discounted recent models, then the best place is Apple’s refurb store, in your local version of this page. These should be effectively as new, and include relatively recent models, but you’re unlikely to make big savings here. They’re ideal if you enjoy unboxing, as refurbs ship in their standard packaging.

Resellers

Most countries have retailers who specialise in preparing and selling used Macs. Among the best known are:

These are staffed by Apple-trained technicians who check each Mac thoroughly. They offer a wider range of models, many of them at highly affordable prices. Most offer a return period, as well as a one-year warranty, and are subject to local consumer protection law.

Private vendors

My one and only golden rule is never to buy a used Mac without seeing it in the flesh beforehand. That bargain a thousand miles away could turn out to have been stolen, and even if it’s genuine you could still end up with a useless Mac. I’ve never heard of anyone buying a house or car without seeing it for themselves, and a Mac should be no different. I suppose it’s feasible to go through the following checks over FaceTime or Zoom, but there are so many skilled con artists around I wouldn’t risk it.

When you arrive and see the Mac you’re about to purchase, work systematically through the following.

Provenance

Your first and most important question is whether this Mac is the seller’s to start with. The best answer comes in the form of its original proof of purchase, giving its serial number. Check that matches the serial number in Hardware Overview in System Information. If it doesn’t, then thank them politely and leave as quickly as you can. While you’re looking in that section, if the Mac has a T2 or Apple silicon chip, at the foot of that information you’ll see its Activation Lock Status: if that’s enabled, make a careful note, as you’ll need to get that disabled before you take your new Mac away. Intel Macs without T2 chips don’t have that to worry about.

Establishing provenance gets more complicated if that Mac has had more than one previous owner, but the current owner should ideally have a chain of bills of sale to reassure you. If they don’t, then that Mac may well have a murky past that could catch up with you.

Condition

Once you have confidence that you’re dealing with the real owner of the Mac, check it out as thoroughly as you can, without rushing or stripping it down to its logic board. A careful and undistracted visual examination is important, and gives clues through its general cleanliness as to how well it has been cared for.

It would be comforting to run hardware diagnostics just in case, although that’s not a particularly sensitive check for incipient problems. In ideal circumstances you’d want to check wear and any errors on its internal SSD using DriveDx or another SMART utility, but you’re unlikely to get the chance. If you have a friend who is a hardware technician, they could be a real boon to take along, just as you should take a good mechanic when you check out a used car.

AppleCare

If the current owner has AppleCare cover on that Mac, they should in most cases be able to transfer that with its sale. This requires them to sign into My Support for the agreement number and details, and with the original sales receipt for that Mac, to contact Apple Support and give them your details as the new owner. Apple explains this here, with useful onward links.

Haggle

I wish you success in agreeing the best price.

Activation Lock (Intel T2, Apple silicon)

The last hurdle in a successful purchase is the one most often forgotten, and the cause of much buyer remorse. It’s all the fault of Activation Lock and Find My Mac. These ensure that the owner’s Apple ID and password are required before that Mac can be used, erased, or Find My Mac disabled. In effect they make that Mac useless to anyone else until Activation Lock has been disabled.

Macs with T2 or Apple silicon chips running Catalina or later, where the user has 2FA on their Apple ID, are likely to be protected by Activation Lock. There is an additional requirement, depending on their architecture:

  • Apple silicon Macs must have their security policy set to Full Security;
  • Intel T2 Macs must have startup security set to Secure Boot, with booting from external drives disallowed.

Activation Lock is most commonly enabled when Find My Mac is turned on, and turning that off also disables Activation Lock. That requires entry of the current user’s Apple ID password, so must be done by the seller before they part with their Mac.

There are other ways to disable it:

  • It’s automatically disabled when the owner runs Erase All Content and Settings, only available on T2 and Apple silicon models anyway.
  • Activation lock can be disabled in the owner’s account at www[.]iCloud[.]com/find by removing that Mac from the list of All Devices there.
  • If you have proof of purchase, you can request Activation Lock to be removed by Apple support, but that’s a last measure and not something you should ever choose.

Apple’s guidance is here.

Never take possession of someone else’s Mac while its Activation Lock is active, as it will only cause you trouble and grief.

Handover

If everything is going well, you should be ready for the Mac to be handed over to your possession, accompanied by a written record of the sale. The conclusion is best seen as a mutual arrangement, as it gives the seller confidence that any data on that Mac is completely erased, and you the confidence that you’re about to gain a Mac you can use.

eacas

If it’s an Intel Mac, confirm with one another that it starts up without requiring a firmware password. If it has a T2 or Apple silicon chip, use its Erase All Content and Settings together to ensure that all its old files are made unreadable, and to be certain that Find My Mac and Activation Lock are disabled. Sadly, erasing older Intel Macs without T2 chips is a slower and more complicated process.

Checklist
  • Inspect the Mac before handing over any money.
  • Check proof of purchase and serial number, noting Activation Lock status.
  • Visual examination, check SSD health if possible.
  • Agree the price.
  • Transfer AppleCare if available.
  • Disable Activation Lock (in EACAS if available).
  • Obtain written record of sale.
  • Ensure no firmware password (Intel only).
  • Erase, preferably using EACAS where available.

Iran War Showcases Strength of South Korean Defense Sector

Missile interceptors made by the South Korean firm LIG Nex1 are said to be performing well, at a small fraction of the cost of U.S. interceptors.

© Chris Jung/NurPhoto, via Associated Press

Cheongung-II, a South Korean air defense system, on display last year. The country’s defense companies are rapidly taking on new business, as U.S. firms struggle to keep pace with demand from multiple conflicts.

惹众怒!Anthropic 疯狂删库,他连夜爆改 Claude Code 源码拿下史上最快 10 万星

By: 莫崇宇
2 April 2026 at 13:53

凌晨四点,韩国开发者 Sigrid Jin(instructkr)被手机震醒。

消息铺天盖地:Claude Code 的底层源码被泄露了,开发者们正在疯狂转发、下载、存档。他的消息列表里全是同一件事。他也在第一时间拿到了那份代码,并上传到 GitHub 仓库。

但未经授权持有、传播一家公司的专有源码,在美国版权法框架下,完全可能构成侵权。他的女朋友也提醒他:你可能要被起诉了。

思考过后,他打开 OpenAI 的 Codex,连夜用 Python 从头重写了一遍,推上了 GitHub。2 小时,突破 50K。单日,超过 110K,成为 GitHub 史上增速最快的项目。

马没跑,马鞍丢了

事情发生在 2026 年 3 月 31 日。

Anthropic 在推送 Claude Code 更新时,打包出了问题。一个本不该公开的文件类型被上传到了 GitHub,这个文件指向内部源码,外人可以直接下载、直接阅读。

正常情况下,Claude Code 的源码是经过混淆处理的,逆向极其困难。但这一次,保护层消失了。

一个名为 Chaofan Shou 的 X 用户最先注意到这件事,截图发出,消息开始指数级扩散。几小时内,开发者们在 GitHub 上创建了超过 8000 份拷贝和衍生版本,每个人都在争分夺秒地把这份代码保存下来。

而要理解这次事件的严重性,需要先搞清楚泄露的是什么。

Claude Code 的底层,是 Anthropic 的 AI 模型,这部分没有泄露。泄露的,是套在模型之上的 harness。

如果说,AI 模型是一匹马,harness 是缰绳和马鞍。模型提供原始能力,harness 决定骑手能否真正驾驭它、指挥它干活。Claude Code 之所以能让开发者用得顺手、效率极高,靠的正是这套精心设计的 harness 体系。

这里面,包含 Anthropic 在工具调用、任务编排、上下文管理、模型行为调校上的全部积累。因此,竞争对手和无数开发者拿到的,是一张无需逆向工程的完整设计图。

后续,Anthropic 的发言人随即回应:此次泄露「没有暴露任何客户数据」,也「没有泄露模型的权重参数」。公司声明将其定性为「打包时的人为失误,不是安全漏洞」,并表示正在推出措施防止重演。

Claude Code 之父 Boris Cherny 也在 X 上简短留言,确认这只是「开发者的操作失误」。

消息发酵后,马斯克也来凑了个热闹,转发网友调侃 Anthropic 现在比 OpenAI 更开放的帖子,并留下一句「太绝了😂」。

DMCA 出手,先误伤了无辜

面对失控的传播,Anthropic 启动了 DMCA 删除程序。

DMCA,即《数字千年版权法》(Digital Millennium Copyright Act),是美国版权保护的主要武器。版权方向平台发出删除通知,平台需在审核后响应,否则可能连带承担侵权责任。

