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中国石油需求峰值预计延后至2040年

中石油经济技术研究院预计,中国石油需求峰值预计出现在2040年,比去年预测的2030年延后10年。

金融界AI电报星期四(12月11日)报道,中石油经研院称,到2035年,中国化石能源需求将达到127亿吨标准油当量,较2025年增加4亿吨。

石油需求峰值预计将出现在2040年,而去年预测为2030年,且峰值水平将高于此前预测。

经研院预计,到2030年,全球液化天然气总产能将超过每年7亿吨。全球天然气需求将于2040至2045年达到峰值,为5万亿立方米,较2024年展望水平增长11%。

Hundreds of items taken in 'high value' Bristol Museum archive raid

Avon and Somerset Police A blurry CCTV image of four men wearing jackets and baseball caps in a street at night time. Avon and Somerset Police
Police want to speak to these four men after more than 600 artefacts were stolen

More than 600 artefacts "of significant cultural value" have been stolen from Bristol Museum's archive in a "high-value" raid, police say.

Four men gained entry to a building in the Cumberland Basin area of the city in the early hours of 25 September, Avon and Somerset Police said.

Items from the museum's British Empire and Commonwealth collection were stolen and detectives are now trying to trace four males captured in the area on CCTV.

"The theft of many items which carry a significant cultural value is a significant loss for the city," Det Con Dan Burgan said.

Avon and Somerset Police Two CCTV images places side by side. One is a man in a dark jacket, grey trousers and white hat and carrying a bag. The second is a group of all four males in the street, they all have hats or their hoods up. All are carrying bags. Avon and Somerset Police
The men are described as being white and were all wearing jackets and baseball caps

"These items, many of which were donations, form part of a collection that provides insight into a multi-layered part of British history, and we are hoping that members of the public can help us to bring those responsible to justice," he added.

"So far, our enquiries have included significant CCTV enquiries as well as forensic investigations and speaking liaising with the victims."

Police are keen to speak to anyone who recognises the men captured on CCTV, or who may have seen possible stolen items being sold online.

All of the men are thought to be white. The first was described as of medium to stocky build and was wearing a white cap, black jacket, light-coloured trousers and black trainers.

The second was described as being of slim build and was wearing a grey, hooded jacket, black trousers and black trainers.

The third was wearing a green cap, black jacket, light-coloured shorts and white trainers. Police said he appeared to walk with a slight limp in his right leg.

The fourth was described as being of large build and was wearing a two-toned orange and navy or black puffy jacket, black trousers and black and white trainers.

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'Architects of AI' named Time Magazine's Person of the Year

Getty Images Nvidia boss Jensen Huang in side-profileGetty Images
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang is among the tech bosses the magazine has put on its biggest cover of the year

Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2025 is not a single person.

Instead, the magazine has given its annual award recognising the year's most influential figure to "the architects" of artificial intelligence (AI).

Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, Meta head Mark Zuckerberg, X owner Elon Musk and AI "godmother" Fei-Fei Li are among those depicted on one of the magazine's two covers.

Experts say it highlights how quickly AI, and the firms behind it, are reshaping society.

It comes as a boom in the technology, ushered in by OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, continues at pace.

The firm said in September its chatbot is used by around 700 million people every week.

Big tech firms are pouring billions of dollars into AI and the infrastructure behind it in a bid to stay ahead of rivals.

There are two covers this year - one a piece of art depicting the letters AI surrounded by workers, and another a painting focused on the tech leaders themselves.

Time Eight people in suits sitting on a girder with a cityscape behind them. Time
The cover references the classic New York photograph "Lunch atop a Skyscraper" - but with tech figures in place of ironworkers

At Meta, Zuckerberg has reportedly focused the firm around the tech, including its AI chatbot, which it has embedded in its popular apps.

He, along with Huang, Musk and Li, appeared on the cover alongside Lisa Su, boss of chipmaker AMD, OpenAI head Sam Altman, Anthropic chief Dario Amodei, and Google's AI lab lead Sir Demis Hassabis.

"This year, the debate about how to wield AI responsibly gave way to a sprint to deploy it as fast as possible," Time said as it announced its new covers.

"But the risk-averse are no longer in the driver's seat.

"Thanks to Huang, Son, Altman, and other AI titans, humanity is now flying down the highway, all gas no brakes, toward a highly automated and highly uncertain future."

And the magazine's editor-in-chief Sam Jacobs said "no one" had as great an impact in 2025 than "the individuals who imagined, designed, and built AI".

"Humanity will determine AI's path forward, and each of us can play a role in determining AI's structure and future," he said.

Time The other Time cover shows the letters AI, with construction workers surrounding it. It is as if they are building a giant statue of the letters out of computer parts.Time

Forrester analyst Thomas Husson said 2025 could be seen as a "tipping point" for how frequently AI is now used in our day-to-day lives.

"Most consumers use it without even being aware of it," he told the BBC.

He said AI is now being crammed into hardware, software and services - meaning it its uptake is "much faster than during the Internet or mobile revolutions".

Some people now choose chatbots over search engines and social media to plan holidays, find Christmas gifts and discover recipes.

Others, such as those worried about its energy use, training data and impact on their livelihoods, are opting-out entirely.

Nik Kairinos, founder and chief executive of lab Fountech AI, said the honour was "an honest assessment" of the tech's influence, but he felt "recognition should not be confused with readiness".

"At this moment, AI can still be a saviour or scourge to humanity," he said.

"We are still in the early stages of building AI systems that are dependable, accountable, and aligned with human values.

"For those of us developing the technology and bringing AI tools to market, there is huge responsibility."

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Austria bans headscarves in schools for under-14s

Getty Images A woman wearing a blue headscarf seen from behind as she sits in a chair in a classroomGetty Images

Austria has passed a law banning headscarves in schools for girls under the age of 14.

The conservative-led coalition of three centrist parties, the ÖVP, the SPÖ and the Neos, says the law is a "clear commitment to gender equality", but critics say it will fuel anti-Muslim feeling in the country and could be unconstitutional.

The measure will apply to girls in both public and private schools.

In 2020, a similar headscarf ban for girls under 10 was struck down by the Constitutional Court, because it specifically targeted Muslims.

The terms of the new law mean girls under 14 will be forbidden from wearing "traditional Muslim" head coverings such as hijabs or burkas.

If a student violates the ban, they must have a series of discussions with school authorities and their legal guardians. If there are repeated violations, the child and youth welfare agency must be notified.

As a last resort, families or guardians could be fined up to €800 (£700).

Members of the government say this is about empowering young girls, arguing it is to protect them "from oppression".

Speaking ahead of the vote, the parliamentary leader of the liberal Neos party, Yannick Shetty said it was "not a measure against a religion. It is a measure to protect the freedom of girls in this country," and added that the ban would affect about 12,000 children.

The opposition far-right Freedom Party of Austria, the FPÖ, which voted in favour of the ban, said it did not go far enough.

It described the ban as "a first step", which should be widened to include all pupils and school staff.

"There needs to be a general ban on headscarves in schools; political Islam has no place here", the FPÖ's spokesperson on families Ricarda Berger said.

Sigrid Maurer from the opposition Greens called the new law "clearly unconstitutional".

The official Islamic Community in Austria, the IGGÖ, said the ban violated fundamental rights and would split society.

In a statement on its website, it said "instead of empowering children, they will be stigmatised and marginalised."

The IGGÖ said it would review "the constitutionality of the law and take all necessary steps."

"The Constitutional Court already ruled unequivocally in 2020 that such a ban is unconstitutional, as it specifically targets a religious minority and violates the principle of equality," the IGGÖ said.

The government says it has tried to avoid that.

"Will it pass muster with the Constitutional Court? I don't know. We have done our best," Shetty said.

An awareness-raising trial period will start in February 2026, with the ban fully going into force next September - the beginning of the new school year.

Hunger Games fans thrilled by return of Jennifer Lawrence

Lionsgate Still from Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 shows Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson in costume, being addressed by a third character just off-screen.Lionsgate
Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson were last seen in 2015's Mockingjay Part 2

Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are reportedly set to return to the Hunger Games in next year's highly anticipated prequel.

The pair last starred together in Mockingjay - Part 2, the climactic installment of the original film series.

US magazines The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline reported that Jennifer, 35, return as Katniss Everdeen while Josh, 33, will reprise his role of Peeta Mellark in The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping.

They suggest the actors will appear in a flash-forward sequence which features in the novel the new film's based on.

BBC Newsbeat's approached production company Lionsgate for comment.

Lawrence, who became a household name playing Katniss, previously said she'd be "totally" up for coming back as the character.

And last month Josh Hutcherson told US magazine Variety he'd "be there in a heartbeat" if he was asked to come back.

"It would not take any convincing at all," he said.

Hunger Games fans were ecstatic at news the beloved characters would be making a new appearance.

One wrote: "For non-Hunger Games fans this is like Rihanna returning to music."

Another added: "It's basically Jesus returning to Earth."

But there were some who weren't happy to see the information revealed, saying it could have been kept an "emotional" surprise.

Getty Images A shelf in a bookshop loaded with Hunger Games books and stationery bearing the series logo of a golden bird inside a burning ring, and magazines bearing portraits of Jennifer Lawrence.Getty Images
The Hunger Games is a global best-selling franchise which still lasts in popular culture today

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping also stars McKenna Grace, Maya Hawke and Ralph Fiennes and is due to hit cinemas in November 2026.

Author Suzanne Collins' book of the same name sold more than 1.5 million copies worldwide during its release week earlier this year - the biggest debut for one of her books.

The Hunger Games series has reportedly made $3.3bn since the release of the first movie in 2012, and a theatre version recently launched.

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Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 weekdays - or listen back here.

Venezuelan Nobel winner tells BBC she knows 'risks' of Oslo trip after months in hiding

EPA/Shutterstock Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado stands on a balcony with photographers and a hanging light fixture in a hotel room behind her. It is nighttime and she has her hand over her heart. She is smiling and wearing dark clothing.EPA/Shutterstock

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared in Oslo, Norway after winning the Nobel Peace Prize, waving from the balcony of the Grand Hotel after months in hiding.

