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外国投资者投资A股“降门槛”,资本市场开放迎活水

21世纪经济报道 崔文静

有序扩大资本市场制度型开放,提升外资机构投资便利性,是监管一再强调的重点。

日前,商务部、中国证监会、国务院国资委、税务总局、市场监管总局、国家外汇局六部门联合修订发布《外国投资者对上市公司战略投资管理办法》(以下简称《办法》),为外资投资中国提供新便利。

这是《办法》自2005年发布以来的首次修订。《办法》实施近20年来,外国投资者累计战略投资A股上市公司600多家。外国投资者对中国上市公司,尤其是高新技术领域上市公司的投资热情一直较为高涨,投资规模呈逐步增长态势。

与此同时,21世纪经济报道记者了解到,以中小型私募股权投资为代表的一些外国投资者,受限于其对上市公司首次战略投资的持股比例不得低于10%、取得股份三年内不得转让等条件限制,希望投资A股公司又不敢轻易进场。

此番《办法》的修订,则让此类外国投资者的困扰大为减轻。根据新版《办法》,外国投资者以协议转让、要约收购方式对A股上市公司实施战略投资的,持股比例由不低于10%下降至不低于5%;以定向发行方式实施战略投资的,持股比例限制直接取消。

持股锁定期也同步放宽,由不低于3年调整为不低于12个月。

除了调降持股比例和持股锁定期,新版《办法》还从多个方面降低外国投资者投资A股门槛,包括允许外国自然人实施战略投资;放宽外国投资者的资产要求;增加要约收购这一战略投资方式;以定向发行、要约收购方式实施战略投资的,允许以境外非上市公司股份作为支付对价等。

投资者准入门槛全面下调

日前,证监会等六大部门联合修订发布《办法》,于2024年12月2日起正式实施。

2005年,商务部、中国证监会、税务总局、原工商总局、国家外汇局等五部门发布《办法》,为外国投资者战略投资上市公司提供了制度保障。近20年来,超600家上市获得外国投资者入股。

此次修订发布的《办法》,进一步降低投资者准入门槛,为外国投资者投资A股提供了更多可能。

允许外国自然人进行战略投资,放宽外国投资者的资产要求,是准入门槛降低的两大典型体现。在清华大学国家金融研究院院长、金融学讲席教授田轩看来,这也是此次《办法》调整的最为有力之处。

根据田轩分析,政策上允许外国自然人进行战略投资,打破了以往仅限于外国企业或组织进行战略投资的限制,扩展了个人投资者的范围,将吸引更多国际资本,增强我国资本市场的活跃度。同时,也将推动我国资本市场投资理念的变化,提升市场的成熟度和国际化水平。

《办法》还对外国投资者的资产要求进行调整,特别是降低了非控股股东的资产门槛,由境外实有资产总额不低于1亿美元或管理的境外实有资产总额不低于5亿美元,降低至实有资产总额不低于5000万美元或者管理的实有资产总额不低于3亿美元。如此调整将吸引更多中小外国投资者参与到战略投资中来。

允许外国投资者以要约收购方式实施战略投资,是此次《办法》的另一个重大调整。此前,外国投资者收购A股上市公司只能通过定向增发和协议转让。

然而,相较于定向增发和协议转让,要约收购具有独特吸引力。在厦门大学经济学院教授姜富伟看来,一方面,要约收购的公开报价特点有助于提高投资信息透明度;另一方面,要约收购便于投资者更加直接地获取控制权,适合长期战略投资者,有望推动资本市场国际化、高质量发展。

田轩同样认为,要约收购对于外国投资者具有别样吸引力。他提到,相较于定向增发和协议转让,要约收购为外国投资者提供了直接购买A股上市公司股份的机会,能够更快速地实现投资目的,并带来更高的投资回报。而且,要约收购程序公开透明,可以降低信息不对称的影响,市场透明度更高,不易于受大股东影响。

与此同时,此次《办法》修订后,支付手段也得以调整。为吸引外国投资者综合运用现金、股权等多种方式战略投资上市公司,也便利境内上市公司通过跨境换股收购境外资产,同时考虑到定向发行、要约收购已有监管规则保障交易公允,新版《办法》规定,对于以定向发行、要约收购方式实施的战略投资,允许以境外非上市公司股权实施跨境换股。

在田轩看来,允许以境外非上市公司股份作为支付对价,可以降低现金支付的压力,也有助于促进A股上市公司与境外企业的合作。

持股比例、锁定期限制大幅缩短

对于投资者,尤其是中小型私募股权投资者而言,持股比例高低与锁定期长短是影响其投资积极性的一大关键。

“持股比例限制越低、锁定期越短,投资者的资本运作灵活性则会越高,投资意愿也相对更强。”受访人士告诉记者。

新版《办法》即大幅放宽了上述限制。

一方面,过去,外国投资者对上市公司首次战略投资取得的上市公司股份比例被限定在10%以上。如今,分两种情况对待,对于以定向发行方式实施战略投资的,取消比例限制;对于以协议转让、要约收购方式实施战略投资的,最低持股比例下调5个百分点至不低于5%。

另一方面,适当放宽持股锁定期要求,同时坚持战略投资的中长期投资属性,将外国投资者的持股锁定期由不低于3年调整为不低于12个月。

在田轩看来,上述调整力度较大,体现了我国进一步开放资本市场、吸引外资的决心。此次调整将进一步优化外资的投资环境,增强外国投资者对A股上市公司的投资信心,吸引更多不同规模和类型的投资者,并促进外国投资者进行长期投资和价值投资,提升我国资本市场的活力,促进资本市场的多元化发展。

《办法》的修订,将吸引更多外国投资者投资中国,这是受访人士的共识。为了进一步提高外国投资者投资积极性,可以从哪些方面进一步完善?

田轩提到,近年来,外国投资者对A股上市公司的投资热情一直较高,尤其是对于高新技术领域,投资规模一直呈现稳步增长态势。但从整体上来看,这种积极性会因外部环境和政策因素的影响出现阶段性调整,因此需要加强政策持续性、一致性、稳定性,进一步激发外国投资者对中国市场的投资热情。

田轩具体建议道,应优化审批程序,减少审批时间,提高外国投资者投资的便利性;发布详细的政策指南,针对不同类别外国投资者,进行详细的政策解读与指导;进一步加强上市公司信息披露,细化披露要求,规范披露程序,提高资本市场的透明度;建立健全市场监管机制,尤其是完善上市公司治理监管,保护中小投资者的合法权益;为符合条件的外国投资者提供税收优惠,通过财政补贴、贷款贴息等方式,支持外国投资者在中国的投资项目,降低其投资运营成本。

姜富伟同样给出四方面建议:首先,关注外国投资者的投资偏好和需求。积极参考ISSB等国际权威标准,推动环境、社会和治理(ESG)相关规范的制定和实施,提升上市公司在可持续发展方面的表现,以满足欧美资本市场对负责任投资的关注。

其次,进一步优化负面清单,明确外资准入的行业和领域,以减少不必要的投资限制,鼓励外资参与更广泛的市场竞争。

再者,通过共建“一带一路”倡议等国际战略合作框架,加强与外国投资者的战略合作,拓展市场机会,提升外资对中国市场的参与度。

此外,明确发展与安全并重的原则。一方面,可以在加强资金安全审查力度的同时,确保审查程序高效透明,降低投资过程中的政策不确定性,增强外国投资者信心。另一方面,则要注重强化投资者财产权益保护,完善相关法律和监管机制,以增强其对于中国资本市场的信任度。

网络编辑:明非

国有资产公布最新“家底”

新华社

随着国务院关于2023年度国有资产管理情况的综合报告11月5日提请十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议审议,国有资产公布最新“家底”。

报告显示,2023年,国有资产管理和改革不断推进,“家底”更加雄厚。下一步,将持续深化国有企业改革,提高国有金融资本服务保障能力,提升行政事业性国有资产管理水平,完善国有自然资源资产管理制度体系,不断完善国有资产报告制度。

网络编辑:明非

善择ESG风险跟踪第57期|151家公司暴露ESG风险,卓朗科技财务造假触及强制退市情形

南方周末中国企业社会责任研究中心

责任编辑:侯明辉

2024年10月第4周,151家上市公司曝光风险事件217起,风险指数181.85,其中治理风险占55.6%,环境风险占13.9%,社会风险占30.5%。

农业银行(601288)因淮安分行、白城分行等分支机构信贷管理不到位,收到监管部门处罚,致使ESG风险级别达到Ⅳ级,位居本期风险榜首位。卓朗科技(600225)、锦州港(600190)等公司的财务造假事件值得关注。

10月30日,卓朗科技收到证监会《行政处罚事先告知书》。告知书显示,经调查,2019至2023年,卓朗科技通过虚构业务收入,累计虚报收入超过18亿元,虚报利润超过13亿元。证监会决定对卓朗科技处以1000万元罚款,对9名相关责任人合计处罚2800万元。

按照虚增金额和相应数据占比情况,卓朗科技触及了重大违法强制退市条件。如无意外,待最终下发《行政处罚决定书》后,卓朗科技将被强制退市。这也将给投资者和股民带来损失。

11月1日,锦州港发布公告称收到证监会《行政处罚决定书》。决定书显示,经查,锦州港2018年至2021年年度报告存在虚假记载情况。为了做大收入和利润、满足银行贷款需求,锦州港与七家公司开展无商业实质的贸易业务。根据相关违法事实,锦州港被处以800万元罚款,相关责任人合计被处以1500万元罚款,个别高管被采取10年市场禁入措施。

财务造假是公司治理的重大风险,是投资者进行ESG投资时必须避开的“雷区”。令人遗憾的是,在我们的监测中,上市公司财务造假类的风险事件并不是少数现象。上市公司整体的治理水平和内控质量还需要提高,我们也期望监管更加有力,以驱逐证券市场上的劣币,保护投资者利益。

登陆善择云平台,了解往期风险动态。

校对:赵立宇

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

在南海沉睡五百多年后,它们终于出水展出

(本文首发于南方人物周刊)

张茂

责任编辑:郑洁 方迎忠

2024年9月26日,中国(海南)南海博物馆深海文物保护实验室,考古队员董佳馨(左)和王万峰在探讨南海西北陆坡一号沉船遗址文物的堆积情况(张茂/图)

2024年10月,在中国(海南)南海博物馆的“深蓝宝藏——南海西北陆坡一二号沉船考古成果特展”展厅,408件()精美的奇珍异宝大放光彩,吸引着众人驻足观赏。这是南海西北陆坡一号、二号沉船遗址的出水文物,它们曾经在深海1500多米处沉睡了五百多年。

2024年6月2日,中国(海南)南海博物馆深海文物保护实验室,工作人员运送南海西北陆坡一号、二号沉船遗址出水文物(张茂/图)

2022年1

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校对:赵立宇

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

国产新型战斗机歼-35A将亮相第十五届中国航展

央视新闻

今天(11月5日),空军在京组织新闻发布会介绍庆祝空军成立75周年以及参加第十五届中国航展有关信息。空军装备部牛文博上校介绍:第十五届中国航展期间,中型隐身多用途战斗机歼-35A也将有机会与大家见面。

此次航展空军将选派36型装备参加空中飞行展示和地面静态展示,多维度、成体系、近距离展示空军装备建设阶段性成果。

将派出“八一红鹰”飞行表演队,以及歼-20、歼-16、运油-20A等7型26架飞机进行飞行表演

成体系分板块布设静态展区;

将首次展出中型隐身多用途战斗机歼-35A、红-19地空导弹武器系统、新型察打一体无人机等新型装备;

开放展示运-20飞机货舱,现场观众可以采取预约抽签的方式参观。

中国空军

将同时装备两款隐形战机

军事专家李莉表示,这次公开歼-35A,意味着中国空军将同时拥有两款隐形战斗机——歼-20和歼-35A。这是继美国空军装备F-22和F-35之后,全球第二个同时装备两款隐形战机的国家。综合各方消息来源看,歼-35应该是一个系列,未来还可能作为航母舰载机,大幅提升我国海空作战整体实力。

更牛的大国重器

会陆续公开露面

有网友表示这些装备还“不解渴”,空军新闻发言人谢鹏大校回应称,更牛的大国重器会陆续公开露面。

网络编辑:明非

情绪没控制好,郑钦文向观众致歉

央视新闻

当地时间11月4日,郑钦文在2024年女子网球选手协会(WTA)年终总决赛单打小组赛第二轮比赛中战胜莱巴金娜,获得她总决赛的首场胜利,这也是她首次战胜莱巴金娜。赛后她接受了总台记者独家专访

发挥出六成实力

郑钦文表示,很高兴能战胜莱巴金娜,对自己的实力有自信。今天第三盘发挥比较理想,但是前两盘仍有进步空间。她认为自己发挥出了六成实力。

继续一分分打 一场场拼

郑钦文表示,接下来的比赛,要一分分打,一场场拼 ,不去想太多,努力拿下所有比赛,她坚信自己有这个实力。她认为自己要把心静下来,一步一步去走。

未控制好情绪 向观众道歉

比赛中,部分观众多次大喊郑钦文的名字为她加油,但郑钦文由于觉得受到了干扰,曾向观众高声回应:“别喊了”。比赛结束后第一时间,郑钦文在赛场采访和随后多次采访时用英语和中文解释了此事,并表示诚挚道歉,也表示会努力学习成长,更好控制自己。

希望有机会品尝沙特美食

郑钦文在回答WTA官方问卷时曾表示想在休赛期品尝更多美食,但因为现在还在比赛期,她来利雅得后还在严格控制饮食,还没有品尝当地美食,希望比赛结束后能有机会尝一尝。

网络编辑:明非

Clues to a Trump or Harris Victory Could Emerge Early. Here’s What to Look For.

