Appeals Court to Consider on Tuesday if Trump Can Control National Guard in L.A.
© Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times
© Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times
Thousands of Britons are stranded in Israel and unable to leave, as Iran and Israel continue to attack each other in an intensifying conflict that has been ongoing for days.
The Israeli airspace is closed until further notice and all flights have been grounded, with no sign of an imminent pause in hostilities.
Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel over the past few days in retaliation for Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure on Friday.
Speaking to the BBC, British nationals spoke of sleepless nights punctuated by the wail of sirens, constant trips back and forth to bomb shelters and the uncertainty of not knowing when they will be able to get home.
Many of those stranded are pressing for the UK government to do more to help them, but the BBC understands that, at this stage, there are no plans for an evacuation.
The UK government has advised against all travel to Israel and told British citizens in the country to follow local guidance.
Deborah Claydon, 41, a teacher from Hertfordshire, flew to Israel last Wednesday for what was supposed to be a three-day trip to attend her cousin's wedding.
She now finds herself trapped in Herzliya on Israel's central coast with her 81-year-old mother, as missiles fly overhead.
Three hours after they returned from the wedding last Thursday evening, "we heard sirens and had to go to the bomb shelter," she told the BBC.
"It was a trip of two halves: from elation to fear."
Every night since, Ms Claydon says she has been woken multiple times by alarms warning of incoming missiles and a count-down to get to a shelter. They are lucky, she says, as their hotel has a well-equipped shelter but "it's scary and a lot of people are panicky".
"I'm staying positive because my mum's here with me," the mother-of-three says. "But it's horrible. I don't want to be here anymore. I don't want to be woken up three times a night thinking I might be hit by a missile. I want to get home to my job and my kids."
At least 24 people have been killed in Israel since Friday, according to the Israeli prime minister's office. Iran's health ministry said that as of Sunday, Israeli strikes had killed more than 200 people across the country.
As hostilities entered the fifth day on Tuesday, both countries vowed further retaliation.
Tel Aviv's main international airport was shuttered on Friday and will not open until further notice, authorities have said. All flights to and from Israel have been suspended and thousands cancelled.
Around 40,000 tourists are stuck in the country, Israel's Ministry of Tourism has said. Among them are those who travelled to Tel Aviv for its annual Pride parade, which had been due to take place on Friday but was cancelled after hostilities broke out.
Some people are considering leaving Israel via land crossings to neighbouring Jordan or Egypt and getting flights from there.
On Tuesday, Ms Claydon, along with a group of tourists from other countries, began a long journey by car to the border with Egypt where she plans to travel to Sharm El-Sheik and fly home.
She said it is "too risky" to bring her mother, who will stay with her brother in a neighbouring town.
Speaking to the BBC ahead of the journey, Ms Claydon said she was "terrified".
"It's a very unstable, uncertain situation, not knowing am I safer to go or am I safer to stay? Neither is safe. You don't know when the airport's going to open. Could be days, could be weeks."
For some Britons, travelling by land is an impossibility.
Hannah Lyons-Singer, 43, arrived in Jaffa last Tuesday to care for her father, after he was hospitalised while on holiday in Israel with her mother. A few hours after he was discharged following a heart procedure, "war broke out," she says.
The mother-of-three, from London, said the situation was a strain on her elderly parents, particularly when her father, who is in his eighties, should be recuperating.
"We hear the explosions outside," she told the BBC. "Some of them sound really close. There's been direct hits within a couple of kilometres of us both over the past two nights."
She added that it is "stifling hot" in the shelter.
Ms Lyons-Singer is desperate to get home to her children and her father requires further treatment in the UK, but making the hours-long journey to the border isn't feasible in his current condition.
She has called on the UK Government to better support British citizens to return home.
"There's no guidance other than a warning not to travel to Israel," she says.
"They could be offering secure travel to Egypt or reassuring us that once the airspace opens, they will provide evacuation routes, but they haven't offered us any help at all.
"My fear is that even once the airspace opens, commercial flights may not immediately start again."
Howard Youngerwood, 79, from London, travelled to Israel earlier this month for his granddaughter's Bar Mitzvah. The Jewish coming-of-age ceremony was cut short when hostilities erupted and they were ordered to evacuate the kibbutz near Jerusalem.
"We are exhausted," he said. "We spend a lot of time - hobbling in my case - getting to the shelters. It is taking a toll, especially when you hear of the casualties."
The retired judge, who has several ailments, including mobility issues, is unable to attempt a land crossing and doesn't consider it a safe option.
Angus Edy, 52, who is stuck in Tel Aviv with his 22-year-old son, Samuel, said the situation was "horrendous" and the "lack of care" shown by the UK government towards stranded Brits "shocking".
Since their flight was cancelled on Friday, they have been in and out of shelters. On Monday, after they felt the reverberation of a massive explosion from their shelter at the Gymnasia Isrotel, opposite the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, the hotel announced that it was closing and said they should seek a shelter further underground.
"It seems like the situation is getting more and more and more difficult," he said.
Mr Edy added that they had been phoning the British Consulate every day who had advised them to register for email alerts.
"We even went to the Embassy in person [on Monday] and they wouldn't even speak to us. It's just shocking the lack of care."
The Foreign Office (FCDO) has advised against all travel to Israel due to a "fast-moving situation that poses significant risks" which has "the potential to deteriorate further, quickly and without warning".
Official advice also advises against all travel to Iran.
Tourists from other nations are also stranded. The BBC spoke to the Joyner family, from the US, on Sunday, who were among those wrangling with when and how to attempt to leave.
Poland has said it will begin evacuating around 200 of its citizens in the coming days.
On Monday, deputy foreign minister Henryka Moscicka-Dendys said those "stuck as tourists" would leave via Jordan's capital Amman and then fly to Warsaw.
Meanwhile, the German foreign ministry has called on nationals in both Iran and Israel to enter their contact details in an online emergency system. About 4,000 have done so in Israel and about 1,000 in Iran. A spokesperson said there were no current evacuation plans from either country.
But other nations have evacuated its citizens - on Tuesday morning, a Czech government plane landed in Prague carrying 66 people from Israel, the defence minister confirmed.
Some 100,000 Israelis are estimated to be abroad and unable to return to Israel. Authorities have advised Israelis not to attempt land crossings due to security risks and await safer travel options.
Israeli forces have killed more than 51 Palestinians and wounded many more after opening fire near an aid distribution site in southern Gaza, witnesses and rescuers say.
The Hamas-run civil defence agency said Israeli troops fired on crowds near the aid site in Khan Younis. More than 200 people were reportedly injured.
The Israeli military has told the BBC it is looking into the reports.
It is the latest, and potentially the deadliest, of the almost daily shootings that have been taking place recently near aid distribution sites in Gaza.
Witnesses say that Israeli forces opened fire and shelled an area near a junction to the east of Khan Younis, where thousands of Palestinians had been gathering in the hope of getting flour from a World Food Programme (WFP) site, which also includes a community kitchen nearby.
A local journalist and eyewitnesses said Israeli drones fired two missiles, followed shortly after by a shell from an Israeli tank positioned between 400 and 500m away from the crowd. The explosions caused many casualties.
The crowd had assembled near a key road leading to the town of Bani Suheila, an area that has seen weeks of ongoing Israeli military operations.
Nasser Hospital, the main functioning medical facility in the area, has been overwhelmed by the number of casualties. It is so overcrowded that the many wounded are lying on the floor as medical staff treat their injuries.
In a statement the IDF said "a gathering was identified adjacent to an aid distribution truck that got stuck in the area of Khan Younis, and in proximity to IDF troops operating in the area."
It said it was "aware of reports regarding a number of injured individuals from IDF fire following the crowd's approach" and the incident was under review.
On Monday, the UN human rights chief Volker Turk said Israel was weaponising food and called for an investigation into the shootings near aid sites.
Addressing the UN Human Rights Council on Monday, he said: "Israel's means and methods of warfare are inflicting horrifying, unconscionable suffering on Palestinians in Gaza."
At least 14 people have been killed overnight and dozens more wounded in Russian strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, officials say.
It was one of the largest bombardments of the capital since the beginning of the full-scale invasion more than three years ago.
Ukraine's interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said a total of 440 drones and 32 missiles had been launched at the country.
Meanwhile, Russian air defence units intercepted and destroyed 147 Ukrainian drones overnight, Moscow's defence ministry said.
The strikes on Kyiv lasted more than nine hours – sending residents fleeing to underground shelters from before midnight until after sunrise.
Officials said a ballistic missile hit a nine-storey apartment building in one district, with a total of 27 districts of the city coming under fire.
"Waking up in utter nightmare: people trapped under rubble and full buildings collapsed," Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko wrote on X.
Klymenko said rescue teams were still working to free people.
Loud explosions rocked the city, along with the rattle of the machine guns used by mobile Ukrainian air defence units to shoot down drones.
More sirens later in the morning disrupted rescue operations in the city, hampering emergency workers searching the rubble for survivors.
Russia has intensified its air attacks against Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, with a tactic of sending large waves of drones and decoys designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.
Kyiv has launched attacks of its own, as direct talks between the warring sides failed to secure a ceasefire or significant breakthrough.
President Volodymyr Zelensky called Russia's most recent wave of strikes "pure terrorism".
He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of carrying out the large scale strikes "solely because he can afford to continue this war".
"It is bad when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to this," he said, adding: "It is the terrorists who should feel the pain, not normal, peaceful people."
Drone strikes also hit the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa, killing one person and injuring at least 10 others, Klymenko said.
Zelenksy had been hoping to speak with the US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday but Trump cut short his stay amid the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
The news will come as a blow to Zelensky and his administration, which had been hoping to secure US support at the conference for Ukraine's strategic and military goals.
Every time Aryan Asari heard the sound of an airplane, he would go darting out of the house to look for it.
Spotting planes was something of a hobby for him, his father Maganbhai Asari said. Aryan loved the roaring sound of the engine fill the air and then grow louder as the plane cruised above him, leaving behind chalky threads of contrail in the sky,
But now, the very thought of it makes him sick.
Last Thursday, the 17-year-old had been on the terrace of Mr Asari's house in Ahmedabad city, making videos of airplanes, when an Air India Dreamliner 787-8 crashed right before his eyes and burst into flames, killing 241 on board. Nearly 30 people were also killed on the ground.
The moment was captured by Aryan on his phone.
"I saw the plane. It was going down and down. Then it wobbled and crashed right before my eyes," he told BBC Gujarati in an interview earlier this week.
The video, now a crucial clue for investigators trying to find the cause of the crash, has sent ripples through the news media and put Aryan - a high school student - at the centre of one of the worst aviation disasters in the country's history.
"We have been swamped by interview requests. Reporters have been milling around my house day and night asking to speak to him," Mr Asari told the BBC.
The incident - and what has followed since - has had a "devastating impact" on Aryan, who is traumatised by what he saw. "My son is so scared that he has stopped using his phone," Mr Asari said.
A retired army soldier, who now works with the city's metro service, Mr Asari has been staying for three years in a neighbourhood close to the airport. He recently moved to a small room located on the terrace of a three-storey building, with a clear view of the city skyline.
His wife and two children - Aryan and his elder sister - live in their ancestral village near the border between Gujarat and Rajasthan states.
"This was Aryan's first time in Ahmedabad. Actually, it was the first time in his life that he left the village," Mr Asari said.
"Whenever I'd call, Aryan would ask if I could spot airplanes from our terrace and I would tell him you could see hundreds of them streaking the sky."
Aryan, he explained, was an aeroplane enthusiast and liked looking at them as they flew in the sky over his village. The idea that he could see them much more closely from the terrace of his father's new home was very appealing to him.
An opportunity presented itself last week when Mr Asari's daughter, who wants to become a police officer, travelled to Ahmedabad to write the entrance examination.
Aryan decided to accompany her. "He told me he wanted to buy new notebooks and clothes," Mr Asari said.
The siblings arrived at their father's house around noon on Thursday, roughly an hour-and-a-half before the crash.
The family ate lunch together, after which Mr Asari left for work, leaving the children at home.
