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专家:西藏地震提示该地区建水坝风险大

西藏本周发生的6.8级地震造成126人死亡,有四座水库受损。路透社周五(1月10日)引用专家的话说,这凸显出亚洲的两个大国中国和印度在地震多发的世界屋脊大肆建设水电的风险。

喜马拉雅地区大约有68座主要水坝,意图利用高海拔湖泊和河流的落差发电。另外还有101个水坝正在规划或建设中。但此次地震引起研究人员对该地区水坝所面临的地震风险的担忧。

2022年,中国宣布将在该地区的雅鲁藏布江下游修建世界上最大的水电大坝。2024年12月,中国政府批准了该项目,但没有透露有关建设何时可能开始和结束的细节,也没有透露新大坝项目可能产生的影响。

该项目的规模超过世界最大的三峡大坝的三倍多,设计清洁能源供应量为34千兆瓦,据称对中国在2030年之前实现碳达峰的目标至关重要。

路透社报道指出,地震过去给该地区水坝造成过破坏,特别是地震引发的山体滑坡和滚石。2018年发表的研究显示,2015年尼泊尔发生的大地震造成该国近五分之一的水力发电停顿,停顿时间长达一年多。

西藏、四川、青海和云南是地震频繁的地区,尤其是在青藏高原地区。2008年,那里发生了8.0级地震,死亡人数将近七万人。从2010年至2022年,在青海、四川、云南、甘肃等地区共发生过五次6.5级至7.1级地震,有3699人死亡,数万人受伤。

责编:安克 网编:何足

© 法新社

图为藏木水电站大坝,位于西藏山南县。喜马拉雅地区大约有68座主要水坝

美副防长:不想胁迫或强制中国 而是以实力保和平

即将卸任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在演讲中表示,美国的目标并非是要“胁迫或强制”中国, 而是希望以实力保和平。她说,美国必须紧急应对中国对美国利益构成的严峻挑战,但也必须充满信心。

“当然,竞争并不意味着冲突,因为没有人希望这样的战争带来全球性破坏。相反,我们希望中华人民共和国的领导层每天醒来时都能考虑侵略的风险,并告诉自己,今天不是发动侵略的日子,从今天到2027年、2035年、2049年甚至更久以后的每一天。”

美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院(SAIS)举办的一场活动上,围绕如何在美中战略竞争中超越中国发表讲话,总结了过去几年来的经验。她于2021年2月宣誓就任美国第35任副防长,成为国防部二号人物。1月20日,随着拜登政府下台,她也将卸任。

希克斯在演讲中强调,中华人民共和国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家,挑战长期以来稳定、开放的国际体系。

图为2015年9月中国阅兵式上展示的DF-26弹道导弹。美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在1月10日的演讲中强调,中国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家。
图为2015年9月中国阅兵式上展示的DF-26弹道导弹。美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在1月10日的演讲中强调,中国是唯一一个有意愿、并且越来越有实力通过结合其经济、外交、技术和军事能力来重塑国际秩序的国家。
(美联社图片)

对华战略:是威慑不是胁迫

希克斯特别澄清,美国是寻求透过“威慑”中国对美国及其盟友伙伴的侵略来防止冲突,其关键是愿意并有能力在发生战斗时获胜,但威慑(Deterrence)通常在被翻译成中文时,暗指“胁迫”(coersion)。她说:“我想明确一点,我们并没有试图胁迫或强迫中华人民共和国,这不是我们的目标也不是我们的方法,而且这并不是唯一一个我们了解到中华人民共和国可能会误解的国防部用语。也许一个更好的方式来描述我们的目标和方法是‘以实力换和平’。”

希克斯表示,在美中长期战略竞争态势下,美国不能自满。解放军的现代化进程迅速、雄心勃勃,而且高度集中于美国。尽管解放军领导层曾公开批评解放军的虚假战斗能力,但美国一直致力于提供真正的美国军事能力。她列举了美军从海洋到外太空的领域的能力,指出它们都具有作战可靠性和尖端性,并在很多方面超越中国。

五角大楼将有效应对解放军挑战

希克斯谈到:“即使他们的海军不断现代化,我们与英国和澳大利亚的合作也只会加强我们在水下的联合力量,我们正在重振美国的潜艇工业基地,以达到我们所需的规模和速度。四年来,我们一直寻求投资约 100 亿美元用于劳动力和工业基础,以巩固美国无声服务的杀伤力。我们正在重振美国的潜艇工业基地,以达到我们所需的规模和速度。”

她还指出,美国过去几年在太空轨道上进行了更大的投资,这是有史以来最大的太空预算2024年,美国发射的太空卫星数量超过了中国史上发射的卫星数量总和,自2021年以来,美国每年都如此。

希克斯说,美国是希望其在行动、投资和信息等方面能够保持威慑力,而不是毫无必要地挑起与北京的战争:“我们不认为冲突不可避免,但我们的工作是时刻做好战争准备,以防止战争的爆发。”

她说,北京可能会看到美国国防部预见到潜在的冲突,那是因为美国担心北京会挑起冲突。双方必须努力避免在这种动态中产生误解。“需要明确的是,我们不会、也没有理由与中华人民共和国进行争夺全球主导地位的意识形态斗争,他们不必屈服于1991年苏联的命运,以让我们繁荣发展并赢得 21 世纪的竞争。”

希克斯强调,对美国而言,胜利意味着确保美国及盟友和伙伴的持续安全与繁荣,确保国际体系不会对美国不利,胜利还意味着避免美中两个拥有核武器的国家爆发全面战争而对全球经济和人类造成的破坏。

希克斯表示,相对于中国,美国具有多方面优势:“我们拥有一个开放的社会,一个充满活力的创新生态系统,在充满活力的自由市场经济中首屈一指,而北京无法复制。我们在整个地区和世界各地都有可靠且能力日益增强的朋友和盟友,他们与我们站在一起,因为他们与我们有着共同的价值观,我们拥有世界上最成熟、最熟练、最专业的军队,由世界上最好的情报机构提供支持。”

最后,希克斯说,美国必须紧急应对中华人民共和国对美国利益构成的严峻挑战,但也必须充满信心。

责编:安克 网编:洪伟

© 视频截图/美国国防部官网

即将卸任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯(Kathleen H. Hicks)周五(1月10日)在演讲中表示,美国的目标并非是要“胁迫或强制”中国, 而是希望以实力保和平。

财经时时听 | 2025年中国经济面临何种挑战?

M0113ECON25

2025开年,中国迎来了人民币疲软,股市下滑的坏消息。随着特朗普重返白宫,美国对华加征高额关税的预期发酵,这对还未从疫情中恢复的中国经济带来又一重打击。中国领导人习近平罕见地在新年讲话中,承认经济面临挑战。那么,2025年中国经济将面临什么挑战?如何摆脱经济下行的局面?本期节目将就此进行探讨。参加讨论的嘉宾是美国华盛顿零极限基金管理人严英哲。

习近平承认经济面临挑战 美关税首当其冲

自从2020年疫情爆发以来,中国经济经历了清零政策和房地产危机等严重冲击,失业率高企,内需不振,通缩问题严重。而就在经济尚未恢复之际,中国又面临新的巨大挑战,那就是2018年在其第一任期内发起对华贸易战的美国总统特朗普,将重返白宫,并对中国进口商品加征高达60%的关税。

在2025新年贺词中,中国领导人习近平承认中国步履蹒跚的经济所带来的挑战,并誓言政府正在努力引领下一阶段的攻坚战。

在讲话中,习近平表示“当前经济运行面临一些新情况,有外部不确定性的挑战,有新旧动能转换的压力,但这些经过努力是可以克服的。”

他说,”大家要充满信心。”

纽约时报报道称,间接提到经济困难对习近平来说,是不同寻常的。他每年都会在新年贺词中宣扬政府过去一年取得的成就。近几周,中国政府越发明确地表示需要采取措施提振经济。

GDP能否保五?

新华社刊登习近平在全国政协新年茶话会上的讲话称,2024年中国经济增长了5%左右,实现政府年初设定的目标。他说,中国经济运行“总体平稳、稳中有进”。习近平指出,重点领域风险化解有序有效,民生保障扎实有力,就业、物价保持稳定。

习近平再次呼吁实施更加积极有为的宏观政策、推动经济持续回升向好,暗示对经济的支持将延续到2025年。

德国之声报道称,中国预计将2025年增长目标设定与2024年相仿的水平。最高领导层早些时候表示,愿意采取更强有力的刺激措施。

一般而言,2025年中国官方GDP增长目标要到3月两会召开时才会公布。

另一方面,从2024年前三个季度GDP增长数据来看,中国似乎不太可能实现“接近5%”的全年增长目标。9月底以来决策层推出一系列刺激举措,令2024年前景改善,世界银行近期将对中国2024年经济增长的预测从4.8%上调至4.9%。然而,研究公司荣鼎集团分析师日前在研报中写道,2024年中国经济增速要低得多,预计在2.4%到2.8%之间。

股市、汇市能否企稳?

2025年一开年,中国证券交易所和央行采取紧急行动以捍卫疲软的人民币和下跌的股市。股市下滑,企业融资困难,股民财富缩水不利消费。而人民币如果持续下滑,将导致资本外流情况更加严重,最终导致国力损伤。这对中国经济复苏形成挑战。

随着1月20日特朗普重返白宫的日子的临近,他扬言要对中国进口商品加征高额关税的威胁已经使得人民币大幅贬值,引发中国大陆国债收益率下跌,并导致2025年的股市开局艰难。

一月六日,人民币创下了16个月来的最低点,蓝筹股指数触及自9月以来最低水平,当日跌幅为0.8%。前一周该指数下跌5%,创两年来最大单周跌幅。

金融时报日前报道称,中国央行表示,可能会在2025年从当前1.5%的水平”在适当的时间“下调利率。外界解读,这是试图进一步调整,让人民币贬值的一个先兆。

根据彭博社报道,中国的经济基本面显示人民币可能进一步贬值。路透社此前报道,中共高层正在考虑允许人民币今年进一步贬值,以应对特朗普可能实施更高对华关税。

有海外媒体报道,去年11月,中国金融市场经历了史上最大规模的资金外流。

另据华尔街日报报道在2024年底中国外汇储备降幅超出预期。在中国央行公布的数据显示,截至12月末,外汇储备下降635亿美元,至3.202万亿美元。这一降幅大于该报针对经济学家估计的减少200亿美元。

外汇管理局表示,12月强势美元和全球金融资产价格下跌对中国外汇储备造成压力,但中国经济运行总体平稳,有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。

出口增势反转 内需是否能够拉动经济?

