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王星被拐骗案:电诈犯罪再成关注焦点

演员王星遭拐骗至缅泰边境后失联,日前已经获救,预期很快回家。但是,电诈园区犯罪活动并没有就此减缓,而官方打压其他被困人员家属上网求救,引发公众关注。

新年刚过,1月5日的一则求救消息在网上迅速传开。透过社媒帐号“失眠爹地”发出的自我介绍是演员王星女友嘉嘉的长文说,演员王星搭乘飞机赴泰国拍戏,北京时间1月3号在泰缅边境失联。文章还说,她与王星的弟弟在过去三天竭力推动,但无进展。现不得不上网扩散声量,寻求救助。

这则令人不安的消息,引发广泛关注,网民们追踪着事态的发展。1月7日,泰国当局表示,已经在缅甸找到王星。王星的女友嘉嘉也透过社媒证实,已经见到王星本人,并上网两人牵手照片。王星本人获救后向外界表示,他本以为是去泰国拍戏,结果被骗到电诈园区。并披露被关在有五十名中国人的建筑物,被剃光头发,被迫练习打字等。

王星预期近日回国,这个案子似乎尘埃落定。但是电诈泛滥问题并没有就此在公众视野中消失。有网上留言问,王星被救了,那另外那五十名中国人呢?社媒帐号“李老师不是你老师”披露一则消息说,王星失联获救,1月7日,一个约五百人左右的缅甸被困人员家属互助群,用在线文档统计被困人员信息,目前已有六百多位家属填写信息。后来这份文档被称作“星星回家计划”。据传最新消息,微博话题#495人互助群正在统计缅甸被困人员信息 “已经被微博封禁。

经济不振,年轻人受高薪诱惑,容易上当

王星事件折射中国经济问题。中国近年来经济不景气,打工难,赚钱难是很多年轻人无法逃避的现实。“到东南亚打工赚钱”等高薪招聘广告,对很多人来讲,非常有诱惑力。在这种情况下,就很容易受骗上当。王星女友介绍王星是看在一个影艺圈群里看到广告,应征的。多家东南亚港台媒体报道,王星是同演艺圈内的一位叫做“颜十六”的艺人联系,奔赴泰国的。据信,“颜十六”本名“颜文磊”也曾使用其他化名。是江苏连云港人。在家乡有个快餐店。他的父亲和妻儿都住在老家。有村民还说,村里人知道他在外边拍戏,王星失联前一个多月,还有人看见他回家。颜文磊的社媒自我介绍,出生于1987年,另外还包括“颜氏天艺影业有限公司”和 “内蒙古艺术学院”两则信息。有网民发社媒截图显示,颜文磊说他的微信被盗,前一个月的事情,跟他没有关系等。另有报道说王星绑架背后的团伙“阿波罗辉煌”公司的老板,来自广东的华人已被抓获。

越来越多的信息流出,网民们对诈骗拐卖其中的黑暗,道德败坏,多有谴责。也有提问。就此旅居美国加州的法律从业人士郑存柱对自由亚洲电台表示,邓小平奉行的黑猫白猫,抓住老鼠就是好猫的说法,对中国的社会道德产生负面影响。目前居住在加拿大温哥华的李建峰,出国前曾担任南方省份一法院法官。他在来加拿大之前,曾经在泰国住了两年多。也曾参与营救被拐卖的受害人。他说有的行骗人是被骗去的,有的是自愿以”行骗为生“的,中国社会道德滑坡程度,令人难以置信。

2015年11月10日,从海外被引渡回国受审的电信诈骗犯罪嫌疑人抵达上海机场。
2015年11月10日,从海外被引渡回国受审的电信诈骗犯罪嫌疑人抵达上海机场。
(路透社资料图片)

电诈与人口贩卖危害全世界

自从王星案爆出后,缅北电诈园区,东南亚人口贩卖问题,也随之成为人们关注的焦点。

不少媒体披露的实地照片显示,电诈园区看上去规模庞大,里面有旅馆,超市等齐全实施,周边有高墙铁丝网,还有门卫和持枪的保镖等。这些是真的吗?最近中国官煤报道说,公安部长打击缅北电诈园方面虽然取得进展,但指出目前境外电诈窝点规模庞大,功防对抗不断升级。这个信息,从侧面证实,缅北电诈犯罪问题非常严重。国际刑警组织不久前在一次简报会上指出,在东南亚引发的地区性犯罪威胁,已经演变成全球人口贩卖危机。网络诈骗受害者多达数百万。

网上很多评论说,这些诈骗集团背后与中共高层官员有交集。去年美国《华盛顿邮报》发表长篇调查报道指,缅甸电诈集团背后,有缅甸军政府和中国政府的影子。

中国过去几十年的经济发展,国力增强,推动“一带一路”对世界的影响无法忽视,特别是在东南亚。习近平曾提出中国要引领世界。王星案爆出后,有网民跟帖置评,中国怎可引领世界?

责编:安克 网编:洪伟

© The Royal Thai Police via AP

中国演员王星(右一)遭拐骗至缅泰边境后失联,日前已经获救,但是电诈园区犯罪活动并没有就此减缓。

夜话中南海 | 盘点那些陆续落马的省政协主席们(五)

本月6日,中共二十届中纪委召开了它的四中全会,习近平在会上再次喊出了他12年前就开始年年喊的“三不腐”口号(不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐”),也再次放出”坚决打好这场攻坚战、持久战、总体战“的狠话。

讽刺的是,习近平在这次讲话里先说了“新时代以来……反腐败斗争力度之大前所未有,成效有目共睹”。 话锋一转,又不得不承认“当前反腐败斗争形势仍然严峻复杂。腐败存量尚未清除,增量还在持续发生,铲除腐败滋生土壤和条件任务仍然艰巨繁重”。

所谓“腐败存量尚未清除,增量还在持续发生”,前一句应该是指“倒查30年”的工作依然还是任重道远,后一句应该是指“十八大以来不收敛不收手”的情况愈演愈烈。

在笔者过去文章中追踪报道过的所有在习近平登基之后陆续被查处的中共腐败官员中,十八大以后既“收手”也“收敛”的只有一个,那就是曾经担任内蒙古自治区政协主席,而后是在山西省政协主席和十九届中央候补委员位置上落马的李佳。

2022年8月26日中央纪委国家监委网站刊发消息说:“经中共中央批准,中央纪委国家监委对第十九届中央候补委员,山西省政协原党组书记、主席李佳严重违纪违法问题进行了立案审查调查。”

请注意,这里说的是“严重违纪违法”。其中严重违纪的部分是“党性原则缺失,组织观念淡薄,纪律意识不强,在党内选举中搞变相拉票等非组织活动,违规打探党风廉政意见情况”;严重违法的部分是“违反中央八项规定精神,收受私营企业主所送贵重礼品”。中纪委通报中也特别强调了他李佳不但是“严重违反党的组织纪律、廉洁纪律和工作纪律”, 而且这些严重违纪行为本身也“构成职务违法”。

但是,就是因为李佳的“严重违纪违法”行为都是发生在习近平登基的十八大前,“且其能够配合组织工作,如实说明本人违纪违法问题,主动上交违纪违法所得”,所以中共当局就决定“按照惩前毖后、治病救人的原则,对其可予从轻处理”。

轻到什么程度呢?“经中央纪委常委会会议研究并报中央政治局会议审议,决定给予李佳同志撤销党内职务处分;由国家监委给予其政务撤职处分,降为副省部级;按规定调整其享受的待遇;终止其党的十九大代表资格;收缴其违纪违法所得。给予其撤销党内职务的处分,待召开中央委员会全体会议时予以追认。”

不难看出,因为严重违纪行为都是发生在习近平登基的十八大之前的理由只给他李佳一个撤销党内职务和行政降为副部级的处分,那是中共中央纪委和国家监委的权限。但是,其”涉嫌职务违法“的行为,即使就只是“收受私营企业主所送贵重礼品”一项,也是应该通过司法程序来根据所收受贵重礼品的贵重程序决定李佳该当何罪,就算是他李佳的“职务违法”应该被认为是“罪行轻微”,那么无论是判处轻刑、缓刑甚至再轻到“免予起诉”或者“免予刑事处罚”程度的决定,都应该是由检察机关和法院做出。和犯罪行为是发生在十八大之前还是十八大之后毛关系没有。所以说,习近平当局对李佳“问题“的处理,是彻头彻尾的以党代法、以纪代法。

介绍完李佳,就不能不介绍中共政权近十几年来陆续落马的所有省级政协主席中唯一的一个仅仅是被免去政协主席和全国政协委员职务之后还能继续享受正省部级退休待遇的前山东省政协主席孙淑义。

我们在本专栏的前一篇文章介绍去年落马的湖南省政协前主席李微微时,也介绍了当年在司法部长位置上被开除党籍的吴爱英。吴爱英调京工作前的职务是山东省委副书记兼省政协主席,而孙淑义就是吴爱英的山东省政协主席职务的接班人。接班时间是2004年1月。

2010年3月1日,中共各大官媒统一报道了中共全国政协的有关决定,说是“根据中共中央决定,政协山东省委员会常务委员会已免去孙淑义山东省政协主席职务。孙淑义本人提出申请,辞去第十一届全国政协委员。经政协第十一届全国委员会常务委员会第八次会议讨论,同意孙淑义辞去第十一届全国政协委员。”

其实当时的全国政协发布的这则消息漏掉了一个细节,那就是此前的2009年12月孙淑义在被免去山东省政协主席职务的同时,也被撤消了山东省政协委员资格。

当年孙淑义接班吴爱英之前,已经担任了9年时间的山东省委常委兼济南市委书记。期间和时任济南市委副书记段义和亲密无间,情同手足。

2007年7月9日段义和指使、安排他人放置烈性炸药,将比自己年轻整30岁,截止当时已经被其包养了长达13年之久,并利用职权将其从一个农村户口的县城招待所服务员提拔为济南市国土局科长的情妇,当时正驾驶自家轿车行驶在济南市最繁华地段的柳海平女士当场炸得身首异处,并致伤两名路人。这就是至今还令无数中国人记忆犹新的济南“7·9”爆炸案。

案件很快告破。当月16日上午,段义和被罢免济南市人大主任职务。此前两天,山东省委常委会已经决定开除段义和党籍。

当年8月6日,山东省淄博市中级法院一审公开开庭审理了淄博市检察院指控被告人段义和花钱指使的两名爆炸凶手的故意杀人罪以及段义和的受贿罪和巨额财产来源不明罪一案,并于8月9日判处段义和及爆炸凶手之一死刑;另一爆炸凶手被判处无期徒刑。三人上诉后被二审宣布维持原判。

2007年9月5日,段义和在济南被执行死刑 。

孙淑义落马后,先是有山东地方媒体发文猜测他的落马与段义和有关,然后几家大外宣媒体也八哥学舌。但孙淑义的落马发生在段义和伏法的两年三个月之后。时间上就对不上号。

事实上孙淑义的落马就是因为早年也曾担任过近5年时间山东省委常委兼济南市委书记的时任中共中央纪委书记贺国强的一句话。

却原来,这位孙主席在2009年3月的全国两会期间被一位与会地方媒体记者问道如何看待官员财产公示制度的问题时一时语塞,支支吾吾半晌后,居然恼羞成怒地反问记者:“为什么不公布老百姓的财产?那些企业老板的利润为什么不向工人公布?"

