© Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times
ReutersThe UN's Human Rights Office has condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, saying its analysis shows close to 70% of verified victims over a six-month period were women and children.
The agency said the high number was largely due to Israel's use of weapons with wide-area effects in densely populated areas, although some deaths may have been the result of errant projectiles by Palestinian armed groups.
The report said it found "unprecedented" levels of international law violations, raising concerns about "war crimes and other possible atrocity crimes".
Israel has in the past said it targets Hamas and takes steps to mitigate risk to civilians by using precise munitions.
The BBC contacted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment in response to Friday's report.
The UN agency said it verified the details of 8,119 people killed in Gaza from November 2023 to April 2024.
Its analysis found around 44% of verified victims were children and 26% women. The ages most represented among the dead were five to nine-year-olds.
About 80% of victims were killed in residential buildings or similar housing, the agency added.
The report said the data indicates "an apparent indifference to the death of civilians and the impact of the means and methods of warfare".
Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN sees as reliable, has reported a death toll of more than 43,300 people over the past 13 months. Many more bodies are believed to remain under the rubble of bombarded buildings.
The health ministry said it obtained full demographic data for a majority of those killed and reported that children account for one in three of that number.
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said in a statement that "this unprecedented level of killing, and injury of civilians is a direct consequence of the failure to comply with fundamental principles of international humanitarian law".
He cited the laws of distinction, which requires warring parties to distinguish between combatants and civilians, proportionality, which prohibits attacks where harm to civilians outweighs military advantage, and precautions in attacks.
Türk called for a "due reckoning with respect to the allegations of serious violations of international law".
The IDF has previously told the BBC in response to criticism that it "will continue to act, as it always has done, according to international law".
ReutersThe report also said the way the warring parties have conducted the conflict in Gaza has "caused horrific human suffering".
The UN said Palestinian armed groups have waged war from densely-populated areas and indiscriminately used projectiles, likely contributing to the death toll, while the IDF has destroyed civilian infrastructure and "left many of those alive, injured, displaced and starving, without access to adequate water, food or healthcare".
The situation is worst in north Gaza, which aid groups say has been under siege since early October when Israel launched a new ground offensive against Hamas.
The UN said no food aid entered the north during the first two weeks of October.
This prompted the US to issue an ultimatum to Israel to increase aid by 12 November or risk losing some military support.
Jan Egeland, the head of aid organisation Norwegian Refugee Council, told the BBC on Friday that he saw "devastation, despair, beyond belief" on a recent visit to Gaza.
"There is hardly a building that is not damaged. And large areas looked like Stalingrad after the Second World War. You cannot fathom how intense this indiscriminate bombing has been on this trapped population," he said.
"It's evident that it is first and foremost children and women who are paying a price for this senseless war," he added.
Israel launched its current military offensive in Gaza after Hamas' attack on 7 October 2023 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages back to Gaza.
Getty ImagesBeyoncé has made history by becoming the most-nominated artist of all time at the Grammy Awards, overtaking her husband Jay-Z.
The couple had been tied on 88 nominations each - but Beyoncé has now pulled ahead thanks to recognition for her latest album, Cowboy Carter.
She picked up her 89th nomination in the best pop solo performance category on Friday, for the song Bodyguard. The full shortlists for the 2025 awards are currently being announced.
Beyoncé is already the Recording Academy's most-honoured artist, with 32 wins as a solo artist and a further three as part of Destiny's Child.
However, she has never won the coveted album of the year trophy, despite four nominations in the category.
Most recently, Harry Styles beat her to that prize at the 2023 ceremony, where Beyoncé's disco odyssey Renaissance had been the bookmakers' favourite to win.
Earlier this year, Jay-Z appeared to scold Grammy voters for Beyonce's lack of recognition in the top category as he accepted a lifetime achievement prize.
"I don't want to embarrass this young lady," he told the audience. "But she has more Grammys than everyone and never won album of the year.
"So even by your own metrics, that doesn't work. Think about that. The most Grammys; never won album of the year. That doesn't work."
She is widely expected to pick up her fifth nod for album of the year as the full nominations for the 2025 Grammys are revealed on Friday.
Other artists expected to be in the running for the top prize include Taylor Swift for The Tortured Poets Department, Billie Eilish for Hit Me Hard And Soft, and Chappell Roan for The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess.
The nominations for all 94 Grammy categories are being revealed in a livestream on the ceremony's YouTube Channel, featuring Kylie Minogue, Mark Ronson and Victoria Monét.
British star Raye picked up several early nominations, including songwriter of the year and best new artist.
The Rolling Stones were also on the shortlist for best rock album for Hackney Diamonds, their first album of original material since 2016.
This story will be updated as the shortlist comes into focus.
Getty ImagesNigeria has announced that free emergency Caesarean sections will be made available to "poor and vulnerable" women in an ambitious plan to bring down the high number of mothers dying in childbirth.
At 1,047 deaths per 100,000 live births, Africa's most populous nation has the fourth highest maternal mortality rate in the world and the lack of access to Caesareans is thought to be one of the reasons.
Many pregnant women, particularly in rural Nigeria are unable to receive emergency medical care partly due to the cost.
“No woman should lose her life simply because she can’t afford a C-section,” Health Minister Muhammad Pate said while announcing the "powerful move".
While the price may vary across Nigeria's different states, on average, a Caesarean costs around 60,000 naira ($36;£28) which can be beyond the reach of many.
More than 40% of Nigerians live below the international extreme poverty line of $2.15 per day, according to 2023 data from Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics.
The Maternal Mortality Reduction Innovation Initiative launched on Thursday will now allow all eligible women to access Caesarean sections in public hospitals.
To be a beneficiary, one must be registered under the country’s public health insurance scheme.
"By removing financial barriers to this life-saving procedure, we ensure that no woman in need is denied critical care due to cost," Pate added.
The health scheme covers emergency situations only, Tashikalmah Hallah, a communication adviser to the health minister, told the BBC.
Social welfare units in public hospitals will help determine eligibility and identify those who cannot afford the procedure, Mr Hallah added.
Pate said maternal mortality remained "unacceptably high".
Caesareans are seen as essential for preventing obstructed labour in cases where a woman’s pelvis is too small, the baby is in a breech position, or is too large to exit the birth canal.
Without intervention, a constricted baby may fatally rupture the uterus, or cause tears that catastrophically haemorrhage.
While offering to support the new initiative, the World Bank's Trina Haque, described it as a "game-changer".
“If implemented right, this initiative will deliver. We’re here to support every step of the way,” Kazadi Mulombo, the WHO country rep, said.
Causes of maternal deaths include severe haemorrhage, high blood pressure (pre-eclampsia and eclampsia), unsafe abortions and obstructed or prolonged labour.
The new policy will “improve maternal and child health outcomes in the country”, Rhoda Robinson, executive director of HACEY, an NGO advocating for healthcare access for vulnerable populations in Nigeria.
“Especially for women from low-income communities who might resort to alternative and often unsafe care options,” she told the BBC.
Mabel Onwuemena, national coordinator of the Women of Purpose Foundation, another NGO advocating for better maternal health access in Africa, praised the initiative and urged the Nigerian government to expand it to include free drugs and ultrasound to pregnant women.
Getty Images/BBCGo to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.
Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica
© Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
© Doug Mills/The New York Times
Is the weather getting you down? You are not alone. Mist, fog, low cloud and a distinct lack of sunshine seems to be the norm so far this month.
It is mild for the time of year but it has typically been dull, grey and misty. While there was some rain in Scotland last weekend, for much of England and Wales, apart from drizzle and general dampness, the last time we saw any appreciable rainfall was on Monday 28 October.
The last day with widespread sunshine was the day before that, though a few weather stations recorded several hours of sunshine around Halloween.
High pressure, or an anticyclone, is currently influencing our weather.
Such areas of high pressure block rain-bearing fronts and often mean extended dry periods. In the summer this often leads to warm, dry and sunny days with light winds. In autumn and winter, while sunny, clearer days are possible, high pressure can also result in "anticyclonic gloom".
This is when high pressure traps an area of moisture close to the surface of the Earth. The moisture forms low cloud, mist and fog, which then cannot lift and clear as the winds are so light and the sunshine at this time of year is so weak.
As the high persists, the low cloud continues to feed itself by re-thickening overnight as temperatures drop and moisture condenses. The quality of the air can also deteriorate as pollutants build, especially in cities.
Some parts of the country recorded no sunshine at all during the first week of November.
