每日一语 2025.1.9
深深太平洋底深深伤心。
深深太平洋底深深伤心。
RISING FROM HIS GRAVE: Mayor Eric Adams’ State of the City address had a blaring message: I’m not just here — I’m thriving.
“Even dark moments are not burials, they’re plantings,” Adams said. “Allow your planting to happen and you'll see the fruits of your labor. Mommy did it, and that's why I'm mayor.”
The first New York City mayor in modern history to be indicted on criminal charges wants the world to know that the federal corruption indictment, the sinking poll numbers and the flurry of federal raids and mass resignations hasn’t chipped his self-belief one bit — lest there had been any doubt.
“Don't let anyone fool you,” he said. “Don't listen to the noise, don't listen to the rhetoric. New York City, the state of our city is strong.”
“The ultimate measure of a man or woman is not where they stand in moments of comfort and convenience, but where they stand at times of challenges and controversy,” he also said, paraphrasing Martin Luther King Jr. as he thanked the members of his staff who hadn’t resigned.
He delivered the hourlong message of defiance after a brief 54 minutes of introduction that included a Christian prayer, a Muslim prayer, a Hindu prayer, a Sikh prayer, a Buddhist prayer, a Jewish prayer, the National anthem, God Bless America, the Black national anthem, two promotional videos, a youth drum line performance and some waiting.
The address, like all State of the City speeches, highlighted accomplishments — the City of Yes housing plan, the (partial) year-over-year drop in crime, the expansion of early childhood programs and the slowing of the city’s once unrelenting migrant crisis.
He also put two priorities for the upcoming legislative session in Albany front and center.
For the city, the mayor unveiled some key proposals:
And he continued to thank Hochul for their simpatico relationship — even featuring her in his promotional video.
“There were some who said, ‘Step down,’” Adams said. “I said, ‘No, I'm gonna step up. I'm gonna step up. That's what life presents you.’”
ZELLNOR-CODED: Brooklyn state senator and mayoral candidate Zellnor Myrie has been tapped to lead the Senate Codes committee — a well-timed appointment.
As he prepares for the June primary and begins his seventh year in Albany, Myrie will have a key role in shaping criminal justice policy in Albany while he and his challengers attempt to prove their preparedness on the campaign trail.
An October Siena poll found likely New York City voters identified crime as their biggest concern. Adams has already signaled public safety will again be the crux of his mayoral campaign and he’s likely to call out any left-of-center opponents for prior votes he views as soft on crime.
“I'm grateful the leader has entrusted me to chair this committee, particularly at a time where public safety is on the minds of every New Yorker,” Myrie told Playbook. “As someone who is from New York City, who takes our subways and our buses, who talks to neighbors, I can say confidently this is an issue that is prominent in their minds.”
Myrie most recently helmed the Elections Committee, and his new spot leading Codes — which deals with all things criminal justice — has traditionally been viewed as the third most-powerful committee chair in the Senate. Nevertheless, Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins — who has a cool relationship with Adams — still wields near absolute power in the chamber, deciding with leadership what bills make it to the floor.
Sen. Jessica Ramos, another mayoral candidate, will remain chair of the Labor Committee. Zohran Mamdani, the other state lawmaker vying to lead City Hall, was not assigned a leadership position in the Assembly.
“We're at a time where people are going to be using public safety as a political conversation, and I think that there needs to be a seriousness and sobriety in how we talk about actual solutions to this problem,” Myrie added, saying the committee will “be squarely focused on having actual solutions to city problems.” — Jason Beeferman
COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENTS ARE IN: Beyond Myrie, the Senate and Assembly announced all the other new committee leadership positions today, and that came with a host of changes, our colleague Bill Mahoney reported earlier in POLITICO Pro.
The Assembly
The Senate
THE WINNOWING: GOP leaders in the North Country House seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik will narrow the field of potential candidates by the end of the weekend, state party spokesperson David Laska said.
As Playbook reported this morning, Republican county chairs in the sprawling district met over Zoom with a dozen possible nominees. GOP officials expect to winnow that field of some 12 people to less than 10. Those preferred candidates will then advance to another round of vetting by Republican leaders.
