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创新药豪赌十年,出海潮并非终点

“手里缺钱但有管线的中国创新药企,和手里有钱但缺管线的跨国药企,刚好对上了。”

“地方政府间的竞争,是驱动本轮创新药高速发展的重要原因。”

港股18A机制,与科创板开板,成为一批中国创新药企业成长的新支点。

国家医保局和国家卫生健康委首次提出“增设商业健康保险创新药品目录”。

南方周末记者 施璇

发自:广东中山

责任编辑:冯叶

中山市康方湾区科技园。视觉中国/图

中山市康方湾区科技园。视觉中国/图

2025年,中国创新药对外授权(License-out)交易持续升温。

License-out,指创新药企将自主研发的药物、技术或专利授权给其他公司,通常是跨国药企(MNC),由对方负责后续的开发、生产、上市和销售。授权方通过收取首付款、里程碑付款和销售分成获得收益。这是创新药商务拓展(BD)中的一种常见交易方式。

据生物科技信息平台“药时代”不完全统计,2025年上半年,中国创新药领域的BD出海交易已超过50起,其中披露的合作总金额合计高达484.48亿美元,延续了2024年的出海热度。2024年,中国药企全年BD交易出海总额为519亿美元,已创历史新高。

过亿美元大单不断涌现。2025年5月,三生制药(01530.HK)和跨国医药巨头辉瑞(PFE.NYSE)达成一项授权合作,潜在交易总额超60亿美元,其中首付款12.5亿美元,刷新中国创新药License-out交易纪录。

资本市场反应剧烈。截至2025年7月8日,恒生创新药指数年内上涨超65%,恒生生物科技指数亦上涨近60%,大幅跑赢同期恒指科技板块约17%的涨幅,并带动多只A股创新药ETF同步反弹。

2025年,恰逢中国创新药迈入第十个年头。自2015年中国药品审评审批制度改革启动以来,行业逐渐摆脱对仿制药的依赖,经历了快速跟随(Fast-follow)向同类最优(Best-in-Class,BIC)、同类首创(First-in-Class,FIC)的持续演进。

这一过程是如何发生的?

“特殊结果”

“这波BD,是全球市场特殊时期产生的特殊结果。”曾在重庆华邦制药(002004.SZ)担任知识产权负责人、副总经理的孟八一向南方周末记者总结。

此轮浪潮之前,作为卖方的中国创新药企正面临融资寒冬,资本市场的低迷已持续三年之久。在同写意新药英才俱乐部创始理事长朱迅看来,这是促使企业选择出售授权、寻求出海合作的直接原因。朱迅历任新药领域监管层专家、药企高管、一级市场投资人等。

时钟倒回2019年前后,创新药当属港股和科创板追捧的明星板块,朱迅则是业内最早提醒泡沫风险的人,也因此曾被称作“砸场子的人”。

他向南方周末记者回忆,自2021年起,创新药板块一级市场融资遇冷,二级市场估值大幅跳水,港股18A创新药企市值打折,上市破发频现。2023年,科创板第五套上市标准一度叫停,创新药行业的资金困境进一步加剧。

港股18A指的是《香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则》第18A章,联交所于2018年4月修订新增。次年7月,科创板开板,第五套上市标准开始使用。两套制度均为未盈利但有核心技术的创新药企业打开了融资通道。

据头豹研究院,截至2024年一季度末,港股18A企业仅有4家股价处于发行价之上,在破发的60家企业中,平均破发程度为71%,其中13家破发程度超90%。

而创新药行业恰恰是一个投入周期长、资金消耗量巨大的行业。

朱迅直言,创新药企业也逐渐开始意识到,受限于中国医保支付的特殊性,单靠本土市场,难以支撑长期盈利。于是,License-out成为越来越多企业缓解现金流、延长生存时间的现实选择。

在交易对面,跨国药企同样难言轻松,正面临双重压力。

孟八一解释,美国2022年通过的《通胀降低法案》(IRA)规定,自2026年起,美国医保Medicare将对部分重磅药品实行强制降价,直接威胁到大药企的长期盈利。

与此同时,全球专利悬崖步步紧逼。到2030年全球将有数十款重磅炸弹药(Blockbuster,年销售额过10亿美元)专利到期,累计影响市场规模超过2000亿美元。这批药物

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校对:星歌

欢迎分享、点赞与留言。本作品的版权为南方周末或相关著作权人所有,任何第三方未经授权,不得转载,否则即为侵权。

“下班后已读不回”:留下的留学生,重新打量工作与生活

相较于欧美等传统留学热门地,泰国正凭借高性价比、国际化教育环境和政策便利等核心优势,成为中国留学生的平替选择。泰国2024年共接收5.3万名国际学生,其中中国留学生占到一半以上。

“在这里久了,人会习惯这种不紧不慢的节奏。”王真说,“如果回国,要重新适应高压竞争的职场,可能很难。”

南方周末记者 王航

责任编辑:姚忆江

新西兰时间下午5点,张羽楠关上电脑的瞬间,工作软件上的消息随之沉寂,一天的工作,就此准时画上句号。

此刻的西班牙巴塞罗那,蒋冉刚刚睡醒,慢悠悠地拿起手机打卡,准备开启居家办公的一天。

而在泰国曼谷,刚刚硕士毕业的李奕,正准备去上泰语课,希望凭借中英泰三语优势,在当地谋得一份理想职业。

全球化浪潮下,越来越多的中国学生选择走出国门,踏上留学之路。有人怀揣“海外镀金”的初衷,期待学成归国;有人将留学视为跳板,决心在异国他乡扎根,寻觅职业与生活的新可能。

在英美等传统留学大国之外,西班牙、新西兰、泰国等新兴目的地,尽管在全球高校排名中并不突出,却因独特的职场文化、签证政策和就业环境,吸引着越来越多的年轻人,他们渴望实现从“留学生”到“新移民”的身份转变,也在寻求工作与生活的平衡。

然而,想要在异国找到适配的坐标,并非易事。

国际学生的海外就业之路,实则是个人综合能力、专业选择、政策导向与市场机遇相互作用的多维博弈。语言能力能否突破沟通壁垒,专业选择是否契合当地需求,都是必须直面的现实问题。

从留学到留下

2025年6月24日圣胡安仲夏节,是西班牙传统假日。因恰逢周二,蒋冉就职的西班牙制造业龙头企业按惯例将周一连在一起,加上两天周末,凑成一个四天的小长假。

“‘桥假’是西班牙惯常的放假方法,只要不是如餐馆、超市等对外持续营业的行业,一般都会拼凑起来放假。”蒋冉告诉南方周末记者。

2014年初到西班牙留学时,蒋冉并没有想过留下来。彼时,西班牙正深陷全球经济危机带来的生意萧条和失业率攀升之中。

“当时基本上是西班牙失业率最高的时候,差不多一半年轻人找不到工作,巴塞罗那街头游行不断,读书热情低迷。在很多人看来,读博不如去酒吧端盘子,班上很多人读到大一大二就退学了。”

促使她踏上西班牙留学之路的,是现实的成本考量。蒋冉原本就读于中国澳门某大学西班牙语专业。大一时,她到巴塞罗那自治大学做交换生。蒋冉发现,巴塞罗那公立大学对国际学生与本地生收费一致。她算了一笔账,加上学费和生活成本,西班牙留学一年的花费在10万元人民币左右,比中国澳门要便宜。

“与其在国内读西语,不如直接拿西语在西班牙读其他专业,相当于拿双学位。”梧桐索性退学,重新申请了巴塞罗那大学的工商管理专业。

与蒋冉不同,王真2013年去新西兰读研时,就已做好移民打算。

为吸引技术移民填补关键职位空缺,新西兰推出动态更新的“绿色名单”,为清单上的职业提供快速居留通道。王真申请的会计专业,是奥克兰大学的王牌专业,跻身全球前一百名,当时恰被列入移民“绿色名单”。

研究生毕业后,王真获得一年期开放工签,可以自由寻找工作。只要找到雇主、签订合同,便

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England and Wales aim to avoid double elimination

England and Wales aim to avoid double elimination

England striker Alessia Russo and Wales captain Angharad JamesImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

England play Netherlands in Zurich, before Wales face France in St Gallen

When England and Wales were drawn together in Group D of Euro 2025, many fans and pundits would have circled the fixture between the home nations as a key date in the competition.

However, after both sides lost their opening games in Switzerland, there is real fear the match will be a dead rubber.

If, on Wednesday, England lose to the Netherlands and Wales are beaten by France, both will be eliminated before their final game.

They are fighting for their Euro lives - and both know improved displays are required to avoid the worst-case scenario of a double elimination after two matches.

BBC Sport takes a look at the challenges facing both sides in their second games in Switzerland.

England 'want to be better'

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Media caption,

We're our own biggest critics - Russo

England v Netherlands at Euro 2025

Venue: Stadion Letzigrund, Zurich Date: Wednesday 9 July, 17:00 BST

Coverage: Watch on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Listen on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds

Defending champions England face Euro 2017 winners the Netherlands and, following their 2-1 defeat by France on Saturday, they will be knocked out if they lose and France are not beaten by Wales.

The Netherlands have won two of their last three meetings with England - but the Lionesses have never lost back-to-back matches under Sarina Wiegman.

If teams finish on the same points after three matches, it will come down to head-to-head records to decide the two qualification spots.

"Ultimately we don't like losing but when a result like that happens you have to reflect and come together as a team," said England striker Alessia Russo.

"We have bounced back before. We know we weren't up to it against France. For our own standards, we want to be better. That sets the bar for us.

