The Bank of England is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if the job market shows signs of slowing down, its governor has said.

In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey said "I really do believe the path is downward" on interest rates.

Interest rates currently stand at 4.25% and will be reviewed at the Bank's next meeting on 7 August.

They affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people.

In the Times interview, Bailey said there were consistent signs that businesses are "adjusting employment and hours" and are giving smaller pay rises following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeve's move to increase employers' national insurance contributions.

Reeves raised national insurance rates for employers from 13.8% to 15% in April this year, in a move the government estimated would generate £25bn a year.

Bailey said the UK's economy was growing behind its potential, opening up "slack" that would help to bring down ­inflation.

"I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward," the governor said.

"But we continue to use the words 'gradual and careful' because... some people say to me 'why are you cutting when inflation's above target?"'

Interest rates were held at 4.25% during the Bank's last meeting in June, following two cuts earlier in the year.

During that meeting, Bailey also said interest rates would take a "gradual downward path".

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, after also shrinking in April, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The unexpected dip was mainly driven by a drop in manufacturing, while retail sales were also "very weak", said the Office.

The UK's performance adds pressure on the government, which has made boosting economic growth a key priority.

Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".

Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".

"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.

Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.

But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?

And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.

As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.

A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle

Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.

This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.

Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.

Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.

Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.

Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.

The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.

Orban's tried-and-tested strategy

Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.

In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.

A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.

Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.

After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.

In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"

A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.

The winner takes all

Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.

While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.

He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.

In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".

Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".

How he won over world leaders

Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.

Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.

The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).

Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."

But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.

Are cracks starting to appear?

Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.

He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.

"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.

Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.

Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.

Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.

But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.

Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."

Battle for the soul of Hungary

Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.

"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.

The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.

"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.

In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.

Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.

"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.

Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)

But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".

He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."

As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.

Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty

BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.

French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.

In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.

Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.

Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".

Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.

In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.

"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.

Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".

He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".

Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.

The UK also announced its own defence review, with Defence Secretary John Healey saying it would send a "message to Moscow".

On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".

Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.

An aircraft has crashed at London Southend Airport, police have confirmed.

Essex Police said it was alerted to a 12-metre plane on fire at the site in Southend-on-Sea shortly before 16:00 BST on Sunday.

The East of England Ambulance Service said four crews were at the scene including a rapid response vehicle, a hazardous area response vehicle and a senior paramedic.

The Labour MP for Southend West and Leigh, David Burton-Sampson, said on X: "My thoughts are with everyone involved."

Police said, as a precaution, officers have evacuated the Rochford Hundred Golf Club and Westcliff Rugby Club due to its proximity to the incident.

A spokesperson for Essex Police said: "We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

"We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues."

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said it was called to the incident at 15:58.

The service has asked people to avoid the area if possible.

A spokesperson said: "Crews from Southend (two), Rayleigh Weir and Basildon (two), along with off-road vehicles from Billericay and Chelmsford attended.

"We are continuing to work at the scene with our emergency services and aviation partners."

Hungarians have a popular saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks back." In other words, watch out, because what you enjoy devouring, might enjoy devouring you.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for at least two decades, transforming the country into what he has variously called an "illiberal democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".

Meanwhile he has drawn admirers around the world, including US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has called Orban "smart" and "a tough person".

"One of the most respected men, they call him a strong man," Trump said in September 2024.

Ahead of the next Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ community appear to be among Orban's targets – his Fidesz party rubber stamped a new law that sought to ban Pride from going ahead. And yet between 100,000 and 200,000 people turned out last month - up from just 35,000 last year.

But watching huge crowds march through Budapest to celebrate gay pride, free speech and the right to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many wonder: could the liberal worldview bite back?

And in some ways, that in itself is the wrong question. Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect.

As the real challenge comes not from the liberal left, but the centre right.

A surprise challenger from Orban's own circle

Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old formerly of Orban's own circle, appeared as a surprise challenger in February 2024.

This followed a scandal involving a decision to pardon a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on live television. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) also resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's claim to stand for traditional family values.

Magyar gave a long interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he called the nepotism and corruption of the governing party.

Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a new, non-party initiative called Citizens Resistance, says that Magyar is treading carefully, amid Fidesz officials and certain quarters of the media trying to portray him as a liberal or leftist.

Magyar, he argues, is trying to avoid alienating his conservative base in the countryside, which until recently was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his own powerful narrative – of a Hungary that is collapsing.