Jockeying to replace Stefanik, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to serve as United Nations ambassador, has been underway for the past two months. A Republican candidate is expected to be heavily favored in a special election — likely to be scheduled for mid-April — given the party’s enrollment advantage in the largely rural seat. — Nick Reisman
— SALT SLOWDOWN: Members of New York’s GOP delegation, once promising a full repeal of the cap on State and Local Tax Deductions, are now tempering expectations as they signal a full repeal is unlikely. (NY1)
— THE WHEELS ON THE TRAIN GO ROUND AND ROUND … EXCRUCIATINGLY: There’s a mysterious defect on the subway tracks of lettered train lines that’s causing subway wheels to be worn down more quickly than ever. (Daily News)
— TOP NY COURT BUCKS TRUMP: The Court of Appeals denied a request to delay Trump’s sentencing in the “hush money” case. (Times Union)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
High winds and lack of rain are the main factors driving the Southern California fires, but climate change is altering the background conditions, increasing the likelihood of these conflagrations, say experts.
Researchers have shown that a warming world increases the number of "fire weather" days, when conditions are more suited to outbreaks of fire.
California is particularly vulnerable right now because of a lack of rain in recent months, following a very warm summer.
The powerful Santa Ana winds that naturally occur at this time of year, combined with the dry conditions, can result in fast moving and dangerous fire outbreaks.
Reaching 60-70 mph, these strong, dry winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast and this month has seen the worst high wind event in the area in over a decade.
The winds are drying out the lands, and researchers say that while the strongest winds will occur at the start of this outbreak, the driest vegetation will come at the end, meaning these fires could drag on for quite some time.
The high wind speeds are also altering the location of the fires. Many outbreaks occur high up on mountains, but these recent fires have rapidly moved down into the valleys and into areas where more people live.
"That's where there are more potential ignition sources," said climate researcher Daniel Swain from UCLA in a social media post.
"It's also where it's harder to turn off the power pre-emptively than it is in other locations where these public safety power shut offs are more common and are prepped for at a more regular basis. So there's going to be some potential challenges there."
The impact of a changing climate is evident in the bigger picture for the state.
California has experienced a decades-long drought that ended just two years ago. The resulting wet conditions since then have seen the rapid growth of shrubs and trees, the perfect fuel for fires.
However last summer was very hot and was followed by dry autumn and winter season - downtown Los Angeles has only received 0.16 inches of rain since October, more than 4 inches below average.
Researchers believe that a warming world is increasing the conditions that are conducive to wildland fire, including low relative humidity.
These "fire weather" days are increasing in many parts of the world, with climate change making these conditions more severe and the fire season lasting longer in many parts of the world, scientists have shown.
In California, the situation has been made worse by the topography with fires burning more intensely and moving more rapidly in steep terrain. This area of California is also dominated by naturally very fire-prone shrub vegetation.
"While fires are common and natural in this region, California has seen some of the most significant increases in the length and extremity of the fire weather season globally in recent decades, driven largely climate change," said Professor Stefan Doerr, Director of the Centre for Wildfire Research, at Swansea University.
"That said, it is too early to say to what degree climate change has made these specific fires more extreme. This will need to be evaluated in a more detailed attribution analysis."
"Can that chap sit, do we think?" asks Dr Raj Paw, a senior consultant in the emergency department at Warwick Hospital.
He is speaking about a patient in his 90s who was brought in after collapsing at home, where he was found cold and confused.
Now he is stable. Could that open up a bed?
"If we can get him to sit then he could go into one of the chairs, and that would free up his bed," Dr Paw says.
This is the sort of conversation doctors and nurses are having in hospitals up and down the country as a severe flu season puts the NHS under pressure.
More than a dozen hospitals have declared critical incidents - including some of those considered among the best in the country.
Earlier this week, the BBC visited Warwick Hospital. It is run by the South Warwickshire trust, which is one of the top rated in the country and has prided itself on the smooth running of its four hospitals.
But the caseload has been overwhelming this week.
Warwick Hospital has 375 beds and at one point the predicted demand was almost 100 more than that. For the first time ever, it's had to declare a critical incident - the highest alert level in the NHS.
The BBC was there when hospital administrators made the call. Declaring a critical incident is a warning to the local health system that things are getting bad. Often, it frees up hospitals to redeploy doctors and create new temporary ward space.
Over a two-day period, the BBC saw doctors and nurses doing just that: finding stop-gap solutions to treat patients in whatever safe settings could be established.