"We're our own biggest critics as players so we're all ready to get out there and have another good game."

Manager Wiegman, who won Euro 2017 as Netherlands boss, said England have "not talked about consequences" but admitted it was a must-win game.

"We lost [against France] and we play against a very good opponent again, but we're really good too," she told BBC Radio 5 Live.

"It's a final for us, we will do everything to win. Every game is must-win. We've experienced that before."

Wiegman was captain under Netherlands boss Andries Jonker for the national team and they have been friends for almost 30 years.

Asked how Wiegman will handle the pressure, Jonker said: "She is very experienced and she knows you cannot always win.

"She will not panic and her experience will help her. It is not a problem for her - but more for everyone around her.

"If you win, there is a party. If you don't win, then you have a problem. In football you have to play against each other and you want to win.

"It wouldn't make me more happy to win than against anyone else in football, if anything, I [would be] disappointed for Sarina. But I want to win."

Wales must 'show how proud we are'

Rhian WilkinsonImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Rhian Wilkinson has guided Wales to their first ever major tournament

France v Wales at Euro 2025

Venue: Arena St Gallen, St Gallen Date: Wednesday 9 July, 20:00 BST

Coverage: Listen on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds and follow text updates on BBC Sport website

Manager Rhian Wilkinson has urged her side to "show Wales how proud we are to represent our country" when they face France.

Wales' 3-0 defeat by Netherlands means they must earn at least a point in St Gallen against a team they have never beaten before to avoid elimination from their first major tournament.

Having had less than ideal preparation for the daunting contest with France after their team bus was involved in a crash that saw their training session at Arena St Gallen cancelled, Wilkinson says her squad will focus on football with everyone on the bus thankfully uninjured.

"I think football is secondary and I think, yes, we are shaken," she told BBC Sport Wales. "We've practised for the unexpected, I think that's what we can call this.

"This is a fantastic opportunity, this is another good team, we've talked about that enough that these are three strong teams in our group, it's another opportunity for us to show up and to play to the best of our ability.

"Everyone's aware of what it means if we don't get a point, but equally it's about delivering as strong a performance as we possibly can to have another opportunity to show Wales how proud we are to represent our country."

Captain Angharad James feels confident that Wales, who are yet to win a match in all competitions in 2025, can produce an improved performance now that the emotional burden of playing an historic first major tournament match is behind them.

"Emotions were obviously high in the first game. We'd waited a very long time for that moment," she said.

"To run out of the tunnel and experience that was maybe an experience that a lot of us hadn't experienced before. Now we know what to expect, now we know what's in front of us."

Wales' aim of causing a massive shock against France has been boosted by the news that all 23 players are fit and available for selection after midfielder Ceri Holland reported for training after leaving the Netherlands match with cramp.

Trump and Netanyahu hold second meeting for Gaza ceasefire talks

Watch: The BBC asks about the Trump administration's vision for Gaza

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday evening for the second time in as many days to discuss the ongoing war in Gaza.

The meeting came after Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff suggested Israel and Hamas had one remaining issue to agree on for a 60-day ceasefire deal.

Netanyahu arrived at the White House shortly after 17:00 EST (21:00 GMT) on Tuesday for the meeting, which was not open to members of the press.

Earlier on Tuesday, Netanyahu met with vice-president JD Vance. He also met with Trump for several hours during a dinner at the White House on Monday.

It marks Netanyahu's third state visit to the US since Trump's second term.

The meeting of the two leaders lasted around two hours.

Netanyahu also met with the Republican House of Representative Speaker Mike Johnson.

After that meeting, the Israeli Prime Minister said he did not believe Israel's military campaign in Gaza was done, but that negotiators are "certainly working" on a ceasefire.

"We still have to finish the job in Gaza, release all our hostages, eliminate and destroy Hamas' military and government capabilities," Netanyahu said.

Witkoff later said that Israel and Hamas were closing the gap on issues that previously prevented them from reaching a deal, and that he hoped a temporary, 60-day ceasefire will be agreed on this week.

"We had four issues and now we're down to one", Witkoff said of the sticking points in negotiations.

He added that the draft deal would also include the release of 10 hostages who are alive, and the bodies of nine who are deceased.

Before the Israeli Prime Minister's meeting with Trump on Monday, a Qatari delegation arrived at the White House and spoke with officials for several hours, Axios reported, citing a source with knowledge of the talks.

Trump told reporters on Monday evening that ceasefire talks are "going very well". But Qatar, which has played a mediator role in negotiations, said on Tuesday morning that more time was needed for negotiations.

"I don't think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this," Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said.

Before discussions resumed on Tuesday, a Palestinian source familiar with the talks told the BBC they have not made any headway.

The latest round of negotiations between Hamas and Israel began on Sunday.

The ongoing Gaza war began on 7 October 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, according to Israeli figures. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 57,500 in Gaza according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

川普爆粗口批普丁 證實將增加對烏克蘭軍援

周昱君
2025-07-09T04:27:53.117Z
川普過去常聲稱與普丁交好,但最近幾個月多次表達對他的不滿。

(德國之聲中文網)斡旋俄烏停火半年多的努力未見具體成效,美國總統川普對待俄羅斯和烏克蘭的態度轉變愈趨明顯。這週以來,川普除了表示美國必須繼續軍援烏克蘭,也再一次展現出對俄國總統普丁的不滿。

週二(7月8日),川普在白宮出席內閣會議時直言:「我對普丁並不滿意,這是我現在就可以告訴你的……我們聽了一堆普丁的廢話(bulls**t)……他總是非常和善,但結果這都是沒有意義的。」

川普說:「普丁沒有善待人類,他殺太多人了。」

川普稱他考慮支持一項制裁俄羅斯的法案,由共和黨參議員格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)和民主黨的布盧門撒爾(Richard Blumenthal)提出,欲對購買俄羅斯石油、天然氣等產品的國家徵收500%的關稅。

先前川普雖曾威脅要擴大對俄制裁,但一直沒有付諸實踐,盼能迫使普丁和談。上週兩人再度通話,川普透露他「非常失望」,認為普丁根本無意停止戰爭。

過去川普多次聲稱自己跟普丁關係很好,並主張如果2022年是他擔任總統,俄羅斯就不會侵略烏克蘭。據美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)8日公布的錄音檔,川普去年曾在競選募款的場合上自稱對普丁這麼說過:「如果你侵略烏克蘭,我就要把莫斯科炸爛,我跟你說我別無選擇。」

批准軍援烏克蘭、與國防部不同調?

週一(7日),川普表示美國應該運送更多防禦裝備給烏克蘭,隔天稱已批准此事。他說,美國必須使烏克蘭有能力自我防衛,「他們現在遭受非常嚴重的攻擊」。

《華爾街日報》引述知情官員說法指,川普打算額外提供一套「愛國者」防空飛彈(Patriot)給烏克蘭。

烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基週二已下令烏方官員跟美方擴大往來,確保關鍵的軍事物資順利出貨:「我們現在有了一切必要的政治表態和決策,必須盡快落實。」

對於川普批准更多對烏軍援,克里姆林宮發言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)稱:「很顯然,這些舉動跟促進和平方案的嘗試並不一致。」

值得注意的是,美國國防部上週二以庫存不足為由,宣布暫停一部分對烏軍援,凍結了「愛國者」飛彈、具精確導引能力的多管火箭系統(GMLRS)、「地獄火」飛彈(Hellfire)和榴彈砲彈藥出貨。

美聯社消息指,此舉不只讓烏克蘭和其他盟國訝異,就連川普本人也措手不及,認為國防部沒有跟白宮妥善協調。不過,美國國防部發言人威爾森(Kingsley Wilson)稱,防長赫格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)並非在沒有諮詢川普的情況下採取行動。

8日的白宮內閣會議上,川普被問及暫停軍援是誰做的決策,他回應:「我不知道,你說呢?」

CNN解讀,此事突顯川普政府內部、尤其是赫格塞斯領導下的美國國防部,決策過程經常是缺乏計畫的。

美國網媒AXIOS則指出,共和黨內部的鷹派人士對政府的國防決策也充滿擔憂,例如參議員麥康諾(Mitch McConnell)便表示,總統因而常常要替手下的官員「收爛攤子」,呼籲川普應拒絕政府內部孤立主義者限制提供武器的呼聲。

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亞洲為何吞川普關稅重拳?專家指向中國因素

null 周子馨
2025-07-09T03:51:14.229Z
川普週一公布的14國新關稅稅率主要為亞洲國家。

(德國之聲中文網)美國總統川普週二(7月8日)在社群平台「真實社群」(Truth Social)上發文稱,將於週三早上發布貿易公告,涉及至少7個國家。

週一晚間,川普宣布對14個國家實施新關稅稅率,其中大多數是亞洲國家,包含日本、韓國、柬埔寨、印尼、泰國、馬來西亞、寮國和緬甸,稅率介於25%至40%。

川普表示,雖然這些關稅將於8月1日生效,但仍有談判空間,「如果(有國家)提出不同的方案,而我喜歡的話,我們就會接受」。

川普為何針對亞洲國家?

