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观人随笔|如果连法治都不能聊,那算哪门子的法治社会!

CDT 档案卡
标题:如果连法治都不能聊,那算哪门子的法治社会!
作者:顾意
发表日期:2024.12.22
来源:微信公众号“观人随笔”
主题归类:你法我笑
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

我所欣慰的是,今天,仍有人在朋友圈里孜孜不倦地普及法律知识。

他们有的是律师,有的是法学教授,有的是自媒体人。向他们致敬。

也有人跟我留言说,你敢聊聊法治吗?

我一听,就拍案而起!

你说得什么话?!在法治社会,法治有什么不能聊的!我们要天天聊、处处聊、人人聊!只要不裸聊,怎么聊都可以!

我们难道不就是要形成人人聊法治、人人盼法治、人人懂法治的美好社会吗?

人人可聊法治,是法治社会的基础标志。如果一个社会连法治都不能聊,那它算哪门子的法治社会!

还有人跟我说,你敢聊聊依法执法、依法送医吗?

这又是什么糊涂话!“依法”二字后面,只要不是加违法的东西,加任何内容都可以。执法、送医加在依法后面,理所当然,天经地义。执法者还能跑到法律头上不成?

真的不明白,有些人问这些根本不是问题的问题干什么。你想说什么?几个意思?

依法执法,这四个字,肯定没问题。谁要敢说这四个字有问题,那么他一定有问题。我这么说,没问题吧?

当然,说归说,更关键的是做。比如,依法送医,依的是什么法?谁有权力送?送去哪?这些细节既然有人质疑,就有必要解释清楚。

很多人把“依法+”简单地理解为对公民个人的要求,比如违反相关规定会如何处理,不服从管理要求会如何处置等等。这其实是片面的,甚至都没有抓住重点。

在依法执法的工作中,政府是主导部门,也是权力部门、管理部门、服务部门,因此在具体的施策、执法过程中,就更加要注重守法有序,这既是践行依法治国,也是为了公平正义。

所谓“遵纪守法,人人有责”,领导干部要带头,党员要发挥先锋模范作用,一线执法者更要知法守法、执法守法。

没有一定的法律授权,没有必要的法定程序,不可以轻易地对普通居民要求什么。这个底线就是法治的底线,就是依法治国的底线。

就是天王老子来了,也不能突破“依法”的底线。谁要是突破这个底线,就该让他尝尝法律的铁拳。

在《人民日报》图文数据库检索“依法治国”,可以看到,“依法治国”出现在标题中的次数为600多条,出现在正文和标题中次数是1万多条。

随便拎出来一些话,都可以作为依法送医的行动纲领:

“严格规范公正文明执法是一个整体,要准确把握、全面贯彻,不能畸轻畸重、顾此失彼。执法的最好效果就是让人心服口服。”

“坚持以法为据、以理服人、以情感人,努力实现最佳的法律效果、政治效果、社会效果。”

“全面依法治国最广泛、最深厚的基础是人民,必须坚持为了人民、依靠人民。”

“要把体现人民利益、反映人民愿望、维护人民权益、增进人民福祉落实到全面依法治国各领域全过程。推进全面依法治国,根本目的是依法保障人民权益。”

……

以上,我为我说的话负责。我就不信,这些方方正正的文字,浓眉大眼的道理,敢情还有人说它错了。我觉得登在《人民日报》上都没有问题,我可以不要稿费。

你们说,是也不是?

剑客写字的地方|送精神病医院,比拘留还要可怕!

img

看了李宜雪的通报,没看懂街道社区把她送到精神病医院的操作。这年头,街道社区是什么势力,这么神勇的吗?居然有权力想把谁送精神病医院就把谁送医院,他们是谁的部下?

通报里称警方从北京找来了专家,鉴定李宜雪是“强迫性障碍、人格障碍”,我压根没查到这是什么说法,只有一个叫“强迫性人格障碍”的东西,而那本身是不必送医的。

莫非分开写,是为了强制扭送精神病医院?

CDT 档案卡
标题:送精神病医院,比拘留还要可怕!
作者:送青人
发表日期:2024.12.22
来源:微信公众号“剑客写字的地方”
主题归类:李宜雪事件
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

就算是李宜雪的家人要这么干,至少也得拿出她伤害别人或者伤害自己的证明才行。否则别人是精神病,她天天在家里睡觉,关你p事?

这不叫防患于未然,没有发生的事情就是臆想,仅靠一点臆想便伤害他人,难道不比精神病更可怕?你根据梅超风练了九阴真经滥杀无辜的现象,就要炮决其他练过九阴真经的人,防止他们作恶。郭靖冤不冤?

这显然比被警察拘留更可怕。被拘留了,至少得说明你违什么规,犯什么法。但把你关进精神病医院则不需要,因为此时你已经失去了“解释权”——一个精神病的话怎么能信呢?

更讽刺的是,通报本身让人看不懂,李宜雪被送精神病医院的理由,似乎是因为她在网上说了什么,言语攻击了谁,这才导致现在又被强行扭送精神病医院了……这行为真的不违法吗?当然,我是说李宜雪,她违法了你们应该批捕她;比如造谣、损害他人名誉权,甚至不能直接批捕,那不公平和透明,这不就是诉讼的意义吗?

至少得给别人一个证明清白的机会,这样的社会才能让人安心。

可他们把她再一次送到了精神病医院里,是的,再一次。第一次把李宜雪送到精神病医院是2年前,当时李宜雪报警控告有一名辅警猥亵她。之后也不知道怎么了,就说李宜雪要跳楼轻生是个精神病,把她送精神病医院关了56天。

说来也神奇,56天出来后,当初那个要跳楼轻生的人,竟然不跳楼了,也不轻生了,而是开启维权之路,起诉江西省精神病院,甚至把这家精神病医院告上了法院。

而可怕的是,现在他们把一个原告再次送到了那个被告手里。双方本就是一种“仇恨”的关系,把其中一方交给另一方“处理”,我只能说可怕。

网上有人说,没有人比精神病医院更懂怎么把人变成精神病。我不是很相信这种说法,但一个正常人在一群精神病的世界里,时间长了,恐怕精神很难不崩溃。然后成为真的精神病!

最后还有一点,这起事件按理说人们应该相信警方的通报,可为什么引起了那么大的舆论,那么多的热搜,那么多的质疑和谩骂?

很合理,毕竟同一个地方,弄出过提灯定损,弄出过鼠头鸭脖这些荒诞至极的事情。尤其是鼠头鸭脖,市监局拿着去鉴定,一口咬死就是鸭脖,最终被啪啪打脸,这是对信任何等程度的破坏?

千万不要再搞一次!

袭击德国圣诞市场的塔勒布·A究竟何人?


2024-12-23T13:16:32.869Z
塔勒布·A开着这辆车冲进了人群

(德国之声中文网)2024年12月20日,马格德堡圣诞市场发生一起严重袭击事件,造成5人死亡、200多人受伤。几天过去后,嫌疑人塔勒布·A(Taleb A.)这位50岁的沙特裔医生,其复杂的个人背景逐步浮出水面。

塔勒布·A早在2006年就抵达德国,并于2016年以政治迫害为由获得难民身份。然而,他与德国社会和政府机构的关系一直颇为紧张。德国之声从他个人在社交媒体上的表态发现,退出伊斯兰教的塔勒布·A认为德国社会正在大举支持并推进伊斯兰教的发展,并想要迫害像他这样的已经退出的人群。在过去的几年中,他一直尝试向德国有关部门反映他眼中的问题。包括在德国的相关援助组织成员对退出伊斯兰教群体的“迫害”和“骚扰”,他所指的“骚扰”,包括性骚扰。

德国之声从塔勒布·A个人X账号目前的置顶贴文中了解到,他在过去大约5年的时间里一直关注三位脱离伊斯兰教女性在德国的命运,并声称这些女性在德国寄居的住所中多次受到了各种程度的性骚扰。塔勒布·A在自己的社媒账号上公布了多个据称来自当事人的表态,同时也公示了他从2019年以来以声援者的身份与德国警方和司法部门的各种通信往来细节。置顶贴文的发布日期为2024年8月13日,目前无法证实贴文相关内容都是由塔勒布·A本人发布。

案发前和德国之声的联系

塔勒布·A曾与德国之声(DW)有过联系。这位50岁的沙特阿拉伯裔医生于2021年3月通过当时的社交媒体平台推特联系了德国之声。他指控称,沙特阿拉伯政府及居住在德国的沙特人对他进行了监视。他还指责德国当局对他的情况置之不理,不采取任何行动。在2023年10月的一条信息中,他写道:“他们甚至拒绝启动任何调查!理由是不涉及公共利益……让一名沙特难民面对恐吓、监视和迫害,却连一小时的调查都不愿进行,至少警方应该形成一个初步印象。” 然而,德国之声无法独立核实他的许多说法。最终,在2024年11月和12月,他主动提议参加德国之声的节目,并公开提供证据。但在此之后,双方的联系便中断了。

对于德国警方来说,塔勒布·A也完全不是一个陌生的人物。2013年,他因威胁要实施“国际瞩目的行动”而被罗斯托克法院判处罚款90日薪,随后又多次因恐吓行为受到警方关注。

袭击过后,德国马格德堡市民在圣诞市场为死难者点起了蜡烛

曾威胁采取“让人永远记住的行动”

根据梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州内政部长佩格尔(Christian Pegel)的介绍,塔勒布·A在2014年的一次纠纷中,再次威胁要采取“让人永远记住的行动”,并提到可能购买枪支对法院人员实施报复。这些威胁行为促使警方对其住所进行了搜查,但未发现任何明确的袭击计划证据。

据德国电视二台(ZDF)报道,2023年,沙特阿拉伯通过国际刑警向德国发出警告,称塔勒布·A可能构成威胁,并请求引渡。然而,德国方面并未对此做出积极回应。沙特方面表示,该嫌疑人来自该国东部什叶派少数民族聚居地,并长期声称受到歧视。

法新社周一(12月23日)从沙特政府圈获悉,沙特方面确实提出过引渡请求。沙特警告当时称,此人可能“具有危险性”。消息人士表示,沙特方面已经“多次”向德国联邦政府发出关于该男子的警告。

“谷歌医生”

2016年起,塔勒布·A在萨克森-安哈尔特州的一家精神病院工作,负责治疗患有精神疾病的罪犯。然而,他的专业能力屡遭质疑。同事向德广联旗下的媒体透露,他经常依赖互联网搜索进行诊断,被讥讽为“谷歌医生”。

作为一名活动家,塔勒布·A自称是“历史上最激进的伊斯兰批评者”。他在社交媒体上的关注者超过4万。他不仅批评沙特政权,还公开指责德国的移民政策。然而,自2023年以来,他的言论逐渐变得极端,甚至暗示自己将采取激烈行动来追求“正义”。

德国联邦刑警局局长蒙希(Holger Münch)在事件后表示,塔勒布·A的行为模式与典型的恐怖主义不同。他虽然实施了类似恐怖袭击的行动,但动机却难以归类。这种模糊的动机使得执法部门在早期难以有效干预。

德新社在相关报道中指出,沙特方面透露,他们曾多次要求引渡塔勒布·A,并提供了其可能危险的详细信息。然而,德国政府并未采取行动。这一事实在袭击事件发生后,引发了外界对德国应对极端威胁能力的质疑。

联邦内政部长费瑟(Nancy Faeser 中)承诺,将对此案“翻开每一块石头”进行全面调查

未被重视的种种线索

据德国电视二台(ZDF)报道,2023年,联邦移民与难民事务局(BAMF)也收到了关于塔勒布·A的警告信息,并将提供线索的人引导至相关执法部门。然而,这些信息似乎并未得到充分重视。

袭击发生前10天,美国反伊斯兰组织“RAIR”发布了一段长达45分钟的采访,采访中,塔勒布·A指责德国政府“系统性地破坏沙特叛教者的生活”,并称德国警察进行了“秘密行动”。

德新社报道称,2024年5月,塔勒布·A的X账号发了一条推文写道:“我很认真的期待将在今年死去……我将不惜代价实现正义。”12月20日的袭击事件发生后,塔勒布·A的社交媒体账户上出现了疑似与袭击相关的发文。这也增加了他在社交媒体X上的发文是否来自于他本人的疑惑。

袭击发生时,塔勒布·A驾驶车辆高速冲入人群。此后,他被警方当场逮捕,并面临五项谋杀指控和多项未遂谋杀罪名。

德国警方目前正审查沙特提供的信息是否被有效利用。联邦内政部长费瑟(Nancy Faeser)承诺,将对此案“翻开每一块石头”进行全面调查,并检查政府和执法机构是否存在失职行为

(德新社,德广联,德国电视二台)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。



Morrisons Christmas discounts and deliveries cancelled

Getty Images The exterior of a Morrisons on a sunny day, with the logo prominentGetty Images

Morrisons customers have been unable to get discounts on their shopping ahead of Christmas after a problem with the More loyalty card.