Most national polls put Tisza, Hungary's main opposition party led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% ahead of Orban's party. Only one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, still puts Fidesz narrowly ahead.

The parlous state of state hospitals, state schools, and state railways are all being used against Orban by Magyar and his party. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired abroad, is starting to fail at home – and it leaves Hungary closer than ever to ousting a man who has ruled it for the past 15 years.

Orban's tried-and-tested strategy

Orban has been in power for 19 of the 35 years since the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the most experienced leaders in the EU. In the early 1990s, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identity.

In 2015, as scores of people travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as part of "a migratory movement composed of economic migrants, refugees and also foreign fighters". He has opposed military support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and also opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his ability to identify what his voters fear: this was true of each of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.

A public opinion survey by the Publicus agency carried out from 23-25 June found 45% of people were in favour of the Pride march in Budapest and 48% were against. Just 8% of Fidesz voters approved, however, so it was a flag to rally his own camp behind.

Since the march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative images from Budapest Pride, including nudity and the tale of a man arrested by police for masturbating in public.

After the event, folk singer Marianna Majorosi, whose song was performed during a drag queen show at the Pride event, said, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I have no right to prevent someone from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his support for her on Facebook.

In 2022, the government organised a referendum on child protection to coincide with the general election. The questions included: "Do you support allowing children in public schools to participate in sexual orientation classes without parental consent?" And, "do you support the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"

A total of 3.7 million Hungarians took part, with the vast majority voting, "No". Government officials have since cited that referendum result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Pride stands for.

The winner takes all

Another key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban lost power in 2002 then returned to office in 2010, and in a new electoral law of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second round of elections, effectively channelling votes to the strongest party.

While the fractious opposition parties fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The former system of proportional representation was replaced by something closer to the first-past-the-post system, as used in the UK.

He has also appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Court.

In 2014 he said that the "illiberal state" he was constructing "does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism such as freedom… but it does not make this ideology the central element of state organisation".

Orban is still struggling to find the right name for his invention. András Lánczi, a philosopher widely considered a strong influence on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Ideas based on experience rather than the utopias and moralising that leftists like so much".

How he won over world leaders

Orban rules by bullet-points, simple messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his government to find out what is worrying the public. Pro-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.

Some leaders overseas appear to admire his approach, while many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" culture.

The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are also seemingly firm admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Party for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Party).

Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of foreign rule. "This nation has become stronger, and we would like to believe that we are not inferior to any other nations."

But just as he reaches the height of his fame abroad, the carpet is apparently being tugged from under his feet at home.

Are cracks starting to appear?

Peter Magyar has toured the country almost continuously, attacking the government for conditions in hospitals, a failing rail network and public service wages that are among the lowest in Europe.

He draws large crowds, and his visits to hospitals, schools or care homes are broadcast live on Facebook, with many attracting tens of thousands of views.

"We will re-build this country together, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.

Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hollow "messiah", or a traitor from their own ranks. But Magyar has given the public an alternative vision of repairing the homeland.

Orban has himself started to make some mistakes, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion in the recent Romanian presidential election, despite a long history of anti-Hungarian remarks. He considered him to be a useful ally in the European Parliament where he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is under threat. But Simion was the surprise loser of the second round of that election.

Orban's failure to stop Pride, after he promised his supporters it would not take place, also suggests some weakening of his power.

But perhaps most seriously, the Hungarian economy, heavily dependent on the German market, especially German cars manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can no longer deliver an improved standard of living.

Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the next election, says: "Unavoidably, there are so many conflicts during such a long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode trust, erode respect, erode a lot of positive things that unite that political community."

Battle for the soul of Hungary

Defeat for Orban, who has ruled Hungary for the past 15 years, would be monumental.

"Orban is able to mobilise his core electorate, which is about two million people, but it's not enough to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst close to Fidesz.

The Tisza party now also has about two million supporters. More than five million Hungarians voted in the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will likely be decided by those who are currently undecided.

"We are looking for policy issues that can attract these 500,000 to one million more voters who are needed to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly explained.

In 2022, amid the war in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself as the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into war. It was a successful tactic in a country, often overrun in its history by foreign armies. In 2026, Ukraine could help Orban win again, Mr Kiszelly believes.

Yet if the war in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be able to claim credit as the Western leader who warned that Ukraine cannot defeat the might of Russia. Or, if the war continues, Fidesz could step up its campaign against Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party (EPP), which supports continued Western military supplies for Ukraine.