Aryan stepped out on the terrace and started making videos of the house to show to his friends. That's when he spotted the Air India plane and began filming it, he told BBC Gujarati.
Aryan soon realised that something was not quite right about the aircraft: "It was shaking, moving left and right," he said.
As the plane went on a downward spiral, he kept filming it, unable to grasp what was about to happen.
But when thick smoke filled the air and fire spewed out of the buildings, he finally realised what he had just witnessed.
He sent the video to his father and called him up.
"He sounded so frightened - 'I saw it papa, I saw it crash,' he said to me and kept asking me what would happen to him. I told him to sit tight and not to worry," Mr Asari said. "But he was beside himself in horror."
Mr Asari also asked his son to not share the video further. However, too scared and shocked, Aryan sent it to a few of his friends. "The next thing we knew, the clip was everywhere."
The next few days were a nightmare for the family.
Neighbours, reporters and camera persons flooded Mr Asari's small house day and night, requesting to speak to Aryan. "We could do nothing to stop them," he said.
The family also received a visit from the police, who took Aryan to the station and recorded his statement.
Mr Asari clarified, that contrary to reports, Aryan was not detained, but that police questioned him for a few hours about what he saw.
"My son was so disturbed by then that we decided to send him back to the village."
Back at home, Aryan has resumed school but is "still not feeling like himself. His mother tells me that every time his phone rings, he gets scared", Mr Asari said.
"I know he will be fine with time. But I don't think my son will try looking for airplanes in the sky again," he added.
Additional reporting by Roxy Gagdekar, BBC Gujarati, in Ahmedabad.
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Donald Trump's family business is launching a new Trump-branded phone service, in its latest plan to cash in on the US president's name.
The Trump Organization, which is run by his sons, said it planned to sell a gold-coloured, made-in-America smart phone for $499, along with mobile phone service for a monthly fee of $47.45 - a reference to their father serving as the country's 47th and 45th president.
The announcement was light on details, including the name of the business partner that will run the service and is licensing the name.
Ethics watchdogs said the latest venture represented another means for potential corruption and conflicts of interest.
"It's unbelievable that the Trump family has created yet another way for President Trump to personally profit while in office," said Meghan Faulkner, communications director for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).
Trump has said he has put his business interests in a trust, which is managed by his children. The White House has maintained he acts on the interests of all Americans.
But Ms Faulkner said the latest venture raised familiar issues, including whether the new business will win customers from people hoping to influence Trump and how the president will craft policies and regulation for an industry in which his family now has a stake.
The Trump Organization did not respond to questions about its business partner and criticisms about potential ethics issues.
In announcing its plans, it said "hard-working Americans deserve a wireless service that's affordable, reflects their values, and delivers reliable quality they can count on".
It pitched a policy of "discounted" international calls to families with members serving outside the US in the military.
The announcement said the mobile service would have customer support staff based in the US to answer questions, as well as the gold-coloured phone, which is currently available for pre-order.
The deal is an extension of a business strategy that Trump embraced long before his presidency, striking deals to sell his name to hoteliers and golf course operators in exchange for fees and royalties.
But the opportunities to profit from his brand have expanded since he entered politics a decade ago.
On his most recent financial disclosure, Trump reported making more than $600m last year, including millions from of items such as Trump-branded bibles, watches sneakers and fragrances.
Forbes in March estimated his net worth was $5.1bn, more than double than a year earlier.
It said the surge was due in part to the president's "diehard following", which is credited with helping to prop up the value of Trump's social media company that runs the Truth Social platform, which accounted for roughly half his wealth last year.
The mobile phone market in the US is currently dominated by three major players: AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, which all offer phone service starting at less than $40 a month.
There are also a growing number of smaller firms paying to use those networks to target niche groups of potential customers, by offering lower prices or tailored plans.
The largest of those companies, which are known as mobile virtual network providers, have less than 10 million subscribers, according to a 2024 report by the Federal Communications Commission.
Mint Mobile, which was backed by Ryan Reynolds, was sold to T-Mobile for $1.35bn in 2023. At the time, one analyst estimated the service had roughly two million to three million subscribers.
The actor had a 25% stake in the business, giving him a potential pay out of about $300m.
Doctors treating Colombian presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay have warned that he is in an "extremely critical condition" after being shot in the head 10 days ago.
Uribe underwent emergency surgery on Monday to stem a bleed to the brain, according to a hospital statement.
His wife said that the hours after the operation would be critical and asked Colombians to pray for his recovery.
The June 7 attack on Uribe has shocked Colombians, who turned out in their tens of thousands to attend silent protests held across the country on Sunday.
"Miguel continues to fight for his life like never before," his wife, María Claudia Tarazona, said outside Santa Fe hospital, where he is being treated.
"We need all the prayers and words of love. It's love is keeping him alive."
The 39-year-old conservative senator, who was seeking his party's nomination for the 2026 presidential election, was shot three times at an event in the capital Bogota.
A teenage suspect was arrested as he was fleeing the scene. The 15-year-old has been charged with attempted murder and pleaded not guilty.
A man accused of providing the shooter with the gun has also been detained as well as a woman suspected of providing "logistical support" for the attack.
However, police are still trying to determine the possible motive for the attack and who may have ordered it.
The brazen attack on the politician - in broad daylight as he was giving a speech in a middle-class neighbourhood in Bogota - has brought back memories of the turbulent decades of the 1980s and 90s in Colombia, when several presidential candidates and influential Colombian figures were assassinated.
Uribe's own mother, journalist Diana Turbay, was kidnapped by Los Extraditables in 1990 - an alliance created by leading drug lords.
She was held hostage by them for five months before being shot dead during a botched rescue attempt.
Uribe often cited her as his inspiration to run for political office "to work for our country".
Los Extraditables, who have said they would prefer a grave in Colombia to a prison cell in the US, abducted and attacked renowned Colombians in an attempt to force the government at the time to overturn its extradition treaty with the US.
Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni has signed into law an amendment that will allow, once again, civilians to be tried in a military court under certain circumstances.
A previous law permitting such trials was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in January.
Before that ruling, civilians could be taken to a military tribunal if they had been found with military equipment like guns or army uniforms. Activists had complained that the law was used to persecute government critics.
Parliamentarians passed the amendment last month amid a heavy police presence and a boycott by opposition lawmakers, who argued that it violated the ruling by the country's highest court.
In January, the judges said that the military courts were neither impartial nor competent to exercise judicial functions, the International Society for Human Rights reported at the time.
The amendment appears to try and address some of the issues.
It says that those presiding over the tribunals should have relevant legal qualifications and training. It also says that while performing their legal functions they should be independent and impartial.
But civilians can still be transferred if found with military hardware.
"The law will deal decisively with armed violent criminals, deter the formation of militant political groups that seek to subvert democratic processes, and ensure national security is bound on a firm foundational base. If it ain't broke, don't fix it!," army spokesperson Col Chris Magezi wrote on X after the bill was passed by MPs.
But opposition leader Bobi Wine said the law would be used against him and others.
"All of us in the opposition are being targeted by the act," he told the AFP news agency.
The Uganda Law Society, a professional body that represents the country's lawyers, has said it will "challenge the constitutionality" of the amendment.
For years, activists had argued that the military courts were being used by the government to silence dissidents, with people alleging that evidence had been planted.
"If you are a political opponent then they will find a way of getting you under the military court and then you know your fate is sealed... once there, justice will never visit your door," human rights lawyer Gawaya Tegulle told the BBC's Focus on Africa podcast in February.
He added that people can spend years in detention on remand as the courts await decisions from senior military figures, which may never come, and those who are tried and found guilty face harsher penalties than in civilian courts.
A recent high-profile case followed November's arrest of long-time leading opposition figure Kizza Besigye. He was picked up in neighbouring Kenya, taken across the border and then charged in a military court with possession of pistols and attempting to purchase weapons abroad, which he denied.
Those charges were dropped, and replaced with others, when his case was transferred to a civilian court following the Supreme Court ruling.
Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, described the verdict as the "wrong decision", adding that "the country is not governed by the judges. It is governed by the people."
He had previously defended the use of military courts saying that they dealt with the "rampant activities of criminals and terrorists that were using guns to kill people indiscriminately".
He said that civilian courts were too busy to "handle these gun-wielding criminals quickly".
Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.
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(德国之声中文网)“禁酒令”近日在中国成为热词。“体制内聚餐遇‘紧箍咒’,3人以上就违规?”、“公职人员下班后能和同事聚餐吗”、 “公职人员必看!八小时外同事聚餐,这些红线千万别踩”……类似标题和新闻出现在各大媒体平台上。
所谓的“禁酒令”是基于5月18日中国中共中央、国务院印发的修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》,此前发生了数起中国官员饭局醉酒死亡事件。《条例》强调“强化厉行勤俭节约”,明确公务接待“烟酒全禁” 。此后地方纷纷跟进。一些地方推出了更为详细、更为严格的规定。例如,一些消息指,有地方已经勒令“公职人员三人以上不能聚餐”,避免拉帮结派、搞小圈子。
据中国媒体6月17日报道,新“禁酒令”后7家白酒股跌超10%。微博网友戏称,“贵州茅台最大的敌人就是禁酒令”。
不少人为中国餐饮业以及疫情后本来就有些疲软的消费担忧。也有网友抱怨个人生活受到过度干预,表示以后“吃个饭都要自证清白”。
一条高赞评论这样嘲讽道:一个人吃饭是享乐主义,两个人吃饭是乱搞男女关系,三个人吃饭是拉帮结派。还有网友认为这些规定“矫枉过正”,称其本质是“层层加码”。
据路透社报道,一位四川的公务员说,她的同事被要求下班后必须直接回家;另一位安徽公务员说,她所在的办公室最近开始实施每日酒精测试;甘肃的一位公务员表示,被要求学习一份列出20种应避免的聚餐类型的清单;武汉的一名国企员工则被告知不得与其他部门的同事、领导一起吃午饭,即便是邀请来食堂吃饭也不行;有安徽公务员甚至表示,当地纪检委打来电话,要求其背诵规定,否则就向上级汇报。
不过并非各地公务员的反馈都是如此。北京、广东和重庆的三名公务员告诉路透社,他们的单位并没有过度执行规定。还有一些人对路透社表示,他们对这些规定表示欢迎,因为讨厌被逼参加饭局、陪领导喝酒。
中国资深媒体人、前《环球时报》总编胡锡进也关注了“禁酒令”,他6月16日在微博上发帖称,新规被“一些低级红高级黑故意夸大,制造舆论误读和紧张”,据他了解,“禁酒”只适用于工作和值班时间,所谓“禁止聚餐”同样是无厘头,“公务人员只要是花自己钱与亲朋好友聚餐,根本不成问题”。“……有少数人在网上编‘禁酒’或‘禁餐’的段子,大多是为了流量的舆论投机和恶搞。”
路透社在报道中援引分析人士表示,最新条例与中国领导人习近平长期以来反腐败、重视党纪的作风一脉相承,但也表明之前的管控措施不够有效。新加坡国立大学副教授吴木銮(Alfred Wu)对路透社说,“公务员的酒局文化确实相当严重,但他们还没有找到好的应对办法,所以只能实行‘一刀切’政策”。
在知乎平台“如何看待多地推出升级版禁酒令”的提问下,有网友指出,这件事“其实是中国官僚体系中再普遍不过的‘运动式治理’的又一例证罢了”。
值得一提的是,这并非中国官场第一次推出禁酒令。很多地方和部门早就已经发布相关通知,要求公务活动全面禁酒。根据中国媒体报道,2017年,中国最高检下发修改后的《最高人民检察院禁酒令》。同年,中国交通部发出国内公务接待禁止饮酒的通知。中央军委更早在2012年就出台的十项规定,要求“不安排宴请,不喝酒,不上高档菜肴”;空军于2016年制定下发《从严贯彻执行空军“禁酒令”的措施》,当时被称作“最严‘禁酒令’”。
DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。
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© Abdel Kareem Hana/Associated Press
Israeli forces have killed more than 51 Palestinians and wounded many more after opening fire near an aid distribution site in southern Gaza, witnesses and rescuers say.
