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评论|余杰:妖魔化美国才能建构中共的统治合法性

190412-RFA-SC15-4f595091.jpg反美是中国社会的“良好风尚”

中国网上流传一份北京市市场监督管理局给大用国际文化发展(北京)有限公司下达的“行政处罚告知书”,每个读到这份告知书的人,都会寒毛直竖,因为文革的阴风已然吹拂着这片大地。

这份名为“京市监罚告[2024]01316号”的告知书写道:由本局立案调查的你(单位)涉嫌发布违背社会良好风尚广告一案,已调查终结。……经查,你公司于2024年4月21日通过公司微信公众号“大用国际文化”以微信推文形式发布了标题为“雄鹰之路——美国高校&艺博馆夏季研学营”的广告宣传文案,包含“作为美国的政治心脏,白宫和国会大厦是不容错过的景点……国会大厦则是美国立法机构的所在地,其宏伟的建筑和内部的精美装饰,都体现了美国民主制度的庄严与权威”等内容。……你公司发布“体现了美国民主制度的庄严与权威”等文案以推介赴美研学项目的广告宣传行为,存在导向错误,违反了《中华人民共和国广告法》第九条第七项的规定,构成发布违背社会良好风尚广告的违法行为。

“美国国会大厦体现了美国民主制度的庄严与权威”这句话,居然“违背社会良好风尚”,那么,按照中国政府的逻辑,这句话若改写为“美国国会大厦体现了美国民主制度的虚伪与丑陋”,就“符合社会良好风尚”了?原来,中国社会的良好风尚,难道是说谎、攻击、诽谤,是反美、仇美和妖魔化美国?

中国的反美宣传由来有自、源远流长。1950年10月19日,中国派兵跨过鸭绿江,参加韩战,对抗以美军为主体的联合国军。当年11月3日,《人民日报》发表《怎样认识美国》一文,第一部分标题是“仇视美国,因为它是中国人民的死敌”,第二部分的标题是“鄙视美国,因为它是腐朽的帝国主义国家,是全世界反动堕落的大本营”,第三部分的标题是“蔑视美国,因为它是纸老虎,是完全可以打败的”。于是,仇视、鄙视、蔑视美国的“三视”教育运动应运而生。

  “三视”教育的目的是清除社会上存在的亲美、崇美和恐美心理。这种心理,尤其是在与美国关系较密的一些人士——如民族资本家、留美的知识分子、基督教和天主教信徒等——中间普遍存在。

  天主教大学辅仁大学校长、历史学家陈垣,一向以左派自诩,这次当然要跳出来配合“三视”运动。1950年12月8日,陈垣在《人民日报》上发表了一篇题为《美国从来就是我们的敌人》的文章。文中写道:“社会上还有些人有‘崇美’、‘恐美’心理……凡是‘崇美’的,是因为没有民族的自尊心。凡是‘恐美’的,是没有民族的自信心。”尽管如此,这位曾被毛泽东称为“国宝”的学者,最终还是在文革中被迫害致死,也算是死得其所。

  “三视”教育运动进行得轰轰烈烈。全国各种媒体大量刊载相关文章。一份调查统计,1950年中国出版的147种期刊中,第10期、第11期抗美援朝的宣传文字约占16%的篇幅,其中综合时事类期刊更是占了35.5%。文联动员大批作家、艺术家,运用包括电影、戏剧、曲艺、歌曲、诗歌、小说、绘画等各种艺术形势,工厂、农村、机关、街道、学校、军队则利用黑板报、墙报、宣传画、报告会、座谈会、控诉会、声讨会等方式,进行广泛、深入的“三视”宣传。

  “三视”教育运动塑造了整整一代中国人对于美国的认知。至此以后,美国在大部分中国人心中的形象,由抗日战争时期的民主、文明、对中国友好的国家,变成“世界上最反动、最野蛮、最富于侵略性的帝国主义国家”和“中国人民的死敌”。

口头上反美,身体上亲美:美国夏校被华人“攻陷”的秘密

大用国际文化是一家从事游学和留学中介的公司,该公司文案只是中规中矩地介绍其商业项目,并非刻意宣扬与官方立场背道而驰的意识形态,却遭到严厉处罚。这并非孤立的个案。近期,河南、沈阳、甘肃等多地发布紧急通知,要求排查中小学生海外研学团参与情况,将对相关项目“潜藏的意识形态风险”展开全面排查,重点整顿“推崇西式政体、美化西方文明”等内容。

美国是一面镜子,一旦肯定美国的民主自由,就等于同步承认中国的专制独裁,危及中共统治的合法性。所以,妖魔化美国是中共庞大的洗脑工程中的关键环节。中共数十年如一日的洗脑宣传颇有成效,近日发生多起在中国的美国人遭受暴力攻击事件,就是这种洗脑宣传的必然结果。

然而,中国人向来是心口不一,嘴上谎话连篇,身体却很诚实。所谓“反美是工作,留美是生活”,正是“反美斗士”司马南的名言。司马南的老婆、孩子全都移民美国,财产也转移到美国,在美国买了豪宅,他的“反美”表演斩获的“狗粮”足以让他在美国过上衣食无忧的好日子。

1998年,北大中文系女生马楠,在美国总统克林顿访问北大发表演讲时,当面反驳说,“美国人权状况恶劣”。但她一毕业就选择去“人权状况恶劣”的美国留学,真有点“我不入地狱谁入地狱”的勇气,此后她还义无反顾地嫁给了美国白人男士,生下混血孩子。

2009年夏,作家张小波和宋晓军推出畅销书《中国不高兴》,掀起狂热的反美浪潮。但两人用赚到的巨款迅速办理全家移民,在美国和加拿大过起了有豪宅和豪车的奢侈生活。那些购买他们的书的底层劳动者,却只能在水深火热的中国挣扎求存。

曾以一曲《党啊亲爱的妈妈》唱红全中国的歌手殷秀梅,发了大财后,毅然移居美国并入美国藉。她会不会改唱美国国歌《星条旗飘扬》,人们不得而知。

习近平是毛泽东之后反美立场最坚定的中共党魁。但习近平早早就将女儿习明泽送到哈佛大学读书。如果他真的爱女儿,难道一点不怕宝贝女儿被美国的“资产阶级堕落文化”污染?

上行下效,既然习近平都送女儿到美国留学生,中国菁英群体和中产阶级也都将送孩子到美国留学作为荣耀。中国官媒上全是“东升西降”的文宣,却丝毫没有改变中国家长和孩子对美国名校的羡慕和爱戴。

兵马未动,粮草先行。申请美国名校“如蜀道之难难于上青天”(唯有习近平的女儿这样的尊贵身份,才可以免试入读哈佛),送孩子到美国名校的“夏校”沾沾仙气,成了中国家长必须“出血”的项目。

据中国媒体报道,来自上海某双语学校高中部的海伦,在高一升高二的暑假参加了加州大学伯克利分校的夏校。她惊讶地发现,班上二十多个人里有将近一半是国内来的孩子,课上大家心照不宣,下了课聚在一起聊天,完全可以说中文。她表示:“对我们几个中国学生来说,我明显感觉大多数夏校的课程都没有非常难,大家抱着‘文化交流’的心态,来提前体验美国文化,再争取拿封推荐信用作申请大学,我也不例外。”海伦说的“这份体验”,当然不便宜,该夏校项目的费用包含食宿是14500美元,再加上机票等,一个半月下来花费十几万元人民币。对于权贵之家,这只是小钱;但对于普通中产阶级家庭,在中国经济下行的今天,这笔钱需要省吃俭用才能积攒下来。

来自中国的孩子攻陷美国夏校“半壁江山”的情况,同时在美国多所名校发生。康奈尔大学夏校,中国孩子接近一半;耶鲁大学夏校,中国孩子接近一半;宾夕法尼亚大学夏校,中国孩子超三成;相对小众的塔夫茨大学,中国孩子超三成;巴纳德学院夏校,除了老师是美国人以外,学生清一色都是中国孩子,老师实现“反向留学”。

邓小平当年曾感慨说,凡是跟着美国走的国家都富起来了。这是邓小平说的极少数的真话。包括习近平在内的送孩子到美国留学的家长,也都认可这句真话。

(文章只代表特约评论员个人的立场和观点)

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© 路透社图片

资料图片:北京钓鱼台宾馆,工作人员调整中美两国国旗。

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德国提前大选,选项党会从中受益吗?

