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王毅:中国支持阿联酋在国际和地区事务发挥更大作用

正在中东访问的中国外长王毅说,中国支持阿联酋在国际和地区事务中发挥更大作用,中国也愿同阿联酋加强高层往来,巩固政治互信。

中国外交部在官网公布,王毅星期五(12月12日)在阿布扎比同阿联酋副总理兼外长阿卜杜拉举行会谈。

王毅形容阿联酋是有独特重要影响的中东国家,中阿两国发展战略契合、执政理念相近、经济高度互补,是天然的朋友和伙伴。中国始终从战略高度把握两国关系方向,从外交全局推动两国关系发展。建交40多年来,中阿两国相互尊重、相互支持,双边关系经受住国际风云考验,保持健康稳定发展。

他强调,中国支持阿联酋走符合本国国情的发展道路,支持阿联酋为维护国家安全和发展采取的措施,支持阿联酋在国际和地区事务中发挥更大作用。中国愿同阿联酋加强高层往来,巩固政治互信,提升两国关系水平。

王毅说,双方要持续推进共建“一带一路”,深化投资、油气、基建等传统领域合作,开拓新能源、科技创新等新兴领域合作,探索开展三方合作,办好两国产能合作示范园。双方也要促进旅游、高校、青年、民航、智库等领域合作,密切人文交流,争取尽早实现在阿联酋200所学校开设中文课程的目标。

他也说,中国将在明年举办第二届中阿峰会,欢迎阿联酋领导人赴华出席。希望阿联酋为推动尽早完成中国和海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会自贸协定谈判发挥积极作用。中国也愿同阿联酋在金砖国家、上海合作组织、联合国等多边平台加强政策沟通和立场协调,共同维护多边主义和自由贸易,捍卫国际公平正义,推动构建更加公正合理的全球治理体系。

中国外交部也公布,双方就中东局势等问题交换了意见。

王毅自星期五起访问阿联酋、沙特、约旦三个中东国家,一直到下星期二(16日)。

雄安常住人口达140万 比五年前增加20万

中国国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明表示,雄安常住人口已达140万左右。这一数字比五年前增加20万。

据央视新闻,中国国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明星期六(12月13日)在中国国际经济交流中心举办的2025至2026中国经济年会上表示,明年要推动区域协调发展,巩固提升京津冀等区域高质量发展动力源作用。积极稳妥推进在京高校、医院、央企、金融机构、科研院所、事业单位疏解项目在雄安新区落地建设。

肖渭明说,目前,雄安常住人口已达140万左右,较此前实现显著增长,新型城市化雏形已初步显现。

根据新华社今年2月的报道,雄安新区自2017年4月宣布设立以来人口持续增长,2024年底雄安常住人口达136.07万人。而在2020年,中国第七次全国人口普查数据,雄安新区常住人口为120.5万人。

河北雄安新区于2017年成立。官方媒体称,雄安新区是中国领导人习近平为核心的中共中央作出的一项重大的历史性战略选择,是千年大计、国家大事。

但外界不时有怀疑声音,认为雄安并未有大发展。官方在河北省政府新闻办召开的“十四五”高质量发展河北答卷系列主题新闻发布会上官方公布,“十四五”以来,雄安新区每年保持2000亿元(人民币,366.29亿新元)投资规模,累计完成投资工作量超10000亿元,地区生产总值年均增长17.1%。

石泰峰出席南京大屠杀死难者公祭仪式:大力弘扬抗战精神

12月13日是中国南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日,在江苏南京,侵华日军南京大屠杀遇难同胞纪念馆举行升国旗和下半旗仪式。 (中新社)

中共政治局委员、中组部部长石泰峰在南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭仪式上强调,要大力弘扬伟大抗战精神,为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业而努力奋斗。

据新华社报道,中共中央、中国国务院星期六(12月13日)上午在南京隆重举行2025年南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭仪式。石泰峰出席并讲话。

石泰峰在讲话中说,“今天我们隆重集会,深切缅怀南京大屠杀的无辜死难者,缅怀所有惨遭日本侵略者杀戮的死难同胞,缅怀为中国人民抗日战争胜利献出生命的革命先烈和民族英雄,缅怀同中国人民并肩抗击日本侵略者而英勇献身的国际战士和国际友人,表达中国人民坚定不移走和平发展道路的崇高愿望,共同铭记历史、缅怀先烈、珍爱和平、开创未来”。

石泰峰强调,要“大力弘扬伟大抗战精神,踔厉奋发、勇毅前行,为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业而努力奋斗,为人类和平与发展的崇高事业作出更大贡献”。

中国全国人大常委会会议2014年通过决定,以立法形式将12月13日设立为南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日。

Witkoff to meet Zelensky for latest Ukraine war talks

Reuters Steve WitkoffReuters
US special envoy Steve Witkoff will hold talks with European leaders in Berlin at the weekend

US President Donald Trump's overseas envoy will travel to Germany this weekend to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders for the latest round of high-level talks on ending the war.

Steve Witkoff, who has been leading White House attempts to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, will discuss the latest version of the proposed peace agreement in Berlin.

The Trump administration is pushing for a deal to be in place by Christmas and has held several rounds of talks with Ukrainian and Russian representatives in recent weeks, though there has been little sign a breakthrough is imminent.

It has not yet been confirmed which European leaders will attend the Berlin talks.

The Wall Street Journal, which first reported details of the meeting, said UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz would all take part.

The Witkoff-Zelensky meeting comes days after Ukraine gave the US its revised version of a 20-point peace plan, the latest iteration of a proposal which first emerged in late November and has triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity.

The fate of territory in eastern Ukraine remains one of the most intractable topics in the negotiations, with Kyiv refusing to cede land which has been illegally occupied, and Moscow repeating its intention to take the Donbas region in full by force unless Ukraine withdraws.

Zelensky has reacted sceptically to the White House's latest proposal on resolving the territorial question, which is for Ukraine's army to pull out of the region and for it to be turned into a "special economic zone".

The Ukrainian president told reporters that under the US-proposed terms, the Kremlin would undertake not to advance into the areas vacated by Ukraine's forces, with the land between Russian-controlled parts of the Donbas and Ukraine's defensive lines effectively turned into a demilitarised zone.

The proposal, seemingly an attempt to resolve the question of legal ownership by creating a new status for the land, has been publicly questioned by Zelensky, who said: "What will restrain [Russia] from advancing? Or from infiltrating disguised as civilians?"

Map showing which areas of east of Ukraine are under Russian military control or limited Russian control

Ukraine and allies in Europe have said publicly that the US-led talks have been fruitful, and have hailed progress on securing amendments to a plan which was widely viewed as favouring Russia when it first emerged.

But there have been signs in recent weeks that Trump is losing patience with Zelensky and his backers on the continent.

In a scathing interview with Politico earlier this week, the US president labelled European leaders "weak" and renewed his calls for Ukraine to hold elections.

Zelensky said elections could be held within 90 days if the US and Europe provided the necessary security. Elections have been suspended since martial law was declared when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

As the White House's diplomatic push continues, attention in Europe is focused on how to support Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, with talks ongoing over security guarantees and funding.

The Ukrainian government faces a stark financial situation: it needs to find an extra €135.7bn (£119bn; $159bn) over the next two years.

On Friday, European Union governments agreed to indefinitely freeze around €210bn (£185bn; $247) worth of Russian assets held in Europe.

It is hoped that agreement paves the way for the funds to be loaned back to Ukraine if a deal can be reached at an EU summit next week, providing Kyiv with financial help for its military and efforts to rebuild parts of the country left devastated after nearly four years of all-out war.

That move has been condemned as theft by the Kremlin, and Russia's central bank has said it will sue Euroclear, a Belgian bank where the vast majority of Russian assets frozen after the invasion are held.

Officials were still negotiating the exact structure of a deal to repurpose the Russian assets on behalf of Ukraine, with the Belgian government being particularly sceptical due to its particular legal exposure as the main holder.

Elsewhere, it was reported that the latest version of the peace plan being circulated envisions Ukraine rapidly joining the European Union.

The Financial Times said Brussels backed Ukraine's swift accession to the bloc, an idea proposed by Ukraine in the latest draft it has given to Washington.

Ukraine formally applied to join the EU days after the 2022 invasion but despite promises of an accelerated process is still several years away from becoming a member.

Under the plan, Ukraine would become a member as soon as January 2027, AFP reported, citing an unnamed senior official. It was unclear whether Washington had approved that element of the draft.

中央财办官员:下更大气力推进解决拖欠企业账款

中共中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀表示,要继续纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,下更大的气力推进解决拖欠企业账款问题。

据央视新闻报道,中国国际经济交流中心举办的2025至2026中国经济年会上,韩文秀介绍,继续规范涉企执法行为,深入整治内卷式竞争,综合运用标准引领、价格执法等监管手段,形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。

韩文秀说,要制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案,完善民营经济促进法配套法规政策,下更大的气力推进解决拖欠企业账款问题,坚决防止前清后欠。

台湾抗日电影《赛德克·巴莱》大陆重映 首日上座率不足1%

台湾抗日主题电影《赛德克·巴莱》在中国大陆重映,效果不佳,首日上座率不足1%。

据香港《明报》报道,《赛德克·巴莱》(上半部)星期五(12月12日)在大陆上映,首日票房仅56.4万元(人民币,下同,10.33万新元),上座率不足1%。有广东东莞网民表示,“全场就我买的两张票在看”。

《赛德克·巴莱(下)》于星期六(12月13日)上映。猫眼电影专业版显示,《赛德克·巴莱》上、下两部,综合票房分别为88.4万、37.7万,票房占比分别为0.4%和0.5%。

New photos from Epstein estate show Trump, Andrew and Bill Clinton

House Oversight Committee US President Donald Trump is pictured with a group of women in a photo released from the House Oversight Committee from the Epstein estateHouse Oversight Committee
US President Donald Trump was among several prominent figures featured in the images released on Friday

More images from the estate of convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein have been released by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee.

The Democrats said the 19 images came from a tranche of 95,000 photos the committee received from Epstein's estate as part of its ongoing investigation.

US President Donald Trump, former Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon are among the high-profile figures featured in the photos. The images, many of which have been seen before, do not imply wrongdoing.

It comes one week before a deadline for the US justice department to release all Epstein-related documents, which are separate from the images shared by the committee on Friday.

Watch: Massie and Garcia on latest photos from Epstein estate

The individuals featured in the images have not yet commented. Many of them have previously denied wrongdoing in relation to Epstein.

In a statement, Representative Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the committee, said: "It is time to end this White House cover-up and bring justice to the survivors of Jeffrey Epstein and his powerful friends."

"These disturbing photos raise even more questions about Epstein and his relationships with some of the most powerful men in the world. We will not rest until the American people get the truth. The Department of Justice must release all the files, NOW" he added.

