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特朗普:美中逾万亿赤字太荒谬 国会拟撤中国最惠国地位

特朗普在世界经济论坛就美中贸易情况表态,形容美中贸易赤字逾万亿太荒谬,要把美中关係变得公平,此话一出引发热议。同时美国会朝野两党也出手,提出要撤销中国目前享有的正常贸易关係地位。特朗普上任不到一周,美政府和国会针对中国的行动和表态,将对中国经济会带来怎样冲击备受关注。

美国总统特朗普周四(1月23日)通过视频出席在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛。他在答问环节回应提到早前与中国国家主席习近平的通话,形容目前美中的贸易关係是不公平的状态,要让把美中的贸易变得更公平。

特朗普说:“他(习近平)给我打了电话。我认为我们会有非常好的关系。我们都只想要公平,一个公平的竞争环境。我们不想占便宜。我们与中国的贸易赤字一直很大,拜登容许局势失控,赤字已经达到了1.1万亿美元,这太荒谬了。这是一种不公平的关系,我们必须变得公平。我们不需要做出根本性的改变,只需要让关係变得公平。现在这段关系并不公平,赤字是非常庞大。”

与此同时,美国国会众议院中共问题特设委员会主席穆勒纳尔(John Moolenaar)与民主党籍众议员苏奥齐(Tom Suozzi)正式提出《恢復贸易公平法案》,取消中国的永久正常贸易关系(PNTR)地位。

永久性正常贸易关系待遇(Permanent Normal Trade Relations, PNTR),即原来的最惠国待遇,但不需年审。

美国会提案取消中国最惠国待遇 与加关税起相辅相成作用

美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田表示,取消正常贸易关係相对于加徵关税,对中国而言杀伤力比较弱,但美国会与特朗普的取态和行动一致,有利特朗普用关税政策向中国施压。

谢田说:“这两个做法实际上是有点相辅相成的。一方面如果给于中国优惠最惠国待遇,那就要降低关税,取消的话就是不给中共优惠的关税,而川普(特朗普)在2月1号开始的关税行动才是真正有价值的。最惠国待遇取消的话,就等于把中共身上的一个保护罩和盾牌给去掉,而这个川普这个关税行动才是真正的利剑向中共刺。”

对于中国美国商会(AmCham)的新调查显示,在特朗普上任前已有过半受访在华美企担心,美中关係未来会恶化,比例是近5年最高。谢田表示,调查结果反映在中国的美国企业已预计,特普朗和他的内阁在新任期会在贸易方面对中国展示更强硬的态度。

谢田说:“川普(特朗普)的第一任期的对华经济政策,在实际上是受到纳瓦罗的观点所影响。而现在他(纳瓦罗)的位置比第一任期时更高一点,更接近川普。毕竟你看到从外交、经济、贸易全都是对中共和对华的鹰派人物,他们更懂得、更看清了中共,意识到中共的邪恶。所以这一切的实施一定会非常迅速,也非常果决。中美关係会紧张的加剧,中国经济现在根本没有希望走出衰退,美商和外商撤离中国也会加剧。”

分析:美对中国採取边走边看、边打边谈策略

台湾政治大学国际关係研究中心研究员宋国诚出席本台节目《亚洲很想聊》分析特朗普的对中策略。他认为,特朗普在关税问题上,不会一步到位向中国大施压,而是逐步迫使中国让步。

宋国诚说:“川普(特朗普)的这个关税,正确来说应该是累进式的关税,不是一次就打足了。为什么叫做累进?就是边走边看、边打边谈。每一步都是作为一种筹码,然后看看你的制裁的真相有什么样的回应。如果说听话了,那么我们就打在止于这样的一个关税水平之上。如果不听话的话,再慢慢地增加。因为打关税也可以赚钱啊,可以弥补美国的财政不足。所以它(加关税)既是一种谈判的筹码,同时也是一个政策的目标。”

特朗普和国会态度一致 中国进出口必受冲击

经济学者司令表示,特朗普上任不到一周,已多次提到关税的问题,再加上国会的行动,能预期美国已下决心改变美中贸易的不平衡,必定会对中国进出口等造成冲击。

司令说:“对美的贸易顺差减少之后,北美市场如果全面萎缩的话,我现在还没有看到有新兴的和有这么大的经济体量,能够替代中国进出口贸易总额10%以上的这样一个市场,还是找不到。所以说中国的外贸行业会受到严重的打击,恐怕这个寒冬才刚刚开始。对中国的第三产业会产生影响,恐怕会进一步的影响到中国的失业率。”

司令表示,中国经济早在美国出招之前,已有很大的问题,但相信,中国会把经济衰退的责任甩锅给美国,以掩饰中共党管一切体制影响经济的发展,这才是造成现在经济难以反弹的责任。

责编:陈美华 许书婷

© AP

特朗普总统说美中贸易赤字逾万亿太荒谬。

习近平赴辽宁调研 镜头外的东北陷经济困境

中共总书记习近平在农历新年前赴东北辽宁考察,官媒塑造出张灯结彩、深受爱戴的景象。不过,分析指出,东北三省老工业城人口出走、经济放缓,已陷入贫穷的困境。

23日,习近平赴辽宁省沈阳市,考察沈阳大东副食品商场和大东区长安街道长安小区,从央视的画面中,呈现出一副张灯结彩年节气氛,官媒称,习近平要了解当地节日期间市场供应、群众生活保障等。

前一日,习近平则是到辽宁省葫芦岛市绥中县明水满族乡祝家沟村看望慰问受灾群众,察看去年洪涝灾害后当地恢复重建情况。葫芦岛在去年八月遭遇破纪录的豪雨袭击,数十人遇难失联,灾损超过人民币百亿元。

水患迟来的慰问

时事评论人士陈破空接受本台访问时表示,习近平以慰问去年的洪灾受灾民众为名,访问辽宁葫芦岛。洪灾已经过去半年多,灾后重建工作几乎结束。从画面看来,现场布置和群众互动看来更像是精心策划的“群众戏剧”。

“东北现在是中国最贫困的区域,东北很多抱怨认为习近平上台以来,并未在财政挹注东北,忽视东北老工业城,东北全面地垮塌、工业产值持续下降、人口严重流失到外省去,导致东北人口急剧减少,生育率也降至全国最低,每年下降幅度高达30%。地方财政长期亏损,”他补充说,由于中国中央财政拨款枯竭,东北无法指望实质性的援助,而这次习近平春节前的作秀,到东北去只是起到安慰的作用,试图缓解地方的不满情绪而已,对改善东北经济无法起到实质作用。

东北重工业转型路遥遥

除了葫芦岛、沈阳外,23日上午,习近平还到了辽宁本溪市考察本钢板材冷轧总厂第三冷轧厂,察看企业的生产线,了解企业加快转型升级等情况。

《纽约时报》2023年曾报道东北复兴的难题,指出辽宁在内所在的东北三省是中国重工业的摇篮。现在则面对房地产危机,国民经济放缓。报道指这个地区负债累累。由于房地产泡沫破裂,公共收入正在大幅下降。养老金是由该地区三个省级政府辽宁、吉林和黑龙江负责,其成本正在飙升。将近两年的时间,东北的困境似乎还没找到解方。

“不光是东北,东北只是表现得早一点 ,一开始大家都在笑东北,事实上后来到处都变成了东北,”中国独立金融学者贺江兵对本台表示,东北原来是中国最发达的地方,中国经济都在东北,东北一直都是中国的样板。包括90年代的下岗潮,最早也是在那。一开始大家都在笑东北,后来才发现东北只是比较早经历而已。

贺江兵分析,房地产的用钢量占钢铁产能约40%左右,然而,中国近几年房地产委靡不振,钢铁的需求降低。加上汽车产能过剩,中国试图以汽车行业弥补房地产下行的冲击,但是很难做到。“因为房地产带动的行业更多,全世界钢产量第一是中国,连美国全国都消化不了。东北转型的时机已经错过,现在经济困难时要转型,说来容易,执行非常困难。”

中国多地陷入“鹤岗化”窘境

东北的兴衰,从鹤岗见微知著。综合媒体报道,产煤的鹤岗市政府2019年、2020年连续2年无力偿付的到期政府债务本金及利息,成为中国1949年建国以来,第一个债务违约的地级市(四线城市),鹤岗濒临破产,需要“财政重整”。

鹤岗只是冰山一角,去年9月,媒体报道,中国25个省、95座城市的房价朝“鹤岗化”发展,就连经济发达的京津冀、珠三角、成渝等地也被“鹤岗化”城市包围,房价跌至10几万甚至数万人民币。

贺江兵解读所谓的“鹤岗”化,指出,全境内的许多的县市房价跌成“白菜价”,差不多都“鹤岗化”。过去大家嘲笑鹤岗房子滞销、人员大幅外流,然而,这已经成为全国化现象。从2022年起,中国的国家统计局数据已显示,人口负增长、经济下挫、产业链外移,鹤岗只是最早房地产下跌的地方,现在都一起滑落。“谁也没资格笑鹤岗,房价跌、地卖不出去,地方的财政枯竭,它不是一个鹤岗问题,而是全境的问题。”

陈破空也同样认为目前中国全国多地面临类似鹤岗的财政危机。地方政府过去高度依赖卖地与房地产收入,而如今房地产市场萎缩,土地交易接近枯竭。习近平执政期间对房地产进行的严厉打击,包括限制房价和抑制炒房,导致市场活力大幅下滑。房地产曾经是中国官商阶层、中产阶级唯一存钱保命的重要途径,但政策打压使房地产深受重创。像鹤岗这样的地方既无法从外部获得救援,也无力自救,政府实质破产,只是换个“财政重整”新名词,实际上并未对财政困境起到有效的改善作用。

责编:许书婷 陈美华

© 路透社资料照片

中共总书记习近平在农历新年前赴东北调研,官媒塑造和乐景象。不过分析指出,东北三省老工业城人口出走、经济放缓,已陷入贫穷的困境。

邹幸彤狱中过40岁生日 凭歌寄意:“投降容易老,认命没有种”

因涉《国安法》被控煽动他人颠覆国家政权罪的前支联会副主席邹幸彤,周五(1月24日)在狱中度过40岁生日,也是她在被关押中度过的第4个生日。

本台取得她在狱中发出的生日感言,她表示已收到大家送上的祝福,感谢大家的同时,也向各界送上广东歌《至少做一件离谱的事》作感谢,她引用其中一句歌词:“投降容易老,认命没有种”,勉励她想念或想念她的好友、认识和不认识的战友们。

邹幸彤的未婚夫、维权人士野渡也在邹幸彤生日当天发表《遇见》的一篇文章。他回覆本台查询表示,想用《遇见》表达他与邹幸彤相遇的时代,就像文章所引用的作家身处的专制和黑暗时代。

野渡说,我们遇见不可描述的时代。不管身处什么样的时代,每一个人是以人的姿态站立,还是只是一头类人畜生跪地活着,都有被历史写下判词的时候。他说,无论如何,不要放弃希望,希望邹幸彤能在狱中也能看到他的文章。

责编:陈美华

© 法新社资料照片

2021年6月5日,香港支联会前副主席邹幸彤在交保释放后对媒体发表讲话。

IDF said bombed apartments were Hezbollah base - but most of dead were civilians

BBC Ashraf and Julia both smiling for the camera, with a background of greenery. Ashraf has dark hair and a beard and is wearing a dark shirt, and Julia has lighter brown hair - long and wavy - and has brightly painted lips.
BBC
Ashraf (l) persuaded his sister Julia to join him in the family apartment, which he believed was safe from IDF strikes

Julia Ramadan was terrified - the war between Israel and Hezbollah was escalating and she'd had a nightmare that her family home was being bombed. When she sent her brother a panicked voice note from her apartment in Beirut, he encouraged her to join him in Ain El Delb, a sleepy village in southern Lebanon.

"It's safe here," he reassured her. "Come stay with us until things calm down."

Earlier that month, Israel intensified air campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon, in response to escalating rocket attacks by the Iran-backed armed group which had killed civilians, and displaced tens of thousands more from homes in northern Israel.

Ashraf was confident their family's apartment block would be a haven, so Julia joined him. But the next day, on 29 September, it was subject to this conflict's deadliest single Israeli attack. Struck by Israeli missiles, the entire six-storey building collapsed, killing 73 people.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says the building was targeted because it was a Hezbollah "terrorist command centre" and it "eliminated" a Hezbollah commander. It added that "the overwhelming majority" of those killed in the strike were "confirmed to be terror operatives".

But a BBC Eye investigation verified the identity of 68 of the 73 people killed in the attack and uncovered evidence suggesting just six were linked to Hezbollah's military wing. None of those we identified appeared to hold a senior rank. The BBC's World Service also found that the other 62 were civilians - 23 of them children.

Among the dead were babies only a few months old, like Nouh Kobeissi in apartment -2B. In apartment -1C, school teacher Abeer Hallak was killed alongside her husband and three sons. Three floors above, Amal Hakawati died along with three generations of her family - her husband, children and two granddaughters.

A photographic graphic titled: 'Lebanon attack: Fatalities identified by BBC'
It shows three banks of photos: Women, men (including the six we found to be have Hezbollah affiliation) and children. There is a footnote which adds: We identified a further six children (five women, one man) for whom we could not find photos.

Ashraf and Julia had always been close, sharing everything with each other. "She was like a black box, holding all my secrets," he says.

On the afternoon of 29 September, the siblings had just returned home from handing out food to families who had fled the fighting. Hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon had been displaced by the war.

Ashraf was in the shower, and Julia was sitting in the living room with their father, helping him upload a video to social media. Their mother, Janan, was in the kitchen, clearing up.

Then, without warning, they heard a deafening bang. The entire building shook, and a massive cloud of dust and smoke poured into their apartment.

"I shouted, 'Julia! Julia!,'" says Ashraf.

"She replied, 'I'm here.'

"I looked at my dad, who was struggling to get up from the sofa because of an existing injury to his leg, and saw my mother running toward the front door."

Julia's nightmare was playing out in real life.

"Julia was hyperventilating, crying so hard on the sofa. I was trying to calm her down and told her we needed to get out. Then, there was another attack."

Video footage of the strike, shared online and verified by the BBC, reveals four Israeli missiles flying through the air towards the building. Seconds later, the block collapses.

Watch the moment missiles struck the building, causing it to collapse

Ashraf, along with many others, was trapped under the rubble. He began calling out, but the only voice he could hear was that of his father, who told him he could still hear Julia and that she was alive. Neither of them could hear Ashraf's mother.

Ashraf sent a voice note to friends in the neighbourhood to alert them. The next few hours were agonising. He could hear rescuers sifting through the debris - and residents wailing as they discovered loved ones dead. "I just kept thinking, please, God, not Julia. I can't live this life without Julia."

Ashraf was finally pulled from the rubble hours later, with only minor injuries.

He discovered his mother had been rescued but died in hospital. Julia had suffocated under the rubble. His father later told him Julia's last words were calls for her brother.

Map showing the location of the targeted apartment building - it shows a zoomed in location of where it was within Ain El Delb, and a zoomed out location of Ain El Delb - close to Sidon, and well south of Beirut.

In November, a ceasefire deal was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah with the aim of ending the conflict. The deal gives a 60-day deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces and weapons north of the Litani River. As this 26 January deadline approaches, we sought to find out more about the deadliest single Israeli attack on Lebanon in years.

In the apartment below Julia and Ashraf's, Hawraa and Ali Fares had been hosting family members displaced by the war. Among them was Hawraa's sister Batoul, who, like Julia, had arrived the previous day - with her husband and two young children. They had fled intense bombardment near the Lebanon-Israel border, in areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

"We hesitated about where to go," says Batoul. "And then I told my husband, 'Let's go to Ain El Delb. My sister said their building was safe and that they couldn't hear any bombing nearby.'"

Batoul's husband Mohammed Fares was killed in the Ain El Delb attack. A pillar fell on Batoul and her children. She says no-one responded to her calls for help. She finally managed to lift it alone, but her four-year-old daughter Hawraa had been fatally crushed. Miraculously, her baby Malak survived.

Fares family Hawraa, and her cousins Hassan and Hussein, photographed playing together. Hawraa is wearing a pink dress with puff sleeves and a square neck line. Her cousins are both in yellow cartoon dinosaur t-shirts.Fares family
Four-year-old Hawraa with her cousins - all three were killed in the attack

Three floors below Batoul lived Denise and Moheyaldeen Al-Baba. That Sunday, Denise had invited her brother Hisham over for lunch.

The impact of the strike was brutal, says Hisham.

"The second missile slammed me to the floor… the entire wall fell on top of me."

He spent seven hours under the rubble.

"I heard a voice far away. People talking. Screams and… 'Cover her. Remove her. Lift the stone. He's still alive. It's a child. Lift this child.' I mean… Oh my God. I thought to myself, I'm the last one deep underground. No-one will know about me. I will die here."

When Hisham was finally rescued, he found his niece's fiance waiting to hear if she was alive. He lied to him and told him she was fine. They found her body three days later.

Hisham lost four members of his family - his sister, brother-in-law and their two children. He told us he had lost his faith and no longer believes in God.

