House lawmakers released more than 20,000 pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein on Wednesday — and they include communications between the convicted sex offender and high-profile individuals in politics, media, Hollywood and foreign affairs.

One email shows Epstein communicating with a former White House counsel. Some showed offensive emails between Epstein and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. Another offers insight into Epstein’s offer to help Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon.

The documents, a small batch released by Democrats and a larger one released by Republicans, also shed light on the disgraced financier’s private musings about Trump and to what extent Trump may have known about his criminal conduct.

The Trump administration pushed back on allegations of wrongdoing Wednesday, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt alleging Democrats “selectively leaked emails to the liberal media to create a fake narrative to smear President Trump.” Trump, in a social media post, also accused Democrats of “trying to bring up the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax again because they’ll do anything at all to deflect on how badly they’ve done on the Shutdown, and so many other subjects.”

Here are some of the most stunning revelations from the latest trove of documents.

Epstein and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers

Epstein’s inbox features several appearances by Larry Summers, a prominent economist who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

In one exchange, Summers shares snippets from a 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia, including a quip that the “general view” among Saudi officials was that “Donald is a clown, increasingly dangerous on foreign policy.”

In another email, Summers remarks that “I observed that half of the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population.”

“I’m trying to figure why American elite think if u murder your baby by beating and abandonment it must be irrelevant to your admission to Harvard, but hit on a few women 10 years ago and can’t work at a network or think tank,” Summers added before directing Epstein: “DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT.”

Summers has attracted scrutiny for his rhetoric about women in the past, including a 2005 speech in which he cited a controversial theory that has been used to suppose that men are more prone to extremely high or low IQs than women as one reason women are underrepresented in science and engineering. The backlash generated by the speech contributed to Summers’ decision to step down as president of Harvard University in 2006.

A representative for Summers did not respond to a request for comment about the exchange.

Michael Wolff’s advice

In a series of emails dating back 10 years, Epstein discussed his predicament and his ties to Trump with author and journalist Michael Wolff.

Wolff on several occasions offered advice to Epstein regarding how he might best publicly navigate his relationship with Trump, who at the time was in the midst of his 2016 presidential campaign

In a 2015 email, Wolff offers advice on what to do if Trump was asked about his relationship with Epstein. Specifically, Epstein asked Wolff how Trump would respond to such a question.

“I think you should let him hang himself,” Wolff wrote of Trump in a 2015 email. “If [Trump] says he hasn’t been on the plane or to the house, then that gives you a valuable PR and political currency.”

In a 2019 email to Wolff, Epstein wrote that “Trump said he asked me to resign, never a member ever. [O]f course he knew about the girls as he asked ghislaine to stop.”

The message appears to reference Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and Ghislaine Maxwell, a convicted Epstein co-conspirator currently serving a 20-year prison sentence for crimes connected to Epstein.

The following year, Epstein and several associates received word that Reuters was readying a story about a lawsuit filed against the disgraced financier and Trump over an alleged sexual assault from 1994.

“Well, I guess if there's anybody who can wave thus [sic] away, it's Donald," Wolff wrote. "Let me know if there's anything I can do."

Wolff’s attorney did not respond to a request for comment.

Epstein and former White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler

Epstein’s inbox also features repeated appearances by another member of the Obama administration: former White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler.

In a 2018 exchange, Ruemmler — then a partner at law firm Latham & Watkins — discusses the criminal case against former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, who admitted to conspiring with Trump to pay porn star Stormy Daniels hush money during a New York criminal investigation.

In one of the messages, Epstein exclaims: “you see, i know how dirty donald is. my guess is that non lawyers ny biz people have no idea. what it means to have your fixer flip.”

In a separate exchange, Ruemmler shared her apparent disdain for the people of New Jersey during an email about a planned road trip to New York.

“Think I am going to drive,” she wrote. “I will then stop to pee and get gas at a rest stop on the New Jersey turnpike, will observe all of the people there who are at least 100 pounds overweight, will have a mild panic attack as a result of the observation, and will then decide that I am not eating another bite of food for the rest of my life out of fear that I will end up like one of these people.”

Ruemmler did not respond to a request for comment. She is now the chief legal officer at Goldman Sachs, which declined to comment.

Epstein and Peter Thiel

In one 2018 exchange, Epstein asks PayPal founder Peter Thiel — an ally of Vice President JD Vance — if he was enjoying Los Angeles. Epstein also complimented Thiel on his “trump exaggerations, not lies.”

“Can’t complain thus far…,” Thiel answered, to which Epstein replied, “Dec visit me Caribbean."

Epstein’s private island near St. Thomas in the Caribbean has long been the subject of speculation about which possible conspirators may have visited the island, which Epstein allegedly used to conceal his criminal behavior.

A spokesperson for Thiel said he never visited the island.

Epstein and Steve Bannon

In several of Epstein’s exchanges with business associates and friends, he boasts of his relationships to powerful figures in media, technology and foreign affairs.

In a 2018 exchange with Bannon, Epstein says “there are many leaders of countries we can organize for you to have one on ones” with if Bannon agreed to spend eight to 10 days in Europe.

“If you are going to play here, you’ll have to spend time, europe by remote doesn’t work,” Epstein wrote.

A representative for Bannon declined to comment.

Epstein and the Kremlin

Epstein apparently leaned on his foreign policy connections in at least one instance: in the lead-up to Trump’s 2018 bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Epstein suggested that Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s longtime foreign minister, seek his insights on Trump.

“I think you might suggest to putin that lavrov can get insight on talking to me,” Epstein wrote in an email to Thorbjorn Jagland, a former prime minister of Norway who was leading the Council of Europe at the time.

During the exchange, Epstein said he had already spoken with Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, about Trump before Churkin died in 2017.

“Churkin was great,” Epstein wrote. “He understood trump after our conversations. it is not complex. he must be seen to get something its that simple.”

The Russian embassy did not respond to a request for comment.

Epstein and celebrities

The rotating cast of characters Epstein turned to for advice apparently also included the family of disgraced filmmaker Woody Allen.

In one email, Epstein shared a news article about James Woolsey, who led the CIA during the Clinton administration, joining Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign as an adviser with Soon-Yi Previn — Allen’s wife and the adopted daughter of actress Mia Farrow, whom Allen had a relationship with.

Previn replied that “Woody said it didn’t mean anything.”

Previn and Allen could not be reached for comment about the exchange.

Epstein and a well-known publicist

In 2011, Epstein wrote to Peggy Siegal, a prominent publicist who has worked in elite New York and Hollywood circles, with an ask: Could she reach out to media mogul Ariana Huffington to enlist her help in clearing his name?

In the exchange, Epstein and Siegal discuss “the girl who accused Prince Andrew” — an apparent reference to the late Virginia Giuffre, one of Epstein’s most prominent accusers who sued Prince Andrew in 2021 alleging he sexually assaulted her on several occasions. The prince was stripped of his titles and is now identified as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. He has long denied any accusations of sexual wrongdoing.

In one message, Epstein writes that Huffington — the co-founder of the Huffington Post, now HuffPost — “should champion the dangers of false allegations” and “send a reporter or reporters to investigate” Giuffre.

Epstein wrote of the idea: “the palace would love it, the girl in the photo, was nothing more than a telephone answerer,, she was never 15, according to her version she worked for trump, first at that age, at MAra lago.”

Siegal offered to send the message to Huffington on her own behalf if Epstein fixed the grammar in his message, although Huffington, who left HuffPost in 2016, told POLITICO she "was never contacted and never sent a reporter."

“It was a moronic request, and he constantly tried to embroil innocent people into the fantasy of his life," Siegal told POLITICO. "It’s beyond comprehension that I would call Arianna and get involved in this."

A spokesperson for HuffPost also said that "After reaching out to current and former staff, to the best of our knowledge, no talk of this coverage ever made it to HuffPost."

Epstein and controversial artist Andres Serrano

While several of the emails released Wednesday call attention to Epstein’s apparent ties to Trump, in one conversation, he appears to express doubt about supporting the then-candidate’s presidential campaign.

In the exchange from October 2016, Epstein discusses the election with artist Andres Serrano, whose controversial 1987 photograph “Piss Christ” — depicting a crucifix submerged in urine — attracted widespread condemnation.

Epstein wrote to Serrano that there was “no good choice” in the election, to which Serrano replied “I was prepared to vote against Trump for all the right reasons but I'm so disgusted by the outrage over ‘grab them by the pussy’ that I may give him my sympathy vote.” Serrano was referencing the widely known Access Hollywood tape of Trump bragging about sexually abusing women.

“I'm sure Bill C said things, too,” Serrano added, in an apparent reference to former President Bill Clinton.

Serrano did not respond to a request for comment about the emails. Clinton has previously denied having a close relationship with Epstein and through spokespeople said he had no knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.

Gregory Svirnovskiy, Cheyanne M. Daniels, Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Erica Orden contributed to this report.

CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to reflect that Mia Farrow and Woody Allen were not officially married.

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© Niklas Halle'n/AFP via Getty Images

Behind closed doors on Wednesday, a Nevada Democrat implored her House colleagues to “stop pissing on each other and start pissing on” Republicans over the shutdown deal, according to two people familiar with her remarks.

They weren’t all listening.

While battleground lawmaker Susie Lee was making her case for a united Democratic front, clips of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) bashing Senate Democrats who supported ending the federal government shutdown were racking up hundreds of thousands of views online.

The decision by eight Senate Democrats to give Republicans the necessary votes to reopen the federal government this week, without definitive concessions on health care costs, has inflamed divisions within a party that for years has been reeling from internal feuds. Now, Democratic strategists are warning the latest fight is distracting from the party’s mission of pummeling the GOP ahead of the pivotal midterms next year.

Nearly every Democrat running for the Senate condemned the deal and more than a half-dozen House Democrats called for the party to dump Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. House frontliners and prominent progressives piled on. Democrats popped off on cable news interviews, in direct-to-camera videos on social media and on podcasts, venting about how their party caved. They even started fundraising off the intraparty feud.

But all that fury is threatening to rebound on them, some Democrats said.

“We didn’t love the deal either, but that doesn’t mean we think Democrats should be out shooting at each other over this,” said Matt Bennett, president of Third Way, a centrist think tank. “We need to keep the focus on where this belongs: Trump and Republicans having taken away health care from millions. Internecine warfare among Democrats is bonkers and should stop.”

Or, as another Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, put it: “The circular firing squad is not helpful.”

The House Democratic campaign arm weighed in, too, begging its members “to hold vulnerable Republicans … accountable” for the government shutdown in a memo circulated on Monday.

The internal dispute over how and when to end the longest government shutdown lays bare the deep divisions coursing through the party’s primaries across the country. Some Democrats, usually the younger ones, want to aggressively fight President Donald Trump’s agenda, reflecting the intense pressure from an enraged base. Yet other, more establishment-minded Democrats, don’t think “standing up to Donald Trump” worked, as Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said during an MSNBC interview Monday.

But there’s a risk, some Democratic strategists warned, in “los[ing] focus on the central health care issue and who’s to blame, which is the Republicans,” said Mark Longabaugh, a veteran consultant who was a top strategist for Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign. “From a political standpoint, Democrats have to return their focus [to Republicans] no matter how angry they may be with a betrayal of eight senators.”

The pressure for party unity is high, as deadlines loom for the next round of political battles: In December, Democrats are seeking a vote to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies that faces an uncertain path through the GOP-controlled Congress. In January, they’ll confront another government funding deadline.

It all comes at a perilous moment for Democrats, who are suffering from historically poor approval numbers that haven’t recovered much from their electoral wipeout last year. Democrats were jubilant about last week’s off-year victories across the country, positing that their candidates’ overperformance in two gubernatorial races indicates deep dissatisfaction with Republicans that will carry into the midterms. Public polling, too, consistently showed Republicans shouldering more of the blame for the shutdown than Democrats.

“Yet, now, here we are again, with Democrats in disarray,” said Jim Manley, a longtime Senate aide to then-Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Republicans are reveling in Democrats’ latest civil war, while warning it could end quickly and refocus the spotlight onto the GOP over one of its weaker electoral issues. Democrats held the advantage in a recent KFF poll that asked which party voters trust to handle the high cost of health insurance. Only one-third of voters in an AP-NORC poll released this week approve of Trump’s handling of health care.

“Their very messy family fight may complicate primaries and the future of the party, but it does not provide cover for the GOP on health care,” GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett said.

Democrats whiffed their first shot at unifying on Monday, but the ongoing furor over their party’s defectors — and Schumer’s inability to control them — threatened to overpower Democrats’ attacks on the GOP after Republicans blocked Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-Wis.) effort to force a vote on a one-year extension of the Obamacare subsidies. They’ll have another opportunity as House Democrats launch their own effort to force a vote on an extension through a procedural maneuver that would require some Republican support to reach the floor.