Republicans, who are in the majority on the committee, have accused Democrats of "cherry-picking photos and making targeted redactions to create a false narrative about President Trump".

The White House called the release a "Democrat hoax" against Trump that has been "repeatedly debunked".

Trump appeared in three of the images released on Friday. One image showed him standing next to a woman whose face has been redacted.

Another showed Trump standing next to Epstein while talking to model Ingrid Seynhaeve at a 1997 Victoria's Secret party in New York – an image that was already publicly available.

House Oversight Committee Trump pictured standing next to Epstein while talking to model Ingrid Seynhaeve at a party in 1997.House Oversight Committee

A third photo showed Trump smiling with several women, whose faces have also been redacted, flanked on either side of him.

An additional photo showed an illustrated likeness of the president on red packets next to a sign that reads: "Trump Condom".

House Oversight Committee Photo showing an illustrated likeness of the president on red packets next to a sign that reads: "Trump Condom".House Oversight Committee
House Oversight Committee One image showed him standing next to a woman whose face has been redacted.House Oversight Committee

Among the images released was what appeared to be cropped photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor next to Bill Gates. A fuller version of the photo, which was available on photo agency Getty Images, showed King Charles, the then-Prince of Wales, on the right side of the photo.

The Getty Images' caption said the picture was taken during a summit during the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in London in April 2018.

Getty Images Prince Andrew Mountbatten next to Bill GatesGetty Images

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was also pictured in some of the images. He was shown speaking with Epstein at a desk, and in another, standing beside him in front of a mirror.

House Oversight Committee Bannon pictured at a desk speaking with Epstein. House Oversight Committee

A third image showed him speaking with filmmaker Woody Allen.

A photo featuring former US President Bill Clinton's showed him standing next to Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 for her role in facilitating the disgraced financier's abuse.

Two other people the BBC has yet to identify are also in the image, which appeared to have been signed by Clinton.

Clinton has denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein. In 2019, a spokesperson said he "knows nothing about the terrible crimes" Epstein pleaded guilty to.

Other prominent figures which appear in the images include US economist Larry Summers, lawyer Alan Dershowitz and entrepreneur Richard Branson. Not all the images show those individuals in the company of Epstein.

Epstein was charged with sex trafficking in July 2019. He died in prison a month later while awaiting trail.

The president was a friend of Epstein's, but has said they fell out in the early 2000s, years before he was first arrested.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein.

The justice department is required to release investigative material related to Epstein by 19 December under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which was signed into law by Trump last month.

Doctor strike during flu outbreak would be 'beyond belief', says Starmer

EPA Headshot of Sir Keir Starmer in a suit sitting in front of two bright lamps and a UK flag.EPA

Sir Keir Starmer has urged resident doctors not to go ahead with "reckless" strikes planned for next week, saying it is "beyond belief" they could take place during a flu outbreak.

The prime minister said the NHS is in its "most precarious moment" since the coronavirus pandemic due to soaring flu cases across the UK, and that strikes would put the healthcare system and its patients in "grave danger".

The doctors' union, the British Medical Association (BMA), is polling its members to see if they are willing to call off the walkout, with the results to be released on Monday.

But if they vote against it, a five-day strike by resident doctors will begin two days later on Wednesday 17 December.

A BMA spokesperson said the government could stop the strike by tackling pay, conditions and trust with a credible offer.

Flu has come early this winter, and it looks to be a particularly nasty season because of a new mutated version of the virus which is circulating, say experts.

Many are now calling it "super flu", but it is not more severe nor harder to treat.

An average of 2,660 patients per day were in hospital with flu in England last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% on the week before, NHS England said.

Flu cases are also rising in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, figures show.

Children and young people are particularly affected by the outbreak, health officials said.

Writing in the Guardian, Sir Keir said the strikes "should not happen" and said resident doctors, formerly known as junior doctors, should accept a deal to avert industrial action.

Sir Keir said as well as the government's new offer, they had also given the BMA the chance to reschedule the strikes until after Christmas.

"Don't get me wrong – of course I would rather they were cancelled... But under the circumstances, I wanted to be sure we have left no stone unturned in our efforts to protect the NHS," he said.

The BMA said it will ask its members whether the government's offer will be enough to call off Wednesday's strikes.

If members indicate yes, then they will be given time to consider the offer in more detail and a formal follow-up referendum would be held on ending the dispute completely.

The offer aims to address problems for some doctors trying to find work and to provide more training places for newly qualified medics to progress in their careers.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting made a similar intervention to Sir Keir's on Friday, warning strikes coupled with increasing flu patients would be a "double whammy" for the NHS.

However, the medical director for the NHS in London, Chris Streather, said the flu situation was "well within the boundaries" of what the NHS could cope with and that hospitals were better prepared for large disease outbreaks since the Covid pandemic.

木蹊说|我实在不知道,明朝有什么好悼念的?

01

据说,最近个别网红历史博主通过对《红楼梦》的解读,掀起了好几百万网友开展“悼明运动”。

其核心思想认为:

明朝遥遥领先,历代君主个个英明无比,资本主义萌芽诞生,工业水平傲视全球。

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但!满清用野蛮的马蹄和培养汉奸等不正当手段,窃取了大明王朝的果实,糟蹋了华夏土地,残暴杀害汉族人民,打压汉族文化,以至于近代中国远远落后于西方。

所以,《红楼梦》的诞生,是为了悼念明朝,抨击清朝的。

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CDT 档案卡
标题:我实在不知道,明朝有什么好悼念的?
作者:木蹊
发表日期:2025.12.12
来源:微信公众号-木蹊说
主题归类:悼明运动
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

怎么看待这个论调?

我突然想到的了电影《霸王别姬》中的一段台词:

“程当晚所唱是昆曲《牡丹亭》《游园》一折,略有国学常识者都明白,此折乃国剧文化中之最精粹,何以在检察官口中竟成了淫词艳曲了呢?”

《红楼梦》当然是抨击清朝社会的,但绝不是因为悼念明朝。

按照德国马老师的历史唯物主义观,新事物的诞生具有必然性,清朝取代明朝,是有历史必然性的,而这个选择,正是人民的选择。

没错,清朝之所以能以少打多,迅速拿下朱家王朝,主要依靠的并不是八旗子弟有多能打,而是广大汉族人民的支持。

这可能会颠覆一些人的认知:扬州十日,嘉定三屠,大兴文字yu,都被你读到狗肚子里去了吗?

02

确实,清朝空前强化了封建集权,制造了杀害汉族人民的种种血案。

但大家有没有想过,为什么如此野蛮、残暴的大清,依然能干掉大明呢?

原因是明朝的晚期,广大老百姓已经被大明的官“辽”JJ压榨到了极点。

这几年《大明王朝1566》的走红就非常能说明问题:

“上下挥霍无度,便掠之于民;民变在即,便掠之于商。”

这里的“商人”,可不是什么小商小贩,而那些买田大户、丝绸大户,像沈一石一样的富商,家中拥有几十万亩田地的人,有万千家产的商人。

那么这些商人又是怎么成长起来的呢?

原因就是大明官“辽”体系的扶持:在大明,能做好生意,能把生意做大的,必须要依靠一个山头,必须要朝中有人。

而搞这些商人,势必会动到这些山头,动到自己人,从而导致官“辽”JJ的分裂和矛盾激化。

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在和平时期,这种现象表现为:自诩为清流的徐阶干掉了严嵩后,自己成为了比严嵩还黑的“徐半朝”。

所谓的“清流”一旦得势,比严党还过分。

在战争时期,这些得益于大明体制的官“辽”JJ,也没有选择忠君爱国,而是早早为自己铺好后路:

转移资产,暗自投敌,互相扯皮。

以至于在面对清军入关之时,除了极个别像袁崇焕这样的“奇葩”,大多数统领都毫无抵抗意志,帅指挥不动将,将指挥不动兵。

就像《潜伏》里吴敬中站长总结的那样:

“天津站的得失在什么?在于几个偷鸡摸狗的强盗吗?在于几个吃里扒外的间谍吗?那么多重兵把守的大城市丢了,那么多战功卓著的整编军丢了,什么原因?我们还在这里搜情报,抓内奸,试图保住大天津堡垒,不滑稽吗?

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吴站长的话,说白了就是一句话:

朝代的更替,归根到底是人民的选择。

崇祯三年(1630年),明朝人口约1.92亿,到了崇祯十七年(1644年)仅剩约1.5亿。‌‌

被官差和资本家压榨,土地兼并异常严重,反腐者沦为腐败者,老百姓实在受不了大明腐败的苦了,于是有了越来越多的民变。

杀牛羊,备酒浆,开了城门迎闯王,闯王来了不纳粮。

闯王李自成为什么能轻轻松松杀到北京,没办法,一路上都是“带路党”啊!

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而清朝入关之后,虽然制造了一些惨案,但也颁布了很多利好人民,利好生产的政策。

‌康熙时期‌:推行“滋生人丁永不加赋”,人口增至约2亿。‌‌

雍正时期:推行火耗归公和摊丁入亩,抑制腐败,主动打击八旗利益,第一次取消了“农业人头税”,极大鼓励了老百姓生孩子的热情。

而自己却996+超长熬夜,加班加到死。

‌乾隆时期‌:延续了雍正的政策,人口突破3亿。‌‌

‌道光时期‌:达4亿以上,占全球人口40%。‌‌

我们总说,动物的繁衍是因为环境,而这个数据恰恰证明了清朝的前中期,环境是非常有利于百姓的。

套用李敖的一句话:你只看到了清杀了多少人,怎么不看它活了多少人的呢?

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再比皇帝,清朝的皇帝是史学界出了名的:没有一个昏君。

明朝中后期有很多皇帝是非常不堪的:乱伦,不上朝,搞木匠活……

清朝呢,你可以说他政策有问题,但不要怀疑他们的勤政。

努尔哈赤以十三副铠甲起兵,统一女真族,建立后金,堪称创业传奇。

皇太极重用汉人,推崇汉文化,极大收获了民心,为清朝入主中原打下坚实基础。

顺治虽然出家了,但没做过荒唐事。

康熙平三藩、收台湾、亲征噶尔丹,极大扩大了清朝的版图(比明朝大,中华秋海棠叶遂成一统),推行满汉融合,开创了 “康乾盛世” 。

雍正勤政改革,大力整顿吏治,充实国库。乾隆不折腾,经济、文化达到了最高峰。

道光十分节俭,曾下令 “宫中用度岁不可超二十万”,龙袍都是打补丁的。

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咸丰面对内忧外患,力排众议,重用汉臣曾国藩、李鸿章,兴利除弊。

同治、光绪都想改革,但都因触碰了慈禧等保守派利益而失败。

溥仪积极改造思想,自称是新中国的子民,教员的孩子,觉悟完全提升了N个档次。但即便如此,清朝晚期也如明朝晚期一样动荡、腐败。

我不喜欢大清,也不会喜欢任何一个封建王朝,且清朝的衰落也是因为跟不上时代:

1 和明朝一样,被官“辽”JJ反噬,最终没能走出周期律,正如《红楼梦》所写:金陵城无非四大家族。

2 海外科技大爆发,英美列强变法图强,强到过分。

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这两点,对我们当下都非常有警示意义,比如:

1 坚持改革开放,积极融入全球化。

2 反腐不仅要抓末端、治已病,更要抓前端、从制度上保证不能腐。

3 把权力关在笼子里,严厉打击官“辽”JJ,以及这些官“辽”JJ背后掌控的资本、企业,让老百姓能说话、能监督。

4 注意贫富问题。

但是“悼明派”这帮人的主张是什么呢?

