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霸王茶姬:星巴克门徒的崛起与隐忧

“大单品对霸王茶姬的贡献或许说明,在茶饮的竞争中,效率比口味更重要。”

“茶颜做出来的红利,被霸王占了。”

“它一方面把规模做大了,另一方面把效率降低了,这是一把双刃剑。”

南方周末记者 卫琳聪

责任编辑:冯叶

云南大州的霸王茶姬理想邦观云海店。视觉中国/图

云南大理的霸王茶姬理想邦观云海店。视觉中国/图

近日,新式茶饮公司霸王茶姬公布招股书,计划赴美上市。比起已经上市的新茶饮品牌,2017年才在云南创立的霸王茶姬属于后来者。

但创立不到8年便冲刺上市,在普遍创立十多年才上市的新茶饮公司中可谓迅速,速度仅次于“新茶饮第一股”奈雪的茶(02150.HK)。

和奈雪的茶流血上市不同,霸王茶姬已经实现盈利。招股书显示,霸王茶姬2023年扭亏为盈,实现净利润802.6万元。2024年净利润大增213.3%,超过25亿元。 

霸王茶姬门店数量也快速增加。2023年1月全球门店数突破1000家,到2024年底已经达到6440 家,覆盖全国32个省份。两年时间开出五千多家门店,平均每天新开7.5家。

1993年出生的创始人张俊杰毫不掩饰野心,他提出霸王茶姬要“像素级对标星巴克”,并在2024年5月的一场论坛活动中立下目标,全年销售额要总体超过星巴克中国。

星巴克门徒是如何快速崛起的?

“大单品策略”

霸王茶姬创立时,新式茶饮市场的主打产品是由喜茶等品牌带火的水果茶。霸王茶姬选择从原叶鲜奶茶切入,以新鲜茶叶和牛奶为主要原料,减少使用运输要求高、损耗大的水果。

其致力于将奶茶变成更接近于咖啡的标准品。在招股书中,这种“茶+牛奶”产生的原叶鲜奶茶被称为“茶拿铁(Tea latte)”。由此衍生出另外两条核心产品线:加奶盖的Teapuccino、采用茶叶萃取液的Teaspresso,分别对应咖啡中的卡布奇诺和美式。

围绕这一产品思路,霸王茶姬的菜单相比其他茶饮品牌更为精简。招股书公布的核心产品仅19款,2022-2024年推出的新品数量分别为14款、22款、15款。新式茶饮老大蜜雪冰城(02097.HK)2024年前9个月推出105款新品。

这些数量不多的核心产品为霸王茶姬贡献了大部分营收。招股书显示,2022-2024年,霸王茶姬在中国境内产生的GMV(商品交易总额)约八成来自原叶鲜奶茶产品,2024年这一比例高达91%。

三年间,霸王茶姬每年约一半GMV都来自于最畅销的三款产品。

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校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

陆铭:城市发展需要适应代际变化 多问问年轻人要什么

一线城市把成本做得越高,一些对成本比较敏感的企业,就越会往新一线和二线城市搬。正好新一线、二线落户几乎没有限制,大家发现杭州的政策是“来了就是杭州人”。 

伴随着代际的变革,90后、00后会逐渐成为消费的主体。2040年是90后50岁的时代,00后40岁的时代。我们今天讲城市发展,是讲中长期发展,不是讲今天和明天,所以要少讲我喜欢什么,多问问年轻人要什么,这里有非常明显的代际变化。

南方周末研究员 石登江 南方周末实习生 曾佳韵

责任编辑:戴春晨

据最新公布的2024年人口数据,深圳、广州常住人口增长均在15万以上。此前,一线城市人口曾出现减缓甚至是负增长。不少大城市的常住人口数据出现波动,但又逐渐恢复增长态势。

不久前,“杭州六小龙”、电影《哪吒2》创造票房神话等热点事件,引发国内不少城市对人才、人口吸引力的深思。“以生活留人”和“以事业留人”如何兼得?

全国政协委员、上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院特聘教授、中国发展研究院执行院长陆铭近日接受南方周末专访。他指出,国内人口向一线城市集中的趋势不会变化。杭州的成功值得大大点赞,但背后也有一线城市的“神助攻”,理想的状态是不要对人口有行政性限制,让企业和个人能够自由地发展。

陆铭认为,用学历来划分人才是非常落后、保守的思想,很多创新企业的创始人就是本科生。城市发展不能只看高技能人才,限制人口会给大城市带来伤害。

全国政协委员、上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院特聘教授、中国发展研究院执行院长陆铭。(受访者供图/图)

杭州的成功背后有一线城市的“神助攻”

南方周末:2021到2022年,一线城市的人口增长出现了停滞,甚至是负增长,现在又回到正向增长。人口向一线城市集中的趋势会不会变化?

陆铭:不会。但是人口增长的快慢取决于经济增长结构的变化和一线城市的政策。经济增长越快,人口集聚越快,产业结构变化越快,直到最后城市间人口逐步趋于稳定。

当前社会各界普遍存在重制造轻服务的倾向。今年两会期间,政府工作报告已经明确把“投资于人”放到未来的工作目标里。投资于人涉及很多服务业,能更快地带动服务业的发展。

现在制造业本身持续出现就业负增长,其中一个原因是机器人对人的替代,如果这些因素加快,劳动者就会流入服务业,进一步向大城市集中。客观上讲,人口会往大城市集中,但同时,如果一线城市户籍卡得很严,公共服务均等化不足,这个进程就会放缓。

南方周末:年初,杭州和成都特别火,好像一线城市没有那些追求舒适、可以让大家慢下来干一番事业的城市那么吃香。怎么理解这一现象?

