Last summer, a woman was arrested at Gatwick Airport after she arrived from Nigeria with a very young baby girl.
The woman had been living in West Yorkshire with her husband and children, and before leaving the UK for Africa had told her GP she was pregnant.
That was not true.
When the woman returned about a month later with the baby, she was arrested on suspicion of trafficking.
The case, the second the BBC has followed through the Family Court in recent months, reveals what experts say is a worrying trend of babies possibly being brought to the UK unlawfully - some from so-called "baby factories" in Nigeria.
'My babies are always hidden'
The woman, who we are calling Susan, is Nigerian, but had been living in England since June 2023, with her husband and children.
A careworker with leave to remain in Britain, Susan claimed she was pregnant. But scans and blood tests showed that wasn't true. Instead, they revealed Susan had a tumour, which doctors feared could be cancerous. But she refused treatment.
Susan insisted her previous pregnancies had been invisible on scans, telling her employer, "my babies are always hidden". She also claimed she'd been pregnant for up to 30 months with her other children.
Susan had travelled to Nigeria in early June 2024, saying she wanted to have her baby there, and then contacted her local hospital in Britain, to say she had given birth.
Doctors were concerned and contacted children's services.
Arriving back in the UK with the baby girl - who we're calling Eleanor - Susan was stopped and arrested by Sussex Police.
She was bailed and the lead police force on this confirmed there is no active investigation at the moment.
After her arrest, Susan, her husband, and Eleanor were given DNA tests. Eleanor was taken to foster carers.
"When the results show that I am Eleanor's mother, I want her to be returned immediately," Susan said.
But the tests showed the baby had no genetic link with Susan or her husband. Susan demanded a second test – which gave the same result, and then she changed her story.
She'd had IVF treatment before moving to Britain in 2023 with a donor egg and sperm, she said, and that's why the DNA tests were negative.
Susan provided a letter from a Nigerian hospital, signed by the medical director, saying she'd given birth there, as well as a document from another clinic about the IVF treatment to back up her claims.
She also provided photos and videos which she said showed her in the Nigerian hospital's labour suite. No face is visible in the images and one showed a naked woman with a placenta between her legs, with an umbilical cord still attached to it.
Alamy
Someone had given birth - it wasn't Susan
The Family Court in Leeds sent Henrietta Coker to investigate.
Ms Coker, who provides expert reports to family courts in cases like this, has nearly 30 years experience as a social worker. She trained in Britain, and worked in front-line child protection in London, before moving to Africa.
Ms Coker visited the medical centre where Susan claimed she'd had IVF. There was no record of Susan having had treatment there - staff told her the letter was forged.
She then visited the place Susan said she'd given birth. It was a shabby, three bedroom flat, with "stained" walls and "dirty" carpets.
There Ms Coker was met by "three young teenage girls sitting in the reception room with nurses' uniforms on".
She asked to speak to the matron and was "ushered into the kitchen where a teenage girl was eating rice".
Ms Coker then tracked down the doctor who'd written a letter saying Susan had given birth there. He said, "Yes, someone had given birth".
Ms Coker showed him a photograph of Susan, but it wasn't her, the doctor said.
"Impersonating people is common in this part of the world," he told Ms Coker, suggesting that Susan might have "bought the baby".
Supplied
Henrietta Coker has decades of experience as a social worker
The practice of "baby farming" is well known in West Africa, Ms Coker later told the court. At least 200 illegal "baby factories" have been shut down by the Nigerian authorities in the last five years, she said.
Some contained young girls who'd been kidnapped, raped, and forced to give birth repeatedly.
"Sometimes these girls are released," Ms Coker said, "other times they die during childbirth, or are murdered and placed in the grounds of the organisation."
It's not clear where baby Eleanor might have come from – though the doctor told Ms Coker he believed she would have been given up voluntarily.
Ms Coker was unable to establish who Eleanor's real parents are.
She gave evidence to the Family Court in Leeds in March this year, along with Susan, her husband, her employer and a senior obstetrician.
At an earlier hearing the judge asked for Susan's phone to be examined. Investigators found messages which Susan had sent to someone saved in her address book as "Mum oft [sic] Lagos Baby".
About four weeks before the alleged date of birth Susan wrote a text message which read:
"Good afternoon ma, I have not seen the hospital items"
The same day, Mum Oft Lagos Babyresponded:
"Delivery drug is 3.4 m
"Hospital bill 170k."
Assuming those sums to be Nigerian Naira, they would be in the region of £1,700 and £85 respectively, the Family Court judge, Recorder William Tyler KC said.
Getty Images
The local authority pointed out the messages were set to "automatic self-destruct mode" – and said they represented evidence of a deal to purchase a baby.
Susan tried to explain the messages in court. The Recorder said her attempts were "difficult to follow and impossible to accept".
Recorder Tyler, sitting as a Deputy Judge of the High Court, found Susan had "staged a scene" which she falsely claimed showed her giving birth to Eleanor in Nigeria.
He said Susan and her husband had put forward a "fundamental lie" to explain how Eleanor came to be in their care, and had tried to mislead authorities with false documents.
They'd both caused the little girl "significant emotional and psychological harm", he said.
In early July, the BBC attended the final hearing in Eleanor's case, held remotely.