有分析人士認為,川普政府這次集中針對亞洲國家,是美國間接打擊中國的策略,目的是在中美持續的貿易與戰略競爭中,削弱中國的區域貿易網絡。

中國是日本、韓國、馬來西亞、緬甸和印尼的最大貿易夥伴,也是柬埔寨與泰國的最大進口來源國。這意味著,這些亞洲國家與中國經貿聯繫密切,而美國藉由對這些國家施壓,有可能迫使它們重新考慮與中國的經濟合作關係。

上週,川普政府宣布與越南達成貿易協議,美國同意將對越南的關稅降至20%,但其中一項條款規定,對所謂的貨物轉運(即中國透過越南等地向第三國銷售貨物)徵收40%的關稅。

越南與美國的協議可能成為其他亞洲國家與川普談判的範例,但部分觀察人士指出,若美國在與各國的貿易協議中納入限制與中國貿易的條款,恐怕會適得其反。

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)經濟學家萊瑟(Gareth Leather)表示:「若如部分報導所言,美國正試圖讓亞洲其他地區把中國排除在區域供應鏈之外,那麼談判可能會出現問題。」

萊瑟指出,這些亞洲國家可能會擔心損害與中國的關係,擔心遭到中國的報復。中國對它們而言,不僅是比美國更大的貿易夥伴,也是更重要的投資來源。

凱投宏觀另一位分析師威廉斯(Mark Williams)也認為,鑒於越南對美國出口的商品數量,該國在與美國的談判中處於弱勢,因此美國及越南達成的貿易協議並不是「其他國家必須跟隨的範本」。

他強調,對其他國家來說,從美越貿易協議以及美國之前與英國達成的協議得到的關鍵教訓是,「他們都會被預期要限制部分與中國的貿易往來」。

今年6月達成的美英貿易協議中包含了一項條款,要求英國遵守嚴格的美國安全要求,例如審查供應鏈和公司所有權,此舉被視為針對中國。

一切都只與中國有關嗎?

川普週一公布給各國領導人的關稅通知信中,稱這些國家對美國的貿易順差是「對經濟甚至國家安全的重大威脅」,再加上川普政府早前已經與中國達成貿易協議框架,美中貿易戰宣告暫時休兵,可見與其他亞洲國家的關稅問題並非僅是劍指北京。

過去幾週以來,川普批評日本「被寵壞」,且沒有購買更多美國商品,尤其是農產品。另外如韓國及印度也被川普政府點名沒有購買足夠美國農產品。

日本及韓國都已表態將持續與美國談判。華府智庫「戰略與國際研究中心」(CSIS)資深經濟顧問雷恩施(Bill Reinsch)向DW表示,考慮到川普帶來的不確定性,一些亞洲國家可能不會願意做出足夠大的讓步來安撫他。

他認為,目前讓各國裹足不前的原因可能是,「如果我們現在同意了什麼,你(川普)會不會兩週後又針對其他產業加徵關稅?」雷恩施強調,如果美國無法被信任,「很難讓人願意做出承諾」。

相关图集:特朗普关税战2.0时间线梳理

2025年2月1日 |对墨、加、中加征关税:特朗普上任后首次大规模加征关税:自2月1日开始对美国三大贸易伙伴加拿大、墨西哥和中国加征关税。特朗普宣布对邻国加拿大和墨西哥进口商品加征25%的关税,指责两国未能阻止非法移民进入美国;对来自中国商品加征10%的关税,指责中国在芬太尼生产中扮演重要角色。
2025年2月10日 |加征钢铝关税 无例外豁免:特朗普2月10日签署行政令,对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝制品加征25%关税,并取消加拿大、墨西哥和巴西等钢铝主要供应国的免税额度。
2025年3月26日|宣布对进口汽车全面征税:特朗普于3月26日宣布,自4月3日起,对所有进口汽车与轻型卡车征收25%的关税。全球汽车供应链受冲击,日韩汽车产业首当其冲。受此消息影响,丰田、本田、现代和起亚等汽车制造商股价大幅下跌,总市值蒸发约165亿美元。
2025年4月2日|宣布“对等关税”:特朗普4月2日在白宫玫瑰花园举行“让美国再次富有”(Make America Wealthy Again)记者会,宣布“对等关税”措施。美国对大多数国家征收10%的基准关税,但针对特定国家征收更高税额。中国、欧盟和越南分别面临34%、20%和46%的关税; 日本、韩国、印度、柬埔寨和台湾,分别受到24%、25%、26%、49%和32%进口关税的打击。
2025年4月9日|暂缓关税90日 中国除外:特朗普4月9日在大规模“对等关税”上路不到24小时后出现政策大转弯,宣布暂缓征收“对等关税”90天,在此期间,税率将统一降至10%的基准关税。但中国被排除在暂缓名单之外,不仅如此,还将对中国的关税加码至145%,其中包含了美国此前指控中国打击芬太尼不力而征收的20%关税。
2025年5月4日 | 对美国境外制作的电影征收100%关税:特朗普5月4日以“国安威胁”为由,宣布将对非美国制作的电影征收100%关税,理由是要“拯救美国电影业”。
2025年5月12日|中美关税战90天“停火协议”:美中高层在瑞士进行谈判后于5月12日发布联合声明,就90天的“暂停期”达成协议:美国对大多数中国输美商品加征145%的关税将在5月14日前下调至30%,30%关税里包括针对芬太尼问题额外施加的20%惩罚性关税;中国对美产品加征的125%关税则将降至10%。美中双边早前不断叠加的报复性关税,在这波协商中几乎都被取消。(图为美财政部长贝森特与贸易谈判代表格里尔出席美中贸易会谈)
2025年5月13日|美大幅下调中国“小包裹”关税:白宫5月13发布行政命令,将从5月14日起将对中国低价值货物(不超过800美元)征收的“最低限度”关税从120%下调至54%,原计划的200美元固定费用征税方案被搁置,现行的100美元固定费用将继续执行。
5月23日 对阵欧盟:特朗普威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品加征50%的统一关税。他同时警告苹果公司,若其在美国销售的手机是在海外生产的,将面临25%的关税。两天后,特朗普收回了对欧盟加征50%关税的威胁,他表示,与欧委会主席冯德莱恩通电话后,同意将美国和欧盟的谈判期限延长至7月9日。
5月28日 美国法院裁定特朗普对等关税“越权”:美国联邦国际贸易法庭裁定,特朗普今年4月2日对多国征收的对等关税,以及早前向中国、加拿大和墨西哥加征的报复性关税都属于“非法”。判决认定,特朗普征收全球关税的行为超出了《国际经济紧急权力法》(IEEPA)赋予总统的权限。美政府表示将对该裁决提出上诉。
5月29日 美国上诉法院暂准特朗普关税恢复执行:美国联邦上诉法院一天后推翻该判决,让特朗普的关税政策得以持续实施。上诉法院指出,为了审理特朗普政府的上诉,将先暂缓此前法院的裁决,并命令原告及特朗普政府分别在6月5日和6月9日前提交回应文件。
5月30日 特朗普全面上调钢铝关税:美国总统特朗普宣布将对全球钢铁和铝产品的进口关税提高至50%。中国是美国的第三大铝供应国。他指责中国未按约降低关税,取消针对稀土等产品的贸易限制。他说:“中国完全违反了与我们达成的协议。不能再做好好先生了!”
6月10日 美中谈判双方宣布原则上达成贸易框架协议:中国和美国官员在英国伦敦举行贸易谈判,经过两天的会议,6月10日,双方宣布原则上已达成贸易框架协议,以落实5月在瑞士日内瓦的共识、还有两国领袖上周的通话内容。特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social上表示,按照美中达成的新的贸易协议,美国将从中国获得稀土磁体。他还表示,将允许中国学生在协议达成后继续留在美国大学学习。

川普再宣布對銅、藥品加徵關稅

儘管與各國的關稅談判尚未結束,川普週二在內閣會議上再度宣布新關稅。

川普稱,美國將針對進口銅及相關衍生品徵收50%的關稅,並且很快會對半導體和藥品徵稅,其中藥品稅率可能高達200%,但會提供約一年的緩衝期。此舉被視為進一步擴大這場已經引起全球市場震動的貿易戰。

銅對電動車、軍事裝備、電網和許多消費品的生產至關重要。這項新關稅將與先前已實施的鋼鐵、鋁汽車進口關稅相呼應,但目前尚不清楚針對銅的關稅何時生效。

DW記者Arthur Sullivan對此文有貢獻

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© 2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。



Wildfires Scar Syria Anew

The country is experiencing its worst drought in decades, which has set the conditions for the blazes to scorch an area the size of Washington, D.C.

© Ghaith Alsayed/Associated Press

Emergency responders with the Syrian Civil Defense, known as the White Helmets, near the town of Rabia, in the Latakia countryside of Syria, late Sunday.

Britain’s Economic Bind: Face Public Disapproval or Investor Wrath

The Labour Party is starting its second year in control of the government with difficult choices over whether to curb spending or raise taxes.

© Pool photo by Hannah Mckay

Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, left, with the chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, who faces tough choices: raise taxes, cut spending or borrow at a time when debt and interest rates are high.

