Reading view

There are new articles available, click to refresh the page.

泽连斯基:我真的指望他(特朗普)


2025-01-06T11:03:42.274Z
去年9月,泽连斯基曾在纽约与特朗普见面。

(德国之声中文网)上周日(1月5日)播出的最新一集播客莱克斯·弗里德曼(Lex Fridman)节目中,乌克兰总统泽连斯基说,对于确保乌克兰的安全,并为通过谈判达成解决方案铺平道路,美国候任总统特朗普可以起到决定性作用。他还表示,通过谈判达成的解决方案也将得到欧洲国家的支持。

泽连斯基在采访中说:“特朗普和我将达成协议并(...)与欧洲一起提供强有力的安全保障,然后我们就可以与俄罗斯人谈判了。”

特朗普将于两周后,于1月20日正式宣誓就职。

在美国总统竞选期间,特朗普曾宣布他当选上任后“24小时内”恢复乌克兰和平。这一表述在乌克兰引起怀疑。基辅方面担心可能会被迫达成一项对该国不利的协议。

不过在播客节目中,泽连斯基则对特朗普大加称赞。他说:我真的指望他(特朗普),我相信我们的人民也指望他,他有足够的权力向普京施压。

泽连斯基继续说道,欧洲领导人都在等着看特朗普想要什么。在他与特朗普交谈后,大家总是问他进展如何。泽连斯基说:“这显示了唐纳德·特朗普的影响力,这在美国总统身上从未发生过。” “这也让人们相信他能够结束这场战争。”

泽连斯基还表示,特朗普击败对手哈里斯赢得美国总统大选,因为他比民主党“强大得多”。泽连斯基表示,特朗普展现了“智力和体力”上的强势。重要的是要表明“如果你想拥有一个强大的国家,你就必须强大。而他很强大。”

在播客中,泽连斯基还提出立即让乌克兰加入北约。但由于北约目前只能在乌克兰控制的部分采取行动,这意味着,虽然卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热、赫尔松和克里米亚五个地区仍是乌克兰领土,但是北约无法在这些地区行动。

他表示,为了实现和平,除了加入北约作为进一步的安全保障之外,乌克兰还必须获得美国和欧盟提供的强有力的武器供应。 “因为没有安全保障,普京就会回来。”泽连斯基说。而且为了进一步巩固可能的和平或停火,有必要对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁,以防止普京进一步用石油和天然气销售收入充实他的战争基金。

泽连斯基在播客中被问到是否会参加特朗普的就职典礼。他表示,自己当然想去。但是考虑到战争中的很多情况,他不能去参加。他说:“我不是那种不请自来的人。普京才是。我们没有邀请他。他自己来了。我不能做这样的事。”

播客主持人莱克斯·弗里德曼 (Lex Fridman) 是乌克兰裔犹太人。他出生在前苏联时期,并在莫斯科长大。上世纪90年代弗里德曼随家人移居美国。他曾在播客节目中采访过特朗普、以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和阿根廷总统米莱。

©2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

AI的“傲慢与偏见”

数据是AI的重要基石,然而数据往往掺杂着某些社会偏见,例如对特定国家、文化、种族、性别或年龄的偏见。使用带有偏见的数据训练AI模型,会导致AI系统在分析和预测中复刻甚至放大这些偏见。AI发展中暴露的第二个问题是:数据分析的“巨人”与理论建设的“矮子”。此外,AI在与社会科学的交汇中,还面临一系列社会伦理问题。

随着AI的快速发展,各种翻译工具应运而生,大幅提升了日常对话和简单文字的翻译效率,AI“取代”人工翻译的印象同时在社会中迅速蔓延,然而与业界人士的交流表明,AI在中高端翻译领域仍然难以完全取代人类。

与其纠结于“谁取代谁”的假设,不如聚焦AI发展中存在的问题及其解决方案,这显然更具现实意义。当务之急是学会利用AI这一超级工具,更快速、精准地解析人类社会现象,解决其发展过程中暴露的问题,并在此基础上推动人工智能朝着更加有利于人类生活的方向迈进。

南方防务智库特约研究员 唐文方

责任编辑:姚忆江

在过去二三十年间,AI取得了飞速发展。1997年,计算机首次战胜国际象棋世界冠军;2016年,它又击败了韩国职业围棋选手李世乭;2017年,计算机连续三局战胜了世界排名第一的中国围棋九段选手柯洁。这些辉煌胜利大大提升了人们对AI的期望。

除了围棋等竞技项目,AI正被广泛应用于人类社会的各个领域,例如驰骋于战场上、由人工智能控制的无人机和机器狗,虚拟教师、虚拟翻译、虚拟心理咨询师、虚拟医生、虚拟理财顾问的涌现。一时间,人工智能全面取代人类智能的可能性似乎变得触手可及。AI的发展为人类社会带来了革命性的影响。掌握人工智能者,便掌握了未来世界的主动权。各国政府都在不遗余力地争夺这一技术制高点。

不过,本文想探讨的问题并不是如何抢占这些制高点,而是AI发展和应用过程中暴露出的一些问题。这些问题大致可以归纳为三类:AI的有限客观性、其理论贡献的局限性以及对人类社会伦理的挑战。

AI复刻甚至放大偏见

数据是AI的重要基石。作为AI模型成长发展的“粮食”,数据可能来自网络平台、社交媒体、历史档案、政策文件或学术著作等诸多渠道。然而,这些数据往往掺杂着某些社会偏见,例如对特定国家、文化、种族、性别或年龄的偏见。使用带有偏见的数据训练AI模型,会导致AI系统在分析和预测中复刻甚至放大这些偏见。

例如,AI工具在分析犯罪数据时,可能会无意中强化对某些少数群体的负面刻板印象,进而做出带有歧视性的预测,导致研究结果失真。

再如,现在许多跨国公司(如亚马逊和谷歌)利用AI评估和筛选求职简历。然而,这些AI系统往往已经受到了主流社会中对性别、种族和宗教等社会偏见的系统性影响。完全依赖这些系统可能会让偏见以更隐蔽的方式得到延续甚至强化,进一步扩大社会不平等。要纠正AI产生的偏见和歧视,就需要训练有素的社会科学家通过人工或人文识别的方式鉴别人工智能的分析结果,提出修正建议,以确保系统的公正和可靠。

与数据客观性紧密关联的另一个问题是,AI可能对公众舆论和社会情绪产生操控效应。通过数据分析和内容推荐

登录后获取更多权限

校对:星歌 吴依兰

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

What to know about winter storm hitting North America

Getty Images Snow falls outside the US CapitolGetty Images

Tens of millions of Americans are bracing for a huge winter storm that could bring the heaviest snowfall and coldest temperatures in over a decade.

The storm, which started in the middle of the US, will move east in the next couple of days, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.

Parts of the US not accustomed to severe cold, including Mississippi and Florida, have been warned to expect treacherous conditions.

Forecasters say the extreme weather is being caused by the polar vortex, an area of cold air that circulates around the Arctic.

"For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

AccuWeather forecaster Dan DePodwin said: "This could lead to the coldest January for the US since 2011."

He added that "temperatures that are well below historical average" could linger for a week.

Those low temperatures will be on the east coast as well, where the storm is expected to reach by Sunday evening.

In the central US, there will be "considerable disruptions to daily life" and "dangerous or impossible driving conditions and widespread closures" into Sunday, according to the NWS.

Some areas of Kansas and Indiana could see at least 8in (20.3cm) of snow.

In parts of the Midwest, blizzards are possible.

"Whiteout conditions will make travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists becoming stranded," the NWS warned.

Sleet and freezing rain is forecast for Missouri, Illinois, and swathes of Kentucky and West Virginia.

As the storm moves east, millions more Americans will see record low temperatures, forecasters said.

Cities including Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia are preparing for snowy and icy conditions from Sunday into Monday. Snowfall of between 5-12in could be recorded in parts of Virginia.

Also on Sunday, portions of the southern US including Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi may see severe thunderstorms.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue said: "It's going to be a mess, a potential disaster. This is something we haven't seen in quite a while."

American, Delta, Southwest and United airlines are waiving change fees for passengers because of the potential flight disruptions.

Biden bans offshore drilling across vast area of US

BBC 'Breaking' graphicBBC

US President Joe Biden has announced a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling along most of America's coastline, weeks before Donald Trump takes office.

Trump had pledged to massively increase US fossil fuel production.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.

'Stressed' elephant gores Spanish tourist to death in Thailand

Getty Images An elephant playing with water at the Elephant Nature Park in Chiang Mai, ThailandGetty Images
Bathing elephants is a popular activity among tourists in Thailand, but activists have criticised it as unethical

A "panic-stricken" elephant killed a Spanish woman while she was bathing the animal at an elephant centre in Thailand, local police said.

Blanca Ojanguren García, 22, was washing the elephant at the Koh Yao Elephant Care Centre last Friday when she was gored to death by the animal.

Experts told Spanish language newspaper Clarín that the elephant could have been stressed by having to interact with tourists outside its natural habitat.

García, who was a law and international relations student at Spain's University of Navarra, was living in Taiwan as part of a student exchange programme.

She was visiting Thailand with her boyfriend, who witnessed the attack.

Spain's foreign minister, Jose Manuel Albares, said the Spanish consulate in Bangkok was assisting García's family.

BBC News has reached out to the elephant care centre for comment.

Bathing elephants is a popular activity among tourists in Thailand, which is home to more than 4,000 wild animals and has a similar number kept in captivity, according to the Department of National Parks.

The Koh Yao centre offers "elephant care" packages which let tourists make food for and feed the animals, as well as shower and walk with them. These packages cost between 1,900 baht ($55; £44) and 2,900 baht.

Animal activists have previously criticised elephant bathing activities, noting that they disrupt natural grooming behaviours and expose the animals to unnecessary stress and potential injury.

World Animal Protection, an international charity, has for years urged countries including Thailand to stop breeding elephants in captivity.

More than six in 10 elephants used for tourism in Asia are living in "severely inadequate" conditions, the charity said.

"These intelligent and socially intricate animals, with a capacity for complex thoughts and emotions, endure profound suffering in captivity, as their natural social structures cannot be replicated artificially," the charity said.

Justin Trudeau may quit within days, say Canadian media

Reuters Justin Trudeau at US embassy in Ottawa on 3 January 2025Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could announce his resignation within days, according to media reports.

He is considering stepping down as leader of the governing Liberal Party, which would also bring to an end his nine years as prime minister.

It follows months of pressure from his own MPs. Last month, his finance minister quit, citing disagreements on how to deal with Donald Trump's threat to levy US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Opinion polls suggest Trudeau's Liberal Party trails well behind the Conservatives with a general election looming some time this year.

The Globe and Mail reports that he could announce his intention to quit before he meets his party caucus on Wednesday, to avoid the perception that his own MPs forced him out.

Their sources said it was unclear whether Trudeau would leave immediately or stay on as prime minister until a new leader was selected.

And they stressed he had yet to make a final decision on his future.

Whoever takes over will have to lead the party through an election campaign while also navigating a possible trade war with the US.

The election must take place before October, but a change in leadership of the Liberal Party could increase calls for a snap vote in the coming months.

Trudeau's departure would bring to an end a defining era in Canadian politics.

He unexpectedly swept his party to power in 2015, winning a campaign that began with them in third place.

The fresh-faced young leader, aged 43 back then, promised a new kind of politics centred on an open immigration policy, increased taxes on the wealthy and battling climate change.

But his first term was dogged by scandals. In more recent years, he had been battling sinking popularity as frustration grew with the cost of living and his own style of governing.

More than a dozen of his own MPs have called for him to step down, while polls suggest two-thirds of voters disapprove of him.

Just 26% of respondents in a September Ipsos said Trudeau was their top pick for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

History is also not on Trudeau's side, with only two prime ministers ever serving four consecutive terms.

