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海边的西塞罗|大清真的是“错过”了工业革命么?

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也许不是因为骄傲无知,而是恰恰是看的太明白。

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如果我们单以历史的后见之明来看,清朝在“康乾盛世”之后措施发生工业革命最好时机的故事,似乎是非常让人叹息的。

从康熙登基到乾隆退位,中国经历了一段近一百四十年的休养生息时代,人口突破三亿,版图面积仅次于元朝,政局却保持整体稳定,巅峰时代国库存银高达八千万两,工农业总值占到了全世界的三分之一。这个国力是巅峰时代的大英帝国都望尘莫及的(1870年时候,大英帝国GDP占全球的24.28%),翻遍史册,可能也就二战之后的老美,趁着其他列强都被打的稀烂的时候可堪一比。

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可是我们却又知道,清朝在达到这样的巅峰之后并没有抓住机会突破农业社会的“天花板”,而是掉头一路向下,在鸦片战争洋人打上国门之前 ,就自己内部先出了问题,遭遇了“嘉道中衰”。尤其是转折,似乎还是清朝统治者的自选动作——1793年(乾隆五十八年),英政府由于想通过与清王朝谈判开拓中国市场,派特使乔治·马戛尔尼等人访问中国。使团在递交国书之余,为了显示国力,带来了英国当时工业革命、科技革命和军事革命的全套最新成果,从蒸汽机、棉纺机、梳理机、织布机、地球仪、天文仪,到当时英国规模最大并装备有110门大口径火炮的“君主号”战舰模型一应俱全。

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CDT 档案卡
标题:大清真的是“错过”了工业革命么?
作者:小西cicero
发表日期:2025.9.9
来源:微信公众号“三月云”
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

以今人的眼光看,这些炫目的新鲜玩意儿理应对乾隆产生极大的触动,让他愿意与西方接触,向他们学习——就像百年前俄罗斯彼得大帝震撼于西欧的文化昌明,而锐意发动改革一样。

但历史现实却是乾隆高傲的拒绝了这个接触请求,还回了一封夸耀“天朝”国力强大、无所不有、原不需与外夷互通有无的凡尔赛式信件给英王乔治。

这就让人不免叹息了——乾隆皇帝是不是老糊涂了,为什么要没有察觉并抓住这个送上门来的变革机会呢?

我原先也觉得,清朝在顶峰时的这种措施,是号称“十全老人”的乾隆自身的故步自封与颟顸无知所致。但前几天读了一份很有趣的史料,突然觉得,乾隆可能没我们现象中那么傻。他未必没有看到英国人带来的礼物中的危险与机遇。只不过,他所治下的那个帝国,实在是登不上工业时代的滚滚巨轮了——非不知也,实不能也。

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这个史料是嘉庆四年(公元1799年)的,这一年其实非常特殊,因为年初正月时太上皇乾隆驾崩了,以装孙子的态度当儿皇帝的嘉庆终于可以放手实行真正的亲政。所以他立刻打出了“咸与维新”的旗号,鼓励士民工商都给自己上书提意见,搞百花齐放,让大家一起给已经出现衰落势头的帝国想出路。

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可是这个“嘉庆维新”,搞的实则非常滑稽——三月,两广总督吉庆给嘉庆上了一份奇葩折子,称:“广东采挖黎地石碌铜斤,试办一年,额已短缺,而且该处滨海临洋,多人前采,恐致滋生事端,似应亟行停止;广东省局鼓铸,仍请运用滇铜。”

翻译一下,就是广东炼铜需要铜矿,原先开了个矿,可现在吉庆却奏请要把它关了,以后依然要从云南运矿过来炼铜。

我相信如果现在有个地方官,敢用给上级打这样一份脑袋疑似被门挤了的报告上去,肯定是挨处分没跑了。可是吉庆的报告打上去后,嘉庆的朱批却大加赞赏:“所办甚妥,所见极是。仍用滇铜,不必开采。

请注意,这是嘉庆上台后第一次对工矿业表明态度,话虽不多,但观点鲜明,态度非常坚决——就是要严格限制,越少越好。

了解工业革命历史的人都知道,开矿是工业革命的发轫之处,英国工业革命的那些玩意儿,什么铁路、蒸汽机,最早不都是在矿山里用出来的么?可为什么嘉庆却对此畏之如虎呢?

这个问题,很快得到了嘉庆本人更详细的解答:嘉庆四年四月,有潘世恩、苏廷禄两位富商,找到门路向上了份呈请,想在直隶邢台境内开个矿采银。

在通过官府层层递交的“呈请”当中,这两位尚处“萌芽状态”的资本家挖空心思,极力想说服皇帝批准他们的计划——现如今不是,川楚白莲教作乱,朝廷不是缺银子么?我们开矿采银,给您多缴税,也解决了直隶滋生人丁的就业问题,这是官民两便的大好事啊!

可对这样一份努力“急朝廷所急”的呈请,嘉庆的批复却异常严厉:

“朕恭阅世宗皇帝朱批谕旨,于开矿一事,深以言利扰民为戒,圣训煌煌,可为万世法守。朕每绎思庄诵,志之于心,因无人以此陈请未经明谕。今有宛平民潘世恩、汲县民苏廷禄,呈请在直隶邢台等县境内开采银矿,给事中明绳辄据以入告,故特降旨宣示,使知朕意。

夫矿藏于山,非数人所能采取,亦非数月所能毕事,必且千百为群,经年累月,设立棚厂,凿砂煎炼,以谋利之事,聚游手之民,生衅滋事,势所必然,纵使官为经理,尚难约束多人,若听一二商民集众自行开采,其弊将无所不至,此在边省犹不可行,而况近依畿辅!他府犹不可行,而况地近大名!各该处向有私习邪教之人,此时方禁约之不暇,顾可听其纠集耶!且国家经费,自有正供常赋,川陕余匪指日即可殄平,国用本无虞不足,安可穷搜山泽,计及锱铢!

潘世恩、苏廷禄自因现在开捐,揣摩迎合,觊觎矿苗,思擅其利,乃敢藉纳课为词,以小民而议及帑项,实属不安本分。俱著押递本籍,交地方官严行管束,毋许出境滋事。

至给事中明绳,若系巡城,只当听断词讼,遇有此等呈词,亦应饬驳,况伊并非巡城,且系宗室,今以开矿事冒昧转奏,明系商人嘱托,冀幸事成分肥,殊属卑鄙。朕广开言路,非开言利之路也。聚敛之臣,朕断不用。”

在这份公开的上谕当中,嘉庆就干脆把话挑明了:

朕为什么要限制开矿?因为只要一开设矿场,“游手之民”就会聚集在一起“生衅滋事”,即便你让我深度介入管控(纵使官为经理)也管不过来那么多人啊!这种事儿其他地方我都不能允许,何况是在直隶这种皇城根底下?所以潘世恩、苏廷禄这两个草民不识本分,马上押回本籍,交地方官严加看管。至于替他们上奏的给事中明绳,敢趁着朕鼓励“咸与维新”、让大家提意见的机会上这种折子?殊属卑鄙!聚敛之臣,朕断不用!

你梳理嘉庆的这个思路,会发现他在自己逻辑中想的还是很明白的——川楚白莲教起义让清廷耗银上亿两才得以平定,地区一战掏空大清的家底。但清王朝从这场祸乱中吸取的主要教训是什么呢?那就是朝廷一定要执行比之前更加彻底的将老百姓打成原子化的政策,不能让“游手之民”聚在一起,否则就会“生事”。而工商业相比农业,天然是更需要人群的大规模聚集协作的。

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所以开矿牟利这种主意,在“大明白”嘉庆开来,就是饮鸩止渴,哪怕挣钱也不能搞!

