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数据开放|在园幼儿暴跌1600万,幼儿园小学倒闭潮来袭——

CDT 档案卡
标题:在园幼儿暴跌1600万,幼儿园小学倒闭潮来袭——
作者:数据开放
发表日期:2025.8.31
来源:微信公众号“数据开放”
主题归类:人口负增长
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

近日开学季,有自媒体账号爆料,上海浦东新区三桥小学5个班级仅有22名学生,却配备了23名专职教师。

教师比学生还多,太不可思议了!这样的配备比例,放在全球都非常罕见!于是,有记者给浦东新区教育局打电话咨询,结果被告知情况属实。很多人听到这消息,感觉都要炸裂了!大家都听过,一个遥远的山村学校,只有一个老师和几个学生,甚至只有一个学生。但这毕竟是在上海,而浦东新区又是上海最大的一个区,怎么会出现这样的情况呢?虽然可能是动迁的原因,但归根结底还是人口出生下降的本质原因。

这里面也折射出一些问题。

比如,上海的新生儿严重下降。

2024年全年上海新生儿仅10万余人,较2019年的16.9万出生人口下降超40%,小学入学需求同步萎缩。

往年这时候幼儿园都在抢生源,今年家长可能面临没得选的尴尬境地——附近的民办幼儿园因为招不到学生,已经躺平了,倒闭了!

2024年在园幼儿数为3500万。预估2025年在园幼儿数为3100多万,较2021年的4800万,整整少了1600多万!年均减少400多万。

今年幼儿园开始招收2022/2023年出生的孩子,2022年开始出生人口跌至1000万以下。

2022年到2024年分别为:

956万,902万,954万。

所以后续在园幼儿数会进一步跌到2700-2800万。

伴随幼儿的减少,幼儿园大量的开始倒闭,从2021年的29.49万所,降低到2025年的预计24万所。

短短四五年时间,幼儿园减少5万所。

根据国家统计数据显示:仅2024年一年就减少2万所幼儿园,减少的趋势幅度越来越大。

幼儿园的减少,最直接的影响是幼师的失业。

2023年,学前教育专任教师减少17万人,2024年再减24.18万,总人数降至283.19万。

连续几年,累计失业人数可能会突破150万!

而幼儿园的在园人数的大幅度降低,会给小学带来肉眼可观的冲击。

教育部发布的《2024年全国教育事业发展统计公报》显示,小学在学规模已于2023年达到顶峰,2024年,全国小学招生1616.63万人,比上年减少261.25万人,

并且2024年全国共有普通小学13.63万所,相较于2023年减少7200所,大家可能感觉7200所小学的减少量并不高。

一年时间,幼儿园关停2万所

一年时间,小学关停7200所,这是什么概念?

给大家举个例子:

整个安徽省2024年普通小学数量才5739所,包括整个山东省2024年普通小学数量是8147所,这样一对比就意味着每年小学的减少体量,快相当于一个省份所有普通小学的数量了。

这些失业的幼师并没有像网传的转去做直播了,30%的失业幼师转向0-3岁幼托领域,去照顾更小的小朋友。

毕竟直播不是一个稳定职业,挖花园挖成网红的只是少数。

而另一方面,有些富裕的多娃家庭家长开始聘请“家庭教育指导师”来照顾幼儿。家庭教师比只会做家务的阿姨薪酬高出数倍,一般也比其在教育机构拿到的工资高出数倍。

而据相关研究,幼师教育指导技能和养老护理技能迁移率高达72%(沟通/护理/健康营养指导/心理评估/能力),而养老社工岗位缺口超300万。

有意思的是,倒闭关停的幼儿园主要的转型方向也是这些:

1》发展托育一体,将3-6岁班改造为2-3岁托班。比如,山东对合规托班按每托位1万元补贴,普惠托育生均经费与幼儿园同标准。这个趋势之下,以后幼儿园的上学年龄将进一步提前。

2》发展为老年活动中心,补充目前养老院不足的问题。

3》还有些地方改造为社区图书馆,小学生托管机构等等。

失业老师考个职业证可以再上岗,工作地点都不带变的。

很少有幼儿园转做其他用途,如大家一下子想到的餐厅,会所,甚至改建别墅等。

是因为大部分幼儿园的土地性质是教育用地,不管是改成商业用地,还是住宅用地都会面临巨额的土地款补充。

住宅用地的价格是教育用地的两三倍,因为涉及教育资源规划,还面临很复杂的审批手续。

而目前幼儿园这些转型都依托财政补贴,比如,部分地区转型社区中心给予50-200万元启动资金。

最难的还是这10万民办园,或者2万非普惠民办园,如何自救成为问题。

有些幼儿园不得不转型"托管+研学",周末开设自然教育课程,与周边小学合作开发"幼小衔接"课程,从3-6岁向"0-6岁全周期照护+青少年课后服务"延伸。还有的幼儿园转型老幼共托,同一场地设置养老区与托育区,提供助餐、健康管理、文娱活动等复合服务,如深圳“老幼一体化”示范项目。

估计以后幼儿园相当大部分会逐步变成“社区服务综合体”!

建设性意见|道长走了,呦呦鹿鸣回来了,都别过度解读

CDT 档案卡
标题:道长走了,呦呦鹿鸣回来了,都别过度解读
作者:项栋梁
发表日期:2025.8.31
来源:微信公众号“建设性意见”
主题归类:审查
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

前阵子,道长的自媒体节目在内网阵亡,引来哀鸣一片,很多人将其视为环境变化的又一例证。

今天,公众号呦呦鹿鸣阔别一年半后又重新开始发文章,引来欢呼与怀念,也有很多人感慨虽然多有波折,但庆幸舆论场总还是有发声的空间。

其实,这些感慨或多或少都有些过度解读的成分。心情可以理解,但很可惜都与现实不符。

真实的情况是,对某一个自媒体账号的关或者放,往往只是受到具体某个事件或者某个人的影响,基本上都是孤立事件。

这些年舆论环境大的变化大家都有目共睹,但试图通过某一个自媒体账号的生死存亡反过来揣测风向的变化,注定会是徒劳。

对一个自媒体大号的处理,一般有几种情况:

一是在某个涉及现实利益的事件中得罪了一些特别有能量的机构或者领导,这些机构或者领导本人通过特定渠道表达不满,进而导致自媒体被禁言,有的时间长一点,有的短一点。

这种情况下,一般不会把事情做绝,还会给账号留有解封的机会。呦呦鹿鸣经历过的大部分是这种情况,被处理了就只能接受,并没有诉讼申诉机会的。

二是在某些特定时间节点之前,或者某些敏感时期之内的发言被判定为不受欢迎,账号就会被处理。很多时候,这些发言和相应尺度放在平时可能也就过去了,但在特定时间就会被放大审视,这倒是一定有规律可循的。

这种情况的处理往往就会比较重,因为执行者神经格外紧绷,会秉持宁枉勿纵,宁重勿轻的原则来处理,可能是账号被长时间禁言,甚至直接封号。

三是自媒体的发言触碰到了一些绝对不允许触碰的红线,或者相关发言影响到的领导决定赌上政治风险,一定要下死手整治,就有可能使账号被永久封禁。

前一类“绝对红线”的部分,一直做自媒体的老手其实都是很清楚的,等闲情况下也不可能去自杀式主动触碰,只有某些新手会在这方面栽跟头。但后一类情况就有很强的偶然性,有时自媒体自认为只是开展了常规力度的监督与批评,预估最坏结果就是作品被删账号被禁言而已,但没想到一不小心碰到了不理智的对手,非要把事情升级,那就只能认倒霉了。

总的来说,坚持为公共利益发声的自媒体,因为不可避免会触动一些权势阶层的利益,被禁言几乎是注定的宿命,时间长短不同而已。每次禁言相当于一次“有期徒刑”,到期后自动释放,并不能反映什么特别的信息,没必要去过度解读。

作为创作者,遭遇这种事本质上是屈辱的,并没有什么值得骄傲的地方。

区别是,有的创作者会遭受打击走不出来,有的则会心平气和对待,等到有机会发声时依然保持高质量的输出。

向道长和呦呦鹿鸣致以问候!

与大家共勉。

一点建设性意见:

看到喜欢的账号被禁言,不要问为什么,不礼貌。

竹不倒|从“20年的账一天还清”,谈官方没钱!

这是一个比较讽刺的事情,没有任何宣传的意义:村干部吃饭“打欠条”,经年累月欠下小饭馆高达28万元的账,欠得饭馆老板只能借钱开店,直到“撑不下去了”。

是不是感觉这一幕似曾现实?但是请先别多想,这是9月1日也就是今天的一篇新报道,另一件事只是“另一件”,与此无关。

但我觉得,这篇里的“画面”,更有水准。

img

套路情节还是老招数,干部们去饭馆吃饭,只打欠条不付钱。少的都不肯付,多了更不用说。欠着欠着越来越多,累计到惊人的28万,更没人愿意付了。

CDT 档案卡
标题:从“20年的账一天还清”,谈官方没钱!
作者:有竹不倒
发表日期:2025.9.1
来源:微信公众号“竹不倒”
主题归类:地方财政
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

地方政府自然也不愿意出这笔钱,一方面又不是自己吃的,凭什么让自己付钱;另一方面,“新官懒理旧账”,反正不付钱你也没办法。

但无论如何,欠债还钱,你不还,总得有个说法。

这个说法,便是“没钱”。

有点讽刺,在网上经常能看到发不出工资的报道,其中一些欠下的甚至是农民工的工资,理由同样是“没钱”。于是被网民调侃欠债的有理,讨薪的恶意。

但干部们吃饭欠的债,也可以用“没钱”当做理由吗?这根本不符合正常逻辑,因为没钱,就别吃呗?吃完不付,那不就是霸王餐。和"抢"的性质有些类似,只不过没那么直接罢了。

抢是直接动手,而这种嘛,无非是借了一个“干部”的身份,给老百姓一种“我有钱”的感受。说难听点,这就是骗与抢的结合体。

用身份唬住你,用权力吓住你。普通人看你的身份,以为你有钱;又怕被你用权力恶意刁难,只好给你赊账。

这是第一点:干部能不能去跟老百姓“赊账”?

我个人认为是不该允许的,想象一下古代的画面,一个县令吃了东西不付钱,说挂账,普通人能有啥办法,去县衙里告他吗?

至于第二点,更是讽刺异常:本来是没钱,媒体一报道,就有钱了,就在一天不到的时间里,把账付清了。

这次事情之所以上新闻,主要还是那个被欠账的村民,给民生周刊写了封求助的信,民生周刊记者跑去暗访了一下,给他发了出来。事情解决了,村民给记者送锦旗,于是引发关注。

img

那么我就想问了,到底是没钱所以不还钱,还是因为对方只是个普通村民,所以不还钱?

这两个答案,区别可大着呢。如果是有钱故意不还,那和违法犯罪有什么区别。可笑报道里用词精彩,看得我简直流连忘返。

“连夜召开”、“研究清欠事宜”、“推动问题整改”、“仅用18小时49分钟”……好家伙,我觉得这面锦旗应该送给当地政府,实在太不容易了。

就是从我一个普通人的角度来看,也实在想不通,还个钱而已,这里面究竟有什么玩意儿可研究。

而且,20年的顽疾,又何故只需要十几个小时,轻而易举的解决了?

img

村宴多年账未清,锦旗一面换分明。若非纸上风雷动,哪得顽疾半日平。

这让我想起《水浒传》里的一个场景:晁盖一伙人劫取生辰纲,甭管别人的钱是怎么来的,你本质上就是强取豪夺。有趣的是,晁盖这伙人嘴上说的最痛恨的,正是倚仗权势、武力横征暴敛之辈。结果他们自己,俨然也在做着相同的事。

不同点在于,生辰纲的钱财,是另一群人打着身份的幌子,披上合理的外衣,把“赊账”玩出了艺术,用比晁盖一伙人稍微文雅一点的方式弄来的。本质上,前前后后两方人,不都是吃拿卡要吗?

所以要说这条新闻带来了一些什么,两点最为关键。

一是“曝光”,把那些丑恶放在阳光下晒一晒,让它们的面貌给全世界的人看一看,比一切解决问题的手段和慷慨激昂的陈词都更有效。

二是“缩影”,这次饭馆账目的闹剧折射的最简单道理:当权力缺乏约束和曝光的条件,哪怕只是一顿饭钱,也能被玩成欺压的工具。

真正值得警惕的,并不只是那28万的账单,而是他们那份随意对待民生的心态。

上合天津宣言未提俄乌战争,乌外交部评价称是"俄的外交失败"

01/09/2025 - 16:19

9月1日的天津上合峰会期间,中国国家主席习近平和俄罗斯总统普京在各自的致辞中均谈及国际局势,以及对和平稳定的关注。该峰会所达成的宣言内容引发乌克兰政府关注,乌克兰外交部发文对此做出评价。

根据乌克兰外交部官网同一天贴出的声明,乌方认为上合峰会的主要成果文件天津宣言没有提及俄罗斯对乌克兰进行的战争,这一点“非常耐人寻味”。“自第二次世界大战以来欧洲最大的一场侵略战争,却没有在这样一个重要的、基础性的文件中得到体现”,而与此同时,“天津宣言却提及了世界上其他一系列战争、恐怖袭击等事件”,这种反差“令人惊讶”。

乌克兰外交部表示,乌方坚信,如果不结束俄罗斯针对乌克兰的侵略,公正地结束战争,就无法谈论可持续的全球发展、国际和平与安全,遵守联合国宪章的原则也无从谈起,世界各地区之间稳定而平等的贸易关系发展也无从谈起。

乌外交部认为,“上合组织峰会宣言中未提及俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争,说明了莫斯科的外交努力已经失败”。原因是“克里姆林宫仍然试图让外界认为,国际社会在俄罗斯侵乌的评估上存在分裂。俄罗斯试图强加一种观念,即欧洲和北美以外的国家,在俄罗斯此战的原因、后果和结束途径上,持有亲俄立场。然而,俄罗斯的这一企图被挫败了。莫斯科未能把诸多成员国的立场统一到一个令俄罗斯满意的共同分母上”。

乌克兰外交部最后重申立场称,“在评估俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略时,所有爱好和平的国家必须遵守国际法和联合国宪章。考虑到中国在国际地缘政治中的重要作用,乌克兰欢迎北京为推动实现基于尊重联合国宪章的乌克兰和平方面发挥更积极的作用”。

上合组织峰会天津宣言:成员国强烈谴责以美对伊朗发动的军事侵略

01/09/2025 - 15:57

9月1日,上海合作组织(以下称“上合组织”或“本组织”)成员国领导人在天津举行元首理事会会议,并发表《上海合作组织成员国元首理事会天津宣言》(以下称“天津宣言”)。天津宣言提及,“成员国强烈谴责以色列和美国于2025年6月对伊朗发动的军事侵略,此类针对基础核设施等民用设施的侵略行径导致平民伤亡,严重违反国际法准则和《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则,侵犯伊朗主权和领土完整,破坏地区和国际安全,对全球和平与稳定造成严重后果”。

天津宣言写道:“世界政治、经济形势及国际关系的其他各领域正经历深刻历史性变革。国际体系朝着更加公正、平等、更具代表性的多极化方向演进,为各国自身发展和互利合作开辟了新的前景。与此同时,地缘政治对抗愈演愈烈,对世界和上合组织地区的安全和稳定构成威胁与挑战。全球经济,特别是国际贸易和金融市场遭受严重冲击”。

天津宣言指出,“联合国作为独一无二的政府间组织,为维护和平与安全、促进经济社会发展、保障人权开展了有效工作,推动了必要合作。成员国重申坚持以《联合国宪章》及其他公认的国际法原则、尊重文明多样性、平等互利合作为基础,发挥联合国中心协调作用,构建更具代表性、更加民主公正的多极世界”。

天津宣言称,“(上合组织)成员国认为,有必要对联合国进行相应改革,保障发展中国家在联合国治理机构中的代表性,使联合国适应当今政治和经济现实需要。成员国重申,在发展上合组织成员国关系时将平等、全面恪守《联合国宪章》和《上合组织宪章》宗旨和原则,以及其他公认的国际法原则和准则”。

