Patriotism has become partisan.

It doesn’t matter that people across the ideological spectrum are equally likely to say that they themselves are patriotic. New international polling shows that when you ask them about expressions of patriotism, they think those displays are right-coded.

Those results from The POLITICO Poll reveal the extent of right-wing populist parties’ success after years of claiming nationalism as central to their political identities — and growing in power and popularity.

The political parties furthest to the right across several major Western democracies were consistently more associated with national pride than other parties, the poll found. A 29-percent plurality of U.K. adults, for example, said they would expect someone who said they were “proud to be British” to support Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform U.K., 16 points greater than the 13 percent who would expect them to be from the center-right Conservative Party. Similar pluralities said the same in France about Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, or National Rally (30); in Germany about Alternative for Germany, or AfD (35); and in Spain about Vox (29).

In the United States’ two-party system, respondents were 15 points more likely to expect someone who said they were proud to be American to be Republican (38) than Democratic (23).

The findings are the latest sign that these parties — from Donald Trump’s “America First” movement in the United States to the rise of the far right across Europe — are owning the language and symbols of patriotism, including a country’s flag.

Right-wing parties have rapidly gained ground by tapping into voters’ growing concerns over border security and cost of living, and have flexed their power over the last decade, reshaping existing debates over conservatism, sovereignty and national identity. In some cases, they have pushed major political parties, like America’s GOP, further to the right.

But even as the politics of patriotism have shifted toward the right, the poll found that pride in one’s country is essentially nonpartisan.

Majorities of adults across the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Spain all say they are proud of their country. In the U.S., 68 percent of adults — including most Trump 2024 voters and former Vice President Kamala Harris voters — say they are proud to be American.

The June survey, conducted by London-based Public First, shows the challenge for centrist and left-leaning parties that are weighing how to reclaim overt symbols of patriotism — or redefine what patriotism means for them.

Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington, said the findings reflect the rising tide of hyper-partisanship.

“Political polarization is coloring views through a left-right, us-versus-them political lens,” he said. “That lens changes based on whether [people’s] preferred party is in charge or not.”

Far-right parties embrace politics of national pride

Debates over immigration, sovereignty and cultural flashpoints across the West have increasingly turned into fights over what a nation stands for — and who that includes, and who gets to define it.

In the United States, Trump’s “America First” agenda and “Make America Great Again” movement have explicitly made national identity central to Republican messaging. The president has vowed to secure the southern border, conduct widespread deportations and prioritize aggressive trade politics aimed at boosting the U.S. economy.

The POLITICO Poll found that Trump’s rhetoric is very popular among the right in Europe. When asked how they would feel about a candidate who promised to “Make [their country] Great Again,” far-right respondents across the countries — including 70 percent in Reform U.K., 68 percent in France’s National Rally, 66 percent in Germany’s AfD and 77 percent in Spain’s Vox party — said it would make them feel more positive about that candidate.

That comes as those parties have similarly centered campaigns on immigration, borders and cultural identity, presenting themselves as defenders of their nations.

In Germany, expressions of national pride are often viewed through the lens of the country's Nazi past. For decades after World War II, overt displays of patriotism — including flying the German flag from homes, porches and balconies — were widely regarded as distasteful. This was particularly true on the political left, where patriotism was often considered legitimate only insofar as it was grounded in Germany's rejection of nationalism and its country's reckoning with the Holocaust.

But a political movement based on restoring national pride and a sense of past glory has taken root in the far-right AfD party, which actively campaigns to instill patriotism in German youth. In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is far ahead in the polls ahead of a regional election set for September, the party's platform calls for an end to "the perpetuation of a guilt complex" among Germany's youth and advocates a renewed "call for patriotism."

That comes through in The POLITICO Poll, which found that a 44 percent plurality of AfD supporters say that people in Germany aren’t proud enough of the country’s history, significantly greater shares than in other parties. AfD voters were also much more likely than others to say they would think positively of someone who said they were “proud to be German.”

France, too, has been a battleground in the war over patriotism, as Le Pen and her party have centered anti-immigration and French national identity. The Euroskeptic National Rally has become so associated with the French tricolor flag that as the campaign for next year's presidential election gets underway, leftist candidates are saying they must claw back national symbols from populists who have co-opted them.

In the U.K., Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s centrist left Labour Party won a landslide election victory in 2024, partly through a very deliberate strategy of rebranding itself as a patriotic movement. The Union Jack flag was added to every party communication, and members were required to sing the national anthem at Labour’s annual conference. Party bosses focused on 40 percent of the electorate whom they termed “hero voters” — these were usually middle-aged, working-class people who supported Brexit. They were patriotic and proud of Britain, and tended to feel neglected by mainstream politicians.

But after less than a year in power, Starmer’s Labour had lost support among many in this group and fallen below Nigel Farage’s populist nationalist Reform U.K. in the polls. Another year later, his continuing nosedive in popularity — and a Labour wipeout in local elections in May — forced him to resign.

Meanwhile, the far right is gaining more traction. British nationalist activist Tommy Robinson, who has draped his “Unite the Kingdom” marches in flags and pushes anti-Islam views, is widely seen in a negative light by British voters but enjoys notable support among Reform U.K. supporters, Public First polling found earlier this year.

Can the left reclaim patriotism?

For parties on the political left, the problem is not that their voters reject patriotism.

Majorities of adults across the countries surveyed say they are proud of their country, and they are far more likely to respond positively than negatively toward a political candidate who said they loved their country and were proud to live there.