陆铭:有三个方面的原因。一是杭州、成都有自己的优势。这里面有综合的生活品质因素。这两座城市比较休闲、风景宜人,消费比较繁荣。另外,这两座城市对于民营经济比较包容。当地的高校,对于创新有所支持。虽然这两座城市在中国排不到一线,但放到国际上都是大城市。

二是如果比较一线城市和准一线或者二线城市谁更适合创业,房价、人工成本非常重要。对这两项成本最敏感的行业是科技类的企业,对于某些生产要素,他们反而没那么需要。相对来讲,具有很强的文艺特性、偏文科的行业和一些跨国公司总部类的企业,对一线城市的黏性更强。

三是一线城市、二线城市之间政策存在差异。我们需要反过来问,一线城市是不是因为政策抬高了人力和住房成本(才导致人才外流)。一线城市把成本做得越高,一些对成本比较敏感的企业,就越会往新一线和二线城市搬。正好新一线、二线落户几乎没有限制,大家发现杭州的政策是“来了

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校对:赵立宇

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

血液病专家陆道培院士逝世

北京大学人民医院微信公众号

讣 告

中国共产党党员、中国农工民主党党员,中国工程院院士,我国著名血液病学和造血干细胞移植专家,政协第九届全国委员会常委、政协第九届北京市委员会副主席,北京大学人民医院原内科主任,北京大学血液病研究所创始所长陆道培同志因病医治无效,于2025年4月2日16时58分在北京逝世,享年93岁。

陆道培同志1931年10月30日出生于上海,祖籍浙江宁波。1955年毕业于中南同济医学院(现华中科技大学同济医学院),后任职于北京中央人民医院(现北京大学人民医院)。1981年创建北京大学血液病研究所并担任所长,1984年任中华医学会副会长,1986年任北京大学人民医院内科主任、北京大学血液病国家重点学科带头人(首席专家)。1992年,他发起创建中华骨髓库,1996年建立国内首家脐带血库。1996年当选中国工程院院士。2000年任中华医学会血液学分会主任委员。

陆道培同志于1964年成功完成国内首例异体同基因骨髓移植,该病例是亚洲第一例、世界第四例移植成功病例,更是全球范围内术后生存时间最长的成功案例。1981年,他成功完成国内首例HLA(人类白细胞抗原)相合异基因骨髓移植,开创了我国骨髓移植治疗先河,使众多白血病患者重获新生。在此后十余年时间里,陆道培同志带领团队在造血干细胞移植领域取得多项突破性进展:成功完成国内首例非血缘造血干细胞移植;成功完成国内首例ABO主要血型不相合骨髓移植;成功完成国内首例超大体重成人双份非血缘脐血移植;首次证实混合胎肝细胞移植可降低移植物抗宿主病(GVHD)风险;创新性发现单倍型异基因骨髓与去T细胞自体骨髓混合移植可形成嵌合体而不引起GVHD。他通过实验证实大蒜提取物具有抗巨细胞病毒作用,胎盘丙种球蛋白对GVHD具有治疗效果。通过系列技术创新,我国HLA相合移植5年生存率达到国际领先水平。鉴于陆道培同志对中国血液病学发展做出的重大贡献,他先后荣获国家科学技术进步二等奖(1985年)、“何梁何利”奖和陈嘉庚奖(1997年)、中华医学会科技进步二等奖(2006年)、北京市科技进步一等奖(2006年)、美国骨髓移植学会(CIBMTR)“杰出服务贡献奖”(2016年)。

陆道培同志毕生致力于中国医学事业,以医学发展为使命、以国人健康为己任,呕心沥血、勤勉工作。作为医学家、教育家和临床科学家,他矢志不渝、求索不息,在中国血液病学领域取得开创性成就,为无数血液病患者带来希望,谱写了我国血液病学发展的壮丽篇章。他躬耕杏林、桃李芬芳,培养出两院院士、博士及博士后等大批医学领域杰出人才。他的言传身教激励着一代又一代医务工作者勇敢追求理想、不断追求卓越。

陆道培同志的辞世是我国医学界、教育界和科学界的巨大损失!他的贡献永载史册,他的精神永存人间!

沉痛悼念并深切缅怀陆道培同志!