更有意思的是,嘉庆在这段上谕的前面,其实还提了几句他爷爷“世宗皇帝”(雍正)的旧例,这就提示我们关注了一个事实:

清朝除了有备受诟病的“闭关锁国”的海禁传统以限制商业外,还有另外一个同样悠久的矿禁传统以限制工业。这一套“双管齐下”的“祖宗之法”,已经提前把中国良性而丝滑的走向工业化的通路堵了个瓷实。

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限制民间开矿这个传统,最早可能起源与明代万历年间,是为了方便皇帝“专利”而设置的,到了防止“聚众滋事”如防贼的清代,则更加严厉。清初的时候,康熙皇帝曾经“开放搞活”,松弛过一段时间的矿禁,但康熙在自述目的时,说的很有意思:“(开矿者)皆系无室可居,无田可耕,乏产贫民,每日所得锱铢,以为养生之计,若将此等乏产贫民尽行禁止,则伊等何以为生。”

也就是说,与英国工业革命是完成农业积累后的有产精英进行投资刚好相反,在仁慈的康熙的理解当中,他驰矿禁的主要目的,是为了给走投无路、穷的过不下去的“乏产贫民”一条生路。是一种为了维持稳定而搞的权宜之计。

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这种理解就必然导致了一个结果:当工矿业的发展规模达到一定程度,脱离“糊口经济”之后,朝廷一定会进行限制打压,因为你们肚子已经填饱了,再发展就属于“非分”了。

果然,到了雍正时代,矿禁复严。勤劳的雍正明确指出:“非人力种植可得,焉保其生生不息?今日有利,聚之甚易,他日绝利,则散之甚难”。因而,对广东、湖南、广西等省地方督抚疏请开矿的奏请,他“均不准行,或严旨切责”。

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所以从这种反复当中,我们可以看到清朝对作为工业革命萌芽的矿业的态度——可以搞一点,但只以糊口为准,绝对不能搞大了,搞大了多事。

于是我们就能理解,为什么乾隆会对着送上门来工业革命成果无动于衷了,精明的乾隆,未必看不出这些机器背后蕴藏的变革时代的巨大力量。但问题在于,这种爆发式的力量,恰恰是他的列祖列宗为了“宗庙社稷”所要严格防范的。

清朝,或者更确切的说,整个古代中国两千年的帝制体系,之所以鼓励“农本商末”,最重要的原因就是要让其统治的臣民保持在一种分散的、原子化的状态下。这样才能够方便统御。

而与之相比,无论是航海时代的商业贸易、还是工业革命中的工业生产,都必然带来大量的人口聚集。这是乾隆手中那套体系所无法兼容、应对的。所以哪怕他能看出这是一个增强国力、让民众富足的机会,帝国也必须无视甚至拒绝它。

这,应该才是乾隆错过工业革命的根本原因。不是他不聪明,不开眼看世界。而可能恰恰是因为他太聪明了,意识到“臣妾真的做不到”。——工业革命的基础逻辑与这个延续两千年的帝国是“不兼容”。

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参照同时代的英国,我们会发现一个有趣的现象,两国的人口暴增都给产业升级、实现工业革命这种更大规模的社会协作提供了条件。

但与能利用这个机会的英国相反,清朝因为“生齿日繁”,反而进入了“越滋生人丁越穷,越穷越容易闹事儿,越容易闹事儿越要限制人群聚集、不让搞工商业,越不让搞工商业就越穷。”的死循环当中。于最终清朝和整个中国两千年帝制,是在这种死循环中窒息的。

写到这里,不得不一声长叹,在中学历史课上,你一定背过英国的光荣革命、法国的大革命等等制度改革“为资本主义工商业的发展扫清了道路”,这句话很多人会背,但未必能明了其中的深意。昨天的文章中我们说,科技的革新给各个文明带来的机遇未必是公平的。而从今天讲的这段历史当中,我们能体察到这种不公平为什么会产生——

有时候,科技即便送上门来,摆在那里,让你去学,你也未必能学、敢学。因为科技不是死物,它需要有机的连入整个社会才能发挥其作用。而很多时候,新兴科技的连入会和社会中存在的固有机制发生“排异反应”,遭遇这种排异反映的社会,即便认识到了这项技术的重要,被时代所抛弃也是一个必然。

而清王朝由盛转衰的死因,其实就在于此——这个王朝,并不死于乾隆或其子孙骄傲或短视,而死于其对科技革命无法克服的排异。

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本文4000字,感谢读完,喜欢请三连,多谢。

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三月云|什么是真正的历史周期律?一个女权主义的视角

CDT 档案卡
标题:什么是真正的历史周期律?一个女权主义的视角
作者:三月vulcanus
发表日期:2025.9.9
来源:微信公众号“三月云”
主题归类:女权主义
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

什么是历史周期律?历史周期律指的是古代王朝总是逃不过治乱兴衰的魔咒。王朝初年,生机勃发,王朝末年,战乱不已。于是不停地进行朝代更替、循环往复,好似一个永远跳不出去的周期。

对于这一历史规律,惯常的叙述和解释无非是说什么阶级、贫富云云,然而这些传统的视角却无异于隔靴搔痒,远未触及到这一现象的本质。本文将以一个女权主义的视角,为封建时代下的“历史周期律”提供一个全新的、并且更具有说服力的解释——性别比的不断紊乱和调整,才是周期律的真正本质。

首先,提出一个公理:对于人们而言,生存是最重要的,而生存就需要相应的资源。因此,资源的生产与分配是社会矛盾冲突的核心原因。

而生产,包括两大方面:物质生产和人类本身的生产。很多人会认为,古代女性负责人口再生产,田力负责物质再生产。但古代所谓的“男耕女织”是纯粹的谎言,正如现代的“农民伯伯”一样。事实上,女性是人类再生产的全部承担者和物质再生产的主要承担者。

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▲陈宝良《中国妇女通史 明代卷》

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▲从古至今,女性都是物质生产劳动的主要承担者,以及生育劳动的全部承担者。

最有价值的资源永远是能够生产资源的资源。因此,在古代,这个最大、最有价值的资源是什么?就是女人。

所以,在男权制度体系下,生了田力就会获得资源,生了女人就会变成资源。一代代如此。

这就是他们的底层世界观。就好像现在在各个网络平台上,我们还可以看到他们沾沾自喜、津津乐道地评论:“邻居屯粮我屯枪,邻居就是我粮仓”。而在封建时代,枪和粮分别指的是谁,显而易见。

不得不说,集短真是太聪明了竟然能思考到如此深度,但可惜的是,集短们全都是聪明人……当所有人都希望自己是掠夺者,害怕自己是生产者时,我们可以想想,最终会发生什么?他们硬生生造出了一个黑暗森林,或者说囚徒困境。如果每个人都选择了“屯枪”,并且一直都在拼命地屯,还害怕“枪”不够多,那么,粮呢?

不要忘了前面的公理,掠夺只是手段,最终的目的是获得资源来生存下去,也就是得到“粮”。所以,粮呢?

为了争夺资源→生男→越生男,资源越少→资源越少,争夺和冲突越激烈→越生男→冲突越激烈→越生男……最后的结果其实是:邻居屯枪我屯枪,bro鲜血流满仓。当性别比紊乱到了极致,自然会迎来矛盾惨烈的总爆发——千里无鸡鸣,生民百遗一。

而这一切的背后是什么?是按性别把人界定成枪和粮的制度,是把田力视为掠夺者,却把女性视为资源的短视和愚蠢。同时,他们为什么会肆无忌惮地造出这么多过剩的田力?当然是因为这不是由他们自己生产的,当然不会替生产者的生理做任何考虑。如果是生产者自己来规划,可能会发生这种情况吗?

再说一遍,把田力视为枪,把女人视为粮,这是倒反天罡的,也是对自然规律最大、最恶劣的挑衅,所以也会迎来最惨烈的报复和后果。如此愚蠢的认知,制造如此愚蠢认知的制度体系,是一切问题的根源。

我们可以看看史料,各个王朝末期和战乱前夕的性别比:

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▲以女性为100,这个性别比最高达到了9733:100。这已经不像是人类能达到的数字了......

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为什么会造成如此变态的比例?那当然是因为…..

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所以,这样肆无忌惮的暴行,最终会导致什么后果呢?

