《亚太报道》2024年11月08日音频
- 缅甸内战何时了,中国推动政治变革
- 中国打造湄公河五国共同体,深化联通抗拒美国
- 变性舞蹈演员金星演出遭到当局封杀
- 中国的智能炸锅被爆有窃听功能
The police watchdog will review how Metropolitan Police officers handled allegations of sexual misconduct against former Harrods owner Mohamed Al Fayed.
The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) will review two cases the Met Police investigated in 2008 and 2013 after the force referred itself.
Hundreds of women have alleged the billionaire, who died last year aged 94, raped or sexually assaulted them.
Police are looking into some claims and Harrods is also settling hundreds of claims.
In a documentary which aired in September, the BBC revealed Al Fayed was accused by 21 women of sexual offences while he was alive.
Since the documentary aired, more than 400 alleged victims have come forward with allegations of assault, harassment and rape over a period of more than 30 years when they were his employees.
However, questions have been raised around the Met's investigations.
Of the 21 women who made allegations before September this year, the Met did not pass full files of evidence to prosecutors on 19 of the women who approached them.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
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The UK could face a £22bn hit to its exports if Donald Trump imposes a blanket 20% tariff on all imports into the US, according to a new analysis.
UK exports to the world could fall more than 2.6% due to lower trade with the US and knock-on effects globally, economists at the University of Sussex's Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) said.
This fall could happen if the President-elect went through with his repeated campaign promise to levy a 20% tax on all imports, and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
The decline in trade would be the equivalent of an annual hit to UK economic output of 0.8%.
Although Trump's aggressive pledges could be a negotiating tactic, the "possibility of these tariffs being imposed is certainly there", researcher Nicolo Tamberi said in a blog post.
The main UK sectors likely to be hit would be fishing, petroleum, and mining, which could see exports fall by around a fifth.
The pharmaceutical and electrical sectors would also be hit.
Even businesses that are not exporters themselves could be affected.
For example, firms supplying transportation services, which rely on strong trade flows, would take a hit.
Insurance and finance services also support the underlying goods trade.
However, some sectors could benefit from reduced China exports to the US.
Textiles and clothing could see gains due to reduced competition, if Chinese exports were hit by much higher Trump tariffs.
Just how sharp the increase in border taxes under Donald Trump might be remains unclear. Some diplomats have pointed to more pragmatic suggestions about lighter tariffs for US allies.
But Trump's top adviser on trade, former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, is a strong supporter of the tactic.
The Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told the BBC's Newscast podcast: “We will seek to ensure and to get across to the United States – and I believe that they would understand this – that hurting your closest allies cannot be in your medium or long-term interests, whatever the pursuit of public policy in relation to some of the problems posed by China."
But the British ambassador in the US under Trump's previous administration, Lord Darroch, has warned the UK should not underestimate the risks.
"I’m a pessimist," he told BBC Newsnight on Thursday. "Trump did tariffs in his first term on steel and aluminium. He wants to go much bigger this time. He believes in it - it’s not a bluff. I think he will do it."
Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have both said they will continue to make the argument for free trade.
The UK might be in a position to have to choose whether to try to cut a side deal with the Trump White House to avoid tariffs.
Alternatively the UK could join with other Western and European allies to send a clear message to Trump and the US Congress that American exporters would also be badly hit by such policies.
The CITP numbers only assume that the US sets tariffs on the world, and do not assume a likely trade retaliation from Europe or Asia.
The IMF recently warned that a large scale trade war would drive up inflation and lead to the world economy shrinking 7%, effectively the size of the French and German economies combined.
World leaders are set to arrive at a big annual UN climate meeting hoping to rein in rising global temperatures, which are making deadly events like the recent floods in Spain far worse.
A key aim at this year's meeting in Azerbaijan is agreeing on how to get more cash to poorer countries to help them curb their planet-warming gases and to help them cope with the growing impacts of climate change.
But the US election victory of Donald Trump - a known climate sceptic - as well as wars and cost of living crises are proving a distraction, and some important leaders are not attending.
Hosts Azerbaijan are also under intense scrutiny over their human rights record, as well as accusations they are using the meeting to line up fossil fuel deals.
COP29 is the world's most important meeting on climate change. It is led by the UN, and this year's event, the 29th such gathering, will run from 11-22 November. It is being held in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, a central Asian country located between Russia and Iran.
COP stands for “Conference of the Parties”, and in this case, the parties are the countries that have ratified a treaty called the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
That document was signed back in 1992, by almost 200 countries. The COP is the decision-making body of that agreement and representatives of these countries meet every year to negotiate the best approaches to tackling the root causes of climate change.
Presidents and prime ministers normally attend these conferences at the start to provide impetus. But this year the leaders of some of the biggest economies and biggest carbon emitters are notably absent. US President Joe Biden, China's leader Xi Jinping and France's President Emmanuel Macron will be absent, as will European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s Olaf Schulz and India’s Narendra Modi.
They are staying away for a range of reasons, but it won't help the conference get off to a strong start. Leaders who do attend will also have lots of other issues on their minds, including two expensive and difficult wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine, and global financial problems.
"No world leader is arriving with climate change at the number one spot in their inbox," Prof Thomas Hale at Oxford university explains.
There’s also an underlying feeling that Azerbaijan doesn’t have the diplomatic or financial clout to secure a significant agreement in Baku.
Many leaders are taking the view that progress is more likely at next year’s COP30 in Brazil.
A key question this year is money.
Under the Paris agreement signed in 2015, world leaders pledged to try to prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C. For that to happen countries need to ramp up their efforts to cut warming gases.
As part of the agreement, countries committed to develop a new cash target for developing nations by 2025. This money would be used to help emerging economies cut their carbon and adapt to the worst impacts of rising temperatures.
Getting agreement on a new finance target is seen as a critical step in building trust between rich and poor nations as, so far, the track record hasn’t been great.
African countries and small island states want to see climate finance in total reach over a $1tn a year by 2030.
Up to now countries like China and the Gulf States have been classified as developing economies and been exempt from contributing.
According to the EU and other wealthy countries, that must change if the overall amount of cash is to be increased.
Governments’ plans for tackling climate change in their own countries could also be a tricky issue. They must update their action plans every five years (the next deadline is February.)
Some countries will release their strategies at this COP, but if they’re weak and look unlikely to stop global warming rising beyond 1.5C, then it could cause problems with countries on the front lines of climate change.
And are the fossil fuel agreements passed at the last climate talks still standing? There were signs in the G20 talks this year that some countries wanted to roll back on promises to move away from burning oil, coal and gas.
You don’t need to look far to see trouble brewing. Major UN talks on protecting nature collapsed two weeks ago in Colombia when nations couldn’t agree key goals.
Azerbaijan has big plans to expand gas production, by up to a third, over the next decade. Some observers worry that a country with that goal is in charge of a conference that aims to transition away from fossil fuels.
These fuels are one of the main causes of climate change because they release planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide when burned for energy.
There are also concerns, reported by the BBC, that Azerbaijani officials are using the climate conference to boost investment in the country’s national oil and gas company.
There are also deep reservations about holding this key event in a country with a poor human rights record, where political opposition isn’t tolerated.
The US president-elect is a known climate sceptic who has called efforts to boost green energy a "scam" and his victory has been seen by climate experts as a major setback.
He won’t actually be at COP29, and President Biden’s team will push for progress, but they know that anything they agree to will not bind the new administration.
With Trump's election the US will likely withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and from providing finance.
However it’s also possible that Trump’s re-election might drive a new sense of unity, even building a coalition who might agree a major step on money for poorer countries.
Experts argue that the climate crisis, and our collective response to it, will outlast a second Trump term.
The warning alarms from the climate could not be stronger this year.
It is now "virtually certain" that 2024 - a year punctuated by intense heatwaves and deadly storms - will be the world's warmest on record, according to projections by the European climate service.
And we’ve seen the impacts of warmer oceans with very powerful hurricanes Helene and Milton slamming into the US in the summer. The devastating flooding that killed at least 200 people in Spain in October was also fuelled by higher sea temperatures in the Mediterranean.
“Climate change is a cumulative problem. That means that with every year of delay, there is additional warming that we commit our planet to. Now is the time that we need to take action,” explains Prof Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London.
In the short-term, agreements at COP can change how nations build their economies, like pushing the development of green power. That can affect where we get our energy from and how much we pay for it in our bills.
It can also commit countries to paying large sums of money into funds for poorer countries. In the UK this currently comes from aid budgets paid for by tax-payers, although private financial institutions are expected to contribute significantly.
In the long-term, the talks aim to build a safer, cleaner world for everyone and prevent the worst of climate change.
Authorities across the US are investigating after reports of text messages sent to black Americans with references to “slave catchers”, plantations and picking cotton.
In a statement the FBI said it is “aware of the offensive and racist text messages sent to individuals around the country and is in contact with the Justice Department and other federal authorities on the matter.”