陆道培同志遗体告别仪式定于2025年4月8日(星期二)上午8时,在八宝山殡仪馆东礼堂举行。

北京大学人民医院

2025年4月3日

网络编辑:明非

特朗普关税震惊全球,各国在忧虑和愤怒中寻求应对措施

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特朗普关税震惊全球,各国在忧虑和愤怒中寻求应对措施

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS
周四,台湾台北的一家电子产品商店。
周四,台湾台北的一家电子产品商店。 Ann Wang/Reuters
来自台湾的笔记本电脑,来自意大利的葡萄酒,来自印度的冷冻虾,越南生产的耐克运动鞋,还有爱尔兰黄油。
这些产品遍布全美各地的家庭,彰显着美国多年来作为自由贸易捍卫者的身份,也证明了它作为全球最具吸引力市场的地位。
在特朗普总统周三宣布对所有美国贸易伙伴实施普遍关税,并对他认定为“不公平贸易行为最严重”的60个国家额外征收更高关税后,这些产品如今都名列需要缴纳额外关税的商品类别之中。
特朗普对所有进口至美国的商品统一征收10%的基准关税,这与美国数十年来的政策背道而驰。此外,从下周起,美国还将对其他国家征收更高的所谓“对等关税”。
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白宫对美国最大的两个贸易伙伴欧盟和中国分别征收20%和34%的关税。其中,对中国的额外关税将在特朗普此前实施的20%关税基础上追加。
即便是日本和韩国这样的亲密盟友也未能幸免。而澳大利亚和巴西等从美国购买的商品多于对美出口的国家也受到影响。
特朗普总统周三在白宫宣布关税。
特朗普总统周三在白宫宣布关税。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
特朗普称赞这是美国的“解放日”,但这一宣布震惊了全世界,并引发了全球贸易战的担忧。股市应声下跌,关税的规模和范围令投资者感到措手不及。
在不到三个月的时间里,特朗普宣布了对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收的关税,还有对钢铁、铝、汽车及汽车零部件加征进口税。周三发布的行政命令对半导体、药品和木材给予了豁免,但分析人士认为,这些行业并未真正被排除在外,而是下一轮关税的潜在目标。
盟友与对手都在努力试图弄清特朗普的关税攻势究竟是怎么回事,这已经使美国进口税率升至一个多世纪以来最高水平,并且没有任何放缓迹象。有些国家威胁进行报复,另一些公开要求谈判,还有的通过秘密渠道寻求让步。
中国指责美国“单边霸凌”,并誓言将采取“坚决反制措施,以维护自身权利和利益”。韩国召开紧急工作小组会议,承诺“动用一切政府资源,以克服贸易危机”。巴西总统卢拉的政府则表示正在评估反制措施。
巴西国会周三批准立法,授权总统采取报复行动。
巴西国会周三批准立法,授权总统采取报复行动。 Evaristo Sa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在周四早晨的讲话中表示,这些关税将使全球经济“遭受重大损害”。她呼吁进行谈判,但同时也表示,除了此前针对美国对外国钢铁和铝征收的关税而准备的报复性关税之外,欧盟还在准备进一步的反制措施。
亚洲受特朗普的关税政策冲击尤为严重。越南是特朗普第一任总统任期内企业将生产迁出中国的受益者,如今被征收46%的关税。台湾、泰国和印度尼西亚的进口商品分别被征收超过30%的关税,印度商品税率为26%。
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数十年来,出口一直是亚洲发展中国家摆脱冲突、危机或贫困,走向经济繁荣的重要途径。最新关税不仅惩罚了台湾和日本等通过贸易实现现代化的经济体,也使柬埔寨和孟加拉国等仍在寻求这一道路的贫困国家前景更加黯淡。
服装和鞋类生产国柬埔寨被征收49%的关税。美国是该国最大的出口市场。
柬埔寨执政党人民党发言人速恩山表示:“作为一个小国,我们只想生存下去。”
柬埔寨一家中资纺织厂面临49%的关税。
柬埔寨一家中资纺织厂面临49%的关税。 Yang Qiang/China News Service/VCG, via Getty Images
特朗普指责来自这些国家的廉价商品导致美国制造业空心化。然而,这些商品同时也有助于控制通货膨胀,对美国消费者来说,它们降低了物价。
华盛顿昆西负责任治国方略研究所全球南方项目主任萨朗·希多尔表示,受这些关税打击最严重的将是几个发展中国家,同时还会鼓励世界大部分地区更快地走向一个不再以美国为中心的秩序。
“谈到贸易,我们处于一个多极世界,存在替代市场。当然,多元化会带来痛苦和交易成本,”他说。
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澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯表示,他的国家不会以报复性关税作为回应,并发誓澳大利亚不会“加入导致价格上涨和增长放缓的竞相压价”。
在日本,官员和贸易专家对该国将面临的24%新关税规模措手不及。鉴于日本对非农产品的平均关税为全球最低,这尤其令人震惊。日本称该关税“令人极为遗憾”,并誓言将继续寻求豁免。
日本首相石破茂承诺将增加日本投资至约1万亿美元,重点购买更多美国产品,例如液化天然气。
三得利位于日本山崎的一家酿酒厂,该公司首席执行官表示,他相信日本将能够通过与特朗普政府的谈判降低关税。
三得利位于日本山崎的一家酿酒厂,该公司首席执行官表示,他相信日本将能够通过与特朗普政府的谈判降低关税。 Richard A. Brooks/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
在最新关税宣布之前,以高端威士忌品牌闻名的日本饮料巨头三得利控股首席执行官新浪刚史表示,他相信关税可以通过谈判降低,因为日本是美国最大的外国投资者。
“可能会出现一段混乱时期,”他说。“但最终,局势会稳定下来。”
根据数据分析公司Exiger的计算,特朗普宣布的措施每年将给美国带来6000亿美元的新关税。大部分征税将来自10个国家,中国出口占新增关税的四分之一,为1490亿美元。越南商品将面临630亿美元的关税,台湾产品面临370亿美元,日本出口面临360亿美元。德国和爱尔兰商品合计将面临410亿美元的额外征税。
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在特朗普首次担任总统期间,科技公司将部分生产转移到越南,以防范可能与中国发生的贸易战。现在,越南三分之一的出口产品是电子产品。
过去几年,苹果将AirPods、手表和iPad的生产转移到越南。该公司还将部分iPhone生产转移到印度,此前多年该公司的生产完全依赖中国工厂。
自近二十年前在越南开设工厂以来,韩国企业集团三星电子已在越南投资超过200亿美元。它现在在越南生产的商品比中国还多。去年,该公司在越南工厂生产了价值约700亿美元的商品,其中大部分用于出口。
越南海防的一家电子工厂。
越南海防的一家电子工厂。 Linh Pham for The New York Times
特朗普的政策也使美国小型企业的决策变得复杂。总部位于加州托伦斯的玩具制造商Move2Play的联合创始人布伦登·麦克莫罗表示,自大约九年前成立以来,该公司的所有产品都在中国生产。但为了避免受到中国进口关税的影响,该公司开始考虑在越南或印度建厂。
在越南,该公司发现,那些中国公司运营、使用中国原材料的工厂并不便宜多少。因此,公司决定在印度试生产一款玩具——麦克莫罗说,鉴于越南面临的高额关税,在印度试生产的决定现在看起来显得更明智了。该公司研究了是否可以在美国生产,但他说成本大约是在中国的五倍。
尽管关税成本较高,但他认为现在在美国生产并不可行。
广告
“我认为,如果下一任总统上任后突然取消所有关税,那么在美国投资大量制造确实没有意义,那你就将陷入困境,”他说。“更合理的做法是坚持我们目前的制造模式,不要采取冒险的重大举措。”