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▲来自西安交通大学的研究(姜全保和李波,2011)

清代陈盛韶《问俗录》里也指出:由于男多女少,大量男子成婚困难,于是“无室家之匪民,掳抢械斗,喜于从乱”。

喜欢把儿子当成匪培养,那自然如你所愿,遍地都是别人家的匪,社会也自然就乱了。

在古代,什么是盛世?只要没有出现大规模的饥荒战乱,就是少有的盛世。而乱世则是贯穿整个封建时代的主线。为什么?我想我已经解释清楚了。明明是违背自然规律导致的一轮轮的自我崩溃,却自我催眠成“本该如此”的所谓历史周期律。可笑。

实际上,女性本来应该是族群中负责筛选的群体,控制正常的性别比例,不该出现的在经期就应当流出去。但在男权社会中,女性的这个筛选能力无法正常发挥,生育权不属于自己,最终造成田力数量激增和严重的性别比失衡。

于是,本来应该流出来变成月经的东西,却错误地变成了人,那自然会在一些年后于别的地方重新变成一摊经血。

这就是战争的本质——战场是一块巨大的卫生巾。

但战争只是男权对月经的拙劣模仿,因为一个筛选和数量控制发生在事先,水到渠成,另一个筛选和数量控制则发生在事后,要付出天量的代价和成本。

时间来到现代,为什么战乱相比于古代断崖式下降,人们的生活越来越好了?很多人说,因为科技进步,生产力发展了。当然。但这只是直接原因,并不是根本原因。因为这无法解释,生产力发展和科技进步本身的原因又是什么?为什么封建时代几千年生产力都没有明显的增长,而偏偏是近几十年,人类生产力的进步却已经超过了过去所有时代生产力总和的千倍不止?

实际上,技术进步永远要发生在一定的社会制度体系中,那些促进创新的制度才会最大程度地发展生产力。我们可以看到,只有女性,只有生产者,才会面向未来,才会关注创新与繁荣,不停地拓宽可能性的边界。而田力的脑子里世界只是一个比谁拳头大的卡牌游戏,没有任何共赢可言,只有零和博弈的掠夺,又怎么可能会去创新?

人类社会的进步是一个复杂的交织过程,是广泛社会因素的共同作用。而在这一历史进程中,女性解放对社会制度的重构发挥了至关重要的作用,而不是他们认为的生产力发展单向推动了女性地位的提高。甚至说,正是因为女性的解放,我们才得以享受今天的科技与制度的成果。

女性的地位决定了人类文明的形态,决定了历史前进的方向,也决定了我们对生命、对人类自身、对自然、对历史、对智慧、对发展的认知,构建着我们社会的面容。

最初的剥削是对人本身的剥削,最初的不平等是性别的不平等。到底是社会问题包括性别议题,还是性别问题就是所有社会问题的根源?多年前的我毫不犹豫地认为是前者,而现在我却越来越接近了人类社会的真相:

数千年的无尽循环早已证明,男权的倒反天罡走不通;几十年的女性解放则证明,只有女性重新回到应有的主体地位上,文明才能真正走向未来。

宁德时代拟提前重启锂矿生产

中国电动车电池巨头宁德时代上月宣布暂时停产的大型锂矿,预计将提前恢复生产。

彭博社引述知情人士报道,宁德时代高管星期二(9月9日)在一场内部会议上通知员工,为江西宜春枧下窝矿的复产做好准备,并召回一线工人。

宁德时代8月11日披露,位于江西宜春的枧下窝矿区采矿资质于8月9日到期,并已暂停开采作业。

公司称正寻求为上述矿厂续期,但未透露更多细节,仅强调整体运营不会受到严重冲击。知情人士则称,这座矿厂将停运至少三个月。

市场普遍将停产解读为北京收紧产能、推动行业供给自律的信号。就在许可证到期前几天,交易员动用无人机勘察现场,以判断矿区的实际运作。

宁德时代传出拟提前恢复生产的消息传出后,锂企股价大幅下挫,澳洲矿业公司皮尔巴拉矿业的股价在星期二一度下跌17%,Mineral Resources则下跌超10%。

分析人士指出,枧下窝矿若提前复产,短期内可能打乱市场再平衡的预期,因此锂企股价出现负面反应并不意外。

李强:希望葡萄牙推动引导欧盟坚持中欧伙伴定位

中国总理李强与访华的葡萄牙总理蒙特内格罗会谈时说,希望葡萄牙推动引导欧盟坚持中欧伙伴定位,采取积极、务实对华政策。

据新华社报道,李强与蒙特内格罗星期二(9月9日)在北京人民大会堂举行会谈。李强说,中葡建交以来,双方始终相互信任、彼此尊重、互帮互助,推动双边关系健康稳定发展。今年适逢中葡建立全面战略伙伴关系20周年,两国关系与合作发展迎来新的契机。

李强称,中国愿同葡萄牙加强发展战略对接,继续高质量共建“一带一路”,用好战略对话、经贸混委会、中国-葡语国家经贸合作论坛等机制,推动双边贸易优化平衡发展,在数字经济、绿色经济等新兴领域深挖潜力,打造更多合作增长点,支持两国企业联手开拓第三方市场。

李强提到,中国愿进口葡萄牙更多优质农食产品,鼓励更多中国企业赴葡萄牙投资,希望葡萄牙营造良好营商环境。双方还要进一步便利人员往来,释放旅游经济活力,加强高校、语言教学、数字教育、青少年等人文领域交流合作。

李强指出,当前单边主义、保护主义行径严重冲击国际秩序。他说,中欧作为全球两大力量,应当加强协调,共同应对。希望葡萄牙推动引导欧盟坚持中欧伙伴定位,采取积极、务实对华政策,同中国一道维护自由贸易,维护中欧共同利益。

根据中国外交部网站公布的新闻稿,中国国家主席习近平也在星期二会见蒙特内格罗。他说:“国际形势越是变乱交织,中欧越要加强沟通、增进互信、深化合作。”

习近平还强调,世界进入新的动荡变革期,人类又一次站在历史的十字路口。中国愿同葡萄牙密切多边协作,共同践行真正的多边主义,维护自由贸易体制,推动构建更加公正合理的全球治理体系。

据路透社报道,蒙特内格罗向习近平表示,“我们确实期待中国的贡献,并希望借着中国与俄罗斯保持的密切关系,我们可以尽快在乌克兰建立公正而持久的和平。”

蒙特内格罗是近10年来首位访华的葡萄牙政府首脑。访问中国数天后,他将前往日本进行国事访问。

中国绿色科技公司过去三年大幅增加海外投资

一项研究显示,中国行业领先的太阳能、电池和电动汽车企业近年大幅扩张海外投资,自2022年以来承诺海外投资额超过2100亿美元(下同,2695亿新元)。

据彭博社报道,约翰霍普金斯大学旗下净零产业政策实验室的研究报告显示,中国企业正向海外扩大供应链,以开拓新市场、规避关税并更接近原材料来源。

2011年以来,中国企业宣布超过460个海外绿色制造项目,其中逾八成是在2022年之后推出的。

研究人员指出,包括宁德时代、比亚迪和天合光能在内的行业巨头,已宣布在50多个国家投资数十亿美元建设海外工厂。尽管不是所有项目都得以实现,但据估计,经通胀调整,中企承诺的投资额已超过美国二战后帮助重建整个欧洲的马歇尔计划。

研究发现,中国企业将最多资金投入印度尼西亚,重点布局富镍电池材料和太阳能项目。北非的摩洛哥吸引电池材料和绿色氢能方面的投资,中东国家则在太阳能组件和电解装置工厂方面吸引资金。

中企在美国的投资主要集中在太阳能供应链和锂离子电池工厂。

调查:中美紧张局势导致企业信心跌至新低

一项调查显示,政治紧张局势、激烈的国内竞争以及中国经济增长放缓,正在削弱美国企业对中国的信心,它们对未来五年前景的乐观程度已降至历史新低。

据路透社报道,上海美国商会星期三(9月10日)发布的调查显示,仅有41%的美国企业对未来五年在华业务的前景表示乐观,比去年下降六个百分点。这是上海美国商会自1999年发布年度报告以来,乐观程度最低的一次。