To find out more about who died, we have analysed Lebanese Health Ministry data, videos, social media posts, as well as speaking to survivors of the attack.

We particularly wanted to interrogate the IDF's response to media - immediately following the attack - that the apartment block had been a Hezbollah command centre. We asked the IDF multiple times what constituted a command centre, but it did not give clarification.

So we began sifting through social media tributes, gravesites, public health records and videos of funerals to determine whether those killed in the attack had any military affiliation with Hezbollah.

We could only find evidence that six of the 68 dead we identified were connected to Hezbollah's military wing.

Hezbollah memorial photos for the six men use the label "Mujahid", meaning "fighter". Senior figures, by contrast, are referred to as "Qaid", meaning "commander" - and we found no such labels used by the group to describe those killed.

We asked the IDF whether the six Hezbollah fighters we identified were the intended targets of the strike. It did not respond to this question.

Graphic showing the Ain El Delb apartment building, highlighting three apartments where our contributors were living or staying: The Ramadan family in Apartment 4A, the Fares family in Apartment 3A and the Al-Baba family in Apartment -1A

One of the Hezbollah fighters we identified was Batoul's husband, Mohammed Fares. Batoul told us that her husband, like many other men in southern Lebanon, was a reservist for the group, though she added that he had never been paid by Hezbollah, held a formal rank, or participated in combat.

Israel sees Hezbollah as one of its main threats and the group is designated a terrorist organisation by Israel, many Western governments and Gulf Arab states.

But alongside its large, well-armed military wing, Hezbollah is also an influential political party, holding seats in Lebanese parliament. In many parts of the country it is woven into the social fabric, providing a network of social services.

In response to our investigation, the IDF stated: "The IDF's strikes on military targets are subject to relevant provisions of international law, including taking feasible precautions, and are carried out after an assessment that the expected collateral damage and civilian casualties are not excessive in relation to the military advantage expected from the strike."

It had earlier also told the BBC it had executed "evacuation procedures" for the strike on Ain El Delb, but everyone we spoke to said they had received no warning.

UN experts have raised concerns about the proportionality and necessity of Israeli air strikes on residential buildings in densely populated areas in Lebanon.

This pattern of targeting entire buildings - resulting in significant civilian casualties - has been a recurring feature of Israel's latest conflict with Hezbollah, which began when the group escalated rocket attacks in response to Israel's war in Gaza.

Between October 2023 and November 2024, Lebanese authorities say more than 3,960 people were killed in Lebanon by Israeli forces, many of them civilians. Over the same time period, Israeli authorities say at least 47 civilians were killed by Hezbollah rockets fired from southern Lebanon. At least 80 Israeli soldiers were also killed fighting in southern Lebanon or as a result of rocket attacks on northern Israel.

The missile strike in Ain El Delb is the deadliest Israeli attack on a building in Lebanon for at least 18 years.

Scarlett Barter / BBC Rubble of the apartment block in the foreground, and in the background a few apartment blocks of various styles, flanking a mosque. A yellow digger picks through the detritus.Scarlett Barter / BBC
Families continued to visit the site of devastation weeks later to rake through the rubble

The village remains haunted by its impact. When we visited, more than a month after the strike, a father continued to visit the site every day, hoping for news of his 11-year-old son, whose body had yet to be found.

Ashraf Ramadan, too, returns to sift through the rubble, searching for what remains of the memories his family built over the two decades they lived there.

He shows me the door of his wardrobe, still adorned with pictures of footballers and pop stars he once admired. Then, he pulls a teddy bear from the debris and tells me it was always on his bed.

"Nothing I find here will make up for the people we lost," he says.

Additional reporting by Scarlett Barter and Jake Tacchi

Injured Djokovic booed off after quitting Melbourne semi-final

Injured Djokovic booed off after quitting Melbourne semi-final

Novak Djokovic reacts to missing a pointImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Novak Djokovic was bidding for a standalone all-time record 25th Grand Slam title

  • Published

Novak Djokovic was booed off court by some Australian Open fans after retiring injured from his semi-final against Alexander Zverev.

Djokovic, who was bidding for a record-extending 11th title, quit after losing the first set 7-6 (7-5).

The 37-year-old Serb had his upper left leg heavily taped after injuring it in Tuesday's quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz.

"I did everything I possibly could do to manage the muscle tear that I had," said Djokovic, who was also aiming for an all-time standalone record of 25 major titles.

"Towards the end of that first set I just started feeling more and more pain.

"It was too much to handle for me at the moment."

After he slapped a volley into the net on set point, seventh seed Djokovic immediately approached Zverev and shook his hand after 80 minutes of play.

He waved to the crowd and gave them a double thumbs up, despite audible boos from some sections inside Rod Laver Arena.

"I knew even if I won the first set, that it's going to be a huge uphill battle for me to stay physically fit enough to stay with him in the rallies for two, three, four hours," added Djokovic.

"I don't think I had that today in the tank."

German second seed Zverev is still bidding for his first Grand Slam title after twice losing in major finals.

He will face either Italian top seed Jannik Sinner or American 21st seed Ben Shelton in Sunday's final.

'Don't boo a player when they are injured'

From the moment Djokovic lunged for a drop-shot towards the end of the first set against Alcaraz and immediately grimaced to his box, there have been questions over his fitness.

Djokovic, as he has on countless occasions in his stellar career, somehow managed to defy the injury to earn a remarkable win against the 21-year-old.

But doubts remained how equipped he would be to play Zverev.

Djokovic had not practised at Melbourne Park since Tuesday night's victory, cancelling a planned hit on Thursday before spending an hour warming up on court shortly before the semi-final.

Djokovic did not practise between matches during his 2023 title run and later revealed he had a 3cm tear in his hamstring.

He also won the 2021 title despite tearing an abdominal muscle in the third round.

"The very first thing I want to say is, please guys, don't boo when a player is injured," said Zverev, addressing the crowd in his on-court interview.

"I know everyone paid for tickets and wants to see a five-set match but you have to understand Novak Djokovic is someone who has given absolutely everything to tennis.

"He has won this title with an abdominal tear, he has won this title with a hamstring tear.

"If he cannot continue this match, it means he really cannot continue."

The signs that showed Djokovic's struggles

Djokovic looked way below his best from the start of the semi-final.

The former world number one was fortunate not to be punished more by Zverev as he struggled badly with his first serve.

Zverev, playing passively behind the baseline, produced poor errors on the four break points he created in the third game of the match.

Two forehands and a backhand were meekly dumped into the net before he framed a forehand into the front rows of the stand on the fourth.

After three slogs of games spanning 23 minutes, Djokovic had three break points himself at 2-1 but could not take his chances.

Djokovic's service games improved but he had to save another break point at 4-4, and the laboured walks to the chair and anguished facial expressions became more pronounced.

Nevertheless, ending the match early came as a shock to most of the 15,000 crowd on Rod Laver Arena - and Zverev himself.

Asked if he had any indication Djokovic was struggling, Zverev laughed: "No, I actually thought it was a high-level set.

"Of course there were some difficulties and the longer you continue maybe the worse it gets.

"Maybe in the tie-break he was not moving as well, but I thought we had extremely long, physical rallies."

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IDF said bombed apartments were Hezbollah base - but most of dead were civilians

BBC Ashraf and Julia both smiling for the camera, with a background of greenery. Ashraf has dark hair and a beard and is wearing a dark shirt, and Julia has lighter brown hair - long and wavy - and has brightly painted lips.
BBC
Ashraf (l) persuaded his sister Julia to join him in the family apartment, which he believed was safe from IDF strikes

Julia Ramadan was terrified - the war between Israel and Hezbollah was escalating and she'd had a nightmare that her family home was being bombed. When she sent her brother a panicked voice note from her apartment in Beirut, he encouraged her to join him in Ain El Delb, a sleepy village in southern Lebanon.

"It's safe here," he reassured her. "Come stay with us until things calm down."

Earlier that month, Israel intensified air campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon, in response to escalating rocket attacks by the Iran-backed armed group which had killed civilians, and displaced tens of thousands more from homes in northern Israel.

Ashraf was confident their family's apartment block would be a haven, so Julia joined him. But the next day, on 29 September, it was subject to this conflict's deadliest single Israeli attack. Struck by Israeli missiles, the entire six-storey building collapsed, killing 73 people.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says the building was targeted because it was a Hezbollah "terrorist command centre" and it "eliminated" a Hezbollah commander. It added that "the overwhelming majority" of those killed in the strike were "confirmed to be terror operatives".

But a BBC Eye investigation verified the identity of 68 of the 73 people killed in the attack and uncovered evidence suggesting just six were linked to Hezbollah's military wing. None of those we identified appeared to hold a senior rank. The BBC's World Service also found that the other 62 were civilians - 23 of them children.

Among the dead were babies only a few months old, like Nouh Kobeissi in apartment -2B. In apartment -1C, school teacher Abeer Hallak was killed alongside her husband and three sons. Three floors above, Amal Hakawati died along with three generations of her family - her husband, children and two granddaughters.

A photographic graphic titled: 'Lebanon attack: Fatalities identified by BBC'
It shows three banks of photos: Women, men (including the six we found to be have Hezbollah affiliation) and children. There is a footnote which adds: We identified a further six children (five women, one man) for whom we could not find photos.

Ashraf and Julia had always been close, sharing everything with each other. "She was like a black box, holding all my secrets," he says.

On the afternoon of 29 September, the siblings had just returned home from handing out food to families who had fled the fighting. Hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon had been displaced by the war.

Ashraf was in the shower, and Julia was sitting in the living room with their father, helping him upload a video to social media. Their mother, Janan, was in the kitchen, clearing up.

Then, without warning, they heard a deafening bang. The entire building shook, and a massive cloud of dust and smoke poured into their apartment.

"I shouted, 'Julia! Julia!,'" says Ashraf.

"She replied, 'I'm here.'

"I looked at my dad, who was struggling to get up from the sofa because of an existing injury to his leg, and saw my mother running toward the front door."

Julia's nightmare was playing out in real life.

"Julia was hyperventilating, crying so hard on the sofa. I was trying to calm her down and told her we needed to get out. Then, there was another attack."

Video footage of the strike, shared online and verified by the BBC, reveals four Israeli missiles flying through the air towards the building. Seconds later, the block collapses.

Watch the moment missiles struck the building, causing it to collapse

Ashraf, along with many others, was trapped under the rubble. He began calling out, but the only voice he could hear was that of his father, who told him he could still hear Julia and that she was alive. Neither of them could hear Ashraf's mother.

Ashraf sent a voice note to friends in the neighbourhood to alert them. The next few hours were agonising. He could hear rescuers sifting through the debris - and residents wailing as they discovered loved ones dead. "I just kept thinking, please, God, not Julia. I can't live this life without Julia."

Ashraf was finally pulled from the rubble hours later, with only minor injuries.

He discovered his mother had been rescued but died in hospital. Julia had suffocated under the rubble. His father later told him Julia's last words were calls for her brother.

Map showing the location of the targeted apartment building - it shows a zoomed in location of where it was within Ain El Delb, and a zoomed out location of Ain El Delb - close to Sidon, and well south of Beirut.

In November, a ceasefire deal was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah with the aim of ending the conflict. The deal gives a 60-day deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces and weapons north of the Litani River. As this 26 January deadline approaches, we sought to find out more about the deadliest single Israeli attack on Lebanon in years.

In the apartment below Julia and Ashraf's, Hawraa and Ali Fares had been hosting family members displaced by the war. Among them was Hawraa's sister Batoul, who, like Julia, had arrived the previous day - with her husband and two young children. They had fled intense bombardment near the Lebanon-Israel border, in areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

"We hesitated about where to go," says Batoul. "And then I told my husband, 'Let's go to Ain El Delb. My sister said their building was safe and that they couldn't hear any bombing nearby.'"

Batoul's husband Mohammed Fares was killed in the Ain El Delb attack. A pillar fell on Batoul and her children. She says no-one responded to her calls for help. She finally managed to lift it alone, but her four-year-old daughter Hawraa had been fatally crushed. Miraculously, her baby Malak survived.

Fares family Hawraa, and her cousins Hassan and Hussein, photographed playing together. Hawraa is wearing a pink dress with puff sleeves and a square neck line. Her cousins are both in yellow cartoon dinosaur t-shirts.Fares family
Four-year-old Hawraa with her cousins - all three were killed in the attack

Three floors below Batoul lived Denise and Moheyaldeen Al-Baba. That Sunday, Denise had invited her brother Hisham over for lunch.

The impact of the strike was brutal, says Hisham.

"The second missile slammed me to the floor… the entire wall fell on top of me."

He spent seven hours under the rubble.

"I heard a voice far away. People talking. Screams and… 'Cover her. Remove her. Lift the stone. He's still alive. It's a child. Lift this child.' I mean… Oh my God. I thought to myself, I'm the last one deep underground. No-one will know about me. I will die here."

When Hisham was finally rescued, he found his niece's fiance waiting to hear if she was alive. He lied to him and told him she was fine. They found her body three days later.

Hisham lost four members of his family - his sister, brother-in-law and their two children. He told us he had lost his faith and no longer believes in God.

To find out more about who died, we have analysed Lebanese Health Ministry data, videos, social media posts, as well as speaking to survivors of the attack.

We particularly wanted to interrogate the IDF's response to media - immediately following the attack - that the apartment block had been a Hezbollah command centre. We asked the IDF multiple times what constituted a command centre, but it did not give clarification.

So we began sifting through social media tributes, gravesites, public health records and videos of funerals to determine whether those killed in the attack had any military affiliation with Hezbollah.

We could only find evidence that six of the 68 dead we identified were connected to Hezbollah's military wing.

Hezbollah memorial photos for the six men use the label "Mujahid", meaning "fighter". Senior figures, by contrast, are referred to as "Qaid", meaning "commander" - and we found no such labels used by the group to describe those killed.

We asked the IDF whether the six Hezbollah fighters we identified were the intended targets of the strike. It did not respond to this question.

Graphic showing the Ain El Delb apartment building, highlighting three apartments where our contributors were living or staying: The Ramadan family in Apartment 4A, the Fares family in Apartment 3A and the Al-Baba family in Apartment -1A

One of the Hezbollah fighters we identified was Batoul's husband, Mohammed Fares. Batoul told us that her husband, like many other men in southern Lebanon, was a reservist for the group, though she added that he had never been paid by Hezbollah, held a formal rank, or participated in combat.

Israel sees Hezbollah as one of its main threats and the group is designated a terrorist organisation by Israel, many Western governments and Gulf Arab states.

But alongside its large, well-armed military wing, Hezbollah is also an influential political party, holding seats in Lebanese parliament. In many parts of the country it is woven into the social fabric, providing a network of social services.

In response to our investigation, the IDF stated: "The IDF's strikes on military targets are subject to relevant provisions of international law, including taking feasible precautions, and are carried out after an assessment that the expected collateral damage and civilian casualties are not excessive in relation to the military advantage expected from the strike."

It had earlier also told the BBC it had executed "evacuation procedures" for the strike on Ain El Delb, but everyone we spoke to said they had received no warning.

UN experts have raised concerns about the proportionality and necessity of Israeli air strikes on residential buildings in densely populated areas in Lebanon.

This pattern of targeting entire buildings - resulting in significant civilian casualties - has been a recurring feature of Israel's latest conflict with Hezbollah, which began when the group escalated rocket attacks in response to Israel's war in Gaza.

Between October 2023 and November 2024, Lebanese authorities say more than 3,960 people were killed in Lebanon by Israeli forces, many of them civilians. Over the same time period, Israeli authorities say at least 47 civilians were killed by Hezbollah rockets fired from southern Lebanon. At least 80 Israeli soldiers were also killed fighting in southern Lebanon or as a result of rocket attacks on northern Israel.

The missile strike in Ain El Delb is the deadliest Israeli attack on a building in Lebanon for at least 18 years.

Scarlett Barter / BBC Rubble of the apartment block in the foreground, and in the background a few apartment blocks of various styles, flanking a mosque. A yellow digger picks through the detritus.Scarlett Barter / BBC
Families continued to visit the site of devastation weeks later to rake through the rubble

The village remains haunted by its impact. When we visited, more than a month after the strike, a father continued to visit the site every day, hoping for news of his 11-year-old son, whose body had yet to be found.

Ashraf Ramadan, too, returns to sift through the rubble, searching for what remains of the memories his family built over the two decades they lived there.

He shows me the door of his wardrobe, still adorned with pictures of footballers and pop stars he once admired. Then, he pulls a teddy bear from the debris and tells me it was always on his bed.

"Nothing I find here will make up for the people we lost," he says.