In the United States, for example, a 45 percent plurality of Harris voters said they would feel more positively toward such a candidate. In the U.K., 47 percent of Liberal Democrats and a 53 percent plurality of Labour supporters say they would feel more positively.

The challenge for these parties is that some of the overt symbols of patriotism — such as displaying a national flag, or even owning one — have become more closely associated with conservative parties.

“As much as these results show the political right having success in claiming patriotic language, they also show left parties abandoning a political message that has potential,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “This is easier terrain for the left than party leaders think, given the pride we see across the spectrum.”

Across several of the world’s major democracies, there’s a brewing movement underway to try to reclaim patriotism from the far-right parties.

England's St. George's flag — a red cross on a white background — has long been used to show support for the national soccer team. It has also been associated with nationalism and racist political movements in the U.K.

But recently, some football fans have taken to displaying the flag with the viral phrase "Football not Farage" — an effort to show their frustration with right-wing politicians co-opting the symbol for their political cause at a time when it is being used to celebrate the nation's participation in the World Cup.

In the U.S., Democratic lawmakers and candidates are leaning more deliberately into patriotic themes, even if they emphasize them differently than Republicans do. Rather than focusing on flags and traditional patriotic imagery, many have highlighted their military service and sense of civic duty. A number of Democratic House candidates who are also veterans, for instance, are touting their service and commitment to the country in ads and on campaign websites.

Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a leading figure in the progressive movement, told TMZ that “we need to be focusing a lot more on how all of us are American,” when asked about the nation’s flag and how it is typically more associated with Republicans.

“America is not whoever is in charge right now. To me, my understanding of our country is all of the great people and movements that are a part of it,” she said, later adding: “The immigrant story is one of the most American stories that we have.”

Tim Ross, Joshua Berlinger, James Angelos and Hanne Cokelaere contributed reporting.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the state’s rancorous GOP gubernatorial runoff, aligning the popular governor with President Donald Trump on their preferred candidate.

Kemp’s last-minute public blessing of Jones on Sunday night comes just days before the Tuesday election and marks his clearest effort yet to shape the race to succeed him in the governor’s mansion, after months of staying on the sidelines of one of Georgia’s highest-profile political contests.

It’s also a new point of agreement between Kemp and Trump, who just hours earlier sided against the governor’s handpicked candidate in the Georgia Senate runoff.

The endorsement could boost Jones as he faces off against Rick Jackson, who has poured millions of his own money into the race, making it among the most expensive gubernatorial primaries on record.

Kemp said Jones “has been a strong, trusted ally in those victories for the people of our state” in a post on X. “Burt knows how to get things done as governor because that’s what he has done as a state senator and as your Lt. Governor,” he wrote.

Kemp did not mention Jackson in his endorsement post, but he took aim at the Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who has faced questions over her rocky tenure as Atlanta’s mayor but ultimately clinched a resounding victory in the May Democratic primary.

The governor was the subject of ads from both Jones and Jackson in the final days of the GOP runoff. An ad implying Jackson had Kemp's endorsement "definitely didn't help Rick," one person familiar with the governor's thinking said.

Tuesday’s runoff between Jones and Jackson has become a test of Trump — and now Kemp’s — political influence in the perennial battleground, fueled by an unprecedented influx of campaign spending. Jackson has spent $100 million of his own money, and has seen a rise in the polls. A recent Cygnal Political analysis showed Jackson with a 12-point lead, while a recent CivicLens Research survey found Jones ahead by roughly 10 points, foreshadowing a close battle to the finish.

Jones finished first in the primary last month with 38 percent, while Jackson earned 32 percent of the vote.

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© Getty Images for The Coca Cola Company

It’s not just football versus soccer. Britain and America share a language and deep historical ties, but their political systems are an ocean apart.

That could be good news for President Donald Trump.

As Republicans in the United States search for clues about the political mood ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections, a parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, England, is demanding attention. It’s not just that the special election could kick off a chain of events ending in Keir Starmer being ousted as prime minister — the contest itself serves as an early test of whether the anti-incumbent anger that upended Western democracies in 2024 remains a potent force.

But a new analysis of POLITICO Poll results suggests British and American voters respond to that political frustration in different ways. While cynicism about politics is widespread and persistent in both countries, British voters, with an array of political parties across the ideological spectrum, are willing to abandon their party in search of an alternative.

American voters, by contrast, remain largely constrained by the two-party system — limiting just how far they can go in channeling their frustrations.

In the U.K., just half of those who voted for Starmer’s center-left Labour Party in 2024 plan to vote the same way in the next election, according to the survey conducted by Public First from May 8 to May 11.

Meanwhile, strong majorities of Americans — including 75 percent of Trump 2024 voters and 86 percent of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris — plan to stick with their party, underscoring just how little voter movement there tends to be in the U.S.

“We have a far, far more fluid system, I think, even than in the U.S., so people will switch parties,” said Mark Shanahan, an associate professor of political engagement at University of Surrey in Guildford, England.

That could be a saving grace for Trump and the GOP as they brace for a midterm landscape more difficult than initially expected, a change fueled in large part by voters’ persistent economic anxieties. It’s easier for the British voters who elected Starmer in 2024 to move to a different party in the country’s multiparty system, but disaffected Trump voters have no real choice.

Trump’s rise to the White House in 2016 was powered by a coalition that included independents, disengaged voters and Americans who felt alienated from the political establishment. They helped him again in 2024.