It has been a race unlike any other, and declaring a winner could take a while. Here are some potential harbingers.

© New York Times photographs by Michelle Gustafson and Erin Schaff

The presidential race has been unlike any other, pitting former President Donald J. Trump, a man who has essentially been running for president for nine years, against Vice President Kamala Harris, a woman who has been running for less than 17 weeks.

美国工厂能抵挡新一轮“中国冲击”吗

简繁中文
纽约时报 出版语言
字体大小

美国工厂能抵挡新一轮“中国冲击”吗

PETER S. GOODMAN
Wolfspeed是一家为电动汽车使用的计算机芯片制造原材料的公司,该公司正在北卡罗莱纳州西勒城建厂。
Wolfspeed是一家为电动汽车使用的计算机芯片制造原材料的公司,该公司正在北卡罗莱纳州西勒城建厂。 Sebastian Siadecki for The New York Times
在过去半个世纪的大部分时间里,北卡罗莱纳州中心地区的经济生活一直被工厂倒闭、失业和预期下调所主导。纺织厂和家具厂受到来自墨西哥和中国的低价进口产品的影响。烟草加工业的职位已经消失。
然而,在过去几年里,对生物技术、计算机芯片和电动汽车等尖端行业的投资注入,使长期处于困境的社区的命运得到了改善。
北卡罗莱纳州是这一趋势的明显例子,但类似的故事正在其他地方上演。华盛顿公共政策研究机构布鲁金斯学会的研究显示,从中西部的工业区到南方的工业城镇,那些遭受贸易最严重负面影响的地区,现在正吸引最大份额的前沿领域投资。
随着家具制造业和纺织业工作岗位的消失,北卡罗莱纳州查塔姆县数十年来深受其害。
随着家具制造业和纺织业工作岗位的消失,北卡罗莱纳州查塔姆县数十年来深受其害。 Sebastian Siadecki for The New York Times
位于北卡罗莱纳州皮茨伯勒的工厂是各种小型企业的所在地,包括户外活动空间和餐馆。
位于北卡罗莱纳州皮茨伯勒的工厂是各种小型企业的所在地,包括户外活动空间和餐馆。 Sebastian Siadecki for The New York Times
布鲁金斯学会研究人员使用拜登政府为补贴国内计算机芯片和电动汽车生产而编制的数据,对美国各地的私人投资承诺进行了研究,此外还利用了麻省理工学院一个追踪清洁能源投资的数据库。研究人员发现,在过去三年中,这些关键行业已获得7360亿美元的投资承诺。
布鲁金斯学会的研究小组在绘制这些投资的分布图时得出结论,其中近三分之一的投资流入了受所谓“中国冲击”影响最严重的地区——“中国冲击” 是指2001年中国加入全球贸易体系后出现的工厂倒闭现象。
布鲁金斯都市政策项目高级研究员、该研究报告的作者之一马克·穆罗说,“这些地方仍然以生产为导向。”他说,即使发生了技术进步和产品变化,传统制造业领域往往倾向于保留制造产品所需的智慧和技能。
去年,拜登总统与Wolfspeed首席执行官格雷格·洛(左)和州长罗伊·库珀一起参观了该公司位于北卡罗莱纳州达勒姆的工厂。
去年,拜登总统与Wolfspeed首席执行官格雷格·洛(左)和州长罗伊·库珀一起参观了该公司位于北卡罗莱纳州达勒姆的工厂。 Al Drago for The New York Times
这些研究结果驳斥了人们在谈论贸易和自动化风险时经常表现出的听天由命态度,使人们相信政府有办法减轻对工人和社区的影响:针对性的拨款可以刺激具有战略意义的行业发展,同时给中产阶级带来收入。
鉴于人们对潜在的新一轮中国冲击的担忧日益加剧,这一结论尤为重要。随着中国经济放缓,限制了消费者的消费意愿,中国政府正将更多支持投向出口商。这导致越来越多的商品进入世界市场,威胁到工资较高国家的工厂就业。
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“这些冲击不是一次性的,”穆罗说。“它们会很频繁。不幸的是,它们是参与全球经济的艰难旅程的一部分。”
在可能取决于经济情绪总统大选之前,调查结果似乎支持了所谓的产业政策,即政府补贴战略性产业。在这场竞选活动中,双方对美国应如何应对国际贸易的机遇和挑战有着截然不同的看法。
前总统特朗普称中国工业是对美国生计的致命威胁,同时承诺对从中国进口的商品征收高额关税。经济学家警告说,这种做法可能会推高许多商品的价格,同时削弱依赖进口零部件的美国工厂的竞争力。
位于西勒市的Wolfspeed工厂的建设创造了约2800个工作岗位。
位于西勒市的Wolfspeed工厂的建设创造了约2800个工作岗位。 Sebastian Siadecki for The New York Times
拜登政府在保留和推进特朗普征收的许多关税的同时,也对战略行业提供补贴,以鼓励美国生产。经济学家批评这种做法是一种危及美国联盟的贸易保护主义。这些收益可能需要数年时间和数十亿美元的投资才能显现,因此政治风险更大。
布鲁金斯学会的研究表明,补贴工业的收益可能正在酝酿之中,至少在北卡罗莱纳州查塔姆县这样的地方是这样。
几十年来,随着家具制造业和纺织业的就业机会消失,该县深受其害。它在很大程度上错过了东北部罗利-达勒姆地区的生物技术热潮。
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根据北卡罗莱纳州预算与税收中心的数据,在1992年至2023年间,制造业占查塔姆县总就业人数的比例从47%下降到10%。
然而,该县利用其丰富的可开发土地和作为制造业中心的传统,吸引了大量投资。
2023年6月,为电动汽车所用电脑芯片生产原材料的Wolfspeed公司在人口约为8000人的西勒城开始建设一家占地约182公顷的工厂。
这家新工厂投资50亿美元,最近获得了商务部批准,根据《芯片与科学法案》得到7.5亿美元联邦拨款该法案是拜登政府为在美国制造计算机芯片而采取的核心举措。
在美国汽车工业的鼎盛时期,别克位于密歇根州弗林特的工厂有三万名员工。
在美国汽车工业的鼎盛时期,别克位于密歇根州弗林特的工厂有三万名员工。 Sarah Rice for The New York Times
“这将使我们能够更快地建立生产线,”Wolfspeed的首席执行官格雷格·洛说。
该公司预计明年年中开始生产,最终创造1800个就业岗位。建设该设施为大约2800名建筑工人带来了薪酬收入。
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Wolfspeed之所以选择这个地方,部分原因是这里已经拥有能输送大量水的基础设施——这是它以前作为纺织品中心时遗留下来的。Wolfspeed的技术核心是一种叫做碳化硅的材料,需要在2500摄氏度的温度下(大约是太阳表面温度的一半)生长晶体。水对冷却过程至关重要。
在查塔姆县的另一个地方,一家生产电动汽车的越南公司VinFast承诺投资40亿美元建设一家新工厂,并表示将雇佣约7500名员工。查塔姆县经济发展公司总裁迈克尔·史密斯说,开发工作一再推迟,但工厂预计将于今年开工。
就在西边毗邻的伦道夫县,丰田正在一家投资140亿美元的新工厂,测试其首批电动汽车电池。北卡罗莱纳州还拥有锂矿和精炼厂,锂是电池的关键原材料。
总的来说,这些业务将一个曾是衰落代名词的地区转变为前瞻性产业的中心。
“这是制造电动汽车的全部条件,”杜克大学经济学家、参与了《芯片法案》立法工作的亚伦·查特吉说。“你正在建立一个我们可以继续发展的集群。”
筹建中的NanoGraf弗林特工厂,该公司生产电动汽车用电池的阳极。
筹建中的NanoGraf弗林特工厂,该公司生产电动汽车用电池的阳极。 Sarah Rice for The New York Times
20世纪50年代,弗林特的别克工厂。
20世纪50年代,弗林特的别克工厂。 FPG/Archive Photos, via Getty Images
在密歇根州,另一个长期以工业萎缩为特征的州,由于对电动汽车和电池工厂的投资,前景正在改善。
在通用汽车的诞生地弗林特,一家名为NanoGraf的芝加哥公司正在建造一座制造电池组件的工厂。公司最近获得了美国能源部6000万美元的拨款。
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该工厂建在别克城的旧址上,在美国汽车业的全盛时期,别克城是一个有三万人工作的综合工厂。
民主党众议员丹·基尔迪的选区包括弗林特,但他没有竞选连任,他在别克城工厂附近的街区长大。他的祖父曾是一名伐木工人,后来搬到那里,找了份装配线工作。工薪阶层开着自己参与建造的汽车回家,在湖边的小屋度假。
当工作岗位被转移到低工资国家时,造成的损害不仅仅是经济上的,还会渗入社区的心理。1999年别克城的废弃,令弗林特进一步成为没落的标志。
现在,一种新的信心显而易见。“这个地区好像翻开了新的一页,”66岁的基尔迪说。
NanoGraf在弗林特看到了一个植根于制造业的社区,社区学院可以培训有技能的人来处理所需的工作。
公司领导也意识到,在这块曾与上个世纪汽油动力汽车的崛起密不可分的土地上,推动电动汽车的发展具有象征意义。
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“这关系到社区的振兴,”公司首席执行官弗朗西斯·王(音)说。“我们正在把铁锈带变成电池带。”

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America braced as two stark visions collide on election day

Getty Images Image shows a silhouette of a man walking past an American flagGetty Images

America is choosing its path forward, and the stakes could not be higher.

Both candidates have presented stark visions for the future if they lose this election. Donald Trump says the country will "go to hell" and become "communist immediately" if he loses, while Kamala Harris describes her opponent as a "fascist" who wants "unchecked power".

Voters in the key battleground states have been bombarded by campaign ads, much of it designed to induce fear. Given this climate, it is no wonder surveyed Americans are reporting high levels of anxiety.

"I do believe they're making us live in fear just to get our vote," Heather Soucek told me in Wisconsin as election day loomed. She lives in a swing county in a swing state, and plans to back Trump because, in her words, Harris's economic plans are "scary".

But just along the street, I also met Tracy Andropolis, a registered independent who said she would vote for Harris. "It's one of the most important elections in my lifetime. There's a lot on the line," she said, adding that she was concerned Trump would refuse to give up power if he won.

Both expressed genuine fears for the future if their candidate lost, reflecting the existential mood of many voters on the eve of the election.

Ms Andropolis also told me she did not believe the neck-and-neck polls. Not because she has any real evidence, but because she cannot envisage millions of people planning to vote for Trump. And she is by no means alone in her struggles to accept the closeness of this race.

One of the things I've learned travelling around this country and talking to voters is that America doesn't just seem remarkably divided, it feels as though two separate nations are awkwardly cohabiting on the same land mass.

Getty Images Campaign signs for Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala HarrisGetty Images

Democrats mainly live in the cities and suburbs, with Republicans mostly living in rural areas. Americans are increasingly moving to places where their neighbours share their political outlook. And it’s not hard to identify these areas at the moment, given the yard signs and placards that so often mark out Trump and Harris territory.

But it is not possible to live in these separate political worlds forever. These two sides are about to collide with the harsh reality of an election.

However disputed, however contested, there has to be a winner.

And when some here learn the eventual result and realise that tens of millions of their fellow Americans feel very differently to them, it will be a shock.

US voters: My biggest fear if the other side wins

Both Trump and Harris have charted their own historic and tumultuous paths to polling day.