“People are focused on the deal right now and there wasn’t a lot of advance hubbub around the Baldwin test vote,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said. “By the time there is a vote in December, presumably there will be some more attention around that.”

Democrats are pivoting, but not in lockstep.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown bashed his GOP rival, Sen. Jon Husted, on Monday for “making health care unaffordable for small business owners” in a post that lacked any mention of the Democratic divide. Maine Gov. Janet Mills has hammered Republican Sen. Susan Collins, whose seat she’s seeking, for voting against Baldwin’s effort while continuing to criticize the Democratic senators who cut the shutdown deal. In Iowa’s open Senate race, state Sen. Zach Wahls kicked off a Monday press call by pairing a call for Schumer to step aside with an attack on Republicans’ “refusal to extend health care funding.”

The intraparty pile-on speaks to the political forces shaping the competitive primaries Democrats are facing in critical Senate and House races. At a time when the base is clamoring for more fighters, no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of the ropes.

“This is a downstream effect of primaries because it incentivizes talking about people who generally share your values but you differ on tactics or strategy, and explaining why they’re wrong. I don’t think that makes us more at risk,” said Amanda Litman, co-founder of the progressive candidate training group Run For Something. “I think working through it, then voters making a decision, makes us stronger in the end.”

But there appear to be limits to Democrats’ self-destruction.

Inside the Capitol, Schumer is not facing a serious threat to his leadership post at the moment, though confidence in his stewardship has taken another hit within the caucus, according to a Senate Democratic aide granted anonymity to describe internal conversations. Even Sanders, who has endorsed several of the Senate candidates most outspoken against the caucus, admitted this week that Democrats do not have a replacement.

“I understand the frustration of the base and members, but we can’t spend all our time attacking each other,” Manley said. “I’m hoping Democrats can return to the health care debate and put Republicans on their back foot.”

© Andrew Harnik/AP

Rahm Emanuel believes Americans are being presented a “binary choice” between “defund the police” and President Donald Trump’s National Guard push.

So he’s offering an alternative.

As Democrats grapple with how to cut into one of Republicans’ core issues in the midterm elections next year, the former Chicago mayor plans to lay out his own approach to public safety at an event with police leaders in Washington on Wednesday. He plans to call for pairing community policing methods with tough-on-major-crime tactics and youth interventions. He said his strategy can be a model for cities and for fellow Democrats to combat the electoral narrative that they are weak on crime.

“Democrats a) should not be scared of it and b) should be proactive about what their agenda is,” Emanuel said in an interview Monday previewing his remarks.

A political operative who’s served three presidents and across levels of government, Emanuel is attempting to position himself at the forefront of his party’s conversation on how to tackle public safety as he weighs a White House bid in 2028. He told POLITICO he doesn’t have a “hard timeline” for that decision.

Emanuel will present his strategy at the University of Chicago Crime Lab’s Policing Leadership Academy event honoring graduates on Wednesday.

His approach includes combining more training in community policing with “tough action against hardened criminals and gang members,” as well as with youth programs like the mentoring initiatives he undertook as mayor. He also wants more enforcement of gun laws and efforts to intensify them.

He distilled his public-safety pitch into a slogan that harkens back to his time leading Chicago: “More cops on the beat, and getting kids, guns and gangs off the street.”

As mayor, Emanuel grappled with a surge in homicides and shootings, with the city reporting its deadliest year in two decades in 2016. Crime rates across major categories — murders, shootings, robberies and burglaries — declined over the next two years, which the city’s police department attributed to strengthened community partnerships and technological investments. And Emanuel poured millions in expanding youth mentoring and summer job programs to keep kids off the streets, initiatives that remain a point of pride.

He was also besieged by backlash to his handling of the 2014 murder of a Black teenager by a white cop — criticism that continued as he embarked on reforming Chicago’s police department and has persisted in his political career.

Emanuel drew national headlines for tangling with Trump over crime and immigration during the president’s first term. He would face stiff competition in that lane if he ran for the White House in 2028 — Democratic governors like Illinois’ JB Pritzker are fighting Trump’s National Guard incursions into their major cities.

Emanuel expressed opposition to Trump’s efforts to flood blue bastions with Guard troops and federal immigration officers, part of a two-pronged crackdown the president is pushing to boost Republicans in the midterms. Trump claims it has reduced crime. Several states and cities have sued over his Guard deployments to some success, with Illinois and Chicago currently battling the Trump administration before the Supreme Court.

Asked if there was anything effective about Trump’s strategy, Emanuel pointed to a “thread of positive” — that concentrating troops in one area of a city could give local law enforcement the ability to focus elsewhere.

But he stressed he was “not endorsing” that use of the Guard. “It’s a horrible idea to parachute in 100 to 200 people for a short duration of time who have no sense of a community or no sense of what policing is,” he said. “All the money you’re spending on the National Guard could be used to train 500 [local] officers.”

As Trump works to exploit public safety concerns in the midterms, Emanuel said Democrats have to get “comfortable” talking about crime. Democrats are broadly urging their party to go on the offense on the issue, bolstered by private polling that shows a mix of attacks on Republicans and showing steps Democrats are taking to reduce crime can swing voters in their direction.

Emanuel said Democrats should stop crouching behind falling crime statistics that don’t match voters’ perceptions. “Nobody can be complacent or comforted by a statistic,” he added.

He also repeatedly derided the “defund” slogan that criminal justice reformers and progressives popularized in 2020 after the murder of George Floyd but that Democrats have since abandoned. The rallying cry for police reform quickly became an anchor for the party as the GOP successfully argued against its absolutism. Since then, Democrats have worked to distance themselves from it, with Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed scrubbing his social media of mentions of it and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani backing away from his past embrace of it.

Republicans are nevertheless seizing on it as they work to make Mamdani their midterms foil and hammer Democrats as soft on crime. But Emanuel argued they won’t be able to make the association stick to candidates broadly after Mamdani moved away from the mantra.

Emanuel will have to contend with his own past on public safety as he contemplates a political comeback, a record that includes helping pass Clinton’s controversial 1994 crime bill and his bungled handling of Laquan McDonald’s murder in 2014.

Emanuel said he bears “responsibility” for how he handled McDonald’s case. He has forged a “very strong relationship” with McDonald’s great uncle, Chicago pastor Marvin Hunter, who supported Emanuel as ambassador to Japan during the Biden administration. The two keep in regular contact.

He also pointed to his 2021 Senate confirmation hearing, when he acknowledged he had underestimated the “distrust” of law enforcement among Black Chicagoans and failed to do enough to address it.

“The problems were deeper, farther and more ingrained than I fully appreciated. That’s on me,” Emanuel said Monday. “But I was determined to make the changes.”

© AP

Protesters and UN security clash at climate summit in Brazil

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Maine Democrat Jordan Wood is dropping out of the Senate race to instead run for the newly vacant 2nd congressional district, he said in an interview this week, teeing up a fight to maintain Democratic control of the battleground seat.

Wood had pressed ahead in Maine’s Senate race, even as the primary rapidly evolved into a two-person race between Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills. But after Rep. Jared Golden’s (D-Maine) unexpected retirement from Congress, Wood said the high stakes race in northern Maine poses a more dire contest for Democrats to prove they can maintain their power.

“‘What do we do in this moment of crisis for our country and our state in democracy?’ That is what called me into the Senate race,” Wood said in an interview. “With Jared not running, it leaves open one of the most competitive House races in the entire country, and so I’m stepping up to take that on, because I believe we must.”

Republicans have clamored to regain control of the increasingly red district — which President Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2024 — and celebrated Golden’s withdrawal as a slam dunk for the GOP.

But Wood says he thinks Democrats are poised to maintain their control, pointing to the party’s wins in last week’s elections where voters rejected a proposed voter identification law and green lighted a red flag gun law.

“What I hear from voters across the state is an anger and a frustration at a broken politics, and less directed at a single person but a political establishment,” he said. “Voters are really looking for candidates that are putting forward a vision of the future that they can believe in and that is addressing the biggest issues that they face in life.”

Wood declined to endorse in the Senate race following his withdrawal but said he’d “support whoever the Democratic nominee is.”

Wood — who said he currently lives about 20 miles outside of the district but grew up in the area — said he and his husband are in the process of moving within the district’s boundaries. He noted that he held town halls in all 11 counties of the 2nd District during his Senate run and heard directly from many would-be constituents.

He argued his campaign reached voters not by focusing on Trump but instead speaking to the “failure” of representatives across the aisle in addressing affordability and the cost of living — issues he says are “not all just Donald Trump’s fault.”

Wood will bring fundraising heft to the race. He’s raked in more than $3 million since launching his Senate campaign in late April — roughly half of which came in the last quarter — though that includes a $250,000 loan, according to his filings with the Federal Election Commission. He started the final three months of the year with $920,000 in his campaign coffers, which he can now roll over to his House campaign.

On the Republican side, two-term former Gov. Paul LePage had raised roughly $916,000 through the end of September and started the final three months of the year with $716,000 in cash on hand.

Wood joins former Golden primary challenger Matt Dunlap, the state auditor, who pledged to stay in the race after Golden’s exit.

Woods' entrance is unlikely to end the DCCC’s ongoing search for a candidate, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Wood said that he had “been in communication” with the DCCC and “let them know our plans” but declined to provide details on the conversations.

Another potential entrant into the race is current gubernatorial candidate and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who last week left the door open to a run.

“I'm really flattered by everyone reaching out and I get why,” Jackson said in a statement. “I've won multiple times in a district that voted for Trump by talking directly to rural working class voters from across the political spectrum about how to make Maine more affordable for them.”

One other name to watch: Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis, who was once mulling a Senate bid. A Francis ally told the Bangor Daily News last week that he was considering a run in ME-02.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro.You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

Latino voters, who swung toward President Donald Trump in 2024, boomeranged back to Democrats last week, signaling the fraying of his coalition less than one year into his second term.

Few places across the country epitomize that swing like New Jersey’s Passaic County, a densely populated, geographically diverse region where Latinos comprise a plurality. Voters there supported Trump by a narrow margin in 2024, only to back Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill by double-digits last week. Union City, which is the most Latino city in the state, swung 47 points toward Democrats. And Sherrill seized the Trump-supporting 9th Congressional District, home to a large Latino population, by around 19 points.

In Virginia, the other state with a gubernatorial contest last week, the two most heavily Latino cities swung toward Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger by more than 15 points each.

And in California, support for a Democratic-backed ballot measure exceeded Kamala Harris’ share by roughly 12 points in Imperial County, where Latino residents make up 77 percent of the population. That marks the biggest swing of any county in the state.

Just one year after Trump soared to victory with 48 percent of the Latino vote nationally, these results demonstrate that Republicans have yet to cement them into their coalition. Democrats, feeling emboldened after an epic shellacking last year, have been predicting Latinos would turn on the GOP out of dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy.

Not unlike Trump in 2024, Democrats were able to capitalize on those cost-of-living concerns to lure voters this year, proving correct a series of polls that portended this trend. It is giving the beleaguered party new optimism about their chances of taking back the House in next year's midterms, as many of the districts up for grabs have substantial Latino populations.

“There was a lot of conversation heading out of the last election about a monolithic realignment, and I think it missed the fact that Trump is a unique beast who was able to persuade Latinos that he has their interests at heart,” said Tory Gavito, president of progressive donor network Way to Win. “In the last 11 months, he's done everything but think about Latinos’ interests.”

Democrats’ success with Latinos during this off-cycle election may not necessarily translate to races across the country in 2026, when the minority party will fight to retake control of Congress. And Latino voters in Florida and South Texas are likely to vote differently from those in New Jersey or California.

Further muddling the midterm picture is the Trump question. The president successfully turned out low-propensity Latino voters, some of whom may be more likely to participate in a midterm race than an odd-year election, especially if Trump decides to play a role in next year’s showdown.

So Republicans, who have made a big bet on majority-Latino districts in order to keep their majority next year, have some cause for hope amid an otherwise brutal Election Day for them. While GOP candidates underperformed Trump with Latinos last week, they still put up better numbers than the Republicans of a decade ago (in New Jersey in 2017 for example, Republicans won just 17 percent of the Latino vote, compared to roughly a third this time). And Tuesday’s elections also gave the GOP a new foil in New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whom they think can further tarnish Democrats’ standing with Latino voters across the country who oppose socialism. (Mamdani won 58 percent of the vote in election districts where Latinos made up the largest share of the population, according to data compiled by The City.)

The day after the election, the National Republican Congressional Committee launched Spanish-language ads in 11 swingy congressional districts decrying the “socialist” soon-to-be New York City mayor as “the future that Democrats want” and warning voters their city could be next.