Republicans trying to stave off a difficult midterms have since warned that the biggest danger for the party in November is not that those voters suddenly defect, but that they become disillusioned enough to simply not vote. It’s a turnout election, strategists and candidates from both parties keep saying, that will likely come down to whether Trump voters show up for the party even when he’s not on the ballot.

What they’re less worried about is Democrats finding a way to move large numbers of persuadable, frustrated Republican voters back into the fold, or to pick up steadfast partisans. That’s true even as voters keep making clear that they’re looking for change.

The POLITICO Poll reveals just how deep the sense of cynicism and pessimism runs among voters in both countries. In the U.S., 71 percent of adults say politicians only look out for themselves, including 79 percent of those who backed Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump.

There are similar frustrations in the U.K., where majorities of voters blame the politicians — not the system — for the country’s current political problems. In a poll conducted earlier this month by London-based Public First, a 45 percent plurality of U.K. adults say that the country keeps changing prime ministers because none of them are any good.

But the analysis from Public First finds an important distinction in how voters in the two countries channel their frustration at the ballot box. British voters appear much more willing to cross party lines.

In the U.K., the Labour Party rode to power in part by tapping into the support from cynical voters. But two years later, the Labour Party is hemorrhaging supporters. Fewer than half — 49 percent — of those who voted with the Labour Party in 2024 plan to do so again, while 13 percent plan to vote for the Green Party to its left and 13 percent for leading hard-right party Reform U.K., while the rest are divided among other parties or unsure according to The POLITICO Poll.

“What we are seeing, particularly since Brexit over in the U.K., is a dissatisfaction in what was never formally a two-party system, but had been a de facto two-party system pretty much since 1916,” said Shanahan.

The Conservative Party — the Tories, the party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher that battled with Labour for a century — has fallen out of favor, losing support to Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. party. That break is similar to the MAGA vs. traditional Republican split in the United States — but the two-party American system forces the GOP to stay together in an at-times tense coalition on the right, while British voters can simply switch from Conservative to Reform.

That also spells trouble on the left for Starmer, whose popularity has plummeted and who is eager to quash an internal revolt that could eventually lead to his ouster. The Makerfield by-election on Thursday will determine whether Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and Starmer’s chief internal rival, is elected as Labour’s representative in Parliament, giving him the chance to challenge Starmer for the party leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister.

"As the electoral politics of the U.K. fragments, it can only take a few thousand cynical voters in each of a few hundred constituencies to switch a majority to a devastating defeat,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, POLITICO’s polling partner. “This is how, in 2024, Labour got into government with fewer votes than it got in 2019, and why most election modelling would now say they've lost that majority as quickly as they gained it.”

The POLITICO Poll in June found 64 percent of U.K. adults say they don’t trust Starmer and, in a separate question, 62 percent say he is not someone who keeps his promises. Labour suffered massive losses in last month’s elections, prompting the calls from Starmer’s own MPs for him to be replaced.

But as Starmer stares down that threat — fueled by some of the very voters who elected him into office in the first place — the challenges before Trump and the GOP are much different.

In the U.S., even the most cynical and disaffected voters still tend to stick with their party identities. Even among non-MAGA Republicans — the conservatives least loyal to the president, who do not self-identify with his MAGA movement and ideology — highly cynical voters are just as likely to stick with the GOP in the midterms as less cynical voters are, according to Public First.

"In the U.K., voters who are dissatisfied with the main party tend to have a third or even fourth option. In the U.S., they have one alternative, or the option to not show up,” Wride said.

Poll after poll shows early signs of Trump’s 2024 coalition fracturing, on issues including the cost of living and the Iran war, but when faced with the prospect of choosing between one main party on the left and one on the right, voters tend to hold their noses and pick the same one they have before.

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)

Voters punished ruling parties across the globe in 2024. They are doing it again now.

The same voters who rejected their rulers without mercy on both sides of the Atlantic — throwing out Britain's Conservatives after 14 years in power and humbling Democrats in the United States — are now poised to deliver resounding defeats to the very leaders they elected two years ago.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the prospect of being ousted later this year if a key rival in Manchester can pull off a win in a special parliamentary vote next week. President Donald Trump, while locked into power until January 2029, appears to be barreling toward lame duck status with Democrats growing increasingly bullish about their midterm prospects in November — particularly in winning back the U.S. House.

And The POLITICO Poll suggests Western voters’ desire for political bloodletting hasn’t abated.

Building on previous work by Public First, the London-based firm that conducts the survey, a new analysis of May POLITICO Poll results show large shares of voters in both the United Kingdom and United States express deep cynicism about politics and a constant desire for radical change — suggesting the forces behind the backlash may still be potent, and that power switching hands this year may not be enough to quell them.

In America, 71 percent of adults say politicians only look out for themselves, including 79 percent of those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump. In the U.K., voters are similarly angry at politicians, who they blame for being unable to address a variety of issues, including cost of living and immigration. New results from The POLITICO Poll, conducted over the weekend, show a 56 percent majority of U.K. adults said the bigger problem with politics in the U.K. is the politicians who do not do the right thing, while just 15 percent blame the system itself.

That deep dissatisfaction has metastasized into a perpetual anti-incumbent frustration in recent years. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party had its worst result in a national election in several decades, and Canada’s Justin Trudeau stepped down amid growing voter frustration. Just since February of last year, the rulers of Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have all been ejected at key elections.

