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防长警告兵推“每次都输”:美军机密报告预测台海开战中国将获胜 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

15/12/2025 - 01:59

法国BFM电视财经台周日(12月14日)针对台海危机专题报道称,根据《纽约时报》披露的一份机密文件,美国军方在保卫台湾时可能会失败,并且在与中国的军事对抗中遭遇险境。其尖端装备,特别是其最大的航空母舰,面临被摧毁的风险。

法国BFM电视财经台报道指,美国对自身的军事实力产生了疑虑。在五角大楼围绕台湾进行的战争模拟中,“我们每次都输”给中国,如今在美国总统特朗普手下担任国防部长的赫格塞斯去年曾直言不讳地发出这样的警告。而这一次,警报来自一份名为《Overmatch Brief》的机密文件,该报告于本周由《纽约时报》披露。

根据这份国防部在2021年提交给白宫的机密文件,该文件基于与中国对抗的兵推情景,美国军方在保卫台湾时的风险极高,并可能导致军事失败。据《纽约时报》报道,当时拜登总统的一位高级国家安全顾问审阅了这些桌面兵推的结果。据一位目击者称,这位官员在意识到局势的严峻程度后“脸色煞白”。

这位官员向《纽约时报》透露,他惊愕地说:“对于我们手中的每一个计策,中国人都有重复的备用方案。”

如何解释世界上最强大的军队会受到中国的威胁?这份报告描绘了一幅不利的权力平衡图景,并强调美国这个超级大国实际上被其自身耗资巨大的武器库蒙蔽了双眼。五角大楼依赖技术先进但极其昂贵的武器系统,而中国则专注于大规模生产廉价武器系统。桌面兵推结果既简单又令人震惊:北京拥有无数种替代方案,可以替代美国自认为拥有的每一种军事资产。

航母“福特号”的脆弱性

报告特别引起美国决策者对其尖端装备脆弱性的关注。报告尤其警告说,中国凭借其600枚高超音速导弹,可能在“福特号”(Gerald R. Ford)航空母舰——美国海军的旗舰——尚未抵达台湾之前就将其摧毁。

“福特号”航母于2017年服役,目前部署在加勒比海,造价高达130亿美元。该舰能够搭载四个中队的战斗机和5000名水兵,被设计为美国海军战略的核心要素。“福特号”是世界上最先进的航空母舰,象征着美国对全球所有海洋的霸权。

《纽约时报》略带讥讽地评论道:“在《Overmatch》报告所述的军事推演中,像‘福特号’这样的舰船经常被摧毁。然而,海军计划在未来几十年内再建造至少九艘‘福特’级航母。而到目前为止,美国甚至还没有部署任何高超音速导弹。” 纽时将其称之为“概念上的失败”。

法媒报道也同样地提及这份机密报告表明,“五角大楼过度依赖昂贵且易受攻击的武器,而其对手却正在部署廉价且技术先进的武器”。

美国的防御部署主要是为对付较弱的对手而设计的,因此“不可避免地容易受到新型攻击形式的打击”。这份机密报告还强调,美国目前缺乏以支持与大国进行长期冲突所需的速度生产武器和弹药的能力。更何况,美国已投入资源支持乌克兰和以色列。

“不可持续的美国防务战略”

这一结论主要得到了来自乌克兰前线反馈的支持。近年来,要求对美国军事战略进行深刻改革的呼声日益增多。

2023年,为美军提供咨询的兰德公司(Rand Corporation)智库估计,“美国的战略和防御部署已变得不可持续”。该智库认为:“自冷战结束以来,这项战略一直依赖于在全球部署压倒性武力,以彻底击败任何敌人。但多年的战争模拟却表明,这种方法在面对中国,甚至俄罗斯时,都是无效的。”

华盛顿现在正试图迎头赶上:国会已拨款10亿美元用于生产34万架小型无人机,特朗普也任命了一位“无人机首席战略顾问”来监督这项工作。不过,专家警告说,美国永远无法在成本效益方面战胜中国,因为中国的工资更低,监管也更宽松。

法国BFM电视财经台指出,自重返执政以来,特朗普一直对其在台湾受到攻击时支持台湾的决心保持模糊。11月初,他声称习近平理解中国“入侵台湾的后果”,但拒绝明确说明美国是否会进行干预。

另值得关注的是,不同于这份美军机密报告的推论,由美国智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)在2023年发布的其他模拟,则得出结论认为,如果发生冲突,美国将占优势。在改智库所研究的24个情景中,美国、台湾和日本在大多数情况下都成功击退了中国的常规两栖入侵,但代价是“巨大的人员和财务成本

2027真相之年?

对中国领导人习近平而言,台湾回归中国大陆是“历史的必然”。报道称,他设定了2027年的最后期限,并命令军队做好大规模两栖作战的准备。

但也有分析人士认为,习近平只有在确信能够迅速取得压倒性胜利时才会采取行动;失败将意味着他领导中国政府的终结。

Russia poses acute threat, new MI6 chief to warn

UK Foreign Office/AP Frontal portrait of Blaise Metreweli. She is looking at the camera against a white background. UK Foreign Office/AP
Blaise Metreweli is the first woman to head Britain's overseas spy agency

The new chief of MI6, Blaise Metreweli, will warn of "the acute threat posed by Russia" when she makes her first public speech later.

She will highlight so-called hybrid warfare, which includes incidents such as cyber attacks and drones suspected of being launched near critical infrastructure by Russian proxies.

Ms Metreweli will describe this as "an acute threat posed by an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist Russia".

Referring to the war in Ukraine, she will insist that Britain will be keeping up the pressure on President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine's behalf.

Ms Metreweli, who took over as head of the Secret Intelligence Service in the autumn, is the first woman to head Britain's overseas spy agency. She took over from Sir Richard Moore on 1 October.

Monday's speech will point to the recent sanctioning of Russian entities accused of conducting information warfare, as well as two China-based companies sanctioned for their "indiscriminate cyber activities against the UK and its allies".

Western sanctions have certainly damaged Russia's economy, driving its exports eastwards towards China and India. But they have singularly failed to change President Putin's determination to wage war on Ukraine until it gives in to his demands for territory and ultimately, loyalty to Moscow.

It is also clear from Ms Metreweli's speech that a special area of interest for the new spy chief is technology.

Having joined MI6 in 1999, she has arrived at the top job via Q Branch. Named after the fictional MI6 division in Ian Fleming's spy books, this is the real life, in-house, top secret part of the Secret Intelligence Service that designs the sorts of gadgets and gizmos that enable agents to communicate with their handlers, without being detected and caught.

In her speech later she is expected to call on all her intelligence officers to master technology, "not just in our labs, but in the field, in our tradecraft.. We must be as comfortable with lines of [computer] code as we are with human sources, as fluent in Python as we are in multiple languages".

Python, a programming language, may surprise some as an example to pick, since it has been around for more than three decades. But her point will not be lost on the men and women who have chosen to work in the shadowy world of espionage.

In an age where data is key, where spies can no longer rely on false identities when biometric scanning can unmask them in seconds at borders and checkpoints, MI6 needs to prove that it can still be relevant.

Elsewhere, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, will on Monday call for a "whole of society approach" to building national resilience, in the face of growing threats and uncertainty.

In a speech to the Royal United Services Institute in London, Sir Richard is expected to say that defence and resilience need to be a higher priority for everyone, not just those in the military.

It is the latest in a string of warnings that the UK needs to be more ready than it is now to meet a growing volume of threats.

Sir Richard is expected to say that the situation is more dangerous than he has known during his entire career.

Russia has made it clear that it wishes to challenge, limit, divide and ultimately destroy Nato, he will say.

Britain's response needs to be about more than simply strengthening the armed forces. Deterrence, he will say, involves harnessing the UK's power, from its universities to industry, the rail network and the NHS.

"A new era for defence doesn't just mean our military and government stepping up - as we are - it means our whole nation stepping up," he will say.

Addressing a skills gap highlighted in a recent report by the Royal Academy of Engineering, Sir Richard will talk about the need to work with industry and young people and will announce £50m for new defence technical excellence colleges.

In recent weeks, both France and Germany have outlined plans for voluntary national service.

Last year, the then-Conservative government set out its own compulsory proposals, which Labour dismissed as a gimmick.

But the debate about how Britain as a whole should respond to an increasingly uncertain world is gathering pace.

The difficult question of what it would take to stop Putin fighting in Ukraine

BBC A treated image showing Putin with Zelensky in the forefront BBC

Vladimir Putin may have a reputation among some as a ruthless autocrat, a master manipulator of the international scene. But one thing Russia's president does not have is a poker face.

The late US Senator John McCain used to joke that when he looked into Putin's eyes, he saw three things, "a K and a G and a B", a reference to his past life as a Soviet intelligence officer.

I thought of this as I watched footage of Russia's leader sitting opposite American envoys in the Kremlin. He could not hide his emotions; he exuded an air of supreme confidence.

For President Putin reckons the diplomatic tide has turned in his favour, with an improved relationship with America and gains on the battlefield.

Some analysts say Putin has no incentive to retreat from his demands: that Ukraine gives up the last 20% of Donetsk it still controls; that all occupied territory is recognised internationally as Russian; that Ukraine's army is curtailed to a point of impotence; and Nato membership is ruled out forever.

As things stand, there are a few possible scenarios. The first is that US President Donald Trump may try to force Ukraine into a ceasefire on terms unwelcome to its people, one that cedes territory and lacks sufficient security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression.

If Ukraine demurs or Russia vetoes, President Trump has hinted he could wash his hands of the war; last week, he said "sometimes you have to let people fight it out".

AFP via Getty Images US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin 

AFP via Getty Images
The Trump administration's new national security strategy urged the US to 're-establish strategic stability' with Russia

He could remove the vital US intelligence Ukraine needs to detect incoming Russian drones and target Russian energy facilities.

Another possibility is that the war could just stumble on with Russia's forces continuing to make slow advances in the east.

The Trump administration's new national security strategy implied that Russia is no longer an "existential threat" to the US, and urged the US to "re-establish strategic stability" with Russia.

So, with American support for Ukraine in serious question, what - if anything - could potentially change Putin's mind? And what else could Ukraine, Europe and even China, do differently?

Could Europe do more?

At the moment, the continent is preparing for a ceasefire. Under the banner of the "coalition of the willing", it is preparing an international military force to help Ukraine deter future Russian invasion, alongside a financial effort to help reconstruct the war-ravaged country.

But some officials suggest that Europe should instead prepare for the war to muddle on.

They want to help Ukraine not only "win the fight tonight", with more drones and cash; but also provide longer term support and prepare for a 15 to 20 year war with Russia.

A map of areas of Russian military control in Ukraine

Europe could also do more to help protect Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles. There is already a plan – called the European Sky Shield Initiative – which could be expanded to allow European air defences to protect western Ukraine.

Others argue European troops could be deployed to western Ukraine to help patrol borders, freeing up Ukrainian soldiers to fight on the front line. Most proposals such as this have been rejected for fear of provoking Russia or escalating the conflict.

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House think tank, said these fears were based on "nonsense" because Western troops were already present on the ground and Sky Shield could be deployed in western Ukraine with little chance of any clash with Russian aircraft.

European leaders, in his view, had to "insert themselves into the conflict in a manner that will actually make a difference".

WPA Pool/Getty Images (left to right) British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk

WPA Pool/Getty Images
Zelensky has offered to drop Ukraine's aspirations to join the NATO military alliance, according to some reports on Sunday. (Pictured: Starmer with Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk)

Mr Giles said: "The only thing that will unarguably, undeniably stop Russian aggression is the presence of sufficiently strong western forces where Russia wants to attack, and the demonstrated will and resolve that they will be used to defend."

This strategy would of course come with huge political difficulty - with some voters in western Europe unwilling to risk a confrontation with Russia.

Few analysts expect Ukraine to reverse the tide and make actual territorial gains of its own.

Having spent several weeks in Ukraine recently, I heard no mention of any Spring offensive, only the need to slow Russia's advance and increase the price it pays in blood and treasure.

Some western diplomats claim Russia's generals are lying to the Russian president, pretending the situation on the ground is better than it is - adding to what they see as a deliberate strategy to exaggerate Russian gains, designed to suggest Ukraine is on the back foot and should thus sue for peace.

According to Thomas Graham in Foreign Affairs, in this year, Russia has seized only 1% of Ukrainian territory at a cost of more than 200,000 dead and wounded.