天津宣言续称:“成员国主张尊重各国人民自主选择政治、经济、社会发展道路的权利,强调相互尊重主权、独立、领土完整,平等互利,不干涉内政,不使用或威胁使用武力原则是国际关系稳定发展的基础”,并指“成员国重申,反对以集团化和对抗性思维解决国际和地区热点问题”。

天津宣言亦指,“成员国强调,在上合组织框架内的协作将为在欧亚大陆形成平等和不可分割的安全架构奠定基础。成员国注意到制定《21世纪欧亚多样性与多极化宪章》的倡议,该倡议旨在巩固欧亚大陆发展进程”。

就中东地区局势,天津宣言写道:“成员国重申,对巴以冲突持续升级深表关切,强烈谴责导致加沙地带众多平民伤亡和人道主义灾难的行径。成员国强调必须尽快实现全面持久停火,确保人道主义援助进入加沙,加大力度保障地区居民享有和平、稳定和安全。成员国指出,确保中东和平与稳定的唯一途径是全面、公正地解决巴勒斯坦问题”。

天津宣言补充道,“成员国强烈谴责以色列和美国于2025年6月对伊朗发动的军事侵略,此类针对基础核设施等民用设施的侵略行径导致平民伤亡,严重违反国际法准则和《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则,侵犯伊朗主权和领土完整,破坏地区和国际安全,对全球和平与稳定造成严重后果。成员国指出,任何时候包括军事冲突期间,都要确保核安全并保护核设施,确保民众和环境免受伤害。为此,成员国重申致力于通过外交努力和平解决当前问题”。

天津宣言还提出:“成员国重申联合国安理会第2231(2015)号决议的重要性和强制性,应依据其规定全面执行决议,任何试图随意曲解该决议的行为,都将损害联合国安理会权威。成员国呼吁相关方恢复建设性对话,共同找寻避免局势进一步恶化的解决方案”。

安理会第2231号决议于2015年7月20日通过,该决议是关于伊朗核问题的。决议敦促执行《联合全面行动计划》(又称“伊朗核协议”)的时间表,并对解除对伊朗的制裁作出了一些措施。在签订“伊朗核协议”的国家中除了联合国安理会常任理事国五国外,还加入了伊朗、德国和欧盟。

英国、法国、德国外交部长于上周四(8月28日)就伊朗核问题发表联合声明称,三国当天通知联合国安理会,启动“快速恢复制裁”机制,如果安理会未能在30天内就延长对伊制裁豁免期限通过决议,相关制裁将恢复。

根据“伊朗核协议”,伊朗承诺限制其核计划,国际社会解除对伊制裁。联合国安理会随后通过第2231号决议,对协议加以核可。这一决议包含“快速恢复制裁”机制,允许协议签署国采取措施应对伊朗的违规行为,该机制的有效期至今年10月18日。

在以色列和美国于6月中旬轰炸伊朗核设施后,伊朗与英法德三国(E3)举行了旨在达成新核协议的会谈。但欧洲三国认为,上周在日内瓦举行的会谈并未发出足够的信号,表明伊朗方面已准备好达成新协议。

值得注意的是,伊朗外长阿拉格齐周一在社媒平台X上发帖称,“我们与我的同事们——中国和俄罗斯外长在天津签署的联名信,体现了我们坚定的立场:欧洲试图援引‘快速恢复’措施在法律上毫无根据,在政治上也具有破坏性。通过宣布欧洲三国的举动无效,我们正式表明,任何一方都无法抹去事件发生的先后顺序:美国首先违反了《联合全面行动计划》和第2231号决议,而欧洲随后选择接受非法制裁,而不是履行自身承诺。这些不容否认的事实必须成为安理会任何严肃讨论的框架”。

在附上了这封由中伊俄三国外长签署,写给联合国秘书长古特雷斯、巴拿马常驻联合国代表兼安理会八月份轮值主席阿尔法罗·德阿尔巴(Eloy Alfaro de Alba)的联名信后,阿拉格齐亦称:“我们还重申了国际法的一项基本原则:权利与义务不可分割。未能履行自身承诺的国家,不得从其破坏的协议中获益。多边外交的信誉取决于这一逻辑。事关重大的不仅是伊朗的权利,还有国际协议本身的完整性。如果容忍选择性遵守和滥用程序,集体安全的根基将遭到致命削弱”。

阿拉格齐续称,“安理会的主要职能是代表国际社会采取行动,维护和平与安全。欧洲三国的提议背叛了这一使命,将安理会变成了胁迫的工具,而不是全球稳定的守护者。我们面临的紧迫任务是恢复国际法,并在此基础上为外交手段的成功奠定基础”。

此外,天津宣言提到,“成员国反对单边强制措施,包括违反《联合国宪章》及其他国际法准则、世界贸易组织原则与规则的经济措施,这些措施损害粮食安全和能源安全等国际安全利益,对全球经济产生负面影响,破坏公平竞争,阻碍国际合作及联合国可持续发展目标的实现”。

CEO who snatched boy's hat at US Open says he made 'huge mistake'

Getty Images Kamil Majchrzak pictured wearing a blue t-shirt, black shorts and a black cap. He holds a tennis racket in his hand.Getty Images
The man said he was "convinced" tennis star Kamil Majchrzak, pictured above, was passing the hat in his direction

The man who was caught on camera snatching a hat off a young boy at the US Open has said he made a "huge mistake" after footage of the incident went viral.

Piotr Szczerek, a Polish chief executive of a paving firm, said he was "convinced" tennis star Kamil Majchrzak had been "passing his hat in my direction".

"I know I did something that seemed like consciously collecting a memento from a child," he wrote in a statement. "This wasn't my intention, but it doesn't change the fact that I hurt the boy and disappointed the fans."

The video, taken during Majchrzak's match on Thursday, showed the tennis player offering his cap to a child, before Mr Szczerek appears to take it.

Versions of the clip were shared widely on social media and prompted criticism of Mr Szczerek's actions.

The 50-year-old wrote on social media on Monday: "I would like to unequivocally apologise to the injured boy, his family, as well as all the fans and the player himself."

He added that he had given the hat back to the boy, and hoped that it had "at least partially repaired the damage that was done".

Majchrzak, 29, who had just won his match against Russian ninth seed Karen Khachanov when the incident unfolded, told the New York Post on Saturday that "obviously it was some kind of confusion".

"I was pointing, giving the hat, but I had a lot going on after my match, after being super tired and super excited for the win," he said.

"I just missed it. I had like a dead look, if you know what I mean. I'm sure the guy was also acting in the moment of heat, in the moment of emotions."

The tennis star reunited with the boy over the weekend, sharing clips of him giving the young fan a cap and other merchandise on Instagram.

"Today after warm up, I had a nice meeting," the tennis star wrote, adding: "Do you recognise [the cap]?"

Majchrzak, ranked 76th in the world in men's singles, came back from two sets down to beat Khachanov in a second-round match at Flushing Meadows, but was forced to retire injured during the first set of his third-round tie against Switzerland's Leandro Riedi on Saturday.

He later confirmed he had torn an intercostal muscle.

Mr Szczerek and his wife Anna founded his paving company Drogbruk in 1999, polish outlet Tenis Magazyn reported. The company sponsors sporting events and Polish athletes.

The couple and their two sons are amateur tennis players who compete in local leagues, and have hosted Polish tennis pro Urszula Radwańska on their home court, according to Tenis Magazyn.

Is a UK heatwave in the weather forecast for September?

Is a UK heatwave in the weather forecast for September?

A man walks a dog in an autumn landscape beside water with a tree with red leaves in the foregroundImage source, PA
  • Published

Autumn has begun - meteorologically speaking - and the weather has turned distinctly autumnal for many of us with blustery showers.

The wet and windy weather follows what was almost certainly the warmest summer on record, according to the Met Office.

For much of the week ahead the weather looks quite unsettled with areas of low pressure bringing wet and blustery conditions.

Temperatures will stay around average until the weekend when it will turn a little warmer but will a September heatwave lead to a so-called Indian summer?

Meteorological pressure chart for Wednesday showing weather fronts over the UK with rain also covering much of the country.
Image caption,

With a deep area of low pressure moving in on Wednesday, it will turn wet and windy for many

Will we see Storm Amy this week?

The Met Office released the new set of storm names for 2025/26 on Monday with Amy, Bram, Chandra and Dave the first four on the list.

Storms can be named by either the Met Office, Met Eireann or KMNI for impacts in the UK, Ireland or the Netherlands.

While a potentially deep area of low pressure is likely to bring wet and windy conditions on Wednesday, it should not be bad enough to be named Storm Amy just yet.

There is quite a lot of rainfall in the forecast this week and into the start of next and it will remain quite blustery with the potential for localised gales on Wednesday.

Temperatures this week will mostly be around the early September average of 17 to 22C but warmer air will move in from the near-continent over the weekend.

By Sunday, temperatures across England and Wales should get into the twenties with 25 or 26C possible in south-east England.

Some media reports are suggesting a heatwave or 'Indian summer' but temperatures are not expected to reach the official heatwave criteria.

While the term 'Indian summer' is sometimes used to describe a period of warm weather once traditional summer is over, its origin comes from warmer weather experienced later in the autumn - in October or November - after the first frosts.

People punting on the River Cam, Cambridgeshire. One person in a punt holds an umbrella to shade themselves from the Sun.Image source, Getty
Image caption,

The heatwave of September 2023 was hotter than June, July and August of that year

September heatwaves

Experiencing periods of warmer weather in September is not uncommon.

We have seen plenty of examples in the past when August weather has been mixed and has then turned warm and sunny for September.

In 2023, the start of September was very warm with a heatwave bringing seven consecutive days with a temperature exceeding 30C.

It was a significant September heatwave, external - the longest on record - surpassing 1929 and 1911 when there were five consecutive days of 30C or more.

A temperature of 33.5C was recorded in Faversham, Kent on 10 September 2023, which became the hottest day of that year.

Having the hottest day of the year fall in September has only occurred on four years previously.

The hottest September day on record was in 35.6C on 2 September 1906 set at Bawtry, South Yorkshire.

There is no sign in the forecast for temperatures to be anywhere near as high this September.

You can keep up to date with the latest forecast for September with our Weather for the Week Ahead or Monthly Outlook.

More on this story

What we know about Afghanistan earthquake - and what we don't

Ariana News Afghanistan A group of children stand in front of the rubble of a buildingAriana News Afghanistan
Many homes in the affected areas are built with mud bricks and wood, making them highly vulnerable to collapse

A 6.0 magnitude earthquake has struck Afghanistan's mountainous eastern region, with authorities saying hundreds of people have been killed.

The quake hit at 23:47 local time on Sunday (19:17 GMT) with its epicentre 27km (17 miles) away from Jalalabad, the country's fifth-largest city, in eastern Nangarhar province.

It was shallow - only 8km deep - and was felt 140km away in the capital, Kabul, as well as in neighbouring Pakistan. Hundreds of people are thought to have died.

The initial quake was followed by a number of large aftershocks, which are thought to have caused further deaths.

Details are still emerging and it could be some time before the extent of the damage and number of deaths is known.

What we know so far

Initial reports indicate significant casualties and widespread damage across parts of the far western Nangarhar and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan.

These mountainous areas are extremely challenging to reach even at the best of times, which is hampering rescue and relief operations.

More than 800 people are feared dead, the Taliban's interior ministry has said, but warns that there is still no clear death toll. There are reports that hundreds more have been injured.

The BBC has been told that the road leading to the epicentre has been blocked because of a landslide, so the Taliban government is using helicopters to get people out.

Multiple sources from the government have said that dozens of houses are buried under the rubble. Aid from international organisations has been requested.

Access by road to the worst-hit areas remains blocked, but hundreds of homes are likely to have been destroyed, according to Salam Al Janabi from the UN children's charity Unicef.

The aid organisation World Vision says that entire villages in Chawki and Nurgal regions - both in Kunar province - have been completely or partially destroyed, with homes made of mud and timber collapsing and trapping residents under rubble.

An official in Nurgal told the news agency AFP that many of those living in the quake-hit villages had returned to the country from Iran and Pakistan in recent years. Both nations have stepped up efforts to deport more than a million Afghans - many of whom had initially fled the country to escape violence.

The earthquake came in the wake of flash flooding over the weekend which left at least five dead, according to local media. The flood, which caused landslides and damaged infrastructure, also temporarily disrupted traffic between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A map showing where the epicentre of the earthquake was

Why news is taking time to emerge

As we have reported, the nature of the terrain means it is difficult to access and there are limited communications - meaning it will take longer to get updates on the situation. There is also likely to be damage to infrastructure, making it even harder to reach affected areas.

During previous major earthquakes, the death toll jumped up steeply once access to the affected areas was established.

However, there are other factors that hamper both our ability to get accurate information about the situation and in getting aid into the affected areas.

Since August 2021 the country has been under the control of the Taliban, whose government most of the world does not recognise.

The return of the hardline Islamist group to power sparked an exodus of international journalists, with organisations like the BBC pulling many of their staff from the country.

Several aid agencies and NGOs also suspended their work in Afghanistan as a result - meaning there are fewer ways to verify what is happening there.

However, there are no restrictions on allowing in international aid.

Can Afghanistan cope?

Afghanistan was pushed into economic collapse when the Taliban took over and more than 23 million Afghans are now in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the International Rescue Committee.

Most foreign donations to Afghanistan have been suspended and international sanctions, which date back to when the Taliban were first in power in the 1990s, are still in place - although exemptions have been made for humanitarian relief.

Prior to the Taliban takeover, about 80% of Afghanistan's budget came from foreign donors. This funded nearly all public healthcare, which has since collapsed.

Jalalabad's main hospital - the biggest medical facility close to the epicentre - is already overwhelmed, being right at the centre of the crossing point for the tens of thousands of Afghans being deported from neighbouring Pakistan.

Afghanistan's financial assets abroad (mainly held in the US) have also been frozen, while the abrupt freeze on US Agency for International Development (USAID) earlier this year has significantly affected aid delivery.

Reuters A woman and two girls, who are crying, sit on a matReuters
Aid agencies warn that the health and safety of women and girls could be more in danger due to the restrictions placed on them by the Taliban government

Why are women and girls particularly at risk?

There are concerns that the health and safety of women and girls could be at greater risk due to the restrictions placed on them by the Taliban government.

These "continue to limit their access to life-saving services, leaving them [women and girls] among the most vulnerable in the aftermath of the quake", said Graham Davison, head of the Afghanistan branch of the international aid group Care.

Kunar is a very conservative area, so for cultural reasons, women might end up being treated later. It is feared some women may have chosen to stay, or wait for daylight to be taken to hospital by their families.

The powerful earthquake in the Paktika province of 2022 saw the number of injured women in hospitals rise two days after the earthquake.

It is also important to note that there are no female rescuers on the ground.

Why are earthquakes particularly damaging in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan is very prone to earthquakes because it is located on top of a number of fault lines where the Indian and Eurasian plates meet.

Earthquakes happen when there is sudden movement along the tectonic plates which make up the Earth's surface. Fractures called fault lines occur where the plates collide.

In 2023, a series of quakes in Herat province killed more than 1,000 people. In 2022, Paktika province was struck by a quake which also killed more than 1,000.

Shallow earthquakes are common in the country and are more destructive, as seismic waves have less of a distance to travel to the Earth's surface and therefore retain much of their power.

Buildings in Afghanistan also tend to be made of timber, mud brick or weak concrete, which are not quake-resistant.

A lot of damage also comes from landslides caused by earthquakes, which can flatten houses in mountain villages and block rivers, causing flooding.

A map showing the fault lines crossing Afghanistan

'Weight loss jab Mounjaro gave me my life back - the price hike is worrying'

Sammi Hill A selfie of Sammi Hill, a 33-year-old woman with dark brown hair. She is wearing a full face of make up and a pink t-shirt. She is subtly smiling. Sammi Hill
Sammi Hill was in a "dark hole" for years before deciding to start using the weight loss jab Mounjaro

For five years, Sammi Hill took hardly any pictures of herself, avoided socialising and "couldn't stand to look" in a mirror.

The 33-year-old said she gained 8st (51.8kg) following the births of her two daughters - now aged four and five - and struggled to lose the pounds.

