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Woman smuggled baby into UK using fake birth story

Getty Images Newborn baby in travel seatGetty Images

Last summer, a woman was arrested at Gatwick Airport after she arrived from Nigeria with a very young baby girl.

The woman had been living in West Yorkshire with her husband and children, and before leaving the UK for Africa had told her GP she was pregnant.

That was not true.

When the woman returned about a month later with the baby, she was arrested on suspicion of trafficking.

The case, the second the BBC has followed through the Family Court in recent months, reveals what experts say is a worrying trend of babies possibly being brought to the UK unlawfully - some from so-called "baby factories" in Nigeria.

'My babies are always hidden'

The woman, who we are calling Susan, is Nigerian, but had been living in England since June 2023, with her husband and children.

A careworker with leave to remain in Britain, Susan claimed she was pregnant. But scans and blood tests showed that wasn't true. Instead, they revealed Susan had a tumour, which doctors feared could be cancerous. But she refused treatment.

Susan insisted her previous pregnancies had been invisible on scans, telling her employer, "my babies are always hidden". She also claimed she'd been pregnant for up to 30 months with her other children.

Susan had travelled to Nigeria in early June 2024, saying she wanted to have her baby there, and then contacted her local hospital in Britain, to say she had given birth.

Doctors were concerned and contacted children's services.

Arriving back in the UK with the baby girl - who we're calling Eleanor - Susan was stopped and arrested by Sussex Police.

She was bailed and the lead police force on this confirmed there is no active investigation at the moment.

After her arrest, Susan, her husband, and Eleanor were given DNA tests. Eleanor was taken to foster carers.

"When the results show that I am Eleanor's mother, I want her to be returned immediately," Susan said.

But the tests showed the baby had no genetic link with Susan or her husband. Susan demanded a second test – which gave the same result, and then she changed her story.

She'd had IVF treatment before moving to Britain in 2023 with a donor egg and sperm, she said, and that's why the DNA tests were negative.

Susan provided a letter from a Nigerian hospital, signed by the medical director, saying she'd given birth there, as well as a document from another clinic about the IVF treatment to back up her claims.

She also provided photos and videos which she said showed her in the Nigerian hospital's labour suite. No face is visible in the images and one showed a naked woman with a placenta between her legs, with an umbilical cord still attached to it.

Alamy Leeds magistrate & Family CourtAlamy

Someone had given birth - it wasn't Susan

The Family Court in Leeds sent Henrietta Coker to investigate.

Ms Coker, who provides expert reports to family courts in cases like this, has nearly 30 years experience as a social worker. She trained in Britain, and worked in front-line child protection in London, before moving to Africa.

Ms Coker visited the medical centre where Susan claimed she'd had IVF. There was no record of Susan having had treatment there - staff told her the letter was forged.

She then visited the place Susan said she'd given birth. It was a shabby, three bedroom flat, with "stained" walls and "dirty" carpets.

There Ms Coker was met by "three young teenage girls sitting in the reception room with nurses' uniforms on".

She asked to speak to the matron and was "ushered into the kitchen where a teenage girl was eating rice".

Ms Coker then tracked down the doctor who'd written a letter saying Susan had given birth there. He said, "Yes, someone had given birth".

Ms Coker showed him a photograph of Susan, but it wasn't her, the doctor said.

"Impersonating people is common in this part of the world," he told Ms Coker, suggesting that Susan might have "bought the baby".

Supplied A woman in a pattern jumpsuit and sandals sits on a wall infront of the ocean, posing and smiling for the pictureSupplied
Henrietta Coker has decades of experience as a social worker

The practice of "baby farming" is well known in West Africa, Ms Coker later told the court. At least 200 illegal "baby factories" have been shut down by the Nigerian authorities in the last five years, she said.

Some contained young girls who'd been kidnapped, raped, and forced to give birth repeatedly.

"Sometimes these girls are released," Ms Coker said, "other times they die during childbirth, or are murdered and placed in the grounds of the organisation."

It's not clear where baby Eleanor might have come from – though the doctor told Ms Coker he believed she would have been given up voluntarily.

Ms Coker was unable to establish who Eleanor's real parents are.

She gave evidence to the Family Court in Leeds in March this year, along with Susan, her husband, her employer and a senior obstetrician.

At an earlier hearing the judge asked for Susan's phone to be examined. Investigators found messages which Susan had sent to someone saved in her address book as "Mum oft [sic] Lagos Baby".

About four weeks before the alleged date of birth Susan wrote a text message which read:

"Good afternoon ma, I have not seen the hospital items"

The same day, Mum Oft Lagos Baby responded:

"Delivery drug is 3.4 m

"Hospital bill 170k."

Assuming those sums to be Nigerian Naira, they would be in the region of £1,700 and £85 respectively, the Family Court judge, Recorder William Tyler KC said.

Getty Images Pregnant woman, Lagos, NigeriaGetty Images

The local authority pointed out the messages were set to "automatic self-destruct mode" – and said they represented evidence of a deal to purchase a baby.

Susan tried to explain the messages in court. The Recorder said her attempts were "difficult to follow and impossible to accept".

Recorder Tyler, sitting as a Deputy Judge of the High Court, found Susan had "staged a scene" which she falsely claimed showed her giving birth to Eleanor in Nigeria.

He said Susan and her husband had put forward a "fundamental lie" to explain how Eleanor came to be in their care, and had tried to mislead authorities with false documents.

They'd both caused the little girl "significant emotional and psychological harm", he said.

In early July, the BBC attended the final hearing in Eleanor's case, held remotely.

In one little square of the Teams meeting we could see Susan and her husband, sitting upright, barely moving, focused closely on what the advocates said.

They wanted Eleanor returned to them. Their barristers said their own children were thriving - they wanted to offer her the same love and care.

Susan's husband saw Eleanor as "a fundamental part of their family unit".

Vikki Horspool, representing the child's guardian, a social worker from the Independent Children and Family Child Advisory Service challenged that. She said that the couple "continued to be dishonest" about Eleanor's real start in life and how she came to be in their care.

The judge ordered that baby Eleanor be placed for adoption, and also made a "declaration of non parentage". He said he was aware of the "pain" this would cause Susan and her husband.

The barrister for the local authority told the court that the baby is "very settled" with her foster carer, taking part in activities in her community, getting medical treatment.

When Eleanor is adopted she will have a new identity and British nationality - but she may never know who her real parents are.

Eleanor's story echoes the case of "Lucy" – who was brought into Manchester Airport in 2023, by a man claiming to be her father.

'Money exchanged for children'

Ms Coker believes its likely more children have been brought unlawfully to the UK from West Africa. She told the BBC she has worked on around a dozen similar cases since the pandemic. In her experience, baby trafficking is commonplace.

"Money is getting exchanged for children on a large scale" she said - not just in Africa but "across the global south".

Since 2021 the UK government has restricted adoptions from Nigeria, partly because of "evidence of organised child trafficking" within the country.

British authorities have been aware of the problem for many years, and there have been several cases in the Family Courts over the last 20 years.

Two hearings in 2011 and 2012 involved Nigerian couples who'd had "fertility treatment " that led to a "miracle baby".

These "treatments" continue, as recently exposed by investigative journalists at BBC Africa Eye.

In 2013, the UK High Commission in Lagos required DNA tests in certain circumstances before newborn babies could be taken from Nigeria to Britain.

Amongst 12 couples investigated was a former Oxford academic, prosecuted for immigration offences.

However this process has since stopped. In 2018 officials were advised that such DNA testing was unlawful.

They were told they could not make people undergo DNA testing when they were asking for a visa or passport in support of an application relating to immigration status – and that had been the case since 2014.

Ms Coker said some clinics offer "packages" that include registering the baby's birth. It will cost anywhere between £2,000 and £8,000, excluding any airfare, she said.

She thinks more people in Britain should be aware of this activity.

It is hard to tackle, she said - perhaps DNA testing of newborn babies and purported parents would help.

But she wasn't sure the British government can do much to stop it, she said, "the issues start in countries where the children are born".

Patricia Durr, CEO of the anti-trafficking charity ECPAT said cases like this were particularly "heinous" because they denied a child right to their identity.

She said: "Every effort must be made to prevent these egregious crimes occurring."

A government spokesperson said: "Falsely claiming to be the parent of a child to facilitate entry to the UK is illegal. Those found doing so will face the full force of the law.

"Border Force is committed to protecting individuals who cross the border and where concerns are raised, officers will take action to safeguard individuals who could be at risk."

The BBC contacted the Nigerian High Commission for comment but they did not respond.

If you've been affected by issues raised in this story, there is information and support available on BBC Action Line.

Dubious sales tactics at two leading estate agencies uncovered by BBC investigation

BBC Headshot of Julie, standing outside in front of a pale brick wall. She has straight shoulder-length blonde hair with a fringe and has clear-framed glasses. She is wearing a white v-neck t-shirt and a pearl necklace. BBC
Julie Gallagher sold her house through Connells' Abingdon office, where Panorama went undercover

"She's probably done me out of quite a bit of money - I feel angry and conned."

Julie Gallagher believes her home was sold at a lower price than it could have gone for. There was a buyer who might have offered more for it, an undercover investigation by BBC Panorama can reveal.

Her Connells estate agent appeared to sideline this potential buyer in favour of someone else who had agreed to take out an in-house mortgage.

That mortgage was said to be worth about £2,000 to Connells, while the company potentially stood to make £10,000 in total by arranging add-on services and selling the buyer's property too.

"She sat on this sofa… and said she was actually working for me and she obviously is not, she's working for the company's ends," says Julie. "How dare Connells do that? Just appalling."

Panorama decided to investigate the company after speaking to more than 20 independent financial advisers (IFAs) and mortgage advisers from across England and Wales who had concerns about how the company operated.

One of the biggest estate agencies in the UK, Connells runs 80 chains with more than 1,200 branches. Our undercover reporter, Lucy Vallance, got a job in Abingdon, Oxfordshire, in an own-brand office.

Watch: In Abingdon, a potential buyer taking Connells' in-house services appeared to be favoured over another who wasn't

During her six weeks there in February, she found evidence that the senior branch manager favoured prospective buyers, if they were planning to take out Connells in-house services, like conveyancing or mortgages, because it made more money for the company.

Connells told us it is "committed to treating all customers and prospective buyers fairly."

Panorama also investigated the online estate agency Purplebricks, after we heard concerns it had been trying to attract sellers by overvaluing properties.

Once a customer was signed up, staff then tried to convince them to cut the asking price, earning commission if successful - a former sales negotiator told us. The whistleblower, who worked for the company between June and October 2024, also filmed online meetings for Panorama.

Purplebricks told us price reductions were once a target for rewarding staff, but that is no longer the case, and it does not overvalue properties to win instructions.

'Hot buyers'

In Abingdon, the undercover reporter found that trying to arrange mortgages could be as important as selling houses - and that Connells' staff felt under pressure to get people signed up.

Connells, like many other estate agencies, has an in-house mortgage-brokering team.

The independent financial advisers we have spoken to - who compete for customers with estate agents' in-house services - say this pressure can lead to some agents in the industry playing fast and loose with the rules.

One practice known as "conditional selling" is forbidden by the Code of Practice for Residential Estate Agents, of which many companies across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland - including Connells - are signatories.

This is when an estate agent suggests, implies or tells you that you must arrange things like mortgages or conveyancing services through their in-house teams - or there will be negative consequences for a deal.

It means estate agents signed up to the code know they should not discriminate against prospective buyers who don't use their in-house services.

Connells' senior branch manager told our reporter, at one point, that she understood conditional selling was not allowed.

But that wasn't the full picture.

Estate agents are supposed to work in the best interests of their clients, but we saw how pressure for profit shaped decisions at Connells in Abingdon.

One Saturday, our reporter was asked to host an open-house viewing for Julie's four-bedroom house, which was on the market for offers over £300,000. It attracted great interest. Fifteen people attended and others also wanted to book separate viewings.

But the following Monday, the senior branch manager seemed interested in two possible buyers - those speaking to Connells' in-house brokers. The next day, via WhatsApp, she told her staff not to arrange any more viewings on Julie's house.

One signed up to a Connells-brokered mortgage and became known by the senior branch manager as a "hot buyer".

A board in the office titled "Hot Buyers" had the names of all house hunters at the branch who had agreed to take out a mortgage or a conveyancing package through Connells.

The hot buyer for Julie's house made an initial offer, which she rejected, but eventually upped it to successfully secure the property.