AFP via Getty Images Infantry recruits take cover from a grenade blast as they undergo a basic training course

AFP via Getty Images
'It is remarkable they [Ukraine] have held off for so long, not least fighting with one hand behind their back,' says Fiona Hill

Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, who served on Trump's national security council during his first term, says the biggest thing Putin has in his favour is that many people believe Ukraine is losing.

"Everyone is talking of Ukraine as the loser when it now has the most potent military in Europe," she says.

"Just think what they have done to Russia. It is remarkable they have held off for so long not least fighting with one hand behind their back."

Trade, sanctions and Russia's economy

Then there's the lever of sanctions. Certainly, Russia's economy is suffering. Inflation at 8%, interest rates 16%, growth slowed, budget deficits soaring, real incomes plunging, consumer taxes rising.

A report for the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform says Russia's war economy is running out of time. "The Russian economy is substantially less able to finance the war than it was at the beginning of it in 2022," the authors say.

But so far none of this appears to have changed much Kremlin thinking, not least because businesses have found ways of evading restrictions, such as transporting oil on unregistered ghost ships.

Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters Russian President Vladimir Putin in a slight smile
Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters
In this year alone, Russia has seized 1% of Ukrainian territory at a cost of more than 200,000 dead and wounded, according to Thomas Graham in Foreign Affairs

Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Finance and Security at Rusi, said western messaging about sanctions was convoluted and there were too many loopholes.

Russia would, he said, work around recent US sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft, just by re-labelling the exported oil as coming from non-sanctioned companies.

Mr Keatinge said if the West really wanted to hurt Russia's war economy, it would embargo all Russian oil and fully implement secondary sanctions on countries that still buy it. "We need to stop being cute and go full embargo," he said.

"We need to take our implementation of sanctions as seriously as the Kremlin takes circumvention."

In theory, sanctions could also affect Russian public opinion. In October, a survey by the state-run Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) said 56% of respondents said they felt "very tired" of the conflict, up from 47% last year.

But the consensus among Kremlinologists is that much of the Russian public remains supportive of Putin's strategy.

Reuters Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with U. President Donald Trump over lunch in the Cabinet Room at the White House in WashingtonReuters
The Ukrainian president arrived in Berlin on Sunday for peace talks with Witkoff and Friedrich Merz (Trump and Zelensky pictured on a previous occasion)

The European Union could agree to use about €200bn (£176bn) of frozen Russian assets to generate a so-called "reparation loan" for Ukraine. The latest European Commission proposal is to raise €90bn (£79bn) over two years.

In Kyiv, officials are already banking on getting the cash. But still the EU hesitates.

Belgium, where the bulk of the Russian assets are held, has long feared being sued by Russia - and on Friday, the Russian Central Bank announced legal action against Belgian bank Euroclear in a Moscow court.

Belgium says it will not agree the loan unless legal and financial risks are shared more explicitly with other EU members. France has concerns, such is its own vast debts, and fears exploiting the frozen assets could undermine the stability of the eurozone.

EU leaders will make a further attempt to agree a deal when they meet in Brussels on 18 December for their final summit before Christmas. But diplomats say there is no guarantee of success.

There is also disagreement over what the cash should be used for: keeping Ukraine's state solvent now or paying for its reconstruction after the war.

Ukraine's conscription question

As for Ukraine, it could mobilise more of its armed forces.

It remains the second-biggest army in Europe (behind Russia), and the most technically advanced - but it is nonetheless struggling to defend an 800-mile frontline.

After almost four years of war, many soldiers are exhausted and desertion rates are rising.

Getty Images Firefighters douse flames at a residential building while rescuers search the rubble for victims after a Russian ballistic missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine
Getty Images
Ukraine is defending itself against repeated Russian air attacks

Army recruiters are finding it harder to fill gaps as some younger men hide from press gangs or flee the country. But Ukraine could widen its conscription laws.

Currently only men aged 25 to 60 must be available to fight. This is a deliberate strategy by Kyiv to manage Ukraine's demographic challenges; a country with a low birth rate and millions living abroad cannot afford to lose what have been dubbed "the fathers of the future".

This puzzles outsiders. "I find it incredible that Ukraine has not mobilised its young people," one senior UK military figure told me.

"I think Ukraine must be one of the only countries in history facing an existential threat that has not thrown its mad 20-year-olds into the fight."

Fiona Hill said Ukraine had simply learned the lesson of history and the devastating impact World War One had on 20th Century European empires, which declined after failing to rediscover the population growth that had fuelled their economic rise.

"Ukraine is just thinking of their demographic [future]."

Strikes, diplomacy and Trump

If Ukraine could import and manufacture more long-range missiles, it could hit Russia harder and deeper.

This year it stepped up its air strikes on targets both in occupied territory and the Russian Federation. Earlier this month Ukraine's military commanders told Radio Liberty they had hit more than 50 fuel and military-industrial infrastructure facilities in Russia during the autumn.

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says some Russians experienced fuel shortages earlier this year. "By late October, Ukrainian drones had hit more than half of Russia's thirty-eight major refineries at least once.

"Production outages spread across multiple regions, and some Russian gas stations began rationing fuel."

But would more deep strikes on Russia make an impact, when both the Kremlin and public opinion in Russia seem indifferent?

AFP via Getty Images A woman mourns among graves of Ukrainian servicemen at the Lychakiv cemeteryAFP via Getty Images
As well as defending its territory, Ukraine has stepped up air strikes in the Russian federation

Mick Ryan, former Australian major general and now fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says deep strikes are not a magic bullet.

"They are an extraordinarily important military endeavour, but insufficient by themselves to force Putin to the negotiating table or to win the war."

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow in military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank, said more deep strikes would certainly damage Russia's energy and military infrastructure, as well as using up its air defence missiles. But he warned the tactic could be counterproductive.

"It could reinforce the argument the Russian leadership makes that an independent Ukraine poses a massive military threat," he said.

There's also - still - a diplomatic route.

Some analysts argue that if Putin is offered a way out of the war, he may choose it.

The theory goes like this: a deal is agreed that allows both sides to claim victory. Say, a ceasefire along the line of contact; some areas demilitarised; no formal territorial recognition. Compromises all round.

But the deal would require the US to engage hard with Russia, setting up negotiating teams, using its power to drive through agreement.

"The United States… needs to deploy its formidable psychological leverage it possesses over Russia,"

Thomas Graham argues. "One cannot overstate the role the United States – and Trump personally – plays in validating Russia as a great power and Putin as a global leader."

China's leverage

The wild card is China. President Xi Jinping is one of the few world leaders Putin listens to. When Xi warned earlier in the conflict against Russian threats of nuclear weapon use, the Kremlin fell swiftly in line.

Russia's war machine is also huge dependent on China's supply of dual use goods – such as electronics or machinery that can be used for civilian and military purposes.

So if Beijing decided it was no longer in China's interests for the war to continue, then it would have substantial leverage over Kremlin thinking.

For now, the US shows no sign of trying to encourage – or force – China to put pressure on Moscow. So the question is whether President Xi would be willing to apply any leverage off his own bat.

Shutterstock Putin shaking hands with President XiShutterstock
President Xi Jinping is one of the few world leaders Putin listens to

At the moment China seems happy for the US to be distracted, for transatlantic allies to be divided, and for the rest of the world to view China as a source of stability. But if Russia's invasion escalated, if global markets were disrupted, if the US applied secondary sanctions on China in punishment for its consumption of cheap Russian energy, then the thinking in Beijing might change.

For now though, Putin believes he is sitting pretty, with time on his side. The longer this conflict goes on, analysts say, the more Ukrainian morale will fall, the more divided its allies will become, and the more territory Russia will gain in Donetsk.

"Either we liberate these territories by force of arms or Ukrainian troops leave these territories," Putin said last week.

"Nothing will change his position," Fiona Hill told me. "Unless he exits stage left. Putin is betting right now that he can keep this going for long enough that circumstances play out to his advantage."

Top picture credit: Reuters

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Chile elects far-right José Antonio Kast as next president

Reuters Jose Antonio Kast, presidential candidate of the far-right Republican Party of Chile, and his wife Maria Pia Adriasola Barroilhet, arrive at a polling station to vote during a presidential runoff electionReuters
José Antonio Kast will be inaugurated as Chile's president in March next year

Chile has elected the far-right wing José Antonio Kast to be its next president, after an election campaign that was dominated by themes of security, immigration and crime.

Kast won decisively with more than 58% of the vote in his third attempt at running for president.

It marks the biggest shift to the right since the end of Chile's military dictatorship in 1990. Kast has openly praised Chile's former right-wing dictator, Augusto Pinochet.

He beat the governing left-wing coalition's candidate, Jeannette Jara, from the Communist Party.

At a gathering of his supporters in the capital Santiago, many draped in Chilean flags, chanting and taking selfies, there was jubilation as the results came through.

"I'm happy we can recover the country's security and patriotism," said Augustina Trancoso, donning a red "Make Chile Great Again" cap.

"We've been trying to win an election for years," said Belem Valdivieso. "In Chile, you used to be able to walk the streets peacefully, lately we've experienced problems with insecurity. I'm hoping his promises will be kept and he'll focus on security."

Throughout the campaign, Kast portrayed Chile as a country that was descending into chaos and insecurity. He pledged to restore order and crack down on irregular immigration, as well as implementing sharp spending cuts.

Kast is an admirer of Donald Trump, who is likely to become a close ally, and his policies echo those of the US president. He has pledged a border wall on Chile's porous frontier with Peru and Bolivia, maximum-security prisons, and mass deportations of irregular migrants, many of whom are from Venezuela.

Chilean voter Augustina Trancoso smiles toward the camera. She is wearing a red "Make Chile Great Again" cap.
Augustina Trancoso voted for Kast in Sunday's presidential election

Chile is one of the safest and more stable countries in South America, but a rise in immigration and organised crime in recent years has concerned many voters. Kast regularly drew links between the two.

His critics, though, say the problem is being exaggerated.

One voter in Santiago, Javiera Carrasco, liked some of Kast's policies but ended up voting for Jara. She said she felt "like a false sense of insecurity is becoming widespread."

"In other countries, there are much worse things happening than here. It just doesn't add up for me."

Chile's murder rate is now falling, and some studies suggest those born abroad commit fewer crimes on average. But the perception of growing insecurity was the motivation for many of Kast's voters.

"We are transforming into Colombia, a lot of terrorism, thieves, robbery, society is very unsafe," one voter Max Struber said.

"It may sound harsh to say it, but we need the government to continue Pinochet's work. Human rights abuses existed, that's true. But as a government it was good, we used to have peace and tranquility."

Kast's brother was a minister during Pinochet's dictatorship, and his father was a member of the Nazi party. Pinochet was an army general who led a US-backed military coup in 1973 and established a 17-year-long military dictatorship that was marked by brutal human rights abuses, forced disappearances and free-market economic policies.

Reuters Jeannette Jara, presidential candidate of the ruling leftist coalition and member of the Communist Party, addresses supporters as she concedes defeat in the presidential runoff election, in Santiago, Chile.Reuters
Communist Party member Jeannette Jara was the left-wing coalition candidate

Chile's current left-wing President Gabriel Boric, who could not run again, had suffered from low approval ratings. Kast's rival Jeannette Jara may have suffered by being seen as a "continuity vote".

A supporter at his victory party, Francisco Otero, said neither candidate represented everybody perfectly, but that a continuation of the government was seen as "much worse".

After the result Jara posted that "democracy has spoken loud and clear" and wished Kast "success for the good of Chile."

"We will continue working to advance a better life in our country," she added.

Her supporters fear Kast's election marks a return to Chile's far-right past.

"Kast's family helped the dictator Augusto Pinochet," Ricardo Herrera said, adding that he lived through Pinochet's dictatorship and it was "brutal".

Some are sceptical, though, that Kast will actually do what he's pledged.

"Kast says he wants to expel 360,000 undocumented migrants. He won't be able to do that. It's physically impossible," one voter Hector Lunes said.

Chilean voter Ricardo Herrera, wearing a green fleece jacket, stands with his arms folded, looking at the camera.
Ricardo Herrera, who lived through Pinochet's rule, voted for Jeannette Jara

Kast has also been firmly against abortion, even in cases of rape, and environmental protection policies.

His victory will likely be welcomed by investors as he has pledged a free-market approach to economics to shrink the state and deregulate certain industries.

This was the first presidential election in Chile where voting was mandatory and registration was automatic for those eligible.

This left some voters feeling like they had to pick whichever they say was the "least-worst" option.