She said she was later diagnosed with depression, which left her demotivated and lacking in confidence.

Last year, she began using the weight loss drug Mounjaro and said it helped "get her life back".

But a hike in the price of the drug means she is now reconsidering whether to continue using it.

She told the BBC she believed the price hike could negatively affect the mental health of people who are trying to improve their lives.

Last month, the US manufacturer of Mounjaro announced it was putting up the list price of the drug by as much as 170%, which could have meant the cost of the highest dose going up from £122 to £330 per month.

But the BBC understands the highest dose will now be sold to suppliers for £247.50.

'Locked myself away'

The mother of three said she was unwell throughout her last pregnancy and suffered from hip and joint pain that left her needing crutches, which she said affected her weight.

"It was really hard because I couldn't even stand to look at myself," she said.

"I locked myself away for five years. I was 10st (63.5kg) when I met my partner, and then I went up to 18st (114.3kg)."

At her lowest point, Sammi - from Mapperley in Nottingham - said she struggled to find motivation to get out of bed and brush her teeth.

Sammi Hill Sammi Hill, a woman in her thirties. She is pictured wearing a white vest and is looking at the camera. She weighed 18 stone in this image.Sammi Hill
Sammi said she had a lack of motivation for years while she struggled to lose weight and tried to manage depression

Sammi said she had tried numerous antidepressants over the years, but found her mental health improved the most after using the weight loss drug, which she bought from an online pharmacy.

She started using Mounjaro in July last year and within the space of a year, said she had lost 4st (25.4kg).

The drug works as an appetite suppressant by mimicking a hormone that makes people feel fuller.

It also affects metabolism and helps regulate energy balance.

Patients can be prescribed Mounjaro but the drug is also available to buy privately.

For many, the side effects - which can include feeling sick, vomiting, bloating, constipation and diarrhoea - are manageable and tend to go away in time.

However, experts have warned the complications can be worse if the drugs are abused.

Meanwhile, there have been hundreds of reports of patients having problems with their pancreas, which is not being studied by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Sammi Hill Sammi Hill and her husband Adam Hill. Sammi has black hair which is partially tied back. She is wearing a strapless wedding dress with a gold and green necklace. Adam is standing on the left, wearing a baby pink suit. He is taller than Sammi and has blonde curly hair with short sides. They are standing in front of a large tree. Sammi Hill
Sammi got married in August and said she had managed to maintain her new weight after taking a break from Mounjaro

Sammi started on a low dose of the drug but did not gradually increase the dose as patients generally do when using Mounjaro.

She said she believed she did not need to, having seen positive effects on a low dose.

"It's helped me with my confidence and I've learned a lot about myself along the way," Sammi said.

"A lot of people might think it's a cheat, but it's not, it's a boost.

"I didn't have the motivation to get up in the morning to brush my teeth, never mind getting up and doing a work out.

"It's taken me out of that really dark hole that I was in."

'Not just about weight'

Since using Mounjaro, Sammi said she had learned how to eat more healthily and understood portion sizes that worked for her.

She decided to take a break from using the drug ahead of her wedding in August and said she managed to maintain the weight.

Sammi hoped to start using Mounjaro again in September with the aim of losing another 4st (25.4kg), but due to the price hike, she said she was considering waiting.

While the drug will be sold to suppliers in the UK at a discounted rate, pharmacies and other private weight loss services will add their own mark-up to consumers.

Manufacturer Eli Lilly said the UK price of Mounjaro had to increase to be more in line with higher prices in Europe and the US.

It means the price rise for patients is unlikely to be as large as initially feared, but Sammi believes it will still have a negative impact on people's lives.

Sammi added for many, it was "not just about the weight".

"It is worrying because it's taking away that lease of life from people who can't afford it. It is expensive as it is," she said.

Additional reporting by Maria Rubio

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泽连斯基周四赴巴黎参加志愿者联盟会议

01/09/2025 - 15:58

法国总统府周一宣布,法国总统马克龙与英国首相斯塔默将于本周四在爱丽舍宫共同主持一场“志愿联盟”军事支持乌克兰国家会议,乌克兰总统泽连斯基将出席会议。

法国总统府爱丽舍宫今天表示,这场由约30个主要来自欧洲国家组成的“志愿联盟”会议将于本周四上午举行会议,未赴巴黎的国家元首和政府首脑将通过视频会议参。

此前8月18日泽连斯基在欧盟六国领导人陪同下与特朗普在白宫会晤后,本次“志愿联盟”会议将“讨论最近几周为乌克兰安全保障所做的工作,并评估俄罗斯坚持拒绝和平带来的后果”。

一位欧洲政治消息人士今天上午评估指出,华盛顿为结束俄罗斯入侵乌克兰所做的努力似乎陷入僵局的背景下,泽伦斯基将与多位欧洲领导人在巴黎再次会晤,讨论乌克兰的安全保障问题并推动外交进程,因为俄罗斯人再次拒绝和谈。

此前在美国总统特朗普的主导下,为结束乌克兰战争而进行的外交努力在最近几周加快了步伐,特朗普于8月15日在阿拉斯加会见了俄罗斯总统普京,但迄今尚未取得任何实质性成果。

乌克兰指责俄罗斯在拖延时间,假装愿意谈判,以便更好地准备新的攻击。

俄罗斯军队目前控制着约20%的乌克兰领土,并在前线占据优势。

自从2022年2月俄罗斯发动了对乌克兰的入侵,这是二战以来欧洲最严重的武装冲突,已经导致两国数十万甚至数百万民众丧生。

德语媒体:人口危机- 中国会重蹈古罗马覆辙吗?

null 媒体看中国
2025-08-29T14:16:05.130Z
德国媒体:人口危机-中国会重蹈古罗马覆辙吗?

(德国之声中文网)《商报》发表客座评论写道,在数十年的一胎化政策之后,中国的人口结构已经发生了深刻的变化:生育率持续下滑、性别比例失衡、年轻女性数量锐减,而这一切都与当年的古罗马帝国惊人相似。这篇题为《中国及其“无子女国家”风险》的评论写道:

“在古罗马,每个女性在绝经前必须生育五到七个孩子才能维持总人口数量。但尽管出现了人口不足的问题,罗马人却仍在积极推行所谓优生学(Eugenik|),女婴更是面临被杀的风险。而由于女性短缺,总人口下降的趋势也被进一步加剧。

中国也同样进行了控制人口的试验:1980年至2015年,中国实行了带有优生学色彩的‘少生优育’的一胎化政策。官方数据显示,从1980年至2020年,中国总共实施了3.69亿次人工流产,其中包括部分强制堕胎。仅2020年一年内,就有43%的妊娠被人为终止。

同古罗马一样,中国人工流产案例中的女婴也占比极高。2010年人口普查数据显示,0至9岁儿童中,女孩同男孩的比例为100:119。这种性别比例失衡带来了人口学层面上的长期后果:2013年至2024年期间,首次结婚的人数下降了61%。而这一趋势想必仍会继续,因为截至2050年,20岁至34岁的女性人口将会减少一般,而中国新生儿中的85%是由这一年龄段女性完成的。”

《商报》这篇客座评论的作者易富贤,是美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校高级研究员,他长期关注中国人口问题,也是中国一胎化政策的坚定反对者。在《商报》的客座评论中,易富贤写道,古罗马和现代中国所面临的人口问题有诸多相似之处,比如精英阶层缺乏生育热情以及城市人口密度快速增加等等:

”经历了数十年的独生子女政策之后,中国正在变成某种‘无子女国家’。到2023年,中国总体生育率下降至每名女性1.0个孩子,而在上海近一半城区,生育率甚至已经降至0.4。

商报评论:2023年,中国总体生育率下降至每名女性1.0个孩子

由于财政困窘、外敌入侵以及与日俱增的行政负担,公元395年,罗马帝国终于一分为二。人口危机极其严重的西罗马帝国不得不依赖移民来维持经济和军队。但由于无法成功融合这些移民,西罗马帝国最终于公元476年灭亡,欧洲也由此进入了中世纪。而东罗马拜占庭帝国则得益于较高的出生率和充裕的财富得以延续了一千年之久。

为了遏制人口下降的趋势,罗马帝国采取了比今日中国更多、更激进的应对措施,但仍未能摆脱亡国命运。而中国所面临的挑战则比当年的罗马帝国要多得多,比如日益普及的避孕措施,生育年龄的大幅推迟,以及大量资源需要被投入养老和护理体系,而不是用于家庭和育儿。中国如果不能逆转人口下降的趋势,那么罗马帝国灭亡的历史就有可能会重演。”

吸引中国留学生 符合美国利益

从发出撤销中国留学生签证的威胁,到欢迎六十万中国学生赴美留学,短短几个月时间里,特朗普政府又完成了一次令人大跌眼镜的政策大反转。《新苏黎世报》发表评论称,美国的这一政策反转,自有其政治和经济层面的考量:

特朗普总统:美国欢迎中国留学生。

“今年5月,美国国务卿卢比奥宣布,政府将‘激进撤销’中国学生的居留许可,尤其是那些与共产党有关联或者涉及‘敏感研究领域’的学生。覆盖面之大,几乎涉及了中国留学生的大多数。卢比奥的计划已经开始辅助实施,而且不仅针对中国。来自阿富汗、中国、印度和伊朗等国学生所面临的签证门槛被大幅提高,以至于很多人无法在开学前顺利拿到签证。

在这种敌对氛围的作用下,很多外国学者和企业家已经离开了美国。香港《南华早报》几乎每天都会报道中国著名学者离开哈佛等美国名校回国任教的消息。

去年,瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院ETH就展示了一种或许可行的中间道路:根据法律和明确的标准,对硕士以上学生、研究者以及雇员进行安全审查。为最大程度保障学术自由,这项措施不涉及基础研究领域,只有当研究项目可被用于军事目的、当事人具有军方背景或来自出口管制国家时,才会开展安全审查。

按照特朗普的说法,美国未来也将对中国学生进行审查。至于如何对60万人实施审查,目前尚不得而知。对于如何对待来自中国的留学生,美国显然还处于摸索阶段。不过,对华鹰派人物卢比奥将大多数中国留学生排除在美国高校体制之外的计划,似乎已经不了了之,这无疑是件好事。“

 

摘编自其他媒体的内容,不代表德国之声的立场或观点。

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冯德莱恩座机导航失灵 疑俄罗斯干扰

德正
2025-09-01T13:58:07.586Z
冯德莱恩在机场受到保加利亚官员迎接

(德国之声中文网)欧盟官员周一证实,周日(8月31日)下午,欧委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)乘坐的飞机在保加利亚普罗夫迪夫(Plovdiv)机场准备降落时,航机的GPS导航服务中断。

欧盟委员会发言人阿里安娜·波德斯塔(Arianna Podesta)表示:“我们可以确认确实存在GPS干扰,但飞机安全降落。”

发言人表示,欧盟从保加利亚当局收到情报,称“他们怀疑此次公然干扰是俄罗斯所为”。她还补充道:“我们非常清楚,威胁和恐吓是俄罗斯敌对行动的惯用手段。”

保加利亚官方发表的声明称,当飞机接近普罗夫迪夫机场时,“飞机GPS导航卫星信号中断”。

纸质地图帮了大忙

《金融时报》报道称,由于导航失灵,飞机在空中多停留了一个小时。后来飞行员决定使用纸质地图手动操纵飞机降落。

普罗夫迪夫是保加利亚第二大城市。该地的机场主要供廉价航空公司和包机使用。保加利亚空中交通服务管理局在给《金融时报》的一份声明中称:“自2022年2月以来,GPS干扰事件显著增加。

克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫对《金融时报》记者表示,“你的信息不正确”。

此前,欧盟各国政府曾在不同场合发出警告称,俄罗斯干扰GPS的行为正在加剧,可能导致商业飞机在中途迷失方向,从而引发重大空难。

长期以来,西方官员一直指责莫斯科对欧洲国家发动“混合战争”,包括网络攻击以及间谍和破坏活动。

欧委会发言人周一表示,“当然,此次事件之后,欧盟将继续加大防卫开支和战备方面的投入。”

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普京呼吁打造新世界秩序

德正
2025-09-01T14:06:04.830Z
普京还本周三还会在北京观看阅兵仪式

(德国之声中文网)俄罗斯总统普京在天津举行的上合组织峰会期间表示,北约必须停止东扩,否则乌克兰难以实现和平。他与中国和印度领导人会谈后强调:“要为乌克兰找到持久解决方案,必须消除这场危机的根源。”

俄罗斯于2014年吞并了克里米亚半岛,2022年2月向乌克兰发动了持续至今的侵略战争。2019年,乌克兰将加入北约和欧盟的目标写入宪法。

普京在天津的讲话还呼吁对全球政治秩序进行重组。他表示:“以欧洲为中心、以跨大西洋为核心的模式已经走到尽头。”据俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社报道,他强调,未来属于一种“能够兼顾尽可能多国家利益、并实现真正均衡”的体系。

普京同时肯定了中国和印度的斡旋努力。他提到,上个月在阿拉斯加与美国总统特朗普举行峰会时达成了一些协议,为乌克兰和平开辟了道路。他还已将与特朗普会谈的成果告知中国国家主席习近平。

中国和印度是俄罗斯原油的主要买家。印度总理莫迪在天津重申与俄罗斯的友谊,但同时表达了对战争早日结束的期待。

与此同时,德国联邦议院两大党团主席施潘(Jens Spahn 基民盟/基社盟)和米尔施(Matthias Miersch,社民党)抵达乌克兰访问。德国大使马丁·耶格尔(Martin Jäger)在基辅迎接了代表团。米尔施表示:“这次访问是在艰难时刻传递支持和团结的信号。”不过,谈及阿拉斯加的普特会,他语气谨慎地说:“外界曾寄予巨大希望,但现在更多的是现实的清醒。”

德国总理梅尔茨则宣布,本周将继续推动欧美之间的磋商,目标仍是促成普京与乌克兰总统泽连斯基的会面。他强调,应当在必要时邀请更多参与方,共同敲定停火协议。但他也直言:“我不会抱有任何幻想。这场战争可能还会持续许多个月。”

据媒体报道,本周四法国总统马克龙将在巴黎与梅尔茨、英国首相斯塔默以及北约秘书长吕特举行会谈。  

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Democrats scramble for a redistricting counteroffensive against Trump

Democrats are scrambling to keep their nascent crusade against President Donald Trump’s national redistricting push from fizzling out.

House Democrats are considering establishing an organization to raise and spend for their remapping efforts as they look to counter an aggressive Republican move that could determine control of the chamber next year, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately discussed redistricting with blue-state governors, according to another person.

The Center for American Progress is urging blue states to abandon their independent redistricting commissions. And, through private strategy sessions and public appeals, Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu is asking Democrats across red and blue states to take a no-holds-barred approach to resisting GOP redistricting. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin praised Wu during a meeting in Minneapolis last week for “igniting a national movement within this party.”

“This is an all-out call to arms,” Wu, who helped lead Texas Democrats’ quorum break, said in an interview. “That chorus of 'everyone needs to get off their ass and do something' is growing louder and louder. And more and more elected Democrats who are seen as doing nothing — their commitment to our country is going to be questioned.”

But Democrats face a lopsided fight.

They’re hamstrung by constitutional restrictions or independent commissions in some states, while Republicans are generally free of those legal barriers and have leadership trifectas in Indiana, Florida, Missouri and Ohio, promising state lawmakers fewer restrictions to draw Democratic rivals out of their seats.

Against this backdrop, Democrats are grasping for ways to counter Trump’s maximalist campaign to redraw congressional maps to protect Republicans’ three-seat House majority in the midterms. With a counteroffensive already underway in California, Democrats are turning to other blue states to take up the charge — and finding some open-minded participants in governors with 2028 ambitions.

Democrats see the promise of netting three seats in Maryland and Illinois, whose governors — Wes Moore and JB Pritzker, respectively — have spoken with Jeffries about redistricting, according to one person granted anonymity to describe those private conversations. The minority party is also eyeing a pickup opportunity in Utah, after a judge ruled the state must redraw its map. Jeffries has also spoken with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, though any changes in the Empire State are unlikely before 2028 and thus wouldn’t impact the upcoming midterms.