In one little square of the Teams meeting we could see Susan and her husband, sitting upright, barely moving, focused closely on what the advocates said.
They wanted Eleanor returned to them. Their barristers said their own children were thriving - they wanted to offer her the same love and care.
Susan's husband saw Eleanor as "a fundamental part of their family unit".
Vikki Horspool, representing the child's guardian, a social worker from the Independent Children and Family Child Advisory Service challenged that. She said that the couple "continued to be dishonest" about Eleanor's real start in life and how she came to be in their care.
The judge ordered that baby Eleanor be placed for adoption, and also made a "declaration of non parentage". He said he was aware of the "pain" this would cause Susan and her husband.
The barrister for the local authority told the court that the baby is "very settled" with her foster carer, taking part in activities in her community, getting medical treatment.
When Eleanor is adopted she will have a new identity and British nationality - but she may never know who her real parents are.
Eleanor's story echoes the case of "Lucy" – who was brought into Manchester Airport in 2023, by a man claiming to be her father.
'Money exchanged for children'
Ms Coker believes its likely more children have been brought unlawfully to the UK from West Africa. She told the BBC she has worked on around a dozen similar cases since the pandemic. In her experience, baby trafficking is commonplace.
"Money is getting exchanged for children on a large scale" she said - not just in Africa but "across the global south".
Since 2021 the UK government has restricted adoptions from Nigeria, partly because of "evidence of organised child trafficking" within the country.
British authorities have been aware of the problem for many years, and there have been several cases in the Family Courts over the last 20 years.
They were told they could not make people undergo DNA testing when they were asking for a visa or passport in support of an application relating to immigration status – and that had been the case since 2014.
Ms Coker said some clinics offer "packages" that include registering the baby's birth. It will cost anywhere between £2,000 and £8,000, excluding any airfare, she said.
She thinks more people in Britain should be aware of this activity.
It is hard to tackle, she said - perhaps DNA testing of newborn babies and purported parents would help.
But she wasn't sure the British government can do much to stop it, she said, "the issues start in countries where the children are born".
Patricia Durr, CEO of the anti-trafficking charity ECPAT said cases like this were particularly "heinous" because they denied a child right to their identity.
She said: "Every effort must be made to prevent these egregious crimes occurring."
A government spokesperson said: "Falsely claiming to be the parent of a child to facilitate entry to the UK is illegal. Those found doing so will face the full force of the law.
"Border Force is committed to protecting individuals who cross the border and where concerns are raised, officers will take action to safeguard individuals who could be at risk."
The BBC contacted the Nigerian High Commission for comment but they did not respond.
If you've been affected by issues raised in this story, there is information and support available on BBC Action Line.
Julie Gallagher sold her house through Connells' Abingdon office, where Panorama went undercover
"She's probably done me out of quite a bit of money - I feel angry and conned."
Julie Gallagher believes her home was sold at a lower price than it could have gone for. There was a buyer who might have offered more for it, an undercover investigation by BBC Panorama can reveal.
Her Connells estate agent appeared to sideline this potential buyer in favour of someone else who had agreed to take out an in-house mortgage.
That mortgage was said to be worth about £2,000 to Connells, while the company potentially stood to make £10,000 in total by arranging add-on services and selling the buyer's property too.
"She sat on this sofa… and said she was actually working for me and she obviously is not, she's working for the company's ends," says Julie. "How dare Connells do that? Just appalling."
Panorama decided to investigate the company after speaking to more than 20 independent financial advisers (IFAs) and mortgage advisers from across England and Wales who had concerns about how the company operated.
One of the biggest estate agencies in the UK, Connells runs 80 chains with more than 1,200 branches. Our undercover reporter, Lucy Vallance, got a job in Abingdon, Oxfordshire, in an own-brand office.
Watch: In Abingdon, a potential buyer taking Connells' in-house services appeared to be favoured over another who wasn't
During her six weeks there in February, she found evidence that the senior branch manager favoured prospective buyers, if they were planning to take out Connells in-house services, like conveyancing or mortgages, because it made more money for the company.
Connells told us it is "committed to treating all customers and prospective buyers fairly."
Panorama also investigated the online estate agency Purplebricks, after we heard concerns it had been trying to attract sellers by overvaluing properties.
Once a customer was signed up, staff then tried to convince them to cut the asking price, earning commission if successful - a former sales negotiator told us. The whistleblower, who worked for the company between June and October 2024, also filmed online meetings for Panorama.
Purplebricks told us price reductions were once a target for rewarding staff, but that is no longer the case, and it does not overvalue properties to win instructions.
'Hot buyers'
In Abingdon, the undercover reporter found that trying to arrange mortgages could be as important as selling houses - and that Connells' staff felt under pressure to get people signed up.
Connells, like many other estate agencies, has an in-house mortgage-brokering team.
The independent financial advisers we have spoken to - who compete for customers with estate agents' in-house services - say this pressure can lead to some agents in the industry playing fast and loose with the rules.
One practice known as "conditional selling" is forbidden by the Code of Practice for Residential Estate Agents, of which many companies across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland - including Connells - are signatories.