这项调查对象为涵盖各行业的254家会员企业,调查时间正值美国总统特朗普宣布全面征收所谓“解放日”关税之后不久。

地缘政治仍是企业最关注的问题。66%的受访者称,中美紧张局势将是未来三到五年业务面临的最大挑战。

至于中国新兴企业的竞争,被列为第二大挑战,超越了中国经济放缓。

盈利企业比例较去年的历史低点有所回升,达到71%。收入表现同样改善,57%的会员企业实现同比增长,高于去年的50%。

尽管如此,受访会员中仅有45%预计2025年收入将增长;若成真将创下历史新低。同时,64%的企业预计,新一轮中美关税将拖累今年的收入表现。

积极的一面是,相信中国监管环境透明的企业比例,较去年大幅上升13个百分点至48%。相信监管环境将进一步开放的企业比例,也从去年的22%升至41%。

仅有12%的受访者将中国视为企业的首要投资目的地,创下有关调查的历史新低。

香港高院法官判“互惠人工受孕案”女同志胜诉

德闻
2025-09-09T13:56:30.691Z
香港高等法院法官高浩文(Russell Coleman)判”互惠人工受孕“案女同志胜诉

(德国之声中文网)香港一对女同性伴侣2019年在南非注册结婚后,翌年在当地接受“互惠人工受孕” (RIVF) 。其中一人提供卵子并与捐精人的精子结合形成胚胎,之后将胚胎植入另一人的子宫,由其怀孕产子。婴儿2021年在香港出生。两人欲在香港入境处登记成为婴儿的母亲,但只有诞下儿子的一方成功登记为“母亲”,另一方则不被认可。二人之后向香港高等法院提起诉讼。法官欧阳桂如2023年裁定,提供卵子的一人属“普通法下的父母”,但并非法定“父母”。香港司法部因此拒绝重新登记婴儿的出生。这对已婚同性伴侣继而再次向高等法院提起司法复核,要求政府将提供卵子的一方也在婴儿出生证明上列为母亲。

本周二(9月9日),香港高等法院法官高浩文(Russell Coleman)裁定两人胜诉。他在一百多页的判词中写道,如果两名女性的名字没有都列在出生证明上,将“严重侵犯”孩子的权利。他举例说,如果孩子面临紧急医疗的情况下,或会因父母法定身份而导致决策延误。判词还指出,其中一名女性不在孩子的出生登记上“至少可能会让人怀疑她是否是该家庭的父母”,孩子将因此遭受“一些不便、尴尬,尊严也可能受到损害”。高浩文认为政府做法违宪,但法庭应作何等颁令,则需与讼各方进一步商议。

这对同性恋夫妇在一份声明中告诉法新社,法院承认孩子的平等保护权受到了侵犯,这样的声明“很有帮助”。

香港不承认同性婚姻。一项学术调查显示,RIVF(体外受精)技术于2000年代末推出,目前已在十多个国家不受限制地进行。

(法新社)

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【CDT百科】“中俄朝新轴心”是什么梗?

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网友恶搞图“邪恶三巨头”

“轴心国”是指第二次世界大战中由德国、意大利和日本主导的军事同盟。该称谓源于1936年德、意签订的《柏林—罗马轴心协定》。1940年日本加入后,形成了三国同盟,又称“轴心国联盟”或“轴心三国”。轴心国以推翻一战后国际秩序、扩张领土和建立势力范围为目标,发动了侵略战争。除三大核心成员外,还有一些国家陆续加入该阵营。最终,轴心国于1945年战败,二战也随之结束。

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墨索里尼、希特勒、松冈洋右(日本外相)

911事件后,时任美国总统布什发动反恐战争,并首次将朝鲜、伊朗、伊拉克(萨达姆政权)宣布为支持恐怖主义的“邪恶轴心”。之后,布什的幕僚进一步提出“边缘邪恶轴心”,将古巴、利比亚(卡扎菲政权)、叙利亚纳入。

CDT 档案卡
标题:【CDT百科】
作者:中国数字时代
来源:网络
发表日期:2025.9.10
主题归类:中俄朝新轴心
CDS收藏:话语馆
版权说明:该作品版权归中国数字时代所有,欢迎个人、媒体和研究机构在注明来源的前提下免费使用。详细版权说明

2022年,在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前,美国评论员丹妮尔·普莱特卡首次将中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜称为“新邪恶轴心”,并将中国视为核心。她的理由包括:中国政府隐瞒新冠疫情,限制香港民主,武力威胁台湾,对新疆实施集中营式管控,并且还同俄罗斯建立了“无上限”伙伴关系。之后,美印太司令部司令也表示,中俄伊朗朝四国“邪恶轴心”处于新生阶段。

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丹妮尔·普莱特卡的评论文章

自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰至今,中国虽然在战争问题上一贯声称保持中立,但在政治、外交、经济层面一直助攻俄罗斯,实质上大力支援了其战时经济。朝鲜则向俄罗斯出售了大量的武器,并在2024年底直接派遣军事人员赴乌作战,两国成为了事实上的军事同盟关系。而中国与朝鲜之间则拥有“唇齿相依”的传统伙伴关系,中国多年来一直是朝鲜最大的援助国。

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2024年普京、金正恩两人会面

相比之下,当伊朗与以色列交战并遭到美国轰炸核设施时,其余三国并未迅速提供援助,中俄两国只是象征性地谴责了美方行动。因此也有评论认为,伊朗与中俄朝三国的关系不算紧密,并且伊朗在意识形态层面(神权国家)有更大的不同。

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中国“强烈谴责”美国袭击伊朗

9月3日,中国国家主席习近平在北京主持大型阅兵,纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年。有26位外国国家元首和政府首脑受邀出席纪念活动,其中包括俄罗斯总统普京、朝鲜最高领导人金正恩、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬,中朝俄伊四国首脑罕见聚首。值得注意的是,参会名单中没有任何西方主要国家。批评者认为,这场阅兵更像是中国在借机集结反西方力量的大联盟,同时中国“把那场不属于自己的胜利,篡改成了为自己权力加冕的政治仪式”。

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9·3阅兵无任何西方主要国家参与

当习近平与多国元首齐登天安门城楼时,普京与金正恩分别站在习近平的两侧,三人并肩站在首排,构成了历史性的同框。而上一次类似画面还是出现在七十多年前。在海外社交平台上,不少网友嘲讽三人的同框是“中俄朝新轴心”、“邪恶三巨头”、“独裁者联盟”、“反正义联盟”、“新时代纳粹”、“三个终身制”、“法西斯纪念反法西斯胜利”。讽刺的是,习近平还在阅兵式上强调,“人们应共同铭记伟大真理:正义必胜!和平必胜!人民必胜!”

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习近平、普京、金正恩三人历史性同框

多名网友共同总结道“三个国家都深受共产主义的影响,三个国家目前都是专制极权国家,三个国家试图建立反西方的新世界秩序,三国领导人都以不同方式谋求了‘无限连任’,三个国家都具有典型的‘法西斯特征’却在纪念反法西斯战争胜利,三个国家都对邻国进行了武力威胁或直接侵略,对当今世界和平构成了重大威胁”。

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习近平“全票当选”连任国家主席

有评论指出,虽然之前伊朗因美国和以色列的打击而被削弱,但中国仍通过这场阅兵向世界传递了重大的信号——一个以中俄朝为主的新轴心联盟已经成形。它们与西方为敌,彼此抱团取暖,与当年的二战轴心国一样,试图颠覆现有的国际秩序。其中,中国凭借工业、资金以及军事上的相对优势成为新轴心之首。这也意味着,一个中美直接对抗的新时代正式被开启。也正如习近平多次强调的那句“当今世界面临百年未有之大变局,进入了新的动荡变革期”。

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卡塔尔发生爆炸 中使馆促当地中国公民减少外出

卡塔尔首都多哈发生爆炸后,中国驻卡塔尔大使馆提醒在当地的中国公民提高安全意识,尽量减少不必要外出。

中国驻卡塔尔大使馆星期二(9月9日)在官方微信公众号发文称,多哈当天发生爆炸事件,并提醒在卡中国公民和机构提高安全意识,尽量减少不必要外出,避免前往高风险地区。

卡塔尔多哈星期二发生爆炸,现场传出巨响,并有目击者称卡塔拉地区升起浓烟。以色列军方随后证实,他们对在卡塔尔参与谈判的哈马斯高层领袖进行精准打击。不过,半岛电视台引述哈马斯的消息指出,没有哈马斯成员在此次攻击中丧命。

毛泽东逝世49周年 孙子携妻女到纪念堂祭奠缅怀

星期二(9月9日)是中共已故开国领导人毛泽东逝世49周年,他的孙子毛新宇携妻子刘滨,以及女兒毛甜懿到北京毛主席纪念堂祭奠缅怀。

北京广播电视台“北京时间”官方微博发出的短视频显示,毛新宇穿着军装,刘滨身穿黑色连身裙,毛甜懿则穿着运动装。他们三人在毛泽东雕像前合照。

视频也搭配一段文字,内容写道:“9月9日,毛主席逝世49周年,毛主席的孙子毛新宇少将,携妻子刘滨,女儿毛甜懿,到毛主席纪念堂祭奠缅怀。”