GitHub 作为平台,必须处理这些请求。

Anthropic 初始提交的 DMCA 请求,覆盖了超过 8000 个 GitHub 账号。随后,自己意识到范围过大,把请求收窄到了 96 个账号。

但伤害已经造成。比如开发者 Theo(YouTube 频道 t3.gg 主理人)被「DMCA」了。他的仓库里,根本没有任何泄露的 Claude Code 源码。唯一的关联,是他几周前编辑过一个 skill 的 PR(Pull Request),仅此而已。

「这不是愚人节玩笑,这是对法律的违反,我会全力抗争,」Theo 在 X 上写道,并点名 GitHub,要求撤销 Anthropic 的删除请求。

几小时后,他的仓库恢复了,但他没有收到任何通知。Theo 最终发了一条跟进推文:「看起来像是真实的失误,他们也迅速处理了。」

DMCA 的滥用问题,在开源圈由来已久。

2020 年,RIAA 向 GitHub 发出 DMCA 通知,指控 youtube-dl 绕过 YouTube 的版权保护机制,GitHub 随即下架了该仓库。事后电子前沿基金会(EFF)介入,证明投诉方误读了技术和法律,仓库最终恢复。

GitHub 随后设立了 100 万美元防御基金,专门帮助开发者应对错误的 DMCA 投诉。这一次,Anthropic 这次的大范围误伤,多少让整个开源社区有种似曾相识的愤怒。

维权的节奏,被 AI 降维打击

尽管开发者 Sigrid Jin 的重写行为本身是有争议的,从法律风险规避的角度看,至少比持有原始代码更安全。

他用的工具叫 oh-my-codex(OmX),@bellman_ych 开发的一个工作流框架,底层跑在 OpenAI Codex 上。原始的 TypeScript 代码库约有 51.2 万行,体量不小。

他开了两个模式同时推进:$team 负责并行代码审查,$ralph 负责持续执行和架构验证,迅速完成了从 TypeScript 到 Python 的整体重写。

并且他号称全程没有复制一行原始代码。

这里有个法律上的基本逻辑:版权只保护代码本身的写法,不保护背后的思路和设计。你把一个系统的架构摸清楚了,换一种语言重新实现出来,就像看完一本菜谱,自己下厨做出来,厨师管不着你。

目前,Rust 版本已经在 dev/rust 分支上动工,API 客户端、运行时、工具执行框架、斜杠命令、插件模型这些模块都在计划里。

Sigrid Jin 的仓库最早发的是直接复制的原始代码,上线瞬间,star 数量几乎垂直拉升,2 小时突破 5 万,创下 GitHub 平台有史以来最快达成该里程碑的纪录。

这个 stars 增长速度有多夸张,拿同期的 OpenClaw 来比就清楚了。

OpenClaw 已经是这个时代增速最快的开源项目之一,一个本地 AI agent 框架,在 2026 年 3 月初积累了超过 30 万 GitHub stars,超过了 React 的 24.3 万和 Linux 的 22 万。

React 跑了 13 年,Linux 跑了 35 年,OpenClaw 用了不到 100 天。而就目前的增速来看,claw-code 比 OpenClaw 还快,而且快得多。

更重要的是,AI 的介入也让今天开发者社区的复制、传播、重写速度,已经快到让版权武器有些跟不上节奏了。DMCA 能删掉 8000 个仓库,但删不掉工程师脑子里已经消化掉的架构思路。

以前,把「理解」变成「可运行的代码」需要相当的时间和人力成本,这个时间差,某种意义上是版权执法的窗口期。现在这个窗口几乎关闭了。

理解一套系统的架构,然后用 AI 辅助重写,几个小时就能完成。法律的节奏,和代码传播的节奏,已经完全不在同一个时间维度上。

Claude Code 源码传播到这个量级,早已超出任何版权手段能覆盖的范围。

对 Anthropic 来说,源码泄露本身已经是一件棘手的事。更棘手的,是两层叠加的麻烦。

第一层,是技术上的暴露。harness 的设计细节、dreaming 怎么压缩记忆、undercover mode 什么时候触发、工具调用怎么编排,这些原本的内部设计,现在摆在所有人面前,供所有人参考、复现、改进。

第二层,是形象上的裂痕。Anthropic 走到今天,最引以为傲的就是「负责任的 AI」这块金字招牌。企业客户敢把数据交给它,投资人愿意给出千亿估值,都建立在这个人设之上。但这次乱挥大棒,不仅暴露了技术底牌,更让这块招牌添上了一道难以抹平的划痕。

今年愚人节,Anthropic 送出了最贵的一份礼物。

#欢迎关注爱范儿官方微信公众号:爱范儿(微信号:ifanr),更多精彩内容第一时间为您奉上。

5 Takeaways From Trump’s Address on Iran

President Trump did not define a clear path out of the conflict, which he estimated would end within three weeks.

© Pool photo by Alex Brandon

President Trump giving a prime-time address from the White House on Wednesday.

【404文库】水瓶纪元|信疑两茫茫:重访“李星星”案援助者

2 April 2026 at 12:33
CDT 档案卡
标题:信疑两茫茫:重访“李星星”案援助者
作者:水瓶纪元-费顿
发表日期:2020.9.21
来源:网易-水瓶纪元
主题归类:“李星星”案
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

CDT编者按:最近,原财新记者苑苏文关于“鲍毓明案”的报道再次在社交平台上引发讨论。这起案件曾经在2020年上半年成为长达数月的新闻热点。事件曝光之后,引发网民对《刑法》强奸罪相关法条进行修改的倡议,也让亦私下送养与收养问题成为讨论焦点。

案件发酵过程中,最知名的两篇报道是2020年4月9日《南风窗》的《涉嫌性侵未成年女儿三年,揭开这位总裁父亲的“画皮”》和 2020年4月12日财新网的特稿《高管性侵养女事件疑云》,而二者受到网民皆然不同的评价。

案情比社交媒体舆论呈现的更为复杂。2020年9月底创办的“全现在”性别报道频道“水瓶纪元”刊出的第一篇报道,呈现了从2019年开始,众多中国妇女权利社会和法律工作者在此案中投入的努力,以及寻找真相之难。

2021年5月,“全现在”50万订阅者的微信公众号因报道反映女权主义者被网暴的大地艺术项目,被俗称“蛆块链”(中文网络俚语,对“区块链”的戏谑改编,指中国社交媒体上高度同步、风格一致的宣传账号矩阵)的民族主义博主“子午侠士”举报,账号被注销。2021年底,“全现在”解散团队,停止运作。

该报道发表于2020年9月21日。CDT收录的报道文本由原“全现在”编辑提供。

信疑两茫茫:重访“李星星”案援助者 | 水瓶纪元

费顿 水瓶纪元 (Weixin ID Aquarius-Era)
性别解码,多元观察。完美世界·全现在出品。

这是“水瓶纪元”的01篇文章
作者 |  费顿
编辑 | 赵小鲁

《全现在》编者按:

2020年4月,李星星(化名)在主流媒体和社交博主的帮助下发声,指控其“养父”、海归高管与知名律师鲍毓明对其实施性侵害,因巨大的舆论反响,最高人民检察院与公安部派出联合督导组,指导山东、安徽、江苏和京、津两地警方进行了大规模的调查。群情激愤之中,早在此前一年已经介入陪伴和帮助李星星,但又相继退出的援助者们却多数保持了沉默。9月17日,联合督导组通报案件详情,全现在重访当初的援助者,了解她们当初的行动,以及今天如何看待事件的终局。她们是真正投入时间、专业努力和情感陪伴李星星的人,并不认为存在非黑即白的真相;她们经历的内心冲突和挫折,凸显了性侵议题和受害者援助的复杂样貌,以及仅仅通过援助难解的结构性问题。

2019年4月,李星星一连给林漫(化名)发了三条微信信息。

“法律不是要保护受害者吗?怎么放着强奸犯不管,却一直来伤害我?”