This is when an estate agent suggests, implies or tells you that you must arrange things like mortgages or conveyancing services through their in-house teams - or there will be negative consequences for a deal.
It means estate agents signed up to the code know they should not discriminate against prospective buyers who don't use their in-house services.
Connells' senior branch manager told our reporter, at one point, that she understood conditional selling was not allowed.
Estate agents are supposed to work in the best interests of their clients, but we saw how pressure for profit shaped decisions at Connells in Abingdon.
One Saturday, our reporter was asked to host an open-house viewing for Julie's four-bedroom house, which was on the market for offers over £300,000. It attracted great interest. Fifteen people attended and others also wanted to book separate viewings.
But the following Monday, the senior branch manager seemed interested in two possible buyers - those speaking to Connells' in-house brokers. The next day, via WhatsApp, she told her staff not to arrange any more viewings on Julie's house.
One signed up to a Connells-brokered mortgage and became known by the senior branch manager as a "hot buyer".
A board in the office titled "Hot Buyers" had the names of all house hunters at the branch who had agreed to take out a mortgage or a conveyancing package through Connells.
The hot buyer for Julie's house made an initial offer, which she rejected, but eventually upped it to successfully secure the property.
There was another potential buyer interested in the house who appeared to have deeper pockets - a cash buyer. She wasn't taking out a mortgage through the company.
Connells told us they spoke to the cash buyer the Monday after the open house and that she was undecided about putting in an offer. A call from the cash buyer later the same day was missed, said the company, and not followed up.
When the undercover reporter told the office administrator that the cash buyer might have offered more, she was told that "just a sale" was "not good enough" for Connells.
"They will probably more likely aim to get somebody who's signed up with us and wants to use our conveyancing, as opposed to someone who is a cash buyer," said the administrator. "That's just how Connells are. That's why they ride you if you don't have enough mortgage appointments."
Connells' senior branch manager has "taken options out of my hands and probably done me out of quite a bit of money", says Julie Gallagher
Lisa Webb, consumer law expert with Which? Magazine, reviewed Panorama's evidence of how this sale was managed.
"This is absolutely something that should be against the law - and something that I think that these estate agents really ought to be investigated by the authorities for, because this should not be happening," she told us.
The undercover reporter secretly filmed her boss - the senior branch manager - saying why she was so keen on the hot buyer. Not only would it mean collecting fees from the seller, the manager explained, but also commission from the in-house mortgage with conveyancing fees on top.
In addition, Connells would try to sell the hot buyer's old house - and earn more fees.
The senior branch manager said the combined deal could, in total, be worth £10,000 to the company.
"That, in itself, is just appalling behaviour," said Lisa Webb from Which? when we showed her the footage.
Connells says "no harm has been caused" to the customer
According to the 1979 Estate Agents Act it is classed as an "undesirable practice" for estate agents to discriminate against prospective buyers if they don't take out a mortgage through in-house brokers.
If they do this, they can be investigated by Trading Standards. But it looks like the rules may not cover the sidelining of potential buyers as seen by Panorama's undercover reporter.
Those rules need to be updated, according to financial journalist Iona Bain.
"There's clearly a grey area here, whereby estate agents are able to accept one buyer that will use the in-house broker and turn everybody else away," she told us.
Homeowner Julie, who has now packed up and left her house ahead of the sale going through, was horrified when we told her what had happened.
"I'm quite appalled really that... she [senior branch manager] has kind of taken options out of my hands and probably done me out of quite a bit of money, really."
If you have more information about this story, you can reach Panorama directly by email - panorama.reply@bbc.co.uk
Connells said it rejects "any accusation of conditional selling" and that "no harm has been caused" to the customer. There were other offers on Julie's property, it told us, but the accepted offer was the highest.
"It is not the case that customers who use our mortgage services are more likely to successfully purchase a property than those who do not," it added. It said that in the six-week period Panorama was undercover, only two properties out of 14 went to customers using the in-house mortgage service.
It also said it invests "significant time and resources in training our teams to ensure they understand the laws, regulations and guidelines within which they must operate".
"Any employee found to be in breach of these standards faces strict disciplinary action, including dismissal," Connells said.
The senior branch manager told Panorama she was content for Connells to respond on her behalf.
'Overvaluing properties massively'
At Purplebricks, a whistleblower began secretly filming meetings because she says she became frustrated with how the company was being run.
Firstly on her phone, then with a camera provided by Panorama.
The biggest shock for the whistleblower was learning that staff were being incentivised to get price reductions on properties - many of which, she was told by one of the company's local property agents, appeared to have been put on the market for more than they were worth.
"We are overvaluing properties massively just to gain instructions," said the agent to the whistleblower in a private message.
Estate agents often use property valuations to attract customers - and subsequently dropping the asking price is not unusual. The estate agents' code tells companies they "must never deliberately misrepresent the market value of a property".
Purplebricks has adverts, like this one, which say customers can sell their homes for free
The whistleblower was also told in the same message from the agent that staff could earn commission if they persuaded sellers to drop their asking prices.
The same agent suggested to her that 18 price drops per month could earn staff £900 in commission.
In an online meeting, the whistleblower's team leader told staff how to approach conversations with sellers about price drops.
He said, when properties go live, sellers can be told that if there aren't many viewings or offers within the first four weeks then they should "have a conversation about [price] reduction".