"Orban can present himself, once again, as the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.

Orban also depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a guarantee of cheap Russian gas and oil for Hungarian consumers - constantly under threat from EU sanctions against Russia. (Though Orban has not successfully blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions against Russia so far.)

But his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can maintain their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "sooner or later".

He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There is a path leading to a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there is a despotic path leading to a dictatorship."

As for Orban, he said in March that there was a struggle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see next April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.

Top image credits: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom via Getty

BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.

French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe's liberty is facing a "greater threat" than at any time since the end of World War Two.

In a speech to the armed forces in Paris, he said "we are living in a pivotal moment" due to complex geopolitics.

Macron called for France's defence spending to rise by €3.5bn (£3bn) next year and then by a further €3bn in 2027.

Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced "imperialist policies" and "annexing powers".

Fighting has raged since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Macron pledged to double France's military budget by 2027, three years earlier than originally planned.

In 2017, his country's defence budget stood at €32bn and under the plans would rise to €64bn in two years time. The proposals still need to be approved by the French government.

"To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful," he said in the speech, which fell on the eve of Bastille Day.

Macron said the world was witnessing the return of nuclear power and the "proliferation of major conflicts".

He also referenced the US bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan and what he called the "ups and downs in American support for Ukraine".

Last month, Nato members agreed to commit to spending 5% of GDP annually on defence, up from the previous target of 2%.

The UK also announced its own defence review, with Defence Secretary John Healey saying it would send a "message to Moscow".

On Friday, the head of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said Russia saw France as its "main adversary in Europe".

Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe, Burkhard said, adding that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine.

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline next year's budget on Thursday.

After the thirtieth consecutive month without rain, the townsfolk of San Francisco de Conchos in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua gather to plead for divine intervention.

On the shores of Lake Toronto, the reservoir behind the state's most important dam – called La Boquilla, a priest leads local farmers on horseback and their families in prayer, the stony ground beneath their feet once part of the lakebed before the waters receded to today's critically low levels.

Among those with their heads bowed is Rafael Betance, who has voluntarily monitored La Boquilla for the state water authority for 35 years.

"This should all be underwater," he says, motioning towards the parched expanse of exposed white rocks.

"The last time the dam was full and caused a tiny overflow was 2017," Mr Betance recalls. "Since then, it's decreased year on year.

"We're currently at 26.52 metres below the high-water mark, less than 14% of its capacity."

Little wonder the local community is beseeching the heavens for rain. Still, few expect any let up from the crippling drought and sweltering 42C (107.6F) heat.

Now, a long-running dispute with Texas over the scarce resource is threatening to turn ugly.

Under the terms of a 1944 water-sharing agreement, Mexico must send 430 million cubic metres of water per year from the Rio Grande to the US.

The water is sent via a system of tributary channels into shared dams owned and operated by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees and regulates water-sharing between the two neighbours.

In return, the US sends its own much larger allocation (nearly 1.85 billion cubic metres a year) from the Colorado River to supply the Mexican border cities of Tijuana and Mexicali.

Mexico is in arrears and has failed to keep up with its water deliveries for much of the 21st Century.

Following pressure from Republican lawmakers in Texas, the Trump administration warned Mexico that water could be withheld from the Colorado River unless it fulfils its obligations under the 81-year-old treaty.

In April, on his Truth Social account, US President Donald Trump accused Mexico of "stealing" the water and threatened to keep escalating to "TARIFFS, and maybe even SANCTIONS" until Mexico sends Texas what it owes. Still, he gave no firm deadline by when such retaliation might happen.

For her part, the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, acknowledged Mexico's shortfall but struck a more conciliatory tone.

Since then, Mexico has transferred an initial 75 million cubic metres of water to the US via their shared dam, Amistad, located along the border, but that is just a fraction of the roughly 1.5 billion cubic metres of Mexico's outstanding debt.

Feelings on cross-border water sharing can run dangerously high: in September 2020, two Mexican people were killed in clashes with the National Guard at La Boquilla's sluice gates as farmers tried to stop the water from being redirected.

Amid the acute drought, the prevailing view in Chihuahua is that "you can't take from what isn't there", says local expert Rafael Betance.

But that doesn't help Brian Jones to water his crops.

A fourth-generation farmer in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, for the past three years he has only been able to plant half of his farm because he doesn't have enough irrigation water.