I was among the press pack gathered outside a Manhattan court to witness Trump's arraignment in his criminal hush-money trial in April. He was found guilty weeks later, becoming the first former or sitting president to be convicted of a crime. Many asked at the time: could a convicted felon really reclaim the White House?

But his legal troubles and his claim that he was being deliberately targeted by the Biden administration only fuelled his campaign and fired up his supporters. "They're not after me, they're after you," he would so often say.

"They're weaponising the criminal justice system against their political enemies, and it's not right," one of his supporters told me outside the courthouse. "I will fight for this man until the day I die," another said.

A familiar pattern emerged: with each indictment, his poll ratings climbed and financial donations poured in.

Just think back to the moment last year when his mugshot was taken as part of the election interference case in Georgia. It quickly became an iconic image that now adorns many of the T-shirts I see at Trump rallies.

Evan Vucci/AP Donald Trump raises his fist as he is surrounded by US Secret Service agents after the shootingEvan Vucci/AP
Trump shortly after a gunman shot at him in Butler, Pennsylvania.

And it is impossible to recount the former president's wild ride to polling day without the moment that produced another iconic image and almost ended the contest altogether.

When Trump was shot by a would-be assassin in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July, it shook this race and this nation profoundly. As he was helped to his feet by Secret Service agents, blood pouring from his ear, he raised his fist in the air and urged his supporters to fight.

When he appeared just 48 hours later at his party's convention in Milwaukee with gauze over his ear, some in the crowd were weeping. I could see tears rolling down the face of one delegate standing near to me. It was Tina Ioane, who'd travelled from American Samoa.

"He is the anointed," she told me. "He was called to lead our nation."

At that stage in the summer, electorally, Trump looked unassailable.

On the other side, Democrats were becoming increasingly depressed about their own prospects. Deeply anxious that their candidate, Joe Biden, was too old to win re-election.

I was in the press room watching his shambolic debate against Trump in late June. There was stunned silence as we watched Biden's 50-year career in politics essentially come to an end in front of our eyes.

But even then, many who publicly suggested he should step aside were dismissed. The Biden campaign even hit out at the "bedwetting brigade" who were calling for him to go.

It would, of course, be a matter of time.

Just days after that jubilant Republican convention in July, when Trump looked like he could not lose, Biden announced he was giving up his re-election bid. The mood among Democratic supporters soon swung from anxious pessimism to excited anticipation.

Any reservations they had about whether Kamala Harris was their best candidate were erased at a joyful convention in Chicago a few weeks later. People who had been resigned to defeat were now swept away on a tide of enthusiasm.

This election represented a chance to "move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past", she said to loud cheers.

But this burst of excitement did not last. After an initial bump in the polls, Harris struggled to maintain the momentum. It appears she quickly won back traditional Democrats who were not backing Biden but found it harder to win over crucial undecided voters.

Reuters Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris waves from the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National ConventionReuters
Kamala Harris gave the Democratic party a new sense of enthusiasm.

Harris, however, has repeatedly pushed that more optimistic message. She has also made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, and is hoping the issue will motivate women to turn out in high numbers.

But the challenge, as in all presidential elections, is to convince the undecided.

I met Zoie Cheneau at a hair salon she owns in Atlanta, Georgia, less than two weeks out from the election. She said she had never been so unmotivated to vote.

"It's the lesser of two evils for me right now," she said, explaining that she would ultimately cast her ballot for Harris but felt Trump may prove better for small businesses.

"I will be excited that a black woman would be the president of the United States," she said. "And she will win, I know she will win."

Two tribes face crunch moment

While some voters are anxious and believe this race to be close, Ms Cheneau's certainty about the eventual result is something supporters on both sides repeatedly express.

Many Harris supporters simply cannot understand why she is not further ahead of a convicted criminal who has been publicly attacked and derided by those who served in his last administration.

Trump supporters are equally aghast that anyone could vote for a candidate who has flip-flopped on policy and has been in the White House at a time when illegal border crossings reached record levels.

These two tribes exist in what appear to be parallel political ecosystems, across a deep partisan divide where opposing views are dismissed and the candidates inspire a devoted loyalty that goes beyond normal party affiliation.

Voters have been given apocalpyptic warnings about what might happen if the other side wins. They've been told this election is about far more than who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years. Many believe it is an existential event that could have disastrous consequences.

There is no doubt the tone of this campaign has raised the stakes, ratcheting up anxiety and tension, meaning the aftermath of this election could be explosive. We are expecting legal challenges and street protests would be a surprise to no one.

This is a nation split between opposing visions of what's at stake. But it is in the polling stations that Red and Blue America will meet and be counted.

Whatever the result, roughly one half of the country is about to discover that the other half has a completely different sense of what America requires.

For the losers, this will be a stinging realisation.

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Trial begins over beheading of teacher who showed Prophet Muhammad cartoon

x.com/ch_capuano A black-and-white headshot of a man wearing sunglassesx.com/ch_capuano
Samuel Paty was 47 when beheaded on the street outside his school in 2020

Eight people have gone on trial in Paris accused of encouraging the killer of Samuel Paty, the teacher who was beheaded on the street outside his school four years ago.

Abdoullakh Anzorov, the young man of Chechen origin who wielded the knife, is dead – shot by police in the minutes after his attack.

So the trial is less about the murder itself, and more about the circumstances that led to it.

Over seven weeks, the court will hear how a 13-year-old’s schoolgirl lie span out of control thanks to social media, triggering an international hate campaign, and inspiring a lone mission of vengeance from a self-styled defender of Islam.

On trial are two men accused of identifying Mr Paty as a “blasphemer” over the Internet, two friends of Anzorov who allegedly gave him logistical help, and four others who offered support on chatlines.

Mr Paty’s murder horrified – and petrified – France.

He was a conscientious and much-liked history teacher in a secondary school in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, in the prosperous western suburbs of Paris.

On 6 October 2020 he gave a lesson on freedom of speech – the same lesson he had given several times before – to a class of young teenagers.

Drawing on the tragically famous episode of Charlie Hebdo magazine – how publication of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad had led to the 2015 murder of most of its staff – he briefly showed an example of the cartoons.

Before doing so he recommended that those who feared being offended avert their eyes.

The next day one of his pupils – the 13-year-old girl – was asked by her father why she was not going to school.

She told him she had been disciplined because she dared to stand up to Mr Paty when he told Muslims to leave the class so he could show a naked picture of the prophet.

It was a triple lie.

Mr Paty had not told Muslims to leave the class. The girl had been disciplined, but not for the reason she said. She had not even been in the room on the day Mr Paty gave the lesson on freedom of speech.

Getty Images A woman crouches down to look at dozens of bunches of flowers left on the ground near a building. A sign reads "Je suis Samuel"Getty Images
Thousands paid tribute to Samuel Paty after his murder

But with the Internet to send it on its way, the lie spread... and spread.

First the girl’s father – Brahim Chnina - made her repeat the claim on videos, which he posted on Facebook, naming the teacher.

Then, a local Islamist - Abdelhakim Sefrioui - created a 10-minute online video entitled “Islam and the prophet insulted in a public college.”

Within a couple of days the school was inundated with threats and messages of hate from around the world. Paty told colleagues that he was living through a difficult time because of the campaign against him.

Meanwhile, the denunciation had reached the attention of an 18-year-old Chechen refugee living in Rouen, 80km (50 miles) to the west.

Anzorov made an initial note on his telephone that read: “A teacher has shown his class a picture of the messenger of Allah naked.”

Anzorov then sought the help of two friends, who are now on trial.

One of them was allegedly present when he bought a knife in a Rouen shop. The other helped him buy two replica pistols on 16 October, the day of the attack, and then drove him to the school.

The four last defendants - including one woman - are people with whom Anzorov conversed on Snapchat and Twitter and who allegedly offered him encouragement.

The defendants admit their connection to the case, but they contest the charges of "terrorist association" or "complicity to commit terrorist murder".

Lawyers for the girl’s father and the Islamist preacher will argue that though they publicly condemned Mr Paty, they never called for his murder.

In a similar vein, lawyers for Anzorov’s friends – actual and online – will say they had no notion he planned a killing.

For the prosecution, context is key. Samuel Paty’s murder took place at a time of heightened awareness of the jihadist threat. In October 2020, Charlie Hebdo had just re-published some of the cartoons, to mark the start of a trial resulting from the original attack.

The internet was full of new Islamist threats against France, and in late September a Pakistani man had wounded two people with a machete at Charlie Hebdo’s former offices.

In that climate, publicly denouncing a man for blasphemy was tantamount to designating a terrorist target, prosecutors will argue.

A year ago the girl at the heart of the case was convicted in a minors’ court of making false accusations and given a suspended prison term.

Five other pupils were also convicted of identifying Mr Paty for Anzarov in return for money.

The trial is set to run until late December.

新疆逾三十名哈萨克族人遭指控叛国等罪 涵盖官员 作家 学者与记者

近日,新疆地区逮捕了一批哈萨克族人士,超过三十人被指控叛国、分裂国家等罪名。被拘押者身份涵盖政府官员、记者、作家及学者,致使《新疆日报》哈萨克语部几乎陷入停摆,事件引发国际社会广泛关注。

据哈萨克斯坦人权机构阿塔珠尔特志愿者组织及多名哈萨克斯坦新疆移民透露,自今年4月以来,新疆乌鲁木齐、伊犁等地已有数十名哈萨克族官员、作家等社会菁英遭当局秘密拘押,罪名涉及叛国、煽动民族分裂等。

阿塔珠尔特创办人赛尔克坚在本周二(5日)接受自由亚洲电台采访时表示,这些哈萨克族人被悄然逮捕:“我们通过多个渠道核实获知,从今年4月开始,新疆多名哈萨克族官员和知识分子先后被捕,包括前新疆电视台哈萨克语部主任哈那提·叶热杰普(Kanat Yerezhep)、《新疆日报》记者及哈萨克语儿童节目负责人等人。”

大部分被羁押者被指控叛国

赛尔克坚透露,哈那提·叶热杰普虽已退休,但在今年4月被捕。此外,新疆自治区外事办公室前副主任哈斯木·奥汗(Kasym Okan)亦遭拘押,官方并未公布其具体罪由。其他被拘押者也面临类似境遇,多因“叛国”罪被捕,有些家属甚至数年后才获知亲人被捕消息。

他还提到:“加尼别克·昭达提(Zhanibek Zhaudat)1985年生,毕业于中国的一所大学统计学系,毕业后任职于新疆日报,2022年被捕(原因不明),至2024年才正式公开逮捕。此前其家人根本不知道他为何被捕。而这三十多名哈萨克官员以及知识分子几乎都在20244月被捕。”

阿塔珠尔特志愿者组织向自由亚洲电台提供的被捕者名单显示,涉及电视台哈萨克语儿童节目部记者、《新疆日报》前记者、自治区党委宣传部人员。他们的背景各异,但几乎都被指控分裂或叛国罪,当局并未公开具体原因。《新疆日报》哈萨克语部因此几近停滞,此次大规模逮捕行动显示出当局对哈萨克族知识分子的高度戒备。人权组织对此高度关注,指出拘捕行动覆盖范围广,涉及力度大,但官方尚未说明动机。

赛尔克坚指出,许多被捕者的家属至今未收到任何官方通知:“他们的家人至今没有收到任何逮捕通知或法律文件,甚至不清楚能否申请律师协助。”

本台记者曾试图联系新疆电视台、《新疆日报》和新疆自治区公安厅办公室,但均无人接听。

新疆重新审查哈萨克人出版物

阿塔珠尔特志愿者组织负责人别克扎提指出,该组织花费大量时间核实被捕者身份,并发现当局在追查一些哈萨克族人十几年前的行为。他说:“从去年开始,我们陆续得知有文化知识的哈萨克族人被捕,大部分是退休的老干部,有些被追溯到十多年前的言行,当时符合法律的出版内容,如今被指存在民族分裂思想。”

别克扎提认为,新疆当局试图以此为借口打压有思想的哈萨克族文化精英。

哈萨克媒体关注新疆哈萨克族人被捕

此事在哈萨克斯坦媒体中引起关注,多家媒体已报道新疆哈萨克族人被捕的情况,并在YouTube等平台上广泛传播。据一位移居哈萨克斯坦二十多年的受访者透露,“我听说了,我听哈萨克斯坦媒体已经报道了,美国之音报道了、Radio Azattyq(RFE)报道了。还有哈萨克斯坦自己有一个频道,不是国家的,一个私人频道阿拜(音)他也报道了,还有油管频道全是哈萨克语。”

赛尔克坚称,少数被捕者早在2019年至2023年被拘押,但家属在今年4月才接到当局口头通知。还有新疆其他地区的政府官员、作家和文化人,最新一波的被捕情况也在核实中。

责编:许书婷

💾

© 阿塔珠尔特志愿者组织提供。

胡安德克·库布呢 (HUANDEH KOBEN)(左),新疆电视台制片人,摄影家。海拉提·都马林(HAYRAT DOMALIYIN ),新疆电视台记者。均在2024年春季被捕。

Trump blended nostalgia with attacks on Pelosi and Harris in final campaign speech

GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN – Donald Trump closed a years-long presidential campaign early Tuesday following a historic cycle that included two apparent attempts on his life, a pivot to a new Democratic candidate and multiple criminal indictments — with one last rally where he pushed for immediate election results.