此事由新华社记者写成“内参”后被贺国强读到,贺国强一个电话直接打到时任山东省委书记姜异康处,质问山东怎么选出了个“政治水平如此低下”的省政协主席?于是山东省委立刻启动了对孙淑义的调查,把两年多前随着段义和的伏法陆续被查的几个济南副市级官员与孙淑义的关系过了一遍筛子,虽然也查出了孙淑义曾经接受下级官员送礼的问题,但只是烟酒之类,实难构成受贿罪 。于是山东省委便做出由山东政协出面给予孙淑义免职处理和党内给予严重警告处分的建议并得到了中央的同意。结果,这位孙主席等于是被按正省部级待遇提前退休(时年64岁)。所以说,孙淑义是中共政坛里陆续落马的所有省政协主席里受处分最轻的一个,比前面介绍的降为副部级待遇的前内蒙古和山西的政协主席李佳所受的处分还轻。

我们本专栏前面的四篇文章一一盘点了刚刚过去的2024年一年之内陆续落马的四名省政协主席。依序为4月2日被官宣落马的时任江西省政协主席唐一军、7月29日被官宣落马的湖南省政协前主席李微微、10月8日被官宣落马的宁夏回族自治区政协前主席齐同生,以及12月16日被官宣落马的山西省在任政协主席吴存荣。

在如上4人落马之前,2023年落马的正省部级贪官里,省政协主席只有1个,即我们过去文章中已经专门介绍过的于2023年11月29日被中纪委宣布接受审查调查的陕西省政协前主席韩勇。在韩勇落马之前,2022年也是只有一名省政协主席落马,即我们前面介绍的时任山西省政协主席、十九届中央候补委员李佳。

李佳落马之前的2021年,也是只有一个省政协主席落马,即当年2月21日被中纪委第十二监察调查室主任指挥到场警员直接从贵州省委慰问老干部的会场上当众抓捕押送北京的王富玉。此时的王富玉已经从贵州省政协主席位置上退休三年了。

这个王富玉当年政治起家的地点是中共河北省委。他1979年年中被从冶金工业部华北冶金矿建公司组织部科员位置上平调河北省委组织部科员,三年后被当时的新任河北省委书记高扬从北京带去的秘书韩立成相中,将其调到省委办公厅,从此成为高扬的“二秘”。一年多后韩立成被高扬安排下放担任保定市委副书记、书记,王富玉升格为高扬的大秘,官至副处级。

1985年5月,高扬调离,时任河北省委副书记邢崇智被扶正,王富玉很快也被安排下放镀金,从获鹿县委副书记、县长、县委书记升至石家庄市副市长。

1991年7月王富玉被跨省交流至海南省,先任海口市副市长,后升任琼山市委书记、市长,官至正厅级。

1998年2月,王富玉终于熬成副省级,被提升为海南省委常委、三亚市委书记、三亚警备区党委第一书记。此时的王富玉还不满46岁,可谓年富力强,踌躇满志。

接下来在海南的几年里,王富玉被再升了半格,以海南省委副书记身份先兼任三亚市委书记,再改兼海口市委书记。

这段时间里,正赶上海南大开发的“好政策”,有当地干部评价王富玉是“造市高手”,因为他“造”了南北两个市——三亚和海口。在海口,他上任不到一年,辖区扩大了十倍,海口由此成为海南当时的唯一一个百万人口的城市。

在海南担任副省级干部近7年时间后,王富玉再被跨省交流,于2004年12月被中组部任命为贵州省委副书记。

当时的贵州省省长是比王富玉年长10岁的石秀诗。所以王富玉一到贵州,就被贵州省委省府的干部们相信是被中组部安排的省长接班人。没成想王富玉在省委副书记位置上坐了一年半之后,石秀诗到是因为年龄原因被安排退居二线职务了,但省长接班人却不是王富玉,而是被中组部从广东省空降过去的时任广东省委常委兼广州市委书记林树森。

林树森比王富玉年长6岁,所以当时王富玉在贵州省委办公厅的几个手下都安慰他说“王书记您年轻,还有机会”。

但是,林树森到任贵州省长的第二年就被安排从十六届中央候补委员升格为十七届中央委员,而王富玉连个候补委员都没有捞上。

中共十七大召开三年后,时任贵州省委书记石宗源和省长林树森双双卸任,分别由比王富玉年长两岁的栗战书和比王富玉年轻一岁的赵克志接任。自此,王富玉在贵州省就地升任正省级实职的念想彻底落空。

2012年4月,离60岁生日还有4个月的王富玉被免去贵州省委常委、贵州省委副书记职务,改任贵州省政协专职副主席,几个月后又被任命为省政协党组副书记。不过呢,中组部和栗战书显然是在让王富玉退出贵州省委常委会的同时,已经计划好了犒赏他一届省政协主席。所以,王富玉在省政协副主席位置上只坐了不到一年时间,就在省政协换届时被就地扶正。被他接替的王正福当时已年过65岁,被安排改任中央第九巡视组组长。

转眼过了5年,2018年1月贵州省政协换届,已经年过65岁的王正富把省政协主席职务交棒给了时任贵州省委常委兼组织部长刘晓凯。

2021年2月21日,中纪委网站发布王富玉因涉嫌严重违纪违法正在接受审查调查的消息。后续的内容,留待本专栏的下篇文章里与另外一个落马的贵州省政协主席黄瑶一并分析介绍。

(本文仅代表作者个人观点立场)

© 路透社

习近平再次喊出了12年前就开始年年喊的“三不腐”口号(不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐”)。

💾

Gaza war death toll could be significantly higher, researchers say

Reuters Mourners crouched with the covered body of a Palestinian killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza (03/01/25)Reuters

The Palestinian death toll from the war in Gaza could be substantially higher than official figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, research published in the Lancet medical journal suggests.

The UK-led study covered the first nine months of the war, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on 7 October 2023.

It used data from the ministry, an online survey of relatives reporting fatalities, and obituaries. It estimated that up until 30 June 2024, 64,260 Palestinians died from traumatic injury, meaning an under-reporting of deaths by 41%.

The Palestinian death toll has been a source of dispute, though the UN treats the health ministry's figures as reliable.

The ministry's figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians though a recent report by the UN said the majority of verified victims over a six month period were women and children.

Israel says Hamas's figures cannot be trusted. In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists", though it is unclear how it arrived at this figure. The IDF insists it only targets combatants and tries to avoid or minimise civilian casualties.

Israel is not allowing international journalists from media organisations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making it difficult to verify the facts on the ground.

The team behind the latest study used a statistical method called "capture-recapture", a technique which has been used to evaluate deaths in other conflicts.

Researchers looked at how many people turned up repeatedly in different attempts to count deaths. The level of overlap between those lists suggested that the number of deaths directly caused by traumatic injury in the conflict could be significantly higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health.

Gaza's health ministry issues updated death tolls from the war daily. It compiles the figures from deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members, and deaths from "reliable media reports".

The report in the Lancet estimated a death toll between 55,298–78,525 people, compared to 37,877 reported by the health ministry.

The report's figures could be meaningfully higher or lower depending on the technical details of the analysis.

For example, identifying deaths by "traumatic injury" in each set of data could be tricky. Getting it wrong could push the study's estimates higher or lower.

The research also said 59% of those killed for whom data on sex and age was available were women, children and the elderly.

The war in Gaza was triggered by Hamas's attack in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken back to Gaza as hostages. Israel launched a massive military offensive on Gaza in response.

The health ministry says 46,006 people, most of them civilians, have been killed by the Israeli campaign.

事实快查|旧图片误用、消防局长采访被错传…美国野火灾情相关假讯息之二

美国加州洛杉矶7日起发生多起野火灾情,火势迅速扩大,至今持续延烧,逾十万居民被迫撤离。这几天,中文网络流传大量有关洛杉矶野火的消息与影像,亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab, AFCL)将就监测到的中文媒体和社交媒体中的不实或误导内容,持续发布查核报告

“电线杆烧断”照片是本次野火灾情吗?

查核结果:误导

这张电线杆分为两半的照片,出现在凤凰网资讯、“百度”、“网易”1月9日刊登的文章,也是X“蓝勾勾”中文用户1月9日分享的其中一张照片。这张照片中的浮水印写着“firevalleyphoto”,而根据上述平台文章与社媒用户的文字叙述,这是近期洛杉矶野火主要火场帕利塞兹(Palisades)的景象。

近日网上流传一张电线杆分为两半的照片,配文写是近期洛杉矶野火的主要火场帕利塞兹(Palisades),但这张照片去年9月已出现在社媒上。
近日网上流传一张电线杆分为两半的照片,配文写是近期洛杉矶野火的主要火场帕利塞兹(Palisades),但这张照片去年9月已出现在社媒上。
(凤凰网资讯、X截图,AFCL标注)

但AFCL以图反搜后,随即找到X帐号“firevalleyphoto”于2024年9月中发布的同一张照片,图片说明为桥梁山火(Bridge Fire)。桥梁山火是2024年9月初在洛杉矶周围爆发的3场失控野火之一。

前述平台文章与社媒用户误用过往事件的影像,传播了误导信息。

洛杉矶消防局长宣称“主要任务不是应对火灾”?

查核结果:误导

X用户以中文发帖(转发者:1,2),文字叙述是“请看这位新任洛杉矶消防局长兼DEI员工,面对采访媒体她公开承认,她的主要任务不是应对火灾而是招聘女性,加LGBTQ+”。这则帖子并附上一段1分多钟的视频,前48秒看起来是洛杉矶市消防局长克劳利(Kristin Crowley)的受访内容,画面右下方的媒体标志可知,影像出处为国家广播公司洛杉矶分台(NBCLA)。

社媒用户传播一段视频,称洛杉矶市消防局长受访公开承认,其主要任务不是应对火灾而是招聘女性与LGBTQ+。
社媒用户传播一段视频,称洛杉矶市消防局长受访公开承认,其主要任务不是应对火灾而是招聘女性与LGBTQ+。
(X截图)

但从视频49秒起,画面变成野火景象、搭配男声旁白,这名男子说:“这位新的同性恋洛杉矶消防局长说,我的主要工作是招聘女性及同性恋人士⋯⋯”。紧接着在视频1分钟处,出现一名男子讲话,画面的左下角显示“INFO WARS”、右下方写着“The Alex Jones show”。亚历克斯·琼斯(Alex Jones)因经常传播虚假信息和毫无证据的指控而知名,他创办的Infowar网站也因为传播假信息和诽谤被判决巨额赔款,正面临破产

AFCL找到NBCLA于2022年3月播出的克劳利受访视频,根据这段视频以及克劳利的自介,她确实重视组织的多元与共融,但并没有在采访中说出“她的主要任务不是应对火灾而是招聘女性”这句话。部分社媒用户扭曲了克劳利的谈话内容,并传播误导信息。

亚洲事实查核实验室(Asia Fact Check Lab)针对当今复杂媒体环境以及新兴传播生态而成立。我们本于新闻专业主义,提供专业查核报告及与信息环境相关的传播观察、深度报道,帮助读者对公共议题获得多元而全面的认识。读者若对任何媒体及社交软件传播的信息有疑问,欢迎以电邮afcl@rfa.org寄给亚洲事实查核实验室,由我们为您查证核实。

亚洲事实查核实验室更详细的介绍请参考本文。我们另有X、脸书、IG频道,欢迎读者追踪、分享、转发。X这边请进:中文@asiafactcheckcn;英文:@AFCL_engFB在这里IG也别忘了

© AFCL制图

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A Major Challenge for Trump’s Agenda: A Mercurial Coach Calling the Plays

The president-elect has admonished Republicans to stay united around his ambitious domestic policy plans. But his track record with Congress is one of abrupt turnabouts and last-minute blowups.

© Doug Mills/The New York Times

President-elect Donald J. Trump has mostly equivocated and sent mixed signals as Republicans try to figure out how to structure and sequence his long list of priorities so it can make it through Congress.

In North Carolina, Republicans Try to Reverse a Supreme Court Election Loss

An incumbent Democrat narrowly won re-election to the state’s highest court. But the Republican-controlled court is considering an unusual protest from her challenger that could flip the result.

© Melissa Melvin-Rodriguez/The Charlotte Observer, via Associated Press

Volunteers fed ballots into machines in Charlotte, N.C. in November, as officials held a recount in North Carolina’s Supreme Court election.