There was another potential buyer interested in the house who appeared to have deeper pockets - a cash buyer. She wasn't taking out a mortgage through the company.

Connells told us they spoke to the cash buyer the Monday after the open house and that she was undecided about putting in an offer. A call from the cash buyer later the same day was missed, said the company, and not followed up.

When the undercover reporter told the office administrator that the cash buyer might have offered more, she was told that "just a sale" was "not good enough" for Connells.

"They will probably more likely aim to get somebody who's signed up with us and wants to use our conveyancing, as opposed to someone who is a cash buyer," said the administrator. "That's just how Connells are. That's why they ride you if you don't have enough mortgage appointments."

Picture of Julie's house taken from the back garden. It is a 1980s semi-detached home with sliding patio doors. She is standing to the right hand side of the doors. It is a sunny day.
Connells' senior branch manager has "taken options out of my hands and probably done me out of quite a bit of money", says Julie Gallagher

Lisa Webb, consumer law expert with Which? Magazine, reviewed Panorama's evidence of how this sale was managed.

"This is absolutely something that should be against the law - and something that I think that these estate agents really ought to be investigated by the authorities for, because this should not be happening," she told us.

The undercover reporter secretly filmed her boss - the senior branch manager - saying why she was so keen on the hot buyer. Not only would it mean collecting fees from the seller, the manager explained, but also commission from the in-house mortgage with conveyancing fees on top.

In addition, Connells would try to sell the hot buyer's old house - and earn more fees.

The senior branch manager said the combined deal could, in total, be worth £10,000 to the company.

"That, in itself, is just appalling behaviour," said Lisa Webb from Which? when we showed her the footage.

Connells for sale sign - written in white letters on a red background - attached to a wooden fence. A house with white wooden cladding can be seen in the background.
Connells says "no harm has been caused" to the customer

According to the 1979 Estate Agents Act it is classed as an "undesirable practice" for estate agents to discriminate against prospective buyers if they don't take out a mortgage through in-house brokers.

If they do this, they can be investigated by Trading Standards. But it looks like the rules may not cover the sidelining of potential buyers as seen by Panorama's undercover reporter.

Those rules need to be updated, according to financial journalist Iona Bain.

"There's clearly a grey area here, whereby estate agents are able to accept one buyer that will use the in-house broker and turn everybody else away," she told us.

Homeowner Julie, who has now packed up and left her house ahead of the sale going through, was horrified when we told her what had happened.

"I'm quite appalled really that... she [senior branch manager] has kind of taken options out of my hands and probably done me out of quite a bit of money, really."

  • If you have more information about this story, you can reach Panorama directly by email - panorama.reply@bbc.co.uk

Connells said it rejects "any accusation of conditional selling" and that "no harm has been caused" to the customer. There were other offers on Julie's property, it told us, but the accepted offer was the highest.

"It is not the case that customers who use our mortgage services are more likely to successfully purchase a property than those who do not," it added. It said that in the six-week period Panorama was undercover, only two properties out of 14 went to customers using the in-house mortgage service.

It also said it invests "significant time and resources in training our teams to ensure they understand the laws, regulations and guidelines within which they must operate".

"Any employee found to be in breach of these standards faces strict disciplinary action, including dismissal," Connells said.

The senior branch manager told Panorama she was content for Connells to respond on her behalf.

'Overvaluing properties massively'

At Purplebricks, a whistleblower began secretly filming meetings because she says she became frustrated with how the company was being run.

Firstly on her phone, then with a camera provided by Panorama.

The biggest shock for the whistleblower was learning that staff were being incentivised to get price reductions on properties - many of which, she was told by one of the company's local property agents, appeared to have been put on the market for more than they were worth.

"We are overvaluing properties massively just to gain instructions," said the agent to the whistleblower in a private message.

Estate agents often use property valuations to attract customers - and subsequently dropping the asking price is not unusual. The estate agents' code tells companies they "must never deliberately misrepresent the market value of a property".

Still taken from an advert, showing a woman standing on a suburban pavement in front of 1930s homes. There are Purplebricks for sale signs in front of three houses. She is wearing a pink suit and has her thumb up.
Purplebricks has adverts, like this one, which say customers can sell their homes for free

The whistleblower was also told in the same message from the agent that staff could earn commission if they persuaded sellers to drop their asking prices.

The same agent suggested to her that 18 price drops per month could earn staff £900 in commission.

In an online meeting, the whistleblower's team leader told staff how to approach conversations with sellers about price drops.

He said, when properties go live, sellers can be told that if there aren't many viewings or offers within the first four weeks then they should "have a conversation about [price] reduction".

"So they won't necessarily push the reduction there and then, but they will plant the seed," he added.

Purplebricks told us it doesn't overvalue properties and that while price reductions were once a target for rewarding staff, that was no longer the case. It said it doesn't claim to be perfect and apologises wherever it has fallen short.

Picture of the Purple Bricks whistleblower taken from behind. She is sitting a a wooden desk with a laptop, in front of a large window which has metal blinds. She has shoulder-length straight grey hair.
The Purplebricks whistleblower recorded online meetings for Panorama

Purplebricks staff were also under pressure to sell financial products like mortgages and conveyancing, the whistleblower told us.

During the time she worked there, she said the company encouraged customers to get their conveyancing done through companies it had deals with, rather than look elsewhere.

"We don't want them to get a quote for comparison because we are by far and away very expensive," said her team leader during an online meeting.

When Ryan Evans and Olivia Phelps bought a two-bedroom house in Sutton-in-Ashfield through Purplebricks they ended up buying conveyancing services through the company.

Olivia and Ryan pictured sitting next to each other, from a slight sideways angle, on a sofa in a living room. Olivia is slightly out of focus in the foreground, she has long, dark hair tied back, and a tight-fitting pink top. She is wearing glasses. Ryan has short fair hair with a fringe, black-rimmed glasses and is wearing a red-T-shirt.
Ryan Evans told us he felt Purplebricks "had taken advantage of us a bit because we were first-time buyers"

They paid £2,820 last summer. Using price comparison websites, Panorama found that was nearly three times more than the current cheapest quote for the same property.

"We were none the wiser having never done all this before. I certainly felt like maybe they [Purplebricks] had taken advantage of us a bit because we were first-time buyers," Ryan told us.

Like Connells, Purplebricks is also signed up to the Code of Practice for Residential Estate Agents which says: "You should provide a service to both buyers and sellers consistent with fairness, integrity and best practice."

Our whistleblower also recorded her team leader firing-up staff to sell add-on products in addition to conveyancing.

"So let's try and really squeeze every lead for as much as it's got - and I want us to be a bit more relentless," he told staff at one meeting. "The urgency is massive… there is still a heinous amount of money to be made."

Anyone working in sales is encouraged to sell more, says Lisa Webb of Which?, but it is "a real issue" if an estate agent is "incentivising someone to make a very quick decision" or pressuring them "into making decisions too quickly… before they've had the option to shop around".

Purplebricks said it entirely rejects any portrayal of its service as pressure-selling, adding that it does not promote hard-selling and that it focuses on the benefits, not price, when recommending services.

In a statement, it also said that since new owners took over in 2023, it has "worked hard to improve service and build a team and culture that puts customers first".

The whistleblower's team leader did not want to comment and told us he had left Purplebricks.

'Everything except easy' - how Sinner bounced back to win Wimbledon

'Everything except easy' - how Sinner bounced back to win Wimbledon

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Brilliant Sinner becomes first Italian Wimbledon champion

  • Published

Three championship points. Jannik Sinner had been here before. Just 35 days earlier, to be exact.

Nerves would have been understandable as he once again stared across at Carlos Alcaraz, with whom his enthralling rivalry entered the stratosphere following their epic French Open final.

But this was a different Sinner to the one who had suffered that devastating loss in Paris.

After winning his first Wimbledon title, the 23-year-old Italian stood with his arms aloft, before crouching to the grass in a moment of deep contemplation.

The 15,000 people present - and those watching from afar - understood his reaction.

"Only me and the people who are close to me know exactly what we have been through on and off the court, and it has been everything except easy," Sinner said.

"[It is] very emotional, even if I don't cry.

"To share this moment with my whole family here, it's the most amazing thing that could have happened to me."

Jannik Sinner crouches to the ground after securing his first Wimbledon titleImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Jannik Sinner had won his first three major finals before losing to Carlos Alcaraz at this year's French Open

Sinner said he would only know the true impact of his French Open heartbreak when he walked out for Sunday's final.

Five weeks ago he lost one of the all-time great Grand Slam showpieces in a way that could have derailed some players' careers, seeing the title wrenched from his grasp after leading by two sets and holding three championship points.

Sinner gave himself just three days off to process the longest French Open final, seeking out friends and family, playing ping-pong and having barbeques when he returned home, before returning to training.

And then he bounced back emphatically to dethrone Alcaraz as Wimbledon champion, ending a five-match losing streak against his main rival in the process.

"Today was important for many reasons. He needed that win today," Darren Cahill, one of Sinner's coaches, said.

"He knew the importance of closing this one out when he had the opportunity."

Co-coach Simone Vagnozzi said it was "tough" after Paris, adding: "We are lucky to work with a guy like this with a good attitude. We are really proud of him."

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Sinner storms to first Wimbledon title against Alcaraz - highlights

Sinner lost in the second round at his only pre-Wimbledon grass-court tournament in Halle.

That defeat by Alexander Bublik was Sinner's first exit before the quarter-finals of an event in 20 months and remains his only loss to someone other than Alcaraz in the past 11 months.

But something appeared to have clicked on his arrival at Wimbledon. After what Cahill described as an "awesome" practice week, he won nine successive sets for the loss of just 17 games in his first three matches.

But, as he posed with his trophy on Sunday evening, it was easy to forget that Sinner came within four games of a shock exit.

He was two sets down against Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round and struggling before the Bulgarian suffered a match-ending injury.

Sinner also injured his elbow in a fall during the match, but he withstood the lingering discomfort to dismiss American 10th seed Ben Shelton and seven-time champion Novak Djokovic in straights sets to reach the final.

"I would say mostly emotionally [it took a lot] because I had a very tough loss in Paris," Sinner said on court, before exchanging a smile with Alcaraz.

"It doesn't matter how you win or lose, you just have to understand what you did wrong and work on that.

"We tried to accept the loss and keep working. That is one of the reasons why I am holding this trophy. Having this means a lot."

Jannik Sinner celebrates his Wimbledon triumphImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have shared eight of the past nine Grand Slam titles between them

Sinner has also had to overcome challenges off the court.

Such has been the consistency he has shown over the past 12 months, Sinner has kept hold of the world number one ranking despite serving a three-month doping ban earlier this year.

Sinner accepted the ban after the World Anti-Doping Agency found he "did not intend to cheat" but still bore responsibility for the negligence of members of his team after he twice tested positive for banned substance clostebol in March 2024.

That ban was served between the successful defence of his Australian Open title in January and the French Open - now the only trophy separating him from becoming just the ninth man to achieve a career Grand Slam.

Wimbledon women's champion Iga Swiatek also served a one-month ban after testing positive for heart medication trimetazidine, which the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) accepted was caused by contamination.

Cahill previously described Sinner as being worn down physically and mentally by the investigation.

"His year has been challenging for everybody involved," Cahill said on Sunday.

"The person that you see on the tennis court - this focus and attention to detail - is not the same guy off the court.

"He's a fun-loving guy who is joking around all the time and loves the company of the people around him.

"He's cooking, messing up stuff, making mistakes all over the place, and we're laughing about it."

With Sinner's career now intertwined with that of Alcaraz, they appear destined to push each other to greater heights - and Sinner has proved beyond doubt that he is up to the task.

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England building 'urgency' - are they ready for Sweden?

England building 'urgency' - are they ready for Sweden?

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England thrash Wales to seal quarter-final spot

England booked their place in the quarter-finals of Euro 2025 in style with a thumping victory over Wales - so are they ready to take the next step?

They showed why they mean business in Switzerland, beating Wales 6-1 after a crucial 4-0 win over the Netherlands.

It has not been all smooth sailing - their 2-1 loss to France in the opening match put them on the back foot - but England are building momentum.

Sweden are up next on Thursday (20:00 BST) in a repeat of the Euro 2022 semi-final as England look to continue the defence of their title.

How has England's tournament been so far?

The group stages showed the best and the worst of England as France exploited their defensive frailties and kicked them into gear for the remaining two matches.

Bruised by their opening defeat, the Lionesses vowed to do their talking on the pitch - and they did.