There is one part of the country that has fared much better than most, though. Eastern Scotland, sheltered by the Scottish mountains, has seen the cloud break up at times. On 3 November it was sunny all day in Leuchars, which is why this location is at the top of the sunshine chart below.
Total sunshine amounts for the first seven days of November
The jet stream, which is responsible for driving low pressure systems and weather fronts towards us from the Atlantic, is currently strengthening but remaining to the north of the UK.
Over the weekend a weather front encroaching from the Atlantic will bring some rain to northern and western areas of the UK. The front will weaken as pressure rises again on Sunday and the rain will die out.
Even though we start next with high pressure over the UK, this one looks like it will have less moisture and therefore less cloud and more sunshine.
This area of high pressure is not expected to be as dominant next week.
There could be some rain on Tuesday spreading in from the North Sea to mainly affect eastern areas. This rain will not last long but the high pressure could get pushed away with more force at the end of the week.
Some models are indicating a much colder north-westerly wind will bring a big change in the weather pattern at the start of next weekend.
That change is still a long way off but you can keep up to date with the weather where you are on the BBC Weather website or app.
Getty ImagesBeyoncé has made history by becoming the most-nominated artist of all time at the Grammy Awards, overtaking her husband Jay-Z.
The couple had been tied on 88 nominations each - but Beyoncé has now pulled ahead thanks to recognition for her latest album, Cowboy Carter.
She picked up her 89th nomination in the best pop solo performance category on Friday, for the song Bodyguard. The full shortlists for the 2025 awards are currently being announced.
Beyoncé is already the Recording Academy's most-honoured artist, with 32 wins as a solo artist and a further three as part of Destiny's Child.
However, she has never won the coveted album of the year trophy, despite four nominations in the category.
Most recently, Harry Styles beat her to that prize at the 2023 ceremony, where Beyoncé's disco odyssey Renaissance had been the bookmakers' favourite to win.
Earlier this year, Jay-Z appeared to scold Grammy voters for Beyonce's lack of recognition in the top category as he accepted a lifetime achievement prize.
"I don't want to embarrass this young lady," he told the audience. "But she has more Grammys than everyone and never won album of the year.
"So even by your own metrics, that doesn't work. Think about that. The most Grammys; never won album of the year. That doesn't work."
She is widely expected to pick up her fifth nod for album of the year as the full nominations for the 2025 Grammys are revealed on Friday.
Other artists expected to be in the running for the top prize include Taylor Swift for The Tortured Poets Department, Billie Eilish for Hit Me Hard And Soft, and Chappell Roan for The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess.
The nominations for all 94 Grammy categories are being revealed in a livestream on the ceremony's YouTube Channel, featuring Kylie Minogue, Mark Ronson and Victoria Monét.
British star Raye picked up several early nominations, including songwriter of the year and best new artist.
The Rolling Stones were also on the shortlist for best rock album for Hackney Diamonds, their first album of original material since 2016.
This story will be updated as the shortlist comes into focus.
评审三大维度：科学指标评价体系下的“以数说话”、专家“背对背”实名评审、线上问卷调研和实地调研等相结合。
43家银行得分呈现出较为明显的分化格局。最高值和最低值相差超过70分。巨大的分值差异无不映射出逆周期环境下行业的生存现状。
存量规模不再有绝对优势，小而精开始受青睐。
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员 陈琰 实习生 戴铭杰 夏侯文凯 林蔼贤
责任编辑：丰雨
在貌似同质化的以万计理财产品面前，你会把“钱袋子”放心托付给哪家银行打理？换言之，哪家银行更有能力看管你的“钱袋子”？
事实上，每一位居民的“钱袋子”早已是各银行“争夺”的目标。这是因为各银行近年来净财富管理视作战略高地。尤其近四年，在核心利润源净息差被持续挤压至史上新低的大势中， 以中间业务手续费为主要收入源的财富管理业务成为银行战略性抢占的第二增长极。以大零售业务领先的招商银行行长王良于2024年年初更提出“打造大财富管理的马利克增长曲线”。自此，“马利克曲线”被银行业称为未来增长新动能。
但随着资管新规过渡期结束并于2022年全方位落地和2023年国家金融监督管理总局（简称“金监总局”）资管司首度设立运作，财富管理业务正面临日趋严苛的监管环境。与此同时，“聪明钱”在债股两个市场中的跷跷板效应愈加显现。这更考验银行的专业应对能力。
此种情境下，银行业财富管理业务呈现怎样的新现象？哪些银行已领先同业，更值得公众信赖？哪些银行在掉队？症结何在？
为解答上述疑问，南方周末新金融研究中心在2023年财富管理榜评价指标体系基础上，因应监管和市场之变大幅优化评价指标体系，并依据2022年和2023年年报数据，对43家银行（包含42家上市银行和系统重要性银行之一广发银行股份有限公司）进行测算和排名，历时半年精心制作并于2024年7月发布“2024年金标杆——财富管理榜之银行榜初榜”。初榜在业内引起较大反响，被认为指标评价体系科学且数据扎实。
9月开始，南方周末新金融研究中心继续以各机构公布的2024年中报数据为基础对相关指标体系下的数据进行更新。对评分权重占比较大但于2024年中报中未披露的少数数据，仍以2023年财报数据，作为补充求证。及时更新数据，力求贴合市场变化。
与此同时，南方周末新金融研究中心对被测评的43家银行展开深度问卷调查、线上调研和实地走访部分机构（相关文章见《“五篇大文章”恰满周年，2024年“金标杆”揭榜在即》）。同期，遴选相关领域资深专家组成独立专家评审团，评审专家对相关榜单均“背对背”独立实名评审。（相关文章见《“背对背”实名打分，“金标杆”专家评审团都有谁？》）。
在上述三类分值各占一定权重的基础上，南方周末新金融研究中心制作并公布“2024年金标杆——财富管理榜”终榜（榜单排名见文章末尾处）。这是“2024年金标杆—中国新金融竞争力榜”11个子榜单之一。客观、科学、公正和透明是“金标杆”严格遵循的四大原则。
测评范围如何划定？
2024年财富管理榜测评范围大幅拓展，由2023年测评的20家系统性重要银行扩展至43家，包括42家A股上市银行和尚未上市但属于系统性重要银行的广发银行股份有限公司。
面对庞杂的财富管理业务，如何测评科学更公正？南方周末新金融研究中心采取“以数说话、专家评审、深调研”三大维度。在三大维度中，以数说话依然是重中之重，占整体权重70%。这是因为各家银行公开披露的数据更客观，更具有可比性。
在“以数说话”维度中，南方周末新金融研究中心借鉴监管指标、国内外相关评级体系及征求专家和业内人士意见，大幅调整和优化2023年指标评价体系。2024年财富管理榜的指标评价体系最终设定为“零售业务”“理财子公司”“私人银行”和“监管评定”四大维度及其对应的22项子指标，并被赋予不同权重。（相关文章见《财富管理榜：银行第二曲线，谁是领军者？》）