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Is South Africa's coalition government about to fall apart?

AFP South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (L) smiles as DA leader John Steenhuisen (C) shakes hands with South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile (R) - all wearing dark grey suits and ties - at the sitting of parliament for the swearing in of cabinet minister - July 2024.AFP
DA leader John Steenhuisen pictured with President Ramaphosa (L) and Deputy President Paul Mashatile (R) not long after their coalition was formed

South Africa's coalition government is on shaky ground, with the sharp divisions between its two biggest parties - the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) - exposed in a crucial vote on the national budget.

The centre-right DA voted against the fiscal framework - a key part of the budget - after rejecting an increase in VAT, and demanding a cut in spending across all government departments.

The ANC, which positions itself as a centre-left party, refused to bow to what it called the DA's demand for an "austerity budget".

It demonstrated its political acumen by winning the support of a slew of smaller parties - both inside and outside government - to get the fiscal framework through parliament by 194 votes to 182.

The DA filed papers in court to challenge the vote, saying it was "procedurally flawed" while its top leadership is due to meet later to decide whether or not to remain in what South Africans call a government of national unity (GNU).

Professor William Gumede, an academic at Wits University's school of governance in Johannesburg, told the BBC it was unclear whether the DA would quit the government at this stage.

"It will be asking itself whether this is the tipping-point or whether it should wait - at least until the outcome of the court case," Prof Gumede said.

The coalition government was formed less than a year ago after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in elections for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994 at the end of white-minority rule.

South Africa's business sector lobbied the two parties to enter into a coalition, seeing it as the best option to guarantee economic stability.

But hinting that the DA's participation was no longer certain, DA spokesman Willie Aucamp accused the ANC of a "serious infraction" and said the party had "crossed a line in the sand".

DA federal chair Helen Zille said the party would consider all its options, and not rush into a decsion.

"We know that being in a coalition requires compromise. You can't get it all. But the ANC also can't get it all, and they are refusing, point blank, to share power," Zille added.

The ANC took an equally tough stand, with its parliamentary chief whip, Mdumiseni Ntuli, accusing the DA of "complete betrayal" by breaking ranks with its partners in the GNU.

"The DA is a member, or was a member," Ntuli said.

"I don't know what is going to happen with them now, but the GNU remains," he added, referring to the fact that other parties in the 10-member coalition remain committed to it.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's spokesman Vincent Magwenya also threw down the gauntlet to the DA, saying: "You can't be part of a government whose budget you opposed."

The DA found itself voting alongside South Africa's two biggest, and most populist, opposition parties - former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Advocating the nationalisation of key sectors of the economy, these two parties are the impeccable foes of the pro-business DA.

But the three parties were united in opposing a VAT increase, believing it would hit the poor hard.

As DA leader John Steenhuisen put it: "The ANC is out of touch with the people, and if they bought their own groceries or filled their own tanks, they would know how expensive life already is."

But the ANC argued that a VAT increase - set at 0.5% this year and a further 0.5% next year - was necessary to raise revenue, and to offer public services such as health and education.

Crucially, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) voted with the ANC, signalling the end of the alliance it formed with the DA in the build-up to the election in a failed bid to keep Ramaphosa's party out of power.

ActionSA - a small opposition party which broke away from the DA - helped the ANC clinch the vote.

It said it had reached a deal with the ANC that would see the VAT increase scrapped, while alternative ways of raising revenue for the government are explored.

"Yesterday's [Wednesday's] adoption of the report on the fiscal framework was merely one step in a multi-stage budgeting process before the final budget is approved," ActionSA said in a statement.

Getty Images A woman with the logo of the Democratic Alliance painted in blue on her face at the DA's manifesto launch in Pretoria, South Africa - February 2024. Getty Images
Prof Gumede says the DA has taken the opportunity to show "it is pro-poor"

Prof Gumede said the ANC would find it difficult to convince the public to pay more taxes when public services were crumbling.

"The optics don't look good for the ANC," he told the BBC.