The Hamas-run civil defence agency said Israeli troops fired on crowds near the aid site in Khan Younis. More than 200 people were reportedly injured.
The Israeli military has told the BBC it is looking into the reports.
It is the latest, and potentially the deadliest, of the almost daily shootings that have been taking place recently near aid distribution sites in Gaza.
Witnesses say that Israeli forces opened fire and shelled an area near a junction to the east of Khan Younis, where thousands of Palestinians had been gathering in the hope of getting flour from a World Food Programme (WFP) site, which also includes a community kitchen nearby.
A local journalist and eyewitnesses said Israeli drones fired two missiles, followed shortly after by a shell from an Israeli tank positioned between 400 and 500m away from the crowd. The explosions caused many casualties.
The crowd had assembled near a key road leading to the town of Bani Suheila, an area that has seen weeks of ongoing Israeli military operations.
Nasser Hospital, the main functioning medical facility in the area, has been overwhelmed by the number of casualties. It is so overcrowded that the many wounded are lying on the floor as medical staff treat their injuries.
In a statement the IDF said "a gathering was identified adjacent to an aid distribution truck that got stuck in the area of Khan Younis, and in proximity to IDF troops operating in the area."
It said it was "aware of reports regarding a number of injured individuals from IDF fire following the crowd's approach" and the incident was under review.
On Monday, the UN human rights chief Volker Turk said Israel was weaponising food and called for an investigation into the shootings near aid sites.
Addressing the UN Human Rights Council on Monday, he said: "Israel's means and methods of warfare are inflicting horrifying, unconscionable suffering on Palestinians in Gaza."
Yellow heat health alerts have been issued for most of England with temperatures set to soar across the country later this week.
Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East England, the South East, the South West and London are all covered by the alert which comes into force at 12:00 BST on Wednesday and lasts until 18:00 on Sunday.
The alert is the lowest behind amber and red on the UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) alerting system, but warns of possible impacts on health and social services.
Temperatures are set to be as high as 26C in London on Tuesday, with an area of high pressure building across the UK likely to bring the first heatwave of 2025 during the week.
All of the affected areas excluding Yorkshire and the Humber have been given a risk score of 10 out of a possible 16, meaning "significant impacts are possible" due to high temperatures.
The UKHSA's website says this includes a possible rise in deaths, particularly among those aged 65 and over or with health conditions, while younger age groups could also be affected.
An increase in demand for health services is likely, it said, and there is a risk the heat could affect the ability of people working in hospitals and care homes to deliver services.
Internal temperatures in hospitals, care homes and independent accommodation could also pose a risk to vulnerable people, it said.
Yorkshire and the Humber's score of seven means that only minor impacts are likely.
According to the Met Office, Tuesday will see cloudy weather with patches of rain in southern Scotland, the east of Northern Ireland, northwest England and northwest Wales.
Sunny spells and showers are expected in northern parts of the UK, and after a locally grey start further south, there will be some very warm sunshine.
A man has been arrested on suspicion of murdering a woman who was found with stab wounds at a house in east London following a suspected a gas explosion.
The Met Police and London Fire Brigade were called to reports of a blast with a person trapped inside a terraced house on Dumont Road, Stoke Newington, just before 05:00 BST.
The woman, 46, was pronounced dead at the scene.
The 44-year-old man arrested on suspicion of murder was taken to hospital with slash wounds. His condition is not life-threatening, the Met Police said.
Two children aged seven and nine were also taken to hospital as a precaution, although they are not believed to have been inside the property at the time of the explosion.
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Patients who film their own medical treatment for TikTok or Instagram could be putting themselves and NHS staff at risk, the Society of Radiographers (SoR) has warned.
The trade union's annual conference heard that more patients were videoing their procedures on mobile phones, often without asking permission.
This could distract staff or make them feel uncomfortable and anxious, the society said.
Sharing material on social media also risks publicising the private medical data of other people who may be in the same room or area of the hospital.
"I had one patient whose relative started filming while I was trying to set up," said Ashley d'Aquino, a therapeutic radiographer from London.
"It wasn't the right time - I was trying to focus on delivering the treatment."
Ms d'Aquino, who is also a local union representative, said she had recently been contacted by other colleagues in a similar situation.
"We had a member of staff who agreed to take photos for a patient," she said.
"When the patient handed over her phone, the member of staff saw that the patient had also been covertly recording her, to publish on her cancer blog."
Most NHS staff wear identity badges and their names and job titles may be visible on videos posted online.
The union said another of its members, a department assistant from the south coast of England, was inserting a cannula as part of a cancer procedure, when the patient's 19-year old daughter started filming on her phone.
"She thought it would be entertaining on social media but she didn't ask permission," said the member of staff.
"I spent the weekend afterwards worrying: did I do my job properly? I know I did, but no-one's perfect all of the time," she added.
"I don't think I slept for the whole weekend."
Ms d'Aquino said there were valid reasons for patients to record the audio of medical consultations - so they could listen back to the detail, for example.
"The difficulty is that our phones have become so much a part of our day-to-day life that recording and sharing has become second nature," she added.
Dean Rogers, the director of strategy at the SoR, is calling for NHS trusts to have clear policies in place that stop patients from filming without permission.
"As healthcare professionals, we need to think: does that recording breach the confidentiality of other patients? Does it breach our ability to deliver care?" he said.
"There are hospital trusts that have very good policies around patients taking photos and filming procedures but this is something all trusts need to have in place."
Prof Meghana Pandit, co-national medical director at NHS England, said it was vital that, if patients want to record any part of NHS care, they discuss it with staff first and it remains for their personal use only.
"Recording other patients inadvertently and without their permission risks breaching patient confidentiality – the information and treatment provided to other patients on NHS premises should never be recorded, let alone posted to social media," she added.
Plans to pedestrianise parts of Oxford Street will move forward "as quickly as possible", the mayor of London has said.
City Hall claims two thirds of people support the principle of banning traffic on one of the world's busiest streets, with Sir Sadiq Khan adding that "urgent action is needed to give our nation's high street a new lease of life".
Vehicles would be banned from a 0.7-mile (1.1km) stretch between Oxford Circus and Marble Arch, with further potential changes towards Tottenham Court Road.
Adam Hug, Westminster City Council's Labour leader, said the plan "was not the council's preferred outcome" but "it is now important for Oxford Street's future to move forward together".
Detailed proposals for traffic on Oxford Street, which sees an average of half a million visitors each day, will be consulted on later this year.
Tim Lord, chair of the Soho Society, said key questions remained unanswered, including about "traffic diversion and the impact of moving 16 bus routes into narrow, congested one-way streets in Marylebone and Fitzrovia".
He said: "No convincing plan has ever been presented; London is already a very slow city and will get worse.
"The elephant in the room is that Oxford Street's problems are to do with the quality and attractiveness of the retail offering, which is diminished by rents which are too high and which only ever increase."
He added that there were questions about bicycles and "equality of access for bus and taxi users" and "people with kids and heavy shopping or with mobility restrictions".
A previous consultation showed support for the scheme from local business owners (19%) and residents (34%) lagged behind visitors (62%).
In 2018, Westminster City Council - then led by the Conservatives - blocked the mayor's plans to pedestrianise the street, citing a lack of support from residents.
In 2022, the same council was widely mocked for a doomed attempt to entice visitors back to the area with the Marble Arch Mound, which opened incomplete, over budget and led to resignations.
The mayor's latest proposals depend on him obtaining permission from Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner in her role as secretary of state for housing, communities and local government to establish a new mayoral development corporation, which would provide planning powers.
Sir Sadiq said: "We want to rejuvenate Oxford Street; establish it as a global leader for shopping, leisure and outdoor events with a world-class, accessible, pedestrianised avenue.
"This will help to attract more international visitors and act as a magnet for new investment and job creation, driving growth and economic prosperity for decades to come."
Mr Hug said: "Since the mayor's new approach was made public last autumn, Westminster has worked pragmatically and productively with the Greater London Authority to ensure that the plan for Oxford Street more closely meets the needs of businesses, visitors and residents.
"Since 2022, Oxford Street has roared back to life after the pandemic. Such is the level of retail confidence that existing brands have spent £118m refitting their stores in the last 12 months alone, according to Savills."
City Hall Conservative Alessandro Georgiou AM said: "We are concerned that the mayor is driving coach and horses through the plan drawn up by Westminster Conservatives, which had the popular support of residents and businesses, in order to secure himself even a shred of a positive legacy after last week's disastrous Spending Review.
"The mayor's polling claims to show how strongly Londoners feel about this issue, but he has yet to make a cogent case for why he needs to take power away from local councils in order to achieve this rather than working with them.
"We will continue to hold the mayor to account on his empty proposals, and encourage him to be clearer with the public about the impacts on congestion, public safety and disabled access, as well as how much his plans will cost."
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The US Supreme Court has rejected an attempt to revive the long-running copyright trial over his hit song Thinking Out Loud.
On Monday, the court refused to hear an appeal from Structured Asset Sales (SAS), which claimed Sheeran's song copied Marvin Gaye's Let's Get It On, in which it has a copyright interest.
The move ends a decade-long legal battle, including two separate plagiarism trials, both of which ruled in Sheeran's favour.
"It's a huge relief," said Amy Wadge, who co-wrote Thinking Out Loud with Sheeran in 2014. "It's been rolling news under my life for 10 years but, yes, it's done."
Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, the Welsh songwriter said the copyright trials had "haunted" her for the last 10 years.
"The absolute truth is that song changed my life. I didn't have a hit until I was 37 and that was the one.
"I was able to feel like I'd had a hit for a year and then all of a sudden it felt like the wolves were surrounding.
"It was incredibly frightening."
Thinking Out Loud is one of the biggest songs of Sheeran's career. It spent more than two years in the UK singles chart, racking up 4.8 million sales in the UK, and won song of the year at the 2016 Grammy Awards.
Gaye's boudoir ballad, which was a number one hit in the US, was co-written with singer-songwriter Ed Townsend, who died in 2003.
Townsend's family first accused Sheeran and Wadge of copyright infringement in 2016, seeking $100m (£73m) in damages.
In court, Sheeran's team accepted that the two songs share a similar syncopated chord pattern.
However, they characterised the chords as the "building blocks" of pop music, which had been used in dozens of songs before and since Let's Get It On was recorded in 1973.
A New York jury ruled in Sheeran's favour in 2023, after which the star spoke about his decision to fight the case in court, rather than settle.
"I am not and will never allow myself to be a piggy bank for anyone to shake," he told reporters.
SAS, which was founded and run by investment banker David Pullman, also has a stake in Townsend's copyright, and sued Sheeran and Wadge separately in 2018.
After losing that case, SAS launched a series of appeals, including demands for a re-hearing, which was denied.
SAS was then left with the option of appealing to the Supreme Court, which it did in March.
But the court agreed with earlier findings that the chord progression and harmonic rhythms in Gaye's song are too commonplace to be legally protected.
"And no reasonable jury could find that the two songs, taken as a whole, are substantially similar in light of their dissimilar melodies and lyrics," Judge Michael Park wrote for the New York-based 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals.
Wadge said the ruling had ended "10 long years" of uncertainty.
"It was certainly a financial threat, but there was also... this huge existential threat of what it meant for the world of songwriting I always felt the weight of that.
"People would tell me that everyone was looking at this case and I knew that had [SAS] been successful it really would have caused a huge issue for creativity in general," she added. "It was a big responsibility."
After the 2023 trial, Wadge and Sheeran both got tattoos containing a phrase from the judge's verdict: "Independently created".
Asked if she would do the same again, Wadge laughed, saying: "My husband might have a bit of a problem with another tattoo."
The songwriter added that she hasn't been able to speak to Sheeran since the verdict, as he's currently on tour in Europe, but she added: "I'm quite sure at some point we'll be able to sit down and say, 'Thank goodness'."
When North Korea's new warship capsized into the sea during its launch last month, it made international headlines. News organisations followed every development, from its successful refloating to its relaunch last Friday.
But why such interest, given there were no casualties, and the damage to the hull appeared relatively minor?
The intrigue has less to do with the failure itself and more with how Kim Jong Un reacted.