专家:西藏地震提示该地区建水坝风险大

西藏本周发生的6.8级地震造成126人死亡,有四座水库受损。路透社周五(1月10日)引用专家的话说,这凸显出亚洲的两个大国中国和印度在地震多发的世界屋脊大肆建设水电的风险。

喜马拉雅地区大约有68座主要水坝,意图利用高海拔湖泊和河流的落差发电。另外还有101个水坝正在规划或建设中。但此次地震引起研究人员对该地区水坝所面临的地震风险的担忧。

2022年,中国宣布将在该地区的雅鲁藏布江下游修建世界上最大的水电大坝。2024年12月,中国政府批准了该项目,但没有透露有关建设何时可能开始和结束的细节,也没有透露新大坝项目可能产生的影响。

该项目的规模超过世界最大的三峡大坝的三倍多,设计清洁能源供应量为34千兆瓦,据称对中国在2030年之前实现碳达峰的目标至关重要。

路透社报道指出,地震过去给该地区水坝造成过破坏,特别是地震引发的山体滑坡和滚石。2018年发表的研究显示,2015年尼泊尔发生的大地震造成该国近五分之一的水力发电停顿,停顿时间长达一年多。

西藏、四川、青海和云南是地震频繁的地区,尤其是在青藏高原地区。2008年,那里发生了8.0级地震,死亡人数将近七万人。从2010年至2022年,在青海、四川、云南、甘肃等地区共发生过五次6.5级至7.1级地震,有3699人死亡,数万人受伤。

责编:安克 网编:何足

© 法新社

图为藏木水电站大坝,位于西藏山南县。喜马拉雅地区大约有68座主要水坝

美副防长:不想胁迫或强制中国 而是以实力保和平

即将卸任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在演讲中表示,美国的目标并非是要“胁迫或强制”中国, 而是希望以实力保和平。她说,美国必须紧急应对中国对美国利益构成的严峻挑战,但也必须充满信心。

“当然,竞争并不意味着冲突,因为没有人希望这样的战争带来全球性破坏。相反,我们希望中华人民共和国的领导层每天醒来时都能考虑侵略的风险,并告诉自己,今天不是发动侵略的日子,从今天到2027年、2035年、2049年甚至更久以后的每一天。”

美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院(SAIS)举办的一场活动上,围绕如何在美中战略竞争中超越中国发表讲话,总结了过去几年来的经验。她于2021年2月宣誓就任美国第35任副防长,成为国防部二号人物。1月20日,随着拜登政府下台,她也将卸任。

希克斯在演讲中强调,中华人民共和国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家,挑战长期以来稳定、开放的国际体系。

图为2015年9月中国阅兵式上展示的DF-26弹道导弹。美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在1月10日的演讲中强调,中国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家。
图为2015年9月中国阅兵式上展示的DF-26弹道导弹。美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在1月10日的演讲中强调,中国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家。
(美联社图片)

对华战略:是威慑不是胁迫

希克斯特别澄清,美国是寻求透过“威慑”中国对美国及其盟友伙伴的侵略来防止冲突,其关键是愿意并有能力在发生战斗时获胜,但威慑(Deterrence)通常在被翻译成中文时,暗指“胁迫”(coersion)。她说:“我想明确一点,我们并没有试图胁迫或强迫中华人民共和国,这不是我们的目标也不是我们的方法,而且这并不是唯一一个我们了解到中华人民共和国可能会误解的国防部用语。也许一个更好的方式来描述我们的目标和方法是‘以实力换和平’。”

希克斯表示,在美中长期战略竞争态势下,美国不能自满。解放军的现代化进程迅速、雄心勃勃,而且高度集中于美国。中国的领导层曾公开批评解放军的虚假战斗能力,美国却在一直致力于提供真正的军事能力。她列举了美军从海洋到外太空的领域的能力提升,指出它们都具有作战可靠性和尖端性,并在很多方面超越中国。

五角大楼将有效应对解放军挑战

希克斯谈到:“即使他们的海军不断现代化,我们与英国和澳大利亚的合作也只会加强我们在水下的联合力量,我们正在重振美国的潜艇工业基地,以达到我们所需的规模和速度。四年来,我们一直寻求投资约 100 亿美元用于劳动力和工业基础,以巩固美国潜艇部队的杀伤力。我们正在重振美国的潜艇工业基地,以达到我们所需的规模和速度。”

她还指出,美国过去几年在太空轨道上进行了更大的投资,这是有史以来最大的太空预算2024年,美国发射的太空卫星数量超过了中国史上发射的卫星数量总和,自2021年以来,美国每年都如此。

希克斯说,美国是希望在行动、投资和信息等方面能够保持威慑力,而不是毫无必要地挑起与北京的战争:“我们不认为冲突不可避免,但我们的工作是时刻做好战争准备,以防止战争的爆发。”

她说,北京可能会看到美国国防部预见到潜在的冲突,那是因为美国担心北京会挑起冲突。双方必须努力避免在这种动态中产生误解。“需要明确的是,我们不会、也没有理由与中华人民共和国进行争夺全球主导地位的意识形态斗争,他们不必屈服于1991年苏联的命运,以让我们繁荣发展并赢得 21 世纪的竞争。”

希克斯强调,对美国而言,胜利意味着确保美国及盟友和伙伴的持续安全与繁荣,确保国际体系不会对美国不利,胜利还意味着避免美中两个拥有核武器的国家爆发全面战争而对全球经济和人类造成的破坏。

希克斯表示,相对于中国,美国具有多方面优势:“我们拥有一个开放的社会,一个充满活力的创新生态系统,在充满活力的自由市场经济中首屈一指,而北京无法复制。我们在整个地区和世界各地都有可靠且能力日益增强的朋友和盟友,他们与我们站在一起,因为他们与我们有着共同的价值观,我们拥有世界上最成熟、最熟练、最专业的军队,由世界上最好的情报机构提供支持。”

最后,希克斯说,美国必须紧急应对中华人民共和国对美国利益构成的严峻挑战,但也必须充满信心。

责编:安克 网编:洪伟

© 视频截图/美国国防部官网

即将卸任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在演讲中表示,美国的目标并非是要“胁迫或强制”中国, 而是希望以实力保和平。

财经时时听 | 2025年中国经济面临何种挑战?

2025开年,中国迎来了人民币疲软,股市下滑的坏消息。随着特朗普重返白宫,美国对华加征高额关税的预期发酵,这对还未从疫情中恢复的中国经济带来又一重打击。中国领导人习近平罕见地在新年讲话中,承认经济面临挑战。那么,2025年中国经济将面临什么挑战?如何摆脱经济下行的局面?本期节目将就此进行探讨。参加讨论的嘉宾是美国华盛顿零极限基金管理人严英哲。

习近平承认经济面临挑战 美关税首当其冲

自从2020年疫情爆发以来,中国经济经历了清零政策和房地产危机等严重冲击,失业率高企,内需不振,通缩问题严重。而就在经济尚未恢复之际,中国又面临新的巨大挑战,那就是2018年在其第一任期内发起对华贸易战的美国总统特朗普,将重返白宫,并对中国进口商品加征高达60%的关税。

在2025新年贺词中,中国领导人习近平承认中国步履蹒跚的经济所带来的挑战,并誓言政府正在努力引领下一阶段的攻坚战。

在讲话中,习近平表示“当前经济运行面临一些新情况,有外部不确定性的挑战,有新旧动能转换的压力,但这些经过努力是可以克服的。”

他说,”大家要充满信心。”

纽约时报报道称,间接提到经济困难对习近平来说,是不同寻常的。他每年都会在新年贺词中宣扬政府过去一年取得的成就。近几周,中国政府越发明确地表示需要采取措施提振经济。

GDP能否保五?

新华社刊登习近平在全国政协新年茶话会上的讲话称,2024年中国经济增长了5%左右,实现政府年初设定的目标。他说,中国经济运行“总体平稳、稳中有进”。习近平指出,重点领域风险化解有序有效,民生保障扎实有力,就业、物价保持稳定。

习近平再次呼吁实施更加积极有为的宏观政策、推动经济持续回升向好,暗示对经济的支持将延续到2025年。

德国之声报道称,中国预计将2025年增长目标设定与2024年相仿的水平。最高领导层早些时候表示,愿意采取更强有力的刺激措施。

一般而言,2025年中国官方GDP增长目标要到3月两会召开时才会公布。

另一方面,从2024年前三个季度GDP增长数据来看,中国似乎不太可能实现“接近5%”的全年增长目标。9月底以来决策层推出一系列刺激举措,令2024年前景改善,世界银行近期将对中国2024年经济增长的预测从4.8%上调至4.9%。然而,研究公司荣鼎集团分析师日前在研报中写道,2024年中国经济增速要低得多,预计在2.4%到2.8%之间。

股市、汇市能否企稳?

2025年一开年,中国证券交易所和央行采取紧急行动以捍卫疲软的人民币和下跌的股市。股市下滑,企业融资困难,股民财富缩水不利消费。而人民币如果持续下滑,将导致资本外流情况更加严重,最终导致国力损伤。这对中国经济复苏形成挑战。

随着1月20日特朗普重返白宫的日子的临近,他扬言要对中国进口商品加征高额关税的威胁已经使得人民币大幅贬值,引发中国大陆国债收益率下跌,并导致2025年的股市开局艰难。

一月六日,人民币创下了16个月来的最低点,蓝筹股指数触及自9月以来最低水平,当日跌幅为0.8%。前一周该指数下跌5%,创两年来最大单周跌幅。

金融时报日前报道称,中国央行表示,可能会在2025年从当前1.5%的水平”在适当的时间“下调利率。外界解读,这是试图进一步调整,让人民币贬值的一个先兆。

根据彭博社报道,中国的经济基本面显示人民币可能进一步贬值。路透社此前报道,中共高层正在考虑允许人民币今年进一步贬值,以应对特朗普可能实施更高对华关税。

有海外媒体报道,去年11月,中国金融市场经历了史上最大规模的资金外流。

另据华尔街日报报道在2024年底中国外汇储备降幅超出预期。在中国央行公布的数据显示,截至12月末,外汇储备下降635亿美元,至3.202万亿美元。这一降幅大于该报针对经济学家估计的减少200亿美元。

外汇管理局表示,12月强势美元和全球金融资产价格下跌对中国外汇储备造成压力,但中国经济运行总体平稳,有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。

出口增势反转 内需是否能够拉动经济?

过去几年,尽管受到疫情冲击,房地产暴跌,内需不振,但中国的出口却一枝独秀,成为支持中国经济的一大主力。然而,近几个月来,这个趋势出现反转,其他增长动能能否弥补这个缺口,形成挑战。

中国2024年12月服务业活动呈现7个月以来最快速度扩张,主要是受到国内需求增加的推动,但海外订单下滑,反映贸易风险。

最新公布的财新服务业指数12月录得52.2,比前一个月的51.5上升0.7个百分点。

这一结果与官方PMI数据大体一致。官方PMI数据显示,包含服务业和建筑业的非制造业PMI从11月份的50,上升至12月的52.2.