北京上星期三(9月3日)举行中国纪念抗日战争胜利80周年大阅兵,毛新宇携一家四口观礼。相关话题一度登上微博的热搜榜首位。

据湖南省韶山管理局主办的天下韶山网消息,在今年4月清明节期间,毛新宇一家人曾回到韶山祭祖。毛新宇当时在毛泽东祖父坟前说,“毛氏后人一定会清正廉洁”,并表示永远严格要求自己,不断为中共和中国作出新的贡献。

中国8月电商物流指数连续六个月上涨

中国8月电商物流业务量持续上升, 国内促进消费政策推动下,主要电商平台销售热度比7月显著提升。

据央视新闻报道,中国物流与采购联合会星期三(9月10日)公布的数据显示,8月中国电商物流指数为112.3点,比上月上升0.3点,继续创年内新高。

分项指数中,电商物流总业务量指数超过131点,比上月上升0.5点,涨速加快。

中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航说,这反映出8月份以来中国国内消费意愿持续增强。主要电商平台数据显示,8月整体电商销售热度、推广热度比7月显著提升,促消费政策效应愈发明显。

刘宇航指出,以旧换新和促进消费场景多元化的系列政策在逐步发挥作用,也为电商物流的需求带来新增长点。

日参议员石平被北京制裁 中使馆:强力惩戒

中国对日本参议员石平实施制裁后,中国驻日本大使馆说,石平通过出卖良知来捞取私利的行为令人不齿,并称中方相关举措是对石平之流的强力惩戒和严厉警示。

中国驻日本大使馆星期二(9月9日)在官网以发言人答记者问形式说,石平曾拥有中国国籍,赴日并取得日本国籍后,长期大肆散布虚假有害信息、恶意诽谤中伤中国,顽固采取极端反华仇华言行,严重违背中日四个政治文件精神和一个中国原则,严重干涉中国内政,严重损害中国主权和领土完整。

使馆称,这种通过出卖良知来捞取私利的行为令人不齿。中方依据《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》对他反制,是维护自身权益的必要举措,是对石平之流的强力惩戒和严厉警示。

中国外交部星期一(9月8日)上午在官网通报,从即日起,冻结石平在中国境内的动产、不动产及其他各类财产;禁止中国境内的组织、个人与他进行有关交易、合作等活动;对他本人及直系亲属不予签发签证、不准入境(包括香港、澳门)。

日本政府就此事提出交涉,要求中国尽快撤回相关措施。日本内阁秘书长林芳正说:“作为国民代表的国会议员,言论自由是我国民主主义的根本,应当受到尊重。中方以我国国会议员的言论等为由,采取类似威吓持不同立场者的单方面措施,我们绝不能接受这样的做法,从日中关系的角度来看也极为遗憾。”

公开资料显示,今年63岁的石平生于中国四川成都,毕业于北京大学哲学系,1988年赴日留学,之后在神户大学考获博士学位。2007年,石平取得日本国籍,隔年担任拓殖大学客座教授,今年7月当选参议员。

石平主张钓鱼台为日本固有领土,必须重视日美同盟,联合美国对抗中国,也支持和肯定日本民主党政要参拜靖国神社。他反对用“侵略”形容南京大屠杀 ,认为中国的“南京大屠杀”记载不符合历史事实。

消息人士:特朗普敦促欧盟对中印征收100%关税

一位美国官员和一位欧盟外交官说,美国总统特朗普星期二(9月9日)敦促欧盟官员对中国商品征收最高可达100%的关税,作为向俄罗斯总统普京施压战略的一部分。

路透社引述不愿透露姓名的官员称,特朗普还鼓励欧盟对印度征收类似的高额关税。

中国和印度是俄罗斯石油的主要买家,因此在俄罗斯自2022年起扩大对乌克兰的入侵之际,它们在维持俄罗斯经济运转方面发挥着关键作用。

美国就中企持有倍耐力股份再次警告意大利

知情人士透露,美国就倍耐力(Pirelli)问题加大对意大利施压,警告称中国国企作为倍耐力的大股东可能会与美国的规定相冲突。

据彭博社报道,因讨论未公开消息而要求匿名的知情人士表示,美国商务部工业和安全局在7月中旬致信意大利官员,称意大利在2023年为了限制中化影响力而对倍耐力动用的否决权,不足以保护公司免受美国限制。

这些知情人士说,这封信函是回应意大利方面要求美国澄清对中化参股倍耐力的立场。

一位知情人士称,中化的代表预计将在未来几天与意大利官员会面,讨论倍耐力相关事宜。

报道称,美国加大力度审查可能与中国存在关联的敏感技术,这使倍耐力以及其他意大利公司陷入困境。倍耐力37%的股份由中化持有,约四分之一的销售来自美国,该公司在Cyber Tyre联网轮胎系统上投入大量资金,这一技术被视为推动其未来增长的关键。

Turkey's 'tough guy' president says he's tackling corruption. Rivals say he's silencing opposition

BBC Police officers use pepper spray on a demonstrator wearing dervish clothes, during a protest BBC

For 13 terrifying seconds on 23 April this year, Turkey's largest city was shaken by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake. It was so strong that 151 people leapt from buildings in Istanbul in panic causing injuries, but no deaths.

But the Mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, could not lift a finger to help the city he was first elected to run in 2019.

He was behind bars in a high-security prison complex in the district of Silivri, on the western edge of the city – ironically close to the epicentre.

Imamoglu is accused of a raft of corruption charges, which he strongly denies – "Kafkaesque charges" in his words.

Supporters say his only crime is being the greatest threat to Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in presidential elections due by 2028.

YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images Istanbul Mayor Ekrem ImamogluYASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images
More than 500 people linked to the CHP have been arrested since October

Many of his fellow prisoners in Marmara jail - on the day of the earthquake - had also fallen foul of President Erdogan during his 22 years in power, some of them as peaceful protesters.

The jail is still widely known by its former name of Silivri. Hence the household phrase to explain why the speaker might be wary of criticising Erdogan: "Silivri is cold now."

Critics say that after Erdogan's early years as a Western-facing reformer, he has become a latter-day Sultan, dismantling human rights, cracking down on dissent and weaponising the courts.

The jailed mayor, leaders of his Republican People's Party (CHP), veteran lawyers, and student protesters are all appearing in the dock this month in separate cases.

"Erdogan has taken a huge step towards turning Turkey into a Russia-style autocracy," argues Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington, who is from Turkey and now lives in the US.

"What he has in mind is a Turkey where the ballot box has no meaning… where he hand-picks his opponents."

Ozan Guzelce/ dia images via Getty Images President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul Ozan Guzelce/ dia images via Getty Images
Erdogan has fingers in many pies - including Russia, Ukraine. (Pictured meeting President Zelensky in Istanbul)

In all, more than 500 people linked to the CHP have been arrested since last October.

Prosecutors accuse the mayor and his associates of taking bribes, rigging tenders, extortion, and having links to terrorism.

But the CHP - which is centrist and secular - argues that the detentions are politically motivated and aimed at silencing the opposition. The party denies the charges.

Some are asking why, as Turkish democracy comes under fire in full view, has the international community said little and done even less? Could it be that Erdogan has fingers in too many pies - including Russia, Ukraine, Syria, and Nato - for European leaders to want to pick a fight?

And is US President Donald Trump's willingness to look the other way on human rights giving Erdogan a freer hand?

'Overstepping the boundaries of justice'

Moments before his arrest in March, with hundreds of police on his doorstep, Mayor Imamoglu calmly carried on knotting his tie, while making a social media video for his supporters.

"We are facing great tyranny," he said, "but… I will not be discouraged."

He was composed and defiant - and "a mortal threat to Erdogan", according to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research programme at the Washington Institute in the US.

"He's charismatic, he's relatable, he's conservative like Erdogan, but also secular. He ticks so many boxes."

But he can tick far fewer in jail.