Additional reporting by Scarlett Barter and Jake Tacchi

韩江谈《不做告别》:为何书写济州岛大屠杀

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韩江谈《不做告别》:为何书写济州岛大屠杀

VICTORIA KIM
韩江,摄于2016年。
韩江,摄于2016年。 Jean Chung for The New York Times
在韩江最新一本小说中,一个人物在木工事故中被锯掉了两根手指的指尖。外科医生重新将指尖接了回去,但治疗过程既可怕又痛苦。每隔三分钟,护理人员就会小心翼翼、同时又不失冷静地将针头深深地扎进每根手指的缝合处抽血,以防止指尖腐烂,这个过程持续了数周。
“说是缝合部位不能结痂,要继续出血,我必须感受到疼痛,”病人告诉朋友。“否则被切除的神经上方就会彻底死掉。”
韩江在小说中探究了韩国的历史伤痛。她深入描写了韩国最黑暗的两段历史:镇压了一场民主运动的1980年光州大屠杀;以及更早、更为血腥的济州岛大屠杀,它造成数万人丧生。
自从去年10月获得诺贝尔文学奖以来,韩江的小说在国内外吸引了越来越多的读者。这部以济州岛为背景的小说《不做告别》的英文译本本周将在美国出版,距离韩语版出版已过去了三年多。
上个月,韩江从瑞典国王卡尔·古斯塔夫手中接过诺贝尔文学奖。
上个月,韩江从瑞典国王卡尔·古斯塔夫手中接过诺贝尔文学奖。 Henrik Montgomery/TT News Agency, via Associated Press
获得诺贝尔文学奖后,韩江与学生们在斯德哥尔摩合影。
获得诺贝尔文学奖后,韩江与学生们在斯德哥尔摩合影。 Jonas Ekstroemer/EPA, via Shutterstock
去年12月韩国总统短暂实施戒严后,她关于韩国威权历史的著作似乎更具现实意义。韩国总统在那次事件后遭到弹劾和逮捕
韩江自获得诺贝尔奖以来一直远离公众视线,她在一次罕见的采访中表示,她仍在思考最近发生的事件。她说,她的书并不是刻意从现代韩国历史的一个悲剧篇章转向另一个悲剧篇章。
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但在2014年关于光州的小说《少年来了》出版后,她被一场噩梦困扰。为了理解梦中那些挥之不去的画面——成千上万阴森的黑色树干矗立在白雪覆盖的山丘上,被海水侵蚀——她来到了济州岛,这是一座拥有碧绿海水的南部岛屿,如今多以温暖宜人的旅游胜地而闻名。
正是在这里,一场抗议事件后,1947年至1954年间据估计有3万人在美军的默许下被警察、士兵和反共民兵杀害。约三分之一的受害者是妇女、儿童或老人。
《不做告别》的主人公庆荷是一名作家,在出版了一本关于“G—”市的书后,她被一场反复出现的噩梦所折磨,她艰难地穿越覆盖济州岛的大雪,踏上了一段旅程,最终呈现了一个饱受大屠杀事件影响的家族几代人的故事。
韩江说,通过描写个体深刻经历的一些韩国痛苦时刻,她感到自己与世界各地暴行受害者的经历,以及那些一直铭记这些暴行的人们有着深刻的共鸣。
“这是痛苦,这是鲜血,但这是生命的洪流,连接着可能已经死去的部分和活着的部分,”她在首尔家中的视频通话中用韩语说。“连接死去的记忆和活着的现在,从而不让任何东西消亡。我认为这不仅仅是关于韩国历史,而是关于全人类。”
韩国济州岛上的一座纪念碑,纪念20世纪40年代末和50年代初在此遇难的数万名民众。
韩国济州岛上的一座纪念碑,纪念20世纪40年代末和50年代初在此遇难的数万名民众。 Woohae Cho for The New York Times
一名男子指着纪念碑上祖父的名字。“实际上,每个济州人都是幸存者、目击者、失去家人的悲痛者,”韩江说。
一名男子指着纪念碑上祖父的名字。“实际上,每个济州人都是幸存者、目击者、失去家人的悲痛者,”韩江说。 Woohae Cho for The New York Times
曼哈顿唐人街Yu & Me Books书店的总经理特蕾莎·冯(音)表示,韩江的作品最近引起了人们的高度关注,销量也出现激增,这并不是每一个新晋获得诺贝尔文学奖的作家都能做到的。
“最令人印象深刻的特质之一是,她能够抓住非常具体的场景和文化背景,让你融入到那个时刻,但她非常清楚,那些极其具体的瞬间是历史的重演,”冯女士说。“无论你是在阅读光州发生的事情,还是在餐桌上发生的事,她描述的都是你随处可见的生活,以及随处可见的问题。”
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韩江出生于光州,父亲是小说家。她早年曾做过几年杂志记者,同时也在创作诗歌和短篇小说。26岁时,她试图创作第一部小说,她租下了一间位于济州岛的简朴房间,可以俯瞰水景,房东是住在她楼下的一位老妇人。
一天,在去邮局的路上,房东指着村中心一棵刺槐树旁的水泥墙,不带情绪地说:“这就是那年冬天人们被枪杀的地方。”
当韩江努力理解她那些激烈的梦境时,那段回忆又回到了她的脑海中。她说,她后来意识到,那些梦境与时间和记忆有关。
“它突然就这样冒出来,”她说。“实际上,每个济州人都是幸存者、目击者、失去家人的悲痛者。”
2016年,54岁的韩江凭借小说《素食者》首次获得英语读者的广泛赞誉。这本书用扣人心弦的语言毫不退缩地讲述了一名家庭主妇对暴力和父权制的安静反抗,吸引了全球读者,也让韩江获得了当年的国际布克奖奖。她的作品被译成28种语言。她的最新作品《不做告别》由e. yaewon和佩奇·阿尼耶·莫里斯翻译成英语。
在韩国,韩江已是从事诗歌、短篇小说和长篇小说创作20余年的知名作家。但她在全球范围内的成功扩大了她在国内的读者群,在她巧妙地讲述光州事件这一对韩国民主具有关键意义的时刻之后,她被政府列入了作家及其他文化人物的黑名单
在韩国光州一个为韩江而建的临时书咖啡馆“少年来了”,来访者将她书中的段落写在便签纸上。
在韩国光州一个为韩江而建的临时书咖啡馆“少年来了”,来访者将她书中的段落写在便签纸上。 Youngrae Kim for The New York Times
在光州“少年来了”咖啡厅阅读。这里是韩江的故乡,也是1980年韩国一场惨剧的发生地,当时军方屠杀了许多民主运动人士。
在光州“少年来了”咖啡厅阅读。这里是韩江的故乡,也是1980年韩国一场惨剧的发生地,当时军方屠杀了许多民主运动人士。 Youngrae Kim for The New York Times
和她的写作一样,她说话时带着诗人的严谨,总是深思熟虑、字斟句酌。金善英(音)曾编辑韩语版《少年来了》并和韩江成了朋友,她回忆韩江曾经开玩笑地告诉她,如果她乘坐的飞机失事,金善英不得更改她们曾经争论过的任何内容,即使语法稍有偏差。
作为韩国第一位诺贝尔文学奖获得者,韩江获得了奥运冠军般的赞誉。她的书迅速售罄,全国各地悬挂着祝贺她的巨型横幅,大量电视摄像机涌向她曾悄然经营了六年的首尔社区书店。韩江说,她二十出头的儿子因受到过多关注而感到十分困扰,甚至叫她在采访中不要提到自己。
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自获奖以来,韩江一直在努力回归安静的写作生活,通常是在一个洒满阳光、有木梁的房间里,窗外能看到一个小院子。她说,稀薄的雪花正在飘落,轻轻地覆盖她去年种下的野花,它们曾在寒流来临之前开出白色的花朵,但很快就枯萎了。
“可以自由地散步,观察人们如何生活,在一定程度的匿名下自由创作而没有任何负担,这对一个作家来说就是最好的环境,”韩江说。
韩江获得诺奖之际正值韩国的又一个动荡时期,至今尚未结束,甚至一度看起来可能会导致流血冲突。韩江前往瑞典参加颁奖典礼的两天前,韩国总统尹锡悦宣布戒严,并派遣军队进入国会——这是自光州大屠杀以来未曾发生过的事情。
韩江说,她一直紧张地关注着事态的发展,直到国会在清晨宣布废除戒严。
“无论是直接经历还是间接经历,1979年和1980年的记忆让他们明白,历史不应重演,这就是为什么他们在深夜走上街头抗议,”她在提到反抗尹锡悦命令的立法者和抗议者时说。“通过这种方式,过去与现在是相连的。”
上个月,尹锡悦总统宣布实施戒严后几个小时后,警察和抗议者聚集在首尔国会大厦外。
上个月,尹锡悦总统宣布实施戒严后几个小时后,警察和抗议者聚集在首尔国会大厦外。 Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

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为什么好莱坞不敢拍中美冷战

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为什么好莱坞不敢拍中美冷战

DAVID WALLACE-WELLS
Ibrahim Rayintakath
我们如何知道一场新的冷战是否已经开始了?
最近,有很多迹象可供选择。过去几个月,中国在台湾周边海域进行了近三十年来最大规模的军事演习,美国人则得知财政部和美国最大的几家电信公司遭遇了重大黑客攻击。特朗普总统宣布提名一批对华鹰派担任国务卿、驻北京大使,以及负责政策的国防部副部长等职位,他在第三次竞选中把与中国的关税战升级作为核心议题,就像边境墙是他第一次竞选时的主题一样。本月在《外交事务》杂志上,保守派历史学家奈尔·弗格森提出,美国的第二次冷战至少已经进行五年了。
但如果我们严格地将现在的状况与第一次冷战进行比较,有一个显著的回响却明显缺失。几十年来,美国人理解与苏联竞争的一部分方式是通过流行文化——电影、电视和小说,这些作品将冲突戏剧化并个性化,通常还会对其进行简化和神话化。而这一次,几乎没有出现这种情况——好莱坞没有真的努力利用高风险的全球冲突,即使是作为叙事支撑;更具个人风格的创作者也没有去探索这些冲突中复杂的人性层面。
不仅没有《猎杀红色十月》(Hunt for Red October),也没有《奇爱博士》(Dr. Strangelove)或真正继承约翰·勒卡雷的作家出现。美国现在与中国处于某种形式的冲突已成为政策分析师的共识,也是两党之间为数不多的共识之一。但如果冷战正在进行,你通过流媒体观看电影或电视是绝对无法察觉的,即使你把最喜欢的平台一直设置为自动播放。问题不仅仅是你在Netflix或Apple TV+上找不到一部关于美中竞争的好电影,除了《三体》以及一些历史纪录片,几乎很难找到任何关于中国的新内容。
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同样引人注目的是,我们都知道这背后的原因——而且甚至其卑劣。简单来说,我们如今观看的内容,绝大部分都是由那些在某种形式上过于依赖中国的大公司制作的,这些公司不敢冒犯中国的观众或领导人,哪怕只是冒险提及这个话题。
这并不是什么新闻。早在2020年,美国笔会就发表了一份名为《好莱坞制造,北京审查》的回顾性报告;2022年,埃里希·施瓦泽尔出版了《红毯——好莱坞、中国和全球文化霸权之争》(Red Carpet: Hollywood, China, and the Global Battle for Cultural Supremacy)。一些最醒目的投降例子虽然往往是小事,但也声名狼藉:《壮志凌云2:独行侠》(Top Gun: Maverick)的预告片中去掉了汤姆·克鲁斯外套上的台湾国旗;2012年翻拍的《红色黎明》(Red Dawn)里的中国反派变成了朝鲜人。就连NBA也被迫向中国政府屈膝。而根据报道,围绕中国报道的冲突也在一定程度上导致“囧司徒”(即乔恩·斯图尔特,Jon Stewart——编注)在Apple TV+上的节目停播。
但是,即使没有这些限制条件,我们又该期望得到多少成果呢?正如一位流媒体高管可能会告诉你的那样,中文令人望而却步,中国的社会习俗也很陌生,而美国人在品味和文化方面又是出了名的唯我主义。正如近年来许多人所感叹的那样,如今,好莱坞的制作条件也有很多不如人意之处,看起来像是一股源源不断的淘金热正在枯竭令人沮丧的新前景是那些为迎合最广泛受众而被降低到最低水准的流媒体内容,只为催人入睡设计。冲突的性质也有所不同了,美国人的手机、药品无人机都依赖中国(这只是将两个国家联系在一起的几条供应链而已)。
事实上,这也是这场战争如此奇特的部分原因,即便它是一场冷战也是如此——两个全球大国之间有着严重分歧,却又睡在一张床上,这种情况可能会使彻底的热战即使不是不可能,也肯定不是那么容易想象。但随着时间的流逝,随着这场奇怪的冲突不断深化和扩大,比大片表面上的调整更令人震惊的是,好莱坞对这场冲突依然保持沉默。
苏联第一次核试验是在1949年。同年,好莱坞给我们带来了《红色威胁》(The Red Menace)和《码头争锋》(The Woman on Pier 13)——又名《我娶了共产党》(I Married a Communist)。《铁幕》(The Iron Curtain, 1948)之前就已上映,之后十年里,有几十部带有明显冷战情节的主要电影——《地球停转之日》(The Day the Earth Stood Still, 1951)、《檀岛歼谍记》(Big Jim McLain, 1952)和《西北偏北》(North by Northwest, 1959),此外还有太多其他电影,无法一一列举,除非做一个让人麻木的表格——还有《正午》(High Noon, 1952)和《码头风云》(On the Waterfront, 1954)这样的寓言。《原子怪兽》(The Beast From 20,000 Fathoms, 1953)、《它们!》(Them!, 1954)和《天外魔花》(Invasion of the Body Snatchers, 1956)通过科幻和恐怖手法处理这个题材。
几乎可以肯定的是,这并不是一种特别健康的方式来应对一种新型帝国竞争的到来,这种竞争似乎关乎国家的未来、全球政治,甚至可能关乎人类的存在。许多本科电影论文都探讨了冷战时期电影浪潮中的扭曲现象,这种扭曲大多是政治宣传性质,直至史泰龙在《洛奇4》(Rocky IV)中单枪匹马捍卫自由世界、一位好莱坞演员出身的美国总统发表“推倒这堵墙”的演讲从而赢得冷战之前,这股浪潮并没有真正减弱。
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但是,如果我们只是小心翼翼地踏入一个新的地缘政治时代——这个时代部分由与崛起的超级大国的竞争所定义,那么,有些奇怪的是,那些寻求文化清算的人只能去看《外交政策》或《金融时报》,而不是滚动浏览他们最喜欢的流媒体——这一次,他们会发现那个地方一片空白。
相反,我们似乎像如今理解其他事情一样,在社交媒体上理解这些事——社交媒体除了其他各种功能外,还是世界上最受欢迎的电视真人秀。过去几周里,社交媒体方面的一个中心事件是TikTok的命运——这是中国科技公司字节跳动旗下基于视频的社交媒体应用,它不断演变,但目前仍不明朗,美国试图关闭它的努力也是如此。
去年通过的一项两党法案要求出售或关闭TikTok。据推测,这可能是为了削弱其在信息战中的作用,但公开的理由从来没有得到说明。但在拜登卸任之际,据报道,他将不会执行该法律,这或许是为了将问题简单地推给继任者——尽管拜登并未给出真正的解释。
但特朗普似乎将其视为一个机会。最高法院一致宣布,这项在参议院获得31名共和党人投票通过的法律必须维持。不过,尽管特朗普早在2020年就呼吁实施禁令,但他后来改变了立场,可能是被共和党超级支持者、字节跳动公司投资者杰夫·亚斯说服了。他在就职典礼上为TikTok首席执行官留了一个座位,并在就职日签署的一系列行政命令中,包括为使用该应用的1亿多美国人保留了访问权限(至少是暂时的)。
报道,中国当局正在考虑一种规避该法律的方法:将TikTok出售给特朗普的左膀右臂埃隆·马斯克,马斯克去年破坏了国会的一项支出协议,部分原因似乎是为了维护他在中国的经济利益。马斯克通过X一手重塑了美国的政治话语,而在国会投票之后,TikTok明显变得更加亲特朗普。不难想象在马斯克手中事情会朝哪个方向发展。
字节跳动最初提前关闭了美国的访问权限,也许是为了激起用户的愤怒,随后,它又在没有采取任何行政行动的情况下重新开放,因为它有足够的信心认为不会有来自特朗普政府的真正威胁。忠实的美国TikTok用户大量涌向中国的小红书,后者成为了苹果美国应用商店中下载量最多的应用程序,这让该公司的司审查人员感到震惊,他们匆忙阻止中国用户查看新来的美国用户制作的内容。至于美国人,当他们环顾四周时,他们可能会想,究竟谁是网络机器人,谁是喷子,谁有可能是傀儡,谁有可能是审查者,谁可能是间谍,谁可能会是操作者。
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我不知道围绕TikTok的斗争最终对言论自由意味着什么——或者说,对美国越来越赤裸的利己亿万富翁统治,或者对中国不断演变的姿态来说意味着什么。但在上面的一段话中,我可以看出一大堆电影宣传语,至少足够六部精彩的B级片使用。

David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells)是观点作者,《纽约时报杂志》专栏作者,著有《The Uninhabitable Earth》一书。

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Europe overhauls funding to Tunisia after Guardian exposes migrant abuse

A group of people on stony ground by the sea, many of whom are in distresstheguardian.org

The European Commission is fundamentally overhauling how it makes payments to Tunisia after a Guardian investigation exposed myriad abuses by EU-funded security forces, including widespread sexual violence against migrants.

