What to Expect From Hurricane Melissa as It Makes Landfall

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© Octavio Jones/Reuters

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乌克兰总统泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)周日在受访时表示,特朗普政府的新制裁将损害俄罗斯的战争机器,但乌方仍然需要远程导弹来迫使俄总统普京寻求和平。此前,美国上周宣布制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业,俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司。
泽连斯基在采访中向短新闻网站Axios表示,美方采取的这些制裁“将起到作用”,但他暗示,除非特朗普加大压力,否则普京不会让步。
泽连斯基说道:“特朗普总统担心局势升级。但我认为,如果没有谈判,局势无论如何都会升级。我认为,如果普京不停下来,我们需要一些东西来阻止他。制裁就是这样一种武器,但我们也需要远程导弹”。
泽连斯基日前在白宫与特朗普的会谈围绕俄乌和平协议的潜在框架,以及乌方对美制“战斧“导弹的渴望展开了激烈的争论。泽连斯基称,此次会谈“富有建设性”,但也承认过程并非易事。
泽连斯基直言,“我与特朗普总统的会谈旨在向俄罗斯施压。我认为他想向俄罗斯施压,但他不想让事态升级,也不想关闭······外交途径”。泽连斯基在此次会谈中确实作出了一项重大让步:他愿意接受特朗普提出的冻结前线作为谈判基础的提议。
特朗普在会晤后公开强调了这一想法。但由于普京坚持其极限立场——以及上周美俄两国外长的通话未能产生任何推动力——特朗普突然转变了立场,且立场强硬。特朗普之前口中的美俄布达佩斯峰会被取消了,华盛顿对俄的进一步制裁却开始了。
泽连斯基称,“据我所知,鲁比奥和拉夫罗夫之间的对话并不积极。阿拉斯加(峰会)之后,他们(俄方)也表现得如此。这已经是普京及其团队第三次或第四次拒绝特朗普的言论(立场)了”。
泽连斯基指出,特朗普因制裁在俄罗斯而“引发了非常糟糕的反应”,包括俄前总统梅德韦杰夫的挑衅性言论,以及俄官媒的“反美和反特朗普言论”。
泽连斯基还谈到,乌方估计美国对俄罗斯石油公司实施的新制裁可能导致石油出口减少50%,每月损失高达50亿美元。泽连斯基表示,希望随后能出台“新的二级制裁”和“美国国会采取的类似措施”。
泽连斯基坚称,让普京认真谈判的办法是赋予乌克兰打击俄罗斯腹地军事和能源目标的能力。泽连斯基透露,他告诉特朗普说,乌方甚至不需要立即使用“战斧”导弹。
泽连斯基辩称,如果普京知道不谈会“给俄罗斯的能源设施带来问题”,那么他就会谈。泽连斯基指出,“我们谈论的不仅仅是战斧导弹。美国有很多类似的导弹,而且不需要花太多时间训练。我认为对普京有效的唯一途径就是施加压力”。
泽连斯基在采访中还驳斥了最近有关俄军在前线取得进展的说法。他表示,已向特朗普明确表示这些说法是错误的,并称美国情报部门也显示“目前战场上无人获胜”。
泽连斯基称,乌克兰情报部门发现普京曾私下向盟友吹嘘,俄罗斯将在10月15日前占领整个顿巴斯地区,但这个最后期限已经过去。
泽连斯基续称,“俄罗斯做不到。他人手不够。他强大的营(级部队)们已经被摧毁了。如今在战场上,我们基本上停留在过去两三个月的立场上”。
泽连斯基说,乌方将军告诉他,2025年俄罗斯共有34.6万名军人伤亡。他说,这几乎与俄方当时动员的人数相同。各方对俄军伤亡人数的估计差异很大。
此外,特朗普预计将于本周晚些时候在韩国与中国国家主席习近平会面。泽连斯基表示,希望此次会晤能够促使中方承诺减少购买俄罗斯石油,作为与美国达成贸易协议的一部分。
泽连斯基说道:“我认为特朗普总统与习主席的对话非常重要。我认为,最强有力的一步是印度和中国不再从俄罗斯购买能源,首先是石油”。
北京方面强烈批评特朗普的石油制裁,迄今为止尚未表示愿意切断俄罗斯的石油供应。

© Doug Mills/The New York Times
Graham Platner’s campaign manager is stepping down after less than a week on the job, the latest departure on a campaign that has seen several high-profile shake-ups in recent weeks as it attempts to fend off a string of controversies.
The move, which was first reported by Axios, comes as the Maine Senate candidate has attracted a wave of criticism for troves of unearthed Reddit posts in which he endorsed political violence, downplayed concerns about sexual assault in the military and self-identified as a communist.
"Graham is a dear friend,” Kevin Brown, the former campaign manager, told POLITICO in a statement Monday. “I started this campaign Tuesday but found out Friday we have a baby on the way. Graham deserves someone who is 100% in on his race and we want to lean into this new experience as a family so it was best we step back sooner than later so Graham can get the Manager he deserves."
The progressive oyster farmer running to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has attempted to turn the page on the since-deleted comments, explaining in a video that the comments reflected his mental state following his military deployment to Afghanistan and that they are not representative of his present views.
POLITICO reported on Thursday that Brown, who has worked for Democrats like Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren, joined the campaign as manager after Genevieve McDonald, Platner’s former political director, resigned.
The campaign has also brought on an in-house attorney and hired a compliance firm tied to progressive candidates, in addition to sending non-disclosure agreements to staffers, POLITICO previously reported.
His campaign has also been bogged down by controversy surrounding a tattoo that resembles a Nazi symbol. Platner has said that he was not aware of the symbol’s implications when he got it nearly two decades ago and has since had the tattoo covered up.
Still, Platner has continued to poll ahead of his Democratic primary opponent, Maine Gov. Janet Mills, despite the party establishment throwing its weight behind Mills’ campaign.
© Sophie Park/Getty Images


