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UK economy had zero growth between July and September

Getty Images A young Asian woman wearing an apron looking concerned at a laptop screen with a bar restaurant behind herGetty Images

The UK economy had zero growth between July and September, revised official figures show.

Initial figures had suggested the economy had grown by just 0.1% between July and September - and shrank during September itself. But that figure has now been revised down to 0%.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the challenge to fix the economy was "huge" and October's Budget would "deliver sustainable long-term growth, putting more money in people's pockets".

But one of the UK's leading business groups, the CBI said its latest company survey suggested "the economy is headed for the worst of all worlds".

The CBI, which claims to represent 170,000 firms, said companies expect to "reduce both output and hiring" and raise prices as a result of the tax rises announced in the government's Budget.

The UK economy is measured by gross domestic product - a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments and people in the country.

The ONS puts out initial estimates on the UK's economic performance and revises them once it receives more data.

On Monday it also revised down growth figures for April to June to 0.4% from 0.5%.

It said the economy was weaker than initially estimated as bars and restaurants, legal firms and advertising firms performed less well.

France rape trial throws up difficult questions about porn fantasies - and male desire

Getty Images Treated image showing a man and a woman looking to the sideGetty Images

Warning: This story contains descriptions of sexual abuse

The Pelicot rape trial, which ended in France on Thursday, held a terrible fascination for almost every woman I know. As it unfolded in an Avignon court, I found myself following every awful detail, then discussing it with my female friends, my daughters, colleagues, even women in my local book club, as we tried to process what happened.

For nearly a decade, Gisèle Pelicot's husband had been secretly drugging her and inviting men he'd met on the internet to have sex with his "Sleeping Beauty" wife in the marital bedroom while he videoed them.

These strangers, ranging from 22 to 70 years in age, with jobs that included fireman, nurse, journalist, prison warden and soldier, complied with Dominique Pelicot's instructions. Such was their desire for a submissive female body to penetrate, they blithely had sex with a retired grandmother whose heavily sedated body resembled a rag doll.

There were 50 men in court, all living within a 50km (30 mile) radius of Mazan, a small town in southern France where the Pelicots lived. They were, apparently, just like "any other man".

One woman in her 30s told me "When I first read about it, I didn't want to be around men for at least a week, even my fiancé. It just horrified me."

Another in her late 60s, so close to Gisèle Pelicot's age, couldn't stop thinking about what men's minds could be harbouring, even her husband and sons. "Is this just the tip of the iceberg?"

Reuters A courtroom sketch of some of the defendants in the trialReuters
Some of the men on trial at the courthouse in Avignon

As Dr Stella Duffy, 61, an author and therapist, wrote on Instagram on the day the verdict was delivered: "I hope and try to believe #notallmen, but I imagine the wives and girlfriends and best mates and daughters and mothers of Gisèle Pelicot's village thought that too. And now they know different. Every woman I talk to says this case has changed how she views men. I hope it's changed how men view men too."

Now that justice has been done, we can look beyond this monstrous case and ask: where did these men's callous and violent behaviour come from? Could they not see that sex without consent is rape?

But there is a broader question too. What does the fact that so many men in a relatively small area shared this fantasy of extreme domination over a woman say about the nature of male desire?

How the internet changed the norm

It is hard to imagine the scale of the orchestrated rapes and sexual assaults of Ms Pelicot without the internet.

The platform on which Dominique Pelicot advertised for men to rape his wife was an unmoderated French website, which made it easier to bring together people who shared sexual interests, with no holds barred, than it would have been in the days before the internet. (It has now been closed down.)

One of Ms Pelicot's lawyers likened the site to a "murder weapon", telling the court that without it the case "would never have reached such proportions".

But the internet has played a role in gradually changing attitudes to sex in consensual and non-abusive settings too, normalising what many might have once seen as extreme.

Getty Images Close up of Gisele PelicotGetty Images
Gisèle Pelicot said after the verdicts that she wanted to 'think of the unrecognised victims whose stories remain in the shadows'

In the shift from old school skin mags and blue movies bought in a murky Soho sex shop to modern-day websites like PornHub, which had 11.4 billion mobile visits globally in the month of January 2024 alone, the boundaries of porn have expanded hugely. Adding in more and more extreme or niche activity ramps up the expectation, so "vanilla" sex may become mundane.

According to a survey of UK online users in January 2024, almost one in 10 respondents aged between 25 and 49 years reported watching porn most days, the great majority of them male.

Twenty-four-year-old university graduate Daisy told me that most people she knows watch porn, including her. She prefers to use a feminist site whose search filters include "passionate" and "sensual", as well as "rough". But some of her male friends say they no longer watch porn "as they couldn't have a nice time having sex because of watching too much porn when they were just kids".

A 2023 study for the children's commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, found that a quarter of 16 to 21-year-olds first saw pornography on the internet while still at primary school.

At the time Ms de Souza said: "The adult content which parents may have accessed in their youth could be considered 'quaint' in comparison to today's world of online pornography."

Does porn really shape attitudes?

Children who regularly viewed porn on mobiles before puberty inevitably grow up with different sexual expectations than those aroused by Playboy in the 20th century.

While no direct causal link has been established, there is substantial evidence of an association between the use of pornography and harmful sexual attitudes and behaviours towards women.

According to government research before the Covid-19 pandemic: "There is evidence that use of pornography is associated with greater likelihood of desiring or engaging in sexual acts witnessed in porn, and a greater likelihood of believing women want to engage in these specific acts."

Some of those acts may involve aggressive, dominating behaviour such as face slapping, choking, gagging and spitting. Daisy told me: "Choking has become normalised, routine, expected, like neck-kissing. With the last person I was seeing, I told him from the start that I wasn't into choking and he was fine with that."

But she believes that not all women will speak out. "And in my experience most men don't want a woman to be dominant in the bedroom. That's where they want to have the power."

Forty years older than Daisy, Suzanne Noble has written about her own sexual adventures and now has a website and podcast called Sex Advice for Seniors. She believes that the availability of porn that depicts rape fantasies normalises an act that is rooted in violence and depicts rape as an activity women crave.

"There's simply not enough education about the difference between re-enacting a fantasy that involves a pseudo-rape, with a completely non-consensual version of the same," she argues.

From small ads to real life

Just as the internet brought porn out of backstreets and into bedrooms, it has also facilitated easier access to events in real life. Previously people into, say, S&M (sadomasochism), might have connected through small ads in the back of "contact" magazines, using Post Office boxes rather than mail to their own homes. It was a very slow and arduous way of setting up a sexual encounter. Now it's far easier to connect with those groups online then plan to meet in person.

In the UK, it has become mainstream to find love and relationships through dating apps, and so too is it easier to connect with people who wish to try out particular sexual kinks, with a plethora of social apps such as Feeld, which is designed for people to explore "desire outside of existing blueprints". Its online glossary includes a list of 31 desires, including polyamory, bondage and submission.

Albertina Fisher is an online psychosexual therapist who, in the course of her job, talks to her clients about their sexual fantasies. "There is nothing wrong with having a sexual fantasy — the difference is if fantasy becomes behaviour without consent," she says.

Reuters A woman holds a sign saying Not All Men but Always a ManReuters
Demonstrators hold signs at a protest in support of rape victims and Ms Pelicot

Male and female fantasies are different she tells me, "but they very often include submission and domination. The key thing about sexual preferences such as BDSM (bondage, discipline or domination, sadism, and masochism) is that it is safe, sane and consensual. What two people want to do together is absolutely fine." This, she stresses, is the case when both consent.

All of this is, of course, entirely separate to the Pelicot case. "That is sexual violence," she says. "And it's extremely distressing that this can happen within what appeared to be a loving relationship. Acting out a fantasy without consent is an extreme form of narcissism.

"With the partner incapacitated, all their needs are denied. So you have a fantasy of a woman who you don't have to worry about pleasing."

Questions around desire

A key and problematic aspect of the whole question of fantasy is desire. In the post-Freudian age it has become a truism that desires should not be repressed. And much of the liberation theory of the 1960s emphasised self-actualisation through the realisation of sexual desire.

But male desire has become an increasingly contested concept, not least because of the questions of power and domination often entangled within it.

The men who stood trial in the Pelicot case struggled to see themselves as perpetrators. Some argued that they assumed Ms Pelicot had consented, or that they were taking part in a libertine sex game. As many of them saw it, they were simply pursuing their desires.

Getty Images A defendant in a mask walks through a crowd of journalistsGetty Images
A defendant arrives at the courthouse in Avignon

There is a dark borderline where a very basic form of heterosexual male desire - (or the primal urge to have sex with a woman, or women, in the most uncomplicated manner) - can grow into a shared endeavour, creating an esprit de corps of boundary-pushing that may pay little heed or care to the female experience.

This perhaps explains why an OnlyFans performer, Lily Phillips, recently drew a huge queue of participants in her quest to have sex with 100 men in one day.

The tendency to objectify women may in some cases also develop into a desire to annihilate the whole question of female desire, let alone agency.

Obviously male desire takes many forms, most of an entirely healthy nature, but it has traditionally been constrained by cultural limits. Now those limits have shifted radically in the UK and elsewhere in the West, and the underlying conviction that the realisation of desire is an act of self-liberation amounts to a potent and sometimes troubling combination.

The appeal of Andrew Tate

Andre de Trichateau, a therapist based in South Kensington, London, brought up the appeal of masculinist influencers such as Andrew Tate, a self-proclaimed "misogynist", who has 10.4 million followers on X.

Mr de Trichateau says that he has encountered men feeling demeaned and displaced by the rise of feminism. "Some men don't know who to be," he says. "Men are socialised to be dominant but also expected to be in touch with their emotions, able to show vulnerability.

"This confusion can lead to anger, directed to the feminist movement, and [in turn this can lead them to] people such as Tate."

With a 60% male client base, Mr de Trichateau observes that "men can be socialised to view power and dominance as part of their identity".

"This is not to justify anything like the Pelicot case," he continues, "but objectively I can see that such behaviour is an escape from powerlessness and inadequacy. It's tantalising and forbidden.

"The case is disturbing because it shows the extremities that people will go to."

He also pointed out that online groups such as the one Mr Pelicot used can be very powerful. "In a group you are accepted. Ideas are validated. One person says its OK then everyone will go along with it."

EPA Photograph of Andrew Tate smiling and wearing a purple blazerEPA
Andrew Tate, who was previously banned from Twitter for saying women should "bear responsibility" for being sexually assaulted. He has since been reinstated

Many of the conversations during and since the Pelicot trial have focused on how to make the distinction between consensual and non-consensual sex and whether it should be better defined in law - but the problem is that what consent amounts to is a complex question.

As 24-year-old Daisy sees it, some women of her age tend to go along with men's sexual preferences regardless of their own feelings. "They think something is hot if the man they are with thinks it's hot."

So, if heterosexual men, in particular, really are increasingly taking their sexual cues from pornography, then that prompts further questions about the changing shape of male desire. And if young women can feel that the price of intimacy is to go along with those desires, however extreme, then arguably consent is not a black and white matter.

Ultimately, there may be widespread relief that the Pelicot case is over and that justice was served, but it leaves behind even more questions - questions that, in the spirit of an amazingly strong French woman, are perhaps best discussed out in the open.

Lead image credit: Getty

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Trump threatens to try to regain control of Panama Canal

Getty Images Donald trump in front of a podium with the Turning Point USA logo on itGetty Images
Trump made his remarks in front of thousands at Turning Point's annual conference, one of the country's largest gatherings of conservative activists

President-elect Donald Trump has demanded Panama reduce fees on the Panama Canal or return it to US control, accusing the central American country of charging "exorbitant prices" to American shipping and naval vessels.

"The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, highly unfair," he told a crowd of supporters in Arizona on Sunday.

"This complete rip-off of our country will immediately stop," he said, referring to when he takes office next month.

His remarks prompted a quick rebuke from Panama's president, who said "every square metre" of the canal and surrounding area belong to his country.

President José Raúl Mulino added that Panama's sovereignty and independence were non-negotiable.

Trump made the comments to supporters of Turning Point USA, a conservative activist group that provided significant support to his 2024 election campaign.

It was a rare example of a US leader saying he could push a country to hand over territory - although he did not explain how he would do so - and a sign of how American foreign policy and diplomacy may shift once he enters the White House following his inauguration on 20 January.

Trump's comments followed a similar post a day earlier in which he said the Panama Canal was a "vital national asset" for the US.

If shipping rates are not lowered, Trump said on Sunday, "we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, quickly and without question".

The 51-mile (82km) Panama Canal cuts across the central American nation and is the main link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

It was built in the early 1900s and the US maintained control over the canal zone until 1977, when treaties gradually ceded the land back to Panama. After a period of joint control, Panama took sole control in 1999.

Up to 14,000 ships cross the canal per year, including container ships carrying cars, natural gas and other goods, and military vessels.

As well as Panama, the president-elect also took aim at Canada and Mexico over what he called unfair trade practices. He accused them of allowing drugs and immigrants into the US, although he called Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum a "wonderful woman".

Trump hits the usual themes

Trump made his remarks in front of thousands at Turning Point's annual conference, one of the country's largest gatherings of conservative activists.

Turning Point poured huge resources into get-out-the-vote efforts in swing states designed to bolster Trump and other Republicans during the election campaign.

It was his first speech since a deal passed Congress this week to keep the US government open, after several provisions were removed including one that would have increased the country's debt ceiling.

Trump had supported raising the debt ceiling, which restricts the amount of money the US government can borrow.

But his speech on Sunday avoided that issue entirely, instead recapping his election victory and hitting on themes – including immigration, crime and foreign trade – that were mainstays of his campaign.

He did, however, mention Elon Musk.

"You know, they're on a new kick," he said. "All the different hoaxes. The new one is that President Trump has ceded the presidency to Elon Musk."

"No, no, that's not happening," he said. "He's not gonna be president."

Several speakers here at the conference were critical of government spending and of politicians in both parties – however the divisions inside the Republican Party which have played out in Congress in recent days were mostly muted.

To lie or not to lie? Christmas etiquette unwrapped

Getty Images A woman in a pink long-sleeved shirt with black spots opens a gift and holds up two black and white stripy socks from it. She looks unhappy at the socks. She has long brown hair and brown eyes.Getty Images

Whether it's opening presents or the long-awaited Christmas dinner, the festive season involves plenty of things that could go wrong.

It's the little things that count at this time of year - and your etiquette is no exception.

The BBC has chatted with experts about potentially awkward moments you might face over the next few days, so you can try to avoid them.

A common festive issue is getting a present you do not like. Is it best to tell the person who gave it to you, or lie that you love it?

It depends on how well you know the person who gave you the gift, according to Rupert Wesson from professional coaching company Debrett's.

To lie - or not to lie

"There are some people [to whom] you can say the gift isn't for you, and for some you have to smile and tell them a little white lie that you like it," he tells the BBC.

But whatever you do, "don't make a funny face" at the gift when you open it, warns etiquette coach Laura Windsor.

"Just pretend you do [like it], and make a little comment on how useful the gift will be," she says. "The etiquette is always to be kind."

Both etiquette coaches say it's fine to give an unwanted present to charity or re-gift it for someone else in the future.

Mr Wesson suggests you should "always" keep a gift receipt when buying a present just in case - and he has these words of reassurance: "We can't all be perfect at buying exactly the right thing."

Getty Images A woman has her hands resting on her forehead as she looks at bills on an oak table and a black laptop next to her. She has curly brown hair tied up on top of her head and is wearing a beige jumper. In the background, there is a Christmas tree and tinsel adorning shelves.Getty Images

Open up about the cost

While the cost of turkey and Brussels sprouts have gone down this year, the price of root vegetables have gone up and some families are feeling the pinch this winter.

Ms Windsor advises that you can make a "Christmas pot" that everyone contributes to ahead of the big day.

Alternatively, she says you could ask each guest - or family member - to buy an item of food or drink each.

"There's no shame in this day and age in saying: 'I'm getting people together for Christmas, would you be able to provide this?'," Mr Wesson adds.

Stay upbeat - and avoid certain subjects

Sometimes petty arguments can flare up when the whole family is together - perhaps having eaten or drank too much.

Ms Windsor says "don't take it personally, just try to smooth it over," adding that you should not give people the "power to keep them complaining".

She advises to try and change the topic of conversation, but to avoid difficult subjects.

"You've got to keep the conversation upbeat."

If there are any existing tensions among the guests ahead of 25 December, Mr Wesson suggests attempting to address them upfront when you're putting together your plans before Christmas Day.

"Almost make the invitation [to guests or extended family] conditional that someone isn't going to kick off," he says.

Getty Images An unhappy couple sit at a festive table ignoring each other. The table has a turkey, lettuce, tomatoes, and wine on the table. There is a sofa behind them and a Christmas tree in the right corner decorated with golden lights and baubles and also red baubles. The man has short brown hair and wears black-rimmed glasses and a brown jumper with two red and white stripes. The woman has black hair and is wearing an orange jumper.Getty Images

Is it possible to say 'thank you' too much?