The source of the messages and the total number sent are unclear, however, there are reports that they were received in at least 15 states and Washington DC.
Some of the messages mentioned the Trump campaign – which strongly denied any connection.
Steven Cheung, a campaign spokesman, said: “The campaign has absolutely nothing to do with these text messages.”
According to examples posted online and cited in news reports, the wording of the messages varied but generally instructed recipients to report to a “plantation” or wait to be picked up in a van, and referred to “slave” labour.
The messages appear to have started on Wednesday, the day after election day. Among the recipients were college students and children.
In a statement Derrick Johnson, head of the civil rights group NAACP, said: “These actions are not normal.”
“These messages represent an alarming increase in vile and abhorrent rhetoric from racist groups across the country, who now feel emboldened to spread hate and stoke the flames of fear that many of us are feeling after Tuesday's election results,” Johnson said.
Jessica Rosenworcel, chairwoman of the Federal Communications Commission, which is also investigating the messages, said: "These messages are unacceptable. We take this type of targeting very seriously.”
The messages were reportedly received across southern states, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, California, Washington DC and others, US media say.
One recipient, Hailey Welch, told a University of Alabama student newspaper that several students on the campus had also received the messages.
“At first I thought it was a joke, but everyone else was getting them. People were texting, posting on their stories, saying they got them,” Ms Welch told The Crimson White. “I was just stressed out, and I was scared because I didn’t know what was happening.”
In several states, top law enforcement officials said they were aware of the messages and encouraged residents to report them to the authorities if they received them.
The office of Nevada’s attorney general said it was working to “probe into the source of what appear to be robotext messages”.
The office of Louisiana's attorney general said it had discovered that some of the messages could be traced back to a VPN in Poland, but that "no original source" had been found so far.
Authorities across the US are investigating after reports of text messages sent to black Americans with references to “slave catchers”, plantations and picking cotton.
In a statement the FBI said it is “aware of the offensive and racist text messages sent to individuals around the country and is in contact with the Justice Department and other federal authorities on the matter.”
The source of the messages and the total number sent are unclear, however, there are reports that they were received in at least 15 states and Washington DC.
Some of the messages mentioned the Trump campaign – which strongly denied any connection.
Steven Cheung, a campaign spokesman, said: “The campaign has absolutely nothing to do with these text messages.”
According to examples posted online and cited in news reports, the wording of the messages varied but generally instructed recipients to report to a “plantation” or wait to be picked up in a van, and referred to “slave” labour.
The messages appear to have started on Wednesday, the day after election day. Among the recipients were college students and children.
In a statement Derrick Johnson, head of the civil rights group NAACP, said: “These actions are not normal.”
“These messages represent an alarming increase in vile and abhorrent rhetoric from racist groups across the country, who now feel emboldened to spread hate and stoke the flames of fear that many of us are feeling after Tuesday's election results,” Johnson said.
Jessica Rosenworcel, chairwoman of the Federal Communications Commission, which is also investigating the messages, said: "These messages are unacceptable. We take this type of targeting very seriously.”
The messages were reportedly received across southern states, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, California, Washington DC and others, US media say.
One recipient, Hailey Welch, told a University of Alabama student newspaper that several students on the campus had also received the messages.
“At first I thought it was a joke, but everyone else was getting them. People were texting, posting on their stories, saying they got them,” Ms Welch told The Crimson White. “I was just stressed out, and I was scared because I didn’t know what was happening.”
In several states, top law enforcement officials said they were aware of the messages and encouraged residents to report them to the authorities if they received them.
The office of Nevada’s attorney general said it was working to “probe into the source of what appear to be robotext messages”.
The office of Louisiana's attorney general said it had discovered that some of the messages could be traced back to a VPN in Poland, but that "no original source" had been found so far.
特朗普胜选成为美国新任总统后,外界关注他在气候变化问题的立场是否影响美国与太平洋岛国的关系,特别是在合作应对中国在该地区的影响力方面。
据Benar News报道,相比拜登政府积极应对气候变化,特朗普采取的是截然不同的做法。他承诺增加石油产量,并威胁可能第二次退出巴黎气候协定。
澳大利亚悉尼大学美国研究中心客座教授赖利(Benjamin Reilly)指出,这可能使气候变化问题成为太平洋岛国与特朗普政府之间潜在的“导火索”。他认为,将太平洋岛屿视为地缘政治的棋盘是危险的做法,因为这将无法赢得民心,也难以建立持久的伙伴关系。
不过,美国战略与国际研究中心高级研究员、拜登政府前国家安全委员会太平洋与东南亚事务主管帕伊克(Kathryn Paik)对Benar News表示,尽管气候变化因素可能使两国关系变得复杂,但不太可能“彻底破坏”双边关系。
报道称,今年美国与密克罗尼西亚联邦、帕劳和马绍尔群岛续签《自由联系协定》,赋予美国军方进入这些国家海域的独有权利,美国则以提供资金援助,并允许这些岛国的公民在美国居住和工作作为回报。目前,尚未有现任美国总统正式访问过太平洋岛国。
帕伊克建议,美国应借鉴过去与太平洋岛国重建友好关系的经验,在该地区投入更多人力资源。她说,目前已开设了一些大使馆,但派驻到当地的外交官数量仍然很少,应该要更多。此外,她还建议在吉里巴斯等其他岛屿开设大使馆,并派驻一位常驻太平洋岛屿论坛的大使。
责编:安克 网编:伍檫愙
北京批准了一项 1.4 万亿美元的一揽子计划,以帮助地方政府置换不断增加的隐性债务。但此次没有提出刺激消费的计划,市场做出悲观的反应。外界如何解读这项计划的原因及效果?
在11月8日下午闭幕的十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议上,表决通过了《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案》,即上周媒体盛传的“十万亿人民币地方债务置换方案”。
自9月底以来,中国投资者和市场一直在期待一次大规模的经济刺激计划,这使得中国沪深300指数上涨了近20%。特朗普本周当选美国总统之后更提升了市场对此次计划的预判。但周五公布的计划不及市场预期,A50在香港的盘后交易中下跌,离岸人民币一度贬值0.6%,随后跌幅收窄。
未采取经济刺激手段
市场悲观的原因之一,是此次议案要点仍是以化债为主要目标,缺少此前认为可能会出现的房地产提振措施及刺激消费的措施。
综合海内外报道,此次计划之一直接增加地方化债资源6万亿人民币的债务限额,用以置换地方政府存量隐性债务,且“一次报批,三年实施”,按此安排,2024年末,中国地方政府专项债务限额将由29.52万亿元增加到35.52万亿元。
另外,从2024年开始连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排8000亿元人民币,专门用于化债,累计可置换隐性债务4万亿元。两项合计,将直接增加地方化债资源10万亿元人民币,约1.4万亿美元。
财政部长蓝佛安在新闻发布会上强调,后续将不新增隐性债务作为“铁的纪律”,保持“零容忍”。中国用“隐性债务”来描述地方政府融资平台(LGFV)的贷款、债券和影子信贷。
地方债危机缓而未解
据蓝佛安透露,截至 2023 年底,中国地方政府的隐性债务约为 14.3 万亿元人民币,北京计划到 2028 年将其削减至 2.3 万亿元人民币。据国际货币基金组织估计, 2023 年底时,中国地方融资平台的债务总额达到 60 万亿元人民币,占中国GDP 的 47.6%。
经济学家普遍认为,10万亿债权计划不足以缓解目前中国地方政府的困局。
瑞银前首席经济学家、牛津大学中国中心研究员乔治·马格纳斯邮件回复自由亚洲的采访请求分析说:“中国政府的隐性债务水平很高,严重程度可见于许多地方和省级政府的现金紧张和偿债困难,削减服务和拖欠还款已成为常态。 新计划是一种金融工程,旨在减轻地方政府的负担,争取时间。它不会减少债务,也不会解决地方政府部门举债能力有限的问题。 ”
但他认为中国目前需要的是新的经济模式,而不是彻底的结构性改革。他说:“财政和货币政策已经放松。可以采取更多措施稳定房地产,并允许开发商和过度扩张的银行清盘。但最大的问题是,政府的方针狭隘,只关注产业政策、出口和自力更生,而它应该做的是改变中国的经济模式,使其更加依赖消费、服务、生产力、私营企业以及改革后的税收和地方政府体系。但从政治角度来看,政府不想或不喜欢这些措施。”
不过,中国税务总局前副局长许善达在接受中国《财经》杂志创始人采访时解释说:“10万亿看起来没有给地方政府增加新的资金来源,但中央政府发债的利息低,地方政府之前的债务利息高,债务置换可以减轻地方政府的财政压力,这条安排可以让地方政府马上获得红利。”
他同时也认为,仅化债是不够的,“不要光给开发商减税,同时要给买房人提供资源,让购买者有资源买了,那政府不给开发商借钱,他也能自己借钱把保交楼的事情完成了。”
低迷经济未得到救助
经济时评人王剑则分析,大动干戈只出台了一个债务置换方案,并不是不想刺激经济,而是没有刺激经济的工具了。因此,目前这个方案只是为了解决地方政府“转不动”的问题。“转不动的原因是各种债逼到门上,没钱什么都动不了,现在是要保工资、保运转支出、保基本民生,一年需要10万亿,这就是隐性债置换的规模。现在是解决活下来的问题,离刺激经济还很远呢。”
旅美经济学者黄大卫持不同意见。他对自由亚洲电台分析:“我们现在觉得中国经济不好,都是以西方的视角、老百姓的视角来评价,但北京评判的标准其实不是这样的,他们认为中国是中国特色的社会主义,他们主要看的是国企,是国有经济,所以他们觉得中国经济现在还好得不得了,国有企业今年增长还很厉害,所以他们觉得不需要做什么。”
迎接特朗普贸易战 中国留有后手?