"We've been battling Mexico as they've not been living up to their part of the deal," he says. "All we're asking for is what's rightfully ours under the treaty, nothing extra."

Mr Jones also disputes the extent of the problem in Chihuahua. He believes that in October 2022 the state received more than enough water to share, but released "exactly zero" to the US, accusing his neighbours of "hoarding water and using it to grow crops to compete with us".

Farmers on the Mexican side read the agreement differently. They say it only binds them to send water north when Mexico can satisfy its own needs, and argue that Chihuahua's ongoing drought means there's no excess available.

Beyond the water scarcity, there are also arguments over agricultural efficiency.

Walnut trees and alfalfa are two of the main crops in Chihuahua's Rio Conchos Valley, both of which require a lot of watering – walnut trees need on average 250 litres a day.

Traditionally, Mexican farmers have simply flooded their fields with water from the irrigation channel. Driving around the valley one quickly sees walnut trees sitting in shallow pools, the water flowing in from an open pipe.

The complaint from Texas is obvious: the practice is wasteful and easily avoided with more responsible and sustainable farming methods.

As Jaime Ramirez walks through his walnut groves, the former mayor of San Francisco de Conchos shows me how his modern sprinkler system ensures his walnut trees are properly watered all year round without wasting the precious resource.

"With the sprinklers, we use around 60% less than flooding the fields," he says. The system also means they can water the trees less frequently, which is particularly useful when the Rio Conchos is too low to allow local irrigation.

Mr Ramirez readily admits, though, that some of his neighbours aren't so conscientious. As a former local mayor, he urges understanding.

Some haven't adopted the sprinkler method because of the costs in setting it up, he says. He's tried to show other farmers that it works out cheaper in the long run, saving on energy and water costs.

But farmers in Texas must also understand that their counterparts in Chihuahua are facing an existential threat, Mr Ramirez insists.

"This is a desert region and the rains haven't come. If the rain doesn't come again this year, then next year there simply won't be any agriculture left. All the available water will have to be conserved as drinking water for human beings," he warns.

Many in northern Mexico believe the 1944 water-sharing treaty is no longer fit for purpose. Mr Ramirez thinks it may have been adequate for conditions eight decades ago, but it has failed to adapt with the times or properly account for population growth or the ravages of climate change.

Back across the border, Texan farmer Brian Jones says the agreement has stood the test of time and should still be honoured.

"This treaty was signed when my grandfather was farming. It's been through my grandfather, my father and now me," he says.

"Now we're seeing Mexico not comply. It's very angering to have a farm where I'm only able to plant half the ground because I don't have irrigation water."

Trump's tougher stance has given the local farmers "a pep in our step", he adds.

Meanwhile, the drought hasn't just harmed farming in Chihuahua.

With Lake Toronto's levels so low, Mr Betance says the remaining water in the reservoir is heating up with uncommon speed and creating a potential disaster for the marine life which sustains a once-thriving tourism industry.

The valley's outlook hasn't been this dire, Mr Betance says, in the entire time he's spent carefully recording the lake's ups and downs. "Praying for rain is all we have left," he reflects.

Additional reporting by Angélica Casas.

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South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has placed Police Minister Senzo Mchunu on an immediate "leave of absence" after allegations of links to organised crimes were made against him.

In Sunday's live televised speech to the nation, Ramaphosa also announced a judicial commission would probe the claims, which he said undermined the constitution and threatened national security.

He added that law professor Firoz Cachalia had been appointed as interim police minister.

Mchunu denied any wrongdoing, saying in a statement that he "stood ready to respond to the accusations" against him.

In his speech, the president said that the allegations against Mchunu, which include interference in investigations into political killings and corruption within law enforcement agencies, "call for an urgent and comprehensive investigation".

He said the judicial commission, led by the country's deputy chief justice, would examine all the claims.

The commission will also investigate current and former police officials, as well as members of the national executive, Ramaphosa said.

Ramaphosa has been under growing public pressure to act swiftly over the high-profile case.

Mchunu, 67, is an influential figure in Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) party.

Political analysts have suggested he could run for a leadership position at the ANC's next elective conference in 2027.

In a statement, Mchunu said: "I welcome and respect the president's decision and pledge my commitment to the process.

"Honour and integrity are the virtues I personally subscribe to and which we all need to make efforts to uphold."

The allegations were first made public by KwaZulu-Natal provincial police boss Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi last Sunday.

He claimed Mchunu was receiving financial support from an allegedly corrupt businessman to fund his "political endeavours".

