Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett declared a U.S. Senate run on Monday, jolting an already contentious Democratic primary as the party banks on flipping the reliably red state in its push to retake control of Congress’ upper chamber.

Crockett, a two-term representative from Dallas, will challenge state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the Democratic Party. Despite polling suggesting an uphill battle, Democrats feel optimistic about winning statewide in Texas for the first time in decades by harnessing the same backlash to President Donald Trump that fueled their successful off-cycle elections last month. In 2018, the party caught a glimmer of hope when Beto O’Rourke came within 2 points of defeating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in a blue wave.

Former Rep. Colin Allred, the first Democrat to get into the race, dropped out on Monday ahead of Crockett’s announcement, citing a desire to avoid a messy primary and the likelihood of a runoff that would be triggered if no candidate receives a majority of the first round of votes in the March 3 primary. It was Allred's second attempt at a Senate run: He lost to Cruz in 2024 by more than 8 percentage points.

“For too long, Texas has elected Senators who have defended politics as usual and protected the status quo, while Texans have paid the price,” Crockett said on her campaign website. “We’ve had Senators who have pushed the American Dream further and further out of reach.”

“I’m running for the United States Senate because I believe Texas deserves a Senator who will be an independent voice for all 30 million Texans – not a rubber stamp or party line vote for Donald Trump."

Ahead of the rally, Crockett released a 45-second video with audio of Trump calling her “the new star” of the Democratic party and a “very low IQ person.”

In recent weeks, Crockett publicly debated whether to jump in, saying she would only do so if polling showed she could win. She has said she believes she can expand the electorate in Texas, a formidable task given the state’s entrenched Republican politics and rightward shift in 2024, including in former Democratic strongholds along the border. She’ll kick off with an event Monday afternoon in Dallas.

Crockett will be able to draw on a national profile and strong fundraising network. As a House member in a solidly blue district, she raised more than $6.5 million as of the end of September, largely online from small-dollar donors, and had $4.6 million in her campaign account — funds that can immediately be used to propel her Senate run.

Crockett is known for going head to head against GOP rivals, and has attracted criticism for some of her comments, such as calling wheelchair-bound Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “hot wheels.” She also referred to GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as having a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch body” during a House Oversight Committee hearing.

Some Texas Democrats said they believe Crockett brings a shot of enthusiasm – and her assertiveness is what the Democratic electorate is clamoring for. “We need some out loud, bold progressives, and that's what people like about her,” said Allison Campolo, chairwoman of the Tarrant County Democratic Party. “She doesn't shy away from anything. She doesn't run to the middle.”

Crockett has faced obstacles in the House, coming up short in a bid for a caucus leadership position and for Democrats’ top position on the Oversight Committee. Now her Senate bid is causing some musical chairs in the House, brought on by the Texas GOP’s new gerrymander. Her decision to run for Senate wards off one potentially tough member-on-member primary for her current seat, but Allred’s switch to vie for a recently redrawn House seat against Rep. Julie Johnson is forcing another messy primary in a safe blue district.

Republicans say Crockett’s combative reputation will disqualify her among moderate Texans. Sen. John Cornyn has been goading Crockett into the race, and his campaign believes she will be easily defeated in a general election. Cornyn told reporters Monday that he thinks Crockett wins the primary "but she's the worst possible candidate they can have in Texas."

But first Cornyn would have to survive a packed and bloody Republican primary. And his vulnerability among conservative primary voters who question his MAGA bonafides has Democrats frothing at the opportunity to flip the seat. He’s up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a far-right firebrand who’s often considered the frontrunner since launching his campaign in April. Rep. Wesley Hunt jumped into the race in October, essentially guaranteeing the early March primary will go to a runoff.

Democrats are staking their hopes of flipping Texas on a continued GOP split — and the possibility of Paxton, whom they view as a weaker candidate, advancing to the general election.