财新智库高级经济学家王喆表示,9月底以来系列存量政策组合效益继续释放,积极变化增多。

尽管2024年12月供需扩张速度微升,但从调查分项来看,其需求增加主要是靠内需拉动。外需陷入收缩状态。自从2023年8月以来,新出口订单指数首次跌至临界点以下,且为近两年低点。

服务业企业对市场前景依然持乐观预期,但信心明显走弱。信心维持正值,但降低至2020年3月以来次低水平。

在新的一年,中国经济还面临其他多方面的重大挑战,包括房地产市场是否能够触底反弹,就业市场是否能够提供更多的就业机会等等

如果您对本节目有什么意见和建议,欢迎写信到fankui@rfa.org.或推特账号RFA_RYM与主持人进行联系。

© 路透社

习近平在全国政协新年茶话会上的讲话称,2024年中国经济增长了5%左右。

中国将向非洲提供10亿元无偿军事援助 培训七千名军警

综合国际媒体与中央社报道,中国外交部长王毅本月9日在尼日利亚宣布,中国将向非洲国家提供10亿元人民币(约合1.36亿美元)无偿军事援助,以帮助非洲国家培训6000名军队人才和1000名警务执法人员。

王毅表示,中国将坚定支持“非洲人以非洲方式解决非洲问题”,并反对外部势力以任何形式干涉非洲国家的内政。王毅还表示,中国将坚定支持非洲加强和平安全能力建设,将与非方建立落实全球安全倡议伙伴关系,推进安全共筑伙伴行动,并向非方提供上述无偿军事援助。

法新社周四报道称,尼日利亚是中国在撒哈拉以南非洲的主要贸易伙伴之一,向中国出口天然气和石油,同时从中国进口工业制成品。据尼日利亚政府数据,2023年中尼双边贸易额达到226亿美元。

该报道指出,中国是非洲最大的商业伙伴,2024年第一季度中非贸易额达到1678亿美元。近年来,中国通过公共银行贷款帮助非洲国家建设基础设施,但也导致一些国家债务加深。

责编:安克 网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

中国是非洲最大的商业伙伴。

评论 | 伊里夏提:维吾尔语 -- 被斩断的根

大约2014年夏季,我在房前加盖门廊的工程开始了;我请了两位搞建筑装修的维吾尔人负责工程。他们有时忙不过来,就会请拉丁裔短工。

大约一个月后的一个下午,我发现干活的多了一位老人,我以为是他们请来的拉丁裔帮工,就没有在意。快到收工时间了,我走出来看看,并邀请他们进屋和我们一起吃晚餐再回家。

谈话间,我发现老人是维吾尔人,是两位搞建筑维吾尔人之一的远房亲戚,他来美国看望住在加利福尼亚州的儿子一家,已经几个月了;老人几天前来维吉尼亚探访其他亲朋好友,但不想呆在家里,就和他们一起来帮忙干活、聊天。

谈话间,老人告诉我他退休前是维吾尔自治区人大机关干部,负责为维吾尔官员起草讲话、翻译文件等;之前,他是乌鲁木齐一所维吾尔中学的文学老师;谈吐凸显他是一位学者,对维吾尔现代和古典文学有着极深刻的见解,对维吾尔近代史更是娓娓道来。

老人看到我家里满书架的维吾尔及中、英文书籍,特别激动;其中好多中文书,如《张治中回忆录》、《冰与火》、《红楼梦》、《三国演义》等书他都读过。他花了很长时间浏览我的书架,然后问我能否借给他几本维吾尔、中文书籍阅读,他特别想读艾力汗·图热的自传体回忆录《突厥斯坦悲剧》和齐亚·萨迈蒂的《艾尼巴图尔》、《艾合买提江·卡斯木传》,及中文的《毛泽东私人医生回忆录》,我爽快地答应了。

我问他在美国的生活,他苦笑了一下说,除了找不到人说话,感觉寂寞孤独外,一切都好。他说每天儿子和儿媳去上班后,只剩下他和孙儿女,而孙儿女除了简单维吾尔语如“Dada(爸爸)、Apa(妈妈)、和Buwa(爷爷)之外,基本听不懂维吾尔语,无法进行交流,所以他不得不抽空看电视跟着孙儿女学英语。

我说你可以教孙儿女维吾尔语,他说他试了,但效果不大,因为孩子在幼儿园、学校都是英语,回家电视上也还是英语;然后,他哈哈一笑,非常乐观地告诉我,他计划探亲结束回去时,带着孙儿女一起回去,把孙儿女送到喀什噶尔去生活一段时间。老人极其自信地说,只要让孩子们在维吾尔文化发源地的喀什噶尔待上一个月,准保孙儿女能说一口流利的维吾尔语回来。

老人临离开维吉尼亚前,借还书之际再来拜访,我们俩又聊了一会儿。当我谈到中国政策在向左转,习近平要回到毛泽东老路,重启文革那一套;而且,对维吾尔人的迫害性政策正在加码;可能有更大的灾难在等着维吾尔人时,老人不以为然,他信心满满地告诉我,不会的,就算习近平想那么做,也做不到。他说中国的老干部、中老年知识分子,都或多或少遭遇过文革的疯狂,绝不会让习近平重走老路。

他说维吾尔人的日子可能会不好过,但过一段时间,习近平到期交班后,就会好转。他总结性地对我说道:“老弟,我经历过共产党的历次运动,都是一阵风,长的几年,短的几个月。文革我们都过来了,还能有比文革更可怕的运动吗?不会的,放心,这种不得人心的政策,很快会有人出来纠正。”

我不想说老人愚昧,他很聪明,不仅了解汉文化、历史,而且维吾尔人文化、历史知识也很丰富;但大概是在体制内呆久了,对政治风向失去了敏感性,有点麻木,还有点幼稚;但我无意与一个一面之交老人进行辩论。

自那次告别后,我没见过那位老人;随着时间的推移,我也忘记了那位老人及和他的谈话交流。

2025年的新年前,在一次偶然的机会,我又与这位老人不期而遇;老人看起来真的是老了,头发胡须雪白,消瘦的脸上一副苍老和抑郁,眼睛也失去了光泽,几年前的自信和热情荡然无存。

我俩如久别老友重逢,极热烈地拥抱寒暄,然后就坐在一起聊了起来。老人告诉我,他2015年年初回了乌鲁木齐;同年年底,他的一位还在自治区政府的朋友,很神秘地告诉他,他如果可能,最好出国和儿女待一段时间。他先是犹豫了一阵,但发现维吾尔自治区的高压态势不仅没有减缓,而是一波又一波的抓人高潮开始了;即便退休人员,只要是维吾尔人,都被要求表态“发声亮剑”,并被要求上缴家里的维吾尔语书籍。

他说他也被迫表态了,也被迫“发声亮剑”了,家里的藏书也都上交了;但看着身边一起工作了一辈子的维吾尔朋友,有在职的官员,有和他一起退休的干部,有他认识的知名知识分子,一个接一个地消失;他开始害怕了,在极度的恐惧中,他找熟人花钱要回了被迫上交的护照;然后,在2016年年中,悄悄地离开了乌鲁木齐。

我说你一个退休干部,应该没有参与什么大事,有什么特别令他害怕的大事吗?他告诉我,确实也没有什么大事;只是在2009年7.5之后,中央派了几个联合调查组,召集了在乌鲁木齐的维吾尔知识分子,要他们开诚布公谈谈对7.5的看法,及发生的原因,并保证谈话内容保密,以后不抓辫子。

他说一开始大家还是有所顾虑,都沉默不语;中央调查组,就点名几位维吾尔体制内红色作家发表意见;听他们大谈什么中央不重视维吾尔干部呀等无关痛痒的问题,他和其他几位与会同道就有点坐不住了;就要求发言。在发言中,他和几位同伴指出,其实,7.5的深层原因是所谓“双语教育”和“维吾尔剩余劳动力”转移等问题导致。

他说,尽管当时及过后的一段时间,确实没有追究任何维吾尔知识分子的问题,大家也都以为就此过去了;但他发现,这次的大抓捕,有一部分维吾尔知识分子就是以反对中央“双语教育”政策等罪名被抓捕的,包括所谓“问题教科书”牵连维吾尔人,也都是当年在自治区官员鼓励下,向中央联合调查组反应“双语教育”和“维吾尔剩余劳动力转移”政策有大问题,必须停止,否则还会出问题的那些知识分子。

说着、说着,他声音哽咽:“那些人都是无辜的,我和他们大多数都认识,有些还是特别要好的朋友,也都年纪一大把了,我不知道他们能否活着走出监狱;说实话,至少他们当中的相当一部分,是真心相信中国政府一定会越来越开放,会信任维吾尔人,会给予维吾尔人更多自治的政府官员或知识分子。”

谈话越来越沉重,为了转移话题,我问他近况如何,他深吸一口气说到:“在美国的生活是无忧无虑,但寂寞、孤单;尽管儿孙绕膝,但心还是在家乡,”他不无忧虑地继续道:“我想念那些一起工作过的朋友,想念留在家乡的女儿和孙儿女;忧心那些被抓捕朋友。”然后是更深沉的叹息。

我继续努力使话题生活化,就问他是否和家乡女儿、孙儿女有电话联系,他说有;我问经常通话吗?他又深深地吸了一口气,回复说基本上是一个月一次,不敢太频繁,害怕给女儿带来更多麻烦。

我说你那边的孙儿女也都长大了吧,他苦笑了一下说:“是,他们都长大了,”然后他沉默了。我追着问道:“电话里,能和那边的孙儿女谈话吧?”老人稍显尴尬地看着我说:“谈话?可以,但他们都用汉语,连爷爷、奶奶、爸爸、妈妈都是汉语!伊利夏提老弟,你可能没有经历过这种境况。我每次听到孙儿女在电话里用汉语说‘爷爷好’时,我特别悲哀、伤心。几个月前的一次通话中,我似乎忘了他们在哪儿,当孙儿女在电话里问候说‘爷爷好’时,我实在接受不了,就严厉地训斥他们讲维吾尔语。结果,话没有说完电话就断了;再打过去,女儿接电话;她很委婉地告诉我,现在大家都讲国语,在家里也要讲国语。我知道了,我又给女儿惹了麻烦。”

看起来,任何话题,对维吾尔人而言,都不轻松;也是,对于一个在种族灭绝暴行之下呻吟挣扎的民族而言,哪来的轻松话题!

艰难的话题让我们彼此都陷入了沉思,过了一会儿,老人眼含泪水对我说:“伊利夏提,还记得你我第一次见面时的谈话吗?”我回答记得。他说:“我当时信心满满,以为美国的孙儿女,只要带他们回家乡待上一个月就可以学会维吾尔母语;没有想到,现在,不说美国的孙儿女,连家乡的孙儿女也不会讲维吾尔母语了;而且,现在,不说带孙儿女回家乡,连我自己都回不去了;而在家乡的女儿、孙儿女也出不来;我们太可怜了,家乡没能保住,现在连维吾尔母语也保不住了。”

他满脸忧愁地继续道:“现在,在美国,我无法和孙儿女进行交流,因为我的英语不行,而他们不懂维吾尔母语;在电话里,我无法和远在家乡的孙儿女进行交流,因为我的汉语不太行,特别是口语。我没有想到,真的没有想到,我和我的下下一代的文化、传统联系,就这样被活生生阻断了!中国政府制造的这一语言代际深渊,斩断了我们维吾尔人的家庭亲情,摧毁了维吾尔人的文化和传统!这是种族灭绝,伊利夏提老弟,这是种族灭绝!我们太幼稚,太幼稚了。我们天真地以为他们会信守承诺,会信守让我们自治的承诺!”

他继而愤愤不平地说道:“中国政府以反右、反地方民族主义、文革等政治运动,以反恐怖、反分裂、反极端主义等口号,一茬又一茬地剪灭维吾尔知识分子;每次,只要火没有烧到我头上,我总是保持沉默;总以为这是一阵风,会过去;但我没有想到,他们是有目的的在种族灭绝维吾尔人,在同化维吾尔人。说实话,老弟,我现在才认识到,这是他们的长期战略!我们都上当了!”

看着老人苍白脸上愤怒的眼神,颤抖着的嘴唇发出的绝望之声,我只能是机械地点头表示同意;我无意打断老人的倾诉,这是被欺骗一代苟活维吾尔知识分子最后的愤怒,是希望者幻灭时刻的怒气发泄。可以说,中国殖民者的铁拳,让老人在他满怀颐养天年之美梦时刻,使其无家可归;更甚,甚至使其失去了和下一代、下下一代,分享自己人生甜酸苦辣的温馨人生之黄昏岁月。

老人因热爱维吾尔母语,一辈子以维吾尔母语为其人生事业,到头却发现,延续千年的维吾尔母语及其传承的维吾尔身份,不仅使其流落异国他乡,且使其在自己的后代面前成了哑巴;发现老人一辈子引以为豪的维吾尔母语及其传承的文化底蕴,使其在异国他乡的余年孤寂惨淡。

最后,老人问我能否再给他借几本维吾尔语书籍,我还是很爽快地告诉他行。第二天,我早早为老人准备了十来本维吾尔语书;他中午过来拿书,吃完饭临告别时,我把准备好的几本书递给他。他拿着那些书,以一种文人特有的敬意翻阅、抚摸着。

我又拿出由世界维吾尔代表大会出版社出版发行的,由上世纪著名维吾尔独立运动领袖、历史学家默罕默德·伊敏·博格拉(Muhammad Imin Bughra)撰写的《东突厥斯坦历史》维吾尔语精装本,和由诗人、历史学家图尔贡·阿力玛斯(Turghun Almas)倾心书写的《维吾尔人》、《匈奴简史》、《维吾尔古典文学史》三本书的维吾尔语精装合订本,告诉他这是我送他的礼物。

他庄重地接过厚厚两本书,先是把书高高举过头顶,然后轻轻地拿到嘴边吻了一下封面,然后将两本书和其他书本一起,小心翼翼地放进他带来的背包,嘴里说着 “谢谢,谢谢……”走出家门上车。

我站在房前走廊,目送老人自车窗挥手驶别,直到他的车消失在街道尽头;内心一股悲哀袭上心头;我不知道,我是在和老人告别呢?还是在和他一起,在异国他乡的流亡中,在和那养育并滋润我成长的,和母亲的乳汁一起成为我身份不可分割一部分的维吾尔文化身份、维吾尔传统、历史告别?(本文仅代表作者个人观点立场)

© 路透社

看起来,任何话题,对维吾尔人而言,都不轻松;也是,对于一个在种族灭绝暴行之下呻吟挣扎的民族而言,哪来的轻松话题!