值得一提的是，在测算得分时，为体现此次测评寻求行业标杆的意义，部分指标对应得分均以被测评对象最优者为参照物，因此会出现总得分偏低的情形。
数据是“骨感”的，数据揭示的背后问题则是现实而复杂的。因此，包括深度问卷调研在内的线上调研、线下实地调研成为洞察“现实而复杂”问题的基本方法。其中，一套深度而专业的问卷涉及的信息量极其丰富。2024年财富管理榜调研问卷以“策略+优秀案例”的方式对各银行相关领域的发展方向及先进做法进行深入调研，重点关注中间收入普遍下滑环境下如何生存、理财子公司如何提高产品竞争力以及私行领域的产品创新等具现实意义的热点问题。
在问卷回收环节，南方周末新金融研究中心注意到多家银行围绕相关问题给出了较为翔实的回答。多家银行均认为，投研能力是资产管理机构的核心竞争力。在市场利率下行的环境下，如何准确判断债券投资机会、适当配置跨境资产则是提高相关业务领域竞争力的有效方式。产品创新方面，作为国内家族信托业务的开拓者，平安银行则专门针对中产阶级设置了门槛为100万元的保险金信托。类似做法均彰显出各商业主体在私行业务领域的创新。而针对2024年以来，监管部门对零售及财富管理领域实施严监管等系列行为，有城商行在调研问卷中提出监管机构应着力于促进市场公平竞争，防止垄断，鼓励各金融机构通过提高服务质量和效率而非打价格战的方式来吸引客户，对尚处于财富管理业务发展初级阶段以及具有服务客户本地化特点的农商行，应加强辅导帮助，推动财富管理业务本土化发展等建议。
独立的专家评审团“背对背”测评打分则体现了外部专家的独立性。南方周末新金融研究中心综合评审团9名专家评审意见进行统计分析发现，老牌零售银行招行得票数量位居榜首，而零售资源丰富但私行业务起步较晚的邮储银行亦在“43选3”的激烈竞争中获得专家投票。股份行序列中，除招行外的兴业银行、中信银行、光大银行、宁波银行和广发银行均获得相应得分。
三大维度测评之后，哪些银行的成绩单亮眼？高分者的密码是什么？
南方周末新金融研究中心依照拟定评分规则对43家银行总分进行测算。结果显示，工行得分居冠军之位。与此同时，包括农行、建行、中行、邮储银行和交行在内的6家国有银行跻身榜单前十名，凸显财富管理市场的规模效应。招行、兴业银行、中信银行和平安银行在内的4家股份制银行亦入围前十。其中，招行表现较优，总得分排名在43家银行中位列第二，仅次于工行。
若分梯队观察，在榜单前十名中，国有行和股份行席位比值为6：4；前十佳获得高分的密码是什么？南方周末新金融研究中心分别以国有银行和股份行序列中排名第一的工行和招行进行个案透视发现，在零售客户总资产和私人银行客户数量的多项分值中，工行均获得对应考评分数满分值。零售客户数量一项得分则排名第二，仅次于农行。与此同时，工行在其2023年年报中亦对已开展的家族信托业务进行披露，彰显出该行于私行业务领域的创新和探索。综合其在专家评审环节和调研项中的得分，工行稳居总榜第一“宝座”。
如果说工行于财富管理业务领域的优胜跟先天资源造就的规模效应有关，有“零售之王”称誉的招行则呈现出不同的发展格局。南方周末新金融研究中心验算对比发现，区别于工行等国有银行，招行在理财子公司净利润、理财子公司规模、个人存款/零售AUM、个人活期存款占比等4个测评指标中均获得考评刻度内满分。截至2024年中期，招行个人存款在零售AUM中占比约27%，远低于部分国有银行80%左右的同期水平。与此同时，其个人活期存款占比接近48%，明显优于排名第二的农行（37.10%）。南方周末新金融研究中心认为，此两项指标的领先足见招行在财富管理业务领域深耕多年且策略有效。在市场利率下行导致净息差持续收窄的行业环境下，招行财富管理业务沉淀了大量低成本的活期存款，真正实现了对银行主要收入来源——净利息收入的反哺。专家评审团对工行和招行的赋分情形仅略微差别。而在调研维度，招行更略胜一些。
被测评的11家股份行中，唯浙商银行一家未入围前二十名。这与其在相关指标上披露度有限存在关联。但南方周末新金融研究中心观察到其私行客户及资产数量同比增幅超出行业均值。而在43家被测评银行中，仅有3家银行在此项定性评价中获分。与此同时，浙商银行亦在年报中就其家族信托业务的开展情况进行披露。上述两个侧面已说明其正发力私行业务领域。
在被测评的19 家城商行中，5家城商行现身榜单前二十名。
其名次排序依次为宁波银行、杭州银行、南京银行、江苏银行和北京银行。若以地理区位进行划分，5家城商行中4家位于经济相对发达的长三角地区，另一家则位居北京据此可知，财富管理业务发达程度与地域经济活跃度存在正关联的论断。
五家城商中的优异者有何个体差异？南方周末新金融研究中心观测“领军者”宁波银行多项指标数据发现，其在私行领域呈现出较为突出的成长性。包括私行客户资产增速、零售客户数量均在城商行序列拔得头筹，且其是唯一一家在“私行客户资产及数量同比增速超行业均值”的城商行。这意味着，虽位列第三阵营，但宁波银行在私行领域的发展已在业内攻得一席之地。
南方周末新金融研究中心同期以问卷形式向宁波银行调研获知，截至目前，该行在北京、上海、深圳及江浙沪等17个主要城市设立私人银行部，开展属地化管理。区别于垂直管理，属地化管理可以第一时间满足客户的资产配置需求。
同时入围前二十的杭州银行和江苏银行也各有所长。2024年中期，杭州银行旗下理财子公司杭银理财净利润排名在可比同业中排名第一。而一直在理财能力上声誉颇佳的江苏银行则在零售及私行客户总资产两项硬核指标上居19家城商行第一位。
前二十名中，国有行、股份行和城商行席位比值为6：9：5。这显然能说明5家城商行的财富管理实力不可小觑。相较之下，被测评的8家农商行无一上榜，财富管理能力与其他类型银行仍存在显著区别。南方周末新金融研究中心梳理测评结果显示，入围评选的农商行中，仅渝农商行一家有理财子公司。综合问卷反馈结果，包括张家港商行和沪农商行在内的几家农商行均表现出对私行业务领域的积极部署，并认为家族信托及保险金信托是产品创新方向。
以各机构得分定名次的榜单，折射了怎样的财富管理行业格局和发展逻辑？
从总体分值观察，43家银行得分呈现出较为明显的分化格局。南方周末新金融研究中心统计发现，43家银行中，最高值和最低值相差超过70分。巨大的分值差异无不映射出逆周期环境下行业的生存现状。
在测算初榜及终榜分值过程中，南方周末新金融研究中心发现，在43家银行中，24家已获得理财子公司牌照。2023年，24家银行控股理财子公司理财规模实现正增长者仅有10家，利润实现正增长者则减至7家，利润和规模同期实现正增长者更低至2家。市场等诸多因素影响下的行业现状可见一斑。
在存款持续利率下行而债市反向走好的双重因素下，“存款搬家”浪涌。2024年中期，各理财子公司的生存状况迎来转机。南方周末新金融研究中心对比测算得知，当期有18家理财子公司理财规模实现同比正增，16家理财子公司实现净利润同比正增。截至2024年6月末，银行理财规模更是逼近30万亿元历史峰值。这无疑为财富管理业务发展创造新的动能。然而资产荒之下，债市持续走牛，机构单赛道疯抢押注，引发监管频频出手遏制。以债券为主要底层资产的银行理财仍然面临净值回撤风险。
财富管理业务应进行怎样的变革？首只理财产品面世至今已20年，银行财富管理业务一直稳步发展。在净息差持续收窄的市场环境下，财富管理业务必将愈加为各行所倚重。与此同时，随着监管行为趋严趋细，理财子牌照资源更加稀缺。此种情境下，手持牌照的先行者应精进自身业务，逐步消除当前理财市场产品同质化严重、资产配置策略整体单一和投研能力较弱的顽疾。后来者则应苦练投研内功以获得入场券。
然而，在目前的考核机制下，规模扩张依然是银行财富管理板块的首要任务，销售驱动是核心业务模式。但财富管理业务的本质是“受人之托代人理财”，为客户谋取资金的保值增值才是正途。2023年5月，招银理财一款理财产品的产品说明书显示，在产品当日累计净值低于1元时，将从下一自然日起暂停收取固定投资管理费。即通俗说法上的“当产品不赚钱时，不再向投资者收取管理费。”但年余之后，跟从者寥寥。在养老理财产品逐渐增加之际，改变现有考核机制已迫在眉睫。财富管理业务应设置以客户资金保值增值为衡量基准的考核机制，而非惯用销售至上的指挥棒。
校对：星歌
法国计划向印太地区部属航空母舰打击群，标志其调整全球战略，及重返亚太的企图心，中国官方尚未对此公开表态，但透过国内媒体表达不满。
据本台英语组周五报道，法国海军日前宣布，未来四周准备重启其核动力航空母舰“戴高乐号”。另有报道称，戴高乐号将启程前往亚太地区。
法国海军声明表示，10 月 4 日至10月 25 日，戴高乐号的船员在地中海进行为期三周的训练，以恢复技术停机后的作战能力，但没有具体说明航母战斗群之后将前往何处。
巴黎的海军新闻（Naval News）援引一名法国高级军官的话称，戴高乐号将赴地中海东部、红海、印度洋和太平洋远处，还将第一次“历史性”访问日本和菲律宾。报道称，部署期间，约 3,000 名水手和海军飞行员将参加演习，其中一项的重点是印尼海峡的海事安全。
横须贺亚太研究理事会网络协调员布兰丁（Benjamin Blandin）表示，这次部署意义重大，标志着法国在印太地区的存在感大幅增加。他说，2019 年，法国宣布印太战略以来，法军的存在确实有所增长和多样化。
中国的反应
台湾的国防部上周表示，一艘法国军舰穿越台湾海峡。法国花月级护卫舰“牧月号”（Prairial, F731）自海峡中线西侧靠近中国的海域航行，美国和加拿大的舰艇则通常是航行在中线东侧靠近台湾的地方。
北京没有立即对此次过境提出抗议。但 11 月 4 日，中国的《环球时报》发表文章引述分析人士的话，谴责戴高乐号航母打击群如果部署在印太地区，是为了迎合北约向亚太扩张，不利于地区的和平与稳定。
军事专家张军社对《环球时报》表示，尽管法国是美国以外唯一拥有核动力航母的国家，但其在印太地区的实力有限。他还警告，“亚太地区的国家和人民都不希望外部势力在该地区加强军事存在，挑拨离间、加剧地区紧张局势。”
责编：安克 网编：何足
© 美联社图片
中共一向对内吹嘘说，独立自主不受任何外国的影响。其实他们一贯都很重视外部关系对自身事务的影响。这次美国的选举再一次证明了这点。而且因为中共现在正面临内忧外患，重视的程度就更加明显。
解决中国面临的严重经济衰退，中共准备放出几万亿人民币的刺激措施。时间就选在美国大选结束之后。一方面困难很紧迫，一方面美国大选结果不明朗，各种所谓的民意调查说不清楚。所以就选在了选举结束之后的几天，等着看人家结果的意图太明显了。
中共当然不希望特朗普当选。可是西方政治家的动作却又暗示着特朗普很可能当选。中共自己的专家们也搞不定，猜不出。怎么办？只好等，可也不能等太长时间，形势不等人呀。于是也就顾不得脸面了。
话说中共最不喜欢的特朗普总统上台，还带着一大帮受到中共制裁的政治家上台，对中共可以说是最坏的消息了。但是没办法，既不能像对待中国人一样采取断然措施，也不能公开干扰人家的选举。只能乖乖地等。脸面在生死存亡面前可能不那么重要。
具体细节可能要等到新政府上台决定人事安排之后才能断定。但是大趋势已经比较明显了：基本就是完成特朗普上一个任期内的方针政策：贸易战。按特朗普自己的说法，上一次由于官僚机构的阻力太大，没有能真正实现执政意图。其实还包括他自己政治素人没经验，导致官僚机构有能力阻碍其实现政治意图。
经过四年的思考和酝酿，目标更明确了，人员更齐整了。下手可能会比上一次更狠，幅度可能会比上一次更大。虽然民主政治最关注的是国内经济，但在美国这种特殊情况下，对中国的贸易问题恰恰是导致国内问题的重要原因。特朗普的政府如果不专注这个主要原因，他的其它政策都会打折扣，或者难以推进。
所以无论哪个党执政，都必须从解决对华贸易问题入手，从而解决很多国内问题。区别只不过是特朗普政府下手可能更强硬，措施可能更具体，漏洞可能更少，效果可能更明显。从他的以强硬派为主的政府构成来看，情况大致就是这样。蠢物专家们的臆测和幻想，都不靠谱。
中国的专家学者们设计的拯救危机的方案，就是拯救股市，拯救房市，而不是拯救消费。这个方案以再多的钱也拯救不了现在的中国经济。因为现在中国的经济是消费短缺型的经济，不增加消费，就不可能救得了经济。但为什么会错得这么离谱还坚定不移呢？少数人的政治是决策的原因。