Crockett told the Dallas Morning News last week that she had called Allred and Talarico to discuss polling she had commissioned showing she could win the election. Talarico’s campaign said she never actually shared the survey when they spoke. Talarico has achieved fame for his liberal view of Christianity and involvement in a walkout staged by Texas state lawmakers over Republicans gerrymandering a congressional map at Trump’s request.

“Our movement is rooted in unity over division — so we welcome Congresswoman Crockett into this race,” Talarico said in a statement.

The biggest question facing Crockett is whether she’ll be able to translate her popularity in Dallas statewide, said Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist.

“I appreciate her scrappiness and abilities to go toe to toe with her detractors. She is quick witted and quite the firebrand,” he said. “Her key challenge will be getting the other urban and suburban voters in other cities to appreciate what she brings to the party.”

Jordain Carney contributed reporting.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred ended his Senate run on Monday as challenger Jasmine Crockett prepares to announce her likely bid for the seat that has long eluded Democrats.

Allred instead declared his intention to run for Congress in Rep. Julie Johnson’s seat. A resident of Dallas, he was making his second attempt to unseat a Texas Republican in the Senate after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024.

Allred was facing the possibility of a crowded Democratic primary: He was already up against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the Democratic Party. Allred lagged in fundraising behind Talarico, and Crockett – an outspoken member with a strong national profile – would also prove to be a formidable challenger.

Allred, in a statement, said he wanted to avoid a messy Senate primary and will instead run for Congress in the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District, which had its lines redrawn after the U.S. Supreme Court last week allowed Texas to use a new GOP-friendly map drawn this year. His switch comes on the final day candidates can file to run in Texas for the March primary.

A bruising primary is taking place on the Republican side: Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt are dueling for the GOP nomination.

“In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlikkers Paxton, Cornyn or Hunt,” he said in a statement. “That’s why I’ve made the difficult decision to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate.”

Democrats need to net four seats to regain control of the Senate — a tough task that they believe was made easier by their sweeping success around the country on Election Day last month.

© Tony Gutierrez/AP

In breaking ranks to end the federal government shutdown this week, Nevada’s two Democratic senators showcased the shifting politics of the once solidly blue state, home to a diverse, working-class population that relies heavily on tourism.

In the national battle for party expansion, Republicans have the edge in the Silver State.

Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen joined an octet of members in the Senate Democratic Caucus who backed ending the shutdown. Their home state politics made their gambit an electoral calculation and an economic necessity, even as it angered some Nevada Democrats, according to interviews with more than a dozen political strategists, staffers and elected officials in the state.

“Nevada isn't a blue state — it's a swing state with a Democratic lean and a Republican trend line,” said Mike Noble, a pollster who focuses on the Southwest. “Both senators are reading the room, and brinksmanship doesn't play well with the middle.”

The GOP advantage in Nevada has been building for several years. Republicans overtook Democrats in voter registration for the first time in nearly two decades this year, the result of a dedicated campaign from the Nevada Republican Party. Polls show GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo with a slight lead in his reelection bid, which will be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races next year. And Republicans are trying to flip Democrats’ three House seats in Nevada next year. In 2024, Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the state in 20 years, beating Kamala Harris by 3.1 points, while Rosen won reelection by just 1 point.

"Nevada has really tightened up," said Robert Uithoven, a GOP strategist from the state .

Republicans and Democrats are fiercely courting Nevada’s working class. In 2024, Trump appealed to the state’s service, hospitality and construction industries with promises to end taxes on tips and overtime — both policies that were passed in the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill.” And his campaign also made significant investment in reaching Latinos, who make up one in five registered voters.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that the sluggish economy, GOP-backed health care cuts and aggressive deportations under Trump will help them win back anxious Nevadans.

“If you hear someone who is saying we are not going to tax your tips, that's compelling,” said Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill, who is running in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. “That economic message is consistently what we need to drive home as Democrats and get away from that corporate message."

Nevada’s economy is tethered to the tourism industry, fueled by hourly wage hospitality workers. The state has seen a massive downturn in travel this year after major post-pandemic increases, which — coupled with a sharp drop-off in construction jobs — sparked concern among economists and local officials, who largely gauge the health of the local economy on its tourism industry.