Officials are drawing up “concrete” conditions to ensure that future European payments to Tunis can go ahead only if human rights have not been violated.

The conditions will affect payments worth tens of millions of pounds over the next three years.

Last year, the Guardian detailed allegations that Tunisia’s national guard had raped hundreds of migrants, beaten children and colluded with people smugglers.

Critics will view Europe’s shift in position towards Tunisia as an admission that a controversial Tunisia-EU deal in 2023 prioritised lowering migration to the bloc over human rights.

Until now, the EU has rejected accusations of wrongdoing in its dealings with Tunisia, arguing that it has one of the most sophisticated systems for monitoring human rights violations.

Officials, however, now confirm that new arrangements are being prepared for its relationship with the increasingly authoritarian north African state over “the coming years”.

A commission spokesperson described the reset as a “re-dynamisation” of the relationship, adding that a series of subcommittees would be formed over the next three months to ensure human rights were central to its dealings with the country from now until 2027.

“Human rights and democratic principles are at the centre of EU relations with partner countries,” the spokesperson said.

Emily O’Reilly, the EU ombudsman whose recent report concluded that the commission was not transparent about the human rights information it held on Tunisia, said: “There have been highly worrying reports about the human rights situation in Tunisia.”

O’Reilly said that during a recent inquiry into abuse allegations surrounding the EU’s deal with Tunisia – which included about €100m (£85m) to strengthen its borders as part of a larger deal – she had urged the introduction of conditions to reclaim EU funds in cases of abuse violations.

“I asked the European Commission to set out clear criteria for the suspension of EU funds due to human rights violations,” she said.

Last September’s Guardian report prompted calls by the EU for Tunis to investigate the allegations, though nothing has since been made public. Instead, the commission has taken matters into its own hands to ensure its dealings with Tunisia’s president, Kais Saied, are not linked to abuse.

Reports indicate that Tunisia has become increasingly repressive since Saied secured a second term last October, prompting a crackdown on activists campaigning for migrant rights, as well as on parts of the media.

Human rights groups believe that the EU’s tougher stance towards Saied could precipitate similar measures towards other countries where it has struck deals to reduce migration into Europe.

Concerns have already been raised about human rights assessments on EU deals with Egypt and Mauritania, and over plans to provide more funding to others such as Morocco.

O’Reilly, who leaves her post at the watchdog next month, said: “The apparent normalisation of the outsourcing of migration to non-EU countries must not obscure the fact that the EU institutions’ fundamental rights obligations remain the same.

“These obligations should not be sacrificed for expediency or to meet geopolitical concerns.”

A man in combat gear, a balaclava and a machine gun stands over a group of men sitting on the ground. A boat and vehicles can be seen in the background

极昼工作室|缅甸电诈暗影下,那些被更改的人生

CDT 档案卡
标题:缅甸电诈暗影下,那些被更改的人生
作者:殷盛琳、钟楚笛
发表日期:2025.1.23
来源:极昼工作室
主题归类:电信诈骗
CDS收藏:人物馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

演员王星被以拍戏为由骗入缅甸妙瓦底,经各方斡旋后获救。此事近期引起大规模关注与讨论。

根据多位逃出缅甸电诈园区亲历者描述,被骗招到缅甸的理由与话术越来越精细化。电诈公司不止为演员群体定制“剧本”,其他行业也不能幸免。电诈群体内部也不断进行业务培训、更新迭代。

在亲历者的回忆与记录里,园区成为犯罪的“天堂”:许多人在这里经受暴力、奴役与压榨,有些人侥幸逃脱,却面临艰难的自我重建。

我们记录在此停留的一些人与事,希望警示彼此,珍视生活,远离电诈。


2024年12月27日晚,当地时间9点半,从北京飞往曼谷素万那普机场的航班顺利抵达。东南亚闷热、潮湿的天气迅速将人笼罩。演员左洱有点懊恼没早做打算——脱下厚重的羽绒服,里面只穿一件针织长袖,仍显得不合时宜。

打开手机,国内经纪人的消息蹭蹭弹出来,嘱咐她,多加小心。左洱和这位经纪人是朋友,已经认识3年多。

两天前,左洱在对方的朋友圈看到一个出品公司为唐城文化、格莱美传播,导演为维拉奇·通吉拉的项目,正在招募演员。她觉得机会还不错,就主动联系对方,发送了自己的模卡资料和视频。左洱说,一般这种招募信息,经纪人会在不同的招募群以及朋友圈发很多遍,小演员很少会直接联系到项目方,都是由这样的经纪人作为“中间人”,发布相关活动信息。

12月26号中午,经纪人通知她通过了筛选。并要她提供护照信息、电话号码,以便剧组方订机票。27号凌晨,左洱就收到了预定航班的行程信息。“剧组”将往返机票都订好了,27号出发,1月6号返回。

27号当天,左洱和另一位同样入选的演员朋友搭伴从北京去往曼谷。刚从飞机上下来,还没拿行李、出海关的时候,就碰见了剧组安排的,来接她们走快速通道的泰国人(后来她得知对方是带领过关的工作人员,算是“黄牛”)。因为对方是异性,体型高壮,中文又不太标准,上来就跟她们说,“护照!护照!”出于本能反应,左洱没有跟对方走,用不太流利的英文告诉那人,我们还要等别人。他们俩“很害怕,像惊弓之鸟一样”迅速离开了。

演员朋友决定放弃拍摄计划,左洱打算去找被这个“剧组”选中的其他人,武文浩晚她几个小时抵达曼谷,徐大久、范虎更迟一天。

image

左洱拍的曼谷街头,当时她还并未预料到此次旅程惊险。 讲述者供图

28号,她和武文浩在酒店大厅见面,一直在想办法求证剧组的真实性。经纪人也反复求证,向剧组方要来公司注册信息、签约合同,以及导演本人视频和支付定金。28号当天,除了导演视频之外,“剧组”方都满足了要求。她们答应在酒店等剧组的车来接。结果对方称车在路上出了问题。

几个小时后,范虎、徐大久也到达曼谷。疑点越来越多,范虎说,他和徐大久前后脚到机场,为什么要安排两辆车分别接?另外除范虎外,其他3人的返程机票都显示被退票。

左洱和范虎在ins上分别私信了组讯上的导演确认,29号下午,他们分别收到了导演的回复:“那不是我,小心诈骗”。左洱说,为了避免打草惊蛇,他们决定先稳住剧组,说晚一点再进组。之后,大家纷纷订下了30号的回程机票。

直到回国几天后,1月3号,演员王星的女友嘉嘉在多个群里发布求助信息,并找到她们询问当时的具体过程。“比我们想象中更可怕”,左洱说,她们把所有跟这个剧组有关的信息都传给了嘉嘉,包括给她们预定机票的“假剧组”人员的邮箱、银行账户。

左洱说,很多事情是复盘后才后知后觉地恐惧。“很多细节,我们的防范意识真的不行,知识储备也不足,包括去泰国拍戏需要工作签证都是后面才知道的。”这远在小演员的经验之外。

她们足够机警,也足够幸运,才躲过一劫。但演员王星没能幸免。1月3日,王星抵达曼谷机场后,直接上了“假剧组”安排的接机车,与一周之前几位演员的命运自此错开。

后来的事情我们都知道了:1月3日,凌晨到中午,王星与女友始终保持联络,同步位置。直到与另一辆车交接后,彻底失联。定位显示,他最后出现的位置是泰缅边境,湄索县。

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左洱收到的导演回复。讲述者供图

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2024年6、7月,旅行up主野哥曾到泰缅边境湄索做纪实记录。当时,缅北电诈团伙已经被打掉,国内互联网上流传着有关缅甸“四大家族”崩塌的新闻。但电诈远没有结束,他从一些境外媒体报道得知,电诈行业的重灾区已经从缅北转移到缅东妙瓦底,就想通过拍摄纪录片的方式引起国内网友的警惕。

他看到了正在建设中的妙瓦底。他开车从妙瓦底南部的KK园区出发,沿着莫艾河一路北上,隔河观望对岸的各大诈骗园区。依次为环亚园区、UK园区、百盛园区、大象园区、鼎盛园区、TTM园区,Star赌场及园区、金鑫园区、御龙湾园区。大部分园区外侧建有围墙与高而密的铁丝网,上面安装有摄像头。

野哥说,据他观察,那边的园区分两种:一种是妙瓦底城区那些历史悠久的园区,比如大象园区,房子看上去比较小,也很破旧。这些园区里,有些之前是当地的学校,办不起了,租给了他们。

另一种建在城外,是园区老板租来的土地。缅甸常年内战,大量难民逃走,于是出现了大量无主的土地,在不同民间武装势力手中控制着。“军阀把这些土地租给那些园区的投资者,所以这些新建的园区都不在主城区,在比较偏的地方,周边都是农田。”野哥说。

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野哥追访“十大诈骗园区”的路线图。图源@破产野哥的黑白世界

而妙瓦底最北部的水沟谷亚太城,如今的声名愈发响亮。野哥从河对岸的China View观景咖啡厅平台上,能看到对岸正在建设中的亚太城。他说,这里也吸引了许多湄索当地的老百姓来观景,在湄索这座小城,没有那么多高楼大厦,也没有那么多工地。“他们都知道在那边搞了大量土地在搞园区,很多人也知道他们在做电信诈骗,在建赌场,所以他们像看西洋景一样看着对面。”

湄索在泰国境内,隔着莫艾河与缅甸边城妙瓦底对望。这里除了泰国人、华人外,还居住着大量的缅甸难民。野哥认为现在的中文互联网语境下,对缅甸的印象过于“妖魔化”,他说,中国人熟知的,那些在诈骗园区做看管的缅甸“雇佣军”,与普通的百姓是完全两个群体。

而被大家议论纷纷的偷渡,根据野哥在当地的走访,依靠货运码头偷渡入境缅甸概率很低,应该是通过大量的野渡口。泰缅边境线绵延几百上千公里,隔着一条莫艾河,建造铁丝或围墙根本不现实。枯水期的时候,连码头都不需要找,人可以直接淌着河水过去。根据野哥的描述,到了雨季,弄一艘小船,也足够了。

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湄索边境,隔着一条莫艾河,对岸就是缅甸诈骗园区。图源@破产野哥的黑白世界

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王星获救后,曾在泰国警方公务机上讲述失联过程:“过河”后,直到武装人员把他推进车,他才意识到,“我可能不是在泰国,而是别的国家。”他被剃了头发,被迫接受了2、3天诈骗培训。

事实上,类似针对演员群体的骗局早已发生过。2023年6月底,37岁的演员许博淳接到一则通告,对方以“S级大制作,需要保密”等话术,将他骗至西双版纳,并逼迫他偷渡出境,最终进入位于果敢老街的“红莲宾馆”。

许博淳在里面经历了三个月的噩梦。他的家人经过报警、立案,最终通过当地商会与诈骗公司取得联络,前后花费近100万,许博淳才被送回国内。

他看到王星被骗的新闻后,第一反应是,骗子的话术又升级了,像是为某个人量身定做的诈骗剧本。而他被骗时,还没有制作得如此逼真、详细的组讯,也没有环环相扣的诈骗逻辑。

骗子抓的时机也很合适,许博淳说,“现在大家都很缺钱,也缺机会。上次我去面试一个戏,是那种十分钟就能刷完的爽剧,需要4个配角。结果到现场一看,一大堆人在排队,有我这种上班族,有失业的,也有那种科班出身,上戏、温哥华电影学院毕业的。我在那排三个多小时队才排到。”

许博淳从缅北回来时,手机、微信号都被迫留在了诈骗公司。上面有几十个接通告的群聊,他猜测,“骗子通过观察这些微信群的消息,用小号进群潜伏,天天看那些制片、副导演、经纪发消息,会模仿得越来越专业。”

在看到王星的新闻后,35岁的程序员So也主动在社交平台上分享了2018年差点被骗去缅甸的经历。他回忆当时是在问答App刷到一条高赞评论,提到泰国工资很高,很多人留言咨询。当时他正处在职业瓶颈期,工作5年工资一直没涨,想换份工作,就私信了对方。

对方称是做猎头的,高薪工作地点在曼谷。为了稳妥,So找到有同样求职意向的一男一女,拉了小群讨论——对方要求三人通过Skype进行面试,一共有三面,两次技术面一次HR面。很快,HR通知他们签offer。

So在网上搜索了文件内容,才发现公司的业务是博彩。群里应聘运营岗位的女生对开出的工资待遇十分心动。但在临行关头,公司忽然告知So,抵达曼谷后需要上交抵押护照给公司保管。

So搜索发现,境外务工并没有要上交护照的准则,他想确认公司地址和办公环境。对方传来了两张简单的照片:正常的工作时间内,办公室却空空荡荡。考虑再三,他还是推掉了这个机会。

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HR给So发的办公环境图。讲述者供图

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综合公开资料,缅甸大其力,是因毒品泛滥而臭名昭著的“金三角”核心地带,湄赛桥下,曾是公开的毒品交易中心。

小智说,2023年末,由于业绩并不理想,公司开始对“猪仔”们进行精细化管理。领导给每个人分配了业绩指标,刚来园区的新手,第一个月最低业绩是骗到10万泰铢,第二个月20万。每10天会进行一次摸底,如果没达到本月业绩的三分之一,就要接受惩罚。做1000个俯卧撑,做不下去,就用泡了水的棍子抽,另一个人拿电棍电。或者做3000个深蹲,然后抱着水桶蹲两小时。

每日任务量也要达标。小智所在的团队主做“军聊”,即假冒军人身份与异性进行情感向网聊,获取信任后进行诈骗。他们每天会被分配4-5个“客户”,必须有至少3个达到“热聊”——跟对方的感情有升温——没实现也要挨罚。

根据他的经验,此类网聊业务在缅甸电诈行当里已相当成熟。小智说,公司已经打通各个环节,形成完整“产业链”。

他们会从国内一些工作室购买“精准粉”:这些粉丝经过初级筛选,相关团队在短视频平台广发评论,吸引感兴趣的人私聊,再引流到指定的聊天软件。小智这样的底层员工会接管账号,继续聊天,“不能让受害者看出来,和她聊天的人已经变了。”

之后,他们会进行二次筛选,通过聊天或考察社交账号,判断粉丝财力。喜欢到处旅游那种,一般都是有点钱的;兴趣爱好是在家带孩子、逛街之类的,“基本就没什么钱”,会被“退粉”。他们要选择的,是那些工作较好,但感情生活不顺的异性。

他们编造一套细节经得起推敲的故事,“打造很心疼女人的人设,都会有一个离婚前妻的故事……让她感受到你是个有血有肉的人。”获取信任后,就会推荐虚假理财产品,当受害者想要提现时,会有团队更有经验的人负责“打枪”,“告诉对方涉嫌违规操作,账户被冻结,需要缴纳同样数额的保证金才能解冻。为了减少损失,客户会想方设法凑钱转过来。”

诈骗话术也会在“实践”中不断优化。小智说,每晚12点左右,把客户安慰睡觉以后,是他们的业务培训时间。“有专门的组长教我们怎么聊天,培训怎么针对不同的人群(诈骗)。”

在缅甸更北部,果敢老街的红莲宾馆,许博淳被分配到的业务是“国际盘”,这也是许多诈骗公司想要转型的方向。宾馆一共7层楼,共14个不同方向的诈骗团队。他所在的7楼团队主要针对东南亚人群搞虚拟货币诈骗。

每个人面前有一台电脑,4台苹果手机,每天轮流登录20个社交软件账号,每个账号都有不同人设,不能弄混。许博淳这样的底层“猪仔”每天将定位固定在曼谷、新加坡的繁华街道,跟附近看起来有钱的陌生网友打招呼。与“中国盘”的许多诈骗方式类似,先建立情感关系,再引导投资,只不过,他们团队的技术更先进,搭建了可用于购买虚拟货币的仿真交易网站。

针对中国境内,有团队瞄准了更流行的跨境电商。按小智的说法,诈骗团队一般会去跨境电商相关群里寻找目标,再将目标拉到自己组建的群里面。群里都是托儿,基本上只有受害者一个真人,托儿每天都会发,自己跟着老师做,赚了很多钱,再把假截图发出来。“直到受害者信以为真,也想跟着赚钱时,就算‘上钩’了。”

这两年,由于国内反诈软件普及,发送假网址时,客户往往会收到提示诈骗的短信。小智说,他们一般“提前会铺垫(告诉对方)可能会收到那种短信。我们用的人设就是技术军官,说自己也参与了国家反诈App的工程,这个App经常有漏洞。”

但有一类“中国盘”经久不衰。小智记得,色播的业绩一直不错。这是一项针对中国中年男性的精准骗局:诱导对方下载植入病毒的App,就可以盗窃其手机里的通讯录、照片、隐私记录。

骗子们的脸在AI软件中成为女性,与受害者打视频“裸聊”,并将对方的不雅视频录制下来,进行敲诈勒索。“说如果不给钱,就会把你这个视频发给亲戚朋友,发给领导。”而受害者的身份往往经过筛选,大部分来自不错的国企单位。出于羞耻,或失去工作的恐惧,对方会乖乖按要求转钱过来。