Kim immediately denounced the failure as "a criminal act" that "could not be tolerated", saying it had damaged the country's "dignity". He ordered that the ship be restored immediately, and those responsible be punished. Four party officials were subsequently arrested.
This furious outburst, followed by the ship's swift repair, teaches us a lot about the North Korean regime, whose moves are often so difficult to decipher.
First, it reveals how serious North Korea is about building a nuclear-armed navy.
Despite having a nuclear arsenal, which is growing in size and sophistication, and an enormous standing army, North Korea's navy is considered greatly inferior to those of its enemies - South Korea, Japan and the United States - who have some of the most powerful naval fleets in the world.
"Kim Jong Un believes nuclear weapons are the only way he can protect his country, and yet all it has at sea is an old submarine and some small support ships," said Choi Il, a retired South Korean navy captain.
Therefore, almost since the start of his reign, Kim has prioritised building a modern and powerful navy, equipped with nuclear weapons.
This warship is a key first step towards this goal. It is one of two destroyers North Korea has built over the past year, the first of which launched successfully in April. Weighing 5,000 tonnes, they are by far the biggest warships North Korea has, and are capable, in theory, of firing nuclear short-range missiles.
According to Mr Choi, who now heads South Korea's Submarine Research Institute, it is extremely rare for a destroyer of this class to capsize during its construction and launch, given the advanced technology required to build one.
This would therefore have been "a very embarrassing incident" for Kim Jong Un, he said, as it "highlights the limitations of North Korea's shipbuilding".
Worse still, this flagship project failed in front of his eyes. Kim was attending the ship's launch ceremony, along with his daughter and a crowd of spectators.
"North Korea is obsessed with showing off. I imagine they were planning a whole series of performances, so of course Kim couldn't help but be furious", Mr Choi added.
But experts in North Korea propaganda believe there is far more to Kim Jong Un's outburst than raw anger and humiliation.
Choosing to publicise the capsizing in the way he did was a deliberate political strategy, they say, and shows Kim is shifting away from the regime's tendency to conceal unpleasant truths.
Rachel Minyoung Lee from the Washington-based Stimson Centre, who has analysed North Korean propaganda for decades, explained how this has become a core pillar of Kim's propaganda strategy.
Before Kim came to power, and even in the early years of his rule, the regime would hide anything negative as a way to control the narrative.
But as information has started to spread more freely in North Korea, it has become harder to cover up such major incidents.
"The leadership decided it was almost silly to try and hide what people already knew, and much more effective to show people they were dealing with problems," Ms Lee said.
"Now, when there's a problem, you publicise it, you call out those responsible, and demonstrate to people that if you don't do your job, you will be held accountable. And in doing so, you let everyone know that the government and the leadership are doing their jobs well".
In the case of the warship, this strategy appears to have worked remarkably effectively. The repairs were completed ahead of schedule, in just over three weeks, defying the expectations of naval experts.
"The rapid relaunch shows how even a failure can be turned into a political success," said Kim Dong-yup, an assistant professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
But he and others say Kim has used this incident not just to project success but to strengthen people's loyalty to the regime and its ideology – another consistent feature of his rule.
The ship capsized as it was launched sideways from the dock into the sea – a complicated maritime manoeuvre – and part of the bow got stuck on the launching ramp. But rather than present this as a technical failure, Kim Jong Un claimed the incident was caused by "absolute carelessness and irresponsibility."
In contrast, he praised a worker who died during the ship's construction, for "putting his blood and sweat" into the project.
"They turned his death into a symbol of devotion, to strengthen people's loyalty," said Professor Kim Dong-yup.
Rather than present Kim Jong Un as an infallible god as was the case for his father and grandfather, they elevated the loyal worker, he said. "This is a big shift in North Korea's governing technique and shows Kim Jong Un's astonishing ability to adapt and control the narrative".
The biggest takeaway for Ms Lee, the propaganda expert, is that "the North Koreans achieve whatever they set out to do."
"They set this goal of having a nuclear armed navy, and now they're demonstrating they're on their way to achieving that".
No-one thought they could build the destroyers in just over a year, or repair this damage in less than a month, but they have, Ms Lee added, much like they did with their nuclear and missile programme despite the world's initial scepticism.
The retired navy captain Mr Choi agreed. "People may look at this episode and laugh, and think 'oh, North Korea is so far behind', but they're making significant progress", he said.
Most concerning, say he and others, is that Kim Jong Un is intent on transforming his navy from one that is limited to patrolling its own seas into one that will be able to sail the world's oceans and launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes.
"We must be vigilant and prepare accordingly," he said.
Additional reporting by Hosu Lee and Leehyun Choi.
我国受人口老龄化进程加速、人民生活方式转变以及宣传组织动员等多种因素叠加影响,血液供需矛盾仍较明显,临床用血需求不断提升,季节性、地区性、偏型性血液紧张仍然存在。
养老机器人提供的服务要纳入基本医疗保险制度、长期护理保险制度还存在很多技术障碍,比如机器人提供的服务如何定价?服务标准、服务质量如何认定?服务过失发生后的责任如何界定?索赔、纠纷如何处置?
南方周末记者 宋炳晨
责任编辑:曹海东
2025年6月14日,山东滨州,献血志愿者在流动献血车上无偿献血。
国家卫生健康委:血液供需矛盾仍较明显,需保障重点地区
2025年6月12日,在国家卫生健康委举行的新闻发布会上,国家卫生健康委医疗应急司副司长、一级巡视员高光明介绍,近两年来,受多方面因素影响,全球无偿献血出现下降趋势。我国受人口老龄化进程加速、人民生活方式转变以及宣传组织动员等多种因素叠加影响,血液供需矛盾仍较明显,临床用血需求不断提升,季节性、地区性、偏型性血液紧张仍然存在。2024年全国无偿献血量同比有所下降。针对上述情况,国家卫生健康委采取多种举措保障血液安全供应。其中,健全全国血液联动应急保障能力,精准开展跨区域血液调配,保障重点地区、重要时间节点的血液供应。
健言:国家层面推进跨区域调配、提升血液应急联动能力,有效缓解了部分地区季节性短缺问题。但根本解决还需加强社区动员、提升年轻人献血率,并使用信息化手段优化献血调度。一位中部地区卫健人士告诉南方周末记者,目前献血的主力人群是学生和医务工作者,一方面他们在多个学生活动的场景科普献血知识,通过发放体检卡等激励措施鼓励更多大学生献血,同时延长献血点的工作时间;另一方面则是自愿献血合格
校对:吴依兰
央视新闻
据临澧烟花厂爆炸事故现场救援指挥部消息,目前,湖南省政府已对该事故提级调查,成立事故调查组,将尽快查明事故原因,依法严肃追究责任。
事故现场救援指挥部透露,爆炸现场情况复杂,经救援人员进一步排查,截至6月17日9时,该事故已造成9人遇难,26人受伤。目前,现场救援指挥部正组织精干力量全力搜救。伤员救治、遇难者善后、伤亡人员家属安抚等工作紧张展开。
据现场消防救援队员介绍,现场存在次生灾害和二次爆炸、闪爆风险,给搜救和救援带来较大难度和风险。在20多个小时的不间断、持续救援中,救援队员通过远程控制遥控水炮进行现场灭火,避免救援人员近距离接触,有效防范次生灾害。事故现场地处山区,没有大水源。救援过程中,调派了28台水罐车,2台排涝车架设大功率排涝泵,采取远程供水方式在厂区建立2个水炮阵地,控制了燃爆区域,防止火势蔓延。
从事记者职业以来,我从来没有听到过一个受访者对稿件的要求,居然是把前一个报道的记者,写进新的报道里,以示对前者的认可。感受到黄珍这种细微的善意,就不难理解她将房间与陌生人共享的行为。
南方周末记者 郑丹
责任编辑:谭畅
黄珍家中,住客写满的留言墙。受访者供图
跟黄珍的电话打到第二个小时,已经是凌晨1点多,我困得上下眼皮都在打架。她突然提出对稿件唯一的要求,让我回了神。“我希望把李珂写进去,因为她的看见,才有了你们的看见。”
李珂是上海的一名记者,也是第一个对黄珍进行报道的记者。五一假期,李珂用几天时间,拍摄了一则纪录短片,讲述黄珍将自己的房间对外开放,允许陌生女孩们在她床边的地毯上免费住宿的故事。
那则纪录片发布后,其他媒体陆陆续续关注到了黄珍,我也对这种借换宿的现象进行报道。(详见南方周末报道《“下班回家像开盲盒”:都市独居青年,收留陌生人住宿》)
坦白说,黄珍这个要求,比她的故事更让我惊讶。从事记者职业以来,我从来没有听到过一个受访者对稿件的要求,居然是把前一个报道的记者,写进新的报道里,以示对前者的认可。
记者常常隐身于报道之后,这是这份职业的主观选择,也是一个客观事实。很多受访的新闻当事人都未
校对:吴依兰
南方+
6月17日,陈彼得亲友通过社交账号发布中国著名音乐人陈彼得逝世的消息。讣告中提到,陈彼得先生,因病医治无效,于2025年6月14日上午9时46分在成都安详辞世,享年82岁。
保险业罚单和罚金同比降幅均过半,合规度持续好转。
“虚列费用”依旧为行业顽疾。
农业险“虚假投保、虚假理赔”再现大罚单。
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员 张文景
责任编辑:丰雨
2025年5月,保险业整体合规度持续提升,但农业险“虚假承保、虚假理赔”(下称“两虚”问题)仍然严重。中国太平洋财险公司因涉及此案由而领取当月最高额罚单。
保险业合规度再度明显好转。
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员根据南方周末“牧羊犬—中国金融业合规云平台”(下称“牧羊犬平台”)数据分析研究发现,当月,保险业罚单和罚金同比及环比均明显下降。
中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局和国家外汇管理局(下称“一行两局”)及其各地派出机构当月共发布保险业处罚信息147条、罚没金额约1467万元,二者同比降幅均过半,达52%和65%;环比亦下降,降幅均超过20%。
将罚单分为保险机构和保险业从业个人两个维度进行观察亦发现,当月,保险业机构处罚信息和罚没金额分别为65条和约1208万元,依旧占据大头。
而同期保险业从业个人合规度同样改善,环比和同比均呈下滑态势。
哪家机构收到的罚单最多?牧羊犬平台数据显示,当月36家保险公司被罚。其中,中国太平洋保险(集团)股份有限公司(下称“中国太保”)及其旗下分支机构收到的罚单和罚金最多,成为本月罚单和罚金“双料冠军”;中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司(下称“中国平安”)并列为当月“罚单之王”。
细分来看,中国太保旗下3家寿险分支机构和2家财险分支机构被罚。从案由维度观察,3家寿险分支公司主要因“虚假宣传”和“给予合同约定以外利益”被罚;2家财险分支机构则主要因“虚列费用”和“未按照规定使用经批准或者备案的保险条款”被罚。
事实上,上述案由罚单属于高频罚单,也是行业顽疾。南方周末新金融研究中心研究员依据牧羊犬平台数据库,通过“关键词”搜索方式统计发现,2025年5月,“编制虚假资料”“虚列费用”“给予保险合同约定以外利益”位居前三。
一位熟悉保险业合规的法律人士对南方周末新金融研究中心研究员称,监管机构重点关注备案条款执行是否到位,包括审查是否通过“技术服务费”等名目变相降费,是否以赠送体检卡等实物替代费率优惠等。此外,通过赠送礼品和返现等合同外利益变相降低费率隐形违规,同样被认定为未执行备案条款。
他还表示,通过虚列费用、虚构中介业务等方式套取资金的行为,同样是监管机构打击重点。 随着监管技术升级,通过大数据比对很容易发现“劳务费”“咨询费”等科目异常,虚列费用、套取资金等违规行为无处遁形。与此同时,“双罚制”下,监管机构追责到人,分支机构负责人、部门经理甚至具体经办人员均可能被罚,合规责任层层压实。而财务造假不仅导致罚款,还可能引发刑事责任。
保险各细分领域的合规度有何差异?