Gen Mkhwanazi also detailed a sequence of events he claimed led to the "orchestrated" disbandment of a task force that was set up in 2018 to investigate the killing of politicians, mainly in KwaZulu-Natal.

He said the team's investigations had uncovered links to high-profile individuals - including politicians, police officials, and businesspeople tied to a drug cartel syndicate - and this is why the team was disbanded.

When he dissolved the unit earlier this year, Mchunu said it was not adding value in the province, despite many cases remaining unsolved.

According to Gen Mkhwanazi, a total of 121 case files were allegedly removed from the unit on the minister's instruction and without the authorisation of his boss, the national police commissioner Gen Fannie Masemola.

"These case dockets have, since March, been sitting at the head office ever since without any investigation work done on them. Five of these dockets already had instructions to [effect] arrests," Gen Mkhwanazi said.

He also alleged Mchunu had ties to a controversial businessman who was "financially supporting" the minister's political career.

Vusimuzi Matlala had a lucrative contract with the police before it was abruptly cancelled when he was arrested for attempted murder in May. Gen Mkhwanazi shared copies of text messages and a payment allegedly made by Mr Matlala to prove this.

Two people have been fatally shot at a church in Kentucky by a gunman who had just shot a police officer nearby, officials said.

Two women, aged 72 and 32, died in Sunday's attack at Richmond Road Baptist Church in Lexington, and two male parishioners were injured, said police.

Investigators believe the suspect, who was shot dead by police, had a connection to individuals at the church.

State police said the wounded trooper was receiving medical treatment. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear offered his condolences on social media, saying "violence like this has no place in our commonwealth or country".

The initial shooting occurred at 11:36 local time (15:36 GMT) on Sunday near the Blue Grass Airport, a regional hub in Fayette County.

A state trooper pulled over the suspect's car on Terminal Drive after receiving a registration plate reader alert, Lexington Police Chief Lawrence Weathers told a news conference.

The suspect shot the trooper, "carjacked a vehicle" as he fled and drove towards the church about 16 miles (25km) away, with law enforcement in pursuit.

Lexington Police said the injured trooper was "in stable condition receiving medical treatment".

"The suspect fired his weapon at individuals on church property," Chief Weathers told media.

"Preliminary information indicates that the suspect may have had a connection to the individuals at the church."

Four people - two males and two females - were shot on church grounds. The women were pronounced dead at the scene.

The two male victims were transported to a local hospital, with one sustaining critical injuries and the other in a stable condition.

An official from the Fayette County coroner's office said the church was small and a "majority" of attendees were either related or close friends.

"It's a very tight-knit group of people at the Richmond Baptist Church," official said.

The incident is being investigated by the Kentucky State Police and the department's Public Integrity Unit, police said.

Donald Trump has formally accepted an invitation from King Charles III to join him and Queen Camilla for an unprecedented second state visit, Buckingham Palace has said.

The US president will be accompanied by his wife, First Lady Melania Trump, for the trip - which is set to take place from 17 to 19 September - and will be hosted at Windsor Castle.

The location for the state visit was chosen as the typical venue, Buckingham Palace, continues to undergo renovations.

Trump was hosted by Queen Elizabeth II for his first state visit in 2019 during his first term in office.

Traditionally, second-term presidents are not offered a state visit and have instead been invited for tea or lunch with the monarch.

A full programme of events has not yet been announced but, like all visits of this kind, it will include a full ceremonial welcome and a state banquet in St George's Hall in Windsor Castle.

All senior members of the Royal Family will be involved, including the Prince and Princess of Wales, who live in the grounds of the castle.

French President Emmanuel Macron was hosted by the King at Windsor last week, marking the first time a state visit had been held in the Berkshire residence for more than a decade.

Macron and his wife, Brigitte, also took part in a carriage procession through the town of Windsor.

Any visit from a US president brings with it security challenges, and Trump's programme is unlikely to include events that are public-facing.

During his 2019 visit, there was no procession along The Mall for security reasons and Trump was mostly flown between locations instead of travelling by road.

It is also unclear whether Trump will have the opportunity to speak to parliamentarians, which is often included in the choreography of a state visit.

The House of Commons will not be sitting at the time of Trump's visit as it will be in recess for party conference season - but the House of Lords will be in session.

In February, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer presented Trump with a letter from the King inviting him for the visit at the White House.