不解决政治体制改革或者革命，经济也走不出死胡同。在这个问题上，今年的诺贝尔经济学奖的三位得奖人的理论，和我们多年来的观点一致。政治体制以至于社会体制，是经济发展最重要的条件。没有一个惠及所有人民的经济体制，经济就不可能会有长期的发展。没有一个汇集大多数人的政治体制，少数人获利的经济不可能有良好的发展。
很多学者也提出了很多解决消费不足的方案，但是没有得到采纳。原因正是在政治决策层面上，不符合少数人专制政治的口味和利益。因此不可能实施。
中国的政治经济和社会发展都已经走到了十字路口。是走向崩溃还是走向可持续的发展，关键就在政治民主化的实现。当然，政治革命或者彻底的改革，都是一件难上加难的事情，需要全国各界的共同努力和牺牲。
（文章只代表特约评论员个人的立场和观点）
© 美联社图片
At an event in Abidjan in late October, Alexandre Quest Bede noticed someone staring at him. Then the stranger walked up to him with a T-shirt and asked for an autograph.
“He pointed at me excitedly and said: ‘You’re Monsieur Gnamakou, I know you from Instagram!’” recalls Bede at the poolside bar of Bissa, a boutique hotel in the upmarket Deux Plateaux neighbourhood on the eve of Abidjan cocktail week.
Gnamakoudji, often shortened to gnamakou, is a ginger juice and a beloved staple in francophone Africa, including Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory Coast.
For Bede, a doctor turned mixologist, gnamakou is a big go-to ingredient for cocktails and mocktails, highlighting the region’s many unheralded flavours. That playfulness with ingredients is on display at the second edition of Abidjan cocktail week, which runs from 31 October to 10 November.
Abidjan’s first cocktail week was held last year after six weeks of planning by Bede and his business partner, Yasmine “Afrofoodie” Fofana, a blogger and the founder of the Abidjan restaurant week.
The duo’s latest launch was a great opportunity to plug a gap. The cocktail week concept, already popular in Europe and North America, had been embraced by only a few African countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa. The festival is also the latest in a series of concerted efforts to encourage alcohol-loving Africans to return to their roots.
Across west and central Africa, communal drinking remains an integral part of commemorations of life and death, from funeral arrangements to evening pleasures at maquis and chop bars. But due in part to colonial-era stigmatisation and bans, local gins and other alcoholic drinks have long been seen as unsafe for consumption, inferior, and in the era of social media, not Instagram-worthy.
“There’s no reason why we should continue using a foreign language to speak to our ancestors,” says Bede, while holding a bottle of Aphro, a made-in-Ghana premium palm spirit.
The efforts to undo negative perceptions about homemade drinks in the region have begun to yield fruit. In Nigeria and Ghana, entrepreneurs Lola Pedro and Amma Mensah have entered the drinks industry with unique offerings: Pedro’s distilled palm spirit and the sugarcane rum brand Reign respectively.
In the former Ivorian capital of Grand-Bassam, about 21 miles east of Abidjan, an Ivorian-American couple’s home has become a microdistillery for the Vinqueur drinks range, which includes non-alcoholic syrups made from baobab and pineapple extracts, alongside vodka, gin, rum and wines made from mandarins and ginger.
“Yasmine and I, we don’t care what flavour is in the glass; we should just have Africa in the glass,” says Bede, who wants more Africans to see food and drink as soft power. “We’re not present on the global stage because we’re not enhancing our own techniques, not putting our own ingredients, not telling our own stories, simple as that. Francophone Africa is the last on the path, so we’re pushing super hard for that.”
For the second edition of Abidjan cocktail week, visitors are again choosing from curated menus of drinks fused with brands such as Aphro and Reign, alongside local elements.
This year, premium ticket holders also attended masterclasses in bartending. Bartenders from the Accra Bar Show festival, including Kojo Aidoo, the head of the Bartenders Guild Ghana, were also present to show solidarity, and to make drinks.
The goal, say the organisers of cocktail week, is to keep a fixed date every year so tourists can plan holidays around it. Its audience seem satisfied – and entertained.
One of them is Ademilade Afolabi, an Abidjan-based tech executive who loved the spirit of regional harmony at a session she attended. “Abidjan feels like African Union vibes … the barmen are from Ghana. I’m Nigerian dancing with this Cameroonian babe, and the song is Wizkid’s [a Nigerian singer].”
Afolabi adds: “There’s this whole ‘Africa to the world’ movement going on in terms of Afrobeats and fashion, so why not also alcohol? Most alcohol consumed [here], whether in fancy or less fancy places, is imported. If we start placing importance on locally made alcohol, it makes the market move from being importers to exporters.”
Besides a few sponsorship deals, participation fees from bars and ticket sales, Abidjan cocktail week is largely financed by its cofounders, who see the event as a labour of love. And they are pressing on regardless of any challenges, keen to build a legacy.
Fofana, who was born in Abidjan to a Malian-Senegalese father and Guinean mother, says: “It’s not what pays the bills … but the main thing for me with our events is to put my country [Ivory Coast] on the map as far as local ingredients and local talents are concerned. Our goal is [for people to] come and see what Africa also has to offer.”