"I don't know if I'd say the lesser of two evils, but I think Chile needs a change," Claudio Sanjuez said, "and I clearly think Kast could be that alternative".

"Both candidates were like opposite extremes," Cintia Urrutia said, but added she'd hoped for Jeannette Jara who she perceived as more "centrist".

Kast's victory in Chile follows a string of elections in Latin America that have shifted the region to the Right in recent years – including in Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and El Salvador.

He will be inaugurated on 11 March 2026. At rallies, he regularly counted down the days until this date warning undocumented immigrants that they should leave before then if they ever want the chance to return.

Can I just check - are my emails holding me back at work?! Xx

Getty Images Female entrepreneur remote working, holding pen and contemplating, sitting at table, WFHGetty Images

At first glance, my emails are polite and warm, after all "I'm just checking" in on a deadline but "no worries either way".

However, a closer look reveals my messages are punctuated by unnecessary apologies, smiley faces, exclamation marks and even kisses.

I like to think I'm being friendly and approachable, but according to experts, these linguistic habits may be quietly undermining how seriously I'm taken at work.

Careers coach Hannah Salton and etiquette coach William Hanson explain why so many of us write like this and the impact it could be having on how we're perceived, and even promoted at work.

Is your punctuation extra?

"Thanks very much!" I've replied to many an email - my punctuation may be extra but a full stop feels blunt.

People use exclamation marks to show "positivity and enthusiasm," says Hannah.

Women use them three times more often than men, a recent study published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology found.

She thinks that’s likely down to the idea that "women are often judged more harshly than men when they are direct and are called bossy and other gendered negative words".

And while a single exclamation mark isn't the problem the cumulative effect can be, warns Hannah.

“If it looks fake or like it's covering up insecurity it could impact credibility,” she explains.

Would you kiss them in real life?

Written communication is notoriously easy to misread, which is why many of us insert an emoji as a picture of our warmth or humour.

But etiquette coach William Hanson warns this can backfire.

"One emoji can mean different things to different people or something entirely unintended," he says.

"It would be better if people used words and a good command of English," he advises.

Emojis can have an "infantile connotation" which could lead to people perceiving you as younger, less senior, capable or responsible, he says.

"I would not put an emoji in an email," he says. "You can be friendly in your writing and remain professional at the same time."

And when it comes to signing off with a kiss, he says: "I would never put a kiss on the end of an email unless I would kiss them on the cheek in real life."

Softening language can dilute authority

"Just checking that you're following me and this all makes sense?"

Emails containing reassurance checkers can be self-depreciating," Hannah says, adding that over time, that tone can subtly shape how someone is perceived.

"As a manager, it's a difficult balance of being liked and respected and if you're not direct, there's a risk of creating an impression of being less capable," she says.

"There are definitely times where communicating in an overly apologetic or overly measured way can make you come across as less impactful."

"A lot of it is unconscious," Hannah says. "No one reads an email and thinks 'oh, they don't back themselves', it's more subtle than that.

"But if you're consistently communicating in a people-pleasing way, that can build up an impression of someone who doesn't back themselves, or who is potentially less competent."

What to cut out of your emails

Here are some of the things you might want to consider losing to appear more professional, our experts suggest:

  • Qualifying words such as "just" ("just checking", "just wondering")
  • Pre-emptive apologies like "sorry to bother you" or "I'm sure you're really busy but…"
  • Reassurance checkers such as "does that make sense?", "hope that's ok" or "no worries either way"
  • Exclamation marks
  • Emojis
  • Kisses or overly warm sign-offs

Hannah and William stress it's not about stripping all warmth or personality from professional communication.

"Personal style is important," Hannah says. "Showcasing personality at work is not a bad thing. You don't want to feel like you have to filter everything you write and remove any personality from it."

But at the same time you shouldn't use certain words and symbols "as a tool to be liked".

A practical way to spot and reduce these habits without losing personality is to pay attention to the emails you receive and notice how different styles make you feel - what sounds clear, confident or reassuring, and what feels excessive, she says.

Salton says AI tools can also be useful for reviewing drafts and removing excess filler or qualifier words.

Paramedic 'sent flying' in Liverpool parade attack

BBC James Vernon, who has short ginger hair, a ginger beard and round framed glasses, sits on a chair and speaks to the camera wearing his green North West Ambulance uniform. BBC
James Vernon picked himself up of the ground and rushed to the aid of the injured

A paramedic "sent flying" by a two tonne car as it ploughed into a dense crowd at Liverpool's Premier League victory parade has described how the "adrenaline took over".

James Vernon did not even hear the Ford Galaxy Titanium, driven by 54-year-old Paul Doyle, coming before he was struck from behind on 26 May.

Mr Vernon, deployed as a cycle paramedic with the North West Ambulance Service (NWAS) during the parade, was on his way to help a patient having a heart attack when he was struck.

Despite being knocked down, he was able to shelter children in the back of an ambulance and rush to the aid of many of Doyle's 134 victims.

'Almighty force'

Doyle, of Burghill Road in Croxteth, Liverpool, is due to be sentenced on Monday after pleading guilty to 31 charges including causing GBH with intent, dangerous driving and affray.

Mr Vernon had been walking with his bicycle ahead of an ambulance to help it get to where the man had collapsed outside Hooters bar on Water Street, which was packed with tens of thousands of people.

He said: "There was a lot of people singing, a lot of people chanting, and I had the sirens at the back of me in close proximity, so very, very loud.

"I would say we were making good progress, and then all of a sudden I was struck with almighty force from behind, which has sent me flying over to the right-hand side."

CPS A police custody photo of Paul Doyle wearing a grey jumper and looking stunned. His hair, a long brown fringe, is dishevelled and to the side. His face has red marks on itCPS
Paul Doyle pleaded guilty to 31 charges including causing GBH with intent on what was supposed to be the first day of his trial

Mr Vernon said he landed in a gutter and saw the car passing to his left.

"For me, instantly I thought I was in the middle of a terrorist incident," he said.

After Doyle passed the ambulance, he stopped and reversed straight into it, before richocheting back into the middle of the road.

He said it then lurched forward in a "sweeping" motion "throwing members of the public left and right."

Mr Vernon activated the emergency function on his radio and shouted that he and other pedestrians had been "run over" on Water Street.

He and his colleague jumped in the back of the ambulance to take a "10 second breather" before deciding they needed to join the rescue effort.

"We both looked at each other and said 'we need to help here, let's get out, and let's do our jobs'," Mr Vernon said.

Footage of the incident was circulated on social media

Describing the scene as they opened the door, he said: "There were patients lying on the floor, there were push-chairs on their sides, scarves on the floor, empty beer bottles, there was just everything all over the floor.

"There were piercing screams and people running in any direction you can imagine but just not towards the car."

Fearing that a terrorist could still emerge from the vehicle, the paramedics ushered six or seven children into the back of the ambulance.

"I wasn't sure what the incident was outside," he said.

"I knew there was a car. I knew the car ran over a significant amount of people, but I didn't know what was then coming."

Stopping at the "twisted" frame of his bike to grab some medical supplies, Mr Vernon began triaging the stricken fans in the road, including some still trapped under the Ford Galaxy.

EPA Three forensics officers, wearing white overalls and blue masks, are at the scene where a car collided with fans during the Liverpool FC trophy parade in Liverpool city centre.EPA
Paul Doyle's car ploughed into a dense crowd on Water Street just after 18:00

He said his while "extensive" training, including in mass casuality events, kicked in, he had never before been caught up in the same incident he was responding to.

"The adrenaline massively took over," he said.

"I'm going to be honest, the next day I woke up very stiff, you know, and that's very suggestive of that force, that whiplash kind of force."

Mr Vernon said after more medics and police officers arrived on scene he was able to go into a makeshift casualty area in the Mowgli restaurant, where he was able to message his family and friends to tell them he was ok.

Asked his reaction to Doyle's guilty pleas, he said: "I think the relief was immeasurable.

"It was like a weight had lifted off my shoulders because I knew that then negated me from having to go to Crown Court [as a witness], and having to go through that process, and ultimately it's him admitting his guilt for what happened that day."

Listen to the best of BBC Radio Merseyside on BBC Sounds and follow BBC Merseyside on Facebook, X, and Instagram, and watch BBC North West Tonight on BBC iPlayer.

投资低迷加剧,中国经济进入更保守时代

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投资低迷加剧,中国经济进入更保守时代

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, AMY CHANG CHIEN
中国宁波的一家汽车工厂。中国政府不鼓励电动汽车制造商进行残酷的竞争。
中国宁波的一家汽车工厂。中国政府不鼓励电动汽车制造商进行残酷的竞争。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
过去30年来,随着中国发展成全球经济强国,投资额几乎年年稳定增长。
这种情况即将发生变化。今年,中国对新建工厂、公共基础设施和住房等资产的投资预计将出现自上世纪80年代末以来的首次下降。这标志着以多年强劲增长重塑全球秩序的中国经济将进入一个更为保守的时代。
这一转变也表明,对中国进行投资已不再是“稳赚不赔”的选择,尽管北京仍在以5%的经济增长预期来展现信心。不过,和中国经济数据常见的情况一样,投资下滑引发的疑问远多于答案。
中国的房地产危机已持续五年,仍看不到尽头,这让经济的一大支柱元气大伤。由于房地产市场低迷,地方政府财政吃紧,已不像以往经济放缓时期那样大举投入基础设施建设。与此同时,中国政府打击制造业过度竞争,也让用于扩张的资本投资环境明显降温。
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今年1月至10月,一项被称为“固定资产投资”的综合指标同比下降了1.7%。这一跌势始于今年下半年,并在10月出现两位数的急剧下滑。分析人士认为,11月投资可能继续下跌,相关数据预计将于周一公布。
房地产、基础设施和制造业——构成该指标的三大板块——如今同时下行。过去,某一领域的低迷往往会被其他领域的支出所抵消,三大投资支柱同时下滑的情况十分罕见。以往,政府通常会通过托底房地产或大规模增加基础设施支出来应对下行周期,但今年北京方面一直不愿采取大胆的措施出手相助。
“这是一次具有历史意义的变化,”欧亚集团中国团队主管王丹表示。“这是一种不同的短期经济管控方式。”
去年,中国武汉的一个建筑工地。中国房地产市场显著放缓是投资下降的一个主要因素。
去年,中国武汉的一个建筑工地。中国房地产市场显著放缓是投资下降的一个主要因素。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
王丹认为,这种较为被动的做法表明,中国领导层对出口持续保持强劲抱有信心。尽管保护主义抬头、全球对大量廉价中国商品的担忧加剧,但出口仍推动中国创下了贸易顺差新高。
地方政府没有再通过修建机场、高铁站、公路和桥梁来向经济注入资金,而是选择按兵不动。对于房地产行业,既没有出台行业范围内的纾困措施,也没有制定刺激房地产投资的全面方案。
万科的董事会议室里,投资匮乏的困境正迫切地显现出来。万科是中国最大的房地产开发商之一,如今正徘徊在可能发生财务崩溃的边缘。
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由于无力偿还债务,万科一直依赖其第一大股东、国有企业深圳地铁来履行偿债义务。但上个月,万科首次请求债券持有人推迟还款,释放出国家金融支持可能已接近极限的信号。部分债务的最后期限将在周一到来,万科或将再次需要债权人同意延期付款。
中国官员已开始对投资大幅下滑显露担忧。中国领导人习近平上周四公布的一项规划中,投资被列为2026年的政策重点之一。
房地产领域的深层问题——住房供应过剩以及房价长期下跌——已经动摇了企业信心。
在中国南方城市珠海经营制造和房地产开发公司30多年的简廷在表示,由于经济疲软,客户目前不再扩大业务,设计合同的数量已明显减少。
“有些制造商已经关闭工厂,冻结了所有新设施的投资,”这位69岁的台商表示,他自上世纪90年代起就在中国工作。“大家都在拼命抛售固定资产,因为对未来没有信心。”
广州的一个招聘会上,纺织厂的代表正在招聘工人。
广州的一个招聘会上,纺织厂的代表正在招聘工人。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
翀尚时代纺织科技有限公司是江苏省一家有约150名员工的纺织企业,该公司的销售助理帕姆·姜(音)说,中国国内的纺织行业正在收缩,对厂房和设备的投资明显减少。
纺织业在国内基本上是按兵不动和缩减规模,”她说。
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她将投资下降归因于劳动力成本上升以及对关税的不确定性。姜女士表示,许多中国纺织企业没有选择在国内扩张,而是将投资转向越南、埃及等国家。
制造业投资放缓的同时,政府还在推进“反内卷”行动。“内卷”指的是中国企业为抢占市场份额、击败竞争对手展开的残酷价格战,这种价格战会严重损害利润。省级或市级政府过去往往通过提供激励措施和支持来扶持本地龙头企业,从而加剧了这种恶性竞争。这导致资金充裕的企业数量过剩,每家企业都准备推出远超消费者需求的产品。
但一些经济学家认为,北京试图缓解“内卷”的努力实际上是在允许地方政府减少对制造业的投资。
荣鼎集团中国业务研究分析师杰里米·史密斯表示,他认为地方政府可能正在顺应北京的态度。他指出,自5月以来,中国几乎所有省份和地级市的固定资产投资都出现了下降。
许多中国纺织企业正在投资海外,例如越南和埃及等国。
许多中国纺织企业正在投资海外,例如越南和埃及等国。 Linh Pham for The New York Times
他说,这一投资数据的下滑更真实地反映了荣鼎在房地产行业崩盘之后所作出的判断。
荣鼎报告称,基于信贷增长等其他经济信号,中国的投资活动很可能在2023年和2024年均出现下降。主要由于投资放缓,荣鼎估计中国去年的经济增速在2.4%至2.8%之间,远低于政府公布的5%。
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“投资下降才是常态,而不是例外,”史密斯说。
他表示,北京一方面希望展现经济韧性的形象,另一方面也试图表明自己正在遏制困扰众多行业的有害竞争。
投资下滑对中国经济增长而言并非好兆头,因为投资在国内生产总值中占据相当大的比重。然而,用于计算GDP的更广义投资指标却在第三季度有所增长,与固定资产投资的急剧下降形成反差,这让经济学家一时难以解释其中的矛盾。
中国张家口的一座高铁站。多年来,中国一直通过投资公共基础设施来增加投资总量。
中国张家口的一座高铁站。多年来,中国一直通过投资公共基础设施来增加投资总量。 Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
高盛在11月的一份报告中表示,预计固定资产投资不会拖累经济增长,因为相关下降“被夸大了”。高盛认为,大部分下滑其实是“对先前高估数据的统计修正”,而非真实的经济放缓。
国家统计局新闻发言人、首席经济学家付凌晖上个月则将投资下降归因于“复杂严峻的外部环境”和“激烈的国内竞争”,认为这削弱了投资回报,拖累了企业盈利能力。
但他指出,新能源、航空航天等高技术产业的投资仍在快速增长,显示整体投资增速虽然放缓,但结构正在“优化”。
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中国官方媒体《经济日报》11月称,中国已进入高质量发展的新阶段,呼应了官方的政策表述,并指责外国媒体借投资停滞之机渲染所谓中国经济“危机论”。

