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Newly Discovered Bach Pieces Are the Fruits of Decades of Detective Work

A pair of organ works that scholars believe were written by a teenage Johann Sebastian Bach were premiered in Leipzig this week and added to the composer’s official catalog.

© Jens Schlueter/Agence France-Presse, via Bach Archive/AFP Via Getty Image

The two pieces were premiered by Ton Koopman and given their own numbers in the catalog of Bach’s works: BWV 1178 and BWV 1179.

由于政府停摆 美国10月就业报告将永远不会公布

19/11/2025 - 22:19

美国政府统计部门周三表示,美国10月就业状况官方报告将不会发布,因为预算僵局导致数据无法收集,

美国劳工部下属统计局发布了更新后的发布时间表,其中显示该报告已被标注为“取消”。这意味着,由于联邦政府在10月1日至11月12日期间的 43天“停摆”,10月的失业率数据将永远无法得知。美国政府此前已警告过这种情况可能发生。

由于缺乏预算,负责调查失业率的统计人员被迫休假,因此相关调查无法开展。统计局解释称,这些数据 “无法事后补采”。

不过,市场高度关注的 10月新增就业人数 预计会与11月数据一起公布。然而,这份报告要到 12月16日 才会发布,也就是说,它将晚于美国央行——联邦储备委员会(美联储) 的下一次例会。

政府停摆还导致 9月就业报告 的发布被推迟,该报告将于周四公布。

最新的官方劳动力市场数据显示,就业增长几乎陷入停滞,促使美联储连续两次降息以支撑经济活动。接下来的政策方向则更加不确定。由于缺乏官方数据,决策者难以准确判断美国经济的真实状况,信息缺口令他们左右为难。

一些央行官员担心在经济并未真正疲软的情况下,过度放任通胀上行。统计局周三发布的新日程对投资者预测未来利率走势产生了影响。在美联储上一次会议之后,大多数投资者仍预计12月会再次降息。但如今这一预期已大幅退潮,只剩下少数投资者仍相信12月会降息。

中日交锋 是否需要顾及外交礼仪

20/11/2025 - 00:10

日本首相高市早苗11月7日在日本国会就“台湾有事”进行的答辩引发的中日紧张连日来持续升级。事件一发生就在网络上“炸开了锅”,与中国驻大阪总领事薛剑的“砍头论”关系重大。现在又出现了中国外交部官员两手插兜“傲视”日本官员的场面,似乎给这起不幸福的事件平添了一点喜剧感。

高市早苗答辩次日,中国驻大阪总领事薛剑不顾外交官身份,在社交平台暗示“对于擅自闯入的肮脏的头颅,只能毫不犹豫地斩断。”引爆日本舆论愤怒。就这样,把本应关乎“国家立场”的重大问题演变成严重的“外交礼仪”。在外交层面,“失礼”通常被国际上视为是一件很严重的事。

薛剑作为中国外交官,对日本首相发言不满难道找不到其他更恰当的词汇可以表达吗?他的“斩首论”在日本社会引起的反感可谓巨大,被指为“恐怖威胁”,而这话出自堂堂外交官之口,对中国的形象有害无益。日本随后而来的抗议也很强硬,要求中方出面解释并采取应对措施,日本执政党和在野党几乎异口同声,中方如不采取相应行动,日本政府应将薛剑宣布为“不受欢迎的人”,若如此,薛剑将被驱逐出境。

薛剑在社交网络的轻率表态,把国家立场的表述转化为一场外交礼仪之争,社交网络不少人把薛剑的形象与让人耳熟能详的“战狼外交”联系起来。北京则对薛剑“斩首论”避而不谈,只是在日本如何破坏中日关系上下功夫,要求日本首相高市早苗收回涉及“台湾有事”的那段原话,并且开始采取报复行动,劝阻中国人不要去日本旅游,许多中国航空公司遵照当局旨意开始退票。每当中日关系紧张,中方总是先从打击日本旅游业着手,因为中国有许许多多喜欢去日本旅游的人。