Ms Windsor advises against saying "thank you" to the host too much as it "loses its value".

She suggests showing your appreciation to the host in other ways, including offering to help them with anything, bringing a gift for them - such as a bottle of wine or a plant - and mingling with other guests.

"Mix it up a bit by complimenting them on the quality of the food," Mr Wesson says.

"Appreciation of how good the food is goes a long way."

Both etiquette experts advise sending a thank you note to the host after Christmas Day which is something that Mr Wesson calls "the gold standard of thank yous".

Be upfront about dietary requirements

If you have dietary requirements, such as being vegetarian or vegan, let whoever is hosting your Christmas dinner know ahead of time and not on 25 December, Ms Windsor stresses.

"It's about prevention, preventing discord - everything has to be organised beforehand," she says.

Mr Wesson adds: "It does fall to the host to really identify what the requirements are and then the host can plan."

Ms Windsor says that if there is any tension between people about the dietary requirements, "be empathetic" but stop the conversation.

"If they make a non-cordial remark, don't take it to heart."

Getty Images A person wearing a orange jumper with red patterns pour gravy on to a whie plate. The plate has roast potatoes, turkey, and pigs in blankets on it. In front of them is serving dishes and there are two red and gold Christmas crackers on either side of them.Getty Images

The Christmas dinner rules

If your stomach is growling for Christmas dinner and you're growing impatient at how long it's taking to cook, Mr Wesson suggests you could offer to help.

"Then you're going to find the lay of the land and maybe suggest we can share something [to eat ahead of Christmas dinner]," he says.

But when you're finally tucking into the dinner, what do you do if you don't like it?

Say "yes" when asked if you're enjoying the food, Ms Windsor says.

"If you don't want to eat it, leave it," she adds - and you could always just say you've "had enough" to eat.

Mr Wesson advises to "try and draw as little attention" as possible to the fact you are not eating the meal.

To prevent this situation happening, try to see if the host will let everyone plate up their own food and then "don't pile too much on" in case you dislike it.

What to do if cards and gifts arrive after Christmas

Getty Images A woman in a festive jumper that is blue, red and white is signing for a parcel at a door. A deliveryman, dressed in a black coat and baseball cap, is holding the parcel.Getty Images

Work, childcare, school - lots of things in life can get in the way and cause you to miss the cut-off date for sending Christmas cards and presents in time for 25 December.

Ms Windsor says organisation is "very, very important" because it shows that "you've put a lot of thought and put in the time and effort to make sure they get it in time for Christmas".

However, she says that you have to "take into account people's daily situation".

Mr Wesson says that "better late than never is the way ahead" but advises people to send a message to whoever the card or present is addressed to, letting them know it is on the way and apologise for the lateness.

'The golden rule'

Christmas Day all comes down to preparation - both organising the day and planning around family relationships, Mr Wesson says.

"It's trying to expect the best but also accept the possibility things might go a little awry," he says.

"Often these things aren't really that serious and often doesn't ruin the whole day."

"The golden rule: treat others as you'd like to be treated," Ms Windsor adds. "You won't go wrong with that."

No 'quick fix' for Tories, says Kemi Badenoch

Today's Amol Rajan presses Kemi Badenoch on policy timeline

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has insisted she will not be rushed into policy positions, claiming there is no "quick fix" following the party's defeat in July's general election.

Badenoch became the party's sixth leader in less than nine years when she was elected at the start of November.

In an interview with BBC Radio 4's Today programme, she said the public "kicked out" the Conservatives because the party was not trusted and did not deliver, adding building trust is "something that takes a while".

Badenoch also dismissed concerns that her approach of not pinning down policy positions could leave a vacuum that might be filled by Reform UK.

Speaking to Amol Rajan, Badenoch said: "Reform is saying stuff because it hasn't thought it all through. You can give easy answers if you haven't thought it all through.

"I do the thinking and what people are going to get with new leadership under me is thoughtful Conservatism, not knee-jerk analysis."

"We are about what we are for, not just what we are against," she said earlier in the interview.

Badenoch said she would not "rush out" policy positions within six weeks and people would need to be "patient", but that she wanted to ensure people could believe she was telling the truth so she could earn their trust.

In response, Reform leader Nigel Farage said the Conservative leader "doesn't understand that the level of betrayal means that the Tory brand is broken. She personally bears heavy responsibility for this".

During the leadership contest, Badenoch deliberately avoided specific policy positions, focusing instead on Conservative "principles".

But some in the party - including Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen - have warned against leaving a void on key issues such as migration that could be filled by Reform.

Houchen told the BBC this month there was a "big opportunity" for the Tories because Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had "left the field" on the issue of migration, and called for the party to put forward a "sensible narrative".

'Let people down'

In the interview, Badenoch acknowledged again that her party had "let people down" in the area of migration.

She said the numbers were too high, having previously pledged to put a cap on arrivals into the UK – though she has not specified what level she would consider acceptable.

Net migration hit a record in the year to June 2023 - with the difference between those arriving in the UK and leaving standing at 906,000 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The net figure dropped to 728,000 in the year to June 2024.

The previous Conservative government's key migration policy was the Rwanda deportation scheme designed specifically to deter small boat crossings.

No flights were able to take off to the east African country before July's election after numerous legal challenges, and Labour swiftly scrapped the scheme after winning power.

The new government has focused on tackling the criminal gangs involved in people smuggling, with Sir Keir announcing an extra £75m to go to policing UK borders in November.

At a press conference last month, Badenoch said the Conservatives still believed a "deterrent" was necessary but did not commit to a revival of the Rwanda scheme.

In the Today interview, Badenoch also acknowledged the local elections scheduled for May next year would be difficult for her party, but said it was a marathon not a sprint.

She said: "The Conservative Party is under changed leadership and I think that the voters will start to see that, but it's going to be slow and steady. It's the tortoise strategy, not the hare."

Musk 'challenge'

Farage told the BBC last week that Reform was in "open negotiations" with US billionaire Elon Musk about donations to the party.

Mr Musk will hold a role within the US government from January with President-elect Donald Trump appointing him as lead for the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge).

Asked whether she was concerned about the prospect of Mr Musk donating to Reform, Badenoch downplayed the possibility it would happen but said she "believes in competition".

She said: "So I think that if Elon Musk is giving a party, a competitor party money, then that is a challenge for me to make sure that I raise the same."

She said it might be "counterproductive" for Reform, claiming people in the UK "don't necessarily like to see politics being bought".

'I was raped by Assad's thugs – but I'm no longer afraid to show my face'

BBC René Shevan smiles as he poses for a photoBBC
René says he is now happy to be photographed "because the republic of fear is gone"

It belonged to his grandmother. Something solid. A thing to hold in his hands, and run his fingers across, and trace the path of memory. A small thing of beauty, inlaid with a delicate mosaic.

René opens the music box, and a tinkling music begins to play, the same song heard long ago in his Damascus sitting room.

"This is all I have left of my home," he says.

Everything about this young man suggests gentleness. René Shevan is short in height, slender and speaks softly.

All week his emotions have gone back and forth. Joy at the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Heartbreak at the memories it has triggered of his months in Syrian prisons.

"There was a woman. I still have her image here in my head. She was standing in the corner, and she was pleading…it's clear that they raped her.

"There was a boy. He was 15 or 16 years old. They were raping him, and he was calling his mother. He was saying, 'Mama... my mother... Mom.'"

There was his own rape and sexual abuse.

When I first met René, he had just escaped from Syria. That was 12 years ago. He sat opposite me, shaking and in tears, terrified of showing his face on camera.

The secret police had picked him up because he had gone to a pro-democracy demonstration. They also knew that he was gay.

Three of them gang raped René. He begged for mercy, but they laughed.

"Nobody heard me. I was alone," he recalled back in 2012.

They told him this was what he got for demanding freedom. Another officer abused him every day. For six months he suffered this abuse.

When images appeared on television this week of prisoners walking free in Damascus, René was carried back to images of his own.

"I'm not in prison now, I'm here. But I saw myself in the photos and the images of the people in Syria. I was so happy for them, but I saw myself there... I saw the old version of me there. I saw when they raped me, and when they tortured me. I saw everything in flashback."

He is weeping and we stop the interview. A few minutes, he says.

I look at his sitting room wall.

There is a photo of his ruined home in Syria, one of René running in a marathon in Utrecht. Then an image of the Jesuit priest, Father Frans Van Der Lugt, 75, a psychotherapist and ecumenical activist in Syria, until he was assassinated in 2014.

It was Father Van Der Lugt who told René - struggling in a deeply conservative environment - that he was a normal human being, that Jesus loved him whatever his sexual orientation was.

René takes a glass of water, then asks to continue our conversation.

Why has he agreed to show his face in front of a camera now, I wondered?

"Because the republic of fear is gone. Because I am I'm not scared of them anymore. Because Assad is a refugee in Moscow. Because all the criminals in Syria ran away. Because Syria returned to all Syrian people," he replies.

"I hope we will be able to live as a people in freedom, in equality. I'm so proud of myself as a Syrian, Dutch, as LGBT."

That doesn't mean he feels confident about living in Syria as a gay person just yet.

Under the Assad regime, homosexual acts were criminalised.

The country's new rulers have fundamentalist religious roots and have been implicated in violence and persecution against gay people.

"There are many Syrian LGBT who fought," René says.

"They were part of the revolution, and they lost their life. [The Syrian regime] killed them just because they were LGBT, and because they were part of the revolution."

René tells me he is "realistic" about the prospect of change. He is also concerned that all religious and ethnic groups - including the Kurds - are given protection.

Getty Images Some Syrian refugees have started to return home from neighbouring countriesGetty Images
Some Syrian refugees have started to return home from neighbouring countries

René is among around six million Syrians who fled the country and found safety either in neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey - the majority - or further afield in Europe.

Several European countries have already paused asylum applications from Syrians, following the overthrow of the Assad regime. International human rights groups have criticised the move as premature.

There are an estimated one million Syrians in Germany. Among them, a remarkable disabled Kurdish girl I first met in August 2015, when she had joined a vast column of people who had landed on the Greek island of Lesbos.

She travelled on through Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria on her way north.

To reach Europe from northern Syria, Nujeen had crossed mountains, rivers and the sea - her sister, Nisreen, pushing the wheelchair.

"I want to be an astronaut, and maybe meet and alien. And I want to meet the Queen," she said.

I crouched beside her on a dusty road, where thousands of asylum seekers lay exhausted in the midday heat. Her good humour and hopefulness were infectious.

This was a girl who taught herself fluent English by watching American television programmes. Nujeen grew up in Aleppo and then, as the war escalated, she went to her family's hometown of Kobane, a Kurdish stronghold which subsequently came under attack from the Islamic State (IS) group.

I meet her now in the bustling Neumarkt Square in Cologne, surrounded by Christmas market stalls where locals eat sausage and drink mulled wine, and the dramas of Syria seem far away.

But not for Nujeen.

All week she has been up watching television, long after the rest of the family has gone to bed. No matter that she has an exam for her business administration course. She will manage.

Never again, Nujeen understands, will there be a moment quite like the fall of Assad, a moment of such singular hope.

Nujeen was a teenager when she fled with her family from northern Syria. She has settled in Germany
Nujeen was a teenager when she fled with her family from northern Syria and has settled in Germany

"Nothing lasts forever. Darkness is followed by dawn," she says.

"I knew that I would never come back to a Syria that had Assad as president, and that we would never have the chance to be a better nation with that man in charge. We knew that we would never find peace unless he's gone. And now with that chapter over, I think the real challenge begins."

Like René, she wants a country that is tolerant of diversity and cares for those with disabilities.

"I don't want to go back to a place where there is no lift and only stairs up to an apartment on the fourth floor."

As a Kurd, she is well versed in her people's experience of suffering in the region.

Now, as the Kurdish forces are forced to pull out of cities in the oil producing north, Nujeen sees the danger posed by a new regime that is backed by Turkey.

"We know these people that came into power now. We know the countries and the powers that are backing them, and they're not exactly fans of Kurds. They do not exactly love us. That's our biggest worry right now."

There is also the fear of a potential regrouping of IS if Syria's new leaders cannot achieve stability in the country.

There are constant calls to family still living in the Kurdish areas.

"They are anxious and worried about the future as we all are," says Nujeen.

"We never stop calling, and we are always worried if they don't pick up after the first ring. There's a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen next".

The uncertainty is amplified by the change in asylum policy in Europe.

Still, this is a young woman whose experience of life - the experience of serious disability since birth, witnessing the terrors of war, travelling across the Middle East and Europe to safety - has created a capacity for hope.

In the near decade that I have known her, it is undimmed. The fall of Assad has only deepened her faith in Syria and its people.

"There are many people who are waiting to see Syria fall into some kind of an abyss," she says.

"We are not people who hate or envy or want to want to eliminate each other. We are people who were raised to be afraid of each other. But our default setting is that we love and accept who we are."

"We can and will be a be a better nation - a nation of love, acceptance and peace, not one of chaos, fear and destruction."

There are many hearts in Syria and beyond who will be hoping she is right.

'It's pure beauty' - Italy's largest medieval mosaics restored

Reuters The apse of Monreale's cathedral in Sicily, showing a detailed mosaic of Christ and other religious symbology in mostly gold, with scaffolding in the foreground. Reuters
The Monreale cathedral was declared a Unesco World Heritage Site in 2015, and has recently undergone extensive restoration

On a hill overlooking the city of Palermo, in Sicily, sits a lesser-known gem of Italian art: the cathedral of Monreale.

Built in the 12th century under Norman rule, it boasts Italy's largest Byzantine-style mosaics, second in the world only to those of Hagia Sophia in Istanbul.

Now, this Unesco World Heritage site has undergone an extensive restoration to bring it back to its former glory.

The Monreale mosaics were meant to impress, humble and inspire the visitor who walked down the central nave, following the fashion of Constantinople, the capital of the surviving Roman empire in the east.

They span over 6,400 square meters and contain around 2.2kg of solid gold.

Reuters View of the central nave of Monreale's cathedralReuters
In Byzantine art, the gold symbolises the divine

The restoration lasted over a year, and in that time the cathedral was turned into a bit of a building site, with a maze of scaffolds set up on the altar and transept.

Local experts from the Italian Ministry of Culture led a series of interventions, starting with the removal of a thick layer of dust that had accumulated on the mosaics over the years.

Then they repaired some of the tiles that had lost their enamel and gold leaf, making them look like black spots from down below.

Finally, they intervened in the areas where the tiles were peeling off the wall and secured them.

Working on the mosaics was a challenge and a big responsibility, says Father Nicola Gaglio.

He has been a priest here for 17 years and has followed the restoration closely, not unlike an apprehensive dad.

"The team approached this work almost on their tiptoes," he tells me.

"At times, there were some unforeseen issues and they had to pause the operations while they found a solution.

"For example, when they got to the ceiling, they realised that in the past it had been covered with a layer of varnish that had turned yellowish. They had to peel it off, quite literally, like cling film."

Zumtobel The cathedral's old lighting system has also been replaced Zumtobel
The cathedral's old lighting system has also been replaced

The mosaics were last partly restored in 1978 , but this time the intervention had a much wider scope and it included replacing the old lighting system.

"There was a very old system. The light was low, the energy costs were through the roof and in no way it made justice to the beauty of the mosaics," says Matteo Cundari.

He's the Country Manager of Zumtobel, the firm that was tasked with installing the new lights.

"The main challenge was to make sure we'd highlight the mosaics and we'd create something that answers to the various needs of the cathedral," he adds.

"We also wanted to create a completely reversible system, something that could be replaced in 10 or 15 years without damaging the building."

Zumtobel A second restoration will focus on the central naveZumtobel
A second restoration will focus on the central nave

This first tranche of works cost 1.1 million euros. A second one, focussing on the central nave, is being planned next.

I ask Fr Gaglio what it was like to see the scaffolding finally come off and the mosaics shine in their new light. He laughs and shrugs.

"When you see it, you're overwhelmed with awe and you can't really think of anything. It's pure beauty," he says.

"It's a responsibility to be the keeper of such world heritage. This world needs beauty, because it reminds us of what's good in humanity, of what it means to be men and women."