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根据多个亲历者回忆,无论是大其力还是果敢老街,园区(公司)都有一整套细密的体系控制着员工。从时间、身体到精神,他们被奴役、压榨到极限。

首先,你会被剥夺个人身份痕迹,手机、证件会被收走扣押。许博淳在被卖到具体诈骗公司前,就经历过一轮个人财产清理:支付宝、微信、花呗,都会被榨干净,再尝试刷脸做网络贷款。当时他已经失业好几个月,社保断缴,贷款没能通过,躲过一劫。到了诈骗公司,每个人不允许使用真名,要取代号。衣服、鞋子都是统一的,不允许穿内衣,确保身上无法藏匿任何物品。

这里靠毫不遮掩的暴虐来建立初步威严。许博淳记得,刚到缅甸时,他们被像驯服动物一样驯化。每个人都戴手铐,一天两顿饭,要用手抓着吃,睡觉的时候腿伸不开,感受不到人的任何尊严。挨打是日常,被子上都是血渍凝固的味道,但很快,人的嗅觉会失灵,“习惯了”,他说。

小智刚进园区第一天,就看到有人跪在地上挨打,用浸了水的鞭子抽完,再用电棒“刷”一轮。晚上拉到“兵站”去,用手铐吊在那儿。后来他才知道,这个人是因为偷偷在网上搜自救方式,被发现了。

在园区,个人的作息、食宿统一管理。小智所在的园区公司8点多起床,9点前到达办公室开始和客户聊天,工作到晚上12点做培训,每天凌晨3点左右才能入睡。园区有自己的食堂,员工可以到食堂吃饭。业绩比较好的,还能点外卖到园区。

许博淳所在的红莲宾馆,除了1楼和7楼,每层都有很多间宿舍。除了团队领导能拥有单间,像他们这样的底层“猪仔”要住十几张床挤在一起的逼仄空间。为了监控新人,每个宿舍都会分1-2个老人。

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果敢老街,负责赎许博淳的中间人拍到的红莲宾馆。讲述者供图

友谊在充满猜疑的土壤中无法建立。许博淳说,一旦有人有业绩拿了奖金,就会招人眼红,被举报是常事。领导本身疑心就重,规则也鼓励告密者:不核实真伪,先把被告人拖出来打个半死,告密者反而能获得1万块现金奖励。

员工与领导之间有鲜明的等级,将他们拆分成不同阵营——即便有些领导最初也是被骗者。小智记得,一线敲键盘的底层员工上面是组长,能管着手下十多个人,再往上还有主管、总监、股东、老板。最上面就是“军阀”,即民间武装势力。他们往往也是园区的物业老板。

领导层,就算是小组长,也拥有一定的人身自由。他们只需要在“电报群”里报备,就可以出园区,吃饭会去园区更高档的饭店。组长有打人的权力,但不能免于惩罚。小智说,直到主管级别才不会被打,还能每月从公司营收中分红。如果主管手下小组长的业绩不达标,也会打组长。“组长对下面就会更狠”。另外,公司还有个特殊岗位叫做代理,类似于HR,主要负责从国内找人过来或者“骗招”,以名下登记的人头数为业绩指标。无论用什么方式,“弄过来的人越多,每个月在公司里的分红也就越多。”

女性是食物链的最底层。小智在园区的几个月见到了一些被骗招进来的女性,根据他的观察,如果是长得漂亮的,可能会被拉去做老板的情人,如果是情商高的会聊天的,会被拉去干一线诈骗。有些直接被拉去园区里专门的色情场所做服务。

刚进入园区时,见到各种超脱于日常经验的暴力,小智说自己接受不了,晚上恐惧、睡不着,“想着过了今天,说不定明天就没了。”但待久了,他发现自己慢慢习惯了。“在那边正常人待久了,都会觉得自己心理变态。”

环境对人的“改造”比想象中轻易。许多人被逐渐吞没,再也无法回归正常生活的轨道。许博淳遇到一些人,从受害者逐渐变为加害者。比如在农家小院挨打的男孩,为了免于惩罚,主动提出可以再骗一个人过来。后来大家才知道,被骗来的是他的表弟,一周前刚刚办完婚礼。

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想要靠自己逃离电诈园区几乎难以实现。试图逃跑的“猪仔”一旦被发现,代价巨大。

小智说,在最后一个园区时,他见过两个试图逃跑的,第二天被抓回来后,打得不成人形,“挂在墙上,拿那种比较钝的刀子去他身上割。”他听有经验的同事讲,就算逃出了园区,也很难靠自己去到安全地带:缅甸当地人有些成为诈骗园区的“赏金猎人”,发现有人从园区偷跑,会抓了送回来,领取园区的奖励金。另外,即便逃到了泰国边境,也有人专门在边境线上等待“捕鱼”。

理论上能逃离的方式有两种。其一,联系家人完成“赔付”,价格因进园区的时长不等。从被带离的那一刻,成本就开始累计——运送成本、住宿费、餐饮费、电脑手机使用费、买粉的费用,统统会算在他们头上。即便家人真的拿钱赎人,也不一定能顺利离开。“他们当着大家的面会说安排你回归,但其实大部分刚出园区门又被卖了。”小智说。

另一种是达成对应的业绩。许博淳所在的红莲宾馆,公司承诺,如果个人提成达到100万,就可以被送回国。但他听那边的“老人”夜里聊天提到过,2023年过年的时候,当时的业绩冠军达标,趁着过年放假想要回国。领导答应了,几天后把他送走了。但“老人”一个多月后在社交软件收到冠军的私信,对方说他被卖去了另一个公司。

逃不掉,也有人试图寻死。许博淳见过两个人,觉得活下去看不到希望,就想着咬舌自尽。但“把舌头前端咬裂了,死不了,反而吃饭更不方便。”

许博淳和小智都承认,成功逃离更多依赖运气。2023年8月,许博淳利用每月给家里“报平安”的机会,偷偷给发小发了求救信号。

他逃离缅甸后才知道这之后的过程,发小迅速把消息通知了自己的家人,并在他的出生地、户籍地、长期缴纳社保地这3座城市来回跑,最终拿到了立案告知书和协查证明。当年9月底,家人拿着两份文件到了边境,找到能传递消息的蛇头,和公司领导谈赎金。直到2023年10月上旬,蛇头将他送到清水河口岸,他被国内警察带回审讯,许博淳才确信自己真的逃出了缅甸。

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许博淳家人交付赎金现场。讲述者供图

2023年10月27日,以果敢民族民主同盟军为首的缅甸民族地方武装发动了名为“1027联合行动”的军事行动,与缅甸军方在缅北交火。据“果敢资讯网”报道,该行动是为“清剿电诈民团”。

小智在大其力因为业绩不佳,辗转被卖了3个园区,在最后一个园区,他才待了十多天,公司还在为他们做“跨境电商短期盘培训”的时候,园区就被扫了。他们被关在园区宿舍20多天,登记身份信息,上报国内政府,核实后才陆续送回国内。

等待期间,某天下午,他们分批被叫到园区食堂,缅甸当地电视台的记者来采访。“他们问我们是从哪里被抓的,从哪里过来的,如果有从勐拉那些地方过来的,就把你留下接受采访。”小智说,掸邦(掸邦东部民族民主同盟军,独立于缅甸政府)想要抹黑大其力这边的佤邦(佤帮联合党执政,奉行独裁,独立于缅甸政府)。两方经常互相抹黑,“都指责对方是诈骗园区。”

2024年2月,他们被送到云南西双版纳,因涉嫌电信网络诈骗犯罪,被警察押送到某二线城市看守所。直到2024年年底,小智才被取保候审。

目前他住在姥姥家,还在等待最后的审判结果。小智深居简出,大部分时间一个人待在家里。和很多从缅甸诈骗园区逃离的人一样,他们很长时间里会感到恐惧、不安,难以回到正常生活。

小智说,刚回来那几天,他每晚失眠,白天心跳加速,“感觉随时会猝死”。他不敢睡去,怕一觉醒来又回到园区宿舍的木板床上。进入睡眠也会被噩梦惊醒,“梦到被那边的军阀抓回去。”

家里人偶尔问几句,谈话便停止了,怕伤害到他。小智也没敢多提具体经历,“虽然他们没有骂我,但我心里也过意不去。”选择完整描述这段经历,他说考虑了很久,最后觉得“要是能详细说出来,让别人听到了,就不至于好像是我一个人在承受这种噩梦一样。”

许博淳回到老家,才发现妈妈为了凑够赎金,卖掉了县城唯一的房子,只能借住在亲戚闲置的房子里。另外,妈妈因此还欠着40万左右的外债。

他很快回上海继续工作。目前,他在一家教育机构做人事培训和招聘,对接上海不同中小学,组织春游、秋游,以及寒暑假研学活动。周末有时间,他仍然会去应聘剧组的兼职。但有了之前的受骗经历后,他变得特别谨慎,看到要去偏远地区拍摄的,一律跳过,写明在江浙沪拍摄,他才敢报名。

没出事之前,许博淳和妈妈两三个月才打一次电话,聊久了就会吵架。但现在,每隔10天,妈妈就要和他联系一次,可能三分钟就挂断,但一定要打这通电话。“如果我忘了,她会立刻打过来,她害怕。”

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小智说,在最后那家园区被“扫”之前,当地电诈园区之间已经传出了一些风声。他前一家公司的老板开始清理手下的人员,打算将公司搬往柬埔寨。“他们打算把没有业绩的卖掉,把业绩好的人给带走。”

电诈行业像在进行一场捕鱼游戏,被发现后,公司会保留“骨架”,迁徙到更隐秘的角落。

30岁的小熊在缅甸仰光出生、长大,是从很多代之前就移居缅甸的华人,目前在做翻译工作。她告诉我们,比起政变(缅甸军方逮捕民选总统昂山素季)之前,如今缅甸普通人的生活要艰难很多,到处都是战乱。除了担忧人身安全,当地还面临货币贬值、物价上涨带来的经济困难。

据小熊说,大部分缅甸普通百姓对于电诈行业处于一无所知的状态,那些规则、技术、加害者与受骗者,绝大部分来自中文使用者。最近,因为中国演员王星被骗事件,更多缅甸人知道了这个行业,但大多是看热闹的心态,“大家也在看好戏,啥时候收拾妙瓦底”。

2025年1月7日,王星在泰缅边境失联不到4天,泰国警方确认已找到王星。1月11日凌晨,航班抵达上海浦东国际机场,王星顺利回国。这场惊动各方舆论的事件暂告一段落。但许多人的心情并没有因此平复,他们还在焦急等待失联家人的着落。社交平台上,流传着一份名为“星星回家计划”的在线文档,用来收集其他“被骗缅甸概况”。

阿金在文档中只写了寥寥一行。她的丈夫于2024年5月离开家,她记得丈夫在那通7分多钟的视频电话里,半躺在一张红木沙发上,眼神疲惫,和平常不太一样,说话也有气无力的。以往跟孩子打视频,丈夫都有说有笑,但那天说话很奇怪——阿金说,之前丈夫说去了广东,那通电话里,丈夫问她,能不能让村里的人开车去接他?阿金问,是到广东接你吗?丈夫说对。“我们这到广东太远了,我说要不我给你买张机票,这样还能快点。”丈夫又说不用,有些事你不知道。很快挂了电话,失去联系。

阿金说一个月后,她去当地派出所报了警,但最后未能立案。再收到丈夫的消息时,他已经身处缅甸万海的一个诈骗园区里了。丈夫告诉她,之前表姐夫托自己办一个法拍业务,处理在泰国的一处房产,可以给一定报酬。结果最后被骗到了缅甸。园区建在山上,没业绩就要挨打,丈夫说自己的屁股被打得化了脓。当阳园区被打击后,一批人迁移到了丈夫所在的园区。现在上厕所、吃饭都得排队。

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China view观景咖啡厅,对岸是正在建设中的亚太城。图源@破产野哥的黑白世界

根据湖北省反诈中心通报,2024年11月,中缅警方执法合作,首次在缅甸当阳地区抓获1079名实施跨境电信网络诈骗犯罪嫌疑人,其中中国国籍犯罪嫌疑人763名。据媒体报道,该园区位于冰段河附近,全部是铁皮屋搭建,躲藏在深山老林里,依靠发电机发电,星链上网,非常隐秘,是著名的黑园区。

丈夫每次用工作机联系阿金,随后删除记录。最后一次联系是在上个月11号,丈夫通过陌陌联系上她,她想让丈夫去跟公司的人谈赔付。但之后再没收到丈夫的消息。账号也显示已注销。

之前,家里靠着丈夫的养猪场以及偶尔接工程生活,但疫情期间,猪得了病,养猪的活黄了,工程也越来越难做。她没有工作,所有精力用来照顾家里的三个孩子,老大7岁,老二5岁,最小的1岁。

有时候,老大、老二会问起爸爸在哪,她不知道怎么回答。丈夫离家时,最小的孩子才几个月,她怕孩子把丈夫的模样忘记了,就给闺女指着家里的照片,告诉她,这是爸爸。现在有人问小女儿爸爸在哪,她就会指指墙上的照片。

那天,老二看到了被大布盖住的爸爸的车,就问她,爸爸什么时候回来,好久没坐爸爸的车了,“他说我好想上去坐坐”。但阿金当时心情不好,把儿子骂了一顿,“因为他一说,我就心里酸得要命,你知道吧?”

阿金说,丈夫被骗到缅甸后,她的情绪变得很不稳定,总是发火,有时会无法自控地哭起来。她不知道这样的日子到底什么时候才能结束,唯一能做的只有等待。她祈祷着王星的事情引起关注后,能清理缅北万海的诈骗园区,把丈夫解救回来,回家过年。

注:据媒体报道,2024年8月至12月,澜湄执法合作中心组织实施了“海鸥”联合执法行动,协调柬、中、老、缅、泰、越六国执法部门共同打击区域电信网络诈骗犯罪及其衍生犯罪与枪支弹药走私犯罪。经统计,行动期间,各方总共破获以电诈案件为主的各类案件160余起,逮捕犯罪嫌疑人7万余名,解救受害人160余名。

2025年,中心将适时启动“海鸥”联合行动第二期,全力解救各国失联、被困人员,切实维护区域各国人民生命财产安全与区域安全稳定。

(文中左洱、徐大久、野哥、So、小智、小熊、阿金为化名)

刘夙的科技世界|今天不写长文,只发泄

CDT 档案卡
标题:今天不写长文,只发泄
作者:刘夙的科技世界
发表日期:2025.1.23
来源:刘夙的科技世界
主题归类:福岛核废水
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

1月23日,媒体报道,去年(2024年)10月中旬,中国大陆专家首次前往日本福岛第一核电站附近海域,独立采集了海水样本,开展检测分析。分析表明,样本中的氚和铯-137、锶-90等放射性核素的活度浓度“未见异常”。

这个报道一出,知乎上马上掀起了一阵阴阳怪气的热潮。有好事者立即甩出合订本,提醒大家,2023年8月核废水刚排放的时候,官媒为了反日,不惜使出浑身解数拼命煽情,根本不给自己留退路。有些当年的宣传——比如某官媒制作的一系列海报——我也是现在才头一回看到。不过今天再上知乎时,好多回答都找不到了,嘿嘿。

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我是日本排放核废水相关的舆论管控的受害者之一。2023年9月,我在这个公众号上写了几篇文章,不赞成那种非理性反日的宣传,结果被人举报到上海市政府,导致我的全部社交媒体都被封禁半年。

不过,尽管这些举报确实给我的工作和生活带来了很大影响,但其实我并不想一次又一次反复说这个事情,总觉得这样显得我特别没出息,老是卖惨,仿佛沉浸在过去的创伤中走不出来似的。所以今天这篇文章,我真正想发泄的是另一件事。

我是科学进步主义者。我认为很多涉及科学的热点问题,应该听从主流科学界的意见——当然,不是盲从,而是在充分了解科学界观点和反对科学界的观点之后,运用批判性思维,做出理性的认同。

在我看来,一个合格的科学进步主义者,也必然是一个温和的全球主义者,因为无论是科学现象,还是科学理论,都没有国界。如今很多环境问题(比如人为导致全球变暖),绝不是某一两个国家的问题,而是全世界的问题;没有全世界的视野,不可能真正理解这些环境问题,找到解决之道。

因此,多年来,我交友有两大原则,第一不要反科学,第二不能是狭隘民族主义者。所以我对微信互加好友这事很谨慎,对于话不投机的人,要么一开始就不加好友,要么发现不对赶紧删除。

但这么多年下来,我还是发现一个问题:狭隘民族主义恐怕是老中最不容易吐掉的毒奶。有些人能够通过我交友的第一道关卡。你说人为导致全球变暖?嗯,同意。你说转基因无害?嗯,同意。你说中药无效?嗯,同意。平时这些人也不怎么谈政治,一副人畜无害的样子。但一到关键时刻,这些人早年喝下的毒奶就忍不住要发作了。

2023年日本核废水排海时,就有两个之前通过果壳网认识的人,在朋友圈里大骂小日本,而且骂了不止一次。我和这两个人本来也不熟,就迅速双向屏蔽了查看朋友圈的功能,眼不见为净。

今年年初发生王星绑架案,我写了一篇文章《我没挨电棍,也想替泰国辩解几句》,指出网上流传的“泰国警方说每年大约有7万名华人从泰国被贩卖到缅甸”,是2023年由官媒造的谣言,用这种谣言渲染泰国有多危险,是缺乏理性的表现。这时候,又有一个通过上海科普作协渠道认识的人突然冒出来,在朋友圈怼我,说什么“老百姓不信中字头的官媒,还能信谁?”