Emphatic victories against the Netherlands and Wales followed as they finished runners-up in the group, avoiding a heavyweight quarter-final tie with Germany in the process, and a potential meeting with world champions Spain or hosts Switzerland in the semi-finals.

Where they finished in the group did not concern manager Sarina Wiegman - outwardly at least - but she was pleased with the "urgency" that the France loss gave them.

"That really brought us together and everyone really wanted to perform and be successful," she said.

"In the Netherlands game, we really created urgency and momentum by playing really well and to our strengths.

"With that loss, the urgency came and I think the team really responded well. Now hopefully we can show that again against Sweden."

England were dominant in their wins over the Netherlands and Wales, scoring 10 goals in the process, and displaying some of their best free-flowing football.

Lauren James stood out with her individual quality, Ella Toone proved her worth in the starting XI and Alessia Russo was the glue up top.

"It doesn't seem it at the time but [losing to France] was probably the best thing that could have happened to us as a team and it motivated us," said England forward Beth Mead.

"We had hard conversations, we figured things out. You don't win or lose a tournament in the first game.

"Now we are in a position where we are building quite nicely."

Midfielder Keira Walsh said their "slow start" may have "kicked them into gear" but they found confidence and bravery that had been lacking in Zurich.

It would have been a huge disappointment had England failed to qualify for the knockout stages but having progressed from the toughest group in the tournament, Georgia Stanway said it was something worth celebrating.

"There have been many days in this tournament where we could have been going home. To be staying a few more days is something we can be proud of," she added.

What are the key decisions for Wiegman?

Sarina WiegmanImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Sarina Wiegman has only lost one match as manager at a Euros

There is plenty for Wiegman to think about going into the quarter-finals.

She was criticised for her set-up in the opening defeat, when James started in the number 10 role and England's midfield was carved apart.

Jess Carter was heavily tested at left-back and Stanway struggled to have an impact on the ball in midfield.

But she reacted and got it spot on against the Dutch, moving James out wide, bringing Toone into the starting XI and swapping Alex Greenwood and Carter's positions in the back four.

It was so successful that she named the same starting XI against Wales.

Asked what the key to England's midfield evolution was, Walsh said: "I think massive credit to Ella Toone. She's come in and done an incredible job.

"People speak about her offensively, but the defensive work she does for me and Georgia [Stanway] when she's in there is incredible.

"She covers a lot of spaces that we can't. That's probably been the main thing that's stopped other teams from playing as well."

Whether Wiegman sticks or twists again is yet to be seen but clearly she has found a winning formula, and she is a manager who likes continuity, having won Euro 2022 with the same starting line-up for all six matches.

She has also learned about her squad depth with Aggie Beever-Jones coming off the bench to score against Wales, while teenager Michelle Agyemang had a presence in her short cameo against France.

What threat will Sweden pose?

Sweden have started strongly in Switzerland, producing the goods in a thrilling 4-1 victory over Germany on Saturday to go through as Group C winners, picking up nine points from their three matches.

They are no strangers to England having faced each other in the semi-finals of Euro 2022 - the Lionesses won 4-0 in emphatic style.

They also met in Euro 2025 qualifying with Sweden holding England to a frustrating 1-1 draw at Wembley in April 2024, followed by a goalless draw three months later.

Both nations have now progressed from the group stages in their last six major tournaments, so this is familiar territory.

"We watched their game [against Germany]. It was a very interesting game," said Mead.

"They pose a very different threat and it's a team we have played a lot in the past. Hopefully we can nullify what they are good at and bring our strengths."

The United States manager Emma Hayes told ITV that if England were not set-up properly, Sweden will "cause them a lot of problems".

With Chelsea's Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, Arsenal's Stina Blackstenius and Fridolina Rolfo - who recently left Barcelona - among Sweden's ranks, England know they face a strong counter-attacking team.

Walsh says they are also a "really physical" team who have been ruthless in their three matches so far.

Former England goalkeeper Karen Bardsley is also aware of the threats that the Lionesses' next opponents will offer.

"Sweden have got quick wingers, a really talented, experienced midfield and threats in-behind," she told BBC Radio 5 Live. "They are several things that England have struggled with."

But while Sweden are full of confidence, England have built their own momentum and Bardsley is confident they can progress.

"I believe in the Lionesses. I think they can win. It is going to be a significantly different order," she told BBC Radio 5 Live.

More on this story

萝严肃|当一个女生被安上“有损国格”的罪名

CDT 档案卡
标题:当一个女生被安上“有损国格”的罪名
作者:萝严肃
发表日期:2025.7.13
来源:萝严肃
主题归类:民族主义
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

今天的微博热搜榜赫然放着一个素人女学生的真名实姓(下图已打码):

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通常我以为值得高校做出开除处罚的事情是:男性偷拍女性,男性性骚扰女性,男性是性侵犯,男性虐待动物……

而这次这位女生在热搜上的罪名是“出轨”。

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起因是2024年12月,一名乌克兰电竞选手Zeus(本名Danylo Teslenko)来中国比赛期间,和一位女大学生发生关系,在粉丝群擅自发布自己和这位女生的视频,而他本人已婚已育却跟粉丝炫耀这些,可以说是毫无道德。

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网传这个女生和Zeus发生关系时自己也有男友,就算这个女生当时有男友,那也是学生阶段谈恋爱,变动再多没有必要拿着道德大棒谴责到什么地步。男方是公开的已婚已育,显然有婚姻忠诚义务。

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△不守男德的外国男人

尤其要注意的是,Zeus是偷拍了那个女生,擅自发到粉丝群,是他侵犯女生隐私并扩散偷拍视频,制造更大范围的羞辱,令女生陷入网暴。

今天很多人说“可是那个女生也是愿意面对镜头的”“那个女生自己也知情会被拍”,这不是事实。

网传视频有三条。第一条是Zeus在飞机上,边上坐着两个女生,他把自拍镜头对着这两个女生让她们打招呼;第二条是在房间内Zeus拍摄女生跟女生对话;第三条是女生已经睡着了,他拍摄睡觉中的女生。

第三条明显是偷拍,侵犯隐私擅自传播,女生应该报警。

其他视频有没有征求过Zeus同意发到粉丝群,也要打问号,也涉嫌侵犯隐私。可以确认的是,微博上开始出现这些视频时,女生要求发布者删除。这不是一次双方同意的“要传播出去给所有人看的拍摄”。

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在被迫去验证“女生有没有同意把视频传播上网”的过程里也感到很痛苦。我根本不想看这些东西,但为什么每一次都有人说,“她愿意”“她自找的”“她也不是好东西”。

这个已婚已育的Zeus不止一次借着工作机会约女性,并擅自把女性容貌拍出来发到网络上传播,他是侵犯女性隐私公开羞辱女性的惯犯。

然而追随垃圾男者众,很多中国男性网友自以为占领道德高地,跟着已婚已育的外国出轨男人一起攻击中国女人是“easy girl”。

这些行为足以构成网暴,惊人的是,7月8日,女生所在的大连工业大学却宣布将这名女生开除学籍。

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处分依据是什么?《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条第六款及《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第六款。

好,我们来看,我国教育部发布的《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条规定了学校可以让学生退学的情形,第六款是,“其他情形”,以学校规定为准。

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有法律人士提出,“退学”和“开除学籍”是两回事,大连工业大学引用“退学”的规定来执行“开除学籍”的决定,已经涉嫌行政违法和民事侵权。(详见大连工业大学已经涉嫌行政违法和民事侵权

再看学校规定,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第六款是:“与外国人不正当交往,有损国格、校誉的,视情节给予记过及以上处分。”

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△顺便说一下,上述截图来自大连工业大学官网,在第四款“接受或提供色情服务”部分,色情中间写成了“色_hexie_情”,一个学校的官网为什么不能好好写规范标准的中文,官网的敏感词审查自己不能识别出来这到底是什么内容吗?

“与外国人不正当交往”并“有损国格”,所以需要开除,光看这个描述我以为是当间谍,结果这条规定运用的情形是:女生与外国人发生关系并被偷拍传播。

援引法律来看,是外国男性偷拍,女生是受害者。而学校选择把受害者姓名挂到网上,通报全校将其开除。

如果这个女生是跟一个中国男人发生了关系,学校会管吗?

一个女生跟一个外国人发生了关系,立刻算“有损国格”。张艺谋的《满江红》把民族大义投射于女子贞操上,票房大卖,看来是有群众基础。

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大连工业大学带头二次伤害并网暴偷拍受害者,而网络上一些低俗男性拍手叫好,其根本逻辑是:一个国家的女性是这个国家男性的私有财产。素不相识的本国女性和外国男性发生关系,已足够令他们男性自尊瞬间受损并应激将自己的自卑上升为“国格”。

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收到一条评论精准概括了自卑男性强行绑架民族主义对女性进行荡妇羞辱的心态。其实这一切根本无涉“国格”,只跟“性别”有关,(部分低素质的)男性认为自己就是种族就是国家,性欲和性压抑都能恬不知耻地直接上升到群体荣辱,而女性则被视作一个物品,一个可征服并标记归属的私有物。

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女性被偷拍了,她是受害者。

真正维护国格的事情难道不是帮助本国的女性受害者报案,并追究外籍偷拍者的责任?

今天的社交网络,热搜第一位挂着她的真姓大名,多家媒体直接跟着一起发受害者名字。堪称一种“赛博游街”。

请问新浪微博编辑和部分新闻媒体,你们的媒介素养和新闻伦理是被埋了吗?

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热搜词里写的是“女生出轨”,评论里又是密密麻麻的“知三当三”,这是仅针对女性的道德指责。那个已婚已育的男性电竞选手Zeus才是真正的婚内出轨啊!

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部分男性激动指责受害者的“道德”,充满了对“女人会找别的男人”“本国女人会找外国男人”的恐惧,只能用疯狂的羞辱和谩骂试图把女性都锁进妇道的笼子,大学生谈恋爱一纸婚书都无,就要负上如此沉重的贞操锁。

对比前不久刚刚发生的“南京红老头”事件,是红老头偷拍、涉嫌传播传染病。到现在既不知道事情来龙去脉也不知道后续如何处置。跟红老头发生不安全性行为关系的人里面有丈夫、有刚订婚的未婚夫,这些男人姓甚名谁,单位处理了吗,对受害者那些女性如何交代?

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不知道。但他们是男大V嘴里应该被同情的“孩子们”。

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高校处罚男生的通报,我们在新闻里见过太多了,那些偷拍女性的、性骚扰的、虐待动物的那些男学生,不公布真实姓名,一律是某某某,避而不谈,含糊其辞,处分从轻。还有人跟着说“要给犯错的年轻人机会”。

随手搜几个。

浙大男生努某某,强奸罪,不披露真实姓名留校察看;

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桂林电子科技大学一男生偷拍女生裙底,连姓氏都没披露,留校察看;

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武大男生肖某某,在图书馆性骚扰,不披露真实姓名,记过;

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广东海洋大学崔某,虐待动物,不披露真实姓名,留校察看。

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安徽师大一名男教师,多次威胁性骚扰女生,姓名从未被披露,还在被行政处分后又回到学校保卫处任职,校方回应是:“给他留了一口饭吃。”

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以上这些男性违法分子,从老师到学生,都是向更弱势者下手。

虐待动物的,难道社会影响极差,给公众造成恐慌,难道不是急需干预和处罚措施否则容易变成其他恶性犯罪?

更可怕的是,偷拍、性骚扰、猥亵、强奸女性,犯下这些违法行为的男人,都被学校保护得好好的,名字长相无人知晓,学业不中断、事业能转岗。连强奸犯都能留校察看,连多次猥亵女生的惯犯都能放任其继续在学校工作。

而大连工业大学的女学生被偷拍被外国人侵犯隐私,被侮辱、被网暴了,大连工业大学不能保护学生,直接开除受害者,并公布其真实姓名主动引发网暴,任由受害者被低俗舆论践踏。

这与文明社会的距离,才是“有损国格”。

张3丰的世界|大连某大学被开除女生与“性民族主义”

CDT 档案卡
标题:大连某大学被开除女生与“性民族主义”
作者:张3丰
发表日期:2025.7.13
来源:张3丰的世界
主题归类:民族主义
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

以前我觉得大学还是有可取之处,读一下也有收获。今天可能要改变看法,像大连工业大学这样的,真的没必要报考了。

你学校的女生和外国电竞选手发生关系,视频被发到网上,你不去保护自己的学生,也跟着把她挂到网上:开除,而且公布姓名。

包括新京报、中国新闻网在内的众多媒体转载的时候,都不隐去女生姓名,你们今天也被钉在耻辱柱上。

北京日报不但把女生名字做到标题中,还使用叹号——这是耻辱中的耻辱。

你们这些媒体的编辑都是男的?