© Russel Daniels for The New York Times

© Adam Gray for The New York Times
Americans are sharply divided on the NFL’s decision to feature Puerto Rican-born artist Bad Bunny at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show, according to a new survey by Quinnipiac University.
Overall, nearly half of respondents said they approve of the decision, with 29 percent disapproving and another 24 percent offering no opinion. While nearly 3 in 4 Democrats said they approve of the NFL’s decision, more than 3 in 5 Republicans oppose the move.
Opinions were also largely divided by race and age: Bad Bunny enjoyed significantly more support among Black and Hispanic adults than among white respondents, and his biggest contingent of support came from those aged 18-34.
The NFL, which has repeatedly drawn the ire of the MAGA movement in recent years, once again faced attacks from President Donald Trump and his supporters after announcing last month that Bad Bunny would take the stage at the most-watched live event in the country.
The artist, who was one of the top three most-streamed artists in the world on Spotify last year, has been vocal in his criticism of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, declining to schedule dates in the mainland U.S. during his upcoming world tour due to concerns about heightened ICE presence. The music video for his song “NUEVAYoL” also features a parody of Trump’s voice purporting to “apologize to the immigrants of America.”
MAGA firebrands quickly seized on the announcement to call the singer a “Trump hater,” and Turning Point USA announced a counterprogram halftime show, although the conservative organizing group has yet to announce featured performers.
Trump called the decision “absolutely ridiculous” in an interview with Newsmax’s Greg Kelly earlier this month, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has warned that ICE agents would be “all over” the Super Bowl.
Still, the NFL has stood by its decision, with Commissioner Roger Goodell reiterating last week that the league would move forward with the show despite blowback from conservatives.
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 16-20, with a random sample of 1,519 adults. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.


© Alejandro Granadillo/AP

REUTERS/Octavio JonesPeople in Jamaica are bracing for the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which is forecast to unleash destructive winds and bring catastrophic flooding to the Caribbean nation in the coming hours.
Melissa was upgraded to a category five hurricane - the maximum strength - early on Monday, the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
The authorities fear that Melissa, which has already been blamed for the deaths of four people on the island of Hispaniola, could become the strongest hurricane ever to hit Jamaica.

REUTERS/Gilbert BellamyThe Jamaican government has ordered evacuations for parts of the capital, Kingston, and the entire island has been classed as "threatened".
An update from the NHC at 09:00GMT said that Melissa was about 130 miles (209km) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.
It has maximum sustained wind speeds of 160mph (260km/h) and could strengthen further in the next 12 to 24 hours, forecasters warned.
If it continues on the forecasted track, its core is expected "to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across south-eastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the south-eastern Bahamas on Wednesday".
The storm is particularly slow moving, which makes it very dangerous in terms of expected rainfall amounts.
According to the NHC, 40 inches of rain (100cm) are possible in parts of Jamaica over the next four days.

REUTERS/Octavio JonesForecasters warn that destructive winds and life-threatening storm surges are expected to hit Jamaica overnight or early on Tuesday.
Jamaica's Prime Minister Andrew Holness has ordered the immediate evacuation of several vulnerable communities across the island.
Officials also urged residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas to seek shelter in safer areas.
Jamaica's Minister of Local Government, Desmond McKenzie, told local media that all of the island's 881 shelters were open.

Orlando Barría/EPA/ShutterstockAt least three people are known to have died and hundreds of homes have been flooded in Haiti as Melissa brought torrential rainfall to the island of Hispaniola.
In the Dominican Republic, located on the eastern side of Hispaniola, one person also died.
Local media identified the victim as a 79-year-old man who had been swept away by floodwaters in the capital, Santo Domingo.
A 13-year-old has also been reported missing after being dragged away by strong currents as he was swimming in the sea.
Several people were rescued after being trapped in their cars by the rising floodwater.

Getty ImagesLithuania will begin to shoot down balloons used to smuggle cigarettes from neighbouring Belarus, its prime minister has warned.
The measure comes after balloons entering Lithuanian airspace forced Vilnius Airport to close multiple times over the past week, including at the weekend, with the government also closing Belarus border crossings temporarily each time.
Border checkpoints will now be closed indefinitely in response to the helium weather balloons.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said "we are ready to take even the most severe actions when our airspace is violated".
Announcing the actions at a press conference on Monday, Ruginiene said the army was taking "all necessary measures" to shoot down balloons.
About the border closure, Ruginiene said diplomats will still be able to travel between the two countries, and EU citizens and Lithuanians can enter from Belarus, but no other movement will be allowed.
"In this way, we are sending a signal to Belarus and saying that no hybrid attack will be tolerated here, and we will take all the strictest measures to stop such attacks," she said.
There has been no immediate response from Belarus.
Lithuania plans to consult its allies over the threat posed from the balloons and may discuss activating Nato's Article 4 - a request for consultation by a Nato member country on any issue of concern, especially related to its security - she added.