我大汉自古以来无比优秀,遥遥领先,都是蛮夷坏了我们,责任都在大清,都在列强!

这种思路对吗?

我只能说,这又是某个团的变种,是一种无能狂怒,看似是在解读经典,实际是在歪曲典籍,把《红楼梦》反封建的核心思想,异化成了“大明遥遥领先论”。

其思极恐,其心可诛,其人该封!综上所述:明朝,清朝都没什么好支持的,该支持的是“民”朝!一个为了人民、服务人民的朝!

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黑噪音|内需不足,依然是中国经济最核心的问题

编者荐语:

中央经济工作会议刚落幕,我的经济号为大家带来最深入的解读。大家可以顺手关注这个号,以防失联。

以下文章来源于倪刃聊经济 ,作者倪刃

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倪刃聊经济.

主要关注宏观经济、财经、投资领域。与《黑噪音》公众号为同一个作者——倪刃。

中央经济工作会议,是中国经济最重要的风向标。

会议闭幕后发布的内容,2026年八项任务之中的第一条就是提振内需。不知道大家还记得不,前两年提出的“有效需求不足”也是中央经济工作会议上首次讲的。

“有效需求不足成为制约经济循环的关键堵点。”这也是官方对此的表述之一。

很多人可能以为,内需问题是近几年经济降速以后才出现的问题,其实并不是。内需这事儿,由来已久,跟中国改革开放以后的发展模式相关。

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CDT 档案卡
标题:内需不足,依然是中国经济最核心的问题
作者:倪刃
发表日期:2025.12.12
来源:微信公众号“黑噪音”
主题归类:中国经济
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

改革开放以后,经济的发展并不是一直走同一条路,经历了很多的摸索与尝试。1990年代初,整个经济的气氛都很低迷,直到“南海边划了圈儿”之后,一方面经济特区确实起到了带动作用——比如很多人可以南下深圳打工,另一方面信心也被提振起来了,敢放手下海搞民营经济的人多了起来。

以上是民资的情况,还要看国资。1998年国企改革,是国资的改变,一直到2000年代初,民资的脚步越来越快,叠加入了世贸,看上去大有民资主导的趋势。

但很快,这种情况就被扭转了。2000年代初,国资重新主导命脉行业、关键行业成为新的战略,许多行业的民资(比如能源)都退出了,国资重新崛起,这时候又来了一个非常关键的事情:土地财政。

这时候,我们所看到的“二十年奇迹”,才初步建立了结构:地方政府作为“投资者”和“老板”,国资和民资作为“中层干部和员工”,一起驱动经济快速增长。

这个模式大概就是:地方政府通过土地财政变得超级有钱,于是他们“搭台”,让国资与民资来争相“唱戏”。基本上,基础设施建设主要靠国资,而招商引资的对象主要是民营企业。

但要注意,核心是什么?就是地方政府的投资。如果没有这个投资,“搭台”很难,戏也没法唱。

好处在于,这种模式以最快的速度让中国经济实现了双重协奏曲:基建大规模铺开,遍地开花的铁路、高速公路、桥梁,还有城市的大规模翻新,让台资、港资、欧美资本愿意进入中国,内资民营企业也发展迅速。

但坏处在于,路径依赖。

一开始,大家还觉得政府投资只是为了给发展繁荣、多元化的经济铺路,但后来才发现,地方政府的投资迟迟不退场,甚至不断扩大,成了经济驱动的主导。这样一来,问题就不断突出。

因为,地方政府本来只是收税和转移支付的环节,但现在它既要做裁判员,又要做经济行为主导者,天然的会捆绑太多利益和资源,导致民营资本的萎缩,同时会造成红利吞噬。

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这是因为,民营资本做大以后,通常都会进行再投资——这就是资本驱动经济发展的根源。但政府投资所得到的收益,钱很难再投资,然后循环到资本、消费、生产的环节当中,而是会沉淀下来。

这时候,地方政府只能“被迫花钱”,因为手上的钱实在是太多了。于是,过度基建、面子工程、重复建设、财政浪费,全都来了。

这就是内需不足的结构性秘密。

因为,社会创造的财富,并没有循环为“活钱”,而是大量转化为了“死钱”。

这其中也有银行的问题。银行在每一个环节当中都是得利者,于是,大量的“死钱”就是沉淀到了银行手中。我们现在面对的就是这个问题,全社会并不是没钱,但问题是钱转动不起来。

内需不足的根本解决方式,并不是要简单的让老百姓拿一笔钱去消费,而是要让沉淀下来的死钱,重新循环到资本——投资——生产——消费的循环之中。

这就是为什么政府投资主导的经济发展模式会有问题。经济的本质是循环,但地方政府天然无法作为循环的一个环节。

当然,2000年之后二十年的经济奇迹,政府投资起到了加速器的作用。

但问题也同样很大,内需不足的问题一直延续,甚至加重——因为政府投资驱动的模式始终没有改变过。

然后,土地财政终结,地方政府也没钱了。

这时候钱在哪?在基建、在银行,但就是无法转化为经济循环当中的流动性。

所以,现在内需问题的本质在于经济的流动性失速。但流动性不是想有就能有的,它需要:科学的收入分配机制(保证钱能循环到民众手里)、地方政府的行为边界清晰(它不能自己成为食利者)、民营企业的信心(它们敢于将手中的利润再投资)、国资只是经济的参与者(公平竞争)。

到这大家就明白了:内需问题是一个综合的结构性问题,这个问题来自于二十年的路径依赖——政府投资驱动和国资、银行的优势地位,导致了资金沉淀、流动性缺失。

那么,解方也只有对症下药才能找到。如果光靠家电国补这些,恐怕很难。

·END·

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食通社|借贷养羊,青海牧民又熬过一年

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CDT 档案卡
标题:借贷养羊,青海牧民又熬过一年
作者:焦小芳 谢小丹
发表日期:2025.12.12
来源:微信公众号“宾曰语云”
主题归类:民生
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

1 夏牧场:最后的牧歌

青海湖的初秋,已经很有些寒意。9月的那个下午,天逐渐黑下来,我们一行人一路开车,靠着问路人,一程又一程地向山里摸索。去年采访过的娘娥加家的夏季牧场究竟在不在前方,其实谁都说不准。

山上没有信号,只有逐渐往山里深入,先从那座神山问起,再经过那条河流,再问起村落,最后才能找到相识的牧民打听到朋友的牧场。幸好,熟悉的人越来越多。突然,在一个白色的帐篷门前,看到了正在等待我们的老朋友。

娘娥加一家是青海湖周边一户典型的藏族牧民家庭,还在用传统的方式放牧。他们是我去年拍摄的纪录片《谁的餐桌,谁的牧场》主人公之一。距离拍摄时间过去了一年,我又来到了青海,既想让采访对象们看看成片,也想更进一步了解他们的近况。

草原的夏季快结束的时候,娘娥加一家就搬来了位于草昏(音)的这片集体共用的夏牧场上。这里外人罕至,除了娘娥加三叔住在一两公里外的山腰上,其余人家都在几公里之外,周围几乎看不到人影儿,只能远远望见草场上的白色帐篷。除了牛羊和藏獒,最常见的生物就要数高原鼠兔和白腰雪雀了,还有就是偶尔会在夜间造访的狼。

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◉娘娥加家里的羊群。图片:焦小芳

然而,明信片般的景象之外,草原上的牧民生计却越发艰难。2023年起,我们在青海湖周边做牧民社区影像时,了解到了牛羊价格大幅下跌和进口冻肉冲击牧区市场的情况之后,参与了食通社的联禾计划,想要记录新的市场变化对牧民生活的冲击。去年11月,我和伙伴环绕青海湖一周,完成了拍摄。

青海省虽然不是全国牛羊主产区,却是五大牧区之一,而且是全国牦牛藏羊出栏量最高的省份。环青海湖牧区农牧民收入的一半以上都来自藏羊产业。价格下跌直接影响他们的生计。牧民们回忆,他们已经在牛羊的价格下跌的市场行情中艰难地熬过了四五年。

全国数据也显示,羊肉价格自2021年进入下跌周期,活羊的价格也一路走低。牛价也跌惨了,2024年,国内牛肉价格一度跌到近5年最低,活牛价格更是跌到近10年的最低水平。

冲击之下,已经有牧民熬不过市场低谷,彻底卖掉牛羊退场。

今年,娘娥加一家还没卖羊,准备搬到冬季牧场后等人来交易。他们也了解到价格比去年涨了一些。那么,价格回涨会让牧民们更好过一点吗?我的回访就是在这样一丝丝希望中开始的。

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◉这天,一只小牛犊站不起来了,只能侧卧在草地上,叫声也越来越弱。母牛一直不肯离开,一边吃草,一边隔着大概两米的距离回应着它。直到深夜,母牛依然守护着它,到它身边喂奶。但娘娥加的父亲查看了小牛犊的状况后,已经决定将它送往冬牧场。在那儿,这只小牛犊可以给他们换回一些保险赔偿。图片:焦小芳

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◉第二天凌晨一早,跟小牛犊一起送回冬牧场的,还有只羊。图片:谢小丹

2 切吉西路:买卖博弈

深入牧区之前,我们发现,本地市场的零售肉价也涨了!