我觉得下面这些逻辑是成立的:

1、中国女生和中国男生发生关系,视频被男生公布到网上,男生100%会被拘留;

2、中国男生和外国女生发生关系,视频被男生公布到网上,男生多半封神;

3、中国女生和外国男生发生关系,视频被公布到网上,女生被开除……

这就是中国男性的“性民族主义”。

各视频平台上影射这种内容的作品非常多。一张中国女性和黑人男子的合影,就能被很多人演绎成国恨家仇。

一方面意淫别国女性,而发现中国女性和外国男性发生关系,就怒火中烧——一种自卑而仇恨的心理。

为什么说“有辱国格”?这里存在一个数学公式:女性属于“国有”,也就等于属于“自己”,所以外国男人那样干,等于侵犯自己的“财物”。

但是,不去谴责施暴者,而是惩罚受害者,又是我们一百多年来的传统。“女人祸国”,说到底就是一种无能暴怒罢了。

吾我五木|大连工业大学无权开除隐私外泄受害者

CDT 档案卡
标题:大连工业大学无权开除隐私外泄受害者
作者:吾我五木
发表日期:2025.7.13
来源:吾我五木
主题归类:隐私
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

看到《大连工业大学:李某某,拟开除学籍,不当行为造成恶劣影响》的新闻,大连工业大学拟开除涉事女大学生(为避免暴露个人隐私,后文简称为“女生”)。在6月份,我刚就海棠案撰写了《法律 | 以海棠案为例,谈高校被处分学生的权利救济》一文,介绍了高校处分学生的限度与救济,作为一名长期关注教育行政法的律师,对于此次“Zeus泄露女生隐私”一事,我就先旗帜鲜明地表个态:大连工业大学无权开除隐私泄露事件的受害者。

并且,在此事件当中,女生作为隐私泄露事件的受害者,高校应该做的,是站出来帮助女生,而不是首先就与女生切割,乃至开除女生。在官方通报当中,高校直接公开受害者的姓名,也更是对受害女生的二次伤害。

此次事件的基本事实并不复杂:24年底,已婚已育的外国电竞选手Zeus与中国女生发生性关系,事后还将相关的私密照片及视频发布至社交平台,并将中国女性称为“Easy girl”。此外,网传涉事女生当时也有男友。近日,大连工业大学便发布了上述“拟开除学籍”的通报。

在进行更具体的法律分析之前,有必要先澄清围绕此事件的公共讨论当中经常出现的两种谬误:

一、在此事件当中,Zeus与女生双方似乎都存在出轨的情节。但需要强调的是,“出轨”属于个人感情交往的范畴,是“私德”问题,对此公众可以有自己的看法,我不予置评;可事件发展至此,高校对女生作出了“拟开除学籍”的纪律处分,事件的性质就由一个单纯的“私德”问题变成了“法律”问题。而法律对于高校作出“纪律处分”具有相当严格的规范限定,我们需要重点关注的,应当是高校作出“开除学籍”处分的合理及合法性。

二、还需要强调的是,在此事件当中,女生是隐私泄露事件的受害者。如果Zeus只是单纯对外公开了自己与女生交往的消息,那本身并不构成侵权,对此女生也需要自行承受“出轨被发现”的相关后果(比如被男友分手)。可问题在于,Zeus还公开传播了与女生的私密照片及视频,往轻了说,这是对个人隐私的侵犯,往重了说,Zeus还涉嫌传播淫秽物品罪,只不过因为跨国执法的现实困难,导致他可能难以被追责,但不代表Zeus对此就无责。也因此,在此事件当中,与其去骂女生崇洋媚外,我们中国人更应该骂的是存在侵犯隐私、传播淫秽物品及发表侮辱性言论等违法行为的Zeus。

回到大连工业大学的通报本身。

1.高校作出拟处分决定存在法律适用错误

根据大连工业大学的通报,其作出“拟开除学籍”处分的规范依据,是《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条第六款及《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第六款。

《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条:

学生有下列情形之一,学校可予退学处理:

(一)学业成绩未达到学校要求或者在学校规定的学习年限内未完成学业的;

(二)休学、保留学籍期满,在学校规定期限内未提出复学申请或者申请复学经复查不合格的;

(三)根据学校指定医院诊断,患有疾病或者意外伤残不能继续在校学习的;

(四)未经批准连续两周未参加学校规定的教学活动的;

(五)超过学校规定期限未注册而又未履行暂缓注册手续的;

(六)学校规定的不能完成学业、应予退学的其他情形。

学生本人申请退学的,经学校审核同意后,办理退学手续。

《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条:

违反公民道德和大学生行为准则者,根据其性质和情节轻重,给予以下处分:

(一)在公共场所有不文明行为,如在教室、实验室、图书馆、电梯以及其他一些公共场所乱扔垃圾、随地吐痰、吸烟、说脏话、过度亲密等行为的,经批评教育不改者,给予警告及以上处分;

(二)学习期间发生未婚性行为者,给予记过及以上处分;

(三)收藏、观看淫秽书刊、杂志、视频者,给予严重警告以上处分;制作、复制、传播、贩卖、出租淫秽物品者,或利用计算机信息网络、电话以及其他通讯工具传播淫秽信息者,给予留校察看及以上处分;

(四)接受或提供色_hexie_情服务,以及从事其他被司法机关认定为色_hexie_情行为的活动者,给予留校察看及以上处分;

(五)有滋扰、猥亵异性等流氓行为的,视情节给予记过及以上处分;

(六)与外国人不正当交往,有损国格、校誉的,视情节给予记过及以上处分;

(七)踩踏草坪,摘、折花卉、树枝,不听劝阻的,破坏草坪、花卉、树木的,视情节和认识态度,给予警告、严重警告或记过处分;

(八)在建筑物、课桌等公物上乱涂、乱写、乱画的,视情节给予警告、严重警告或记过处分;

(九)使用音响器材音量过大,影响他人正常工作或休息,不听制止的,视情节给予警告、严重警告或记过处分;

(十)有违反公民道德和大学生行为准则其他情形者,可参照本办法中类似条款或其他有关规定给予相应处分。

这里首先就暴露了“法律适用错误”的问题。

大连工业大学对女生拟作出的是“开除学籍”的纪律处分,而《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条所规定的是“退学”的相关情形。“退学”与“开除学籍”虽然都会导致学生失去学籍,但二者性质完全不同——后者属于针对违纪行为的纪律处分,是高校行使教育惩戒权的表现;而前者则属于一种中性的基于学业表现的学籍管理措施,本身并不必然包含对道德或行为过错的否定性评价。

对于开除学籍,应当援引的是《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条之规定,而大连工业大学则是援引《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条规定来作为“开除学籍”的上位法依据,故该决定本身就存在法律适用的错误。

此外值得一提的是,在通报当中,暂且不论法律适用是否正确的问题,大连工业大学对于援引相关法律条款的写法也存在明显问题:《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第三十条一共就只有两款条文,而并没有第六款,正确的写法应该是“第三十条第一款第(六)项”;相应的,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条一共就只有一款条文,而并没有第六款,正确的写法也应该是“第十九条第(六)项”。从这些细节性的错误,也足以看出大连工业大学对于高校制度合规建设的不重视。【本段内容的观点,感谢朋友孙晨曦律师的讨论与启发】

2.相关校规的合理性存疑

对于“开除学籍”的纪律处分,大连工业大学还援引了《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条作为处分依据,相应的处分情形为“与外国人不正当交往,有损国格、校誉的,视情节给予记过及以上处分”。

首先,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定的合理性本身就存在严重问题:公民享有恋爱自由与性自由,无论与中国人还是外国人交往,均属个人自由,高校无权干涉;至于交往是否“正当”,这也属“私德”问题,而并不属于第十九条开头所说的“违反公民道德”(即公德)问题;此外,对于何谓“国格”、“校誉”,其定义也相当模糊,具有极强的主观性,并且需要注意的是,在此事件当中,涉嫌女生是隐私外泄事件的受害者,故即便“有损国格、校誉”的事实成立,那么实施“有损国格、校誉”行为的人,也应当是侵犯隐私、传播淫秽物品的Zeus,而非涉事女生。相应的,高校应当将矛头对向Zeus,而不该是自己的学生。

值得一提的是,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条的其他条款也存在严重问题。例如根据第十九条第(二)项规定:“学习期间发生未婚性行为者,给予记过及以上处分。”大学生作为成年人,享有性自由的权利,高校无权仅以学生“发生未婚性行为”就给予纪律处分,这是对高校惩戒权的滥用——从个体层面来说,这是影响学生的性自由;从集体层面来说,这还会影响国家的生育率。对此,我后续将视情况向教育部、辽宁省教育厅等教育行政部门致信,在此也希望大连工业大学能够及时修正相关校规。

3.高校作出“开除学籍”处分缺乏上位法依据

前文我已论述,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定本身的合理性就存在严重问题,而在此事件当中,大连工业大学更是直接对学生作出了最顶格的纪律处分——开除学籍。

如果大连工业大学只是对女生作出“记过”或“留校察看”这类相对轻微的、不涉及学生身份丧失的纪律处分,那么通常还能以“高校自主权”为由豁免于司法审查;可问题在于,“开除学籍”作为最严厉的纪律处分,涉及学生学籍的丧失、身份的改变,直接影响学生的“受教育权”这项基本权利,因此,法律对“开除学籍”这项纪律处分具有相当严格的规定,仅能适用于法律明确规定的特定情形,高校不能随意扩大适用范围。且对此,涉事学生还可通过提起行政诉讼的方式进行权利救济。

如前所述,对于“开除学籍”,应当援引的是《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条之规定,该条规定明确列举了“可以给予开除学籍处分”的数种情形。

《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条:

学生有下列情形之一,学校可以给予开除学籍处分:

(一)违反 宪法,反对四项基本原则、破坏安定团结、扰乱社会秩序的;

(二)触犯国家法律,构成刑事犯罪的;

(三)受到治安管理处罚,情节严重、性质恶劣的;

(四)代替他人或者让他人代替自己参加考试、组织作弊、使用通讯设备或其他器材作弊、向他人出售考试试题或答案牟取利益,以及其他严重作弊或扰乱考试秩序行为的;

(五)学位论文、公开发表的研究成果存在抄袭、篡改、伪造等学术不端行为,情节严重的,或者代写论文、买卖论文的;

(六)违反本规定和学校规定,严重影响学校教育教学秩序、生活秩序以及公共场所管理秩序的;

(七)侵害其他个人、组织合法权益,造成严重后果的;

(八)屡次违反学校规定受到纪律处分,经教育不改的。

而对比《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条规定与《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定可知,《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定难以归入《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条中的任何一种违纪情形。因此,大连工业大学无权援引《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定直接对女生作出“开除学籍”处分。再退一万步来讲,如果大连工业大学确实要援引《大连工业大学学生违纪处分规定》第十九条第(六)项规定来处分女生,那么也顶多能作出“留校察看”的纪律处分,而非“开除学籍”处分。

简而言之,大连工业大学对涉事女生作出开除学籍处分,缺乏上位法依据。类似的案件,可以参考(2018)甘行终132号“西北民族大学与林某某开除学籍”一案,人民法院最终便撤销了西北民族大学对学生林某某所作出的“开除学籍”处分。

还需要注意的是,即便根据《普通高等学校学生管理规定》第五十二条之规定,也只是“可以开除”而非“应当开除”。高校作出纪律处分需遵循比例原则与程序正义,“开除学籍”作为最严厉的纪律处分,其适用应慎之又慎。在此事件当中,女生作为隐私外泄的受害者,高校应当积极维护学生权益,而非通过开除的方式进行切割。

目前,根据通报来看,对女生的“开除学籍”处分尚处于“拟作出”阶段,在此希望大连工业大学能够及时更正自己的行为,切勿作出最终正式的处分决定;若高校执意对女生作出“开除学籍”处分,我也强烈建议女生可依法提起行政诉讼,也欢迎女生联系我【我个人微信号:lawpoetry0309】和我的朋友孙晨曦律师【孙律微信号:1327871985】,我们都可以提供一些力所能及的法律帮助。

每日一语 2025.7.13

“我是荒野中的顽石,任由狂风暴雨的抽打,冷得让人不敢触碰。但我的爱是坚硬的、锋利的,可以穿透任何阻碍。即使我被碾成粉末,我也会用灰烬拥抱你。”