The blowback started as a tit-for-tat response to Trump’s efforts to grow the GOP’s majority next year, kicking off with a push for five more red House seats in Texas. Now Missouri is moving ahead with a new map as the White House bears down on Indiana.

One national Democratic operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the tumultuous situation, described jumping into the redistricting arms race as “the price for entry to the 2028 presidential primary.”

Caifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose popularity is soaring as he emerges as Democrats’ remapping champion, has been encouraging his counterparts to follow his lead, saying at POLITICO’s California Summit Wednesday, “We’re going to have to see other governors move in a similar direction.”

An array of party officials and organizations are lining up.

The National Democratic Redistricting Committee is fielding calls, providing technical support and legal expertise to state leaders looking at their own congressional maps, according to a person directly familiar with their efforts.

Wu, the Texas House Democrats leader, discussed messaging and other tactics with legislators from seven states where Republicans are eyeing redistricting during a Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee strategy session last week, per a summary of the call provided to POLITICO. And former President Barack Obama called Texas state Rep. James Talarico — a potential U.S. Senate candidate — to voice support for his role in his state's redistricting battle.

But in some states, messaging is all Democrats can do. Republicans in Indiana, for example, hold a supermajority and can pass any map without a single Democrat in the chamber.

It's not just Democratic officials who are getting involved. Unions that banded together to condemn Republicans’ gerrymandering in Texas are now pledging to put manpower behind Newsom’s ballot campaign in California and holding strategy discussions about combating Trump’s next moves in other states. And activists affiliated with the progressive group Indivisible have made roughly 5,000 calls to governors and lawmakers across 15 states with Democratic trifectas urging them to responsively redistrict.

“This isn’t something we had to go pitch people on the importance of. This is something people were banging down our doors about,” said Andrew O’Neill, Indivisible’s national advocacy director.

And it “does seem that this is something that has broken through with these governors and has the potential to create what I’ve been calling a productive ambition,” O’Neill said. “These people might be thinking about future job prospects for themselves and they view being a leader in this fight as a route to do that.”

Democrats’ pressure campaign is struggling in Colorado, Washington and Oregon, whose governors have all but closed the door to redistricting, and the party lacks the legislative means or the interest to change their maps.

Colorado Democratic Party Chair Shad Murib sent a recent memo to county officers outlining the near-insurmountable challenges in mimicking California’s ballot campaign, according to a copy obtained by POLITICO. Petitions attempting to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission are being filed without the state party’s backing.

Washington Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen shut down the possibility in a letter to a concerned constituent shared with POLITICO, noting Washington’s Democratic-heavy congressional delegation already does not reflect the political makeup of the state. And state Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad acknowledged “lots of pressure and desire” to take up redistricting, but pointed to a broad recognition that it’s “practicably impossible.”

On the East Coast, New Jersey Democrats are similarly hamstrung by state constitutional issues and though Moore told POLITICO "everything's on the table" when it comes to redistricting, a state court tossed Maryland Democrats' previous attempt to gerrymander.

But Democratic activists are increasingly discontent to let anyone in their party sit on the sidelines as they fight what they view as Trump’s latest power grab.

“These are serious times, and I’m not sure how much more serious things have to be for [Democratic governors] to get off their ass and get in the batters box and swing for the fences,” said California-based Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo. “This is infuriating.”

Natalie Fertig and Brakkton Booker contributed to this report.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

EU chief von der Leyen's plane hit by suspected Russian GPS jamming

Getty Images European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speaking into a microphone. She has short blonde hair and wears a bright blue blazer about a light blue t-shirt. Behind her is a folded European flag.Getty Images

The navigation system of a plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen was disrupted due to suspected Russian interference, the European Commission said.

A spokesperson said the "GPS jamming" happened while the Commission president was about to arrive in Bulgaria on Sunday, but she still landed safely.

They added: "We have received information from the Bulgarian authorities that they suspect that this was due to blatant interference by Russia."

The Financial Times, citing unnamed officials, reported that von der Leyen had to land at Plovdiv Airport using paper maps.

The Bulgarian government confirmed that during the flight, "the satellite signal transmitting information to the plane's GPS navigation system was neutralised".

The statement continued: "To ensure the flight's safety, air control services immediately offered an alternative landing method using terrestrial navigation tools."

Bulgaria's Air Traffic Services Authority told the paper that there had been a "notable increase" in navigation jamming since January 2022.

The Kremlin told the FT that its information was "incorrect".

Why Starmer wants No 10 rejig after a year in power

Getty Images Keir Starmer, UK prime minister, speaks during a multilateral meeting with European leaders in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DCGetty Images

Many of the names involved in Sir Keir Starmer's Downing Street shake-up are not even household names in Westminster.

But the latest moves, announced on Monday as MPs return to Parliament, are a big deal for several reasons.

First, in terms of organisational innovation.

If you're struggling to recall who was Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister before Darren Jones, the answer is that there wasn't one.

The role is a new creation, designed to give Sir Keir Starmer firmer command of the government machine he has complained is sluggish and unwieldy.

Bringing an MP into the heart of Downing Street's operations is unusual, if not completely unprecedented - the Conservative MP Steve Barclay was Boris Johnson's chief of staff in his final months as prime minister.

Clearer structures

For all that innovation, these latest moves are also partly about establishing more conventional - and clearer - structures.

This morning there were two directors of communications, and four people who could claim in some sense to be head of policy. Now there is one of each.

Reaching for the sort of football analogy the prime minister might enjoy, one government insider said to me: "No 10 has been like Sven [Goran-Eriksson's] England team. Lots of midfield talent who couldn't play together."

The second significant thing about these changes is the ruthlessness.

This is a well-worn theme of Starmer's leadership, but he is willing to demote, sideline or dispense with people who have served him very closely.

On the other hand, some of those being sidelined today were appointed not long ago at all by Starmer himself – so, to some of his Labour critics, ruthlessness is just a nice way of saying he is correcting his own errors.

Economic focus

Third, there is a pronounced focus throughout the changes on beefing up the economic know-how in 10 Downing Street. Jones has spent the past fourteen months as Rachel Reeves's second in command.

The civil servant now running Starmer's private office has spent his career at the Treasury. Baroness Shafik, the prime minister's new chief economic adviser, is a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, among other illustrious qualifications.

This is a recognition that this autumn's Budget will not just be a defining moment of the next few months but of this entire government, however long it lasts.

Some senior government figures are interpreting this as the prime minister wanting to take a bigger personal role in the discussions in the run-up to the Budget.

Those around Reeves say that she had been pushing for some time for Starmer to boost his economic team, and that she was heavily involved in discussions with the prime minister about the broader rejig of his staff.

Perhaps most importantly, this shake-up is significant for what it says about how Starmer himself sees his premiership having gone so far.

It is, implicitly, an admission that the first year and a bit of his tenure has not exactly gone to plan. And this is his attempt to ensure the next year and a bit goes a lot better.

The prescription is "delivery". And it may well be that Jones and the rest of the re-tooled team are able to deliver on the prime minister's priorities much more effectively than before.

Yet to many Labour MPs and advisers I speak to, the issue is more fundamental: they are not clear what the vision the prime minister wants his team to deliver is.

That is a question that only one person in Downing Street can ever answer.

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EU chief von der Leyen's plane hit by suspected Russian GPS jamming

Getty Images European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speaking into a microphone. She has short blonde hair and wears a bright blue blazer about a light blue t-shirt. Behind her is a folded European flag.Getty Images

The navigation system of a plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen was disrupted due to suspected Russian interference, the European Commission said.

A spokesperson said the "GPS jamming" happened while the Commission president was about to arrive in Bulgaria on Sunday, but she still landed safely.

They added: "We have received information from the Bulgarian authorities that they suspect that this was due to blatant interference by Russia."

The Financial Times, citing unnamed officials, reported that von der Leyen had to land at Plovdiv Airport using paper maps.

The Bulgarian government confirmed that during the flight, "the satellite signal transmitting information to the plane's GPS navigation system was neutralised".

The statement continued: "To ensure the flight's safety, air control services immediately offered an alternative landing method using terrestrial navigation tools."

Bulgaria's Air Traffic Services Authority told the paper that there had been a "notable increase" in navigation jamming since January 2022.

The Kremlin told the FT that its information was "incorrect".

House price growth slows as calls for property tax reform mount

Getty Images A couple photographed from behind walking down a residential street past houses painted pink, yellow and blueGetty Images

UK house price growth slowed in August, bringing it back down to around its slowest pace in a year, according to a leading housing index.

The average price of a British home grew by 2.1% in the year to the end of last month, a slowdown from the 2.4% annual growth recorded in July, according data from lender Nationwide.

August's rate of growth is the same as Nationwide recorded in June this year. The last time house price growth was this slow was in July 2024.

It comes amid reports that the government is considering an overhaul of property taxes in a bid to raise money and boost the housing market in the autumn Budget.

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society, told the BBC the UK needs a tax system which "allows people to move more effectively".

"It's definitely worth looking at UK property taxes," he added.

The average UK home now costs £271,079, according to the lender's data, which is based on its own mortgage activity.

Despite the drop in the pace of growth, Mr Gardner said housing remains unaffordable for many buyers.

"House prices are still high compared to household incomes, making raising a deposit challenging for prospective buyers, especially given the intense cost of living pressures in recent years," he said.

The news comes as the government considers ways to shake up how housing is taxed in the UK, according to reports.

The introduction of National Insurance tax for landlords, removing the capital gains tax relief on selling pricier homes, abolishing stamp duty, and replacing council tax with a national property tax are some of the options reportedly being discussed.

Experts' views on the changes are mixed, with some arguing the abolition of stamp duty in particular could speed up the housing market but cost billions in lost tax revenue.

I chose my Caesarean date to be eligible for 30 hours of funded childcare

Vanessa Clarke/BBC Three young children play in a wooden sandbox. The one closest to the camera is facing away, pouring sand into a yellow bucket from outside the sandpit. The other two are sat in the sandbox, looking at the sand in their hands below them.Vanessa Clarke/BBC

The final phase of the largest-ever expansion of publicly funded childcare support has begun in England, as thousands of working parents receive more help with their nursery costs.

Those eligible are now able to access 30 hours of childcare per week during term-time, paid for by the government, for their children aged nine months to four years.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was a "landmark moment" for working families, and that the scheme would "put money back in working parents' pockets".

But parents say they are facing long waiting lists for places, with nurseries warning that staff shortages are limiting their availability.

Parents Josh Harper and Chloe Hart say their 18-month-old son Oakley's name was the first one on the waiting list at his new nursery in Altrincham.

The £240-a-month saving on fees, which are falling from £1,130 to £889 because of the scheme extending from 15 hours to 30 hours of funded care, "just releases that little bit of stress", mum Chloe says.

"It is a significant saving and one that does really help us," dad Josh adds.

Both teachers, the couple were keen to secure a place, aware that demand has been rising.

Chloe Hart A family selfie photo of Chloe, Josh and their son Oakley, which appears to have been taken by mum Chloe. They are all smiling at the camera. Chloe has sunglasses on her head, and palm trees and a bright blue sky can be seen in the reflection of the window behind them.Chloe Hart
Josh and Chloe put their son Oakley's name down on the waiting list for a new nursery before it opened

The government had estimated that about 70,000 extra places would be needed by this September to accommodate that increase in demand.

The number of spaces is rising but availability varies across the country – and nurseries and childminders say inquiries for places have "gone through the roof" from families eligible for the extra funding.

"A few years ago, the percentage of families getting the funding was probably 20%, now I'd say it's nearly 95% of families," George Apel says as he shows me around the newly opened Altrincham Day Nursery, the Apel family's seventh nursery.

"Parents are having to be a lot more flexible with their acceptance of what days are available. Before, parents could try to match their childcare to their job, now they're actually matching their job to their childcare availability."

For Rachael Darbyshire, who lives in Bolton, the search for a childcare place for her return to work next summer has proved challenging.

Although she started her search before six-week-old Gabriel was born, all of her local nurseries have waiting lists up until September 2026.

"It is a massive help and will bring our bill down from £1200 to around £800, but the biggest issue is that it is only great if you can actually get a childcare place," Rachael says.

"It's all well and good saying that there are these hours available, but if the childcare places are not there, then it's not really supporting women in returning to work."

Vanessa Clarke/BBC Mum Rachel smiles down at her baby son Gabriel, sat on her sofa at home. She has dark, shoulder-length hair and is wearing a black top.Vanessa Clarke/BBC
Rachael Darbyshire's local nurseries are all full until September 2026

Some parents are going to extra lengths to make themselves eligible for the funded hours as early as possible.

Rachel Williams, from Warwick, says she was thinking about the scheme before the birth of her twins in 2022, when doctors told her she would need a Caesarean four weeks early.

She opted to have the procedure at the end of that March, rather than the beginning of April, so she wouldn't miss the deadline for being eligible for funded hours at the start of the April term.

"My friends all laughed at me, but it was a really conscious decision and it's definitely saved us thousands and thousands of pounds," she says.

If the twins were born in April, they wouldn't have been eligible for funded hours until the September entry points.

"You shouldn't really have to be thinking about that," Rachel says.

Rachel Williams Rachel Williams and her family, including her partner and two young twins, smile into the camera.Rachel Williams
Rachel Williams selected her Caesarean date so that she would be eligible for the funded hours earlier

Research from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) suggests that workforce issues could be a key barrier to delivering the promised offer to parents, with low pay and limited progression opportunities a constant challenge for staff.

It is estimated the sector needs 35,000 more staff to provide the funded hours expansion, and the NFER says even if that figure is reached, there are likely to be regional discrepancies.

The government says the number of staff delivering funded childcare in nurseries rose to 272,500 this year - up by 18,200 from 2024, which it said was the highest increase on record.

It has been offering a £1,000 incentive for new recruits, or for people rejoining the workforce in some areas.

But Mr Apel says "retention is arguably more important than recruitment".

The nursery has started its own recruitment company because of the struggle to bring in and keep early years workers.

The number of childminders has also been continuing its long-term decline, with Ofsted figures showing the numbers falling by 1,000 in the last year.

'Free' childcare

There has also been confusion around what is "free" as part of the scheme, and what has to be paid for.

The government-funded hours cover term-time only, and providers say the funding rates, particularly for children aged three and four, are lower than the costs.

It means many nurseries are putting up their prices. A University of Bath study tracking fees over the past 18 months found that they have risen fastest in areas with the lowest government funding, which it says could deepen regional inequalities.

"Parents are phoning up, they're looking for this thing that's been called 'free', and then they are met with additional charges, for meals or nappies," says Sarah Ronan, from the Early Education and Childcare Coalition, which represents childcare providers and charities.

"The sector has been tasked with rolling out the biggest expansion of childcare in history, and they're doing it in a really constrained financial environment."

She says without extra funding, providers may reduce the number of hours they can offer and pause their recruitment plans, further limiting the availability of places.

Joeli Brearley, founder of the Pregnant The Screwed campaign group and the parent support programme Growth Spurt, says there is "a tussle between parents and providers" who are both struggling.

"For parents, it's really complicated, it's not really working," Ms Brearley says.

"We are hearing from parents who are moving their C-section day in order to fit in with the funding criteria, we're hearing from women who say they've gone to their midwife for a sweep to try and bring labour on faster, and people that are asking for inductions earlier just so they can fit with the funding criteria - and that is madness."

A survey by Growth Spurt and Women in Data suggests that many parents are paying extra consumable fees of £15 a day.

The government has issued guidance saying any additional costs need to be laid out clearly and are optional, but nurseries say charging for extras is the only way to make up the shortfall.

Vanessa Clarke/BBC A nursery worker crouches down to the floor to play with a child at a kitchen play-set. The woman, who has her curly black hair tied up, is smiling at the child who is playing with a toy plate.Vanessa Clarke/BBC
The government estimates the sector needs 35,000 extra staff due to the funded hours expansion

There is also concern about those being left out.

Parents who are ineligible for the entitlements pay £205 per week more for a child under two, according to Coram Family and Childcare.