过去几年,尽管受到疫情冲击,房地产暴跌,内需不振,但中国的出口却一枝独秀,成为支持中国经济的一大主力。然而,近几个月来,这个趋势出现反转,其他增长动能能否弥补这个缺口,形成挑战。

中国2024年12月服务业活动呈现7个月以来最快速度扩张,主要是受到国内需求增加的推动,但海外订单下滑,反映贸易风险。

最新公布的财新服务业指数12月录得52.2,比前一个月的51.5上升0.7个百分点。

这一结果与官方PMI数据大体一致。官方PMI数据显示,包含服务业和建筑业的非制造业PMI从11月份的50,上升至12月的52.2.

财新智库高级经济学家王喆表示,9月底以来系列存量政策组合效益继续释放,积极变化增多。

尽管2024年12月供需扩张速度微升,但从调查分项来看,其需求增加主要是靠内需拉动。外需陷入收缩状态。自从2023年8月以来,新出口订单指数首次跌至临界点以下,且为近两年低点。

服务业企业对市场前景依然持乐观预期,但信心明显走弱。信心维持正值,但降低至2020年3月以来次低水平。

在新的一年,中国经济还面临其他多方面的重大挑战,包括房地产市场是否能够触底反弹,就业市场是否能够提供更多的就业机会等等

如果您对本节目有什么意见和建议,欢迎写信到fankui@rfa.org.或推特账号RFA_RYM与主持人进行联系。

© 路透社

习近平在全国政协新年茶话会上的讲话称,2024年中国经济增长了5%左右。

中国将向非洲提供10亿元无偿军事援助 培训七千名军警

综合国际媒体与中央社报道,中国外交部长王毅本月9日在尼日利亚宣布,中国将向非洲国家提供10亿元人民币(约合1.36亿美元)无偿军事援助,以帮助非洲国家培训6000名军队人才和1000名警务执法人员。

王毅表示,中国将坚定支持“非洲人以非洲方式解决非洲问题”,并反对外部势力以任何形式干涉非洲国家的内政。王毅还表示,中国将坚定支持非洲加强和平安全能力建设,将与非方建立落实全球安全倡议伙伴关系,推进安全共筑伙伴行动,并向非方提供上述无偿军事援助。

法新社周四报道称,尼日利亚是中国在撒哈拉以南非洲的主要贸易伙伴之一,向中国出口天然气和石油,同时从中国进口工业制成品。据尼日利亚政府数据,2023年中尼双边贸易额达到226亿美元。

该报道指出,中国是非洲最大的商业伙伴,2024年第一季度中非贸易额达到1678亿美元。近年来,中国通过公共银行贷款帮助非洲国家建设基础设施,但也导致一些国家债务加深。

责编:安克

© 路透社

中国是非洲最大的商业伙伴。

评论 | 伊里夏提:维吾尔语 -- 被斩断的根

大约2014年夏季,我在房前加盖门廊的工程开始了;我请了两位搞建筑装修的维吾尔人负责工程。他们有时忙不过来,就会请拉丁裔短工。

大约一个月后的一个下午,我发现干活的多了一位老人,我以为是他们请来的拉丁裔帮工,就没有在意。快到收工时间了,我走出来看看,并邀请他们进屋和我们一起吃晚餐再回家。

谈话间,我发现老人是维吾尔人,是两位搞建筑维吾尔人之一的远房亲戚,他来美国看望住在加利福尼亚州的儿子一家,已经几个月了;老人几天前来维吉尼亚探访其他亲朋好友,但不想呆在家里,就和他们一起来帮忙干活、聊天。

谈话间,老人告诉我他退休前是维吾尔自治区人大机关干部,负责为维吾尔官员起草讲话、翻译文件等;之前,他是乌鲁木齐一所维吾尔中学的文学老师;谈吐凸显他是一位学者,对维吾尔现代和古典文学有着极深刻的见解,对维吾尔近代史更是娓娓道来。

老人看到我家里满书架的维吾尔及中、英文书籍,特别激动;其中好多中文书,如《张治中回忆录》、《冰与火》、《红楼梦》、《三国演义》等书他都读过。他花了很长时间浏览我的书架,然后问我能否借给他几本维吾尔、中文书籍阅读,他特别想读艾力汗·图热的自传体回忆录《突厥斯坦悲剧》和齐亚·萨迈蒂的《艾尼巴图尔》、《艾合买提江·卡斯木传》,及中文的《毛泽东私人医生回忆录》,我爽快地答应了。

我问他在美国的生活,他苦笑了一下说,除了找不到人说话,感觉寂寞孤独外,一切都好。他说每天儿子和儿媳去上班后,只剩下他和孙儿女,而孙儿女除了简单维吾尔语如“Dada(爸爸)、Apa(妈妈)、和Buwa(爷爷)之外,基本听不懂维吾尔语,无法进行交流,所以他不得不抽空看电视跟着孙儿女学英语。

我说你可以教孙儿女维吾尔语,他说他试了,但效果不大,因为孩子在幼儿园、学校都是英语,回家电视上也还是英语;然后,他哈哈一笑,非常乐观地告诉我,他计划探亲结束回去时,带着孙儿女一起回去,把孙儿女送到喀什噶尔去生活一段时间。老人极其自信地说,只要让孩子们在维吾尔文化发源地的喀什噶尔待上一个月,准保孙儿女能说一口流利的维吾尔语回来。

老人临离开维吉尼亚前,借还书之际再来拜访,我们俩又聊了一会儿。当我谈到中国政策在向左转,习近平要回到毛泽东老路,重启文革那一套;而且,对维吾尔人的迫害性政策正在加码;可能有更大的灾难在等着维吾尔人时,老人不以为然,他信心满满地告诉我,不会的,就算习近平想那么做,也做不到。他说中国的老干部、中老年知识分子,都或多或少遭遇过文革的疯狂,绝不会让习近平重走老路。

他说维吾尔人的日子可能会不好过,但过一段时间,习近平到期交班后,就会好转。他总结性地对我说道:“老弟,我经历过共产党的历次运动,都是一阵风,长的几年,短的几个月。文革我们都过来了,还能有比文革更可怕的运动吗?不会的,放心,这种不得人心的政策,很快会有人出来纠正。”

我不想说老人愚昧,他很聪明,不仅了解汉文化、历史,而且维吾尔人文化、历史知识也很丰富;但大概是在体制内呆久了,对政治风向失去了敏感性,有点麻木,还有点幼稚;但我无意与一个一面之交老人进行辩论。

自那次告别后,我没见过那位老人;随着时间的推移,我也忘记了那位老人及和他的谈话交流。

2025年的新年前,在一次偶然的机会,我又与这位老人不期而遇;老人看起来真的是老了,头发胡须雪白,消瘦的脸上一副苍老和抑郁,眼睛也失去了光泽,几年前的自信和热情荡然无存。

我俩如久别老友重逢,极热烈地拥抱寒暄,然后就坐在一起聊了起来。老人告诉我,他2015年年初回了乌鲁木齐;同年年底,他的一位还在自治区政府的朋友,很神秘地告诉他,他如果可能,最好出国和儿女待一段时间。他先是犹豫了一阵,但发现维吾尔自治区的高压态势不仅没有减缓,而是一波又一波的抓人高潮开始了;即便退休人员,只要是维吾尔人,都被要求表态“发声亮剑”,并被要求上缴家里的维吾尔语书籍。

他说他也被迫表态了,也被迫“发声亮剑”了,家里的藏书也都上交了;但看着身边一起工作了一辈子的维吾尔朋友,有在职的官员,有和他一起退休的干部,有他认识的知名知识分子,一个接一个地消失;他开始害怕了,在极度的恐惧中,他找熟人花钱要回了被迫上交的护照;然后,在2016年年中,悄悄地离开了乌鲁木齐。

我说你一个退休干部,应该没有参与什么大事,有什么特别令他害怕的大事吗?他告诉我,确实也没有什么大事;只是在2009年7.5之后,中央派了几个联合调查组,召集了在乌鲁木齐的维吾尔知识分子,要他们开诚布公谈谈对7.5的看法,及发生的原因,并保证谈话内容保密,以后不抓辫子。

他说一开始大家还是有所顾虑,都沉默不语;中央调查组,就点名几位维吾尔体制内红色作家发表意见;听他们大谈什么中央不重视维吾尔干部呀等无关痛痒的问题,他和其他几位与会同道就有点坐不住了;就要求发言。在发言中,他和几位同伴指出,其实,7.5的深层原因是所谓“双语教育”和“维吾尔剩余劳动力”转移等问题导致。

他说,尽管当时及过后的一段时间,确实没有追究任何维吾尔知识分子的问题,大家也都以为就此过去了;但他发现,这次的大抓捕,有一部分维吾尔知识分子就是以反对中央“双语教育”政策等罪名被抓捕的,包括所谓“问题教科书”牵连维吾尔人,也都是当年在自治区官员鼓励下,向中央联合调查组反应“双语教育”和“维吾尔剩余劳动力转移”政策有大问题,必须停止,否则还会出问题的那些知识分子。

说着、说着,他声音哽咽:“那些人都是无辜的,我和他们大多数都认识,有些还是特别要好的朋友,也都年纪一大把了,我不知道他们能否活着走出监狱;说实话,至少他们当中的相当一部分,是真心相信中国政府一定会越来越开放,会信任维吾尔人,会给予维吾尔人更多自治的政府官员或知识分子。”

谈话越来越沉重,为了转移话题,我问他近况如何,他深吸一口气说到:“在美国的生活是无忧无虑,但寂寞、孤单;尽管儿孙绕膝,但心还是在家乡,”他不无忧虑地继续道:“我想念那些一起工作过的朋友,想念留在家乡的女儿和孙儿女;忧心那些被抓捕朋友。”然后是更深沉的叹息。

我继续努力使话题生活化,就问他是否和家乡女儿、孙儿女有电话联系,他说有;我问经常通话吗?他又深深地吸了一口气,回复说基本上是一个月一次,不敢太频繁,害怕给女儿带来更多麻烦。

我说你那边的孙儿女也都长大了吧,他苦笑了一下说:“是,他们都长大了,”然后他沉默了。我追着问道:“电话里,能和那边的孙儿女谈话吧?”老人稍显尴尬地看着我说:“谈话?可以,但他们都用汉语,连爷爷、奶奶、爸爸、妈妈都是汉语!伊利夏提老弟,你可能没有经历过这种境况。我每次听到孙儿女在电话里用汉语说‘爷爷好’时,我特别悲哀、伤心。几个月前的一次通话中,我似乎忘了他们在哪儿,当孙儿女在电话里问候说‘爷爷好’时,我实在接受不了,就严厉地训斥他们讲维吾尔语。结果,话没有说完电话就断了;再打过去,女儿接电话;她很委婉地告诉我,现在大家都讲国语,在家里也要讲国语。我知道了,我又给女儿惹了麻烦。”

看起来,任何话题,对维吾尔人而言,都不轻松;也是,对于一个在种族灭绝暴行之下呻吟挣扎的民族而言,哪来的轻松话题!