“Democrats have ignored Hispanic communities over the past nine years while millions of working families rejected their radical, socialist agenda,” Christian Martinez, the NRCC’s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement. “Republicans will continue to earn the support of Hispanic voters because we are working to deliver opportunity, security, and a better life.”

Democrats largely credited their messaging on affordability and blaming Trump for not following through on his economic campaign promises for their rebound with Latino voters.

“Latinos are rejecting Republicans’ broken promises of lower costs and a strong economy,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez said in a statement last week. “Groceries, utilities, and health care are unaffordable and that’s why Latinos will help Democrats take back control of the House next November.”

In California, the Prop 50 campaign to bolster Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push leaned heavily on immigration in its messaging, using imagery of ICE and Border Patrol raids to argue Trump’s power must be checked. The campaign’s Spanish-language ads focused predominantly on the immigration crackdown, with cursory mention of Trump’s tariffs.

“The Latino revolt was economic and personal — Trump hit their wallets with tariffs and our communities with raids,” said Juan Rodriguez, a senior strategist for Newsom. “From California to races across the country, the message for 2026 couldn’t be clearer.”

A lot could change with the state of the economy that could either bolster or weaken their message. And some are cautioning Democrats not to get too comfortable with last week's results — and not to rely strictly on affordability messaging.

“This doesn't mean that Democrats have it in the bag,” said Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, an immigration reform group, who added that she hopes to see Democrats message more on immigration in addition to the economy during the midterms. “We’ve seen it before — there's a lot of distrust of Democrats on immigration issues because of promises that have been made.”

“They have a lot to vote against,” she continued. “The challenge for Democrats is giving them something to vote for.”

In New Jersey, Sherrill’s victory looms large over the state’s 9th congressional district, a plurality-Latino seat that encompasses parts of Bergen and Passaic counties. Sherrill won both by double digits, a major swing after Trump flipped Passaic and lost Bergen by just 3 points in 2024. Republicans are targeting the district’s first-term representative, Democrat Nellie Pou, largely because Trump won the seat in 2024.

But ticket-splitting in the district’s further down-ballot races may demonstrate that Democrats’ work isn’t done there. In Hawthorne, a borough where Latinos make up around one-quarter of the population, preliminary results show Sherrill won but incumbent Republicans prevailed in mayoral and council races.

Carlos Cruz, a Republican strategist who worked on a super PAC backing Sherrill’s opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, said that last year’s election was a “referendum” on leadership in Washington and the economy, and people cast a ballot this year for the same reasons.

“There were people who voted for the president who wanted to see more,” Cruz said. “For Democrats to overreact and say ‘Nellie is safe now’ is fundamentally misreading this year's elections.”

Morghan Cyr, Pou’s campaign manager, said that the results “solidified one thing for Democrats above all: Latino communities are key to success across the board.”

“Early, intentional investment in and engagement with these communities is essential to Democrats taking back the House in 2026,” Cyr said in a statement last week. “The progress that was made this week is good, but we have to keep building on it.”

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© Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

A Utah judge on Monday rejected a Republican-passed redistricting plan that created two more-competitive districts in the state — a win for Democrats who thought the map did not go far enough.

In denying the new map, the judge put in place one of two options offered by plaintiffs that creates a solidly-Democratic district that covers Salt Lake City, giving the party its second win in the redistricting wars that have swept the nation ahead of the midterms.

In her ruling, issued minutes before a midnight deadline, Judge Dianna Gibson said the Republican map “fails to abide by and conform with the requirements” of a 2018 voter-approved ballot measure that created nonpartisan redistricting standards for the state Legislature.

In October, Republican state legislators passed the map the judge ultimately denied, which created two competitive districts that still favored Republicans.

The Utah case centers around a voter-approved measure against partisan gerrymandering in the state passed in 2018, one that Republicans are collecting signatures to undo.

Utah is just one piece in the broader redistricting puzzle. Already, Republicans have drawn nine favorable districts in four states, with others on the horizon. Democrats got their first win in the battle last week, when California voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative that could net the party five more seats.

Several Utah Democrats are inching toward entering the race. Former Rep. Ben McAdams is expected to announce his candidacy soon, according to three people with direct knowledge of his thinking. He has already garnered support from Welcome PAC, a national group which backs more moderate candidates over progressives.

A Democrat has not represented Utah in Congress since 2021, when McAdams left office.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report misstated the number of Utah Democrats who have served in Congress.

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© George Frey/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin are inserting themselves into the state’s redistricting fight, escalating pressure on state lawmakers and the senate president to take up the mid-decade redrawing of congressional lines ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The two prominent Maryland Democrats sent a four-page letter to the entire Maryland General Assembly Monday, where they framed their endorsement of redrawing the state’s maps as a way to rebuff the president’s "authoritarian attack on democratic elections and voting rights” while casting the fight as an “ethical moral and political imperative" to act.

That nationwide effort has been stymied in Maryland, where the state’s Senate president, Bill Ferguson, has rejected the push to change maps in the state.

“We write today to applaud the governor’s redistricting initiative and urge you to move forward to explore what we can do as a state to help prevent the imminent disaster of President Trump determining the results of the 2026 congressional elections through aggressive mid-decade gerrymandering and therefore clinching control of the U.S. House of Representatives before a single vote is even cast,” the lawmakers write.

The letter comes a week after Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) announced the creation of a redistricting advisory commission that is expected to solicit feedback from Marylanders on whether the state should move forward with redrawing maps. Democrats dominate the state’s congressional delegation and if the party is successful in redrawing the maps it could only pick up a single seat — currently occupied by Republican Rep. Andy Harris, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus.

While the state’s top Democrats, including Moore and Maryland House Speaker Adrienne Jones, are all on board with exploring redistricting, Ferguson has remained a holdout.

Two weeks ago Ferguson sent his own letter to dozens of state lawmakers bucking his party and outlining why the Maryland Senate would not take up the effort. Part of his rationale was that the Maryland Supreme Court is packed with several justices appointed by Moore’s successor, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. He suggests that not only raises the possibility that any new maps that give Democrats an 8-0 advantage could be struck down, but it could trigger a loss of Democratic seats in the state, something he referred to as “the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic.”

Ferguson’s office acknowledged it had received the letter but did not comment. The Baltimore Sun was the first to report on the letter.

Moore, a potential 2028 presidential hopeful, said in an appearance on CBS “Face the Nation” on Sunday that Maryland should not stand on the sidelines as other states, especially Republican-led states, jump into redistricting.

“If other states are going to have this process and go through this- go through this journey of identifying whether or not they have fair maps in a mid-decade cycle, then so should Maryland,” Moore said. “I'm just not sure why we should be playing by a different set of rules than Texas, or than Florida, or than Ohio or all these other places.”

There’s been pressure mounting on Maryland to move for weeks, and Ferguson is seen as the party’s biggest impediment to moving forward. Democrats’ resounding victories last week in Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, as well as the overwhelming passage of a ballot initiative passed by California voters to redraw state lines to pick up five liberal-leaning seats to counteract a similar move in Texas to net five Republican-leaning seats, is ramping up the urgency to act.

Hoyer and Raskin’s letter calls Ferguson out by name and attempts to undercut some of his reasons for hesitating on moving forward.

“While Senator Ferguson is obviously right that there is an element of uncertainty in all litigation, there are some well-established doctrines that courts follow out of deference to the legislature’s constitutional power over redistricting,” the lawmakers write. “Chief among these is the principle that, when a court strikes down a newly enacted map as unlawful, the legislature must be afforded a reasonable opportunity to remedy the violation.”

The letter also appears to be aimed at pressuring Ferguson by energizing some of the state lawmakers that he leads, possibly ramping up the stakes they could move against him.

“We don’t need to remind you that Marylanders have paid a heavy price during the first year of the second Trump Administration,” they write, listing off items including 15,000 federal employees that have been fired since Trump returned to power and thousands more workers and federal contractors that have been furloughed since the shutdown began more than a month ago.

The memo also asks state lawmakers three questions they should answer as to whether they deem the redistricting fight as imminent. “Are we in the fight of our lives to defend American democracy and freedom and our Constitution, Bill of Rights and rule of law?... is it an ethical, moral and political imperative to use every lawful means at our disposal to fight back…: can we successfully and lawfully redistrict to respond to these GOP assaults?”

To all three questions, Raskin and Hoyer write, “We believe the answer is yes.”

© Mariam Zuhaib/AP

Senate Democrats’ embrace of a shutdown deal that doesn’t guarantee extended health care subsidies is already an electoral issue.

Nearly every major Democratic Senate candidate panned the deal, from Texas hopeful Colin Allred, a former member of Congress, deriding it as a “joke” to Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton condemning it as a “complete betrayal of the American people.” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), the party’s most vulnerable incumbent in 2026, voted against advancing it, as did several senators eyeing a 2028 White House bid.

“Pathetic,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom wrote on X. “This is not a deal — it’s an empty promise,” Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois said. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg called it a “bad deal.”

The Sunday agreement even caused a familial dispute: Stefany Shaheen, who is running in a crowded Democratic primary for an open House seat in New Hampshire, said she couldn’t support a deal that failed to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. Her mother, retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, was one of the lead Democratic negotiators of the deal.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running to replace Jeanne Shaheen, creating the very opening her daughter is vying to fill, also rejected it in a statement Monday.

After looking to make soaring health care costs an albatross for Republicans in the midterms, Democrats’ deal to reopen the government after 40 days without language extending the expiring insurance subsidies delivered a blow to their base. The result was so fraught, even Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) opposed it amid intense criticism for allowing eight members of the Democratic caucus to side with Republicans.

Now it’s creating a litmus test for candidates in competitive midterm races next year, as Democrats fight to retake the Senate — a tough task they feel better about after routing Republicans in last week’s off-cycle elections throughout the country. They’d need to net four seats in order to seize control of the upper chamber.

“The infighting over the deal will fade quickly and by the time we get closer to the midterms, it’s very clear that Democrats will aggressively prosecute the case against Republicans on health care,” said Matt Bennett of the centrist think tank Third Way. “They will say Republicans yanked lifesaving money away from millions of Americans to fund tax cuts for the rich. And that will have the benefit of being true.”

Thirty-three Senate seats are up for grabs next year and Democrats are making a serious play for holding or flipping at least a dozen of them. A quartet of candidates vying for open seats — Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan and Zach Wahls and Nathan Sage in Iowa — reiterated their opposition to Schumer’s leadership as news of the deal spread.

“Chuck Schumer failed in his job yet again,” Platner said in a video on X. “We need to elect leaders who want to fight. … Call your senators and tell them Chuck Schumer can no longer be leader. Call your congressman and tell them that they cannot vote for this when it comes to them.”

In Michigan’s three-way primary, each candidate panned the deal, representing the ideologically vast opposition within a party otherwise mired in internal dispute.

“This is a bad deal,” McMorrow said in a video late Sunday, adding that “the old way of doing things is not working.” Abdul El-Sayed slammed the “shit” agreement and castigated Democrats for giving up their leverage “when we actually can force [Republicans] to the table” after their electoral losses last week. Rep. Haley Stevens said the deal “doesn’t work for Michigan” and that she’s “going to need a whole lot more than empty promises that we’re going to lower costs.” She did not say how she’d vote on the measure in the House. Stevens’ team confirmed she would vote against the measure in the House.

Senate Democrats’ capitulation opened an off-ramp to the record-breaking government shutdown that has snarled air travel and led to missed paychecks and lapsed food assistance. The agreement now advancing through the Senate would fund some agencies and programs for the full fiscal year and extend others until Jan. 30, 2026. It also promises Democrats a December floor vote on extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies, though it’s uncertain to pass the GOP-controlled chamber and Speaker Mike Johnson won’t promise to bring up such a vote in the House.

But in cutting a deal, Senate Democrats infuriated a party reinvigorated by its off-year electoral blowout, sparking accusations that the party again squandered its only leverage in the Republican-led Congress — and ensuring Schumer’s leadership will remain a touchstone in competitive Senate races.

None of the eight Democrats who voted to break the shutdown stalemate are facing voters next year. Two are retiring; the rest are not up for reelection until at least 2028.

They cited the financial pain the prolonged federal funding lapse was inflicting on their constituents. They cast the pending floor vote on the tax credits as a win for Democrats. And they touted other concessions they secured, like the rehiring of federal workers laid off during the shutdown.

“This bill is not perfect, but it takes important steps to reduce their shutdown’s hurt,” Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat who is retiring next year, said Sunday.

The Democrats vying to replace him disagree. Stratton, who’s previously called for new Senate leadership, cast Democrats’ cave as “a complete betrayal of the American people.” Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly both said the outcome failed to help millions of people whose health care premiums are set to skyrocket.