State Border Guard Service via APLithuanian airports were closed three times at the weekend due to weather balloons from Belarus, affecting 112 flights and more than 16,500 passengers, according to Baltic News Service.
Earlier this month, 25 balloons entered Lithuania from Belarus, leading to 30 flight cancellations affecting 6,000 passengers, Lithuania's National Crisis Management Centre (NCMC) told the BBC.
The phenomenon is not new: as of 6 October, 544 balloons were recorded entering Lithuania from Belarus this year, an NCMC spokesman said, while 966 were recorded last year.
Other European airports - including in Copenhagen and Munich - have also been affected by air incursions, including drone sightings, in recent weeks.

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多位知情人士向政客新闻网欧洲版透露称,英国正推动与欧盟建立西方联盟,以遏制中国在全球钢铁市场的主导地位。英方希望,协调一致的举措能够帮助英国规避欧盟计划征收的新关税——这项50%的关税旨在保护欧盟钢铁生产商免受中国工业过剩产能的影响。脱欧后,英国发现自己受制于欧盟的贸易行动,目前正寻求从这些措施中获得豁免。
报导称,目前正在考虑的方案是英国和欧盟组建一个西方钢铁联盟——可能包括美国的参与——该联盟将协调关税政策,并给予成员国钢铁贸易优惠关税。
一位欧盟高级官员本月早些时候表示,欧盟“别无选择”,只能捍卫其钢铁产业,并警告称欧洲“因产能过剩问题而深陷困境”。尽管如此,该官员仍为与伦敦进行会谈敞开大门,敦促双方坐下来谈判。
另一位不愿透露姓名的欧盟官员指出,这一钢铁“俱乐部”的概念已流传了“相当长一段时间”,但现在看起来“更具吸引力”。他们补充说,欧盟和英国已在“钢铁产能过剩全球论坛”等多边论坛上开展合作。双方已同意协调即将实施的碳税政策,针对进口钢铁及其他通过高污染制造工艺生产的产品。
美国贸易代表格里尔(Jamieson Greer)本月早些时候曾呼吁加强针对中国钢铁的协调,警告称“现行国际贸易规则不充分”,并质疑“外国成员采取行动的政治意愿”。
英国目前一半的钢铁出口销往欧盟,欧盟即将实施的关税对英国生产商构成了严重威胁。“英国钢铁”负责人斯塔斯(Gareth Stace)表示,政府“必须专注于确保英国在欧盟配额中获得必要的豁免,并加强自身的贸易防御措施”。但这位游说团体负责人续指,更广泛的联盟有助于解决全球产能过剩问题,并将大量补贴的进口产品挡在英国门外。
一位英国政府发言人表示:“在欧盟最近宣布这一消息后,我们将继续与其保持沟通。我们也在与国际合作伙伴合作,寻找能够解决更大范围产能过剩问题的解决方案”。