Hans Pfeifer
2024-11-08T13:47:43.100Z
选项党呼吁尽快举行新一届大选

(德国之声中文网)德国选项党希望加快提前大选的速度。执政联盟破裂之后,选项党主席魏德尔(Alice Weidel) 就发出呼吁称:“联邦总理肖尔茨早已失去了德国民众的信任,他必须为提前大选铺平道路。”

作为极右翼政党,选项党呼吁肖尔茨下周就应接受不信任投票:“冤有头债有主,他必须尽快下台。”

2021年12月底,社民党、绿党和自民党组建执政联盟以来,选项党一直对红黄绿联合政府持强烈的批评态度。选项党指责执政联盟在各个领域的政策都是失败的,其中以移民和外交政策为甚。同美国候任总统特朗普一样,选项党也要求德国在遣返非法移民和保护边境问题上采取极其激进的措施。

去年泽连斯基访问德国的时候,选项党发动了抵制运动。

选项党:停止向乌克兰提供武器

选项党还坚决反对向乌克兰提供武器。2024年6月,乌克兰总统泽连斯基访问德国,并在联邦议院发表演说时,选项党议会党团发起抵制行动,集体缺席。

执政联盟破裂之后,选项党要求立即叫停拟议中的对乌军火及财政援助。该党两位主席之一的克鲁帕拉(Tino Chrupalla) 表示:“我必须提出严正警告,绝不能在联邦大选的最后几个月里继续(相关的援助计划),因为这会进一步毁坏我们的财政预算。”

提前举行选举,有可能会提升选项党在联邦德国的影响力。2021年9月举行的选举中,选项党的得票率为10%。而最新的民调显示,选项党的支持率已经提升至大约17%。

选项党将庇护政策以及移民问题作为其竞选活动的主题

选项党:大规模遣返以及关闭边境

选项党高层的最新表述显示,即将提前举行的联邦大选中,选项党仍会将庇护政策以及移民问题作为其竞选活动的主题,过去多年里,选项党一直对这一议题乐此不疲。周四举行的新闻发布会上,克鲁帕拉表示:“我们必须阻止非法移民继续进入我们的福利体制,遣返那些必须离境的犯罪分子,必须关闭边境。”

为了实现上述目标,选项党一直在游说基民盟、基社盟以及自民党等政党开展合作。选项党主席威德尔在回应执政联盟破裂时表示:“我们敦促基民盟、基社盟以及自民党,是时候承担起公民责任、并同我们进行沟通了。因为我们的背后是数以百万计的选民。”

相关图集:德国选项党成员有哪些极具挑衅性的言论

爱丽丝·魏德尔(Alice Weidel):选项党最著名的公众人物、该党联合主席爱丽丝·魏德尔(Alice Weidel)喜欢挑起争议。2018年,她在联邦议院的一次演讲中发表了好战言论,引起巨大争议,她当时宣称:“布卡、戴头巾的女孩、公共支持的持刀男子以及其他一无是处的人不会保障我们的繁荣、经济增长和社会状态。”
比昂·霍克(Björn Höcke):比昂·霍克是图林根州选项党主席。2017年,他称柏林的大屠杀纪念馆称为“耻辱纪念碑”,并呼吁德国停止为纳粹历史赎罪,从而登上头条新闻。2023 年 7 月,他呼应纳粹言论,称 “欧盟必须亡,这样真正的欧洲才能活”。2019 年,德国一家法院裁定,将霍克描述为法西斯分子并不构成诽谤。
克里斯蒂安·吕特(Christian Lüth):选项党前新闻官克里斯蒂安·吕特(Christian Lüth)在被拍到与一名右翼YouTube 视频博主交谈之前,已因过去的争议性言论面临降职。据称,吕特说:“德国的情况越糟糕,选项党的情况就越好。”他针对移民表示,“我们以后可以随时枪毙他们,或者毒死他们,这不是问题。随你们的便。这对我来说并不重要。”
冯-施托希(Beatrix von Storch):一开始,选项党在竞选中反对欧元和救市,但很快就变成了反移民言论。选项党联邦议院党团副主席冯-施托希(Beatrix von Storch) 2016年曾说:“不在我们的边界止步的人就是攻击者。我们必须抵御攻击者,即使这意味着要向妇女和儿童开枪。”
哈拉尔德·韦尔(Harald Weyel):选项党的丑闻并非都与种族主义有关,有时只是“原形毕露”。2022 年 9 月,选项党联邦议员哈拉尔德·韦尔(Harald Weyel)在以为麦克风关着的时候说,希望德国将遭遇一个能源价格高企的“危急的冬天”,否则“一切都将一如既往”。
马库斯·普雷泽尔(Marcus Pretzell):北威州选项党前主席、德国选项党前领导人弗劳克·佩特里(Frauke Petry)的丈夫普雷策尔(Marcus Pretzell)在 2016 年 12 月柏林圣诞市场发生致命袭击后写道:“这些都是默克尔(造成)的死者。”
安德烈·波根堡(Andre Poggenburg):德国东部萨克森-安哈尔特州的选项党前领导人安德烈·波根堡(Andre Poggenburg)也曾因极端言论而引发关注。2017 年 2 月,他敦促州议会中的其他议员联合采取措施打击极左翼,以便“一劳永逸地摆脱德国种族主体上的这种等级增长”,“德国种族主体”这一措辞显然源自纳粹术语。
亚历山大·高兰德(Alexander Gauland):前选项党议会党团主席高兰德(Alexander Gauland)因2018年6月在选项党青年团发表的一次演讲而受到严厉批评。他说,德国拥有“光荣的历史,而且这段历史比那该死的12年长得多。希特勒和纳粹只是德国1000多年成功历史中的一粒鸟屎”。

“推翻防火墙”

选项党尤其在不断向基民盟基社盟施压,要求他们放弃绝不同选项党合作的固执立场。克鲁帕拉表示,排挤选项党的做法应该告一段落了:“是时候推翻防火墙了,因为德国民众的期许是,解决问题、走出危机。”

不过,选项党同联盟党组建执政联盟的可能性仍微乎其微。因为从上一届联邦大选至今,选项党已经变得越来越激进。基于该党的极右倾向,联邦宪法保护局一直在对其进行密切观察。

此外,绿党因提倡开放式社会模式,一直被选项党视为头号敌人。不过,过去一段时间以来,基民盟基社盟的保守立场也遭致选项党的强力抨击。去年的欧洲议会大选中,选项党候选人克拉( Maximilian Krah)就曾宣布,基民盟是选项党的主要敌人,并发出了“摧毁”基民盟的呼吁。除此之外,选项党高层党魁中拒绝同基民盟开展任何形式合作的,也大有人在。他们抨击基民盟已经演变成了“高高在上的精英政党”。

也正是基于选项党日趋激进化等诸多原因,基民盟主席梅茨今年八月接受“编辑部网络”采访时表示:“我们绝不能同这个政党开展合作,因为这会扼杀基民盟。”

基民盟主席:“我们绝不能同这个政党开展合作,因为这会扼杀基民盟。”

同极右势力之间存在千丝万缕的联系

即将举行的联邦大选中,同选项党相关的一系列丑闻究竟会产生怎样的影响,目前尚无法定论。上周,选项党的三名党员被捕,因为他们涉嫌向一个极右恐怖主义团伙提供支持。选项党表示,以上三人将被开除出党。

种种迹象显示,选项党党员同新纳粹以及极右势力相互勾结的情况已经变得相当普遍。巴伐利亚州议会一名选项党议员也因煽动煽动民族仇恨的极右言行正在接受司法调查。而一名选项党联邦议员则因涉嫌策划政变被拘留审查。

选项党党员同新纳粹以及极右势力相互勾结的情况已经变得相当普遍

由于选项党变得日益激进,由各政党议员组成的一个跨党派小组目前准备提交禁止选项党的提案。这项提案获得议院必要多数的支持情况下,最终仍需联邦宪法法院做出最终裁决。

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wants Fellow Democrats to Look in the Mirror

Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is on track to win re-election in a rural Washington district, says her party needs to stop demonizing others and change the candidates it supports.

© M. Scott Brauer for The New York Times

“The fundamental mistake people make is condescension,” Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez said. “A lot of elected officials get calloused to the ways that they’re disrespecting people.”

Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack

EPA Palestinian stand on a captured Israeli jeep on a street in Gaza (7 October 2023)EPA
Hamas's attack on 7 October triggered the war with Israel

The most prominent Islamic scholar in Gaza has issued a rare, powerful fatwa condemning Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered the devastating war in the Palestinian territory.

Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.

A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah - the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad.

Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.

Jihad means “struggle” in Arabic and in Islam it can be a personal struggle for spiritual improvement or a military struggle against unbelievers.

Dr Dayah adds: “If the pillars, causes, or conditions of jihad are not met, it must be avoided in order to avoid destroying people’s lives. This is something that is easy to guess for our country’s politicians, so the attack must have been avoided.”