去年记者节，我在广西都安出差，在天窗地下河爬上爬下，也观察当地瑶族人的生活，虽然稿子流产，但我在采访上竭尽全力，享受着纯粹的痛苦和快乐。
今年记者节，我在为大厂写软文，想想觉得讽刺和挫败，从2018年入行实习至今，我写过4篇软文，两篇是待业期间，最近这是第5篇，都是迫于生计。
2022年，我在上一家特稿媒体工作，见证了它在审查压力下的衰落，变化是从上海疫情开始的，然后是我和同事的几篇长报道未能发出，采访对象时不时来问什么时候发稿，我们只能如实相告，暗自愧疚。后来，社会类选题再无空间。
疫情三年，所有人都被时代浪潮裹挟，很多特稿团队解散，调查类媒体步步后撤，从某个时刻开始，常规报道变成了敏感新闻，404报道被视为行业勋章，做敏感新闻变成了一小部分媒体的“特权”，它们被视作“勇敢者”，有尺度的稿子每次一发出，就会引起行业注目。
另一面，同行在两家大媒体遭受的不公和pua经常传入耳朵，渐渐地，我对这种“勇敢”叙事从羡慕到产生怀疑，这样畸形的行业环境，如何能长久。
2023年初，离开上家媒体后，政治性抑郁困扰了我很久，我把不能发的稿子捡起来继续做，因为不想只做电话新闻，我自费出差，坐绿皮火车去了武汉、杭州和上海，见到了律师和受害者，绿皮火车上很难入睡，但我觉得很踏实。
去年，媒体仍能介入一些公共事件，至少能得知消息并出现在现场，比如4月份北京长峰医院大火，7月份京津冀暴雨，每次发生大事件，我都因不能参与而坐立不安，即使手里有在写的稿子也无法下笔。
涿州暴雨时，我又自费去了一趟现场，回来后决定不想再缺席公共大事件，不想只坐在家里自怨自艾，恰好在去年9月，我得到了现在的工作，我觉得自己幸运，因为很多有能力有热情的记者遇不到一个好时机。
这一年来，我写了九篇报道，一类是突发热点和案件，一类是静态长报道，这是我入行以来受到的两种职业训练，调查报道和特稿，在业务讨论时，我时常听到关于两种类型报道的对立，但我的经验是两种思路相辅相成。我常常站在中间地带，用做调查的方式做特稿，寻找逻辑和证据链，也用做特稿的方式调查案子，在里面看到人性和背后的议题。
长报道要依靠大量采访，1月份哈尔滨的题，我每天在外面跑，跟实习同事一起在两周内采访了50多个人，后来大理的诈骗案，我采访了30多个人，跑了大理、永平县的村子、广州台山、浙江宁波，现在看来这些都是很奢侈的出差，虽然两篇报道最终流量不高，但我今天重读后，仍觉得当时做得不错，不考虑投入精力和回报的采访，让报道内容非常扎实，也提供了一些新鲜的视角。
3月，我跟实习同事一起做了规培生自杀的报道，期间经历了我妈妈的肺结节手术，在医院陪护之余，我跟被家暴的凉山女性线上取得联系。手术结束后，是燕郊爆炸的第二天，我去了一趟现场，路上收到了禁令。后来家暴事件因为警方通报影响而流产，好在后来有媒体发出了报道。
4月份，我开始操作大理诈骗案的选题，中间临时去湖南长沙，做了农村女性被性侵的报道，那是一个讨论度比较高的事件，但报道背后，我体会更深的是弱势的受害家庭的困扰，他们要借助媒体的力量与官方抗衡，代价是要把自己的隐私和痛苦展示给大众，也因此遭受当地警方的压力和诸多舆论压力，每次受害者的女儿找来要求删稿，我都不能答应，只能说一句，我理解你们有多难。
5月，大理诈骗案的受害者们很迫切，这几年我很少再感受到采访对象那么需要记者，需要被倾听，这是我在此案中投入很多精力的原因，30多名采访对象涵盖了不同阶层不同处境的受害者，我还去大理跟调查经济犯罪的警察聊了聊，那次偶然的对话，是我第一次把警察作为个体，而不是一个符号去看待。
我自认为这一年对所有选题都尽力，没有懈怠任何一个现场和任何一场采访。因为我知道时间不多了，空间和尺度不等人，我和所有同行都在与那头巨象赛跑，在它沉重的四蹄间不断穿梭闪避。我们也都明白，终有一天象蹄会毫不留情地落下，无人能够幸免。
但自认为的努力能抵达的东西还是太少。我错过了一些有价值的选题，像是苏州校车事件和冷藏货车女工死亡事件，后来，胡友平成为了最安全的公约数，但我一直对罪犯视角的报道念念不忘。我也很想参与灾难报道——京津冀暴雨一周年重建，积石山地震重建，汛期暴雨，结果一个现场都没能去成。
下半年，媒体能介入的公共性事件越来越少，灾难报道无法做，女性议题也很难碰，深圳杀日本人学校孩子事件、上海松江无差别杀人事件、北京中关村第三小学学生被伤事件，更是想都不用想。
一边是公共性议题被无限度地压制讨论，一边是舆论场对个体无限度的审判。比如胖猫、姜萍和沙白的事件。始终认为媒体介入个人事件要审慎，为什么要做、以什么样的方式非常重要，需要一再站在外部视角去审视和校正，不然只是被裹挟在这场狂欢里，成为其传播的工具，而忘掉媒
体应该有的判断和准则。
与此同时，机构内部因为流量焦虑，评价标准一变再变，记者到底该负责什么越来越模糊——是专业主义，稿子质量，是对采访对象和大众传播的责任，还是kpi流量，抑或是钱和名，媒体领导通常既要又要。前两天听一位调查记者在播客中说，“新闻就不应该考虑流量”，这听上去是一句非常奢侈和理想主义的话，但也是作为记者真正的心声。
今年我参与和围观很多交流，发现一个家庭、一个编辑部和一个行业，大家都很难在一个讨论轨道上，大多数是自说自话，在各自的话语体系、困境和价值观里越走越远，无法交汇，如果说以前分裂常常存在于代际和阶层之间，疫情之后，分裂无处不在，政治立场的，性别议题的，医学
观点的……只是相差几岁处境就大不相同。
积极的层面当然觉得多元的观点很好，消极的层面是如果行业自身的对话和某种程度的共识都难以达成，媒体如何再有促进不同群体对话的可能。尤其对于特稿来说，最后呈现的其实是某种意识形态和价值观。
受到审查和保守化舆论的影响，原来引导行业的那套标准越来越被抛弃掉，如何做记者，真的变成了我越来越困惑的问题，除了坚持自己的选题判断，我不知道还能怎么办。
两周前，为了抵消这种无力感，我自费跑了一个无人关注的新闻现场——湖南衡阳9岁孩子坠井，当时站在一堆废墟和枯井旁，我想，我在这里，我见证这一切，这太重要了。孩子头七前，家属告诉我，跟政府的赔偿谈判还未协商好，施工单位哭穷，派出所无法强制执行，孩子的遗体仍躺在冷冰冰的殡仪馆里，没有下葬。
在选题推进很艰难时，我是依靠跟合作者的互相扶持，才坚持下来。今年我跟两位非常优秀的实习记者合作过，也非常希望ta们能继续留在这行，但又不敢把这种期待宣之于口，因为这个行业无法提供稳定的职位、足够的薪酬和实现理想的机会。
在经济下行和就业艰难的环境，生存似乎成了首要任务，我如何堂而皇之地谈理想。
疫情之后，我持续跟政治性抑郁和创伤做斗争，除了要在理想和现实之间抉择，我更多时间是在生存和毁灭之间做选择，最近安慰自己的借口是，特朗普都连任了，还有什么事情是不能面对的?