艰难的话题让我们彼此都陷入了沉思,过了一会儿,老人眼含泪水对我说:“伊利夏提,还记得你我第一次见面时的谈话吗?”我回答记得。他说:“我当时信心满满,以为美国的孙儿女,只要带他们回家乡待上一个月就可以学会维吾尔母语;没有想到,现在,不说美国的孙儿女,连家乡的孙儿女也不会讲维吾尔母语了;而且,现在,不说带孙儿女回家乡,连我自己都回不去了;而在家乡的女儿、孙儿女也出不来;我们太可怜了,家乡没能保住,现在连维吾尔母语也保不住了。”

他满脸忧愁地继续道:“现在,在美国,我无法和孙儿女进行交流,因为我的英语不行,而他们不懂维吾尔母语;在电话里,我无法和远在家乡的孙儿女进行交流,因为我的汉语不太行,特别是口语。我没有想到,真的没有想到,我和我的下下一代的文化、传统联系,就这样被活生生阻断了!中国政府制造的这一语言代际深渊,斩断了我们维吾尔人的家庭亲情,摧毁了维吾尔人的文化和传统!这是种族灭绝,伊利夏提老弟,这是种族灭绝!我们太幼稚,太幼稚了。我们天真地以为他们会信守承诺,会信守让我们自治的承诺!”

他继而愤愤不平地说道:“中国政府以反右、反地方民族主义、文革等政治运动,以反恐怖、反分裂、反极端主义等口号,一茬又一茬地剪灭维吾尔知识分子;每次,只要火没有烧到我头上,我总是保持沉默;总以为这是一阵风,会过去;但我没有想到,他们是有目的的在种族灭绝维吾尔人,在同化维吾尔人。说实话,老弟,我现在才认识到,这是他们的长期战略!我们都上当了!”

看着老人苍白脸上愤怒的眼神,颤抖着的嘴唇发出的绝望之声,我只能是机械地点头表示同意;我无意打断老人的倾诉,这是被欺骗一代苟活维吾尔知识分子最后的愤怒,是希望者幻灭时刻的怒气发泄。可以说,中国殖民者的铁拳,让老人在他满怀颐养天年之美梦时刻,使其无家可归;更甚,甚至使其失去了和下一代、下下一代,分享自己人生甜酸苦辣的温馨人生之黄昏岁月。

老人因热爱维吾尔母语,一辈子以维吾尔母语为其人生事业,到头却发现,延续千年的维吾尔母语及其传承的维吾尔身份,不仅使其流落异国他乡,且使其在自己的后代面前成了哑巴;发现老人一辈子引以为豪的维吾尔母语及其传承的文化底蕴,使其在异国他乡的余年孤寂惨淡。

最后,老人问我能否再给他借几本维吾尔语书籍,我还是很爽快地告诉他行。第二天,我早早为老人准备了十来本维吾尔语书;他中午过来拿书,吃完饭临告别时,我把准备好的几本书递给他。他拿着那些书,以一种文人特有的敬意翻阅、抚摸着。

我又拿出由世界维吾尔代表大会出版社出版发行的,由上世纪著名维吾尔独立运动领袖、历史学家默罕默德·伊敏·博格拉(Muhammad Imin Bughra)撰写的《东突厥斯坦历史》维吾尔语精装本,和由诗人、历史学家图尔贡·阿力玛斯(Turghun Almas)倾心书写的《维吾尔人》、《匈奴简史》、《维吾尔古典文学史》三本书的维吾尔语精装合订本,告诉他这是我送他的礼物。

他庄重地接过厚厚两本书,先是把书高高举过头顶,然后轻轻地拿到嘴边吻了一下封面,然后将两本书和其他书本一起,小心翼翼地放进他带来的背包,嘴里说着 “谢谢,谢谢……”走出家门上车。

我站在房前走廊,目送老人自车窗挥手驶别,直到他的车消失在街道尽头;内心一股悲哀袭上心头;我不知道,我是在和老人告别呢?还是在和他一起,在异国他乡的流亡中,在和那养育并滋润我成长的,和母亲的乳汁一起成为我身份不可分割一部分的维吾尔文化身份、维吾尔传统、历史告别?(本文仅代表作者个人观点立场)

© 路透社

看起来,任何话题,对维吾尔人而言,都不轻松;也是,对于一个在种族灭绝暴行之下呻吟挣扎的民族而言,哪来的轻松话题!

💾

洛杉矶大火 旅美中国民运人士投入救灾

近日,美国南加州洛杉矶地区发生火灾,一批居住在当地的中国民运人士也投入了与救灾相关的救援行动。

紧急倡议 迅速筹措物资送往庇护所

本次活动的组织者、中国民主党联合总部执行长界立建表示,这次救灾援助是紧急进行的,从发出倡议到采取行动的间隔时间很短:“我们是1月9号上午紧急(出)的一个援助(倡议)。这个倡议一出,我们在群里一呼吁,很多人筹备响应。当天(准备的)时间非常短暂,很多人就请假。因为老板听说这个事情是做援助火灾灾民,就特批假期。”

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

短时间内,响应本次援助活动的人数就达到了二十多人。他们在1月9日当天午后聚集在位于洛杉矶阿罕布拉的超市,购买了大量食物、矿泉水、卫生用品,也有人捐出了上百条毛毯和枕头。随后,他们组成车队前往位于帕萨迪纳市政厅的灾民庇护所。

界立建表示:“我们联络了庇护所,这都是他们紧急亟需的一些产品。”

在这支救援车队到达灾民庇护所后,他们将运送的救灾物资交给了在那里的工作人员。

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

中国民运人士筹备更多援助计划

界立建谈到了他们进行这次援助行动的一个重要目的:“我认为,是中国政府迫害我们,美国给了我们一个安全的港湾、一个家。美国有难,我们应该力所能及地去帮助美国。我觉得,这是美国伟大的一个原因,人人有爱。”

曾参与过上海白纸运动的房兰峰参加了本次援助活动。他告诉本台,中共的极端行为已经严重影响到了华人的形象:“我们和他们是不同的,我们是怀着善良、友爱的世界公民,愿意为文明社会贡献自己力所能及的力量。我们也呼吁更多华人朋友能积极参与到救灾捐助活动,让我们共同用实际行动、爱心去守护家园。”

本次救灾援助活动的情形
本次救灾援助活动的情形
(范英龙提供)

目前,洛杉矶当地的中国民运人士还在筹备其它参与救灾援助的计划。

中国民主党全委会洛杉矶执行长王中伟在1月9日接受了本台采访时介绍了相关情况:“稍晚一点,我们会投入一些行动,去筹措一些受灾区的人可能会用到的日常用品,比如说一些服装、一些个人卫生用品,或者饮用水等等。”

责编:何平

© 范英龙提供

本次救灾援助活动的情形

强权政治进入美中竞争? 特朗普不排除武力夺回巴拿马运河

美国候任总统特朗普近日威胁要夺取巴拿马运河以及格陵兰岛,引起外界热议。尤其在离美国本土更近的巴拿马运河,中国在这一地区的影响力日趋深厚,特朗普的说法引发外界对这一地区大国竞争态势的强烈关注。

巴拿马这个中美洲国家上一次在中文社媒上频繁出现还是在近几年的走线潮中,这一次却是因为特朗普的一句话。

离1月20日正式就职不到两周,特朗普本周二(1月7日)在其佛罗里达州的海湖庄园接受记者采访时说,对巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛的控制对美国国家安全至关重要,他不排除使用军事力量取得这两个地方。他还指责巴拿马允许中国士兵控制了巴拿马运河。

此前在12月底,特朗普就曾在社交媒体上抨击巴拿马运河高昂的通行费,要求巴拿马降价,否则应将运河返还给美国。

这些说法传出后,巴拿马政府很快澄清,没有中国军队在巴拿马。但在中国通过一带一路项目将足迹深入美国后院,对拉丁美洲的影响力越来越大的背景下,特朗普的说法让外界关注到中美两国在巴拿马地区的竞争态势,及其可能对美中关系产生的影响。

图为巴拿马运河上的一处船闸。中国在该地区的影响力日趋深厚。
图为巴拿马运河上的一处船闸。中国在该地区的影响力日趋深厚。
(Arnulfo Franco/美联社图片)

美中在巴拿马的影响力

这条在二十世纪初开凿的运河在世纪结束前的多数时间处于美国控制下,但在卡特总统的推动下,美国于1999年从巴拿马撤军,运河由此交由巴拿马政府管理。但根据华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心2021年的报告,美国仍然通过与巴拿马签订的《关于巴拿马运河永久中立和营运的条约》(TREATY CONCERNING THE PERMANENT NEUTRALITY AND OPERATION OF THE PANAMA)维持对巴拿马运河的战略影响力。而每年从巴拿马运河通过的货物六成以上是来自美国或抵达美国。

但随着中国国力的增强,中国的足迹在拉丁美洲也越来越深,尤其是一带一路项目的展开,让中国扩大了对巴拿马的投资,尤其是运河两端的港口基础设施。其中引起关注比较多的是香港的长江和记实业的子公司,管理着运河太平洋和大西洋出口的两个主要枢纽巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港,以及2016年,中国路桥集团以9亿美元收购了巴拿马大西洋一侧最大的港口玛格丽特岛的控制权,这里是位于西半球最大的自由贸易区科隆自由贸易区内。

尤其值得一提的是2017年巴拿马时任总统巴雷拉断绝与台湾的外交关系,并承认中国。这在外界看来是为中国进一步扩大在运河关键基础设施的影响力铺平了道路。

巴拿马在与中国建交期间,豪尔赫·海涅(Jorge Heine)正在北京担任智利驻中华人民共和国大使,他告诉记者,中国是世界领先的贸易国家,是世界最大的出口国,也是第二大进口国,“所以对于像巴拿马这样依赖运输、物流以及交通的国家,与中国这样的国家建立正式的外交关系非常重要。”但他强调,这并不意味着中国比美国对巴拿马有更大影响力,“我认为巴拿马在处理与美中之间的关系时是比较平衡的,试图与两国都维持很好的关系。”

海涅目前在美国波士顿大学从事国际关系的研究,他告诉记者,巴拿马始终非常重视与美国的关系,“巴拿马与美国关系很好,现任政府很亲美国。”但他认为没有必要担心香港公司对于那两个港口的运营,“这是自1977年以来就是如此,并没有什么变化,并且在1997年美国联邦参议院有一个报告认为,这种状况对美国的安全和利益没有影响,也不足以构成担忧;”他强调,中国公司对港口的控制并没有提升。