Poilievre rose to the top of his party in 2022 on a promise to reduce taxes, tackle inflation and protect individual liberties.

The 45-year-old also rallied support behind the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting about Covid mandates - a blockade that brought Canadian cities including Ottawa to a standstill.

Canada's next prime minister will have to address the threat of tariffs from incoming US President Donald Trump.

He has vowed to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods if the country does not secure its shared border to the flow of irregular migrants and illegal drugs.

The "grave challenge" this posed was referred to in the resignation letter of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who quit hours before she was due to deliver her annual budget.

Trudeau had informed her he no longer wanted her to be his government's top economic adviser.

Harris to certify Trump's US election win, four years after Capitol riot

Reuters Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shaking hands Reuters
Trump and Harris shaking hands ahead of a presidential debate last year

US Vice-President Kamala Harris will on Monday preside over the official certification in Congress of the result of November's presidential election - a contest that she lost to Donald Trump.

The date also marks the fourth anniversary of a riot at the US Capitol, when Trump's supporters tried to thwart the certification of Democratic President Joe Biden's election victory in 2020. Normally the occasion is a mere formality.

Heavy security is in place in Washington DC, and Biden has vowed there will be no repeat of the violence on 6 January 2021 - which led to several deaths.

As lawmakers meet in Washington DC, heavy snow forecast for the American capital could prove disruptive.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to go ahead with the certification at 13:00 EST (18:00 GMT) in spite of the weather, telling Fox News: "Whether we're in a blizzard or not, we're going to be in that chamber making sure this is done."

As the current vice-president, Harris is required by the US Constitution to officially preside over the certification of the result, after Trump beat her in the nationwide poll on 5 November.

Trump won all seven of the country's swing states, helping him to victory in the electoral college, the mechanism that decides who takes the presidency. It will be Harris's job on Monday to read out the number of electoral college votes won by each candidate.

Trump's second term will begin after he is inaugurated on 20 January. For the first time since 2017, the president's party will also enjoy majorities in both chambers of Congress, albeit slender ones.

Trump's win marked a stunning political comeback from his electoral defeat in 2020, and a criminal conviction in 2024 - a first for a current or former US president.

Amid the dramatic recent presidential campaign, Trump also survived a bullet grazing his ear when a gunman opened fire at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania.

While away from the White House, he has faced a slew of legal cases against him - including over his attempts to overturn the 2020 result, which he continues to dispute.

Following his defeat that year, Trump and his allies made baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud - claiming the election had been stolen from them.

In a speech in Washington DC on certification day, 6 January 2021, Trump told a crowd to "fight like hell" but also asked them to "peacefully" make their voices heard.

He also attempted to pressurise his own vice-president, Mike Pence, to reject the election result - a call that Pence rejected.

Rioters went on to smash through barricades and ransack the Capitol building before Trump ultimately intervened by telling them to go home. Several deaths were blamed on the violence.

Trump's pledges after returning to office include pardoning people convicted of offences over the attack. He says many of them are "wrongfully imprisoned", though has acknowledged that "a couple of them, probably they got out of control".

Conversely, Biden has called on Americans never to forget what happened.

"We must remember the wisdom of the adage that any nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it," Biden wrote in the Washington Post over the weekend.

For Trump's Republican Party, the new Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signalled a desire to move on, telling the BBC's US partner CBS News: "You can't be looking in the rearview mirror."

BBC banner graphic reads: "More on Trump transition"

Mozambique opposition leader says he will return home from exile

Reuters Venancio Mondlane in a dark suit and grey ties speaks during an interview in Maputo, MozambiqueReuters
Mondlane has been in exile since October

Mozambique's opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, who has been calling for protests for weeks from exile, has said he will return to the country on Thursday.

Mondlane said he would arrive ahead of the swearing-in of a new president next week.

Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party is due to be sworn next Wednesday after a court confirmed his election victory.

But Mondlane, the runner-up, rejected the outcome, sparking violent protests that have left dozens dead since October.

Mondlane left Mozambique the same month saying he feared for his life, after two of his aides were shot dead.

In a Facebook live address on Sunday, he sent out a defiant message to the authorities saying he "will be in Maputo. They don't need to chase me any more".

He said he would arrive at 08:05 local time (06:05 GMT) on Thursday at the international airport in Maputo, calling for people to welcome him there.

"If they are killing my brothers... then I will be there. You can do what you want. If you want to murder, murder. If you want to arrest, arrest too. I will be there," he said.

Mondlane maintains that he won the election and has called for more protests until there is "electoral truth".

His supporters have frequently staged violent protests across the country to demand an end to the 49-year-rule of the Frelimo party.

He has previously said he would install himself as president on 15 January - on the presidential inauguration day - despite the court upholding his rival's victory.

The electoral commission initially declared Chapo the winner of the election with 71% of the vote, compared to Mondlane's 20%.

The final official results from the constitutional court two weeks ago gave Chapo 65% and Mondlane 24%.

International election observers have previously said that the vote was flawed, pointing to doctored numbers and other irregularities during the counting process.

Security forces have sought to end the nationwide protests in a violent crackdown that has tested the country's stability.

More than 270 people have been killed, including protesters, children and members of the security forces, according to rights groups.

The unrest has also affected the economy, with more than 12,000 people losing their jobs and over 500 companies being vandalised.

Neighbouring countries have also been affected by the political unrest, with thousands of Mozambicans fleeing across the border.

Outgoing President Filipe Nyusi has in the past called for dialogue to resolve the dispute. On 27 December, Chapo called for "non-violence" and "unity".

You may also be interested in:

Getty Images/BBC A woman looking at her mobile phone and the graphic BBC News AfricaGetty Images/BBC

Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.

Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica

BBC Africa podcasts

Channel migrants: The real reason so many are fleeing Vietnam for the UK

BBC Montage image showing a beach with trees in the background, coloured in red, with a black and white image of people on a small inflatable boat at the frontBBC

More Vietnamese attempted small-boat Channel crossings in the first half of 2024 than any other nationality. Yet they are coming from one of the world's fastest-growing economies. Why, then, are so many risking their lives to reach Britain?

Phuong looked at the small inflatable boat and wondered whether she should step in. There were 70 people packed in, and it was sitting low in the water. She recalls the fear, exhaustion and desperation on their faces. There weren't enough lifejackets to go around.

But Phuong was desperate. She says she had been stuck in France for two months, after travelling there from Vietnam via Hungary, sleeping in tents in a scrubby forest.

Already she had refused to travel on one boat because it seemed dangerously overcrowded, and previously had been turned back in the middle of the Channel three times by bad weather or engine failure.

Her sister, Hien, lives in London, and recalls that Phuong used to phone her from France in tears. "She was torn between fear and a drive to keep going.

Getty Images A small boat packed with people is rescued in English waters by a larger boatGetty Images
The UK has called on Vietnam's authorities to strengthen efforts in controlling smuggling

"But she had borrowed so much - around £25,000 - to fund this trip. Turning back wasn't an option." So, she climbed on board.

Today Phuong lives in London with her sister, without any legal status. She was too nervous to speak to us directly, and Phuong is not her real name. She left it to her sister, who is now a UK citizen, to describe her experiences.

In the six months to June, Vietnamese made up the largest number of recorded small boat arrivals with 2,248 landing in the UK, ahead of people from countries with well-documented human rights problems, including Afghanistan and Iran.

The extraordinary efforts made by Vietnamese migrants to get to Britain is well documented, and in 2024 the BBC reported on how Vietnamese syndicates are running successful people-smuggling operations.

It is not without significant risks. Some Vietnamese migrants end up being trafficked into sex work or illegal marijuana farms. They make up more than one-tenth of those in the UK filing official claims that they are victims of modern slavery.

And yet Vietnam is a fast-growing economy, acclaimed as a "mini-China" for its manufacturing prowess. Per capita income is eight times higher than it was 20 years ago. Add to that the tropical beaches, scenery and affordability, which have made it a magnet for tourists.

So what is it that makes so many people desperate to leave?

A tale of two Vietnams

Vietnam, a one-party Communist state, sits near the bottom of most human rights and freedom indexes. No political opposition is permitted. The few dissidents who raise their voices are harassed and jailed.

Yet most Vietnamese have learned to live with the ruling party, which leans for legitimacy on its record of delivering growth. Very few who go to Britain are fleeing repression.

Nor are the migrants generally fleeing poverty. The World Bank has singled Vietnam out for its almost unrivalled record of poverty reduction among its 100 million people.

Rather, they are trying to escape what some call "relative deprivation".

Getty Images Morning traffic on Lo Duc Street in Hanoi, Vietnam on a warm spring day. People are commuting on bikes and motorbikes, or walking and shopping. Apartment buildings are rising above the street behind electric cables.
Getty Images
Per capita income is eight times higher in Vietnam than it was 20 years ago

Despite its impressive economic record, Vietnam started far behind most of its Asian neighbours, with growth only taking off well after the end of the Cold War in 1989. As a result, average wages, at around £230 a month, are much lower than in nearby countries like Thailand, and three-quarters of the 55-million-strong workforce are in informal jobs, with no security or social protection.

"There is a huge disparity between big cities like Hanoi and rural areas," says Nguyen Khac Giang, a Vietnamese academic at the Institute of South East Asian Studies-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. "For a majority of workers with limited skills, there is a glass ceiling. Even if you work 14 hours a day you cannot save enough to build a house or start a family."

This was what Phuong felt, despite coming from Haiphong, Vietnam's third-largest city.

Her sister Hien had made it to Britain nine years earlier, smuggled inside a shipping container. It had cost her around £22,000 but she was able to pay that back in two years, working long hours in kitchens and nail salons. Hien married a Vietnamese man who already had British citizenship, and they had a daughter; all three are now UK citizens.

In Haiphong, jobs were scarce after the pandemic and at 38 years old, Phuong wanted what her sister had in London: the ability to save money and start a family.

"She could survive in Vietnam, but she wanted a home, a better life, with more security," explains Hien.

Getty Images A woman rides a bicycle on the street in Haiphong cityGetty Images
Haiphong is Vietnam's third-largest city

Lan An Hoang, a professor in development studies at Melbourne University, has spent years studying migration patterns. "Twenty to thirty years ago, the urge to migrate overseas was not as strong, because everyone was poor," she says. "People were happy with one buffalo, one motorbike and three meals a day.

"Suddenly a few people successfully migrated to countries like Germany or the UK, to work on cannabis farms or open nail salons. They started to send a lot of money home. Even though the economic conditions of those left behind have not changed, they feel poor relative to all these families with migrants working in Europe."

'Catch up, get rich'

This tradition of seeking better lives overseas goes back to the 1970s and 80s, when Vietnam was allied to the Soviet Union following the defeat of US forces in the south.

The state-led economy had hit rock bottom. Millions were destitute; some areas suffered food shortages. Tens of thousands left to work in eastern bloc countries like Poland, East Germany and Hungary.

This was also a time when 800,000 mainly ethnic Chinese boat people fled the communist party's repressive actions, making perilous sea journeys across the South China Sea, eventually resettling in the USA, Australia or Europe.

Getty Images Bamboo fishing boats on the beach at low tide in Nghe An province VietnamGetty Images
Nghe An is one of Vietnam's poorer provinces south of Hanoi

The economic hardships of that time threatened the legitimacy of the communist party, and in 1986 it made an abrupt turn, abandoning the attempt to build a socialist system and throwing the doors open to global markets. The new theme of Vietnam's national story was to catch up, and get rich, any way possible. For many Vietnamese, that meant going abroad.

"Money is God in Vietnam," says Lan An Hoang. "The meaning of 'the good life' is primarily anchored in your ability to accumulate wealth. There is also a strong obligation to help your family, especially in central Vietnam.

"That is why the whole extended family pools resources to finance the migration of one young person because they believe they can send back large sums of money, and facilitate the migration of other people."