"The DA has taken the budget as an opportunity to make a big impact, and to show it is pro-poor."

The dispute over the budget is the latest sign of the sharp differences between the two parties, with the DA also challenging in the courts three other pieces of legislation - including the land expropriation act.

This law was one of the issues that led to US President Donald Trump's administration cutting aid to South Africa.

The Trump administration has now imposed tariffs of 30% on all South African imports, in a move that is likely to be a huge blow to its already floundering economy.

"They have got some bad things going on in South Africa. You know, we are paying them billions of dollars, and we cut the funding because a lot of bad things are happening in South Africa," the US president said, before going on to name other countries.

In a statement, Ramaphosa's office condemned the new tariffs as "punitive", saying they could "serve as a barrier to trade and shared prosperity".

But for many South Africans, the tariffs signal the need for the two biggest parties to resolve their differences and work together - or risk seeing the nation sink into a deeper economic crisis at a time when the unemployment rate is already at more than 30%.

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UK set to host 2035 Women's World Cup

UK set to host 2035 Women's World Cup

The Spanish team celebrating their win and holding the World Cup trophyImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Spain won the 2023 Women's World Cup in Australia and New Zealand

  • Published

The United Kingdom is set to host the 2035 Women's World Cup after being the only valid bid received by Fifa, the organisation that runs international football.

Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland put forward a joint bid in March.

Fifa has already stated that the tournament must be in Europe or Africa.

There was a suggestion that Spain alongside Portugal and Morocco might be putting a bid forward, but Fifa president Gianni Infantino said the UK's was the only valid one received.

Meanwhile, the United States are set to host the 2031 Women's World Cup.

"The path is there for the Women's World Cup in 2031 and 2035 to take place in some great nations and further boost the women's football movement," Gianni Infantino said.

In 2031, 48 teams are due to compete up from the 32 teams competing in the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Russia not on Trump's tariff list

Reuters View of sunny MoscowReuters
Local media say Moscow's absence is "to the disappointment of many in the West"

One country that did not feature on Donald Trump's list of tariffs on US trade partners was Russia.

US outlet Axios quoted White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying this was because existing US sanctions on Russia "preclude any meaningful trade" and noting that Cuba, Belarus and North Korea were also not included.

However, nations with even less trade with the US - such as Syria, which exported $11m of products last year according to UN data quoted by Trading Economics - were on the list.

The US imposed large-scale sanctions on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump has generally taken a friendlier approach to Russia since his return to the White House.

He has made ending the war a priority and a top Russian official is in Washington this week for meetings with his administration, as negotiations continue on a deal.

Last month, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on countries buying Russian oil if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.

On Thursday, Russian media also argued that their country was not on the sweeping tariffs list because of existing sanctions.

"No tariffs have been imposed on Russia, but that's not because of some special treatment. It's simply because Western sanctions are already in place against our country," says state-run Rossiya 24 TV.

According to its sister channel Rossiya 1, Russia is missing from the list "to the disappointment of many in the West".

Many Kremlin-controlled media outlets have specifically referred to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told Fox News: "Russia and Belarus, we don't trade with. They're sanctioned."

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported goods from Russia worth $3.5bn (£2.7bn) in 2024. It mainly consisted of fertilisers, nuclear fuel and some metals, according to Trading Economics and Russian media.

Some of the Russian coverage has taken a mocking tone, with pro-Kremlin NTV saying Trump treated America's allies in Europe as "serfs" who only respond with "moaning".

Many, such as Zvezda TV which is run by Russia's defence ministry, note the inclusion of uninhabited Heard Island and McDonald Islands on the tariffs list.

"Looks like it's some penguins who will have to pay the 10% tariff," Zvezda said.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is facing a 10% tariff on its exports to the US.

The country's first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, said the new US tariff would mostly hit small producers.

She also said Ukraine was "working to secure better terms".

In 2024, Ukraine exported $874m (£642m) worth of goods to the US and imported $3.4bn from the US, according to the deputy prime minister.

"Ukraine has much to offer the United States as a reliable ally and partner," she added. "Fair tariffs benefit both countries."

Despite the small scale of trade, the US has provided significant material support for the war against Russia. Trump has argued that the US has spent $300-$350bn on such aid, while the US Department of Defense said $182.8bn had been "appropriated" - a figure that covers US military training in Europe and replenishment of US defence stocks - for Operation Atlantic Resolve.

The US has also been attempting to reach a deal for access to Ukrainian minerals as part of negotiations to end the war.

特朗普狂征关税 欧中抱团取暖还是相互防范?

德才
2025-04-03T15:05:47.764Z
特朗普在白宫玫瑰园向记者展示签署的关税文件

(德国之声中文网)就在4月3日的中国商务部新闻发布会上,发言人何亚东对美国宣布加征“对等关税”之决定大加抨击,表示会“坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益”。何亚东提到,已经有“很多贸易伙伴表达强烈不满和明确反对”,指出“历史证明,提高关税解决不了美国自身问题,既损害美国自身利益,也危及全球经济发展和产供链稳定”。中方敦促“美方立即取消单边关税措施,与贸易伙伴通过平等对话妥善解决分歧”。