据战略与国际研究中心的报告,2024年6月卸任的巴拿马总统科尔蒂索任职期间曾采取措施减少中国在当地的影响,包括停止中国在运河入口处建造大使馆,以及取消或推迟一些已启动的项目。但这份2021年的报告提到,中国“一带一路“向港口设施的扩张引起了美国的警觉,认为中国扩大影响力可能危及运河的中立性。

美国的担忧是否合理

美国艾德菲 (Adelphi University)大学文理学院院长、政治学教授王维正对记者分析说,美国方面的担忧与19世纪初美国形成的“门罗主义”有关,“就是有这样一种主张,就是认为西半球是美国的势力范围,这包括北美洲、南美洲和中美洲,他们是希望欧洲老牌的帝国主义不要来干涉美国在西半球的事务。”詹姆斯·门罗是美国19世纪初叶的第五任总统。

王维正指出,中国这些年在拉丁美洲势力的扩张可能影响到了美国传统上对其势力范围的认识,“基本上来讲,就是中国在美国后院已经另起炉灶,这让美国逐渐视中国为一个竞争对手,为此感到忐忑不安。”他强调,这实际上就是美中竞争的一环。

海涅大使则认为包括华盛顿智库在内的人不必太过担心中国的影响力,“我不认为这反映了巴拿马当地的实际情况,这些担心主要是出于世界舞台上的意识形态竞争。”

美国《纽约时报》则在报道中指出,特朗普对巴拿马运河作出这种发言可能与共和党的政治倾向有关,因为一些共和党人一直反对当初以中立的方式把运河交还给巴拿马;当初里根在竞选总统时曾强调,美国人民才是巴拿马运河的合法拥有者。

但王维正分析说,根据美国与巴拿马签订的条约,美国对于巴拿马仍然有很大的主动权,“如果有任何势力(没有明确讲是何种势力)想要夺取巴拿马运河,美国可以采取军事的力量排除。”

美中竞争回归19世纪强权政治?

美联社对特朗普的说法另有解释,其一篇相关报道指出,特朗普似乎是想拥抱一种新的帝国主义议程,他的语言反映了一种19世纪的世界观。

对此,巴拿马外交部长哈维尔·马丁内斯-阿查在1月7日表示,巴方期待与特朗普政府维持合作关系,但运河主权“不容谈判”。

海涅大使则对记者介绍说,特朗普的说法在拉丁美洲引起了很负面的评价,“该地区,包括巴拿马在内,对于特朗普的反应是比较负面的;如果他真的想在第二任期在西半球保持良好的关系,他不会愿意坚持这种说法。”

但据法新社报道,意大利总理梅洛尼周四(1月9日)对外表示,美国不会“武力吞并”格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河;特朗普的说法“更多是向其他大国”传达信息,她还强调,特朗普在这里指的是中国。

王维正也认为,特朗普的意愿未必是要坚持19世纪那种帝国主义的世界观,“我觉得他的主要想法就是想确定巴拿马运河的运作是永久中立,而且对美国利益没有损害。”

他指出,特朗普所抱怨的巴拿马运河收费太高,这也不是针对任何一个国家的,而是因为当地干旱,要维持运河水位的成本升高,所有通过船只都涨了价。这恰恰说明美中任何一个国家都无法单独对巴拿马运动的运作施加特别的影响。

责编:安克 网编:洪伟

© 美联社图片

美国当选总统特朗普近日宣称要夺取巴拿马运河以及格陵兰岛,引起外界热议。

Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Sprint to Remake Meta for the Trump Era

After visiting President-elect Donald J. Trump in November, Mr. Zuckerberg decided to relax Meta’s speech policies. He asked a small team to carry out his goals within weeks. The repercussions are just beginning.

© Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, has regularly spoken to friends and colleagues about his concerns that progressives were policing speech.

'I have nothing to go back to' - BBC reporter tells of LA fires heartbreak

BBC A young women in glasses wearing a mask to protect herself from smokeBBC
Lucy Sherriff fled the Palisades and returned to find her home destroyed

It's been four days since Los Angeles became an inferno - and my home became a pile of smouldering embers.

I'm now staying at a friend's house in La Crescenta, north of the city, after evacuating my condo in the Palisades, 30 miles (48km) away from where the fires first started on Tuesday morning.

I thought we'd be safe here, but with six active fires now burning across the city, nowhere feels safe. So far, LA's fires have forced more than 179,000 people including myself to evacuate.

Many people I know thought they had found refuge, only to have to flee again.

We've had our bags packed by the door, just in case we were ordered to leave for the second time in 48 hours.

On Thursday afternoon, the moment we were dreading happened - we got an emergency evacuation notice.

We panicked, and ran to load the cars again. I checked my car - low on gas - and sent my partner out to find some. He had to drive to four different stations before he found one with any supply.

The alarm, it turned out, was false, a mistake that rattled America's second-largest city, which was already on edge.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC Burned out remains of homes on Lucy's streetLucy Sherriff / BBC
The smouldering remains of Lucy Sherriff's home

As a climate reporter, I am used to covering extreme weather events. Just a few weeks ago I was interviewing residents who had fled the Malibu fires. Now I'm on the other side of the story.

The Palisades Fire has already been dubbed a historical wildfire. And it will forever be burnished in my memory because it's the wildfire that burned down my community and my home.

It began on the morning of 7 January. Small flames on the Santa Monica mountain-side that I could see from the Palisades Village. I watched it for a short while, the smoke stretching across the clear blue sky. Locals were taking photos of it.

An hour later, the flames had jumped across the ridgelines and descended down the mountain. I watched as the fire began to engulf homes and smoke billowed across the sky.

I was already extremely concerned about the Santa Ana wind warnings we'd received two days prior – up to 80mph (129kmh) wind gusts were forecast. Those, and the lack of rain we'd had made ideal conditions for a fire to spread quickly and intensely.

I felt how quickly the wind was changing, blowing embers and smoke across the town. And I could see the fire spreading, jumping from spot to spot so that it was soon surrounding the Palisades.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A street in LA with palm trees surrounded by burnt buildings and unburnt buildingsLucy Sherriff / BBC
Burned out buildings line the streets of Lucy Sherriff's neighbourhood

The scene was truly apocalyptic - a bright red sun cast an orange glow over us, and ash rained down like snow.

I ran back home and started making plans if I needed to evacuate. There didn't feel much point in leaving right at that moment because the one road out, Sunset Blvd, was gridlocked.

I packed the important stuff first - passports, birth certificates - and then when I felt I had a bit more time, I hosed down the front of the house, hoping the water would keep my condo, one of several terraced buildings in a small development, from succumbing to the fire.

I finally decided to leave when we were told there was a mandatory evacuation order for the entirety of the Palisades. I was also getting more concerned as the fire had spread to the mountains directly in front of my house, and I had heard the winds were only going to get stronger going into the evening.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A burned out car surrounded by burnt buildings as the sun shines through smokey cloudsLucy Sherriff / BBC

I never received a message about any evacuations or fire warnings on that first terrible day and nor did my partner. I was informed by neighbours.

I'm lucky I have a press pass and I could approach emergency services to find out what news I could. I'm so grateful that everyone I know managed to get out on time. A lot of us didn't realise how close the flames were to our homes, due to the lack of communication and information available.

It took a while to get out. There were thousands of cars trying to leave, all desperate to flee the flames. The frustration and fear was palpable.

I thought my home would be safe as it sits on the other side of Sunset Blvd, across from the mountains. I didn't think the fire would jump the road.

But when I got a text from a neighbour to say she saw Palisades High School on fire as she was evacuating, I knew that the fire was spreading further than anyone could have predicted. I had been watching the news - it was hard to look away - and it has been heartbreaking to see the school in flames, as well as some of our cultural landmarks, such as our local theatre.

Knowing that the wind speeds were only going to pick up as night fell, and it's much harder to fight a fire in the dark, I realised in that moment that my home might not make it. It was a sobering thought that I might be six months pregnant and homeless.

We arrived in La Crescenta Tuesday evening. The next morning I received the news from a neighbour that our house had made it through the night. I cried with relief.

Lucy Sherriff / BBC A fireman houses down a fire while standing on a roofLucy Sherriff / BBC

When we started to read about looting that was happening in the Palisades, we decided we would go and check on our house, and retrieve some of the irreplaceable belongings we'd left behind - photographs, journals and family jewellery.

We returned Wednesday afternoon and were allowed to drive in because of my press credentials. When we reached Sunset Blvd, our road, we saw flames and fire engines and in front of our block of condos. My heart sank.

We drove past and saw our entire cluster of condos had been levelled.

We parked the car, and raced around the back. As soon as I saw the scene I doubled up like I'd been hit. Where about 20 condos once stood there was a pile of burning rubble. The firefighters, their faces covered in ash, kept apologising that they couldn't save our home. I was sobbing and thanking them for doing so much already.

I had to call and tell all of my neighbours that their homes were gone. I could barely get the words out.

Most of my village, I'd say about 90%, has been razed to the ground. It's all gone. I'm reeling from the shock, from the devastation and from everything my community has lost.

I'm planning to leave the city and stay with friends further north where it's safe and there's no smoke. I think it will be a while before I want to come back to LA.

It's surreal to think there's literally nothing to go back to. No home, no library, no stores, no kids' karate dojo, no theatre, no community centre. It's all just gone. I keep thinking "I should have grabbed more of my stuff before I fled".

But then I think back to one crystal clear moment before I fled my house: standing in my bedroom, trying to choose which pair of earrings to take with me – a gold pair of hoops my sisters had gifted me for my 30th, or a pair of handmade abalone shell earrings that a Native American woman had given me after reporting on her community.

I told myself, out loud: "Only take what you need. What do you need?" And I realised in a moment of clarity, whilst I was frantically scanning all of my favourite clothes, shoes, and jewellery, that I really didn't need any of it.

I grabbed my grandmother's ring, passports, birth certificates, and left everything else to burn.

Trump avoids prison or fine in hush-money case sentencing

Getty Images Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually on a computer desktop screen from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case. Trump has his finger pointing at the camera, with US flags positioned behind him and Blanche.Getty Images
Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case.

A judge has sentenced US President-elect Donald Trump to an "unconditional discharge," bringing to an end the first criminal trial of a former US president.

The sentence in the hush-money payment case means the incoming president has been spared any penalty, including jail time or a fine, but he will still take office as the first US president with a felony conviction.

"Never before has this court been presented with such a unique and remarkable set of circumstances," Justice Juan Merchan said shortly before announcing the sentence, calling it a "truly extraordinary case".

Appearing via video call from Florida and flanked by his attorney and two prominent American flags, Trump declared he was "totally innocent".

It was the first time in this year-and-half long legal saga that Trump had uttered more than a "not guilty" or given a brief affirmative answer.

Granted the chance to speak ahead of his sentencing, Trump railed against the case for several minutes.