Now the U.K. is watching the vote in Makerfield next week, which may determine whether Starmer gets to keep his job amid public outrage at his handling of fallout from the Epstein scandal, and voter concerns about immigration, the economy and law enforcement. If Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, succeeds in being elected back to Parliament next week, it will almost certainly trigger a series of events that could end in the removal of the deeply unpopular Starmer as the head of the Labour Party — and prime minister.

The result could ripple across the Atlantic as Republicans face their own political headwinds ahead of the crucial November midterms in the United States.

“What we're seeing is a cross-Atlantic disconnect between voters and electeds,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm.

“Voters in the U.S. are squarely focused on at-home domestic priorities and kitchen-table concerns like food, health care and housing costs. So when the headlines are focused on foreign conflict and disruptions to global markets, those will reinforce the disconnect.”

Deep cynicism in the UK spells trouble for Starmer

In 2024, the rejection of incumbents came amid a growing frustration over the cost of living and broader economic anxieties. Whether that backlash was a temporary response — or reflects an engrained dissatisfaction with political institutions — is a question now confronting leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, as affordability concerns continue to spiral.

In the U.K., the analysis from Public First finds a deep sense of political disillusionment. The firm developed a series of measures to understand that feeling of “anti-politics”, and cynicism stood out: Voters who believe politicians are self-serving, that political talk rarely leads to real action and that the public has little influence over what politicians actually do.

Nearly half of British adults — 45 percent — scored high on Public First’s cynicism scale; so did 37 percent of U.S. adults.

The findings underscore the challenge facing Starmer. New results from The POLITICO Poll conducted last weekend show nearly two-thirds of U.K. adults — 64 percent — said they don’t think Starmer will remain as prime minister until the next general election.

The center-left U.K. leader has suffered the most dramatic plunge in popularity of any prime minister in British history. Since winning a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic lows in opinion polls, while the nationalist right-wing Reform U.K. of Nigel Farage has stormed into the lead in polls and local elections, mirroring the success of insurgent populists across Europe.

Three-quarters of highly cynical voters in the U.K. hold an unfavorable view of Starmer, the Public First analysis of a May POLITICO Poll found — far higher than the national average.

The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will determine whether Burnham, Starmer’s chief internal rival, is elected as Labour’s representative, giving him the chance to challenge Starmer for the party leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister. Burnham’s main rival in the by-election is the Reform U.K. candidate — whose victory would likely end Burnham’s leadership ambitions, plunge Labour into unprecedented turmoil and send the national government into fresh disarray.

But Makerfield looks likely to be terrible for Starmer, whoever wins. Either it will be Burnham, who will then go to London to try to oust the prime minister, or it will be Reform U.K. — fuelling claims that Starmer has toxified his own party beyond repair.

Why Trump should be watching closely

It’s a cautionary tale for Trump, the Public First research found.

As Starmer confronts dropping favorability ratings, Trump’s own numbers have also plummeted — and the segment of cynical Americans may be as dangerous for the president as their British cohort is for the prime minister.

Among this group, 57 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump and his agenda, compared with 48 percent nationally.

That could pose a challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms. Elections in the U.S. historically punish the party in power, and many Republicans are bracing for an even more difficult than anticipated midterm landscape, fueled by the mounting economic concerns and an unpopular war in Iran.

“The biggest mood shift is taking place among voters in the big middle,” Madden said. “These are the same voters that migrated toward Trump and the GOP in 2024 because they were nostalgic for a Trump economy and they rallied around a message focused on tackling inflation.”.

Sizable shares of cynical Americans hold negative views about the economy. Among these respondents, 52 percent say their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office in 2025 and 59 percent say Trump has spent too much time focused on international affairs rather than domestic issues.

Trump, who rode to power in 2024 in large part over voter dissatisfaction to the economy during the Biden administration, is now confronting a similar challenge. Recent polling finds voters increasingly blaming Trump for their financial pressures, even as he continues to cast blame to his predecessor.

Part of the problem for incumbents is that many people blame politicians — not the broader system — for their dissatisfaction, underscoring the challenge for the leaders as voters begin to turn on them. Nearly half of British adults, 45 percent, say the country keeps changing prime ministers “because none of them are any good,” while just 26 percent blame “big problems that not even a good PM could solve.”

As soon as leaders are elected by a frustrated, dissatisfied electorate to turn things around — as both Starmer and Trump were in 2024 — the clock begins to tick.

“Elections are so often now about which candidate can channel the frustrations of a cynical electorate,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, POLITICO’s polling partner.

“Republicans and Democratic candidates alike should pay attention to what is happening in the U.K.,” he said. “It is far harder to win over an antipolitical voter base when you represent the ‘politics,’ and given how fast Britain is working through Prime Ministers cynical voters seem to be getting more common and less patient.”

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the likely GOP nominee in Iowa’s critical Senate race, said last week that the Iran war will become a “political liability” if it extends much longer, according to audio obtained by POLITICO.

Asked in a one-on-one exchange about a timeline for the war, Hinson said, "I'm deferring to the president on the negotiations because he has the team doing it."

However, she added: “I do hope we can get this done by the next couple of weeks. If it drags on beyond that, it's a political liability for us too, because we've lost Iowa soldiers. I've been to four funerals since December, it's awful.”

It’s a stark acknowledgement for a representative who has positioned herself as a loyal ally of President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill, including on the ongoing war, and repeatedly voted against limiting the president’s military powers.

The candid remarks came during a private conversation during a public meet-and-greet with voters in Webster County last Thursday.