“We want the answer tonight,” Trump said from a podium in the battleground state after calling into question the integrity of voting machines and decrying the possibility that results could take up to two weeks.

Before launching into a nearly two-hour speech that stretched past 2:00 a.m., Trump seemed wistful as he strolled down the catwalk to applause from supporters.

His voice was raspy after back-to-back rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and finally Michigan.

“This has been an incredible journey. It's very sad in a way. This is the last one,” Trump said as he stood before the crowd. He recalled being in Grand Rapids in 2016, when there were doubts about his election odds.

The reminiscing didn’t last long before Trump launched a meandering closing speech where he promised to “make Detroit greater than it ever was," shared a story about billionaire supporter Elon Musk, described the Lincoln Bedroom, railed against Nancy Pelosi saying he wanted to call her the "B-word," talked about migrant gangs, threatened to tariff Mexico 100 percent over immigration and compared his crowd sizes to that of Kamala Harris.

"They have no enthusiasm. She had a rally today. She couldn’t have had more than a hundred people there. I had all four stadiums full," Trump said.

Trump, who is known to be superstitious, decided to hold his last rally in the same city in Michigan where he wrapped up his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. The former president was almost two hours late to his Grand Rapids event and kept speaking until the early morning hours. As it continued, people in the audience, some of whom had lined up since early in the morning for a seat inside the arena, began to trickle out.

Trump called on his supporters to get out and vote, and declared “if we win Michigan, we win the whole thing.”

On Trump’s last day of campaigning, the former president also spoke about his third run for the White House as more of an end of an era that began in 2015 – and could finally dawn if he doesn't win the presidency a second time.

“It’s now been nine years we have been fighting, step by step together,” Trump said. “There is love in this room, I think there is love in this country, I think it is a much bigger movement than we understand.”

“There will never be anything like this,” Trump said. At the end of the rally, he invited his adult children to join him on stage.

Trump has appeared to grow sentimental as he discusses the political movement he has led — one characterized by his signature rallies where supporters turn up by the thousands, standing in line for hours. Over the last week, Trump reminisced about his nearly decade-long run of holding political gatherings, repeatedly making comments about concluding his campaigning for office.

“This is really the end of a journey,” Trump said Monday, “but a new one will be starting.”

Trump has made it clear he wants to be remembered as the only political figure who could command such a following, even when, he notes, he is eventually succeeded by another Republican.

“We’re doing something historic. This has never been done before,” Trump said in Raleigh, during the first of four such stops Monday. “They’ll never have rallies like this.”

Kellyanne Conway, who ran Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, described his rallies as “central” to his campaign. “People feel like they are part of something enjoyable and consequential, not a conventional campaign, but.a movement. We are entering the 10th year - and final homestretch - of the Trump rallies. Millions of people have shown up to watch him stand up, put up and speak up. The people are his oxygen.”

Colleen Kill, 31, from Rochester Hills, Michigan, was waiting in line to find a seat inside the arena on Monday night and said coming to a Trump rally was on her “bucket list.” Kristi Wackerle, 44, from Grand Rapids, said she wanted to “be part of history.”

“This could be the last time,” she said.

Trump boasted about his crowd sizes even as the numbers at some recent events fell. On Monday, Trump claimed he could have filled Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum “three times, maybe four times” on Friday night. (He filled much of the 18,000 capacity arena, but there were still open seats inside.)

He made that claim Monday as he stood in a not-full Dorton Arena in Raleigh, where photos show eight years ago, nearly every seat was occupied during his Election Eve rally.

Later, in Pittsburgh, Trump mocked Harris for holding a competing rally in the city, calling it “little” and “quite embarrassing.” He marveled at the “frisky” crowd he had drawn to the PPG Paints Arena, which was on its feet cheering and jeering through at least the first hour of his speech. Left unmentioned: the draped-off upper level and the empty seats that dotted the lower bowl.

The Harris campaign turned Trump’s obsession into a frequent campaign trail taunt.

Over the past week, as Trump confronts the possible end of his political career, his demeanor has oscillated wildly — sometimes within the same day. At times in this final stretch, he has displayed the cutting humor that endeared him to millions of Americans first as an entertainer and then as a politician. On Wednesday speaking to press from a sanitation truck and wearing a bright-orange safety vest at a Green Bay, Wisconsin rally, Trump mocked President Joe Biden over his muddled “garbage” remark.

But on Sunday, after a series of polls showed positive signs for Harris, Trump was at his most aggrieved. While criticizing Democrats’ handling of the southern border, Trump said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2021 after failing to overturn the results of the 2020 election. While speaking about the enhanced security protections at his rallies following two attempted assassinations, he said he wouldn’t “mind” if “somebody would have to shoot through the fake news” to get to him. His campaign later said Trump was not wishing harm on the media.

By the time he rallied in North Carolina hours later, Trump — who has kept up an aggressive schedule of three or four rallies a day down the campaign’s home stretch while sometimes bemoaning the pace — seemed confused about what state he was in.

On Monday, Trump was more nostalgic as he stared down an uncertain future.

“It’s sad,” he said in Pittsburgh. “We’ll never have this. But we’ll have other get togethers.”

© Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

“有生以来最重要的一次选举”:两党为投票日最后冲刺

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“有生以来最重要的一次选举”:两党为投票日最后冲刺

EDUARDO MEDINA, JACK HEALY, JULIE BOSMAN
成千上万的志愿者周末在全国各地拉票。贺锦丽竞选团队的志愿者米歇尔·加西亚-丹尼尔斯(左)周六在宾夕法尼亚州北费城登门拉票。
成千上万的志愿者周末在全国各地拉票。贺锦丽竞选团队的志愿者米歇尔·加西亚-丹尼尔斯(左)周六在宾夕法尼亚州北费城登门拉票。 Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times
礼拜天早上,在北卡罗莱纳州牛津,迈克尔·马格南蒂在他的教堂里听牧师讲道,牧师问有没有要向会众宣布的事情。
马格南蒂从唱诗班席站起来,刚才的赞美诗帮他的嗓子做了热身。
“礼拜二就是选举日了,”身为格兰维尔县共和党主席的马格南蒂说。“我恳求大家去投票,因为这是你们有生以来最重要的一次选举。”
在这个战场州里,他发出了几近绝望的最后吁求,这里的总统竞选仍然十分接近。周末发布的民调——包括《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院的调查——显示,从宾夕法尼亚到密西根到亚利桑那,特朗普和贺锦丽副总统在摇摆州的胶着令人备感折磨,在这场漫长而疲惫的竞选的最后时刻,渴望做一了断的美国人迟迟难以放下心来。
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这种不确定性也成了一种推动力。候选人、竞选工作人员和在全国各地的数万志愿者在最后关头全面出击,抓紧时间争取尽可能多的选票。最终结果不分伯仲的可能性,促使双方都需要怀着前所未有的紧迫感和热情去动员每一个选民。
在体育场的舞台上,在街边的竞选办公室里,党派领袖呼吁人们不要停下来。志愿者两人一组,拿着写字板,冒着风雨挨家挨户敲门。
他们都一心想抓住最后的机会来劝说更多的人出来为他们那位候选人投票,希望能带来一点点不同,而在这场选举里,一点点的不同可能已经足够。
贺锦丽似乎在许多摇摆州保持了资源优势,相较特朗普团队,他们的拉票工作结构更紧密、资金更充足,在广度和复杂度上都更胜一筹。贺锦丽团队称他们周末在摇摆州部署了逾90000名志愿者,敲响了超过300万户人家的门。
相比之下,特朗普团队在拉票上更多依靠外部组织,把注意力集中在不怎么热衷于投票但有可能投给共和党的人群。亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克通过他的“美利坚政治行动委员会”组织了一场耗资1.3亿美元的拉票活动,其中包括一场投入了2500名游说员的登门行动,主要是在战场州的乡村地区。
在被问及近日使用了多少游说员时,特朗普竞选团队的一位发言人没有给出具体数字,但表示“在全国各地有成千上万的志愿者,他们在各自的社区争分夺秒地争取选票”。
纽约的前共和党众议员李·泽尔丁周日在黑泽尔镇对选民讲话。
纽约的前共和党众议员李·泽尔丁周日在黑泽尔镇对选民讲话。 Eric Lee/The New York Times
在战场州,争取选民的努力在竞选最后时刻显得格外炽烈。
在内华达州,早起投票结束后,在册共和党人投出的票数比在册民主党人多了43000票,引起贺锦丽支持者的警觉。于是在这个周末,内华达民主党的数百名志愿者在本周唯一摇摆县的最大城市雷诺登门拉票。支持贺锦丽的雷诺市长希拉里·席耶弗呼吁居民们去鼓励家人或朋友投票。“给人打电话,”她说。
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在乔治亚州,州共和党主席约什·麦库恩也发出了类似的呼吁,他对特朗普的支持者说,只有他们的票是不够的,他们应该抓住竞选的最后几个小时鼓励亲属和朋友去投票。
“你们需要去争取你认识的每一个会投票给他的人,这是一个体面的人,一个好人,一个会为我们挡住子弹的人,”麦库恩在周日的一场集会上说。
竞选双方都求助于名人和大牌代言人,他们来到密西根、威斯康辛、佐治亚和宾夕法尼亚,劝说那些可能需要再推一把的选民。
阿肯色州州长萨拉·赫卡比·桑德斯、南达科他州州长克丽斯蒂·诺姆以及共和党全国委员会联系主席拉拉·特朗普周末出现在佐治亚州的一场活动中,动员女性投票给特朗普。(佐治亚州已经投票的选民中近56%为女性。)
周末前往宾夕法尼亚州各地的志愿者中包括83岁的演员、因在《法律与秩序》中的演出而闻名的萨姆·沃特斯顿。他在兰卡斯特的民主党总部与其他志愿者打招呼,一起合影留念,然后亲自去登门拉票。
前总统比尔·克林顿周日出现在佐治亚州奥古斯塔的一场拉票集会上,鼓励贺锦丽的支持者去积极争取最后仅剩的那几位尚未拿定主意的佐治亚人。
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“还有几个人是你可以去改变的,”克林顿说。
在北卡罗莱纳州,《纽约时报》周日发布的一份民调显示贺锦丽领先三个百分点,共和党人在这里发起了最后的周末冲刺:一场全区大集会,北卡州第11国会选区的共和党主席米歇尔·伍德豪斯说,该活动旨在为本党票仓注入信心,同时也要争取那些尚未投票的保守派人士。
在西部的海伍德县举行了一场名为“红色巨浪”的特朗普马路集会,乐队演唱了爱国歌曲,人们打扮成特朗普的样子前来助兴。
“民调显示贺锦丽更有可能成为合众国总统,这种事只会激发共和党人和特朗普支持者毫无保留地投入,确保他们认识的每一个人都去投票,”伍德豪斯说。
周日,志愿者聚集在威斯康辛州麦迪逊一处民主党竞选办公室,他们随后将去登门拉票。
周日,志愿者聚集在威斯康辛州麦迪逊一处民主党竞选办公室,他们随后将去登门拉票。 Todd Heisler/The New York Times
竞选双方都在加紧致电潜在的选民,其重点是选举日当天的具体事务:询问选民作何打算,如何前往投票站,是否需要登记。
北卡州纳什县共和党副主席玛丽·海伦·佩尔特说,年轻共和党人聚集在这里,有的去登门拉票,有的向选民发短信,有的在社交媒体频道上大量发布选区开放和关闭时间等信息。
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“到头来总会有这么一个人在说,‘我不知道那天就是选举日啊,’”她说。“我觉得难以置信,但的确是有这种人。”

Alan Blinder、Mitch Smith、Rick Rojas、Benjamin Oreskes、Maya King、Jonathan Weisman、Emily Cochrane、Campbell Robertson、Kellen Browning、Jazmine Ulloa和Soumya Karlamangla对本文有报道贡献。

Eduardo Medina是时报报道美国南部的记者。他出生在阿拉巴马州,目前驻北卡罗来纳州达勒姆。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 

Jack Healy是驻菲尼克斯的国内新闻记者,专注于报道西南地区快速变化的政治和气候。他曾在伊拉克和阿富汗工作,毕业于密苏里大学新闻学院。点击查看更对多关于他的信息。

Julie Bosman是时报芝加哥分社社长,撰写和报道中西部新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。

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Boeing strike ends as workers back 38% pay rise deal

Getty Images Light blue coloured ballot papers being counted as the Boeing union tallies votes on the latest Boeing contract offer at the District Lodge 751 Union Hall in Seattle, Washington on 4 November, 2024.Getty Images

Boeing workers have voted to accept the aviation giant's latest pay offer, ending a damaging seven-week-long walkout.