于是日本派出外交部亚洲大洋洲局长金井正彰前往中国解释,希望缓和事态,显然双方谈不拢,这从金井正彰走出中国外交部,中国外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松手插裤兜,傲慢地目送日方官员可窥一斑。中方官员的举止和姿态被指是有意“塑造”的,刘劲松身着外交官很少穿的灰色中山装,手插裤兜,一幅“抗日”形象。

这幅画面把中日之争的要点都差一点淹没了,外界看到的是一幅中方外交官员,对上门解释的彬彬有礼的日方外交官傲视的画面。有评论称,这种做派无济于事,但破坏性极大,社交媒体上有不少人质疑,难道这就是中国外交官的形象,这派头不就是鲁迅当年讽刺过的阿Q的做派吗?

北京的官媒无疑欣赏自己外交官的表现,央视旗下的“玉渊谭天”周二在微博发布中国官员手插裤兜与日方官员走出外交部的照片和视频,视频字幕称:“日本官员低头听中方讲话,频频点头,表情严肃”。前『环球时报』总编胡锡进也在微博发了相关视频,旁边配上“哈哈大笑”的表情,不过,评论区翻车了。

一名网友说:“这个没意义,纯属自嗨”,另一名批评说:“老胡有鲁迅人物的风范,阿Q再世”;还有网友批评“我们的司长两手插兜,应该不符合外交礼仪吧。”还有人讽刺中国官员活学活用朝鲜最高领导人金正恩,并贴出金正恩双手插兜与中国总理李强谈话的照片。

日本官房长官木原稔周三 对媒体表示, 18日在北京举行金井正彰与刘劲松的会谈后,中方未与日方协调就播出金井似乎向刘鞠躬的画面一事,已向中方提出交涉,

原来两人谈的并不愉快,根据日本外务省18日晚发出的文告,两人当天的会谈针锋相对,气氛一点不轻松。中方最主要的要求是撤回高市早苗针对台湾有事的言论,而日方则再次强烈抗议中国驻大阪总领事薛剑言论“极其不适当”,要求中方采取“适当的应对措施。”

针对中方发布一系列中国游客赴日提醒,日方反驳日本国内的治安绝对没有恶化,并要求中方确保在华日本公民安全;而且日方不会撤回高市早苗相关言论,但日本政府对中国的立场没有改变。

“双手插兜”那一幕算不算作是中国官方的某种正式姿态?总之,中方对日本的压力步步升级,根据日本多家媒体报道,中国政府19日开始停止办理日本水产品进口手续,据悉,中方并没有直接向日方通报停止进口,而是使用了“未完成检查的部分暂停进口”的理由,对此,日本朝野都要求政府冷静应对。

中国外交部发言人毛宁周三则称,“当前形势下,即使日本水产品向中国出口也不会有市场”。

Stalled Contempt Inquiry Into Deportation Flights Springs Back to Life

The resurrected inquiry could finally get to the bottom of lingering questions such as: Did top Trump administration officials purposely ignore a court order?

© Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Judge James E. Boasberg’s initial order laying out the contempt investigation outlined an aggressive process for figuring out what happened inside the administration.

特朗普辱骂女记者舆论大哗

19/11/2025 - 23:34

“闭嘴,闭嘴,蠢猪!”美国总统特朗普这样辱骂一名提问的女记者,骂另外一位女记者“糟糕透顶!” 成了社交媒体覆盖性的花边新闻。周三,白宫一名匿名高官就此对法新社辩称:“自找麻烦,活该!”

有人在X惊叹:“美国总统失常了!” 后面的跟帖不以为然:“不! 他没有失常,这就是特朗普的德性!”