(德国之声中文网)印度总理莫迪“放了鸽子”,将不会出席在马来西亚举行的东盟(ASEAN)峰会。美国总统特朗普是此次峰会的重量级嘉宾。莫迪的缺席引发外界猜测,美印之间围绕新德里持续购买俄罗斯石油而导致的关税谈判是否出现停滞。
莫迪在社交平台X上简要提及,他将以“线上方式”出席即将召开的东盟峰会。他在帖子中重点谈到与马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)的“友好关系”,以及推动东盟与印度全面战略伙伴关系的意愿。
莫迪的帖子未进一步说明他为何不前往马来西亚。
安瓦尔表示,他被告知莫迪因印度国内正在举行的排灯节(Diwali)庆祝活动而选择线上参会。
特朗普于10月26日抵达吉隆坡出席东盟峰会。这是他此次亚洲之行的第一站,期间包括与中国国家主席习近平的会面,之后他将前往韩国出席另一场峰会。
“与特朗普过从甚密的风险太高”
两国领导人都试图淡化关税僵局带来的紧张气氛。
上周二(10月21日),在白宫举行的排灯节特别活动上,特朗普表示,他与莫迪进行了“积极的对话”,并重申度将停止购买俄罗斯石油。
特朗普告诉记者:“我们关系很好。他不会再从俄罗斯购买太多石油。他们已经大幅削减,还会继续减少。”他补充说,莫迪希望“看到乌克兰战争结束”。
莫迪感谢特朗普的节日问候,并承诺加强反恐合作,但未提及关税或石油问题。
然而,莫迪缺席东盟峰会的消息,引发印度国内反对派的质疑。反对派猜想,莫迪担心与特朗普在国际舞台上握手合影,在国内会留下负面印象。
印度主要反对党国大党(Indian National Congress)高级成员贾伊拉姆·拉梅什(Jairam Ramesh)周四在X上表示,莫迪“与特朗普过从甚密的风险太高”。
拉梅什指出,特朗普不断就俄罗斯石油问题发表言论,并多次声称自己在4月阻止了一场印巴战争——这一说法被印度否认——这些都成为莫迪的政治负担。
此前一周,当特朗普首次声称莫迪“保证”停止购买俄罗斯石油时,印度反对派领袖拉胡尔·甘地(Rahul Gandhi)回应说:“莫迪害怕特朗普。”他指责莫迪让特朗普替印度宣布政策决定。
莫迪“热脸贴上冷屁股”?
今年2月,莫迪与特朗普在白宫热情拥抱。当时外界预期,两人将延续特朗普第一任期时的良好关系。
然而不久后,印度发现自己未能获得特殊待遇。特朗普推出的关税政策波及印度,对部分印度出口商品征收25%的关税。
8月,特朗普政府指责印度购买俄罗斯石油是在资助莫斯科的战争,并再加征25%的关税,使总税率达到50%。美印关系跌至数十年来的最低点。
上周,特朗普进一步搅动局势,声称莫迪已“向他保证”印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油。印度官员对此既未确认,也未否认。
对俄新制裁"火上浇油"
路透社上周四报道称,印度最大俄罗斯原油买家信实工业集团(Reliance Industries)正准备“大幅削减”俄油进口。
一家炼油厂消息人士在匿名条件下告诉路透社:“我们预计进口不会立即归零,因为还有部分货物通过中间商流入市场。”
信实集团发言人表示:“俄油进口的调整正在进行中,公司将完全遵守印度政府的指导方针。”
该报道发布之际,美国宣布对俄罗斯两大石油巨头——俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和卢克石油公司(Lukoil)实施新的制裁。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)表示,这两家公司是克里姆林宫“战争机器”的资金来源。
这是特朗普第二任期以来首次直接针对俄罗斯战争进行的制裁。制裁内容包括冻结两家俄企在美国的全部资产,并允许对与其交易的外国银行实施二级制裁。
这意味着,印度的银行若继续协助俄油交易,可能面临处罚。
美国财政部规定,企业必须在11月21日前结束与上述两家俄企的交易。分析人士指出,制裁的影响取决于美国执行力度及各国银行的配合程度。
战争财难以为继?
尽管关于俄油的传闻不断,印度外交部仍强调,国家优先考虑能源独立和消费者利益。
印度外交部发言人兰迪尔·贾伊斯瓦尔(Randhir Jaiswal)上周表示,华盛顿有意深化能源合作,双方正在进行相关讨论。
贾伊斯瓦尔强调,印度进口石油的首要任务是“在不稳定的能源环境下保障印度消费者的利益”。
位于新德里的能源分析师苏米特·里托利亚(Sumit Ritolia)对德国之声表示,印度“可能会减少”俄罗斯石油进口,但“短期内不会降至零”。
印度自2021年至2024年从俄罗斯进口的原油量增长近19倍,从每天10万桶增至190万桶,使俄罗斯成为印度最大的原油供应国。
2022年,在莫斯科发动战争并遭受制裁后,新德里发起了战争财,以折扣价购买俄油。
印度方面曾辩解说,美国一度也支持印度购买俄油,以稳定全球油价。
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中国麋鹿从本土灭绝到2025年野生种群突破1.4万只,是全球濒危物种保护的经典范例。1985年,玛雅和汪松等专家学者直接参与的中英麋鹿重引入项目,是这个生态奇迹的历史起点
“积极参与国际交流、加入国际组织、参与规则制定,对我们来说,也是更为积极有利的姿态”
(本文首发于南方人物周刊)
南方人物周刊记者 徐梅
发自:北京
责任编辑:陈雅峰

江苏盐城大丰区麋鹿自然保护区野鹿荡,麋鹿在树林里张望(视觉中国/图)
“把麋鹿从英国重引入到中国,这是件大好事啊!一定能办成的,玛雅你别着急,我马上来帮你联系一下中国城乡建设环境保护部(中国生态环境部前身)。”
92岁的汪松先生行动敏捷,耳聪目明,回忆起四十年前的往事清晰如昨。
约访这位动物学和生物多样性保护专家时,我非常忐忑,担心打扰到老先生,也不知道老人家是否还有足够的精力来接受《南方人物周刊》的专访。
没料到电话那头是一位娴熟使用微信的长者,更没想到采访当天,我和摄影记者刚到他家楼下,汪老已经提前下楼在大厅等着我们。老先生穿着粉色T恤、卡其色长裤,优雅潇洒。他和老伴儿单独住,家里平常也没有保姆阿姨。他轻快地领着我们上楼,电梯口放着一辆自行车,“前些年,我还骑车出门呢。”
四十年前参与麋鹿回归的专家组成员好几位都不在了。汪老笑言,作为亲历者中的“濒危物种”,有责任接受采访,把那段国际合作交流的美好往事讲述出来。
“玛雅是个关键人物,”汪松先生一声叹息,说只可惜玛雅不能亲自讲述这一切了。2016年9月,玛雅不幸因病辞世。
在她去世的前一年,玛雅连同中国方面的伙伴们,策划了纪念麋鹿回归中国三十年庆典活动。他们特别聘请了一位设计师,设计了一套以麋鹿为主题的靠垫儿、骨瓷杯和骨瓷纪念盘,作为礼品赠送给从世界各地前来参加“麋鹿及生物多样性保护与管理国际研讨会”的嘉宾。
中国麋鹿从本土灭绝到2025年野生种群突破1.4万只,是全球濒危物种保护的经典范例。1985年,玛雅和汪松等专家学者直接参与的中英麋鹿重引入项目,是这个生态奇迹的历史起点。
2025年10月24、25日,国内外专家学者和生态保护组织负责人将再聚北京,庆祝麋鹿回归四十周年。
“岁月与俱深,麋鹿相为友。”十年过去,汪松先生客厅餐椅上摆放的还是这个靠垫,质地精良的蓝色丝绸上用中英文印着乌邦寺(Woburn Abbey)和麋鹿。