The supermarket has been advertising heavy discounts on Christmas dinner food, including vegetables, in the last week.

But social media users say their discounts are not working at the till, with one person posting a photo of an error message at the self-checkout, which reads: "We are really sorry some promotions and discounts are not working at this time."

The Morrisons website also appears to be down, with a "502 bad gateway" error message on some pages.

Morrisons has been contacted for comment.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.

King's Christmas message to come from former hospital chapel

PA Media King Charles smiling at an event in the run-up to Christmas 2024, with a lit Christmas tree in the background. PA Media
The King will be giving his speech from a former chapel in central London

This year's Christmas message from King Charles will be delivered from a former hospital chapel, in a year in which the King has been undergoing cancer treatment.

The location for the traditional Christmas Day broadcast is the Fitzrovia Chapel in central London, which once served as the chapel of the Middlesex Hospital.

It's the first time in more than a decade that the Christmas speech has been recorded from a place that isn't in a royal palace or estate - and it's understood that the King wanted a location with a healthcare connection.

The ornately-decorated 19th Century former chapel building is now used for exhibitions and community events for people of any faiths and none.

Getty Images Ornately decorated Fitzrovia Chapel in central LondonGetty Images
The Fitzrovia Chapel once served hospital staff and patients

As well as a link to the health services, the building also ties in with the King's interest in trying to build bridges between different beliefs, backgrounds and religions.

The traditional speech from the monarch, recorded earlier this month, will be broadcast as usual on television and radio at 15:00 on Christmas Day.

The Christmas message comes at the end of a year in which the King faced a cancer diagnosis.

His regular sessions of treatment are continuing, as they have for much of this year, but as a sign of a positive response, he has plans for a busy schedule of engagements and overseas trips in 2025.

Setting the speech in this former hospital chapel, which was renovated and reopened in 2016, will be a reminder of those working in the health services and medical research.

The small chapel, decorated in the Gothic Revival style with shimmering mosaics and Byzantine influences, is tucked away in Pearson Square, in a quiet corner of London's West End.

It was built in the courtyard of what was the Middlesex Hospital, serving its staff and patients. When the hospital was demolished the chapel was retained and restored, with a new development built around it.

It's no longer regularly used for services, but is used for community events and concerts and is open to visitors wanting some quiet contemplation.

The run-up to Christmas has seen the King attending a series of seasonal events, including a Christmas market in Battersea, a service remembering those persecuted because of their religion and an event in Walthamstow celebrating the diversity of the local community.

The King's speech on Christmas Day follows a tradition dating back to 1932, when George V made the first Christmas broadcast.

Rare Tibetan protests ended in beatings and arrests, BBC finds

Getty Images Treated image:  An aerial photo of the Wudongde Hydropower Station, in red, superimposed on a treated image of winding Jinsha river.Getty Images
Beijing's plan to build another dam on the Jinsha river, which runs through Tibetan territories, led to protests

Hundreds of Tibetans protesting against a Chinese dam were rounded up in a harsh crackdown earlier this year, with some beaten and seriously injured, the BBC has learnt from sources and verified footage.

Such protests are extremely rare in Tibet, which China has tightly controlled since it annexed the region in the 1950s. That they still happened highlights China's controversial push to build dams in what has long been a sensitive area.

Claims of the arrests and beatings began trickling out shortly after the events in February. In the following days authorities further tightened restrictions, making it difficult for anyone to verify the story, especially journalists who cannot freely travel to Tibet.

But the BBC has spent months tracking down Tibetan sources whose family and friends were detained and beaten. BBC Verify has also examined satellite imagery and verified leaked videos which show mass protests and monks begging the authorities for mercy.

The sources live outside of China and are not associated with activist groups. But they did not wish to be named for safety reasons.

In response to our queries, the Chinese embassy in the UK did not confirm nor deny the protests or the ensuing crackdown.

But it said: "China is a country governed by the rule of law, and strictly safeguards citizens' rights to lawfully express their concerns and provide opinions or suggestions."

BBC graphic showing location of Gangtuo dam project and affected villages and monasteries
The events took place in the southwestern province of Sichuan

The protests, followed by the crackdown, took place in a territory home to Tibetans in Sichuan province. For years, Chinese authorities have been planning to build the massive Gangtuo dam and hydropower plant, also known as Kamtok in Tibetan, in the valley straddling the Dege (Derge) and Jiangda (Jomda) counties.

Once built, the dam's reservoir would submerge an area that is culturally and religiously significant to Tibetans, and home to several villages and ancient monasteries containing sacred relics.

One of them, the 700-year-old Wangdui (Wontoe) Monastery, has particular historical value as its walls feature rare Buddhist murals.

The Gangtuo dam would also displace thousands of Tibetans. The BBC has seen what appears to be a public tender document for the relocation of 4,287 residents to make way for the dam.

The BBC contacted an official listed on the tender document as well as Huadian, the state-owned enterprise reportedly building the dam. Neither have responded.

Plans to build the dam were first approved in 2012, according to a United Nations special rapporteurs letter to the Chinese government. The letter, which is from July 2024, raised concerns about the dam's "irreversible impact" on thousands of people and the environment.

From the start, residents were not "consulted in a meaningful way" about the dam, according to the letter. For instance, they were given information that was inadequate and not in the Tibetan language.

They were also promised by the government that the project would only go ahead if 80% of them agreed to it, but "there is no evidence this consent was ever given," the letter goes on to say, adding that residents tried to raise concerns about the dam several times.

Then, in February, officials told them they would be evicted imminently, while giving them little information about resettlement options and compensation, the BBC understands from two Tibetan sources.

This triggered such deep anxiety that villagers and Buddhist monks decided to stage protests, despite knowing the risks of a crackdown.

'They didn't know what was going to happen to them'

The largest one saw hundreds gathering outside a government building in Dege. In a video clip obtained and verified by the BBC, protesters can be heard calling on authorities to stop the evictions and let them stay.

Watch: Hundreds of Tibetan protesters call for end to evictions

Separately, a group of residents approached visiting officials and pleaded with them to cancel plans to build the dam. The BBC has obtained footage which appears to show this incident, and verified it took place in the village of Xiba.

The clip shows red-robed monks and villagers kneeling on a dusty road and showing a thumbs-up, a traditional Tibetan way of begging for mercy.

Watch: Residents in Xiba kneel and plead with officials to stop the dam

In the past the Chinese government has been quick to stamp out resistance to authority, especially in Tibetan territory where it is sensitive to anything that could potentially feed separatist sentiment.

It was no different this time. Authorities swiftly launched their crackdown, arresting hundreds of people at protests while also raiding homes across the valley, according to one of our sources.

One unverified but widely shared clip appears to show Chinese policemen shoving a group of monks on a road, in what is thought to be an arrest operation.

Many were detained for weeks and some were beaten badly, according to our Tibetan sources whose family and friends were targeted in the crackdown.

One source shared fresh details of the interrogations. He told the BBC that a childhood friend was detained and interrogated over several days.

"He was asked questions and treated nicely at first. They asked him 'who asked you to participate, who is behind this'.

"Then, when he couldn't give them [the] answers they wanted, he was beaten by six or seven different security personnel over several days."

His friend sustained only minor injuries, and was freed within a few days. But others were not so lucky.

Another source told the BBC that more than 20 of his relatives and friends were detained for participating in the protests, including an elderly person who was more than 70 years old.

"Some of them sustained injuries all over their body, including in their ribs and kidneys, from being kicked and beaten… some of them were sick because of their injuries," he said.

Similar claims of physical abuse and beatings during the arrests have surfaced in overseas Tibetan media reports.

The UN letter also notes reports of detentions and use of force on hundreds of protesters, stating they were "severely beaten by the Chinese police, resulting in injuries that required hospitalisation".

Tsering Woeser A photo showing seated red-robed monks praying inside the Wontoe Monastery in Dege county. Tsering Woeser
The dam's reservoir would submerge the 700-year-old Wontoe Monastery...
Tsering Woeser An ancient, fading mural inside the Wontoe Monastery shows Buddha seated, with other images surrounding him - the mural is painted in red, blue, green, yellow and white.   Tsering Woeser
And its ancient, sacred murals

After the crackdown, Tibetans in the area encountered even tighter restrictions, the BBC understands. Communication with the outside world was further limited and there was increased surveillance. Those who are still contactable have been unwilling to talk as they fear another crackdown, according to sources.

The first source said while some released protesters were eventually allowed to travel elsewhere in Tibetan territory, others have been slapped with orders restricting their movement.

This has caused problems for those who need to go to hospital for medical treatment and nomadic tribespeople who need to roam across pastures with their herds, he said.

The second source said he last heard from his relatives and friends at the end of February: "When I got through, they said not to call any more as they would get arrested. They were very scared, they would hang up on me.

"We used to talk over WeChat, but now that is not possible. I'm totally blocked from contacting all of them," he said.

"The last person I spoke to was a younger female cousin. She said, 'It's very dangerous, a lot of us have been arrested, there's a lot of trouble, they have hit a lot of us'… They didn't know what was going to happen to them next."

The BBC has been unable to find any mention of the protests and crackdown in Chinese state media. But shortly after the protests, a Chinese Communist Party official visited the area to "explain the necessity" of building the dam and called for "stability maintenance measures", according to one report.

A few months later, a tender was awarded for the construction of a Dege "public security post", according to documents posted online.

The BBC has been monitoring the valley via satellite imagery for months. For now, there is no sign of the dam's construction nor demolition of the villages and monasteries.

The Chinese embassy told us authorities were still conducting geological surveys and specialised studies to build the dam. They added the local government is "actively and thoroughly understanding the demands and aspirations" of residents.

Development or exploitation?

China is no stranger to controversy when it comes to dams.

When the government constructed the world's biggest dam in the 90s - the Three Gorges on the Yangtze River - it saw protests and criticism over its handling of relocation and compensation for thousands of villagers.

In more recent years, as China has accelerated its pivot from coal to clean energy sources, such moves have become especially sensitive in Tibetan territories.

Beijing has been eyeing the steep valleys and mighty rivers here, in the rural west, to build mega-dams and hydropower stations that can sustain China's electricity-hungry eastern metropolises. President Xi Jinping has personally pushed for this, a policy called "xidiandongsong", or "sending western electricity eastwards".