As the pair were sitting next to each other in the Oval Office, Trump said it was a "great, great honour", adding: "And that says at Windsor - that's really something."

The state visit will come several months after the King visited Canada, where he opened the country's parliament to mark the official start of Prime Minister Mark Carney's leadership.

Many Canadians saw the King's two-day visit to Ottawa in May as a symbol of support for the country after Trump imposed tariffs on one of its largest trading partners and threatened to make it the 51st US state.

The lure of a state visit for Trump has the potential to be a powerful tool of soft diplomacy by the British government towards a president who is an ardent monarchist.

Speaking in April, he said: "I'm a friend of Charles, I have great respect for King Charles and the family, William. We have really just a great respect for the family."

The invitation came as Sir Keir sought to influence Trump over the war in Ukraine and lessen the tariffs placed on UK exports to the US - both issues that continue to dominate the so-called special relationship.

The US president is expected to be in Scotland later this month for the opening of his new golf course in Aberdeenshire.

It had initially been thought that the King and Trump would meet informally during that trip.

But it is understood that there were logistical challenges surrounding the dates and there will be no private meeting ahead of his September visit.

An aircraft has crashed at London Southend Airport, police have confirmed.

Essex Police said it was alerted to a 12-metre plane on fire at the site in Southend-on-Sea shortly before 16:00 BST on Sunday.

The East of England Ambulance Service said four crews were at the scene including a rapid response vehicle, a hazardous area response vehicle and a senior paramedic.

The Labour MP for Southend West and Leigh, David Burton-Sampson, said on X: "My thoughts are with everyone involved."

Police said, as a precaution, officers have evacuated the Rochford Hundred Golf Club and Westcliff Rugby Club due to its proximity to the incident.

A spokesperson for Essex Police said: "We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

"We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues."

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said it was called to the incident at 15:58.

The service has asked people to avoid the area if possible.

A spokesperson said: "Crews from Southend (two), Rayleigh Weir and Basildon (two), along with off-road vehicles from Billericay and Chelmsford attended.

"We are continuing to work at the scene with our emergency services and aviation partners."

The UK is breaking heat and rainfall records increasingly frequently as its climate continues to warm, the Met Office has warned.

The country's changing weather patterns mean the UK now experiences a "notably different" climate to what it was just a few decades ago, its State of the UK Climate report says.

We now have many more very hot days and many fewer extremely cold nights, according to this latest assessment.

It shows just how much global warming caused by the vast emissions of greenhouse gases our civilisation creates is reshaping the country's climate.

Climate change is bringing more severe weather events like storms and flooding - and inevitably the country's changing climate is having an impact on the natural world, with some species suffering.

The report focuses on 2024, when the UK experienced its second warmest February, warmest May, warmest spring, fifth warmest December, and fifth warmest winter since records began in 1884.

The Met Office highlights that some of these records have already been surpassed in 2025 - more evidence of this trend towards more extreme weather.

This summer many parts of the country are in the throes of their third heatwave with very warm weather reaching into Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland as well as southern England.

The first hosepipe ban of the year was imposed in Yorkshire last week following England's warmest June on record, which came after the country's driest and sunniest spring for 132 years.

Yorkshire and the north west of England were declared in official drought by the Environment Agency in June. At least one region is expected to be added to the list when the UK's National Drought Group meets on Tuesday.

Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate scientist and lead author of the State of the UK Climate report, said: "Every year that goes by is another upward step on the warming trajectory our climate is on.

"Observations show that our climate in the UK is now notably different to what it was just a few decades ago."

Wetter as well as hotter weather

As an island squeezed between the vast Atlantic Ocean and continental Europe, the UK sits at the intersection of a whole series of major air masses. That's why the country's climate is so changeable and that variability also makes mapping some climate changes more difficult.

Rainfall patterns fluctuate much more than temperature, the Met Office says, but it finds that, as well as warming up, the UK is also getting wetter, with rainfall increasing significantly during the winter. Between October and March, rainfall in 2015-2024 was 16% higher than in 1961–1990, it says.

Behind all these changes is the relentless rise in average temperatures driven by climate change, the Met Office says. Global temperatures have risen by over 1.3C since the industrial revolution as humans continue to release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate.

The Met Office calculates that the UK is warming at a rate of around 0.25C per decade, with the 2015-2024 period 1.24C warmer than the period between 1961-1990.