"So they won't necessarily push the reduction there and then, but they will plant the seed," he added.
Purplebricks told us it doesn't overvalue properties and that while price reductions were once a target for rewarding staff, that was no longer the case. It said it doesn't claim to be perfect and apologises wherever it has fallen short.
The Purplebricks whistleblower recorded online meetings for Panorama
Purplebricks staff were also under pressure to sell financial products like mortgages and conveyancing, the whistleblower told us.
During the time she worked there, she said the company encouraged customers to get their conveyancing done through companies it had deals with, rather than look elsewhere.
"We don't want them to get a quote for comparison because we are by far and away very expensive," said her team leader during an online meeting.
When Ryan Evans and Olivia Phelps bought a two-bedroom house in Sutton-in-Ashfield through Purplebricks they ended up buying conveyancing services through the company.
Ryan Evans told us he felt Purplebricks "had taken advantage of us a bit because we were first-time buyers"
They paid £2,820 last summer. Using price comparison websites, Panorama found that was nearly three times more than the current cheapest quote for the same property.
"We were none the wiser having never done all this before. I certainly felt like maybe they [Purplebricks] had taken advantage of us a bit because we were first-time buyers," Ryan told us.
Like Connells, Purplebricks is also signed up to the Code of Practice for Residential Estate Agents which says: "You should provide a service to both buyers and sellers consistent with fairness, integrity and best practice."
Our whistleblower also recorded her team leader firing-up staff to sell add-on products in addition to conveyancing.
"So let's try and really squeeze every lead for as much as it's got - and I want us to be a bit more relentless," he told staff at one meeting. "The urgency is massive… there is still a heinous amount of money to be made."
Anyone working in sales is encouraged to sell more, says Lisa Webb of Which?, but it is "a real issue" if an estate agent is "incentivising someone to make a very quick decision" or pressuring them "into making decisions too quickly… before they've had the option to shop around".
Purplebricks said it entirely rejects any portrayal of its service as pressure-selling, adding that it does not promote hard-selling and that it focuses on the benefits, not price, when recommending services.
In a statement, it also said that since new owners took over in 2023, it has "worked hard to improve service and build a team and culture that puts customers first".
The whistleblower's team leader did not want to comment and told us he had left Purplebricks.
'Everything except easy' - how Sinner bounced back to win Wimbledon
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Brilliant Sinner becomes first Italian Wimbledon champion
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Three championship points. Jannik Sinner had been here before. Just 35 days earlier, to be exact.
Nerves would have been understandable as he once again stared across at Carlos Alcaraz, with whom his enthralling rivalry entered the stratosphere following their epic French Open final.
After winning his first Wimbledon title, the 23-year-old Italian stood with his arms aloft, before crouching to the grass in a moment of deep contemplation.
The 15,000 people present - and those watching from afar - understood his reaction.
"Only me and the people who are close to me know exactly what we have been through on and off the court, and it has been everything except easy," Sinner said.
"[It is] very emotional, even if I don't cry.
"To share this moment with my whole family here, it's the most amazing thing that could have happened to me."
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Jannik Sinner had won his first three major finals before losing to Carlos Alcaraz at this year's French Open
Sinner said he would only know the true impact of his French Open heartbreak when he walked out for Sunday's final.
Five weeks ago he lost one of the all-time great Grand Slam showpieces in a way that could have derailed some players' careers, seeing the title wrenched from his grasp after leading by two sets and holding three championship points.
Sinner gave himself just three days off to process the longest French Open final, seeking out friends and family, playing ping-pong and having barbeques when he returned home, before returning to training.
And then he bounced back emphatically to dethrone Alcaraz as Wimbledon champion, ending a five-match losing streak against his main rival in the process.
"Today was important for many reasons. He needed that win today," Darren Cahill, one of Sinner's coaches, said.
"He knew the importance of closing this one out when he had the opportunity."
Co-coach Simone Vagnozzi said it was "tough" after Paris, adding: "We are lucky to work with a guy like this with a good attitude. We are really proud of him."
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Sinner storms to first Wimbledon title against Alcaraz - highlights
Sinner lost in the second round at his only pre-Wimbledon grass-court tournament in Halle.
That defeat by Alexander Bublik was Sinner's first exit before the quarter-finals of an event in 20 months and remains his only loss to someone other than Alcaraz in the past 11 months.
But something appeared to have clicked on his arrival at Wimbledon. After what Cahill described as an "awesome" practice week, he won nine successive sets for the loss of just 17 games in his first three matches.
But, as he posed with his trophy on Sunday evening, it was easy to forget that Sinner came within four games of a shock exit.
He was two sets down against Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round and struggling before the Bulgarian suffered a match-ending injury.
Sinner also injured his elbow in a fall during the match, but he withstood the lingering discomfort to dismiss American 10th seed Ben Shelton and seven-time champion Novak Djokovic in straights sets to reach the final.
"I would say mostly emotionally [it took a lot] because I had a very tough loss in Paris," Sinner said on court, before exchanging a smile with Alcaraz.
"It doesn't matter how you win or lose, you just have to understand what you did wrong and work on that.