The charity says a child with working parents eligible for the entitlements will receive three times as much government-funded early education than a disadvantaged child by the time they start school.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said the scheme was designed to give children "the best start in life", and provide a "huge boost" to the economy.

"And this is just the beginning," she added.

"My vision for early years goes beyond this milestone. I want access to high-quality early years for every single family that needs it, without strings and without unfair charges.

"Over the next few years, that is my commitment to parents."

Children at risk of identity theft by parents posting pictures, research suggests

Getty Images A young boy with an orange backpack on holding his mother's hand and looking into the distance. Getty Images

Children are at increased risk of being harassed, cyber-bullied and having their identities stolen in later life by having their photos posted online by parents, according to new research.

So-called "sharenting" - documenting a child's special moments on social media - has become commonplace, but academics now warn this could come with unexpected risks.

University of Southampton researchers said their findings indicated it increased the risk of children becoming the victims of cyber-crime.

"These findings highlight the serious risks which children can face when photos and videos of them are shared widely on social media," the NSPCC child safety online policy manager Rani Govender told the BBC.

"Sharing photos or videos of children at scale across the online world can put their safety, privacy and wellbeing at risk," she said.

The researchers surveyed more than 1,000 parents in the UK, and then conducted follow-up interviews.

They found 45% of parents they spoke to actively put photos of their kids online - while one-in-six reported their child had experienced harms.

One concern is that the media being shared online could reveal details like birthdays, addresses, pet names, and so on - which later in life could increase the risk of identity fraud.

"Sharenting poses a real and present danger to our children," lead researcher Pamela Ugwudike said.

"By proudly sharing photos and information about children on social media, parents are unwittingly putting them at risk of harm, both online such as cyberbullying, and in the real world – not just now, but also years down the line."

She warned that, when pictures are shared, strangers could use that information to contact children not only online, but offline too.

'Years down the line'

Sharenting has proven to be a controversial topic in the past, with some arguing it is an invasion of privacy.

It became a hot topic in 2019 when Gwyneth Paltrow posted a picture with her daughter Apple on Instagram - who then said she didn't give her mother permission for the image to be shared.

At the time, one of the concerns was parents not being aware of privacy settings - which the researchers reported remains an issue now.

They found parents, carers and relatives - as well as schools - were largely unaware of the way privacy features on social media can be overridden by certain actions.

"This research shows parents overestimate the protection offered by privacy settings," Ms Govender said.

"Features like tagging and resharing can bypass these protections, allowing content to spread beyond the intended audience even from 'private' accounts."

Meanwhile, the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF) warned there were other risks linked to sharenting.

"We have seen criminals in the darkest parts of the internet boasting that they can use AI image generators to create life-like nude and sexual imagery of any child they like with only a handful of normal, non-sexual images," said IWF head Kerry Smith.

She warned AI now poses a whole new range of harms including "the risk of sexual extortion" if the pictures were used to threaten or blackmail a child.

"AI imagery of children can now be so realistic, it is indistinguishable from real imagery," she said.

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'Weight loss jabs gave me my life back'

Sammi Hill A selfie of Sammi Hill, a 33-year-old woman with dark brown hair. She is wearing a full face of make up and a pink t-shirt. She is subtly smiling. Sammi Hill
Sammi Hill was in a "dark hole" for years before deciding to start using the weight loss jab Mounjaro

For five years, Sammi Hill took hardly any pictures of herself, avoided socialising and "couldn't stand to look" in a mirror.

The 33-year-old said she gained 8st (51.8kg) following the births of her two daughters - now aged four and five - and struggled to lose the pounds.

She said she was later diagnosed with depression, which left her demotivated and lacking in confidence.

Last year, she began using the weight loss drug Mounjaro and said it helped "get her life back".

But a hike in the price of the drug means she is now reconsidering whether to continue using it.

She told the BBC she believed the price hike could negatively affect the mental health of people who are trying to improve their lives.

Last month, the US manufacturer of Mounjaro announced it was putting up the list price of the drug by as much as 170%, which could have meant the cost of the highest dose going up from £122 to £330 per month.

But the BBC understands the highest dose will now be sold to suppliers for £247.50.

'Locked myself away'

The mother of three said she was unwell throughout her last pregnancy and suffered from hip and joint pain that left her needing crutches, which she said affected her weight.

"It was really hard because I couldn't even stand to look at myself," she said.

"I locked myself away for five years. I was 10st (63.5kg) when I met my partner, and then I went up to 18st (114.3kg)."

At her lowest point, Sammi - from Mapperley in Nottingham - said she struggled to find motivation to get out of bed and brush her teeth.

Sammi Hill Sammi Hill, a woman in her thirties. She is pictured wearing a white vest and is looking at the camera. She weighed 18 stone in this image.Sammi Hill
Sammi said she had a lack of motivation for years while she struggled to lose weight and tried to manage depression

Sammi said she had tried numerous antidepressants over the years, but found her mental health improved the most after using the weight loss drug, which she bought from an online pharmacy.

She started using Mounjaro in July last year and within the space of a year, said she had lost 4st (25.4kg).

The drug works as an appetite suppressant by mimicking a hormone that makes people feel fuller.

It also affects metabolism and helps regulate energy balance.

Patients can be prescribed Mounjaro but the drug is also available to buy privately.

For many, the side effects - which can include feeling sick, vomiting, bloating, constipation and diarrhoea - are manageable and tend to go away in time.

However, experts have warned the complications can be worse if the drugs are abused.

Meanwhile, there have been hundreds of reports of patients having problems with their pancreas, which is not being studied by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Sammi Hill Sammi Hill and her husband Adam Hill. Sammi has black hair which is partially tied back. She is wearing a strapless wedding dress with a gold and green necklace. Adam is standing on the left, wearing a baby pink suit. He is taller than Sammi and has blonde curly hair with short sides. They are standing in front of a large tree. Sammi Hill
Sammi got married in August and said she had managed to maintain her new weight after taking a break from Mounjaro

Sammi started on a low dose of the drug but did not gradually increase the dose as patients generally do when using Mounjaro.

She said she believed she did not need to, having seen positive effects on a low dose.

"It's helped me with my confidence and I've learned a lot about myself along the way," Sammi said.

"A lot of people might think it's a cheat, but it's not, it's a boost.

"I didn't have the motivation to get up in the morning to brush my teeth, never mind getting up and doing a work out.

"It's taken me out of that really dark hole that I was in."

'Not just about weight'

Since using Mounjaro, Sammi said she had learned how to eat more healthily and understood portion sizes that worked for her.

She decided to take a break from using the drug ahead of her wedding in August and said she managed to maintain the weight.

Sammi hoped to start using Mounjaro again in September with the aim of losing another 4st (25.4kg), but due to the price hike, she said she was considering waiting.

While the drug will be sold to suppliers in the UK at a discounted rate, pharmacies and other private weight loss services will add their own mark-up to consumers.

Manufacturer Eli Lilly said the UK price of Mounjaro had to increase to be more in line with higher prices in Europe and the US.

It means the price rise for patients is unlikely to be as large as initially feared, but Sammi believes it will still have a negative impact on people's lives.

Sammi added for many, it was "not just about the weight".

"It is worrying because it's taking away that lease of life from people who can't afford it. It is expensive as it is," she said.

Additional reporting by Maria Rubio

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“我不是勇士,但不想继续在粪坑里说粪香”——重庆标语投影事件当事人戚洪专访

null 郝煜 
2025-09-01T12:52:56.940Z
戚洪受四通桥事件的彭立发等人启发,在重庆投影反共标语。

(德国之声中文网)8月29日晚,一场震动国际的“光影抗议”在重庆上演。重庆大学城核心商业区一栋高楼外墙上,突然出现数条巨幅投影标语

“打倒红色法西斯,推翻共产党暴政!”

“没有共产党才有新中国,自由不是恩赐要去夺回!”

“起来吧不愿意做奴隶的人们,起来反抗夺回自己的权利!”

“不要谎言要真相,不要奴役要自由,暴政共产党下台!”

这场持续近五十分钟的投影抗议迅速传遍网络,引起国际舆论关注。警方最终锁定光源,却只在房间里找到一封劝告“不要助纣为虐”的手写公开信。

事件发起者戚洪,如今已带着妻子和两个女儿身在英国。他的名字在社交媒体上被不少人称为“勇士”,但在伦敦郊外一间咖啡馆与记者见面时,他摇头说:“我不是什么勇士,我是一个普通人。只是忍无可忍,总得有人出来做点什么吧。”

在重庆投影了反共标语的戚洪在伦敦受访

在伦敦的会面

戚洪中等身材,身形健壮,头戴灰色棒球帽,衬衫扎进牛仔裤,脚踏运动鞋,看上去干练爽快。虽然他笑着开场,但也坦言自己“这几天没怎么休息好”。

“紧张主要是担心国内的亲人会被牵连。我后来跟家里人说了,这次可能回不去中国了。”据他透露,重庆老家的亲戚已经被警方登门盘问。

从“仇恨宣传”到投影抗议

谈及这次行动的直接动因,戚洪提到中共9·3北京大阅兵前夕铺天盖地的“仇恨宣传”。

“我学佛以后,对政府动用国家机器煽动仇恨特别反感。种下仇恨的因,就会结出仇恨的果。”在他看来,中共不断渲染日本侵华的历史,却从不反思自身在内战、土改、大跃进、文革、六四等运动中制造的无数惨剧。

“看到他们再一次煽动仇恨,我实在忍无可忍。”

筹划到执行用了两三个月时间。原本他计划在9月2日(阅兵前夕)投影,但担心旅店房间提前被发现,最终决定8月29日先行行动。“旅店房间一天200多块钱,我干脆一下租到9月3日。”

戚洪说,他发起投影行动,并非一时冲动

漫长的觉醒:读书与学佛

戚洪并不讳言,投影事件并非一时冲动,而是长期积累的结果。

“我16岁就被迫辍学,但我一直喜欢读书。特别是当我读了《1984》、《动物农场》、《美丽新世界》,感觉如梦初醒——几十年前别人写的,不就是我们现在的生活吗?”

此外,他的学佛经历也让他更加坚定:“我常跟孩子们讲因果。我不希望他们继续活在这种社会。中国社会就像粪坑,而你在里面还要被迫说‘粪好香’。”

参考前人,留下火种

在构思抗议方式时,他受到“北京四通桥勇士”彭立发、“白纸运动”年轻人,以及2023年济南投影标语的柴松启发。

“最终选择大学城,是因为那里的学生就像种子,虽然不会马上行动,但总有一天会觉醒。”

为了效果,他甚至买了雕刻机自己刻字,调试投影机光角度与焦距。但他笑说:“字还是小了点,如果再大一些就完美了。”

在房间里,他留下了一封信,写道:“共产党在这片土地上犯下的罪恶,罄竹难书。请尽量不要助纣为虐……也许你现在是受益者,但终有一天你会是受害者。若迫不得已,可以把枪口往上抬一点。”

他说写信是“临时起意”,只是希望能在警察心里埋下一颗良知的种子。

戚洪在信上写道,中国共产党政府以谎言治国,以暴力压制正义之士和敢于出头的人,呼吁民众“要觉醒去了解真相,真相就是真相”。

未来仍是未知数

戚洪透露,他想过去美国,但最终考虑到英国的签证条件、以及这里是《大宪章》与现代民主制度的发源地,才带家人来到伦敦。

然而,新的环境同样让他有些不适应:“来到英国后,突然发现所有叙事语境都不一样了。”目前前途未定,未来如何,他坦言仍是个问号。

 

DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

海南在港首推航天主题离岸人民币地方政府债券

中国海南省将在香港首次推出以航天为主题的离岸人民币地方政府债券。

综合中国新闻社和中国日报网报道,海南省财政厅星期一(9月1日)发布的公告显示,海南省政府计划于9月择机在香港簿记建档发行不超过50亿元离岸人民币(约9亿新元)地方政府债券,并将在香港联合交易所挂牌上市,发行期限为三年、五年和10年,为国际投资者提供更多人民币资产配置选择。

继2022年至2024年连续三年在香港发行离岸人民币地方政府债券后,今年海南省政府将第四次赴港发债,并将首次发行航天主题债券。

海南省政府共发行三只离岸人民币地方政府债券,其中三年期为可持续发展债券、五年期为蓝色债券、10年期为航天主题债券。募集资金主要投向海洋保护、民生保障以及航天领域相关重点科研和基础设施项目。

下午察:吴京被嘲 是爱国没流量还是硬汉没市场?

中国影视演员吴京出品的电影近期因票房惨淡提前撤档。网民翻出他在多年前的一次访谈,其中一句“坦克里没有后视镜”成为热梗。 (访谈视频截图)

曾是大银幕上的战狼、爱国流量的担当,在过去一周却成了网民恶搞和奚落的对象。

中国影视演员吴京担任出品人并友情演出的最新作品《再见,坏蛋》,上映仅一周,累计票房仅收26万7000元人民币(4万8072新元),票房惨淡,影片方上个星期三(8月27日)宣布撤档。网民纷纷议论,是吴京的票房号召力不再,“京疲力尽”了。

与此同时,互联网上出现了许多恶搞吴京的视频和图片,硬汉形象变成互联网上“搞抽象”的迷因。

上合组织天津峰会宣言:支持维护加强非歧视多边贸易体制

上海合作组织成员国领导人星期一(9月1日)在中国天津举行元首理事会会议,并发表宣言提出,支持维护和加强非歧视的多边贸易体制。

据新华社报道,成员国在宣言中认为,有必要对联合国进行相应改革,保障发展中国家在联合国治理机构中的代表性,使联合国适应当今政治和经济现实需要。

成员国主张尊重各国人民自主选择政治、经济、社会发展道路的权利,强调相互尊重主权、独立、领土完整,平等互利,不干涉内政,不使用或威胁使用武力原则是国际关系稳定发展的基础。

成员国重申,坚持继续深化共同打击恐怖主义、分裂主义和极端主义,以及非法贩运麻醉药品、精神药物及其前体,武器走私等其他跨国有组织犯罪合作。

成员国指出,确保中东和平与稳定的唯一途径是全面、公正地解决巴勒斯坦问题,并强烈谴责以色列和美国今年6月对伊朗发动的军事侵略导致平民伤亡,破坏地区和国际安全,对全球和平与稳定造成严重后果。

成员国支持进一步完善和改革全球经济治理体系,将坚定维护和加强以国际公认的原则和规则为基础的开放、透明、公正、包容、非歧视的多边贸易体制,促进开放型世界经济发展,保障公平市场准入和对发展中国家的特殊和差别待遇。

成员国反对单边强制措施,包括违反《联合国宪章》及其他国际法准则、世界贸易组织原则与规则的经济措施,这些措施损害粮食安全和能源安全等国际安全利益,对全球经济产生负面影响,破坏公平竞争,阻碍国际合作及联合国可持续发展目标的实现。

成员国领导人签署并发表上述宣言,批准《上合组织未来10年(2026-2035年)发展战略》,发表关于第二次世界大战胜利和联合国成立80周年的声明、关于支持多边贸易体制的声明,通过加强安全、经济、人文合作和组织建设等24份成果文件。

成员国领导人共同见证上海合作组织应对安全威胁与挑战综合中心、打击跨国有组织犯罪中心、信息安全中心、禁毒中心揭牌。

会议一致同意接收老挝为对话伙伴,决定由吉尔吉斯斯坦接任2025至2026年度上海合作组织轮值主席国。

台湾前国大代表蔡志弘表态参选国民党主席

国民党主席参选者又增一人,台湾前国代、海基会前顾问蔡志弘盼当选后,为促进两岸和平与确保台湾经济繁荣贡献心力。

台湾联合新闻网星期一(9月1日)报道,蔡志弘表态角逐国民党主席,并将于星期五(5日)上午举行参选记者会。据介绍,蔡志弘曾任第三届国大代表,期间拒绝执行“两国论”入宪,并受命组团访问中国大陆,商讨结束两岸敌对状态。

蔡志弘罗列他决定参选的三点原因。他认为,两岸危机重重,他有处理、斡旋美中台关系的实务经验,若当选将访问大陆,推动国共领导人会面,向对岸表达台海和平的重要性。

蔡志弘也表态,若当选党主席,将支持台中市长卢秀燕成为2028总统候选人,扩大县市执政版图,同时为国民党赢回中央执政权。在此过程中,他将深化蓝(国民党)白(民众党)合利基,形成最强的兄弟联盟。