As the UK's national weather service, the Met Office is the custodian of the Central England Temperature record, the longest running weather record in the world, based on measurements taken using thermometers and other instruments. It spans from 1659 to the present and it shows that recent warming has far exceeded any observed temperatures in over 300 years.

The last three years have been in the UK's top five warmest on record, with 2024 the fourth warmest year in records dating back to 1884.

Even a small shift in temperatures can significantly increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, as the graph below shows.

Look how, as the distribution of temperatures shifts, those that were previously extreme are brought into the range and new extremes become significantly more likely.

We are often talking about how it used to be colder back in the day. Well that is borne out by the Met Office's data. We really are getting increasingly fewer cold days. The Met Office says there were 14 fewer days with air frosts – when the air temperature falls below zero - in the last decade compared to the period 1931 to 1990.

Flood risk growing

As in recent years, floods and storms caused the worst severe weather damage to the UK last year.

A series of named storms that pummelled the UK beginning in the autumn of 2023 helped cause widespread flooding in early January. That contributed to the wettest winter half year – October 2023 to March 2024 - in over 250 years.

Areas particularly badly hit by flooding included eastern Scotland, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and the West Midlands, with some places recording three to four times their usual rainfall for September.

In early January of 2024 the Royal Shakespeare Company had to cancel performances for two evenings in a row because of flooding in Stratford-upon-Avon. In November a wall collapsed in Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire after water in a local brook rose, flooding the town centre.

Met Office Chief Scientist Professor Stephen Belcher said the evidence of the impacts climate change is already bringing showed the urgent need for the UK to adapt to cope with future extremes.

"The climate is likely to continue to change, and we need to prepare for the impacts this will have on the weather we experience," he said.

For the first time this report highlights that UK sea level is rising faster than the global average.

As sea levels continue to rise around the UK, the risk of flooding is only going to increase further, says Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva from the National Oceanography Centre.

"We know from historical events it is only a matter of time until the UK is next in the path of a major storm surge event," she said.

Nature is changing with the climate

Inevitably the UK's changing climate is having an impact on the natural world.

Spring in 2024 was earlier than the average for 12 of the 13 spring events on record and was the earliest in the series from 1999 for both frogspawn appearing and blackbirds nesting.

The timing of seasonal activity in plants and animals is known as phenology and is collected by a network of volunteers coordinated by the Nature's Calendar citizen science project.

The changing pattern of natural events can have a huge impact. Dormice and hedgehogs – two of the UK's most threatened mammals – are particularly affected when the weather is very warm, for example.

Fruits and nuts ripen earlier in hot weather and that means fewer are available in the autumn when these animals are trying to build up the reserves of fat they need to see them through winter.

At the Alice Holt forest research centre outside London they are investigating how our trees and forests can be made more resilient to the country's future climate.

The sad fact is that many of our current tree species just can't cope, says Dr Gail Atkinson, the head of Climate Change Science at the centre.

"After a drought you can see reduced growth, so trees aren't growing as we would expect them to," she says.

"If you look up in the canopy you can see the leaves looking a little bit raggedy and there are other signs of stress as you're walking through the woodland including extreme examples you might find that the trees have actually died."

Studies at Alice Holt show one species that could do well as the UK continues to get hotter and wetter are coastal redwoods from California. It has been growing trees from different latitudes for the last 60 years to see how they fare in the UK climate.

It means that, in the decades to come, the world's tallest trees could become a common sight here in the UK.

Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has placed Police Minister Senzo Mchunu on an immediate "leave of absence" after allegations of links to organised crimes were made against him.

In Sunday's live televised speech to the nation, Ramaphosa also announced a judicial commission would probe the claims, which he said undermined the constitution and threatened national security.

He added that law professor Firoz Cachalia had been appointed as interim police minister.

Mchunu denied any wrongdoing, saying in a statement that he "stood ready to respond to the accusations" against him.

In his speech, the president said that the allegations against Mchunu, which include interference in investigations into political killings and corruption within law enforcement agencies, "call for an urgent and comprehensive investigation".

He said the judicial commission, led by the country's deputy chief justice, would examine all the claims.

The commission will also investigate current and former police officials, as well as members of the national executive, Ramaphosa said.

Ramaphosa has been under growing public pressure to act swiftly over the high-profile case.

Mchunu, 67, is an influential figure in Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) party.

Political analysts have suggested he could run for a leadership position at the ANC's next elective conference in 2027.

In a statement, Mchunu said: "I welcome and respect the president's decision and pledge my commitment to the process.