💾

洛杉矶大火 旅美中国民运人士投入救灾

近日,美国南加州洛杉矶地区发生火灾,一批居住在当地的中国民运人士也投入了与救灾相关的救援行动。

紧急倡议 迅速筹措物资送往庇护所

本次活动的组织者、中国民主党联合总部执行长界立建表示,这次救灾援助是紧急进行的,从发出倡议到采取行动的间隔时间很短:“我们是1月9号上午紧急(出)的一个援助(倡议)。这个倡议一出,我们在群里一呼吁,很多人筹备响应。当天(准备的)时间非常短暂,很多人就请假。因为老板听说这个事情是做援助火灾灾民,就特批假期。”

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

短时间内,响应本次援助活动的人数就达到了二十多人。他们在1月9日当天午后聚集在位于洛杉矶阿罕布拉的超市,购买了大量食物、矿泉水、卫生用品,也有人捐出了上百条毛毯和枕头。随后,他们组成车队前往位于帕萨迪纳市政厅的灾民庇护所。

界立建表示:“我们联络了庇护所,这都是他们紧急亟需的一些产品。”

在这支救援车队到达灾民庇护所后,他们将运送的救灾物资交给了在那里的工作人员。

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

中国民运人士筹备更多援助计划

界立建谈到了他们进行这次援助行动的一个重要目的:“我认为,是中国政府迫害我们,美国给了我们一个安全的港湾、一个家。美国有难,我们应该力所能及地去帮助美国。我觉得,这是美国伟大的一个原因,人人有爱。”

曾参与过上海白纸运动的房兰峰参加了本次援助活动。他告诉本台,中共的极端行为已经严重影响到了华人的形象:“我们和他们是不同的,我们是怀着善良、友爱的世界公民,愿意为文明社会贡献自己力所能及的力量。我们也呼吁更多华人朋友能积极参与到救灾捐助活动,让我们共同用实际行动、爱心去守护家园。”

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

目前,洛杉矶当地的中国民运人士还在筹备其它参与救灾援助的计划。

中国民主党全委会洛杉矶执行长王中伟在1月9日接受了本台采访时介绍了相关情况:“稍晚一点,我们会投入一些行动,去筹措一些受灾区的人可能会用到的日常用品,比如说一些服装、一些个人卫生用品,或者饮用水等等。”

责编:何平

© 范英龙提供

本次救灾援助活动的情形

强权政治进入美中竞争? 特朗普不排除武力夺回巴拿马运河

美国候任总统特朗普近日威胁要夺取巴拿马运河以及格陵兰岛,引起外界热议。尤其在离美国本土更近的巴拿马运河,中国在这一地区的影响力日趋深厚,特朗普的说法引发外界对这一地区大国竞争态势的强烈关注。

巴拿马这个中美洲国家上一次在中文社媒上频繁出现还是在近几年的走线潮中,这一次却是因为特朗普的一句话。

离1月20日正式就职不到两周,特朗普本周二(1月7日)在其佛罗里达州的海湖庄园接受记者采访时说,对巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛的控制对美国国家安全至关重要,他不排除使用军事力量取得这两个地方。他还指责巴拿马允许中国士兵控制了巴拿马运河。

此前在12月底,特朗普就曾在社交媒体上抨击巴拿马运河高昂的通行费,要求巴拿马降价,否则应将运河返还给美国。

这些说法传出后,巴拿马政府很快澄清,没有中国军队在巴拿马。但在中国通过一带一路项目将足迹深入美国后院,对拉丁美洲的影响力越来越大的背景下,特朗普的说法让外界关注到中美两国在巴拿马地区的竞争态势,及其可能对美中关系产生的影响。

图为巴拿马运河上的一处船闸。中国在该地区的影响力日趋深厚。
图为巴拿马运河上的一处船闸。中国在该地区的影响力日趋深厚。
(Arnulfo Franco/美联社图片)

美中在巴拿马的影响力

这条在二十世纪初开凿的运河在世纪结束前的多数时间处于美国控制下,但在卡特总统的推动下,美国于1999年从巴拿马撤军,运河由此交由巴拿马政府管理。但根据华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心2021年的报告,美国仍然通过与巴拿马签订的《关于巴拿马运河永久中立和营运的条约》(TREATY CONCERNING THE PERMANENT NEUTRALITY AND OPERATION OF THE PANAMA)维持对巴拿马运河的战略影响力。而每年从巴拿马运河通过的货物六成以上是来自美国或抵达美国。

但随着中国国力的增强,中国的足迹在拉丁美洲也越来越深,尤其是一带一路项目的展开,让中国扩大了对巴拿马的投资,尤其是运河两端的港口基础设施。其中引起关注比较多的是香港的长江和记实业的子公司,管理着运河太平洋和大西洋出口的两个主要枢纽巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港,以及2016年,中国路桥集团以9亿美元收购了巴拿马大西洋一侧最大的港口玛格丽特岛的控制权,这里是位于西半球最大的自由贸易区科隆自由贸易区内。

尤其值得一提的是2017年巴拿马时任总统巴雷拉断绝与台湾的外交关系,并承认中国。这在外界看来是为中国进一步扩大在运河关键基础设施的影响力铺平了道路。

巴拿马在与中国建交期间,豪尔赫·海涅(Jorge Heine)正在北京担任智利驻中华人民共和国大使,他告诉记者,中国是世界领先的贸易国家,是世界最大的出口国,也是第二大进口国,“所以对于像巴拿马这样依赖运输、物流以及交通的国家,与中国这样的国家建立正式的外交关系非常重要。”但他强调,这并不意味着中国比美国对巴拿马有更大影响力,“我认为巴拿马在处理与美中之间的关系时是比较平衡的,试图与两国都维持很好的关系。”

海涅目前在美国波士顿大学从事国际关系的研究,他告诉记者,巴拿马始终非常重视与美国的关系,“巴拿马与美国关系很好,现任政府很亲美国。”但他认为没有必要担心香港公司对于那两个港口的运营,“这是自1977年以来就是如此,并没有什么变化,并且在1997年美国联邦参议院有一个报告认为,这种状况对美国的安全和利益没有影响,也不足以构成担忧;”他强调,中国公司对港口的控制并没有提升。

据战略与国际研究中心的报告,2024年6月卸任的巴拿马总统科尔蒂索任职期间曾采取措施减少中国在当地的影响,包括停止中国在运河入口处建造大使馆,以及取消或推迟一些已启动的项目。但这份2021年的报告提到,中国“一带一路“向港口设施的扩张引起了美国的警觉,认为中国扩大影响力可能危及运河的中立性。

美国的担忧是否合理

美国艾德菲 (Adelphi University)大学文理学院院长、政治学教授王维正对记者分析说,美国方面的担忧与19世纪初美国形成的“门罗主义”有关,“就是有这样一种主张,就是认为西半球是美国的势力范围,这包括北美洲、南美洲和中美洲,他们是希望欧洲老牌的帝国主义不要来干涉美国在西半球的事务。”詹姆斯·门罗是美国19世纪初叶的第五任总统。

王维正指出,中国这些年在拉丁美洲势力的扩张可能影响到了美国传统上对其势力范围的认识,“基本上来讲,就是中国在美国后院已经另起炉灶,这让美国逐渐视中国为一个竞争对手,为此感到忐忑不安。”他强调,这实际上就是美中竞争的一环。

海涅大使则认为包括华盛顿智库在内的人不必太过担心中国的影响力,“我不认为这反映了巴拿马当地的实际情况,这些担心主要是出于世界舞台上的意识形态竞争。”

美国《纽约时报》则在报道中指出,特朗普对巴拿马运河作出这种发言可能与共和党的政治倾向有关,因为一些共和党人一直反对当初以中立的方式把运河交还给巴拿马;当初里根在竞选总统时曾强调,美国人民才是巴拿马运河的合法拥有者。

但王维正分析说,根据美国与巴拿马签订的条约,美国对于巴拿马仍然有很大的主动权,“如果有任何势力(没有明确讲是何种势力)想要夺取巴拿马运河,美国可以采取军事的力量排除。”

美中竞争回归19世纪强权政治?

美联社对特朗普的说法另有解释,其一篇相关报道指出,特朗普似乎是想拥抱一种新的帝国主义议程,他的语言反映了一种19世纪的世界观。

对此,巴拿马外交部长哈维尔·马丁内斯-阿查在1月7日表示,巴方期待与特朗普政府维持合作关系,但运河主权“不容谈判”。

海涅大使则对记者介绍说,特朗普的说法在拉丁美洲引起了很负面的评价,“该地区,包括巴拿马在内,对于特朗普的反应是比较负面的;如果他真的想在第二任期在西半球保持良好的关系,他不会愿意坚持这种说法。”

但据法新社报道,意大利总理梅洛尼周四(1月9日)对外表示,美国不会“武力吞并”格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河;特朗普的说法“更多是向其他大国”传达信息,她还强调,特朗普在这里指的是中国。

王维正也认为,特朗普的意愿未必是要坚持19世纪那种帝国主义的世界观,“我觉得他的主要想法就是想确定巴拿马运河的运作是永久中立,而且对美国利益没有损害。”

他指出,特朗普所抱怨的巴拿马运河收费太高,这也不是针对任何一个国家的,而是因为当地干旱,要维持运河水位的成本升高,所有通过船只都涨了价。这恰恰说明美中任何一个国家都无法单独对巴拿马运动的运作施加特别的影响。

责编:安克 网编:洪伟

© 美联社图片

美国当选总统特朗普近日宣称要夺取巴拿马运河以及格陵兰岛,引起外界热议。

Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Sprint to Remake Meta for the Trump Era

After visiting President-elect Donald J. Trump in November, Mr. Zuckerberg decided to relax Meta’s speech policies. He asked a small team to carry out his goals within weeks. The repercussions are just beginning.

© Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, has regularly spoken to friends and colleagues about his concerns that progressives were policing speech.

'I have nothing to go back to' - BBC reporter tells of LA fires heartbreak

BBC A young women in glasses wearing a mask to protect herself from smokeBBC
Lucy Sherriff fled the Palisades and returned to find her home destroyed

It's been four days since Los Angeles became an inferno - and my home became a pile of smouldering embers.

I'm now staying at a friend's house in La Crescenta, north of the city, after evacuating my condo in the Palisades, 30 miles (48km) away from where the fires first started on Tuesday morning.

I thought we'd be safe here, but with six active fires now burning across the city, nowhere feels safe. So far, LA's fires have forced more than 179,000 people including myself to evacuate.

Many people I know thought they had found refuge, only to have to flee again.

We've had our bags packed by the door, just in case we were ordered to leave for the second time in 48 hours.

On Thursday afternoon, the moment we were dreading happened - we got an emergency evacuation notice.

We panicked, and ran to load the cars again. I checked my car - low on gas - and sent my partner out to find some. He had to drive to four different stations before he found one with any supply.