针对美国关税压迫下台湾中小企业受困,蔡志弘说他有长年经营企业的经验,并深知国际经贸谈判的关键。他当选后必将发挥国会战力,强力监督政府,推动民生法案,绝不允许台湾经济被掏空。

党务方面,蔡志弘指出,在野党赢得两次反罢免投票的主因是“讨厌民进党”,未必代表蓝营基本盘扩充,相反蓝营组织力弱化是不争的事实。因此他若当选,将强化国民党基层组织。

国民党主席将在10月18日进行改选,目前表态有意角逐的,包括立委罗智强、孙文学校总校长张亚中、前彰化县长卓伯源、前立委郑丽文、前国民党副秘书长张雅屏、国民党中央委员孙健萍和彰化县议长谢典林等。

桃林|一篇有深度的饥荒研究报告:1959~1961年中国饥荒的回顾及启示

本文节选自复旦大学经济系教授陈硕先生深度研究有关饥荒问题的报告《1959~1961年中国饥荒的回顾及启示》,原载于《世界经济》2011年第4期,转载仅为学术传播之所需,并向原作者致以崇高的敬意。 ——编者按

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一、内容提要

对于饥荒、疾病、战争(冲突)等灾难的研究日益成为发展经济学、政治经济学以及劳动经济学的重要研究分支。研究的重点包括对灾难本身的描述性推论(descrip-tive inference)和探索灾难成因及潜在影响的因果性推论(causal inference)。基于上述两个方面,学术界对1959~1961年中国饥荒的研究主要从以下三个途径展开:第一,对饥荒导致的非正常死亡人数及分布的估计和描述;第二,对饥荒产生原因的分析;第三,在政治、经济以及社会领域,探索这次饥荒造成的短期及长期影响。

CDT 档案卡
标题:一篇有深度的饥荒研究报告:1959~1961年中国饥荒的回顾及启示
作者:桃林
发表日期:2025.9.1
来源:微信公众号“桃林”
主题归类:三年困难时期
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

二、饥荒发生背景的大跃进运动

大跃进运动一般是指中国第二个五年计划(1958~1962年)的前3年。此前,中国在前苏联的帮助下于1957年完成了第一个五年计划。1955年底,毛泽东主席基于对国际局势的判断认为中国可以加快社会主义改造和国民经济建设(薄一波,1997)。1956年4月发表的《论十大关系》可以视作毛泽东主席关于中国发展道路有别于前苏联模式的系统性表述(L iebertha,l 1995)。中央政府在1958年3月成都会议上第一次提出并在同年5月的中共八大二次会议上正式制定了“鼓足干劲,力争上游,多快好省的建设社会主义”的总路线,该方针具有显著的非计划色彩。在此期间,关于经济指标的制定和农业合作化的进度党内存在思想认识分歧,这一认识分歧反映在“冒进”、“反‘冒进”、“反‘反冒进”等反复过程中,最终以大跃进运动结束。1958年3月以后中央政府计划决策所依靠的重要部门国家统计局的日常工作不能正常进行,基本为高指标的制定服务。

大跃进首先从农村开始,在农村地区推进大规模的农田水利建设。在农业计划指标的制定方面,相对于1957年3700亿斤的粮食产量,1958年的计划产量最初为4316亿斤,该数字在1958年9月份的北戴河会议公报上被修订为6000~7000亿斤,其后在年底的八届六中全会上最终被提高到7500亿斤(薄一波,1997)。在农业合作化领域,建立规模更大的人民公社来取代原先的高级社,以最大限度地动员劳动力从事农田水利和钢铁冶炼;为了增加劳动供给,在农村地区广泛建立公共食堂以此将妇女从家务中解放出来(Chen,2008)。工业方面典型的跃进发生在钢铁等重工业领域,钢铁产量指标也和粮食计划一样被不断地向上修正,1958年《人民日报》元旦社论提出了钢铁和其他重工业品产量要“超英赶美”的口号。

高指标客观上导致传统计划部门通过编制计划、制定预算、实施计划的方式不再适用。在农村地区发动的大炼钢铁运动说明企业无法完成中央北戴河会议上制定的1070万吨钢铁产量的高指标,因为在第一个五年计划中建成并纳入中央计划的城市钢铁厂产量有限:一五期间实现的炼钢能力为281.6万吨,整个一五期间产钢1656万吨,其中1957年产钢535万吨(余扬斌,2009)。当时“毛主席感到计划有完不成的危险,决定大搞群众运动,实行书记挂帅,全党全民办钢铁”(薄一波,1997)。

综上所述,建国初期的党政不分或者以党代政使得党会较多地依靠发动群众运动的方式进行国家建设,而较少地受到来自实际情况如预算、资本、劳动力等的限制,从而在大跃进期间出现了许多不合实际的高指标以及“浮夸风”。

三、饥荒中的非正常死亡人口及分布特征

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1954~1966年中国人口死亡率

数据来源: 5全国各省市、自治区、直辖市历史统计资料汇编 ( 1949~ 1989) 6 ( 1990), 中国统计出版社。

就全国范围内,饥荒的迹象在1959年开始出现,该年的死亡率为14.59‰,比1955~1957年平均死亡率(11.49‰)高3.10‰。饥荒在1960年最严重,死亡率在这一年达到了25.43‰。1961年以后死亡率开始下降,1962年死亡率已接近正常年份的水平。于这次饥荒中非正常人口损失,学者根据不同的资料来源和统计技术进行估计,结论存在巨大差异。蒋正华与李南(1988、1996)对于非正常死亡人数的估计为1700万人,此估计值一般被学界认为是实际人口损失的下限;其他具有代表性的估计数字有:Peng(1987)为2300万,Coale(1981)为2700万,Ashton等(1984)为2950万,曹树基(2005,a、b)为3246万。

image

表1:分地区人口净损失

说明: 作者以 1957年作为基期并结合 1955~ 1957 年平均人口自然增长率计算得到的 1961年全国应有人口数为 68902万人, 则非正常人口净损失为 3860万人。最后一列中的负数表示这段时间该省人口在增长。

数据来源: 全国各省市、自治区、直辖市历史统计资料汇编 ( 1949- 1989)   ( 1990), 中国统计出版社

这次饥荒的特点是其分布具有明显的地区差别,表1描述了中国各省份的非正常人口净损失,根据该表估计的人口净损失区间的下限是2400万,上限是3860万人。从绝对数来看,四川省在饥荒期间人口净损失数为1150万人,占全国人口总损失的38.34%。从比率上来看,受饥荒打击最严重的省份是安徽,该省1960年非正常死亡率为56.87‰(安徽省1955~1957年年平均死亡率是11.73‰,1960年死亡率是68.60‰)。而位于中国东北部的重工业省份辽宁,1960年非正常死亡率是2.23‰,仅为前者的1/25。就城乡差异看,现有文献一般认为非正常死亡主要集中在农村地区(Lin and Yang,2000;Kung and Lin,2003)。以饥荒最为严重的1960年为例,农村地区非正常死亡率为28‰,而城市仅为13.73‰。从表1可以发现当时的三个直辖市北京、上海和天津基本没有非正常死亡记录。三个直辖市在饥荒期间的平均死亡率是7.13‰,而正常年份的平均死亡率是6.96‰。人口损失的不同地区分布为后续探索饥荒成因的研究提供了地区差异。

四、饥荒的定义及成因

(一)关于饥荒成因的两种一般性理论

在阿马蒂亚-森之前,人类对饥荒的认识仍停留在马尔萨斯阶段。该观点认为非西方国家,特别是中国,控制人口增长的机制主要通过现实性抑制(positive check):当粮食生产无法跟上人口膨胀的速度或由于天气、生物灾害而减产时,战争和饥荒就成为对人口抑制的典型表现(Malthu1798)。粮食的整体供应是该理论考察的重点,该理论认为粮食供应的突然下降将导致饥荒。饥荒因此被定义为“极端的、广泛的食物匮乏”(Ravallion,1997)。上述理论被称之为“食物供应量下降”(以下简称FAD理论)。

森(Sen,1981)在考察一系列饥荒案例后,发现饥荒在粮食总产量没有显著下降的情况下照样会发生,这种情况在1974年的孟加拉饥荒中尤其显著。森因此认为饥荒并不是单纯的粮食供应不足,粮食不足甚至可能不是饥荒发生的原因。在他看来,社会中某个职业(阶层)的人们在市场化条件下失去或者被剥夺了获得粮食的“交换权利(exchange entitlement)”才是导致饥荒发生的原因。森的观点一般被称为“权利理论(entitlement approach)”。这种理论对饥荒的定义是“大范围的、非正常的、威胁生命的饥饿”(Ravallion,1997)。显而易见,相对于传统定义,该定义的适用范围要更广,因为它没有将粮食产量的下降作为饥荒发生的必要条件。

上述两种理论的侧重点不同,但这并不意味着它们之间彼此对立。首先,传统FAD理论为“权利”理论奠定了研究基础。比如,中国1959~1961年饥荒和前苏联1932~1933年饥荒都源于之前激进集体化运动,这些运动均导致了粮食产量的显著下降(Massmio,1993)。而Lin(1993)和Massmio(1993)关于激进集体化运动导致的粮食减产的发现启发了众多后续研究,其中包括运用“权利”理论来解释饥荒的发生。其次,虽然有些饥荒最初确实来自粮食减产,但由于饥荒影响在人口中并不是均匀分布,出现了人口中的一部分群体受到的打击相对特别大。因此为什么正常的粮食减产(波动)会引起大规模的“权利失败(entitlement failure)”,进而导致饥荒?这个问题引起学者们的注意同时也具有鲜明的政策含义:在饥荒发生过程中政府的再分配措施也许有助于减缓饥荒的影响。

传统的FAD理论将考察的重点放在粮食总量的变化及变化的原因上,而“权利”观点更加侧重粮食在分配过程中出现的问题并试图识别饥荒在不同群体中的分布。因此检验这两种理论的方法就比较明确:前者只需要考察粮食是否出现突然下降,而证伪后者直接的方法是观察遭受饥荒打击的人群是否存在职业(阶层)分布。

按照非正常死亡率计算,1960年是中国饥荒最严重的一年。就当时的粮食生产而言,1958和1959年粮食总产量的两年移动均值为142.44亿斤,人均粮食移动均值为581.97斤。该数量折成热量后大约为人均每天2710千卡,略高于联合国粮食及农业组织建议的每日最低摄入热量(1900~2400千卡)(FAO,2008)。这意味着粮食如果能在领土境内按人口平均分配,饥荒可能可以避免。此外,FAD对于中国这次饥荒的有限解释力还表现在饥荒结束后的1962年人均粮食移动均值为465.35斤,反而低于3年饥荒时期的均值471.78斤。以上证据都表明粮食减产可能是人口非正常损失的原因之一,但不是全部。就非正常人口损失的分布来说,现有研究均认为饥荒主要集中在农村地区。

在下面两个部分,我们将从这两个理论入手综述关于这次饥荒的相关研究。应该注意到,前一个理论的重点是寻找粮食减产的原因,而后者则着力分析影响城乡及分地区死亡率分布的因素。

(二)关于FAD理论的相关文献

饥荒在粮食没有恢复到灾前水平的情况下就已经结束,这在一定程度上归结为灾后政府相对公平的分配及福利政策。然而粮食总产量在1959年以后的显著下降仍然是一个不争的事实:该年的粮食产量为17000万吨,较上年下降15%,1960年的产量又在这个基础上减产16%。Lin(1990)、Li和Yang(2005)的研究旨在发现导致粮食产量下降的因素。此外,粮食的过量消费同样会降低库存,Yang(1996)、Chang和Wen(1997)因此考察了大跃进期间在农村地区普遍建立的食堂制度对死亡率的影响。

Lin是第一位采用经济学观点研究中国饥荒的学者。Lin(1990)解释了生产效率在农业合作化以后降低的原因。Lin在该文中检视了3个传统的饥荒成因:(1)连续3年的坏天气(饥荒前后由天气导致的全国受灾情况见图2);(2)公社管理失败;(3)过大的集体组织规模导致激励问题;他指出集体化和低效率并不必然存在因果关系,真正导致效率损失的因素是1958年秋天农民退社权的丧失;该权利的丧失意味着对于那些偷懒的社员,其他公社成员无法选择退社来保证自己的劳动成果不被侵蚀。作为理性的回应,他们只能降低劳动投入以避免损失,最终导致了1958年以后粮食产量的下降以及此后整个集体化期间农业劳动生产率的徘徊不前。

对于退出权丧失是否真正是农业生产下滑的原因,文献中存在争论。Kung(1993)质疑退出权是否真正导致了减产,他的理由有两点:第一,按照Lin的逻辑,在1958年秋之前由于社员之间可以用退出权互相制约,因此该阶段对监督的要求并不高。Kung认为该理论的预期与事实不符:可以选择退出高级社时,高级社实行的却是要求有更高监督水平的计件工资(piece rate),而之后恰恰采用了容易施行的计时工资(tmie rate)。第二,虽然1958年秋天之前农民有权利选择退出高级社,即制度没有发生变化,但这仅仅是名义上的,真正退社的成本极其高昂,农民在事实上并没有选择制度的权利。因此,在Kung看来,退出权在1958年前后没有实质性变化,因而不能用来解释此期间的生产率差异。

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1956~ 1966年全国受灾面积比重 (% )

数据来源: 51949- 1995 中国自然灾害报告6 ( 1995) , 中国统计出版社;1949- 1988四十年水利建设成就6 ( 1989), 水利部计划司。

Li和Yang(2005)的研究对粮食减产做了系统性考察。他们首先建立一个关于计划经济的动态模型,描述了急于加快发展步伐的中央计划官员试图通过农业集体化更快地获取农业资源。而这些措施不可避免地造成农业生产滑坡。结合搜集的天气描述以及劳动力征调的数据并运用1952~1977年的省级面板数据,该文发现对农村的资源汲取可能是导致饥荒的最重要因素,该变量可以解释33%的粮食减产;对农村地区的高征购是第二大影响因素,可解释28.3%的减产;而坏天气仅仅解释了12.9%。Li和Yang最终认为发生在20世纪50年代末的农业灾情应当归咎于国民经济完全依赖于中央计划的风险。虽然作者给出了令人信服的证据分解出农业产量下滑的原因,但是将农业产量下滑归咎于计划经济的失败却值得我们再思考。结合本文第二章节的论述,大跃进运动正是中国最高领导人试图绕开传统的苏联中央计划模式转而依靠发动群众来实施国家建设的一次努力。建立自我管理的人民公社制度、冲击统计局以及全民大炼钢铁这些事件都足以说明计划官员在那段时间遭受严重冲击甚至“靠边站”。我们还需注意到的事实是,建国后到1978年以前中国都处于中央计划时代,为什么只有那段时间出现农业灾难?以上这些证据均说明,将饥荒的责任笼统的归咎于中央计划至少与大跃进期间的历史事实不相符合。

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表2:大跃进期间基层食堂运行情况

说明: 从 1958年 7月到 12月, 24个省份的地方党报共有 120条关于食堂的新闻报道。

数据来源: 香港科技大学社 会科学部 Kung,Kai- sa ,i James提供的数据,

以上文献考察了粮食减产的原因。就粮食的消费来说,对大跃进期间在农村普遍建立的粮食消费组织——公共食堂是否是导致饥荒发生的原因,学界并没有得到一致的观点。由于食堂中的食物消费至少在口号和政策层面是“敞开吃饭”,因此该现象为检验Hardin(1968)提出的“公地悲剧”著名假设提供了机会。Yang(1996)利用各省参加食堂的人口比重检验了食堂和死亡率之间的关系,他发现食堂显著地增加了死亡率。此外,Chang和Wen(1997)是第一篇系统考察食堂在饥荒中作用的经济学文献。作者估算的结果是,截至1958年秋天,在全国范围内大约建立了265万个食堂,到10月底,有70%~90%的农业人口已经加入食堂。非理性的食物消费使得在短短20天内就消耗完半年的粮食储备,结果在秋季丰收之前没有足够的粮食维持生存(Potter and Potte1990)。采用和Yang类似的定量分析,Chang和Wen也认为食堂的建立显著地导致了非正常死亡。作者最终的结论是食堂应该为人口损失负最重要的责任。针对上述结论,我们有理由怀疑统计上的显著是否是事实上的因果关系。这意味着我们需要知道名义的消费政策是否在实际中被不打折扣地执行,如果基层并没有按照口号提出的“敞开吃”,食堂对死亡率的贡献就会被高估。上述文献提供的定量证据是关于加入食堂的人口比重,而构造模型的前提则是加入食堂的农民均“敞开吃饭”,因此检验食堂作用更为重要的信息是食堂实际的运行情况。对于食堂的实地考察并结合当时各地报纸的报道,我们发现该政策在地方并不是被无折扣地执行:从当时各地报纸记录的情况看,从1958年7月到12月,24个省地方党报上共有120条关于食堂的新闻。从这些新闻的内容上看,仅有22%是无限额消费的,而有限额消费分为3种类型:按人口(占食堂总数的43.33%)、按家庭(占总数的8.33%)以及按粮票(占总数的25.83%)(数据描述及来源见表2)。此外,即使是无限额的消费也仅仅限于家庭的主要劳动力,同时,也仅在农忙时间才被允许。

(三)关于“权利”理论的相关文献

森将研究设定在市场机制下,而中国的这次饥荒发生在计划经济主导时期,在饥荒中城乡间死亡率差异巨大,那么当时的中国农民是否和森研究中那些受饥荒打击的职业(阶层)成员有相似的特点?