“你们永远不会明白我的感受,就像我永远不明白。”

“太痛苦,只能结束自己的生命才能解脱。”

第四条是一个十秒钟的割腕视频。林漫开着会,看到后感到惊慌和不适,她立刻跑出会议室给李星星打微信电话,对方再一次把她拉黑了。林漫紧急联系上南京当地的社工和志愿者,让她们前去救助李星星。

虽然这样的情况不是第一次了。

回到会议室,林漫瘫坐着。做了十几年性侵害和家暴受害者援助角色的为平妇女权益机构负责人冯媛提醒她,“她在裹挟你,要谨慎,不要被她牵着走。”

自2018年1月1日北航博士毕业生罗茜茜实名举报性骚扰引发的社交媒体揭发性骚扰浪潮后,越来越多女性站出来指证曾经遭遇的性骚扰和性侵害。林漫也是从那时开始作为志愿者介入性骚扰、性侵害援助。一直以来,她都在“以受害者为中心”和“不被受害者裹挟”中小心翼翼地平衡着。只是,从2019年初,李星星主动加她微信找她求助开始,事情超出了她的能力范围。

一年后,李星星的社交媒体控诉先是收获了网友的同情与义愤,而在警方调查结论公布之后的则遭遇了舆论的反噬。但对于林漫她们这些曾经帮助过她的人,事态并未如此跌宕起伏,因为性侵的故事,大多是复杂的。

回避与反复

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图片:CFP

在李星星之前,林漫接触过性侵受害者。她学习过性骚扰、性侵害等性暴力产生的相关知识,参加过性骚扰干预工作坊。她很清楚性暴力背后是不对等的权力关系和陈腐的性别观念,以及干预机制和社会支持网的严重缺失。

所以当李星星断断续续对她讲述自己遭遇养父性侵,并被长期控制,绝望无助到曾经多次自杀时,林漫自然选择了“相信受害者”立场。

但援助过程中,林漫不是没有疑虑。

她注意到李星星特别不容易建立信任感。李星星只愿意和她打字和发音频,却从来不愿意和她视频。她发现李星星声称自己高三,却经常在上课时间段和深夜一两点给她发信息。她也觉察到,李星星的讲述里有前后矛盾和不一致的地方,当她提出问题,李星星又都会以“现在上课了”、“忙学业”来躲避回答。她想与李星星的母亲视频,被李星星拒绝。她想联系李星星口中曾经求助过的“社工姐姐”和“医生奶奶”,也被李星星以各种理由推延。她想看看李星星的学生证,想知道李星星就读的学校,李星星总是以“准备高考”挡了回去。当她查到鲍毓明的身份时候,李星星又阻止她与鲍的联系,甚至要求她不要去打听鲍的信息。

林漫坚持了“以受害者为中心”的理念,一切以尊重受害者的讲述和诉求为主。她想的是,或许,当事人还没有完全信任她,想求助但对她诸多防备。

2019年3月份,林漫链接了律师、社工、心理咨询师以及司法资源给李星星之后,李星星的表现更加反常和反复了:她一时说恨鲍,当援助者告诉她,基于鲍的美国公民身份,领事馆回复有证据就可以调查鲍的时候,又说爱上了鲍;一时说只想把鲍送进监狱,一时又说怕鲍一把年纪死在监狱;一时说要离开有鲍的环境,一时又说自己一辈子毁了,只能跟鲍在一起;她一时发信息来说决心举报鲍,一时又打来电话哭诉“算了,还是放了他,即便是一只狗,我也不舍得”。

斯德哥尔摩综合症?李星星在求助过程中表现出的担忧、恐惧、反复,以及医院开出的抑郁和焦虑诊断书,暂时回应和解释了林漫和一起援助的律师、社工的一些困惑和无力,大家认为,李星星只是需要更多的时间来了解和面对。“相信受害者”、“没有完美的受害者”、“不苛责受害者”——这是援助者经常探讨的原则。

况且,受到伤害刺激的人在一定时间内无法面对伤害,或者伤害过于深重无法讲述,又或者讲述得混乱无序,甚至逻辑不清晰,都情有可原。林漫当时思考的是,对于一个有钱有地位有知识有权力的美籍律师来说,生于农村曾是留守儿童的李星星在绝对的弱势地位。

前期也参与援助的长沙律师付薇坦言,做性侵案需要和受害者共情,“不相信,不共情,你无法感受受害者的感受和理解受害者,无法提供有效的援助;但是共情到哪一步,就得抽离出来思考真相?这需要长期的学习。”

取证之困

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图片:CFP

付薇以律师的身份参与了李星星案子曝光前的前期援助。她记得自己2019年5月初开始介入时的角色定位:不是社工,不是咨询师,不负责李星星的情绪安抚,只负责案件本身的信息。

然而,李星星有强烈的诉说欲望,三更半夜也会给付薇发信息,打电话。当时的付薇初为人母,对“幼儿性侵”、“律师知法犯法”有母性天然的愤怒,她一边照顾新生婴儿,一边义无反顾援助李星星。

“那时候预设她当时情况危险,不及时处理就会产生严重后果,也考虑到作为援助者不及时反应会造成二次伤害,所以都是有求必应,不管多晚。”付薇想推进法律程序,然而她根本得不到李星星有效的信息。

“她给出来的信息是重复的,无效的,甚至是相互矛盾的。”付薇回忆,李星星反复问她“为什么警方不立案,为什么立案了又撤案?为什么她的证据不算证据?”

然而当付薇把问题细化,问她细节和具体的情景甚至报警的程序时候,李星星又欲言又止,“当事人不提供回馈,或者提供的都是无效的信息回馈,那根本做不了事情。”

李星星不断催促付薇作为律师去派出所,甚至质疑她“是不是故意不去派出所查她的报警和立案”,但是谈到具体的委托,李星星都再三拖延,没有回应。

当时在林漫、付薇以及其他援助者安宁(化名)等人的催促下,李星星提供了她口中的证据:鲍裸露上身拿着胶带的图片,恋童癖相关视频的播放记录、马桶上的血丝痕迹。

现在看来,这些所谓的证据其实不能解释什么,裸露上身撕胶带是在干什么?在什么时候、什么地方、具体什么情景下发生的?播放记录又是什么时候的?谁看的?马桶上的血丝是月经还是其他?怎么可以证实是李星星的?而且还是被性侵后的?但是放在李星星的叙述里,构建在李星星提供的信息上,参与援助的人都觉得事件很可怕,也未能对图片的真实性继续进一步调查。

此外,李星星也一而再再而三向付薇透露“要自杀”的念头和举动,让付薇在整个援助过程中感到压抑和紧张,甚至绝望又无能为力。
林漫提出她最大的困境,那就是该怎么求证这些证据的真实性。例如李星星在她再三要求下发出来的身份证号和真实名字,“那身份证那个时候是真实有效的,谁会质疑,这个身份证曾经被更改呢?”

况且,最高检察院和公安部出动督导组,查阅李星星的学籍资料和历史档案,询问相关当事人,并结合李星星的骨龄鉴定结果,才能查实她真实出生日期。

林漫回想,即便是李星星给她发过来的那份焦虑和抑郁诊断书,其实也没有办法求证是李星星的,“她截头截尾的,只看到症状,看不到名字、时间、身份信息。”

而作为自带干粮协助弱势群体的援助者有什么能力和资源来求证当事人提供的证据呢?是不是没有办法到达真相的时候就停止协助呢?
付薇得到的教训是,再遇到这样的案子,她一定不能把求助者作为单一的信息源,“一定要去找其他信息源。”

然而,当林漫设法接触到李星星曾经求助过的南京社工以及南京的派出所,得以了解事情全貌时,就破坏了李星星对林漫的信任。

复制房思琪

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台湾作家林奕含关于未成年人性侵的小说《房思琪的初恋乐园》曾经引发受害者和关注性侵议题的公众巨大的共情,而今天援助者需要在仿效房思琪的叙事中寻找被证据支撑的事实。图片来自网络。

幼女、性侵、囚禁、洗脑、恋童癖。李星星的故事中,每个词都是一个新闻热点。林漫有过媒体记者工作经验,对于这么多的元素放在一个故事上,她知道事件的爆炸性和杀伤力。

即便原则上选择相信李星星,并且对接律师、社工和心理资源进入援助,林漫对李星星多次提出的曝光维权诉求还是持了保留态度。她很清楚,要做媒体曝光,需要多方求证和佐证性侵事实,但是多方打听下来,她没有证据可以支撑这一性侵指控。她变得更加谨慎。
林漫绕过李星星,联系上南京的社工以及南京妇联,从对方口中得知,李星星从未说过的信息:李星星确实曾报过警,南京妇联也派出了援助律师、心理咨询师以及社工进行援助。

“为什么妇联给你援助,你说没有?”

“你报警时候是不是有南京的社工陪着?为什么(现在)不可以联系南京的社工?有什么顾虑?”

“案子是你主动去撤的吗?”