New money: spoils of migration

Drive through the flat rice fields of Nghe An, one of Vietnam's poorer provinces lying south of Hanoi, and where there were once smaller concrete houses, you will now find large, new houses with gilded gates. More are under construction, thanks, in part, to money earned in the West.

The new houses are prominent symbols of success for returnees who have done well overseas.

Getty Images Nghe An, Vietnam - three people in hats are transplanting young rice sprouts in a field 
Getty Images
Workers tend a rice field in Nghe An

Vietnam is now enjoying substantial inflows of foreign investment, as it is considered an alternative to China for companies wanting to diversify their supply chains. This investment is even beginning to reach places like Nghe An, too.

Foxconn, a corporate giant that manufactures iPhones, is one of several foreign businesses building factories in Nghe An, offering thousands of new jobs.

But monthly salaries for unskilled workers only reach around £300, even with overtime. That is not enough to rival the enticing stories of the money to be made in the UK, as told by the people smugglers.

From travel agents to labour brokers

The business of organising the travel for those wishing to leave the province is now a very profitable one. Publicly, companies present themselves as either travel agents or brokers for officially-approved overseas labour contracts, but in practice many also offer to smuggle people to the UK via other European countries. They usually paint a rosy picture of life in Britain, and say little about the risks and hardships they will face.

"Brokers" typically charge between £15,000 and £35,000 for the trip to the UK. Hungary is a popular route into the EU because it offers guest-worker visas to Vietnamese passport holders. The higher the price, the easier and faster the journey.

Shutterstock Vietnam President Luong Cuong wears a suit and waves his handShutterstock
Vietnam President Luong Cuong at the 80th anniversary of Vietnam's People's Army in December 2024

The communist authorities in Vietnam have been urged by the US, the UK and UN agencies to do more to control the smuggling business.

Remittances from abroad earn Vietnam around £13bn a year, and the government has a policy of promoting migration for work, although only through legal channels, mostly to richer Asian countries.

More than 130,000 Vietnamese workers left in 2024 under the official scheme. But the fees for these contracts can be high, and the wages are much lower than they can earn in Britain.

The huge risks of the illicit routes used to reach the UK were brought home in 2019, when 39 Vietnamese people were found dead in Essex, having suffocated while being transported inside a sealed container across the Channel.

Yet this has not noticeably reduced demand for the smugglers' services. The increased scrutiny of container traffic has, however, pushed them to find alternative Channel crossings, which helps explain the sharp rise in Vietnamese people using small boats.

'Success stories outweigh the risks'

"The tragedy of the 39 deaths in 2019 is almost forgotten," says the cousin of one of the victims, Le Van Ha. He left behind a wife, two young children and a large debt from the cost of the journey. His cousin, who does not want to be named, says attitudes in their community have not changed.

"People hardly care anymore. It's a sad reality, but it is the truth.

"I see the trend of leaving continuing to grow, not diminish. For people here, the success stories still outweigh the risks."

Getty Images Police officers drive escort the lorry in which 39 dead bodies were discovered Getty Images
The lorry where 39 Vietnamese people were found dead

Three of the victims came from the agricultural province of Quang Binh. The headteacher of a secondary school in the region, who also asked not to be named, says that 80% of his students who graduate soon plan to go overseas.

"Most parents here come from low-income backgrounds," he explains. "The idea of [encouraging their child to] broaden their knowledge and develop their skills is not the priority.

"For them, sending a child abroad is largely about earning money quickly, and getting it sent back home to improve the family's living standards."

In March the UK Home Office started a social media campaign to deter Vietnamese people from illegal migration. Some efforts were also made by the Vietnamese government to alert people to the risks of using people-smugglers. But until there are more appealing economic opportunities in those provinces, it is likely the campaigns will have little impact.

Photos of 39 who died in lorry trailer tragedy in UK in 2019
Images taken from social media of victims who died in the lorry trailer carrying 39 Vietnamese migrants in October 2019

"They cannot run these campaigns just once," argues Diep Vuong, co-founder of Pacific Links, an anti-trafficking organisation. "It's a constant investment in education that's needed."

She has first-hand experience, leaving Vietnam to the US in 1980 as part of the exodus of Vietnamese boat people.

"In Vietnam, people believe they have to work hard, to do everything for their families. That is like a shackle which they cannot easily escape. But with enough good information put out over the years, they might start to change this attitude."

But the campaigns are up against a powerful narrative. Those who go overseas and fail – and many do – are often ashamed, and keep quiet about what went wrong. Those who succeed come back to places like Nghe An and flaunt their new-found wealth. As for the tragedy of the 39 people who died in a shipping container, the prevailing view in Nghe An is still that they were just unlucky.

Top image credit: Getty Images

BBC InDepth is the new home on the website and app for the best analysis and expertise from our top journalists. Under a distinctive new brand, we’ll bring you fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions, and deep reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of a complex world. And we’ll be showcasing thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We’re starting small but thinking big, and we want to know what you think - you can send us your feedback by clicking on the button below.

The remarkable life of Andrée Blouin - Africa's overlooked independence heroine

Eve Blouin A black and white picture of Andrée Blouin wearing a hatEve Blouin
Andrée Blouin was born to a French father and a mother from the Central African Republic

"I know that you can die twice. First comes physical death... to be forgotten is a second death," notes screenwriter Eve Blouin, in an epilogue at the end of her mother's autobiography.

Eve understands this sentiment more than most.

In the 1950s and 60s, her mother, the late Andrée Blouin, threw herself into the fight for a free Africa, mobilising the Democratic Republic of Congo's women against colonialism and rising to become a key adviser to Patrice Lumumba, DR Congo's first prime minister and a revered independence hero.

She traded ideas with famed revolutionaries like Ghana's Kwame Nkrumah, Guinea's Sékou Touré and Algeria's Ahmed Ben Bella, yet her story is hardly known.

In an attempt to remedy this injustice, Blouin's memoir, titled My Country, Africa: Autobiography of the Black Pasionaria, is being re-released, having spent decades out of print.

In the book, Blouin explained that her yearning for decolonisation was sparked by a personal tragedy.

She grew up between Central African Republic (CAR) and Congo-Brazzaville, which at the time were French colonies named Ubangi-Shari and the French Congo respectively.

In the 1940s, her two-year-old son, René, was being treated in hospital for malaria in the CAR.

René was mixed-race like his mother, and because he was one-quarter African, he was denied medication. Weeks later, René was dead.

"The death of my son politicised me as nothing else could," Blouin wrote in her memoir.

She added that colonialism "was no longer a matter of my own maligned fate but a system of evil whose tentacles reached into every phase of African life".

Blouin was born in 1921, to a 40-year-old white French father and a 14-year-old black mother from the CAR.

The two met when Blouin's father passed through her mother's village to sell goods.

"Even today, the story of my father and my mother, while giving me much pain, astonishes me still," Blouin said.

When she was just three, Blouin's father placed her in a convent for mixed-race girls, which was run by French nuns in the neighbouring Congo-Brazzaville.

This was common practice in France and Belgium's African colonies - it is thought that thousands of children born to colonialists and African women were sent to orphanages and separated from the rest of society.

Blouin wrote: "The orphanage served as a kind of waste bin for the waste products of this black-and-white society: the children of mixed blood who fit nowhere."

Eve Blouin A black-and-white picture of a group of girls and a nun at the Order of Saint Joseph Cluny convent posing for a picture.Eve Blouin
For 12 years, Andrée Blouin (second from bottom right) lived at the Order of Saint Joseph Cluny convent in Brazzaville

Blouin's experience in the orphanage was extremely negative - she wrote that the children at the institution were whipped, underfed and verbally abused.

But she was headstrong - she escaped from the orphanage aged 15 after the nuns attempted to force her into marriage.

Blouin eventually married by her own will, twice. After René's death, she moved with her second husband to Guinea, a West African country which was also governed by the French.

At the time, Guinea was in the midst of a "political tempest", she wrote. France had promised the country independence, but also required Guineans to vote in a referendum on whether or not the country should maintain economic, diplomatic and military ties with France.

The Guinean branch of the pan-African movement the Rassemblement Démocratique Africain (RDA) wanted the country to vote "No", arguing that the country needed total liberation. In 1958, Blouin joined the campaign, driving throughout the country to speak at rallies.

A year later, Guinea secured its independence by voting "No" and Sékou Touré, Guinea's RDA leader, became the nation's first president.

By this point, Blouin had begun to develop considerable clout in post-colonial, pan-African circles. She wrote that after Guinea became independent, she used this influence to advise the CAR's new President Barthélemy Boganda, persuading him stand down in a diplomatic row with Congo-Brazzaville's post-independence leader, Fulbert Youlou.

But counselling was not all Blouin had to offer this fast-changing Africa.

In a restaurant in Guinea's capital, Conakry, she met a group of liberation activists from what would later become DR Congo. They urged her to help them mobilise Congolese women in the fight against Belgian colonial rule.

Blouin was pulled in two directions. On one hand, she had three young children - including Eve - to raise. On the other, "she had the restlessness of an idealist with a certain anger at the world as it was", Eve, now 67, told the BBC.

In 1960, with Nkrumah's encouragement, Andrée Blouin flew alone to DR Congo. She joined prominent male liberation activists, such as Pierre Mulele and Antoine Gizenga, on the road, campaigning across the country's 2.4 million sq km (906,000 sq miles) expanse. She cut a striking figure, travelling through the bush with her coiffed hair, form-fitting dresses and chic, translucent shades.

Eve Blouin Andrée, her husband, her daughter and the presidents talk in a group while wearing smart evening wear.Eve Blouin
Andrée Blouin (far left), her husband André (second left) and her daughter Rita (third left) are pictured in Algiers with Algeria's first President, Ahmed Ben Bella (far right), and Guinea's first President, Sékou Touré.

In Kahemba, near the border with Angola, Blouin and her team paused their campaign to help build a base for Angolan independence fighters who had fled from the Portuguese colonial authorities.

She addressed crowds of women, encouraging them to push for gender equality as well as Congo's independence. She also had a knack for organising and strategy.

Soon, the colonial powers and international press caught wind of Blouin's work. They accused her of being, among many things, Nkrumah's mistress, Sékou Touré's agent and "the courtesan of all the African chiefs of state".

She attracted even more attention when she met Lumumba.

In her book, Blouin describes him as a "lithe and elegant" man whose "name was written in letters of gold in the Congo skies".

When the country clinched its independence in 1960, Lumumba became its first prime minister. He was just 34 years old.

Lumumba selected Blouin as his "chief of protocol" and speechwriter. The pair worked together so closely that the press dubbed them "Lumum-Blouin".

Blouin was described by the US's Time magazine as a "handsome 41-year-old" whose "steel will and quick energy make her an invaluable political aide".

But a slew of disasters struck team Lumum-Blouin - and the newly formed government - just a few days into their tenure.

Firstly, the army revolted against their white Belgium commanders, sparking violence across the nation. Then, Belgium, the UK and US backed secession in Katanga, a mineral-rich region that all three Western nations had interests in. Belgian paratroopers swooped back into the country, supposedly to restore security.

Blouin described the events as a "war of nerves", with traitors "organising everywhere".

Herbert Weiss Wearing a patterened dress, Andrée gives a speech to a large crowd of men and women at a rally in the Democratic Republic of CongoHerbert Weiss
Andrée Blouin had a talent for oration

She wrote that Lumumba was a "true hero of modern times", but also admitted she thought he was naïve and, at times, too soft.

"It is true that those who are of the best faith are often the most cruelly deceived," she said.

Within seven months of Lumumba taking charge, army chief of staff Joseph Mobutu seized power.

On the 17 January Lumumba was assassinated by firing squad, with the tacit backing of Belgium. It is possible the UK was complicit, while the US had organised previous plots to kill Lumumba - fearing that he was sympathetic to the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

In her book, Blouin said the shock and grief caused by Lumumba's death left her speechless.

"Never before had I been left without torrents of things to say," she wrote.