Machado made the covert journey despite a travel ban, and has mostly laid low since Venezuela's disputed presidential election in 2024. She last appeared in public in January.

From a balcony on Wednesday with a crowd cheering below, Machado placed her hand on her heart and sang with her supporters, before walking outside to greet them in person.

Her daughter, Ana Corina Sosa, accepted the award on her mother's behalf earlier in the day.

The Nobel Institute awarded Machado the Peace Prize this year for "her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy" in Venezuela.

Afterwards, Machado went the outside to greet her supporters, who waited behind metal barricades on the street.

"Maria!" "Maria, here!" they shouted in Spanish, as many held their phones aloft to record the historic moment.

At one point, Machado climbed over the barriers to join them.

Reuters Maria Corina Machado jumps over barricades outside the Grand Hotel in Oslo to greet cheering supporters as security looks on.Reuters
Maria Corina Machado jumps over barricades outside the Grand Hotel in Oslo to greet cheering supporters.

Her appearance was preceded by speculation that she would travel to Norway for the award ceremony.

The Nobel committee shared audio of Machado declaring, "I will be in Oslo, I am on my way."

After her Peace Prize win, Machado made a point to praise US President Donald Trump, who is open about his own ambitions for the Peace Prize and is locked in ongoing military tension with Venezuela.

On Wednesday, Trump announced the US military had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. His administration alleges the vessel was under sanction and was involved in an "illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations".

The Venezuelan government accused the US of theft and piracy.

Venezuelan Nobel winner tells BBC she knows 'risks' of Oslo trip after months in hiding

EPA/Shutterstock Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado stands on a balcony with photographers and a hanging light fixture in a hotel room behind her. It is nighttime and she has her hand over her heart. She is smiling and wearing dark clothing.EPA/Shutterstock

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared in Oslo, Norway after winning the Nobel Peace Prize, waving from the balcony of the Grand Hotel after months in hiding.

Machado made the covert journey despite a travel ban, and has mostly laid low since Venezuela's disputed presidential election in 2024. She last appeared in public in January.

From a balcony on Wednesday with a crowd cheering below, Machado placed her hand on her heart and sang with her supporters, before walking outside to greet them in person.

Her daughter, Ana Corina Sosa, accepted the award on her mother's behalf earlier in the day.

The Nobel Institute awarded Machado the Peace Prize this year for "her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy" in Venezuela.

Afterwards, Machado went the outside to greet her supporters, who waited behind metal barricades on the street.

"Maria!" "Maria, here!" they shouted in Spanish, as many held their phones aloft to record the historic moment.

At one point, Machado climbed over the barriers to join them.

Reuters Maria Corina Machado jumps over barricades outside the Grand Hotel in Oslo to greet cheering supporters as security looks on.Reuters
Maria Corina Machado jumps over barricades outside the Grand Hotel in Oslo to greet cheering supporters.

Her appearance was preceded by speculation that she would travel to Norway for the award ceremony.

The Nobel committee shared audio of Machado declaring, "I will be in Oslo, I am on my way."

After her Peace Prize win, Machado made a point to praise US President Donald Trump, who is open about his own ambitions for the Peace Prize and is locked in ongoing military tension with Venezuela.

On Wednesday, Trump announced the US military had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. His administration alleges the vessel was under sanction and was involved in an "illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations".

The Venezuelan government accused the US of theft and piracy.

Poland arrests Russian archaeologist wanted in Ukraine

Universal Images Group via Getty Images Hermitage Museum photograph showing the entire building. It is mint green and white with gold detailing. There is a pole with a Russian flag raised from the front centre of the roofUniversal Images Group via Getty Images
Alexander Butyagin works at the world famous Hermitage Museum in St Petersburg.

Polish authorities have arrested a prominent Russian academic from St Petersburg's world-famous Hermitage Museum who is sought by Ukraine for allegedly conducting illegal excavations and partially destroying the ancient city of Myrmekion in Crimea.

The suspect, identified under Polish law as Aleksandr B, is the head of the Ancient Archaeology of the Northern Black Sea region at the museum, according to Ukrainian prosecutors.

Ukrainian prosecutors accuse him of conducting illegal excavations at the site in Kerch between February 2014 and November 2025.

"As a result of these excavations, from 2014-2019, he illegally partially destroyed the 'Ancient City of Myrmekion' archaeological complex," Prosecutor Piotr Skiba, a spokesman for the Warsaw District Prosecutor's Office told the BBC, citing information from Ukrainian prosecutors.

Ukraine estimates the damage at UAH 201.6 million ($4.77 million).

Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014 and annexed it. Russia's foreign ministry identified the man as Alexander Butyagin, an employee of the State Hermitage Museum and condemned his detention.

"This is absolute legal tyranny. We will of course demand through diplomatic channels the right to protect the interests of our citizen," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Myrmekion was an Ancient Greek colony founded by the Ionians in the first half of the Sixth Century BCE located in contemporary Crimea.

Prosecutor Skiba said the man was detained in Poland on 4 December and was later questioned by prosecutors in Warsaw, "where he refused to provide explanations".

The Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office issued an extradition request for Aleksandr B in November, Skiba said.

According to the request: "He searched for movable objects on cultural heritage sites without the appropriate permit to conduct excavations at the 'Ancient City of Myrmekion' archaeological complex in Kerch….and conducted illegal excavations at this cultural heritage site from the beginning of the temporary occupation of the territory of Crimea".

Russia's foreign ministry said Butyagin had been invited to deliver lectures on Pompeii in Warsaw and several other European cities.

Warsaw District Court has agreed to remand Aleksandr B in custody at the Warsaw-Białołęka detention centre for 40 days until 13 January whilst the extradition process goes ahead.

The Russian embassy in Warsaw has been informed of his arrest and pre-trial detention and are providing him with consular assistance, Prosecutor Skiba said.

Severe disruption hits Portugal in first general strike for 12 years

Corbis via Getty Images Women march in Lisbon against the government's labour packageCorbis via Getty Images
The two big union federations are staging the strike, which will disrupt much of the country's services

Portugal is facing severe disruption to transport, flights, hospitals, schools and other public services on Thursday, as the two main union federations stage a general strike over unprecedented labour reforms.

The last time the CGTP and the generally less militant UGT joined forces was during the eurozone debt crisis in 2013, when a "troika" of international institutions demanded cuts in salaries and pensions as part of Portugal's bailout.

Twelve years later, Portugal's economy has become the fastest growing in the eurozone in recent months, but Prime Minister Luís Montenegro says it is still necessary to tackle "rigidities" in the labour market "so companies can be more profitable and workers have better salaries" as a result.

"I will not give up on having a country with the ambition to be at the forefront, to be at the vanguard of Europe," he said on the eve of the strike.

However, Montenegro appears to have been taken aback by the strength of feeling against his minority right-of-centre government's plans: one of his Social Democrat MPs is on the UGT executive and even he voted for a strike.

The prime minister tweaked some proposals after calling the federation in for talks late last month, but it was clearly not enough.

Among the most controversial of the more than 100 proposals are:

  • letting employers roll over temporary contracts for years on end
  • lifting a ban on sacking workers then immediately rehiring them indirectly via outsourcing
  • removing a requirement to reinstate employees who were unfairly dismissed.

It is Portuguese in their 20s who are likely to be most affected by the changes - and opinion is rather mixed.

Diogo Brito, who works as an air steward but has friends who do casual work in tourism, supports the right to strike but backs the package: "It has to be done. We have to catch up with richer countries and with these measures I think we can evolve more."

But self-employed photographer Eduardo Ferreira says he knows many people who already cannot find secure jobs and is pleased to see the unions unite at a "critical moment" for Portugal: "Things have been tough ever since the troika, and workers haven't reacted until now."

EPA A man in a blue jacket and tie peers over his glasses while sitting against a wooden backgroundEPA
Prime Minister Luís Montenegro appears to have been taken aback by the scale of opposition to his reforms

The CGTP has condemned the package as "an assault on the rights of all workers, particularly women and young people", while the UGT calls it "so out of step, in a context of economic growth, financial stability and a strong labour market, that… it reflects a clear bias in favour of employers".

The UGT also complains that formal talks between unions, government and business were "unbalanced, restrictive and detrimental to workers".

Montenegro's governing coalition lacks a majority in parliament, and is seeking support for the bill not only from the small, free-market Liberal Initiative (IL) but from hard-right Chega, which since May's general election has been the second-largest party.

Its leader, André Ventura, has expressed reservations about the way some measures might affect family life, but looks open to negotiations.

Before the election, Montenegro had ruled out deals with Chega, and the unions and the third-biggest party, the Socialists, say the prime minister's mask has slipped.

They also warn that politicians on the right want to amend Portugal's 1976 constitution to loosen employment safeguards considered among Europe's strongest.

The issue has also become caught up in the campaign for January's presidential election, with several candidates arguing that the labour reform bill flouts Portugal's 1976 constitution.

Under Portugal's "semi-presidential" system, the head of state can decline to sign bills approved by parliament. Bills can instead be sent to the Constitutional Court for review or the president can exercise a veto that, while it can be overturned by a majority of elected MPs, delays the process, ensuring further discussion.

With the government seeking to overhaul so much of the labour code, such scrutiny might stoke voter unease about its radicalism, particularly since the plans were not in the coalition's election manifesto.

Unlike many strikes here, Thursday's day of action is not limited to the public sector.

At Portugal's largest factory, VW-owned Autoeuropa, south of Lisbon, almost 1,000 employees voted unanimously last week to back it.

"I believe there is no worker in this country unaffected by the negative measures in this reform," said UGT secretary-general Mário Mourão, after the Autoeuropa gathering. "It must be responded to appropriately."

Austria bans headscarves in schools for under-14s

Getty Images A woman wearing a blue headscarf seen from behind as she sits in a chair in a classroomGetty Images

Austria has passed a law banning headscarves in schools for girls under the age of 14.