在青海西宁一家售卖牧区草原牛羊肉的铺子里:草原牛肉软肉(不含骨的牛肉)31元/斤,牛排(带骨)26元/斤,而羊肉则是32元/斤。去年11月我来拍摄时,本地羊肉只有21、22元/斤。

全国市场的数据也差不多:整个9月,全国牛肉平均价格70.90元/公斤,羊肉69.59元/公斤。但是,对比2023年,牛羊肉依然每公斤跌了10元左右。

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◉从2023年7月至今,全国牛羊肉价格均已大幅下跌|图源:中国畜牧兽医信息网

我走到店里,想问问肉价涨了的原因。店员告诉我,冬天的牛羊是基本上是饲料喂的,而夏季是吃草的。饲养方式会明显影响牛羊肉的口感。一般来说,育肥牛羊屠宰后太肥,腹脂油多,膘厚。对于习惯吃手把肉的当地消费者来说,草膘肉自然要更受欢迎。所以9月的价格本来就贵一点。

离开西宁,正式的回访旅程从142公里外的共和县开始。通向共和县的G6公路两旁就是连绵的草场,公路两旁标注“注意牲畜”,成群的牦牛和藏羊或站或卧于草场之上。共和县是海南州的首府所在地,约定俗成,共和县的切吉西路就成了活羊交易中心,周边牧民都会来此卖羊。

去年,我就是在这条路上偶遇了另一组拍摄对象——马克利的父亲。当时,他就在这条路上和伙伴们等待收羊。收羊人相当于畜牧行业里的“中介”,大多是本地的回族人。牧民们养大的牛羊就是通过他们一步步进入市场,走上餐桌。

夏天草膘季是收羊人一年当中最繁忙的时段之一。我约好了马克利晚上碰面,但他临时爽约了,要到黑水河收账。于是我只好再像去年一样,重返切吉西路碰碰运气。

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◉市场上只来了一只羊,周围的收羊人们谁也不肯买下它。图片:谢小丹

活羊交易一般只在上午进行。这一天,只来了一只羊。五六位收羊人聚在路边,时不时看看手机里牧民发来的牛羊视频,品鉴品鉴,聊聊天。他们不担心生意,这个季节交易一般都在山上进行,年轻人们都去了,可以一次性收上七、八十只甚至上百只羊,牧民们便不再需要来市场了。

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◉给收羊人们放映去年拍摄的纪录片。图片:谢小丹

但他们都对这只羊兴致寥寥。收羊人们说,这羊有问题,问题在脑子里。所以眼神斜视,还斜着走路,无法走直线。

可我怎么看,也看不出这只羊像是有病的样子,更可能的原因是价谈不拢。经验丰富的收羊人可以凭直觉估量出每只羊屠宰后的产肉量,再结合市场价格合理出价。如果出价太高会亏损,出价太低就会被其他买家抢走。

据他们说,这只两岁多的母羊太瘦小,只有20多斤肉。按照今年羊的批发价25元/斤,牦牛27元/斤计算,最高只值得他们出600元。

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◉收羊人们轮番到近旁看羊,又和藏族牧民多番讨价还价。焦小芳在旁拍摄。图片:谢小丹

这只羊的主人是个藏族大哥。他说,羊没病!为了卖掉这只羊,他一早从三、四十岁公里外驾驶微型货车赶来。他要价900元,劝退了几个上前看羊的收羊人。几波收羊人轮番低声和藏族大哥交谈几句之后,都离开了。

一直到12点,守在切吉西路上的收羊人们各自散去了,唯一的羊最终也没找到买家。

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◉藏族大哥抚摸着他未卖掉的羊。图片:焦小芳

3 养羊人困在贷款中

牛羊价格下跌,直接就会让牧民财产缩水。娘娥加的父亲去年曾向我解释,在2019至2020年间,一只被阉割的公羊至少能卖2000元上下,而过去两年里,即使品质最好的羊,价格也不超过1300元。

我在青海海北州金滩乡遇到的牧民王生一行人更是羊价下跌的直接“受害者”。“羊价高的时候我们收羊,收完之后羊价塌了。”收了羊后,他们便被套牢了。 

价格下跌还减少了他们的收入。与此同时,养殖的固定支出和每年的花销都没有减少。我拍摄的牧民都提到了自家草场不够的情况,为了牛羊获得充足的食物,他们或要租用更多草场,或要购买饲料。牛、羊售价不理想时,为了维持收入水平,他们还会加大养殖规模,这就形成了恶性循环。

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◉在青海湖边放牧的牧民们骑着摩托将羊群收回羊圈。图片:焦小芳

入不敷出时,牧民们就想到了借贷,我的拍摄对象们都在举债放羊。我还听说,在我另一位拍摄对象丹增宗支的家乡,有户养了1000只羊和500头牛的人家甚至背负着500-600万的贷款。

去年碰到王生时,他还有25万贷款要还。今年5月,卖掉了小羊羔的王生获得了17万左右的收入,但他每年要为1000亩草场支付5万元,因为草场承载力有限,他还需要额外再购买约8万元的饲料。

剩下几万元的收入,他用来偿还贷款了。到今年我再来时,贷款还剩下20万。每年到了还款日,他只能先向亲戚朋友借钱,等新贷款到账后再归还他们,如此的循环借贷已经持续了7、8年。

按照王生自己的计算方式,他还要至少4年才能把贷款还清。

前提是,现在偷偷放牧的日子还能持续下去。

4 禁牧区的“单身汉联盟”

之所以偷偷放牧,是因为王生村里集体放牧的草场就在青海湖边上。如今,祖辈传下来的草场已经变成了旅游景区,被划为禁牧区。

禁牧之后,3000亩草场一年发放的禁牧补贴大概3.6万元,村里800多人分,一人一年240块,“连件好点的衣服都买不起”。

为了节约草料投入,村里的牧民们打起了游击,偷偷回到草场放牧。若不如此,他们以贷养牧的生活也难以维系。

这群牧民几乎都住在救灾帐篷里,远离家庭。帐篷里的家具很简单:一张床、一个炉子,简单的桌子架子上是生活用品、方便面和饼干。帐篷跟着羊群迁徙。王生在几十公里外的村里有个房子,因为长时间无人居住,早已破败,“哪有钱修”。

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◉王生和他的哥哥一起住在这个蓝色帐篷里。图片:谢小丹

再说,羊群也离不开人。每天早上,王生要把羊赶到草场上去,让他们觅食,傍晚再收回来,每天都要重复放羊、收羊的动作。他还要留心羊群的健康状况,发现病羊了就需要及时买药医治。

今年9月13日,当我来到王生所在位置时,他正在收羊。

羊群就在青海湖边穿过半人高的芨芨草丛中觅食,它们周围的草已经被啃得差不多了。王生必须骑摩托车赶到它们吃草的地方,和村里其他牧民一起,驾驶摩托车冲入羊群,嘴里时不时地还要大声呼喝。羊群受惊后,就会群体四散奔逃。这些牧民们留意着羊群的动向,骑车追赶或阻拦,引导逃散的羊返回各自的羊群。

持续了一个多小时,村里3000多只羊才最终各回各家。

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◉每只羊身上都带着牧民自家的记号,方便他们从羊群里辨认自己的羊。图片:焦小芳

等到深夜,牧民们也终于空闲下来,我才找到时间给几位牧民们一起放映去年拍摄的纪录片。跟娘娥加一家人比起来,他们更像是个单身汉联盟。用他们的话说,是日子太苦,“老婆跑了”。

那天晚上,我再次问起他们,还有没有别的可能性。

“虫草有吗?”在青海的日子里,我已经听说别的牧民靠着挖虫草,还能增加一笔收入。“我们这里连虫草都没有。”

外出打工呢?“一天一百多块钱,(贷款)什么时候能还上?”

电商呢?自己做屠宰、加工,甚至绕过收羊人自己找客户呢?还有别的补贴吗?能想到的办法都被他们否定了。

“那以后怎么办?”我继续问了一句,有些替他们着急。

他们的答案很简单——盼。盼羊价上涨,从今年盼到明年,明年盼后年。

5 出路?

也有人摆脱了贷款的束缚。

去年,我跟着一位回族收羊人,拍摄了一个藏族家庭。年轻的藏族小伙旦增宗支和他的父亲由于草场不足且急需资金,以平均每头4500元的价格卖掉了8头牦牛。这个价格相当低——按照2020年前后的行情,牦牛正常价格在每头6100元左右,最高时能达7000多元。此外,四只羊一共只卖了2300元。他这才连本带息还清2.2万元贷款。

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◉回访是社区影像一个重要的部分,为牧羊人回放纪录片。图片:焦小芳

等我重新回到青海联系旦增宗支时,发现他已经搬到了共和县,用每月190元的价格与妻子和快要三岁的儿子一起租住在一个小房间里。

巧合的是,他现在的住处离交易活羊的切吉西路很近。走出院门,我就能听到附近院子里的羊叫声。

今年价格涨回了点,提到去年卖掉的牛羊,丹增宗支略有些无奈,“那时候价格很不好,但不卖,草又不够,真的是好亏。”

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◉去年的旦增宗支和他的妻子。图源:纪录片《谁的餐桌 谁的牧场》、焦小芳

我很好奇,旦增宗支来共和县靠什么谋生。答案有些让人意外。四处求职碰壁后,他选择了送外卖,每天至少要完成30单。这是20多岁的他第一次离开牧区,来到城里工作。城市的生活常常让他提不起劲来,无论多晚起床都会觉得很累,而在牧区就每天精神奕奕。

“放牧比这个简单太多了。”从自由的牧民到被困在算法中的外卖员,他必须艰难地适应身份的转变。在他眼中,这个职业充满了危险,必须要把车骑得很快才能避免超时。不久前,他才因超时被罚200元,这相当于他两天的收入。危险还来自于偷窃。做了外卖员以后,他丢过餐,这两天还因为疏忽弄丢了自己的手机,只能用妻子的手机继续跑外卖。

他还要尽可能避免送餐时跟态度恶劣的人起冲突。有一次,一位顾客羞辱他“你不就是个送餐的?”气得他把对方的饭都摔了。

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◉旦增宗支在共和县出租屋里观看我去年拍摄的纪录片。图片:焦小芳

我本来计划顺着去年的故事继续拍摄旦增宗支的故事,他很高兴地答应了下来,让我第二天跟拍。结果没想到,第二天早上我按照约定的9点来到出租屋时,却发现他还没有起床。我本能地以为遇上个爱睡懒觉的年轻人。没想到,过了一会,他懒洋洋地走出来,洗了把脸告诉我,昨天晚上临时接到要跑通宵的单子,凌晨6点才回来,现在非常疲惫,不能带我们去拍摄了。

他很想念放牧的生活,“最舒服的在自己家里放牧。但是草场不够用,是一个很大的问题。如果牛羊太少,一家五、六口人又不能指着它过活。无奈就想会不会有别的出路,才会选择来这里工作。”

也许这次找寻出路的尝试最终要以失败告终。他告诉我,过几个月,他就打算回去了,可能重新放牧去。

然而哪怕今年价格涨了一些,市场矛盾并没有根本扭转,譬如进口肉仍大量涌进市场。2025年前三季度,牛羊肉累计进口量仍稳健,其中光牛肉就进口了212.5万吨,同比增长1.0%。

虽然进口肉价格也大幅上涨——牛肉平均到岸价格5225.12美元/吨(约37.88元/公斤),羊肉平均到岸价格3846.16 美元/吨(约27.88元/公斤),同比上涨23.5%。但哪怕经过从口岸到零售的层层加价,仍比60-70元一公斤的本地肉存在明显的价格优势。

于是,全国范围内,牛羊养殖也有退场现象。至2025年前三季度末,全国牛存栏9932万头,同比下降2.4%,环比下降0.6%;全国羊存栏2.9亿只,同比下降6.9%,环比下降3.7%。

牧民们期盼的更好的价格行情,真的会到来吗?