值得注意的是,中国商务部发言人在抨击美国时,多次提及“很多贸易伙伴”。就在同一场新闻发布会上,何亚东就披露说,几天前,中国商务部长与到访的欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇(Maroš Šefčovič)举行会谈,“双方同意尽快重启电动汽车反补贴案价格承诺谈判,为推动中欧企业开展投资和产业合作营造良好环境。鉴于案情复杂,应欧方请求,中方决定依法延长白兰地反倾销案调查期限。”

在接受德国之声采访时,曾多年任欧盟驻中国商会主席的伍德克(Jörg Wuttke)指出,这是中国在利用特朗普颠覆既有国际秩序的时机向欧盟发动“魅力攻势”。“我觉得欧盟和中国在接下去一段时间里真的有可能互相接近,欧中关系有望进一步缓和。”这位目前担任​大成全球咨询公司–奥尔布赖特石桥集团(DGA)合伙人的中国问题专家认为,这是因为中美关系极有可能因为特朗普不断加码关税而趋于紧张,“因为中国政府必须做出回击,而且可以说他们早就已经把子弹上膛了。”

中国驻欧盟商会秘书长方东葵在接受德国之声采访时也说,作为中、美、欧全球三大市场中的两个,“中国和欧盟现在可以通过加强沟通和磋商,从而为动荡的全球贸易注入稳定性和正能量。”

多年任欧盟驻中国商会主席的伍德克目前担任​大成全球咨询公司–奥尔布赖特石桥集团(DGA)合伙人。他指出,欧盟和中国在接下去一段时间里真的有可能互相接近,欧中关系有望进一步缓和。

欧中贸易摩擦依旧

然而,中国和欧盟相互接近、共同抵抗特朗普关税大棒的构想面临着许多内部的阻碍。近年来,欧中之间围绕着太阳能、电动汽车反补贴关税等贸易问题有着不小的摩擦。欧盟方面调查认定中国的电动汽车产业链大量受益于“不公正的补贴政策”,并出台了相应的惩罚性关税。北京也对不少欧盟产品加征报复性关税。尽管欧中双方一直在就此议题保持谈判,但是何时能取得成果仍然是个未知数。此外,也有不少关注欧中关系的分析人士担心,随着特朗普普遍加征关税,同是出口导向型经济体的欧盟和中国,势必会在美国以外的市场上更加激烈地竞争,因此会反而激化欧中之间的矛盾。

长年关注中国经济的科隆德国经济研究所(IW Köln)贸易专家马特斯(Jürgen Matthes)就对德国之声表示,中国商品极可能会被迫寻求其他销售市场,尤其是欧盟市场。“我们看到中国企业一方面确实更有效率、更善于创新,但另一方面也收到了巨额补贴。而且,人民币兑欧元汇率也是被低估的,这也赋予了中国商品不对称优势。”

中国驻欧盟商会则对这种担忧不以为然。秘书长方东葵说,作为体量巨大的经济体,中欧之间存在贸易摩擦和分歧是“非常正常的现象”,中欧双方现在要做的就是“作为多边贸易体系维护者防止逐级竞争”,“避免全球多边贸易体系蒙受更严重冲击”。他进一步建议目前处于封冻中的《中欧投资协议》重启谈判,从而“通过中欧合作来对冲全球市场的动荡”。

科隆德国经济研究所的中国问题专家马特斯认为,解冻“中欧投资协议”现在并非好主意

双重去风险

德国经济学家马特斯却认为,解冻“中欧投资协议”现在并非好主意。“如果北京真的能大幅收紧补贴、恢复人民币升值,那么我们或许还可以讨论《中欧投资协议》。但即便是这样,也是不一定符合我们欧洲利益的。因为该协议会激励欧洲大型企业进一步加大对中国的投资,扩大其中国工厂的产能,进一步损害欧盟对华出口、进一步威胁欧洲本土的就业岗位。”

曾在中国生活好几十年的伍德克则指出,不论是中国商品可能转而冲击欧盟市场、还是《中欧投资协议》可能造成的欧洲就业岗位流失,其根本原因都在于中国工业领域广泛的产能过剩问题,而这个问题在当前中国政经体制下很难解决。“中国的制造业生产了全球34%的商品,如果产能全开比例也许还要更高,但是中国的消费只占了全球的12%。这样的情况,肯定会造成国内的经济问题,也会危及和贸易伙伴的关系。……但是我依然相信布鲁塞尔和北京现在都在寻求改善双边关系。”

智库机构“欧盟外交关系委员会”(ECFR)的中国问题专家欧特尔(Janka Oertel)几天前在接受德广联中国播客节目Welt.Macht.China采访时则明确警告说,欧洲不应该在欧美关系转冷之时转而寻求亲近中国:“在特朗普当选之前存在的欧中摩擦,如今依然存在,不论是产能过剩、还是不公正的贸易手段等等。所以说,另一边的中国并不是什么神奇药方。”

有鉴于此,近期德国以及欧盟政界逐渐开始提及“双重去风险”概念(Duo-Derisking),也就是同时降低欧洲对美国、中国的经贸依赖度。科隆德国经济研究所(IW Köln)贸易专家马特斯就在德国之声采访中说:“欧盟的对华去风险策略将会因为特朗普的关税而变得更加艰难,这意味着欧盟必须要加强和拉美国家、中国以外的亚洲国家加强关系,推动经贸关系多样化进程。”

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© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

德语媒体:观望中的北京

null 媒体看中国
2025-03-31T13:03:45.625Z
法兰克福汇报:北京对中美关系的变化仍持观望态度。

(德国之声中文网)《法兰克福汇报》发表评论认为,与大多数人的预期不同,北京并未急于填补特朗普留下的“战略空隙”,而是停留在象征性举动和外交辞令之中。这篇题为《北京仍在观望》的评论写道:

“就在前不久,中国总理李强在北京将中国描述为‘全球化的负责任捍卫者’。他强调,全世界应当共同反对‘单边主义’。中国仍在观望华盛顿将如何制定对华立场以及如何应对普京。即使面对遭到特朗普团队蔑视以及公然施压的欧洲,中国也并未提出任何新倡议、新承诺以及做出任何妥协和让步。无论是在贸易问题上,还是在俄乌战争的问题上,至今中国几乎没有采取任何实际行动。

因为对于中国而言,美国始终是最核心的外交议题。尽管特朗普的所作所为也在中国国内引起了很多困惑,但在对美关系未能清晰定位之前,北京基本上并没有采取改弦易辙的外交举措。

这也同样适用于中国的内部治理。在中国,包括外交政策在内的各个方面,其决策机制都已越来越集中于最高领导人一人手中。针对官僚体系的清洗行动,已经使官僚阶层内人心惶惶,整个体系也陷入了瘫痪状态。

或许中国政府会认为,不需付出过高代价,就可以改善同美国之外其他西方国家的关系。毕竟为了自身安全,欧洲方面已经开始强调要同北京加强‘建设性合作’。尽管同欧洲改善关系已经有了一线希望,但中国却并未因此调整其支持俄罗斯的立场,也更没有改变中国的产业政策,毕竟,下一任美国总统上台后,华盛顿的政策可能会再次转向。”

中国总理李强:”中美合作则双赢,对抗则双输“。(资料图)

评论指出,尽管特朗普政府在国际政治舞台留下了大量空白,但中国显然并不急于去扮演填充角色,而是采取了一贯的观望立场。

“鉴于习近平会坚定地执行其既定路线,因此他完全可以以不变应万变,坐视西方阵营自乱阵脚。而且,与需要在中期选举前拿出政绩的特朗普不同,习近平并没有类似的时间压力。正因为如此,北京并不急于安排习近平与特朗普的首脑峰会,同时也可能会尽力拖延中美双方就贸易问题达成协议的时间。

中国既不会做出妥协让步,但也不会让矛盾升级。中国总理李强表示:‘历史告诉我们,中美合作则双赢,对抗则双输。’中国正在密切关注美国方面4月初即将结束的一项调查,这份调查将评估中国是否履行了此前的贸易协议。双方都很清楚,调查结果对中国将是负面的。届时,美国可能会对中国发起猛烈攻势。北京的首要目标是坚持既定战略的前提下,安然熬过特朗普的执政期。”

《商报》评论也认为,美国总统特朗普对美欧关系的调整,以及对俄罗斯独裁者普京的迎合,是非常短视的行为。但同《法兰克福汇报》评论不同,《商报》评论作者认为,特朗普对国际关系的颠覆性改变,给了北京可乘之机,而这也正是本届特朗普政府的最大败笔:

“中国人不仅是美国自我毁灭过程的敏锐观察者,同时也在极具战略性地利用这一机会。前不久的中国人大会议上,中国共产党领导人已宣布,中国将再次大幅提升科研与开发预算。

此外,美国经济战略家长期以来的期望,即中国政府会继续束缚本国私营 IT 企业的发展,也在逐渐破灭。习近平最近高调为中国私营 IT 企业‘平反’,就清楚地表明了这一点。

所有这些因素都使得特朗普政府让美国变成世界公敌的严重错误,变得更加致命。直到不久前,几乎没有人会认真相信,美国坚固的国家安全体系竟然会在如此短的时间内、遭到如此戏剧化的毁坏。”

摘编自其他媒体的内容,不代表德国之声的立场或观点。

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特朗普对等关税席卷全球 会否引发贸易战

Timothy Rooks
2025-04-03T14:23:13.320Z
特朗普对等关税的“新现实”

(德国之声中文网)4月2日,美国总统特朗普如期宣布了新关税。受影响的既包括该国最紧密的盟友,如日本,也包括对手,如中国。

10%的基准关税将于4月5日生效,谈判几乎没有时间。对不同国家的最高关税将于4月9日生效。

而这些关税将累加在美国已对中国征收的钢、铝和汽车关税之上。

美国国内反应

工业界迅速作出回响。全美制造业协会主席提门斯(Jay Timmons)表示:“美国许多制造商利润率已经很低了。新关税的高成本威胁投资、就业、供应链,以及美国作为制造业超级大国,面对其它国家的竞争力。”

消费者技术协会负责人沙皮罗(Gary Shapiro)也作出类似表态:“总统特朗普席卷全球的对等关税,将推高通胀,令就业岗位消失,并且可能带来美国经济衰退。”

对“朋友”的关税

欧委会主席冯德莱恩表示:“我们正在最终完成初步的一揽子反制措施,作为对钢铁关税的回应。我们正准备进一步的反制措施,以备谈判失败。”

意大利总理梅洛尼在脸书上则语气更为缓和。“我们将尽全力与美国达成协议,以避免终将削弱西方而有利于其它全球玩家的贸易战。”

投资者如何看

德意志银行战略分析师利德(Jim Reid)向投资者表示,美国新关税的水平属于最坏预期之列。他预计,美国增长今年可能因此损失1-1.5%。

中国来说,加征34%的关税后,中国产品面临的关税将为54%。

咨询公司Capital Economics首席经济师席令(Neil Shearing)也表示,新对等关税规模大过预期。据该机构的初步估算,新关税之下,中国GDP或下降0.5%,欧元区和日本则下降约0.2%。

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How were Trump's tariffs calculated?