但也有人认为,随着特朗普的关税计划变得更加清晰,北京将在未来几个月逐步加大对中国经济的支持力度。
财政部长蓝佛安也在周五的会议上表示,支持房地产市场健康发展的相关税收政策,已经报批,即将推出。
马格纳斯认为,如果新措施能够支持政府从开发商手中购买土地和未售出的房产,“肯定有助于巩固其他类似举措,并减少房地产过剩,从而抑制销售并迫使价格下跌。但我们必须看看当局是否愿意向该计划投入大量资金,如果愿意,该计划是否会比迄今为止更有效。”
许多人因此将目光转向将于2024年12月召开的政治局会议和中央经济工作会议上,届时,官员们可能会对特朗普的关税立场有更清晰的认识,并有更多时间制定财政战略来保护经济。
特朗普多次暗示,他可能对所有中国进口产品征收 60% 的关税,以缩小华盛顿与其主要地缘政治竞争对手的贸易逆差——这将大幅提高目前平均约 12.5% 的关税。
王剑并不认为特朗普会在一上台就开启与中国的贸易战。“现在美国经济PEC刚刚到2.5,涨一点就是通货膨胀,往下降就是软着陆,打贸易战就是增加成本,就是通货膨胀,所以打贸易战未必有紧迫性,对于特朗普来说,未必是个优先事项。”
黄大卫持不同意见。他说,经过上一轮执政,特朗普对中国已经非常了解。上一次特朗普是在执政两年后才开始对中国加征关税,但此次可能会很快,“也许明年二月就会开始”。他还认为,特朗普不需要直接加征关税,他只要宣布一个时间点,中国就会开展应对行动。
中国经济面临巨大风险和不确定性
如果特朗普加征关税得以实施,经济学家普遍认为将会对中国造成沉重打击。
乔治·马格纳斯分析说:“上次特朗普这样做时,中国以针锋相对的关税报复作为回应,但这一次,中国缺乏对美国贸易的反击。中国正处于困难时期。如果这些提议得以实施,将对中国造成沉重打击,并促使更多企业迁出大陆。”
布鲁金斯学会高级研究员、高盛前首席外汇策略师罗宾·布鲁克斯在X上预测,如果特朗普对中国征收 60% 的关税,“我们将看到美元出现前所未有的升值。中国只有一个选择:让人民币大幅贬值。”
王剑认为,大批中国企业迁出中国大陆将给中国经济带来更严重的负面效果:“中国失业肯定会更严重啊,地方税收下滑啊,就更没钱了”
但经济学家也都认为,贸易战只是手段不是目的,特朗普提升关税的目的仍然是平衡贸易,会使中国重新回到谈判桌。
黄大卫分析,在经过上一轮与特朗普政策的接触后,相信中国政府已经很了解特朗普的行事风格,谈判是一定会谈的,而且他认为“大概率会谈得来,小概率会谈不拢”,因为中国政府清楚,离开了美国强大的市场,中国商品卖到世界任何其他地方都赚不了钱。
北京提出这项1.4万亿美元计划,外界认为既不治标也未治本,后续的前景仍有多种可能,目前仍无法确定。乔治·马格纳斯甚至说:“也许埃隆·马斯克可以找到一种方法,来约束特朗普和习近平:但这是一项艰巨的任务。”
责编:安克. 网编:伍檫愙
Donald Trump pledged in one of his final campaign speeches to work with Democratic mayors and governors if reelected. But just hours after the former president was projected to win back the White House, some blue-state leaders were actively plotting against him.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, one of Trump’s fiercest critics, on Thursday called a special legislative session to funnel more resources toward the state’s legal defenses to preemptively combat Republican policies around immigration, the environment, LGBTQ+ rights and reproductive care.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James — one of Trump’s most aggressive first-term adversaries — pledged to beef up coordination between their offices to “protect New Yorkers’ fundamental freedoms from any potential threats.”
And attorneys general across blue states are prepared to take Trump to court — just as their predecessors did hundreds of times during his first administration.
If Trump’s reelection represented a realignment in American politics, blue-state leaders are choosing to confront it with a return to form, resuming the counterweight roles they played during his first administration as their party reckons with a nationwide repudiation.
“We've been talking for months with attorneys general throughout the nation, preparing, planning, strategizing for the possibility of this day,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said at a press conference in San Francisco on Thursday.
Trump’s two-year campaign to retake the White House — and polls that for months showed he could succeed — gave Democrats the lead time they lacked in 2016 to shore up their defenses against conservative policies. And they are using as a guide his campaign-trail calls for mass deportations and regulatory rollbacks, as well as Project 2025, the conservative blueprint for a Republican administration that Trump has distanced himself from but that dozens of his former administration officials had a hand in crafting.
Governors and lawmakers in several blue states have already passed laws bolstering reproductive rights since the fall of Roe and stockpiled the abortion pill mifepristone in response to further legal threats to reproductive care. While Trump has vowed to veto a national abortion ban, that’s hardly alleviated Democrats’ fears. And as he barreled toward a second term, they raced to address other areas of concern, pushing ballot measures to protect same-sex marriage, labor rights and other liberal causes.
Even as he briefly pledged in the closing days of his campaign to work across the aisle, Trump has also vowed to punish his political opponents — and many blue-state leaders are at the top of his list of adversaries. On Friday, the president-elect tore into Newsom for calling a special legislative session.
“Governor Gavin Newscum is trying to KILL our Nation’s beautiful California,” Trump said Friday in a post on Truth Social, using his derisive nickname for the governor. “He is using the term ‘Trump-Proof’ as a way of stopping all of the GREAT things that can be done to ‘Make California Great Again.’”
And so Democratic governors and attorneys general who have spent months strategizing on how to protect their states’ progressive policies from a possible second Trump term are kicking those efforts into higher gear.
Some governors are discussing how to ensure that federal funding for state projects makes it to their coffers before Trump takes power, potentially with total Republican control of Congress, said one person who works in a Democratic governor’s office, granted anonymity to disclose private conversations. The discussions convey the concerns among some Democrats that Republicans could pause disbursements from, or even repeal, President Joe Biden’s signature programs, such as the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction acts.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker also said Thursday that he has spoken with other Democratic governors since the election about how to best Trump-proof their states.
“There are many people whose lives and livelihoods are at risk, and there are many people who cried at the [election] result because they know what impact it may have on their families,” Pritzker said at a press conference Thursday.
He also delivered a warning: "You come for my people, you come through me.”
In California, where Democratic leaders became some of the de facto heads of the Trump resistance after his 2016 election, officials spent months working to shore up the state’s climate policies and disaster preparedness in anticipation of an antagonistic federal government even before Newsom called the special legislative session.
“The freedoms we hold dear in California are under attack,” Newsom declared in a statement. “And we won’t sit idle.”
In New York, Hochul and James created the Empire State Freedom Initiative, a program that is meant to address “policy and regulatory threats” from the incoming Trump administration, including against reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights, as well as gun safety and environmental justice. The New York governor also signaled she will propose legislation as well as take executive action in response to Trump’s victory, but did not provide specifics.
“New York will remain a bastion for freedom and rule of law,” Hochul said. “I'll do everything in my power to ensure that New York remains a bastion from efforts where those rights are being denied in other states.”
James could have an outsize impact on how Trump’s policies trickle down to New York. The Democrat, who was first elected in 2018, sued Trump’s real estate business for fraud. She won a $450 million judgment, which is being appealed.
Meanwhile, state prosecutors who often served as the first line of defense against Trump’s most controversial executive orders in his last term — banding together to try to block his travel restrictions from some Muslim-majority countries, challenge his plans to roll back vehicle emissions standards, and more — have long been preparing to again serve as a legal bulwark.
In California, state lawyers have meticulously prepared for Trump’s return — down to crafting draft briefings, weighing specific legal arguments and debating favorable litigation venues, Bonta, the attorney general, told POLITICO.
“If he comes into office and he follows the law and he doesn't violate the constitution and he doesn't violate other important laws, like the Administrative Procedure Act he violated all the time last time, then there's nothing for us to do,” Bonta said. “But if he violates the law, as he has said he would, as Project 2025 says he will, then we are ready. … We have gone down to the detail of: What court do we file in?”