1955年,汪松参与长白山野外科学考察(受访者提供/图)
将Woburn Abbey翻译为“乌邦寺”不知是当年谁的神来之笔。这座位于英格兰贝德福德郡的古老庄园,距离伦敦约80公里,原本是一座修道院。16世纪英王亨利八世推行宗教改革时,修道院被解散,土地被授予罗素家族。这个富甲一方的家族几百年来一直居住于此,是英国最显赫的贵族家族之一;自1694年获得公爵头衔之后,代代相传,迄今已传至第十五世贝德福德公爵(Duke of Bedford)。
乐于冒险、热爱自然的家族基因使得乌邦寺产生了很多新鲜事物,英式下午茶和比莱特兄弟更早的飞行试验都出现在这里。继承祖产的十一世公爵赫尔布兰德是一位动物学家,正是他出于对麋鹿种群延续的远见,在1894到1901年间,出资将散落在欧洲各地动物园的18只麋鹿归集到乌邦寺,使得它们具备了能够健康繁衍的种群基数。这18只麋鹿为这个种群留存了最后的“星火”。
十五世贝德福德公爵安德鲁是乌邦寺现今的主人,他与中国缘分颇深。1985年,23岁的他和庄园中的首席饲养员一同护送第一批麋鹿回到中国。其后,他又数次到访中国。
玛利亚·博依德(朋友们都称呼她为玛雅)1984年来中国,正是受安德鲁的父亲罗宾所托,接洽将麋鹿送还中国之事。麋鹿是玛雅在牛津大学攻读博士学位时的研究方向,她的丈夫约翰与罗宾相识于孩提时代。
麋鹿又称“四不像”,没错,就是《封神演义》中姜子牙的坐骑。作为湿地旗舰物种,麋鹿为中国特有,历史上曾广泛分布于长江流域、黄河流域的温暖湿润之地,是民间传说中的瑞兽。由于人口增多和气候变迁,晚清时野生麋鹿已近灭绝,仅剩最后一群两百余头圈养在北京南海子的皇家猎苑之中。到1900年,这一群麋鹿也因洪水和战乱消亡了。
至于它们中的一支又是如何漂洋过海去往欧洲的,则要说到那位在中国发现大熊猫、金丝猴的法国神父大卫。1866年,他从南海子猎苑守卫那里买到两只死去的麋鹿,将它们的皮毛和骨骼寄到了法国巴黎自然历史博物馆。馆方认定这是一个全新的物种,并将之命名为“大卫鹿”。此后,欧洲列强均向清王室索要麋鹿,麋鹿就此散落开来。

1984年,玛雅在北京南海子麋鹿苑(受访者提供/图)
玛雅出生在斯洛伐克,父亲是一个研究所的负责人。研究所坐落在喀尔巴阡山,深林草甸之中常有野鹿出没,她从小就听当地的老人家讲各种与鹿有关的故事。其中,最打动她的是一种中国独有的鹿,“在中国已经灭绝,却在英格兰被拯救了。”
她没想到自己长大之后会与那群中国麋鹿的后代相遇。作为一名动物学家,除了实地观察乌邦寺的麋鹿群,她还与世界各国的动物园、野生动物园和研究机构联系,了解掌握麋鹿的历史分布和物种存量。
根据玛雅和其他学者的统计调查,截至1979年年底,全世界圈养的麋鹿总数为994只,它们全都是乌邦寺鹿群的后代。自1944年起,十二世公爵哈斯廷将乌邦寺麋鹿送给世界各地的动物园,希望通过世界范围的开枝散叶,避免因过于集中而带来的遗传风险和意外灭绝。
曾经广布麋鹿的中国,留存和发掘了许多麋鹿化石,尽管麋鹿当时在中国已经不复存在,但仍然是学术研究的富矿。1980年代初,与中国学术界展开国际交流缺乏途径的玛雅想了各种办法与中国同行取得联系。她先是通过中国驻伦敦大使馆,拿到了上海自然历史博物馆的曹克清的联系方式;后来又给在《动物园动物》期刊上发表过学术文章的中国学者谭邦杰写信。一个月后,玛雅惊喜地收到了一封来自中国的回信。