With emergency departments overflowing, sick people need to be treated in the chairs they're sitting in.
Others have had to wait in ambulances parked outside emergency units for hours before they could even be taken inside.
One such patient is Percy, who is in his 80s and experiencing liver failure. He came to hospital because he had been feeling sick and had lost weight over recent weeks.
Dr Arun Jeyakumar, a senior registrar on the ward, is one of the doctors sent out to check on patients like Percy.
Hopping into the ambulance, he has a brief consultation with him. He tells Percy that everything is being done to get him into the hospital.
Percy smiles back weakly, resigned to the wait.
The paramedic who brought him to the hospital is also resigned: he's seen plenty of cases like Percy's this season.
He turns up the heating in the back of the ambulance and sits down again as Dr Jeyakumar hops out and closes the doors.
Back in the emergency department, doctors, nurses and consultants discuss how to make space for new arrivals.
Beds are at an absolute premium in the hospital. So many patients have arrived that a room near the ambulance entrance has been set up for people considered "fit to sit".
Every chair is occupied.
"It isn't ideal," one doctor says. "But it is safe."
Porters have to wheel beds through this open space, between patients being treated in chairs and nurses kneeling on the floor to remove cannulas. Drip stands are shuffled back and forth to make room.
We see a nurse taking a patient, who is still attached to a drip, to the loo in a wheelchair.
She leaves the chair in the corridor and helps the patient in. A porter comes and goes to move the vacant wheelchair.
The nurse dashes back out. "That's my wheelchair," she cries.
We roll it back to her and she starts to laugh. "You can't take your eye off them for a second or another patient will be in it," she says - only half joking.
Elsewhere, Percy makes it it from the ambulance to the emergency department, after a three hour wait.
"It's getting worse," he says, wincing as he closes his eyes - but it will be another 12 hours before Percy is admitted to a ward.
When we see him finally being moved, he is contorted in his bed from the pain, clutching onto a sick bowl.
Dr Paw's first job during his rounds is to check the cubicles to see who he can move off beds.
He has a full waiting room just beyond the doors and four ambulances banked up outside.
A woman in the last cubicle he visits is crying. Dr Paw receives an update from a nurse on her condition and orders some morphine.
"You're in the right place," he tells the patient. "We'll sort out your pain."
Dr Paw tells us: "The people that come in now are sicker than they used to be. And here we are, trying to get them out quicker."
He then moves on to a man who was admitted for a heart attack two days ago but is no longer receiving active treatment. Can he safely be moved, Dr Paw wonders.
"These are the decisions we're being forced to make," he tells the BBC.
"I'm considering moving a heart attack patient to the waiting room so I can have his cubicle."
Another patient Dr Paw saw the previous day is still waiting for a bed in the ward more than 24 hours later.
"It's rubbish. It's not what should happen," Dr Paw says. "People shouldn't be spending 27, 28 hours in an emergency department."
At one point during our time at the hospital we were taken to a bank of screens displaying statistics.
It showed that patients in the emergency department were waiting nearly 30 hours for a bed and there were six ambulances queued up outside. One had been there for four hours.
"It's the worst I've ever seen it," one doctor says.
South Warwickshire Trust has since lifted Tuesday's critical incident declaration - however, staff tell the BBC they still face a similar level of pressure.
When David Lammy is asked about the new government's relations with the incoming US administration, he likes to talk about the dinner he and the prime minister had with Donald Trump in New York last September.
"We had a very good meal," the foreign secretary said on Thursday. "We had a long time to discuss the issues. He was an extremely gracious host, very affable, very warm indeed about our great country."
And throughout a series of media interviews, briefings and a speech at the Foreign Office, Lammy talked up UK-US relations, even daring to speak of a "special relationship", a phrase largely avoided by diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic.
The UK and the US, he said, were "required to work very closely together" on global challenges.
They include challenges such as the wars in Europe and the Middle East and what he called "the growing problems in Sudan". He cited the "close cooperation" between both countries on military and intelligence matters.
But what was striking was how far the foreign secretary was willing to challenge Trump only days before his inauguration.
The president-elect's refusal to rule out military action against Greenland was, Lammy said, an example of his "destabilising" rhetoric. He said Trump was focused on Arctic security but such an attack by one member of Nato on another was "simply not going to happen".