She was living in Paris at the time of the killing, having being forced into exile after Mobutu's coup.

To ensure Blouin would not talk to the international press, the authorities made her family - who had moved to Congo - stay in the country as "hostages".

The separation was crushing for Blouin, who, as Eve describes, was "very protective" and "very maternal".

Reflecting on her mother's personality, Eve adds: "One wouldn't want to antagonise her because even though she had a big and generous heart, she could be rather volatile."

While Blouin was in exile, soldiers looted her family home and brutally beat her mother with a gun, permanently damaging her spine.

Blouin's family were finally able to join her after months of separation.

They spent a brief period in Algeria - where they were offered sanctuary by the country's first post-independence President, Ahmed Ben Bella.

They then settled in Paris. Blouin remained involved in pan-Africanism from afar "in the form of articles and almost daily meetings", Eve wrote in the memoir's epilogue.

Herbert Weiss Pierre Mulele, one foot inside a van, peruses a piece of paper. A man inside the van uses a typewriter, while Andrée Blouin stands outside the van with her hands on her hips.Herbert Weiss
Andrée Blouin helped independence figures such as Pierre Mulele (centre) prepare speeches during Congo's 1960 election

When Blouin began writing her autobiography in the 1970s, she still had great reverence for the independence movements she had dedicated herself to.

She had high praise for Sékou Touré, who by that point had established a one-party state and was ruthlessly suppressing freedom of expression.

Blouin did however grow deeply despondent that Africa had not become "free", as she had hoped.

"It is not the outsiders who have damaged Africa the most, but the mutilated will of the people and the selfishness of some of our own leaders," she wrote.

She grieved the death of her dream, so much so that she refused to take medication for the cancer that was ravaging her body.

"It was terrible to watch. I was absolutely powerless," Eve said.

Blouin passed away in Paris on 9 April 1986, at the age of 65. According to Eve, her mother's death was met by the world with "dreary indifference".

She remains an inspiration in some corners, however. In DR Congo's capital, Kinshasa, a cultural centre named after Blouin offers the likes of educational programmes, conferences, and film screenings - all underpinned by a pan-African ethos.

And through My Country, Africa, Blouin's extraordinary story is being released for a second time, this time into a world that shows greater interest in the historical contributions of women.

New readers will learn of the girl who went from being stashed away by the colonial system, to fighting for the freedom of millions of black Africans.

My Country, Africa: Autobiography of the Black Pasionaria, published by Verso Books, goes on sale on 7 January in the UK

You may also be interested in:

Getty Images/BBC A woman looking at her mobile phone and the graphic BBC News AfricaGetty Images/BBC

Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.

Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica

BBC Africa podcasts

竹不倒|没有监控人们便不信,这本就是一种讽刺!

image

陕西某职校发生的学生坠亡事件,其实已经在短视频平台上热传好几天了。甚至可以说,大量相关的视频早就凉凉,现在连一些当地的直播间都遭受牵连。他们当然没在直播里陈述相关的情况,奈何弹幕中有人问。于是,直播间没了。

坠亡这种事,也不是没发生过,为何偏偏此次会有这么多热议、堵校门、呼声呢?

我觉得答案是通报的内容太少,而“巧合”太多。比如摄像头坏掉、坠亡前该学生刚与另外两人闹了矛盾,以及学校阻止家属见到孩子等一系列令人不解的操作。

对于一场悲剧,透明是最好的安抚剂。

或许是受到太多民众的质疑和不满的原因,今天当地发布了通报对此事进行回应。但是,这份回应的内容说实话,很不详细,后果便是“几乎无法说服任何质疑的声音。”

别看通报不短,可其实内容极少。

1.事情发生于1月2日凌晨3点。

2.坠楼前大概5个小时,坠楼学生和另外两名学生发生矛盾。

3.公安认定此事为高空坠亡,排除刑案。

就这么多,不信的可以在下面这份通报里尝试看看能不能找到其他内容。

image

长文千字空言重,疑云遍地信难逢。所以准确来说,这份通报并没有解答一些留在人们脑海里的疑问。

首先,家属要看监控,校方说监控坏了,导致家属不断在网上发声求助。

CDT 档案卡
标题:没有监控人们便不信,这本就是一种讽刺!
作者:竹不倒
发表日期:2025.1.6
来源:微信公众号“竹不倒”
主题归类:陕西蒲城县高中生坠亡事件
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

莫非这监控是纸糊的?又或者说这监控堪比AI,能够精准预测“天灾”?

有没有这事?如果有,监控真这么巧的坏了吗?毕竟学校是“当事人”,他们的陈词不能完全成为证词,监控是真的这么巧合的坏掉了,还是被蓄意破坏,或者根本没坏,答案,应该由警方调查后来告诉外界,让质疑消失。

但关于这一点,啥也没说。

其次,通报里,有这样一句话:“公安机关经进行现场勘查、调阅监控、调查走访、尸表检验,认定该生系高空坠落死亡”。

大家也看到了,里面有一句“调阅监控”。所以,前后矛盾,疑云又增加了。这能怪网民胡搅蛮缠吗?换任何一个正常人,多少也会怀疑一下吧。

到底有没有监控,有的话究竟坏没坏?到这个地步,家属和校方之中,谁在撒谎?

最让人摸不着头脑的,是家属在宾馆里拍视频,说外面的都是该校的老师,被派来监视自己……有种说法是出于人道关怀,怕家长受到了刺激一时想不开。但是否真的只是这个意思,恐怕还需要打个大大的问号。

image

还有一点值得一提,如果是“意外”,那这个意外恰好发生在坠亡学生和另外两名学生的矛盾之后,是不是有点于理不合?早不意外晚不意外,偏偏在跟另外两名学生发生矛盾,被主任叫走调解后,意外了。

这太巧了,还不如说轻生、心理问题之类。但如果这样的话,更需要提供主任在值班室调解双方的监控视频了。

我在很多稿子里都说过这种观点,有些事本身并不具有引起舆论的力量,反而是因为担忧它会引起舆论和争议所采取的那些“措施”,恰恰引发了人们的讨论,增加了人们的疑惑。

就像开头说的,学生意外坠亡的事情不是没有,甚至轻生的也有。可每次都引发舆论了吗?显然不是。况且翻翻热搜也能轻而易举的发现,人们更多在讨论的,不是事情本身,而是后面发生在家属身上的那些奇怪情况。

所以我也不懂,正常人遇到事,难道不应该是赶紧撇清干系,越透明越靠边越好吗?怎么还有主动往里凑的?

就像前段时间还有学校要求学生签署承诺书,承诺出现自杀、自残行为均与学校无关的操作,这不就是为了提前撇清关系吗?可这次的事情,反而更像是硬着头皮往里挤。

image

个人的看法很简单,通报的意义是什么?就是为了让人们相信。那如何让人们相信呢,确凿的证据,合理的解释。

这些东西,最能消灭“巧合”所带来疑惑。

也有人会说,反正官方通报给你了,那监控就是碰巧坏了,学校就是为了避免家属想不开才派人监视,你不信能怎么办?

确实没法怎么办,但这必然会在人们心中留下隐患。我只能说,得不偿失。

时间并非最好的解药。恰恰相反,很多时候时间往往更像一把刀。

但当“监控坏了”的时候,人们便总是怀疑,那“时间”这把刀子的威力就已然体现出来了。

就像前几天的另一起热搜,说广州一站点开出5亿大奖,中了101注。可一组一等奖的号码,也就只有500多万。

换句话说,你得把这个“巧合”放大100倍。5亿多的大奖,是盯着那个中奖的一等奖号码,买100注,才能买出来。

image

这本就已经极其“巧合”,而更巧合的是什么?

有网友爆料称,这家站点的老板娘看到两个中年男子开着迈腾夹着公文包进店直接打了一注两张50倍,她看两人气度不凡,自己也跟了一注,于是该站点中了101注一等奖。

image

同样,你说这就是别人的“运气”,就是别人的“实力”,你不信也没办法,也没人能够给你证明。

的确如此,除了讥讽几句“天选之子”,人们没有任何办法,也没法要求任何解释。

但别忘了,信彩票的人已经越来越少,并且在这类现象之下,还会继续减少。

image

真理愈辩愈明,谎言却总靠沉默维持。这是托马斯·杰斐逊的名句。

回到我们所面对的现状,不是人们多事,也不是网络刻薄,而是一次次“解释”都在挑战常识的底线。你不可能每一次都是巧合,每一次都让人们为“巧合”买单。就像101注彩票头奖下“演都不演了”的评论一样,想让人相信,至少也得先做点样子。_

唐史主任司马迁|资源应该给全要素生产率高的行业和企业,扶持应该给年轻人

file

喝了酒,打字可能有错,但我们还是来讨论一个问题–全要素生产率。

在海南的时候,雇车。司机听我接了几个电话后,就小心跟我探讨,问我,钱到底哪里去了。

当时我们正走在环岛高速上,我就用高速和他举例。

这条高速是用地方债修的,地方债是有资金成本的,比方说3%。然后高速修完了,每年还有维护费用,加上债务利息。如果高速的收费不能超过这个综合成本,那么这条高速就是亏损的。且亏损会随着道路的老化而逐步提升。花了一百亿修这个路,如果每年亏几亿,那么这个资产就会不断贬值,钱就这么亏没了,资产贬值没了,坏账没了。

通常的思考是,为了不亏损,我提高过路过桥费,那么这个成本就会摊销到物流成本里去,这也是我们国家物流整体成本占比高的原因之一。甚至可能催生高速超载导致路面维护费用快速增加。

那么怎么才是有效的呢?我让他看了路边密集的一体化灯杆,这种是无效投资,需要砍掉。还有一些景观化的支出可以砍掉。但比如提升通行效率的,三亚去陵水的隧道要加紧投入。这样,这条路就可以实现更少的无效投入,更多的有效投入,提升整条路的全要素生产率。

CDT 档案卡
标题:资源应该给全要素生产率高的行业和企业,扶持应该给年轻人
作者:唐史主任司马迁
发表日期:2025.1.6
来源:微博
主题归类:全要素生产率
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

这只是一条路,从更多的行业角度看,比如光伏。全行业根本不是技术问题,而是全要素生产率问题。盖了那么多的生产线,土地资源,资本开支,办开工工人的人力资源,政府配套的政策资源等等。生产出来的是毛利率为零甚至为负的产品,这就是典型的不尊重全要素生产率。即使在这种背景下,地方政府依旧基于自己的利益视角,向光伏输血。这就好像一个滴滴司机只能开一辆车,然后隔壁滴滴司机买了两辆车,咱就买三辆车。

产能过剩不只是产能过剩的问题,而是全社会不尊重全要素生产率的问题。今天我们去和德日韩比较,纯粹从工业国家的视角来比较,问题是工业技术吗?不是,我们全体系的供应链有强大的技术整合优势。痛点是在工业利润,我们把光伏做得完全没有利润了,碳化硅在英飞凌的手里时,也是高毛利产品,但这才几年,我们马上要把碳化硅也光伏化了。

看官会说,那抢别人的饭碗是这样的,要卷啊。

卷要适度,你不能卷得资产价格归零。资产价格一定是基于利润的。我最近也写了一些向上管理的东西,其中有一个例子是,同样两家门店,买设备座椅等等,都花了10万。一家每个月能盈利一万,一年能有12万,那么盘这家店的人很多,按照3倍去盘36万都很多人愿意盘。如果这家店不盈利呢?亏钱呢,那这十万只能按照三折出让,甚至出让都没人要。【利润决定了资产价格】,而利润最终来自于哪里呢?不是政府补贴,也不是单纯的出口,也不是单纯的内需,而是全要素生产率,我用了更少的资源,赚到了更多的利润。

利润是非常非常重要的,而利润本身也能反过来提升全要素生产率。

我们现在去看,很多制造业,因为占用要素过多,利润过低,导致了开工率不足,然后进一步降低工人工资。而工人工资降低,必然会反馈为产品质量下滑和生产事故频发,这种负循环这几年一直在各个行业扩散。

我们的大学毕业生,毕业了去送外卖。试问,一个外卖员,送三年外卖会有什么劳动素质层面的提升?从整个社会的劳动力素质老看,从劳动力要素来看,年轻人送外卖,在当前人口结构下,真的是好事?