为什么美国人买不到世界上最好的电动汽车

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为什么美国人买不到世界上最好的电动汽车

MICHAEL DUNNE
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
你可能听说过比亚迪(BYD)。
几年前,比亚迪还是汽车行业一个平平无奇的参与者,但在去年,这家中国电动汽车制造商超越特斯拉,成为全球最畅销的电动车品牌,而且预计到2030年,它将与全球最大车企丰田和大众并驾齐驱
然而,大多数美国人从未见过比亚迪汽车,而且短期内恐怕也不会见到。
由于关税,这个以英文“Build Your Dreams”(成就梦想)的缩写为名的品牌相当于被禁止驶上美国的道路,这些关税为了保护美国汽车制造商而设,使进口的中国插电式汽车的价格翻倍。筑起关税壁垒或许能为本国汽车行业争取到一些时间,但最终并不能使美国制造商免受比亚迪——以及它所代表的更大威胁——的冲击。
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比亚迪代表着一种让美国望尘莫及的中国产业模式。这种模式结合了政府财政支持、有条不紊的长期规划以及积极的创新,使中国得以在从电池到机器人再到无人机的一系列高科技行业实现全球主导地位。将这些市场让给中国企业已经够糟糕了。如果汽车制造业也发生同样的情况,对美国的影响将严重得多,因为该行业的规模及其经济、政治和战略重要性都举足轻重。
比亚迪和其他几家中国新兴汽车品牌的成功应该给美国汽车制造业乃至我们整个工业领域敲响警钟。我们需要有勇气承认自己已经严重落后,并摆脱自满情绪,发起由政府主导的紧急行动——想像一个汽车业的曼哈顿计划——以恢复美国的竞争力。
1992年我在北京开始我的汽车业务时,刚起步的中国汽车工业生产的车相当差。设计蹩脚,用料低廉,开不了多久就会坏,这很符合当时中国作为劣质仿制品工厂的名声。2003年开始制造汽车的电池制造商比亚迪也不例外。多年来,它的车在中国是出了名的破烂货。
但那是老黄历了。我开过比亚迪几乎所有车型,如今它们在设计、功能、先进技术和整体质量方面已经和特斯拉等其他顶级品牌不相上下。该公司的刀片电池是世界上最安全、最具成本效益的电池之一,质量好到丰田特斯拉都在它们生产的部分汽车中使用了它。最令竞争对手担忧的是,比亚迪汽车价格实惠:最便宜的车型在中国售价不到1万美元,是美国市场最便宜的电动车价格的三分之一。
比亚迪是如何做到这一点的?“政府补贴!”西方的批评者会这样大喊,这当然是部分原因。据信,比亚迪等中国车企多年来获得了数十亿美元国家补贴。这是国家资本主义在发挥作用。美国人可以尽情抱怨,但中国不会仅仅因为我们不喜欢就抛弃这种模式。
在设计、功能、先进技术和整体质量方面,中国汽车现在已经与特斯拉等顶级品牌一样出色。
在设计、功能、先进技术和整体质量方面,中国汽车现在已经与特斯拉等顶级品牌一样出色。 Felix Schmitt for The New York Times
政府支持也不是比亚迪成功的唯一原因。它能够降低造车成本,得益于所谓的垂直整合。虽然大多数主要汽车制造商的重要零部件都来自外部供应商,但比亚迪几乎所有的关键零部件都自己生产,包括电池、半导体、电机和平板屏幕,这节省了成本并加强了质量控制。汽车的操作系统也是自己开发的,他们还持有生产电池矿物的矿山矿业公司的股份,并用专门设计的汽车运输船队将生产的汽车运往世界各地。
比亚迪也在快速创新。今年,它发布了一项或许可以跟特斯拉媲美甚至更优的自动驾驶系统,以及据其称可以在短短五分钟内为汽车充好电的技术——就跟给油箱加满油一样快。其高端车型包括仰望U8,这是一款豪华SUV,可以原地掉头,并能像船一样在水中短距离行驶。
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有人会说,我们应该让比亚迪进入美国市场。这将为美国消费者提供高性价比的产品,并为美国制造商提供向该公司学习的机会。
但比亚迪目前在成本和电池技术方面拥有如此压倒性的优势,最终可能会摧毁其美国竞争对手,危及美国的关键产业和数十万个工作岗位。这就是为什么福特首席执行官吉姆·法利去年称中国电动车是生存威胁,以及为什么埃隆·马斯克说如果没有贸易壁垒,它们将“摧毁”竞争对手。
我们可以用关税来呵护美国车企,但这改变不了我们正在惨败的事实。中国无疑是当今世界上各类汽车的最大生产国和出口国其中包括电动车。比亚迪及其他的中国车企也许被美国拒之门外了,但它们正在拿下快速增长的全球电动汽车产业的控制权。由于无法在国外竞争,美国汽车制造商将不得不退守到它们依然强大的狭小领域:国内高油耗卡车和SUV市场。
美国必须借鉴中国的经验。十年前,中国领导人制定了主导下一代技术的蓝图,并为此投入巨额资金,而且他们深知这需要多年才能获得回报。比亚迪只是这一计划如今正在开花结果的众多例子之一。效仿中国这种政府深度参与的模式对华盛顿的许多人来说会难以接受。但美国在历史上还从未面对过像中国这样的产业竞争对手。
而且这不仅关乎电动车。强大的汽车行业对国防具有重要意义。汽车行业开发的种种技术,如电池、传感器和电机等,后来常常会被应用于军事装备。
中国对电动汽车所需电池和稀土矿产供应链的控制也是一个潜在的国家安全威胁,北京通过停止稀土和稀土磁铁的出口来报复美国贸易关税,让我们已经瞥见了这一点。
广告
在比亚迪这样的民族企业带领下,中国已经取代了底特律,成为全球汽车工业的中心。美国可以发起一场全面攻势,重建世界级的制造业和供应链,也可以让我们的车企躲在关税背后,继续生产燃油卡车和SUV,并最终变得无足轻重。

Michael Dunne (@dunne_insights) 是汽车行业咨询公司Dunne Insights的创始人兼首席执行官。他著有《American Wheels, Chinese Roads: The Story of General Motors in China》,以及即将出版的《Car Wars》,该书探讨了中美两国在电动汽车领域争夺主导地位的竞争。

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More than 100 hurt as wildfire rages near Marseille

Getty Images A fire currently burning in the hills north of Marseille, in the area of Les Pennes-Mirabeau, is producing thick smoke visible from the Vieux-Port. A large grey smoke cloud can be seen above orange-roofed buildings by the waterside, with small boats in the foreground.Getty Images
Smoke from the fire in the hills north of Marseille was visible from the city's Vieux-Port

A rapidly spreading wildfire has reached the outer edge of Marseille, France's second largest city.

"The marine firefighter battalion is waging guerrilla warfare, hoses in hand," said the city's Mayor Benoît Payan, referring to Marseille's fire and rescue service.

The prefect of the Bouches-du-Rhône area, Georges-François Leclerc, urged local residents to remain indoors and said firefighters were "defending" the city.

He said that while the situation was not static, it was "under control".

Marseille Provence airport has been closed for the rest of Tuesday.

Some residents have been advised to stay inside, close shutters and doors, and keep roads clear for emergency services.

The fire, which broke out earlier on Tuesday near Pennes-Mirabeau, north of Marseille, is said to have covered about 700 hectares (7 sq km).

Local authorities said the blaze was sparked by a car that caught fire on the motorway, and that it could continue to spread as strong winds are set to blow until late this evening.

"It's very striking - apocalyptic even," Monique Baillard, a resident of the town, told Reuters news agency. She said many of her neighbours had already left.

The local fire service said 168 firefighters had been deployed to fight the blaze, as well as fire engines and helicopters.

Marseille's mayor, Benoit Payan, asked residents to remain "extremely vigilant" and to limit their movements. Locals told French TV of dense traffic jams as people tried to evacuate the city.

Footage posted online showed huge plumes of smoke above Marseille as fire raged in a hilly area to its north.

The Bouches-du-Rhône area has not recorded a single drop of rain since 19 May, according to French broadcaster BFMTV.

Elsewhere in France, another wildfire that started near Narbonne on Monday remains active, fanned by winds of 60km (38mph) per hour. Some 2,000 hectares have burnt, local officials said.

Wildfires were also reported in other parts of Europe, including Spain's Catalonia region, where more than 18,000 people were ordered to stay at home because of a wildfire in the eastern province of Tarragona.

Emergency units were deployed alongside 300 firefighters as high winds overnight fanned the flames, which have spread across nearly 3,000 hectares (7,413 acres) of land.

Several other parts of Spain - which experienced its hottest June on record - were on high alert for wildfires.

In Greece, some 41 wildfires broke out across the country on Monday. Of those, 34 were contained early while seven remained active into Monday evening, according to the fire service.

Much of western and southern Europe was hit by a scorching early summer heatwave, sparking fires that saw thousands evacuated from their homes.

Days after Texas floods, at least 161 people are still missing in one county

Watch: Texas resident survived floods by standing on electrical box for three hours

At least 161 people are still missing in a single Texas county four days after deadly and devastating flash floods hit parts of the state last week, Governor Greg Abbott said, as hope fades for survivors to be found alive.

The missing in the hard-hit Kerr County include five campers and one counsellor from Camp Mystic, a Christian all-girls summer camp located on the banks of Guadalupe river.

At least 109 people have died in the disaster, including 94 in the Kerrville area alone, Abbott said in a news conference on Tuesday.

Texas is not alone. New Mexico saw a flash flood emergency as well, with the National Weather Service (NWS) warning of intense flooding on Tuesday night.

In Texas, frantic search and rescue efforts continue, with Abbott vowing emergency crews "will not stop until every missing person is accounted for".

Abbott added that it is very likely more missing will be added to the list in the coming days, and urged people to report anyone they think is unaccounted for.

General Thomas Suelzer from the Texas National Guard said search efforts include Chinook and Black Hawk helicopters with rescue hoists.

He said there are 13 Black Hawk helicopters helping in the search effort, including four that arrived from Arkansas. He added that authorities were also using reaper drones.

Responders from various agencies are working together on rescue efforts, including agents from border patrol, the FBI and the National Guard.

More than 250 responders from various agencies have been assigned to the Kerrville area alone to help with search and rescue.

One of those rescue volunteers, named Tim, told the BBC he has never seen any destruction at this scale before.