Getty Images An aerial photo shows Wudongde Hydropower Station on the Jinsha river, the world's seventh largest hydropower station, on the channel of the Jinsha river in Liangshan prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, December 31, 2022. Getty Images
China has been building several dams on the Jinsha river, including the Wudongde Hydropower Station

Like Gangtuo, many of these dams are on the Jinsha (Dri Chu) river, which runs through Tibetan territories. It forms the upper reaches of the Yangtze river and is part of what China calls the world's largest clean energy corridor.

Gangtuo is in fact the latest in a series of 13 dams planned for this valley, five of which are already in operation or under construction.

The Chinese government and state media have presented these dams as a win-win solution that cuts pollution and generates clean energy, while uplifting rural Tibetans.

In its statement to the BBC, the Chinese embassy said clean energy projects focus on "promoting high-quality economic development" and "enhancing the sense of gain and happiness among people of all ethnic groups".

But the Chinese government has long been accused of violating Tibetans' rights. Activists say the dams are the latest example of Beijing's exploitation of Tibetans and their land.

"What we are seeing is the accelerated destruction of Tibetan religious, cultural and linguistic heritage," said Tenzin Choekyi, a researcher with rights group Tibet Watch. "This is the 'high-quality development' and 'ecological civilisation' that the Chinese government is implementing in Tibet."

One key issue is China's relocation policy that evicts Tibetans from their homes to make way for development - the same fate awaits the villagers and monks living near the Gangtuo dam. More than 930,000 rural Tibetans are estimated to have been relocated since 2000, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW).

Beijing has always maintained that these relocations happen only with the consent of Tibetans, and that they are given housing, compensation and new job opportunities. State media often portrays it as an improvement in their living conditions.

Getty Images A spectacular bend in the Jinsha river as it winds all the way around mountain, is seen in an aerial photo of Garze city, Sichuan Province.Getty Images
A spectacular bend in the Jinsha river: the rivers in China's west are being harnessed to power its eastern metropolises

But rights groups paint a different picture, with reports detailing evidence of coercion, complaints of inadequate compensation, cramped living conditions, and lack of jobs. They also point out that relocation severs the deep, centuries-old connection that rural Tibetans share with their land.

"These people will essentially lose everything they own, their livelihoods and community heritage," said Maya Wang, interim China director at HRW.

There are also environmental concerns over the flooding of Tibetan valleys renowned for their biodiversity, and the possible dangers of building dams in a region rife with earthquake fault lines.

Some Chinese academics have found the pressure from accumulated water in dam reservoirs could potentially increase the risk of quakes, including in the Jinsha river. This could cause catastrophic flooding and destruction, as seen in 2018, when rain-induced landslides occurred at a village situated between two dam construction sites on Jinsha.

The Chinese embassy told us that the implementation of any clean energy project "will go through scientific planning and rigorous demonstration, and will be subject to relevant supervision".

In recent years, China has passed laws safeguarding the environment surrounding the Yangtze River and the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. President Xi has personally stressed the need to protect the Yangtze's upper reaches.

About 424 million yuan (£45.5m, $60m) has been spent on environmental conservation along Jinsha, according to state media. Reports have also highlighted efforts to quake-proof dam projects.

Multiple Tibetan rights groups, however, argue that any large-scale development in Tibetan territory, including dams such as Gangtuo, should be halted.

They have staged protests overseas and called for an international moratorium, arguing that companies participating in such projects would be "allowing the Chinese government to profit from the occupation and oppression of Tibetans".

"I really hope that this [dam-building] stops," one of our sources said. "Our ancestors were here, our temples are here. We have been here for generations. It is very painful to move. What kind of life would we have if we leave?"

Additional reporting by Richard Irvine-Brown of BBC Verify

Tennis stars Boulter and De Minaur announce engagement

Boulter and De Minaur announce engagement

Katie Boulter and Alex de MinaurImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Katie Boulter and Alex de Minaur began dating in March 2020

  • Published

British number one Katie Boulter has announced her engagement to Australian world number nine Alex de Minaur.

The couple, who met on the tennis circuit, have been dating for almost five years.

Announcing the news on Instagram, external with a photo of the ring, world number 24 Boulter wrote: "We've been keeping a small secret."

Great Britain face Australia in the United Cup, external in Sydney on 1 January, with Boulter, 28, and 25-year-old De Minaur named in their respective teams.

With two singles matches and a mixed doubles tie in every fixture, Boulter and De Minaur could play against each other if selected for the doubles.

"I wouldn't say I was thrilled at the idea of playing him all over again," Boulter said before news of the engagement.

"He's a top-10 player and he knows how to play tennis, so there's one side of it.

"Then there's the personal side of it, which is difficult but also great for bragging rights."

Playing together, Boulter and De Minaur reached the second round of the mixed doubles at Wimbledon last year.

Related topics

The crocodile from Crocodile Dundee dies in Australia

Shutterstock Paul Hogan with fake crocodile on set of Crocodile Dundee. One use only, image payable per use.Shutterstock
For safety reasons, a fake version of Burt (pictured with Hogan) was used for some of the promotional photographs

The crocodile who starred in 1980s hit film Crocodile Dundee has died in Australia.

Burt, who was thought to be over 90 years old, appeared alongside Paul Hogan and Linda Kozlowski in the 1986 movie.

News of his death was confirmed by staff at Crocosaurus Cove in Darwin, a reptile and aquarium attraction where Burt had lived since 2008.

In a statement posted on Instagram, the wildlife centre wrote: "It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of Burt, the iconic saltwater crocodile and star of the Australian classic Crocodile Dundee.

"Burt passed away peacefully over the weekend, estimated to be over 90 years old, marking the end of an incredible era."

Shutterstock Paul Hogan with Burt on set. One use only, image payable per useShutterstock
Burt, pictured with Hogan on set, had lived at Crocosaurus Cove in Darwin since 2008
Getty Images Paul Hogan in the foreground wearing a hat, denim shirt and tan-coloured waistcoat. Linda Kozlowski is in the background, wearing a white vest and black shorts.Getty Images
Crocodile Dundee was a box office hit in 1986

In the film, character Mick Dundee (Hogan) swaps the Australian outback for the jungle of New York after meeting American reporter Sue Charlton (Kozlowski), who eventually falls in love with him.

The croc is famously seen in the scene where Kozlowski's character is attacked as she kneels next to a creek.

Burt, who was captured in the 1980s in the Northern Territory's Reynolds River, was described by Crocasourus Cove as having a "bold" personality.

"Burt was a confirmed bachelor - an attitude he made clear during his earlier years at a crocodile farm," the centre's statement continued.

"His fiery temperament earned him the respect of his caretakers and visitors alike, as he embodied the raw and untamed spirit of the saltwater crocodile."

"Burt was truly one of a kind. He wasn't just a crocodile; he was a force of nature and a reminder of the power and majesty of these incredible creatures.

Getty Images Paul Hogan with fake dead crocodile while filming crocodile Dundee. He is wearing a hat and waistcoat.Getty Images

"While his personality could be challenging, it was also what made him so memorable and beloved by those who worked with him and the thousands who visited him over the years.

The statement concluded: "Visitors from around the globe marvelled at his impressive size and commanding presence, especially at feeding time."

It's not unusual for saltwater crocodiles to live beyond 70 years old, especially in captivity.

Burt will be honoured with a commemorative sign at the attraction.

Crocodile Dundee remains the highest grossing Australian film of all time, taking $47,707,598 (Australian dollars).

It also spawned two sequels, 1988's Crocodile Dundee II and 2001's Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles.

Hogan and Kozlowski got married in 1990 but later divorced.

A documentary on the making of the film is expected to be released next year.

MoJ staff accused of accessing Nottingham attacks case files

BBC Composite photo of Nottingham attacks victims Ian Coates, Barnaby Webber and Grace O'Malley-KumarBBC
Ian Coates, Barnaby Webber and Grace O'Malley-Kumar were stabbed to death by Valdo Calocane

An investigation has opened into allegations Ministry of Justice (MoJ) staff illegally accessed computer files related to the Nottingham attacks.

Students Barnaby Webber and Grace O'Malley Kumar were fatally stabbed by Valdo Calocane in the city in June 2023 along with school caretaker Ian Coates.

Calocane, who had been diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia, received a hospital order in January after admitting manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

Now the South East Regional Organised Crime Unit is examining whether case files were accessed illegally by government employees.

In a statement, the unit said it was "currently investigating allegations under the Computer Misuse Act in relation to members of staff from His Majesty's Courts and Tribunals Service and His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service".

It said: "This is in relation to individuals accessing case files for the investigation into the deaths of Ian Coates, Barnaby Webber and Grace O'Malley-Kumar, who were killed in an attack in Nottingham in June 2023.

"No arrests have been made at this time as part of this investigation."

PA Media Emma Webber speaking outside in court alongside other family members of those killed in the Nottingham attacksPA Media
Emma Webber (right) and other victims' family members have been highly critical about how the case has been handled

The unit said the probe was "completely independent from any previous investigations in relation to the original incident, to ensure the families of the deceased and injured can have full trust and confidence in the process".

Barnaby's mother Emma Webber said her family had received a letter notifying of them of the investigation.

She said: "So many individuals and organisations failed Barney, Grace and Ian. It's an utter disgrace.

"Leicester and Nottingham police forces, the NHS, the CPS and now the wider courts and prison and probation service. When will it ever stop?"

In February a special constable with Nottinghamshire Police was sacked for viewing bodycam footage showing the aftermath of the attacks.

Follow BBC Nottingham on Facebook, on X, or on Instagram. Send your story ideas to eastmidsnews@bbc.co.uk or via WhatsApp on 0808 100 2210.

【404文库】二湘的十一维空间|朱令去世一周年,清华学子控诉清华在朱令案中的冷血和无耻

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今天是朱令去世一周年,一年前,朱令在白天最短,黑夜最长的冬至那天去世。昨天,看到清华学子张黎利的这篇文章《清华大学在朱令案中的冷血与无耻,我如何成了救助朱令的长期志愿者》,张黎利是清华大学92级计算机系的学生,和朱令是同一年进入清华的,他和孙维是初中同学,还认识帮助过朱令的贝志诚,而孙某那个时候的男朋友,清华计算机系的谢某某,和他同系,宿舍也只隔着几个房间。

2013年,他第一次从天涯知道朱令的事情,对朱令非常同情,之后发起并建立了一个专门帮助朱令和朱令家人的基金会,叫华霖救助基金,这么多年,一直在默默地帮助朱令和朱令家人。他还是公号“朱令我们在一起“的唯一的管理员,这么多年,持续为朱令的事情发声。

他最近的这篇文章可以解读为对清华的控诉书,历数清华在处理朱令事件中种种恶劣的行径,一共四个观点,全文看下来,可以说清华在对待朱令的事情上,是相当冷血和无耻,令人非常愤慨!

CDT 档案卡
标题:朱令去世一周年,清华学子控诉清华在朱令案中的冷血和无耻
作者: 空间作者
发表日期:2024.12.23
来源:微信公众号“二湘的十一维空间”
主题归类:朱令案
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

他的第一个观点:朱令的病没有及时治疗,清华负有部分责任。

1995年3月9日朱令第二次住院,神经内科主任李舜伟接诊,李舜伟怀疑为铊中毒,并与相关专家联系。但清华提供的化学品清单排除了朱令接触铊的可能性,导致医生误判,使朱令错失了及时确诊和治疗的机会,病情最终不可逆转。

当然,这里也不得不说这个医生也有责任,既然高度怀疑,为什么不做排查,就那么相信清华的话?