同时我也提醒自己，作为疫情幸存者，我要活下来，活到几位老男人死去，活到他们这一代人死去，即使这世界不会变，我也想看看会发生什么。
活得比他们久，是我这代人为数不多的筹码。昨天中午吃饭时，我听到J老师在播客里说谈到表妹的困境——想做一些自认为对的事情，但是在所处的环境里像个异类，J老师鼓励她，“你要坚持你自己的想法，别人怎么登山是别人的事情，我们的山我们自己登就行了，所以你一定要相信自己。
听到她用熟悉的温和的声音，说出这番话，我突然哭得停不下来。今天凌晨，我在播客评论区留言，“最近很迷茫很困惑，不知道身处这行还能做点什么，在种种外部压力下，想再写和表达那些有价值的议题非常艰难，但还是要试试，还是要坚持，不能下牌桌。”
没想到，她今天回复了我一长段文字——
“这种困惑会一直伴随着这个行业，即便现在，我依然每天都在想要不要继续做，还能做些什么。如果我能给一些建议，那就是这个行业与经验高度相关，你做得久，虽然面临的困难越来越多，但你应对困难的能力也会增强，在辗转腾挪之中找到一
点做事的空隙。
但我还想再说一句，这个工作与其他工作没有什么不同，应自由进出，不要赋予它过多的光环。你做这份工作时，不负于工作，离开的时候，工作也不负于你。你自己是最重要的，不论是你自己的处境、身心健康，还是想法的改变，都是重要的。新闻以人为本，新闻人也应以人为本。”
我会继续写，为了我自己、向我伸出手的人和我所相信的东西而写，我不能辜负我的职业训练，不能辜负文字，这是我对当下的自己唯一的要求。
10月23日凌晨12点左右，去衡阳县殡仪馆寻找坠井孩子家属时，一抬头，满天都是星星，我从来没看过那么亮的星星，共享给所有还在路上的朋友们，面对更大的权力，我们始终同行，殊途同归。
© Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times
© Valda Kalnina/EPA, via Shutterstock
© Kevin Mazur/Getty Images
© Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via Shutterstock
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© Oleksandr Gimanov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
英国消费者保护组织“Which?”最近发布了一份调查报告，披露一些中国品牌的智能空气炸锅可能会收集用户的敏感信息，并上传至中国服务器，包括TikTok等平台。这一报告在国际社会引发了广泛关注，尤其是在数据隐私问题日益受到重视的背景之下。
据英国多家媒体报道，“Which?” 在一份调查报告中提到，中国智能家电爱国者之星（Aigostar）和小米的空气炸锅App在安装过程中，要求用户授权，其中包括位置追踪和通话录音等权限。调查发现，这些权限需求缺乏明确的解释，且收集的数据可能上传至第三方服务器。“Which?” 认为，这种数据收集超出了产品正常功能需求，构成“过度监控”的行为。小米的智能家居管理应用还与Facebook、TikTok等广告平台的追踪器连接，甚至在某些地区可能连接腾讯的追踪器。
江苏智能手机用户田先生表达了他的担忧，他本周五（8日）对自由亚洲电台说，智能设备这样做是侵犯个人隐私的行为：“小米、华为手机后台都是有监控的。你用手机应用程序，打电话都被监控。他们侵犯了客户的隐私。”
智能家电产品监视用户常态化
广东的家电销售员陈先生透露了中国智能家电的隐私问题，陈先生认为，这种现象或许是为了收集海外信息。他对本台说：“中国的电器，现在发展到所有互联网家电安装监听系统, 我认为是搜集国外情报的一种方式。”
中国国内手机用户陆勇在接受本台采访时表示，类似的隐私侵犯行为在中国是常见现象，甚至已经成为常态：“比如我们随便说一句什么话，比如我今天头疼，拼多多（应用程序）关于头疼的产品全发给你了。无论你说什么话，手机都能够检测到，并推送一些东西给你，这是后台监控嘛。”
小米公司对此回应称，用户隐私是其核心价值，所有数据均符合英国数据保护法，且智能空气炸锅并无录音功能。对于腾讯服务的使用，小米表示其仅在中国启用。
英国《卫报》和《每日邮报》等媒体本周报道，这类中国制造的智能家电产品在隐私权限上的操作不够透明，用户的个人信息可能在无知情的情况下被收集并分享给第三方。这一报告引起了英国政府的关注，信息专员办公室（ICO）计划在2025年春季推出新的数据保护条例，要求所有智能设备制造商在收集用户数据时必须告知明确目的，该规则还将适用于海外公司。
英国将于2025年推出限制措施
此外，出于安全隐患的考量，包括美国、韩国在内的多个国家已对中国制造的监控设备采取限制措施。例如，韩国曾因使用中国产摄像头而导致私人住宅视频泄露，美国的政府设施也已开始拆除或替换相关设备，以降低安全风险。
IT行业人士苗笠指出，安卓系统的应用权限需求日益复杂，智能家居应用普遍涉及数据收集。他对本台说，安卓虽然提供权限管理，但由于其开源特性，是否会被绕过依然是个难以监管的问题：“包括智能家具应用程序都会搜集大数据。安卓10以上系统（加入应用程序）应该都必须经过授权，比如‘仅此一次’还是‘启动后都允许’，安卓会有授权选项。但是，安卓不是封闭型系统，是否可以绕过权限，它具体怎么实现的，我不太清楚。”
英国即将出台的隐私新规意味着，未来智能产品的隐私问题将面临更严格的审查。
责编：许书婷、梒青 网编：瑞哲
© 法新社图片
国务院总理李强出席在昆明举行的大湄公河次区域经济合作第八次领导人会议，喊出“亲如一家命运共同体”，要积极深化“软硬联通”建设。分析认为中国除了巩固“后花园”关系外，也有意借中低阶产业链转移逃避制裁。
新华社报道，李强在会议中表示，大湄公河次区域经济合作机制成立30多年来，成为双方合作重要平台。他强调“当前世界进入新的动荡变革期，中国和湄公河国家是亲如一家的命运共同体，更要紧密团结协作。”在共同发展的道路上坚定携手前行，为地区和世界的和平安宁、发展繁荣作出积极贡献。
除了深入推进公路、铁路、港口等基础设施“硬联通”外，李强指出，要积极推动区域电网规划建设和升级改造，深化新能源电池、汽车和光伏等产业合作，打造更多跨境合作示范区，加快区域经济一体化进程。
中国透过大湄公河五国掩护 企图规避制裁
时事评论人士郑旭光接受本台访问时表示，大湄公河五国（柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、泰国、越南）是中国当前最具经济意义的命运共同体，中国和阿盟、非盟、中亚五国是命运共同体，但湄公河五国不仅在地缘上是邻国，经济发展比中亚发达更具潜力。
“中国一方面是着眼于产业链转移的承接，另一方面则是希望能够通过这些国家缓解美国制裁对中国的影响。自从美国制裁后，许多中国产品通过越南贴牌出口以回避制裁。这种产业链的灰色经济，使得中国的实际经济增长未被全面掌握，外界低估了其规模，”他补充说。
郑旭光举例，前几年广东等地存在大量地下经济活动，例如牵涉到侵犯知识产权的所谓的A货生产，这些非法或半合法的经济活动涉及现金交易和包税制度，使得真实的产量和贸易量难以准确估算。这种与东南亚合作模式深具成效。“李强作为中国总理积极推动此一战略，打造更完善的国家保障和政治框架，支持中低端产能转移至东南亚地区，协助中国产业在美国贸易制裁下寻求生存空间，成为最好的掩护。”
近期传出中国透过买家绕过禁令，从新加坡获取先进制程AI芯片，郑旭光说，这与冷战时期东芝违反禁运，出售高阶工具机给苏联的情况相似。“这也说明中国是世界工厂，深度嵌入全球产业链，使美国的制裁措施更加棘手。”
据中国海关总署7日公布数据显示，前10个月，东盟是中国第一大贸易伙伴，贸易增长8.8%，占中国外贸总值的15.7%。其中，对东盟出口增长12.5%；自东盟进口增长3.8%；对东盟贸易顺差1.05万亿元，扩大38.2%。
中国与五国友好两面刃
资深财经评论人士王剑对本台表示，中国最重要的还是需要把经济实力对外辐射，因此积极推动与东南亚的“硬联通”，例如修建铁路和运河等基础设施，以实现更紧密的经济联系，试图将东南亚打造为自身的“后花园”。
王剑：“这种联通带来的影响也有其两面性。由于美国试图将东南亚发展成第二生产基地，替代中国世界工厂的角色，这意味着中国与东南亚的产业供应链联通，也可能会助长部分产业外移至东南亚，进一步削弱中国在全球供应链中的地位。”
越南与中国冲突不断 积极拉美国平衡
另一方面，今年9月越共中央总书记苏林上任后，随即8月18至20日访问中国，与中国领导人习近平会面。李强在上个月12日出访越南，强调双方要坚持友好协商，妥善处理分歧。今年9月底，越南10名渔民在南海西沙群岛附近海域捕鱼时，被中国船只包夹及遭约40名人员持铁棍攻击致多人重伤。
越南与中国维持友好关系的同时，也积极发展美越关系。中央社指出，在特朗普当选后，越共中央总书记苏林、国家主席梁强和总理范明正向特朗普发出贺电，并重申越南视美国为重要的战略伙伴。