He said Trump was right to ask Europe to do more to defend itself but questioned his call for Nato members to spend 5% of their national income on defence, noting the US was itself spending only 3.38 %.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme earlier in the day, Lammy had cast doubt on Trump's campaign promise of a quick ceasefire in Ukraine.
"I see no evidence that Putin wants to come to the table to negotiate," he said.
"I think the indications are, from what I've seen over the last few days, a slight pushback on this sense that somehow a deal will be achieved on 21 January, I think that's now unlikely. And we're hearing that actually the timetable's moved down somewhat towards Easter."
Lammy played down the influence of Elon Musk, the wealthy ally of Trump who in recent days has personally attacked British ministers on X. He said the tech boss would have only a "domestic portfolio" in the new administration and his role had not come up in talks between British and Trump officials.
The foreign secretary also emphasised the need to engage with China – on trade, climate, health and artificial intelligence - and urged the country "not to throw in its lot" with Russia. This position is at odds with that held by Trump allies who see China already as a key member of an anti-Western axis including Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Lammy calls his approach to foreign policy "progressive realism". He said this means seeking progressive ends while accepting the world as it is.
When applying this framework to Trump, he said he will be guided more by the president-elect's actions than his rhetoric. We shall learn in coming days how far the two remain apart.
And as for that dinner with Trump last autumn, Lammy rarely mentions the fact the meal was almost the cause of a diplomatic upset.
He and Sir Keir Starmer were presented with large plates of Guyanese chicken, somewhat to the dismay of the vegetarian prime minister.
In the national interest, the foreign secretary was obliged to eat more chicken that night than he might have expected.
A judge has thrown out a man's attempt to sue a council to recover from a rubbish tip a Bitcoin hard drive which he says is now worth about £600m.
James Howells had argued that his former partner had mistakenly dumped the hard drive containing a Bitcoin wallet in 2013, and he wanted to access the site and recover the cryptocurrency.
But Newport council asked a High Court judge to strike out Mr Howells' legal action to access the landfill or get £495m in compensation.
Judge Keyser KC said there were no "reasonable grounds" for bringing the claim and "no realistic prospect" of succeeding at a full trial.
During the hearing in December the court heard how Mr Howells had been an early adopter of Bitcoin and had successfully mined the cryptocurrency.
As the value of his missing digital wallet soared, Mr Howells organised a team of experts to attempt to locate, recover and access the hard drive.
He had repeatedly asked permission from the council for access to the site, and had offered it a share of the missing Bitcoin if it was successfully recovered.
Mr Howells successfully "mined" the Bitcoin in 2009 for almost nothing, and says he forgot about it altogether when he threw it out.
The value of the cryptocurrency rose by more than 80% in 2024, and Mr Howells believes his 8,000 bitcoins to now be worth more than £600m.
But James Goudie KC, for the council, argued that existing laws meant the hard drive had become its property when it entered the landfill site. It also said that its environmental permits would forbid any attempt to excavate the site to search for the hard drive.
The offer to donate 10% of the Bitcoin to the local community was encouraging the council to "play fast and loose" by "signing up for a share of the action," said Mr Goudie.
In a written judgement the judge said: "I also consider that the claim would have no realistic prospect of succeeding if it went to trial and that there is no other compelling reason why it should be disposed of at trial."
The landfill holds more than 1.4m tonnes of waste, but Mr Howells said he had narrowed the hard drive's location to an area consisting of 100,000 tonnes.
Mr Howells has speculated that, by next year, the Bitcoin on his hard drive could be worth £1bn.
He told BBC Wales outside the court hearing in Cardiff last December that he believed in his case and was willing to take it all the way to Supreme Court.
Video game giant Ubisoft has announced a further delay to its upcoming Assassin's Creed Shadows.
The long-running series is one of the French publisher's flagship franchises, with recent instalment, Valhalla, reportedly making more than $1bn.
Assassin's Creed Shadows, set in 16th Century Japan, was due to be released last November before an initial delay to February 2025.
Announcing the new release date of 20 March, executive producer Marc-Alexis Coté said a "few additional weeks are needed" to ensure the game's launch goes smoothly.
Players complained that Ubisoft's major 2024 release, Star Wars Outlaws, was launched with bugs and glitches.