For Hamas, the fatwa represents an embarrassing and potentially damaging critique, particularly as the group often justifies its attacks on Israel through religious arguments to garner support from Arab and Muslim communities.

The 7 October attack saw hundreds of Hamas gunmen from Gaza invade southern Israel. About 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken hostage.

Israel responded by launching a military campaign to destroy Hamas, during which more than 43,400 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Dr Dayah argues that the significant civilian casualties in Gaza, together with the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure and humanitarian disaster that have followed the 7 October attack, means that it was in direct contradiction to the teachings of Islam.

Hamas, he says, has failed in its obligations of “keeping fighters away from the homes of defenceless [Palestinian] civilians and their shelters, and providing security and safety as much as possible in the various aspects of life... security, economic, health, and education, and saving enough supplies for them.”

Dr Dayah points to Quranic verses and the Sunnah that set strict conditions for the conduct of jihad, including the necessity of avoiding actions that provoke an excessive and disproportionate response by an opponent.

His fatwa highlights that, according to Islamic law, a military raid should not trigger a response that exceeds the intended benefits of the action.

He also stresses that Muslim leaders are obligated to ensure the safety and well-being of non-combatants, including by providing food, medicine, and refuge to those not involved in the fighting.

“Human life is more precious to God than Mecca,” Dr Dayah states.

His opposition to the 7 October attack is especially significant given his deep influence in Gaza, where he is seen as a key religious figure and a vocal critic of Islamist movements, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

His moderate Salafist beliefs place him in direct opposition to Hamas’s approach to armed resistance and its ties to Shia-ruled Iran.

Salafists are fundamentalists who seek to adhere the example of the Prophet Muhammad and the first generations who followed him.

Dr Dayah has consistently argued for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate that adheres strictly to Islamic law, rather than the political party-based systems that Hamas and other groups advocate.

“Our role model is the Prophet Muhammad, who founded a nation and did not establish political parties that divide the nation. Therefore, parties in Islam are forbidden,” he said in a sermon he gave at a mosque several years ago.

He has also condemned extremism, opposing jihadist groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and has used all of his platforms to issue fatwas on various social and political issues, ranging from commercial transactions, social disputes over marriage and divorce, to the conduct of political violence.

The fatwa adds to the growing internal debate within Gaza and the broader Arab world over the moral and legal implications of Hamas’s actions, and it is likely to fuel further divisions within Palestinian society regarding the use of armed resistance in the ongoing conflict with Israel.

Sheikh Ashraf Ahmed, one of Dr Dayah’s students who was forced to leave his house in Gaza City last year and flee to the south of Gaza with his wife and nine children, told the BBC: “Our scholar [Dr Dayah] refused to leave his home in northern Gaza despite the fears of Israeli air strikes. He chose to fulfil his religious duty by issuing his legal opinion on the attack”.

Ahmed described the fatwa as the most powerful legal judgment of a historical moment. “It’s a deeply well researched document, reflecting Dayah’s commitment to Islamic jurisprudence,” he said.

Fresh Spain floods sweep away dozens of cars near Girona

Catalonia fire service A fireman in a red suit with white reflective stripes and a yellow helmet looks down on a pile of cars, as water flows under them, at night time Catalonia fire service
Catalonia's fire service shared a picture of cars piled up on a bridge

New floods have hit the region of Girona in north-eastern Spain, sweeping away around 30 cars in the town of Cadaqués, according to Spanish media reports.

Videos posted by a local journalist showed a torrent of water gushing down the street and a pile of cars blocking a bridge early on Friday.

No casualties were reported in the latest round of flooding to hit the country.

More than 200 people were killed last week, most in the Valencia area, in one of the worst floods in Europe this century.

The disaster ignited intense anger at the authorities for not issuing emergency alerts sooner.

Flooding in Cadaqués in the early hours of Friday morning caused around 30 vehicles to pile up under a bridge, Catalonia's fire service said on X. No one was injured or trapped, the emergency responders added.

More potentially dangerous weather is expected in the region overnight.

Catalonia's meteorological service issued a rain warning from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon for the area of Alt Emporda, where Cadaqués is located. The weather agency warned rain intensity could exceed 20 mm (0.7 inches) in 30 minutes.

The agency recorded 76.8 mm (3 inches) of rain in Cadaqués on 7 and 8 November, with more than 100 mm (4 inches) logged in two other towns nearby.

Spain received 72% more rainfall from 1 October to 5 November than the normal value for that time period, according to Aemet, Spain's weather agency.

The rainfall, which experts said was intensified by climate change, led to flash floods that trapped people in their cars.

Trump's New York sentencing still could happen even after election victory

Getty Images Donald Trump waits in court during his Manhattan criminal trial in May.Getty Images
Donald Trump waits in court during his Manhattan criminal trial in May.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House effectively slammed the door on the two cases involving federal criminal charges against him.

A state case against him for allegedly conspiring to interfere with Georgia’s election in 2020 will go on hold until after his term in office ends - if it's still alive by then.

But next week, the fate of the remaining case – his conviction on 34 felony counts in New York – will be determined. It could stand, or it could be swept away in the same political and legal tide that has allowed him to escape the others.

Justice Juan Merchan will decide by Tuesday whether to grant Trump’s pre-election request to throw out his conviction. Should Justice Merchan side with Trump, it would almost wipe clean his slate of criminal woes.

But should the judge uphold the conviction, he would proceed to sentencing later this month. It would likely spark even more delay attempts from Trump and open up an unprecedented new front for America’s criminal justice system.

“This is truly uncharted territory,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at the New York Law School.

Will Trump’s case get thrown out?

In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records. The convictions stemmed from Trump’s attempt to cover up reimbursements to his ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, who in 2016 paid off an adult film star to remain silent about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump.

Trump’s lawyers argue that a recent US Supreme Court ruling granting presidents a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution applies to certain aspects of his New York case, and therefore the indictment and conviction should be tossed.

During the trial, Justice Merchan dismissed attempts by Trump’s lawyers to throw out the case on immunity grounds. But that was before the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump’s favour this summer – and before Trump decisively won re-election.

Justice Merchan has set a deadline of 12 November to decide whether to grant Trump’s request.

If he throws out the conviction, that will be the end of the case.

But if he denies the defense's request, Trump’s much-delayed sentencing will remain scheduled for 26 November.

An unprecedented sentencing – with jail unlikely

Even if Justice Merchan upholds the conviction and keeps the scheduled sentencing, Trump’s team is almost certain to seek more delays and appeals.

Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead attorney, did not respond to inquiries about whether he planned to seek a delay.

Because Trump will be tied up with a presidential transition and the legal questions about sentencing a president are so complex, some scholars see very little chance it will stay on the calendar.

“I think the most likely outcome in the state case is the judge putting off sentencing until after Trump's term in office,” said Daniel Charles Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

“To actually impose a sentence would raise any number of messy issues in the short term,” including political ones, he said.

If Trump does find himself in a Manhattan courtroom later this month, deciding his fate still would be an unprecedented challenge.

Under the law, Trump faces a range of sentences, including fines, probation and up to four years in prison. But many options are rendered impractical by his imminent return to the White House.

“Sentencing a sitting president may be one of the most complicated, fraught sentencing decisions you can imagine,” Ms Cominsky said.

“It’s hard to imagine what sentence could be imposed that would not impede a president’s ability to do their job or compromise the president’s security."

Few expect Justice Merchan to sentence Trump to a stint behind bars at this point.

“He’s a 78-year old man with no criminal history, who has been convicted of a non-violent felony,” said retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel. “I don’t think a judge would give a person under those sentences an incarceration sentence.”

Even if Justice Merchan did reach for such a sentence, Trump’s team would almost certainly appeal it, delaying actual punishment.

Trump could leave a sentencing hearing with the legal equivalent of a slap on the wrist. Justice Merchan could ask the former president to pay a relatively small fine in the three- or four-figure range.

He could also give Trump an unconditional discharge; “basically, goodbye,” as Justice Kiesel puts it.

Trump has no pardon power here

The only thing that is certain is that Trump cannot make this conviction go away on his own.

Trump has explored the possibility of pardoning himself from potential criminal charges in the past, and could do so for his federal indictments when he becomes president in January.

But he cannot pardon himself in New York, as the conviction occurred in state court.

His fate, at the moment, is in the hands of the court. But regardless of the outcome, Trump will likely avoid the most serious punishments facing him.

“He is a very lucky man,” Justice Kiesel said.

Susie Wiles: Who is Trump’s new 'ice maiden' chief of staff?

Reuters Susie Wiles seen at a Trump rallyReuters

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced his campaign manager, Susan Summerall Wiles, will serve as his White House chief of staff when he takes over the presidency next year.