"We tried to accept the loss and keep working. That is one of the reasons why I am holding this trophy. Having this means a lot."
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have shared eight of the past nine Grand Slam titles between them
Sinner has also had to overcome challenges off the court.
Such has been the consistency he has shown over the past 12 months, Sinner has kept hold of the world number one ranking despite serving a three-month doping ban earlier this year.
Sinner accepted the ban after the World Anti-Doping Agency found he "did not intend to cheat" but still bore responsibility for the negligence of members of his team after he twice tested positive for banned substance clostebol in March 2024.
That ban was served between the successful defence of his Australian Open title in January and the French Open - now the only trophy separating him from becoming just the ninth man to achieve a career Grand Slam.
Wimbledon women's champion Iga Swiatek also served a one-month ban after testing positive for heart medication trimetazidine, which the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) accepted was caused by contamination.
"His year has been challenging for everybody involved," Cahill said on Sunday.
"The person that you see on the tennis court - this focus and attention to detail - is not the same guy off the court.
"He's a fun-loving guy who is joking around all the time and loves the company of the people around him.
"He's cooking, messing up stuff, making mistakes all over the place, and we're laughing about it."
With Sinner's career now intertwined with that of Alcaraz, they appear destined to push each other to greater heights - and Sinner has proved beyond doubt that he is up to the task.
The group stages showed the best and the worst of England as France exploited their defensive frailties and kicked them into gear for the remaining two matches.
Bruised by their opening defeat, the Lionesses vowed to do their talking on the pitch - and they did.
Emphatic victories against the Netherlands and Wales followed as they finished runners-up in the group, avoiding a heavyweight quarter-final tie with Germany in the process, and a potential meeting with world champions Spain or hosts Switzerland in the semi-finals.
Where they finished in the group did not concern manager Sarina Wiegman - outwardly at least - but she was pleased with the "urgency" that the France loss gave them.
"That really brought us together and everyone really wanted to perform and be successful," she said.
"In the Netherlands game, we really created urgency and momentum by playing really well and to our strengths.
"With that loss, the urgency came and I think the team really responded well. Now hopefully we can show that again against Sweden."
England were dominant in their wins over the Netherlands and Wales, scoring 10 goals in the process, and displaying some of their best free-flowing football.
Lauren James stood out with her individual quality, Ella Toone proved her worth in the starting XI and Alessia Russo was the glue up top.
"It doesn't seem it at the time but [losing to France] was probably the best thing that could have happened to us as a team and it motivated us," said England forward Beth Mead.
"We had hard conversations, we figured things out. You don't win or lose a tournament in the first game.
"Now we are in a position where we are building quite nicely."
Midfielder Keira Walsh said their "slow start" may have "kicked them into gear" but they found confidence and bravery that had been lacking in Zurich.
It would have been a huge disappointment had England failed to qualify for the knockout stages but having progressed from the toughest group in the tournament, Georgia Stanway said it was something worth celebrating.
"There have been many days in this tournament where we could have been going home. To be staying a few more days is something we can be proud of," she added.
What are the key decisions for Wiegman?
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Sarina Wiegman has only lost one match as manager at a Euros
There is plenty for Wiegman to think about going into the quarter-finals.
She was criticised for her set-up in the opening defeat, when James started in the number 10 role and England's midfield was carved apart.
Jess Carter was heavily tested at left-back and Stanway struggled to have an impact on the ball in midfield.
But she reacted and got it spot on against the Dutch, moving James out wide, bringing Toone into the starting XI and swapping Alex Greenwood and Carter's positions in the back four.
It was so successful that she named the same starting XI against Wales.
Asked what the key to England's midfield evolution was, Walsh said: "I think massive credit to Ella Toone. She's come in and done an incredible job.
"People speak about her offensively, but the defensive work she does for me and Georgia [Stanway] when she's in there is incredible.
"She covers a lot of spaces that we can't. That's probably been the main thing that's stopped other teams from playing as well."
Whether Wiegman sticks or twists again is yet to be seen but clearly she has found a winning formula, and she is a manager who likes continuity, having won Euro 2022 with the same starting line-up for all six matches.
She has also learned about her squad depth with Aggie Beever-Jones coming off the bench to score against Wales, while teenager Michelle Agyemang had a presence in her short cameo against France.
What threat will Sweden pose?
Sweden have started strongly in Switzerland, producing the goods in a thrilling 4-1 victory over Germany on Saturday to go through as Group C winners, picking up nine points from their three matches.
They are no strangers to England having faced each other in the semi-finals of Euro 2022 - the Lionesses won 4-0 in emphatic style.
They also met in Euro 2025 qualifying with Sweden holding England to a frustrating 1-1 draw at Wembley in April 2024, followed by a goalless draw three months later.
Both nations have now progressed from the group stages in their last six major tournaments, so this is familiar territory.
"We watched their game [against Germany]. It was a very interesting game," said Mead.
"They pose a very different threat and it's a team we have played a lot in the past. Hopefully we can nullify what they are good at and bring our strengths."
The United States manager Emma Hayes told ITV that if England were not set-up properly, Sweden will "cause them a lot of problems".
With Chelsea's Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, Arsenal's Stina Blackstenius and Fridolina Rolfo - who recently left Barcelona - among Sweden's ranks, England know they face a strong counter-attacking team.