Striking workers can start returning to their jobs as early as Wednesday, or as late as 12 November, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) union says.

Under the new contract, they will get a 38% pay rise over the next four years.

The walkout by more than 30,000 unionised Boeing workers started on 13 September, leading to a dramatic slowdown at the plane maker's factories and deepening a crisis at the company.

The IAM union said that 59% of the striking workers voted in favour of the new deal, which also includes a one-off $12,000 (£9,300) bonus, as well as changes to workers' retirement plans.

"This is a victory. We can hold our heads high," union leader Jon Holden said as he announced the results of the ballot.

The union had previously called for a 40% pay increase and workers had rejected two previous offers from the company.

Boeing has been trying to shore up its finances and end the strike, which has now cost it nearly $10bn, according to consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.

In October, its commercial aircraft business reported operating losses of $4bn for the three months to the end of September.

Last week, the firm launched a share sale to raise more than $20bn.

It came after warnings that a prolonged strike could lead to downgrades to Boeing's credit rating, which would make it more expensive for it to borrow money.

Last month, the firm said it would lay off around 17,000 workers, with the first redundancy notices expected to be issued in mid-November.

The latest crisis at Boeing erupted in January with a dramatic mid-air blowout of a piece of one of its passenger planes.

Its space business also suffered a reputational hit after its Starliner vessel was forced to return to Earth without carrying astronauts.

America braced as two stark visions collide on election day

Getty Images Image shows a silhouette of a man walking past an American flagGetty Images

America is choosing its path forward, and the stakes could not be higher.

Both candidates have presented stark visions for the future if they lose this election. Donald Trump says the country will "go to hell" and become "communist immediately" if he loses, while Kamala Harris describes her opponent as a "fascist" who wants "unchecked power".

Voters in the key battleground states have been bombarded by campaign ads, much of it designed to induce fear. Given this climate, it is no wonder surveyed Americans are reporting high levels of anxiety.

"I do believe they're making us live in fear just to get our vote," Heather Soucek told me in Wisconsin as election day loomed. She lives in a swing county in a swing state, and plans to back Trump because, in her words, Harris's economic plans are "scary".

But just along the street, I also met Tracy Andropolis, a registered independent who said she would vote for Harris. "It's one of the most important elections in my lifetime. There's a lot on the line," she said, adding that she was concerned Trump would refuse to give up power if he won.

Both expressed genuine fears for the future if their candidate lost, reflecting the existential mood of many voters on the eve of the election.

Ms Andropolis also told me she did not believe the neck-and-neck polls. Not because she has any real evidence, but because she cannot envisage millions of people planning to vote for Trump. And she is by no means alone in her struggles to accept the closeness of this race.

One of the things I've learned travelling around this country and talking to voters is that America doesn't just seem remarkably divided, it feels as though two separate nations are awkwardly cohabiting on the same land mass.

Getty Images Campaign signs for Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala HarrisGetty Images

Democrats mainly live in the cities and suburbs, with Republicans mostly living in rural areas. Americans are increasingly moving to places where their neighbours share their political outlook. And it’s not hard to identify these areas at the moment, given the yard signs and placards that so often mark out Trump and Harris territory.

But it is not possible to live in these separate political worlds forever. These two sides are about to collide with the harsh reality of an election.

However disputed, however contested, there has to be a winner.

And when some here learn the eventual result and realise that tens of millions of their fellow Americans feel very differently to them, it will be a shock.

US voters: My biggest fear if the other side wins

Both Trump and Harris have charted their own historic and tumultuous paths to polling day.

I was among the press pack gathered outside a Manhattan court to witness Trump's arraignment in his criminal hush-money trial in April. He was found guilty weeks later, becoming the first former or sitting president to be convicted of a crime. Many asked at the time: could a convicted felon really reclaim the White House?

But his legal troubles and his claim that he was being deliberately targeted by the Biden administration only fuelled his campaign and fired up his supporters. "They're not after me, they're after you," he would so often say.

"They're weaponising the criminal justice system against their political enemies, and it's not right," one of his supporters told me outside the courthouse. "I will fight for this man until the day I die," another said.

A familiar pattern emerged: with each indictment, his poll ratings climbed and financial donations poured in.

Just think back to the moment last year when his mugshot was taken as part of the election interference case in Georgia. It quickly became an iconic image that now adorns many of the T-shirts I see at Trump rallies.

Evan Vucci/AP Donald Trump raises his fist as he is surrounded by US Secret Service agents after the shootingEvan Vucci/AP
Trump shortly after a gunman shot at him in Butler, Pennsylvania.

And it is impossible to recount the former president's wild ride to polling day without the moment that produced another iconic image and almost ended the contest altogether.

When Trump was shot by a would-be assassin in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July, it shook this race and this nation profoundly. As he was helped to his feet by Secret Service agents, blood pouring from his ear, he raised his fist in the air and urged his supporters to fight.

When he appeared just 48 hours later at his party's convention in Milwaukee with gauze over his ear, some in the crowd were weeping. I could see tears rolling down the face of one delegate standing near to me. It was Tina Ioane, who'd travelled from American Samoa.

"He is the anointed," she told me. "He was called to lead our nation."

At that stage in the summer, electorally, Trump looked unassailable.

On the other side, Democrats were becoming increasingly depressed about their own prospects. Deeply anxious that their candidate, Joe Biden, was too old to win re-election.

I was in the press room watching his shambolic debate against Trump in late June. There was stunned silence as we watched Biden's 50-year career in politics essentially come to an end in front of our eyes.

But even then, many who publicly suggested he should step aside were dismissed. The Biden campaign even hit out at the "bedwetting brigade" who were calling for him to go.

It would, of course, be a matter of time.

Just days after that jubilant Republican convention in July, when Trump looked like he could not lose, Biden announced he was giving up his re-election bid. The mood among Democratic supporters soon swung from anxious pessimism to excited anticipation.

Any reservations they had about whether Kamala Harris was their best candidate were erased at a joyful convention in Chicago a few weeks later. People who had been resigned to defeat were now swept away on a tide of enthusiasm.

This election represented a chance to "move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past", she said to loud cheers.

But this burst of excitement did not last. After an initial bump in the polls, Harris struggled to maintain the momentum. It appears she quickly won back traditional Democrats who were not backing Biden but found it harder to win over crucial undecided voters.

Reuters Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris waves from the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National ConventionReuters
Kamala Harris gave the Democratic party a new sense of enthusiasm.

Harris, however, has repeatedly pushed that more optimistic message. She has also made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, and is hoping the issue will motivate women to turn out in high numbers.

But the challenge, as in all presidential elections, is to convince the undecided.

I met Zoie Cheneau at a hair salon she owns in Atlanta, Georgia, less than two weeks out from the election. She said she had never been so unmotivated to vote.

"It's the lesser of two evils for me right now," she said, explaining that she would ultimately cast her ballot for Harris but felt Trump may prove better for small businesses.

"I will be excited that a black woman would be the president of the United States," she said. "And she will win, I know she will win."

Two tribes face crunch moment

While some voters are anxious and believe this race to be close, Ms Cheneau's certainty about the eventual result is something supporters on both sides repeatedly express.

Many Harris supporters simply cannot understand why she is not further ahead of a convicted criminal who has been publicly attacked and derided by those who served in his last administration.

Trump supporters are equally aghast that anyone could vote for a candidate who has flip-flopped on policy and has been in the White House at a time when illegal border crossings reached record levels.

These two tribes exist in what appear to be parallel political ecosystems, across a deep partisan divide where opposing views are dismissed and the candidates inspire a devoted loyalty that goes beyond normal party affiliation.

Voters have been given apocalpyptic warnings about what might happen if the other side wins. They've been told this election is about far more than who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years. Many believe it is an existential event that could have disastrous consequences.

There is no doubt the tone of this campaign has raised the stakes, ratcheting up anxiety and tension, meaning the aftermath of this election could be explosive. We are expecting legal challenges and street protests would be a surprise to no one.

This is a nation split between opposing visions of what's at stake. But it is in the polling stations that Red and Blue America will meet and be counted.

Whatever the result, roughly one half of the country is about to discover that the other half has a completely different sense of what America requires.

For the losers, this will be a stinging realisation.

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A simple guide to the US 2024 presidential election

US election 2024: A really simple guide to the presidential vote

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White House stylised with stars and stripes

Americans will head to the polls in November to elect the next US president. The vote will be closely watched around the world.

They will also be voting for members of Congress, who play a key part in passing laws that can have a profound effect on American life.

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When is the US presidential election?

The 2024 election is on Tuesday, 5 November 2024. The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in January 2025.

The president has the power to pass some laws on their own but mostly he or she must work with Congress to pass legislation.

On the world stage, the US leader has considerable freedom to represent the country abroad and to conduct foreign policy.

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Who are the candidates and how are they nominated?

The two main parties nominate a presidential candidate by holding a series of votes called state primaries and caucuses, where people choose who they want to lead the party in a general election.

In the Republican Party, former president Donald Trump won his party's support with a massive lead over his rivals. He became the official Republican nominee at a party convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump chose Ohio senator JD Vance to be his vice-presidential running mate.

For the Democrats, Vice-President Kamala Harris joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out and no other Democrats stood against her. Her running mate is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

There are also some independent candidates running for president.

One of the most prominent was Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F Kennedy, but he suspended his campaign in late August and has endorsed Trump.

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What do Democrats and Republicans stand for?

The Democrats are the liberal political party, with an agenda defined largely by its push for civil rights, a broad social safety net and measures to address climate change.

The Republicans are the conservative political party in the US. Also known as the GOP, or the Grand Old Party, it has stood for lower taxes, shrinking the size of the government, gun rights and tighter restrictions on immigration and abortion.

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How does the US presidential election work?

The winner is not the person who gets the most votes across the country. Instead, both candidates compete to win contests held across the 50 states.

Each state has a certain number of so-called electoral college votes partly based on population. There are a total of 538 up for grabs, and the winner is the candidate that wins 270 or more.

All but two states have a winner-takes-all rule, so whichever candidate wins the highest number of votes is awarded all of the state's electoral college votes.

Most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, so the focus is usually on a dozen or so states where either of them could win. These are known as the battleground or swing states.

It is possible for a candidate to win the most votes nationally - like Hillary Clinton did in 2016 - but still be defeated by the electoral college.

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Who can vote in the US presidential election?

Most US citizens who are aged 18 or over are eligible to vote in the presidential election.

Every state except North Dakota requires people to register before they can vote.

Each state has its own voter registration process and deadline.

US citizens who live abroad can register to vote and request an absentee postal ballot by completing the Federal Post Card Application (FCPA), external.

Early voting in some states - including crucial swing states Georgia and North Carolina - is already under way.

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Who else is being elected in November?

All of the attention will be on who wins the presidency, but voters will also be choosing new members of Congress - where laws are passed - when they fill in their ballots.

Congress consists of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election, and the Senate, where 34 seats are being contested.

Republicans currently control the House, which initiates spending plans. Democrats are in charge of the Senate, which votes on key appointments in government.

These two chambers pass laws and can act as a check on White House plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the president.

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When will we know who has won the election?

Usually the winner is declared on the night of the election, but in 2020 it took a few days to count all the votes.

The period after the election is know as the transition, if there is a change of president.

This gives the new administration time to appoint cabinet ministers and make plans for the new term.

The president is officially sworn into office in January in a ceremony known as the inauguration, held on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington DC.

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North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his weekly US Election Unspun newsletter.

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Barcelona hit by new flood as rescuers search Valencia basement car park

Reuters Brown water can be seen flooding the entrance of a car park, with debris including wooden pallets and plastic packaging floating in it.Reuters
Divers have concentrated their search for missing bodies in garages and a multi-storey car park in the town of Aldaia

Spanish rescuers are focusing their search for missing people on underground garages and a multi-storey car park following last week's devastating floods in Valencia.