"Honour and integrity are the virtues I personally subscribe to and which we all need to make efforts to uphold."

The allegations were first made public by KwaZulu-Natal provincial police boss Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi last Sunday.

He claimed Mchunu was receiving financial support from an allegedly corrupt businessman to fund his "political endeavours".

Gen Mkhwanazi also detailed a sequence of events he claimed led to the "orchestrated" disbandment of a task force that was set up in 2018 to investigate the killing of politicians, mainly in KwaZulu-Natal.

He said the team's investigations had uncovered links to high-profile individuals - including politicians, police officials, and businesspeople tied to a drug cartel syndicate - and this is why the team was disbanded.

When he dissolved the unit earlier this year, Mchunu said it was not adding value in the province, despite many cases remaining unsolved.

According to Gen Mkhwanazi, a total of 121 case files were allegedly removed from the unit on the minister's instruction and without the authorisation of his boss, the national police commissioner Gen Fannie Masemola.

"These case dockets have, since March, been sitting at the head office ever since without any investigation work done on them. Five of these dockets already had instructions to [effect] arrests," Gen Mkhwanazi said.

He also alleged Mchunu had ties to a controversial businessman who was "financially supporting" the minister's political career.

Vusimuzi Matlala had a lucrative contract with the police before it was abruptly cancelled when he was arrested for attempted murder in May. Gen Mkhwanazi shared copies of text messages and a payment allegedly made by Mr Matlala to prove this.

Drake's three-day residency at London's Wireless Festival concluded on a sour note after the rapper's headline slot ended after 40 minutes.

Appearing on stage ten minutes earlier than scheduled, he told the crowd he would perform until his microphone was cut off - referencing the strict 21:30 curfew.

Fans were also left feeling shortchanged after the 38-year-old's set featured just three special guests - Popcaan, Rema and Vybz Kartel.

Saturday night's show, which ran for 90 minutes, featured 13 special guests, while Friday's show also had a similar runtime and included six surprise acts.

Line-up changes

Earlier in the day, the official setlist had advertised two Drake sets - one at 18:25 and one at 20:55.

The first mysteriously disappeared from the schedule during the course of the afternoon, with planned performances from Vybz Kartel and Burna Boy going ahead in their allotted time slots.

Fans appeared surprised when Drake entered the stage just minutes after Burna Boy had finished, with the Canadian announcing himself to the crowd by speaking to fans.

He appeared agitated, which was a departure from his more upbeat attitude from Friday and Saturday night.

Drake started his set by playing an unreleased collaboration with British rapper Central Cee, who did not appear on stage to perform but instead mouthed the words from his position in the front row, which was projected across the big screens.

The Toronto rapper and singer appeared apologetic throughout, promising to play some of his biggest hits to win over the crowd.

He told the crowd: "London, I will love you for the rest of my life," as he raced through a medley of tracks.

They included Controlla, Find Your Love and One Dance, which were remixed and updated for 2025, but felt slightly rushed, with their new arrangements making it difficult for fans to sing along.

A surprise appearance from Nigerian rapper Rema raised spirits in the crowd, with tracks Calm Down and Fever proving a highlight.

But after a brief cameo from Jamaican dancehall artist Vybz Kartel, who had performed to a huge crowd earlier in the day, there was only time for two more Drake solo songs.

For the third night in a row, he climbed onto a crane to wave to the 50,000 attendees as Whitney Houston's I Will Always Love You blasted through the speakers.

After gaining social media traction over the weekend, fans quickly realised it signalled the end of a disappointedly short headline set.

Drake already fell victim to the 22:30 curfew on Friday night, with organisers cutting both his and Lauryn Hill's microphones off and replacing show graphics with information on local train stations.

He did a better job of keeping timings in check during Saturday's show, but it is unknown whether it was his decision to start his Sunday evening set 45 minutes before the event was due to end.

Fans around us expressed their discontent as they shuffled to the exits, with many unaware of the strict local curfews that operate in the park.

Some even told us they had spent longer queuing to get into the venue than they'd seen Drake perform.

Whilst attempting to leave, we were alerted to scenes of distress at the accessible exit.

Fans could be seen and heard pleading with security to let them leave after being told they would have to be held in a restrictive space for ten minutes or until other security gave them the green light.

This led to hysteria, with fans attacking the barriers, shouting and pleading that they were disabled and needed to leave.

Wireless Festival's organisers have been contacted by the BBC for comment.