The conservative-led coalition of three centrist parties, the ÖVP, the SPÖ and the Neos, says the law is a "clear commitment to gender equality", but critics say it will fuel anti-Muslim feeling in the country and could be unconstitutional.

The measure will apply to girls in both public and private schools.

In 2020, a similar headscarf ban for girls under 10 was struck down by the Constitutional Court, because it specifically targeted Muslims.

The terms of the new law mean girls under 14 will be forbidden from wearing "traditional Muslim" head coverings such as hijabs or burkas.

If a student violates the ban, they must have a series of discussions with school authorities and their legal guardians. If there are repeated violations, the child and youth welfare agency must be notified.

As a last resort, families or guardians could be fined up to €800 (£700).

Members of the government say this is about empowering young girls, arguing it is to protect them "from oppression".

Speaking ahead of the vote, the parliamentary leader of the liberal Neos party, Yannick Shetty said it was "not a measure against a religion. It is a measure to protect the freedom of girls in this country," and added that the ban would affect about 12,000 children.

The opposition far-right Freedom Party of Austria, the FPÖ, which voted in favour of the ban, said it did not go far enough.

It described the ban as "a first step", which should be widened to include all pupils and school staff.

"There needs to be a general ban on headscarves in schools; political Islam has no place here", the FPÖ's spokesperson on families Ricarda Berger said.

Sigrid Maurer from the opposition Greens called the new law "clearly unconstitutional".

The official Islamic Community in Austria, the IGGÖ, said the ban violated fundamental rights and would split society.

In a statement on its website, it said "instead of empowering children, they will be stigmatised and marginalised."

The IGGÖ said it would review "the constitutionality of the law and take all necessary steps."

"The Constitutional Court already ruled unequivocally in 2020 that such a ban is unconstitutional, as it specifically targets a religious minority and violates the principle of equality," the IGGÖ said.

The government says it has tried to avoid that.

"Will it pass muster with the Constitutional Court? I don't know. We have done our best," Shetty said.

An awareness-raising trial period will start in February 2026, with the ban fully going into force next September - the beginning of the new school year.

Pakistan's military sentences its former spy chief to 14 years in jail

Pakistan Military An image of Faiz Hameed wearing military fatigues. Pakistan Military

Pakistan's former spy chief has been sentenced to 14 years in prison by a military court, on charges including violation of state secrets and interfering in politics.

Faiz Hameed led Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency from 2019 to 2021, during the tenure of now-jailed former prime minister Imran Khan.

He was known to be a staunch supporter of Khan, and took early retirement shortly after Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote in 2022.

It is the first time that an ISI chief in Pakistan has been court martialled. His lawyer said he plans to appeal against the verdict.

The ISI chief is seen as the second most powerful position in Pakistan's military.

According to a press release issued by the public relations arm of Pakistani military (ISPR), the 15-month-long court martial proceeding began on August 12, 2024, under the Pakistan Army Act.

Hameed was tried on four charges, including "involvement in political activities, violation of the Official Secrets Act which harmed the interest of the state, misuse of his powers and government resources, and causing harm to citizens".

The ISPR statement added that Hameed had been given "the right to have a defence team of his choice" and that he has the right to appeal the decision in the "appropriate forum", which would be the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

The exact details of the case are not public as the hearing was held behind closed doors in a military court.

The statement says that Hameed's alleged involvement in fomenting political agitation and instability is being dealt with separately.

This is assumed to be regarding allegations that Hameed was tied to protests against Imran Khan's arrest on 9 May 2023.

Hameed's lawyer, Mian Ali Ashfaq, said his client was "1,000% innocent, but this is the court's decision".

"We were unaware of the judgement and only found out through the ISPR's press release. We are now applying to the relevant forum for a copy of the decision," he told the BBC.

"As soon as we receive it, we will review it and immediately file a petition to appeal. Right now, the first forum for appeal is the army chief, so that is what we will do. We are hopeful that at the next forum we will present our case and obtain justice."

Additional reporting by Farhat Javed

'Architects of AI' named Time Magazine's Person of the Year

Getty Images Nvidia boss Jensen Huang in side-profileGetty Images
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang is among the tech bosses the magazine has put on its biggest cover of the year

Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2025 is not a single person.

Instead, the magazine has given its annual award recognising the year's most influential figure to "the architects" of artificial intelligence (AI).

Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, Meta head Mark Zuckerberg, X owner Elon Musk and AI "godmother" Fei-Fei Li are among those depicted on one of the magazine's two covers.

Experts say it highlights how quickly AI, and the firms behind it, are reshaping society.

It comes as a boom in the technology, ushered in by OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, continues at pace.

The firm said in September its chatbot is used by around 700 million people every week.

Big tech firms are pouring billions of dollars into AI and the infrastructure behind it in a bid to stay ahead of rivals.

There are two covers this year - one a piece of art depicting the letters AI surrounded by workers, and another a painting focused on the tech leaders themselves.

Time Eight people in suits sitting on a girder with a cityscape behind them. Time
The cover references the classic New York photograph "Lunch atop a Skyscraper" - but with tech figures in place of ironworkers

At Meta, Zuckerberg has reportedly focused the firm around the tech, including its AI chatbot, which it has embedded in its popular apps.

He, along with Huang, Musk and Li, appeared on the cover alongside Lisa Su, boss of chipmaker AMD, OpenAI head Sam Altman, Anthropic chief Dario Amodei, and Google's AI lab lead Sir Demis Hassabis.

"This year, the debate about how to wield AI responsibly gave way to a sprint to deploy it as fast as possible," Time said as it announced its new covers.

"But the risk-averse are no longer in the driver's seat.

"Thanks to Huang, Son, Altman, and other AI titans, humanity is now flying down the highway, all gas no brakes, toward a highly automated and highly uncertain future."

And the magazine's editor-in-chief Sam Jacobs said "no one" had as great an impact in 2025 than "the individuals who imagined, designed, and built AI".

"Humanity will determine AI's path forward, and each of us can play a role in determining AI's structure and future," he said.

Time The other Time cover shows the letters AI, with construction workers surrounding it. It is as if they are building a giant statue of the letters out of computer parts.Time

Forrester analyst Thomas Husson said 2025 could be seen as a "tipping point" for how frequently AI is now used in our day-to-day lives.

"Most consumers use it without even being aware of it," he told the BBC.

He said AI is now being crammed into hardware, software and services - meaning it its uptake is "much faster than during the Internet or mobile revolutions".

Some people now choose chatbots over search engines and social media to plan holidays, find Christmas gifts and discover recipes.

Others, such as those worried about its energy use, training data and impact on their livelihoods, are opting-out entirely.

Nik Kairinos, founder and chief executive of lab Fountech AI, said the honour was "an honest assessment" of the tech's influence, but he felt "recognition should not be confused with readiness".

"At this moment, AI can still be a saviour or scourge to humanity," he said.

"We are still in the early stages of building AI systems that are dependable, accountable, and aligned with human values.

"For those of us developing the technology and bringing AI tools to market, there is huge responsibility."

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赖称民主是台湾唯一方向 大陆国台办:统一是台湾前途唯一方向

台湾总统赖清德日前称坚定反对用暴力或胁迫方式改变区域和平稳定,并指民主是台湾唯一的方向。中国大陆国台办批他煽炒“民主对抗威权”虚假叙事,统一才是台湾前途的唯一方向。

赖清德星期三(12月10日)受访时批大陆靠近日本海域航行和举行的军事演习“非常不恰当”,并作出以上表述。同日,他也在脸书发文,喊话世界上理念相近的民主伙伴“携手抵抗威权侵扰”,并称“民主是台湾唯一的方向”。

大陆国务院台办发言人陈斌华星期四(11日)回答记者相关提问时说,赖清德又在颠倒黑白、大放厥词,又在鼓噪“以武谋独”、“倚外谋独”,又在煽炒“民主对抗威权”虚假叙事,妄图蛊惑台湾民众、误导国际舆论,打着“民主”、“和平”的幌子穷兵黩武、勾连外部势力持续谋“独”挑衅。

陈斌华批赖清德充斥对抗思维,严重违背岛内民意,严重戕害民主法治,既是台海形势紧张动荡的始作俑者,也是台湾社会撕裂对立的最大乱源,根本没有资格奢谈“民主”、“和平”。

陈斌华表示,和平是两岸同胞的共同追求,统一是台湾前途的唯一方向。“我们愿意为和平统一创造广阔空间,但决不为任何形式的台独分裂行径留下任何余地”。

中国教育部:留学回国者增19.1% 人才回流加速

中国2024年留学回国49.5万人,较2023年增加7.94万人,同比增长19.1%,人才回流呈加速态势。

综合新华社、上观新闻报道,中国教育部星期四(12月11日)在上海举办的留学人员创新创业交流活动上公布上述数据。

教育部有关负责人介绍,1978年至2024年,中国各类出国留学人员累计达888万人,743万人完成学业,644万人在完成学业后选择回中国发展,为服务国家战略提供了强有力的人才支撑。

其中2012年举行中共十八大以来,563万人回国服务,占改革开放以来回国总人数的87%。

下午察:从“红楼梦悼明”到《芳华》解说忆文革

中国历史博主“吃瓜蒙主”的《红楼梦》解读视频,让围绕这部清代小说的索隐派观点翻红。图为1987年的《红楼梦》电视剧剧照。 (互联网)

中国网络最近好不热闹。引发新一波“反清复明”和西方伪史论浪潮的“红楼梦悼明”说,以及为文化大革命“招魂”的电影《芳华》解说,连番登场搅动舆论。就连官媒《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进也疑惑发问:“这究竟是怎么回事?”