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中国数十年来首次购买阿根廷小麦

在阿根廷总统米莱(Javier Milei)下调关税以刺激出口、潘帕斯草原迎来创纪录小麦收成之际,中国正采购数十年来首批阿根廷小麦。

据彭博社报道,中国国企中粮集团正在位于阿根廷巴拉那河沿岸出口枢一处设施装载这批货物。这将是自1990年代以来首次有阿根廷小麦运往中国。这一船只随后还将在另一处港口装载6.5万吨小麦,随后启航赴中国。

此次采购正值阿根廷小麦价格处于全球低位。近乎完美的生长季带来爆量丰收,加上小麦出口税率下调2个百分点至7.5%,进一步提升了阿根廷货源的国际竞争力。

尽管出口关税在许多国家被视为异端,但阿根廷自本世纪初以来一直依赖此类税收以支撑财政支出。奉行自由意志主义、主张松绑市场的米莱,则计划最终彻底取消这些关税。

这笔小麦交易也凸显出一个更广泛的趋势:在与美国长期贸易摩擦的背景下,中国正持续加大从南美采购农产品的力度。

去年,在特朗普就任美国总统前不久,北京开放进口阿根廷小麦和玉米,被视为推动粮食供应多元化的重要一步。特朗普首个总统任期内,中国也批准进口阿根廷豆粕;今年10月期间,至少有两批运往中国的豆粕在巴拉那河装船,但至今仍未见玉米交易落地。

虽然阿根廷小麦产量可观,但它的蛋白含量偏低、品质相对逊色,可能限制米莱政府通过小麦出口关税为央行积累美元储备的空间。罗萨里奥谷物交易所就在报告中指出,虽然小麦单产创高,但蛋白含量偏低,正在压低国际买家的成交价格。

黎智英案今宣判 港市民法院外等候旁听

香港壹传媒集团创始人黎智英涉嫌勾结外国势力的案件星期一(12月15日)宣判,当天上午有逾80名香港市民在法院外等候入庭旁听。 (法新社)

香港壹传媒集团黎智英涉嫌勾结外国势力的案件星期一宣判,有逾80名香港市民当天上午在法院外等候入庭旁听。香港警方在法院外加强部署,多辆警车在场戒备。

综合网媒“香港01”、香港电台和法新社等报道,黎智英与《苹果日报》三家公司涉嫌串谋勾结外国势力案,将于星期一(12月15日)上午10时宣布裁决。

黎智英与《苹果日报》三家公司被控一项串谋发布煽动刊物罪及一项串谋勾结外国或者境外势力罪。黎智英另外被控一项串谋勾结外国或者境外势力罪,是《香港国安法》2020年6月底实施后,首起涉及勾结外国势力的审讯案件,罪成者将面对终身监禁的最高刑罚。

香港警方星期一(12月15日)上午派人员到西九龙裁判院外巡逻,加强法院戒备。(法新社)
香港警方星期一(12月15日)上午派人员到西九龙裁判院外巡逻,加强法院戒备。(法新社)

这起高等法院案件移师西九龙裁判法院审理,有80多名香港市民星期一上午在法院大楼外等候入庭旁听。法院外的保安明显加强,停泊多辆警车及装甲车“剑齿虎”,大批警员在法院附近戒备,也出动警犬巡逻,截查驶经法院的车辆。

不少香港市民称,自己是黎智英的支持者,想知道他目前的身体情况。曾为《苹果日报》工作了近20年的张女士称,“我想看看老板怎样了,健康是否变差”。

黎智英案令北京与许多西方国家关系陷入低谷。美国总统特朗普据报曾在10月与中国国家主席习近平会晤时,呼吁北京释放黎智英。

上周度过78岁生日的黎智英,曾形容自己“天生反叛”。他在被捕前接受路透社采访时称,“将战斗至生命最后时刻”。

香港壹传媒集团创始人黎智英(中)2020年8月因违反《香港国安法》被捕。(法新社档案照)
香港壹传媒集团创始人黎智英(中)2020年8月因违反《香港国安法》被捕。(法新社档案照)

黎智英在2020年8月首次因违反《香港国安法》被捕,同年12月起被还押,期间曾因黎智英想聘用海外律师打官司等事宜引发多起诉讼。此案2023年12月正式开审,今年8月底完成结案陈词,审讯历时156日。

香港司法机构早前宣布,除了正庭外,并开设七个延伸法庭,合共有逾500个旁听席。司法机构网页上星期五(12日)显示案件的裁决日期后,已有逾20家媒体在门外排队获取筹号,也有市民在本周期间到法院外放下凳子或字条等,希望能取得正庭约50个公众席的其中一个座位。

悉尼邦迪海滩枪击案致15人遇难,这里是最新消息汇总

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悉尼邦迪海滩枪击案致15人遇难,这里是最新消息汇总

JIN YU YOUNG
周日,悉尼枪击案现场,医护人员正在等待协助其他紧急救援人员。
周日,悉尼枪击案现场,医护人员正在等待协助其他紧急救援人员。 Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
周日,在澳大利亚悉尼的邦迪海滩,两名枪手向一群正在庆祝犹太教节日光明节首日的人群开枪,造成至少15人死亡、数十人受伤。警方表示,两名枪手为父子关系,其中年长者在袭击过程中死亡。
澳大利亚官员周一早间表示,共有40人因伤住院。官员还称,两名警察在袭击中受伤。警方表示,另一名枪手也受了伤。
警方和该国领导人将这起枪击事件称为针对犹太裔澳大利亚人的袭击。执法部门将此次枪击定性为恐怖袭击。
警察总长马尔·兰扬表示,警方在一辆与被击毙嫌疑人有关的车辆中发现并拆除了两个简易爆炸装置。警方目前尚未公布嫌疑人的姓名。
广告
一段目击者视频显示,随着枪声响起,数十人从海里跑出并逃离海滩。另一段经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示,一名路人制服了枪手并抢下他的武器,当地官员称赞他为英雄。
自2023年10月7日以色列发生哈马斯主导的袭击事件以来,犹太人遭受的针对性袭击不断增加。在英国,一名男子在犹太人一年中最神圣的日子赎罪日袭击了曼彻斯特的一座犹太教堂。而在美国,犹太人也经历了一整年的暴力事件。
以下是目前已知的有关澳大利亚枪击事件的信息:
数百人聚集在一起庆祝犹太节日。
这起大规模枪击发生在晚上6点45分左右,事发地是悉尼最受欢迎的旅游胜地之一邦迪海滩,这片海滩全长超过900米,每年吸引数十万名游客。
枪手开枪时,海滩上正在举行一个由哈巴德组织主办的庆祝光明节首日的活动。
广告
“对犹太裔澳大利亚人的攻击就是对每一位澳大利亚人的攻击,”澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯在电视讲话中说。
目击者称,他们听到了多声枪响。
埃博尼·芒罗当时正带着17个月大的宝宝在海滩上,听到枪声后,她与另一名男子一起躲到一个金属烧烤架下面。她说,自己听到子弹击中烧烤架后反弹的声音,并闻到了头顶上方的火药味。
她表示,枪击持续了约10分钟,她亲眼目睹至少一人中枪。“我正准备离开,突然就听到了‘啪’一声响,”芒罗说。
18岁的芬恩·福斯特是一名来自加拿大的背包客,他说自己和女友当时正要去麦当劳买冰淇淋,突然听到类似放烟花的声音。
“啪、啪、啪,”他说。“响了15或20声。”
广告
大规模枪击案在澳大利亚十分罕见
由于澳大利亚严格的控枪法律,大规模枪击事件在该国十分罕见。澳大利亚是发达国家中枪支相关死亡率最低的国家之一。
1996年,塔斯马尼亚州亚瑟港发生的一起枪击案中,一名枪手杀害了35人。此后,该国对枪支法律进行了全面改革。枪击案发生后,公众的愤怒促使政府禁止了突击步枪以及许多其他半自动步枪和霰弹枪。
澳大利亚还实施了新的枪支登记要求,并进行了枪支回购,收缴了私人持枪的三分之一,并熔化了多达一百万支枪。
我们了解到哪些遇害者的信息?
官方表示,死伤者年龄介于10岁至87岁之间。当局正试图通知死伤者的亲属,部分受害者的身份浮出水面。
广告
组织邦迪海滩活动的犹太组织哈巴德确认,其中一名遇难者是以利·施兰格拉比。该组织表示,他是邦迪哈巴德的助理拉比,是一名“尽心竭力的”牧师,作为哈巴德的使者不知疲倦地工作。纽约市当选市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼在社交媒体上表示,施兰格拉比与布鲁克林皇冠高地社区有着深厚渊源。
哈巴德还公布了另外两名袭击事件遇难者的身份:生活在墨尔本和悉尼的哈巴德社群成员鲁文·莫里森;以及大屠杀幸存者亚历克斯·克莱特曼,事发时与子女和孙辈一同出席活动。
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在社交媒体上表示,法国公民丹·埃尔卡亚姆在袭击中遇难。
关于嫌疑人的已知信息
调查人员未公布嫌疑人姓名,但描述他们为一名50岁男子及其24岁的儿子。警方周一上午表示,年长男子被警方开枪击中后死亡,年轻男子“重伤”。
尽管官员将此次枪击事件定性为恐怖袭击,但新南威尔士州警察局局长马尔·兰扬拒绝就嫌疑人的意识形态置评,称调查人员需要时间深入调查。他表示,警方目前无需搜寻其他袭击者。
广告
兰扬透露,其中一名嫌疑人此前为警方所知晓,但调查人员没有发现两人中有任何一人曾策划此次枪击事件的迹象。

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建设性意见|26岁史上最年轻博导,原来取的是马克思的真经

CDT 档案卡
标题:26岁史上最年轻博导,原来取的是马克思的真经
作者:项栋梁
发表日期:2025.12.14
来源:建设性意见
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

都知道西天取经要经历九九八十一难,走十万八千里才能取得真经,修成正果。现如今的学术之路,其实也颇有类似之处:

从本科开始一路修行打怪,取得硕士、博士学位、获得教职、熬过非升即走的考核期,晋升副教授、成为教授、博士生导师,漫长的晋升路径和巨大的外部压力绝对堪比西天取经。

等熬到博导这一级,绝大多数青年教师都到35岁以上了。这都已经算是非常优秀非常顺利的学术大牛了。

北大的韦东奕够天才吧?以韦东奕的天纵之资,26岁博士毕业,34岁才评上副教授。

晋升学历可以凭天才➕努力提前通关,但晋升教职就不一样了,大家都是既有天分又很努力还顶着名校光环的学术大牛,知名高校的教职坑位就那么多,凭什么就你能一路超车提前拿到博导呢?