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员发现,5月,在保险业整体合规度改善趋势下,财险业、寿险业和保险中介“三大主力”的合规度走势同样趋优。
从罚没金额维度观察,财险业被罚没金额仍高于寿险业和保险中介。牧羊犬平台数据显示,财险业、寿险业和保险中介分别被罚没金额约645万元、近460万元和约121万元。而从机构前十罚单角度观察,前十大罚单中,财险业共有6单。但5月未有百万级大罚单。牧羊犬平台数据显示,中国太保长春中心支公司因农业险涉及“虚列费用”和“未按照规定使用经批准或者备案的保险条款”违规被罚93万元,为本月最高额罚单。
此前的一季度,中国人保也曾因车险和农业险违规行为被追罚超千万元(详见:《保险业罚金超亿元,10人被“红牌罚下”》)
事实上,自2007年我国实施中央财政补贴型农险试点以来,我国农业险发展保持快速增长。截至2024年末,我国农业险保费规模已超过1500亿元。但农业保险高度依赖政策性补贴,这令农业保险存在远比商业保险更复杂的经济和法律关系,“两虚问题”较为突出。
“两虚问题”主要指,在高比例保费补贴刺激下,部分保险公司、农户、协保人员,单独或合谋通过虚增保险标的数量,骗取财政补贴,并通过构造虚假赔案,将骗取的财政资金转移至相关利益方。
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员访谈多名业内人士发现,“两虚”问题的关键在于农业基础数据的不完善,“两虚”认定缺乏各方认可的数据支撑,在实践中难以准确、快速、低成本识别“两虚”问题。
南方周末新金融研究中心研究员还发现,“3S”技术在政策性农险监管中发挥了越来越大的作用。“3S”技术是包括遥感技术(RS)、地理信息系统(GIS)、全球定位系统(GPS)在内的现代化农业信息采集、处理和应用技术。在“3S”技术赋能下,在目标监管区域的所有政策农险保单都能够通过地理信息系统(GIS)对每张农险保单实施矢量化、精准化监管,并结合遥感技术(RS)实现“虚假投保”和“虚假理赔”的识别。
校对:星歌
南方+
6月17日,广东省教育考试院在华南师范大学(石牌校区)举行2025年高考评卷媒体开放日活动。记者获悉,广东将于6月25日左右公布高考成绩和各批次录取分数线。
央视新闻
美国国防部(资料图)
当地时间6月16日,美国国防部发言人肖恩·帕内尔在其社交媒体平台X上表示,美军保持着防御态势,这一点没有改变,国防部将保护美军和美国的利益。
肖恩·帕内尔同时否认美军在伊朗境内发起攻击。此前有消息称,美国战斗机参与对伊朗的空袭。
当地时间6月14日,美国北方司令部表示,鉴于全球局势发展,美军已在全美所有军事设施加强安保。
13日凌晨开始,以色列对伊朗发动大规模空袭,伊朗当晚对以色列军事中心、空军基地等目标进行反击,地区紧张局势陡然升级。
美国法院能否真正制约总统的权力?
政治博弈会影响最终的裁决结果吗?
(本文首发于南方人物周刊)
南方人物周刊记者 刘璐明
责任编辑:陈雅峰
2025年5月10日在美国洛杉矶港拍摄的货船。随着美国关税措施对国际贸易的冲击逐步显现,美国最大港口洛杉矶港负责人6月7日表示,该港口工作岗位近期已减少近半。此外,港口5月份的货物吞吐量比预期减少了25%(新华社 邱晨/图)
2025年5月28日,美国国际贸易法院作出一项重大裁决,认定特朗普于4月初依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施的全球加征关税政策越权,要求美国政府在6月9日前撤销所有涉案关税并退还已征收款项。
几分钟后,白宫就宣布将对裁决结果提出上诉。不到24小时——5月29日,美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准了特朗普政府提出的暂缓执行请求,关税政策暂时恢复。最终,该官司可能会上诉到美国最高法院,待其作出终审判决。
此次裁决触及了美国总统权力的边界问题。虽然“IEEPA”授权总统可以在“不寻常威胁”下采取经济措施,但将贸易逆差定性为“国家紧急状态”显然突破了传统解释。根据美国宪法,与贸易相关的权力,通常需要国会的授权或立法支持,而特朗普绕开了国会。
这场诉讼可能成为重新定义行政权力的里程碑事件,背后也是美国行政权与司法权的博弈、两党的撕裂在司法上的呈现。
2025年5月21日,在美国加利福尼亚州旧金山湾区圣莱安德罗的一家沃尔玛超市,价格跟踪软件显示一款中国产的毛猴玩具售价变化情况(新华社/图)
美国国际贸易法院的前身是成立于1926年的美国海关法院。根据1980年的海关法案,美国国际贸易法院有权管辖任何在国际贸易领域针对美国政府、官员、其他政府机构的民事诉讼。该法院共有9名法官,其中1名为首席法官,均由总统经参议院建议和同意后任命。
耐人寻味的是,该法院的首席法官马克·巴内特由前总统奥巴马任命,2021年被拜登提名为首席大法官。审理该案件的三位法官当中,只有蒂莫西·莱夫由特朗普提名,简·雷斯坦尼、加里·卡兹曼由民主党籍的总统里根和奥巴马提名。
这已经不是美国国际贸易法院第一次与特朗普“对着干”。特朗普2018年开始对华加征“301关税”(政策源自《1974年贸易法》第301条款),2020年就有3600多家美国企业发起联合诉讼,要求当时的特朗普政府对部分中国输美产品暂停关税清算,最终获得胜诉。
美国法院能否真正制约总统的权力?政治博弈会影响最终的裁决结果吗?这场司法拉锯战又将如何影响未来的关税政策走向?《南方人物周刊》采访了北京金诚同达律师事务所管理合伙人、决策委主任杨晨。他是中国最早从事国际贸易和世界贸易组织(WTO)争端解决业务的律师之一,代理了中国加入WTO二十余年来诸多具有重要意义的案件,是复杂的国际经贸环境变化的见证者。
杨晨,北京金诚同达律师事务所管理合伙人、决策委主任(受访者提供/图)
校对:赵立宇
一个希望之国的夭折与死局。
好多读者让我聊聊伊朗的事情,的确,在新一轮的以伊冲突当中,伊朗被以色列打的几乎毫无还手之力。
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截至目前,伊朗被以色列“定点清除”的高官至少已经有五名:伊朗武装部队总参谋长穆罕默德·巴盖里、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令侯赛因·萨拉米、伊朗武装部队副司令阿里·拉希德、伊朗革命卫队航空部队司令阿米尔-阿里·哈吉扎德和前伊朗国家安全负责人阿里·沙姆哈尼。
以色列现在做的事情,实际上是在打击伊朗已经摇摇欲坠的权力继承体系,考虑到最高宗教领袖哈梅内伊年事已高,即便不考虑以色列的定点清除计划“送一程”这种可能性,哈梅内伊身后会留下的权力格局也堪称风云诡谲,而以色列现在正在像“抽积木”一样,大量的抽掉这个体系中一些重要的“基石”——
我们可以想见,这些基石被抽掉之后,将进一步让伊朗的权力体系失衡——什叶派教士集团、文官政府、伊斯兰革命卫队这三支力量之前原本就脆弱的平衡被再次打破。
以色列在以“让领导先走”的方式,拆除伊朗政权体系的“积木”,这恰恰是伊朗最怕的一手棋。
这件事其实解释了为什么面对以色列此轮打击的“手狠”,伊朗似乎只剩下了“嘴硬”——这里要修正一个普遍的误解,很多人认为伊朗在战场上打不过以色列,仅仅是因为其在军事上“菜”,缺乏有效威胁以色列的武器。但事实上不是的,文官政府、教士集团、革命卫队三方直接的裂痕已现,年逾八旬的哈梅内伊只能勉强弥合这个统治集团的表面和谐,才是问题的关键。
作为被霍梅尼授权“保卫伊朗革命果实”的武装力量,伊朗革命卫队目前其实已经高度腐化,不仅把军队经商玩出了花,还深度把控了伊朗的军工、能源等实体行业,并无限度滥用了对内监视和镇压其民众的主要任务,但在地位上,他们却不得不屈居于教士阶层之下。从霍梅尼到哈梅内伊,伊朗最高宗教领袖对这支力量的把控力其实已经递减了,在哈梅内伊之后,革命卫队势必试图获取这个国家更大的话语权,而这就与教士阶层产生了深刻的矛盾。
“伊斯兰革命”之后,伊朗的教士阶层逐步获取了伊朗的最高权力,这一派势力是伊朗最狂热最保守的一支力量,主张对内的高压和对外封闭,但在其内部,由于最高宗教领袖必须由“圣裔”接管,伊朗教士阶层内部其实也氛围较为开明的白帽派(庶民教士)和原教旨主义的黑帽派(圣裔教士)两支。未来一定会受到军队和文官政府的双重压力。
文官政府是伊朗现行体系三大支柱中最为开明、主张与西方和以色列缓和关系,并执行至少有限度开放的一支力量。可是缓和关系、文化放开遭了教士阶层的忌。经济开放搞活,又要动深度经商的军方的蛋糕,所以伊朗文官政府也是与其他两派谁都不对付。
总结起来说,伊朗内部现在的三根支柱,其实正上演着异常勾心斗角的“三方大乱斗”,每一方对其他两方的恨意与提防,都很难说在对以色列人之下。去年5月,伊朗总统易卜拉欣·莱希和外长侯赛因·阿米尔-阿卜杜拉希扬在乘坐直升飞机访问阿塞拜疆时离奇坠机死亡,已经让三方对后哈梅内伊时代的角力趋于激化,眼下以色列又开始对其高官进行逐个“点名”,当然就更是火上浇油。
外面硬不起来的根本原因,是其内有忧弊。
以色列摩萨德局长戴维·巴尔内亚在16日团灭了伊朗一众高官后说了一句狂到没变的话,他说"我们知道伊朗一切我们感兴趣的信息。"这句话配合上他的前任“我们在伊朗的特工多到我们自己都数不过来”,再配合上现在以军对伊朗想打哪儿打哪儿,若非美国摁着可能已经点名到哈梅内伊的现状,其实说明了伊朗已经被渗透成了怎样的千疮百孔。
但是面对这种渗透,伊朗却不敢利用其“制度优势”再在内部发动一场如伊斯兰革命后那般的整肃或清洗,原因是如前文所述的,目前三方力量矛盾重重、剑拔弩张,各方都害怕对方以清洗之名削弱自己,甚至三方也都有可能是以色列口中的“内鬼”——因为大家都在知道借以色列人之手互相消灭,是个方便法门。
另外从高层往下看,有人把现如今的伊朗形象的比作晚清——伊朗的军队虽然众多,但主要都是用来监视和镇压国内潜在不满势力的内卫任务的,真正可以调用去和以色列对线,实现”虽远必诛“”把以色列从地图上抹去“宏愿嘴炮的力量几乎没有。且伊朗主要的反对派集中在城市,所以事实上,没有任何其他人比现在的伊朗军方更害怕爆发更高烈度的战争,因为在哈梅内伊年事已高、伊朗经济又一片凋敝、俄罗斯自顾不暇的背景下,成批量的损失和消耗自身实力,是最不理智和划算的举动。
这就是为什么现在伊朗明面上嘴炮逆天,但对以的”骑脸输出“有效回击寥寥的原因。
再重复一遍,伊朗现在最大的问题,还不是菜,而是乱。
事实上,眼下美以两国对伊朗态度的分歧,也只是在解决伊朗问题时间表上的差异——
美国觉得就伊朗现在这个样子,下一轮最高领袖政权交接的时候一定会出问题,哈梅内伊都八十多了,伊朗又不是它的主要着力方向,等着就行了。
而以色列出于它自身的安全利益,结合(其所夸耀的)把伊朗渗透成筛子的情报信息,极力主张立刻把伊朗送走——就像其总理内塔尼亚胡最新喊出的口号——以色列要帮伊朗“政权更迭”。
换而言之,美以现在争论的只是究竟让伊朗“自己体面”,还是“给他个体面”的问题。
一个人口九千万,历史悠久、领土面积、石油储量在全中东都数一数二的国家,混到现在这个内忧外患、民生凋敝的程度,真的也奇葩。
不过伊朗并不从来是这样一个国家,甚至二战之后,它一度是全中东最有希望率先崛起的希望之国。
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是的,无论从哪种意义上说,今日伊朗的存在,似乎都是对“进步史观”的一个非常有力的反诘。