贺电指出，越南高层领导人相信，在两国各时期领导人过去近30年所打造的稳固基础上，以及特朗普在第一任期和新任期的强力支持下，越美全面战略伙伴关系将持续深化、有效、可持续发展，这是为了两国人民的利益与期望，也是为了区域与世界的和平、稳定、合作与发展。
王剑分析，中国在经济、政治、文化、地缘政治及军事等多方面对湄公河五国有强大影响力，使得这些国家在各个层面都需维持与中国的友好关系。若中国愿意付出经济利益，这些国家也倾向支持中国的主张。这五国本属于中国的势力范围，“然而，美中之间在东南亚地区的竞争持续升级，双方提升对合作伙伴的定位。美国将双边的关系提高到战略合作伙伴，中国积极提升到生命共同体，努力超越美关系的层级。”
责编：许书婷、安克 网编：瑞哲
© （Handout / MYANMAR MILITARY INFORMATION TEAM / AFP ）
讲述习仲勋成长故事的电视剧《西北岁月》近日在中国大陆开播。因为中国大陆经济形势下滑，外界传闻习近平受到颇多压力，此时上映这部影片是否另有深意？中共的西北历史十分敏感，这部影片将如何处理刘志丹、高岗等敏感人物？
中国首部以中共元老、国家主席习近平之父习仲勋作为主角的电视剧《西北岁月》于11月5日晚在中央电视台黄金档播出，同步在腾讯视频、芒果TV、爱奇艺网络平台上线。
据公开报道，这部39集的历史题材剧作演员阵容雄厚，由青年演员吴磊饰演青年习仲勋，由中国政协委员靳东饰演成年习仲勋，当红女星倪妮饰演习仲勋妻子、习近平母亲齐心。
在预告片中，靳东扮演的习仲勋在演讲中说：“什么是党性呢？实事求是就是最大的党性”，获得一片欢呼，片中还出现已故中共领导人毛泽东为习仲勋题词“党的利益在第一位”的画面。
中共二十届三中全会后，颇多传闻指习近平在中共高层中受到压力和指责，临近年底中国经济无望达标，此剧在此时上映，引发联想。
习远平料有参与
习仲勋出生于1913年10月15日，青年时代加入中国共产党，中共陕甘边区根据地主要创建者和领导者之一。1949年中共执政后，担任过国务院副总理、中共政治局委员、全国人大副委员长等职，属于副国级领导人。
旅美时评人陈破空对自由亚洲分析说：“按照级别来算，只有开国元老七个人毛刘朱周陈林邓能拍这种电视剧，习仲勋只做过副总理，这个级别还没有先例，的确是一个破格。”但他认为，电视剧有很长的制作周期，这部剧应该并非为当下的时间点策划的，也不应该过多解读。
上一次破格纪念习仲勋还是2013年。据报道，为习仲勋百岁诞辰，中国地方一些省市从九月下旬起就纷纷举行活动，尤其是习仲勋曾工作过的广东陕西两地；中央电视台制作播放了六集纪念片；中共党史出版社出版了《习仲勋文集》、《习仲勋纪念文集》和《习仲勋画册》。习仲勋的小儿子习远平出席了广东省委的座谈会，会上将习仲勋是广东改革开放的“奠基人之一”，“为中国特色”社会主义道路的确立做出了重要贡献；习近平则以家属身份出席了在人民大会堂举办的北京座谈会。
新加坡《联合早报》评论说，习仲勋生前是中共党内著名的改革派人士，在推动经济改革的过程中起到了重要作用。中国官方隆重纪念习仲勋百年诞辰，有利于消减外界对官方可能“向左转”的疑虑。
但随后，习仲勋在陕西富平的墓地于2015年被扩建成为陵园，占地扩大，并被中宣部命名为全国爱国主义教育示范基地，引起了“父凭子贵”议论。习近平并未延续其父之前亲民、开放的领导人形象，逐渐背离了习仲勋的民间符号。
对此，陈破空分析认为：“习近平的主要思想脉络来自于他母亲，他母亲的教导就是要党性。文革时打倒习仲勋，他母亲齐心也喊打倒习仲勋。习近平13岁被戴高帽子批斗，他母亲也在台下喊打倒习近平，习近平逃回家要一口水喝，要一口饭吃。他母亲不仅不给，还冒着大雨去告密。所以他的母亲给了最他深刻的影响，就是要党性，不要人性。”
不过，明镜集团创始人何频认为，中共元老的后代拍摄一部家长的电视剧，是很多红二代的做法，不足为奇。他对自由亚洲表示，“红二代这些人，他们一个主要工作就是退休之后给父母拍一些电视剧或者电影，有的由当地政府支持，有的是公司支持，有的是自己掏一部分钱，这是个普遍的现象。”
他还表示，习仲勋虽然官职最高是副国级，但在中共党内地位并不低，主要由于文革前被打倒，影响了后来的任用。“他的资历是并不浅的，加上习近平是总书记、国家主席，所以可能拍马屁的人更多，但是拍这么一个片子本身不是一个特别有意味的事情。”
但据何频判断，此剧的定稿习远平应有参与。“习远平参与几乎是可以肯定的。习远平作为习家现在最重要的公关人物，因为他没有官职，很多事情都是他出面，所以就比较方便一点。我认为习远平估计是幕后的一个主要策华者。习家可能一定程度上都参与。但是这也是常规，中央文献办公室、研究院这些机构都会参与。”
国家广电总局对此剧的描述为：《西北岁月》从项目策划、剧本创作至拍摄完成历时六年，是“中宣部、广电总局指导创作的重大革命题材电视剧”，“是中宣部2024年度文化产业发展专项资金支持项目”。
不过，根据中国官方公开数据，《西北岁月》由陕西文化产业（影视）投资有限公司（下称陕西文化）报备，于2023年7月获得陕西省级管理部门同意备案，2023年8月开始拍摄。
陕西文化产业（影视）投资公司的董事长孙昌博是陕西省政协委员，同时兼任陕西文投集团副总经理，其任命经过中共陕西省委组织部公示。
陕西文投也是投资拍摄《西北岁月》的陕西文化的大股东，根据企业注册资料，其背后是中共陕西省委宣传部。
热度成谜
与外媒热议不同，这部电视剧在中国国内并未获得太多流量和热度。
检索中国社媒平台，以“西北岁月”为关键词的话题，在抖音上最高仅有1800余万次播放，无缘抖音热榜；在微博上最高仅有7800万浏览，原创帖数仅4800余条，只在热搜榜第33位短暂上榜了30分钟。在中国影视剧评分平台豆瓣，这部剧显示“因评分人数不足”暂无评分状态。
微博前审核员刘力朋对自由亚洲说，“豆瓣应该是设置了禁止评分。”他分析说，这部影视剧虽然在央视黄金时段上映，但看起来并未组织集体宣发。他说，“如果是重磅推出，三大家（央视、人民日报、新华社）会一起发，那么平台不用怎么推，自然就能上热搜。现在这种情况，就是官方没怎么推，而且习仲勋、习近平这些词都是最高级的敏感词，一般人发也发不出来，所以就没有什么热度，说明上面可能也不想把它推太热。”
或为高岗“软平反”
这部电视剧的时间跨度是从1927年到1952年，避开了习仲勋在1962年即被打倒及16年才平反的阶段，但同时也避开了1980年代后习仲勋在东南沿海改革开放的岁月。
不过，中共在西北的早期历史涉及到刘志丹、高岗等未被平反的早期党内高层人物，也有诸多敏感之处。习仲勋在1962年被打倒也是因为支持出版小说《刘志丹》被毛泽东定性为“用小说反党”。
对此，陈破空分析说：“今天又捧习仲勋，暗示他开创西北有功，是后来中国起死回生的一个宝地或者是根据地，应该有暗示他父亲功劳的意思。”
中国人民大学前社会学教授周孝正对自由亚洲分析说：“中国共产党从这1921年建党以后就开始搞分裂，1931年在江西瑞金成立了中华苏埃共和国，在福建也分了一块，广东也分裂了一块，陕北也分了一块，陕北就是习仲勋和刘志丹，他们都是一伙的，后来刘志丹就被内部的人给打死了，所以说他现在想讲西北的历史，那绝对是一个内斗的历史，而且非常厉害啊，他敢说真话吗？要我说就是越描越黑。”
周孝正还提到，他早年在人民出版社的《习仲勋传》中看到一个重要情节：习仲勋在陕北高小学校的教导主任叫徐海，习仲勋对其有意见，就和几个同学往教师灶下毒，想把徐海毒死。“你对教导主任有意见，你给教师灶下毒，那可不只是教导主任一个人吃，这叫什么？叫恐怖主义。当时他的年龄大概是十四五岁。这个他敢写吗？”
何频则认为，习仲勋当年是作为高岗、刘志丹的主要“战友”受到波及，这部剧或有“软平反”的意思。
早在2014年，习远平就曾在纪念陕甘边区苏维埃政府成立八十周年的发言中提到：“我父亲生前十分怀念刘志丹伯伯，多次写文章纪念这位革命的引路人。他的优秀品格给我父亲留下了特别深刻的印象。在志丹伯伯牺牲后的漫长岁月里，我父亲和志丹伯伯一家人始终保持着十分亲密的关系，这种友谊经受了岁月和风雨的考验，历久弥坚。”习远平在文中还提到，曾与妻子一同看望刘志丹的女儿刘力贞。不过，刘力贞已于2014年年底去世。
何频说，“习家和这两个家族关系非常好。高刚的夫人李立群当时在教育部的高教司工作，她在习近平读清华大学上起了帮助性的作用。高岗的孩子和习家的孩子关系都非常好，所以这个剧里面有一部分实际上是为高岗进行‘软平反’的意思。”
据BBC报道，2013年纪念习仲勋百年诞辰时，曾有中国网民在微博留言，“奇怪，在习主席上台之前怎么就没人大张旗鼓的纪念习老先生呢？”
11年后，以习仲勋为主角的《西北岁月》开播当日，是一众演员集体跟帖评论：“心怀家国，砥砺前行，以信仰为帆冲破险阻，以坚韧之志铸就辉煌。”
责编 李亚千 网编：瑞哲
© 维基百科/公有领域
© Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
© Bing Guan/Reuters
Getty ImagesAt least one thing was taken for granted before voting day - women across the US were going to turn out for Kamala Harris.