In a statement, Trump said that Wiles "just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history" and "is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected".

"It is a well deserved honour to have Susie as the first-ever female chief of staff in United States history," he continued. "I have no doubt that she will make our country proud.”

Wiles, 67, is the first woman to be appointed White House chief of staff.

The Trump transition team is currently working to choose top members of the incoming Republican administration, including the heads of all 15 executive departments, such as the secretaries of state and defence, from 20 January.

In his victory speech this week, Trump referred to Wiles as "the ice maiden" as she stood behind him on stage.

She operates mostly “in the back”, the president-elect said, but she is known as one of the most feared political operatives in the US.

"Susie will continue to work tirelessly to Make America Great Again," he added in his statement on Thursday, referring to his oft-repeated campaign slogan.

Who is Susie Wiles?

Getty Images Susie Wiles appears on stage with Donald Trump during his victory speech this week in FlordiaGetty Images
Susie Wiles briefly appeared alongside Donald Trump at his election victory event

A profile by Politico earlier this year described Susie Wiles as feared but little known.

Less than a year after Wiles started working in politics, she joined Ronald Reagan’s campaign ahead of his 1980 election.

She went on to play a key role in transforming politics in Florida, where she lives.

In 2010, she turned Rick Scott, a then-businessman with little political experience, into Florida’s governor in just seven months. Scott is now a US senator.

Wiles met Trump during the 2015 Republican presidential primary and became the co-chair of his Florida campaign. He went on to win the state over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, who put her in charge of his successful gubernatorial race two years later, described Wiles as “the best in the business”.

Wiles worked on the Trump campaign alongside Chris LaCivita, a veteran of Republican politics with decades of experience.

The two worked with Trump to formulate a winning presidential primary strategy.

In her Politico profile, the 67-year-old grandmother - who is the daughter of late American football player and broadcaster Pat Summerall - said that she comes from a "traditional" political background.

“In my early career things like manners mattered and there was an expected level of decorum," she said, describing the Republican party as significantly different than the one of several decades ago.

"And so I get it that the GOP of today is different," she said, referring to the Republican party, who are also called the Grand Old Party (GOP).

"There are changes we must live with in order to get done the things we’re trying to do."

The chief of staff is considered to be the president's top aide, and plays a crucial role in every president's administration.

They essentially serve as the manager of the White House and are responsible for putting together a president's staff. A chief leads the staff through the Executive Office of the President and oversees all daily operations and staff activities.

They also advise presidents on policy issues and are responsible for directing and overseeing policy development.

BBC graphic saying more on the election
BBC graphic of the US flag

Baby milk price promotion ban should end, watchdog suggests

Getty Images A close up of a baby being fed from a bottle by its motherGetty Images

Parents have been "paying over the odds" for baby milk because of a lack of competition in the formula market, a government watchdog has said.

It stopped short of recommending price controls, but said they remain a possibility, adding parents have been "shouldering the costs" of price increases in the market for years.

The Competition and Markets Authority's (CMA) interim report said the baby milk industry needed a shake-up to help parents struggling to afford it.

"We're concerned many parents opt for more expensive products, equating higher costs with better quality for their baby," CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said.

Just two companies - Danone and Nestle - control the majority of the UK market.

Both firms have previously welcomed the investigation.

Fresh Spain floods sweep away dozens of cars near Girona

Catalonia fire service A fireman in a red suit with white reflective stripes and a yellow helmet looks down on a pile of cars, as water flows under them, at night time Catalonia fire service
Catalonia's fire service shared a picture of cars piled up on a bridge

New floods have hit the region of Girona in north-eastern Spain, sweeping away around 30 cars in the town of Cadaqués, according to Spanish media reports.

Videos posted by a local journalist showed a torrent of water gushing down the street and a pile of cars blocking a bridge early on Friday.

No casualties were reported in the latest round of flooding to hit the country.

More than 200 people were killed last week, most in the Valencia area, in one of the worst floods in Europe this century.

The disaster ignited intense anger at the authorities for not issuing emergency alerts sooner.

Flooding in Cadaqués in the early hours of Friday morning caused around 30 vehicles to pile up under a bridge, Catalonia's fire service said on X. No one was injured or trapped, the emergency responders added.

More potentially dangerous weather is expected in the region overnight.

Catalonia's meteorological service issued a rain warning from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon for the area of Alt Emporda, where Cadaqués is located. The weather agency warned rain intensity could exceed 20 mm (0.7 inches) in 30 minutes.

The agency recorded 76.8 mm (3 inches) of rain in Cadaqués on 7 and 8 November, with more than 100 mm (4 inches) logged in two other towns nearby.

Spain received 72% more rainfall from 1 October to 5 November than the normal value for that time period, according to Aemet, Spain's weather agency.

The rainfall, which experts said was intensified by climate change, led to flash floods that trapped people in their cars.

Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack

EPA Palestinian stand on a captured Israeli jeep on a street in Gaza (7 October 2023)EPA
Hamas's attack on 7 October triggered the war with Israel

The most prominent Islamic scholar in Gaza has issued a rare, powerful fatwa condemning Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered the devastating war in the Palestinian territory.

Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.

A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah - the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad.

Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.

Jihad means “struggle” in Arabic and in Islam it can be a personal struggle for spiritual improvement or a military struggle against unbelievers.

Dr Dayah adds: “If the pillars, causes, or conditions of jihad are not met, it must be avoided in order to avoid destroying people’s lives. This is something that is easy to guess for our country’s politicians, so the attack must have been avoided.”

For Hamas, the fatwa represents an embarrassing and potentially damaging critique, particularly as the group often justifies its attacks on Israel through religious arguments to garner support from Arab and Muslim communities.

The 7 October attack saw hundreds of Hamas gunmen from Gaza invade southern Israel. About 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken hostage.

Israel responded by launching a military campaign to destroy Hamas, during which more than 43,400 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Dr Dayah argues that the significant civilian casualties in Gaza, together with the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure and humanitarian disaster that have followed the 7 October attack, means that it was in direct contradiction to the teachings of Islam.

Hamas, he says, has failed in its obligations of “keeping fighters away from the homes of defenceless [Palestinian] civilians and their shelters, and providing security and safety as much as possible in the various aspects of life... security, economic, health, and education, and saving enough supplies for them.”

Dr Dayah points to Quranic verses and the Sunnah that set strict conditions for the conduct of jihad, including the necessity of avoiding actions that provoke an excessive and disproportionate response by an opponent.

His fatwa highlights that, according to Islamic law, a military raid should not trigger a response that exceeds the intended benefits of the action.

He also stresses that Muslim leaders are obligated to ensure the safety and well-being of non-combatants, including by providing food, medicine, and refuge to those not involved in the fighting.

“Human life is more precious to God than Mecca,” Dr Dayah states.

His opposition to the 7 October attack is especially significant given his deep influence in Gaza, where he is seen as a key religious figure and a vocal critic of Islamist movements, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

His moderate Salafist beliefs place him in direct opposition to Hamas’s approach to armed resistance and its ties to Shia-ruled Iran.

Salafists are fundamentalists who seek to adhere the example of the Prophet Muhammad and the first generations who followed him.

Dr Dayah has consistently argued for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate that adheres strictly to Islamic law, rather than the political party-based systems that Hamas and other groups advocate.

“Our role model is the Prophet Muhammad, who founded a nation and did not establish political parties that divide the nation. Therefore, parties in Islam are forbidden,” he said in a sermon he gave at a mosque several years ago.

He has also condemned extremism, opposing jihadist groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and has used all of his platforms to issue fatwas on various social and political issues, ranging from commercial transactions, social disputes over marriage and divorce, to the conduct of political violence.

The fatwa adds to the growing internal debate within Gaza and the broader Arab world over the moral and legal implications of Hamas’s actions, and it is likely to fuel further divisions within Palestinian society regarding the use of armed resistance in the ongoing conflict with Israel.

Sheikh Ashraf Ahmed, one of Dr Dayah’s students who was forced to leave his house in Gaza City last year and flee to the south of Gaza with his wife and nine children, told the BBC: “Our scholar [Dr Dayah] refused to leave his home in northern Gaza despite the fears of Israeli air strikes. He chose to fulfil his religious duty by issuing his legal opinion on the attack”.

Ahmed described the fatwa as the most powerful legal judgment of a historical moment. “It’s a deeply well researched document, reflecting Dayah’s commitment to Islamic jurisprudence,” he said.

How a Chinese maths 'prodigy' unravelled in cheating storm

Getty Images Rear view of middle school students studying in classroom.Getty Images
The maths contest results prompted a nationwide debate about China's schools and academic pathways

A 17-year-old girl in China hailed as a genius in a mathematics contest cheated, competition organisers have said - ending months of scepticism over her stellar results.