你就说妇女权益这事儿吧。今日伊朗的女性地位非常低,不仅在公众场合不能漏出头发、手臂、腿部等大多数部位,甚至连足球比赛的观赛权都是靠一个女孩的以死明志、以及国际社会的联合施压才争取来的。
可是你知道吗,这些权益,伊朗女性本来一度已经有了,如果倒回40多年前,伊朗的女性权益解放,其实已经走在了整个中东的前列,直到今天,都鲜有中东国家超越。
早在1963年,当时统治伊朗的巴列维王朝就颁布了一系列改革法案,改善妇女处境等。女性被允许投票;最低女性法定结婚年龄从13岁提高到了18岁;离婚权益、抚养权以及其他与婚姻和抚养相关的问题都得到改善和《家庭保护法》保障;妇女受教育的权利也被要求保障。截止到1970年代末以前,已经有多位女性在伊朗议会中担任议员,数百名女性在地方议会中有席位。
女性在社会中能做到独当一面,在工作中也发挥着重要作用。今天我们能看到很多在伊斯兰革命发生前的伊朗城市女性的照片,你会发现那个时候的她们不仅不保守,而且在精神风貌上跟发达国家已经非常相似了。
而女性权益的改善,也仅仅是当时执政的巴列维国王全面改造这个古老国度计划中的一个侧影。
这位国王将自己雄心勃勃的计划称为“白色革命”,以便跟原教旨主义的“黑色革命”和社会党人提倡的“红色革命”相对应。他号召伊朗人通过发展经济、普及教育、文明开化,将伊朗发展成为一个独具中东特色的发达国家。
实话实说,巴列维国王为了推行这个计划确实是下血本的。伊朗王室自己就是国内最大的地主,但为了推行土地改革,国王不惜拿自己开刀。成立“巴列维王室土地分配和出售委员会”,将王室土地无偿或低价的分给了无地农民。
1952年伊朗又建立了“乡村合作和开发银行”,向农民提供购买土地的低息和无息贷款。1955年伊朗颁布法律,规定土地最高拥有量为可灌溉土地10公顷,或旱地15公顷,或游牧区荒地100公顷。地主不得在本村外拥有土地。凡是超出这一限度的土地全由国家强制收购,然后立即以原价加上最多不超过10%的手续费贷款卖给农民。农民第一年可以缓交贷款,以后15年里从收成中偿还其余款项,然后从农业银行手中领得地契。此外,全国所有的水源和坎儿井全部国有化,以消除地主垄断水源、赚取农民高价水费的现象。
这项政策确实是非常惠民的,到了60年代初,伊朗政府正式宣布完成了土改,全国92%的农户已经有了自己的土地。此后伊朗开始到处兴修水利,增加灌溉面积,推广使用农业机械和化肥,引进和培育良种作物,修建乡村道路,打破农村的闭塞状态。此外,因为深知伊朗农村话语权长期被宗教势力所垄断,巴列维国王还别出心裁的向农村派出“知识大军”、“开发大军”和“卫生大军”,以消灭农村文盲,教农民科学种田,消灭农村疾病,同时移风易俗。
在这些农业改革初见成效之后,伊朗现代工业化的大门随之打开了。随着教育的普及,交通的方便和农业农业效率的提升,大量的农村青年人口开始进城打工。从1956年到1976年,德黑兰的人口由170万增加到480万,伊斯法罕由25万增至100万,大不里士由30万增至90万,从而进一步刺激了伊朗的工业发展。
而“白色革命”在工业方面的举措也非常有想法:巴列维王朝规定国有和私有企业必须允许工人参加分红,并向人民出售国有工业股份:国有企业出售99%的股份,私有企业则必须出售三分之一到49%的股份。工人购买股份的款项在每月发工资或年终分红时扣除,还可以以优惠条件付款。此外,伊朗政府还成立了工人福利银行和工人信贷合作社,向工人发放住房贷款,帮助工人偿还债务,教工人识字读书,开办夜校提高工人的技术专长。
于是伊朗开始出现了真正的“市民阶层”,国王在这批人的支持下,开始推动国家的世俗化进程。从1963年起,政府着手从神职人员手中夺回教育和司法权。他创建了从小学到大学的现代学校体系,实行免费教育,用世俗的科学知识取代神学教育。还参考法国的现代司法体系,以民法取代伊斯兰法,不再允许宗教人员依照教法对民众进行审判。
这一套组合拳打下来,外加伊朗还有石油和西方支持这两个大buff。白色革命在1970年中期看起来似乎非常成功——伊朗的年经济增长率十数年稳定维持在恐怖的15%以上。是当时中东经济发展和世俗化最成功的国家。而到1973年,伊朗全国平均寿命从60年代初的41岁提高到51岁,国民收入更是相较“白色革命”开始前翻了好几番。民众在这场改革中是收益的。
1975年1月,伊朗《世界报》发表社论,骄傲的宣称:“如果一切按计划进行,再过10年或12年,我们将赶上欧洲主要国家的现有生活水平。25年内,在工业基础和繁荣方面达到相当于世界上最先进国家的水平。”
白色革命中建造的,为纪念波斯帝国2500周年建造的阿扎迪塔,时至今日仍然是伊朗最具现代气息的地标建筑。
所以在1971年,当巴列维国王在古都波斯波利斯举行庆祝波斯帝国建国2500周年的盛会,被请来观礼的全世界各国政要名流们,看到的是一个空前富裕、现代、世俗化,乃至自信的国家。《时代》杂志将其称之为“人类历史上最盛大的狂欢会之一”。
当时与会者,一定没人能想到,以改革成功者姿态出现在他们面前的野心勃勃的巴列维国王,会在短短八年后就被愤怒的民众推翻。而他们眼前的伊朗,会随之剧变为一个极端宗教保守的国家。
但这一切还是发生了。为什么?
3
如果我们以地缘学说方法去分析,我们会发现伊朗的确是一个非常奇怪的国家。这个国家在历史上,既不是我们熟悉的中国中原王朝式的农业国,也不是长期作为中国中原王朝对手的那种游牧民族联盟。它是一种奇怪的“旱田-游牧文明”。
伊朗目前的耕地面积1800万公顷,看起来不少,但即便经历了巴列维王朝的大兴水利,其中可获得灌溉的田地只有700万公顷,其中最高产的水稻田,更是只有区区56万公顷。全国接近三分之二的农田依然是旱田(与我国陕北等地相似)。这种旱田产量极低,农民们为了维持生计,不得不同时从事放牧等副业。
所以,由于生活状态非常类似于中国元明清时代挣扎于黄泛区的两淮农民,以及400毫米降水等高线上的长城沿线旱地农民。伊朗大量农民长期处在收入极为不稳定,没有多少积蓄,随时可能破产的生存边缘状态。
在这种特殊的环境下,不仅古典时代伊朗各部落一遇灾荒就会彼此之间发生劫掠、械斗,并最终优胜劣汰的碰出了世界上第一个地跨三洲的大帝国波斯。而且让底层农民特别容易选择聚集在宗教旗帜下,用强宗教结社的方式进行互保。
伊朗原生的琐罗亚斯德教(拜火教)最初就是为了满足这种需求应运而生的。
阿拉伯人武力征服这片土地之后,伊朗逐步完成了伊斯兰化。并在公元16世纪初(也就是《伊朗五百年》开篇的时代),正式宣布伊斯兰教为其国教。
伊斯法罕,世界之半
但伊朗最终皈依的是什叶派,相比于分布更广的逊尼派,什叶派以伊玛目(领拜人)为核心结成宗教社团,维持其组织内部互保的特性天生就更强。所以也更符合挣扎在贫困线上的伊朗传统农民的支持。
所以之后的几百年里,宗教在伊朗的社会生活扮演了一个非常复杂而多面性的角色——
宗教既是伊朗底层社会的稳定剂、粘合剂。神职人员会在农民破产,或村庄之间因彼此抢掠发生械斗时出面调解、提供应急救济。让底层农民对其感恩戴德,认为离开他们不幸。
但同时,它又让伊朗的这个底层社会总体趋向于宗教式的守旧。神职人员总是会最为激烈的批判一切试图改变伊朗社会组织模式、生产模式的尝试。让伊朗的基层社会始终维持在高稳定性同时也绝对守旧的死局中。
巴列维国王绝非昏君,他看到宗教保守势力与伊朗底层民众这种彼此深度抱合,并不惜血本、试图用向农村派出“知识大军”等方式拆散之。
但这太难了。内部教育体系完整,动员能力极高的宗教保守势力几乎一开始就看明白了国王和世俗派想干什么,并立刻作出了反制。
早在60年代初,伊朗宗教圣城库姆等级的底层农民就曾在毛拉的带领下进行反世俗化抗议,他们走上街头,看见不戴面纱、头巾的年轻女孩就进行殴打。国王对此严厉镇压,激烈批评“白色革命”的教长霍梅尼就是在这种镇压中被迫流亡的。
这里要说一句,在伊朗,像“女性不得暴露羞体,必须蒙面纱、戴头巾。”“男人可以随意休妻、甚至买卖妻子”等现代社会看来非常落后的极端宗教保守主义主张,在底层民众中其实是有相当号召力的。
因为,就像前文所言的,伊朗这片土地在历史上就不是肥沃的富壤,除了丝路上的少数商人之外,大量农民都挣扎在贫困线上。
于是,就像所有贫困地区一样,歧视甚至买卖妇女等等大量的规矩,是这些底层民众传宗接代的必要手段。
但现在,国王要推动全面现代化的白色革命,虽然经济大幅度发展,但底层农民没办法立刻受惠,甚至因为经济高速增长带来的通货膨胀,城乡收入差距拉大等问题,变得更加穷困了。
于是伊朗大量农村青年虽然因土改分到了土地,社会地位却下降了。因为放开国际粮食进口导致的农产品价格低迷,旱田本就不多的产出变得更加微薄。而进城务工者面临住房、生活等多项困难。他们受到新兴市民阶层的歧视,甚至因女性权益解放而娶不到妻子。
于是这些大量的底层民众选择了倒向极端保守的宗教势力。因为教士们会告诉他们,这一切都是国王、城里人、西方、美国所犯下的罪恶。想让日子过好,就要在伊朗回到过去,建立政教合一的国家。
而意识到这种动向的巴列维国王,则犯了一个更致命的错误——他为了镇压宗教保守主义的反对者,而停下了伊朗政治改革的步伐。
一般来说,一个国家在现代化进程当中,经济改革和政治改革必须是相辅相成,因为只有推动社会不断完善民主和法治建设,才能遏止经济快速发展带来的腐败问题。改革如逆水行舟,不进则退。
可是巴列维国王由于惧怕裹挟底层农民的宗教势力妨碍他的“白色革命”,选择了反其道而行之。在经济放开的同时不断加强其权力。
六十年代末开始,巴列维国王成立了大量官方机构,全面监控社会的方方面面,其中最著名也最臭名昭著的就是“伊朗国家安全与情报组织”,也即“萨瓦克”。该组织长期采用暗杀、绑架、拘禁、构陷等非法手段,血腥镇压持不同政见者。
特务组织“瓦萨克”的标志。
在国王的铁腕下,伊朗的报纸、电台等舆论是被严控、打压的。这就使得本来应该支持世俗化、现代化改革的市民阶层反而没有办法形成自组织,助推国家的进一步现代化。
但相反,由于国王毕竟无法取缔宗教,宗教人士反而可以在他们的寺庙里宣讲自己的主张。
于是,伊朗的市民进步派在这种打压下,始终是孱弱而散碎的,而伊朗极端保守派却越来越强,声音越来越大。
与此同时,在经济发展的同时选择强化权力而不是强化对权力的监督,必然导致了腐败的滋生。白色革命成功创造的巨量财富,开始被伊朗王室成员和其他当权者所截流、垄断。王族成员总共63人,却在瑞士银行有数十亿美元存款。国王本人也日渐变得挥金如土、穷奢极欲。他用黄金建造厕所,用钻石镶嵌马车,花费10多亿美元为自己预修坟墓,花费上亿美元操办了那场波斯帝国烟火晚会……
当然,国王也想过大力反腐,他曾成立了“皇家调查委员会”,精心遴选一些自己最亲信的调查者,像古代的“刺史”们一样,不断走访全国各地,严厉调查官员们的贪污和渎职。
然而,国王很快就发现一个问题——几乎所有伊朗地方上的腐败问题,都会有一根甚至几根线连通帝国的高层,这些地方上的贪官污吏,不过是上层乃至王室们用于吸取社会发展红利和民脂民膏的狗腿子而已。
比如巴列维国王的双胞胎姐姐阿什拉芙公主,就被认为是伊朗很多贪官的总保护伞。
而国王又不舍得、也不敢拿这些“自家人”开刀,因为这样会危及自己的统治。
所以搞到最后,一切“调查”都难免雷声大、雨点小。
于是,原本应当是支持伊朗世俗化和现代化改革中坚的市民阶层也对国王失望了。转而对国王的统治感到厌倦,并对即将到来的、越来越受底层农民支持宗教保守势力反扑持坐观其成的态度。
必须承认,中产阶层的特点,天然是因为“有的选”而眼光挑剔。实在不行,跑么。
到了巴列维王朝的最后几年,在政局的不断动荡中,大量伊朗中产阶层开始像泰坦尼克号上乘客们一样,大批逃离这艘快沉的船。