所以,只有有利润的企业,才可以养人,不是养懒人,而是逐步的分阶段地培养人,把不会的变成会的,把会的变成专业的。利润才能反哺出劳动力素质,提升劳动力要素。

现在我们的投资指引,是去投红利型的股票,投一些垄断行业,上游资源行业。是,从利润率的角度来看,他们目前是可以的。但从全要素来看呢?他们占据了那么多要素,然后贡献那么点利润,且是无法增长的利润。那么把资本这个要素过度配置在他们身上,合理吗?符合我们这个国家不断提升【全要素生产率驱动增长】这个目标吗?整个社会对这个基本的道理,也曾经有过比较清醒的认知,十九大报告里也是提到过全要素生产率的,但从这几年来看,对实际资源配置的指导有限。

如果资本都是配置高股息和资源型企业,长线资金都去做空式买国债,地方继续向全要素生产率已经畸低的行业里进行产业补贴,那我们是走不出来的。就好像在财政困难就业困难的时候,给老人增加养老金,而不给年轻人增加就业机会,那是走不出来的。

资源应该给全要素生产率高的行业和企业,扶持应该给年轻人。这些都是放之四海而皆准的真理,真的没有必要摸石头。

再写就是吐槽了,引用周总理的名言作为结尾吧——只有忠于事实,才能忠于真理。

More NHS patients to be treated in private clinics as PM seeks to reduce backlog

PA Media The back of a staff member in scrubs walking down a hall in a ward at Ealing Hospital in LondonPA Media

The government has unveiled a new pledge to cut the list of patients waiting more than 18 weeks for NHS treatment in England by nearly half a million over the next year.

The plan, to be announced on Monday, will expand access to Community Diagnostic Centres and surgical hubs, alongside reforms designed to enhance patient choice and tackle inefficiencies.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it would create millions more appointments and "deliver on our promise to end the backlogs".

The British Medical Association (BMA) has welcomed the plan but was sceptical about whether it could be delivered.

The government has billed the plan as an important milestone in a broader effort to reduce the number of people enduring long waits for appointments, procedures and surgeries.

Sir Keir added: "Greater choice and convenience for patients. Staff once again able to give the standard of care they desperately want to."

A key Labour election pledge, now included in the government's six main priorities, is for 92% of patients to begin treatment or be given the all-clear within 18 weeks by the end of this Parliament.

This has been an official NHS target for some time, but has not been met since 2015. Currently, only 59% of patients meet the 18-week target, with three million people waiting longer.

The latest promise is to reach 65% by March 2026, which, according to the government, would reduce the backlog by more than 450,000.

A network of Community Diagnostic Centres, which provide appointments such as scans and endoscopies in local neighbourhoods, will extend their opening hours to 12 hours a day, seven days a week.

The aim is to get patients treated more quickly, closer to home and without relying on hospitals. Officials say these centres will provide up to half a million extra appointments each year.

GPs will also be able, where appropriate, to refer patients directly to these centres without requiring a prior consultation with a senior doctor.

More surgical hubs will be created to focus on common, less complex procedures, such as cataract surgeries and some orthopaedic work. These hubs are ring-fenced from other parts of the hospital to ensure operating theatre time is not lost if there are emergency cases.

The new plan says that one million unnecessary appointments per year will be freed up for patients who need them. This will be made possible by abolishing automatic review appointments after treatment and only offering them to patients who request them.

Officials say the extra appointments created will be in addition to what was promised by Labour before the election. That pledge was for 40,000 more appointments per week, or two million a year, to be created within the first year.

This compares with a normal annual total of more than 100 million appointments. Ministers have confirmed that work on this pledge began soon after the election.

Plans for patients to use the NHS App to monitor and book consultations and test results, with greater control over where they are treated, have already been announced. The goal is to make the system more efficient and reduce the number of missed appointments.

NHS England Chief Executive Amanda Pritchard said: "The radical reforms in this plan will not only allow us to deliver millions more tests, appointments, and operations, but do things differently too – boosting convenience and putting more power in the hands of patients, especially through the NHS app."

The overall waiting list for NHS appointments, procedures, and surgeries in England stands at just under 7.5 million.

No target level has been set in the plan, but ministers say that the waiting list will inevitably fall as measures to meet the 18-week benchmark take effect.

The funding for NHS England has been set for the upcoming year, but the additional money needed to support extra activity in hospitals will be outlined in the government's spending review later this year.

Professor Phil Banfield, chair of the BMA Council, expressed doubt over whether the plan could be delivered.

"Doctors have been just as frustrated as their patients by the lack of facilities to deliver care and want to bring waiting lists down," he said.

"But the reality is that without the workforce to meet constantly rising demand, we will not see the progress we all hope for."

Ed Argar, Shadow Health and Social Care Secretary, said it was the Conservatives who "revolutionised" the diagnostic process by rolling out 160 Community Diagnostic Centres.

He said the government's plan is "another announcement that makes clear after 14 years in opposition, the Labour Party have no new ideas of their own for the NHS – despite promising change".

"Patients cannot wait for more dither and delay from the government who promised so much, and so far have delivered so little," he said.

Liberal Democrat MP and health spokesperson Helen Morgan said the plan for waiting lists could risk "putting hip replacements over heart attacks", unless the "crises" in emergency and social care were addressed.

Ten of the best moments from the Golden Globes ceremony

Getty Images Zendaya smiling on the red carpet of the Golden Globes Getty Images
Zendaya was sporting a diamond ring on her engagement ring finger

The Golden Globes were a night to celebrate film, TV, and... love.

Last year, Timotheé Chalamet sent the internet into a frenzy as he piled on the PDA with his girlfriend Kylie Jenner at the ceremony, and this year it was date night again as the pair cosied up throughout the evening.

There was even more love in the air as A Different Man star Sebastian Stan is now officially officially dating Annabelle Wallis. He shouted out that he loved her during his acceptance speech for best actor in a musical or comedy film.

And if that isn't enough romance for you then Zendaya has stolen the show with rumours of a potential engagement. Here's more on that and eight other highlights from the awards ceremony that you may have missed.

1. Is Zendaya engaged?

Getty Images Zendaya on the red carpet of The Golden Globes Getty Images
Zendaya has been dating Spiderman actor Tom Holland since 2021

Zendaya brought her usual effortlessly sleek style to the red carpet but the internet seemed less interested in her burnt orange gown and more about what was on her finger.

The Challengers star was sporting a large diamond ring on the fourth finger of her left hand and some thought it might be a sign that she's engaged.

The 28-year-old has been dating Spider-Man actor Tom Holland for the past four years.

Fans immediately started speculating about their possible engagement, but one pointed out on X: "They're very protective about their relationship, so would she actually wear the ring on the red carpet?"

2. Nikki Glaser is a one-woman fashion show

Getty Images Nikki Glaser wearing a pope's hatGetty Images
Nikki Glaser managed to change into 10 different outfits throughout the evening

If you're hosting the Golden Globes, naturally you've got to look the part. For Nikki Glaser that meant a whopping a 10 dresses across the three hour ceremony.

The comedian started off the night wearing a strapless metallic dress on the red carpet before switching to a halter neck silver sequined gown to kick the ceremony off.

The 40-year-old seemed to use every advert break across the show to switch into something different backstage and some of her other outfits included a sparkly purple dress, a high-slit red gown and a tight-fitting black plunge number.

Our personal favourite outfit? A Wicked-inspired bright pink sequined dress that she wore with a pope's hat as she sang "you're going to be pope-ular".

3. What's it like at The Beverly Hilton?

Getty Images Selena Gomez and Benny BlancoGetty Images
Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco announced their engagement in December

If you even go to the bathroom at The Beverly Hilton, you're likely to run into a celebrity.

Turn the corner, bam - Melissa McCarthy. Turn another - Jean Smart and the rest of the cast of Hacks.

The hotel in the heart of swanky Beverly Hills had a large security perimeter with barriers, armed guards and patrols, but once a person is inside - it's like a playground for Hollywood's A-list.

Some hunted for drinks, others were wrangled by publicists to interviews and photo shoots with eager journalists.

Roaming around the hotel, Selena Gomez, hot off her film Emilia Pérez winning four awards, was seen with her new fiancé Benny Blanco. He kissed her shoulder as he trailed behind her in an intimate moment.

4. A message to Japanese actors

Getty Images Tadanobu Asano, Anna Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, and Cosmo Jarvis on the red carpet at the Golden Globes Getty Images
Tadanobu Asano, Anna Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, and Cosmo Jarvis posed with their awards on the carpet

Shōgun, a series set in 17th century Japan, was a big winner at the Globes, taking home four awards.

Star Hiroyuki Sanada won best male actor in a drama TV series and backstage told the BBC that he hopes the show and their wins could "could break the wall of language" and open "doors much wider" not only for Japanese actors and projects but those across the globe.

His co-star Tadanobu Asano won best male supporting actor in a TV series and clearly shocked, jumped out of his seat and, in Japanese custom, bowed repeatedly - first to those at his table then everyone in the audience and then to the cameras, which had panned to him.

"Wow!" he said when handed the award on stage. He acknowledged that he's a new talent in the US and started off by introducing himself to the crowd.

"Maybe you don't know me, so I'm an actor from Japan and my name is Tadanobu Asano," he said as the crowd laughed.

"I'm very happy!" he shouted through excited laughter, concluding his acceptance speech.

Backstage, he said his message to other Japanese actors: "If I can do this, anyone can."

5. Colin Farrell has fond memories of Andrew Scott

Getty Images Colin FarrellGetty Images
Irish actor Colin Farrell spoke of his friendship with Andrew Scott while accepting his award

Irish actor Colin Farrell picked up his third Golden Globe, for playing the Batman villain in the HBO series Penguin.

Accepting his speech he mentioned some of the other nominees in his category including fellow Irishman Andrew Scott.

He recalled their first movie together, Drinking Crude, and said: "[Andrew] who I did my first film with 25, 30 years ago. You can't even find it on Betamax. It doesn't exist. But we go back that far."

Getty Images Andrew ScottGetty Images
Andrew Scott was nominated for Ripley

He added to Scottish actor Richard Gadd, whose experience of stalking and sexual assault inspired the Netflix hit series Baby Reindeer, that "you broke my heart with your work this year".

In his speech, Farrell also spoke about the three hours it took to be fitted with prosthetics to make him the bloated villain in Penguin.

"In the morning, I drank black coffee, listened to 80s music, and I became a canvas for that team's brilliance."

Farrell also said: "Thank you for employing me. And yeah, I guess it's prosthetics from here on out."

Backstage, Mr Farrell acknowledged his lengthy Hollywood career and said despite his win, "I certainly don't consider myself at the top of any pile".

He said after his nearly 30 years acting, he doesn't feel a sense of pride, but rather, just feels "very grateful".

7. Wicked stars try to speak Gen Z

Getty Images Jeff Goldblum and Michelle YeohGetty Images
Jeff Goldblum and Michelle Yeoh said they had no idea what 'zaddy' meant

We've all been holding space for Wicked this year and Michelle Yeoh and Jeff Goldblum were providing us with our Wizard of Oz fix in classic boomer style.

"People have been calling me Zaddy but I don't know what that means," Goldblum said while Yeoh added that she was just as confused by people telling her that she's been "serving mother".

Despite being clueless to the meaning of the Gen Z language and looking even more baffled as Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande tried to explain the meaning behind these words, they both said they love it.

"Let's see who ate," Goldblum said as he introduced the nominees for a category.