Across the Senate map, opposition spanned Schumer’s handpicked recruits — who’ve been largely silent about the shutdown — to the insurgents who’ve called for his ouster.

“This is a bad deal for Ohioans,” former Sen. Sherrod Brown said in a statement. Maine Gov. Janet Mills panned “the promise of a vote [on the subsidies] that won’t go anywhere.” Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper — Democrats’ best chance for flipping a Senate seat and the last major candidate to weigh in on the deal — said in a statement that “any deal that lets health care costs continue to skyrocket is unacceptable.

Sage slammed the Senate Democrats who “caved and accomplished nothing.” Jordan Wood, another Democrat running in Maine, said “America needs an opposition party willing to fight for them.” Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan said in a video, “we deserve so much more than this bullshit.” Hours later, she was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who voted against the deal.

“If people believe this is a ‘deal,’ I have a bridge to sell you,” said Flanagan’s rival, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), adding that she’s a “no” when the measure comes up for a vote in the House. “I’m not going to put 24 million Americans at risk of losing their health care.”

Senate Democrats who brokered the spending deal argued Sunday that they had succeeded in hanging rising health care costs on Republicans’ necks heading into the midterms.

“If Republicans want to join us in lowering costs for working families, they have the perfect opportunity,” Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) said Sunday at the Capitol. “If they do choose not to come to the table, they can own the disastrous premium increases.”

Democrats continued to target their own.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who was elected the next governor of New Jersey in last week’s blue wave, denounced the deal as “malpractice.” Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s incoming mayor who Schumer declined to endorse, said the compromise and anyone who supports it “should be rejected.”

“That’s not a deal,” Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), who drew a primary challenge last week, said Sunday. “It’s an unconditional surrender.”

Anger toward Senate Democrats also appears to be fueling the party’s recruitment efforts. Run for Something, a progressive candidate recruitment organization, saw double the number of signups over seven hours Sunday night — as the shutdown deal moved through the Senate — than over the same time period last Tuesday night as Democrats won elections across the country, according to co-founder Amanda Litman. The group saw 838 signups Sunday night versus 417 on election night.

The political blast radius is extending to Schumer, who is up for reelection in 2028.

Some progressive Democrats and advocacy groups called for his ouster as leader, blaming him for failing to keep his caucus in line even as he voted against the deal he said didn’t address the “health care crisis” and vowed to “keep fighting.”

Schumer “is no longer effective and should be replaced,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a potential 2028er, blasted out on X. On Monday, Khanna turned that push into a pitch to pad his supporter list.

The Sunrise Movement called for Schumer to step aside. Justice Democrats urged voters to reject the eight Senate Democrats who allowed the funding patch to proceed.

“I don’t think the Democrats leading this surrender effort understand the trust they are shattering in their own voting coalition,” Andrew O’Neill, the national advocacy director for Indivisible, warned Sunday night.

Schumer voted against the bill because it does “nothing” to address a “health care crisis” he called “devastating.” He pledged to “keep fighting.”

As House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, too, vowed to fight on, O’Neill called for his caucus to follow suit. Several said Sunday that they would.

Adam Wren and Elena Schneider contributed to this report.

© AP

In Virginia, it’s Republicans’ turn to be lost in the wilderness, and they’re spreading blame for their drubbing.

Many say lackluster gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears was deeply flawed and didn’t focus enough on the economy. Some accuse popular GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin of failing to use more of his war chest to boost candidates. Others complain that the state party failed to employ an aggressive strategy — and a group of county party chairs is considering calling for the resignation of the Virginia Republican Party chair.

Basically, they blame everyone but President Donald Trump.

“They just smoked us. I mean, gosh, they wiped us off the map,” said Tim Anderson, a Republican who lost a House of Delegates race in the battleground Virginia Beach. “It's going to take four years to rebuild what happened on Tuesday.”

Anderson, who was elected to the House in 2021, said Earle-Sears’ lack of a “motivational message that excited voters to get off the couch” doomed Republicans running at every level, who were already facing political headwinds caused by DOGE-inflicted federal job losses, along with the government shutdown.

It’s a warning sign for Republicans across the nation ahead of the 2026 races, especially without Trump atop the ballot. The GOP lost decisively Tuesday in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia, including in some reliably red areas — a shellacking that signals problems for the party as Democrats turn out in droves against Trump and his policies. Democrats are simultaneously trying to move past their own intraparty turmoil and continue hammering America’s affordability problem.

“The economy was the No. 1 issue,” said former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a Republican. “And having people talking about trans rights and the like isn't what was moving the needle. [The message] needed to address the economy at this point, and I think the administration and Republican Congress need to give that focus to get this midterm under control.”

In the final weeks of the campaign, Earle-Sears blanketed the airwaves with ads characterizing Spanberger as being for “they/them”, echoing messaging from Trump’s 2024 campaign.

A spokesperson for Earle-Sears did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

Virginia Republicans were already bracing for a tough November, given that the state’s off-year elections are traditionally a repudiation of the party in power in Washington and Trump lost Virginia by five points in 2024. Their predicament worsened when the president levied global tariffs, hurting rural areas of Virginia that rely on manufacturing and agriculture. Add to that cuts to the state’s federal workforce under the Department of Government Efficiency and the longest shutdown in U.S. history, and the party’s situation became dire.

“The majority of Virginia voters don’t like the president, and many of them have a visceral hatred for him and his governing style,” said DJ Jordan, a GOP strategist referring to Democratic voters who served as chief of staff for Jason Miyares, the attorney general who lost to a scandal-clad Democrat on Tuesday. Jordan was referring to Democratic voters.

Republicans are still unwilling to criticize Trump or his policies, but some conceded that the Democratic base was energized in opposition to the president.

“The state is a blue state, and the fact that we were running while Republicans are in the White House, history shows that that is not a recipe for success,” said a Republican strategist who was involved in the races and was granted anonymity to speak freely.

But Tuesday’s results dealt a deeper blow to the party than anticipated. Earle-Sears, who lagged in fundraising and never earned Trump’s direct endorsement, lost to Abigail Spanberger by 15 points, the largest victory by a Democrat in Virginia in decades and a bigger margin than most polls predicted. Though he fell short of victory, Miyares — the party’s best hope at pulling off an upset — brought in some ticket-splitters after Democrat Jay Jones was dragged down by a texting scandal.

“This blew past our worst case scenario of everything,” said a Republican who worked on some of the races.

In perhaps the biggest setback for the party’s long-term future, the GOP lost 13 seats in the House of Delegates, putting Democrats on a glide path to enact their agenda in Richmond — including mid-cycle redistricting to counter Trump’s push to make congressional maps more favorable to Republicans. Five of those state seats won by Democrats went for Trump in 2024, a sign of dissatisfaction among some Republican voters.

“They should have seen this coming,” said Loudoun County GOP Chair Scott Pio, who believes the party should have focused more on converting new voters than simply turning out the base. “Their strategy was quite ineffective and it shows. Now Virginia is a terribly blue state.”

Loudoun County is often considered an exurban swing county in the state.

Some Republicans’ ire extended to Youngkin, who enjoys high favorability and is prohibited by state law from seeking a consecutive term. One GOP strategist predicted that any hopes the governor has to run for president in 2028 will likely suffer because of the widespread losses.

“It’s wholly inaccurate that the governor did not spend his time, energy and significant resources on these races,” said Justin Discigil, a top Youngkin adviser.

Another cited early warning signs, like lack of a ground game and insufficient outreach to rural voters, who make up the party’s base.

“Everyone will want to blame Winsome. That's fine, if that's how they want to publicly spin,” one of the strategists said. “Everyone needs to take a serious look and realize that that is not at all the full story. The full story is we were too excited on our own brand and forgot to run a campaign up and down the ballot.”

Other Republicans dismiss any criticism that Youngkin did not do enough for the GOP ticket. He made multiple appearances on behalf of the candidates and donated close to $750,000 to Earle-Sears and $140,000 to Miyares, along with $100,000 to John Reid,the lieutenant governor whom he called on to drop out of the race over lewd photos posted online allegedly linked to him.

Pio, the Loudoun County Party chair, blamed a muddled strategy in rebuke of the state party chair, whom he is pushing to resign.

“They want to play the get out the vote game on Election Day and don't want to convert new voters,” Pio said.

Mark Peake, the chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, responded that it's not the job of the state party to set campaign strategy or run individual races — rather its purpose is to provide infrastructure, like data.

“A unit chair complaining that RPV didn't do enough to win the election — it's kind of like an offensive line coach complaining about the head coach not scoring enough points,” he said. Peake, who came into his role in April, said he has no intention of resigning.

Despite the sniping, Republicans are banking on Democrats pursuing a progressive agenda in Richmond that will alienate moderate voters.

“We can go on offense now — we can absolutely smack them upside the head every day,” said a Republican involved with the House races. “They caught the car and let's see what they do with it."

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

President Donald Trump’s supporters are willing to take a financial hit in order to support his policies, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First.

Democrats are also willing to shoulder economic pain to oppose Trump — though they’re not willing to go as far as Republicans.

In a polling experiment, POLITICO and Public First modeled how Trump can shape voters’ opinions of legislation that would cost or save them money. The typical Trump supporter would overlook having to pay about $65 more per month in taxes to back their leader, while anti-Trump voters would forego about $33 in savings if it meant opposing Trump’s agenda.

The findings demonstrate the role of partisanship in shaping public opinion about policy, and they reveal a dynamic that observers have long noted: The loyalty of Trump’s base, and the dedication of his opposition, sometimes seem to overpower voters’ apparent self-interest. Eventually, however, partisans on both sides had their limits.

Questions of economic burden and partisan loyalty were at the forefront of U.S. politics this week, with voters across several states repudiating Trump and his party and electing Democrats by enormous margins. Many of the Democratic winners, including in New Jersey and Virginia, campaigned on voters’ anger about the high cost of essentials such as energy prices, housing and health care.

The POLITICO Poll results are a reminder that — while many of Trump’s supporters have a reputation for intense loyalty — they also have a breaking point. And Tuesday’s election results suggest that despite Republican voters’ willingness to pay a literal price for Trump’s policies, the Trump agenda to date may have pushed voters too far.

The poll sought to measure just how much Trump’s stances on potential legislation affected voters’ views.

The polling experiment was designed to solve a common problem with issue polling: There is often a gap between voters’ views on something when they initially hear about it, and how they feel about that same issue once it becomes politicized. Poll respondents may say they support a particular policy, but feel differently if a politician they like comes out against it.

“One of the main challenges pollsters face is how to poll something after a politician has announced it. By that point, it can be impossible to separate genuine support for the policy, from support for the politician, from support for the arguments being made for and against it,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “To counter this, we cut out all the substance of the announcement, and looked just at how quantifiable impacts and statements of partisan support cancel each other out.”

Respondents were given a choice between two hypothetical bills. They were described not in terms of specific policies, but in terms of effects: The impact on their personal income taxes, the number of jobs in their state and the price of a dozen eggs.

Survey respondents were also told whether Trump, Republican lawmakers and Democratic lawmakers supported or opposed each bill.

After giving several variations of bills to thousands of survey respondents, we had tens of thousands of data points on voters’ preferences — enough to model out how respondents’ support for the hypothetical legislation was influenced by the approval of Trump and lawmakers.

The results were clear: There’s a real Trump endorsement effect on support for a bill.

The median Trump voter would choose a bill that would cost them $65 in monthly taxes if Trump also favored it, over a bill that saved them on taxes but did not have Trump’s support.

The trend was similar with other metrics. Trump voters were also willing to back bills that resulted in up to about 2,000 lost jobs in their state or a $1.14 increase in egg prices, provided that Trump was supportive.

For 2024 Trump voters, the president’s support was uniquely powerful. Republican lawmakers’ endorsement also had an impact with those voters, but it had less than half the power of Trump’s. Controlling for Trump’s support, GOP respondents were only willing to accept a $27 monthly tax increase for a bill backed by Republican lawmakers.

And Trump voters did not care what Democratic lawmakers thought of a bill; Democrats’ support for a bill did not move Trump voters’ positions in any statistically significant way.

Voters who had cast their ballots for former Vice President Harris in 2024 had the opposite response.

The median Harris voter would give up tax breaks to oppose Trump’s agenda, only favoring a bill backed by Trump if it decreased their monthly taxes by $33 or more.

Those Democratic voters were also willing to miss out on the creation of more than 1,000 jobs in their states, or a 40-cent cut in the price of a dozen eggs, because of Trump’s support for a bill.

Harris voters, on the other hand, were amenable to Democratic-backed legislation that increased their taxes by $61, compared to an alternative bill that did not have Democratic support. For Trump voters, the effect of Democratic lawmakers supporting a bill was not statistically significant.