The state’s heavy reliance on federal aid also makes it more susceptible to partisan swings. The freeze on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program resulting from the government shutdown hurt the 15 percent of Nevadans who receive SNAP benefits, among the highest shares of any state. And recent disruptions around air travel significantly affected flights coming and going from Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas. On Saturday, the airport recorded 198 flight delays.

Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the politically influential Culinary Union, praised the two senators for “clearly fighting for working-class folks” but noted that now is the time to “get the government going and get the benefits moving.”

“At the end of the day, it's about who is going to be in the corner of working-class folks,” he said. “The Democrats' ship has been wandering the last few years, and the voters have been very clear about that.”

Both Cortez Masto and Rosen signaled they sided with Republicans on ending the shutdown because of its severe effects on workers. Cortez Masto, who also voted to end the shutdown over a month ago, defended her recent vote by citing the pinch felt by small businesses and other workers. Rosen, meanwhile, said she hit a breaking point in recent days as she saw the effect of “fully withholding SNAP benefits and gutting our tourism industry by grinding air travel to a halt.”

“How do you stay the course when people are rummaging through the trash for food because Donald Trump took away their SNAP benefits?” said one Rosen aide, granted anonymity to speak openly. “At some point, you’re hurting the people you’re trying to help by not putting an end to the Trump cruelty.”

Rosen is up for reelection in 2030; Cortez Masto in 2028.

Scott Gavorsky, the GOP Elko County chair, predicted the senators would have dealt with blowback from voters had they prolonged the shutdown, especially in areas that have trended to the right, like in the rural region he represents that helped Lombardo flip the governorship in 2022. “Memories are long out here,” he said.

But the pair is already facing backlash. Some Nevada Democrats voiced frustration with their decision to break from the caucus after Democrats stuck together for over a month.

Democratic State Assemblymember Selena La Rue Hatch said she’s heard from many constituents in her swing district in Washoe County, which encompasses Reno, over their “concern about whether we are actually putting the brakes on a reckless authoritarian administration.”

“I have heard overwhelming shock and dismay and concern that we have now given up the fight, and what are we getting out of it?” she said.

A Democratic state party strategist, granted anonymity to speak freely, called the agreement with Republicans to vote on extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits at the heart of Democrats’ shutdown negotiations a bonus.

“At the end of the day it isn't focused on political tactics, it’s focused on ending this pain,” the strategist said.

The tourism-dependent state experienced the nation’s highest unemployment rates during the 2008 recession and 2020 pandemic shutdown, after it had become one of the fastest-growing economies in the nation from 1970 to 2008.

Trump’s 2015 ascent came just in time to exploit Nevadans’ lingering pessimism, said Andrew Woods, the director of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ Center for Business and Economic Research. Then, when Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak shut down Nevada’s casinos for 78 days during the 2020 pandemic, the state’s unemployment rate ballooned again, reaching 28 percent in April 2020.

“That sense of security was taken away,” Woods said. “It made the state purple.”

Republicans are making a big play in Nevada in next year’s midterms, hoping to flip three seats including the one held by Democrat Susie Lee, who represents many workers on the Las Vegas strip.

But Trump’s Nevada victory was fueled by economic dissatisfaction, and recent polling suggests Nevadans aren’t much more satisfied now. In an October poll from Noble Predictive Insights, 50 percent of respondents said the state is worse now than it was four years ago, and just 24 percent said it is better. Their top issues were affordable housing and inflation.

“The electorate is definitely more driven by economic anxiety than ideology these days,” said Mike Noble, the pollster.

© Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP

In Virginia, it’s Republicans’ turn to be lost in the wilderness, and they’re spreading blame for their drubbing.

Many say lackluster gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears was deeply flawed and didn’t focus enough on the economy. Some accuse popular GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin of failing to use more of his war chest to boost candidates. Others complain that the state party failed to employ an aggressive strategy — and a group of county party chairs is considering calling for the resignation of the Virginia Republican Party chair.

Basically, they blame everyone but President Donald Trump.