The death toll after a year's worth of rain fell in parts of the region last week now stands at 217.

A car park in the nearby town of Aldaia capable of holding thousands of vehicles, has become central to the search, but rescue teams have reportedly not yet found any bodies.

It comes as Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) placed part of the north-eastern Catalonia region on red alert for torrential rain, with its capital Barcelona experiencing flooding on Monday morning.

The car park at the Bonaire shopping centre in Aldaia was inundated during flash floods last week.

According to Spanish news agency Europa Press, police have confirmed that search teams did not locate any victims in the first 50 vehicles inspected at the site.

EPA-EFE/REX/Shuttershock Firefighters and rescue divers in uniform stand outside an underground car park.EPA-EFE/REX/Shuttershock
Divers are searching a car park in Aldaia which was inundated by the flash floods

The storm caught many victims in their vehicles on roads and in underground spaces such as car parks, tunnels and garages where rescue operations are particularly difficult.

On Monday, the family of a missing British couple in their 70s confirmed they had been found dead in their car days after flash flooding hit the region.

There has been anger at a perceived lack of warning and insufficient support from authorities after the floods.

On Sunday, the king and queen of Spain were pelted with mud and other objects by angry protesters during a visit to the town of Paiporta - one of the worst-affected in Valencia.

Objects were also thrown at Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who was quickly evacuated.

The Civil Guard has opened an investigation into the chaotic scenes, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told public broadcaster TVE.

He blamed "marginal groups" for instigating the violence where mud spattered the monarchs' face and clothes.

Video shows angry crowd throwing objects at Spanish king on Sunday

Local authorities in Valencia have extended travel restrictions for another two days to facilitate the work of the emergency services, cancelled school classes and urged people to work from home.

In Catalonia, train services have been suspended due to adverse weather conditions, while footage shared online appears to show vehicles submerged in floodwater on roads.

美国人在不安、焦虑与恐惧中迎接大选

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美国人在不安、焦虑与恐惧中迎接大选

LISA LERER, KATIE GLUECK
Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
在美国理想中,选举是爱国主义的时刻,是公民通过投票箱解决分歧的时刻,无论分歧有多么激烈。
在2024年的现实中,有些地方,投票箱真的在燃烧。
因此,这次选举比近期记忆中的任何一次都更加黑暗。选举日来临之际,政治暴力、暗杀企图和发誓报复对手——对21世纪的美国来说曾经难以想象的可能性让这个国家感到不安。
如果说上一次选举是新冠病毒爆发期间一场需要保持社交距离的角逐,对许多选民来说,弥漫在那一次选举中的焦虑,如今已经变成一种更可怕的不祥预感
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在竞选活动的最后一个周末进行的数十个采访中,来自不同政治派别的美国人都表示,在前往战场州的投票站时,他们感到自己的国家要完了。虽然有些人对漫长的选举季终于接近尾声表示欣慰,但对选举日以及之后可能发生的事情,他们依然难免深感不安。
这些担忧反映了这个国家的忧惧。这个国家经历了动荡的四年,一场导致100多万美国人死亡的毁灭性流行病,令人震惊的围攻国会大厦事件颠覆了国家和平交接权力的基本传统,延续了近半个世纪的联邦堕胎权被剥夺,几十年来从未见过的物价飙升,这一切都改变了这个国家。全国各地的城市都感受到了南部边境移民危机带来的压力
总统候选人把这次选举描述为一场关乎国家特性、民主和居民安全的生死之战。在民主党人的广告和竞选活动中,他们讲述了因限制性堕胎禁令险些丧命的女性的生动故事。而共和党人则在竞选活动中描述了非法入境的外国帮派成员在美国犯下的残忍罪行,告诉美国人他们可能成为下一个受害者。
许多选民对选举后的暴力表示担忧。
副总统贺锦丽上周前往拉斯维加斯参加竞选集会。
副总统贺锦丽上周前往拉斯维加斯参加竞选集会。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times
周日,在密歇根州诺维市,提前投票的选民在诺维市政中心填写选票。
周日,在密歇根州诺维市,提前投票的选民在诺维市政中心填写选票。 Nick Hagen for The New York Times
“我担心暴力,”密歇根州大急流城70岁的退休人员比尔·纳普说。周六在当地的民主党竞选办公室与副总统贺锦丽的其他支持者交流时,他指责特朗普有使用暴力的可能性。“无论结果如何,我都做好了准备。”
在威斯康辛州麦迪逊市的一个提前投票点,62岁的克里斯·格莱德对选举感到筋疲力尽。“我想,等一切都结束了,我会很高兴的。”她边说边把母亲扶上车。
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凯西·赫恩是宾夕法尼亚州兰兹代尔的一名工厂工人。在费城郊区的一个停车场等待前总统特朗普的竞选活动开始时,她对天祈祷:“一切都在上帝手中。”
最后几周的竞选里充斥着真正的暴力事件。
联邦调查局正在调查上周对两个投票箱的纵火袭击事件,现场发现了标有“解放加沙”字样的燃烧装置。当特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦市举行造势集会时,该市的学校“出于充分谨慎”而关闭。在得克萨斯州的圣马科斯,贺锦丽竞选标语被贴上写着“特朗普三K党”的威胁传单,引来了警方调查。在佛罗里达州的一个提前投票点外,一名支持特朗普的18岁男子向两名支持贺锦丽的年长女性挥舞砍刀。
到周日,整个国家似乎都在准备迎接冲击。具体是什么,似乎没有人能确定。
在奥马哈,在“万军之主”的教堂礼拜中,直言不讳地支持特朗普的牧师汉克·库内曼预测,民主党这个“撒谎的政党”将迎来“受报复的时刻”。
在华盛顿,白宫附近的几家餐馆用厚厚的胶合板盖住前窗。
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在北卡罗来纳州的落基山,67岁的弗农·巴特尔把票投给了贺锦丽,他说,最近有人建议他买把枪,为可能发生的事情做好准备。
这位加油站员工说,国会大厦的骚乱“真的改变了一切”。他的妻子卡洛琳也说:“人们已经不是以前的样子了。”
为了寻找美国政治生活中这一时刻的相似之处,历史学家们回顾了美国最黑暗的一些日子,他们经常提到南北战争和20世纪60年代的动荡。
但莱斯大学研究总统问题的历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利说,这一次,民众对选举的极度不信任、阴谋论思维和尖刻的言辞混合在一起,即便在那些时代也是没有的。
特朗普一直在铺垫,如果输了,就会再次声称大选被窃取。
特朗普一直在铺垫,如果输了,就会再次声称大选被窃取。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
共和党人说,他们担心的是国外的不稳定局势、非法移民和选举安全。
共和党人说,他们担心的是国外的不稳定局势、非法移民和选举安全。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
“我们必须相信我们的法律体系,并在一天结束的时候说:一切都会好起来的——不要理会所有的噪音,你的选票很重要,”他说。“每个人都对选举之夜发生的事情感到不安、焦虑和恐惧。我们的国家不应该是这样的。”
共和党人说,他们担心国外的不稳定、非法移民和选举安全。许多人仍然相信特朗普关于2020年大选被窃取的错误说法,并预计这种情况会重演。最近几周,这位前总统一直在做准备,如果他输了,他将再次声称存在大规模的选民欺诈。在宾夕法尼亚州的莱维敦。周五,数十名等待提前投票登记的选民在政府服务大楼外排起了长队。56岁的梅洛迪·罗斯站在入口处附近,为了投票给特朗普,她已经等了七个多小时,就像她在2020年和2016年所做的那样。
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对她来说,利害攸关的是这个国家的根基。罗斯说,如果贺锦丽获胜,她会担心一切,从负担住处到第三次世界大战爆发——特朗普经常警告说,除非他重新入主白宫,否则这场全球冲突几乎是不可避免的。
“我们将失去所有的自由,”她说。“我认为再也不会有选举季了。”
与2020年大选相反,一些共和党人现在毫无根据地担心民主党人不会接受特朗普的胜利。
如果他赢了,“我不知道会发生什么”,宾夕法尼亚州霍舍姆的退休人员苏·维尔奇尼安斯基说,还说民主党是“暴力党”。
民主党人附和贺锦丽以及特朗普的一些前顾问保守派批评者的说法称,他们担心如果特朗普获胜,美国将陷入威权政府。他们指出,特朗普威胁要起诉和监禁他认为反对他的人,包括他称之为“内部敌人”的政治对手,甚至还有选举工作人员。
密歇根州大急流城75岁的伯特·范霍克将当今的语言与“二战”时期的语言进行了比较。
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“看到这一切重现是可怕的——法西斯语言,”贺锦丽的支持者范霍克说,他说自己的家人经历过集中营。谈到特朗普时,他说,“他是法西斯。”
即使是那些仍能感受到贺锦丽竞选初期那种喜悦的民主党人也承认对选举日的感受有些矛盾。
“我很兴奋,”35岁的公关经理玛丽·沃德尔周日在东兰辛参加贺锦丽的集会前说。“同时也觉得胃里翻江倒海。”
选战的激烈分歧已经延伸到美国人生活中最私密的领域,导致社区、家庭甚至婚姻的分裂。在竞选广告和传单中,贺锦丽的支持者试图提醒女性,她们选谁是她们的隐私——甚至不用丈夫知道——这一想法激怒了特朗普的一些右翼支持者。
一些人现在非常害怕与邻居发生冲突,所以他们只私下讨论选举。
两党在选举问题上唯一达成一致的可能是它所造成的压力之大。
威斯康辛州麦迪逊市中心的一个橱窗标志。这个蓝墙州是民主党赢得今年总统选举的关键。
威斯康辛州麦迪逊市中心的一个橱窗标志。这个蓝墙州是民主党赢得今年总统选举的关键。 Todd Heisler/The New York Times
随着选举接近尾声,两位候选人都计划在周一举行多场集会。
随着选举接近尾声,两位候选人都计划在周一举行多场集会。 Erin Schaff/The New York Times
美国心理协会进行的一项年度调查发现,“我们国家的未来”是今年美国人最常见的压力来源。调查显示,超过七成的成年人担心选举结果可能导致暴力,56%的人认为这次选举可能是美国民主的终结。
然而,在焦虑之中,也有人对选举日之后的生活持乐观态度。
在宾夕法尼亚州赫尔希附近的阿鲁加格里尔举行的造势集会上,印第安纳州共和党众议员维多利亚·斯帕兹说,“国家的命运将由伟大的宾夕法尼亚州决定。”49岁的娜塔莉·纳特似乎把这句话放在了心上。
“我非常紧张,”纳特说,她经营着一家非营利教育机构。
但在追问时,她开始反思这个国家的未来。
“这是美利坚合众国;没有比这更好的国家了,”她的脸上露出了释然的笑容。“我不认为这是世界末日,无论发生什么。”

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選前最後催票 川普和賀錦麗誰能拿下賓州?