In New Jersey, state Attorney General Matt Platkin cited mass deportations, an “aggressive reading of the Comstock Act” to potentially impose an abortion ban and "gutting clean water protection" as potential sources of litigation.
“If you look at the things that have been said by the president and his associates during the campaign, … if you read Project 2025, there are proposals that are clearly unlawful and that would undermine the rights of our residents,” Platkin said in an interview.
And in Massachusetts, first-term Attorney General Andrea Campbell’s office has been preparing to act against threats to reproductive, LGBTQ+ and immigrants' rights and student loan-forgiveness programs, among other areas.
In response to a request for comment, Trump’s team said in a statement: “The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.”
Democrats’ rush to reform their resistance to Trump is partly self-serving. Governors and state prosecutors who took on Trump during his first term burnished their national profiles in the process.
In some cases they were able to parlay their opposition into higher office: Massachusetts’ Maura Healey leveraged her lawsuits against Trump as attorney general to help win the governorship in 2022; California’s Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general, is now the Biden administration’s Health and Human Services secretary and is eyeing a run for governor. And for Democrats who’ve been chafing for a chance to get off the party’s deep bench, a second Trump term presents a fresh opportunity for a potentially star-making turn ahead of an open 2028 presidential primary.
That jockeying has in some ways already begun. Several blue-state leaders held press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday to reassure anxious constituents that doubled as ways to establish themselves as leaders in the anti-Trump fight. On Wednesday, Healey was on MSNBC vowing that state police would not be involved in carrying out the mass deportations Trump has promised, seizing a national platform in a way she rarely has since challenging Trump in the courtroom as attorney general.
But there was some acknowledgment among top city and state Democrats that they would have to find ways to work with Trump, too — mainly on infrastructure projects which are often reliant on massive amounts of federal funding.
“If it's contrary to our values, we will fight to the death,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said during a Wednesday press conference about the election results. “If there’s an opportunity for common ground, we will seize that as fast as anybody.”
New York City Mayor Eric Adams similarly pledged to find ways to partner with the incoming administration, naming infrastructure as a target area for future collaboration.
“I communicated with the president yesterday to state that there are many issues here in the city that we want to work together with the administration to address,” Adams said during a news conference Thursday. “The city must move forward.”
Holly Otterbein, Melanie Mason, Nick Reisman, Daniel Han, Maya Kaufman, Shia Kapos and Kelly Garrity contributed to this report.
第34届中国新闻奖的评选结果,于11月7日公布。这一奖项,是由中共中宣部批准常设的中国全国优秀新闻作品最高奖,自1991年以来在中国全国新闻工作者协会的主办下每年一评。值得注意的是,本届中国新闻奖的四个特别奖中,有三个与习近平直接相关。
网友评论:“新闻已死”、“能要点脸吗”
获得本届中国新闻奖特别奖首位的新闻报道,是由新华社发布的《习近平全票当选中国国家主席、中央军委主席》。消息传出后,大量网友对此进行了嘲讽。有170万关注者的X账号“李老师不是你老师”在11月7日当天发布推文,直言“新闻已死”。X网友则纷纷进行讽刺性的评论,表示“看标题就觉得恶臭了”,“能要点脸吗”,“党创造天地”等等。
时事评论员蓝述表示,中共在习近平上任之后,它的党的利益就是“定于一尊”:“所以说,所有的新闻报道,只要是中宣部管的着的,它去评奖的时候,一定服从这个‘定于一尊’的指标。”
本届中国新闻奖特别奖的其它三个获奖报道,分别是《人民日报》的《增强实现中华民族伟大复兴的精神力量——深入学习领会习近平总书记在文化传承发展座谈会上重要讲话精神》、中国中央广播电视总台的《选举新一届国家领导人》和解放军新闻传播中心的《东部战区组织环台岛战备警巡和“联合利剑”演习》。此次评选还评出了一等奖75件、二等奖109件和三等奖185件,其中一等奖首位是中国中央广播电视总台的《习近平同美国总统举行中美元首会晤》。上述这些报道,大都与习近平有关。
蓝述与一些有在中国新闻界从业经历的人士相识。他告诉记者,根据他了解的情况,在习近平“定于一尊”的情况下:“习近平很可能会在一段时间里面稍微低调一点,团结党内各个不同派系的力量。但是从宣传部门上来讲不会改变,因为宣传和组织这两个部门,习近平牢牢控制着。”