Burak Kara/Getty Images Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu attend a protest rally organized by the main opposition Republican People’s Party Burak Kara/Getty Images
The arrest of Istanbul's opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, sparked the largest protests in Turkey in years

His arrest came just as the CHP – Turkey's largest opposition party - was poised to nominate him as their candidate for the presidency. (They did it anyway, after he was detained.)

Locking up Imamoglu sparked the biggest anti-government protests in more than a decade. It was mostly the young who surged onto the streets, members of Generation Erdogan who have known no other leader.

"It has reached the breaking point for most people," said one 21-year-old in Istanbul. "They have overstepped the boundaries of justice."

Another said this was "a direct attack on our democracy".

The government banned the demonstrations – which were largely peaceful - but could not stop them.

The turmoil in Istanbul played out in the shadow of a Roman aqueduct. Erdogan's legions of riot police took up positions under the arches, armed with batons, tear gas and rubber bullets.

KEMAL ASLAN/AFP via Getty Images Turkish riot police spray tear gas onto a protester during a demonstration outside Istanbul's city hall to support Istanbul mayor Ekrem ImamogluKEMAL ASLAN/AFP via Getty Images
A protester dressed as a whirling dervish and wearing a gas mask was fired on with pepper spray by police

One photo made front pages around the world: a lone protester dressed as a whirling dervish - in traditional costume plus gas mask – being pepper-sprayed by the police.

Hours after it was taken, the photographer, Yasin Akgul of the AFP news agency, was detained at home, his hands still stinging from tear gas. Several other leading photojournalists were also arrested.

Some 2,000 people were rounded up after the protests – many in pre-dawn raids. More than 800 of them were charged with taking part in "unauthorised demonstrations".

These days, getting arrested is "the easiest thing", according to Gonul Tol. "You just have to like a tweet or a Facebook post criticising Erdogan."

Student protester Esila Ayia, 22, was detained after holding up a poster calling the Turkish leader a dictator. (Insulting the president is a crime in Turkey.) If convicted, she could get four years in jail.

YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu delivers a speech for his supporters during a protest in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Istanbul YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images
Ekrem Imamoglu was seen as Erdogan's strongest challenger for the presidency

The arrests keep coming

Many Turks are feeling the chill, according to Berk Esen, associate professor of political science at Istanbul's Sabanci University, which has a liberal reputation. He claims there is "rampant pressure and oppression" of opposition figures in politics, civil society, academia and the media.

But he adds that Turkey is "not yet a fully fledged authoritarian regime… there is still some room for dissent".

Yet the arrests keep coming. More than 100 CHP members remain behind bars.

The president claims the CHP is "mired in corruption" with a network like "an octopus whose arms stretch to other parts of Turkey and abroad".

But Emma Sinclair-Webb of the campaign group Human Rights Watch sees a different octopus - the government itself.

It has "many, many, many, tentacles that go everywhere", she says. "There is a clear-sighted attempt by the government to go after critics and to go after the opposition.

Ugur Yildirim/ dia images via Getty Images Demonstrators protesting against the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu Ugur Yildirim/ dia images via Getty Images
President Erdogan has accused the CHP of being 'mired in corruption'

"There is a complete loss of trust in the justice system. It's perceived more and more as highly politicised, and detention is being used to muzzle critics."

Members of the judiciary, prosecutors and judges themselves are "all the time looking up for instructions from above", she says.

The government says the judiciary is independent and impartial.

'He's a tough guy - very smart'

As Istanbul's mayor remains behind bars in Silivri, the international community remains focused elsewhere - chiefly on Israel's war in Gaza, and Russia's war in Ukraine.

The latter gives President Erdogan an edge, according to analysts.

He enjoys relatively good relations with Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky as well as Trump.

"I can't think of many other leaders who are in this position," says Berk Esen of Sabanci University. "I think in the international arena he likes to present himself as a dealmaker, in the room, shaking hands."

Alex Wong/Getty Images U.S. President Donald Trump (L) welcomes President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R)Alex Wong/Getty Images
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to enjoy relatively good relations with President Trump

President Erdogan has had some success – for instance, helping to broker an agreement for Ukraine to resume grain exports through the Black Sea in July 2022, after they were halted by Russia's invasion five months earlier. And this year he hosted negotiators from Kyiv and Moscow for their first face-to-face talks since 2022.

"Everyone is praising his role in Russia and Ukraine," says Dr Tol. "Western leaders are looking to him to build European defence. And Trump doesn't care [what Erdogan does domestically], so he understands he can get away with it. "

She says Trump's return to the White House "has created an international context where regional autocrats feel empowered".

Dr Cagaptay, of the Washington Institute, says Erdogan has a freer hand because Trump has turned inwards, and the two leaders have "a special chemistry, going back to Trump's first term in office".

"I happen to like him, and he likes me," Trump has said of Erdogan. "He's a tough guy and he's very smart."

Attached is an image showing how the Bosphorus is the dividing line between Europe and Asia, splitting the capital city Istanbul across two continents, and controlling marine traffic in and out of the Black Sea.
Istanbul straddles Europe and Asia - the continents are separated by the Bosphorus

Erdogan is also well-placed geopolitically. Turkey's land mass lies partly in Asia, and partly in Europe, a bridge between two continents.

He holds plenty of other cards too - not least his leverage in neighbouring Syria. He backed the winning side there, supporting the Islamist rebels who overthrew President Bashar al-Assad in December.

He also leads the only Muslim nation in Nato, with the second largest army in the alliance, and a population of 85.6 million people. What happens here matters, for East and West.

"What Turkey is doing under Erdogan is leveraging its multiple identities very successfully," says Dr Cagaptay. "With the EU, I think Turkey is playing a middle power game very well…. whether it's about stabilising Syria or stabilising Ukraine after a ceasefire."

The sanctity of the ballot

Erdogan may be empowered - and enabled - but there is a limit, according to some analysts.

What he won't do is cancel the next presidential elections, according to Onur Isci, professor of history and international affairs at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

"Historically the Turkish people have been acutely sensitive about the sanctity of the ballot and attempts to curtail it would provoke serious consequences," he says.

Turkish elections are generally free on the day, though far from fair beforehand.

The playing field is not level. Most mainstream media outlets are pro-government. Those that are not, come under strong pressure from the authorities.

Burak Kara/Getty Images Leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and the presidential candidate of the Main Opposition alliance meets supportersBurak Kara/Getty Images
The 2023 presidential election was close-run: Erdogan won 52.18% of the vote, just enough to defeat opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu (wearing the red tie)

During the last election in 2023, Erdogan hung on to power narrowly, winning 52.18% of the vote against the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Recent polls have suggested he could be beaten next time by Imamoglu. But the mayor remains behind bars, facing several different trials, and the opposition will probably be forced to choose a different candidate.

As a two-term president, Erdogan, 71, is barred from running again, but he can solve that problem by calling early elections or bringing in a new constitution.

"I have no interest in being re-elected or running for office again," he said in May.

Mr Esen thinks otherwise. "He will run for the presidency as long as he is alive."

KEMAL ASLAN/AFP via Getty Images A protester waves Turkey's national flag before Turkish riot policeKEMAL ASLAN/AFP via Getty Images
Despite opposition protests, many conservative voters credit Erdogan's AKP for modernising Turkey's economy and giving Islam greater prominence in a secular republic

As the longest-serving leader in modern Turkey, he has a loyal base who want him to. Many conservative voters are grateful for the development brought by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and for his promotion of Islam, in this secular republic.

Plenty of devotion was visible at a rally of the president's supporters before the last election.

One supporter, Ayse Ozdogan, had gone there early to hear her leader's every word, a crutch by her side.

"Erdoğan is everything to me," she said, with a broad smile. "We couldn't get to hospitals before, now we have transportation. He has improved roads. He has built mosques."

But what of his impact on Turkish democracy?

"It's hugely eroded but not dead," according to Ms Sinclair-Webb. "There is a very vibrant democracy, wedded to democratic principles and to elections."

The opposition too is very robust, she says.

Soner Cagaptay cites the example of a doner kebab seller, slicing meat on a spit.

"To me, that's like Turkish democracy under Erdogan. He's taken really thin slices over the past 20 years, and there's very little meat left."

But he says there is a lesson to take from the Erdogan era: "It takes a long time to kill a democracy."

We contacted the president's communication office for an official response but did not receive one.