Getty Images Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Marc E. Platt, Jon M. ChuGetty Images
The cast of Wicked spoke to the BBC backstage

Backstage the cast of Wicked spoke to the BBC about whether there was a future for the Land of Oz in a TV series.

The film's producer Marc Platt joked that the film "is already a show" - on Broadway. Beyond that, though, he said: "It's hard to predict."

Asked by the BBC about the film transcending into a culture phenomenon with countless memes and viral clips, Platt said it speaks to the "timeless" material the film is based on.

"When something becomes a cultural phenomenon, you can't really predict that. It's very exhilarating," he said.

8. Elton's eye sight 'not as bad as it seems'

Getty Images Elton John and Brandi Carlile presenting an awardGetty Images
Sir Elton cheered as the award for best original film score went to Challengers

Sir Elton John joked about his sight loss as he presented the award for best original film score with Brandi Carlile, who he sang the track Never Too Late with

The 77-year-old singer revealed in September that his vision has been affected in his right eye after contracting an infection in the summer.

In December he said he had been unable to watch his own musical, The Devil Wears Prada, due to the infection.

But, on stage he told the audience: "There has been a lot of stories going around about my regressive eyesight, and I just want to reassure everyone it is not as bad as it seems."

"I'm so pleased to be here with my co-host, Rihanna," he joked.

Sir Elton cheered as it was announced that US musician Trent Reznor and English composer Atticus Ross won the award for the musical score for erotic tennis film challengers.

9. 'Brazil is celebrating'

Getty Images Fernanda Torres holding the Golden Globe award Getty Images
Fernanda Torres won best female actor and beat Hollywood heavyweights like Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman

Fernanda Torres's surprise win for best drama actress in the Brazilian political thriller I'm Still Here even surprised her.

She called the win over Hollywood heavyweights - including Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet - both "strange" and "weird".

"I never thought I would win", she said, because there were "so many great performances in English, so this tells so much about the difference in cinema nowadays."

She was asked about the celebrations happening back in her home country of Brazil, with one reporter remarking that it was like she'd won the country the World Cup.

"It is something very patriotic that's happening in Brazil with this film," she said, noting the country was "very happy" thanks to the Golden Globes.

In her acceptance speech she noted that the only other Brazilian actor to be nominated at the Globes was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro.

10. 'Being in your 60s is a golden age'

Getty Images Jodie Foster at Golden GlobesGetty Images
Jodie Foster told the BBC that being in your 60s feels like the golden age

Several winning actresses tackled the topic of age at the awards.

Demi Moore, 62, noted in her acceptance speech for best film actress in The Substance that she'd spent much of her career believing that while she was successful, she would never receive any major Hollywood accolades.

She said the award reflected the message of the film, a body horror about a woman who trades her body for a younger, more beautiful version of herself.

"I'll just leave you with one thing that I think this movie is imparting is in those moments when we don't think we're smart enough or pretty enough or skinny enough or successful enough, or basically just not enough," Moore said.

"I had a woman say to me, just know you will never be enough, but you can know the value of your worth if you just put down the measuring stick.

After winning her award, she told journalists backstage about how many women spend much of their lives as caretakers and don't get to spend their energy outward. And now, at 62, she is and "it feels really damn good".

Jodie Foster, who is the same age as Moore, won the award for best actress in a limited series and said the 60s are a "golden age" because there's like "a hormone that happens when suddenly you go, 'Oh, I don't really care about all the stupid things anymore".

She called this era the "most contented moment in my career."

How The Vivienne became a breakout star of British drag

Getty Images The Vivienne Getty Images
The Vivienne forged a successful TV career after winning RuPaul's Drag Race UK

Known to the world as The Vivienne, James Lee Williams was one of the biggest breakout stars of British drag, and it all started with an impression of Donald Trump in 2019 on the first season of RuPaul's Drag Race UK.

Like many of the drag queens on the show, The Vivienne was unapologetically unique and hilariously straight-talking, but she also had something more: pizzazz.

Described by judge Michelle Visage as "the best Snatch Game character in the history of the show", it was The Vivienne's President Trump impression - complete with pouted lips, orange makeup and a floppy blonde wig - in the Snatch Game that won her the show.

That win consolidated The Vivienne's influence in the drag community and her career in the world of TV and musical theatre flourished.

Bold, glitzy and saucy looks

Watch: Moment The Vivienne wins RuPaul's Drag Race UK

Giving one of the most memorable performances in the Snatch Game is no easy feat, but The Vivienne's highlights from the show go far beyond her Trump impression as she was responsible for some of the show's most iconic moments.

Having adopted the drag name The Vivienne because of a love for wearing Vivienne Westwood clothing, her weekly outfits on the catwalk were second to none.

On the show, she described her drag style as being "like a Scouse wife who has come into money, she moved to LA and blew it all and then she's had to move back to Liverpool".

Without a contour line out of place and a perfected walk in stilettos, she wooed the judges with her bold, glitzy and saucy looks.

PA Media The Vivienne dressed as Queen Elizabeth on RuPaul's Drag Race UK PA Media
The Vivienne made everyone laugh with her dance moves dressed as Queen Elizabeth

Her 'Queen Elizabeth walking around Balmoral' outfit, which saw her wear a gold poncho and grey knitted skirt with fluffy ducks attached to it, was one of her most memorable.

Combine that with her doing the floss dance in the outfit and she had viewers, fellow contestants and even RuPaul crying with laughter.

In the final she was described by judge Graham Norton as having "it all". Fellow judge Alan Carr added that she had "trademark wit" and delivered a "comedy masterclass" with her impressions of Trump, Margret Thatcher and Kim Woodburn.

The Vivienne went on to be a contestant in the seventh season of RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars in 2022.

Skating to anthems by gay icons

PA Media The Vivienne and Colin GraftonPA Media
The Vivienne finished third on Dancing on Ice in 2023

In January 2023, The Vivienne became the first drag queen to appear on Dancing on Ice and was partnered with American skater Colin Grafton.

She finished in third place behind gymnast Nile Wilson and Joey Essex.

The pair skated to songs by gay icons such as Dolly Parton and Cher and particularly excelled in the movies and musical weeks, whether performing to Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious or Don't Cry for Me Argentina.

Her jaw-dropping ability to skate perfectly from day one meant not only did she never appear in the bottom two, but she also never appeared lower than third on the leader board.

But it was the week five performance that struck a chord with many as James chose not to perform in drag for the first time, confessing that it made him emotional dancing to Beyonce's Halo "without my armour".

James was widely praised for their decision, with one person on X saying that "'The Vivienne skating as James and not in drag in itself is inspiring".

Channelling the Wicked Witch of the West

Getty Images The Vivienne at the premiere of Wicked Getty Images
The Vivienne has channelled the Wicked Witch of the West on stage and off

Williams starred in a number of theatre shows, most recently in a role that seemed to be the perfect fit - the misunderstood yet strong and compassionate Wicked Witch of the West in the revival of The Wizard of Oz musical.

Starring alongside Aston Merrygold in the UK and Ireland tour, the performer reprised the role in the West End at the Gillian Lynne Theatre last year.

"I don't have many words to say as this is one huge dream," they wrote on Instagram. "Dream big kids."

The Vivienne channelled her Wicked Witch of the West role off-stage in November when she sent heads spinning in her emerald green sequined gown at the European premiere of the Wicked film.

Most recently, she was performing as the Childcatcher on the tour of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang and performed just a week ago in Blackpool.

TV appearances

Getty Images The VivienneGetty Images
The Vivienne went on to be a contestant in the seventh season of RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars in 2022

While The Wizard of Oz was The Vivienne's first theatre role, she was no stranger to TV and was able to successfully build a career in television after RuPaul's Drag Race, appearing in a range of programmes including Hunted, Emmerdale and the Great British Sowing Bee.

Over Christmas, The Vivienne appeared on a celebrity special of BBC's Blankety Blank.

In 2020, the Vivienne starred in a six-part series The Vivienne Takes on Hollywood on BBC Three.

The show saw the drag queen document her travels to Los Angeles in order to make a music video and was complete with her classic Northern humour and zingy one-liners.

Not all drag race contestants and winners have been able to build such a successful brand around themselves despite their humour and flawless looks, which is testament to how The Vivienne's personality shone through in all her work.

'Now I've got a crown': The Vivienne reacts to RuPaul's Drag Race UK win in 2019

Canadian PM Trudeau may quit within days, media reports suggest

Reuters Justin Trudeau at US embassy in Ottawa on 3 January 2025Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could announce his resignation within days, according to media reports.

He is considering stepping down as leader of the governing Liberal Party, which would also bring to an end his nine years as prime minister.

It follows months of pressure from his own MPs. Last month, his finance minister quit, citing disagreements on how to deal with Donald Trump's threat to levy US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Opinion polls suggest Trudeau's Liberal Party trails well behind the Conservatives with a general election looming some time this year.

The Globe and Mail reports that he could announce his intention to quit before he meets his party caucus on Wednesday, to avoid the perception that his own MPs forced him out.

Their sources said it was unclear whether Trudeau would leave immediately or stay on as prime minister until a new leader was selected.

And they stressed he had yet to make a final decision on his future.

Whoever takes over will have to lead the party through an election campaign while also navigating a possible trade war with the US.

The election must take place before October, but a change in leadership of the Liberal Party could increase calls for a snap vote in the coming months.

Trudeau's departure would bring to an end a defining era in Canadian politics.

He unexpectedly swept his party to power in 2015, winning a campaign that began with them in third place.

The fresh-faced young leader, aged 43 back then, promised a new kind of politics centred on an open immigration policy, increased taxes on the wealthy and battling climate change.

But his first term was dogged by scandals. In more recent years, he had been battling sinking popularity as frustration grew with the cost of living and his own style of governing.

More than a dozen of his own MPs have called for him to step down, while polls suggest two-thirds of voters disapprove of him.

Just 26% of respondents in a September Ipsos said Trudeau was their top pick for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

History is also not on Trudeau's side, with only two prime ministers ever serving four consecutive terms.

Poilievre rose to the top of his party in 2022 on a promise to reduce taxes, tackle inflation and protect individual liberties.

The 45-year-old also rallied support behind the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting about Covid mandates - a blockade that brought Canadian cities including Ottawa to a standstill.

Canada's next prime minister will have to address the threat of tariffs from incoming US President Donald Trump.

He has vowed to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods if the country does not secure its shared border to the flow of irregular migrants and illegal drugs.

The "grave challenge" this posed was referred to in the resignation letter of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who quit hours before she was due to deliver her annual budget.

Trudeau had informed her he no longer wanted her to be his government's top economic adviser.

Biden bans offshore drilling across vast area of US

BBC 'Breaking' graphicBBC

US President Joe Biden has announced a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling along most of America's coastline, weeks before Donald Trump takes office.

Trump had pledged to massively increase US fossil fuel production.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.

Ukraine renews attack on Russia's Kursk region

Getty Images A Ukrainian military man holding a Kalashnikov rifle walks past a building that has blown out windows in September in Sudzha, Kursk Region, Russia.Getty Images
Ukraine first launched its incursion into Russia's Kursk Region in August (file photo taken in September)

Ukraine has launched a fresh offensive in Russia's Kursk region, the Russian Defence Ministry says.

In a statement, the military said efforts to destroy the Ukrainian attack groups are ongoing. Officials in Ukraine have also suggested an operation is under way.

Ukraine first launched its incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August last year, seizing a large chunk of territory.

In recent months, Russian forces have made big gains in the area, pushing the Ukrainians back, but failing to eject them entirely.

In a statement posted on Telegram on Sunday, Russia's defence ministry said: "At around 9am Moscow time, in order to stop the offensive by the Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counter-attack by an assault detachment consisting of two tanks, one counter-obstacle vehicle, and 12 armoured fighting vehicles."

The head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said there "was good news from Kursk Region" and that Russia was "getting what it deserves".