The alarm, it turned out, was false, a mistake that rattled America's second-largest city, which was already on edge.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC Burned out remains of homes on Lucy's streetLucy Sherriff / BBC
The smouldering remains of Lucy Sherriff's home

As a climate reporter, I am used to covering extreme weather events. Just a few weeks ago I was interviewing residents who had fled the Malibu fires. Now I'm on the other side of the story.

The Palisades Fire has already been dubbed a historical wildfire. And it will forever be burnished in my memory because it's the wildfire that burned down my community and my home.

It began on the morning of 7 January. Small flames on the Santa Monica mountain-side that I could see from the Palisades Village. I watched it for a short while, the smoke stretching across the clear blue sky. Locals were taking photos of it.

An hour later, the flames had jumped across the ridgelines and descended down the mountain. I watched as the fire began to engulf homes and smoke billowed across the sky.

I was already extremely concerned about the Santa Ana wind warnings we'd received two days prior – up to 80mph (129kmh) wind gusts were forecast. Those, and the lack of rain we'd had made ideal conditions for a fire to spread quickly and intensely.

I felt how quickly the wind was changing, blowing embers and smoke across the town. And I could see the fire spreading, jumping from spot to spot so that it was soon surrounding the Palisades.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A street in LA with palm trees surrounded by burnt buildings and unburnt buildingsLucy Sherriff / BBC
Burned out buildings line the streets of Lucy Sherriff's neighbourhood

The scene was truly apocalyptic - a bright red sun cast an orange glow over us, and ash rained down like snow.

I ran back home and started making plans if I needed to evacuate. There didn't feel much point in leaving right at that moment because the one road out, Sunset Blvd, was gridlocked.

I packed the important stuff first - passports, birth certificates - and then when I felt I had a bit more time, I hosed down the front of the house, hoping the water would keep my condo, one of several terraced buildings in a small development, from succumbing to the fire.

I finally decided to leave when we were told there was a mandatory evacuation order for the entirety of the Palisades. I was also getting more concerned as the fire had spread to the mountains directly in front of my house, and I had heard the winds were only going to get stronger going into the evening.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A burned out car surrounded by burnt buildings as the sun shines through smokey cloudsLucy Sherriff / BBC

I never received a message about any evacuations or fire warnings on that first terrible day and nor did my partner. I was informed by neighbours.

I'm lucky I have a press pass and I could approach emergency services to find out what news I could. I'm so grateful that everyone I know managed to get out on time. A lot of us didn't realise how close the flames were to our homes, due to the lack of communication and information available.

It took a while to get out. There were thousands of cars trying to leave, all desperate to flee the flames. The frustration and fear was palpable.

I thought my home would be safe as it sits on the other side of Sunset Blvd, across from the mountains. I didn't think the fire would jump the road.

But when I got a text from a neighbour to say she saw Palisades High School on fire as she was evacuating, I knew that the fire was spreading further than anyone could have predicted. I had been watching the news - it was hard to look away - and it has been heartbreaking to see the school in flames, as well as some of our cultural landmarks, such as our local theatre.

Knowing that the wind speeds were only going to pick up as night fell, and it's much harder to fight a fire in the dark, I realised in that moment that my home might not make it. It was a sobering thought that I might be six months pregnant and homeless.

We arrived in La Crescenta Tuesday evening. The next morning I received the news from a neighbour that our house had made it through the night. I cried with relief.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A fireman houses down a fire while standing on a roofLucy Sherriff / BBC

When we started to read about looting that was happening in the Palisades, we decided we would go and check on our house, and retrieve some of the irreplaceable belongings we'd left behind - photographs, journals and family jewellery.

We returned Wednesday afternoon and were allowed to drive in because of my press credentials. When we reached Sunset Blvd, our road, we saw flames and fire engines and in front of our block of condos. My heart sank.

We drove past and saw our entire cluster of condos had been levelled.

We parked the car, and raced around the back. As soon as I saw the scene I doubled up like I'd been hit. Where about 20 condos once stood there was a pile of burning rubble. The firefighters, their faces covered in ash, kept apologising that they couldn't save our home. I was sobbing and thanking them for doing so much already.

I had to call and tell all of my neighbours that their homes were gone. I could barely get the words out.

Most of my village, I'd say about 90%, has been razed to the ground. It's all gone. I'm reeling from the shock, from the devastation and from everything my community has lost.

I'm planning to leave the city and stay with friends further north where it's safe and there's no smoke. I think it will be a while before I want to come back to LA.

It's surreal to think there's literally nothing to go back to. No home, no library, no stores, no kids' karate dojo, no theatre, no community centre. It's all just gone. I keep thinking "I should have grabbed more of my stuff before I fled".

But then I think back to one crystal clear moment before I fled my house: standing in my bedroom, trying to choose which pair of earrings to take with me – a gold pair of hoops my sisters had gifted me for my 30th, or a pair of handmade abalone shell earrings that a Native American woman had given me after reporting on her community.

I told myself, out loud: "Only take what you need. What do you need?" And I realised in a moment of clarity, whilst I was frantically scanning all of my favourite clothes, shoes, and jewellery, that I really didn't need any of it.

I grabbed my grandmother's ring, passports, birth certificates, and left everything else to burn.

Trump avoids prison or fine in hush-money case sentencing

Getty Images Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually on a computer desktop screen from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case. Trump has his finger pointing at the camera, with US flags positioned behind him and Blanche.Getty Images
Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case.

A judge has sentenced US President-elect Donald Trump to an "unconditional discharge," bringing to an end the first criminal trial of a former US president.

The sentence in the hush-money payment case means the incoming president has been spared any penalty, including jail time or a fine, but he will still take office as the first US president with a felony conviction.

"Never before has this court been presented with such a unique and remarkable set of circumstances," Justice Juan Merchan said shortly before announcing the sentence, calling it a "truly extraordinary case".

Appearing via video call from Florida and flanked by his attorney and two prominent American flags, Trump declared he was "totally innocent".

It was the first time in this year-and-half long legal saga that Trump had uttered more than a "not guilty" or given a brief affirmative answer.

Granted the chance to speak ahead of his sentencing, Trump railed against the case for several minutes.

"This has been a very terrible experience," he said.

He claimed there had been a "weaponisation" of the judicial system and claimed the case was brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for political reasons.

"I would like to explain that I was treated very, very unfairly, and I thank you very much," he said, before falling silent.

As Bragg watched Trump address him directly for the first time, he maintained a mostly stoic expression. He did, however, chuckle when Trump claimed Bragg had never wanted to bring the case.

After Trump had his say, Justice Merchan then took several moments to reflect on the "paradox" of the trial.

Justice Merchan noted that despite the media and political circus outside, "once the courtroom doors were closed, it was no more unique than all the other cases taking place at the same time".

But he added that after Trump was convicted, the case took another turn when the American people elected him in November to a second presidential term.

After careful consideration, he had determined that "the only lawful sentence, without encroaching upon the highest office of the land", was unconditional discharge - a sentence that would allow the American people a president unencumbered by pending court proceedings.

Getty Images One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.Getty Images
One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.

The end of a historic trial

Trump was found guilty by a New York jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in May 2024. His sentencing was delayed multiple times due to Supreme Court rulings and the November presidential election.

The charges stemmed from a plot to cover up a hush-money payment to an adult film star in the waning days of the 2016 election. Prosecutors argued the payment was a form of election interference aimed at keeping vital information from voters, and therefore broke the law.

In October 2016, Trump's then-attorney, Michael Cohen, paid a woman named Stormy Daniels $130,000 (£106,000) to remain silent about a years-old alleged sexual encounter with the soon-to-be president.

After he was elected, Trump reimbursed Cohen in installments – and then falsely recorded them as legal expenses. Each of Trump's guilty verdicts correlates to a false document related to the cover-up.

Trump pleaded not guilty to the charges and denied the sexual encounter with Ms Daniels. He repeatedly claimed the case was politically motivated persecution.

The six-week trial became a legal, political and media firestorm. Larger-than-life characters like Cohen and Daniels took the stand to face questioning from Trump's attorneys.

Trump brought a string of family members and Republican allies to court with him each day to fill the benches behind his defence table. Each day, he turned a small media pen in the hallway outside the courtroom into his personal pulpit, using the opportunities to rail against the justice system, the press, and other adversaries.

Trump also used the furore of the trial to raise millions from supporters for his legal battles, and his campaign to retake the White House.

In the four years between his terms in office, Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases, including his New York case. In the end, this was the only one to go to trial.

On the campaign trail and social media, Trump used his legal quagmires to portray himself – and his supporters – as victims of a rigged justice system.

Despite the multiple indictments, including two that centred on his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Trump decisively defeated Vice-President Kamala Harris in November.

His victory quashed the two federal prosecutions against him, including his federal election interference case and one involving alleged mishandling of classified documents. The third, an election interference case in Fulton County, Georgia, has been stuck in a series of delays and side dramas for months.

Only Trump's hush-money trial ever reached its conclusion, after Justice Merchan dug his heels in early January and demanded Trump appear virtually or in person for his sentencing.

The battles did not stop there, however. Trump's lawyers frantically filed appeals and even petitioned the US Supreme Court to halt the Friday hearing.

The Supreme Court rejected him in a brief order issued Thursday night.

They also fought to have the case dismissed by arguing that presidents-elect have immunity from criminal prosecution, an argument Justice Merchan rejected but they have continued to argue to higher courts.

When Trump's New York trial adjourned with a final bang of the gavel on Friday, it also brought to a close this particularly fraught chapter in his personal and political history.

When he is sworn in 10 days from now, he will do so as the first US president to have ever been convicted of a felony.

As he concluded his sentencing on Friday, Justice Merchan had one final message for Trump.

"I wish you Godspeed as you assume your second term in office," he said.

Faisal Islam: Mortgage rates are not rising yet but Reeves has to act

Getty Images A row of terraced houses with chimneys on a frosty winter's day.Getty Images

It has not been a good week for Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Government borrowing costs have hit their highest level in 16 years and the pound has fallen to a 14-month low against the dollar.

She has gone on a planned trip to China amid accusations from opposition parties that she is leaving at a moment of economic peril.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is accompanying her on the trip. The 12-hour flight to Beijing is probably the length of the meeting she might have wanted to have with him.

So how serious are the recent movements on the markets and what could happen as a result?

Budget plans need to be tweaked

While the markets stabilised from Thursday lunchtime, the move against UK government debt is already enough to cause a problem for the chancellor's Budget maths.

Reeves has pledged not to borrow to fund day-to-day spending and to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament. The Treasury has said these fiscal rules, set out in the Budget, are "non-negotiable".

At times over the past week the markets have looked pretty fragile for Britain, with both government borrowing costs going up and sterling falling back at the same time. That is a key marker.

While it's true that the overall direction for the markets over the past month has been set by an assessment of the inflationary consequences of President-elect Trump's trade and economic policies, the UK has been getting some special attention in addition.

It risks being tarred with both the inflationary stickiness of the US, and the stagnant growth of the eurozone - the worst of both worlds.

Line chart showing 10-year UK government bond yields, from 2004 to January 2025. The yield was 4.9% on 2 January 2004, and rose to a peak of 5.5% in July 2007. It then gradually fell to a low of 0.1% in August 2020, before starting to climb again. On 10 January 2025, it hit 4.8%, the highest level since 2008.

That said, it is important to be precise about the extent of the problem. The extra cost of servicing the national debt at these interest rates would be several billion pounds a year - i.e. material enough to require some sort of correction in the Budget maths, but doable, and the clear message this week is that "it will be done".

No impact on mortgages so far

The impact on budgetary maths is real, but the wider impact that might be expected - of higher borrowing costs for companies and for households - has not yet materialised.

The mortgage market has yet to see an increase in rates for fixed-term mortgages, as occurred rapidly in the panic after the 2022 mini-Budget. There is a curious calm.

One explanation lies in what is not happening. This time last year the major lenders greatly discounted mortgages in a battle for market share ahead of the key moments for house buying. This has not happened this year, and may yet have a consequence in the property market.