The company's bosses told investors the sci-fi tie-in's sales were "softer than expected" and said "learnings" from Outlaws' launch had prompted the original delay to Assassin's Creed Shadows.
In his update, Mr Coté thanked fans for their support and said the extra time would allow the development team to implement "valuable feedback" from gamers.
Assassin's Creed Shadows is seen as an important title for Ubisoft - one of the biggest gaming companies in the world with an estimated 13,000 employees worldwide.
Its other 2024 titles, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown and pirate-themed online game Skull & Bones, were also reported to have fallen below the company's expectations.
The company also discontinued online shooter XDefiant and closed three of its studios.
In a conference call held around the same time as the Assassin's Creed delay was made public, CEO Yves Guillemot told investors Ubisoft was "taking decisive steps" to reshape the company.
It was also looking to "drive significant cost reductions", the meeting heard.
BBC Newsbeat previously spoke to James Batchelor, former editor-in-chief of Gamesindustry.biz, who said the Assassin's Creed series is a "golden goose" for Ubisoft.
He said moving the game from its original November release date meant Ubisoft had missed out on sales from the busy pre-Christmas sales period.
But, he also said it would have faced stiff competition in February - a crowded month for high-profile new releases, with Monster Hunter Wilds, Avowed and Civilization VII also due to come out.
While Ubisoft's 2024 had been "tough", James told Newsbeat that colleagues who'd played preview versions of Assassin's Creed Shadows were impressed with the game.
He also pointed out that its feudal Japan setting was one series fans had been requesting for a long time, and he expected this to drive sales.
"Whether or not it sells quite the levels it would have done in November, or whether it sells as well as they hope. I don't know," he said.
"But of all the things they've put out in the last year and the varied performance they've had, this one has got the strongest chance and the strongest appeal."
Deadly wildfires have devastated parts of the city of Los Angeles and the wider county, destroying many homes and businesses, as well as schools and places of worship.
Here are some of the most striking images of places seen before and after the wildfires tore through them.
This affluent suburb is among those that have been the hardest hit, with many residents being unable to gather much or anything of value before they were had to flee.
Below are images showing the destruction some businesses have suffered.
The Palisades Charter High School is among landmarks in the Pacific Palisades area to have been damaged in the fires.
The well-known school counts celebrities including Will.i.am and Forest Whitaker among its alumni, and has been a filming location for Hollywood hits including Carrie, Teen Wolf and Freaky Friday.
Houses that sit along parts of the major state highway have also been hit by the Palisades fire, including in the city of Malibu.
Satellite imagery below shows what the coastline looked like before and after the fires took hold.
The Eaton Fire has destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses in Altadena, which lies behind the mountains north of Los Angeles.
Below you can see the damage the fire caused to one home, as well as a wider look at the full extent of the damage the neighbourhood has suffered.
In nearby Pasadena, a Jewish temple was among the buildings lost to the Eaton Fire.
According to its website, the temple's congregation has more than 100 years of history in the area.
The Los Angeles wildfires are on track to be among the costliest in US history, with losses already expected to exceed more than $50bn (£40bn).
In a preliminary estimate, private forecaster Accuweather said it expected losses of between $52bn and $57bn as the blazes rip through an area that is home to some of the most expensive property in the US.
The insurance industry is also bracing for a major hit, with analysts from firms such as Morningstar and JP Morgan forecasting insured losses more than $8bn.
Nearly 2,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed in the fires, which has also claimed at least five lives.
With authorities still working to contain the fires, the scope of the losses is still unfolding.
"This is a terrible disaster," said Accuweather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
The 2018 fire that broke out in northern California near the town of Paradise currently ranks as the disaster with highest insured costs, at roughly $12.5bn, according to insurance giant Aon.
That blaze, known as the Camp fire, killed 85 people and displaced more than 50,000.
The high property values in this case mean it is likely to end up as one of the top five costliest wildfires in the US, said Aon, which looks at insured losses.
Nearly 200,000 people in the Los Angeles area are under evacuation orders, with another 180,000 facing warnings.
Even after the situation is under control, Mr Porter said the events could have long-term affects on health and tourism.
It also spells trouble for the insurance industry, which was already in crisis.
Homeowners in the US with mortgages are typically required by banks to have property insurance.
But companies have been hiking prices - or cancelling coverage altogether - in the face of increasing risks of natural disaster such as fires, floods and hurricanes.