短视频平台抖音历史博主“吃瓜蒙主”的《红楼梦》解读视频,让围绕这部清代小说的索隐派观点翻红。尽管相关视频已被中国网络平台下架,其中核心的“红楼梦悼明”说,连日来依然引起坊间热议。

索隐派是《红楼梦》研究中的一种学派,主张通过分析小说细节寻找隐藏的历史事件或寓意。据江苏《现代快报》报道,这股索隐派风潮中,林黛玉被指隐喻明朝末代皇帝崇祯、贾宝玉是传国玉玺、《红楼梦》讲的是反清复明……

高市早苗荣登全球最具影响力百名女性第三 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

11/12/2025 - 11:40

美国经济杂志《福布斯》(Forbes)10日发布了2025年版“全球最具影响力的100名女性”排行榜,日本首相高市早苗当选第3名。作为日本首位女性首相,杂志评价称,“她的决断将塑造东亚的力量平衡以及全球制造业的稳定性”。

《福布斯》12月10日公布2025年全球百名最具影响力女性排名,欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)、欧洲央行行长拉加德(Christine Lagarde)分别位列第1、2名,而日本首相高市早苗首次入榜便得第3名,成为榜单上排名最高的国家领导人。

该杂志将高市介绍为“强硬的保守派”。相关文章指出,她已经接连发表大胆言论,其中一些引发了争议,并提及她在东京都内的一场会议上引用漫画《进击的巨人》台词所说的“闭嘴,把一切都投资给我”。

针对高市早苗首相获选《福布斯》“全球最具影响力女性”第3名一事,日本官房长官木原稔在11日的记者会上评价高市早苗首相说她“非常有力量”。

他表示,高市“精通政策,并持续进行信息收集、分析和学习,以应对瞬息万变的国际局势”。

木原稔是首相的最亲近助手。他还介绍了一个例子:在与日本维新会组建联合政权时,首相认真研读维新党的政策资料,使得藤田文武共同代表“深受感动”。他认为,正是首相的热情推动了联合政权的达成。木原表示:“在首相的领导下,我愿为国家和国民勇于承担工作。”

日本维新会共同代表藤田文武10月17日傍晚在党总部接受采访,说明了与自民党围绕自维联合政权所进行的政策协商的进展情况。他表示,协商内容“涉及对方,因此不便详述”,但指出“高市总裁已经阅读了我党所有的竞选纲领和主要提案书,全部记在脑中。这是非常令人敬佩的”,并评价高市在协商中展现了诚意和认真态度。

藤田文武在10月17日晚上参加 BS日本电视台《深层NEWS》节目时,将作为联合执政协商谈判对象的自民党总裁高市早苗评价为“值得学习的政治家之一”。

藤田在多次谈及联合政权谈判时都表达了对高市态度的信任,当天的节目中也表示“由衷感谢高市”,并称她“是个说话办事非常快的人”。

今年全球百大最具影响力女性排名聚焦“定义全球影响力新时代”,涵盖政治、科技、金融与文化等领域。该名单包含来自25个国家的女性,包括高市早苗在内,今年共有8位现任国家领导人入选。”

特朗普新国安战略:让中国满意的美国外交?

Wesley Rahn
2025-12-11T12:19:11.445Z
美国新版国安战略不再重复特朗普政府2017年第一份“国安战略”的“强国竞争”论调,也删去长期以来把中国描绘成推动另一个世界秩序的系统性对手的内容。

(德国之声中文网)特朗普政府上周四(12月4日)发表的新《国家安全战略》(NSS,简称“国安战略”)让欧洲感到震惊。文件明确写入了跨大西洋关系的根本转变。

在涉亚政策上,这份战略看起来跟之前一致,它继续强调令人耳熟的“自由开放的印太”以及与“盟友网络”合作,以遏制和管控中国。

不过,2025版“国安战略”显示出特朗普第二任期在美中竞争上的新视角。文件把亚洲未来的“最终利益”界定为商业协议、贸易路线安全,以及“维持经济主导地位”。

尽管特朗普混乱的关税政策让美国在亚洲的伙伴不安,新文件认为,美国主导的经济稳定,是在印太地区遏制中国的最佳基础。

“我们将重新平衡与中国的经济关系,把互惠和公平放在优先位置,以恢复美国的经济独立……我们的最终目标,是构建长期经济活力的基础。”文件写道。

这份战略阐述了美国如何利用商业、科技与军事力量,让盟友和对手都服从美国利益,并充满了“美国优先”的措辞。

美国对外关系委员会学者大卫·赛克斯(David Sacks)批评美国新国安战略:“该地区其他国家的价值,只在于它们能否帮助美国赢得与中国的经济竞争,并遏制与北京的冲突。”

减弱了对中国价值观的批评

这份33页的新文件不再重复特朗普政府2017年第一份“国安战略”的“强国竞争”论调。当时美国警告中国与俄罗斯试图“塑造一个与美国价值与利益对立的世界”。文件也删去长期以来把中国描绘成推动另一个世界秩序的系统性对手的内容。

取而代之,文件对特朗普大加颂扬。它称这位美国总统“凭一己之力”扭转了美国长期以来对中国的“错误假设”,即认为自由贸易会促使北京接近自由主义价值。

文件也充斥极右翼论调,抨击所谓“腐蚀主权”的“侵入性跨国组织”。

“所有国家把自身利益放在第一位、维护自身主权,是自然且正当的。”它写道。

文件称,美国将避免对他国“强加民主或其他社会变革”,同时追求“良好且和平的商业关系”。

文件补充说:“大国、富国、强国的巨大影响力,是国际关系的永恒真理。

其语气与2017年“国安战略”截然不同。那时的文件点名批评中国“以牺牲他国主权为代价扩张自身势力”。

美国战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)情报、国家安全与科技项目主任哈丁(Emily Harding)在分析评论中写道:“民主议程显然结束了。”

她说:“北京会喜欢这种明确表态,即美国偏好不干涉他国内政,以及关于尊重国家主权的清晰表述。”

台湾:岛链上的芯片工厂

中国谈到“主权”,往往指涉台湾。台湾是一个民主岛屿,而北京声称对其拥有主权,并誓言要“统一”,必要时以武力实现。

“国安战略”花了相当篇幅谈论台湾。尽管新文件把台湾的重要性描绘成一个漂浮在南中国海关键位置的芯片工厂,台北仍乐见美国强调要遏制台海冲突。

“遏制台海冲突,最好通过维持军事优势,是优先事项。”文件说。“我们也将维持对台的一贯政策,即美国不支持任何单方面改变台海现状的行动。”

虽然美国没有正式承认台湾主权,但华盛顿是台湾主要的安全支持者。

一些专家担忧新“国安战略”语气变软,因为它写道,美国“不支持”单方面改变,而之前用的是“反对”。不过,这与外界曾担心特朗普政府会迎合北京、甚至声明“反对”台湾独立的推测仍有距离。

台湾防长顾立雄上周六(12月6日)对这份“国安战略”表示欢迎,称它“印太区域和平稳定还是美国最大核心利益,美国急于推动印太周边国家借由协同产生有效的集体吓阻,以避免台海、乃至整个印太区域的和平稳定受到任何改变,此为民主价值同盟国家最首要的一项工作”。

针对这份文件,中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆本周一表示,如何解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事,不容任何外部干涉。美方应停止纵容支持“台独”分裂势力“以武谋独”、“以武拒统”。

亚洲传统盟友遭到忽视

文件警告说,台湾位于南中国海航道的战略要冲,对美国经济有“重大影响”。如果一个“潜在敌对势力”控制此地,可能“对水道征收通行费”,甚至“随意关闭或开放”。

因此,美国要求亚洲伙伴“加大投入,并且真正付诸行动,为集体防御做更多”。

日本与韩国仅在这里被简要提及,内容集中在提高经费与防务能力,以“威慑对手并保护第一岛链”。第一岛链指日本、台湾与菲律宾构成的地理屏障,可以阻止中国海军深入太平洋。

不过,文件并未提到朝鲜的核武与导弹计划对日韩构成的威胁。

文件也未提及菲律宾扮演的角色。菲律宾是美国的重要战略伙伴,长期允许美国驻军,并与美国签有数十年的共同防御条约。

亚洲民主大国印度在文件中被唯一提及之处,同样因为印太威慑的经济合作。美国希望通过改善“商业(及其他)关系”,鼓励新德里参与印太安全。这也包括让印度继续参加“四方安全对话”(Quad),这是由美国主导、包括日本和澳大利亚的地区战略论坛。

多处自相矛盾的陈述

文件中出现多处自相矛盾的陈述。例如它主张美国要通过“私人部门主导的经济参与”,把“盟友体系整合为一个经济集团”。这与特朗普政府对亚太经合组织等多边机制的抵触明显矛盾。

国际危机组织亚洲计划副主任黎依芯(Huong Le Thu)上周对德国之声新闻表示,文件明确显示特朗普政府认为,“维持经济优势,是遏制印太冲突的方式”。

她说,多数美国亚洲盟友对此“态度暧昧”,因为文件没有包含任何重大意外描述。

美国对外关系委员会学者赛克斯(David Sacks)批评这份文件的印太战略“过度以中国为中心”。

“该地区其他国家的价值,只在于它们能否帮助美国赢得与中国的经济竞争,并遏制与北京的冲突。”他写道。

“菲律宾作为美国的条约盟友,甚至完全没有被提及。太平洋岛国和大多数东南亚国家也付诸阙如。一份更能发挥美国优势的战略,应当以美国的盟友与伙伴为起点,而把中国放在更大的印太布局中。”