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)

Sen. Ted Cruz blasted fellow Republicans for failing to criticize Tucker Carlson, saying the conservative pundit has “spread a poison that is profoundly dangerous.”

“My colleagues, almost to a person, think what is happening is horrible, but a great many of them are frightened because he has one hell of a big megaphone,” Cruz (R-Texas) said Friday during a speech at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention in Washington.

Carlson upended the conservative movement after he hosted avowed white supremacist Nick Fuentes on his podcast last week. The incident — and the subsequent backlash — overshadowed last weekend’s Republican Jewish Coalition annual summit and sparked internal turmoil at The Heritage Foundation, leading to the resignation of multiple staff members.

Cruz, a self-described “Christian Zionist,” was among the earliest and most forceful critics of Carlson and Fuentes’ podcast episode. At the RJC last week, he said he has “seen more antisemitism on the right” in the past six months “than I have in my entire life.”

“If you sit there with someone who says Adolf Hitler was very, very cool, and that their mission is to combat and defeat global Jewry, and you say nothing, then you are [a] coward and you are complicit in that evil,” Cruz said.

But Cruz was more forceful Friday in criticizing fellow conservatives for not forcefully condemning Carlson.

“Fuentes and Tucker and the rest of that ilk have a right to say what they are saying,” Cruz said at the Federalist Society convention. “Every one of us has an obligation to stand up and say it is wrong.”

“It’s easy right now to denounce Fuentes,” Cruz added. “Are you willing to say Tucker’s name?"

When asked for comment, Carlson replied: “Poor Ted.”

Cruz, who sparred with Carlson in a feisty podcast episode in June, clarified that his complaint was not that Carlson platformed Fuentes, but that he didn’t push back on any of his antisemitic or bigoted claims. Among other things, Fuentes on the podcast claimed the “big challenge” to unifying America was “organized Jewry.”

“The last I checked, Tucker actually knows how to cross-examine,” Cruz said.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

Democratic officials, strategists and activists are gathering in Washington on Friday for the first “Crooked Con,” hosted by the podcast juggernaut “Pod Save America,” which they are billing as the Conservative Political Action Committee, CPAC, “for the left.”

The lineup features several potential 2028 candidates, including Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and California Rep. Ro Khanna. Influencers Brian Tyler Cohen and Hasan Piker are getting top billing alongside Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin and Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Janelle Bynum of Oregon and Sarah McBride of Delaware.

“We wanted to create a place where we could have these conversations about what's happening on our side and the changes that we need to make,” said Shaniqua McClendon, vice president of political strategy at Vote Save America. “The right has been much better at doing that.”

The event is timed with the group’s launch of its campaign program ahead of the 2026 midterms. In details shared first with POLITICO, Vote Save America, the nonprofit affiliated with Pod Save America and Crooked Media, announced it will be seeding more than a half-dozen on-the-ground, grassroots organizations with $250,000. So far, the group said it has raised $1.5 million for the 2026 midterms.

McClendon said they’re focusing on building up Democratic infrastructure because “a lot of those organizations just stopped getting the funding that they had been getting previously” in 2023 and 2024, when President Donald Trump swept back into the White House and Republicans held their majorities in Congress.

Those funding gaps in 2024, “I do think it had an impact,” she added

“My hope is that we can start to really push donors to think differently about the way they invest,” she said. “In no way am I saying we shouldn't give candidates money … but I think we have to be more thoughtful about investing in the infrastructure that is here all the time, and not just around Election Day.”

Vote Save America started during Trump’s first term, raising $70 million for candidates and organizations since 2018. The group boasts an email list of 600,000 volunteers.

© Charlie Neibergall/AP

Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.

Democrats still don’t have a leader to guide them out of the wilderness.

Seismic victories in a series of off-cycle elections on Tuesday showed the power of an energized liberal base all across the country — and teased at the potential for the Democratic Party to storm back to power. But those wins did not immediately crown a singular leader who can harness that energy.

There are still dozens of competitors for the throne.

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by Public First in the closing weeks of the election, found a complete lack of consensus among 2024 Kamala Harris voters on an open-ended question: Who do you consider to be the leader of the Democratic Party?

The top response was “I don’t know,” or some similar variation. It made up over one-fifth (21 percent) of responses. “Nobody” garnered an additional 11 percent.

Harris, the former vice president, was the highest person on the list and the only one in double-digits. But she was still named as the party leader by only 16 percent of the people who voted for her last year — a relatively small number given she is the party’s most recent presidential nominee, has made headlines with her book promotion and is considered a potential 2028 contender.

The rest of the top choices spanned an array of party stalwarts, including congressional leaders and former presidents. Few of them are widely considered to be among the 2028 contenders except Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was named by just 6 percent of Harris 2024 voters as the current party leader.

“This is where we are, guys,” said Lauren Harper Pope, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of WelcomePAC, which supports center-left candidates.

The party is divided “factionally and ideologically,” she said: “I couldn’t tell you who the leader of the Democratic Party is, either, and I work in Democratic politics.”

On Tuesday, a divided party that has spent a year licking its wounds in the wake of stunning losses in 2024 found new hope: Democrats romped in a series of statewide and downballot elections in blue and purple states, giving the party a much-needed boost a year after Trump returned to the White House and Republicans seized a governing trifecta in Washington.

In the marquee governors’ races, two moderates — Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger and New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill — cruised to convincing wins. In California, Newsom’s redistricting gambit paid off. Other lower-profile races across Georgia, Pennsylvania and Virginia showed convincing shifts for Democrats. And in New York City, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani dominated the mayoral election, sending flashing red lights for Republicans in Washington.

“It felt like we’re getting our footing back, in terms of politics,” said Lanae Erickson, vice president at the centrist-leaning Democratic think tank Third Way.

But those wins alone do not necessarily signal the rise of a new leader, she said: “That has not yet translated to people seeing clearly who they think is pointing the direction of the party.”

The difference could not be more stark between the two major parties: Among Republicans, everyone knows who is in charge.

Among last year’s Trump voters, 81 percent said he’s the party’s current leader. Only 6 percent said they don’t know who the leader is, and 2 percent said “nobody.”

The next top names after Trump were Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Vice President JD Vance, who garnered 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

An obvious explanation between the two major parties, of course, is that Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

“This is pretty standard for a party that is out of power,” said Jared Leopold, a strategist who previously worked for the Democratic Governors Association. Republicans had no clear leader before Trump emerged in 2016 and Democrats had none until Barack Obama emerged in 2008, Leopold noted.

“The party should be in a, ‘let a thousand flowers bloom’ mold right now,” Leopold added. “Democrats were successful [Tuesday] as a big tent party running on affordability and against Donald Trump. That’s a two-piece equation that will be successful for us as we move toward 2028.”

© Illustration by Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO (source images via Getty)

SAN JUAN — Zohran Mamdani wants to be a new kind of leader for New York. But in his second day as mayor-elect, he embraced an old political tradition: partying in Puerto Rico.

New York’s Democrats — from state lawmakers to City Hall aides to union power brokers — decamp to San Juan every November for a long weekend of panels and receptions, schmoozing and dealmaking. With more than 4,000 attendees, the Somos conference doubles as the New York political world’s unofficial family reunion, and this year the family member with the newest and unlikeliest win was its biggest draw.

The 34-year-old democratic socialist, whose stunning victory upended the political order those insiders helped build, arrived at the Caribe Hilton hotel early Thursday evening to address a teeming crowd of hundreds that had been waiting for him on the oceanfront.

While Mamdani’s audience was different than the crowds he faced during his campaign rallies — a sea of Democratic power players, many of whom view politics as an industry above all else — his message wavered little.

“It is time for working people to be able to afford to live in the city that they call home,” Mamdani told the crowd. “When I look at these leaders, I see partners who are willing to do two things all at once, fight an authoritarian administration and deliver on an affordability crisis. No longer can we just do one. Now we must do both. “

There are many receptions to choose from at Somos, and Mamdani made a statement with his pick: an outdoor gathering co-hosted by District Council 37 — the city’s public employees union, which supported him in the election over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — and state Attorney General Letitia James, who also embraced the upstart’s candidacy.

“Courage, my friends, is contagious,” James said on stage. “And what we have in the next mayor of the city of New York, Zohran Mamdani, we've got a leader with this bold leadership, this bold vision, who will bring us all together, and we must recognize and support him and protect him each and every day.”

For Mamdani, the trip wasn’t just a celebration — it was a debut before the establishment he once ran against. Somos is where New York’s Democratic hierarchy gathers each year to gossip, broker deals and take the temperature of power. And now the mayor-elect was suddenly at the center of it all.

His presence posed a new question for both sides: Would Mamdani try to build bridges with the Democratic old guard — or keep his distance from the machine he’s long criticized? And would the party’s power brokers, wary but impressed, open the door to a mayor who preaches redistribution and quotes Eugene Debs?

For now, Mamdani is signaling coexistence rather than confrontation. He plans private meetings through the weekend but is steering clear of the bar circuit that defines much of Somos’ after-hours politicking — a cautious entrance for a figure still deciding how close to get to the city’s old power structure.

Still, Mamdani has been the talk of the conference since it kicked off Wednesday, and his arrival was eagerly awaited. “When’s my boyfriend getting in?” Rep. Nydia Velázquez joked Thursday morning in the hotel lobby.

When Mamdani attended the Somos conference for the first time in 2024, he didn’t get much attention — he was a newly announced mayoral candidate polling near zero percent. One year later, he was the belle of the ball, having to sneak in the side door because the lobby would have been too busy, and later escape droves of admirers who rushed under the barricades after his speech for a selfie.

Velázquez and James were among those who joined him for a brief press availability in a hotel conference room before he stepped out to the reception.

Mamdani said he was “looking forward to having a conversation with President Trump” — after the president said on Fox News “it would be more appropriate” for the mayor-elect to reach out to him, rather than the other way around.

He didn’t have a specific time planned, Mamdani said, but when they do talk, “it will be a conversation that will be geared towards serving New Yorkers across the five boroughs, New Yorkers who are currently being priced out of the most expensive city in the United States of America.”

Trump has threatened to pull federal funds from the city and send in troops if Mamdani won.

Mamdani also responded to House Speaker Mike Johnson calling him a “Marxist.” 

“If I were Speaker Johnson, I would also not focus on the disastrous results of what the Republican administration has delivered for Americans across this country,” he said. “It is time for us to show that politics can be more than the cruelty and the punishment we so often see coming out of Washington, D.C.”

And when asked about Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s plans to launch her campaign for governor Friday, Mamdani said she “typifies the exact kind of politics that has created so much despair across the city, across the state and across the country.”

But his focus wasn’t only on GOP leaders. Asked how bullish he is on his plan to get state government to raise taxes on New Yorkers making over $1 million to fund his proposals like free, universal child care, Mamdani reiterated that “the most important thing is to fund the agenda.” And if state Gov. Kathy Hochul remains opposed to raising taxes but has other means to raise revenue, “I'm open to them, because what I care most about is that we actually deliver on these things.”

Hochul herself spoke at the receptions before Mamdani and celebrated his victory as an exclamation mark to a set of wins Democrats delivered throughout the state on Tuesday.

But the governor — who initially kept Mamdani at arms length before putting out a carefully-worded endorsement — seemed keenly aware of their political differences.

“Our fight is not with each other,” the governor said. “It is with Republicans in Washington who are destroying our way of life, our democracy.”

Eleven days prior, she had appeared at a campaign rally with Mamdani for the first time, where his fans shouted down the more moderate governor’s speech with chants of “Tax the Rich!”

Even at the posh Somos gathering, the governor was subjected to those same calls, shouted from the crowd when she took the stage.

“I hear you, but I'm the type of person, the more you push me, the more I'm not going to do what you want,” she said. “So little lesson to all of our friends out there.”

Mamdani will stay in San Juan through Saturday morning. But he already got a taste of an island delicacy before coming to the hotel.

“I'm proud to report,” he said, “that in the few hours I've been here, I've already had some mofongo, and it was great.”

© Jeff Coltin/POLITICO

Helping propel Abigail Spanberger’s dominant win in the Virginia governor’s race Tuesday are dissatisfied rural voters who have supported Donald Trump.

Spanberger’s victory was largely driven by massive turnout in northern and eastern Virginia's urban areas. But she picked up support across the state’s deep-red central and western counties, where Trump’s tariffs have hit the manufacturing and agricultural industries especially hard. Even as her GOP opponent won most of those places, Spanberger posed the best performance by a statewide Democratic candidate in several cycles, according to a POLITICO analysis of voting data in the localities classified as “rural” by the federal government.

Rural voters are dissatisfied with economic conditions, including Trump’s erratic tariff threats that have impacted farmers throughout the country. The result was a rude awakening for some rural-state Republicans, who have long relied on large margins in these deep-red areas.