中国在计划经济初期,为了保证工业化的实施,一方面,政府需要保证城镇居民(多数为工人和事业单位成员)的生活必需,因此建立了严格的户籍制度,限制城乡人口流动,保证城镇居民的福利不被进城移民消散;另一方面,建立连接城乡的统购统销制度,以低于市场的价格从农村获得工业生产的原材料。因此,相对于城市居民,农民粮食的获得不能得到制度性保证,尤其在特定情况下,农民负担就会被过度增加。围绕上述逻辑,以下介绍的文献主要以“权利”理论解释饥荒成因。Lin和Yang(2000)第一次对“权利”理论和FAD理论在中国饥荒课题上的适用情况进行检验。他们发现一个省份城市居民比重越多,该省农村居民的负担就越大,饥荒期间的死亡率就越高。Kung和Lin(2003)在此基础上用超额征收率更加准确地测量了城市偏向政策。Kung和Chen(2011)的进一步研究将重点放在解释导致超额征收率跨省差异的因素方面。以上研究均采用省级数据来解释这些差异。

Lin和Yang(2000)采用一个省中城市人口比重作为当时“城市偏向政策”的代理变量,用人均粮食作为传统FAD的代理变量。在控制了省及年固定效用之后,他们发现两个因素在正常年份对死亡率都没有显著影响,但在饥荒期间这两个变量都显著地增加了死亡率。该研究中最重要的解释变量“城市人口比重”并不是“城市偏向”的直接测量指标,而仅仅作为代理变量进入方程。因此在其后的研究中,Kung和Lin(2003)进一步用“超额征收率”作为城市向农村汲取资源程度的直接测量来检验政治激进程度对死亡率的影响。同时他们也将现有文献中考察过的因素如食堂、政治环境等纳入考察范围,以求对这些因素进行系统性检验。他们发现大跃进期间激进的政治氛围对非正常死亡有显著的增加作用。该文同时发现在控制该变量以后食堂变量失去了显著性,该文认为粮食在食堂中的配额消费是造成食堂不发挥作用的原因。

在上述研究的基础上,范子英与孟令杰(2006)从缺粮区的划分来解释饥荒的分省分布。从“权利”理论角度,他们将研究样本分为城市、传统产粮区以及缺粮区并认为在饥荒中传统缺粮区因为可以获得粮食返销反而灾情较轻。该结论被Meng等(2010)的发现进一步证实。

以上研究均注意到死亡率在各省间的差异,并采用不同的测量方法寻找造成该差异的原因。这些研究检验了森的饥荒理论对中国的适用情况。作为研究的被解释变量,这些研究都没有区分死亡率和非正常死亡率,忽视了两者的差异使得观察值具有异质性的风险从而降低了估计的效率。同时,现有证据发现当时的领导机构对下面发生的灾情并不是无动于衷,他们会相应地调整政策并收敛激进的程度(周飞舟,2003)。因此,政策或者激进程度和饥荒严重程度之间的因果关系会同时受到遗漏变量和联立内生性问题的影响,进而影响系数估计的一致性。

政治激进变量在Kung和Lin(2003)的研究中被当做死亡率的解释变量。作为大跃进运动期间的典型特征:激进的政治氛围,长期以来一直是政治学及历史学文献关注的重点。早期研究集中在路线分歧上,比如Chang(1975)和MacFarquhar(1974)提出的“两条路线”观点。

Bachman(1991)运用“新制度主义”的分析架构研究官员集团不同的部门利益,特别是“计划和重工业部门”与“金融部门”之间的利益差别,一些部门对于自身部门利益的诉求推动了大跃进政策的实施。由于缺乏直接的证据,以上研究更多的是基于观察建立起来的分析框架而非严谨的因果推论。同时,从因果识别角度来说,上述基于中央层面的研究无法解释各个省份在推行激进政策时表现出来的巨大差异。

有些文献注意到个别地方政府在大跃进期间的活跃表现,但这些研究更多的是将其归咎为该省领导人的激进性格及行为。例如Yang(1996)、Teiwes和Sun(1998)认为:不同的省领导人的确影响了该省的激进政策。Chen(2011)比较了饥荒期间的安徽和江西两省,他将这两个省份在饥荒期间的显著差别部分地归结到两省最高领导人的差别上。这些研究提供的丰富史实加深了我们对当时情况的理解,但将所有激进行为都归结为领导人的性格或者信仰无疑不是事情的全部。更为重要的是,此类研究无法就全国范围内各省的激进程度差异做出系统性解释。

Kung和Chen(2011)采用“超额净征收率”作为政治激进程度的代理变量,进一步探索政治激进在省与省之间差异的系统性成因。他们认为省委领导的激进行为源于体制内蕴含的激励机制:在其他变量被控制的情况下,作为中央委员会候补委员的省委书记相对于正式委员的省委书记更有动力通过推行激进政策谋求晋升。作为对政治学及历史学文献对个人角色重视的回应,该文采用个人虚拟变量控制住各个省份领导人时间不变的因素发现前述结论依然没有改变,这些因素可以被认为是性格、信仰及意识形态等。利用来自中国大跃进的历史数据,Kung和Chen的研究第一次指出基于理性的职业晋升激励同样是激进行为的重要原因。需要特别指出,该激励机制在改革开放之后的中国同样存在,只不过晋升的考核指标由大跃进期间的征收率转到了可以使“多数人受益(all-encompassing)”的经济增长(McGuire and Olson,1996)。该文的发现对理解改革开放之后的经济增长非常重要,并在更深层次指出为什么同样的政治集权加经济分权的制度设置(regionally decentralized authoritarianism,Xu and Sun,2009)会出现大相径庭的结果。

在数据方面,该文发掘并采用了很多新的数据来降低测量误差。比如,该文第一次考虑到返销粮的数量,从而降低了由于反向因果导致的内生性问题。该文采用受灾比率来测量饥荒程度。此外,该文应用一系列变量如右派数量、农业“高产卫星”的数量、参加食堂的人口比率及农业集体化进度来系统测量分地区的政治激进程度(见表3)。

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表3:分省激进指标

说明: 样本中没有包括当时的三个直辖市及新疆维吾尔自治区。如需引用本表所涉及的数据,务必同时注明原始出处及本文。

数据来源: 由本文作者根据相关文献整理。/ 农业高产卫星0数据摘自5人民日报6 1958年 6月~ 1960年 12月; / 加入食堂人口比重0为 1959年底的数据, 来自5农业合作化重要资料汇编: 1949-1957 (1990)中央党校出版社; / 超额征收率0为 1959~ 1961年平均数字, 来自5农业经济资料: 1949- 19836 ( 1983)农牧渔业部计划司; / 右派0数据来自/ 关于右派分子摘帽子的工作报告0 ( 1959), 中共中央组织部统战部; 农业合作社进度反映的是 1956年夏天的情况, 数据来自 Chung ( 2000)。

上述关于饥荒原因的文献显示出明显的前后继承性。在早期研究中,文献的关注点主要放在饥荒本身的严重程度上,试图通过地方差异来揭示饥荒的成因。从FAD角度看,文献发现天气、公共食堂造成的粮食浪费、激励问题、退出权丧失以及粮食调出导致的粮食不足等是形成饥荒的因素;从“权利”角度,文献发现的成因有城市偏向制度导致农村居民余粮不足、对农村地区的资源汲取、粮食的过量征购以及大跃进运动期间激进的政治氛围导致粮食减产也加剧了分配不公。对上述研究的总结性描述见表4。

随后的研究则进一步探索作为前述研究解释变量的政治激进所产生的原因。以上研究均采用省级作为分析单位,他们的发现有助于我们理解省与省之间饥荒和激进程度的差异。已有研究也发现省以下的死亡率差异同样显著,例如同处于河南省且彼此相邻的两县,饥荒期间的死亡率差别达10倍以上(曹树基与廖礼莹,2010)。以上基于省级的研究无法解释这种省内差异。针对这种差异,Bernstein(1984)开创性的研究论述了粮食统购和饥荒之间的关系,他发现基层生产队干部的农民身份使得他们在执行有关政策时往往偏袒农民。在更大范围内,如果这种干部特质具有地区差异,无疑有助于我们理解饥荒或者激进在基层出现差异的原因。

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表4:现有研究关于饥荒成因的观点

五、饥荒的长期影响

(一)对政治及经济制度方面的影响

现有文献主要从政治、经济制度以及人口方面入手探索这次饥荒造成的长期影响。Yang和Su(1998)将饥荒和1978年之后的农村制度变革联系在一起。首先,饥荒促使国家领导人将1958年建立起来的大公社制度改变为“三级所有结构,生产队为基础”的组织,农民的自留地、自由市场被默许。其次,在毛泽东主席逝世之后,中央领导人对农村政策的分歧,为农村基层进行制度尝试提供了空间和机会。最后,饥荒造成的巨大灾难,使得农民和干部逐渐认识到大而全的公社制度内在的弊端。对制度偏好的转移导致中国农民最终在20世纪70年代末自下而上地放弃人民公社制度并建立起家庭联产承包责任制。Yang(1996)发现那些遭受饥荒打击最严重的省份也是最早推进制度改革的省份。

Kung和Bai(2010)用更加系统的数据检验了饥荒对经济制度的影响。他们发现,促成公社化运动的理由是更有效率地动员农民从事农田水利建设以抵御自然灾害。但是他们同样观察到1978年去集体化的直接原因却是安徽省严重的旱灾。为什么同样的自然灾害导致了截然相反的制度选择?该文和Yang(1996)一样,发现那些饥荒越严重的省份开展去集体化运动越早。同时,饥荒对制度变化的影响又随着去集体化时期的天气条件的变差而加大。天气状况越差,农民对利用人民公社抵御自然灾害的信心就越不足,进而越推动去集体化过程。该文的着眼点并不单纯是饥荒研究,而是一个更具一般性且更重要的问题:制度是如何产生及变迁的?该文认为各个省份当年不同的饥荒严重程度可以用来解释后来的制度变化。

Yang(1996)、Yang和Su(1998)及Kung和Bai(2010)的研究揭示出上世纪70年代末发生在中国农村地区的制度转变并不是一个突然和孤立的事件,其中孕育的逻辑发轫于60年代初并且是一个不断累积经验的过程,大跃进运动和对灾后的反思为后来的制度突破提供了内在的激励和推动力。

(二)对人口方面的影响

利用饥荒检验灾害对人口的长期影响,严格意义上应当不被视作饥荒研究。该领域内学者的注意力是劳动经济学关注的传统研究问题,而非饥荒发生的原因、分布的地理特征等。在这些研究中饥荒仅仅被视作一个外生冲击。由于该问题已经吸引了很多学者的注意同时也积累了相当数量的研究,因此本文在此简要介绍这方面的最新文献。此外,本部分涉及的论文大都为工作论文,它们基本上代表了当代劳动经济学利用饥荒来识别特定因果关系的前沿水平。

胎儿或幼儿时期的成长环境对成年之后的影响是医学及劳动经济学长期关注的问题。对该因果关系的识别往往需要外界环境的变化,但是外界环境的变化如果是内生的就会造成估计结果的不一致。饥荒提供了改变环境的外生冲击。饥荒之所以被认为是外生冲击,是因为成长环境的变化来自于饥荒,而造成饥荒的原因则外生于母亲。以上是劳动经济学利用饥荒识别胎儿环境对后续人口结果影响的方法论逻辑(Currie,2007)。由于这次饥荒已经结束了半个多世纪,其提供的时间长度足以检测对人口的长期影响(包括代际影响)。我们首先介绍影响该因果识别的几个一般性问题,然后以此逻辑综述已有文献。我们简要叙述其发现后,再指出它们在处理这些问题时采用的策略。对于那些没有将内容主要放在因果识别上的文献,本文也简单地介绍其关注的问题及得到的结论。

检验中国1959~1961年饥荒在人口方面的长期影响,因果识别上会受以下6个问题影响:(1)反向因果问题,正如Chen和Zhou(2007)所论证,“家庭的生育行为可能会针对饥荒的严重情况做出调整,如果经济条件较好的家庭及时调整生育行为,饥荒对于健康的影响就有可能是虚假的因果关系”。(2)遗漏变量问题,即该因果关系会受到许多不可观测的个体异质性干扰。这就需要在方法上将饥荒的打击作用与个体异质性的作用区分开来。(3)测量偏误问题,如何对饥荒打击的严重程度进行准确测量。(4)人口迁移问题,如果饥荒之后人口有跨地区移动,我们就无法将观察值在饥荒期间受打击的程度和后期的人口结果联系在一起。该问题是第3个问题的具体化。(5)饥荒对人口打击有选择性作用(selection effect):那些最强壮的人幸存概率最高,因此直接用幸存者检验饥荒的打击作用会导致对该作用的低估(估计值是真实值的下限)。(6)由于饥荒很可能是其他事件比如战争的结果,因此需要在统计上将这些事件和饥荒对人口的作用区分开来。

作为第一篇检验中国饥荒影响的经济学经验研究,Chen和Zhou(2007)研究了饥荒对于幸存者身高、劳动力供给和家庭收入的影响。该文发现1955、1957、1959、1960和1962年出生的群体在身高、劳动力供给及家庭收入等方面均存在显著劣势,其中1959、1960和1962年出生的群体劣势最为明显:相对于非饥荒时期出生的群体,饥荒幸存者在身高上要矮3.03厘米。在识别方法上,该文利用饥荒对不同出生群体的打击程度不同的情况,采用双重差分方法(diference indifference,DID)检验饥荒的影响:关键解释变量是标识出生群体的哑变量和1960年省非正常死亡率的乘积。在作者看来,饥荒期间一个省的非正常死亡率可以作为饥荒严重程度的代理变量并具有足够的外生性。针对上文提到影响因果关系的问题(1)和问题(2),作者认为:第一,土改之后地主和富农阶级被消灭,同时在人民公社时期(1958~1962年)农民的私人产权被取消并全部加入公社且失去退出权,这意味着所有家庭在社会经济指标上均是同质的,因此反向因果关系不会对估计结果产生很大影响;第二,采用DID方法,利用外生的非正常死亡率作为衡量饥荒打击程度的代理变量,进而解决遗漏变量问题。

采用2000年中国人口1%抽样调查数据,同样将大饥荒视作自然实验,Almond等(2008)发现饥荒幸存者在识字、劳动及婚姻市场以及财富上均处于劣势。该发现被Brandt等(2008)的研究印证。同时,饥荒增加了生女孩的概率,该作用将会持续两代人:被饥荒直接打击的父母辈和他们的下一代。他们同时利用香港出生率调查数据,比较了香港本地人的孩子和经历过饥荒的内地移民的孩子,发现后者在出生时体重轻而且女孩比重更高。该文的发现和Fung(2009a、b)及Kmi和Fle isher(2010)的研究结论一致。