Hinson didn’t go so far last Thursday as to condemn the Iran war, reiterating that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” and that the families of the fallen Iowa soldiers “all said that we need to finish the job.” But her remarks offer a glimpse into Republicans’ growing concerns that a prolonged conflict, especially with the resulting rise in gas prices and risk of increased American casualties, could become a vulnerability in battleground contests.

“Of course endless wars are unpopular — no one wants them and thankfully President Trump is doing everything he can to prevent one while keeping Americans safe,” a Hinson spokesperson said in a statement. “Ashley fully supports his mission to keep nuclear weapons out of Iran’s hands.”

While some anti-interventionist Republicans have openly criticized the conflict, such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), few Trump-endorsed candidates running in competitive races have publicly acknowledged the political complications of being at war.

Hinson is widely expected to win Tuesday’s GOP primary for Iowa’s open Senate seat and take on the Democratic nominee, either state Sen. Zach Wahls or state Rep. Josh Turek, in November — what will be one of the nation’s most closely watched races as both parties battle to take control of the upper chamber.

Trump endorsed Hinson’s Senate bid last year and reinforced his support for her in a Truth Social post on Monday night.

Early polling of hypothetical head-to-head matchups between Hinson and Wahls or Hinson and Turek show a tight general election, although the race could widen between now and November.

The White House has offered conflicting timelines for when the Iran war may end, frustrating some Republicans strategists and officials. Polling shows that voters are souring on both the president and the war as the weeks go by, especially as cost of living concerns remain a top issue ahead of the midterms.

A May POLITICO Poll found that a majority of Americans — including many Trump voters — said the war has made things more expensive for them and Trump is not doing enough to protect them from high costs.

“The sooner the war winds down … the better off [Trump] is, at least for the midterms,” said one Florida-based Republican strategist who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape.

But the president has continued to insist that deterring Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is a top priority. “I don’t care about the midterms,” he said last week during a Cabinet meeting when discussing why he hasn’t moved faster to end the conflict.

The war in Iran has become a particular concern for Iowans as prices for fertilizer and diesel fuel — both essential for food production — have soared amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That, combined with Trump’s trade policies from earlier this year, has sent the state’s agriculture sector spiraling. Iowa has also experienced personal toll from the conflict when six Army Reserve soldiers with the 103rd Sustainment Command based in Des Moines, Iowa, were killed on March 1 in an Iranian strike on a Kuwait facility.

“Ashley has stood side-by-side with grieving Iowa families whose loved ones paid the ultimate sacrifice in service to our country,” the Hinson spokesperson said. “She will always honor their service and stand with our men and women in uniform carrying out this critical mission."

© Scott Olson/Getty Images

Americans still aren’t sold on President Donald Trump's economy — and many say the Iran war is making their financial situation worse.

Six months after The POLITICO Poll first found deep concern among voters, new results show Trump has been unable to improve their perception of the high cost of living and who is to blame.

In November, nearly half of Americans said the cost of living is the worst they can remember — as of May, 53 percent still say the same. In November, 46 percent of Americans said Trump holds full or most of the responsibility for the state of the economy — as of May, that number is virtually unchanged.

Now, a plurality say their finances have only worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of the president’s 2024 voters, according to the May survey conducted by Public First.

The findings underscore how Trump has struggled to find a winning midterm message on affordability, even as the economy remains healthy by many indicators. The president’s tendency to go off script, despite his allies’ urging, has further muddied GOP efforts. And the unpopular Iran war has Republicans barrelling toward November with voters’ financial fears remaining a stubborn, lingering political liability.

A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout from the war, which has caused gas, food and flight prices to spike. More than 60 percent — including majorities of both Trump voters and people who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 — say the war has made things more expensive for them overall.

“A major challenge for [Joe] Biden was that, as prices rose and worries about inflation took hold, the response from the Biden administration was that inflation was ‘transitory,’” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist.

“Trump faces a similar predicament. As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it's a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now,” he added.

The Iran war is increasingly overshadowing the Trump administration’s domestic economic messaging, as officials often get peppered with questions about oil and gas prices and battleground Republicans grow anxious that the extended conflict could hurt their chances in key Senate and House races this November.

The survey shows that Republicans’ attempts to place the economic blame on Biden aren’t resonating: Just 28 percent of Americans say the former president holds full or most of the responsibility for the current U.S. economy, compared with nearly half who lay much of the blame at Trump’s feet.

"The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability," said one Florida-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the president "has been clear about short-term disruptions" and is focused on implementing his economic agenda.

"As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in," Desai said in a statement.

Trump voters are far more likely than Harris voters to say that the president has taken sufficient action to curb costs from the Iran conflict, but even his own supporters are split: 43 percent say he has done enough, while 43 percent say he has not.

It's a stark sign that mirrors broader divides within the GOP over the war, as some conservatives, such as media personality Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been vocal in their opposition to the conflict.

Still, Trump voters are much more willing than Harris voters — and Americans broadly — to say the U.S. should continue its involvement in Iran even if it increases costs, highlighting the trust they maintain in the president. A 42 percent plurality of Trump voters chose this option, compared with 11 percent of Harris voters and 22 percent of all respondents.

But Thursday brought more disappointing news for the administration: Inflation has climbed to its highest level since Trump returned to office, and the economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of the year than previously estimated, the government reported.

Nearly half of Americans still blame inflation for the overall affordability challenges they are facing, the survey finds, even as roughly one-quarter say conflicts overseas are the main reason for their challenges.