近年来的多届中国新闻奖特别奖中都出现着以习近平为主题的报道。例如,去年的第33届中国新闻奖特别奖中,有新华社的报道《为中国人民谋幸福 为中华民族谋复兴——党的十八大以来以习近平同志为核心的党中央治国理政纪实》;前年的第32届中国新闻奖特别奖中,则有新华社的《砥柱人间是此峰——以习近平同志为核心的党中央引领亿万人民走向民族复兴纪实》;2019年的第29届中国新闻奖特别奖中,则有在中国央视播出过的新闻《习近平同金正恩举行会谈》。
“与习近平有关的就能评奖”
旅美作家吴祚来曾在2004—2009年间,担任过中国《文艺与理论》杂志社社长,也曾在那时给报纸写过专栏和社论。他表示,那时的中共宣传系统只对党媒、党刊有头条宣传胡锦涛的要求,对一般刊物和多数报纸则没有这种要求。但是在习近平上台之后,包括官媒和多数媒体的头条,基本都是宣传习近平的:“在所有人的视觉上面,占一个非常显赫的、唯一的位置,这是习近平当政以后出现的现象。”
吴祚来还在2005—2006年间,做过中国社科类、艺术类国家重要课题设置的工作。他表示,目前中国学术界的国家重大课题,已与他从事相关工作时很不同:“你看看现在的国家重大课题,头几条全都是跟习近平或者马克思主义有关的,真正学术的东西被挤压到很边缘的位置。现在评新闻奖也是这样,与习近平有关的就能评奖。”
责编:梒青 网编:伍檫愙
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰千日将至,英国政府周四(7日)公布新一轮针对俄罗斯的制裁,涵盖向俄罗斯提供支援的个人和实体,包括10家中港公司。中国驻英大使馆表示坚决反对,促英方撤销对中国企业的制裁。
英国政府最新公布的制裁名单,包括56个实体和个人,是自去年5月以来针对俄罗斯的最大规模制裁行动。制裁对象包括28家向俄罗斯提供机械设备、微电子、无人机零件等货物的供应商,当中有10家是中港公司,包括道通智能航空技术、西诺控股、红兔矢量实业(深圳)、海能机械(香港)、ACE ERA、新全电子(香港)、金华市海润动力科技、成都旌信科技、麦克维尔工业贸易,以及东莞圣寅数控设备。
而制裁名单上的其他公司,分别设于土耳其和中亚地区,同样被指支援俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。
中方向英方严正交涉
中国驻英国大使馆周五(8日)以“答记者问”形式,回应英国制裁,批评英方违反国际法、损害中国企业正当权益,对此坚决反对,已向英方严正交涉:“我愿重申,在乌克兰问题上,中方始终秉持客观公正立场,积极劝和促谈,推动政治解决。中方一贯依法依规对两用物项出口进行管制。中方从不拱火浇油或趁机渔利,也不接受任何甩锅推责。”
中方敦促英方“纠正错误 ”,撤销对中国企业的制裁,又声言中方将采取必要措施维护自身合法权益。
俄乌问题为英中关系核心
中国企业对俄罗斯的支援,一直是影响英中关系的核心议题之一。英国外相拉米(David Lammy)7月底首次和中国外长王毅在老挝会面时,就促请中国政府阻止其企业支援俄罗斯,形容这对国际安全与繁荣构成重大威胁。而拉米上月中访华时,再向王毅直指中国向俄罗斯供应设备,或让俄国在战争中得益,损害中欧关系,促请王毅尽一切办法调查,阻止中国企业向俄军供货。
拉米在这次制裁的声明中表示,普京以为攻打乌克兰只需几天,然而这场战争已过了近 1000 天。他声言普京最后会失败,而英方将继续向克里姆林宫施压,支持乌克兰人民争取自由的斗争:“今天的措施将继续反击克里姆林宫的入侵性外交政策,破坏俄罗斯在非洲煽动不稳的企图,并扰乱普京战争机器的重要设备供应,粉碎俄罗斯辛苦建立的非法国际网络。”
英国成首个制裁“非洲军团”G7国家
制裁名单还包括3个雇佣兵集团,包括俄罗斯扶值的“非洲军团”(Africa Corps),指其威胁非洲的稳定和安全,包括在利比亚、马里和中非共和国等地犯下严重的人权侵害罪行。这使英国成为七大工业国组织(G7)中,首个直接制裁“非洲军团”的国家。
责编:梒青 网编:伍檫愙
加拿大众议院周三无异议通过挺台议案。该案指出,众议院将继续支持台湾有意义参与国际组织,联合国第2758号决议并未确立中华人民共和国对台主权。有学者分析,这代表加拿大朝野对 “中国不拥有台湾主权” 已经达成一个共识。
这份挺台动议案是由加拿大魁人政团(Bloc Québécois)发起,众议员佩龙 (Yves Perron)用法语在众议院上宣读动议,他说:“众议院认为联合国1971年10月25日通过的2758号决议,并未确立中华人民共和国对台湾的主权,也未决定台湾的未来或其在联合国机构或国际组织的参与。”
动议案并提到加拿大与台湾在经贸丶科技丶教育丶青年交流丶产业丶艺术丶文化及原住民事务等领域紧密合作、极富成效且符合加拿大外交政策,议员们将继续支持台湾有意义参与国际组织,如世界卫生组织(WHO)及国际民航组织(ICAO)。
在掌声中,众议院全院无异议通过动议案。
佩龙在油管上贴出众议院通过的影片中,还搭配文字说:“中国正在操纵2758决议的含义,使其在台湾领空和领海的军事行动合法化。简而言之,中国国家习近平就是用它来支持其恐吓手段,声称台湾是中国的。”
「对中政策跨国议会联盟」(IPAC)7月底在台北举行的年会上,23个国家议员代表共同通过一份决议,批评中国扭曲2758号决议,并与所谓的“一中原则”不当连结。佩龙是当时参与年会的加拿大国会议员之一。
精通台湾研究的渥太华大学教授史国良(Scott Simon)说,对中政策跨国议会联盟的决议文成为世界各国议会支持台湾的范本,很高兴看到加拿大正式把台湾问题视为国际问题,不属于中国内政。“我想台湾不属于中国已经是加拿大朝野的共识了,早在1970年加中建交公报中,加拿大就已说有注意到(takes note)中国政府对台湾问题的立场,但从来没有表示认可支持。”
驻加拿大台北经济文化代表处代表曾厚仁说,加拿大一直与台湾有很多方面的紧密交流,但要政治人物公开对台湾问题表态并不容易,很多议员并不清楚联合国2758号决议文内容,代表处花大量功夫解释与游说。“我们要印那个2758号的决议文给他们看,幸好那个决议文很短啊,决议文都在我们手机上,如果我们正好没有印出来,我就拿手机给他们看。2758号的决议文就是这样,我们讲的完全是事实,里面完全没有讲到台湾。”
中国驻加拿大大使馆对众议院的挺台动议案深表不满,发声明表示,此举是侵犯中国主权,敦促加方立即停止利用台湾议题干涉中国内政。
责编:梒青 网编:伍檫愙
自2021年缅甸军方发动政变以来,军政权领导人敏昂莱(Min Aung Hlaing)在本周首次访问中国。在政变后,缅甸已陷入长达三年的内战,持续的冲突已导致上百万人流离失所。外界普遍认为,中国是唯一有能力结束缅甸内战的国家,因此中国的缅甸政策备受各界关注。
本周四,中国国务院总理李强在昆明会见了缅甸军政权领导人敏昂莱。这是自2021年缅甸军方政变掌权以来,敏昂莱首次访华。他此行是为了出席“大湄公河次区域经济合作”第八次领导人会议,该机制成员包括中国、缅甸、泰国、老挝、越南和柬埔寨6国。
敏昂莱访华之际,缅甸国内正经历激烈的内战。自三年前军方拘押民主派领袖昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)后,部分民族武装团体与军方持续交火。而中国作为缅甸军政权的重要盟友和主要的武器供应国,同时也与部分反叛组织保持联系。
中国官媒新华社报道,在李强和敏昂莱会晤时,李强强调,中国将中缅关系置于周边外交的重要位置,两方将持续加深政治互信,深化战略合作。同时,中方支持缅方推进政治和解,并希望共同打击网赌电诈等跨境犯罪,也呼吁缅方切实保障中方在缅人员、机构和项目安全。
据缅甸国家媒体《缅甸环球新光报》报道,敏昂莱在会晤中表示,中国是缅甸的第二大投资国,缅方高度重视中方投资、项目及人员的安全,缅中双方也将继续深化经济和技术合作。关于内战问题,敏昂莱提到,缅甸军方在2018年宣布停火并致力于和平,但武装组织发动袭击,迫使军政权采取反击措施。他强调,如果武装组织真心渴望和平,和平的大门始终敞开。他还谈到,李强承诺支持缅甸军政权提出的“五点路线图”解决方案,协助缅甸举行选举,并将支持缅甸的内部和平与稳定。
敏昂莱访华:中国为何加大对缅甸军政权支持?
自缅甸内战爆发以来,中国在民族武装团体与军政权之间的支持立场始终游移不定。外界普遍认为,敏昂莱长期争取以缅甸领导人身分访问中国,借此彰显中国对军政权的支持。而此次他如愿与李强在昆明的会晤,尽管规格低于国事访问,但依然引发外界好奇:中国对缅甸各派系的支持态度是否已发生变化?
对此,美国华盛顿智库威尔逊中心(Wilson Center)东南亚高级研究助理卢卡斯·麦尔斯(Lucas Myers)在接受采访时表示,邀请敏昂莱访问昆明的确为中国政府的外交举措,显示北京当局将加强对军政权的背书:“北京从2021年开始就一直拒绝敏昂莱的访问请求,因为中国对缅甸的内部冲突有不同的考量。不过中国对缅政策在过去一年有巨大改变。”