特朗普恼羞成怒由两件事引起,一件涉及他周二在白宫款待被视为对杀害沙特记者卡舒吉负有责任的沙特王储萨勒曼;另一件涉及他迟迟不肯公布的爱泼斯坦档案。

周五,特朗普总统在“空军一号”上被记者问到爱泼斯坦档案,他很不高兴地表示对其性犯罪一无所知,然后,彭博社记者凯瑟琳.露西向总统提问:

“如果档案中没有任何罪证,您为何不公布与身败名裂的性犯罪者爱泼斯坦有关的资料?”

根据法新社报道:特朗普用手指指着这位女记者:“闭嘴,闭嘴,蠢猪!”

星期二,特朗普在白宫接待沙特王储萨勒曼,ABC记者玛丽.布鲁斯就特朗普家族企业是否与沙特的商业网络存在利益冲突后,又质问沙特王储萨勒曼是否参与了2018年对沙特记者卡舒吉的杀害。

布鲁斯问:“美国情报机构认定您主导了对一名记者的残忍杀害。遇害者家属对您出现在椭圆形办公室极为愤怒。美国人为什么应该相信您?”

特朗普否认与沙特王室存在任何利益冲突:“我和特朗普集团没有任何关联。”然后为他的贵宾萨勒曼辩护,称王储“对那件事毫不知情。”特朗普指责记者:“你不必问这样的问题让我们的客人难堪。”

这位记者几分钟后再次就爱泼斯坦事件询问特朗普总统,特朗普打断记者的话,称其是“糟糕的记者”。

特朗普称记者所在的ABC制造“假新闻”,并称爱泼斯坦丑闻是“骗局”,他要求美国联邦通信委员会采取行动吊销ABC的牌照。随后转向记者:“你不能再提问了。”

特朗普当晚隆重设宴欢迎沙特王储萨勒曼,数周前与特朗普闹翻的马斯克首次重返白宫出席盛宴。出席晚宴的还有英伟达总裁黄仁勋,苹果总裁蒂姆库克,知名球星C罗等一众名人,曾被视为下令派遣突击队赶赴伊斯坦布尔肢解记者卡舒吉的沙特王储萨勒曼,就这样在特朗普总统和一众名人的簇拥下被“漂白”了。

至于爱泼斯坦档案,美国国会周二已批准予以公布,这一事件还在美国发酵、燃烧。

Mexico Is Now the United States’ Top Buyer

For first time in at least 30 years, the United States has exported more to Mexico than Canada, U.S. government data show, in a sign of how much North American trade has consolidated.

© Gabriel V. Cárdenas for The New York Times

Trucks moving goods from the United States to Mexico in February. “Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner,” said Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s economy minister.

美推俄乌战争新方案 传要求乌克兰让出更多东部领土作交换

19/11/2025 - 23:09

美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)政府近期与俄罗斯密切协作,草拟一份28点的乌俄停战新方案,要求乌克兰让出目前仍掌控的部分东部领土,以换取美国及欧洲对乌克兰的安全保障。

除此之外,方案还包含削弱乌军规模、放弃关键武器、调整军援,甚至涉及乌克兰内部语言与宗教地位等高度敏感条款,引发基辅强烈反弹。

根据美国媒体Axios的独家报导,美国官员透露,特朗普团队的新方案将赋予俄罗斯对卢甘斯克(Luhansk)与顿涅茨克(Donetsk)(统称顿巴斯地区)的“完全事实控制权”,即便乌克兰仍掌握约12%该区领土。同时,乌军撤出后的部分区域将被视为非军事化地带,俄军不得部署兵力。

此外,赫尔松(Kherson)与札波罗热(Zaporizhzhia)两地将大致冻结现况,部分区域由俄罗斯归还,细节再议。更具争议的是,美国与部分国家将承认克里米亚及顿巴斯为俄罗斯领土,但乌克兰不需正式承认。

这名美国官员向Axios表示,白宫内部认为乌克兰若持续作战,“最终仍可能失去更多土地”,“因此谈判对乌方更有利”。

英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)随后揭露,该方案由现任与卸任的美俄官员共同草拟,美国政府特使威特科夫(Steve Witkoff)近日已在美国迈阿密向乌克兰国安会秘书、前国防部长乌梅洛夫(Rustem Umerov)逐条说明内容。