Walsh says they are also a "really physical" team who have been ruthless in their three matches so far.
Former England goalkeeper Karen Bardsley is also aware of the threats that the Lionesses' next opponents will offer.
"Sweden have got quick wingers, a really talented, experienced midfield and threats in-behind," she told BBC Radio 5 Live. "They are several things that England have struggled with."
But while Sweden are full of confidence, England have built their own momentum and Bardsley is confident they can progress.
"I believe in the Lionesses. I think they can win. It is going to be a significantly different order," she told BBC Radio 5 Live.
生活被摧毁:根据莫斯科方面的说法,对乌克兰的“特别军事行动”原本只打算持续三天时间。然而三年过去了,战争仍在继续。根据智库“战争研究所”(Institute for the Study of War)的最新报告,目前俄罗斯控制着乌克兰约20%的领土,主要集中在东部。这张照片拍摄于2023年5月的顿涅茨克(Donetsk)。
马里乌波尔——乌克兰抵抗的象征:2022年,俄罗斯对乌克兰南部城市马里乌波尔(Mariupol)围攻长达82天。该市遭到猛烈轰炸,最后乌克兰守军被围困在钢铁厂内。俄罗斯轰炸一家医院后,一张孕妇被紧急撤离的照片震惊世界。这张照片由乌克兰记者拍摄,后来凭借纪录片《马里乌波尔的20天》(20 Days in Mariupol)获得奥斯卡奖。
The Bank of England is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if the job market shows signs of slowing down, its governor has said.
In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey said "I really do believe the path is downward" on interest rates.
Interest rates currently stand at 4.25% and will be reviewed at the Bank's next meeting on 7 August.
They affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people.
In the Times interview, Bailey said there were consistent signs that businesses are "adjusting employment and hours" and are giving smaller pay rises following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeve's moveto increase employers' national insurance contributions.
Reeves raised national insurance rates for employers from 13.8% to 15% in April this year, in a move the government estimated would generate £25bn a year.
Bailey said the UK's economy was growing behind its potential, opening up "slack" that would help to bring down inflation.
"I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward," the governor said.
"But we continue to use the words 'gradual and careful' because... some people say to me 'why are you cutting when inflation's above target?"'
Interest rates were held at 4.25% during the Bank's last meeting in June, following two cuts earlier in the year.
During that meeting, Bailey also said interest rates would take a "gradual downward path".
The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, after also shrinking in April, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The unexpected dip was mainly driven by a drop in manufacturing, while retail sales were also "very weak", said the Office.
The UK's performance adds pressure on the government, which has made boosting economic growth a key priority.
Shoppers are taking advantage of a $42 billion government trade-in program aimed at boosting spending. But in recent weeks, some cities have started to cut back on the subsidies.
Shoppers are taking advantage of a $42 billion government trade-in program aimed at boosting spending. But in recent weeks, some cities have started to cut back on the subsidies.
A shopping area in Beijing. Confronting a trade war with the United States, China’s government has poured $42 billion this year into a consumer trade-in program.
Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".
Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".
"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.
Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.
But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?
Attila Kisbenedek via Getty
Thousands of people turned out for Budapest Pride in defiance of the ban
And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.
As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.
A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle
Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.
This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.
Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.
Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Peter Magyar appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024
Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.
Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.
Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.
The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.
Orban's tried-and-tested strategy
Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.
In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.
A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Reuters/Lisa Leutner
Viktor Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010
A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.
Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.
After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.
In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"
A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.
The winner takes all
Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.
While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.
He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.
Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental
In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".
Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".
How he won over world leaders
Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.
Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.
Reuters/Carlos Barria
Trump has said of Orban: "They call him a strong man. He's a tough person"
The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).
Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."
But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.
Are cracks starting to appear?
Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.
He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.
"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.
Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.
Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.
Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.
SOPA Images via Getty
Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years
But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.
Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."
Battle for the soul of Hungary
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.
"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.
The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.
"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.
In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.
Valery Sharifulin via Getty
He depicts his good relations with Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil
Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.
"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.
Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)
But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".
He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."
As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.
Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty
BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.
In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.
Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.
Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".
Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.
In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.
"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.
Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".
He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".
Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.
On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".
Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.
The East of England Ambulance Service and Essex County Fire and Rescue Service were also at the scene
An aircraft has crashed at London Southend Airport, police have confirmed.
Essex Police said it was alerted to a 12-metre plane on fire at the site in Southend-on-Sea shortly before 16:00 BST on Sunday.
The East of England Ambulance Service said four crews were at the scene including a rapid response vehicle, a hazardous area response vehicle and a senior paramedic.
The Labour MP for Southend West and Leigh, David Burton-Sampson, said on X: "My thoughts are with everyone involved."
Police said, as a precaution, officers have evacuated the Rochford Hundred Golf Club and Westcliff Rugby Club due to its proximity to the incident.
Contributed
Following the crash all flights from Southend Airport have been cancelled
A spokesperson for Essex Police said: "We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.
"We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues."
Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said it was called to the incident at 15:58.
The service has asked people to avoid the area if possible.
A spokesperson said: "Crews from Southend (two), Rayleigh Weir and Basildon (two), along with off-road vehicles from Billericay and Chelmsford attended.