“Last night, honestly, was an awakening for a lot of folks,” said Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.V.) Wednesday. “If you don't pick up on what really happened last night, the margin of victory … then I think you're living in a cave.”

Spanberger outperformed Kamala Harris’ margin in 48 of Virginia’s 52 rural localities. And according to exit polling, she won 46 percent of rural voters — an 8-point deficit to Republican rival Winsome Earle-Sears, and a 19-point swing from 2021 Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe’s 27-point disadvantage.

And she accomplished that after emphasizing Trump’s tariffs on the campaign trail.

“When those tariffs are squeezing Virginia farmers and producers, that is a huge impact on our economy,” Spanberger said in laying out her economic plan. Throughout the campaign, she derided the tariffs as a “massive tax hike on Virginians” and pledged to lead trade missions to open export markets for the state’s $82 billion agricultural sector and $50 billion manufacturing sector.

Now national Democrats, feeling bullish after Tuesday’s big wins, are praising Spanberger’s performance in rural areas as a blueprint for the party in the upcoming midterms, when netting three seats will hand them control of the House.

“Last night’s results show Democrats can win back rural voters with a relentless focus on affordability,” said Eli Cousin, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, on Wednesday. “The results are also a massive warning sign for House Republicans … who have made life harder for rural Americans by rubber stamping cost-spiking tariffs and voting to put rural hospitals and health clinics at risk of closure.”

Spanberger, the first woman elected governor in Virginia’s history, deviated from party orthodoxy by spending significant time campaigning in the deep-red rural pockets of the state, even as recently as last week. Her messaging there focused almost exclusively on the economic issues ailing rural America during the first nine months of the Trump administration, including the seismic impact of tariffs and the fallout on rural health care from Medicaid cuts.

“People are so tired about the chaos right now from the federal government,” said Roberta Thacker-Oliver, the rural caucus chair for Virginia Democrats. “She sent a message about the everyday things, about lowering costs for people.”

Democrats see Spanbergers’ strategy as a template for the 2026 midterms. As Republicans eye redrawing more favorable House districts across the country, an aggressive push Democrats are starting to challenge, the minority party’s chances at retaking control of Congress will increasingly rely on its ability to compete in rural districts.

Chris Sloan, political director for the Democratic Governors Association, attributed Spanberger’s win to “a relentless focus on the economy and affordability.”

“These are issues that resonated with voters everywhere,” he added, “and we took advantage of that.”

Rachel Shin contributed reporting.

© Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

NEW YORK — Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is facing a deeply skeptical business community that has long called the shots in New York. But don’t go looking for the moving vans just yet.

Gotham’s business elite are taking a wary — but open-minded — view of the young democratic socialist who wants to hike their taxes, quotes Eugene Debs and believes billionaires shouldn’t exist.

Kathy Wylde, the president of the business-backed Partnership for New York City, compared the relationship between her constituents and the mayor-elect to the seven stages of grief.

“We’re moving toward acceptance,” Wylde said.

Still, contingency plans are being prepared by some, even as the city’s wealthiest residents consider how to court the incoming mayor.

“Business people, smart business people, going into this are thinking, ‘Watch your ass, you’re in combat,’” said John Catsimatidis, a billionaire oil executive, grocery store tycoon and ally of President Donald Trump. “I talked to him once. He’s a young kid … He never ran anything. If he came in with a job application I wouldn’t hire him to run a supermarket.”

Catsimatidis, who unsuccessfully pressed Republican Curtis Sliwa to get out of the mayoral race to aid former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s bid, is weighing his business options.

“What I’m going to do is reduce my exposure to New York,” he said. “I have a lot of businesses in New York, I have a lot of assets in New York. Remember the old expression, ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket?’”

Mamdani will take office on Jan. 1, leading a city of 8.5 million residents that serves as the world’s financial and media capital — a money powerhouse that many of the planet’s wealthiest people call home. Now, those same business leaders — long accustomed to sympathetic mayors from Michael Bloomberg to Eric Adams — are adjusting to a leader who promises to upend the city’s economic order.

The mayor-elect wants permission from state officials to raise taxes on corporations and uber-rich New Yorkers to pay for his campaign promises like free child care and buses. His embrace of far-left democratic socialism supported by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders is anathema to the capitalists who have long wielded power in New York City.

The city’s monied class sank millions of dollars into super PACs in a futile effort to stop Mamdani’s insurgent candidacy, which was built on a populist appeal to voters outraged by the cost of living in a deeply expensive city. He did so with a volunteer army of thousands and millions of dollars in relatively modest donations.

Mamdani this week signaled he’s willing to talk with and work with some of the biggest of the biggest capitalists, name checking JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon during Wednesday morning remarks.

“It is critically important that we start to embody a style of leadership that does not demand agreement across every single issue,” Mamdani said. “In order to even have a conversation, we need to be able to deliver for New Yorkers, and that means to meet New Yorkers, even those with whom we have any disagreements. So I look forward to having those kinds of meetings, be it with Jamie Dimon or be it with other business leaders.”

Business titans are counting on New York’s moderate Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, to block Mamdani from raising their taxes. And some met with him after he won the primary and others are seeking meetings now — determining whether the untested mayor-elect will be rigidly orthodox or open to compromise.

Wylde views Hochul, who endorsed Mamdani but is heading into her own tough reelection battle next year and wary of raising taxes, as a kind of fiscal firebreak.

The governor opposes hiking income and business taxes. Any deal to do so must be approved by the Democratic-dominated state Legislature and signed by Hochul.

“The governor has done a great job of reassuring the business community since the primary that she will not allow anything crazy on taxes and that she fully appreciates that New York has to stay competitive,” Wylde said.

People in real estate, meanwhile, have been comforted by Mamdani’s embrace of veteran City Hall hands like Maria Torres-Springer, who served three mayors, and respected city planning czar Dan Garodnick, who have worked well with the industry. Others have taken note of the mayor-elect’s increased attention to bringing down landlord costs as part of the equation for a multi-year rent freeze that was a pillar of his campaign platform.

“There isn’t going to be an exodus of people. There are definitely people that are going to leave, but I don’t think that’s going to be a trend — a Wall Street trend or a real estate trend — if in fact the city stays safe and prosperous,” said MaryAnne Gilmartin, president and CEO of development firm MAG Partners and a member of the Real Estate Board of New York, the industry’s leading trade group. “If he pays close attention to that, I think people will and should give him a chance.”

Even those who poured money into the unsuccessful efforts to stop Mamdani from winning are admitting he was onto something in a campaign that focused largely on cost of living issues facing New Yorkers.

Scott Rechler of RXR, a major developer, said in a statement Wednesday he’s “ready to work” with the mayor-elect. Rechler donated $250,000 to a pro-Cuomo super PAC in the Democratic primary, and reacted to Mamdani’s surprise win in June by expressing hope he could be beat in the general election.

Steven Roth, the CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, one of the city’s largest commercial landlords, also put money into a political action committee aimed at halting Mamdani. But, in an earnings call with investors hours before the polls closed Tuesday, he was sanguine. Roth said he was yet to see any pullback in demand for customers because of a Mamdani mayoralty.

“I'm an optimist and believe that everything will work out for the best,” Roth said.

Bill Ackman, the Trump ally and hedge fund titan who was one of the single largest donors in the mayoral race and opposed Mamdani, congratulated him on election night in a social media post.

“If I can help NYC, just let me know what I can do,” he said.

In a follow up post, Ackman doubled down on the conciliatory tone. “Mamdani won a decisive election,” he wrote. “He is going to be our mayor for the next four years.”

Dimon, who reportedly reached out to Mamdani on Wednesday, did a sitdown interview with CNN alongside Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a lifelong Democrat who left the party and is running for Michigan governor as an independent. Asked if he could imagine himself doing a sitdown alongside Mamdani, Dimon said he would help someone if they wanted his help, but didn’t give a ringing endorsement.

“I’ve seen a lot of mayors, governors, political leaders — some grow into the job,” Dimon said. “And I’ve seen a lot who swell under the job, they never get around to it. They are so befuddled with politics and ideology. I’m hoping any mayor does what’s right to help the citizens of that city.”

Antonio Weiss, a Treasury official in the Obama administration and investor at the New York-based firm SSW Partners, said Mamdani is “substantive on policy yet open to learning more and to hearing additional perspectives.”

“Mamdani has made a serious effort to expand his coalition during the general election, and that has meant sitting down with people who don’t necessarily agree with him,” Weiss said.

The mayor-elect was a little-known state lawmaker when he launched his campaign and insiders didn’t know him like they knew the past several mayors who, despite widely different politics, were city hall veterans, like Bill de Blasio and Eric Adams.

One view is that Mamdani’s key platforms — free buses, freezing rent — were planting flags to show he’ll take bold steps but his ultimate policies will be more nuanced.

“What he’s signaling,” said Tom Wright, the head of the vaunted Regional Plan Association, “is he wants to fix the problem.”

Sam Sutton contributed to this report.

© J. David Ake/AP

In the lead-up to Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey, some Democrats wondered if Mikie Sherrill could pull off the improbable: winning three consecutive terms for the party for the first time since 1961.

But Sherrill was confident she would emerge victorious.

Sherrill said Wednesday in an interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns on “The Conversation” podcast that she “never really felt too nervous about my ability to win this one.”

As early voting got underway, it became clear that it was “just a matter of how much we'd win by,” Sherrill said.

“The narrative was weird in the primary, and it was weird in the general, and I think some of that was because of how people felt from ’24, that there was still this kind of hangover from ’24 and how that race went,” she told POLITICO.

Still, the enthusiasm on the ground — especially at last month’s nationwide “No Kings” rallies — convinced Sherrill that voters would deliver for her.

Sherrill speculated that some observers underestimated her campaign because it didn’t follow the model of “the traditional Democratic campaign” in New Jersey, where the legacy of machine politics looms large.

"Because we built this a different way, I think it wasn't as clear to people how we were doing it and how we were getting our votes out,” she said. “And I think that probably made some people nervous, but I would say that we invested a lot of time, energy and resources in a statewide field program, the likes of which have never been seen.”

Sherrill also said that her military background conveyed her "decisive” leadership style to voters, who she said trust her to deliver on promises like bringing down energy costs.

While she said she hasn’t yet spoken to President Donald Trump, the governor-elect told POLITICO that she’s intent on “clawing back as many resources into the state of New Jersey as possible.”

“I'm really hoping we can convince the administration, ‘hey, if you want to have a comeback in this economy, this is where you start and this is how you do it,’” she said.

Despite striking a message comfortably to the right of New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, Sherrill said she and her Democratic peers who saw electoral success across the board Tuesday have one thing in common: “This desire to make change that things aren't working for people.”

Listen to POLITICO's full conversation with Sherill on Friday's episode of “The Conversation."

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

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Mikie Sherrill reacts to her election victory

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Battleground Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — who has thwarted repeated GOP efforts to unseat him in a red district — will not seek reelection, writing in an op-ed Wednesday “that now is the right time to step away from elected office.”

Golden was facing both a primary challenge from his left and a strong challenge from former Maine GOP Gov. Paul LePage in the state’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump won by about 10 points in 2024.

“I have never loved politics,” Golden wrote in the Bangor Daily News. “But I find purpose and meaning in service, and the Marine in me has been able to slog along through the many aspects of politics I dislike by focusing on the good work that Congress is capable of producing with patience and determination.”

“But after 11 years as a legislator, I have grown tired of the increasing incivility and plain nastiness that are now common from some elements of our American community — behavior that, too often, our political leaders exhibit themselves,” he continued.

Golden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race buoys the campaign of Matt Dunlap, the state auditor who jumped in the race last month and attacked Golden from the left, accusing the fourth-term lawmaker of voting too often with Republicans in Congress.

Prior to Dunlap’s campaign launch, Golden’s campaign released polling showing Dunlap trailing LePage by 10 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly urged Dunlap not to challenge Golden — which the DCCC has not refuted.

Dunlap’s campaign rolled out a slate of dozens of endorsements last week, including one from a former state senator who was also listed as an endorser of Golden earlier this year.

In a social media statement, Dunlap praised Golden’s tenure in Congress.

“I want to thank Jared Golden for his military service and years in public office,” he wrote on X. “We may have disagreed on issues, but I believe he is a good person, husband, and father.

Golden said he was motivated to step away from public life in part due to the rise in political violence around the country — pointing to the killing of Charlie Kirk, the attempted assassinations of President Donald Trump, the attack on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and the killing of Minnesota state legislator Melissa Hortman.

“These have made me reconsider the experiences of my own family, including all of us sitting in a hotel room on Thanksgiving last year after yet another threat against our home,” Golden wrote. “There have been enough of those over the years to demand my attention.”