"This has been a very terrible experience," he said.

He claimed there had been a "weaponisation" of the judicial system and claimed the case was brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for political reasons.

"I would like to explain that I was treated very, very unfairly, and I thank you very much," he said, before falling silent.

As Bragg watched Trump address him directly for the first time, he maintained a mostly stoic expression. He did, however, chuckle when Trump claimed Bragg had never wanted to bring the case.

After Trump had his say, Justice Merchan then took several moments to reflect on the "paradox" of the trial.

Justice Merchan noted that despite the media and political circus outside, "once the courtroom doors were closed, it was no more unique than all the other cases taking place at the same time".

But he added that after Trump was convicted, the case took another turn when the American people elected him in November to a second presidential term.

After careful consideration, he had determined that "the only lawful sentence, without encroaching upon the highest office of the land", was unconditional discharge - a sentence that would allow the American people a president unencumbered by pending court proceedings.

Getty Images One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.Getty Images
One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.

The end of a historic trial

Trump was found guilty by a New York jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in May 2024. His sentencing was delayed multiple times due to Supreme Court rulings and the November presidential election.

The charges stemmed from a plot to cover up a hush-money payment to an adult film star in the waning days of the 2016 election. Prosecutors argued the payment was a form of election interference aimed at keeping vital information from voters, and therefore broke the law.

In October 2016, Trump's then-attorney, Michael Cohen, paid a woman named Stormy Daniels $130,000 (£106,000) to remain silent about a years-old alleged sexual encounter with the soon-to-be president.

After he was elected, Trump reimbursed Cohen in installments – and then falsely recorded them as legal expenses. Each of Trump's guilty verdicts correlates to a false document related to the cover-up.

Trump pleaded not guilty to the charges and denied the sexual encounter with Ms Daniels. He repeatedly claimed the case was politically motivated persecution.

The six-week trial became a legal, political and media firestorm. Larger-than-life characters like Cohen and Daniels took the stand to face questioning from Trump's attorneys.

Trump brought a string of family members and Republican allies to court with him each day to fill the benches behind his defence table. Each day, he turned a small media pen in the hallway outside the courtroom into his personal pulpit, using the opportunities to rail against the justice system, the press, and other adversaries.

Trump also used the furore of the trial to raise millions from supporters for his legal battles, and his campaign to retake the White House.

In the four years between his terms in office, Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases, including his New York case. In the end, this was the only one to go to trial.

On the campaign trail and social media, Trump used his legal quagmires to portray himself – and his supporters – as victims of a rigged justice system.

Despite the multiple indictments, including two that centred on his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Trump decisively defeated Vice-President Kamala Harris in November.

His victory quashed the two federal prosecutions against him, including his federal election interference case and one involving alleged mishandling of classified documents. The third, an election interference case in Fulton County, Georgia, has been stuck in a series of delays and side dramas for months.

Only Trump's hush-money trial ever reached its conclusion, after Justice Merchan dug his heels in early January and demanded Trump appear virtually or in person for his sentencing.

The battles did not stop there, however. Trump's lawyers frantically filed appeals and even petitioned the US Supreme Court to halt the Friday hearing.

The Supreme Court rejected him in a brief order issued Thursday night.

They also fought to have the case dismissed by arguing that presidents-elect have immunity from criminal prosecution, an argument Justice Merchan rejected but they have continued to argue to higher courts.

When Trump's New York trial adjourned with a final bang of the gavel on Friday, it also brought to a close this particularly fraught chapter in his personal and political history.

When he is sworn in 10 days from now, he will do so as the first US president to have ever been convicted of a felony.

As he concluded his sentencing on Friday, Justice Merchan had one final message for Trump.

"I wish you Godspeed as you assume your second term in office," he said.

Faisal Islam: Mortgage rates are not rising yet but Reeves has to act

Getty Images A row of terraced houses with chimneys on a frosty winter's day.Getty Images

It has not been a good week for Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Government borrowing costs have hit their highest level in 16 years and the pound has fallen to a 14-month low against the dollar.

She has gone on a planned trip to China amid accusations from opposition parties that she is leaving at a moment of economic peril.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is accompanying her on the trip. The 12-hour flight to Beijing is probably the length of the meeting she might have wanted to have with him.

So how serious are the recent movements on the markets and what could happen as a result?

Budget plans need to be tweaked

While the markets stabilised from Thursday lunchtime, the move against UK government debt is already enough to cause a problem for the chancellor's Budget maths.

Reeves has pledged not to borrow to fund day-to-day spending and to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament. The Treasury has said these fiscal rules, set out in the Budget, are "non-negotiable".

At times over the past week the markets have looked pretty fragile for Britain, with both government borrowing costs going up and sterling falling back at the same time. That is a key marker.

While it's true that the overall direction for the markets over the past month has been set by an assessment of the inflationary consequences of President-elect Trump's trade and economic policies, the UK has been getting some special attention in addition.

It risks being tarred with both the inflationary stickiness of the US, and the stagnant growth of the eurozone - the worst of both worlds.

Line chart showing 10-year UK government bond yields, from 2004 to January 2025. The yield was 4.9% on 2 January 2004, and rose to a peak of 5.5% in July 2007. It then gradually fell to a low of 0.1% in August 2020, before starting to climb again. On 10 January 2025, it hit 4.8%, the highest level since 2008.

That said, it is important to be precise about the extent of the problem. The extra cost of servicing the national debt at these interest rates would be several billion pounds a year - i.e. material enough to require some sort of correction in the Budget maths, but doable, and the clear message this week is that "it will be done".

No impact on mortgages so far

The impact on budgetary maths is real, but the wider impact that might be expected - of higher borrowing costs for companies and for households - has not yet materialised.

The mortgage market has yet to see an increase in rates for fixed-term mortgages, as occurred rapidly in the panic after the 2022 mini-Budget. There is a curious calm.

One explanation lies in what is not happening. This time last year the major lenders greatly discounted mortgages in a battle for market share ahead of the key moments for house buying. This has not happened this year, and may yet have a consequence in the property market.

The Bank of England has indicated it will continue with interest rate cuts this year. The markets think there may be far fewer than previously expected, perhaps only one, leaving base interest rates at 4.5%.

Many economists say this is the wrong call, and believe rates will be cut multiple times. There's quite a lot of uncertainty here, and the key Bank of England committee is split. The Bank's words will be very carefully watched.

More positively for the economy, despite a lot of rhetoric from retailers, many have delivered strong results and have not lowered their profits expectations. Are consumers a bit more robust than had been assumed, and could this drive some growth in 2025?

Growth strategy needs a reboot

The problem of servicing higher interest payments on the national debt increases the likelihood of the Treasury making plans for an adjustment, based on a squeeze on spending. A £10bn cut will hurt, but with a majority of 170 MPs in the House of Commons, and an ongoing spending review already in train, it can be done.

In these circumstances, with the credible threat of a global trade war, for example, it should be noted that Rachel Reeves' new fiscal rules do have an escape hatch.

In the event of "an emergency of a significant negative economic shock to the economy" the chancellor may "temporarily suspend the fiscal mandate".

While a global trade war could qualify, it would be difficult optics to suspend a "non-negotiable" and "iron-clad" set of rules before they had really bitten. The rules have not yet formally passed into law yet either, and remain a "draft" until the Commons votes to approve them.

It seems very unlikely that this route will be taken unless there is a very clear economic shock in the coming weeks.

The bigger point here is what matters in the markets, which is whether the UK is pursuing a credible set of policies, a convincing overall strategy.

Labour's focus on stability at all costs was understandable after the humiliation of Liz Truss's mini-Budget. But "stability" is not a growth strategy.

Pursuing green growth by borrowing for long-term capital investment is a potential strategy, and it underpinned "Bidenomics" in the US. The incoming government embraced the rhetoric of US policy under the outgoing president, without the same firepower. "Bidenomics without the money", you might say.

But now the new Trump administration is jettisoning this approach, rightly or wrongly, and the markets are less convinced that such a strategy will pay for itself. It will cost more to fund such a strategy, and require harsher trade-offs than expected.

Bidenomics without the money and without Biden is much too thin. A more detailed strategy for sustained growth is needed, and in short order.

Oldham abuse survivors criticise government over inquiry decision

BBC A blurred image of a woman with red hair wearing a black jumper in front of a man.BBC
The women want the prime minster to listen to their stories

The BBC has changed the names of the women in this article in order to protect their identity.

Three women who were left devastated by historical child sexual exploitation in Oldham have told the BBC ministers should have spoken to survivors before deciding not to conduct a government-led inquiry into grooming gangs in the town.

Jane and Amelia, who survived abuse more than 15 years ago, and Sarah, whose son was exploited in the town while he was in care, called on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to meet them and hear their stories.

Ministers rejected Oldham Council's request to conduct an inquiry, saying the council should lead it.

A government spokesperson said it would "always be guided" by survivors and that Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips would continue to engage with victims.

But they added "many victims have said they do not want to see another national inquiry - they want action now".

Jane and Amelia said they would like to see a full national inquiry, because they feel it is important to cover the experiences of survivors across the country.

Sarah, whose son was abused in his teens and died more than 10 years later, would have liked a government-led inquiry into abuse in Oldham, but would accept a local one if it is properly funded.

"This isn't for anyone's political gain. This is about real human beings," Amelia said.

The government has resisted calls from the Conservatives and Reform for a new national inquiry, saying that implementing recommendations from a 2022 report conducted by Prof Alexis Jay into child sexual abuse is its priority.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said a new national inquiry would help focus on grooming gangs, where the Jay report did not.

Billionaire Elon Musk has criticised the UK government over its response to grooming gangs on his social media platform X.

Amelia said that, even though she did not agree with many of Musk's beliefs, she was "glad" he had highlighted the issue.

Last weekend, Phillips and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed the council had started its own inquiry.

The Greater Manchester authority also undertook an independent review into sex abuse in Oldham in 2022, and found victims had been failed by the council and Greater Manchester Police.

Ministers have suggested they are keeping an open mind about a future national investigation if it becomes clear that survivors want one.

Jane was 12 when she moved to Oldham. She made friends with a girl older than her who introduced her to a man in his late forties.

"He started coming round, buying me phones, telling me not tell my parents," she said, "then he started introducing me to his friends."

Now more than a decade later, Jane struggles to recall in detail the number of men involved - but says for six years she was abused by a British-Pakistani grooming gang.

"There was one specific incident when I was plied with alcohol, plied with drugs, and I could not move. There were a group of men coming in and out of the room, I think there must have been four or five, basically raping me."

Jane told her mum, the police, the council and her social worker about what was going on.

"At one point, when the police had turned up, there was an illegal immigrant with me and they came and arrested me for prostitution," she said.

Jane left Oldham several years later.