绿色创变先锋马军:环境大数据可以赋能企业转型

“环境问题规模巨大,成因复杂,解决需要公众广泛参与,而深度参与的前提是环境信息公开。”

“我们负责任地使用数据,真正服务于公共权益,我们不是要打垮企业,而是赋能企业,善用数据对抗共同的敌人——污染。”

“我们不要忘记当初是从怎样困难的环境中走过来的,空气、水环境已经取得了巨大的成果,要借助新质生产力、数字化解决方案,高效、低成本地维持这些成果。”

南方周末记者 黄思卓

责任编辑:曹海东

公众环境研究中心主任,蔚蓝地图创始人马军。资料图片

“他曾在媒体工作。1990年代就关注环境议题,出版过《中国水危机》一书。

他一直是建言者。几乎每天都发微博,微博粉丝超过了160万;是记者们最爱的采访对象。

他让企业害怕。从重金属污染到绿色供应链管理,他死磕全球知名企业。但他说,‘我们针对的从来不是企业,而是污染本身’。

他让企业行动。引领机构追踪着近两千万家企业的环境表现,监管记录总数超321万条。

他先于大多数人呼吁信息公开。开发的中国首个公益环境数据库,收录了31省区、337地级市的各类环境信息。

他带动了普通人分享数据。开发的‘蔚蓝地图’App数据品类达到一百多类,除了晒蓝天、拍污染,还能快速了解水质、土壤、垃圾、生态、光伏等内容。

他拿奖无数,却一直谦虚好学。

他就是——公众环境研究中心主任,蔚蓝地图创始人马军。”

2024年11月26日,南方周末2024绿色创变者大会上,从1990年代起就关注环境议题的前记者马军被评为“绿色创变先锋”。

从2000条环境信息收集起步,到每天追踪百万级别数据,马军创办的公众环境研究中心(IPE)见证了中国的环境信息公开的历程。这些数据犹如传说中善辨曲直的异兽,让企业害怕,也迫使企业行动起来,拿出科学有效的解决方案,对抗共同的敌人——污染。

如何负责任地使用环境信息公开数据?如何通过数字化解决方案协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长?南方周末专访了“绿色创变先锋”马军。

信息公开是公众参与的前提

南方周末:2006年你成立IPE之时,中国环境信息公开做得如何?

马军:当时很多地区环境污染严重,但环境信息公开刚刚起步,公开的监测和监管数据还很有限。以企业环境违规信息为例,2006年我们收集到的记录不到2000条,相较之下,现在我们每天收集的数据是百万级别的。

除了数据不全面之外,及时性、完整性也有限,比如纳入空气污染指数的评价因子,就缺少了PM2.5和臭氧,而且只公布日均值,市民无法像现在这样

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校对:吴依兰

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2万亿元化债地图:江苏占12.6%,广东上海未发

一地再融资专项债的额度,与其隐性债务规模有关。目前江苏占了全国的12.6%。31个省级行政区中,仅有广东、上海未发行,因为已无隐债。

北方一位城投公司高管透露,他所在的区县获得了1.5亿元左右的再融资专项债,债券资金已经到了市里,暂未下发至城投平台。

受访者近期调研发现,有城投公司未计划提前偿还隐性债务。那么,当地已发行的再融资专项债和隐性债务,财政需同时付息。

南方周末记者 吴超

责任编辑:张玥

根据三年6万亿元化债资金计算,江苏一地便占到了12.6%。视觉中国/图

根据三年6万亿元化债资金计算,江苏一地便占到了12.6%。视觉中国/图

2024年12月18日,中国债券信息网显示,北京成功发行3笔再融资专项债,共计47亿元,将用于置换隐性债务。

至此,全国2024年的2万亿元再融资专项债发行完毕。

一个多月前,全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案》,将增加6万亿元地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务。这6万亿元,均属专项债。

11月8日,财政部部长蓝佛安在新闻发布会上解释,6万亿元债务限额,将分三年安排,2024年至2026年,每年2万亿元,支持地方用于置换各类隐性债务。

隐性债务,指地方政府在法定政府债务限额之外,直接或者承诺以财政资金偿还,以违法提供担保等方式举借的债务。举债主体通常是地方城投公司。与政府债务一样,地方政府需承担隐性债务的还款责任。

此后,29个省(自治区、直辖市)陆续披露再融资专项债发行情况,目前仅有上海、广东两地未发行。

北方某地一位城投公司高管告诉南方周末记者,他所在的区县获得了1.5亿元左右的再融资专项债,债券资金已经到了市里,暂未下发至城投平台。

根据企业预警通数据,此次2万亿元化债资金,江苏获得2511亿元,是29个地区中最多的;北京最少,仅为47亿元。

北方某地一位财政局官员向南方周末记者介绍,当地要求在2024年12月31日前,将获得的再融资专项债置换完毕。

隐债越多,额度越高

地方政府债券分为一般债和专项债,通常由省级政府部门代为发行。

一般债投向没有收益的公益性项目,主要以一般公共预算收入还本付息。专项债则投向具备收益的公益性项目,以项目对应的政府性基金收入或专项收入还本付息。再融资专项债,就是用于借新还旧的专项债。

专项债的好处之一,是不纳入财政赤字。目前,专项债已成为主要的政府债券。根据财政部数据,截至2024年10月末,全国地方政府债务余额45.3万亿元,专项债占比63.3%。(详见南方周末报道《28万亿元,财政“当红工具”专项债的成长与烦恼》)

将专项债用于置换隐性债务,意味着其使用范围扩大。

粤开证券研究院院长罗志恒向南方周末记者解释,通过

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校对:星歌

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'I was raped by Assad's thugs – but I'm no longer afraid to show my face'

BBC René Shevan smiles as he poses for a photoBBC
René says he is now happy to be photographed "because the republic of fear is gone"

It belonged to his grandmother. Something solid. A thing to hold in his hands, and run his fingers across, and trace the path of memory. A small thing of beauty, inlaid with a delicate mosaic.

René opens the music box, and a tinkling music begins to play, the same song heard long ago in his Damascus sitting room.

"This is all I have left of my home," he says.

Everything about this young man suggests gentleness. René Shevan is short in height, slender and speaks softly.

All week his emotions have gone back and forth. Joy at the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Heartbreak at the memories it has triggered of his months in Syrian prisons.

"There was a woman. I still have her image here in my head. She was standing in the corner, and she was pleading…it's clear that they raped her.

"There was a boy. He was 15 or 16 years old. They were raping him, and he was calling his mother. He was saying, 'Mama... my mother... Mom.'"

There was his own rape and sexual abuse.

When I first met René, he had just escaped from Syria. That was 12 years ago. He sat opposite me, shaking and in tears, terrified of showing his face on camera.

The secret police had picked him up because he had gone to a pro-democracy demonstration. They also knew that he was gay.

Three of them gang raped René. He begged for mercy, but they laughed.

"Nobody heard me. I was alone," he recalled back in 2012.

They told him this was what he got for demanding freedom. Another officer abused him every day. For six months he suffered this abuse.

When images appeared on television this week of prisoners walking free in Damascus, René was carried back to images of his own.

"I'm not in prison now, I'm here. But I saw myself in the photos and the images of the people in Syria. I was so happy for them, but I saw myself there... I saw the old version of me there. I saw when they raped me, and when they tortured me. I saw everything in flashback."

He is weeping and we stop the interview. A few minutes, he says.

I look at his sitting room wall.

There is a photo of his ruined home in Syria, one of René running in a marathon in Utrecht. Then an image of the Jesuit priest, Father Frans Van Der Lugt, 75, a psychotherapist and ecumenical activist in Syria, until he was assassinated in 2014.

It was Father Van Der Lugt who told René - struggling in a deeply conservative environment - that he was a normal human being, that Jesus loved him whatever his sexual orientation was.

René takes a glass of water, then asks to continue our conversation.

Why has he agreed to show his face in front of a camera now, I wondered?

"Because the republic of fear is gone. Because I am I'm not scared of them anymore. Because Assad is a refugee in Moscow. Because all the criminals in Syria ran away. Because Syria returned to all Syrian people," he replies.

"I hope we will be able to live as a people in freedom, in equality. I'm so proud of myself as a Syrian, Dutch, as LGBT."

That doesn't mean he feels confident about living in Syria as a gay person just yet.

Under the Assad regime, homosexual acts were criminalised.

The country's new rulers have fundamentalist religious roots and have been implicated in violence and persecution against gay people.

"There are many Syrian LGBT who fought," René says.

"They were part of the revolution, and they lost their life. [The Syrian regime] killed them just because they were LGBT, and because they were part of the revolution."

René tells me he is "realistic" about the prospect of change. He is also concerned that all religious and ethnic groups - including the Kurds - are given protection.

Getty Images Some Syrian refugees have started to return home from neighbouring countriesGetty Images
Some Syrian refugees have started to return home from neighbouring countries

René is among around six million Syrians who fled the country and found safety either in neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey - the majority - or further afield in Europe.

Several European countries have already paused asylum applications from Syrians, following the overthrow of the Assad regime. International human rights groups have criticised the move as premature.

There are an estimated one million Syrians in Germany. Among them, a remarkable disabled Kurdish girl I first met in August 2015, when she had joined a vast column of people who had landed on the Greek island of Lesbos.

She travelled on through Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria on her way north.

To reach Europe from northern Syria, Nujeen had crossed mountains, rivers and the sea - her sister, Nisreen, pushing the wheelchair.

"I want to be an astronaut, and maybe meet and alien. And I want to meet the Queen," she said.

I crouched beside her on a dusty road, where thousands of asylum seekers lay exhausted in the midday heat. Her good humour and hopefulness were infectious.

This was a girl who taught herself fluent English by watching American television programmes. Nujeen grew up in Aleppo and then, as the war escalated, she went to her family's hometown of Kobane, a Kurdish stronghold which subsequently came under attack from the Islamic State (IS) group.

I meet her now in the bustling Neumarkt Square in Cologne, surrounded by Christmas market stalls where locals eat sausage and drink mulled wine, and the dramas of Syria seem far away.

But not for Nujeen.

All week she has been up watching television, long after the rest of the family has gone to bed. No matter that she has an exam for her business administration course. She will manage.

Never again, Nujeen understands, will there be a moment quite like the fall of Assad, a moment of such singular hope.

Nujeen was a teenager when she fled with her family from northern Syria. She has settled in Germany
Nujeen was a teenager when she fled with her family from northern Syria and has settled in Germany

"Nothing lasts forever. Darkness is followed by dawn," she says.

"I knew that I would never come back to a Syria that had Assad as president, and that we would never have the chance to be a better nation with that man in charge. We knew that we would never find peace unless he's gone. And now with that chapter over, I think the real challenge begins."

Like René, she wants a country that is tolerant of diversity and cares for those with disabilities.

"I don't want to go back to a place where there is no lift and only stairs up to an apartment on the fourth floor."

As a Kurd, she is well versed in her people's experience of suffering in the region.

Now, as the Kurdish forces are forced to pull out of cities in the oil producing north, Nujeen sees the danger posed by a new regime that is backed by Turkey.

"We know these people that came into power now. We know the countries and the powers that are backing them, and they're not exactly fans of Kurds. They do not exactly love us. That's our biggest worry right now."

There is also the fear of a potential regrouping of IS if Syria's new leaders cannot achieve stability in the country.

There are constant calls to family still living in the Kurdish areas.

"They are anxious and worried about the future as we all are," says Nujeen.

"We never stop calling, and we are always worried if they don't pick up after the first ring. There's a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen next".

The uncertainty is amplified by the change in asylum policy in Europe.

Still, this is a young woman whose experience of life - the experience of serious disability since birth, witnessing the terrors of war, travelling across the Middle East and Europe to safety - has created a capacity for hope.

In the near decade that I have known her, it is undimmed. The fall of Assad has only deepened her faith in Syria and its people.

"There are many people who are waiting to see Syria fall into some kind of an abyss," she says.

"We are not people who hate or envy or want to want to eliminate each other. We are people who were raised to be afraid of each other. But our default setting is that we love and accept who we are."

"We can and will be a be a better nation - a nation of love, acceptance and peace, not one of chaos, fear and destruction."

There are many hearts in Syria and beyond who will be hoping she is right.

Trump threatens to try to regain control of Panama Canal

Getty Images Donald trump in front of a podium with the Turning Point USA logo on itGetty Images
Trump made his remarks in front of thousands at Turning Point's annual conference, one of the country's largest gatherings of conservative activists

President-elect Donald Trump has demanded Panama reduce fees on the Panama Canal or return it to US control, accusing the central American country of charging "exorbitant prices" to American shipping and naval vessels.

"The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, highly unfair," he told a crowd of supporters in Arizona on Sunday.

"This complete rip-off of our country will immediately stop," he said, referring to when he takes office next month.

His remarks prompted a quick rebuke from Panama's president, who said "every square metre" of the canal and surrounding area belong to his country.

President José Raúl Mulino added that Panama's sovereignty and independence were non-negotiable.

Trump made the comments to supporters of Turning Point USA, a conservative activist group that provided significant support to his 2024 election campaign.

It was a rare example of a US leader saying he could push a country to hand over territory - although he did not explain how he would do so - and a sign of how American foreign policy and diplomacy may shift once he enters the White House following his inauguration on 20 January.

Trump's comments followed a similar post a day earlier in which he said the Panama Canal was a "vital national asset" for the US.

If shipping rates are not lowered, Trump said on Sunday, "we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, quickly and without question".

The 51-mile (82km) Panama Canal cuts across the central American nation and is the main link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

It was built in the early 1900s and the US maintained control over the canal zone until 1977, when treaties gradually ceded the land back to Panama. After a period of joint control, Panama took sole control in 1999.

Up to 14,000 ships cross the canal per year, including container ships carrying cars, natural gas and other goods, and military vessels.

As well as Panama, the president-elect also took aim at Canada and Mexico over what he called unfair trade practices. He accused them of allowing drugs and immigrants into the US, although he called Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum a "wonderful woman".

Trump hits the usual themes

Trump made his remarks in front of thousands at Turning Point's annual conference, one of the country's largest gatherings of conservative activists.

Turning Point poured huge resources into get-out-the-vote efforts in swing states designed to bolster Trump and other Republicans during the election campaign.

It was his first speech since a deal passed Congress this week to keep the US government open, after several provisions were removed including one that would have increased the country's debt ceiling.

Trump had supported raising the debt ceiling, which restricts the amount of money the US government can borrow.

But his speech on Sunday avoided that issue entirely, instead recapping his election victory and hitting on themes – including immigration, crime and foreign trade – that were mainstays of his campaign.

He did, however, mention Elon Musk.

"You know, they're on a new kick," he said. "All the different hoaxes. The new one is that President Trump has ceded the presidency to Elon Musk."

"No, no, that's not happening," he said. "He's not gonna be president."

Several speakers here at the conference were critical of government spending and of politicians in both parties – however the divisions inside the Republican Party which have played out in Congress in recent days were mostly muted.

两名主播被追罚税款逾千万元 网络平台涉税新规征求意见

近日,中国官方通报了两起网络主播偷税案件,两名涉案主播分别被追缴税款及罚款共计超1500万元。同时,《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定(征求意见稿)》已向社会公开征求意见,其中包括对互联网直播等商业活动进行征税的条款。

12月18日,上海和厦门税务部门分别查处了两起网络主播偷税案件。据中国央视报道,上海税务局第三稽查局调查发现,网络主播王子柏(网名“柏公子”,粉丝量292万)在2021年至2023年间通过隐匿收入方式少缴个人所得税和增值税共计749万元。税务部门依据相关法律,对其追缴税款、加收滞纳金并处罚款,总金额达1330万元。厦门税务局第一稽查局则查实,网络主播程虎(网名“厦门小程”,粉丝量500万)在2020年至2022年间通过类似手段少缴税款121万元,其被追缴税款及罚款总计199万元。两案合计罚款超1500万元。

两起偷税案事主被罚钜款

对此,网络电商从业者刘先生在本周一(23日)接受本台采访时说,税务部门追缴主播税款和滞纳金,除增加财政收入外,也迎合了部分人的仇富心理:“政府没钱就想办法,不管是现在的,还是以前的,能追缴的钱,能罚多少就罚多少。国内很多企业、机关都发不出工资。”

中国税务部门表示,将持续依法打击偷税漏税行为,并呼吁网络主播和平台企业严格履行纳税义务,树立合规经营的榜样。

涉税新规公开征求意见至明年1月

与此同时,中国国家税务总局会同国家市场监督管理总局起草了《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定(征求意见稿)》,自12月20日起向社会公开征求意见。

据《第一财经》报道,国家税务总局征管和科技发展司司长练奇峰介绍,新规提出“三不变、一变化”。“三不变”包括:平台企业报送涉税信息的程序性义务不变,合规经营者税负不变,小微企业和大部分从业人员的税负不变。“一变化”则指不合规经营的高收入者,因虚假申报或偷逃税款将面临税负回归正常水平。

财经评论人士郑旭光认为,此举旨在加强对网络平台经营者的税务管控,他对本台说:“他现在是针对平台经营者和工作人员,当平台有了一定规模,其收入较为客观,就需要对平台经营方进行税务稽查,包括涉税信息申报,比如你有哪些人员,多少人等等,这是一个税务信息收集的过程。”

练奇峰补充道,新规对90%以上的合规经营者没有实际影响,并特别对从事配送、运输、家政等便民劳务活动的从业人员收入信息作出豁免规定。同时,税务部门将加强数据安全管理,确保平台企业和从业人员的信息得到有效保护。

郑旭光认为,官方目前为促进就业,对年收入低于12万元的人群暂时不会征税,但会密切关注其收入情况。

加强对互联网平台征税重罚违者

财经评论人士蔡慎坤则认为,中国各地政府财政收入下降,使互联网平台成为增加税收的重要来源。他接受本台采访时说:“互联网平台这些年发展比较快,但缺乏规范管理。一些头部主播近年挣了不少钱,现在财政来源日益紧张的情况下,可能会进一步加大税收力度,对互联网平台商家进行全面监管。那些偷税的主播发现一个打击一个。”

蔡慎坤还说,目前各地税务收入减少,以至于广州等一线城市的公务员和教师都出现薪资发放困难:“教师也好,公务员也好,实际上都在大幅度降薪,而且力度可谓前所未有。”

中国税务部门表示,将持续完善税收监管和服务体系,推动行业高质量、合规发展。《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的征求意见时间至明年1月19日截止。

责编:许书婷

© “柏公子”、“厦门小程”网络视频截图。

网名“柏公子”(左)和“厦门小程”的网络主播,因偷税被罚合计超过千万。

Ethiopian resistance hero’s family tries to reclaim medal taken by Italian troops

The solid gold Imperial Order of the Star of Ethiopia.