三名知情人士向《金融时报》表示,草案要求乌克兰交出所有剩余的东部顿巴斯领土、将乌军规模减半、放弃部分长程与关键火力武器,并逐步撤除美国对乌军事援助,使乌克兰可能在长期安全上更加脆弱。

除此之外,草案甚至提议让俄语成为乌克兰官方语言、为俄罗斯东正教分支赋予官方地位,明显呼应俄罗斯多年政治诉求。

报导援引消息人士形容草案“明显向俄方倾斜”、“对普京(Vladimir Putin)非常舒适”。乌克兰官员则直言,多项条款“迫使乌克兰实质放弃主权”。

Axios指出,特朗普特使威特科夫过去数周与俄罗斯主权基金负责人、俄国特使季米特里耶夫(Kirill Dmitriev)在迈阿密进行密集会谈。季米特里耶夫向Axios表示,与特朗普团队会晤三天后“对方案成功抱持乐观”,因为“这次俄罗斯的立场终于被真正听见”。

Axios亦报导,卡达与土耳其在草案制定与美国调解过程中扮演关键角色,相关官员甚至出席威特科夫与乌梅洛夫的会晤。

然而,当威特科夫原定在安卡拉(Ankara)与乌克兰总统泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)会面时,行程因乌方立场转趋保留而延后。美国官员表示,泽伦斯基“正在退回其国安顾问先前与美方达成的部分理解”。

乌方官员向Axios强调,乌梅洛夫在迈阿密并未收到正式书面提案,且泽伦斯基拒绝接受涉及领土让渡的内容。另有美国官员指出,乌克兰国内近期针对部分总统顾问的腐败调查,也使安卡拉会面被迫延后。

白宫同时已开始向欧洲盟国简报该计画细节。美国官员向Axios表示,相信“有机会让乌克兰与欧洲接受方案”,但各方必须“务实与现实”。

根据美国《国会山报》(The Hill)报导,俄罗斯国防部指控乌军本周以四枚美制ATACMS战术飞弹攻击俄南部城市沃罗涅日(Voronezh),并称飞弹已全数遭拦截,但坠落碎片造成养老院与孤儿院屋顶损毁。

乌方前一天宣布使用ATACMS攻击俄境内军事目标,称其为“重大进展”。该型飞弹由拜登政府于2023年提供,射程可达190英里。

此外,乌方近期要求美国提供“战斧”(Tomahawk)巡弋飞弹,特朗普承认他正在考虑,但尚未承诺。

据美国ABC新闻报导,特朗普政府已派陆军部长德瑞斯科尔(Daniel P. Driscoll)与美军高层赴基辅,与泽伦斯基及乌方军政高层讨论可能的停火与和平框架。德瑞斯科尔此次行程是由特朗普与副总统范斯(JD Vance)商议后敲定。

俄方则由总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)表示,没有安排俄方与德瑞斯科尔会面。

US military officials in Ukraine for talks on ending war

Reuters US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll (left) shakes hands with Ukrainian Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal in Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo: 19 November 2025Reuters
US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll (left) held talks with Ukrainian Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal on Wednesday

Senior Pentagon officials have arrived in Ukraine to "discuss efforts to end the war" with Russia, the US military has said.

The team, led by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Thursday when he returns from a trip to Turkey.

Reports began surfacing on Wednesday that the US and Russia had prepared a new peace plan, containing major concessions from Ukraine. Neither Washington nor Moscow has officially confirmed the plan.

Earlier in the day, at least 25 people were killed in a Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine's western city of Ternopil, officials there said. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In Kyiv, Driscoll is joined by the US Army's chief of staff Gen Randy George, top US army commander in Europe Gen Chris Donahue, and Srg Maj of the Army Michael Weimer.