清华当年出书面证明清华本科生不可能接触到铊盐是为了逃避责任,还是出证明的人做事情马虎,我们现在不得而知,但这份证明延误了朱令的诊断和治疗,让朱令之后的三十年成为一个重度残疾人,却是不争的事实。

另外,投毒案是在清华宿舍里发生的,也是因为当年清华对铊盐管理不妥,让那个歹毒的人能够轻易把铊盐带出实验室,给朱令多次投毒才造成朱令悲惨的境遇,所以清华对造成朱令的悲剧,负有相当大的责任。

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张黎利的第二个观点:清华大学对证据丢失、导致案件无法侦破,负有重大责任。

1995年4月28日,朱令被确诊为铊中毒,怀疑有人投毒。朱令父母向清华报警,清华保卫科却通知朱令宿舍的人,结果造成了4月29日宿舍失窃,重要证物丢失。1998年,警方要求检查封存物品时再次发现部分证据遗失。这两次失窃直接导致案件关键物证消失,使案件无法侦破。而事后清华化学系只是赔偿了朱令家3,000元了事。因为清华管理不善,造成了朱令案件最重要的物证丢失,清华的行为令人愤慨。

张的第三个观点:清华在朱令治疗和救助过程中表现得非常冷漠。

朱令作为清华学生,最初是享受公费医疗的待遇的,治疗费用由清华承担。但是在朱令住院一年后(1996年),清华就停止支付医疗费用,并反复催促朱令父母办理退学手续。

办理退学意味着朱令将失去公费医疗,这给朱令父母带来了巨大的精神和经济压力。尽管他们多次写信请求保留学籍,清华都不理不睬,直到1997年4月,在朱令班级毕业前夕,清华才安排与家属见面,但校方态度非常冷漠,明确表示无法保留学籍,断绝了朱令的医疗保障来源。 1997年11月,北京相关部门要求清华提供40万救助款,但清华仅同意支付20万元,另外的20万是由北京市青少年发展基金会承担的。清华还要求签订一次性补助协议,还强调这是“特殊照顾”,与司法程序无关,目的就是把自己撇清。

张同学这段陈述是和朱令的律师张捷的说法是一致的。张捷也提到清华当年为了不承担朱令的医疗费,以休学不能超过两年为由勒令退学。在朱令妈妈强烈反对下,清华给出一个条件就是一次性买断出20万,如果要追究责任就不给。朱家人当年一直财务很困难,只能无奈接受。

做出了这么多不堪的事情,居然还对朱令一家如此刻薄,勒令退学,且一直没有给朱令发毕业证。因为朱令没有大学毕业证,身份一直是工人,又拿不了低保,医保的问题也解决不了。最后是张捷把朱令作为他公司的一个员工,每个月发几千块的工资才得以保障朱令的医保。

张黎利说,清华的做法相当于把在校内被投毒受害人推出了学校,让这个受害人自生自灭,他深深感到了清华的冷血与无情,而受害人的悲剧很大程度是由于清华自身管理不善才导致的。最后还是在上级部门要求下,讨价还价赔了40万的一半。对清华当年的做法真是瞠目结舌,且无比愤慨,天理何在,良心何在?这特么到底是哪个没人性的领导做出的决定,真的很想骂人!

20万买断后,从1998年至2012年的15年间,清华校方与朱令家人没有任何联系,从未打过电话,写过信,彻底对朱令事件不闻不问。直到2013年,朱令事件成为社会热点后,校方在外界推动下,与朱令家人进行了几次接触。2013年9月,清华校长陈某某带着两位管理人员和一位校友探视朱令和家人。那位清华校友当场给了朱令父亲10万现金。这是清华校方唯一一次主动尝试与朱令家人和解。然而,这个行动因为一篇微博文章的公开曝光,引发了校方对潜在舆论风险的担忧,停止了所有后续联系,内部领导更是表态“从今以后清华死猪不怕开水烫”,明确拒绝再与朱令家人进行接触。

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张黎利的第四个观点:清华校方一直在回避责任。

1995年,北京电视台记者采访时,清华拒绝回答是否有铊。中国青年报记者采访时,化学系副主任薛某某声称朱令的实验中绝不可能接触含铊物质,清华本科生不可能接触到铊。但北京市公安局后来查获清华购买铊盐的发票和介绍信,1996年清华校方承认工物系购买过铊。张黎利通过SCI科学索引的数据库,发现1996年,清华大学在荷兰学术期刊《分析化学学报》上发表了一篇涉及铊盐的论文,其第一作者和第三作者分别为清华的童某某和李某某两位教授。根据化学实验研究及论文发表的一般周期推算,该论文的相关实验工作正好发生在1994-1995年间,即朱令中毒期间。而那个时候孙维正在童某某和李某某所在实验室做研究,是唯一能合法接触铊的本科生。

但在1997年,清华总务处和副书记先后表态:学校化学药品管理很好,按规定管理毒品,及时报案,无任何责任。校方始终拒绝承认实验室管理存在问题。

迄今为止,清华从来没有承认过在朱令事件上有任何责任。

去年朱令去世,清华官方发文称朱令为“我校1992级校友”,可知你们对待你们口中的校友当年是何等冷漠残酷?而且这个所谓的校友到现在你们都没有颁发毕业证!清华,你欠朱令一个道歉和一份毕业证!

当然,我也很清楚,我这里一直统称清华,但真正做出这些决定的是当年清华的领导,而不是现任清华的领导。当年具体做出这些没人性没底线的决定的人到底是谁?根据张黎利的文章,朱令父母从1997年开始就写信给当时的清华大学校长,恳请校方先行支付朱令的治疗费用,但是校长秘书拒绝签字接收。当时清华的校长是王大中(1994 到2003任清华校长)。朱令父母只好在97年9月3号以挂号信的方式把这封信寄给了当时的清华党委书记,寄出以后也一直没有回音,直到一年以后才有回音,而之所以有回音并不是他们良心发现,而是因为相关部门要求清华提供安抚款。这个时候根据网上搜到的信息清华的党委书记是贺美英(1995年9月 – 2002年2月),但张黎利的文章里提到当时出面和朱令父母见面的书记的名字是张再兴,我查了一下,张再兴是当时的党委副书记。

我们也要分清楚,清华官方的态度和清华学子的态度是不同的。我认识的许多清华学子也为清华在朱令事情上的处理深以为耻,这位张黎利同学更是本着清华学生一向做事严谨的风格,彻查了当年清华在朱令出事后所作的行动。张黎利的文章还提到他一年多的调查访谈中一些令他震惊的发现:第一,清华校园过去二十年来发生的学生非正常死亡事件不少,但从未听说清华承认过自身的管理责任,反倒看到了清华状告死亡学生家长闹事的新闻。用张黎利的原话就是:“清华园里面游荡着不止一个冤魂”。

第二,清华绝大多数学生,对这些非正常死亡事件知之甚少。他的很多同学和他一样,在毕业十多年后才从媒体上得知了当年发生在身边的朱令惨案。而他调查中采访的清华在校生和近几年的毕业生中,大多数没听说过朱令事件,也不知道其他的学生命案。我想,这种对命案的轻描淡写,生怕担责任的态度,正是这类事件不断发生的根源之一。

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如果张黎利的文章所述都属实,那么清华的确做得太过分了!清华就是这样对待他们的莘莘学子吗?将来那些优秀的学子报考清华的时候是不是要考虑一下?清华现在的领导也应该为当年的管理者做出的恶心事负责,或者说弥补当年的过错,希望他们在朱令父母有生之年,勇敢地站出来给朱令一个迟来的道歉,给朱令补发毕业证,如果可能,也尽可能在经济上补偿朱令的父亲母亲,以告慰朱令在天之灵。

逃避责任,掩盖错误不是解决问题的办法,只会让声誉越来越糟。勇敢承认错误并改正才配得上中国顶尖大学的声誉,才能让清华的校训“自强不息,厚德载物”不再是一句空洞的口号。知耻而后勇,知错而弥补,虽然很艰难,虽然需要勇气,但这是唯一正确的做法。唯如此,才能告慰朱令在天之灵,才能让所有清华学子不再寒心,才能平息所有关心朱令的人的不平和愤怒,才能不辜负清华两个字。

一座独立屋|北京上海,消费撑不住了?

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根据官方统计数据,京沪两地在11月双双遇到消费的大幅下降:北京11月社会品消费零售总额同比下降14.1%、上海同比下降13.5%,同期全国同比增长3%。

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上海2024年11月消费数据(来源:上海市统计局)↑

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北京2024年11月消费数据(来源:北京市统计局)↑

除京沪外,广州11月的社零也同比下降了1.6%,而截至本文发布时,深圳的数据还没有出来。

过去有个说法表示经济下行压力不会影响京沪,因为京沪会吸走全国资源,所以“京沪永远涨”,现在又应该怎样解释?

北京和上海作为中国一线中的一线城市,两地现在的消费状态会不会成为一个全国前瞻指标,或者说有他们背后特殊的因素呢?

京沪消费下降的背后,我认为至少有几点重要原因:资产缩水、就业波动、消费结构差异和更高的居民杠杆率这几点重要原因。

CDT 档案卡
标题:北京上海,消费撑不住了?
作者:房东的ID
发表日期:2024.12.23
来源:微信公众号“一座独立屋”
主题归类:中国经济
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

(1)资产缩水影响巨大

最近被广泛讨论的消费降级,不仅仅是收入变化影响这么简单,相比于收入的变化,资产价格波动带来的财富观对一个人的消费影响来得更大。

我们以北京和上海为例,一套京沪非常普通的住房市值随随便便超过500万,而其他二三线城市可能只有100万,而在过去几年我们很清楚地看到,无论是北京上海这样的一线城市,还是其他二三线城市,都经历了房价的大幅下跌,京沪的跌幅并没有更小。如果各个城市的跌幅都一样,比方说下跌30%,京沪平均总价房产(500万)缩水的绝对值是150万,其他城市平均总结房产(100万市值)缩水的绝对值只有30万,这样的资产缩水对消费心理是有巨大冲击的。

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还需要强调有一个残酷的现实,那就是虽然很多新北京人或新上海人常常自称自己多么励志、多么努力,但其实他们绝大多数人在京沪这样的城市也根本没靠工作**赚到多少钱,只不过当年咬牙买房之后价格涨上去了,最后把时代的红利当成自己的本事,这显然是一种错觉。**

但不可否认的是确实有很多人的满足感和消费潜力是基于之前的房价上涨,曾经国内房地产如火如荼时,就算是出国旅行,很多国人得知当地房价很低之后自己心里都会暗爽一把,现在房价下跌了、也卖不掉了,所以消费也开始减少预算了。

(2)就业波动影响更大

以北京和上海为代表的热点城市汇聚了大量高收入职业,在经济周期向上的时候,这些行业蒸蒸日上,帮助所在城市吸引了全国无数人才;而当这些行业开始衰退的时候,自然就会降薪裁员。

这种情况导致京沪外来人口的流出和消费力的下降,我们可以很明显地感觉到过去这些年,那些造富能力非常强的行业如房地产、金融、教培、互联网,一个接着一个由于客观市场规律或遭遇铁拳使得大量从业者遭遇财务困境。甚至于很多从业者当下的困境恰恰就来自于曾经的成功,例如一个教培或房地产行业的优秀从业者,在2020-2021年用自己在事业上成功所赚到的钱作为首付三倍杠杆买了一套房子,那么现在无论如何都很难支撑,而其他人因为连首付都没有,所以连踩坑的资格都没有拿到,反而成了一件好事。

另外,除非是家境富裕的土著,一线城市的生活是躺不平的,对于大多数年轻人来说,一线城市要么卷、要么走…因为这里的成本比其他城市高不少,如果没有更好的就业机会,他们没有理由继续付出高昂成本留在这样一个地方,而人口一旦流失,消费自然也会下降。