The descendants of a hero of Ethiopia’s resistance against European imperialism are seeking to retrieve a gold medal taken from him by Italian troops, after the artefact’s current holder failed to sell it at an online auction earlier this month.

The solid gold Imperial Order of the Star of Ethiopia used to be in the possession of Ras Desta Damtew, a son-in-law of Emperor Haile Selassie and a guerrilla army commander whose capture and execution in 1937 spelled the end of Ethiopia’s resistance to fascist Italy’s occupation.

Its whereabouts were unknown until this November, when the star-shaped brooch resurfaced on the online platform LiveAuctioneers, where it was offered for sale for an estimated €60,000-90,000 (£50,000-£74,000) by the Lausanne-registered company La Galerie Numismatique.

The website’s listing did not hide the item’s controversial provenance, describing it as coming “from the estate of an Italian soldier who was present at the capture of the prince [Desta Damtew]”.

“My first feeling was anger that they were so blatantly claiming to have taken it from someone who was executed,” said Laly Kassa, one of Desta Damtew’s granddaughters. “This one was so egregious that we just felt like as a family, we had to prove something.”

The family say that, when approached by their lawyer, La Galerie Numismatique initially rebuffed their restitution request, offering to sell the medal for €61,595, including a buyer’s premium and VAT.

At the auction on 1 December, the brooch failed to meet the minimum price required for a winning bid, however, and its current owner, a British collector of military memorabilia based in Spain, has since entered direct talks with the legal representative of Damtew’s family. La Galerie Numismatique did not respond when approached for a comment.

What makes the medal especially significant, according to James De Lorenzi, an associate history professor at New York’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice, is that its removal from Ethiopia can be directly connected to an alleged war crime.

Damtew, who decided to fight the Italian invasion while Selassie fled the country in 1936 to go into exile in England, was captured on 24 February 1937 after a skirmish near Mount Gurage and then executed by a group of Ethiopian fighters commanded by Italian officers.

In 1948, the Ethiopian government charged 10 Italian citizens before the UN War Crimes Commission (UNWCC), submitting affidavits describing Damtew’s killing after his capture, when he was a prisoner of war. This evidence led the UNWCC to rule that the 10 Italians were either accused or suspected war criminals.

“The medal was thus obtained by an agent of the fascist regime who was directly involved in this war crime, amid a broader counterinsurgency that involved mass killings, sexual violence, torture, and arbitrary detention,” said De Lorenzi. “Given this provenance, returning the medal to Ethiopia is the only responsible choice.”

While the Imperial Order of the Star of Ethiopia would not be the first precious artefact to be returned to east Africa in recent years, it will probably generate fresh interest in the whereabouts of items looted during the Italian occupation of what was also known as Abyssinia, between 1935 and 1941.

Article 31 of the Paris peace treaties of 1947 stipulated that Italy should within 18 months “restore all Ethiopian works of art, religious objects, archives, and objects of historical value removed from Ethiopia to Italy since October 3, 1935”. But with the exception of the Italian state’s 2005 return of a 1,700-year-old granite monument known as the Axum obelisk, Italian institutions and individuals have mostly failed to follow up on the requirement.

Ras – a royal title roughly equivalent to “duke” – Desta Damtew was a member of the aristocracy that ruled the Ethiopian empire from the middle ages. Royal rule of the country in the Horn of Africa was marked by stark economic inequalities, which fuelled the coup d’etat that toppled the monarchy in 1974.

Damtew’s granddaughter Laly Kassa said his descendants were “unequivocal” that the medal would not be privately held in the event of a restitution. “If we can get the medal back, it will go to a museum,” she said. “We want it on permanent display at the National Museum of Ethiopia in Addis Ababa.”

In spite of his royal ties, Desta Damtew was honoured as an icon of African resistance to colonialism even in the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, and by black solidarity movements across the globe.

Italy first tried to claim Abyssinia as a protectorate in the late 19th century but was defeated emphatically by Ethiopian forces: Damtew’s father, Fitawrari Damtew Ketena, fell in the climactic battle of Adwa in March 1896, which came to be remembered as a defining moment of African defiance.

In 1935, however, Ethiopia became what US president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s foreign policy adviser Sumner Welles called “the first victim of Axis aggression”, when Italy invaded from neighbouring Eritrea.

Ras Desta Damtew pictured after his capture In 1937.

France holds day of mourning for Mayotte cyclone dead

Getty Images A worker clears debris on a street in the city of Mamoudzou on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, after the cyclone Chido hit the archipelagoGetty Images

France is to hold a day of national mourning after Cyclone Chido devastated its Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte earlier this month.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the nationwide remembrance during his visit to the island last week - where he was jeered by some islanders who criticised the slow delivery of aid.

It is feared hundreds, possibly thousands, of people died when Chido made landfall off Africa's south-east coast on 14 December bringing winds of up to 260 km/h (160mph) and 250mm of rainfall in the first 24 hours.

People across France will pay tribute and flags will be flown at half-mast in a show of solidarity at cities including Paris, Marseille and Lyon.

More than a week on from the storm survivors are struggling without water, communication and electricity while rescuers try to provide urgently needed assistance.

Mayotte, which lies between the African mainland and Madagascar, was already France's most impoverished territory before the cyclone struck.

Chido - the worst storm to hit the archipelago in 90 years - flattened areas where people live in shacks with sheet metal roofs and left fields of dirt and debris.

At least 31 people are reported by French officials to have died, but the death toll is expected to be much higher with thousands still missing.

After Mayotte the storm hit the African mainland, killing at least 94 people in Mozambique and 13 in Malawi.

Macron pledged to rebuild the island's devastated infrastructure and homes following his visit.

After touring the region in a helicopter to see the devastation, he said that Thursday was a day he would never forget.

During the visit he was heckled and faced calls to resign from locals who demanded more aid in devastated areas.

Macron responded by telling locals: "I had nothing to do with the cyclone. You can blame me, but it wasn't me."

Prime Minister François Bayrou said the tragedy of Mayotte is probably the worst natural disaster in the past centuries in French history.

More than 100,000 people remain in Red Cross shelters after their homes were destroyed.

Cook Islands wants its own passport. New Zealand says no

Getty Images One Foot Island in the South Pacific; Aitutaki, Cook IslandsGetty Images
A separate passport and citizenship is only available to fully independent countries, Wellington says

New Zealand has rejected a proposal by the Cook Islands to introduce a seperate passport for its citizens while allowing them to retain New Zealand citizenship.

Cook Islands, a self-governing island Pacific nation, is in "free association" with New Zealand, which is responsible for the former's foreign affairs and defence.

Cook Islanders can also live, work and access healthcare in New Zealand.

Prime Minister Mark Brown had asked for Cook Islanders to have their own passports "to recognise our own people" - but New Zealand has said that is not possible unless the Cook Islands becomes fully independent.

Documents first released to local broadcaster 1News and seen by Reuters reportedly showed that Brown has for months been pushing for a seperate passport and citizenship for those in the Cook Islands, while hoping to maintain its relationship as a realm country of New Zealand.

Reports say tensions between both countries have been escalating over the issue, with leaders of both places holding a series of talks over the past few months.

"New Zealanders are free to carry dual passports, there are a number of New Zealanders who have their passports of other countries," Radio New Zealand reported Brown saying.

"It is precisely the same thing that we'll be doing," he had said.

However some Cook Islanders had criticised their government for a lack of consultation over the proposal.

Thomas Wynne, a Cook Island national who works in Wellington, told local news outlet Cook Islands News: "The real question is what do the people of the Cook Islands want and have they been consulted on this critical decision? Or will it be a decision made by the few on behalf of the many?"

Other Cook Island residents told 1News that they were worried that such a move would also affect access to services like their right to healthcare in New Zealand.

But on Sunday, New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters effectively brought the conversation to an end, announcing that a separate passport and citizenship is only available to fully independent and sovereign countries.

Any move to change the current relationship between the two countries would have to be put through a referendum, he added.

"Such a referendum would allow the Cook Islands people to carefully weigh up whether they prefer the status quo, with their access to New Zealand citizenship and passports, or full independence," he said in a statement to media outlets.

"If the goal of the government of the Cook Islands is independence from New Zealand, then of course that's a conversation we are ready for them to initiate."

According to 1News, Brown later responded to Peters' statement by saying the Cook Islands would "not be implementing anything that affects our important status [with New Zealand]".

Nearly 100,000 Cook Islands nationals live in New Zealand, while only about 15,000 live in Cook Islands themselves.

Another small Pacific island, Niue, also shares a similar relationship with New Zealand - it is internally self-governing but relies on Wellington for defence and most foreign affairs.

Self-governing territories elsewhere in the world, including Greenland and the Faroe Islands, which are part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Puerto Rico, which is subordinated to the US in defence and foreign affairs.

Trump and Biden, Make the Hostages Your Priority

I was held captive in Gaza. Healing will only happen when all the captives have been brought home.

© Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

A bird flies in front of contrails in the sky above Jerusalem, formed in the shape of a ribbon representing the plight of the hostages taken on Oct. 7 still held in Gaza.

Doctors issue safety warning over water bead Christmas gifts for children

Getty Images Child playing with water beads. The beads are of different colours and in a clear bowl. The hands of the child can been seen.Getty Images

Emergency doctors in the UK have issued a safety warning over water beads, which could be given to children as gifts over Christmas.

The beads, also known as jelly balls, sensory beads, or water crystals are marketed as crafting tools and homeware items - but also toys.

They are typically only a few millimetres but some can expand up to 400 times their original size in about 36 hours when exposed to liquid, creating a hidden danger. If a child swallows one, they can cause bowel obstruction and the consequences can be fatal.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) advises that the beads should be kept well away from children aged under five.

The "safety flash" is for doctors to make sure they know what to look out for while on duty, but the college also wants parents and carers of be aware of the dangers.

The beads are not visible on X-rays.

They can also cause choking and have harmed children in the UK, with reports linking them to deaths overseas, the government's Office for Product Safety and Standards said in September.

Its safety alert added the beads should only used with older children or vulnerable adults under close supervision.

The RCEM advises parents and carers to seek medical attention immediately if there is any suspicion a child may have swallowed a water bead.

"Having seen the effects first hand, which can be devastating and detrimental, we are asking people to please think twice about the dangers these pose while selecting and gifting presents this season," Dr Salwa Malik, vice president of the RCEM, told PA Media.

The RCEM alert also highlights the potential danger to children and vulnerable adults of button or coin batteries and magnets, if swallowed.

书评:“麻烦制造者”黎智英

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书评:“麻烦制造者”黎智英

KEVIN PERAINO
2014年,黎智英(中)在警察的押送下离开抗议区。
2014年,黎智英(中)在警察的押送下离开抗议区。 Kin Cheung/Associated Press
《麻烦制造者:黎智英如何成为亿万富翁、香港头号异议人士,以及中国最令人畏惧的批评者》,马克·L·克利福德著(THE TROUBLEMAKER: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, by Mark L. Clifford)
2020年8月10日上午,大批武装警察抵达香港最著名的民主派报纸《苹果日报》的总部。他们搜查办公室,寻找叛国的证据,押送着这家报纸的亿万富翁出版人黎智英,从他在三楼的新闻编辑室走过。根据新的国安法,黎智英很快面临与外国势力勾结的指控。马克·L·克利福德在《麻烦制造者》中写道,几个月后,他开始意识到自己困境的严重性,他用WhatsApp向同事们发送了一条简短的消息:“全部删除。”这本书对黎智英的工作和生活进行了生动的描述。
始终没有认罪的黎智英在今年秋天的审判中作证称,他所做的只是“高举火炬”传达现实中的香港的情绪。他的报纸曾大力支持2014年香港雨伞运动中的抗议者,该运动谴责北京在1997年从英国手中取得香港控制权后对它的控制日益收紧。
自四年前被捕以来,黎智英一直处于被收押状态中,而且经常被单独监禁。虽然候任总统特朗普夸口他可以“轻易”促成黎智英的释放,但大多数观察人士并没有那么乐观。黎智英本人决定留在香港,而不是试图逃离,他知道自己可能会在监狱中度过余生。“我号召我的人民去战斗,”黎智英在被捕前不久向前苏联异议人士纳坦·沙兰斯基解释道。“我不能让他们失望。”
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《麻烦制造者》是一部圣徒传:虽然它并没有完全忽略黎智英的缺点,但最终呈现出来的还是某种在世圣人的形象。曾在香港一家报社任主编的克利福德也是人权倡导者,在黎智英的一家公司担任过董事。在书中,他突出了黎智英在捍卫民主和经济自由方面的自我牺牲精神和勇气。克利福德写道,黎智英的故事最终揭示出“一个超越了监狱牢笼的人,发现自己在精神上比以往任何时候都更加自由”。
黎智英的人生旅程是一部扣人心弦的传奇,始于内战时期的中国南方省份广东省,他在那里度过了贫困的童年,后来他成为了香港最富有的人之一。1949年,毛泽东的革命颠覆了他的家庭生活。黎智英回忆说,他目睹党员干部强迫他的母亲跪在碎玻璃上。她在一个劳改地给人做饭,由于当时食物极其匮乏,她故意把米饭烧糊,这样就能带回家,让孩子们有口饭吃。黎智英记得在最艰难的日子里,自己还吃过烤田鼠。六岁时,他会去捡烟头,把烟叶残渣搜集起来,然后重新卷成烟再卖,赚取微薄的利润。他的父亲痛苦不堪,曾经试图在小儿子正在休息的房间里上吊自杀。
12岁时,黎智英决定偷渡到香港。他在工厂打工,失去了一个手指尖。在这个自19世纪以来一直由英国统治的殖民地,英欧文化无处不在。黎智英回忆道:“我注意到,所有的成功人士都说英语。”空闲下来的时候,他会认真收听美国之音,翻阅字典。
黎智英最后自己开起了工厂,在寻找低成本供应商的美国百货公司买家之间奔波,在快速时尚领域赚到了第一桶金。他成为了其所谓的“西方文化、价值观和制度”的传播者,买来哈耶克的《通往奴役之路》四处送人,还成为古典自由主义经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼的朋友。
虽然克利福德没有用更多笔墨去说明,但黎智英也开始表现出无节制的资本主义的一些丑陋特征。在创立了他的第一个零售连锁几年后,他开着一辆金色的劳斯莱斯四处兜风,还拥有一处私人动物园,克利福德写道,里面“有几只孔雀、一只果蝠、鹿、一只猴子和一头喜欢喝奶油苏打水的宠物熊”。
黎智英的新闻事业同样带有过于低俗的色彩。他创办了《壹周刊》和小报《苹果日报》,为狗仔队购买摩托车,这样他们就能第一时间赶到车祸现场拍摄尸骨未寒的死者;他的报纸还对香港繁华的卖淫业做出了详尽的、迎合嫖客的描述。
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然而,1989年北京镇压天安门广场抗议者后,黎智英发现了一种新的使命感。“在天安门事件发生之前,我对中国没有任何感觉,”黎智英在接受采访的时候说。“突然间,就像母亲在黑夜里呼唤我一样,我的内心打开了。”黎智英与民主活动人士和西方权势人物建立了联系。当雨伞运动爆发时,黎智英和其他抗议者一起走上街头,坐在一家肯德基餐厅旁的草坪椅上主持大局,成为公众关注的焦点。
尽管勇气可嘉且足智多谋,但在克利福德的笔下,黎智英是资本主义和西方路线的殉道者,这一点让人略感不满。我们现在已经清楚地看到,黎智英所信奉的那种自由市场原教旨主义会导致不平等,从而助长仇外的民族主义。眼下的西方世界领袖,正是一开始利用诉讼和恐吓来压制新闻界的人。克利福德所讲述的故事有一些意想不到的受害者,其中就包括黎智英为之付出巨大牺牲的“西方价值观”。
《麻烦制造者:黎智英如何成为亿万富翁、香港头号异议人士,以及中国最令人畏惧的批评者》,马克·L·克利福德著,Free Press出版社,264页,定价:28.99美元