"Secretary Driscoll and team arrived this morning in Kyiv on behalf of the administration on a factfinding mission to meet Ukrainian officials and discuss efforts to end the war," Army spokesman Col David Butler said in a statement.

Driscoll was pictured meeting Ukrainian Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal on Wednesday.

Driscoll and Gen George are the most senior US military officials to hold talks in the Ukrainian capital since President Donald Trump took office in January.

The Ukrainian authorities have not publicly commented on what issues are being discussed with the Americans.

However, one Ukrainian official told CBS, the BBC's US media partner, that the focus would be on the military situation on the ground - in addition to plans for a possible ceasefire.

The official - who was not named - said: "Presidents Zelensky and Trump have already agreed to stop the conflict along the existing lines of engagement, and there are agreements on granting security guarantees".

It comes as a number of outlets are reporting that the US and Russia have privately drawn up proposals on how to end the war.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Axios, the Financial Times and Reuters reported that the plans call for Kyiv to give up some territories and weapons, as well as to significantly cut Ukraine's Armed Forces.

Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev are believed to have been involved in working on the 28-point peace plan.

The BBC has asked the White House and a representative for Witkoff to comment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov appeared to downplay the reports.

"In this case, we have no additional innovations to what we call 'the spirit of Anchorage'," he told Russia's state-run media on Wednesday - referring to the August summit between Putin and Trump in the US state of Alaska.

Any agreements reached during the one-day meeting have not been made public.

President Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out any territorial concessions to Russia.

Kyiv and its Western allies, including the US, have been calling for an immediate ceasefire along the vast front line, but Moscow has ruled that out, repeating demands that Ukraine says amount to its de facto capitulation.

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow's pre-conditions for a peace deal - including ceding territory, tough curbs on the size of Ukraine's military and the country's neutrality - had not changed since Putin laid them out two months before the full-scale invasion.

Home secretary hints at shake-up of 'irrational' policing structure

BBC Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood giving a speech on Wednesday. BBC
The home secretary was talking at a conference of police leaders on Wednesday

The Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has hinted that she is thinking of changing how policing in England and Wales is organised.

She told a conference of police leaders "the structure of our police forces, if is, if we are honest, irrational".

Mahmood said "disparities in performance" meant that policing in England and Wales was a "postcode lottery".

Some police chiefs want the number of forces to be reduced. Currently, there are 43 in England and Wales.

The government is expected to publish a White Paper on the future of policing next month.

The home secretary was talking at a conference of police leaders organised by the National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC) and the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners (APCC).

Last week the Home Office announced that the role of Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) would be abolished. Mahmood told delegates on Wednesday the position "had not worked".

She told the conference "I was a reformer at the Ministry of Justice. I will be a reformer at the Home Office too."

Mahmood told the delegates - mostly senior officers and Police and Crime Commissioners: "The structure of our police forces is, if we are honest, irrational.

"We have loaded critical functions like the national police air service and vetting onto local forces, drawing attention away from neighbourhood policing.

"We have 43 forces tackling criminal gangs who cross borders, and the disparities in performance in forces across the country have grown far too wide, giving truth to the old store that policing in this country is a postcode lottery."

She said the government's plans would be laid out in a White Paper due in December, saying she wanted to see "that national policing is world class without distracting local forces from neighbourhood policing".

"The detail will follow," she said. She did not stay behind to answer questions.

Some police chiefs favour a reduction in the number of forces. In July, Gavin Stephens, NPCC chair, said: "A smaller number of police forces, supported by a national policing organisation, would enable us to make decisions far quicker and maximise funding to invest in technology and our workforce."

But some local PCCs have opposed the idea of force mergers. Last week the Policing Minister Sarah Jones said the role would be abolished.

PCCs are elected officials, but elections have often had a limited turnout. The role was created by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2012.

The home secretary said in her speech on Wednesday: "I believe the position of a Police and Crime Commissioner, unfortunately, has not worked.