而这些人的后代,很多就是今天人们在世界杯赛场上为伊朗队加油助威的那些开放的男女球迷们。
这些伊朗好不容易培育出来的知识分子、市民、中产阶层、社会精英们,当然不喜欢越闹越凶的霍梅尼和其极端保守主张,不想让自己的妻子和女儿带上面纱,生活按教法行使。可是曾经主张世俗化的那个国王,他们也同样无心保卫。
于是他们选择了离开,这个群体在伊朗像煮开的锅里的水蒸气一样,逃逸、蒸发掉了。这个社会越来越只剩下了愤怒、激进的中下层,在那里兀自沸腾。
然后,爆炸终于发生了。
4
1979年2月,支持霍梅尼主张的伊朗军校学生发生武装哗变,哗变很快蔓延到了全国,大量出身农村的伊朗军人选择支持这场“伊斯兰革命”,把巴列维王朝的高官显贵、军队将领投进了监狱,并迅速集体处决。
3月,流亡在外的霍梅尼回到伊朗,并立刻发表了就妇女着装讲话:“妇女不应裸露羞体,她们必须戴面纱。”
同年7月他又以相似的理由禁止了他认为不符合宗教教义的音乐、电影、戏剧、舞蹈、绘画、雕刻和摄影……在伊朗如果被发现观看或收听这些东西,都会被道德警察找麻烦。
霍梅尼基于他对宗教典籍的研判,一口气提出了“七个反对”:
“反对殖民主义、反对帝国主义、反对共产主义、反对犹太复国主义、反对霸权主义、反对西方化、反对世俗化。”
在伊朗,只要你被认为有上述任何一种主张,你都有可能被认为不是新生的伊斯兰共和国的公民,而是国家的敌人,并将遭遇最严厉的处置。
1979年12月3日,伊朗举行全民公决,正式通过了新的宪法,建立新的、政教合一的伊斯兰共和国。
这个时候,的确已经没有什么反对者再能阻止霍梅尼了。因为自认为在“白色革命”中受损的底层农民,都狂热的支持他这样做。而那些最拥护世俗化、在改革中起飞的社会精英们,早已离开了这个国家。那些没有能力,或没来得及移民的中下层市民阶层,组织了一些十分微弱的抗议活动。
但很遗憾,因为伊朗的市民阶层从一开始就是过于年轻且缺乏组织的,又经历了巴列维王朝末期的“蒸发”和“掐尖”。这些人的声音已经无法决定什么了——他们宛如一个梦幻时代的弃儿,被抛弃在了这个日渐不属于他们的国度里,曾经的现代生活离他们越来越远了。
这就是伊朗成为今日伊朗的那个故事——一个国家,在现代化、世俗化的坦途上高歌猛进,却突然意外而又必然的中道崩殂的故事。
5
我们能从这个故事当中获得什么样的启示呢?
第一,国家的本质,就是一个民族认知的均值,诚然、伊朗的城市阶层、中产人口,其认知和文化曾经一度非常接近世界先进国家,但很无奈,这个国家的“基本盘”实在是过于沉重了,当伊朗的城市女性们穿着比基尼在海滩上游泳的时候,她们不会在乎也不会想到那些旱田里的老农和亲近他们的教士们在用仇恨的眼光盯着她们,而后者的思想,会在不久的未来让她们不得不在“逃离德黑兰”穿上罩袍和遭受石刑之间作三选一。
所以每一个超越其族群的认知的个体,如果不愿意沉默,最终都要为他们偏离族群认知的”方差“付出沉重的代价,诚然,一个民族的历史正是因为先觉者们而进步的,但具体到个体,看看那些在伊斯兰革命中或殉难或逃亡的伊朗知识精英、社会中产,你就能明了这个古老国家的沉重勒痕给他们留下的悲剧。
第二,任何体系都是有它的“发展容量”的,当伊朗选择了伊斯兰革命,从世俗化改革中退回之后,伊朗今天所呈现的原教旨、贫困和矛盾重重,其实就已经成为了一个注定的必然。因为伊朗伊斯兰共和国给这个国家所预留的经济发展“容量”是天然不足的,民营企业、城市人口膨胀到一定规模之后,必然与教法所限定的规则发生冲突,伊朗在每一次这种选择中都不得不进行割足适履,最终酿造了今日之败。
第三,这个故事告诉我们,即便时间已经进入现代,发展、进步、开放,也并非一定是一个文明自然而然的必然选项。已经启动的发展可能会突然停滞,已经走的很远的进步会突然倒退,已经开放的门也可能重新关上。
就像《三体》世界里的太阳不一定会升起一样,历史并不向人类许诺它一定会往哪个方向走,对个体而言,一切我们赖以生存、繁荣的环境,也许只是个偶然。
全文完
阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊自1989年鲁霍拉·霍梅尼去世以来一直掌权
伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)经受住了一系列挑战,但以色列前所未有的袭击标志着他迄今为止最严重的危机,既威胁到他领导的宗教制度,也威胁到他自己的人身安全。
哈梅内伊是1989年阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼(Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini)去世后的伊朗最高领导人,他在遭受制裁、持续不断的国际紧张局势中,无情镇压抗议活动(最近一次是2022年至2023年由女性领导的起义)来继续执政。伊朗:卡在历史深坑里
哈梅内伊已经86岁了,继任问题在伊朗已经迫在眉睫。但他现在的选择将对伊朗体系的未来产生决定性影响。自1979年推翻伊朗国王的伊斯兰革命以来,他一直是伊朗体系的支柱。
与此同时,他自己的生命可能受到威胁,一名美国高级官员表示,唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了以色列杀死哈梅内伊的计划,但以色列仍不排除这样做的可能性。
波士顿大学(Boston University)高级研究员阿齐齐(Arash Azizi)说,“哈梅内伊已经86岁,处于统治的暮年,政权的大部分日常指挥权已经不是由他自己掌握,而是由争夺未来的各个派系掌握。”
他告诉法新社:“这个过程已经在进行中,而目前的战争只会加速它。”
以色列成功地击毙了包括伊朗陆军参谋长和革命卫队(Revolutionary Guards)领袖在内的伊朗关键人物,这表明以色列情报机构可以追踪伊朗领导人,并提出了一个问题,即以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)是否可以下令刺杀哈梅内伊本人。
最高领袖哈梅内伊自上任以来就没有离开过伊朗,他最后一次出访是在1989年,当时他还是伊朗总统。哈梅内伊的一举一动都受到最严密的安全和保密措施的保护。
以色列总理内塔尼亚胡并未排除杀死哈梅内伊的可能性
阿齐兹说:“他们可能有自己的政权更迭计划,要么支持或半支持政权内部的政变,要么继续在最高层进行杀戮,希望这会导致对以色列的态度发生根本性转变,或者导致某种政权更迭。”
卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高级研究员卡里姆•萨迪加普尔(Karim Sadjadpour)表示,哈梅内伊面临着“自己造成的困境”,并且已经缺乏“领导伊朗进行一场高科技战争的身体和认知上的敏锐”。
他说:“对以色列的软弱回应会进一步削弱他的权威,而强硬回应则会进一步危及他和他的政权的生存。”
虽然哈梅内伊坚持与美国和以色列对抗的言论,并支持黎巴嫩真主党等代理人,但他长期以来一直使伊朗远离与其敌人的直接冲突。但这次以色列的袭击似乎代表着这一战略的突然终结。
“自1989年担任最高领导人以来,他一直以阻止伊朗卷入边境以外的冲突而自豪,”总部位于美国的反核伊朗联盟(United Against Nuclear Iran)政策主管杰森•布罗茨基(Jason Brodsky)表示。“所以哈梅内伊严重打错了算盘。” 伊朗的二次革命
布罗茨基说,与目前的情况最相似的是20世纪80年代来自反对派的袭击,当时的总统被暗杀,哈梅内伊本人在1981年的一次暗杀中受伤。
布罗茨基对法新社说:“在目前的情况下,哈梅内伊无疑会利用这一经验。但我们今天看到的是一个完全不同量级的故事而且它发生的速度有可能压倒德黑兰的能力。”
以色列在周四至周五夜间首次袭击的规模之大,令伊朗领导人感到意外。伊朗本应在阿曼就伊朗核计划展开新一轮谈判。在经济困难的背景下,伊朗领导层一直在密切关注是否会出现进一步的抗议活动。
事实上,空袭加剧了本已蓄势已久的紧张局势,许多伊朗人希望看到这个伊斯兰共和国消失。然而,至关重要的是,他们中的大多数人不希望以流血和战争为代价取得这一结果,”华盛顿研究所高级研究员霍莉·达格雷斯说。
内塔尼亚胡在接受新闻采访时表示,“政权更迭”可能是以色列袭击的结果,同时坚持认为这将由伊朗人民实现。
他说:“这当然可能是伊朗政权非常脆弱的结果。”他声称,“80%的人伊朗人会把这些神棍赶出去”。
当被问及以色列是否有刺杀哈梅内伊的计划被华盛顿否决时,内塔尼亚胡回答说:“我们做我们需要做的,我们将做我们需要做的,我认为美国知道什么对美国有利。”
伊朗的反对派,无论是流亡国外还是在国内,仍然因各种分歧而四分五裂。伊朗末代国王穆罕默德•礼萨•巴列维(Mohammad Reza Pahlavi)的儿子礼萨•巴列维(Reza Pahlavi)是最著名的代表之一,他与以色列关系友好,他告诉伊朗人:“保持坚强,我们将赢得胜利。”
然而,到目前为止,还没有大规模抗议的报道,尽管一些设在国外的波斯语电视频道播放了高呼反哈梅内伊口号的团体的画面。
阿齐兹警告说:“那种认为这会导致一场民众起义、改变政权或把权力交给国外的伊朗反对派的想法是没有现实依据的。”
编译:温克坚
上周五晚上,乃悟和很多网友一起阅读了湖南省卫健委、长沙市公安局等部门组成的联合调查组,对湘雅医学院学生罗帅宇坠楼案的通报。
简单点说,官方认定是自杀,之前大家传得很邪乎的那些东西都是假的或者片面的。乃悟和很多网友不一样,他们不信人坠楼后可以反弹出3米外之类的,但不管他们信不信,我反正信了。
乃悟最感兴趣的其实是湘雅二院原副主任刘翔峰。之前网传罗帅宇是因为举报他而遭到报复,联合调查组说不是的,俩人没有直接交集,也没举报记录。
刘翔峰2022年8月就被调查了,去年10月底故意伤害、非国家工作人员受贿罪,判处有期徒刑17年。但他身上的疑点很多到今天还没破解。
自从1998年于湘雅医学院毕业工作后,刘翔峰算得上是经验丰富,技术高超,此后20年,每年各种手术近400台,曾在国内外的顶刊上发表论文。
2022年开始,有大量网帖开始投诉他。比如他会向妇产科借血,故意涂抹在自己身上,以造成大出血的假象,恐吓病人家属。会把别的病人身上取下来的结石,然后把结石塞到健康病人被切下来的器官里,出示给家属看等。
这些帖子我一一核实了,基本都出自于各种知乎、自媒体爆料,没有切实证据。直到刘翔峰被调查后,这个恶魔医生到底干了什么,才被公众知晓。
法院查明刘翔峰的罪行第一是过度医疗。刘翔峰伙同罗原灯,故意夸大病人病情,给共计6名不符合手术指征的患者进行手术,导致其中5人重伤,1人轻伤。第二就是收受贿赂。
刘翔峰的判决书至今没有公布,但媒体们找到了不少受害者。
这些病人有的是身患直肠癌,明明可以保住肛门,却被刘翔峰一阵话术引导后切掉,从此一辈子挂着粪袋生活,出院前还被忽悠着买了一大堆蛋白粉。有的一次手术被强行分成两次做,给病人带来巨大痛苦不说,原本10多万的医疗费用,在刘翔峰手里却花了:
整整70万。
刘翔峰还会用言语恐吓家属,动不动给病人判决“死刑”——你24小时之内不来就见不到你父亲了。
极度惊慌中的家属,就会在刘翔峰的引导下,签署一大堆自己看都没看过的医疗文件。于是,这些医疗行为,都从刘翔峰的主观引导,变成了家属的“主动要求”。
这些手术不少涉及直肠肿瘤、肝占位、胰腺中段切除等,根据手术分级管理制度第三章第二十二条,医疗机构应当建立四级手术术前多学科讨论制度,手术科室在每例四级手术实施前:
应当对手术的指征、方式、预期效果、风险和处置预案等组织多学科讨论。
那为啥这些手术刘翔峰说做就能做了?