2024-11-05T05:18:01.528Z
美國總統大選5日正式投票,誰將入主白宮?有分析指,由於這次選情膠著,選舉結果可能需要幾天甚至幾個月才能確定。

(德國之聲中文網)2024年美國總統大選即將在當地時間週二(11月5日)正式投票。力圖重返白宮的共和黨候選人川普和努力延續民主黨執政的賀錦麗4日都選在賓州造勢,展開選前最後催票

這天,川普先抵達另一個搖擺州北卡羅萊納州,接下來前往賓州雷丁、匹茲堡,最後再去密西根州。

在賓州雷丁(Reading)的川普造勢現場,有女性支持者高舉「女性支持川普」的粉色標語。川普喊話支持者:「若我們拿下賓州,我們就全贏了。」他也大讚賓州重要性,「你們建立了這個國家,也將拯救這個國家」,並批評民主黨政府「正在摧毀我們的國家」。

「我已經等了4年了,你們也等了4年⋯⋯相信在經歷了4年的經濟苦難之後,我們將創造世界上最偉大的經濟繁榮。」

賀錦麗這天的行程全在賓州,先後到艾倫敦(Allentown)、斯克蘭頓(Scranton)、雷丁(Reading)、匹茲堡(Pittsburgh)等地趕場造勢,最後則在費城(Philadelphia)參與選前之夜活動,嘉賓包含女神卡卡(Lady Gaga)和歐普拉(Oprah Winfrey)。

賀錦麗在費城向選民承諾,當選後「成為所有美國人的總統」。她說,「選舉還沒結束⋯⋯我們會贏」。

「你準備好表達你的聲音了嗎?我們相信自由嗎?我們相信機會嗎?我們相信美國的承諾嗎?我們準備好為之而戰嗎?」

根據統計,截至選前已累積超過7700萬人提前完成投票。最終民調顯示川普與賀錦麗支持度膠著,美國7個搖擺州:亞利桑那州、佐治亞州、密西根州、內華達州、北卡羅萊納州、賓州和威斯康辛州,成為左右勝負的關鍵。

值得注意的是,多年來,由於人口增長和結構變化,搖擺州名單有所改變,但對於多數美國選民而言,關切的主要議題一直是經濟和通膨。候選人對墮胎權的立場也將在全國選民投票率中發揮重要作用。

DW整理了各搖擺州擁有的選舉人團票數,以及各州選民關注的一系列關鍵問題。

亞利桑納州

選舉人團票數:11張。2020年由民主黨的拜登拿下。

與墨西哥接壤的亞利桑納州,選民最為重視的便是來自拉丁美洲的非法移民問題。儘管賀錦麗在副總統任內的職責之一是從根本解決移民問題,但川普及其支持者大多批評賀錦麗並未完成任務。

除此之外,亞利桑納州也在強化當地製造業。拜登執政期間提出《晶片與科學法案》,帶動台積電等企業前往設廠。

佐治亞州

選舉人團票數:16張。2020年,拜登成為自1992年的柯林頓(Bill Clinton)以後,首位拿下該州的民主黨總統候選人。

佐治亞州約有33%的選民為非裔,是該州比例最高的選民族群之一,可能對於賀錦麗有利。

佐治亞州的大陪審團曾以企圖非法推翻2020年總統選舉結果的相關罪名,起訴川普等19人。但該案當前陷入僵局,不會在此次大選前審判。

密西根州

選舉人團票數:15張。2020年由民主黨的拜登拿下。

密西根州是福特、通用汽車等汽車產業的大本營。近期拜登政府提出針對中國電動車的巨額關稅,欲阻止中國電動車進入美國市場。

然而,今年2月的民主黨初選期間,超過10萬名密州選民選擇了「尚未決定」選項,而非支持拜登,被認為是顯示選民不滿拜登如何因應加薩戰事的態度。後來改由賀錦麗參選總統,民主黨如何重新爭取密州大量阿拉伯裔美國選民支持,成為一大課題。

內華達州

選舉人團票數:6張。2020年由民主黨的拜登拿下。

內華達州位處南部邊境附近,因此移民也是選民重視的議題。當地人口近三分之一是西班牙裔。

內華達州經濟高度依賴旅遊業;自拜登上任以來,其經濟成長速度超過其他搖擺州。不過失業率也是全美最高。

北卡羅萊納州

選舉人團票數:16張;2020年由共和黨的川普拿下。

北卡羅萊納州是最新加入搖擺州名單的州。在拜登7月退出競選之前,川普在北卡州的支持度遙遙領先,如今賀錦麗已能與之匹敵。然而,在過去11次大選中,民主黨候選人在這裡只贏過一次。

過去30年來,北卡羅萊納州的人口結構發生了巨大變化,除了總人口大幅增加,白人比例也從1990年的75%,下滑至現在的60%。

賓州

選舉人團票數:19張。2020年由民主黨的拜登拿下。

擁有最多選舉人團票數的賓州,是川普及賀錦麗在此次選戰的焦點。9月初,川普與賀錦麗之間唯一一場公開辯論會也選擇在此舉行。今年7月,川普在當地的造勢活動上遭到槍擊

賓州因「水力壓裂技術」,成為美國僅次於德州的第二大天然氣產地,這也是兩黨的政治攻防重點。川普極力推動有環保爭議的「水力壓裂法」,而賀錦麗雖然過去對此持強烈反對意見,但在加入拜登執政團隊後態度有軟化。

相关图集:特朗普遇刺受伤 全球震惊

枪击发生之后:美国前总统特朗普7月13日傍晚参加宾州巴特勒小镇的竞选集会。在他开始演讲后几分钟,砰、砰、砰,几声枪声响起。特朗普立即蹲下,特勤局特工冲上讲台保护他。片刻后,特朗普被扶起来,脸上带着鲜血,右耳受了轻伤。
特工冲上台保护:枪声响起的那一刻,可以看到特朗普捂了一下右耳。特勤局特工之后冲上台,将这位前总统按在地上并扑倒在他身上保护他。其他保安人员则负责保卫会场。
子弹打中特朗普右耳:袭击发生后,特勤局特工扶特朗普站起来。他的脸上沾满了血。却高举拳头,发出“战斗、战斗、战斗”(fight)的呼喊。 许多在现场的特朗普支持者高呼“美国,美国”。
受伤后仍斗志昂扬:美联社摄影师埃文·沃奇 (Evan Vucci) 拍摄的特朗普满脸血迹,却高举拳头,表情坚毅,背景是美国国旗的这张照片在社交媒体上迅速传播。许多共和党人认为这是特朗普在这场选战中的决定性时刻。
特朗普遇袭的露天集会现场:一名目击者告诉路透社,枪声响起时,他还以为是放烟花。随后,有人开始尖叫,每个人都很恐慌。场面混乱。美国特勤局之后通报,一名枪手向特朗普集会演讲台开数枪,该枪手已被击毙,集会观众中1人死亡2人受重伤。
惊魂未定:袭击发生后,两名参加集会的人坐在竞选活动场边的栅栏旁,显然受到惊吓。观众席上的一名医生后来对记者表示,他当时对一名头部中弹的观众进行了抢救,但该男子已经没有了脉搏。官方后来证实这名观众死亡。
全球关注:这起被美国联邦调查局定为暗杀未遂的事件迅速成为世界各地媒体的头条新闻。美国总统拜登表示,对特朗普“安全且状况良好”感到欣慰,称“这类暴力在美国无处容身,全国上下必须团结一致同声谴责”。同样在宾夕法尼亚州竞选的副总统哈里斯谴责了这一“令人发指的行为”。
拜登称对特朗普的袭击“太恶心”:特朗普遇刺后,美国总统拜登从特拉华州的海滨别墅返回华盛顿,并在特朗普出院后亲自与他通话。拜登表示他感谢情报部门保护特朗普的安全。谈到这次袭击,他在推特上写道:“这太恶心了,太恶心了。这是我们需要团结这个国家的原因之一。”
警方加强安保:美国总统乔·拜登在内华达州里霍博斯海滩市政厅发表讲话,谴责针对特朗普的袭击事件。警方加强了安保措施。
联邦调查局:没有进一步的威胁:联邦调查局官员公布袭击特朗普枪手是来自宾夕法尼亚州的20岁男子托马斯·马修·克鲁克斯(Thomas Matthew Crooks),该男子已被当场击毙。事发时他使用的是一把AR-15型步枪。联邦调查局7月14日还表示,目前调查认为,这名枪手是独自作案,作案动机还不清楚,“没有理由”认为存在进一步的威胁。
特朗普大厦前加强警备:纽约警察驻守在纽约特朗普大厦前。据《纽约时报》报道,特朗普出院后被送往新泽西州的家中。
1981年以来最严重的政治袭击:宾州发生的特朗普遇袭事件是1981年时任总统里根遇刺后针对一名总统或总统候选人的最严重的袭击事件。历史上有多达9名美国总统曾遭暗杀,其中4人丧生。

威斯康辛州

選舉人團票數:10張。2020年由民主黨的拜登拿下。

威斯康辛州的白人選民佔比位居所有的搖擺州之首。在過去兩次總統大選中,威州也是全國投票率最高的州之一。在2016年及2020年,得威州者,最終也都贏得了大選,是搖擺州的關鍵指標。

根據《紐約時報》與錫耶納學院研究所(New York Times/Siena College)早前民調,截至美國大選前2天為止,賀錦麗與川普在7個搖擺州的支持度差距,都落在3.5%的誤差範圍內。

該民調顯示,賀錦麗在內華達、北卡羅萊納、威斯康辛州有微幅領先,川普在亞利桑那州獲得些微多數支持。兩人在密西根州、佐治亞州和賓州則是勢均力敵。

DW記者Timothy Rooks對此文有貢獻

© 2024年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。



Chris Mason: Not exactly perfect harmony for Tories

PA Newly elected leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, leaves party headquarters in Matthew Parker St, central London, 4 November. PA
Kemi Badenoch leaving Tory party headquarters in London on Monday

“We can turn this around in one term.”

So said the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, to staff at Conservative Campaign Headquarters - in other words, she can win the next general election.

Psychologically, she has to say that and she has to believe it, for why else would someone take on the job of Leader of the Opposition?

Granted, candidates for leader run when they think it is their time – the opportunity may never come around again – but they also have to believe the often thankless slog of opposition is worth it, because turfing out the government is possible.

The arithmetic of doing so – recovering from the Conservatives’ worst ever election defeat and overturning a Himalayan Labour majority – looks a tall order, but so volatile is the electorate you never know.

And so, next for Badenoch, the business of making senior appointments.

Reshuffles are always something of a nightmare for leaders as they are guaranteed deliverers of disappointment and deflated egos as well as sources of smiles and preferment.

But three factors make this one particularly tricky for the new Tory leader.

Firstly, numbers.

There are only 121 Conservative MPs and almost as many shadow ministerial roles to fill, if she wants to man-mark every single minister in government with their own shadow.

One potential solution to this is to ask some junior shadow ministers to shadow more than one brief, but that involves asking them to take on even more work.

And the number is not really 121 because there are those MPs who have said they want to be backbenchers, such as former leader Rishi Sunak, former deputy leader Sir Oliver Dowden, former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and former Home Secretary and leadership contender James Cleverly for a start.

Then there are those who are chairing select committees and so cannot serve on their party’s frontbench.

And then there are those the leadership would not want to appoint in a million years.

Suddenly, the numbers are getting tight and that is before you offer someone a job and they turn it down and so, implicitly at least, threaten not to serve at all – and that has happened too.

Secondly, the power of patronage.

When you are prime minister, you can pick up the phone and offer real power.

Doing stuff, taking decisions, being in government.

When you are leader of the opposition, you pick up the phone and offer the worthy, democratically vital but ultimately much less appealing role of being a shadow minister.

And thirdly, there is Kemi Badenoch’s authority over her parliamentary party.

She was the first choice for leader of just 35% of Conservative MPs and 57% of party members who voted in the leadership race.

A win is a win, but neither endorsement was emphatic.

All three of these factors swirl as she picks her top team.

What to do with the guy who came second is a perennial challenge for new leaders.

In this instance, what to offer Robert Jenrick and what might he accept?

Word reaches me that there was quite the back-and-forth between Badenoch and Jenrick.

He was offered shadow health secretary, shadow housing secretary, shadow work and pensions secretary, and shadow justice secretary, I am told.

He was not offered shadow foreign secretary.

For a little while on Monday, he did not say yes to any of the jobs he was offered, stewing over whether they were appealing, senior enough or might box him in too much politically.

One Tory source, not close to the leadership, told me: “Kemi just doesn’t like Rob. She thinks his whole schtick about her and whether she has any policies has done her lasting damage with the Right and with Reform voters. This is only likely to further unravel.”

Half an hour or so later, those around Jenrick made it known he had accepted becoming shadow justice secretary, that “the party needs to come together” and that “unity could not be more important”.

But they are not exactly a nest of birds singing in perfect harmony.

Perhaps the biggest appointment of all is shadow chancellor, particularly in the aftermath of a budget that has done much to define how Labour appears to want to approach its early years in office.

Mel Stride is a former cabinet minister, a former minister in the Treasury and a former chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, so it is a brief he is familiar with.

And then there is the decision to make Dame Priti Patel the shadow foreign secretary.

Dame Priti is a long-standing and pretty well-known senior Conservative who has served in government at the highest level as home secretary.

But she is also someone who found herself prematurely out of government back in 2017 after it emerged, extraordinarily, that she had run a freelance foreign policy operation while on holiday in Israel.

Baroness May, who was then prime minister, was furious and Dame Priti resigned before she was fired.

One senior Conservative got in touch with me to claim that Badenoch, in appointing Patel, had "destroyed within 48 hours any chance she had of having a respectable foreign policy”.

Ouch.

No one said opposition was easy.

And these are just the criticisms from Badenoch’s own side.

Elon Musk can keep giving $1m to voters, judge rules

Getty Images Elon MuskGetty Images

Elon Musk's political group has been deciding who receives $1m (£772,000) in its election giveaway, and not been choosing winners randomly, a lawyer representing the billionaire said on Monday.