麦尔斯指出,中国政府的政策转向反映出其视军政权为唯一能够维持缅甸稳定的力量。然而,麦尔斯对北京的这一评估持不同意见:“今年6月,反叛军的大规模行动让中国重新调整对缅政策,中国意识到缅甸军政权实力相当衰退,但它没有决定转而支持武装团体,反而评估认为军政权是唯一可以避免缅甸四分五裂的政权。因此,中国决定加强对军政权的支持。我其实认为这项评估是错误的。”
美国华盛顿智库美国和平研究所(USIP)缅甸部主任杰森·托尔(Jason Tower)也告诉本台,2023年,中国因打击电信诈骗问题与缅甸军政权关系一度紧张,随后转而支持部分民族武装团体。然而,随着这些团体占领的领土持续扩展,局势开始引发中国的担忧:“这种情势让中国感到挫折,并使其再次倾向于缅甸军政权。因此,我认为在过去的一年里,中国正在逐渐靠近军方,并对民族武装组织施加更多压力。”
托尔谈到,中国曾经尝试居中调停缅甸内战,并在今年1月成功使缅北掸邦地区的停火,但进一步的谈判在今年5月破局,导致地区冲突再度升温。目前,除了加强对军政权的支持外,中国也尝试对武装团体施压以达到停火目的。
托尔说:“在协议破裂后,中国无法让各方重返谈判桌,而民族武装组织在战场则持续击败缅甸军队。......中国目前尝试向民族武装组织施加巨大压力,包括关闭边境、切断电力供应和网络、暂停贸易、及切断物资流动。但到目前为止,这一策略并未奏效。少数民族武装组织仍在抵抗缅甸军队,并已解放了更多领土。”
两位学者指出,中国在缅行动的核心考量在于确保地区,特别是中缅边境的稳定,从而保障在缅甸的重大“一带一路”投资项目能够顺利推进。
托尔说道:“中国对其在缅甸的地缘战略投资尤为关注。对于中国而言,中缅油气管道项目是其西南省份唯一的管道油气来源,此外,中国数十年来一直有意通过缅甸获得进入印度洋的通道。......然而,由于国内冲突加剧,这些地区的许多投资已经停滞,产能也受到严重影响。”
学者:中国干涉缅甸内政 引发缅甸内部反华情绪
与此同时,中方邀请敏昂莱访华的消息引发缅甸武装团体强烈不满。据《联合早报》报道,缅甸影子政府“民族团结政府”和地方武装组织在本周二召开线上记者会,谴责中国接待敏昂莱的行为无助于改善中缅关系,反而会加深缅甸民众对中国的疑虑。他们还重申立场,强调中国不应承认“非法军事委员会”。
事实上,北京当局同时与缅甸军政权及武装团体保持友好关系,已引发缅甸民众多次抗议。今年10月,中国驻曼德勒总领馆发生爆炸,导致建筑受损但无人伤亡。缅甸军政权将此事件定性为恐怖袭击,但这突显了中方在缅甸问题上的双重立场已激化缅甸境内的不满。此前,支持军方的团体也曾在仰光的中国大使馆外发起抗议活动。
托尔就此分析表示,如今中国加大对军政权的支持,这只会增强缅甸内部的反华情绪:“主要的问题是,缅甸民众并不认为军政权的政权具有合法性。你可以看到,国内的叛乱在过去几个月不断增加......人民对于经济前景感到不满,军政权对于人民的压迫也在增大,包含对新闻自由与言论自由的管控。”
麦尔斯也认为,中国援助军政权的作法将加剧缅甸内部冲突,长期而言反将损害中方利益:“北京其实在让缅甸状况越来越糟。北京正在选边站,公开帮助军政权及打压武装团体,但我认为北京选错边了,这反而加剧缅甸内部的反华情绪。......此外,缅甸军政权已经宣布民族武装团体为恐怖组织,并加强对其轰炸。这显示其实就连军政权都不想要和谈。缅甸的内战会是长期战争,尽管中国想要停火和稳定,这个目标在短期将很难达成。”
中方支持明年缅甸大选 学者:恐加剧北京困境
另一方面,今年8月,中国外交部长王毅访问缅甸。他与敏昂莱在首都内比都会晤时重申,中国支持缅甸军政权提出的“五点路线图”以实现政治和解。据国际媒体报道,王毅还承诺,中国将提供必要援助,协助缅甸开展普查,为2025年的缅甸大选必要程序做好准备。不过,无论是缅甸民众还是外界,普遍对这场大选不抱任何期望。
托尔指出,2025年的大选显然不会是一场公平的选举,因为在2020年选举中获得多数民众支持并获胜的全国民主联盟(NLD)已被解散,其领导人昂山素季等人仍被军政权关押。在主要政党缺席的情况下,这场选举只会沦为军政权用以合法化其统治的工具。
托尔说:“缅甸主要的政党已经不再活跃。军政权扶植了多个代理政党,试图营造多党存在的假象。但实际情况是,政治反对派已经没有政治参与的空间。......中国因为决定加强对军政权的支持,它也会支持军政权提出的内战解决方案。不过,我觉得大选只会为中国带来更多麻烦,因为选举只会激化缅甸内部大量的不满情绪,它也无法终止战火。”
责编:安克 网编:伍檫愙
近几个月来,中国政府要求富人和企业“自查”纳税情况,并补交任何欠税。这些税收要求,引发了一些富人惶恐不安。在中国房地产行业低迷,经济下行的背景下,地方政府想方设法增加收入,以填补财政空缺。此前,地方政府滥用罚没收入增加创收,如今又将镰刀瞄准富豪的海外收益。有外媒表示,此举可能进一步削弱投资者对中国的信心。本期节目将就此话题进行探讨。参加讨论的嘉宾是美国马里兰州战略与信息研究所经济学者李恒青。
富人和企业被要求“自查”纳税情况
英国金融时报日前报道,近几个月来,中国地方政府寻找收入来补充因房地产衰退而耗尽的金库之际,中国税务官员要求富有的个人和企业对纳税情况进行“自查”,并补交任何欠缴的税款。
这轮税收行动启动之际,北京方面即将宣布一项大规模财政刺激计划的细节,预计该计划将侧重恢复地方政府的财政状况。
今年第三季度,中国经济增长未能达到5%的官方目标,北京因此启动了刺激计划。
中国官方数据显示,今年1月到9月,中国财政总收入同比下降2.2%,达到约16.3万亿元人民币。
而中国政府主要收入来源之一的卖地收入,今年头九个月较去年同期下滑了25%。同期全国税收收入下降5.3%。许多地方政府面临难以支付公务员薪资和供应商货款的困境。
金融时报引述一位驻中国的税务合伙人的话说,这些税收要求,在北京、上海和深圳等城市的富人中引起不安,甚至恐惧。许多人不知道要申报什么,也不清楚他们的海外个人收益必须在中国纳税。
彭博社此前报道,为了响应习近平的“共同富裕”的口号,中国税务机关近期一直在找富人谈话,而其他人被要求进行自我评估。有知情人士表示,一些被谈话的人拥有至少1000万美元的海外资产,而其他人则是香港和美国上市公司的股东。他们可能面临高达20%的投资收益税,逾期付款可能还要补交罚款。
对富人和企业海外投资收益征税的事实,凸显中国政府扩大税收的紧迫感。报道引述苏州一家中型制造公司的高管的话说,地方政府显然没有钱。他还补充说,地方政府经常对他所在地区的公司处以高额罚款。
根据第一财经报道,去年16个省中有7个省的罚没收入大幅增长,重庆和北京分别增长了22.4%和21.9%,许多地方政府已经停止公布罚款记录。
波士顿咨询集团2018年曾经估计,在中国24万亿美元个人财富中,约有1万亿美元存放在海外。根据联合国的数据,中国富人移民数量出现激增。
海外富人税来了?
由于中国政府开始关注富人和企业的海外收益是否涉及逃税漏税问题,引发了舆论对于“海外富人税”的关注。
根据第一财经报道,中国当前的税法中,针对境外所得征收个人所得税尚无具体细则。
报道引述北京大成律师事务所的合伙人肖飒的话说,相比国际上大部分发达国家较为完备的制度,中国在境外个人所得税征收方面的法律相对滞后。2020年出台相关法规,但在过去几年具体落实方面并不严格。
不少人士认为,对应税居民境外所得征税是大势所趋,中国跟进国际做法只是时间问题。但肖飒表示,若未来中国严格按照相关政策法律征收,可能面临部分应税居民通过转换国籍、资产转移等方式进行避税。
1980年个人所得税法中规定居民个人对境外所得需要自行申报纳税。2018年新修订的个人所得税延续了该规定,即居民个人从中国境内和境外取得的所得,均应依法在中国缴纳个人所得税。
根据2018年第七次修订的《个人所得税法》,纳税人包括居民个人和非居民个人。居民指在中国境内有住所,或者无住所但居住满183天的人。而非居民指的是在中国境内无住所又居住不满183的人。居民的境内和境外的所得,依法缴纳个人所得税。而非居民应税所得为从中国境内取得的所得。
同年修订的实施条例,对于在中国境内无住所的境外所得征税给予部分豁免权,即在境内无住所,累计居住满183天的年度连续不满六年,境外单位支付的所得,免于缴纳个人所得税;在境内居住累计满183天的任何一个年度中,有一次离境超过30天,其在中国境内居住累计满183天的连续年限重新起算。该文件从2019年一月一日开始实施。
境外收益纳税是大势所趋
从国际来看,大部分发达国家都建立了对应税居民境外所得征税的相关制度,并且已经有100多个国家签署并执行了“经济合作与发展组织”OECD提出的AEOI标准,并通过“通用报告标准”CRS( Common Report Standard) 共享应税居民的相关财产信息。
AEOI的全称为“金融账户涉税信息自动交换标准”,其中包括主管当局间协议范本MCAA和通用报告标准CRS两个部分。其中MCAA是各国税务当局关于双边或多边进行金融账户涉税信息自动交换的操作程序和相关法律的规范文件。CRS则是规定金融机构识别、收集、申报外国税收居民账户信息给本国税务主管机构的要求和程序,被视为一个全球征税系统。