(3)消费结构差异

我们看2024年11月全国的消费数据,可以得到一个非常明显的特征,那就是可选消费大幅下降,其中下跌幅度最大的是化妆品类,同比2023年11月的降幅达到26.4%,而其他一些关乎生活基本需要的必选消费表现相对稳定。值得一提的是,家用电器因为国家以旧换新补贴推动,使得这一项目的同比增长达到22%,这证明补贴消费的效果是立竿见影的,未来这样的补贴应该会越来越多,值得期待。

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过去一线城市的消费升级是走在全国领先位置的,因此一线城市居民的可选消费比例是远远高于其他地区的,这也导致一线城市居民消费下降的空间比其他地区更大…

所以不是其他地方的老百姓不想省钱,而是其他地方的消费者几乎没有经历太多实质性消费升级,现在的消费基本都是吃饱穿暖,实在很难再去省了。

(4)居民杠杆率更高

一线城市的房价收入比,远远要大于其他城市,也就是说即使一线城市的收入更高,但高出的幅度远远不如房价高出的幅度大,这就是杠杆的效果。这也导致相同年龄段、相同行业的人群,在一线城市的(买了房的)人财务压力普遍远远大于其他城市的人…也是由于财务压力原因,一线城市的结婚率、生育率也远远低于其他城市,而在小城市,由于现代金融观念落后、房屋总价相对较低,一般人买房不会把杠杆用到极致,在北京和上海这样的高房价城市,买套很普通的房子就可能需要贷款几百万,居民杠杆压力是非常大的。

我们从数据看,一旦居民杠杆率超过某个临界值后,居民杠杆率越高,消费增速就越慢,两个数据有非常明显的负相关。

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中国居民部门杠杆率 vs 中国社会消费品零售总额增速↑

看过往数据,2020年以来中国居民杠杆率高位盘整,但消费增速还在持续放缓,这说明在现有的可支配收入占比和社会福利保障背景下,60%出头的居民杠杆率应该就是老乡们的极限了,因为居民已经极为努力地顶住压力让杠杆率维持高位而不是掉头向下,但代价是消费的低迷,居民这几年已经开始牺牲消费来扛鼎了,中国人民确实是全世界最吃苦耐劳的群体。

事实和数据证明,在经济下行期,并没有什么地方是绝对安全的堡垒,“京沪永远涨”可能只是一些人的自我安慰,就好像刚需不怕跌一样,这类洗脑式的论断没有参考价值,只有情绪价值。

另外,消费下降说明居民的财务压力已经开始影响到实际生活体验了,所以忘掉房价吧,房价真的已经是一个没什么营养的话题了…因为当你发现困难来的时候,砖头并不能当饭吃,我们普通人下一步最应该关注的是未来一年自己或家庭的工作和收入情况,毫不夸张地说,现在只要是能按时按量发工资的公司那都是好公司。

而在京沪之后,其他热点城市和更多二三线城市是否会出现京沪类似的消费下滑情况,还有待进一步的观察。但消费的疲弱,不只是短期出现的问题,而是长期的结构性短板,因为我们一直以来都重视投资重视生产,但却忽视消费的重要性,甚至有人觉得消费就是吃喝玩乐就是不利于奋斗,这个理解是完全错误的。对于通缩的压力和消费的价值,我这里分享一下之前在我的付费星球发的一个帖子,主要目的是摆事实讲道理的帮助读者克服通胀焦虑,保护好自己的钱袋子。

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总之,消费是经济可持续增长的核心动能,如果没有足够的有效需求,那么生产也将变成失去意义的无效内卷;而且消费的下降一旦成势,就很容易带出一个恶性循环:消费下降导致生产商亏损或减产 – 然后产业链上下游降薪或裁员 – 再然后被降薪或被裁的人因为收入减少于是进一步缩减消费…

另外,2025年就要到来,在川普上任的前景下,我们几乎可以肯定国际间的贸易保护主义会重新抬头、新的贸易摩擦会再次到来,外需将变得不再稳定,这时培育好自己的内需市场就更加重要了,只有自己足够强大稳定,才能以不变应万变。

扩大内需,特别是在居民消费上给予更大的力度的补助已经刻不容缓了。

格隆汇图解天下|京沪消费全面走弱,消费怎么办?

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2024年11月,中国社会消费品零售总额同比仅增长3%,这一增速较10月份的数值4.8%,大幅下降了37.5%,也比市场的预期数值5.3%低了2.3个百分点。对比历史同期数值,3%的增速也处于历史低位,低于过往5同期均值水平4.22%。

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再看一线城市呢?更加触目惊心。11月,北京社零消费零售总额同比-14.1%,创2022年12月以来近2年新低;上海社会消费品零售总额同比-13.5%,创2022年5月以来30个月新低。

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价格是供需均衡后的结果,消费需求不足,价格全线走低。

CDT 档案卡
标题:京沪消费全面走弱,消费怎么办?
作者:格隆汇图解天下
发表日期:2024.12.23
来源:微信公众号“格隆汇图解天下”
主题归类:中国经济
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

2024年第三季度,综合衡量全社会物价水平的经济指标—GDP平减指数,当季同比录得-0.53%。从2023年6月开始,已经连续6个季度为负,这一轮持续时间为近20年来最长。再下跌一个季度,我们就将创下 1990 年代亚洲金融危机的惨淡记录。

具体到CPI和PPI是什么情况呢?

11月份,CPI同比从10月的0.3%再度回落至0.2%,已连续57个月运行在收缩通道内。PPI同比为-2.5%,自2022年10月起由正转负,截至2024年11月,已连续26个月处于负增长区间。

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GDP平减指数连续为负,表明我们的经济陷入通缩风险,消费对经济贡献的乏力也开始显现。

2021-2023年,消费对GDP贡献均值为60.4%,2024年前三季度则大幅下降至50%,单三季度,消费对GDP的贡献仅29%。

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怎么办呢?每当经济需求不足的时候,需要借助外力来吧经济拽出泥潭。我们复盘了此前三轮物价通缩周期的过程,基本是如下路径:

第一,拉外需,外需回暖在此前几轮物价回升过程中发挥着显著的作用;比如1998-1999年亚洲金融危机期间,通过加入WTO,推动外需增长,带动物价回升。2008年和2015年通缩周期也都伴随着外需的回暖。

第二,如果外需承压,通过地产投资来刺激国内需求弥补外需缺口。比如2008年四万亿刺激计划,2015年,地产涨价去库存,通过拉升房地产市场需求,弥补外需缺口,最终带领物价走出泥潭。

那么,这两条路径还能继续奏效吗?

大概率很难。

首先,房地产投资就是目前经济的最大拖累项,并且预计在短期内无法解决。根据我们的预测,2025年房地产行业将会使GDP增长率降低2个百分点,并且这种增长拖累或会持续至2030年。

其次,出口估计也不能做过多指望。

自2017年川普上台开始,全球政治向“右转”,“只扫自家门前雪,不管他人瓦上霜”的民粹主义、保护主义浪潮迭起。而2024年特朗普的再度当选,其保守主义、孤立主义比8年之前表现的更为激进。

在对华贸易政策上,美国新一届政府提出“对中国商品全面征收60%关税”、并积极主张“取消中国最惠国待遇”。更为严峻的是目前不仅仅是美国,包括欧盟、沙特以及东南亚的越南、泰国、印尼等诸多国家都提出要对中国产品加征关税。

这会带来什么影响呢?

根据高盛的测算,美国这一个国家对我们的平均税率从目前的19.3%只提升20个百分点,都将会使我们明年的经济增速下降0.7个百分点,回到4字头的增速。

如果提升到60%呢?

瑞银集团的最新研究也显示,60%的关税将砍去中国经济年增长率的一半以上。

看到了吗?

出口和投资在未来都可能拖累经济的增长,所以拉动内部需求是我们不得不做的必选项。事实上,我们的政府也认识到了拉动居民消费的必要性。

政策层面上,在12月11日至12日举行的中央经济工作会议,把“大力提振消费”放在明年重点工作任务的第一位,强调要全方位扩大国内需求。

实际行动上,也采取了一系列措施,包括发放消费券、实施消费补贴、推动家电市场以旧换新、拉股市等等。

但一系列的措施,效果并不那么显著。那么未来,还有办法让消费起来吗?

有的!

具体应该怎么做呢?路径也很清晰,政策要减少对供给层面的刺激,要落到需求侧,加快修复居民资产负债表,做大居民收入,托底民生保障。让居民既有钱消费,更敢于消费。

首先,帮助居民修复资产负债表,直白一点就是稳住居民最大头的资产-房产。

数据显示,房产占我国居民总资产的比重达70%。

目前无数居民被套牢在房产上,房贷利息为刚性支出。收入一旦下降,不想要断供,只能节衣缩食偿还房贷。还如何指望宏观经济有需求,有未来?

所以,政府救地产的当务之急,就是要拿出真金白银救助存量房,稳住房价,呵护居民最核心的资产,为居民现金流腾挪空间。只有如此,才能护住居民的信心、护住经济的需求。

其次,要大幅提升居民收入占比,缩小贫富差距

消费的底层是收入。一般而言,居民消费支出占比和居民可支配收入占比呈明显的正相关关系,收入越高花的越多。

对比国际情况,我国居民部门可支配收入占比偏低。中国居民可支配收入占比在40%左右,其他我们耳熟能详的经济体,居民可支配收入占比都在50%以上。比如,美国是68%,越南也是68%,印度是58%,俄罗斯低一点,在52%。这意味着,每创造100块钱的GDP,美国人分走68块,印度人分走58块,我们分走40块。

分的少,花的自然少。而这个分的少,主要体现在初次分配中劳动者报酬占比较低,再分配环节向居民部门转移支付效果不显著。

2022年,中国劳动者报酬占国民收入比重为52.7%,低于美国、日本、韩国的62.1%、73.3%、59.8%。

一般而言,在初次分配不均的情况下,政府参与的再分配环节有助于调节收入分配不均的情况。但从我国的现实情况看,再分配调节作用不佳。2022年,居民、企业、政府部门在初次分配环节收入份额分别为62.2%、26.6%、11.2%,三者在再分配环节收入份额分别为60.8%、22.6%、16.6%。

可见,再分配环节并未提升居民收入份额,更多体现为企业部门收入在税收环节向政府部门而不是居民部门转移。比较不同国家的衡量贫富差距指标基尼系数,发达国家的基尼系数值在财政调节后明显下降,而中国的基尼系数基本不受财政调节的影响。

所以,在初次分配中,要提高企业支付的劳动者报酬占比,鼓励企业分红、适当减少利润留存,让居民有钱可花。在再分配环节,政府税收要提升累进性质的直接税占比,比如加大对富人征税,对低收入群体减税,缩小收入差距,这些才是提升居民消费的根本途径。

最后,政府还应该完善医疗和养老保险问题,为居民的看病和养老兜底,让居民消费没有后顾之忧。

从我国当前财政支出来看,社会保障支出严重不足。2010-2020年,美国广义政府财政支出中社会保障一项占GDP的比重平均为17.5%,中国的社会保障支出占GDP比重平均为9.6%,仅为美国的55%。同一时期,美国财政支出中用于经济建设以及相关运营、管理工作的经济事务一项占GDP的比重平均为3.8%,中国则平均为8.1%。

目前的财政支出,向逆周期属性的社会保障支出不足,缓冲居民消费需求的能力较弱。居民对未来收入预期不足的情况下,又没有兜底,消费起来战战兢兢,年轻人不婚不育的的底层逻辑也在于此。

所以,政府要加大财政支出向社保倾斜,让居民没有后顾之忧,敢于消费,敢于畅想未来。

救济经济根本没有特效药,只有综合施策,方能走出困境。

Woman dies after being set on fire on New York subway

Getty Images Police investigate at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman aboard a subway car was set on fire and diedGetty Images
Police were called to Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman on a subway car was set on fire

A suspect has been arrested in New York over the death of a woman who was set on fire on a subway train in Brooklyn.