念在互加好友多年的份上,我没有理会他的挑衅。不料此人得寸进尺,在我于公众号上发表《“唐玄宗年间的辣椒”是什么博物学?》一文后,又跑到文章后面公开留言,说:“这个味道才对嘛,这才是你这个号应该有的样子。扯什么泰国华人失踪人口嘛。”这一回我的态度很果断,就是在微信上迅速删除好友。让你看了我这么多年的朋友圈,已经给足你面子了。我可去你大爷的吧,滚!

批判性思维告诉我们,兼听则明;一味筛掉不合己意的信息,制造信息的“回声室”、“同温层”或“茧房”,是一种心智缺陷。但这么多年来在各种社交媒体上摸爬滚打,我获取的经验是:打破信息茧房,并不意味着就要宽容过头,让你自己陷入各种劣质观点和信息的泥潭。事实上,在合己意、不合己意这个维度之外,信息还有另一个更重要的属性维度——有价值,还是没价值?

没价值的信息,是垃圾信息。在这个信息爆炸的年代,排除掉垃圾信息的包围和干扰,是所有人最应该掌握的能力之一。因此,我一方面提醒自己,不要因为不合己意,就不去了解他人的异议观点,另一方面也告诫自己,不是所有异议观点都要听,那些没有信息量的、情绪化的、满是逻辑谬误的观点,只是垃圾信息,不听也罢。

就比如“每年大约有7万名华人从泰国被贩卖到缅甸”,你想证明它不是谣言,很简单啊——在官媒当年的那一串转发链之外,拿出新的独立证据来呗。如果你能拿出来,而且我也接受,那我立即道歉,承认自己说错了。但如果你拿不出来,只会瞎嚷嚷,说官媒比我更可信(诉诸权威谬误),甚至教我做事,连我公众号文章写什么主题都管,那你只不过是在制造垃圾信息。不把这样的垃圾源马上清理干净,难道要留着过年吗?

另一方面,我也不需要大家发表太多单纯赞同我的意见。我文章下面公开出来的留言,都是我筛选过的。有很多单纯夸我的话,我都没有放出来。您的好意我心领了,但真的大可不必说这些,谢谢。

写到这里,我想顺便做个承诺:我绝对不会公开我的微信号,要大家都来和我互加好友。这并不是因为我看不起大家,而是因为我害怕这样很容易陷入自恋,在“粉丝”的吹捧中逐渐失去理智。假如哪一天我违背这个承诺,要大家都来加我微信,那就意味着我的公众号已经不值得关注了。

当然,这只是我对自己的要求,不是对其他人的评价,谢谢理解。

知灼|枪毙一个郑筱萸并不够

CDT 档案卡
标题:枪毙一个郑筱萸并不够
作者:知灼
发表日期:2025.1.20
来源:知灼
主题归类:集采药
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

集采药品的问题已经持续很久了,但你永远叫不醒一个装睡的人。

三分钱一片的阿司匹林,你敢吃吗?为什么要排斥进口药,一味给病人投喂廉价国产仿制药?

这不,又有俩医生开始炮轰集采药品。上海瑞金医院普外科主任郑民华是这样说的:

“在这么价格低的情况下,药物质量可能不稳定,老百姓或者我们医院医生的感受,比如抗生素过敏、血压不降、麻醉药病人不睡、肠道准备的泻药不泻或者量不够”

北京朝阳医院心内科主任医师卢长林也表达了类似观点:有的集采降压药疗效欠佳,使用相同剂量的降压药,进口药可将血压控制稳定;而使用集采药,患者血压难以控制至正常水平或波动较大。

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卢长林

一个月前,北大人民医院心血管病内科主任医师孙宁玲就在社交媒体公开表达自己的困惑:

刚刚公布的第10批医保目录中,原每天仅1元/天的肠溶阿斯匹林降低95%,国产肠溶阿斯匹林每天仅3分钱被招标录用,这样价格的药我该不该给患者用?

高质量的肠溶阿斯匹林具有抗血栓效果明确、不良反应低的特点,虽然一片小小的阿斯匹林但在制作工艺上非常复杂……我不能用患者的生命做代价,去选择这种超低价格、没有临床试验验证的阿斯匹林,因为对有心脑血管疾病的患者来说选用抗栓好的的肠溶阿斯匹林才能保全他们的性命。

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这是涉及人命的大事。不能以民粹主义的方式提供解决方案。

一般读者不太能理解,何以国产药药效与进口药会有这么大的差别?简单说,就是国产的仿制药,比原研药在工艺上落后,又缺乏有效的监管,遂导致生产的药物多不合格。

不合格的仿制药,不仅无益,还可能有害。美国资深调查记者凯瑟琳•埃班在《仿制药的真相》一书中,揭发了印度仿制药骇人听闻的谋财害命。感兴趣的读者可以买来看看。

在这本书里,埃班提到一种抗抑郁药物的缓释仿制药,患者抱怨服药后头痛、恶心、晕眩、易怒,并出现睡眠和焦虑问题。有人说他们的仿制药片散发臭味。许多人服药后动辄哭泣。有人产生了自杀倾向。还有人有颤抖甚至癫痫症状。一名患者写道:“有时我抖得厉害,没法喝杯子里的水,或者吃饭时嘴对不准餐叉上的食物!”几乎所有患者都说,他们的抑郁症又回来了。

一名患者说:

我以前从来没有过自杀倾向,但改用仿制药一天后,我就开始恐慌,症状持续了一周,强度逐步上升……我出现了精神病的症状,自我厌恶,程度远远超过从前。我熬过了最艰难的日子,打了一个自杀干预热线,吃了两粒安定文锭(Ativan,抗焦虑药),并且再也没吃安非他酮了。又过了一天,我感觉好多了。今天我终于恢复正常了。

另一名患者:

我变得极其好斗,把支票账户里的钱用了个干净,在公路上别了几辆车子,还闯了一次红灯。我差点被撞死,或者撞死别人

还有一个:

“惊恐全面发作,当时我正以每小时65英里的速度驾驶车子,感到头晕目眩……接着哭了出来……我心想,我到底怎么了?是疯了吗?哭泣并没有使我好受,我下车在收费公路旁坐下,大卡车和汽车在面前飞速驶过。我强迫自己在路边的一条排水沟里躺下,捂住耳朵让自己镇定下来,因为我有一种难以抵制的冲动,想跑到车流里去”。

可不可怕?

我们知道,印度是仿制药大国。中国的仿制药,更多是在原研药专利保护期过后,才开始依样画葫芦进行生产。这中间,药效是否达标,不能只靠药厂的良心。印度的良心靠不住,中国的就可以?

中国2007年曾枪毙过一个国家食药监局局长,他叫郑筱萸,在其任职期间,中国药厂大跃进,法院指控其在审批八家药厂的药品和医疗器械过程中,直接或者透过妻子和儿子,受贿649万多元人民币。2001年到2003年,擅自降低审批药品标准,其后被揭发部分药厂虚报药品资料,其中六种是假药。2006年齐齐哈尔第二制药有限公司(齐二药)亮菌甲素注射液事件(详见“二甘醇”条目),以及安徽华源生物药业有限公司“欣弗”注射液事件,导致十人死亡,多名病人出现肾功能衰竭。

现在,这么多医生勇敢站出来,告诉大家很多国产药仍然无效的事实。这说明什么?

这说明,国产药不达标仍是一个普遍的现象。这个症结要从监管部门的玩忽职守上去寻找。

说直接点,仅枪毙一个郑筱萸是不够的!

修明札记|福岛核污水,又没事了

CDT 档案卡
标题:福岛核污水,又没事了
作者:修明札记
发表日期:2025.1.23
来源:修明札记
主题归类:福岛核废水
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

今天看到官媒消息,说我国科研机构完成对日本福岛附近海域海水的首次独立取样和检测分析,氚和铯-137、锶-90 等核素活度浓度未见异常。

此次调查结果是从2024年10月中旬开始,由中、韩、俄、英、法等11国共同参与,算是国际上最权威的一次调查。各国结果均显示福岛排放设备与核废水水质符合国际安全标准,暂未有迹象表明排海对相关海域海洋生物造成影响。这一结论算是为核废水事件画上了句号。

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简单说,日本可以放心去了,日本的水产可以放心吃了。在华日本人,日料店也可以松口气。

调查结果也显示出,2023年的某些人,有多么反智,也告诉我们,在真正权威的调查结果出现前,还是要遏制住情绪,先观望一会。

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2023年8月日本核废水事件爆发,在没有明确调查结果的情况下,国内掀起了一股反日民粹浪潮,群众的不理性可以理解,但想利用这股不理性的人可不无辜。

比如战马行动,借着这股反日浪潮不断碰瓷民营企业,赚取流量,惹得商户不堪其扰。

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还有一个自称“亚人“的网红博主,在圆明园碰瓷日本游客,并与中国翻译发生冲突,指责其不爱国,目的当然是为了流量。

因为这股情绪,国内甚至爆发了两起袭击日本孩童的事件,第一起还死了一个国人,胡友平为了保护孩童而牺牲。事件一出,让中日关系受损,在华的日本人也感到恐慌,很多日本人学校都加强了防护。

其实深究起来,这一事件中受伤的要么是国人要么是相对友华的日本人,真正的日本右翼分子,根本不会来中国,又怎么会受伤呢?真是亲者痛仇者快,希望这样的事再也不要发生。

不过好在现在有拨乱反正的迹象,对日单方面免签了,福岛检测没问题了,杀死胡友平的凶手周加胜被苏州市中级人民法院判处死刑,最近还处理了几个造谣“美国虐待中国大熊猫“的自媒体,人民日报也开始征集“中美友好合作故事”,至少现在是往好的方向、理智的方向发展。

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这一年多也告诉我们,作为老百姓,不要随便听信别人蛊惑,一定要有自己的判断力,对有些事情,还真得让子弹“再飞一会”。

老干体v|大学副校长建议开放外网,官媒报道,这是什么风?

CDT 档案卡
标题:大学副校长建议开放外网,官媒报道,这是什么风?
作者:老干体v
发表日期:2025.1.21
来源:老干体v
主题归类:网络审查
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

2025年1月15日,一位省级人大常委会委员、大学副校长提议开放互联网!而且还刊登在官方的《上海科技报》上!

这么敏感的问题,如果没有试探风声的意图,谁信呢?

毛祥东,无党派人士,上海应用技术大学教授、副校长,上海人大常委会委员。

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在15日召开的上海人代会上,他建议有序逐步分批恢复国际互联网访问,针对特殊行业、特殊地区、特殊领域,先开放一批。

具体而言,优先包括下面几个领域:

  • 自贸区、陆家嘴、进博会和虹桥国际商务区恢复国际互联网,有利于提升上海“五大中心”的国际竞争力,促进国际贸易、航运、金融中心发展。

  • 国际社区恢复国际互联网,有利于国际合作交流。碧云、西虹桥、古北、张江纳什国际社区吸引外国人来沪旅游投资生活,营造良好的符合国际惯例生活环境,不影响正常使用社交媒体X、instagram、facebook等,促进国际经济中心发展。

  • 科研院所高校恢复国际互联网,有利于AI科技教育创新。恢复国际互联网接入,进一步促进境内算力资源的发展,有利于使用各种AI工具ChatGPT等,促进国际科创中心发展,也有利于教师科研人员获取更全面的前沿知识。

从这几个方面看,确实是紧要的,也是可行的,相当于先建特区试点,如果可行,再放宽到其他区域也是可以的。

我们一向反对美国搞小院高墙,开放互联网也是展示开放决心、维护全球化进程的一个重要体现。

但现在的情况是,洋人一到我国,日常使用的互联网平台都上不去,无法跟人联系,甚至邮件都发不了,就像进入了非洲原始部落。

作为国际化程度最高的大都市,互联网断联给上海带来的实际和名誉损失,怎么高估都不为过。

毛校长认为,上海中国式现代化‘五大中心’大建设离不开全球交往、向发达国家学习借鉴新技术。上海通过恢复国际互联网吸引外国人士,可扭转人员外流趋势,逐步建成中国式现代化的国际大都市,可谓国士之言。

但我觉得,他这个发言,放风的可能性很大。一是他无党派,但级别在那;二是他还说漏了句话:「恢复访问国际互联网指日可待!

实际上,我国并非所有地方都不能访问国际互联网。之前,经过审批的外企和特殊机构,可以通过国际互联网专用通道上网,换句话说,跟我们走的不是同一条网路。

此番毛校长的发言如果成真,那就是从点到面,扩容了!

这个话题,自去年面对加入CPTPP的不利形势以来,逐渐解禁。

在毛校长发言之前,前几天,闵行《推进落实重点任务分工方案》提出,支持虹桥商务区企业便利化访问国际互联网。升级国际互联网专用通道

再联想一下2024年11月底,两办《关于数字贸易改革创新发展的意见》中「推动电信、互联网、文化等领域有序扩大开放,鼓励外商扩大数字领域投资」的表述,不禁让人浮想联翩!

这个文件第九条对改革的原因和目标说得很明确:积极推进加入《数字经济伙伴关系协定》(DEPA)和《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)进程

而CPTPP,差不多现在就是我们拼经济最重要的救命稻草了《我们诚心加入CPTPP,他们怎么就不信呢?》,所以我倾向于相信开放的诚意。

而CPTPP要求信息、**数据跨境自由流动、取消本地化储存限制**,我国此时调整,也是为了达到CPTPP的加入标准。

当然,外面那么多坏消息仍然不得不防。就像东北邻居一到俄乌战场,首战竟是沉迷黄色网站腐蚀灵魂!

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可见不让上外网多么正确而必要!

因此,如果真要开放,主要还是方便洋人,反正他们已经学坏了,就让他们一直坏下去。至于我们,除了看看理工类的自然科学知识,能不看,就不要看了吧。

再说了,美帝新统领的大幕僚、资本家马斯克要求中国也能访问X,我方发言人说得也很客气,只要符合中国的法律法规,欢迎来发展。

这我持保留态度,可千万别学伊朗《互联网开放了!》 ,否则女人都没那么听话了。

关胖本胖|上海医生吹哨集采药,终于有人说真话了

CDT 档案卡
标题:上海医生吹哨集采药,终于有人说真话了
作者:关胖本胖
发表日期:2025.1.22
来源:关胖本胖
主题归类:集采药
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

“血压不降、麻醉不睡、泻药不泻”,上海医生又一次站到了全国舆论的风口浪尖。

他是上海市政协常委、瑞金医院普外科主任郑民华。

在上海两会,郑医生等20位上海市政协委员,共同提交了一份《关于在药品集采背景下如何能够用到疗效好的药物》的提案,矛头直指“临床实践中发现某些集采药药效不稳定”,引发了不少医生的共鸣,舆论热度也很高。

集采药品的质量问题涉及甚广,是个马蜂窝。我真替郑医生们捏把汗。

01

其实,2024年12月第十批药品集采出现的“超低价”,就引发了社会舆论对集采药品质量的忧虑。据央视报道,有网友发问,“3分钱一片的药(指阿司匹林肠溶片),你敢吃吗?”

集选结果显示,阿司匹林肠溶片中选企业共7家,中选价格在3.4分/片—4.8分/片。这么低的价格,老百姓有点慌,业内也有质疑的声音。有参与集采的药企负责人在接受媒体采访时就直言“价格低于4.5分钱就属于非理性报价”。

医保部门对舆论的质疑作出了回应。

在2024年12月30日的官方公众号推文中介绍:

经查询国内某化工服务平台,阿司匹林原料药市场行情价格约每公斤30元左右,折合成100mg/片的原料成本为3厘钱,大批量采购价格更低,因此企业可以有效控制成本。

但是,这一解释似乎并没有打消专业人士的疑云。

接受采访的药企负责人指出,阿司匹林肠溶片的包衣片价格比原料药更贵,再加上另一种关键的辅料,整个原辅料成本很难低于2.3分/片。

另有专业人士指出,药品质量还和工艺规格有关,比如阿司匹林原料药的粒径越小,价格越贵,其溶出度越高,越接近原研药(在我国“原研药”主要是指过了专利保护期的进口药)。

医药行业有极高的专业壁垒,“阿司匹林之争”孰是孰非,见仁见智,无从定论。不过,阿司匹林这样的老药都有这样的争议,说明集采这事不是三言两语说得清的。

02

2018年启动、2020年加速的医保药品集采,中国的医保药品市场完成了一次大洗牌——短短数年,进口药、原研药全面退场,国产仿制药一统天下,实现了医保药品全面快速的价格下沉。

下沉好啊,有下沉就有商机。医保药品大洗牌,洗出了一批“精准踩点”的药界新贵。贵就贵在历批集采执行一年后与执行一年前相比销售额大增。比如,增幅高达265倍的广东某家医药公司,这家2005年成立、注册资金500万元的企业是集采变局的第一赢家。从地域分布看,浙江药企的表现突出,集采后的销售增幅榜T0P10的半壁江山出自浙江。

大大小小的药界新贵有两大绝技:

其一,是集采执行时间一年内上市的药品品种。这种为集采量身订做的产品,在很短时间内就完成了对原研药的复刻,业内称之为“光脚药”,很是形象。

其二,是“原料制剂一体化”,本来是制造原料的厂家造成品。除了浙系药企凭借“原料大省”的底蕴迅速崛起外,部分原料大厂也在集采前后进步神速。

那些大厂、老厂的“进步神速”还能用实力雄厚、技术积累厚积薄发的“超常规发育”解释。那些以“超低价”挤进集采名单的小厂、新厂,又是怎么临时抱佛脚造出“良心药”的呢?