"Without necessary investment in creating a public profile, too many voters were unaware of the existence of the position, or its occupant."

Police forces are also waiting for the latest funding settlement which is due in early December.

Paul Sanford, Chief Constable of Norfolk Constabulary and Chair of the NPCC Finance Coordination Committee, said: "Policing is in a state of financial distress.

"We are seeing declining financial resilience across all forces."

Israeli strikes across Gaza kill 25 Palestinians, health ministry says

Anadolu via Getty Images An injured Palestinian girl has her head bandaged at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City following an Israeli strike (19 November 2025)Anadolu via Getty Images
Some of the casualties were brought to al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City

At least 25 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip, the Hamas-run health ministry has said.

Ten people, including a woman and a young girl, were killed when a ministry of religious endowments building in the eastern Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City was hit, according to rescuers.

The Israeli military said it had struck "Hamas terrorist targets" after it said gunmen had opened fire towards an area where its soldiers were operating in the southern city of Khan Younis, in violation of the five-week-old ceasefire agreement.

There was no immediate comment from Hamas.

The flare-up of violence comes after the UN Security Council passed a resolution that endorsed US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan to end two years of devastating war.

Mahmoud Bassal, a spokesman for Gaza's Hamas-run Civil Defence agency, told the BBC that Israeli air, drone and artillery strikes hit several locations in Gaza City and Khan Younis shortly after sunset on Wednesday.

The attacks marked a sharp escalation after several days of relative calm, he said.

The Civil Defence reported that the strike in Zeitoun caused severe damage to the religious endowments ministry's building and surrounding structures, and posted a video showing its rescue workers appearing to find two people buried under rubble.

Photos published by the Anadolu news agency meanwhile showed the bodies of three young children reportedly recovered from the scene.

In a separate incident in Gaza City, one person was killed and several others were wounded when a drone struck a group of people at Shejaiya junction on Salah al-Din Street, Gaza's main north-south road, according to Mr Bassal.

He said another person was killed when a tank shell struck a house belonging to the Balboul family in Shejaiya's Mushtaha Street, which is also in eastern Gaza City.

In Khan Younis, three people were killed and a number were wounded in a strike on a group inside a sports club run by the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (Unrwa), he added.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that "several terrorists opened fire toward the area where IDF soldiers are operating in Khan Younis" earlier on Wednesday.

"This action constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement. No IDF injuries were reported," it added. "In response, the IDF began striking Hamas terrorist targets across the Gaza Strip."

Israeli public broadcaster Kan cited a security source as saying the targets of the strikes were the commander of the Zeitoun Battalion of Hamas's military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and the commander of its naval force.

On Monday, the UN Security Council passed a resolution that sought to shore up the fragile ceasefire, which took effect on 10 October.

Member states authorised the creation of a transitional governance body called the Board of Peace, which will be chaired by President Trump, and a temporary International Stabilisation Force (ISF), which will be tasked with ensuring "the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip".

Trump hailed the resolution as "a moment of true historic proportion".

A Hamas statement reiterated that the group would not give up its weapons without a Palestinian state, arguing its fight against Israel was legitimate "resistance".

Israel's ambassador to the UN stressed the importance of disarmament, saying that his country would "not stop or let up" until Hamas no longer presented "a threat".

The Israeli military launched an offensive in Gaza in response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.

At least 69,500 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, including 280 during the ceasefire, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

Nvidia Earnings Show Profit Jumped 65% to $31.9 Billion

The company, which makes the computer chips essential to the artificial intelligence boom, also said revenue in its recent quarter rose to $57 billion.

© Eric Lee for The New York Times

Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, made a bet on chips for artificial intelligence that has turned his company into a Silicon Valley giant.

Alberta Invokes Last-Resort Constitutional Clause to Shield Trans Laws From Challenges

The western province’s conservative government has invoked a rarely used clause in Canada’s Constitution to shield its bills limiting transgender rights from legal challenges.