当林漫拿着这些问题问李星星的时候,李星星十分抗拒,指控南京社工和鲍有联系,根本不是在帮她。

李星星也质问起林漫,“为什么你和警察一样,不相信我?为什么受害者明明受伤了,还要流着血给你们提供证据?”

林漫回复李星星,“如果你要曝光,这些问题就是会被质疑和放大的。”

同一时期进入援助的援助者安宁记得,李星星多次要求曝光,而且曾三番两次说出“活不下去”、“站在桥上,想跳下去”,并发出定位给林漫,以此要求林漫写稿曝光。一些新闻机构的记者也遇到了类似的情况。

当林漫拒绝李星星的曝光诉求后,李星星不再信任林漫,转而向付薇和安宁求助。

安宁复盘援助过程,她发现李星星习得了台湾作家林奕含的小说《房思琪的初恋乐园》中主人公的话语,“我的爱都是被迫情况发生的”,“不爱他,我怎么活下去?”,“被伤害了,就感觉自己一辈子都脏了”。

她也开始希望了解社交媒体反性骚扰的模式能否给她带来帮助。她会问安宁,这一潮流中,站出来的当事人怎么克服恐惧的,也会谈斯德哥尔摩综合症,谈创伤。

安宁问她为何反反复复,她的回答是:“我反反复复的是,我对他的态度,要不要让他坐牢,而不是对他性侵事实的反复。我很清楚,他是性侵了我,我纠结的是,要不要让他坐牢,坐牢死了怎么办?我也很清楚了,我即便对他的态度会反复,对他的亲情、爱情,都是在他这几年的洗脑下产生的。这难道不是大家应该考虑的吗?我一个十几岁小孩,怎么可能爱上他三四十岁的人?那么小就被这样伤害了,又怎么可能不反复纠结呢?”

安宁指出,即便每一个援助者都意识到,李星星对每一个人的讲述都有所不同,且都有所保留,还有一部分的谎言,但又无法苛责受害者必须全盘托出、毫无遮掩,“有所保留的情况太正常了。”

本身是性骚扰当事人,后来援助众多案件当事人的弦子也发现,越来越多个案里,举报者的叙述中,房思琪式的表达被模仿,得到巨大的关注,自然也会引来效仿。然而关注可能引起反挫。

援助者纷纷退出

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李星星最后的援助律师郭建梅是中国第一位全职公益律师。图片来自网络。

林漫介入的半年过程中,看到援助者纷纷退出李星星的案子。

第一个退出的,是一开始就对李星星提出质疑的邱姓律师。

2019年2月下旬,李星星告知林漫等援助者,她的养父鲍毓明来了南京,她想去见鲍毓明最后一次,并获取精液或录音等证据。

林漫等人当然不支持李星星这样的想法,他们给她分析种种风险,但无法动摇李星星的决定。林漫等人只好提出,那至少要让当地社工陪伴,要让她母亲知晓。

此时邱律师第一次提出质疑,他担心李星星有被迫害妄想症,他多次跟李星星提出,需要联系李星星在南京曾求助过的心理咨询师以及南京妇联未成年保护中心的老师。

李星星敏感地嗅到邱律师的质疑,变得愤怒又委屈,“我求助过她们,但她们都说没有证据,叫我不要去其他地方说。我不相信她们,也不想让她们知道。”

权宜之计是让李星星母亲介入。援助者们要求与李星星母亲通话。让他们深感震惊的是,李星星母亲竟然也同意李星星的决定,并拿出与李星星说辞一致的理由:“反正已经被他性侵三年了,几百次了,说实话都麻木了,再伤害一次能取得精液等关键证据的话,不在乎。”

邱律师无法相信李星星以及其母亲的说辞,提出可能另有隐情。他认为求助者不诚实难以有效援助,第一个退出了援助。

林漫也有了更多的疑虑,邱律师退出后,她在3月份给李星星链接了另一位律师万淼焱。万淼焱曾代理过李彦杀父案,也援助过罗茜茜、弦子等性侵事件的当事人。

李星星最初对万淼焱的援助表示欢迎。万淼焱也十分积极参与援助和调查,但她展开调查后,对李星星产生了更多的质疑。

万淼焱从南京警方以及南京妇联处得到更多的消息,除了李星星曾报警一事得到支撑外,她发现,李星星隐瞒了很多事情。例如,李星星的母亲早就知情,还收取过鲍的钱财。

她查到了李星星报案的经历:李星星报警被性侵,警方曾立过案,然而李星星不听劝告后来又去了酒店与“养父”发生了关系,并且去派出所撤了案,警方也深感无奈。

万淼焱当时也是谅解了李星星,以为李星星就像大多数受到家暴的妇女,无法一下子脱离,也无法说出所有真相。

然而,万淼焱了解得越多越发现,李星星不仅不坦诚,还有说谎和诋毁他人的嫌疑。南京方面向她透露,一次报案后有注册的社工前去援助李星星,李星星在派出所把陪同的社工支了出去。当社工询问警方为何不立案时,警方回答“没有案子,这个女孩说她与对方是恋人关系”。

这个事件到了李星星口中,李星星指控,“是那个社工,是她和警察说我和养父是‘恋人关系’的,她为什么要这样害我?”

万淼焱从她的职业经验上提出质疑:社工陪同未成年人接受询问,只要未成年人年满10周岁,警察就会让未成年人自己陈述,而非父母或社工等陪同角色来取代本人陈述案件事实。

“这样的情况下,警察不会允许社工代替陈述。这位社工在南京长期从事未成年保护工作,她的专业能力也不至于在这样的情况下说出这样不负责任的话。”万淼焱分析,李星星不仅撒谎,还诋毁援助她的人,“她今天会这样诋毁援助者,若不合她的心意,明天就可以这样诋毁我。”

万淼焱还提出,李星星在派出所可以自然地撒谎,一个谎言背后就会有无数谎言。例如李星星曾发誓说从来没有拿过鲍一分钱,当有社工佐证她母亲曾收过钱后又改称,作为鲍的养女,用他的钱也是正常的。

万淼焱多次质疑李星星,导致李星星一度在林漫面前提出对万淼焱的微词,“这个阿姨太厉害了,说话好伤人”,甚至要求更换律师。
“李星星在警方面前说的话可以翻脸不认,更别说在其他人面前了。”万淼焱要求自己审慎接案,发现自己无法相信李星星,她坚决退出了对李星星的援助。

随后退出的援助者是安宁。安宁学过心理学,对女权理论有深入研究,也自学过一些妇女权益保护相关法律。在她看来,李星星事件是一个社会性结构性的悲剧,若没有极大的社会资源支撑,根本没有办法对李星星进行援助,“例如说对李星星与鲍进行隔离,可是能给李星星提供庇的地方有多少?”

安宁退出的理由不是她不相信李星星的故事,而是她认为自己没有足够的经验和能力来平衡“以受害者为中心”和“不被受害者裹挟”。此外,李星星无时无刻的陪伴需求,严重扰乱了她的情绪和生活。

她对“收养”一事有极大的质疑,也怀疑事件中李星星父母亲的角色。即便如今最高检和公安部通报了鲍某涉嫌性侵的调查情况,安宁指出,她的疑问仍未被解答:通过“收养”来“改善生活条件”是李星星的真实意愿?还是父母的意图?更改出生日期发生在李星星被“收养”之前,那更改出生日期的想法和行动是谁在主导?其中父母亲的角色和目的到底为何?李星星是积极配合还是反对的?她是否又有能力反对?