Getty Images A photo of Donald Trump with a mathematical formula written in the backgroundGetty Images

US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries being imported into the US, with even higher rates for what he calls the "worst offenders".

But how exactly were these tariffs - essentially taxes on imports - worked out? BBC Verify has been looking at the calculations behind the numbers.

What were the calculations?

When Trump presented a giant cardboard chart detailing the tariffs in the White House Rose Garden it was initially assumed that the charges were based on a combination of existing tariffs and other trade barriers (like regulations).

But later, the White House published what might look like a complicated mathematical formula.

White House A screen grab of the formula used by the White House used to calculate tariffsWhite House
The formula shared by the White House

But the actual exercise boiled down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

A trade deficit occurs when a country buys (imports) more physical products from other countries than it sells (exports) to them.

For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them - there is a goods deficit of $295bn. The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn.

Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.

Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House's formula resulted in a 20% tariff.

A BBC graphic showing how the White House methodology works

Are the Trump tariffs 'reciprocal'?

Many commentators have pointed out that these tariffs are not reciprocal.

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers (things like regulations that drive up costs).

But the White House's official methodology document makes clear that they have not calculated this for all the countries on which they have imposed tariffs.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US's goods trade deficit with each country.

Trump has broken away from the formula in imposing tariffs on countries that buy more goods from the US than they sell to it.

For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.

'Lots of broader impacts'

Trump believes the US is getting a bad deal in global trade. In his view, other countries flood US markets with cheap goods - which hurts US companies and costs jobs. At the same time, these countries are putting up barriers that make US products less competitive abroad.

So by using tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, Trump hopes to revive US manufacturing and protect jobs.

Reuters A man wearing a jacket saying "Auto Workers For Trump" sits in the Rose Garden during Trump's address on Wednesday evening. He is also wearing a baseball cap, and is flanked by other men in work gear. Reuters
The US car industry is one of the manufacturing sectors Trump is keen to revive

But will this new tariff regime achieve the desired outcome?

BBC Verify has spoken to a number of economists. The overwhelming view is that while the tariffs might reduce the goods deficit between the US and individual countries, they will not reduce the overall deficit between the US and rest of the world.

"Yes, it will reduce bilateral trade deficits between the US and these countries. But there will obviously be lots of broader impacts that are not captured in the calculation", says Professor Jonathan Portes of King's College, London.

That's because the US' existing overall deficit is not driven solely by trade barriers, but by how the US economy works.

For one, Americans spend and invest more than they earn and that gap means the US buys more from the world than it sells. So as long as that continues, the US may continue to keep running a deficit despite increasing tariffs with it global trading partners.

Some trade deficits can also exist for a number of legitimate reasons - not just down to tariffs. For example, buying food that is easier or cheaper to produce in other countries' climates.

Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics said: "The formula is reverse engineered to rationalise charging tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit. There is no economic rationale for doing this and it will cost the global economy dearly."

BBC Verify logo

UK explores retaliatory action against US tariffs

House of Commons Jonathan Reynolds in the House of CommonsHouse of Commons

The UK government is launching a consultation with businesses on how taking retaliatory tariff measures against the US would impact them.

It comes after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs of 10% on all UK imports.

The government has previously said it would not be rushed into a knee-jerk response to Trump's imposition of tariffs on its trading partners around the world while insisting all options were on the table.

But in a toughening of this stance, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told MPs he would "seek the views of UK stakeholders over four weeks until 1 May 2025 on products that could be potentially included in any UK tariff response".

He said talks were ongoing with the US government to secure an economic deal aimed at avoiding or reducing tariffs but warned that the UK "reserves the right to take any action we deem necessary if a deal is not secured".

In the event of reaching a deal with the US, the consultation with businesses would be paused, he added.

Speaking in the House of Commons, he said the fact the US had put lower tariffs on the UK compared to other countries "vindicated the pragmatic approach the government has taken". However, he said he was "disappointed" by the increase.

Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith questioned Reynolds' claim that the government's approach had been "vindicated".

"The government got no special favours," he said noting that the UK was facing the same tariffs as more than 125 other countries and territories including the Congo and the Christmas Islands.

He said the EU was being hit by 20% tariffs and the UK's lower rate of 10% was actually a vindication of those who "were pilloried and abused" for backing Brexit.

"They [Labour] should regret the 48 times they voted to stay in Europe and thank us for getting Brexit done."

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Trump was telling the UK he would only lower tariffs "if you lower your standards".

"If the government gives in to Trump's threats it will only encourage him to use the same bullying tactics again and again."

She reiterated her party's call for an "economic coalition of the willing" against the tariffs.

In addition to the 10% tariffs, a 25% tariff has been put on UK car exports, as well as steel and aluminium products.

The UK exported almost £60bn worth of goods to the US last year, mainly machinery, cars and pharmaceuticals.

The government's official forecaster estimates a worst-case scenario trade war could reduce UK economic growth by 1% and wipe out the £9.9bn of economic headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave herself at last week's Spring Statement.

It could mean that in order to meet her own fiscal rules, she would have to raise taxes or make cuts to government spending.

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