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch described the incident on Sunday as "one of the most depraved crimes one person could possibly commit against another human being".

She said the woman was sleeping on a stationary F train to Brooklyn when she was approached by the suspect who used a lighter to ignite her clothing.

The victim died at the scene, she said, adding that the suspect had been taken into custody after he was detained on another subway train.

Police said the woman, who has not been named, was sleeping in a subway carriage at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue station in Brooklyn at about 07:30 local time (12:30 GMT) when a man approached her.

There was no interaction before the attack, police said, adding that they did not believe the two people knew each other.

The man got off the train as police officers on patrol in the station rushed to the fire.

"What they saw was a person standing inside the train car fully engulfed in flames," Ms Tisch said.

Police are still working to identify the victim and the motive for the attack.

Saudi warnings about market attack suspect were ignored

EPA A man mourns at the mourning site in front of St. John's Church following a vehicle-ramming attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany,  22 December 2024EPA
People have been leaving floral tributes for the victims of Friday's attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany

The Saudi authorities, I am told, are currently working flat out to collate everything they have on the Magdeburg market suspect, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, and to share it with Germany's ongoing investigation "in every way possible".

Inside the imposing sand coloured and fortress-like walls of the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh there is a perhaps justifiable sense of pique.

The ministry previously warned the German government about al-Abdulmohsen's extremist views.

It sent four so-called "Notes Verbal", three of them to Germany's intelligence agencies and one to the foreign ministry in Berlin. There was, the Saudis say, no response.

Part of the explanation for this may lie in the fact that Taleb al-Abdulmohsen was granted asylum by Germany in 2016, one year after the former Chancellor Angela Merkel threw open her country's borders to let in more than a million migrants from the Middle East, and 10 years after al-Abdulmohsen had taken up residence in Germany.

Coming from a country where Islam is the only religion permitted to be practiced in public, al-Abdulmohsen was a very unusual citizen.

He had turned his back on Islam, making himself a heretic in the eyes of many.

Born in the Saudi date palm oasis town of Hofuf in 1974, little is known about his early life before he decided to leave Saudi Arabia and move to Europe aged 32.

Active on social media, on his Twitter (later X) account he labels himself as both a psychiatrist and founder of Saudi rights movement, together with the tag @SaudiExMuslims.

He founded a website aimed at helping Saudi women flee their country to Europe.

The Saudis say he was a people trafficker and the Ministry of Interior's investigators, the Mabaatheth, are said to have an extensive file on him.

There have been reports in recent years of dissident Saudis coming under hostile surveillance from Saudi government agents, in Canada, the US and in Germany.

There is no question that the German authorities, both federal and state, have made some serious errors of omission in the case of al-Abdulmohsen.

Whatever their reasons for not responding, as the Saudis claim, to the repeated warnings about his extremism, he was clearly a danger to his adopted host country.

There is also, separately, the failure to close off, or at least guard, the emergency access route to Magdeburg Alter Markt that allowed him to allegedly drive his BMW into the crowds.

German authorities have defended the market's layout and said an investigation into the suspect's past is ongoing.

But a complicating factor here is that Saudi Arabia, although considered a friend and ally of the West, has a poor human rights record.

Until June 2018 Saudi women were forbidden to drive and even those women who publicly called for that ban to be lifted before then have been persecuted and imprisoned.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, still only in his 30s, just, is immensely popular in his own country.

Reuters Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman looks on as he meets U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 23, 2024Reuters
The Saudi crown prince pictured in Riyadh during a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in October

While Western leaders largely distanced themselves from him after his alleged involvement in the grisly murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, which the crown prince denies, at home his star is still in the ascendant.

Under his de-facto rule, Saudi public life has transformed for the better, with men and women allowed to associate freely, and cinemas reopening, along with big, spectacular sports and entertainment events, even gigs performed by Western artists like David Guetta and the Black Eyed Peas.

But there is a paradox here.

While Saudi public life has flourished there has been a simultaneous crackdown on anything that even hints at more political or religious freedom.

Harsh prison sentences of 10 years or more have been handed down for simple tweets.

No-one is permitted to even question the way the country is run.

It is against this backdrop that Germany appears to have dropped the ball with Taleb al-Abdulmohsen.

Slovak PM meets Putin in unannounced Moscow visit

EPA Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (L) during their meeting at the Kremlin in MoscowEPA
Robert Fico has previously reiterated his opposition to the West's policy of arming Ukraine

Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico has made a surprise visit to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin - becoming only the third Western leader to meet the Russian leader since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

Fico - a vocal critic of the European Union's support for Kyiv in the war - said they discussed supplies of Russian gas to Slovakia - which his country relies on.

A deal with Russian gas giant Gazprom to transit energy through Ukraine to Slovakia is due to expire at the end of this year.

"Top EU officials were informed about my journey and its purpose... on Friday," Fico wrote on Facebook.

Fico said the meeting in Moscow was a reaction to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky telling EU leaders that Ukraine remains opposed to Russian gas being piped through its territory.

The Slovakian PM, who survived being shot earlier this year, also said he had a "long conversation" with Putin and the two "exchanged views on the military situation in Ukraine".

Both discussed "the possibilities of an early, peaceful end of the war" and mutual relations between Russia and Slovakia, Fico wrote on Facebook.

Slovakia and Hungary, which both depend on Russian gas, have raised concerns about the prospect of supplies being interrupted.

In October 2023, when Fico became prime minister again, he ended Slovakia's military aid to Ukraine.

But, he has insisted he wants to be a "good, friendly neighbour" to Ukraine.

Fico's meeting with Putin came as the leaders of Italy, Sweden, Greece and Finland met on Sunday for a security summit.

Speaking afterwards, Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said Russia was a "permanent and dangerous threat" to the EU.

He also stressed the need for increased defence spending and support for Ukraine.

特朗普暗示TikTok短期不会遭禁


2024-12-23T12:08:28.697Z

(德国之声中文网)特朗普是在亚利桑那州凤凰城对一群保守派支持者发表上述言论的。这也是他迄今为止在TikTok是否应退出美国市场问题上最为明确的表态。

今年四月,美国参议院通过一项法律,以保障国家安全为由,要求TikTok的母公司“字节跳动”同该应用进行剥离

特朗普:至少应允许TikTok在美国继续运营一段时间。

TikTok持有者则希望推翻这一法律,美国最高法院也同意就此案展开听证。而一旦法庭做出不利于“字节跳动”的判决,那么,特朗普正式出任总统前一天,即1月19日,TikTok将在美国被禁止使用。

至于特朗普届时是否以及会如何撤销此前参议院以压倒多数通过的该项法案,目前尚不清楚。特朗普在“美国节”集会上对支持者表示:“我认为,我们必须重新对此问题进行思考,因为大家知道,我们使用了TikTok,并获得了数以十亿计的热烈反响。

特朗普说:“他们带给我一张流量统计,数据看上去非常之好,因此我说,我们也许可以让这个家伙继续保留一段时间。”

周一,特朗普同TikTok首席执行官举行了会谈。稍后他在新闻发布会上表示,他对TikTok很“热心”。因为此前他的竞选活动在这个社媒平台上取得了成功。

今年一月,TikTok首席执行官周受资在美国参议院接受问询。

美国司法部此前曾表示,由于TikTok是受中国控制的,因此对美国国家安全构成了持久性的威胁。这一立场也获得了大多数议员的支持。

TikTok则表示,美国司法部对该社媒软件同中国的关系进行了错误的阐述,并强调该平台的用户数据以及内容推送机制都是在美国甲骨文公司的云端完成的,而内容管理的决定也同样是在美国境内做出的。

(路透社)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

特朗普上任之初即退出世界卫生组织?


2024-12-23T11:21:13.604Z
特朗普同指定的美卫生部长小肯尼迪

(德国之声中文网)《金融时报》22日报导,特朗普团队希望促成在他就职第一天,让美国退出世界卫生组织(WHO)。此消息来自多位专家,他们从新政府交接团队口中听闻这样的打算。

曾任拜登政府新冠疫情应变协调官的扎哈(Ashish Jha)透露,"新政府内部很多人不相信世卫,希望在第一天就象征性地展现出态度,表明他们不玩了"。

特朗普此前提名疫苗怀疑论者小肯尼迪(Robert F Kennedy)为美国卫生部长,美国退出世卫的可能性由此再度浮上台面。不过,乔治城法律学院公卫学者高斯丁(Lawrence Gostin)说,特朗普本人的思考是否跟他的团队契合,把此事当成首要之务,目前还很难说。

截止到发稿,特朗普团队未直接正式回应此事,世卫亦未置评。不过,世卫秘书长谭德塞(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)本月曾表示,希望能跟美国决策人士合作,"我相信美国领导阶层理解,美国不可能安全,除非世界其他地方也都安全"。

扎哈示警:"如果不参与这些组织,那下一次疫情爆发的时候,你就很难密切关注情况。"

高斯丁则形容,美国若真的退出,将对全球公卫体系带来"灾难性"的打击。随着世卫失去最大的资金来源,"留下巨大的资金真空和领导空窗,在我看来没人能填补缺口"。随着WTO预算减少,可能难以有效应对紧急公卫事件,甚至不得不大幅削减科学研发人员。

此外,高斯丁认为,欧洲国家不太可能积极增加给世卫的资金,反而是中国会尝试施加更多影响力,"美国退出会把领导权拱手让给中国,这不是明智之举"。

(金融时报等)

© 2024年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

Woman dies after being set on fire on New York subway

Getty Images Police investigate at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman aboard a subway car was set on fire and diedGetty Images
Police were called to Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman on a subway car was set on fire

A suspect has been arrested in New York over the death of a woman who was set on fire on a subway train in Brooklyn.

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch described the incident on Sunday as "one of the most depraved crimes one person could possibly commit against another human being".

She said the woman was sleeping on a stationary F train to Brooklyn when she was approached by the suspect who used a lighter to ignite her clothing.

The victim died at the scene, she said, adding that the suspect had been taken into custody after he was detained on another subway train.

Police said the woman, who has not been named, was sleeping in a subway carriage at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue station in Brooklyn at about 07:30 local time (12:30 GMT) when a man approached her.

There was no interaction before the attack, police said, adding that they did not believe the two people knew each other.

The man got off the train as police officers on patrol in the station rushed to the fire.

"What they saw was a person standing inside the train car fully engulfed in flames," Ms Tisch said.

Police are still working to identify the victim and the motive for the attack.

Saudi warnings about market attack suspect were ignored

EPA A man mourns at the mourning site in front of St. John's Church following a vehicle-ramming attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany,  22 December 2024EPA
People have been leaving floral tributes for the victims of Friday's attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany

The Saudi authorities, I am told, are currently working flat out to collate everything they have on the Magdeburg market suspect, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, and to share it with Germany's ongoing investigation "in every way possible".

Inside the imposing sand coloured and fortress-like walls of the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh there is a perhaps justifiable sense of pique.

The ministry previously warned the German government about al-Abdulmohsen's extremist views.

It sent four so-called "Notes Verbal", three of them to Germany's intelligence agencies and one to the foreign ministry in Berlin. There was, the Saudis say, no response.

Part of the explanation for this may lie in the fact that Taleb al-Abdulmohsen was granted asylum by Germany in 2016, one year after the former Chancellor Angela Merkel threw open her country's borders to let in more than a million migrants from the Middle East, and 10 years after al-Abdulmohsen had taken up residence in Germany.