Jiang Ping, a fashion design student from a rural town in Jiangsu province, made headlines in June when she came 12th in the qualifiers of an international maths contest run by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.

She was the first finalist since the competition began in 2018 to have come from a lowly vocational school, Chinese media reported. The vast majority of the 800 finalists came from elite universities.

Jiang's results turned her into an overnight sensation, and she was labelled a "prodigy" in the press and on social media.

Under China's notoriously cut-throat education system, academic excellence is lauded. Many people online were encouraged by Jiang's results, seeing them as proof that students from vocational institutes could still excel academically.

However, as doubt surrounding her abilities snowballed, competition organisers said last Sunday that Jiang had violated competition rules in the preliminary round, by receiving help from her teacher, who was also a contestant himself.

“This has exposed problems like inadequacies in the competition format and the lack of rigour in supervision. We sincerely apologise,” organisers said in a statement.

According to the final results announced on Sunday, neither Jiang nor her teacher was among 86 winners in the competition.

The rise of a maths sensation

The annual mathematics contest is open to contestants from institutions worldwide and hosted by Damo Academy, Alibaba’s research institute.

This year, Jiang, a student at Jiangsu Lianshui Secondary Vocational School, outperformed other finalists from some of the world’s most prestigious institutions — including Peking University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Oxford.

She had chosen to study at the vocational school both because she was interested in fashion design, and because her sister and friends were there, said local media outlets.

Jiang's results and unconventional educational background soon grabbed nationwide attention. Her story was featured in a video produced by Damo Academy and she was interviewed by news outlets across the country.

“Learning maths is bumpy, but every time I solve the problems I feel quite happy,” she told the state-run People’s Daily. “No matter what the future holds, I will keep learning.”

Jiang’s teacher, Wang Runqiu, was also thrust into the spotlight, hailed as an educator who noticed and encouraged her passion for maths. Speaking to the media, he described her as an attentive student who had learnt advanced mathematics herself.

"I have encountered many setbacks in the process of learning maths,” he said. “So, I want to do everything I can to help my students and let them know that there are other possibilities in the future.”

But along with an outpouring of praise for Jiang and her teacher, the student’s story also sparked a discussion about whether China’s education system did enough to support gifted students in less academic pathways - especially those who may not have received similar recognition by their teachers.

China's education system focuses much of its resources on those taking the "Gaokao" - the notoriously difficult exam that students need to take in order to get into university. Those in vocational schools had long faced restrictions in taking the gaokao and enrolling in regular universities, until an education reform in 2022 offered vocational school students an alternative university entrance exam.

An earlier op-ed in state-news media outlet Xinhua said that Jiang's results “hint[ed] at an awkward truth: even youths as talented as her may be easily buried without good education credentials”.

'She was not the mastermind'

But as Jiang’s fame burgeoned, criticism and scepticism surrounding her skills also started to bubble.

In June, dozens of other finalists published a joint letter they wrote to the competition organising committee demanding an investigation into Jiang. They also called for her answers to the preliminary test questions to be made public.

The finalists alleged that Jiang had made “several apparent writing mistakes” in an online video and that she “seemed unfamiliar with these mathematical expressions and symbols”.

While the preliminary round of the competition allowed participants to use programming software, the final round was a closed-book exam. The results of the finals, which were initially set to be released in August, were postponed for several months.

When the results were finally made public on Sunday, Jiang was not among the 86 winners of the final round.

Her school also confirmed in a statement on Sunday that Jiang had been helped by her teacher Wang, and that Wang had been given a warning and disqualified from teachers’ awards for the year. The statement also called for leniency and protection for the teenager.

Attempts by the BBC to contact Jiang's family were unsuccessful. A social media account once used by her mother is now defunct, and a phone number linked to her father has been deactivated. Multiple phone calls by the BBC to Jiang's school went unanswered, and a village official declined to discuss Jiang when contacted by the BBC.

While Sunday’s revelation unleashed a wave of criticism of Jiang and her teacher, many social media users also spoke up for the teenager, arguing the bigger responsibility lay with her school and teacher.

“Jiang Ping is not innocent, that’s without question. But who are the worst parties in this?” reads a post on Weibo. “The adults brought this child along to do a bad deed, and let her suffer all the consequences.”

“Even if the whole thing was faked, Jiang Ping was not the mastermind behind it,” another wrote on Weibo. “She should not be burned at the stake.”

From Musk to Wiles: What new Trump administration may look like

Getty Images A composite photograph of Elon Musk, wearing his signature blazer and t-shirt combination as he's interviewed, Susie Wiles, who has a cropped grey hair do, in a black turtleneck and red jacket, and RFK Jr with short grey hair, wearing a navy tie with flamingos on and a grey suitGetty Images
Elon Musk and RFK Jr are among Trump's most prominent backers, while Susie Wiles (centre) co-managed his election campaign

Donald Trump's transition team is already vetting potential candidates who could serve in his administration when he returns to the White House in January.

On Thursday, he made the first announcement naming his campaign co-manager Susan Summerall Wiles as his White House chief of staff.

Many of the figures who served under Trump in his first term do not plan to return, though a handful of loyalists are rumoured to be making a comeback.

But the US president-elect is now surrounded by a new cast of characters who may fill his cabinet, staff his White House and serve in key roles across government.

Here is a look at the some of the names being floated for the top jobs.

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Reuters RFK Jr, who has grey hair, wears a grey suit, with a white shirt and navy patterned tie, as he waves at crowds at a Trump rally in MichiganReuters

The past two years have been quite a journey for the nephew of former President John F Kennedy.

An environmental lawyer by trade, he ran for president as a Democrat, with most of his family speaking out against his anti-vaccine views and conspiracy theories as they endorsed Joe Biden's re-election.

He then switched to an independent candidacy but, failing to gain traction amid a series of controversies, dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

In the last two months of the 2024 election cycle, he spearheaded a Trump campaign initiative called "Make America Healthy Again".

Trump recently promised he would play a major role related to public health agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Safety Administration (FDA).

RFK Jr, as he is known, recently asserted he would push to remove fluoride from drinking water because "it's a very bad way to deliver it into our systems" - though this has been challenged by some experts.

And in an interview with NBC News, Kennedy rejected the idea that he was "anti-vaccine", saying he wouldn't "take away anybody's vaccines" but rather provide them with "the best information" to make their own choices.

Rather than a formal cabinet position, Kennedy used the interview to suggest he could take on a broader role within the White House.

Susie Wiles

Reuters Susie Wiles, who has a grey cropped haircut, wears gold hoop earrings with a gold pendant necklace and a black top underneath a baby blue blazer which has a white and gold brooch on it as she looks on during a Trump rallyReuters

Trump's landslide victory over Kamala Harris was masterminded by campaign co-chairs Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, who he referred to in his victory speech on Wednesday as "the ice baby".

She has since been confirmed to be the incoming chief of staff under the second Trump administration - Trump's first confirmed appointment for his second term - making her the first woman to take on the role.

Wiles, who Trump claimed "likes to stay in the background”, is considered one of the most feared and respected political operatives in the country.

Less than a year after she started working in politics, she worked on Ronald Reagan’s successful 1980 presidential campaign and later became a scheduler in his White House.

In 2010, she turned Rick Scott, a then-businessman with little political experience, into Florida’s governor in just seven months. Scott is now a US senator.

Wiles met Trump during the 2015 Republican presidential primary and she became the co-chair of his Florida campaign, at the time considered a swing state. Trump went on to narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton there in 2016.

Wiles has been commended by Republicans for her ability to command respect and check the big egos of those in the president-elect's orbit, which could enable her to impose a sense of order that none of his four previous chiefs of staff could.

Elon Musk

Reuters Elon Musk, wearing a black 'Make America Great Again' cap, a black blazer and grey emblazoned t-shirt, points to a sign for Donald Trump's presidential campaign as he speaks at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania Reuters

The world's richest man announced his support for the former president earlier this year, despite saying in 2022 that "it's time for Trump to hang up his hat and sail into the sunset".

The tech billionaire has since emerged as one of the most visible and well-known backers of Trump and donated more than $119m (£91.6m) this election cycle to America PAC - a political action committee he created to support the former president.

Musk, the head of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of the social media platform X, also launched a voter registration drive that included a $1m (£771,000) give-away to a random swing-state voter each day during the closing stretch of the campaign.

Since registering as a Republican ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Musk has been increasingly vocal on issues including illegal immigration and transgender rights.