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熊猫外交还是熊猫诱饵?中国对美国地方政府展开魅力攻势

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熊猫外交还是熊猫诱饵?中国对美国地方政府展开魅力攻势

马语琴, HEATHER KNIGHT, VIK JOLLY
8月,中国和加州官员在圣迭戈动物园举行的剪彩仪式上。
8月,中国和加州官员在圣迭戈动物园举行的剪彩仪式上。 Ariana Drehsler for The New York Times
去年,旧金山市长伦敦·布里德在与中国领导人习近平共进晚餐后,陪同他前往机场送行。在停机坪上,她提出了自己的要求:大熊猫。
当时,旧金山的动物园正陷入困境。旅游业遭受重创,她面临着艰难的连任竞选。一对来自中国的大熊猫将是政治和公关的胜利。
接下来是几个月的非正式谈判,布里德在某种意义上成为了一名外交官,尽管作为政客,她并没有外交或者安全事务方面的经验。她的日程安排和电子邮件都显示,她后来去了中国,并见到了国家副主席和外交部副部长。这次访华行程的其他记录和照片显示,随行的还有美国《星岛日报》的主编,这是一份立场亲北京的报纸,在美国注册为外国代理人。
中国人民对外友好协会安排了这次行程,美国情报官员认为,这个机构试图“恶意影响”美国地方领导人。不同于华盛顿的政治人物出访,布里德没有听取中央情报局的介绍,了解她在访华期间可能面临的反情报威胁,以及那里的官员可能会如何试图操纵她。
旧金山市长伦敦·布里德(左)和中国野生动物保护协会秘书长武明录4月在北京举行的向美国城市租借大熊猫的签字仪式上。
旧金山市长伦敦·布里德(左)和中国野生动物保护协会秘书长武明录4月在北京举行的向美国城市租借大熊猫的签字仪式上。 Liu Zheng/Associated Press
布里德想要的是大熊猫,但中国在这次会面中也是有所图的——可以借此机会与美国科技重镇之一的市长培养关系。虽然没有证据表明存在任何交换条件或不当行为,但情报官员表示,随着中国在华盛顿的影响力减弱,它越来越希望在地方政府中发挥影响力。
文件和采访显示,大熊猫就是中方可以倚仗的一项工具。中国官员试图利用熊猫来培养关系,塑造对台湾的政策,并改善中国在国外的形象,这是习近平的一个重要目标。大熊猫交流为中国领导人提供了难得且高调的机会,来重塑他们国家的形象。
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这种情况由来已久。美方谈判代表表示,在2000年代中期与奥马哈和奥克兰进行大熊猫谈判时,中国外交官曾试图破坏内布拉斯加州与台湾的贸易协议,并试图说服一位加州国会议员停止批评北京。在这些努力失败后,中国拒绝向这两个城市提供熊猫。
但情报官员表示,中国在美国地方层面的影响力正在上升,地方官员往往没有接受必要的培训或情报简报,来抵御这种影响。
今年9月,联邦检察官指控纽约州州长凯茜·霍格尔的一名前助手收受贿赂,以换取中国在奥尔巴尼的影响力。同样是在今年,纽约市市长埃里克·亚当斯的一名前助手因与中国政府关联团体合作而引起关注
美国和欧洲的地方官员还在极力搞清楚,那些突然冒出来的非正式中国海外警务站究竟是怎么回事。
随着北京与华盛顿之间的关系降温,高层交流减缓,地方层面的外交变得越来越重要。
美国动物园的前熊猫谈判代表戴维·汤说:“每个市长都希望借助熊猫的宣传效应。”他还说,“熊猫成了诱饵。”
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熊猫是保护野生动物的代言人。动物园每年支付约100万美元从中国那里租来熊猫,并在人工饲养环境下进行繁殖,希望有朝一日熊猫能被放归野外。中国应该用这笔钱来保护野生物种。
然而,《纽约时报》今年的一项调查报道显示,三十年来,中国捕获的熊猫数量实际上多余放归自然的数量。而激进的人工繁殖方式不仅令熊猫受伤,甚至导致了死亡的发生。中国还将数百万美元用于修建公寓和道路等基础设施,而美国动物园的管理者和监管机构对此视而不见。
美国的动物园有维持这一项目继续运行的动机。大熊猫能够吸引大量游客和周边商品的销售。中国也能从这些交流中获益。
位于纽约州的亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)表示,“在宣传和寻求影响力的谜题中,熊猫是一个有趣的部分,因为它们看似无害、毛茸茸的,让人想抱。”
正如奥马哈的亨利多利动物园和水族馆前任馆长李·西蒙斯所说:“几乎每位中国驻美大使都是熊猫的推销员。”
中国驻华盛顿的大使馆没有就北京是否利用大熊猫来推动其政治利益发表评论。该馆称大熊猫“促进了中美两国人民之间的交流,促进了两国人民的友谊”。它批评那些“在没有事实证据的情况下,恶意联系和无理诽谤中美在大熊猫保护方面合作”的人。
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布里德的办公室拒绝透露,市长是否对她访华行程的组织单位以及那份注册为外国代理人的报纸感到担忧。
“这次出访旨在促进旅游,最终将有利于旧金山的经济,”她的办公室在一份声明中表示。
布里德在4月访华后在旧金山国际机场。北京利用所谓的熊猫外交来赢得世界的好感。
布里德在4月访华后在旧金山国际机场。北京利用所谓的熊猫外交来赢得世界的好感。 Carlos Avila Gonzalez/San Francisco Chronicle, via Associated Press
布里德今年春天宣布,两只大熊猫将于明年来到旧金山。
熊猫的影响力
中国人民对外友好协会自称非政府组织。但它是共产党的一个分支机构,负责监督与外国地方政府的联络工作。
2022年,美国国家情报总监警告州和市政府机构,中国“加强了与美国各州和地方领导人结交的行动,一些人称之为‘地方包围中央’的战略”。情报官员表示,该友好机构是这一努力的一部分。
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习近平主导了一项通过海外宣传重塑国家形象的努力,用他的话说就是“讲好中国故事”。在他的领导下,中国制作了一系列支持北京的纪录片,并创办了以熊猫为中心的媒体频道
直到不久前,爱丁堡的动物园里还有大熊猫。中国政府支持的孔子学院与苏格兰首府的学校官员合作,开设了一个名为“熊猫之外”的单元。这个项目包括了显示台湾为中国一部分的地图。
友好协会还与美国政界人士和中国宣传官员共同组织了与大熊猫相关的活动。该团体未回应置评请求。
“熊猫是中国在美国赢得公众关注并建立软实力的少数工具之一,”圣母大学美中关系专家凯尔·贾罗斯表示。
 中华福尼亚”
加利福尼亚州有两个中国领事馆,有大量华裔人口。该州与北京长期保持联系,这种有时被称为“中华福尼亚”的关系带来了诸如气候变化合作等积极变化。
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但专家表示,这种关系也使加州和地方政府面临安全风险。
乔治敦大学高级研究员、前中情局东亚事务官员丹尼斯·怀尔德表示,在国会代表团访问中国之前,官员们通常会听取中情局的简报,讨论北京可能如何利用这些访问。出访者还会得到有关网络安全风险的警告。
但怀尔德指出,“在地方层面并没有类似的机制。”
布里德办公室在声明中表示,她收到了国务院的简报。怀尔德表示,这些简报不如中情局的情报简报详尽。
在旧金山湾对岸的奥克兰,政界人士花了近十年的时间试图为市动物园争取熊猫。前副市长张明德表示,他曾与一位中国副总理及其他多位中国高级官员会面,还说,他们提出了一些他认为越来越不合理的要求。
位于加利福尼亚州的奥克兰动物园。该市官员花了近十年的时间试图为该公园引进熊猫。
位于加利福尼亚州的奥克兰动物园。该市官员花了近十年的时间试图为该公园引进熊猫。 Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
2008年,张明德在华盛顿与中国大使会面时,带上了国会众议员芭芭拉·李。他说,这次会议名义上是关于熊猫的,但一名中方助手向芭芭拉·李施压,要求她停止批评中国在非洲的活动。此前一年,芭芭拉·李曾发起一项动议,呼吁中国利用在苏丹的影响力结束当地的种族灭绝。
“老实说,他们更感兴趣的是与芭芭拉·李讨论非洲问题,而不是谈论熊猫,”他提到。
芭芭拉·李的办公室未回应置评请求。
张明德表示,奥克兰动物园耗资100万美元建造了熊猫园,并向中国成都的一个熊猫繁育中心捐赠了37.5万美元,但熊猫并没有来。
内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的官员也有类似经历,时任动物园园长的西蒙斯表示。同一年,在该州与台湾达成了一项价值4亿美元的农业贸易协议后,熊猫计划落空。西蒙斯说,中国大使曾要求他阻止与台湾的这项协议。
当他没有照办时,中国拒绝把熊猫送来。“中国对奥马哈非常不满,”前美国熊猫谈判代表汤说。
在圣迭戈,一名中国外交官于2023年末致信市长托德·格洛里亚,请求就熊猫和“互惠合作”举行会谈。根据电子邮件和日程记录,格洛里亚市长同意在动物园会面,这一地点选择是动物园的一位高层建议的,认为这是一个低调的地点。
当圣迭戈终于在6月将迎来熊猫时,格洛里亚飞往中国参加熊猫的启程仪式。他在采访中表示,自己在北京与一名外交部副部长举行了会晤。
圣迭戈市市长托德·格洛里亚为迎接即将送往圣迭戈的熊猫而飞往中国。他表示,在北京期间,他会见了中国外交部副部长。
圣迭戈市市长托德·格洛里亚为迎接即将送往圣迭戈的熊猫而飞往中国。他表示,在北京期间,他会见了中国外交部副部长。 Ariana Drehsler for The New York Times
格洛里亚表示,他理解这是中美关系的“紧张时期”,但他对双方的关系保持清醒头脑。
“我能够控制我所参与的部分,”格洛里亚说。“通过双方接触,你可以获得理解,并能够合作。”
但北京的宣传要点渗透到了圣迭戈熊猫欢迎仪式中——而且不只是体现在了中国大使的讲话中。动物园官员保罗·巴里博特提到该机构致力于“共同未来”,这是习近平主席的一项核心外交政策概念,认为中国及其他国家将与美国争夺国际影响力。
加州州长加文·纽森提到“人类命运共同体”,这是习近平政府的另一个高频词汇。
旧金山仍在等待熊猫到来的消息。布里德在11月的连任竞选中失利,但她的继任者丹尼尔·卢里表示,他希望将熊猫带回这座城市。
最近一份城市报告指出,旧金山动物园“对动物和游客都不安全”。该市也正在对动物园的财务状况进行审计,园方表示这可能会危及获得熊猫的希望。但尚无迹象表明中国改变了计划。
在圣迭戈欢迎仪式后的一次简短采访中,中国驻美国大使谢锋表示:“美国人民非常喜爱大熊猫。”
2023年8月,中国驻美国大使谢锋在圣迭戈动物园熊猫馆开馆仪式上。
2023年8月,中国驻美国大使谢锋在圣迭戈动物园熊猫馆开馆仪式上。 Ariana Drehsler for The New York Times

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青年志Youthology|下行中的2024 (上):中国职场故事

CDT 档案卡
标题:下行中的2024 (上):中国职场故事
作者:Lisa
发表日期:2024.12.22
来源:青年志Youthology
主题归类:时代的一粒沙
CDS收藏:人物馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

2024年,经济局势严峻,尽管政府推出措施提振经济、扭转价格下跌,却未见消费需求回升。

房地产仍旧走弱,以国家统计局发布的70个大中城市商品房价格指数观察,截至2024年9月,二手房价格相比2021年高点下降15.4%,新房价格下降9%。除个别政策支持的行业外,很多行业面对消费的低迷,陷入价格战。企业生存难,“降本增效”成为底色,劳动者收入愈加压缩,消费愈加低沉。

就业难在年轻人中尤其严峻,据国家统计局数据,29岁以下年轻人的失业率明显高于30岁以上人群*。

就个人来说,对经济冷暖的体认并不需要数据支撑。作为年终回顾,我们希望看到“大环境”中的「人」,人们的工作和生活正在发生怎样的变化?因此,我们回归一个简答的问题:这一年你过得怎么样?

我们采访了5位从事市场营销的人,他们从业时间均为10年以上,疫情前已经成为中层骨干,也因此能够更深刻地感受到行业的、消费者的、组织的变化。他们来自民营企业、外资企业和合资企业,从事的行业分布在食品、服装、新能源汽车、科技和房地产,包含不同政策支持程度的行业。

当消费降级、降本增效、价格竞争成为市场基调,他们或者比从前更“卷”,为维持收入不降太多,不放过任何可能奏效的办法;或者开始“克制自己的努力”,接受今非昔比的现状,维持恰当的投入产出比。

需要指出的是,尽管可能和大多数中产一样经历着上升受阻、财富缩水,几位被访者均就职于北上广深的大型企业,处境很可能好于其他城市,好于中小企业雇员;并且,相比于后辈的年轻人,他们已经感到自己属于“幸运的一代”。在明天即将发布的《下篇》中,我们采访了24位年轻人,听他们对2024还有什么想说的。

从高歌猛进的时代走来,我们习惯于在年终复盘和新年展望之时,总结“机会”和“办法”。但是,这一年在尝试了比以往年头更多的“机会”和“办法”之后,或许真正留给我们的,是如何理解一个从未经历过的经济周期,如何在一个艰难的环境中自处。

以下是他们的自述。

注:据国家统计局数据,2024年10月全国城镇调查失业率为5.0%,全国城镇不包含在校生的16—24岁劳动力失业率为17.1%,全国城镇不包含在校生的25—29岁劳动力失业率为6.8%。本统计对“就业”的定义为每周工作时间1小时即算为就业。另有经济学家关注到从城镇回归农村的劳动力数量可观,并没有反映在城镇失业率数据中。

image

两个创新项目被喊停之后,

我不折腾了,苟住吧。

大概2015至2019那几年,商业地产这个赛道做得风生水起。那时我还在一家服装公司,我们得求着购物中心给个好铺位,因为当时对于零售品牌来说,在购物中心开店是提升品牌形象、把握高净值顾客的重要渠道。我之前在咨询公司做过,有跨界的思维和资源,刚好那两年我经常跟一家商业地产公司的合作伙伴探讨关于购物中心的想法,有一天他们就抛出了橄榄枝。或许当时这家公司在同行日渐火热的竞争中,期待通过跨界人才的加入做一些尝试和突破,打造差异化,毕竟商业地产行业一直崇尚“标准化、可快速复制”,当时还没有太多所谓“非标商业”出现。

那是在2020年疫情期间,但我当时没想到疫情会有三年这么久。我大学期间也赶上了非典,但是很快就过去了。抱着疫情很快会过去的预期,我就来到了这家商业地产公司。

刚加入的时候,公司有利润和增长的空间,要求我这种跨界人士提供不同的视角、充分发挥。2021年上半年,公司曾给我一栋空置的小楼,包括调研、定位规划、品牌化包装、空间及商品规划、空间设计、招商洽谈、运营策略、投入收入测算等大部分环节都交给我。在招商洽谈中,对于一些小众品牌,老板甚至允许不用惯常的租金思维来合作。

我很喜欢这种挑战,大概在一个月里就把规划类环节做完了。第三个月的时候意向商户也基本谈完了,在上项目申报预算的一周,突然被公司喊停了,这个项目算是“胎死腹中”了。现在回头看,2021年房地产政策起起落落,大家信心逐渐没那么足了。那时大部分同行企业和资产方在资金上大概开始出现问题,部分企业开始售出重资产项目。那段时间“轻资产”成为商业地产这个板块热议的话题。

注:2021年房地产政策包括上半年严格调控的“三道红线”、房地产贷款集中管理制度、实施“两集中”供地模式等,及下半年透露暖意的维护按揭有序发放、房地产税延期、支持优质房地产并购贷款等。

2022年上半年,公司又启动了第二个创新项目,我再次重整信心参与其中,这次覆盖全国业务,但就在规划完毕、项目落地第一阶段时,公司的领导层发生了大变动,从70后为主的行业资深经理人,换成了一个更为年轻的80后团队,无人提及的旧项目默默流产。我估计老板的考虑一是要降低成本,二是在这样的大环境里,行业大咖和经验丰富的职业经理人做出的结果可能也差不多,因为公司没有开拓性的事情要做,只是维持基础运营。我觉得就是不折腾,安安稳稳地躺过这段周期的信号。