接着介入援助的付薇律师、李莹律师、杨斌律师、林漫以及多位志愿者,都因为无法从李星星处获得有效信息,需要的材料李星星也长期没有提供,纷纷退出了援助工作。

据林漫后来了解,李星星把曾经援助过的志愿者、律师的微信再一次全部拉黑,又重新通过社交网络继续进行新一轮的求助。

冲突激化

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鲍李二人居住过的山东烟台滨海社区。图片:CFP

2019年5月底,北京源众性别发展中心主任、律师李莹接到同事李慧茹的电话,说受助者李星星要跳海自杀。和对方通话——微信语音和电话背景是海浪和趟水的声音。

这一天在忙乱中度过。李莹打电话截住一位正在开车上班路上的当地朋友,一边辗转通过南京的妇儿权益工作网络联系上李星星的母亲。一两个小时后,那位朋友载着李星星母亲到海边,李星星已经“被人救了”——当时实情如何,朋友也不得而知。最后,李莹的朋友把母女俩送到了附近的派出所。

这让李莹后怕不已。自从4月下旬热线接到李星星求助以来,她的经历与之前的律师、社工与记者一样。“我当时是完全相信她的。”

当时,李星星的要求是能让公安再次立案。她自述还有几个月满十八岁,也说到自己已经有很严重抑郁症,有自杀倾向,医生让她住院。“我们觉得要更加重视她。我说你是未成年人,我需要跟你的父母沟通一下。”让李星星配合依旧不容易,李莹坚持之下,终于得到了与李星星母亲沟通的机会,“感觉她母亲没有什么主意,闺女怎么说怎么是。”但无论如何也不算太诡异——可能就是跟她遇到过的很多受害者家属一样,可能是因为能力、生活状态和文化程度,不能给孩子更多帮助。

之后,与山东与南京的相关部门沟通的过程中,李莹了解到许多李星星没有告诉她的复杂情况,觉得有些困惑和“情况不对”。当时,再次立案的可能性很小,她只能劝后者,“有证据不足的问题。我们会努力,不要太着急。”

事实上,与李莹等援助者的联系激化了鲍李之间的冲突。这一个时间区间在鲍毓明一方的记录中,是李星星和某位“北京阿姨”“阴谋”将其送进监狱的时期。一些援助者感觉到,她们的存在,最后李星星都会让鲍毓明知道,似乎这也成为了双方角力的一部分。

不久,李星星来电,说鲍毓明将其打伤,当时在派出所。源众决定帮她申请一笔紧急救助基金,但申请需要的身份信息,跟李星星磨了很久。

没几天,这笔救助金又退回了源众。李星星告诉她们,鲍支付医疗费。“我有些小感动呢,觉得这是一个懂事的孩子,知道这些对她的支持资源是不容易的。”

与其他人类似,李莹对李星星的感受,在困惑与怜惜之间往返。她知道她的反复和谎言,跟之前遇到的个案当事人差别很大;但在李莹看来,这些表现又跟过去遇到的受害者有相似之处:无法安放自己的情绪,因此爱上加害人,可以理解。围绕对李星星的照顾,源众和深圳市春风心理创伤援助公益平台以及南京帮助李星星的一位咨询师组成了微信群组。

跳海事件之后,李莹觉得情况危险,心理问题不能再拖了,“我跟她说,追究责任不是一时半会儿的事,对你来说最重要的是去治病。”李星星不合作,源众的同事再次申请了紧急救助基金,费了很多功夫,终于说服她住院治疗了。

“阿姨,我来北京找你好吗?”李星星开始如此请求。李莹感觉,李星星对办案表现出较强的主导性,而了解越来越多复杂情况的李莹,希望坚持自己办案的节奏和思路,婉拒了她的来访,让她先好好学习,不要耽误考试。

很快,源众、春风的工作人员和南京的心理咨询师同时被李星星“集体拉黑”了。

黑箱

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南京是李星星的父母与哥哥长期工作与生活的城市,她曾在此报警,也得到警方、妇联和社会组织的帮助。图片:CFP。

2020年4月初,李星星一案在《南风窗》曝光后引发全民关注。千千律师事务所介入援助,律师郭建梅和吕孝权共同代理。此时,李星星差不多已经把全国在性别暴力上最有处理经验的社会组织都求助过一遍了。

吕孝权坦言,案子成为全国性舆情事件后,有记者找到他们,请求给李星星援助,“但案子进行侦查阶段,我们可以做的事情很有限,看不到核心证据,调查的卷宗资料一页都没看到,对李星星提供的证据,如身份证,也没有足够的查证能力。”

介入代理后,郭建梅和吕孝权一直与李星星保持着联系。那段时间,李星星情绪和心理状态不稳定,有时候焦虑到凌晨两三点给他们打电话做长时间咨询。

两人会见过李星星,也多次提出想见见李星星的母亲了解情况。但因种种原因,未能见到李星星的母亲或其他家人。

李星星的家庭就像一个黑箱,让人无法看清楚内部真实情况。李星星的家庭情况具体如何,父母亲在事件中到底是什么角色,她受到的教育是怎样的?李星星在老家县城的数一数二的高中读着书,为何突然“请病假”去了南京?按照现在的调查通报,李星星一家与鲍某在2015年9月才开始接触,然而李星星父亲在2015年3月就给李星星更改了年龄和身份证。为什么?更改年龄是谁的主意?

这些都是导致李星星案发生的关键信息。然而,不管是媒体采访还是最高检察院和公安部的调查,都没有深入解释。无法全面了解这些因素,就无法从中探知逻辑关系,也无法准确分析和判断。那如何到达真相?

吕孝权的执业困境是,如何与各种当事人之间迅速建立起彼此互信及友好的沟通关系。面对纷纷扰扰的各路舆情,如何在第一时间进行有效辨识,并做好帮助当事人屏蔽二次伤害。如何及时有效稀释负面信息对代理律师身心的负担。

李星星对援助者,包括律师都不够信任,在受到质疑时又以一些自以为是的谎言回应,导致事件真相越发破朔迷离。

李莹童年时期有过与父母分离的经验,这让她不断回到原生家庭和早期经验去理解李星星“为什么成为这样的一个孩子”。她的个案援助经验告诉她,熟人性侵案很少是简单明了的,而当事人复杂的精神状态,会让性侵害案件变得更加难解。“我们不能够轻易谴责可能的受害人,她们所作所为一定有背后的逻辑,一个是为什么没有安全感、对帮助她的人没有信任?跟童年经历有关。”

一些报道此案的记者披露,李星星在初中阶段学习较好,还是班干部;父母较早将儿子带去南京,而将女儿交给老家的父母。这让李莹更加质疑星星的家庭在她后来经历的事件中扮演的角色。

长期进行性别暴力受害者心理咨询的心理学者张澜(化名)对全现在表示,童年遭受性侵和其他早期创伤性经验,譬如家暴和父母忽视、贬低和歧视的个体,如果没有来自重要他人的支持,其对自己、他人和周围世界的看法会受到负面影响。这是童年心理创伤造成的后果。

张澜表示,在性侵事件中,有经验的援助者较多的是记者、妇女组织成员和律师,多是从社会结构与法律的角度去理解事件;而有相关个案积累的心理咨询师介入很少——处理这类当事人的个案,都需要投入大量的时间和心理能量,同时可能需要支付昂贵的督导费来获得专业指导,以及支付同样昂贵的个人体验费(个人体验是指心理咨询师以来访者的身份,去资深前辈处进行心理咨询)来预防或者处理可能的替代性创伤。而司法系统的工作人员可能既缺乏对性别处境的理解,也不太了解这类当事人特殊的思维方式和言行举止,因此沟通可能会出现问题。

在救助李星星的过程中,助人者很可能因为感受到无力、无助、委屈和愤怒而最终撤退。张澜提醒,这样的救助工作需要非常专业的知识,包括性别视角、创伤学和人格结构领域的知识,以及相应的干预经验。“我们都要在有能力保护自己的前提下去帮助她们,否则就像不会游泳的人去水里救人一样,白白搭上自己。”

几年前,有性侵案需要介入,转介者提醒郭建梅:“这或许不是一个好的当事人。”郭建梅的回应是:“没关系,当事人很少有‘好的’。”——不会像一般人想象的那样无懈可击、纯洁无暇,对律师也未见得一定坦诚,这是长期为弱势女性与儿童进行法律援助的她,已经习惯的事实。

郭建梅坚持认为,即便没有发现鲍毓明违背李星星意志,采用暴力、胁迫或者其他手段强行与李星星发生性关系的证据,但鲍某某明知其本人和李星星的情况,都不符合相关法律规定的收养和被收养条件,且在误以为李星星系未成年人的情况下,仍以“收养”为名与李星星交往且发生性关系,就已经是有主观的性侵故意了。

多位救援者对鲍毓明都持类似的看法:他利用自己的社会经济地位而伤害了地位与阅历都与他有天壤之别的年轻女性,这是不公平的,只是法律并没有作好准备,干预这种不公。

社交媒体时代的援助挑战

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图片:CFP

真相并未因为调查结果出台而彻底清晰,社交媒体上已经出现了“反转”和“没有反转”的两极。

当下的网络环境下,受害者多方求助,一边习得别人的经验,一边也有了条件想着各种办法来打磨自己的故事。求助者还可能认为,求助专业机构和专业人士,不如求助网络来得快速有效。然而,对维权的目标、代价与法律风险考量不足,反而可能让当事人因直接面对网络暴力和撕裂的舆论而承受超过预期的压力,增加个案解决的难度。