记者们从手术单上看到,不少手术的签字者叫刘国利。乃悟查了一下,刘国利曾任湘雅医院普外科二病区的主任。然而刘翔峰的事情爆发后,刘国利却把所有责任推到了刘翔峰身上:
问我干什么,问刘翔峰,他做的手术。
记者问刘主任病人的事情,还被刘主任反问,十年前的事情谁记得?你记得你十年前中午饭吃什么吗?
我记得啊,煎饼。
还有,一台手术可不是只有刘翔峰一个人在做,巡回护士、麻醉医师、一助等等。这些同事对手术的流程、操作一清二楚,你把一个血管瘤病人当肝癌切开,大家没看到恶性肿瘤,交代得过去吗?
健康时报曾经采访过湘雅二院刘翔峰的同事,其实关于刘翔峰的事情,大家都心知肚明,只是:
敢怒不敢言。
为什么大家会敢怒不敢言?湘雅三院的医护人员不就举报了自己的主任吗?难道刘翔峰还有靠山?
再有,根据家属的描述和反馈以及法院判决,刘翔峰主要行为是过度医疗,诱使患者多掏医药费。根据同事描述,刘翔峰去了急诊科后,急诊科不仅挑选病人,截留病人:
效益增长也很快。
那刘翔峰就显得很无私了,坑骗病人为的只是让医院多赚点?肯定不是,联合调查组的通报中提到,科室会将绩效奖金打给实习生,再由护士长统一收走。这里面至少涉及到科室护士长、财务的默契配合。
乃悟还注意到一个细节,刘翔峰喜欢给病人开蛋白粉。这些蛋白粉都是湘雅二院自己的三产公司生产的,病人不需要拿药方,只需要对着刘翔峰的屏幕拍一张照片,然后去营养科就能拿到。
营养科也太草率了,这么珍贵的蛋白粉,怎么一张照片就能拿走?
其实湘雅二院这些年一直不太平。2014年,党委书记被查。2019年,因骗保被通报。2021年,副院长卷入桃色新闻,涉嫌商业贿赂被免。所以这次他们希望低调处理也很正常。
刘翔峰被调查后,湘雅医院进行了一波自查,对15名工作人员进行了处罚,取消在该院行医资格,并对一些科室的工作人员进行诫勉,责令检查。
而最后上被告席的,只有刘翔峰和罗原灯。
题图由豆包生成,提示词:学生,教室
这些抑郁的青少年,他们只是某种意义上的“早慧”,他们过早地感知了现实水温,理解了某种规则的残酷。
撰文丨青柳
日前凤凰网一个报道,揭开了抑郁青少年的一角。
据凤凰网不完全统计,目前面向休厌学青少年的社区/基地在全国至少有25个。但是25个休学中心,恐怕接不住所有的抑郁青少年。
《2022年国民抑郁症蓝皮书》显示,我国抑郁症患者中18岁以下超过2800万人,占比达30.28%。
另据《2024儿童青少年抑郁治疗与康复痛点调研报告》,接受调研的1232个孩子患有抑郁症等精神障碍的家庭里,有过休学经历的孩子占53.85%,平均休学次数为1.71次,首次确诊的平均年龄为13.41岁,首次休学的平均年龄为13.74岁。
从这个统计数据能看出,超过一半的抑郁青少年会休学。但是真正专业休学机构全国只有数十个,加之这些休学机构价格不便宜,大量的抑郁青少年其实并没有多少机会接受专业疗愈。
这让人感到很沉重,青少年过得这么苦,而且人还这么多。
01
如果仔细看一下数据就能发现,抑郁、休学的出现,基本就是在进入初中之后。
时间点出现在这里,原因其实很简单——学生开始真正感到升学压力了。小学虽然也有学习压力,但在多数地方,由于小升初和学区房等绑定,孩子其实做不了什么。
但到初中就不一样了,他们开始要面对中考。加之现在有中考分流的政策——“有五成的孩子可以上高中,剩下五成的孩子上不了高中”,这几乎是让一个刚刚上完小学的孩子,就要开始“决定命运”了。
所以也没什么好遮掩,现在孩子的压力,绝大部分就是学习带来的。
这已经开始制造出一个个奇葩新闻了。就像前不久的舆论热点,大批中学生连上厕所都是被计划的,从而导致很多学生便秘。
而在更早前,大批高中开始放双休,舆论一下惊觉——原来那么多高中生是不休假的,比职场“牛马”还要苦。
而从社会氛围来说,我们也很不擅长给孩子减压。
前段时间有关高考的一个新闻是,东莞的家长集体投诉,硬是把张学友演唱会给延期了。哪怕这个演唱会是晚上举行,和高考根本不冲突;哪怕现场和最近的考场有近两公里,地图都要缩放才能看出来。
但家长就是“我不听我不听”,近乎胡搅蛮缠地解决了这个问题。这里就不讨论给当地带来的经济损失了,其实这对孩子心理来说,就是投下一个巨大的阴影:“爸妈为了你,连演唱会都干掉了,你可要争气。”
这种类似的现象几乎到处都是。神化做题和考试,动辄就寄托一个阶层流动、改变命运的宏大议题,高分贝地强调考试的意义,一切在它面前都要让路。
可以想像,现在的青少年面临的是什么生存环境:家里是唠叨学习的父母,出门是管到消化道的学校,好不容易拿手机上个网,全是鸡血打满的豪言壮语,是嚎叫着“壮行”“拼搏”“无悔”。
这已经给青少年制造了一个全方位的致郁环境。
02
这种全方位的紧张不是多余的,这一切都很“必要的”,学习压力确实很大。
如果新闻看得多,似乎有一种观感,就是近些年学生的学习内卷在急剧加速。在中小学阶段,已经很少看到什么松弛感,到处都是溢出屏幕的紧张。
上面提到了现在的中考分流,事实上按道理去读职业教育,成为一个产业工人,未见得有什么不好,为什么一下就把学生卷起来了?
其实稍微联想一下就能明白。现在的年轻人把考公考编视为最好的出路,这也没什么问题,年轻人想考公考编,只是因为这个工作稳定,体面——其实“体面”的另一个意思,就是公共福利保障到位,在社会分配中有更强的博弈能力。
但如果把考公考编的要求翻一遍就发现,有几个岗位对本科以下学历开放的?那么问题来了,在初中阶段,有几个家长,以及有点自我意识的孩子,能够接受被分流的“失败”?
大学其实也是一样,按道理经过这么多年,经济体量、大学招生增长了那么多倍,压力不是应该小一些吗?
也不要说扩招都是“不好的学校”,哪怕是顶尖高校,同样在扩招。比如2025年,“双一流”高校本科招生的规模,在去年扩招1.6万人基础上,又增加了2万人。
像北京大学、清华大学、上海交通大学、中国人民大学、西安交通大学等在内的985名校,本科生扩招数量多在100—200人。
但是,为什么还是这么卷,还是让这么多学生崩了?
还是像上面提到的年轻人偏爱考公考编,市场没有提供充足的理想选择,学生只能挤向非常狭窄的赛道。这也是为什么,现在哪怕是一个小学、幼儿园的招聘,只要有编制,就能引来一串名校和海归的拼盘。
那么无论如何扩招,人们争夺的都是顶端的百分之几。只有进入顶尖的这个梯队,才更有可能获得一种“体面”。
所以,为什么教育这么累?因为问题不在教育。
其实教育并没有什么神圣,教育之所以有附加价值,是因为关联就业,它是社会化的准备。如果没有这个意义,不是就业的一种准入,那么大学文凭的价值不会比幼儿园的小红花多更多。
而现在的问题是,成才出路狭窄,把压力倒逼回了教育。
这些抑郁的青少年,他们只是某种意义上的“早慧”,他们过早地感知了现实水温,理解了某种规则的残酷。
03
顺着上面,其实一些解决思路已经推导出来了。
比如解决中考分流的压力,一来可以像一些专家呼吁的那样,延后或是改变比例等。二来就是彻底取消所有公共福利的区别,包括各种什么落户、补贴、人才引进以及考公考编等。
真正让职业教育和学历教育在社会框架里没有区别,才不会有焦虑的学生和家长,也只有在这时候才是真正意义上的“分流”,而不是“过滤”。
再比如解决高等教育的压力,那么就是创造一个公共保障更加完善、平等的就业市场,大幅度拓宽“理想”的就业选择。
另外值得多说一句的是,要繁荣服务业。
服务业才是就业的蓄水池,才是“人人有工作”最坚实的兜底,这靠的是考研名师以及广大网友看不起的文科,法律、金融、外语、国际贸易、新闻传播等等,而不全是令网友匍匐在地的各种理工科。
据统计,2023年末,我国服务业就业人员超过3.5亿人,占全国就业人员的比重为48.1%。而这一数字,在发达国家要显著更高。比如在人们心中制造业“硬核”、产业工人“庞大”的德国,服务业人口占比达到75.5%,美国、英国、法国也均超过了70%。
这并不是说高大上的尖端学科、产业不重要,而是对于广大芸芸本科生甚至大专生来说,一个普通的服务业岗位才是最有可能的去向。
只有服务业足够繁荣,才有可能接住已经整体“中产化”的年轻人——这里的“中产化”不是指经济条件,而是教育层次、思维模式和生活习惯。常年做题,早已习惯和文书打交道的年轻人,是不可能通过进厂和送外卖解决问题的,只能是“坐(做)办公室的工作”。
说回那些抑郁的青少年。这些孩子,看似是被家庭、社会刻意保护起来了,“你现在的主要任务就是学习”,但他们不会生活在真空中,何况这句话已经传递了一个令人窒息的信号——学习就是他们唯一也是终极的KPI。
站在成年人的角度试想一下,一个打工人,他只有一个目标:成为主管、总监、P7P8,否则就是失败,不知道有多少人能够承受这种压力,接受这么逼仄的职业生涯。
所以,多理解现在的青少年,没有“少年不识愁滋味”,生活的苦,他们早就在尝了。