Both Musk and Trump have concentrated on the idea of him leading a new "Department of Government Efficiency", where he would cut costs, reform regulations and streamline what he calls a "massive, suffocating federal bureaucracy".

The would-be agency's acronym - DOGE - is a playful reference to a "meme-coin" cryptocurrency Musk has previously promoted.

Mike Pompeo

Reuters Mike Pompeo, who has neat grey hair brushed to the side, wears a grey suit, white shirt and red tie as he testifies before the House Select Committee in WashingtonReuters

The former Kansas congressman served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and then secretary of state during Trump's first administration.

A foreign policy hawk and a fierce supporter of Israel, he played a highly visible role in moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He was among the key players in the implementation of the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

He remained a loyal defender of his boss, joking that there would be "a smooth transition to a second Trump administration" amid Trump's false claims of election fraud in late 2020.

He has been tipped as a top contender for the role of defence secretary, alongside Michael Waltz, a Florida lawmaker and military veteran who sits on the armed services committee in the US House of Representatives.

Richard Grenell

Reuters Richard Grenell, who has short brown hair, wears a blue suit jacket and white shirt, as she stands in front of a microphone onstage at a conventionReuters

Richard Grenell served as Trump's ambassador to Germany, special envoy to the Balkans and his acting director of national intelligence.

The Republican was also heavily involved in Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, in the swing state of Nevada.

Trump prizes Grenell's loyalty and has described him as "my envoy".

In September, he sat in on Trump's private meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The former president has often claimed he will end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours" of taking office and Grenell has advocated for setting up an autonomous zone in eastern Ukraine as a means to that end - an idea seen as unacceptable by Kyiv.

He's considered a contender for secretary of state or national security advisor, a position that does not require Senate confirmation.

Karoline Leavitt

Reuters Karoline Leavitt, who has straight blonde shoulder-length hair, and wears a silver cross necklace with a cream coat, beams during a rally in 2022Reuters
Karoline Leavitt was Trump campaign's spokeswoman

The Trump 2024 campaign's national press secretary previously served in his White House press office, as an assistant press secretary.

The 27-year-old Gen-Zer made a bid to become the youngest woman ever elected to the US Congress in 2022, to represent a seat in her home state of New Hampshire, but fell short.

She is tipped to become the White House press secretary - the most public-facing position in the cabinet.

Tom Homan

Getty Images A photo of Tom Homan delivering an address in Salem, Ohio in March 2024Getty Images

Tom Homan served as the acting director of the US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (Ice) during the first Trump administration, where he was a proponent of separating migrant children from their parents as a way to deter illegal crossings.

At the time, he made headlines for saying politicians who support sanctuary city policies should be charged with crimes. He later resigned from his Ice position in 2018, mid-way through the Trump presidency.

He has since emerged as a key figure in developing Trump's mass migrant deportation plan, and has been floated as a potential pick to head the Department of Homeland Security.

Homan spoke on the deportation plan last month in an interview with BBC's US partner CBS News, saying that "it's not going to be - a mass sweep of neighbourhoods."

"They'll be targeted arrests. We’ll know who we’re going to arrest, where we’re most likely to find ‘em based on numerous, you know, investigative processes," he said.

Trump's New York sentencing still could happen even after election victory

Getty Images Donald Trump waits in court during his Manhattan criminal trial in May.Getty Images
Donald Trump waits in court during his Manhattan criminal trial in May.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House effectively slammed the door on the two cases involving federal criminal charges against him.

A state case against him for allegedly conspiring to interfere with Georgia’s election in 2020 will go on hold until after his term in office ends - if it's still alive by then.

But next week, the fate of the remaining case – his conviction on 34 felony counts in New York – will be determined. It could stand, or it could be swept away in the same political and legal tide that has allowed him to escape the others.

Justice Juan Merchan will decide by Tuesday whether to grant Trump’s pre-election request to throw out his conviction. Should Justice Merchan side with Trump, it would almost wipe clean his slate of criminal woes.

But should the judge uphold the conviction, he would proceed to sentencing later this month. It would likely spark even more delay attempts from Trump and open up an unprecedented new front for America’s criminal justice system.

“This is truly uncharted territory,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at the New York Law School.

Will Trump’s case get thrown out?

In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records. The convictions stemmed from Trump’s attempt to cover up reimbursements to his ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, who in 2016 paid off an adult film star to remain silent about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump.

Trump’s lawyers argue that a recent US Supreme Court ruling granting presidents a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution applies to certain aspects of his New York case, and therefore the indictment and conviction should be tossed.

During the trial, Justice Merchan dismissed attempts by Trump’s lawyers to throw out the case on immunity grounds. But that was before the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump’s favour this summer – and before Trump decisively won re-election.

Justice Merchan has set a deadline of 12 November to decide whether to grant Trump’s request.

If he throws out the conviction, that will be the end of the case.

But if he denies the defense's request, Trump’s much-delayed sentencing will remain scheduled for 26 November.

An unprecedented sentencing – with jail unlikely

Even if Justice Merchan upholds the conviction and keeps the scheduled sentencing, Trump’s team is almost certain to seek more delays and appeals.

Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead attorney, did not respond to inquiries about whether he planned to seek a delay.

Because Trump will be tied up with a presidential transition and the legal questions about sentencing a president are so complex, some scholars see very little chance it will stay on the calendar.

“I think the most likely outcome in the state case is the judge putting off sentencing until after Trump's term in office,” said Daniel Charles Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

“To actually impose a sentence would raise any number of messy issues in the short term,” including political ones, he said.

If Trump does find himself in a Manhattan courtroom later this month, deciding his fate still would be an unprecedented challenge.

Under the law, Trump faces a range of sentences, including fines, probation and up to four years in prison. But many options are rendered impractical by his imminent return to the White House.

“Sentencing a sitting president may be one of the most complicated, fraught sentencing decisions you can imagine,” Ms Cominsky said.

“It’s hard to imagine what sentence could be imposed that would not impede a president’s ability to do their job or compromise the president’s security."

Few expect Justice Merchan to sentence Trump to a stint behind bars at this point.

“He’s a 78-year old man with no criminal history, who has been convicted of a non-violent felony,” said retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel. “I don’t think a judge would give a person under those sentences an incarceration sentence.”

Even if Justice Merchan did reach for such a sentence, Trump’s team would almost certainly appeal it, delaying actual punishment.

Trump could leave a sentencing hearing with the legal equivalent of a slap on the wrist. Justice Merchan could ask the former president to pay a relatively small fine in the three- or four-figure range.

He could also give Trump an unconditional discharge; “basically, goodbye,” as Justice Kiesel puts it.

Trump has no pardon power here

The only thing that is certain is that Trump cannot make this conviction go away on his own.

Trump has explored the possibility of pardoning himself from potential criminal charges in the past, and could do so for his federal indictments when he becomes president in January.

But he cannot pardon himself in New York, as the conviction occurred in state court.

His fate, at the moment, is in the hands of the court. But regardless of the outcome, Trump will likely avoid the most serious punishments facing him.

“He is a very lucky man,” Justice Kiesel said.

美大选后 台经济部称将拟措施助台企撤中


2024-11-08T12:44:20.682Z
位于新竹市的联华电子半导体工厂

(德国之声中文网)台湾经济部长郭智辉周四(11月8日)指出,他认为特朗普上任之后的贸易政策对台湾影响不会太剧烈,但对在中国的台商会产生较大的影响。

过去四十年,台湾企业受益于较低的成本,在中国投资了数十亿美元。而即将在明年一月回归担任美国总统的特朗普在竞选期间曾多次谈及,未来将会对进口产品征收10%到20%的关税。对于中国制的产品,特朗普更威胁要征收高达60%的关税。

特朗普当选或加速台商返台

郭智辉说,台湾政府已经做好准备,包括将尽快提出协助台企将生产基地从中国转出的措施,以降低美国可能实施的高关税政策冲击。他在立法院进行政策报告时表示:「经济部不是等着接招,我们对所有情况的变异随时掌握」。郭智辉也提到,特朗普当选有可能让在中国的台商加速回流台湾。

事实上在近几年来,由于中国经济低迷、国际政经情势等因素,不少台湾企业早已逐渐减少赴中投资,甚至将业务移出中国。根据台湾经济部今年初公布的数据显示,截止至2023年11月为止,台商对中国大陆(不含港澳)的年度投资额仅有29亿美元,较前一年减少了近34%,且仅占该年度台商海外投资总额的12%。

新政策助力台企业出海

郭智辉也指出,在他今年五月上任后没多久就推动「境外关内」,准备把供应链带到海外,这也是因应方式之一。所谓「境外关内」即由政府主导,在外国设立园区供企业进驻、在当地生产商品,同時帮助台湾企业解决原料、人才、物流、关税等问题。