As companies stop offering coverage, people are turning in surging numbers to home insurance plans offered by state governments, which are typically more expensive while offering less protection.
In California, the number of policies offered through the state's Fair plan has more than doubled since 2020, from about 200,000 to more than 450,000 in September of last year.
Areas hit by the fires rank as some of the places with highest take-up, according to data from the programme, which was already warning of risks to its financial stability.
Denise Rappmund, a senior analyst at Moody's Ratings, said the fires would have "widespread, negative impacts for the state's broader insurance market".
"Increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability," she said, adding that the state was also facing potential long-term damage to property values and strain to public finances.
此次节目的主要内容:
中国演员王星疑似被拐卖至缅甸诈骗园区一事引发广泛关注后,近日又传出类似案件。据泰国《国家报》(The Nation)报道,泰国警方正在调查中国模特杨泽琪在泰缅边境地区失踪的案件,泰国宋卡府(Songkhla Province)移民警察局局长查查·皮塔尼拉布(Thatchai Pitaneelaboot)表示,此案与王星事件情况相似。
据《香港01》报道,杨泽琪的家人在1月8日晚通过微博求助,称杨泽琪于2024年12月在泰缅边境失联。当时他接到剧组通告,通过线上试戏后于12月20日前往泰国,与剧组汇合后转乘剧组车辆,定位显示他抵达泰缅边境。21日,他向朋友发出求救信息后失联。29日,他曾与母亲视频通话报平安,通话中他身穿黑衣、坐在凳子上,状态异常,眼角有明显伤痕,随后再次失联。对此,杨泽琪的家属也已向中国驻泰国和驻缅甸大使馆寻求协助。
责编:安克; 网编:伍檫愙
据日经网报道,美国当选总统特朗普即将就职之际,日本却罕见透露要在2月邀请中国外交部长王毅访日,为中国国家主席习近平的国事访问做准备,令外界质疑日本是否不再用心经营美日同盟对抗中国的路线。
据法广的消息,石破茂正拟亲笔信函交给习近平。这个作法与2009年奥巴马政府以来,日本首相总是以第一位外国领导人之姿访问美国新任总统出现明显区别。
外界因此进而关注,在去年10月选举中险胜的自民党总裁暨日本首相石破茂,是否正逐渐偏离美日同盟的路线,转而试图改善紧张的中日军事安全关系。
华盛顿智库国防重点(Defense Priorities)军事研究员卡瓦纳(Jennifer Kavanagh)告诉本台,近年日本除了积极参与全球事务,希望扮演更关键的角色外,也和澳大利亚、印度、中东等国家一样寻求“多向结盟”(multi-alignment)战略,同时从单纯聚焦日美关系转而发展日本和美、中关系:“努力通过关系多元化,最大程度地提高战略灵活性”。
专家:石破茂尚未与特朗普建立关系
而这样的战略选择多少与特朗普第一任总统任期,对盟友承诺飘忽不定的立场有关。特朗普第一任总统期间攻击《美日安保条约》不公平,并建议日本和韩国拥有自己的核能力。
卡瓦纳说:“对日本来说,可以做的一件事就是确保与所有邻国建立非常稳固的关系,不仅包括中国,还包括韩国、东南亚、澳大利亚”。
日本前首相安倍晋三分别在2018年(第八次中日韩领导人会议前夕)和2019年访华,并在2020年邀请习近平访日,但因爆发新冠疫情遭到推迟。如果本次石破茂邀请顺利,将是习近平2013年担任领导人以来,首次因双边关系出访日本;习近平上一次访日,是为了参加2019年在大阪举行的二十国集团峰会。
专家认为,其实日本一直在中美两大强权之间寻求平衡,但当前不同之处在于,石破茂似乎尚未找到立足点与特朗普有更深的接触。
美国南加州大学东亚研究中心研究员由香里·伊斯顿(Yukari Easton)去年底在东亚论坛(East Asia Forum)上写道,石破茂曾批评前任首相安倍晋三过于用力经营与特朗普的私交,没把日本塑造成强大的威胁,以便在谈判中取得更多筹码。但“目前为止,石破茂还没有接到超过五分钟的祝贺电话”。此外,石破茂的外交方针,比如重提亚洲版北约和延迟关键的网络防御法案,均显示其在重要议题上的疏离。
华盛顿智库美国企业研究所(AEI)资深研究员库珀(Zack Cooper)则告诉本台,“石破茂的政治地位比安倍晋三弱,所以东京也有些人建议,不值得急于与特朗普会面,等一等也许更好……。我还认为,日本人明白特朗普在很多方面不是传统作风的总统,可能不会花很多时间考虑外国领导人来访的具体顺序”。
库珀表示,尽管安倍晋三成为首位访问特朗普的外国领导人,具有象征意义,但这恐怕已不再是日本的优先事项,而是未来能否与美国展开“具备实质意义的会谈” 。
那中日关系稳固了吗?