接下来公司给我的空间也收缩了,新的领导层也不关心我以前的工作经验,我擅长什么,而是把我当成一个螺丝钉,布置我做按部就班的工作,把基础工作做到极致。

之前在工作当中很契合的、一起碰撞创意灵感的同事先后离开,只剩下一两个,零零散散的。我有种失落感,也了解到不少同事很难找到令自己满意的新工作。于是我发现自己变怂了,考虑要先稳住工作,稳住存款,那就先苟着吧。

客观来讲,我觉得或许这是一家公司面对周期而做出的最好决定了。降本肯定要降的,有试错成本的事就不敢做了。对老板来说肯定也想先稳住资产,不倒闭,发出工资,至于做行业龙头什么的就先别想了。对员工来说就是稳住工作,其他别想了。

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民营背景的购物中心,

吸引品牌入驻变难了。

疫情前的三到五年里,都是品牌方去拜访购物中心,求着购物中心给个好位置啥的。现在,很多连锁品牌的拓店计划都收缩了。购物中心的人得跑出去问品牌今年有拓店计划吗?人家可能说我今年只能做一个新店,已经有四家购物中心来找过我了。

对购物中心来说,以前要挑符合商场定位的品牌。现在可能很多商场开业的时候你会觉得奇怪,这家商场到底是什么定位?为什么会有一堆定位不匹配的品牌堆在这边?商场也没办法,今天它解决不了好不好的问题,先解决有没有的问题。因为出租率得先上去,才有机会慢慢调整入驻品牌,逐渐符合定位。

今天想要一步到位吸引符合定位的品牌入驻,对于民营性质的商业地产公司是蛮难的。国央企的商业地产项目比较受品牌方的偏好,品牌会认为国央企的项目资源比较好,稳定性也好一些,因为它们的位置会拍得比较好,也不存在资金链的风险,因为稳定,也能吸引到较高质量的运营人才,营销费用也没有像民企砍得那么多。

疫情前有些商场一年花百万甚至千万级别的营销费用去做策展,现在营销费用砍下来了,内容创意肯定没以前好,吸引流量的能力就进一步下降了。但是没办法,今天消费者想的都是稳住存款,没那么有消费力了,就算花再多的营销费用,消费者也是来逛而不是来花钱的。

今年有一家商场开业,位置还不错,但没有把卫生间细节搞得很人性化,导致消费者在开业第一天就吐槽,怎么感觉从一线城市突然到四线了。如果消费者有这样的感受,品牌商也会有这样的感受。我也能理解,房地产商很可能没有钱了,但是商场要先开起来再说。

现在一些商场有病急乱投医的状态,今天看到别人家做宠物了,也跟着做个宠物活动,明天搞一个市集。我的一个商场的朋友开始帮品牌商户做直播了,他说其实也卖不掉什么,但是一定要做满一定时间,有KPI考核的。这些做法解决不了问题。我觉得源头就还是要去研究消费者的感受,消费者真正关心的是什么,把钱花在他们真正care 的地方。

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先把眼下渡过去。

我觉得不少人都变成缩头乌龟了。我有一个媒体的朋友,专门帮主理人品牌找投资的。我正好有几个主理人朋友想要找投资人,就去问她有没有好投资人推荐,她说如果是你朋友叫他们别做了。其实大家都没有信心,虽然在一些商务场合会相互鼓鼓劲,但是信心是需要有实际的案例成果的。现在很多的案例还是包装的成分比较高。

23年的时候还是希望看到曙光的,现在已经不那么在意后面到底是向上还是向下了。早两年还会讲不确定,现在连不确定都不会讲了,就是先过好眼门前,没有那么多人去为未来打算。同行有些朋友的KPI考核经常把下个月的工作成果算到这个月来,你问他下个月的KPI怎么办?他说先稳住这个月再说吧。再比如以前会做理财的朋友,现在理财都不怎么做了,存款利率再低也存。当然,我只能说我们这种老百姓,那种大咖的情况我不知道。

我的一些亲戚原来是准备把小孩送到国外去读书的,现在都“烂尾”了,不送了。因为送出去之后一是不知道在国外会怎么样,二是以后回来找工作也没什么高薪的机会了。不如把去国外的钱以后当工资发给孩子好了。

大家对长期的投资都没有信心了,都是做好最坏打算了。我们见面都是说希望明年我们不管在不在这个行业,大家还能再见面,能开开心心地聊一聊就好了。以前见面都是聊有什么合作机会,现在见面都是聊家常、聊身体,谈谈自己身上有了几个结节。

大家都会更加关注自己的健康,因为当外部资源充满不确定性的时候,你能够做到的就是保护好自己身体这个资产。

我以前做事风风火火,现在做什么事先告诉自己缓一缓,不要着急,不要强求。比如工作当中碰到一些事情跟我的衡量标准不一样,我会去适应别人,不要让自己生气,生气就会有结节。我要去相信别人提出的需求和见解都是有合理性的,你怎么确定你的决定最后的结果会更好?也不能确定。大家都不要为难大家了。

虽然现在着眼于过好短期的每一天,但我还是在学习一些课程。比如基金类从业资格类的课程,我在前年已经自学完成,临考试报名发现报不了,因为当时限定只能专职从业人员才能考,现在非专职从业者又可以考了,我想明年考一下。还有CMA管理会计师,对职业经理人掌握必备的财务管理思维会有帮助,学这个不为考证,纯粹是为了给自己扩展认知。随着消费基础设施Reits 这样的新政成熟,相信在我日后工作中能用得上,让自己更有竞争力。

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整个价值链上下游所有人的

日子都变得更难了。

食品饮料行业算是国计民生了,正常情况下应该非常稳,但今年我最大的感受就是难。感觉整个价值链上下游所有人的日子都变得更难了,“降本增效”成为基调。

真正感觉到压力是在第二季度之后。上半年大家都还卯着劲想做出起色,但是618 表现平平,营销和促销活动效果变差了,库存清不掉了,线上线下都没有变好,年中发现业绩和指标的差异那么大。以往季度性开的会,变成月度开,最后恨不得周周都在对数据。

以乳制品为例,今年液奶销量掉了挺多,因为牛奶量可能供大于求了,价格战就来了。白奶价格拉低,一些功能性的、高附加值的产品也开始做更多促销,整个盘子的利润就拉低了。乳制品这个一直在涨的行业,感觉遭遇了三聚氰胺以来最难的一年。

我所感受到的消费降级主要是两种,一种是社交热情下降,就是提着一箱箱的奶走动送礼的情况少了,另一种是日常消费热情下降,因为消费者对未来预期没那么昂扬了,有实惠的就买实惠的。

国家要保证底层农户的收入,听说一些地方政府会帮助畜牧业,否则农户就真的要杀牛了,因为市场需求萎缩了。有些国企或者地方支持的企业,有社会责任和义务,需要保证农户收入,产量不敢降太多,这就需要牺牲一些利润,降价促销把产品销出去。而这样的行业环境,对于在意利润的企业来说就非常有压力了,比如对上市公司来说利润就更直接影响股价。

这两年感受到地方政府的压力也大了,要求企业的合作变多了。举个例子,今年地方政府也有他们的产能指标,可能是产奶的吨数,他们会为了达到指标提出希望我们完成多少吨的季度指标,如果完成指标会有一些税务上的优惠或有补贴。但是我们因为需要保证产品体验和新鲜度的要求,还是没有完成这个季度指标。

注:相关数据

国家统计局数据显示,2024年1月至6月,国内牛奶产量1856万吨,同比增长3.4%;规模乳企乳制品产量1433万吨,同比减少3%,奶产量增速高于消费量增速。

据上市公司披露数据,36家乳企中,13家出现亏损,24家净利润下降,亏损面较去年同期有扩大,盈利水平呈下降趋势。24家乳企净利润下降幅度均在双位数以上。13家亏损乳企中,奶牛养殖企业占据7席。(《东方财富网》

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不停换动作换人,

折腾一通累死,但收效甚少。

连续不达标是今年的事,去年我们的业务还多多少少有增长。我们公司整体来看2023年也是增长的。现在公司里最大的学问变成如何合理地设定指标?从组织到个体上,怎么调试预期?如果调低之后还没达成目标怎么办?没人有标准答案。

往年到第四季度,合作的经销商还能帮你达成销售指标,今年经销商不敢帮这个忙,因为对未来的预期是下降的,这就特别像房地产——去不了库存。

今年我们不得不在各种夹缝中找机会,任何一个小机会都不放过。以往做完年度计划,就大概知道这一年的节奏了。但是今年,非常规的动作很多,折腾一通累死,可有效的东西有限。最后发现维持销量都很难,可是不做这些事,又怕销量掉得更惨。

我们天天加班到8、 9 点,一个月只有一两天可以早点回家。不停出差看市场,做这个分析、那个分析,后来公司就开始换人、换组织,在更高的层面,品牌投资、定价策略的章法打乱了,开始搞更低价位的产品了。

整体感觉就是越来越只看眼前,动作不停,有时缺乏一致性和连续性。有时链路的影响传导比较缓慢,过了三四个月才发现一件事做错了。有些人或者部门没达成业绩目标被换掉,很多看不见的价值也连带损失掉了。过一段时间之后才发现其实并不是个体的问题,是体系的问题,是需求端的问题,但是人已经换了。

本来我管理的就是一个挑战性的生意,这两年刚开始琢磨到一点规律,包括怎么做到价值回归,从端到端怎么做,需要怎么聚焦等。但是现在感觉组织协同性变差了,各部门都有压力,大家都挺急的。以前增长目标跳跳够得着,有资源支持,互相配合,做起来会更顺利,现在跨部门做事没那么顺了。

组织跟个体一样,如果没有失败过,面对失败都不知道从哪开始反思,自己还没想清楚怎么办呢就迫于压力去做补偿动作了,慢不下来。你不敢承认或许已经生病了,更无法判断这病是肿瘤还是炎症,缺乏有效的诊断体系。原来不管增长快、增长慢,你是有参考的。现在谁都没有正确答案。坐标体系变了,每个人都在边猜边移动。

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仅仅为了维持收入稳定,

也要花比以前更大的力气。

整体感觉就是不安,因为你觉得一定得改变,但是又不知道这个改变落到自己身上会是什么。看到有时职级高的人跌倒得好突然,就会担心什么时候轮到自己。看到好的业务都做得不好了,就会担心自己这块业务还稳不稳。时常听到沮丧的消息,没达成指标从一次、两次变成一个长期的状况,就会觉得很疲惫。

个体层面上,我们今年整体工资是稳的,但奖金明显变少了,因为指标达不成了。

我们公司这几年有比以往更频繁的工作内容或者职位调动,但是没有裁员。就我个人而言,之前有一阵子我的不安在于,如果这个工作消耗得那么多,我应该用什么样的标准去找下一份工作?要怎样看待我的职业生涯?

不过后来,多亏了一个自我支持的网络,我发现在大环境不好的时候,我的心态还算是稳的。我也想把我的状态传递给身边的同事和朋友们,所以在闲暇时间会给别人做音乐疗愈或心理辅导,我没有考虑过把它当成一个收入的手段,但我觉得好像这么做能消解我在职业上遇到的挫折,获得价值感。

我发现自己从“这个生意能涨几个点”这么宏大的自己毫无控制力的事情,回到我能具象地得到幸福感的事情上,可能跟这个人聊完一小时之后,大家都变开心了,我就很乐意做这样的事。

我用这种方式来“维稳”。如果真的要考虑今天该跳哪个槽?哪个公司怎么样?我觉得是没头没尾的问题,会越来越慌。

疫情前,我关于职业生涯的观感是面向整个世界的,由于教育背景,会觉得去海外工作不是很遥远的事。我身边的朋友去国外工作,我会觉得那就是很正常的一个选择。疫情后即便2022年我都仍然这么想,但是 2023 年我开始真正感觉到了封闭。今年这种封闭感更强了,都别说是海外了,在中国之内应该怎么走都看不清。

以前我通过社交媒体和在国外的朋友,对其他国家的事多多少少是知道的。我也经常往国外跑。疫情封闭之后,且不说外部因素,我自己就越来越觉得累,对他人的关心就少很多,也自我关闭了一些获取外界信息的渠道。两三年下来,我对外界的职场或市场在发生什么就知道得很少了。虽然了解国外的信息渠道一直在那里,但是我觉得世界哪都不咋地,对国外的工作和生活也没有那么向往了。

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今年最大的变化是,我休假会重复性地去同一个地方休息。以前向外探索的时候,感觉世界是向我打开的,现在我要在我和世界之间隔一层,度假的时候选择跟大自然贴近,跟人群远离。

今年开始我对于未来收入的预期也变了。我一直不是一个靠职级或收入来评估自己价值的人,但是多多少少会觉得我的收入会稳中向上。但是今年看到房地产的趋势,看到好多地方裁员,看到好多人突然从顶峰下落,难免要想到自己。究竟什么是我的理想状态?我是要一个劲儿向上拼?还是到一个什么样的状态就够了?

原来我以为个人能力大于环境时代,现在亲身体验到职业成功大部分是时代环境造就,而非个体造就的。我已经不再找那个峰值了,就想减少波动性。对于职业生涯我也不考虑那么远了,就想下个月、下个季度能不能维持稳定,不被换掉。

但是现在仅仅是想减少波动维持稳定,也需要花比以前更大的力气。

对于工作我也从关注长远的目标变成关注日常能做什么,怎么把手头的项目做扎实。我觉得我还是挺享受日常工作的,今年扎扎实实地做了一些项目,重新开始和领导和团队系统地思考策略,增长一些认知,从日常的事务里找到喜欢这个工作的理由。

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人员太稳定了,

年轻人没有上升空间。

我们这个行业以前人员流动是很频繁的,这两年却非常稳定。这就导致年轻人上不去。95后毕业生们学习速度快,能力强,但就是很难升上去,永远只能负责一小块。有些年轻人就会选择去互联网大厂、或者去考公、或者离开北京。如果不离开,升职的空间也有限,公司更多是通过横向的移动,为他们提供学习机会。

我今天还看到朋友圈里一个985的小姑娘在“发疯”,以前大学生储备一个方向就行了,要么找工作要么留学要么考公,她已经三手抓了,可是年底了还没拿到工作的offer,也没有拿到出国留学的offer,她最后还是要报名考公。

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我们中国区的成长趋势戛然而止,

变得非常保守。

用一个关键词来形容这几年就是“不确定”。我们公司受到了两方面的冲击。

一方面是内部的调整。公司前几年战略调整,以提升利润率为这个阶段的首要目标,做了组织架构调整,减少了创新上的投入,加大力度提升线上销量。这种改变在当时是符合整个商业浪潮的,在一段时间里也看到了好的生意走向。那时公司大概对自己品牌的 Equity (品牌资产)有足够的信心,但是这样“强销量弱创新”几年下来,发现品牌资产还是受到了一些打击的。

另一方面的冲击来自高度意识形态化的舆论环境。从2021 年的新疆棉事件开始,我们在中国区的成长趋势戛然而止,士气受挫。同事们都觉得过去三年我们已经不像自己了,变得非常保守。所有对外的发声都处在一种高度防御的、高敏感的状态。甚至一个模特的眼睛不是双眼皮都会被消费者诟病。

我们这个品牌本来是非常忠于体育精神、不断主动出击的品牌。在这些冲击下,在中国大陆地区我们经历了长达2年的保守状态。

新疆棉事件之后,我们停止了一切 Campaign,和明星解约,整个公司进入一种不发出任何声音的状态,在所有平台,甚至包括短信都不再主动触达消费者。噤声状态下我们在各大平台的流量在一个月内就跌到谷底。几个月之后才慢慢恢复小范围面向用户的沟通。

这几年,我们最大的牺牲就是不再做品牌层面的宣传,全面地回归到产品的沟通,以前哪怕产品的沟通都有一个背后的 narrative (叙事) ,但是近两年的产品沟通就只讲功能。2023 年我们才慢慢开始恢复表达观点,但是观点还是非常中庸。

我感觉我们的品牌沟通曾经一度想对所有人说话,现在越发觉得应该只对我们真正的用户说话。这是蛮大的变化,我觉得也是好事。以跑步为例,以前我们会给跑步包装糖衣,美化它,把它说的一点也不难,还非常快乐。但是今年我们不再美化它了,跑步就是痛苦的,但有人还是爱它。我觉得这反而是我们想回归的真实的运动。今年奥运期间的广告初入市场有很多争议,但是那是我们品牌对运动精神的坚守,而这些争议随着一些现象级的胜利,开始赢得认可。我个人猜想,在运动的世界里,“赢”不只是一种结果,更是一种心气儿,这种渴望拿下胜利的心气儿是有感染力的。