基于上述协议范本和报告准则,主管机构通过CRS收集信息以MCAA约定的方式在不同国家主管机构之间共享,达到打击利用自己出境逃税的目的。
目前承诺实施CRS的国家和地区已经达到142个,确定交换信息到中国大陆的辖区则已经达到105个。根据CRS标准,居民个人境外机构账户、个人境外资产信息和个人基本信息均会被交换给中国税务监管机关。
根据财政部、税务总局在2020年公告的3号文件,所谓个人境外所得主要分为八大类,主要包括劳动、知识产权、财产转让等。
据第一财经报道,中央财经大学财政税务学院副院长李小荣表示,过去中国对居民个人境外所得征税不严格,是多重客观因素所致,执行力度提高是未来趋势,但仍有诸多难点需要攻克。
他说,首先个人所得税全球征收要求税务机关核查居民个人纳税人在全球范围内的收入信息,对于境外所得的监管和征税需要完善国际信息共享协作机制,以及完备的国际合作规则和程序。目前税务机关难以全面掌握居民个人的境外收入情况。其次,经济全球化导致各国之间存在税收竞争,税收竞争形成的税收优惠、避免双重征税协定等规定,增加了政策执行的复杂性。他说,随着国际税收合作机制的完善和税收情报交换网络的扩张,涉税信息的交互和联动日益加强,中国个人所得税全球征税的执行力度可能会提高。
如果您对本节目有什么意见和建议,欢迎写信到fankui@rfa.org.或主持人饶怡明的推特账号RFA_RYM进行联系。
11月8日,菲律宾总统小马科斯签署两项新法,宣示菲律宾在南海的管辖区域,并为外国船只和飞机划定航道。中国为此召见菲律宾驻中大使提出严正交涉,并批评菲律宾通过国内立法强化南海的“非法”裁决。
据美联社报道,菲律宾的“海洋区域法”和“群岛海道法”拒绝中国对几乎整个南海的主权主张,违反者将面临监禁和高额罚款。小马科斯说,这标志着菲律宾保护海洋资源、维护生物多样性和确保水域仍是菲律宾民众生计来源的决心。
报道指出,《海洋区域法》划定菲律宾群岛的领土和外围水域边界,包括向外延伸200海里的专属经济区。外国船只和飞机只要不构成威胁,即能行使国际法规定的“无害通行”权利;《群岛海道法》则是在菲律宾群岛上划定海上航道和空中航线,外国船只和飞机可在遵守国际法和菲律宾监管下通行。
中国外交部发言人毛宁周五在例行记者会上表示,菲律宾意图将中国的黄岩岛和南沙群岛大部分岛礁及相关海域非法纳入菲方海洋区域,中方将予以坚决应对。她并重申,上述两个法案违反《南海各方行为宣言》,将导致南海局势复杂化;中国不承认也不接受任何基于南海仲裁案裁决的主张或行动。
美联社报道指出,马科斯签署的法律内容尚未公布,因此尚不清楚菲律宾将如何执行这些法律。但《海洋区域法》的最终版本写道,“菲律宾专属经济区内建造的所有人工岛屿都属于菲律宾政府”,而中国已在南海争议海域,將美济礁等7个岛礁改造成配备导弹防御系统的岛屿军事基地。
2016年海牙常设仲裁庭特别法庭的决定支持几乎菲律宾在南海的所有声索要求,中方拒绝《联合国海洋法公约》的强制争端解决条款,不承认该仲裁的法律效力。
责编:安克 网编:何足
两名西藏消息人士称,一名来自四川省的西藏环保人士在社交媒体上公开呼吁,要求对一家他指控从河流中非法开采砂石的公司采取行动,之后中国当局关闭了他的微信账户,并将他拘留。此外,在印度的藏人行政中央司政边巴次仁近日访问了印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦,并向当地的流亡藏人发表演讲。边巴次仁指出,除了藏人行政中央所秉持的“中间道路”政策以外,没有其他办法可以解决藏中冲突。本期节目中,我们就一同来深入了解这些情况。
据西藏知情人士透露,一名来自四川省的藏人在中国社交媒体上罕见地公开呼吁当局对他指控的一家公司采取行动,该公司从当地河床非法开采砂子和砾石。
10月15日,西藏红原县查尔玛乡藏人搓俄泽让在微信发布了一段5分钟视频,称安徽先河建筑工程有限公司的开挖工程造成了严重的水土流失,查尔玛河水位下降。
由于担心公开反对当局或国家批准的项目而遭到政府报复,此类公开呼吁很少见。
两名来自西藏内部的消息人士称,当局随后关闭了他的微信账户,并屏蔽了与他名字相关的搜索词。这两名消息人士与本报道中的其他人一样,因担心遭到报复而拒绝透露姓名。
搓俄泽让的案例说明了当局如何压制那些指责中国公司违反环境法规或破坏环境的藏人。
搓俄泽让在视频中表示,西藏居民曾多次向地方当局呼吁,要求对该公司造成的环境损害采取行动,但没有结果。
视频中,他举起身份证说道:“安徽先河建筑工程有限公司营业部在查尔玛乡修路时,非法从河里开采沙石。” 他继续说道,
“大规模、不分青红皂白地从河里抽取沙子,导致周边地区水土流失严重,并对居民房屋的地基构成威胁”。
两位消息人士称,搓俄泽让的视频在网上引起了广泛关注,也被该平台上的其他用户广泛分享,但截至 10 月 17 日,这些视频都被删除,所有相关内容也被审查。
来自该地区的消息人士表示,他们担心来自阿坝藏族羌族自治州的搓俄泽让将因公开批评当局而受到惩罚。
西藏境内的其他四位消息人士证实了搓俄泽让的说法,即从当地河流中开采砂子造成了环境危害,当地人已向各级政府部门报告了这一问题。
消息人士称,他们还提供了照片和视频作为损坏的证据,但当局尚未采取任何行动。
搓俄泽让的视频一天内浏览量约为1万,收到了500多条网友评论,其中大多数人表示支持他的呼吁,呼吁保护环境,并呼吁中国官方媒体和当局重视这个问题。
搓俄泽让还在帖子中标记了中国官方媒体,以引起他们的注意。
影响黄河和长江
在视频中,搓俄泽让解释说,开采所在地的查尔玛河与中国最重要的两条河流长江和黄河水系相连。他说,
“这些河流源头的污染与当地生态系统和生物多样性的保护是紧密相连的问题,而且,这直接影响到亚洲的水资源和高海拔冻土的状况。”
10月17日,有消息人士告诉自由亚洲电台,搓俄泽让在网上发布视频后,红原县发展和改革办公室已承诺对此事进行彻底调查。
据中国官方媒体报道,阿坝州生态保护办公室的一名官员表示,该办公室已意识到这一问题,并正在与四川省生态环境监测办公室合作调查此事。
他说,这些机构将很快公布他们的调查结果。
搓俄泽让在视频中说道,“虽然环保政策多年前就出台了,但我们地区的执行问题仍然存在。”
他证实,红原县生态环境局于2024年4月回复了他的投诉,确认该建筑公司从河里采取砂石,并被处以罚款。
但搓俄泽让表示,这一回应只是为相关企业掩盖,并试图隐瞒问题。
他说:“他们避重就轻,没有采取任何恢复生态环境或治理水土流失的行动。他们只是在濒危房屋地基周围设置了障碍,并认为问题已经解决。”
“安徽先河建筑工程有限公司于2012年6月在中国注册,从事道路建设、城市发展、水电工程和环境保护工程等多项建设项目。
自由亚洲电台藏语组未能联系到该公司置评。
相关报道指出,一名西藏活动人士因揭露非法采砂、采石而被拘留。他的案例表明,当局迅速采取行动,压制那些对环境恶化提出担忧的人。
10月15日,红原县查尔玛乡的搓俄泽让在微信上发布了一段5分钟的视频,指责安徽先河建筑工程有限公司对查尔玛河造成严重的水土流失、水位下降等大面积环境破坏。
在他公开呼吁两天后(这在西藏是罕见的,因为在西藏公开反对当局或国家批准的项目往往会导致报复),官员传唤了 29 岁的搓俄泽让和其他村民进行询问。
分别居住在西藏和流亡中的消息人士称,他们最初都被释放了回家,但搓俄泽让在“一两天后”的 10 月 20 日再次被传唤并被拘留。
由于担心遭到中国当局的报复拒绝透露姓名的消息人士补充说,此后搓俄泽让一直被拘留。截至11月2日,搓俄泽让仍未获释。
该地区的藏人说,“他的家人和村民都很担心他,希望他能被释放,因为他们说他没有犯罪”。
搓俄泽让的拘留是藏人因发声而面临风险的一个例子,也是当局迅速采取行动压制那些对社区环境恶化提出担忧的人的声音又一个例子,特别是当这些人与中国公司有联系时。
总部位于华盛顿的人权组织国际声援西藏运动对举报人的安危表示担忧,并指出其他西藏环保人士因其激进主义而面临迫害。
环保活动家安雅·桑扎就是其中之一。 2019年,当他在网上抱怨腐败官员、非法采矿和猎捕受保护野生动物后,中国当局以扰乱社会秩序罪判处他七年有期徒刑。
政府的快速行动
搓俄泽让的视频在中国社交媒体上走红后,当局迅速采取行动,关闭了他的微信账户,并审查了该平台上与其名字相关的所有搜索词。
据自由亚洲电台获悉,这段视频在网上引起了广泛关注,并被该平台上的其他用户广泛分享,但截至 10 月 17 日,这些视频也被删除,所有相关内容都已被审查。
国际声援西藏运动表示:“这段在中国社交媒体上疯传的视频声明揭示了忽视环境、企业不负责任以及政府在保护亚洲重要水源方面明显不作为的令人不安的状况。”
该倡导组织在一份声明中表示:“这名年轻的藏族男子因表达对家乡环境破坏的不满并公开寻求赔偿而面临受到迫害的风险。”
搓俄泽让在视频中表示,西藏居民曾多次呼吁地方当局对该公司造成的环境损害采取行动,但没有结果。
搓俄泽让在举报视频中恳请“中央领导能够重视这一问题,对当地被破坏的生态环境进行实地调查,依法彻查违法企业的法律责任,追究相关部门领导责任人的失职渎职行为,深挖其中可能存在的利益徇私等腐败乱象并彻底治理,还百姓得以安居乐业的环境。”