Ukraine's top counter-disinformation official Andriy Kovalenko said in a Telegram post on Sunday: "The Russians in Kursk are experiencing great anxiety because they were attacked from several directions and it came as a surprise to them."

It's unclear whether the offensive is sufficiently large-scale to lead to any significant changes on the frontline.

Kyiv's forces are reportedly suffering from manpower shortages and have been losing ground in the east of Ukraine in recent months, as Russian troops advance.

It comes as the Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched another drone attack on Ukraine overnight.

It said it had shot down 61 drones over Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyy regions

There were no direct hits, but a few houses were damaged in Kharkiv Region by an intercepted drone, the air force said.

A BBC graphic showing a map of Russia's Kursk region, which borders eastern Ukraine

In November, Ukraine reported its troops had engaged in combat with North Korean troops in the Kursk region.

The appearance of North Korean soldiers was in response to a surprise attack launched across the border by Ukrainian troops in August, advancing up to 18 miles (30km) into Russian land.

Moscow evacuated almost 200,000 people from areas along the border and President Vladimir Putin condemned the Ukrainian offensive as a "major provocation".

After a fortnight, Ukraine's top commander claimed to control more than 1,200 sq km of Russian territory and 93 villages.

Some of that territory has been regained by Russia but Ukraine still has troops in the Kursk region.

Harris to certify Trump's US election win, four years after Capitol riot

Reuters Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shaking hands Reuters
Trump and Harris shaking hands ahead of a presidential debate last year

US Vice-President Kamala Harris will on Monday preside over the official certification in Congress of the result of November's presidential election - a contest that she lost to Donald Trump.

The date also marks the fourth anniversary of a riot at the US Capitol, when Trump's supporters tried to thwart the certification of Democratic President Joe Biden's election victory in 2020. Normally the occasion is a mere formality.

Heavy security is in place in Washington DC, and Biden has vowed there will be no repeat of the violence on 6 January 2021 - which led to several deaths.

As lawmakers meet in Washington DC, heavy snow forecast for the American capital could prove disruptive.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to go ahead with the certification at 13:00 EST (18:00 GMT) in spite of the weather, telling Fox News: "Whether we're in a blizzard or not, we're going to be in that chamber making sure this is done."

As the current vice-president, Harris is required by the US Constitution to officially preside over the certification of the result, after Trump beat her in the nationwide poll on 5 November.

Trump won all seven of the country's swing states, helping him to victory in the electoral college, the mechanism that decides who takes the presidency. It will be Harris's job on Monday to read out the number of electoral college votes won by each candidate.

Trump's second term will begin after he is inaugurated on 20 January. For the first time since 2017, the president's party will also enjoy majorities in both chambers of Congress, albeit slender ones.

Trump's win marked a stunning political comeback from his electoral defeat in 2020, and a criminal conviction in 2024 - a first for a current or former US president.

Amid the dramatic recent presidential campaign, Trump also survived a bullet grazing his ear when a gunman opened fire at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania.

While away from the White House, he has faced a slew of legal cases against him - including over his attempts to overturn the 2020 result, which he continues to dispute.

Following his defeat that year, Trump and his allies made baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud - claiming the election had been stolen from them.

In a speech in Washington DC on certification day, 6 January 2021, Trump told a crowd to "fight like hell" but also asked them to "peacefully" make their voices heard.

He also attempted to pressurise his own vice-president, Mike Pence, to reject the election result - a call that Pence rejected.

Rioters went on to smash through barricades and ransack the Capitol building before Trump ultimately intervened by telling them to go home. Several deaths were blamed on the violence.

Trump's pledges after returning to office include pardoning people convicted of offences over the attack. He says many of them are "wrongfully imprisoned", though has acknowledged that "a couple of them, probably they got out of control".

Conversely, Biden has called on Americans never to forget what happened.

"We must remember the wisdom of the adage that any nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it," Biden wrote in the Washington Post over the weekend.

For Trump's Republican Party, the new Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signalled a desire to move on, telling the BBC's US partner CBS News: "You can't be looking in the rearview mirror."

BBC banner graphic reads: "More on Trump transition"

What are my rights if my home is flooded or damaged?

Flooding: What are my rights if my home, car or work is affected?

  • Published
People wade through water on a street in Pontypridd, Wales, with an emergency worker in the foreground and two vehicles also partially submerged.Image source, Getty Images

Storm Bert is the latest intense spell of weather that has caused extensive damage in various parts of the UK.

As the clean-up begins, people will find insurance cover and compensation can vary significantly depending on the level of impact and the small print in policies.

Some automatic protection may be in place.

My home or business premises is flooded. What should I do?

Safety is the key priority, so residents and business owners and their employees should only return to the property when it is safe to do so.

The Association of British Insurers (ABI) says most home buildings, contents and commercial business policies cover storm damage.

Commercial policies cover damage to premises and stock. Business interruption cover, which may be included or purchased separately as part of an insurance agreement, will cover additional trading costs.

Comprehensive motor insurance covers the cost of repairing or replacing vehicles damaged by storms.

The ABI has a six-step recovery guide, external on what to do if your home or business is flooded:

  • Contact your insurer as soon as possible: They will advise on emergency accommodation or temporary alternative trading premises

  • Assess the damage: A loss adjuster will assess the claim

  • Cleaning and stripping out: Work should start within four weeks

  • Disinfecting and drying your home: This can take from a few weeks to several months

  • Repair and reconstruction: A builder appointed by your loss adjuster should begin after you get your drying certificate

  • Moving back in: This can take between a few weeks and a year or more, depending on the extent of the damage

Insurers can advise on ensuring repairs are resilient and more resistant to future floods.

Anyone who may not have been affected this time, but may be in the future, should consider taking steps to ensure they are prepared, external.

Do I receive compensation if my power was cut off?

Some homes have been without power during these storms, making life particularly uncomfortable during the extreme weather.

There are rules in place that mean compensation may be paid, external by the local electricity distributor.

The level of compensation is £70, with further payments of £70 if the situation continues for a long time. However, whether this is payable, and when, depends on the severity of the situation in each area.

The Energy Ombudsman, an impartial referee following complaints, points out that residents without power should be kept updated on the situation and on their right to compensation by their local distributor.

Do I have to go to work?

Employees are urged to contact their workplace if they have problems getting to work and employers should try to provide alternative working arrangements where possible, according to the latest advice, external from the conciliation service Acas.

Acas's top tips for workers affected by the bad weather include:

  • Informing your boss as soon as possible if you cannot get into work

  • Checking if there are alternative travel options

  • Asking about flexible working arrangements

  • Considering any urgent work that needs to be covered

The service also says if you're available to work but your place of work is closed, then you will usually be entitled to normal pay.

My travel plans were disrupted, what are my rights?

A host of rail routes have been affected by the recent storms, external, owing to debris on the line as well as flooding.

A number of train operating companies in affected areas have issued advice for customers.

Generally, refunds are available for cancelled trains, external, or if you do not want to travel owing to the weather.

For delays, irrespective of the reason, many companies offer an automatic compensation service, although a claim still needs to be made. It can be more complicated for those with season tickets.

If you are booked on a specific service which is cancelled, then you must check with staff instead of simply getting on the next available train to your destination.

Is there help available if my flight was cancelled?

Some flights have been affected by the latest bad weather.

If a flight is cancelled then you can take a refund, or an alternative route or flight to your destination. You must talk to the airline, rather than booking it yourself.

The airline should look after you, such as providing meals if it is a long delay, but they do not have to pay the extra compensation that would be due had the delay been the airline's fault.

马斯克能否影响德国大选?

特斯拉老板、社媒X老板、航天企业SpaceX老板马斯克近期屡屡公开声援右翼民粹的德国选项党,引发了巨大争议。这位亿万富翁,曾斥资2.5亿美元助川普重新入主白宫;他能否也在德国发动这样的金元攻势?

美司法部要求最高法院拒绝特朗普暂缓TikTok禁令的请求


2025-01-06T11:52:09.153Z
特朗普打算如何“拯救TikTok”?

(德国之声中文网)美国最高法院2025年面对的第一桩备受关注的案件,涉及中国价值最高的科技公司之一、数以百万计的美国用户和美国最大的几家社交媒体平台。

根据现任总统拜登在2024年4月签署的联邦法令,TikTok要么在1月19日之前与母公司字节跳动剥离,要么就面对在美国应用商店被下架的命运。对此TikTok向最高法院提交了上诉,理由是相关禁令违反了言论自由。最高法将于1月10日就此举行听证会,此时距离当选总统特朗普就职只差十天。

TikTok真的会在美国被禁吗?

曾在第一个总统任期内强烈抨击TikTok并且扬言要将其封禁的特朗普,如今却表示自己要“拯救TikTok”,并且向最高法院提出了暂缓禁令的请求

位于华盛顿的美国最高法院将于1月10日举行听证会

而即将离任的拜登政府司法部则在上周五敦促最高法拒绝特朗普的相关请求,并强调“中国试图通过收集美国人的敏感数据并进行秘密恶意影响行动来破坏美国利益”,这一点是毫无争议的。

独立信用研究公司CreditSights的法律专家莱特纳(Mark Lightner)对“雅虎财经”指出,如果美国最高法院决定维持禁令,将会对TikTok在社交媒体领域的竞争对手带来好处,因为这将会使广告收入通过再分配流向Meta等平台。

而其他为TikTok提供微芯片和云计算服务的美国科技公司可能也会因此而蒙受营收损失。

美最高法会如何应对?

莱特纳表示,最高法院只在1月10日举行辩论,应该不会做出暂缓TikTok禁令的裁决。未来几周的一个可能结果是,最高法院最终认定相关法令符合宪法,维持其效力。而特朗普如果要想推翻法令,必须由国会立法层面来处理。

在美国TikTok颇受欢迎,大约一半美国人(1700万)都使用这一社交软件,在该平台上获取资讯。如果美国真的封禁TikTok,这意味着用户很快就无法访问这一社交平台。

TikTok在法庭文件中指出,据估计关闭一个月将导致该平台流失其在美国三分之一的日活跃用户。

去年年底,特朗普在自己私人拥有的海湖庄园会见了TikTok首席执行官周受资。目前尚不清楚他打算如何撤销即将在1月19日生效的法律。在去年的国会表决中,有关TikTok“不卖就禁”的法案得到了民主党和共和党的一致支持。  

(雅虎财经、美联社)

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

事实核查:万斯关于选项党和纳粹的说法是错误的

Kathrin Wesolowski
2025-01-06T11:38:19.180Z
美国候任副总统万斯

(德国之声中文网)先是马斯克,现在是万斯:德国即将大选之际,美国传出对德国右翼选项党(AfD)的支持之声。世界首富马斯克以及美国候任副总统万斯的言论引起极大争议。

万斯不仅批评美国媒体将德国选择党描述为接近纳粹,他还声称这一右翼民粹主义政党在德国最坚决抵抗纳粹的地区最受欢迎。是这样吗?