"I've done the floods down in East Texas and Southeast Texas, and hurricanes, and this is a nightmare," he said.

Another rescue volunteer, named Justin, compared the effort to "trying to find a single hay in a haystack".

"There's a wide trail of destruction for miles, and there's not enough cadaver dogs to go through all of it," he told the BBC.

"It's hard to access a lot of it with heavy machinery. Guys are trying to pick at it with tools and hands, and they're not even putting a dent in it – not for lack of effort."

Questions have been raised about whether authorities provided adequate flood warnings before the disaster, and why people were not evacuated earlier.

Experts say there were a number of factors that contributed to the tragedy in Texas, including the extreme weather, the location of the holiday homes and timing.

The governor, who had spent part of the day surveying the flood zone, said authorities had issued a storm warning and knew about a possible flash flood, but "didn't know the magnitude of the storm".

No one knew it would lead to a "30-foot high tsunami wall of water", he said.

The governor responded to a question about who was to "blame" for the enormous death toll, saying: "That's the word choice of losers."

He made a sports analogy, saying American football teams make mistakes; champion teams are the ones who don't "point fingers".

Watch: Drones and dogs help in Texas rescue

Most of the victims died in Kerr County, where the Guadalupe River was swollen by torrential downpours before daybreak on Friday, the July Fourth public holiday.

Camp Mystic had earlier confirmed at least 27 girls and staff were among the dead.

Those who survived are now focused on trying to rebuild.

Justin Brown has lived along the Guadalupe River for more than 25 years.

A week ago, he lived in his mobile home at the Blue Oak RV Park with his two young daughters and dog. Now, there is a huge puddle where his home once stood – his RV swept away in the floods.

"We were one of the few parks that got almost everybody out," Mr Brown told the BBC as he described the efforts of his landlord and emergency workers, who evacuated almost all of the park's residents.

Looking out over the empty lot where his home once stood – now just debris – he said he hopes to move back in as soon as he can.

President Donald Trump will travel to the flood-ravaged areas with First Lady Melania Trump on Friday.

Separately, in New Mexico, the NWS declared a flash flood emergency on Tuesday and told residents of Ruidoso to be on high alert for flooding.

Officials there are already working to rescue people trapped in floodwaters and houses are reportedly being washed away.

A flood wave on the Rio Ruidoso has reached 15 feet (4.5m), the NWS in Albuquerque said in a post on X.

The waters receded about two hours later, according to CBS, the BBC's US partner.

Officials had to perform some swift boat rescues and some people were unaccounted for as of Tuesday evening.

Watch: Moment house is swept away in New Mexico flash flooding

分红险遭遇史上最严“限高令”,最多46家寿险公司未失自主权

对分红险收益上限做出约束,相当于给不具备分红能力的保险公司戴上“紧箍”。

监管部门传递出三个信息:收益必须匹配能力;风险必须管控,严禁透支资本金支付红利;分类分级管理,优胜劣汰。

按新规,理论上有46家寿险公司可不受“限高令”限制,拥有较高的分红水平自主决定权。

“分红险,谜一样的存在”。这是消费者对分红险的普遍感觉。主要原因在于分红险不是独立账户运作,没有类似基金经理的“分红精算师”的监督,导致分红险透明度和公平性成为最大的问题。

南方周末研究员 张文景

责任编辑:丰雨

“分红险,谜一样的存在”。这是消费者因分红险不透明和不确定的分红而产生的感觉。

但这边厢,不少寿险公司为争夺客户而“内卷式”竞相提高分红率。

史上最严分红险“限高令”近日正式出台,力遏此股风气。2025年6月18日,国家金融监督管理总局人身保险监管司下发《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》(下称《意见函》),要求各保险公司审慎确定各产品年度分红水平,对分红险分红水平“限高”,避免分红水平进行“内卷式”竞争,以此提升分红保险可持续经营水平。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,无独有偶,香港也几乎同步祭出了分红险“限高令”。7月1日起,香港所有保险公司和保险经纪公司均需遵循香港保监局发布的《分红保单利益演示利率上限指引》(下称《指引》),对香港分红险演示利率进行“限高”,港元和非港元(包括美元)分红保单演示利率(预期收益率)分别不得超过6%和6.5%。

中国内地此次为何对分红险实施“限高令”?如何限高?现存75家寿险公司中,多少家公司将受限?它将对分红险业务乃至保险行业有何影响?如何保护消费者合法权益?南方周末新金融研究中心研究员综合运用定性和定量研究方法,在统计60家寿险公司分红险的基础上,访谈多名业内专家。调研发现,此次新规意在防止“高息内卷”,而设定分红上限是各国通行做法。与此同时,新规采用分级管理方式,将有效避免“一刀切”,促进优胜劣汰。

分红承诺不是画饼

何为分红险?这是一种兼具保障和投资双重属性的保险产品。在保障的基础上,投保人有机会分享保险公司的经营成果,获得红利分配。

其收益由保证收益和浮动收益两部分组成。保证收益,即固定返还部分;浮动收益,是保险公司根据分红险产品的业务经营状况,每年实际派发的红利。按照派发红利的方式,可以分为增额红利(也被称作“英式分红”)和现金红利(也被称作“美式分红”)。后者在中国大陆地区较为常见。

正因分红险具备上述特性,在利率持续走低的大背景下,寿险公司纷纷将转型分红险视为缓解“利差损”风险的战略举措。南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,多家寿险公司高层今年在业绩发布会或股东大会等场合宣称提升分红险产品占比,将此视作战略性产品。但2025年一季度上市险企披露业绩显示,转型并非易事,在多重因素影响下,寿险公司一季度新单保费小幅下滑,由此引发各公司对分红险市场更加激烈的争夺。

《意见函》此时落地,是否意味着监管部门对防范长期利差损风险的深谋远虑和对分红险非保证收益的审慎关切? 

一位曾在香港保险公司从业现任职于一家保险科技公司的保险精算师对南方周末新金融研究中心研究员称,过去各保险公司在分红险是否分红及分红多少方面有很强的自主权。在竞相转型分红险的集体行为中,有可能引发“高息内卷”。与此同时,分红险条款较为复杂,保险营销员为争抢客户,过度承诺或演示预期收益率过高等销售误导现象时有发生。这不仅损害消费者对分红险的信心,亦增加保险公司经营风险。毕竟销售时的分红承诺不能只是一个“画饼”。

事实上,政策在2024年已曾对分红险分红水平进行“限高”。2024年3月25日,监管部门以窗口指导方式要求部分中小险企万能险结算利率上限下调至3.3%,而大型险企的结算利率上限进一步下调至3.1%。同时,分红险的分红水平也要参照万能险执行。

新规如何对分红“限高”?南方周末新金融研究中心研究员注意到,《意见函》公布了决定保险公司分红水平上限的六类情形(见图)。该精算师对此表示,这体现了监管对持续低利率环境下“防内卷”式竞争的明确态度。按照《意见函》要求,人身保险业过去3年平均财务投资收益率(3.20%)成为拟分红水平对应的投资收益率“指导线”。财务收益率也被称作平均投资收益率。

上海对外经贸大学教授、上海市保险学会副会长郭振华在接受南方周末新金融究中心研究员调研时认为,上述六种情形都可能增加保险公司亏损,降低保险公司偿付能力和财务稳定性。在当前的市场环境下,需要充分论证和审定。中央财经大学中国精算科技实验室主任陈辉接受南方周末新金融究中心研究员调研时也称,限定六种情形是为了避免寿险公司提高演示利率的恶性竞争。 

上述精算师进一步解释称,对分红险收益上限做出约束,相当于给不具备分红能力的保险公司戴上“紧箍”。监管部门亦通过此举传递出三个信息:一是收益必须匹配能力,将分红与历史业绩挂钩。二是风险必须管控,严禁透支资本金支付红利;三是分类分级管理,优胜劣汰。

至少29家公司受限

若严格遵循新规,哪些寿险公司分红水平最高?

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员统计2025年一季度偿付能力达标的60家寿险公司发现,仅有8家寿险公司过去3年平均财务投资收益率低于过去3年平均综合投资收益率。二者区别主要在于,前者只反映实际实现的收益,不考虑未实现的潜在收益或损失,后者更全面地反映保险公司的投资表现,包括潜在的资本增值或减值。

换言之,财务投资收益率较高时,分红险账户的实际分红能力更强。而综合投资收益率较高时,分红险账户的潜在收益可能更高,但实际分红还需考虑未实现收益的稳定性。

进一步统计研究发现,近3年平均财务投资收益率不低于3.2%的寿险公司共有46家。这意味着,仅对照这”一种情形”,46家寿险公司可不受制于“限高令”,拥有较高分红水平自主决定权。但在《意见函》规定的”六种情形“中,监管机构对寿险公司的评级也是影响后者分红水平的重要因素。由于监管评级实施时间尚不足5个月,具体评级结果暂未公示。而根据《保险公司监管评级办法》,偿付能力所占权重为15%,与公司治理所占权重并列最高。在将风险评级作为参照标准的情况下,南方周末新金融研究中心研究员统计发现,近两次风险评级中有一次达到A级的寿险公司仅有23家。

“限高令”落地之后,有分红能力的保险公司的分红情况会怎样变化?