1985年,玛雅和麋鹿回归专家组组长王宗祎在南海子(受访者提供/图)
那是一次神奇的连接,她手里拿着的回信是谭邦杰在北京动物园北门外的一间小平房里用一台
校对:赵立宇
Centrist Democrats have a plan for their party to win again: Talk more about the economy and less about democracy. Reject corporate interests and ideological purity tests. Keep the progressive policies that are popular — like expanding health care and raising the minimum wage — and moderate on issues like immigration and crime.
Those are among the takeaways laid out in an expansive report Monday from WelcomePAC, which supports center-left candidates, on how Democrats can rebound from last year’s electoral wipeout in 2026 and 2028.
The 58-page prescription comes as Democrats continue to war over the direction of their party nearly a year after their national shellacking. And it drops a week before a slate of gubernatorial and mayoral contests that will serve as the first major temperature check of the electorate since 2024 and President Donald Trump retaking the Oval Office.
It features input from a who’s who of top Democratic consultants — including David Axelrod; James Carville; David Plouffe, a top adviser to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign; Lis Smith; and former Biden White House spokesperson Andrew Bates — as well as analysts and strategists like Nate Silver, Sarah Longwell and former Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois.
The report is less an autopsy of the 2024 election — it spends a scant five pages on former President Joe Biden’s and Harris’ campaigns — and more so an indictment of the party’s leftward shift since the Obama administration and the donors, campaign operatives and progressive advocacy groups the authors blame for putting Democrats in an unwinnable position.
It largely echoes what moderate Democrats have been saying loudly for months — that the party should be running to the center and focusing on kitchen table issues.
It uses polling data to reinforce the message many centrist Democrats believe voters sent the party in 2024: that voters felt Democrats were prioritizing democracy, abortion and identity over top-of-mind issues like the economy, immigration and crime. It argues that moderate candidates tend to overperform progressive ones, citing centrist Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) as models for how the party should message on border security and the economy.
And Democrats “should distance ourselves from the Biden administration,” the authors write, “particularly by critiquing the Biden administration’s approach to border security and the cost of living.” Harris, they posit, lost in part because of her failure to do so — and because voters couldn’t let go of her past progressive policies even as she ran a more moderate campaign.
The report doesn’t call for a wholesale rejection of progressive stances. Expanding access to public health care, making the wealthy “pay their fair share” in taxes and raising the minimum wage are all popular with voters, and WelcomePAC believes the party should continue to focus on them. Democrats, the authors say, should emulate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee for New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani’s “relentless focus” on affordability.
But they also say Democrats should focus less on “lower-salience issues where our views are unpopular,” such as transgender athletes. They insist that running against the establishment — as is en vogue these days — doesn’t have to mean running toward the left. And they contend that simply running younger candidates “is not a panacea.”
WelcomePAC made no mention of next week’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia. But their strategy will undergo an early test in both states, where the party has put forward a pair of moderate lawmakers with military and national security backgrounds who are running campaigns centered on affordability. Democrats are favored to win both races, though Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s contest in New Jersey is expected to be far closer than former Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s in Virginia.
WelcomePAC warned against drawing conclusions from the elections heading into 2028 in its report, insisting that “doing well in midterms and special elections does not guarantee Democrats anywhere close to the same results in a presidential race” because less-engaged voters tend to skip those intermediate contests.
But Democrats across the ideological spectrum will undoubtedly be scanning the results of next week’s elections in two states that stayed blue in 2024 but shifted toward Trump for signs of what is — and isn’t — working for the party heading into a high-stakes midterm election and the critical presidential contest to follow.


© Richard Drew/AP

在德国外交部长瓦德富尔(Johann Wadephul)推迟访华计划后,德中两国官员周一试图淡化双方之间紧张局势加剧的迹象。
瓦德富尔原计划于周日开启访华行程,他本应成为默茨总理领导的德国政府中首位访华的部长级官员。路透社报导指,但由于中方仅同意其一项会晤请求,瓦德富尔的行程在最后一刻取消。此次访问取消正值中德关系紧张之际,中国政府对芯片和稀土的出口限制正损害德国经济,而柏林方面对中方支持俄罗斯及其在印太地区的行动发表了越来越强硬的言论。
德国政府副发言人迈尔(Steffen Meyer)表示,德方仍希望与中方进行“尊重且良好的交流”,并认为推迟访华行程不会“对德国联邦政府的进一步政策产生任何重大影响”。
北京方面,面对德新社记者提问,德国外交部发言人表示,除双方外长举行会见外,中方没有确认其他会见安排,中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在周一的例行记者会上回答说:“中方始终从战略高度和长远角度看待和发展中德关系,中德作为大国和世界主要经济体,双方合作互惠互利。特别是在当前形势下,双方更应该坚持相互尊重、平等相待、合作共赢,推动双边关系沿着正确轨道向前发展”。
美国总统特朗普的关税政策对中德这两个出口导向型经济体造成了沉重打击,导致中国在今年前八个月超越美国,成为德国最大的贸易伙伴。中方数据显示,德国是中国在欧洲最大的贸易伙伴,预计到2025年,双边贸易额将超过2000亿美元。中国德国商会曾表示对瓦德富尔的行程取消感到遗憾,并指企业需要更清晰地了解双边问题。
克罗尔-皮茨(Andreas Kroll-Pietsch)是一家大宗商品贸易公司的总经理,他原计划跟随与瓦德富尔同行的商务代表团访华。克罗尔-皮茨指出,自己无法对行程取消发表评论。但他说道:“出于政治动机的贸易冲突和出口限制破坏了繁荣,必须通过建设性对话来解决。进一步升级局势不利于德国经济”。
自今年德国大选以来,中德双方均未进行任何正式访问。相比之下,中国外长王毅今年已访问了奥地利、意大利、波兰、斯洛文尼亚和瑞士。
自5月份就任德国外长以来,瓦德富尔的对华立场发言日益强硬。他批评中方支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争,在印太地区“日益具有侵略性的行为”,以及对稀土和半导体的出口限制。
此外,德国财政部一位官员表示,德中高级别财金对话可能继续进行的计划仍在进行中。现在轮到中国接待德国财长了。默茨(Friedrich Merz)原本预计很快也将访华。迈尔表示,瓦德富尔访问的推迟不会影响其他内阁成员可能的对华访问。