Just as months of relentless polling showed Harris in a virtual tie with Donald Trump, many of those same surveys told the story of a yawning gender gap.
It was a strategy Harris’s team was betting on, hoping that an over-performance among women could make up for losses elsewhere.
It didn’t happen.
Across the country, the majority of women did cast their ballots for Harris, but not by the historic margins she needed. Instead, if early exit polls bear out, Harris’s advantage among women overall - around 10 points - actually fell four points short of Joe Biden’s in 2020.
Democrats suffered a 10 point drop among Latino women, while failing to move the needle among non-college educated women at all, who again went for Trump 63-35, preliminary data suggests.
The shortfall was not for lack of trying.
Throughout her 15-week campaign, much of Harris’s messaging was aimed directly at women, most obviously with her emphasis on abortion.
On the trail, Harris made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her pitch. She repeatedly reminded voters that Trump had once bragged about his role in overturning Roe v Wade - a ruling that ended the nationwide right to an abortion.
“I will fight to restore what Donald Trump and his hand-selected Supreme Court justice took away from the women of America,” Harris said at her closing address in DC last week.
Her most powerful advertisements featured women who had suffered under state abortion bans - deemed “Trump abortion bans” by Harris - including those who said they were denied care for miscarriages.
The strategy, it seemed, was to harness the same enthusiasm for abortion access that drove Democrats’ unexpected success in the 2022 midterms.
Abortion rights remain broadly popular - this Gallup poll in May suggested only one in 10 Americans thought it should be banned.
And even these election results seemed to underline that. Eight out of the 10 states where abortion was on the ballot voted in favour of abortion rights.
But that support did not translate into support for Harris.
Getty ImagesAbortion did matter to women, it just didn’t matter enough, said Evan Ross Smith, a pollster and campaign consultant.
“Voters - particularly the women - who feel strongest about abortion are already voting for Democrats,” he said. But Democrats were unable to raise the salience of abortion for women who didn’t yet see it as a pressing issue.
“The abortion argument did not penetrate at all with non-college educated women, did not move them an inch. And they lost ground with Latinos,” Mr Smith said.
For many, the decisive issue proved to be the economy.
In pre-election surveys and preliminary exit data, inflation and affordability continued to top lists of voters' concerns. And for these voters, Trump was the overwhelming favourite.
Jennifer Varvar, 51, an independent from Grand Junction, Colorado said she had not even considered a vote for Harris because of the financial stress she faced over the past four years.
“For me and my family, we’re in a worse position now than we ever have been financially. It’s a struggle. I have three boys to put food on the table for,” she said. Things had been better under Trump, she said, and that’s why she voted for him.
Getty ImagesBut if gender didn't divide the electorate in the way some expected, it still played a part in the Harris defeat, say some analysts.
There have been many explanations offered for Trump’s resounding victory but for some there is one thing that stands out.
“I do think that the country is still sexist and is not ready for a woman president,” said Patti Solis Doyle, who managed Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, to Politico.
Unlike Clinton, who explicitly leaned into her gender and the history-making potential of her campaign, Harris was noticeably reluctant to do the same.
There is a widespread belief that the country is more ready for a woman president now than when Clinton ran a second time in 2016. But it's still an open question.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in October suggested 15% of those surveyed would not be able to vote for a female president.
And Donald Trump, who doubled down on masculinity in this election, may have played a part in exploiting that.
“He framed being president as being a tough guy in a dangerous world… he framed that as the job description," said Mr Smith.
“And that’s one of the hardest possible job descriptions for a woman to successfully meet, in the minds of many Americans.”
ReutersThe UN's Human Rights Office has condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, saying its analysis shows close to 70% of verified victims over a six-month period were women and children.
The agency said the high number was largely due to Israel's use of weapons with wide-area effects in densely populated areas, although some deaths may have been the result of errant projectiles by Palestinian armed groups.
The report said it found "unprecedented" levels of international law violations, raising concerns about "war crimes and other possible atrocity crimes".
Israel has in the past said it targets Hamas and takes steps to mitigate risk to civilians by using precise munitions.
The BBC contacted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment in response to Friday's report.
The UN agency said it verified the details of 8,119 people killed in Gaza from November 2023 to April 2024.
Its analysis found around 44% of verified victims were children and 26% women. The ages most represented among the dead were five to nine-year-olds.
About 80% of victims were killed in residential buildings or similar housing, the agency added.
The report said the data indicates "an apparent indifference to the death of civilians and the impact of the means and methods of warfare".
Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN sees as reliable, has reported a death toll of more than 43,300 people over the past 13 months. Many more bodies are believed to remain under the rubble of bombarded buildings.
The health ministry said it obtained full demographic data for a majority of those killed and reported that children account for one in three of that number.
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said in a statement that "this unprecedented level of killing, and injury of civilians is a direct consequence of the failure to comply with fundamental principles of international humanitarian law".
He cited the laws of distinction, which requires warring parties to distinguish between combatants and civilians, proportionality, which prohibits attacks where harm to civilians outweighs military advantage, and precautions in attacks.
Türk called for a "due reckoning with respect to the allegations of serious violations of international law".
The IDF has previously told the BBC in response to criticism that it "will continue to act, as it always has done, according to international law".
ReutersThe report also said the way the warring parties have conducted the conflict in Gaza has "caused horrific human suffering".
The UN said Palestinian armed groups have waged war from densely-populated areas and indiscriminately used projectiles, likely contributing to the death toll, while the IDF has destroyed civilian infrastructure and "left many of those alive, injured, displaced and starving, without access to adequate water, food or healthcare".
The situation is worst in north Gaza, which aid groups say has been under siege since early October when Israel launched a new ground offensive against Hamas.
The UN said no food aid entered the north during the first two weeks of October.
This prompted the US to issue an ultimatum to Israel to increase aid by 12 November or risk losing some military support.
Jan Egeland, the head of aid organisation Norwegian Refugee Council, told the BBC on Friday that he saw "devastation, despair, beyond belief" on a recent visit to Gaza.
"There is hardly a building that is not damaged. And large areas looked like Stalingrad after the Second World War. You cannot fathom how intense this indiscriminate bombing has been on this trapped population," he said.
"It's evident that it is first and foremost children and women who are paying a price for this senseless war," he added.
Israel launched its current military offensive in Gaza after Hamas' attack on 7 October 2023 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages back to Gaza.
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