Strong majorities of respondents say the prices of everyday items — such as gas, food and medicine — have somewhat or greatly increased in their area since Trump took office, including most of the people who voted for him.

Republican strategists argue that a resolution to the war could improve Americans’ perceptions of the economy, but the longer the conflict drags on, the more difficult it may become for the party to reverse voters’ views. Economic experts have already warned that gas prices will remain elevated for at least several more months as the global economy reels from the conflict.

"If you can get the gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and the people in those 16 to 18 House districts that are going to decide this race, are feeling good in three or four states, then you're in a much better shape than a lot of people think," the GOP strategist said.

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)

The MAGA takeover of the Georgia GOP is nearly complete.

The old-guard of the Republican Party in Georgia has fallen after withstanding MAGA’s furor since 2020, replaced by a new breed of candidates — up and down the ballot — closely aligned with President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, the Trump allies marched on: Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones clinched a spot in the gubernatorial runoff on Tuesday alongside billionaire Rick Jackson, who told supporters he’d govern like the president “with a southern tone.” In the GOP Senate primary, Rep. Mike Collins, a staunch MAGA ally, advanced to a runoff. And House candidates Jim Kingston, Houston Gaines and Clay Fuller won their races by wide margins, boosted by the president’s endorsement.

Meanwhile, longtime Trump antagonists — especially those who denied the 2020 election was “stolen” — lost their primary battles: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Attorney General Chris Carr and Gabriel Sterling, a former top Raffensperger aide.

The results offered the clearest sign yet that Georgia Republican voters increasingly want their political future tied to Trump-style politics and messaging — a shift in one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds that could shape elections in 2026 and beyond.

“It's key to success in a Republican primary in Georgia today to either have the president's endorsement or be able to make the case to voters that you're certainly a Trump-aligned candidate,” said Georgia Republican Party chair Josh McKoon, a loyal Trump ally.

Candidates like Raffensperger may now be “relics of the past,” said Chip Lake, a longtime Republican strategist who helped Jones’ campaign. “That doesn't mean they're bad human beings, it just means that their style of politics is not consistent today with where the base of the party is.”

But hugging Trump that tightly in the primary has proved lethal for some Republicans in the general election, and Democrats in Georgia hope 2026 will echo the GOP’s 2022 election losses.

The Republican Party in Georgia, like in other states, has been drifting more and more toward a full-throated populist approach during the Trump era. But the old guard led by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp (R) as well as Raffensperger and Carr managed to hold on through the 2022 midterm primaries against a number of Trump-backed challengers, delaying the hard MAGA takeover that occurred in many other states earlier on. The sharp shift this cycle comes as the GOP pushes for more resources and attention in the key swing state.

Now, some GOP strategists increasingly view aligning with Trump not just as an ideological litmus test, but as a practical necessity — especially as Trump’s political operation sits on  roughly $300 million in campaign funds. 

“It is good for the state of Georgia to choose these MAGA-aligned candidates in that the president has a huge war chest, and that war chest can be utilized for candidates that he likes,” said one Georgia-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state’s dynamics.

Across the state’s marquee Senate and governor’s primaries, the winning GOP candidates all embraced Trump’s brand. The expensive and rancorous primary for the governor’s mansion quickly evolved into a contest over who best carried the MAGA mantle — Jones, who has the president’s explicit support, or Jackson, who tried to convince voters that he, too, was closely aligned with Trump.

Trump has stayed out of the Senate primary so far, but the candidates still raced to align with his movement. Collins, a hardline immigration hawk and loyal Trump ally on Capitol Hill who appeared at a rally with Trump earlier this year, said that he is “unapologetically Pro-God, Pro-Trump, Pro-2nd Amendment, Pro-Strong Military” after advancing to the runoff.

Even former football coach Derek Dooley — Kemp’s handpicked candidate who will face off against Collins in the June runoff — leaned into his status as an outsider (à la Trump) and adopted a “Georgia First” pitch.

“We haven't made any attempts to alienate Trump whatsoever. Derek supports the agenda. He's made it clear through the debate and multiple interviews that he supports the president,” said a senior Dooley adviser, who was granted anonymity to speak openly about the race, prior to Election Day.

It’s a notable gamble for a party that was punished during the 2022 midterms for nominating hardline MAGA candidates across the country — including former football star Herschel Walker for Georgia Senate — who later lost in key races. This midterms cycle appears to be trending much harder toward Democrats, given Trump’s low approval ratings, voters’ concerns with the economy and the unpopular war in Iran.

Democrats are more than eager to tie Republicans to the president. Devon Cruz, a spokesperson for the Georgia Democratic Party, said in a statement that the Senate runoff will leave Collins and Dooley “terminally inseparable” from Trump.

Still, Tuesday’s results underscored how Trump’s dominance is increasingly shaping which Republicans can win statewide primaries in key races. And it’s not just in Georgia.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has long been a thorn in the president’s side, lost his seat to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a bitter retributive campaign. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy was ousted by the president’s favored candidate. Trump vanquished a majority of the Indiana Republicans who bucked him on redistricting. And he finally backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate race after deeming Sen. John Cornyn to be an insufficient ally.

“The party has completely changed in 50 states,” Lake, the Republican strategist, said. “It looks nothing like it did a decade ago, and it looks absolutely nothing like it did 15 years ago.”

“We're a party that's a lot different, that's got a sharper focus, that's willing to fight more, " he added.