上述精算师对南方周末新金融究中心研究员称,《意见函》边际放松使分红收益率摆脱了2024年“一刀切”的状况,在一定程度上有助于提升分红实现率。南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,据不完全统计,截至目前,平安人寿、新华人寿、瑞泰人寿、德华安顾人寿、恒安标准人寿等寿险公司公布红利实现率。以平安人寿为例,该公司一款分红型终身寿险上期分红实现率为35.7%,而最新公布的分红实现率为50%。

分红实现率分布区间将更广。以新华人寿为例,在披露分红实现率的21款分红型保险产品中,7款产品红利实现率超过100%,最高达122%;其余14款产品的红利实现率在55%至90%区间。

对于保单持有人而言,红利实现率越高是否意味着实际分红多?

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,保单持有人获得的收益取决于保单预定利益、红利演示金额和红利实现率的综合表现,因此红利实现率高并不一定意味着实际分红多。

事实上,红利实现率指分红险产品实际派发的红利金额与销售时红利演示金额的比值,用于反映寿险公司分红型保险产品非保证保单利益的实现情况。因此,当保单预定利率较高、红利演示金额较高时,即便分红实现率相对较低,保单持有人同样可以获得相对可观的收益。 反之,当保单预定利率较低、红利演示金额较低时,即便分红实现率相对较高,保单持有人可获得收益亦不高。

对寿险公司而言,长期来看,红利实现率应保持在合理的区间。如果红利实现率过高,短期内虽然能吸引消费者,但可能使未来分红的持续性和稳定性受到影响。相反,红利实现率过低,则可能导致实际分红与红利演示之间出现较大偏差,损害消费者权益,引发退保风险。

小公司或面临更大压力

限高令落地之后,哪些寿险公司在分红险领域更有竞争力?

中泰证券葛玉翔等在研报中称,根据过去三年平均财务投资收益率表现历史来看,中大型寿险公司或将受益。他解释称,《意见函》边际放松,部分具有较高投资收益历史的头部公司最新一期保单年度分红水平同比改善。该调整类似存量负债“重定价”,相比预定利率“不追溯存量保单合同”,对负债成本压降作用较大。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研还发现,海通证券、东海证券、华创证券等研究报告均认为,此次政策利好大型寿险公司。郭振华和陈辉也持相同观点。

郭振华认为,当前正是整个寿险业从以固定利率产品为主向浮动收益的分红险转型的关键时期。在缺乏客户认可和销售能力的情况下,不少公司很可能又会走向价格竞争,采用高分红获取业务。这很可能给行业带来新增亏损,降低行业财务稳健性,降低行业穿越市场利率下行时期的能力。

陈辉补充称,《意见函》延续分类分级监管理念,有助于避免恶性竞争,但这些政策更多利好大公司。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,2025年上半年,寿险公司推出分红险产品速度明显加快。中国保险业协会数据显示,截至2025年7月1日,寿险公司共推出456款人寿保险产品和329款年金保险产品,二者合计785款,其中分红险259款,占比超过33%。而2024年全年在售分红险产品仅有348款。

 

从国际经验看,在低利率环境下,发展分红险是应对“利差损”的不二法门。原因在于分红型的预定利率相对较低,且其收益结构为“保底+浮动”,能够有效降低保险公司的负债资金成本,缓解“利差损”风险。

但从目前来看,分红险短时间难回“C位”。2025年一季度“开么红”期间,我国寿险业保费同比下降1.4%,为近十年少有现象。(详见:《“开门红”罕见降温,寿险业转型前路何在?》)这意味着,分红险产品类型占比高,但保费占比未同步提升。

陈辉称,近年来,监管部门积极引导行业发展浮动收益型产品,如万能险、分红险,希望寿险公司为客户提供“低保证利率+浮动型收益+高保障和附加服务”的产品体系。但《意见函》在抑制分红险发展中的不良因素时,亦有可能导致寿险保费增速下降。

处于劣势的中小寿险公司该如何应对?郭振华认为,相对大型公司,中小公司更可能使用低价竞争或高分红手段获取业务。《意见函》对可能的低价竞争进行了规范。中小公司因此将会面临更大的销售压力。他建议,中小寿险公司可能的策略有三种:一是提升和苦练分红险销售能力;二是在资产端尽量提升收益水平进而提升分红水平;三是同步开发和销售更偏保障的保险产品,如中高端医疗险、杠杆性寿险等,避免在分红险上过度价格竞争。

“限高令”国际通行

事实上,从全球视角观察,资产负债联动是全球寿险业缓解利差损风险的战略举措。发展浮动型产品是必然趋势,只是各个国家和地区的主流险种有一定差异。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,全球市场主流浮动收益型产品主要包括分红险、利变型或指数型(类似中国万能险)和变额型(类似中国投连险)。美国、日本、韩国以类万能险和投连险为主,而在中国香港地区分红险是主流。

在转型浮动收益型产品过程中,推出“限高令”是国际通行做法。与之配套的措施有建立预定利率动态调整机制、要求增加风险准备金、优化投资组合、发展保障型产品、增强透明度要求等等。

对比发达市场寿险业可以发现,中国香港在市场环境与居民偏好上与内地更为接近,浮动收益型产品均以分红险为主。南方周末新金融研究中心研究员调研发现,分红险在内地已存在25年。(详见:《“开门红”罕见降温,寿险业转型前路何在?》

在25年间,监管机构对于分红险的监管始终秉持着审慎的态度。通过一系列文件,形成限制保单预定利率、标准化分红演示水平、透明化红利实现率等政策体系,以应对分红险市场的发展和变化,预防分红险市场竞争乱象和虚假宣传导致大规模退保事件的发生。

 

香港分红险以分红型终身寿险为主,其次是储蓄寿险和年金。内地也同样如此。不同之处在于,香港的分红型终身寿险产品功能丰富,比如支持多币种、保单可分拆、无限更改被保险人、附带医疗险功能等,而内地产品功能相对单一。

从收益率角度看,香港的分红险收益率远高于内地。事实上,二者的投资资产结构类似,均以固定收益类资产为主,但得益于相对宽松的监管和法律环境,香港保险公司可以便捷地进行全球资产配置,浮动收益部分相对空间较大,同时也要承担汇率风险。

若从消费者角度而言,在长期低利率环境下,居民投资理财偏好从“保障+高利率储蓄”转向“保障+投资+低保底”是大势所趋。而分红险可以满足客户“保障+理财”的双重需求。

但在实际运营和销售宣传中,销售人员往往通过演示较高的红利分配水平吸引消费者投保,而较少提及保险合同长久期中红利分配的波动性,更甚少强调分红险的保障属性。

陈辉甚至表示,“分红险,谜一样的存在”。这是消费者对分红险的普遍感觉。主要原因就在于分红险不是独立账户运作,没有类似基金经理的“分红精算师”的监督,导致分红险透明度和公平性成为最大的问题。

如何提升消费者获得感,保障消费者合法权益?南方周末新金融研究中心研究员综合三位受访对象观点,提出三点建议:一是寿险公司应通过合理的资金运用提升分红险的红利实现率,并通过运用分红险特别储备账户来平滑整个保险周期的分红表现,确保分红的稳定性和可预测性。

二是寿险公司应强调分红险“保险姓保”的原则和投资分红的波动性,摒弃一味地“炒停售”和过度运用降息来刺激保险消费的做法。销售人员应注重引导消费者了解保险的本质,正确看待分红收益并调整预期。在销售过程中,应充分提示保险产品的风险和收益特性,帮助消费者根据自身的风险偏好和财务目标,选择合适产品。

三是加强消费者教育。消费者在选择分红险时,应认识到保险产品的主要功能是提供风险保障,而非追求高收益;在评估保险产品时,消费者应综合考虑保障范围、保费负担、分红潜力等因素,而不是单纯地被宣传的高收益所吸引。

校对:星歌

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The Bayeux Tapestry, a British Masterpiece, Returns to England After 900 Years

The embroidered work, depicting the Norman Conquest of England in 1066, is a loan from France. For the first time, it will be on exhibit in London.

© Kamil Zihnioglu/Associated Press

The Bayeux Tapestry, a large embroidery that chronicles the Norman Conquest of England, on display in Bayeux, France. It will be shown at the British Museum in London from September 2026 to July 2027.

Trump and Netanyahu meet for a second time amid Gaza ceasefire talks

Watch: The BBC asks about the Trump administration's vision for Gaza

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday evening for the second time in as many days to discuss the ongoing war in Gaza.

The meeting came after Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff suggested Israel and Hamas had one remaining issue to agree on for a 60-day ceasefire deal.

Netanyahu arrived at the White House shortly after 17:00 EST (21:00 GMT) on Tuesday for the meeting, which was not open to members of the press.

Earlier on Tuesday, Netanyahu met with vice-president JD Vance. He also met with Trump for several hours during a dinner at the White House on Monday.

It marks Netanyahu's third state visit to the US since Trump's second term.

The meeting of the two leaders lasted around two hours.

Netanyahu also met with the Republican House of Representative Speaker Mike Johnson.

After that meeting, the Israeli Prime Minister said he did not believe Israel's military campaign in Gaza was done, but that negotiators are "certainly working" on a ceasefire.

"We still have to finish the job in Gaza, release all our hostages, eliminate and destroy Hamas' military and government capabilities," Netanyahu said.

Witkoff later said that Israel and Hamas were closing the gap on issues that previously prevented them from reaching a deal, and that he hoped a temporary, 60-day ceasefire will be agreed on this week.

"We had four issues and now we're down to one", Witkoff said of the sticking points in negotiations.

He added that the draft deal would also include the release of 10 hostages who are alive, and the bodies of nine who are deceased.

Before the Israeli Prime Minister's meeting with Trump on Monday, a Qatari delegation arrived at the White House and spoke with officials for several hours, Axios reported, citing a source with knowledge of the talks.