政策对我们也有影响,比如2022年开始,所有用户数据不允许出海。我认识的几乎所有外资品牌都重新做了一遍自己在国内的数字平台,包括官网、小程序和APP。这种感觉就像在高速公路上行驶的途中换轮胎。

用户看到的只是这些数字平台的前端,但是后端要对接供应链、动态库存管理、物流系统、交易系统、会员系统,所有接口重新做一遍。在资源有限的情况下,不得不做出取舍,有些APP 只得退出中国市场。现在两年过去了,功能才基本恢复完整,才有精力开始续上几年前戛然而止的功能开发,重新开始追赶国内原本就很超前的数字应用体验和能力。

这两年的消费降级主要影响了我们在低价位段的市场份额。从数据上看,目前我们最擅长的还是高价位的产品,比如1200以上的鞋,但是在800-1200价位段优势就微弱了,600-800元及600元以下的市场份额就丢的很厉害。以前可能有品牌光环,大家愿意买打折产品,但是现在消费者宁愿去买同价位的国产品牌。矛盾的是,工厂店春节期间大排长龙,所有工厂店春节期间的销售都远超预期。

过年回老家的时候,我发现我的哥哥弟弟姐姐妹妹穿的都是FILA。我们天猫上最大的竞争对手就是FILA,之前我一直纳闷是谁在买FILA,因为我在北上广几乎看不到。出去旅游会发现那种公务员家庭全家人都穿科隆(Kolon)和迪桑特(Descente)这种品牌。这只是我个人的观察,也没有量化。我猜想体制内的人对于明显的海外品牌,尤其美资品牌会敏感,但迪桑特这种品牌形象没有那么鲜明,商标小小的,会被看作是一种安全的选择。包括FILA,虽然是意大利品牌,但是因为被安踏收购了,也有安踏的光环,体制内穿也很安全。但是有趣的是,我老家做公务员的亲戚会给自己的小孩买我家品牌。

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我相信品牌还是重要的。

现在我觉得我们在一个 U-turn 刚刚转过弯的地方,我自己是有点乐观的,而且我觉得这可能不只是我们品牌的 U-turn,也是一种趋势的开始。

虽然现在有一种说法,新品牌都靠产品,不需要广告。但我觉得重要的不是你拍一条广告片,重要的是品牌有观点,知道自己是谁。尽管有消费降级、有意识形态的撕裂,作为一个品牌讲清楚你是谁仍然是重要的。

我们今年做了一些引发争论的事,但是我们重新做回有自己主张的品牌,这是对的。你说鞋子的差异性能有多大?现在技术材料本身的可获得性是很高的,因此做差异化还是需要品牌。

我们今年做了一些线下活动,也给了我很大信心。我在活动上亲眼看见热爱跑步的人,听到他们分享自己真实的故事。我相信我们会做更多以前经常做的事,包括线下活动,还是要真的去到消费者面前去沟通。另外也要提供更多切实的服务和体验,包括我们现在有几十家(经销商)店铺是有跑团的,每周一起跑步一到两次,他们之间会形成非常强烈的关系,这是真实的人际关系。

品牌资产是要累积的。只要品牌停止了这方面的投资,品牌资产就在丢失,你甚至不用做什么损害它的事,它自己就流失了。

有些国产品牌的进步很快,也招揽了许多资深内行人士,扎实地深耕产品创新和用户体验。撇开竞品关系,单纯作为热爱运动的人,我很尊敬它们,而且中国运动文化的普及和深化需要整个市场共同努力。但是,也还是有些鱼龙混杂的做法存在。我尤其关注品牌与职业运动员的合作模式,到底是在把他们当作工具,甚至不惜做出违背体育精神和有损运动员生涯的事,还是秉持共赢,助力运动员长足进步,签约运动员其实冷暖自知。

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心理上的脆弱性,

让大家避免冲突,不敢讲真话。

以前觉得升职是件容易的事,做得好就有机会。现在大家都明白上升通道非常有限了。不仅向上流动少了,从前有很多跨区域的流动,现在这种横向流动也少了。另外,外国人的含量也急剧下降。疫情前我日常沟通中大概10-15% 是外国人,现在很少碰到外国人了。市场部领导层之前有一半是外国人,现在只有两三个。

我每周都要给负责创意的老板们讲我们的创意。以前我得费劲用蹩脚的英文讲一些本地的洞察,他们的观点不一定对,但是因为文化背景不同,总会给我一些没想到的角度。现在大家背景都差不多,我能获得的挑战跟激发就少很多。这对创意而言不是好事,大家做的东西容易陷入一种套路。

我们涨薪的政策调整了,在组织架构调整的时候,有些人接到了降级降薪的offer,就看他们接不接受这个offer。但很少听到关于待遇的抱怨,可能因为总体来说薪水还是体面的,年假比较多,也会给大家相对的自由,比如夏天的周五下午不用上班。整体而言这是一个比较尊重人的公司。

这几年公司文化是有变化的。过去大家争论问题都蛮大胆,我甚至听到过很激烈的讨论。大家秉持体育精神,很直接,没有商务吹捧。这两年不太敢讲真话了,跟社会整体的变化有关系,可能心理上的脆弱性,让大家避免正面冲突,包括年轻一代好像会很难接受负面反馈。现在我们每年还有一些和心理健康有关的福利假期,就是因为公司感觉到大家有过于焦虑的情况,需要调整工作状态。

我们一直是卷的,现在仍然卷,但是以前卷是为了把东西做得更好,自己逼自己。现在还有一种卷是在卷彼此的credits(功劳)。可能大家都经历了裁员,会想为自己赢得更多的成绩,在老板面前争取曝光度。大家觉得如果自己是个小透明就会成为下一轮被裁的人。

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世界很割裂,

反而激发了我的好奇心。

不管是疫情期间还是过去一年,我的职责一直在调整。我今年1月接了一个新角色,在一个大家都在变化的过程中,我要很快地找到自己的位置。今年我的工作是超饱和的。工作日周一至周四,我早八晚九,不过一般周五到周六日我们不太会加班。

今年夏天有一阵子我在看心理医生,因为我有点burn out。我自己也尝试了各种办法,包括坦诚地跟老板讲我压力太大。我也尝试了一个情绪训练营,进到一个20天的计划里,每天在社群里打卡一些轻量化的心理学小任务,包括冥想、呼吸等。最后我发现对我来说唯一有用的还是去把事情一点点做出来,在这个过程中我的的情绪问题反而就被解决了。

过去四年是我看书看得最密集的时间,这个世界有很多的割裂,反而激发了我的好奇心,重新回到不断学习、好奇心旺盛的状态。所以即便我压力很大,也很忙,但是自我满足感是高的。

我已经40岁了,我觉得我还在自己的奥德赛阶段(注:奥德赛阶段,指介于青春期和成年期,自我探索和寻找时期),好像人家的青春期是奥德赛,我到现在还在寻找,我觉得一直在探索这件事情本身给我比较大的满足感。

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身处重点发展行业,我感觉到的不是欣欣向荣,而是竞争的残酷。

我是2021年加入这家公司的,当时新能源汽车行业正如火如荼,现在进入回归冷静、回归商业本质的阶段了。

这几年政策退坡一直在发生。最早的时候,政策补贴非常厉害,以至于很多企业就是去骗补的,他们造的车不用卖出去,单是拿补贴都能赚钱。最早是补钱,后来是购置税减免,现在购置税减免马上也要结束了。

这个行业的另一个处境就是竞争残酷。因为其他经济板块不行了,尤其像房地产这种支柱产业不行了,新能源赛道就有很多钱涌进来。其实背后的投资非常复杂,很多资本在理想、蔚来、小鹏都有投资,包括雷军自己也投资其他车企,也自己造车,华为也躬身入局。总之资本想进这个行业,智能产业要转型,也会进入这个领域,导致竞争加剧。

以前车企每个月发一次销量,现在一些特别卷的品牌恨不得每三天发一次销量,让优秀的人卷到更多钱,拿到更多销量,也让销量惨淡的品牌快速淘汰出局。很多品牌怨声载道,因为你不发自己的作业,会有人帮你发出来。水军、黑粉、红粉这一套,车企也玩得很溜了。前阵子理想MEGA 汽车遭水军攻击,也有竞争品牌的员工被警方调查。

汽车用户也在消费降级。以前消费者购车会先定义自己要买什么级的车,A级、B级、还是C级,今天根本不考虑级别,就是跨级、跨价格段、跨能源形式、跨座位数,全部放在一起比价格。

价格战打得特别厉害,比亚迪一个月可以卖四五十万辆,就是因为它的很多产品都是七万、八万、九万就能买到以前 15 万的体验。特斯拉也一样,从一个 80 万的品牌慢慢变成一辆车只要二十万出头。所以合资车,像本田、丰田、大众、奥迪、奔驰、宝马这些品牌压力非常大。

竞争激烈到什么程度呢,举个例子,过去一辆车研发周期要五年,现在最快也要两年,意味着它还是一个长周期的产品。往往一个产品还没有交付出来的时候,这个产品的市场站位已经被占了。华为体系一年可以出四五辆车,它把智能科技品类的节奏带到汽车品类里来了。

大家节奏都越来越快。很多时候你发现你明年要交付的产品已经不如竞争对手今年交付的产品了,这是很痛苦的,怎么办?是降价,还是回炉重造?压力写在每个人脸上。

身处这个行业感到的紧迫性和不确定性很像在互联网大厂的感觉。裁员是很日常的事情。理想是分产品线裁员的,纯电产品线几乎腰斩。蔚来去年(2023年)裁了一波,大概裁了20%的岗位。合资公司裁员更厉害,大众、福特都裁员了。我在福特的几个朋友都是拿了大礼包走的。

这两年不断有品牌在告急,前年是威马,去年是高合,眼前极越汽车一夜解散,通用破产警告,福特电车退出中国,每隔几个月都能听到一个你觉得是“巨大的骆驼”倒下的消息。

这种残酷的感觉是疫情后开始的,疫情期间大家还有盼头,觉得疫情过去会好起来。但是后来大家发现经济起不来。2023年初,我觉得很多投资人反应过来了。以前新势力造车去融资很容易,但是疫情之后投资人更审慎,新势力汽车公司的现金流远不及过去健康。

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国人普遍乐观,我在行业之中,

并没有这么乐观。

中国在智能电动车的赛道算是弯道超车了。在油车时代国产车是没办法跟国外品牌对抗的,品牌溢价很有限,而现在中国品牌可以要高价,理想、蔚来、问界是有一定的品牌溢价的。国产品牌的份额和心智上升得非常快,合资品牌正在失势。今天这些头部国产品牌更懂得中国消费者的需求,在产品定义上、营销沟通上比过去的合资品牌要技高好几筹。当然特斯拉仍然是强有力的竞争对手。

国人好像普遍乐观,但是我处在行业之中,并没有这么乐观。先说芯片,论研发水平中国已经步入世界一流,但如果谈到制造水平,例如3纳米、 5 纳米高精尖的芯片,中国与世界顶尖水平仍然存在一定距离。

一辆车要装载上千枚芯片,有通信的、娱乐的、传感器的、自动驾驶等等各种芯片。芯片卡脖子就会让整车的交付能力很差。咱们现在的智能汽车大部分用的还是国外的芯片。中国公司自己研发芯片也有流片成功的,但是真正到成熟量产可用,还有很长一段路要走。芯片制造工艺特别复杂,造芯片的设备都是既高精尖又重资产的东西,一套设备的研发和制造可能就是几十亿、上百亿级别的。

我们在技术上的差距还很大。举个例子,我们在智能驾驶上现在几千块钱成本做出来的东西,仍然赶不上特斯拉几年前就可以花几百块钱成本做出来的结果。我自己有两台智能汽车,一台特斯拉是好几年前买的,还有一台国产智能汽车。特斯拉低成本的视觉方案的体验比国产车几千块配备激光雷达的体验还要好,这两辆车开起来的感觉,一个是游刃有余的老司机,一个是愣头愣脑的机器。这就特别像苹果机和安卓机的对比,安卓机可能各种堆料,苹果机用的CPU算力、内存、分辨率可能都不如你,但就是能把体验做得很丝滑。

这个行业的另一个挑战就是顶尖人才的流失。今年小鹏自动驾驶负责人就去了英伟达。我周边有两个朋友要读博的时候,一个学视觉算法,一个学自动驾驶,几年前他们一个拿了德国的offer,一个拿了美国的 offer 走了。

另外,整体市场的凉意是每个人都能感觉到的,我好朋友今年换了房,几年前买的房子缩水了100多万。但是感觉大家对于这种事情也不太大惊小怪了,时代的雪崩中,每个人头上都会落几片雪花吧。

注:相关数据

据中国汽车工业协会分析,1-11月我国汽车产销累计完成2790.3万辆和2794万辆,同比分别增长2.9%和3.7%。1-11月,新能源汽车产销累计完成1134.5万辆和1126.2万辆,同比分别增长34.6%和35.6%,新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的40.3%。合资/进口车市场占有率下降,今年10月,中国品牌乘用车共销售193.1万辆,市场占比首次超过70%的大关。

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我看到很多曾经努力的人在往回退。

虽然说站在公司的角度会比较担忧。但在个人层面不是很担忧。我想自己有一技之长,即使这个公司没了,我可以再找其他工作。

这两年人的状态还是有变化的。如果说把同事分为两类人,一种是聪明地躺平,一种是进取的。这两年“躺”的人肯定是在增多的。我自己曾经属于进取的一类,总希望能真正影响决策者,但是越想改变点什么,结果越是会预期违背,不仅建议不一定被采纳,反而要背更多锅。

所以我越来越倾向于聪明地躺平,只做我自己觉得重要的、有影响的事,其他事都会尽可能地推掉。不让自己陷入一个苦哈哈的状态,努力得比较"克制"。不仅是我,我看到很多曾经努力的人在往回退,包括我这个年纪的,也包括刚毕业的年轻人。

还有一个因素,就是现在升职和涨薪是完全不相关的。HR (人力资源部)冠冕堂皇地说在这家公司,但凡不跳槽,想要收入增长是非常难的。你可能获得一个很大的升职,加薪寥寥无几。这几年也没有普涨这个概念了,也没有年终奖,就连写在合同里的也没有了。

今年我把更多时间和感知力都放回到家庭里去。每周至少运动两次,除了项目要出差或加班,10 天里面有 8 ~ 9 天都准时回家跟家人一起吃饭,陪孩子玩,给孩子洗澡,陪孩子睡觉。我自己也享受在其中。周末一定会有一场运动,会有休息时间。基本上每个周末至少有一整天可以保证是家庭活动时间。

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特别优秀的年轻人

却只能做一些螺丝钉的事。

智能汽车这个行业相对来说民企还是比较有竞争力的。我在上海比较熟悉上汽(国企)。上汽一些优秀的人都在往互联网造车的民企跳。上汽的很多品牌也是不停地重组,有些甚至退市了。上汽的人对自己的评价就是发的出来工资,背后的保障还是在的,但是也没有什么发展的机会。里面还是很官僚的,比如听说上汽还是用上海话,不讲普通话的。

所以优秀的年轻人还是在行业头部的几家公司,就是比亚迪、华为、理想、小鹏、蔚来。

但是我们现在社招都不招了。招实习生只看清北本科、211 的研究生或者藤校的毕业生。实习生过来就纯“刷履历”,我们会第一天就跟他们明确说我们没有headcount ,实习之后留不下来的。身边的实习生都是哈佛、MIT、藤校的。在我看来很多实习生的能力都是超过他们的 mentor (上级)的,有一种倒挂的感觉。因为这个赛道的命运还没有被充分定义,还有想象的空间,所以还是很多人想进的。

我们部门好几十人,就只有2个应届毕业生。他们展现出来的质素很高,但他们在这边工作得挺不开心,觉得价值发挥不出来,做一些小螺丝钉的事情,每天做得很麻木。

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每周发销量排行榜,

然后大家在排行榜上各自加定语。

2019 年5月16日美国商务部第一次宣布对华为制裁,大家第一次发现一个国家竟然能够动用国家力量来制裁一家企业。从公司来讲,那时候势头已经非常好了,突破千亿美金收入,手机全球市场份额已经快登顶了。制裁之后经历了几年的低谷期,最直观来讲,我们的年终奖下降了。

我觉得从 2023 年9月 MATE 60 发布之后,公司又呈现一个上升趋势。因为 Mate 60 的发布,我们比全社会预期的要更早一些解决了美国制裁的制约,大家都感觉很鼓舞和提振士气。而在那个时机我们又提出鸿蒙原生应用全面启动,也就是要做真正中国独立自主的操作系统,我认为这也是一个合适的时机,因为合作伙伴对华为的未来重拾了信心。