One of Donald Trump's biggest supporters in the election, Musk has offered the sum to registered voters in swing states through his America PAC, in what many believed was a lottery-style contest.

Philadelphia District Attorney Lawrence Krasner called the giveaway "an illegal lottery" when he sued Musk and the group last month.

But Musk's lawyer Chris Gober told a Pennsylvania judge that the group selects the recipients, according to media reports. The judge later ruled that the giveaway can continue.

Common Pleas Court Judge Angelo Foglietta did not immediately give a reason for the ruling, made a few hours after the hearing, according to the Associated Press.

America PAC has been awarding $1m to a voter in one of the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina each day in the leadup to Election Day.

Before the court hearing, the group announced a man named Joshua in Arizona was awarded the money for Monday.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, which Musk owns, the group added: "Every day until Election Day, a person who signs will be selected to earn $1m as a spokesperson for America PAC".

Gober told the court that America PAC has already determined the final recipient who will be announced on Election Day and who is from Michigan, US media reported.

“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” Gober said, according to the Associated Press. “We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”

But when the world's richest man unveiled the giveaway last month, many believed it was a random drawing for registered voters who signed a petition supporting the First and Second Amendments of the US Constitution.

“We are going to be awarding $1m randomly to people who have signed the petition, every day, from now until the election," Musk told a campaign event.

A few days later, the US Justice Department warned that the group could be breaking election laws, which forbid paying people to register to vote. Krasner's office then sued to stop it.

Musk has been aggressively campaigning for Trump in swing states across the country, and his committee has been pushing hard in Pennsylvania, where polls suggest Trump is in a tie with Vice-President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.

A lawyer in Krasner's office told Reuters that Gober's comments in court are "a complete admission of liability".

During the hearing, prosecutors played a video where Musk, who is also the chief executive of SpaceX, said that "all we ask" is that the winners serve as spokespeople for the group, Reuters reported.

But Chris Young, the director of America PAC, said in court that the recipients are screened and must have values aligned with the group, US media reported.

Those who receive the money sign non-disclosure agreements that block them from publicly discussing the terms of their contracts, according to Reuters.

Musk did not attend Monday's hearing.

Barcelona hit by new flood as rescuers search Valencia basement car park

Reuters Brown water can be seen flooding the entrance of a car park, with debris including wooden pallets and plastic packaging floating in it.Reuters
Divers have concentrated their search for missing bodies in garages and a multi-storey car park in the town of Aldaia

Spanish rescuers are focusing their search for missing people on underground garages and a multi-storey car park following last week's devastating floods in Valencia.

The death toll after a year's worth of rain fell in parts of the region last week now stands at 217.

A car park in the nearby town of Aldaia capable of holding thousands of vehicles, has become central to the search, but rescue teams have reportedly not yet found any bodies.

It comes as Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) placed part of the north-eastern Catalonia region on red alert for torrential rain, with its capital Barcelona experiencing flooding on Monday morning.

The car park at the Bonaire shopping centre in Aldaia was inundated during flash floods last week.

According to Spanish news agency Europa Press, police have confirmed that search teams did not locate any victims in the first 50 vehicles inspected at the site.

EPA-EFE/REX/Shuttershock Firefighters and rescue divers in uniform stand outside an underground car park.EPA-EFE/REX/Shuttershock
Divers are searching a car park in Aldaia which was inundated by the flash floods

The storm caught many victims in their vehicles on roads and in underground spaces such as car parks, tunnels and garages where rescue operations are particularly difficult.

On Monday, the family of a missing British couple in their 70s confirmed they had been found dead in their car days after flash flooding hit the region.

There has been anger at a perceived lack of warning and insufficient support from authorities after the floods.

On Sunday, the king and queen of Spain were pelted with mud and other objects by angry protesters during a visit to the town of Paiporta - one of the worst-affected in Valencia.

Objects were also thrown at Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who was quickly evacuated.

The Civil Guard has opened an investigation into the chaotic scenes, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told public broadcaster TVE.

He blamed "marginal groups" for instigating the violence where mud spattered the monarchs' face and clothes.

Video shows angry crowd throwing objects at Spanish king on Sunday

Local authorities in Valencia have extended travel restrictions for another two days to facilitate the work of the emergency services, cancelled school classes and urged people to work from home.

In Catalonia, train services have been suspended due to adverse weather conditions, while footage shared online appears to show vehicles submerged in floodwater on roads.

Novel way to beat dengue: Deaf mosquitoes stop having sex

Getty Images A mosquito sits on a person's hand, ready to take a blood mealGetty Images

Scientists believe they have found a quirky way to fight mosquito-spread diseases such as dengue, yellow fever and Zika - by turning male insects deaf so they struggle to mate and breed.

Mosquitoes have sex while flying in mid-air and the males rely on hearing to chase down a female, based on her attractive wingbeats.

The researchers did an experiment, altering a genetic pathway that male mosquitoes use for this hearing. The result - they made no physical contact with females, even after three days in the same cage.

Female mosquitoes are the ones that spread diseases to people, and so trying to prevent them having babies would help reduce overall numbers.

The team from the University of California, Irvine studied Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which spread viruses to around 400 million people a year.

They closely observed the insects' aerial mating habits - that can last between a few seconds to just under a minute - and then figured out how to disrupt it using genetics.

They targeted a protein called trpVa that appears to be essential for hearing.

In the mutated mosquitoes, neurons normally involved in detecting sound showed no response to the flight tones or wingbeats of potential mates.

The alluring noise fell on deaf ears.

In contrast, wild (non-mutant) males were quick to copulate, multiple times, and fertilised nearly all the females in their cage.

The researchers from the University of California, Santa Barbara, who have published their work in the journal PNAS, said the effect of the gene knock-out was "absolute", as mating by deaf males was entirely eliminated.

Dr Joerg Albert, from the University of Oldenburg in Germany, is an expert on mosquito mating and I asked him what he made of the research.

He said attacking sense of sound was a promising route for mosquito control, but it needed to be studied and managed.

"The study provides a first direct molecular test, which suggests that hearing is indeed not only important for mosquito reproduction but essential.

"Without the ability of males to hear - and acoustically chase - female mosquitoes might become extinct."

Another method being explored is releasing sterile males in areas where there are pockets of mosquito-spread diseases, he added.

Although mosquitoes can carry diseases, they are an important part of the food chain - as nourishment for fish, birds, bats and frogs, for example - and some are important pollinators.

Plans to ban smoking outside schools and hospitals

Getty Images Three people are standing together outdoors - one woman has a cigarette in her hand while the other two men are blowing tobacco smoke out of their mouthsGetty Images

The government has announced plans to make it illegal to smoke in children's playgrounds and outside schools and hospitals in England, with some places also becoming vape-free.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, it is already an offence to smoke on NHS hospital grounds.

The Tobacco and Vapes Bill would also make it impossible for anyone currently aged 15 or under to buy cigarettes - something the previous government had planned - and give more powers to restrict vape flavours, displays and packaging.

A ban on the sale of single-use disposable vapes from next June in England and Wales has already been announced.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the government was taking "bold action" to create a smoke-free generation, "clamp down on kids getting hooked on nicotine through vapes" and protect the vulnerable from the dangers of second-hand cigarette smoke.

Plans include extending the indoor smoking ban to certain outdoor settings, such as schools and hospitals, to protect children and the most vulnerable.

But the government has rowed back on plans to ban smoking in gardens of pubs and bars in England.

It said it was considering outdoor vaping bans too in some places.

The proposals will all be open to public debate over the coming months.

Under the bill, shops would have to obtain a licence in order to sell tobacco, vape and nicotine products in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

This would mean on-the-spot fines of £200 for retailers selling unregulated products or to people aged under 18.

A registration system for retailers selling these products has been in place in Scotland since 2017.

Smoking puts huge pressure on the NHS. It kills 80,000 people a year in the UK and is responsible for one in four of all deaths from cancer.

It also increases the risk of many illnesses including heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, asthma and dementia.

The government said smoking also cost the economy £18bn a year in lost productivity, with smokers a third more likely to be off work sick.

Health charities have welcomed the bill, which will be subject to consultation for the next six months.

Action on Smoking and Health said it would help create a country where young people would never start smoking.

“It is important to have the debate about how we will protect children and vulnerable people from the harms of second-hand smoke," said the charity's chair, Prof Nick Hopkinson.

He added: "A key next step is for the government to set out further how it will help the UK’s six million smokers to quit. This will require a properly funded plan, paid for by a levy on tobacco companies.”

Dr Charmaine Griffiths, British Heart Foundation chief executive, said she welcomed the government's commitment to protect children and vulnerable people from second-hand smoke in schools, playgrounds and hospital grounds.

"We also welcome measures to make vaping less appealing to young people," she said.

Shoplifting levels 'unacceptable', inquiry finds

Getty Images Shoppers walk past a retail clothing storeGetty Images
There were more than 440,000 incidents of shop theft recorded in one month alone this year

Shoplifting is at "unacceptable" levels and not being tackled properly, a Lords inquiry has found.

The crime is seriously underreported and the problem is so urgent police forces need to take "immediate action", according to the House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee.

It says retailers need to be able to report crimes more easily, more funding is needed for offender rehabilitation, and regulations should be introduced to make it more difficult to sell stolen goods online anonymously.

The Home Office said it was making assaults on shopworkers a criminal offence and deploying "thousands" of police officers dedicated to tackling shoplifting.

The Lords committee held an inquiry into tackling shoplifting in which it heard evidence from police chiefs, retailers and industry experts in May and September.

In a letter published today, it said there were more than 443,000 incidents of shop theft recorded by police in March 2024 – the highest ever since records began 20 years ago.

But they were "a drop in the ocean" when compared with likely real figures estimated at 17 million annually – which has "devastating consequences for businesses and families".

Shop theft has evolved from "individualised offending to relentless, large-scale, organised operations accompanied by unprecedented levels of violence", it added.

Tracey Robertson, co-owner of Paw Prints – a small chain of pet shops across Yorkshire – says shoplifting costs her business around £8,000 a year.

"It’s a financial impact on a family business. It’s bad in the fact that it affects the staff that work for us because sometimes it’s aggressive and violent," she said.

Pet-shop owner Tracey Robertson on the store floor next to a cage displaying a parrot
Tracey Robertson, who owns a small chain of pet shops in Yorkshire, says shoplifting costs her around £8,000 a year

The committee supported schemes like Project Pegasus - a partnership between retailers and police to tackle organised shoplifting gangs - but said there needs to be a strategy to deal with local prolific offenders too.

"The scale of the shop theft problem within England and Wales is totally unacceptable and action, like that under way in the Pegasus scheme, is vital and urgent," said Lord Foster of Bath, chair of the committee.

The committee found there is a widespread perception that shop theft is not treated seriously by the police which "risks undermining confidence in the police and wider criminal justice system".

It said shoplifting cost the retail sector nearly £2bn last year – which resulted in price rises impacting individuals, families and communities.

"We acknowledge the pressures on police resources, but we believe that the urgency of the situation relating to shop theft requires immediate action within existing police staffing levels," the letter said.

It has made a series of recommendations to the government which it says would "help tackle the problem and keep the public and our economy safer".

These include:

  • Phasing out the use of the outdated term "shoplifting" which serves to trivialise the severity of the offence
  • Developing improved reporting systems to enable retailers to report crime to the police quickly and easily
  • Increasing funding to community-based reoffending and rehabilitation initiatives
  • Introducing regulations to make it more difficult to sell stolen goods on online marketplaces anonymously
  • Introducing regulations and best practice guidance for the use of facial recognition technology by private companies

Shop owner Tracey Robertson believes the recommendations do not go far enough and wants to see much tougher sentences for repeat offenders.

Professor of criminology Emmeline Taylor, who gave evidence to the inquiry, said the committee recommendations are "far-reaching" and understand the multiple root causes of shop theft.

"If adopted by the police, the industry and the government it will certainly do a huge amount to begin to turn the tide on the tsunamic of shop theft that has impacted the retail sector across the UK."

The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) said it welcomed the report which further highlights the significant impact retail crime has on its victims.

"We are doing all we can to reduce thefts and pursue offenders, especially those prolific and habitual offenders, who cause misery within the community," said Chief Constable Amanda Blakeman, the NPCC’s lead for acquisitive crime.

The Home Office said it understands the "devastating impact" of shop theft has on communities.

A spokesperson added: "We are taking immediate action through our commitment to scrap the £200 shop theft threshold, and making assaults on shop workers a criminal offence.

"We will also put thousands more dedicated police officers on our streets, and establish a Retail Crime Forum for retailers to confidently implement tactics against shop theft."

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