在最近梁颖—罗冠军围绕是否约会强奸而引发的网络风暴中,李莹的一位性侵当事人特意向她表示感谢。因为李劝阻了她实名在网络上曝光对方的行为,而又在法庭上为她争取到了胜利。对曝光,李莹的立场一直是:“要保护好自己的信息,避免遭受二次伤害,因为曝光是不可逆不可控的。”而她认为,很多当事人可能并未意识到,揭发事实需要极为谨慎,这个过程中离不开专业人士的帮助。

林漫曾多次提醒李星星要谨慎曝光和小心面对舆论。然而,无论是李星星还是帮助她发声的微博账号“烟台B律师性侵案受害人姐姐”,看来都缺乏媒体经验。不止一家媒体在发稿之前都遇到过李星星声称不发稿就自杀,而当一家视频媒体的报道导致李星星不满,“烟台B律师性侵案受害人姐姐”直接宣布:没有接受过这家媒体采访。

林漫注意到,社交媒体舆论仍然是要么“李星星诈骗”要么“鲍恋童性侵”的两极对战,要么“相信受害者”要么“归咎受害者”的对立立场。而这些长期耕耘妇女权利议题的援助者则更多地认为,没有非黑即白的真相。

“应该反思的是,为什么会有这样普遍的网络求助?”李莹认为,理解性暴力上理念不够和实践操作中的具体问题,现状就是很多真实的性侵害案件无法走法律程序,而网络能够作为一个外部压力,推动个案解决。而在社会支持系统不足的情况下,网络舆论对于受害者也是一个安慰。

弦子总结自己支持受害者的经验,如果要坚持践行自己的性别主张,承担对运动的责任,那援助者永远不可能轻松面对所有的呼救和求助。“援助者需要反思失误,需要面对混沌,否则怎么努力进步呢?”

林漫的反思是,援助者要清楚知道自己的能力范围和职责界限,坚守自己的底线和伦理,知晓援助行动的风险,不被求助者和舆论绑架。说到底,还是共情与理性的平衡。

对于援助者们,“总是狼来了,我们要不要相信性侵控诉者”这个问题是个伪问题。李莹在最近的一个讲座上提及,自己经手的三分之一的性侵案件无法立案或者定罪,而现实中诬告构陷很少,并且几乎都能被发现。“受害者打破沉默就很不容易了,我们还是要相信她们。”

原创稿件。转载请后台留言联系。

【404文库】新史记Recorder|他建议废除“口袋罪”,执法者回赠了他一个“口袋”

2 April 2026 at 12:07

CDT编辑注:本文由CDT编辑根据文章截图转录。

一个建议废除模糊条款的律师,被用模糊条款惩处。
一个控告司法局长的律师,被没有文书地带走。
没有哪个环节看起来是错的,但结果是荒谬的。

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撰文|燕十三
出品|有戏 Review

CDT 档案卡
标题:他建议废除“口袋罪”,执法者回赠了他一个“口袋”
作者:燕十三
发表日期:2026.3.29
来源:微信公众号“新史记Recorder”
主题归类:依法治国
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

2023年8月,青岛律师于凯和同事以律师事务所名义,向全国人大法工委提交了一份《关于废除寻衅滋事罪的立法建议》。

其理由是:这个罪名罪状表述模糊,成为选择性执法的兜底条款,与罪刑法定原则冲突,司法实践中存在滥用。

这是公民的法定权利。《立法法》第一百一十条写得清清楚楚。

2024年7月,青岛市司法局认定此举属于"炒作案件",对于凯作出停业一年的行政处罚,对其所在律所停业六个月。

2025年7月,停业期满。于凯的执照没有被如期归还——司法局以"流程延迟"的方式,在处罚期届满后继续剥夺他的执业资格。

2025年7月28日,于凯拿回执照后第11天,再次向全国人大法工委邮寄第二份废除寻衅滋事罪建议书。

2026年3月26日,于凯在朋友圈实名控告青岛市司法局局长邓焕礼,指控其涉嫌滥用职权、徇私舞弊、巨额财产来源不明。

2026年3月27日,于凯失联。随后确认:他因涉嫌"扰乱公共秩序"被带走调查。同行律师赶去了解情况,据称"未出示任何执法文书"。

1、这是一道逻辑题,答案已经自动揭晓

你可能觉得这个故事有些奇怪。让我把它翻译成更简单的版本:

一个律师说,某条法律过于模糊,可以被用来惩罚任何人,所以建议废除它。

然后,他被这条法律——或者与它逻辑结构完全相同的另一条法律——惩罚了。

这在修辞学上叫"自我证明"。在法学上叫"恶例"。在日常语言里,叫做:你说得对,我用行动证明给你看。

于凯在建议书里写:寻衅滋事罪"边界不清,易泛化","成为选择性执法的兜底条款"。

青岛市司法局的回应是:把他举例论证的行为定性为"炒作案件",停业一年。青岛市的执法机关随后的回应是:把他站在大院门口举牌的行为定性为"扰乱公共秩序",带走调查。

"炒作案件"。"扰乱公共秩序"。"寻衅滋事"。

请注意这三个词的共同特征:它们都没有清晰的边界。没有人能告诉你,哪种程度的表达是"炒作",哪种程度的站立是"扰乱",哪种程度的建议是"滋事"。而这正是于凯在建议书里要废除的那种东西。

所以,于凯用自己的遭遇,完成了他建议书最有力的补充论据。只是这个补充论据,是被迫写就的,写在他的人身自由上。

2、"炒作案件"这个定性,本身值得被炒作

青岛市司法局2024年的处罚决定书里,把向全国人大提交立法建议定性为"炒作案件"。

这个定性需要被认真对待,不是因为它正确,而是因为它太有创意了。

向人大提立法建议,是《立法法》明确保护的公民权利。在建议书中举例论证,是人类使用逻辑数千年以来的基本方式。你要证明一个规定有问题,你就得举出它造成了什么问题的例子。否则你在证明什么?

但青岛市司法局找到了一条精妙的处理路径:不去碰"提立法建议是否合法"这个问题(这个没法碰),而是把"举例论证"这个动作单独切割出来,定性为"炒作"。

这个逻辑如果成立,推论链条相当壮观:所有法学论文引用判例讨论立法问题,都是"炒作"。所有律师在辩护词中援引类案,都是"炒作"。

最高法刑事审判第四庭2023年发布的调研报告,指出寻衅滋事罪存在五大问题并列举具体情形——那也是在"炒作案件"。

当然,最高法刑四庭不会被停业,因为他们不是于凯。

所以,这个逻辑真正的含义不是"举例论证等于炒作",而是"在不该说话的时候说话,叫做炒作"。这是一个简洁的结论,只是不能写进正式文件里,所以需要绕一个弯。

绕这个弯的代价是:法律文书本身变成了一个笑话,只是没有人在笑。

3、11天:这个数字需要被记住

停业一年,执照还被拖延归还。在于凯公开发出律师函施压之后,他终于拿回了证书。

然后是11天。11天后,他再次向全国人大邮寄了废除寻衅滋事罪的建议书。

有人说这是"任性"。有人说这是"硬汉"。我觉得这两个词都不够准确。

任性是一种不计后果的冲动,它不需要理解代价。于凯显然理解代价,他刚刚付出了整整一年。"硬汉"这个词带有一种审美化的色彩,好像这是一种值得欣赏的气质展示。但于凯做的事情,其实没有那么浪漫。

他只是认为这件事是对的,然后继续做了。

在一个正常的法治环境里,这种行为甚至不需要任何勇气,就像你认为红绿灯设置有问题、写信给交管部门建议改进,不需要勇气,只需要一个信封和邮票。

11天这个数字令人心情复杂的地方恰恰在这里:它揭示的不是于凯有多特别,而是他做的事情本来应该有多普通。

一个公民,拿回自己的证件,继续行使法律赋予他的权利。这件事如果需要被以"11天"来强调、以"铁骨铮铮"来形容,那出问题的地方,不在于凯身上。

4、没有坏人的荒谬剧

于凯这个案子,可能让很多人想找一个具体的坏人。

但你仔细看整个链条:青岛市司法局的工作人员执行上级意志;执法办案中心的人走程序;每一个环节的人,大概都有文件可以援引,有依据可以出示。没有哪个人会在事后说"是我做错了"。每个人都只是在做"该做的事"。