The Bank of England has indicated it will continue with interest rate cuts this year. The markets think there may be far fewer than previously expected, perhaps only one, leaving base interest rates at 4.5%.

Many economists say this is the wrong call, and believe rates will be cut multiple times. There's quite a lot of uncertainty here, and the key Bank of England committee is split. The Bank's words will be very carefully watched.

More positively for the economy, despite a lot of rhetoric from retailers, many have delivered strong results and have not lowered their profits expectations. Are consumers a bit more robust than had been assumed, and could this drive some growth in 2025?

Growth strategy needs a reboot

The problem of servicing higher interest payments on the national debt increases the likelihood of the Treasury making plans for an adjustment, based on a squeeze on spending. A £10bn cut will hurt, but with a majority of 170 MPs in the House of Commons, and an ongoing spending review already in train, it can be done.

In these circumstances, with the credible threat of a global trade war, for example, it should be noted that Rachel Reeves' new fiscal rules do have an escape hatch.

In the event of "an emergency of a significant negative economic shock to the economy" the chancellor may "temporarily suspend the fiscal mandate".

While a global trade war could qualify, it would be difficult optics to suspend a "non-negotiable" and "iron-clad" set of rules before they had really bitten. The rules have not yet formally passed into law yet either, and remain a "draft" until the Commons votes to approve them.

It seems very unlikely that this route will be taken unless there is a very clear economic shock in the coming weeks.

The bigger point here is what matters in the markets, which is whether the UK is pursuing a credible set of policies, a convincing overall strategy.

Labour's focus on stability at all costs was understandable after the humiliation of Liz Truss's mini-Budget. But "stability" is not a growth strategy.

Pursuing green growth by borrowing for long-term capital investment is a potential strategy, and it underpinned "Bidenomics" in the US. The incoming government embraced the rhetoric of US policy under the outgoing president, without the same firepower. "Bidenomics without the money", you might say.

But now the new Trump administration is jettisoning this approach, rightly or wrongly, and the markets are less convinced that such a strategy will pay for itself. It will cost more to fund such a strategy, and require harsher trade-offs than expected.

Bidenomics without the money and without Biden is much too thin. A more detailed strategy for sustained growth is needed, and in short order.

Oldham abuse survivors criticise government over inquiry decision

BBC A blurred image of a woman with red hair wearing a black jumper in front of a man.BBC
The women want the prime minster to listen to their stories

The BBC has changed the names of the women in this article in order to protect their identity.

Three women who were left devastated by historical child sexual exploitation in Oldham have told the BBC ministers should have spoken to survivors before deciding not to conduct a government-led inquiry into grooming gangs in the town.

Jane and Amelia, who survived abuse more than 15 years ago, and Sarah, whose son was exploited in the town while he was in care, called on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to meet them and hear their stories.

Ministers rejected Oldham Council's request to conduct an inquiry, saying the council should lead it.

A government spokesperson said it would "always be guided" by survivors and that Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips would continue to engage with victims.

But they added "many victims have said they do not want to see another national inquiry - they want action now".

Jane and Amelia said they would like to see a full national inquiry, because they feel it is important to cover the experiences of survivors across the country.

Sarah, whose son was abused in his teens and died more than 10 years later, would have liked a government-led inquiry into abuse in Oldham, but would accept a local one if it is properly funded.

"This isn't for anyone's political gain. This is about real human beings," Amelia said.

The government has resisted calls from the Conservatives and Reform for a new national inquiry, saying that implementing recommendations from a 2022 report conducted by Prof Alexis Jay into child sexual abuse is its priority.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said a new national inquiry would help focus on grooming gangs, where the Jay report did not.

Billionaire Elon Musk has criticised the UK government over its response to grooming gangs on his social media platform X.

Amelia said that, even though she did not agree with many of Musk's beliefs, she was "glad" he had highlighted the issue.

Last weekend, Phillips and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed the council had started its own inquiry.

The Greater Manchester authority also undertook an independent review into sex abuse in Oldham in 2022, and found victims had been failed by the council and Greater Manchester Police.

Ministers have suggested they are keeping an open mind about a future national investigation if it becomes clear that survivors want one.

Jane was 12 when she moved to Oldham. She made friends with a girl older than her who introduced her to a man in his late forties.

"He started coming round, buying me phones, telling me not tell my parents," she said, "then he started introducing me to his friends."

Now more than a decade later, Jane struggles to recall in detail the number of men involved - but says for six years she was abused by a British-Pakistani grooming gang.

"There was one specific incident when I was plied with alcohol, plied with drugs, and I could not move. There were a group of men coming in and out of the room, I think there must have been four or five, basically raping me."

Jane told her mum, the police, the council and her social worker about what was going on.

"At one point, when the police had turned up, there was an illegal immigrant with me and they came and arrested me for prostitution," she said.

Jane left Oldham several years later.

"After a certain amount of time you lose respect for yourself and it becomes a normality," Jane said, fighting back tears.

"When you are a child, you don't really understand, but when you get older and you look back, I felt like it was me against the world."

As far as Jane knows, none of the men who abused her have been jailed.

Amelia was still at school when she was trafficked across the country for sex with multiple men a night.

The people who took her were white British, but she said those who abused her were from every background, race and class.

"There isn't just one narrative - the Pakistani grooming gangs," she said. "It is not anything to do with nationality or race."

Her experience was not reflected in Oldham's 2022 review on grooming. She strongly feels more work needs to be done to increase awareness of the sexual exploitation of minors.

Amelia described the impact grooming has had on her life. Her children have been taken into care, she has struggled to maintain relationships and has been in and out of psychiatric support.

"I don't even class myself as a human being anymore," she said. "I'm damaged goods, I'm broken."

She has also echoed Jane and Sarah's desire to meet the government on this issue.

"I'd love the opportunity to speak to those senior people who are making decisions on our lives, to meet or speak to them personally," she said.

A blurred image of a woman with blonde hair wearing black sat down on a sofa, with a chair in front of her.
All the women have been greatly impacted by their stories

Sarah's 13-year-old son reported being sexually abused while he was a looked-after child in Oldham in the 2000s.

"He'd gone locally into a business where it was easy to buy cigarettes and alcohol and that is where the grooming started," she said.

Her son was told he had to pay for the items by doing what the British-Pakistani owner wanted. She added the care home knew about the arrangement but did not question it.

"It totally destroyed him," she said. "He just wasn't the child he was to start with. He was a shadow of his former self."

In 2021, Sarah says he was going through the process of reporting the abuse to police but had a cardiac arrest and died.

"I feel like I let him down in his life and I don't think it's right I don't get justice for him just because he's not here," she said. "He is just as important as every other victim."

Councillor Arooj Shah, leader of Oldham Council, said the new local independent inquiry will build on the findings of the Greater Manchester review.

"We're working closely with survivors and survivors' families to ensure they don't just have a voice, but will have a central role in developing this inquiry. We expect terms of reference to be agreed in the coming months," Shah said.

Greater Manchester Police Assistant Chief Constable Steph Parker said "we absolutely recognise the lifelong impact of child sexual exploitation, which is why we are so committed to protecting victims and pursuing offenders. This is a tragic example that demonstrates the devastating trauma that comes with such horrific abuse."

Parker said child protection "is the priority" for the force today, with several ongoing.

"We have several ongoing victim-focused, non-recent CSE investigations being led by specialist investigators, which have led to over 100 arrests. Time is no barrier to action."

  • If you have been affected by the issues raised in this article, help and support is available via BBC Action Line.

Gaza war death toll could be significantly higher, researchers say

Reuters Mourners crouched with the covered body of a Palestinian killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza (03/01/25)Reuters

The Palestinian death toll from the war in Gaza could be substantially higher than official figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, research published in the Lancet medical journal suggests.

The UK-led study covered the first nine months of the war, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on 7 October 2023.

It used data from the ministry, an online survey of relatives reporting fatalities, and obituaries. It estimated that up until 30 June 2024, 64,260 Palestinians died from traumatic injury, meaning an under-reporting of deaths by 41%.

The Palestinian death toll has been a source of dispute, though the UN treats the health ministry's figures as reliable.

The ministry's figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians though a recent report by the UN said the majority of verified victims over a six month period were women and children.

Israel says Hamas's figures cannot be trusted. In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists", though it is unclear how it arrived at this figure. The IDF insists it only targets combatants and tries to avoid or minimise civilian casualties.

Israel is not allowing international journalists from media organisations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making it difficult to verify the facts on the ground.

The team behind the latest study used a statistical method called "capture-recapture", a technique which has been used to evaluate deaths in other conflicts.

Researchers looked at how many people turned up repeatedly in different attempts to count deaths. The level of overlap between those lists suggested that the number of deaths directly caused by traumatic injury in the conflict could be significantly higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health.

Gaza's health ministry issues updated death tolls from the war daily. It compiles the figures from deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members, and deaths from "reliable media reports".

The report in the Lancet estimated a death toll between 55,298–78,525 people, compared to 37,877 reported by the health ministry.

The report's figures could be meaningfully higher or lower depending on the technical details of the analysis.

For example, identifying deaths by "traumatic injury" in each set of data could be tricky. Getting it wrong could push the study's estimates higher or lower.

The research also said 59% of those killed for whom data on sex and age was available were women, children and the elderly.

The war in Gaza was triggered by Hamas's attack in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken back to Gaza as hostages. Israel launched a massive military offensive on Gaza in response.

The health ministry says 46,006 people, most of them civilians, have been killed by the Israeli campaign.

Another icy night for UK - but end of cold snap on horizon

PA Media A 4x4 makes its way through a snow-covered road in Scotton, Harrogate, North YorkshirePA Media
A 4x4 makes its way through a snow covered road in Harrogate, North Yorkshire

Commuters are being warned of icy roads and travel disruption, as temperatures plummeted again overnight across the UK.

Fresh weather warnings have been issued, with snow, ice and fog forecast across southern England, Wales, Northern Ireland and northern Scotland on Thursday.

It will be mainly dry elsewhere with winter sunshine, but temperatures could fall again to as low as -16C on Thursday night.

The cold snap has already brought heavy snowfall to some areas, and dozens of flood alerts and warnings are in place due to either heavy rain or melting snow.

On Wednesday the lowest temperature recorded was -8.4C (16F) in Shap, Cumbria, according to the Met Office.

It comes as an amber cold health alert remains in place for all of England until Sunday, meaning the forecast weather is expected to have significant impacts across health - including a rise in deaths.

The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher A sheep in Huddersfield in snow The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher
A sheep walks in snow in Huddersfield

The Met Office says travel disruption to road and rail services is likely on Thursday in areas covered by warnings, as well potential for accidents in icy places.

There are five warnings in place:

  • A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday
  • A yellow warning for ice has been issued until 10:30 across southern England and south-east Wales
  • Two yellow warnings for snow and ice are in force until 11:00 GMT - one across western Wales and north-west England, and south-west England; and another for Northern Ireland
  • A yellow warning for fog until 09:00 in Northern Ireland
Sue B/BBC Weather Watchers A snow sculpture in a garden in LeedsSue B/BBC Weather Watchers
A teenager made a snow sculpture of Venus in her garden in Leeds

On Wednesday snow caused some roads to close and motorists to be stationary for "long periods of time" in Devon and Cornwall, according to authorities there.

Gritters working into Thursday morning have been fitted with ploughs to clear routes in the area.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

"Cold conditions will last until at least the weekend, so we urge drivers to remain vigilant of the risks posed by ice and, in some locations, snow," said RAC breakdown spokeswoman Alice Simpson.

National Rail have also advised passengers to check before they travel, as ice and snow can mean speed restrictions and line closures.

On Wednesday evening, poor weather was affecting Northern and Great Western Railway.

Buses are also replacing trains between Llandudno Junction and Blaenau Ffestiniog until Monday.

Reuters An car covered in snow in Buxton Reuters
A car covered in snow on a road in Buxton, Derbyshire

The wintry conditions have caused significant disruption across the UK since snow swept many parts of the country at the weekend.