这是食通社第 766篇原创

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食通社

作者

焦小芳

纪录片打工人,用影像探索世界

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食通社

作者

谢小丹

前农业记者,梦想有一小块地自己种

食通社说

当来自遥远国度的、价格低廉的冷冻牛羊肉,大量出现在青海湖周边牧区的市场和餐桌上时,世代以放牧为生的牧民们,他们的生活到底发生了什么改变?

在联禾创作计划支持下,本文作者焦小芳和藏族伙伴琼吾·旦增于2024年带着摄像机,走进了西宁繁忙喧的帐篷和砖房,用镜头真实地记录下这种冲击带来的影响。2025年作者又重回到青海,持续跟踪拍摄和讲述牧民们的故事。

12月19日晚19:40焦小芳和琼吾·旦增导演的纪录片《谁的餐桌 谁的牧场》 将在广州琶洲南TOD 【丰年庆空间】放映,映后焦小芳导演会线上连线进行Q\&A,欢迎来看!

关于联禾创作计划

关于食通社联禾创作计划:为了解当今食物和农业的现状,也为了支持更多的人去探讨食农问题背后的复杂性。食通社携手多家公益和媒体伙伴共同发起2024联禾创作计划,支持媒体创作者和研究者在食农领域开展调研,并资助其完成面向公众的内容创作。

经过6位评委多场面试后,最终选出18个创作项目获得食通社联禾创作计划的支持,其中已发布12篇:

《保洁员阿梅,想好好吃饭 | 打工人餐桌》

《在马来西亚,中国商人只要A级榴莲》

《“假肉”驱逐真肉:牧民,餐桌,亚马逊》

《西瓜保甜,种西瓜保苦》

《从过山瑶到“天选采菇人”,一朵鸡枞菌引发的采菇狂潮》

《马兰在深圳,没有饭搭子》

《儿时的甜蜜为什么消失了?》

《科技、农药与飞手:“技术革命”的另一面》

《谁逼走了菜市场?》

《生鲜电商会让菜市场消失吗?》

《当无人机成为新农具:谁在定义“科学种地”?》

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▶︎2025年,联禾创作计划再度启航,继续支持创作者和研究者去追问食农的背后的问题。我们希望邀请记者、媒体人、研究者、影像工作者一起来寻找问题的答案——无论你关注食农政策、环境、餐饮行业、农村发展、消费文化,还是仅仅对食物的背后感到好奇——都可以参与。

编辑:裴丹

版式:三白

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解放军报:对开历史倒车者迎头痛击

今天(12月13日)是中国第12个南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日,《解放军报》发文强调,须练就能打仗、打胜仗的过硬本领,对开历史倒车的人予以迎头痛击。

中共中央军委机关报《解放军报》星期六在头版发表题为《坚定不移捍卫用鲜血和生命写下的历史》的评论文章称,日军制造的南京大屠杀惨案是第二次世界大战史上“三大惨案”之一,是骇人听闻的反人类罪行。但时至今日,仍有一些日本政客逆世界潮流而动,否认南京大屠杀罪行,企图突破“和平宪法”约束,肆无忌惮扩军备武,大幅提升防卫预算,加速修订安保政策文件,放宽武器出口限制,图谋放弃“无核三原则”,甚至妄想武力介入台海,对地区和平稳定造成严重威胁。

文章指出,“这深刻警示我们,和平需要捍卫,强军才能安邦。我们必须练就能打仗、打胜仗的过硬本领,对开历史倒车的人予以迎头痛击”。

文章写道,“历史就是历史,事实就是事实,任何人都不可能改变历史和事实。付出了巨大牺牲的中国人民,将坚定不移捍卫用鲜血和生命写下的历史。”新时代革命军人须保持高度戒备状态,全面提高备战打仗能力,时刻准备为正义而战、为和平而战、为人民而战,坚决维护国家主权、安全、发展利益。

中国官方星期六上午在南京举行南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭仪式,上午10时01分至10点02分,南京全城鸣响防空警报,汽车、火车、轮船鸣笛致哀。

解放军东部战区同日发布主题海报《大刀·祭》,并配文“高举血祭大刀”、“坚决斩断肮脏头颅”,警示绝不允许军国主义卷土重来。

成都彭州3.9级地震 当地应急局:无人员伤亡报告

中国四川省成都市彭州市星期六(12月13日)发生3.9级地震,多地网民称震感明显。彭州市应急管理局称,没有人员伤亡和财产损失报告。

中国地震台网正式测定,星期六早上6时52分在成都市彭州市发生3.9级地震,震源深度13公里,震中位于北纬31.37度,东经103.81度。

震中距汶川县24公里、距茂县35公里、距绵竹市39公里、距什邡市43公里、距彭州市45公里,距德阳市62公里,距成都市84公里。

四川多地网民反映有震感,“德阳有震感,吓醒了”、“绵竹震感明显”、“睡觉给我晃醒了”。

彭州市应急管理局随后通报称,地震发生后,彭州市应急局第一时间启动地震应急响应,组织全市各镇(街道)摸排受灾情况。经核查,全市无人员伤亡和财产损失报告,全市交通、电力、通信及群众生产生活秩序正常。

美议员要求就特朗普允许对华卖H200做出详细说明

美国众议员穆勒纳尔(John Moolenaar)星期五(12月12日)要求商务部长卢特尼克,针对总统特朗普允许英伟达向中国出售H200晶片的决定,做出详细说明。

据路透社报道,特朗普本周较早前做出上述决定,改变他在第一任期和前总统拜登时期的做法,即不允许中国从美国晶片公司得到最强大的人工智能(AI)硬件。

H200是英伟达现有旗舰晶片的前身,目前仍在美国的人工智能行业中使用。

也是众议院中国问题特别委员会主席的穆勒纳尔,在致函卢特尼克的信件中引述媒体报道称,特朗普的决定至少有一部分是基于华为宣称的晶片性能提升而做出,但这些性能提升是来自空壳公司从台湾和韩国供应商非法采购的晶片。

穆勒纳尔要求卢特尼克明年1月中前,汇报上述H200决定所依据的证据和分析。

白宫和美国商务部尚未对路透社的置评请求作出回应。

Judge’s Order Complicates Justice Dept. Plans to Again Charge Comey

Justice Department officials have been considering whether to bring new charges against James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, after a different judge dismissed the original case against him.

© Monica Jorge for The New York Times

A judge’s order suggested that sloppiness by the Justice Department had helped to sabotage President Trump’s demands to use the criminal justice system to go after James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director.

若美国发动攻击,中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、古巴…… 谁会援助委内瑞拉? - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

13/12/2025 - 00:31

《国际邮报》Courrier international 周五(12月12日)以《纽约时报》分析为本的报道称,自从 2014 年委内瑞拉国内生产总值崩塌后,便失去了其战略重要性。尽管委内瑞拉的盟友:俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和古巴如今也各自深陷危机。然据《纽约时报》的一位记者评估,考虑到委内瑞拉现有的武器库,美国若真要进行军事干预,风险绝不会小。

报道首先写道,古巴保镖、中国雷达、伊朗军舰和俄罗斯导弹:近年来,随着委美关系陷入僵局,委内瑞拉政府花费了数十亿美元扩充军备,并从美国的敌对国家招募人力。

如今,特朗普的威胁言论不断升级,将这些联盟置于考验之下。

过去几个月来,美国向加勒比地区派遣了约 15,000 名士兵及数艘最先进的舰艇,指责尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统“非法”,并称其为“毒品恐怖网络”的首脑。11 月,特朗普更公开把军事部署与马杜罗的总统职位挂钩,告诉记者他“并不是(马杜罗的)粉丝”。

威胁还是外交?

报道续指,美国总统特朗普说:“我们必须处理好委内瑞拉问题。”最近几周,这位美国总统在“即将发动袭击”的威胁与开启外交对话之间摇摆不定。

无论是在华盛顿还是加拉加斯,专家们普遍认为,一旦美国发动进攻,委内瑞拉军队的抵抗力十分有限。多名分析人士及委政府内部消息人士指出,马杜罗的任何盟友都没有足够的能力,也缺乏政治意愿在冲突爆发时大幅提高对加拉加斯的支持,以致真正改变局势。

这些联盟自始至终更多是出于经济利益而非意识形态,尽管在危机时期,它们确实帮助马杜罗及其前任兼导师查韦斯巩固了权力。

几十亿美元的中国贷款让查韦斯政府及其后的马杜罗政府在西方贷款机构纷纷撤出后仍能勉强维持运转。俄罗斯石油贸易商在美国实施严厉经济制裁期间,对维持委内瑞拉的石油出口发挥了关键作用。

伊朗工程师挽救油企基础设施

报道表示,伊朗工程师则帮助委内瑞拉勉强避免了石油业的全面崩溃——而石油业恰恰是这一经济危机最深的震源。同时,数以万计的古巴医生和医疗人员在查韦斯时期频繁爆发的大罢工和抗议浪潮中承担起了当地医疗体系的重任。

但自从委内瑞拉 GDP 于 2014 年开始暴跌以来,该国战略价值急速下降。随着国库空空如也,马杜罗在债权国眼中变得靠不住,又是购买商品和服务的“差客户”。

再加上近期国际局势的动荡,使得这些联盟进一步承压。分析人士指出,古巴、俄罗斯和伊朗政府因自身经济危机或战争而疲惫不堪,无力继续扩张其海外影响力。

马杜罗的许多合作伙伴本身与美国的外交关系就十分紧张,因此他们不太可能冒险为一个处境艰难的盟友牺牲自身国家利益。

莫斯科的被动

报道提及,在马杜罗与俄罗斯总统普京的关系中,这一现实显得尤其明显。尽管克里姆林宫在压力下于上月签署了一份模糊的“合作与战略伙伴协议”,但公开拒绝承诺向这位南美主要盟友提供新的资源。

多名俄罗斯评论员指出,近年来莫斯科在其伊朗及叙利亚盟友遭受袭击时的消极反应,凸显出俄罗斯在国际舞台实力的局限。

10 月 30 日,一架老旧的俄罗斯货机——这类飞机常往返于俄军部署地区——短暂停靠加拉加斯,相关航迹数据可查。但究竟该飞机是否运载武器、增援部队、执行俄制装备维修任务,或仅是制造“低成本支持”的假象,外界不得而知。