Trump told reporters on Monday evening that ceasefire talks are "going very well". But Qatar, which has played a mediator role in negotiations, said on Tuesday morning that more time was needed for negotiations.

"I don't think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this," Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said.

Before discussions resumed on Tuesday, a Palestinian source familiar with the talks told the BBC they have not made any headway.

The latest round of negotiations between Hamas and Israel began on Sunday.

The ongoing Gaza war began on 7 October 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, according to Israeli figures. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 57,500 in Gaza according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

Gemma Collins weight-loss drug advert banned

Getty Images Gemma Collins stands in a kitchen holding a cup of tea and smilingGetty Images

An Instagram post by TV personality Gemma Collins which advertised a weight-loss drug and app has been banned.

The star posted: "I'm starting this year two sizes down, thanks to Yazen's weight loss app and medication".

It is illegal to advertise prescription-only weight loss drugs and Ms Collins' was one of nine adverts banned in a crackdown by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).

Ms Collins told the ASA's investigation she accepted her posts had promoted the Yazen weight-loss service and app and she would follow guidance in future.

Yazen is a Swedish digital healthcare brand that offers users a doctor-supervised weight-loss programme combining prescription medications with lifestyle coaching.

Ms Collins posted a video advert for the brand to her Instagram on 6 January this year.

In the now-banned advert, Ms Collins describes how Yazen has helped her and stated: "I'm not telling anyone to go on this medication, but it is prescribed on the NHS."

Although the advert didn't name a specific weight-loss medication, the ASA said it made references that breached its code.

The ASA said it sought advice from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, which expressed concern that consumers were likely to be led to request a prescription weight-loss medication.

Therefore, the advert was deemed as promoting those medications to the public, breaching ASA rules.

The eight other adverts banned for promoting prescription only weight-loss medications to the public were:

  • A paid-for Meta ad for CheqUp Health, which stated "Take the first step to sustainable weight loss with CheqUp".
  • A paid-for Meta ad for HealthExpress.co.uk, which included an image of a partially visible injection pen and code breaching text
  • A paid-for Google search ad for Juniper UK, which stated "GLP-1 Weekly Weight Loss Injection" and featured an image of an injection pen.
  • A paid-for Google search ad for Phlo Clinic, including text that stated, "Get 35% off Weight Loss Order Weight Loss Treatments Online".
  • A paid-for Google ad for SemaPen, which stated "SemaPen Makes Weight Loss Easier."
  • A paid-for Meta ad for Cloud Pharmacy featuring texts messages between two friends discussing new weight-loss medications you can order online.
  • A paid-for Google search ad for pharmacyonline.co.uk, which featured text stating "Obesity Treatment Jab" and an image of a box containing a vial of liquid.
  • A paid-for Google search ad for Phlo Clinic, seen on 2 December 2024, which included text that stated "Weight loss Injections".

The ASA has ruled that none of these adverts can appear again in their current form.

After Diddy: Why hip-hop is still struggling to have its own 'MeToo' moment

BBC A treated image showing Sean 'Diddy' Combs in black and white as he performs on stage, with smoke coming across the image BBC

One day in 2010, Sean "Diddy" Combs was in the kitchen of his Beverly Hills estate with his assistant Capricorn Clark. "Let me show you something," he said, summoning his girlfriend, Casandra Ventura, into the room.

Turning to her, he issued a string of commands: "Sit down, stand up, turn around, walk over there, hand me that. Now go back." His girlfriend obeyed his every word.

"Did you see that?" said Combs to his assistant. "You won't do that. That's why you don't have a man like me."

This account, shared by Ms Clark (also known as Cassie) in her testimony during Combs' recent eight-week trial, gave a glimpse into his dynamic with his partner - and a sense of what was happening behind closed doors.

Neilson Barnard/Getty Images Sean "Diddy" Combs attending a gala with Cassie. Both wear formal black outfits and look serious
Neilson Barnard/Getty Images
Ms Ventura's lawyer said that by coming forward, she had "brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit"

Ms Ventura, an R&B singer who was previously signed to his record label, testified that throughout their long-term relationship, Combs – who was 17 years her senior – beat her, blackmailed her and coerced her into drug-fuelled sex sessions with escorts. He had, she continued, controlled her life.

Central to the trial was the claim that Combs, 55, a multimillionaire music mogul once credited with bringing rap into the mainstream, forced his partners to engage in elaborate sexual performances, known as "freak-offs", that he directed, often filmed and arranged with the help of his staff.

Last week, he was found guilty on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution. He was acquitted on the more serious charges of racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking.

After the verdict was announced, Ms Ventura's lawyer, Doug Wigdor, said that by coming forward, she had "brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit and the misconduct that has persisted for decades without repercussion".

But now, campaigners, survivors of sexual violence and insiders within the music industry are asking: Why did it take so long to hold Combs accountable?

And, in light of Hollywood's MeToo movement that uncovered and helped root out sexual harassment and abuse in the film industry, and which began nearly a decade ago - is it now time that the music industry, or more specifically, hip-hop, had a MeToo movement of its own?

'A playbook that shields predators'

Cristalle Bowen is a rapper from Chicago who was part of an all-female trio called RapperChicks. "The Diddy trial only highlights what many of us already know," she says, referring to the struggle to hold powerful people to account.

In 2022 she wrote a book about misogyny in the industry. The tagline is: Navigating Hip-Hop and Relationships in a Culture of Misogyny. "Being the token women on labels and in crews leaves you susceptible to, at the very least, name calling," she claims. "At the most… you've been abused in some way.

"When there is money involved, it becomes tricky. From hush money to stalled careers to the way we all see survivors treated… It's a difficult task."

Campaigners and industry insiders who spoke to the BBC say that sexual abuse and harassment exists across all genres in the music business, not only hip-hop. They point to a culture of silence, where they claim that predators are protected and victims risk being blacklisted, sued or fired.

Kevin Mazur/Getty Images Sean "Diddy" Combs holding up a drink in celebration
Kevin Mazur/Getty Images
Combs' label, Bad Boy Records, was praised for creating jobs and making hip-hop more mainstream. He's said to be worth around $400m (£293m)

Caroline Heldman, an academic and activist, agrees. She is co-founder of the US-based Sound Off Coalition, which advocates for the elimination of sexual violence in music, and argues that there is a history of using "threats to push out women artists who are targets of abuse by men".

"The music industry has followed a playbook for dealing with sexual abuse that shields predators, including musicians, producers, managers, executives, and other behind-the-scenes players, from liability," she claims.

Non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) – legal contracts that stop people from sharing certain agreed-upon private information – are used legitimately in the industry, for example to help protect commercial secrets. But some argue that these are being misused and can contribute to a culture of silence in cases of abuse.

"[It] makes for a very difficult decision for a lot of victims," says Arick Fudali, a New York-based lawyer. One of his clients is Dawn Richard, a singer who testified against Combs at the federal trial and has an ongoing lawsuit against him.

"I've had clients who have declined that and chosen to file their lawsuit publicly," he adds. "They can receive less money than if they had just settled privately and confidentially."

Ms Bowen argues that she has seen this happen first-hand. "Moguls write the cheques and artists need the cheques - there's usually no checks and balances when mogul money is involved."

But, there may be other reasons for not speaking out.

And in hip-hop specifically, some survivors of abuse and experts we spoke to argue that this culture of silence is exacerbated by the combined forces of racism and misogyny, and a desire to fiercely protect a genre that has created rare avenues to stardom and financial success.

A mouthpiece for liberation and resistance

Originating in the African-American and Latino communities of New York City in the 1970s, hip-hop became a mouthpiece for liberation and resistance against the authorities and social injustice.

"Hip-hop allowed young black people to tell their own stories on their own terms, it gave that generation a voice," explains Mark Anthony Neal, professor of African-American studies at Duke University, particularly when popular culture was offering a limited portrayal of black America.

It's now the most commercially successful music genre in the US, leading in album sales and streaming numbers. "Rappers are the new rock stars," says Thomas Hobbs, a writer and co-host of a hip-hop podcast, Exit the 36 Chambers. "They're the people now most likely to fill arenas."

WATCH: Video shared with BBC - Sean "Diddy" Combs holds pool parties at his Miami mansion

As an artist and businessman who ran an empire that encompassed fashion, alcohol and TV as well as his label, Bad Boy Records, Combs - who has an estimated net worth of about $400m (£293m) - has been championed not only for helping hip-hop become commercially viable but for creating jobs and opportunities, particularly for black men.

Throughout his career he has been vocal about "black excellence" – platforming achievements – as well as highlighting struggles within the black community.

This was something his legal defence raised in court, saying: "Sean Combs has become something that is very, very hard to be. Very hard to be. He is a self-made, successful, black entrepreneur."

Outside court during his trial, fans erupted in cheers after he was acquitted of the more serious charges and onlookers debated aloud whether he had been unfairly targeted. "Of course he was. He's a powerful black man," one said.

For weeks, others had been wearing and selling "Free Puff" T-shirts, after Combs' 90s stage name, next to a speaker blaring out his music.

Bryan Bedder/CP/Getty Images Sean "Diddy" Combs at a white partyBryan Bedder/CP/Getty Images
Combs, 55, a multimillionaire music mogul, was credited with bringing rap into the mainstream and hosted 'White Parties'

Sociologist Katheryn Russell-Brown has described a phenomenon she calls "black protectionism".

"Those who have managed to obtain large-scale prosperity, in spite of legal, political, economic, educational and social barriers, are given the status of racial pioneers," she wrote in her book, Protecting Our Own: Race, Crime, and African Americans, which was inspired by the OJ Simpson case.