"After a certain amount of time you lose respect for yourself and it becomes a normality," Jane said, fighting back tears.

"When you are a child, you don't really understand, but when you get older and you look back, I felt like it was me against the world."

As far as Jane knows, none of the men who abused her have been jailed.

Amelia was still at school when she was trafficked across the country for sex with multiple men a night.

The people who took her were white British, but she said those who abused her were from every background, race and class.

"There isn't just one narrative - the Pakistani grooming gangs," she said. "It is not anything to do with nationality or race."

Her experience was not reflected in Oldham's 2022 review on grooming. She strongly feels more work needs to be done to increase awareness of the sexual exploitation of minors.

Amelia described the impact grooming has had on her life. Her children have been taken into care, she has struggled to maintain relationships and has been in and out of psychiatric support.

"I don't even class myself as a human being anymore," she said. "I'm damaged goods, I'm broken."

She has also echoed Jane and Sarah's desire to meet the government on this issue.

"I'd love the opportunity to speak to those senior people who are making decisions on our lives, to meet or speak to them personally," she said.

A blurred image of a woman with blonde hair wearing black sat down on a sofa, with a chair in front of her.
All the women have been greatly impacted by their stories

Sarah's 13-year-old son reported being sexually abused while he was a looked-after child in Oldham in the 2000s.

"He'd gone locally into a business where it was easy to buy cigarettes and alcohol and that is where the grooming started," she said.

Her son was told he had to pay for the items by doing what the British-Pakistani owner wanted. She added the care home knew about the arrangement but did not question it.

"It totally destroyed him," she said. "He just wasn't the child he was to start with. He was a shadow of his former self."

In 2021, Sarah says he was going through the process of reporting the abuse to police but had a cardiac arrest and died.

"I feel like I let him down in his life and I don't think it's right I don't get justice for him just because he's not here," she said. "He is just as important as every other victim."

Councillor Arooj Shah, leader of Oldham Council, said the new local independent inquiry will build on the findings of the Greater Manchester review.

"We're working closely with survivors and survivors' families to ensure they don't just have a voice, but will have a central role in developing this inquiry. We expect terms of reference to be agreed in the coming months," Shah said.

Greater Manchester Police Assistant Chief Constable Steph Parker said "we absolutely recognise the lifelong impact of child sexual exploitation, which is why we are so committed to protecting victims and pursuing offenders. This is a tragic example that demonstrates the devastating trauma that comes with such horrific abuse."

Parker said child protection "is the priority" for the force today, with several ongoing.

"We have several ongoing victim-focused, non-recent CSE investigations being led by specialist investigators, which have led to over 100 arrests. Time is no barrier to action."

  • If you have been affected by the issues raised in this article, help and support is available via BBC Action Line.

Gaza war death toll could be significantly higher, researchers say

Reuters Mourners crouched with the covered body of a Palestinian killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza (03/01/25)Reuters

The Palestinian death toll from the war in Gaza could be substantially higher than official figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, research published in the Lancet medical journal suggests.

The UK-led study covered the first nine months of the war, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on 7 October 2023.

It used data from the ministry, an online survey of relatives reporting fatalities, and obituaries. It estimated that up until 30 June 2024, 64,260 Palestinians died from traumatic injury, meaning an under-reporting of deaths by 41%.

The Palestinian death toll has been a source of dispute, though the UN treats the health ministry's figures as reliable.

The ministry's figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians though a recent report by the UN said the majority of verified victims over a six month period were women and children.

Israel says Hamas's figures cannot be trusted. In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists", though it is unclear how it arrived at this figure. The IDF insists it only targets combatants and tries to avoid or minimise civilian casualties.

Israel is not allowing international journalists from media organisations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making it difficult to verify the facts on the ground.

The team behind the latest study used a statistical method called "capture-recapture", a technique which has been used to evaluate deaths in other conflicts.

Researchers looked at how many people turned up repeatedly in different attempts to count deaths. The level of overlap between those lists suggested that the number of deaths directly caused by traumatic injury in the conflict could be significantly higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health.

Gaza's health ministry issues updated death tolls from the war daily. It compiles the figures from deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members, and deaths from "reliable media reports".

The report in the Lancet estimated a death toll between 55,298–78,525 people, compared to 37,877 reported by the health ministry.

The report's figures could be meaningfully higher or lower depending on the technical details of the analysis.

For example, identifying deaths by "traumatic injury" in each set of data could be tricky. Getting it wrong could push the study's estimates higher or lower.

The research also said 59% of those killed for whom data on sex and age was available were women, children and the elderly.

The war in Gaza was triggered by Hamas's attack in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken back to Gaza as hostages. Israel launched a massive military offensive on Gaza in response.

The health ministry says 46,006 people, most of them civilians, have been killed by the Israeli campaign.

Another icy night for UK - but end of cold snap on horizon

PA Media A 4x4 makes its way through a snow-covered road in Scotton, Harrogate, North YorkshirePA Media
A 4x4 makes its way through a snow covered road in Harrogate, North Yorkshire

Commuters are being warned of icy roads and travel disruption, as temperatures plummeted again overnight across the UK.

Fresh weather warnings have been issued, with snow, ice and fog forecast across southern England, Wales, Northern Ireland and northern Scotland on Thursday.

It will be mainly dry elsewhere with winter sunshine, but temperatures could fall again to as low as -16C on Thursday night.

The cold snap has already brought heavy snowfall to some areas, and dozens of flood alerts and warnings are in place due to either heavy rain or melting snow.

On Wednesday the lowest temperature recorded was -8.4C (16F) in Shap, Cumbria, according to the Met Office.

It comes as an amber cold health alert remains in place for all of England until Sunday, meaning the forecast weather is expected to have significant impacts across health - including a rise in deaths.

The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher A sheep in Huddersfield in snow The Hills/BBC Weather Watcher
A sheep walks in snow in Huddersfield

The Met Office says travel disruption to road and rail services is likely on Thursday in areas covered by warnings, as well potential for accidents in icy places.

There are five warnings in place:

  • A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday
  • A yellow warning for ice has been issued until 10:30 across southern England and south-east Wales
  • Two yellow warnings for snow and ice are in force until 11:00 GMT - one across western Wales and north-west England, and south-west England; and another for Northern Ireland
  • A yellow warning for fog until 09:00 in Northern Ireland
Sue B/BBC Weather Watchers A snow sculpture in a garden in LeedsSue B/BBC Weather Watchers
A teenager made a snow sculpture of Venus in her garden in Leeds

On Wednesday snow caused some roads to close and motorists to be stationary for "long periods of time" in Devon and Cornwall, according to authorities there.

Gritters working into Thursday morning have been fitted with ploughs to clear routes in the area.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

"Cold conditions will last until at least the weekend, so we urge drivers to remain vigilant of the risks posed by ice and, in some locations, snow," said RAC breakdown spokeswoman Alice Simpson.

National Rail have also advised passengers to check before they travel, as ice and snow can mean speed restrictions and line closures.

On Wednesday evening, poor weather was affecting Northern and Great Western Railway.

Buses are also replacing trains between Llandudno Junction and Blaenau Ffestiniog until Monday.

Reuters An car covered in snow in Buxton Reuters
A car covered in snow on a road in Buxton, Derbyshire

The wintry conditions have caused significant disruption across the UK since snow swept many parts of the country at the weekend.

Hundreds of schools were closed in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, including schools in Yorkshire, Merseyside, the Midlands and Aberdeenshire.

The country has also been hit by widespread flooding in recent days. Currently there are 68 flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected - in England and three in Wales.

The weather is expected to be less cold over the weekend.

Fact-checking criticism of California officials over fires

Getty Images Donald Trump speaking at a conference. He is wearing a suit and tie, with his left arm raised.  Getty Images

The wildfires raging in Los Angeles have led to claims that officials there have mismanaged the city's preparation for such events.

President-elect Donald Trump has pointed the finger of blame at California Governor Gavin Newsom, who he says is responsible for LA's struggling water supply.

Others have blamed LA Mayor Karen Bass for cutting the city's fire department budget.

BBC Verify looked into the facts behind the political fallout.

What has Trump claimed?

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said Governor Newsom "refused to sign the water restoration declaration put before him that would have allowed millions of gallons of water" to put out the fires.

But the specific declaration he mentions doesn't appear to exist.

The governor's press office issued a statement in response, saying: "There is no such document as the water restoration declaration – that is pure fiction."

We've also searched for this document and been unable to find it.

Newsom has previously opposed efforts to redirect more water to southern California.

This includes a 2020 presidential memorandum in which Trump sought to divert water away from Northern California to farmland further south.

Newsom opposed this at the time, saying he wanted to protect "highly imperilled fish species close to extinction".

That is what Trump is referencing in his post blaming Newsom for the response to the wildfires, where he says the governor "wanted to protect an essentially worthless fish", Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has confirmed.

California's attorney general ultimately blocked the measure, citing potential harm to endangered species and saying that it was not scientifically justified.

Experts say this decision isn't impacting the efforts to tackle these wildfires.

"California is not experiencing water supply shortages at the moment, not in southern California or elsewhere," says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources.

"There is plenty of water in the reservoirs for firefighting or whatever you want to do with it," he adds.

Although southern California is currently experiencing a drought, data shows its reservoirs are almost all currently above the historic average for this time of the year. None are at significantly low levels.

Getty Images Wildfires in LA. A swimming pool is seen in the foreground as flames surround the forest behind it. Getty Images

Is there is 'no water for fire hydrants'?

Trump has also said that there was "no water for fire hydrants".

There have been reports that certain fire hydrants have run dry.

This is down to high demand placing a heavy strain on the system, according to local officials and experts.

In Pasadena, Fire Chief Chad Augustin said the area experienced a short period of time where pressure was low on a small amount of hydrants. All issues had been resolved, he added.

"There are very localised incidents of this unfolding where the fire hydrants have had insufficient water pressure for firefighters to use them, but that's not because LA is running out of water," says Mr Swain.

"There are thousands of firefighters and hundred of fire engines drawing upon water, and ultimately only so much can flow through pipes at a time."

Did LA Mayor cut fire department budget?

LA Mayor Karen Bass has faced criticism over cuts to the city's fire department budget.

For the latest financial year, the LA Fire Department (LAFD) budget was reduced by $17.6m (£14.3m).

In a memo to Mayor Bass last month, LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley warned that the cuts had "severely limited the department's capacity to prepare for, train for, and respond to large-scale emergencies, such as wildfires".

Mayor Bass responded to the criticism, saying: "I think if you go back and look at the reductions that were made, there were no reductions that were made that would have impacted the situation that we were dealing with over the last couple of days."

The LAFD has an overall budget of almost $820m (£670m), and it isn't the only department responding to the fires.