除非,你是在浙大读的博士。

是的,浙江大学,尤其是浙江大学的文史哲学科,有一条平步青云之路,可以批量成就30岁以下的超年轻博导。30岁不到就能成为顶尖985高校浙江大学的研究员、博士生导师,足以让大家惊为天人。但仔细盘算一下,顶级的学术天才做到这样也还是有可能的:

22岁本科毕业,硕博连读5年毕业是27岁,再经过3年考核期,在学术新人层次普遍不高的项目基础上做出一些重大科研成果,30岁升个博导,虽然难度极高,但还是存在理论可能性的。

只是万万没想到,还能有26岁的博导!这一般就不是凭借个人能力所能达到的成就了。

闵超,1999年出生,18岁考上郑州大学马哲专业,22岁进入浙大读马克思原理专业硕博连读,4年即拿到博士学位(通常是5至6年)。

近日,26岁的闵超同学,啊不对,是闵超老师被录用为浙江大学“新百人计划”研究员、博士生导师。

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对学术圈不了解的读者可能感受不到26岁当博导的震撼程度,我换个大家都好理解的场景打个比方:

一位顶级名校的青年才俊,在大学期间表现优秀,各种奖项拿到手软,做学生干部也表现突出,经学校推荐、组织考核,毕业后直接以选调生身份进入国家部委当公务员。这已经算是极其厉害了吧?选调生跨过三年基层服务期直接进中央部委。这个稀罕程度,相当于26岁博士毕业留在本校当研究员,已经是祖坟冒青烟的福分了。毕竟绝大多数高校招研究员都会从排名更高的大学招博士或者博士后,985的博士能进双非本科做研究员就乐开花了,留在本校的那是凤毛麟角。

但成为研究员,距离博导还远着呢。

26岁博士毕业直接留在本校当博导,相当于应届毕业的选调生直接招进国家部委给安排了一个处长的职位。这中间省去了多少年的努力,一步跨越了几个层级,大家可以掂量一下。

闵超老师,是有怎样突出的能力,做出了怎样卓越的贡献,才能拥有如此惊人的学术晋升速度呢?

我仔细查了几天,恕我眼拙,实在是没有发现。

毋庸置疑,闵超老师在他的专业领域很努力、很厉害,拿过很多奖项,发过不少论文,参与过3项国家社科基金项目……但他所有的这些成绩都是一位名校优秀博士生的正常水平。

首先看奖项

闵超大学期间荣获河南省三好学生、优秀毕业生、省共青团基层基础项目大赛特等奖、省微团课一等奖、教育部“我心中的思政课”微电影展示全国一等奖和最佳表演奖等50余项奖项荣誉。

研究生期间,闵超荣获浙江省2024年度“三助岗位之星”优秀个人典型称号,全省共10人入选。

博士研究生期间,闵超发表的论文荣获学校研究生优秀成果一等奖,这是该院首次获得浙江大学文科类优秀成果奖。

以上这些奖项,一部分是三好学生、优秀毕业生等综合性奖项,一部分是“三助岗位之星”等励志奖项,还有一些是微电影展示最佳表演奖等我也不知道该怎么归类的50余个奖项。

唯一的学术类奖项,是博士期间获得了学校文科研究生优秀成果一等奖。浙大马院在新闻里还特别强调,这是该学院首次获得这一奖项,看起来有点厉害。

但深入看一下,同期获得该奖项一等奖的,有12个人,研究生阶段的也有7人。

image

并且,这还是浙江大学内部的奖项。

从奖项来看,闵超老师是很厉害,但似乎也没有厉害到成为百年浙大第一人,中国史上最年轻博士生导师的程度?

再看论文

根据浙大官网的介绍,闵超读博期间发表C刊论文5篇,这被认为是学术研究能力拔尖的硬证据。

image

相对顶尖高校文科博士生普遍2到3篇C刊的水平,闵超的论文发表成绩的确属于领先的那一批。但是,5篇C刊要说遥遥领先那可就够不着了。我简单做了下检索,举几个近两年的发论文高手作为例子:

华中师范大学国际政治专业王承禹,硕博期间发表6篇C刊,现为某省党校讲师、助理研究员。

华东师范大学社会发展学院2021级博士研究生刘雨婷,已发表12篇C刊论文。目前读博第5年,没听说提前毕业,更没听说做了博导。

同为马克思主义专业,复旦大学2020级博士生肖玉飞发表C刊论文12篇,博士读完5年才毕业,2025年入职东南大学马克思主义学院,评定为讲师职称。

当然,学术能力评价不能只看论文,但既然浙大把闵超老师发表C刊论文数量当作评定其博导职称的重要因素,那咱们做个横向比较也算是合理的。

再看论文内容,以闵超博士最重要的获奖论文《马克思1848年法国革命研究与唯物史观的具体化转向》为例,我特意找来论文仔细拜读过。一直读到参考文献的部分,我惊掉的下巴还是没有合上。

image

一篇研究马克思主义的,与1848年法国革命有关的文章,居然没有任何德文、法文或英文的参考文献。唯一一个德国作者的参考文献,读的还是1958年的中文翻译版。整篇论文只有3条参考文献,3条。

也就是说,闵超博士写作这篇论文没有参考任何与1848年法国革命以及马克思对这场革命之研究的原始文献或一手素材。

我的确是不知道马哲领域是怎么评价论文的,但我非常确定,在其它人文社科领域,这样的研究思路是肯定过不了开题的。

我找个对照论文给大家感受一下,同为浙江大学新百人计划年轻博导的江佳凤老师发表的论文《朱子“尽心”章诠释中的知行问题》,都是一万多字的篇幅,人家的参考文献是这样的:

image

image

原始文献,一手素材,再加上多角度的二手素材,这才是一篇正常论文应该有的样子,吧?

最后看项目

对青年社科人才来说,参与各级社科项目也是评定其能力的重要参考因素。

闵超读博期间深度参与3项国家社科基金项目,这在人文社科类博士生里面绝对属于一骑绝尘般的存在。

但有两点背景信息需要补充:

其一,国家社科基金项目的申请与主持,基本上都是由长江学者之类学术界大佬在把持,博士生的威望、资源,以及研究能力对申请国家社科基金几乎是没有任何影响的。

简而言之,导师能申到多高的项目,博士生就有机会参与多高的项目。

其二,在近10年,特别是近5年的国家社科基金项目中,马克思主义相关的项目占比逐年提升,目前已经是毫无争议的人文社科第一大类别。

打个简单粗暴的比方,其它人文社科专业要取国家社科基金的真经得走十万八千里,马克思主义专业只要走二万五千里。

总而言之,闵超作为人文社科领域的青年教师,各方面研究能力都是非常优秀的,但要说成为全国最年轻的26岁文科博士生导师,只怕还有一些努力之外的因素。

【404媒体】都市快报|“六神磊磊读金庸”,被禁止关注

CDT 档案卡
标题:“六神磊磊读金庸”,被禁止关注
作者:都市快报
发表日期:2025.12.14
来源:都市快报
主题归类:404媒体
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

12月14日中午,记者注意到,粉丝众多的微信公众号“六神磊磊读金庸”因违规无法关注。已关注该号的网友,可以正常打开他的往期大部分文章;未关注该号的网友,无法通过搜索关注。

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14日下午,记者注意到,未关注该账号者已无法通过搜索功能找到“六神磊磊读金庸”的微信公号。

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同时记者发现,“六神磊磊”相关视频号仍可正常关注,微博、抖音也可正常关注。当事人的另一个微信公众号“六神磊磊读唐诗”也显示正常,其视频号“六神磊磊说”也可正常搜索关注。

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公开资料显示,六神磊磊本名王晓磊,1984年8月17日出生于江西省宜春市铜鼓县,毕业于北京广播学院(现中国传媒大学),自媒体原创作者、腾讯“大家”专栏作家,2016年获中国年度新锐榜“年度新媒体”(个人)等奖项。

中国人权|拍摄维吾尔集中营的人,要在美国争取自己的自由

CDT 档案卡
标题:拍摄维吾尔集中营的人,要在美国争取自己的自由
作者:陆经纬 (Atlas Luk)
发表日期:2025.12.12
来源:中国人权
主题归类:走线
CDS收藏:人物馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

这是一个关于勇气、逃亡和荒诞悖论的故事。

2020年10月,中国河南青年关恒独自驾车深入新疆,用长焦镜头记录下那些隐藏在荒野、城镇和军营背后的集中营设施。为了让这些影像公之于众,他开始一场惊心动魄的逃亡:辗转南美,最终独自驾驶一艘小船,在海上漂泊23个小时,从巴哈马成功登陆美国佛罗里达。2021年抵达美国后,他按计划发布了视频。这些素材,成为国际社会(包括BuzzFeed News的普利策获奖团队)证实中国在新疆行径的关键证据。

曾经以为自己安全了的关恒,四年后却在美国失去自由。2025年8月,在美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)针对关恒合租室友的突袭中,关恒因“非法入境”在纽约上州被拘捕。如今,他身处纽约州布鲁姆县监狱(Broome County Correctional Facility),面临着被遣返的危险——被迫回到那个他不惜一切代价逃离的中国。

2025年8月21日早晨,纽约上州一处住宅区,关恒的房门被一阵剧烈的敲门声惊醒,是ICE的探员。

他们并不是来抓他的。他们的执法目标是关恒的室友——一对在当地做店铺转让生意的夫妻,他们因为和别人有经济纠纷,而遭人举报。但此时,当ICE的探员拿着搜查令冲进屋子时,38岁的关恒正好被“撞见”,随即也被抓走。现场对话如下:

探员:“你当时是怎么入境的?”

关恒:“自己开船从海上过来的。”

探员:“你有I-94表格(入境记录)吗?”

关恒:“没有。”

关恒先是被带到ICE办公室,随后被送进奥尔巴尼附近的县监狱,关了一天;又被转移到布法罗的移民拘留中心,关了近一周;最后,他被送到了现在的关押地——布鲁姆县监狱。

“他们根本不关心我有没有工卡,也不关心我的庇护案件是什么状态。”2025年10月,在接受“中国人权”电话采访的时候,关恒的声音充满了困惑和沮丧。“他们只关心我的入境方式。只说我没有通过正常海关入境,这个行为本身就是非法的。”

他那个正在等待面试排期的庇护申请、那张合法的工卡、那本纽约州驾照……在ICE面前,因“未被海关检查入境” (Entry Without Inspection) 这一事实,而显得一文不值。

伴随着川普当局严查非法移民,布鲁姆县监狱人满为患。几个月过去了,关恒在焦虑与沮丧中等待着自己的案件结果。没有人知道,这个来自中国的年轻人,曾经在过去的几年经历了什么;也没有人知道,他曾经冒着巨大风险拍摄的新疆集中营影像,为中国当局在新疆队维吾尔族人的所作所为提供了重要的佐证。而如果一旦被遣返,他将面临多么巨大的危险。

1 “ 我想去新疆实地看看,到底是怎么回事”

关恒的家在河南南阳,出生于1987年11月。

据关恒和他的母亲讲述,因父母离异,关恒从小在祖母的照料下长大,祖母去世后,他一直一个人独自生活。在2021年7月离开中国前,他从事过许多不同工作——开过快餐店、在采油厂工作过几年,后来一直是自由职业。据他讲,事实上他很早就学会了“翻墙”。

与许多中国年轻人不同,关恒的“翻墙”之旅并未停留在电影和音乐等娱乐活动上。通过互联网,他触及了那些被官方叙事掩埋的“禁区”:从1960年代的大饥荒到1989年的天安门事件。这些来自外部世界的真实信息,对他的思想造成了很大冲击,一条巨大的裂痕在他心中被凿开了。