搓俄泽让的举报视频被网友广泛转发,并受到“东方网”等中国媒体的关注。红原县有关部门称“将在核实情况后给公众一个交代”。数日后,搓俄泽让的举报视频被下架,微信公众号也被封禁。
此外,藏人行政中央司政边巴次仁于11月4日访问了印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦西卡门县的丹增冈与崩迪拉,并向两地的流亡藏人发表了演讲。
据藏人行政中央官网发布的消息指出,司政边巴次仁向民众发表演讲时表示,在印度境内共有37个流亡藏人社区,而美国等其他国家共有29个藏人集中居住的洲、省,他每次访问这些地区时,不仅仅是为了会见藏人民众,更重要的是要拜见各国政界人士推介西藏议题。
司政边巴次仁还表示,十六届内阁对流亡藏人社区的未来做出了长远的规划和安排,同时也努力向国际社会介绍西藏议题。边巴次仁指出,除了藏人行政中央所秉持的“中间道路”政策之外,没有其他途径可以解决藏中冲突。藏中两国必须透过举行会谈解决冲突,而藏中和谈的重启非常困难,因此,藏人民众必须呼吁国际社会帮助促进和谈。
近日美国智库高级国防研究中心一份报告显示,有些制药商依赖使用维吾尔人强迫劳动的供应链,而且尽管有美国法律,但甚至有两个美国政府机构也存在相关行为。本期节目中,我们就一起来深入详细了解详情。
一份新报告称,全球制药业依赖于中国偏远西部的新疆地区使用维吾尔族强迫劳动生产的原料,尽管人们努力消除供应链中的这种风险。
高级国防研究中心(C4ADS)的报告称,即使是美国两个政府机构——美国食品药品监督管理局和美国国际开发署(通过其承包商奇摩尼克斯国际 Chemonics International)也没有切断与新疆有关的药品供应商的联系。尽管美国法律要求美国公司确保其供应链中不存在强迫劳动,但这种情况仍在发生。
该报告的作者米谢尔·康迪 (Mishel Kondi) 告诉自由亚洲电台:“我们的研究结果表明,各国政府仍然与维吾尔地区存在联系,尤其是在制药领域。”
报告称,强迫维吾尔人劳动是中国共产党在大约有1200万维吾尔人居住的新疆采取的镇压措施之一,并且在该地区的经济中根深蒂固。
美国政府和一些西方国家议会已宣布中国政府对待新疆维吾尔人的方式,包括强迫劳动、大规模拘留和其他严重侵犯人权行为,构成种族灭绝和反人类罪。
报告中提到的中国公司通过从维吾尔人手中夺取并提供给企业使用的土地以及使用维吾尔族和哈萨克族强迫劳动来获利,从而加剧了对穆斯林少数民族的压迫。
报告还称,被拘留在拘留营中的维吾尔人被迫接受药物检测和医疗程序。
人类豚鼠
离开中国的维吾尔人,他们的叙述证实了这一点。
被迫在新疆将男子和妇女分别关押的拘留设施中教授中文的卡丽比努尔·斯迪克(Qelbinur Sidik)和前“再教育”营被拘留者米日古丽·图尔荪(Mihrigul Tursun)都告诉自由亚洲电台,当局强迫女孩和妇女服用导致她们月经停止和哺乳母亲的母乳干竭的药物。斯迪克说,
“这个营地中近 90% 的女性年龄在 18 至 40 岁之间。所有这些女性在服用这些药物和注射后月经都结束了。 连哺乳期的妈妈的奶水都停止了。”
她补充说,维吾尔族男子必须服用药片或注射,然后再抽血。她还说,
“我相信中国政府利用被拘留的维吾尔人进行实验来测试他们的药物”。
图尔荪则说,她必须服用的白色小药片令她胃部剧烈疼痛,并让她感到虚弱和昏昏欲睡。他们还让她停经六个月。她说,
“我每周接受一次药物治疗。我不知道它们是什么药。 他们从一本书上叫了你的号码。当他们叫到你的号码时,你张开嘴,他们给了我白色的小药片。他们检查了我们的嘴,以确保我们吞下了它们。”
图尔荪表示,她随后出现了严重的胃痛。她说, “我的整个身体变得虚弱、昏昏欲睡,头晕目眩,双腿发抖,持续了2-3天。”
中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇在电子邮件中回复自由亚洲电台采访时表示,有关新疆强迫劳动的指控是“反华势力编造的世纪谎言”,是“美国政客破坏新疆稳定、遏制中国发展的工具”。
刘鹏宇表示,美国基于谎言制定并实施了《2021年维吾尔族强迫劳动预防法》,禁止从新疆进口产品,除非经过证明不是强迫劳动制造的,并对新疆相关实体和个人实施制裁。他说,
“这是美国打着人权幌子打压中国的升级。 这也是美国蓄意破坏国际经贸规则、破坏国际产业链供应链稳定的证据。”
“美方应立即停止污蔑中国,停止以人权为幌子干涉中国内政、损害中国利益”。
仍有机构和企业从新疆进口货物
尽管新疆在中国医药生产行业中的地位不高,但该地区有 43 家获得许可的制药公司,而中国是世界上最大的活性药物成分生产国和世界第二大药品市场。
中国生产的661种产品包括对乙酰氨基酚颗粒、雌激素片剂和乳膏、以及中药和维吾尔药。报告称,从中国出口的 76 种药品仅在新疆生产,使全球供应链面临强迫劳动风险。
其中 11 家制造商是中国国有企业,21 家为私人所有,9 家为在其他行业有强迫劳动记录的公司所有,还有 2 家与中国国防承包商有关联。
报告称,没有一家制造商出现在《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》(UFLPA)规定的实体名单上。
报告显示,包括花旗集团和贝莱德在内的外国公司继续持有其中一些公司的股份。
报告指出,《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》的实施仍然薄弱,并称,
“供应链和公司结构往往不透明;执法机构缺乏足够的资源来跟踪、监控和执行法规,负责实施法规的不同机构仍在研究如何最有效地执行法规”。
报告同时指出,尽管《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》的推定是可驳回的——假设新疆制造的商品是通过强迫劳动生产的,因此根据美国 1930 年关税法被禁止——但只有一家来自新疆的制药生产商——晨光生物科技集团有限公司——被添加到实体清单中。
高级国防研究中心的报告,援引2023年全球健康供应链计划采购和供应管理项目的数据称,就在2019年,总部位于华盛顿的美国国际开发署承包商奇摩尼克斯国际从新疆天能化工有限公司购买了产品。
天能化工隶属于新疆生产建设兵团(简称兵团),这是一家在新疆运营的国有企业和准军事组织,已因侵犯人权而被列入实体清单。
报告称:“通过这次采购,奇摩尼克斯国际似乎在不知不觉中(通过贸易)为一家准军事实体子公司所拥有的公司提供了财务支持,该公司是侵犯人权的肇事者。”
针对高级国防研究中心的信息,奇摩尼克斯国际表示,它没有直接或间接从天能化工订购任何其他产品,也不打算这样做。
美国国际开发署发言人告诉自由亚洲电台,该机构优先考虑防止使用美国政府资金向可能使用强迫劳动的公司签订合同,并且其合作伙伴必须遵守联邦采购法规中禁止使用强迫劳动的法律要求。
发言人并称,奇摩尼克斯国际向美国国际开发署证实,除了 2019 年美国外国资产控制办公室实施制裁之前的一笔交易外,该公司没有从天能化工购买过任何产品,并表示已采取措施避免将来从该制造商采购。
报告还称,美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)已注册至少两家与新疆有关的药品生产商,授权它们向美国进口药品,尽管这些公司应该在《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》实体名单上。
美国食品药品监督管理局发言人表示,当有信息需要分享时,该机构将与我们联系。
报告称,日本药品和医疗器械机构在新疆注册了四家涉及生物技术和制药的实体,这些实体与解决该地区侵犯人权问题的努力相冲突。
具体而言,日本于 2022 年发布了指导方针,敦促在新疆设立的企业监控其供应链中的人权情况。次年,日本议会通过了一项决议,对中国维吾尔人的遭遇和其他侵犯人权行为表示担忧。
墨西哥和加拿大已经制定了强迫劳动立法,而欧盟今年也通过了强迫劳动禁令,将于 2027 年生效。
案例研究
10 月 8 日发布的这份长达 44 页的报告包括四个公司的案例研究,高级国防研究中心称这些公司应被排除在供应链之外,因为它们与侵犯人权行为有关,而执法部门却忽视了这些公司。
报告称,由中国国务院国资委直接管理的国药集团参与了中国共产党领导的“工作队”,这些“工作队”被认为是扶贫计划的主要组成部分,这些计划使农村维吾尔人遭受强迫同化和强迫劳动。
新疆德源生物工程有限公司是一家专门在新疆生产血浆药物的顶级制造商,该公司似乎直接受益于被迫流离失所的维吾尔人和政府补贴。
报告称,另一家生产结合雌激素的公司——新疆新姿源生物制药有限责任公司,也依赖维吾尔人劳动力,而生产西药、传统中药和维吾尔草药的新疆华世丹药业股份有限公司似乎也从当地人口的“再教育“拘禁中受益。
报告提出的建议
高级国防研究中心建议所有美国联邦机构对其采购实践是否符合反强迫劳动制裁制度进行评估。
报告称,与此同时,美国政府应增加资源并改善机构间合作,以更好地监测和执行制裁。
高级国防研究中心进一步建议美国政府通过改善对中国进口药品监管的多边协调以及通过与从中国进口药品的其他国家共享情报来加强双边和多边监管,从而加强现有的贸易协定。