© Amber Bracken for The New York Times

Danielle Smith, Alberta’s conservative premier, has framed the enactment of the bills as a matter of children’s safety.

欧盟新防务计划:推进军事“申根化” 拟为部队推行统一通行证

19/11/2025 - 21:02

美联社消息称,周三(11月19日),欧盟推出了一揽子新的防务计划,旨在在冲突发生时,使坦克和部队能够更快地穿越27国成员国之间的多重边界。自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来,欧盟一直紧张关注东部边境爆发的全面战争。近几个月,由于与俄罗斯相关的神秘无人机入侵事件频发,欧盟的紧张情绪进一步加剧。

欧盟委员会提出的这一军事机动性计划,将投资176.5亿欧元,用于改善500个已识别为军队通行瓶颈的关键通道。目前,跨欧盟国家运输坦克仍需逐国获得许可。而即使拿到通行证,坦克也可能被迫走绕行路线,以避开无法承受其重量的道路或桥梁。更严重的是,欧盟审计院几个月前指出,有坦克因为重量超过道路交通规则限值而未获允许在某些成员国境内移动。这份对军队机动性的批评报告指出,现有障碍严重影响军事行动效率。

这一防务计划标志着地缘政治的重大转变。

欧盟的成立初衷是为了避免两次世界大战的惨剧重演,通过经济和政治上的紧密合作绑定欧洲各国。然而,自俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来,该联盟越来越关注防务与安全问题。欧盟防务专员安德里乌斯·库比柳斯表示,欧洲情报机构警告称,俄罗斯可能在未来三到四年内对欧盟发动攻击,或测试北约《第五条款》的承诺——即对任何成员国的攻击都将被视为对所有成员国的攻击。

军事申根化:欧盟拟推行“统一通行证”

为解决这些瓶颈,欧盟委员会提议设立一张可在整个欧盟范围内通行的“统一通行证”,避免繁琐的多国许可申请,有些申请甚至需提前45天提交。据称,这项简化措施可将部队和装备的运输时间缩短至“三天”。欧盟最终目标是建立“军事申根”,参考欧洲的无边境旅行区(由25个欧盟成员国以及列支敦士登、冰岛、挪威和瑞士组成)。

在紧急情况下,委员会还计划制定明确规则,例如设立优先通行许可,避免通行受阻。布鲁塞尔还提出建立“团结机制”,将民用和军用物资(如卡车)集中调配,各成员国可方便地使用。为确保措施落实,欧盟计划定期进行压力测试,验证各基础设施的通行能力。

专家指出,爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和芬兰等东部前沿国家需要与法国、德国等大陆国家建立更深层次的基础设施联系。

新计划还规定,每个欧盟国家将派代表加入“军事机动运输小组”,以在和平时期、紧急情况和冲突时简化军事部署。审计机构曾在今年2月警告,欧盟的军事机动性过小且管理不善,难以有效应对危机。

未来十年,欧盟将在防务上花费约3.4万亿欧元

委员会同时公布了《防务工业转型路线图》,旨在简化和统一欧盟防务工业的法规,并集中投资于国内武器、车辆、卫星、弹药的生产。

这一防务计划和路线图,均依托于欧盟委员会的《2030战备战略》,以应对俄罗斯威胁。委员会估计,今年欧盟防务开支将达3920亿欧元(约4570亿美元),几乎是四年前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰前的两倍。

预计未来十年,欧盟将在防务上花费约3.4万亿欧元(约4万亿美元)。为此,委员会拟建议将欧盟长期防务与航天预算提高至1310亿欧元(约1530亿美元)。

欧盟成员国被鼓励在联盟内部购买大部分军事装备,与欧洲供应商合作,必要时由欧盟协助降低成本、加快订单。在路线图中,只有当成本、性能或供应延迟不允许时,成员国才可从国外采购设备。

特朗普政府已明确表示,将优先保障美国本土和亚洲的安全,并告知欧洲国家必须自行保护自己及乌克兰的未来安全

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