当被问到对于特朗普称「台湾抢走美国的芯片生意」的看法,郭智辉强调,「我们不是抢,而是在替美国人生产」。他认为,台湾和美国在半导体方面是互补的,台湾拥有完整的半导体供应链,而设计则是美国的强项。他也补充,台湾出口至美国的多为高科技产品,台积电也会持续在美国扩大投资,这些都是在帮助美国建立产业基础。

(路透社、联合报、中央社等)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。 任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

多数德国人希望尽快举行新一届大选


2024-11-08T11:25:23.668Z
以基民盟主席默尔茨为代表的在野党党首纷纷催促肖尔茨下周就提议联邦议院举行信任投票。

(德国之声中文网)在德国红绿灯“政治联姻”宣告破裂之后,在野党基民盟主席默尔茨(Friedrich Merz)已经一再要求迅速举行新一届联邦议院选举。本周五(11月8日),他再次呼吁联邦总理肖尔茨,下周三(13日)就提请联邦议院对现任柏林政府做出信任投票。肖尔茨在过去两天一直坚持要等到明年1月15日再举行信任投票。

联邦议院对政府进行信任投票是举行新一届大选的前提。在无法赢得联邦议院信任的情况下,联邦总理可以提请联邦总统解散联邦议院。按照德国基本法中的相关规定,联邦议院解散后60天之内必须举行新的大选。根据总理肖尔茨提出的时间表,新一届大选有可能在明年3月底举行。

在何时举行信任投票的问题上,默尔茨与肖尔茨之间存在巨大分歧。默尔茨抱怨肖尔茨没有对为什么要等两个月后,而不是下周就要求举行信任投票做出合理的解释。

除了基民盟之外,选项党、“莎拉·瓦根克内希特联盟”(BSW)和被赶出联合政府的自民党也都要求下周就举行信任投票。

BSW党首瓦根克内希特在接受法新社采访时说:“红绿灯政府出现的人事混乱局面表明新的选举不能再推迟。总理早就失去了对一切的控制,民众对此已经无法再理解。”

被肖尔茨解职的前财政部长、自民党主席林德纳周三晚间也表示支持“立即进行信任投票和新的选举”。他说,这不仅“对民主很重要…… 我们的国家不能再浪费任何时间”。

选项党领导人韦德尔周三晚间也向肖尔茨提出迅速举行信任投票,“以便让这个国家能够尽快重新开始”。她还呼吁联盟党和自民党与选项党达成协议,以便“建立一个没有社民党和绿党的政府”。

德国联邦总统施泰因迈尔向自民党前部长们发出“离职证书”。

周四,德国联邦总统施泰因迈尔向自民党籍的前财政部长林德纳、前教育部长施塔克-瓦青格(Bettina Stark-Watzinger)和前司法部长布施曼(Marco Buschmann)发放了“离职证书”。

同样为自民党成员的数字和交通部长维辛(Volker Wissing)宣布退党,得以留任,同时还兼任司法部长。

社民党籍的库基斯(Jörg Kukies)接任财政部长。

绿党籍的农业部长厄兹代米尔(Cem Özdemir)同时兼任教育部长。

如果周日就举行联邦大选……

根据德国电视二台周五(11月8日)发布的“政治晴雨表”民调,30%的受访者支持在明年3月举行新的联邦议院大选,但54%的受访者更倾向于大选更早举行。民调显示,84%的受访者认为提前举行联邦选举是正确做法,13%的受访者表示反对。此外,12%的受访者认为联邦议院的选举应该按照原定的时间表举行,也就是应等到明年9月再举行。

按照这项民调,如果周日就举行大选,各党派的得票率将是:社民党16%,基民盟和基社盟组成的联盟党33%,绿党12%,自由民主党3%,选项党18%,左翼党4%,“莎拉·瓦根克内希特联盟”(BSW)6%,其他政党合计8%。

(德新社、法新社等)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

Susie Wiles appointed - who else could be in Trump's new administration?

Getty Images A composite photograph of Elon Musk, wearing his signature blazer and t-shirt combination as he's interviewed, Susie Wiles, who has a cropped grey hair do, in a black turtleneck and red jacket, and RFK Jr with short grey hair, wearing a navy tie with flamingos on and a grey suitGetty Images
Elon Musk and RFK Jr are among Trump's most prominent backers, while Susie Wiles (centre) co-managed his election campaign

Donald Trump's transition team is already vetting potential candidates who could serve in his administration when he returns to the White House in January.

On Thursday, he made the first announcement naming his campaign co-manager Susan Summerall Wiles as his White House chief of staff.

Many of the figures who served under Trump in his first term do not plan to return, though a handful of loyalists are rumoured to be making a comeback.

But the US president-elect is now surrounded by a new cast of characters who may fill his cabinet, staff his White House and serve in key roles across government.

Here is a look at the some of the names being floated for the top jobs.

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Reuters RFK Jr, who has grey hair, wears a grey suit, with a white shirt and navy patterned tie, as he waves at crowds at a Trump rally in MichiganReuters

The past two years have been quite a journey for the nephew of former President John F Kennedy.

An environmental lawyer by trade, he ran for president as a Democrat, with most of his family speaking out against his anti-vaccine views and conspiracy theories as they endorsed Joe Biden's re-election.

He then switched to an independent candidacy but, failing to gain traction amid a series of controversies, dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

In the last two months of the 2024 election cycle, he spearheaded a Trump campaign initiative called "Make America Healthy Again".

Trump recently promised he would play a major role related to public health agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Safety Administration (FDA).

RFK Jr, as he is known, recently asserted he would push to remove fluoride from drinking water because "it's a very bad way to deliver it into our systems" - though this has been challenged by some experts.

And in an interview with NBC News, Kennedy rejected the idea that he was "anti-vaccine", saying he wouldn't "take away anybody's vaccines" but rather provide them with "the best information" to make their own choices.

Rather than a formal cabinet position, Kennedy used the interview to suggest he could take on a broader role within the White House.

Susie Wiles

Reuters Susie Wiles, who has a grey cropped haircut, wears gold hoop earrings with a gold pendant necklace and a black top underneath a baby blue blazer which has a white and gold brooch on it as she looks on during a Trump rallyReuters

Trump's landslide victory over Kamala Harris was masterminded by campaign co-chairs Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, who he referred to in his victory speech on Wednesday as "the ice baby".

She has since been confirmed to be the incoming chief of staff under the second Trump administration - Trump's first confirmed appointment for his second term - making her the first woman to take on the role.

Wiles, who Trump claimed "likes to stay in the background”, is considered one of the most feared and respected political operatives in the country.

Less than a year after she started working in politics, she worked on Ronald Reagan’s successful 1980 presidential campaign and later became a scheduler in his White House.

In 2010, she turned Rick Scott, a then-businessman with little political experience, into Florida’s governor in just seven months. Scott is now a US senator.

Wiles met Trump during the 2015 Republican presidential primary and she became the co-chair of his Florida campaign, at the time considered a swing state. Trump went on to narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton there in 2016.

Wiles has been commended by Republicans for her ability to command respect and check the big egos of those in the president-elect's orbit, which could enable her to impose a sense of order that none of his four previous chiefs of staff could.

Elon Musk

Reuters Elon Musk, wearing a black 'Make America Great Again' cap, a black blazer and grey emblazoned t-shirt, points to a sign for Donald Trump's presidential campaign as he speaks at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania Reuters

The world's richest man announced his support for the former president earlier this year, despite saying in 2022 that "it's time for Trump to hang up his hat and sail into the sunset".

The tech billionaire has since emerged as one of the most visible and well-known backers of Trump and donated more than $119m (£91.6m) this election cycle to America PAC - a political action committee he created to support the former president.

Musk, the head of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of the social media platform X, also launched a voter registration drive that included a $1m (£771,000) give-away to a random swing-state voter each day during the closing stretch of the campaign.

Since registering as a Republican ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Musk has been increasingly vocal on issues including illegal immigration and transgender rights.

Both Musk and Trump have concentrated on the idea of him leading a new "Department of Government Efficiency", where he would cut costs, reform regulations and streamline what he calls a "massive, suffocating federal bureaucracy".

The would-be agency's acronym - DOGE - is a playful reference to a "meme-coin" cryptocurrency Musk has previously promoted.

Mike Pompeo

Reuters Mike Pompeo, who has neat grey hair brushed to the side, wears a grey suit, white shirt and red tie as he testifies before the House Select Committee in WashingtonReuters

The former Kansas congressman served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and then secretary of state during Trump's first administration.