今年又推出了一些创新性的产品,9 月份发布了全球首款三折叠手机,虽然卖得挺贵,但因为辨识性明显,还是供不应求。我们之前就说如果华为作为中国市场上的 top 玩家,能把价格和 iPhone 拉齐,这对整个供应链以及其他的手机品牌都是好事——这样大家才都有肉吃。只有你能让行业上下游都挣到钱,大家才能拿出更多钱去做技术投入,这个行业才能真正发展起来。

当然产品的创新度要能够支撑溢价。去年发布的六座车 M9 是一款超过 50 万的新能源SUV,销得也很好。当时我们有个调研发现,买 M9 的用户基本上都是从奔驰、宝马、奥迪换车过来的。前段时间预热亮相的一款旗舰车,价格在 100 万至 150 万之间,开启预定后没想到两天内就有 2, 000 多个预定。同等价位的豪车在中国市场上一年也就售出 2, 000 多辆。一方面说明说明富裕层还是保持着购买力,另一方面说明像车企,手机行业的卷带来的效果是行业整体品牌认知度和信任感的提升,消费者愿意为此买单。

今年我还有一个感觉就是大家更卷了。手机品牌过去可能一年只发布两次,现在很多品牌半年就开好几场发布会。因为每个季度都会有市场份额的排名,手机厂商压力也很大。车企更卷,每周都有排行榜。大家在这个排行榜上各自去加定语,比如我是哪个细分市场的前三,寻找一种有利于自己的数据表达。

我目前在做原生鸿蒙操作系统的工作。这个操作系统的意义非常重大,如果有一天美国极限打压我们,不让中国的手机使用 iOS 和安卓的操作系统,我们还能有中国人自己的操作系统。因此,党政央媒很理解这个意义,原生鸿蒙发布的时候,记者来做全方面的采访,连续上了新闻联播,焦点访谈,东方时空等,史无前例。

建立这个操作系统最难的是需要说服那些应用的拥有者尽快适配。应用的拥有者有的是公司,有的是政府,比如广东省用的是粤省事,浙江是浙里办,上海是随申办。我们今年跑了很多省市,对方都是理解这个国家和产业意义,比较支持,乐于起示范作用。但是从上面的领导认可,到下面的技术人员去投入去执行,实际行动起来有些没有预期中快,原因也有很多,比如一些地方预算吃紧,因此我们也会拿出很多激励和扶持措施。我们在干一个过去没有干过的事情,摸索着前进,因此今年非常忙,完全在打一场新的战争。

尽管公司在逆势上扬,但是大环境的艰难我还是能感知到的。我们家在前些年换房子的时候,把家里的存款几乎用尽了,但是当时很有信心,并没有那么大的压力。现在手上的存款比那时候多了,但是你让我现在换房子我是不敢的。信心还是受大环境影响的。

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外包很难招到优秀的年轻人了

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我们不太有裁员的压力,总感觉人是不够用的。社招比较少了,但是我们一直在通过人力外包公司去招聘。很奇怪的是,以前我们外包还能招到一些不错学校毕业的年轻人,他们愿意在这里积累两三年经验,作为跳板再转去其他公司做正式员工。现在外包招聘的候选人素质整体不如以前。我很好奇,外包岗位薪资并不算低,却招不到人。市面上一直说大学生都找不到工作。他们都去哪了?

中美之争或影响英伟达全球芯片销售

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中美之争或影响英伟达全球芯片销售

TRIPP MICKLE, 孟建国
Brandon Celi
8月初,不丹国王吉格梅·凯萨尔·纳姆耶尔·旺楚克从自己位于亚洲内陆高山的国家来到地势平坦的硅谷,参观了人工智能芯片制造商英伟达的总部。
旺楚克国王进行了两个小时的参观,期间英伟达全球业务负责人杰伊·普里向其介绍了不丹在数据中心以及在英伟达芯片方面的投资如何能与该国最大的自然资源——水电结合起来,以创建新的人工智能系统。
这一提案是英伟达过去两年向各国国王、总统、酋长和政府部长提出的数十项建议之一。许多国家随后投入数十亿美元用于建设超级计算机或生成式人工智能系统,希望能藉此在可能定义本世纪的技术中占据竞争优势。
然而,在华盛顿,官员们担心英伟达的全球大推销可能会增强对手的力量。拜登政府正在制定规则,以加强对人工智能芯片销售的控制,并将其转化为外交工具。
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据四位知情人士透露,该提议框架允许美国盟友进行不受限制的采购,而对手国家的采购则将被完全禁止,其他国家要根据其与美国战略目标保持一致的程度获得配额。这些人士因无权公开发言而要求匿名。
这些限制将威胁到英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋所谓的“主权人工智能”计划。他今秋在全球东奔西走,三个月内飞行超过3万英里,而他的公司预计今年在美国以外的国家销售额将超过100亿美元。
现在,像沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚和不丹这样的潜在买方可能会被卷入美中之间的人工智能霸权竞争中。对英伟达芯片的采购可能需要与经过批准的美欧云服务运营商合作,并向美国政府提供其他保证,以确保技术不会与中国共享。
黄仁勋已经发起最后一刻的游说行动,试图削弱这些规则,但可能为时已晚。
“每届政府都非常明确表示,除非中国政府改变其在全球舞台上的姿态和运作方式,否则美中之间的技术竞争将继续,”美国企业研究所专注于国家安全和技术的非常驻高级研究员克隆·基钦表示。“像英伟达这样的公司应该早就预料到监管会收紧。”
“一场兴趣海啸”
2019年,出身于现塞尔维亚的英伟达前高管萨沙·奥斯托伊奇了解到他的祖国正在考虑从中国公司华为购买人工智能芯片,以支持本国初创企业。他建议塞尔维亚官员先去英伟达一趟。
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在参观过英伟达总部后,塞尔维亚领导人被说服了:购买四台英伟达超级计算机(每台约50万美元)将有助于加速其科技行业发展。
塞尔维亚议会主席顾问斯特凡·巴扎表示,一些塞尔维亚人对这笔投资表示质疑。但在2021年收到这些计算机后,塞尔维亚的初创企业从200家增至800家。
2022年末,OpenAI发布ChatGPT,瞬间成为热门话题,这让塞尔维亚的举措显得明智。这个由人工智能驱动的聊天机器人引发了对英伟达人工智能芯片的狂热需求,该公司控制该市场90%的份额。即便ChatGPT在包括沙特阿拉伯和越南在内的20多个国家都无法使用,部分国家仍然争先恐后地要获得芯片,有一部分原因是如果这些地方想要人工智能技术,显然只能自己搭建起这种技术。
本月,英伟达的杰伊·普里和黄仁勋与越南总理范明政及该国计划与投资部长阮志勇在河内合影。
本月,英伟达的杰伊·普里和黄仁勋与越南总理范明政及该国计划与投资部长阮志勇在河内合影。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“这一意外的后果在这个社群中引起了反响,那就是这是一项非常重要的技术,你大概率不想在这方面依赖外国,”曾在英伟达工作的基思·斯特里尔表示,他现在担任芯片制造的竞争对手AMD的全球人工智能市场高级副总裁。“这引发了一场兴趣海啸。”
世界各国首都越来越深刻地认识到,人工智能应被视为一种公用事业。对于其重要性的认知让各国官员担心,如果不投入资金,他们可能在经济和军事上会落后于对手。此外,许多人希望确保数据保留在国土之内,以便保护敏感信息。
普里在采访中表示,对于这种情况,英伟达的回应是组建了一个与政府合作的部门来应对各国日益增长的兴趣。他和斯特里尔会见外国领导人,讨论他们的计算性能需求,而黄仁勋则激发了各国对满是英伟达芯片的数据中心的投资热情。
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这些采购改变了政府处理计算的方式。直到最近,小国基本上都是向微软和谷歌等云计算巨头租用计算能力。这使它们免去了支付软件更新、工程支持和半导体进步的费用。现在,他们开始自己承担这些工作。
丹麦是众多与英伟达联系的国家之一。丹麦出口与投资基金首席执行官佩德·伦奎斯特说,该国领导人在2019年首次与黄仁勋谈论相关事宜,但当时没有感到必须立刻投资。他说,在使用ChatGPT之后,丹麦领导人了解了这项技术的威力,并主动联系英伟达购买其芯片。
10月,黄仁勋与丹麦人工智能高管纳迪娅·卡尔斯滕,以及丹麦国王弗雷德里克十世。丹麦是众多与英伟达联系的国家之一。
10月,黄仁勋与丹麦人工智能高管纳迪娅·卡尔斯滕,以及丹麦国王弗雷德里克十世。丹麦是众多与英伟达联系的国家之一。 EPA-EFE/EPA, via Shutterstock
出口与投资基金和专注于研究的丹麦非营利组织诺和诺德基金会联手投资1亿美元建造了一台超级计算机。经过6个月的建造,这台超级计算机于今年10月亮相,使用了1528块人工智能芯片,重量超过30吨。
“我们需要创新,需要在应用研究和企业之间建立紧密的联系,”伦奎斯特说。“要想脱颖而出,超级计算能力极其重要。”
AI外交
在各国竞相购买英伟达芯片的同时,拜登政府也通过了一些规定来观测该公司的销售情况。拜登政府担心,与中国有联系的国家可能会向中国研究人员和公司提供英伟达芯片,因此要求一些国家获得购买许可。中国的目标是到2030年成为世界人工智能领导者。
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阿拉伯联合酋长国是首批申请许可证的国家之一。2022年,阿联酋拨出1000亿美元用于人工智能投资,并希望建造该地区速度最快的超级计算机。
美国官员看到了机会。近十年来,他们一直苦于难以说服各国停止使用华为,即使在就网络安全风险和华为与中国共产党的关系提出警告之后。
许可证要求提供了一种新的解决方案,即通过英伟达芯片。
作为允许使用大量英伟达尖端芯片协议的一部分,阿联酋领先的人工智能公司G42承诺放弃使用华为技术。今年10月,该公司推出了一台超级计算机,里面装满了价值3000万美元的英伟达芯片。
据两位熟悉相关讨论的人士称,今年夏天,白宫国家安全和商务部官员开始告诉芯片行业高管,他们正在制定一项新的人工智能政策。政府官员表示,阿联酋和其他国家目前的许可程序非常繁琐。他们希望出台一些规则,使在国外建立人工智能数据中心变得更容易,同时提高他们追踪芯片的能力,防止芯片流入中国。
他们还想让阿联酋这样的国家更容易购买英伟达芯片,方法是用批量审批系统取代许可程序,允许向不超过预设限额的国家销售。
9月,拜登总统欢迎阿拉伯联合酋长国总统谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德访问白宫。
9月,拜登总统欢迎阿拉伯联合酋长国总统谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德访问白宫。 Tom Brenner for The New York Times
本月,一份规则草案开始在芯片游说人士中流传。这些限制将为美国和欧洲云计算提供商建立的数据中心提供更快的审批速度,芯片数量上限为数十万个。但对其他国家的公司来说,审批过程会更慢,审查也会更严格。
三位熟知内情的人士表示,黄仁勋和英伟达的法律总顾问蒂姆·泰特曾致电拜登政府官员,称这些规定会损害公司利益。其他业内人士也表达了类似的担忧。
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英伟达发言人肯·布朗在一份声明中表示:“我们完全支持国家安全,并乐意提供政府在制定政策时所需要的任何信息。”他还说:“对主流数据中心产品设置上限将是方法上的重大转变,不仅不会降低滥用的风险,反而会威胁经济增长。”
商务部拒绝发表评论。
这些人说,这些规定预计将在未来几周内公布,黄仁勋已经和能够接近即将上任的特朗普政府的人士进行了接触,希望他们能在1月收回这些规定。
战略与国际研究中心瓦德瓦尼人工智能中心主任格雷戈里·艾伦说,目前还不清楚特朗普政府将如何处理这一政策。但众议院和参议院的共和党领导人曾抨击拜登政府过去对芯片技术和中国的限制过于软弱。
“我们正在与中国进行一场人工智能竞赛,我们不希望美国公司在这场竞赛中把佳得乐和耐克鞋送给对手,”艾伦说。“我们希望它们站在我们这边,而且只站在我们这边。”

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Woman dies after being set on fire on NYC subway

Getty Images Police investigate at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman aboard a subway car was set on fire and diedGetty Images
Police were called to Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue Station in Brooklyn after a woman on a subway car was set on fire

A suspect has been arrested in New York over the death of a woman who was set on fire on a subway train in Brooklyn.

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch described the incident on Sunday as "one of the most depraved crimes one person could possibly commit against another human being".

She said the woman was sleeping on a stationary F train to Brooklyn when she was approached by the suspect who used a lighter to ignite her clothing.

The victim died at the scene, she said, adding that the suspect had been taken into custody after he was detained on another subway train.

Police said the woman, who has not been named, was sleeping in a subway carriage at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue station in Brooklyn at about 07:30 local time (12:30 GMT) when a man approached her.

There was no interaction before the attack, police said, adding that they did not believe the two people knew each other.

The man got off the train as police officers on patrol in the station rushed to the fire.

"What they saw was a person standing inside the train car fully engulfed in flames," Ms Tisch said.

Police are still working to identify the victim and the motive for the attack.

Doctors warn over water bead gifts for children

Getty Images Child playing with water beads. The beads are of different colours and in a clear bowl. The hands of the child can been seen.Getty Images

Emergency doctors in the UK have issued a safety warning over water beads, which could be given to children as gifts over Christmas.

The beads, also known as jelly balls, sensory beads, or water crystals are marketed as crafting tools and homeware items - but also toys.

They are typically only a few millimetres but some can expand up to 400 times their original size in about 36 hours when exposed to liquid, creating a hidden danger. If a child swallows one, they can cause bowel obstruction and the consequences can be fatal.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) advises that the beads should be kept well away from children aged under five.

The "safety flash" is for doctors to make sure they know what to look out for while on duty, but the college also wants parents and carers of be aware of the dangers.

The beads are not visible on X-rays.

They can also cause choking and have harmed children in the UK, with reports linking them to deaths overseas, the government's Office for Product Safety and Standards said in September.

Its safety alert added the beads should only used with older children or vulnerable adults under close supervision.

The RCEM advises parents and carers to seek medical attention immediately if there is any suspicion a child may have swallowed a water bead.

"Having seen the effects first hand, which can be devastating and detrimental, we are asking people to please think twice about the dangers these pose while selecting and gifting presents this season," Dr Salwa Malik, vice president of the RCEM, told PA Media.

The RCEM alert also highlights the potential danger to children and vulnerable adults of button or coin batteries and magnets, if swallowed.

Rome to regulate Trevi Fountain crowds after restoration

Getty Images A general view shows the Trevi fountain after renovation works in Rome, on the day of its reopening with crowds of people huddling round the grand re-opening.Getty Images
More than 10,000 people used to visit the baroque landmark in Rome every day

Rome's world-famous Trevi Fountain has re-opened after a three-month restoration.

Built in the 18th Century by Italian architect Nicola Salvi on the façade of the Poli Palace, the historic fountain is one of the city's most visited spots.

Between 10,000 and 12,000 tourists used to visit the Trevi Fountain each day, but a new queuing system has been installed to prevent large crowds massing near the landmark.

Speaking on Sunday Mayor of Rome Roberto Gualtieri said imposing the limit will "allow everyone to better enjoy the fountain, without crowds or confusion".

Gualtieri also said city authorities were considering charging a modest entry price to finance the fountain's upkeep.

Sunday's re-opening took place under light rain in the presence of several hundred tourists, many of whom followed the mayor by throwing a coin into the fountain.

The three-month cleaning project involved removing mould and calcium incrustations.

The fountain and other key city sites have been cleaned ahead of the jubilee of the Roman Catholic Church which begins on Christmas Eve.

Getty Images  People visit the Trevi Fountain in Rome, ItalyGetty Images
A new queueing system will be put in place to avoid large crowds, like this in September 2024

Its poor structural condition was exposed in 2012 when bits of its elaborate cornice began falling off after an especially harsh winter which required a multi-million euro renovation the following year.

Making a wish and tossing a coin into the water is such a tradition that the city authorities used to collect around €10,000 (£8,300; $10,500) a week.

The money was donated to a charity that provides meals for the poor.

The Trevi fountain

Getty Images An old photo of the Trevi Fountain in RomeGetty Images
  • Commissioned by Pope Clement XII in 1730
  • It is the end point of one of the aqueducts that supplied ancient Rome with water
  • The Acqua Vergine runs for a total of 20km (12 miles) before flowing into the fountain
  • Tourists can drink from a special tap tucked away at one side
  • According to legend, the water source was discovered in 19 BC by thirsty Roman soldiers directed to the site by a young virgin - which is why it is called Virgin Waters
  • The tradition of throwing coins into the fountain was made famous by Frank Sinatra's Three Coins in the Fountain in the 1954 romantic comedy of the same name
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