相关图集:特朗普关税战2.0时间线梳理

2025年2月1日 |对墨、加、中加征关税:特朗普上任后首次大规模加征关税:自2月1日开始对美国三大贸易伙伴加拿大、墨西哥和中国加征关税。特朗普宣布对邻国加拿大和墨西哥进口商品加征25%的关税,指责两国未能阻止非法移民进入美国;对来自中国商品加征10%的关税,指责中国在芬太尼生产中扮演重要角色。
2025年2月10日 |加征钢铝关税 无例外豁免:特朗普2月10日签署行政令,对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝制品加征25%关税,并取消加拿大、墨西哥和巴西等钢铝主要供应国的免税额度。
2025年3月26日|宣布对进口汽车全面征税:特朗普于3月26日宣布,自4月3日起,对所有进口汽车与轻型卡车征收25%的关税。全球汽车供应链受冲击,日韩汽车产业首当其冲。受此消息影响,丰田、本田、现代和起亚等汽车制造商股价大幅下跌,总市值蒸发约165亿美元。
2025年4月2日|宣布“对等关税”:特朗普4月2日在白宫玫瑰花园举行“让美国再次富有”(Make America Wealthy Again)记者会,宣布“对等关税”措施。美国对大多数国家征收10%的基准关税,但针对特定国家征收更高税额。中国、欧盟和越南分别面临34%、20%和46%的关税; 日本、韩国、印度、柬埔寨和台湾,分别受到24%、25%、26%、49%和32%进口关税的打击。
2025年4月9日|暂缓关税90日 中国除外:特朗普4月9日在大规模“对等关税”上路不到24小时后出现政策大转弯,宣布暂缓征收“对等关税”90天,在此期间,税率将统一降至10%的基准关税。但中国被排除在暂缓名单之外,不仅如此,还将对中国的关税加码至145%,其中包含了美国此前指控中国打击芬太尼不力而征收的20%关税。
2025年5月4日 | 对美国境外制作的电影征收100%关税:特朗普5月4日以“国安威胁”为由,宣布将对非美国制作的电影征收100%关税,理由是要“拯救美国电影业”。
2025年5月12日|中美关税战90天“停火协议”:美中高层在瑞士进行谈判后于5月12日发布联合声明,就90天的“暂停期”达成协议:美国对大多数中国输美商品加征145%的关税将在5月14日前下调至30%,30%关税里包括针对芬太尼问题额外施加的20%惩罚性关税;中国对美产品加征的125%关税则将降至10%。美中双边早前不断叠加的报复性关税,在这波协商中几乎都被取消。(图为美财政部长贝森特与贸易谈判代表格里尔出席美中贸易会谈)
2025年5月13日|美大幅下调中国“小包裹”关税:白宫5月13发布行政命令,将从5月14日起将对中国低价值货物(不超过800美元)征收的“最低限度”关税从120%下调至54%,原计划的200美元固定费用征税方案被搁置,现行的100美元固定费用将继续执行。
5月23日 对阵欧盟:特朗普威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品加征50%的统一关税。他同时警告苹果公司,若其在美国销售的手机是在海外生产的,将面临25%的关税。两天后,特朗普收回了对欧盟加征50%关税的威胁,他表示,与欧委会主席冯德莱恩通电话后,同意将美国和欧盟的谈判期限延长至7月9日。
5月28日 美国法院裁定特朗普对等关税“越权”:美国联邦国际贸易法庭裁定,特朗普今年4月2日对多国征收的对等关税,以及早前向中国、加拿大和墨西哥加征的报复性关税都属于“非法”。判决认定,特朗普征收全球关税的行为超出了《国际经济紧急权力法》(IEEPA)赋予总统的权限。美政府表示将对该裁决提出上诉。
5月29日 美国上诉法院暂准特朗普关税恢复执行:美国联邦上诉法院一天后推翻该判决,让特朗普的关税政策得以持续实施。上诉法院指出,为了审理特朗普政府的上诉,将先暂缓此前法院的裁决,并命令原告及特朗普政府分别在6月5日和6月9日前提交回应文件。
5月30日 特朗普全面上调钢铝关税:美国总统特朗普宣布将对全球钢铁和铝产品的进口关税提高至50%。中国是美国的第三大铝供应国。他指责中国未按约降低关税,取消针对稀土等产品的贸易限制。他说:“中国完全违反了与我们达成的协议。不能再做好好先生了!”
6月10日 美中谈判双方宣布原则上达成贸易框架协议:中国和美国官员在英国伦敦举行贸易谈判,经过两天的会议,6月10日,双方宣布原则上已达成贸易框架协议,以落实5月在瑞士日内瓦的共识、还有两国领袖上周的通话内容。特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social上表示,按照美中达成的新的贸易协议,美国将从中国获得稀土磁体。他还表示,将允许中国学生在协议达成后继续留在美国大学学习。

特朗普版“门罗主义”

不过,比起美国在印太的持续威慑,北京更应关注的是文件的核心主题——美国战略重心转向西半球,并誓言遏制“非半球竞争者”,即中国。

文件强调,美国将利用自身力量,在拉丁美洲建立新联盟。条件是减少“敌对外来势力”的活动——包括军事设施、港口、关键基础设施的控制,以及战略资产的收购。

大西洋理事会地缘战略倡议高级研究员亚历山大·格雷(Alexander B. Gray)写道:“这明确了美中竞争长期存在的现实:中国试图通过在西半球开展敌对行动,让美国分心,从而无法维持印太现状。”

“国安战略”不是具有法律约束力的文件。它更多是一种信号,传递给国内观众、盟友与对手。但它确实展示了美国外交的交易式方向转变。

美国战略与国际研究中心的专家哈丁写道,尽管特朗普就是靠这些承诺当选,“今天这些只顾眼前利益的选择,可能导致一个更加孤立、虚弱和分裂的未来。”

 

DW中文有Instagram!欢迎搜寻dw.chinese,看更多深入浅出的图文与影音报道。

© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。

冰川思享号|国道重启收费,地方政府也是没办法了

file

相比“燃电之争”,如果国道恢复收费是因为公路养护费存在缺口,那首先该关心的是燃油税花哪儿去了。

撰文丨关不羽

消失了15年的国道公路收费重现江湖,引发各界广泛关注。

自2009年实施燃油税改革,国道免费通行已经实施15年。然而,这份“出行福利”可能很快就要消失了。2025年,各地“试点”国省道干线公路收费。据不完全统计,第二季度全国普通国省干线公路新增137处收费站,涉及河南、湖北、甘肃、陕西等多个省份。

从免费重回收费,舆论压力可想而知。那么,为什么各地政府要冒天下之大不韪重新收费呢?因为缺钱。

据说是因为养护费缺口。网传的说法是,“当前全国普通公路年度养护资金需求达6000亿元,而现有资金仅能覆盖一半。3000亿的资金缺口,足以成为收费动力了”。由此也引发了新一轮“燃电之争”,电动车不缴纳燃油税,成了众矢之的。

“燃电之争”的群众斗群众煞是热闹,可在我看来,这却只是问题的表象。

CDT 档案卡
标题:国道重启收费,地方政府也是没办法了
作者:关不羽
发表日期:2025.12.11
来源:微信公众号-冰川思享号
主题归类:地方财政
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

01

网传的“3000亿养路费缺口”,让人颇感不解。因为,理论上不应该存在这样大的缺口。

网传的说法是“公路年度养护资金需求达6000亿元,而现有资金仅能覆盖一半”。公路养护资金是有明确的出处的,那就是燃油税。2024年燃油税收入约1.2万亿元,6000亿只占燃油税收入的一半。燃油税优先用于地方政府公路养护的转移支付,是2009年燃油税改革的初衷。

2009年燃油税改革前,我国公路交通一直沿用20世纪80年代发源于广东的地方政府“借贷修路,收费还贷”模式。除了收取通行费,还有公路养护费等六项行政规费。

2009年后燃油费税改后的国道免费,本质是以税代费:提高成品油燃油税,以替代公路养护费等六项行政规费和政府还贷二级公路收费。

老百姓看到的是“免费”,看不到的是央地财政的此消彼长。地方政府税费并入成品油燃油税后,成了中央税收。与之匹配的是,明文规定了成品油燃油税不纳入经营性税收,而是以转移支付的方式取之于地方还于地方,用于地方公路养护。即四不变原则,“交通资金遵循属性不变、资金用途不变、地方预算程序不变、地方事权不变”。

看上去丁是丁卯是卯的原汤化原食,清清楚楚,实则不然。由此产生的“尾部效应”相当复杂。

此后燃油税每年都有较大幅度的增长,税率多次大幅上调。加之燃油税是由石油企业代征,所以连带着增值税也上涨了。新增税收的安排,就不是“哪儿来哪儿去”了,而是统筹安排。比如农业补贴,又如转移支付异地使用的“全国平衡”,还有部分用于道路投资建设。实际操作空间不小。

不过,燃油税主要用于公路养护、尤其是国道养护的原则始终没有变。但是具体的统筹情况,未见官方公开数据,难以判断。既然是“主要用于公路养护”,占比七八成总是应该的。何至于6000亿养路费支出都覆盖不了呢?

实际上,这次改革和上世纪90年代后历次税改一样,都起到了扩大中央财权的效果。不仅增加了实际掌握的税收收入,也扩大了财政支配的空间。但是,地方养护道路的事责并没有变。

如果1.2万亿燃油税未能覆盖6000亿公路养护费,先要问的不是谁买单,而是本该专款专用的燃油税花到哪儿去了?