(德国之声中文网) 美国民主党前副总统候选人、在2024年总统选举中败选的卡玛拉· 哈里斯(Kamala Harris),不排除再次竞选白宫职位的可能性。在英国广播公司(BBC)定于本周日播出的采访中,哈里斯表示,她“可能”会再次竞选美国总统,并称自己“没有结束”美国的政治生涯。
这位61岁的政治家强调,她的年轻侄孙女们“在其有生之年一定会”看到一位女性总统出现在椭圆形办公室。
仍未做出决定,但被视为“重量级”人物
哈里斯是在2024年总统竞选中接替前总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)参选的。拜登当时因精神状况日益衰退,在2024年7月迫于党内压力放弃了竞选。由于拜登退出较晚,哈里斯的竞选活动时间非常短。在11月的选举中,她最终明显输给了特朗普。不过,她仍被视为党内潜在的“重量级”人物。
哈里斯补充说,她接下来的职业规划尚未确定:“除了我现在正在做的事情,我还没有决定未来要做什么。”她补充说,她的整个职业生涯都致力于服务社区,“这流淌在我的血液里,有很多参与的方式。”
哈里斯的此次BBC采访是在她回忆录出版后进行的,她在回忆录中将乔·拜登失败的总统竞选称为“轻率”。哈里斯还指责白宫工作人员在她成为总统候选人后,没有给予她足够的支持。
哈里斯此前在7月底宣布,她将不会竞选她的家乡州加利福尼亚(California)的州长一职。该州选举将在2026年举行。现任州长、民主党人加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)在担任两届州长后,将不能再次参选。
纽森也抱有雄心,准备2028
纽森被认为是2028年美国总统职位的有力竞争者,也是民主党内可能的候选人。这位58岁的州长本周日向CBS新闻证实,他将在明年美国中期选举后,认真考虑竞选总统的计划。
当拜登退出白宫竞选时,纽森曾被立即视为民主党可能的替代候选人,但他最终未能获选。
纽森曾是旧金山(San Francisco)市长(2004年至2011年),自2019年起担任加利福尼亚州州长。他一直是特朗普总统的著名批评者之一,并因模仿特朗普在社交媒体上使用全大写字母和频繁使用人工智能生成图像的风格而惹怒了这位共和党领袖。
纽森还与特朗普在移民政策、国民警卫队部署和重新划分选区等问题上发生过冲突。这位加利福尼亚州州长是该州重新划分国会选区的主要推手,旨在抵消其他州由共和党主导的选区重划的影响。纽森曾称特朗普是“一个入侵物种”,指责他“正在破坏联盟、真相、信任、传统和体制”。
尽管根据美国宪法,特朗普不能寻求第三个总统任期,但他今年早些时候曾暗示可能会为此努力,称“有一些方法可以做到”。
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© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

Getty ImagesThe prime minister has said Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has "questions to answer", after one of his MPs complained about adverts being "full" of black and Asian people.
Sir Keir Starmer told the BBC the comments were "shocking racism" and "the sort of thing that'll tear our country apart".
"It tells you everything about Reform," he said, adding that Farage "can't even call out racism".
Sarah Pochin has apologised for her remarks, saying they were "phrased poorly" but maintained that many adverts were "unrepresentative of British society".
Labour chairwoman Anna Turley has written to Farage to ask if he endorses Pochin's comments and whether he will withdraw the Reform UK whip from her - meaning she would sit as an independent MP.
Asked if Pochin was racist to say what she did, Sir Keir told BBC North West Tonight: "Yes, she was. It's shocking racism and it's the sort of thing that'll tear our country apart. And it tells you everything about Reform.
"Nigel Farage has some questions to answer. Because either he doesn't consider it racist, which in my view is shocking in itself, or he does think it's racist and he's shown absolutely no leadership."
On Sunday cabinet ministers Wes Streeting and David Lammy also branded Pochin's comments racist in interviews.
Farage has not yet responded to the row but is due to give a press conference later on the national grooming gangs inquiry, where he is expected to be asked about Pochin.
Pochin was speaking during a TalkTV phone-in on Saturday, when she said she agreed with a caller on who complained about the "demographics" of advertising.
The Runcorn and Helsby MP said the viewer was "absolutely right" and "it drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people".
She said that it did not reflect society and "your average white person" is "not represented anymore".
In a social media post later on Saturday, Pochin said her comments "were phrased poorly and I unreservedly apologise for any offence caused, which was not my intention".
"The point I was making is that many British TV adverts have gone DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] mad and are now unrepresentative of British society as a whole," she said.
She cited a Channel 4 study which found that the proportion of adverts featuring black people jumped after the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, from 37% in 2020 to 51% in 2022.
"Representation should reflect the diversity of modern Britain, but it should also be proportionate and inclusive of everyone," she added.
Pochin was backed by Reform UK's head of policy, Zia Yusuf, who told Sky News on Sunday that she was "right to apologise" but was raising "a very valid point we must be able to talk about".
The Liberal Democrats have also called on Farage to suspend Pochin from the party, while urging the government and the Conservatives to back a parliamentary motion rebuking the MP for her "racist and inexcusable remarks".
The party's home affairs spokesman Max Wilkinson said: "Sarah Pochin's remarks were blatantly racist.
"Decent MPs from across party lines should now come together to condemn this disgraceful behaviour and show the public that this will never be tolerated by Parliament."
He also accused Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp of being "spineless" for "failing to immediately call out Pochin's racist remarks for what they were".
Asked about her comments on Sunday, Philp told the BBC: "It's certainly not language that I would use and I don't think politicians should speak in those terms."
He later told LBC the way Ms Pochin made her comments was "racist", adding: "She should absolutely not have said that. It was completely wrong."