A foreign policy hawk and a fierce supporter of Israel, he played a highly visible role in moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He was among the key players in the implementation of the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

He remained a loyal defender of his boss, joking that there would be "a smooth transition to a second Trump administration" amid Trump's false claims of election fraud in late 2020.

He has been tipped as a top contender for the role of defence secretary, alongside Michael Waltz, a Florida lawmaker and military veteran who sits on the armed services committee in the US House of Representatives.

Richard Grenell

Reuters Richard Grenell, who has short brown hair, wears a blue suit jacket and white shirt, as she stands in front of a microphone onstage at a conventionReuters

Richard Grenell served as Trump's ambassador to Germany, special envoy to the Balkans and his acting director of national intelligence.

The Republican was also heavily involved in Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, in the swing state of Nevada.

Trump prizes Grenell's loyalty and has described him as "my envoy".

In September, he sat in on Trump's private meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The former president has often claimed he will end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours" of taking office and Grenell has advocated for setting up an autonomous zone in eastern Ukraine as a means to that end - an idea seen as unacceptable by Kyiv.

He's considered a contender for secretary of state or national security advisor, a position that does not require Senate confirmation.

Karoline Leavitt

Reuters Karoline Leavitt, who has straight blonde shoulder-length hair, and wears a silver cross necklace with a cream coat, beams during a rally in 2022Reuters
Karoline Leavitt was Trump campaign's spokeswoman

The Trump 2024 campaign's national press secretary previously served in his White House press office, as an assistant press secretary.

The 27-year-old Gen-Zer made a bid to become the youngest woman ever elected to the US Congress in 2022, to represent a seat in her home state of New Hampshire, but fell short.

She is tipped to become the White House press secretary - the most public-facing position in the cabinet.

Tom Homan

Getty Images A photo of Tom Homan delivering an address in Salem, Ohio in March 2024Getty Images

Tom Homan served as the acting director of the US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (Ice) during the first Trump administration, where he was a proponent of separating migrant children from their parents as a way to deter illegal crossings.

At the time, he made headlines for saying politicians who support sanctuary city policies should be charged with crimes. He later resigned from his Ice position in 2018, mid-way through the Trump presidency.

He has since emerged as a key figure in developing Trump's mass migrant deportation plan, and has been floated as a potential pick to head the Department of Homeland Security.

Homan spoke on the deportation plan last month in an interview with BBC's US partner CBS News, saying that "it's not going to be - a mass sweep of neighbourhoods."

"They'll be targeted arrests. We’ll know who we’re going to arrest, where we’re most likely to find ‘em based on numerous, you know, investigative processes," he said.

COP29 chief exec filmed promoting fossil fuel deals

Watch: Secret footage shows COP29's chief Elnur Soltanov discussing gas and oil deals

A senior official at COP29 climate change conference in Azerbaijan appears to have used his role to arrange a meeting to discuss potential fossil fuel deals, the BBC can report.

A secret recording shows the chief executive of Azerbaijan's COP29 team, Elnur Soltanov, discussing "investment opportunities" in the state oil and gas company with a man posing as a potential investor.

"We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed," he says.

A former head of the UN body responsible for the climate talks told the BBC that Soltanov's actions were "completely unacceptable" and a "betrayal" of the COP process.

Reuters A sign announcing the COP29 United Nations Climate Change Conference November 11-22 2024, against a backdrop of white multi-storey apartment buildings Reuters
Baku is hosting this year's COP29 United Nations Climate Change Conference

As well as being the chief executive of COP29, Soltanov is also the deputy energy minister of Azerbaijan and is on the board of Socar.

Azerbaijan's COP29 team has not responded to a request for comment.

Oil and gas accounts for about half of Azerbaijan's total economy and more than 90% of its exports, according to US figures.

COP29 will open in Baku on Monday and is the 29th annual UN climate summit, where governments discuss how to limit and prepare for climate change, and raise global ambition to tackle the issue.

However, this is the second year in a row the BBC has revealed alleged wrongdoing by the host government.

The BBC has been shown documents and secret video recordings made by the human rights organisation, Global Witness.

It is understood that one of its representatives approached the COP29 team posing as the head of a fictitious Hong Kong investment firm specialising in energy.

He said this company was interested in sponsoring the COP29 summit but wanted to discuss investment opportunities in Azerbaijan's state energy firm, Socar, in return. An online meeting with Soltanov was arranged.

Getty Images A red and green oil pump at an oil well in the capital city Baku, with apartment blocks, a screen and a park in the background 
Getty Images
Azerbaijan has rich oil and natural gas deposits

During the meeting, Soltanov told the potential sponsor that the aim of the conference was "solving the climate crisis" and "transitioning away from hydrocarbons in a just, orderly and equitable manner".

Anyone, he said, including oil and gas companies, "could come with solutions" because Azerbaijan’s "doors are open".

However, he said he was open to discussions about deals too – including on oil and gas.

Initially, Soltanov suggested the potential sponsor might be interested in investing in some of the "green transitioning projects" Socar was involved in - but then spoke of opportunities related to Azerbaijan's plans to increase gas production, including new pipeline infrastructure.

"There are a lot of joint ventures that could be established," Soltanov says on the recording. "Socar is trading oil and gas all over the world, including in Asia."

Soltanov then described natural gas as a "transitional fuel", adding: "We will have a certain amount of oil and natural gas being produced, perhaps forever."

The UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, acknowledges there will be a role for some oil and gas up to 2050 and beyond. However, it has been very clear that "developing… new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5C".

It also goes against the agreement the world made at the last global climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels.

Soltanov appeared eager to help get discussions going, telling the potential sponsor: "I would be happy to create a contact between your team and their team [Socar] so that they can start discussions."

A couple of weeks later the fake Hong Kong investment company received an email - Socar wanted to follow up on the lead.

Attempting to do business deals as part of the COP process appears to be a serious breach of the standards of conduct expected of a COP official.

These events are supposed to be about reducing the world's use of fossil fuels – the main driver of climate change – not selling more.

The standards are set by the UN body responsible for the climate negotiations, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The UN said it could not comment directly on our findings but remarked that "the same rigorous standards" are applied to whoever hosts the conference, and that those standards reflect "the importance of impartiality on the part of all presiding officers".

Its code of conduct for COP officials states they are "expected to act without bias, prejudice, favouritism, caprice, self-interest, preference or deference, strictly based on sound, independent and fair judgement.

"They are also expected to ensure that personal views and convictions do not compromise or appear to compromise their role and functions as a UNFCCC officer."

Getty Images Dressed in a smart blue dress and flanked by the flags of the United Nations and France, Christiana Figueres makes a speech during the opening of COP21 in Paris in 2015Getty Images
Christiana Figueres, who presided over the historic Paris agreement, says doing deals on fossil fuels is a “betrayal” of the COP process

Christiana Figueres, who oversaw the signing of the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C, told the BBC that she was shocked anyone in the COP process would use their position to strike oil and gas deals.

She said such behaviour was "contrary and egregious" to the the purpose of COP and "a treason" to the process.

The BBC has also seen emails between the COP29 team and the fake investors.

In one chain, the team discusses a $600,000 (£462,000) sponsorship deal with a fake company in return for the Socar introduction and involvement in an event about "sustainable oil and gas investing" during COP29.

Officials offered five passes with full access to the summit and drafted a contract which initially required the firm to make some commitments to sustainability. Then it pushed back, one requirement was dropped and "corrections" were considered to another.

The BBC asked Azerbaijan's COP29 team and Socar for comment. Neither responded to the requests.

The findings come a year after the BBC obtained leaked documents that revealed plans by the UAE to use its role as host of COP28 to strike oil and gas deals.

COP28 was the first time agreement was reached on the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

直接安排10万亿元!地方政府化债压力将大大减轻

新华社

财政部部长蓝佛安在11月8日举行的十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议新闻发布会上介绍,从2024年开始,我国将连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排8000亿元,专门用于化债,累计可置换隐性债务4万亿元。再加上这次全国人大常委会批准的6万亿元债务限额,直接增加地方化债资源10万亿元。

同时也明确,2029年及以后到期的棚户区改造隐性债务2万亿元,仍按原合同偿还。

蓝佛安表示,政策协同发力后,2028年之前,地方需要消化的隐性债务总额从14.3万亿元大幅下降至2.3万亿元,化债压力大大减轻。

Trump Flipped Hispanic South Texas

Donald J. Trump’s biggest gains anywhere were along the Texas border, a Democratic stronghold where most voters are Hispanic. He won 12 of the region’s 14 counties, up from five in 2016.

© Gabriel V. Cárdenas for The New York Times

The support for President-elect Donald J. Trump across South Texas, a working-class region, provided the starkest example of what has been a broad national move toward the Republican candidate among Hispanic and working-class voters.
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