In a report to the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs here said that Turkey has "stood firm to protect and promote human rights... and has continued its efforts at further compliance with international standards in law."

The report adds that they country "spares no effort to create favourable conditions for civil society, including human rights defenders".

That may ring hollow in the cells in Silivri.

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Contactless card payments could become unlimited and £100 cap scrapped

Getty Images Man presses a payment card to a reader at a self-service till in a supermarket.Getty Images

Contactless card payments are set to exceed £100 and potentially become unlimited under new proposals to allow banks and other providers to set limits.

The proposals from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) mean entering a four-digit PIN to make a card payment could become even more of a rarity for shoppers.

If approved, purchases which can cost more than £100 - such as a big supermarket shop, or large family meal in a restaurant - could be made with a tap of a card.

The move would bring cards in line with payments made through digital wallets on smartphones which have no restriction, and reflects the ongoing changes in the way people pay.

When contactless card payments were introduced in 2007, the transaction limit was set at £10. The limit was raised gradually, to £15 in 2010, to £20 in 2012, then to £30 in 2015, before the Covid pandemic prompted a jump to £45 in 2020, then to £100 in October 2021.

If approved, the latest plan could be put in place early next year.

Every rise has been met with concerns about theft and fraud, and the FCA said card providers would only permit higher-value contactless payments for low-risk transactions and would carry the burden if things went wrong.

However, the freedom for banks to raise or even scrap the contactless limit suggests the four-digit PIN could soon become relatively redundant.

The FCA has proposed the changes, despite the majority of consumers and industry respondents to a consultation favouring the current rules.

Some 78% of consumers who responded said they did not want any change to the limits.

The FCA said it did not expect any quick changes, but providers would welcome the flexibility over time when prices rise and technology advances. They could also give customers the option to set their own limits.

Fraud and theft fears

The idea of high-value payments being made with a tap of a card will raise concern that thieves and fraudsters will target cards.

Various protections are already in place. In addition to the £100 single payment limit, consumers are often required to enter a PIN if a series of contactless transactions totals more than £300, or five consecutive contactless payments are made.

The FCA's own analysis suggests raising the limits would increase fraud losses, but said detection was improving and would continue to get better.

It said any change would be reliant on providers ensuring payments were low-risk, through their fraud prevention systems.

Consumers would still get their money back if money was stolen by fraudsters, according to David Geale, from the FCA.

"People are still protected. Even with contactless, firms will refund your money if your card is used fraudulently," he said.

Many banks already allow cardholders to set a contactless limit of lower than £100, or switch it off completely, and the FCA expected this option to be made widely available.

It argued that time savings, less "payment friction", and a reflection of rising prices over time would make changes in the limits worthwhile.

Payment terminals would also need to be altered, as most are programmed to automatically refuse payments of more than £100 by card.

'I only use my phone to pay'

Smartphones already have an extra layer of security, through thumbprints or face ID. That allows people to pay without limits.

Nearly three-quarters of 16 to 24-year-olds regularly use mobile payments, according to industry research.

Near the appropriately named Bank Street in Sevenoaks, 24-year-old Demi Grady said she rarely bothered carrying her cards around anymore because she used her phone for everything.

"I was in London the other day, my phone died and I couldn't pay for stuff because I couldn't remember my card details," she said.

Her mum, Carrie, in contrast, uses her card when shopping.

"It would worry me more than be of benefit if they were to lose the limit of £100," she said.

Robert Ryan in a menswear shop with coats and tops on hangers and shelves behind him.
Robert says the contactless limit can be a useful budgeting reminder

Robert Ryan, who had just bought a "winter-ish jacket" at a Harveys Menswear on Bank Street said he did not regard entering a four-digit number when paying as a hassle. Instead it could be a useful budgeting tool.

"I feel more secure in what I'm buying and it does give me a bit of a prompt to make sure I'm not overspending on my tap-and-go," he said.

Richard Staplehurst, the owner of the store, said the majority of his customers were paying via a device.

He said that removing any obstacles to payment was great, but he did not want to be landed with a bill if a card was used fraudulently.

Stimulating the UK economy

The idea of removing the contactless limit was highlighted as one way the FCA was responding to the prime minister's call to regulators to remove restrictions to create more economic growth.

The government has been striving to improve the UK's economic performance, which has been slow for some time.

Other countries, such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand allow industry to set contactless card limits.

The FCA will consult on its proposals until 15 October.

Approving China 'mega' embassy would be unlawful, UK government told

BBC Anti-China mega embassy protesters near the site, at Tower Bridge BBC
Anti-China mega embassy protesters near the site, at Tower Bridge

One of the UK's top planning lawyers has said it would be "unlawful" for the government to grant planning permission for a Chinese "mega embassy" near the Tower of London.

The opinion, from Lord Banner KC, was submitted to the government on Monday, just ahead of the final deadline for those opposed to the scheme to have their say.

Opponents are stepping up their fight against China's plan to turn the historic Royal Mint Court into the largest embassy of any country in Europe.

Residents of flats forming part of the Royal Mint estate commissioned the legal document in a bid to derail the scheme, as they fear China, which is now their landlord, will ultimately force them to leave their homes.

Former housing secretary Angela Rayner called the scheme in last year, ensuring the final decision on the planning application would be taken by her and not Tower Hamlets Council.

One of the most contentious aspects of the planning application has been that sections have been 'greyed out' by China, with the intended use of the rooms in question obscured.

In August, Rayner had written to the Chinese side demanding they "explain the rationale and justification for each of the redactions".

Hong Kong dissidents, and other Chinese pro-democracy activists living in the UK, have expressed fears that these rooms could be used to hold and interrogate opponents of China's Communist regime.

China's response, given by planning consultants working on its behalf, was to clarify the use of some rooms, but to decline to do so for others saying, "the internal functional layout for embassy projects is different from other projects".

They pointed to the fact "the application for the new US embassy in Nine Elms did not disclose details of internal layouts".

In his opinion Lord Banner points to the fact that parts of Royal Mint Court are listed and says "it cannot tenably be said that the detail omitted by the redactions could have no possible planning consequences".

He gave examples of what needs to be assessed, including "the potential uses of the redacted rooms, any structural or safety (including but not limited to fire safety) implications of any physical structures".

Lord Banner also highlights that, no matter what assurances are given, the People's Republic of China (PRC) would "benefit from diplomatic immunity" for any activities occurring on that territory, giving "'carte blanche' in relation to what goes on in the rooms".

He called on Rayner's replacement, the new Housing Secretary Steve Reed, to be provided with unredacted plans, as planning permission "cannot lawfully be granted on the basis of the redacted plans".

A second area where there has been concern about the plans is that China wants to leave one section of the embassy site open to the public so people could view the ruins of a Cistercian abbey and also visit a Chinese heritage centre it hopes to build.

Earlier in the year, the Foreign Office and the Home Office had said this posed "specific public order and national security risks", because they feared that if there was a security or health alert in that paved forecourt, the emergency services would not be able to deal with it.

Any member of the public, including anti-China protestors, could walk into the area - but the police could not enter, as the land would be Chinese territory with "diplomatic inviolability".

They requested China enclose this section inside the embassy's security perimeter. Beijing has declined to do that.

Instead, it said it would agree, as a planning condition, that police or emergency services would be allowed to access the land, if necessary.

In his opinion, Lord Banner says this solution is not adequate, because it would "not be enforceable given the immunity conferred on the Embassy, the Ambassador, and other Embassy employees by virtue of... the Vienna Convention".

"In law the PRC's assurances are meaningless," he says, adding: "The PRC would be free in domestic and international law to U-turn on them at any time and there is nothing that planning conditions could do to stop this."

Despite Rayner's sudden departure, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) has indicated her replacement Reed is still expected to make a decision on or before 21 October.

A MHCLG spokesperson said it would not be appropriate to provide ongoing commentary which could prejudice any final decision.

The Royal Mint Court Residents' Association said that with Lord Banner's opinion it had "shown why the Chinese Embassy at the Royal Mint cannot be approved".

They said: "The UK government should now put an end to the planning application once and for all, or face a humiliating judicial review."

Reed will have to weigh other issues alongside the planning questions, including serious security concerns.

Conservative politicians have said that if China is allowed to turn Royal Mint Court into its new embassy it could seek to tap into fibre optic cables running near the building that carry sensitive data for financial institutions in the City of London.