万斯的贴文

德国之声事实核查:错误。

首先,《纽约时报》或福克斯新闻等美国媒体有时确实将德国选项党与国家社会主义联系在一起。这也是因为选项党本身有时也会使用国家社会主义口号。例如,2021年,曾担任历史教师的选项党政客比约恩·霍克(Björn Höcke)因公开使用国家社会主义被禁止的口号 “一切为了德国”而被判处罚金。

此外,选项党的一些地区分支及其青年组织被认定为右翼极端主义,选项党自身则被认定为有右翼极端主义嫌疑。该党党首魏德尔(Alice Weidel)将5月8日德国从纳粹统治下获得解放的周年纪念日成为自己国家的失败日。

选项党在德东特别受欢迎

现在,候任美国副总统万斯声称,选项党在德国最坚决抵抗纳粹的地区最受欢迎。然而,他没有为此提供任何证据——正如我们的研究表明,他的说法也是错误的。

目前,2025年德国联邦大选即将举行之际,大多数民调是调查全国的整体状况,而非各地区的情况。在2021年上一次联邦选举中,选项党在图林根州、萨克森-安哈尔特州和萨克森州部分地区凭借选票上的第二票获胜。德国大选的选票中,第二票决定一个政党在德国联邦议会获得多少议席。总体而言,这一趋势在所谓新联邦州(梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚、勃兰登堡、萨克森-安哈尔特、萨克森和图林根),即前东德地区尤其强劲。

在德国2024年6月欧洲选举的结果中,也看到类似的状况。当时,选项党在德东地区也特别成功。在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚、勃兰登堡、萨克森-安哈尔特、萨克森和图林根,选项党获得至少27%的选票,成为这些联邦州中获得选票最多的政党。在整个德国,选项党获得了15.9%的选票。

在这些联邦州的上次州议会选举中,选择党的表现也尤为强劲。

为什么万斯的说法是错误的

希特勒的政党——国家社会主义德国工人党(NSDAP)于1933年上台。1932年11月6日,希特勒上台前的最后一次国会选举中,国家社会主义德国工人党以33.1%的得票率成为最强势力。

如果看一下1932年11月各地区的选举结果,会发现纳粹党在德国大部分地区获得最多选票,包括德国东部以及今天许多人投票给选项党的地区,——但在德国许多其它地区也是如此。

研究与万斯的说法相矛盾

1933年3月的德国国会选举中,国家社会主义德国工人党实力更为强大,在大多数选区获得了最多的选票,其中德国北部和东部是其据点。然而,这次选举历来被描述为不自由,因为纳粹党及其支持者大规模恐吓选民,有时甚至使用暴力。

因此,万斯关于选项党受青睐地区曾最强力抵抗纳粹的说法是错误的。

慕尼黑大学研究者哈格迈斯特(Felix Hagemeister)在接受德国之声采访时表示:“我们的研究与这一说法相矛盾。”他参与的研究分析了选项党获得大量选票的社区与1933年投票给纳粹党的社区之间的地理联系。

地理联系在德东尤为明显

哈格迈斯特说,从地理上看,1933年纳粹党受到大力支持的社区,如今选项党也获得了很高的支持率。但哈格迈斯特强调说 :“谈论因果关系是错误的。”这更多是与连续性有关,将右翼倾向代代相传。 “有研究表明,孩子们倾向于采纳父母的态度,”他补充道。

在东德,这种地理联系在当时国家社会党得到大力支持的地区和今天选择党受到支持的地区之间尤其明显。但在德国西部也存在这种相关性。

尽管如此,在将1930年代的选举结果与现今的选举结果进行比较时,尤其是当涉及到国家社会主义德国工人党和选项党时,仍必须十分谨慎。例如,联邦政治教育中心的作者博斯(Christian Booß)写道,不应将选项党的选民与80多年前国家社会主义德国工人党的选民以及将两个政党进行比较。

例如,2024年的一项分析表明,选项党的投票率部分归因于社会经济差异,即某些地区人们的生活条件,在一定程度上也影响了他们的投票行为。此外,文化和思想特征也有关。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

【404文库】清川书房之夸风月谈|2025,新年,不献辞

img

不管怎样,这是新的一天,新的一年。它总是让人们怀揣希望,抱有梦想。这是人类的本能。伍迪,艾伦在《雷霆穿梭人》中有一句话让我印象深刻:人类似乎有一种遗忘的本能。因为只有遗忘才能让人生存下去

但这不意味着你可以献辞。在一个一切下行的时代里,依然敢于献辞,是一种耻辱。

2024年,有什么可以献辞的吗?我们的国家,我们的社会,和我们的时代,在经历一个又一个劫难,我们比任何时间看上去,都更加脆弱,更加危险,也更加悲伤。我们整处在一个极度危险的世界和时光之中, 风浪巨大,但我们并没有任何的防护。

一整年里,我们并没有听到任何可以令我们欣慰的消息。我们依旧和那些邪恶的灵魂站在一起,尽管它们在来自以色列的传呼机炸弹,来自基辅的无人机的爆炸声中逐渐消失,或者困兽犹斗,他们甚至抵抗不了一个出身于恐怖分子的反叛者。

CDT 档案卡
标题:2025,新年,不献辞
作者:连清川
发表日期:2025.1.5
来源:微信公众号“清川书房之夸风月谈”
主题归类:新年献词
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

我们几乎从来没有这么孤单过。曾经被视为同盟的第三世界的民族主义者,终于都变成了独裁者,在时光中消失干净,连骨头都剩不下。我们只有来自非洲的那些乞讨者,陪着笑脸换取金元,假装盟友。这些伪装的朝贡者,没有任何忠诚可言。

其实,哪怕来自美国的敌意也无足畏惧,因为那并不是真的敌意。我们并不是二战中的日本,或者冷战中的苏联,我们从来都不是那个想要毁灭他们的力量。

那是一个现实主义者所构成的民族主义国家。因为现实主义,所以他们愿意和任何人妥协,但是因为民族主义,他们不会与任何试图伤害他们的人妥协。

他们并不是畏惧一个拥有航空母舰的世界老二。他们只是无法忍受你在美元贸易中占尽了便宜,却还要破坏他们的规则,跑到他们的后院里挖坑。

这个所谓无解的矛盾并不是什么修昔底德陷阱那么复杂的理论,也不是米尔斯海默言之凿凿的要在亚洲称霸。解决的路径简单到只有一句话:融入普世价值的世界轨道,尊重国际贸易的市场秩序。

所以真正的危机来自于我们自己,发生在我们中间。是青年人和中年人一样,在失去工作或即将失去工作的风中瑟瑟发抖,是疯狂的懦夫在苏州举起刀子杀向日本的孩子,也不管挡在他面前的是自己的同胞,长相友善然而勤勉努力的胡友平,是珠海的凶徒驾车冲进体育馆,无差别碾压无辜的人们;是前世界冠军吴柳芳艰难地依靠自己挣扎着生活,却最终难以逃脱被封杀;是北京的企业家被远洋捕捞,离奇死亡在内蒙古的指居里;是浦东机场的国际部分空空荡荡,中国不再是人们向往的目的地;是安福路和淮海路上再也没有欧美人的面孔,因为人们已经丧失了对于一个国度的信任;是万圣节和圣诞节里年轻人无处可去,有人害怕虚拟的鬼神多过于真实的贫困;是街上摆摊的穷苦人被四处驱赶,而他们连一日三餐都无从保障;

是昆明的孩子们在吃学校里公然提供的腐烂食物;是女硕士被拐卖强奸生育子女;是李宜雪被精神病哪怕她能够如此清晰直接地给出所有证据……

还需要我举出更多2024年的愤怒、悲伤和无助吗?

献辞是什么?献辞献给谁?1998年以及之后的许多年,《南方周末》和其它媒体的新年献辞之所以重要,并且一次又一次地令人感动,让人落泪,是因为国家有希望,人民有奔头,一切昂扬向上,人们充满希望。

可是我们正在一路向下。每个人都恓惶,每个行业都萧瑟,每个领域都危机,每个地方都忧伤。只有人民日报斗志昂扬,央视盛世平安。

《南方周末》曾经说,关心国脉与民瘼。流行的话说:放下建言情结,尊重国家命运。就是说,放弃关心国脉。流行的另一句话说,时代的一粒灰,落在人的头上,就是一座山。就是说,放弃关心民瘼。

一个既不关心国脉,也不关心民瘼的时代。你怎么还敢献辞?

这样的一个年份里,最应该做的事情,是承认退步, 承认失败,承认事情正在变坏,而不是献辞,或献媚。因为只有承认退步,失败,变坏,它才有可能进步,成功,变好。

不承认退步的下一步,是崩溃。

美国人为什么选择特朗普?真的喜欢他那张疯子一样的脸吗?不是的。特朗普告诉他们,国家坏了,我要让你们重新过好日子。他说的,和人民感受的一样。

所以人民选择他。

献辞是不承认退步,不承认变坏。是掩盖真相,是粉饰太平。

许多人对我说,不要说。没有那么坏。要学会技巧, 要学会忍耐。我很理解和感谢他们,他们关心我,担心我。

我知道。在机构媒体里十年,在媒体市场里30年。什么样的戴脚镣跳舞的把戏我不知道,没玩过?

我只是够了。不能忍耐,也不想忍耐。

忍耐会让事情变好吗?所有人都知道那叫自欺欺人。

你躺在地上任人殴打,忍耐会让事情变好吗?是希望他打累了放过你吗?忍耐并不会让他们收敛,只会让他们变本加厉。

有一种劝告叫顾全大局。你知道吗?你就是要顾全的大局。有什么比让人们有工作,让孩子读好书,有说话的权利,和有尊严的生活更重要的大局吗?当你被要求勒紧裤腰带的时候,是有人想松他们的裤腰带;

当你被要求顾全大局的时候,你就是被做进去的局。

还有一种劝告,叫忍辱负重。忍什么辱,负谁的重?

我们不生活在40多年前,陷落在红色的海洋里,看不见,听不到,想不清。我们睁开过眼睛,打开过耳朵,使用过脑子。我们看得见历史,听得见门外,想得懂文明。

我们明白所有一切的自由和文明。

忍辱负重,其实只是害怕。害怕受伤害,害怕被李宜雪,害怕被李文亮。但是忍辱负重了,一切还都照样发生了。

这几年,我一直重复一句话:一个不曾抗争的民族, 不值得同情。伊朗活该,因为是它自己选择了霍梅尼;加沙活该,因为他们纵容了哈马斯;阿富汗活该,因为他们并没有抵抗塔利班。

一个民族缺乏抗争精神,就配得上它所遭受的苦难。

不不不,我从来不是一个极端的人。我说的抗争,如果你是一个勇敢的人,你可以像被辣椒水喷眼睛的郭睿律师,她在那个时候想起的,是被刑讯逼供的人的痛苦,她要去拯救别人;你可以像我的朋友张丰一样,他的公号常常被删被封,他在他的书店里举办了几十个活动,成为了一个令人向往的论坛;你可以在微博,视频号,公号或者抖音里,说出你的不满和愤怒;你可以到苏州或者广州的日本人学校里去献花;

你可以像视频里看到里的小贩那样,开着三轮车躲开城管的追赶;你可以在警察拦住你要你缴纳罚款的时候拒绝。你可以不转发那些让你恶心的不信任的视频,并且删除那些转发的人。你不传播,不认同,不合作。

你不要忍耐,你不要顾全大局,你不要忍辱负重。尤其,你不要献辞。当一切无可言说的时候,保持沉默就是你的底线。

没有什么忍辱负重。其实你只是怯懦,犬儒,甚至想火中取栗。怀有幻想是因为你还想赢,努力修补是因为你以为你很重要。

其实你早就知道什么是对的,什么是错的。你假装不知道,或者你假装相信一切都会好起来的,是因为你以为当世界坍塌的时候,你会是那个安然无恙的人。

幻想的结果是幻灭,修补的结果是毁灭。曾文正干过,李中堂干过,张总督干过,盛宣怀干过。大清还是没撑住。

如果你知道什么是对的,那么惟一应该做的事,就是不断地抗争,直到那个对的事情发生。所有的忍耐, 顾全大局和忍辱负重,都不过让那个结果变得更加暴戾,血腥和惨烈。

抗争是不忍耐,是让他们知道他们并没有那么轻易能够得到;是不认同,让他们的每次行动都要付出更多的代价;是不合作,把事情一点一点地扳回到正确的轨道上来。

汉娜•阿伦特说的“平庸之恶”,是对每个人都有效的,对每个时代都有效的。因为每个人都有着充分的理由告诉自己,因为忍耐,因为顾全大局,因为忍辱负重,所以我写了献辞。

没有什么中庸,或者技巧的,或者同情的献辞。所有的献辞,都是可耻的。

在一个一切向下的时间里,我们最起码的底线,是不献辞。

❌