美国盟友携手重塑全球贸易格局,摆脱对美国依赖

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美国盟友携手重塑全球贸易格局,摆脱对美国依赖

JEANNA SMIALEK
德国茨维考的一家大众汽车工厂。特朗普总统的关税政策促使欧盟领导人寻找其他可靠的贸易伙伴。
德国茨维考的一家大众汽车工厂。特朗普总统的关税政策促使欧盟领导人寻找其他可靠的贸易伙伴。 Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times
贸易混乱正迫使美国的盟友们更加紧密地走到一起,并越来越远离美国。与此同时,欧盟正试图将自己定位为新全球贸易格局的中心。
上周末,欧盟得知从8月1日起,美国将对其征收30%的关税。欧盟执行机构主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩对此回应称,欧盟将继续致力于谈判。同时她也明确表示,尽管欧盟会将任何报复行动推迟到8月初,但仍将继续制定强有力的反制计划。
但这并不是战略的全部。像美国的许多贸易伙伴一样,欧洲也在寻找更加可靠的朋友。
冯德莱恩周日在布鲁塞尔与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托共同出席新闻发布会时表示:“我们正处于动荡时期,当经济不确定性与地缘政治动荡交织时,我们这样的伙伴必须更加紧密地团结在一起。”
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特朗普总统威胁要对包括印尼在内的多个国家征收高额关税之际,欧盟在努力放宽贸易壁垒并加深经济关系。
“在困难时期,有些国家会转向内向、孤立和分裂,”冯德莱恩表示。随后,她向那些因特朗普的关税政策而感到震惊的世界领导人含蓄地表示:“这里永远欢迎你们,你们可以信赖欧洲。”
这种分裂的画面正变得越来越典型:一方面,美国推翻数周艰苦谈判的成果,不断升级关税威胁,制造不确定性;另一方面,由27个国家组成的欧盟以及其他美国的贸易伙伴则在加强彼此联系,为一个越来越不围绕日益反复无常的美国的全球贸易体系奠定基础。
印尼总统普拉博沃在周日表示:“我们东南亚国家,尤其是印尼,确实认为欧洲在维护全球稳定方面非常、非常重要。”
要摆脱对美国的依赖并不容易,普拉博沃预测美国将始终是世界的领导者。美国拥有全球最大的经济体、繁荣的消费市场以及尖端的技术与服务。
但许多美国的贸易伙伴感觉别无选择,只能寻求多元化。虽然贸易关系难以改变,但一旦彻底重组后,也很难再恢复原状。
这就是正在发生的状况。
7月14日,特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅于马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地。
7月14日,特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅于马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
在特朗普宣布关税之前,欧盟谈判代表与美国进行了数月的反复磋商。直到本周中旬,布鲁塞尔还希望能够至少达成一项协议框架:欧盟接受10%的基础关税,但同时也会争取为关键行业争取豁免。
然而,特朗普在上周四开始暗示,作为美国最重要贸易伙伴之一的欧盟将收到一封信,信中将列出一项全面的统一关税税率。
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白宫上周五正式通知欧盟官员,他们精心制定的计划已被打乱。上周六,公众通过特朗普的社交媒体账号得知,欧盟将被征收30%的关税。
特朗普同时宣布,他将对来自墨西哥的商品征收类似的关税。加拿大的关税率略高,为35%。泰国(35%)、孟加拉国(35%)、巴西(50%)以及其他数十个美国贸易伙伴似乎也将面临类似的命运。
特朗普此前曾撤回过威胁征收的关税,他也表示愿意在8月1日关税生效前进行谈判,降低关税水平——欧盟和其他经济体也准备继续进行谈判。
但整体氛围日益敌对。
欧亚集团欧洲区董事总经理穆贾塔巴·拉赫曼表示,特朗普正在“利用不确定性”试图迫使贸易伙伴做出让步,并称最近的宣布是一次“彻底的朝令夕改”。
特朗普周六的宣布极大地加剧了欧洲内部要求强硬反击的呼声。
“特朗普正在试图分裂并恐吓欧洲,”欧洲议会美欧关系代表团的团长布兰多·贝尼菲表示。
4月,伦敦的购物人群。美国的关税促使英国和欧盟在贸易方面的关系比脱欧以来任何时候都更加紧密。
4月,伦敦的购物人群。美国的关税促使英国和欧盟在贸易方面的关系比脱欧以来任何时候都更加紧密。 Sam Bush for The New York Times
但冯德莱恩周日宣布,欧盟将等到8月初才启动早已准备好的报复性关税措施。这些关税涉及近250亿美元的商品,之前被暂停过一次,原本计划于本周二一早生效。
冯德莱恩表示:“与此同时,我们将继续准备进一步的反制措施。”
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反击只是第一步;从长远来看,与外部盟友拉近关系可能更加重要。
自从特朗普于2月开始推动重塑贸易体系以来,欧盟一直在加紧签订新的贸易协定,并深化已有的合作关系。
加拿大和欧盟已携手合作。英国在正式脱欧五年后,与欧盟关系出现缓和。欧盟正努力与印度和南非以及南美和亚洲的多个国家建立更紧密的贸易关系。
欧盟并不是唯一采取这种策略的全球主要经济体。加拿大也在拉近与东南亚的关系,而巴西和墨西哥则在努力深化彼此的联系。
官员们甚至提出建立排除美国和中国的贸易架构,中国被广泛指责通过支持其工厂导致产能过剩,向全球市场倾销廉价商品。
冯德莱恩最近表示,欧洲可以推动欧盟与一个由日本、越南和澳大利亚等11个国家组成的贸易集团开展新的合作,但该集团明显地未将美国和中国包含进来。
4月,越南胡志明市一家服装厂的生产线。全球各国正在讨论建立一个以规则为基础、排除美国在外的贸易秩序。
4月,越南胡志明市一家服装厂的生产线。全球各国正在讨论建立一个以规则为基础、排除美国在外的贸易秩序。 Linh Pham for The New York Times
分析人士指出,一个关键问题是,美国的盟友们是否会更进一步。除了彼此加强合作、排除美国,它们是否会真正联手,共同对抗美国?
布鲁塞尔经济政策研究机构布鲁盖尔高级研究员雅各布·弗恩克·柯克加德表示,大型经济体可以考虑协调对特朗普最新一轮关税的反制行动,联合起来将赋予它们更大的谈判筹码。
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“是我的话就会开始寻求协调,”他说,“这是理性的选择。”

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中俄外長議俄烏衝突 川普宣布援烏「愛國者」系統

null 周子馨
2025-07-14T04:41:50.789Z
王毅與俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫在上海會晤

(德國之聲中文網)中國外交部週日(7月13日)發布聲明稱,王毅及拉夫羅夫在會晤期間就朝鮮半島、烏克蘭危機、伊朗核問題等議題交換意見,並稱中俄是當前世界上「最穩定、最成熟、最富有戰略價值的大國關係」。

聲明稱,中俄當前的重點是深化全面戰略協作,促進各自發展振興,共同應對動盪變革世界帶來的挑戰。

拉夫羅夫此次訪中是為了出席15日在天津舉辦的上海合作組織(簡稱上合組織)外長會,本屆由中國輪值主席國。

俄羅斯外交部指出,王毅及拉夫羅夫強調將在聯合國、安理會、上合組織、金磚國家、二十國集團(G20)和亞太經合組織(APEC)等國際領域加強中俄緊密協調,雙方討論了與美國的關係以及解決烏克蘭危機的前景。

相关图集:上海合作组织组织的前世今生

在上海创立:上海合作组织(简称“上合组织”)成立于2001年,创始成员国为中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦。 2001年6月15日,六国元首签署了《上海合作组织成立宣言》和《关于打击恐怖主义、分裂主义和极端主义的上海公约》,上海合作组织正式成立。2002年6月7日,上合组织第二次首脑会晤在圣彼得堡举行。图为2002年1月中国国家主席江泽民在北京会见参加上合组织部长理事会的俄罗斯外长伊万诺夫。
中俄主导:上合组织是首次以中国城市命名的政府间国际组织。据该组织的官方信息,其宗旨是加强各成员国之间的相互信任与睦邻友好;鼓励各成员国在政治、经贸、科技、文化、教育等领域的合作;共同致力于维护和保障地区的和平、安全与稳定;建立民主、公正、合理的国际政治经济新秩序。中国和俄罗斯一直是该组织的主导力量。图为中国国家主席胡锦涛和俄罗斯总统普京2007年8月在吉尔吉斯斯坦比什凯克的上合组织峰会上。
反恐演习:9-11恐怖袭击事件发生之后不久成立的上合组织,其关注的重点议题是区域安全问题和打击恐怖主义。2003年8月,上海合作组织首次在哈萨克斯坦和中国境内举行多国联合反恐军事演习。之后每两年举行一次名为“和平使命”的联合军演。2018年8月,演习在俄罗斯举行(图)。
首度扩容:2017年6月在哈萨克斯坦的阿斯塔纳举行的上合组织峰会上,完成了该组织的首度扩容,印度和巴基斯坦正式加入,成员国数量增加到8个。图为印度总理莫迪与俄罗斯总统普京在峰会上。
上海-塔什干:上海合作组织有两个常设机构,分别是设于中国首都北京的“上合组织秘书处”,以及设于乌兹别克斯坦首都塔什干(图)的“地区反恐怖机构执行委员会”。
向中东扩展:2021年7月,上合组织峰会在塔吉克斯坦杜尚别举行(图)。当年稍后,启动接收伊朗为成员的程序,并吸收沙特阿拉伯、埃及、卡塔尔为新的对话伙伴。除这三国外,上合组织已有6个“对话伙伴”(亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、柬埔寨、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、土耳其),以及3个观察员国(阿富汗、白俄罗斯和蒙古)。
普京不可多得的舞台:2022年二月,俄罗斯发动了对乌克兰的侵略战争。上合组织成员中国和印度始终拒绝加入西方制裁俄罗斯的行列,并且增加了俄罗斯石油及天然气的购买量,帮助莫斯科缓解西方制裁的影响。出席9月在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕举行的上海合作组织峰会,成为普京在国际舞台亮相不可多得的机会,并显示其并不孤立。图为普京与习近平、蒙古国总统呼日勒苏赫在峰会上。
印度做东 线上峰会:今年的上合组织峰会的主办国是印度,会议于7月4日以线上方式举行。印度外交部官员透露,伊朗和白俄罗斯预计将在新德里峰会上加入上合组织。这是该组织成员国元首第二次线上峰会。第一次是2020年因新冠疫情影响,原定在圣彼得堡举行的峰会改为线上举行。

值得注意的是,王毅在會議上提及,中國今年將舉辦「二戰勝利」80周年紀念活動,中俄雙方要「維護二戰正確歷史敘事」。

此前,日本共同社引述消息人士報導,北京打算邀請美國總統川普在今年9月造訪北京,參加天安門閱兵;俄羅斯外交部今年2月也證實,中俄雙方在籌備互訪,有消息稱,習近平當時也邀請了普丁參加該場紀念活動。

川普預告將宣布涉俄「重大消息」

與此同時,川普週日在安德魯聯合基地(Joint Base Andrews)向媒體宣布,美國將提供烏克蘭「愛國者」防空系統,以協助其對抗俄羅斯的入侵,但並未公布確切數量。愛國者是全球最先進的防空系統之一,能夠攔截戰機、彈道飛彈和巡弋飛彈。

隨著川普對於無法推進烏克蘭和平進程日漸失去耐心,對於普丁不滿情緒也持續升高。川普預計週一在華府會晤北約秘書長呂特(Mark Rutte),討論烏克蘭等議題。

川普說:「我們會送他們(烏克蘭)愛國者系統,他們非常需要,因為普丁真的讓很多人感到意外。他講話很和氣,但晚上就開始轟炸所有人……我不喜歡這樣。」

川普表示,北約和歐盟將負擔美方提供愛國者系統的費用。他說:「我們基本上會送出各種高端的軍事裝備。他們會百分之百支付費用,這正是我們希望的方式……我們不會為此支付任何費用……這對我們來說是筆生意。」