当然,还存在另一种情况,国道恢复收费是缺钱,但主要缺口不是公路养护费,而是建设投资偿贷压力。

02

2012年到2022年,我国经历了新一轮道路基建高峰。公路总里程10年增长112万公里,相当于每年新增11万公里。国道建设更是3年大跃进,从2014年的不到18万公里,跃升到2016年的35.4万公里。尽管新增国道并非全部新建项目,也包括改建提级,但是投资密度之高、投资强度之大,也相当惊人。

需要说明的是,本来车辆购置税是安排给地方政府新建道路项目的对口税源,2021年财政部和建设部出台了《车辆购置税补助地方资金管理暂行办法》,但是实际执行磕磕绊绊。2024年正式废止,一概统筹之。

随着当年密集规划建设的道路投入使用,年度养护资金自然是“翻倍式增长”。不过,因此积累的资金主要缺口不是道路养护费,而是偿债。

国道虽然是“国字头”,建设资金来源却要分三块:中央补贴、地方财政资金和融资。和美国“国道”州际公路固定为联邦和州府9:1出资不同,我国国道建设投资的央地投入比例可是相当“灵活”的。

实际上,除了少数西部地区国家重点工程以中央资金为主,大部分国道建设资金主要还是地方筹资。而地方筹资,银行贷款又占了很高的比例。动辄上百亿投资、“含债量”过半的国道工程比比皆是。

这些工程贷款只有少部分纳入财政部兜底的地方专项债,其余都是地方政府七折八绕从银行套出来的。土地财政基础好的地方,还有土地抵押物。土地不值钱的,就纯靠地方政府信用硬扛。反正有“国”字头的政策背书,银行乐得大方。讲白了就是上面出政策,地方借钱修路。

因此,道路基础建设成了地方债的绝对主力,2020年的地方专项债中占比高达80%。

但是,这轮道路基建高峰和20世纪90年代、2008年不同。当年是“想要富先修路”,这轮是“因为富才修路”。财政规模高速扩张,政府财大气粗、信心爆棚,上马大型基建工程不要钱似的。至于投资怎么收回的账怎么算,别问,问就是“政治站位的高度”、“社会效益的大账”。

可是,“大账”也是账,“社会效益”也得体现在财政收入水平上才能还债平账。十年工程高潮一过,如梦初醒。债务周期和道路养护费用激增的双重压力之下,是真要算账了。3000亿年度养护资金的缺口之下,还有万亿计的地方债务。谁来买单、拿什么买单,都要有个说法。

相比贷款修路的负债,区区3000亿的养护费缺口不过九牛一毛。3000亿的坑,从2500万新能源车主身上刮点油水还能填上。万亿计的修路债,把全中国的新能源车都卖了,也填不了一点。

03

综上所述,国道恢复收费不是小事,国道全面恢复收费将会大幅提高社会基础成本,而且这种成本上涨是绝对刚性的。房价涨了,还可以躲着不买。交通物流费用涨了,谁也躲不掉。

此前国道的“免费”并不是真免费,而是燃油税买过一次单了。现在燃油税没取消,国道又恢复收税,岂不是要老百姓买两次单?这可不是新能源车的锅。所以,国道恢复收费,不能与新能源车如何分担公路养护费用混为一谈。

新能源车当然应该承担公路养护费,不能一直让油车车主“请客”。以目前的经济情况,相应的改革也是迟早的事。财政缺钱了,没有一根羊毛是安全的。

但是,一码归一码。相比“燃电之争”,如果国道恢复收费是因为公路养护费存在缺口,那首先该关心的是燃油税花哪儿去了。一年几千亿的税收不能不明不白地花了。

羊毛总是出在羊身上,但是不一定做成羊毛衫。如果燃油税不能专款专用,就算开征能源车道路养护费,谁能保证用到道路养护上?以后再出窟窿,让步行的缴养护费吗?

更为重要的是,央地的财权和事责的分配。燃油税改革,改的就是地方政府“借贷修路,收费还贷”模式。可是,地方的财权上缴了,事责没变。道路基础建设投资还是以地方政府借贷为主,偿债责任却成了糊涂账。真要说“谁家的孩子谁抱走”,那国道算是“谁家的孩子”呢?

债务主体是地方政府,可审批自上而下,决策权和财权在上,项目执行的事责在下,经济责任高度模糊,这是中国地方债的难点所在。

台政院通过修正草案 允许未婚、同婚女性人工生殖

台湾行政院星期四(12月11日)通过备受争议的《人工生殖法》修正草案,开放年满18岁的未婚女性及女同性配偶使用人工生殖技术孕育后代,不过代孕和男同配偶被排除在适用范围之外。

综合公视新闻网、自由新闻网等台媒报道,修正草案明确,除了不孕夫妻,年满18岁的未婚女性和以及女女同婚者,皆可使用人工生殖术孕育子女。草案也规定,人工生殖术所生子女视为婚生子女,不得于受术后撤销。

草案规定,同婚资格部分必须是合法登记者,使用任一方子宫、卵子完成怀孕;年满18岁单身女性也必须使用自身卵子和子宫进行人工生殖。

与此同时,草案将代理孕母和男同配偶排除在人工生殖术适用范围之外。台卫福部长石崇良表示,代理孕母因涉及第三人的健康权,包含怀孕生产风险、母婴健康考量、社会伦理各方面仍有歧见,在没有很高社会共识之前先脱钩处理。

台行政院副院长郑丽君指出,《人工生殖法》自2007年施行以来,仅限异性婚姻夫妻适用人工生殖技术,对于未婚、离婚、丧偶及同婚等女性群体,已无法平等保障其经营家庭生活的基本权利。

郑丽君表示,此次修正是以尊重女性生育自主权为基本理念,将未婚及同婚女性纳入适用对象,平等对待其经营家庭生活的权利。

台湾同志咨询热线协会秘书长杜思诚表示,协会对修正草案非常支持,这样可以让单身女性的结婚跟生育脱钩,也回应了想生育子女的女女伴侣需求。

东京:美日战机联合飞行 应对中俄军演

德正
2025-12-11T11:51:46.496Z
日本F-15战机与美国B-52战机联合飞行(2025年12月10日)

(德国之声中文网)东京称,美国具有核打击能力的战斗机与日本战斗机共同飞越日本海。此前,中俄在日韩附近海空举行联合演习。

日本防务省周四(12月11日)发布声明称,日美重申坚决防范任何使用暴力改变现状的单边企图,确认自卫队与美军的备战态势。

美军两架B-52战斗机与日本三架F-35隐形战机、三架F-15战机共同飞行。

本周二,中俄战机在东海以及太平洋西部联合飞行。而日方指责,上周末中国战机对日本战机进行火控雷达锁定。中方则予以否认。华盛顿称这一事件“对地区和平稳定没有建设性”,重申与日本的联盟“坚定不移”。

武力彰显

日韩都驻有美军,日本有美国在海外最集中的军事基地,包括一个航母打击群,以及一个美国海军陆战队远征部队。

日本联合参谋本部总参谋长内仓弘明(Hiroaki Uchikura)表示,中俄战斗机联合飞行明显是针对日本彰显武力。“从日本安全的立场来看,我们非常关切。”

日本防务大臣小泉进次郎周三与北约秘书长吕特通话时,也表达了对中俄联合飞行的忧虑。

中国外交部发言人郭嘉坤则称,中俄联合空中战略巡航是年度合作计划的一部分,展示双方“维护地区和平稳定的决心”。“日方没必要大惊小怪,对号入座。”

相关图集:摩擦不断,中日关系有哪些“痛点”?

历史性文件:1972年9月29日,时任中国总理周恩来和日本首相田中角荣在北京签署了《中日联合声明》(又称《中日建交公报》),标志着两国正式建立外交关系。这份声明的主要内容包括结束两国之间的不正常关系(战争状态),日本承认中华人民共和国为中国唯一合法政府。到1978年,两国代表又缔结了《中日和平友好条约》。
一杯美酒泯恩仇?:《中日联合声明》的主要内容还包括,强调两国之间的友谊,日本“对过去战争给中国人民造成的重大损害的责任表示深刻反省”,以及中国政府宣布放弃对日本的战争赔偿要求。这份声明虽然开启了两国之间关系正常化,促进了双边政治、经济、文化交流,但是一些悬而未决的遗留问题直到今天仍然给两国关系造成影响。
领海主权争议:东京和北京之间最大的矛盾之一,来自位于东海海域的几座无人居住的小岛——日本称之为尖阁诸岛,而中国则称钓鱼岛。2012年,日本政府宣布对尖阁诸岛实施“国有化”,引发了中国的强烈抗议,民间发起了抵制日货的行动。时至今日,中方的海警巡逻船或者渔船一再出现在争议岛屿附近海域并与日本海上保卫厅船只相对峙。
“台湾有事,日本有事”:日本对于一旦台海爆发冲突给地区安全造成的影响一向十分关切。2021年12月,已卸任的前首相安倍晋三首次提出“台湾有事即日本有事”的说法,认为台湾海峡的安全局势与日本息息相关,如果中国武力进攻台湾,日本、甚至美日同盟应武装介入。此话招致北京的强烈抗议和警告。2025年11月,首相高市早苗在国会内部政策质询中再提该论述,再次引发中日外交风波,并在两国掀起巨大舆论争议。
战争记忆和历史教科书:在中国看来,日本方面没有充分反省其战争罪行是双边关系发展最大的障碍之一。在侵略战争中,日本军队曾经在中国使用过化学武器和生物武器,造成大量杀戮,其中最知名的事件就是1937年的“南京大屠杀”。中国不断批评日本试图淡化其军队在二战中的侵略和暴力行径,包括部分民间出版的历史教科书中使用争议表述。
靖国神社:位于东京的靖国神社供奉着明治维新时代以来为日本战死的军人,其中包括二战中的14名日本甲级战犯。几乎每年都有知名日本政治人物,包括国会议员和内阁大臣在重要祭拜日参拜靖国神社,一再引起中国政府的抗议。不过自1995年以来,小泉纯一郎是唯一一位在任期内(2006年)参拜过靖国神社的日本首相。图为2022年8月15日——日本二战战败投降日,大批民众排队进入靖国神社。
福岛核废水与海产贸易:2011年福岛核电站泄漏事故发生后,相关处理过程中产生了大量曾经受到放射性污染的废水。2023年夏季,在日本政府批准和国际原子能机构(IAEA)监督下,当局开始将放射性废水过滤和稀释后逐步排入太平洋。中国在反对无效后,全面禁止日本海产品进口。中国民间也一时间反日情绪高涨。2025年,在双方协商后,中国同意启动恢复进口程序。
仇日民族主义:2024年,中国连续发生暴力袭击日本人事件。2024年6月,苏州日本学校校车遭持刀者袭击,造成一死两伤(死者为中国人);同年9月,深圳一名日本籍男童在上学途中遭持刀攻击后死亡。有分析指出,受到中国官方默许的反日宣传和民族主义煽动导致民间仇日情绪升温。日本政府要求中国采取措施保障在华日本人的安全,并呼吁北京管控社交媒体上的“恶意反日贴文”。