Golden called for open and competitive primaries in both parties while condemning both LePage and Dunlap as “a far cry from being standard bearers of the generations that will inherit the legacy of today’s Congress.” He added that he believed he would win if he decided to stay in the race, but dreaded the responsibility of returning to Congress.

“I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning,” he wrote. “Simply put, what I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son.”

The announcement took Democrats on Capitol Hill by surprise. Many of Golden’s colleagues believed he would run for re-election despite the primary challenge.

“I sincerely commend Jared for all the work he has done for Mainers, from lowering costs to protecting lobstermen’s jobs and fighting for veterans,” DCCC chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said in a statement. “His efforts to revitalize the Blue Dog Coalition have helped to grow our party, and his willingness to cross the aisle and find bipartisan solutions was deservedly rewarded time and time again by his constituents who continued to re-elect him despite bruising campaigns.”

With Golden out of the race, Republicans are expressing confidence the GOP will flip his seat in next year’s midterms.

“Serial flip-flopper Jared Golden’s exit from Congress says it all: He’s turned his back on Mainers for years and now his chickens are coming home to roost,” NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement. “He, nor any other Democrat, has a path to victory in ME-02 and Republicans will flip this seat red in 2026.”

“Congressman Jared Golden is out after two public polls from the UNH Survey Center and other polls showed him losing Maine’s second congressional district to former Governor Paul LePage in Maine,” Brent Littlefield, a LePage campaign strategist, wrote on social media. “Team LePage is committed to helping bring stronger representation and more prosperity to the people of Maine.”

Nicholas Wu contributed to this report. 

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the government shutdown played a “big role” in Democrats’ victories Tuesday night and urged Republicans to kill the Senate filibuster to quickly restore federal funding.

“If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans,” Trump said during a breakfast with Senate Republicans at the White House. “Last night, it was not expected to be a victory, it was very Democrat areas. I don't think it was good for Republicans. I don't think it was good for anybody. We had an interesting evening and learned a lot."

He cited outside pollsters who have attributed the GOP losses to the fact that Trump wasn’t on the ballot, depressing turnout among the MAGA base. “I don't know about that but I was honored that they said that,” he added.

Trump used his candid autopsy of the election results to urge Republicans to kill the Senate filibuster to quickly reopen the government and then enact their agenda, including a national voter ID requirement.

He acknowledged that it’s an unlikely proposition as most Senate Republicans oppose the move but warned that he believes Democrats will do so the next time they’re in power.

“It’s possible you’re not going to do that, and I’m going to go by your wishes,” he said. “You’re very smart people. But I think it’s a tremendous mistake. It would be a tragic mistake, actually.”

On Wednesday, the shutdown stretched into its longest in U.S. history, with the previous 35-day shutdown set during Trump’s first term in 2019. Republican and Democratic lawmakers are locked in a stalemate.

Democrats on Tuesday won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and a high-profile mayoral race in New York City in which Trump endorsed two of the losing candidates. Complicating Trump’s newfound focus on a swift end to the shutdown, the romp only further ratcheted up pressure on Democratic senators who are signaling they could be ready to end the record-breaking government shutdown to hold the line until they secure an extension to Affordable Care Act subsidies.

“Republicans aren't the ones asking for anything, so for them it's a choice between changing the rules or helping Dems find an offramp,” Liam Donovan, a veteran GOP strategist, told POLITICO. “Last night's result theoretically allows Democrats to declare victory and end this on their own terms, but success makes choreography of any resolution that much trickier.”

Northern Virginia counties with large concentrations of federal workers shifted toward Democrats. Over a fifth of voters in CNN’s Virginia exit poll said someone in their household was a federal worker or contractor; of those, 63 percent supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger.

Progressive advocacy groups, Democratic strategists and some of the party’s Senate hopefuls immediately seized on the results as a spine-stiffener for the senators.

“It would be moronic for congressional Democrats to cave after voters said hell no to Trump and his creation of economic pain for Americans. Trump should honor the will of the people and fold,” Adam Green, who co-founded the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said Tuesday night.

A Senate Democratic aide, granted anonymity to discuss caucus deliberations, said “it’s hard for anyone to argue the message from voters is ‘please cave ASAP’ to Trump.” The pressure “will be enormous for moderates to hold the line.”

“This should send a chill down the spines of congressional Republicans and make them realize they need to come to the table if they have any hope of changing the political tides,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said.

© Evan Vucci/AP

For Democrats, Tuesday night felt like 2017 all over again.

All across the country, Democrats won big, from the marquee races to the down-ballot contests. Counties that had shifted right a year ago veered back to the left, and the suburbs that powered Democrats’ massive wins in the first Trump administration came roaring back. Exit polls even showed Democrats improved their margins with non-college educated voters.

The strength of the wins hints at Democrats’ appetite to take on Trump as he ends his first year in office and voters’ concerns about cost of living.

Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill cruised to double-digit victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Two Georgia Democrats flipped seats on the state’s Public Service Commission, the first non-federal statewide wins for a Democrat in nearly two decades. Democrats flipped a pair of Republican-held state Senate seats in Mississippi, cracking the GOP supermajority in a deep-red state. And a successful California ballot measure delivered five additional seats for the party’s House margins ahead of the 2026 midterms, offsetting Texas’ redistricting push.

It was an injection of life into a depleted, depressed Democratic Party that had been cast into the political wilderness by Donald Trump’s decisive victory a year ago. Democrats, locked out of power in Washington, have spent the last year soul-searching and data-digging, as their brand sagged to historic lows.

But they also started to overperform in special elections, hinting that the tide was turning. And on Tuesday, their first big electoral test of the second Trump era, they didn’t just match the wins from eight years ago that had been a harbinger of a blue wave in the 2018 midterms — in several key races, they exceeded them.

“Virginians and voters spoke loud and clear that they're pissed off at the Trump administration,” Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist who worked on the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race. “Democrats came out in record numbers, and this is a foreshadow of what we're going to see next year.”

Democrats rode the traditional, party-out-of-power tailwinds, reenergizing their own base by pushing back on Trump’s second-term policies that have alarmed liberals. Spanberger’s and Sherrill’s messaging on the stagnant economy and affordability crisis helped their party bounce back in its first political test of the second Trump era — and by margins that even surprised some Democrats.

“After brutal losses, like 2024 and 2016, it is hard to trust polling … and your gut of what should happen historically. You can't trust it,” said Stephanie Schriock, a Democratic strategist who formerly led EMILY’s List, a progressive group that elects women. “But everything, the internal polling, the organizations on the ground, the No Kings and Indivisible movement, the energy, it was all there.”

During Trump’s last midterm cycle in 2018, Democrats picked up 40 House seats — and Spanberger and Sherrill were part of that wave.

In Virginia, whose odd-year state elections are often seen as a bellwether ahead of midterms and presidential elections, Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in the House of Delegates. In the attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones won by at least six points, overperforming expectations even as controversy mired his campaign’s final stretch, following revelations of violent text messages. Across the state, virtually every county shifted blue from former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance.

Spanberger’s double-digit victory was powered by a familiar set of voters: While she did better than Democrats from the past decade just about everywhere, her strongest gains were in suburban and exurban Virginia, including Loudoun County. Those are some of the same areas that powered Democrats’ resistance to Trump during his first term, but had drifted toward the GOP during President Joe Biden’s tenure.

In Prince William County, a wealthy enclave outside Washington, Democrat Ralph Northam won by 23 points in 2017; last year, Harris’ margin fell to under 18 points there. Spanberger won it by a whopping nearly 34 points.

And while slightly less dramatic, Spanberger’s strong showing in southeast Virginia could provide hope for Democrats aiming to flip districts held by GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman next year, even before potential changes from a redistricting push to help make that effort easier.

“The mood music is the same soundtrack,” Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist who focuses on House races, said of the comparison to 2018. “A deeply unpopular president, the same one, and a lot of Americans are very concerned about key issues like health care costs spiking.”

In the top races — the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the New York mayoral — all Democrats cleared 50 percent support. The trio of candidates represent both ends of the Democratic spectrum: democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani and traditional moderates Spanberger and Sherill. Republicans are already salivating over the change to turn Mamdani into a boogeyman and tie him to more moderate Democrats across the country.

But Democrats argued “the throughline on all of these races was: talk about affordability,” said David Hogg, a Democratic activist who co-founded Leaders We Deserve, a group focused on electing young people.

“Tomorrow, there are going to be a lot of mischaracterizations and bad faith arguments about how every single policy Zohran ran on here should and will be applied across the country,” Hogg said. “Even if the policies aren't transferrable [among states], what is transferrable are the tactics, listening to voters and not giving bullshit talking points..”  

Democrats’ are still battling a damaged brand, according to NBC News’ exit pollthat showed that more voters in Virginia, New Jersey and California hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party than favorable ones. But the Tuesday elections could inject new energy and focus into a party that has been without for much of the year.

Republicans, already feeling the traditional midterm headwinds, warned Tuesday’s results could portend serious challenges next year. That’s particularly acute without Trump on the ballot, as one national Republican consultant said, because “you get all the damage with none of the benefits.”

Another GOP strategist, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the biggest challenge will be figuring out how to turn out low-propensity Trump voters next year. The most troubling sign for Republicans out of Tuesday’s results were Georgia Democrats’ flips of the two statewide seats in a sleepy Public Service Commission race, the strategist added.

The state’s Senate race next year is almost certain to be among the biggest of the cycle, with Republicans looking to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

"The one thing that would worry me, besides making sure you hold the House, is looking at how Democrats were able to fire up their base in some of these local elections in Georgia,” the strategist said.

💾

© Alex Wong/Getty Images

NEW YORK — The common theme that emerged from Democrats’ trio of wins in New York, New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday was affordability.

For all their ideological differences, Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger found a shared language that aims at the heart of President Donald Trump’s populism: the high cost of everyday life.

Their wins suggest a recalibration of Democratic politics — from moral crusades to kitchen-table math.

Heading into the 2026 midterms, that formula will be hard to ignore. Democrats now have proof that campaigns grounded in affordability and competence can still unite the party’s fractious coalition — from democratic socialists in the nation’s biggest city to centrists in its quintessential suburbs.

“In a big-tent party like this, we're going to have lots of different ideas, lots of different ways to accomplish the same goal, and that's where we're unified,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in an interview ahead of Election Day. “What is Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger running on that’s similar? Affordability.”

The message wasn’t flashy — and it wasn’t new. But in a political landscape that’s been dominated by culture-war battles and Trump’s omnipresence, Democrats found traction by talking about rent, utilities and groceries instead of ideology.

Mamdani’s three main mayoral campaign pledges were simple: Freeze the rent for two million New Yorkers. Fast and free buses. Childcare for all.

The promises from the state assemblymember appealed to a broad swath of New Yorkers. Exorbitant daycare costs are an issue that even some Republicans, like Ivanka Trump, have talked about in recent years but that remains a burden for even well-to-do parents.

While Sherrill, a Democratic member of Congress, often talked about abortion rights in her campaign for governor of New Jersey, it was far from the most prominent issue. Her closing message largely relied on her plan to drive down utility costs — and blaming Trump for wreaking havoc on the economy.

A key plank of her “it’s the economy stupid” campaign turn was promising to declare a state of emergency and freeze utility rates when she takes office. Some progressives weren’t happy that she wasn’t talking more about immigration — an issue that another member of the New Jersey congressional delegation is now being prosecuted after taking on — but it didn’t matter.

Garden State Democrats knew that Trump drew in some of their core voters — Black and Hispanic voters — with promises about the economy during the 2024 campaign. But Sherrill bet that she could bring them back into the fold by pointing out how he hasn’t delivered.

Spanberger — a congressional Democrat like Sherrill — also resisted any temptation to center her Virginia gubernatorial campaign on the latest controversies from the White House and instead stuck to an economic message, specifically the cost of life for Virginians. Exit polls showed that was the top issue for voters by a wide margin, followed by health care.

The question now is whether Democrats can sustain that balance once governing — and inflation, housing costs and Trump’s shadow — put it to the test.

In their victory speeches, the trio hewed closely to their campaign messages.

In Brooklyn, Mamdani said that his election was a "mandate for a city you can afford.”

Though Sherrill closed her victory speech in East Brunswick by echoing the language of the “No Kings” protests, much of her speech was focused on New Jersey’s motto — “Liberty and Prosperity.”

“Liberty alone is not enough if the government makes it impossible for you to feed your family, to get a good education or to get a good job,” Sherrill said.

In Richmond, Spanberger said voters “chose leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most: lowering costs, keeping our communities safe and strengthening our economy for every Virginian.”

Former President Barack Obama, who campaigned this weekend for Sherrill and Spanberger, said during his New Jersey stop that people voted for Trump and Republicans “because they were, understandably, frustrated with inflation and high gas prices and the difficulty of affording a home, and they were worried about their children’s futures.”