Raffensperger, who had become the biggest icon of standing up to the president, acknowledged to reporters following his loss that conspiracies about the 2020 election – despite no evidence to support any claims of fraud – helped tank his chances with Republican voters.

But he stopped short of blaming Trump’s grip on the party on his failure to advance in the runoff: “I just think terms are up, and so it's a changing of the guard and turning over a new leaf,” he told reporters after his election loss. “We'll have new people with new plans, new hopes, new visions, and we're going to see where it goes.”

© Illustration by Lauren Bulbin/POLITICO (source images via iStock)

Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley advanced to a runoff in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, dragging out a bitter contest to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.

The result plunges Republicans into another monthlong intraparty fight. Meanwhile, Ossoff, who already has a massive name ID and $31 million and counting in his warchest, can continue building and conserving his resources in the marquee race.

It also sets up a proxy battle between President Donald Trump, who holds Collins as a close ally, and Georgia’s GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who backed Dooley for the nomination. Dooley, who was polling in third place ahead of Election Day, had a late burst of momentum after casting himself as a political outsider and leaning on his ties to Kemp.

The outcome now intensifies pressure on Trump, who didn’t support a candidate in the primary, to intervene. The president’s endorsement in a runoff — where the electorate tends to be highly engaged voters — could prove decisive.

The primary was marked by infighting and state Republicans’ escalating concerns that the national GOP was shifting its attention to other battleground states instead of Georgia.

A runoff looked all but inevitable in the contest’s final weeks with polls showing none of the candidates near the 50 percent support they’d need for an outright win. Dooley and Collins will face off again June 16, though Tuesday’s result suggests the latter holds an advantage.

Early public polling of hypothetical general election match-ups shows Ossoff with a lead over both Republicans.

The general election is expected to be one of the most expensive in the country. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has already pledged an initial $44 million in spending for the fall, while the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC recently committed $20 million.

© Ross D. Franklin/AP; Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP

Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Georgia governor, as the party seeks to flip the state’s top seat for the first time in nearly three decades.

Bottoms, who defeated a crowded field to win the race outright Tuesday, can pivot to the general election — even as Republicans are headed toward a costly runoff of their own.

Georgia hasn’t elected a Democrat to the governorship since 1998 but has trended hard toward purple-state status in recent years, with Democrats carrying the state in the 2020 presidential election and winning Senate races there that year and in 2022. But the governor’s mansion has remained elusive — and some Democrats have already questioned Bottoms’ ability to win in a general election, noting that her rocky tenure as Atlanta’s mayor from 2018 to 2022 makes her vulnerable to general election attacks.

Bottoms’ outright win lets her get a head start at closing her fundraising gap in the race: Both Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and health care executive Rick Jackson — the two leading candidates on the Republican side — have amassed war chests that exceed hers by millions of dollars, but much of that money has come from personal loans to their campaigns.

With the primary now behind her, she is likely to ramp up efforts to tap national donors and support from Democratic leaders who had largely stayed on the sidelines.

Bottoms, who served as a senior adviser during the Biden administration and earned the former president’s endorsement, boasted higher name recognition than her primary opponents. She easily defeated former state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County executive Michael Thurmond and former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan to clinch the nomination Tuesday.

Public polling before the primary showed Bottoms as the clear front-runner, but the state’s rules — which require candidates to win more than 50 percent of the vote — increased the likelihood of a runoff.

Still, even before the primary concluded, she was already the subject of attack ads from Republicans, including Jackson, foreshadowing the onslaught likely to come.

© Brynn Anderson/AP

A lot of Democrats are willing to sacrifice Black voting power to beat the GOP.

In the two weeks since the Supreme Court significantly narrowed a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans have kicked off a fresh round of redistricting across the South. Their aim is to dismantle majority-minority districts, which they’ve long argued are unconstitutional, and to try to keep control of the House.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show many Democrats want their party leaders to fight back hard — even if it means breaking up districts designed to protect the power of Black voters and other minority communities.

In theory, Democrats want to keep those districts intact. When given no context on the recent Supreme Court decision, a 54 percent majority of people who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 say it is more important to protect the voting power of Black voters and other minorities, even if it means Democrats draw fewer seats.

But that number changes significantly when the question is asked in the context of the Supreme Court ruling and Republican gerrymandering — and a 45 percent plurality instead say that Democrats must counter GOP efforts, “even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts.”

Taken together, the poll results reveal that Republicans’ aggressive redistricting is testing Democrats' appetite for a maximalist posture in response — and so far, many appear willing to embrace it to win the House. They’re even willing to throw away traditional liberal principles such as boosting the electoral power of voters of color in an effort to fight fire with fire.

“Do I think you should do all of these carve outs? No. But do I think what we've just witnessed should have happened? No. Do I think that the Supreme Court should have come down with Callais? No,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.). “At some point you do have to stop and say, ‘This is madness, and all this is doing is unraveling democracy.’”

But Democrats’ conversations “probably will have to” involve carving up majority-minority districts, said Kamlager-Dove. “It's existential at this point, and this is a larger battle that we're fighting for.”

It’s a stunning admission from a Black lawmaker who represents a majority-Hispanic Los Angeles district: Defeating Republicans might be more important than protecting districts like hers.

And it’s a real possibility the party would have to deploy the tactic if it hopes to stand a chance against the most aggressive Republican gerrymandering possible. To draw House seats with the best margins for the party — especially in states like Illinois and New York — district lines would likely need to be altered in a way that packs large numbers of Black voters into red-leaning areas in order to make them bluer.