"We are continuing to work at the scene with our emergency services and aviation partners."
Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".
Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".
"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.
Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.
But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?
Attila Kisbenedek via Getty
Thousands of people turned out for Budapest Pride in defiance of the ban
And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.
As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.
A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle
Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.
This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.
Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.
Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Peter Magyar appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024
Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.
Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.
Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.
The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.
Orban's tried-and-tested strategy
Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.
In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.
A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Reuters/Lisa Leutner
Viktor Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010
A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.
Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.
After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.
In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"
A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.
The winner takes all
Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.
While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.
He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.
Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental
In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".
Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".
How he won over world leaders
Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.
Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.
Reuters/Carlos Barria
Trump has said of Orban: "They call him a strong man. He's a tough person"
The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).
Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."
But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.
Are cracks starting to appear?
Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.
He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.
"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.
Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.
Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.
Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.
SOPA Images via Getty
Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years
But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.
Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."
Battle for the soul of Hungary
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.
"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.
The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.
"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.
In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.
Valery Sharifulin via Getty
He depicts his good relations with Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil
Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.
"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.
Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)
But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".
He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."
As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.
Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty
BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.
In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.
Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.
Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".
Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.
In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.
"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.
Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".
He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".
Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.
On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".
Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.
Water levels in Lake Toronto, a reservoir in the north of Mexico, are said to be critically low
After the thirtieth consecutive month without rain, the townsfolk of San Francisco de Conchos in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua gather to plead for divine intervention.
On the shores of Lake Toronto, the reservoir behind the state's most important dam – called La Boquilla, a priest leads local farmers on horseback and their families in prayer, the stony ground beneath their feet once part of the lakebed before the waters receded to today's critically low levels.
Among those with their heads bowed is Rafael Betance, who has voluntarily monitored La Boquilla for the state water authority for 35 years.
"This should all be underwater," he says, motioning towards the parched expanse of exposed white rocks.
"The last time the dam was full and caused a tiny overflow was 2017," Mr Betance recalls. "Since then, it's decreased year on year.
"We're currently at 26.52 metres below the high-water mark, less than 14% of its capacity."
Rafael Betance says that water levels in the reservoir have fallen for the past eight years
Little wonder the local community is beseeching the heavens for rain. Still, few expect any let up from the crippling drought and sweltering 42C (107.6F) heat.
Now, a long-running dispute with Texas over the scarce resource is threatening to turn ugly.
Under the terms of a 1944 water-sharing agreement, Mexico must send 430 million cubic metres of water per year from the Rio Grande to the US.
The water is sent via a system of tributary channels into shared dams owned and operated by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees and regulates water-sharing between the two neighbours.
In return, the US sends its own much larger allocation (nearly 1.85 billion cubic metres a year) from the Colorado River to supply the Mexican border cities of Tijuana and Mexicali.
Mexico is in arrears and has failed to keep up with its water deliveries for much of the 21st Century.
Following pressure from Republican lawmakers in Texas, the Trump administration warned Mexico that water could be withheld from the Colorado River unless it fulfils its obligations under the 81-year-old treaty.
In April, on his Truth Social account, US President Donald Trump accused Mexico of "stealing" the water and threatened to keep escalating to "TARIFFS, and maybe even SANCTIONS" until Mexico sends Texas what it owes. Still, he gave no firm deadline by when such retaliation might happen.
For her part, the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, acknowledged Mexico's shortfall but struck a more conciliatory tone.
Since then, Mexico has transferred an initial 75 million cubic metres of water to the US via their shared dam, Amistad, located along the border, but that is just a fraction of the roughly 1.5 billion cubic metres of Mexico's outstanding debt.
Feelings on cross-border water sharing can run dangerously high: in September 2020, two Mexican people were killed in clashes with the National Guard at La Boquilla's sluice gates as farmers tried to stop the water from being redirected.
Amid the acute drought, the prevailing view in Chihuahua is that "you can't take from what isn't there", says local expert Rafael Betance.
But that doesn't help Brian Jones to water his crops.
A fourth-generation farmer in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, for the past three years he has only been able to plant half of his farm because he doesn't have enough irrigation water.
"We've been battling Mexico as they've not been living up to their part of the deal," he says. "All we're asking for is what's rightfully ours under the treaty, nothing extra."
Mr Jones also disputes the extent of the problem in Chihuahua. He believes that in October 2022 the state received more than enough water to share, but released "exactly zero" to the US, accusing his neighbours of "hoarding water and using it to grow crops to compete with us".
Farmers on the Mexican side read the agreement differently. They say it only binds them to send water north when Mexico can satisfy its own needs, and argue that Chihuahua's ongoing drought means there's no excess available.
Beyond the water scarcity, there are also arguments over agricultural efficiency.
Walnut trees and alfalfa are two of the main crops in Chihuahua's Rio Conchos Valley, both of which require a lot of watering – walnut trees need on average 250 litres a day.
Traditionally, Mexican farmers have simply flooded their fields with water from the irrigation channel. Driving around the valley one quickly sees walnut trees sitting in shallow pools, the water flowing in from an open pipe.
The complaint from Texas is obvious: the practice is wasteful and easily avoided with more responsible and sustainable farming methods.