“Now, nine months later, you’ve got to ask yourself, has any of that gotten better?” Obama asked.

Voters seem to think not.

Daniel Han and Liz Crampton contributed to this report.

© Bing Guan for POLITICO

Jay Jones, the Democrats’ scandal-plagued attorney general nominee who sparked a Republican-led backlash over violent text messages, secured victory in what turned into a high-profile race in Virginia’s statewide electoral contests Tuesday.

Spurred largely by anti-Donald Trump sentiments among voters, Jones defeated Republican Jason Miyares, the incumbent in the race who the GOP put much of its political capital in protecting. Republicans hoped the public outrage over Jones’ 2022 texts — where he detailed the hypothetical killing of a GOP lawmaker — would be enough to all but disqualify him from winning the post.

"To everyone who didn’t give up on this campaign: I say thank you," Jones said Tuesday night. “I will protect our jobs, our health care and our economy from Donald Trump’s attacks.”

Jones had been leading Miyares in polling as the final month of campaigning approached. But the contest took a dramatic turn after the National Review reported that Jones sent to a colleague three years ago a series of texts that included “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head” — a reference to then-Virginia GOP House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The comments were quickly condemned by the party, but the scandal broke after Virginia’s 45-day early voting period began, leaving the party little recourse but to keep him on the ticket rather than ask him to step aside.

Republicans used Jones to attack Spanberger and openly questioned whether she could effectively lead the state if she was unwilling to speak out forcefully and call for a down-ballot candidate to end his bid. She condemned Jones’ text messages as “abhorrent” but refused to rescind her endorsement. Jones later expressed regret for sending the texts.

That left Jones, who makes history as Virginia’s first Black attorney general, to fend for himself. While some Democrats embraced him in the final days of the campaign including both Democratic Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine at a get-out-the-vote rally in Norfolk — the event’s headliners, Spanberger and former President Barack Obama, made no mention of him at all.

Miyares, who has ties to Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, took advantage of his incumbency and lapped Jones in fundraising. He gave Republicans hope, even before the scandal, that he could be the party’s best chance at blocking Democrats attempts at a clean sweep of the top statewide offices.

“As much as I love Abigail, the most important position this year is the attorney general's race,” said Del. Joshua Cole, a Democrat in Virginia’s General Assembly. “In Trump's America, we need a Democratic attorney general, and the Republicans know that. That’s why they [pulled] out all the stops” for Miyares.

But the text messages weren’t the only issue Republicans hit Jones with. He also faced renewed criticism over a years-old reckless driving charge where he was caught driving 116 mph in a 70 mph zone and struck a deal to forgo jail time by paying a fine and performing community service. Jones reportedly completed some of those community service hours while working at his own political action committee, giving Miyares and his Republican allies more material to paint Jones as being “above the law.”

Jones’ texting scandal had the potential to drag down other Democrats. During an interview on “Next Question with Katie Couric” last month Spanberger lamented having to repeatedly answer questions about Jones.

“The fact that I have to spend even a moment's time talking about somebody else's text messages from years ago, rather than what I want to do as governor, is something that I am deeply unhappy about,” Spanberger said on the podcast. Weeks prior during the lone gubernatorial debate, Spanberger said about Jones texts: “The voters now have the information, and it is up to voters to make an individual choice based on this information.”

Trump also sought to tie Spanberger to Jones.

“Radical Left Lunatic, Jay Jones, who is running against Jason Miyares, the GREAT Attorney General in Virginia, made SICK and DEMENTED jokes…” the president wrote in a Truth Social post, giving his full endorsement to Miyares. “Abigail Spanberger, who is running for Governor, is weak and ineffective, and refuses to acknowledge what this Lunatic has done,” he wrote in early October.

While Republicans zeroed in on the Jones texts in the closing stretch, calling the attorney general race a “referendum on decency," some Democrats pushed back on that line of attack before Tuesday night.

“Show me one of them that stood up and chastised Donald Trump about January 6, about saying that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody,” said Susan Swecker, a Democratic National Committee member and former chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia last week. “Don't be coming over to my party and lecturing me about something that our nominee for attorney general did.”

Jones’ texting scandal, along with Maine Senate Democratic candidate Graham Platner coming under attack for previous social media posts, provides fresh challenges to DNC Chair Ken Martin.

He acknowledged in an interview with POLITICO Sunday evening that improving vetting of candidates in the future is something the party will have to evaluate.

“It's not up to the DNC and to the party a chair to decide what's disqualifying or not,” Martin said. “We all are gonna have to do a much better job of vetting our candidates as we move forward.”

© Mike Kropf/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP

Political cartoons from the desk of Matt Wuerker

Political cartoons from the desk of Matt Wuerker

Donald Trump has been uncharacteristically distant from some of this year’s highest-profile races, going as far as bolstering a flailing Democrat in his hometown mayor’s contest while never uttering the name of Virginia’s Republican candidate for governor.

The endorser-in-chief has mostly avoided the marquee gubernatorial races across the Potomac in Virginia or in New Jersey, where he spends summer weekends golfing at his Bedminster club. He hasn’t set foot in either state for one of his signature campaign rallies. His muted approach is a departure from his usual impulse to throw himself into races across the country, and a sign he tacitly acknowledges Democrats’ relative strength in the first major election since he reassumed the White House.

Off-year elections prove an early assessment of each party’s standing heading into the following year’s midterms, when the tide generally turns from the party occupying the White House.

At times, Trump has seemed most interested in the mayoral race in his native New York City — a far less competitive race that democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears poised to win.

While the president has yet to mention Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by name, and only recently waded back into the New Jersey governor's race to reiterate his support for the GOP contender, in New York City, he all but endorsed Andrew Cuomo — a Democrat forced to run as an independent after losing the primary. Trump warned in a Monday night Truth Social post of Mamdani and disparaging Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

And in California, where voters will decide on a ballot measure allowing Democrats to redraw congressional maps, Trump has not catalyzed any major effort to counteract Gov. Gavin Newsom’s well-funded campaign — even as the White House aggressively pushes redistricting in red states across the country.

“The president has the ability to drive people out like we've never seen in American political history, both for him and against him,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist. “But right now he is not on the ballot, so I think the enthusiasm to go out for his supporters might be a little less, whereas the opposition is equal, if not even more engaged.”

Trump, who readily muses about wanting to pick winners and over the last few days has endorsed dozens of Republicans, understands the potential positive impact of his explicit backing and often wields that power. Perhaps more saliently, he seems to know where his support can do more harm than help. In these two blue–but-GOP-curious states, Trump has toed that line — and likely will continue to until the polls close.

“My take is that those are blue states. It is only interesting when they occasionally have a streak of red,” Bartlett said of Virginia and New Jersey. “So, I just think those should not be in play, maybe ever, certainly now with Trump in the White House.”

In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill by single digits, has the awkward task of embracing the president’s support to consolidate the right without alienating a fairly moderate statewide electorate.

“Jack Ciattarelli is a WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump wrote in a mid-May social media post ahead of the primary. Ciattarelli, who was once critical of Trump, rocketed to the nomination the following month.

In the general election, he’s taken a different tack.

Ciattarelli has in some ways fashioned himself as a MAGA-style Republican, participating in a rally on the Jersey Shore with prominent Trump surrogates. Only one notable attendee was missing: Trump.

"You need to max out the Trump coalition as much as you possibly can, but also don't ignore voters who don't give Trump the time of the day," said Jesse Hunt, a former communications director for the Republican Governors Association. "You may need to have voters with negative opinions of Trump to cross over for Jack."

Democrats have used nearly every opportunity to remind voters of Ciattarelli's alliance with Trump, pointing to a comment he made in a recent debate in which he awarded Trump an "A" rating.

Trump reentered the fray last month on Ciattarelli’s behalf, reiterating his endorsement in another social media post, and hosted an October telerally urging New Jerseyans to reject Sherrill. The White House announced a second telerally for Ciattarelli on the eve of the election. Even then, the Ciattarelli campaign did not publicly advise the president would be dialing into the Garden State.

“Now that you have Trump in the White House, New Jersey will continue to be ‘Blue Jersey,’ I would expect,” Bartlett said.

In Virginia, another high-profile race is soon to be decided and Trump has notably kept his distance.

Earle-Sears, the state’s Republican lieutenant governor, has struggled to accrue momentum in her race to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Polling averages consistently show her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the blue-leaning state. She’s shaken up her campaign staff to improve her lagging fundraising and electoral prospects, and local Republicans have voiced concerns about the strength of her candidacy.

Trump never endorsed Earle-Sears by name, merely telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Oct. 20: "Well, I think the Republican candidate is very good and I think she should win because the Democrat candidate's a disaster."

One person close to the White House, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the president’s positioning, said, “If she had made it more of a race, it would’ve gotten more attention from him.”

The person posited that a Trump bump could not make up the “delta” of support between Earle-Sears and Spanberger. A late October poll conducted by the Washington Post and George Mason University showed Spanberger up with a 12 point lead over Winsome-Sears.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment about the president’s 2025 election strategy.

But Republicans haven’t lost all hope in Virginia.

Trump has made note of their strongest statewide down-ballot candidate, Attorney General Jason Miayres, who appears to have a shot at keeping his seat following a leaked text thread showing rival Democrat Jay Jones musing about shooting political adversaries. Recent polls show the two locked in a tight race.

Knocking Jones in a Truth Social post, Trump called Miyares “a GREAT Attorney General” who has his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

He also held a separate, last-minute telerally for the Republican slate Monday night — only advised by the White House.

For now, Trump seems to be more focused on elections beyond 2025 — and even the 2026 midterms. He’s mentioned Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his potential successors in the next presidential election. He went as far as suggesting that the two would make an “unstoppable” ticket.

As for himself: “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.”

Madison Fernandez contributed to this report.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

Former President George W. Bush paid tribute to his late vice president, Dick Cheney, on Tuesday, calling him “a patriot who brought integrity, high intelligence, and seriousness of purpose to every position he held.” ⁣

“Dick was a calm and steady presence in the White House amid great national challenges,” Bush wrote. “I counted on him for his honest, forthright counsel, and he never failed to give his best. He held to his convictions and prioritized the freedom and security of the American people.”

Cheney, who served as Bush’s powerful right-hand man in the Oval Office from 2001 to 2009, died due to complications from pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease, his family said in a statement Tuesday morning. He was 84.

And even though the pair’s relationship was strained toward the end of their time in the White House — due in large part to Bush’s refusal to pardon Cheney’s chief of staff, Scooter Libby — the former president hailed Cheney as “among the finest public servants of his generation.”

“For those two terms in office, and throughout his remarkable career, Dick Cheney’s service always reflected credit on the country he loved,” Bush wrote.

One key Republican who has remained conspicuously silent in the hours since Cheney’s death was announced is President Donald Trump. Cheney’s twilight in American politics was marked by his opposition to the president.

“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” he said in 2022 campaign advertisement for his daughter, Liz Cheney, another Trump foil. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He is a coward. A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters.”

But many Republicans, even some who backed Trump in the aftermath of his failed bid to remain in the White House after losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, offered their condolences.

“Vice President Cheney dedicated his life to serving our nation,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a key Trump ally, said in a post on X. “He was known for his love of his family and his country. Ann and I are praying for the Cheney family and all who knew him during this time.”

Casting Trump as a historic threat to democracy, Cheney threw his support behind another former vice president, Kamala Harris, in the 2024 election.

Their stand saw the Cheneys effectively run out of GOP politics, with Trump winning the general election last November and continuing to reshape the party in his image in the months since returning to the Oval Office.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

But other key Republicans paid their respects Tuesday.

“As our nation mourns the loss of former Vice President Dick Cheney, we honor his devotion to serving our nation,” Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), the fourth-ranking House Republican, said on X. “My prayers are with the Cheney family during this difficult time.”

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in a statement that Cheney, who grew up in Casper, Wyoming, would be remembered as “a towering figure who helped guide the course of history” in the state.

“From high school football star to White House Chief of Staff, Congressman, Secretary of Defense, and Vice President, Dick’s career has few peers in American life,” Barrasso wrote. “His unflinching leadership shaped many of the biggest moments in domestic and U.S. foreign policy for decades.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) called Cheney “a true public servant & proud American.”

“Dick served our country w distinction in various roles over many decades incl as Vice President of the United States,” he wrote.

Miles Taylor, a former senior administration official during Trump’s first term who is now facing an investigation spurred by the president, applauded Cheney’s stand against Trump in a post on X.

“His last act of public service was to defy the GOP as a vocal critic of Donald Trump,” he wrote. “That took guts. Farewell, Angler.”

© Charles Dharapak/AP