“我一点一点地了解,最后发现,原来中国政府隐藏了这么多不可告人的秘密。”2025年11月,在本文作者拨通监狱电话对关恒的一次采访中,他如是回忆。他说,大约是在大学毕业之后,他已成了一个沉默的异见者,一个生活在体制下,思想却早已“越狱”的人。

2019年,关恒以一名探险游客的身份,骑着摩托车从上海一路穿越到新疆。他本以为这是一场风光之旅,却撞上了一堵高压管控的无形之墙。

“那种感觉太明显了。”他说,“一进入新疆,就有大量的检查站,到处都是警察和武警。连住宾馆都要反复登记,还要做人脸识别。”在加油站,他甚至因骑着摩托车而受到严格限制。这次新疆之旅,让他亲眼见证了中国政府在新疆严酷的社会管理系统,但那时他对此依然知之不深。

2020年,新冠疫情爆发,关恒和数亿中国人一样被封控在家。在百无聊赖的一次上网中,他点开了一篇来自著名的美国网络媒体BuzzFeed News (BFN) 的报道。报道用卫星地图和数据,揭示了一个庞大的、遍布新疆的集中营网络。

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图为BuzzFeed News新疆系列报道之一,发布于2020年8月27日

这一刻,他在2019年新疆之旅中的疑惑有了答案。他意识到,他在新疆看到的那些检查站、警察和人脸识别系统,实际上也是这一套庞大社会监控系统的外围。

“凭我对中国政府的了解,他们太喜欢掩盖那些不想让人看到的东西了。”关恒说,“这件事勾起了我巨大的兴趣,尤其是我去过新疆却对此一无所知。我当时就特别想再去一次,去实地看一看到底是怎么回事。”

他很清楚,一个普通人以游客身份去做这件事,无异于“送死”。“我完全预料到了风险。”他语气平静。他开始像策划一场秘密行动一样做准备:他没有使用自己的专业设备,而是在网上租了一台长焦DV摄像机,以便在安全距离外拍摄。

他准备了两张SD卡。一张卡拍完后,立刻藏在车里一个隐蔽的角落;另一张无关紧要的空卡则插回DV里。“我怕万一被盘查。”他说,“至少他们不知道我拍了什么。”

2020年10月,关恒独自驾车驶向了那个他一年前去过的是非之地——新疆。

2 “漫游”新疆三天 逐一核实卫星坐标中的监禁设施

关恒的行程不是一次漫无目的的旅行,而是一场按图索骥的“解谜”。那张“地图”,就是BuzzFeed News (BFN) 报道中标记的怀疑是“拘留营”的卫星坐标。

他花了整整三天时间,在新疆的广阔土地上,逐一核实那些被标为灰色(低度可疑)、黄色(中度可疑)和红色(高度可疑)的坐标点。

关恒的第一个观察地点是哈密市。在到哈密市之前,他先去了一个叫“北村”的地方,那里有一个灰色标记(低度可疑)。那是个粉色的房子,没有铁丝网之类的,看起来也没什么人,不像是监禁设施。

之后,他开车进入哈密市区,找到了一个黄色标记,挂的牌子是“哈密市强制隔离戒毒所”。它位于闹市区,车水马龙,这让关恒产生了怀疑,“在闹市区的戒毒所,是拘留营的可能性并不高。”但紧接着,他找到了另一个黄色标记——“新疆生产建设兵团第十三师看守所”。

这个地方立刻让他绷紧了神经。它藏在一条小胡同的尽头,不仅看守所本身高墙林立,连紧挨着它的好几个院落,都同样用高墙和铁丝网围着,完全不是普通的家属院。这与报道中集中营的特征高度吻合。

为了掩护自己,关恒在离开时,特意在胡同口的商店买了点零食,并且“故意”用微信扫码付款。“万一被盘问,”他事后解释,“我至少有个理由说我为什么会出现在那条死胡同。”

第二天,关恒一直在公路上奔波。他途经三个县:木垒、吉木萨尔、阜康。他发现BFN的许多标记,最终都指向了各地现有的“看守所”或“拘留所”——木垒县看守所、吉木萨尔县拘留所、阜康市拘留所。在木垒县,他找到了两个灰色标记的“农牧民培训学校”和“职业教育中心”。虽然建筑看似已经废弃,但院墙上依然保留的铁丝网,像是在诉说着它们曾经的用途。

这一天的行程让他意识到,这场运动的规模,远比他想象的要大——当局不仅在建造新的设施,也在利用、改造和扩建所有现存的关押系统。

不过,这也是比较棘手的一点,因为哨塔和铁丝网等警戒设施本就是拘留所的一部分,单凭设施外观特征,很难判断其是否被作为关押维吾尔人的集中营所使用。

第三天,关恒开车经过了三座城市乌鲁木齐、达坂城、库尔勒。这是他此行收获最大,也最惊险的一天。

在乌鲁木齐郊区,他根据坐标找到了“乌鲁木齐市第二教育矫治局(戒毒所)”。他把车停远,假装成晨练的路人,用GoPro边走边拍。他不仅拍到了这个戒毒所,还在它周围发现了三个同样戒备森严的院落。在一个设施门口,他拍到了一辆正在卸货的蔬菜运输车——这是设施正在运作的证据。

紧接着,在附近一条名叫“高科路”的地方,他有了此行最关键的发现。路的一侧,是绵延不绝的巨大设施群,高墙、哨塔一应俱全,但在任何地图上都没有标识。关恒用长焦DV拉近镜头,成功拍到了建筑物顶部醒目的红色大字:“劳动改造,文化改造”。

当天下午,他前往达坂城。这是一个“红色标记”,藏在远离公路的荒野深处,连碎石路都没有。关恒把车停在水塘边,独自爬上一个高高的土坡。

“我当时除了紧张,还是紧张。”他回忆道。他趴在土坡上,镜头里是一个崭新、巨大、但似乎尚未启用的建筑设施。他拍完匆匆下山,才惊出一身冷汗——他发现自己爬的那个山坡顶上,居然有座房子,而他停车的水塘边,不知何时多了一个钓鱼的人。

他强作镇定,主动走上前去搭讪:“师傅,钓什么呢?”在确认对方没有注意到自己的可疑行为后,他才开车飞速离开。

最后一站是距离乌鲁木齐339公里的库尔勒。在这里,关恒要寻找的坐标指向了一个军营(门口有坦克)的背后。那是一个规模庞大、戒备森严的设施,唯一的入口,就是穿过军营。

当关恒试图把车开下路肩、靠近拍摄时,军营旁一个店铺里的人走了出来,一直死死地盯着他。

在被对峙的紧张气氛中,关恒急中生智。他猛踩油门,驾驶着底盘很高的SUV,在荒地里“漂移”、转圈,故意做出“测试车子性能”的玩车姿态。那个“店主”似乎被这个疯疯癫癫的司机搞糊涂了,看了一会儿,便无趣地回了屋。

就在对方转身的瞬间,关恒停稳车,拿出了他的长焦DV,拍摄下了他视频中的最后一幕。

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关恒所拍摄视频中的一个片段

3 海上漂流一天一夜 从巴哈马偷渡至美

影片制作完成了。关恒拥有了这颗“数字炸弹”,但他很快意识到一个致命的问题:他无法在不炸毁自己的前提下,按下那个“发布”键。

“我知道,影片做完没关系,可一旦发到网上,他们(警察)肯定会找到我。”关恒在采访中说。“如果我被控制了,这些影片要么发不出去,要么就会被删除,我的人身也会受到威胁。”

他能想到的唯一办法,是先离开中国。

但这颗炸弹的引信,被拉得无比漫长。自2020年疫情爆发后,中国国境一直封锁。关恒无处可去,只能抱着这些素材,在压抑和焦虑中等待。直到2021年夏天,窗口终于打开。7月4日,他从蛇口离境,后从香港出发,飞往了当时对中国护照免签的南美洲国家厄瓜多尔。

他在厄瓜多尔停留了两个多月,只为了一件事:打辉瑞疫苗。他无法信任中国的国产疫苗,但当时国内的疫苗政策正变得越来越严厉,“不打疫苗,健康码就是红码,寸步难行。”

打完两针疫苗,他飞往了另一个免签国——巴哈马。这里,距离他的最终目的地仅有一水之隔。他本想从中国代购一条船寄过来省钱,但巴哈马的签证转瞬即逝——他记忆中只有14天——物流却迟迟未到。2021年10月,他等不及了,只能在当地的海洋用品店,花掉了身上仅存的近3000美元,买下了一条小充气船和一个外挂发动机。然后在巴哈马的Freeport(自由港)下海,方向是美国的佛罗里达州。他从谷歌地图看到,海上直线距离大约是85英里。

据关恒讲述,他没有任何航海经验,不会划船,甚至严重晕船。这次出海,是他人生中第一次“开船”。他唯一的依仗,是一个机械指南针和一部存有GPS地图的手机。

“我当时在海上漂了将近23个小时。”他回忆说。他带了很多食物和水,但因为极度紧张,“全程只喝了一罐可乐”。这场旅程最大的威胁不是风浪,而是他那个简陋的发动机。

“我当时手头钱不多,没有买封闭式油箱,”他说,“只能拎着油壶,在晃动得非常厉害的船上,一次次地直接往发动机里灌油。”汽油洒得到处都是,整个小船弥漫着浓烈的汽油味,随时可能因一个火星而引爆。

“那艘船变成了一个漂浮的炸弹。”关恒说,“当时我确实有点后怕,因为一旦起火,我就不可能出现在美国了。”

他本计划在晚上登陆,以避人耳目。但在无尽的漂泊中,他唯一的念头就是“快点到达”。

第二天清晨,他远远看到了佛罗里达的海岸线。9点左右,小船靠岸。沙滩上已经有了早起散步的游客,其中一对老夫妻正向他这边走来。关恒的心提到了嗓子眼,他害怕这对夫妻报警。

他顾不上那条船,也顾不上船上散落的行李,背着自己最重要的背包,在小船冲上浅滩的瞬间,一跃而下,冲向岸边的灌木丛中。他躲在灌木丛里,大口喘气。过了一会儿,他看到一艘海岸警卫队的巡逻艇在近海驶过。但他已经安全了。

就这样,经过偷渡,关恒抵达了他向往的“自由世界”。

4 视频震撼网络 而他和家人付出了巨大代价

据关恒说,在巴哈马下海之前,他就已设置好了所拍视频的发布时间。“我当时并不知道自己能不能安全到美国。”他说,“我不能等到抵达后再发。” 关于新疆集中营的视频,在2021年10月5日,终于通过他的Youtube频道公之于众。

视频发布后立即引发了巨大反响。作为当时极为罕见的、来自中国公民的第一视角实地影像,关恒拍摄的视频迅速被德国之声自由亚洲电台等媒体报道和引用。更重要的是,它为BuzzFeed News (BFN) 的普利策获奖团队提供了关键的实地佐证。BFN的记者在接受德国之声和自由亚洲电台采访时,特别强调了关恒这份素材的非凡价值,他们赞美了拍摄者的勇气,并表示视频中的新信息证实了他们对新疆正在发生的事情的看法。

于此同时,作为这枚信息炸弹的“引爆者”,关恒本人则承受着超出他预期的巨大压力——一波来自中国国安和网络外宣的、针对他个人的巨大攻击立即在网上开启。

就在他发布视频后不久,一个名叫“理科男士K一米”的Youtube博主,发布了一个“人肉”视频,将关恒所有的个人信息——包括真实姓名、生日、毕业院校、家庭住址——扒得一干二净。这个叫“理科男士K一米”的博主,日常所发内容,基本是亲共立场。

“他们把关恒‘人肉’了。”2025年11月1日,在接受“中国人权”采访时,关恒的母亲罗女士说。她的声音因愤怒而有点颤抖,“当时下面的留言骂得非常难听,说关恒是汉奸,还说‘让他在美国最好被黑人兄弟给误杀’。”

与此同时,一场针对他YouTube频道的“围剿”开始了。关恒在采访中回忆:“他们先是以‘暴露隐私’(视频中拍到一名警卫)为由举报,YouTube就把我的视频下架了。”

他被迫申诉,并使用YouTube自带的工具,给那个画面打了马赛克。视频恢复上架后,对方发现这招有效,便开始“疯狂举报”他的所有视频。关恒的后台瞬间被海量的“违规通知”淹没。