Many Mexican walnut farmers flood their fields with irrigation water
As Jaime Ramirez walks through his walnut groves, the former mayor of San Francisco de Conchos shows me how his modern sprinkler system ensures his walnut trees are properly watered all year round without wasting the precious resource.
"With the sprinklers, we use around 60% less than flooding the fields," he says. The system also means they can water the trees less frequently, which is particularly useful when the Rio Conchos is too low to allow local irrigation.
Mr Ramirez readily admits, though, that some of his neighbours aren't so conscientious. As a former local mayor, he urges understanding.
Some haven't adopted the sprinkler method because of the costs in setting it up, he says. He's tried to show other farmers that it works out cheaper in the long run, saving on energy and water costs.
But farmers in Texas must also understand that their counterparts in Chihuahua are facing an existential threat, Mr Ramirez insists.
Walnut farmer Jaime Ramirez admits that some of his neighbours are wasteful with water
"This is a desert region and the rains haven't come. If the rain doesn't come again this year, then next year there simply won't be any agriculture left. All the available water will have to be conserved as drinking water for human beings," he warns.
Many in northern Mexico believe the 1944 water-sharing treaty is no longer fit for purpose. Mr Ramirez thinks it may have been adequate for conditions eight decades ago, but it has failed to adapt with the times or properly account for population growth or the ravages of climate change.
Back across the border, Texan farmer Brian Jones says the agreement has stood the test of time and should still be honoured.
"This treaty was signed when my grandfather was farming. It's been through my grandfather, my father and now me," he says.
"Now we're seeing Mexico not comply. It's very angering to have a farm where I'm only able to plant half the ground because I don't have irrigation water."
Trump's tougher stance has given the local farmers "a pep in our step", he adds.
Meanwhile, the drought hasn't just harmed farming in Chihuahua.
With Lake Toronto's levels so low, Mr Betance says the remaining water in the reservoir is heating up with uncommon speed and creating a potential disaster for the marine life which sustains a once-thriving tourism industry.
The valley's outlook hasn't been this dire, Mr Betance says, in the entire time he's spent carefully recording the lake's ups and downs. "Praying for rain is all we have left," he reflects.
"Time to clear the heir, papa" says the front page of The Sun, reporting on the so-called "peace summit" between aides of the King and Prince Harry.
The Mirror also leads with what it's called a "royal exclusive" with the headline "King backs Harry peace talks", however, the paper warns "huge obstacles remain". The Princess of Wales is pictured alongside her daughter, Princess Charlotte, fanning themselves in the royal box at Wimbledon on Sunday. They watched Jannick Sinner beat Carlos Alcaraz in four sets in the men's final.
A beaming photo of the Wimbledon champion clutching his new Wimbledon trophy, features on the Guardian's front page, with the headline "Sinner's redemption". Their main story says former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has warned of an "ethnic cleansing" plan for Gaza, with Olmert suggesting that a proposed humanitarian city in Rafah would be tantamount to a "concentration camp". Israel has previously denied all allegations of ethnic cleansing in Gaza.
Sinner is pictured kissing the golden Wimbledon trophy on the front page of The Times. Its lead story is a warning from the governor of the Bank of England that it could make larger cuts to interest rates if the UK jobs market slows down.
"Tax raid looms for middle classes", warns The Daily Telegraph. The paper quotes Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander promising not put up taxes for people on "modest incomes" and saying Labour would base its policy on "fairness".
"Germany urges weapons suppliers to speed up European rearmament" reads the The Financial Times' headline. The FT has interviewed German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who is calling for weapons production to increase as Europe seeks to deter Russian aggression. The front page image shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shaking hands with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, after pledging "unconditional support" for the Kremlin's goals in the war in Ukraine over the weekend.
The Metro states "Politicians? We don't trust any of you". Its lead story says 90% of people questioned in a poll said they had little to no faith in the political class. The most common word they used to describe the UK was "broken".
The Daily Mail's headline is "Labour's doctors strike hypocrisy" as it turns its attention to the proposed strike by resident doctors. The paper says the government's Employment Rights Bill would make future strikes even easier with the repealing of the minimum turnout requirement for trade unions. A government spokesperson told the paper the bill represents the "biggest upgrade to workers' rights in a generation".
The headline of the Daily Express warns "'Toothless' new sex abuse laws won't protect children". The Joint Committee on Human Rights - made up of MPs and peers - has said a proposed new Crime and Policing Bill could be "ineffective" if there are no criminal repercussions for people who fail to report child sex abuse. A Home Office spokesperson told the paper the introduction of mandatory reporting will mark a "significant step" in strengthening child protection by creating "a culture of openness".
The i newspaper leads with a "measles surge". It reports doctors and health chiefs are warning that cases in the UK could rise as people return from holidays in France, Spain and Italy. It is after a child died at a Liverpool hospital after contracting the disease.
"School jollydays" exclaims the Daily Star. It reports there will be a fourth heatwave, with temperatures predicted to hit 31C later this month.
He wrote about the elite cycling race for The New York Times and The International Herald Tribune. He said he was smitten by the Tour from the first day.
Samuel Abt in 2001. An editor for several newspapers before joining The New York Times, he went to Paris to work for The International Herald Tribune. There that he discovered the beauty of bicycle racing,