Coming from a country where Islam is the only religion permitted to be practiced in public, al-Abdulmohsen was a very unusual citizen.

He had turned his back on Islam, making himself a heretic in the eyes of many.

Born in the Saudi date palm oasis town of Hofuf in 1974, little is known about his early life before he decided to leave Saudi Arabia and move to Europe aged 32.

Active on social media, on his Twitter (later X) account he labels himself as both a psychiatrist and founder of Saudi rights movement, together with the tag @SaudiExMuslims.

He founded a website aimed at helping Saudi women flee their country to Europe.

The Saudis say he was a people trafficker and the Ministry of Interior's investigators, the Mabaatheth, are said to have an extensive file on him.

There have been reports in recent years of dissident Saudis coming under hostile surveillance from Saudi government agents, in Canada, the US and in Germany.

There is no question that the German authorities, both federal and state, have made some serious errors of omission in the case of al-Abdulmohsen.

Whatever their reasons for not responding, as the Saudis claim, to the repeated warnings about his extremism, he was clearly a danger to his adopted host country.

There is also, separately, the failure to close off, or at least guard, the emergency access route to Magdeburg Alter Markt that allowed him to allegedly drive his BMW into the crowds.

German authorities have defended the market's layout and said an investigation into the suspect's past is ongoing.

But a complicating factor here is that Saudi Arabia, although considered a friend and ally of the West, has a poor human rights record.

Until June 2018 Saudi women were forbidden to drive and even those women who publicly called for that ban to be lifted before then have been persecuted and imprisoned.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, still only in his 30s, just, is immensely popular in his own country.

Reuters Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman looks on as he meets U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 23, 2024Reuters
The Saudi crown prince pictured in Riyadh during a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in October

While Western leaders largely distanced themselves from him after his alleged involvement in the grisly murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, which the crown prince denies, at home his star is still in the ascendant.

Under his de-facto rule, Saudi public life has transformed for the better, with men and women allowed to associate freely, and cinemas reopening, along with big, spectacular sports and entertainment events, even gigs performed by Western artists like David Guetta and the Black Eyed Peas.

But there is a paradox here.

While Saudi public life has flourished there has been a simultaneous crackdown on anything that even hints at more political or religious freedom.

Harsh prison sentences of 10 years or more have been handed down for simple tweets.

No-one is permitted to even question the way the country is run.

It is against this backdrop that Germany appears to have dropped the ball with Taleb al-Abdulmohsen.

Morrisons discount cards not working and Christmas deliveries delayed

Getty Images The exterior of a Morrisons on a sunny day, with the logo prominentGetty Images

Morrisons customers have been unable to get discounts on their shopping ahead of Christmas after a problem with the More loyalty card.

The supermarket has been advertising heavy discounts on Christmas dinner food, including vegetables, in the last week.

But social media users say their discounts are not working at the till, with one person posting a photo of an error message at the self-checkout, which reads: "We are really sorry some promotions and discounts are not working at this time."

The Morrisons website also appears to be down, with a "502 bad gateway" error message on some pages.

Morrisons has been contacted for comment.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.

Good news for Christmas travellers as weather improves ahead of final rush

Getty Images Cars on M4 motorway near Tata Steel Port Talbot in south WalesGetty Images

Weather conditions are improving across the UK ahead of the final Christmas travel rush and last-minute shopping dash.

Almost all weather warnings which had been in place have now been lifted, after the weekend saw strong winds cause flight cancellations and widespread rail delays.

The disruption included a plane suffering an emergency incident at Belfast City Airport on Sunday evening, when its nose wheel appeared to break during landing in stormy conditions. The runway reopened on Monday morning.

The Met Office has forecast a "grey Christmas" with "extremely mild" temperatures for most in the coming days - ruling out any prospect of a white Christmas for the majority of the country.

It comes after parts of the UK were hit by chilly temperatures and 50-60mph winds on Saturday and Sunday - with the strongest gust recorded in South Uist on the Western Isles clocking in at 82mph.

But the travel picture looks far more straightforward for those making journeys today or on Tuesday.

While Heathrow Airport was forced to cancel around 100 flights on Sunday due to the conditions, a spokesperson said it was "business as usual" on Monday.

And National Rail was not reporting any widespread issues on Monday morning, though there were some isolated problems around Inverness, Portsmouth and Southsea.

Ferry customers are still being warned of ongoing disruption on some routes operating from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

A yellow weather warning for ice will remain in place for parts of northern Scotland until 10:00 GMT on Monday.

Temperatures are expected to improve "considerably" in the final run-up to Christmas Day, with sunshine forecast in some areas.

Met Office meteorologist Dan Stroud said "temperatures will be well above average" in England in Wales, though it will be overcast for many.

Christmas Eve is forecast to hit an average temperature of 12C or 13C, while Christmas Day is expected to be 11C or 12C.

"The usual average for this time of year is 7C or 8C so we'll be around double where we usually are," he added.

Hollywood stars support Blake Lively over legal complaint

Getty Images America Ferrara, who has long black hair, next to Blake Lively, who has long blonde hair, on Good Morning America back in 2008Getty Images

Hollywood stars America Ferrera, Amber Tamblyn and Alexis Bledel have publicly backed US actress Blake Lively after she filed a legal complaint against It Ends With Us co-star Justin Baldoni.

Ms Lively filed the legal complaint over the weekend against Mr Baldoni, alleging sexual harassment and a campaign to "destroy" her reputation.

Mr Baldoni's legal team told the BBC on Saturday that the allegations are "categorically false".

Ferrera, Tamblyn and Biedel, who starred with Lively in 2005 film The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, issued a joint statement on Instagram on Sunday saying they "stand with her in solidarity".

Coleen Hoover, the author of It Ends With Us, also showed her support, describing Ms Lively as "honest, kind, supportive and patient".

Lawyers for Ms Lively say the legal complaint follows a meeting earlier this year to address "repeated sexual harassment and other disturbing behaviour" by Baldoni, her co-star and a producer on the movie.

In their statement, Ferrera, Tamblyn and Biedel said: "As Blake's friends and sisters for over 20 years, we stand with her in solidarity as she fights back against the reported campaign waged to destroy her reputation.

"Throughout the filming of It Ends with Us, we saw her summon the courage to ask for a safe workplace for herself and colleagues on set, and we are appalled to read the evidence of a premeditated and vindictive effort that ensued to discredit her voice."

Getty Images Blake Lively, Alexis Biedel, America Ferrara and Amber Tamblyn cosy up for a group photo at New York's MTV Studios in 2008Getty Images
L to R: Blake Lively, Alexis Biedel, America Ferrara and Amber Tamblyn

They added: "Most upsetting is the unabashed exploitation of domestic violence survivors' stories to silence a woman who asked for safety. The hypocrisy is astounding.

"We are struck by the reality that even if a woman is as strong, celebrated, and resourced as our friend Blake, she can face forceful retaliation for daring to ask for a safe working environment," the statement added.

"We are inspired by our sister's courage to stand up for herself and others."

Lawyers for Mr Baldoni said they hired a crisis manager because Ms Lively had threatened to derail the film unless her demands were met.

In the drama It Ends With Us, Ms Lively plays a woman who finds herself in a relationship with a charming but abusive boyfriend, played by Mr Baldoni.

In a post to her Instagram stories, Colleen Hoover, the author of the novel on which the film was based, also voiced her support: "@BlakeLively you have been nothing but honest, kind, supportive and patient since the day we met.

"Thank you for being exactly the human that you are.

"Never change. Never wilt."

She then linked to a New York Times article titled We Can Bury Anyone: Inside A Hollywood Smear Machine.

Hoover also re-posted the statement from Ferrara, Biedel and Tamblyn, adding: "This statement from these women and Blake's ability to refuse to sit down and 'be buried' has been nothing short of inspiring."

The meeting between Ms Lively and Mr Baldoni, together with others involved in the movie's production plus Ms Lively's actor husband Ryan Reynolds, took place on 4 January 2024, and it aimed to address "the hostile work environment" on set, according to Ms Lively's legal filing.

Mr Baldoni attended the meeting in his capacity as co-chairman and co-founder of the company that produced the film, Wayfarer Studios. He was also the film's director.

In the legal complaint, Ms Lively's lawyers allege that both Mr Baldoni and the Wayfarer chief executive officer, Jamey Heath, engaged in "inappropriate and unwelcome behaviour towards Ms Lively and others on the set of It Ends With Us".

In the filing to the California Civil Rights Department, a list of 30 demands relating to the pair's alleged misconduct was made at the meeting to ensure they could continue to produce the film.

Among them, Ms Lively requested that there be no more mention of Mr Baldoni and Mr Heath's previous "pornography addiction" to Ms Lively or to other crew members, no more descriptions of their own genitalia to Ms Lively, and "no more adding of sex scenes, oral sex, or on camera climaxing by BL [Blake Lively] outside the scope of the script BL approved when signing onto the project", says the complaint.

Ms Lively also demanded that Mr Baldoni stop saying he could speak to her dead father.

Getty Images Justin Baldoni and Blake Lively on the set of It Ends With US. They are mid-conversation. Baldoni is wearing all black. Lively has a brown dress on with an orange shirt over the top.Getty Images

Ms Lively's legal team further accuse Mr Baldoni and Wayfarer Studios of leading a "multi-tiered plan" to wreck her reputation.

She alleges this was "the intended result of a carefully crafted, coordinated, and resourced retaliatory scheme to silence her, and others from speaking out about the hostile environment that Mr Baldoni and Mr Heath created".

Responding to the legal complaint, Mr Baldoni's lawyer, Bryan Freedman, said on Saturday: "It is shameful that Ms Lively and her representatives would make such serious and categorically false accusations against Mr Baldoni, Wayfarer Studios and its representatives."

Mr Freedman accused Ms Lively of making numerous demands and threats, including "threatening to not show up to set, threatening to not promote the film", which would end up "ultimately leading to its demise during release, if her demands were not met".

He alleged that Ms Lively's claims were "intentionally salacious with an intent to publicly hurt and rehash a narrative in the media".

In a statement via her attorneys to the BBC, Ms Lively said: "I hope that my legal action helps pull back the curtain on these sinister retaliatory tactics to harm people who speak up about misconduct and helps protect others who may be targeted."

She also denied that she or any of her representatives had planted or spread negative information about Mr Baldoni or Wayfarer.

The film was a box-office hit, although some critics said it romanticised domestic violence.

Cadbury loses royal warrant after 170 years

Matt Cardy/Getty Images A large slab of several squares of Cadbury chocolate.Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Cadbury was granted its first royal warrant under Queen Victoria in 1854

Chocolate maker Cadbury has been dropped from the list of royal warrants for the first time in 170 years.

The Birmingham-based chocolatier was awarded its first royal warrant as chocolate and cocoa manufacturers by Queen Victoria in 1854, but it has lost its royal endorsement under King Charles.

The King has granted royal warrants to 386 companies that previously held warrants from Queen Elizabeth II, including John Lewis, Heinz and Nestle.

Companies holding the Royal Warrant of Appointment, granted for up to five years, are recognised for providing goods or services to the monarchy.

Among the King's list of warrant holders are many firms selling food and drink, such as Moet and Chandon, Weetabix and chocolate makers Bendicks and Prestat Ltd.

Warrant holders are allowed to use the coat of arms of the royal they are associated with on packaging, as part of advertising or on stationery.