相关图集:俄乌战争三周年

威胁加剧:2021年底的卫星图像显示,俄罗斯军队和重型武器正在俄罗斯小镇叶利尼亚(Yelnya)附近集结,该镇靠近白俄罗斯边境。2021年11月11日,美国时任国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)警告俄罗斯总统普京不要入侵乌克兰。但此举未能阻止普京。2022年2月24日普京下令对乌克兰发动全面入侵。
向乌克兰境内发动火箭弹袭击:2022年2月24日的军事行动中,多枚火箭袭击了乌克兰多座城市,包括首都基辅、敖德萨(Odesa)和哈尔科夫(Kharkiv)。基辅一座军事大楼被击中后着火。尽管莫斯科方面坚持称之“特别军事行动”,但事实上一场全面战争已经爆发。
布查大屠杀:数周之内,乌克兰军队成功将俄军赶出了北部城市。然而俄军撤离后,战争罪行浮出水面。布查(Bucha)地区的平民遭受折磨和屠杀的影像传遍了全球。当局报告称,布查地区共有超过 1100名平民被杀。调查人员表示,此次大屠杀是有计划、有针对性的“战略性”暴行。
生活被摧毁:根据莫斯科方面的说法,对乌克兰的“特别军事行动”原本只打算持续三天时间。然而三年过去了,战争仍在继续。根据智库“战争研究所”(Institute for the Study of War)的最新报告,目前俄罗斯控制着乌克兰约20%的领土,主要集中在东部。这张照片拍摄于2023年5月的顿涅茨克(Donetsk)。
“公然违反国际法”——俄罗斯在吞并地区举行“公投”:2022年9月,俄罗斯单方面吞并了乌克兰四个地区——卢甘斯克(Luhansk)、顿涅茨克(Donetsk)、扎波罗热(Zaporizhzhia)和赫尔松(Kherson),总面积约9万平方公里。一年后,这四个地区被纳入俄罗斯地区选举。在一次被称为“公然违反国际法”的投票中,普京领导的“统一俄罗斯党”在四个地区均以超过 70%的得票率获胜。
数百万人流离失所:乌克兰战争导致数百万人逃离家园,欧洲爆发自二战以来最大规模的难民潮。据联合国统计,乌克兰境内有370万人因战争流离失所,超过600万人向西逃往欧洲,主要前往波兰和德国。
马里乌波尔——乌克兰抵抗的象征:2022年,俄罗斯对乌克兰南部城市马里乌波尔(Mariupol)围攻长达82天。该市遭到猛烈轰炸,最后乌克兰守军被围困在钢铁厂内。俄罗斯轰炸一家医院后,一张孕妇被紧急撤离的照片震惊世界。这张照片由乌克兰记者拍摄,后来凭借纪录片《马里乌波尔的20天》(20 Days in Mariupol)获得奥斯卡奖。
克里米亚大桥被炸:克里米亚大桥(Crimea Bridge)全长19公里,是欧洲最长的大桥,连接俄罗斯南部与克里米亚半岛。2022年10月,乌克兰发动爆炸袭击,导致与公路桥并行的铁路桥上一货运列车上7个油罐被点燃,公路桥部分路段受损坍塌。2023年7月,克里米亚大桥再次因乌克兰军队袭击而受损。
环境灾难:2023年6月6日,卡霍夫卡大坝(Kakhovka Dam)发生爆炸,导致水库中的水涌入第聂伯河(Dnipro River)。乌克兰和俄罗斯互相指责对方实施了破坏行为,但事发时该大坝是由俄罗斯控制。这场洪水引发了一场环境灾难,摧毁了数千座房屋,可能还造成了数百人死亡。事后有记者发现,俄罗斯方面故意少报了死亡人数。
能源基础设施成为攻击目标:俄罗斯对乌克兰能源基础设施实施了系统性打击。研究人员指出,在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰一年后,乌克兰76%的热力电厂被摧毁。至2024年9月,这一比例上升至95%。此外,乌克兰电网也遭到严重破坏,导致大范围停电,尤其在冬季,大规模停电也令人道主义危机进一步加剧。
乌克兰袭击俄罗斯领土:2024年8月,乌克兰武装部队首次对俄罗斯境内发动攻势,在边境,乌军几乎没有遭遇抵抗,并一度控制了库尔斯克地区(Kursk)约1400平方公里土地。但之后,三分之二占领区域重被俄军夺回。
无人机之战:俄罗斯和乌克兰都使用无人机进行侦察、监视和定点攻击。专家表示,目前乌克兰战场上至少有100种不同类型的无人机,大小从玩具到小型飞机不等。2024年3月,乌克兰宣布,年产无人机可达400万架。
战争造成巨大破坏:三年战争给乌克兰留下了永久的伤痕。在乌克兰东部和南部,许多城镇因遭到俄军炮火袭击如今已成“鬼城”。位于顿涅茨克地区的博戈罗季奇内镇(Bohorodychne)于 2022年6月遭受俄军猛烈攻击,现在几乎成了一座空城。
生活仍在继续:并非整个乌克兰都处于战争前线。在远离战火的地方,生活仍在继续。商店、咖啡馆和餐馆照常营业,人们通过安装发电机来应对停电。
美国是否继续支持乌克兰存疑:美国总统特朗普曾表示,他希望在“24小时内”结束乌克兰战争。然而,他至今未能实现这一承诺。无论是特朗普与俄罗斯的“亲密关系”、他近期施压乌克兰让其与美国签署矿产协议,还是与乌克兰总统泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)的口水战(特朗普称其为“未经选举的独裁者”),都引发了乌克兰及其盟友对美国是否会继续支持乌克兰的担忧。

上週在羅馬舉行的一場以烏克蘭重建為主題的國際會議上,德國總理梅爾茨(Friedrich Merz,又譯默茨)表示,德國已準備好為基輔購買愛國者飛彈系統。

此外,川普上週在接受美國全國廣播公司(NBC)採訪時暗示,將於週一對俄羅斯發表「重大聲明」,但未透露更多細節。

不過,美國國會近日正準備表決一項由兩黨共同提出的制裁俄羅斯法案,希望藉此施壓俄羅斯與烏克蘭進行和平談判。華盛頓及基輔的烏克蘭支持者也引頸等待川普的表態,希望他能公開為該法案背書。

DW中文有Instagram!歡迎搜尋dw.chinese,看更多深入淺出的圖文與影音報導。

© 2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。



Bank of England prepared to cut rates if job market slows, says governor

Reuters Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey gestures with his hands as he speaks at a Bank of England meeting in July. He has short dark hair, and is wearing glasses, a dark suit and tie.Reuters

The Bank of England is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if the job market shows signs of slowing down, its governor has said.

In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey said "I really do believe the path is downward" on interest rates.

Interest rates currently stand at 4.25% and will be reviewed at the Bank's next meeting on 7 August.

They affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people.

In the Times interview, Bailey said there were consistent signs that businesses are "adjusting employment and hours" and are giving smaller pay rises following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeve's move to increase employers' national insurance contributions.

Reeves raised national insurance rates for employers from 13.8% to 15% in April this year, in a move the government estimated would generate £25bn a year.

Bailey said the UK's economy was growing behind its potential, opening up "slack" that would help to bring down ­inflation.

"I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward," the governor said.

"But we continue to use the words 'gradual and careful' because... some people say to me 'why are you cutting when inflation's above target?"'

Interest rates were held at 4.25% during the Bank's last meeting in June, following two cuts earlier in the year.

During that meeting, Bailey also said interest rates would take a "gradual downward path".

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, after also shrinking in April, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The unexpected dip was mainly driven by a drop in manufacturing, while retail sales were also "very weak", said the Office.

The UK's performance adds pressure on the government, which has made boosting economic growth a key priority.

China Is Buying Appliances and iPhones. What Happens When the Subsidies Stop?

Shoppers are taking advantage of a $42 billion government trade-in program aimed at boosting spending. But in recent weeks, some cities have started to cut back on the subsidies.

© Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

A shopping area in Beijing. Confronting a trade war with the United States, China’s government has poured $42 billion this year into a consumer trade-in program.

全球冲突不断,谁是真正的赢家?

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全球冲突不断,谁是真正的赢家?

ROSS DOUTHAT
Erin Schaff/The New York Times
当未来的历史学家研究美国外交政策的轨迹时,他们可能会把2020年以来的所有重大事件——我们从阿富汗的仓皇撤军、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,以及以色列在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的冲突——纳入一个关于全球冲突的统一叙述。
如果我们幸运的话,那么这一切最终将催生出一些学术论文,标题可能会是《经受考验的帝国——美国与世界,2021-2030》。如果我们不幸的话——也就是说,如果美国和中国最终陷入一场毁灭性的战争——那么乌克兰和中东的斗争将被后人倒推性地归入第三次世界大战中。
到目前为止,我们还没有陷入那样的战火纷飞之境地。但对美国人来说,以全球视野审视时局是有益的,俄罗斯、伊朗和中国组成的修正主义联盟正在考验我们的帝国力量。同样重要的是要认识到,这种冲突是对耐力的考验,是一条漫长而曲折的道路,在这条道路上,很容易受情绪波动的影响,让人过早地去下定论。
在过去的几年里,我们经历了很多这样的波动。在2021年和2022年初,阿富汗的溃败和我们对脆弱的乌克兰的过度承诺让美国看起来毫无作为……直到普京悍然入侵邻国,这时,随着俄军受挫以及我们成功地为乌克兰人争取到支持,又令自由民主优越论与美国霸权永续说甚嚣尘上。
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这种乐观情绪一直持续到乌克兰最后一次重大反攻的失败,以及哈马斯在2023年10月7日对以色列的袭击,在那一刻,人们又回到了悲观情绪。美国的力量已经捉襟见肘;我们的以色列盟友被敌人打了个措手不及,俄罗斯人正在夺回阵地,我们的武器库几乎肯定不足以保护乌克兰和以色列,也不足以保卫台湾,而所有这一切都发生在一位因年事已高而衰弱的总统任内,他是帝国摇摇欲坠的严峻象征。
这种多战线的危机感帮助特朗普重新掌权。然后,在他执政最初的几个月曾引发担忧,他会通过事实上的投降来结束全球冲突——抛弃盟友、与独裁者做交易,并退守北美堡垒。
然而,目前的情况并非如此。特朗普轰炸伊朗核计划的决定,以及伊朗的沉默回应,为德黑兰的地区影响力在以色列的连番打击下走向崩塌做了一个收场。与此同时,我们的北约盟友正在增加军费开支,特朗普突然对北约表示赞赏,而俄罗斯在乌克兰取得的进展仍然是一场代价高昂的苦战,普京有可能错失了他可能得到的最好的协议。再加上美国经济的强劲表现,即使在特朗普发动贸易战的情况下,我们似乎又在赢得这场全球冲突。“好哇!美国治下的和平永世长存!”
好吧,并不尽然。对伊朗核项目的破坏并不意味着我们已经消除了威胁,以色列的加沙战争仍然是一场人道主义危机,没有明确的政治结局。特朗普撤回了国防部通过不向乌克兰提供武器来分配资源的做法,但这并不能改变我们的武器有限、确实需要资源调配的现实。普京未能充分利用特朗普的外交接触,但这并不能改变俄罗斯仍在缓慢取得进展的事实。
但是,乌克兰的僵局和伊朗的后撤都清楚地提醒人们,这场冲突的最终结果取决于尚未直接参战的修正主义强国——中华人民共和国。与俄罗斯或伊朗相比,中国是美国更大的竞争对手,同时也是一个极其谨慎的参与者,它满足于看着自己心照不宣的盟友发挥作用,却不会——举例来说——向伊朗提供核威慑,也不派遣人民解放军帮助俄罗斯攻占基辅。
这种谨慎的距离感可能反映了修正主义集团的一个根本弱点——它纯粹是一种政权之间的利益联盟,彼此互不信任,没有我们与欧洲和东亚盟友那样多的共同点,也难以有效地协同工作。
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但这也可能折射出中国方面的一种信心,它认为时间在它这一边,它在技术和能源方面的投资很快就会超过我们,而我们现在的所有努力,不过是对北京在2020年代末战略布局的致命浪费。
在不清楚这些战略底牌的情况下,美国外交政策既需要更好的长远战略来保持对中国的领先地位,也需要大量特朗普式的短期灵活性。不是单纯的克制或鹰派,而是要兼具和平诚意与开战能力,方能驾驭这场不会有简单结局的全球冲突之此消彼长。

Ross Douthat自2009年起一直在时报担任观点版面的专栏作者。他著有多本书,最近的一本是《The Deep Places: A Memoir of Illness and Discovery》。欢迎在FacebookTwitter上关注他。