It’s not just a few Democrats switching their minds. Consider the Harris voters who initially say they would protect majority-minority districts: When asked about countering the GOP, they split roughly evenly, with 46 percent saying it’s more important to draw more blue seats and 41 percent saying the majority-minority districts should be kept together.

The survey, conducted by Public First, sheds new light on an emerging front in the gerrymandering war that has spread across the nation. At least nine states will use new maps this fall, with others still weighing last-minute gerrymandering before the midterms. Many more are debating doing so in the lead up to 2028, as mapmaking rapidly becomes a top priority for both parties.

The poll suggests people of color are more willing to accept the trade-off of having fewer majority-minority districts if it means beating Republicans, though margins of error are higher with the smaller sample sizes for this group.

Pluralities of Black (42 percent), Hispanic (45 percent) and Asian American (48 percent) voters who either identified as Democrats or voted for Harris in 2024 — say it is more important to draw more blue seats, even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts. White Democrats and Harris voters appeared slightly less likely to support carving up the districts, with 39 percent supporting such a response, 33 percent opposing it and 28 percent unsure.

Some Democratic leaders reject that drawing politically beneficial maps and preserving majority-minority districts are mutually exclusive.

“As the person that draws the maps and stares at the data, I'm telling you that is not a binary choice,” said John Bisognano, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

“The Democratic Party has always basically been able to win elections, ensure that we are able to be in power in different states because of Black voters,” California Assemblymember Mia Bonta, a Democrat who’s also a Black Latina, said during a news conference. As Democrats push for more aggressive gerrymanders, she said, the party must guarantee “we do not forget and do not disregard the importance of making sure that Black voters are at the center of that.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is ratcheting up pressure on his colleagues to redraw maps ahead of 2028, told POLITICO that the maps in California and Virginia show a “model for moving forward that won't result in the dilution of Black representation.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are eager to amplify the Democratic divisions over mapmaking, as the party continues to go all-in on drawing favorable House districts in an effort to shore up the party’s razor-thin House majority.

“Those numbers seem to suggest there's not a unified position on the path forward for Democrats on this issue,” said Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “I think it shows a split in their coalition, and they're going to need to have everybody on board in order to be successful in repealing or changing these redistricting commissions over the next couple years.”

POLITICO’s Calen Razor and Lindsey Holden contributed to this report.  

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty and AP)

President Donald Trump has made the SAVE America Act a central GOP priority ahead of the midterms. Voters still don't know how to feel about it.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that while many Americans support some core provisions of the SAVE America Act — such as requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote — that support is not overwhelming. And they are far less certain about the sweeping elections bill overall, even as Trump has for months pressured Republican lawmakers to pass it.

Democrats in particular oppose much of the SAVE Act, and many of them are unenthusiastic even about the voter ID provisions that generate the broadest support — a sign that Trump is prioritizing legislation that has little crossover appeal.

A 42 percent plurality of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 back requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote, including when registering by mail. But that number is dwarfed by the three-quarters of Trump 2024 voters who support such a measure, according to the survey conducted by Public First.

Asked about the bill overall — by name, but without providing information on what’s included — just 37 percent of Americans said they support it, and 21 percent oppose it. A larger share, 42 percent, say they neither support nor oppose the SAVE America Act, or are unsure.

Slightly more Americans say the bill will make elections fairer (38 percent) than those who say it will make elections less fair (32 percent). But 30 percent say they don’t know — another sign that their views on the issue are still forming even as the president wields it as a campaign cudgel.

“We are either going to fix” elections, he wrote on his Truth Social recently, casting it in existential terms, “or we won’t have a Country any longer.”

The findings reveal that though voter ID and proof of citizenship are popular, the SAVE America Act has not broken through in the same way. In addition to requiring proof of citizenship, the bill would also require states to regularly review voter lists and remove non-citizens.

“Voter ID is very popular, but the SAVE Act has been loaded up with other stuff,” said Buzz Brockway, a GOP strategist and former state representative in Georgia. “I think Senate Republicans should strip the bill back to Voter ID only. It still won’t pass because of Democratic opposition, but it would be a more popular bill.”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the SAVE America Act is “commonsense legislation supported by the vast majority of Americans … who want to ensure our elections are secure and that only American citizens vote in American elections.”

The SAVE America Act passed the House in February and has stalled in the Senate amid GOP divisions and staunch Democratic opposition. Four Republican senators — Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — recently voted against an amendment that would have helped the legislation get across the finish line as part of a broader reconciliation package, raising new questions about its path forward in a narrowly divided Congress.

Critics of the legislation say it would make it much harder for Americans who lack the proper documentation — such as a paper copy of a birth certificate or passport — to vote.

“The SAVE Act will make it exceedingly and unacceptably difficult for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Americans, to be heard,” Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock said in a brief interview recently. “And so if all the people in the election can't be heard, who are eligible to vote, then that's something other than democracy.”

“I don’t think the American public knows what is in store for them if [the SAVE ACT] passes,” said Hawaii Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono. “Millions of people are going to need to re-register.”

In the absence of movement in Congress, Republicans in some statesare pushing forward with their own efforts to impose proof of citizenship requirements to their voting laws. Several red states, including Arkansas and Kansas, are expected to vote on measures this November that mirror the federal SAVE America Act.

Lawmakers in the battlegrounds of Alaska and Michigan have also garnered the required signatures to put citizenship questions before voters — two states that could test whether Americans’ support for such measures in public opinion polling translates to the ballot box.

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)