2024年底起,中日两国高级官员频繁接触,习近平和王毅的访日计划将恰逢美国当选总统特朗普就职之际。 2024年12月25日,日本外相岩屋毅在北京与中国外长王毅及国务院总理李强会谈后,宣布双方决定放宽旅游签证限制,显示推进双边经济合作与人员交流的意愿;日本国家安全保障局长秋叶刚男也分别在2023年及2024年11月访华与王毅会谈。
不过,中日关系近年受领土主张、区域局势和福岛核废水排放等问题所扰。日方并多次呼吁中国撤销对日本食品的进口限制,以及尽早释放被关押的在华日人。
库珀认为,当前中日两国领导人及高级官员的会谈,仅是“重新接触的开端“,就像“目前中美接触一样,双方只是希望有更好的沟通,而不是达成任何重大交易或新协议”。
至于未来哪些议题可能随之浮上台面,库珀表示,除了经贸关税及钓鱼岛(日称尖阁诸岛)主权等议题外,由于“日本首相石破茂是台湾的坚定支持者”,他在会晤王毅和习近平前后如何谈论台湾问题,以及中方究竟有多大意愿与他进行多大程度的接触,值得后续观察。
在民间交流方面,2023年日本制药商安斯泰来(Astellas Pharma Inc.)一名高管因涉嫌间谍活动在中国被捕,随后遭中国检方正式起诉,这一事件对外国企业产生寒蝉效应;2024年,又接连爆发日本在华居民遭持刀袭击致死或受伤等事件,使得一些日本人不愿在中国旅行或工作。
此外,2024年8月,中国军机首次侵犯日本领空、中国海警船在2024年12月6日驶入冲绳县尖阁诸岛附近海域后,今年1月8日又再度驶入。日本近年来因为这些事件,正不断调整国防方针,增加军费开支。
2024年7月,中国外长王毅在东盟峰会期间告诉时任日本外务大臣上川阳子,中日关系正处于“改善发展的关键时期”。 2024年11月,习近平和日本首相石破茂在秘鲁出席亚太经合组织峰会时,承诺改善关系,目前正处于初期阶段。
责编:李亚千 网编:洪伟
英国工党政府去年7月上任后以“拼经济”为首要任务,然而财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)的经济政策却一直为人诟病。英镑近日暴跌至一年多以来的新低,长期借贷成本更达二十几年来的高位。英国下议院周四(1月9日)就此进行紧急辩论,然而财相却不见影踪。其副手确认,她将继续访问中国。
英国金融市场近日出现“债汇双杀”,为公共财政敲响警钟。下议院周四就此进行紧急辩论,然而在此关键时刻,财政大臣里夫斯却不见影踪,由其副手、财政部首席秘书琼斯(Darren Jones)代为回应议员提问。发起辩论的下议院议员、影子财相斯特莱德(Mel Stride)不禁直言“财相在哪儿?”(Where is the Chancellor?)
缺席国会辩论 财相在哪儿?