类似的军事航班在 2019 年也曾出现,当时马杜罗政权面临最直接的威胁,而那次行动也同样引发诸多猜测。两次事件中,克里姆林宫均保持沉默。

俄罗斯军贸专家鲁斯兰·普霍夫从莫斯科表示:“他们可能是来维修设备或送零件的。但更重要的是,要意识到在这件事上,委内瑞拉是孤立无援的。”

尽管如此,马杜罗的这些联盟仍提高了其继续掌权的机会,让他能接触国际市场与军事技术,即便无法击败美国军队,也足以造成伤亡。

中国:委内瑞拉最大的石油进口国

报道认为,虽然中国拒绝向加拉加斯提供新贷款,但仍保持其对委石油的进口。如今北京是委内瑞拉石油的头号买家,也因此成为其国家财政最重要的收入来源——远远超过其他国家。

尽管自身经济也在崩溃,古巴仍继续在其专业领域——反间谍——向加拉加斯提供协助。

据一位接近委内瑞拉军方的匿名人士透露,自从美国开始在加勒比部署军力后,马杜罗为其贴身警卫队增添了更多古巴保镖,并扩大了嵌入军中的古巴情报官员的职责范围,以减少政变风险。

该消息称,马杜罗及其核心圈子认为古巴特工经验丰富且廉洁不可收买。

委内瑞拉反对派经常号召军官反水以“保全自身”。一些美国高级官员认为,美国此次军事部署或许是一种“心理战”,意在挑起委安全体系内部的分裂。

但多名委政府现任与前任成员坚称,凭借多年应对“异己”的经验,马杜罗仍很可能避免内部裂痕。

据多方接近政府的消息人士透露,在所有军事选项中,白宫可能考虑派遣特种部队试图抓捕或斩首马杜罗。另一个野心更大的策略,是夺取油田或战略基础设施。

古巴特工与俄制 Igla 导弹

多名军事专家和委内瑞拉安全机构前官员警告,考虑到加拉加斯掌握的俄罗斯武器库,这类行动将极可能造成人员伤亡。

美国军方当然会在可能行动前,优先用精确打击摧毁俄制武器系统,例如 S-300 地对空导弹或苏霍伊战机。但他们可能难以完全压制“伊格拉”(Igla)便携式防空导弹——这是全球威力最大的同类武器之一。

马杜罗声称拥有 5,000 枚,并已将其分散给全国各武装部队与盟军民兵。但普霍夫估计,考虑到自然老化与潮湿储存条件,目前能正常作战的可能只有数百枚。然而,这个数量依然足以对低空飞行的飞机或美国特种部队行动需依赖的直升机造成严重威胁。

《国际邮报》这篇报道最后援引这位俄罗斯专家总结说:“美国若发动攻击,很难避免流自己的血。”

美国政府再威胁要对国际刑事法院实施新制裁 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

13/12/2025 - 00:57

12月10日(周三),美国政府再度威胁要对国际刑事法院(CPI)实施新的制裁。美国表示,美国坚决反对一切国际刑事法院针对美国公民或美国盟友的诉讼程序。继过去几个月多名法官受到美国制裁后,三家巴勒斯坦非政府组织也在9月初被美国列入制裁名单。

自从唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来,美国政府接连对国际刑事法院的法官作出制裁:因为国际刑事法院对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和前以色列国防部长加兰特(Yoav Gallant)发出逮捕令,该法院已有8名法官被美国制裁。今年2月和6月,首席检察官及其两名副手被美国列入“毒贩与恐怖分子”名单。美国还制裁了联合国专家弗朗切丝卡·阿尔巴内塞(Francesca Albanese)。

美国还继续施压,扬言可能不再逐一制裁个人,而是制裁整个机构。

此外,9月4日,美国国务卿鲁比奥宣布,对三家“直接参与国际刑事法院非法针对以色列”的巴勒斯坦非政府组织实施制裁。这三家巴勒斯坦非政府组织分别是:Al Haq、Al Mezan和巴勒斯坦人权中心(PCHR)。华盛顿还要求国际刑事法院撤销2024年11月21日针对内塔尼亚胡和加兰特的逮捕令(涉及在加沙犯下的危害人类罪),并要求结束对巴勒斯坦领土上的犯罪行为的调查。

更广泛地说,美国禁止国际刑事法院对任何非国际刑事法院成员国(包括美国和以色列)的公民开展任何诉讼。

New photos from Epstein estate show Trump, Andrew and Bill Clinton

House Oversight Committee US President Donald Trump is pictured with a group of women in a photo released from the House Oversight Committee from the Epstein estateHouse Oversight Committee
US President Donald Trump was among several prominent figures featured in the images released on Friday

More images from the estate of convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein have been released by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee.

The Democrats said the 19 images came from a tranche of 95,000 photos the committee received from Epstein's estate as part of its ongoing investigation.

US President Donald Trump, former Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon are among the high-profile figures featured in the photos. The images, many of which have been seen before, do not imply wrongdoing.

It comes one week before a deadline for the US justice department to release all Epstein-related documents, which are separate from the images shared by the committee on Friday.

Watch: Massie and Garcia on latest photos from Epstein estate

The individuals featured in the images have not yet commented. Many of them have previously denied wrongdoing in relation to Epstein.

In a statement, Representative Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the committee, said: "It is time to end this White House cover-up and bring justice to the survivors of Jeffrey Epstein and his powerful friends."

"These disturbing photos raise even more questions about Epstein and his relationships with some of the most powerful men in the world. We will not rest until the American people get the truth. The Department of Justice must release all the files, NOW" he added.

Republicans, who are in the majority on the committee, have accused Democrats of "cherry-picking photos and making targeted redactions to create a false narrative about President Trump".

The White House called the release a "Democrat hoax" against Trump that has been "repeatedly debunked".

Trump appeared in three of the images released on Friday. One image showed him standing next to a woman whose face has been redacted.

Another showed Trump standing next to Epstein while talking to model Ingrid Seynhaeve at a 1997 Victoria's Secret party in New York – an image that was already publicly available.

House Oversight Committee Trump pictured standing next to Epstein while talking to model Ingrid Seynhaeve at a party in 1997.House Oversight Committee

A third photo showed Trump smiling with several women, whose faces have also been redacted, flanked on either side of him.

An additional photo showed an illustrated likeness of the president on red packets next to a sign that reads: "Trump Condom".

House Oversight Committee Photo showing an illustrated likeness of the president on red packets next to a sign that reads: "Trump Condom".House Oversight Committee
House Oversight Committee One image showed him standing next to a woman whose face has been redacted.House Oversight Committee

Among the images released was what appeared to be cropped photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor next to Bill Gates. A fuller version of the photo, which was available on photo agency Getty Images, showed King Charles, the then-Prince of Wales, on the right side of the photo.

The Getty Images' caption said the picture was taken during a summit during the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in London in April 2018.

Getty Images Prince Andrew Mountbatten next to Bill GatesGetty Images

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was also pictured in some of the images. He was shown speaking with Epstein at a desk, and in another, standing beside him in front of a mirror.

House Oversight Committee Bannon pictured at a desk speaking with Epstein. House Oversight Committee

A third image showed him speaking with filmmaker Woody Allen.

A photo featuring former US President Bill Clinton's showed him standing next to Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 for her role in facilitating the disgraced financier's abuse.

Two other people the BBC has yet to identify are also in the image, which appeared to have been signed by Clinton.

Clinton has denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein. In 2019, a spokesperson said he "knows nothing about the terrible crimes" Epstein pleaded guilty to.

Other prominent figures which appear in the images include US economist Larry Summers, lawyer Alan Dershowitz and entrepreneur Richard Branson. Not all the images show those individuals in the company of Epstein.

Epstein was charged with sex trafficking in July 2019. He died in prison a month later while awaiting trail.

The president was a friend of Epstein's, but has said they fell out in the early 2000s, years before he was first arrested.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein.

The justice department is required to release investigative material related to Epstein by 19 December under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which was signed into law by Trump last month.

Thailand-Cambodia fighting continues after Trump says countries agree to ceasefire

AFP via Getty Images Soldiers stop for a rest during clashes along the Cambodia-Thailand border in Cambodia's Siem Reap province on December 10, 2025AFP via Getty Images
Trump had already announced a deal to stop the fighting between the neighbours

US President Donald Trump has said the prime ministers of Thailand and Cambodia will halt fighting "effective this evening".

Trump made the announcement after telephone conversations with the two leaders following deadly border clashes in recent days which have left at least 20 people dead and half a million displaced.

Neither Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul nor his Cambodian counterpart Hun Manet has commented.

However, after his call with Trump earlier, Charnvirakul told a news conference that a ceasefire would only come about if "Cambodia will cease fire, withdraw its troops, remove all landmines it has planted".

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said both leaders "have agreed to CEASE all shooting effective this evening, and go back to the original Peace Accord made with me.

"Both Countries are ready for PEACE and continued Trade with the United States of America."

The long-standing border dispute escalated on 24 July, as Cambodia launched a barrage of rockets into Thailand, which responded with air strikes.

After days of intense fighting which left dozens dead, the neighbouring South East Asian countries agreed to an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" brokered by Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Since then, tensions continued to build.

This week, violence expanded into at least six provinces in north-eastern Thailand and five provinces in Cambodia's north and north-west.

The two countries have been been contesting territorial sovereignty along their 800km land border for more than a century, since the borders of the two nations were drawn after the French occupation of Cambodia.

Ukraine's health supplies hit in series of Russian strikes on medical warehouses

DSNS Ukraine A firefighter tackles a fire in DniproDSNS Ukraine
More than $100m worth of medicines were destroyed in a fire caused by a Russian drone strike on Dnipro

Warehouses supplying the vast majority of Ukraine's pharmacies have been destroyed in a series of Russian attacks over recent months.

Medical supplies worth about $200m (£145m) were destroyed in just two strikes in December and October.

A large warehouse storing medicines in the city of Dnipro was destroyed in a Russian air strike on 6 December. As a result, about $110m worth of medicines were destroyed - estimated at up to 30% of Ukraine's monthly supply.

"It was a missile and drone strike against our facility. The missiles flew past, but the drones hit it," said Dmytro Babenko, acting director-general of pharmaceutical distributor BADM.

"They caused a fire which unfortunately proved impossible to contain and the whole facility was destroyed."

BADM is one of two companies that supply about 85% of Ukrainian pharmacies in roughly equal shares.

The other company is Optima Pharm, whose warehouses have been hit three times this year - on 28 August, 25 October and 15 November.

The October attack destroyed its main storage facility in Kyiv, and cost the company more than $100m, says Optima Pharm's chief financial officer Artem Suprun.

Russia denies hitting civilian targets, but when the Optima Pharm warehouse was hit in October, the defence ministry in Moscow said only that it had targeted a factory producing drones.