“They just smoked us. I mean, gosh, they wiped us off the map,” said Tim Anderson, a Republican who lost a House of Delegates race in the battleground Virginia Beach. “It's going to take four years to rebuild what happened on Tuesday.”

Anderson, who was elected to the House in 2021, said Earle-Sears’ lack of a “motivational message that excited voters to get off the couch” doomed Republicans running at every level, who were already facing political headwinds caused by DOGE-inflicted federal job losses, along with the government shutdown.

It’s a warning sign for Republicans across the nation ahead of the 2026 races, especially without Trump atop the ballot. The GOP lost decisively Tuesday in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia, including in some reliably red areas — a shellacking that signals problems for the party as Democrats turn out in droves against Trump and his policies. Democrats are simultaneously trying to move past their own intraparty turmoil and continue hammering America’s affordability problem.

“The economy was the No. 1 issue,” said former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a Republican. “And having people talking about trans rights and the like isn't what was moving the needle. [The message] needed to address the economy at this point, and I think the administration and Republican Congress need to give that focus to get this midterm under control.”

In the final weeks of the campaign, Earle-Sears blanketed the airwaves with ads characterizing Spanberger as being for “they/them”, echoing messaging from Trump’s 2024 campaign.

A spokesperson for Earle-Sears did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

Virginia Republicans were already bracing for a tough November, given that the state’s off-year elections are traditionally a repudiation of the party in power in Washington and Trump lost Virginia by five points in 2024. Their predicament worsened when the president levied global tariffs, hurting rural areas of Virginia that rely on manufacturing and agriculture. Add to that cuts to the state’s federal workforce under the Department of Government Efficiency and the longest shutdown in U.S. history, and the party’s situation became dire.

“The majority of Virginia voters don’t like the president, and many of them have a visceral hatred for him and his governing style,” said DJ Jordan, a GOP strategist referring to Democratic voters who served as chief of staff for Jason Miyares, the attorney general who lost to a scandal-clad Democrat on Tuesday. Jordan was referring to Democratic voters.

Republicans are still unwilling to criticize Trump or his policies, but some conceded that the Democratic base was energized in opposition to the president.

“The state is a blue state, and the fact that we were running while Republicans are in the White House, history shows that that is not a recipe for success,” said a Republican strategist who was involved in the races and was granted anonymity to speak freely.

But Tuesday’s results dealt a deeper blow to the party than anticipated. Earle-Sears, who lagged in fundraising and never earned Trump’s direct endorsement, lost to Abigail Spanberger by 15 points, the largest victory by a Democrat in Virginia in decades and a bigger margin than most polls predicted. Though he fell short of victory, Miyares — the party’s best hope at pulling off an upset — brought in some ticket-splitters after Democrat Jay Jones was dragged down by a texting scandal.

“This blew past our worst case scenario of everything,” said a Republican who worked on some of the races.

In perhaps the biggest setback for the party’s long-term future, the GOP lost 13 seats in the House of Delegates, putting Democrats on a glide path to enact their agenda in Richmond — including mid-cycle redistricting to counter Trump’s push to make congressional maps more favorable to Republicans. Five of those state seats won by Democrats went for Trump in 2024, a sign of dissatisfaction among some Republican voters.

“They should have seen this coming,” said Loudoun County GOP Chair Scott Pio, who believes the party should have focused more on converting new voters than simply turning out the base. “Their strategy was quite ineffective and it shows. Now Virginia is a terribly blue state.”

Loudoun County is often considered an exurban swing county in the state.

Some Republicans’ ire extended to Youngkin, who enjoys high favorability and is prohibited by state law from seeking a consecutive term. One GOP strategist predicted that any hopes the governor has to run for president in 2028 will likely suffer because of the widespread losses.

“It’s wholly inaccurate that the governor did not spend his time, energy and significant resources on these races,” said Justin Discigil, a top Youngkin adviser.

Another cited early warning signs, like lack of a ground game and insufficient outreach to rural voters, who make up the party’s base.