Hundreds of schools were closed in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, including schools in Yorkshire, Merseyside, the Midlands and Aberdeenshire.

The country has also been hit by widespread flooding in recent days. Currently there are 68 flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected - in England and three in Wales.

The weather is expected to be less cold over the weekend.

Fact-checking criticism of California officials over fires

Getty Images Donald Trump speaking at a conference. He is wearing a suit and tie, with his left arm raised.  Getty Images

The wildfires raging in Los Angeles have led to claims that officials there have mismanaged the city's preparation for such events.

President-elect Donald Trump has pointed the finger of blame at California Governor Gavin Newsom, who he says is responsible for LA's struggling water supply.

Others have blamed LA Mayor Karen Bass for cutting the city's fire department budget.

BBC Verify looked into the facts behind the political fallout.

What has Trump claimed?

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said Governor Newsom "refused to sign the water restoration declaration put before him that would have allowed millions of gallons of water" to put out the fires.

But the specific declaration he mentions doesn't appear to exist.

The governor's press office issued a statement in response, saying: "There is no such document as the water restoration declaration – that is pure fiction."

We've also searched for this document and been unable to find it.

Newsom has previously opposed efforts to redirect more water to southern California.

This includes a 2020 presidential memorandum in which Trump sought to divert water away from Northern California to farmland further south.

Newsom opposed this at the time, saying he wanted to protect "highly imperilled fish species close to extinction".

That is what Trump is referencing in his post blaming Newsom for the response to the wildfires, where he says the governor "wanted to protect an essentially worthless fish", Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has confirmed.

California's attorney general ultimately blocked the measure, citing potential harm to endangered species and saying that it was not scientifically justified.

Experts say this decision isn't impacting the efforts to tackle these wildfires.

"California is not experiencing water supply shortages at the moment, not in southern California or elsewhere," says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources.

"There is plenty of water in the reservoirs for firefighting or whatever you want to do with it," he adds.

Although southern California is currently experiencing a drought, data shows its reservoirs are almost all currently above the historic average for this time of the year. None are at significantly low levels.

Getty Images Wildfires in LA. A swimming pool is seen in the foreground as flames surround the forest behind it. Getty Images

Is there is 'no water for fire hydrants'?

Trump has also said that there was "no water for fire hydrants".

There have been reports that certain fire hydrants have run dry.

This is down to high demand placing a heavy strain on the system, according to local officials and experts.

In Pasadena, Fire Chief Chad Augustin said the area experienced a short period of time where pressure was low on a small amount of hydrants. All issues had been resolved, he added.

"There are very localised incidents of this unfolding where the fire hydrants have had insufficient water pressure for firefighters to use them, but that's not because LA is running out of water," says Mr Swain.

"There are thousands of firefighters and hundred of fire engines drawing upon water, and ultimately only so much can flow through pipes at a time."

Did LA Mayor cut fire department budget?

LA Mayor Karen Bass has faced criticism over cuts to the city's fire department budget.

For the latest financial year, the LA Fire Department (LAFD) budget was reduced by $17.6m (£14.3m).

In a memo to Mayor Bass last month, LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley warned that the cuts had "severely limited the department's capacity to prepare for, train for, and respond to large-scale emergencies, such as wildfires".

Mayor Bass responded to the criticism, saying: "I think if you go back and look at the reductions that were made, there were no reductions that were made that would have impacted the situation that we were dealing with over the last couple of days."

The LAFD has an overall budget of almost $820m (£670m), and it isn't the only department responding to the fires.

For example, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and the Los Angeles County Fire Department are part of the relief efforts, along with the federal government.

"LA County has some of the most advanced and sophisticated wildfire fighting resources of any location in the world. If you had to chose one place on earth that was best place to tackle this sort of disaster, it would be LA county," says Mr Swain.

"The disaster isn't as bad as it is because there's a lack of resource, the reality is there's a limit to how effective wildland firefighting can be under extreme conditions like we experienced this week."

Additional reporting by Joshua Cheetham.

BBC Verify logo

LA celebrities lose homes, share reactions to wildfires

Getty Images A small plane dropping water over mansions in a densely populated area, as smoke fills the area behind themGetty Images

The affluent Los Angeles neighbourhood of Pacific Palisades typically has strangers walking around, trying to catch a glimpse of celebrities' houses.

Now, though, its streets are filled with firefighters battling a 3,000-acre wildfire that is ravaging the area.

Across the city, more than 30,000 have been forced to evacuate their homes as winds stoke three fires. A state of emergency has been declared, leaving roads gridlocked as people flee.

Among them, a number of famous faces have been forced to flee their usually idyllic California homes, including Star Wars' Mark Hamill and Schitt's Creek actor Eugene Levy.

James Woods, who has starred in films including Nixon and Casino, described evacuating his home on social media, and said he was not sure if it was still standing.

"It feels like losing a loved one," he wrote.

Pacific Palisades is known for being exclusive, with a house costing $4.5m (£3.6m) on average as of November 2024, according to Realtor.com.

The north LA neighbourhood is bordered on the south with a three-mile (4.8km) stretch of beaches on the Pacific Ocean, nestled between Malibu and Santa Monica.

It is a hub for trendy shops, cafes and a farmers' market.

But the Palisades fire - which grew from 10 acres to over 2,900 in a matter of hours - has shattered they area's idyllic nature.

Mark Hamill, of Star Wars fame, called the blaze the "most horrific fire since '93" - which burned 18,000 acres and destroyed 323 homes in nearby Malibu - in a post on Instagram.

He said he evacuated his home in Malibu "so last-minute there [were] small fires on both sides of the road".

Levy, who rose to fame for his role in film series American Pie, told local media he was forced to evacuate his home.

"The smoke looked pretty black and intense over Temescal Canyon. I couldn't see any flames but the smoke was very dark," he recounted to the Los Angeles Times.

Reality star's Spencer Pratt and Heidi Montag lost their family home in the fire, his sister wrote on Instagram.

"I am beyond heartbroken for my brother, Heidi and the kids," she said. "Even the fire station in the Palisades has burned down."

Miles Teller, best known for his role in Top Gun: Maverick, and his wife Keleigh, also live in the area.

Posting on Instagram, Mrs Teller shared a picture of the fires and a heart-break emoji. She urged people to leave bowls of water for animals as they evacuate their homes.

Meanwhile, Actor Steve Guttenberg, known for Police Academy, stayed to help firefighters by moving cars in order to make room for incoming fire trucks.

He urged residents to leave the keys to their abandoned cars so they could be moved out the way of firefighters.

"We really need people to move their cars," he told news outlet KTLA: "This is not a parking lot."

Getty Images The Getty Villa sign on top of a wall, with bright orange fire right behind itGetty Images

It is not just famous residents affected by the wildfire - notable buildings in the area are under threat as well.

The Palisades Charter High School - which has served as a set for movies and counts several notable people as former students - has been damaged by fire, local media reports.

The fire-stricken school has been used in films including 1976 horror classic Carrie and Project X, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Former students include director JJ Abrams, musician Will.i.am, and actors Forest Whitaker and Katey Sagal.

The Getty Villa is an art museum in the Palisades that has a large collection of artworks and artefacts, including works by Vincent van Gogh and Claude Monet.

The museum confirmed on Tuesday that it had closed to the public and that some trees and vegetation on site had burned - but said that "no structures are on fire, and staff and the collection remain safe".

Star studded events due to take place in the area have also been cancelled.

Film premiers for Unstoppable, Better Man and Wolfman have been called off, as has the Screen Actors Guild Awards live nominations event.

英财相无视反对执意访华  彭定康:向中国下跪也难救英国经济

英国财相里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)访华前夕,连日来有议员要求她取消行程,以回应港府悬红通缉居英港人及处理国内经济危机。前香港总督彭定康(Lord Chris Patten)更断言里夫斯此行不会有任何收获,直指向中国“下跪”也难以拯救英国经济。而被悬红通缉的在英港人及人权组织则呼吁里夫斯就人权问题向中方交涉,不应牺牲人权换取经济利益。

过去几天,英国国会相继就港府在平安夜悬红通缉多名居英港人,以及国内经济动荡进行紧急辩论。各在野政党的议员都要求财政大臣里夫斯取消访华行程,以留在英国专注处理近日英镑暴跌、政府借贷成本飙升的经济危机。

不过,里夫斯仍如期动身,预计会在周末访问北京和上海。英伦银行行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)及汇丰控股主席杜嘉祺(Mark Tucker)预料也会随团,商讨加强英中两国的经贸合作。

彭定康:英国贬低自己使我苦恼

前香港总督彭定康在英国第四台(Channel 4)周四(1月9日)发布的报道中断言,里夫斯此行不能扭转国内经济形势。他引述数据指出,中国对英国的直接投资(FDI)只占整体总额的0.2%,无法拯救英国经济:“使我苦恼的不单是我们的行为有多贬低自己,而是我们和中国交手时,没有任何向其‘下跪‘的证据基础。你不应准备好埋葬你原本相信的东西。”

彭定康批评英国国内不少人妄想向中国出口更多商品、引入更多中国投资,就必须向北京下跪、跟从其政治取向,甚至无视香港传媒大亨黎智英被囚禁,以及北京对在英港人的监控等。他认为,若英国只能在会议纪录中低调提出这些问题就当已经捍卫了自身价值,“那就只能求主保佑我们了” (then God help us all)。

前香港总督彭定康表示,里夫斯此行不能扭转英国国内经济形势。
前香港总督彭定康表示,里夫斯此行不能扭转英国国内经济形势。
(记者石头拍摄/RFA资料图片)

被通缉港人:英国对中国有不切实际的遐想

海外港人组织“香港民主委员会”(HKDC) 国际倡议与项目高级干事刘珈汶是最新被港府列入悬红通缉名单的在英港人之一。她接受本台访问,同样无法理解为何英国政府未能掌握中国最新的政经形势。

刘珈汶说:“英国或其他对中国友善的国家对中国的经济是有一个遐想,而这遐想我觉得是不切实际。他们会觉得,我们有经济问题,就要和一些经济大国或物理上的大国有更紧密的合作。但华语圈的朋友都会留意到,中国国内经济下滑,中国内部政治状况,甚至共产党内的纷争、斗争,或一些潜在的对习近平的危机,其实已经慢慢浮现。”

她提到,英国外相拉米(David Lammy)和外交部政务次官韦斯特(Catherine West)去年已相继访问中港,英国高层频繁访华,向世界展示两国想恢复友好关系的姿态,甚至有意重建“小黄金时代”,是受压迫的在英港人所不乐见的。

倡议组织促财相勿牺牲人权换经济利益

刘珈汶呼吁里夫斯访华期间捍卫人权与民主,以人权问题为先,不应牺牲人权换取经济利益;并应争取释放香港政治犯、制裁侵犯人权的港官、撤销香港驻伦敦经贸办的外交特权,及阻止中国在伦敦兴建“超级大使馆”等。

本台记者翻查资料,过去半年,每次英中高层会面后,英方都会发声明,强调有向北京提到人权问题,却至今不见实际行动。刘珈汶呼吁英国政府不要“只说不做”。她认为,制裁港官及检视香港经贸办的地位是英国政府和中国建立关系同时,最简单直接可采取的行动。

刘珈汶说:“我们一直期望有一些果断行为,显示英国有心向中国和香港人权侵犯者问责。我们当然不会觉得他们出一个声明,或在一个‘清喉咙‘的场合上像剔除清单事项般说说就当做了。这使很多英国香港人非常失望,及对英国政府慢慢地失去信心。”

国际特赦组织也发表声明,呼吁里夫斯利用访华之行挑战北京对人权的“残酷镇压”。国际特赦组织英国外交政策顾问特拉斯科特(Polly Truscott)强调,在与中国达成任何经济、安全或其他协议时,必须以尊重人权为核心。该组织呼吁里夫斯直接提出针对在英倡议者的跨国镇压问题,并呼吁释放黎智英等被囚港人。

责编:何平 网编:洪伟

© 路透社图片

图为英国财政大臣里夫斯。里夫斯将在周末访华。
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