这就是制度性问题的核心特征:它不需要任何一个坏人,只需要每一个人都照章办事。章,是可以被写成任何形状的。

一个建议废除模糊条款的律师,被用模糊条款惩处。一个控告司法局长的律师,被没有文书地带走。没有哪个环节看起来是错的,但结果是荒谬的。

这种荒谬,是系统性的。它不会因为某一个具体官员被处分而消失,因为它存在于规则的结构本身。

于凯一直在做的事,就是指着这个结构说:这里有问题。然后这个结构回应:是你有问题。

5、沉默是一种投票

于凯这个案子,有人会说:我不是律师,和我没什么关系。

这种想法本身,就是"寻衅滋事""炒作案件""扰乱公共秩序"这类词汇存在的最大价值所在。模糊,意味着它可以适用于任何人。

而让大多数人觉得"和我没关系",它就可以一次只适用于一个人,直到轮到你的时候,已经没有人在旁边了。

于凯被带走的理由,是"扰乱公共秩序"。他做的事是:一个人,站在大院门口,举了一块牌子,上面写了几句话。

一个人。
没有聚众。
没有煽动。
周遭连第二个人都没有。

如果这叫"扰乱公共秩序",那这个"秩序"本身,可能才是需要被讨论的问题。

一个律师,行使法律明确赋予的权利——提立法建议、控告官员——然后消失了。没有文书,没有通报,没有任何正式的告知。消失这件事本身,就是一种表态。

于凯试图提议废除的,是一种可以惩罚任何人的模糊性。他现在正在亲身证明这种模糊性的威力。而我们能做的,至少是记住这件事,记住它发生过,记住它正在发生。

记住,是最低限度的不服从。而最低限度的不服从,在某些时刻,也是唯一有意义的事。


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特朗普称对伊朗战争“即将结束”,未给出明确时间表

2 April 2026 at 12:56

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特朗普称对伊朗战争“即将结束”,未给出明确时间表

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS
特朗普在白宫发表全国讲话。
特朗普在白宫发表全国讲话。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
特朗普总统在周三的黄金时段全国讲话中宣称,美以针对伊朗的战争“即将结束”,但他并未给出清晰的战争退出路径,同时还放话要将这个国家炸回“它本该待着的石器时代”。
特朗普在讲话中并未发布任何具有实质性内容的声明,反而将对伊朗的军事行动形容为一场压倒性的胜利,同时似乎在呼吁那些对战争成本和无期限战事感到不安的美国民众“客观看待这场战事”。
特朗普逐一列举了美国过往参与冲突的持续时长,包括伊拉克战争与越南战争,意在提醒美国民众,针对伊朗的军事行动才刚进入第二个月。但与他在整场战争期间的表态一致,特朗普并未给出清晰的退出战略,反而发表了模棱两可、前后矛盾的言论,一边释放外交和解的信号,一边又发出升级打击的威胁。
“未来两到三周,我们将对他们发动极为猛烈的打击。”特朗普在这场19分钟的讲话中表示。“如果无法达成协议,我们将对他们的每一座发电厂同步实施精准强力的打击。”
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特朗普要求伊朗通过谈判结束这场战争,而就在一天前,他还在白宫椭圆形办公室对记者表示,美国结束这场冲突无需与伊朗达成协议。
霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的核心要道,特朗普将恢复该海峡通航描述为其他国家的问题,尽管周三早些时候他还在社交媒体上表示,除非海峡恢复通航,否则他不会同意任何停火协议。伊朗已切断了该海峡的石油运输,导致全球石油与天然气价格大幅飙升。
谈及其他国家时,他表示:“我们会帮忙,但他们应该主动站出来,保护自己这么迫切依赖的石油运输通道。”
特朗普还称,伊朗“发射导弹与无人机的能力已遭到大幅削弱”。美以两军已通过空袭摧毁了伊朗的大量弹道导弹与发射装置,但仍有大量设施完好无损,伊朗也仍在该地区持续发射导弹
这场讲话有时让人联想到美国民众通常在战争爆发之初、甚至开战前会听到的那种严肃讲话——总统会在这类讲话中详细阐述采取军事行动的必要性。开战前,特朗普并未在全美各地巡回演讲、系统说明开战的正当性;而周三晚间的这场讲话是自2月28日对伊朗发动袭击以来,他首次在白宫发表黄金时段全国讲话。
特朗普声称,伊朗已濒临造出核武器的边缘。这一说法存在争议:伊朗确实有可能在数天至数周内生产出武器级核燃料,但美国情报机构的结论是,要将这些燃料制造成核武器,还需要数月甚至一年以上的时间。
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我们还报道了以下内容:
· 外交僵局:尽管特朗普坚称与伊朗的谈判仍在进行,但美国多家情报机构近日评估认为,德黑兰方面目前无意开展实质性谈判。相关官员透露,评估报告显示,伊朗政府认为自身在战争中处于优势地位,无需屈从于美国的外交要求。阅读更多›
· 战争目标:2月28日,在美国联合以色列发动首轮空袭仅数小时后,特朗普为这场战争定下了五大目标。尽管空袭已对伊朗的军事能力造成重创,但伊朗仍在持续发射导弹、保有核材料,并与该地区的民兵组织保持协同行动。阅读更多›
· 霍尔木兹海峡:周三早些时候,一名伊朗官员在社交媒体发文强调,美国将无法重新获得该海峡的通行权,称“霍尔木兹海峡一定会重新开放,但不是为你们开放。”
· 伤亡数据:人权活动人士新闻社表示,自战争爆发以来,伊朗境内已有至少1606名平民丧生,其中包括244名儿童。黎巴嫩卫生部称,自以色列与黎巴嫩真主党爆发新一轮冲突以来,截至周三,黎巴嫩已有超1318人丧生,另有超3935人受伤。在伊朗于中东各地发动的袭击中,海湾国家已有至少50人丧生。截至上周五,以色列境内至少有17人丧生。美军方面的死亡人数为13名现役军人,另有数百人受伤。