这场精准的、由国家机器发动的“人肉”网暴和系统的技术围剿,在心理上击垮了关恒。

“我当时的心理压力非常大。”关恒回忆,“我基本上就不再关注了,主动不去看这些事情。”疯狂的网暴让他陷入了严重的抑郁。为了保护自己,他主动切断了和外界信息的联系。也正因如此,他甚至在这次被抓之前,都不知道自己所发布的视频在国际社会产生了怎样巨大的反响。他只知道自己在被官方有组织地“人肉”,他害怕了。

他躲了起来。但风暴的真正中心,却在他的故乡河南南阳炸开了。

据关恒和他的妈妈罗女士讲述,就在关恒的视频发布一个多月后,2022年1月,一场由国安主导的、针对他所有亲属的系统性“连坐”开始了。

“我从台湾回去(2023年底)的时候,他们(家人)每个人都非常紧张。”罗女士说,“很担心我会在机场就被扣起来,因为他们已经有过被传讯的经历了。”

据罗女士讲,她在河南老家以及省会郑州的四个姐妹,几乎在同一时间被当地国安分别传唤。“警察最后交代她们,”罗女士说,“如果有关恒的任何消息,要及时汇报。假如知情不报的话,后果你知道吧。”

2022年1月底,四个警察将关恒的父亲从家中带走,进行了一场从中午持续到晚上9点的审讯。警察当场收走了他的手机,拿去南阳市局“恢复资料”。当晚,警察又押着他父亲,前往关恒出国前居住的奶奶家,将他留在中国的电脑主机搜走,并开具了“扣押清单”。过了一个多月(2022年3月),国安再次提审了他的父亲。

国安人员还找到了关恒从小关系最亲密的姑姑。他们将关恒的姑姑和姑父分别带走,分开审讯。这场心理战彻底摧毁了关恒的姑姑。 “她(姑姑)吓得现在晚上都睡不着觉。”罗女士说,“她后来直接跟他(关恒父亲)说了一句很撕破脸的话:请你们不要再为关恒的事情来找我了!我们家人还要在这边生活,我怕影响到我的小孩,怕牵连到他们!请你们不要再来骚扰我了!’”

关恒当时并不知道这一切。当他以为自己只是一个人在纽约孤独地消化网暴的创伤时,他远在中国的整个家族,已经被国安彻底地“梳理”和“威慑”了一遍。

就这样,带着一身的创伤和对故土的彻底决裂,关恒在美国独自生活了三年。直到2025年的夏天,命运以一种更荒诞的方式,将他推入了另一个牢笼。

5 从一个牢笼到另一个牢笼

在美国的三年多里,关恒一直试图在孤独中重建生活。2021年10月25日,他在纽约递交了庇护申请,随即拿到了工卡,买了辆二手车,先是在纽约市靠开Uber和送外卖维生。后来,他转行去做了长途卡车司机,“因为做卡车司机天天住车上,就不需要住处了。”当他辞去卡车司机的工作后,他决定搬离纽约市。

“我特别喜欢上州的森林公园。”他说。为了寻求一个更安静、能亲近自然的环境,2025年春天,他从纽约市搬到了奥尔巴尼附近的一个小镇。

他只是一个房客。他合租的房子里,住着一对来自中国的夫妻,他们是这栋房子的“二房东”。平静的生活持续到2025年这个清晨,ICE执法人员剧烈的敲门声,打破了这份平静。

在ICE的抓捕现场,关恒出示了自己的工卡和有关庇护的文件等来证明身份,但看起来,在ICE——隶属于国土安全部(DHS)的执法逻辑中,关恒在纽约移民局(USCIS)的身份似乎无关紧要。

仅仅因为是从海上入境这一点,就作为“非法移民”被逮捕的关恒,先是被带到ICE办公室,随后被送进奥尔巴尼附近的县监狱,关了一天;又被转移到布法罗的移民拘留中心,关了近一周;最后,他被送到了现在的关押地——布鲁姆县监狱。

起初,他被关押在移民监区。“那里还好。”他说,“跟其他国家的移民关在一起,大家都是同类人,有共同话题,可以一起打球、打牌,很热闹。”

但一个月后,他被转到了一个只有美国籍犯人(American inmates)的监区——据他所说,其中很多是性犯罪者。

他再次陷入了彻底的孤岛状态。“跟他们就没什么可聊的了。”在电话中,他情绪低落地说,“大厅里的空气很差,我待久了会一直咳嗽,所以大部分时间,我只能一个人待在院子里或者我自己的房间里。”

正是在这种极致的孤独中,他开始反思自己的人生。

“在这里面,我遇见一位狱友,她也是移民。”关恒说,“她对我说了一句话,对我影响很深。她说:‘两个人总是要好过一个人。’”

这句话击中了他。“我当时就在想,”他反思道,“如果我有家人或朋友陪伴,我可能就不会搬去上州,也就不会被抓。如果身边有个伴,我的心态也会好很多。”

他意识到,那个让他得以完成新疆壮举的“孤勇”特质,也正是他此刻的阿喀琉斯之踵。

“在之前,我一直觉得我是一个孤独的战士,所有问题都要自己解决。”他说。“但当我真的进了监狱才发现,哪怕个人能力再强,我什么都做不了。我只能完全依赖外界对我的帮助。”

如今的他,开始意识到,必须走出过去刻意独来独往的心理状态,依靠美国的公民社会和人权组织,来阻止美国的执法机构,将他遣返回那个他曾冒死揭露黑幕、一旦遣返后果将不堪设想的中国。

6 跨越铁窗的营救 以及“我做的是正确的事”

就在关恒被关押在布鲁姆县监狱、面临被遣返的巨大风险时,多份证言信送到了他的律师手中。这些信件揭示了一个关恒自己都未曾知晓的事实:他孤身冒险拍摄的素材,已成为了国际社会关注中国新疆人权危机的重要拼图。

第一份信件,来自那个曾激励他出发的起点。当年启发关恒前往新疆的BuzzFeed News普利策获奖记者团队(Megha Rajagopalan, Alison Killing, Christo Buschek),在得知关恒的处境后,联名写了一封对关恒的支持信。他们在信中确认,正是关恒提供的“地面实证(Ground Truth)”,填补了他们卫星影像分析中缺失的最后一块拼图。

“关先生在巨大的风险下,为我们的调查提供了关键的佐证。他的勇气非同寻常…… 他没有任何其它合理理由会出现在许多这些拘押地点附近,因为它们通常位于偏远地区……若被抓获,他面临的危险将大幅增加。”BFN团队在信中写道。他们特别指出,关恒提供的证据帮助证实了达坂城新监狱的存在——这直接戳穿了中国政府声称“再教育营已关闭”的谎言。

联名信最后提到:“我们相信,如果关先生被遣返回中国,他将面临巨大的危险。因此,我们呼吁美国向关先生提供庇护,并终止对他的拘押以及对其被遣返的威胁。”

第二份信件,来自纪录片《杂音和噪音》(All Static & Noise)的制片人英杰 (Janice M. Englehart)。

关恒的镜头被收录在这部反映维吾尔人生存状况的纪录片中,该片曾在新西兰、澳大利亚、日本和英国放映,用以揭露中国政府的虐待行为。

Janice在支持信中说到:“关先生冒着自身及家人的安全风险,提供了重要的视频证据,这些证据与卫星影像相互印证,确认了中国政府在新疆维吾尔自治区运营的集中营的存在……

他在2020年的努力,为研究人员、记者和纪录片制作人提供了支持,使他们能够自信地理解和传播中国新疆这一对许多西方记者、外交官和访客来说长期不可接近地区正在发生的情况。”

在信的结尾,Janice直言:“关先生的行为完全符合美国国家利益。”她警告称,如果关恒被遣返,极可能因“间谍”或“勾结外国势力”的指控而面临酷刑甚至死亡。

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《杂音和噪音》纪录片封面

另一份支持关恒的证言和信件,来自中国人权执行主任周锋锁,他表示,早在2021年11月17日,关恒抵达美国仅仅几天后,他就在推特上注意到了这个年轻人,并主动联系了他。“我当时就认为他是一个凭着良心做事的人,”周锋锁回忆道。但他同时也敏锐地察觉到了关恒身上的创伤,“他很低调,甚至有些躲闪,即便到了美国,依然生活在某种‘躲藏’之中。”

周锋锁指出,“这(维族议题)对汉人是一个高压红线,如果他被遣返,因为这个事件所造成的社会影响,他肯定会面临非常严重的刑期。”更重要的是,周锋锁认为关恒的遭遇揭示了当下许多寻求自由者的共同处境:“他们向往自由、逃离暴政,却生活在多重的恐惧之中。” 周锋锁在证言中写道,“一方面要躲避被抓进美国移民监狱,另一方面又要躲避来自中共的跨国镇压。”

这正是关恒过去三年的真实写照——在“双重恐惧”的夹缝中生存,直到被其中一方捕获。

“美国是一个热爱自由的人所建立起来的国家。”周锋锁最后呼吁,“一个热爱自由、反抗暴政且为此付出巨大代价的人,应该能够留下,应该是属于这个国家的。”

与此同时,世界维吾尔代表大会执行委员会主席茹仙·阿巴斯(Rushan Abbas)和知名维吾尔诗人阿不都外力·阿尤普(Abduweli Ayup)也纷纷站出来,声援这位曾为他们民族发声的汉人。

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2021年11月中国人权执行主任周锋锁和关恒的合影

“被遣返回去的话,他真的就死定了。” 2025年11月10日,关恒的母亲罗女士在采访中颤抖地说。罗女士如今身在台湾,她对儿子的处境十分担忧,目前她最大的心愿是美国法庭能做出公正裁决,阻止ICE的遣返程序,让她的儿子留在美国。这样他至少是安全的。

罗女士的恐惧并非空穴来风,类似的悲剧早已上演。毕业于美国阿默斯特学院的青年学者冯斯瑜就是前车之鉴。她曾于2017年在新疆大学民俗研究中心访学,与该中心主任、知名人类学家热依拉·达吾提合作研究维吾尔族民俗文化。然而,热依拉·达吾提于2017年12月被抓,并在次年被判处无期徒刑;冯斯瑜也在2018年突遭拘捕,最终被重判15年。

如今,来自普利策得主、电影制片人、维吾尔领袖和人权活动家的努力,正试图构建一道“保护墙”,阻挡ICE的遣返程序,以保护关恒,并让他重获自由。

2025年10月20日,在纽约州的监狱里,身穿囚服的关恒,正在等待着12月的移民听证会。当本文作者接通他的电话,告诉他,他冒死拍摄的视频是普利策获奖报道的关键佐证时,他听起来颇为讶异。

他说自己并不为自己曾经做过的事情后悔。经历了这一切,他反而更加认为,自己所做的事情是“正确”的。

“正因为我现在切身感受到了失去自由的滋味,我更能体会到那些身处集中营中的人们的感受。” 他在监狱的电话中说,“我现在需要外界的帮助,他们同样也需要。所以,我仍然认为我当时做了正确的事情。”

“我觉得这是中国政府正在犯下的一项巨大的、不受任何监管和控制的罪恶。” 他补充道,“它给无数家庭造成了分别和失去自由的痛苦。所以,即便是现在,我依然坚定地反对中国政府在新疆所做的一切。”

但作为一个已经失去自由的“非法移民”,他如今唯一的希望,只有来自外界的律师、记者和人权组织的紧急救援。

12月15日,关恒的庇护申请案件就要在纽约开庭。他的命运悬而未决,取决于一个问题:这个他不惜一切代价奔赴的自由世界,最终会选择保护他,还是将他送回那个他曾冒死揭露黑幕、最终为了自由与正义而仓皇逃离的故乡?