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特朗普关税冲击下,亚洲国家正在寻找新贸易伙伴

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特朗普关税冲击下,亚洲国家正在寻找新贸易伙伴

LYDIA DEPILLIS
特朗普的关税政策让全球商业和政治领袖感到困惑。
特朗普的关税政策让全球商业和政治领袖感到困惑。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
对于上周收到特朗普总统威胁征收高额关税信函的大多数国家,尤其是那些经济以供应美国市场为主的亚洲国家而言,它们几乎找不到明显的替代出口目的地。
但它们正在尽力寻找。

尽管各国政府不断派遣特使往返华盛顿,提出新的采购计划和改革承诺,但白宫仍坚持征收新关税,这一做法令全球商界和政界领导人深感困惑。特朗普正在设置新的贸易壁垒,要求各国在8月1日前做出重大让步,声称美国多年来因进口大于出口而蒙受损失。

马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣周三在东南亚领导人的峰会上表示:“在世界各地,曾经用于推动增长的工具如今却被用来施压、孤立和遏制。面对外部压力,我们需要巩固自身基础。加强彼此贸易,增加相互投资。”
马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣上周三表示:“面对外部压力,我们需要巩固自身基础。”
马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣上周三表示:“面对外部压力,我们需要巩固自身基础。” Vincent Thian/Associated Press
此类努力已初现端倪。韩国新任总统李在明已向澳大利亚和德国派遣特使讨论防务和贸易问题,并计划向其他多国派出代表团。巴西和印度宣布计划将双边贸易额提高70%,至200亿美元。
印度尼西亚表示即将与欧盟达成协议,将双方大部分关税降至零。而在越南(特朗普称其在收到上周的信函前已接受对其输美商品征收20%的关税),该国贸易部副部长强调,正在努力通过利用其他贸易协议来减少对美国消费者的依赖。

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亚洲协会政策研究所副所长温迪·卡特勒表示:“随着越来越多的国家感到满足美国的要求越来越难,它们与其他国家合作的兴趣将会增强。”

当长期关系恶化时,各国寻求其他合作伙伴早有诸多先例。
在特朗普总统的首个任期内,中国通过减少购买美国大豆来报复美国关税。巴西填补了这一空缺,如今已成为中国大豆的主要供应国,让美国农民面临大豆产量过剩、买家不足的困境。

2017年,中国因韩国同意部署美国反导系统而抵制韩国商品,这严重打击了依赖中国市场的韩国消费品和旅游业。作为应对,韩国扩大了与印尼、马来西亚和越南的贸易和投资。
由于亚洲国家此前已在努力推进消费者的多样化,因此当前的推动力并非全新。但该地区距离无缝整合仍遥远。例如,韩国一直拒绝加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》,该贸易协定的缘起是2016年各国与美国贸易谈判的破裂
韩国经济学家、前贸易谈判代表崔炳镒(音)一直竭力主张韩国加入这项协定,它的邻国日本已签署该协定。华盛顿的新敌意最终可能使其成为可能,而且韩国总统李在明在竞选期间对日本的态度比许多人预期的要更为友善。
“日韩曾自认是美国坚定可靠的盟友,但唐纳德·特朗普并不看重盟友,”崔炳镒说。“所以日本急于获得更重要的成员身份,而韩国新政府则表示,‘为了国家利益,我们可以采取任何措施。’”
美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥本月与日本外务大臣(左)及韩国外交部副部长举行会晤。特朗普政府正在设立新的贸易壁垒,并要求多个国家做出让步。
美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥本月与日本外务大臣(左)及韩国外交部副部长举行会晤。特朗普政府正在设立新的贸易壁垒,并要求多个国家做出让步。 Pool photo by Mandel Ngan
最新的关税攻势来袭之际,中国也在向全球倾销廉价商品以维持其出口导向型增长。汽车、电器、电子产品和纺织品的供过于求使得中国的邻国更难找到自己的市场定位。
其中一些国家可能会受益于特朗普政府阻止中国商品通过其他国家进入美国港口的决心。中国企业已经开始在东南亚设厂,以寻求更低的劳动力成本,新协议也可能鼓励它们将更多供应链设在中国以外。受中国竞争及当前关税双重挤压的本地区企业,可能会努力提高生产力并保持市场份额。
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东盟与东亚经济研究所高级经济学家迪奥尼西乌斯·纳乔科表示:“它们可以提高效率,或许投资新技术,在一些工厂实现数字化以降低成本。这样出口可能会更便宜,从而在新市场甚至美国市场变得更具竞争力。”
为了增加国民收入,东南亚发展中国家仍需培育更多本土企业。仅充当大国的加工厂是不够的。这需要稳定的领导力和专注的投资,韩国和日本就是通过这种方式成长为制造业强国的。
例如,尽管目前以日本企业为主的公司在泰国年产汽车超百万辆,韩国巨头三星在越南生产大量手机,但这些东南亚国家仍相对贫穷。
韩国产业经济与贸易研究所高级研究员金东洙(音)指出:“它们需要吸收外国直接投资中的部分产业技术。众所周知,这是个问题,但并非所有政府都能摆脱这个困境。”
最终,对于那些成为特朗普关税运动的目标国家来说,若能做出一个更具集体性的回应可能是有利的。到目前为止,这种情况尚未实现,因为世界各国领导人仍在努力为本国争取更优惠的待遇。甚至日益壮大的金砖国家联盟(它在里约热内卢举行了峰会,并欢迎印度尼西亚成为正式成员,引发了特朗普的不满)也尚未采取任何行动抵制美国的关税。
到目前为止,金砖国家联盟尚未采取任何集体行动来抵制美国的关税措施。
到目前为止,金砖国家联盟尚未采取任何集体行动来抵制美国的关税措施。 Pablo Porciuncula/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“我尚未看到东南亚国家试图联合起来形成统一战线的迹象,”墨尔本大学亚洲研究所助理教授亚历山大·海德说。但如果当前的动荡局面持续下去,这种情况可能会改变。
“美国正在相当迅速地试图瓦解它自己建立的体系,这让很多人感到惊讶,”海德说。
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Choe Sang-Hun自首尔、Ana Swanson自华盛顿、艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)自印尼雅加达、Tung Ngo自越南河内对本文有报道贡献。

Lydia DePillis报道美国经济。她自2008年以来一直从事新闻工作,可以通过电子邮件与她联系:lydia.depillis@nytimes.com.

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The 'strongman' PM who inspired Trump's playbook - but now finds his power crumbling

BBC Two treated images, with Orban at the forefront, and Trump and Vance as smaller figures behindBBC

Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".

Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".

"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.

Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.

But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?

Attila Kisbenedek via Getty A mass of people at Budapest pride, with a large LGBT flag being carried by the crowdAttila Kisbenedek via Getty
Thousands of people turned out for Budapest Pride in defiance of the ban

And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.

As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.

A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle

Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.

This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.

Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.

Janos Kummer/Getty Images Peter Magyar holds the Hungarian flag at a campaign rally Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Peter Magyar appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024

Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.

Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.

Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.

The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.

Orban's tried-and-tested strategy

Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.

In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Reuters/Lisa Leutner Someone with a mask of a treated image of Orban on the back of their head, with a LGBT flag in the backgroundReuters/Lisa Leutner
Viktor Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010

A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.

Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.

After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.

In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"

A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.

The winner takes all

Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.

While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.

He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.

Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty A dated image of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban answering questions during a press conference Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental

In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".

Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".

How he won over world leaders

Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.

Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.

Reuters/Carlos Barria Orban and Trump shaking handsReuters/Carlos Barria
Trump has said of Orban: "They call him a strong man. He's a tough person"

The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).

Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."

But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.

Are cracks starting to appear?

Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.

He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.

"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.

Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.

Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.

Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.

SOPA Images via Getty People celebrate at Budapest pride, some are wearing bright clothing and waving flagsSOPA Images via Getty
Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years

But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.

Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."

Battle for the soul of Hungary

Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.

"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.

The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.

"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.

In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.

Valery Sharifulin via Getty Orban and Putin shake hands Valery Sharifulin via Getty
He depicts his good relations with Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil

Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.

"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.

Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)

But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".

He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."

As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.

Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty

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Europe's freedom faces greatest 'threat' since WW2, says Macron

Reuters France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech to army leaders. He is standing in front of a French and EU flag and is gesturing with his left hand as he speaks. Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.

In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.

Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.

Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".

Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.

In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.

"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.

Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".

He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".

Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.

The UK also announced its own defence review, with Defence Secretary John Healey saying it would send a "message to Moscow".

On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".

Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.

Southend airport to remain closed after fireball plane crash

Frazer Brooks Thick dark smoke is billowing into the blue sky from the incident - which cannot be seen in the image. Frazer Brooks
The East of England Ambulance Service and Essex County Fire and Rescue Service were also at the scene

An aircraft has crashed at London Southend Airport, police have confirmed.

Essex Police said it was alerted to a 12-metre plane on fire at the site in Southend-on-Sea shortly before 16:00 BST on Sunday.

The East of England Ambulance Service said four crews were at the scene including a rapid response vehicle, a hazardous area response vehicle and a senior paramedic.

The Labour MP for Southend West and Leigh, David Burton-Sampson, said on X: "My thoughts are with everyone involved."

Police said, as a precaution, officers have evacuated the Rochford Hundred Golf Club and Westcliff Rugby Club due to its proximity to the incident.

Contributed A photo of a screen in the airport with flight departures. There is one to Alicante, Faro and Palma de Mallorca. All three say cancelled. Contributed
Following the crash all flights from Southend Airport have been cancelled

A spokesperson for Essex Police said: "We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

"We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues."

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said it was called to the incident at 15:58.

The service has asked people to avoid the area if possible.

A spokesperson said: "Crews from Southend (two), Rayleigh Weir and Basildon (two), along with off-road vehicles from Billericay and Chelmsford attended.

"We are continuing to work at the scene with our emergency services and aviation partners."

The 'strongman' PM who inspired Trump's playbook - but now finds his power crumbling

BBC Two treated images, with Orban at the forefront, and Trump and Vance as smaller figures behindBBC

Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".

Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".

"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.

Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.

But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?

Attila Kisbenedek via Getty A mass of people at Budapest pride, with a large LGBT flag being carried by the crowdAttila Kisbenedek via Getty
Thousands of people turned out for Budapest Pride in defiance of the ban

And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.

As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.

A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle

Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.

This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.

Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.

Janos Kummer/Getty Images Peter Magyar holds the Hungarian flag at a campaign rally Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Peter Magyar appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024

Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.

Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.

Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.

The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.

Orban's tried-and-tested strategy

Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.

In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Reuters/Lisa Leutner Someone with a mask of a treated image of Orban on the back of their head, with a LGBT flag in the backgroundReuters/Lisa Leutner
Viktor Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010

A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.

Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.

After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.

In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"

A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.

The winner takes all

Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.

While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.

He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.

Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty A dated image of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban answering questions during a press conference Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty
Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental

In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".

Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".

How he won over world leaders

Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.

Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.

Reuters/Carlos Barria Orban and Trump shaking handsReuters/Carlos Barria
Trump has said of Orban: "They call him a strong man. He's a tough person"

The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).

Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."

But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.

Are cracks starting to appear?

Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.

He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.

"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.

Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.

Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.

Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.

SOPA Images via Getty People celebrate at Budapest pride, some are wearing bright clothing and waving flagsSOPA Images via Getty
Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years

But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.

Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."

Battle for the soul of Hungary

Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.

"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.

The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.

"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.

In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.

Valery Sharifulin via Getty Orban and Putin shake hands Valery Sharifulin via Getty
He depicts his good relations with Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil

Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.

"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.

Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)

But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".

He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."

As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.

Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty

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Europe's freedom faces greatest 'threat' since WW2, says Macron

Reuters France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech to army leaders. He is standing in front of a French and EU flag and is gesturing with his left hand as he speaks. Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.

In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.

Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.

Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".

Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.

In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.

"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.

Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".

He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".

Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.

The UK also announced its own defence review, with Defence Secretary John Healey saying it would send a "message to Moscow".

On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".

Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.

The deepening water shortage row between the US and Mexico

BBC Water in Lake Toronto reservoir are very lowBBC
Water levels in Lake Toronto, a reservoir in the north of Mexico, are said to be critically low

After the thirtieth consecutive month without rain, the townsfolk of San Francisco de Conchos in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua gather to plead for divine intervention.

On the shores of Lake Toronto, the reservoir behind the state's most important dam – called La Boquilla, a priest leads local farmers on horseback and their families in prayer, the stony ground beneath their feet once part of the lakebed before the waters receded to today's critically low levels.

Among those with their heads bowed is Rafael Betance, who has voluntarily monitored La Boquilla for the state water authority for 35 years.

"This should all be underwater," he says, motioning towards the parched expanse of exposed white rocks.