且不说研发成本、设备折旧之类的“高端成本”,数百万评测费用的准入成本是绕不过去的。“超低价”仨瓜两枣的利润空间,是怎么抠出来的呢?

无从得知。

无论如何,医保药品集采成了国产低价仿制药的顺风局。光脚的跑赢了穿鞋的,造原料的“立地成仙”,画风相当独特。造仿制药真那么简单吗?就像网络流行的修仙小说里那样,阿猫阿狗拿到丹方、攒个二手丹炉,点火开炼成了?

造药可不是那么简单的。

原研药的专利会公布原料配方和主要工艺原理,但是药物的辅料使用、制造工艺是不会公开的。这些“细节”失之毫厘,都会影响药效发挥。所以,开发仿制药依然要投入研发成本、研发周期,以及相应的生产工艺要求,才能达到或接近原研药的效果。

即便是阿司匹林肠溶片这样的百年老药,也有一定的技术门槛和工艺标准,遑论那些发明二三十年的新药?所以,很多原研药的专利到期后要经过很长时间才会有成熟的仿制品面世,就是所谓的“专利悬崖期”。

我们的集采过程中,不少处于“专利悬崖期”的原研药也退场了,为仿制药腾出了药架。这是提前实现国产仿制药弯道超车,还是拔苗助长的放水?

03

仿制药替代原研药不是问题,保证仿制药质量的制度才是问题。仿制药低价但不能低效,需要技术加制度的双重保障。

仿制药的研发成本较低,所以售价便宜。省钱谁不喜欢?因此很多发达国家的药品市场都是仿制药为主。日本是77%,欧盟是67%。全球医药科技最发达的美国,仿制药的市场占比更是高达90%。这些发达国家的制药业水平高,巨头之间互相仿制没难度,还有一批专攻“高仿”的专业药企。

技术保障之外,更有制度保障。这些国家都有执行多年的药物一致性评价制度——即以生物等效性试验,证明仿制药在疗效和安全性上与原研药一致。

我国的仿制药缺的不是技术,而是制度。药物一致性评价标准出台,“迟到”了。对医疗行业高度管控的环境下,这多少有点让人感到有点不可思议。

直到2016年国家印发《关于开展仿制药质量和疗效一致性评价的意见》,对仿制药的建章立制才实质性启动,比日本晚了十几年。

此时我国已经是仿制药大国。16万个药品批号,90%以上都是仿制药。当时就有知名药企的高管指出,“仿制药一致性的标准,国家不是管得太严,是管得太晚”,“就是因为仿制标准低,有的药品虽然能达到药品注册的质量标准,但是疗效和原研药相比差很多”。

这项工作仅仅两年,医保药品集采就大力推动仿制药替代,条件成熟吗?茫茫多的仿制药产品良莠不齐,两年就评完了?

按理说,“迟到”也有迟到的优势。这种国外执行了多少年的成熟制度,直接抄作业也错不到哪儿去。可是,时至今日,我国药物一致性评价标准依然不完善。

此次争议中,就有专业人士提出“现有的药物一致性评价指标更多侧重于药物的主要成分和基本理化性质,缺乏对药物中杂质、辅料与主药的相互作用等方面的考量,这些因素可能影响临床疗效”。

药物一致性评价标准“放水”,降低了仿制药市场准入的门槛,为“光脚药”的长驱直入打开了大门。而过于偏重“成本控制”的医疗改革——集采和DRG\DIP付费改革的“组合拳”,则为“3分钱的阿司匹林”进医保留下了的后门。

2018年医保启动集采同时,启动了DRG\DIP付费改革试点。2019年全面铺开,中国医院跑步进入严控成本的“省钱时代”。

DRG\DIP付费改革就是按照病组、病种付费,即根据病组、病种的历史数据核定收费标准。改革的目的是严控医疗成本,杜绝过去按项目收费的“过度医疗”倾向。

和药品集采一样,DRG\DIP付费改革照例是国际接轨。DRG\DIP付费方式20世纪70年代在美国兴起,此后在多国家推广。

DRG\DIP付费的确是成功的,但是也存在饱受争议的弊端。比如,在其发源地美国一直有批评意见认为,DRG付费成了保险机构的牟利工具——为了降低成本,干扰医疗机构的专业判断,侵犯患者的健康权。

正因为争议不断,美国自20世纪70年代启动DRG至今,已推出了35版方案。几乎每年一版,就是为了DRG不跑偏——保持医疗服务在成本与质量上达成平衡。

即使频繁更新,也未能消除质疑。直到奥巴马医疗改革大搞美国版公立医保时,引入DRG机制更是面临技术和伦理的双重难题。技术上,难在人多地广,差异性巨大,成本账不好算。伦理则是难在“官民有别”,商业保险的减配限制还能说是你情我愿的契约自由,强制性的公立医保也能这么干?

如此复杂敏感的系统性改革,我们2018年试点,2019年就全国推广,这是梁静茹给的勇气?匆忙推出的DRG\DIP方案是“细节控”——“历史数据”为依据对治疗方案的种种限制,很大程度上代替了医生的临床诊断。

“新规”之下,医院严控成本,医生则在高压线下动辄得咎,大幅压缩了医患的用药选择空间。

这场快速推进的付费改革,成功地拆掉了医患自主择药的“壁垒”,实现了医保系统对基层临床医疗“一杆子捅到底”的高度管控。从此2020年后集采加码压价“洗”出来的药品名单无往而不利。新贵崛起,新贵们生产的“3分钱的阿司匹林”,不吃也得吃。

医保改革折腾了一大圈,从“病不起”的高价医疗,到“吃不到原研药”的“低质医疗”,依旧是难题。

04

争议爆发以来,医保总局表态很诚恳。想必总是要给一个交代的吧。

如果部分集采药品存在质量问题坐实,医保药品目录里会消失几个倒霉蛋。再隆重些,就是取消一两家药企的集采资格。但也仅限于此。

中国医保管理很严格,但是对违规药企处罚力度……不至于“罚酒三杯”那么轻,五六七八杯总是有的。

一部《西游记》,还是有几个小妖倒在猴哥棒下以儆效尤的。至于深层次的机制问题,解决起来可不容易。

本质而言,“3分钱的阿司匹林”引发的纷纷扰扰,是医保系统的宏观视角和临床医疗的微观视角之争。

比如“中国人就得吃中国药”、医保系统降本之类的宏观问题,忙着治病救人的医生无暇关注,管医生的公共卫生专家们高度重视。

至于老百姓,不生病时关注宏观,到生病时就关注病能不能治好的微观了。反正,视角不同,轻重缓急自然不同。高度不同,水平也不一样。

比如,争议发生后,有权威专家在接受《生命时报》记者采访时表示,临床一线专家发声所引发的连锁反应具有积极意义。他呼吁:

专家们能发布更有说服力的临床数据,比如集采落地前后使用原研药或仿制药的治愈率、治疗效果、不良反应发生率等疗效指标的临床统计数据。

进退有据、滴水不漏。“更有说服力的临床数据”,可能一时半会儿是出不来的。

这年头“3分钱阿司匹林”的消费者好找,拜耳原研药的对照组可不容易找。要是拿得出“有说服力的数据”,是药有问题。要是没有“有说服力的数据”,那就是药没问题。药没问题,就是说药有问题的人出问题。

反正,绝口不谈很多“国际接轨”的抄作业,怎么就抄成了南橘北枳?或许等权威人士生病,成了“临床数据”之一时,他才会想起这茬吧。

无论如何,这样高屋建瓴、顾左右而言他兼挖坑的发言,令人佩服。这不禁让人为郑医生们捏把汗。

众所周知,医生是高危职业,爱说话的医生更是高危中的高危…

Did Ukraine Kill Its Own by Downing a Russian Plane? A Year Later, It Hasn’t Said.

Russia says Ukraine shot down a military transport carrying 65 captured Ukrainians. Ukraine has not confirmed its role, identified the bodies it received, or said how it happened.

© Russian Investigative Committee, via EPA

A still from a video released in January 2024 by the Russian Investigative Committee of it said was the crash site of an IL-76 military transport plane.

川普取消「出生公民權」踢鐵板 美法官:違憲


2025-01-24T04:31:15.828Z
川普上任後簽署約百項行政命令,其中備受爭議的是取消「出生公民權」。

(德國之聲中文網)美國聯邦法官考格諾(John C. Coughenour)週四(1月23日)裁定,該項行政命令「公然違憲」,下令暫緩生效14天。

這起案件是由全美22州和多個移民權利倡議組織提起的5起訴訟之一。反對該法案的意見認為,取消公民權的命令違反美國憲法第14修正案,其內容規定任何在美國出生的人都是美國公民。

法官指「違憲」無懸念

考格諾週四在法庭上僅聽取25分鐘的辯論就做出裁定,他指出,擔任法官的40年以來,從未見過任何案例的問題如此明確,「這是一項公然違憲的命令」,並質疑司法部律師:「我無法理解身為律師協會的一員,怎麼能明確宣稱這項命令符合憲法」。

聽證會後,考格諾簽署臨時限制令,讓川普的行政命令在全國範圍內暫緩執行14天,而法官也正在考慮發布長期禁令,將於2月6日聽取答辯。

根據川普的命令,任何2月19日之後在美國出生的兒童,如果父母不是美國公民或合法永久居民,都將被驅逐出境,亦無法獲得社會安全號碼、各種政府福利及合法工作權等。

司法部律師回應

美國司法部則為川普的命令辯護,指取消公民出生權是川普努力解決美國「破碎的移民制度和南部邊境持續危機」不可或缺的一環。

在考格諾簽署臨時限制令後,司法部律師舒馬特(Brett Shumate)聲稱,該命令符合憲法,並稱任何阻止執行的司法命令都「極不恰當」。

川普表示,政府將對裁決提出上訴。司法部已計劃下週提交文件,要求法官不可發布時效更長的禁令。司法部發言人稱,該部門計劃會「大力捍衛」川普的命令。

事實上,川普在提出該項命令時便預期會面臨重大法律挑戰,因涉及修改憲法的內容都需要在國會獲得三分之二以上的同意票,並得到四分之三以上的州批准。

(法新社,路透社)

©2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。

UK has not ruled out EU food trade deal, says minister

EPA Lorries wait to disembark a ferry at the Port of Dover in EnglandEPA

The UK has left open the possibility of following EU rules for food and farm products in order to return to frictionless access to European markets, the trade secretary has said.

Jonathan Reynolds told the BBC such an agreement - which lowers all trade barriers in return for mirroring EU rules and standards - would not cross the government's red lines.

His comments come after EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic told the BBC a new agreement, including so-called dynamic alignment on standards, is possible alongside other areas of pan-European co-operation on customs.

Reynolds met Sefcovic at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.

He said he thanked his EU counterpart for his "incredibly positive" and "helpful" comments. Reynolds add that Sefcovic's tone was in keeping with what the government had already said about a "twin- track strategy" on trade.

"We can improve the terms of trade with the EU in a way which doesn't revisit customs unions or single markets or the arguments of Brexit, and we can do that whilst pursuing closer trade links around the world," Reynolds said.

Labour fought last year's UK general election with a manifesto pledge to lower Brexit-related barriers and red tape for the export of food and farm products to the European Union.

The question has always been how deep such an agreement might be. It could be settled in the coming weeks, though firm decisions have not yet been made.

on Thursday the EU suggested to the BBC that complete eradication of barriers in the sector would be possible if the UK followed relevant EU rules and standards as they change, a process known as "dynamic alignment".

Speaking to the BBC in Davos, Reynolds said that both ideas floated by Sefcovic - a fully fledged veterinary agreement with dynamic alignment - and a pan-European customs plan did not break the government's red lines.

On the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention he said it did not cross red lines because "it is not a customs union".

Asked if a "full-fat veterinary agreement with dynamic alignment" crossed red lines he said: "No, that's part of our manifesto, an SPS agreement, a veterinary agreement."

The Conservatives have voiced anger at reports of a potential new deal on UK-EU trade, with shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel telling MPs that the government was "bending the knee to the EU".

"These latest reports that the government might shackle us to the European Union are deeply concerning, and once again make clear that Keir Starmer and his chums are all too happy to put their ideology ahead of our national interest, no matter the cost," she said.

But the Liberal Democrats have said the government is not doing enough to smooth trade with the EU.

Party leader Sir Ed Davey told the Commons: "It is time for a proper UK-EU customs arrangement so we can strengthen our negotiations with Donald Trump, cut the red tape on our businesses and grow the economy."

Reynolds told the BBC he was preparing the UK's case to avoid potential US tariffs on exports, after President Donald Trump suggested the world could have to pay trillions of dollars to access markets in America.

New code of practice for getting a dog in Scotland

Getty Images A stock image of a handsome black Labrador puppyGetty Images

A code of practice for getting a dog is to be drawn up in Scotland under a new law passed by MSPs.

The Welfare of Dogs Bill aims to promote responsible ownership by making sure people understand the commitment required before they take on a pet.

Within 12 months the government will need to draw up a code, effectively a checklist of questions about whether the new owner has considered whether they have the time, space and money needed.

That would then inform a certificate, to be signed by the new owner and the person they are acquiring the dog from, to underline that both sides understand the commitment involved.

The new law is a member's bill introduced by SNP MSP Christine Graham, who has been pushing for changes for more than seven years.

The Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale MSP first tabled a Welfare of Dogs bill in 2018 but saw it fall at the end of a term of parliament curtailed by Covid.

Christine Grahame MSP with Susan the dog at the Edinburgh dog and cat home
Christine Grahame MSP has been pushing for a new law for years

The inspiration behind the bill can readily be seen at Edinburgh's dog and cat home, where Ms Grahame is a regular fixture - she literally has her name on the wall.

The facility is currently at capacity for dogs following a "worrying" increase in strays being brought in.

One of them is Susan, a four-year-old labrador-staffie cross. She is a friendly dog who has clearly had some training - she can sit, and offer a paw in exchange for a treat - but came in as a stray in October, having presumably been abandoned.

The home's chief executive Lindsay Fyffe-Jardine says dogs do come to them because good owners see their circumstances change, through no fault of their own.

But she said there was also an issue with "decisions which perhaps aren't talked through before purchase".

She said: "It's as easy to go out to the supermarket to buy your cereal as it is to get a dog from lots of different places and the reality is not everyone stops to think 'can I afford this dog? can I fit them into my life?'.

"Because it's a huge commitment."

Lindsay Fyffe-Jardine, chief executive of the Edinburgh dog and cat home, standing with Lady Ruby, a french bulldog
Lindsay Fyffe-Jardine said the home is now at capacity

This is where Christine Grahame's bill comes in.

The new law requires the government to produce - within 12 months - a code of practice which sets out steps that should be taken when buying, selling or giving away a dog.

This code must include a checklist of questions which prospective dog owners should ask of themselves and of the person they are acquiring the animal from.

These questions are intended to fit on a single side of A4 paper, and would include things like:

  • whether the breed of dog is suitable for the new owner
  • whether they have a suitable environment to house it
  • whether they have time to exercise regularly
  • whether they can afford the costs of having a pet on an ongoing basis
  • and whether they can commit to caring for the dog throughout its entire life

The new owner would then have to sign a certificate showing that they have considered the questions set out in the code, while the seller would sign it to attest that they are content to hand the dog over.

This certificate isn't a licence or a legally binding document. The point is to make people think carefully about what dog ownership entails before they take on a new pet.

Getty Images A stock image of a rather excited looking puppyGetty Images
The plan underlines that dogs are a huge commitment

There is already a 28-page code of practice for dog owners, which was introduced in 2010 under previous animal welfare reforms.

But Ms Grahame contends that few will have actually read that code, and that one which needs to be signed up to at the point of buying a dog would focus minds at the critical moment.

The Conservatives pushed to simply merge the two codes at committee stage, but otherwise there has been little dissent over the plans as they now stand.

The bill originally also included proposals to set up a Scotland-wide database for registering all dogs bred in unlicensed litters.

However, this was dropped after the government said it was "not convinced that developing a registration scheme would be an effective or proportionate way" to tackle issues around irresponsible breeding.