For example, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and the Los Angeles County Fire Department are part of the relief efforts, along with the federal government.

"LA County has some of the most advanced and sophisticated wildfire fighting resources of any location in the world. If you had to chose one place on earth that was best place to tackle this sort of disaster, it would be LA county," says Mr Swain.

"The disaster isn't as bad as it is because there's a lack of resource, the reality is there's a limit to how effective wildland firefighting can be under extreme conditions like we experienced this week."

Additional reporting by Joshua Cheetham.

BBC Verify logo

LA celebrities lose homes, share reactions to wildfires

Getty Images A small plane dropping water over mansions in a densely populated area, as smoke fills the area behind themGetty Images

The affluent Los Angeles neighbourhood of Pacific Palisades typically has strangers walking around, trying to catch a glimpse of celebrities' houses.

Now, though, its streets are filled with firefighters battling a 3,000-acre wildfire that is ravaging the area.

Across the city, more than 30,000 have been forced to evacuate their homes as winds stoke three fires. A state of emergency has been declared, leaving roads gridlocked as people flee.

Among them, a number of famous faces have been forced to flee their usually idyllic California homes, including Star Wars' Mark Hamill and Schitt's Creek actor Eugene Levy.

James Woods, who has starred in films including Nixon and Casino, described evacuating his home on social media, and said he was not sure if it was still standing.

"It feels like losing a loved one," he wrote.

Pacific Palisades is known for being exclusive, with a house costing $4.5m (£3.6m) on average as of November 2024, according to Realtor.com.

The north LA neighbourhood is bordered on the south with a three-mile (4.8km) stretch of beaches on the Pacific Ocean, nestled between Malibu and Santa Monica.

It is a hub for trendy shops, cafes and a farmers' market.

But the Palisades fire - which grew from 10 acres to over 2,900 in a matter of hours - has shattered they area's idyllic nature.

Mark Hamill, of Star Wars fame, called the blaze the "most horrific fire since '93" - which burned 18,000 acres and destroyed 323 homes in nearby Malibu - in a post on Instagram.

He said he evacuated his home in Malibu "so last-minute there [were] small fires on both sides of the road".

Levy, who rose to fame for his role in film series American Pie, told local media he was forced to evacuate his home.

"The smoke looked pretty black and intense over Temescal Canyon. I couldn't see any flames but the smoke was very dark," he recounted to the Los Angeles Times.

Reality star's Spencer Pratt and Heidi Montag lost their family home in the fire, his sister wrote on Instagram.

"I am beyond heartbroken for my brother, Heidi and the kids," she said. "Even the fire station in the Palisades has burned down."

Miles Teller, best known for his role in Top Gun: Maverick, and his wife Keleigh, also live in the area.

Posting on Instagram, Mrs Teller shared a picture of the fires and a heart-break emoji. She urged people to leave bowls of water for animals as they evacuate their homes.

Meanwhile, Actor Steve Guttenberg, known for Police Academy, stayed to help firefighters by moving cars in order to make room for incoming fire trucks.

He urged residents to leave the keys to their abandoned cars so they could be moved out the way of firefighters.

"We really need people to move their cars," he told news outlet KTLA: "This is not a parking lot."

Getty Images The Getty Villa sign on top of a wall, with bright orange fire right behind itGetty Images

It is not just famous residents affected by the wildfire - notable buildings in the area are under threat as well.

The Palisades Charter High School - which has served as a set for movies and counts several notable people as former students - has been damaged by fire, local media reports.

The fire-stricken school has been used in films including 1976 horror classic Carrie and Project X, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Former students include director JJ Abrams, musician Will.i.am, and actors Forest Whitaker and Katey Sagal.

The Getty Villa is an art museum in the Palisades that has a large collection of artworks and artefacts, including works by Vincent van Gogh and Claude Monet.

The museum confirmed on Tuesday that it had closed to the public and that some trees and vegetation on site had burned - but said that "no structures are on fire, and staff and the collection remain safe".

Star studded events due to take place in the area have also been cancelled.

Film premiers for Unstoppable, Better Man and Wolfman have been called off, as has the Screen Actors Guild Awards live nominations event.

英财相无视反对执意访华  彭定康:向中国下跪也难救英国经济

英国财相里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)访华前夕,连日来有议员要求她取消行程,以回应港府悬红通缉居英港人及处理国内经济危机。前香港总督彭定康(Lord Chris Patten)更断言里夫斯此行不会有任何收获,直指向中国“下跪”也难以拯救英国经济。而被悬红通缉的在英港人及人权组织则呼吁里夫斯就人权问题向中方交涉,不应牺牲人权换取经济利益。

过去几天,英国国会相继就港府在平安夜悬红通缉多名居英港人,以及国内经济动荡进行紧急辩论。各在野政党的议员都要求财政大臣里夫斯取消访华行程,以留在英国专注处理近日英镑暴跌、政府借贷成本飙升的经济危机。

不过,里夫斯仍如期动身,预计会在周末访问北京和上海。英伦银行行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)及汇丰控股主席杜嘉祺(Mark Tucker)预料也会随团,商讨加强英中两国的经贸合作。

彭定康:英国贬低自己使我苦恼

前香港总督彭定康在英国第四台(Channel 4)周四(1月9日)发布的报道中断言,里夫斯此行不能扭转国内经济形势。他引述数据指出,中国对英国的直接投资(FDI)只占整体总额的0.2%,无法拯救英国经济:“使我苦恼的不单是我们的行为有多贬低自己,而是我们和中国交手时,没有任何向其‘下跪‘的证据基础。你不应准备好埋葬你原本相信的东西。”

彭定康批评英国国内不少人妄想向中国出口更多商品、引入更多中国投资,就必须向北京下跪、跟从其政治取向,甚至无视香港传媒大亨黎智英被囚禁,以及北京对在英港人的监控等。他认为,若英国只能在会议纪录中低调提出这些问题就当已经捍卫了自身价值,“那就只能求主保佑我们了” (then God help us all)。

前香港总督彭定康表示,里夫斯此行不能扭转英国国内经济形势。
前香港总督彭定康表示,里夫斯此行不能扭转英国国内经济形势。
(记者石头拍摄/RFA资料图片)

被通缉港人:英国对中国有不切实际的遐想

海外港人组织“香港民主委员会”(HKDC) 国际倡议与项目高级干事刘珈汶是最新被港府列入悬红通缉名单的在英港人之一。她接受本台访问,同样无法理解为何英国政府未能掌握中国最新的政经形势。

刘珈汶说:“英国或其他对中国友善的国家对中国的经济是有一个遐想,而这遐想我觉得是不切实际。他们会觉得,我们有经济问题,就要和一些经济大国或物理上的大国有更紧密的合作。但华语圈的朋友都会留意到,中国国内经济下滑,中国内部政治状况,甚至共产党内的纷争、斗争,或一些潜在的对习近平的危机,其实已经慢慢浮现。”

她提到,英国外相拉米(David Lammy)和外交部政务次官韦斯特(Catherine West)去年已相继访问中港,英国高层频繁访华,向世界展示两国想恢复友好关系的姿态,甚至有意重建“小黄金时代”,是受压迫的在英港人所不乐见的。

倡议组织促财相勿牺牲人权换经济利益

刘珈汶呼吁里夫斯访华期间捍卫人权与民主,以人权问题为先,不应牺牲人权换取经济利益;并应争取释放香港政治犯、制裁侵犯人权的港官、撤销香港驻伦敦经贸办的外交特权,及阻止中国在伦敦兴建“超级大使馆”等。

本台记者翻查资料,过去半年,每次英中高层会面后,英方都会发声明,强调有向北京提到人权问题,却至今不见实际行动。刘珈汶呼吁英国政府不要“只说不做”。她认为,制裁港官及检视香港经贸办的地位是英国政府和中国建立关系同时,最简单直接可采取的行动。

刘珈汶说:“我们一直期望有一些果断行为,显示英国有心向中国和香港人权侵犯者问责。我们当然不会觉得他们出一个声明,或在一个‘清喉咙‘的场合上像剔除清单事项般说说就当做了。这使很多英国香港人非常失望,及对英国政府慢慢地失去信心。”

国际特赦组织也发表声明,呼吁里夫斯利用访华之行挑战北京对人权的“残酷镇压”。国际特赦组织英国外交政策顾问特拉斯科特(Polly Truscott)强调,在与中国达成任何经济、安全或其他协议时,必须以尊重人权为核心。该组织呼吁里夫斯直接提出针对在英倡议者的跨国镇压问题,并呼吁释放黎智英等被囚港人。

责编:何平 网编:洪伟

© 路透社图片

图为英国财政大臣里夫斯。里夫斯将在周末访华。

As Wildfire Flames Consume Architectural Gems, a Hit to ‘Old California’

The historic ranch house of Will Rogers and an important residence by Ray Kappe were destroyed by the fires, which threaten L.A.’s spectacular design legacy.

© California State Parks

Charred remains of the Will Rogers historic Ranch House in Pacific Palisades, which dated from 1926. The beloved comedian and Hollywood cowboy hosted Walt Disney, along with Clark Gable and Charles Lindbergh.

劳工通讯 | 追责工时违法:昆明闻泰工人每月至少加班120小时 (二)

最近,我对劳工通讯栏目调查报道中国各类企业违法侵害工人权益事件,做了一些回顾和梳理。我发现,在中国,企业的许多违法侵害工人权益行为,并不会受到质疑和追究。工时违法便是其中之一。

劳动法第三十六条规定:

国家实行劳动者每日工作时间不超过八小时、平均每周工作时间不超过四十四小时的工时制度。国家实行每日工作时间不超过八小时、每周工作时间不超过四十四小时工时制度。

劳动法第四十一条规定:用人单位由于生产经营需要,经与工会和劳动者协商后可以延长工作时间,一般每日不得超过一小时;因特殊原因需要延长工作时间的,在保障劳动者身体健康的条件下延长工作时间每日不得超过三小时,但是每月不得超过三十六小时。

劳动法的立法原意很清楚,立法限制加班时数的主要目的之一,就是为了保障职工的身体健康。

但是,在中国,无论在沿海发达省份,还是在内陆欠发达地区,工人却都得靠牺牲健康超时加班,才能挣到够养家生活的工资。

今后,劳工通讯栏目将从一些大型企业入手,对工时违法展开问责。

昆明闻泰工时违法

今次关注的是云南省重点项目,被云南省总工会授予五一劳动奖状的昆明闻泰工时违法问题。这家企业工人每天工作12个小时,每周最多休息一天,每月加班最少120小时:

昆明闻泰母公司闻泰科技是上交所上市公司,《财富》中国500强第292位。2024年前三季总营业收入高达531亿元。

2022年,昆明闻泰招不到工人,昆明市劳动就业服务局曾组建工作专班,通过线上线下推进州市招聘一体联动等“链式服务”,在不到1个月内便为昆明闻泰招来七千多工人。当地政府对这家企业的重视程度,由此可见一斑。