On the day BADM's warehouse was destroyed, Russia said it had hit "a warehouse storing military equipment" as well as energy and transport infrastructure.

DSNS Ukraine A firefighter puts out a smoky fire at a large grey warehouseDSNS Ukraine
Optima Pharm lost more than $100m in a Russian attack on its main warehouse

Such attacks significantly complicate the treatment of sick and wounded in Ukraine, after almost four years of Russia's full-scale war.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC), an NGO that had been using the warehouse in Dnipro, says it lost $195,000 worth of medication and supplies, which could have served 30,000 people in need.

"When I arrived at the site I was devastated, the scene was simply awful. All of this medicine could have served people for years, and in a single moment it was all lost," says the IRC's Andriy Moskalenko.

The IRC said the Dnipro facility had served "as a critical hub for hospitals, healthcare providers, pharmacies and humanitarian actors".

Mr Babenko from BADM said the Russian attack had destroyed "vitally important medicines" that had been imported and are not produced in Ukraine.

"It's a pretty complicated situation," he told the BBC.

But he is hopeful that the attack will not leave Ukrainians without medicines.

"There won't be significant shortages, possibly only of certain types of goods. We're hoping to restore all supplies in a month or a month-and-a-half," Mr Babenko said.

Ukrainian authorities accuse Russia of deliberately targeting hospitals, ambulances, medics and rescue workers, claims Moscow has denied.

According to the government in Kyiv, more than 2,500 medical institutions have been damaged or destroyed, and more than 500 civilian doctors, nurses and other medical workers killed.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization said it had recorded 2,763 attacks on Ukraine's healthcare system since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, and it said that in 2025 there had been a 12% increase in attacks from the previous year.

Trump's 'historic' peace deal for DR Congo shattered after rebels seize key city

AFP via Getty Images A head and shoulders image of Congolese refugee Akilimali Mirindi after arriving at a refugee camp in Rwanda. She is wearing a yellow and green patterned dress. AFP via Getty Images
Akilimali Mirindi is one of thousands who have fled the recent upsurge in fighting

The US ambassador to the UN has accused Rwanda of leading Africa's Great Lakes region toward war, just over a week after a peace deal was signed in Washington to end the decades-long conflict.

US President Donald Trump Trump hailed the deal between DR Congo's President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame as "historic" and "a great day for Africa, great day for the world".

But the M23 rebel group says it has "fully liberated" the key city of Uvira in an offensive the US and European powers say is backed by Rwanda. UN experts have previously accused it of having "de facto control" of the rebel force's operations.

Rwanda denies the allegations, however, its presence in Washington was a tacit acknowledgment of its influence over the M23.

The rebels were not signatories to Trump's deal - and have been taking part in a parallel peace process led by Qatar, a US ally.

The latest fighting risks further escalating an already deeply complex conflict.

Why did the M23 seize Uvira now?

Prof Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist who specialises in the region, told the BBC that the view in M23 circles was that "they need more leverage in the negotiations", while the feeling in the Rwandan government is that Tshisekedi cannot be trusted.

He added that the assault on Uvira, in South Kivu province, "flies in the face of all the negotiations that are under way".

"It appears to humiliate the US government. I'm not sure what strategic purpose that would serve," Prof Stearns told the BBC.

The M23's new offensive in South Kivu started a few days before Kagame and Tshisekedi flew to Washington last week to ratify the agreement first hammered out in June.

Bram Verelst, a Burundi-based researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) think-tank, said the assault appeared to be an attempt to force Burundi to withdraw the troops it had in eastern DR Congo backing the army against the rebel forces and Rwanda.

A map of eastern DR Congo, showing the area of operations of the M23 and its allies, along with Goma, Bukavu, Uvira, Bujumbura, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda

He pointed out that Uvira - which lies just 27km (17 miles) from Burundi's capital, Bujumbura, on the northern tip of Lake Tanganyika - was of strategic importance because of the presence of at least 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu.

"Uvira is Burundi's gateway into eastern DR Congo, to send troops and supplies. That has now been cut off," Mr Verelst told the BBC.

"It seems that many Burundian troops are withdrawing, but it's not clear if all contingents will retreat," he added.

Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that Uvira, which had a population of about 700,000, was the DR Congo government's last major foothold and military hub in South Kivu.

He added that the M23 was now likely to establish a parallel administration in the city, and use its military gains "as a bargaining chip in peace talks".

As for the DR Congo government, it has not acknowledged its latest military setback, but says that the "gravity of the situation is compounded by the now proven risk of regional conflagration".

What does it mean for Burundi?

Burundi has been a natural ally of DR Congo for years because of its enmity with Rwanda.

Both accuse the other of backing rebel groups seeking to overthrow their respective governments.

The neighbours share a similar language and ethnic make-up - with Tutsi and Hutu communities often vying for power - and both have suffered terrible ethnic-based massacres.

But unlike Rwanda, which is headed by a Tutsi president, the majority Hutus are in power in Burundi.

Burundi's government fears that if the M23 cements its presence in South Kivu, it would strengthen a Burundian rebel group called Red Tabara.

Based in South Kivu, it is mainly made up of Tutsis - and has attacked Burundi in the past.

In an apparent attempt to placate Burundi's fears, the M23 said it had "no sights beyond our national borders".

"Our fight has the objective of peace, the protection of the population, the rebuilding of the state in DR Congo, as well as the stability of the Great Lakes region," the group added.

Burundi has shut its border with DR Congo, but, according to Mr Verelst, it is still allowing people to cross into its territory after carrying out security checks.

Aid agencies say that about 50,000 people have fled into Burundi in the past week.

Burundian troops - along with the Congolese army and allied militias - fought to block the rebel advance towards Uvira, but the city itself fell "without much fighting", Mr Verelst said.

The fall of Uvira would hit Burundi's already struggling economy as the country has been suffering from a severe shortage of foreign currency and fuel, and had been heavily dependent on eastern DR Congo for both, he said.

How did the M23 manage to capture Uvira?

The M23 began a major advance earlier this year when it captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, on the border with Rwanda.

At the time, South African troops were deployed to help DR Congo's army, but they were forced to withdraw after the M23 seized the city in January.

Shortly afterwards the rebels captured the next big city in eastern DR Congo, Bukavu, capital of South Kivu.

The move on Uvira came after the rebels broke the defence lines of the DR Congo army, militias allied with it and Burundian troops.

Prof Stearns said the M23 was estimated to have more than 10,000 fighters, but there was likely to have been an "influx" of Rwandan troops for the recent offensive to capture Uvira.

"The reason why they are able to defeat their enemy is that the Rwandan army, at least, is very disciplined, and I think discipline matters more than manpower," he said.

"The conflict in recent days has also featured the extensive use of drone technology on both sides but the Rwandans have used this more to their advantage than the Congolese," he added.

Where does this leave the peace process?

It appears to be in deep trouble.

The US ambassador to the UN blamed Rwanda for the recent fighting.

"Instead of progress toward peace, as we have seen under President Trump's leadership in recent weeks, Rwanda is leading the region toward more instability and toward war," Mike Waltz told a Security Council meeting.

An earlier statement - issued by the US, European Union, and eight European governments - went further, saying that both the M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) should immediately halt "offensive operations", and Rwandan troops should withdraw from eastern DR Congo.

Prof Stearns said the policy experts he had spoken to were "baffled" by the timing of the move to capture Uvira.

"It was literally as they were signing a peace deal in Washington that Rwandan troops were amassing, and then invaded the area around Kamanyola, which is across the border from Rwanda, and then advanced on Uvira," he added.

Watch: Leaders of Rwanda and DR of Congo sign peace deal alongside Donald Trump

Rwanda's foreign ministry has not responded to the claims that its troops were in South Kivu, but said the ceasefire violations and fighting could not be "attributed" to Rwanda.

It accused the DR Congo and Burundian armies of bombing villages near the Rwandan border, and said Burundi had "amassed" nearly 20,000 troops in South Kivu in support of DR Congo's army.

It added that it was now clear that DR Congo was "never ready to commit to peace", and even though Tshisekedi had attended the ceremony in Washington, it was "as if he had been forced to sign" the peace accord.

The DR Congo's government levelled a similar accusation against Kagame, saying he had made a "deliberate choice" to abandon the Washington Accord, and to undermine Trump's efforts to end the conflict.

Can the deal be salvaged?

Prof Stearns said the US-led peace process was now on a "troubled path, perhaps it is stuck".

He pointed out that the success of the deal hinged on DR Congo's army launching an operation to disarm the FDLR militia group, members of which were involved in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, and which Kagame's government sees as a continued threat.

But, Prof Stearns said, he could not see DR Congo's army launching such an operation at the moment.

The peace deal also envisaged economic co-operation between DR Congo and Rwanda, including on hydro-electric power, mining and infrastructure development - something that the US hopes would pave the way for American companies to increase investments in the mineral-rich region.

Prof Stearns said he could not see this happening either while Rwandan troops remained in eastern DR Congo, and fighting continued.

He added that his understanding was that the parallel peace process in Doha - led by Qatar's government to broker a peace deal between the M23 and DR Congo's government - was also on hold at the moment.

"It's very difficult to imagine the Congolese returning there right now after there has been this major offensive by the M23," he added.

What are Tshisekedi's options?

Prof Stearns said that Tshisekedi was under "very serious" pressure from the public for his failure to keep his numerous promises to bring an end to the fighting in the east.

He said Tshisekedi might also be under pressure from parts of the army, with whom he had a strained relationship after the arrest of generals for alleged corruption and because of the setbacks in the east.

He added that Tshisekedi was banking on the US to put pressure on Rwanda to withdraw its support for the M23.

"It's going to be very difficult for the Congolese army to muster a response.

"It's now in the hands of the various peace brokers, the US in particular, and perhaps Qatar and other donors," the academic said.

"It's to be seen how much they care about ending this conflict, and how much political capital they are willing to spend."

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From booze to black belts: Virginia's drunk raccoon suspected in karate shop break-in

Watch: Raccoon breaks into US liquor store and gets drunk

A raccoon that broke into a Virginia store and joyfully drank its way through the liquor aisle is now suspected of a wider crime spree, officials say.

A Hanover animal control officer suspects the stripe-tailed mammal also broke into a nearby karate studio and then raided the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) for snacks.

"Supposedly, this is the third break-in he's had," said Officer Samantha Martin.

The raccoon, now nicknamed the "trashed panda", was first discovered passed out in the bathroom of the Ashland liquor store two days after Thanksgiving. After sobering up, the unlikely outlaw was released back into the wild.

A new study found the masked mammals known for rummaging rubbish bins for easy food, are evolving and getting comfortable around humans.

Ms Martin says it's only a matter of time before the masked bandit strikes the shopping centre again.

"This is not the first time he's been in one of the buildings," she told the county government's official podcast, Hear in Hanover, on Thursday.