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'Cheeeeese... meet the man behind Wallace's new voice'

BBC/Aardman Animations/Richard Davies/Stuart Collis Wallace & Gromit in Vengeance Most Fowl, running away from something with Wallace holding a torchBBC/Aardman Animations/Richard Davies/Stuart Collis
Wallace & Gromit in Vengeance Most Fowl

If you asked TV viewers to name a favourite double act, chances are the two stars of Vengeance Most Fowl would be close to the top of the list.

It's Wallace & Gromit's first major appearance in over a decade, and the first film not to feature the voice of Peter Sallis as the cheese-loving inventor.

"It has been quite emotional [doing this production] since we lost Peter, he was such an original, unique voice," says Nick Park of Sallis, who died in 2017 at the age of 96.

"So it's very hard for anyone to step into his shoes. But we have been blessed with a youngish actor whom we've known for many years who can do a fantastic Wallace impersonation.

"He's stepped in very kindly, and is just great. It's hard to tell them apart."

PA Media The original voice of Wallace, Peter Sallis with Nick Park in 2008PA Media
The original voice of Wallace, Peter Sallis with Nick Park in 2008

Take a bow, Ben Whitehead - the 47-year-old actor and voice artist says he feels honoured to be taking on the role. But also admits to feeling a degree of pressure.

"Enormous pressure!" he tells the BBC.

"Because it's a very popular character. I got to work with Peter [Sallis] a couple of times for [2005's] The Curse of the Were-Rabbit film.

"So yeah, there's a great deal of pressure with that. And I feel very grateful to Aardman for giving me so much time to build the character.

"You kind of have to do the 'hmm' and the 'hee-hee'," he continues - demonstrating some Wallace-isms that sound indistinguishable from Peter Sallies's Yorkshire tones.

"Definitely the elongation of the vowels like 'cheeeeese'!"

Why return now?

Fans have been clamouring for more from the plasticine pair for years. So why now?

"Whenever we've done talks around the world, the last question is always, 'When is the next Wallace & Gromit film?', explains Park. "The last time we did that I just came home burning with this idea that's been around for years."

The idea was - what if Wallace created a pre-programmed, voice-controlled smart Gnome.

Enter Norbot, but of course regular viewers of Wallace & Gromit will be unsurprised to learn that the inventor's well-intentioned idea, as usual, ends up causing mayhem.

Aardman Animations Wallace & Gromit with the smart gnome NorbotAardman Animations
In Vengeance Most Fowl Wallace & Gromit are joined by smart gnome Norbot

This isn't the only familiar element to appear in this latest story.

This new adventure also features an old villain, the criminal mastermind Feathers McGraw, a chicken-impersonating-penguin whom Wallace & Gromit - mostly Gromit - defeated in 1993's The Wrong Trousers.

BBC/Aardman Animations/Richard Davies/Stuart Collis Feathers McGrawBBC/Aardman Animations/Richard Davies/Stuart Collis
Feathers McGraw is back

"Whenever we're out and about talking about the future of Wallace & Gromit, the single most asked question is 'when will Feathers be back?", says Merlin Crossingham, who directs Vengeance Most Fowl alongside Nick Park.

"Everybody loves a villain, it's often said your film is only as good as its villain, [so it] seemed a perfect opportunity to bring Feathers back for this story."

Aardman Animations Directors Merlin Crossingham and Nick Park on one of the film's setsAardman Animations
Directors Merlin Crossingham and Nick Park on one of the film's sets

Wallace & Gromit were first introduced to audiences with 1989's A Grand Day Out. Since then their adventures have involved everything from malfunctioning clothing to mysterious were-rabbits.

"I think Wallace & Gromit have so many facets to their relationship," says Crossingham.

"They are best pals. They're kind of partners in crime, they're man and dog. And hopefully in the films, their stories, and their relationship everybody young and old relates to them.

"I truly think it's that relatability, not just of their simplicity of lifestyle from which madness erupts.

"But everybody somewhere in the stories connects with them on some level.

"And I think that what Nick has created, right back at the beginning with A Grand Day Out, has really struck a chord with people."

'Christmas day ratings battle'

The last time a new Wallace & Gromit adventure went out on Christmas Day was in 2008 with A Matter of Loaf and Death. It was day's most-watched show, with more than 16 million viewers tuning in.

It was also the most-watched show of the entire year.

While it's still possible that it could repeat that feat, it's up against some extremely tough competition.

"Bring it on, Gavin & Stacey!" jokes Crossingham, acknowledging the huge popularity of the Essex and Barry-based comedy, whose finale also goes out on Christmas Day.

However while Gavin & Stacey might be reaching its conclusion, this definitely isn't a finale for Wallace & Gromit.

"[It's] certainly not the end," says Nick Park. "I think there's plenty of bounce still in their bungee.

"We'll carry on. There's always ideas worth kicking about."

"Give us a minute though," Interjects Merlin. "They take a while to make!"

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is on BBC One at 18.10 on Christmas Day.

Unsealed crates reveal forgotten funfair dreamed up by art legends

© Keith Haring Foundation/licensed by Artestar, New York. Photo: © Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC Children and adults pile onto  Keith Haring’s carousel in Hamburg as others watch on.© Keith Haring Foundation/licensed by Artestar, New York. Photo: © Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC

Children played on fairground rides designed by the world's greatest artists for a single summer before they disappeared for decades.

The attractions were part of the world's first art funfair - Luna Luna - dreamed up by little-known Austrian creative André Heller in the 1970s, featuring a carousel by Keith Haring, a Ferris wheel by Jean-Michel Basquiat and a David Hockney pavilion.

Visitors could wander Roy Lichtenstein's hall of mirrors and marvel at Salvador Dali's fun dome, sampling biscuits decorated by artist Gertie Frölich as actors dressed as nuns and flamingos milled about.

A successful attraction for months, plans for a grand European tour formed - but when they later fell through, an extensive legal battle ensued and the rides were shut down, disassembled and packed away, forgotten.

Until now.

Luna Luna is unwrapped

American entrepreneur Michael Goldberg stumbled across Luna Luna on an art blog. He'd never heard of it, despite some of the art world's biggest names contributing. Neither, to his surprise, had his friends in the industry.

"Everyone asked me what I was talking about," he said. "Something seemed a little odd."

'In love' with the fair, Goldberg wrote to Heller, introducing himself and proposing a new iteration of the Austrian's original dream.

The two slowly built a rapport and Heller revealed that the attractions had been stored in 44 shipping containers in Austin, Texas since their disassembly.

Opening in 1987, Luna Luna was a colourful success for three months. Its run was extended twice due to high demand, but while trying to fund a European tour, Heller fell into debt and sold the fair to an American foundation.

© Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC A young David Hockney smokes a cigarette as he paints a blue and red structure with someone peering over his shoulder. © Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC
Artist David Hockney works on a model of his Enchanted Tree pavilion in Los Angeles, California, the year before Luna Luna first opened.

The foundation tried to back out of the deal - "buyers remorse", according to Goldberg - but eventually went through with it. For the duration of the years-long battle and the new ownership, however, the rides were kept in storage.

Decades since Luna Luna was packed away, Goldberg rallied a team of investors to buy what might be left of the exhibition from the foundation - sight unseen.

His key investor? Global rap star Drake, via his investment and entertainment business DreamCrew.

"The idea of restoring something so rich in cultural history outweighed the risks and for us, it wasn't about guarantees," Anthony Gonzales, CEO of DreamCrew, told the BBC.

The New York Times estimated they paid $100m (about £80m). The Guardian reported the sum at $1m. Goldberg did not disclose the final price to the BBC.

© Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC Two performers dressed as flamingos touch beaks at the center of a crowd.© Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna, LLC
Performers dressed as flamingos and nuns walked among visitors at Luna Luna in 1987.

When he opened the first of the containers, Goldberg started to sweat. Luna Luna's original merchandise had been torn to shreds.

"Did I just lead a group to spend millions of dollars on a pile of dust artwork that essentially rotted away?" he wondered.

It was a sleepless night.

But the next day, as more paper was removed from a second container, the light caught a toffee-apple-red handlebar to Haring's carousel, then the white floorboards of Basquiat's Ferris wheel, which "could have been painted days ago". It was a moment of "instant relief", said Goldberg.

The return of Luna Luna

Unearthing the artwork wasn't the hardest part of Luna Luna's revival.

Brad Gooch, author of recent official Haring biography, Radiant: The Life and Line of Keith Haring, saw Luna Luna being reconstructed, describing the feat as "mind boggling."

"It was like a giant Lego with no instruction kit," he said.

A crew of artists, carnival technicians, curators and architects worked together to meticulously rebuild Luna Luna for two years before its grand reopening in LA this March.

Now, Luna Luna: Forgotten Fantasy has come to a Midtown Manhattan art and theatre complex, The Shed. The fair is on display alongside exhibits detailing its surreal curation process.

Brian Ferry courtesy of Luna Luna LLC Visitors to Luna Luna's exhibits are blurred as they rush past the rides.Brian Ferry courtesy of Luna Luna LLC
Performers dressed in costumes by art collective Poncili Creación mingle with crowds at Luna Luna: Forgotten Fantasy in New York.

Alex Poots, creative co-founder of The Shed, described the journey as a "Raiders of the Lost Ark story", in reference to the film, praising Heller's ability to commission artists of such high calibre while finding a format appealing to "art lovers and yet to be art lovers."

"That is a holy grail kind of pursuit," he added.

Most of the original rides are now housed in a towering 17,000-square foot space. There, exhibition-goers can "marry" one another in Heller's Wedding Chapel - originally a form of protest art against anti-LGBTQ marriage laws of the 80s.

Hockney's Enchanted Tree Pavilion still smells faintly sweet, as if stampeding children once crushed fallen popcorn into its floor.

Goldberg's wish to incorporate "today's greatest artists" is fulfilled with a soundtrack by modern musicians André 3000, Jamie xx and Jockstrap echoing around the space.

Drake isn't involved day-to-day but, "he is passionate about Luna Luna and has provided his full support since the beginning," Gonzales said.

All the fun of the fair?

There's one big difference between 1987's Luna Luna and today's: Children aren't allowed on the rides.

Basquiat's Ferris Wheel and Kenny Scharf's swing ride are display-only. So too (thankfully) is Manfred Deix's Palace of the Winds in which performers originally farted into microphones.

Haring biographer Gooch doesn't think the artist would have approved of children just watching his carousel turn.

"I can't imagine he would allow it," he said. "He was pretty insistent about interactivity of children with art, and this was art that was specifically made for them."

BBC/Ottilie Mitchell Keith Haring's carousel with bold cartoon figures is in close up.BBC/Ottilie Mitchell
Keith Haring's cartoon-covered carousel spins without riders from time to time at the New York exhibition of Luna Luna.

Poots, who played a significant role in coordinating the interdisciplinary side of the exhibition said of the decision: "They're priceless works of art now."

But he champions the possibility of audiences becoming "part of this moving exhibition" through the "carnival-esque environment with performance artists with light, with sound".

It has been a career-long mission of Poots not "to create these silos for elites".

He added that ticket prices, criticised by some as being too high, are "pretty reasonable" as the show cost "millions and millions of dollars to install".

Among the families wandering around The Shed on Thanksgiving weekend were Raemy Suwatson and her 11-year-old daughter, who learned she wouldn't be able to go on the rides the morning of their visit.

Haring's carousel was her favourite. "I wanted to ride it" she said, then added "but it was also cool to watch".

© Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna LLC Luna Luna's rides and attractions from a birds eye view sit in a field.© Sabina Sarnitz. Courtesy Luna Luna LLC
Luna Luna was originally held in a field in Hamburg before the rides went into storage.

The show is running from 20 November to 23 February, and will tour after it leaves The Shed. Ticket prices range from $44 for an adult to $241 for a Super Moon pass that allows buyers to skip lines. Children's tickets start at $25.

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