“Everyone will want to blame Winsome. That's fine, if that's how they want to publicly spin,” one of the strategists said. “Everyone needs to take a serious look and realize that that is not at all the full story. The full story is we were too excited on our own brand and forgot to run a campaign up and down the ballot.”

Other Republicans dismiss any criticism that Youngkin did not do enough for the GOP ticket. He made multiple appearances on behalf of the candidates and donated close to $750,000 to Earle-Sears and $140,000 to Miyares, along with $100,000 to John Reid,the lieutenant governor whom he called on to drop out of the race over lewd photos posted online allegedly linked to him.

Pio, the Loudoun County Party chair, blamed a muddled strategy in rebuke of the state party chair, whom he is pushing to resign.

“They want to play the get out the vote game on Election Day and don't want to convert new voters,” Pio said.

Mark Peake, the chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, responded that it's not the job of the state party to set campaign strategy or run individual races — rather its purpose is to provide infrastructure, like data.

“A unit chair complaining that RPV didn't do enough to win the election — it's kind of like an offensive line coach complaining about the head coach not scoring enough points,” he said. Peake, who came into his role in April, said he has no intention of resigning.

Despite the sniping, Republicans are banking on Democrats pursuing a progressive agenda in Richmond that will alienate moderate voters.

“We can go on offense now — we can absolutely smack them upside the head every day,” said a Republican involved with the House races. “They caught the car and let's see what they do with it."

© Francis Chung/POLITICO

In Wisconsin, Democrats are launching nearly 400 canvassing events this weekend focused on health care. A major liberal advocacy group, Protect Our Care, will push a six-figure digital campaign. Top Democratic governors, including Kentucky’s Andy Beshear and Laura Kelly of Kansas, are holding press calls to “to slam D.C. Republicans for causing Americans’ health care premiums to skyrocket.”

It adds up to a campaign of doomsday messaging aimed at voters’ concerns about health care as premium spikes are due to arrive.

“November 1st is a health care cliff for the American people, and I think it's also a political cliff for Republicans,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of Protect Our Care, a liberal nonprofit that has hosted a dozen town halls with House Democrats throughout the country on the impending premium increases. “More and more people are paying attention to it.”

In the coming days, Democrats will launch ad buys, hold town halls and convene media appearances to highlight the Nov. 1 date when Americans must choose to purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace with higher premiums or forgo it altogether, an attempt to ensure Republicans shoulder the blame for rising health care costs.

Some of the tactics, like the DNC holding a call with former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are routine. But others are more national in scope, including Protect Our Care is deploying a digital search advertising campaign that targets people who are researching their ACA health care plans online with ads blaming Republicans. Those ads will run in House districts held by vulnerable Republicans in Arizona, Iowa, New York and Pennsylvania, among other places.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also has an upcoming ad scheduled to run in 35 competitive House districts starting this weekend. The four-figure digital buy shows Speaker Mike Johnson on vacation — a reference to the House being in recess for six weeks amid the looming insurance hikes.

In the days leading up to Nov. 1, Democratic governors have described how the hikes could devastate Americans. On Monday, outgoing Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers released the 2026 plan outlining rates for the state’s individual marketplace, which showed that many premiums for individuals and families will double. Some seniors will face an increase of more than $30,000 per year. Nationally, on average, out-of-pocket premium payments for subsidized ACA enrollees will be 114 percent higher without the tax credits, according to KFF, a health care research group.

“Republicans’ reckless decisions are causing prices on everything to go up,” Evers said in a statement. “Republicans need to end this chaos and stop working to make healthcare more expensive. It’s that simple.”

Republicans on Capitol Hill have refused to engage in health care negotiations with Democrats until the government reopens, and many within the GOP are resistant to extending the tax credits at all. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would meet “soon” with Democrats to discuss an appropriations agreement, which would amount to the most high-level meeting to end the shutdown that will soon enter its second month.

In Virginia and New Jersey, where voters will cast ballots next week in off-year bellwether elections, the Democratic candidates for governor have made combating rising costs central to their campaigns — tying that message to the looming ACA hikes. It's an early road test of a message the party will hammer leading up to the midterms: President Donald Trump and Republicans in Washington have made life more expensive.

Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for Virginia governor, has highlighted how out-of-pocket costs could be two to more than five times higher for families who purchase insurance through the ACA exchange, and those hikes could force thousands of people to go uninsured. Spanberger this week toured a rural hospital in southwest Virginia that stands to feel the effects of the Trump administration’s tax law that slashes Medicaid.

In Wisconsin, a battleground state that backed Trump by under 1 point last year, Democrats are launching hundreds of canvassing operations focused on subsidy cuts, and are planning messaging billboards as well. This weekend, as Wisconsinites see tangible increases in their premiums, Democratic Party Chair Devin Remiker said, “the objective reality is going to hit people in a way that you can't talking point your way out of, if you're the Republican Party.”

Wisconsin Republicans aren’t planning to spend money in response, however. State GOP Chair Brian Schimming says Democrats are going to hang themselves by tying the subsidy cuts to the shutdown.

“I think they're putting a massive, massive bet on not just the shutdown, but on getting people to think that the shutdown is … Republicans’ fault,” he said.

Natalie Fertig contributed to this report.

© Timothy D. Easley/AP

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s federally-focused campaign against vaccines is entering a new phase with allies intent on rolling back school and health care facility mandates.

Anti-vaccines advocates are now targeting Louisiana, Texas and Idaho, where they are pushing red state governors to follow Florida’s lead in removing requirements in schools for students to get certain shots. But those advocates, emboldened by recent victories in state legislatures, face steep political obstacles within their own party that will reveal how far GOP state leaders are willing to go to support the anti-vaccine wing of the Republican party.

That test for Republican governors and state lawmakers comes as the vaccine debate crescendos in Washington this week, with the charged testimony of ousted Centers for Disease Control and Prevention head Susan Monarez and the anticipated weakening of vaccine recommendations from its advisors. Kennedy had previously changed federal guidance advising Americans six months and older to get an annual Covid shot. The new guidance recommends it only for elderly people and those with underlying health conditions.

“They're not going to want to run against the president's policies, on one hand, but on the other hand, they also don't want to eliminate the constituency which supports childhood vaccines,” Dorit Reiss, an attorney specializing in vaccine policy, said of the choice Republicans face. “So I think they're going to have to sit down and do some math in an area that's full of landmines.”

In Louisiana, lobbyists are planning to reintroduce a “medical freedom” bill that failed last year to ban vaccine mandates, but expanded to include schools.

“We feel like the climate is ready for it,” said Jill Hines, co-director of the anti-vaccine group Health Freedom Louisiana. “That conversation has already started with Florida’s foot in the door.”

In the Lone Star state – where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott capitalized on outrage over pandemic restrictions – Jackie Schlegel, president of anti-vaccine group Texans for Medical Freedom, promised “sweeping reforms in Texas in the coming years.”

“Putting parents as the sole decision maker and not the CDC or local school districts is what our legislators are talking about,” she added.

And Idaho lawmakers are expected to build upon an expansive “medical freedom” bill enacted earlier this year that prohibits businesses and schools from mandating “medical interventions,” including vaccines, although it allows for some exemptions.

But the politics of undoing vaccine requirements in schools – mandates that health experts credit with keeping injection rates high – are complicated. Polling shows Americans — including most Republicans — broadly support such mandates for schoolchildren. President Donald Trump’s own pollster warned Republicans against mistaking opposition to Covid shots among Republicans “as evidence that Republican voters are against all vaccinations. To do so would be folly.”

Yet the MAHA movement – which includes people who share Kennedy’s skepticism of vaccine safety – has emerged as a powerful force within the GOP, broadening the party’s tent and motivating some voters to turn out for Trump. Mothers comprise a large component of the MAHA coalition, and recent polling conducted by Bellwether Research revealed that nearly a quarter of women surveyed don’t believe vaccines administered in the U.S. are generally safe.