"He was in the karate studio. I think he got into the DMV [and] ate some of their snacks one time," she said.

She later added that there is a chance the earlier break-ins could have been perpetrated by a different raccoon - but officials have identified him as their prime suspect.

Raccoons are known for breaking into peoples garbage cans, leading to the nickname "trash panda".

The county has been selling shirts with the logo "trashed panda" and has raised a whopping $207,000 (£155,000) as of Friday. The money will be used to renovate the shelter, and add to its capacity, Ms Martin said.

Officials say the little Kung Fu trash panda was living his best life when he was detained in the liquor store and kept his spirits up even after being placed in the county kennel.

"I just set him in there, [and] let him kinda relax for a few hours. The sun was beating on him so he was feeling good," Ms Martin said, adding that he was released about one mile away from the shopping complex. "He didn't do anything wrong. He was just having a good time."

The story has gone viral, which Ms Martin says is because it is so "relatable".

"Everybody's been there," she says. "Everybody's had a few extra and passed out by the toilet, and hopes somebody can come get you the next morning."

"I hope he learned his lesson," she said, before adding that there's a good chance he might be found committing another heist soon.

"He'll be back. He's not a dummy."

北京网信办关闭劣迹网红变相复出账号

北京网信办查处一批网络名人账号,包括“东北雨姐”“猫一杯”等转世复出账号;在主账号禁言期间,用备用号发文的,也被禁言。

北京市互联网信息办公室微信公众号“网信北京”星期五(12月12日)通报,北京市网信办启动“清朗京华·网络名人账号乱象整治”专项行动,指导网站平台重点整治煽动群体对立、宣扬不良价值观、扰乱网络生态、违规账号变相复出、逃避税收监管等突出问题。

通报就每种情况提出典型案例。例如,煽动群体对立的抖音账号“郭胜涛”(粉丝数73.1万)在直播中以消费习惯、身份背景等为依据制造阶层对立,煽动对立情绪,相关账号已被依法依约予以限期封禁直播权限。百度百家号“李茗传”(粉丝数69.1万)贩卖恐慌焦虑情绪,宣扬消极价值观等。

通报显示,一批违规账号变相复出后被关闭。其中,抖音账号“雨(记录生活)”(粉丝数7.2万)、“大东北(记录生活)”(粉丝数28.9万),经核实为劣迹网红“东北雨姐”转世账号;“碎嘴撸米”(粉丝数72.3万)经核实为劣迹网红“猫一杯”转世账号,相关账号已被依法依约予以关闭。

此外,账号被禁期间借由备用号发文,也受到管制。通报称,微博账号“陈震同学”(粉丝数1013万)在禁言期间,通过账号“陈震同学的同学”(粉丝数29.8万)发布信息,相关账号已被依法依约予以禁言。

报告:华为新手机搭载中芯七纳米晶片

加拿大研究机构TechInsights表示,华为技术有限公司最新旗舰手机Mate 80系列所搭载的麒麟9030晶片,由中国最大晶圆代工厂中芯国际采用改进版的7纳米工艺制造,但在制程水平上仍落后于台积电和三星。

据路透社,TechInsights在星期一(12月8日)发布的报告中称,麒麟9030采用的是中芯国际的N+3工艺,这是其此前七纳米(N+2)节点的“缩小延伸版”。报告指出,从绝对水平来看,N+3在制程缩小程度上,仍明显落后于台积电和三星的五纳米制程。

华为公司在11月底发布了新一代Mate80系列手机,其中专业版 Mate80 Pro系列搭配的是麒麟9030 Pro处理器,普通版Mate80则是麒麟9020晶片。

今年10月,中国商务部将TechInsights公司及分支机构列入不可靠清单。该机构此前持续发布有关华为和中芯国际芯片进展的研究报告。

中国举行南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭仪式

今天(12月13日)是中国南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日,中国为死难者举行公祭仪式。

综合央视新闻和新华社报道,南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭仪式在星期六早上举行,警报声响彻南京上空。

早上10时01分至10点02分,南京全城鸣响防空警报,汽车、火车、轮船鸣笛致哀。

江苏全省抗战类爱国主义教育基地、南京市17处南京大屠杀遇难同胞丛葬地及12个社区,全国抗战类纪念(博物)馆等将同步举行悼念活动。

此外,侵华日军南京大屠杀遇难同胞纪念馆内,也将举行“世界和平法会”“烛光祭·国际和平集会”等活动。

US scolds Rwanda for breaking peace deal as M23 rebels seize key Congo city

M23 rebel fighters at a border crossing point in Rwanda

The US has accused Rwanda of violating a US-brokered peace agreement by backing a deadly new rebel offensive in the mineral-rich eastern Congo, and warned action will be taken against “spoilers”.

The remarks by the US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, came as more than 400 civilians have been killed since the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels escalated their offensive in eastern Congo’s South Kivu province, according to officials who also say Rwandan special forces were in the strategic city of Uvira.

Waltz on Friday told the UN security council that the US was “profoundly concerned and incredibly disappointed with the renewed outbreak of violence” by M23.

“Rwanda is leading the region towards increased instability and war,” Waltz warned. “We will use the tools at our disposal to hold to account spoilers to peace.”

He called on Rwanda to respect Congo’s right to defend its territory and invite friendly forces from neighbouring Burundi to fight alongside Congolese forces. He also said the US was engaging with all sides “to urge restraint and to avoid further escalation”.

The rebels’ latest offensive comes despite a US-mediated peace agreement signed last week by the Congolese and Rwandan presidents in Washington.

The accord didn’t include the rebel group, which is negotiating separately with Congo and agreed earlier this year to a ceasefire that both sides accuse the other of violating. However, it obliges Rwanda to halt support for armed groups such as M23 and work to end hostilities.

The rebels’ advance pushed the conflict to the doorstep of neighbouring Burundi, which has maintained troops in eastern Congo for years, heightening fears of a broader regional spillover.

Congo’s ministry of communication confirmed in a statement on Friday that M23 had seized the strategic port city of Uvira in eastern Congo, on the northern tip of Lake Tanganyika and directly across from Burundi’s largest city, Bujumbura.

Uvira was Congo’s government’s last major foothold in South Kivu after the provincial capital, Bukavu, fell to the rebels in February. Its capture allows the rebels to consolidate a broad corridor of influence across the east.

M23 said it had taken control of Uvira on Wednesday afternoon, after a rapid offensive since the start of the month. Along with the more than 400 killed, about 200,000 have been displaced, regional officials say.

Civilians fleeing eastern Congo have also crossed into Burundi, and there have been reports of shells falling in the town of Rugombo, on the Burundian side of the border, raising concerns about the conflict spilling over into Burundian territory.

More than 100 armed groups are vying for a foothold in mineral-rich eastern Congo, near the border with Rwanda, most prominently M23. The conflict has created one of the world’s most significant humanitarian crises, with more than 7 million people displaced, according to the UN agency for refugees.

Congo, the US and UN experts accuse Rwanda of backing M23, which has grown from hundreds of members in 2021 to about 6,500 fighters, according to the UN.

Waltz said Rwandan forces had provided “logistics and training support to M23” and were fighting alongside the rebels in eastern Congo, with “roughly 5,000 to 7,000 troops as of early December”.

Congo’s foreign minister, Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, accused Rwanda of trampling on the peace agreement, which she described as bringing “hope of a historic turning point”.

She urged the security council to impose sanctions against military and political leaders responsible for the attacks, ban mineral exports from Rwanda and prohibit it from contributing troops to UN peacekeeping missions.

Rwanda is one of the largest contributors of UN peacekeepers, with nearly 6,000 Rwandan troops.

Eastern Congo, rich in critical minerals, has been of interest to Trump as Washington looks for ways to circumvent China to acquire rare earths, essential to manufacturing fighter jets, mobile phones and more.

Ukraine's health supplies hit in series of Russian strikes on medical warehouses

DSNS Ukraine A firefighter tackles a fire in DniproDSNS Ukraine
More than $100m worth of medicines were destroyed in a fire caused by a Russian drone strike on Dnipro

Warehouses supplying the vast majority of Ukraine's pharmacies have been destroyed in a series of Russian attacks over recent months.

Medical supplies worth about $200m (£145m) were destroyed in just two strikes in December and October.

A large warehouse storing medicines in the city of Dnipro was destroyed in a Russian air strike on 6 December. As a result, about $110m worth of medicines were destroyed - estimated at up to 30% of Ukraine's monthly supply.

"It was a missile and drone strike against our facility. The missiles flew past, but the drones hit it," said Dmytro Babenko, acting director-general of pharmaceutical distributor BADM.

"They caused a fire which unfortunately proved impossible to contain and the whole facility was destroyed."

BADM is one of two companies that supply about 85% of Ukrainian pharmacies in roughly equal shares.

The other company is Optima Pharm, whose warehouses have been hit three times this year - on 28 August, 25 October and 15 November.

The October attack destroyed its main storage facility in Kyiv, and cost the company more than $100m, says Optima Pharm's chief financial officer Artem Suprun.

Russia denies hitting civilian targets, but when the Optima Pharm warehouse was hit in October, the defence ministry in Moscow said only that it had targeted a factory producing drones.

On the day BADM's warehouse was destroyed, Russia said it had hit "a warehouse storing military equipment" as well as energy and transport infrastructure.

DSNS Ukraine A firefighter puts out a smoky fire at a large grey warehouseDSNS Ukraine
Optima Pharm lost more than $100m in a Russian attack on its main warehouse

Such attacks significantly complicate the treatment of sick and wounded in Ukraine, after almost four years of Russia's full-scale war.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC), an NGO that had been using the warehouse in Dnipro, says it lost $195,000 worth of medication and supplies, which could have served 30,000 people in need.

"When I arrived at the site I was devastated, the scene was simply awful. All of this medicine could have served people for years, and in a single moment it was all lost," says the IRC's Andriy Moskalenko.

The IRC said the Dnipro facility had served "as a critical hub for hospitals, healthcare providers, pharmacies and humanitarian actors".

Mr Babenko from BADM said the Russian attack had destroyed "vitally important medicines" that had been imported and are not produced in Ukraine.

"It's a pretty complicated situation," he told the BBC.

But he is hopeful that the attack will not leave Ukrainians without medicines.

"There won't be significant shortages, possibly only of certain types of goods. We're hoping to restore all supplies in a month or a month-and-a-half," Mr Babenko said.

Ukrainian authorities accuse Russia of deliberately targeting hospitals, ambulances, medics and rescue workers, claims Moscow has denied.

According to the government in Kyiv, more than 2,500 medical institutions have been damaged or destroyed, and more than 500 civilian doctors, nurses and other medical workers killed.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization said it had recorded 2,763 attacks on Ukraine's healthcare system since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, and it said that in 2025 there had been a 12% increase in attacks from the previous year.

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