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REUTERS/Octavio JonesPeople in Jamaica are bracing for the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which is forecast to unleash destructive winds and bring catastrophic flooding to the Caribbean nation in the coming hours.
Melissa was upgraded to a category five hurricane - the maximum strength - early on Monday, the US-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
The authorities fear that Melissa, which has already been blamed for the deaths of four people on the island of Hispaniola, could become the strongest hurricane ever to hit Jamaica.

REUTERS/Gilbert BellamyThe Jamaican government has ordered evacuations for parts of the capital, Kingston, and the entire island has been classed as "threatened".
An update from the NHC at 09:00GMT said that Melissa was about 130 miles (209km) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.
It has maximum sustained wind speeds of 160mph (260km/h) and could strengthen further in the next 12 to 24 hours, forecasters warned.
If it continues on the forecasted track, its core is expected "to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across south-eastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the south-eastern Bahamas on Wednesday".
The storm is particularly slow moving, which makes it very dangerous in terms of expected rainfall amounts.
According to the NHC, 40 inches of rain (100cm) are possible in parts of Jamaica over the next four days.

REUTERS/Octavio JonesForecasters warn that destructive winds and life-threatening storm surges are expected to hit Jamaica overnight or early on Tuesday.
Jamaica's Prime Minister Andrew Holness has ordered the immediate evacuation of several vulnerable communities across the island.
Officials also urged residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas to seek shelter in safer areas.
Jamaica's Minister of Local Government, Desmond McKenzie, told local media that all of the island's 881 shelters were open.

Orlando Barría/EPA/ShutterstockAt least three people are known to have died and hundreds of homes have been flooded in Haiti as Melissa brought torrential rainfall to the island of Hispaniola.
In the Dominican Republic, located on the eastern side of Hispaniola, one person also died.
Local media identified the victim as a 79-year-old man who had been swept away by floodwaters in the capital, Santo Domingo.
A 13-year-old has also been reported missing after being dragged away by strong currents as he was swimming in the sea.
Several people were rescued after being trapped in their cars by the rising floodwater.

PA MediaRachel Reeves is to meet ministers from Saudi Arabia and Qatar on Monday and Tuesday - the first UK chancellor to visit the Gulf in six years.
A series of two-way trade and investment deals are expected to be announced during her visit to the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, dubbed the "Davos in the Desert".
The government is keen to promote the UK as a stable and attractive place to do business for the countries that make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).
Back in the UK, there are warnings the government's flagship Employment Rights Bill, giving workers new rights and protections on sick pay and unfair dismissal from their first day on the job, will deter job creation.
After meeting senior Saudi royals on Monday she will join dozens of UK and international CEOs on Tuesday during the FII event.
Following a trade deal with India, a tariff deal with the US and a closer reset with the EU, the chancellor is keen to press ahead with a trade deal with the GCC, which includes Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Reeves said: "Our number one priority is growth, so I am taking Britain's offer of stability, regulatory agility and world-class expertise directly to one of the world's most important trade and investment hubs, making that case in our national interest."
However, even by the government's own estimates, such a deal would add only £1.6bn a year to UK GDP, which is less than a tenth of 1%.
While the chancellor bangs the drum for Britain abroad, at home the workers' rights bill, which will be considered by the House of Lords on Tuesday, is facing criticism from unexpected quarters.
The Resolution Foundation, which has enjoyed the ear of the Labour Party for many years, has joined a chorus of business voices warning that conferring additional rights and protections around unfair dismissal and sick pay to employees from day one on the job would "inhibit hiring" at a time of rising workplace vacancies.
On Friday, 13 business groups, including the CBI, Make UK and the Federation of Small Business, wrote a letter urging support in the House of Lords for an amendment that would bring in the new rights after six months.
While the government has been praised in business circles for concluding trade deals, some say it has done a better job convincing foreign investors than reassuring UK businesses, many of which have been hit with a £25bn tax rise in the last budget and are fearful of potential further tax rises in her next one.