韩国、台湾附近活动

韩国军方表示,中俄军机周二进入其防空识别区后,韩方也起飞战机

中国军舰军机几乎每天在台湾周边运作,台北称这是北京的持续施压。

周四,台湾国防部称,中国连续第二天加强军事力量。台湾国防部称,发现了27艘军机,其中包括具有核打击能力的轰-6K战机,在执行“联合战备巡逻”,同时伴随战舰。

周三晚些时候,台湾国防部表示,中国歼-16和轰-6战机在飞越台湾西南和东南空域后,前往西太平洋进行远程训练。

上月,日本首相高市早苗作出有关“台湾有事”的表态后,引起与北京的争议。

中国声称对民主治下的台湾拥有主权,没有排除对台动用武力。台湾距离日本领土仅百余公里,周边海域也是日本所依赖的航线。

(路透社)

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© 2025年德国之声版权声明:本文所有内容受到著作权法保护,如无德国之声特别授权,不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿,并受到刑事追究。



美国协助委内瑞拉反对派诺贝尔和平奖得主马查多离国赴奥斯陆 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

11/12/2025 - 13:27

委内瑞拉反对派人士、2025诺贝尔和平奖得主玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多周四在挪威表示,她获得美国政府的支持,才得以离开祖国前往奥斯陆。

委内瑞拉反对派人士,诺贝尔和平奖得主马查多女士,错过了颁奖典礼后,终于在周三至周四凌晨抵达奥斯陆。她今天早晨访问了挪威议会。

长期在委内瑞拉秘密活动的马查多女士在挪威首都举行的新闻发布会上表示:“我们得到了美国政府的支持,才能来到这里”。

诺贝尔和平奖颁奖每年12月10日在世界人权日颁发。原本宣布要亲往奥斯陆领奖的马查多女士未能如期抵达奥斯陆出席为她举行的颁奖典礼,只得由她的女儿代为领奖。

自2024年7月争议性总统大选以来,这位对派人士一直在委内瑞拉地下活动。这是她近一年来的首次公开露面。

马查多女士周四表示,在该国当一名反对派“非常危险”。她此前为了领取诺贝尔和平奖,在情况仍不明朗的情况下离开祖国前往奥斯陆,但未能如期抵达。

马查多女士在挪威议会被问及她成功来到挪威的情况时说:“所有生活在委内瑞拉并且说真话的人,都需要冒着生命危险。”

Elite Coast Guard squad and 'dark fleet' ship - what we know about US seizure of oil tanker

Watch: Video shows US military seizing oil tanker off Venezuela coast

A US helicopter flies low over a hazy blue sea as it approaches a massive ship. It hovers as camouflaged soldiers holding rifles swing down ropes to the vessel's deck.

The video, released by the US government, shows the latest in a series of escalations in Washington's pressure campaign on Nicolás Maduro's government – the seizure of a crude oil tanker.

The US claims the tanker is used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran in an "illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations".

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil has called the seizure "international piracy" and claims US President Donald Trump wants Venezuela's energy resources.

Here's what we know.

The operation

"We have just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela - a large tanker, very large, the largest one ever seized actually," Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.

The footage of the operation was shared by Attorney General Pam Bondi on social media. Bondi said a seizure warrant for the tanker was carried out by the US Coast Guard, FBI, Homeland Security Investigations and the Department of Defence.

The exact location of the tanker at the time of the seizure is not clear, but a senior military official told BBC's US partner CBS News that the vessel had just left a port in Venezuela.

The 45-second video shows a US team walking the deck of the ship with their weapons drawn. No ship crew are visible.

The seizure involved two helicopters, 10 marines and 10 US Coast Guard members, and special operations forces, a source familiar with the operation told CBS.

The boarding of the vessel involved an elite group of the Coast Guard called the Maritime Security and Response Team, the source said.

This team is trained in counterterrorism and high-risk law enforcement boarding procedures – like the fast-rope boarding from a helicopter seen in the video. It was created after the September 11 attacks, during an overhaul of national security.

The Coast Guard led the operation with support from the Navy, officials told CBS.

Planet Labs PBC An overhead view of two oil tankers at seaPlanet Labs PBC
The Skipper (the vessel on the right) was filmed by satellite on 18 November at the José Terminal, a facility in Barcelona, Venezuela, which is used by crude oil tankers

The oil tanker

Maritime risk company Vanguard Tech identified the vessel as the Skipper and said it believed the ship had been "spoofing" its position - or broadcasting a false location - for a long time.

The ship has sailed under other names, including Toyo and Adisa, since it was built 20 years ago. The Skipper is 333m (1,092 ft) in length and 60m wide, and is classified as a very large crude carrier (VLCC).

Vanguard Tech said the vessel is "reported to be part of the dark fleet, and was sanctioned by the United States for carrying Venezuelan oil exports". The dark fleet refers to ships used to smuggle sanctioned goods.

It is believed to have left the oil port of Jose on either 4 or 5 December, with about 1.8 million barrels of heavy crude oil on board, with about 200,000 barrels transferred to another vessel before the seizure, Reuters reported, citing analysis from TankerTrackers.com and the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

The US treasury department sanctioned the Skipper in 2022, CBS reported, for alleged involvement in oil smuggling that generated revenue for the Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force in Iran.

BBC Verify located the tanker on MarineTraffic, which shows that the vessel was sailing under the flag of Guyana when its position was last updated two days prior to the seizure. A statement from Guyana's Maritime Administration Department on Wednesday evening, however, said that the Skipper was "falsely flying the Guyana Flag as it is not registered in Guyana".

MarineTraffic shows it was last near Iran in mid-September before arriving off the coast of Guyana at the end of October and making minimal further movement since then. This data may be partial or incorrect because of spoofing.

The seized oil

When asked by reporters what the US would do with the oil carried by the tanker, Trump said: "We keep it, I guess... I assume we're going to keep the oil."

Global crude oil prices are trading at roughly $61 (£46) a barrel, meaning the stash aboard the skipper could be worth more than $95m - if it does indeed comprise 1.6m barrels after 200,000 were removed. The BBC has not verified how much oil is on board the ship.

Bondi, the top prosecutor in the US, said of the seized vessel: "For multiple years, the oil tanker has been sanctioned by the United States due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations."

Maduro has accused the US of using its ongoing military buildup in the Caribbean and "war on drugs" to try and depose him and get its hands on Venezuela's oil - something the US denies.

Venezuela sits on largest known reserves of crude oil in the world. But Analysts have highlighted the complexities. The oil considered "heavy" and highly viscous, meaning that extracting it needs special equipment and knowledge.

Venezuela's ageing infrastructure and heavy sanctions from the US have also caused difficulties for the nation's efforts to monetise its vast resources.

Graphic about the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier. The top section shows a photo of the carrier at sea with text noting it carries about 4,600 sailors, travels as part of a “strike group” with other warships, has capacity for up to 90 aircraft, and cost around £13 billion to build. Below, a chart compares the carrier’s length (337m/1,106ft) to the height of The Shard (310m), Eiffel Tower (330m), and Empire State Building (381m). The bottom section shows an aerial photo of the flight deck with dimensions: length 337m (1,106ft), max width 78m (256ft), and flight deck area 18,000 sq m (4.5 acres). Source is US Department of Defense, US Congress
The world's largest warship - the USS Gerald Ford - was used as a staging post for Wednesday's tanker seizure

The wider US pressure campaign

The Trump administration has focused for much of the last year on fighting the influx of drugs - especially fentanyl and cocaine - into the US.

As part of the effort, Trump designated two Venezuelan criminal groups - Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles - as Foreign Terrorist Organisations and has alleged that the latter is led by Maduro himself.

Without providing evidence, Trump has also accused Maduro of "emptying his prisons and insane asylums" and "forcing" its inmates to migrate to the US. Stopping immigration has been another priority for the White House.

As part of the pressure campaign, the US has deployed 15,000 troops and a range of aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and amphibious assault ships to the Caribbean. Among them is the world's largest warship - the USS Gerald Ford - from which helicopters took off as part of the tanker seizure.

Since early September, US forces have carried out more than 20 strikes in international waters on boats alleged to have been carrying drugs. More than 80 people have been killed.

The Trump administration argues that it is involved in a non-international armed conflict with the alleged drug traffickers, whom it accuses of conducting irregular warfare against the US.

The US has also described those on board as "narco terrorists" but legal experts say the strikes are unlawful as that designation "did not transform them into lawful military targets".

Map showing the approximate locations of US strikes on alleged drug boats across the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean. Red circles mark strike clusters: three strikes off Mexico in the Pacific, seven strikes off the west coast of Colombia, two strikes near Central America in the Caribbean Sea, four strikes off the north coast of Venezuela and five strikes in the central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Source: Acled (most recent strike shown is 15 Nov)

Hundreds of 'high value' items taken in Bristol museum raid

Avon and Somerset Police A blurry CCTV image of four men wearing jackets and baseball caps in a street at night time. Avon and Somerset Police
Police want to speak to these four men after more than 600 artefacts were stolen

More than 600 artefacts "of significant cultural value" have been stolen from Bristol Museum's archive in a "high-value" raid, police say.

Four men gained entry to a building in the Cumberland Basin area of the city in the early hours of 25 September, Avon and Somerset Police said.

Items from the museum's British Empire and Commonwealth collection were stolen and detectives are now trying to trace four males captured in the area on CCTV.

"The theft of many items which carry a significant cultural value is a significant loss for the city," Det Con Dan Burgan said.

Avon and Somerset Police Two CCTV images places side by side. One is a man in a dark jacket, grey trousers and white hat and carrying a bag. The second is a group of all four males in the street, they all have hats or their hoods up. All are carrying bags. Avon and Somerset Police
The men are described as being white and were all wearing jackets and baseball caps

"These items, many of which were donations, form part of a collection that provides insight into a multi-layered part of British history, and we are hoping that members of the public can help us to bring those responsible to justice," he added.