Months out from legislative sessions resuming across the country, no other state lawmaker or official has yet to step forward with plans to replicate Florida’s approach. But public health experts are fearful that Gov. Ron DeSantis could still set off a domino effect in GOP states. Florida is the first state to take sweeping executive action to remove school mandates, with its health department moving forward with rules to end requirements for four vaccines, including chickenpox. Removing mandates for measles and polio would require action from the state legislature.

“I would imagine that other red states are looking at this and trying to make an assessment about whether they want to follow Florida's lead,” said Jennifer Kates, senior vice president at KFF, a health research group. “I don't think it's the end of the story.”

Following the pandemic, GOP states ushered in a wave of legislation allowing more exemptions to school vaccine mandates for religious or even personal beliefs. Pursuing outright bans in schools or medical facilities has long been anti-vaxxers’ on wishlists; now they believe Kennedy’s posture fosters a favorable political environment.

Aaron Siri, a vaccine injury lawyer who provides counsel for the Informed Consent Action Network, an anti-vaccine group that writes model state legislation, said “mandates are the tool of bullies, criminals and dictators.”

Like-minded groups may have trouble finding state lawmakers to propose their desired legislation though. Some legislators who have championed easing state requirements believe they’ve achieved most of what is politically feasible.

Louisiana Rep. Kathy Edmonston credited Kennedy’s MAHA movement for launching “a whole new way to look at public health.” But the Republican, who sponsored laws signed by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry prohibiting Louisiana schools from requiring Covid shots and requiring that they inform parents of their rights to an exemption, said she has “no plans to change what we’ve done.”

“We have everybody on the same page,” she said. “We're requiring the parent to get your child vaccinated. But we're telling you that if it goes against anything in your line of thinking, that you have the opportunity to exempt your child.”Louisiana already had one of the nation’s most lenient school vaccine policies, issuing exemptions on the request of a parent for any reason. No school system in the country requires Covid vaccination.

Alabama state Rep. Mack Butler recently reintroduced a bill to allow parents requesting a religious exemption to send a note to a child’s school instead of submitting a written objection and then getting approval from local health officials. Still, the Republican hasn’t heard of any initiative that would eliminate requirements altogether, and he called vaccines for mumps, measles and polio “tried and tested.”

Health care experts remain nervous about the potential for GOP leaders to bypass the legislature and act on their own to weaken vaccine policy. In Louisiana, Surgeon General Ralph Abraham last year directed the health department to no longer promote mass vaccinations. And while West Virginia lawmakers voted down a religious exemption bill in March, Gov. Patrick Morrisey signed an executive order that allows families to bypass vaccine requirements for religious reasons just hours after taking office this year. West Virginia is now mired in legal battles surrounding the implications of the governor’s order and the state Board of Education’s decision to continue requiring vaccines as the legal process plays out.

Rising anti-vaccine sentiment puts more pressure on state health officials to form a bulwark against efforts to chip away mandates, like in Mississippi, where its medical leadership has been steadfast.

“We have a really strong, educated legislature that values evidence-based medicine, and they've seen the importance of vaccines in preventing unnecessary deaths,” said Katherine Pannel, president of the Mississippi State Medical Association, a professional society for doctors. “They have been really valuable. So when any legislation to weaken the vaccine legislation has come up, they have been on target and have killed any kind of legislation.”

Florida is bound to face legal challenges that could slow or prohibit any repeal from going into effect, said James Hodge, an Arizona State University professor who specializes in vaccine law.

“We're in a state of flux with Florida,” Hodge said. “We're watching very carefully what and how far they go with this legally.”

Florida health care advocates intend to mount an aggressive campaign in opposition – and hope to send a warning about extreme political and health risks to other red states.

“I sincerely hope that other states don't do this. We're seeing at the national level an immense threat to the nation's vaccine policy,” said Northe Saunders, president of American Families for Vaccines, an advocacy group that promotes immunization. “Any erosion at any level of government is going to put kids at risk and they're going to get sick and unfortunately, people are going to die.”

© Francis Chung/POLITICO