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美情报机构评估称伊朗目前无意进行实质性谈判

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美情报机构评估称伊朗目前无意进行实质性谈判

黄安伟, JULIAN E. BARNES
美国多个情报机构评估认为,伊朗政府目前不愿就结束战争进行认真谈判。
美国多个情报机构评估认为,伊朗政府目前不愿就结束战争进行认真谈判。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
据美国官员称,多个美国情报机构近日评估认为,伊朗政府目前不愿就结束与美以的战争进行实质性谈判。
这些评估指出,伊朗政府认为自己在这场战争中处于有利地位,因此无需接受美国的外交要求。评估还认为,尽管伊朗愿意保持沟通渠道畅通,但并不信任美国,认为特朗普总统对谈判缺乏诚意。
在过去一年中,特朗普两次在伊朗核计划谈判期间下令对伊朗发动打击。
这些评估与伊朗官员近期的表态一致,伊朗方面否认了特朗普关于双方在其他国家斡旋的谈判中取得进展的说法。据伊朗官方通讯社报道,伊朗外交部发言人周三表示,德黑兰政府并未要求停火,尽管特朗普当天上午声称伊朗已提出停火请求。
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特朗普周二对记者表示,美军将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动。但伊朗若决定继续作战,将使这一目标变得复杂起来。总统在周三晚间的讲话中表示,“如果没有达成协议”,美军将打击伊朗“每一座”发电厂,此举将被广泛视为战争罪行。
两名伊朗官员和一名巴基斯坦官员表示,在适当条件下,伊朗政府仍可能进行外交接触。他们表示,德黑兰希望看到华盛顿愿意认真讨论结束战争,而不仅仅是谈一个临时停火协议。他们还说,伊朗对外公开表态的措辞要比通过私下渠道向美国传递的信息强硬。
由于战时外交和情报问题的敏感性,这些官员及美方官员均要求匿名接受本文采访。
伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的葬礼于周三举行。革命卫队内部的一个强硬派系已成为政府中最有影响力的声音,该派系更不可能做出让步。
伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的葬礼于周三举行。革命卫队内部的一个强硬派系已成为政府中最有影响力的声音,该派系更不可能做出让步。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
特朗普周三在社交媒体上写道,伊朗“新政权的总统远没有前任们激进,也聪明得多,刚刚向美利坚合众国请求停火!”。但他表示,在伊朗允许船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡之前,他不会考虑这一请求。通过袭击油轮,伊朗军方实际上已使该海峡处于关闭状态。
据伊朗官方的伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台报道,伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃周三表示,特朗普关于伊朗请求停火的说法是“虚假且毫无根据的”。
霍尔木兹海峡的困局已成为事态发展的关键节点,海峡的关闭扰乱了全球市场,迫使世界各国制定燃料配给计划。
目前也不清楚特朗普所说的“新政权的总统”具体指谁。美国和以色列的初期袭击击毙了伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及一些高级官员,但自2024年起担任伊朗总统的马苏德·佩泽希齐扬仍在世且仍在任。据伊朗和以色列官员称,伊朗神职人员已任命新的最高领袖,即已故最高领袖的强硬派儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,他在首轮袭击中腿部受伤,此后未再公开露面。
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美国和伊朗官员表示,美伊双方正通过中间渠道甚至直接渠道互通信息,但双方并未就停火条款或结束战争展开谈判。
伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬周三发布了一封致美国民众的公开信,暗示外交途径仍有可能,同时也表示伊朗将对抗敌对势力。目前尚不清楚这封信是否代表伊朗领导层的共识。周二,佩泽希齐扬表示,特朗普政府在此前谈判期间发动攻击,说明美国“并不相信外交,只图自身利益”。
特朗普多次提及通过外交途径结束战争的可能性,但同时也威胁要升级战争,将美国的打击范围扩大至能源基础设施和海水淡化厂——许多法律专家表示,这类攻击将构成战争罪。
一名官员表示,多份报告中的情报评估自冲突爆发以来一直保持一致。
伊朗高级官员仍然拒绝在核计划和弹道导弹生产方面作出特朗普政府所要求的那类让步。
伊朗表示,其通过铀浓缩发展民用核计划是正当权利,但这一点遭到美国官员反对。分析人士称,伊朗方面将军方的弹道导弹视为国家主要的威慑手段。伊朗官员认为,美国和以色列施压要求放弃这两者,是对伊朗国家主权的侵犯。
上海的储油罐。中国是伊朗石油的最大买家。
上海的储油罐。中国是伊朗石油的最大买家。 Go Nakamura/Reuters
特朗普及其高级助手在公开声明中,关于战争目标以及美军是否已实现这些目标的问题上摇摆不定,这使得任何外交努力都变得复杂。
近日,特朗普表示,美国在这场战争中已经摧毁了伊朗的两个政权,而第三个、更为顺从的政权现已就位。然而,由哈梅内伊领导的现任政府仍然是神权专制、反美的,并誓言将继续与美国人作战。
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特朗普还提出了其他目标:他表示希望掌控伊朗的石油资源,并经常提及核计划问题。他还曾与美军领导人讨论,是否派遣美军进入伊朗,夺取一批被认为储存在隧道中的高浓铀库存——这些隧道因去年6月美军空袭而被碎石封堵。
现任及前任官员称,鉴于美以攻击的强度,伊朗官员认为自己是在为政权的生存而战。一些伊朗官员对任何和平协议的持久性持怀疑态度。美国官员表示,伊朗领导层担心,即便达成协议,以色列也可能在数月后再次发动攻击。
有关美国情报评估认为伊朗目前不准备达成协议的报道此前尚未公开。《华盛顿邮报》早些时候报道称,美国情报机构评估认为,伊朗官员认为自己在这场战争中占了上风。
由于巴基斯坦与伊朗军方领导人之间的密切联系,巴基斯坦已成为外交斡旋的中间方。近日,巴基斯坦说服中国与其一道公开呼吁结束战争。中国与伊朗在商业和军事上都有联系,也是伊朗石油的最大买家,但一直不愿就这场战争展开实质性的外交斡旋。
中国和巴基斯坦周二发布了一份五点联合声明,其中呼吁停止敌对行动,并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的航运。伊朗目前允许前往中国的船只通过该海峡,但亚洲及其他地区的国家已开始为严重的燃料短缺做准备。
当被问及中国是否可以成为外交协议的担保方时,中国驻华盛顿大使馆的发言人刘鹏宇在声明中表示:“中国支持一切有助于缓和紧张局势、推动局势降温并恢复对话的努力。”
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他还补充说:“我们呼吁有关各方尽快启动和平谈判。中方愿同巴基斯坦及其他各方加强沟通协调,共同推动停火,实现地区和平稳定。”

Farnaz Fassihi自纽约、Leily Nikounazar自布鲁塞尔对本文有报道贡献。

黄安伟(Edward Wong)为《纽约时报》报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。

Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。

翻译:杜然

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'We go for all humanity' - emotional moment as Artemis II blasts off

2 April 2026 at 11:09
Watch the moment Artemis II blasts into space on historic mission

Nasa's Artemis II mission thundered away from Florida's coast, taking its four crew members on their historic journey to circle the Moon.

There was a deep rumbling as a sheet of brilliant white flame suddenly erupted, momentarily engulfing the whole launch pad as the mightiest rocket Nasa has ever built rose into the sky.

Nasa's Space Launch System (SLS) majestically crept upwards - slow at first, then gathering pace, riding on two blinding pillars of flame that crackled and roared with increasing volume until the rumbling was almost deafening, a sound we could feel in our bodies as we watched on in amazement, three miles (4.8km) away from the launch pad.

There were small cheers from those in the know as the rocket past the moment of maximum danger - one minute and 10 seconds into the launch. This is where the pressure hits the rocket the hardest, and when engineers know that even a small structural weakness can be disastrous.

There was no weakness, and SLS arced out over the Atlantic like a fiery white angel, leaving a white smoky trail as the sound subsided and the spacecraft disappeared from view, shrinking to a single bright star as it chased the Moon.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Artemis is taking off in the distant background, and people watch, many with tripods. The US flag flutters above them on a flag pole.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Spectators are kept at a safe distance, but the deep rumbling of the rocket launch can still be physically felt

Afterwards, there was a giddy euphoria among staff at the Kennedy Space Center.

One person told me they felt quite emotional and another said they wanted to cry – no doubt a release of tension built up over the past few months when Artemis II came close to launch, but ended up being scrubbed for various reasons.

Tonight, though, Nasa employees were laughing and clapping - this is the moment that they have spent years working towards. There is still work to do, but for now they are bathing in the moment of triumph.

In the hour before take-off there were issues which threatened the launch.

They concerned the launch abort system, which enables Nasa engineers to eject the astronauts and blow up the rocket if there is a malfunction.

The countdown clock was held at 10 minutes while engineers resolved the problem. They worked quickly, but it was an agonising wait to see if the launch could still go ahead.

Then came the staccato rhythm of the calls by each engineer responsible for the rocket's critical systems: "booster, go", "GNC, go", "range, go" – each reply, a tiny release of tension and a build-up of expectation.

"Artemis II, this is launch director," said Charlie Blackwell-Thompson, the first woman to hold the position at Nasa.

"You are go for launch," she told the crew. "We go for all humanity", Commander Reid Wiseman responded.

Cheesy words in normal circumstances, but that was the moment our spines began to tingle and we knew we were about to witness history.

Gerardo Mora/Getty Images A group of people watches the launch, most holding phones or cameras up to the sky.Gerardo Mora/Getty Images
Many thousands of people gathered at viewing locations around the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to watch the launch

The Kennedy Space Center was built to send astronauts to the Moon, but that hasn't happened since 1972 when Apollo 17 blasted off. Today, the centre was back in business, doing what it was made for.

The press corps headed outside, where clouds that had threatened to cancel the launch had evaporated.

As the countdown clock restarted, the atmosphere turned to electric anticipation.

The four RS 25 engines and twin solid rocket boosters lit up, driving more than 8.8 million pounds of thrust into the Florida evening sky.

"God Speed Artemis II" Blackwell-Thompson said in another echo from the past. The same words were used in a launch from here in 1962 to send John Glenn, the first American to orbit the Earth, on his way.

NASA Four astronauts stand side by side inside a cramped white spacecraft or support module, wearing bright orange launch and entry suits with blue trim and mission patches. Their arms are folded confidently across their chests.NASA
On their way to the Moon: Commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor J Glover, and mission specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen

I have been lucky enough to see launches of the Space Shuttle to the International Space Station from the Kennedy Space Center. Those launches are almost as impressive in flight, surging into space with an enormous bang and rising at the speed of a bullet.

But the SLS launch was not only more beautiful, it meant much more: a moment full of emotion for all those who saw it, perhaps because it reminded us of what humanity can do when it comes together, or perhaps because we may be entering a new era of space travel.

In the 1990s, I had the opportunity to speak to Neil Armstrong, who, in 1969, became the first person to ever walk on the moon.

Our discussion came at a time when the dream of human space travel seemed to be over. I asked him whatever happened to that dream? He smiled and said "the reality may have faded but the dream is still there and it will come back in time".

Today was the day the dream returned.

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