而就在同一年,共青团昆明市委还授予昆明闻泰“昆明青年五四奖章”。

2023年春节前,1月17日,昆明高新区还专程到昆明闻泰搞“新春走企业·送福送温暖活动”,并请了八位知名书法家现场赠送“福”字和新春对联,营造了欢乐祥和的节日氛围。高新区党工委专职副书记李兴荣特别提到,2022年度昆明闻泰荣登云南省非公企业百强榜单第二名,逐步形成了以闻泰昆明为核心的智能终端全产业链。

不过,昆明市总工会在就此次活动的报道中,对于昆明闻泰工人权益的保障,却只字未提。

2024年7月23日,云南省鲁甸县融媒体专门为昆明闻泰推送的一篇招工信息,题目是“快快看过来→昆明闻泰通讯有限公司招人啦!”。这则招工信息中白纸黑字写明:

(一)工作时间

白班工作时间8:00-20:00,夜班工作时间20:00-08:00,月休4天,每周天休息,具体工作时间随部门班次调整,一般一个月倒班一次。

这篇招聘信息最后面,居然是这么一幅画面,令我不知所措:

招聘信息内容
招聘信息内容
(韩东方提供)

三个月后,2024年10月28日,云南省曲靖市人社局官网发布一则招聘信息,其中昆明闻泰的招聘待遇一栏写着:

底薪1999元(含100元全勤)+岗位工资+加班费(按1900元核算,平时加班1.5倍,周六日加班2倍,节假日加班3倍)+工龄奖(每满一个月增加100元,300元封顶)+餐补20元/天+夜班补贴20元/天,综合收入(4000-5500)元。

也就是,底薪1999元减去100元全勤,法定工时内工资仅有1899元,低于当地2023年最低工资标准。

而就在2024年8月23日,也就是曲靖市人社局发布这条招聘信息前两个多月,云南省便宣布调整最低工资标准,昆明闻泰所在地昆明市呈贡区的最低工资标准,将从10月1日起由1990元/月提高到2070元/月。

回头再看鲁甸县融媒体招聘信息后面挂着的“社会主义核心价值”标签,我不知道说什么好。

更不可思议的是,昆明闻泰长期严重违反劳动法安排工人超时加班,却被工人的“娘家人“云南省总工会授予“云南省五一劳动奖状”荣誉。

听众们应该记得,在劳工通讯栏目里,每当跟人社局和总工会工作人员提到企业违法安排工人超长时间加班问题时,对方的经典回答:工人自己愿意多加班!

听众朋友,请点击本页面的音频链接,收听我就昆明闻泰工时违法问题与当地总工会和人社局工作人员的谈话。

一则好消息

另外,这里跟大家分享一则也算是好消息的信息:

去年12月7日劳工通讯栏目播出,我就深圳市宝安区“德昌电机”涉嫌工时违法问题,与宝安区人社局工作人员的谈话。今年元旦过后,1月3日,宝安区人社局打电话给我,告知人社局已向“德昌电机”发出“劳动监察违法事项督促整改通知书”。随后,宝安区人社局以电邮方式给我发来一份“处理意见书”,以及“劳动监察违法事项督促整改通知书”图片。

宝安区人社局以电邮方式给我发来一份“处理意见书”
宝安区人社局以电邮方式给我发来一份“处理意见书”
(韩东方提供)
劳动监察违法事项督促整改通知书
劳动监察违法事项督促整改通知书
(韩东方提供)

劳工通讯今后将继续就各地企业违法侵犯工人权益行为,对当地人社局和总工会进行问责。也希望,有更多地方的人社部门和总工会,能够像宝安区人社局一样做出回应。

© Gemunu Amarasinghe/RFA

韩东方 (RFA劳工通讯栏目主持人)

💾

美驻日大使离任前批中国为“独裁轴心”

据法新社报道,本周五,即将卸任的美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)在离任前对北京发出严厉批评,他称中国、朝鲜和伊朗是“独裁轴心”,而美国及其盟友是保护民主的“薄蓝线”。

民主党籍的伊曼纽尔在担任驻日大使的3年期间经常对中国提出批评,在周五进一步提出了对印太地区地缘政治的看法。他认为,印太地区是中国的主场、美国的客场,但是,透过与盟友合作,美国能够扳平赛场,发展团结盟友力量便可将中国孤立,阻止北京削弱个别国家主权的企图。

随著美国政府即将在一月底换届,新任总统特朗普已任命企业家乔治·格拉斯(George Glass)接替伊曼纽尔担任驻日大使,格拉斯在特朗普的第一任期中担任美国驻葡萄牙大使,当时他曾对中国持批评态度。

责编:安克; 网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

即将卸任的美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)在离任前对北京发出严厉批评。

US announces $25m reward for arrest of Venezuela's Maduro

BBC 'Breaking' graphicBBC

The US has announced an increased $25m (£20.4m) reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the day he was sworn in for a third six-year term in office.

The inauguration ceremony was overshadowed by recrimination from the international community and Venezuelan opposition leaders.

Rewards have also been offered for information leading to the arrest and or conviction of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello.

A new reward of up to $15m for Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino has also been offered.

The UK also issued sanctions on 15 top Venezuelan officials, including judges, members of the security forces and military officials.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said those sanctioned were responsible for "undermining democracy, the rule of law, and human rights violations".

Foreign Secretary David Lammy went on to describe Maduro's regime as "fraudulent".

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on X to get the latest alerts.

Trump avoids prison or fine in hush-money case sentencing

Getty Images Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually on a computer desktop screen from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case. Trump has his finger pointing at the camera, with US flags positioned behind him and Blanche.Getty Images
Donald Trump and his lawyer Todd Blanche (left) appear virtually from Florida for his sentencing in his Manhattan hush money case.

A judge has sentenced US President-elect Donald Trump to an "unconditional discharge," bringing to an end the first criminal trial of a former US president.

The sentence in the hush-money payment case means the incoming president has been spared any penalty, including jail time or a fine, but he will still take office as the first US president with a felony conviction.

"Never before has this court been presented with such a unique and remarkable set of circumstances," Justice Juan Merchan said shortly before announcing the sentence, calling it a "truly extraordinary case".

Appearing via video call from Florida and flanked by his attorney and two prominent American flags, Trump declared he was "totally innocent".

It was the first time in this year-and-half long legal saga that Trump had uttered more than a "not guilty" or given a brief affirmative answer.

Granted the chance to speak ahead of his sentencing, Trump railed against the case for several minutes.

"This has been a very terrible experience," he said.

He claimed there had been a "weaponisation" of the judicial system and claimed the case was brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for political reasons.

"I would like to explain that I was treated very, very unfairly, and I thank you very much," he said, before falling silent.

As Bragg watched Trump address him directly for the first time, he maintained a mostly stoic expression. He did, however, chuckle when Trump claimed Bragg had never wanted to bring the case.

After Trump had his say, Justice Merchan then took several moments to reflect on the "paradox" of the trial.

Justice Merchan noted that despite the media and political circus outside, "once the courtroom doors were closed, it was no more unique than all the other cases taking place at the same time".

But he added that after Trump was convicted, the case took another turn when the American people elected him in November to a second presidential term.

After careful consideration, he had determined that "the only lawful sentence, without encroaching upon the highest office of the land", was unconditional discharge - a sentence that would allow the American people a president unencumbered by pending court proceedings.

Getty Images One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.Getty Images
One of Trump's attorneys, Emil Bove, attends his sentencing hearing in person.

The end of a historic trial

Trump was found guilty by a New York jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in May 2024. His sentencing was delayed multiple times due to Supreme Court rulings and the November presidential election.

The charges stemmed from a plot to cover up a hush-money payment to an adult film star in the waning days of the 2016 election. Prosecutors argued the payment was a form of election interference aimed at keeping vital information from voters, and therefore broke the law.

In October 2016, Trump's then-attorney, Michael Cohen, paid a woman named Stormy Daniels $130,000 (£106,000) to remain silent about a years-old alleged sexual encounter with the soon-to-be president.

After he was elected, Trump reimbursed Cohen in installments – and then falsely recorded them as legal expenses. Each of Trump's guilty verdicts correlates to a false document related to the cover-up.

Trump pleaded not guilty to the charges and denied the sexual encounter with Ms Daniels. He repeatedly claimed the case was politically motivated persecution.

The six-week trial became a legal, political and media firestorm. Larger-than-life characters like Cohen and Daniels took the stand to face questioning from Trump's attorneys.

Trump brought a string of family members and Republican allies to court with him each day to fill the benches behind his defence table. Each day, he turned a small media pen in the hallway outside the courtroom into his personal pulpit, using the opportunities to rail against the justice system, the press, and other adversaries.

Trump also used the furore of the trial to raise millions from supporters for his legal battles, and his campaign to retake the White House.

In the four years between his terms in office, Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases, including his New York case. In the end, this was the only one to go to trial.

On the campaign trail and social media, Trump used his legal quagmires to portray himself – and his supporters – as victims of a rigged justice system.

Despite the multiple indictments, including two that centred on his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Trump decisively defeated Vice-President Kamala Harris in November.

His victory quashed the two federal prosecutions against him, including his federal election interference case and one involving alleged mishandling of classified documents. The third, an election interference case in Fulton County, Georgia, has been stuck in a series of delays and side dramas for months.

Only Trump's hush-money trial ever reached its conclusion, after Justice Merchan dug his heels in early January and demanded Trump appear virtually or in person for his sentencing.

The battles did not stop there, however. Trump's lawyers frantically filed appeals and even petitioned the US Supreme Court to halt the Friday hearing.

The Supreme Court rejected him in a brief order issued Thursday night.

They also fought to have the case dismissed by arguing that presidents-elect have immunity from criminal prosecution, an argument Justice Merchan rejected but they have continued to argue to higher courts.

When Trump's New York trial adjourned with a final bang of the gavel on Friday, it also brought to a close this particularly fraught chapter in his personal and political history.

When he is sworn in 10 days from now, he will do so as the first US president to have ever been convicted of a felony.

As he concluded his sentencing on Friday, Justice Merchan had one final message for Trump.

"I wish you Godspeed as you assume your second term in office," he said.

Bob Dylan Is Having a Hollywood Moment. His No. 1 Hater Is Ready.

A.J. Weberman sifted through the prophetic singer’s trash in search of meaning. He turned on him as a sellout and has spent decades trying to reclaim him for the counterculture.

© Sabrina Santiago for The New York Times

In the 1960s, A.J. Weberman helped organize smoke-ins, marijuana marches and pranks on establishment figures. Bob Dylan provided much of the soundtrack.
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