The final debate on the bill also included a row about shock collars, after Green MSP Ross Greer attempted to add in a ban on them at the final stage of debate.

This was voted down after the government pledged to return to the issue once further independent reports on the devices has been completed later this year.

情绪稳定的AI是比父母更好的老师吗?

在科技教育前沿实践者萨尔曼·可汗看来,AI的发展是既定事实,父母应该学会更好地利用 (包括科学地设定界限) 而不是回避或抗拒它。“出于对技术不确定性的恐惧而后退一步旁观、等待,或放慢脚步,相当于把机会拱手让给那些无意遵循技术应用规则和伦理的人,他们不会顾忌、不会等待。”

相比AI,父母的“不完美”或许也是“完美”教育的一部分。因为这才是真实的生活,孩子们需要学会如何应对不完美的状况

(本文首发于南方人物周刊)

南方人物周刊记者 陈洋

责任编辑:周建平

2023年11月9日,在浙江乌镇一家民宿里,一位学生正在使用AI学习机(视觉中国/图)

学生:我在学习多项式时遇到了困难。你能帮我解释下如何求这个多项式(3x2-5x2+2)的次数和首项系数吗?

老师:没问题!让我们一起分解下!一个多项式的次数是变量(题中的x)的最高次幂。首项系数是最高次项前面的数字。看看这一多项式,你能找出有最高次幂的项和它前面的数字吗?

(学生回答错误)

老师:距正确答案很近了,但不完全对。请记住我们正在寻找这个多项式里的最高次幂。让我们再尝试一次吧。

(学生缺乏动力)

老师:“嘿,你已经做得很好啦。不要担心,万事开头难。这个题有一定难度。让我们换一个解题思路吧。”

学生:我为什么要在意这个东西?

老师:那么你对什么最感兴趣呢?

学生:我想讨论足球而不是数学!”

老师:好的!假如你是足球教练,你想根据球队每周的训练量来模拟进球数。你想到了如下方程式:3x2-5x2+2。你能找到这一多项式的次数和首项系数吗?

(几日后,学生希望了解“联邦制”的概念)

老师:假如有一家足球俱乐部。如果要管理一支球队,球队是否可以只按自己的意愿运转?或者由一个中央政府来管理这支球队?联邦制则是一种政府体制,在这一制度下,权力在中央权力机构和较小的政治单位间分配,比如州和省。

上述回答来自一位学生与AI导师的对话。单从该场景出发,这位“老师”可以称得上是好老师么?评判的标准是什么?

在学校内外,统一规定学习节奏和进度更易管理,却会迫使一些学生在一知半解的情况下转向更高阶的课题,学习兴趣渐被消磨。广播式、一刀切的授课形式难以兼顾学生的个性化需求。

诉诸私人辅导?优秀资源稀缺且昂贵。曾有家长在社交媒体分享,中考冲刺阶段,经熟人介绍才能联系到的京城名师,一对一辅导的六折报价为12000元/小时。

家长是最终的托底,但效果因人而异。即便父母时间和精力皆备,且对学科非常了解,也不意味着善于分享知识。

相较之下,具有惊人知识储备、不知疲倦且永远情绪稳定、能随时随地给予学生动态且具体引导的AI导师,正在成为重构教育的新变量。

萨尔曼·可汗是身处其间的探路者,也是全球最大的公益在线教育平台“可汗学院”的创立者,该平台创立于2006年。从麻省理工学院数学和计算机专业毕业后,可汗最初是一名对冲基金分析师。为了辅导在数学学习上受挫的表亲,他录制了一系列长度在10分钟以内的教学视频。随着慕名而来的学生越来越多,可汗在朋友的建议下将视频上传到网络平台。

在这些视频中,可汗以对话的方式分享思考过程。相比照本宣科,抑或缺少耐心、居高临下,他对辅导的理解是,“与跟我同样聪明的人对话,只是对方还没完全理解已有的学习内容。”在他看来,学习速度的快慢与智力无关,只是学习风格的问题。有些人能凭直觉感知快速理解,有些人则需要细嚼慢咽。学得快并不意味着理解得透彻。乌龟最终有可能获得比兔子更多、更有用、更持久的知识,只要它们能在一个合适的“避难所”以自己的节奏迎接这些挑战。

此后三年里,这些视频广受欢迎,感受到内心召唤的可汗离开金融业,开始全心投入教育。作为非盈利组织,可汗学院的运转主要凭借捐款资助。盖茨基金会是其主要赞助方之一。在接受媒体采访时,比尔·盖茨曾坦言自己花费了大量时间帮助三个子女学习数学和科学的基础知识,最终才在可汗学院找到“最喜欢的老师”。目前,可汗学院提供的免费教学视频和个性化练习,已覆盖数学、科学、计算机编程、历史、艺术史、经济学等众多领域。

2022年夏天,可汗应OpenAI总裁格雷格·布罗克曼和首席执行官山姆·埃特曼之邀,对GPT-4进行实地测试并共同

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In California Fires, Trump Blames Newsom for Withholding Water. Experts Disagree.

President Trump has blamed a lack of water during the Los Angeles fires on California decisions that benefit a small fish. Yet experts say he’s confusing different issues.

© Mark Abramson for The New York Times

Firefighters have battled multiple blazes this month in Los Angeles County. That included the Hughes fire, where water from a state reservoir, Castaic Lake, was used.

Afghan refugees feel 'betrayed' by Trump order blocking move to US

Getty Images A group of people including women and children arriving at Dulles airport after fleeing the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan August 27, 2021.Getty Images
Many Afghan refugees now feel hopeless after Trump's immigration orders (file photo)

"It's like the United States doesn't actually understand what I did for this country, it's a betrayal," Abdullah tells the BBC.

He fled Afghanistan with his parents amid the US withdrawal in August 2021 and is now a paratrooper for the US military. He worries he can't help his sister and her husband escape too, because of President Donald Trump's executive order suspending a resettlement programme.

The order cancels all flights and applications for Afghan refugees, without any exemption for families of active servicemembers.

Trump argues the decision addresses "record levels of migration" that threaten "the availability of resources for Americans".

But Abdullah and several other Afghan refugees have told the BBC they feel the US has "turned its back" on them, despite years of working alongside American officials, troops and non-profit organisations in Afghanistan. We are not using their real names, as they worry doing so could jeopardise their cases or put their families at risk.

As soon as Abdullah heard about the order, he called his sister. "She was crying, she's lost all hope," he said. He believes his work has made her a target of the Taliban government which took power in 2021.

"The anxiety, it's just unimaginable. She thinks we'll never be able to see each other again," he says.

During the war, Abdullah says he was an interpreter for US forces. When he left Afghanistan, his sister and her husband couldn't get passports in time to board the flight.

Suhail Shaheen, a spokesperson for the Taliban government, told the BBC there is an amnesty for anyone who worked with international forces and all Afghans can "live in the country without any fear". He claims these refugees are "economic migrants".

But a UN report in 2023 cast doubt on assurances from the Taliban government. It found hundreds of former government officials and armed forces members were allegedly killed despite a general amnesty.

Abdullah's sister and her husband had completed the medical exams and interviews required for resettlement in the US. The BBC has seen a document from the US Department of Defense endorsing their application.

Now Abdullah says Trump's insistence that immigration is too high does not justify his separation from his family. He describes sleepless nights, and says the anxiety is affecting his work in his combat unit, serving the United States.

Babak, a former legal adviser to the Afghan Air Force, is still in hiding in Afghanistan.

"They're not just breaking their promise to us - they're breaking us," he says.

Getty Images Afghans struggle to reach the foreign forces to show their credentials to flee the country outside the Hamid Karzai International Airport, in Kabul, Afghanistan.Getty Images
In the final days of US control, Kabul airport was flooded with desperate Afghans hoping to escape the Taliban

The BBC has seen letters from the United Nations confirming his role, as well as a letter endorsing his asylum claim by a Lt Colonel in the US Air Force. The endorsement adds that he provided advice on strikes targeting militants linked to both the Taliban and the Islamic State group.

Babak can't understand the president's decision, given that he worked alongside US troops. "We risked our lives because of those missions. Now we're in grave danger," he says.

He has been moving his wife and young son from location to location, desperately trying to stay hidden. He claims his brother was tortured for his whereabouts. The BBC cannot verify this part of his story, given the nature of his claims.

Babak is appealing to Trump and his National Security Adviser Mike Waltz to change their minds.

"Mike Waltz, you served in Afghanistan. Please encourage the president," he tells us.

Before saying goodbye, he adds: "The one ray of light we've been holding onto has been extinguished."

Ahmad managed to fly out to the US amid the chaos of the withdrawal but is now separated from his family. He felt he had no choice but to leave his father, mother and teenage siblings behind.

If he and his father had not worked with the US, he says, his family would not be targets of the Taliban government. "I can't sleep knowing I'm one of the reasons they're in this situation," he adds.

Before the Taliban takeover, Ahmad worked for a non-profit called Open Government Partnership (OGP), co-founded by the US 13 years ago and headquartered in Washington. He says the work he's proudest of is establishing a special court to address abuses against women.

But he claims his work at OGP and his advocacy for women made him a target and he was shot by Taliban fighters in 2021 before the Taliban took over the country.

The BBC has seen a letter from a hospital in Pennsylvania assessing "evidence of injury from bullet and bullet fragments" which they say is "consistent with his account of what happened to him in Kabul".

Getty Images A man with his back to the camera dressed in traditional Afghan clothing speaks to a group of four US soldiers and an Afghan interpreter.Getty Images
Afghans who worked alongside US and coalition troops feel betrayed by Trump

Making matters worse, he says his family is also in danger because his father was a colonel with the Afghan army and assisted the CIA. The BBC has seen a certificate, provided by the Afghan National Security Forces, thanking his father for his service.

Ahmad says the Taliban government has harassed his parents, brothers and sisters, so they fled to Pakistan. The BBC has seen photos showing Ahmad's father and brother being treated in a hospital for injuries he claims were inflicted by people from the Taliban government.

His family had completed several steps of the resettlement programme. He says he even provided evidence that he has enough funds to support his family once they arrive in the US, without any government help.

Now Ahmad says the situation is critical. His family are in Pakistan on visas that will expire within months. He has contacted the IOM and has been told to "be patient".

The head of #AfghanEvac, a non-profit group helping eligible Afghan refugees resettle, said he estimated 10,000-15,000 people were in the late stages of their applications.

Mina, who is pregnant, has been waiting for a flight out of Islamabad for six months. She worries her terror will threaten her unborn child. "If I lose the baby, I'll kill myself," she told the BBC.

She says she used to protest for women's rights, even after the Taliban government took control of Afghanistan. She claims she was arrested in 2023 and detained overnight.

"Even then I didn't want to leave Afghanistan. I went into hiding after my release, but they called me and said next time, they'd kill me," she says.

Mina worries the Pakistani government will send her back to Afghanistan. That's partly because Pakistan will not grant Afghan refugees asylum indefinitely.

The country has taken in hundreds of thousands of refugees from its neighbour, over decades of instability in the region. According to the UN refugee agency, the country hosts three million Afghan nationals, about 1.4 million of whom are documented.

As cross-border tensions with the Taliban government have flared, there has been growing concern over the fate of Afghans in Pakistan, with reports of alleged intimidation and detentions. The UN special rapporteur has said he's concerned and Afghans in the region deserve better treatment.

Pakistan's government says it is expelling foreign nationals who are in the country illegally back to Afghanistan and confirmed search raids were conducted in January.

According to the IOM, more than 795,000 Afghans have been expelled from Pakistan since last September.

The Afghan refugees we've spoken to feel caught between a homeland where their lives are in danger, and a host country whose patience is running out.

They had been pinning their hopes on the US - but what seemed a safe harbour has been abruptly blocked off by the new president until further notice.

达赖喇嘛新书描述与中国历任领导人的谈判与抗争

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达赖喇嘛新书描述与中国历任领导人的谈判与抗争

ALEXANDRA ALTER
达赖喇嘛是西藏的精神领袖。他在1959年中国占领西藏后逃离故乡, 此后一直在流亡中致力于维护西藏的文化、宗教和语言。
达赖喇嘛是西藏的精神领袖。他在1959年中国占领西藏后逃离故乡, 此后一直在流亡中致力于维护西藏的文化、宗教和语言。 Vincent Kessler/Reuters
在几十年的流亡生活中,西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛出版了数十本书,其中包括两本自传和内容涉及伦理、佛教哲学与实践,以及宗教与科学的交集的著作。但他很少涉足纯粹的政治。
现在,在3月即将出版的《为无声者发声:为我的家乡和人民与中国抗争七十余年》(Voice for the Voiceless: Over Seven Decades of Struggle With China for My Land and My People)一书中,达赖喇嘛首次详细描述了他与历任中国领导人之间充满争议的谈判,从他19岁时与毛泽东的会面,到他近期试图与习近平和其他中国官员进行沟通。该书还深入探讨了达赖喇嘛为保护西藏独特的文化、宗教和语言,以及确保生活在中国统治下的藏人受到保护所做的努力。
这本书的出版正值西藏人民处于一个特别脆弱的时刻,崛起的中国在世界各地展示其军事和经济实力,而这位年迈的西藏领导人正努力确保西藏人民争取自治的斗争不会在其他全球危机中被遗忘。
达赖喇嘛写道,在临近90岁之际,他的目标是留下工作记录,并为他死后从事西藏事业的人提供指导。
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“尽管遭受了种种苦难和破坏,我们仍然坚定地抱有希望通过和平方式解决我们争取自由和尊严的斗争,”达赖喇嘛在一份声明中表示。“这本书汲取了我数十年来与北京接触的经验教训,还试图提供一些关于前进道路的思考。”
他继续说:“我希望这本书能在今天激发新的思考和对话,并为西藏的未来提供一个框架,即使在我离开之后也是如此。”
达赖喇嘛丹增嘉措1935年出生于当时西藏东北部的一个农民家庭,两岁时被认定为十三世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童,并开始接受寺院训练和学习佛教哲学。
1950年,中国军队进入西藏,年仅16岁的他突然不得不成为西藏的政治领袖,带领西藏度过危机。从那时起,西藏的独立权就一直存在争议。1959年,在西藏起义期间,达赖喇嘛逃离西藏前往印度,再未返回故土。
“我曾希望能在死之前至少回去一次,”他写道。“这看起来越来越不可能了。”
在《为无声者发声》一书中,达赖喇嘛描述了从年轻时就肩负起领导西藏所带来的个人代价。他回忆起与中国共产党最高领导人毛泽东会面时,后者表达了对西藏深厚宗教文化的轻蔑。
他描述了自己是如何在与中国领导人多年的谈判无果后,认定争取西藏独立是一项无望的事业。于是他开始倡导藏人在中国境内享有文化自治,而不是完全独立。
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他承认自己的温和立场激怒了一些藏人,他们认为他放弃了藏人恢复独立的希望,他也承认自己的做法在很大程度上未能取得成效。他还对以自焚作为抗议方式的藏人表达了矛盾的情感,指出他认为他们的行为是极度无助的结果,尽管他不赞同他们的方式,并坚持认为非暴力抗议是唯一在道义上站得住脚的反抗方式。
2011年,达赖喇嘛卸任西藏政治领导人,为西藏流亡政府选举政治领导人铺平了道路。他指出,他与中国政府就西藏地位问题的正式对话在2010年陷入僵局,但他继续与中国领导人保持非正式的,有时是保密的接触,直到2019年。
在那之后的几年里,他震惊地发现,中国一直在强行同化藏人,手段包括将藏族儿童送入寄宿学校,让他们在那里用普通话学习,并向他们灌输汉人将藏人从农奴制下解放出来的观念。他还直言不讳地批评了中国对待本国公民的方式。
他写道:“从习近平执政的上个十年来看,在个人自由和日常生活方面,中国似乎又回到了毛泽东时代的高压政策,只不过现在是通过最先进的数字监控和控制技术来执行的。”
达赖喇嘛还谈到了关于他的继任者这一棘手问题。
藏传佛教信徒认为,达赖喇嘛是历代达赖喇嘛的第十四世转世,他是一个开悟者,会连续几世转世,继续他作为精神领袖的工作。但达赖喇嘛警告,中国可能会试图在他死后选择第十五世达赖喇嘛,就像对西藏另一位高级精神领袖班禅喇嘛所做的那样。
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为了避免中国的干涉,达赖喇嘛说他将在西藏或中国以外的“自由世界”转世。他写道,在今年年满90岁时,他将征求西藏宗教领袖和民众的意见,看他们是否希望彻底终止达赖喇嘛制度。
《为无声者发声》将于3月11日由美国威廉·莫罗出版社和英国哈珀非虚构出版社出版,随后将在澳大利亚、加拿大、德国、意大利、法国、荷兰和巴西发行。达赖喇嘛的长期译者图登晋巴说,这本书还将以藏文出版,并翻译成中文,希望它能影响一些中国读者,尽管这本书很可能在中国被禁。
“他想要一份证词,记录他思维的演变。”图登晋巴说。“这本书试图在一本著作中呈现他所有的努力,不仅是向中国方面寻求通过谈判解决的努力,也包括在流亡中重建西藏文明的努力。”

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