"So far, our enquiries have included significant CCTV enquiries as well as forensic investigations and speaking liaising with the victims."

Police are keen to speak to anyone who recognises the men captured on CCTV, or who may have seen possible stolen items being sold online.

All of the men are thought to be white. The first was described as of medium to stocky build and was wearing a white cap, black jacket, light-coloured trousers and black trainers.

The second was described as being of slim build and was wearing a grey, hooded jacket, black trousers and black trainers.

The third was wearing a green cap, black jacket, light-coloured shorts and white trainers. Police said he appeared to walk with a slight limp in his right leg.

The fourth was described as being of large build and was wearing a two-toned orange and navy or black puffy jacket, black trousers and black and white trainers.

Follow BBC Bristol on Facebook, X and Instagram. Send your story ideas to us on email or via WhatsApp on 0800 313 4630.

Sir Chris Hoy breaks leg in 'worst' crash of his life while riding mountain bike

Hoy breaks leg in 'worst' crash of his life

Sir Chris Hoy Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Sir Chris Hoy won Olympic gold medals at the Athens 2004, Beijing 2008 and London 2012 Games

  • Published

Sir Chris Hoy says he is on crutches and "hobbling about" after breaking a leg in a cycling crash which he described as the "worst" of his life.

Six-time Olympic champion Hoy announced in October 2024 that his cancer is terminal, but the 49-year-old has continued to ride his mountain bike since entering "a bit of a stability period" in his treatment.

However, in an interview with Sky Sports, the Scotsman said: "I've smashed my leg up, that's the worst thing that's happened recently. You just don't bounce like you do when you're younger.

"It was a big one. I'm doing better now, I'm still on crutches, hobbling about.

"Worse things happen. I've been riding bikes for 43 years and it's the worst crash I've ever had. I'm pretty lucky that's the worst one I've had in all those years of riding."

Hoy, whose seven Olympic medals also include one silver, is Britain's second-most decorated Olympic athlete behind fellow track cyclist Sir Jason Kenny (seven golds).

He also claimed 11 World Championship golds and 34 World Cup titles before retiring in 2013.

"I want to live my life and I want to make the most of it. None of us are here forever so you want to make the most of the time you have and do the things you enjoy," said Hoy.

"I've just had an unfortunate spill and it's the way the cookie crumbles. I'm doing alright now, I wasn't doing so well in the immediate aftermath of it, but looking forward to Christmas."

Hoy announced in February 2024 that he was undergoing treatment for prostate cancer.

He confirmed in October 2024 that his diagnosis was terminal after the primary cancer spread to his bones, with doctors giving him between two and four years to live.

Hoy said his terminal cancer diagnosis has improved his life "in some ways" because it has changed his outlook.

"It's changed my life without question, but I think in some ways it's improved my life," Hoy told BBC Sport in November.

"It's changed my outlook on a lot of things. I'm not as bothered by small things. I think I try and focus on the here and the now, enjoying the moment, making the most of today, and trying to find something positive in any situation.

"I'm doing well. I'm able to keep doing all the things that I enjoy, spend a lot of time with my family, and I hope to be around for a lot longer yet."

Related topics

'I am to be executed like a criminal': Mary Queen of Scots' final letter to go on rare display

BBC The letter surrounded by a white frame, with two people's hands holding on ot the edges of the frameBBC
The letter will go on display at Perth Museum for three months

The public are to be given a rare chance to see the last letter by Mary Queen of Scots, which was written just hours before she was beheaded.

Mary penned the letter in the cell where she had been imprisoned for 19 years by her cousin, Queen Elizabeth I.

Mary tells her brother-in-law, King Henri III of France, that she is "to be executed like a criminal at eight in the morning".

The manuscript will be on show at Perth Museum for three months.

It will be the first time in a generation that the letter will be on prolonged public display.

There were long queues outside the National Library of Scotland's George IV Bridge building in Edinburgh the last time it went on show in 2017.

Mary Queen of Scots was executed on 8 February 1587 for plotting against Elizabeth.

The four-page letter was written in her native French from her prison cell at Fotheringhay Castle, Northamptonshire.

Mary asserts her right to the English crown and her belief that she was being persecuted for her Catholic faith.

She says: "I scorn death and vow that I meet it innocent of any crime."

Mary also asks for her servants' wages to be paid after her death, and signs off: "Your very loving and most true sister, Mary R."

Chris Cassels, a man with short greying hair and glasses, standing in front of a bookcase and a wall chart.
Chris Cassels says the letter has a "relic-like quality"

The manuscript is usually kept in secure storage at the National Library of Scotland (NLS).

Chris Cassels, head of archives and manuscript collections, said it was incredibly special to see it "in the flesh".

"It is really important in that it gives us an insight into Mary's final hours on earth. It is obviously testimony to how she views herself in those final moments," he said.

Mary Stuart was nine months old when she was crowned Queen of Scots following the death of her father, James V, in 1542.

She was raised in France, where she married the heir to the throne, the Dauphin Francis.

Mary was widowed by the age of 18 and returned to Scotland to rule as queen at a time when her Catholicism was viewed with suspicion.

Shona Hunter standing in front of bookcases filled with books. She has short brown hair and glasses and is wearing a green shirt.
Shona Hunter says they want to reduce the amount of light on the letter

Mr Cassels said Mary's "sincerity of religious conviction" stood out in the letter which had a "relic-like quality".

"It's in her own hand. It has her signature. She touched it. She folded it up to be sent off to France in the hours right before her death.

"So it's undeniably a really special document."

The manuscript is kept in a specially-designed mount to protect it from damage.

Shona Hunter, who works conserving documents at the NLS, said they had to strike a balance between giving people access now while also making sure others will be able to see it in the future.

"It's such an important and precious document that we're really careful about who will see it because we want to reduce the amount of light that will fall onto the object," she said.

A black and white sketch of Mary wearing formal 16th century dress and head dress.
Mary Queen of Scots was executed in 1587

Bright or ultraviolet light, in particular, could cause irreversible damage to the letter.

"What we need to do is monitor, control and, where possible, just reduce the amount of light exposure and that way we protect it for generations to come."

The letter will be on display for three months as part of an exhibition at Perth Museum which is due to open on 23 January.

Ashleigh Hibbins, head of audiences at the museum, said it was a "huge coup".

She said Mary had many links to the area and spent a lot of time in Perthshire.

"Most famously, she was actually imprisoned for 11 months in Loch Leven Castle, " she said.

This was where she abdicated the throne in favour of her baby son, James VI.

Ashleigh Hibbins, a woman with long wavy brown hair, standing in front of a framed picture. She is wearing a black top and a necklace.
Ashleigh Hibbins, head of audiences at the museum, said it was a "huge coup"

James was estranged from his mother from infancy and raised a Protestant.

In 1603, following the death of Queen Elizabeth I without a direct heir, he became James I of England, uniting the crowns of the two old enemies.

The fractured relationship with his mother Mary was evident in the hours before her death.

She wrote: "As for my son, I commend him to you in so far as he deserves, for I cannot answer for him."

Ms Hibbins said she believed the intrigue around the life and death of the "doomed queen" would attract visitors.

"To have her last words on display for the first time in a generation, and we believe the first time it's been seen north of Edinburgh, is just fantastic for us," she added.

"It feels like a bit of a homecoming."

Why is flu so bad this winter - and should you buy a vaccine?

Getty Images An unwell woman sits on her sofa, coughing Getty Images

Flu has come early this year and experts predict it could be a particularly nasty season because a new strain of the virus is circulating.

The NHS has already sent out a "flu jab SOS" to vulnerable people.

How bad might this winter be, and should you buy a flu jab even if you are generally fit, even if you have to pay for it?

Who needs a flu jab?

The NHS offers a free flu vaccine to people who need it most, including:

  • anyone aged 65 or over
  • those have certain long-term health conditions
  • pregnant women
  • care home residents
  • carers for older or disabled people, or those who receive a carer's allowance
  • people who live with someone who has a weakened immune system

Frontline health and social care workers can also get a flu vaccine through their employer.

A nasal spray version of the flu vaccine is also offered to children aged 2 to 3 years as well as school-aged children (reception to year 11).

Children can catch and spread flu easily. Vaccinating them also helps protect others who are at higher risk of getting seriously ill from flu.

Everyone else has to buy one.

Should I buy a flu shot?

Even if you are healthy, you might still want to buy a flu vaccine this winter.

Vaccines still work against the drifted influenza A(H3N2) strain that some are calling "super flu".

High street chemists sell the vaccine for around £20.

It's best to get vaccinated sooner to protect yourself during winter.

How long does it take for the vaccine to work?

The vaccine usually takes up to 14 days to work.

During this period, you're still vulnerable to catching the virus.

Some people mistakenly think the vaccine has given them flu, but the vaccine does not cause flu - instead, it gives your body the instructions it needs to fight off an infection should you catch it.

There's still a chance you might get flu after getting vaccinated, but it's likely to be milder and not last as long.

Protection decreases over time which is why a vaccine is offered every year.

The vaccine is frequently updated to best match the strain or version of flu that experts expect will be circulating.

Is it a cold, 'super flu' or Covid?

There are lots of coughs and colds doing the rounds. So how do you know if you have flu rather than something else? Your symptoms can give a clue.

Colds

  • Symptoms appear gradually
  • Mostly affect nose and throat
  • Early sign - pressure in your ears
  • Chestier, mucus cough

Flu

  • Comes on suddenly
  • Feel wiped out
  • Fever, muscle aches, exhaustion
  • Need bed rest
  • Dry cough

Covid

  • Typical flu symptoms
  • Loss of taste or smell
  • Diarrhoea or tummy upset

What else can I do to protect myself?

If you're meeting people indoors, open a window for fresh air.

Practise good hygiene:

  • cough into your bent elbow, or use a tissue and dispose of it afterwards in the nearest bin
  • wash your hands frequently with warm water and soap
  • clean your surroundings often, especially areas that are touched frequently such as door handles

If you are unwell but must go out, consider wearing a face mask to help protect others.

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