中国前财长王丙乾逝世 赵乐际等赴广州送别

中国前财长王丙乾上星期一(12月8日),享年100岁,遗体在广州火化。中共政治局常委、全国人大常委会委员长赵乐际等受中共中央委托,星期天(14日)专程前往广州市殡仪馆为王丙乾送别。

据新华社报道,王丙乾病重期间和逝世后,习近平、李强、赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希、韩正、胡锦涛等前往医院看望或通过各种形式,对王丙乾逝世表示沉痛哀悼并向王丙乾的亲属表示深切慰问。

赵乐际等12月14日专程前往广州市殡仪馆为王丙乾送别,并慰问王丙乾的亲属。

新华社报道,14日上午,广州市殡仪馆庄严肃穆,哀乐低回。正厅上方悬挂着黑底白字的横幅“沉痛悼念王丙乾同志”,横幅下方是王丙乾的遗像。王丙乾的遗体安卧在鲜花翠柏丛中,身上覆盖着鲜红的中国共产党党旗。

中共和国家有关领导人前往送别或以各种方式表示哀悼。中央和国家机关有关部门和广东省负责人,王丙乾生前友好和家乡代表也前往送别。

新华社上星期发布关于王丙乾逝世的讣告,形容王丙乾是中国共产党的优秀党员,久经考验的忠诚的共产主义战士,无产阶级革命家,中国财经战线和社会主义法制建设的杰出领导人。

公开资料显示,王丙乾1925年6月生,河北蠡县人。1940年8月起,历任冀中九地委机关收发员、研究员,冀中九分区白洋县县委秘书、冀中九分区审计委员会秘书,冀中区审计委员会审计干事、财经办事处审计干事,冀中行署财政厅审计科员,华北人民政府财政部审计处副科长。

1964年11月至1980年8月,王丙乾历任财政部党组成员、预算司司长,革委会副主任,副部长、党组副书记。1980年8月,王丙乾任财政部部长、党组书记。1983年6月,任国务委员兼财政部部长、党组书记。

新华社星期天发布的王丙乾生平内容提到:“面对‘文化大革命’后国民经济比例严重失调的情况,他坚决贯彻党的十一届三中全会精神,及时把财政工作的重点转移到社会主义现代化建设上来,突出分配重点,提高职工工资收入水平,扩大对农业、轻工业的投资,增加消费品生产,开辟新的财源,迅速扭转了财政连续赤字的局面,稳定了物价,有力推动国民经济健康发展。”

王丙乾生平文章也提到,他“积极推动财政体制改革,推进实行‘划分收支、分级包干’的财政体制,由过去‘一灶吃饭’改为‘分灶吃饭’,明确了各级政府的财权事权,调动了各级政府积极性,有效激发了经济活力”。

1993年3月,王丙乾在八届全国人大一次会议上当选为全国人大常委会副委员长,同月任八届全国人大常委会党组成员,分工联系环境与资源保护委员会。1998年3月,王丙乾不再担任全国人大常委会副委员长职务。

王丙乾生平文章提到,从领导岗位上退下来以后,“他仍然关心党和国家事业发展,心系人民群众生活,关注财政工作和财税改革。党的十八大以来,他坚决拥护和支持以习近平同志为核心的党中央领导,坚定支持党风廉政建设和反腐败斗争。”

澳洲海滩枪击案:中国领馆未收到中国公民伤亡报告

澳大利亚悉尼著名景点邦迪海滩发生枪击案,中国驻悉尼总领馆暂未收到中国公民伤亡报告。

据中国央视新闻报道,截至目前,领馆未收到邦迪海滩枪击事件中关于中国公民伤亡的相关报告。领馆正密切关注事态进展。

这起针对犹太人的枪击案发生在星期天(12月14日),导致16人死亡。枪手为一对父子,其中一人被击毙。

Boy, 15, charged with murder after alley death

ADRIAN HARMS/BBC The outside of the Wheatsheaf pub - a white brick building with a pitched black roof. There are Christmas lights lining the roof.ADRIAN HARMS/BBC
The man was found beside the Wheatsheaf pub in Ewell

A 15-year-old boy has been charged with murder following the death of a man in an alleyway near a pub in Surrey.

Police were called to the scene near the Wheatsheaf pub, on Kingston Road, Ewell, at about 15:30 GMT on Tuesday where, they said, the victim, a man in his 20s, was found with "injuries consistent with a stabbing". He was pronounced dead at the scene.

The boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was arrested on Thursday and is due to appear at Guildford Magistrates Court on Monday.

A second 15-year-old boy, a 17-year-old boy and a 20-year-old man also arrested have since been released on police bail.

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U.S. Military Plane and JetBlue Flight Nearly Collided Over Caribbean, Radio Traffic Shows

The Air Force refueling tanker was flying without its location transponder activated and could not be detected by air traffic control.

© Ricardo Arduengo/Reuters

A U.S. Air Force air-to-air refueling tanker took off from an airport in St. Croix in late November. A similar type of aircraft nearly collided with a JetBlue flight on Friday over the Caribbean, according to air traffic control radio communications.

House Republicans Accuse D.C. Police of Manipulating Crime Statistics

The committee cited interviews with police commanders in an effort to buttress President Trump’s federal takeover of law enforcement and the National Guard deployment in the capital city.

© Eric Lee for The New York Times

The committee said interviews with the city police’s seven district commanders showed the department’s leadership had put an aggressive emphasis on lowering crime numbers.

'Everyone says it'll never be me' - Brown University student on surviving two mass shootings

BBC Mia Tretta sits in front of a window in her dorm in Brown University with a street in the background with white snow on the ground. She is wearing a jumper and gold hoop earrings. BBC
Mia Tretta, a student at Brown University, survived a US school shooting in 2019

With the holiday break just around the corner, 21-year-old Mia Tretta was in her dorm with a friend studying for their final exams.

Just like other students at Brown University, she was distraught after receiving an active shooter alert from the university's department of public safety.

But the difference for her is she has lived through this once before.

Mia was shot in the 2019 mass shooting at Saugus High School in Santa Clarita, California.

She told the BBC it shattered her sense of safety and innocence.

"Everyone always tells themselves it'll never be me," she said.

Mia Tretta Mia Tretta is in a hospital bed wearing hospital gown with a black top draped over it that says Saugus Strong in white letters. A surgeon sits next to her in blue surgical scrubs. Both of them are smiling. Mia Tretta
Mia spent more than a week in the hospital recovering after the 2019 shooting

A 16-year-old boy shot her in the stomach and four others; two of them died including her best friend.

A junior in high school at the time, Mia spent more than a week in the hospital recovering.

She still has bullet fragments in her stomach, and has had multiple surgeries for nerve pain and to fix a hole in her eardrum.

Attending Brown University, on the other side of the country, in Rhode Island, was meant to get her far away from what happened, in order to feel safe again.

She told herself at least it wouldn't happen again, until it did.

"Gun violence doesn't care if you've already been shot before, and it doesn't care what community you're in," she said.

"It's an epidemic that touches every single community."

Mia now feels a mixture of fear, confusion and anger. Americans, she says, shouldn't accept mass shootings as a fact of life.

Bloomberg via Getty Images US President Joe Biden applauds as Mia Tretta, a victim of gun violence, speaks during an event in the Rose Garden of the White House in April 2022. BIden is wearing a navy suit and blue tie and Mia is wearing a pink dress and coat and stnding in from of a podiumBloomberg via Getty Images
Mia spoke about gun violence during a visit to the White House in 2022

Her generation has grown up practising active shooter drills in schools, and she is not the only student at Brown University who has now lived through their second school shooting.

At a press conference on Sunday, the mayor of Providence, Brett Smiley, was asked what could be done to stop the "uniquely American experience" of mass shootings on campuses.

He was reluctant to weigh in with the investigation ongoing and the victims still recovering, but he shared a conversation he had had with one of the injured students.

"When I was at the hospital today - one of students that showed tremendous courage literally said to me, 'you know that active shooter drill they made me do in high school it actually helped me in the moment'," he said.

"Which at the same time provided me hope, and was so sad. They shouldn't have to do active shooter drills but it helped, and the reason it helped and the reason we do these drills is because it's so damn frequent."

Driving around campus, there is still a heavy police presence even though the lockdown has been lifted.

One student, who was leaving for the holidays, said: "Our perfect bubble, that we've been in for so long, just shattered."

Strictly finalists confirmed after dance-off decider

BBC/PA The four remaining couples line up on the ballroom floor. Karen Carney is wearing a blue dress. George Clarke and his partner Alexis Warr wear red. Balvinder Sopal is in an orange dress and Amber Davies wears a dark ballgown.BBC/PA
The semi-finalists have had their fate revealed

The three finalists for this year's Strictly Come Dancing have been confirmed, after one couple was eliminated from the competition in Sunday night's results show.

In the bottom two this week were EastEnders actor Balvinder Sopal and her partner Julian Caillon - for a record sixth time this series - and reality TV star Amber Davies and her partner Nikita Kuzmin.

After a dance-off, the judges voted to send Sopal home.

Davies, who survived the dance-off for the second week running, will join social media star George Clarke and former England footballer Karen Carney in next week's final.

BBC/Guy Levy Dancers hug in middle of ballroomBBC/Guy Levy

The EastEnders star, who performed a Salsa and a Waltz as her two semi-final dances, said she had "absolutely adored every single minute".

Speaking on Sunday night's results show after her elimination, Sopal said: "All the dance-offs, all the challenges, but just more than anything, just being in this building and dancing on this floor with such an amazing human being.

"It was my 'Yes Year', and I said yes to Strictly. My family, we've had some hard times, but they've been here."

She also paid tribute to her dance partner Caillon, saying: "You've been brilliant in every sense of the word.

"When I wobbled, and when I felt really brilliant about the dance and got the steps right, you've just held me in your hands and you've gone, 'Bal, we've got this.'

"I've never felt alone on this floor, and I just want you to remember me. Don't replace me too soon!"

Caillon said Sopal "embodies" what Strictly Come Dancing is about.

"Her spirit is unbreakable, and you have shown me that I'm actually dreaming too small, and Bal can inspire us that whatever any of us want in life, all you have to have is the desire to go after it."

BBC/Guy Levy Tess Daly, Balvinder Sopal & Julian Caillon during the Strictly Come Dancing results showBBC/Guy Levy

The celebrities performed two dances each on Saturday.

Carney and her partner Carlos Gu topped the leader board for their performance, after receiving a near perfect score of 78 out of a possible 80.

The results show also featured a surprise for departing presenters Tess Daly and Claudia Winkleman.

Following a highlights package of their best moments working on the show, the pair were each awarded their own unique golden Glitterball Trophy.

BBC/Guy Levy Claudia Winkleman and Tess Daly smiling while holding miniature glitterball trophiesBBC/Guy Levy

There was also a festive performance from Kylie Minogue of her new single XMAS accompanied by 16 Strictly professional dancers, plus a special performance of the 90s classic Sit Down from the band James.

The remaining three couples will perform during next weekend's final.

It will air on BBC One and BBC iPlayer at 19:00 GMT on Saturday 20 December, with the winner crowned that evening.

BBC/Guy Levy Kylie Minogue singing while wearing a white dress as dancers wearing festive blues and reds dance around herBBC/Guy Levy

69%日本人支持天皇由女性继承人担任 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

14/12/2025 - 22:24

一份今年9至 10月间的日本全国民调显示:赞成日本天皇由女性担任的受访者比例达到69%。

该民调提出的问题涉及:是否应修改规定天皇皇位继承方式的“皇室典范”?以承认女性可担任天皇,回答“赞成”的受访者高达69%,回答“无法判断”者为24%,回答“反对”者仅7%。

中央社转引读卖新闻社的报道说:调查也显示,对于未来皇位继承可能面临困难,回答“感到不安”的受访者高达68%,明显多于回答“不感到不安”的31%。

报导指出,在採用邮寄方式进行的调查中,过去曾于2018、2020、2022年都询问过女性天皇议题。最近一次2022年调查中,赞成女性天皇的受访者有70%、无法判断24%、反对为6%,与本次结果相近。

目前日本皇室共有16名成员,其中有皇位继承资格的仅有3人,包括日皇德仁的弟弟、60岁的秋篠宫文仁亲王、他的19岁长子悠仁亲王,以及高龄90岁的上皇明仁胞弟常陆宫正仁亲王。

日皇德仁与皇后雅子育有一名独生女、即今年12月1日满24岁的爱子内亲王。她目前在日本红十字会任职,也开始参与更多公务,11月访问老挝完成首次海外公务,被认为表现活跃。

然而,现行日本“皇室典范”第一条规定,“皇位由属于皇统的男系男子继承”,如果要实现“女性天皇”的话,就必须修改条文。

此外,日本的皇位继承,目前仅限父系有天皇血统的“男系”天皇,没有母系有天皇血统的“女系”天皇。调查询问民众是否该继续维持“男系”或是也该承认“女系”?,结果回答“应承认女系”的人占64%,大幅超过回答“应维持男系”的13%,回答“无法判断”的人为22%。

从调查分析可见,无论是对“女性天皇”或是“女系天皇”,女性受访者的赞同比例都明显较高。

本次调查于9月24日至10月31日实施,以日本全国3000名选民为对象,共回收2004份有效问卷,回收率67%。



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