早前有报道显示,里夫斯会在本周率领商业代表团访问中国,并和中国副总理何立峰会面,重启英中两国在2019年后停止的年度“英中经济财金对话”( EFD)。
琼斯在会上确认里夫斯会访问中国,强调行此早在数周前订下,对英国贸易和投资尤为重要。
保守党议员奥布莱恩(Neil O’Brien)连番追问,问里夫斯是否已经动身?是否仍会继续访华行程?此刻身在何方?为何不到国会回应议员提问?琼斯未正面回应里夫斯是否已经离开英国,只说她会按计划赴华。对于使议员失望,琼斯就此致歉,但强调有关辩论涉及公共财政及借贷成本,而他正是负责官员,适合就此回应。
议员斥财相“逃往中国”
改革党议员蒂斯(Richard Tice)则表示,英国正面临一场金融危机,问琼斯会否要求财政大臣结束其“荒谬的访华之行”、回国纠正问题。但琼斯明确表示,不会这样做。有议员甚至直指里夫斯不敢面对其财政预算案种下的祸根,因而“逃往中国”(fled to China)。
忧虑英国财政和通胀前景,近日金融市场出现抛售英镑和英国国债的情况。英镑兑所有主要货币均下跌,兑美元汇率更跌超过1%,至2023年11以来的新低,同时英国股市下跌。而10年期和30年期英国国债更分别跃升至2008年和1998年以来的高位,推高英国政府的借贷成本,其上升速度甚至超越政局动荡的邻国法国。
责编:何平 网编:洪伟
A Swiss national arrested in Iran and accused of spying has died in prison, according to Iranian state media.
The man was being held with another inmate at a prison in the eastern city of Semnan when he "committed suicide" on Thursday, Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency said.
The judiciary-run Mizan News Agency said prison officials immediately took action to save the Swiss citizen's life, but their efforts were unsuccessful.
Mizan gave no further detail about the man's identity.
"This morning, a Swiss citizen committed suicide in Semnan prison," a statement on Mizan's website, attributed to Mohammad Sadegh Akbari, Semnan's chief justice, said.
The statement added that he had been "arrested by Iranian security forces for espionage" and the case was "under investigation".
In recent years, Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on charges related to espionage and security.
Switzerland plays an important intermediary role between Washington and Tehran as it represents American interests in Iran and shares messages between the two countries.
国际人权组织保护卫士(Safeguard Defender)近日发布报告称,根据联合国难民署公布的数据统计,自习近平担任中国国家主席以来,越来越多的中国公民采取极端措施逃往外国寻求庇护。截至目前,在习近平任内累计寻求庇护的人数已超过100万人。联合国难民署预测,2024年寻求庇护的中国公民总数将达到176,239人——这将创下历史新高,与2019年疫情前的104,259人相比,增加了169%;与习近平2012年就任时的12,362人相比,增幅更是高达1426%。
报告指出,自习近平掌权以来,寻求庇护人数以创纪录的速度增长,仅2022年的寻求庇护人数,就与胡锦涛10年任期内的总人数相当。目前,寻求庇护者的主要目的地为美国,2021年共有8万多名中国公民向美国申请庇护,其次是澳大利亚,去年有超过1.5万人提出庇护申请。加拿大、巴西、韩国和英国也分别接收了数千名中国寻求庇护者。
责编:安克;网编:伍檫愙
本周四,中国欧盟商会在其网站发布了题为《孤立和多元化:一个世界,两种体系》的报告。报告指出,由于地缘政治紧张、贸易关系恶化、中国国内政策的强化以及日益严格的监管,许多跨国公司被迫将其中国分支的运营从全球体系中剥离出来,通过“孤立化”中国部门,实现在供应链、劳动力、销售和采购职能上的完全本地化,努力成为中国政府和地方客户眼中“值得信赖的伙伴”,运营方式与本土企业几乎无异。
报告强调,这种“孤立化”的运营方式大幅增加了跨国企业的运营成本。为实现“合规”,企业需要重新建立新的运营和生产体系,这可能导致效率降低、创新能力受限以及丧失国际竞争力等问题。此外,即便企业付出巨额成本实现“孤立化”,也无法确保其产品完全满足北京当局的要求和标准。
报告警告称,这种孤立化运营的趋势不仅对外资企业带来挑战,也对中国经济构成风险。在地缘政治紧张局势升级、西方政府强调供应链韧性的背景下,已经有不少外资企业逐步从中国撤出。如果“孤立化”经营的趋势持续加剧,跨国公司在华运营成本过高,可能促使更多外资企业大规模撤离,从而对中国经济造成冲击。
中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)就此在报告中指出:“多数企业出于商业考量,将其中国市场的部分职能甚至整个运营体系本地化。然而,部分企业则完全实现了业务孤立化,这全然背离了正常的商业逻辑,在商业竞争中可能更容易被其竞争对手取而代之,甚至丧失了全球化运营能力。”
责编:安克 网编:洪伟