"The last time the dam was full and caused a tiny overflow was 2017," Mr Betance recalls. "Since then, it's decreased year on year.

"We're currently at 26.52 metres below the high-water mark, less than 14% of its capacity."

Volunteer water monitor Rafael Betance looks at the camera, standing in front of very parched-looking countryside
Rafael Betance says that water levels in the reservoir have fallen for the past eight years

Little wonder the local community is beseeching the heavens for rain. Still, few expect any let up from the crippling drought and sweltering 42C (107.6F) heat.

Now, a long-running dispute with Texas over the scarce resource is threatening to turn ugly.

Under the terms of a 1944 water-sharing agreement, Mexico must send 430 million cubic metres of water per year from the Rio Grande to the US.

The water is sent via a system of tributary channels into shared dams owned and operated by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees and regulates water-sharing between the two neighbours.

In return, the US sends its own much larger allocation (nearly 1.85 billion cubic metres a year) from the Colorado River to supply the Mexican border cities of Tijuana and Mexicali.

Mexico is in arrears and has failed to keep up with its water deliveries for much of the 21st Century.

The US and Mexico have a long-standing water sharing agreement

Following pressure from Republican lawmakers in Texas, the Trump administration warned Mexico that water could be withheld from the Colorado River unless it fulfils its obligations under the 81-year-old treaty.

In April, on his Truth Social account, US President Donald Trump accused Mexico of "stealing" the water and threatened to keep escalating to "TARIFFS, and maybe even SANCTIONS" until Mexico sends Texas what it owes. Still, he gave no firm deadline by when such retaliation might happen.

For her part, the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, acknowledged Mexico's shortfall but struck a more conciliatory tone.

Since then, Mexico has transferred an initial 75 million cubic metres of water to the US via their shared dam, Amistad, located along the border, but that is just a fraction of the roughly 1.5 billion cubic metres of Mexico's outstanding debt.

Feelings on cross-border water sharing can run dangerously high: in September 2020, two Mexican people were killed in clashes with the National Guard at La Boquilla's sluice gates as farmers tried to stop the water from being redirected.

Amid the acute drought, the prevailing view in Chihuahua is that "you can't take from what isn't there", says local expert Rafael Betance.

But that doesn't help Brian Jones to water his crops.

A fourth-generation farmer in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, for the past three years he has only been able to plant half of his farm because he doesn't have enough irrigation water.

"We've been battling Mexico as they've not been living up to their part of the deal," he says. "All we're asking for is what's rightfully ours under the treaty, nothing extra."

Mr Jones also disputes the extent of the problem in Chihuahua. He believes that in October 2022 the state received more than enough water to share, but released "exactly zero" to the US, accusing his neighbours of "hoarding water and using it to grow crops to compete with us".

Farmers on the Mexican side read the agreement differently. They say it only binds them to send water north when Mexico can satisfy its own needs, and argue that Chihuahua's ongoing drought means there's no excess available.

Beyond the water scarcity, there are also arguments over agricultural efficiency.

Walnut trees and alfalfa are two of the main crops in Chihuahua's Rio Conchos Valley, both of which require a lot of watering – walnut trees need on average 250 litres a day.

Traditionally, Mexican farmers have simply flooded their fields with water from the irrigation channel. Driving around the valley one quickly sees walnut trees sitting in shallow pools, the water flowing in from an open pipe.

The complaint from Texas is obvious: the practice is wasteful and easily avoided with more responsible and sustainable farming methods.

A field of walnut trees in
Many Mexican walnut farmers flood their fields with irrigation water

As Jaime Ramirez walks through his walnut groves, the former mayor of San Francisco de Conchos shows me how his modern sprinkler system ensures his walnut trees are properly watered all year round without wasting the precious resource.

"With the sprinklers, we use around 60% less than flooding the fields," he says. The system also means they can water the trees less frequently, which is particularly useful when the Rio Conchos is too low to allow local irrigation.

Mr Ramirez readily admits, though, that some of his neighbours aren't so conscientious. As a former local mayor, he urges understanding.

Some haven't adopted the sprinkler method because of the costs in setting it up, he says. He's tried to show other farmers that it works out cheaper in the long run, saving on energy and water costs.

But farmers in Texas must also understand that their counterparts in Chihuahua are facing an existential threat, Mr Ramirez insists.

Jaime Ramirez touching one of his walnut trees
Walnut farmer Jaime Ramirez admits that some of his neighbours are wasteful with water

"This is a desert region and the rains haven't come. If the rain doesn't come again this year, then next year there simply won't be any agriculture left. All the available water will have to be conserved as drinking water for human beings," he warns.

Many in northern Mexico believe the 1944 water-sharing treaty is no longer fit for purpose. Mr Ramirez thinks it may have been adequate for conditions eight decades ago, but it has failed to adapt with the times or properly account for population growth or the ravages of climate change.

Back across the border, Texan farmer Brian Jones says the agreement has stood the test of time and should still be honoured.

"This treaty was signed when my grandfather was farming. It's been through my grandfather, my father and now me," he says.

"Now we're seeing Mexico not comply. It's very angering to have a farm where I'm only able to plant half the ground because I don't have irrigation water."

Trump's tougher stance has given the local farmers "a pep in our step", he adds.

Meanwhile, the drought hasn't just harmed farming in Chihuahua.

With Lake Toronto's levels so low, Mr Betance says the remaining water in the reservoir is heating up with uncommon speed and creating a potential disaster for the marine life which sustains a once-thriving tourism industry.

The valley's outlook hasn't been this dire, Mr Betance says, in the entire time he's spent carefully recording the lake's ups and downs. "Praying for rain is all we have left," he reflects.

Additional reporting by Angélica Casas.

'Royal peace talks' and 'Sinner takes it all'

The headline on the front page of the Sun reads: “Time to clear the heir, papa”.’
"Time to clear the heir, papa" says the front page of The Sun, reporting on the so-called "peace summit" between aides of the King and Prince Harry.
The headline on the front page of the Daily Mirror reads: “King backs Harry peace talks”.
The Mirror also leads with what it's called a "royal exclusive" with the headline "King backs Harry peace talks", however, the paper warns "huge obstacles remain". The Princess of Wales is pictured alongside her daughter, Princess Charlotte, fanning themselves in the royal box at Wimbledon on Sunday. They watched Jannick Sinner beat Carlos Alcaraz in four sets in the men's final.
The headline on the front page of the Guardian reads: “Warning over Israeli 'ethnic cleansing' plan for Gaza”.
A beaming photo of the Wimbledon champion clutching his new Wimbledon trophy, features on the Guardian's front page, with the headline "Sinner's redemption". Their main story says former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has warned of an "ethnic cleansing" plan for Gaza, with Olmert suggesting that a proposed humanitarian city in Rafah would be tantamount to a "concentration camp". Israel has previously denied all allegations of ethnic cleansing in Gaza.
The headline on the front page of the Times reads: “Bank could cut rates if job markets slows down”.
Sinner is pictured kissing the golden Wimbledon trophy on the front page of The Times. Its lead story is a warning from the governor of the Bank of England that it could make larger cuts to interest rates if the UK jobs market slows down.
The headline on the front page of the Daily Telegraph reads: “Tax raid looms for middle classes”.
"Tax raid looms for middle classes", warns The Daily Telegraph. The paper quotes Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander promising not put up taxes for people on "modest incomes" and saying Labour would base its policy on "fairness".
The headline on the front page of the Financial Times reads: “Germany urges weapons suppliers to speed up European rearmament”.’
"Germany urges weapons suppliers to speed up European rearmament" reads the The Financial Times' headline. The FT has interviewed German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who is calling for weapons production to increase as Europe seeks to deter Russian aggression. The front page image shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shaking hands with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, after pledging "unconditional support" for the Kremlin's goals in the war in Ukraine over the weekend.
The headline on the front page of the Metro reads: “Politicians? We don't trust any of you”.’
The Metro states "Politicians? We don't trust any of you". Its lead story says 90% of people questioned in a poll said they had little to no faith in the political class. The most common word they used to describe the UK was "broken".
The headline on the front page of the Daily Mail reads: “Labour's doctors strike hypocrisy”.
The Daily Mail's headline is "Labour's doctors strike hypocrisy" as it turns its attention to the proposed strike by resident doctors. The paper says the government's Employment Rights Bill would make future strikes even easier with the repealing of the minimum turnout requirement for trade unions. A government spokesperson told the paper the bill represents the "biggest upgrade to workers' rights in a generation".
The headline on the front page of the Daily Express reads: “'Toothless' new sex abuse laws won't protect children”.’
The headline of the Daily Express warns "'Toothless' new sex abuse laws won't protect children". The Joint Committee on Human Rights - made up of MPs and peers - has said a proposed new Crime and Policing Bill could be "ineffective" if there are no criminal repercussions for people who fail to report child sex abuse. A Home Office spokesperson told the paper the introduction of mandatory reporting will mark a "significant step" in strengthening child protection by creating "a culture of openness".
The headline on the front page of the Independent reads: “Measles surge fears for summer holidays after child dies amid low jab uptake”.
The i newspaper leads with a "measles surge". It reports doctors and health chiefs are warning that cases in the UK could rise as people return from holidays in France, Spain and Italy. It is after a child died at a Liverpool hospital after contracting the disease.
The headline on the front page of the Daily Star reads: “School Jollydays”.’
"School jollydays" exclaims the Daily Star. It reports there will be a fourth heatwave, with temperatures predicted to hit 31C later this month.
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Samuel Abt, Tour de France Writer for 30 Years, Dies at 91

He wrote about the elite cycling race for The New York Times and The International Herald Tribune. He said he was smitten by the Tour from the first day.

© Tim De Waele/Getty Images

Samuel Abt in 2001. An editor for several newspapers before joining The New York Times, he went to Paris to work for The International Herald Tribune. There that he discovered the beauty of bicycle racing,

South Africa's police minister suspended over organised crime allegations

Gallo Images via Getty Images South Africa's Police Minister Senzo Mchunu. Photo: 13 June 2025Gallo Images via Getty Images
Senzo Mchunu denies all the allegations against him

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has placed Police Minister Senzo Mchunu on an immediate "leave of absence" after allegations of links to organised crimes were made against him.

In Sunday's live televised speech to the nation, Ramaphosa also announced a judicial commission would probe the claims, which he said undermined the constitution and threatened national security.

He added that law professor Firoz Cachalia had been appointed as interim police minister.

Mchunu denied any wrongdoing, saying in a statement that he "stood ready to respond to the accusations" against him.

In his speech, the president said that the allegations against Mchunu, which include interference in investigations into political killings and corruption within law enforcement agencies, "call for an urgent and comprehensive investigation".

He said the judicial commission, led by the country's deputy chief justice, would examine all the claims.

The commission will also investigate current and former police officials, as well as members of the national executive, Ramaphosa said.

Ramaphosa has been under growing public pressure to act swiftly over the high-profile case.

Mchunu, 67, is an influential figure in Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) party.

Political analysts have suggested he could run for a leadership position at the ANC's next elective conference in 2027.

In a statement, Mchunu said: "I welcome and respect the president's decision and pledge my commitment to the process.

"Honour and integrity are the virtues I personally subscribe to and which we all need to make efforts to uphold."

The allegations were first made public by KwaZulu-Natal provincial police boss Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi last Sunday.

He claimed Mchunu was receiving financial support from an allegedly corrupt businessman to fund his "political endeavours".

Gen Mkhwanazi also detailed a sequence of events he claimed led to the "orchestrated" disbandment of a task force that was set up in 2018 to investigate the killing of politicians, mainly in KwaZulu-Natal.

He said the team's investigations had uncovered links to high-profile individuals - including politicians, police officials, and businesspeople tied to a drug cartel syndicate - and this is why the team was disbanded.

When he dissolved the unit earlier this year, Mchunu said it was not adding value in the province, despite many cases remaining unsolved.

According to Gen Mkhwanazi, a total of 121 case files were allegedly removed from the unit on the minister's instruction and without the authorisation of his boss, the national police commissioner Gen Fannie Masemola.

"These case dockets have, since March, been sitting at the head office ever since without any investigation work done on them. Five of these dockets already had instructions to [effect] arrests," Gen Mkhwanazi said.

He also alleged Mchunu had ties to a controversial businessman who was "financially supporting" the minister's political career.

Vusimuzi Matlala had a lucrative contract with the police before it was abruptly cancelled when he was arrested for attempted murder in May. Gen Mkhwanazi shared copies of text messages and a payment allegedly made by Mr Matlala to prove this.

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