"It is, therefore, predictable that black people as a group are suspicious when criminal charges are brought against members of its elite, protected class."

Black women in particular carry the fear that speaking out could reinforce harmful stereotypes about their community, argues Treva Lindsey, a professor in the Women's, Gender, and Sexuality Studies Department at Ohio State University who researches misogyny in hip-hop.

"When we portray hip-hop as uniquely sexist, or sexually violent, or harmful, that has repercussions for black people of all genders," she says.

The start of a reckoning?

And yet across the entertainment industry more broadly, a retrospective focus is slowly happening now, in part because of shifts in attitudes.

Recent changes to law in some US states have also enabled people to take action over alleged historic misconduct.

New York and California passed laws in 2022 called the Adult Survivors Act that for one-year only allowed people to file sexual abuse claims, regardless of when the alleged incidents took place.

Ms Ventura filed a lawsuit against Combs in November 2023, accusing him of physical and sexual abuse. It was settled the following day, and Combs denied the claims.

Reuters Casandra "Cassie" Ventura cries on the stand in this courtroom sketch.Reuters
When Cassie Ventura filed her lawsuit, she faced online abuse and criticism from some within the hip-hop world
Reuters Sean "Diddy" Combs and his defense lawyer Marc Agnifilo in this courtroom sketch
Reuters
Combs faces more than 60 civil cases from men and women accusing him of drugging or assault. He denies all allegations

He now faces more than 60 civil cases from men and women accusing him of drugging or assault, spanning his entire three-decade career.

In a statement, Combs' team has said: "No matter how many lawsuits are filed, it won't change the fact that Mr Combs has never sexually assaulted or sex trafficked anyone - man or woman, adult or minor."

He is, however, one of several hip-hop titans of the 90s and 00s to have been accused in a relatively recent wave of allegations.

Music executive and producer Antonio LA Reid, who worked with artists including Usher, Kanye West (now known as Ye) and Rihanna, was accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit filed in 2023. He denies all claims against him.

Meanwhile, Russell Simmons, co-founder of hip-hop label Def Jam Recordings, has faced allegations of violent sexual behaviour by more than 20 women since 2017, all of which he has denied.

Getty Images Close up of Russell Simmons Getty Images
Russell Simmons, co-founder of Def Jam, has been accused of sexual violence by more than 20 women since 2017. He denies all allegations

Drew Dixon, who is former vice president of Artists and Repertoire (A&R) at Arista Records, is among them. She has claimed she was abused by both Mr Simmons and Mr Reid when she worked in the music industry in the 1990s and 2000s.

She told The New York Times: "You're not just going up against the person who assaulted you," she said. "You are going against everyone who benefits from their brand and revenue stream.

"Those forces will mobilise against any accuser. It's daunting."

Backlash after speaking out

Sil Lai Abrams, who is a writer and gender violence activist, began working as an executive assistant at the Def Jam music label in 1992. She is one of the women who accused Mr Simmons of sexual assault. He has denied all allegations.

"It's harder for women of colour to speak out against abuse in the music industry," she argues - something that she believes still applies today. "[Women have] been conditioned to see abuse of power and sexual harassment as the price one pays to work in the industry."

Then there is the question of the response from the public if people do speak out. When Ms Ventura first filed her lawsuit against Combs, she faced widespread abuse. Memes on social media accused her of being a gold-digger. Some in the hip-hop industry criticised her too.

Mark Mainz/Getty Images Sean "Diddy" Combs in a suit and sunglasses, with a cigar in his mouth 
Mark Mainz/Getty Images
Combs still awaits sentencing following his recent trial

"Quit trying to expose people for money," US rapper Slim Thug said in a video shared with his two million followers on Instagram in 2023.

Only when CNN broadcast security camera footage dating back to 2016 which showed Combs grabbing, dragging and kicking Ms Ventura in the hallway of a hotel did the sentiment towards her change.

Slim Thug publicly apologised for his comments.

Combs responded in a video statement posted on Instagram, saying: "My behaviour on that video is inexcusable. I take full responsibility… I'm committed to be a better man each and every day… I'm truly sorry."

"Before the video of Combs beating her came out and people couldn't deny the evidence, people said Cassie was a liar," says Dr Nikki Lane, assistant professor in Gender, Sexuality & Feminist Studies at Duke University.

Getty Images Megan Thee Stallion wearing white stole pictured from behind on a red carpetGetty Images
Rapper Megan Thee Stallion, who was shot in the foot in 2020, pictured at the Met Gala

Yet Dr Lane argues that more still needs to change. "Black women's bodies are constantly traded upon within the culture of hip-hop as tropes to be ridiculed".

Dr Lane points to the example of rapper Megan Thee Stallion, who was shot in the foot in 2020.

Fellow rapper Tory Lanez is currently serving a 10-year sentence for the assault, but after the incident, the artist Drake was criticised for lyrics in his 2022 song Circo Loco - "This b- lie 'bout gettin' shots, but she still a stallion" - which seemed to refer to the incident.

'Some people look the other way'

There remains the question of what happens to the art – and indeed the music – when an idol is convicted of serious crimes.

R&B singer R Kelly was sentenced to 30 years in prison in 2022 for sex trafficking, racketeering and sexually abusing women and children, but years later, his music remains popular. It generated about 780 million audio streams in the US since January 2019. On Spotify, he has around 5.2 million monthly listeners.

"There are still people [who] defend R Kelly," says Mr Hobbs. "I won't be surprised if Diddy's streams, just like R Kelly's, stay high."

"There's a kind of cognitive dissonance" from fans, he argues. "These songs become so embedded in people's lives that they find it very difficult to get rid of them… [they're] part of people's DNA.

"So, I think some people are able to look the other way."

Reuters Diddy wears sunglasses, necklaces and a black top with wide collarsReuters
The Combs verdict in itself is unlikely to lead to wider changes, according to Prof Lindsey

The bigger question, perhaps, is how should the industry react? After the MeToo movement began in 2017, at least 200 prominent men accused of sexual harassment lost their jobs, and changes were made to workplace policies.

However, the Combs verdict in itself is unlikely to lead to wider changes, according to Prof Lindsey. "I think what happens in this moment is Diddy, kind of like R Kelly in the R&B black music pantheon, is seen as exceptional… and not indicative of something else," she says.

"There isn't a cultural reset where we look inward and ask: 'How does this happen?'"

But that is exactly what is missing, argue some others in the industry, including Ms Abrams. "What is lacking is a political environment against which survivors can count on to change the material conditions that allowed someone like Combs to act with impunity," she says.

Following MeToo in Hollywood, certain changes were introduced, including making intimacy coordinators more of a standard practice when filming sex scenes. Some music insiders now hope that migrates over to music video sets.

The Sound Off Coalition is calling for new company rules that require people in positions of power in music to report accusations of sexual assault.

Tangible measures are what matter, argues Dr Lane. "The only way for me to believe that there's been a reckoning would be to see changes in laws, policies, and actual business practices of the industry… [Ones] that are not based on how long Diddy goes down for."

For all the latest reaction and analysis on the verdict, you can listen to the Diddy on Trial podcast available on BBC Sounds.

Additional reporting by Florence Freeman and Fiona Macdonald

Top picture credit: Rich Polk/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.

美国农业部称将禁止中国买家购买美国农田

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美国农业部称将禁止中国买家购买美国农田

LINDA QIU
目前有26个州禁止或限制非美国人在其境内购买或投资农业用地。
目前有26个州禁止或限制非美国人在其境内购买或投资农业用地。 Loren Elliott for The New York Times
特朗普政府周二表示,鉴于对国家安全构成的威胁,将设法限制中国和外国购买美国农田。
一个包含七项内容的国家安全计划中,农业部表示将加强对外国持有美国农田情况的公开披露,对虚假申报实施更严厉的惩罚,并与国会和各州合作,禁止外国对手购买农田。
农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯在周二的新闻发布会上表示,美国农业“面临犯罪分子、政治对手和敌对政权的威胁,这些政权将我们的生活方式视为对他们自身生死攸关的严重威胁”。
此举凸显了近年来人们对外国(尤其是中国)拥有美国农田的日益关注。2023年,在一家中国公司试图在北达科他州一个军事基地附近购买农田建造玉米加工厂后,参议院以91票对7票阻止中国企业购买美国农田。2024年,拜登政府提出新规,大大增加了外国企业在具有重要国家安全意义的地点附近购买土地的难度。
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目前有26个州禁止或限制非美国人在其境内购买或投资农业用地。虽然没有联邦法律禁止这种做法,但1978年的一项法律要求外国所有者报告其持有情况——尽管存在批评意见,认为披露要求过于宽松政府的数据收集速度缓慢且容易出错。
在2023年,也就是有最新数据可查的一年,外国人拥有近1800万公顷的农田和森林。这相当于美国所有农业用地的3.5%,但比十年前增加了70%以上。加拿大人拥有的土地最多——约619万公顷,约占三分之一,而中国拥有约10万公顷。
罗林斯在新闻发布会上表示,特朗普政府也在探索如何“收回”现有的外国购买农田。
农业部计划的其他内容包括:确定并重新调整国内关键农资投入(如化肥)的生产;打击食品券等营养援助项目中的欺诈行为;加强农业科研安全;重新评估该部对外支持项目;预防动植物疾病;并帮助私营食品和农业公司保护其业务免受网络攻击。
出席发布会的还有十余名特朗普政府官员和共和党议员。

Linda Qiu是一位专门针对政治人物和公众人物言论进行事实核查的记者。她从事报道和核查公众人物言论已有近十年。

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