The Chinese Embassy in London has previously told the BBC that it "is committed to promoting understanding and the friendship between the Chinese and British peoples and the development of mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

"Building the new embassy would help us better perform such responsibilities".

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Trump Moves to Crack Down on Drug Advertising

The administration is proposing a return to a 1990s-era policy that kept most drug ads off TV. That could dent the revenues of drugmakers and major networks.

© Eric Lee for The New York Times

President Trump signed a memorandum directing the F.D.A. to restrict advertising of prescription drugs on television, a move reflecting one of the top priorities of the health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Pressure mounts on Bolsonaro as two out of five judges find him guilty

SEBASTIAO MOREIRA/EPA/Shutterstock Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro walks at his residence in Brasilia, Brazil, 3 September 2025.  He is wearing a pale yellow polo shirt. His brow is furrowed. SEBASTIAO MOREIRA/EPA/Shutterstock
Brazil's ex-president is accused of plotting a coup, which he denies

The first of five Supreme Court justices who will decide the fate of the former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has found the ex-leader guilty of plotting a coup.

But Bolsonaro will only be convicted if at least three out of the five justices find him guilty.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes said there was "no doubt" that there had been a coup attempt after Bolsonaro lost the 2022 presidential election to his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Moraes also said that Bolsonaro had led the "criminal organisation" which he alleged was behind the attempted coup. Bolsonaro has denied all the charges.

If convicted, Bolsonaro - who governed Brazil from January 2019 to December 2022 - could face a lengthy sentence of more than 40 years in prison.

Read: What you need to know about Bolsonaro's coup plot trial

The charges against Bolsonaro are extremely serious and Justice Moraes - who had been widely expected to convict Bolsonaro - did not hold back in the summary of his decision.

The former president and his seven co-defendants - some of whom are top military officers - stand accused of trying to prevent President-elect Lula from taking up office.

The seven co-defendants have also denied the charges.

Speaking in court on Tuesday, Justice Moraes said there was plenty of evidence of a plot to kill Lula, his vice-presidential running mate, and Justice Moraes himself.

Moraes showed a document detailing the plan, codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger, with key sections highlighted.

"This was written in the Brazilian government headquarters, at the same time that President Jair Bolsonaro was there," he said. He added that part of the plan had been printed out in the presidential palace.

According to investigators, the defendants failed to enlist enough support from the military for the plan to go ahead.

But Moraes argued that the defendants' efforts culminated in the storming of Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace by thousands of Bolsonaro supporters on 8 January 2023 - one week after Lula was sworn into office.

Order was quickly restored and more than 1,500 people were arrested.

But, according to Moraes, Brazil had come close to descending into authoritarianism: "We are slowly forgetting that Brazil almost returned to its 20-year dictatorship because a criminal organisation, comprised of a political group, doesn't know how to lose elections."

"There is no doubt that the defendant, Jair Bolsonaro, held meetings with Armed Forces commanders to discuss the breach of constitutional norms," Moraes said.

The ex-president was not in court when Justice Moraes announced his guilty vote.

Bolsonaro's lawyers said their client was suffering from health problems. The 70-year-old was stabbed in the stomach while on the campaign trail in 2018 and has been having recurrent health issues resulting from the incident ever since.

His lawyers said that he followed the proceedings from his home in Brasília, where he is being kept under house arrest.

Because he is currently banned from using social media, we have not heard from him during the verdict stage of this trial but he has in the past said that the trial was politically motivated.

The former president alleges that it is designed to prevent him from standing in the 2026 presidential election.

However, he is already banned from running for public office until 2030 for spreading unfounded rumours about Brazil's voting system.

The trial has deepened divisions in Brazil, with supporters of Bolsonaro alleging that the five-member panel tasked with the case is biased.

They point to the fact that one of the justices was President Lula's personal lawyer while another served as Lula's justice minister.

Critics of Bolsonaro, on the other hand, say that Brazil's institutions need to act decisively when under attack. They point to the fact that democracy was only restored in 1985 after two decades of military rule to underpin their argument.

Abducted Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov freed in Iraq

Elizabeth Tsurkov An undated photo of Elizabeth TsurkovElizabeth Tsurkov
Elizabeth Tsurkov went missing in Iraq during a research trip in March 2023

An Israeli-Russian researcher has been released after "being tortured for many months" by her Iraqi militia abductors, US President Donald Trump has announced.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said: "I am pleased to report that Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton student, whose sister is an American citizen, was just released by Kataib Hezbollah, and is now safely in the American embassy in Iraq".

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani confirmed Ms Tsurkov's release shortly afterwards.

She had gone missing in Iraq during a research trip in March 2023 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said several months later that she was being held by the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah.

In a post on X, Sudani said Ms Tsurkov's release was "a culmination of extensive efforts exerted by our security services over the course of many months".

He added that the security services on Tuesday were able to "uncover" the place the student had been held, before handing her over to the US embassy.

Ms Tsurkov entered Iraq on her Russian passport, Netanyahu's office said at the time.

According to Ms Tsurkov's website, her research focuses on the Levant - a historical term that refers to a large geographical region including present-day Israel, Syria and other areas - and "the Syrian uprising and civil war".

Kataib Hezbollah (Brigades of the Party of God) is a powerful Iraqi Shia militia that gets financial and military support from Iran. It was designated by the US as a terrorist organisation in 2009.

In Tuesday's post on Truth Social, Trump also said: "I will always fight for justice and never give up.

"Hamas, release the hostages, now!" he added, in a reference to those people seized by the Palestinian group during its deadly attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.

中国敦促以色列立即停止在加沙的军事行动

中国敦促以色列立即停止在加沙的军事行动,尽快实现全面持久停火。

中国外交部发言人林剑星期二(9月9日)在北京表示,加沙冲突延宕已经超过700天,造成6.4万加沙民众死亡和前所未有的人道危机。

林剑说,中方反对和谴责一切伤害平民、损害民用设施、违反国际法的行为,敦促以方立即停止在加沙的军事行动,尽快实现全面持久停火,防止更大规模的人道主义危机。

以色列军方星期二下令加沙城居民撤离,为即将对加沙地带这座最大城市发起的新一轮攻势做准备。

以色列总理内坦亚胡前一天已警告当地居民马上离开,他说以军地面部队正在集结,即将攻入加沙城。

Hamas claims leadership survived Israeli attack in Doha, but confirms six deaths

Reuters A damaged building in Doha, Qatar, following an Israeli strike targeting senior Hamas leaders (9 September 2025)Reuters
Qatar said Israel struck residential buildings housing several members of the Hamas political bureau

Israel has carried out a strike targeting the senior leadership of Hamas in Qatar's capital, Doha.

A Hamas official told the BBC that members of the Palestinian armed group's negotiating team were targeted during a meeting. It was not clear whether any of them were killed, but photos showed a badly damaged building in the northern Katara district.

The Israeli military accused the Hamas leaders of being directly responsible for the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel and of orchestrating the ensuing war in Gaza.

Qatar strongly condemned what it called the "cowardly Israeli attack that targeted residential buildings housing several members of the political bureau of Hamas".

"This criminal assault constitutes a blatant violation of all international laws and norms, and poses a serious threat to the security and safety of Qataris and residents in Qatar," a foreign ministry statement said.

The Gulf state - a key US ally in the region that is the location of a major American air base - has hosted the Hamas political bureau since 2012 and has served as a mediator in indirect negotiations between the group and Israel.

UN Secretary General António Guterres also condemned the strike, saying it was a "flagrant violation" of Qatar's sovereignty.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office stressed that what it called the "action against the top terrorist chiefs" of Hamas was a "a wholly independent Israeli operation".

"Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility," a statement said.

Location of Israeli strike targeting Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar (9 September 2025)

A senior Israeli official told Israeli media that the Hamas members targeted included Khalil al-Hayya, the chief negotiator and exiled Gaza leader, and Zaher Jabarin, the exiled West Bank leader.

"We are awaiting the results of the strike. There is a consensus among the political and security leadership," the official added.

On Monday, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz had warned Hamas leaders living abroad that they faced "annihilation" and Gaza would be destroyed if the group did not release its hostages and lay down its arms.

The Israeli military launched a campaign in Gaza in response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.

At least 64,605 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

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