Girgens等(2011)的研究没有发现饥荒的幸存群体和没有经历饥荒的群体之间在身高上存在显著差异。他们将出现这样的结果归咎于饥荒打击的选择效用(在作者们看来,未来身体较高的孩子在饥荒中生存概率也较高)对饥荒造成的发育迟缓作用(stunting effect)的抵消。因此如果要识别饥荒打击效果,必须控制住饥荒的选择效果。该文认为,决定能否在饥荒中幸存下来的基因因素可以通过遗传转移到下一代人身上,只要控制了孩子的特质就可以消除饥荒的选择效果,从而估计出饥荒的打击效果(该文处理的是上文提到的问题5)。

Meng和Qian(2009)的研究发现相对于没有经历饥荒的群体,那些胎儿或者幼儿时期遭受饥荒打击的群体在身高上要矮2.8厘米,体重轻1.4公斤,教育年限少0.6年。从识别方法上,该文主要针对以下几个问题:第一,饥荒严重程度的测量偏误。如果偏误随机分布,将会导致对饥荒影响的低估。第二,饥荒的影响可能并不随机,饥荒可能更倾向于在粮食产量不高的地区发生。在这种情况下饥荒的影响可能是虚假的,背后真实的作用也许是出生地区繁荣与否对人口结果的影响。为了克服上述两个问题,作者依靠两个比较外生变量,1997年的自然环境和播种面积及不同出生群体上的差异(饥荒期间年龄越小,受影响程度越大)作为饥荒影响程度的工具变量。背后的逻辑来自作者的另一篇论文,在那篇文章中作者发现产粮区遭受饥荒影响最严重(Mengeta.l,2010)。第三,饥荒对幸存者有选择效用,正如上文提到该效用会低估饥荒打击的作用。针对这些问题,作者采用县级水平的饥荒期间出生的群体规模来测量饥荒严重程度。为了克服饥荒对幸存者的选择效用,该文采用分位数分析方法(quantiles analysis)并认为高分位的估计结果较为准确地反映了饥荒的真实影响。①在克服了以上问题之后,他们的结果发现饥荒的选择作用和测量偏误问题会导致OLS估计结果较真实值低估1倍。针对上述问题(4)和问题(6),作者们认为这两个问题没有影响因果结论,在作者看来,发生在中国的这次饥荒对识别灾害影响有两个优势:第一,中国当时严格禁止城乡及其他跨地区移民,相对于其他国家的饥荒,可以比较精确的测量饥荒的影响;第二,这次饥荒是在一个政治比较稳定的背景下发生的,在之前没有发生过战争,因此可以较为独立地将饥荒作用识别出来。该文所用的数据是1990年人口普查数据和1989年中国人健康和营养调查数据。

医学上认为早期营养不良会导致成年后身体肥胖。文献利用这次饥荒来检验该假设。Luo(2006a、b)的发现证实了该假设,他们进一步认为该作用同时具有性别及城乡差异:农村地区的女幸存者患肥胖病的概率要高0.086,但饥荒对城市居民却没有影响。用来自某直辖市的人口及体检数据,Wang和Wang(2010)检验了幼儿时期营养不良对成年后肥胖的影响,作者们也认为该影响存在性别差异:饥荒导致女性变胖、男性变瘦。和其他研究类似,该文也发现饥荒会导致幸存者变矮。此外,Fung(2009a、b)的研究也发现那些遭到饥荒打击的女性身体过胖概率比那些没有遭到打击的女性要高5%,但该作用对男性不明显。Fung认为其中的机制是生物学上的,比如过量饮食、久坐等,而不是个体行为上的。

一些研究重点关注饥荒影响的性别差异问题。Shi(2008)发现女幸存者在教育禀赋和劳动供给上较男性幸存者更具劣势。Mu和Zhang(2011)也发现女性幸存者具有较高的残疾及文盲概率,而男性幸存者的健康状况要好得多,他们将这种原因归咎为男性在饥荒期间的死亡率更高,这意味着针对男性的选择效用更大。

针对幸存者的精神健康问题,Xu和Sun(2009)利用G自治区L市精神病院1971-2001年的病人病例来检验饥荒对于成年患精神分裂症的影响。比较饥荒前后的出生群体,他们发现在母体中经历饥荒的群体比没受饥荒打击的群体患精神分裂症的概率要高2倍。类似的研究还有Song等(2009)。

六、结论性评述:如何避免饥荒的再次发生

学界对1959~1961年中国饥荒的认识随着新数据的发掘而不断深入。上世纪80年代研究的重点集中在对饥荒中人口损失的估计、对死亡率地区及性别分布特征的描述上。随着数据的不断发掘,特别是分省数据的获得,研究从描述性推论拓展到因果推论。最先进入学者研究视野的是利用这次饥荒检验现有理论,研究者试图解释饥荒分省分布的成因。这些研究揭示出这次中国饥荒更大程度上是分配问题而不是粮食供给下降问题,对计划经济时期粮食分配的研究成为学者考察的重点。**他们发现计划经济时期实施的偏向城市的粮食分配政策以及大跃进期间对粮食的过量征购是造成非正常人口损失的主要原因。**后续学者主要考察大跃进期间的激进政策,发现谋求晋升是地方官员推行激进路线的原因。对于饥荒的后续影响来说,这次饥荒被视为一次难得的观察契机。

此外,饥荒至今的50多年的长时段也给学者调查饥荒的人口影响提供机会。越来越多的劳动经济学、医学及人口学文献试图探索饥荒在个体生理状况(身高、体重等)、生活质量及精神健康等方面造成的影响。

受限于各个领域的传统关注点,现有文献主要是利用这次饥荒回答或者检验本领域关心的问题和假设,却没有涉及如何避免饥荒再次发生这个重要问题,该问题应当被视作饥荒研究的直接目标。

阻止饥荒的再次发生不仅涉及对1959~1961年饥荒本身的理解,而且对其思考也要超越事件本身而审思相关的制度设置、政府决策、信息搜集、个体和家庭的消费及储蓄行为以及市场运行等问题。具体来说:

(1)在控制各地区的天气因素及当地政治措施之后,饥荒是如何在地区间蔓延的?当时的制度设置是加剧还是阻止了饥荒的扩大?①这需要我们更加深入的研究中国的粮食储备体系、粮食的横向(省际)与纵向(中央–地方)调拨程序和运输系统以及制度的调整。②(2)如果上述制度可以在正常时期运作,在突发性灾难的重大打击下(如大范围灾害性天气、国际封锁及禁运、局部或全面战争等)能否依然发挥正常功能。(3)就信息搜集处理来说,基层的饥荒信息在传递到上级政府过程中是否存在制度性障碍?①各地上报的粮仓存粮量是否反映真实数字?如何准确识别粮价的非正常高企?如何对人口中不同人群的营养不良水平及对由饥荒导致的人口流动进行准确估计和跟踪?现有研究已经发现单纯增加粮食总供应,比如动用储备粮、增加粮食进口等并不能快速地阻止饥荒的发展(Bowbrick,1986),因此,有针对地发放救济可以显著缓解饥荒。(4)就个人及社会层面来说,家庭在面临饥荒威胁时如何调整当期消费水平以及是否选择迁移(所谓的“用脚投票”机制)需要我们思考。②(5)由于1959~1961年的饥荒发生在计划经济时期,从饥荒中积累的经验是否同样适用于当前的市场经济条件值得我们考虑。③从这个意义上,针对发生在其他市场化国家的饥荒开展比较性研究将是一个有益的工作。

最后,就世界范围看,由于国际救援机构的建立以及国际协调机能的提升,饥荒发生的概率将越来越少。学界对饥荒的研究也逐渐转向另外一种更加隐蔽但是危害性更大的福利损失形态———饥饿上来。然而毋庸置疑,中国1959~1961年的饥荒为学术界提供一个难得机会来考察中国政治、制度和人口变迁。其中蕴含丰富的政治经济和社会内涵,也将启发学者进一步的研究。通过考察这次饥荒,深刻理解饥荒的发生扩散机制及相关制度的设置也有助于预防及阻止饥荒再次发生,这具有重要的现实意义。

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蛙蛙和洼|“别再欺负我们了”,印尼正在发生什么

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八月底的一个夜晚,21岁的网约摩的司机阿凡・库尼亚万,像往常一样奔波在雅加达的街头。

他的手机里,新的外卖订单提示音不断响起,那是他生活的希望,也是沉重的压力。

这个夜晚,他不知道,自己即将被卷入一场改变许多人命运,也让整个国家震荡的漩涡之中。

彼时,雅加达的街头已弥漫着不安的气息。

民众们对国会批准的议员高额住房补贴一事极为愤怒,这笔高达每月 3075 美元的补贴,是:

雅加达底层劳动者10个月的收入,

贫困地区民众 20 个月的收入。

CDT 档案卡
标题:“别再欺负我们了”,印尼正在发生什么
作者:树蛙蛙
发表日期:2025.9.1
来源:微信公众号“蛙蛙和洼”
主题归类:民众抗议
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

在物价飞涨、税收增加、失业率攀升的艰难时刻,议员们的贪婪之举,如同在民众的怒火上浇了一桶油。

抗议的声浪从各个角落涌起,民众高呼着削减议员工资,指责这些:

腐败的精英。

库尼亚万在送餐途中,正好碰上了防暴警察驱散抗议人群。

混乱中,一辆装甲警车径直冲向了他。

瞬间,他的身体被撞倒,车轮无情地从他身上辗轧过去,生命在那一刻戛然而止。

而他,不过是这个庞大国家中,为了生活苦苦挣扎的无数普通人中的一个。

他每日风里来雨里去,靠着送外卖和开摩的,勉强维持生计,却未曾想,会以这样惨烈的方式,成为了这场社会风暴的牺牲品。

他的死亡视频在社交媒体上迅速传播,如同点燃了火药桶,抗议瞬间升级为暴乱。

全国的愤怒被彻底激起。

在印尼,贫富差距犹如一道巨大的鸿沟,横亘在社会中间。

非政府组织乐施会曾发布报告称:

印尼4个最富有者的总身家,超过了该国最贫困的1亿人口的财富。

印尼长期位列世界上贫富不均最严重的国家前列。

雅加达的街头,一边是高耸入云的豪华写字楼和富人居住的高档社区,围墙内绿树成荫,安保严密。

而几步之遥,便是密密麻麻的铁皮屋组成的贫民窟。

在贫民窟里,一家人挤在狭小昏暗的房间中,卫生条件恶劣,孩子们在污水横流的街道上玩耍。

这里的居民,大多从事着最低端、最辛苦的工作。

以摩的司机这个群体为例,他们数量众多,是城市中最常见的底层劳动者。

雅加达交通拥堵,摩的成为了很多人短距离出行的选择。这些摩的司机们,每天天不亮就出门,守在各个路口、公交站,等待着客人。

他们皮肤被太阳晒得黝黑,衣服破旧且沾满灰尘。

一单生意可能只有几千印尼盾,除去车辆的油费、损耗,一天辛苦下来,挣到的钱仅够一家人勉强糊口。

遇上雨季,道路湿滑,生意更差,还得冒着生病的风险出车。

而他们,只是众多低收入群体的一个缩影。

工厂里的工人,在闷热嘈杂的环境中:

每天工作十多个小时,工资微薄。

街头的小贩,时刻担心着城管的驱赶,为了几毛钱的利润,和顾客讨价还价。

与之形成鲜明对比的,是印尼的富人们。

雅加达的高档商场里,奢侈品店琳琅满目,富人们开着豪车,穿着名牌,在这里一掷千金。

印尼的富豪们拥有私人飞机、豪华别墅,他们的财富多到让人难以想象。

苏哈托家族在其当政期间,垄断国家资源,中饱私囊,据估计,其家族拥有的财产保守有:

200亿美元,最高可达1000亿美元。

这种贫富的巨大反差,在印尼社会存在已久,像一颗毒瘤,深深侵蚀着社会的公平与稳定。

腐败,一直是笼罩在印尼社会上空的阴霾,难以驱散。

印尼肃贪委员会曾指出,国会议员是导致印尼贪污猖獗的罪魁祸首。

从政府官员到司法系统,腐败现象无处不在。

2024年10月,印尼最高法院退休官员扎洛夫・里卡尔的贪腐案震惊全国。

在他位于雅加达的住宅中,调查人员搜出:

价值9200亿印尼盾(约合4.17亿元人民币)的各币种现金和51公斤黄金。

扎洛夫在2012年至2022年间,以中间人的身份,在多个案件中帮嫌疑人脱罪,收取巨额贿金。

这起案件只是冰山一角。

此前,印尼中央银行前高级副总裁米兰达为了在央行竞选副总裁时胜出,贿赂多名议员。

司法系统的腐败,让民众对法律的公正丧失信心。

就拿罗纳德・坦努尔的案件来说,2023 年 10 月,罗纳德在俱乐部停车场开车撞死了女友,监控视频清晰地记录了这一过程。

然而,经过半年多的审理,泗水地方法院却认定罗纳德:

无罪。

法官们称其女友死于饮酒过量,罗纳德还为其提供了救助。

判决结果一出,舆论哗然。

在民众的压力下,印尼肃贪委员会展开调查,最终牵出了背后的腐败链条,包括多名法官受贿,而扎洛夫正是帮助这些法官受贿的:

中间人。

这样的案例,让民众看到的是有钱有势者可以轻易逃脱法律制裁,而普通民众哪怕遭遇不公,也投诉无门。

根据相关机构近年发布的清廉指数排名,印尼在全球180个国家和地区中排第115位,清廉分数仅34分(满分为100分),属于腐败问题最严重的国家之一。

印尼前总统佐科也曾无奈表示,因贪腐而入狱的印尼官员太多了,但腐败却并未停止,且变得越来越复杂。

库尼亚万的死,成为了点燃民众怒火的最后一根火柴。

2025年8月29日清晨,五千辆摩托车包围了雅加达警察总部。

那密密麻麻的摩托车队,像是一股黑色的洪流,宣泄着民众的愤怒。

学生们也纷纷加入游行队伍,他们举着标语,喊着口号,要求政府给一个说法,要求社会:

公平正义。

随着时间推移,示威规模迅速膨胀至:

数万人。

部分示威者开始失去理智,他们破坏交通标志和基础设施,城市的交通陷入瘫痪。

抗议活动不再局限于雅加达,迅速蔓延至梭罗、三宝垄、万隆、茂物、日惹、泗水和望加锡等城市。

在望加锡,一座议会大楼被纵火,造成至少 3 人死亡、多人受伤。

在雅加达周边地区,财政部长穆丽亚妮的住所遭强行闯入。

抗议行动逐渐演变为大规模的纵火、冲击与抢掠,整个印尼社会秩序严重恶化。

印尼总统普拉博沃在第一时间做出了反应。

他亲赴库尼亚万的灵堂吊唁,试图安抚民众的情绪。

国会议长布安也代表国会公开致歉与哀悼,7名涉事警员被拘留调查。

印尼政府宣布取消议员的多项福利和特权,试图平息民愤。

但这些措施,似乎未能完全浇灭民众心中的怒火。

抗议活动仍在继续,民众不仅要求严惩涉事警察,更要求政府从根本上解决贫富差距、腐败等深层次问题。

在这场社会动荡中,普通民众的生活受到了极大的影响。

商店关门,工厂停工,经济陷入停滞。那些原本就生活在贫困边缘的人们,生计更加艰难。

而对于印尼这个国家而言,其国际形象受损,外国投资者对印尼的信心也受到了冲击。

雅加达的街头,抗议的痕迹依然清晰可见。

被焚毁的公交车站,街头散落的碎裂玻璃与被烧毁的车辆,警察局外墙那焦黑的痕迹,时刻提醒着人们这里刚刚经历的风暴。

贫富差距的不断拉大,会让社会矛盾日益尖锐,最终可能引发社会的不稳定。

我们关注印尼正在发生的事情,也是在审视发展过程中可能遇到的问题,从中汲取经验与教训,避免重蹈覆辙。

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